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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231025
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
625 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND DECREASE CLOUDS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING ADJUSTMENT TO SKY GRIDS AND WINDS. LARGER BREAKS ON
SAT PIX ACROSS EASTERN OHIO TO THE WV PANHANDLE AND HAVE BEGUN THE
CLEARING PROCESS A BIT EARLIER THOSE AREAS. ALSO ADJUSTED WINDS TO
DIMINISH MORE QUICKLY TOWARD SUNSET. PREVIOUS BELOW.


BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS MORNING WITH
CLEARING WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
FARTHER OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE RIDGES UNTIL
LATE DAY. TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WELL INTO THE 30S. REGION HAS PAST DATES
FOR ANY FROST OR FREEZE PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND A BIT MILDER
TEMPERATURES. FOR THE WEEKEND A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL
QUICKLY CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. DRY AND
BREEZY SUNDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING WL ADVN EWD ACRS THE RGN INTO ERLY NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN
THE FCST. MDLS DIFFER ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A MID WK TROF. GENLY
SIDED CLOSE TO A WEAKER ENSEMBLE/WPC SOLN...KEEPING LOW SHWR CHCS
MID WK. WRM ADVCTN IS EXPD TO BRING ABV SEASONAL AVG TEMPS ERLY NXT
WK...WITH A RTN TO SEASONABLY COOL NMBRS AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE MID
WK TROF.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR SC...WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND ISOLD IFR...WL CONT IN N FLOW
ARND E COAST LOW PRES. THE CIGS SHOULD GRDLY ERODE LTR THIS MRNG
INTO ERLY AFTN AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN AS THE LOW DRIFTS
NE...RTNG VFR CONDS TO THE RGN.

.AVIATION /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PTCHY MVFR IN BR IS PSBL ERLY FRI MRNG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230944
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
544 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND DECREASE CLOUDS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING ADJUSTMENT TO SKY GRIDS AND WINDS. LARGER BREAKS ON
SAT PIX ACROSS EASTERN OHIO TO THE WV PANHANDLE AND HAVE BEGUN THE
CLEARING PROCESS A BIT EARLIER THOSE AREAS. ALSO ADJUSTED WINDS TO
DIMINISH MORE QUICKLY TOWARD SUNSET. PREVIOUS BELOW.


BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS MORNING WITH
CLEARING WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
FARTHER OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE RIDGES UNTIL
LATE DAY. TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WELL INTO THE 30S. REGION HAS PAST DATES
FOR ANY FROST OR FREEZE PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND A BIT MILDER
TEMPERATURES. FOR THE WEEKEND A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL
QUICKLY CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. DRY AND
BREEZY SUNDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING WL ADVN EWD ACRS THE RGN INTO ERLY NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN
THE FCST. MDLS DIFFER ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A MID WK TROF. GENLY
SIDED CLOSE TO A WEAKER ENSEMBLE/WPC SOLN...KEEPING LOW SHWR CHCS
MID WK. WRM ADVCTN IS EXPD TO BRING ABV SEASONAL AVG TEMPS ERLY NXT
WK...WITH A RTN TO SEASONABLY COOL NMBRS AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE MID
WK TROF.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR SC...WITH AREAS OF MVFR SC...WL CONT IN N FLOW ARND E COAST LOW
PRES. THE CIGS SHOULD GRDLY ERODE LTR THIS MRNG AS DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO MOVE IN AS THE LOW DRIFTS NE...RTNG VFR CONDS TO THE RGN.

.AVIATION /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230944
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
544 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND DECREASE CLOUDS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING ADJUSTMENT TO SKY GRIDS AND WINDS. LARGER BREAKS ON
SAT PIX ACROSS EASTERN OHIO TO THE WV PANHANDLE AND HAVE BEGUN THE
CLEARING PROCESS A BIT EARLIER THOSE AREAS. ALSO ADJUSTED WINDS TO
DIMINISH MORE QUICKLY TOWARD SUNSET. PREVIOUS BELOW.


BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS MORNING WITH
CLEARING WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
FARTHER OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE RIDGES UNTIL
LATE DAY. TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WELL INTO THE 30S. REGION HAS PAST DATES
FOR ANY FROST OR FREEZE PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND A BIT MILDER
TEMPERATURES. FOR THE WEEKEND A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL
QUICKLY CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. DRY AND
BREEZY SUNDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING WL ADVN EWD ACRS THE RGN INTO ERLY NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN
THE FCST. MDLS DIFFER ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A MID WK TROF. GENLY
SIDED CLOSE TO A WEAKER ENSEMBLE/WPC SOLN...KEEPING LOW SHWR CHCS
MID WK. WRM ADVCTN IS EXPD TO BRING ABV SEASONAL AVG TEMPS ERLY NXT
WK...WITH A RTN TO SEASONABLY COOL NMBRS AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE MID
WK TROF.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR SC...WITH AREAS OF MVFR SC...WL CONT IN N FLOW ARND E COAST LOW
PRES. THE CIGS SHOULD GRDLY ERODE LTR THIS MRNG AS DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO MOVE IN AS THE LOW DRIFTS NE...RTNG VFR CONDS TO THE RGN.

.AVIATION /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230714
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
314 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND DECREASE CLOUDS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS MORNING WITH
CLEARING WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
FARTHER OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE RIDGES UNTIL
LATE DAY. TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WELL INTO THE 30S. REGION HAS PAST DATES
FOR ANY FROST OR FREEZE PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND A BIT MILDER
TEMPERATURES. FOR THE WEEKEND A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL
QUICKLY CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. DRY AND
BREEZY SUNDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING WL ADVN EWD ACRS THE RGN INTO ERLY NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN
THE FCST. MDLS DIFFER ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A MID WK TROF. GENLY
SIDED CLOSE TO A WEAKER ENSEMBLE/WPC SOLN...KEEPING LOW SHWR CHCS
MID WK. WRM ADVCTN IS EXPD TO BRING ABV SEASONAL AVG TEMPS ERLY NXT
WK...WITH A RTN TO SEASONABLY COOL NMBRS AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE MID
WK TROF.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR SC...WITH AREAS OF MVFR SC...WL CONT IN N FLOW ARND E COAST LOW
PRES. THE CIGS SHOULD GRDLY ERODE LTR THIS MRNG AS DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO MOVE IN AS THE LOW DRIFTS NE...RTNG VFR CONDS TO THE RGN.

.AVIATION /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230416
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1216 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...ALLOWING A HIGH
TO BUILD IN WITH DRY AND MILDER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A FEW HOLES IN OVERCAST BUT BASICALLY STRATUS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY AS CLOSED LOW CONTINUES
TO SPIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EDGE EAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ERODING CLOUDS IN
THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SKIES TO BEGIN TO CLEAR WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES STEADY OVERNIGHT IN THE 40S AND
UPPER 30S...RECOVERING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PUSH
ACROSS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ON FRIDAY.

MODELS THEN INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY.  AFTER DRY WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT...HAVE
RE-INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR SC WL CONT IN N FLOW ARND E COAST LOW PRES. THE CIGS
SHOULD GRDLY ERODE LTR THIS MRNG AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN AS
THE LOW DRIFTS NE...RTNG VFR CONDS TO THE RGN.

.AVIATION /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$














000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230416
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1216 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...ALLOWING A HIGH
TO BUILD IN WITH DRY AND MILDER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A FEW HOLES IN OVERCAST BUT BASICALLY STRATUS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY AS CLOSED LOW CONTINUES
TO SPIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EDGE EAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ERODING CLOUDS IN
THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SKIES TO BEGIN TO CLEAR WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES STEADY OVERNIGHT IN THE 40S AND
UPPER 30S...RECOVERING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PUSH
ACROSS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ON FRIDAY.

MODELS THEN INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY.  AFTER DRY WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT...HAVE
RE-INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR SC WL CONT IN N FLOW ARND E COAST LOW PRES. THE CIGS
SHOULD GRDLY ERODE LTR THIS MRNG AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN AS
THE LOW DRIFTS NE...RTNG VFR CONDS TO THE RGN.

.AVIATION /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$














000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230154 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
954 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...ALLOWING A HIGH TO
BUILD IN...RESULTING IN DRY AND WARM WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.  A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
10PM UPDATE...STILL WRESTLING WITH CLOUD COVER. LARGE HOLE HAS
DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF OHIO/WPA. HOWEVER THIS HAS CLOSED BACK
IN QUICKLY TO THE NORTH. WILL STILL CONTINUE WITH A CLOUDY
FORECAST OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

UPPER LOW...CENTERED OFF THE DELMARVA COAST...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES AWAY...MODELS INDICATE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN.

AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS DRY BEFORE SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.

USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PUSH
ACROSS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ON FRIDAY.

MODELS THEN INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY.  AFTER DRY WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT...HAVE
RE-INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT UNDER CONTINUED
CYCLONIC FLOW. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
12Z THURSDAY...AFTER WHICH VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW SITES SCATTERING OUT EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED AS
DRY AIR TRIES TO INTRUDE FROM THE NORTH...BUT FEEL THAT CLOUDS
WILL HOLD ON TOUGH.  N/NW WINDS WILL SLACKEN OFF THIS EVENING.

.AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230154 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
954 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...ALLOWING A HIGH TO
BUILD IN...RESULTING IN DRY AND WARM WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.  A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
10PM UPDATE...STILL WRESTLING WITH CLOUD COVER. LARGE HOLE HAS
DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF OHIO/WPA. HOWEVER THIS HAS CLOSED BACK
IN QUICKLY TO THE NORTH. WILL STILL CONTINUE WITH A CLOUDY
FORECAST OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

UPPER LOW...CENTERED OFF THE DELMARVA COAST...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES AWAY...MODELS INDICATE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN.

AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS DRY BEFORE SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.

USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PUSH
ACROSS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ON FRIDAY.

MODELS THEN INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY.  AFTER DRY WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT...HAVE
RE-INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT UNDER CONTINUED
CYCLONIC FLOW. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
12Z THURSDAY...AFTER WHICH VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW SITES SCATTERING OUT EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED AS
DRY AIR TRIES TO INTRUDE FROM THE NORTH...BUT FEEL THAT CLOUDS
WILL HOLD ON TOUGH.  N/NW WINDS WILL SLACKEN OFF THIS EVENING.

.AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 222332
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
732 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...ALLOWING A HIGH TO
BUILD IN...RESULTING IN DRY AND WARM WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.  A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
730PM UPDATE...CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE FORECAST HEADACHE.
LATEST SAT PICS ARE SHOWING DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO INTRUDE IN THE
STRATOCU DECK IN NW PA AND NE OHIO. LATEST HIRES DATA IS
PRESENTING AN EXPANSION OF THIS DRY AIR OVERNIGHT. HAVING A HARD
TIME BELIEVING THIS AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO KEEP A
SATURATED LAYER AND CYCLONIC ROTATION CONTINUES IN THE MID AND
LOWER LEVELS OVERNIGHT. HAVE DECREASED CLOUDS JUST A BIT... BUT DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH IMPROVEMENT UNTIL LATER THU MORNING. TEMPS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED WITH LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

UPPER LOW...CENTERED OFF THE DELMARVA COAST...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES AWAY...MODELS INDICATE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN.

AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS DRY BEFORE SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.

USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PUSH
ACROSS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ON FRIDAY.

MODELS THEN INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY.  AFTER DRY WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT...HAVE
RE-INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT UNDER CONTINUED
CYCLONIC FLOW. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
12Z THURSDAY...AFTER WHICH VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW SITES SCATTERING OUT EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED AS
DRY AIR TRIES TO INTRUDE FROM THE NORTH...BUT FEEL THAT CLOUDS
WILL HOLD ON TOUGH.  N/NW WINDS WILL SLACKEN OFF THIS EVENING.

.AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 222322 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
722 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...ALLOWING A HIGH TO
BUILD IN...RESULTING IN DRY AND WARM WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.  A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
730PM UPDATE...CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE FORECAST HEADACHE.
LATEST SAT PICS ARE SHOWING DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO INTRUDE IN THE
STRATOCU DECK IN NW PA AND NE OHIO. LATEST HIRES DATA IS
PRESENTING AN EXPANSION OF THIS DRY AIR OVERNIGHT. HAVING A HARD
TIME BELIEVING THIS AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO KEEP A
SATURATED LAYER AND CYCLONIC ROTATION CONTINUES IN THE MID AND
LOWER LEVELS OVERNIGHT. HAVE DECREASED CLOUDS JUST A BIT... BUT DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH IMPROVEMENT UNTIL LATER THU MORNING. TEMPS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED WITH LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

UPPER LOW...CENTERED OFF THE DELMARVA COAST...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES AWAY...MODELS INDICATE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN.

AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS DRY BEFORE SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.

USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PUSH
ACROSS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ON FRIDAY.

MODELS THEN INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY.  AFTER DRY WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT...HAVE
RE-INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TNGT WITH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. DRY AIR SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO BREAK
UP FROM THE NORTH AND WEST AFT 04Z.  CLEARING AT ZZV MAY BE EARLY
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...WINDS MAY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY FG AT A MINIMUM
AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF ZZV TAF FOR NOW.

.AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221818
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
220 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...ALLOWING A HIGH TO
BUILD IN...RESULTING IN DRY AND WARM WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.  A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW...CENTERED OFF THE DELMARVA COAST...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES AWAY...MODELS INDICATE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN.

AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS DRY BEFORE SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.

USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PUSH
ACROSS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ON FRIDAY.

MODELS THEN INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY.  AFTER DRY WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT...HAVE
RE-INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR
SATURDAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TNGT WITH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. DRY AIR SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO BREAK
UP FROM THE NORTH AND WEST AFT 04Z.  CLEARING AT ZZV MAY BE EARLY
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...WINDS MAY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY FG AT A MINIMUM
AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF ZZV TAF FOR NOW.

.AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

JSH











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221738
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
137 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...ALLOWING A HIGH TO
BUILD IN...RESULTING IN DRY AND WARM WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.  A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE NR TERM GRIDS BASED ON OBS AND RADAR FOR THE
PRE DAWN UPDT.

PREVIOUS DISC...MATURATION OF LOW PRES IS STILL MDL PROGGED OVR
THE COAST BY DAYS END AND OVRALL SBSDNC WL GRADUALLY SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVR MOST OF THE UPR OH VALLEY AREA...ALTHOUGH
SLGT SHWR CHCS MAY LINGER INTO EVE OVR THE RIDGES WITH THE SHARPER
UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE.

COLD TEMPS WL LINGER THOUGH AS COLD...TO NEUTRAL ADVCTN CONTS ON
THE REAR FLANK OF THE EXITING LOW. TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES UNDR THE
AVGS WERE MASSAGED USING SREF MEANS AND BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHRTWV RIDGING IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS RMNG PCPN CHCS TNGT...AND
INTO FRIDAY.

THEREAFTER...NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF HAVE CONSISTENTLY DEPICTED THE
APCH...AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHRTWV IN NW FLOW ON FRIDAY. GIVEN
DEPICTIONS OF A LTD MID LVL MSTR FIELD...CAPPED LOW LVLS AFTR MID
LVL WARMING...AND AN ABSENT PCPN SPPRTG OMEGA FIELD...HAVE DECIDED
TO ELIMINATE THE ALREADY SLGT POP FORECAST IN FAVOR A STRENGTHENING
DRY TREND.

ANOTHER SUCH DISTURBANCE IS PROJECTED FOR A SATURDAY CROSSING...BUT
THE RAIN POTENTIAL LKS EQUALLY SLIM GIVEN SIMILIAR LIMITATIONS AS
FRIDAY AS WELL AS A MORE NWD TRACK OF THE LOW CNTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS FEATURE MODERATION TWD THE SEASONAL AVGS...FORECAST
FOR WAS TWEAKED AGAIN USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS AND SREF MEANS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NTO TNGT WITH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. DRY AIR SHOULD ALLIOW CLOUDS TO BREAK
UP FROM THE NORTH AND WEST AFT 04Z.  CLEARING AT ZZV MAY BE EARLY
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...WINDS MAY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY FG AT A MINIMUM
AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF ZZV TAF FOR NOW.

.AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

JSH/RLX









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221738
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
137 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...ALLOWING A HIGH TO
BUILD IN...RESULTING IN DRY AND WARM WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.  A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE NR TERM GRIDS BASED ON OBS AND RADAR FOR THE
PRE DAWN UPDT.

PREVIOUS DISC...MATURATION OF LOW PRES IS STILL MDL PROGGED OVR
THE COAST BY DAYS END AND OVRALL SBSDNC WL GRADUALLY SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVR MOST OF THE UPR OH VALLEY AREA...ALTHOUGH
SLGT SHWR CHCS MAY LINGER INTO EVE OVR THE RIDGES WITH THE SHARPER
UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE.

COLD TEMPS WL LINGER THOUGH AS COLD...TO NEUTRAL ADVCTN CONTS ON
THE REAR FLANK OF THE EXITING LOW. TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES UNDR THE
AVGS WERE MASSAGED USING SREF MEANS AND BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHRTWV RIDGING IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS RMNG PCPN CHCS TNGT...AND
INTO FRIDAY.

THEREAFTER...NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF HAVE CONSISTENTLY DEPICTED THE
APCH...AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHRTWV IN NW FLOW ON FRIDAY. GIVEN
DEPICTIONS OF A LTD MID LVL MSTR FIELD...CAPPED LOW LVLS AFTR MID
LVL WARMING...AND AN ABSENT PCPN SPPRTG OMEGA FIELD...HAVE DECIDED
TO ELIMINATE THE ALREADY SLGT POP FORECAST IN FAVOR A STRENGTHENING
DRY TREND.

ANOTHER SUCH DISTURBANCE IS PROJECTED FOR A SATURDAY CROSSING...BUT
THE RAIN POTENTIAL LKS EQUALLY SLIM GIVEN SIMILIAR LIMITATIONS AS
FRIDAY AS WELL AS A MORE NWD TRACK OF THE LOW CNTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS FEATURE MODERATION TWD THE SEASONAL AVGS...FORECAST
FOR WAS TWEAKED AGAIN USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS AND SREF MEANS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NTO TNGT WITH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. DRY AIR SHOULD ALLIOW CLOUDS TO BREAK
UP FROM THE NORTH AND WEST AFT 04Z.  CLEARING AT ZZV MAY BE EARLY
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...WINDS MAY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY FG AT A MINIMUM
AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF ZZV TAF FOR NOW.

.AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

JSH/RLX









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221055
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
655 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE
EXITS EASTWARD. A STRENGTHENING HIGH WILL DRY AND WARM THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE NR TERM GRIDS BASED ON OBS AND RADAR FOR THE
PRE DAWN UPDT.

PREVIOUS DISC...MATURATION OF LOW PRES IS STILL MDL PROGGED OVR
THE COAST BY DAYS END AND OVRALL SBSDNC WL GRADUALLY SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVR MOST OF THE UPR OH VALLEY AREA...ALTHOUGH
SLGT SHWR CHCS MAY LINGER INTO EVE OVR THE RIDGES WITH THE SHARPER
UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE.

COLD TEMPS WL LINGER THOUGH AS COLD...TO NEUTRAL ADVCTN CONTS ON
THE REAR FLANK OF THE EXITING LOW. TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES UNDR THE
AVGS WERE MASSAGED USING SREF MEANS AND BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHRTWV RIDGING IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS RMNG PCPN CHCS TNGT...AND
INTO FRIDAY.

THEREAFTER...NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF HAVE CONSISTENTLY DEPICTED THE
APCH...AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHRTWV IN NW FLOW ON FRIDAY. GIVEN
DEPICTIONS OF A LTD MID LVL MSTR FIELD...CAPPED LOW LVLS AFTR MID
LVL WARMING...AND AN ABSENT PCPN SPPRTG OMEGA FIELD...HAVE DECIDED
TO ELIMINATE THE ALREADY SLGT POP FORECAST IN FAVOR A STRENGTHENING
DRY TREND.

ANOTHER SUCH DISTURBANCE IS PROJECTED FOR A SATURDAY CROSSING...BUT
THE RAIN POTENTIAL LKS EQUALLY SLIM GIVEN SIMILIAR LIMITATIONS AS
FRIDAY AS WELL AS A MORE NWD TRACK OF THE LOW CNTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS FEATURE MODERATION TWD THE SEASONAL AVGS...FORECAST
FOR WAS TWEAKED AGAIN USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS AND SREF MEANS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WDSPRD MVFR CONDS ARE EXPD INTO TNGT WITH LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE
UNDER AN UPR LOW ACRS THE RGN. ENOUGH DRY AIR SHOULD MOVE IN THIS
EVE TO ALLOW SOME CLRG W AT ZZV...AND OVRNGT ACRS AREAS FM PIT W.
CLRG AT ZZV MAY BE ERLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FG TO DVLP
LT TNGT.

.AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE EXPD INTO THU MRNG BEFORE THE UPR LOW EXITS THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220725
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
325 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE
EXITS EASTWARD. A STRENGTHENING HIGH WILL DRY AND WARM THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MATURATION OF LOW PRES IS STILL MDL PROGGED OVR THE COAST BY DAYS
END AND OVRALL SBSDNC WL GRADUALLY SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
OVR MOST OF THE UPR OH VALLEY AREA...ALTHOUGH SLGT SHWR CHCS MAY
LINGER INTO EVE OVR THE RIDGES WITH THE SHARPER UPSLOPE
ASSISTANCE.

COLD TEMPS WL LINGER THOUGH AS COLD...TO NEUTRAL ADVCTN CONTS ON
THE REAR FLANK OF THE EXITING LOW. TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES UNDR THE
AVGS WERE MASSAGED USING SREF MEANS AND BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHRTWV RIDGING IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS RMNG PCPN CHCS TNGT...AND
INTO FRIDAY.

THEREAFTER...NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF HAVE CONSISTENTLY DEPICTED THE
APCH...AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHRTWV IN NW FLOW ON FRIDAY. GIVEN
DEPICTIONS OF A LTD MID LVL MSTR FIELD...CAPPED LOW LVLS AFTR MID
LVL WARMING...AND AN ABSENT PCPN SPPRTG OMEGA FIELD...HAVE DECIDED
TO ELIMINATE THE ALREADY SLGT POP FORECAST IN FAVOR A STRENGTHENING
DRY TREND.

ANOTHER SUCH DISTURBANCE IS PROJECTED FOR A SATURDAY CROSSING...BUT
THE RAIN POTENTIAL LKS EQUALLY SLIM GIVEN SIMILIAR LIMITATIONS AS
FRIDAY AS WELL AS A MORE NWD TRACK OF THE LOW CNTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS FEATURE MODERATION TWD THE SEASONAL AVGS...FORECAST
FOR WAS TWEAKED AGAIN USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS AND SREF MEANS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WDSPRD IFR CONDS AND SCT SHWRS ARE EXPD THRU ERLY THIS MRNG WITH
LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE UNDER AN UPR LOW ACRS THE RGN. WHILE CONDS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR LTR IN THE MRNG...THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPR
LOW WL KEEP MVFR CONDS INTO TNGT.

.AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE EXPD INTO THU MRNG BEFORE THE UPR LOW EXITS THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220422 CCA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1221 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE
EXITS EASTWARD. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRY AND WARM THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE POST MIDNGT UPDATE AS THE EVE SHIFT
EFFECTIVELY CAPTURED THE OVRNGT TRENDS WITH UPR LOW PRES BGNG TO
WOBBLE EWD.

MATURATION OF THAT LOW IS STILL MDL PROGGED OVR THE COAST BY DAYS
END AND OVRALL SBSDNC WL SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVR MOST OF
THE UPR OH VALLEY AREA...ALTHOUGH SLGT SHWR CHCS WL LINGER OVR
THE RIDGES WITH THE SHARPER UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHRTWV RIDGING IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS RMNG PCPN CHCS TNGT...AND
INTO FRIDAY.

THEREAFTER...NAM AND GFS HAVE CONSISTENTLY DEPICTED THE APCH...AND
PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHRTWV IN NW FLOW ON FRIDAY. GIVEN DEPICTIONS OF
A LTD MID LVL MSTR FIELD...CAPPED LOW LVLS AFTR MID LVL WARMING...AND
AN ABSENT PCPN SPPRTG OMEGA FIELD...HAVE DECIDED TO PERSIST WITH
LAST NGTS DRY FORECAST.

ANOTHER SUCH DISTURBANCE IS PROJECTED FOR A SATURDAY CROSSING...BUT
SHWR POTENTIAL LKS EQUALLY SLIM GIVEN SIMILIAR LIMITATIONS AS
FRIDAY AS WELL AS A MORE NWD TRACK OF THE LOW CNTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS FEATURE MODERATION TWD THE SEASONAL AVGS...FORECAST
FOR WAS TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS AND SREF MEANS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WDSPRD IFR CONDS AND SCT SHWRS ARE EXPD THRU ERLY THIS MRNG WITH
LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE UNDER AN UPR LOW ACRS THE RGN. WHILE CONDS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR LTR IN THE MRNG...THE PROXIMATY OF THE UPR
LOW WL KEEP MVFR CONDS INTO TNGT.

.AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE EXPD INTO THU MRNG BEFORE THE UPR LOW EXITS THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220422 CCA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1221 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE
EXITS EASTWARD. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRY AND WARM THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE POST MIDNGT UPDATE AS THE EVE SHIFT
EFFECTIVELY CAPTURED THE OVRNGT TRENDS WITH UPR LOW PRES BGNG TO
WOBBLE EWD.

MATURATION OF THAT LOW IS STILL MDL PROGGED OVR THE COAST BY DAYS
END AND OVRALL SBSDNC WL SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVR MOST OF
THE UPR OH VALLEY AREA...ALTHOUGH SLGT SHWR CHCS WL LINGER OVR
THE RIDGES WITH THE SHARPER UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHRTWV RIDGING IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS RMNG PCPN CHCS TNGT...AND
INTO FRIDAY.

THEREAFTER...NAM AND GFS HAVE CONSISTENTLY DEPICTED THE APCH...AND
PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHRTWV IN NW FLOW ON FRIDAY. GIVEN DEPICTIONS OF
A LTD MID LVL MSTR FIELD...CAPPED LOW LVLS AFTR MID LVL WARMING...AND
AN ABSENT PCPN SPPRTG OMEGA FIELD...HAVE DECIDED TO PERSIST WITH
LAST NGTS DRY FORECAST.

ANOTHER SUCH DISTURBANCE IS PROJECTED FOR A SATURDAY CROSSING...BUT
SHWR POTENTIAL LKS EQUALLY SLIM GIVEN SIMILIAR LIMITATIONS AS
FRIDAY AS WELL AS A MORE NWD TRACK OF THE LOW CNTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS FEATURE MODERATION TWD THE SEASONAL AVGS...FORECAST
FOR WAS TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS AND SREF MEANS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WDSPRD IFR CONDS AND SCT SHWRS ARE EXPD THRU ERLY THIS MRNG WITH
LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE UNDER AN UPR LOW ACRS THE RGN. WHILE CONDS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR LTR IN THE MRNG...THE PROXIMATY OF THE UPR
LOW WL KEEP MVFR CONDS INTO TNGT.

.AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE EXPD INTO THU MRNG BEFORE THE UPR LOW EXITS THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220416
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1216 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE
EXITS EASTWARD. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRY AND WARM THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION AFTER A SLIGHT FRIDAY SHOWER CHANCE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE POST MIDNGT UPDATE AS THE EVE SHIFT
EFFECTIVELY CAPTURED THE OVRNGT TRENDS WITH UPR LOW PRES BGNG TO
WOBBLE EWD.

MATURATION OF THAT LOW IS STILL MDL PROGGED OVR THE COAST BY DAYS
END AND OVRALL SBSDNC WL SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVR MOST OF
THE UPR OH VALLEY AREA...ALTHOUGH SLGT SHWR CHCS WL LINGER OVR
THE RIDGES WITH THE SHARPER UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHRTWV RIDGING IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS RMNG PCPN CHCS TNGT...AND
INTO FRIDAY.

THEREAFTER...NAM AND GFS HAVE CONSISTENTLY DEPICTED THE APCH...AND
PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHRTWV IN NW FLOW ON FRIDAY. GIVEN DEPICTIONS OF
A LTD MID LVL MSTR FIELD...CAPPED LOW LVLS AFTR MID LVL WARMING...AND
AN ABSENT PCPN SPPRTG OMEGA FIELD...HAVE DECIDED TO PERSIST WITH
LAST NGTS DRY FORECAST.

ANOTHER SUCH DISTURBANCE IS PROJECTED FOR A SATURDAY CROSSING...BUT
SHWR POTENTIAL LKS EQUALLY SLIM GIVEN SIMILIAR LIMITATIONS AS
FRIDAY AS WELL AS A MORE NWD TRACK OF THE LOW CNTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS FEATURE MODERATION TWD THE SEASONAL AVGS...FORECAST
FOR WAS TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS AND SREF MEANS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WDSPRD IFR CONDS AND SCT SHWRS ARE EXPD THRU ERLY THIS MRNG WITH
LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE UNDER AN UPR LOW ACRS THE RGN. WHILE CONDS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR LTR IN THE MRNG...THE PROXIMATY OF THE UPR
LOW WL KEEP MVFR CONDS INTO TNGT.

.AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE EXPD INTO THU MRNG BEFORE THE UPR LOW EXITS THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220124 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
924 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
930PM UPDATE...CONTINUE TO RELY ON LATEST SAT/RADAR IMAGES AND
LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN TO PUT TOGETHER POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
SHOWER COVERAGE HAS BEEN SLOWLY DECREASING AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHWARD
OVER EASTERN THIRD OF MY FA. LOOKS TO BE A SMALL UPPER LEVEL WAVE
THAT IS DRIVING THE PRECIPITATION. TEMPS HAVE ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED
WITH LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION PRESENT ON CURRENT RADAR AS A DECAYING LOW-
TOPPED MCV HAS STALLED NEAR JEFFERSON COUNTY PA. DESPITE ENHANCED
RADAR REFLECTIVITIES ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE CIRCULATION...THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL REPORTS RECEIVED HAVE BEEN AROUND 1/3" PER HR.
EXAMINATION OF THE INDIVIDUAL RADAR SLICES REVEALS THAT A GOOD
PORTION OF THE ENHANCEMENT IS DUE TO BRIGHT BANDING...WITH
FREEZING LEVELS RIGHT AROUND 7KFT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SW TROF SWINGING SOUTH
THROUGH OHIO WITH AN ATTENDANT VORT MAX THROUGH SRN OHIO. THIS
GENERATED LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE
ERIE THAT HAVE SINCE DE-TATCHED FROM THE LAKE AND HAVE CONGEALED WITH
THE BACK EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CIRCULATION. THIS VORT WILL
EFFECTIVELY CUT-OFF THE UPPER LOW AND ALLOW IT TO DRIFT RIGHT
OVERTOP OF US. WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LLVL MOISTURE AND THE COLD
POOL ALOFT...FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF LAKE-ENHANCED AXIS OF RAIN SHOWERS.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA...ENHANCING NRLY
FLOW ALOFT WRAPPING MOISTURE BACK AROUND THE SYSTEM. THE LLVL FLOW
WILL REMAIN NWRLY ENABLING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT...THUS WILL
CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS IN THE SE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE...MULTIPLE
WEAK MID-LEVEL VORTS ARE PROGGED TO SWING AROUND THE PARENT
LOW...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. KEEPING CHC POPS IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH WEDS
MORNING. WITH TEMPS MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY...LARGE MODIFICATIONS WERE NOT NECESSARY.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NORTHWESTERLY AND NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL
SHEAR SLOWLY INCREASES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR UNSTABLE UPSLOPE
FLOW SHOWERS TO SLOWLY WIND DOWN DURING THE PERIOD. SOME CLEARING
SHOULD START TO WORK ITS WAY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA AS
LAYER MOISTURE SLOWLY PEELS OFF TO THE EAST AS WELL.

YESTERDAY`S GFS...AND NOW TODAY`S ECMWF AND GFS BOTH INDICATE A
SOMEWHAT ANOMALOUS LOOKING SHORT WAVE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD DOWN
THE FRONT FLANK OF THE UPPER RIDGE THAT BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA BY
LATE IN THE WEEK. DEEP MOISTURE DOES NO SEEM PARTICULARLY EVIDENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THE DEPTH OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT PARTICULARLY
WELL AGREED UPON. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE GFS HAS BEEN A BIT MORE
CONSISTENT WITH THE FEATURE IN ITS RUNS...TIMING AND PLACEMENT
CLOSER TO THE GFS WAS FAVORED...WHICH WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE WEEK...AND A VERY VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A FLEETING SPRINKLE. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
THEIR SLOW TREND TO CREEP BACK TOWARD NORMAL. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE REGION SOCKED IN WITH
CLOUDS THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SLOWLY ROTATES ACROSS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MANY OF THESE WILL
CONCENTRATE ALONG THE RIDGES. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
AREAWIDE INTO MIDMORNING ON WEDNESDAY. CIGS COULD IMPROVE TO VFR
BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN PA. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DUE TO THE LARGE AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...PERIODIC
RSTRNS COULD LAST THROUGH THURS IN SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 212339
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
739 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
630PM UPDATE...POPS WERE MODIFIED WITH A COMBINATION OF LATEST
RADAR PICS AND INCOMING MODEL GUIDANCE. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT TOWARD THE SOUTH WITH SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND
50H LOW. TEMPS HAVE ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED WITH LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION PRESENT ON CURRENT RADAR AS A DECAYING LOW-
TOPPED MCV HAS STALLED NEAR JEFFERSON COUNTY PA. DESPITE ENHANCED
RADAR REFLECTIVITIES ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE CIRCULATION...THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL REPORTS RECEIVED HAVE BEEN AROUND 1/3" PER HR.
EXAMINATION OF THE INDIVIDUAL RADAR SLICES REVEALS THAT A GOOD
PORTION OF THE ENHANCEMENT IS DUE TO BRIGHT BANDING...WITH
FREEZING LEVELS RIGHT AROUND 7KFT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SW TROF SWINGING SOUTH
THROUGH OHIO WITH AN ATTENDANT VORT MAX THROUGH SRN OHIO. THIS
GENERATED LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE
ERIE THAT HAVE SINCE DE-TATCHED FROM THE LAKE AND HAVE CONGEALED WITH
THE BACK EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CIRCULATION. THIS VORT WILL
EFFECTIVELY CUT-OFF THE UPPER LOW AND ALLOW IT TO DRIFT RIGHT
OVERTOP OF US. WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LLVL MOISTURE AND THE COLD
POOL ALOFT...FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF LAKE-ENHANCED AXIS OF RAIN SHOWERS.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA...ENHANCING NRLY
FLOW ALOFT WRAPPING MOISTURE BACK AROUND THE SYSTEM. THE LLVL FLOW
WILL REMAIN NWRLY ENABLING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT...THUS WILL
CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS IN THE SE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE...MULTIPLE
WEAK MID-LEVEL VORTS ARE PROGGED TO SWING AROUND THE PARENT
LOW...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. KEEPING CHC POPS IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH WEDS
MORNING. WITH TEMPS MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY...LARGE MODIFICATIONS WERE NOT NECESSARY.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NORTHWESTERLY AND NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL
SHEAR SLOWLY INCREASES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR UNSTABLE UPSLOPE
FLOW SHOWERS TO SLOWLY WIND DOWN DURING THE PERIOD. SOME CLEARING
SHOULD START TO WORK ITS WAY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA AS
LAYER MOISTURE SLOWLY PEELS OFF TO THE EAST AS WELL.

YESTERDAY`S GFS...AND NOW TODAY`S ECMWF AND GFS BOTH INDICATE A
SOMEWHAT ANOMALOUS LOOKING SHORT WAVE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD DOWN
THE FRONT FLANK OF THE UPPER RIDGE THAT BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA BY
LATE IN THE WEEK. DEEP MOISTURE DOES NO SEEM PARTICULARLY EVIDENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THE DEPTH OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT PARTICULARLY
WELL AGREED UPON. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE GFS HAS BEEN A BIT MORE
CONSISTENT WITH THE FEATURE IN ITS RUNS...TIMING AND PLACEMENT
CLOSER TO THE GFS WAS FAVORED...WHICH WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE WEEK...AND A VERY VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A FLEETING SPRINKLE. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
THEIR SLOW TREND TO CREEP BACK TOWARD NORMAL. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE REGION SOCKED IN WITH
CLOUDS THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SLOWLY ROTATES ACROSS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MANY OF THESE WILL
CONCENTRATE ALONG THE RIDGES. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
AREAWIDE INTO MIDMORNING ON WEDNESDAY. CIGS COULD IMPROVE TO VFR
BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN PA. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DUE TO THE LARGE AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...PERIODIC
RSTRNS COULD LAST THROUGH THURS IN SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 212225 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
625 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
630PM UPDATE...POPS WERE MODIFIED WITH A COMBINATION OF LATEST
RADAR PICS AND INCOMING MODEL GUIDANCE. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT TOWARD THE SOUTH WITH SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND
50H LOW. TEMPS HAVE ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED WITH LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION PRESENT ON CURRENT RADAR AS A DECAYING LOW-
TOPPED MCV HAS STALLED NEAR JEFFERSON COUNTY PA. DESPITE ENHANCED
RADAR REFLECTIVITIES ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE CIRCULATION...THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL REPORTS RECEIVED HAVE BEEN AROUND 1/3" PER HR.
EXAMINATION OF THE INDIVIDUAL RADAR SLICES REVEALS THAT A GOOD
PORTION OF THE ENHANCEMENT IS DUE TO BRIGHT BANDING...WITH
FREEZING LEVELS RIGHT AROUND 7KFT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SW TROF SWINGING SOUTH
THROUGH OHIO WITH AN ATTENDANT VORT MAX THROUGH SRN OHIO. THIS
GENERATED LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE
ERIE THAT HAVE SINCE DE-TATCHED FROM THE LAKE AND HAVE CONGEALED WITH
THE BACK EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CIRCULATION. THIS VORT WILL
EFFECTIVELY CUT-OFF THE UPPER LOW AND ALLOW IT TO DRIFT RIGHT
OVERTOP OF US. WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LLVL MOISTURE AND THE COLD
POOL ALOFT...FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF LAKE-ENHANCED AXIS OF RAIN SHOWERS.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA...ENHANCING NRLY
FLOW ALOFT WRAPPING MOISTURE BACK AROUND THE SYSTEM. THE LLVL FLOW
WILL REMAIN NWRLY ENABLING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT...THUS WILL
CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS IN THE SE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE...MULTIPLE
WEAK MID-LEVEL VORTS ARE PROGGED TO SWING AROUND THE PARENT
LOW...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. KEEPING CHC POPS IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH WEDS
MORNING. WITH TEMPS MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY...LARGE MODIFICATIONS WERE NOT NECESSARY.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NORTHWESTERLY AND NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL
SHEAR SLOWLY INCREASES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR UNSTABLE UPSLOPE
FLOW SHOWERS TO SLOWLY WIND DOWN DURING THE PERIOD. SOME CLEARING
SHOULD START TO WORK ITS WAY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA AS
LAYER MOISTURE SLOWLY PEELS OFF TO THE EAST AS WELL.

YESTERDAY`S GFS...AND NOW TODAY`S ECMWF AND GFS BOTH INDICATE A
SOMEWHAT ANOMALOUS LOOKING SHORT WAVE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD DOWN
THE FRONT FLANK OF THE UPPER RIDGE THAT BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA BY
LATE IN THE WEEK. DEEP MOISTURE DOES NO SEEM PARTICULARLY EVIDENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THE DEPTH OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT PARTICULARLY
WELL AGREED UPON. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE GFS HAS BEEN A BIT MORE
CONSISTENT WITH THE FEATURE IN ITS RUNS...TIMING AND PLACEMENT
CLOSER TO THE GFS WAS FAVORED...WHICH WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE WEEK...AND A VERY VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A FLEETING SPRINKLE. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
THEIR SLOW TREND TO CREEP BACK TOWARD NORMAL. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE AND VERY SLOW MOVING SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND ACROSS THE AREA OVER THROUGH WEDS. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FOUND PRIMARILY IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS WITH
AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD DECK AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS GENERATED...THUS MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE THROUGH MID-MORNING WEDS. AS OF
15Z MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
DIP AGAIN INTO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR TONIGHT WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF
LOW CIGS.
TAX

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DUE TO THE LARGE AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...PERIODIC
RSTRNS COULD LAST THROUGH THURS IN SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211929
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
329 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION PRESENT ON CURRENT RADAR AS A DECAYING LOW-
TOPPED MCV HAS STALLED NEAR JEFFERSON COUNTY PA. DESPITE ENHANCED
RADAR REFLECTIVITIES ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE CIRCULATION...THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL REPORTS RECEIVED HAVE BEEN AROUND 1/3" PER HR.
EXAMINATION OF THE INDIVIDUAL RADAR SLICES REVEALS THAT A GOOD
PORTION OF THE ENHANCEMENT IS DUE TO BRIGHT BANDING...WITH
FREEZING LEVELS RIGHT AROUND 7KFT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SW TROF SWINGING SOUTH
THROUGH OHIO WITH AN ATTENDANT VORT MAX THROUGH SRN OHIO. THIS
GENERATED LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE
ERIE THAT HAVE SINCE DE-TATCHED FROM THE LAKE AND HAVE CONGEALED WITH
THE BACK EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CIRCULATION. THIS VORT WILL
EFFECTIVELY CUT-OFF THE UPPER LOW AND ALLOW IT TO DRIFT RIGHT
OVERTOP OF US. WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LLVL MOISTURE AND THE COLD
POOL ALOFT...FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF LAKE-ENHANCED AXIS OF RAIN SHOWERS.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA...ENHANCING NRLY
FLOW ALOFT WRAPPING MOISTURE BACK AROUND THE SYSTEM. THE LLVL FLOW
WILL REMAIN NWRLY ENABLING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT...THUS WILL
CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS IN THE SE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE...MULTIPLE
WEAK MID-LEVEL VORTS ARE PROGGED TO SWING AROUND THE PARENT
LOW...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. KEEPING CHC POPS IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH WEDS
MORNING. WITH TEMPS MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY...LARGE MODIFICATIONS WERE NOT NECESSARY.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NORTHWESTERLY AND NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL
SHEAR SLOWLY INCREASES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR UNSTABLE UPSLOPE
FLOW SHOWERS TO SLOWLY WIND DOWN DURING THE PERIOD. SOME CLEARING
SHOULD START TO WORK ITS WAY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA AS
LAYER MOISTURE SLOWLY PEELS OFF TO THE EAST AS WELL.

YESTERDAY`S GFS...AND NOW TODAY`S ECMWF AND GFS BOTH INDICATE A
SOMEWHAT ANOMALOUS LOOKING SHORT WAVE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD DOWN
THE FRONT FLANK OF THE UPPER RIDGE THAT BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA BY
LATE IN THE WEEK. DEEP MOISTURE DOES NO SEEM PARTICULARLY EVIDENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THE DEPTH OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT PARTICULARLY
WELL AGREED UPON. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE GFS HAS BEEN A BIT MORE
CONSISTENT WITH THE FEATURE IN ITS RUNS...TIMING AND PLACEMENT
CLOSER TO THE GFS WAS FAVORED...WHICH WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE WEEK...AND A VERY VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A FLEETING SPRINKLE. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
THEIR SLOW TREND TO CREEP BACK TOWARD NORMAL. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE AND VERY SLOW MOVING SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND ACROSS THE AREA OVER THROUGH WEDS. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FOUND PRIMARILY IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS WITH
AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD DECK AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS GENERATED...THUS MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE THROUGH MID-MORNING WEDS. AS OF
15Z MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
DIP AGAIN INTO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR TONIGHT WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF
LOW CIGS.
TAX

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DUE TO THE LARGE AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...PERIODIC
RSTRNS COULD LAST THROUGH THURS IN SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211833
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
233 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION PRESENT ON CURRENT RADAR AS A DECAYING LOW-
TOPPED MCV HAS STALLED NEAR JEFFERSON COUNTY PA. DESPITE ENHANCED
RADAR REFLECTIVITIES ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE CIRCULATION...THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL REPORTS RECEIVED HAVE BEEN AROUND 1/3" PER HR.
EXAMINATION OF THE INDIVIDUAL RADAR SLICES REVEALS THAT A GOOD
PORTION OF THE ENHANCEMENT IS DUE TO BRIGHT BANDING...WITH
FREEZING LEVELS RIGHT AROUND 7KFT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SW TROF SWINGING SOUTH
THROUGH OHIO WITH AN ATTENDANT VORT MAX THROUGH SRN OHIO. THIS
GENERATED LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE
ERIE THAT HAVE SINCE DE-TATCHED FROM THE LAKE AND HAVE CONGEALED WITH
THE BACK EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CIRCULATION. THIS VORT WILL
EFFECTIVELY CUT-OFF THE UPPER LOW AND ALLOW IT TO DRIFT RIGHT
OVERTOP OF US. WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LLVL MOISTURE AND THE COLD
POOL ALOFT...FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF LAKE-ENHANCED AXIS OF RAIN SHOWERS.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA...ENHANCING NRLY
FLOW ALOFT WRAPPING MOISTURE BACK AROUND THE SYSTEM. THE LLVL FLOW
WILL REMAIN NWRLY ENABLING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT...THUS WILL
CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS IN THE SE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE...MULTIPLE
WEAK MID-LEVEL VORTS ARE PROGGED TO SWING AROUND THE PARENT
LOW...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. KEEPING CHC POPS IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH WEDS
MORNING. WITH TEMPS MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY...LARGE MODIFICATIONS WERE NOT NECESSARY.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD MID LVLS WL PERSIST OVR THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY DESPITE
THE LOW CNTR SHIFTING TWD THE COAST. DESPITE A CONSIDERABLE
REDUCTION IN POPS...SHWRS CHCS IN THE LOW THRESHOLD CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WERE MAINTAINED WITH EMPHASIS OVR THE UPSLOPE AREAS
ALNG THE I 80 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE RIDGES. THEREAFTER...WARMING
ALOFT/LOWERING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS ON
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SLGT TO CHC NMBRS WERE KEPT OVR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS.

TRAILING SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR A FRIDAY CROSSING OF THE REGION...BUT
SOME CLDS ARE ALL THAT IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE LACK A THERMAL TROF
ALOFT AS WELL AS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MSTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS WERE TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS TRENDS...BUT
LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE AND VERY SLOW MOVING SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND ACROSS THE AREA OVER THROUGH WEDS. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FOUND PRIMARILY IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS WITH
AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD DECK AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS GENERATED...THUS MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE THROUGH MID-MORNING WEDS. AS OF
15Z MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
DIP AGAIN INTO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR TONIGHT WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF
LOW CIGS.
TAX

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DUE TO THE LARGE AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...PERIODIC
RSTRNS COULD LAST THROUGH THURS IN SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211540
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1140 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION PRESENT ON CURRENT RADAR AS AN MCV FEATURE
IS VERY SLOWLY MOVING W TO E ACROSS THE NRN 1/3 OF THE CWA.
DESPITE ENHANCED RADAR REFLECTIVITIES ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE
MCV CIRCULATION...THE HIGHEST RAINFALL REPORTS RECEIVED HAVE BEEN
AROUND 1/3" PER HR. EXAMINATION OF THE INDIVIDUAL RADAR SLICES
REVEALS THAT A GOOD PORTION OF THE ENHANCEMENT IS DUE TO BRIGHT
BANDING ON THE RADAR...WITH FREEZING LEVELS RIGHT AROUND 7KFT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SW SWINGING SOUTH THROUGH
LAKE ERIE WITH AN ATTENDANT VORT MAX THROUGH OHIO. THIS IS
GENERATING LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE
ERIE EXTENDING INTO OUR NRN CWA AND CONGEALING WITH THE BACK EDGE
OF THE SLOW MOVING CIRCULATION CURRENTLY OVER THE NE CWA. THIS
VORT WILL EFFECTIVELY CUT-OFF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AND ALLOW IT TO DRIFT RIGHT OVERTOP OF US. WITH COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF LLVL MOISTURE AND THE COLD POOL ALOFT MAXIMIZING OVER
OUR AREA NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WOULD EXPECT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN RAIN SHOWERS. WE ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE
THIS OVER NRN WV AFTER A RELATIVELY DRY MORNING.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA...ENHANCING NRLY
FLOW ALOFT WRAPPING MOISTURE BACK AROUND THE SYSTEM. THE LLVL FLOW
WILL REMAIN NWRLY ENABLING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT...THUS WILL
CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS IN THE SE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE...MULTIPLE
WEAK MID-LEVEL VORTS ARE PROGGED TO SWING AROUND THE PARENT
LOW...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. KEEPING CHC POPS IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH WEDS
MORNING. WITH TEMPS MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY...LARGE MODIFICATIONS WERE NOT NECESSARY.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD MID LVLS WL PERSIST OVR THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY DESPITE
THE LOW CNTR SHIFTING TWD THE COAST. DESPITE A CONSIDERABLE
REDUCTION IN POPS...SHWRS CHCS IN THE LOW THRESHOLD CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WERE MAINTAINED WITH EMPHASIS OVR THE UPSLOPE AREAS
ALNG THE I 80 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE RIDGES. THEREAFTER...WARMING
ALOFT/LOWERING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS ON
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SLGT TO CHC NMBRS WERE KEPT OVR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS.

TRAILING SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR A FRIDAY CROSSING OF THE REGION...BUT
SOME CLDS ARE ALL THAT IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE LACK A THERMAL TROF
ALOFT AS WELL AS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MSTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS WERE TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS TRENDS...BUT
LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE AND VERY SLOW MOVING SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND ACROSS THE AREA OVER THROUGH WEDS. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FOUND PRIMARILY IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS WITH
AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD DECK AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS GENERATED...THUS MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE THROUGH MID-MORNING WEDS. AS OF
15Z MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
DIP AGAIN INTO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR TONIGHT WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF
LOW CIGS.
TAX

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DUE TO THE LARGE AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...PERIODIC
RSTRNS COULD LAST THROUGH THURS IN SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211540
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1140 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION PRESENT ON CURRENT RADAR AS AN MCV FEATURE
IS VERY SLOWLY MOVING W TO E ACROSS THE NRN 1/3 OF THE CWA.
DESPITE ENHANCED RADAR REFLECTIVITIES ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE
MCV CIRCULATION...THE HIGHEST RAINFALL REPORTS RECEIVED HAVE BEEN
AROUND 1/3" PER HR. EXAMINATION OF THE INDIVIDUAL RADAR SLICES
REVEALS THAT A GOOD PORTION OF THE ENHANCEMENT IS DUE TO BRIGHT
BANDING ON THE RADAR...WITH FREEZING LEVELS RIGHT AROUND 7KFT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SW SWINGING SOUTH THROUGH
LAKE ERIE WITH AN ATTENDANT VORT MAX THROUGH OHIO. THIS IS
GENERATING LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE
ERIE EXTENDING INTO OUR NRN CWA AND CONGEALING WITH THE BACK EDGE
OF THE SLOW MOVING CIRCULATION CURRENTLY OVER THE NE CWA. THIS
VORT WILL EFFECTIVELY CUT-OFF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AND ALLOW IT TO DRIFT RIGHT OVERTOP OF US. WITH COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF LLVL MOISTURE AND THE COLD POOL ALOFT MAXIMIZING OVER
OUR AREA NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WOULD EXPECT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN RAIN SHOWERS. WE ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE
THIS OVER NRN WV AFTER A RELATIVELY DRY MORNING.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA...ENHANCING NRLY
FLOW ALOFT WRAPPING MOISTURE BACK AROUND THE SYSTEM. THE LLVL FLOW
WILL REMAIN NWRLY ENABLING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT...THUS WILL
CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS IN THE SE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE...MULTIPLE
WEAK MID-LEVEL VORTS ARE PROGGED TO SWING AROUND THE PARENT
LOW...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. KEEPING CHC POPS IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH WEDS
MORNING. WITH TEMPS MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY...LARGE MODIFICATIONS WERE NOT NECESSARY.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD MID LVLS WL PERSIST OVR THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY DESPITE
THE LOW CNTR SHIFTING TWD THE COAST. DESPITE A CONSIDERABLE
REDUCTION IN POPS...SHWRS CHCS IN THE LOW THRESHOLD CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WERE MAINTAINED WITH EMPHASIS OVR THE UPSLOPE AREAS
ALNG THE I 80 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE RIDGES. THEREAFTER...WARMING
ALOFT/LOWERING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS ON
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SLGT TO CHC NMBRS WERE KEPT OVR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS.

TRAILING SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR A FRIDAY CROSSING OF THE REGION...BUT
SOME CLDS ARE ALL THAT IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE LACK A THERMAL TROF
ALOFT AS WELL AS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MSTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS WERE TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS TRENDS...BUT
LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE AND VERY SLOW MOVING SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND ACROSS THE AREA OVER THROUGH WEDS. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FOUND PRIMARILY IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS WITH
AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD DECK AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS GENERATED...THUS MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE THROUGH MID-MORNING WEDS. AS OF
15Z MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
DIP AGAIN INTO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR TONIGHT WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF
LOW CIGS.
TAX

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DUE TO THE LARGE AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...PERIODIC
RSTRNS COULD LAST THROUGH THURS IN SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211540
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1140 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION PRESENT ON CURRENT RADAR AS AN MCV FEATURE
IS VERY SLOWLY MOVING W TO E ACROSS THE NRN 1/3 OF THE CWA.
DESPITE ENHANCED RADAR REFLECTIVITIES ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE
MCV CIRCULATION...THE HIGHEST RAINFALL REPORTS RECEIVED HAVE BEEN
AROUND 1/3" PER HR. EXAMINATION OF THE INDIVIDUAL RADAR SLICES
REVEALS THAT A GOOD PORTION OF THE ENHANCEMENT IS DUE TO BRIGHT
BANDING ON THE RADAR...WITH FREEZING LEVELS RIGHT AROUND 7KFT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SW SWINGING SOUTH THROUGH
LAKE ERIE WITH AN ATTENDANT VORT MAX THROUGH OHIO. THIS IS
GENERATING LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE
ERIE EXTENDING INTO OUR NRN CWA AND CONGEALING WITH THE BACK EDGE
OF THE SLOW MOVING CIRCULATION CURRENTLY OVER THE NE CWA. THIS
VORT WILL EFFECTIVELY CUT-OFF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AND ALLOW IT TO DRIFT RIGHT OVERTOP OF US. WITH COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF LLVL MOISTURE AND THE COLD POOL ALOFT MAXIMIZING OVER
OUR AREA NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WOULD EXPECT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN RAIN SHOWERS. WE ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE
THIS OVER NRN WV AFTER A RELATIVELY DRY MORNING.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA...ENHANCING NRLY
FLOW ALOFT WRAPPING MOISTURE BACK AROUND THE SYSTEM. THE LLVL FLOW
WILL REMAIN NWRLY ENABLING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT...THUS WILL
CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS IN THE SE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE...MULTIPLE
WEAK MID-LEVEL VORTS ARE PROGGED TO SWING AROUND THE PARENT
LOW...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. KEEPING CHC POPS IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH WEDS
MORNING. WITH TEMPS MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY...LARGE MODIFICATIONS WERE NOT NECESSARY.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD MID LVLS WL PERSIST OVR THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY DESPITE
THE LOW CNTR SHIFTING TWD THE COAST. DESPITE A CONSIDERABLE
REDUCTION IN POPS...SHWRS CHCS IN THE LOW THRESHOLD CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WERE MAINTAINED WITH EMPHASIS OVR THE UPSLOPE AREAS
ALNG THE I 80 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE RIDGES. THEREAFTER...WARMING
ALOFT/LOWERING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS ON
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SLGT TO CHC NMBRS WERE KEPT OVR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS.

TRAILING SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR A FRIDAY CROSSING OF THE REGION...BUT
SOME CLDS ARE ALL THAT IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE LACK A THERMAL TROF
ALOFT AS WELL AS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MSTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS WERE TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS TRENDS...BUT
LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE AND VERY SLOW MOVING SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND ACROSS THE AREA OVER THROUGH WEDS. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FOUND PRIMARILY IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS WITH
AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD DECK AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS GENERATED...THUS MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE THROUGH MID-MORNING WEDS. AS OF
15Z MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
DIP AGAIN INTO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR TONIGHT WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF
LOW CIGS.
TAX

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DUE TO THE LARGE AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...PERIODIC
RSTRNS COULD LAST THROUGH THURS IN SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211540
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1140 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION PRESENT ON CURRENT RADAR AS AN MCV FEATURE
IS VERY SLOWLY MOVING W TO E ACROSS THE NRN 1/3 OF THE CWA.
DESPITE ENHANCED RADAR REFLECTIVITIES ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE
MCV CIRCULATION...THE HIGHEST RAINFALL REPORTS RECEIVED HAVE BEEN
AROUND 1/3" PER HR. EXAMINATION OF THE INDIVIDUAL RADAR SLICES
REVEALS THAT A GOOD PORTION OF THE ENHANCEMENT IS DUE TO BRIGHT
BANDING ON THE RADAR...WITH FREEZING LEVELS RIGHT AROUND 7KFT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SW SWINGING SOUTH THROUGH
LAKE ERIE WITH AN ATTENDANT VORT MAX THROUGH OHIO. THIS IS
GENERATING LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE
ERIE EXTENDING INTO OUR NRN CWA AND CONGEALING WITH THE BACK EDGE
OF THE SLOW MOVING CIRCULATION CURRENTLY OVER THE NE CWA. THIS
VORT WILL EFFECTIVELY CUT-OFF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AND ALLOW IT TO DRIFT RIGHT OVERTOP OF US. WITH COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF LLVL MOISTURE AND THE COLD POOL ALOFT MAXIMIZING OVER
OUR AREA NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WOULD EXPECT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN RAIN SHOWERS. WE ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE
THIS OVER NRN WV AFTER A RELATIVELY DRY MORNING.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA...ENHANCING NRLY
FLOW ALOFT WRAPPING MOISTURE BACK AROUND THE SYSTEM. THE LLVL FLOW
WILL REMAIN NWRLY ENABLING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT...THUS WILL
CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS IN THE SE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE...MULTIPLE
WEAK MID-LEVEL VORTS ARE PROGGED TO SWING AROUND THE PARENT
LOW...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. KEEPING CHC POPS IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH WEDS
MORNING. WITH TEMPS MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY...LARGE MODIFICATIONS WERE NOT NECESSARY.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD MID LVLS WL PERSIST OVR THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY DESPITE
THE LOW CNTR SHIFTING TWD THE COAST. DESPITE A CONSIDERABLE
REDUCTION IN POPS...SHWRS CHCS IN THE LOW THRESHOLD CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WERE MAINTAINED WITH EMPHASIS OVR THE UPSLOPE AREAS
ALNG THE I 80 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE RIDGES. THEREAFTER...WARMING
ALOFT/LOWERING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS ON
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SLGT TO CHC NMBRS WERE KEPT OVR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS.

TRAILING SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR A FRIDAY CROSSING OF THE REGION...BUT
SOME CLDS ARE ALL THAT IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE LACK A THERMAL TROF
ALOFT AS WELL AS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MSTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS WERE TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS TRENDS...BUT
LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE AND VERY SLOW MOVING SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND ACROSS THE AREA OVER THROUGH WEDS. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FOUND PRIMARILY IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS WITH
AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD DECK AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS GENERATED...THUS MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE THROUGH MID-MORNING WEDS. AS OF
15Z MOST TERMINALS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
DIP AGAIN INTO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR TONIGHT WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF
LOW CIGS.
TAX

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DUE TO THE LARGE AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...PERIODIC
RSTRNS COULD LAST THROUGH THURS IN SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211042
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
642 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HRLY GRID TRENDS BASED ON RADAR AND OBS
FOR THE PRE DAWN UPDT.

PREVIOUS DISC...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPR TROF AXIS OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY
THIS MRNG WL CONT TO DEEPEN AND CUTOFF TDA AS JET STREAK SLIDES
OVR THE GREAT LAKES REGION. NMRS TO WIDESPREAD SHWRS WL THUS RMN
IN THE FORECAST DESPITE DRY ADVCTN IN BNDRY LYR...WITH FOCUS OVR
NRN AND ERN ZONES AS FLOW WRAPS WITH THE DEEPENING LOW. IN
GENL...FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR TDAS DAMP AND COOL PROGNOSIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD MID LVLS WL PERSIST OVR THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY DESPITE
THE LOW CNTR SHIFTING TWD THE COAST. DESPITE A CONSIDERABLE
REDUCTION IN POPS...SHWRS CHCS IN THE LOW THRESHOLD CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WERE MAINTAINED WITH EMPHASIS OVR THE UPSLOPE AREAS
ALNG THE I 80 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE RIDGES. THEREAFTER...WARMING
ALOFT/LOWERING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS ON
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SLGT TO CHC NMBRS WERE KEPT OVR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS.

TRAILING SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR A FRIDAY CROSSING OF THE REGION...BUT
SOME CLDS ARE ALL THAT IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE LACK A THERMAL TROF
ALOFT AS WELL AS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MSTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS WERE TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS TRENDS...BUT
LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SLOW MOVG UPR LOW ACRS THE GT LKS RGN WL MAINTAIN MAINLY MVFR
CONDS AND PDS OF SHWRS ACRS AREA PORTS THRU TNGT. THE EXCEPTION WL
BE FOR PORTS FM PIT NWD WHERE IFR WL CONT INTO MID MRNG...AND
REDEVELOP AGAIN OVRNGT.

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL INTO THU WITH SLOW MOVG LOW PRES ACRS THE
MID ATLANTIC RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211042
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
642 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HRLY GRID TRENDS BASED ON RADAR AND OBS
FOR THE PRE DAWN UPDT.

PREVIOUS DISC...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPR TROF AXIS OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY
THIS MRNG WL CONT TO DEEPEN AND CUTOFF TDA AS JET STREAK SLIDES
OVR THE GREAT LAKES REGION. NMRS TO WIDESPREAD SHWRS WL THUS RMN
IN THE FORECAST DESPITE DRY ADVCTN IN BNDRY LYR...WITH FOCUS OVR
NRN AND ERN ZONES AS FLOW WRAPS WITH THE DEEPENING LOW. IN
GENL...FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR TDAS DAMP AND COOL PROGNOSIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD MID LVLS WL PERSIST OVR THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY DESPITE
THE LOW CNTR SHIFTING TWD THE COAST. DESPITE A CONSIDERABLE
REDUCTION IN POPS...SHWRS CHCS IN THE LOW THRESHOLD CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WERE MAINTAINED WITH EMPHASIS OVR THE UPSLOPE AREAS
ALNG THE I 80 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE RIDGES. THEREAFTER...WARMING
ALOFT/LOWERING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS ON
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SLGT TO CHC NMBRS WERE KEPT OVR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS.

TRAILING SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR A FRIDAY CROSSING OF THE REGION...BUT
SOME CLDS ARE ALL THAT IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE LACK A THERMAL TROF
ALOFT AS WELL AS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MSTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS WERE TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS TRENDS...BUT
LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SLOW MOVG UPR LOW ACRS THE GT LKS RGN WL MAINTAIN MAINLY MVFR
CONDS AND PDS OF SHWRS ACRS AREA PORTS THRU TNGT. THE EXCEPTION WL
BE FOR PORTS FM PIT NWD WHERE IFR WL CONT INTO MID MRNG...AND
REDEVELOP AGAIN OVRNGT.

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL INTO THU WITH SLOW MOVG LOW PRES ACRS THE
MID ATLANTIC RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211042
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
642 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HRLY GRID TRENDS BASED ON RADAR AND OBS
FOR THE PRE DAWN UPDT.

PREVIOUS DISC...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPR TROF AXIS OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY
THIS MRNG WL CONT TO DEEPEN AND CUTOFF TDA AS JET STREAK SLIDES
OVR THE GREAT LAKES REGION. NMRS TO WIDESPREAD SHWRS WL THUS RMN
IN THE FORECAST DESPITE DRY ADVCTN IN BNDRY LYR...WITH FOCUS OVR
NRN AND ERN ZONES AS FLOW WRAPS WITH THE DEEPENING LOW. IN
GENL...FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR TDAS DAMP AND COOL PROGNOSIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD MID LVLS WL PERSIST OVR THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY DESPITE
THE LOW CNTR SHIFTING TWD THE COAST. DESPITE A CONSIDERABLE
REDUCTION IN POPS...SHWRS CHCS IN THE LOW THRESHOLD CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WERE MAINTAINED WITH EMPHASIS OVR THE UPSLOPE AREAS
ALNG THE I 80 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE RIDGES. THEREAFTER...WARMING
ALOFT/LOWERING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS ON
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SLGT TO CHC NMBRS WERE KEPT OVR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS.

TRAILING SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR A FRIDAY CROSSING OF THE REGION...BUT
SOME CLDS ARE ALL THAT IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE LACK A THERMAL TROF
ALOFT AS WELL AS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MSTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS WERE TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS TRENDS...BUT
LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SLOW MOVG UPR LOW ACRS THE GT LKS RGN WL MAINTAIN MAINLY MVFR
CONDS AND PDS OF SHWRS ACRS AREA PORTS THRU TNGT. THE EXCEPTION WL
BE FOR PORTS FM PIT NWD WHERE IFR WL CONT INTO MID MRNG...AND
REDEVELOP AGAIN OVRNGT.

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL INTO THU WITH SLOW MOVG LOW PRES ACRS THE
MID ATLANTIC RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210726
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
326 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPR TROF AXIS OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY THIS MRNG WL
CONT TO DEEPEN AND CUTOFF TDA AS JET STREAK SLIDES OVR THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. NMRS TO WIDESPREAD SHWRS WL THUS RMN IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE DRY ADVCTN IN BNDRY LYR...WITH FOCUS OVR NRN AND
ERN ZONES AS FLOW WRAPS WITH THE DEEPENING LOW. IN GENL...FEW
CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR TDAS DAMP AND COOL PROGNOSIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD MID LVLS WL PERSIST OVR THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY DESPITE
THE LOW CNTR SHIFTING TWD THE COAST. DESPITE A CONSIDERABLE
REDUCTION IN POPS...SHWRS CHCS IN THE LOW THRESHOLD CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WERE MAINTAINED WITH EMPHASIS OVR THE UPSLOPE AREAS
ALNG THE I 80 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE RIDGES. THEREAFTER...WARMING
ALOFT/LOWERING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS ON
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SLGT TO CHC NMBRS WERE KEPT OVR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS.

TRAILING SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR A FRIDAY CROSSING OF THE REGION...BUT
SOME CLDS ARE ALL THAT IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE LACK A THERMAL TROF
ALOFT AS WELL AS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MSTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS WERE TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS TRENDS...BUT
LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SLOW MOVG UPR LOW ACRS THE GT LKS RGN WL MAINTAIN MVFR CONDS
AND PDS OF SHWRS ACRS AREA PORTS THRU TNGT. THE EXCEPTION WL BE
SOME OCNL IFR CIGS THAT ARE EXPD MAINLY FOR PORTS FM PIT NWD ERLY
THIS MRNG.

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL INTO THU WITH SLOW MOVG LOW PRES ACRS THE
MID ATLANTIC RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210726
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
326 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPR TROF AXIS OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY THIS MRNG WL
CONT TO DEEPEN AND CUTOFF TDA AS JET STREAK SLIDES OVR THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. NMRS TO WIDESPREAD SHWRS WL THUS RMN IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE DRY ADVCTN IN BNDRY LYR...WITH FOCUS OVR NRN AND
ERN ZONES AS FLOW WRAPS WITH THE DEEPENING LOW. IN GENL...FEW
CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR TDAS DAMP AND COOL PROGNOSIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD MID LVLS WL PERSIST OVR THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY DESPITE
THE LOW CNTR SHIFTING TWD THE COAST. DESPITE A CONSIDERABLE
REDUCTION IN POPS...SHWRS CHCS IN THE LOW THRESHOLD CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WERE MAINTAINED WITH EMPHASIS OVR THE UPSLOPE AREAS
ALNG THE I 80 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE RIDGES. THEREAFTER...WARMING
ALOFT/LOWERING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS ON
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SLGT TO CHC NMBRS WERE KEPT OVR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS.

TRAILING SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR A FRIDAY CROSSING OF THE REGION...BUT
SOME CLDS ARE ALL THAT IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE LACK A THERMAL TROF
ALOFT AS WELL AS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MSTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS WERE TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS TRENDS...BUT
LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SLOW MOVG UPR LOW ACRS THE GT LKS RGN WL MAINTAIN MVFR CONDS
AND PDS OF SHWRS ACRS AREA PORTS THRU TNGT. THE EXCEPTION WL BE
SOME OCNL IFR CIGS THAT ARE EXPD MAINLY FOR PORTS FM PIT NWD ERLY
THIS MRNG.

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL INTO THU WITH SLOW MOVG LOW PRES ACRS THE
MID ATLANTIC RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210433
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1233 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

HIGH AMPLITUDE UPR TROF AXIS OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY THIS MRNG WL
CONT TO DEEPEN AND CUTOFF TDA AS JET STREAK SLIDES OVR THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. NMRS TO WIDESPREAD SHWRS WL THUS RMN IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE DRY ADVCTN IN BNDRY LYR...WITH FOCUS OVR NRN AND
ERN ZONES AS FLOW WRAPS WITH THE DEEPENING LOW. IN GENL...FEW
CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR TDAS DAMP AND COOL PROGNOSIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD MID LVLS WL PERSIST OVR THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY DESPITE
THE LOW CNTR SHIFTING TWD THE COAST. DESPITE A CONSIDERABLE
REDUCTION IN POPS...SHWRS CHCS IN THE LOW THRESHOLD CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WERE MAINTAINED WITH EMPHASIS OVR THE UPSLOPE AREAS
ALNG THE I 80 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE RIDGES. THEREAFTER...WARMING
ALOFT/LOWERING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS ON
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SLGT TO CHC NMBRS WERE KEPT OVR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS.

TRAILING SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR A FRIDAY CROSSING OF THE REGION...BUT
SOME CLDS ARE ALL THAT IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE LACK A THERMAL TROF
ALOFT AS WELL AS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MSTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS WERE TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS TRENDS...BUT
LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE MID-WEEK UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR THE
CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEEKEND.
TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM PD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SLOW MOVG UPR LOW ACRS THE GT LKS RGN WL MAINTAIN MVFR CONDS
AND PDS OF SHWRS ACRS AREA PORTS THRU TNGT. THE EXCEPTION WL BE
SOME OCNL IFR CIGS THAT ARE EXPD MAINLY FOR PORTS FM PIT NWD ERLY
THIS MRNG.

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL INTO THU WITH SLOW MOVG LOW PRES ACRS THE
MID ATLANTIC RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210433
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1233 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

HIGH AMPLITUDE UPR TROF AXIS OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY THIS MRNG WL
CONT TO DEEPEN AND CUTOFF TDA AS JET STREAK SLIDES OVR THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. NMRS TO WIDESPREAD SHWRS WL THUS RMN IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE DRY ADVCTN IN BNDRY LYR...WITH FOCUS OVR NRN AND
ERN ZONES AS FLOW WRAPS WITH THE DEEPENING LOW. IN GENL...FEW
CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR TDAS DAMP AND COOL PROGNOSIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD MID LVLS WL PERSIST OVR THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY DESPITE
THE LOW CNTR SHIFTING TWD THE COAST. DESPITE A CONSIDERABLE
REDUCTION IN POPS...SHWRS CHCS IN THE LOW THRESHOLD CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WERE MAINTAINED WITH EMPHASIS OVR THE UPSLOPE AREAS
ALNG THE I 80 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE RIDGES. THEREAFTER...WARMING
ALOFT/LOWERING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS ON
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SLGT TO CHC NMBRS WERE KEPT OVR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS.

TRAILING SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR A FRIDAY CROSSING OF THE REGION...BUT
SOME CLDS ARE ALL THAT IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE LACK A THERMAL TROF
ALOFT AS WELL AS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MSTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS WERE TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS TRENDS...BUT
LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE MID-WEEK UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR THE
CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEEKEND.
TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM PD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SLOW MOVG UPR LOW ACRS THE GT LKS RGN WL MAINTAIN MVFR CONDS
AND PDS OF SHWRS ACRS AREA PORTS THRU TNGT. THE EXCEPTION WL BE
SOME OCNL IFR CIGS THAT ARE EXPD MAINLY FOR PORTS FM PIT NWD ERLY
THIS MRNG.

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL INTO THU WITH SLOW MOVG LOW PRES ACRS THE
MID ATLANTIC RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210433
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1233 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

HIGH AMPLITUDE UPR TROF AXIS OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY THIS MRNG WL
CONT TO DEEPEN AND CUTOFF TDA AS JET STREAK SLIDES OVR THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. NMRS TO WIDESPREAD SHWRS WL THUS RMN IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE DRY ADVCTN IN BNDRY LYR...WITH FOCUS OVR NRN AND
ERN ZONES AS FLOW WRAPS WITH THE DEEPENING LOW. IN GENL...FEW
CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR TDAS DAMP AND COOL PROGNOSIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD MID LVLS WL PERSIST OVR THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY DESPITE
THE LOW CNTR SHIFTING TWD THE COAST. DESPITE A CONSIDERABLE
REDUCTION IN POPS...SHWRS CHCS IN THE LOW THRESHOLD CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WERE MAINTAINED WITH EMPHASIS OVR THE UPSLOPE AREAS
ALNG THE I 80 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE RIDGES. THEREAFTER...WARMING
ALOFT/LOWERING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS ON
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SLGT TO CHC NMBRS WERE KEPT OVR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS.

TRAILING SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR A FRIDAY CROSSING OF THE REGION...BUT
SOME CLDS ARE ALL THAT IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE LACK A THERMAL TROF
ALOFT AS WELL AS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MSTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS WERE TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS TRENDS...BUT
LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE MID-WEEK UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR THE
CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEEKEND.
TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM PD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SLOW MOVG UPR LOW ACRS THE GT LKS RGN WL MAINTAIN MVFR CONDS
AND PDS OF SHWRS ACRS AREA PORTS THRU TNGT. THE EXCEPTION WL BE
SOME OCNL IFR CIGS THAT ARE EXPD MAINLY FOR PORTS FM PIT NWD ERLY
THIS MRNG.

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL INTO THU WITH SLOW MOVG LOW PRES ACRS THE
MID ATLANTIC RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210156
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
956 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAINY AND COOL THROUGH MID-WEEK WHEN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHIFTS EASTWARD. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE INTO SOUTHERN OHIO WITH LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CWA. LITTLE CHANGE TO POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH BACK EDGE
OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN ACROSS EASTERN OHIO. THIS WILL SHIFT EAST AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AS SHORTWAVE HEADS EAST. ENERGY DIGS INTO THE
BACKSIDE OF UPPER TROUGH WITH SYSTEM CLOSING OFF ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND SINKING SOUTH. AS THIS HAPPENS...ABUNDANT LLVL
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA KEEPING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST. AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY PASSES TUES...THE SFC-H8 LOW
CORE SHIFTS EAST BRINGING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LLVL WIND
FIELD. WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS IN FOR THE SE RIDGES AS A
RESULT. DRIEST LOCATION IN THE CWA TUES LOOKS TO BE OVER ERN OHIO
WHERE DRIER AIR ALOFT BEGINS FEEDING INTO THE UPPER LOW WHICH MAY
WORK TO SUPPRESS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE
MID-LEVEL COLD POOL BEGINS TO DEPART TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AMPLY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY...AND UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN LOW END CHANCES OF
SHOWERS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND FAIRLY GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS
IN THE RIDGES. AS SHEAR INCREASES AFTER THIS TIME...MID-LEVEL
RIDGING STARTS TO IMPINGE...AND DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR FINALLY
STARTS TO WORK INTO THE REGION...SHOWER CHANCES DWINDLE TO LESS
THAN MENTIONABLE BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK NOW LOOKS RATHER DRY...WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING TOWARD NORMAL AS SUNSHINE SHOULD FINALLY
MAKE A RETURN TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE MID-WEEK UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR THE
CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CLOSE TO
THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM
PD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR AT THE START...BUT FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
PASSES THROUGH. HAVE ALL SITES DROPPING TO MVFR...AND SEVERAL
SHOULD REACH IFR ON EITHER A PREVAILING OR TEMPORARY BASIS AFTER
06Z OR SO. THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER LOW ON TUESDAY WILL MAINTAIN
MVFR CIGS INTO AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE IMPROVMENT TO VFR
LATE IN THE TAFS BUT COULD EASILY SEE MVFR LINGER. LIGHT S/SW
WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO W BY 12Z AND EVEN TURN WNW BY AFTERNOON.

.AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW
DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210156
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
956 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAINY AND COOL THROUGH MID-WEEK WHEN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHIFTS EASTWARD. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE INTO SOUTHERN OHIO WITH LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CWA. LITTLE CHANGE TO POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH BACK EDGE
OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN ACROSS EASTERN OHIO. THIS WILL SHIFT EAST AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AS SHORTWAVE HEADS EAST. ENERGY DIGS INTO THE
BACKSIDE OF UPPER TROUGH WITH SYSTEM CLOSING OFF ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND SINKING SOUTH. AS THIS HAPPENS...ABUNDANT LLVL
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA KEEPING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST. AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY PASSES TUES...THE SFC-H8 LOW
CORE SHIFTS EAST BRINGING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LLVL WIND
FIELD. WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS IN FOR THE SE RIDGES AS A
RESULT. DRIEST LOCATION IN THE CWA TUES LOOKS TO BE OVER ERN OHIO
WHERE DRIER AIR ALOFT BEGINS FEEDING INTO THE UPPER LOW WHICH MAY
WORK TO SUPPRESS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE
MID-LEVEL COLD POOL BEGINS TO DEPART TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AMPLY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY...AND UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN LOW END CHANCES OF
SHOWERS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND FAIRLY GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS
IN THE RIDGES. AS SHEAR INCREASES AFTER THIS TIME...MID-LEVEL
RIDGING STARTS TO IMPINGE...AND DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR FINALLY
STARTS TO WORK INTO THE REGION...SHOWER CHANCES DWINDLE TO LESS
THAN MENTIONABLE BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK NOW LOOKS RATHER DRY...WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING TOWARD NORMAL AS SUNSHINE SHOULD FINALLY
MAKE A RETURN TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE MID-WEEK UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR THE
CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CLOSE TO
THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM
PD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR AT THE START...BUT FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
PASSES THROUGH. HAVE ALL SITES DROPPING TO MVFR...AND SEVERAL
SHOULD REACH IFR ON EITHER A PREVAILING OR TEMPORARY BASIS AFTER
06Z OR SO. THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER LOW ON TUESDAY WILL MAINTAIN
MVFR CIGS INTO AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE IMPROVMENT TO VFR
LATE IN THE TAFS BUT COULD EASILY SEE MVFR LINGER. LIGHT S/SW
WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO W BY 12Z AND EVEN TURN WNW BY AFTERNOON.

.AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW
DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210156
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
956 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAINY AND COOL THROUGH MID-WEEK WHEN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHIFTS EASTWARD. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE INTO SOUTHERN OHIO WITH LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CWA. LITTLE CHANGE TO POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH BACK EDGE
OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN ACROSS EASTERN OHIO. THIS WILL SHIFT EAST AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AS SHORTWAVE HEADS EAST. ENERGY DIGS INTO THE
BACKSIDE OF UPPER TROUGH WITH SYSTEM CLOSING OFF ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND SINKING SOUTH. AS THIS HAPPENS...ABUNDANT LLVL
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA KEEPING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST. AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY PASSES TUES...THE SFC-H8 LOW
CORE SHIFTS EAST BRINGING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LLVL WIND
FIELD. WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS IN FOR THE SE RIDGES AS A
RESULT. DRIEST LOCATION IN THE CWA TUES LOOKS TO BE OVER ERN OHIO
WHERE DRIER AIR ALOFT BEGINS FEEDING INTO THE UPPER LOW WHICH MAY
WORK TO SUPPRESS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE
MID-LEVEL COLD POOL BEGINS TO DEPART TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AMPLY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY...AND UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN LOW END CHANCES OF
SHOWERS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND FAIRLY GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS
IN THE RIDGES. AS SHEAR INCREASES AFTER THIS TIME...MID-LEVEL
RIDGING STARTS TO IMPINGE...AND DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR FINALLY
STARTS TO WORK INTO THE REGION...SHOWER CHANCES DWINDLE TO LESS
THAN MENTIONABLE BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK NOW LOOKS RATHER DRY...WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING TOWARD NORMAL AS SUNSHINE SHOULD FINALLY
MAKE A RETURN TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE MID-WEEK UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR THE
CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CLOSE TO
THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM
PD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR AT THE START...BUT FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
PASSES THROUGH. HAVE ALL SITES DROPPING TO MVFR...AND SEVERAL
SHOULD REACH IFR ON EITHER A PREVAILING OR TEMPORARY BASIS AFTER
06Z OR SO. THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER LOW ON TUESDAY WILL MAINTAIN
MVFR CIGS INTO AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE IMPROVMENT TO VFR
LATE IN THE TAFS BUT COULD EASILY SEE MVFR LINGER. LIGHT S/SW
WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO W BY 12Z AND EVEN TURN WNW BY AFTERNOON.

.AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW
DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 202329
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
729 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAINY AND COOL THROUGH MID-WEEK WHEN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHIFTS EASTWARD. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EARLY EVENING UPDATE TO ADD CAT POPS FARTHER SOUTH TONIGHT BASED
ON RADAR TRENDS SHOWING BANDS OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING WELL INTO SOUTHERN
OHIO. ALSO SPEED UP TIMING FOR SHOWERS INTO RIDGES EARLY TONIGHT.
MODEST QPF ADDED. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES OR WINDS. PREVIOUS
DISCO BELOW.


SW TROF AND ATTENDANT VORT MAX EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY CURRENTLY
SWINGING THROUGH ERN INDIANA SOUTH OF THE SFC NEARING LAKE HURON.
MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION PRODUCING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF TROF AXIS
OVER WV AND SW PA WILL PUSH EAST TONIGHT. THOSE CLOUDS WILL BE
REPLACED BY LOWER CLOUDS THIS EVENING KEEPING TEMPS MODERATED.

RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN QUITE NUMEROUS TODAY...BUT LITTLE MORE
THAN VIRGA HAS BEEN REPORTED UP TO THIS POINT AS DRY AIR FROM THE
MID LEVELS DOWN ARE KEEPING ANY RAIN SHOWERS FROM REACHING THE
GROUND. RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SW TROF ARE SHOWING UP
OVER WRN OHIO AND ARE TIMED TO REACH OUR WRN PERIPHERY BY ABOUT
21Z. BY 00Z ALL OF THE NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE THE SW TROF AXIS
THROUGH ERN OH WITH RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE
WNW. DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND BETTER FORCING WILL REMAIN
CLOSER TO THE LOW NEAR LAKE ERIE...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE
CATEGORICAL POPS THERE. ALTHOUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
BEGINS TO OUTRUN THE TROF AXIS ACROSS OUR SOUTH...ENOUGH MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS NRN WV. WILL NOT DEVIATE
FROM THE LIKELY POPS.

TONIGHT THE SFC LOW IS PULLED SOUTH AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES AS
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO CUT-OFF. AS THIS HAPPENS...ABUNDANT LLVL
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA KEEPING CLOUDS AND RAIN IN THE
FORECAST. AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY PASSES TUES...THE SFC-H8 LOW CORE
SHIFTS EAST BRINGING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LLVL WIND FIELD.
WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS IN FOR THE SE RIDGES AS A RESULT. DRIEST
LOCATION IN THE CWA TUES LOOKS TO BE OVER ERN OHIO WHERE DRIER AIR
ALOFT BEGINS FEEDING INTO THE UPPER LOW WHICH MAY WORK TO SUPPRESS
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE
MID-LEVEL COLD POOL BEGINS TO DEPART TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AMPLY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY...AND UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN LOW END CHANCES OF
SHOWERS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND FAIRLY GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS
IN THE RIDGES. AS SHEAR INCREASES AFTER THIS TIME...MID-LEVEL
RIDGING STARTS TO IMPINGE...AND DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR FINALLY
STARTS TO WORK INTO THE REGION...SHOWER CHANCES DWINDLE TO LESS
THAN MENTIONABLE BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK NOW LOOKS RATHER DRY...WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING TOWARD NORMAL AS SUNSHINE SHOULD FINALLY
MAKE A RETURN TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE MID-WEEK UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR THE
CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CLOSE TO
THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM
PD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR AT THE START...BUT FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
PASSES THROUGH. HAVE ALL SITES DROPPING TO MVFR...AND SEVERAL
SHOULD REACH IFR ON EITHER A PREVAILING OR TEMPORARY BASIS AFTER
06Z OR SO. THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER LOW ON TUESDAY WILL MAINTAIN
MVFR CIGS INTO AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE IMPROVMENT TO VFR
LATE IN THE TAFS BUT COULD EASILY SEE MVFR LINGER. LIGHT S/SW
WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO W BY 12Z AND EVEN TURN WNW BY AFTERNOON.

.AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW
DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 202217
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
617 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAINY AND COOL THROUGH MID-WEEK WHEN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHIFTS EASTWARD. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EARLY EVENING UPDATE TO ADD CAT POPS FARTHER SOUTH TONIGHT BASED
ON RADAR TRENDS SHOWING BANDS OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING WELL INTO SOUTHERN
OHIO. ALSO SPEED UP TIMING FOR SHOWERS INTO RIDGES EARLY TONIGHT.
MODEST QPF ADDED. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES OR WINDS. PREVIOUS
DISCO BELOW.


SW TROF AND ATTENDANT VORT MAX EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY CURRENTLY
SWINGING THROUGH ERN INDIANA SOUTH OF THE SFC NEARING LAKE HURON.
MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION PRODUCING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF TROF AXIS
OVER WV AND SW PA WILL PUSH EAST TONIGHT. THOSE CLOUDS WILL BE
REPLACED BY LOWER CLOUDS THIS EVENING KEEPING TEMPS MODERATED.

RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN QUITE NUMEROUS TODAY...BUT LITTLE MORE
THAN VIRGA HAS BEEN REPORTED UP TO THIS POINT AS DRY AIR FROM THE
MID LEVELS DOWN ARE KEEPING ANY RAIN SHOWERS FROM REACHING THE
GROUND. RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SW TROF ARE SHOWING UP
OVER WRN OHIO AND ARE TIMED TO REACH OUR WRN PERIPHERY BY ABOUT
21Z. BY 00Z ALL OF THE NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE THE SW TROF AXIS
THROUGH ERN OH WITH RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE
WNW. DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND BETTER FORCING WILL REMAIN
CLOSER TO THE LOW NEAR LAKE ERIE...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE
CATEGORICAL POPS THERE. ALTHOUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
BEGINS TO OUTRUN THE TROF AXIS ACROSS OUR SOUTH...ENOUGH MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS NRN WV. WILL NOT DEVIATE
FROM THE LIKELY POPS.

TONIGHT THE SFC LOW IS PULLED SOUTH AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES AS
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO CUT-OFF. AS THIS HAPPENS...ABUNDANT LLVL
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA KEEPING CLOUDS AND RAIN IN THE
FORECAST. AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY PASSES TUES...THE SFC-H8 LOW CORE
SHIFTS EAST BRINGING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LLVL WIND FIELD.
WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS IN FOR THE SE RIDGES AS A RESULT. DRIEST
LOCATION IN THE CWA TUES LOOKS TO BE OVER ERN OHIO WHERE DRIER AIR
ALOFT BEGINS FEEDING INTO THE UPPER LOW WHICH MAY WORK TO SUPPRESS
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE
MID-LEVEL COLD POOL BEGINS TO DEPART TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AMPLY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY...AND UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN LOW END CHANCES OF
SHOWERS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND FAIRLY GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS
IN THE RIDGES. AS SHEAR INCREASES AFTER THIS TIME...MID-LEVEL
RIDGING STARTS TO IMPINGE...AND DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR FINALLY
STARTS TO WORK INTO THE REGION...SHOWER CHANCES DWINDLE TO LESS
THAN MENTIONABLE BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK NOW LOOKS RATHER DRY...WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING TOWARD NORMAL AS SUNSHINE SHOULD FINALLY
MAKE A RETURN TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE MID-WEEK UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR THE
CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CLOSE TO
THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM
PD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLDFRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS
AND DRIFTS SOUTH TUES LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER.
MVFR CIGS MUCH OF TUES...BUT COULD SEE IFR IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS
THAT PERSIST.

.AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW
DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 202217
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
617 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAINY AND COOL THROUGH MID-WEEK WHEN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHIFTS EASTWARD. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EARLY EVENING UPDATE TO ADD CAT POPS FARTHER SOUTH TONIGHT BASED
ON RADAR TRENDS SHOWING BANDS OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING WELL INTO SOUTHERN
OHIO. ALSO SPEED UP TIMING FOR SHOWERS INTO RIDGES EARLY TONIGHT.
MODEST QPF ADDED. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES OR WINDS. PREVIOUS
DISCO BELOW.


SW TROF AND ATTENDANT VORT MAX EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY CURRENTLY
SWINGING THROUGH ERN INDIANA SOUTH OF THE SFC NEARING LAKE HURON.
MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION PRODUCING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF TROF AXIS
OVER WV AND SW PA WILL PUSH EAST TONIGHT. THOSE CLOUDS WILL BE
REPLACED BY LOWER CLOUDS THIS EVENING KEEPING TEMPS MODERATED.

RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN QUITE NUMEROUS TODAY...BUT LITTLE MORE
THAN VIRGA HAS BEEN REPORTED UP TO THIS POINT AS DRY AIR FROM THE
MID LEVELS DOWN ARE KEEPING ANY RAIN SHOWERS FROM REACHING THE
GROUND. RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SW TROF ARE SHOWING UP
OVER WRN OHIO AND ARE TIMED TO REACH OUR WRN PERIPHERY BY ABOUT
21Z. BY 00Z ALL OF THE NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE THE SW TROF AXIS
THROUGH ERN OH WITH RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE
WNW. DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND BETTER FORCING WILL REMAIN
CLOSER TO THE LOW NEAR LAKE ERIE...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE
CATEGORICAL POPS THERE. ALTHOUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
BEGINS TO OUTRUN THE TROF AXIS ACROSS OUR SOUTH...ENOUGH MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS NRN WV. WILL NOT DEVIATE
FROM THE LIKELY POPS.

TONIGHT THE SFC LOW IS PULLED SOUTH AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES AS
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO CUT-OFF. AS THIS HAPPENS...ABUNDANT LLVL
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA KEEPING CLOUDS AND RAIN IN THE
FORECAST. AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY PASSES TUES...THE SFC-H8 LOW CORE
SHIFTS EAST BRINGING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LLVL WIND FIELD.
WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS IN FOR THE SE RIDGES AS A RESULT. DRIEST
LOCATION IN THE CWA TUES LOOKS TO BE OVER ERN OHIO WHERE DRIER AIR
ALOFT BEGINS FEEDING INTO THE UPPER LOW WHICH MAY WORK TO SUPPRESS
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE
MID-LEVEL COLD POOL BEGINS TO DEPART TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AMPLY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY...AND UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN LOW END CHANCES OF
SHOWERS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND FAIRLY GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS
IN THE RIDGES. AS SHEAR INCREASES AFTER THIS TIME...MID-LEVEL
RIDGING STARTS TO IMPINGE...AND DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR FINALLY
STARTS TO WORK INTO THE REGION...SHOWER CHANCES DWINDLE TO LESS
THAN MENTIONABLE BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK NOW LOOKS RATHER DRY...WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING TOWARD NORMAL AS SUNSHINE SHOULD FINALLY
MAKE A RETURN TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE MID-WEEK UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR THE
CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CLOSE TO
THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM
PD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLDFRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS
AND DRIFTS SOUTH TUES LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER.
MVFR CIGS MUCH OF TUES...BUT COULD SEE IFR IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS
THAT PERSIST.

.AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW
DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 202217
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
617 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAINY AND COOL THROUGH MID-WEEK WHEN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHIFTS EASTWARD. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EARLY EVENING UPDATE TO ADD CAT POPS FARTHER SOUTH TONIGHT BASED
ON RADAR TRENDS SHOWING BANDS OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING WELL INTO SOUTHERN
OHIO. ALSO SPEED UP TIMING FOR SHOWERS INTO RIDGES EARLY TONIGHT.
MODEST QPF ADDED. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES OR WINDS. PREVIOUS
DISCO BELOW.


SW TROF AND ATTENDANT VORT MAX EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY CURRENTLY
SWINGING THROUGH ERN INDIANA SOUTH OF THE SFC NEARING LAKE HURON.
MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION PRODUCING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF TROF AXIS
OVER WV AND SW PA WILL PUSH EAST TONIGHT. THOSE CLOUDS WILL BE
REPLACED BY LOWER CLOUDS THIS EVENING KEEPING TEMPS MODERATED.

RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN QUITE NUMEROUS TODAY...BUT LITTLE MORE
THAN VIRGA HAS BEEN REPORTED UP TO THIS POINT AS DRY AIR FROM THE
MID LEVELS DOWN ARE KEEPING ANY RAIN SHOWERS FROM REACHING THE
GROUND. RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SW TROF ARE SHOWING UP
OVER WRN OHIO AND ARE TIMED TO REACH OUR WRN PERIPHERY BY ABOUT
21Z. BY 00Z ALL OF THE NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE THE SW TROF AXIS
THROUGH ERN OH WITH RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE
WNW. DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND BETTER FORCING WILL REMAIN
CLOSER TO THE LOW NEAR LAKE ERIE...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE
CATEGORICAL POPS THERE. ALTHOUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
BEGINS TO OUTRUN THE TROF AXIS ACROSS OUR SOUTH...ENOUGH MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS NRN WV. WILL NOT DEVIATE
FROM THE LIKELY POPS.

TONIGHT THE SFC LOW IS PULLED SOUTH AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES AS
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO CUT-OFF. AS THIS HAPPENS...ABUNDANT LLVL
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA KEEPING CLOUDS AND RAIN IN THE
FORECAST. AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY PASSES TUES...THE SFC-H8 LOW CORE
SHIFTS EAST BRINGING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LLVL WIND FIELD.
WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS IN FOR THE SE RIDGES AS A RESULT. DRIEST
LOCATION IN THE CWA TUES LOOKS TO BE OVER ERN OHIO WHERE DRIER AIR
ALOFT BEGINS FEEDING INTO THE UPPER LOW WHICH MAY WORK TO SUPPRESS
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE
MID-LEVEL COLD POOL BEGINS TO DEPART TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AMPLY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY...AND UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN LOW END CHANCES OF
SHOWERS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND FAIRLY GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS
IN THE RIDGES. AS SHEAR INCREASES AFTER THIS TIME...MID-LEVEL
RIDGING STARTS TO IMPINGE...AND DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR FINALLY
STARTS TO WORK INTO THE REGION...SHOWER CHANCES DWINDLE TO LESS
THAN MENTIONABLE BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK NOW LOOKS RATHER DRY...WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING TOWARD NORMAL AS SUNSHINE SHOULD FINALLY
MAKE A RETURN TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE MID-WEEK UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR THE
CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CLOSE TO
THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM
PD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLDFRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS
AND DRIFTS SOUTH TUES LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER.
MVFR CIGS MUCH OF TUES...BUT COULD SEE IFR IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS
THAT PERSIST.

.AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW
DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 202217
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
617 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAINY AND COOL THROUGH MID-WEEK WHEN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHIFTS EASTWARD. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EARLY EVENING UPDATE TO ADD CAT POPS FARTHER SOUTH TONIGHT BASED
ON RADAR TRENDS SHOWING BANDS OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING WELL INTO SOUTHERN
OHIO. ALSO SPEED UP TIMING FOR SHOWERS INTO RIDGES EARLY TONIGHT.
MODEST QPF ADDED. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES OR WINDS. PREVIOUS
DISCO BELOW.


SW TROF AND ATTENDANT VORT MAX EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY CURRENTLY
SWINGING THROUGH ERN INDIANA SOUTH OF THE SFC NEARING LAKE HURON.
MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION PRODUCING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF TROF AXIS
OVER WV AND SW PA WILL PUSH EAST TONIGHT. THOSE CLOUDS WILL BE
REPLACED BY LOWER CLOUDS THIS EVENING KEEPING TEMPS MODERATED.

RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN QUITE NUMEROUS TODAY...BUT LITTLE MORE
THAN VIRGA HAS BEEN REPORTED UP TO THIS POINT AS DRY AIR FROM THE
MID LEVELS DOWN ARE KEEPING ANY RAIN SHOWERS FROM REACHING THE
GROUND. RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SW TROF ARE SHOWING UP
OVER WRN OHIO AND ARE TIMED TO REACH OUR WRN PERIPHERY BY ABOUT
21Z. BY 00Z ALL OF THE NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE THE SW TROF AXIS
THROUGH ERN OH WITH RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE
WNW. DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND BETTER FORCING WILL REMAIN
CLOSER TO THE LOW NEAR LAKE ERIE...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE
CATEGORICAL POPS THERE. ALTHOUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
BEGINS TO OUTRUN THE TROF AXIS ACROSS OUR SOUTH...ENOUGH MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS NRN WV. WILL NOT DEVIATE
FROM THE LIKELY POPS.

TONIGHT THE SFC LOW IS PULLED SOUTH AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES AS
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO CUT-OFF. AS THIS HAPPENS...ABUNDANT LLVL
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA KEEPING CLOUDS AND RAIN IN THE
FORECAST. AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY PASSES TUES...THE SFC-H8 LOW CORE
SHIFTS EAST BRINGING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LLVL WIND FIELD.
WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS IN FOR THE SE RIDGES AS A RESULT. DRIEST
LOCATION IN THE CWA TUES LOOKS TO BE OVER ERN OHIO WHERE DRIER AIR
ALOFT BEGINS FEEDING INTO THE UPPER LOW WHICH MAY WORK TO SUPPRESS
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE
MID-LEVEL COLD POOL BEGINS TO DEPART TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AMPLY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY...AND UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN LOW END CHANCES OF
SHOWERS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND FAIRLY GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS
IN THE RIDGES. AS SHEAR INCREASES AFTER THIS TIME...MID-LEVEL
RIDGING STARTS TO IMPINGE...AND DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR FINALLY
STARTS TO WORK INTO THE REGION...SHOWER CHANCES DWINDLE TO LESS
THAN MENTIONABLE BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK NOW LOOKS RATHER DRY...WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING TOWARD NORMAL AS SUNSHINE SHOULD FINALLY
MAKE A RETURN TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE MID-WEEK UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR THE
CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CLOSE TO
THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM
PD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLDFRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS
AND DRIFTS SOUTH TUES LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER.
MVFR CIGS MUCH OF TUES...BUT COULD SEE IFR IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS
THAT PERSIST.

.AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW
DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201833
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
233 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAINY AND COOL THROUGH MID-WEEK WHEN THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SW TROF AND ATTENDANT VORT MAX EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY CURRENTLY
SWINGING THROUGH ERN INDIANA SOUTH OF THE SFC NEARING LAKE HURON.
MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION PRODUCING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF TROF AXIS
OVER WV AND SW PA WILL PUSH EAST TONIGHT. THOSE CLOUDS WILL BE
REPLACED BY LOWER CLOUDS THIS EVENING KEEPING TEMPS MODERATED.

RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN QUITE NUMEROUS TODAY...BUT LITTLE MORE
THAN VIRGA HAS BEEN REPORTED UP TO THIS POINT AS DRY AIR FROM THE
MID LEVELS DOWN ARE KEEPING ANY RAIN SHOWERS FROM REACHING THE
GROUND. RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SW TROF ARE SHOWING UP
OVER WRN OHIO AND ARE TIMED TO REACH OUR WRN PERIPHERY BY ABOUT
21Z. BY 00Z ALL OF THE NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE THE SW TROF AXIS
THROUGH ERN OH WITH RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE
WNW. DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND BETTER FORCING WILL REMAIN
CLOSER TO THE LOW NEAR LAKE ERIE...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE
CATEGORICAL POPS THERE. ALTHOUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
BEGINS TO OUTRUN THE TROF AXIS ACROSS OUR SOUTH...ENOUGH MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS NRN WV. WILL NOT DEVIATE
FROM THE LIKELY POPS.

TONIGHT THE SFC LOW IS PULLED SOUTH AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES AS
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO CUT-OFF. AS THIS HAPPENS...ABUNDANT LLVL
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA KEEPING CLOUDS AND RAIN IN THE
FORECAST. AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY PASSES TUES...THE SFC-H8 LOW CORE
SHIFTS EAST BRINGING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LLVL WIND FIELD.
WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS IN FOR THE SE RIDGES AS A RESULT. DRIEST
LOCATION IN THE CWA TUES LOOKS TO BE OVER ERN OHIO WHERE DRIER AIR
ALOFT BEGINS FEEDING INTO THE UPPER LOW WHICH MAY WORK TO SUPPRESS
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE
MID-LEVEL COLD POOL BEGINS TO DEPART TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AMPLY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY...AND UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN LOW END CHANCES OF
SHOWERS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND FAIRLY GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS
IN THE RIDGES. AS SHEAR INCREASES AFTER THIS TIME...MID-LEVEL
RIDGING STARTS TO IMPINGE...AND DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR FINALLY
STARTS TO WORK INTO THE REGION...SHOWER CHANCES DWINDLE TO LESS
THAN MENTIONABLE BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK NOW LOOKS RATHER DRY...WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING TOWARD NORMAL AS SUNSHINE SHOULD FINALLY
MAKE A RETURN TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. FRIES


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE MID-WEEK UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR THE
CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CLOSE TO
THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM
PD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLDFRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS
AND DRIFTS SOUTH TUES LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER.
MVFR CIGS MUCH OF TUES...BUT COULD SEE IFR IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS
THAT PERSIST.

.AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW
DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201828
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
228 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAINY AND COOL THROUGH MID-WEEK WHEN THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS
EASTWARD. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SW TROF AND ATTENDANT VORT MAX EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY CURRENTLY
SWINGING THROUGH ERN INDIANA SOUTH OF THE SFC NEARING LAKE HURON.
MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION PRODUCING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF TROF AXIS
OVER WV AND SW PA WILL PUSH EAST TONIGHT. THOSE CLOUDS WILL BE
REPLACED BY LOWER CLOUDS THIS EVENING KEEPING TEMPS MODERATED.

RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN QUITE NUMEROUS TODAY...BUT LITTLE MORE
THAN VIRGA HAS BEEN REPORTED UP TO THIS POINT AS DRY AIR FROM THE
MID LEVELS DOWN ARE KEEPING ANY RAIN SHOWERS FROM REACHING THE
GROUND. RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SW TROF ARE SHOWING UP
OVER WRN OHIO AND ARE TIMED TO REACH OUR WRN PERIPHERY BY ABOUT
21Z. BY 00Z ALL OF THE NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE THE SW TROF AXIS
THROUGH ERN OH WITH RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE
WNW. DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND BETTER FORCING WILL REMAIN
CLOSER TO THE LOW NEAR LAKE ERIE...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE
CATEGORICAL POPS THERE. ALTHOUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
BEGINS TO OUTRUN THE TROF AXIS ACROSS OUR SOUTH...ENOUGH MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS NRN WV. WILL NOT DEVIATE
FROM THE LIKELY POPS.

TONIGHT THE SFC LOW IS PULLED SOUTH AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES AS
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO CUT-OFF. AS THIS HAPPENS...ABUNDANT LLVL
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA KEEPING CLOUDS AND RAIN IN THE
FORECAST. AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY PASSES TUES...THE SFC-H8 LOW CORE
SHIFTS EAST BRINGING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LLVL WIND FIELD.
WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS IN FOR THE SE RIDGES AS A RESULT. DRIEST
LOCATION IN THE CWA TUES LOOKS TO BE OVER ERN OHIO WHERE DRIER AIR
ALOFT BEGINS FEEDING INTO THE UPPER LOW WHICH MAY WORK TO SUPPRESS
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A JET STREAK MOVG THROUGH THE WRN FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFT UPR TROF
IS PROGGED TO CARVE A CUTOFF LOW OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION BY
LATE TUESDAY. COOLING MID LVLS WITH THAT SYSTEM WL LOWER CONVECTIVE
THRESHOLDS AND SPPRT SHWR ACTIVITY THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH PARTICULAR
EMPHASIS OVR UPSLOPE REGIONS TO THE N AND E OF PITTSBURGH.

BY THURSDAY...MDL WORLD PROJECTS SUFFICIENT COASTAL DVLPMNT/DEEPENING
TO DIMINISH POPS OVR THE IMMEDIATE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SHRTWV/VORT
PROJECTIONS THROUGH THE WRN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM IS MINIMAL...SO
HAVE MAINTAINED AT LEAST SLGT POPS OVR THE RIDGES THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR
THE CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CLOSE
TO THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM
PD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLDFRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS
AND DRIFTS SOUTH TUES LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER.
MVFR CIGS MUCH OF TUES...BUT COULD SEE IFR IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS
THAT PERSIST.

.AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW
DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201828
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
228 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAINY AND COOL THROUGH MID-WEEK WHEN THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS
EASTWARD. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SW TROF AND ATTENDANT VORT MAX EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY CURRENTLY
SWINGING THROUGH ERN INDIANA SOUTH OF THE SFC NEARING LAKE HURON.
MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION PRODUCING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF TROF AXIS
OVER WV AND SW PA WILL PUSH EAST TONIGHT. THOSE CLOUDS WILL BE
REPLACED BY LOWER CLOUDS THIS EVENING KEEPING TEMPS MODERATED.

RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN QUITE NUMEROUS TODAY...BUT LITTLE MORE
THAN VIRGA HAS BEEN REPORTED UP TO THIS POINT AS DRY AIR FROM THE
MID LEVELS DOWN ARE KEEPING ANY RAIN SHOWERS FROM REACHING THE
GROUND. RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SW TROF ARE SHOWING UP
OVER WRN OHIO AND ARE TIMED TO REACH OUR WRN PERIPHERY BY ABOUT
21Z. BY 00Z ALL OF THE NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE THE SW TROF AXIS
THROUGH ERN OH WITH RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE
WNW. DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND BETTER FORCING WILL REMAIN
CLOSER TO THE LOW NEAR LAKE ERIE...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE
CATEGORICAL POPS THERE. ALTHOUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
BEGINS TO OUTRUN THE TROF AXIS ACROSS OUR SOUTH...ENOUGH MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS NRN WV. WILL NOT DEVIATE
FROM THE LIKELY POPS.

TONIGHT THE SFC LOW IS PULLED SOUTH AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES AS
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO CUT-OFF. AS THIS HAPPENS...ABUNDANT LLVL
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA KEEPING CLOUDS AND RAIN IN THE
FORECAST. AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY PASSES TUES...THE SFC-H8 LOW CORE
SHIFTS EAST BRINGING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LLVL WIND FIELD.
WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS IN FOR THE SE RIDGES AS A RESULT. DRIEST
LOCATION IN THE CWA TUES LOOKS TO BE OVER ERN OHIO WHERE DRIER AIR
ALOFT BEGINS FEEDING INTO THE UPPER LOW WHICH MAY WORK TO SUPPRESS
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A JET STREAK MOVG THROUGH THE WRN FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFT UPR TROF
IS PROGGED TO CARVE A CUTOFF LOW OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION BY
LATE TUESDAY. COOLING MID LVLS WITH THAT SYSTEM WL LOWER CONVECTIVE
THRESHOLDS AND SPPRT SHWR ACTIVITY THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH PARTICULAR
EMPHASIS OVR UPSLOPE REGIONS TO THE N AND E OF PITTSBURGH.

BY THURSDAY...MDL WORLD PROJECTS SUFFICIENT COASTAL DVLPMNT/DEEPENING
TO DIMINISH POPS OVR THE IMMEDIATE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SHRTWV/VORT
PROJECTIONS THROUGH THE WRN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM IS MINIMAL...SO
HAVE MAINTAINED AT LEAST SLGT POPS OVR THE RIDGES THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR
THE CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CLOSE
TO THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM
PD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLDFRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS
AND DRIFTS SOUTH TUES LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER.
MVFR CIGS MUCH OF TUES...BUT COULD SEE IFR IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS
THAT PERSIST.

.AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW
DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201459
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1059 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES WILL RESUME AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SW TROF EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY CURRENTLY SWINGING AROUND THE SRN
END OF LAKE MI SOUTH OF THE SFC NEARING LAKE HURON. MID-LEVEL
DEFORMATION PRODUCING ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF TROF
AXIS. THESE CLOUDS...REPLACED BY LOWER CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WILL KEEP TEMPS RELEGATED INTO THE 50S WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF
SEEING SUNSHINE.

RADAR RETURNS ARE QUITE NUMEROUS AT THIS HOUR...BUT ITS TRACKING
LITTLE MORE THAN VIRGA AS DRY AIR FROM THE MID LEVELS DOWN ARE
KEEPING ANY RAIN SHOWERS FROM REACHING THE GROUND. AN AXIS OF
LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY MOVING INTO WV WILL
PUSH ENE THROUGH THE RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE MID-
LEVEL DEFORMATION...BUT WITH CURRENT DEW POINT SPREADS UP TO
12F...SATURATION OF THE LOW LEVELS WILL TAKE SOME TIME.

BY 00Z ALL OF THE NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE THE SW TROF AXIS THROUGH
ERN OH WITH RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE WNW.
DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND BETTER FORCING WILL REMAIN CLOSER
TO THE LOW NEAR LAKE ERIE...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE CATEGORICAL
POPS THERE. ALTHOUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
OUTRUN THE TROF AXIS ACROSS OUR SOUTH...ENOUGH MOISTURE IS
AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS NRN WV. WILL NOT DEVIATE FROM
THE LIKELY POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A JET STREAK MOVG THROUGH THE WRN FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFT UPR TROF
IS PROGGED TO CARVE A CUTOFF LOW OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION BY
LATE TUESDAY. COOLING MID LVLS WITH THAT SYSTEM WL LOWER CONVECTIVE
THRESHOLDS AND SPPRT SHWR ACTIVITY THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH PARTICULAR
EMPHASIS OVR UPSLOPE REGIONS TO THE N AND E OF PITTSBURGH.

BY THURSDAY...MDL WORLD PROJECTS SUFFICIENT COASTAL DVLPMNT/DEEPENING
TO DIMINISH POPS OVR THE IMMEDIATE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SHRTWV/VORT
PROJECTIONS THROUGH THE WRN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM IS MINIMAL...SO
HAVE MAINTAINED AT LEAST SLGT POPS OVR THE RIDGES THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR
THE CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CLOSE
TO THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM
PD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPD WITH INCRG AC THRU THIS AFTN AHD OF AN APCHG
SHRTWV. THIS SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS EXPD TO BRING MVFR
CONDS AND INCRG SHWR CHCS THIS EVE AND OVRNGT. FKL/DUJ COULD ALSO
SEE IFR CIGS LT TNGT AS LLVL MOISTURE POOLS.

.AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL THRU MID WK AS AN UPR LOW DRIFTS ACRS THE
RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201459
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1059 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES WILL RESUME AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SW TROF EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY CURRENTLY SWINGING AROUND THE SRN
END OF LAKE MI SOUTH OF THE SFC NEARING LAKE HURON. MID-LEVEL
DEFORMATION PRODUCING ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF TROF
AXIS. THESE CLOUDS...REPLACED BY LOWER CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WILL KEEP TEMPS RELEGATED INTO THE 50S WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF
SEEING SUNSHINE.

RADAR RETURNS ARE QUITE NUMEROUS AT THIS HOUR...BUT ITS TRACKING
LITTLE MORE THAN VIRGA AS DRY AIR FROM THE MID LEVELS DOWN ARE
KEEPING ANY RAIN SHOWERS FROM REACHING THE GROUND. AN AXIS OF
LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY MOVING INTO WV WILL
PUSH ENE THROUGH THE RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE MID-
LEVEL DEFORMATION...BUT WITH CURRENT DEW POINT SPREADS UP TO
12F...SATURATION OF THE LOW LEVELS WILL TAKE SOME TIME.

BY 00Z ALL OF THE NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE THE SW TROF AXIS THROUGH
ERN OH WITH RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE WNW.
DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND BETTER FORCING WILL REMAIN CLOSER
TO THE LOW NEAR LAKE ERIE...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE CATEGORICAL
POPS THERE. ALTHOUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
OUTRUN THE TROF AXIS ACROSS OUR SOUTH...ENOUGH MOISTURE IS
AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS NRN WV. WILL NOT DEVIATE FROM
THE LIKELY POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A JET STREAK MOVG THROUGH THE WRN FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFT UPR TROF
IS PROGGED TO CARVE A CUTOFF LOW OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION BY
LATE TUESDAY. COOLING MID LVLS WITH THAT SYSTEM WL LOWER CONVECTIVE
THRESHOLDS AND SPPRT SHWR ACTIVITY THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH PARTICULAR
EMPHASIS OVR UPSLOPE REGIONS TO THE N AND E OF PITTSBURGH.

BY THURSDAY...MDL WORLD PROJECTS SUFFICIENT COASTAL DVLPMNT/DEEPENING
TO DIMINISH POPS OVR THE IMMEDIATE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SHRTWV/VORT
PROJECTIONS THROUGH THE WRN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM IS MINIMAL...SO
HAVE MAINTAINED AT LEAST SLGT POPS OVR THE RIDGES THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR
THE CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CLOSE
TO THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM
PD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPD WITH INCRG AC THRU THIS AFTN AHD OF AN APCHG
SHRTWV. THIS SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS EXPD TO BRING MVFR
CONDS AND INCRG SHWR CHCS THIS EVE AND OVRNGT. FKL/DUJ COULD ALSO
SEE IFR CIGS LT TNGT AS LLVL MOISTURE POOLS.

.AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL THRU MID WK AS AN UPR LOW DRIFTS ACRS THE
RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








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