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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290404
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1204 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COLD THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT
RAIN OR SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..

COLD SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT
EAST OVERNIGHT. VERY DRY AIR MASS WITH SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT...TEMPERATURES MAY GET CLOSE TO RECORDS FOR SUNDAY MORNING.
THE RECORD IN PITTSBURGH FOR MARCH 29TH IS 13 SET IN 1923. SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND 850MB WARM ADVECTION PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO
THE 40S BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF AN INCOMING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INCREASES RAPIDLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY. WHILE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS OUT RATHER DRY...FAIRLY POTENT WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION LOOKS TO QUICKLY OVERCOME THIS DRY AIR WITH WIDESPREAD
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. MODEL SPREAD ON PRECIPITATION COVERAGE BY LATE
SUNDAY EVENING IS NOT VERY LARGE...NOR IS THE DIVERGENCE OF QPF
SOLUTIONS. ALL MODELS INDICATE A RATHER HIGH POP/LOW QPF TYPE OF
EVENT FOR SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE REAL TOUGH PART OF THE
FORECAST IS MORE LIKELY TO BE PRECIPITATION TYPE.

WHILE THERMAL PROFILES SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT DO NOT VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MODEL TO MODEL...SMALL BOUNDARY LAYER
DIFFERENCES AS WELL AS THE HANDLING OF QUICKLY ERODING COLD AIR
WITH STRONG ADVECTION AND A LACK OF AN INVERSION TO INHIBIT MIXING
ALL WILL WORK TOWARD MAKING PRECIPITATION ALL RAIN. HOWEVER...VERY
WIDE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AS WELL AS FAIRLY COLD INITIAL 850 MB
AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL WORK TOWARD MORE FROZEN
PRECIPITATION AT ONSET. IT DOES SEEM THAT AT LEAST INITIALLY
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO PARTIALLY BISECT THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION...HOWEVER DEEPER MOISTURE QUICKLY PEELS
OFF AS AS SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS LEAVES A BIT
LEANER MOIST LAYER BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION WITH LIFT AND
CONTINUED ENHANCED BAROCLINITY. THAT SAID...POPS WERE TOUGH TO
RULE OUT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
ZONES AND P-TYPES DO LOOK TO TREND TOWARD LIQUID FOR A TIME.

WHILE MOST OF THE AREA WILL TEMPORARILY DRY OUT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE SURFACE LOW ON MONDAY...THIS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE TEMPORARY.
ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NEXT LOW TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL SLIDE DOWN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. DEJU VU LOOKS TO HAPPEN AS WELL
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT AGAIN BISECTING THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
REGION AND COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH FAVORING AT LEAST SOME MIX WITH
SNOW...HOWEVER STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL FAVOR ALL LIQUID
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. POPS WERE INCREASED FOR THIS
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY AS MODEL SOLUTIONS REALLY SEEM TO HAVE FALLEN IN
LINE FOR FAVORING THAT TIME FRAME FOR WET WEATHER. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW A FRONT CROSSING THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS QUICKLY DIVERGE BY FRIDAY. HAVE THROWN OUT
THE FAST GFS OUTLIER AND STUCK CLOSER TO ECMWF FORECAST WHICH HAS
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT INDICATING THE FRONT WILL LIKELY HANG UP FOR
ANOTHER DAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THURSDAYS VALUES RISING TO MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. SW
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY WITH AN
OCCLUDED FRONT...AND AGAIN CROSSING LOW PRESSURE TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290404
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1204 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COLD THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT
RAIN OR SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..

COLD SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT
EAST OVERNIGHT. VERY DRY AIR MASS WITH SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT...TEMPERATURES MAY GET CLOSE TO RECORDS FOR SUNDAY MORNING.
THE RECORD IN PITTSBURGH FOR MARCH 29TH IS 13 SET IN 1923. SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND 850MB WARM ADVECTION PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO
THE 40S BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF AN INCOMING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INCREASES RAPIDLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY. WHILE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS OUT RATHER DRY...FAIRLY POTENT WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION LOOKS TO QUICKLY OVERCOME THIS DRY AIR WITH WIDESPREAD
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. MODEL SPREAD ON PRECIPITATION COVERAGE BY LATE
SUNDAY EVENING IS NOT VERY LARGE...NOR IS THE DIVERGENCE OF QPF
SOLUTIONS. ALL MODELS INDICATE A RATHER HIGH POP/LOW QPF TYPE OF
EVENT FOR SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE REAL TOUGH PART OF THE
FORECAST IS MORE LIKELY TO BE PRECIPITATION TYPE.

WHILE THERMAL PROFILES SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT DO NOT VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MODEL TO MODEL...SMALL BOUNDARY LAYER
DIFFERENCES AS WELL AS THE HANDLING OF QUICKLY ERODING COLD AIR
WITH STRONG ADVECTION AND A LACK OF AN INVERSION TO INHIBIT MIXING
ALL WILL WORK TOWARD MAKING PRECIPITATION ALL RAIN. HOWEVER...VERY
WIDE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AS WELL AS FAIRLY COLD INITIAL 850 MB
AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL WORK TOWARD MORE FROZEN
PRECIPITATION AT ONSET. IT DOES SEEM THAT AT LEAST INITIALLY
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO PARTIALLY BISECT THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION...HOWEVER DEEPER MOISTURE QUICKLY PEELS
OFF AS AS SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS LEAVES A BIT
LEANER MOIST LAYER BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION WITH LIFT AND
CONTINUED ENHANCED BAROCLINITY. THAT SAID...POPS WERE TOUGH TO
RULE OUT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
ZONES AND P-TYPES DO LOOK TO TREND TOWARD LIQUID FOR A TIME.

WHILE MOST OF THE AREA WILL TEMPORARILY DRY OUT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE SURFACE LOW ON MONDAY...THIS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE TEMPORARY.
ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NEXT LOW TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL SLIDE DOWN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. DEJU VU LOOKS TO HAPPEN AS WELL
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT AGAIN BISECTING THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
REGION AND COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH FAVORING AT LEAST SOME MIX WITH
SNOW...HOWEVER STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL FAVOR ALL LIQUID
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. POPS WERE INCREASED FOR THIS
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY AS MODEL SOLUTIONS REALLY SEEM TO HAVE FALLEN IN
LINE FOR FAVORING THAT TIME FRAME FOR WET WEATHER. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW A FRONT CROSSING THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS QUICKLY DIVERGE BY FRIDAY. HAVE THROWN OUT
THE FAST GFS OUTLIER AND STUCK CLOSER TO ECMWF FORECAST WHICH HAS
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT INDICATING THE FRONT WILL LIKELY HANG UP FOR
ANOTHER DAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THURSDAYS VALUES RISING TO MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. SW
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY WITH AN
OCCLUDED FRONT...AND AGAIN CROSSING LOW PRESSURE TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290126
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
926 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COLD THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT
RAIN OR SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT
EAST OVERNIGHT. VERY DRY AIR MASS WITH SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT...TEMPERATURES MAY GET CLOSE TO RECORDS FOR SUNDAY MORNING.
THE RECORD IN PITTSBURGH FOR MARCH 29TH IS 13 SET IN 1923. SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND 850MB WARM ADVECTION PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO
THE 40S BY LATE AFTERNOON.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF AN INCOMING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INCREASES RAPIDLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY. WHILE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS OUT RATHER DRY...FAIRLY POTENT WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION LOOKS TO QUICKLY OVERCOME THIS DRY AIR WITH WIDESPREAD
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. MODEL SPREAD ON PRECIPITATION COVERAGE BY LATE
SUNDAY EVENING IS NOT VERY LARGE...NOR IS THE DIVERGENCE OF QPF
SOLUTIONS. ALL MODELS INDICATE A RATHER HIGH POP/LOW QPF TYPE OF
EVENT FOR SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE REAL TOUGH PART OF THE
FORECAST IS MORE LIKELY TO BE PRECIPITATION TYPE.

WHILE THERMAL PROFILES SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT DO NOT VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MODEL TO MODEL...SMALL BOUNDARY LAYER
DIFFERENCES AS WELL AS THE HANDLING OF QUICKLY ERODING COLD AIR
WITH STRONG ADVECTION AND A LACK OF AN INVERSION TO INHIBIT MIXING
ALL WILL WORK TOWARD MAKING PRECIPITATION ALL RAIN. HOWEVER...VERY
WIDE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AS WELL AS FAIRLY COLD INITIAL 850 MB
AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL WORK TOWARD MORE FROZEN
PRECIPITATION AT ONSET. IT DOES SEEM THAT AT LEAST INITIALLY
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO PARTIALLY BISECT THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION...HOWEVER DEEPER MOISTURE QUICKLY PEELS
OFF AS AS SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS LEAVES A BIT
LEANER MOIST LAYER BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION WITH LIFT AND
CONTINUED ENHANCED BAROCLINITY. THAT SAID...POPS WERE TOUGH TO
RULE OUT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
ZONES AND P-TYPES DO LOOK TO TREND TOWARD LIQUID FOR A TIME.

WHILE MOST OF THE AREA WILL TEMPORARILY DRY OUT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE SURFACE LOW ON MONDAY...THIS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE TEMPORARY.
ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NEXT LOW TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL SLIDE DOWN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. DEJU VU LOOKS TO HAPPEN AS WELL
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT AGAIN BISECTING THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
REGION AND COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH FAVORING AT LEAST SOME MIX WITH
SNOW...HOWEVER STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL FAVOR ALL LIQUID
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. POPS WERE INCREASED FOR THIS
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY AS MODEL SOLUTIONS REALLY SEEM TO HAVE FALLEN IN
LINE FOR FAVORING THAT TIME FRAME FOR WET WEATHER. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW A FRONT CROSSING THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS QUICKLY DIVERGE BY FRIDAY. HAVE THROWN OUT
THE FAST GFS OUTLIER AND STUCK CLOSER TO ECMWF FORECAST WHICH HAS
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT INDICATING THE FRONT WILL LIKELY HANG UP FOR
ANOTHER DAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THURSDAYS VALUES RISING TO MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. SW
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY WITH AN
OCCLUDED FRONT...AND AGAIN CROSSING LOW PRESSURE TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290126
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
926 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COLD THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT
RAIN OR SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT
EAST OVERNIGHT. VERY DRY AIR MASS WITH SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT...TEMPERATURES MAY GET CLOSE TO RECORDS FOR SUNDAY MORNING.
THE RECORD IN PITTSBURGH FOR MARCH 29TH IS 13 SET IN 1923. SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND 850MB WARM ADVECTION PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO
THE 40S BY LATE AFTERNOON.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF AN INCOMING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INCREASES RAPIDLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY. WHILE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS OUT RATHER DRY...FAIRLY POTENT WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION LOOKS TO QUICKLY OVERCOME THIS DRY AIR WITH WIDESPREAD
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. MODEL SPREAD ON PRECIPITATION COVERAGE BY LATE
SUNDAY EVENING IS NOT VERY LARGE...NOR IS THE DIVERGENCE OF QPF
SOLUTIONS. ALL MODELS INDICATE A RATHER HIGH POP/LOW QPF TYPE OF
EVENT FOR SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE REAL TOUGH PART OF THE
FORECAST IS MORE LIKELY TO BE PRECIPITATION TYPE.

WHILE THERMAL PROFILES SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT DO NOT VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MODEL TO MODEL...SMALL BOUNDARY LAYER
DIFFERENCES AS WELL AS THE HANDLING OF QUICKLY ERODING COLD AIR
WITH STRONG ADVECTION AND A LACK OF AN INVERSION TO INHIBIT MIXING
ALL WILL WORK TOWARD MAKING PRECIPITATION ALL RAIN. HOWEVER...VERY
WIDE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AS WELL AS FAIRLY COLD INITIAL 850 MB
AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL WORK TOWARD MORE FROZEN
PRECIPITATION AT ONSET. IT DOES SEEM THAT AT LEAST INITIALLY
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO PARTIALLY BISECT THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION...HOWEVER DEEPER MOISTURE QUICKLY PEELS
OFF AS AS SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS LEAVES A BIT
LEANER MOIST LAYER BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION WITH LIFT AND
CONTINUED ENHANCED BAROCLINITY. THAT SAID...POPS WERE TOUGH TO
RULE OUT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
ZONES AND P-TYPES DO LOOK TO TREND TOWARD LIQUID FOR A TIME.

WHILE MOST OF THE AREA WILL TEMPORARILY DRY OUT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE SURFACE LOW ON MONDAY...THIS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE TEMPORARY.
ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NEXT LOW TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL SLIDE DOWN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. DEJU VU LOOKS TO HAPPEN AS WELL
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT AGAIN BISECTING THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
REGION AND COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH FAVORING AT LEAST SOME MIX WITH
SNOW...HOWEVER STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL FAVOR ALL LIQUID
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. POPS WERE INCREASED FOR THIS
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY AS MODEL SOLUTIONS REALLY SEEM TO HAVE FALLEN IN
LINE FOR FAVORING THAT TIME FRAME FOR WET WEATHER. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW A FRONT CROSSING THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS QUICKLY DIVERGE BY FRIDAY. HAVE THROWN OUT
THE FAST GFS OUTLIER AND STUCK CLOSER TO ECMWF FORECAST WHICH HAS
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT INDICATING THE FRONT WILL LIKELY HANG UP FOR
ANOTHER DAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THURSDAYS VALUES RISING TO MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. SW
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY WITH AN
OCCLUDED FRONT...AND AGAIN CROSSING LOW PRESSURE TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290126
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
926 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COLD THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT
RAIN OR SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT
EAST OVERNIGHT. VERY DRY AIR MASS WITH SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT...TEMPERATURES MAY GET CLOSE TO RECORDS FOR SUNDAY MORNING.
THE RECORD IN PITTSBURGH FOR MARCH 29TH IS 13 SET IN 1923. SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND 850MB WARM ADVECTION PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO
THE 40S BY LATE AFTERNOON.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF AN INCOMING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INCREASES RAPIDLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY. WHILE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS OUT RATHER DRY...FAIRLY POTENT WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION LOOKS TO QUICKLY OVERCOME THIS DRY AIR WITH WIDESPREAD
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. MODEL SPREAD ON PRECIPITATION COVERAGE BY LATE
SUNDAY EVENING IS NOT VERY LARGE...NOR IS THE DIVERGENCE OF QPF
SOLUTIONS. ALL MODELS INDICATE A RATHER HIGH POP/LOW QPF TYPE OF
EVENT FOR SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE REAL TOUGH PART OF THE
FORECAST IS MORE LIKELY TO BE PRECIPITATION TYPE.

WHILE THERMAL PROFILES SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT DO NOT VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MODEL TO MODEL...SMALL BOUNDARY LAYER
DIFFERENCES AS WELL AS THE HANDLING OF QUICKLY ERODING COLD AIR
WITH STRONG ADVECTION AND A LACK OF AN INVERSION TO INHIBIT MIXING
ALL WILL WORK TOWARD MAKING PRECIPITATION ALL RAIN. HOWEVER...VERY
WIDE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AS WELL AS FAIRLY COLD INITIAL 850 MB
AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL WORK TOWARD MORE FROZEN
PRECIPITATION AT ONSET. IT DOES SEEM THAT AT LEAST INITIALLY
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO PARTIALLY BISECT THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION...HOWEVER DEEPER MOISTURE QUICKLY PEELS
OFF AS AS SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS LEAVES A BIT
LEANER MOIST LAYER BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION WITH LIFT AND
CONTINUED ENHANCED BAROCLINITY. THAT SAID...POPS WERE TOUGH TO
RULE OUT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
ZONES AND P-TYPES DO LOOK TO TREND TOWARD LIQUID FOR A TIME.

WHILE MOST OF THE AREA WILL TEMPORARILY DRY OUT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE SURFACE LOW ON MONDAY...THIS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE TEMPORARY.
ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NEXT LOW TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL SLIDE DOWN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. DEJU VU LOOKS TO HAPPEN AS WELL
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT AGAIN BISECTING THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
REGION AND COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH FAVORING AT LEAST SOME MIX WITH
SNOW...HOWEVER STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL FAVOR ALL LIQUID
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. POPS WERE INCREASED FOR THIS
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY AS MODEL SOLUTIONS REALLY SEEM TO HAVE FALLEN IN
LINE FOR FAVORING THAT TIME FRAME FOR WET WEATHER. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW A FRONT CROSSING THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS QUICKLY DIVERGE BY FRIDAY. HAVE THROWN OUT
THE FAST GFS OUTLIER AND STUCK CLOSER TO ECMWF FORECAST WHICH HAS
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT INDICATING THE FRONT WILL LIKELY HANG UP FOR
ANOTHER DAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THURSDAYS VALUES RISING TO MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. SW
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY WITH AN
OCCLUDED FRONT...AND AGAIN CROSSING LOW PRESSURE TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290126
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
926 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COLD THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT
RAIN OR SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT
EAST OVERNIGHT. VERY DRY AIR MASS WITH SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT...TEMPERATURES MAY GET CLOSE TO RECORDS FOR SUNDAY MORNING.
THE RECORD IN PITTSBURGH FOR MARCH 29TH IS 13 SET IN 1923. SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND 850MB WARM ADVECTION PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO
THE 40S BY LATE AFTERNOON.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF AN INCOMING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INCREASES RAPIDLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY. WHILE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS OUT RATHER DRY...FAIRLY POTENT WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION LOOKS TO QUICKLY OVERCOME THIS DRY AIR WITH WIDESPREAD
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. MODEL SPREAD ON PRECIPITATION COVERAGE BY LATE
SUNDAY EVENING IS NOT VERY LARGE...NOR IS THE DIVERGENCE OF QPF
SOLUTIONS. ALL MODELS INDICATE A RATHER HIGH POP/LOW QPF TYPE OF
EVENT FOR SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE REAL TOUGH PART OF THE
FORECAST IS MORE LIKELY TO BE PRECIPITATION TYPE.

WHILE THERMAL PROFILES SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT DO NOT VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MODEL TO MODEL...SMALL BOUNDARY LAYER
DIFFERENCES AS WELL AS THE HANDLING OF QUICKLY ERODING COLD AIR
WITH STRONG ADVECTION AND A LACK OF AN INVERSION TO INHIBIT MIXING
ALL WILL WORK TOWARD MAKING PRECIPITATION ALL RAIN. HOWEVER...VERY
WIDE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AS WELL AS FAIRLY COLD INITIAL 850 MB
AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL WORK TOWARD MORE FROZEN
PRECIPITATION AT ONSET. IT DOES SEEM THAT AT LEAST INITIALLY
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO PARTIALLY BISECT THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION...HOWEVER DEEPER MOISTURE QUICKLY PEELS
OFF AS AS SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS LEAVES A BIT
LEANER MOIST LAYER BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION WITH LIFT AND
CONTINUED ENHANCED BAROCLINITY. THAT SAID...POPS WERE TOUGH TO
RULE OUT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
ZONES AND P-TYPES DO LOOK TO TREND TOWARD LIQUID FOR A TIME.

WHILE MOST OF THE AREA WILL TEMPORARILY DRY OUT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE SURFACE LOW ON MONDAY...THIS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE TEMPORARY.
ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NEXT LOW TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL SLIDE DOWN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. DEJU VU LOOKS TO HAPPEN AS WELL
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT AGAIN BISECTING THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
REGION AND COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH FAVORING AT LEAST SOME MIX WITH
SNOW...HOWEVER STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL FAVOR ALL LIQUID
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. POPS WERE INCREASED FOR THIS
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY AS MODEL SOLUTIONS REALLY SEEM TO HAVE FALLEN IN
LINE FOR FAVORING THAT TIME FRAME FOR WET WEATHER. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW A FRONT CROSSING THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS QUICKLY DIVERGE BY FRIDAY. HAVE THROWN OUT
THE FAST GFS OUTLIER AND STUCK CLOSER TO ECMWF FORECAST WHICH HAS
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT INDICATING THE FRONT WILL LIKELY HANG UP FOR
ANOTHER DAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THURSDAYS VALUES RISING TO MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. SW
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY WITH AN
OCCLUDED FRONT...AND AGAIN CROSSING LOW PRESSURE TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 282158
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
558 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COLD THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT
RAIN OR SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EARLY EVENING UPDATE FOR HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY PLANTED OVER THE AREA AND SURFACE
FLOW DIMINISHES TO CALM. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE TROUBLE DE-COUPLING THE LOWER LEVELS
TONIGHT. THIS MEANS THAT DESPITE WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE
ABOVE 925MB...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL REMAIN SOME 15 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGE. ANY REMAINING SNOW COVER THAT SURVIVES
MELTING AND SUBLIMATION TODAY COULD LOCALLY DRIVE SOME
TEMPERATURES DOWN EVEN FURTHER.

AXIS OF THE SURFACE HIGH SIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY...ALLOWING
LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. SUNSHINE AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR BACK TO THE AREA AS A
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. COPIOUS DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION AT BAY THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY...BUT RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE QUICKLY HEADING INTO THE SHORT-TERM.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF AN INCOMING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INCREASES RAPIDLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY. WHILE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS OUT RATHER DRY...FAIRLY POTENT WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION LOOKS TO QUICKLY OVERCOME THIS DRY AIR WITH WIDESPREAD
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. MODEL SPREAD ON PRECIPITATION COVERAGE BY LATE
SUNDAY EVENING IS NOT VERY LARGE...NOR IS THE DIVERGENCE OF QPF
SOLUTIONS. ALL MODELS INDICATE A RATHER HIGH POP/LOW QPF TYPE OF
EVENT FOR SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE REAL TOUGH PART OF THE
FORECAST IS MORE LIKELY TO BE PRECIPITATION TYPE.

WHILE THERMAL PROFILES SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT DO NOT VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MODEL TO MODEL...SMALL BOUNDARY LAYER
DIFFERENCES AS WELL AS THE HANDLING OF QUICKLY ERODING COLD AIR
WITH STRONG ADVECTION AND A LACK OF AN INVERSION TO INHIBIT MIXING
ALL WILL WORK TOWARD MAKING PRECIPITATION ALL RAIN. HOWEVER...VERY
WIDE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AS WELL AS FAIRLY COLD INITIAL 850 MB
AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL WORK TOWARD MORE FROZEN
PRECIPITATION AT ONSET. IT DOES SEEM THAT AT LEAST INITIALLY
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO PARTIALLY BISECT THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION...HOWEVER DEEPER MOISTURE QUICKLY PEELS
OFF AS AS SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS LEAVES A BIT
LEANER MOIST LAYER BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION WITH LIFT AND
CONTINUED ENHANCED BAROCLINITY. THAT SAID...POPS WERE TOUGH TO
RULE OUT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
ZONES AND P-TYPES DO LOOK TO TREND TOWARD LIQUID FOR A TIME.

WHILE MOST OF THE AREA WILL TEMPORARILY DRY OUT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE SURFACE LOW ON MONDAY...THIS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE TEMPORARY.
ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NEXT LOW TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL SLIDE DOWN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. DEJU VU LOOKS TO HAPPEN AS WELL
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT AGAIN BISECTING THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
REGION AND COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH FAVORING AT LEAST SOME MIX WITH
SNOW...HOWEVER STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL FAVOR ALL LIQUID
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. POPS WERE INCREASED FOR THIS
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY AS MODEL SOLUTIONS REALLY SEEM TO HAVE FALLEN IN
LINE FOR FAVORING THAT TIME FRAME FOR WET WEATHER. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW A FRONT CROSSING THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS QUICKLY DIVERGE BY FRIDAY. HAVE THROWN OUT
THE FAST GFS OUTLIER AND STUCK CLOSER TO ECMWF FORECAST WHICH HAS
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT INDICATING THE FRONT WILL LIKELY HANG UP FOR
ANOTHER DAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THURSDAYS VALUES RISING TO MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. SW
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY WITH AN
OCCLUDED FRONT...AND AGAIN CROSSING LOW PRESSURE TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.


&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$












000
FXUS61 KPBZ 282158
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
558 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COLD THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT
RAIN OR SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EARLY EVENING UPDATE FOR HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY PLANTED OVER THE AREA AND SURFACE
FLOW DIMINISHES TO CALM. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE TROUBLE DE-COUPLING THE LOWER LEVELS
TONIGHT. THIS MEANS THAT DESPITE WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE
ABOVE 925MB...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL REMAIN SOME 15 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGE. ANY REMAINING SNOW COVER THAT SURVIVES
MELTING AND SUBLIMATION TODAY COULD LOCALLY DRIVE SOME
TEMPERATURES DOWN EVEN FURTHER.

AXIS OF THE SURFACE HIGH SIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY...ALLOWING
LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. SUNSHINE AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR BACK TO THE AREA AS A
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. COPIOUS DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION AT BAY THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY...BUT RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE QUICKLY HEADING INTO THE SHORT-TERM.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF AN INCOMING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INCREASES RAPIDLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY. WHILE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS OUT RATHER DRY...FAIRLY POTENT WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION LOOKS TO QUICKLY OVERCOME THIS DRY AIR WITH WIDESPREAD
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. MODEL SPREAD ON PRECIPITATION COVERAGE BY LATE
SUNDAY EVENING IS NOT VERY LARGE...NOR IS THE DIVERGENCE OF QPF
SOLUTIONS. ALL MODELS INDICATE A RATHER HIGH POP/LOW QPF TYPE OF
EVENT FOR SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE REAL TOUGH PART OF THE
FORECAST IS MORE LIKELY TO BE PRECIPITATION TYPE.

WHILE THERMAL PROFILES SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT DO NOT VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MODEL TO MODEL...SMALL BOUNDARY LAYER
DIFFERENCES AS WELL AS THE HANDLING OF QUICKLY ERODING COLD AIR
WITH STRONG ADVECTION AND A LACK OF AN INVERSION TO INHIBIT MIXING
ALL WILL WORK TOWARD MAKING PRECIPITATION ALL RAIN. HOWEVER...VERY
WIDE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AS WELL AS FAIRLY COLD INITIAL 850 MB
AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL WORK TOWARD MORE FROZEN
PRECIPITATION AT ONSET. IT DOES SEEM THAT AT LEAST INITIALLY
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO PARTIALLY BISECT THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION...HOWEVER DEEPER MOISTURE QUICKLY PEELS
OFF AS AS SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS LEAVES A BIT
LEANER MOIST LAYER BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION WITH LIFT AND
CONTINUED ENHANCED BAROCLINITY. THAT SAID...POPS WERE TOUGH TO
RULE OUT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
ZONES AND P-TYPES DO LOOK TO TREND TOWARD LIQUID FOR A TIME.

WHILE MOST OF THE AREA WILL TEMPORARILY DRY OUT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE SURFACE LOW ON MONDAY...THIS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE TEMPORARY.
ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NEXT LOW TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL SLIDE DOWN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. DEJU VU LOOKS TO HAPPEN AS WELL
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT AGAIN BISECTING THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
REGION AND COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH FAVORING AT LEAST SOME MIX WITH
SNOW...HOWEVER STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL FAVOR ALL LIQUID
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. POPS WERE INCREASED FOR THIS
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY AS MODEL SOLUTIONS REALLY SEEM TO HAVE FALLEN IN
LINE FOR FAVORING THAT TIME FRAME FOR WET WEATHER. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW A FRONT CROSSING THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS QUICKLY DIVERGE BY FRIDAY. HAVE THROWN OUT
THE FAST GFS OUTLIER AND STUCK CLOSER TO ECMWF FORECAST WHICH HAS
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT INDICATING THE FRONT WILL LIKELY HANG UP FOR
ANOTHER DAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THURSDAYS VALUES RISING TO MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. SW
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY WITH AN
OCCLUDED FRONT...AND AGAIN CROSSING LOW PRESSURE TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.


&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$













000
FXUS61 KPBZ 282158
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
558 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COLD THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT
RAIN OR SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EARLY EVENING UPDATE FOR HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY PLANTED OVER THE AREA AND SURFACE
FLOW DIMINISHES TO CALM. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE TROUBLE DE-COUPLING THE LOWER LEVELS
TONIGHT. THIS MEANS THAT DESPITE WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE
ABOVE 925MB...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL REMAIN SOME 15 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGE. ANY REMAINING SNOW COVER THAT SURVIVES
MELTING AND SUBLIMATION TODAY COULD LOCALLY DRIVE SOME
TEMPERATURES DOWN EVEN FURTHER.

AXIS OF THE SURFACE HIGH SIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY...ALLOWING
LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. SUNSHINE AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR BACK TO THE AREA AS A
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. COPIOUS DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION AT BAY THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY...BUT RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE QUICKLY HEADING INTO THE SHORT-TERM.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF AN INCOMING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INCREASES RAPIDLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY. WHILE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS OUT RATHER DRY...FAIRLY POTENT WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION LOOKS TO QUICKLY OVERCOME THIS DRY AIR WITH WIDESPREAD
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. MODEL SPREAD ON PRECIPITATION COVERAGE BY LATE
SUNDAY EVENING IS NOT VERY LARGE...NOR IS THE DIVERGENCE OF QPF
SOLUTIONS. ALL MODELS INDICATE A RATHER HIGH POP/LOW QPF TYPE OF
EVENT FOR SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE REAL TOUGH PART OF THE
FORECAST IS MORE LIKELY TO BE PRECIPITATION TYPE.

WHILE THERMAL PROFILES SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT DO NOT VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MODEL TO MODEL...SMALL BOUNDARY LAYER
DIFFERENCES AS WELL AS THE HANDLING OF QUICKLY ERODING COLD AIR
WITH STRONG ADVECTION AND A LACK OF AN INVERSION TO INHIBIT MIXING
ALL WILL WORK TOWARD MAKING PRECIPITATION ALL RAIN. HOWEVER...VERY
WIDE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AS WELL AS FAIRLY COLD INITIAL 850 MB
AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL WORK TOWARD MORE FROZEN
PRECIPITATION AT ONSET. IT DOES SEEM THAT AT LEAST INITIALLY
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO PARTIALLY BISECT THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION...HOWEVER DEEPER MOISTURE QUICKLY PEELS
OFF AS AS SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS LEAVES A BIT
LEANER MOIST LAYER BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION WITH LIFT AND
CONTINUED ENHANCED BAROCLINITY. THAT SAID...POPS WERE TOUGH TO
RULE OUT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
ZONES AND P-TYPES DO LOOK TO TREND TOWARD LIQUID FOR A TIME.

WHILE MOST OF THE AREA WILL TEMPORARILY DRY OUT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE SURFACE LOW ON MONDAY...THIS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE TEMPORARY.
ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NEXT LOW TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL SLIDE DOWN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. DEJU VU LOOKS TO HAPPEN AS WELL
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT AGAIN BISECTING THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
REGION AND COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH FAVORING AT LEAST SOME MIX WITH
SNOW...HOWEVER STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL FAVOR ALL LIQUID
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. POPS WERE INCREASED FOR THIS
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY AS MODEL SOLUTIONS REALLY SEEM TO HAVE FALLEN IN
LINE FOR FAVORING THAT TIME FRAME FOR WET WEATHER. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW A FRONT CROSSING THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS QUICKLY DIVERGE BY FRIDAY. HAVE THROWN OUT
THE FAST GFS OUTLIER AND STUCK CLOSER TO ECMWF FORECAST WHICH HAS
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT INDICATING THE FRONT WILL LIKELY HANG UP FOR
ANOTHER DAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THURSDAYS VALUES RISING TO MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. SW
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY WITH AN
OCCLUDED FRONT...AND AGAIN CROSSING LOW PRESSURE TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.


&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$













000
FXUS61 KPBZ 282158
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
558 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COLD THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT
RAIN OR SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EARLY EVENING UPDATE FOR HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY PLANTED OVER THE AREA AND SURFACE
FLOW DIMINISHES TO CALM. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE TROUBLE DE-COUPLING THE LOWER LEVELS
TONIGHT. THIS MEANS THAT DESPITE WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE
ABOVE 925MB...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL REMAIN SOME 15 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGE. ANY REMAINING SNOW COVER THAT SURVIVES
MELTING AND SUBLIMATION TODAY COULD LOCALLY DRIVE SOME
TEMPERATURES DOWN EVEN FURTHER.

AXIS OF THE SURFACE HIGH SIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY...ALLOWING
LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. SUNSHINE AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR BACK TO THE AREA AS A
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. COPIOUS DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION AT BAY THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY...BUT RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE QUICKLY HEADING INTO THE SHORT-TERM.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF AN INCOMING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INCREASES RAPIDLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY. WHILE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS OUT RATHER DRY...FAIRLY POTENT WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION LOOKS TO QUICKLY OVERCOME THIS DRY AIR WITH WIDESPREAD
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. MODEL SPREAD ON PRECIPITATION COVERAGE BY LATE
SUNDAY EVENING IS NOT VERY LARGE...NOR IS THE DIVERGENCE OF QPF
SOLUTIONS. ALL MODELS INDICATE A RATHER HIGH POP/LOW QPF TYPE OF
EVENT FOR SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE REAL TOUGH PART OF THE
FORECAST IS MORE LIKELY TO BE PRECIPITATION TYPE.

WHILE THERMAL PROFILES SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT DO NOT VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MODEL TO MODEL...SMALL BOUNDARY LAYER
DIFFERENCES AS WELL AS THE HANDLING OF QUICKLY ERODING COLD AIR
WITH STRONG ADVECTION AND A LACK OF AN INVERSION TO INHIBIT MIXING
ALL WILL WORK TOWARD MAKING PRECIPITATION ALL RAIN. HOWEVER...VERY
WIDE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AS WELL AS FAIRLY COLD INITIAL 850 MB
AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL WORK TOWARD MORE FROZEN
PRECIPITATION AT ONSET. IT DOES SEEM THAT AT LEAST INITIALLY
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO PARTIALLY BISECT THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION...HOWEVER DEEPER MOISTURE QUICKLY PEELS
OFF AS AS SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS LEAVES A BIT
LEANER MOIST LAYER BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION WITH LIFT AND
CONTINUED ENHANCED BAROCLINITY. THAT SAID...POPS WERE TOUGH TO
RULE OUT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
ZONES AND P-TYPES DO LOOK TO TREND TOWARD LIQUID FOR A TIME.

WHILE MOST OF THE AREA WILL TEMPORARILY DRY OUT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE SURFACE LOW ON MONDAY...THIS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE TEMPORARY.
ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NEXT LOW TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL SLIDE DOWN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. DEJU VU LOOKS TO HAPPEN AS WELL
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT AGAIN BISECTING THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
REGION AND COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH FAVORING AT LEAST SOME MIX WITH
SNOW...HOWEVER STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL FAVOR ALL LIQUID
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. POPS WERE INCREASED FOR THIS
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY AS MODEL SOLUTIONS REALLY SEEM TO HAVE FALLEN IN
LINE FOR FAVORING THAT TIME FRAME FOR WET WEATHER. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW A FRONT CROSSING THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS QUICKLY DIVERGE BY FRIDAY. HAVE THROWN OUT
THE FAST GFS OUTLIER AND STUCK CLOSER TO ECMWF FORECAST WHICH HAS
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT INDICATING THE FRONT WILL LIKELY HANG UP FOR
ANOTHER DAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THURSDAYS VALUES RISING TO MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. SW
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY WITH AN
OCCLUDED FRONT...AND AGAIN CROSSING LOW PRESSURE TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.


&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$












000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281841
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
241 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING WEAK ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS DISSIPATING AS THE FOCUS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS
EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN...IS BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO OUR WEST. PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BEGIN TO RELAX AS WE TRANSITION TO HIGH PRESSURE BUT BEFORE
IT DOES...BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR AND KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY PLANTED OVER THE AREA AND
SURFACE FLOW DIMINISHES TO CALM. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WEAK
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE TROUBLE DE-COUPLING
THE LOWER LEVELS TONIGHT. THIS MEANS THAT DESPITE WARM AIR
ADVECTION TAKING PLACE ABOVE 925MB...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
REMAIN SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGE. ANY REMAINING SNOW
COVER THAT SURVIVES MELTING AND SUBLIMATION TODAY COULD LOCALLY
DRIVE SOME TEMPERATURES DOWN EVEN FURTHER.

AXIS OF THE SURFACE HIGH SIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY...ALLOWING
LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. SUNSHINE AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR BACK TO THE AREA AS A
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. COPIOUS DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION AT BAY THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY...BUT RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE QUICKLY HEADING INTO THE SHORT-TERM.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF AN INCOMING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INCREASES RAPIDLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY. WHILE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS OUT RATHER DRY...FAIRLY POTENT WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION LOOKS TO QUICKLY OVERCOME THIS DRY AIR WITH WIDESPREAD
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. MODEL SPREAD ON PRECIPITATION COVERAGE BY LATE
SUNDAY EVENING IS NOT VERY LARGE...NOR IS THE DIVERGENCE OF QPF
SOLUTIONS. ALL MODELS INDICATE A RATHER HIGH POP/LOW QPF TYPE OF
EVENT FOR SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE REAL TOUGH PART OF THE
FORECAST IS MORE LIKELY TO BE PRECIPITATION TYPE.

WHILE THERMAL PROFILES SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT DO NOT VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MODEL TO MODEL...SMALL BOUNDARY LAYER
DIFFERENCES AS WELL AS THE HANDLING OF QUICKLY ERODING COLD AIR
WITH STRONG ADVECTION AND A LACK OF AN INVERSION TO INHIBIT MIXING
ALL WILL WORK TOWARD MAKING PRECIPITATION ALL RAIN. HOWEVER...VERY
WIDE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AS WELL AS FAIRLY COLD INITIAL 850 MB
AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL WORK TOWARD MORE FROZEN
PRECIPITATION AT ONSET. IT DOES SEEM THAT AT LEAST INITIALLY
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO PARTIALLY BISECT THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION...HOWEVER DEEPER MOISTURE QUICKLY PEELS
OFF AS AS SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS LEAVES A BIT
LEANER MOIST LAYER BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION WITH LIFT AND
CONTINUED ENHANCED BAROCLINITY. THAT SAID...POPS WERE TOUGH TO
RULE OUT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
ZONES AND P-TYPES DO LOOK TO TREND TOWARD LIQUID FOR A TIME.

WHILE MOST OF THE AREA WILL TEMPORARILY DRY OUT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE SURFACE LOW ON MONDAY...THIS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE TEMPORARY.
ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NEXT LOW TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL SLIDE DOWN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. DEJU VU LOOKS TO HAPPEN AS WELL
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT AGAIN BISECTING THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
REGION AND COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH FAVORING AT LEAST SOME MIX WITH
SNOW...HOWEVER STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL FAVOR ALL LIQUID
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. POPS WERE INCREASED FOR THIS
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY AS MODEL SOLUTIONS REALLY SEEM TO HAVE FALLEN IN
LINE FOR FAVORING THAT TIME FRAME FOR WET WEATHER. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW A FRONT CROSSING THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS QUICKLY DIVERGE BY FRIDAY. HAVE THROWN OUT
THE FAST GFS OUTLIER AND STUCK CLOSER TO ECMWF FORECAST WHICH HAS
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT INDICATING THE FRONT WILL LIKELY HANG UP FOR
ANOTHER DAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THURSDAYS VALUES RISING TO MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST HAS IMPROVED ALL TERMINALS TO
VFR...BUT SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL HOLD IN THE EAST THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...SO WINDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED...BUT THEY WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING THE FLOW TO LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY.
THIS IS AHEAD OF A RELATIVELY DRY SYSTEM THAT WILL ENTER SUNDAY
NIGHT...JUST OUTSIDE OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
SUNDAY NIGHT FRONTAL SYSTEM. ANOTHER ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281841
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
241 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING WEAK ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS DISSIPATING AS THE FOCUS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS
EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN...IS BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO OUR WEST. PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BEGIN TO RELAX AS WE TRANSITION TO HIGH PRESSURE BUT BEFORE
IT DOES...BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR AND KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY PLANTED OVER THE AREA AND
SURFACE FLOW DIMINISHES TO CALM. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WEAK
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE TROUBLE DE-COUPLING
THE LOWER LEVELS TONIGHT. THIS MEANS THAT DESPITE WARM AIR
ADVECTION TAKING PLACE ABOVE 925MB...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
REMAIN SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGE. ANY REMAINING SNOW
COVER THAT SURVIVES MELTING AND SUBLIMATION TODAY COULD LOCALLY
DRIVE SOME TEMPERATURES DOWN EVEN FURTHER.

AXIS OF THE SURFACE HIGH SIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY...ALLOWING
LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. SUNSHINE AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR BACK TO THE AREA AS A
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. COPIOUS DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION AT BAY THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY...BUT RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE QUICKLY HEADING INTO THE SHORT-TERM.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF AN INCOMING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INCREASES RAPIDLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY. WHILE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS OUT RATHER DRY...FAIRLY POTENT WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION LOOKS TO QUICKLY OVERCOME THIS DRY AIR WITH WIDESPREAD
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. MODEL SPREAD ON PRECIPITATION COVERAGE BY LATE
SUNDAY EVENING IS NOT VERY LARGE...NOR IS THE DIVERGENCE OF QPF
SOLUTIONS. ALL MODELS INDICATE A RATHER HIGH POP/LOW QPF TYPE OF
EVENT FOR SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE REAL TOUGH PART OF THE
FORECAST IS MORE LIKELY TO BE PRECIPITATION TYPE.

WHILE THERMAL PROFILES SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT DO NOT VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MODEL TO MODEL...SMALL BOUNDARY LAYER
DIFFERENCES AS WELL AS THE HANDLING OF QUICKLY ERODING COLD AIR
WITH STRONG ADVECTION AND A LACK OF AN INVERSION TO INHIBIT MIXING
ALL WILL WORK TOWARD MAKING PRECIPITATION ALL RAIN. HOWEVER...VERY
WIDE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AS WELL AS FAIRLY COLD INITIAL 850 MB
AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL WORK TOWARD MORE FROZEN
PRECIPITATION AT ONSET. IT DOES SEEM THAT AT LEAST INITIALLY
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO PARTIALLY BISECT THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION...HOWEVER DEEPER MOISTURE QUICKLY PEELS
OFF AS AS SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS LEAVES A BIT
LEANER MOIST LAYER BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION WITH LIFT AND
CONTINUED ENHANCED BAROCLINITY. THAT SAID...POPS WERE TOUGH TO
RULE OUT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
ZONES AND P-TYPES DO LOOK TO TREND TOWARD LIQUID FOR A TIME.

WHILE MOST OF THE AREA WILL TEMPORARILY DRY OUT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE SURFACE LOW ON MONDAY...THIS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE TEMPORARY.
ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NEXT LOW TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL SLIDE DOWN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. DEJU VU LOOKS TO HAPPEN AS WELL
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT AGAIN BISECTING THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
REGION AND COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH FAVORING AT LEAST SOME MIX WITH
SNOW...HOWEVER STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL FAVOR ALL LIQUID
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. POPS WERE INCREASED FOR THIS
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY AS MODEL SOLUTIONS REALLY SEEM TO HAVE FALLEN IN
LINE FOR FAVORING THAT TIME FRAME FOR WET WEATHER. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW A FRONT CROSSING THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS QUICKLY DIVERGE BY FRIDAY. HAVE THROWN OUT
THE FAST GFS OUTLIER AND STUCK CLOSER TO ECMWF FORECAST WHICH HAS
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT INDICATING THE FRONT WILL LIKELY HANG UP FOR
ANOTHER DAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THURSDAYS VALUES RISING TO MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST HAS IMPROVED ALL TERMINALS TO
VFR...BUT SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL HOLD IN THE EAST THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...SO WINDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED...BUT THEY WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING THE FLOW TO LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY.
THIS IS AHEAD OF A RELATIVELY DRY SYSTEM THAT WILL ENTER SUNDAY
NIGHT...JUST OUTSIDE OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
SUNDAY NIGHT FRONTAL SYSTEM. ANOTHER ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281841
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
241 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING WEAK ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS DISSIPATING AS THE FOCUS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS
EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN...IS BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO OUR WEST. PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BEGIN TO RELAX AS WE TRANSITION TO HIGH PRESSURE BUT BEFORE
IT DOES...BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR AND KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY PLANTED OVER THE AREA AND
SURFACE FLOW DIMINISHES TO CALM. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WEAK
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE TROUBLE DE-COUPLING
THE LOWER LEVELS TONIGHT. THIS MEANS THAT DESPITE WARM AIR
ADVECTION TAKING PLACE ABOVE 925MB...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
REMAIN SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGE. ANY REMAINING SNOW
COVER THAT SURVIVES MELTING AND SUBLIMATION TODAY COULD LOCALLY
DRIVE SOME TEMPERATURES DOWN EVEN FURTHER.

AXIS OF THE SURFACE HIGH SIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY...ALLOWING
LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. SUNSHINE AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR BACK TO THE AREA AS A
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. COPIOUS DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION AT BAY THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY...BUT RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE QUICKLY HEADING INTO THE SHORT-TERM.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF AN INCOMING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INCREASES RAPIDLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY. WHILE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS OUT RATHER DRY...FAIRLY POTENT WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION LOOKS TO QUICKLY OVERCOME THIS DRY AIR WITH WIDESPREAD
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. MODEL SPREAD ON PRECIPITATION COVERAGE BY LATE
SUNDAY EVENING IS NOT VERY LARGE...NOR IS THE DIVERGENCE OF QPF
SOLUTIONS. ALL MODELS INDICATE A RATHER HIGH POP/LOW QPF TYPE OF
EVENT FOR SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE REAL TOUGH PART OF THE
FORECAST IS MORE LIKELY TO BE PRECIPITATION TYPE.

WHILE THERMAL PROFILES SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT DO NOT VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MODEL TO MODEL...SMALL BOUNDARY LAYER
DIFFERENCES AS WELL AS THE HANDLING OF QUICKLY ERODING COLD AIR
WITH STRONG ADVECTION AND A LACK OF AN INVERSION TO INHIBIT MIXING
ALL WILL WORK TOWARD MAKING PRECIPITATION ALL RAIN. HOWEVER...VERY
WIDE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AS WELL AS FAIRLY COLD INITIAL 850 MB
AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL WORK TOWARD MORE FROZEN
PRECIPITATION AT ONSET. IT DOES SEEM THAT AT LEAST INITIALLY
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO PARTIALLY BISECT THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION...HOWEVER DEEPER MOISTURE QUICKLY PEELS
OFF AS AS SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS LEAVES A BIT
LEANER MOIST LAYER BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION WITH LIFT AND
CONTINUED ENHANCED BAROCLINITY. THAT SAID...POPS WERE TOUGH TO
RULE OUT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
ZONES AND P-TYPES DO LOOK TO TREND TOWARD LIQUID FOR A TIME.

WHILE MOST OF THE AREA WILL TEMPORARILY DRY OUT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE SURFACE LOW ON MONDAY...THIS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE TEMPORARY.
ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NEXT LOW TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL SLIDE DOWN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. DEJU VU LOOKS TO HAPPEN AS WELL
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT AGAIN BISECTING THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
REGION AND COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH FAVORING AT LEAST SOME MIX WITH
SNOW...HOWEVER STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL FAVOR ALL LIQUID
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. POPS WERE INCREASED FOR THIS
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY AS MODEL SOLUTIONS REALLY SEEM TO HAVE FALLEN IN
LINE FOR FAVORING THAT TIME FRAME FOR WET WEATHER. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW A FRONT CROSSING THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS QUICKLY DIVERGE BY FRIDAY. HAVE THROWN OUT
THE FAST GFS OUTLIER AND STUCK CLOSER TO ECMWF FORECAST WHICH HAS
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT INDICATING THE FRONT WILL LIKELY HANG UP FOR
ANOTHER DAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THURSDAYS VALUES RISING TO MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST HAS IMPROVED ALL TERMINALS TO
VFR...BUT SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL HOLD IN THE EAST THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...SO WINDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED...BUT THEY WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING THE FLOW TO LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY.
THIS IS AHEAD OF A RELATIVELY DRY SYSTEM THAT WILL ENTER SUNDAY
NIGHT...JUST OUTSIDE OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
SUNDAY NIGHT FRONTAL SYSTEM. ANOTHER ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281841
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
241 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING WEAK ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS DISSIPATING AS THE FOCUS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS
EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN...IS BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO OUR WEST. PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BEGIN TO RELAX AS WE TRANSITION TO HIGH PRESSURE BUT BEFORE
IT DOES...BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR AND KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY PLANTED OVER THE AREA AND
SURFACE FLOW DIMINISHES TO CALM. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WEAK
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE TROUBLE DE-COUPLING
THE LOWER LEVELS TONIGHT. THIS MEANS THAT DESPITE WARM AIR
ADVECTION TAKING PLACE ABOVE 925MB...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
REMAIN SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGE. ANY REMAINING SNOW
COVER THAT SURVIVES MELTING AND SUBLIMATION TODAY COULD LOCALLY
DRIVE SOME TEMPERATURES DOWN EVEN FURTHER.

AXIS OF THE SURFACE HIGH SIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY...ALLOWING
LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. SUNSHINE AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR BACK TO THE AREA AS A
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. COPIOUS DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION AT BAY THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY...BUT RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE QUICKLY HEADING INTO THE SHORT-TERM.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF AN INCOMING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INCREASES RAPIDLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY. WHILE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS OUT RATHER DRY...FAIRLY POTENT WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION LOOKS TO QUICKLY OVERCOME THIS DRY AIR WITH WIDESPREAD
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. MODEL SPREAD ON PRECIPITATION COVERAGE BY LATE
SUNDAY EVENING IS NOT VERY LARGE...NOR IS THE DIVERGENCE OF QPF
SOLUTIONS. ALL MODELS INDICATE A RATHER HIGH POP/LOW QPF TYPE OF
EVENT FOR SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE REAL TOUGH PART OF THE
FORECAST IS MORE LIKELY TO BE PRECIPITATION TYPE.

WHILE THERMAL PROFILES SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT DO NOT VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MODEL TO MODEL...SMALL BOUNDARY LAYER
DIFFERENCES AS WELL AS THE HANDLING OF QUICKLY ERODING COLD AIR
WITH STRONG ADVECTION AND A LACK OF AN INVERSION TO INHIBIT MIXING
ALL WILL WORK TOWARD MAKING PRECIPITATION ALL RAIN. HOWEVER...VERY
WIDE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AS WELL AS FAIRLY COLD INITIAL 850 MB
AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL WORK TOWARD MORE FROZEN
PRECIPITATION AT ONSET. IT DOES SEEM THAT AT LEAST INITIALLY
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO PARTIALLY BISECT THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION...HOWEVER DEEPER MOISTURE QUICKLY PEELS
OFF AS AS SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS LEAVES A BIT
LEANER MOIST LAYER BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION WITH LIFT AND
CONTINUED ENHANCED BAROCLINITY. THAT SAID...POPS WERE TOUGH TO
RULE OUT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
ZONES AND P-TYPES DO LOOK TO TREND TOWARD LIQUID FOR A TIME.

WHILE MOST OF THE AREA WILL TEMPORARILY DRY OUT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE SURFACE LOW ON MONDAY...THIS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE TEMPORARY.
ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NEXT LOW TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL SLIDE DOWN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. DEJU VU LOOKS TO HAPPEN AS WELL
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT AGAIN BISECTING THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
REGION AND COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH FAVORING AT LEAST SOME MIX WITH
SNOW...HOWEVER STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL FAVOR ALL LIQUID
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. POPS WERE INCREASED FOR THIS
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY AS MODEL SOLUTIONS REALLY SEEM TO HAVE FALLEN IN
LINE FOR FAVORING THAT TIME FRAME FOR WET WEATHER. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW A FRONT CROSSING THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS QUICKLY DIVERGE BY FRIDAY. HAVE THROWN OUT
THE FAST GFS OUTLIER AND STUCK CLOSER TO ECMWF FORECAST WHICH HAS
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT INDICATING THE FRONT WILL LIKELY HANG UP FOR
ANOTHER DAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THURSDAYS VALUES RISING TO MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST HAS IMPROVED ALL TERMINALS TO
VFR...BUT SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL HOLD IN THE EAST THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...SO WINDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED...BUT THEY WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING THE FLOW TO LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY.
THIS IS AHEAD OF A RELATIVELY DRY SYSTEM THAT WILL ENTER SUNDAY
NIGHT...JUST OUTSIDE OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
SUNDAY NIGHT FRONTAL SYSTEM. ANOTHER ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281436
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1036 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING WEAK ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS DISSIPATING AS THE FOCUS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS
EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN...IS BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO OUR WEST. PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BEGIN TO RELAX AS WE TRANSITION TO HIGH PRESSURE BUT BEFORE
IT DOES...BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR AND KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE. WITH THE INCREASINGLY POTENT LATE
MARCH SUN MAKING AN APPEARANCE TODAY...FOCUS ON TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WAS CENTERED ON EXPANSE OF CLOUD CLOVER NORTH AND EAST AND
THE GENERAL LACK OF CLOUDS OVER THE WEST.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY PLANTED OVER THE AREA AND
SURFACE FLOW DIMINISHES TO CALM. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WEAK
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE TROUBLE DE-COUPLING
THE LOWER LEVELS TONIGHT. THIS MEANS THAT DESPITE WARM AIR
ADVECTION TAKING PLACE ABOVE 925MB...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
REMAIN SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGE. ANY REMAINING SNOW
COVER THAT SURVIVES MELTING AND SUBLIMATION TODAY COULD LOCALLY
DRIVE SOME TEMPERATURES DOWN EVEN FURTHER.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
INCREASING ROUGHLY 30 DEGREES OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL EARLY ON...INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY AS MOISTURE
WILL NOT BEGIN TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING...WITH
RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...STILL LOOKING AS THOUGH IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
MENTION OF SNOW TO THE NORTH OF PIT AND ALONG THE RIDGES. STILL
LOOKS LIKE A HIGH POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO AS THE DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED
TO MOVE RELATIVELY QUICK ACROSS THE AREA...WITH PRECIP LARGELY
ENDING BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
QUICK COMPACT SYSTEM PLOWS THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. INCREASED
POPS A BIT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE CONTINUITY
FROM MODELS BEFORE INCREASING TO LIKELY POPS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF BOTH
SHOW A FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS QUICKLY
DIVERGE BY FRIDAY. HAVE THROWN OUT THE FAST GFS OUTLIER AND STUCK
CLOSER TO ECMWF FORECAST WHICH HAS ENSEMBLE SUPPORT INDICATING THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY HANG UP FOR ANOTHER DAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THURSDAYS VALUES RISING TO AS
HIGH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN...THUS SPOTTY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EVIDENT...PRIMARILY NORTH AND EAST. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
IN FROM THE WEST...WITH EVERY LOCATION EXPECTED TO HAVE VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HOLD IN THE EAST AS
WELL...SO WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH VALUES DECREASING AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. TAX

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
SUNDAY NIGHT FRONTAL SYSTEM. ANOTHER ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281436
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1036 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING WEAK ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS DISSIPATING AS THE FOCUS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS
EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN...IS BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO OUR WEST. PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BEGIN TO RELAX AS WE TRANSITION TO HIGH PRESSURE BUT BEFORE
IT DOES...BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR AND KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE. WITH THE INCREASINGLY POTENT LATE
MARCH SUN MAKING AN APPEARANCE TODAY...FOCUS ON TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WAS CENTERED ON EXPANSE OF CLOUD CLOVER NORTH AND EAST AND
THE GENERAL LACK OF CLOUDS OVER THE WEST.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY PLANTED OVER THE AREA AND
SURFACE FLOW DIMINISHES TO CALM. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WEAK
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE TROUBLE DE-COUPLING
THE LOWER LEVELS TONIGHT. THIS MEANS THAT DESPITE WARM AIR
ADVECTION TAKING PLACE ABOVE 925MB...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
REMAIN SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGE. ANY REMAINING SNOW
COVER THAT SURVIVES MELTING AND SUBLIMATION TODAY COULD LOCALLY
DRIVE SOME TEMPERATURES DOWN EVEN FURTHER.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
INCREASING ROUGHLY 30 DEGREES OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL EARLY ON...INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY AS MOISTURE
WILL NOT BEGIN TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING...WITH
RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...STILL LOOKING AS THOUGH IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
MENTION OF SNOW TO THE NORTH OF PIT AND ALONG THE RIDGES. STILL
LOOKS LIKE A HIGH POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO AS THE DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED
TO MOVE RELATIVELY QUICK ACROSS THE AREA...WITH PRECIP LARGELY
ENDING BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
QUICK COMPACT SYSTEM PLOWS THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. INCREASED
POPS A BIT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE CONTINUITY
FROM MODELS BEFORE INCREASING TO LIKELY POPS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF BOTH
SHOW A FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS QUICKLY
DIVERGE BY FRIDAY. HAVE THROWN OUT THE FAST GFS OUTLIER AND STUCK
CLOSER TO ECMWF FORECAST WHICH HAS ENSEMBLE SUPPORT INDICATING THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY HANG UP FOR ANOTHER DAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THURSDAYS VALUES RISING TO AS
HIGH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN...THUS SPOTTY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EVIDENT...PRIMARILY NORTH AND EAST. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
IN FROM THE WEST...WITH EVERY LOCATION EXPECTED TO HAVE VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HOLD IN THE EAST AS
WELL...SO WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH VALUES DECREASING AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. TAX

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
SUNDAY NIGHT FRONTAL SYSTEM. ANOTHER ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281436
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1036 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING WEAK ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS DISSIPATING AS THE FOCUS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS
EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN...IS BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO OUR WEST. PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BEGIN TO RELAX AS WE TRANSITION TO HIGH PRESSURE BUT BEFORE
IT DOES...BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR AND KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE. WITH THE INCREASINGLY POTENT LATE
MARCH SUN MAKING AN APPEARANCE TODAY...FOCUS ON TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WAS CENTERED ON EXPANSE OF CLOUD CLOVER NORTH AND EAST AND
THE GENERAL LACK OF CLOUDS OVER THE WEST.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY PLANTED OVER THE AREA AND
SURFACE FLOW DIMINISHES TO CALM. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WEAK
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE TROUBLE DE-COUPLING
THE LOWER LEVELS TONIGHT. THIS MEANS THAT DESPITE WARM AIR
ADVECTION TAKING PLACE ABOVE 925MB...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
REMAIN SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGE. ANY REMAINING SNOW
COVER THAT SURVIVES MELTING AND SUBLIMATION TODAY COULD LOCALLY
DRIVE SOME TEMPERATURES DOWN EVEN FURTHER.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
INCREASING ROUGHLY 30 DEGREES OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL EARLY ON...INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY AS MOISTURE
WILL NOT BEGIN TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING...WITH
RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...STILL LOOKING AS THOUGH IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
MENTION OF SNOW TO THE NORTH OF PIT AND ALONG THE RIDGES. STILL
LOOKS LIKE A HIGH POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO AS THE DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED
TO MOVE RELATIVELY QUICK ACROSS THE AREA...WITH PRECIP LARGELY
ENDING BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
QUICK COMPACT SYSTEM PLOWS THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. INCREASED
POPS A BIT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE CONTINUITY
FROM MODELS BEFORE INCREASING TO LIKELY POPS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF BOTH
SHOW A FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS QUICKLY
DIVERGE BY FRIDAY. HAVE THROWN OUT THE FAST GFS OUTLIER AND STUCK
CLOSER TO ECMWF FORECAST WHICH HAS ENSEMBLE SUPPORT INDICATING THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY HANG UP FOR ANOTHER DAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THURSDAYS VALUES RISING TO AS
HIGH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN...THUS SPOTTY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EVIDENT...PRIMARILY NORTH AND EAST. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
IN FROM THE WEST...WITH EVERY LOCATION EXPECTED TO HAVE VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HOLD IN THE EAST AS
WELL...SO WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH VALUES DECREASING AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. TAX

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
SUNDAY NIGHT FRONTAL SYSTEM. ANOTHER ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281436
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1036 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING WEAK ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS DISSIPATING AS THE FOCUS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS
EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN...IS BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO OUR WEST. PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BEGIN TO RELAX AS WE TRANSITION TO HIGH PRESSURE BUT BEFORE
IT DOES...BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR AND KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE. WITH THE INCREASINGLY POTENT LATE
MARCH SUN MAKING AN APPEARANCE TODAY...FOCUS ON TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WAS CENTERED ON EXPANSE OF CLOUD CLOVER NORTH AND EAST AND
THE GENERAL LACK OF CLOUDS OVER THE WEST.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY PLANTED OVER THE AREA AND
SURFACE FLOW DIMINISHES TO CALM. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WEAK
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE TROUBLE DE-COUPLING
THE LOWER LEVELS TONIGHT. THIS MEANS THAT DESPITE WARM AIR
ADVECTION TAKING PLACE ABOVE 925MB...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
REMAIN SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGE. ANY REMAINING SNOW
COVER THAT SURVIVES MELTING AND SUBLIMATION TODAY COULD LOCALLY
DRIVE SOME TEMPERATURES DOWN EVEN FURTHER.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
INCREASING ROUGHLY 30 DEGREES OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL EARLY ON...INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY AS MOISTURE
WILL NOT BEGIN TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING...WITH
RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...STILL LOOKING AS THOUGH IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
MENTION OF SNOW TO THE NORTH OF PIT AND ALONG THE RIDGES. STILL
LOOKS LIKE A HIGH POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO AS THE DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED
TO MOVE RELATIVELY QUICK ACROSS THE AREA...WITH PRECIP LARGELY
ENDING BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
QUICK COMPACT SYSTEM PLOWS THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. INCREASED
POPS A BIT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE CONTINUITY
FROM MODELS BEFORE INCREASING TO LIKELY POPS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF BOTH
SHOW A FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS QUICKLY
DIVERGE BY FRIDAY. HAVE THROWN OUT THE FAST GFS OUTLIER AND STUCK
CLOSER TO ECMWF FORECAST WHICH HAS ENSEMBLE SUPPORT INDICATING THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY HANG UP FOR ANOTHER DAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THURSDAYS VALUES RISING TO AS
HIGH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN...THUS SPOTTY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EVIDENT...PRIMARILY NORTH AND EAST. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
IN FROM THE WEST...WITH EVERY LOCATION EXPECTED TO HAVE VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HOLD IN THE EAST AS
WELL...SO WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH VALUES DECREASING AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. TAX

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
SUNDAY NIGHT FRONTAL SYSTEM. ANOTHER ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281135
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
735 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL RECOVER SLIGHTLY
BUT NOT MUCH AS THE AXIS OF A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY
TRANSITIONS OVER THE AREA. CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AND CLOUD COVERAGE LARGELY IN PLACE UNTIL MID AFTERNOON
WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPERATURES AROUND 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
AVERAGE. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE WE WILL SEE RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS
BROKEN AT SOME LOCATIONS. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL SCATTER OUT BY EARLY
EVENING AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN AND LOWER LEVELS
DRY OUT...LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. LACK OF CLOUD
COVERAGE AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT AND COLD NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS...CLOSE
BUT NOT QUITE HITTING RECORD VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
INCREASING ROUGHLY 30 DEGREES OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL EARLY ON...INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY AS MOISTURE
WILL NOT BEGIN TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING...WITH
RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...STILL LOOKING AS THOUGH IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
MENTION OF SNOW TO THE NORTH OF PIT AND ALONG THE RIDGES. STILL
LOOKS LIKE A HIGH POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO AS THE DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED
TO MOVE RELATIVELY QUICK ACROSS THE AREA...WITH PRECIP LARGELY
ENDING BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
QUICK COMPACT SYSTEM PLOWS THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. INCREASED
POPS A BIT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE CONTINUITY
FROM MODELS BEFORE INCREASING TO LIKELY POPS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF BOTH
SHOW A FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS QUICKLY
DIVERGE BY FRIDAY. HAVE THROWN OUT THE FAST GFS OUTLIER AND STUCK
CLOSER TO ECMWF FORECAST WHICH HAS ENSEMBLE SUPPORT INDICATING THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY HANG UP FOR ANOTHER DAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THURSDAYS VALUES RISING TO AS
HIGH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN THIS MORNING...THUS SPOTTY MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EVIDENT...PRIMARILY NORTH AND EAST. DRIER AIR WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST...WITH EVERY LOCATION EXPECTED TO
HAVE VFR THIS AFTERNOON. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HOLD IN THE
EAST AS WELL...SO WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH VALUES DECREASING AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
SUNDAY NIGHT FRONTAL SYSTEM. ANOTHER ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281135
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
735 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL RECOVER SLIGHTLY
BUT NOT MUCH AS THE AXIS OF A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY
TRANSITIONS OVER THE AREA. CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AND CLOUD COVERAGE LARGELY IN PLACE UNTIL MID AFTERNOON
WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPERATURES AROUND 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
AVERAGE. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE WE WILL SEE RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS
BROKEN AT SOME LOCATIONS. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL SCATTER OUT BY EARLY
EVENING AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN AND LOWER LEVELS
DRY OUT...LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. LACK OF CLOUD
COVERAGE AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT AND COLD NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS...CLOSE
BUT NOT QUITE HITTING RECORD VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
INCREASING ROUGHLY 30 DEGREES OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL EARLY ON...INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY AS MOISTURE
WILL NOT BEGIN TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING...WITH
RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...STILL LOOKING AS THOUGH IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
MENTION OF SNOW TO THE NORTH OF PIT AND ALONG THE RIDGES. STILL
LOOKS LIKE A HIGH POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO AS THE DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED
TO MOVE RELATIVELY QUICK ACROSS THE AREA...WITH PRECIP LARGELY
ENDING BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
QUICK COMPACT SYSTEM PLOWS THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. INCREASED
POPS A BIT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE CONTINUITY
FROM MODELS BEFORE INCREASING TO LIKELY POPS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF BOTH
SHOW A FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS QUICKLY
DIVERGE BY FRIDAY. HAVE THROWN OUT THE FAST GFS OUTLIER AND STUCK
CLOSER TO ECMWF FORECAST WHICH HAS ENSEMBLE SUPPORT INDICATING THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY HANG UP FOR ANOTHER DAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THURSDAYS VALUES RISING TO AS
HIGH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN THIS MORNING...THUS SPOTTY MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EVIDENT...PRIMARILY NORTH AND EAST. DRIER AIR WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST...WITH EVERY LOCATION EXPECTED TO
HAVE VFR THIS AFTERNOON. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HOLD IN THE
EAST AS WELL...SO WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH VALUES DECREASING AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
SUNDAY NIGHT FRONTAL SYSTEM. ANOTHER ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281135
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
735 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL RECOVER SLIGHTLY
BUT NOT MUCH AS THE AXIS OF A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY
TRANSITIONS OVER THE AREA. CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AND CLOUD COVERAGE LARGELY IN PLACE UNTIL MID AFTERNOON
WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPERATURES AROUND 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
AVERAGE. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE WE WILL SEE RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS
BROKEN AT SOME LOCATIONS. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL SCATTER OUT BY EARLY
EVENING AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN AND LOWER LEVELS
DRY OUT...LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. LACK OF CLOUD
COVERAGE AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT AND COLD NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS...CLOSE
BUT NOT QUITE HITTING RECORD VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
INCREASING ROUGHLY 30 DEGREES OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL EARLY ON...INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY AS MOISTURE
WILL NOT BEGIN TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING...WITH
RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...STILL LOOKING AS THOUGH IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
MENTION OF SNOW TO THE NORTH OF PIT AND ALONG THE RIDGES. STILL
LOOKS LIKE A HIGH POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO AS THE DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED
TO MOVE RELATIVELY QUICK ACROSS THE AREA...WITH PRECIP LARGELY
ENDING BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
QUICK COMPACT SYSTEM PLOWS THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. INCREASED
POPS A BIT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE CONTINUITY
FROM MODELS BEFORE INCREASING TO LIKELY POPS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF BOTH
SHOW A FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS QUICKLY
DIVERGE BY FRIDAY. HAVE THROWN OUT THE FAST GFS OUTLIER AND STUCK
CLOSER TO ECMWF FORECAST WHICH HAS ENSEMBLE SUPPORT INDICATING THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY HANG UP FOR ANOTHER DAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THURSDAYS VALUES RISING TO AS
HIGH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN THIS MORNING...THUS SPOTTY MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EVIDENT...PRIMARILY NORTH AND EAST. DRIER AIR WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST...WITH EVERY LOCATION EXPECTED TO
HAVE VFR THIS AFTERNOON. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HOLD IN THE
EAST AS WELL...SO WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH VALUES DECREASING AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
SUNDAY NIGHT FRONTAL SYSTEM. ANOTHER ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281135
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
735 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL RECOVER SLIGHTLY
BUT NOT MUCH AS THE AXIS OF A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY
TRANSITIONS OVER THE AREA. CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AND CLOUD COVERAGE LARGELY IN PLACE UNTIL MID AFTERNOON
WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPERATURES AROUND 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
AVERAGE. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE WE WILL SEE RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS
BROKEN AT SOME LOCATIONS. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL SCATTER OUT BY EARLY
EVENING AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN AND LOWER LEVELS
DRY OUT...LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. LACK OF CLOUD
COVERAGE AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT AND COLD NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS...CLOSE
BUT NOT QUITE HITTING RECORD VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
INCREASING ROUGHLY 30 DEGREES OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL EARLY ON...INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY AS MOISTURE
WILL NOT BEGIN TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING...WITH
RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...STILL LOOKING AS THOUGH IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
MENTION OF SNOW TO THE NORTH OF PIT AND ALONG THE RIDGES. STILL
LOOKS LIKE A HIGH POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO AS THE DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED
TO MOVE RELATIVELY QUICK ACROSS THE AREA...WITH PRECIP LARGELY
ENDING BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
QUICK COMPACT SYSTEM PLOWS THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. INCREASED
POPS A BIT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE CONTINUITY
FROM MODELS BEFORE INCREASING TO LIKELY POPS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF BOTH
SHOW A FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS QUICKLY
DIVERGE BY FRIDAY. HAVE THROWN OUT THE FAST GFS OUTLIER AND STUCK
CLOSER TO ECMWF FORECAST WHICH HAS ENSEMBLE SUPPORT INDICATING THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY HANG UP FOR ANOTHER DAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THURSDAYS VALUES RISING TO AS
HIGH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN THIS MORNING...THUS SPOTTY MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EVIDENT...PRIMARILY NORTH AND EAST. DRIER AIR WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST...WITH EVERY LOCATION EXPECTED TO
HAVE VFR THIS AFTERNOON. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HOLD IN THE
EAST AS WELL...SO WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH VALUES DECREASING AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
SUNDAY NIGHT FRONTAL SYSTEM. ANOTHER ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280808
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
408 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY/...
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL RECOVER SLIGHTLY
BUT NOT MUCH AS THE AXIS OF A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY
TRANSITIONS OVER THE AREA. CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AND CLOUD COVERAGE LARGELY IN PLACE UNTIL MID AFTERNOON
WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPERATURES AROUND 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
AVERAGE. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE WE WILL SEE RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS
BROKEN AT SOME LOCATIONS. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL SCATTER OUT BY EARLY
EVENING AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN AND LOWER LEVELS
DRY OUT...LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. LACK OF CLOUD
COVERAGE AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT AND COLD NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS...CLOSE
BUT NOT QUITE HITTING RECORD VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
INCREASING ROUGHLY 30 DEGREES OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL EARLY ON...INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY AS MOISTURE
WILL NOT BEGIN TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING...WITH
RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...STILL LOOKING AS THOUGH IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
MENTION OF SNOW TO THE NORTH OF PIT AND ALONG THE RIDGES. STILL
LOOKS LIKE A HIGH POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO AS THE DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED
TO MOVE RELATIVELY QUICK ACROSS THE AREA...WITH PRECIP LARGELY
ENDING BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
QUICK COMPACT SYSTEM PLOWS THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. INCREASED
POPS A BIT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE CONTINUITY
FROM MODELS BEFORE INCREASING TO LIKELY POPS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF BOTH
SHOW A FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS QUICKLY
DIVERGE BY FRIDAY. HAVE THROWN OUT THE FAST GFS OUTLIER AND STUCK
CLOSER TO ECMWF FORECAST WHICH HAS ENSEMBLE SUPPORT INDICATING THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY HANG UP FOR ANOTHER DAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THURSDAYS VALUES RISING TO AS
HIGH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY WIDESPREAD SNOW HAS COME TO AN END...ALTHOUGH A PASSING MVFR
SNOW SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SO FAR HAS BEEN MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN
OBSERVATIONS...WITH VFR CIGS OBSERVED INSTEAD OF MVFR CIGS IN
MODELS. HOWEVER...MVFR CIGS COULD MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
SUNRISE. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH VALUES DECREASING AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
SUNDAY NIGHT FRONTAL SYSTEM. ANOTHER ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280808
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
408 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY/...
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL RECOVER SLIGHTLY
BUT NOT MUCH AS THE AXIS OF A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY
TRANSITIONS OVER THE AREA. CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AND CLOUD COVERAGE LARGELY IN PLACE UNTIL MID AFTERNOON
WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPERATURES AROUND 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
AVERAGE. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE WE WILL SEE RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS
BROKEN AT SOME LOCATIONS. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL SCATTER OUT BY EARLY
EVENING AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN AND LOWER LEVELS
DRY OUT...LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. LACK OF CLOUD
COVERAGE AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT AND COLD NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS...CLOSE
BUT NOT QUITE HITTING RECORD VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
INCREASING ROUGHLY 30 DEGREES OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL EARLY ON...INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY AS MOISTURE
WILL NOT BEGIN TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING...WITH
RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...STILL LOOKING AS THOUGH IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
MENTION OF SNOW TO THE NORTH OF PIT AND ALONG THE RIDGES. STILL
LOOKS LIKE A HIGH POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO AS THE DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED
TO MOVE RELATIVELY QUICK ACROSS THE AREA...WITH PRECIP LARGELY
ENDING BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
QUICK COMPACT SYSTEM PLOWS THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. INCREASED
POPS A BIT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE CONTINUITY
FROM MODELS BEFORE INCREASING TO LIKELY POPS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF BOTH
SHOW A FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS QUICKLY
DIVERGE BY FRIDAY. HAVE THROWN OUT THE FAST GFS OUTLIER AND STUCK
CLOSER TO ECMWF FORECAST WHICH HAS ENSEMBLE SUPPORT INDICATING THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY HANG UP FOR ANOTHER DAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THURSDAYS VALUES RISING TO AS
HIGH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY WIDESPREAD SNOW HAS COME TO AN END...ALTHOUGH A PASSING MVFR
SNOW SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SO FAR HAS BEEN MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN
OBSERVATIONS...WITH VFR CIGS OBSERVED INSTEAD OF MVFR CIGS IN
MODELS. HOWEVER...MVFR CIGS COULD MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
SUNRISE. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH VALUES DECREASING AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
SUNDAY NIGHT FRONTAL SYSTEM. ANOTHER ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280808
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
408 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY/...
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL RECOVER SLIGHTLY
BUT NOT MUCH AS THE AXIS OF A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY
TRANSITIONS OVER THE AREA. CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AND CLOUD COVERAGE LARGELY IN PLACE UNTIL MID AFTERNOON
WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPERATURES AROUND 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
AVERAGE. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE WE WILL SEE RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS
BROKEN AT SOME LOCATIONS. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL SCATTER OUT BY EARLY
EVENING AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN AND LOWER LEVELS
DRY OUT...LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. LACK OF CLOUD
COVERAGE AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT AND COLD NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS...CLOSE
BUT NOT QUITE HITTING RECORD VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
INCREASING ROUGHLY 30 DEGREES OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL EARLY ON...INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY AS MOISTURE
WILL NOT BEGIN TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING...WITH
RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...STILL LOOKING AS THOUGH IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
MENTION OF SNOW TO THE NORTH OF PIT AND ALONG THE RIDGES. STILL
LOOKS LIKE A HIGH POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO AS THE DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED
TO MOVE RELATIVELY QUICK ACROSS THE AREA...WITH PRECIP LARGELY
ENDING BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
QUICK COMPACT SYSTEM PLOWS THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. INCREASED
POPS A BIT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE CONTINUITY
FROM MODELS BEFORE INCREASING TO LIKELY POPS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF BOTH
SHOW A FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS QUICKLY
DIVERGE BY FRIDAY. HAVE THROWN OUT THE FAST GFS OUTLIER AND STUCK
CLOSER TO ECMWF FORECAST WHICH HAS ENSEMBLE SUPPORT INDICATING THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY HANG UP FOR ANOTHER DAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THURSDAYS VALUES RISING TO AS
HIGH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY WIDESPREAD SNOW HAS COME TO AN END...ALTHOUGH A PASSING MVFR
SNOW SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SO FAR HAS BEEN MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN
OBSERVATIONS...WITH VFR CIGS OBSERVED INSTEAD OF MVFR CIGS IN
MODELS. HOWEVER...MVFR CIGS COULD MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
SUNRISE. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH VALUES DECREASING AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
SUNDAY NIGHT FRONTAL SYSTEM. ANOTHER ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280808
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
408 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY/...
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL RECOVER SLIGHTLY
BUT NOT MUCH AS THE AXIS OF A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY
TRANSITIONS OVER THE AREA. CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AND CLOUD COVERAGE LARGELY IN PLACE UNTIL MID AFTERNOON
WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPERATURES AROUND 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
AVERAGE. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE WE WILL SEE RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS
BROKEN AT SOME LOCATIONS. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL SCATTER OUT BY EARLY
EVENING AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN AND LOWER LEVELS
DRY OUT...LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. LACK OF CLOUD
COVERAGE AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT AND COLD NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS...CLOSE
BUT NOT QUITE HITTING RECORD VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
INCREASING ROUGHLY 30 DEGREES OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL EARLY ON...INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY AS MOISTURE
WILL NOT BEGIN TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING...WITH
RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...STILL LOOKING AS THOUGH IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
MENTION OF SNOW TO THE NORTH OF PIT AND ALONG THE RIDGES. STILL
LOOKS LIKE A HIGH POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO AS THE DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED
TO MOVE RELATIVELY QUICK ACROSS THE AREA...WITH PRECIP LARGELY
ENDING BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
QUICK COMPACT SYSTEM PLOWS THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. INCREASED
POPS A BIT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE CONTINUITY
FROM MODELS BEFORE INCREASING TO LIKELY POPS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF BOTH
SHOW A FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS QUICKLY
DIVERGE BY FRIDAY. HAVE THROWN OUT THE FAST GFS OUTLIER AND STUCK
CLOSER TO ECMWF FORECAST WHICH HAS ENSEMBLE SUPPORT INDICATING THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY HANG UP FOR ANOTHER DAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THURSDAYS VALUES RISING TO AS
HIGH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY WIDESPREAD SNOW HAS COME TO AN END...ALTHOUGH A PASSING MVFR
SNOW SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SO FAR HAS BEEN MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN
OBSERVATIONS...WITH VFR CIGS OBSERVED INSTEAD OF MVFR CIGS IN
MODELS. HOWEVER...MVFR CIGS COULD MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
SUNRISE. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH VALUES DECREASING AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
SUNDAY NIGHT FRONTAL SYSTEM. ANOTHER ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280455
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1255 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL END AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE DECREASING HOURLY TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY TO BETTER ALIGN WITH LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. NO
MAJOR CHANGES WERE NECESSARY AS LATEST RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..

COLD ADVECTION AND SHORTWAVE SUPPORT ARE PROGGED TO KEEP
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY
EARLY TONIGHT...THOUGH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
WITH WEAKENING LAPSE RATES LATER TONIGHT...A DECREASE IN PRECIP IS
EXPECTED. LOWS AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE ARE
EXPECTED USING MODIFIED LAMP GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING...QUICKLY
FOLLOWED BY THE 850 MB THERMAL TROUGH. ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD END IN THE MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL BREAK THROUGH THE
DAY...AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY SUNSET. MUCH BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST...ACTUALLY LOWERED THE FORECAST A DEGREE
OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS MID LEVEL RIDGE
APPROACHES AND PASSES ALONG WITH A TRANISTORY SURFACE HIGH. SAID
HIGH PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT. A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SETUP IS EXPECTED....WITH MOST LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
TEENS. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RECORD LOWS AT THIS POINT...
ALTHOUGH READINGS WILL NOT BE TOO FAR OFF. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO ARRIVE SUNDAY AS THEY SPILL OVER THE RIDGE AXIS. LOW LEVEL FLOW
SWITCHES TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST...BRINGING IN A WARMER AIRMASS.
HIGH TEMPS STILL BELOW NORMAL BUT SOME 10-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN
SATURDAY.

THERE IS A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE GFS
REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE/FRONTAL COMBINATION SLATED
TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKS WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
MENTION OF SNOW TO THE NORTH OF PIT AND ALONG THE RIDGES. STILL
NOT IMPRESSED WITH QPF POTENTIAL GIVEN SYSTEM SPEED AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
WITH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL IN THE EXTENDED WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL.  SHORTWAVE PASSAGES WITH
PRECIP CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING...AND MVFR...TO LOW VFR
STRATOCU THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.  INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
ADVECTION OVER A STILL ICE COVERED LAKE ERIE SHOULD ALLEVIATE
CONDITIONS AS SATURDAY PROGRESSES.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
SUNDAY NIGHT FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280455
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1255 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL END AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE DECREASING HOURLY TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY TO BETTER ALIGN WITH LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. NO
MAJOR CHANGES WERE NECESSARY AS LATEST RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..

COLD ADVECTION AND SHORTWAVE SUPPORT ARE PROGGED TO KEEP
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY
EARLY TONIGHT...THOUGH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
WITH WEAKENING LAPSE RATES LATER TONIGHT...A DECREASE IN PRECIP IS
EXPECTED. LOWS AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE ARE
EXPECTED USING MODIFIED LAMP GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING...QUICKLY
FOLLOWED BY THE 850 MB THERMAL TROUGH. ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD END IN THE MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL BREAK THROUGH THE
DAY...AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY SUNSET. MUCH BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST...ACTUALLY LOWERED THE FORECAST A DEGREE
OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS MID LEVEL RIDGE
APPROACHES AND PASSES ALONG WITH A TRANISTORY SURFACE HIGH. SAID
HIGH PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT. A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SETUP IS EXPECTED....WITH MOST LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
TEENS. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RECORD LOWS AT THIS POINT...
ALTHOUGH READINGS WILL NOT BE TOO FAR OFF. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO ARRIVE SUNDAY AS THEY SPILL OVER THE RIDGE AXIS. LOW LEVEL FLOW
SWITCHES TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST...BRINGING IN A WARMER AIRMASS.
HIGH TEMPS STILL BELOW NORMAL BUT SOME 10-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN
SATURDAY.

THERE IS A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE GFS
REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE/FRONTAL COMBINATION SLATED
TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKS WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
MENTION OF SNOW TO THE NORTH OF PIT AND ALONG THE RIDGES. STILL
NOT IMPRESSED WITH QPF POTENTIAL GIVEN SYSTEM SPEED AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
WITH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL IN THE EXTENDED WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL.  SHORTWAVE PASSAGES WITH
PRECIP CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING...AND MVFR...TO LOW VFR
STRATOCU THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.  INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
ADVECTION OVER A STILL ICE COVERED LAKE ERIE SHOULD ALLEVIATE
CONDITIONS AS SATURDAY PROGRESSES.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
SUNDAY NIGHT FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280455
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1255 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL END AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE DECREASING HOURLY TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY TO BETTER ALIGN WITH LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. NO
MAJOR CHANGES WERE NECESSARY AS LATEST RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..

COLD ADVECTION AND SHORTWAVE SUPPORT ARE PROGGED TO KEEP
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY
EARLY TONIGHT...THOUGH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
WITH WEAKENING LAPSE RATES LATER TONIGHT...A DECREASE IN PRECIP IS
EXPECTED. LOWS AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE ARE
EXPECTED USING MODIFIED LAMP GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING...QUICKLY
FOLLOWED BY THE 850 MB THERMAL TROUGH. ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD END IN THE MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL BREAK THROUGH THE
DAY...AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY SUNSET. MUCH BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST...ACTUALLY LOWERED THE FORECAST A DEGREE
OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS MID LEVEL RIDGE
APPROACHES AND PASSES ALONG WITH A TRANISTORY SURFACE HIGH. SAID
HIGH PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT. A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SETUP IS EXPECTED....WITH MOST LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
TEENS. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RECORD LOWS AT THIS POINT...
ALTHOUGH READINGS WILL NOT BE TOO FAR OFF. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO ARRIVE SUNDAY AS THEY SPILL OVER THE RIDGE AXIS. LOW LEVEL FLOW
SWITCHES TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST...BRINGING IN A WARMER AIRMASS.
HIGH TEMPS STILL BELOW NORMAL BUT SOME 10-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN
SATURDAY.

THERE IS A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE GFS
REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE/FRONTAL COMBINATION SLATED
TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKS WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
MENTION OF SNOW TO THE NORTH OF PIT AND ALONG THE RIDGES. STILL
NOT IMPRESSED WITH QPF POTENTIAL GIVEN SYSTEM SPEED AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
WITH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL IN THE EXTENDED WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL.  SHORTWAVE PASSAGES WITH
PRECIP CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING...AND MVFR...TO LOW VFR
STRATOCU THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.  INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
ADVECTION OVER A STILL ICE COVERED LAKE ERIE SHOULD ALLEVIATE
CONDITIONS AS SATURDAY PROGRESSES.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
SUNDAY NIGHT FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280455
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1255 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL END AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE DECREASING HOURLY TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY TO BETTER ALIGN WITH LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. NO
MAJOR CHANGES WERE NECESSARY AS LATEST RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..

COLD ADVECTION AND SHORTWAVE SUPPORT ARE PROGGED TO KEEP
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY
EARLY TONIGHT...THOUGH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
WITH WEAKENING LAPSE RATES LATER TONIGHT...A DECREASE IN PRECIP IS
EXPECTED. LOWS AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE ARE
EXPECTED USING MODIFIED LAMP GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING...QUICKLY
FOLLOWED BY THE 850 MB THERMAL TROUGH. ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD END IN THE MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL BREAK THROUGH THE
DAY...AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY SUNSET. MUCH BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST...ACTUALLY LOWERED THE FORECAST A DEGREE
OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS MID LEVEL RIDGE
APPROACHES AND PASSES ALONG WITH A TRANISTORY SURFACE HIGH. SAID
HIGH PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT. A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SETUP IS EXPECTED....WITH MOST LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
TEENS. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RECORD LOWS AT THIS POINT...
ALTHOUGH READINGS WILL NOT BE TOO FAR OFF. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO ARRIVE SUNDAY AS THEY SPILL OVER THE RIDGE AXIS. LOW LEVEL FLOW
SWITCHES TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST...BRINGING IN A WARMER AIRMASS.
HIGH TEMPS STILL BELOW NORMAL BUT SOME 10-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN
SATURDAY.

THERE IS A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE GFS
REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE/FRONTAL COMBINATION SLATED
TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKS WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
MENTION OF SNOW TO THE NORTH OF PIT AND ALONG THE RIDGES. STILL
NOT IMPRESSED WITH QPF POTENTIAL GIVEN SYSTEM SPEED AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
WITH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL IN THE EXTENDED WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL.  SHORTWAVE PASSAGES WITH
PRECIP CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING...AND MVFR...TO LOW VFR
STRATOCU THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.  INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
ADVECTION OVER A STILL ICE COVERED LAKE ERIE SHOULD ALLEVIATE
CONDITIONS AS SATURDAY PROGRESSES.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
SUNDAY NIGHT FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280047
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
847 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL END AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
COLD ADVECTION AND SHORTWAVE SUPPORT ARE PROGGED TO KEEP SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY EARLY
TONIGHT...THOUGH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WITH
WEAKENING LAPSE RATES LATER TONIGHT...A DECREASE IN PRECIP IS
EXPECTED. LOWS AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE ARE
EXPECTED USING MODIFIED LAMP GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING...QUICKLY
FOLLOWED BY THE 850 MB THERMAL TROUGH. ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD END IN THE MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL BREAK THROUGH THE
DAY...AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY SUNSET. MUCH BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST...ACTUALLY LOWERED THE FORECAST A DEGREE
OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS MID LEVEL RIDGE
APPROACHES AND PASSES ALONG WITH A TRANISTORY SURFACE HIGH. SAID
HIGH PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT. A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SETUP IS EXPECTED....WITH MOST LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
TEENS. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RECORD LOWS AT THIS POINT...
ALTHOUGH READINGS WILL NOT BE TOO FAR OFF. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO ARRIVE SUNDAY AS THEY SPILL OVER THE RIDGE AXIS. LOW LEVEL FLOW
SWITCHES TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST...BRINGING IN A WARMER AIRMASS.
HIGH TEMPS STILL BELOW NORMAL BUT SOME 10-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN
SATURDAY.

THERE IS A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE GFS
REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE/FRONTAL COMBINATION SLATED
TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKS WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
MENTION OF SNOW TO THE NORTH OF PIT AND ALONG THE RIDGES. STILL
NOT IMPRESSED WITH QPF POTENTIAL GIVEN SYSTEM SPEED AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
WITH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL IN THE EXTENDED WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL.  SHORTWAVE PASSAGES WITH
PRECIP CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING...AND MVFR...TO LOW VFR
STRATOCU THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.  INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
ADVECTION OVER A STILL ICE COVERED LAKE ERIE SHOULD ALLEVIATE
CONDITIONS AS SATURDAY PROGRESSES.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
SUNDAY NIGHT FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280047
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
847 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL END AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
COLD ADVECTION AND SHORTWAVE SUPPORT ARE PROGGED TO KEEP SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY EARLY
TONIGHT...THOUGH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WITH
WEAKENING LAPSE RATES LATER TONIGHT...A DECREASE IN PRECIP IS
EXPECTED. LOWS AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE ARE
EXPECTED USING MODIFIED LAMP GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING...QUICKLY
FOLLOWED BY THE 850 MB THERMAL TROUGH. ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD END IN THE MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL BREAK THROUGH THE
DAY...AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY SUNSET. MUCH BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST...ACTUALLY LOWERED THE FORECAST A DEGREE
OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS MID LEVEL RIDGE
APPROACHES AND PASSES ALONG WITH A TRANISTORY SURFACE HIGH. SAID
HIGH PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT. A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SETUP IS EXPECTED....WITH MOST LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
TEENS. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RECORD LOWS AT THIS POINT...
ALTHOUGH READINGS WILL NOT BE TOO FAR OFF. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO ARRIVE SUNDAY AS THEY SPILL OVER THE RIDGE AXIS. LOW LEVEL FLOW
SWITCHES TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST...BRINGING IN A WARMER AIRMASS.
HIGH TEMPS STILL BELOW NORMAL BUT SOME 10-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN
SATURDAY.

THERE IS A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE GFS
REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE/FRONTAL COMBINATION SLATED
TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKS WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
MENTION OF SNOW TO THE NORTH OF PIT AND ALONG THE RIDGES. STILL
NOT IMPRESSED WITH QPF POTENTIAL GIVEN SYSTEM SPEED AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
WITH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL IN THE EXTENDED WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL.  SHORTWAVE PASSAGES WITH
PRECIP CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING...AND MVFR...TO LOW VFR
STRATOCU THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.  INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
ADVECTION OVER A STILL ICE COVERED LAKE ERIE SHOULD ALLEVIATE
CONDITIONS AS SATURDAY PROGRESSES.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
SUNDAY NIGHT FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 272106
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
506 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL END AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
COLD ADVECTION AND SHORTWAVE SUPPORT ARE PROGGED TO KEEP SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...THOUGH SOME
DECREASE IN PRECIP IS EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET. LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. LOWS AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW THE
SEASONAL AVERAGE ARE EXPECTED USING THE TWEAKED LAMP GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
H500 TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH CWA SATURDAY MORNING...QUICKLY
FOLLOWED BY H850 THERMAL TROUGH. EXPECT ANY SHSN TO MOSTLY WRAP UP
BY MIDDAY OR SO AS A RESULT...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
KEEP SQUEEZING OUT A FLURRY OR TWO ALONG THE RIDGES FOR A FEW
HOURS LONGER. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE
MINIMAL...PERHAPS A TENTH OR TWO NORTH OF I-80 AND/OR ON THE
HIGHER HILLTOPS. LOW CLOUDS WILL BREAK THROUGH THE DAY...AND
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY SUNSET. MUCH BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPS
ARE FORECAST...ACTUALLY LOWERED THE FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO IN
THE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS MIDLEVEL RIDGE APPROACHES
AND PASSES ALONG WITH A TRANISTORY SURFACE HIGH. SAID HIGH PASSES
JUST TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT. A MINIMAL PUFF OF WIND MAY
CONTINUE ALONG THE RIDGES...BUT A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP
IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE....WITH MOST LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS.
NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RECORD LOWS AT THIS POINT...ALTHOUGH
READINGS WILL NOT BE TOO FAR OFF. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE
SUNDAY AS THEY SPILL OVER THE RIDGE AXIS. LOW LEVEL FLOW SWITCHES
TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST...BRINGING IN A WARMER AIRMASS. HIGH TEMPS
STILL BELOW NORMAL BUT SOME 10-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY.

THERE IS A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE GFS
REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE/FRONTAL COMBINATION SLATED
TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKS WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
MENTION OF SNOW TO THE NORTH OF PIT AND ALONG THE RIDGES. STILL
NOT IMPRESSED WITH QPF POTENTIAL GIVEN SYSTEM SPEED AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
WITH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL IN THE EXTENDED WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL.  SHORTWAVE PASSAGES WITH
PRECIP CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING...AND MVFR STRATOCU
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.  INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY ADVECTION
OVER A STILL ICE COVERED LAKE ERIE SHOULD ALLEVIATE CONDITIONS AS
SATURDAY PROGRESSES.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
SUNDAY NIGHT FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 272106
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
506 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL END AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
COLD ADVECTION AND SHORTWAVE SUPPORT ARE PROGGED TO KEEP SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...THOUGH SOME
DECREASE IN PRECIP IS EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET. LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. LOWS AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW THE
SEASONAL AVERAGE ARE EXPECTED USING THE TWEAKED LAMP GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
H500 TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH CWA SATURDAY MORNING...QUICKLY
FOLLOWED BY H850 THERMAL TROUGH. EXPECT ANY SHSN TO MOSTLY WRAP UP
BY MIDDAY OR SO AS A RESULT...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
KEEP SQUEEZING OUT A FLURRY OR TWO ALONG THE RIDGES FOR A FEW
HOURS LONGER. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE
MINIMAL...PERHAPS A TENTH OR TWO NORTH OF I-80 AND/OR ON THE
HIGHER HILLTOPS. LOW CLOUDS WILL BREAK THROUGH THE DAY...AND
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY SUNSET. MUCH BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPS
ARE FORECAST...ACTUALLY LOWERED THE FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO IN
THE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS MIDLEVEL RIDGE APPROACHES
AND PASSES ALONG WITH A TRANISTORY SURFACE HIGH. SAID HIGH PASSES
JUST TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT. A MINIMAL PUFF OF WIND MAY
CONTINUE ALONG THE RIDGES...BUT A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP
IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE....WITH MOST LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS.
NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RECORD LOWS AT THIS POINT...ALTHOUGH
READINGS WILL NOT BE TOO FAR OFF. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE
SUNDAY AS THEY SPILL OVER THE RIDGE AXIS. LOW LEVEL FLOW SWITCHES
TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST...BRINGING IN A WARMER AIRMASS. HIGH TEMPS
STILL BELOW NORMAL BUT SOME 10-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY.

THERE IS A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE GFS
REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE/FRONTAL COMBINATION SLATED
TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKS WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
MENTION OF SNOW TO THE NORTH OF PIT AND ALONG THE RIDGES. STILL
NOT IMPRESSED WITH QPF POTENTIAL GIVEN SYSTEM SPEED AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
WITH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL IN THE EXTENDED WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL.  SHORTWAVE PASSAGES WITH
PRECIP CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING...AND MVFR STRATOCU
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.  INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY ADVECTION
OVER A STILL ICE COVERED LAKE ERIE SHOULD ALLEVIATE CONDITIONS AS
SATURDAY PROGRESSES.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
SUNDAY NIGHT FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271750
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
150 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
SMALL AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF IT INTO
EASTERN OHIO AND NW PA. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT
NOT A MAJOR CHANGE. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES. SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE
RIDGES MAY GIVE A QUICK COATING EARLY BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING
AS SUBSIDENCE WORKS INTO REGION WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. NO
CHANGES TO FORECAST TEMPS WHICH WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
H500 TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH CWA SATURDAY MORNING...QUICKLY
FOLLOWED BY H850 THERMAL TROUGH. EXPECT ANY SHSN TO MOSTLY WRAP UP
BY MIDDAY OR SO AS A RESULT...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
KEEP SQUEEZING OUT A FLURRY OR TWO ALONG THE RIDGES FOR A FEW
HOURS LONGER. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE
MINIMAL...PERHAPS A TENTH OR TWO NORTH OF I-80 AND/OR ON THE
HIGHER HILLTOPS. LOW CLOUDS WILL BREAK THROUGH THE DAY...AND
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY SUNSET. MUCH BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPS
ARE FORECAST...ACTUALLY LOWERED THE FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO IN
THE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS MIDLEVEL RIDGE APPROACHES
AND PASSES ALONG WITH A TRANISTORY SURFACE HIGH. SAID HIGH PASSES
JUST TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT. A MINIMAL PUFF OF WIND MAY
CONTINUE ALONG THE RIDGES...BUT A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP
IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE....WITH MOST LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS.
NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RECORD LOWS AT THIS POINT...ALTHOUGH
READINGS WILL NOT BE TOO FAR OFF. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE
SUNDAY AS THEY SPILL OVER THE RIDGE AXIS. LOW LEVEL FLOW SWITCHES
TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST...BRINGING IN A WARMER AIRMASS. HIGH TEMPS
STILL BELOW NORMAL BUT SOME 10-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY.

THERE IS A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE GFS
REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE/FRONTAL COMBINATION SLATED
TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKS WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
MENTION OF SNOW TO THE NORTH OF PIT AND ALONG THE RIDGES. STILL
NOT IMPRESSED WITH QPF POTENTIAL GIVEN SYSTEM SPEED AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
WITH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TEMPS.  CL

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL IN THE EXTENDED WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AND SHORTWAVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY BRINGING CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BRIEF WINDOW OF MVFR SNOW SHOWERS NORTHERN TAF SITES LATE MORNING
WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
MVFR AT WORST. COLD ADVECTION STRATO-CU WILL CONTINUE WITH STRAY
SNOW SHOWERS AT PORTS THIS EVENING. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND
SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK. WINDS
WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KTS.


.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED LATER SATURDAY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
IMPACTS THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271750
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
150 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
SMALL AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF IT INTO
EASTERN OHIO AND NW PA. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT
NOT A MAJOR CHANGE. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES. SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE
RIDGES MAY GIVE A QUICK COATING EARLY BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING
AS SUBSIDENCE WORKS INTO REGION WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. NO
CHANGES TO FORECAST TEMPS WHICH WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
H500 TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH CWA SATURDAY MORNING...QUICKLY
FOLLOWED BY H850 THERMAL TROUGH. EXPECT ANY SHSN TO MOSTLY WRAP UP
BY MIDDAY OR SO AS A RESULT...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
KEEP SQUEEZING OUT A FLURRY OR TWO ALONG THE RIDGES FOR A FEW
HOURS LONGER. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE
MINIMAL...PERHAPS A TENTH OR TWO NORTH OF I-80 AND/OR ON THE
HIGHER HILLTOPS. LOW CLOUDS WILL BREAK THROUGH THE DAY...AND
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY SUNSET. MUCH BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPS
ARE FORECAST...ACTUALLY LOWERED THE FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO IN
THE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS MIDLEVEL RIDGE APPROACHES
AND PASSES ALONG WITH A TRANISTORY SURFACE HIGH. SAID HIGH PASSES
JUST TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT. A MINIMAL PUFF OF WIND MAY
CONTINUE ALONG THE RIDGES...BUT A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP
IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE....WITH MOST LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS.
NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RECORD LOWS AT THIS POINT...ALTHOUGH
READINGS WILL NOT BE TOO FAR OFF. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE
SUNDAY AS THEY SPILL OVER THE RIDGE AXIS. LOW LEVEL FLOW SWITCHES
TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST...BRINGING IN A WARMER AIRMASS. HIGH TEMPS
STILL BELOW NORMAL BUT SOME 10-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY.

THERE IS A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE GFS
REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE/FRONTAL COMBINATION SLATED
TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKS WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
MENTION OF SNOW TO THE NORTH OF PIT AND ALONG THE RIDGES. STILL
NOT IMPRESSED WITH QPF POTENTIAL GIVEN SYSTEM SPEED AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
WITH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TEMPS.  CL

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL IN THE EXTENDED WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AND SHORTWAVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY BRINGING CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BRIEF WINDOW OF MVFR SNOW SHOWERS NORTHERN TAF SITES LATE MORNING
WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
MVFR AT WORST. COLD ADVECTION STRATO-CU WILL CONTINUE WITH STRAY
SNOW SHOWERS AT PORTS THIS EVENING. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND
SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK. WINDS
WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KTS.


.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED LATER SATURDAY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
IMPACTS THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271750
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
150 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
SMALL AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF IT INTO
EASTERN OHIO AND NW PA. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT
NOT A MAJOR CHANGE. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES. SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE
RIDGES MAY GIVE A QUICK COATING EARLY BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING
AS SUBSIDENCE WORKS INTO REGION WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. NO
CHANGES TO FORECAST TEMPS WHICH WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
H500 TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH CWA SATURDAY MORNING...QUICKLY
FOLLOWED BY H850 THERMAL TROUGH. EXPECT ANY SHSN TO MOSTLY WRAP UP
BY MIDDAY OR SO AS A RESULT...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
KEEP SQUEEZING OUT A FLURRY OR TWO ALONG THE RIDGES FOR A FEW
HOURS LONGER. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE
MINIMAL...PERHAPS A TENTH OR TWO NORTH OF I-80 AND/OR ON THE
HIGHER HILLTOPS. LOW CLOUDS WILL BREAK THROUGH THE DAY...AND
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY SUNSET. MUCH BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPS
ARE FORECAST...ACTUALLY LOWERED THE FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO IN
THE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS MIDLEVEL RIDGE APPROACHES
AND PASSES ALONG WITH A TRANISTORY SURFACE HIGH. SAID HIGH PASSES
JUST TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT. A MINIMAL PUFF OF WIND MAY
CONTINUE ALONG THE RIDGES...BUT A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP
IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE....WITH MOST LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS.
NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RECORD LOWS AT THIS POINT...ALTHOUGH
READINGS WILL NOT BE TOO FAR OFF. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE
SUNDAY AS THEY SPILL OVER THE RIDGE AXIS. LOW LEVEL FLOW SWITCHES
TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST...BRINGING IN A WARMER AIRMASS. HIGH TEMPS
STILL BELOW NORMAL BUT SOME 10-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY.

THERE IS A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE GFS
REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE/FRONTAL COMBINATION SLATED
TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKS WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
MENTION OF SNOW TO THE NORTH OF PIT AND ALONG THE RIDGES. STILL
NOT IMPRESSED WITH QPF POTENTIAL GIVEN SYSTEM SPEED AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
WITH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TEMPS.  CL

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL IN THE EXTENDED WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AND SHORTWAVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY BRINGING CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BRIEF WINDOW OF MVFR SNOW SHOWERS NORTHERN TAF SITES LATE MORNING
WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
MVFR AT WORST. COLD ADVECTION STRATO-CU WILL CONTINUE WITH STRAY
SNOW SHOWERS AT PORTS THIS EVENING. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND
SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK. WINDS
WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KTS.


.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED LATER SATURDAY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
IMPACTS THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271417
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1017 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
SMALL AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF IT INTO
EASTERN OHIO AND NW PA. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT
NOT A MAJOR CHANGE. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES. SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE
RIDGES MAY GIVE A QUICK COATING EARLY BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING
AS SUBSIDENCE WORKS INTO REGION WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. NO
CHANGES TO FORECAST TEMPS WHICH WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BY SATURDAY
MORNING...ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH EAST AFTER
SUNRISE. EVEN WITH SKIES CLEARING SATURDAY...COLD NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM RISING MUCH ABOVE TODAYS VALUES. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD...ALLOWING FOR FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND YET ANOTHER
NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE TEENS. RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY BRING SOME RELIEF FROM COLDER TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH
DAYTIME VALUES ON SUNDAY WILL STILL REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. NEXT FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODELS
STILL VARYING IN EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF DEEP MOISTURE PRESENT.
GFS APPEARS TO BE THE FAST OUTLIER...AND HAVE GONE CLOSER TO
NAM/SREF TIMING. RAISED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL DO
NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE TO ADD LIKELY POPS ANYWHERE. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD
FINALLY BRING A PERIOD OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...MEANING THAT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY FALL AS RAIN. FLOW DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF RESULT IN SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE
POPS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CREEP UP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL IN THE EXTENDED WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AND SHORTWAVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY BRINGING CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BRIEF WINDOW OF MVFR SNOW SHOWERS NORTHERN TAF SITES LATE MORNING
WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
MVFR AT WORST. COLD ADVECTION STRATO-CU WILL CONTINUE WITH STRAY
SNOW SHOWERS AT PORTS THIS EVENING. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND
SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK. WINDS
WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KTS.


.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED LATER SATURDAY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
IMPACTS THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271417
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1017 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
SMALL AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF IT INTO
EASTERN OHIO AND NW PA. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT
NOT A MAJOR CHANGE. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES. SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE
RIDGES MAY GIVE A QUICK COATING EARLY BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING
AS SUBSIDENCE WORKS INTO REGION WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. NO
CHANGES TO FORECAST TEMPS WHICH WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BY SATURDAY
MORNING...ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH EAST AFTER
SUNRISE. EVEN WITH SKIES CLEARING SATURDAY...COLD NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM RISING MUCH ABOVE TODAYS VALUES. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD...ALLOWING FOR FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND YET ANOTHER
NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE TEENS. RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY BRING SOME RELIEF FROM COLDER TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH
DAYTIME VALUES ON SUNDAY WILL STILL REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. NEXT FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODELS
STILL VARYING IN EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF DEEP MOISTURE PRESENT.
GFS APPEARS TO BE THE FAST OUTLIER...AND HAVE GONE CLOSER TO
NAM/SREF TIMING. RAISED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL DO
NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE TO ADD LIKELY POPS ANYWHERE. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD
FINALLY BRING A PERIOD OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...MEANING THAT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY FALL AS RAIN. FLOW DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF RESULT IN SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE
POPS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CREEP UP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL IN THE EXTENDED WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AND SHORTWAVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY BRINGING CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BRIEF WINDOW OF MVFR SNOW SHOWERS NORTHERN TAF SITES LATE MORNING
WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
MVFR AT WORST. COLD ADVECTION STRATO-CU WILL CONTINUE WITH STRAY
SNOW SHOWERS AT PORTS THIS EVENING. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND
SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK. WINDS
WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KTS.


.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED LATER SATURDAY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
IMPACTS THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271417
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1017 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
SMALL AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF IT INTO
EASTERN OHIO AND NW PA. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT
NOT A MAJOR CHANGE. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES. SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE
RIDGES MAY GIVE A QUICK COATING EARLY BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING
AS SUBSIDENCE WORKS INTO REGION WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. NO
CHANGES TO FORECAST TEMPS WHICH WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BY SATURDAY
MORNING...ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH EAST AFTER
SUNRISE. EVEN WITH SKIES CLEARING SATURDAY...COLD NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM RISING MUCH ABOVE TODAYS VALUES. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD...ALLOWING FOR FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND YET ANOTHER
NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE TEENS. RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY BRING SOME RELIEF FROM COLDER TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH
DAYTIME VALUES ON SUNDAY WILL STILL REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. NEXT FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODELS
STILL VARYING IN EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF DEEP MOISTURE PRESENT.
GFS APPEARS TO BE THE FAST OUTLIER...AND HAVE GONE CLOSER TO
NAM/SREF TIMING. RAISED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL DO
NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE TO ADD LIKELY POPS ANYWHERE. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD
FINALLY BRING A PERIOD OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...MEANING THAT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY FALL AS RAIN. FLOW DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF RESULT IN SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE
POPS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CREEP UP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL IN THE EXTENDED WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AND SHORTWAVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY BRINGING CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BRIEF WINDOW OF MVFR SNOW SHOWERS NORTHERN TAF SITES LATE MORNING
WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
MVFR AT WORST. COLD ADVECTION STRATO-CU WILL CONTINUE WITH STRAY
SNOW SHOWERS AT PORTS THIS EVENING. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND
SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK. WINDS
WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KTS.


.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED LATER SATURDAY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
IMPACTS THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$












000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271300
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
900 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO SKY COVER FOR THE MID MORNING UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ALTHOUGH A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION...AN
UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH
WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING A REINFORCING ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION. WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TODAY AND
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MORE SIMILAR TO MID JANUARY VALUES INSTEAD OF LATE MARCH
VALUES. NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S DURING THE DAY
AND DROP INTO THE TEENS OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...MANY LOCATIONS WILL
SEE SNOW...ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO
GRASSY SURFACES. STILL...AN INCH OF SNOW WOULD NOT BE UNREASONABLE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PA/WV/MD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BY SATURDAY
MORNING...ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH EAST AFTER
SUNRISE. EVEN WITH SKIES CLEARING SATURDAY...COLD NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM RISING MUCH ABOVE TODAYS VALUES. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD...ALLOWING FOR FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND YET ANOTHER
NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE TEENS. RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY BRING SOME RELIEF FROM COLDER TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH
DAYTIME VALUES ON SUNDAY WILL STILL REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. NEXT FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODELS
STILL VARYING IN EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF DEEP MOISTURE PRESENT.
GFS APPEARS TO BE THE FAST OUTLIER...AND HAVE GONE CLOSER TO
NAM/SREF TIMING. RAISED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL DO
NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE TO ADD LIKELY POPS ANYWHERE. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD
FINALLY BRING A PERIOD OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...MEANING THAT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY FALL AS RAIN. FLOW DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF RESULT IN SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE
POPS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CREEP UP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL IN THE EXTENDED WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AND SHORTWAVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY BRINGING CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING
MORNING AS CIGS RISE WITH INCREASED MIXING. WITH SCT- BKN
STRATOCU IN COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ALONG WITH STRAY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT WITH NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS CONTINUING
AND STRATO-CU PERHAPS BREAKING AT TIMES.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY WITH TROUGHING OVER THE
AREA...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. VFR THEN
EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271300
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
900 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO SKY COVER FOR THE MID MORNING UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ALTHOUGH A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION...AN
UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH
WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING A REINFORCING ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION. WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TODAY AND
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MORE SIMILAR TO MID JANUARY VALUES INSTEAD OF LATE MARCH
VALUES. NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S DURING THE DAY
AND DROP INTO THE TEENS OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...MANY LOCATIONS WILL
SEE SNOW...ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO
GRASSY SURFACES. STILL...AN INCH OF SNOW WOULD NOT BE UNREASONABLE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PA/WV/MD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BY SATURDAY
MORNING...ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH EAST AFTER
SUNRISE. EVEN WITH SKIES CLEARING SATURDAY...COLD NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM RISING MUCH ABOVE TODAYS VALUES. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD...ALLOWING FOR FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND YET ANOTHER
NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE TEENS. RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY BRING SOME RELIEF FROM COLDER TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH
DAYTIME VALUES ON SUNDAY WILL STILL REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. NEXT FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODELS
STILL VARYING IN EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF DEEP MOISTURE PRESENT.
GFS APPEARS TO BE THE FAST OUTLIER...AND HAVE GONE CLOSER TO
NAM/SREF TIMING. RAISED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL DO
NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE TO ADD LIKELY POPS ANYWHERE. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD
FINALLY BRING A PERIOD OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...MEANING THAT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY FALL AS RAIN. FLOW DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF RESULT IN SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE
POPS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CREEP UP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL IN THE EXTENDED WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AND SHORTWAVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY BRINGING CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING
MORNING AS CIGS RISE WITH INCREASED MIXING. WITH SCT- BKN
STRATOCU IN COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ALONG WITH STRAY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT WITH NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS CONTINUING
AND STRATO-CU PERHAPS BREAKING AT TIMES.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY WITH TROUGHING OVER THE
AREA...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. VFR THEN
EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$












000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271050
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
650 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION...AN
UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH
WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING A REINFORCING ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION. WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TODAY AND
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MORE SIMILAR TO MID JANUARY VALUES INSTEAD OF LATE MARCH
VALUES. NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S DURING THE DAY
AND DROP INTO THE TEENS OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...MANY LOCATIONS WILL
SEE SNOW...ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO
GRASSY SURFACES. STILL...AN INCH OF SNOW WOULD NOT BE UNREASONABLE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PA/WV/MD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BY SATURDAY
MORNING...ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH EAST AFTER
SUNRISE. EVEN WITH SKIES CLEARING SATURDAY...COLD NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM RISING MUCH ABOVE TODAYS VALUES. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD...ALLOWING FOR FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND YET ANOTHER
NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE TEENS. RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY BRING SOME RELIEF FROM COLDER TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH
DAYTIME VALUES ON SUNDAY WILL STILL REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. NEXT FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODELS
STILL VARYING IN EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF DEEP MOISTURE PRESENT.
GFS APPEARS TO BE THE FAST OUTLIER...AND HAVE GONE CLOSER TO
NAM/SREF TIMING. RAISED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL DO
NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE TO ADD LIKELY POPS ANYWHERE. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD
FINALLY BRING A PERIOD OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...MEANING THAT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY FALL AS RAIN. FLOW DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF RESULT IN SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE
POPS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CREEP UP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL IN THE EXTENDED WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AND SHORTWAVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY BRINGING CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING AS
CIGS LIFT SLIGHTLY WITH INCREASED MIXING...WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCU IN
COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH
TROUGHING OVER THE AREA...BUT NOT PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD AS
MOISTURE IS LIMITED. VFR THEN EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AS LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271050
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
650 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION...AN
UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH
WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING A REINFORCING ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION. WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TODAY AND
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MORE SIMILAR TO MID JANUARY VALUES INSTEAD OF LATE MARCH
VALUES. NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S DURING THE DAY
AND DROP INTO THE TEENS OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...MANY LOCATIONS WILL
SEE SNOW...ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO
GRASSY SURFACES. STILL...AN INCH OF SNOW WOULD NOT BE UNREASONABLE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PA/WV/MD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BY SATURDAY
MORNING...ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH EAST AFTER
SUNRISE. EVEN WITH SKIES CLEARING SATURDAY...COLD NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM RISING MUCH ABOVE TODAYS VALUES. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD...ALLOWING FOR FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND YET ANOTHER
NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE TEENS. RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY BRING SOME RELIEF FROM COLDER TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH
DAYTIME VALUES ON SUNDAY WILL STILL REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. NEXT FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODELS
STILL VARYING IN EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF DEEP MOISTURE PRESENT.
GFS APPEARS TO BE THE FAST OUTLIER...AND HAVE GONE CLOSER TO
NAM/SREF TIMING. RAISED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL DO
NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE TO ADD LIKELY POPS ANYWHERE. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD
FINALLY BRING A PERIOD OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...MEANING THAT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY FALL AS RAIN. FLOW DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF RESULT IN SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE
POPS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CREEP UP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL IN THE EXTENDED WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AND SHORTWAVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY BRINGING CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING AS
CIGS LIFT SLIGHTLY WITH INCREASED MIXING...WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCU IN
COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH
TROUGHING OVER THE AREA...BUT NOT PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD AS
MOISTURE IS LIMITED. VFR THEN EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AS LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271050
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
650 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION...AN
UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH
WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING A REINFORCING ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION. WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TODAY AND
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MORE SIMILAR TO MID JANUARY VALUES INSTEAD OF LATE MARCH
VALUES. NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S DURING THE DAY
AND DROP INTO THE TEENS OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...MANY LOCATIONS WILL
SEE SNOW...ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO
GRASSY SURFACES. STILL...AN INCH OF SNOW WOULD NOT BE UNREASONABLE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PA/WV/MD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BY SATURDAY
MORNING...ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH EAST AFTER
SUNRISE. EVEN WITH SKIES CLEARING SATURDAY...COLD NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM RISING MUCH ABOVE TODAYS VALUES. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD...ALLOWING FOR FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND YET ANOTHER
NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE TEENS. RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY BRING SOME RELIEF FROM COLDER TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH
DAYTIME VALUES ON SUNDAY WILL STILL REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. NEXT FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODELS
STILL VARYING IN EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF DEEP MOISTURE PRESENT.
GFS APPEARS TO BE THE FAST OUTLIER...AND HAVE GONE CLOSER TO
NAM/SREF TIMING. RAISED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL DO
NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE TO ADD LIKELY POPS ANYWHERE. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD
FINALLY BRING A PERIOD OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...MEANING THAT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY FALL AS RAIN. FLOW DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF RESULT IN SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE
POPS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CREEP UP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL IN THE EXTENDED WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AND SHORTWAVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY BRINGING CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING AS
CIGS LIFT SLIGHTLY WITH INCREASED MIXING...WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCU IN
COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH
TROUGHING OVER THE AREA...BUT NOT PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD AS
MOISTURE IS LIMITED. VFR THEN EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AS LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271050
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
650 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION...AN
UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH
WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING A REINFORCING ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION. WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TODAY AND
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MORE SIMILAR TO MID JANUARY VALUES INSTEAD OF LATE MARCH
VALUES. NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S DURING THE DAY
AND DROP INTO THE TEENS OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...MANY LOCATIONS WILL
SEE SNOW...ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO
GRASSY SURFACES. STILL...AN INCH OF SNOW WOULD NOT BE UNREASONABLE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PA/WV/MD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BY SATURDAY
MORNING...ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH EAST AFTER
SUNRISE. EVEN WITH SKIES CLEARING SATURDAY...COLD NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM RISING MUCH ABOVE TODAYS VALUES. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD...ALLOWING FOR FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND YET ANOTHER
NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE TEENS. RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY BRING SOME RELIEF FROM COLDER TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH
DAYTIME VALUES ON SUNDAY WILL STILL REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. NEXT FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODELS
STILL VARYING IN EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF DEEP MOISTURE PRESENT.
GFS APPEARS TO BE THE FAST OUTLIER...AND HAVE GONE CLOSER TO
NAM/SREF TIMING. RAISED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL DO
NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE TO ADD LIKELY POPS ANYWHERE. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD
FINALLY BRING A PERIOD OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...MEANING THAT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY FALL AS RAIN. FLOW DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF RESULT IN SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE
POPS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CREEP UP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL IN THE EXTENDED WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AND SHORTWAVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY BRINGING CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING AS
CIGS LIFT SLIGHTLY WITH INCREASED MIXING...WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCU IN
COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH
TROUGHING OVER THE AREA...BUT NOT PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD AS
MOISTURE IS LIMITED. VFR THEN EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AS LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270745
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
345 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ALTHOUGH A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION...AN
UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH
WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING A REINFORCING ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION. WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TODAY AND
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MORE SIMILAR TO MID JANUARY VALUES INSTEAD OF LATE MARCH
VALUES. NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S DURING THE DAY
AND DROP INTO THE TEENS OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...MANY LOCATIONS WILL
SEE SNOW...ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO
GRASSY SURFACES. STILL...AN INCH OF SNOW WOULD NOT BE UNREASONABLE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PA/WV/MD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BY SATURDAY
MORNING...ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH EAST AFTER
SUNRISE. EVEN WITH SKIES CLEARING SATURDAY...COLD NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM RISING MUCH ABOVE TODAYS VALUES. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD...ALLOWING FOR FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND YET ANOTHER
NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE TEENS. RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY BRING SOME RELIEF FROM COLDER TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH
DAYTIME VALUES ON SUNDAY WILL STILL REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. NEXT FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODELS
STILL VARYING IN EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF DEEP MOISTURE PRESENT.
GFS APPEARS TO BE THE FAST OUTLIER...AND HAVE GONE CLOSER TO
NAM/SREF TIMING. RAISED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL DO
NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE TO ADD LIKELY POPS ANYWHERE. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD
FINALLY BRING A PERIOD OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...MEANING THAT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY FALL AS RAIN. FLOW DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF RESULT IN SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE
POPS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CREEP UP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL IN THE EXTENDED WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AND SHORTWAVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY BRINGING CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCU IN COLD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH
TROUGHING OVER THE AREA...BUT NOT PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD AS
MOISTURE IS LIMITED. VFR THEN EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AS LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270745
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
345 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ALTHOUGH A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION...AN
UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH
WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING A REINFORCING ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION. WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TODAY AND
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MORE SIMILAR TO MID JANUARY VALUES INSTEAD OF LATE MARCH
VALUES. NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S DURING THE DAY
AND DROP INTO THE TEENS OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...MANY LOCATIONS WILL
SEE SNOW...ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO
GRASSY SURFACES. STILL...AN INCH OF SNOW WOULD NOT BE UNREASONABLE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PA/WV/MD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BY SATURDAY
MORNING...ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH EAST AFTER
SUNRISE. EVEN WITH SKIES CLEARING SATURDAY...COLD NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM RISING MUCH ABOVE TODAYS VALUES. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD...ALLOWING FOR FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND YET ANOTHER
NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE TEENS. RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY BRING SOME RELIEF FROM COLDER TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH
DAYTIME VALUES ON SUNDAY WILL STILL REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. NEXT FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODELS
STILL VARYING IN EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF DEEP MOISTURE PRESENT.
GFS APPEARS TO BE THE FAST OUTLIER...AND HAVE GONE CLOSER TO
NAM/SREF TIMING. RAISED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL DO
NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE TO ADD LIKELY POPS ANYWHERE. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD
FINALLY BRING A PERIOD OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...MEANING THAT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY FALL AS RAIN. FLOW DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF RESULT IN SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE
POPS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CREEP UP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL IN THE EXTENDED WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AND SHORTWAVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY BRINGING CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCU IN COLD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH
TROUGHING OVER THE AREA...BUT NOT PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD AS
MOISTURE IS LIMITED. VFR THEN EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AS LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270745
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
345 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ALTHOUGH A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION...AN
UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH
WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING A REINFORCING ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION. WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TODAY AND
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MORE SIMILAR TO MID JANUARY VALUES INSTEAD OF LATE MARCH
VALUES. NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S DURING THE DAY
AND DROP INTO THE TEENS OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...MANY LOCATIONS WILL
SEE SNOW...ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO
GRASSY SURFACES. STILL...AN INCH OF SNOW WOULD NOT BE UNREASONABLE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PA/WV/MD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BY SATURDAY
MORNING...ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH EAST AFTER
SUNRISE. EVEN WITH SKIES CLEARING SATURDAY...COLD NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM RISING MUCH ABOVE TODAYS VALUES. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD...ALLOWING FOR FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND YET ANOTHER
NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE TEENS. RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY BRING SOME RELIEF FROM COLDER TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH
DAYTIME VALUES ON SUNDAY WILL STILL REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. NEXT FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODELS
STILL VARYING IN EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF DEEP MOISTURE PRESENT.
GFS APPEARS TO BE THE FAST OUTLIER...AND HAVE GONE CLOSER TO
NAM/SREF TIMING. RAISED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL DO
NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE TO ADD LIKELY POPS ANYWHERE. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD
FINALLY BRING A PERIOD OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...MEANING THAT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY FALL AS RAIN. FLOW DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF RESULT IN SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE
POPS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CREEP UP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL IN THE EXTENDED WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AND SHORTWAVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY BRINGING CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCU IN COLD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH
TROUGHING OVER THE AREA...BUT NOT PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD AS
MOISTURE IS LIMITED. VFR THEN EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AS LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270745
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
345 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ALTHOUGH A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION...AN
UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH
WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING A REINFORCING ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION. WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TODAY AND
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MORE SIMILAR TO MID JANUARY VALUES INSTEAD OF LATE MARCH
VALUES. NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S DURING THE DAY
AND DROP INTO THE TEENS OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...MANY LOCATIONS WILL
SEE SNOW...ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO
GRASSY SURFACES. STILL...AN INCH OF SNOW WOULD NOT BE UNREASONABLE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PA/WV/MD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BY SATURDAY
MORNING...ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH EAST AFTER
SUNRISE. EVEN WITH SKIES CLEARING SATURDAY...COLD NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM RISING MUCH ABOVE TODAYS VALUES. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD...ALLOWING FOR FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND YET ANOTHER
NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE TEENS. RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY BRING SOME RELIEF FROM COLDER TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH
DAYTIME VALUES ON SUNDAY WILL STILL REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. NEXT FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODELS
STILL VARYING IN EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF DEEP MOISTURE PRESENT.
GFS APPEARS TO BE THE FAST OUTLIER...AND HAVE GONE CLOSER TO
NAM/SREF TIMING. RAISED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL DO
NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE TO ADD LIKELY POPS ANYWHERE. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD
FINALLY BRING A PERIOD OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...MEANING THAT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY FALL AS RAIN. FLOW DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF RESULT IN SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE
POPS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CREEP UP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL IN THE EXTENDED WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AND SHORTWAVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY BRINGING CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCU IN COLD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH
TROUGHING OVER THE AREA...BUT NOT PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD AS
MOISTURE IS LIMITED. VFR THEN EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AS LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270404
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1204 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE INCLUDED MINIMAL CHANGES TO PRECIPITATION AND
HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS. REMAINING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW...BUT COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THE
UPPER SUPPORT AND DEEPER MOISTURE SUPPLY DEPART. NO ACCUMULATION
OTHER THAN A SPOTTY FEW TENTHS ON GRASSY AREAS IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WITH COLD
ADVECTION AND NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO KEEP RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE DEEP MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED...THERE IS A PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE SEVERAL OF
THE MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE INTO THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES. THIS
IS BETTER REPRESENTED IN THE FORECAST POINTS NORTH OF I-80 AND IN
THE RIDGES WITH UPSLOPE SUPPORT...SO THE HIGHEST POPS WERE
MAINTAINED IN THOSE LOCATIONS. WHILE SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE WITH
FALLING TEMPERATURES AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION...IT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN AN INCH AND MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES.

850HPA TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR -18C BY SATURDAY MORNING SO
EXPECT BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BY SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. HOWEVER WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OVERHEAD
SATURDAY NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY KEEP LOWS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING THE RISK FOR RAIN OR SNOW AND ANOTHER SHOT OF
COLD AIR ON MONDAY. DRY WEATHER AND A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND EXITING LOW PRESSURE. THESE
CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY IN COLD NORTHWEST FLOW...UNTIL
MIXING ALLOWS FOR A RETURN TO VFR STRATOCU BY MID AFTERNOON FOR
PORTS SOUTH OF I 80.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH EARLY WEEK LOW
PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270404
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1204 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE INCLUDED MINIMAL CHANGES TO PRECIPITATION AND
HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS. REMAINING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW...BUT COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THE
UPPER SUPPORT AND DEEPER MOISTURE SUPPLY DEPART. NO ACCUMULATION
OTHER THAN A SPOTTY FEW TENTHS ON GRASSY AREAS IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WITH COLD
ADVECTION AND NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO KEEP RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE DEEP MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED...THERE IS A PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE SEVERAL OF
THE MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE INTO THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES. THIS
IS BETTER REPRESENTED IN THE FORECAST POINTS NORTH OF I-80 AND IN
THE RIDGES WITH UPSLOPE SUPPORT...SO THE HIGHEST POPS WERE
MAINTAINED IN THOSE LOCATIONS. WHILE SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE WITH
FALLING TEMPERATURES AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION...IT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN AN INCH AND MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES.

850HPA TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR -18C BY SATURDAY MORNING SO
EXPECT BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BY SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. HOWEVER WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OVERHEAD
SATURDAY NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY KEEP LOWS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING THE RISK FOR RAIN OR SNOW AND ANOTHER SHOT OF
COLD AIR ON MONDAY. DRY WEATHER AND A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND EXITING LOW PRESSURE. THESE
CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY IN COLD NORTHWEST FLOW...UNTIL
MIXING ALLOWS FOR A RETURN TO VFR STRATOCU BY MID AFTERNOON FOR
PORTS SOUTH OF I 80.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH EARLY WEEK LOW
PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270404
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1204 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE INCLUDED MINIMAL CHANGES TO PRECIPITATION AND
HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS. REMAINING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW...BUT COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THE
UPPER SUPPORT AND DEEPER MOISTURE SUPPLY DEPART. NO ACCUMULATION
OTHER THAN A SPOTTY FEW TENTHS ON GRASSY AREAS IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WITH COLD
ADVECTION AND NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO KEEP RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE DEEP MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED...THERE IS A PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE SEVERAL OF
THE MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE INTO THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES. THIS
IS BETTER REPRESENTED IN THE FORECAST POINTS NORTH OF I-80 AND IN
THE RIDGES WITH UPSLOPE SUPPORT...SO THE HIGHEST POPS WERE
MAINTAINED IN THOSE LOCATIONS. WHILE SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE WITH
FALLING TEMPERATURES AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION...IT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN AN INCH AND MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES.

850HPA TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR -18C BY SATURDAY MORNING SO
EXPECT BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BY SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. HOWEVER WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OVERHEAD
SATURDAY NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY KEEP LOWS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING THE RISK FOR RAIN OR SNOW AND ANOTHER SHOT OF
COLD AIR ON MONDAY. DRY WEATHER AND A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND EXITING LOW PRESSURE. THESE
CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY IN COLD NORTHWEST FLOW...UNTIL
MIXING ALLOWS FOR A RETURN TO VFR STRATOCU BY MID AFTERNOON FOR
PORTS SOUTH OF I 80.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH EARLY WEEK LOW
PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270404
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1204 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE INCLUDED MINIMAL CHANGES TO PRECIPITATION AND
HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS. REMAINING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW...BUT COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THE
UPPER SUPPORT AND DEEPER MOISTURE SUPPLY DEPART. NO ACCUMULATION
OTHER THAN A SPOTTY FEW TENTHS ON GRASSY AREAS IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WITH COLD
ADVECTION AND NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO KEEP RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE DEEP MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED...THERE IS A PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE SEVERAL OF
THE MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE INTO THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES. THIS
IS BETTER REPRESENTED IN THE FORECAST POINTS NORTH OF I-80 AND IN
THE RIDGES WITH UPSLOPE SUPPORT...SO THE HIGHEST POPS WERE
MAINTAINED IN THOSE LOCATIONS. WHILE SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE WITH
FALLING TEMPERATURES AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION...IT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN AN INCH AND MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES.

850HPA TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR -18C BY SATURDAY MORNING SO
EXPECT BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BY SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. HOWEVER WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OVERHEAD
SATURDAY NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY KEEP LOWS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING THE RISK FOR RAIN OR SNOW AND ANOTHER SHOT OF
COLD AIR ON MONDAY. DRY WEATHER AND A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND EXITING LOW PRESSURE. THESE
CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY IN COLD NORTHWEST FLOW...UNTIL
MIXING ALLOWS FOR A RETURN TO VFR STRATOCU BY MID AFTERNOON FOR
PORTS SOUTH OF I 80.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH EARLY WEEK LOW
PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270051
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
851 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE LATE EVE UPDATE FEATURED FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TRENDS
AS COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ENCROACH THROUGH THE
NIGHT...REMAINING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW...BUT
COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THE UPPER SUPPORT AND DEEPER
MOISTURE SUPPLY DEPART. NO ACCUMULATION OTHER THAN A SPOTTY FEW
TENTHS ON GRASSY AREAS IS EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT...HENCE NO
CHANGES WERE NEEDED DESPITE THE TREND ADJUSTMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WITH COLD
ADVECTION AND NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO KEEP RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE DEEP MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED...THERE IS A PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE SEVERAL OF
THE MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE INTO THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES. THIS
IS BETTER REPRESENTED IN THE FORECAST POINTS NORTH OF I-80 AND IN
THE RIDGES WITH UPSLOPE SUPPORT...SO THE HIGHEST POPS WERE
MAINTAINED IN THOSE LOCATIONS. WHILE SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE WITH
FALLING TEMPERATURES AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION...IT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN AN INCH AND MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES.

850HPA TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR -18C BY SATURDAY MORNING SO
EXPECT BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BY SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. HOWEVER WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OVERHEAD
SATURDAY NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY KEEP LOWS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING THE RISK FOR RAIN OR SNOW AND ANOTHER SHOT OF
COLD AIR ON MONDAY. DRY WEATHER AND A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TONIGHT WITH
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND EXITING LOW PRESSURE. THESE
CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY IN COLD NORTHWEST FLOW...UNTIL
MIXING ALLOWS FOR A RETURN TO VFR STRATOCU BY MID AFTERNOON FOR
PORTS SOUTH OF I 80.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH EARLY WEEK LOW
PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270051
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
851 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE LATE EVE UPDATE FEATURED FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TRENDS
AS COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ENCROACH THROUGH THE
NIGHT...REMAINING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW...BUT
COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THE UPPER SUPPORT AND DEEPER
MOISTURE SUPPLY DEPART. NO ACCUMULATION OTHER THAN A SPOTTY FEW
TENTHS ON GRASSY AREAS IS EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT...HENCE NO
CHANGES WERE NEEDED DESPITE THE TREND ADJUSTMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WITH COLD
ADVECTION AND NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO KEEP RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE DEEP MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED...THERE IS A PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE SEVERAL OF
THE MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE INTO THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES. THIS
IS BETTER REPRESENTED IN THE FORECAST POINTS NORTH OF I-80 AND IN
THE RIDGES WITH UPSLOPE SUPPORT...SO THE HIGHEST POPS WERE
MAINTAINED IN THOSE LOCATIONS. WHILE SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE WITH
FALLING TEMPERATURES AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION...IT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN AN INCH AND MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES.

850HPA TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR -18C BY SATURDAY MORNING SO
EXPECT BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BY SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. HOWEVER WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OVERHEAD
SATURDAY NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY KEEP LOWS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING THE RISK FOR RAIN OR SNOW AND ANOTHER SHOT OF
COLD AIR ON MONDAY. DRY WEATHER AND A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TONIGHT WITH
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND EXITING LOW PRESSURE. THESE
CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY IN COLD NORTHWEST FLOW...UNTIL
MIXING ALLOWS FOR A RETURN TO VFR STRATOCU BY MID AFTERNOON FOR
PORTS SOUTH OF I 80.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH EARLY WEEK LOW
PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270051
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
851 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE LATE EVE UPDATE FEATURED FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TRENDS
AS COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ENCROACH THROUGH THE
NIGHT...REMAINING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW...BUT
COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THE UPPER SUPPORT AND DEEPER
MOISTURE SUPPLY DEPART. NO ACCUMULATION OTHER THAN A SPOTTY FEW
TENTHS ON GRASSY AREAS IS EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT...HENCE NO
CHANGES WERE NEEDED DESPITE THE TREND ADJUSTMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WITH COLD
ADVECTION AND NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO KEEP RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE DEEP MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED...THERE IS A PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE SEVERAL OF
THE MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE INTO THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES. THIS
IS BETTER REPRESENTED IN THE FORECAST POINTS NORTH OF I-80 AND IN
THE RIDGES WITH UPSLOPE SUPPORT...SO THE HIGHEST POPS WERE
MAINTAINED IN THOSE LOCATIONS. WHILE SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE WITH
FALLING TEMPERATURES AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION...IT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN AN INCH AND MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES.

850HPA TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR -18C BY SATURDAY MORNING SO
EXPECT BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BY SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. HOWEVER WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OVERHEAD
SATURDAY NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY KEEP LOWS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING THE RISK FOR RAIN OR SNOW AND ANOTHER SHOT OF
COLD AIR ON MONDAY. DRY WEATHER AND A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TONIGHT WITH
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND EXITING LOW PRESSURE. THESE
CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY IN COLD NORTHWEST FLOW...UNTIL
MIXING ALLOWS FOR A RETURN TO VFR STRATOCU BY MID AFTERNOON FOR
PORTS SOUTH OF I 80.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH EARLY WEEK LOW
PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 262137
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
537 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE EARLY EVE UPDATE PRIMARILY FEATURED ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY
TRENDS OF TEMPERATURE AND WEATHER AS THE FRONT HAS COMPLETED
PASSAGE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. AS THE COLDER AIR
ENCROACHES THROUGH THE NIGHT...REMAINING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW...BUT COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THE
UPPER SUPPORT AND DEEPER MOISTURE SUPPLY DEPART. NO ACCUMULATION
OTHER THAN A SPOTTY FEW TENTHS ON GRASSY AREAS IS EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT...HENCE NO
CHANGES WERE NEEDED DESPITE THE TREND ADJUSTMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WITH COLD
ADVECTION AND NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO KEEP RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE DEEP MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED...THERE IS A PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE SEVERAL OF
THE MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE INTO THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES. THIS
IS BETTER REPRESENTED IN THE FORECAST POINTS NORTH OF I-80 AND IN
THE RIDGES WITH UPSLOPE SUPPORT...SO THE HIGHEST POPS WERE
MAINTAINED IN THOSE LOCATIONS. WHILE SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE WITH
FALLING TEMPERATURES AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION...IT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN AN INCH AND MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES.

850HPA TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR -18C BY SATURDAY MORNING SO
EXPECT BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BY SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. HOWEVER WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OVERHEAD
SATURDAY NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY KEEP LOWS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING THE RISK FOR RAIN OR SNOW AND ANOTHER SHOT OF
COLD AIR ON MONDAY. DRY WEATHER AND A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AND SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION.
AFTER THE LOW EXITS LATE THIS EVENING...LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP MVFR CIGS AT ALL PORTS. THESE CIGS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY IN COLD NORTHWEST FLOW.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH EARLY WEEK LOW
PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 261927
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
327 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SPILL IN TONIGHT AND LAST INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FRONT HAS ADVANCED THROUGH LBE AND WILL PASS MGW SHORTLY. TIGHT
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE BOUNDARY...WHICH IS HELPING TO
FEED A STRONGER LINE OF SHRA ALONG THE FRONT IN THE RLX CWA.
LIGHTER SHOWERS EXIST BEHIND. THUNDER HAS BEEN NONEXISTENT SO
FAR...BUT COULD STILL SEE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

DESPITE THE QUICK COOLDOWN BEHIND THE FRONT...SUBZERO LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR IS LAGGING THE BOUNDARY A BIT. THIS WILL DELAY THE
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FOR MOST AREAS UNTIL THE EVENING
HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE FKL AREA SHOULD START TO SEE FLAKES BEFORE
00Z. WITH DEEP MOISTURE DEPARTING QUICKLY AND THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE
ABOVE WHAT MOISTURE THERE IS...PLUS THE WARM GROUND...
ACCUMULATIONS WILL HARD TO COME BY. EXPECTING LESS THAN AN INCH
FOR THE MOST PART. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BOTTOM OUT DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS...ALTHOUGH IT WILL START TO TICK UP AGAIN TOWARDS
12Z AS MAIN H500 SHORTWAVE STARTS TO APPROACH. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURE FORECAST ALREADY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS AND MADE LITTLE CHANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WITH COLD
ADVECTION AND NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO KEEP RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE DEEP MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED...THERE IS A PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE SEVERAL OF
THE MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE INTO THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES. THIS
IS BETTER REPRESENTED IN THE FORECAST POINTS NORTH OF I-80 AND IN
THE RIDGES WITH UPSLOPE SUPPORT...SO THE HIGHEST POPS WERE
MAINTAINED IN THOSE LOCATIONS. WHILE SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE WITH
FALLING TEMPERATURES AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION...IT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN AN INCH AND MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES.

850HPA TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR -18C BY SATURDAY MORNING SO
EXPECT BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BY SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. HOWEVER WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OVERHEAD
SATURDAY NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY KEEP LOWS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING THE RISK FOR RAIN OR SNOW AND ANOTHER SHOT OF
COLD AIR ON MONDAY. DRY WEATHER AND A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
IN LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LITTLE CHANCE OF SEEING TSRA AT
THE TERMINALS AT THIS POINT. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE WITH
TIME. CHANGEOVER TO SHSN WILL OCCUR SLOWLY TONIGHT...BUT CIG/VIS
SHOULD MOSTLY BE MVFR AT WORST OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING SHOWER
COVERAGE TO INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 12Z WITH APPROACH OF
SHORTWAVE...BUT CIGS WILL KEEP SLOWLY IMPROVING THROUGH MVFR.
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH BY EVENING AND SETTLE
TOWARDS NW.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$












000
FXUS61 KPBZ 261927
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
327 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SPILL IN TONIGHT AND LAST INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FRONT HAS ADVANCED THROUGH LBE AND WILL PASS MGW SHORTLY. TIGHT
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE BOUNDARY...WHICH IS HELPING TO
FEED A STRONGER LINE OF SHRA ALONG THE FRONT IN THE RLX CWA.
LIGHTER SHOWERS EXIST BEHIND. THUNDER HAS BEEN NONEXISTENT SO
FAR...BUT COULD STILL SEE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

DESPITE THE QUICK COOLDOWN BEHIND THE FRONT...SUBZERO LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR IS LAGGING THE BOUNDARY A BIT. THIS WILL DELAY THE
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FOR MOST AREAS UNTIL THE EVENING
HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE FKL AREA SHOULD START TO SEE FLAKES BEFORE
00Z. WITH DEEP MOISTURE DEPARTING QUICKLY AND THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE
ABOVE WHAT MOISTURE THERE IS...PLUS THE WARM GROUND...
ACCUMULATIONS WILL HARD TO COME BY. EXPECTING LESS THAN AN INCH
FOR THE MOST PART. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BOTTOM OUT DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS...ALTHOUGH IT WILL START TO TICK UP AGAIN TOWARDS
12Z AS MAIN H500 SHORTWAVE STARTS TO APPROACH. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURE FORECAST ALREADY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS AND MADE LITTLE CHANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WITH COLD
ADVECTION AND NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO KEEP RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE DEEP MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED...THERE IS A PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE SEVERAL OF
THE MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE INTO THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES. THIS
IS BETTER REPRESENTED IN THE FORECAST POINTS NORTH OF I-80 AND IN
THE RIDGES WITH UPSLOPE SUPPORT...SO THE HIGHEST POPS WERE
MAINTAINED IN THOSE LOCATIONS. WHILE SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE WITH
FALLING TEMPERATURES AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION...IT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN AN INCH AND MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES.

850HPA TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR -18C BY SATURDAY MORNING SO
EXPECT BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BY SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. HOWEVER WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OVERHEAD
SATURDAY NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY KEEP LOWS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING THE RISK FOR RAIN OR SNOW AND ANOTHER SHOT OF
COLD AIR ON MONDAY. DRY WEATHER AND A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
IN LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LITTLE CHANCE OF SEEING TSRA AT
THE TERMINALS AT THIS POINT. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE WITH
TIME. CHANGEOVER TO SHSN WILL OCCUR SLOWLY TONIGHT...BUT CIG/VIS
SHOULD MOSTLY BE MVFR AT WORST OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING SHOWER
COVERAGE TO INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 12Z WITH APPROACH OF
SHORTWAVE...BUT CIGS WILL KEEP SLOWLY IMPROVING THROUGH MVFR.
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH BY EVENING AND SETTLE
TOWARDS NW.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 261805
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
205 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SPILL IN TONIGHT AND LAST INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FRONT HAS ADVANCED THROUGH LBE AND WILL PASS MGW SHORTLY. TIGHT
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE BOUNDARY...WHICH IS HELPING TO
FEED A STRONGER LINE OF SHRA ALONG THE FRONT IN THE RLX CWA.
LIGHTER SHOWERS EXIST BEHIND. THUNDER HAS BEEN NONEXISTENT SO
FAR...BUT COULD STILL SEE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

DESPITE THE QUICK COOLDOWN BEHIND THE FRONT...SUBZERO LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR IS LAGGING THE BOUNDARY A BIT. THIS WILL DELAY THE
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FOR MOST AREAS UNTIL THE EVENING
HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE FKL AREA SHOULD START TO SEE FLAKES BEFORE
00Z. WITH DEEP MOISTURE DEPARTING QUICKLY AND THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE
ABOVE WHAT MOISTURE THERE IS...PLUS THE WARM GROUND...
ACCUMULATIONS WILL HARD TO COME BY. EXPECTING LESS THAN AN INCH
FOR THE MOST PART. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BOTTOM OUT DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS...ALTHOUGH IT WILL START TO TICK UP AGAIN TOWARDS
12Z AS MAIN H500 SHORTWAVE STARTS TO APPROACH. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURE FORECAST ALREADY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS AND MADE LITTLE CHANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRECIP COVERAGE WILL DECREASE QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN AND SUPPORT WAVERS...WITH ANY REMAINING
PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WITH TIME AS SUBZERO 850 MB AIR LAGS THE FRONT A BIT. GIVEN THE
TIME OF YEAR AND RELATIVELY WARM GROUND...NOT EXPECTING MUCH SNOW
ACCUMULATION.

SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE WILL BE SHALLOW
AND LIMITED AND EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THE BOUNDARY
LAYER LOOKS TO BE WARM ENOUGH TO WHERE WE WILL SEE A MIX OR
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN IN MANY AREAS BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW
FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS
H850 THERMAL TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A
MODERATION IN TEMPS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
RISK FOR RAIN OR SNOW AND ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR ON MONDAY. DRY
WEATHER AND A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONT NOW PASSING THROUGH MGW. IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR
SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY IN LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
LITTLE CHANCE OF SEEING TSRA AT THE TERMINALS AT THIS POINT.
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE WITH TIME. CHANGEOVER TO SHSN WILL
OCCUR SLOWLY TONIGHT...BUT CIG/VIS SHOULD MOSTLY BE MVFR AT WORST
OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING SHOWER COVERAGE TO INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 12Z
WITH APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE...BUT CIGS WILL KEEP SLOWLY IMPROVING
THROUGH MVFR. GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH BY EVENING
AND SETTLE TOWARDS NW.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 261805
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
205 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SPILL IN TONIGHT AND LAST INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FRONT HAS ADVANCED THROUGH LBE AND WILL PASS MGW SHORTLY. TIGHT
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE BOUNDARY...WHICH IS HELPING TO
FEED A STRONGER LINE OF SHRA ALONG THE FRONT IN THE RLX CWA.
LIGHTER SHOWERS EXIST BEHIND. THUNDER HAS BEEN NONEXISTENT SO
FAR...BUT COULD STILL SEE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

DESPITE THE QUICK COOLDOWN BEHIND THE FRONT...SUBZERO LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR IS LAGGING THE BOUNDARY A BIT. THIS WILL DELAY THE
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FOR MOST AREAS UNTIL THE EVENING
HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE FKL AREA SHOULD START TO SEE FLAKES BEFORE
00Z. WITH DEEP MOISTURE DEPARTING QUICKLY AND THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE
ABOVE WHAT MOISTURE THERE IS...PLUS THE WARM GROUND...
ACCUMULATIONS WILL HARD TO COME BY. EXPECTING LESS THAN AN INCH
FOR THE MOST PART. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BOTTOM OUT DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS...ALTHOUGH IT WILL START TO TICK UP AGAIN TOWARDS
12Z AS MAIN H500 SHORTWAVE STARTS TO APPROACH. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURE FORECAST ALREADY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS AND MADE LITTLE CHANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRECIP COVERAGE WILL DECREASE QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN AND SUPPORT WAVERS...WITH ANY REMAINING
PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WITH TIME AS SUBZERO 850 MB AIR LAGS THE FRONT A BIT. GIVEN THE
TIME OF YEAR AND RELATIVELY WARM GROUND...NOT EXPECTING MUCH SNOW
ACCUMULATION.

SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE WILL BE SHALLOW
AND LIMITED AND EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THE BOUNDARY
LAYER LOOKS TO BE WARM ENOUGH TO WHERE WE WILL SEE A MIX OR
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN IN MANY AREAS BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW
FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS
H850 THERMAL TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A
MODERATION IN TEMPS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
RISK FOR RAIN OR SNOW AND ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR ON MONDAY. DRY
WEATHER AND A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONT NOW PASSING THROUGH MGW. IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR
SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY IN LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
LITTLE CHANCE OF SEEING TSRA AT THE TERMINALS AT THIS POINT.
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE WITH TIME. CHANGEOVER TO SHSN WILL
OCCUR SLOWLY TONIGHT...BUT CIG/VIS SHOULD MOSTLY BE MVFR AT WORST
OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING SHOWER COVERAGE TO INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 12Z
WITH APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE...BUT CIGS WILL KEEP SLOWLY IMPROVING
THROUGH MVFR. GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH BY EVENING
AND SETTLE TOWARDS NW.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 261408
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1008 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION.
MUCH COLDER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE EAST
TODAY...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES. VWP/MORNING
SOUNDINGS SHOW 40-50 KNOT WINDS JUST A FEW THOUSAND FEET OFF THE
GROUND. AREAS LIKE MGW AND LBE WILL LIKELY ABLE TO MIX SOME OF
THAT WIND DOWN WITH AT LEAST A LITTLE SUN BEFORE THE MAIN FRONTAL
PRECIP ARRIVES...AND HAVE ADDED 25-35 KNOT GUSTS TO THE AREA.
SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THINK ANY SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL NOT BE ABLE TO BRING STRONGER/SEVERE GUSTS TO THE
GROUND AT THIS TIME BUT WILL MONITOR. MOST OTHER CHANGES WERE
MAINLY MINOR...BUT DID REDUCE POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR A FEW
HOURS IN THE WARM SECTOR. DID NOT CHANGE OVER FKL TO SNOW PRIOR TO
00Z FOR NOW BUT THIS REMAINS POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY
COLDER AIR CAN MOVE IN. STILL THINK FRONT CLEARS CWA BY 21Z OR SO.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

THERE IS SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
70 LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
PUSHING OVER 50F AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING A THIN BUT POSITIVE
CAPE PROFILE. SREF MEAN VALUES ARE LOW BUT PRESENT AROUND 50 J/KG
AS FAR NORTH AS PITTSBURGH BUT FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS MORGANTOWN
MEAN VALUES INCREASE TO BETWEEN 300-400. EASTERN COUNTIES WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER IN THE DAY WILL ALSO BE MORE UNSTABLE WITH
MORE TIME TO WARM UP IN THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. EXPECT ANY DEVELOPMENT TO BE CONFINED TO ALONG THE FRONT IN
THE ABSENCE OF ANY OTHER TRIGGER...WITH MAIN POTENTIAL IMPACT
BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH LAPSE RATES RANGING FROM 8-10 C/KM IN
THE LOWER LEVELS AND A FAIR AMOUNT LOW LEVEL SHEAR.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE RESPECTABLE...BETWEEN ONE
AND TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS...AND WITH THE
AREA UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET MAX...INCREASED LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW...AND POTENTIAL FOR MORE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE AROUND A
HALF INCH OF QPF IN GENERAL. THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE
SOUTHERN OHIO BORDER AND UP ACROSS CENTRAL PA...WITH THE GREATEST
QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THIS TRACK...UP TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES DOWN TO BELOW ONE
HALF INCH ACROSS THE SOUTH.

EXPECTING A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRACE ESPECIALLY IN THE
WEST...WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES....FALLING RAPIDLY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRECIP COVERAGE WILL DECREASE QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN AND SUPPORT WAVERS...WITH ANY REMAINING
PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WITH TIME AS SUBZERO 850 MB AIR LAGS THE FRONT A BIT. GIVEN THE
TIME OF YEAR AND RELATIVELY WARM GROUND...NOT EXPECTING MUCH SNOW
ACCUMULATION.

SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE WILL BE SHALLOW
AND LIMITED AND EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THE BOUNDARY
LAYER LOOKS TO BE WARM ENOUGH TO WHERE WE WILL SEE A MIX OR
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN IN MANY AREAS BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW
FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS
H850 THERMAL TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A
MODERATION IN TEMPS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
RISK FOR RAIN OR SNOW AND ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR ON MONDAY. DRY
WEATHER AND A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONDITION DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT WITH THE ADVANCE
OF LOW PRESSURE. MVFR CEILING DEVELOPMENT WILL DEGRADE TO IFR IN
SHOWERS DURING THE AROUND DAWN AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
IMPROVEMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
LATE IN THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 261408
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1008 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION.
MUCH COLDER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE EAST
TODAY...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES. VWP/MORNING
SOUNDINGS SHOW 40-50 KNOT WINDS JUST A FEW THOUSAND FEET OFF THE
GROUND. AREAS LIKE MGW AND LBE WILL LIKELY ABLE TO MIX SOME OF
THAT WIND DOWN WITH AT LEAST A LITTLE SUN BEFORE THE MAIN FRONTAL
PRECIP ARRIVES...AND HAVE ADDED 25-35 KNOT GUSTS TO THE AREA.
SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THINK ANY SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL NOT BE ABLE TO BRING STRONGER/SEVERE GUSTS TO THE
GROUND AT THIS TIME BUT WILL MONITOR. MOST OTHER CHANGES WERE
MAINLY MINOR...BUT DID REDUCE POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR A FEW
HOURS IN THE WARM SECTOR. DID NOT CHANGE OVER FKL TO SNOW PRIOR TO
00Z FOR NOW BUT THIS REMAINS POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY
COLDER AIR CAN MOVE IN. STILL THINK FRONT CLEARS CWA BY 21Z OR SO.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

THERE IS SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
70 LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
PUSHING OVER 50F AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING A THIN BUT POSITIVE
CAPE PROFILE. SREF MEAN VALUES ARE LOW BUT PRESENT AROUND 50 J/KG
AS FAR NORTH AS PITTSBURGH BUT FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS MORGANTOWN
MEAN VALUES INCREASE TO BETWEEN 300-400. EASTERN COUNTIES WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER IN THE DAY WILL ALSO BE MORE UNSTABLE WITH
MORE TIME TO WARM UP IN THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. EXPECT ANY DEVELOPMENT TO BE CONFINED TO ALONG THE FRONT IN
THE ABSENCE OF ANY OTHER TRIGGER...WITH MAIN POTENTIAL IMPACT
BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH LAPSE RATES RANGING FROM 8-10 C/KM IN
THE LOWER LEVELS AND A FAIR AMOUNT LOW LEVEL SHEAR.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE RESPECTABLE...BETWEEN ONE
AND TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS...AND WITH THE
AREA UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET MAX...INCREASED LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW...AND POTENTIAL FOR MORE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE AROUND A
HALF INCH OF QPF IN GENERAL. THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE
SOUTHERN OHIO BORDER AND UP ACROSS CENTRAL PA...WITH THE GREATEST
QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THIS TRACK...UP TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES DOWN TO BELOW ONE
HALF INCH ACROSS THE SOUTH.

EXPECTING A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRACE ESPECIALLY IN THE
WEST...WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES....FALLING RAPIDLY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRECIP COVERAGE WILL DECREASE QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN AND SUPPORT WAVERS...WITH ANY REMAINING
PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WITH TIME AS SUBZERO 850 MB AIR LAGS THE FRONT A BIT. GIVEN THE
TIME OF YEAR AND RELATIVELY WARM GROUND...NOT EXPECTING MUCH SNOW
ACCUMULATION.

SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE WILL BE SHALLOW
AND LIMITED AND EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THE BOUNDARY
LAYER LOOKS TO BE WARM ENOUGH TO WHERE WE WILL SEE A MIX OR
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN IN MANY AREAS BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW
FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS
H850 THERMAL TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A
MODERATION IN TEMPS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
RISK FOR RAIN OR SNOW AND ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR ON MONDAY. DRY
WEATHER AND A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONDITION DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT WITH THE ADVANCE
OF LOW PRESSURE. MVFR CEILING DEVELOPMENT WILL DEGRADE TO IFR IN
SHOWERS DURING THE AROUND DAWN AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
IMPROVEMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
LATE IN THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 261052
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
652 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION.
MUCH COLDER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH GREATER COVERAGE STILL TO THE WEST AND ALIGNED WELL
WITH A BAND OF 850MB FRONTOGENESIS. WITH THAT...NO MAJOR CHANGES
LOOK NEEDED AT THIS POINT AS LATEST MODEL PROGS OF THIS FEATURE
LINE UP WELL WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE
MADE TO BETTER ALIGN TEMPERATURES WITH OBS TRENDS AND ALSO
INCLUDE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO
ZONES EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..

AS THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

THERE IS SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
70 LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
PUSHING OVER 50F AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING A THIN BUT POSITIVE
CAPE PROFILE. SREF MEAN VALUES ARE LOW BUT PRESENT AROUND 50 J/KG
AS FAR NORTH AS PITTSBURGH BUT FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS MORGANTOWN
MEAN VALUES INCREASE TO BETWEEN 300-400. EASTERN COUNTIES WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER IN THE DAY WILL ALSO BE MORE UNSTABLE WITH
MORE TIME TO WARM UP IN THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. EXPECT ANY DEVELOPMENT TO BE CONFINED TO ALONG THE FRONT IN
THE ABSENCE OF ANY OTHER TRIGGER...WITH MAIN POTENTIAL IMPACT
BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH LAPSE RATES RANGING FROM 8-10 C/KM IN
THE LOWER LEVELS AND A FAIR AMOUNT LOW LEVEL SHEAR.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE RESPECTABLE...BETWEEN ONE
AND TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS...AND WITH THE
AREA UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET MAX...INCREASED LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW...AND POTENTIAL FOR MORE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE AROUND A
HALF INCH OF QPF IN GENERAL. THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE
SOUTHERN OHIO BORDER AND UP ACROSS CENTRAL PA...WITH THE GREATEST
QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THIS TRACK...UP TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES DOWN TO BELOW ONE
HALF INCH ACROSS THE SOUTH.

EXPECTING A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRACE ESPECIALLY IN THE
WEST...WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES....FALLING RAPIDLY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRECIP COVERAGE WILL DECREASE QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN AND SUPPORT WAVERS...WITH ANY REMAINING
PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WITH TIME AS SUBZERO 850 MB AIR LAGS THE FRONT A BIT. GIVEN THE
TIME OF YEAR AND RELATIVELY WARM GROUND...NOT EXPECTING MUCH SNOW
ACCUMULATION.

SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE WILL BE SHALLOW
AND LIMITED AND EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THE BOUNDARY
LAYER LOOKS TO BE WARM ENOUGH TO WHERE WE WILL SEE A MIX OR
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN IN MANY AREAS BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW
FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS
H850 THERMAL TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A
MODERATION IN TEMPS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
RISK FOR RAIN OR SNOW AND ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR ON MONDAY. DRY
WEATHER AND A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONDITION DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT WITH THE ADVANCE
OF LOW PRESSURE. MVFR CEILING DEVELOPMENT WILL DEGRADE TO IFR IN
SHOWERS DURING THE AROUND DAWN AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
IMPROVEMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
LATE IN THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 261052
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
652 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION.
MUCH COLDER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH GREATER COVERAGE STILL TO THE WEST AND ALIGNED WELL
WITH A BAND OF 850MB FRONTOGENESIS. WITH THAT...NO MAJOR CHANGES
LOOK NEEDED AT THIS POINT AS LATEST MODEL PROGS OF THIS FEATURE
LINE UP WELL WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE
MADE TO BETTER ALIGN TEMPERATURES WITH OBS TRENDS AND ALSO
INCLUDE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO
ZONES EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..

AS THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

THERE IS SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
70 LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
PUSHING OVER 50F AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING A THIN BUT POSITIVE
CAPE PROFILE. SREF MEAN VALUES ARE LOW BUT PRESENT AROUND 50 J/KG
AS FAR NORTH AS PITTSBURGH BUT FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS MORGANTOWN
MEAN VALUES INCREASE TO BETWEEN 300-400. EASTERN COUNTIES WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER IN THE DAY WILL ALSO BE MORE UNSTABLE WITH
MORE TIME TO WARM UP IN THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. EXPECT ANY DEVELOPMENT TO BE CONFINED TO ALONG THE FRONT IN
THE ABSENCE OF ANY OTHER TRIGGER...WITH MAIN POTENTIAL IMPACT
BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH LAPSE RATES RANGING FROM 8-10 C/KM IN
THE LOWER LEVELS AND A FAIR AMOUNT LOW LEVEL SHEAR.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE RESPECTABLE...BETWEEN ONE
AND TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS...AND WITH THE
AREA UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET MAX...INCREASED LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW...AND POTENTIAL FOR MORE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE AROUND A
HALF INCH OF QPF IN GENERAL. THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE
SOUTHERN OHIO BORDER AND UP ACROSS CENTRAL PA...WITH THE GREATEST
QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THIS TRACK...UP TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES DOWN TO BELOW ONE
HALF INCH ACROSS THE SOUTH.

EXPECTING A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRACE ESPECIALLY IN THE
WEST...WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES....FALLING RAPIDLY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRECIP COVERAGE WILL DECREASE QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN AND SUPPORT WAVERS...WITH ANY REMAINING
PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WITH TIME AS SUBZERO 850 MB AIR LAGS THE FRONT A BIT. GIVEN THE
TIME OF YEAR AND RELATIVELY WARM GROUND...NOT EXPECTING MUCH SNOW
ACCUMULATION.

SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE WILL BE SHALLOW
AND LIMITED AND EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THE BOUNDARY
LAYER LOOKS TO BE WARM ENOUGH TO WHERE WE WILL SEE A MIX OR
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN IN MANY AREAS BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW
FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS
H850 THERMAL TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A
MODERATION IN TEMPS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
RISK FOR RAIN OR SNOW AND ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR ON MONDAY. DRY
WEATHER AND A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONDITION DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT WITH THE ADVANCE
OF LOW PRESSURE. MVFR CEILING DEVELOPMENT WILL DEGRADE TO IFR IN
SHOWERS DURING THE AROUND DAWN AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
IMPROVEMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
LATE IN THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260810
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
410 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION.
MUCH COLDER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES A
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

THERE IS SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
70 LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
PUSHING OVER 50F AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING A THIN BUT POSITIVE
CAPE PROFILE. SREF MEAN VALUES ARE LOW BUT PRESENT AROUND 50 J/KG
AS FAR NORTH AS PITTSBURGH BUT FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS MORGANTOWN
MEAN VALUES INCREASE TO BETWEEN 300-400. EASTERN COUNTIES WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER IN THE DAY WILL ALSO BE MORE UNSTABLE WITH
MORE TIME TO WARM UP IN THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. EXPECT ANY DEVELOPMENT TO BE CONFINED TO ALONG THE FRONT IN
THE ABSENCE OF ANY OTHER TRIGGER...WITH MAIN POTENTIAL IMPACT
BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH LAPSE RATES RANGING FROM 8-10 C/KM IN
THE LOWER LEVELS AND A FAIR AMOUNT LOW LEVEL SHEAR.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE RESPECTABLE...BETWEEN ONE
AND TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS...AND WITH THE
AREA UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET MAX...INCREASED LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW...AND POTENTIAL FOR MORE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE AROUND A
HALF INCH OF QPF IN GENERAL. THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE
SOUTHERN OHIO BORDER AND UP ACROSS CENTRAL PA...WITH THE GREATEST
QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THIS TRACK...UP TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES DOWN TO BELOW ONE
HALF INCH ACROSS THE SOUTH.

EXPECTING A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRACE ESPECIALLY IN THE
WEST...WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES....FALLING RAPIDLY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...

PRECIP COVERAGE WILL DECREASE QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN AND SUPPORT WAVERS...WITH ANY REMAINING
PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WITH TIME AS SUBZERO 850 MB AIR LAGS THE FRONT A BIT. GIVEN THE
TIME OF YEAR AND RELATIVELY WARM GROUND...NOT EXPECTING MUCH SNOW
ACCUMULATION.

SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE WILL BE SHALLOW
AND LIMITED AND EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THE BOUNDARY
LAYER LOOKS TO BE WARM ENOUGH TO WHERE WE WILL SEE A MIX OR
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN IN MANY AREAS BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW
FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS
H850 THERMAL TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A
MODERATION IN TEMPS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
RISK FOR RAIN OR SNOW AND ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR ON MONDAY. DRY
WEATHER AND A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONDITION DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT WITH THE ADVANCE
OF LOW PRESSURE. MVFR CEILING DEVELOPMENT WILL DEGRADE TO IFR IN
SHOWERS DURING THE AROUND DAWN AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
IMPROVEMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
LATE IN THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260810
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
410 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION.
MUCH COLDER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES A
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

THERE IS SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
70 LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
PUSHING OVER 50F AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING A THIN BUT POSITIVE
CAPE PROFILE. SREF MEAN VALUES ARE LOW BUT PRESENT AROUND 50 J/KG
AS FAR NORTH AS PITTSBURGH BUT FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS MORGANTOWN
MEAN VALUES INCREASE TO BETWEEN 300-400. EASTERN COUNTIES WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER IN THE DAY WILL ALSO BE MORE UNSTABLE WITH
MORE TIME TO WARM UP IN THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. EXPECT ANY DEVELOPMENT TO BE CONFINED TO ALONG THE FRONT IN
THE ABSENCE OF ANY OTHER TRIGGER...WITH MAIN POTENTIAL IMPACT
BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH LAPSE RATES RANGING FROM 8-10 C/KM IN
THE LOWER LEVELS AND A FAIR AMOUNT LOW LEVEL SHEAR.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE RESPECTABLE...BETWEEN ONE
AND TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS...AND WITH THE
AREA UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET MAX...INCREASED LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW...AND POTENTIAL FOR MORE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE AROUND A
HALF INCH OF QPF IN GENERAL. THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE
SOUTHERN OHIO BORDER AND UP ACROSS CENTRAL PA...WITH THE GREATEST
QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THIS TRACK...UP TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES DOWN TO BELOW ONE
HALF INCH ACROSS THE SOUTH.

EXPECTING A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRACE ESPECIALLY IN THE
WEST...WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES....FALLING RAPIDLY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...

PRECIP COVERAGE WILL DECREASE QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN AND SUPPORT WAVERS...WITH ANY REMAINING
PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WITH TIME AS SUBZERO 850 MB AIR LAGS THE FRONT A BIT. GIVEN THE
TIME OF YEAR AND RELATIVELY WARM GROUND...NOT EXPECTING MUCH SNOW
ACCUMULATION.

SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE WILL BE SHALLOW
AND LIMITED AND EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THE BOUNDARY
LAYER LOOKS TO BE WARM ENOUGH TO WHERE WE WILL SEE A MIX OR
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN IN MANY AREAS BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW
FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS
H850 THERMAL TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A
MODERATION IN TEMPS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
RISK FOR RAIN OR SNOW AND ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR ON MONDAY. DRY
WEATHER AND A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONDITION DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT WITH THE ADVANCE
OF LOW PRESSURE. MVFR CEILING DEVELOPMENT WILL DEGRADE TO IFR IN
SHOWERS DURING THE AROUND DAWN AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
IMPROVEMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
LATE IN THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260810
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
410 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION.
MUCH COLDER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES A
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

THERE IS SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
70 LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
PUSHING OVER 50F AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING A THIN BUT POSITIVE
CAPE PROFILE. SREF MEAN VALUES ARE LOW BUT PRESENT AROUND 50 J/KG
AS FAR NORTH AS PITTSBURGH BUT FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS MORGANTOWN
MEAN VALUES INCREASE TO BETWEEN 300-400. EASTERN COUNTIES WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER IN THE DAY WILL ALSO BE MORE UNSTABLE WITH
MORE TIME TO WARM UP IN THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. EXPECT ANY DEVELOPMENT TO BE CONFINED TO ALONG THE FRONT IN
THE ABSENCE OF ANY OTHER TRIGGER...WITH MAIN POTENTIAL IMPACT
BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH LAPSE RATES RANGING FROM 8-10 C/KM IN
THE LOWER LEVELS AND A FAIR AMOUNT LOW LEVEL SHEAR.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE RESPECTABLE...BETWEEN ONE
AND TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS...AND WITH THE
AREA UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET MAX...INCREASED LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW...AND POTENTIAL FOR MORE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE AROUND A
HALF INCH OF QPF IN GENERAL. THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE
SOUTHERN OHIO BORDER AND UP ACROSS CENTRAL PA...WITH THE GREATEST
QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THIS TRACK...UP TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES DOWN TO BELOW ONE
HALF INCH ACROSS THE SOUTH.

EXPECTING A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRACE ESPECIALLY IN THE
WEST...WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES....FALLING RAPIDLY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...

PRECIP COVERAGE WILL DECREASE QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN AND SUPPORT WAVERS...WITH ANY REMAINING
PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WITH TIME AS SUBZERO 850 MB AIR LAGS THE FRONT A BIT. GIVEN THE
TIME OF YEAR AND RELATIVELY WARM GROUND...NOT EXPECTING MUCH SNOW
ACCUMULATION.

SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE WILL BE SHALLOW
AND LIMITED AND EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THE BOUNDARY
LAYER LOOKS TO BE WARM ENOUGH TO WHERE WE WILL SEE A MIX OR
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN IN MANY AREAS BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW
FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS
H850 THERMAL TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A
MODERATION IN TEMPS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
RISK FOR RAIN OR SNOW AND ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR ON MONDAY. DRY
WEATHER AND A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONDITION DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT WITH THE ADVANCE
OF LOW PRESSURE. MVFR CEILING DEVELOPMENT WILL DEGRADE TO IFR IN
SHOWERS DURING THE AROUND DAWN AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
IMPROVEMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
LATE IN THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







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