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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 051845
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
245 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS ANTICIPATED...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS HAS INCREASED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS ABOUT
500J/KG OF CAPE...WHICH HAS GENERATED A FEW SHORT-LIVED
THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTH OF PIT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS TO SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH POPS
DIMINISHING TO THE NORTH AND WEST AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST.

TONIGHT THE LARGE UPPER LOW WILL SETTLE NEAR THE DELMARVA COAST.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS BUT THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES WILL BE SITUATED SOUTH
AND EAST OF I-70/I-79 WHERE THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND
MOISTURE IS PRESENT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A CHANGE IN LOW TEMPS
OVERNIGHT...WITH CLOUD COVER HOLDING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. OUR
WESTERNMOST ZONES MAY SCATTER OR CLEAR OUT TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE
BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH FRIDAY WHICH SUPPORTS KEEPING
LIKELY POPS IN THE RIDGES AND HIGH CHANCE POPS BACK TOWARD
PITTSBURGH...AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES ROTATE AROUND THE FILLING
UPPER LOW. AGAIN...THINK COVERAGE WILL INCREASE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...SO POPS ARE HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON. 850HPA
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM AS THE LOW FILLS SO TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY MAY BE JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO BE ABSORBED
BACK INTO THE UPPER PATTERN AND PUSHED EAST AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS
OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE POPS
FOR A BRIEF TIME SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE THE APPROACH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS IS RATHER GOOD WHICH SUPPORTS
LIKELY POPS SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURDAYS TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST
CLOSER TO OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WARM 850HPA
TEMPS RETURN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE LARGELY BE DRY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
TRANSITIONS OVER THE AREA. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE MONDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT...WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR
UNTIL THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES WEDNESDAY. WITH INCREASED
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW VFR / HIGH MVFR AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SLOWLY MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. A HANDFUL OF STORMS MAY PRODUCE A COUPLE
LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERSISTENT
LOW PRESSURE...AND AGAIN WITH A SAT NIGHT COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 051845
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
245 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS ANTICIPATED...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS HAS INCREASED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS ABOUT
500J/KG OF CAPE...WHICH HAS GENERATED A FEW SHORT-LIVED
THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTH OF PIT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS TO SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH POPS
DIMINISHING TO THE NORTH AND WEST AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST.

TONIGHT THE LARGE UPPER LOW WILL SETTLE NEAR THE DELMARVA COAST.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS BUT THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES WILL BE SITUATED SOUTH
AND EAST OF I-70/I-79 WHERE THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND
MOISTURE IS PRESENT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A CHANGE IN LOW TEMPS
OVERNIGHT...WITH CLOUD COVER HOLDING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. OUR
WESTERNMOST ZONES MAY SCATTER OR CLEAR OUT TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE
BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH FRIDAY WHICH SUPPORTS KEEPING
LIKELY POPS IN THE RIDGES AND HIGH CHANCE POPS BACK TOWARD
PITTSBURGH...AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES ROTATE AROUND THE FILLING
UPPER LOW. AGAIN...THINK COVERAGE WILL INCREASE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...SO POPS ARE HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON. 850HPA
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM AS THE LOW FILLS SO TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY MAY BE JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO BE ABSORBED
BACK INTO THE UPPER PATTERN AND PUSHED EAST AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS
OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE POPS
FOR A BRIEF TIME SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE THE APPROACH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS IS RATHER GOOD WHICH SUPPORTS
LIKELY POPS SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURDAYS TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST
CLOSER TO OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WARM 850HPA
TEMPS RETURN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE LARGELY BE DRY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
TRANSITIONS OVER THE AREA. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE MONDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT...WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR
UNTIL THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES WEDNESDAY. WITH INCREASED
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW VFR / HIGH MVFR AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SLOWLY MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. A HANDFUL OF STORMS MAY PRODUCE A COUPLE
LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERSISTENT
LOW PRESSURE...AND AGAIN WITH A SAT NIGHT COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 051806
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
206 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE HAS DIMINISHED...PER THE LATEST
RADAR DATA...SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND SUPPORT FROM A SHORTWAVE
DROPPING INTO THE LARGE UPPER LOW AS IT SINKS TOWARD THE CAROLINAS.

SOME DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW HAS ALLOWED FOR BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS EARLY...WHICH MAY SUPPORT POCKETS OF WARMER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...GENERALLY STAYED WITH HIGHS NEAR 60
DEGREES WITH PREDOMINANTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PRECIPITATION
FORECAST.

TONIGHT THE LARGE UPPER LOW WILL SETTLE NEAR THE DELMARVA COAST.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS BUT THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES WILL BE SITUATED SOUTH
AND EAST OF I-70/I-79 WHERE THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND
MOISTURE IS PRESENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH FRIDAY KEEPING LIKELY POPS IN
THE RIDGES WITH CHANCE POPS BACK TO PITTSBURGH...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN OHIO. CLOSED LOW OPENS AND
SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS IN THE RIDGES.
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL BRING A
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
SHOWER CHANCES LATE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BELOW AVERAGE
THROUGH FRIDAY BUT WARM TO NEAR NORMAL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE LARGELY BE DRY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
TRANSITIONS OVER THE AREA. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE MONDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT...WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR
UNTIL THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES WEDNESDAY. WITH INCREASED
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW VFR / HIGH MVFR AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SLOWLY MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. A HANDFUL OF STORMS MAY PRODUCE A COUPLE
LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERSISTENT
LOW PRESSURE...AND AGAIN WITH A SAT NIGHT COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 051638
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1238 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE HAS DIMINISHED...PER THE LATEST
RADAR DATA...SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND SUPPORT FROM A SHORTWAVE
DROPPING INTO THE LARGE UPPER LOW AS IT SINKS TOWARD THE CAROLINAS.

SOME DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW HAS ALLOWED FOR BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS EARLY...WHICH MAY SUPPORT POCKETS OF WARMER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...GENERALLY STAYED WITH HIGHS NEAR 60
DEGREES WITH PREDOMINANTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PRECIPITATION
FORECAST.

TONIGHT THE LARGE UPPER LOW WILL SETTLE NEAR THE DELMARVA COAST.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS BUT THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES WILL BE SITUATED SOUTH
AND EAST OF I-70/I-79 WHERE THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND
MOISTURE IS PRESENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH FRIDAY KEEPING LIKELY POPS IN
THE RIDGES WITH CHANCE POPS BACK TO PITTSBURGH...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN OHIO. CLOSED LOW OPENS AND
SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS IN THE RIDGES.
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL BRING A
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
SHOWER CHANCES LATE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BELOW AVERAGE
THROUGH FRIDAY BUT WARM TO NEAR NORMAL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING MIDWEST TROF. SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
SHOULD RESULT IN PERIODIC SHOWER CHCS THRU THE PERIOD...WITH A FEW
TSTMS PSBL BY MIDWEEK WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
PROGGED. TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL LVLS SHOULD INCREASE TO A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE AVG BY MIDWEEK. THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE...WITH SOME POP
ADJUSTMENTS...WAS USED THRU THE PERIOD TO SMOOTH OUT OPERATIONAL
MODEL DIFFERENCES/UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW VFR / HIGH MVFR AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SLOWLY MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. A HANDFUL OF STORMS MAY PRODUCE A COUPLE
LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERSISTENT
LOW PRESSURE...AND AGAIN WITH A SAT NIGHT COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 051449
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1049 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE HAS DIMINISHED...PER THE LATEST
RADAR DATA...SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND SUPPORT FROM A SHORTWAVE
DROPPING INTO THE LARGE UPPER LOW AS IT SINKS TOWARD THE CAROLINAS.

SOME DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW HAS ALLOWED FOR BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS EARLY...WHICH MAY SUPPORT POCKETS OF WARMER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...GENERALLY STAYED WITH HIGHS NEAR 60
DEGREES WITH PREDOMINANTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PRECIPITATION
FORECAST.

TONIGHT THE LARGE UPPER LOW WILL SETTLE NEAR THE DELMARVA COAST.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS BUT THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES WILL BE SITUATED SOUTH
AND EAST OF I-70/I-79 WHERE THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND
MOISTURE IS PRESENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH FRIDAY KEEPING LIKELY POPS IN
THE RIDGES WITH CHANCE POPS BACK TO PITTSBURGH...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN OHIO. CLOSED LOW OPENS AND
SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS IN THE RIDGES.
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL BRING A
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
SHOWER CHANCES LATE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BELOW AVERAGE
THROUGH FRIDAY BUT WARM TO NEAR NORMAL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING MIDWEST TROF. SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
SHOULD RESULT IN PERIODIC SHOWER CHCS THRU THE PERIOD...WITH A FEW
TSTMS PSBL BY MIDWEEK WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
PROGGED. TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL LVLS SHOULD INCREASE TO A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE AVG BY MIDWEEK. THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE...WITH SOME POP
ADJUSTMENTS...WAS USED THRU THE PERIOD TO SMOOTH OUT OPERATIONAL
MODEL DIFFERENCES/UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SWD MOVG UPR LVL LOW OVER NRN KY/SRN OH IS EXPECTED TO RESULT
IN AREAS OF SHOWERS ACRS THE RGN TODAY. MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS PATTERN TODAY. A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR IS PSBL
THIS EVE BEFORE LOW LVL MOISTURE RESULTS IN MVFR CIGS OVRNGT.

.OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH FRI WITH PERSISTENT LOW
PRESSURE...AND AGAIN WITH A SAT NGT COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 051449
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1049 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE HAS DIMINISHED...PER THE LATEST
RADAR DATA...SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND SUPPORT FROM A SHORTWAVE
DROPPING INTO THE LARGE UPPER LOW AS IT SINKS TOWARD THE CAROLINAS.

SOME DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW HAS ALLOWED FOR BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS EARLY...WHICH MAY SUPPORT POCKETS OF WARMER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...GENERALLY STAYED WITH HIGHS NEAR 60
DEGREES WITH PREDOMINANTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PRECIPITATION
FORECAST.

TONIGHT THE LARGE UPPER LOW WILL SETTLE NEAR THE DELMARVA COAST.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS BUT THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES WILL BE SITUATED SOUTH
AND EAST OF I-70/I-79 WHERE THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND
MOISTURE IS PRESENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH FRIDAY KEEPING LIKELY POPS IN
THE RIDGES WITH CHANCE POPS BACK TO PITTSBURGH...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN OHIO. CLOSED LOW OPENS AND
SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS IN THE RIDGES.
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL BRING A
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
SHOWER CHANCES LATE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BELOW AVERAGE
THROUGH FRIDAY BUT WARM TO NEAR NORMAL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING MIDWEST TROF. SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
SHOULD RESULT IN PERIODIC SHOWER CHCS THRU THE PERIOD...WITH A FEW
TSTMS PSBL BY MIDWEEK WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
PROGGED. TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL LVLS SHOULD INCREASE TO A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE AVG BY MIDWEEK. THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE...WITH SOME POP
ADJUSTMENTS...WAS USED THRU THE PERIOD TO SMOOTH OUT OPERATIONAL
MODEL DIFFERENCES/UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SWD MOVG UPR LVL LOW OVER NRN KY/SRN OH IS EXPECTED TO RESULT
IN AREAS OF SHOWERS ACRS THE RGN TODAY. MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS PATTERN TODAY. A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR IS PSBL
THIS EVE BEFORE LOW LVL MOISTURE RESULTS IN MVFR CIGS OVRNGT.

.OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH FRI WITH PERSISTENT LOW
PRESSURE...AND AGAIN WITH A SAT NGT COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 051025
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
625 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON RADAR AND NEAR TERM
MODEL DATA. PREVIOUS...CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER KY WILL WOBBLE
EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH BANDS OF SHOWERS ROTATING ACROSS
THE REGION ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE SYSTEM INTO THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
THE SEASONAL AVERAGE. BY TONIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS TO TRANSITION
TO THE CAROLINAS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED EAST...WITH
HIGHEST POPS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH FRIDAY KEEPING LIKELY POPS IN
THE RIDGES WITH CHANCE POPS BACK TO PITTSBURGH...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN OHIO. CLOSED LOW OPENS AND
SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS IN THE RIDGES.
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL BRING A
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
SHOWER CHANCES LATE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BELOW AVERAGE
THROUGH FRIDAY BUT WARM TO NEAR NORMAL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING MIDWEST TROF. SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
SHOULD RESULT IN PERIODIC SHOWER CHCS THRU THE PERIOD...WITH A FEW
TSTMS PSBL BY MIDWEEK WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
PROGGED. TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL LVLS SHOULD INCREASE TO A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE AVG BY MIDWEEK. THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE...WITH SOME POP
ADJUSTMENTS...WAS USED THRU THE PERIOD TO SMOOTH OUT OPERATIONAL
MODEL DIFFERENCES/UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SWD MOVG UPR LVL LOW OVER NRN KY/SRN OH IS EXPECTED TO RESULT
IN AREAS OF SHOWERS ACRS THE RGN TODAY. MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS PATTERN TODAY. A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR IS PSBL
THIS EVE BEFORE LOW LVL MOISTURE RESULTS IN MVFR CIGS OVRNGT.

.OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH FRI WITH PERSISTENT LOW
PRESSURE...AND AGAIN WITH A SAT NGT COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 050643
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
243 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER KY WILL WOBBLE EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH BANDS OF SHOWERS ROTATING ACROSS THE REGION ON THE
FRONT SIDE OF THE SYSTEM INTO THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE. BY TONIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO THE
CAROLINAS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED EAST...WITH HIGHEST POPS
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH FRIDAY KEEPING LIKELY POPS IN
THE RIDGES WITH CHANCE POPS BACK TO PITTSBURGH...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN OHIO. CLOSED LOW OPENS AND
SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS IN THE RIDGES.
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL BRING A
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
SHOWER CHANCES LATE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BELOW AVERAGE
THROUGH FRIDAY BUT WARM TO NEAR NORMAL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING MIDWEST TROF. SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
SHOULD RESULT IN PERIODIC SHOWER CHCS THRU THE PERIOD...WITH A FEW
TSTMS PSBL BY MIDWEEK WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
PROGGED. TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL LVLS SHOULD INCREASE TO A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE AVG BY MIDWEEK. THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE...WITH SOME POP
ADJUSTMENTS...WAS USED THRU THE PERIOD TO SMOOTH OUT OPERATIONAL
MODEL DIFFERENCES/UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SWD MOVG UPR LVL LOW OVER OH IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AREAS OF
SHOWERS ACRS THE RGN THRU TODAY. MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH LOCAL
IFR...ARE EXPECTED IN THESE SHOWERS...WITH VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY
PCPN.

.OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH FRI WITH PERSISTENT LOW
PRESSURE...AND AGAIN WITH A SAT NGT COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 050643
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
243 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER KY WILL WOBBLE EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH BANDS OF SHOWERS ROTATING ACROSS THE REGION ON THE
FRONT SIDE OF THE SYSTEM INTO THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE. BY TONIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO THE
CAROLINAS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED EAST...WITH HIGHEST POPS
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH FRIDAY KEEPING LIKELY POPS IN
THE RIDGES WITH CHANCE POPS BACK TO PITTSBURGH...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN OHIO. CLOSED LOW OPENS AND
SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS IN THE RIDGES.
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL BRING A
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
SHOWER CHANCES LATE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BELOW AVERAGE
THROUGH FRIDAY BUT WARM TO NEAR NORMAL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING MIDWEST TROF. SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
SHOULD RESULT IN PERIODIC SHOWER CHCS THRU THE PERIOD...WITH A FEW
TSTMS PSBL BY MIDWEEK WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
PROGGED. TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL LVLS SHOULD INCREASE TO A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE AVG BY MIDWEEK. THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE...WITH SOME POP
ADJUSTMENTS...WAS USED THRU THE PERIOD TO SMOOTH OUT OPERATIONAL
MODEL DIFFERENCES/UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SWD MOVG UPR LVL LOW OVER OH IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AREAS OF
SHOWERS ACRS THE RGN THRU TODAY. MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH LOCAL
IFR...ARE EXPECTED IN THESE SHOWERS...WITH VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY
PCPN.

.OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH FRI WITH PERSISTENT LOW
PRESSURE...AND AGAIN WITH A SAT NGT COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 050519
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
119 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR
CHANGES. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER OVERNIGHT. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS
OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE
DEFORMATION ZONE TAKES ON MORE OF A NW/SE ORIENTATION WITH TIME.

UPPER LOW CENTER ROTATES ACROSS KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE TOWARDS
NORTH CAROLINA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE H5 CLOSED LOW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRI NIGHT...WITH VORTICITY LOBES
CIRCUMNAVIGATING THE SYSTEM. THESE WAVES WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS IN
THE SERN ZONES AND ESPECIALLY IN THE RIDGES ON THU NIGHT...WHERE
MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.

BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON SATURDAY WILL HELP DIVERT THE UPPER
LOW AND BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION FOR SAT AFTERNOON. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL SHUNT THE UPPER RIDGE SEWD...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CONSEQUENTLY INCREASING SAT NIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PRECIPITATION SAT NIGHT WILL EXIT QUICKLY BY SUN MORNING IN THE
WAKE OF THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH LITTLE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON SUN...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE
NRN SIDE OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THUS...MAXIMA WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY-BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW-MID 60S.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAD BEEN LOCATED IN THE SWRN
CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL EJECT SLOWLY INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE
OVER THE ERN CONUS AND ATTENDANT INCREASE IN WARM AIR BEGINNING ON
MON. NEAR-CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS WERE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST DURING
THIS TIME AS THE FCST AREA WILL RESIDE IN THE MOIST WARM SECTOR.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS TIMING DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MEDIUM-RANGE
MODELS...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE
WED/THU AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE
REGION. GIVEN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES...THIS COMBINATION OF
FEATURES WARRANTS GENERAL HEIGHTENED POPS AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER DURING ITS TENURE IN THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SWD MOVG UPR LVL LOW OVER OH IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AREAS OF
SHOWERS ACRS THE RGN THRU TODAY. MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH LOCAL
IFR...ARE EXPECTED IN THESE SHOWERS...WITH VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY
PCPN.

.OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH FRI WITH PERSISTENT LOW
PRESSURE...AND AGAIN WITH A SAT NGT COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 050420
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1220 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR
CHANGES. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER OVERNIGHT. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS
OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE
DEFORMATION ZONE TAKES ON MORE OF A NW/SE ORIENTATION WITH TIME.

UPPER LOW CENTER ROTATES ACROSS KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE TOWARDS
NORTH CAROLINA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE H5 CLOSED LOW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRI NIGHT...WITH VORTICITY LOBES
CIRCUMNAVIGATING THE SYSTEM. THESE WAVES WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS IN
THE SERN ZONES AND ESPECIALLY IN THE RIDGES ON THU NIGHT...WHERE
MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.

BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON SATURDAY WILL HELP DIVERT THE UPPER
LOW AND BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION FOR SAT AFTERNOON. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL SHUNT THE UPPER RIDGE SEWD...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CONSEQUENTLY INCREASING SAT NIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PRECIPITATION SAT NIGHT WILL EXIT QUICKLY BY SUN MORNING IN THE
WAKE OF THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH LITTLE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON SUN...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE
NRN SIDE OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THUS...MAXIMA WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY-BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW-MID 60S.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAD BEEN LOCATED IN THE SWRN
CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL EJECT SLOWLY INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE
OVER THE ERN CONUS AND ATTENDANT INCREASE IN WARM AIR BEGINNING ON
MON. NEAR-CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS WERE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST DURING
THIS TIME AS THE FCST AREA WILL RESIDE IN THE MOIST WARM SECTOR.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS TIMING DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MEDIUM-RANGE
MODELS...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE
WED/THU AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE
REGION. GIVEN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES...THIS COMBINATION OF
FEATURES WARRANTS GENERAL HEIGHTENED POPS AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER DURING ITS TENURE IN THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH FOCUS ALONG AN APPROACHING FRONT AND SHORTWAVE. LOW
PRESSURE DIVING SOUTHWARD WILL SLOWLY PIVOT THIS AREA OF SHOWERS
OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. MAINLY MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT BUT SOME IFR MAY BE POSSIBLE
TOWARD SUNRISE. AT THIS TIME...HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON THE
PREVAILING IFR FORECAST...BUT WILL WATCH UPSTREAM TRENDS TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE EARLY TOMORROW BUT DIURNAL SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO FLOURISH AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH FRI WITH PERSISTENT LOW
PRESSURE...AND AGAIN WITH A COLD FRONT ON SAT NIGHT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 050420
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1220 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR
CHANGES. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER OVERNIGHT. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS
OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE
DEFORMATION ZONE TAKES ON MORE OF A NW/SE ORIENTATION WITH TIME.

UPPER LOW CENTER ROTATES ACROSS KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE TOWARDS
NORTH CAROLINA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE H5 CLOSED LOW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRI NIGHT...WITH VORTICITY LOBES
CIRCUMNAVIGATING THE SYSTEM. THESE WAVES WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS IN
THE SERN ZONES AND ESPECIALLY IN THE RIDGES ON THU NIGHT...WHERE
MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.

BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON SATURDAY WILL HELP DIVERT THE UPPER
LOW AND BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION FOR SAT AFTERNOON. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL SHUNT THE UPPER RIDGE SEWD...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CONSEQUENTLY INCREASING SAT NIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PRECIPITATION SAT NIGHT WILL EXIT QUICKLY BY SUN MORNING IN THE
WAKE OF THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH LITTLE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON SUN...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE
NRN SIDE OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THUS...MAXIMA WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY-BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW-MID 60S.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAD BEEN LOCATED IN THE SWRN
CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL EJECT SLOWLY INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE
OVER THE ERN CONUS AND ATTENDANT INCREASE IN WARM AIR BEGINNING ON
MON. NEAR-CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS WERE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST DURING
THIS TIME AS THE FCST AREA WILL RESIDE IN THE MOIST WARM SECTOR.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS TIMING DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MEDIUM-RANGE
MODELS...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE
WED/THU AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE
REGION. GIVEN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES...THIS COMBINATION OF
FEATURES WARRANTS GENERAL HEIGHTENED POPS AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER DURING ITS TENURE IN THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH FOCUS ALONG AN APPROACHING FRONT AND SHORTWAVE. LOW
PRESSURE DIVING SOUTHWARD WILL SLOWLY PIVOT THIS AREA OF SHOWERS
OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. MAINLY MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT BUT SOME IFR MAY BE POSSIBLE
TOWARD SUNRISE. AT THIS TIME...HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON THE
PREVAILING IFR FORECAST...BUT WILL WATCH UPSTREAM TRENDS TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE EARLY TOMORROW BUT DIURNAL SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO FLOURISH AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH FRI WITH PERSISTENT LOW
PRESSURE...AND AGAIN WITH A COLD FRONT ON SAT NIGHT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 050146
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
946 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
OVERNIGHT. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS OVERNIGHT...BUT
STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE
TAKES ON MORE OF A NW/SE ORIENTATION WITH TIME. THUNDER THREAT IS
OVER FOR TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HIGHER QPF WILL
FALL SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH. REDUCED MIN TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO
OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO NEAR TERM GUIDANCE LIKE THE LAMP.

UPPER LOW CENTER ROTATES ACROSS KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE TOWARDS
NORTH CAROLINA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE.  GOOD MOISTURE FEED SETS UP INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THINK HEAVIEST RAIN TOTALS WILL
FALL SOUTH OF CWA...BUT WE MAY NEED TO MONITOR RAIN TOTALS IN LOW
FFG PATCH IN MARION/MONONGALIA COUNTIES. LITTLE CHANGE TO THURSDAY
FORECAST FOR NOW.  CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE H5 CLOSED LOW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRI NIGHT...WITH VORTICITY LOBES
CIRCUMNAVIGATING THE SYSTEM. THESE WAVES WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS IN
THE SERN ZONES AND ESPECIALLY IN THE RIDGES ON THU NIGHT...WHERE
MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.

BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON SATURDAY WILL HELP DIVERT THE UPPER
LOW AND BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION FOR SAT AFTERNOON. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL SHUNT THE UPPER RIDGE SEWD...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CONSEQUENTLY INCREASING SAT NIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PRECIPITATION SAT NIGHT WILL EXIT QUICKLY BY SUN MORNING IN THE
WAKE OF THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH LITTLE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON SUN...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE
NRN SIDE OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THUS...MAXIMA WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY-BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW-MID 60S.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAD BEEN LOCATED IN THE SWRN
CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL EJECT SLOWLY INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE
OVER THE ERN CONUS AND ATTENDANT INCREASE IN WARM AIR BEGINNING ON
MON. NEAR-CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS WERE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST DURING
THIS TIME AS THE FCST AREA WILL RESIDE IN THE MOIST WARM SECTOR.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS TIMING DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MEDIUM-RANGE
MODELS...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE
WED/THU AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE
REGION. GIVEN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES...THIS COMBINATION OF
FEATURES WARRANTS GENERAL HEIGHTENED POPS AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER DURING ITS TENURE IN THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH FOCUS ALONG AN APPROACHING FRONT AND SHORTWAVE. LOW
PRESSURE DIVING SOUTHWARD WILL SLOWLY PIVOT THIS AREA OF SHOWERS
OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. MAINLY MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT BUT SOME IFR MAY BE POSSIBLE
TOWARD SUNRISE. AT THIS TIME...HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON THE
PREVAILING IFR FORECAST...BUT WILL WATCH UPSTREAM TRENDS TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE EARLY TOMORROW BUT DIURNAL SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO FLOURISH AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH FRI WITH PERSISTENT LOW
PRESSURE...AND AGAIN WITH A COLD FRONT ON SAT NIGHT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 050103
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
903 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MADE SOME CHANGES TO POPS BASED ON RADAR AND NEAR-TERM MODEL
TRENDS. STILL EXPECT DEFORMATION ZONE TO TAKE ON MORE OF A
NORTHWEST/SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION WITH TIME THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTH. FOCUS WILL BE ON THE
SOUTHEAST CWA AFTER 06Z. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON RAINFALL TOTALS IN
THIS AREA AS FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY LOW...PARTICULARLY
IN MARION/MONONGALIA COUNTIES. STILL THINK RAINFALL RATES WILL NOT
BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS. WILL CONTINUE
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION INTO THIS EVENING AS WELL. CL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR THURSDAY...

THURSDAY WILL SEE CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LOW
CENTER SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE H5 CLOSED LOW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRI NIGHT...WITH VORTICITY LOBES
CIRCUMNAVIGATING THE SYSTEM. THESE WAVES WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS IN
THE SERN ZONES AND ESPECIALLY IN THE RIDGES ON THU NIGHT...WHERE
MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.

BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON SATURDAY WILL HELP DIVERT THE UPPER
LOW AND BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION FOR SAT AFTERNOON. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL SHUNT THE UPPER RIDGE SEWD...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CONSEQUENTLY INCREASING SAT NIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PRECIPITATION SAT NIGHT WILL EXIT QUICKLY BY SUN MORNING IN THE
WAKE OF THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH LITTLE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON SUN...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE
NRN SIDE OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THUS...MAXIMA WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY-BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW-MID 60S.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAD BEEN LOCATED IN THE SWRN
CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL EJECT SLOWLY INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE
OVER THE ERN CONUS AND ATTENDANT INCREASE IN WARM AIR BEGINNING ON
MON. NEAR-CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS WERE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST DURING
THIS TIME AS THE FCST AREA WILL RESIDE IN THE MOIST WARM SECTOR.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS TIMING DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MEDIUM-RANGE
MODELS...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE
WED/THU AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE
REGION. GIVEN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES...THIS COMBINATION OF
FEATURES WARRANTS GENERAL HEIGHTENED POPS AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER DURING ITS TENURE IN THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH FOCUS ALONG AN APPROACHING FRONT AND SHORTWAVE. LOW
PRESSURE DIVING SOUTHWARD WILL SLOWLY PIVOT THIS AREA OF SHOWERS
OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. MAINLY MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT BUT SOME IFR MAY BE POSSIBLE
TOWARD SUNRISE. AT THIS TIME...HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON THE
PREVAILING IFR FORECAST...BUT WILL WATCH UPSTREAM TRENDS TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE EARLY TOMORROW BUT DIURNAL SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO FLOURISH AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH FRI WITH PERSISTENT LOW
PRESSURE...AND AGAIN WITH A COLD FRONT ON SAT NIGHT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 042217
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
617 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MADE SOME CHANGES TO POPS BASED ON RADAR AND NEAR-TERM MODEL
TRENDS. STILL EXPECT DEFORMATION ZONE TO TAKE ON MORE OF A
NORTHWEST/SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION WITH TIME THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTH. FOCUS WILL BE ON THE
SOUTHEAST CWA AFTER 06Z. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON RAINFALL TOTALS IN
THIS AREA AS FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY LOW...PARTICULARLY
IN MARION/MONONGALIA COUNTIES. STILL THINK RAINFALL RATES WILL NOT
BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS. WILL CONTINUE
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION INTO THIS EVENING AS WELL. CL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR THURSDAY...

THURSDAY WILL SEE CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LOW
CENTER SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE H5 CLOSED LOW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRI NIGHT...WITH VORTICITY LOBES
CIRCUMNAVIGATING THE SYSTEM. THESE WAVES WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS IN
THE SERN ZONES AND ESPECIALLY IN THE RIDGES ON THU NIGHT...WHERE
MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.

BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON SATURDAY WILL HELP DIVERT THE UPPER
LOW AND BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION FOR SAT AFTERNOON. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL SHUNT THE UPPER RIDGE SEWD...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CONSEQUENTLY INCREASING SAT NIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PRECIPITATION SAT NIGHT WILL EXIT QUICKLY BY SUN MORNING IN THE
WAKE OF THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH LITTLE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON SUN...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE
NRN SIDE OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THUS...MAXIMA WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY-BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW-MID 60S.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAD BEEN LOCATED IN THE SWRN
CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL EJECT SLOWLY INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE
OVER THE ERN CONUS AND ATTENDANT INCREASE IN WARM AIR BEGINNING ON
MON. NEAR-CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS WERE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST DURING
THIS TIME AS THE FCST AREA WILL RESIDE IN THE MOIST WARM SECTOR.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS TIMING DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MEDIUM-RANGE
MODELS...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE
WED/THU AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE
REGION. GIVEN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES...THIS COMBINATION OF
FEATURES WARRANTS GENERAL HEIGHTENED POPS AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER DURING ITS TENURE IN THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNTIL CONDITIONS DETERIORATE THROUGH
THE EVENING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION.
MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR WILL THEN BE LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THU/FRI WITH PERSISTENT LOW
PRESSURE...AND AGAIN WITH A COLD FRONT ON SAT NIGHT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 041951
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
351 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN TO THE WEST. ALTHOUGH THERE IS VERY
LIMITED CAPE...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH A LOW
FREEZING LEVEL WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED LIGHTNING AND PEA-SIZED
HAIL OUT OF SOME OF THE LOW-TOPPED CELLS. THERE IS NO RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTH AND THE
FORECAST AREA SITS UNDER THE DEFORMATION ZONE. THURSDAY WILL SEE
CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER SLOWLY MOVES
EAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE H5 CLOSED LOW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRI NIGHT...WITH VORTICITY LOBES
CIRCUMNAVIGATING THE SYSTEM. THESE WAVES WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS IN
THE SERN ZONES AND ESPECIALLY IN THE RIDGES ON THU NIGHT...WHERE
MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.

BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON SATURDAY WILL HELP DIVERT THE UPPER
LOW AND BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION FOR SAT AFTERNOON. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL SHUNT THE UPPER RIDGE SEWD...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CONSEQUENTLY INCREASING SAT NIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PRECIPITATION SAT NIGHT WILL EXIT QUICKLY BY SUN MORNING IN THE
WAKE OF THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH LITTLE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON SUN...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE
NRN SIDE OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THUS...MAXIMA WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY-BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW-MID 60S.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAD BEEN LOCATED IN THE SWRN
CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL EJECT SLOWLY INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE
OVER THE ERN CONUS AND ATTENDANT INCREASE IN WARM AIR BEGINNING ON
MON. NEAR-CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS WERE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST DURING
THIS TIME AS THE FCST AREA WILL RESIDE IN THE MOIST WARM SECTOR.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS TIMING DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MEDIUM-RANGE
MODELS...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE
WED/THU AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE
REGION. GIVEN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES...THIS COMBINATION OF
FEATURES WARRANTS GENERAL HEIGHTENED POPS AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER DURING ITS TENURE IN THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNTIL CONDITIONS DETERIORATE THROUGH
THE EVENING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION.
MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR WILL THEN BE LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THU/FRI WITH PERSISTENT LOW
PRESSURE...AND AGAIN WITH A COLD FRONT ON SAT NIGHT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

MK/KRAMAR





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 041850
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
250 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. MAINLY DRY FRIDAY BEFORE SHOWER CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN TO THE WEST. ALTHOUGH THERE IS VERY
LIMITED CAPE...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH A LOW
FREEZING LEVEL WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED LIGHTNING AND PEA-SIZED
HAIL OUT OF SOME OF THE LOW-TOPPED CELLS. THERE IS NO RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE UPPER LOW LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTH AND
THE FORECAST AREA SITS UNDER THE DEFORMATION ZONE. THURSDAY WILL
SEE CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER SLOWLY
MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COOL MID LEVEL CLOSED SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND CLOSED
LOW COMBINED WITH COLD POOL ALOFT WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY LOW MAY BECOME BECOME
MORE ELONGATED NEAR THE COAST...ALTHOUGH NEWEST LONGER RANGE
MODELS DISAGREE ON PLACEMENT AND SPEED OF LOW LIFTING OUT. HAVE
KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS INTO THE RIDGES FRIDAY WITH A DRYING TREND
ELSEWHERE. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT TO SHUNT LOW TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING BACK SHOWER CHANCES SATURDAY
WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT PUSHING TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPR TROF AND SFC BOUNDARY PASSAGE IS PROGGED ERLY IN THE PERIOD
WITH THE BEST CHCS FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...BUILDING RIDGING
SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER UNTIL AN APPROACHING UPR TROF
ADVANCES OUT OF THE MID WEST BY MID WEEK. TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL LVLS
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE AVG BY MID WEEK. THE SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE...WITH DOWNWARD MID WEEK POP ADJUSTMENT...WAS USED FOR
THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNTIL CONDITIONS DETERIORATE THROUGH
THE EVENING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION.
MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR WILL THEN BE LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THU/FRI WITH PERSISTENT LOW
PRESSURE...AND AGAIN WITH A SAT NGT COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 041850
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
250 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. MAINLY DRY FRIDAY BEFORE SHOWER CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN TO THE WEST. ALTHOUGH THERE IS VERY
LIMITED CAPE...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH A LOW
FREEZING LEVEL WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED LIGHTNING AND PEA-SIZED
HAIL OUT OF SOME OF THE LOW-TOPPED CELLS. THERE IS NO RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE UPPER LOW LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTH AND
THE FORECAST AREA SITS UNDER THE DEFORMATION ZONE. THURSDAY WILL
SEE CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER SLOWLY
MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COOL MID LEVEL CLOSED SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND CLOSED
LOW COMBINED WITH COLD POOL ALOFT WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY LOW MAY BECOME BECOME
MORE ELONGATED NEAR THE COAST...ALTHOUGH NEWEST LONGER RANGE
MODELS DISAGREE ON PLACEMENT AND SPEED OF LOW LIFTING OUT. HAVE
KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS INTO THE RIDGES FRIDAY WITH A DRYING TREND
ELSEWHERE. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT TO SHUNT LOW TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING BACK SHOWER CHANCES SATURDAY
WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT PUSHING TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPR TROF AND SFC BOUNDARY PASSAGE IS PROGGED ERLY IN THE PERIOD
WITH THE BEST CHCS FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...BUILDING RIDGING
SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER UNTIL AN APPROACHING UPR TROF
ADVANCES OUT OF THE MID WEST BY MID WEEK. TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL LVLS
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE AVG BY MID WEEK. THE SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE...WITH DOWNWARD MID WEEK POP ADJUSTMENT...WAS USED FOR
THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNTIL CONDITIONS DETERIORATE THROUGH
THE EVENING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION.
MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR WILL THEN BE LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THU/FRI WITH PERSISTENT LOW
PRESSURE...AND AGAIN WITH A SAT NGT COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 041309
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
909 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. MAINLY DRY FRIDAY BEFORE SHOWER CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SEVERAL MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED THIS MORNING BUT OVERALL THE
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. HOURLY TEMPERATURES WERE
ADJUSTED DOWN SLIGHTLY TO BETTER ALIGN WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS AND MENTION OF THUNDER WAS REMOVED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS
LATEST GUIDANCE PROGS MINIMAL INSTABILITY AND 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A
WEAK CAP AT 600MB. IF DEWPOINTS STAY STEADY OR RISE SLIGHTLY AND
TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL MORE THAN FORECAST THEN THERE IS A CHANCE
OF CONVECTION BUT AT THIS TIME THAT LOOKS UNLIKELY. LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW DEEPENING TO OUR WEST...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTH AND THE FORECAST
AREA SITS UNDER THE DEFORMATION ZONE. THIS SETUP WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COOL MID LEVEL CLOSED SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND CLOSED
LOW COMBINED WITH COLD POOL ALOFT WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY LOW MAY BECOME BECOME
MORE ELONGATED NEAR THE COAST...ALTHOUGH NEWEST LONGER RANGE
MODELS DISAGREE ON PLACEMENT AND SPEED OF LOW LIFTING OUT. HAVE
KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS INTO THE RIDGES FRIDAY WITH A DRYING TREND
ELSEWHERE. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT TO SHUNT LOW TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING BACK SHOWER CHANCES SATURDAY
WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT PUSHING TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPR TROF AND SFC BOUNDARY PASSAGE IS PROGGED ERLY IN THE PERIOD
WITH THE BEST CHCS FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...BUILDING RIDGING
SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER UNTIL AN APPROACHING UPR TROF
ADVANCES OUT OF THE MID WEST BY MID WEEK. TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL LVLS
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE AVG BY MID WEEK. THE SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE...WITH DOWNWARD MID WEEK POP ADJUSTMENT...WAS USED FOR
THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OTHER THAN ISOLATED ERLY MRNG FOG...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THRU THE AFTN. APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SHOULD RESULT IN SCT LGT
SHOWERS FOR WHICH A VCSH MENTION WAS MAINTAINED TODAY...THOUGH
BETTER CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHEN THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT IS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THU/FRI WITH PERSISTENT LOW
PRESSURE...AND AGAIN WITH A SAT NGT COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 041004
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
604 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. MAINLY DRY FRIDAY BEFORE SHOWER CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY GRIDS FOR THE NEAR DAWN UPDATE BASED ON OBS
AND NEAR TERM MODEL DATA. PREVIOUS...DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
CLOSE OFF LATER TODAY OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH SHOWERS
INCREASING WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. WITH SOME INSOLATION IN
THE MORNING AND HEIGHT FALLS IN THE AFTERNOON HAVE ADDED A CHANCE
OF LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO
10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. AS CLOSED LOW DEEPENS TONIGHT TOWARD
KENTUCKY...THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL BE UNDER DEFORMATION ZONE ON
FRONT SIDE OF LOW...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COOL MID LEVEL CLOSED SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND CLOSED
LOW COMBINED WITH COLD POOL ALOFT WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY LOW MAY BECOME BECOME
MORE ELONGATED NEAR THE COAST...ALTHOUGH NEWEST LONGER RANGE
MODELS DISAGREE ON PLACEMENT AND SPEED OF LOW LIFTING OUT. HAVE
KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS INTO THE RIDGES FRIDAY WITH A DRYING TREND
ELSEWHERE. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT TO SHUNT LOW TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING BACK SHOWER CHANCES SATURDAY
WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT PUSHING TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPR TROF AND SFC BOUNDARY PASSAGE IS PROGGED ERLY IN THE PERIOD
WITH THE BEST CHCS FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...BUILDING RIDGING
SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER UNTIL AN APPROACHING UPR TROF
ADVANCES OUT OF THE MID WEST BY MID WEEK. TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL LVLS
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE AVG BY MID WEEK. THE SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE...WITH DOWNWARD MID WEEK POP ADJUSTMENT...WAS USED FOR
THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OTHER THAN ISOLATED ERLY MRNG FOG...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THRU THE AFTN. APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SHOULD RESULT IN SCT LGT
SHOWERS FOR WHICH A VCSH MENTION WAS MAINTAINED TODAY...THOUGH
BETTER CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHEN THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT IS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THU/FRI WITH PERSISTENT LOW
PRESSURE...AND AGAIN WITH A SAT NGT COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 040643
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
243 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. MAINLY DRY FRIDAY BEFORE SHOWER CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF LATER TODAY OVER THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH SHOWERS INCREASING WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY. WITH SOME INSOLATION IN THE MORNING AND HEIGHT FALLS IN
THE AFTERNOON HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. AS CLOSED LOW
DEEPENS TONIGHT TOWARD KENTUCKY...THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL BE
UNDER DEFORMATION ZONE ON FRONT SIDE OF LOW...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COOL MID LEVEL CLOSED SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND CLOSED
LOW COMBINED WITH COLD POOL ALOFT WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY LOW MAY BECOME BECOME
MORE ELONGATED NEAR THE COAST...ALTHOUGH NEWEST LONGER RANGE
MODELS DISAGREE ON PLACEMENT AND SPEED OF LOW LIFTING OUT. HAVE
KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS INTO THE RIDGES FRIDAY WITH A DRYING TREND
ELSEWHERE. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT TO SHUNT LOW TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING BACK SHOWER CHANCES SATURDAY
WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT PUSHING TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPR TROF AND SFC BOUNDARY PASSAGE IS PROGGED ERLY IN THE PERIOD
WITH THE BEST CHCS FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...BUILDING RIDGING
SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER UNTIL AN APPROACHING UPR TROF
ADVANCES OUT OF THE MID WEST BY MID WEEK. TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL LVLS
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE AVG BY MID WEEK. THE SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE...WITH DOWNWARD MID WEEK POP ADJUSTMENT...WAS USED FOR
THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE AFTN...THOUGH APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD RESULT IN INCRG SHOWER CHCS BY AFTN FOR WHICH
A VCSH MENTION WAS MAINTAINED. BETTER CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED BY EVENING WHEN THE BEST MOISTURE AND
LIFT IS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THU/FRI WITH PERSISTENT LOW
PRESSURE...AND AGAIN WITH A SAT NGT COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 040643
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
243 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. MAINLY DRY FRIDAY BEFORE SHOWER CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF LATER TODAY OVER THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH SHOWERS INCREASING WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY. WITH SOME INSOLATION IN THE MORNING AND HEIGHT FALLS IN
THE AFTERNOON HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. AS CLOSED LOW
DEEPENS TONIGHT TOWARD KENTUCKY...THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL BE
UNDER DEFORMATION ZONE ON FRONT SIDE OF LOW...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COOL MID LEVEL CLOSED SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND CLOSED
LOW COMBINED WITH COLD POOL ALOFT WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY LOW MAY BECOME BECOME
MORE ELONGATED NEAR THE COAST...ALTHOUGH NEWEST LONGER RANGE
MODELS DISAGREE ON PLACEMENT AND SPEED OF LOW LIFTING OUT. HAVE
KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS INTO THE RIDGES FRIDAY WITH A DRYING TREND
ELSEWHERE. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT TO SHUNT LOW TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING BACK SHOWER CHANCES SATURDAY
WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT PUSHING TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPR TROF AND SFC BOUNDARY PASSAGE IS PROGGED ERLY IN THE PERIOD
WITH THE BEST CHCS FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...BUILDING RIDGING
SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER UNTIL AN APPROACHING UPR TROF
ADVANCES OUT OF THE MID WEST BY MID WEEK. TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL LVLS
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE AVG BY MID WEEK. THE SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE...WITH DOWNWARD MID WEEK POP ADJUSTMENT...WAS USED FOR
THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE AFTN...THOUGH APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD RESULT IN INCRG SHOWER CHCS BY AFTN FOR WHICH
A VCSH MENTION WAS MAINTAINED. BETTER CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED BY EVENING WHEN THE BEST MOISTURE AND
LIFT IS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THU/FRI WITH PERSISTENT LOW
PRESSURE...AND AGAIN WITH A SAT NGT COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 040521
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
121 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS. IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE FOR EARLY
MAY ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MINOR OVERNIGHT CHANGES AS ONLY A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO ON RADAR
SOUTH AND WEST OF PITTSBURGH. MID DECK CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH AND
EAST FROM EASTERN OHIO TOWARD THE RIDGES. NO CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES.

DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH SHOWERS INCREASING WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. WITH SOME INSOLATION IN THE MORNING AND HEIGHT
FALLS IN THE AFTERNOON HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF LATE DAY THUNDER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LONGWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN...EVENTUALLY
CLOSING OFF SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. LATEST
ANOMALIES SHOW HEIGHTS AND TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CENTER
3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL WITH M CLIMATE VALUES OF
30. THEREFORE OPTED TO KEEP THE INHERITED FORECAST LARGELY
UNCHANGED WHICH UNDERCUTS ALL MOS AND BLENDED GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL
DEGREES AND LEANS MORE TOWARDS DIRECT MODEL OUTPUT. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE CLOSEST ANALOGS...AND ON AVERAGE RESULTS IN
TEMPERATURES 15 DEGREES OR SON BELOW NORMAL. WITH A RESPECTABLE
COLD POOL ALOFT...SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO FILL DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK...BUT MODEL WORLD IS NOT CONSISTENT IN
THE SCENARIO...EC...GFS NOW PROGGING CONTD TROUGHING FOR
SUNDAY...WHICH IS OUT OF PHASE WITH PREVIOUS SOLNS.
NEVERTHELESS...DECLINING PRECIP PROBS FROM THE WEST AND GRADUALLY
MODERATING TEMPERATURE AFTER A COLD START SHOULD DEFINE THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...FORECAST FOR WHICH WAS CONSTRUCTED VIA PERSISTENCE
AND COLLABORATIVE TWEAKS GIVEN THE OVRALL LACK OF CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE AFTN...THOUGH APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD RESULT IN INCRG SHOWER CHCS BY AFTN FOR WHICH
A VCSH MENTION WAS MAINTAINED. BETTER CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED BY EVENING WHEN THE BEST MOISTURE AND
LIFT IS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THU/FRI WITH PERSISTENT LOW
PRESSURE...AND AGAIN WITH A SAT NGT COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 040410
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1210 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS. IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE FOR EARLY
MAY ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MINOR OVERNIGHT CHANGES AS ONLY A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO ON RADAR
SOUTH AND WEST OF PITTSBURGH. MID DECK CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH AND
EAST FROM EASTERN OHIO TOWARD THE RIDGES. NO CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES.

DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH SHOWERS INCREASING WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. WITH SOME INSOLATION IN THE MORNING AND HEIGHT
FALLS IN THE AFTERNOON HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF LATE DAY THUNDER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LONGWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN...EVENTUALLY
CLOSING OFF SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. LATEST
ANOMALIES SHOW HEIGHTS AND TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CENTER
3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL WITH M CLIMATE VALUES OF
30. THEREFORE OPTED TO KEEP THE INHERITED FORECAST LARGELY
UNCHANGED WHICH UNDERCUTS ALL MOS AND BLENDED GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL
DEGREES AND LEANS MORE TOWARDS DIRECT MODEL OUTPUT. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE CLOSEST ANALOGS...AND ON AVERAGE RESULTS IN
TEMPERATURES 15 DEGREES OR SON BELOW NORMAL. WITH A RESPECTABLE
COLD POOL ALOFT...SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO FILL DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK...BUT MODEL WORLD IS NOT CONSISTENT IN
THE SCENARIO...EC...GFS NOW PROGGING CONTD TROUGHING FOR
SUNDAY...WHICH IS OUT OF PHASE WITH PREVIOUS SOLNS.
NEVERTHELESS...DECLINING PRECIP PROBS FROM THE WEST AND GRADUALLY
MODERATING TEMPERATURE AFTER A COLD START SHOULD DEFINE THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...FORECAST FOR WHICH WAS CONSTRUCTED VIA PERSISTENCE
AND COLLABORATIVE TWEAKS GIVEN THE OVRALL LACK OF CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A GENERAL VFR FORECAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT MGW JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE. NON
RESTRICTIVE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WED THRU FRI WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT UPR TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 032355 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
755 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS. IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE FOR EARLY
MAY ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NEXT WEEK WE EXPECT A RETURN
TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER TYPICAL OF EARLY MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. HAVE UPDATED POPS IN
LINE WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HIRES DATA. ALSO ADDED IN THE
MENTION OF SPRINKLES AS A VERY DRY AIR MASS NEAR THE SURFACE IS
MAKING IT TOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE ISOLATED SHOWERS TO REACH THE
GROUND. SKIES HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED TO SHOW IMPROVEMENT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE MODIFIED WITH THE
LATEST HIRES BLENDED GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LONGWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN...EVENTUALLY
CLOSING OFF SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. LATEST
ANOMALIES SHOW HEIGHTS AND TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CENTER
3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL WITH M CLIMATE VALUES OF
30. THEREFORE OPTED TO KEEP THE INHERITED FORECAST LARGELY
UNCHANGED WHICH UNDERCUTS ALL MOS AND BLENDED GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL
DEGREES AND LEANS MORE TOWARDS DIRECT MODEL OUTPUT. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE CLOSEST ANALOGS...AND ON AVERAGE RESULTS IN
TEMPERATURES 15 DEGREES OR SON BELOW NORMAL. WITH A RESPECTABLE
COLD POOL ALOFT...SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO FILL DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK...BUT MODEL WORLD IS NOT CONSISTENT IN
THE SCENARIO...EC...GFS NOW PROGGING CONTD TROUGHING FOR
SUNDAY...WHICH IS OUT OF PHASE WITH PREVIOUS SOLNS.
NEVERTHELESS...DECLINING PRECIP PROBS FROM THE WEST AND GRADUALLY
MODERATING TEMPERATURE AFTER A COLD START SHOULD DEFINE THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...FORECAST FOR WHICH WAS CONSTRUCTED VIA PERSISTENCE
AND COLLABORATIVE TWEAKS GIVEN THE OVRALL LACK OF CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A GENERAL VFR FORECAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT MGW JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE. NON
RESTRICTIVE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WED THRU FRI WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT UPR TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 032355 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
755 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS. IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE FOR EARLY
MAY ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NEXT WEEK WE EXPECT A RETURN
TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER TYPICAL OF EARLY MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. HAVE UPDATED POPS IN
LINE WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HIRES DATA. ALSO ADDED IN THE
MENTION OF SPRINKLES AS A VERY DRY AIR MASS NEAR THE SURFACE IS
MAKING IT TOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE ISOLATED SHOWERS TO REACH THE
GROUND. SKIES HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED TO SHOW IMPROVEMENT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE MODIFIED WITH THE
LATEST HIRES BLENDED GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LONGWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN...EVENTUALLY
CLOSING OFF SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. LATEST
ANOMALIES SHOW HEIGHTS AND TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CENTER
3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL WITH M CLIMATE VALUES OF
30. THEREFORE OPTED TO KEEP THE INHERITED FORECAST LARGELY
UNCHANGED WHICH UNDERCUTS ALL MOS AND BLENDED GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL
DEGREES AND LEANS MORE TOWARDS DIRECT MODEL OUTPUT. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE CLOSEST ANALOGS...AND ON AVERAGE RESULTS IN
TEMPERATURES 15 DEGREES OR SON BELOW NORMAL. WITH A RESPECTABLE
COLD POOL ALOFT...SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO FILL DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK...BUT MODEL WORLD IS NOT CONSISTENT IN
THE SCENARIO...EC...GFS NOW PROGGING CONTD TROUGHING FOR
SUNDAY...WHICH IS OUT OF PHASE WITH PREVIOUS SOLNS.
NEVERTHELESS...DECLINING PRECIP PROBS FROM THE WEST AND GRADUALLY
MODERATING TEMPERATURE AFTER A COLD START SHOULD DEFINE THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...FORECAST FOR WHICH WAS CONSTRUCTED VIA PERSISTENCE
AND COLLABORATIVE TWEAKS GIVEN THE OVRALL LACK OF CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A GENERAL VFR FORECAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT MGW JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE. NON
RESTRICTIVE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WED THRU FRI WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT UPR TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 032222 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
622 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS. IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE FOR EARLY
MAY ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NEXT WEEK WE EXPECT A RETURN
TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER TYPICAL OF EARLY MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. HAVE UPDATED POPS IN
LINE WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HIRES DATA. ALSO ADDED IN THE
MENTION OF SPRINKLES AS A VERY DRY AIR MASS NEAR THE SURFACE IS
MAKING IT TOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE ISOLATED SHOWERS TO REACH THE
GROUND. SKIES HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED TO SHOW IMPROVEMENT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE MODIFIED WITH THE
LATEST HIRES BLENDED GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LONGWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN...EVENTUALLY
CLOSING OFF SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. LATEST
ANOMALIES SHOW HEIGHTS AND TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CENTER
3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL WITH M CLIMATE VALUES OF
30. THEREFORE OPTED TO KEEP THE INHERITED FORECAST LARGELY
UNCHANGED WHICH UNDERCUTS ALL MOS AND BLENDED GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL
DEGREES AND LEANS MORE TOWARDS DIRECT MODEL OUTPUT. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE CLOSEST ANALOGS...AND ON AVERAGE RESULTS IN
TEMPERATURES 15 DEGREES OR SON BELOW NORMAL. WITH A RESPECTABLE
COLD POOL ALOFT...SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO FILL DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK...BUT MODEL WORLD IS NOT CONSISTENT IN
THE SCENARIO...EC...GFS NOW PROGGING CONTD TROUGHING FOR
SUNDAY...WHICH IS OUT OF PHASE WITH PREVIOUS SOLNS.
NEVERTHELESS...DECLINING PRECIP PROBS FROM THE WEST AND GRADUALLY
MODERATING TEMPERATURE AFTER A COLD START SHOULD DEFINE THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...FORECAST FOR WHICH WAS CONSTRUCTED VIA PERSISTENCE
AND COLLABORATIVE TWEAKS GIVEN THE OVRALL LACK OF CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECT SOME AIRPORTS TO SEE MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES TOWARD EARLY MORNING. LOCATIONS LIKE KDUJ
WILL LIKELY HAVE IFR RESTRICTIONS. VFR BACK AGAIN ALL AIRPORTS A COUPLE
HOURS AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WED THRU FRI WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT UPR TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031943
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
343 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS. IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE FOR EARLY
MAY ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NEXT WEEK WE EXPECT A RETURN
TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER TYPICAL OF EARLY MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF PITTSBURGH
OVERNIGHT AS A JET STREAK ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
DEEPENING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AVERAGE 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LONGWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN...EVENTUALLY
CLOSING OFF SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. LATEST
ANOMALIES SHOW HEIGHTS AND TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CENTER
3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL WITH M CLIMATE VALUES OF
30. THEREFORE OPTED TO KEEP THE INHERITED FORECAST LARGELY
UNCHANGED WHICH UNDERCUTS ALL MOS AND BLENDED GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL
DEGREES AND LEANS MORE TOWARDS DIRECT MODEL OUTPUT. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE CLOSEST ANALOGS...AND ON AVERAGE RESULTS IN
TEMPERATURES 15 DEGREES OR SON BELOW NORMAL. WITH A RESPECTABLE
COLD POOL ALOFT...SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO FILL DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK...BUT MODEL WORLD IS NOT CONSISTENT IN
THE SCENARIO...EC...GFS NOW PROGGING CONTD TROUGHING FOR
SUNDAY...WHICH IS OUT OF PHASE WITH PREVIOUS SOLNS.
NEVERTHELESS...DECLINING PRECIP PROBS FROM THE WEST AND GRADUALLY
MODERATING TEMPERATURE AFTER A COLD START SHOULD DEFINE THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...FORECAST FOR WHICH WAS CONSTRUCTED VIA PERSISTENCE
AND COLLABORATIVE TWEAKS GIVEN THE OVRALL LACK OF CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECT SOME AIRPORTS TO SEE MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES TOWARD EARLY MORNING. LOCATIONS LIKE KDUJ
WILL LIKELY HAVE IFR RESTRICTIONS. VFR BACK AGAIN ALL AIRPORTS A COUPLE
HOURS AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WED THRU FRI WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT UPR TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031743
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
143 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS. IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE FOR EARLY
MAY ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NEXT WEEK WE EXPECT A RETURN
TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER TYPICAL OF EARLY MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED, BUT AS DAY GOES ON
SHOULD FILL IN QUICKLY AS HEATING OCCURS.

PREVIOUS...IN GENERAL...AN ISOLD TO SCT SHOWER FORECAST WL SUFFICE
ON THE FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFTING UPR TROUGH...CENTERED OVR THE
MIDWEST THIS MRNG.

CLOUD COVER AND WEAK COLD ADVCTN UNDER THE ENCROACHING TROUGH WL
LIMIT TEMPERATURE RECOVERY TODAY. EXPECT READINGS ABOUT 5 DEGREES
UNDR THE AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO CARVE A DEEP TROUGH OVR THE ERN
CONUS BY WEDNESDAY. INCRSG POPS...CUMULATING IN LIKELY
NUMBERS...WERE MAINTAINED FOR THE ADVN AND PASSAGE OF THAT
SYSTEM...WITH SHOWER CHANCES AND COLD CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY.
EXPECT A TEMPERATURE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BY THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO FILL DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK...BUT MODEL WORLD IS NOT CONSISTENT IN
THE SCENARIO...EG...GFS NOW PROGGING CONTD TROUGHING FOR SUNDAY...WHICH
IS OUT OF PHASE WITH PREVIOUS SOLNS. NEVERTHELESS...DECLINING
PRECIP PROBS FROM THE WEST AND GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURE
AFTER A COLD START SHOULD DEFINE THE LONG TERM PERIOD...FORECAST
FOR WHICH WAS CONSTRUCTED VIA PERSISTENCE AND COLLABORATIVE TWEAKS
GIVEN THE OVRALL LACK OF CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECT SOME AIRPORTS TO SEE MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES TOWARD EARLY MORNING. LOCATIONS LIKE KDUJ
WILL LIKELY HAVE IFR RESTRICTIONS. VFR BACK AGAIN ALL AIRPORTS A COUPLE
HOURS AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WED THRU FRI WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT UPR TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031517
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1117 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS. IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE FOR EARLY
MAY ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NEXT WEEK WE EXPECT A RETURN
TO WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED, BUT AS DAY GOES ON
SHOULD FILL IN QUICKLY AS HEATING OCCURS.

PREVIOUS...IN GENERAL...AN ISOLD TO SCT SHOWER FORECAST WL SUFFICE
ON THE FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFTING UPR TROUGH...CENTERED OVR THE
MIDWEST THIS MRNG.

CLOUD COVER AND WEAK COLD ADVCTN UNDER THE ENCROACHING TROUGH WL
LIMIT TEMPERATURE RECOVERY TODAY. EXPECT READINGS ABOUT 5 DEGREES
UNDR THE AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO CARVE A DEEP TROUGH OVR THE ERN
CONUS BY WEDNESDAY. INCRSG POPS...CUMULATING IN LIKELY
NUMBERS...WERE MAINTAINED FOR THE ADVN AND PASSAGE OF THAT
SYSTEM...WITH SHOWER CHANCES AND COLD CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY.
EXPECT A TEMPERATURE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BY THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO FILL DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK...BUT MODEL WORLD IS NOT CONSISTENT IN
THE SCENARIO...EG...GFS NOW PROGGING CONTD TROUGHING FOR SUNDAY...WHICH
IS OUT OF PHASE WITH PREVIOUS SOLNS. NEVERTHELESS...DECLINING
PRECIP PROBS FROM THE WEST AND GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURE
AFTER A COLD START SHOULD DEFINE THE LONG TERM PERIOD...FORECAST
FOR WHICH WAS CONSTRUCTED VIA PERSISTENCE AND COLLABORATIVE TWEAKS
GIVEN THE OVRALL LACK OF CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CEILINGS ARE LIFTING. EXPECT EXPECT VFR TO PERSIST THRU TODAY.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WED THRU FRI WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT UPR TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031402
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1002 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS. IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE FOR EARLY
MAY ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NEXT WEEK WE EXPECT A RETURN
TO WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REMOVED CHANCES OF RAIN AROUND THE PITTSBURGH METRO AREAS UNTIL
THIS AFTERNOON. SATTELITE SHOWS SOME BREAKS IN THE COULDS OVER
EASTERN OH AND SOUTHWESDT PA, BUT SHOULD FILL IN QUICKLY AS
HEATING OCCURS.

PREVIOUS...IN GENERAL...AN ISOLD TO SCT SHOWER FORECAST WL SUFFICE
ON THE FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFTING UPR TROUGH...CENTERED OVR THE
MIDWEST THIS MRNG.

CLOUD COVER AND WEAK COLD ADVCTN UNDER THE ENCROACHING TROUGH WL
LIMIT TEMPERATURE RECOVERY TODAY. EXPECT READINGS ABOUT 5 DEGREES
UNDR THE AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO CARVE A DEEP TROUGH OVR THE ERN
CONUS BY WEDNESDAY. INCRSG POPS...CUMULATING IN LIKELY
NUMBERS...WERE MAINTAINED FOR THE ADVN AND PASSAGE OF THAT
SYSTEM...WITH SHOWER CHANCES AND COLD CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY.
EXPECT A TEMPERATURE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BY THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO FILL DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK...BUT MODEL WORLD IS NOT CONSISTENT IN
THE SCENARIO...EG...GFS NOW PROGGING CONTD TROUGHING FOR SUNDAY...WHICH
IS OUT OF PHASE WITH PREVIOUS SOLNS. NEVERTHELESS...DECLINING
PRECIP PROBS FROM THE WEST AND GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURE
AFTER A COLD START SHOULD DEFINE THE LONG TERM PERIOD...FORECAST
FOR WHICH WAS CONSTRUCTED VIA PERSISTENCE AND COLLABORATIVE TWEAKS
GIVEN THE OVRALL LACK OF CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VIDIBILITY HAS IMPROVED EXCEPT FOR SOME RETRICTION AT KDUJ.
CEILING ARE LIFTING. EXPECT MVFR TO PERSIST THRU 16Z. STRATOCU
SHOULD CONTINUE THRU THIS EVE WITH AN APPROACHING UPR
TROF...THOUGH CIGS HEIGHTS FOR ALL PORTS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY
16-17Z AS MIXING INCREASES.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WED THRU FRI WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT UPR TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031402
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1002 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS. IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE FOR EARLY
MAY ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NEXT WEEK WE EXPECT A RETURN
TO WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REMOVED CHANCES OF RAIN AROUND THE PITTSBURGH METRO AREAS UNTIL
THIS AFTERNOON. SATTELITE SHOWS SOME BREAKS IN THE COULDS OVER
EASTERN OH AND SOUTHWESDT PA, BUT SHOULD FILL IN QUICKLY AS
HEATING OCCURS.

PREVIOUS...IN GENERAL...AN ISOLD TO SCT SHOWER FORECAST WL SUFFICE
ON THE FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFTING UPR TROUGH...CENTERED OVR THE
MIDWEST THIS MRNG.

CLOUD COVER AND WEAK COLD ADVCTN UNDER THE ENCROACHING TROUGH WL
LIMIT TEMPERATURE RECOVERY TODAY. EXPECT READINGS ABOUT 5 DEGREES
UNDR THE AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO CARVE A DEEP TROUGH OVR THE ERN
CONUS BY WEDNESDAY. INCRSG POPS...CUMULATING IN LIKELY
NUMBERS...WERE MAINTAINED FOR THE ADVN AND PASSAGE OF THAT
SYSTEM...WITH SHOWER CHANCES AND COLD CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY.
EXPECT A TEMPERATURE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BY THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO FILL DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK...BUT MODEL WORLD IS NOT CONSISTENT IN
THE SCENARIO...EG...GFS NOW PROGGING CONTD TROUGHING FOR SUNDAY...WHICH
IS OUT OF PHASE WITH PREVIOUS SOLNS. NEVERTHELESS...DECLINING
PRECIP PROBS FROM THE WEST AND GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURE
AFTER A COLD START SHOULD DEFINE THE LONG TERM PERIOD...FORECAST
FOR WHICH WAS CONSTRUCTED VIA PERSISTENCE AND COLLABORATIVE TWEAKS
GIVEN THE OVRALL LACK OF CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VIDIBILITY HAS IMPROVED EXCEPT FOR SOME RETRICTION AT KDUJ.
CEILING ARE LIFTING. EXPECT MVFR TO PERSIST THRU 16Z. STRATOCU
SHOULD CONTINUE THRU THIS EVE WITH AN APPROACHING UPR
TROF...THOUGH CIGS HEIGHTS FOR ALL PORTS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY
16-17Z AS MIXING INCREASES.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WED THRU FRI WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT UPR TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031025
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
625 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL MAINTAIN DAILY RAIN CHANCES
THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE NEAR DAWN UPDATE. PREVIOUS...IN
GENERAL...AN ISOLD TO SCT SHOWER FORECAST WL SUFFICE ON THE FLANK
OF THE EWD SHIFTING UPR TROUGH...CENTERED OVR THE MIDWEST THIS
MRNG.

CLOUD COVER AND WEAK COLD ADVCTN UNDER THE ENCROACHING TROUGH WL
LIMIT TEMPERATURE RECOVERY TODAY. EXPECT READINGS ABOUT 5 DEGREES
UNDR THE AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO CARVE A DEEP TROUGH OVR THE ERN
CONUS BY WEDNESDAY. INCRSG POPS...CUMULATING IN LIKELY
NUMBERS...WERE MAINTAINED FOR THE ADVN AND PASSAGE OF THAT
SYSTEM...WITH SHOWER CHANCES AND COLD CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY.
EXPECT A TEMPERATURE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BY THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO FILL DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK...BUT MODEL WORLD IS NOT CONSISTENT IN
THE SCENARIO...EG...GFS NOW PROGGING CONTD TROUGHING FOR SUNDAY...WHICH
IS OUT OF PHASE WITH PREVIOUS SOLNS. NEVERTHELESS...DECLINING
PRECIP PROBS FROM THE WEST AND GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURE
AFTER A COLD START SHOULD DEFINE THE LONG TERM PERIOD...FORECAST
FOR WHICH WAS CONSTRUCTED VIA PERSISTENCE AND COLLABORATIVE TWEAKS
GIVEN THE OVRALL LACK OF CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR WITH OCNL IFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST THRU ERLY THIS MRNG
WITH AN EXITING SHORTWAVE. STRATOCU SHOULD CONTINUE THRU THIS EVE
WITH AN APPROACHING UPR TROF...THOUGH CIGS HEIGHTS FOR ALL PORTS
SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY LATE MRNG AS MIXING INCREASES.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WED THRU FRI WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT UPR TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030738
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
338 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL MAINTAIN DAILY RAIN CHANCES
THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
IN GENERAL...AN ISOLD TO SCT SHOWER FORECAST WL SUFFICE ON THE
FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFTING UPR TROUGH...CENTERED OVR THE MIDWEST
THIS MRNG.

CLOUD COVER AND WEAK COLD ADVCTN UNDER THE ENCROACHING TROUGH WL
LIMIT TEMPERATURE RECOVERY TODAY. EXPECT READINGS ABOUT 5 DEGREES
UNDR THE AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO CARVE A DEEP TROUGH OVR THE ERN
CONUS BY WEDNESDAY. INCRSG POPS...CUMULATING IN LIKELY
NUMBERS...WERE MAINTAINED FOR THE ADVN AND PASSAGE OF THAT
SYSTEM...WITH SHOWER CHANCES AND COLD CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY.
EXPECT A TEMPERATURE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BY THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO FILL DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK...BUT MODEL WORLD IS NOT CONSISTENT IN
THE SCENARIO...EG...GFS NOW PROGGING CONTD TROUGHING FOR SUNDAY...WHICH
IS OUT OF PHASE WITH PREVIOUS SOLNS. NEVERTHELESS...DECLINING
PRECIP PROBS FROM THE WEST AND GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURE
AFTER A COLD START SHOULD DEFINE THE LONG TERM PERIOD...FORECAST
FOR WHICH WAS CONSTRUCTED VIA PERSISTENCE AND COLLABORATIVE TWEAKS
GIVEN THE OVRALL LACK OF CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR/PATCHY MVFR STRATOCU...AND A FEW SCT SHOWERS S-SE OF
PIT...SHOULD PERSIST THRU ERLY THIS MRNG WITH AN EXITING
SHORTWAVE. STRATOCU CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THRU TUE EVE WITH AN
APPROACHING UPR TROF...THOUGH CIGS HEIGHTS FOR ALL PORTS SHOULD
RETURN TO VFR AS MIXING INCREASES.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WED THRU FRI WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT UPR TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/07





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030339
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1139 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL MAINTAIN DAILY RAIN CHANCES
THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LATE EVE UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST POPS FORE REDUCED RAIN
COVERAGE. IN GENERAL...AN ISOLD TO SCT SHOWER FORECAST WL SUFFICE
ON THE FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFTING UPR TROUGH...CENTERED OVR THE
MIDWEST THIS EVE.

CLOUD COVER AND WEAK COLD ADVCTN UNDER THE ENCROACHING UPR TROUGH
WL LIMIT TEMPERATURE RECOVERY ON TUESDAY. EXPECT READINGS ABOUT 5
DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO CARVE A DEEP TROUGH OVR THE ERN
CONUS BY WEDNESDAY. INCRSG POPS...CUMULATING IN LIKELY
NUMBERS...WERE MAINTAINED FOR THE ADVN AND PASSAGE OF THAT
SYSTEM...WITH SHOWER CHANCES AND COLD CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY.
EXPECT TEMPERATURE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BY THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO FILL FOR THE
START OF THE NEW WEEK. DECLINING PRECIP PROBS FROM THE WEST AND
GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURE AFTER A COLD START WL THUS
DEFINE THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR/PATCHY MVFR STRATOCU...AND A FEW SCT SHOWERS S-SE OF
PIT...SHOULD PERSIST THRU ERLY THIS MRNG WITH AN EXITING
SHORTWAVE. STRATOCU CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THRU TUE EVE WITH AN
APPROACHING UPR TROF...THOUGH CIGS HEIGHTS FOR ALL PORTS SHOULD
RETURN TO VFR AS MIXING INCREASES.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WED THRU FRI WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT UPR TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030122
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
922 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL MAINTAIN DAILY RAIN CHANCES
THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COVERAGE OF RAIN HAS REALLY DECREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS
SURFACE LOW LIFTS TOWARDS THE MIDATLANTIC COAST. WITH MAIN
SHORTWAVE STILL TO THE WEST AND APPROACHING OVERNIGHT...SOME
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS IS STILL EXPECTED ESPECIALLY TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH. HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS A BIT TO THIS
THINKING. WITH NO INSTABILITY LEFT AND THE THREAT OF THUNDER/HEAVY
RAIN CEASING...HAVE DROPPED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. LOWERED MIN
TEMPS A TICK OR TWO OVERNIGHT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND MOS
GUIDANCE.

STILL EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY
AS SHALLOW AND MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WHERE CLOUDS CAN BREAK.
H500 HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL AS TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
A BIT BELOW NORMAL.
CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND RESULT IN CHANCES FOR RAIN AND UNSEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOSED LOW CENTER OVER VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA WILL TRANSITION
EAST AND FILL AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS
SHOULD KEEP FRIDAY AND MOST OF SATURDAY DRY UNTIL THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST TERMINALS ARE VFR TO START THE PERIOD...BUT A DROP TO MVFR IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE SWEEPS IN FROM THE WEST. MOST
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR SOUTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH OVERNIGHT. PATCHY
FOG AND LOW MVFR OR EVEN IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE
IN LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS FIGURED FOR
TUESDAY...WITH MOST SITES ACHIEVING VFR CEILINGS BY AFTERNOON. A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP AS WELL IN AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY.
CL

.OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IN AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL PROVIDE POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 022332
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
732 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL MAINTAIN DAILY RAIN CHANCES
THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MADE SOME TWEAKS TO POPS WITH ENSEMBLE/RADAR DATA. CONFIDENCE IN
POTENTIALLY SEVERE HAIL IS DECREASING AS OVERALL INSTABILITY
PROFILES ARE WEAK AND FIGURE TO STAY THAT WAY...BUT STILL DO ALLOW
FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING SOUTHEAST OF
PITTSBURGH. THIS LACK OF INSTABILITY MAY ALSO HELP TO KEEP
RAINFALL RATES IN CHECK ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MUCH OF A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IN THE WATCH AREA. WILL MAINTAIN FOR NOW AND MONITOR
TRENDS. CL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR TUESDAY...

THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WILL BE SLOWED INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE UPPER JET LOOKS TO ALIGN SOMEWHAT
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION...YET ANOTHER MID-LEVEL WAVE
WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY START THE
FRONT MOVING EASTWARD BY LATE TUESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...ANY
CLEARING ON TUESDAY WILL AGAIN SECONDARILY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS DUE TO AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND RESULT IN CHANCES FOR RAIN AND UNSEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOSED LOW CENTER OVER VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA WILL TRANSITION
EAST AND FILL AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS
SHOULD KEEP FRIDAY AND MOST OF SATURDAY DRY UNTIL THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST TERMINALS ARE VFR TO START THE PERIOD...BUT A DROP TO MVFR IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE SWEEPS IN FROM THE WEST. MOST
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR SOUTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH OVERNIGHT. PATCHY
FOG AND LOW MVFR OR EVEN IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE
IN LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS FIGURED FOR
TUESDAY...WITH MOST SITES ACHIEVING VFR CEILINGS BY AFTERNOON. A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP AS WELL IN AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY.
CL

.OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IN AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL PROVIDE POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WVZ012-021-
     509>514.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 022332
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
732 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL MAINTAIN DAILY RAIN CHANCES
THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MADE SOME TWEAKS TO POPS WITH ENSEMBLE/RADAR DATA. CONFIDENCE IN
POTENTIALLY SEVERE HAIL IS DECREASING AS OVERALL INSTABILITY
PROFILES ARE WEAK AND FIGURE TO STAY THAT WAY...BUT STILL DO ALLOW
FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING SOUTHEAST OF
PITTSBURGH. THIS LACK OF INSTABILITY MAY ALSO HELP TO KEEP
RAINFALL RATES IN CHECK ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MUCH OF A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IN THE WATCH AREA. WILL MAINTAIN FOR NOW AND MONITOR
TRENDS. CL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR TUESDAY...

THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WILL BE SLOWED INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE UPPER JET LOOKS TO ALIGN SOMEWHAT
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION...YET ANOTHER MID-LEVEL WAVE
WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY START THE
FRONT MOVING EASTWARD BY LATE TUESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...ANY
CLEARING ON TUESDAY WILL AGAIN SECONDARILY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS DUE TO AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND RESULT IN CHANCES FOR RAIN AND UNSEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOSED LOW CENTER OVER VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA WILL TRANSITION
EAST AND FILL AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS
SHOULD KEEP FRIDAY AND MOST OF SATURDAY DRY UNTIL THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST TERMINALS ARE VFR TO START THE PERIOD...BUT A DROP TO MVFR IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE SWEEPS IN FROM THE WEST. MOST
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR SOUTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH OVERNIGHT. PATCHY
FOG AND LOW MVFR OR EVEN IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE
IN LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS FIGURED FOR
TUESDAY...WITH MOST SITES ACHIEVING VFR CEILINGS BY AFTERNOON. A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP AS WELL IN AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY.
CL

.OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IN AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL PROVIDE POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WVZ012-021-
     509>514.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 022201
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
601 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL MAINTAIN DAILY RAIN CHANCES
THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MADE SOME TWEAKS TO POPS WITH ENSEMBLE/RADAR DATA. CONFIDENCE IN
POTENTIALLY SEVERE HAIL IS DECREASING AS OVERALL INSTABILITY
PROFILES ARE WEAK AND FIGURE TO STAY THAT WAY...BUT STILL DO ALLOW
FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING SOUTHEAST OF
PITTSBURGH. THIS LACK OF INSTABILITY MAY ALSO HELP TO KEEP
RAINFALL RATES IN CHECK ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MUCH OF A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IN THE WATCH AREA. WILL MAINTAIN FOR NOW AND MONITOR
TRENDS. CL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR TUESDAY...

THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WILL BE SLOWED INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE UPPER JET LOOKS TO ALIGN SOMEWHAT
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION...YET ANOTHER MID-LEVEL WAVE
WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY START THE
FRONT MOVING EASTWARD BY LATE TUESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...ANY
CLEARING ON TUESDAY WILL AGAIN SECONDARILY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS DUE TO AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND RESULT IN CHANCES FOR RAIN AND UNSEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOSED LOW CENTER OVER VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA WILL TRANSITION
EAST AND FILL AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS
SHOULD KEEP FRIDAY AND MOST OF SATURDAY DRY UNTIL THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR/PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MRNG AS LOW LVL
MOISTURE PERSISTS BEHIND AN EXITING SHORTWAVE. AN UPR TROF SHOULD
MAINTAIN MVFR CONDITIONS THRU LATE MRNG/ERLY AFTN BEFORE A RETURN
TO VFR IS EXPECTED AS MIXING INCREASES CIG HEIGHTS. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE RETURNS MVFR RESTRICTION POTENTIAL TONIGHT ESP FOR
PORTS S OF PIT.

.OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WED THRU FRI WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT UPR TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WVZ012-021-
     509>514.

&&

$$





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