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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 222209
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
609 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WHILE
INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
EARLY EVE UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST FOR RAPIDLY DIMINISHING
STRATOCU DECK AS BNDRY LYR FLOW OFF THE LAKES IN WEAKENING AND
BACKING TO THE WEST.

DRY ADVCTN OFF THE SFC WL CONT FOR A WHILE THOUGH RESULTING IN A
DRY HYDROLAPSE ADJACENT TO THE SFC. TEMPS ARE THUS EXPECTED TO
DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AND MOST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO
EXPERIENCE LOWS IN THE UPR 30S AS RESIDUAL SFC MSTR DEWS...OR
FROSTS OUT. PATCHY FROST MENTION HAS BEEN CONTD FOR THOSE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE WRN AND SRN COUNTIES...WHILE MORE WIDESPREAD
FROST IS ANTICIPATED ADJACENT TO THE RIDGES AS ELEVATED VALLEYS
MAY SEE MID/ISOLD LOW 30S. THOSE AREAS RMN UNDR A FROST ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WL CONT TO DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM PD AS MID/UPR LVL HTS
RISE ACRS THE MIDWEST. SOME MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO CREEP UP THE
APPALACHIANS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...BUT A PROGGED LACK
OF FORCING AND OVRALL SBSDNC SHOULD KEEP IT FROM BEING A DECISIVE
PLAYER IN THE FORECAST. AS SUCH...DRY CONDITIONS WERE FAVORED
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE
AVGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RMN FM 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS INTO
EARLY NXT WEEK AS UPR RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVR THE ERN CONUS. ECMWF
CONTS TO HINT AT A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPING OVR THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THIS WEEKEND...BUT THAT SOLN IS AGAIN OUT OF PHASE WITH THE
GFS. PERSISTENCE RMNS THE PRUDENT RESPONSE AND A DRY FORECAST HAS
BEEN CONTD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRATOCU WL DIMINISH FM THE W THIS EVE AS COLD NW FLOW OFF THE
LAKES WEAKENS AND AS TEMPS FALL BLO CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS. GENL
VFR IS THEN EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH STEAM FOG OFF THE RIVERS MAY TAINT
THE NR DAWN WITH SOME BRIEF RESTRICTIONS AT PORTS IN VCNTY.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENL VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE RMNDR OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR PAZ074-076.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR WVZ023-041.

&&

$$

15






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221859
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
259 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE A WARMING TREND AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARRIVE BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
ABUNDANT STRATUS CONTINUES INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH STRONG LAPSE
RATES AND LITTLE SHEAR BELOW THE STUBBORN 4 KFT INVERSION LEVEL.
WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING BELOW THIS LEVEL...MOISTURE
FROM LAKES ERIE AND HURON CONTINUES TO COME OVER THE
AREA...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD STRATUS. BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING...SHEAR BELOW THE INVERSION LEVEL WILL
INCREASE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL START TO BACK TO A MORE WESTERLY
AND EVENTUALLY VERY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL OCCUR
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS INTO THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY CENTERING ITSELF OVER THE RIDGES BY 12Z
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A RAPIDLY DRYING BOUNDARY
LAYER AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA CONCURRENT WITH CLEARING
AND SUBSIDENCE.

WITH VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL MIXING AND WEAK OVERNIGHT
FLOW...TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUMMET IN THE VALLEYS AND LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...PARTICULARLY IN THOSE IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER THAT CLEAR FIRST AND ARE THE MOST ISOLATED AMONGST
THE TERRAIN. IN THESE AREA...PARTICULARLY IN THE VALLEYS AMONGST
THE RIDGES...FROST WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY AND WIDESPREAD. AS
SUCH...A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
GARRETT/PRESTON/TUCKER/EASTERN WESTMORELAND/EASTERN FAYETTE
THROUGH SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MID 30S WILL BE
QUITE COMMON IN THESE LOCATIONS...AND GIVEN THE REGIME...THE
COLDEST SPOTS WILL LIKELY DROP NEAR/SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. GIVEN
THAT FROST IS LIKELY TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...YET SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED...A FROST ADVISORY SEEMS
LIKE A MORE PRUDENT HEADLINE THAN A FREEZING WARNING. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE INTO THE SHORT TERM AS MID-
LEVEL HEIGHT VALUES SOAR ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. SOME MOISTURE
ATTEMPTS TO CREEP UP THE APPALACHIANS ROUGHLY CENTERED AROUND
THURSDAY...HOWEVER A LACK OF FORCING AND NEARBY SUBSIDENCE SHOULD
KEEP IT FROM BEING A LARGE PLAYER IN THE FORECAST. AS SUCH...DRY
CONDITIONS WERE FAVORED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES JUMPING
ABOVE NORMAL LARGELY INTO THE MID 70S. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS ABOUT AS QUIET AS CAN BE
EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE REGION. A SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST...BUT OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REIGN SUPREME
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW OVER WARM LAKE ERIE HAS ALLOWED MVFR
STRATOCUMULUS TO DEVELOP ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT SOME IFR
CIGS AT FKL/DUJ...BUT DO NOT THINK THESE LOWER CIGS WILL MAKE IT
INTO OTHER TERMINALS. MAY BE OVERDOING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WITH
VCSH AT FKL/DUJ...BUT CURRENTLY HAVE THIS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SUNRISE. AS WINDS START TO BACK TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER
SUNRISE...CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY IN COVERAGE
ALONG WITH RISE IN HEIGHT. ONCE WINDS GO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVNG IN FROM THE WEST AROUND SUNSET...CIGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENL VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE RMNDR OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR PAZ074-076.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR WVZ023-041.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221859
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
259 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE A WARMING TREND AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARRIVE BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
ABUNDANT STRATUS CONTINUES INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH STRONG LAPSE
RATES AND LITTLE SHEAR BELOW THE STUBBORN 4 KFT INVERSION LEVEL.
WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING BELOW THIS LEVEL...MOISTURE
FROM LAKES ERIE AND HURON CONTINUES TO COME OVER THE
AREA...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD STRATUS. BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING...SHEAR BELOW THE INVERSION LEVEL WILL
INCREASE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL START TO BACK TO A MORE WESTERLY
AND EVENTUALLY VERY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL OCCUR
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS INTO THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY CENTERING ITSELF OVER THE RIDGES BY 12Z
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A RAPIDLY DRYING BOUNDARY
LAYER AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA CONCURRENT WITH CLEARING
AND SUBSIDENCE.

WITH VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL MIXING AND WEAK OVERNIGHT
FLOW...TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUMMET IN THE VALLEYS AND LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...PARTICULARLY IN THOSE IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER THAT CLEAR FIRST AND ARE THE MOST ISOLATED AMONGST
THE TERRAIN. IN THESE AREA...PARTICULARLY IN THE VALLEYS AMONGST
THE RIDGES...FROST WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY AND WIDESPREAD. AS
SUCH...A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
GARRETT/PRESTON/TUCKER/EASTERN WESTMORELAND/EASTERN FAYETTE
THROUGH SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MID 30S WILL BE
QUITE COMMON IN THESE LOCATIONS...AND GIVEN THE REGIME...THE
COLDEST SPOTS WILL LIKELY DROP NEAR/SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. GIVEN
THAT FROST IS LIKELY TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...YET SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED...A FROST ADVISORY SEEMS
LIKE A MORE PRUDENT HEADLINE THAN A FREEZING WARNING. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE INTO THE SHORT TERM AS MID-
LEVEL HEIGHT VALUES SOAR ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. SOME MOISTURE
ATTEMPTS TO CREEP UP THE APPALACHIANS ROUGHLY CENTERED AROUND
THURSDAY...HOWEVER A LACK OF FORCING AND NEARBY SUBSIDENCE SHOULD
KEEP IT FROM BEING A LARGE PLAYER IN THE FORECAST. AS SUCH...DRY
CONDITIONS WERE FAVORED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES JUMPING
ABOVE NORMAL LARGELY INTO THE MID 70S. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS ABOUT AS QUIET AS CAN BE
EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE REGION. A SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST...BUT OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REIGN SUPREME
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW OVER WARM LAKE ERIE HAS ALLOWED MVFR
STRATOCUMULUS TO DEVELOP ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT SOME IFR
CIGS AT FKL/DUJ...BUT DO NOT THINK THESE LOWER CIGS WILL MAKE IT
INTO OTHER TERMINALS. MAY BE OVERDOING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WITH
VCSH AT FKL/DUJ...BUT CURRENTLY HAVE THIS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SUNRISE. AS WINDS START TO BACK TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER
SUNRISE...CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY IN COVERAGE
ALONG WITH RISE IN HEIGHT. ONCE WINDS GO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVNG IN FROM THE WEST AROUND SUNSET...CIGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENL VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE RMNDR OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR PAZ074-076.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR WVZ023-041.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221742
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
142 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE A WARMING TREND AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARRIVE BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ABUNDANT STRATUS CONTINUES INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH STRONG LAPSE
RATES AND LITTLE SHEAR BELOW THE STUBBORN 4 KFT INVERSION LEVEL.
WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING BELOW THIS LEVEL...MOISTURE
FROM LAKES ERIE AND HURON CONTINUES TO COME OVER THE
AREA...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD STRATUS. BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING...SHEAR BELOW THE INVERSION LEVEL WILL
INCREASE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL START TO BACK TO A MORE WESTERLY
AND EVENTUALLY VERY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL OCCUR
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS INTO THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY CENTERING ITSELF OVER THE RIDGES BY 12Z
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A RAPIDLY DRYING BOUNDARY
LAYER AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA CONCURRENT WITH CLEARING
AND SUBSIDENCE.

WITH VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL MIXING AND WEAK OVERNIGHT
FLOW...TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUMMETT IN THE VALLEYS AND LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...PARTICULARLY IN THOSE IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER THAT CLEAR FIRST AND ARE THE MOST ISOLATED AMONGST
THE TERRAIN. IN THESE AREA...PARTICULARLY IN THE VALLEYS AMONGST
THE RIDGES...FROST WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY AND WIDESPREAD. AS
SUCH...A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
GARRETT/PRESTON/TUCKER/EASTERN WESTMORELAND/EASTERN FAYETTE
THROUGH SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MID 30S WILL BE
QUITE COMMON IN THESE LOCATIONS...AND GIVEN THE REGIME...THE
COLDEST SPOTS WILL LIKELY DROP NEAR/SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. GIVEN
THAT FROST IS LIKELY TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...YET SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED...A FROST ADVISORY SEEMS
LIKE A MORE PRUDENT HEADLINE THAN A FREEZING WARNING. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL MAINTAIN
DRY CONDITIONS AND INITIATE A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES THAT
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO
AT LEAST TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG INCLUDED ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. BASED ON A BLEND OF LATEST
GUIDANCE...DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SUFFICIENTLY HIGH
TO TO WHERE FROST WOULD NOT BE A CONCERN...HOWEVER...THIS BEARS
WATCHING ESPECIALLY IF SURFACE DEWPOINTS TREND LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS ABOUT AS QUIET AS CAN BE
EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE REGION. A SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST...BUT OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REIGN SUPREME
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW OVER WARM LAKE ERIE HAS ALLOWED MVFR
STRATOCUMULUS TO DEVELOP ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT SOME IFR
CIGS AT FKL/DUJ...BUT DO NOT THINK THESE LOWER CIGS WILL MAKE IT
INTO OTHER TERMINALS. MAY BE OVERDOING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WITH
VCSH AT FKL/DUJ...BUT CURRENTLY HAVE THIS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SUNRISE. AS WINDS START TO BACK TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER
SUNRISE...CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY IN COVERAGE
ALONG WITH RISE IN HEIGHT. ONCE WINDS GO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVNG IN FROM THE WEST AROUND SUNSET...CIGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENL VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE RMNDR OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR PAZ074-076.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR WVZ023-041.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221742
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
142 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE A WARMING TREND AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARRIVE BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ABUNDANT STRATUS CONTINUES INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH STRONG LAPSE
RATES AND LITTLE SHEAR BELOW THE STUBBORN 4 KFT INVERSION LEVEL.
WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING BELOW THIS LEVEL...MOISTURE
FROM LAKES ERIE AND HURON CONTINUES TO COME OVER THE
AREA...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD STRATUS. BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING...SHEAR BELOW THE INVERSION LEVEL WILL
INCREASE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL START TO BACK TO A MORE WESTERLY
AND EVENTUALLY VERY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL OCCUR
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS INTO THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY CENTERING ITSELF OVER THE RIDGES BY 12Z
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A RAPIDLY DRYING BOUNDARY
LAYER AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA CONCURRENT WITH CLEARING
AND SUBSIDENCE.

WITH VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL MIXING AND WEAK OVERNIGHT
FLOW...TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUMMETT IN THE VALLEYS AND LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...PARTICULARLY IN THOSE IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER THAT CLEAR FIRST AND ARE THE MOST ISOLATED AMONGST
THE TERRAIN. IN THESE AREA...PARTICULARLY IN THE VALLEYS AMONGST
THE RIDGES...FROST WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY AND WIDESPREAD. AS
SUCH...A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
GARRETT/PRESTON/TUCKER/EASTERN WESTMORELAND/EASTERN FAYETTE
THROUGH SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MID 30S WILL BE
QUITE COMMON IN THESE LOCATIONS...AND GIVEN THE REGIME...THE
COLDEST SPOTS WILL LIKELY DROP NEAR/SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. GIVEN
THAT FROST IS LIKELY TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...YET SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED...A FROST ADVISORY SEEMS
LIKE A MORE PRUDENT HEADLINE THAN A FREEZING WARNING. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL MAINTAIN
DRY CONDITIONS AND INITIATE A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES THAT
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO
AT LEAST TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG INCLUDED ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. BASED ON A BLEND OF LATEST
GUIDANCE...DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SUFFICIENTLY HIGH
TO TO WHERE FROST WOULD NOT BE A CONCERN...HOWEVER...THIS BEARS
WATCHING ESPECIALLY IF SURFACE DEWPOINTS TREND LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS ABOUT AS QUIET AS CAN BE
EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE REGION. A SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST...BUT OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REIGN SUPREME
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW OVER WARM LAKE ERIE HAS ALLOWED MVFR
STRATOCUMULUS TO DEVELOP ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT SOME IFR
CIGS AT FKL/DUJ...BUT DO NOT THINK THESE LOWER CIGS WILL MAKE IT
INTO OTHER TERMINALS. MAY BE OVERDOING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WITH
VCSH AT FKL/DUJ...BUT CURRENTLY HAVE THIS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SUNRISE. AS WINDS START TO BACK TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER
SUNRISE...CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY IN COVERAGE
ALONG WITH RISE IN HEIGHT. ONCE WINDS GO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVNG IN FROM THE WEST AROUND SUNSET...CIGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENL VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE RMNDR OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR PAZ074-076.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR WVZ023-041.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221220
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
820 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LAPSE RATES LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN BELOW AN INVERSION
LEVEL OF AROUND 4 KFT THIS MORNING IN STRONG POST-FRONTAL COLD
ADVECTION. VERY MINIMAL SHEAR AND AMPLE LAKE TO INVERSION LEVEL
DELTA-T VALUES HAVE MANAGED TO DEVELOP AND MAINTAIN A COUPLE OF
FAIRLY COLD LAKE EFFECT RAIN BANDS DOWNWIND FROM LAKE ERIE. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THESE BANDS SHOULD MAINTAIN THEMSELVES SEVERAL
MORE HOURS...SO POPS WERE EXTENDED A BIT FURTHER INTO THE DAYTIME
HOURS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH AND IN THE RIDGES FOR THESE SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE...SATURATION AT THE INVERSION LEVEL WITH COLD ADVECTION
SHOULD HOLD ON TO ABUNDANT STRATOCUMULUS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
WILL LIKELY KEEPS TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL MAINTAIN
DRY CONDITIONS AND INITIATE A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES THAT
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO
AT LEAST TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG INCLUDED ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. BASED ON A BLEND OF LATEST
GUIDANCE...DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SUFFICIENTLY HIGH
TO TO WHERE FROST WOULD NOT BE A CONCERN...HOWEVER...THIS BEARS
WATCHING ESPECIALLY IF SURFACE DEWPOINTS TREND LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS ABOUT AS QUIET AS CAN BE
EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE REGION. A SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST...BUT OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REIGN SUPREME
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW OVER WARM LAKE ERIE HAS ALLOWED MVFR
STRATOCUMULUS TO DEVELOP ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT SOME IFR
CIGS AT FKL/DUJ...BUT DO NOT THINK THESE LOWER CIGS WILL MAKE IT
INTO OTHER TERMINALS. MAY BE OVERDOING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WITH
VCSH AT FKL/DUJ...BUT CURRENTLY HAVE THIS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SUNRISE. AS WINDS START TO BACK TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER
SUNRISE...CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY IN COVERAGE
ALONG WITH RISE IN HEIGHT. ONCE WINDS GO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVNG IN FROM THE WEST AROUND SUNSET...CIGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENL VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE RMNDR OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220858
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
458 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT RECENTLY PASSED
THROUGH THE AREA WILL RESULT IN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AS COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE WARMER
LAKES MAINTAINS A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS DECK AROUND 4KFT.
ANY LINGERING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES MORE SHALLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL MAINTAIN
DRY CONDITIONS AND INITIATE A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES THAT
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO
AT LEAST TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG INCLUDED ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. BASED ON A BLEND OF LATEST
GUIDANCE...DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SUFFICIENTLY HIGH
TO TO WHERE FROST WOULD NOT BE A CONCERN...HOWEVER...THIS BEARS
WATCHING ESPECIALLY IF SURFACE DEWPOINTS TREND LOWER.



&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS ABOUT AS QUIET AS CAN BE
EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE REGION. A SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST...BUT OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REIGN SUPREME
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW OVER WARM LAKE ERIE HAS ALLOWED MVFR
STRATOCUMULUS TO DEVELOP ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT SOME IFR
CIGS AT FKL/DUJ...BUT DO NOT THINK THESE LOWER CIGS WILL MAKE IT
INTO OTHER TERMINALS. MAY BE OVERDOING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WITH
VCSH AT FKL/DUJ...BUT CURRENTLY HAVE THIS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SUNRISE. AS WINDS START TO BACK TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER
SUNRISE...CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY IN COVERAGE
ALONG WITH RISE IN HEIGHT. ONCE WINDS GO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVNG IN FROM THE WEST AROUND SUNSET...CIGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENL VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE RMNDR OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220858
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
458 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT RECENTLY PASSED
THROUGH THE AREA WILL RESULT IN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AS COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE WARMER
LAKES MAINTAINS A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS DECK AROUND 4KFT.
ANY LINGERING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES MORE SHALLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL MAINTAIN
DRY CONDITIONS AND INITIATE A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES THAT
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO
AT LEAST TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG INCLUDED ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. BASED ON A BLEND OF LATEST
GUIDANCE...DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SUFFICIENTLY HIGH
TO TO WHERE FROST WOULD NOT BE A CONCERN...HOWEVER...THIS BEARS
WATCHING ESPECIALLY IF SURFACE DEWPOINTS TREND LOWER.



&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS ABOUT AS QUIET AS CAN BE
EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE REGION. A SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST...BUT OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REIGN SUPREME
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW OVER WARM LAKE ERIE HAS ALLOWED MVFR
STRATOCUMULUS TO DEVELOP ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT SOME IFR
CIGS AT FKL/DUJ...BUT DO NOT THINK THESE LOWER CIGS WILL MAKE IT
INTO OTHER TERMINALS. MAY BE OVERDOING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WITH
VCSH AT FKL/DUJ...BUT CURRENTLY HAVE THIS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SUNRISE. AS WINDS START TO BACK TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER
SUNRISE...CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY IN COVERAGE
ALONG WITH RISE IN HEIGHT. ONCE WINDS GO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVNG IN FROM THE WEST AROUND SUNSET...CIGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENL VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE RMNDR OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220644
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
244 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WHILE
INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME AS LATEST OBSERVATIONS ALIGN WELL
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..


 EARLY EVE UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO FURTHER ADJUST HOURLY TRENDS AS
CDFNT FEATURING A 10 TO 15 DEGREE DEWPOINT DROP HAS ABOUT
COMPLETED A SWEEP OF THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION.

COLD ADVCTN WITH A REINFORCING FRONT WL SPPRT SOME ISOLD TO SCT
SHWRS LTR THIS EVE...AND THE OVRNGT HRS...BUT BY MONDAY MRNG...PROJECTED
INVERSION LVLS ARE LOW ENUF DESPITE UPR TROFG TO REDUCE POPS.

NEVERTHELESS...THE COLD FLOW OFF THE LAKES WL MAINTAIN AN
EXTENSIVE STRATOCU BLANKET ON MONDAY AND TEMPS WL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MID/UPR TROUGH IF PROJECTED TO LIFT OUT QUICKLY AT THE START
OF THIS PERIOD WITH BROAD RIDGING ENSUING OVR MUCH OF THE CONUS.
THE COLD START TO THE WEEK WITH THUS BE GRADUALLY MODERATED BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM.

TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING GFS MOS...ALTHOUGH TWEAKS FOR A GREATER
DIURNAL RANGE IN THE DRY AIRMASS WERE INCLUDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS ABOUT AS QUIET AS CAN BE
EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE REGION. A SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST...BUT OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REIGN SUPREME
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW OVER WARM LAKE ERIE HAS ALLOWED MVFR
STRATOCUMULUS TO DEVELOP ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT SOME IFR
CIGS AT FKL/DUJ...BUT DO NOT THINK THESE LOWER CIGS WILL MAKE IT
INTO OTHER TERMINALS. MAY BE OVERDOING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WITH
VCSH AT FKL/DUJ...BUT CURRENTLY HAVE THIS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SUNRISE. AS WINDS START TO BACK TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER
SUNRISE...CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY IN COVERAGE
ALONG WITH RISE IN HEIGHT. ONCE WINDS GO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVNG IN FROM THE WEST AROUND SUNSET...CIGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENL VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE RMNDR OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220644
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
244 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WHILE
INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME AS LATEST OBSERVATIONS ALIGN WELL
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..


 EARLY EVE UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO FURTHER ADJUST HOURLY TRENDS AS
CDFNT FEATURING A 10 TO 15 DEGREE DEWPOINT DROP HAS ABOUT
COMPLETED A SWEEP OF THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION.

COLD ADVCTN WITH A REINFORCING FRONT WL SPPRT SOME ISOLD TO SCT
SHWRS LTR THIS EVE...AND THE OVRNGT HRS...BUT BY MONDAY MRNG...PROJECTED
INVERSION LVLS ARE LOW ENUF DESPITE UPR TROFG TO REDUCE POPS.

NEVERTHELESS...THE COLD FLOW OFF THE LAKES WL MAINTAIN AN
EXTENSIVE STRATOCU BLANKET ON MONDAY AND TEMPS WL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MID/UPR TROUGH IF PROJECTED TO LIFT OUT QUICKLY AT THE START
OF THIS PERIOD WITH BROAD RIDGING ENSUING OVR MUCH OF THE CONUS.
THE COLD START TO THE WEEK WITH THUS BE GRADUALLY MODERATED BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM.

TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING GFS MOS...ALTHOUGH TWEAKS FOR A GREATER
DIURNAL RANGE IN THE DRY AIRMASS WERE INCLUDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS ABOUT AS QUIET AS CAN BE
EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE REGION. A SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST...BUT OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REIGN SUPREME
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW OVER WARM LAKE ERIE HAS ALLOWED MVFR
STRATOCUMULUS TO DEVELOP ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT SOME IFR
CIGS AT FKL/DUJ...BUT DO NOT THINK THESE LOWER CIGS WILL MAKE IT
INTO OTHER TERMINALS. MAY BE OVERDOING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WITH
VCSH AT FKL/DUJ...BUT CURRENTLY HAVE THIS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SUNRISE. AS WINDS START TO BACK TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER
SUNRISE...CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY IN COVERAGE
ALONG WITH RISE IN HEIGHT. ONCE WINDS GO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVNG IN FROM THE WEST AROUND SUNSET...CIGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENL VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE RMNDR OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220523
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
123 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WHILE
INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME AS LATEST OBSERVATIONS ALIGN WELL
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..


 EARLY EVE UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO FURTHER ADJUST HOURLY TRENDS AS
CDFNT FEATURING A 10 TO 15 DEGREE DEWPOINT DROP HAS ABOUT
COMPLETED A SWEEP OF THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION.

COLD ADVCTN WITH A REINFORCING FRONT WL SPPRT SOME ISOLD TO SCT
SHWRS LTR THIS EVE...AND THE OVRNGT HRS...BUT BY MONDAY MRNG...PROJECTED
INVERSION LVLS ARE LOW ENUF DESPITE UPR TROFG TO REDUCE POPS.

NEVERTHELESS...THE COLD FLOW OFF THE LAKES WL MAINTAIN AN
EXTENSIVE STRATOCU BLANKET ON MONDAY AND TEMPS WL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MID/UPR TROUGH IF PROJECTED TO LIFT OUT QUICKLY AT THE START
OF THIS PERIOD WITH BROAD RIDGING ENSUING OVR MUCH OF THE CONUS.
THE COLD START TO THE WEEK WITH THUS BE GRADUALLY MODERATED BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM.

TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING GFS MOS...ALTHOUGH TWEAKS FOR A GREATER
DIURNAL RANGE IN THE DRY AIRMASS WERE INCLUDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CONT WARMING ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVGS AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPR RIDGE EXPANDS. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF CONTS TO
HINT AT A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING OVR THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...THAT SOLN IS AGAIN OUT OF PHASE WITH THE GFS...AND
PERSISTENCE IN A DRY FORECAST MUST RULE UNDR THE ANTICIPATED RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN IN THE WAKE OF THIS EVENINGS FROPA WL PROMOTE DVLPMT
OF A STRATOCU DECK AS THE EVE PROGRESSES. THAT BLANKET IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST AT MVFR LVLS INTO MONDAY AFTN. BRIEF IFR CLGS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT KFKL AND KDUJ. ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS ARE ALSO
ANTICIPATED AS THE UPR LOW DIGS OVR THE REGION...BUT INVERSION
LVLS LK SUFFICIENTLY LOW BY MONDAY MRNG TO SUPPRESS FURTHER PCPN.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENL VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE RMNDR OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220523
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
123 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WHILE
INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME AS LATEST OBSERVATIONS ALIGN WELL
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..


 EARLY EVE UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO FURTHER ADJUST HOURLY TRENDS AS
CDFNT FEATURING A 10 TO 15 DEGREE DEWPOINT DROP HAS ABOUT
COMPLETED A SWEEP OF THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION.

COLD ADVCTN WITH A REINFORCING FRONT WL SPPRT SOME ISOLD TO SCT
SHWRS LTR THIS EVE...AND THE OVRNGT HRS...BUT BY MONDAY MRNG...PROJECTED
INVERSION LVLS ARE LOW ENUF DESPITE UPR TROFG TO REDUCE POPS.

NEVERTHELESS...THE COLD FLOW OFF THE LAKES WL MAINTAIN AN
EXTENSIVE STRATOCU BLANKET ON MONDAY AND TEMPS WL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MID/UPR TROUGH IF PROJECTED TO LIFT OUT QUICKLY AT THE START
OF THIS PERIOD WITH BROAD RIDGING ENSUING OVR MUCH OF THE CONUS.
THE COLD START TO THE WEEK WITH THUS BE GRADUALLY MODERATED BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM.

TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING GFS MOS...ALTHOUGH TWEAKS FOR A GREATER
DIURNAL RANGE IN THE DRY AIRMASS WERE INCLUDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CONT WARMING ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVGS AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPR RIDGE EXPANDS. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF CONTS TO
HINT AT A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING OVR THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...THAT SOLN IS AGAIN OUT OF PHASE WITH THE GFS...AND
PERSISTENCE IN A DRY FORECAST MUST RULE UNDR THE ANTICIPATED RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN IN THE WAKE OF THIS EVENINGS FROPA WL PROMOTE DVLPMT
OF A STRATOCU DECK AS THE EVE PROGRESSES. THAT BLANKET IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST AT MVFR LVLS INTO MONDAY AFTN. BRIEF IFR CLGS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT KFKL AND KDUJ. ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS ARE ALSO
ANTICIPATED AS THE UPR LOW DIGS OVR THE REGION...BUT INVERSION
LVLS LK SUFFICIENTLY LOW BY MONDAY MRNG TO SUPPRESS FURTHER PCPN.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENL VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE RMNDR OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220121
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
921 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WHILE
INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE LATE EVE UPDATE.

PREVIOUS...
EARLY EVE UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO FURTHER ADJUST HOURLY TRENDS AS
CDFNT FEATURING A 10 TO 15 DEGREE DEWPOINT DROP HAS ABOUT
COMPLETED A SWEEP OF THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION.

COLD ADVCTN WITH A REINFORCING FRONT WL SPPRT SOME ISOLD TO SCT
SHWRS LTR THIS EVE...AND THE OVRNGT HRS...BUT BY MONDAY MRNG...PROJECTED
INVERSION LVLS ARE LOW ENUF DESPITE UPR TROFG TO REDUCE POPS.

NEVERTHELESS...THE COLD FLOW OFF THE LAKES WL MAINTAIN AN
EXTENSIVE STRATOCU BLANKET ON MONDAY AND TEMPS WL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MID/UPR TROUGH IF PROJECTED TO LIFT OUT QUICKLY AT THE START
OF THIS PERIOD WITH BROAD RIDGING ENSUING OVR MUCH OF THE CONUS.
THE COLD START TO THE WEEK WITH THUS BE GRADUALLY MODERATED BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM.

TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING GFS MOS...ALTHOUGH TWEAKS FOR A GREATER
DIURNAL RANGE IN THE DRY AIRMASS WERE INCLUDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CONT WARMING ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVGS AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPR RIDGE EXPANDS. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF CONTS TO
HINT AT A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING OVR THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...THAT SOLN IS AGAIN OUT OF PHASE WITH THE GFS...AND
PERSISTENCE IN A DRY FORECAST MUST RULE UNDR THE ANTICIPATED RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN IN THE WAKE OF THIS EVENINGS FROPA WL PROMOTE DVLPMT
OF A STRATOCU DECK AS THE EVE PROGRESSES. THAT BLANKET IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST AT MVFR LVLS INTO MONDAY AFTN. BRIEF IFR CLGS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT KFKL AND KDUJ. ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS ARE ALSO
ANTICIPATED AS THE UPR LOW DIGS OVR THE REGION...BUT INVERSION
LVLS LK SUFFICIENTLY LOW BY MONDAY MRNG TO SUPPRESS FURTHER PCPN.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENL VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE RMNDR OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220121
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
921 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WHILE
INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE LATE EVE UPDATE.

PREVIOUS...
EARLY EVE UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO FURTHER ADJUST HOURLY TRENDS AS
CDFNT FEATURING A 10 TO 15 DEGREE DEWPOINT DROP HAS ABOUT
COMPLETED A SWEEP OF THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION.

COLD ADVCTN WITH A REINFORCING FRONT WL SPPRT SOME ISOLD TO SCT
SHWRS LTR THIS EVE...AND THE OVRNGT HRS...BUT BY MONDAY MRNG...PROJECTED
INVERSION LVLS ARE LOW ENUF DESPITE UPR TROFG TO REDUCE POPS.

NEVERTHELESS...THE COLD FLOW OFF THE LAKES WL MAINTAIN AN
EXTENSIVE STRATOCU BLANKET ON MONDAY AND TEMPS WL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MID/UPR TROUGH IF PROJECTED TO LIFT OUT QUICKLY AT THE START
OF THIS PERIOD WITH BROAD RIDGING ENSUING OVR MUCH OF THE CONUS.
THE COLD START TO THE WEEK WITH THUS BE GRADUALLY MODERATED BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM.

TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING GFS MOS...ALTHOUGH TWEAKS FOR A GREATER
DIURNAL RANGE IN THE DRY AIRMASS WERE INCLUDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CONT WARMING ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVGS AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPR RIDGE EXPANDS. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF CONTS TO
HINT AT A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING OVR THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...THAT SOLN IS AGAIN OUT OF PHASE WITH THE GFS...AND
PERSISTENCE IN A DRY FORECAST MUST RULE UNDR THE ANTICIPATED RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN IN THE WAKE OF THIS EVENINGS FROPA WL PROMOTE DVLPMT
OF A STRATOCU DECK AS THE EVE PROGRESSES. THAT BLANKET IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST AT MVFR LVLS INTO MONDAY AFTN. BRIEF IFR CLGS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT KFKL AND KDUJ. ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS ARE ALSO
ANTICIPATED AS THE UPR LOW DIGS OVR THE REGION...BUT INVERSION
LVLS LK SUFFICIENTLY LOW BY MONDAY MRNG TO SUPPRESS FURTHER PCPN.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENL VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE RMNDR OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 212321
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
721 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WHILE
INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
EARLY EVE UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO FURTHER ADJUST HOURLY TRENDS AS
CDFNT FEATURING A 10 TO 15 DEGREE DEWPOINT DROP HAS ABOUT
COMPLETED A SWEEP OF THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION.

COLD ADVCTN WITH A REINFORCING FRONT WL SPPRT SOME ISOLD TO SCT
SHWRS LTR THIS EVE...AND THE OVRNGT HRS...BUT BY MONDAY MRNG...PROJECTED
INVERSION LVLS ARE LOW ENUF DESPITE UPR TROFG TO REDUCE POPS.

NEVERTHELESS...THE COLD FLOW OFF THE LAKES WL MAINTAIN AN
EXTENSIVE STRATOCU BLANKET ON MONDAY AND TEMPS WL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MID/UPR TROUGH IF PROJECTED TO LIFT OUT QUICKLY AT THE START
OF THIS PERIOD WITH BROAD RIDGING ENSUING OVR MUCH OF THE CONUS.
THE COLD START TO THE WEEK WITH THUS BE GRADUALLY MODERATED BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM.

TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING GFS MOS...ALTHOUGH TWEAKS FOR A GREATER
DIURNAL RANGE IN THE DRY AIRMASS WERE INCLUDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CONT WARMING ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVGS AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPR RIDGE EXPANDS. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF CONTS TO
HINT AT A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING OVR THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...THAT SOLN IS AGAIN OUT OF PHASE WITH THE GFS...AND
PERSISTENCE IN A DRY FORECAST MUST RULE UNDR THE ANTICIPATED RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN IN THE WAKE OF THIS EVENINGS FROPA WL PROMOTE DVLPMT
OF A STRATOCU DECK AS THE EVE PROGRESSES. THAT BLANKET IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST AT MVFR LVLS INTO MONDAY AFTN. BRIEF IFR CLGS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT KFKL AND KDUJ. ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS ARE ALSO
ANTICIPATED AS THE UPR LOW DIGS OVR THE REGION...BUT INVERSION
LVLS LK SUFFICIENTLY LOW BY MONDAY MRNG TO SUPPRESS FURTHER PCPN.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENL VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE RMNDR OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 212321
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
721 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WHILE
INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
EARLY EVE UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO FURTHER ADJUST HOURLY TRENDS AS
CDFNT FEATURING A 10 TO 15 DEGREE DEWPOINT DROP HAS ABOUT
COMPLETED A SWEEP OF THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION.

COLD ADVCTN WITH A REINFORCING FRONT WL SPPRT SOME ISOLD TO SCT
SHWRS LTR THIS EVE...AND THE OVRNGT HRS...BUT BY MONDAY MRNG...PROJECTED
INVERSION LVLS ARE LOW ENUF DESPITE UPR TROFG TO REDUCE POPS.

NEVERTHELESS...THE COLD FLOW OFF THE LAKES WL MAINTAIN AN
EXTENSIVE STRATOCU BLANKET ON MONDAY AND TEMPS WL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MID/UPR TROUGH IF PROJECTED TO LIFT OUT QUICKLY AT THE START
OF THIS PERIOD WITH BROAD RIDGING ENSUING OVR MUCH OF THE CONUS.
THE COLD START TO THE WEEK WITH THUS BE GRADUALLY MODERATED BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM.

TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING GFS MOS...ALTHOUGH TWEAKS FOR A GREATER
DIURNAL RANGE IN THE DRY AIRMASS WERE INCLUDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CONT WARMING ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVGS AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPR RIDGE EXPANDS. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF CONTS TO
HINT AT A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING OVR THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...THAT SOLN IS AGAIN OUT OF PHASE WITH THE GFS...AND
PERSISTENCE IN A DRY FORECAST MUST RULE UNDR THE ANTICIPATED RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN IN THE WAKE OF THIS EVENINGS FROPA WL PROMOTE DVLPMT
OF A STRATOCU DECK AS THE EVE PROGRESSES. THAT BLANKET IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST AT MVFR LVLS INTO MONDAY AFTN. BRIEF IFR CLGS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT KFKL AND KDUJ. ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS ARE ALSO
ANTICIPATED AS THE UPR LOW DIGS OVR THE REGION...BUT INVERSION
LVLS LK SUFFICIENTLY LOW BY MONDAY MRNG TO SUPPRESS FURTHER PCPN.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENL VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE RMNDR OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 212220
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
620 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WHILE
INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
EARLY EVE UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO FURTHER ADJUST HOURLY TRENDS AS
CDFNT FEATURING A 10 TO 15 DEGREE DEWPOINT DROP HAS ABOUT
COMPLETED A SWEEP OF THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION.

COLD ADVCTN WITH A REINFORCING FRONT WL SPPRT SOME ISOLD TO SCT
SHWRS LTR THIS EVE...AND THE OVRNGT HRS...BUT BY MONDAY MRNG...PROJECTED
INVERSION LVLS ARE LOW ENUF DESPITE UPR TROFG TO REDUCE POPS.

NEVERTHELESS...THE COLD FLOW OFF THE LAKES WL MAINTAIN AN
EXTENSIVE STRATOCU BLANKET ON MONDAY AND TEMPS WL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MID/UPR TROUGH IF PROJECTED TO LIFT OUT QUICKLY AT THE START
OF THIS PERIOD WITH BROAD RIDGING ENSUING OVR MUCH OF THE CONUS.
THE COLD START TO THE WEEK WITH THUS BE GRADUALLY MODERATED BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM.

TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING GFS MOS...ALTHOUGH TWEAKS FOR A GREATER
DIURNAL RANGE IN THE DRY AIRMASS WERE INCLUDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CONT WARMING ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVGS AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPR RIDGE EXPANDS. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF CONTS TO
HINT AT A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING OVR THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...THAT SOLN IS AGAIN OUT OF PHASE WITH THE GFS...AND
PERSISTENCE IN A DRY FORECAST MUST RULE UNDR THE ANTICIPATED RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN IN THE WAKE OF THIS EVENINGS FROPA WL PROMOTE DVLPMT
OF A STRATOCU DECK AS THE EVE PROGRESSES. THAT BLANKET IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST AT MVFR LVLS INTO MONDAY AFTN. ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS ARE
ALSO ANTICIPATED AS THE UPR LOW DIGS OVR THE REGION...BUT
INVERSION LVLS LK SUFFICIENTLY LOW BY MONDAY MRNG TO SUPPRESS
FURTHER PCPN.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENL VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE RMNDR OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 212220
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
620 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WHILE
INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
EARLY EVE UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO FURTHER ADJUST HOURLY TRENDS AS
CDFNT FEATURING A 10 TO 15 DEGREE DEWPOINT DROP HAS ABOUT
COMPLETED A SWEEP OF THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION.

COLD ADVCTN WITH A REINFORCING FRONT WL SPPRT SOME ISOLD TO SCT
SHWRS LTR THIS EVE...AND THE OVRNGT HRS...BUT BY MONDAY MRNG...PROJECTED
INVERSION LVLS ARE LOW ENUF DESPITE UPR TROFG TO REDUCE POPS.

NEVERTHELESS...THE COLD FLOW OFF THE LAKES WL MAINTAIN AN
EXTENSIVE STRATOCU BLANKET ON MONDAY AND TEMPS WL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MID/UPR TROUGH IF PROJECTED TO LIFT OUT QUICKLY AT THE START
OF THIS PERIOD WITH BROAD RIDGING ENSUING OVR MUCH OF THE CONUS.
THE COLD START TO THE WEEK WITH THUS BE GRADUALLY MODERATED BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM.

TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING GFS MOS...ALTHOUGH TWEAKS FOR A GREATER
DIURNAL RANGE IN THE DRY AIRMASS WERE INCLUDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CONT WARMING ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVGS AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPR RIDGE EXPANDS. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF CONTS TO
HINT AT A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING OVR THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...THAT SOLN IS AGAIN OUT OF PHASE WITH THE GFS...AND
PERSISTENCE IN A DRY FORECAST MUST RULE UNDR THE ANTICIPATED RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN IN THE WAKE OF THIS EVENINGS FROPA WL PROMOTE DVLPMT
OF A STRATOCU DECK AS THE EVE PROGRESSES. THAT BLANKET IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST AT MVFR LVLS INTO MONDAY AFTN. ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS ARE
ALSO ANTICIPATED AS THE UPR LOW DIGS OVR THE REGION...BUT
INVERSION LVLS LK SUFFICIENTLY LOW BY MONDAY MRNG TO SUPPRESS
FURTHER PCPN.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENL VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE RMNDR OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 212049
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
449 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WHILE
INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STRONG CDFNT WL COMPLETE A SWEEP OF THE UPR OH REGION BY EARLY
EVE WITH DRY AIR ENCROACHMENT AND STRONG SHEAR INHIBITIING
UPDRAFTS FOR TSTMS.

COLD ADVCTN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WL INTIALLY SPPRT SOME ISOLD TO
SCT SHWRS VIA A SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MIXING LVL...BUT BY MONDAY
DAYBREAK...PROJECTED INVERSION LVLS ARE LOW ENUF DESPITE UPR TROFG
TO ELIMINATE POPS AND DOWNWARD TREND WAS THUS ADJUSTED.

NEVERTHELESS...THE COLD FLOW OFF THE LAKES WL MAINTAIN AN
EXTENSIVE STRATOCU BLANKET ON MONDAY AND TEMPS WL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MID/UPR TROUGH IF PROJECTED TO LIFT OUT QUICKLY AT THE START
OF THIS PERIOD WITH BROAD RIDGING ENSUING OVR MUCH OF THE CONUS.
THE COLD START TO THE WEEK WITH THUS BE GRADUALLY MODERATED BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM.

TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING GFS MOS...ALTHOUGH TWEAKS FOR A GREATER
DIURNAL RANGE IN THE DRY AIRMASS WERE INCLUDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CONT WARMING ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVGS AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPR RIDGE EXPANDS. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF CONTS TO
HINT AT A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING OVR THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...THAT SOLN IS AGAIN OUT OF PHASE WITH THE GFS...AND
PERSISTENCE IN A DRY FORECAST MUST RULE UNDR THE ANTICIPATED RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WL PROMOTE DVLPMT OF A STRATOCU
DECK AS THE EVE PROGRESSES. THAT BLANKET IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT
MVFR LVLS INTO MONDAY AFTN. ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS ARE ALSO
ANTICIPATED AS THE UPR LOW DIGS OVR THE REGION...BUT INVERSION
LVLS LK SUFFICIENTLY LOW BY MONDAY DAYBREAK TO SUPPRESS FURTHER PCPN.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENL VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE RMNDR OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 212049
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
449 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WHILE
INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STRONG CDFNT WL COMPLETE A SWEEP OF THE UPR OH REGION BY EARLY
EVE WITH DRY AIR ENCROACHMENT AND STRONG SHEAR INHIBITIING
UPDRAFTS FOR TSTMS.

COLD ADVCTN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WL INTIALLY SPPRT SOME ISOLD TO
SCT SHWRS VIA A SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MIXING LVL...BUT BY MONDAY
DAYBREAK...PROJECTED INVERSION LVLS ARE LOW ENUF DESPITE UPR TROFG
TO ELIMINATE POPS AND DOWNWARD TREND WAS THUS ADJUSTED.

NEVERTHELESS...THE COLD FLOW OFF THE LAKES WL MAINTAIN AN
EXTENSIVE STRATOCU BLANKET ON MONDAY AND TEMPS WL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MID/UPR TROUGH IF PROJECTED TO LIFT OUT QUICKLY AT THE START
OF THIS PERIOD WITH BROAD RIDGING ENSUING OVR MUCH OF THE CONUS.
THE COLD START TO THE WEEK WITH THUS BE GRADUALLY MODERATED BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM.

TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING GFS MOS...ALTHOUGH TWEAKS FOR A GREATER
DIURNAL RANGE IN THE DRY AIRMASS WERE INCLUDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CONT WARMING ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVGS AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPR RIDGE EXPANDS. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF CONTS TO
HINT AT A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING OVR THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...THAT SOLN IS AGAIN OUT OF PHASE WITH THE GFS...AND
PERSISTENCE IN A DRY FORECAST MUST RULE UNDR THE ANTICIPATED RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WL PROMOTE DVLPMT OF A STRATOCU
DECK AS THE EVE PROGRESSES. THAT BLANKET IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT
MVFR LVLS INTO MONDAY AFTN. ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS ARE ALSO
ANTICIPATED AS THE UPR LOW DIGS OVR THE REGION...BUT INVERSION
LVLS LK SUFFICIENTLY LOW BY MONDAY DAYBREAK TO SUPPRESS FURTHER PCPN.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENL VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE RMNDR OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211818
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
218 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT TODAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
ATTM...CDFNT IS LOCATED FROM SERN MI TO CNTRL IN WHILE PRE-FRONTAL
TROF STRETCHES FROM NR KROC TO KFKL TO KZZV. THE LATTER FEATURE WILL
CONT TO ADVC ESEWD THRU TDA AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ANY PCPN
THIS AFTN. QUALITY INSOLATION IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE SFC
TROF...WITH VSBL SATELLITE INDICATING CNVCTV CLD DVLPMT ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE SFC TROF.

H5 TROF WILL BCM INCRGLY NEUTRALLY- TO NEGATIVELY-TILTED TDA AS
JET STRENGTHENS...LEADING CDFNT TO OVERTAKE SFC TROF LATE THIS
AFTN. INSOLATION...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AND MSTR AHEAD OF THE
BNDRY SHOULD FOSTER INCRG CHCS FOR SHWRS AND TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN.
MID-LVL CAP WILL LMT DEPTH OF ANY CNVCTN...BUT LOW-LVL WIND FIELD
IS QUITE STRONG...SO GUSTY/DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN THE DPR STORMS.

PCPN SHOULD VACATE THE FCST AREA BY 00-01 UTC AS COLD AIR ADVCTN
INCRS. STRATOCU SHOULD BCM ABUNDANT LATE TNGT AND LAKE-EFFECT
SHWRS WILL BE PSBL AS FLOW BCMS INCRGLY NWLY IN THE WAKE OF FROPA.
CLDS XPCD TO LINGER LATE TNGT THRU MUCH OF MON UNTIL SUBSIDENCE
STRENGTHENS EARLY MON EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
H500 TROUGH LIFTS OUT QUICKLY AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD.
THEN...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE TAKES OVER...AND A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
DRIFTS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH TIME.
WITH DRY AIR DOMINATING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...CLOUDS WILL
BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN ONCE CLOUDS DISSIPATE MONDAY EVENING. THE
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH MAYBE A FEW LAKE-INDUCED CU...AND ALONG THE EASTERN RIDGES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN WEAK SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW AROUND THE
RETREATING SURFACE HIGH.

FOR TEMPERATURES...TRIED TO INCLUDE A BIT WIDER DIURNAL RANGE THAN
INDICATED BY MOS GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS EXPECTED. READINGS WILL BE
QUITE SEASONABLE...PERHAPS TRENDING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH TIME.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES...BUT THINK
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN A TOUCH TOO HIGH FOR MUCH OF A FROST CONCERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
LONG-TERM PERIOD AS WELL. THE ECMWF DOES HINT AT A WEAK INVERTED
TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST...WHICH COULD PUSH
MOISTURE A LITTLE CLOSER. THE GFS IS THE DIRECT OPPOSITE...WITH A
STRONGER SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING DOWN THE COAST AND KEEPING SAID
MOISTURE WELL OFF TO THE EAST. AN HPC-SUGGESTED COMPROMISE WOULD
STILL KEEP THE CWA WELL INTO THE DRY AIR. THUS...NO CHANGES TO THE
GRIDS FROM THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWRS AND A FEW TSTMS WILL DVLP ALONG AND AHEAD OF SFC TROF
STRETCHING FROM NEAR KROC TO KFKL TO KZZV. THIS BNDRY WILL SHIFT
EWD THIS AFTN AND WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY AN ADVCG CDFNT BY EARLY
THIS EVE. DPR CNVCTN WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KT. TIMING WILL BE DURG 18-23 UTC FROM W TO
E. GENL VFR CONDS XPCD THEREAFTER.

COLD AIR ADVCTN WILL PROMOTE DVLPMT OF STRATOCU DECK AT 1.5-2.5
KFT AFTER 04-05 UTC. LAKE-EFFECT SHWRS ALSO CAN BE XPCD NEAR KFKL
AND KDUJ LATE TNGT. ALTHOUGH PCPN WILL WANE MON MRNG...MVFR CLDS
NOT XPCD TO DECR UNTIL LATE MON AFTN.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLDS WILL CLR QUICKLY MON EVE AS HIPRES DOMINATES. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A DRY
PATTERN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

KRAMAR/56





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211818
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
218 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT TODAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
ATTM...CDFNT IS LOCATED FROM SERN MI TO CNTRL IN WHILE PRE-FRONTAL
TROF STRETCHES FROM NR KROC TO KFKL TO KZZV. THE LATTER FEATURE WILL
CONT TO ADVC ESEWD THRU TDA AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ANY PCPN
THIS AFTN. QUALITY INSOLATION IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE SFC
TROF...WITH VSBL SATELLITE INDICATING CNVCTV CLD DVLPMT ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE SFC TROF.

H5 TROF WILL BCM INCRGLY NEUTRALLY- TO NEGATIVELY-TILTED TDA AS
JET STRENGTHENS...LEADING CDFNT TO OVERTAKE SFC TROF LATE THIS
AFTN. INSOLATION...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AND MSTR AHEAD OF THE
BNDRY SHOULD FOSTER INCRG CHCS FOR SHWRS AND TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN.
MID-LVL CAP WILL LMT DEPTH OF ANY CNVCTN...BUT LOW-LVL WIND FIELD
IS QUITE STRONG...SO GUSTY/DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN THE DPR STORMS.

PCPN SHOULD VACATE THE FCST AREA BY 00-01 UTC AS COLD AIR ADVCTN
INCRS. STRATOCU SHOULD BCM ABUNDANT LATE TNGT AND LAKE-EFFECT
SHWRS WILL BE PSBL AS FLOW BCMS INCRGLY NWLY IN THE WAKE OF FROPA.
CLDS XPCD TO LINGER LATE TNGT THRU MUCH OF MON UNTIL SUBSIDENCE
STRENGTHENS EARLY MON EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
H500 TROUGH LIFTS OUT QUICKLY AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD.
THEN...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE TAKES OVER...AND A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
DRIFTS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH TIME.
WITH DRY AIR DOMINATING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...CLOUDS WILL
BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN ONCE CLOUDS DISSIPATE MONDAY EVENING. THE
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH MAYBE A FEW LAKE-INDUCED CU...AND ALONG THE EASTERN RIDGES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN WEAK SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW AROUND THE
RETREATING SURFACE HIGH.

FOR TEMPERATURES...TRIED TO INCLUDE A BIT WIDER DIURNAL RANGE THAN
INDICATED BY MOS GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS EXPECTED. READINGS WILL BE
QUITE SEASONABLE...PERHAPS TRENDING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH TIME.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES...BUT THINK
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN A TOUCH TOO HIGH FOR MUCH OF A FROST CONCERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
LONG-TERM PERIOD AS WELL. THE ECMWF DOES HINT AT A WEAK INVERTED
TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST...WHICH COULD PUSH
MOISTURE A LITTLE CLOSER. THE GFS IS THE DIRECT OPPOSITE...WITH A
STRONGER SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING DOWN THE COAST AND KEEPING SAID
MOISTURE WELL OFF TO THE EAST. AN HPC-SUGGESTED COMPROMISE WOULD
STILL KEEP THE CWA WELL INTO THE DRY AIR. THUS...NO CHANGES TO THE
GRIDS FROM THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWRS AND A FEW TSTMS WILL DVLP ALONG AND AHEAD OF SFC TROF
STRETCHING FROM NEAR KROC TO KFKL TO KZZV. THIS BNDRY WILL SHIFT
EWD THIS AFTN AND WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY AN ADVCG CDFNT BY EARLY
THIS EVE. DPR CNVCTN WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KT. TIMING WILL BE DURG 18-23 UTC FROM W TO
E. GENL VFR CONDS XPCD THEREAFTER.

COLD AIR ADVCTN WILL PROMOTE DVLPMT OF STRATOCU DECK AT 1.5-2.5
KFT AFTER 04-05 UTC. LAKE-EFFECT SHWRS ALSO CAN BE XPCD NEAR KFKL
AND KDUJ LATE TNGT. ALTHOUGH PCPN WILL WANE MON MRNG...MVFR CLDS
NOT XPCD TO DECR UNTIL LATE MON AFTN.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLDS WILL CLR QUICKLY MON EVE AS HIPRES DOMINATES. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A DRY
PATTERN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

KRAMAR/56






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211712
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
112 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT TODAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINE OF SHWRS CURRENTLY MOVG ACRS ERN PORTION OF FCST AREA WILL
CONT EWD INTO CNTRL PA BY NOON. POPS WERE INCRD TO REFLECT THIS
LINE...BUT WERE DECRD QUICKLY THEREAFTER TO REFLECT THE PCPN LULL
XPCD IN ITS WAKE.

ATTM...CDFNT IS LOCATED FROM CNTRL MI TO NRN IN/NRN IL WHILE PRE-
FRONTAL TROF IS IN SERN IN TO N-CNTRL OH. THE LATTER FEATURE WILL
CONT TO ADVC ESEWD THRU TDA AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ANY PCPN
THIS AFTN. APART FROM A BAND OF BKN-OVC CLDS IN WRN PA THIS
MRNG...QUALITY INSOLATION IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE SFC TROF...WITH
VSBL SATELLITE INDICATING CNVCTV CLD DVLPMT IN MUCH OF OH.

H5 TROF WILL BCM INCRGLY NEUTRALLY- TO NEGATIVELY-TILTED TDA AS
JET STRENGTHENS...LEADING CDFNT TO OVERTAKE SFC TROF LATE THIS
AFTN. INSOLATION...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AND MSTR AHEAD OF THE
BNDRY SHOULD FOSTER INCRG CHCS FOR SHWRS AND TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN.
MID-LVL CAP MAY LMT DEPTH OF ANY CNVCTN...BUT LOW-LVL WIND FIELD
IS QUITE STRONG...SO GUSTY/DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN THE DPR STORMS.

PCPN SHOULD VACATE THE FCST AREA BY 00-01 UTC AS COLD AIR ADVCTN
INCRS. STRATOCU SHOULD BCM ABUNDANT LATE TNGT AND LAKE-EFFECT
SHWRS WILL BE PSBL IN NRN ZONES AS FLOW BCMS INCRGLY NWLY. CLDS
XPCD TO LINGER LATE TNGT THRU MUCH OF MON UNTIL SUBSIDENCE
STRENGTHENS EARLY MON EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
H500 TROUGH LIFTS OUT QUICKLY AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD.
THEN...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE TAKES OVER AND A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
DRIFTS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH TIME.
WITH DRY AIR DOMINATING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...CLOUDS WILL
BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN ONCE CLOUDS DISSIPATE MONDAY EVENING. THE
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH MAYBE A FEW LAKE-INDUCED CU...AND ALONG THE EASTERN RIDGES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN WEAK SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW AROUND THE
RETREATING SURFACE HIGH.

FOR TEMPERATURES...TRIED TO INCLUDE A BIT WIDER DIURNAL RANGE THAN
INDICATED BY MOS GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS EXPECTED. READINGS WILL BE
QUITE SEASONABLE...PERHAPS TRENDING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH TIME.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES...BUT THINK
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN A TOUCH TOO HIGH FOR MUCH OF A FROST CONCERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
LONG-TERM PERIOD AS WELL. THE ECMWF DOES HINT AT A WEAK INVERTED
TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WHICH COULD PUSH
MOISTURE A LITTLE CLOSER. THE GFS IS THE DIRECT OPPOSITE...WITH A
STRONGER SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING DOWN THE COAST AND KEEPING SAID
MOISTURE WELL OFF TO THE EAST. AN HPC-SUGGESTED COMPROMISE WOULD
STILL KEEP THE CWA WELL INTO THE DRY AIR. THUS...NO CHANGES TO THE
GRIDS FROM THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LINGERING LINE OF SHWRS WILL VACATE QUICKLY AND WILL PRODUCE ONLY
LMTD MVFR RESTRICTIONS AND LCL WIND GUSTS TO 25KT.

RETURN TO VFR CONDS XPCD LATE THIS MRNG BFR A SECOND LINE OF SHWRS
AND TSTMS DVLPS MID-LATE AFTN ALONG ADVCG CDFNT. THIS LINE MAY
PRODUCE STRONGER WIND GUSTS...QUITE PSBLY STRONG TO SVR. TIMING
WILL BE DURG 20Z-24Z FROM W TO E. GENL VFR CONDS XPCD THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS BETWEEN 3-5KFT AGL WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER A DRY PATTERN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211449 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1049 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT TODAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINE OF SHWRS CURRENTLY MOVG ACRS ERN PORTION OF FCST AREA WILL
CONT EWD INTO CNTRL PA BY NOON. POPS WERE INCRD TO REFLECT THIS
LINE...BUT WERE DECRD QUICKLY THEREAFTER TO REFLECT THE PCPN LULL
XPCD IN ITS WAKE.

ATTM...CDFNT IS LOCATED FROM CNTRL MI TO NRN IN/NRN IL WHILE PRE-
FRONTAL TROF IS IN SERN IN TO N-CNTRL OH. THE LATTER FEATURE WILL
CONT TO ADVC ESEWD THRU TDA AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ANY PCPN
THIS AFTN. APART FROM A BAND OF BKN-OVC CLDS IN WRN PA THIS
MRNG...QUALITY INSOLATION IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE SFC TROF...WITH
VSBL SATELLITE INDICATING CNVCTV CLD DVLPMT IN MUCH OF OH.

H5 TROF WILL BCM INCRGLY NEUTRALLY- TO NEGATIVELY-TILTED TDA AS
JET STRENGTHENS...LEADING CDFNT TO OVERTAKE SFC TROF LATE THIS
AFTN. INSOLATION...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AND MSTR AHEAD OF THE
BNDRY SHOULD FOSTER INCRG CHCS FOR SHWRS AND TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN.
MID-LVL CAP MAY LMT DEPTH OF ANY CNVCTN...BUT LOW-LVL WIND FIELD
IS QUITE STRONG...SO GUSTY/DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN THE DPR STORMS.

PCPN SHOULD VACATE THE FCST AREA BY 00-01 UTC AS COLD AIR ADVCTN
INCRS. STRATOCU SHOULD BCM ABUNDANT LATE TNGT AND LAKE-EFFECT
SHWRS WILL BE PSBL IN NRN ZONES AS FLOW BCMS INCRGLY NWLY. CLDS
XPCD TO LINGER LATE TNGT THRU MUCH OF MON UNTIL SUBSIDENCE
STRENGTHENS EARLY MON EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD AIR WILL QUICKLY RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE ENTIRE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SHIFTS TOWARD THE EAST COAST.

WAA WILL KICK IN MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR.

SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY AND COMFORTABLE
DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY AND SEASONABLE PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING LINE OF SHWRS WILL VACATE QUICKLY AND WILL PRODUCE ONLY
LMTD MVFR RESTRICTIONS AND LCL WIND GUSTS TO 25KT.

RETURN TO VFR CONDS XPCD LATE THIS MRNG BFR A SECOND LINE OF SHWRS
AND TSTMS DVLPS MID-LATE AFTN ALONG ADVCG CDFNT. THIS LINE MAY
PRODUCE STRONGER WIND GUSTS...QUITE PSBLY STRONG TO SVR. TIMING
WILL BE DURG 20Z-24Z FROM W TO E. GENL VFR CONDS XPCD THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS BETWEEN 3-5KFT AGL WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER A DRY PATTERN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KRAMAR







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211449 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1049 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT TODAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINE OF SHWRS CURRENTLY MOVG ACRS ERN PORTION OF FCST AREA WILL
CONT EWD INTO CNTRL PA BY NOON. POPS WERE INCRD TO REFLECT THIS
LINE...BUT WERE DECRD QUICKLY THEREAFTER TO REFLECT THE PCPN LULL
XPCD IN ITS WAKE.

ATTM...CDFNT IS LOCATED FROM CNTRL MI TO NRN IN/NRN IL WHILE PRE-
FRONTAL TROF IS IN SERN IN TO N-CNTRL OH. THE LATTER FEATURE WILL
CONT TO ADVC ESEWD THRU TDA AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ANY PCPN
THIS AFTN. APART FROM A BAND OF BKN-OVC CLDS IN WRN PA THIS
MRNG...QUALITY INSOLATION IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE SFC TROF...WITH
VSBL SATELLITE INDICATING CNVCTV CLD DVLPMT IN MUCH OF OH.

H5 TROF WILL BCM INCRGLY NEUTRALLY- TO NEGATIVELY-TILTED TDA AS
JET STRENGTHENS...LEADING CDFNT TO OVERTAKE SFC TROF LATE THIS
AFTN. INSOLATION...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AND MSTR AHEAD OF THE
BNDRY SHOULD FOSTER INCRG CHCS FOR SHWRS AND TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN.
MID-LVL CAP MAY LMT DEPTH OF ANY CNVCTN...BUT LOW-LVL WIND FIELD
IS QUITE STRONG...SO GUSTY/DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN THE DPR STORMS.

PCPN SHOULD VACATE THE FCST AREA BY 00-01 UTC AS COLD AIR ADVCTN
INCRS. STRATOCU SHOULD BCM ABUNDANT LATE TNGT AND LAKE-EFFECT
SHWRS WILL BE PSBL IN NRN ZONES AS FLOW BCMS INCRGLY NWLY. CLDS
XPCD TO LINGER LATE TNGT THRU MUCH OF MON UNTIL SUBSIDENCE
STRENGTHENS EARLY MON EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD AIR WILL QUICKLY RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE ENTIRE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SHIFTS TOWARD THE EAST COAST.

WAA WILL KICK IN MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR.

SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY AND COMFORTABLE
DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY AND SEASONABLE PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING LINE OF SHWRS WILL VACATE QUICKLY AND WILL PRODUCE ONLY
LMTD MVFR RESTRICTIONS AND LCL WIND GUSTS TO 25KT.

RETURN TO VFR CONDS XPCD LATE THIS MRNG BFR A SECOND LINE OF SHWRS
AND TSTMS DVLPS MID-LATE AFTN ALONG ADVCG CDFNT. THIS LINE MAY
PRODUCE STRONGER WIND GUSTS...QUITE PSBLY STRONG TO SVR. TIMING
WILL BE DURG 20Z-24Z FROM W TO E. GENL VFR CONDS XPCD THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS BETWEEN 3-5KFT AGL WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER A DRY PATTERN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KRAMAR






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211254 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
854 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
FCST WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT MORE AGGRESSIVELY THE CURRENT LINE OF
SHWRS CROSSING FCST AREA. A LULL IN CNVCTN IS XPCD LATE THIS MRNG.

A LINE OF SHWRS AND TSTMS XPCD TO DVLP AGAIN LATER THIS AFTN ALONG
ADVCG CDFNT AS H5 JET DIGS FURTHER AND SHRTWV TROF ACQUIRES
NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE TILT. POPS WERE INCRD TO REFLECT CURRENT
EXPECTATIONS. PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

STILL CONCERNED OVER THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LATE TODAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WIND FIELD IS
IMPRESSIVE AND THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
NAM IS CLEARLY THE STRONGEST WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES COMPARED TO
OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS. THIS LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT THE NAM
MAY BE ON ITS OWN WITH ITS DEPICTION OF THE SITUATION SO WILL LEAN
AWAY FROM IT. ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. WITH MIXING HEIGHTS RISING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...COULD STILL SEE STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITHOUT
CONVECTION. OTHER LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND THE
RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. FOR A NAM SOLUTION TO
COME TO FRUITION...WOULD NEED TO SEE CONVECTION FIRE AND GROW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES ALONG THE FRONT AND THEN SUSTAIN ITSELF...THANKS
TO THE HIGH SHEAR VALUES IN ITS SOLUTION. THE OTHER OPERATIONAL
MODELS ARE NOT IN TOTAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. FORECAST
WILL SHOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND THEN SHOWERS/STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. HAVE INCREASED WIND GUSTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

FRONT WILL PICK UP SPEED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WITH THE FRONT WILL END IN THE EVENING OVER
THE SOUTH. STRONG CAA WILL FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF THE BOUNDARY AS
THE TROUGH AXIS MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. 85H TEMPS WILL
DROP SOME 6-8 DEGREES SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW VEERS TO THE
NORTHWEST. EXPECT A LARGE AREA OF STRTOCU TO QUICKLY COVER THE
REGION. ITS POSSIBLE...WITH THE COLDER AIR AND NORTHWEST FLOW...
SHOWERS COULD REDEVELOP...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTH AND RIDGES.

HEART OF THE COLD AIR SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION MONDAY. EXPECT
THE STRATOCU DECK TO REMAIN IN PLACE. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING A THIN LAYER OF SATURATION WHICH WOULD LIKELY PREVENT
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ON MONDAY. NOTICEABLY COLDER 85H TEMP
FORECAST MONDAY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WILL NECESSITATE
THE LOWERING OF TEMPS ON MONDAY. IF LATEST MODEL OUTPUT IS
CORRECT...HIGHS MONDAY COULD BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

COLD AIR WILL QUICKLY RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
ENTIRE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SHIFTS TOWARD THE EAST COAST.

WAA WILL KICK IN MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR.

SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY AND COMFORTABLE
DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY AND SEASONABLE PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINE OF SHWRS ADVCG ACRS RGN THIS MRNG...LKLY PROVIDING BRIEF
IMPACTS TO KFKL/KDUJ. SCT CVRG XPCD SWD NEAR KPIT/KAGC/KBVI/KHLG...
BUT THESE SHWRS WILL VACATE QUICKLY AND WILL PRODUCE ONLY LMTD
MVFR RESTRICTIONS AND LCL WIND GUSTS TO 25KT.

RETURN TO VFR CONDS XPCD LATE THIS MRNG BFR A SECOND LINE OF SHWRS
AND TSTMS DVLPS MID-LATE AFTN ALONG ADVCG CDFNT. THIS LINE MAY
PRODUCE STRONGER WIND GUSTS...QUITE PSBLY STRONG TO SVR. TIMING
WILL BE DURG 20Z-24Z FROM W TO E. GENL VFR CONDS XPCD THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS BETWEEN 3-5KFT AGL WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER A DRY PATTERN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KRAMAR






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211254 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
854 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
FCST WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT MORE AGGRESSIVELY THE CURRENT LINE OF
SHWRS CROSSING FCST AREA. A LULL IN CNVCTN IS XPCD LATE THIS MRNG.

A LINE OF SHWRS AND TSTMS XPCD TO DVLP AGAIN LATER THIS AFTN ALONG
ADVCG CDFNT AS H5 JET DIGS FURTHER AND SHRTWV TROF ACQUIRES
NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE TILT. POPS WERE INCRD TO REFLECT CURRENT
EXPECTATIONS. PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

STILL CONCERNED OVER THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LATE TODAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WIND FIELD IS
IMPRESSIVE AND THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
NAM IS CLEARLY THE STRONGEST WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES COMPARED TO
OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS. THIS LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT THE NAM
MAY BE ON ITS OWN WITH ITS DEPICTION OF THE SITUATION SO WILL LEAN
AWAY FROM IT. ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. WITH MIXING HEIGHTS RISING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...COULD STILL SEE STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITHOUT
CONVECTION. OTHER LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND THE
RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. FOR A NAM SOLUTION TO
COME TO FRUITION...WOULD NEED TO SEE CONVECTION FIRE AND GROW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES ALONG THE FRONT AND THEN SUSTAIN ITSELF...THANKS
TO THE HIGH SHEAR VALUES IN ITS SOLUTION. THE OTHER OPERATIONAL
MODELS ARE NOT IN TOTAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. FORECAST
WILL SHOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND THEN SHOWERS/STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. HAVE INCREASED WIND GUSTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

FRONT WILL PICK UP SPEED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WITH THE FRONT WILL END IN THE EVENING OVER
THE SOUTH. STRONG CAA WILL FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF THE BOUNDARY AS
THE TROUGH AXIS MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. 85H TEMPS WILL
DROP SOME 6-8 DEGREES SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW VEERS TO THE
NORTHWEST. EXPECT A LARGE AREA OF STRTOCU TO QUICKLY COVER THE
REGION. ITS POSSIBLE...WITH THE COLDER AIR AND NORTHWEST FLOW...
SHOWERS COULD REDEVELOP...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTH AND RIDGES.

HEART OF THE COLD AIR SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION MONDAY. EXPECT
THE STRATOCU DECK TO REMAIN IN PLACE. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING A THIN LAYER OF SATURATION WHICH WOULD LIKELY PREVENT
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ON MONDAY. NOTICEABLY COLDER 85H TEMP
FORECAST MONDAY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WILL NECESSITATE
THE LOWERING OF TEMPS ON MONDAY. IF LATEST MODEL OUTPUT IS
CORRECT...HIGHS MONDAY COULD BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

COLD AIR WILL QUICKLY RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
ENTIRE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SHIFTS TOWARD THE EAST COAST.

WAA WILL KICK IN MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR.

SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY AND COMFORTABLE
DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY AND SEASONABLE PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINE OF SHWRS ADVCG ACRS RGN THIS MRNG...LKLY PROVIDING BRIEF
IMPACTS TO KFKL/KDUJ. SCT CVRG XPCD SWD NEAR KPIT/KAGC/KBVI/KHLG...
BUT THESE SHWRS WILL VACATE QUICKLY AND WILL PRODUCE ONLY LMTD
MVFR RESTRICTIONS AND LCL WIND GUSTS TO 25KT.

RETURN TO VFR CONDS XPCD LATE THIS MRNG BFR A SECOND LINE OF SHWRS
AND TSTMS DVLPS MID-LATE AFTN ALONG ADVCG CDFNT. THIS LINE MAY
PRODUCE STRONGER WIND GUSTS...QUITE PSBLY STRONG TO SVR. TIMING
WILL BE DURG 20Z-24Z FROM W TO E. GENL VFR CONDS XPCD THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS BETWEEN 3-5KFT AGL WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER A DRY PATTERN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KRAMAR







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210929
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
529 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STILL CONCERNED OVER THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
LATE TODAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WIND FIELD IS
IMPRESSIVE AND THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
NAM IS CLEARLY THE STRONGEST WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES COMPARED TO
OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS. THIS LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT THE NAM
MAY BE ON ITS OWN WITH ITS DEPICTION OF THE SITUATION SO WILL LEAN
AWAY FROM IT. ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. WITH MIXING HEIGHTS RISING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...COULD STILL SEE STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITHOUT
CONVECTION. OTHER LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND THE
RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. FOR A NAM SOLUTION TO
COME TO FRUITION...WOULD NEED TO SEE CONVECTION FIRE AND GROW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES ALONG THE FRONT AND THEN SUSTAIN ITSELF...THANKS
TO THE HIGH SHEAR VALUES IN ITS SOLUTION. THE OTHER OPERATIONAL
MODELS ARE NOT IN TOTAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. FORECAST
WILL SHOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND THEN SHOWERS/STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. HAVE INCREASED WIND GUSTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

FRONT WILL PICK UP SPEED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WITH THE FRONT WILL END IN THE EVENING OVER
THE SOUTH. STRONG CAA WILL FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF THE BOUNDARY AS
THE TROUGH AXIS MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. 85H TEMPS WILL
DROP SOME 6-8 DEGREES SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW VEERS TO THE
NORTHWEST. EXPECT A LARGE AREA OF STRTOCU TO QUICKLY COVER THE
REGION. ITS POSSIBLE...WITH THE COLDER AIR AND NORTHWEST FLOW...
SHOWERS COULD REDEVELOP...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTH AND RIDGES.

HEART OF THE COLD AIR SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION MONDAY. EXPECT
THE STRATOCU DECK TO REMAIN IN PLACE. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING A THIN LAYER OF SATURATION WHICH WOULD LIKELY PREVENT
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ON MONDAY. NOTICEABLY COLDER 85H TEMP
FORECAST MONDAY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WILL NECESSITATE
THE LOWERING OF TEMPS ON MONDAY. IF LATEST MODEL OUTPUT IS
CORRECT...HIGHS MONDAY COULD BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

COLD AIR WILL QUICKLY RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
ENTIRE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SHIFTS TOWARD THE EAST COAST.

WAA WILL KICK IN MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR.

SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY AND COMFORTABLE
DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY AND SEASONABLE PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINE OF SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
PRECEDING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL QUICKLY PASS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SHOWS
SEVERAL LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR CIGS AS THE LINE
PASSES BUT IMPROVE TO VFR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE ACTUAL COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND WHILE LATEST MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES ONLY MARGINAL LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORMS...THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS OUT OF THE WEST WITH EITHER
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS BETWEEN 3-5KFT AGL WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER A DRY PATTERN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210929
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
529 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STILL CONCERNED OVER THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
LATE TODAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WIND FIELD IS
IMPRESSIVE AND THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
NAM IS CLEARLY THE STRONGEST WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES COMPARED TO
OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS. THIS LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT THE NAM
MAY BE ON ITS OWN WITH ITS DEPICTION OF THE SITUATION SO WILL LEAN
AWAY FROM IT. ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. WITH MIXING HEIGHTS RISING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...COULD STILL SEE STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITHOUT
CONVECTION. OTHER LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND THE
RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. FOR A NAM SOLUTION TO
COME TO FRUITION...WOULD NEED TO SEE CONVECTION FIRE AND GROW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES ALONG THE FRONT AND THEN SUSTAIN ITSELF...THANKS
TO THE HIGH SHEAR VALUES IN ITS SOLUTION. THE OTHER OPERATIONAL
MODELS ARE NOT IN TOTAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. FORECAST
WILL SHOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND THEN SHOWERS/STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. HAVE INCREASED WIND GUSTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

FRONT WILL PICK UP SPEED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WITH THE FRONT WILL END IN THE EVENING OVER
THE SOUTH. STRONG CAA WILL FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF THE BOUNDARY AS
THE TROUGH AXIS MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. 85H TEMPS WILL
DROP SOME 6-8 DEGREES SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW VEERS TO THE
NORTHWEST. EXPECT A LARGE AREA OF STRTOCU TO QUICKLY COVER THE
REGION. ITS POSSIBLE...WITH THE COLDER AIR AND NORTHWEST FLOW...
SHOWERS COULD REDEVELOP...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTH AND RIDGES.

HEART OF THE COLD AIR SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION MONDAY. EXPECT
THE STRATOCU DECK TO REMAIN IN PLACE. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING A THIN LAYER OF SATURATION WHICH WOULD LIKELY PREVENT
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ON MONDAY. NOTICEABLY COLDER 85H TEMP
FORECAST MONDAY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WILL NECESSITATE
THE LOWERING OF TEMPS ON MONDAY. IF LATEST MODEL OUTPUT IS
CORRECT...HIGHS MONDAY COULD BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

COLD AIR WILL QUICKLY RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
ENTIRE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SHIFTS TOWARD THE EAST COAST.

WAA WILL KICK IN MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR.

SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY AND COMFORTABLE
DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY AND SEASONABLE PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINE OF SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
PRECEDING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL QUICKLY PASS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SHOWS
SEVERAL LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR CIGS AS THE LINE
PASSES BUT IMPROVE TO VFR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE ACTUAL COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND WHILE LATEST MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES ONLY MARGINAL LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORMS...THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS OUT OF THE WEST WITH EITHER
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS BETWEEN 3-5KFT AGL WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER A DRY PATTERN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210805
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
405 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STILL CONCERNED OVER THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
LATE TODAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WIND FIELD IS
IMPRESSIVE AND THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
NAM IS CLEARLY THE STRONGEST WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES COMPARED TO
OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS. THIS LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT THE NAM
MAY BE ON ITS OWN WITH ITS DEPICTION OF THE SITUATION SO WILL LEAN
AWAY FROM IT. ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. WITH MIXING HEIGHTS RISING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...COULD STILL SEE STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITHOUT
CONVECTION. OTHER LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND THE
RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. FOR A NAM SOLUTION TO
COME TO FRUITION...WOULD NEED TO SEE CONVECTION FIRE AND GROW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES ALONG THE FRONT AND THEN SUSTAIN ITSELF...THANKS
TO THE HIGH SHEAR VALUES IN ITS SOLUTION. THE OTHER OPERATIONAL
MODELS ARE NOT IN TOTAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. FORECAST
WILL SHOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND THEN SHOWERS/STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. HAVE INCREASED WIND GUSTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

FRONT WILL PICK UP SPEED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WITH THE FRONT WILL END IN THE EVENING OVER
THE SOUTH. STRONG CAA WILL FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF THE BOUNDARY AS
THE TROUGH AXIS MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. 85H TEMPS WILL
DROP SOME 6-8 DEGREES SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW VEERS TO THE
NORTHWEST. EXPECT A LARGE AREA OF STRTOCU TO QUICKLY COVER THE
REGION. ITS POSSIBLE...WITH THE COLDER AIR AND NORTHWEST FLOW...
SHOWERS COULD REDEVELOP...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTH AND RIDGES.

HEART OF THE COLD AIR SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION MONDAY. EXPECT
THE STRATOCU DECK TO REMAIN IN PLACE. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING A THIN LAYER OF SATURATION WHICH WOULD LIKELY PREVENT
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ON MONDAY. NOTICEABLY COLDER 85H TEMP
FORECAST MONDAY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WILL NECESSITATE
THE LOWERING OF TEMPS ON MONDAY. IF LATEST MODEL OUTPUT IS
CORRECT...HIGHS MONDAY COULD BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

COLD AIR WILL QUICKLY RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
ENTIRE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SHIFTS TOWARD THE EAST COAST.

WAA WILL KICK IN MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR.

SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY AND COMFORTABLE
DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY AND SEASONABLE PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GRADUAL CONDITION DETERIORATION TO MVFR/LCL IFR CAN BE EXPECTED
LATE TNGT AND INTO SUNDAY AS A CDFNT APCHS FM THE W. ST DVLPMNT IN
THE WARM...MOIST FLOW UNDR THE INVERSION IS ANTICIPATED AS IS
ELEVATED SHWR DVLPMNT TWD MRNG. THE BTR CHC FOR IFR IS EXPECTED IN
THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHWRS AFTR DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NGT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN OFF THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO SPPRT MVFR STRATOCU
THRU MONDAY. THEREAFTER...GENL VFR IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
TARNISHED BY PERIDAWN FOG AND LCL ST.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210805
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
405 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STILL CONCERNED OVER THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
LATE TODAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WIND FIELD IS
IMPRESSIVE AND THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
NAM IS CLEARLY THE STRONGEST WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES COMPARED TO
OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS. THIS LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT THE NAM
MAY BE ON ITS OWN WITH ITS DEPICTION OF THE SITUATION SO WILL LEAN
AWAY FROM IT. ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. WITH MIXING HEIGHTS RISING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...COULD STILL SEE STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITHOUT
CONVECTION. OTHER LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND THE
RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. FOR A NAM SOLUTION TO
COME TO FRUITION...WOULD NEED TO SEE CONVECTION FIRE AND GROW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES ALONG THE FRONT AND THEN SUSTAIN ITSELF...THANKS
TO THE HIGH SHEAR VALUES IN ITS SOLUTION. THE OTHER OPERATIONAL
MODELS ARE NOT IN TOTAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. FORECAST
WILL SHOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND THEN SHOWERS/STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. HAVE INCREASED WIND GUSTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

FRONT WILL PICK UP SPEED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WITH THE FRONT WILL END IN THE EVENING OVER
THE SOUTH. STRONG CAA WILL FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF THE BOUNDARY AS
THE TROUGH AXIS MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. 85H TEMPS WILL
DROP SOME 6-8 DEGREES SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW VEERS TO THE
NORTHWEST. EXPECT A LARGE AREA OF STRTOCU TO QUICKLY COVER THE
REGION. ITS POSSIBLE...WITH THE COLDER AIR AND NORTHWEST FLOW...
SHOWERS COULD REDEVELOP...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTH AND RIDGES.

HEART OF THE COLD AIR SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION MONDAY. EXPECT
THE STRATOCU DECK TO REMAIN IN PLACE. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING A THIN LAYER OF SATURATION WHICH WOULD LIKELY PREVENT
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ON MONDAY. NOTICEABLY COLDER 85H TEMP
FORECAST MONDAY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WILL NECESSITATE
THE LOWERING OF TEMPS ON MONDAY. IF LATEST MODEL OUTPUT IS
CORRECT...HIGHS MONDAY COULD BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

COLD AIR WILL QUICKLY RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
ENTIRE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SHIFTS TOWARD THE EAST COAST.

WAA WILL KICK IN MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR.

SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY AND COMFORTABLE
DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY AND SEASONABLE PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GRADUAL CONDITION DETERIORATION TO MVFR/LCL IFR CAN BE EXPECTED
LATE TNGT AND INTO SUNDAY AS A CDFNT APCHS FM THE W. ST DVLPMNT IN
THE WARM...MOIST FLOW UNDR THE INVERSION IS ANTICIPATED AS IS
ELEVATED SHWR DVLPMNT TWD MRNG. THE BTR CHC FOR IFR IS EXPECTED IN
THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHWRS AFTR DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NGT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN OFF THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO SPPRT MVFR STRATOCU
THRU MONDAY. THEREAFTER...GENL VFR IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
TARNISHED BY PERIDAWN FOG AND LCL ST.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210523 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
123 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FOR THE OVERNIGHT...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS USING LATEST MODEL DATA.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT WEAKENING
AS IT ENCOUNTERS A STABLE ATMOSPHERE AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LINKED TO THE ACTIVITY WEAKENS AS WELL.

STILL CONCERNED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
LATE TODAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WIND FIELD IS
IMPRESSIVE AND THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
NAM IS CLEARLY THE STRONGEST WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES COMPARED TO
OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS. THIS LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT THE NAM
MAY BE ON ITS OWN WITH ITS DEPICTION OF THE SITUATION SO WILL LEAN
AWAY FROM IT. ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. WITH MIXING HEIGHTS RISING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...COULD STILL SEE STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITHOUT
CONVECTION. OTHER LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND THE
RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. FOR A NAM SOLUTION TO
COME TO FRUITION...WOULD NEED TO SEE CONVECTION FIRE AND GROW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES ALONG THE FRONT AND THEN SUSTAIN ITSELF...THANKS
TO THE HIGH SHEAR VALUES IN ITS SOLUTION. THE OTHER OPERATIONAL
MODELS ARE NOT IN TOTAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. FORECAST
WILL SHOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND THEN SHOWERS/STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. HAVE INCREASED WIND GUSTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

FRONT WILL PICK UP SPEED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WITH THE FRONT WILL END IN THE EVENING OVER
THE SOUTH. STRONG CAA WILL FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF THE BOUNDARY AS
THE TROUGH AXIS MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. 85H TEMPS WILL
DROP SOME 6-8 DEGREES SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW VEERS TO THE
NORTHWEST. EXPECT A LARGE AREA OF STRTOCU TO QUICKLY COVER THE
REGION. ITS POSSIBLE...WITH THE COLDER AIR AND NORTHWEST FLOW...
SHOWERS COULD REDEVELOP...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTH AND RIDGES.

HEART OF THE COLD AIR SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION MONDAY. EXPECT
THE STRATOCU DECK TO REMAIN IN PLACE. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING A THIN LAYER OF SATURATION WHICH WOULD LIKELY PREVENT
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ON MONDAY. NOTICEABLY COLDER 85H TEMP
FORECAST MONDAY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WILL NECESSITATE
THE LOWERING OF TEMPS ON MONDAY. IF LATEST MODEL OUTPUT IS
CORRECT...HIGHS MONDAY COULD BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

COLD AIR WILL QUICKLY RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
ENTIRE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SHIFTS TOWARD THE EAST COAST.

WAA WILL KICK IN MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR.

SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY AND COMFORTABLE
DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY AND SEASONABLE PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GRADUAL CONDITION DETERIORATION TO MVFR/LCL IFR CAN BE EXPECTED
LATE TNGT AND INTO SUNDAY AS A CDFNT APCHS FM THE W. ST DVLPMNT IN
THE WARM...MOIST FLOW UNDR THE INVERSION IS ANTICIPATED AS IS
ELEVATED SHWR DVLPMNT TWD MRNG. THE BTR CHC FOR IFR IS EXPECTED IN
THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHWRS AFTR DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NGT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN OFF THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO SPPRT MVFR STRATOCU
THRU MONDAY. THEREAFTER...GENL VFR IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
TARNISHED BY PERIDAWN FOG AND LCL ST.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210142
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
942 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EVENING UPDATE...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AS SHOWERS APPROACH FROM OHIO SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE
ALOFT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

STABLE CONDITIONS EARLY TONIGHT WILL WANE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF
THE EAST COAST. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE SUPPORT OF
A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL PROVIDE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.
SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINS FURTHER WEST...THUS
LOW POPS WERE MAINTAINED LATE TONIGHT.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN BY SUNDAY. INSUFFICIENT CAPE DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER...LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING...AND POOR MID LEVEL LAPS
RATES WILL OVERALL LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND LONGEVITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR LOW TOPPED
THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT WHILE LOW
LEVEL LAPS RATES STEEPEN AHEAD AND ALONG OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG
SHEAR...SHOWERS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS PREDICTED TO CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...A STRONG INVERSION WILL SET
UP AS NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AND THEREFORE LAKE AND TERRAIN
ENHANCED SHOWERS/CLOUDS WILL PURSUE EARLY MONDAY MORNING MAINLY
NORTH OF I-76...BUT SINCE THE INVERSION LOWERS AND REMAINS
SHALLOW...STRATOCU DECK WILL LIKELY SUPERSEDE SHOWERS MUCH OF MONDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING DRIER
CONDITIONS TO HELP WEAKEN THE INVERSION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GENL AGRMNT WITH DEPICTIONS OF
DRY WEATHER FOR THE UPR OH REGION INTO THE WEEKEND AS BROAD RIDGE
IS BUILT OVR MUCH OF THE CONUS. DESPITE RECENT ECMWF DETERMINISTIC
TRENDS OF AN AMPLIFYING WEAKNESS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...SUB
CLIMO/DRY POPS WERE THUS MAINTAINED. TEMPS UNDR THIS PTN WOULD
MODERATE TO AT LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS...FORECAST FOR WHICH
WAS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GRADUAL CONDITION DETERIORATION TO MVFR/LCL IFR CAN BE EXPECTED
LATE TNGT AND INTO SUNDAY AS A CDFNT APCHS FM THE W. ST DVLPMNT IN
THE WARM...MOIST FLOW UNDR THE INVERSION IS ANTICIPATED AS IS
ELEVATED SHWR DVLPMNT TWD MRNG. THE BTR CHC FOR IFR IS EXPECTED IN
THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHWRS AFTR DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NGT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN OFF THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO SPPRT MVFR STRATOCU
THRU MONDAY. THEREAFTER...GENL VFR IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
TARNISHED BY PERIDAWN FOG AND LCL ST.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

24/15





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210142
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
942 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EVENING UPDATE...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AS SHOWERS APPROACH FROM OHIO SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE
ALOFT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

STABLE CONDITIONS EARLY TONIGHT WILL WANE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF
THE EAST COAST. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE SUPPORT OF
A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL PROVIDE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.
SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINS FURTHER WEST...THUS
LOW POPS WERE MAINTAINED LATE TONIGHT.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN BY SUNDAY. INSUFFICIENT CAPE DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER...LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING...AND POOR MID LEVEL LAPS
RATES WILL OVERALL LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND LONGEVITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR LOW TOPPED
THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT WHILE LOW
LEVEL LAPS RATES STEEPEN AHEAD AND ALONG OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG
SHEAR...SHOWERS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS PREDICTED TO CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...A STRONG INVERSION WILL SET
UP AS NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AND THEREFORE LAKE AND TERRAIN
ENHANCED SHOWERS/CLOUDS WILL PURSUE EARLY MONDAY MORNING MAINLY
NORTH OF I-76...BUT SINCE THE INVERSION LOWERS AND REMAINS
SHALLOW...STRATOCU DECK WILL LIKELY SUPERSEDE SHOWERS MUCH OF MONDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING DRIER
CONDITIONS TO HELP WEAKEN THE INVERSION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GENL AGRMNT WITH DEPICTIONS OF
DRY WEATHER FOR THE UPR OH REGION INTO THE WEEKEND AS BROAD RIDGE
IS BUILT OVR MUCH OF THE CONUS. DESPITE RECENT ECMWF DETERMINISTIC
TRENDS OF AN AMPLIFYING WEAKNESS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...SUB
CLIMO/DRY POPS WERE THUS MAINTAINED. TEMPS UNDR THIS PTN WOULD
MODERATE TO AT LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS...FORECAST FOR WHICH
WAS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GRADUAL CONDITION DETERIORATION TO MVFR/LCL IFR CAN BE EXPECTED
LATE TNGT AND INTO SUNDAY AS A CDFNT APCHS FM THE W. ST DVLPMNT IN
THE WARM...MOIST FLOW UNDR THE INVERSION IS ANTICIPATED AS IS
ELEVATED SHWR DVLPMNT TWD MRNG. THE BTR CHC FOR IFR IS EXPECTED IN
THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHWRS AFTR DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NGT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN OFF THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO SPPRT MVFR STRATOCU
THRU MONDAY. THEREAFTER...GENL VFR IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
TARNISHED BY PERIDAWN FOG AND LCL ST.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

24/15






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 202329
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
729 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH THE SUPPORT OF A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL PROVIDE CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION
REMAINS FURTHER WEST...THUS LOW POPS WERE MAINTAINED LATE TONIGHT.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN BY SUNDAY. INSUFFICIENT CAPE DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER...LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING...AND POOR MID LEVEL LAPS
RATES WILL OVERALL LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND LONGEVITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR LOW TOPPED
THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT WHILE LOW
LEVEL LAPS RATES STEEPEN AHEAD AND ALONG OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG
SHEAR...SHOWERS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS PREDICTED TO CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...A STRONG INVERSION WILL SET
UP AS NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AND THEREFORE LAKE AND TERRAIN
ENHANCED SHOWERS/CLOUDS WILL PURSUE EARLY MONDAY MORNING MAINLY
NORTH OF I-76...BUT SINCE THE INVERSION LOWERS AND REMAINS
SHALLOW...STRATOCU DECK WILL LIKELY SUPERSEDE SHOWERS MUCH OF MONDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING DRIER
CONDITIONS TO HELP WEAKEN THE INVERSION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GENL AGRMNT WITH DEPICTIONS OF
DRY WEATHER FOR THE UPR OH REGION INTO THE WEEKEND AS BROAD RIDGE
IS BUILT OVR MUCH OF THE CONUS. DESPITE RECENT ECMWF DETERMINISTIC
TRENDS OF AN AMPLIFYING WEAKNESS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...SUB
CLIMO/DRY POPS WERE THUS MAINTAINED. TEMPS UNDR THIS PTN WOULD
MODERATE TO AT LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS...FORECAST FOR WHICH
WAS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GRADUAL CONDITION DETERIORATION TO MVFR/LCL IFR CAN BE EXPECTED
LATE TNGT AND INTO SUNDAY AS A CDFNT APCHS FM THE W. ST DVLPMNT IN
THE WARM...MOIST FLOW UNDR THE INVERSION IS ANTICIPATED AS IS
ELEVATED SHWR DVLPMNT TWD MRNG. THE BTR CHC FOR IFR IS EXPECTED IN
THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHWRS AFTR DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NGT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN OFF THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO SPPRT MVFR STRATOCU
THRU MONDAY. THEREAFTER...GENL VFR IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
TARNISHED BY PERIDAWN FOG AND LCL ST.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

24/15






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 202329
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
729 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH THE SUPPORT OF A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL PROVIDE CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION
REMAINS FURTHER WEST...THUS LOW POPS WERE MAINTAINED LATE TONIGHT.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN BY SUNDAY. INSUFFICIENT CAPE DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER...LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING...AND POOR MID LEVEL LAPS
RATES WILL OVERALL LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND LONGEVITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR LOW TOPPED
THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT WHILE LOW
LEVEL LAPS RATES STEEPEN AHEAD AND ALONG OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG
SHEAR...SHOWERS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS PREDICTED TO CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...A STRONG INVERSION WILL SET
UP AS NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AND THEREFORE LAKE AND TERRAIN
ENHANCED SHOWERS/CLOUDS WILL PURSUE EARLY MONDAY MORNING MAINLY
NORTH OF I-76...BUT SINCE THE INVERSION LOWERS AND REMAINS
SHALLOW...STRATOCU DECK WILL LIKELY SUPERSEDE SHOWERS MUCH OF MONDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING DRIER
CONDITIONS TO HELP WEAKEN THE INVERSION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GENL AGRMNT WITH DEPICTIONS OF
DRY WEATHER FOR THE UPR OH REGION INTO THE WEEKEND AS BROAD RIDGE
IS BUILT OVR MUCH OF THE CONUS. DESPITE RECENT ECMWF DETERMINISTIC
TRENDS OF AN AMPLIFYING WEAKNESS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...SUB
CLIMO/DRY POPS WERE THUS MAINTAINED. TEMPS UNDR THIS PTN WOULD
MODERATE TO AT LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS...FORECAST FOR WHICH
WAS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GRADUAL CONDITION DETERIORATION TO MVFR/LCL IFR CAN BE EXPECTED
LATE TNGT AND INTO SUNDAY AS A CDFNT APCHS FM THE W. ST DVLPMNT IN
THE WARM...MOIST FLOW UNDR THE INVERSION IS ANTICIPATED AS IS
ELEVATED SHWR DVLPMNT TWD MRNG. THE BTR CHC FOR IFR IS EXPECTED IN
THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHWRS AFTR DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NGT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN OFF THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO SPPRT MVFR STRATOCU
THRU MONDAY. THEREAFTER...GENL VFR IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
TARNISHED BY PERIDAWN FOG AND LCL ST.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

24/15





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 202105
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
505 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE SUPPORT OF A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL PROVIDE
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINS
FURTHER WEST...THUS LOW POPS WERE MAINTAINED LATE TONIGHT.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN BY SUNDAY. INSUFFICIENT CAPE DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER...LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING...AND POOR MID LEVEL LAPS
RATES WILL OVERALL LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND LONGEVITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR LOW TOPPED
THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT WHILE LOW
LEVEL LAPS RATES STEEPEN AHEAD AND ALONG OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG
SHEAR...SHOWERS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS PREDICTED TO CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...A STRONG INVERSION WILL SET
UP AS NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AND THEREFORE LAKE AND TERRAIN
ENHANCED SHOWERS/CLOUDS WILL PURSUE MONDAY MAINLY NORTH OF I-76.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING DRIER
CONDITIONS TO HELP WEAKEN THE INVERSION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GENL AGRMNT WITH DEPICTIONS OF
DRY WEATHER FOR THE UPR OH REGION INTO THE WEEKEND AS BROAD RIDGE
IS BUILT OVR MUCH OF THE CONUS. DESPITE RECENT ECMWF DETERMINISTIC
TRENDS OF AN AMPLIFYING WEAKNESS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...SUB
CLIMO/DRY POPS WERE THUS MAINTAINED. TEMPS UNDR THIS PTN WOULD
MODERATE TO AT LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS...FORECAST FOR WHICH
WAS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GRADUAL CONDITION DETERIORATION TO MVFR/LCL IFR CAN BE EXPECTED
LATE TNGT AND INTO SUNDAY AS A CDFNT APCHS FM THE W. ST DVLPMNT IN
THE WARM...MOIST FLOW UNDR THE INVERSION IS ANTICIPATED AS IS
ELEVATED SHWR DVLPMNT TWD MRNG. THE BTR CHC FOR IFR IS EXPECTED IN
THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHWRS AFTR DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NGT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN OFF THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO SPPRT MVFR STRATOCU
THRU MONDAY. THEREAFTER...GENL VFR IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
TARNISHED BY PERIDAWN FOG AND LCL ST.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 202105
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
505 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE SUPPORT OF A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL PROVIDE
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINS
FURTHER WEST...THUS LOW POPS WERE MAINTAINED LATE TONIGHT.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN BY SUNDAY. INSUFFICIENT CAPE DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER...LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING...AND POOR MID LEVEL LAPS
RATES WILL OVERALL LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND LONGEVITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR LOW TOPPED
THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT WHILE LOW
LEVEL LAPS RATES STEEPEN AHEAD AND ALONG OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG
SHEAR...SHOWERS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS PREDICTED TO CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...A STRONG INVERSION WILL SET
UP AS NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AND THEREFORE LAKE AND TERRAIN
ENHANCED SHOWERS/CLOUDS WILL PURSUE MONDAY MAINLY NORTH OF I-76.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING DRIER
CONDITIONS TO HELP WEAKEN THE INVERSION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GENL AGRMNT WITH DEPICTIONS OF
DRY WEATHER FOR THE UPR OH REGION INTO THE WEEKEND AS BROAD RIDGE
IS BUILT OVR MUCH OF THE CONUS. DESPITE RECENT ECMWF DETERMINISTIC
TRENDS OF AN AMPLIFYING WEAKNESS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...SUB
CLIMO/DRY POPS WERE THUS MAINTAINED. TEMPS UNDR THIS PTN WOULD
MODERATE TO AT LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS...FORECAST FOR WHICH
WAS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GRADUAL CONDITION DETERIORATION TO MVFR/LCL IFR CAN BE EXPECTED
LATE TNGT AND INTO SUNDAY AS A CDFNT APCHS FM THE W. ST DVLPMNT IN
THE WARM...MOIST FLOW UNDR THE INVERSION IS ANTICIPATED AS IS
ELEVATED SHWR DVLPMNT TWD MRNG. THE BTR CHC FOR IFR IS EXPECTED IN
THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHWRS AFTR DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NGT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN OFF THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO SPPRT MVFR STRATOCU
THRU MONDAY. THEREAFTER...GENL VFR IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
TARNISHED BY PERIDAWN FOG AND LCL ST.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201827
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
227 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER WEATHER MONDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
TAKES CONTROL...YIELDING A WARMING TREND BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY
WEEKS END.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PORTRAYS INVASION OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL PROVIDE A NEAR
CANOPY FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NAM12
HAS DONE A GOOD JOB IDENTIFY AREAS OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BETWEEN
3-6KFT THAT SHOWS UP NICELY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE AS PATCHES OF
BKN-OVC CU FROM ZZV TO CLARION. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS DRIER
ADVECTS IN FROM THE SW.

OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH THE ONLY RAIN PRODUCING
WEATHER SYSTEM OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST. 12Z NCEP CHAIN AND 9Z SREF
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON COLD FRONT TIMING DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS WEST OF I-79 THEN EARLY AFTERNOON POINTS EAST. HIGH
RES CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST TWO WAVES OF PCPN. THE
FIRST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THEN A BREAK BEFORE YET ANOTHER
ROUND ARRIVES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT. DO NOT FORESEE
AN ALL DAY RAIN AND GIVEN THE FACT THE LINE OF SHOWERS WILL BE
BROKEN...SOME LOCATIONS MAY NOT SEE MEASURABLE PCPN AT ALL.

THE CYCLONE DEEPENS AS IT CROSSES SOUTHERN CANADA THUS PRESSURE
GRADIENT PICKS UP CREATING A HEALTHY WIND FIELD. WITH BAROCLINIC
ZONE CROSSING EASTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON...THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR A GUSTY SHOWER OR STORM. LAPSE RATES ARE BELOW
5CKM-1 AND MOISTURE DEPTH IS CONFINED BELOW 10KFT... SO ITS HARD
TO SEE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. THAT SAID...WILL
MAINTAIN HWO MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS FOR PA...NRN WV...AND WRN
MD...BUT THREAT IS GONE FOR OHIO GIVEN EARLIER FROPA.

POPS WERE INCREASED CLOSER TO LAKE ERIE WHERE BETTER UPPER LEVEL
FORCING EXISTS PER PROXIMITY TO CYCLONE...OTHERWISE CHC TO LKLY
POPS WILL COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG CAA ENSUES SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWEEPS
THROUGH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S...BUT WITH H8 TEMPS 12-13C COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO DAYTIME
HIGHS WON/T CLIMB MUCH MONDAY...AS 50S WILL BE THE BEST WE CAN DO. ANY
MEASURABLE QPF WILL RESIDE EAST OF THE NRN WV PANHANDLE SUN NGT
WITH LKLY NUMBERS OVER FAR EASTERN AREAS. NW WINDS WILL CREATE
POTENTIAL FOR LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS AND CLOUDS MUCH OF MONDAY
NORTH OF I-76.

ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DRIES OUT THE COLUMN FROM WEST TO EAST MON
NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG EXISTS AS PLACEMENT OF HIGH
WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR CALM WINDS AND A CLEAR SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SUBSIDENCE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. H5 HEIGHTS CLIMB TO AROUND 588DM
AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. WITH ANTICYCLONES STACKED
ON TOP OF THEMSELVES...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD IS FORESEEN UNTIL
FRIDAY WHEN RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE ALLOWS MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TO ADVECT EASTWARD. H8 TEMPS REBOUND
QUICKLY TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR A WARMER AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES
RECOVER BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS. SW FLOW AND BETTER MIXING PROMOTE
EVEN WARMER AFTERNOONS THUR - SAT WITH LOW TO MID 70S COMMON SAVE
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERALL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WERE A
BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WPC...WHILE NIGHT TIME LOWS
BIAS CORRECTED ECMWF GRIDS ALONG WITH INHERITED FORECAST WERE
USED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR WEATHER HOLDS UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING WHEN A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CIGS WILL TEETER ON THE FRINGE OF
MVFR/VFR SUN MORNING...HOWEVER EXPECT MORE VFR THAN MVFR OUTSIDE
FKL AND DUJ. TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST. THE FIRST ARRIVES AHEAD OF THE FRONT MID SUN MORNING...WHILE
THE SECOND IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE IN THE
AFTERNOON. COULD NOT RULE OUT A VERY SHORT WINDOW OF IFR
VSBYS...BUT THE TEMPORAL WINDOW AND PROB IS TOO LOW FOR TERMINAL
FCST.

OUTLOOK.../18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A COLD
FRONT CROSSES. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 35 KTS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

98





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201827
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
227 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER WEATHER MONDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
TAKES CONTROL...YIELDING A WARMING TREND BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY
WEEKS END.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PORTRAYS INVASION OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL PROVIDE A NEAR
CANOPY FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NAM12
HAS DONE A GOOD JOB IDENTIFY AREAS OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BETWEEN
3-6KFT THAT SHOWS UP NICELY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE AS PATCHES OF
BKN-OVC CU FROM ZZV TO CLARION. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS DRIER
ADVECTS IN FROM THE SW.

OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH THE ONLY RAIN PRODUCING
WEATHER SYSTEM OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST. 12Z NCEP CHAIN AND 9Z SREF
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON COLD FRONT TIMING DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS WEST OF I-79 THEN EARLY AFTERNOON POINTS EAST. HIGH
RES CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST TWO WAVES OF PCPN. THE
FIRST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THEN A BREAK BEFORE YET ANOTHER
ROUND ARRIVES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT. DO NOT FORESEE
AN ALL DAY RAIN AND GIVEN THE FACT THE LINE OF SHOWERS WILL BE
BROKEN...SOME LOCATIONS MAY NOT SEE MEASURABLE PCPN AT ALL.

THE CYCLONE DEEPENS AS IT CROSSES SOUTHERN CANADA THUS PRESSURE
GRADIENT PICKS UP CREATING A HEALTHY WIND FIELD. WITH BAROCLINIC
ZONE CROSSING EASTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON...THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR A GUSTY SHOWER OR STORM. LAPSE RATES ARE BELOW
5CKM-1 AND MOISTURE DEPTH IS CONFINED BELOW 10KFT... SO ITS HARD
TO SEE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. THAT SAID...WILL
MAINTAIN HWO MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS FOR PA...NRN WV...AND WRN
MD...BUT THREAT IS GONE FOR OHIO GIVEN EARLIER FROPA.

POPS WERE INCREASED CLOSER TO LAKE ERIE WHERE BETTER UPPER LEVEL
FORCING EXISTS PER PROXIMITY TO CYCLONE...OTHERWISE CHC TO LKLY
POPS WILL COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG CAA ENSUES SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWEEPS
THROUGH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S...BUT WITH H8 TEMPS 12-13C COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO DAYTIME
HIGHS WON/T CLIMB MUCH MONDAY...AS 50S WILL BE THE BEST WE CAN DO. ANY
MEASURABLE QPF WILL RESIDE EAST OF THE NRN WV PANHANDLE SUN NGT
WITH LKLY NUMBERS OVER FAR EASTERN AREAS. NW WINDS WILL CREATE
POTENTIAL FOR LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS AND CLOUDS MUCH OF MONDAY
NORTH OF I-76.

ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DRIES OUT THE COLUMN FROM WEST TO EAST MON
NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG EXISTS AS PLACEMENT OF HIGH
WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR CALM WINDS AND A CLEAR SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SUBSIDENCE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. H5 HEIGHTS CLIMB TO AROUND 588DM
AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. WITH ANTICYCLONES STACKED
ON TOP OF THEMSELVES...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD IS FORESEEN UNTIL
FRIDAY WHEN RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE ALLOWS MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TO ADVECT EASTWARD. H8 TEMPS REBOUND
QUICKLY TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR A WARMER AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES
RECOVER BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS. SW FLOW AND BETTER MIXING PROMOTE
EVEN WARMER AFTERNOONS THUR - SAT WITH LOW TO MID 70S COMMON SAVE
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERALL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WERE A
BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WPC...WHILE NIGHT TIME LOWS
BIAS CORRECTED ECMWF GRIDS ALONG WITH INHERITED FORECAST WERE
USED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR WEATHER HOLDS UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING WHEN A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CIGS WILL TEETER ON THE FRINGE OF
MVFR/VFR SUN MORNING...HOWEVER EXPECT MORE VFR THAN MVFR OUTSIDE
FKL AND DUJ. TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST. THE FIRST ARRIVES AHEAD OF THE FRONT MID SUN MORNING...WHILE
THE SECOND IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE IN THE
AFTERNOON. COULD NOT RULE OUT A VERY SHORT WINDOW OF IFR
VSBYS...BUT THE TEMPORAL WINDOW AND PROB IS TOO LOW FOR TERMINAL
FCST.

OUTLOOK.../18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A COLD
FRONT CROSSES. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 35 KTS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

98






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201652
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1252 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM FOR ONE MORE DAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS BRIEF
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. MUCH COOLER
MONDAY...HOWEVER A WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE EACH DAY NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CAMPED OUT OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE MIDDAY UPDATE.

ONE LAST WARM DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
TAKES THE WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES DOWNHILL. THE LATEST 12Z PIT RAOB
ILLUSTRATES LOTS OF DRY AIR FROM H7 THROUGH H4 WHICH WILL MIX OUT
MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOTED NEAR THE SURFACE. NONETHELESS
STILL EXPECT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE GUSTY WINDS. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH
LOW PRESSURE ENCROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST AND A FAIRLY DEEP MIXING
LAYER. AFTERNOON MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 5-6KFT EQUATING TO
GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. NAM IS GENERATING ISOLD STORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER DUE TO THE INFLATED LLVL
MOISTURE THAT ITS PREDICTING...IGNORED IT AND CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FCST AREA WIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST. PRE-FRONTAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH AND IT WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING A RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERE. WILL KEEP POPS LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE MORE CLOUDS THAN
PRECIPITATION.

FRONT REACHES WESTERN ZONES BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AND AN IMPRESSIVE WIND
FIELD AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT CONTINUE TO SEE A LACK
OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE CLOUD COVER FROM SATURDAY NIGHTS
SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS. A SIGNIFICANT LINE OF LOW
LEVEL FORCING DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWEST LAYERS INCREASES. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE
CLOUD COVER AND HOW THIS LIMITS SURFACE TEMPS. ADDITIONALLY...ANY
SHOWERS THAT FALL WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL SHORTWAVE WILL COOL THE
ATMOSPHERE...FURTHER DECREASING THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS.

SUNDAY`S FRONT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR A STRONGER EVENT...BUT SO ARE THE LIMITING FACTORS. IF A LINE
OF STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPS IT WILL BE DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY.

FRONT PICKS UP SPEED SUNDAY EVENING AS STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STRONG CAA AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW
THE SHORTWAVE. WOULD EXPECT A LARGE STRATOCU DECK TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH A LARGE PART OF MONDAY. ITS
POSSIBLE THAT A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
MAIN COLD POOL.

WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH THE CAA AND CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SUBSIDENCE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. H5 HEIGHTS CLIMB TO AROUND 588DM
AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. WITH ANTICYCLONES STACKED
ON TOP OF THEMSELVES...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD IS FORESEEN UNTIL
FRIDAY WHEN RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE ALLOWS MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TO ADVECT EASTWARD. H8 TEMPS REBOUND
QUICKLY TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR A WARMER AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES
RECOVER BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS. SW FLOW AND BETTER MIXING PROMOTE
EVEN WARMER AFTERNOONS THUR - SAT WITH LOW TO MID 70S COMMON SAVE
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERALL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WERE A
BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WPC...WHILE NIGHT TIME LOWS
BIAS CORRECTED ECMWF GRIDS ALONG WITH INHERITED FORECAST WERE
USED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR WEATHER HOLDS UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING WHEN A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CIGS WILL TEETER ON THE FRINGE OF
MVFR/VFR SUN MORNING...HOWEVER EXPECT MORE VFR THAN MVFR OUTSIDE
FKL AND DUJ. TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST. THE FIRST ARRIVES AHEAD OF THE FRONT MID SUN MORNING...WHILE
THE SECOND IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE IN THE
AFTERNOON. COULD NOT RULE OUT A VERY SHORT WINDOW OF IFR
VSBYS...BUT THE TEMPORAL WINDOW AND PROB IS TOO LOW FOR TERMINAL
FCST.

OUTLOOK.../18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A COLD
FRONT CROSSES. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 35 KTS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...98
NEAR TERM...98
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...98
AVIATION...98








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201652
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1252 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM FOR ONE MORE DAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS BRIEF
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. MUCH COOLER
MONDAY...HOWEVER A WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE EACH DAY NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CAMPED OUT OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE MIDDAY UPDATE.

ONE LAST WARM DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
TAKES THE WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES DOWNHILL. THE LATEST 12Z PIT RAOB
ILLUSTRATES LOTS OF DRY AIR FROM H7 THROUGH H4 WHICH WILL MIX OUT
MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOTED NEAR THE SURFACE. NONETHELESS
STILL EXPECT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE GUSTY WINDS. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH
LOW PRESSURE ENCROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST AND A FAIRLY DEEP MIXING
LAYER. AFTERNOON MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 5-6KFT EQUATING TO
GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. NAM IS GENERATING ISOLD STORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER DUE TO THE INFLATED LLVL
MOISTURE THAT ITS PREDICTING...IGNORED IT AND CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FCST AREA WIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST. PRE-FRONTAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH AND IT WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING A RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERE. WILL KEEP POPS LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE MORE CLOUDS THAN
PRECIPITATION.

FRONT REACHES WESTERN ZONES BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AND AN IMPRESSIVE WIND
FIELD AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT CONTINUE TO SEE A LACK
OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE CLOUD COVER FROM SATURDAY NIGHTS
SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS. A SIGNIFICANT LINE OF LOW
LEVEL FORCING DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWEST LAYERS INCREASES. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE
CLOUD COVER AND HOW THIS LIMITS SURFACE TEMPS. ADDITIONALLY...ANY
SHOWERS THAT FALL WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL SHORTWAVE WILL COOL THE
ATMOSPHERE...FURTHER DECREASING THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS.

SUNDAY`S FRONT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR A STRONGER EVENT...BUT SO ARE THE LIMITING FACTORS. IF A LINE
OF STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPS IT WILL BE DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY.

FRONT PICKS UP SPEED SUNDAY EVENING AS STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STRONG CAA AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW
THE SHORTWAVE. WOULD EXPECT A LARGE STRATOCU DECK TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH A LARGE PART OF MONDAY. ITS
POSSIBLE THAT A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
MAIN COLD POOL.

WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH THE CAA AND CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SUBSIDENCE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. H5 HEIGHTS CLIMB TO AROUND 588DM
AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. WITH ANTICYCLONES STACKED
ON TOP OF THEMSELVES...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD IS FORESEEN UNTIL
FRIDAY WHEN RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE ALLOWS MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TO ADVECT EASTWARD. H8 TEMPS REBOUND
QUICKLY TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR A WARMER AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES
RECOVER BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS. SW FLOW AND BETTER MIXING PROMOTE
EVEN WARMER AFTERNOONS THUR - SAT WITH LOW TO MID 70S COMMON SAVE
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERALL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WERE A
BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WPC...WHILE NIGHT TIME LOWS
BIAS CORRECTED ECMWF GRIDS ALONG WITH INHERITED FORECAST WERE
USED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR WEATHER HOLDS UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING WHEN A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CIGS WILL TEETER ON THE FRINGE OF
MVFR/VFR SUN MORNING...HOWEVER EXPECT MORE VFR THAN MVFR OUTSIDE
FKL AND DUJ. TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST. THE FIRST ARRIVES AHEAD OF THE FRONT MID SUN MORNING...WHILE
THE SECOND IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE IN THE
AFTERNOON. COULD NOT RULE OUT A VERY SHORT WINDOW OF IFR
VSBYS...BUT THE TEMPORAL WINDOW AND PROB IS TOO LOW FOR TERMINAL
FCST.

OUTLOOK.../18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A COLD
FRONT CROSSES. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 35 KTS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...98
NEAR TERM...98
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...98
AVIATION...98







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201405
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1005 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM FOR ONE MORE DAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS BRIEF
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. MUCH COOLER
MONDAY...HOWEVER A WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE EACH DAY NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CAMPED OUT OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONE LAST WARM DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
TAKES THE WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES DOWNHILL. THE LATEST 12Z PIT RAOB
ILLUSTRATES LOTS OF DRY AIR FROM H7 THROUGH H4 WHICH WILL MIX OUT
MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOTED NEAR THE SURFACE. NONETHELESS
STILL EXPECT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE GUSTY WINDS. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH
LOW PRESSURE ENCROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST AND A FAIRLY DEEP MIXING
LAYER. AFTERNOON MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 5-6KFT EQUATING TO
GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. NAM IS GENERATING ISOLD STORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER DUE TO THE INFLATED LLVL
MOISTURE THAT ITS PREDICTING...IGNORED IT AND CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FCST AREA WIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST. PRE-FRONTAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH AND IT WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING A RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERE. WILL KEEP POPS LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE MORE CLOUDS THAN
PRECIPITATION.

FRONT REACHES WESTERN ZONES BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AND AN IMPRESSIVE WIND
FIELD AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT CONTINUE TO SEE A LACK
OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE CLOUD COVER FROM SATURDAY NIGHTS
SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS. A SIGNIFICANT LINE OF LOW
LEVEL FORCING DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWEST LAYERS INCREASES. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE
CLOUD COVER AND HOW THIS LIMITS SURFACE TEMPS. ADDITIONALLY...ANY
SHOWERS THAT FALL WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL SHORTWAVE WILL COOL THE
ATMOSPHERE...FURTHER DECREASING THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS.

SUNDAY`S FRONT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR A STRONGER EVENT...BUT SO ARE THE LIMITING FACTORS. IF A LINE
OF STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPS IT WILL BE DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY.

FRONT PICKS UP SPEED SUNDAY EVENING AS STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STRONG CAA AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW
THE SHORTWAVE. WOULD EXPECT A LARGE STRATOCU DECK TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH A LARGE PART OF MONDAY. ITS
POSSIBLE THAT A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
MAIN COLD POOL.

WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH THE CAA AND CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONDITIONS TODAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING BY LATE THIS MORNING AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
GENERAL RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$


SYNOPSIS...98
NEAR TERM...98
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...88
AVIATION...88







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201405
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1005 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM FOR ONE MORE DAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS BRIEF
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. MUCH COOLER
MONDAY...HOWEVER A WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE EACH DAY NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CAMPED OUT OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONE LAST WARM DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
TAKES THE WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES DOWNHILL. THE LATEST 12Z PIT RAOB
ILLUSTRATES LOTS OF DRY AIR FROM H7 THROUGH H4 WHICH WILL MIX OUT
MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOTED NEAR THE SURFACE. NONETHELESS
STILL EXPECT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE GUSTY WINDS. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH
LOW PRESSURE ENCROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST AND A FAIRLY DEEP MIXING
LAYER. AFTERNOON MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 5-6KFT EQUATING TO
GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. NAM IS GENERATING ISOLD STORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER DUE TO THE INFLATED LLVL
MOISTURE THAT ITS PREDICTING...IGNORED IT AND CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FCST AREA WIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST. PRE-FRONTAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH AND IT WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING A RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERE. WILL KEEP POPS LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE MORE CLOUDS THAN
PRECIPITATION.

FRONT REACHES WESTERN ZONES BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AND AN IMPRESSIVE WIND
FIELD AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT CONTINUE TO SEE A LACK
OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE CLOUD COVER FROM SATURDAY NIGHTS
SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS. A SIGNIFICANT LINE OF LOW
LEVEL FORCING DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWEST LAYERS INCREASES. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE
CLOUD COVER AND HOW THIS LIMITS SURFACE TEMPS. ADDITIONALLY...ANY
SHOWERS THAT FALL WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL SHORTWAVE WILL COOL THE
ATMOSPHERE...FURTHER DECREASING THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS.

SUNDAY`S FRONT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR A STRONGER EVENT...BUT SO ARE THE LIMITING FACTORS. IF A LINE
OF STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPS IT WILL BE DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY.

FRONT PICKS UP SPEED SUNDAY EVENING AS STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STRONG CAA AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW
THE SHORTWAVE. WOULD EXPECT A LARGE STRATOCU DECK TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH A LARGE PART OF MONDAY. ITS
POSSIBLE THAT A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
MAIN COLD POOL.

WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH THE CAA AND CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONDITIONS TODAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING BY LATE THIS MORNING AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
GENERAL RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$


SYNOPSIS...98
NEAR TERM...98
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...88
AVIATION...88






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201106
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
706 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AS A SOUTHERLY
WIND PROVIDES WARMER TEMPERATURES. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO UPDATES WILL BE NEEDED THIS MORNING AS LATEST OBSERVATIONS
MATCH UP WELL WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST. PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..

SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST
TODAY. THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FIELD AT THE LOWER AND MID-LEVELS
WILL INTENSIFY PUSHING WARM AIR NORTHWARD. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL RESPOND...RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST. PRE-FRONTAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH AND IT WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING A RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERE. WILL KEEP POPS LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE MORE CLOUDS THAN
PRECIPITATION.

FRONT REACHES WESTERN ZONES BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AND AN IMPRESSIVE WIND
FIELD AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT CONTINUE TO SEE A LACK
OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE CLOUD COVER FROM SATURDAY NIGHTS
SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS. A SIGNIFICANT LINE OF LOW
LEVEL FORCING DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWEST LAYERS INCREASES. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE
CLOUD COVER AND HOW THIS LIMITS SURFACE TEMPS. ADDITIONALLY...ANY
SHOWERS THAT FALL WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL SHORTWAVE WILL COOL THE
ATMOSPHERE...FURTHER DECREASING THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS.

SUNDAY`S FRONT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR A STRONGER EVENT...BUT SO ARE THE LIMITING FACTORS. IF A LINE
OF STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPS IT WILL BE DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY.

FRONT PICKS UP SPEED SUNDAY EVENING AS STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STRONG CAA AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW
THE SHORTWAVE. WOULD EXPECT A LARGE STRATOCU DECK TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH A LARGE PART OF MONDAY. ITS
POSSIBLE THAT A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
MAIN COLD POOL.

WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH THE CAA AND CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONDITIONS TODAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING BY LATE THIS MORNING AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
GENERAL RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS A
COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACCOMPANYING THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON FRONT CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG WIND GUSTS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201106
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
706 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AS A SOUTHERLY
WIND PROVIDES WARMER TEMPERATURES. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO UPDATES WILL BE NEEDED THIS MORNING AS LATEST OBSERVATIONS
MATCH UP WELL WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST. PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..

SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST
TODAY. THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FIELD AT THE LOWER AND MID-LEVELS
WILL INTENSIFY PUSHING WARM AIR NORTHWARD. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL RESPOND...RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST. PRE-FRONTAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH AND IT WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING A RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERE. WILL KEEP POPS LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE MORE CLOUDS THAN
PRECIPITATION.

FRONT REACHES WESTERN ZONES BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AND AN IMPRESSIVE WIND
FIELD AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT CONTINUE TO SEE A LACK
OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE CLOUD COVER FROM SATURDAY NIGHTS
SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS. A SIGNIFICANT LINE OF LOW
LEVEL FORCING DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWEST LAYERS INCREASES. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE
CLOUD COVER AND HOW THIS LIMITS SURFACE TEMPS. ADDITIONALLY...ANY
SHOWERS THAT FALL WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL SHORTWAVE WILL COOL THE
ATMOSPHERE...FURTHER DECREASING THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS.

SUNDAY`S FRONT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR A STRONGER EVENT...BUT SO ARE THE LIMITING FACTORS. IF A LINE
OF STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPS IT WILL BE DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY.

FRONT PICKS UP SPEED SUNDAY EVENING AS STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STRONG CAA AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW
THE SHORTWAVE. WOULD EXPECT A LARGE STRATOCU DECK TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH A LARGE PART OF MONDAY. ITS
POSSIBLE THAT A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
MAIN COLD POOL.

WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH THE CAA AND CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONDITIONS TODAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING BY LATE THIS MORNING AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
GENERAL RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS A
COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACCOMPANYING THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON FRONT CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG WIND GUSTS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200807
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
407 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AS A SOUTHERLY
WIND PROVIDES WARMER TEMPERATURES. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST
TODAY. THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FIELD AT THE LOWER AND MID-LEVELS
WILL INTENSIFY PUSHING WARM AIR NORTHWARD. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL RESPOND...RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST. PRE-FRONTAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH AND IT WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING A RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERE. WILL KEEP POPS LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE MORE CLOUDS THAN
PRECIPITATION.

FRONT REACHES WESTERN ZONES BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AND AN IMPRESSIVE WIND
FIELD AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT CONTINUE TO SEE A LACK
OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE CLOUD COVER FROM SATURDAY NIGHTS
SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS. A SIGNIFICANT LINE OF LOW
LEVEL FORCING DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWEST LAYERS INCREASES. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE
CLOUD COVER AND HOW THIS LIMITS SURFACE TEMPS. ADDITIONALLY...ANY
SHOWERS THAT FALL WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL SHORTWAVE WILL COOL THE
ATMOSPHERE...FURTHER DECREASING THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS.

SUNDAY`S FRONT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR A STRONGER EVENT...BUT SO ARE THE LIMITING FACTORS. IF A LINE
OF STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPS IT WILL BE DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY.

FRONT PICKS UP SPEED SUNDAY EVENING AS STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STRONG CAA AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW
THE SHORTWAVE. WOULD EXPECT A LARGE STRATOCU DECK TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH A LARGE PART OF MONDAY. ITS
POSSIBLE THAT A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
MAIN COLD POOL.

WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH THE CAA AND CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH EXCEPT FOR POTENTIAL ST/SC AT FKL AND DUJ IN THE PREDAWN...VFR
CONDITIONS WL CONT WITH SFC WIND PRECLUDING FOG WHILE VEERING TO
THE SOUTH...AND GUSTING NR 20 KT BY SAT AFTN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
GENERAL RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH A SUNDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200807
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
407 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AS A SOUTHERLY
WIND PROVIDES WARMER TEMPERATURES. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST
TODAY. THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FIELD AT THE LOWER AND MID-LEVELS
WILL INTENSIFY PUSHING WARM AIR NORTHWARD. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL RESPOND...RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST. PRE-FRONTAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH AND IT WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING A RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERE. WILL KEEP POPS LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE MORE CLOUDS THAN
PRECIPITATION.

FRONT REACHES WESTERN ZONES BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AND AN IMPRESSIVE WIND
FIELD AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT CONTINUE TO SEE A LACK
OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE CLOUD COVER FROM SATURDAY NIGHTS
SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS. A SIGNIFICANT LINE OF LOW
LEVEL FORCING DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWEST LAYERS INCREASES. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE
CLOUD COVER AND HOW THIS LIMITS SURFACE TEMPS. ADDITIONALLY...ANY
SHOWERS THAT FALL WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL SHORTWAVE WILL COOL THE
ATMOSPHERE...FURTHER DECREASING THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS.

SUNDAY`S FRONT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR A STRONGER EVENT...BUT SO ARE THE LIMITING FACTORS. IF A LINE
OF STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPS IT WILL BE DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY.

FRONT PICKS UP SPEED SUNDAY EVENING AS STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STRONG CAA AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW
THE SHORTWAVE. WOULD EXPECT A LARGE STRATOCU DECK TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH A LARGE PART OF MONDAY. ITS
POSSIBLE THAT A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
MAIN COLD POOL.

WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH THE CAA AND CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH EXCEPT FOR POTENTIAL ST/SC AT FKL AND DUJ IN THE PREDAWN...VFR
CONDITIONS WL CONT WITH SFC WIND PRECLUDING FOG WHILE VEERING TO
THE SOUTH...AND GUSTING NR 20 KT BY SAT AFTN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
GENERAL RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH A SUNDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200511 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
111 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AS A SOUTHERLY
WIND PROVIDES WARMER TEMPERATURES. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. UPDATE TO TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE.

SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST
TODAY. THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FIELD AT THE LOWER AND MID-LEVELS
WILL INTENSIFY PUSHING WARM AIR NORTHWARD. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL RESPOND...RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST. PRE-FRONTAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH AND IT WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING A RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERE. WILL KEEP POPS LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE MORE CLOUDS THAN
PRECIPITATION.

FRONT REACHES WESTERN ZONES BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AND AN IMPRESSIVE WIND
FIELD AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT CONTINUE TO SEE A LACK
OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE CLOUD COVER FROM SATURDAY NIGHTS
SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS. A SIGNIFICANT LINE OF LOW
LEVEL FORCING DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWEST LAYERS INCREASES. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE
CLOUD COVER AND HOW THIS LIMITS SURFACE TEMPS. ADDITIONALLY...ANY
SHOWERS THAT FALL WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL SHORTWAVE WILL COOL THE
ATMOSPHERE...FURTHER DECREASING THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS.

SUNDAY`S FRONT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR A STRONGER EVENT...BUT SO ARE THE LIMITING FACTORS. IF A LINE
OF STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPS IT WILL BE DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY.

FRONT PICKS UP SPEED SUNDAY EVENING AS STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STRONG CAA AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW
THE SHORTWAVE. WOULD EXPECT A LARGE STRATOCU DECK TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH A LARGE PART OF MONDAY. ITS
POSSIBLE THAT A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
MAIN COLD POOL.

WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH THE CAA AND CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH EXCEPT FOR POTENTIAL ST/SC AT FKL AND DUJ IN THE PREDAWN...VFR
CONDITIONS WL CONT WITH SFC WIND PRECLUDING FOG WHILE VEERING TO
THE SOUTH...AND GUSTING NR 20 KT BY SAT AFTN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
GENERAL RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH A SUNDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200115
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
915 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY AS
SOUTHERLY WIND WARMS TEMPERATURES UP. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ONLY CHANGES FOR THE LATE EVE UPDATE WERE TO SKY COVER.

BROAD SFC HIGH FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL ENSURE DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...BUT RESULTING SELY FLOW
HAS ADVECTED ATLANTIC MOISTURE ACRS THE ERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS.

LOW PRES DIGGING TWD THE NRN LAKES WL VEER WIND TO THE S ON
SATURDAY WITH WARM ADVCTN DRIVING HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MSTR WL INCR SAT NGT ON SWLY WIND AHEAD OF A CDFNT THAT IS XPCD
TO CROSS THE RGN ON SUN. THE INCRD MSTR WL KEEP TEMPS FROM
FALLING TOO AGGRESSIVELY...AND SHWRS FORMING ALONG THE ADVNG
FRONT MAY MOVE INTO FAR NWRN ZONES AFTR MIDNGT.

500 MB SHRTWV TROF IS PROGGED TO ACQUIRE NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE TILT ON
SUN AS IT CROSSES THE SRN GRTLKS. THE CONCURRENCE OF INCRG SHEAR...MSTR
ADVCTN AHEAD OF CDFNT...AND INCRG LIFT IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE
DVLPMT OF CNVCTV LINE ALONG THE SURGING FRONT.

THE INTENSITY OF THE LINE WL DEPEND UPON AMT OF SUNSHINE THAT
OCCURS. PROVIDED DP CNVCTN DVLPS...THERE WILL BE A POTL FOR DMGG
WIND GUSTS WITH ORGANIZED CNVCTV LINE SEGMENTS. THIS POTL WILL BE
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO ATTM.

POPS WERE INCRD CONSIDERABLY ON SUN IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE TRENDS.
BEST CHC FOR PCPN APPEARS TO BE SUN AFTN AS CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.
ANY SHWRS WL SHIFT EWD BY EARLY EVE...WITH PERHAPS SOME LAKE-EFFECT
SHWRS FORMING ACRS NRN ZONES SUN NGT.

SFC HIGH WL BLD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND BRING AN END TO
PCPN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL DRY AND COOL PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH EXCEPT FOR POTENTIAL ST/SC AT FKL AND DUJ IN THE PREDAWN...VFR
CONDITIONS WL CONT WITH SFC WIND PRECLUDING FOG WHILE VEERING TO
THE SOUTH...AND GUSTING NR 20 KT BY SAT AFTN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
GENERAL RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH A SUNDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200115
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
915 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY AS
SOUTHERLY WIND WARMS TEMPERATURES UP. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ONLY CHANGES FOR THE LATE EVE UPDATE WERE TO SKY COVER.

BROAD SFC HIGH FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL ENSURE DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...BUT RESULTING SELY FLOW
HAS ADVECTED ATLANTIC MOISTURE ACRS THE ERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS.

LOW PRES DIGGING TWD THE NRN LAKES WL VEER WIND TO THE S ON
SATURDAY WITH WARM ADVCTN DRIVING HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MSTR WL INCR SAT NGT ON SWLY WIND AHEAD OF A CDFNT THAT IS XPCD
TO CROSS THE RGN ON SUN. THE INCRD MSTR WL KEEP TEMPS FROM
FALLING TOO AGGRESSIVELY...AND SHWRS FORMING ALONG THE ADVNG
FRONT MAY MOVE INTO FAR NWRN ZONES AFTR MIDNGT.

500 MB SHRTWV TROF IS PROGGED TO ACQUIRE NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE TILT ON
SUN AS IT CROSSES THE SRN GRTLKS. THE CONCURRENCE OF INCRG SHEAR...MSTR
ADVCTN AHEAD OF CDFNT...AND INCRG LIFT IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE
DVLPMT OF CNVCTV LINE ALONG THE SURGING FRONT.

THE INTENSITY OF THE LINE WL DEPEND UPON AMT OF SUNSHINE THAT
OCCURS. PROVIDED DP CNVCTN DVLPS...THERE WILL BE A POTL FOR DMGG
WIND GUSTS WITH ORGANIZED CNVCTV LINE SEGMENTS. THIS POTL WILL BE
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO ATTM.

POPS WERE INCRD CONSIDERABLY ON SUN IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE TRENDS.
BEST CHC FOR PCPN APPEARS TO BE SUN AFTN AS CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.
ANY SHWRS WL SHIFT EWD BY EARLY EVE...WITH PERHAPS SOME LAKE-EFFECT
SHWRS FORMING ACRS NRN ZONES SUN NGT.

SFC HIGH WL BLD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND BRING AN END TO
PCPN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL DRY AND COOL PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH EXCEPT FOR POTENTIAL ST/SC AT FKL AND DUJ IN THE PREDAWN...VFR
CONDITIONS WL CONT WITH SFC WIND PRECLUDING FOG WHILE VEERING TO
THE SOUTH...AND GUSTING NR 20 KT BY SAT AFTN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
GENERAL RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH A SUNDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15






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