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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 041630 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1230 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A TROUGH AT H5 WILL LINGER OVER ERN CANADA TODAY...MAINTAINING
GENERAL WLY FLOW ALOFT IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE WILL BUILD EWD FROM INDIANA/OHIO AND WILL AID IN
DRYING THE LOW LEVELS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MOSTLY
SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR THE DAY.

THE PRIMARY EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE NRN ZONES...WHERE A SECONDARY
FRONTAL SURGE OVERNIGHT WILL BE PRECEDED BY A PLUME OF ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...EVIDENT THIS AFTERNOON BY THE MORE ROBUST CU
FIELD PRESENT. IN THIS AREA...MODELS INDICATE EXISTENCE OF MODEST
INSTABILITY AND GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WITH THE THREE
INGREDIENTS FOR CONVECTION PRESENT...POPS WERE INCREASED TO CHANCE
CATEGORY OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL SURGE TRANSLATES SEWD.

AMID CONTINUED HIGH PRESSURE...WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE CONSIDERABLE
SUN IN THE MORNING...GIVING WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STRONG HEATING YIELD A BROAD STRATOCU
FIELD. DRY AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE JUSTIFY ELIMINATING POPS ALMOST
EVERYWHERE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMA WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE
UNSEASONABLY COOL UPPER TROUGH...AND MINIMA ALSO BELOW NORMAL
OWING TO DRY AIR AND GENERALLY EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING.
A SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM AND MOVE
ACROSS MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS. THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM
HAS SLOWED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...SO SHOWERS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. MODELS STILL WRANGLING WITH THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...STRENGTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL WAVE...AND
IN TURN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF SHOWERS. MODELS ARE IN MODERATE
AGREEMENT THAT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE MOST UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH
OF THE SURFACE LOW...SO DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS STILL TRYING TO DETERMINE A SOLUTION FOR A SURFACE WAVE
WHICH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AFTER THIS
POINT...A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST DUE TO MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN
TIMING OF SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE THE DRYING TREND
CURRENTLY OBSERVED AT ALL TERMINALS...LEADING TO A VFR FCST FOR
ALL TAFS. AMID DEEP MIXING...WNWLY WIND WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
GUSTY TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

A PLUME OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF A SECONDARY FRONTAL SURGE MAY
GENERATE SHOWERS AT KFKL/KDUJ OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS OTHERWISE ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KPBZ RADAR REMAINS DOWN. TECHNICIANS ADVISE THAT A RETURN TO
SERVICE IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

GREGS KNOB NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS OFF THE AIR WITH A FAILED
TRANSMITTER.  RESTORATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KRAMAR




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 041630 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1230 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A TROUGH AT H5 WILL LINGER OVER ERN CANADA TODAY...MAINTAINING
GENERAL WLY FLOW ALOFT IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE WILL BUILD EWD FROM INDIANA/OHIO AND WILL AID IN
DRYING THE LOW LEVELS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MOSTLY
SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR THE DAY.

THE PRIMARY EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE NRN ZONES...WHERE A SECONDARY
FRONTAL SURGE OVERNIGHT WILL BE PRECEDED BY A PLUME OF ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...EVIDENT THIS AFTERNOON BY THE MORE ROBUST CU
FIELD PRESENT. IN THIS AREA...MODELS INDICATE EXISTENCE OF MODEST
INSTABILITY AND GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WITH THE THREE
INGREDIENTS FOR CONVECTION PRESENT...POPS WERE INCREASED TO CHANCE
CATEGORY OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL SURGE TRANSLATES SEWD.

AMID CONTINUED HIGH PRESSURE...WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE CONSIDERABLE
SUN IN THE MORNING...GIVING WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STRONG HEATING YIELD A BROAD STRATOCU
FIELD. DRY AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE JUSTIFY ELIMINATING POPS ALMOST
EVERYWHERE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMA WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE
UNSEASONABLY COOL UPPER TROUGH...AND MINIMA ALSO BELOW NORMAL
OWING TO DRY AIR AND GENERALLY EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING.
A SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM AND MOVE
ACROSS MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS. THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM
HAS SLOWED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...SO SHOWERS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. MODELS STILL WRANGLING WITH THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...STRENGTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL WAVE...AND
IN TURN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF SHOWERS. MODELS ARE IN MODERATE
AGREEMENT THAT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE MOST UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH
OF THE SURFACE LOW...SO DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS STILL TRYING TO DETERMINE A SOLUTION FOR A SURFACE WAVE
WHICH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AFTER THIS
POINT...A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST DUE TO MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN
TIMING OF SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE THE DRYING TREND
CURRENTLY OBSERVED AT ALL TERMINALS...LEADING TO A VFR FCST FOR
ALL TAFS. AMID DEEP MIXING...WNWLY WIND WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
GUSTY TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

A PLUME OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF A SECONDARY FRONTAL SURGE MAY
GENERATE SHOWERS AT KFKL/KDUJ OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS OTHERWISE ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KPBZ RADAR REMAINS DOWN. TECHNICIANS ADVISE THAT A RETURN TO
SERVICE IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

GREGS KNOB NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS OFF THE AIR WITH A FAILED
TRANSMITTER.  RESTORATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KRAMAR





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 041424 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1024 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND GENERALLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A TROUGH AT H5 WILL LINGER OVER ERN CANADA TODAY...MAINTAINING
GENERAL WLY FLOW ALOFT IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE WILL BUILD EWD FROM INDIANA/OHIO AND WILL AID IN
DRYING THE LOW LEVELS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MOSTLY
SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR THE DAY.

THE PRIMARY EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE NRN ZONES...WHERE A SECONDARY
FRONTAL SURGE OVERNIGHT WILL BE PRECEDED BY A PLUME OF ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. IN THIS AREA...MODELS INDICATE PRESENCE OF
MODEST INSTABILITY AND GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WITH THE
THREE INGREDIENTS FOR CONVECTION PRESENT...POPS WERE INCREASED TO
CHANCE CATEGORY OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL SURGE TRANSLATES SEWD.

AMID CONTINUED HIGH PRESSURE...WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE CONSIDERABLE
SUN IN THE MORNING...GIVING WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STRONG HEATING YIELD A BROAD STRATOCU
FIELD. DRY AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE JUSTIFY ELIMINATING POPS ALMOST
EVERYWHERE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMA WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE
UNSEASONABLY COOL UPPER TROUGH...AND MINIMA ALSO BELOW NORMAL
OWING TO DRY AIR AND GENERALLY EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING.
A SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM AND MOVE
ACROSS MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS. THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM
HAS SLOWED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...SO SHOWERS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. MODELS STILL WRANGLING WITH THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...STRENGTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL WAVE...AND
IN TURN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF SHOWERS. MODELS ARE IN MODERATE
AGREEMENT THAT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE MOST UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH
OF THE SURFACE LOW...SO DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS STILL TRYING TO DETERMINE A SOLUTION FOR A SURFACE WAVE
WHICH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AFTER THIS
POINT...A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST DUE TO MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN
TIMING OF SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE THE DRYING TREND
CURRENTLY OBSERVED AT ALL TERMINALS...LEADING TO A VFR FCST FOR
ALL TAFS. AMID DEEP MIXING...WNWLY WIND WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
GUSTY TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

A PLUME OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF A SECONDARY FRONTAL SURGE MAY
GENERATE SHOWERS AT KFKL/KDUJ OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS OTHERWISE ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KPBZ RADAR REMAINS DOWN. TECHNICIANS ADVISE THAT A RETURN TO
SERVICE IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

GREGS KNOB NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS OFF THE AIR WITH A FAILED
TRANSMITTER.  RESTORATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KRAMAR





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 041424 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1024 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND GENERALLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A TROUGH AT H5 WILL LINGER OVER ERN CANADA TODAY...MAINTAINING
GENERAL WLY FLOW ALOFT IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE WILL BUILD EWD FROM INDIANA/OHIO AND WILL AID IN
DRYING THE LOW LEVELS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MOSTLY
SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR THE DAY.

THE PRIMARY EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE NRN ZONES...WHERE A SECONDARY
FRONTAL SURGE OVERNIGHT WILL BE PRECEDED BY A PLUME OF ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. IN THIS AREA...MODELS INDICATE PRESENCE OF
MODEST INSTABILITY AND GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WITH THE
THREE INGREDIENTS FOR CONVECTION PRESENT...POPS WERE INCREASED TO
CHANCE CATEGORY OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL SURGE TRANSLATES SEWD.

AMID CONTINUED HIGH PRESSURE...WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE CONSIDERABLE
SUN IN THE MORNING...GIVING WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STRONG HEATING YIELD A BROAD STRATOCU
FIELD. DRY AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE JUSTIFY ELIMINATING POPS ALMOST
EVERYWHERE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMA WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE
UNSEASONABLY COOL UPPER TROUGH...AND MINIMA ALSO BELOW NORMAL
OWING TO DRY AIR AND GENERALLY EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING.
A SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM AND MOVE
ACROSS MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS. THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM
HAS SLOWED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...SO SHOWERS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. MODELS STILL WRANGLING WITH THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...STRENGTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL WAVE...AND
IN TURN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF SHOWERS. MODELS ARE IN MODERATE
AGREEMENT THAT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE MOST UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH
OF THE SURFACE LOW...SO DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS STILL TRYING TO DETERMINE A SOLUTION FOR A SURFACE WAVE
WHICH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AFTER THIS
POINT...A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST DUE TO MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN
TIMING OF SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE THE DRYING TREND
CURRENTLY OBSERVED AT ALL TERMINALS...LEADING TO A VFR FCST FOR
ALL TAFS. AMID DEEP MIXING...WNWLY WIND WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
GUSTY TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

A PLUME OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF A SECONDARY FRONTAL SURGE MAY
GENERATE SHOWERS AT KFKL/KDUJ OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS OTHERWISE ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KPBZ RADAR REMAINS DOWN. TECHNICIANS ADVISE THAT A RETURN TO
SERVICE IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

GREGS KNOB NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS OFF THE AIR WITH A FAILED
TRANSMITTER.  RESTORATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KRAMAR




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 041424 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1024 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND GENERALLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A TROUGH AT H5 WILL LINGER OVER ERN CANADA TODAY...MAINTAINING
GENERAL WLY FLOW ALOFT IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE WILL BUILD EWD FROM INDIANA/OHIO AND WILL AID IN
DRYING THE LOW LEVELS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MOSTLY
SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR THE DAY.

THE PRIMARY EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE NRN ZONES...WHERE A SECONDARY
FRONTAL SURGE OVERNIGHT WILL BE PRECEDED BY A PLUME OF ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. IN THIS AREA...MODELS INDICATE PRESENCE OF
MODEST INSTABILITY AND GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WITH THE
THREE INGREDIENTS FOR CONVECTION PRESENT...POPS WERE INCREASED TO
CHANCE CATEGORY OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL SURGE TRANSLATES SEWD.

AMID CONTINUED HIGH PRESSURE...WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE CONSIDERABLE
SUN IN THE MORNING...GIVING WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STRONG HEATING YIELD A BROAD STRATOCU
FIELD. DRY AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE JUSTIFY ELIMINATING POPS ALMOST
EVERYWHERE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMA WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE
UNSEASONABLY COOL UPPER TROUGH...AND MINIMA ALSO BELOW NORMAL
OWING TO DRY AIR AND GENERALLY EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING.
A SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM AND MOVE
ACROSS MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS. THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM
HAS SLOWED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...SO SHOWERS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. MODELS STILL WRANGLING WITH THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...STRENGTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL WAVE...AND
IN TURN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF SHOWERS. MODELS ARE IN MODERATE
AGREEMENT THAT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE MOST UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH
OF THE SURFACE LOW...SO DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS STILL TRYING TO DETERMINE A SOLUTION FOR A SURFACE WAVE
WHICH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AFTER THIS
POINT...A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST DUE TO MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN
TIMING OF SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE THE DRYING TREND
CURRENTLY OBSERVED AT ALL TERMINALS...LEADING TO A VFR FCST FOR
ALL TAFS. AMID DEEP MIXING...WNWLY WIND WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
GUSTY TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

A PLUME OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF A SECONDARY FRONTAL SURGE MAY
GENERATE SHOWERS AT KFKL/KDUJ OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS OTHERWISE ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KPBZ RADAR REMAINS DOWN. TECHNICIANS ADVISE THAT A RETURN TO
SERVICE IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

GREGS KNOB NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS OFF THE AIR WITH A FAILED
TRANSMITTER.  RESTORATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KRAMAR




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 041019
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
619 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A DRY AND MORE COMFORTABLE DAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD.
THIS SHOULD BRING DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN AS TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO
REACH 80 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NEXT WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH
MAY PRODUCE A SHOWER OR TWO MAINLY OVER THE NORTH. MOISTURE AND
LIFT ARE LIMITED...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE.

ANOTHER DRY AND COMFORTABLE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY. WILL LIKELY SEE CU DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AS COOLER AIR
ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION.

DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING.
SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND MOVE ACROSS
MISSOURI AND INTO ILLINOIS. THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM
HAS SLOWED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...SO SHOWERS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. MODELS STILL WRANGLING WITH THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE...AND
IN TURN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF SHOWERS. MODELS ARE IN MODERATE
AGREEMENT THAT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE REAL UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH
OF THE SURFACE LOW...SO DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS STILL TRYING TO DETERMINE A SOLUTION FOR A SURFACE WAVE
WHICH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AFTER THIS
POINT...A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST DUE TO MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN
TIMING OF SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE TAF SITES...SAVE DUJ...ARE ESCAPING FOG FOR THE MOST PART THIS
MORNING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. SOME OF THE SMALLER
AIRPORTS ARE STILL SEEING REDUCED VISIBILITY THOUGH...MAINLY NORTH
OF PIT. SOME VFR SC/AC CONTINUES TO LINGER SOUTH OF THE CITY. ANY
FOG/LOW CLOUD WILL BURN OFF BY 14Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
FORECAST FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH SCT/BKN VFR CU.
WNW BREEZES WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS IN SOME LOCATIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS WEST OF PIT MAY SEE WINDS DIE OFF
ENOUGH TONIGHT FOR LATE FOG...WHILE PIT ON EAST SHOULD REMAIN
STIRRED ENOUGH TO PREVENT IT. AN ISOLATED VFR SHOWER IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AT FKL/DUJ AS WELL.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
THURSDAY UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KPBZ RADAR REMAINS DOWN. TROUBLESHOOTING IS ONGOING AND
RESTORATION TIME IS UNKNOWN.

GREGS KNOB NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS OFF THE AIR WITH A FAILED
TRANSMITTER.  RESTORATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 041019
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
619 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A DRY AND MORE COMFORTABLE DAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD.
THIS SHOULD BRING DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN AS TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO
REACH 80 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NEXT WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH
MAY PRODUCE A SHOWER OR TWO MAINLY OVER THE NORTH. MOISTURE AND
LIFT ARE LIMITED...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE.

ANOTHER DRY AND COMFORTABLE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY. WILL LIKELY SEE CU DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AS COOLER AIR
ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION.

DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING.
SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND MOVE ACROSS
MISSOURI AND INTO ILLINOIS. THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM
HAS SLOWED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...SO SHOWERS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. MODELS STILL WRANGLING WITH THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE...AND
IN TURN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF SHOWERS. MODELS ARE IN MODERATE
AGREEMENT THAT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE REAL UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH
OF THE SURFACE LOW...SO DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS STILL TRYING TO DETERMINE A SOLUTION FOR A SURFACE WAVE
WHICH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AFTER THIS
POINT...A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST DUE TO MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN
TIMING OF SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE TAF SITES...SAVE DUJ...ARE ESCAPING FOG FOR THE MOST PART THIS
MORNING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. SOME OF THE SMALLER
AIRPORTS ARE STILL SEEING REDUCED VISIBILITY THOUGH...MAINLY NORTH
OF PIT. SOME VFR SC/AC CONTINUES TO LINGER SOUTH OF THE CITY. ANY
FOG/LOW CLOUD WILL BURN OFF BY 14Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
FORECAST FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH SCT/BKN VFR CU.
WNW BREEZES WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS IN SOME LOCATIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS WEST OF PIT MAY SEE WINDS DIE OFF
ENOUGH TONIGHT FOR LATE FOG...WHILE PIT ON EAST SHOULD REMAIN
STIRRED ENOUGH TO PREVENT IT. AN ISOLATED VFR SHOWER IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AT FKL/DUJ AS WELL.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
THURSDAY UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KPBZ RADAR REMAINS DOWN. TROUBLESHOOTING IS ONGOING AND
RESTORATION TIME IS UNKNOWN.

GREGS KNOB NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS OFF THE AIR WITH A FAILED
TRANSMITTER.  RESTORATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 040808
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
408 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A DRY AND MORE COMFORTABLE DAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD.
THIS SHOULD BRING DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN AS TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO
REACH 80 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NEXT WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH
MAY PRODUCE A SHOWER OR TWO MAINLY OVER THE NORTH. MOISTURE AND
LIFT ARE LIMITED...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE.

ANOTHER DRY AND COMFORTABLE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY. WILL LIKELY SEE CU DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AS COOLER AIR
ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION.

DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING.
SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND MOVE ACROSS
MISSOURI AND INTO ILLINOIS. THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM
HAS SLOWED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...SO SHOWERS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. MODELS STILL WRANGLING WITH THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE...AND
IN TURN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF SHOWERS. MODELS ARE IN MODERATE
AGREEMENT THAT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE REAL UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH
OF THE SURFACE LOW...SO DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS STILL TRYING TO DETERMINE A SOLUTION FOR A SURFACE WAVE
WHICH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AFTER THIS
POINT...A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST DUE TO MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN
TIMING OF SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR/MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE THROUGH DAWN...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
PORTS OF DUJ AND LBE. COULD SEE FOG MVFR FOG AT OTHER LOCATIONS...
ALTHOUGH LOWERING SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAKE THE FORMATION OF
WIDESPREAD FOG MUCH LESS LIKELY. ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
THURSDAY UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KPBZ RADAR REMAINS DOWN. TROUBLESHOOTING IS ONGOING AND
RESTORATION TIME IS UNKNOWN.

GREGS KNOB NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS OFF THE AIR WITH A FAILED
TRANSMITTER.  RESTORATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 040808
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
408 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A DRY AND MORE COMFORTABLE DAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD.
THIS SHOULD BRING DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN AS TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO
REACH 80 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NEXT WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH
MAY PRODUCE A SHOWER OR TWO MAINLY OVER THE NORTH. MOISTURE AND
LIFT ARE LIMITED...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE.

ANOTHER DRY AND COMFORTABLE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY. WILL LIKELY SEE CU DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AS COOLER AIR
ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION.

DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING.
SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND MOVE ACROSS
MISSOURI AND INTO ILLINOIS. THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM
HAS SLOWED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...SO SHOWERS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. MODELS STILL WRANGLING WITH THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE...AND
IN TURN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF SHOWERS. MODELS ARE IN MODERATE
AGREEMENT THAT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE REAL UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH
OF THE SURFACE LOW...SO DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS STILL TRYING TO DETERMINE A SOLUTION FOR A SURFACE WAVE
WHICH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AFTER THIS
POINT...A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST DUE TO MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN
TIMING OF SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR/MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE THROUGH DAWN...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
PORTS OF DUJ AND LBE. COULD SEE FOG MVFR FOG AT OTHER LOCATIONS...
ALTHOUGH LOWERING SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAKE THE FORMATION OF
WIDESPREAD FOG MUCH LESS LIKELY. ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
THURSDAY UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KPBZ RADAR REMAINS DOWN. TROUBLESHOOTING IS ONGOING AND
RESTORATION TIME IS UNKNOWN.

GREGS KNOB NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS OFF THE AIR WITH A FAILED
TRANSMITTER.  RESTORATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 040525 AAD
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
125 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. DRY WEATHER WILL
SETTLE IN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
STORMS LINGERING OVER SOUTHWESTERN PA AND THE RIDGES OF NORTHERN
WV AND WESTERN MARYLAND. THESE STORMS CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD
ALONG THE PASSING COLD FRONT. STORMS CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AND WOULD EXPECT ALL THE ACTIVITY TO CLEAR
THE AREA BETWEEN 2 AND 3AM. SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR ONCE THE
STORMS EXIT AND WOULD EXPECT SOME FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

A DRY DAY TUESDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD. THIS SHOULD
BRING DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN AS TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO REACH 80
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NEXT WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH
MAY PRODUCE A SHOWER OR TWO MAINLY OVER THE NORTH. MOISTURE AND
LIFT ARE LIMITED...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE.

ANOTHER DRY AND COMFORTABLE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY. WILL LIKELY SEE CU DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AS COOLER AIR
ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION.

DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING.
SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND MOVE ACROSS
MISSOURI AND INTO ILLINOIS. THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM
HAS SLOWED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...SO SHOWERS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. MODELS STILL WRANGLING WITH THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE...AND
IN TURN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF SHOWERS. MODELS ARE IN MODERATE
AGREEMENT THAT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE REAL UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH
OF THE SURFACE LOW...SO DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS STILL TRYING TO DETERMINE A SOLUTION FOR A SURFACE WAVE
WHICH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AFTER THIS
POINT...A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST DUE TO MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN
TIMING OF SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS/STORMS ONLY EXPECTED TO EFFECT LBE FOR FIRST HOUR OF
FORECAST. FOG WILL BECOME A CONCERN AT MOST PORTS OVERNIGHT DUE TO
EARLIER RAINFALL AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS THAT ARE VERY SLOWLY
DECREASING. HAVE HIT THE USUAL SUSPECTS RATHER HARD WITH IFR TO
MVFR CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY DROPPING LOWER AS DAWN APPROACHES.
ELSEWHERE WILL KEEP IN A MENTION OF MVFR FOG.

ONCE FOG BURNS OFF AFTER SUNRISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
THURSDAY UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KPBZ RADAR REMAINS DOWN. TROUBLESHOOTING IS ONGOING AND
RESTORATION TIME IS UNKNOWN.

GREGS KNOB NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS OFF THE AIR WITH A FAILED
TRANSMITTER.  RESTORATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 040525 AAD
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
125 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. DRY WEATHER WILL
SETTLE IN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
STORMS LINGERING OVER SOUTHWESTERN PA AND THE RIDGES OF NORTHERN
WV AND WESTERN MARYLAND. THESE STORMS CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD
ALONG THE PASSING COLD FRONT. STORMS CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AND WOULD EXPECT ALL THE ACTIVITY TO CLEAR
THE AREA BETWEEN 2 AND 3AM. SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR ONCE THE
STORMS EXIT AND WOULD EXPECT SOME FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

A DRY DAY TUESDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD. THIS SHOULD
BRING DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN AS TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO REACH 80
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NEXT WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH
MAY PRODUCE A SHOWER OR TWO MAINLY OVER THE NORTH. MOISTURE AND
LIFT ARE LIMITED...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE.

ANOTHER DRY AND COMFORTABLE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY. WILL LIKELY SEE CU DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AS COOLER AIR
ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION.

DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING.
SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND MOVE ACROSS
MISSOURI AND INTO ILLINOIS. THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM
HAS SLOWED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...SO SHOWERS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. MODELS STILL WRANGLING WITH THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE...AND
IN TURN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF SHOWERS. MODELS ARE IN MODERATE
AGREEMENT THAT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE REAL UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH
OF THE SURFACE LOW...SO DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS STILL TRYING TO DETERMINE A SOLUTION FOR A SURFACE WAVE
WHICH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AFTER THIS
POINT...A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST DUE TO MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN
TIMING OF SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS/STORMS ONLY EXPECTED TO EFFECT LBE FOR FIRST HOUR OF
FORECAST. FOG WILL BECOME A CONCERN AT MOST PORTS OVERNIGHT DUE TO
EARLIER RAINFALL AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS THAT ARE VERY SLOWLY
DECREASING. HAVE HIT THE USUAL SUSPECTS RATHER HARD WITH IFR TO
MVFR CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY DROPPING LOWER AS DAWN APPROACHES.
ELSEWHERE WILL KEEP IN A MENTION OF MVFR FOG.

ONCE FOG BURNS OFF AFTER SUNRISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
THURSDAY UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KPBZ RADAR REMAINS DOWN. TROUBLESHOOTING IS ONGOING AND
RESTORATION TIME IS UNKNOWN.

GREGS KNOB NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS OFF THE AIR WITH A FAILED
TRANSMITTER.  RESTORATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 040218 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1018 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. DRY WEATHER WILL
SETTLE IN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LINE OF STORMS EXITING OHIO AND MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL PA. LINE WILL CONTINUE
TO WORK ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL PA LATE TONIGHT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD...RECEIVING A PUSH FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO NORTHERN PA. EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO EJECT THE EAST
LATER TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL EXIT WITH THE ACTIVITY AND DRIER AIR AT
THE SURFACE WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN.

A DRIER DAY LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
STARTS TO TAKE HOLD. THIS SHOULD BRING DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN AS
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO GET UP TOWARD 80F. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FADE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
SLIDES ACROSS THE I 70 CORRIDOR. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE THUS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A
SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.

MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ARE SPARSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER
CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS
RUNS. WITH THE TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES
IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SEVERAL SITES THROUGH EVENING...WITH
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORM CORES. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE AS STIFF SOUTHWEST BREEZES SHOULD TURN
WEST-NORTHWEST AS A FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
THURSDAY UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KPBZ RADAR REMAINS DOWN. TROUBLESHOOTING IS ONGOING AND
RESTORATION TIME IS UNKNOWN.

GREGS KNOB NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS OFF THE AIR WITH A FAILED
TRANSMITTER.  RESTORATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 040218 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1018 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. DRY WEATHER WILL
SETTLE IN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LINE OF STORMS EXITING OHIO AND MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL PA. LINE WILL CONTINUE
TO WORK ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL PA LATE TONIGHT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD...RECEIVING A PUSH FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO NORTHERN PA. EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO EJECT THE EAST
LATER TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL EXIT WITH THE ACTIVITY AND DRIER AIR AT
THE SURFACE WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN.

A DRIER DAY LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
STARTS TO TAKE HOLD. THIS SHOULD BRING DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN AS
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO GET UP TOWARD 80F. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FADE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
SLIDES ACROSS THE I 70 CORRIDOR. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE THUS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A
SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.

MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ARE SPARSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER
CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS
RUNS. WITH THE TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES
IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SEVERAL SITES THROUGH EVENING...WITH
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORM CORES. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE AS STIFF SOUTHWEST BREEZES SHOULD TURN
WEST-NORTHWEST AS A FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
THURSDAY UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KPBZ RADAR REMAINS DOWN. TROUBLESHOOTING IS ONGOING AND
RESTORATION TIME IS UNKNOWN.

GREGS KNOB NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS OFF THE AIR WITH A FAILED
TRANSMITTER.  RESTORATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 040032
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
832 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE LATER TODAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MULTI-CELLULAR DEVELOPMENT HAS DOMINATED THE EVENING SO
FAR...WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING LARGELY ALONG THE APEX OF A
BUBBLE OF MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS THAT HAS ADVANCED ACROSS
EASTERN OHIO AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. OUTSIDE OF THIS
INTERFACE...LITTLE HAS DEVELOPED...THOUGH AREAS TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF IT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS THE BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG FARTHER
SOUTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY POISED TO OUR
NORTHWEST. THUS...POPS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN FOCUSED ALONG THE
INTERFACE OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE EVENING...BEFORE SAGGING
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

A DRIER DAY LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
STARTS TO TAKE HOLD. THIS SHOULD BRING DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN AS
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO GET UP TOWARD 80F. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FADE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
SLIDES ACROSS THE I 70 CORRIDOR. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE THUS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A
SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.

MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ARE SPARSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER
CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS
RUNS. WITH THE TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES
IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SEVERAL SITES THROUGH EVENING...WITH
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORM CORES. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE AS STIFF SOUTHWEST BREEZES SHOULD TURN
WEST-NORTHWEST AS A FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
THURSDAY UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KPBZ RADAR REMAINS DOWN. TROUBLESHOOTING IS ONGOING AND
RESTORATION TIME IS UNKNOWN.

GREGS KNOB NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS OFF THE AIR WITH A FAILED
TRANSMITTER.  RESTORATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 040032
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
832 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE LATER TODAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MULTI-CELLULAR DEVELOPMENT HAS DOMINATED THE EVENING SO
FAR...WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING LARGELY ALONG THE APEX OF A
BUBBLE OF MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS THAT HAS ADVANCED ACROSS
EASTERN OHIO AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. OUTSIDE OF THIS
INTERFACE...LITTLE HAS DEVELOPED...THOUGH AREAS TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF IT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS THE BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG FARTHER
SOUTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY POISED TO OUR
NORTHWEST. THUS...POPS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN FOCUSED ALONG THE
INTERFACE OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE EVENING...BEFORE SAGGING
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

A DRIER DAY LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
STARTS TO TAKE HOLD. THIS SHOULD BRING DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN AS
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO GET UP TOWARD 80F. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FADE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
SLIDES ACROSS THE I 70 CORRIDOR. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE THUS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A
SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.

MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ARE SPARSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER
CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS
RUNS. WITH THE TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES
IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SEVERAL SITES THROUGH EVENING...WITH
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORM CORES. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE AS STIFF SOUTHWEST BREEZES SHOULD TURN
WEST-NORTHWEST AS A FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
THURSDAY UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KPBZ RADAR REMAINS DOWN. TROUBLESHOOTING IS ONGOING AND
RESTORATION TIME IS UNKNOWN.

GREGS KNOB NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS OFF THE AIR WITH A FAILED
TRANSMITTER.  RESTORATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 032158
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
558 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE LATER TODAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MULTI-CELLULAR DEVELOPMENT HAS DOMINATED THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SO FAR...WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING LARGELY ALONG THE APEX
OF A BUBBLE OF MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS THAT HAS ADVANCED ACROSS
EASTERN OHIO AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. OUTSIDE OF THIS
INTERFACE...LITTLE HAS DEVELOPED...THOUGH AREAS TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF IT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS THE BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG FARTHER
SOUTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY POISED TO OUR
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW OF HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING TO SAG TOWARD THE RIDGES
OVERNIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES DISAPPEARING BY MORNING.

A DRIER DAY LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
STARTS TO TAKE HOLD. THIS SHOULD BRING DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN AS
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO GET UP TOWARD 80F. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FADE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
SLIDES ACROSS THE I 70 CORRIDOR. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE THUS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A
SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.

MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ARE SPARSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER
CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS
RUNS. WITH THE TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES
IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SEVERAL SITES THROUGH EVENING...WITH
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORM CORES. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE AS STIFF SOUTHWEST BREEZES SHOULD TURN
WEST-NORTHWEST AS A FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
THURSDAY UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KPBZ RADAR REMAINS DOWN. TROUBLESHOOTING IS ONGOING AND
RESTORATION TIME IS UNKNOWN.

GREGS KNOB NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS OFF THE AIR WITH A FAILED
TRANSMITTER.  RESTORATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 032158
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
558 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE LATER TODAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MULTI-CELLULAR DEVELOPMENT HAS DOMINATED THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SO FAR...WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING LARGELY ALONG THE APEX
OF A BUBBLE OF MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS THAT HAS ADVANCED ACROSS
EASTERN OHIO AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. OUTSIDE OF THIS
INTERFACE...LITTLE HAS DEVELOPED...THOUGH AREAS TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF IT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS THE BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG FARTHER
SOUTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY POISED TO OUR
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW OF HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING TO SAG TOWARD THE RIDGES
OVERNIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES DISAPPEARING BY MORNING.

A DRIER DAY LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
STARTS TO TAKE HOLD. THIS SHOULD BRING DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN AS
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO GET UP TOWARD 80F. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FADE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
SLIDES ACROSS THE I 70 CORRIDOR. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE THUS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A
SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.

MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ARE SPARSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER
CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS
RUNS. WITH THE TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES
IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SEVERAL SITES THROUGH EVENING...WITH
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORM CORES. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE AS STIFF SOUTHWEST BREEZES SHOULD TURN
WEST-NORTHWEST AS A FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
THURSDAY UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KPBZ RADAR REMAINS DOWN. TROUBLESHOOTING IS ONGOING AND
RESTORATION TIME IS UNKNOWN.

GREGS KNOB NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS OFF THE AIR WITH A FAILED
TRANSMITTER.  RESTORATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031802
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
202 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
LATER TODAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AFTERNOON FOCUS IS ON CONVECTION POTENTIAL IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
SLATED FOR EVENING PASSAGE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. MODELS
HAVE...AS USUAL...STRUGGLED WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY RESULTING
FROM BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE PROFILES...ALTHOUGH MODEST DEEP LAYER
SHEAR HAS DEVELOPED AS ANTICIPATED.

NEVERTHELESS...FILTERED INSOLATION WITH LOW TO MID 60S F DEWPOINTS
WILL YIELD SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR CONVECTION AND POSSIBLY BALANCE
WITH THE SHEAR FOR SOME ORGANIZED STORMS. THE PRIMARY LIMITING
FACTOR STILL SEEMS TO BE THE TIMING OF UPPER SHORTWAVE TROF
AXIS...SUBSIDENCE AREA OF WHICH APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING ACROSS
OHIO AS PER SATELLITE IMAGERY. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE SPC SLIGHT
RISK PROGNOSIS LOOKS REASONABLE FOR NOW WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT
COMING FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FADE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
SLIDES ACROSS THE I 70 CORRIDOR. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE THUS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A
SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.

MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ARE SPARSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER
CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS
RUNS. WITH THE TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES
IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR WILL DOMINATE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR A
SHORT TIME LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN ADVANCE OF
THE COLD FRONT. ANY DEGRADED CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
RAPIDLY IMPROVE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
THURSDAY UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KPBZ RADAR REMAINS DOWN. TROUBLESHOOTING IS ONGOING AND
RESTORATION TIME IS UNKNOWN.

GREGS KNOB NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS OFF THE AIR WITHA FAILED
TRANSMITTER.  RESTORATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031802
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
202 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
LATER TODAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AFTERNOON FOCUS IS ON CONVECTION POTENTIAL IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
SLATED FOR EVENING PASSAGE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. MODELS
HAVE...AS USUAL...STRUGGLED WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY RESULTING
FROM BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE PROFILES...ALTHOUGH MODEST DEEP LAYER
SHEAR HAS DEVELOPED AS ANTICIPATED.

NEVERTHELESS...FILTERED INSOLATION WITH LOW TO MID 60S F DEWPOINTS
WILL YIELD SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR CONVECTION AND POSSIBLY BALANCE
WITH THE SHEAR FOR SOME ORGANIZED STORMS. THE PRIMARY LIMITING
FACTOR STILL SEEMS TO BE THE TIMING OF UPPER SHORTWAVE TROF
AXIS...SUBSIDENCE AREA OF WHICH APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING ACROSS
OHIO AS PER SATELLITE IMAGERY. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE SPC SLIGHT
RISK PROGNOSIS LOOKS REASONABLE FOR NOW WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT
COMING FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FADE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
SLIDES ACROSS THE I 70 CORRIDOR. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE THUS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A
SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.

MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ARE SPARSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER
CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS
RUNS. WITH THE TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES
IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR WILL DOMINATE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR A
SHORT TIME LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN ADVANCE OF
THE COLD FRONT. ANY DEGRADED CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
RAPIDLY IMPROVE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
THURSDAY UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KPBZ RADAR REMAINS DOWN. TROUBLESHOOTING IS ONGOING AND
RESTORATION TIME IS UNKNOWN.

GREGS KNOB NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS OFF THE AIR WITHA FAILED
TRANSMITTER.  RESTORATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031603
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1203 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
LATER TODAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AFTERNOON FOCUS IS ON CONVECTION POTENTIAL IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
SLATED FOR EVENING PASSAGE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. MODELS
HAVE...AS USUAL...STRUGGLED WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY RESULTING
FROM BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE PROFILES...ALTHOUGH MODEST DEEP LAYER
SHEAR HAS DEVELOPED AS ANTICIPATED.

NEVERTHELESS...FILTERED INSOLATION WITH LOW TO MID 60S F DEWPOINTS
WILL YIELD SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR CONVECTION AND POSSIBLY BALANCE
WITH THE SHEAR FOR SOME ORGANIZED STORMS. THE PRIMARY LIMITING
FACTOR STILL SEEMS TO BE THE TIMING OF UPPER SHORTWAVE TROF
AXIS...SUBSIDENCE AREA OF WHICH APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING ACROSS
OHIO AS PER SATELLITE IMAGERY. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE SPC SLIGHT
RISK PROGNOSIS LOOKS REASONABLE FOR NOW WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT
COMING FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FADE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
SLIDES ACROSS THE I 70 CORRIDOR. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE THUS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A
SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.

MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ARE SPARSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER
CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS
RUNS. WITH THE TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES
IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WILL DOMINATE UNTIL CONVECTION DEVELOPS WITH THE ADVANCE OF
THE COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTHWARD...ALTHOUGH
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL MAY LINGER FOR SOUTHERN PORTS AS BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS POOLED IN VICINITY OF...AND JUST NORTH OF
THE FRONT INTO THE MORNING.

AND DEGRADED CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE ON TUESDAY WITH
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031603
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1203 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
LATER TODAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AFTERNOON FOCUS IS ON CONVECTION POTENTIAL IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
SLATED FOR EVENING PASSAGE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. MODELS
HAVE...AS USUAL...STRUGGLED WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY RESULTING
FROM BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE PROFILES...ALTHOUGH MODEST DEEP LAYER
SHEAR HAS DEVELOPED AS ANTICIPATED.

NEVERTHELESS...FILTERED INSOLATION WITH LOW TO MID 60S F DEWPOINTS
WILL YIELD SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR CONVECTION AND POSSIBLY BALANCE
WITH THE SHEAR FOR SOME ORGANIZED STORMS. THE PRIMARY LIMITING
FACTOR STILL SEEMS TO BE THE TIMING OF UPPER SHORTWAVE TROF
AXIS...SUBSIDENCE AREA OF WHICH APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING ACROSS
OHIO AS PER SATELLITE IMAGERY. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE SPC SLIGHT
RISK PROGNOSIS LOOKS REASONABLE FOR NOW WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT
COMING FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FADE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
SLIDES ACROSS THE I 70 CORRIDOR. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE THUS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A
SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.

MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ARE SPARSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER
CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS
RUNS. WITH THE TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES
IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WILL DOMINATE UNTIL CONVECTION DEVELOPS WITH THE ADVANCE OF
THE COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTHWARD...ALTHOUGH
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL MAY LINGER FOR SOUTHERN PORTS AS BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS POOLED IN VICINITY OF...AND JUST NORTH OF
THE FRONT INTO THE MORNING.

AND DEGRADED CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE ON TUESDAY WITH
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031349
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
949 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATER TODAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ONLY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE MID MORNING UPDATE WERE ADJUSTMENTS TO
MORNING POPS BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND HIGH RES TRENDS.

PREVIOUS...
FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO FIRE IN ADVANCE AND ALONG THAT FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE
TO WORK WITH...ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR MODEST
WIND SHEAR...WHICH MAY HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS SHOULD SUFFICIENT
UPDRAFT STRENGTH DEVELOPMENT.

ONLY LIMITING FACTORS INCLUDE RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER BLANKETING THE
REGION THIS MORNING AND THE TIMING OF UPPER SHORTWAVE
SUPPORT...WHICH HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO
MODEL. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE SPC SLIGHT RISK PROGNOSIS LOOKS
REASONABLE FOR NOW WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT COMING FROM WIND GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FADE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
FINALLY SLIDES ACROSS THE I 70 CORRIDOR. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
THUS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A
SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.

MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ARE SPARSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER
CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS
RUNS. WITH THE TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES
IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WILL DOMINATE UNTIL CONVECTION DEVELOPS WITH THE ADVANCE OF
THE COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTHWARD...ALTHOUGH
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL MAY LINGER FOR SOUTHERN PORTS AS BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS POOLED IN VICINITY OF...AND JUST NORTH OF
THE FRONT INTO THE MORNING.

AND DEGRADED CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE ON TUESDAY WITH
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031349
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
949 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATER TODAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ONLY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE MID MORNING UPDATE WERE ADJUSTMENTS TO
MORNING POPS BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND HIGH RES TRENDS.

PREVIOUS...
FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO FIRE IN ADVANCE AND ALONG THAT FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE
TO WORK WITH...ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR MODEST
WIND SHEAR...WHICH MAY HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS SHOULD SUFFICIENT
UPDRAFT STRENGTH DEVELOPMENT.

ONLY LIMITING FACTORS INCLUDE RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER BLANKETING THE
REGION THIS MORNING AND THE TIMING OF UPPER SHORTWAVE
SUPPORT...WHICH HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO
MODEL. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE SPC SLIGHT RISK PROGNOSIS LOOKS
REASONABLE FOR NOW WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT COMING FROM WIND GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FADE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
FINALLY SLIDES ACROSS THE I 70 CORRIDOR. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
THUS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A
SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.

MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ARE SPARSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER
CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS
RUNS. WITH THE TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES
IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WILL DOMINATE UNTIL CONVECTION DEVELOPS WITH THE ADVANCE OF
THE COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTHWARD...ALTHOUGH
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL MAY LINGER FOR SOUTHERN PORTS AS BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS POOLED IN VICINITY OF...AND JUST NORTH OF
THE FRONT INTO THE MORNING.

AND DEGRADED CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE ON TUESDAY WITH
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031349
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
949 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATER TODAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ONLY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE MID MORNING UPDATE WERE ADJUSTMENTS TO
MORNING POPS BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND HIGH RES TRENDS.

PREVIOUS...
FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO FIRE IN ADVANCE AND ALONG THAT FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE
TO WORK WITH...ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR MODEST
WIND SHEAR...WHICH MAY HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS SHOULD SUFFICIENT
UPDRAFT STRENGTH DEVELOPMENT.

ONLY LIMITING FACTORS INCLUDE RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER BLANKETING THE
REGION THIS MORNING AND THE TIMING OF UPPER SHORTWAVE
SUPPORT...WHICH HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO
MODEL. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE SPC SLIGHT RISK PROGNOSIS LOOKS
REASONABLE FOR NOW WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT COMING FROM WIND GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FADE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
FINALLY SLIDES ACROSS THE I 70 CORRIDOR. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
THUS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A
SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.

MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ARE SPARSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER
CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS
RUNS. WITH THE TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES
IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WILL DOMINATE UNTIL CONVECTION DEVELOPS WITH THE ADVANCE OF
THE COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTHWARD...ALTHOUGH
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL MAY LINGER FOR SOUTHERN PORTS AS BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS POOLED IN VICINITY OF...AND JUST NORTH OF
THE FRONT INTO THE MORNING.

AND DEGRADED CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE ON TUESDAY WITH
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031349
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
949 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATER TODAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ONLY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE MID MORNING UPDATE WERE ADJUSTMENTS TO
MORNING POPS BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND HIGH RES TRENDS.

PREVIOUS...
FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO FIRE IN ADVANCE AND ALONG THAT FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE
TO WORK WITH...ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR MODEST
WIND SHEAR...WHICH MAY HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS SHOULD SUFFICIENT
UPDRAFT STRENGTH DEVELOPMENT.

ONLY LIMITING FACTORS INCLUDE RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER BLANKETING THE
REGION THIS MORNING AND THE TIMING OF UPPER SHORTWAVE
SUPPORT...WHICH HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO
MODEL. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE SPC SLIGHT RISK PROGNOSIS LOOKS
REASONABLE FOR NOW WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT COMING FROM WIND GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FADE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
FINALLY SLIDES ACROSS THE I 70 CORRIDOR. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
THUS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A
SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.

MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ARE SPARSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER
CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS
RUNS. WITH THE TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES
IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WILL DOMINATE UNTIL CONVECTION DEVELOPS WITH THE ADVANCE OF
THE COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTHWARD...ALTHOUGH
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL MAY LINGER FOR SOUTHERN PORTS AS BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS POOLED IN VICINITY OF...AND JUST NORTH OF
THE FRONT INTO THE MORNING.

AND DEGRADED CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE ON TUESDAY WITH
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031018
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
618 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TODAY. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOCUS TODAY WILL TURN TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO RE-FIRE LATER TODAY ALONG THE FRONT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH...ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
FOR MODEST WIND SHEAR...WHICH WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS. THE
AMOUNT OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER THAT CROSSES THE REGION FROM THE
EARLY MORNING MCS WILL BE CRUCIAL...AS THIS WOULD OBVIOUSLY LIMIT
SUNSHINE AND MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS
THE FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE REGION. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...
DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAST THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS ABLE TO PUSH SOUTH
OF MY FORECAST AREA. IT MAY SLOW UP JUST A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF
ANY GOOD PUSH IN THE UPPER LEVELS.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A
SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.

MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ARE SPARSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD TODAY...WITH MAINLY
MID AND HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS FROM OVERNIGHT GREAT LAKES MCS. PRECIP
SHIELD IS RAPIDLY FADING...BUT A BIT OF LIGHT RAIN REMAINS
POSSIBLE AT ZZV DURING THE MORNING. COLD FRONT STILL SLATED TO
ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. CONTINUING WITH
VCTS MENTION AT MOST TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AS TIMING THE BEST
CONVECTIVE CHANCES REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. REMOVED VCTS FROM FKL FOR
NOW...THINKING DESTABILIZATION WILL BE MINIMIZED HERE TODAY. BEST
CHANCES FOR HEAVIER STORMS...AND RESULTANT BRIEF IFR AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS...WILL RESIDE MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF PIT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...LOW-END VFR SHOULD BE
MAINTAINED IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER
OFF TONIGHT AS THE FRONT SLIDES THROUGH...WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING
OUT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. WINDS TODAY WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 15
AND 25 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...AND WILL LIGHTEN AND TURN MORE
WESTERLY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031018
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
618 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TODAY. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOCUS TODAY WILL TURN TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO RE-FIRE LATER TODAY ALONG THE FRONT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH...ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
FOR MODEST WIND SHEAR...WHICH WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS. THE
AMOUNT OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER THAT CROSSES THE REGION FROM THE
EARLY MORNING MCS WILL BE CRUCIAL...AS THIS WOULD OBVIOUSLY LIMIT
SUNSHINE AND MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS
THE FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE REGION. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...
DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAST THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS ABLE TO PUSH SOUTH
OF MY FORECAST AREA. IT MAY SLOW UP JUST A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF
ANY GOOD PUSH IN THE UPPER LEVELS.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A
SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.

MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ARE SPARSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD TODAY...WITH MAINLY
MID AND HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS FROM OVERNIGHT GREAT LAKES MCS. PRECIP
SHIELD IS RAPIDLY FADING...BUT A BIT OF LIGHT RAIN REMAINS
POSSIBLE AT ZZV DURING THE MORNING. COLD FRONT STILL SLATED TO
ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. CONTINUING WITH
VCTS MENTION AT MOST TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AS TIMING THE BEST
CONVECTIVE CHANCES REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. REMOVED VCTS FROM FKL FOR
NOW...THINKING DESTABILIZATION WILL BE MINIMIZED HERE TODAY. BEST
CHANCES FOR HEAVIER STORMS...AND RESULTANT BRIEF IFR AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS...WILL RESIDE MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF PIT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...LOW-END VFR SHOULD BE
MAINTAINED IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER
OFF TONIGHT AS THE FRONT SLIDES THROUGH...WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING
OUT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. WINDS TODAY WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 15
AND 25 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...AND WILL LIGHTEN AND TURN MORE
WESTERLY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030807
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
407 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TODAY. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOCUS TODAY WILL TURN TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO RE-FIRE LATER TODAY ALONG THE FRONT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH...ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
FOR MODEST WIND SHEAR...WHICH WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS. THE
AMOUNT OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER THAT CROSSES THE REGION FROM THE
EARLY MORNING MCS WILL BE CRUCIAL...AS THIS WOULD OBVIOUSLY LIMIT
SUNSHINE AND MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS
THE FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE REGION. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...
DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAST THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS ABLE TO PUSH SOUTH
OF MY FORECAST AREA. IT MAY SLOW UP JUST A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF
ANY GOOD PUSH IN THE UPPER LEVELS.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A
SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.

MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ARE SPARSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS AND SUNRISE.
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH AND ENTER FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND EXIT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW MAINLY LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF PIT BY MIDDAY...SOME
LEFTOVER FROM VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE LINE TO THE NORTHWEST. FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH TSRA
POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS. TIMING IS STILL A BIT TRICKY AND
CONTINUE TO HANDLE WITH VCTS FOR NOW. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER STORMS.
OUTSIDE OF STORMS...GUSTY SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS...SHIFTING TO WEST BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE
EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING BEHIND THE STORMS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030807
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
407 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TODAY. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOCUS TODAY WILL TURN TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO RE-FIRE LATER TODAY ALONG THE FRONT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH...ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
FOR MODEST WIND SHEAR...WHICH WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS. THE
AMOUNT OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER THAT CROSSES THE REGION FROM THE
EARLY MORNING MCS WILL BE CRUCIAL...AS THIS WOULD OBVIOUSLY LIMIT
SUNSHINE AND MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS
THE FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE REGION. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...
DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAST THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS ABLE TO PUSH SOUTH
OF MY FORECAST AREA. IT MAY SLOW UP JUST A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF
ANY GOOD PUSH IN THE UPPER LEVELS.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A
SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.

MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ARE SPARSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS AND SUNRISE.
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH AND ENTER FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND EXIT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW MAINLY LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF PIT BY MIDDAY...SOME
LEFTOVER FROM VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE LINE TO THE NORTHWEST. FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH TSRA
POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS. TIMING IS STILL A BIT TRICKY AND
CONTINUE TO HANDLE WITH VCTS FOR NOW. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER STORMS.
OUTSIDE OF STORMS...GUSTY SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS...SHIFTING TO WEST BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE
EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING BEHIND THE STORMS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030531
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
131 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL REQUIRE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AS THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE A DYING COMPLEX THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. LATEST SAT AND RADAR TRENDS AGREE NICELY
WITH OPERATIONAL AND HIRES MODEL DATA SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND AS
MCS ENCOUNTERS A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IT APPEARS THE PORTION
OF THE COMPLEX LIKELY TO HOLD TOGETHER WILL BE WELL TO THE WEST
IN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA THAT A FEW
SHOWERS COULD SNEAK INTO THE NORTH AS DAWN APPROACHES. CLOUD COVER
WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON WHATS LEFT OF THE MCS. WITH STRONGER WINDS
OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD.

ATTENTION LATER TODAY WILL TURN TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RE-FIRE LATER TODAY ALONG THE FRONT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH...ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT FOR MODEST WIND SHEAR WHICH WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS.
THE AMOUNT OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER THAT CROSSES THE REGION FROM
THE EARLY MORNING MCS WILL BE CRUCIAL...AS THIS WOULD OBVIOUSLY
LIMIT SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS
THE FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE REGION. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...
DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAST THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS ABLE TO PUSH SOUTH
OF MY FORECAST AREA. IT MAY SLOW UP JUST A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF
ANY GOOD PUSH IN THE UPPER LEVELS.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A
SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.

MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ARE SPARSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS AND SUNRISE.
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH AND ENTER FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND EXIT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW MAINLY LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF PIT BY MIDDAY...SOME
LEFTOVER FROM VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE LINE TO THE NORTHWEST. FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH TSRA
POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS. TIMING IS STILL A BIT TRICKY AND
CONTINUE TO HANDLE WITH VCTS FOR NOW. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER STORMS.
OUTSIDE OF STORMS...GUSTY SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS...SHIFTING TO WEST BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE
EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING BEHIND THE STORMS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030531
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
131 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL REQUIRE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AS THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE A DYING COMPLEX THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. LATEST SAT AND RADAR TRENDS AGREE NICELY
WITH OPERATIONAL AND HIRES MODEL DATA SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND AS
MCS ENCOUNTERS A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IT APPEARS THE PORTION
OF THE COMPLEX LIKELY TO HOLD TOGETHER WILL BE WELL TO THE WEST
IN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA THAT A FEW
SHOWERS COULD SNEAK INTO THE NORTH AS DAWN APPROACHES. CLOUD COVER
WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON WHATS LEFT OF THE MCS. WITH STRONGER WINDS
OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD.

ATTENTION LATER TODAY WILL TURN TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RE-FIRE LATER TODAY ALONG THE FRONT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH...ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT FOR MODEST WIND SHEAR WHICH WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS.
THE AMOUNT OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER THAT CROSSES THE REGION FROM
THE EARLY MORNING MCS WILL BE CRUCIAL...AS THIS WOULD OBVIOUSLY
LIMIT SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS
THE FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE REGION. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...
DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAST THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS ABLE TO PUSH SOUTH
OF MY FORECAST AREA. IT MAY SLOW UP JUST A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF
ANY GOOD PUSH IN THE UPPER LEVELS.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A
SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.

MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ARE SPARSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS AND SUNRISE.
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH AND ENTER FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND EXIT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW MAINLY LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF PIT BY MIDDAY...SOME
LEFTOVER FROM VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE LINE TO THE NORTHWEST. FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH TSRA
POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS. TIMING IS STILL A BIT TRICKY AND
CONTINUE TO HANDLE WITH VCTS FOR NOW. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER STORMS.
OUTSIDE OF STORMS...GUSTY SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS...SHIFTING TO WEST BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE
EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING BEHIND THE STORMS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030531
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
131 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL REQUIRE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AS THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE A DYING COMPLEX THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. LATEST SAT AND RADAR TRENDS AGREE NICELY
WITH OPERATIONAL AND HIRES MODEL DATA SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND AS
MCS ENCOUNTERS A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IT APPEARS THE PORTION
OF THE COMPLEX LIKELY TO HOLD TOGETHER WILL BE WELL TO THE WEST
IN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA THAT A FEW
SHOWERS COULD SNEAK INTO THE NORTH AS DAWN APPROACHES. CLOUD COVER
WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON WHATS LEFT OF THE MCS. WITH STRONGER WINDS
OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD.

ATTENTION LATER TODAY WILL TURN TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RE-FIRE LATER TODAY ALONG THE FRONT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH...ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT FOR MODEST WIND SHEAR WHICH WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS.
THE AMOUNT OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER THAT CROSSES THE REGION FROM
THE EARLY MORNING MCS WILL BE CRUCIAL...AS THIS WOULD OBVIOUSLY
LIMIT SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS
THE FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE REGION. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...
DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAST THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS ABLE TO PUSH SOUTH
OF MY FORECAST AREA. IT MAY SLOW UP JUST A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF
ANY GOOD PUSH IN THE UPPER LEVELS.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A
SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.

MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ARE SPARSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS AND SUNRISE.
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH AND ENTER FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND EXIT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW MAINLY LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF PIT BY MIDDAY...SOME
LEFTOVER FROM VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE LINE TO THE NORTHWEST. FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH TSRA
POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS. TIMING IS STILL A BIT TRICKY AND
CONTINUE TO HANDLE WITH VCTS FOR NOW. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER STORMS.
OUTSIDE OF STORMS...GUSTY SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS...SHIFTING TO WEST BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE
EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING BEHIND THE STORMS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030531
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
131 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL REQUIRE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AS THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE A DYING COMPLEX THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. LATEST SAT AND RADAR TRENDS AGREE NICELY
WITH OPERATIONAL AND HIRES MODEL DATA SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND AS
MCS ENCOUNTERS A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IT APPEARS THE PORTION
OF THE COMPLEX LIKELY TO HOLD TOGETHER WILL BE WELL TO THE WEST
IN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA THAT A FEW
SHOWERS COULD SNEAK INTO THE NORTH AS DAWN APPROACHES. CLOUD COVER
WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON WHATS LEFT OF THE MCS. WITH STRONGER WINDS
OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD.

ATTENTION LATER TODAY WILL TURN TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RE-FIRE LATER TODAY ALONG THE FRONT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH...ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT FOR MODEST WIND SHEAR WHICH WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS.
THE AMOUNT OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER THAT CROSSES THE REGION FROM
THE EARLY MORNING MCS WILL BE CRUCIAL...AS THIS WOULD OBVIOUSLY
LIMIT SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS
THE FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE REGION. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...
DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAST THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS ABLE TO PUSH SOUTH
OF MY FORECAST AREA. IT MAY SLOW UP JUST A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF
ANY GOOD PUSH IN THE UPPER LEVELS.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A
SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.

MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ARE SPARSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS AND SUNRISE.
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH AND ENTER FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND EXIT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW MAINLY LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF PIT BY MIDDAY...SOME
LEFTOVER FROM VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE LINE TO THE NORTHWEST. FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH TSRA
POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS. TIMING IS STILL A BIT TRICKY AND
CONTINUE TO HANDLE WITH VCTS FOR NOW. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER STORMS.
OUTSIDE OF STORMS...GUSTY SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS...SHIFTING TO WEST BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE
EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING BEHIND THE STORMS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030525 CCA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
125 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TODAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL REQUIRE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AS THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE A DYING COMPLEX THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. LATEST SAT AND RADAR TRENDS AGREE NICELY
WITH OPERATIONAL AND HIRES MODEL DATA SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND AS
MCS ENCOUNTERS A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IT APPEARS THE PORTION
OF THE COMPLEX LIKELY TO HOLD TOGETHER WILL BE WELL TO THE WEST
IN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA THAT A
FEW SHOWERS COULD SNEAK INTO THE NORTH AND WEST AS DAWN
APPROACHES. CLOUD COVER WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON WHATS LEFT OF THE
MCS. WITH STRONGER WINDS OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
MILD.

ATTENTION LATER TODAY WILL TURN TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RE-FIRE LATER TODAY ALONG THE FRONT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH...ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT FOR MODEST WIND SHEAR WHICH WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS.
THE AMOUNT OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER THAT CROSSES THE REGION FROM
THE EARLY MORNING MCS WILL BE CRUCIAL...AS THIS WOULD OBVIOUSLY
LIMIT SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS
THE FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE REGION. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...
DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAST THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS ABLE TO PUSH SOUTH
OF MY FORECAST AREA. IT MAY SLOW UP JUST A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF
ANY GOOD PUSH IN THE UPPER LEVELS.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A
SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.

MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ARE SPARSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SLIPPING TO THE EAST AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. TIMING THE FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY...GIVING RISE TO SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. ANY RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE BRIEF AND ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE
CRITERIA WITH STRONG WIND BEING THE MAIN THREAT. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING...WITH A WIND SHIFT EXPECTED TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT PASSES.
TAX

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030525 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
125 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL REQUIRE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AS THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE A DYING COMPLEX THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. LATEST SAT AND RADAR TRENDS AGREE NICELY
WITH OPERATIONAL AND HIRES MODEL DATA SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND AS
MCS ENCOUNTERS A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IT APPEARS THE PORTION
OF THE COMPLEX LIKELY TO HOLD TOGETHER WILL BE WELL TO THE WEST
IN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA THAT A
FEW SHOWERS COULD SNEAK INTO THE NORTH AND WEST AS DAWN
APPROACHES. CLOUD COVER WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON WHATS LEFT OF THE
MCS. WITH STRONGER WINDS OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
MILD.

ATTENTION LATER TODAY WILL TURN TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RE-FIRE LATER TODAY ALONG THE FRONT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH...ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT FOR MODEST WIND SHEAR WHICH WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS.
THE AMOUNT OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER THAT CROSSES THE REGION FROM
THE EARLY MORNING MCS WILL BE CRUCIAL...AS THIS WOULD OBVIOUSLY
LIMIT SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS
THE FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE REGION. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...
DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAST THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS ABLE TO PUSH SOUTH
OF MY FORECAST AREA. IT MAY SLOW UP JUST A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF
ANY GOOD PUSH IN THE UPPER LEVELS.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A
SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.

MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ARE SPARSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SLIPPING TO THE EAST AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. TIMING THE FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY...GIVING RISE TO SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. ANY RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE BRIEF AND ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE
CRITERIA WITH STRONG WIND BEING THE MAIN THREAT. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING...WITH A WIND SHIFT EXPECTED TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT PASSES.
TAX

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030525 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
125 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL REQUIRE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AS THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE A DYING COMPLEX THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. LATEST SAT AND RADAR TRENDS AGREE NICELY
WITH OPERATIONAL AND HIRES MODEL DATA SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND AS
MCS ENCOUNTERS A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IT APPEARS THE PORTION
OF THE COMPLEX LIKELY TO HOLD TOGETHER WILL BE WELL TO THE WEST
IN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA THAT A
FEW SHOWERS COULD SNEAK INTO THE NORTH AND WEST AS DAWN
APPROACHES. CLOUD COVER WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON WHATS LEFT OF THE
MCS. WITH STRONGER WINDS OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
MILD.

ATTENTION LATER TODAY WILL TURN TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RE-FIRE LATER TODAY ALONG THE FRONT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH...ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT FOR MODEST WIND SHEAR WHICH WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS.
THE AMOUNT OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER THAT CROSSES THE REGION FROM
THE EARLY MORNING MCS WILL BE CRUCIAL...AS THIS WOULD OBVIOUSLY
LIMIT SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS
THE FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE REGION. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...
DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAST THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS ABLE TO PUSH SOUTH
OF MY FORECAST AREA. IT MAY SLOW UP JUST A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF
ANY GOOD PUSH IN THE UPPER LEVELS.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A
SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.

MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ARE SPARSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SLIPPING TO THE EAST AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. TIMING THE FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY...GIVING RISE TO SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. ANY RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE BRIEF AND ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE
CRITERIA WITH STRONG WIND BEING THE MAIN THREAT. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING...WITH A WIND SHIFT EXPECTED TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT PASSES.
TAX

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030525 CCA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
125 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TODAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL REQUIRE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AS THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE A DYING COMPLEX THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. LATEST SAT AND RADAR TRENDS AGREE NICELY
WITH OPERATIONAL AND HIRES MODEL DATA SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND AS
MCS ENCOUNTERS A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IT APPEARS THE PORTION
OF THE COMPLEX LIKELY TO HOLD TOGETHER WILL BE WELL TO THE WEST
IN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA THAT A
FEW SHOWERS COULD SNEAK INTO THE NORTH AND WEST AS DAWN
APPROACHES. CLOUD COVER WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON WHATS LEFT OF THE
MCS. WITH STRONGER WINDS OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
MILD.

ATTENTION LATER TODAY WILL TURN TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RE-FIRE LATER TODAY ALONG THE FRONT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH...ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT FOR MODEST WIND SHEAR WHICH WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS.
THE AMOUNT OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER THAT CROSSES THE REGION FROM
THE EARLY MORNING MCS WILL BE CRUCIAL...AS THIS WOULD OBVIOUSLY
LIMIT SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS
THE FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE REGION. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...
DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAST THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS ABLE TO PUSH SOUTH
OF MY FORECAST AREA. IT MAY SLOW UP JUST A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF
ANY GOOD PUSH IN THE UPPER LEVELS.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A
SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.

MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ARE SPARSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SLIPPING TO THE EAST AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. TIMING THE FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY...GIVING RISE TO SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. ANY RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE BRIEF AND ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE
CRITERIA WITH STRONG WIND BEING THE MAIN THREAT. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING...WITH A WIND SHIFT EXPECTED TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT PASSES.
TAX

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030525 CCA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
125 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TODAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL REQUIRE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AS THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE A DYING COMPLEX THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. LATEST SAT AND RADAR TRENDS AGREE NICELY
WITH OPERATIONAL AND HIRES MODEL DATA SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND AS
MCS ENCOUNTERS A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IT APPEARS THE PORTION
OF THE COMPLEX LIKELY TO HOLD TOGETHER WILL BE WELL TO THE WEST
IN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA THAT A
FEW SHOWERS COULD SNEAK INTO THE NORTH AND WEST AS DAWN
APPROACHES. CLOUD COVER WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON WHATS LEFT OF THE
MCS. WITH STRONGER WINDS OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
MILD.

ATTENTION LATER TODAY WILL TURN TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RE-FIRE LATER TODAY ALONG THE FRONT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH...ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT FOR MODEST WIND SHEAR WHICH WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS.
THE AMOUNT OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER THAT CROSSES THE REGION FROM
THE EARLY MORNING MCS WILL BE CRUCIAL...AS THIS WOULD OBVIOUSLY
LIMIT SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS
THE FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE REGION. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...
DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAST THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS ABLE TO PUSH SOUTH
OF MY FORECAST AREA. IT MAY SLOW UP JUST A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF
ANY GOOD PUSH IN THE UPPER LEVELS.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A
SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.

MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ARE SPARSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SLIPPING TO THE EAST AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. TIMING THE FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY...GIVING RISE TO SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. ANY RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE BRIEF AND ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE
CRITERIA WITH STRONG WIND BEING THE MAIN THREAT. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING...WITH A WIND SHIFT EXPECTED TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT PASSES.
TAX

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030525 CCA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
125 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TODAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL REQUIRE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AS THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE A DYING COMPLEX THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. LATEST SAT AND RADAR TRENDS AGREE NICELY
WITH OPERATIONAL AND HIRES MODEL DATA SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND AS
MCS ENCOUNTERS A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IT APPEARS THE PORTION
OF THE COMPLEX LIKELY TO HOLD TOGETHER WILL BE WELL TO THE WEST
IN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA THAT A
FEW SHOWERS COULD SNEAK INTO THE NORTH AND WEST AS DAWN
APPROACHES. CLOUD COVER WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON WHATS LEFT OF THE
MCS. WITH STRONGER WINDS OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
MILD.

ATTENTION LATER TODAY WILL TURN TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RE-FIRE LATER TODAY ALONG THE FRONT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH...ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT FOR MODEST WIND SHEAR WHICH WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS.
THE AMOUNT OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER THAT CROSSES THE REGION FROM
THE EARLY MORNING MCS WILL BE CRUCIAL...AS THIS WOULD OBVIOUSLY
LIMIT SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS
THE FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE REGION. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...
DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAST THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS ABLE TO PUSH SOUTH
OF MY FORECAST AREA. IT MAY SLOW UP JUST A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF
ANY GOOD PUSH IN THE UPPER LEVELS.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A
SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.

MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ARE SPARSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SLIPPING TO THE EAST AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. TIMING THE FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY...GIVING RISE TO SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. ANY RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE BRIEF AND ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE
CRITERIA WITH STRONG WIND BEING THE MAIN THREAT. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING...WITH A WIND SHIFT EXPECTED TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT PASSES.
TAX

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030116
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
916 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
CUMULUS HAS ENTIRELY FADED AS ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE RATHER
WELL-MIXED COLUMN QUICKLY ERODED ALL CLOUD COVER. WIND GUSTS
SHOULD DIMINISH A BIT AFTER SUNSET...HOWEVER AMPLE MOMENTUM AND A
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ARE LIKELY TO KEEP SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS UP OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER WARM NIGHT AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN MIXED...PARTICULARLY IN
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...URBAN HEAT
ISLANDS WILL REMAIN STRONG...AND LOWS LOOK POISED TO BE LARGELY IN
THE 60S TO NEAR 70 IN THE URBAN AREA. FRIES

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MONDAY FOLLOWS...ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN
TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER WISCONSIN...WHICH IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER GOING ON THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN. WHILE THE LOW MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT...THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ALONG THE FRONT. WHILE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD PERSIST...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE THE SHOWERS WANING AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES NORTHERN OHIO NEAR SUNRISE.

IF THIS PLAYS OUT...TIMING COULD LIMIT OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...WITH SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT
AS IT PASSES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE
MORNING. EVENTUALLY SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR THAT
COULD HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS. THE SPC DAY 2 AFTERNOON UPDATE
REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER TODAY...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA
UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WHICH IS ALREADY
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
CONSIDERING WINDS WILL NOT GO CALM AS WELL AS HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
IN BEFORE THE FRONT. MONDAY HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN TODAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY EVENING AS
THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION...WITH ONLY SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
KEEPING A CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...MODELS NOW SHOW THE COLD FRONT MOVING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
OF THE REGION TO KEEP SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH A DRY FORECAST ON
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...TO THE NORTH...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MAKE
SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST...PASSING FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. MODELS
HAVE ALSO COME INTO LINE KEEPING MOST PRECIPITATION WITH TUESDAYS
SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF SHOWERS
COULD CLIP NORTHERN COUNTIES. AFTER A DRY TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SLIPPING TO THE EAST AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. TIMING THE FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY...GIVING RISE TO SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. ANY RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE BREIF AND ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE
CRITERIA WITH STRONG WIND BEING THE MAIN THREAT. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING...WITH A WIND SHIFT EXPECTED TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT PASSES.
TAX

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030116
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
916 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
CUMULUS HAS ENTIRELY FADED AS ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE RATHER
WELL-MIXED COLUMN QUICKLY ERODED ALL CLOUD COVER. WIND GUSTS
SHOULD DIMINISH A BIT AFTER SUNSET...HOWEVER AMPLE MOMENTUM AND A
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ARE LIKELY TO KEEP SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS UP OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER WARM NIGHT AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN MIXED...PARTICULARLY IN
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...URBAN HEAT
ISLANDS WILL REMAIN STRONG...AND LOWS LOOK POISED TO BE LARGELY IN
THE 60S TO NEAR 70 IN THE URBAN AREA. FRIES

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MONDAY FOLLOWS...ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN
TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER WISCONSIN...WHICH IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER GOING ON THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN. WHILE THE LOW MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT...THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ALONG THE FRONT. WHILE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD PERSIST...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE THE SHOWERS WANING AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES NORTHERN OHIO NEAR SUNRISE.

IF THIS PLAYS OUT...TIMING COULD LIMIT OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...WITH SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT
AS IT PASSES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE
MORNING. EVENTUALLY SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR THAT
COULD HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS. THE SPC DAY 2 AFTERNOON UPDATE
REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER TODAY...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA
UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WHICH IS ALREADY
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
CONSIDERING WINDS WILL NOT GO CALM AS WELL AS HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
IN BEFORE THE FRONT. MONDAY HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN TODAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY EVENING AS
THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION...WITH ONLY SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
KEEPING A CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...MODELS NOW SHOW THE COLD FRONT MOVING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
OF THE REGION TO KEEP SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH A DRY FORECAST ON
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...TO THE NORTH...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MAKE
SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST...PASSING FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. MODELS
HAVE ALSO COME INTO LINE KEEPING MOST PRECIPITATION WITH TUESDAYS
SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF SHOWERS
COULD CLIP NORTHERN COUNTIES. AFTER A DRY TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SLIPPING TO THE EAST AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. TIMING THE FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY...GIVING RISE TO SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. ANY RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE BREIF AND ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE
CRITERIA WITH STRONG WIND BEING THE MAIN THREAT. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING...WITH A WIND SHIFT EXPECTED TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT PASSES.
TAX

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030116
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
916 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
CUMULUS HAS ENTIRELY FADED AS ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE RATHER
WELL-MIXED COLUMN QUICKLY ERODED ALL CLOUD COVER. WIND GUSTS
SHOULD DIMINISH A BIT AFTER SUNSET...HOWEVER AMPLE MOMENTUM AND A
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ARE LIKELY TO KEEP SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS UP OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER WARM NIGHT AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN MIXED...PARTICULARLY IN
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...URBAN HEAT
ISLANDS WILL REMAIN STRONG...AND LOWS LOOK POISED TO BE LARGELY IN
THE 60S TO NEAR 70 IN THE URBAN AREA. FRIES

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MONDAY FOLLOWS...ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN
TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER WISCONSIN...WHICH IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER GOING ON THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN. WHILE THE LOW MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT...THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ALONG THE FRONT. WHILE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD PERSIST...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE THE SHOWERS WANING AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES NORTHERN OHIO NEAR SUNRISE.

IF THIS PLAYS OUT...TIMING COULD LIMIT OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...WITH SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT
AS IT PASSES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE
MORNING. EVENTUALLY SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR THAT
COULD HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS. THE SPC DAY 2 AFTERNOON UPDATE
REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER TODAY...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA
UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WHICH IS ALREADY
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
CONSIDERING WINDS WILL NOT GO CALM AS WELL AS HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
IN BEFORE THE FRONT. MONDAY HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN TODAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY EVENING AS
THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION...WITH ONLY SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
KEEPING A CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...MODELS NOW SHOW THE COLD FRONT MOVING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
OF THE REGION TO KEEP SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH A DRY FORECAST ON
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...TO THE NORTH...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MAKE
SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST...PASSING FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. MODELS
HAVE ALSO COME INTO LINE KEEPING MOST PRECIPITATION WITH TUESDAYS
SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF SHOWERS
COULD CLIP NORTHERN COUNTIES. AFTER A DRY TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SLIPPING TO THE EAST AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. TIMING THE FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY...GIVING RISE TO SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. ANY RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE BREIF AND ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE
CRITERIA WITH STRONG WIND BEING THE MAIN THREAT. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING...WITH A WIND SHIFT EXPECTED TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT PASSES.
TAX

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 022316
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
716 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
CUMULUS IS ALREADY FADING QUICKLY AS ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE
RATHER WELL-MIXED COLUMN QUICKLY ERODES EVEN WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. WIND GUSTS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET...HOWEVER AMPLE MOMENTUM AND A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ARE LIKELY TO KEEP SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS UP OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER WARM NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER SEEMS
LIKELY TO REMAIN MIXED...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...URBAN HEAT ISLANDS WILL REMAIN
STRONG...AND LOWS LOOK POISED TO BE LARGELY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70
IN THE URBAN AREA. FRIES

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MONDAY FOLLOWS...ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN
TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER WISCONSIN...WHICH IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER GOING ON THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN. WHILE THE LOW MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT...THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ALONG THE FRONT. WHILE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD PERSIST...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE THE SHOWERS WANING AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES NORTHERN OHIO NEAR SUNRISE.

IF THIS PLAYS OUT...TIMING COULD LIMIT OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...WITH SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT
AS IT PASSES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE
MORNING. EVENTUALLY SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR THAT
COULD HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS. THE SPC DAY 2 AFTERNOON UPDATE
REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER TODAY...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA
UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WHICH IS ALREADY
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
CONSIDERING WINDS WILL NOT GO CALM AS WELL AS HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
IN BEFORE THE FRONT. MONDAY HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN TODAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY EVENING AS
THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION...WITH ONLY SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
KEEPING A CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...MODELS NOW SHOW THE COLD FRONT MOVING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
OF THE REGION TO KEEP SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH A DRY FORECAST ON
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...TO THE NORTH...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MAKE
SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST...PASSING FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. MODELS
HAVE ALSO COME INTO LINE KEEPING MOST PRECIPITATION WITH TUESDAYS
SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF SHOWERS
COULD CLIP NORTHERN COUNTIES. AFTER A DRY TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SLIPPING TO THE EAST AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. TIMING THE FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY...GIVING RISE TO SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. ANY RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE BREIF AND ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE
CRITERIA WITH STRONG WIND BEING THE MAIN THREAT. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING...WITH A WIND SHIFT EXPECTED TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT PASSES.
TAX

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 022316
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
716 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
CUMULUS IS ALREADY FADING QUICKLY AS ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE
RATHER WELL-MIXED COLUMN QUICKLY ERODES EVEN WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. WIND GUSTS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET...HOWEVER AMPLE MOMENTUM AND A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ARE LIKELY TO KEEP SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS UP OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER WARM NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER SEEMS
LIKELY TO REMAIN MIXED...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...URBAN HEAT ISLANDS WILL REMAIN
STRONG...AND LOWS LOOK POISED TO BE LARGELY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70
IN THE URBAN AREA. FRIES

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MONDAY FOLLOWS...ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN
TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER WISCONSIN...WHICH IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER GOING ON THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN. WHILE THE LOW MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT...THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ALONG THE FRONT. WHILE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD PERSIST...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE THE SHOWERS WANING AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES NORTHERN OHIO NEAR SUNRISE.

IF THIS PLAYS OUT...TIMING COULD LIMIT OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...WITH SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT
AS IT PASSES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE
MORNING. EVENTUALLY SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR THAT
COULD HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS. THE SPC DAY 2 AFTERNOON UPDATE
REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER TODAY...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA
UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WHICH IS ALREADY
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
CONSIDERING WINDS WILL NOT GO CALM AS WELL AS HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
IN BEFORE THE FRONT. MONDAY HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN TODAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY EVENING AS
THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION...WITH ONLY SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
KEEPING A CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...MODELS NOW SHOW THE COLD FRONT MOVING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
OF THE REGION TO KEEP SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH A DRY FORECAST ON
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...TO THE NORTH...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MAKE
SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST...PASSING FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. MODELS
HAVE ALSO COME INTO LINE KEEPING MOST PRECIPITATION WITH TUESDAYS
SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF SHOWERS
COULD CLIP NORTHERN COUNTIES. AFTER A DRY TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SLIPPING TO THE EAST AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. TIMING THE FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY...GIVING RISE TO SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. ANY RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE BREIF AND ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE
CRITERIA WITH STRONG WIND BEING THE MAIN THREAT. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING...WITH A WIND SHIFT EXPECTED TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT PASSES.
TAX

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 022316
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
716 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
CUMULUS IS ALREADY FADING QUICKLY AS ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE
RATHER WELL-MIXED COLUMN QUICKLY ERODES EVEN WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. WIND GUSTS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET...HOWEVER AMPLE MOMENTUM AND A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ARE LIKELY TO KEEP SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS UP OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER WARM NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER SEEMS
LIKELY TO REMAIN MIXED...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...URBAN HEAT ISLANDS WILL REMAIN
STRONG...AND LOWS LOOK POISED TO BE LARGELY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70
IN THE URBAN AREA. FRIES

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MONDAY FOLLOWS...ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN
TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER WISCONSIN...WHICH IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER GOING ON THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN. WHILE THE LOW MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT...THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ALONG THE FRONT. WHILE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD PERSIST...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE THE SHOWERS WANING AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES NORTHERN OHIO NEAR SUNRISE.

IF THIS PLAYS OUT...TIMING COULD LIMIT OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...WITH SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT
AS IT PASSES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE
MORNING. EVENTUALLY SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR THAT
COULD HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS. THE SPC DAY 2 AFTERNOON UPDATE
REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER TODAY...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA
UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WHICH IS ALREADY
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
CONSIDERING WINDS WILL NOT GO CALM AS WELL AS HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
IN BEFORE THE FRONT. MONDAY HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN TODAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY EVENING AS
THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION...WITH ONLY SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
KEEPING A CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...MODELS NOW SHOW THE COLD FRONT MOVING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
OF THE REGION TO KEEP SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH A DRY FORECAST ON
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...TO THE NORTH...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MAKE
SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST...PASSING FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. MODELS
HAVE ALSO COME INTO LINE KEEPING MOST PRECIPITATION WITH TUESDAYS
SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF SHOWERS
COULD CLIP NORTHERN COUNTIES. AFTER A DRY TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SLIPPING TO THE EAST AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. TIMING THE FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY...GIVING RISE TO SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. ANY RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE BREIF AND ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE
CRITERIA WITH STRONG WIND BEING THE MAIN THREAT. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING...WITH A WIND SHIFT EXPECTED TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT PASSES.
TAX

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 022316
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
716 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
CUMULUS IS ALREADY FADING QUICKLY AS ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE
RATHER WELL-MIXED COLUMN QUICKLY ERODES EVEN WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. WIND GUSTS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET...HOWEVER AMPLE MOMENTUM AND A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ARE LIKELY TO KEEP SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS UP OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER WARM NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER SEEMS
LIKELY TO REMAIN MIXED...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...URBAN HEAT ISLANDS WILL REMAIN
STRONG...AND LOWS LOOK POISED TO BE LARGELY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70
IN THE URBAN AREA. FRIES

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MONDAY FOLLOWS...ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN
TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER WISCONSIN...WHICH IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER GOING ON THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN. WHILE THE LOW MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT...THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ALONG THE FRONT. WHILE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD PERSIST...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE THE SHOWERS WANING AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES NORTHERN OHIO NEAR SUNRISE.

IF THIS PLAYS OUT...TIMING COULD LIMIT OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...WITH SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT
AS IT PASSES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE
MORNING. EVENTUALLY SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR THAT
COULD HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS. THE SPC DAY 2 AFTERNOON UPDATE
REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER TODAY...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA
UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WHICH IS ALREADY
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
CONSIDERING WINDS WILL NOT GO CALM AS WELL AS HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
IN BEFORE THE FRONT. MONDAY HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN TODAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY EVENING AS
THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION...WITH ONLY SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
KEEPING A CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...MODELS NOW SHOW THE COLD FRONT MOVING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
OF THE REGION TO KEEP SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH A DRY FORECAST ON
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...TO THE NORTH...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MAKE
SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST...PASSING FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. MODELS
HAVE ALSO COME INTO LINE KEEPING MOST PRECIPITATION WITH TUESDAYS
SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF SHOWERS
COULD CLIP NORTHERN COUNTIES. AFTER A DRY TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SLIPPING TO THE EAST AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. TIMING THE FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY...GIVING RISE TO SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. ANY RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE BREIF AND ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE
CRITERIA WITH STRONG WIND BEING THE MAIN THREAT. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING...WITH A WIND SHIFT EXPECTED TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT PASSES.
TAX

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 022210
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
610 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
CUMULUS IS ALREADY FADING QUICKLY AS ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE
RATHER WELL-MIXED COLUMN QUICKLY ERODES EVEN WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. WIND GUSTS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET...HOWEVER AMPLE MOMENTUM AND A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ARE LIKELY TO KEEP SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS UP OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER WARM NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER SEEMS
LIKELY TO REMAIN MIXED...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...URBAN HEAT ISLANDS WILL REMAIN
STRONG...AND LOWS LOOK POISED TO BE LARGELY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70
IN THE URBAN AREA. FRIES

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MONDAY FOLLOWS...ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN
TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER WISCONSIN...WHICH IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER GOING ON THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN. WHILE THE LOW MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT...THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ALONG THE FRONT. WHILE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD PERSIST...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE THE SHOWERS WANING AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES NORTHERN OHIO NEAR SUNRISE.

IF THIS PLAYS OUT...TIMING COULD LIMIT OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...WITH SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT
AS IT PASSES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE
MORNING. EVENTUALLY SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR THAT
COULD HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS. THE SPC DAY 2 AFTERNOON UPDATE
REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER TODAY...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA
UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WHICH IS ALREADY
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
CONSIDERING WINDS WILL NOT GO CALM AS WELL AS HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
IN BEFORE THE FRONT. MONDAY HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN TODAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY EVENING AS
THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION...WITH ONLY SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
KEEPING A CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...MODELS NOW SHOW THE COLD FRONT MOVING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
OF THE REGION TO KEEP SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH A DRY FORECAST ON
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...TO THE NORTH...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MAKE
SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST...PASSING FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. MODELS
HAVE ALSO COME INTO LINE KEEPING MOST PRECIPITATION WITH TUESDAYS
SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF SHOWERS
COULD CLIP NORTHERN COUNTIES. AFTER A DRY TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERAL VFR WILL CONTINUE AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST
TODAY. RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF A MONDAY COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 022210
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
610 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
CUMULUS IS ALREADY FADING QUICKLY AS ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE
RATHER WELL-MIXED COLUMN QUICKLY ERODES EVEN WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. WIND GUSTS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET...HOWEVER AMPLE MOMENTUM AND A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ARE LIKELY TO KEEP SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS UP OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER WARM NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER SEEMS
LIKELY TO REMAIN MIXED...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...URBAN HEAT ISLANDS WILL REMAIN
STRONG...AND LOWS LOOK POISED TO BE LARGELY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70
IN THE URBAN AREA. FRIES

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MONDAY FOLLOWS...ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN
TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER WISCONSIN...WHICH IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER GOING ON THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN. WHILE THE LOW MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT...THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ALONG THE FRONT. WHILE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD PERSIST...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE THE SHOWERS WANING AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES NORTHERN OHIO NEAR SUNRISE.

IF THIS PLAYS OUT...TIMING COULD LIMIT OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...WITH SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT
AS IT PASSES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE
MORNING. EVENTUALLY SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR THAT
COULD HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS. THE SPC DAY 2 AFTERNOON UPDATE
REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER TODAY...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA
UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WHICH IS ALREADY
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
CONSIDERING WINDS WILL NOT GO CALM AS WELL AS HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
IN BEFORE THE FRONT. MONDAY HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN TODAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY EVENING AS
THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION...WITH ONLY SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
KEEPING A CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...MODELS NOW SHOW THE COLD FRONT MOVING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
OF THE REGION TO KEEP SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH A DRY FORECAST ON
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...TO THE NORTH...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MAKE
SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST...PASSING FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. MODELS
HAVE ALSO COME INTO LINE KEEPING MOST PRECIPITATION WITH TUESDAYS
SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF SHOWERS
COULD CLIP NORTHERN COUNTIES. AFTER A DRY TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERAL VFR WILL CONTINUE AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST
TODAY. RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF A MONDAY COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 021920
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
320 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT YET AGAIN IN SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS
DISSIPATING AROUND SUNSET. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER WISCONSIN...WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER GOING ON THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WISCONSIN AND
MICHIGAN. WHILE THE LOW MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT...THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING ALONG THE FRONT. WHILE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
PERSIST...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE THE SHOWERS WANING AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES NORTHERN OHIO NEAR SUNRISE.

IF THIS PLAYS OUT...TIMING COULD LIMIT OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...WITH SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT
AS IT PASSES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE
MORNING. EVENTUALLY SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR THAT
COULD HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS. THE SPC DAY 2 AFTERNOON UPDATE
REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER TODAY...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA
UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WHICH IS ALREADY
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
CONSIDERING WINDS WILL NOT GO CALM AS WELL AS HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
IN BEFORE THE FRONT. MONDAY HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN TODAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY EVENING AS
THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION...WITH ONLY SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
KEEPING A CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...MODELS NOW SHOW THE COLD FRONT MOVING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
OF THE REGION TO KEEP SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH A DRY FORECAST ON
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...TO THE NORTH...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MAKE
SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST...PASSING FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. MODELS
HAVE ALSO COME INTO LINE KEEPING MOST PRECIPITATION WITH TUESDAYS
SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF SHOWERS
COULD CLIP NORTHERN COUNTIES. AFTER A DRY TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERAL VFR WILL CONTINUE AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST
TODAY. RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF A MONDAY COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 021920
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
320 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT YET AGAIN IN SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS
DISSIPATING AROUND SUNSET. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER WISCONSIN...WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER GOING ON THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WISCONSIN AND
MICHIGAN. WHILE THE LOW MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT...THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING ALONG THE FRONT. WHILE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
PERSIST...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE THE SHOWERS WANING AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES NORTHERN OHIO NEAR SUNRISE.

IF THIS PLAYS OUT...TIMING COULD LIMIT OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...WITH SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT
AS IT PASSES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE
MORNING. EVENTUALLY SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR THAT
COULD HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS. THE SPC DAY 2 AFTERNOON UPDATE
REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER TODAY...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA
UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WHICH IS ALREADY
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
CONSIDERING WINDS WILL NOT GO CALM AS WELL AS HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
IN BEFORE THE FRONT. MONDAY HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN TODAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY EVENING AS
THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION...WITH ONLY SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
KEEPING A CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...MODELS NOW SHOW THE COLD FRONT MOVING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
OF THE REGION TO KEEP SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH A DRY FORECAST ON
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...TO THE NORTH...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MAKE
SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST...PASSING FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. MODELS
HAVE ALSO COME INTO LINE KEEPING MOST PRECIPITATION WITH TUESDAYS
SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF SHOWERS
COULD CLIP NORTHERN COUNTIES. AFTER A DRY TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERAL VFR WILL CONTINUE AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST
TODAY. RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF A MONDAY COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY
UPPER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 021615
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1215 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL PERSIST TODAY...BUT SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH A MONDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH 1215PM UPDATE...CONTINUED TO UPDATE HOURLY SKY GRIDS FOR
EVOLUTION OF CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. OTHER UPDATE WAS FOR
PRECIPITATION GRIDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE ALREADY MADE SOME CHANGES
TO SLOW DOWN PRECIPITATION ARRIVAL...ALTHOUGH THAT FORECAST WILL
BE FURTHER TWEAKED THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PASSING MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THAT FRONTAL APPROACH WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH
ONLY SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF PITTSBURGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS REGION DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR TIMING. NEWEST SPC
OUTLOOK PUTS MUCH OF REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE...BUT THIS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY CAN ACTUALLY
BE REALIZED. BULK SHEAR NEAR 40 KTS IS FORECAST BY MODELS...SO
WILL MENTION IN HWO. GRADUALLY COOLER WITH DRYING BEHIND
FRONT TUESDAY. TIMING ISSUES WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE
MOVING EAST ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY SOUTH OF REGION. USED A MODEL
COMPROMISE TO SLOWLY INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER POPS SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL VFR WILL CONTINUE AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST
TODAY. RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF A MONDAY COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY UPPER
DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 021615
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1215 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL PERSIST TODAY...BUT SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH A MONDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH 1215PM UPDATE...CONTINUED TO UPDATE HOURLY SKY GRIDS FOR
EVOLUTION OF CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. OTHER UPDATE WAS FOR
PRECIPITATION GRIDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE ALREADY MADE SOME CHANGES
TO SLOW DOWN PRECIPITATION ARRIVAL...ALTHOUGH THAT FORECAST WILL
BE FURTHER TWEAKED THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PASSING MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THAT FRONTAL APPROACH WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH
ONLY SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF PITTSBURGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS REGION DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR TIMING. NEWEST SPC
OUTLOOK PUTS MUCH OF REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE...BUT THIS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY CAN ACTUALLY
BE REALIZED. BULK SHEAR NEAR 40 KTS IS FORECAST BY MODELS...SO
WILL MENTION IN HWO. GRADUALLY COOLER WITH DRYING BEHIND
FRONT TUESDAY. TIMING ISSUES WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE
MOVING EAST ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY SOUTH OF REGION. USED A MODEL
COMPROMISE TO SLOWLY INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER POPS SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL VFR WILL CONTINUE AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST
TODAY. RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF A MONDAY COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY UPPER
DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 021424
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1024 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL PERSIST TODAY...BUT SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH A MONDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH 1015AM UPDATE...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO KEEP MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS THAT MOVED EAST FROM
OHIO HAVE NOT DISSIPATED...AND ARE ACTUALLY BRINGING OVERCAST
SKIES TO SOME LOCATIONS FROM PITTSBURGH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PASSING MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THAT FRONTAL APPROACH WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH
ONLY SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF PITTSBURGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS REGION DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR TIMING. NEWEST SPC
OUTLOOK PUTS MUCH OF REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE...BUT THIS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY CAN ACTUALLY
BE REALIZED. BULK SHEAR NEAR 40 KTS IS FORECAST BY MODELS...SO
WILL MENTION IN HWO. GRADUALLY COOLER WITH DRYING BEHIND
FRONT TUESDAY. TIMING ISSUES WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE
MOVING EAST ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY SOUTH OF REGION. USED A MODEL
COMPROMISE TO SLOWLY INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER POPS SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL VFR WILL CONTINUE AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST
TODAY...BUT RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
RESTRICTION CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A LATE MONDAY
COLD FRONT. VFR WILL THEN RETURN UNTIL THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 021127
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
727 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL PERSIST TODAY...BUT SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH A MONDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR ALTERATIONS WERE NEEDED FOR THE POST DAWN UPDATE.

ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO CONTINUE TO TREND SOUTHEAST
WITH PROGRESS OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE. HAVE ADJUSTED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS TO LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PASSING MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THAT FRONTAL APPROACH WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH
ONLY SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF PITTSBURGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS REGION DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR TIMING. NEWEST SPC
OUTLOOK PUTS MUCH OF REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE...BUT THIS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY CAN ACTUALLY
BE REALIZED. BULK SHEAR NEAR 40 KTS IS FORECAST BY MODELS...SO
WILL MENTION IN HWO. GRADUALLY COOLER WITH DRYING BEHIND
FRONT TUESDAY. TIMING ISSUES WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE
MOVING EAST ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY SOUTH OF REGION. USED A MODEL
COMPROMISE TO SLOWLY INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER POPS SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL VFR WILL CONTINUE AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST
TODAY...BUT RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
RESTRICTION CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A LATE MONDAY
COLD FRONT. VFR WILL THEN RETURN UNTIL THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 021127
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
727 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL PERSIST TODAY...BUT SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH A MONDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR ALTERATIONS WERE NEEDED FOR THE POST DAWN UPDATE.

ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO CONTINUE TO TREND SOUTHEAST
WITH PROGRESS OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE. HAVE ADJUSTED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS TO LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PASSING MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THAT FRONTAL APPROACH WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH
ONLY SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF PITTSBURGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS REGION DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR TIMING. NEWEST SPC
OUTLOOK PUTS MUCH OF REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE...BUT THIS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY CAN ACTUALLY
BE REALIZED. BULK SHEAR NEAR 40 KTS IS FORECAST BY MODELS...SO
WILL MENTION IN HWO. GRADUALLY COOLER WITH DRYING BEHIND
FRONT TUESDAY. TIMING ISSUES WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE
MOVING EAST ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY SOUTH OF REGION. USED A MODEL
COMPROMISE TO SLOWLY INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER POPS SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL VFR WILL CONTINUE AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST
TODAY...BUT RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
RESTRICTION CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A LATE MONDAY
COLD FRONT. VFR WILL THEN RETURN UNTIL THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020920
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
520 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS MONDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO CONTINUE TO TREND SOUTHEAST.
HAVE ADJUSTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO LATEST RADAR TRENDS. NO OTHER
CHANGES AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ONLY A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TODAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
SMALL AND WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OHIO THIS
MORNING PRODUCING A COUPLE SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL OHIO...AND
HAVE ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BEFORE
SUNRISE THIS MORNING.

SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SUNDAY WILL
GIVE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S. COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS...INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE...AND A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS BEFORE DAYBREAK MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF PITTSBURGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS REGION DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR TIMING. NEWEST SPC
OUTLOOK PUTS MUCH OF REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE...BUT THIS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY CAN ACTUALLY
BE REALIZED. BULK SHEAR NEAR 40 KTS IS FORECAST BY MODELS...SO
WILL MENTION IN HWO. GRADUALLY COOLER WITH DRYING BEHIND
FRONT TUESDAY. TIMING ISSUES WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE
MOVING EAST ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY SOUTH OF REGION. USED A MODEL
COMPROMISE TO SLOWLY INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER POPS SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL VFR WILL CONTINUE AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST. WIND
GUSTS TO 15KTS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF
A MONDAY COLD FRONT. VFR WILL THEN RETURN UNTIL THE NEXT UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020920
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
520 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS MONDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO CONTINUE TO TREND SOUTHEAST.
HAVE ADJUSTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO LATEST RADAR TRENDS. NO OTHER
CHANGES AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ONLY A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TODAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
SMALL AND WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OHIO THIS
MORNING PRODUCING A COUPLE SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL OHIO...AND
HAVE ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BEFORE
SUNRISE THIS MORNING.

SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SUNDAY WILL
GIVE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S. COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS...INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE...AND A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS BEFORE DAYBREAK MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF PITTSBURGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS REGION DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR TIMING. NEWEST SPC
OUTLOOK PUTS MUCH OF REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE...BUT THIS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY CAN ACTUALLY
BE REALIZED. BULK SHEAR NEAR 40 KTS IS FORECAST BY MODELS...SO
WILL MENTION IN HWO. GRADUALLY COOLER WITH DRYING BEHIND
FRONT TUESDAY. TIMING ISSUES WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE
MOVING EAST ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY SOUTH OF REGION. USED A MODEL
COMPROMISE TO SLOWLY INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER POPS SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL VFR WILL CONTINUE AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST. WIND
GUSTS TO 15KTS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF
A MONDAY COLD FRONT. VFR WILL THEN RETURN UNTIL THE NEXT UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020731
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
331 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SHOWERS MONDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ONLY A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TODAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
SMALL AND WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OHIO THIS
MORNING PRODUCING A COUPLE SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL OHIO...AND
HAVE ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BEFORE
SUNRISE THIS MORNING.

SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SUNDAY WILL
GIVE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S. COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS...INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE...AND A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS BEFORE DAYBREAK MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF PITTSBURGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS REGION DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR TIMING. NEWEST SPC
OUTLOOK PUTS MUCH OF REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE...BUT THIS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY CAN ACTUALLY
BE REALIZED. BULK SHEAR NEAR 40 KTS IS FORECAST BY MODELS...SO
WILL MENTION IN HWO. GRADUALLY COOLER WITH DRYING BEHIND
FRONT TUESDAY. TIMING ISSUES WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE
MOVING EAST ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY SOUTH OF REGION. USED A MODEL
COMPROMISE TO SLOWLY INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER POPS SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL VFR WILL CONTINUE AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST. WIND
GUSTS TO 15KTS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF
A MONDAY COLD FRONT. VFR WILL THEN RETURN UNTIL THE NEXT UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020731
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
331 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SHOWERS MONDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ONLY A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TODAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
SMALL AND WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OHIO THIS
MORNING PRODUCING A COUPLE SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL OHIO...AND
HAVE ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BEFORE
SUNRISE THIS MORNING.

SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SUNDAY WILL
GIVE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S. COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS...INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE...AND A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS BEFORE DAYBREAK MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF PITTSBURGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS REGION DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR TIMING. NEWEST SPC
OUTLOOK PUTS MUCH OF REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE...BUT THIS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY CAN ACTUALLY
BE REALIZED. BULK SHEAR NEAR 40 KTS IS FORECAST BY MODELS...SO
WILL MENTION IN HWO. GRADUALLY COOLER WITH DRYING BEHIND
FRONT TUESDAY. TIMING ISSUES WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE
MOVING EAST ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY SOUTH OF REGION. USED A MODEL
COMPROMISE TO SLOWLY INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER POPS SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL VFR WILL CONTINUE AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST. WIND
GUSTS TO 15KTS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF
A MONDAY COLD FRONT. VFR WILL THEN RETURN UNTIL THE NEXT UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020444
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1244 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL FINISH THE
WEEKEND...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT EAST
OVERNIGHT...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SUNDAY WILL GIVE
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD
FRONT SHOULD MAKE ITS PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME MONDAY
MORNING. DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE ENOUGH TO BUMP UP POPS TO LIKELY
OVER A WIDESPREAD AREA WITH MOISTURE AS A POSSIBLE LIMITING
FACTOR...ALTHOUGH DYNAMICS ALONG THE FRONT ARE FAVORABLE. FOR NOW
HAVE SIMPLY ADDED LIKELY POPS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR.
SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY. TWO CRITICAL
FACTORS WILL BE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT ALONG WITH
INSTABILITY VALUES (NAM HAS ABOUT 3 TIMES AS MUCH INSTABILITY AS
GFS...LIKELY DUE TO WET BIAS OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS).

ACCOMPANYING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO. WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW...SHORTWAVES
WILL BEGIN TO CRANK AROUND THE LOW. NAM/SREF BRING A SHORTWAVE ON
TUESDAY ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF
KEEP THE SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH. BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVES AND THE
COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT SOUTH OF THE AREA...HAVE GONE
WITH A BLANKET LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. DIURNAL
SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES WILL SHRINK BY A FEW DEGREES DUE TO CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH THE
LONG TERM WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES PROGGED TO HELP DEEPEN IT THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A SURFACE WAVE COULD DEVELOP AND LIFT ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE. BUT...WITH RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY OPTED TO STAY
CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE VALUES...WHICH KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL VFR WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH DRY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SUPPRESSING PRECIP UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE
OF A MONDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020444
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1244 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL FINISH THE
WEEKEND...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT EAST
OVERNIGHT...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SUNDAY WILL GIVE
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD
FRONT SHOULD MAKE ITS PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME MONDAY
MORNING. DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE ENOUGH TO BUMP UP POPS TO LIKELY
OVER A WIDESPREAD AREA WITH MOISTURE AS A POSSIBLE LIMITING
FACTOR...ALTHOUGH DYNAMICS ALONG THE FRONT ARE FAVORABLE. FOR NOW
HAVE SIMPLY ADDED LIKELY POPS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR.
SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY. TWO CRITICAL
FACTORS WILL BE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT ALONG WITH
INSTABILITY VALUES (NAM HAS ABOUT 3 TIMES AS MUCH INSTABILITY AS
GFS...LIKELY DUE TO WET BIAS OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS).

ACCOMPANYING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO. WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW...SHORTWAVES
WILL BEGIN TO CRANK AROUND THE LOW. NAM/SREF BRING A SHORTWAVE ON
TUESDAY ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF
KEEP THE SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH. BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVES AND THE
COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT SOUTH OF THE AREA...HAVE GONE
WITH A BLANKET LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. DIURNAL
SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES WILL SHRINK BY A FEW DEGREES DUE TO CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH THE
LONG TERM WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES PROGGED TO HELP DEEPEN IT THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A SURFACE WAVE COULD DEVELOP AND LIFT ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE. BUT...WITH RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY OPTED TO STAY
CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE VALUES...WHICH KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL VFR WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH DRY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SUPPRESSING PRECIP UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE
OF A MONDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020444
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1244 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL FINISH THE
WEEKEND...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT EAST
OVERNIGHT...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SUNDAY WILL GIVE
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD
FRONT SHOULD MAKE ITS PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME MONDAY
MORNING. DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE ENOUGH TO BUMP UP POPS TO LIKELY
OVER A WIDESPREAD AREA WITH MOISTURE AS A POSSIBLE LIMITING
FACTOR...ALTHOUGH DYNAMICS ALONG THE FRONT ARE FAVORABLE. FOR NOW
HAVE SIMPLY ADDED LIKELY POPS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR.
SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY. TWO CRITICAL
FACTORS WILL BE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT ALONG WITH
INSTABILITY VALUES (NAM HAS ABOUT 3 TIMES AS MUCH INSTABILITY AS
GFS...LIKELY DUE TO WET BIAS OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS).

ACCOMPANYING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO. WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW...SHORTWAVES
WILL BEGIN TO CRANK AROUND THE LOW. NAM/SREF BRING A SHORTWAVE ON
TUESDAY ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF
KEEP THE SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH. BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVES AND THE
COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT SOUTH OF THE AREA...HAVE GONE
WITH A BLANKET LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. DIURNAL
SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES WILL SHRINK BY A FEW DEGREES DUE TO CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH THE
LONG TERM WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES PROGGED TO HELP DEEPEN IT THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A SURFACE WAVE COULD DEVELOP AND LIFT ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE. BUT...WITH RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY OPTED TO STAY
CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE VALUES...WHICH KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL VFR WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH DRY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SUPPRESSING PRECIP UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE
OF A MONDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020444
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1244 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL FINISH THE
WEEKEND...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT EAST
OVERNIGHT...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SUNDAY WILL GIVE
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD
FRONT SHOULD MAKE ITS PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME MONDAY
MORNING. DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE ENOUGH TO BUMP UP POPS TO LIKELY
OVER A WIDESPREAD AREA WITH MOISTURE AS A POSSIBLE LIMITING
FACTOR...ALTHOUGH DYNAMICS ALONG THE FRONT ARE FAVORABLE. FOR NOW
HAVE SIMPLY ADDED LIKELY POPS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR.
SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY. TWO CRITICAL
FACTORS WILL BE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT ALONG WITH
INSTABILITY VALUES (NAM HAS ABOUT 3 TIMES AS MUCH INSTABILITY AS
GFS...LIKELY DUE TO WET BIAS OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS).

ACCOMPANYING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO. WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW...SHORTWAVES
WILL BEGIN TO CRANK AROUND THE LOW. NAM/SREF BRING A SHORTWAVE ON
TUESDAY ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF
KEEP THE SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH. BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVES AND THE
COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT SOUTH OF THE AREA...HAVE GONE
WITH A BLANKET LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. DIURNAL
SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES WILL SHRINK BY A FEW DEGREES DUE TO CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH THE
LONG TERM WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES PROGGED TO HELP DEEPEN IT THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A SURFACE WAVE COULD DEVELOP AND LIFT ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE. BUT...WITH RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY OPTED TO STAY
CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE VALUES...WHICH KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL VFR WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH DRY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SUPPRESSING PRECIP UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE
OF A MONDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020105
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
905 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE CUMULUS FIELD CONTINUES TO DIE A RATHER SWIFT DEATH THIS
EVENING. A DEARTH OF LAYER MOISTURE WILL YIELD A CLEAR OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE CWA AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS ALONG JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA.

RECENT NIGHTS HAVE INDICATED A VERY STARK DIFFERENTIATION BETWEEN
THE URBAN AREAS AND RURAL AREAS WITH REGARD TO OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES. IT HAS BEEN NOTED THE PAST TWO NIGHTS THAT THE
IMMEDIATE ENVIRONS OF PITTSBURGH CITY HAVE BEEN HELD UP ROUGHLY
6-8 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE AIRPORT. BECAUSE OF ALL THE
CONCRETE...AMPLE DAYTIME SUN...AND LACK OF COOLING RAINFALL...IT
WOULD SEEM THIS DIFFERENTIAL IS LIKELY TO HOLD TONIGHT. SO WHILE
OUTLYING AREAS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA WILL DROP INTO THE
50S...URBAN AREAS MAY WELL STICK IN THE MID 60S.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES GOING INTO SUNDAY. THIS MEANS WARM
ADVECTION WILL BE RETURNING. TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB RUN UP TOWARD
ABOUT +17C ON ALL GUIDANCE. STRONG MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR
WIDESPREAD MID 80S UNDER AMPLE SUN YET AGAIN. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD
FRONT SHOULD MAKE ITS PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME MONDAY
MORNING. DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE ENOUGH TO BUMP UP POPS TO LIKELY
OVER A WIDESPREAD AREA WITH MOISTURE AS A POSSIBLE LIMITING
FACTOR...ALTHOUGH DYNAMICS ALONG THE FRONT ARE FAVORABLE. FOR NOW
HAVE SIMPLY ADDED LIKELY POPS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR.
SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY. TWO CRITICAL
FACTORS WILL BE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT ALONG WITH
INSTABILITY VALUES (NAM HAS ABOUT 3 TIMES AS MUCH INSTABILITY AS
GFS...LIKELY DUE TO WET BIAS OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS).

ACCOMPANYING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO. WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW...SHORTWAVES
WILL BEGIN TO CRANK AROUND THE LOW. NAM/SREF BRING A SHORTWAVE ON
TUESDAY ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF
KEEP THE SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH. BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVES AND THE
COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT SOUTH OF THE AREA...HAVE GONE
WITH A BLANKET LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. DIURNAL
SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES WILL SHRINK BY A FEW DEGREES DUE TO CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH THE
LONG TERM WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES PROGGED TO HELP DEEPEN IT THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A SURFACE WAVE COULD DEVELOP AND LIFT ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE. BUT...WITH RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY OPTED TO STAY
CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE VALUES...WHICH KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL VFR WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH DRY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SUPPRESSING PRECIP UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE
OF A MONDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020105
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
905 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE CUMULUS FIELD CONTINUES TO DIE A RATHER SWIFT DEATH THIS
EVENING. A DEARTH OF LAYER MOISTURE WILL YIELD A CLEAR OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE CWA AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS ALONG JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA.

RECENT NIGHTS HAVE INDICATED A VERY STARK DIFFERENTIATION BETWEEN
THE URBAN AREAS AND RURAL AREAS WITH REGARD TO OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES. IT HAS BEEN NOTED THE PAST TWO NIGHTS THAT THE
IMMEDIATE ENVIRONS OF PITTSBURGH CITY HAVE BEEN HELD UP ROUGHLY
6-8 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE AIRPORT. BECAUSE OF ALL THE
CONCRETE...AMPLE DAYTIME SUN...AND LACK OF COOLING RAINFALL...IT
WOULD SEEM THIS DIFFERENTIAL IS LIKELY TO HOLD TONIGHT. SO WHILE
OUTLYING AREAS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA WILL DROP INTO THE
50S...URBAN AREAS MAY WELL STICK IN THE MID 60S.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES GOING INTO SUNDAY. THIS MEANS WARM
ADVECTION WILL BE RETURNING. TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB RUN UP TOWARD
ABOUT +17C ON ALL GUIDANCE. STRONG MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR
WIDESPREAD MID 80S UNDER AMPLE SUN YET AGAIN. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD
FRONT SHOULD MAKE ITS PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME MONDAY
MORNING. DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE ENOUGH TO BUMP UP POPS TO LIKELY
OVER A WIDESPREAD AREA WITH MOISTURE AS A POSSIBLE LIMITING
FACTOR...ALTHOUGH DYNAMICS ALONG THE FRONT ARE FAVORABLE. FOR NOW
HAVE SIMPLY ADDED LIKELY POPS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR.
SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY. TWO CRITICAL
FACTORS WILL BE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT ALONG WITH
INSTABILITY VALUES (NAM HAS ABOUT 3 TIMES AS MUCH INSTABILITY AS
GFS...LIKELY DUE TO WET BIAS OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS).

ACCOMPANYING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO. WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW...SHORTWAVES
WILL BEGIN TO CRANK AROUND THE LOW. NAM/SREF BRING A SHORTWAVE ON
TUESDAY ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF
KEEP THE SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH. BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVES AND THE
COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT SOUTH OF THE AREA...HAVE GONE
WITH A BLANKET LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. DIURNAL
SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES WILL SHRINK BY A FEW DEGREES DUE TO CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH THE
LONG TERM WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES PROGGED TO HELP DEEPEN IT THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A SURFACE WAVE COULD DEVELOP AND LIFT ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE. BUT...WITH RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY OPTED TO STAY
CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE VALUES...WHICH KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL VFR WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH DRY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SUPPRESSING PRECIP UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE
OF A MONDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020105
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
905 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE CUMULUS FIELD CONTINUES TO DIE A RATHER SWIFT DEATH THIS
EVENING. A DEARTH OF LAYER MOISTURE WILL YIELD A CLEAR OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE CWA AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS ALONG JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA.

RECENT NIGHTS HAVE INDICATED A VERY STARK DIFFERENTIATION BETWEEN
THE URBAN AREAS AND RURAL AREAS WITH REGARD TO OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES. IT HAS BEEN NOTED THE PAST TWO NIGHTS THAT THE
IMMEDIATE ENVIRONS OF PITTSBURGH CITY HAVE BEEN HELD UP ROUGHLY
6-8 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE AIRPORT. BECAUSE OF ALL THE
CONCRETE...AMPLE DAYTIME SUN...AND LACK OF COOLING RAINFALL...IT
WOULD SEEM THIS DIFFERENTIAL IS LIKELY TO HOLD TONIGHT. SO WHILE
OUTLYING AREAS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA WILL DROP INTO THE
50S...URBAN AREAS MAY WELL STICK IN THE MID 60S.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES GOING INTO SUNDAY. THIS MEANS WARM
ADVECTION WILL BE RETURNING. TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB RUN UP TOWARD
ABOUT +17C ON ALL GUIDANCE. STRONG MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR
WIDESPREAD MID 80S UNDER AMPLE SUN YET AGAIN. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD
FRONT SHOULD MAKE ITS PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME MONDAY
MORNING. DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE ENOUGH TO BUMP UP POPS TO LIKELY
OVER A WIDESPREAD AREA WITH MOISTURE AS A POSSIBLE LIMITING
FACTOR...ALTHOUGH DYNAMICS ALONG THE FRONT ARE FAVORABLE. FOR NOW
HAVE SIMPLY ADDED LIKELY POPS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR.
SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY. TWO CRITICAL
FACTORS WILL BE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT ALONG WITH
INSTABILITY VALUES (NAM HAS ABOUT 3 TIMES AS MUCH INSTABILITY AS
GFS...LIKELY DUE TO WET BIAS OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS).

ACCOMPANYING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO. WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW...SHORTWAVES
WILL BEGIN TO CRANK AROUND THE LOW. NAM/SREF BRING A SHORTWAVE ON
TUESDAY ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF
KEEP THE SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH. BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVES AND THE
COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT SOUTH OF THE AREA...HAVE GONE
WITH A BLANKET LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. DIURNAL
SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES WILL SHRINK BY A FEW DEGREES DUE TO CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH THE
LONG TERM WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES PROGGED TO HELP DEEPEN IT THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A SURFACE WAVE COULD DEVELOP AND LIFT ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE. BUT...WITH RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY OPTED TO STAY
CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE VALUES...WHICH KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL VFR WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH DRY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SUPPRESSING PRECIP UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE
OF A MONDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020105
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
905 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE CUMULUS FIELD CONTINUES TO DIE A RATHER SWIFT DEATH THIS
EVENING. A DEARTH OF LAYER MOISTURE WILL YIELD A CLEAR OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE CWA AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS ALONG JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA.

RECENT NIGHTS HAVE INDICATED A VERY STARK DIFFERENTIATION BETWEEN
THE URBAN AREAS AND RURAL AREAS WITH REGARD TO OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES. IT HAS BEEN NOTED THE PAST TWO NIGHTS THAT THE
IMMEDIATE ENVIRONS OF PITTSBURGH CITY HAVE BEEN HELD UP ROUGHLY
6-8 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE AIRPORT. BECAUSE OF ALL THE
CONCRETE...AMPLE DAYTIME SUN...AND LACK OF COOLING RAINFALL...IT
WOULD SEEM THIS DIFFERENTIAL IS LIKELY TO HOLD TONIGHT. SO WHILE
OUTLYING AREAS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA WILL DROP INTO THE
50S...URBAN AREAS MAY WELL STICK IN THE MID 60S.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES GOING INTO SUNDAY. THIS MEANS WARM
ADVECTION WILL BE RETURNING. TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB RUN UP TOWARD
ABOUT +17C ON ALL GUIDANCE. STRONG MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR
WIDESPREAD MID 80S UNDER AMPLE SUN YET AGAIN. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD
FRONT SHOULD MAKE ITS PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME MONDAY
MORNING. DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE ENOUGH TO BUMP UP POPS TO LIKELY
OVER A WIDESPREAD AREA WITH MOISTURE AS A POSSIBLE LIMITING
FACTOR...ALTHOUGH DYNAMICS ALONG THE FRONT ARE FAVORABLE. FOR NOW
HAVE SIMPLY ADDED LIKELY POPS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR.
SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY. TWO CRITICAL
FACTORS WILL BE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT ALONG WITH
INSTABILITY VALUES (NAM HAS ABOUT 3 TIMES AS MUCH INSTABILITY AS
GFS...LIKELY DUE TO WET BIAS OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS).

ACCOMPANYING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO. WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW...SHORTWAVES
WILL BEGIN TO CRANK AROUND THE LOW. NAM/SREF BRING A SHORTWAVE ON
TUESDAY ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF
KEEP THE SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH. BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVES AND THE
COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT SOUTH OF THE AREA...HAVE GONE
WITH A BLANKET LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. DIURNAL
SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES WILL SHRINK BY A FEW DEGREES DUE TO CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH THE
LONG TERM WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES PROGGED TO HELP DEEPEN IT THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A SURFACE WAVE COULD DEVELOP AND LIFT ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE. BUT...WITH RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY OPTED TO STAY
CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE VALUES...WHICH KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL VFR WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH DRY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SUPPRESSING PRECIP UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE
OF A MONDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 012211
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
611 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE CUMULUS FIELD IS ALREADY FADING EARLY THIS EVENING...EXCEPT IN
A CORRIDOR THAT BASICALLY RUNS DOWN THE TURNPIKE. THIS IS A
CORRIDOR ALONG WHICH OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER SPRINKLES/SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHERN CWA HAVE PUSHED A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT IS EVIDENT ON RADAR
IMAGERY. THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR CONTINUED
CONVERGENCE IN THE CORRIDOR...WHICH IS MANIFEST AS A LOCAL
MAXIMIZING CORRIDOR FOR CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT EVEN AFTER PEAK
HEATING. HOWEVER...AS THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FADE INTO
OBLIVION...THIS BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE...AND THE
CUMULUS WILL DO LIKEWISE WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS WILL
YIELD A CLEAR OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CWA.

RECENT NIGHTS HAVE INDICATED A VERY STARK DIFFERENTIATION BETWEEN
THE URBAN AREAS AND RURAL AREAS IN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. IT HAS
BEEN NOTED THE PAST TWO NIGHTS THAT THE IMMEDIATE ENVIRONS OF
PITTSBURGH CITY HAVE BEEN HELD UP ROUGHLY 6-8 DEGREES HIGHER THAN
THE AIRPORT. BECAUSE OF ALL THE CONCRETE...AMPLE DAYTIME SUN...AND
LACK OF COOLING RAINFALL...IT WOULD SEEM THIS DIFFERENTIAL IS
LIKELY TO HOLD TONIGHT. SO WHILE OUTLYING AREAS ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA WILL DROP INTO THE 50S TONIGHT...URBAN AREAS MAY WELL STICK IN
THE MID 60S.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES GOING INTO SUNDAY. THIS MEANS WARM
ADVECTION WILL BE RETURNING. TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB RUN UP TOWARD
ABOUT +17C ON ALL GUIDANCE. STRONG MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR
WIDESPREAD MID 80S UNDER AMPLE SUN YET AGAIN. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD
FRONT SHOULD MAKE ITS PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME MONDAY
MORNING. DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE ENOUGH TO BUMP UP POPS TO LIKELY
OVER A WIDESPREAD AREA WITH MOISTURE AS A POSSIBLE LIMITING
FACTOR...ALTHOUGH DYNAMICS ALONG THE FRONT ARE FAVORABLE. FOR NOW
HAVE SIMPLY ADDED LIKELY POPS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR.
SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY. TWO CRITICAL
FACTORS WILL BE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT ALONG WITH
INSTABILITY VALUES (NAM HAS ABOUT 3 TIMES AS MUCH INSTABILITY AS
GFS...LIKELY DUE TO WET BIAS OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS).

ACCOMPANYING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO. WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW...SHORTWAVES
WILL BEGIN TO CRANK AROUND THE LOW. NAM/SREF BRING A SHORTWAVE ON
TUESDAY ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF
KEEP THE SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH. BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVES AND THE
COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT SOUTH OF THE AREA...HAVE GONE
WITH A BLANKET LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. DIURNAL
SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES WILL SHRINK BY A FEW DEGREES DUE TO CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH THE
LONG TERM WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES PROGGED TO HELP DEEPEN IT THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A SURFACE WAVE COULD DEVELOP AND LIFT ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE. BUT...WITH RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY OPTED TO STAY
CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE VALUES...WHICH KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL VFR WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH DRY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SUPPRESSING PRECIP UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE
OF A MONDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 012211
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
611 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE CUMULUS FIELD IS ALREADY FADING EARLY THIS EVENING...EXCEPT IN
A CORRIDOR THAT BASICALLY RUNS DOWN THE TURNPIKE. THIS IS A
CORRIDOR ALONG WHICH OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER SPRINKLES/SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHERN CWA HAVE PUSHED A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT IS EVIDENT ON RADAR
IMAGERY. THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR CONTINUED
CONVERGENCE IN THE CORRIDOR...WHICH IS MANIFEST AS A LOCAL
MAXIMIZING CORRIDOR FOR CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT EVEN AFTER PEAK
HEATING. HOWEVER...AS THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FADE INTO
OBLIVION...THIS BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE...AND THE
CUMULUS WILL DO LIKEWISE WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS WILL
YIELD A CLEAR OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CWA.

RECENT NIGHTS HAVE INDICATED A VERY STARK DIFFERENTIATION BETWEEN
THE URBAN AREAS AND RURAL AREAS IN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. IT HAS
BEEN NOTED THE PAST TWO NIGHTS THAT THE IMMEDIATE ENVIRONS OF
PITTSBURGH CITY HAVE BEEN HELD UP ROUGHLY 6-8 DEGREES HIGHER THAN
THE AIRPORT. BECAUSE OF ALL THE CONCRETE...AMPLE DAYTIME SUN...AND
LACK OF COOLING RAINFALL...IT WOULD SEEM THIS DIFFERENTIAL IS
LIKELY TO HOLD TONIGHT. SO WHILE OUTLYING AREAS ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA WILL DROP INTO THE 50S TONIGHT...URBAN AREAS MAY WELL STICK IN
THE MID 60S.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES GOING INTO SUNDAY. THIS MEANS WARM
ADVECTION WILL BE RETURNING. TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB RUN UP TOWARD
ABOUT +17C ON ALL GUIDANCE. STRONG MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR
WIDESPREAD MID 80S UNDER AMPLE SUN YET AGAIN. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD
FRONT SHOULD MAKE ITS PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME MONDAY
MORNING. DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE ENOUGH TO BUMP UP POPS TO LIKELY
OVER A WIDESPREAD AREA WITH MOISTURE AS A POSSIBLE LIMITING
FACTOR...ALTHOUGH DYNAMICS ALONG THE FRONT ARE FAVORABLE. FOR NOW
HAVE SIMPLY ADDED LIKELY POPS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR.
SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY. TWO CRITICAL
FACTORS WILL BE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT ALONG WITH
INSTABILITY VALUES (NAM HAS ABOUT 3 TIMES AS MUCH INSTABILITY AS
GFS...LIKELY DUE TO WET BIAS OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS).

ACCOMPANYING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO. WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW...SHORTWAVES
WILL BEGIN TO CRANK AROUND THE LOW. NAM/SREF BRING A SHORTWAVE ON
TUESDAY ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF
KEEP THE SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH. BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVES AND THE
COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT SOUTH OF THE AREA...HAVE GONE
WITH A BLANKET LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. DIURNAL
SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES WILL SHRINK BY A FEW DEGREES DUE TO CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH THE
LONG TERM WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES PROGGED TO HELP DEEPEN IT THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A SURFACE WAVE COULD DEVELOP AND LIFT ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE. BUT...WITH RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY OPTED TO STAY
CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE VALUES...WHICH KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL VFR WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH DRY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SUPPRESSING PRECIP UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE
OF A MONDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011912
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
312 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CUMULUS FIELD HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS LITTLE VERTICAL EXTENT WITH MOST OF THE CLOUDS...THERE ARE SOME
HIGHER CLOUD TOPS ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM MERCER TO INDIANA WITH
SOME RADAR RETURNS. DO NOT THINK THAT THERE WILL BE ANY RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION ALONG THIS CORRIDOR CONSIDERING THE TRANSIENT NATURE
OF THE SHOWERS AS WELL AS TWENTY DEGREE SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS...BUT WILL MENTION SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED SPRINKLES
INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THAT AREA. ALL LOCATIONS FROM
PITTSBURGH TO THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FULLY DRY.

OVERNIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO WEST
VIRGINIA...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER CLEAR NIGHT WITH CALM/LIGHT WINDS.
HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN LAST NIGHT BECAUSE OF THE
BETTER CHANCE OF WINDS GOING CALM ALLOWING FOR FULL RADIATIONAL
COOLING. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT. CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT THE FRONT SHOULD STAY JUST
FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY EVERYWHERE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THANKS TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING...HIGHS SHOULD
INCREASE BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES INTO THE MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD
FRONT SHOULD MAKE ITS PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME MONDAY
MORNING. DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE ENOUGH TO BUMP UP POPS TO LIKELY
OVER A WIDESPREAD AREA WITH MOISTURE AS A POSSIBLE LIMITING
FACTOR...ALTHOUGH DYNAMICS ALONG THE FRONT ARE FAVORABLE. FOR NOW
HAVE SIMPLY ADDED LIKELY POPS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR.
SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY. TWO CRITICAL
FACTORS WILL BE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT ALONG WITH
INSTABILITY VALUES (NAM HAS ABOUT 3 TIMES AS MUCH INSTABILITY AS
GFS...LIKELY DUE TO WET BIAS OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS).

ACCOMPANYING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO. WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW...SHORTWAVES
WILL BEGIN TO CRANK AROUND THE LOW. NAM/SREF BRING A SHORTWAVE ON
TUESDAY ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF
KEEP THE SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH. BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVES AND THE
COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT SOUTH OF THE AREA...HAVE GONE
WITH A BLANKET LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. DIURNAL
SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES WILL SHRINK BY A FEW DEGREES DUE TO CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH THE
LONG TERM WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES PROGGED TO HELP DEEPEN IT THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A SURFACE WAVE COULD DEVELOP AND LIFT ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE. BUT...WITH RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY OPTED TO STAY
CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE VALUES...WHICH KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL VFR WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH DRY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SUPPRESSING PRECIP UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE
OF A MONDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011912
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
312 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CUMULUS FIELD HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS LITTLE VERTICAL EXTENT WITH MOST OF THE CLOUDS...THERE ARE SOME
HIGHER CLOUD TOPS ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM MERCER TO INDIANA WITH
SOME RADAR RETURNS. DO NOT THINK THAT THERE WILL BE ANY RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION ALONG THIS CORRIDOR CONSIDERING THE TRANSIENT NATURE
OF THE SHOWERS AS WELL AS TWENTY DEGREE SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS...BUT WILL MENTION SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED SPRINKLES
INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THAT AREA. ALL LOCATIONS FROM
PITTSBURGH TO THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FULLY DRY.

OVERNIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO WEST
VIRGINIA...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER CLEAR NIGHT WITH CALM/LIGHT WINDS.
HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN LAST NIGHT BECAUSE OF THE
BETTER CHANCE OF WINDS GOING CALM ALLOWING FOR FULL RADIATIONAL
COOLING. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT. CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT THE FRONT SHOULD STAY JUST
FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY EVERYWHERE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THANKS TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING...HIGHS SHOULD
INCREASE BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES INTO THE MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD
FRONT SHOULD MAKE ITS PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME MONDAY
MORNING. DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE ENOUGH TO BUMP UP POPS TO LIKELY
OVER A WIDESPREAD AREA WITH MOISTURE AS A POSSIBLE LIMITING
FACTOR...ALTHOUGH DYNAMICS ALONG THE FRONT ARE FAVORABLE. FOR NOW
HAVE SIMPLY ADDED LIKELY POPS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR.
SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY. TWO CRITICAL
FACTORS WILL BE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT ALONG WITH
INSTABILITY VALUES (NAM HAS ABOUT 3 TIMES AS MUCH INSTABILITY AS
GFS...LIKELY DUE TO WET BIAS OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS).

ACCOMPANYING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO. WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW...SHORTWAVES
WILL BEGIN TO CRANK AROUND THE LOW. NAM/SREF BRING A SHORTWAVE ON
TUESDAY ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF
KEEP THE SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH. BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVES AND THE
COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT SOUTH OF THE AREA...HAVE GONE
WITH A BLANKET LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. DIURNAL
SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES WILL SHRINK BY A FEW DEGREES DUE TO CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH THE
LONG TERM WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES PROGGED TO HELP DEEPEN IT THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A SURFACE WAVE COULD DEVELOP AND LIFT ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE. BUT...WITH RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY OPTED TO STAY
CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE VALUES...WHICH KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL VFR WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH DRY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SUPPRESSING PRECIP UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE
OF A MONDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




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