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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190809
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
409 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY BEGINNING TO THE DAY...BUT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY THIS EVENING
WERE MAINTAINED WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS
THE AREA.

THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
OWING TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AND RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EACH DAY
ALONG WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SHORTWAVES TRANSITION THROUGH THE FLOW
AND CAA ALOFT PERSISTS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE GENERAL FORECAST
AS MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN PROGGING THIS LONGWAVE
PATTERN...REFLECTED IN LATEST RMOP AND MODTRENDS GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION IS RELATIVELY LOW. FORECAST MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES ARE
NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD...BUT PERSISTENT AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMALS AS ENSEMBLE ANOMALIES ARE SHOWING TEMPS AND HEIGHTS ALOFT
ONLY RANGING FROM 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POTENTIAL LLWS CONDITIONS UNTIL GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT LATER THIS
MORNING. NO RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190809
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
409 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY BEGINNING TO THE DAY...BUT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY THIS EVENING
WERE MAINTAINED WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS
THE AREA.

THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
OWING TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AND RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EACH DAY
ALONG WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SHORTWAVES TRANSITION THROUGH THE FLOW
AND CAA ALOFT PERSISTS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE GENERAL FORECAST
AS MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN PROGGING THIS LONGWAVE
PATTERN...REFLECTED IN LATEST RMOP AND MODTRENDS GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION IS RELATIVELY LOW. FORECAST MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES ARE
NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD...BUT PERSISTENT AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMALS AS ENSEMBLE ANOMALIES ARE SHOWING TEMPS AND HEIGHTS ALOFT
ONLY RANGING FROM 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POTENTIAL LLWS CONDITIONS UNTIL GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT LATER THIS
MORNING. NO RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190733
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
333 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY BEGINNING TO THE DAY...BUT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN GREAT SHAPE. JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
CLOUD COVER IN REFERENCE TO THE CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY THIS EVENING
WERE MAINTAINED WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS
THE AREA.

THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
OWING TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AND RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EACH DAY
ALONG WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SHORTWAVES TRANSITION THROUGH THE FLOW
AND CAA ALOFT PERSISTS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE GENERAL FORECAST
AS MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN PROGGING THIS LONGWAVE
PATTERN...REFLECTED IN LATEST RMOP AND MODTRENDS GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION IS RELATIVELY LOW. FORECAST MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES ARE
NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD...BUT PERSISTENT AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMALS AS ENSEMBLE ANOMALIES ARE SHOWING TEMPS AND HEIGHTS ALOFT
ONLY RANGING FROM 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POTENTIAL LLWS CONDITIONS UNTIL GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT LATER THIS
MORNING. NO RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190733
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
333 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY BEGINNING TO THE DAY...BUT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN GREAT SHAPE. JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
CLOUD COVER IN REFERENCE TO THE CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY THIS EVENING
WERE MAINTAINED WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS
THE AREA.

THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
OWING TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AND RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EACH DAY
ALONG WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SHORTWAVES TRANSITION THROUGH THE FLOW
AND CAA ALOFT PERSISTS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE GENERAL FORECAST
AS MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN PROGGING THIS LONGWAVE
PATTERN...REFLECTED IN LATEST RMOP AND MODTRENDS GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION IS RELATIVELY LOW. FORECAST MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES ARE
NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD...BUT PERSISTENT AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMALS AS ENSEMBLE ANOMALIES ARE SHOWING TEMPS AND HEIGHTS ALOFT
ONLY RANGING FROM 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POTENTIAL LLWS CONDITIONS UNTIL GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT LATER THIS
MORNING. NO RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190733
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
333 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY BEGINNING TO THE DAY...BUT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN GREAT SHAPE. JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
CLOUD COVER IN REFERENCE TO THE CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY THIS EVENING
WERE MAINTAINED WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS
THE AREA.

THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
OWING TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AND RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EACH DAY
ALONG WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SHORTWAVES TRANSITION THROUGH THE FLOW
AND CAA ALOFT PERSISTS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE GENERAL FORECAST
AS MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN PROGGING THIS LONGWAVE
PATTERN...REFLECTED IN LATEST RMOP AND MODTRENDS GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION IS RELATIVELY LOW. FORECAST MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES ARE
NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD...BUT PERSISTENT AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMALS AS ENSEMBLE ANOMALIES ARE SHOWING TEMPS AND HEIGHTS ALOFT
ONLY RANGING FROM 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POTENTIAL LLWS CONDITIONS UNTIL GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT LATER THIS
MORNING. NO RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190733
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
333 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY BEGINNING TO THE DAY...BUT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN GREAT SHAPE. JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
CLOUD COVER IN REFERENCE TO THE CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY THIS EVENING
WERE MAINTAINED WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS
THE AREA.

THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
OWING TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AND RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EACH DAY
ALONG WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SHORTWAVES TRANSITION THROUGH THE FLOW
AND CAA ALOFT PERSISTS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE GENERAL FORECAST
AS MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN PROGGING THIS LONGWAVE
PATTERN...REFLECTED IN LATEST RMOP AND MODTRENDS GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION IS RELATIVELY LOW. FORECAST MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES ARE
NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD...BUT PERSISTENT AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMALS AS ENSEMBLE ANOMALIES ARE SHOWING TEMPS AND HEIGHTS ALOFT
ONLY RANGING FROM 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POTENTIAL LLWS CONDITIONS UNTIL GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT LATER THIS
MORNING. NO RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190545
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
145 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY BEGINNING TO THE DAY...BUT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN GREAT SHAPE. JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
CLOUD COVER IN REFERENCE TO THE CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY THIS EVENING
WERE MAINTAINED WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS
THE AREA.

THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
OWING TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE
WEEK...AND POPS WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING
WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POTENTIAL LLWS CONDITIONS UNTIL GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT LATER THIS
MORNING. NO RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190545
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
145 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY BEGINNING TO THE DAY...BUT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN GREAT SHAPE. JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
CLOUD COVER IN REFERENCE TO THE CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY THIS EVENING
WERE MAINTAINED WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS
THE AREA.

THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
OWING TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE
WEEK...AND POPS WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING
WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POTENTIAL LLWS CONDITIONS UNTIL GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT LATER THIS
MORNING. NO RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190545
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
145 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY BEGINNING TO THE DAY...BUT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN GREAT SHAPE. JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
CLOUD COVER IN REFERENCE TO THE CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY THIS EVENING
WERE MAINTAINED WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS
THE AREA.

THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
OWING TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE
WEEK...AND POPS WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING
WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POTENTIAL LLWS CONDITIONS UNTIL GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT LATER THIS
MORNING. NO RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190545
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
145 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY BEGINNING TO THE DAY...BUT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN GREAT SHAPE. JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
CLOUD COVER IN REFERENCE TO THE CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY THIS EVENING
WERE MAINTAINED WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS
THE AREA.

THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
OWING TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE
WEEK...AND POPS WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING
WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POTENTIAL LLWS CONDITIONS UNTIL GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT LATER THIS
MORNING. NO RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190433 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1233 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY BEGINNING TO THE DAY...BUT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN GREAT SHAPE. JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
CLOUD COVER IN REFERENCE TO THE CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY THIS EVENING
WERE MAINTAINED WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS
THE AREA.

THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
OWING TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE
WEEK...AND POPS WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING
WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BRING GUSTY SE WINDS BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WARM FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN SHOWERS LATE
SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190433 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1233 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY BEGINNING TO THE DAY...BUT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN GREAT SHAPE. JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
CLOUD COVER IN REFERENCE TO THE CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY THIS EVENING
WERE MAINTAINED WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS
THE AREA.

THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
OWING TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE
WEEK...AND POPS WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING
WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BRING GUSTY SE WINDS BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WARM FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN SHOWERS LATE
SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190433 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1233 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY BEGINNING TO THE DAY...BUT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN GREAT SHAPE. JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
CLOUD COVER IN REFERENCE TO THE CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY THIS EVENING
WERE MAINTAINED WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS
THE AREA.

THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
OWING TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE
WEEK...AND POPS WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING
WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BRING GUSTY SE WINDS BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WARM FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN SHOWERS LATE
SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190433 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1233 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY BEGINNING TO THE DAY...BUT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN GREAT SHAPE. JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
CLOUD COVER IN REFERENCE TO THE CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY THIS EVENING
WERE MAINTAINED WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS
THE AREA.

THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
OWING TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE
WEEK...AND POPS WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING
WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BRING GUSTY SE WINDS BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WARM FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN SHOWERS LATE
SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190102
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
902 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ONLY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE LATE EVE UPDATE WERE UPWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND AS WEAK FRONT HAS SLID OVER THE PITTSBURGH
AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE GIVEN CLOUD
COVER...RIDGING ALOFT...AND RESUMING WARM ADVECTION.

LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION...AND HOLD
HIGH TEMPS CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES. INCREASING PRECIP
CHANCES THAT CUMULATE IN CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY SUNDAY EVE WERE
MAINTAINED...THEN DECREASED OVERNIGHT WITH EXPECTATIONS OF WARM
FRONT AND SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE PROGRESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LIKELY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WERE MAINTAINED FOR THAT
SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OWING
TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE
WEEK...AND POPS WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING
WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BRING GUSTY SE WINDS BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WARM FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN SHOWERS LATE
SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/07





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190102
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
902 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ONLY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE LATE EVE UPDATE WERE UPWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND AS WEAK FRONT HAS SLID OVER THE PITTSBURGH
AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE GIVEN CLOUD
COVER...RIDGING ALOFT...AND RESUMING WARM ADVECTION.

LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION...AND HOLD
HIGH TEMPS CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES. INCREASING PRECIP
CHANCES THAT CUMULATE IN CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY SUNDAY EVE WERE
MAINTAINED...THEN DECREASED OVERNIGHT WITH EXPECTATIONS OF WARM
FRONT AND SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE PROGRESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LIKELY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WERE MAINTAINED FOR THAT
SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OWING
TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE
WEEK...AND POPS WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING
WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BRING GUSTY SE WINDS BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WARM FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN SHOWERS LATE
SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/07




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 182238
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
638 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ONLY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE EARLY EVE UPDATE WERE UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUD COVER WITH CIRROSTRATUS STREAMING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE AS WARM ADVECTION ENSUES UNDER
SHORTWAVE RIDGE.

LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION...AND HOLD
HIGH TEMPS CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES. INCREASING PRECIP
CHANCES THAT CUMULATE IN CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY SUNDAY EVE WERE
MAINTAINED...THEN DECREASED OVERNIGHT WITH EXPECTATIONS OF WARM
FRONT AND SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE PROGRESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LIKELY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WERE MAINTAINED FOR THAT
SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OWING
TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE
WEEK...AND POPS WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING
WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BRING GUSTY SE WINDS BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WARM FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN SHOWERS LATE
SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/07




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 182238
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
638 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ONLY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE EARLY EVE UPDATE WERE UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUD COVER WITH CIRROSTRATUS STREAMING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE AS WARM ADVECTION ENSUES UNDER
SHORTWAVE RIDGE.

LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION...AND HOLD
HIGH TEMPS CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES. INCREASING PRECIP
CHANCES THAT CUMULATE IN CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY SUNDAY EVE WERE
MAINTAINED...THEN DECREASED OVERNIGHT WITH EXPECTATIONS OF WARM
FRONT AND SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE PROGRESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LIKELY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WERE MAINTAINED FOR THAT
SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OWING
TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE
WEEK...AND POPS WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING
WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BRING GUSTY SE WINDS BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WARM FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN SHOWERS LATE
SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/07





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 182238
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
638 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ONLY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE EARLY EVE UPDATE WERE UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUD COVER WITH CIRROSTRATUS STREAMING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE AS WARM ADVECTION ENSUES UNDER
SHORTWAVE RIDGE.

LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION...AND HOLD
HIGH TEMPS CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES. INCREASING PRECIP
CHANCES THAT CUMULATE IN CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY SUNDAY EVE WERE
MAINTAINED...THEN DECREASED OVERNIGHT WITH EXPECTATIONS OF WARM
FRONT AND SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE PROGRESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LIKELY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WERE MAINTAINED FOR THAT
SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OWING
TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE
WEEK...AND POPS WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING
WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BRING GUSTY SE WINDS BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WARM FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN SHOWERS LATE
SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/07




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 182238
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
638 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ONLY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE EARLY EVE UPDATE WERE UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUD COVER WITH CIRROSTRATUS STREAMING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE AS WARM ADVECTION ENSUES UNDER
SHORTWAVE RIDGE.

LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION...AND HOLD
HIGH TEMPS CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES. INCREASING PRECIP
CHANCES THAT CUMULATE IN CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY SUNDAY EVE WERE
MAINTAINED...THEN DECREASED OVERNIGHT WITH EXPECTATIONS OF WARM
FRONT AND SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE PROGRESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LIKELY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WERE MAINTAINED FOR THAT
SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OWING
TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE
WEEK...AND POPS WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING
WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BRING GUSTY SE WINDS BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WARM FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN SHOWERS LATE
SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID
WEEK UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/07





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181914
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
314 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO A PLEASANT EVENING AND THE
ADDITION OF A FEW MORE HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE AS LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO VEER TO
THE SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY WILL BEGIN DRY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING QUICKLY FROM THE
SOUTH. CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK COMPARED
TO SATURDAYS MARKS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE AVERAGE. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY COMING TOGETHER OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...
SPREADING CLOUDS AND THEN RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA.

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES...REACHING PITTSBURGH BY LATE AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE HIGH TERRAIN WITHIN THE UPSLOPE FLOW...AND
THROUGH OHIO...CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL JET. A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
JUST WEST OF THE RIDGES AS DOWNSLOPING EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL WORK TO COUNTERACT SOME OF THE ASCENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT.
STILL...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT EXISTS WITH THE WARM FRONT THAT
EVERYONE IS EXPECTED TO GET PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN WITH THE WARMER AIR
SUNDAY NIGHT...REDUCING SHOWER CHANCES AND COVERAGE. TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH WILL AID IN ERODING ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SUBSIDENCE
WILL PROMOTE THE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST AIRMASS ON
MONDAY BENEATH 45-50KT OF 500MB SWLY FLOW.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY NEWD THROUGH THE FLOW
AND WILL CROSS THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIFT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE WILL AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY
MID-AFTERNOON MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN FIRST AND ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER 70S...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP...SUPPORTING A THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS
FROM ANY VIGOROUS AND DEEP CONVECTION. WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OWING TO WEAKER MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL BUILD SEWD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING TUESDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL PROVIDE INCREASED
COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION LIKELY WILL BE LIMITED ONLY
TO THE NORTHERN ZONES OWING TO WESTERLY FETCH AND ADVECTION OF
VERY DRY AIR IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. MAXIMA ON TUESDAY WILL
REACH ONLY THE MID-50S AT BEST. KRAMAR

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE
WEEK...AND POPS WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING
WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM NEAR THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND STRONGER SUFACE FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM AN UPPER- TO MID-
LEVEL DECK BEFORE THE LOW CEILINGS AND RAIN COME IN RIGHT AT THE
END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. TAX

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

TAX/KRAMAR





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181914
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
314 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO A PLEASANT EVENING AND THE
ADDITION OF A FEW MORE HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE AS LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO VEER TO
THE SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY WILL BEGIN DRY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING QUICKLY FROM THE
SOUTH. CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK COMPARED
TO SATURDAYS MARKS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE AVERAGE. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY COMING TOGETHER OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...
SPREADING CLOUDS AND THEN RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA.

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES...REACHING PITTSBURGH BY LATE AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE HIGH TERRAIN WITHIN THE UPSLOPE FLOW...AND
THROUGH OHIO...CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL JET. A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
JUST WEST OF THE RIDGES AS DOWNSLOPING EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL WORK TO COUNTERACT SOME OF THE ASCENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT.
STILL...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT EXISTS WITH THE WARM FRONT THAT
EVERYONE IS EXPECTED TO GET PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN WITH THE WARMER AIR
SUNDAY NIGHT...REDUCING SHOWER CHANCES AND COVERAGE. TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH WILL AID IN ERODING ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SUBSIDENCE
WILL PROMOTE THE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST AIRMASS ON
MONDAY BENEATH 45-50KT OF 500MB SWLY FLOW.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY NEWD THROUGH THE FLOW
AND WILL CROSS THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIFT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE WILL AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY
MID-AFTERNOON MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN FIRST AND ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER 70S...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP...SUPPORTING A THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS
FROM ANY VIGOROUS AND DEEP CONVECTION. WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OWING TO WEAKER MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES.

UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL BUILD SEWD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING TUESDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL PROVIDE INCREASED
COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION LIKELY WILL BE LIMITED ONLY
TO THE NORTHERN ZONES OWING TO WESTERLY FETCH AND ADVECTION OF
VERY DRY AIR IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. MAXIMA ON TUESDAY WILL
REACH ONLY THE MID-50S AT BEST. KRAMAR

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE
WEEK...AND POPS WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING
WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM NEAR THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND STRONGER SUFACE FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM AN UPPER- TO MID-
LEVEL DECK BEFORE THE LOW CEILINGS AND RAIN COME IN RIGHT AT THE
END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. TAX

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

TAX/KRAMAR




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181810
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
210 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO A PLEASANT EVENING AND THE ADDITION OF
A FEW MORE HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE AS LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY WILL BEGIN DRY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING QUICKLY FROM THE
SOUTH. CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK COMPARED
TO SATURDAYS MARKS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE AVERAGE. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY COMING TOGETHER OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH DAY SUNDAY SPREADING
CLOUDS AND THEN RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA.

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES...REACHING PITTSBURGH BY LATE AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW...AND
THROUGH OHIO...CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL JET. A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
JUST WEST OF THE RIDGES AS DOWNSLOPING EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL WORK TO COUNTERACT SOME OF THE ASCENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT.
STILL...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT EXISTS WITH THE WARM FRONT THAT
EVERYONE IS EXPECTED TO GET PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN WITH THE WARMER AIR SUNDAY
NIGHT...REDUCING SHOWER CHANCES AND COVERAGE.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY MONDAY...WARMTH UNDER A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND RELATIVE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND MIXING TO SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WIND AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY WANE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HEADS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...STEEPENED
LAPSE RATES VIA COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS TUESDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AND POPS
WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH
WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM NEAR THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND STRONGER SUFACE FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM UPPER TO MID-DECK
BEFORE FINALLY THE LOW CEILINGS AND RAIN COME IN RIGHT AT THE END
OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181810
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
210 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO A PLEASANT EVENING AND THE ADDITION OF
A FEW MORE HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE AS LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY WILL BEGIN DRY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING QUICKLY FROM THE
SOUTH. CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK COMPARED
TO SATURDAYS MARKS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE AVERAGE. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY COMING TOGETHER OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH DAY SUNDAY SPREADING
CLOUDS AND THEN RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA.

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES...REACHING PITTSBURGH BY LATE AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW...AND
THROUGH OHIO...CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL JET. A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
JUST WEST OF THE RIDGES AS DOWNSLOPING EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL WORK TO COUNTERACT SOME OF THE ASCENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT.
STILL...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT EXISTS WITH THE WARM FRONT THAT
EVERYONE IS EXPECTED TO GET PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN WITH THE WARMER AIR SUNDAY
NIGHT...REDUCING SHOWER CHANCES AND COVERAGE.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY MONDAY...WARMTH UNDER A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND RELATIVE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND MIXING TO SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WIND AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY WANE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HEADS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...STEEPENED
LAPSE RATES VIA COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS TUESDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AND POPS
WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH
WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM NEAR THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND STRONGER SUFACE FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM UPPER TO MID-DECK
BEFORE FINALLY THE LOW CEILINGS AND RAIN COME IN RIGHT AT THE END
OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181810
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
210 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO A PLEASANT EVENING AND THE ADDITION OF
A FEW MORE HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE AS LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY WILL BEGIN DRY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING QUICKLY FROM THE
SOUTH. CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK COMPARED
TO SATURDAYS MARKS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE AVERAGE. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY COMING TOGETHER OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH DAY SUNDAY SPREADING
CLOUDS AND THEN RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA.

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES...REACHING PITTSBURGH BY LATE AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW...AND
THROUGH OHIO...CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL JET. A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
JUST WEST OF THE RIDGES AS DOWNSLOPING EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL WORK TO COUNTERACT SOME OF THE ASCENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT.
STILL...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT EXISTS WITH THE WARM FRONT THAT
EVERYONE IS EXPECTED TO GET PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN WITH THE WARMER AIR SUNDAY
NIGHT...REDUCING SHOWER CHANCES AND COVERAGE.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY MONDAY...WARMTH UNDER A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND RELATIVE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND MIXING TO SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WIND AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY WANE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HEADS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...STEEPENED
LAPSE RATES VIA COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS TUESDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AND POPS
WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH
WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM NEAR THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND STRONGER SUFACE FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM UPPER TO MID-DECK
BEFORE FINALLY THE LOW CEILINGS AND RAIN COME IN RIGHT AT THE END
OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181354
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
954 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SKIES RELATIVELY CLEAR...ASIDE FROM SOME PASSING CIRRUS. ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WILL QUICKLY RAISE TEMPERATURE INTO THE 70S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS TODAY. THIS WILL BE THE LAST COMPLETELY DRY AND WARM DAY
FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
AND COMFORTABLE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT...
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS AND
BRINGING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. WITH THE SLOWING PROGRESSION OF THE
WARM FRONT...THE WARM SECTOR WILL NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN WITH THE
WARMER AIR SUNDAY NIGHT...REDUCING SHOWER CHANCES AND COVERAGE.

BY MONDAY...WARMTH UNDER A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND RELATIVE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND MIXING TO SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WIND AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY WANE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HEADS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...STEEPENED
LAPSE RATES VIA COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS TUESDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AND POPS
WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH
WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.


.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181354
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
954 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SKIES RELATIVELY CLEAR...ASIDE FROM SOME PASSING CIRRUS. ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WILL QUICKLY RAISE TEMPERATURE INTO THE 70S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS TODAY. THIS WILL BE THE LAST COMPLETELY DRY AND WARM DAY
FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
AND COMFORTABLE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT...
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS AND
BRINGING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. WITH THE SLOWING PROGRESSION OF THE
WARM FRONT...THE WARM SECTOR WILL NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN WITH THE
WARMER AIR SUNDAY NIGHT...REDUCING SHOWER CHANCES AND COVERAGE.

BY MONDAY...WARMTH UNDER A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND RELATIVE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND MIXING TO SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WIND AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY WANE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HEADS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...STEEPENED
LAPSE RATES VIA COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS TUESDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AND POPS
WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH
WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.


.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181354
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
954 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SKIES RELATIVELY CLEAR...ASIDE FROM SOME PASSING CIRRUS. ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WILL QUICKLY RAISE TEMPERATURE INTO THE 70S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS TODAY. THIS WILL BE THE LAST COMPLETELY DRY AND WARM DAY
FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
AND COMFORTABLE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT...
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS AND
BRINGING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. WITH THE SLOWING PROGRESSION OF THE
WARM FRONT...THE WARM SECTOR WILL NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN WITH THE
WARMER AIR SUNDAY NIGHT...REDUCING SHOWER CHANCES AND COVERAGE.

BY MONDAY...WARMTH UNDER A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND RELATIVE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND MIXING TO SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WIND AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY WANE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HEADS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...STEEPENED
LAPSE RATES VIA COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS TUESDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AND POPS
WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH
WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.


.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181027
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
627 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO UPDATES NEEDED THIS MORNING AS LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED AREAS OF PATCHY FOG THAT
MAY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS WILL DIMINISH
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..

VERY NICE DAY SETTING UP WITH SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...AND
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL PUSH TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
AND COMFORTABLE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT...
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS AND
BRINGING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. WITH THE SLOWING PROGRESSION OF THE
WARM FRONT...THE WARM SECTOR WILL NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN WITH THE
WARMER AIR SUNDAY NIGHT...REDUCING SHOWER CHANCES AND COVERAGE.

BY MONDAY...WARMTH UNDER A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND RELATIVE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND MIXING TO SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WIND AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY WANE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HEADS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...STEEPENED
LAPSE RATES VIA COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS TUESDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AND POPS
WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH
WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG AT LBE AND MGW WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH THIS MORNING ROUGHLY ONE HOUR OR SO AFTER SUNRISE AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MIXING INCREASES. VFR CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.


.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181027
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
627 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO UPDATES NEEDED THIS MORNING AS LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED AREAS OF PATCHY FOG THAT
MAY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS WILL DIMINISH
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..

VERY NICE DAY SETTING UP WITH SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...AND
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL PUSH TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
AND COMFORTABLE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT...
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS AND
BRINGING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. WITH THE SLOWING PROGRESSION OF THE
WARM FRONT...THE WARM SECTOR WILL NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN WITH THE
WARMER AIR SUNDAY NIGHT...REDUCING SHOWER CHANCES AND COVERAGE.

BY MONDAY...WARMTH UNDER A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND RELATIVE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND MIXING TO SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WIND AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY WANE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HEADS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...STEEPENED
LAPSE RATES VIA COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS TUESDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AND POPS
WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH
WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG AT LBE AND MGW WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH THIS MORNING ROUGHLY ONE HOUR OR SO AFTER SUNRISE AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MIXING INCREASES. VFR CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.


.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 180803
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
403 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY NICE DAY SETTING UP WITH SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...AND
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL PUSH TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
AND COMFORTABLE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT...
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS AND
BRINGING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. WITH THE SLOWING PROGRESSION OF THE
WARM FRONT...THE WARM SECTOR WILL NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN WITH THE
WARMER AIR SUNDAY NIGHT...REDUCING SHOWER CHANCES AND COVERAGE.

BY MONDAY...WARMTH UNDER A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND RELATIVE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND MIXING TO SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WIND AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY WANE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HEADS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...STEEPENED
LAPSE RATES VIA COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS TUESDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AND POPS
WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH
WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WIND WILL PREVAIL FOR THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THINK THAT DRIER AIR
MOVING IN SHOULD PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD FORMATION. ONE EXCEPTION
TO THIS IS MGW...WHERE ENOUGH RAIN MAY HAVE FALLEN IN THE LAST
24-36 HOURS TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 180803
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
403 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY NICE DAY SETTING UP WITH SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...AND
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL PUSH TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
AND COMFORTABLE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT...
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS AND
BRINGING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. WITH THE SLOWING PROGRESSION OF THE
WARM FRONT...THE WARM SECTOR WILL NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN WITH THE
WARMER AIR SUNDAY NIGHT...REDUCING SHOWER CHANCES AND COVERAGE.

BY MONDAY...WARMTH UNDER A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND RELATIVE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND MIXING TO SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WIND AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY WANE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HEADS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...STEEPENED
LAPSE RATES VIA COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS TUESDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AND POPS
WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH
WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WIND WILL PREVAIL FOR THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THINK THAT DRIER AIR
MOVING IN SHOULD PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD FORMATION. ONE EXCEPTION
TO THIS IS MGW...WHERE ENOUGH RAIN MAY HAVE FALLEN IN THE LAST
24-36 HOURS TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 180803
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
403 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY NICE DAY SETTING UP WITH SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...AND
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL PUSH TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
AND COMFORTABLE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT...
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS AND
BRINGING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. WITH THE SLOWING PROGRESSION OF THE
WARM FRONT...THE WARM SECTOR WILL NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN WITH THE
WARMER AIR SUNDAY NIGHT...REDUCING SHOWER CHANCES AND COVERAGE.

BY MONDAY...WARMTH UNDER A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND RELATIVE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND MIXING TO SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WIND AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY WANE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HEADS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...STEEPENED
LAPSE RATES VIA COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS TUESDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AND POPS
WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH
WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WIND WILL PREVAIL FOR THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THINK THAT DRIER AIR
MOVING IN SHOULD PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD FORMATION. ONE EXCEPTION
TO THIS IS MGW...WHERE ENOUGH RAIN MAY HAVE FALLEN IN THE LAST
24-36 HOURS TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 180803
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
403 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY NICE DAY SETTING UP WITH SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...AND
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL PUSH TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
AND COMFORTABLE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT...
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS AND
BRINGING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. WITH THE SLOWING PROGRESSION OF THE
WARM FRONT...THE WARM SECTOR WILL NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN WITH THE
WARMER AIR SUNDAY NIGHT...REDUCING SHOWER CHANCES AND COVERAGE.

BY MONDAY...WARMTH UNDER A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND RELATIVE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND MIXING TO SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WIND AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY WANE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HEADS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...STEEPENED
LAPSE RATES VIA COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS TUESDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AND POPS
WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH
WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WIND WILL PREVAIL FOR THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THINK THAT DRIER AIR
MOVING IN SHOULD PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD FORMATION. ONE EXCEPTION
TO THIS IS MGW...WHERE ENOUGH RAIN MAY HAVE FALLEN IN THE LAST
24-36 HOURS TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 180527 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
127 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ONLY CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT FORECAST WILL ACCOUNT FOR THE CIRRUS
SHIELD MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND AN UPDATE
TO TEMPS WITH THE LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

VERY NICE DAY SETTING UP WITH SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGH
CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...AND WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL PUSH TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
AND COMFORTABLE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT...
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS AND
BRINGING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. WITH THE SLOWING PROGRESSION OF THE
WARM FRONT...THE WARM SECTOR WILL NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN WITH THE
WARMER AIR SUNDAY NIGHT...REDUCING SHOWER CHANCES AND COVERAGE.

BY MONDAY...WARMTH UNDER A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND RELATIVE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND MIXING TO SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WIND AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY WANE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HEADS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...STEEPENED
LAPSE RATES VIA COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS TUESDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AND POPS
WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH
WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WIND WILL PREVAIL FOR THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THINK THAT DRIER AIR
MOVING IN SHOULD PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD FORMATION. ONE EXCEPTION
TO THIS IS MGW...WHERE ENOUGH RAIN MAY HAVE FALLEN IN THE LAST
24-36 HOURS TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 180527 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
127 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ONLY CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT FORECAST WILL ACCOUNT FOR THE CIRRUS
SHIELD MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND AN UPDATE
TO TEMPS WITH THE LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

VERY NICE DAY SETTING UP WITH SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGH
CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...AND WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL PUSH TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
AND COMFORTABLE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT...
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS AND
BRINGING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. WITH THE SLOWING PROGRESSION OF THE
WARM FRONT...THE WARM SECTOR WILL NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN WITH THE
WARMER AIR SUNDAY NIGHT...REDUCING SHOWER CHANCES AND COVERAGE.

BY MONDAY...WARMTH UNDER A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND RELATIVE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND MIXING TO SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WIND AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY WANE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HEADS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...STEEPENED
LAPSE RATES VIA COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS TUESDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AND POPS
WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH
WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WIND WILL PREVAIL FOR THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THINK THAT DRIER AIR
MOVING IN SHOULD PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD FORMATION. ONE EXCEPTION
TO THIS IS MGW...WHERE ENOUGH RAIN MAY HAVE FALLEN IN THE LAST
24-36 HOURS TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 180527 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
127 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ONLY CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT FORECAST WILL ACCOUNT FOR THE CIRRUS
SHIELD MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND AN UPDATE
TO TEMPS WITH THE LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

VERY NICE DAY SETTING UP WITH SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGH
CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...AND WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL PUSH TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
AND COMFORTABLE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT...
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS AND
BRINGING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. WITH THE SLOWING PROGRESSION OF THE
WARM FRONT...THE WARM SECTOR WILL NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN WITH THE
WARMER AIR SUNDAY NIGHT...REDUCING SHOWER CHANCES AND COVERAGE.

BY MONDAY...WARMTH UNDER A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND RELATIVE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND MIXING TO SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WIND AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY WANE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HEADS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...STEEPENED
LAPSE RATES VIA COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS TUESDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AND POPS
WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH
WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WIND WILL PREVAIL FOR THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THINK THAT DRIER AIR
MOVING IN SHOULD PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD FORMATION. ONE EXCEPTION
TO THIS IS MGW...WHERE ENOUGH RAIN MAY HAVE FALLEN IN THE LAST
24-36 HOURS TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 180102
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
902 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ONLY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE LATE EVE UPDATE WERE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUDS AND TEMPS.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED BUT CIRROSTRATUS CONTINUES TO STREAM
THROUGH SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION. A QUIET NIGHT
MAY THUS BE EXPECTED WITH TEMPS LEVELING OUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
THE AVERAGES.

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS ALL BUT HIGH CLOUDS
ON SATURDAY...WITH FILTERED INSOLATION DRIVING HIGH TEMPS ABOUT 10
DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMALS DESPITE COOL NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE PROJECTED TO MOVE
QUICKLY OFF THE PLAINS AND PHASE WITH EASTWARD PROGRESS. THE
RESULTING GULF MOISTURE TAP IS LIKELY TO FUEL SHOWERS FOR THE
UPPER OHIO REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

BY MONDAY...WARMTH UNDER A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND RELATIVE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND MIXING TO SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WIND AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY WANE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HEADS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...STEEPENED
LAPSE RATES VIA COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS TUESDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AND POPS
WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH
WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WIND WILL PREVAIL FOR THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THINK THAT DRIER AIR
MOVING IN SHOULD PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD FORMATION. ONE EXCEPTION
TO THIS IS MGW...WHERE ENOUGH RAIN MAY HAVE FALLEN IN THE LAST
24-36 HOURS TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/33





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 180102
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
902 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ONLY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE LATE EVE UPDATE WERE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUDS AND TEMPS.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED BUT CIRROSTRATUS CONTINUES TO STREAM
THROUGH SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION. A QUIET NIGHT
MAY THUS BE EXPECTED WITH TEMPS LEVELING OUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
THE AVERAGES.

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS ALL BUT HIGH CLOUDS
ON SATURDAY...WITH FILTERED INSOLATION DRIVING HIGH TEMPS ABOUT 10
DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMALS DESPITE COOL NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE PROJECTED TO MOVE
QUICKLY OFF THE PLAINS AND PHASE WITH EASTWARD PROGRESS. THE
RESULTING GULF MOISTURE TAP IS LIKELY TO FUEL SHOWERS FOR THE
UPPER OHIO REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

BY MONDAY...WARMTH UNDER A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND RELATIVE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND MIXING TO SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WIND AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY WANE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HEADS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...STEEPENED
LAPSE RATES VIA COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS TUESDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AND POPS
WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH
WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WIND WILL PREVAIL FOR THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THINK THAT DRIER AIR
MOVING IN SHOULD PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD FORMATION. ONE EXCEPTION
TO THIS IS MGW...WHERE ENOUGH RAIN MAY HAVE FALLEN IN THE LAST
24-36 HOURS TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/33




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 180102
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
902 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ONLY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE LATE EVE UPDATE WERE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUDS AND TEMPS.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED BUT CIRROSTRATUS CONTINUES TO STREAM
THROUGH SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION. A QUIET NIGHT
MAY THUS BE EXPECTED WITH TEMPS LEVELING OUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
THE AVERAGES.

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS ALL BUT HIGH CLOUDS
ON SATURDAY...WITH FILTERED INSOLATION DRIVING HIGH TEMPS ABOUT 10
DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMALS DESPITE COOL NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE PROJECTED TO MOVE
QUICKLY OFF THE PLAINS AND PHASE WITH EASTWARD PROGRESS. THE
RESULTING GULF MOISTURE TAP IS LIKELY TO FUEL SHOWERS FOR THE
UPPER OHIO REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

BY MONDAY...WARMTH UNDER A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND RELATIVE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND MIXING TO SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WIND AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY WANE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HEADS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...STEEPENED
LAPSE RATES VIA COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS TUESDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AND POPS
WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH
WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WIND WILL PREVAIL FOR THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THINK THAT DRIER AIR
MOVING IN SHOULD PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD FORMATION. ONE EXCEPTION
TO THIS IS MGW...WHERE ENOUGH RAIN MAY HAVE FALLEN IN THE LAST
24-36 HOURS TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/33




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 180102
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
902 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ONLY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE LATE EVE UPDATE WERE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUDS AND TEMPS.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED BUT CIRROSTRATUS CONTINUES TO STREAM
THROUGH SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION. A QUIET NIGHT
MAY THUS BE EXPECTED WITH TEMPS LEVELING OUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
THE AVERAGES.

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS ALL BUT HIGH CLOUDS
ON SATURDAY...WITH FILTERED INSOLATION DRIVING HIGH TEMPS ABOUT 10
DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMALS DESPITE COOL NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE PROJECTED TO MOVE
QUICKLY OFF THE PLAINS AND PHASE WITH EASTWARD PROGRESS. THE
RESULTING GULF MOISTURE TAP IS LIKELY TO FUEL SHOWERS FOR THE
UPPER OHIO REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

BY MONDAY...WARMTH UNDER A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND RELATIVE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND MIXING TO SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WIND AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY WANE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HEADS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...STEEPENED
LAPSE RATES VIA COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS TUESDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AND POPS
WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH
WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WIND WILL PREVAIL FOR THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THINK THAT DRIER AIR
MOVING IN SHOULD PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD FORMATION. ONE EXCEPTION
TO THIS IS MGW...WHERE ENOUGH RAIN MAY HAVE FALLEN IN THE LAST
24-36 HOURS TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/33





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 172156
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
556 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ONLY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE EARLY EVE UPDATE WERE DOWNWARD TWEAKS
TO CLOUD COVER.

CLEARING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AS TEMPS FALL BELOW
CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
SUPPRESS CLOUDS ON SATURDAY...WITH INSOLATION DRIVING HIGH TEMPS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE PROJECTED TO MOVE
QUICKLY OFF THE PLAINS AND PHASE WITH EASTWARD PROGRESS. THE
RESULTING GULF MOISTURE TAP IS LIKELY TO FUEL SHOWERS FOR THE
UPPER OHIO REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

BY MONDAY...WARMTH UNDER A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND RELATIVE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND MIXING TO SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WIND AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY WANE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HEADS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...NW FLOW IN
COOL 850HPA TEMPS MAY SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS TUESDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AND POPS
WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH
WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WIND WILL PREVAIL FOR THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 172156
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
556 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ONLY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE EARLY EVE UPDATE WERE DOWNWARD TWEAKS
TO CLOUD COVER.

CLEARING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AS TEMPS FALL BELOW
CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
SUPPRESS CLOUDS ON SATURDAY...WITH INSOLATION DRIVING HIGH TEMPS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE PROJECTED TO MOVE
QUICKLY OFF THE PLAINS AND PHASE WITH EASTWARD PROGRESS. THE
RESULTING GULF MOISTURE TAP IS LIKELY TO FUEL SHOWERS FOR THE
UPPER OHIO REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

BY MONDAY...WARMTH UNDER A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND RELATIVE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND MIXING TO SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WIND AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY WANE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HEADS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...NW FLOW IN
COOL 850HPA TEMPS MAY SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS TUESDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AND POPS
WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH
WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WIND WILL PREVAIL FOR THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 172156
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
556 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ONLY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE EARLY EVE UPDATE WERE DOWNWARD TWEAKS
TO CLOUD COVER.

CLEARING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AS TEMPS FALL BELOW
CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
SUPPRESS CLOUDS ON SATURDAY...WITH INSOLATION DRIVING HIGH TEMPS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE PROJECTED TO MOVE
QUICKLY OFF THE PLAINS AND PHASE WITH EASTWARD PROGRESS. THE
RESULTING GULF MOISTURE TAP IS LIKELY TO FUEL SHOWERS FOR THE
UPPER OHIO REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

BY MONDAY...WARMTH UNDER A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND RELATIVE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND MIXING TO SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WIND AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY WANE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HEADS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...NW FLOW IN
COOL 850HPA TEMPS MAY SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS TUESDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AND POPS
WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH
WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WIND WILL PREVAIL FOR THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 171852
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
252 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN OF GARRETT/TUCKER
COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE A DRIER FORECAST
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

CLOUDS STILL PREVALENT ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. HIGH PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO ERODE
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES ARE JUMPING UP IN
THE AREAS THAT HAVE CLEARED ACROSS EASTERN OHIO. GRADUAL CLEARING
FROM WEST TO EAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH MOST
LOCATIONS RELATIVELY CLEAR NEAR SUNSET.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH IN THE VICINITY TONIGHT IS BOLSTERED BY A MORE
POTENT HIGH MOVING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AS WELL AS
RIDGING ALOFT. THE RESULT WILL BE SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE MID 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WEATHER BENIGN THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY EVENING TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE QUICKLY OUT OF THE PLAINS AND APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES. THE
NORTHERN LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER WESTERN ONTARIO AND BEGIN TO PHASE
IN THE SOUTHERN LOW AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD ALONG WITH A WARM
FRONT THAT WILL SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY INITIALLY QUELL SHOWERS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIDGES WITH THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS...BUT THIS
WILL BE QUICKLY OVERCOME BY THE STRONG SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FEED.

LATE SUNDAY THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTH OF THE
AREA...AND THE WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTHERLY IN A DRY SLOT. THIS
DRY SECTOR SHOULD LIMIT SHOWER PRODUCTION...KEPT POPS AT CHANCES
THROUGH THIS TIME. THE 850MB LOW WILL BE NEARING LAKE MICHIGAN
AND BRINGING WITH IT A STRONG LOW- LEVEL JET. THE AXIS OF THIS JET
WILL CROSS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN STRONG WINDS
MIXING TO THE SURFACE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES RAMP BACK UP MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
FRONT SWINGS THROUGH. COLDER AIR IN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVELS
RESULTING IN MODEST INSTABILITY ON THE BUFR SOUNDINGS. MONDAY IS
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER RETURNING TO THE AREA.
TAX.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES WILL QUICKLY WANE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS THE BULK OF
THE MOISTURE HEADS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...NW FLOW IN COOL 850HPA
TEMPS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS TUESDAY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH HAVING INFLUENCE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN US.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER
IN THE WEEK...POPS WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE LEFT WPC
GUIDANCE...WHICH WAS JUST AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BEFORE SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE
AND SUBSIDENCE TAKES PLACE. LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SURFACE RIDGE OVERHEAD.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH THE APPROACH OF LOW
PRESSURE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 171852
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
252 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN OF GARRETT/TUCKER
COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE A DRIER FORECAST
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

CLOUDS STILL PREVALENT ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. HIGH PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO ERODE
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES ARE JUMPING UP IN
THE AREAS THAT HAVE CLEARED ACROSS EASTERN OHIO. GRADUAL CLEARING
FROM WEST TO EAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH MOST
LOCATIONS RELATIVELY CLEAR NEAR SUNSET.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH IN THE VICINITY TONIGHT IS BOLSTERED BY A MORE
POTENT HIGH MOVING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AS WELL AS
RIDGING ALOFT. THE RESULT WILL BE SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE MID 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WEATHER BENIGN THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY EVENING TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE QUICKLY OUT OF THE PLAINS AND APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES. THE
NORTHERN LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER WESTERN ONTARIO AND BEGIN TO PHASE
IN THE SOUTHERN LOW AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD ALONG WITH A WARM
FRONT THAT WILL SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY INITIALLY QUELL SHOWERS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIDGES WITH THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS...BUT THIS
WILL BE QUICKLY OVERCOME BY THE STRONG SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FEED.

LATE SUNDAY THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTH OF THE
AREA...AND THE WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTHERLY IN A DRY SLOT. THIS
DRY SECTOR SHOULD LIMIT SHOWER PRODUCTION...KEPT POPS AT CHANCES
THROUGH THIS TIME. THE 850MB LOW WILL BE NEARING LAKE MICHIGAN
AND BRINGING WITH IT A STRONG LOW- LEVEL JET. THE AXIS OF THIS JET
WILL CROSS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN STRONG WINDS
MIXING TO THE SURFACE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES RAMP BACK UP MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
FRONT SWINGS THROUGH. COLDER AIR IN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVELS
RESULTING IN MODEST INSTABILITY ON THE BUFR SOUNDINGS. MONDAY IS
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER RETURNING TO THE AREA.
TAX.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES WILL QUICKLY WANE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS THE BULK OF
THE MOISTURE HEADS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...NW FLOW IN COOL 850HPA
TEMPS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS TUESDAY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH HAVING INFLUENCE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN US.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER
IN THE WEEK...POPS WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE LEFT WPC
GUIDANCE...WHICH WAS JUST AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BEFORE SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE
AND SUBSIDENCE TAKES PLACE. LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SURFACE RIDGE OVERHEAD.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH THE APPROACH OF LOW
PRESSURE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 171518
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1118 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LAST REMAINING SHOWERS CONFINED TO OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
AS THE AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF SHIFTS EAST. EXPECTING SOME
MODEST RE-DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LINE EAST OF MORGANTOWN...BEFORE
ALL SHOWERS PUSH OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

CLOUDS STILL PREVALENT ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...LEADING TO GRADUAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO
EAST. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY CLEAR NEAR SUNSET.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH IN THE VICINITY TONIGHT IS BOLSTERED BY A MORE
POTENT HIGH MOVING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AS WELL AS
RIDGING ALOFT. THE RESULT WILL BE SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE MID 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROAD CANADIAN HIGH WILL BRING MUCH DRIER AIR IN TONIGHT...WHICH
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT AS STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY DRIFTS
EASTWARD SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE PUSHED THE ONSET OF SHOWERS BACK ON
SUNDAY DUE TO INCREASED SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
AS A WARM FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST...BEGINS TO SWING THROUGH.

WITH ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE AND STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND EVENTUALLY CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
LATE MONDAY. SEEING SOME ATMOSPHERIC DESTABILIZATION MONDAY
AFTERNOON...SO INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS.

AREA WILL DRY OUT MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DECREASES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO
LARGE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST OF ALL OF THE TERMINALS AS OF MID MORNING.
SOME LINGERING IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY REMAIN AT KFKL AND
KDUJ...BUT FURTHER SOUTH MVFR CIGS ARE SLOWLY LIFTING TOWARD VFR.
AN IMPROVEMENT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE...WITH VFR ANTICIPATED AT
MOST SITES BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NW FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP SOME
CLOUDS OVER THE REGION UNTIL LATE HOWEVER.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH THE
APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 170757
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
357 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH. A DRY AND SEASONABLE
BEGINNING TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING...REQUIRING A
CONTINUATION OF POPS AHEAD OF BOUNDARY UNTIL IT EXITS. WOULD THINK
THAT ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ALONG FRONT WILL BE SCATTERED AND
LIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS WEAK. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA UNTIL THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXITS. SHOULD SEE A SLOW DECREASE
IN CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE
LINGERING CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN FROM FULL
POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROAD CANADIAN HIGH WILL BRING MUCH DRIER AIR IN TONIGHT...WHICH
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT AS STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY DRIFTS
EASTWARD SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE PUSHED THE ONSET OF SHOWERS BACK ON
SUNDAY DUE TO INCREASED SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
AS A WARM FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST...BEGINS TO SWING THROUGH.

WITH ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE AND STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND EVENTUALLY CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
LATE MONDAY. SEEING SOME ATMOSPHERIC DESTABILIZATION MONDAY
AFTERNOON...SO INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS.

AREA WILL DRY OUT MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DECREASES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO
LARGE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN OHIO WILL SLOWLY
SAG INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS A SURFACE
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH. CIGS WILL DETERIORATE SLOWLY...HOWEVER
GIVEN UPSTREAM TRENDS...WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE TOUGH TO
MUSTER...CONTRARY TO THE PREPONDERANCE OF STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE LIKLELY AS THE LOW LEVEL
SATURATE FURTHER FROM INCOMING SHOWERS. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST
AS THE SURFACE TROUGH PASSES...WHICH SHOULD ERODE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SCATTER OUT CLOUDS BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON EVERYWHERE. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH THE
APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 170757
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
357 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH. A DRY AND SEASONABLE
BEGINNING TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING...REQUIRING A
CONTINUATION OF POPS AHEAD OF BOUNDARY UNTIL IT EXITS. WOULD THINK
THAT ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ALONG FRONT WILL BE SCATTERED AND
LIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS WEAK. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA UNTIL THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXITS. SHOULD SEE A SLOW DECREASE
IN CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE
LINGERING CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN FROM FULL
POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROAD CANADIAN HIGH WILL BRING MUCH DRIER AIR IN TONIGHT...WHICH
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT AS STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY DRIFTS
EASTWARD SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE PUSHED THE ONSET OF SHOWERS BACK ON
SUNDAY DUE TO INCREASED SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
AS A WARM FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST...BEGINS TO SWING THROUGH.

WITH ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE AND STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND EVENTUALLY CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
LATE MONDAY. SEEING SOME ATMOSPHERIC DESTABILIZATION MONDAY
AFTERNOON...SO INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS.

AREA WILL DRY OUT MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DECREASES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO
LARGE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN OHIO WILL SLOWLY
SAG INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS A SURFACE
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH. CIGS WILL DETERIORATE SLOWLY...HOWEVER
GIVEN UPSTREAM TRENDS...WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE TOUGH TO
MUSTER...CONTRARY TO THE PREPONDERANCE OF STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE LIKLELY AS THE LOW LEVEL
SATURATE FURTHER FROM INCOMING SHOWERS. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST
AS THE SURFACE TROUGH PASSES...WHICH SHOULD ERODE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SCATTER OUT CLOUDS BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON EVERYWHERE. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH THE
APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 170757
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
357 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH. A DRY AND SEASONABLE
BEGINNING TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING...REQUIRING A
CONTINUATION OF POPS AHEAD OF BOUNDARY UNTIL IT EXITS. WOULD THINK
THAT ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ALONG FRONT WILL BE SCATTERED AND
LIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS WEAK. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA UNTIL THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXITS. SHOULD SEE A SLOW DECREASE
IN CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE
LINGERING CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN FROM FULL
POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROAD CANADIAN HIGH WILL BRING MUCH DRIER AIR IN TONIGHT...WHICH
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT AS STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY DRIFTS
EASTWARD SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE PUSHED THE ONSET OF SHOWERS BACK ON
SUNDAY DUE TO INCREASED SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
AS A WARM FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST...BEGINS TO SWING THROUGH.

WITH ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE AND STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND EVENTUALLY CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
LATE MONDAY. SEEING SOME ATMOSPHERIC DESTABILIZATION MONDAY
AFTERNOON...SO INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS.

AREA WILL DRY OUT MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DECREASES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO
LARGE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN OHIO WILL SLOWLY
SAG INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS A SURFACE
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH. CIGS WILL DETERIORATE SLOWLY...HOWEVER
GIVEN UPSTREAM TRENDS...WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE TOUGH TO
MUSTER...CONTRARY TO THE PREPONDERANCE OF STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE LIKLELY AS THE LOW LEVEL
SATURATE FURTHER FROM INCOMING SHOWERS. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST
AS THE SURFACE TROUGH PASSES...WHICH SHOULD ERODE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SCATTER OUT CLOUDS BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON EVERYWHERE. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH THE
APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 170757
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
357 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH. A DRY AND SEASONABLE
BEGINNING TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING...REQUIRING A
CONTINUATION OF POPS AHEAD OF BOUNDARY UNTIL IT EXITS. WOULD THINK
THAT ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ALONG FRONT WILL BE SCATTERED AND
LIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS WEAK. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA UNTIL THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXITS. SHOULD SEE A SLOW DECREASE
IN CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE
LINGERING CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN FROM FULL
POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROAD CANADIAN HIGH WILL BRING MUCH DRIER AIR IN TONIGHT...WHICH
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT AS STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY DRIFTS
EASTWARD SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE PUSHED THE ONSET OF SHOWERS BACK ON
SUNDAY DUE TO INCREASED SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
AS A WARM FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST...BEGINS TO SWING THROUGH.

WITH ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE AND STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND EVENTUALLY CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
LATE MONDAY. SEEING SOME ATMOSPHERIC DESTABILIZATION MONDAY
AFTERNOON...SO INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS.

AREA WILL DRY OUT MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DECREASES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO
LARGE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN OHIO WILL SLOWLY
SAG INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS A SURFACE
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH. CIGS WILL DETERIORATE SLOWLY...HOWEVER
GIVEN UPSTREAM TRENDS...WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE TOUGH TO
MUSTER...CONTRARY TO THE PREPONDERANCE OF STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE LIKLELY AS THE LOW LEVEL
SATURATE FURTHER FROM INCOMING SHOWERS. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST
AS THE SURFACE TROUGH PASSES...WHICH SHOULD ERODE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SCATTER OUT CLOUDS BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON EVERYWHERE. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH THE
APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 170550
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
150 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH. A DRY AND SEASONABLE
BEGINNING TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LOWERED POPS OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND MOISTURE IS
QUICKLY EXITING TO THE EAST. COULD SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT.

SURFACE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY MID-MORNING...REQUIRING A
CONTINUATION OF POPS AHEAD OF BOUNDARY UNTIL IT EXITS. WOULD THINK
THAT ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ALONG FRONT WILL BE SCATTERED AND
LIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS WEAK. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA UNTIL THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXITS. SHOULD SEE A SLOW DECREASE
IN CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
THE LINGERING CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN FROM FULL
POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROAD CANADIAN HIGH WILL BRING MUCH DRIER AIR IN TONIGHT...WHICH
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT AS STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY DRIFTS
EASTWARD SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE PUSHED THE ONSET OF SHOWERS BACK ON
SUNDAY DUE TO INCREASED SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
AS A WARM FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST...BEGINS TO SWING THROUGH.

WITH ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE AND STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND EVENTUALLY CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
LATE MONDAY. SEEING SOME ATMOSPHERIC DESTABILIZATION MONDAY
AFTERNOON...SO INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS.

AREA WILL DRY OUT MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DECREASES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO
LARGE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN OHIO WILL SLOWLY
SAG INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS A SURFACE
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH. CIGS WILL DETERIORATE SLOWLY...HOWEVER
GIVEN UPSTREAM TRENDS...WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE TOUGH TO
MUSTER...CONTRARY TO THE PREPONDERANCE OF STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE LIKLELY AS THE LOW LEVEL
SATURATE FURTHER FROM INCOMING SHOWERS. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST
AS THE SURFACE TROUGH PASSES...WHICH SHOULD ERODE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SCATTER OUT CLOUDS BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON EVERYWHERE. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH THE
APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 170550
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
150 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH. A DRY AND SEASONABLE
BEGINNING TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LOWERED POPS OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND MOISTURE IS
QUICKLY EXITING TO THE EAST. COULD SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT.

SURFACE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY MID-MORNING...REQUIRING A
CONTINUATION OF POPS AHEAD OF BOUNDARY UNTIL IT EXITS. WOULD THINK
THAT ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ALONG FRONT WILL BE SCATTERED AND
LIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS WEAK. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA UNTIL THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXITS. SHOULD SEE A SLOW DECREASE
IN CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
THE LINGERING CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN FROM FULL
POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROAD CANADIAN HIGH WILL BRING MUCH DRIER AIR IN TONIGHT...WHICH
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT AS STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY DRIFTS
EASTWARD SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE PUSHED THE ONSET OF SHOWERS BACK ON
SUNDAY DUE TO INCREASED SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
AS A WARM FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST...BEGINS TO SWING THROUGH.

WITH ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE AND STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND EVENTUALLY CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
LATE MONDAY. SEEING SOME ATMOSPHERIC DESTABILIZATION MONDAY
AFTERNOON...SO INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS.

AREA WILL DRY OUT MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DECREASES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO
LARGE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN OHIO WILL SLOWLY
SAG INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS A SURFACE
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH. CIGS WILL DETERIORATE SLOWLY...HOWEVER
GIVEN UPSTREAM TRENDS...WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE TOUGH TO
MUSTER...CONTRARY TO THE PREPONDERANCE OF STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE LIKLELY AS THE LOW LEVEL
SATURATE FURTHER FROM INCOMING SHOWERS. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST
AS THE SURFACE TROUGH PASSES...WHICH SHOULD ERODE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SCATTER OUT CLOUDS BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON EVERYWHERE. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH THE
APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 170528 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
128 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH. A DRY AND SEASONABLE
BEGINNING TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LOWERED POPS OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND MOISTURE IS
QUICKLY EXITING TO THE EAST. COULD SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT.

SURFACE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY MID-MORNING...REQUIRING A
CONTINUATION OF POPS AHEAD OF BOUNDARY UNTIL IT EXITS. WOULD THINK
THAT ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ALONG FRONT WILL BE SCATTERED AND
LIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS WEAK. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA UNTIL THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXITS. SHOULD SEE A SLOW DECREASE
IN CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
THE LINGERING CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN FROM FULL
POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROAD CANADIAN HIGH WILL BRING MUCH DRIER AIR IN TONIGHT...WHICH
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT AS STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY DRIFTS
EASTWARD SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE PUSHED THE ONSET OF SHOWERS BACK ON
SUNDAY DUE TO INCREASED SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
AS A WARM FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST...BEGINS TO SWING THROUGH.

WITH ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE AND STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND EVENTUALLY CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
LATE MONDAY. SEEING SOME ATMOSPHERIC DESTABILIZATION MONDAY
AFTERNOON...SO INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS.

AREA WILL DRY OUT MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DECREASES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO
LARGE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING UNDER A PASSING SHORTWAVE. A GRADUAL DETERIORATION TO MVFR
AND IFR CIGS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT MOST PORTS AS THE WEAK
SURFACE REFLECTION CROSSES.

THE TAFS WERE BASED ON SREF PROBABILITIES AND BUFKIT MOISTURE
PROFILE TIMING...AS THE NAM AND LAMP SEEM TO BE OVERLY PESSIMISTIC.

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BACK TO MVFR WILL OCCUR TOMORROW AS THE
DISTURBANCE EXITS.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH THE
APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 170528 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
128 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH. A DRY AND SEASONABLE
BEGINNING TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LOWERED POPS OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND MOISTURE IS
QUICKLY EXITING TO THE EAST. COULD SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT.

SURFACE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY MID-MORNING...REQUIRING A
CONTINUATION OF POPS AHEAD OF BOUNDARY UNTIL IT EXITS. WOULD THINK
THAT ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ALONG FRONT WILL BE SCATTERED AND
LIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS WEAK. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA UNTIL THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXITS. SHOULD SEE A SLOW DECREASE
IN CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
THE LINGERING CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN FROM FULL
POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROAD CANADIAN HIGH WILL BRING MUCH DRIER AIR IN TONIGHT...WHICH
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT AS STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY DRIFTS
EASTWARD SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE PUSHED THE ONSET OF SHOWERS BACK ON
SUNDAY DUE TO INCREASED SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
AS A WARM FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST...BEGINS TO SWING THROUGH.

WITH ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE AND STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND EVENTUALLY CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
LATE MONDAY. SEEING SOME ATMOSPHERIC DESTABILIZATION MONDAY
AFTERNOON...SO INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS.

AREA WILL DRY OUT MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DECREASES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO
LARGE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING UNDER A PASSING SHORTWAVE. A GRADUAL DETERIORATION TO MVFR
AND IFR CIGS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT MOST PORTS AS THE WEAK
SURFACE REFLECTION CROSSES.

THE TAFS WERE BASED ON SREF PROBABILITIES AND BUFKIT MOISTURE
PROFILE TIMING...AS THE NAM AND LAMP SEEM TO BE OVERLY PESSIMISTIC.

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BACK TO MVFR WILL OCCUR TOMORROW AS THE
DISTURBANCE EXITS.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH THE
APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 170127
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
927 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRY
START TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RAIN HAS GENERALLY MOVED EAST OF THE REGION...WITH
SHOWERS ACROSS OHIO OF AN ISOLATED/SCATTERED NATURE. HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING A LITTLE DRIER WITH RAIN
PASSING THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND HAVE DECIDED TO
TREND DOWN WITH POPS. HAVE NOT MADE MAJOR CHANGES TO POPS...AND
HAVE STILL GONE WITH 50 POPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 50S...WITH MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF
OHIO REMAINING RELATIVELY STEADY WITH TEMPERATURES.

FOR FRIDAY BOUNDARY WILL BE EXITING EAST TAKING LEFTOVER SHOWERS
WITH IT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BREAK OUT CLOUDS
FOR THE AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COOLING BEHIND FRONT
WITH MAX TEMPS MID 60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTH FROM CANADA WITH A WEAK
AND MOISTURE STARVED BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHING ACROSS REGION. HAVE
GONE BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS DESPITE SUNSHINE AS COOL
ADVECTION FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IS EXPECTED. DRY AND
SEASONAL SATURDAY NIGHT. NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AS A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION. LEAD
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION IN WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS STILL SHOWING A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL RETURN BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING UNDER A PASSING SHORTWAVE. A GRADUAL DETERIORATION TO MVFR
AND IFR CIGS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT MOST PORTS AS THE WEAK
SURFACE REFLECTION CROSSES.

THE TAFS WERE BASED ON SREF PROBABILITIES AND BUFKIT MOISTURE
PROFILE TIMING...AS THE NAM AND LAMP SEEM TO BE OVERLY PESSIMISTIC.

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BACK TO MVFR WILL OCCUR TOMORROW AS THE
DISTURBANCE EXITS.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH THE
APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 170127
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
927 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRY
START TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RAIN HAS GENERALLY MOVED EAST OF THE REGION...WITH
SHOWERS ACROSS OHIO OF AN ISOLATED/SCATTERED NATURE. HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING A LITTLE DRIER WITH RAIN
PASSING THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND HAVE DECIDED TO
TREND DOWN WITH POPS. HAVE NOT MADE MAJOR CHANGES TO POPS...AND
HAVE STILL GONE WITH 50 POPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 50S...WITH MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF
OHIO REMAINING RELATIVELY STEADY WITH TEMPERATURES.

FOR FRIDAY BOUNDARY WILL BE EXITING EAST TAKING LEFTOVER SHOWERS
WITH IT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BREAK OUT CLOUDS
FOR THE AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COOLING BEHIND FRONT
WITH MAX TEMPS MID 60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTH FROM CANADA WITH A WEAK
AND MOISTURE STARVED BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHING ACROSS REGION. HAVE
GONE BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS DESPITE SUNSHINE AS COOL
ADVECTION FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IS EXPECTED. DRY AND
SEASONAL SATURDAY NIGHT. NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AS A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION. LEAD
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION IN WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS STILL SHOWING A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL RETURN BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING UNDER A PASSING SHORTWAVE. A GRADUAL DETERIORATION TO MVFR
AND IFR CIGS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT MOST PORTS AS THE WEAK
SURFACE REFLECTION CROSSES.

THE TAFS WERE BASED ON SREF PROBABILITIES AND BUFKIT MOISTURE
PROFILE TIMING...AS THE NAM AND LAMP SEEM TO BE OVERLY PESSIMISTIC.

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BACK TO MVFR WILL OCCUR TOMORROW AS THE
DISTURBANCE EXITS.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH THE
APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 170127
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
927 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRY
START TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RAIN HAS GENERALLY MOVED EAST OF THE REGION...WITH
SHOWERS ACROSS OHIO OF AN ISOLATED/SCATTERED NATURE. HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING A LITTLE DRIER WITH RAIN
PASSING THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND HAVE DECIDED TO
TREND DOWN WITH POPS. HAVE NOT MADE MAJOR CHANGES TO POPS...AND
HAVE STILL GONE WITH 50 POPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 50S...WITH MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF
OHIO REMAINING RELATIVELY STEADY WITH TEMPERATURES.

FOR FRIDAY BOUNDARY WILL BE EXITING EAST TAKING LEFTOVER SHOWERS
WITH IT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BREAK OUT CLOUDS
FOR THE AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COOLING BEHIND FRONT
WITH MAX TEMPS MID 60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTH FROM CANADA WITH A WEAK
AND MOISTURE STARVED BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHING ACROSS REGION. HAVE
GONE BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS DESPITE SUNSHINE AS COOL
ADVECTION FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IS EXPECTED. DRY AND
SEASONAL SATURDAY NIGHT. NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AS A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION. LEAD
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION IN WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS STILL SHOWING A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL RETURN BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING UNDER A PASSING SHORTWAVE. A GRADUAL DETERIORATION TO MVFR
AND IFR CIGS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT MOST PORTS AS THE WEAK
SURFACE REFLECTION CROSSES.

THE TAFS WERE BASED ON SREF PROBABILITIES AND BUFKIT MOISTURE
PROFILE TIMING...AS THE NAM AND LAMP SEEM TO BE OVERLY PESSIMISTIC.

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BACK TO MVFR WILL OCCUR TOMORROW AS THE
DISTURBANCE EXITS.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH THE
APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 170127
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
927 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRY
START TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RAIN HAS GENERALLY MOVED EAST OF THE REGION...WITH
SHOWERS ACROSS OHIO OF AN ISOLATED/SCATTERED NATURE. HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING A LITTLE DRIER WITH RAIN
PASSING THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND HAVE DECIDED TO
TREND DOWN WITH POPS. HAVE NOT MADE MAJOR CHANGES TO POPS...AND
HAVE STILL GONE WITH 50 POPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 50S...WITH MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF
OHIO REMAINING RELATIVELY STEADY WITH TEMPERATURES.

FOR FRIDAY BOUNDARY WILL BE EXITING EAST TAKING LEFTOVER SHOWERS
WITH IT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BREAK OUT CLOUDS
FOR THE AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COOLING BEHIND FRONT
WITH MAX TEMPS MID 60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTH FROM CANADA WITH A WEAK
AND MOISTURE STARVED BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHING ACROSS REGION. HAVE
GONE BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS DESPITE SUNSHINE AS COOL
ADVECTION FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IS EXPECTED. DRY AND
SEASONAL SATURDAY NIGHT. NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AS A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION. LEAD
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION IN WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS STILL SHOWING A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL RETURN BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING UNDER A PASSING SHORTWAVE. A GRADUAL DETERIORATION TO MVFR
AND IFR CIGS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT MOST PORTS AS THE WEAK
SURFACE REFLECTION CROSSES.

THE TAFS WERE BASED ON SREF PROBABILITIES AND BUFKIT MOISTURE
PROFILE TIMING...AS THE NAM AND LAMP SEEM TO BE OVERLY PESSIMISTIC.

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BACK TO MVFR WILL OCCUR TOMORROW AS THE
DISTURBANCE EXITS.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH THE
APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 162149
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
549 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRY
START TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH 545PM UPDATE...BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS IS MOVING INTO WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA...WITH A BIT OF A LULL ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
OHIO. EXPECT THAT ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OHIO
AND MOVE EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT
LIKELY POPS IN ALL LOCATIONS DURING THE EVENING...WITH DIMINISHING
TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE AND DEVELOP NORTHEAST INTO THE EVENING. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING WILL KEEP SHOWER
CHANCES IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN TROUGH
BEGINS TO SHEAR OUT AND A WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS DEEP
MOISTURE IS TAKEN EAST OF THE RIDGES.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT MOVE MUCH FROM CURRENT READINGS
WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN.

FOR FRIDAY BOUNDARY WILL BE EXITING EAST TAKING LEFTOVER SHOWERS
WITH IT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BREAK OUT CLOUDS
FOR THE AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COOLING BEHIND FRONT
WITH MAX TEMPS MID 60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTH FROM CANADA WITH A WEAK
AND MOISTURE STARVED BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHING ACROSS REGION. HAVE
GONE BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS DESPITE SUNSHINE AS COOL
ADVECTION FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IS EXPECTED. DRY AND
SEASONAL SATURDAY NIGHT. NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AS A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION. LEAD
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION IN WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS STILL SHOWING A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL RETURN BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING UNDER A PASSING SHORTWAVE. A GRADUAL DETERIORATION TO MVFR
AND IFR CIGS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT MOST PORTS AS THE WEAK
SURFACE REFLECTION CROSSES.

THE TAFS WERE BASED ON SREF PROBABILITIES AND BUFKIT MOISTURE
PROFILE TIMING...AS THE NAM AND LAMP SEEM TO BE OVERLY PESSIMISTIC.

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BACK TO MVFR WILL OCCUR TOMORROW AS THE
DISTURBANCE EXITS.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH THE
APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 162149
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
549 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRY
START TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH 545PM UPDATE...BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS IS MOVING INTO WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA...WITH A BIT OF A LULL ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
OHIO. EXPECT THAT ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OHIO
AND MOVE EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT
LIKELY POPS IN ALL LOCATIONS DURING THE EVENING...WITH DIMINISHING
TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE AND DEVELOP NORTHEAST INTO THE EVENING. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING WILL KEEP SHOWER
CHANCES IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN TROUGH
BEGINS TO SHEAR OUT AND A WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS DEEP
MOISTURE IS TAKEN EAST OF THE RIDGES.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT MOVE MUCH FROM CURRENT READINGS
WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN.

FOR FRIDAY BOUNDARY WILL BE EXITING EAST TAKING LEFTOVER SHOWERS
WITH IT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BREAK OUT CLOUDS
FOR THE AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COOLING BEHIND FRONT
WITH MAX TEMPS MID 60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTH FROM CANADA WITH A WEAK
AND MOISTURE STARVED BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHING ACROSS REGION. HAVE
GONE BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS DESPITE SUNSHINE AS COOL
ADVECTION FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IS EXPECTED. DRY AND
SEASONAL SATURDAY NIGHT. NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AS A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION. LEAD
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION IN WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS STILL SHOWING A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL RETURN BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING UNDER A PASSING SHORTWAVE. A GRADUAL DETERIORATION TO MVFR
AND IFR CIGS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT MOST PORTS AS THE WEAK
SURFACE REFLECTION CROSSES.

THE TAFS WERE BASED ON SREF PROBABILITIES AND BUFKIT MOISTURE
PROFILE TIMING...AS THE NAM AND LAMP SEEM TO BE OVERLY PESSIMISTIC.

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BACK TO MVFR WILL OCCUR TOMORROW AS THE
DISTURBANCE EXITS.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH THE
APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 161920
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
320 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE AND DEVELOP NORTHEAST INTO THE EVENING. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING WILL KEEP SHOWER
CHANCES IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN TROUGH
BEGINS TO SHEAR OUT AND A WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS DEEP
MOISTURE IS TAKEN EAST OF THE RIDGES.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT MOVE MUCH FROM CURRENT READINGS
WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN.

FOR FRIDAY BOUNDARY WILL BE EXITING EAST TAKING LEFTOVER SHOWERS
WITH IT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BREAK OUT CLOUDS
FOR THE AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COOLING BEHIND FRONT
WITH MAX TEMPS MID 60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTH FROM CANADA WITH A WEAK
AND MOISTURE STARVED BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHING ACROSS REGION. HAVE
GONE BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS AS DESPITE SUNSHINE EXPECT COOL
ADVECTION ON NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. DRY AND SEASONAL SATURDAY
NIGHT. NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION. LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SHOWERS DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN
WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS STILL SHOWING A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL RETURN BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM WITH HELP FROM A PASSING
SHORTWAVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A GRADUAL
DETERIORATION TO MVFR AND IFR CIGS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT MOST
PORTS AS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES. TRIED TO FOLLOW THE
SREF PROBABILITIES AND BUFKIT MOISTURE PROFILES WITH TIMING OF
RESTRICTIONS...AS THE NAM AND LAMP SEEM TO BE A BUT MORE
PESSIMISTIC AT THIS TIME. WHILE VERY BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY MAY BE
EXPECTED IN THE MORE INTENSE SHOWERS...OPTED TO NOT CARRY THIS AT
ANY PARTICULAR SITE AND WILL COVER WITH TEMPOS AS NEEDED.

A ESE TO WSW WIND SHIFT IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT. GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT BACK TO MVFR WILL OCCUR TOMORROW.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH THE
APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 161920
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
320 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE AND DEVELOP NORTHEAST INTO THE EVENING. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING WILL KEEP SHOWER
CHANCES IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN TROUGH
BEGINS TO SHEAR OUT AND A WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS DEEP
MOISTURE IS TAKEN EAST OF THE RIDGES.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT MOVE MUCH FROM CURRENT READINGS
WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN.

FOR FRIDAY BOUNDARY WILL BE EXITING EAST TAKING LEFTOVER SHOWERS
WITH IT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BREAK OUT CLOUDS
FOR THE AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COOLING BEHIND FRONT
WITH MAX TEMPS MID 60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTH FROM CANADA WITH A WEAK
AND MOISTURE STARVED BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHING ACROSS REGION. HAVE
GONE BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS AS DESPITE SUNSHINE EXPECT COOL
ADVECTION ON NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. DRY AND SEASONAL SATURDAY
NIGHT. NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION. LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SHOWERS DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN
WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS STILL SHOWING A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL RETURN BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM WITH HELP FROM A PASSING
SHORTWAVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A GRADUAL
DETERIORATION TO MVFR AND IFR CIGS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT MOST
PORTS AS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES. TRIED TO FOLLOW THE
SREF PROBABILITIES AND BUFKIT MOISTURE PROFILES WITH TIMING OF
RESTRICTIONS...AS THE NAM AND LAMP SEEM TO BE A BUT MORE
PESSIMISTIC AT THIS TIME. WHILE VERY BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY MAY BE
EXPECTED IN THE MORE INTENSE SHOWERS...OPTED TO NOT CARRY THIS AT
ANY PARTICULAR SITE AND WILL COVER WITH TEMPOS AS NEEDED.

A ESE TO WSW WIND SHIFT IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT. GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT BACK TO MVFR WILL OCCUR TOMORROW.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH THE
APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 161817
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
217 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AREA OF SHOWERS HAS SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE AND DEVELOP NORTHEAST INTO THE EVENING. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL KEEP
SHOWER CHANCES IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN
UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SHEAR OUT AND A WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE IS TAKEN EAST OF THE RIDGES.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MOVE MUCH FROM CURRENT READINGS WHERE RAIN
HAS FALLEN. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT INTO THE 40S BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA...SO EXPECT THE
SHOWERS TO RAP UP IN THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING. NO REAL DISCERNIBLE
COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO
REBOUND BACK TO...IF NOT WARMER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

BROAD SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS STILL SHOWING A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL
RETURN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM WITH HELP FROM A PASSING
SHORTWAVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A GRADUAL
DETERIORATION TO MVFR AND IFR CIGS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT MOST
PORTS AS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES. TRIED TO FOLLOW THE
SREF PROBABILITIES AND BUFKIT MOISTURE PROFILES WITH TIMING OF
RESTRICTIONS...AS THE NAM AND LAMP SEEM TO BE A BUT MORE
PESSIMISTIC AT THIS TIME. WHILE VERY BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY MAY BE
EXPECTED IN THE MORE INTENSE SHOWERS...OPTED TO NOT CARRY THIS AT
ANY PARTICULAR SITE AND WILL COVER WITH TEMPOS AS NEEDED.

A ESE TO WSW WIND SHIFT IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT. GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT BACK TO MVFR WILL OCCUR TOMORROW.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH THE
APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 161817
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
217 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AREA OF SHOWERS HAS SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE AND DEVELOP NORTHEAST INTO THE EVENING. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL KEEP
SHOWER CHANCES IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN
UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SHEAR OUT AND A WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE IS TAKEN EAST OF THE RIDGES.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MOVE MUCH FROM CURRENT READINGS WHERE RAIN
HAS FALLEN. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT INTO THE 40S BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA...SO EXPECT THE
SHOWERS TO RAP UP IN THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING. NO REAL DISCERNIBLE
COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO
REBOUND BACK TO...IF NOT WARMER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

BROAD SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS STILL SHOWING A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL
RETURN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM WITH HELP FROM A PASSING
SHORTWAVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A GRADUAL
DETERIORATION TO MVFR AND IFR CIGS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT MOST
PORTS AS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES. TRIED TO FOLLOW THE
SREF PROBABILITIES AND BUFKIT MOISTURE PROFILES WITH TIMING OF
RESTRICTIONS...AS THE NAM AND LAMP SEEM TO BE A BUT MORE
PESSIMISTIC AT THIS TIME. WHILE VERY BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY MAY BE
EXPECTED IN THE MORE INTENSE SHOWERS...OPTED TO NOT CARRY THIS AT
ANY PARTICULAR SITE AND WILL COVER WITH TEMPOS AS NEEDED.

A ESE TO WSW WIND SHIFT IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT. GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT BACK TO MVFR WILL OCCUR TOMORROW.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH THE
APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 161817
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
217 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AREA OF SHOWERS HAS SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE AND DEVELOP NORTHEAST INTO THE EVENING. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL KEEP
SHOWER CHANCES IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN
UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SHEAR OUT AND A WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE IS TAKEN EAST OF THE RIDGES.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MOVE MUCH FROM CURRENT READINGS WHERE RAIN
HAS FALLEN. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT INTO THE 40S BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA...SO EXPECT THE
SHOWERS TO RAP UP IN THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING. NO REAL DISCERNIBLE
COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO
REBOUND BACK TO...IF NOT WARMER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

BROAD SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS STILL SHOWING A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL
RETURN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM WITH HELP FROM A PASSING
SHORTWAVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A GRADUAL
DETERIORATION TO MVFR AND IFR CIGS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT MOST
PORTS AS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES. TRIED TO FOLLOW THE
SREF PROBABILITIES AND BUFKIT MOISTURE PROFILES WITH TIMING OF
RESTRICTIONS...AS THE NAM AND LAMP SEEM TO BE A BUT MORE
PESSIMISTIC AT THIS TIME. WHILE VERY BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY MAY BE
EXPECTED IN THE MORE INTENSE SHOWERS...OPTED TO NOT CARRY THIS AT
ANY PARTICULAR SITE AND WILL COVER WITH TEMPOS AS NEEDED.

A ESE TO WSW WIND SHIFT IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT. GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT BACK TO MVFR WILL OCCUR TOMORROW.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH THE
APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 161817
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
217 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AREA OF SHOWERS HAS SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE AND DEVELOP NORTHEAST INTO THE EVENING. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL KEEP
SHOWER CHANCES IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN
UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SHEAR OUT AND A WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE IS TAKEN EAST OF THE RIDGES.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MOVE MUCH FROM CURRENT READINGS WHERE RAIN
HAS FALLEN. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT INTO THE 40S BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA...SO EXPECT THE
SHOWERS TO RAP UP IN THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING. NO REAL DISCERNIBLE
COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO
REBOUND BACK TO...IF NOT WARMER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

BROAD SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS STILL SHOWING A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL
RETURN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM WITH HELP FROM A PASSING
SHORTWAVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A GRADUAL
DETERIORATION TO MVFR AND IFR CIGS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT MOST
PORTS AS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES. TRIED TO FOLLOW THE
SREF PROBABILITIES AND BUFKIT MOISTURE PROFILES WITH TIMING OF
RESTRICTIONS...AS THE NAM AND LAMP SEEM TO BE A BUT MORE
PESSIMISTIC AT THIS TIME. WHILE VERY BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY MAY BE
EXPECTED IN THE MORE INTENSE SHOWERS...OPTED TO NOT CARRY THIS AT
ANY PARTICULAR SITE AND WILL COVER WITH TEMPOS AS NEEDED.

A ESE TO WSW WIND SHIFT IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT. GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT BACK TO MVFR WILL OCCUR TOMORROW.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH THE
APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 161724
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
124 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AREA OF SHOWERS HAS SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE AND DEVELOP NORTHEAST INTO THE EVENING. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL KEEP
SHOWER CHANCES IN THE LIKLEY CATAGORY UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN
UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SHEAR OUT AND A WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHES
FROM THE GREAT ALKES. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE IS TAKEN EAST OF THE RIDGES.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MOVE MUCH FROM CURRENT READINGS WHERE RAIN
HAS FALLEN. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT INTO THE 40S BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA...SO EXPECT THE
SHOWERS TO RAP UP IN THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING. NO REAL DISCERNIBLE
COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO
REBOUND BACK TO...IF NOT WARMER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

BROAD SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS STILL SHOWING A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL
RETURN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
INCREASING ESE TURNING SOUTH WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE VISIBLITY
RESTRICTIONS...HOWEVER CIGS WILL TREND AT LEAST CLOSE TO IFR BY
TONIGHT AS LOW LEVELS BECOME SATURATED.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL
RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH THE APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 161724
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
124 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AREA OF SHOWERS HAS SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE AND DEVELOP NORTHEAST INTO THE EVENING. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL KEEP
SHOWER CHANCES IN THE LIKLEY CATAGORY UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN
UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SHEAR OUT AND A WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHES
FROM THE GREAT ALKES. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE IS TAKEN EAST OF THE RIDGES.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MOVE MUCH FROM CURRENT READINGS WHERE RAIN
HAS FALLEN. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT INTO THE 40S BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA...SO EXPECT THE
SHOWERS TO RAP UP IN THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING. NO REAL DISCERNIBLE
COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO
REBOUND BACK TO...IF NOT WARMER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

BROAD SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS STILL SHOWING A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL
RETURN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
INCREASING ESE TURNING SOUTH WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE VISIBLITY
RESTRICTIONS...HOWEVER CIGS WILL TREND AT LEAST CLOSE TO IFR BY
TONIGHT AS LOW LEVELS BECOME SATURATED.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL
RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH THE APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 161420
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1020 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ONLY CHANGES WERE TO MAX TEMPS AND HOURLY TEMPS. WHERE SHOWERS
HAVE ARRIVED TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED OFF DUE TO WET
BULBING...WHILE AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF KPIT I-80 REMAIN WARMER
WITH SOME SUNSHINE.

PREVIOUS...
SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT REACHES THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THINK
A SLOWER APPROACH TO BEGINNING THE SHOWERS IS THE WAY TO GO AS THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE RUNNING INTO
A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW
SEASONABLE LEVELS. SHOWERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
 UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA...SO EXPECT THE
SHOWERS TO RAP UP IN THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING. NO REAL DISCERNIBLE
COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO
REBOUND BACK TO...IF NOT WARMER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

BROAD SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS STILL SHOWING A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL
RETURN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL VERY SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THEY ENCROACH ON THE REGION ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMES OF THE LOW
DETERIORATION OF CIGS...HOWEVER VIRGA SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN INTO
LIGHT RAIN AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS ENCROACH. INCREASING ESE TURNING
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE VISIBLITY RESTRICTIONS...HOWEVER CIGS
WILL TREND AT LEAST CLOSE TO IFR BY TONIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE
SLOWLY ENTERS THE REGION.FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH THE
APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 161420
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1020 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ONLY CHANGES WERE TO MAX TEMPS AND HOURLY TEMPS. WHERE SHOWERS
HAVE ARRIVED TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED OFF DUE TO WET
BULBING...WHILE AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF KPIT I-80 REMAIN WARMER
WITH SOME SUNSHINE.

PREVIOUS...
SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT REACHES THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THINK
A SLOWER APPROACH TO BEGINNING THE SHOWERS IS THE WAY TO GO AS THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE RUNNING INTO
A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW
SEASONABLE LEVELS. SHOWERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
 UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA...SO EXPECT THE
SHOWERS TO RAP UP IN THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING. NO REAL DISCERNIBLE
COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO
REBOUND BACK TO...IF NOT WARMER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

BROAD SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS STILL SHOWING A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL
RETURN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL VERY SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THEY ENCROACH ON THE REGION ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMES OF THE LOW
DETERIORATION OF CIGS...HOWEVER VIRGA SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN INTO
LIGHT RAIN AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS ENCROACH. INCREASING ESE TURNING
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE VISIBLITY RESTRICTIONS...HOWEVER CIGS
WILL TREND AT LEAST CLOSE TO IFR BY TONIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE
SLOWLY ENTERS THE REGION.FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH THE
APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 161152
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
752 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A DRY AND COMFORTABLE START
TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO EARLY MORNING UPDATE

PREVIOUS...
SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING AHEAD
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT REACHES THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THINK A SLOWER APPROACH TO BEGINNING THE SHOWERS IS THE WAY TO GO AS
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE RUNNING
INTO A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW
SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA...SO EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO RAP UP IN
THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING. NO REAL DISCERNIBLE COLD ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO REBOUND BACK TO...IF
NOT WARMER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

BROAD SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS STILL SHOWING A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL
RETURN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL VERY SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THEY ENCROACH ON THE REGION ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMES OF THE LOW
DETERIORATION OF CIGS...HOWEVER VIRGA SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN INTO
LIGHT RAIN AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS ENCROACH. INCREASING ESE TURNING
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE VISIBLITY RESTRICTIONS...HOWEVER CIGS
WILL TREND AT LEAST CLOSE TO IFR BY TONIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE
SLOWLY ENTERS THE REGION.FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH THE
APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 161152
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
752 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A DRY AND COMFORTABLE START
TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO EARLY MORNING UPDATE

PREVIOUS...
SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING AHEAD
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT REACHES THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THINK A SLOWER APPROACH TO BEGINNING THE SHOWERS IS THE WAY TO GO AS
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE RUNNING
INTO A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW
SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA...SO EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO RAP UP IN
THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING. NO REAL DISCERNIBLE COLD ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO REBOUND BACK TO...IF
NOT WARMER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

BROAD SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS STILL SHOWING A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL
RETURN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL VERY SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THEY ENCROACH ON THE REGION ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMES OF THE LOW
DETERIORATION OF CIGS...HOWEVER VIRGA SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN INTO
LIGHT RAIN AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS ENCROACH. INCREASING ESE TURNING
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE VISIBLITY RESTRICTIONS...HOWEVER CIGS
WILL TREND AT LEAST CLOSE TO IFR BY TONIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE
SLOWLY ENTERS THE REGION.FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH THE
APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 161020
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
620 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A DRY AND COMFORTABLE START
TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING AHEAD
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT REACHES THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
STILL SEEING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AS THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE RUNNING INTO
A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE. THINK A SLOWER APPROACH TO BEGINNING THE
SHOWERS IS THE WAY TO GO. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW
SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA...SO EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO RAP UP IN
THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING. NO REAL DISCERNIBLE COLD ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO REBOUND BACK TO...IF
NOT WARMER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

BROAD SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS STILL SHOWING A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL
RETURN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL VERY SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THEY ENCROACH ON THE REGION ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMES OF THE LOW
DETERIORATION OF CIGS...HOWEVER VIRGA SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN INTO
LIGHT RAIN AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS ENCROACH. INCREASING ESE TURNING
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE VISIBLITY RESTRICTIONS...HOWEVER CIGS
WILL TREND AT LEAST CLOSE TO IFR BY TONIGHT AS DEEPER MOSITURE
SLOWLY ENTERS THE REGION. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH THE
APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




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