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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211827
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
227 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS NOW
MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. ADDED LIKELY POPS TO THE
NORTH AS UPPER WAVE PASSES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS AMPLE CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS PITTSBURGH AND SOUTH. HENCE...OPTIMAL
DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT OCCUR IN THAT REGION...HOWEVER...INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL AID IN INSTABILITY YIELDING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TO THE NORTH...SUFFICIENT HEATING DUE TO LESS
CLOUDS HAVE RAMPED UP INSTABILITY. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS RELATIVELY
STRONGER SHEAR IN THIS ZONE AS WELL. THEREFORE...ISOLATED STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF
PITTSBURGH.

GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WANE LATER IN THE
EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. SOME SHOWERS MAY STILL LINGER
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE
BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION FROM A WEAKENING AND
EXITING UPPER LOW...AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SHIFT EAST ON
FRIDAY AS THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE. UNCERTAINTY STILL
EXISTS FOR ANY FLOODING AS MODELS ARE IN MINOR DISAGREEMENT FOR
THE PLACEMENT OF HEAVY RAIN. USED MODEL BLEND OF GFS/NAM FOR POPS
AND HPC FOR QPF.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A FEW SHORTWAVES TOPPING THE RIDGE
BRINGS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AT LEAST FOR
SATURDAY BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE SMALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MORE CLARITY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH THE LATEST ROUND
OF MODEL GUIDANCE. UPPER RIDGE BUILDING NORTH WILL WORK TO DEFLECT
AN ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN AT OR EVEN JUST ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER OUT IN TIME THAN USUAL...NO EFFECTS
ARE EXPECTED LOCALLY FROM ANYTHING THAT MAY DEVELOP IN THE TROPICS.
TAX/TG

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH STRATIFORM RAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IS EXPECTED TO
PRIMARILY AFFECT ZZV...HLG...AND MGW...SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AT THE REST OF TAF SITES. A SECONDARY AXIS OF PRECIPITATION
SEEMS TO BE DEVELOPING ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR...AND
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ADDED TO FKL/DUJ TAFS AS WELL. IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORM...BUT DID NOT WANT TO BLANKET
ALL SITES WITH THAT IN PREVAILING CONDITIONS. SHOWERS SHOULD
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH PREVAILING
PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AT MANY SOUTHERN
TERMINALS. ANY RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
PLACEMENT AND AMOUNT OF RAINFALL TODAY.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211827
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
227 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS NOW
MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. ADDED LIKELY POPS TO THE
NORTH AS UPPER WAVE PASSES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS AMPLE CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS PITTSBURGH AND SOUTH. HENCE...OPTIMAL
DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT OCCUR IN THAT REGION...HOWEVER...INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL AID IN INSTABILITY YIELDING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TO THE NORTH...SUFFICIENT HEATING DUE TO LESS
CLOUDS HAVE RAMPED UP INSTABILITY. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS RELATIVELY
STRONGER SHEAR IN THIS ZONE AS WELL. THEREFORE...ISOLATED STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF
PITTSBURGH.

GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WANE LATER IN THE
EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. SOME SHOWERS MAY STILL LINGER
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE
BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION FROM A WEAKENING AND
EXITING UPPER LOW...AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SHIFT EAST ON
FRIDAY AS THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE. UNCERTAINTY STILL
EXISTS FOR ANY FLOODING AS MODELS ARE IN MINOR DISAGREEMENT FOR
THE PLACEMENT OF HEAVY RAIN. USED MODEL BLEND OF GFS/NAM FOR POPS
AND HPC FOR QPF.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A FEW SHORTWAVES TOPPING THE RIDGE
BRINGS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AT LEAST FOR
SATURDAY BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE SMALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MORE CLARITY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH THE LATEST ROUND
OF MODEL GUIDANCE. UPPER RIDGE BUILDING NORTH WILL WORK TO DEFLECT
AN ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN AT OR EVEN JUST ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER OUT IN TIME THAN USUAL...NO EFFECTS
ARE EXPECTED LOCALLY FROM ANYTHING THAT MAY DEVELOP IN THE TROPICS.
TAX/TG

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH STRATIFORM RAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IS EXPECTED TO
PRIMARILY AFFECT ZZV...HLG...AND MGW...SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AT THE REST OF TAF SITES. A SECONDARY AXIS OF PRECIPITATION
SEEMS TO BE DEVELOPING ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR...AND
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ADDED TO FKL/DUJ TAFS AS WELL. IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORM...BUT DID NOT WANT TO BLANKET
ALL SITES WITH THAT IN PREVAILING CONDITIONS. SHOWERS SHOULD
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH PREVAILING
PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AT MANY SOUTHERN
TERMINALS. ANY RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
PLACEMENT AND AMOUNT OF RAINFALL TODAY.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211825
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
225 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS NOW
MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. ADDED LIKELY POPS TO THE
NORTH AS UPPER WAVE PASSES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS AMPLE CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS PITTSBURGH AND SOUTH. HENCE...OPTIMAL
DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT OCCUR IN THAT REGION...HOWEVER...INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL AID IN INSTABILITY YIELDING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TO THE NORTH...SUFFICIENT HEATING DUE TO LESS
CLOUDS HAVE RAMPED UP INSTABILITY. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS RELATIVELY
STRONGER SHEAR IN THIS ZONE AS WELL. THEREFORE...ISOLATED STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF
PITTSBURGH.

GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WANE LATER IN THE
EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. SOME SHOWERS MAY STILL LINGER
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE
BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION FROM A WEAKENING AND
EXITING UPPER LOW...AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SHIFT EAST ON
FRIDAY AS THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE. UNCERTAINTY STILL
EXISTS FOR ANY FLOODING AS MODELS ARE IN MINOR DISAGREEMENT FOR
THE PLACEMENT OF HEAVY RAIN. USED MODEL BLEND OF GFS/NAM FOR POPS
AND HPC FOR QPF.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A FEW SHORTWAVES TOPPING THE RIDGE
BRINGS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AT LEAST FOR
SATURDAY BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE SMALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MORE CLARITY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH THE LATEST ROUND
OF MODEL GUIDANCE. BY SUN THE SFC LOW FROM THE EARLY WEEKEND DEEPENS
OVER THE PIEDMONT OF VA/NC PULLING THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH WITH
IT. IN THE MEANTIME...THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY SETTING UP OVER THE
SRN MS VALLEY WILL BUILD NORTH FURTHER WITH ITS AXIS SHIFTING EAST
THROUGH SUN. THIS WILL WORK TO DEFLECT AN ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WELL NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN AT OR EVEN
JUST ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL LOOKING AT THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST OHIO THIS AFTERNOON...LESS TO THE NORTH.
KEPT PREVAILING SHRA AT ZZV/MGW AND HAVE ONLY VCTS MENTIONED TO
THE NORTH. IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORM. SHOULD SEE A DECREASE
IN COVERAGE WITH LOSS OF HEATING DURING THE EVENING. PUT IN MVFR
FOG AT SOME LOCATIONS LATE. WILL NEED TO WATCH EASTERN OHIO LATE
TONIGHT FOR POSSIBLE INTRUSION OF MCS. ZZV WOULD HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF BEING AFFECTED.


OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211825
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
225 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS NOW
MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. ADDED LIKELY POPS TO THE
NORTH AS UPPER WAVE PASSES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS AMPLE CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS PITTSBURGH AND SOUTH. HENCE...OPTIMAL
DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT OCCUR IN THAT REGION...HOWEVER...INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL AID IN INSTABILITY YIELDING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TO THE NORTH...SUFFICIENT HEATING DUE TO LESS
CLOUDS HAVE RAMPED UP INSTABILITY. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS RELATIVELY
STRONGER SHEAR IN THIS ZONE AS WELL. THEREFORE...ISOLATED STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF
PITTSBURGH.

GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WANE LATER IN THE
EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. SOME SHOWERS MAY STILL LINGER
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE
BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION FROM A WEAKENING AND
EXITING UPPER LOW...AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SHIFT EAST ON
FRIDAY AS THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE. UNCERTAINTY STILL
EXISTS FOR ANY FLOODING AS MODELS ARE IN MINOR DISAGREEMENT FOR
THE PLACEMENT OF HEAVY RAIN. USED MODEL BLEND OF GFS/NAM FOR POPS
AND HPC FOR QPF.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A FEW SHORTWAVES TOPPING THE RIDGE
BRINGS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AT LEAST FOR
SATURDAY BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE SMALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MORE CLARITY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH THE LATEST ROUND
OF MODEL GUIDANCE. BY SUN THE SFC LOW FROM THE EARLY WEEKEND DEEPENS
OVER THE PIEDMONT OF VA/NC PULLING THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH WITH
IT. IN THE MEANTIME...THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY SETTING UP OVER THE
SRN MS VALLEY WILL BUILD NORTH FURTHER WITH ITS AXIS SHIFTING EAST
THROUGH SUN. THIS WILL WORK TO DEFLECT AN ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WELL NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN AT OR EVEN
JUST ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL LOOKING AT THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST OHIO THIS AFTERNOON...LESS TO THE NORTH.
KEPT PREVAILING SHRA AT ZZV/MGW AND HAVE ONLY VCTS MENTIONED TO
THE NORTH. IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORM. SHOULD SEE A DECREASE
IN COVERAGE WITH LOSS OF HEATING DURING THE EVENING. PUT IN MVFR
FOG AT SOME LOCATIONS LATE. WILL NEED TO WATCH EASTERN OHIO LATE
TONIGHT FOR POSSIBLE INTRUSION OF MCS. ZZV WOULD HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF BEING AFFECTED.


OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211532
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1132 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS PROGGED
TO MOVE ESE FROM WESTERN OHIO. POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WERE MODIFIED BASED ON LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE AS INITIALIZATION
RANKED BEST FROM MODELS. ADDED LIKELY POPS TO THE NORTH AS UPPER
WAVE PASSES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO INCREASE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AMPLE CLOUD
COVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. HENCE...OPTIMAL DAYTIME HEATING
WILL NOT OCCUR...HOWEVER...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL AID IN
INSTABILITY YIELDING THUNDERSTORMS...BUT TO BELOW SEVERE STATUS AS
SHEAR AND CAPE REMAIN MARGINAL.

GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WANE LATER IN THE
EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. SOME SHOWERS MAY STILL LINGER
ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO THE NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY. NEXT
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECASTED TO OCCUR EARLY
MORNING FRIDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST EARLY FRI...ALLOWING COPIOUS DEEP
MOISTURE TO SHIFT FURTHER EAST REACHING THE WRN EDGE OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY DAYBREAK. A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY FRI...SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A RELATIVELY WEAK H7-H5 SW TROF.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OVERSPREAD A MAJORITY OF THE CWA BY
AFTERNOON. WIND PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS
WITH ROUGHLY 30KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR...HOWEVER...RESIDUAL CLOUD
COVER AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD ACT TO KEEP SFC TEMPS AND
ULTIMATELY INSTABILITY LIMITED.

EVEN WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL LIMITED...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ABLE TO TAP INTO A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WITH PWAT VALUES AT OR
JUST ABOVE 2"...VALUES APPROACHING 2SD ABOVE THE MEAN.
ADDITIONALLY...FREEZING LEVELS SHOULD BE NEARING 13KFT ALLOWING FOR
IMPRESSIVE WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS
COULD PRODUCE LOCAL WATER PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS
ALREADY SATURATED FROM TUES/WEDS RAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN THE HWO FRI.

TEMPS FRI WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF WAVE AND RESULTANT
CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS HOW FAR NORTHEAST THE WARM FRONT ADVANCES.
BECAUSE OF THESE FACTORS...LARGE SPREAD EXISTS ACROSS THE MOS
GUIDANCE. KNOCKED DOWN HIGH TEMPS FRI A DEGREE OR TWO...BUT TRIED TO
STAY CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV VALUES AS ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
COULD SHOOT TEMPERATURES QUICKLY UP UNDER THE STILL POTENT AUGUST
SUN.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MORE CLARITY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH THE LATEST ROUND
OF MODEL GUIDANCE. BY SUN THE SFC LOW FROM THE EARLY WEEKEND DEEPENS
OVER THE PIEDMONT OF VA/NC PULLING THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH WITH
IT. IN THE MEANTIME...THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY SETTING UP OVER THE
SRN MS VALLEY WILL BUILD NORTH FURTHER WITH ITS AXIS SHIFTING EAST
THROUGH SUN. THIS WILL WORK TO DEFLECT AN ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WELL NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN AT OR EVEN
JUST ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL LOOKING AT THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST OHIO THIS AFTERNOON...LESS TO THE NORTH.
KEPT PREVAILING SHRA AT ZZV/MGW AND HAVE ONLY VCTS MENTIONED TO
THE NORTH. IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORM. SHOULD SEE A DECREASE
IN COVERAGE WITH LOSS OF HEATING DURING THE EVENING. PUT IN MVFR
FOG AT SOME LOCATIONS LATE. WILL NEED TO WATCH EASTERN OHIO LATE
TONIGHT FOR POSSIBLE INTRUSION OF MCS. ZZV WOULD HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF BEING AFFECTED.


OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211147
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
747 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
800 AM UPDATE...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO POPS THIS MORNING BASED ON
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND CONVECTION APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND THE CWA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT WILL GET A SLIGHT NORTHWARD PUSH LATER IN THIS
PERIOD.  DEEPER MOISTURE MAKES A RUN BACK TO THE EAST...WITH THE 1.5
INCH PWAT LINE GETTING CLOSE TO PIT THIS AFTERNOON.  EXPECT SOME
POCKETS OF UP TO 2500 J/KG OF CAPE TO DEVELOP...WHICH WILL ONCE
AGAIN ALLOW FOR DIURNAL STORM DEVELOPMENT.  0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF
30-40 KNOTS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH ORGANIZATION WILL REMAIN LOW.
EXPECTING HIGHER COVERAGE ALONG/SOUTH OF BOUNDARY WITH THE JUICIER
AIRMASS...AND HAVE THE LIKELY POPS TARGETED IN THIS AREA.  CHANCE
POPS ARE FORECAST IN THE FKL/DUJ FAR NORTHERN REGION.

DESPITE ALL THIS...AM NOT SOLD ENOUGH ON THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINFALL/FLOODING TO HOIST ANY FLOOD WATCHES.  BEST ORGANIZATION AND
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL LIE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...WHERE
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG WITH H250 UPPER DIVERGENCE IN RRQ OF MODEST
JET WILL ALLOW FOR ENHANCED LIFT...NOT TO MENTION THE 2 INCH PLUS
PWAT VALUES.  THINK THE WET AREAS IN EASTERN OHIO WILL BE ABLE TO
ESCAPE ANY FURTHER IMPACTS TODAY.

TONIGHT...ACTIVITY WILL DIURNALLY DECREASE AND CLOUDS WILL BREAK
SOMEWHAT.  CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER ANYWHERE OVERNIGHT THOUGH GIVEN
THE AIRMASS AND FRONT.  THERE ARE HINTS IN THE MODELS THAT SOME SORT
OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/MCS MAY ATTEMPT TO FORM AND RIDE THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY.  AGAIN...EXPECT THIS TO BE MAINLY OFF TO THE
SOUTHWEST...BUT COULD SEE THE ZZV VICINITY GET CLIPPED AROUND 12Z.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST EARLY FRI...ALLOWING COPIOUS DEEP
MOISTURE TO SHIFT FURTHER EAST REACHING THE WRN EDGE OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY DAYBREAK. A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY FRI...SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A RELATIVELY WEAK H7-H5 SW TROF.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OVERSPREAD A MAJORITY OF THE CWA BY
AFTERNOON. WIND PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS
WITH ROUGHLY 30KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR...HOWEVER...RESIDUAL CLOUD
COVER AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD ACT TO KEEP SFC TEMPS AND
ULTIMATELY INSTABILITY LIMITED.

EVEN WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL LIMITED...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ABLE TO TAP INTO A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WITH PWAT VALUES AT OR
JUST ABOVE 2"...VALUES APPROACHING 2SD ABOVE THE MEAN.
ADDITIONALLY...FREEZING LEVELS SHOULD BE NEARING 13KFT ALLOWING FOR
IMPRESSIVE WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS
COULD PRODUCE LOCAL WATER PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS
ALREADY SATURATED FROM TUES/WEDS RAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN THE HWO FRI.

TEMPS FRI WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF WAVE AND RESULTANT
CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS HOW FAR NORTHEAST THE WARM FRONT ADVANCES.
BECAUSE OF THESE FACTORS...LARGE SPREAD EXISTS ACROSS THE MOS
GUIDANCE. KNOCKED DOWN HIGH TEMPS FRI A DEGREE OR TWO...BUT TRIED TO
STAY CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV VALUES AS ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
COULD SHOOT TEMPERATURES QUICKLY UP UNDER THE STILL POTENT AUGUST
SUN.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MORE CLARITY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH THE LATEST ROUND
OF MODEL GUIDANCE. BY SUN THE SFC LOW FROM THE EARLY WEEKEND DEEPENS
OVER THE PIEDMONT OF VA/NC PULLING THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH WITH
IT. IN THE MEANTIME...THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY SETTING UP OVER THE
SRN MS VALLEY WILL BUILD NORTH FURTHER WITH ITS AXIS SHIFTING EAST
THROUGH SUN. THIS WILL WORK TO DEFLECT AN ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WELL NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN AT OR EVEN
JUST ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FEW ISOLATED SHRA CONTINUED OVERNIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS ARE VFR
OUTSIDE OF FKL/DUJ. BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINED A LITTLE MORE MIXED
THAN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN LESS FOG.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE BALANCE OF THE MORNING ONCE
WHATEVER FOG THERE IS LIFTS. STILL LOOKING AT THE BEST PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST OHIO THIS
AFTERNOON...LESS TO THE NORTH. KEPT PREVAILING SHRA AT ZZV/MGW AND
HAVE ONLY VCTS MENTIONED TO THE NORTH.  IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORM.
SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN COVERAGE WITH LOSS OF HEATING DURING THE
EVENING. PUT IN MVFR FOG AT SOME LOCATIONS LATE.  WILL NEED TO
WATCH EASTERN OHIO LATE TONIGHT FOR POSSIBLE INTRUSION OF MCS. ZZV
WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF BEING AFFECTED.


OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211147
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
747 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
800 AM UPDATE...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO POPS THIS MORNING BASED ON
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND CONVECTION APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND THE CWA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT WILL GET A SLIGHT NORTHWARD PUSH LATER IN THIS
PERIOD.  DEEPER MOISTURE MAKES A RUN BACK TO THE EAST...WITH THE 1.5
INCH PWAT LINE GETTING CLOSE TO PIT THIS AFTERNOON.  EXPECT SOME
POCKETS OF UP TO 2500 J/KG OF CAPE TO DEVELOP...WHICH WILL ONCE
AGAIN ALLOW FOR DIURNAL STORM DEVELOPMENT.  0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF
30-40 KNOTS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH ORGANIZATION WILL REMAIN LOW.
EXPECTING HIGHER COVERAGE ALONG/SOUTH OF BOUNDARY WITH THE JUICIER
AIRMASS...AND HAVE THE LIKELY POPS TARGETED IN THIS AREA.  CHANCE
POPS ARE FORECAST IN THE FKL/DUJ FAR NORTHERN REGION.

DESPITE ALL THIS...AM NOT SOLD ENOUGH ON THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINFALL/FLOODING TO HOIST ANY FLOOD WATCHES.  BEST ORGANIZATION AND
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL LIE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...WHERE
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG WITH H250 UPPER DIVERGENCE IN RRQ OF MODEST
JET WILL ALLOW FOR ENHANCED LIFT...NOT TO MENTION THE 2 INCH PLUS
PWAT VALUES.  THINK THE WET AREAS IN EASTERN OHIO WILL BE ABLE TO
ESCAPE ANY FURTHER IMPACTS TODAY.

TONIGHT...ACTIVITY WILL DIURNALLY DECREASE AND CLOUDS WILL BREAK
SOMEWHAT.  CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER ANYWHERE OVERNIGHT THOUGH GIVEN
THE AIRMASS AND FRONT.  THERE ARE HINTS IN THE MODELS THAT SOME SORT
OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/MCS MAY ATTEMPT TO FORM AND RIDE THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY.  AGAIN...EXPECT THIS TO BE MAINLY OFF TO THE
SOUTHWEST...BUT COULD SEE THE ZZV VICINITY GET CLIPPED AROUND 12Z.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST EARLY FRI...ALLOWING COPIOUS DEEP
MOISTURE TO SHIFT FURTHER EAST REACHING THE WRN EDGE OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY DAYBREAK. A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY FRI...SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A RELATIVELY WEAK H7-H5 SW TROF.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OVERSPREAD A MAJORITY OF THE CWA BY
AFTERNOON. WIND PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS
WITH ROUGHLY 30KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR...HOWEVER...RESIDUAL CLOUD
COVER AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD ACT TO KEEP SFC TEMPS AND
ULTIMATELY INSTABILITY LIMITED.

EVEN WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL LIMITED...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ABLE TO TAP INTO A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WITH PWAT VALUES AT OR
JUST ABOVE 2"...VALUES APPROACHING 2SD ABOVE THE MEAN.
ADDITIONALLY...FREEZING LEVELS SHOULD BE NEARING 13KFT ALLOWING FOR
IMPRESSIVE WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS
COULD PRODUCE LOCAL WATER PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS
ALREADY SATURATED FROM TUES/WEDS RAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN THE HWO FRI.

TEMPS FRI WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF WAVE AND RESULTANT
CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS HOW FAR NORTHEAST THE WARM FRONT ADVANCES.
BECAUSE OF THESE FACTORS...LARGE SPREAD EXISTS ACROSS THE MOS
GUIDANCE. KNOCKED DOWN HIGH TEMPS FRI A DEGREE OR TWO...BUT TRIED TO
STAY CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV VALUES AS ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
COULD SHOOT TEMPERATURES QUICKLY UP UNDER THE STILL POTENT AUGUST
SUN.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MORE CLARITY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH THE LATEST ROUND
OF MODEL GUIDANCE. BY SUN THE SFC LOW FROM THE EARLY WEEKEND DEEPENS
OVER THE PIEDMONT OF VA/NC PULLING THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH WITH
IT. IN THE MEANTIME...THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY SETTING UP OVER THE
SRN MS VALLEY WILL BUILD NORTH FURTHER WITH ITS AXIS SHIFTING EAST
THROUGH SUN. THIS WILL WORK TO DEFLECT AN ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WELL NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN AT OR EVEN
JUST ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FEW ISOLATED SHRA CONTINUED OVERNIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS ARE VFR
OUTSIDE OF FKL/DUJ. BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINED A LITTLE MORE MIXED
THAN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN LESS FOG.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE BALANCE OF THE MORNING ONCE
WHATEVER FOG THERE IS LIFTS. STILL LOOKING AT THE BEST PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST OHIO THIS
AFTERNOON...LESS TO THE NORTH. KEPT PREVAILING SHRA AT ZZV/MGW AND
HAVE ONLY VCTS MENTIONED TO THE NORTH.  IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORM.
SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN COVERAGE WITH LOSS OF HEATING DURING THE
EVENING. PUT IN MVFR FOG AT SOME LOCATIONS LATE.  WILL NEED TO
WATCH EASTERN OHIO LATE TONIGHT FOR POSSIBLE INTRUSION OF MCS. ZZV
WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF BEING AFFECTED.


OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211031
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
631 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...STILL A COUPLE OF STUBBORN SHOWERS IN FAYETTE
COUNTY TO DEAL WITH. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT UPSTREAM ACTIVITY IN
IN/OH THAT MAY GET INTO CWA PRIOR TO NOON. AREA OF AC IN OHIO
NECESSITATED UPDATING THE SKY GRIDS AS WELL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

ISOLATED SHRA FINALLY EXITING THE EASTERN CWA BORDER ALONG WITH VORT
MAX.  FOG BEING HELD IN CHECK A BIT BY MIXING AT THE TOP OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER.  STILL THINK PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS...GIVEN THE WET GROUND AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND THE CWA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT WILL GET A SLIGHT NORTHWARD PUSH LATER IN THIS
PERIOD.  DEEPER MOISTURE MAKES A RUN BACK TO THE EAST...WITH THE 1.5
INCH PWAT LINE GETTING CLOSE TO PIT THIS AFTERNOON.  EXPECT SOME
POCKETS OF UP TO 2500 J/KG OF CAPE TO DEVELOP...WHICH WILL ONCE
AGAIN ALLOW FOR DIURNAL STORM DEVELOPMENT.  0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF
30-40 KNOTS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH ORGANIZATION WILL REMAIN LOW.
EXPECTING HIGHER COVERAGE ALONG/SOUTH OF BOUNDARY WITH THE JUICIER
AIRMASS...AND HAVE THE LIKELY POPS TARGETED IN THIS AREA.  CHANCE
POPS ARE FORECAST IN THE FKL/DUJ FAR NORTHERN REGION.

DESPITE ALL THIS...AM NOT SOLD ENOUGH ON THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINFALL/FLOODING TO HOIST ANY FLOOD WATCHES.  BEST ORGANIZATION AND
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL LIE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...WHERE
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG WITH H250 UPPER DIVERGENCE IN RRQ OF MODEST
JET WILL ALLOW FOR ENHANCED LIFT...NOT TO MENTION THE 2 INCH PLUS
PWAT VALUES.  THINK THE WET AREAS IN EASTERN OHIO WILL BE ABLE TO
ESCAPE ANY FURTHER IMPACTS TODAY.

TONIGHT...ACTIVITY WILL DIURNALLY DECREASE AND CLOUDS WILL BREAK
SOMEWHAT.  CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER ANYWHERE OVERNIGHT THOUGH GIVEN
THE AIRMASS AND FRONT.  THERE ARE HINTS IN THE MODELS THAT SOME SORT
OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/MCS MAY ATTEMPT TO FORM AND RIDE THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY.  AGAIN...EXPECT THIS TO BE MAINLY OFF TO THE
SOUTHWEST...BUT COULD SEE THE ZZV VICINITY GET CLIPPED AROUND 12Z.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST EARLY FRI...ALLOWING COPIOUS DEEP
MOISTURE TO SHIFT FURTHER EAST REACHING THE WRN EDGE OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY DAYBREAK. A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY FRI...SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A RELATIVELY WEAK H7-H5 SW TROF.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OVERSPREAD A MAJORITY OF THE CWA BY
AFTERNOON. WIND PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS
WITH ROUGHLY 30KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR...HOWEVER...RESIDUAL CLOUD
COVER AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD ACT TO KEEP SFC TEMPS AND
ULTIMATELY INSTABILITY LIMITED.

EVEN WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL LIMITED...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ABLE TO TAP INTO A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WITH PWAT VALUES AT OR
JUST ABOVE 2"...VALUES APPROACHING 2SD ABOVE THE MEAN.
ADDITIONALLY...FREEZING LEVELS SHOULD BE NEARING 13KFT ALLOWING FOR
IMPRESSIVE WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS
COULD PRODUCE LOCAL WATER PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS
ALREADY SATURATED FROM TUES/WEDS RAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN THE HWO FRI.

TEMPS FRI WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF WAVE AND RESULTANT
CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS HOW FAR NORTHEAST THE WARM FRONT ADVANCES.
BECAUSE OF THESE FACTORS...LARGE SPREAD EXISTS ACROSS THE MOS
GUIDANCE. KNOCKED DOWN HIGH TEMPS FRI A DEGREE OR TWO...BUT TRIED TO
STAY CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV VALUES AS ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
COULD SHOOT TEMPERATURES QUICKLY UP UNDER THE STILL POTENT AUGUST
SUN.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MORE CLARITY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH THE LATEST ROUND
OF MODEL GUIDANCE. BY SUN THE SFC LOW FROM THE EARLY WEEKEND DEEPENS
OVER THE PIEDMONT OF VA/NC PULLING THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH WITH
IT. IN THE MEANTIME...THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY SETTING UP OVER THE
SRN MS VALLEY WILL BUILD NORTH FURTHER WITH ITS AXIS SHIFTING EAST
THROUGH SUN. THIS WILL WORK TO DEFLECT AN ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WELL NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN AT OR EVEN
JUST ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FEW ISOLATED SHRA CONTINUED OVERNIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS ARE VFR
OUTSIDE OF FKL/DUJ. BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINED A LITTLE MORE MIXED
THAN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN LESS FOG.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE BALANCE OF THE MORNING ONCE
WHATEVER FOG THERE IS LIFTS. STILL LOOKING AT THE BEST PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST OHIO THIS
AFTERNOON...LESS TO THE NORTH. KEPT PREVAILING SHRA AT ZZV/MGW AND
HAVE ONLY VCTS MENTIONED TO THE NORTH.  IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORM.
SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN COVERAGE WITH LOSS OF HEATING DURING THE
EVENING. PUT IN MVFR FOG AT SOME LOCATIONS LATE.  WILL NEED TO
WATCH EASTERN OHIO LATE TONIGHT FOR POSSIBLE INTRUSION OF MCS. ZZV
WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF BEING AFFECTED.


OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211031
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
631 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...STILL A COUPLE OF STUBBORN SHOWERS IN FAYETTE
COUNTY TO DEAL WITH. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT UPSTREAM ACTIVITY IN
IN/OH THAT MAY GET INTO CWA PRIOR TO NOON. AREA OF AC IN OHIO
NECESSITATED UPDATING THE SKY GRIDS AS WELL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

ISOLATED SHRA FINALLY EXITING THE EASTERN CWA BORDER ALONG WITH VORT
MAX.  FOG BEING HELD IN CHECK A BIT BY MIXING AT THE TOP OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER.  STILL THINK PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS...GIVEN THE WET GROUND AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND THE CWA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT WILL GET A SLIGHT NORTHWARD PUSH LATER IN THIS
PERIOD.  DEEPER MOISTURE MAKES A RUN BACK TO THE EAST...WITH THE 1.5
INCH PWAT LINE GETTING CLOSE TO PIT THIS AFTERNOON.  EXPECT SOME
POCKETS OF UP TO 2500 J/KG OF CAPE TO DEVELOP...WHICH WILL ONCE
AGAIN ALLOW FOR DIURNAL STORM DEVELOPMENT.  0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF
30-40 KNOTS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH ORGANIZATION WILL REMAIN LOW.
EXPECTING HIGHER COVERAGE ALONG/SOUTH OF BOUNDARY WITH THE JUICIER
AIRMASS...AND HAVE THE LIKELY POPS TARGETED IN THIS AREA.  CHANCE
POPS ARE FORECAST IN THE FKL/DUJ FAR NORTHERN REGION.

DESPITE ALL THIS...AM NOT SOLD ENOUGH ON THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINFALL/FLOODING TO HOIST ANY FLOOD WATCHES.  BEST ORGANIZATION AND
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL LIE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...WHERE
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG WITH H250 UPPER DIVERGENCE IN RRQ OF MODEST
JET WILL ALLOW FOR ENHANCED LIFT...NOT TO MENTION THE 2 INCH PLUS
PWAT VALUES.  THINK THE WET AREAS IN EASTERN OHIO WILL BE ABLE TO
ESCAPE ANY FURTHER IMPACTS TODAY.

TONIGHT...ACTIVITY WILL DIURNALLY DECREASE AND CLOUDS WILL BREAK
SOMEWHAT.  CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER ANYWHERE OVERNIGHT THOUGH GIVEN
THE AIRMASS AND FRONT.  THERE ARE HINTS IN THE MODELS THAT SOME SORT
OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/MCS MAY ATTEMPT TO FORM AND RIDE THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY.  AGAIN...EXPECT THIS TO BE MAINLY OFF TO THE
SOUTHWEST...BUT COULD SEE THE ZZV VICINITY GET CLIPPED AROUND 12Z.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST EARLY FRI...ALLOWING COPIOUS DEEP
MOISTURE TO SHIFT FURTHER EAST REACHING THE WRN EDGE OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY DAYBREAK. A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY FRI...SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A RELATIVELY WEAK H7-H5 SW TROF.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OVERSPREAD A MAJORITY OF THE CWA BY
AFTERNOON. WIND PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS
WITH ROUGHLY 30KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR...HOWEVER...RESIDUAL CLOUD
COVER AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD ACT TO KEEP SFC TEMPS AND
ULTIMATELY INSTABILITY LIMITED.

EVEN WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL LIMITED...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ABLE TO TAP INTO A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WITH PWAT VALUES AT OR
JUST ABOVE 2"...VALUES APPROACHING 2SD ABOVE THE MEAN.
ADDITIONALLY...FREEZING LEVELS SHOULD BE NEARING 13KFT ALLOWING FOR
IMPRESSIVE WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS
COULD PRODUCE LOCAL WATER PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS
ALREADY SATURATED FROM TUES/WEDS RAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN THE HWO FRI.

TEMPS FRI WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF WAVE AND RESULTANT
CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS HOW FAR NORTHEAST THE WARM FRONT ADVANCES.
BECAUSE OF THESE FACTORS...LARGE SPREAD EXISTS ACROSS THE MOS
GUIDANCE. KNOCKED DOWN HIGH TEMPS FRI A DEGREE OR TWO...BUT TRIED TO
STAY CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV VALUES AS ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
COULD SHOOT TEMPERATURES QUICKLY UP UNDER THE STILL POTENT AUGUST
SUN.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MORE CLARITY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH THE LATEST ROUND
OF MODEL GUIDANCE. BY SUN THE SFC LOW FROM THE EARLY WEEKEND DEEPENS
OVER THE PIEDMONT OF VA/NC PULLING THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH WITH
IT. IN THE MEANTIME...THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY SETTING UP OVER THE
SRN MS VALLEY WILL BUILD NORTH FURTHER WITH ITS AXIS SHIFTING EAST
THROUGH SUN. THIS WILL WORK TO DEFLECT AN ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WELL NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN AT OR EVEN
JUST ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FEW ISOLATED SHRA CONTINUED OVERNIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS ARE VFR
OUTSIDE OF FKL/DUJ. BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINED A LITTLE MORE MIXED
THAN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN LESS FOG.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE BALANCE OF THE MORNING ONCE
WHATEVER FOG THERE IS LIFTS. STILL LOOKING AT THE BEST PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST OHIO THIS
AFTERNOON...LESS TO THE NORTH. KEPT PREVAILING SHRA AT ZZV/MGW AND
HAVE ONLY VCTS MENTIONED TO THE NORTH.  IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORM.
SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN COVERAGE WITH LOSS OF HEATING DURING THE
EVENING. PUT IN MVFR FOG AT SOME LOCATIONS LATE.  WILL NEED TO
WATCH EASTERN OHIO LATE TONIGHT FOR POSSIBLE INTRUSION OF MCS. ZZV
WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF BEING AFFECTED.


OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210843
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
443 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ISOLATED SHRA FINALLY EXITING THE EASTERN CWA BORDER ALONG WITH VORT
MAX.  FOG BEING HELD IN CHECK A BIT BY MIXING AT THE TOP OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER.  STILL THINK PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS...GIVEN THE WET GROUND AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND THE CWA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT WILL GET A SLIGHT NORTHWARD PUSH LATER IN THIS
PERIOD.  DEEPER MOISTURE MAKES A RUN BACK TO THE EAST...WITH THE 1.5
INCH PWAT LINE GETTING CLOSE TO PIT THIS AFTERNOON.  EXPECT SOME
POCKETS OF UP TO 2500 J/KG OF CAPE TO DEVELOP...WHICH WILL ONCE
AGAIN ALLOW FOR DIURNAL STORM DEVELOPMENT.  0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF
30-40 KNOTS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH ORGANIZATION WILL REMAIN LOW.
EXPECTING HIGHER COVERAGE ALONG/SOUTH OF BOUNDARY WITH THE JUICIER
AIRMASS...AND HAVE THE LIKELY POPS TARGETED IN THIS AREA.  CHANCE
POPS ARE FORECAST IN THE FKL/DUJ FAR NORTHERN REGION.

DESPITE ALL THIS...AM NOT SOLD ENOUGH ON THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINFALL/FLOODING TO HOIST ANY FLOOD WATCHES.  BEST ORGANIZATION AND
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL LIE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...WHERE
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG WITH H250 UPPER DIVERGENCE IN RRQ OF MODEST
JET WILL ALLOW FOR ENHANCED LIFT...NOT TO MENTION THE 2 INCH PLUS
PWAT VALUES.  THINK THE WET AREAS IN EASTERN OHIO WILL BE ABLE TO
ESCAPE ANY FURTHER IMPACTS TODAY.

TONIGHT...ACTIVITY WILL DIURNALLY DECREASE AND CLOUDS WILL BREAK
SOMEWHAT.  CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER ANYWHERE OVERNIGHT THOUGH GIVEN
THE AIRMASS AND FRONT.  THERE ARE HINTS IN THE MODELS THAT SOME SORT
OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/MCS MAY ATTEMPT TO FORM AND RIDE THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY.  AGAIN...EXPECT THIS TO BE MAINLY OFF TO THE
SOUTHWEST...BUT COULD SEE THE ZZV VICINITY GET CLIPPED AROUND 12Z.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST EARLY FRI...ALLOWING COPIOUS DEEP
MOISTURE TO SHIFT FURTHER EAST REACHING THE WRN EDGE OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY DAYBREAK. A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY FRI...SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A RELATIVELY WEAK H7-H5 SW TROF.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OVERSPREAD A MAJORITY OF THE CWA BY
AFTERNOON. WIND PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS
WITH ROUGHLY 30KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR...HOWEVER...RESIDUAL CLOUD
COVER AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD ACT TO KEEP SFC TEMPS AND
ULTIMATELY INSTABILITY LIMITED.

EVEN WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL LIMITED...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ABLE TO TAP INTO A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WITH PWAT VALUES AT OR
JUST ABOVE 2"...VALUES APPROACHING 2SD ABOVE THE MEAN.
ADDITIONALLY...FREEZING LEVELS SHOULD BE NEARING 13KFT ALLOWING FOR
IMPRESSIVE WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS
COULD PRODUCE LOCAL WATER PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS
ALREADY SATURATED FROM TUES/WEDS RAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN THE HWO FRI.

TEMPS FRI WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF WAVE AND RESULTANT
CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS HOW FAR NORTHEAST THE WARM FRONT ADVANCES.
BECAUSE OF THESE FACTORS...LARGE SPREAD EXISTS ACROSS THE MOS
GUIDANCE. KNOCKED DOWN HIGH TEMPS FRI A DEGREE OR TWO...BUT TRIED TO
STAY CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV VALUES AS ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
COULD SHOOT TEMPERATURES QUICKLY UP UNDER THE STILL POTENT AUGUST
SUN.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MORE CLARITY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH THE LATEST ROUND
OF MODEL GUIDANCE. BY SUN THE SFC LOW FROM THE EARLY WEEKEND DEEPENS
OVER THE PIEDMONT OF VA/NC PULLING THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH WITH
IT. IN THE MEANTIME...THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY SETTING UP OVER THE
SRN MS VALLEY WILL BUILD NORTH FURTHER WITH ITS AXIS SHIFTING EAST
THROUGH SUN. THIS WILL WORK TO DEFLECT AN ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WELL NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN AT OR EVEN
JUST ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE EXITED...WITH QUIET WEATHER OVERNIGHT.
CLEARING WILL ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP OVER THE WET GROUND. RIVER
VALLEYS WILL GET THE THICKEST FOG...ALTHOUGH ALL TERMINALS SHOULD
SEE IT TO SOME DEGREE.

FOG LIFTS BY 14Z...WITH VFR CU DEVELOPING. BEST PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST OHIO THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THUS PREVAILING SHRA WERE INCLUDED AT ZZV AND MGW
FOR A PERIOD. VCTS TO THE NORTH OF THERE...WHILE FKL/DUJ HAVE THE
LEAST CHANCE OF GETTING WET. ANY TSRA WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF IFR
OF COURSE. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE DOWN AGAIN BY THE LATE EVENING
HOURS.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210758
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
358 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ISOLATED SHRA FINALLY EXITING THE EASTERN CWA BORDER ALONG WITH VORT
MAX.  FOG BEING HELD IN CHECK A BIT BY MIXING AT THE TOP OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER.  STILL THINK PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS...GIVEN THE WET GROUND AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND THE CWA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT WILL GET A SLIGHT NORTHWARD PUSH LATER IN THIS
PERIOD.  DEEPER MOISTURE MAKES A RUN BACK TO THE EAST...WITH THE 1.5
INCH PWAT LINE GETTING CLOSE TO PIT THIS AFTERNOON.  EXPECT SOME
POCKETS OF UP TO 2500 J/KG OF CAPE TO DEVELOP...WHICH WILL ONCE
AGAIN ALLOW FOR DIURNAL STORM DEVELOPMENT.  0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF
30-40 KNOTS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH ORGANIZATION WILL REMAIN LOW.
EXPECTING HIGHER COVERAGE ALONG/SOUTH OF BOUNDARY WITH THE JUICIER
AIRMASS...AND HAVE THE LIKELY POPS TARGETED IN THIS AREA.  CHANCE
POPS ARE FORECAST IN THE FKL/DUJ FAR NORTHERN REGION.

DESPITE ALL THIS...AM NOT SOLD ENOUGH ON THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINFALL/FLOODING TO HOIST ANY FLOOD WATCHES.  BEST ORGANIZATION AND
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL LIE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...WHERE
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG WITH H250 UPPER DIVERGENCE IN RRQ OF MODEST
JET WILL ALLOW FOR ENHANCED LIFT...NOT TO MENTION THE 2 INCH PLUS
PWAT VALUES.  THINK THE WET AREAS IN EASTERN OHIO WILL BE ABLE TO
ESCAPE ANY FURTHER IMPACTS TODAY.

TONIGHT...ACTIVITY WILL DIURNALLY DECREASE AND CLOUDS WILL BREAK
SOMEWHAT.  CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER ANYWHERE OVERNIGHT THOUGH GIVEN
THE AIRMASS AND FRONT.  THERE ARE HINTS IN THE MODELS THAT SOME SORT
OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/MCS MAY ATTEMPT TO FORM AND RIDE THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY.  AGAIN...EXPECT THIS TO BE MAINLY OFF TO THE
SOUTHWEST...BUT COULD SEE THE ZZV VICINITY GET CLIPPED AROUND 12Z.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AS
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH AND A QUASI-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE. MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE
FLOODING AS PWATS WILL QUICKLY SHOOT UP TO OVER TWO STANDARD DEVS
ABOVE NORMAL AFTER THE BRIEF DECREASE TODAY. HOWEVER...BULK SHEAR
WILL ALSO BE AROUND 30-40KTS SO SEVERAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD
WATCHES FOR NOW AS THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF
THE MOST FAVORABLE DYNAMICS BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM...GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDING WITH WPC THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE SRN
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SLOWLY SHIFTING THE AXIS INTO OUR
REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY
WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES AS WE SIT ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
A GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE UPPER TROF AXIS WOULD MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A DRYING TREND.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE EXITED...WITH QUIET WEATHER OVERNIGHT.
CLEARING WILL ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP OVER THE WET GROUND. RIVER
VALLEYS WILL GET THE THICKEST FOG...ALTHOUGH ALL TERMINALS SHOULD
SEE IT TO SOME DEGREE.

FOG LIFTS BY 14Z...WITH VFR CU DEVELOPING. BEST PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST OHIO THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THUS PREVAILING SHRA WERE INCLUDED AT ZZV AND MGW
FOR A PERIOD. VCTS TO THE NORTH OF THERE...WHILE FKL/DUJ HAVE THE
LEAST CHANCE OF GETTING WET. ANY TSRA WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF IFR
OF COURSE. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE DOWN AGAIN BY THE LATE EVENING
HOURS.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210758
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
358 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ISOLATED SHRA FINALLY EXITING THE EASTERN CWA BORDER ALONG WITH VORT
MAX.  FOG BEING HELD IN CHECK A BIT BY MIXING AT THE TOP OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER.  STILL THINK PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS...GIVEN THE WET GROUND AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND THE CWA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT WILL GET A SLIGHT NORTHWARD PUSH LATER IN THIS
PERIOD.  DEEPER MOISTURE MAKES A RUN BACK TO THE EAST...WITH THE 1.5
INCH PWAT LINE GETTING CLOSE TO PIT THIS AFTERNOON.  EXPECT SOME
POCKETS OF UP TO 2500 J/KG OF CAPE TO DEVELOP...WHICH WILL ONCE
AGAIN ALLOW FOR DIURNAL STORM DEVELOPMENT.  0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF
30-40 KNOTS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH ORGANIZATION WILL REMAIN LOW.
EXPECTING HIGHER COVERAGE ALONG/SOUTH OF BOUNDARY WITH THE JUICIER
AIRMASS...AND HAVE THE LIKELY POPS TARGETED IN THIS AREA.  CHANCE
POPS ARE FORECAST IN THE FKL/DUJ FAR NORTHERN REGION.

DESPITE ALL THIS...AM NOT SOLD ENOUGH ON THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINFALL/FLOODING TO HOIST ANY FLOOD WATCHES.  BEST ORGANIZATION AND
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL LIE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...WHERE
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG WITH H250 UPPER DIVERGENCE IN RRQ OF MODEST
JET WILL ALLOW FOR ENHANCED LIFT...NOT TO MENTION THE 2 INCH PLUS
PWAT VALUES.  THINK THE WET AREAS IN EASTERN OHIO WILL BE ABLE TO
ESCAPE ANY FURTHER IMPACTS TODAY.

TONIGHT...ACTIVITY WILL DIURNALLY DECREASE AND CLOUDS WILL BREAK
SOMEWHAT.  CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER ANYWHERE OVERNIGHT THOUGH GIVEN
THE AIRMASS AND FRONT.  THERE ARE HINTS IN THE MODELS THAT SOME SORT
OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/MCS MAY ATTEMPT TO FORM AND RIDE THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY.  AGAIN...EXPECT THIS TO BE MAINLY OFF TO THE
SOUTHWEST...BUT COULD SEE THE ZZV VICINITY GET CLIPPED AROUND 12Z.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AS
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH AND A QUASI-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE. MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE
FLOODING AS PWATS WILL QUICKLY SHOOT UP TO OVER TWO STANDARD DEVS
ABOVE NORMAL AFTER THE BRIEF DECREASE TODAY. HOWEVER...BULK SHEAR
WILL ALSO BE AROUND 30-40KTS SO SEVERAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD
WATCHES FOR NOW AS THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF
THE MOST FAVORABLE DYNAMICS BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM...GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDING WITH WPC THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE SRN
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SLOWLY SHIFTING THE AXIS INTO OUR
REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY
WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES AS WE SIT ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
A GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE UPPER TROF AXIS WOULD MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A DRYING TREND.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE EXITED...WITH QUIET WEATHER OVERNIGHT.
CLEARING WILL ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP OVER THE WET GROUND. RIVER
VALLEYS WILL GET THE THICKEST FOG...ALTHOUGH ALL TERMINALS SHOULD
SEE IT TO SOME DEGREE.

FOG LIFTS BY 14Z...WITH VFR CU DEVELOPING. BEST PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST OHIO THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THUS PREVAILING SHRA WERE INCLUDED AT ZZV AND MGW
FOR A PERIOD. VCTS TO THE NORTH OF THERE...WHILE FKL/DUJ HAVE THE
LEAST CHANCE OF GETTING WET. ANY TSRA WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF IFR
OF COURSE. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE DOWN AGAIN BY THE LATE EVENING
HOURS.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210529
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
129 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
10PM UPDATE...LINE OF STORMS IS WEAKENING AND WILL BE EXITING THE
AREA BY 11PM. SKIES ARE CLEARING BEHIND THE ACTIVITY WHICH WILL
ONLY ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH
PATCHY DENSE EVERYWHERE. TEMPS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

FLOODING ISSUES CONTINUE ACROSS THE WARNED AREAS DESPITE BATCH OF
HEAVY RAIN HAS FINISHED AND MOVED EAST. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS
DISPLAY DRY AIR ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BEHIND THE
PASSING SHORTWAVE. DESTABILIZATION IS CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
WHERE CLEARING IS OCCURRING...WITH HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE IN PLACE.
SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES GENERATING A
SHORTWAVE MAY PROGRESS EAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON TO HELP INITIATE CONVECTION. THUS...HIGH CHANCE POPS
WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE EVENING TO WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
IS DRAPED ACROSS. CONVECTION IS THEN EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATER
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND DISPLACEMENT OF THE
SHORTWAVE.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AS
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH AND A QUASI-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE. MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE
FLOODING AS PWATS WILL QUICKLY SHOOT UP TO OVER TWO STANDARD DEVS
ABOVE NORMAL AFTER THE BRIEF DECREASE TODAY. HOWEVER...BULK SHEAR
WILL ALSO BE AROUND 30-40KTS SO SEVERAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD
WATCHES FOR NOW AS THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF
THE MOST FAVORABLE DYNAMICS BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM...GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDING WITH WPC THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE SRN
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SLOWLY SHIFTING THE AXIS INTO OUR
REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY
WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES AS WE SIT ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
A GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE UPPER TROF AXIS WOULD MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A DRYING TREND.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE EXITED...WITH QUIET WEATHER OVERNIGHT.
CLEARING WILL ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP OVER THE WET GROUND. RIVER
VALLEYS WILL GET THE THICKEST FOG...ALTHOUGH ALL TERMINALS SHOULD
SEE IT TO SOME DEGREE.

FOG LIFTS BY 14Z...WITH VFR CU DEVELOPING. BEST PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST OHIO THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THUS PREVAILING SHRA WERE INCLUDED AT ZZV AND MGW
FOR A PERIOD. VCTS TO THE NORTH OF THERE...WHILE FKL/DUJ HAVE THE
LEAST CHANCE OF GETTING WET. ANY TSRA WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF IFR
OF COURSE. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE DOWN AGAIN BY THE LATE EVENING
HOURS.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210529
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
129 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
10PM UPDATE...LINE OF STORMS IS WEAKENING AND WILL BE EXITING THE
AREA BY 11PM. SKIES ARE CLEARING BEHIND THE ACTIVITY WHICH WILL
ONLY ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH
PATCHY DENSE EVERYWHERE. TEMPS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

FLOODING ISSUES CONTINUE ACROSS THE WARNED AREAS DESPITE BATCH OF
HEAVY RAIN HAS FINISHED AND MOVED EAST. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS
DISPLAY DRY AIR ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BEHIND THE
PASSING SHORTWAVE. DESTABILIZATION IS CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
WHERE CLEARING IS OCCURRING...WITH HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE IN PLACE.
SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES GENERATING A
SHORTWAVE MAY PROGRESS EAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON TO HELP INITIATE CONVECTION. THUS...HIGH CHANCE POPS
WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE EVENING TO WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
IS DRAPED ACROSS. CONVECTION IS THEN EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATER
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND DISPLACEMENT OF THE
SHORTWAVE.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AS
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH AND A QUASI-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE. MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE
FLOODING AS PWATS WILL QUICKLY SHOOT UP TO OVER TWO STANDARD DEVS
ABOVE NORMAL AFTER THE BRIEF DECREASE TODAY. HOWEVER...BULK SHEAR
WILL ALSO BE AROUND 30-40KTS SO SEVERAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD
WATCHES FOR NOW AS THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF
THE MOST FAVORABLE DYNAMICS BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM...GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDING WITH WPC THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE SRN
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SLOWLY SHIFTING THE AXIS INTO OUR
REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY
WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES AS WE SIT ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
A GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE UPPER TROF AXIS WOULD MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A DRYING TREND.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE EXITED...WITH QUIET WEATHER OVERNIGHT.
CLEARING WILL ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP OVER THE WET GROUND. RIVER
VALLEYS WILL GET THE THICKEST FOG...ALTHOUGH ALL TERMINALS SHOULD
SEE IT TO SOME DEGREE.

FOG LIFTS BY 14Z...WITH VFR CU DEVELOPING. BEST PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST OHIO THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THUS PREVAILING SHRA WERE INCLUDED AT ZZV AND MGW
FOR A PERIOD. VCTS TO THE NORTH OF THERE...WHILE FKL/DUJ HAVE THE
LEAST CHANCE OF GETTING WET. ANY TSRA WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF IFR
OF COURSE. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE DOWN AGAIN BY THE LATE EVENING
HOURS.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210201 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1001 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
10PM UPDATE...LINE OF STORMS IS WEAKENING AND WILL BE EXITING THE
AREA BY 11PM. SKIES ARE CLEARING BEHIND THE ACTIVITY WHICH WILL
ONLY ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH
PATCHY DENSE EVERYWHERE. TEMPS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

FLOODING ISSUES CONTINUE ACROSS THE WARNED AREAS DESPITE BATCH OF
HEAVY RAIN HAS FINISHED AND MOVED EAST. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS
DISPLAY DRY AIR ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BEHIND THE
PASSING SHORTWAVE. DESTABILIZATION IS CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
WHERE CLEARING IS OCCURRING...WITH HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE IN PLACE.
SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES GENERATING A
SHORTWAVE MAY PROGRESS EAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON TO HELP INITIATE CONVECTION. THUS...HIGH CHANCE POPS
WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE EVENING TO WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
IS DRAPED ACROSS. CONVECTION IS THEN EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATER
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND DISPLACEMENT OF THE
SHORTWAVE.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AS
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH AND A QUASI-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE. MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE
FLOODING AS PWATS WILL QUICKLY SHOOT UP TO OVER TWO STANDARD DEVS
ABOVE NORMAL AFTER THE BRIEF DECREASE TODAY. HOWEVER...BULK SHEAR
WILL ALSO BE AROUND 30-40KTS SO SEVERAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD
WATCHES FOR NOW AS THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF
THE MOST FAVORABLE DYNAMICS BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM...GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDING WITH WPC THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE SRN
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SLOWLY SHIFTING THE AXIS INTO OUR
REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY
WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES AS WE SIT ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
A GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE UPPER TROF AXIS WOULD MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A DRYING TREND.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS STORMS TO EXIT EASTERN PORTS BY 03Z. CLEARING SKIES WILL
ADD TO A VERY GOOD SITUATION FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. EXPECT
MVFR/IFR/LIFR FOG TO DEVELOP AT ALL PORTS. LOWEST WILL BE IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS.

VFR CU WILL REDEVELOP LATE THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SEVERAL CROSSING
DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210201 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1001 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
10PM UPDATE...LINE OF STORMS IS WEAKENING AND WILL BE EXITING THE
AREA BY 11PM. SKIES ARE CLEARING BEHIND THE ACTIVITY WHICH WILL
ONLY ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH
PATCHY DENSE EVERYWHERE. TEMPS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

FLOODING ISSUES CONTINUE ACROSS THE WARNED AREAS DESPITE BATCH OF
HEAVY RAIN HAS FINISHED AND MOVED EAST. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS
DISPLAY DRY AIR ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BEHIND THE
PASSING SHORTWAVE. DESTABILIZATION IS CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
WHERE CLEARING IS OCCURRING...WITH HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE IN PLACE.
SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES GENERATING A
SHORTWAVE MAY PROGRESS EAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON TO HELP INITIATE CONVECTION. THUS...HIGH CHANCE POPS
WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE EVENING TO WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
IS DRAPED ACROSS. CONVECTION IS THEN EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATER
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND DISPLACEMENT OF THE
SHORTWAVE.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AS
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH AND A QUASI-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE. MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE
FLOODING AS PWATS WILL QUICKLY SHOOT UP TO OVER TWO STANDARD DEVS
ABOVE NORMAL AFTER THE BRIEF DECREASE TODAY. HOWEVER...BULK SHEAR
WILL ALSO BE AROUND 30-40KTS SO SEVERAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD
WATCHES FOR NOW AS THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF
THE MOST FAVORABLE DYNAMICS BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM...GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDING WITH WPC THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE SRN
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SLOWLY SHIFTING THE AXIS INTO OUR
REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY
WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES AS WE SIT ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
A GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE UPPER TROF AXIS WOULD MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A DRYING TREND.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS STORMS TO EXIT EASTERN PORTS BY 03Z. CLEARING SKIES WILL
ADD TO A VERY GOOD SITUATION FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. EXPECT
MVFR/IFR/LIFR FOG TO DEVELOP AT ALL PORTS. LOWEST WILL BE IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS.

VFR CU WILL REDEVELOP LATE THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SEVERAL CROSSING
DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210012 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
812 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
800PM UPDATE...ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT IS ENTERING THE
EASTERN AND FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MY FA. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT LOCATIONS AND LATEST HIRES FORECAST. TEMPS AND
CLOUDS MODIFIED AS WELL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

FLOODING ISSUES CONTINUE ACROSS THE WARNED AREAS DESPITE BATCH OF
HEAVY RAIN HAS FINISHED AND MOVED EAST. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS
DISPLAY DRY AIR ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BEHIND THE
PASSING SHORTWAVE. DESTABILIZATION IS CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
WHERE CLEARING IS OCCURRING...WITH HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE IN PLACE.
SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES GENERATING A
SHORTWAVE MAY PROGRESS EAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON TO HELP INITIATE CONVECTION. THUS...HIGH CHANCE POPS
WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE EVENING TO WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
IS DRAPED ACROSS. CONVECTION IS THEN EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATER
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND DISPLACEMENT OF THE
SHORTWAVE.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AS
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH AND A QUASI-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE. MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE
FLOODING AS PWATS WILL QUICKLY SHOOT UP TO OVER TWO STANDARD DEVS
ABOVE NORMAL AFTER THE BRIEF DECREASE TODAY. HOWEVER...BULK SHEAR
WILL ALSO BE AROUND 30-40KTS SO SEVERAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD
WATCHES FOR NOW AS THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF
THE MOST FAVORABLE DYNAMICS BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM...GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDING WITH WPC THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE SRN
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SLOWLY SHIFTING THE AXIS INTO OUR
REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY
WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES AS WE SIT ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
A GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE UPPER TROF AXIS WOULD MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A DRYING TREND.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TWO PERIODS WILL DISTURB A GENERAL VFR FORECAST. FIRST IN THE
EARLY PORTION AS LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVES THROUGH. SECOND IS
THE LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT. WILL SEE VFR CU
RETURN LATE THU MORNING.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SEVERAL CROSSING
DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210012 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
812 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
800PM UPDATE...ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT IS ENTERING THE
EASTERN AND FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MY FA. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT LOCATIONS AND LATEST HIRES FORECAST. TEMPS AND
CLOUDS MODIFIED AS WELL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

FLOODING ISSUES CONTINUE ACROSS THE WARNED AREAS DESPITE BATCH OF
HEAVY RAIN HAS FINISHED AND MOVED EAST. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS
DISPLAY DRY AIR ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BEHIND THE
PASSING SHORTWAVE. DESTABILIZATION IS CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
WHERE CLEARING IS OCCURRING...WITH HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE IN PLACE.
SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES GENERATING A
SHORTWAVE MAY PROGRESS EAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON TO HELP INITIATE CONVECTION. THUS...HIGH CHANCE POPS
WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE EVENING TO WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
IS DRAPED ACROSS. CONVECTION IS THEN EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATER
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND DISPLACEMENT OF THE
SHORTWAVE.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AS
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH AND A QUASI-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE. MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE
FLOODING AS PWATS WILL QUICKLY SHOOT UP TO OVER TWO STANDARD DEVS
ABOVE NORMAL AFTER THE BRIEF DECREASE TODAY. HOWEVER...BULK SHEAR
WILL ALSO BE AROUND 30-40KTS SO SEVERAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD
WATCHES FOR NOW AS THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF
THE MOST FAVORABLE DYNAMICS BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM...GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDING WITH WPC THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE SRN
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SLOWLY SHIFTING THE AXIS INTO OUR
REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY
WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES AS WE SIT ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
A GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE UPPER TROF AXIS WOULD MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A DRYING TREND.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TWO PERIODS WILL DISTURB A GENERAL VFR FORECAST. FIRST IN THE
EARLY PORTION AS LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVES THROUGH. SECOND IS
THE LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT. WILL SEE VFR CU
RETURN LATE THU MORNING.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SEVERAL CROSSING
DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 202124 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
524 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
530PM UPDATE...BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE
EASTWARD AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH. STORMS ARE WEAKENING AS THEY
HIT AN AIR MASS THAT IS A BIT MORE STABLE. SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT
THIS EVENING BRINGING AN END TO THE ACTIVITY. ADJUSTED
POPS...CLOUDS AND TEMPS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

FLOODING ISSUES CONTINUE ACROSS THE WARNED AREAS DESPITE BATCH OF
HEAVY RAIN HAS FINISHED AND MOVED EAST. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS
DISPLAY DRY AIR ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BEHIND THE
PASSING SHORTWAVE. DESTABILIZATION IS CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
WHERE CLEARING IS OCCURRING...WITH HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE IN PLACE.
SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES GENERATING A
SHORTWAVE MAY PROGRESS EAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON TO HELP INITIATE CONVECTION. THUS...HIGH CHANCE POPS
WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE EVENING TO WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
IS DRAPED ACROSS. CONVECTION IS THEN EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATER
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND DISPLACEMENT OF THE
SHORTWAVE.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AS
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH AND A QUASI-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE. MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE
FLOODING AS PWATS WILL QUICKLY SHOOT UP TO OVER TWO STANDARD DEVS
ABOVE NORMAL AFTER THE BRIEF DECREASE TODAY. HOWEVER...BULK SHEAR
WILL ALSO BE AROUND 30-40KTS SO SEVERAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD
WATCHES FOR NOW AS THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF
THE MOST FAVORABLE DYNAMICS BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM...GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDING WITH WPC THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE SRN
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SLOWLY SHIFTING THE AXIS INTO OUR
REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY
WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES AS WE SIT ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
A GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE UPPER TROF AXIS WOULD MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A DRYING TREND.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF DAY WITH CHANCES FOR SEEING
THUNDESTORMS AT ANY ONE LOCATION LOW AS COVERAGE SHOULD BE
ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
BECOME GREATER ON THURSDAY AS A DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS DURING ANY ON SITE ACTIVITY.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SEVERAL CROSSING
DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201914
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
314 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FLOODING ISSUES CONTINUE ACROSS THE WARNED AREAS DESPITE BATCH OF
HEAVY RAIN HAS FINISHED AND MOVED EAST. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS
DISPLAY DRY AIR ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BEHIND THE
PASSING SHORTWAVE. DESTABILIZATION IS CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
WHERE CLEARING IS OCCURRING...WITH HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE IN PLACE.
SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES GENERATING A
SHORTWAVE MAY PROGRESS EAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON TO HELP INITIATE CONVECTION. THUS...HIGH CHANCE POPS
WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE EVENING TO WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
IS DRAPED ACROSS. CONVECTION IS THEN EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATER
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND DISPLACEMENT OF THE
SHORTWAVE.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AS
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH AND A QUASI-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE. MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE
FLOODING AS PWATS WILL QUICKLY SHOOT UP TO OVER TWO STANDARD DEVS
ABOVE NORMAL AFTER THE BRIEF DECREASE TODAY. HOWEVER...BULK SHEAR
WILL ALSO BE AROUND 30-40KTS SO SEVERAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD
WATCHES FOR NOW AS THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF
THE MOST FAVORABLE DYNAMICS BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM...GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDING WITH WPC THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE SRN
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SLOWLY SHIFTING THE AXIS INTO OUR
REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY
WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES AS WE SIT ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
A GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE UPPER TROF AXIS WOULD MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A DRYING TREND.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF DAY WITH CHANCES FOR SEEING
THUNDESTORMS AT ANY ONE LOCATION LOW AS COVERAGE SHOULD BE
ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
BECOME GREATER ON THURSDAY AS A DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS DURING ANY ON SITE ACTIVITY.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SEVERAL CROSSING
DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201914
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
314 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FLOODING ISSUES CONTINUE ACROSS THE WARNED AREAS DESPITE BATCH OF
HEAVY RAIN HAS FINISHED AND MOVED EAST. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS
DISPLAY DRY AIR ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BEHIND THE
PASSING SHORTWAVE. DESTABILIZATION IS CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
WHERE CLEARING IS OCCURRING...WITH HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE IN PLACE.
SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES GENERATING A
SHORTWAVE MAY PROGRESS EAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON TO HELP INITIATE CONVECTION. THUS...HIGH CHANCE POPS
WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE EVENING TO WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
IS DRAPED ACROSS. CONVECTION IS THEN EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATER
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND DISPLACEMENT OF THE
SHORTWAVE.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AS
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH AND A QUASI-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE. MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE
FLOODING AS PWATS WILL QUICKLY SHOOT UP TO OVER TWO STANDARD DEVS
ABOVE NORMAL AFTER THE BRIEF DECREASE TODAY. HOWEVER...BULK SHEAR
WILL ALSO BE AROUND 30-40KTS SO SEVERAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD
WATCHES FOR NOW AS THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF
THE MOST FAVORABLE DYNAMICS BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM...GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDING WITH WPC THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE SRN
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SLOWLY SHIFTING THE AXIS INTO OUR
REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY
WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES AS WE SIT ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
A GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE UPPER TROF AXIS WOULD MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A DRYING TREND.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF DAY WITH CHANCES FOR SEEING
THUNDESTORMS AT ANY ONE LOCATION LOW AS COVERAGE SHOULD BE
ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
BECOME GREATER ON THURSDAY AS A DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS DURING ANY ON SITE ACTIVITY.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SEVERAL CROSSING
DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201710
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
110 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FLOODING ISSUES CONTINUE ACROSS THE WARNED AREAS DESPITE BATCH OF
HEAVY RAIN HAS FINISHED AND MOVED EAST. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS
DISPLAY DRY AIR ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BEHIND THE
PASSING SHORTWAVE. DESTABILIZATION IS CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
WHERE CLEARING IS OCCURRING...WITH HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE IN PLACE.
SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES GENERATING A
SHORTWAVE MAY PROGRESS EAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON TO HELP INITIATE CONVECTION. THUS...HIGH CHANCE POPS
WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE EVENING TO WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
IS DRAPED ACROSS. CONVECTION IS THEN EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATER
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND DISPLACEMENT OF THE
SHORTWAVE.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A RELATIVELY STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHING SOUTH FROM A WEAK SFC
LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THURS THROUGH FRI WITH SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES PROGGED TO TRAVERSE ALONG IT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD QUICKLY DEVELOP THURS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES
AROUND MIDDAY. WHILE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR APPEAR TO STAY
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THURS...OVER SRN OH...WHERE SPC HAS INCLUDED
A SEE TEXT PORTION OF THE DAY TWO OUTLOOK. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z NAM
SHOWS AROUND 1500J/KG SFC CAPE AND 30-40KTS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN OUR
AREA. THE CORE OF THE H5 JET REMAINS OVER SWRN OH. COULD EXPECT A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

EXPECTING TO SEE A DIURNAL LULL LATER THURS INTO EARLY FRI...BUT
WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SHOWER CHANCES
WILL EXIST...MAINLY INTO ERN OH. FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO
BUILD OVER THE MS VALLEY...A SFC LOW LIFTS THE BOUNDARY NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A WAVE AT H7 WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AGAIN
FRI...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE. AT THIS
POINT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY HIGH CHC POPS FOCUSED ON THE EARLY
EVENING TIMING OF THE 00Z NAM/ECMWF. PWAT VALUES MAX OUT AROUND 2"
FRIDAY THROUGH ERN OH AND NRN WV ALONG THE CORRIDOR WHERE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. STORM MOTIONS FROM THE 00Z NAM
BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE IN THE 20-30KT RANGE...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD BE
HIGHLY EFFICIENT AND ANY TRAINING COULD LEAD TO WATER PROBLEMS
THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM...GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDING WITH WPC THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE SRN
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SLOWLY SHIFTING THE AXIS INTO OUR
REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY
WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES AS WE SIT ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
A GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE UPPER TROF AXIS WOULD MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A DRYING TREND.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONGEALED INTO A RAGGED
MCS THIS MORNING. MAIN LINE OF THUNDER IS HEADING THROUGH EASTERN
OHIO CURRENTLY...AND HAVE TRIED TO TIME TEMPO IFR VSBYS THROUGH
HLG/PIT/AGC/BVI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THINK THE LINE WEAKENS
BEFORE IT IMPACTS TERMINALS TO THE EAST.

A RELATIVE LULL WILL BE SEEN LATER THIS MORNING...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY ACHIEVING VFR. INSTABILITY SHRA/TSRA ARE THEN
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ASSUMING WE GET A BIT OF SUN. MAINTAINING
VCTS FOR NOW AS AM STILL UNCERTAIN ON TIMING AND AREAS OF HIGHEST
PROBABILITY.  ACTIVITY SHOULD START TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.

THINK CLOUDS BREAKUP SOMEWHAT AS WE WILL LIKELY BE IN BETWEEN
DISTURBANCES. HAVE MVFR FOG MENTIONED AT MOST SITES OVERNIGHT...AND
THIS MAY BE OPTIMISTIC AT A FEW.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201710
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
110 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FLOODING ISSUES CONTINUE ACROSS THE WARNED AREAS DESPITE BATCH OF
HEAVY RAIN HAS FINISHED AND MOVED EAST. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS
DISPLAY DRY AIR ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BEHIND THE
PASSING SHORTWAVE. DESTABILIZATION IS CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
WHERE CLEARING IS OCCURRING...WITH HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE IN PLACE.
SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES GENERATING A
SHORTWAVE MAY PROGRESS EAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON TO HELP INITIATE CONVECTION. THUS...HIGH CHANCE POPS
WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE EVENING TO WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
IS DRAPED ACROSS. CONVECTION IS THEN EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATER
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND DISPLACEMENT OF THE
SHORTWAVE.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A RELATIVELY STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHING SOUTH FROM A WEAK SFC
LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THURS THROUGH FRI WITH SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES PROGGED TO TRAVERSE ALONG IT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD QUICKLY DEVELOP THURS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES
AROUND MIDDAY. WHILE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR APPEAR TO STAY
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THURS...OVER SRN OH...WHERE SPC HAS INCLUDED
A SEE TEXT PORTION OF THE DAY TWO OUTLOOK. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z NAM
SHOWS AROUND 1500J/KG SFC CAPE AND 30-40KTS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN OUR
AREA. THE CORE OF THE H5 JET REMAINS OVER SWRN OH. COULD EXPECT A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

EXPECTING TO SEE A DIURNAL LULL LATER THURS INTO EARLY FRI...BUT
WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SHOWER CHANCES
WILL EXIST...MAINLY INTO ERN OH. FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO
BUILD OVER THE MS VALLEY...A SFC LOW LIFTS THE BOUNDARY NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A WAVE AT H7 WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AGAIN
FRI...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE. AT THIS
POINT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY HIGH CHC POPS FOCUSED ON THE EARLY
EVENING TIMING OF THE 00Z NAM/ECMWF. PWAT VALUES MAX OUT AROUND 2"
FRIDAY THROUGH ERN OH AND NRN WV ALONG THE CORRIDOR WHERE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. STORM MOTIONS FROM THE 00Z NAM
BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE IN THE 20-30KT RANGE...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD BE
HIGHLY EFFICIENT AND ANY TRAINING COULD LEAD TO WATER PROBLEMS
THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM...GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDING WITH WPC THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE SRN
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SLOWLY SHIFTING THE AXIS INTO OUR
REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY
WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES AS WE SIT ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
A GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE UPPER TROF AXIS WOULD MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A DRYING TREND.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONGEALED INTO A RAGGED
MCS THIS MORNING. MAIN LINE OF THUNDER IS HEADING THROUGH EASTERN
OHIO CURRENTLY...AND HAVE TRIED TO TIME TEMPO IFR VSBYS THROUGH
HLG/PIT/AGC/BVI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THINK THE LINE WEAKENS
BEFORE IT IMPACTS TERMINALS TO THE EAST.

A RELATIVE LULL WILL BE SEEN LATER THIS MORNING...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY ACHIEVING VFR. INSTABILITY SHRA/TSRA ARE THEN
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ASSUMING WE GET A BIT OF SUN. MAINTAINING
VCTS FOR NOW AS AM STILL UNCERTAIN ON TIMING AND AREAS OF HIGHEST
PROBABILITY.  ACTIVITY SHOULD START TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.

THINK CLOUDS BREAKUP SOMEWHAT AS WE WILL LIKELY BE IN BETWEEN
DISTURBANCES. HAVE MVFR FOG MENTIONED AT MOST SITES OVERNIGHT...AND
THIS MAY BE OPTIMISTIC AT A FEW.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201444
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1044 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FLOODING ISSUES CONTINUE ACROSS THE WARNED AREAS DESPITE BATCH OF
HEAVY RAIN HAS FINISHED AND MOVED EAST. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS
DISPLAY DRY AIR ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BEHIND THE
PASSING SHORTWAVE. DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WHERE CLEARING OCCURS...WITH HIGH SURFACE
MOISTURE IN PLACE. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW
MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO HELP INITIATE
CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON. THUS...CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ARE
FORECASTED FOR AREAS WHERE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS.
CONVECTION IS THEN EXPECTED TO DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF HEATING AND DISPLACEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A RELATIVELY STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHING SOUTH FROM A WEAK SFC
LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THURS THROUGH FRI WITH SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES PROGGED TO TRAVERSE ALONG IT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD QUICKLY DEVELOP THURS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES
AROUND MIDDAY. WHILE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR APPEAR TO STAY
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THURS...OVER SRN OH...WHERE SPC HAS INCLUDED
A SEE TEXT PORTION OF THE DAY TWO OUTLOOK. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z NAM
SHOWS AROUND 1500J/KG SFC CAPE AND 30-40KTS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN OUR
AREA. THE CORE OF THE H5 JET REMAINS OVER SWRN OH. COULD EXPECT A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

EXPECTING TO SEE A DIURNAL LULL LATER THURS INTO EARLY FRI...BUT
WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SHOWER CHANCES
WILL EXIST...MAINLY INTO ERN OH. FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO
BUILD OVER THE MS VALLEY...A SFC LOW LIFTS THE BOUNDARY NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A WAVE AT H7 WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AGAIN
FRI...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE. AT THIS
POINT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY HIGH CHC POPS FOCUSED ON THE EARLY
EVENING TIMING OF THE 00Z NAM/ECMWF. PWAT VALUES MAX OUT AROUND 2"
FRIDAY THROUGH ERN OH AND NRN WV ALONG THE CORRIDOR WHERE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. STORM MOTIONS FROM THE 00Z NAM
BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE IN THE 20-30KT RANGE...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD BE
HIGHLY EFFICIENT AND ANY TRAINING COULD LEAD TO WATER PROBLEMS
THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM...GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDING WITH WPC THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE SRN
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SLOWLY SHIFTING THE AXIS INTO OUR
REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY
WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES AS WE SIT ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
A GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE UPPER TROF AXIS WOULD MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A DRYING TREND.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONGEALED INTO A RAGGED
MCS THIS MORNING. MAIN LINE OF THUNDER IS HEADING THROUGH EASTERN
OHIO CURRENTLY...AND HAVE TRIED TO TIME TEMPO IFR VSBYS THROUGH
HLG/PIT/AGC/BVI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THINK THE LINE WEAKENS
BEFORE IT IMPACTS TERMINALS TO THE EAST.

A RELATIVE LULL WILL BE SEEN LATER THIS MORNING...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY ACHIEVING VFR. INSTABILITY SHRA/TSRA ARE THEN
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ASSUMING WE GET A BIT OF SUN. MAINTAINING
VCTS FOR NOW AS AM STILL UNCERTAIN ON TIMING AND AREAS OF HIGHEST
PROBABILITY.  ACTIVITY SHOULD START TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.

THINK CLOUDS BREAKUP SOMEWHAT AS WE WILL LIKELY BE IN BETWEEN
DISTURBANCES. HAVE MVFR FOG MENTIONED AT MOST SITES OVERNIGHT...AND
THIS MAY BE OPTIMISTIC AT A FEW.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201444
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1044 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FLOODING ISSUES CONTINUE ACROSS THE WARNED AREAS DESPITE BATCH OF
HEAVY RAIN HAS FINISHED AND MOVED EAST. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS
DISPLAY DRY AIR ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BEHIND THE
PASSING SHORTWAVE. DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WHERE CLEARING OCCURS...WITH HIGH SURFACE
MOISTURE IN PLACE. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW
MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO HELP INITIATE
CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON. THUS...CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ARE
FORECASTED FOR AREAS WHERE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS.
CONVECTION IS THEN EXPECTED TO DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF HEATING AND DISPLACEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A RELATIVELY STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHING SOUTH FROM A WEAK SFC
LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THURS THROUGH FRI WITH SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES PROGGED TO TRAVERSE ALONG IT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD QUICKLY DEVELOP THURS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES
AROUND MIDDAY. WHILE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR APPEAR TO STAY
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THURS...OVER SRN OH...WHERE SPC HAS INCLUDED
A SEE TEXT PORTION OF THE DAY TWO OUTLOOK. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z NAM
SHOWS AROUND 1500J/KG SFC CAPE AND 30-40KTS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN OUR
AREA. THE CORE OF THE H5 JET REMAINS OVER SWRN OH. COULD EXPECT A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

EXPECTING TO SEE A DIURNAL LULL LATER THURS INTO EARLY FRI...BUT
WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SHOWER CHANCES
WILL EXIST...MAINLY INTO ERN OH. FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO
BUILD OVER THE MS VALLEY...A SFC LOW LIFTS THE BOUNDARY NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A WAVE AT H7 WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AGAIN
FRI...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE. AT THIS
POINT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY HIGH CHC POPS FOCUSED ON THE EARLY
EVENING TIMING OF THE 00Z NAM/ECMWF. PWAT VALUES MAX OUT AROUND 2"
FRIDAY THROUGH ERN OH AND NRN WV ALONG THE CORRIDOR WHERE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. STORM MOTIONS FROM THE 00Z NAM
BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE IN THE 20-30KT RANGE...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD BE
HIGHLY EFFICIENT AND ANY TRAINING COULD LEAD TO WATER PROBLEMS
THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM...GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDING WITH WPC THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE SRN
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SLOWLY SHIFTING THE AXIS INTO OUR
REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY
WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES AS WE SIT ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
A GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE UPPER TROF AXIS WOULD MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A DRYING TREND.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONGEALED INTO A RAGGED
MCS THIS MORNING. MAIN LINE OF THUNDER IS HEADING THROUGH EASTERN
OHIO CURRENTLY...AND HAVE TRIED TO TIME TEMPO IFR VSBYS THROUGH
HLG/PIT/AGC/BVI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THINK THE LINE WEAKENS
BEFORE IT IMPACTS TERMINALS TO THE EAST.

A RELATIVE LULL WILL BE SEEN LATER THIS MORNING...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY ACHIEVING VFR. INSTABILITY SHRA/TSRA ARE THEN
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ASSUMING WE GET A BIT OF SUN. MAINTAINING
VCTS FOR NOW AS AM STILL UNCERTAIN ON TIMING AND AREAS OF HIGHEST
PROBABILITY.  ACTIVITY SHOULD START TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.

THINK CLOUDS BREAKUP SOMEWHAT AS WE WILL LIKELY BE IN BETWEEN
DISTURBANCES. HAVE MVFR FOG MENTIONED AT MOST SITES OVERNIGHT...AND
THIS MAY BE OPTIMISTIC AT A FEW.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201212
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
812 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
800 AM UPDATE...MADE ADJUSTMENT TO POPS AS BAND OF HEAVY RAIN
MOVES ACROSS THE CWA. THIS AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION WILL PASS BY LATE MORNING WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SURFACE LOW SPINNING OVER MICHIGAN CURRENTLY...PUSHING A WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD ACROSS PBZ CWA.  FRONT HAS AIDED REDEVELOPMENT OF TSRA
BEHIND INITIAL COMPLEX WHICH HAS WEAKENED.  HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS IN
A FEW SPOTS IN OHIO...ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.  HANGING ON TO
LIKELY POPS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AIDED BY A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL ROTATE THROUGH BY AFTERNOON.  A RELATIVE
LULL IN PRECIPITATION MAY BE SEEN DURING THE LATE MORNING.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL COMBINE WITH
THE BOUNDARY TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LIKELY POPS AREAWIDE.  PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.8
INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL.  TOUGH TO PINPOINT
AREAS THAT HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING WATER PROBLEMS.  WILL
HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN HWO BUT HOLD OFF ON ANY WATCHES AT THIS TIME.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT GIVEN THE UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR
PROFILE.  TRIED TO KEEP HIGH TEMPS ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

ACTIVITY DECREASES SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
AND DEPARTURE OF BETTER UPPER SUPPORT.  WE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE IN
A SHORT DRY PERIOD DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS BEFORE ACTIVITY RAMPS UP
AGAIN SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A RELATIVELY STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHING SOUTH FROM A WEAK SFC
LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THURS THROUGH FRI WITH SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES PROGGED TO TRAVERSE ALONG IT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD QUICKLY DEVELOP THURS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES
AROUND MIDDAY. WHILE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR APPEAR TO STAY
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THURS...OVER SRN OH...WHERE SPC HAS INCLUDED
A SEE TEXT PORTION OF THE DAY TWO OUTLOOK. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z NAM
SHOWS AROUND 1500J/KG SFC CAPE AND 30-40KTS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN OUR
AREA. THE CORE OF THE H5 JET REMAINS OVER SWRN OH. COULD EXPECT A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

EXPECTING TO SEE A DIURNAL LULL LATER THURS INTO EARLY FRI...BUT
WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SHOWER CHANCES
WILL EXIST...MAINLY INTO ERN OH. FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO
BUILD OVER THE MS VALLEY...A SFC LOW LIFTS THE BOUNDARY NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A WAVE AT H7 WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AGAIN
FRI...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE. AT THIS
POINT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY HIGH CHC POPS FOCUSED ON THE EARLY
EVENING TIMING OF THE 00Z NAM/ECMWF. PWAT VALUES MAX OUT AROUND 2"
FRIDAY THROUGH ERN OH AND NRN WV ALONG THE CORRIDOR WHERE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. STORM MOTIONS FROM THE 00Z NAM
BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE IN THE 20-30KT RANGE...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD BE
HIGHLY EFFICIENT AND ANY TRAINING COULD LEAD TO WATER PROBLEMS
THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM...GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDING WITH WPC THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE SRN
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SLOWLY SHIFTING THE AXIS INTO OUR
REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY
WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES AS WE SIT ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
A GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE UPPER TROF AXIS WOULD MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A DRYING TREND.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONGEALED INTO A RAGGED
MCS THIS MORNING. MAIN LINE OF THUNDER IS HEADING THROUGH EASTERN
OHIO CURRENTLY...AND HAVE TRIED TO TIME TEMPO IFR VSBYS THROUGH
HLG/PIT/AGC/BVI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THINK THE LINE WEAKENS
BEFORE IT IMPACTS TERMINALS TO THE EAST.

A RELATIVE LULL WILL BE SEEN LATER THIS MORNING...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY ACHIEVING VFR. INSTABILITY SHRA/TSRA ARE THEN
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ASSUMING WE GET A BIT OF SUN. MAINTAINING
VCTS FOR NOW AS AM STILL UNCERTAIN ON TIMING AND AREAS OF HIGHEST
PROBABILITY.  ACTIVITY SHOULD START TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.

THINK CLOUDS BREAKUP SOMEWHAT AS WE WILL LIKELY BE IN BETWEEN
DISTURBANCES. HAVE MVFR FOG MENTIONED AT MOST SITES OVERNIGHT...AND
THIS MAY BE OPTIMISTIC AT A FEW.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201212
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
812 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
800 AM UPDATE...MADE ADJUSTMENT TO POPS AS BAND OF HEAVY RAIN
MOVES ACROSS THE CWA. THIS AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION WILL PASS BY LATE MORNING WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SURFACE LOW SPINNING OVER MICHIGAN CURRENTLY...PUSHING A WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD ACROSS PBZ CWA.  FRONT HAS AIDED REDEVELOPMENT OF TSRA
BEHIND INITIAL COMPLEX WHICH HAS WEAKENED.  HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS IN
A FEW SPOTS IN OHIO...ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.  HANGING ON TO
LIKELY POPS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AIDED BY A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL ROTATE THROUGH BY AFTERNOON.  A RELATIVE
LULL IN PRECIPITATION MAY BE SEEN DURING THE LATE MORNING.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL COMBINE WITH
THE BOUNDARY TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LIKELY POPS AREAWIDE.  PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.8
INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL.  TOUGH TO PINPOINT
AREAS THAT HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING WATER PROBLEMS.  WILL
HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN HWO BUT HOLD OFF ON ANY WATCHES AT THIS TIME.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT GIVEN THE UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR
PROFILE.  TRIED TO KEEP HIGH TEMPS ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

ACTIVITY DECREASES SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
AND DEPARTURE OF BETTER UPPER SUPPORT.  WE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE IN
A SHORT DRY PERIOD DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS BEFORE ACTIVITY RAMPS UP
AGAIN SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A RELATIVELY STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHING SOUTH FROM A WEAK SFC
LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THURS THROUGH FRI WITH SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES PROGGED TO TRAVERSE ALONG IT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD QUICKLY DEVELOP THURS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES
AROUND MIDDAY. WHILE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR APPEAR TO STAY
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THURS...OVER SRN OH...WHERE SPC HAS INCLUDED
A SEE TEXT PORTION OF THE DAY TWO OUTLOOK. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z NAM
SHOWS AROUND 1500J/KG SFC CAPE AND 30-40KTS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN OUR
AREA. THE CORE OF THE H5 JET REMAINS OVER SWRN OH. COULD EXPECT A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

EXPECTING TO SEE A DIURNAL LULL LATER THURS INTO EARLY FRI...BUT
WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SHOWER CHANCES
WILL EXIST...MAINLY INTO ERN OH. FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO
BUILD OVER THE MS VALLEY...A SFC LOW LIFTS THE BOUNDARY NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A WAVE AT H7 WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AGAIN
FRI...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE. AT THIS
POINT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY HIGH CHC POPS FOCUSED ON THE EARLY
EVENING TIMING OF THE 00Z NAM/ECMWF. PWAT VALUES MAX OUT AROUND 2"
FRIDAY THROUGH ERN OH AND NRN WV ALONG THE CORRIDOR WHERE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. STORM MOTIONS FROM THE 00Z NAM
BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE IN THE 20-30KT RANGE...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD BE
HIGHLY EFFICIENT AND ANY TRAINING COULD LEAD TO WATER PROBLEMS
THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM...GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDING WITH WPC THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE SRN
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SLOWLY SHIFTING THE AXIS INTO OUR
REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY
WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES AS WE SIT ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
A GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE UPPER TROF AXIS WOULD MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A DRYING TREND.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONGEALED INTO A RAGGED
MCS THIS MORNING. MAIN LINE OF THUNDER IS HEADING THROUGH EASTERN
OHIO CURRENTLY...AND HAVE TRIED TO TIME TEMPO IFR VSBYS THROUGH
HLG/PIT/AGC/BVI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THINK THE LINE WEAKENS
BEFORE IT IMPACTS TERMINALS TO THE EAST.

A RELATIVE LULL WILL BE SEEN LATER THIS MORNING...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY ACHIEVING VFR. INSTABILITY SHRA/TSRA ARE THEN
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ASSUMING WE GET A BIT OF SUN. MAINTAINING
VCTS FOR NOW AS AM STILL UNCERTAIN ON TIMING AND AREAS OF HIGHEST
PROBABILITY.  ACTIVITY SHOULD START TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.

THINK CLOUDS BREAKUP SOMEWHAT AS WE WILL LIKELY BE IN BETWEEN
DISTURBANCES. HAVE MVFR FOG MENTIONED AT MOST SITES OVERNIGHT...AND
THIS MAY BE OPTIMISTIC AT A FEW.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201042
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
642 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
545 AM UPDATE...UPPED POPS A BIT AS SHRA/TSRA HAVE CONGEALED
SOMEWHAT. WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO GENERATE LIFT AND FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. ISSUED FFW FOR TUSCARAWAS/CARROLL DUE TO EARLIER 2-3
INCH RAINS PLUS APPROACHING STORMS. STILL MAY GET A BRIEF BREAK
DURING THE LATE MORNING BEFORE INSTABILITY STORMS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SURFACE LOW SPINNING OVER MICHIGAN CURRENTLY...PUSHING A WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD ACROSS PBZ CWA.  FRONT HAS AIDED REDEVELOPMENT OF TSRA
BEHIND INITIAL COMPLEX WHICH HAS WEAKENED.  HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS IN
A FEW SPOTS IN OHIO...ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.  HANGING ON TO
LIKELY POPS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AIDED BY A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL ROTATE THROUGH BY AFTERNOON.  A RELATIVE
LULL IN PRECIPITATION MAY BE SEEN DURING THE LATE MORNING.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL COMBINE WITH
THE BOUNDARY TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LIKELY POPS AREAWIDE.  PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.8
INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL.  TOUGH TO PINPOINT
AREAS THAT HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING WATER PROBLEMS.  WILL
HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN HWO BUT HOLD OFF ON ANY WATCHES AT THIS TIME.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT GIVEN THE UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR
PROFILE.  TRIED TO KEEP HIGH TEMPS ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

ACTIVITY DECREASES SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
AND DEPARTURE OF BETTER UPPER SUPPORT.  WE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE IN
A SHORT DRY PERIOD DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS BEFORE ACTIVITY RAMPS UP
AGAIN SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A RELATIVELY STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHING SOUTH FROM A WEAK SFC
LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THURS THROUGH FRI WITH SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES PROGGED TO TRAVERSE ALONG IT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD QUICKLY DEVELOP THURS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES
AROUND MIDDAY. WHILE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR APPEAR TO STAY
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THURS...OVER SRN OH...WHERE SPC HAS INCLUDED
A SEE TEXT PORTION OF THE DAY TWO OUTLOOK. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z NAM
SHOWS AROUND 1500J/KG SFC CAPE AND 30-40KTS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN OUR
AREA. THE CORE OF THE H5 JET REMAINS OVER SWRN OH. COULD EXPECT A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

EXPECTING TO SEE A DIURNAL LULL LATER THURS INTO EARLY FRI...BUT
WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SHOWER CHANCES
WILL EXIST...MAINLY INTO ERN OH. FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO
BUILD OVER THE MS VALLEY...A SFC LOW LIFTS THE BOUNDARY NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A WAVE AT H7 WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AGAIN
FRI...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE. AT THIS
POINT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY HIGH CHC POPS FOCUSED ON THE EARLY
EVENING TIMING OF THE 00Z NAM/ECMWF. PWAT VALUES MAX OUT AROUND 2"
FRIDAY THROUGH ERN OH AND NRN WV ALONG THE CORRIDOR WHERE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. STORM MOTIONS FROM THE 00Z NAM
BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE IN THE 20-30KT RANGE...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD BE
HIGHLY EFFICIENT AND ANY TRAINING COULD LEAD TO WATER PROBLEMS
THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM...GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDING WITH WPC THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE SRN
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SLOWLY SHIFTING THE AXIS INTO OUR
REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY
WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES AS WE SIT ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
A GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE UPPER TROF AXIS WOULD MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A DRYING TREND.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONGEALED INTO A RAGGED
MCS THIS MORNING. MAIN LINE OF THUNDER IS HEADING THROUGH EASTERN
OHIO CURRENTLY...AND HAVE TRIED TO TIME TEMPO IFR VSBYS THROUGH
HLG/PIT/AGC/BVI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THINK THE LINE WEAKENS
BEFORE IT IMPACTS TERMINALS TO THE EAST.

A RELATIVE LULL WILL BE SEEN LATER THIS MORNING...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY ACHIEVING VFR. INSTABILITY SHRA/TSRA ARE THEN
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ASSUMING WE GET A BIT OF SUN. MAINTAINING
VCTS FOR NOW AS AM STILL UNCERTAIN ON TIMING AND AREAS OF HIGHEST
PROBABILITY.  ACTIVITY SHOULD START TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.

THINK CLOUDS BREAKUP SOMEWHAT AS WE WILL LIKELY BE IN BETWEEN
DISTURBANCES. HAVE MVFR FOG MENTIONED AT MOST SITES OVERNIGHT...AND
THIS MAY BE OPTIMISTIC AT A FEW.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201042
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
642 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
545 AM UPDATE...UPPED POPS A BIT AS SHRA/TSRA HAVE CONGEALED
SOMEWHAT. WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO GENERATE LIFT AND FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. ISSUED FFW FOR TUSCARAWAS/CARROLL DUE TO EARLIER 2-3
INCH RAINS PLUS APPROACHING STORMS. STILL MAY GET A BRIEF BREAK
DURING THE LATE MORNING BEFORE INSTABILITY STORMS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SURFACE LOW SPINNING OVER MICHIGAN CURRENTLY...PUSHING A WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD ACROSS PBZ CWA.  FRONT HAS AIDED REDEVELOPMENT OF TSRA
BEHIND INITIAL COMPLEX WHICH HAS WEAKENED.  HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS IN
A FEW SPOTS IN OHIO...ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.  HANGING ON TO
LIKELY POPS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AIDED BY A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL ROTATE THROUGH BY AFTERNOON.  A RELATIVE
LULL IN PRECIPITATION MAY BE SEEN DURING THE LATE MORNING.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL COMBINE WITH
THE BOUNDARY TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LIKELY POPS AREAWIDE.  PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.8
INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL.  TOUGH TO PINPOINT
AREAS THAT HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING WATER PROBLEMS.  WILL
HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN HWO BUT HOLD OFF ON ANY WATCHES AT THIS TIME.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT GIVEN THE UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR
PROFILE.  TRIED TO KEEP HIGH TEMPS ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

ACTIVITY DECREASES SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
AND DEPARTURE OF BETTER UPPER SUPPORT.  WE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE IN
A SHORT DRY PERIOD DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS BEFORE ACTIVITY RAMPS UP
AGAIN SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A RELATIVELY STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHING SOUTH FROM A WEAK SFC
LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THURS THROUGH FRI WITH SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES PROGGED TO TRAVERSE ALONG IT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD QUICKLY DEVELOP THURS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES
AROUND MIDDAY. WHILE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR APPEAR TO STAY
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THURS...OVER SRN OH...WHERE SPC HAS INCLUDED
A SEE TEXT PORTION OF THE DAY TWO OUTLOOK. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z NAM
SHOWS AROUND 1500J/KG SFC CAPE AND 30-40KTS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN OUR
AREA. THE CORE OF THE H5 JET REMAINS OVER SWRN OH. COULD EXPECT A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

EXPECTING TO SEE A DIURNAL LULL LATER THURS INTO EARLY FRI...BUT
WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SHOWER CHANCES
WILL EXIST...MAINLY INTO ERN OH. FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO
BUILD OVER THE MS VALLEY...A SFC LOW LIFTS THE BOUNDARY NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A WAVE AT H7 WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AGAIN
FRI...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE. AT THIS
POINT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY HIGH CHC POPS FOCUSED ON THE EARLY
EVENING TIMING OF THE 00Z NAM/ECMWF. PWAT VALUES MAX OUT AROUND 2"
FRIDAY THROUGH ERN OH AND NRN WV ALONG THE CORRIDOR WHERE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. STORM MOTIONS FROM THE 00Z NAM
BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE IN THE 20-30KT RANGE...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD BE
HIGHLY EFFICIENT AND ANY TRAINING COULD LEAD TO WATER PROBLEMS
THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM...GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDING WITH WPC THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE SRN
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SLOWLY SHIFTING THE AXIS INTO OUR
REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY
WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES AS WE SIT ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
A GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE UPPER TROF AXIS WOULD MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A DRYING TREND.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONGEALED INTO A RAGGED
MCS THIS MORNING. MAIN LINE OF THUNDER IS HEADING THROUGH EASTERN
OHIO CURRENTLY...AND HAVE TRIED TO TIME TEMPO IFR VSBYS THROUGH
HLG/PIT/AGC/BVI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THINK THE LINE WEAKENS
BEFORE IT IMPACTS TERMINALS TO THE EAST.

A RELATIVE LULL WILL BE SEEN LATER THIS MORNING...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY ACHIEVING VFR. INSTABILITY SHRA/TSRA ARE THEN
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ASSUMING WE GET A BIT OF SUN. MAINTAINING
VCTS FOR NOW AS AM STILL UNCERTAIN ON TIMING AND AREAS OF HIGHEST
PROBABILITY.  ACTIVITY SHOULD START TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.

THINK CLOUDS BREAKUP SOMEWHAT AS WE WILL LIKELY BE IN BETWEEN
DISTURBANCES. HAVE MVFR FOG MENTIONED AT MOST SITES OVERNIGHT...AND
THIS MAY BE OPTIMISTIC AT A FEW.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200948
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
548 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
545 AM UPDATE...UPPED POPS A BIT AS SHRA/TSRA HAVE CONGEALED
SOMEWHAT. WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO GENERATE LIFT AND FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. ISSUED FFW FOR TUSCARAWAS/CARROLL DUE TO EARLIER 2-3
INCH RAINS PLUS APPROACHING STORMS. STILL MAY GET A BRIEF BREAK
DURING THE LATE MORNING BEFORE INSTABILITY STORMS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SURFACE LOW SPINNING OVER MICHIGAN CURRENTLY...PUSHING A WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD ACROSS PBZ CWA.  FRONT HAS AIDED REDEVELOPMENT OF TSRA
BEHIND INITIAL COMPLEX WHICH HAS WEAKENED.  HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS IN
A FEW SPOTS IN OHIO...ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.  HANGING ON TO
LIKELY POPS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AIDED BY A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL ROTATE THROUGH BY AFTERNOON.  A RELATIVE
LULL IN PRECIPITATION MAY BE SEEN DURING THE LATE MORNING.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL COMBINE WITH
THE BOUNDARY TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LIKELY POPS AREAWIDE.  PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.8
INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL.  TOUGH TO PINPOINT
AREAS THAT HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING WATER PROBLEMS.  WILL
HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN HWO BUT HOLD OFF ON ANY WATCHES AT THIS TIME.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT GIVEN THE UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR
PROFILE.  TRIED TO KEEP HIGH TEMPS ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

ACTIVITY DECREASES SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
AND DEPARTURE OF BETTER UPPER SUPPORT.  WE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE IN
A SHORT DRY PERIOD DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS BEFORE ACTIVITY RAMPS UP
AGAIN SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A RELATIVELY STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHING SOUTH FROM A WEAK SFC
LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THURS THROUGH FRI WITH SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES PROGGED TO TRAVERSE ALONG IT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD QUICKLY DEVELOP THURS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES
AROUND MIDDAY. WHILE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR APPEAR TO STAY
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THURS...OVER SRN OH...WHERE SPC HAS INCLUDED
A SEE TEXT PORTION OF THE DAY TWO OUTLOOK. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z NAM
SHOWS AROUND 1500J/KG SFC CAPE AND 30-40KTS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN OUR
AREA. THE CORE OF THE H5 JET REMAINS OVER SWRN OH. COULD EXPECT A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

EXPECTING TO SEE A DIURNAL LULL LATER THURS INTO EARLY FRI...BUT
WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SHOWER CHANCES
WILL EXIST...MAINLY INTO ERN OH. FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO
BUILD OVER THE MS VALLEY...A SFC LOW LIFTS THE BOUNDARY NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A WAVE AT H7 WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AGAIN
FRI...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE. AT THIS
POINT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY HIGH CHC POPS FOCUSED ON THE EARLY
EVENING TIMING OF THE 00Z NAM/ECMWF. PWAT VALUES MAX OUT AROUND 2"
FRIDAY THROUGH ERN OH AND NRN WV ALONG THE CORRIDOR WHERE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. STORM MOTIONS FROM THE 00Z NAM
BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE IN THE 20-30KT RANGE...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD BE
HIGHLY EFFICIENT AND ANY TRAINING COULD LEAD TO WATER PROBLEMS
THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM...GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDING WITH WPC THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE SRN
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SLOWLY SHIFTING THE AXIS INTO OUR
REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY
WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES AS WE SIT ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
A GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE UPPER TROF AXIS WOULD MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A DRYING TREND.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE LOST A LITTLE BIT OF PUNCH BUT CONTINUE TO
WORK THEIR WAY ACROSS THE AREA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF RAIN
IS PRODUCING A 20-30 KNOT GUST AS IT MOVES THROUGH...AND HAVE
TRIED TO HANDLE THIS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MVFR/SPOTTY IFR
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS RAIN BATCH AS IT ACCOMPANIES A
SHORTWAVE. KEPT VCSH BEHIND THE MAIN BATCH WITH REDEVELOPMENT
ACROSS OHIO.

A BRIEF BREAK IN RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z OR SO
LATER THIS MORNING. THEN...DIURNAL INSTABILITY BUILDUP WILL ALLOW
SHRA/TSRA TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT VCTS MENTION AS IT IS STILL
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT LOCATION AND TIMING...ALTHOUGH BRIEF IFR
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE. ACTIVITY STARTS TO CALM DOWN A
BIT AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200948
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
548 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
545 AM UPDATE...UPPED POPS A BIT AS SHRA/TSRA HAVE CONGEALED
SOMEWHAT. WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO GENERATE LIFT AND FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. ISSUED FFW FOR TUSCARAWAS/CARROLL DUE TO EARLIER 2-3
INCH RAINS PLUS APPROACHING STORMS. STILL MAY GET A BRIEF BREAK
DURING THE LATE MORNING BEFORE INSTABILITY STORMS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SURFACE LOW SPINNING OVER MICHIGAN CURRENTLY...PUSHING A WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD ACROSS PBZ CWA.  FRONT HAS AIDED REDEVELOPMENT OF TSRA
BEHIND INITIAL COMPLEX WHICH HAS WEAKENED.  HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS IN
A FEW SPOTS IN OHIO...ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.  HANGING ON TO
LIKELY POPS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AIDED BY A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL ROTATE THROUGH BY AFTERNOON.  A RELATIVE
LULL IN PRECIPITATION MAY BE SEEN DURING THE LATE MORNING.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL COMBINE WITH
THE BOUNDARY TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LIKELY POPS AREAWIDE.  PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.8
INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL.  TOUGH TO PINPOINT
AREAS THAT HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING WATER PROBLEMS.  WILL
HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN HWO BUT HOLD OFF ON ANY WATCHES AT THIS TIME.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT GIVEN THE UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR
PROFILE.  TRIED TO KEEP HIGH TEMPS ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

ACTIVITY DECREASES SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
AND DEPARTURE OF BETTER UPPER SUPPORT.  WE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE IN
A SHORT DRY PERIOD DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS BEFORE ACTIVITY RAMPS UP
AGAIN SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A RELATIVELY STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHING SOUTH FROM A WEAK SFC
LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THURS THROUGH FRI WITH SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES PROGGED TO TRAVERSE ALONG IT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD QUICKLY DEVELOP THURS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES
AROUND MIDDAY. WHILE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR APPEAR TO STAY
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THURS...OVER SRN OH...WHERE SPC HAS INCLUDED
A SEE TEXT PORTION OF THE DAY TWO OUTLOOK. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z NAM
SHOWS AROUND 1500J/KG SFC CAPE AND 30-40KTS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN OUR
AREA. THE CORE OF THE H5 JET REMAINS OVER SWRN OH. COULD EXPECT A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

EXPECTING TO SEE A DIURNAL LULL LATER THURS INTO EARLY FRI...BUT
WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SHOWER CHANCES
WILL EXIST...MAINLY INTO ERN OH. FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO
BUILD OVER THE MS VALLEY...A SFC LOW LIFTS THE BOUNDARY NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A WAVE AT H7 WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AGAIN
FRI...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE. AT THIS
POINT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY HIGH CHC POPS FOCUSED ON THE EARLY
EVENING TIMING OF THE 00Z NAM/ECMWF. PWAT VALUES MAX OUT AROUND 2"
FRIDAY THROUGH ERN OH AND NRN WV ALONG THE CORRIDOR WHERE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. STORM MOTIONS FROM THE 00Z NAM
BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE IN THE 20-30KT RANGE...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD BE
HIGHLY EFFICIENT AND ANY TRAINING COULD LEAD TO WATER PROBLEMS
THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM...GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDING WITH WPC THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE SRN
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SLOWLY SHIFTING THE AXIS INTO OUR
REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY
WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES AS WE SIT ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
A GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE UPPER TROF AXIS WOULD MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A DRYING TREND.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE LOST A LITTLE BIT OF PUNCH BUT CONTINUE TO
WORK THEIR WAY ACROSS THE AREA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF RAIN
IS PRODUCING A 20-30 KNOT GUST AS IT MOVES THROUGH...AND HAVE
TRIED TO HANDLE THIS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MVFR/SPOTTY IFR
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS RAIN BATCH AS IT ACCOMPANIES A
SHORTWAVE. KEPT VCSH BEHIND THE MAIN BATCH WITH REDEVELOPMENT
ACROSS OHIO.

A BRIEF BREAK IN RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z OR SO
LATER THIS MORNING. THEN...DIURNAL INSTABILITY BUILDUP WILL ALLOW
SHRA/TSRA TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT VCTS MENTION AS IT IS STILL
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT LOCATION AND TIMING...ALTHOUGH BRIEF IFR
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE. ACTIVITY STARTS TO CALM DOWN A
BIT AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200829
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
429 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE LOW SPINNING OVER MICHIGAN CURRENTLY...PUSHING A WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD ACROSS PBZ CWA.  FRONT HAS AIDED REDEVELOPMENT OF TSRA
BEHIND INITIAL COMPLEX WHICH HAS WEAKENED.  HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS IN
A FEW SPOTS IN OHIO...ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.  HANGING ON TO
LIKELY POPS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AIDED BY A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL ROTATE THROUGH BY AFTERNOON.  A RELATIVE
LULL IN PRECIPITATION MAY BE SEEN DURING THE LATE MORNING.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL COMBINE WITH
THE BOUNDARY TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LIKELY POPS AREAWIDE.  PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.8
INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL.  TOUGH TO PINPOINT
AREAS THAT HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING WATER PROBLEMS.  WILL
HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN HWO BUT HOLD OFF ON ANY WATCHES AT THIS TIME.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT GIVEN THE UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR
PROFILE.  TRIED TO KEEP HIGH TEMPS ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

ACTIVITY DECREASES SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
AND DEPARTURE OF BETTER UPPER SUPPORT.  WE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE IN
A SHORT DRY PERIOD DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS BEFORE ACTIVITY RAMPS UP
AGAIN SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A RELATIVELY STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHING SOUTH FROM A WEAK SFC
LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THURS THROUGH FRI WITH SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES PROGGED TO TRAVERSE ALONG IT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD QUICKLY DEVELOP THURS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES
AROUND MIDDAY. WHILE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR APPEAR TO STAY
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THURS...OVER SRN OH...WHERE SPC HAS INCLUDED
A SEE TEXT PORTION OF THE DAY TWO OUTLOOK. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z NAM
SHOWS AROUND 1500J/KG SFC CAPE AND 30-40KTS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN OUR
AREA. THE CORE OF THE H5 JET REMAINS OVER SWRN OH. COULD EXPECT A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

EXPECTING TO SEE A DIURNAL LULL LATER THURS INTO EARLY FRI...BUT
WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SHOWER CHANCES
WILL EXIST...MAINLY INTO ERN OH. FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO
BUILD OVER THE MS VALLEY...A SFC LOW LIFTS THE BOUNDARY NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A WAVE AT H7 WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AGAIN
FRI...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE. AT THIS
POINT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY HIGH CHC POPS FOCUSED ON THE EARLY
EVENING TIMING OF THE 00Z NAM/ECMWF. PWAT VALUES MAX OUT AROUND 2"
FRIDAY THROUGH ERN OH AND NRN WV ALONG THE CORRIDOR WHERE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. STORM MOTIONS FROM THE 00Z NAM
BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE IN THE 20-30KT RANGE...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD BE
HIGHLY EFFICIENT AND ANY TRAINING COULD LEAD TO WATER PROBLEMS
THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM...GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDING WITH WPC THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE SRN
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SLOWLY SHIFTING THE AXIS INTO OUR
REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY
WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES AS WE SIT ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
A GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE UPPER TROF AXIS WOULD MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A DRYING TREND.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE LOST A LITTLE BIT OF PUNCH BUT CONTINUE TO
WORK THEIR WAY ACROSS THE AREA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF RAIN
IS PRODUCING A 20-30 KNOT GUST AS IT MOVES THROUGH...AND HAVE
TRIED TO HANDLE THIS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MVFR/SPOTTY IFR
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS RAIN BATCH AS IT ACCOMPANIES A
SHORTWAVE. KEPT VCSH BEHIND THE MAIN BATCH WITH REDEVELOPMENT
ACROSS OHIO.

A BRIEF BREAK IN RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z OR SO
LATER THIS MORNING. THEN...DIURNAL INSTABILITY BUILDUP WILL ALLOW
SHRA/TSRA TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT VCTS MENTION AS IT IS STILL
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT LOCATION AND TIMING...ALTHOUGH BRIEF IFR
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE. ACTIVITY STARTS TO CALM DOWN A
BIT AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200829
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
429 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE LOW SPINNING OVER MICHIGAN CURRENTLY...PUSHING A WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD ACROSS PBZ CWA.  FRONT HAS AIDED REDEVELOPMENT OF TSRA
BEHIND INITIAL COMPLEX WHICH HAS WEAKENED.  HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS IN
A FEW SPOTS IN OHIO...ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.  HANGING ON TO
LIKELY POPS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AIDED BY A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL ROTATE THROUGH BY AFTERNOON.  A RELATIVE
LULL IN PRECIPITATION MAY BE SEEN DURING THE LATE MORNING.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL COMBINE WITH
THE BOUNDARY TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LIKELY POPS AREAWIDE.  PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.8
INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL.  TOUGH TO PINPOINT
AREAS THAT HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING WATER PROBLEMS.  WILL
HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN HWO BUT HOLD OFF ON ANY WATCHES AT THIS TIME.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT GIVEN THE UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR
PROFILE.  TRIED TO KEEP HIGH TEMPS ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

ACTIVITY DECREASES SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
AND DEPARTURE OF BETTER UPPER SUPPORT.  WE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE IN
A SHORT DRY PERIOD DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS BEFORE ACTIVITY RAMPS UP
AGAIN SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A RELATIVELY STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHING SOUTH FROM A WEAK SFC
LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THURS THROUGH FRI WITH SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES PROGGED TO TRAVERSE ALONG IT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD QUICKLY DEVELOP THURS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES
AROUND MIDDAY. WHILE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR APPEAR TO STAY
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THURS...OVER SRN OH...WHERE SPC HAS INCLUDED
A SEE TEXT PORTION OF THE DAY TWO OUTLOOK. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z NAM
SHOWS AROUND 1500J/KG SFC CAPE AND 30-40KTS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN OUR
AREA. THE CORE OF THE H5 JET REMAINS OVER SWRN OH. COULD EXPECT A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

EXPECTING TO SEE A DIURNAL LULL LATER THURS INTO EARLY FRI...BUT
WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SHOWER CHANCES
WILL EXIST...MAINLY INTO ERN OH. FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO
BUILD OVER THE MS VALLEY...A SFC LOW LIFTS THE BOUNDARY NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A WAVE AT H7 WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AGAIN
FRI...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE. AT THIS
POINT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY HIGH CHC POPS FOCUSED ON THE EARLY
EVENING TIMING OF THE 00Z NAM/ECMWF. PWAT VALUES MAX OUT AROUND 2"
FRIDAY THROUGH ERN OH AND NRN WV ALONG THE CORRIDOR WHERE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. STORM MOTIONS FROM THE 00Z NAM
BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE IN THE 20-30KT RANGE...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD BE
HIGHLY EFFICIENT AND ANY TRAINING COULD LEAD TO WATER PROBLEMS
THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM...GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDING WITH WPC THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE SRN
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SLOWLY SHIFTING THE AXIS INTO OUR
REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY
WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES AS WE SIT ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
A GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE UPPER TROF AXIS WOULD MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A DRYING TREND.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE LOST A LITTLE BIT OF PUNCH BUT CONTINUE TO
WORK THEIR WAY ACROSS THE AREA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF RAIN
IS PRODUCING A 20-30 KNOT GUST AS IT MOVES THROUGH...AND HAVE
TRIED TO HANDLE THIS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MVFR/SPOTTY IFR
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS RAIN BATCH AS IT ACCOMPANIES A
SHORTWAVE. KEPT VCSH BEHIND THE MAIN BATCH WITH REDEVELOPMENT
ACROSS OHIO.

A BRIEF BREAK IN RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z OR SO
LATER THIS MORNING. THEN...DIURNAL INSTABILITY BUILDUP WILL ALLOW
SHRA/TSRA TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT VCTS MENTION AS IT IS STILL
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT LOCATION AND TIMING...ALTHOUGH BRIEF IFR
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE. ACTIVITY STARTS TO CALM DOWN A
BIT AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200754
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
354 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW SPINNING OVER MICHIGAN CURRENTLY...PUSHING A WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD ACROSS PBZ CWA.  FRONT HAS AIDED REDEVELOPMENT OF TSRA
BEHIND INITIAL COMPLEX WHICH HAS WEAKENED.  HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS IN
A FEW SPOTS IN OHIO...ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.  HANGING ON TO
LIKELY POPS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AIDED BY A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL ROTATE THROUGH BY AFTERNOON.  A RELATIVE
LULL IN PRECIPITATION MAY BE SEEN DURING THE LATE MORNING.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL COMBINE WITH
THE BOUNDARY TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LIKELY POPS AREAWIDE.  PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.8
INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL.  TOUGH TO PINPOINT
AREAS THAT HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING WATER PROBLEMS.  WILL
HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN HWO BUT HOLD OFF ON ANY WATCHES AT THIS TIME.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT GIVEN THE UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR
PROFILE.  TRIED TO KEEP HIGH TEMPS ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

ACTIVITY DECREASES SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
AND DEPARTURE OF BETTER UPPER SUPPORT.  WE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE IN
A SHORT DRY PERIOD DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS BEFORE ACTIVITY RAMPS UP
AGAIN SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SFC BNDRY IS THEN PROGGED TO SET UP FM SFC LOW PRES OVR THE UPR
MIDWEST...SEWD INTO THE OH VLY RGN. THIS WL BCM THE FOCUS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS THU THRU FRI. THE BEST UPR SPPRT...SHEAR AND INSTBY IS
PROGGED FOR THU RESULTING IN AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR SVR WEA
MAINLY S AND W OF PIT INVOF THE BNDRY. WITH RATHER HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPECIFIC DETAILS WL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF HWO
FOR NOW. LTL MOVEMENT TO THE BNDRY IS EXPD BY FRI AS THE UPR FLOW
TURNS NW AND BCMS ORIENTED WITH THE BNDRY.

TEMPS WL RMN NR OR A LTL ABV THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES DEPENDENT ON TIMING AND
LOCATION OF ANY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES THRU ERLY NEXT WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED BY TUESDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE LOST A LITTLE BIT OF PUNCH BUT CONTINUE TO
WORK THEIR WAY ACROSS THE AREA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF RAIN
IS PRODUCING A 20-30 KNOT GUST AS IT MOVES THROUGH...AND HAVE
TRIED TO HANDLE THIS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MVFR/SPOTTY IFR
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS RAIN BATCH AS IT ACCOMPANIES A
SHORTWAVE. KEPT VCSH BEHIND THE MAIN BATCH WITH REDEVELOPMENT
ACROSS OHIO.

A BRIEF BREAK IN RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z OR SO
LATER THIS MORNING. THEN...DIURNAL INSTABILITY BUILDUP WILL ALLOW
SHRA/TSRA TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT VCTS MENTION AS IT IS STILL
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT LOCATION AND TIMING...ALTHOUGH BRIEF IFR
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE. ACTIVITY STARTS TO CALM DOWN A
BIT AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200754
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
354 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW SPINNING OVER MICHIGAN CURRENTLY...PUSHING A WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD ACROSS PBZ CWA.  FRONT HAS AIDED REDEVELOPMENT OF TSRA
BEHIND INITIAL COMPLEX WHICH HAS WEAKENED.  HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS IN
A FEW SPOTS IN OHIO...ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.  HANGING ON TO
LIKELY POPS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AIDED BY A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL ROTATE THROUGH BY AFTERNOON.  A RELATIVE
LULL IN PRECIPITATION MAY BE SEEN DURING THE LATE MORNING.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL COMBINE WITH
THE BOUNDARY TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LIKELY POPS AREAWIDE.  PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.8
INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL.  TOUGH TO PINPOINT
AREAS THAT HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING WATER PROBLEMS.  WILL
HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN HWO BUT HOLD OFF ON ANY WATCHES AT THIS TIME.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT GIVEN THE UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR
PROFILE.  TRIED TO KEEP HIGH TEMPS ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

ACTIVITY DECREASES SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
AND DEPARTURE OF BETTER UPPER SUPPORT.  WE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE IN
A SHORT DRY PERIOD DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS BEFORE ACTIVITY RAMPS UP
AGAIN SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SFC BNDRY IS THEN PROGGED TO SET UP FM SFC LOW PRES OVR THE UPR
MIDWEST...SEWD INTO THE OH VLY RGN. THIS WL BCM THE FOCUS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS THU THRU FRI. THE BEST UPR SPPRT...SHEAR AND INSTBY IS
PROGGED FOR THU RESULTING IN AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR SVR WEA
MAINLY S AND W OF PIT INVOF THE BNDRY. WITH RATHER HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPECIFIC DETAILS WL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF HWO
FOR NOW. LTL MOVEMENT TO THE BNDRY IS EXPD BY FRI AS THE UPR FLOW
TURNS NW AND BCMS ORIENTED WITH THE BNDRY.

TEMPS WL RMN NR OR A LTL ABV THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES DEPENDENT ON TIMING AND
LOCATION OF ANY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES THRU ERLY NEXT WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED BY TUESDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE LOST A LITTLE BIT OF PUNCH BUT CONTINUE TO
WORK THEIR WAY ACROSS THE AREA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF RAIN
IS PRODUCING A 20-30 KNOT GUST AS IT MOVES THROUGH...AND HAVE
TRIED TO HANDLE THIS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MVFR/SPOTTY IFR
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS RAIN BATCH AS IT ACCOMPANIES A
SHORTWAVE. KEPT VCSH BEHIND THE MAIN BATCH WITH REDEVELOPMENT
ACROSS OHIO.

A BRIEF BREAK IN RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z OR SO
LATER THIS MORNING. THEN...DIURNAL INSTABILITY BUILDUP WILL ALLOW
SHRA/TSRA TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT VCTS MENTION AS IT IS STILL
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT LOCATION AND TIMING...ALTHOUGH BRIEF IFR
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE. ACTIVITY STARTS TO CALM DOWN A
BIT AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200541
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
141 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE QUIET NIGHT WE HAVE SEEN TO THIS POINT WILL BE UNLIKELY TO
LAST. A SYSTEM CURRENTLY TRAVERSING NORTHERN OHIO IS ALREADY
ADVANCING ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING...
SPREADING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT TO THE WESTERN DOORSTEP
OF THE AREA. WHILE THEY WERE QUITE STRONG EARLIER...RADAR
INDICATIONS FROM KCLE INDICATE THEY ARE ALREADY GUSTING OUT OVER
METROPOLITAN CLEVELAND. AS SUCH...THE COLD POOLS UNDER THE STORMS
ARE NOW OUTRUNNING THE UPDRAFTS...WITH A WEAKENING TREND IN ECHOES
LIKELY TO FOLLOW SHORTLY. WHILE WEAKENING IS IMMINENT...GIVEN
THAT THE MID-LEVEL WAVE DOES MANAGE TO PASS THROUGH THE ENTIRE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...LIKELY POPS WERE RETAINED FOR
VIRTUALLY EVERYWHERE.

THE ONLY OTHER CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT
WAS TO BUMP UP LOWS A BIT...PARTICULARLY IN OHIO. WITH DEWPOINTS
THERE RUNNING IN THE LOWER 70S AND RAIN IMPENDING...A LOWERING OF
DEWPOINTS IS UNLIKELY...WHICH WOULD BE REQUIRED TO REACH OUR
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST LOWS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION-RELATED CLOUD
COVER WILL ADD TO THE PROBLEMS WITH TEMPERATURES REALLY FALLING
VERY MUCH TONIGHT. AS SUCH...LOWER 70S SEEM MOST LIKELY IN MOST OF
OUR OHIO AREAS. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWRS AND TSTMS WL CONT INTO WED UNTIL THE UPR TROF BEGINS TO
SHIFT E OF THE AREA BY EVE. WITH THE BEST UPR SPPRT EXITING IN
THE AFTN...AND UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR...ORGANIZED SVR WEA IS NOT EXPD
ATTM.

A SFC BNDRY IS THEN PROGGED TO SET UP FM SFC LOW PRES OVR THE UPR
MIDWEST...SEWD INTO THE OH VLY RGN. THIS WL BCM THE FOCUS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS THU THRU FRI. THE BEST UPR SPPRT...SHEAR AND INSTBY IS
PROGGED FOR THU RESULTING IN AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR SVR WEA
MAINLY S AND W OF PIT INVOF THE BNDRY. WITH RATHER HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPECIFIC DETAILS WL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF HWO
FOR NOW. LTL MOVEMENT TO THE BNDRY IS EXPD BY FRI AS THE UPR FLOW
TURNS NW AND BCMS ORIENTED WITH THE BNDRY.

TEMPS WL RMN NR OR A LTL ABV THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES DEPENDENT ON TIMING AND
LOCATION OF ANY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES THRU ERLY NEXT WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED BY TUESDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE LOST A LITTLE BIT OF PUNCH BUT CONTINUE TO
WORK THEIR WAY ACROSS THE AREA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF RAIN
IS PRODUCING A 20-30 KNOT GUST AS IT MOVES THROUGH...AND HAVE
TRIED TO HANDLE THIS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MVFR/SPOTTY IFR
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS RAIN BATCH AS IT ACCOMPANIES A
SHORTWAVE. KEPT VCSH BEHIND THE MAIN BATCH WITH REDEVELOPMENT
ACROSS OHIO.

A BRIEF BREAK IN RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z OR SO
LATER THIS MORNING. THEN...DIURNAL INSTABILITY BUILDUP WILL ALLOW
SHRA/TSRA TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT VCTS MENTION AS IT IS STILL
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT LOCATION AND TIMING...ALTHOUGH BRIEF IFR
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE. ACTIVITY STARTS TO CALM DOWN A
BIT AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200541
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
141 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE QUIET NIGHT WE HAVE SEEN TO THIS POINT WILL BE UNLIKELY TO
LAST. A SYSTEM CURRENTLY TRAVERSING NORTHERN OHIO IS ALREADY
ADVANCING ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING...
SPREADING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT TO THE WESTERN DOORSTEP
OF THE AREA. WHILE THEY WERE QUITE STRONG EARLIER...RADAR
INDICATIONS FROM KCLE INDICATE THEY ARE ALREADY GUSTING OUT OVER
METROPOLITAN CLEVELAND. AS SUCH...THE COLD POOLS UNDER THE STORMS
ARE NOW OUTRUNNING THE UPDRAFTS...WITH A WEAKENING TREND IN ECHOES
LIKELY TO FOLLOW SHORTLY. WHILE WEAKENING IS IMMINENT...GIVEN
THAT THE MID-LEVEL WAVE DOES MANAGE TO PASS THROUGH THE ENTIRE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...LIKELY POPS WERE RETAINED FOR
VIRTUALLY EVERYWHERE.

THE ONLY OTHER CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT
WAS TO BUMP UP LOWS A BIT...PARTICULARLY IN OHIO. WITH DEWPOINTS
THERE RUNNING IN THE LOWER 70S AND RAIN IMPENDING...A LOWERING OF
DEWPOINTS IS UNLIKELY...WHICH WOULD BE REQUIRED TO REACH OUR
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST LOWS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION-RELATED CLOUD
COVER WILL ADD TO THE PROBLEMS WITH TEMPERATURES REALLY FALLING
VERY MUCH TONIGHT. AS SUCH...LOWER 70S SEEM MOST LIKELY IN MOST OF
OUR OHIO AREAS. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWRS AND TSTMS WL CONT INTO WED UNTIL THE UPR TROF BEGINS TO
SHIFT E OF THE AREA BY EVE. WITH THE BEST UPR SPPRT EXITING IN
THE AFTN...AND UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR...ORGANIZED SVR WEA IS NOT EXPD
ATTM.

A SFC BNDRY IS THEN PROGGED TO SET UP FM SFC LOW PRES OVR THE UPR
MIDWEST...SEWD INTO THE OH VLY RGN. THIS WL BCM THE FOCUS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS THU THRU FRI. THE BEST UPR SPPRT...SHEAR AND INSTBY IS
PROGGED FOR THU RESULTING IN AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR SVR WEA
MAINLY S AND W OF PIT INVOF THE BNDRY. WITH RATHER HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPECIFIC DETAILS WL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF HWO
FOR NOW. LTL MOVEMENT TO THE BNDRY IS EXPD BY FRI AS THE UPR FLOW
TURNS NW AND BCMS ORIENTED WITH THE BNDRY.

TEMPS WL RMN NR OR A LTL ABV THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES DEPENDENT ON TIMING AND
LOCATION OF ANY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES THRU ERLY NEXT WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED BY TUESDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE LOST A LITTLE BIT OF PUNCH BUT CONTINUE TO
WORK THEIR WAY ACROSS THE AREA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF RAIN
IS PRODUCING A 20-30 KNOT GUST AS IT MOVES THROUGH...AND HAVE
TRIED TO HANDLE THIS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MVFR/SPOTTY IFR
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS RAIN BATCH AS IT ACCOMPANIES A
SHORTWAVE. KEPT VCSH BEHIND THE MAIN BATCH WITH REDEVELOPMENT
ACROSS OHIO.

A BRIEF BREAK IN RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z OR SO
LATER THIS MORNING. THEN...DIURNAL INSTABILITY BUILDUP WILL ALLOW
SHRA/TSRA TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT VCTS MENTION AS IT IS STILL
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT LOCATION AND TIMING...ALTHOUGH BRIEF IFR
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE. ACTIVITY STARTS TO CALM DOWN A
BIT AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200141
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
941 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE QUIET NIGHT WE HAVE SEEN TO THIS POINT WILL BE UNLIKELY TO
LAST. A SYSTEM CURRENTLY TRAVERSING NORTHERN OHIO IS ALREADY
ADVANCING ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING...
SPREADING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT TO THE WESTERN DOORSTEP
OF THE AREA. WHILE THEY WERE QUITE STRONG EARLIER...RADAR
INDICATIONS FROM KCLE INDICATE THEY ARE ALREADY GUSTING OUT OVER
METROPOLITAN CLEVELAND. AS SUCH...THE COLD POOLS UNDER THE STORMS
ARE NOW OUTRUNNING THE UPDRAFTS...WITH A WEAKENING TREND IN ECHOES
LIKELY TO FOLLOW SHORTLY. WHILE WEAKENING IS IMMINENT...GIVEN
THAT THE MID-LEVEL WAVE DOES MANAGE TO PASS THROUGH THE ENTIRE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...LIKELY POPS WERE RETAINED FOR
VIRTUALLY EVERYWHERE.

THE ONLY OTHER CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT
WAS TO BUMP UP LOWS A BIT...PARTICULARLY IN OHIO. WITH DEWPOINTS
THERE RUNNING IN THE LOWER 70S AND RAIN IMPENDING...A LOWERING OF
DEWPOINTS IS UNLIKELY...WHICH WOULD BE REQUIRED TO REACH OUR
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST LOWS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION-RELATED CLOUD
COVER WILL ADD TO THE PROBLEMS WITH TEMPERATURES REALLY FALLING
VERY MUCH TONIGHT. AS SUCH...LOWER 70S SEEM MOST LIKELY IN MOST OF
OUR OHIO AREAS. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWRS AND TSTMS WL CONT INTO WED UNTIL THE UPR TROF BEGINS TO
SHIFT E OF THE AREA BY EVE. WITH THE BEST UPR SPPRT EXITING IN
THE AFTN...AND UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR...ORGANIZED SVR WEA IS NOT EXPD
ATTM.

A SFC BNDRY IS THEN PROGGED TO SET UP FM SFC LOW PRES OVR THE UPR
MIDWEST...SEWD INTO THE OH VLY RGN. THIS WL BCM THE FOCUS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS THU THRU FRI. THE BEST UPR SPPRT...SHEAR AND INSTBY IS
PROGGED FOR THU RESULTING IN AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR SVR WEA
MAINLY S AND W OF PIT INVOF THE BNDRY. WITH RATHER HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPECIFIC DETAILS WL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF HWO
FOR NOW. LTL MOVEMENT TO THE BNDRY IS EXPD BY FRI AS THE UPR FLOW
TURNS NW AND BCMS ORIENTED WITH THE BNDRY.

TEMPS WL RMN NR OR A LTL ABV THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES DEPENDENT ON TIMING AND
LOCATION OF ANY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES THRU ERLY NEXT WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED BY TUESDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL APPROACH LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF SHOWERS WITH THE LINE RAPIDLY APPROACHING
AND WILL LIKELY ADD TEMPO GROUPS FOR THUNDER...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SITES NORTH AND WEST OF PIT...SHORTLY. EXPECT BRIEF RESTRICTIONS TO
OCCUR IN ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT IMPACTS A TAF SITE BUT GENERALLY
STAYED AT VFR UNTIL THE LINE PASSES. THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR
FURTHER CIG AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE IN THE SITES THAT CLEAR
OUT BEHIND THE LINE BEFORE SUNRISE...WHICH FOR NOW IS
KZZV...KFKL...AND KHLG.

A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES WITH HEATING.
GENERALLY HELD EVERYONE TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW WITH VCTS
MENTIONED FOR THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE
EAST.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200141
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
941 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE QUIET NIGHT WE HAVE SEEN TO THIS POINT WILL BE UNLIKELY TO
LAST. A SYSTEM CURRENTLY TRAVERSING NORTHERN OHIO IS ALREADY
ADVANCING ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING...
SPREADING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT TO THE WESTERN DOORSTEP
OF THE AREA. WHILE THEY WERE QUITE STRONG EARLIER...RADAR
INDICATIONS FROM KCLE INDICATE THEY ARE ALREADY GUSTING OUT OVER
METROPOLITAN CLEVELAND. AS SUCH...THE COLD POOLS UNDER THE STORMS
ARE NOW OUTRUNNING THE UPDRAFTS...WITH A WEAKENING TREND IN ECHOES
LIKELY TO FOLLOW SHORTLY. WHILE WEAKENING IS IMMINENT...GIVEN
THAT THE MID-LEVEL WAVE DOES MANAGE TO PASS THROUGH THE ENTIRE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...LIKELY POPS WERE RETAINED FOR
VIRTUALLY EVERYWHERE.

THE ONLY OTHER CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT
WAS TO BUMP UP LOWS A BIT...PARTICULARLY IN OHIO. WITH DEWPOINTS
THERE RUNNING IN THE LOWER 70S AND RAIN IMPENDING...A LOWERING OF
DEWPOINTS IS UNLIKELY...WHICH WOULD BE REQUIRED TO REACH OUR
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST LOWS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION-RELATED CLOUD
COVER WILL ADD TO THE PROBLEMS WITH TEMPERATURES REALLY FALLING
VERY MUCH TONIGHT. AS SUCH...LOWER 70S SEEM MOST LIKELY IN MOST OF
OUR OHIO AREAS. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWRS AND TSTMS WL CONT INTO WED UNTIL THE UPR TROF BEGINS TO
SHIFT E OF THE AREA BY EVE. WITH THE BEST UPR SPPRT EXITING IN
THE AFTN...AND UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR...ORGANIZED SVR WEA IS NOT EXPD
ATTM.

A SFC BNDRY IS THEN PROGGED TO SET UP FM SFC LOW PRES OVR THE UPR
MIDWEST...SEWD INTO THE OH VLY RGN. THIS WL BCM THE FOCUS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS THU THRU FRI. THE BEST UPR SPPRT...SHEAR AND INSTBY IS
PROGGED FOR THU RESULTING IN AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR SVR WEA
MAINLY S AND W OF PIT INVOF THE BNDRY. WITH RATHER HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPECIFIC DETAILS WL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF HWO
FOR NOW. LTL MOVEMENT TO THE BNDRY IS EXPD BY FRI AS THE UPR FLOW
TURNS NW AND BCMS ORIENTED WITH THE BNDRY.

TEMPS WL RMN NR OR A LTL ABV THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES DEPENDENT ON TIMING AND
LOCATION OF ANY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES THRU ERLY NEXT WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED BY TUESDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL APPROACH LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF SHOWERS WITH THE LINE RAPIDLY APPROACHING
AND WILL LIKELY ADD TEMPO GROUPS FOR THUNDER...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SITES NORTH AND WEST OF PIT...SHORTLY. EXPECT BRIEF RESTRICTIONS TO
OCCUR IN ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT IMPACTS A TAF SITE BUT GENERALLY
STAYED AT VFR UNTIL THE LINE PASSES. THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR
FURTHER CIG AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE IN THE SITES THAT CLEAR
OUT BEHIND THE LINE BEFORE SUNRISE...WHICH FOR NOW IS
KZZV...KFKL...AND KHLG.

A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES WITH HEATING.
GENERALLY HELD EVERYONE TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW WITH VCTS
MENTIONED FOR THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE
EAST.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200040
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
840 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A BIT OF A CAP ON MODEL SOUNDINGS COMBINED WITH MEAGER SHEAR IN
THE 0-6 KM LAYER HAVE ALLOWED FOR EXCEEDINGLY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTIVE AND EVEN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE EVENING WEARS ON SURFACE-
BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD WANE...WITH CLEARING LIKELY ACROSS THE
BOARD FOR A BIT IN ALL SECTIONS OF THE CWA.

THE QUIET NIGHT WILL BE UNLIKE TO LAST. A SYSTEM CURRENTLY
TRAVERSING LOWER MICHIGAN WILL ADVANCE TOWARD THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...SPREADING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION.
WHILE THEY ARE QUITE STRONG AT THE MOMENT...POOR TIMING DURING THE
DIURNAL CYCLE...UNFAVORABLE INSTABILITY PROFILES AND STILL RATHER
UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR OVERNIGHT MEANS THEY WILL BE UNLIKELY TO
MAINTAIN THEIR CURRENT INTENSITY AS THEY APPROACH THE REGION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE MID-LEVEL WAVE DOES MANAGED TO PASS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...LIKELY POPS
WERE RETAINED FOR VIRTUALLY EVERYWHERE...JUST WITH A BIT LATER
TIMING THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY CARRIED.

BEFORE THE WAVE ARRIVES...SKIES WERE CLEARED EVERYWHERE WITH A
BEAUTIFUL SUNSET IN STORE AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL
WET WEATHER LOOKS TO BE AHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWRS AND TSTMS WL CONT INTO WED UNTIL THE UPR TROF BEGINS TO
SHIFT E OF THE AREA BY EVE. WITH THE BEST UPR SPPRT EXITING IN
THE AFTN...AND UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR...ORGANIZED SVR WEA IS NOT EXPD
ATTM.

A SFC BNDRY IS THEN PROGGED TO SET UP FM SFC LOW PRES OVR THE UPR
MIDWEST...SEWD INTO THE OH VLY RGN. THIS WL BCM THE FOCUS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS THU THRU FRI. THE BEST UPR SPPRT...SHEAR AND INSTBY IS
PROGGED FOR THU RESULTING IN AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR SVR WEA
MAINLY S AND W OF PIT INVOF THE BNDRY. WITH RATHER HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPECIFIC DETAILS WL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF HWO
FOR NOW. LTL MOVEMENT TO THE BNDRY IS EXPD BY FRI AS THE UPR FLOW
TURNS NW AND BCMS ORIENTED WITH THE BNDRY.

TEMPS WL RMN NR OR A LTL ABV THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES DEPENDENT ON TIMING AND
LOCATION OF ANY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES THRU ERLY NEXT WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED BY TUESDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL APPROACH LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF SHOWERS WITH THE LINE RAPIDLY APPROACHING
AND WILL LIKELY ADD TEMPO GROUPS FOR THUNDER...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SITES NORTH AND WEST OF PIT...SHORTLY. EXPECT BRIEF RESTRICTIONS TO
OCCUR IN ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT IMPACTS A TAF SITE BUT GENERALLY
STAYED AT VFR UNTIL THE LINE PASSES. THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR
FURTHER CIG AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE IN THE SITES THAT CLEAR
OUT BEHIND THE LINE BEFORE SUNRISE...WHICH FOR NOW IS
KZZV...KFKL...AND KHLG.

A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES WITH HEATING.
GENERALLY HELD EVERYONE TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW WITH VCTS
MENTIONED FOR THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE
EAST.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200040
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
840 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A BIT OF A CAP ON MODEL SOUNDINGS COMBINED WITH MEAGER SHEAR IN
THE 0-6 KM LAYER HAVE ALLOWED FOR EXCEEDINGLY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTIVE AND EVEN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE EVENING WEARS ON SURFACE-
BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD WANE...WITH CLEARING LIKELY ACROSS THE
BOARD FOR A BIT IN ALL SECTIONS OF THE CWA.

THE QUIET NIGHT WILL BE UNLIKE TO LAST. A SYSTEM CURRENTLY
TRAVERSING LOWER MICHIGAN WILL ADVANCE TOWARD THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...SPREADING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION.
WHILE THEY ARE QUITE STRONG AT THE MOMENT...POOR TIMING DURING THE
DIURNAL CYCLE...UNFAVORABLE INSTABILITY PROFILES AND STILL RATHER
UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR OVERNIGHT MEANS THEY WILL BE UNLIKELY TO
MAINTAIN THEIR CURRENT INTENSITY AS THEY APPROACH THE REGION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE MID-LEVEL WAVE DOES MANAGED TO PASS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...LIKELY POPS
WERE RETAINED FOR VIRTUALLY EVERYWHERE...JUST WITH A BIT LATER
TIMING THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY CARRIED.

BEFORE THE WAVE ARRIVES...SKIES WERE CLEARED EVERYWHERE WITH A
BEAUTIFUL SUNSET IN STORE AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL
WET WEATHER LOOKS TO BE AHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWRS AND TSTMS WL CONT INTO WED UNTIL THE UPR TROF BEGINS TO
SHIFT E OF THE AREA BY EVE. WITH THE BEST UPR SPPRT EXITING IN
THE AFTN...AND UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR...ORGANIZED SVR WEA IS NOT EXPD
ATTM.

A SFC BNDRY IS THEN PROGGED TO SET UP FM SFC LOW PRES OVR THE UPR
MIDWEST...SEWD INTO THE OH VLY RGN. THIS WL BCM THE FOCUS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS THU THRU FRI. THE BEST UPR SPPRT...SHEAR AND INSTBY IS
PROGGED FOR THU RESULTING IN AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR SVR WEA
MAINLY S AND W OF PIT INVOF THE BNDRY. WITH RATHER HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPECIFIC DETAILS WL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF HWO
FOR NOW. LTL MOVEMENT TO THE BNDRY IS EXPD BY FRI AS THE UPR FLOW
TURNS NW AND BCMS ORIENTED WITH THE BNDRY.

TEMPS WL RMN NR OR A LTL ABV THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES DEPENDENT ON TIMING AND
LOCATION OF ANY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES THRU ERLY NEXT WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED BY TUESDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL APPROACH LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF SHOWERS WITH THE LINE RAPIDLY APPROACHING
AND WILL LIKELY ADD TEMPO GROUPS FOR THUNDER...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SITES NORTH AND WEST OF PIT...SHORTLY. EXPECT BRIEF RESTRICTIONS TO
OCCUR IN ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT IMPACTS A TAF SITE BUT GENERALLY
STAYED AT VFR UNTIL THE LINE PASSES. THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR
FURTHER CIG AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE IN THE SITES THAT CLEAR
OUT BEHIND THE LINE BEFORE SUNRISE...WHICH FOR NOW IS
KZZV...KFKL...AND KHLG.

A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES WITH HEATING.
GENERALLY HELD EVERYONE TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW WITH VCTS
MENTIONED FOR THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE
EAST.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 192238
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
638 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A BIT OF A CAP ON MODEL SOUNDINGS COMBINED WITH MEAGER SHEAR IN
THE 0-6 KM LAYER HAVE ALLOWED FOR EXCEEDINGLY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTIVE AND EVEN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE EVENING WEARS ON
...SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD WANE...WITH CLEARING LIKELY
ACROSS THE BOARD FOR A BIT IN ALL SECTIONS OF THE CWA.

THE QUIET NIGHT WILL BE UNLIKE TO LAST. A SYSTEM CURRENTLY
TRAVERSING LOWER MICHIGAN WILL ADVANCE TOWARD THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...SPREADING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION.
WHILE THEY ARE QUITE STRONG AT THE MOMENT...POOR TIMING DURING THE
DIURNAL CYCLE...UNFAVORABLE INSTABILITY PROFILES AND STILL RATHER
UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR OVERNIGHT MEANS THEY WILL BE UNLIKELY TO
MAINTAIN THEIR CURRENT INTENSITY AS THEY APPROACH THE REGION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE MID-LEVEL WAVE DOES MANAGED TO PASS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...LIKELY POPS
WERE RETAINED FOR VIRTUALLY EVERYWHERE...JUST WITH A BIT LATER
TIMING THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY CARRIED.

BEFORE THE WAVE ARRIVES...SKIES WERE CLEARED EVERYWHERE WITH A
BEAUTIFUL SUNSET IN STORE AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL
WET WEATHER LOOKS TO BE AHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWRS AND TSTMS WL CONT INTO WED UNTIL THE UPR TROF BEGINS TO
SHIFT E OF THE AREA BY EVE. WITH THE BEST UPR SPPRT EXITING IN
THE AFTN...AND UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR...ORGANIZED SVR WEA IS NOT EXPD
ATTM.

A SFC BNDRY IS THEN PROGGED TO SET UP FM SFC LOW PRES OVR THE UPR
MIDWEST...SEWD INTO THE OH VLY RGN. THIS WL BCM THE FOCUS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS THU THRU FRI. THE BEST UPR SPPRT...SHEAR AND INSTBY IS
PROGGED FOR THU RESULTING IN AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR SVR WEA
MAINLY S AND W OF PIT INVOF THE BNDRY. WITH RATHER HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPECIFIC DETAILS WL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF HWO
FOR NOW. LTL MOVEMENT TO THE BNDRY IS EXPD BY FRI AS THE UPR FLOW
TURNS NW AND BCMS ORIENTED WITH THE BNDRY.

TEMPS WL RMN NR OR A LTL ABV THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES DEPENDENT ON TIMING AND
LOCATION OF ANY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES THRU ERLY NEXT WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED BY TUESDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY AND THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE A DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST PASSES OVERHEAD AND BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OPTED TO MAINTAIN VCSH IN
LATEST TAFS FOR NOW UNTIL THIS FEATURE TRANSITIONS FURTHER EAST AND
FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 192238
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
638 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A BIT OF A CAP ON MODEL SOUNDINGS COMBINED WITH MEAGER SHEAR IN
THE 0-6 KM LAYER HAVE ALLOWED FOR EXCEEDINGLY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTIVE AND EVEN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE EVENING WEARS ON
...SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD WANE...WITH CLEARING LIKELY
ACROSS THE BOARD FOR A BIT IN ALL SECTIONS OF THE CWA.

THE QUIET NIGHT WILL BE UNLIKE TO LAST. A SYSTEM CURRENTLY
TRAVERSING LOWER MICHIGAN WILL ADVANCE TOWARD THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...SPREADING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION.
WHILE THEY ARE QUITE STRONG AT THE MOMENT...POOR TIMING DURING THE
DIURNAL CYCLE...UNFAVORABLE INSTABILITY PROFILES AND STILL RATHER
UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR OVERNIGHT MEANS THEY WILL BE UNLIKELY TO
MAINTAIN THEIR CURRENT INTENSITY AS THEY APPROACH THE REGION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE MID-LEVEL WAVE DOES MANAGED TO PASS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...LIKELY POPS
WERE RETAINED FOR VIRTUALLY EVERYWHERE...JUST WITH A BIT LATER
TIMING THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY CARRIED.

BEFORE THE WAVE ARRIVES...SKIES WERE CLEARED EVERYWHERE WITH A
BEAUTIFUL SUNSET IN STORE AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL
WET WEATHER LOOKS TO BE AHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWRS AND TSTMS WL CONT INTO WED UNTIL THE UPR TROF BEGINS TO
SHIFT E OF THE AREA BY EVE. WITH THE BEST UPR SPPRT EXITING IN
THE AFTN...AND UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR...ORGANIZED SVR WEA IS NOT EXPD
ATTM.

A SFC BNDRY IS THEN PROGGED TO SET UP FM SFC LOW PRES OVR THE UPR
MIDWEST...SEWD INTO THE OH VLY RGN. THIS WL BCM THE FOCUS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS THU THRU FRI. THE BEST UPR SPPRT...SHEAR AND INSTBY IS
PROGGED FOR THU RESULTING IN AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR SVR WEA
MAINLY S AND W OF PIT INVOF THE BNDRY. WITH RATHER HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPECIFIC DETAILS WL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF HWO
FOR NOW. LTL MOVEMENT TO THE BNDRY IS EXPD BY FRI AS THE UPR FLOW
TURNS NW AND BCMS ORIENTED WITH THE BNDRY.

TEMPS WL RMN NR OR A LTL ABV THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES DEPENDENT ON TIMING AND
LOCATION OF ANY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES THRU ERLY NEXT WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED BY TUESDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY AND THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE A DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST PASSES OVERHEAD AND BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OPTED TO MAINTAIN VCSH IN
LATEST TAFS FOR NOW UNTIL THIS FEATURE TRANSITIONS FURTHER EAST AND
FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191909
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
309 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A WK MID LVL TROF PRODUCING SCT SHWRS/TSTMS E OF PIT WL EXIT THE
RGN THIS EVE. ANOTHER SHRTWV WL ADVN ACRS THE GT LKS AND UPR OH
VLY RGN TNGT BRINGING SHWRS/TSTMS. MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS TNGT FOR
MOST OF THE AREA WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND UPR SPPRT. THE TSTMS
SHOULD OUTRUN THE BEST INSTBY TO OUR W AND WKN AS THEY APCH. EXP
LOWS A FEW DEG ABV AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWRS AND TSTMS WL CONT INTO WED UNTIL THE SHRTWV BEGINS TO SHIFT
E OF THE AREA BY AFTN. WITH THE BEST UPR SPPRT EXITING IN THE
AFTN...AND UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR...ORGANIZED SVR WEA IS NOT EXPD
ATTM.

A SFC BNDRY IS THEN PROGGED TO SET UP FM SFC LOW PRES OVR THE UPR
MIDWEST...SEWD INTO THE OH VLY RGN. THIS WL BCM THE FOCUS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS THU THRU FRI. THE BEST UPR SPPRT...SHEAR AND INSTBY IS
PROGGED FOR THU RESULTING IN AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR SVR WEA
MAINLY S AND W OF PIT INVOF THE BNDRY. WITH RATHER HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPECIFIC DETAILS WL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF HWO
FOR NOW. LTL MOVEMENT TO THE BNDRY IS EXPD BY FRI AS THE UPR FLOW
TURNS NW AND BCMS ORIENTED WITH THE BNDRY.

TEMPS WL RMN NR OR A LTL ABV THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES DEPENDENT ON TIMING AND
LOCATION OF ANY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES THRU ERLY NEXT WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED BY TUESDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY AND THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE A DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST PASSES OVERHEAD AND BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OPTED TO MAINTAIN VCSH IN
LATEST TAFS FOR NOW UNTIL THIS FEATURE TRANSITIONS FURTHER EAST AND
FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/88







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191909
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
309 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A WK MID LVL TROF PRODUCING SCT SHWRS/TSTMS E OF PIT WL EXIT THE
RGN THIS EVE. ANOTHER SHRTWV WL ADVN ACRS THE GT LKS AND UPR OH
VLY RGN TNGT BRINGING SHWRS/TSTMS. MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS TNGT FOR
MOST OF THE AREA WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND UPR SPPRT. THE TSTMS
SHOULD OUTRUN THE BEST INSTBY TO OUR W AND WKN AS THEY APCH. EXP
LOWS A FEW DEG ABV AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWRS AND TSTMS WL CONT INTO WED UNTIL THE SHRTWV BEGINS TO SHIFT
E OF THE AREA BY AFTN. WITH THE BEST UPR SPPRT EXITING IN THE
AFTN...AND UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR...ORGANIZED SVR WEA IS NOT EXPD
ATTM.

A SFC BNDRY IS THEN PROGGED TO SET UP FM SFC LOW PRES OVR THE UPR
MIDWEST...SEWD INTO THE OH VLY RGN. THIS WL BCM THE FOCUS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS THU THRU FRI. THE BEST UPR SPPRT...SHEAR AND INSTBY IS
PROGGED FOR THU RESULTING IN AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR SVR WEA
MAINLY S AND W OF PIT INVOF THE BNDRY. WITH RATHER HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPECIFIC DETAILS WL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF HWO
FOR NOW. LTL MOVEMENT TO THE BNDRY IS EXPD BY FRI AS THE UPR FLOW
TURNS NW AND BCMS ORIENTED WITH THE BNDRY.

TEMPS WL RMN NR OR A LTL ABV THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES DEPENDENT ON TIMING AND
LOCATION OF ANY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES THRU ERLY NEXT WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED BY TUESDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY AND THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE A DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST PASSES OVERHEAD AND BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OPTED TO MAINTAIN VCSH IN
LATEST TAFS FOR NOW UNTIL THIS FEATURE TRANSITIONS FURTHER EAST AND
FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/88






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191747
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
217 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WK MD LVL TROF...ALG WITH TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT...CONT TO PRODUCE
ISOLD SHWRS E OF PIT. ADDNL CNVCTN WL BE PSBL THRU THE DAY IN THIS
SAME AREA AS THE TROF SHIFTS E...WITH MRNG RAOBS SHOWING TOO MUCH
CAPPING FOR CNVCTN FURTHER W. RAOBS SPPRT HIGH TEMPS A LTL ABV THE
SEASONAL AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE AN MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME TONIGHT.
DO FEEL THAT MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE NAM...MAY BE OVERPLAYING
THE INTENSITY OF THE COMPLEX AND MAY BE A BIT FAST. SEEING A LOT
OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE NAM QPF SOLUTIONS LIKELY DUE TO THE
FORECASTED INTENSITY OF THE SHORTWAVE. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE THE REAL JUICY AIR REMAINS
TO THE WEST ON THE OTHER SIDE OF A STALLED BOUNDARY. IN THE
SMALLER SCALE...NAM IS SHOWING VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND FORCING RIGHT AHEAD OF THE WAVE...LEADING ME TO
BELIEVE THAT IT IS TRYING TO FORCE THE BOUNDARY EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT FRONTAL INFLUENCE WILL WEAKEN AS IT RUNS
INTO LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE FROM EASTERN HIGH. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN FUTURE FORECASTS. FEEL MARGINALLY
CONFIDENT THAT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH... BUT AT THIS
POINT...WILL NOT OVERPLAY A SEVERE THREAT AND HAVE LARGE
RESERVATIONS ON THE CORRECT TIMING. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH HOW THE
AIR-MASS EVOLVES TODAY. IF THE HIGH SURFACE TDS DO MAKE IT FURTHER
EAST...HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE A THREAT OVERNIGHT.

WAVE MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING THE JUICY AIR TO THE
WEST TO SHIFT EASTWARD. ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES IN RESPONSE TO
THIS CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. IT IS LIKELY
THAT A BOUNDARY WILL BE LAYING OUT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THIS WOULD BE THE FOCUS OF ACTIVITY. A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL NOT PROVIDE ANY PROTECTION FROM CONVECTION AND A LATE
DAY/EVENING WAVE WILL ONLY INCREASE THE THREAT. STILL HAVE
HESITATIONS ON LOCATION AND TIMING OF ANY WAVE THAT FAR OUT.

ACTIVITY SHOULD QUIET WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

REALLY LOOKS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD ON THURSDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN (ALOFT OR AT THE SURFACE).

HUMID AND WARM BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST UNTIL PERHAPS SUNDAY WHEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MAY BE ABLE TO EJECT STUBBORN FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEPENDENT ON TIMING
AND LOCATION OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED SOMETIME MONDAY WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BRING A CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY AND THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE A DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST PASSES OVERHEAD AND BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OPTED TO MAINTAIN VCSH IN
LATEST TAFS FOR NOW UNTIL THIS FEATURE TRANSITIONS FURTHER EAST AND
FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191747
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
217 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WK MD LVL TROF...ALG WITH TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT...CONT TO PRODUCE
ISOLD SHWRS E OF PIT. ADDNL CNVCTN WL BE PSBL THRU THE DAY IN THIS
SAME AREA AS THE TROF SHIFTS E...WITH MRNG RAOBS SHOWING TOO MUCH
CAPPING FOR CNVCTN FURTHER W. RAOBS SPPRT HIGH TEMPS A LTL ABV THE
SEASONAL AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE AN MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME TONIGHT.
DO FEEL THAT MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE NAM...MAY BE OVERPLAYING
THE INTENSITY OF THE COMPLEX AND MAY BE A BIT FAST. SEEING A LOT
OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE NAM QPF SOLUTIONS LIKELY DUE TO THE
FORECASTED INTENSITY OF THE SHORTWAVE. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE THE REAL JUICY AIR REMAINS
TO THE WEST ON THE OTHER SIDE OF A STALLED BOUNDARY. IN THE
SMALLER SCALE...NAM IS SHOWING VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND FORCING RIGHT AHEAD OF THE WAVE...LEADING ME TO
BELIEVE THAT IT IS TRYING TO FORCE THE BOUNDARY EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT FRONTAL INFLUENCE WILL WEAKEN AS IT RUNS
INTO LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE FROM EASTERN HIGH. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN FUTURE FORECASTS. FEEL MARGINALLY
CONFIDENT THAT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH... BUT AT THIS
POINT...WILL NOT OVERPLAY A SEVERE THREAT AND HAVE LARGE
RESERVATIONS ON THE CORRECT TIMING. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH HOW THE
AIR-MASS EVOLVES TODAY. IF THE HIGH SURFACE TDS DO MAKE IT FURTHER
EAST...HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE A THREAT OVERNIGHT.

WAVE MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING THE JUICY AIR TO THE
WEST TO SHIFT EASTWARD. ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES IN RESPONSE TO
THIS CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. IT IS LIKELY
THAT A BOUNDARY WILL BE LAYING OUT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THIS WOULD BE THE FOCUS OF ACTIVITY. A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL NOT PROVIDE ANY PROTECTION FROM CONVECTION AND A LATE
DAY/EVENING WAVE WILL ONLY INCREASE THE THREAT. STILL HAVE
HESITATIONS ON LOCATION AND TIMING OF ANY WAVE THAT FAR OUT.

ACTIVITY SHOULD QUIET WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

REALLY LOOKS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD ON THURSDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN (ALOFT OR AT THE SURFACE).

HUMID AND WARM BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST UNTIL PERHAPS SUNDAY WHEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MAY BE ABLE TO EJECT STUBBORN FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEPENDENT ON TIMING
AND LOCATION OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED SOMETIME MONDAY WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BRING A CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY AND THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE A DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST PASSES OVERHEAD AND BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OPTED TO MAINTAIN VCSH IN
LATEST TAFS FOR NOW UNTIL THIS FEATURE TRANSITIONS FURTHER EAST AND
FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191518
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1118 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WK MD LVL TROF...ALG WITH TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT...CONT TO PRODUCE
ISOLD SHWRS E OF PIT. ADDNL CNVCTN WL BE PSBL THRU THE DAY IN THIS
SAME AREA AS THE TROF SHIFTS E...WITH MRNG RAOBS SHOWING TOO MUCH
CAPPING FOR CNVCTN FURTHER W. RAOBS SPPRT HIGH TEMPS A LTL ABV THE
SEASONAL AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE AN MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME TONIGHT.
DO FEEL THAT MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE NAM...MAY BE OVERPLAYING
THE INTENSITY OF THE COMPLEX AND MAY BE A BIT FAST. SEEING A LOT
OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE NAM QPF SOLUTIONS LIKELY DUE TO THE
FORECASTED INTENSITY OF THE SHORTWAVE. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE THE REAL JUICY AIR REMAINS
TO THE WEST ON THE OTHER SIDE OF A STALLED BOUNDARY. IN THE
SMALLER SCALE...NAM IS SHOWING VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND FORCING RIGHT AHEAD OF THE WAVE...LEADING ME TO
BELIEVE THAT IT IS TRYING TO FORCE THE BOUNDARY EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT FRONTAL INFLUENCE WILL WEAKEN AS IT RUNS
INTO LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE FROM EASTERN HIGH. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN FUTURE FORECASTS. FEEL MARGINALLY
CONFIDENT THAT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH... BUT AT THIS
POINT...WILL NOT OVERPLAY A SEVERE THREAT AND HAVE LARGE
RESERVATIONS ON THE CORRECT TIMING. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH HOW THE
AIR-MASS EVOLVES TODAY. IF THE HIGH SURFACE TDS DO MAKE IT FURTHER
EAST...HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE A THREAT OVERNIGHT.

WAVE MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING THE JUICY AIR TO THE
WEST TO SHIFT EASTWARD. ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES IN RESPONSE TO
THIS CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. IT IS LIKELY
THAT A BOUNDARY WILL BE LAYING OUT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THIS WOULD BE THE FOCUS OF ACTIVITY. A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL NOT PROVIDE ANY PROTECTION FROM CONVECTION AND A LATE
DAY/EVENING WAVE WILL ONLY INCREASE THE THREAT. STILL HAVE
HESITATIONS ON LOCATION AND TIMING OF ANY WAVE THAT FAR OUT.

ACTIVITY SHOULD QUIET WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

REALLY LOOKS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD ON THURSDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN (ALOFT OR AT THE SURFACE).

HUMID AND WARM BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST UNTIL PERHAPS SUNDAY WHEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MAY BE ABLE TO EJECT STUBBORN FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEPENDENT ON TIMING
AND LOCATION OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED SOMETIME MONDAY WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BRING A CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENL VFR WITH LGT SFC WND WL DOMINATE THE DAY...HOWEVER CONDITION
DETERIORATION SHOULD BE EXPECTED TNGT AS AN APCHG SHRTWV IS LIKELY
TO SPAWNS SHWRS AND TSTMS.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191318
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
918 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WK MD LVL TROF...ALG WITH TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT...WAS PRODUCING
ISOLD SHWRS E OF PIT. ADDNL CNVCTN WL BE PSBL THRU THIS AFTN IN
THIS SAME AREA AS THE TROF SHIFTS E...WITH MRNG RAOBS SHOWING TOO
MUCH CAPPING FOR CNVCTN FURTHER W. RAOBS SPPRT HIGH TEMPS A LTL
ABV THE SEASONAL AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE AN MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME TONIGHT.
DO FEEL THAT MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE NAM...MAY BE OVERPLAYING
THE INTENSITY OF THE COMPLEX AND MAY BE A BIT FAST. SEEING A LOT
OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE NAM QPF SOLUTIONS LIKELY DUE TO THE
FORECASTED INTENSITY OF THE SHORTWAVE. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE THE REAL JUICY AIR REMAINS
TO THE WEST ON THE OTHER SIDE OF A STALLED BOUNDARY. IN THE
SMALLER SCALE...NAM IS SHOWING VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND FORCING RIGHT AHEAD OF THE WAVE...LEADING ME TO
BELIEVE THAT IT IS TRYING TO FORCE THE BOUNDARY EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT FRONTAL INFLUENCE WILL WEAKEN AS IT RUNS
INTO LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE FROM EASTERN HIGH. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN FUTURE FORECASTS. FEEL MARGINALLY
CONFIDENT THAT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH... BUT AT THIS
POINT...WILL NOT OVERPLAY A SEVERE THREAT AND HAVE LARGE
RESERVATIONS ON THE CORRECT TIMING. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH HOW THE
AIR-MASS EVOLVES TODAY. IF THE HIGH SURFACE TDS DO MAKE IT FURTHER
EAST...HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE A THREAT OVERNIGHT.

WAVE MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING THE JUICY AIR TO THE
WEST TO SHIFT EASTWARD. ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES IN RESPONSE TO
THIS CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. IT IS LIKELY
THAT A BOUNDARY WILL BE LAYING OUT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THIS WOULD BE THE FOCUS OF ACTIVITY. A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL NOT PROVIDE ANY PROTECTION FROM CONVECTION AND A LATE
DAY/EVENING WAVE WILL ONLY INCREASE THE THREAT. STILL HAVE
HESITATIONS ON LOCATION AND TIMING OF ANY WAVE THAT FAR OUT.

ACTIVITY SHOULD QUIET WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

REALLY LOOKS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD ON THURSDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN (ALOFT OR AT THE SURFACE).

HUMID AND WARM BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST UNTIL PERHAPS SUNDAY WHEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MAY BE ABLE TO EJECT STUBBORN FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEPENDENT ON TIMING
AND LOCATION OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED SOMETIME MONDAY WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BRING A CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENL VFR WITH LGT SFC WND WL DOMINATE THE DAY...HOWEVER CONDITION
DETERIORATION SHOULD BE EXPECTED TNGT AS AN APCHG SHRTWV IS LIKELY
TO SPAWNS SHWRS AND TSTMS.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191318
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
918 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WK MD LVL TROF...ALG WITH TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT...WAS PRODUCING
ISOLD SHWRS E OF PIT. ADDNL CNVCTN WL BE PSBL THRU THIS AFTN IN
THIS SAME AREA AS THE TROF SHIFTS E...WITH MRNG RAOBS SHOWING TOO
MUCH CAPPING FOR CNVCTN FURTHER W. RAOBS SPPRT HIGH TEMPS A LTL
ABV THE SEASONAL AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE AN MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME TONIGHT.
DO FEEL THAT MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE NAM...MAY BE OVERPLAYING
THE INTENSITY OF THE COMPLEX AND MAY BE A BIT FAST. SEEING A LOT
OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE NAM QPF SOLUTIONS LIKELY DUE TO THE
FORECASTED INTENSITY OF THE SHORTWAVE. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE THE REAL JUICY AIR REMAINS
TO THE WEST ON THE OTHER SIDE OF A STALLED BOUNDARY. IN THE
SMALLER SCALE...NAM IS SHOWING VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND FORCING RIGHT AHEAD OF THE WAVE...LEADING ME TO
BELIEVE THAT IT IS TRYING TO FORCE THE BOUNDARY EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT FRONTAL INFLUENCE WILL WEAKEN AS IT RUNS
INTO LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE FROM EASTERN HIGH. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN FUTURE FORECASTS. FEEL MARGINALLY
CONFIDENT THAT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH... BUT AT THIS
POINT...WILL NOT OVERPLAY A SEVERE THREAT AND HAVE LARGE
RESERVATIONS ON THE CORRECT TIMING. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH HOW THE
AIR-MASS EVOLVES TODAY. IF THE HIGH SURFACE TDS DO MAKE IT FURTHER
EAST...HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE A THREAT OVERNIGHT.

WAVE MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING THE JUICY AIR TO THE
WEST TO SHIFT EASTWARD. ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES IN RESPONSE TO
THIS CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. IT IS LIKELY
THAT A BOUNDARY WILL BE LAYING OUT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THIS WOULD BE THE FOCUS OF ACTIVITY. A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL NOT PROVIDE ANY PROTECTION FROM CONVECTION AND A LATE
DAY/EVENING WAVE WILL ONLY INCREASE THE THREAT. STILL HAVE
HESITATIONS ON LOCATION AND TIMING OF ANY WAVE THAT FAR OUT.

ACTIVITY SHOULD QUIET WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

REALLY LOOKS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD ON THURSDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN (ALOFT OR AT THE SURFACE).

HUMID AND WARM BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST UNTIL PERHAPS SUNDAY WHEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MAY BE ABLE TO EJECT STUBBORN FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEPENDENT ON TIMING
AND LOCATION OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED SOMETIME MONDAY WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BRING A CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENL VFR WITH LGT SFC WND WL DOMINATE THE DAY...HOWEVER CONDITION
DETERIORATION SHOULD BE EXPECTED TNGT AS AN APCHG SHRTWV IS LIKELY
TO SPAWNS SHWRS AND TSTMS.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191021
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
621 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE DAWN UPDATE.

PREVIOUS...
APPEARS MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE QUIET WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
NO UPPER LEVEL WAVES EXPECTED. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGES WITH UP-SLOPE FLOW. HIRES MODELS ARE
HINTING AT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...WILL NEED TO INCLUDE POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE AN MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME TONIGHT.
DO FEEL THAT MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE NAM...MAY BE OVERPLAYING
THE INTENSITY OF THE COMPLEX AND MAY BE A BIT FAST. SEEING A LOT
OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE NAM QPF SOLUTIONS LIKELY DUE TO THE
FORECASTED INTENSITY OF THE SHORTWAVE. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE THE REAL JUICY AIR REMAINS
TO THE WEST ON THE OTHER SIDE OF A STALLED BOUNDARY. IN THE
SMALLER SCALE...NAM IS SHOWING VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND FORCING RIGHT AHEAD OF THE WAVE...LEADING ME TO
BELIEVE THAT IT IS TRYING TO FORCE THE BOUNDARY EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT FRONTAL INFLUENCE WILL WEAKEN AS IT RUNS
INTO LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE FROM EASTERN HIGH. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN FUTURE FORECASTS. FEEL MARGINALLY
CONFIDENT THAT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH... BUT AT THIS
POINT...WILL NOT OVERPLAY A SEVERE THREAT AND HAVE LARGE
RESERVATIONS ON THE CORRECT TIMING. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH HOW THE
AIR-MASS EVOLVES TODAY. IF THE HIGH SURFACE TDS DO MAKE IT FURTHER
EAST...HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE A THREAT OVERNIGHT.

WAVE MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING THE JUICY AIR TO THE
WEST TO SHIFT EASTWARD. ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES IN RESPONSE TO
THIS CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. IT IS LIKELY
THAT A BOUNDARY WILL BE LAYING OUT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THIS WOULD BE THE FOCUS OF ACTIVITY. A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL NOT PROVIDE ANY PROTECTION FROM CONVECTION AND A LATE
DAY/EVENING WAVE WILL ONLY INCREASE THE THREAT. STILL HAVE
HESITATIONS ON LOCATION AND TIMING OF ANY WAVE THAT FAR OUT.

ACTIVITY SHOULD QUIET WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

REALLY LOOKS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD ON THURSDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN (ALOFT OR AT THE SURFACE).

HUMID AND WARM BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST UNTIL PERHAPS SUNDAY WHEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MAY BE ABLE TO EJECT STUBBORN FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEPENDENT ON TIMING
AND LOCATION OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED SOMETIME MONDAY WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BRING A CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STUBBORN MID LVL CLDINESS PRECLUDED SIGNIFICANT FOG DVLPMNT THIS
MRNG AND ANY PATCHY FORMATIONS WL QUICKLY MIX OUT AFTR AS THE SUN
ASCENDS. GENL VFR WITH LGT SFC WND WL DOMINATE THE DAY...HOWEVER
CONDITION DETERIORATION SHOULD BE EXPECTED TNGT AS AN APCHG SHRTWV
IS LIKELY TO SPAWNS SHWRS AND TSTMS.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/22





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191021
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
621 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE DAWN UPDATE.

PREVIOUS...
APPEARS MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE QUIET WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
NO UPPER LEVEL WAVES EXPECTED. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGES WITH UP-SLOPE FLOW. HIRES MODELS ARE
HINTING AT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...WILL NEED TO INCLUDE POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE AN MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME TONIGHT.
DO FEEL THAT MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE NAM...MAY BE OVERPLAYING
THE INTENSITY OF THE COMPLEX AND MAY BE A BIT FAST. SEEING A LOT
OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE NAM QPF SOLUTIONS LIKELY DUE TO THE
FORECASTED INTENSITY OF THE SHORTWAVE. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE THE REAL JUICY AIR REMAINS
TO THE WEST ON THE OTHER SIDE OF A STALLED BOUNDARY. IN THE
SMALLER SCALE...NAM IS SHOWING VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND FORCING RIGHT AHEAD OF THE WAVE...LEADING ME TO
BELIEVE THAT IT IS TRYING TO FORCE THE BOUNDARY EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT FRONTAL INFLUENCE WILL WEAKEN AS IT RUNS
INTO LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE FROM EASTERN HIGH. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN FUTURE FORECASTS. FEEL MARGINALLY
CONFIDENT THAT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH... BUT AT THIS
POINT...WILL NOT OVERPLAY A SEVERE THREAT AND HAVE LARGE
RESERVATIONS ON THE CORRECT TIMING. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH HOW THE
AIR-MASS EVOLVES TODAY. IF THE HIGH SURFACE TDS DO MAKE IT FURTHER
EAST...HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE A THREAT OVERNIGHT.

WAVE MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING THE JUICY AIR TO THE
WEST TO SHIFT EASTWARD. ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES IN RESPONSE TO
THIS CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. IT IS LIKELY
THAT A BOUNDARY WILL BE LAYING OUT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THIS WOULD BE THE FOCUS OF ACTIVITY. A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL NOT PROVIDE ANY PROTECTION FROM CONVECTION AND A LATE
DAY/EVENING WAVE WILL ONLY INCREASE THE THREAT. STILL HAVE
HESITATIONS ON LOCATION AND TIMING OF ANY WAVE THAT FAR OUT.

ACTIVITY SHOULD QUIET WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

REALLY LOOKS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD ON THURSDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN (ALOFT OR AT THE SURFACE).

HUMID AND WARM BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST UNTIL PERHAPS SUNDAY WHEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MAY BE ABLE TO EJECT STUBBORN FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEPENDENT ON TIMING
AND LOCATION OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED SOMETIME MONDAY WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BRING A CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STUBBORN MID LVL CLDINESS PRECLUDED SIGNIFICANT FOG DVLPMNT THIS
MRNG AND ANY PATCHY FORMATIONS WL QUICKLY MIX OUT AFTR AS THE SUN
ASCENDS. GENL VFR WITH LGT SFC WND WL DOMINATE THE DAY...HOWEVER
CONDITION DETERIORATION SHOULD BE EXPECTED TNGT AS AN APCHG SHRTWV
IS LIKELY TO SPAWNS SHWRS AND TSTMS.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/22






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190808
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
408 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
APPEARS MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE QUIET WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
NO UPPER LEVEL WAVES EXPECTED. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGES WITH UP-SLOPE FLOW. HIRES MODELS ARE
HINTING AT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...WILL NEED TO INCLUDE POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE AN MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME TONIGHT.
DO FEEL THAT MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE NAM...MAY BE OVERPLAYING
THE INTENSITY OF THE COMPLEX AND MAY BE A BIT FAST. SEEING A LOT
OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE NAM QPF SOLUTIONS LIKELY DUE TO THE
FORECASTED INTENSITY OF THE SHORTWAVE. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE THE REAL JUICY AIR REMAINS
TO THE WEST ON THE OTHER SIDE OF A STALLED BOUNDARY. IN THE
SMALLER SCALE...NAM IS SHOWING VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND FORCING RIGHT AHEAD OF THE WAVE...LEADING ME TO
BELIEVE THAT IT IS TRYING TO FORCE THE BOUNDARY EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT FRONTAL INFLUENCE WILL WEAKEN AS IT RUNS
INTO LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE FROM EASTERN HIGH. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN FUTURE FORECASTS. FEEL MARGINALLY
CONFIDENT THAT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH... BUT AT THIS
POINT...WILL NOT OVERPLAY A SEVERE THREAT AND HAVE LARGE
RESERVATIONS ON THE CORRECT TIMING. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH HOW THE
AIR-MASS EVOLVES TODAY. IF THE HIGH SURFACE TDS DO MAKE IT FURTHER
EAST...HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE A THREAT OVERNIGHT.

WAVE MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING THE JUICY AIR TO THE
WEST TO SHIFT EASTWARD. ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES IN RESPONSE TO
THIS CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. IT IS LIKELY
THAT A BOUNDARY WILL BE LAYING OUT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THIS WOULD BE THE FOCUS OF ACTIVITY. A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL NOT PROVIDE ANY PROTECTION FROM CONVECTION AND A LATE
DAY/EVENING WAVE WILL ONLY INCREASE THE THREAT. STILL HAVE
HESITATIONS ON LOCATION AND TIMING OF ANY WAVE THAT FAR OUT.

ACTIVITY SHOULD QUIET WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

REALLY LOOKS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD ON THURSDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN (ALOFT OR AT THE SURFACE).

HUMID AND WARM BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST UNTIL PERHAPS SUNDAY WHEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MAY BE ABLE TO EJECT STUBBORN FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEPENDENT ON TIMING
AND LOCATION OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED SOMETIME MONDAY WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BRING A CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR FOG IS FORECAST AT ALL PORTS THIS MRNG WITH MDL SNDINGS
INDICATING A POSITIVE BNDRY LYR HYDROLAPSE WITH A WEAK SFC FLOW AND
A CLEARING SKY.

THEREAFTER...GENERAL VFR WL RAPIDLY DVLP AFTR DAYBREAK...BUT
CONDITION DETERIORATION SHOULD BE EXPECTED TNGT AS AN APCHG SHRTWV
SPAWNS SHWRS AND TSTMS.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190808
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
408 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
APPEARS MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE QUIET WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
NO UPPER LEVEL WAVES EXPECTED. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGES WITH UP-SLOPE FLOW. HIRES MODELS ARE
HINTING AT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...WILL NEED TO INCLUDE POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE AN MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME TONIGHT.
DO FEEL THAT MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE NAM...MAY BE OVERPLAYING
THE INTENSITY OF THE COMPLEX AND MAY BE A BIT FAST. SEEING A LOT
OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE NAM QPF SOLUTIONS LIKELY DUE TO THE
FORECASTED INTENSITY OF THE SHORTWAVE. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE THE REAL JUICY AIR REMAINS
TO THE WEST ON THE OTHER SIDE OF A STALLED BOUNDARY. IN THE
SMALLER SCALE...NAM IS SHOWING VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND FORCING RIGHT AHEAD OF THE WAVE...LEADING ME TO
BELIEVE THAT IT IS TRYING TO FORCE THE BOUNDARY EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT FRONTAL INFLUENCE WILL WEAKEN AS IT RUNS
INTO LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE FROM EASTERN HIGH. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN FUTURE FORECASTS. FEEL MARGINALLY
CONFIDENT THAT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH... BUT AT THIS
POINT...WILL NOT OVERPLAY A SEVERE THREAT AND HAVE LARGE
RESERVATIONS ON THE CORRECT TIMING. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH HOW THE
AIR-MASS EVOLVES TODAY. IF THE HIGH SURFACE TDS DO MAKE IT FURTHER
EAST...HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE A THREAT OVERNIGHT.

WAVE MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING THE JUICY AIR TO THE
WEST TO SHIFT EASTWARD. ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES IN RESPONSE TO
THIS CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. IT IS LIKELY
THAT A BOUNDARY WILL BE LAYING OUT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THIS WOULD BE THE FOCUS OF ACTIVITY. A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL NOT PROVIDE ANY PROTECTION FROM CONVECTION AND A LATE
DAY/EVENING WAVE WILL ONLY INCREASE THE THREAT. STILL HAVE
HESITATIONS ON LOCATION AND TIMING OF ANY WAVE THAT FAR OUT.

ACTIVITY SHOULD QUIET WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

REALLY LOOKS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD ON THURSDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN (ALOFT OR AT THE SURFACE).

HUMID AND WARM BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST UNTIL PERHAPS SUNDAY WHEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MAY BE ABLE TO EJECT STUBBORN FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEPENDENT ON TIMING
AND LOCATION OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED SOMETIME MONDAY WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BRING A CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR FOG IS FORECAST AT ALL PORTS THIS MRNG WITH MDL SNDINGS
INDICATING A POSITIVE BNDRY LYR HYDROLAPSE WITH A WEAK SFC FLOW AND
A CLEARING SKY.

THEREAFTER...GENERAL VFR WL RAPIDLY DVLP AFTR DAYBREAK...BUT
CONDITION DETERIORATION SHOULD BE EXPECTED TNGT AS AN APCHG SHRTWV
SPAWNS SHWRS AND TSTMS.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190504 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
104 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SOME MINOR CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT. INCREASED CLOUD COVER WITH MODELS
SHOWING AN INCREASE IN LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE. STARTING TO SEE
THIS ON LATEST SAT PICS. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND TEMPS WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE.

APPEARS MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE QUIET WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
NO UPPER LEVEL WAVES EXPECTED. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGES WITH UP-SLOPE FLOW. HIRES MODELS ARE
HINTING AT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...WILL NEED TO INCLUDE POPS. WILL BRING A SLOW
INCREASE IN POPS TO THE REST OF THE AREA VERY LATE IN THE DAY AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN MCS DEVELOPING TO THE WEST WITH THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE AN MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. DO FEEL
THAT MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE NAM...MAY BE OVERPLAYING THE
INTENSITY OF THE COMPLEX AND MAY BE JUST A BIT FAST. SEEING A LOT
OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE NAM QPF SOLUTIONS LIKELY DUE TO THE
FORECASTED INTENSITY OF THE SHORTWAVE. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE THE REAL JUICY AIR REMAINS
TO THE WEST ON THE OTHER SIDE OF A STALLED BOUNDARY. IN THE
SMALLER SCALE...NAM IS SHOWING VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND FORCING RIGHT AHEAD OF THE WAVE...LEADING ME TO
BELIEVE THAT IT IS TRYING TO FORCE THE BOUNDARY EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT FRONTAL INFLUENCE WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY
AS IT RUNS INTO LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE FROM EASTERN HIGH. WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN FUTURE FORECASTS. FEEL
MARGINALLY CONFIDENT THAT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH...
BUT AT THIS POINT...WILL NOT OVERPLAY A SEVERE THREAT. WILL ALSO
NEED TO WATCH HOW THE AIR-MASS EVOLVES TODAY. IF THE HIGH SURFACE
TDS DO MAKE IT FURTHER EAST...HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE A THREAT
OVERNIGHT.

WAVE MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING THE JUICY AIR TO THE
WEST TO SHIFT EASTWARD. ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES IN RESPONSE TO
THIS CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. IT IS LIKELY
THAT A BOUNDARY WILL BE LAYING OUT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THIS WOULD BE THE FOCUS OF ACTIVITY. A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL NOT PROVIDE ANY PROTECTION FROM CONVECTION AND A LATE
DAY/EVENING WAVE WILL ONLY INCREASE THE THREAT. STILL HAVE
HESITATIONS ON LOCATION AND TIMING OF ANY WAVE THAT FAR OUT.

ACTIVITY SHOULD QUIET WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

REALLY LOOKS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD ON THURSDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN (ALOFT OR AT THE SURFACE).

HUMID AND WARM BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST UNTIL PERHAPS SUNDAY WHEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MAY BE ABLE TO EJECT STUBBORN FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEPENDENT ON TIMING
AND LOCATION OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED SOMETIME MONDAY WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BRING A CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR FOG IS FORECAST AT ALL PORTS THIS MRNG WITH MDL SNDINGS
INDICATING A POSITIVE BNDRY LYR HYDROLAPSE WITH A WEAK SFC FLOW AND
A CLEARING SKY.

THEREAFTER...GENERAL VFR WL RAPIDLY DVLP AFTR DAYBREAK...BUT
CONDITION DETERIORATION SHOULD BE EXPECTED TNGT AS AN APCHG SHRTWV
SPAWNS SHWRS AND TSTMS.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190504 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
104 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SOME MINOR CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT. INCREASED CLOUD COVER WITH MODELS
SHOWING AN INCREASE IN LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE. STARTING TO SEE
THIS ON LATEST SAT PICS. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND TEMPS WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE.

APPEARS MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE QUIET WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
NO UPPER LEVEL WAVES EXPECTED. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGES WITH UP-SLOPE FLOW. HIRES MODELS ARE
HINTING AT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...WILL NEED TO INCLUDE POPS. WILL BRING A SLOW
INCREASE IN POPS TO THE REST OF THE AREA VERY LATE IN THE DAY AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN MCS DEVELOPING TO THE WEST WITH THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE AN MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. DO FEEL
THAT MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE NAM...MAY BE OVERPLAYING THE
INTENSITY OF THE COMPLEX AND MAY BE JUST A BIT FAST. SEEING A LOT
OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE NAM QPF SOLUTIONS LIKELY DUE TO THE
FORECASTED INTENSITY OF THE SHORTWAVE. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE THE REAL JUICY AIR REMAINS
TO THE WEST ON THE OTHER SIDE OF A STALLED BOUNDARY. IN THE
SMALLER SCALE...NAM IS SHOWING VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND FORCING RIGHT AHEAD OF THE WAVE...LEADING ME TO
BELIEVE THAT IT IS TRYING TO FORCE THE BOUNDARY EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT FRONTAL INFLUENCE WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY
AS IT RUNS INTO LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE FROM EASTERN HIGH. WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN FUTURE FORECASTS. FEEL
MARGINALLY CONFIDENT THAT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH...
BUT AT THIS POINT...WILL NOT OVERPLAY A SEVERE THREAT. WILL ALSO
NEED TO WATCH HOW THE AIR-MASS EVOLVES TODAY. IF THE HIGH SURFACE
TDS DO MAKE IT FURTHER EAST...HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE A THREAT
OVERNIGHT.

WAVE MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING THE JUICY AIR TO THE
WEST TO SHIFT EASTWARD. ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES IN RESPONSE TO
THIS CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. IT IS LIKELY
THAT A BOUNDARY WILL BE LAYING OUT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THIS WOULD BE THE FOCUS OF ACTIVITY. A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL NOT PROVIDE ANY PROTECTION FROM CONVECTION AND A LATE
DAY/EVENING WAVE WILL ONLY INCREASE THE THREAT. STILL HAVE
HESITATIONS ON LOCATION AND TIMING OF ANY WAVE THAT FAR OUT.

ACTIVITY SHOULD QUIET WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

REALLY LOOKS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD ON THURSDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN (ALOFT OR AT THE SURFACE).

HUMID AND WARM BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST UNTIL PERHAPS SUNDAY WHEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MAY BE ABLE TO EJECT STUBBORN FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEPENDENT ON TIMING
AND LOCATION OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED SOMETIME MONDAY WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BRING A CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR FOG IS FORECAST AT ALL PORTS THIS MRNG WITH MDL SNDINGS
INDICATING A POSITIVE BNDRY LYR HYDROLAPSE WITH A WEAK SFC FLOW AND
A CLEARING SKY.

THEREAFTER...GENERAL VFR WL RAPIDLY DVLP AFTR DAYBREAK...BUT
CONDITION DETERIORATION SHOULD BE EXPECTED TNGT AS AN APCHG SHRTWV
SPAWNS SHWRS AND TSTMS.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190207
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1007 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS IN THE DEFORMATION FIELD SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRINGING FAR SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN MARYLAND
SHOULD GRADUALLY FADE AS UPPER SUPPORT CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE
EAST. WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE LARGELY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...DEEP MOISTURE REALLY IS LACKING FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. AS SUCH...CLEARING IS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT
RAINED TODAY. FOG WAS ADDED...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS AS WELL AS RIVER VALLEYS. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MUCH OF TUE SHOULD BE DRY WITH A LACK OF ANY SHRTWVS...THOUGH SOME
AFTN POP UP CNVCTN IS PSBL. THE BEST CHC FOR SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD BE
TUE NGT INTO WED AS SHRTWV ADVNS ACRS THE GT LKS AND UPR OH VLY
RGN. BY MID WK...AN UPR LOW WL DRIFT ACRS THE GT LKS RGN WITH SVRL
DISTURBANCES ROTATING ARND IT. THIS WL KEEP SHWR/TSTM CHCS IN THE
FCST...THOUGH SOME DIURNAL TRENDS IN PCPN COVG IS EXPD. AFT WED...
WENT NO HIGHER THAN CHC POPS WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE
INDIVIDUAL WAVES. TEMPS SHOULD AVG NR OR SLGTLY ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
ZONAL FLOW WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BRINGING THE RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. STILL SEEING MODEL INCONSISTENCIES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND... SO FORECASTING TIMING AND LOCATION OF ACTIVITY IS DONE
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE RIDGES THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD PRIMARILY
IMPACT MGW EARLY...WHILE ALL OTHER SITES REMAIN VFR. CLOUD
COVERAGE AND WIND SHOULD DECREASE OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER
NIGHT FOR FOG...WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING.
MAINTAINED THE IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN IFR AT PIT IS NOT HIGH. FOG SHOULD LIFT TOWARD 14Z
TUESDAY WITH GENERAL VFR EXPECTED REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190207
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1007 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS IN THE DEFORMATION FIELD SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRINGING FAR SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN MARYLAND
SHOULD GRADUALLY FADE AS UPPER SUPPORT CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE
EAST. WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE LARGELY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...DEEP MOISTURE REALLY IS LACKING FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. AS SUCH...CLEARING IS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT
RAINED TODAY. FOG WAS ADDED...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS AS WELL AS RIVER VALLEYS. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MUCH OF TUE SHOULD BE DRY WITH A LACK OF ANY SHRTWVS...THOUGH SOME
AFTN POP UP CNVCTN IS PSBL. THE BEST CHC FOR SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD BE
TUE NGT INTO WED AS SHRTWV ADVNS ACRS THE GT LKS AND UPR OH VLY
RGN. BY MID WK...AN UPR LOW WL DRIFT ACRS THE GT LKS RGN WITH SVRL
DISTURBANCES ROTATING ARND IT. THIS WL KEEP SHWR/TSTM CHCS IN THE
FCST...THOUGH SOME DIURNAL TRENDS IN PCPN COVG IS EXPD. AFT WED...
WENT NO HIGHER THAN CHC POPS WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE
INDIVIDUAL WAVES. TEMPS SHOULD AVG NR OR SLGTLY ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
ZONAL FLOW WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BRINGING THE RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. STILL SEEING MODEL INCONSISTENCIES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND... SO FORECASTING TIMING AND LOCATION OF ACTIVITY IS DONE
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE RIDGES THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD PRIMARILY
IMPACT MGW EARLY...WHILE ALL OTHER SITES REMAIN VFR. CLOUD
COVERAGE AND WIND SHOULD DECREASE OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER
NIGHT FOR FOG...WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING.
MAINTAINED THE IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN IFR AT PIT IS NOT HIGH. FOG SHOULD LIFT TOWARD 14Z
TUESDAY WITH GENERAL VFR EXPECTED REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 182341
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
741 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS IN THE DEFORMATION FIELD SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRINGING FAR SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN MARYLAND
SHOULD GRADUALLY FADE AS UPPER SUPPORT CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE
EAST. WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE LARGELY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...DEEP MOISTURE REALLY IS LACKING FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. AS SUCH...CLEARING IS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT
RAINED TODAY.  FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MUCH OF TUE SHOULD BE DRY WITH A LACK OF ANY SHRTWVS...THOUGH SOME
AFTN POP UP CNVCTN IS PSBL. THE BEST CHC FOR SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD BE
TUE NGT INTO WED AS SHRTWV ADVNS ACRS THE GT LKS AND UPR OH VLY
RGN. BY MID WK...AN UPR LOW WL DRIFT ACRS THE GT LKS RGN WITH SVRL
DISTURBANCES ROTATING ARND IT. THIS WL KEEP SHWR/TSTM CHCS IN THE
FCST...THOUGH SOME DIURNAL TRENDS IN PCPN COVG IS EXPD. AFT WED...
WENT NO HIGHER THAN CHC POPS WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE
INDIVIDUAL WAVES. TEMPS SHOULD AVG NR OR SLGTLY ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
ZONAL FLOW WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BRINGING THE RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. STILL SEEING MODEL INCONSISTENCIES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND... SO FORECASTING TIMING AND LOCATION OF ACTIVITY IS DONE
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE RIDGES THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD PRIMARILY
IMPACT MGW EARLY...WHILE ALL OTHER SITES REMAIN VFR. CLOUD
COVERAGE AND WIND SHOULD DECREASE OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER
NIGHT FOR FOG...WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING.
MAINTAINED THE IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN IFR AT PIT IS NOT HIGH. FOG SHOULD LIFT TOWARD 14Z
TUESDAY WITH GENERAL VFR EXPECTED REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 182341
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
741 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS IN THE DEFORMATION FIELD SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRINGING FAR SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN MARYLAND
SHOULD GRADUALLY FADE AS UPPER SUPPORT CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE
EAST. WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE LARGELY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...DEEP MOISTURE REALLY IS LACKING FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. AS SUCH...CLEARING IS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT
RAINED TODAY.  FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MUCH OF TUE SHOULD BE DRY WITH A LACK OF ANY SHRTWVS...THOUGH SOME
AFTN POP UP CNVCTN IS PSBL. THE BEST CHC FOR SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD BE
TUE NGT INTO WED AS SHRTWV ADVNS ACRS THE GT LKS AND UPR OH VLY
RGN. BY MID WK...AN UPR LOW WL DRIFT ACRS THE GT LKS RGN WITH SVRL
DISTURBANCES ROTATING ARND IT. THIS WL KEEP SHWR/TSTM CHCS IN THE
FCST...THOUGH SOME DIURNAL TRENDS IN PCPN COVG IS EXPD. AFT WED...
WENT NO HIGHER THAN CHC POPS WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE
INDIVIDUAL WAVES. TEMPS SHOULD AVG NR OR SLGTLY ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
ZONAL FLOW WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BRINGING THE RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. STILL SEEING MODEL INCONSISTENCIES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND... SO FORECASTING TIMING AND LOCATION OF ACTIVITY IS DONE
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE RIDGES THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD PRIMARILY
IMPACT MGW EARLY...WHILE ALL OTHER SITES REMAIN VFR. CLOUD
COVERAGE AND WIND SHOULD DECREASE OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER
NIGHT FOR FOG...WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING.
MAINTAINED THE IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN IFR AT PIT IS NOT HIGH. FOG SHOULD LIFT TOWARD 14Z
TUESDAY WITH GENERAL VFR EXPECTED REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 182305
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
705 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS IN THE DEFORMATION FIELD SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRINGING FAR SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN MARYLAND
SHOULD GRADUALLY FADE AS UPPER SUPPORT CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE
EAST. WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE LARGELY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...DEEP MOISTURE REALLY IS LACKING FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. AS SUCH...CLEARING IS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT
RAINED TODAY.  FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MUCH OF TUE SHOULD BE DRY WITH A LACK OF ANY SHRTWVS...THOUGH SOME
AFTN POP UP CNVCTN IS PSBL. THE BEST CHC FOR SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD BE
TUE NGT INTO WED AS SHRTWV ADVNS ACRS THE GT LKS AND UPR OH VLY
RGN. BY MID WK...AN UPR LOW WL DRIFT ACRS THE GT LKS RGN WITH SVRL
DISTURBANCES ROTATING ARND IT. THIS WL KEEP SHWR/TSTM CHCS IN THE
FCST...THOUGH SOME DIURNAL TRENDS IN PCPN COVG IS EXPD. AFT WED...
WENT NO HIGHER THAN CHC POPS WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE
INDIVIDUAL WAVES. TEMPS SHOULD AVG NR OR SLGTLY ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
ZONAL FLOW WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BRINGING THE RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. STILL SEEING MODEL INCONSISTENCIES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND... SO FORECASTING TIMING AND LOCATION OF ACTIVITY IS DONE
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRAY SHOWERS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
WEST VIRGINIA FOR KMGW...OTHERWISE GENERAL VFR INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
ANOTHER CALM NIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW MID CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATION FOG TO ONCE AGAIN FORM 06-08Z AND HAVE GONE WITH A
BROAD BRUSH IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT TO BE REFINED BY LATER TAF
ISSUANCE. FOG WILL LIFT TOWARD 14Z TUESDAY WITH GENERAL VFR
EXPECTED REMAINDER OF TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WKND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 182305
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
705 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS IN THE DEFORMATION FIELD SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRINGING FAR SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN MARYLAND
SHOULD GRADUALLY FADE AS UPPER SUPPORT CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE
EAST. WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE LARGELY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...DEEP MOISTURE REALLY IS LACKING FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. AS SUCH...CLEARING IS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT
RAINED TODAY.  FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MUCH OF TUE SHOULD BE DRY WITH A LACK OF ANY SHRTWVS...THOUGH SOME
AFTN POP UP CNVCTN IS PSBL. THE BEST CHC FOR SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD BE
TUE NGT INTO WED AS SHRTWV ADVNS ACRS THE GT LKS AND UPR OH VLY
RGN. BY MID WK...AN UPR LOW WL DRIFT ACRS THE GT LKS RGN WITH SVRL
DISTURBANCES ROTATING ARND IT. THIS WL KEEP SHWR/TSTM CHCS IN THE
FCST...THOUGH SOME DIURNAL TRENDS IN PCPN COVG IS EXPD. AFT WED...
WENT NO HIGHER THAN CHC POPS WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE
INDIVIDUAL WAVES. TEMPS SHOULD AVG NR OR SLGTLY ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
ZONAL FLOW WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BRINGING THE RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. STILL SEEING MODEL INCONSISTENCIES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND... SO FORECASTING TIMING AND LOCATION OF ACTIVITY IS DONE
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRAY SHOWERS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
WEST VIRGINIA FOR KMGW...OTHERWISE GENERAL VFR INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
ANOTHER CALM NIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW MID CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATION FOG TO ONCE AGAIN FORM 06-08Z AND HAVE GONE WITH A
BROAD BRUSH IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT TO BE REFINED BY LATER TAF
ISSUANCE. FOG WILL LIFT TOWARD 14Z TUESDAY WITH GENERAL VFR
EXPECTED REMAINDER OF TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WKND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








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