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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 171022
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
622 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE PREDAWN UPDATE WERE TWEAKS TO HOURLY
TRENDS OF TEMPS AND WIND.

PREVIOUS...
A COMBINATION OF A SURFACE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT...WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
A MOISTURE STARVED COOL FRONT AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD ON
PRECIP CHANCES. MAIN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITHIN THE HEIGHT FALLS
SHIFTS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. MOISTURE AT THE
LOWEST LAYERS IS SPARSE AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LOSES MUCH OF ITS
STRUCTURE WITH LITTLE SUPPORT. HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE AREA DRY
WITH THIS FEATURE. TEMPS CONTINUE TO MODERATE FRIDAY.

A BIT OF A COOL DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS WEAK CAA WILL
TAKE PLACE BEHIND THE COOL FRONT. SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN
QUICKLY ON SATURDAY...KEEPING THE AREA DRY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DRY AND WARM PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING THE RISK
FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY. A BIT OF A COOL DOWN BY THE END OF THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH VFR WL CONT FOR THE TAF PD...NEW ENGLAND HIGH AND WRN GREAT
LAKES LOW WL SPPRT SUSTAINED SELY SFC WIND NR 10 KTS TDA.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENL IFR IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 171022
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
622 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE PREDAWN UPDATE WERE TWEAKS TO HOURLY
TRENDS OF TEMPS AND WIND.

PREVIOUS...
A COMBINATION OF A SURFACE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT...WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
A MOISTURE STARVED COOL FRONT AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD ON
PRECIP CHANCES. MAIN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITHIN THE HEIGHT FALLS
SHIFTS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. MOISTURE AT THE
LOWEST LAYERS IS SPARSE AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LOSES MUCH OF ITS
STRUCTURE WITH LITTLE SUPPORT. HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE AREA DRY
WITH THIS FEATURE. TEMPS CONTINUE TO MODERATE FRIDAY.

A BIT OF A COOL DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS WEAK CAA WILL
TAKE PLACE BEHIND THE COOL FRONT. SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN
QUICKLY ON SATURDAY...KEEPING THE AREA DRY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DRY AND WARM PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING THE RISK
FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY. A BIT OF A COOL DOWN BY THE END OF THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH VFR WL CONT FOR THE TAF PD...NEW ENGLAND HIGH AND WRN GREAT
LAKES LOW WL SPPRT SUSTAINED SELY SFC WIND NR 10 KTS TDA.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENL IFR IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 170812
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
412 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A
WEAK SYSTEM WILL THEN PASS TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COMBINATION OF A SURFACE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT...WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
A MOISTURE STARVED COOL FRONT AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD ON
PRECIP CHANCES. MAIN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITHIN THE HEIGHT FALLS
SHIFTS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. MOISTURE AT THE
LOWEST LAYERS IS SPARSE AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LOSES MUCH OF ITS
STRUCTURE WITH LITTLE SUPPORT. HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE AREA DRY
WITH THIS FEATURE. TEMPS CONTINUE TO MODERATE FRIDAY.

A BIT OF A COOL DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS WEAK CAA WILL
TAKE PLACE BEHIND THE COOL FRONT. SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN
QUICKLY ON SATURDAY...KEEPING THE AREA DRY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DRY AND WARM PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING THE RISK
FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY. A BIT OF A COOL DOWN BY THE END OF THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH VFR WL CONT WITH HIGH PRES CNTRED OVR THE NERN CONUS...LGT
ELY SFC WIND WL VEER TO THE SE TDA AND INCRS TWD 10 KTS AS LOW PRES
DIGS OVR THE WRN LAKES.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NXT CHC OF RSTRNS WL COME WITH THE ADVN AND PASSAGE OF A FRIDAY
NGT CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 170812
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
412 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A
WEAK SYSTEM WILL THEN PASS TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COMBINATION OF A SURFACE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT...WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
A MOISTURE STARVED COOL FRONT AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD ON
PRECIP CHANCES. MAIN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITHIN THE HEIGHT FALLS
SHIFTS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. MOISTURE AT THE
LOWEST LAYERS IS SPARSE AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LOSES MUCH OF ITS
STRUCTURE WITH LITTLE SUPPORT. HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE AREA DRY
WITH THIS FEATURE. TEMPS CONTINUE TO MODERATE FRIDAY.

A BIT OF A COOL DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS WEAK CAA WILL
TAKE PLACE BEHIND THE COOL FRONT. SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN
QUICKLY ON SATURDAY...KEEPING THE AREA DRY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DRY AND WARM PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING THE RISK
FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY. A BIT OF A COOL DOWN BY THE END OF THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH VFR WL CONT WITH HIGH PRES CNTRED OVR THE NERN CONUS...LGT
ELY SFC WIND WL VEER TO THE SE TDA AND INCRS TWD 10 KTS AS LOW PRES
DIGS OVR THE WRN LAKES.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NXT CHC OF RSTRNS WL COME WITH THE ADVN AND PASSAGE OF A FRIDAY
NGT CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 170458 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1258 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A
WEAK SYSTEM WILL THEN PASS TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. INCREASED CLOUDS A TOUCH
WITH CIRRUS SHIELD PASSING OVER.

A COMBINATION OF A SURFACE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT...WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
A MOISTURE STARVED COOL FRONT AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD ON
PRECIP CHANCES. MAIN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITHIN THE HEIGHT FALLS
SHIFTS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. MOISTURE AT THE
LOWEST LAYERS IS SPARSE AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LOSES MUCH OF ITS
STRUCTURE WITH LITTLE SUPPORT. HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE AREA DRY
WITH THIS FEATURE. TEMPS CONTINUE TO MODERATE FRIDAY.

A BIT OF A COOL DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS WEAK CAA WILL
TAKE PLACE BEHIND THE COOL FRONT. SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN
QUICKLY ON SATURDAY...KEEPING THE AREA DRY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DRY AND WARM PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING THE RISK
FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY. A BIT OF A COOL DOWN BY THE END OF THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH VFR WL CONT WITH HIGH PRES CNTRED OVR THE NERN CONUS...LGT
ELY SFC WIND WL VEER TO THE SE TDA AND INCRS TWD 10 KTS AS LOW PRES
DIGS OVR THE WRN LAKES.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NXT CHC OF RSTRNS WL COME WITH THE ADVN AND PASSAGE OF A FRIDAY
NGT CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 170458 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1258 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A
WEAK SYSTEM WILL THEN PASS TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. INCREASED CLOUDS A TOUCH
WITH CIRRUS SHIELD PASSING OVER.

A COMBINATION OF A SURFACE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT...WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
A MOISTURE STARVED COOL FRONT AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD ON
PRECIP CHANCES. MAIN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITHIN THE HEIGHT FALLS
SHIFTS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. MOISTURE AT THE
LOWEST LAYERS IS SPARSE AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LOSES MUCH OF ITS
STRUCTURE WITH LITTLE SUPPORT. HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE AREA DRY
WITH THIS FEATURE. TEMPS CONTINUE TO MODERATE FRIDAY.

A BIT OF A COOL DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS WEAK CAA WILL
TAKE PLACE BEHIND THE COOL FRONT. SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN
QUICKLY ON SATURDAY...KEEPING THE AREA DRY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DRY AND WARM PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING THE RISK
FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY. A BIT OF A COOL DOWN BY THE END OF THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH VFR WL CONT WITH HIGH PRES CNTRED OVR THE NERN CONUS...LGT
ELY SFC WIND WL VEER TO THE SE TDA AND INCRS TWD 10 KTS AS LOW PRES
DIGS OVR THE WRN LAKES.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NXT CHC OF RSTRNS WL COME WITH THE ADVN AND PASSAGE OF A FRIDAY
NGT CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 170143
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
943 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL THEN PASS MAINLY TO OUR NORTH EARLY THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM
ADVECTION RETURNING ALOFT. HOWEVER...THINK THAT LOW LEVEL MIXING
WILL BE WEAK WITH INVERSION IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AND HIGH CIRRUS
SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AS WELL. THUS...WILL
MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 20`S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.

WARM ADVECTION AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE TO CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMB CLOSE TO +4C ON FRIDAY.

A WEAK SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SEEMS POISED TO
LARGELY SHEAR OUT AS IT MOVES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE CONNECTION
AND WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
LIKELY TO TRANSIT NORTH OF OUR AREA PER THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...NOTHING HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS SEEMED PRUDENT AT THIS
JUNCTURE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAMIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM SEEMS
LIKELY TO BE A WIND SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND A TEMPORARY
SCALING BACK OF TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS
MODIFIED POLAR HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AS THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SEEMS LIKELY TO DO SIMILARLY. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND NICELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
NEXT SYSTEMS SEEMS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE AREA ROUGHLY MONDAY WITH
DRIER WEATHER RETURNING FOR MID-WEEK.

OVERALL...THE PATTERN LOOKS TO TURN MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM STRAYING ALL
THAT FAR FROM NORMAL...AND KEEP PERIODIC TRENDS FROM DRY TO WET
AND BACK UNTIL MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGING SEEMS POSSIBLE JUST BEYOND
THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. FRIES

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME MAINLY MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A MOISTURE-STARVED FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 170143
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
943 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL THEN PASS MAINLY TO OUR NORTH EARLY THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM
ADVECTION RETURNING ALOFT. HOWEVER...THINK THAT LOW LEVEL MIXING
WILL BE WEAK WITH INVERSION IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AND HIGH CIRRUS
SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AS WELL. THUS...WILL
MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 20`S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.

WARM ADVECTION AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE TO CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMB CLOSE TO +4C ON FRIDAY.

A WEAK SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SEEMS POISED TO
LARGELY SHEAR OUT AS IT MOVES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE CONNECTION
AND WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
LIKELY TO TRANSIT NORTH OF OUR AREA PER THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...NOTHING HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS SEEMED PRUDENT AT THIS
JUNCTURE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAMIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM SEEMS
LIKELY TO BE A WIND SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND A TEMPORARY
SCALING BACK OF TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS
MODIFIED POLAR HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AS THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SEEMS LIKELY TO DO SIMILARLY. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND NICELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
NEXT SYSTEMS SEEMS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE AREA ROUGHLY MONDAY WITH
DRIER WEATHER RETURNING FOR MID-WEEK.

OVERALL...THE PATTERN LOOKS TO TURN MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM STRAYING ALL
THAT FAR FROM NORMAL...AND KEEP PERIODIC TRENDS FROM DRY TO WET
AND BACK UNTIL MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGING SEEMS POSSIBLE JUST BEYOND
THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. FRIES

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME MAINLY MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A MOISTURE-STARVED FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 162342
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
742 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL THEN PASS MAINLY TO OUR NORTH EARLY THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME HIGH CIRRUS
WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE
EFFECT ON LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
EVEN WITH SKIES THAT CLEARED AND YIELDED ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN STUCK IN A DEEP RUT. WITH
VERY POOR LOW LEVEL MIXING...IT SEEMS QUITE UNLIKELY ANY
ADDITIONAL RISE WILL OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND SUNDOWN THAT WOULD
PRECLUDE FAIRLY STRONG FALLS TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...CLEAR SKIES
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND DEWPOINTS ARE FAIRLY
LOW...AND AS A RESULT...EVEN THOUGH FLOW WILL START TO EDGE UP
FROM THE SOUTHEAST...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CRATER WELL BELOW
FREEZING YET AGAIN. ACROSS THE AREA...WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN
THE 20S ARE ANTICIPATED. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES SHOULD LOCK INTO PLACE ON
THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FARTHER TO THE EAST AND FLOW
INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO
START TO CLIMB INTO THE +2 TO +4C RANGE ON THURSDAY...AND CLOSER
TO +4C ON FRIDAY.

A WEAK SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SEEMS POISED TO
LARGELY SHEAR OUT AS IT MOVES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE CONNECTION
AND WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
LIKELY TO TRANSIT NORTH OF OUR AREA PER THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...NOTHING HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS SEEMED PRUDENT AT THIS
JUNCTURE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAMIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM SEEMS
LIKELY TO BE A WIND SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND A TEMPORARY
SCALING BACK OF TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS
MODIFIED POLAR HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AS THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SEEMS LIKELY TO DO SIMILARLY. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND NICELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
NEXT SYSTEMS SEEMS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE AREA ROUGHLY MONDAY WITH
DRIER WEATHER RETURNING FOR MID-WEEK.

OVERALL...THE PATTERN LOOKS TO TURN MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM STRAYING ALL
THAT FAR FROM NORMAL...AND KEEP PERIODIC TRENDS FROM DRY TO WET
AND BACK UNTIL MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGING SEEMS POSSIBLE JUST BEYOND
THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. FRIES

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME MAINLY MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A MOISTURE-STARVED FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 161907
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
307 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL THEN PASS MAINLY TO OUR NORTH EARLY THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EVEN WITH SKIES THAT CLEARED AND YIELDED ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN STUCK IN A DEEP RUT. WITH
VERY POOR LOW LEVEL MIXING...IT SEEMS QUITE UNLIKELY ANY
ADDITIONAL RISE WILL OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND SUNDOWN THAT WOULD
PRECLUDE FAIRLY STRONG FALLS TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...CLEAR SKIES
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND DEWPOINTS ARE FAIRLY
LOW...AND AS A RESULT...EVEN THOUGH FLOW WILL START TO EDGE UP
FROM THE SOUTHEAST...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CRATER WELL BELOW
FREEZING YET AGAIN. ACROSS THE AREA...WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN
THE 20S ARE ANTICIPATED. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES SHOULD LOCK INTO PLACE ON
THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FARTHER TO THE EAST AND FLOW
INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO
START TO CLIMB INTO THE +2 TO +4C RANGE ON THURSDAY...AND CLOSER
TO +4C ON FRIDAY.

A WEAK SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SEEMS POISED TO
LARGELY SHEAR OUT AS IT MOVES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE CONNECTION
AND WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
LIKELY TO TRANSIT NORTH OF OUR AREA PER THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...NOTHING HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS SEEMED PRUDENT AT THIS
JUNCTURE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAMIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM SEEMS
LIKELY TO BE A WIND SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND A TEMPORARY
SCALING BACK OF TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS
MODIFIED POLAR HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AS THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SEEMS LIKELY TO DO SIMILARLY. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND NICELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
NEXT SYSTEMS SEEMS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE AREA ROUGHLY MONDAY WITH
DRIER WEATHER RETURNING FOR MID-WEEK.

OVERALL...THE PATTERN LOOKS TO TURN MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM STRAYING ALL
THAT FAR FROM NORMAL...AND KEEP PERIODIC TRENDS FROM DRY TO WET
AND BACK UNTIL MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGING SEEMS POSSIBLE JUST BEYOND
THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. FRIES

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME MAINLY MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A MOISTURE-STARVED FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 161907
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
307 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL THEN PASS MAINLY TO OUR NORTH EARLY THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EVEN WITH SKIES THAT CLEARED AND YIELDED ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN STUCK IN A DEEP RUT. WITH
VERY POOR LOW LEVEL MIXING...IT SEEMS QUITE UNLIKELY ANY
ADDITIONAL RISE WILL OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND SUNDOWN THAT WOULD
PRECLUDE FAIRLY STRONG FALLS TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...CLEAR SKIES
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND DEWPOINTS ARE FAIRLY
LOW...AND AS A RESULT...EVEN THOUGH FLOW WILL START TO EDGE UP
FROM THE SOUTHEAST...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CRATER WELL BELOW
FREEZING YET AGAIN. ACROSS THE AREA...WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN
THE 20S ARE ANTICIPATED. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES SHOULD LOCK INTO PLACE ON
THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FARTHER TO THE EAST AND FLOW
INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO
START TO CLIMB INTO THE +2 TO +4C RANGE ON THURSDAY...AND CLOSER
TO +4C ON FRIDAY.

A WEAK SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SEEMS POISED TO
LARGELY SHEAR OUT AS IT MOVES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE CONNECTION
AND WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
LIKELY TO TRANSIT NORTH OF OUR AREA PER THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...NOTHING HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS SEEMED PRUDENT AT THIS
JUNCTURE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAMIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM SEEMS
LIKELY TO BE A WIND SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND A TEMPORARY
SCALING BACK OF TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS
MODIFIED POLAR HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AS THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SEEMS LIKELY TO DO SIMILARLY. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND NICELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
NEXT SYSTEMS SEEMS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE AREA ROUGHLY MONDAY WITH
DRIER WEATHER RETURNING FOR MID-WEEK.

OVERALL...THE PATTERN LOOKS TO TURN MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM STRAYING ALL
THAT FAR FROM NORMAL...AND KEEP PERIODIC TRENDS FROM DRY TO WET
AND BACK UNTIL MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGING SEEMS POSSIBLE JUST BEYOND
THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. FRIES

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME MAINLY MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A MOISTURE-STARVED FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 161539
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1139 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY AND CHILLY DAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE TOWARD NORMAL READINGS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VISIBLE IMAGERY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS REVEALED AMPLE SNOW
COVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES AS WELL AS IN THE RIDGES FROM THE
SNOW THAT OCCURRED OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO. THIS COMBINED WITH
INCOMING HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND VERY
POOR MIXING EVERYWHERE HAS MANAGED TO COMBINE TO PUT A VERTIABLE
LID ON TEMPERATURE RISES THIS MORNING. IN FACT...AS OF 11 AM...THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WAS STILL BELOW FREEZING. THIS
IS REMARKABLE FOR MID-APRIL WITH THE SUN OUT APPROACHING THE NOON
HOUR. THAT SAID...TEMPERATURE EXPECTATIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON WERE
PROBABLY TOO OPTIMISTIC...SO THEY WERE PEELED BACK AROUND A HALF
DOZEN DEGREES ALMOST EVERYWHERE...LARGELY IN LINE WITH THE NAM 2
METER AND ECMWF SURFACE TEMPERATURE FIELDS. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. TEMPS
WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE BOUNDARY SO FOR
NOW...FEEL SCH POPS ARE APPROPRIATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EARLY WEEK RAIN CHCS WL ACCOMPANY A CROSSING SHORTWV. GIVEN THE
OPEN NATURE OF THE WAVE AND RESULTING TIMING AND MSTR SUPPLY
ISSUES...CHC POPS WL SUFFICE. OTHERWISE...TEMPS NR...OR A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVGS ARE PROJECTED GIVEN THE
ZONAL...BUT UNDULATORY FLOW PROJECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE PSBL WITH THE ADVN AND PASSAGE OF FRIDAY NIGHT LOW
PRES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 161539
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1139 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY AND CHILLY DAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE TOWARD NORMAL READINGS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VISIBLE IMAGERY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS REVEALED AMPLE SNOW
COVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES AS WELL AS IN THE RIDGES FROM THE
SNOW THAT OCCURRED OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO. THIS COMBINED WITH
INCOMING HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND VERY
POOR MIXING EVERYWHERE HAS MANAGED TO COMBINE TO PUT A VERTIABLE
LID ON TEMPERATURE RISES THIS MORNING. IN FACT...AS OF 11 AM...THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WAS STILL BELOW FREEZING. THIS
IS REMARKABLE FOR MID-APRIL WITH THE SUN OUT APPROACHING THE NOON
HOUR. THAT SAID...TEMPERATURE EXPECTATIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON WERE
PROBABLY TOO OPTIMISTIC...SO THEY WERE PEELED BACK AROUND A HALF
DOZEN DEGREES ALMOST EVERYWHERE...LARGELY IN LINE WITH THE NAM 2
METER AND ECMWF SURFACE TEMPERATURE FIELDS. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. TEMPS
WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE BOUNDARY SO FOR
NOW...FEEL SCH POPS ARE APPROPRIATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EARLY WEEK RAIN CHCS WL ACCOMPANY A CROSSING SHORTWV. GIVEN THE
OPEN NATURE OF THE WAVE AND RESULTING TIMING AND MSTR SUPPLY
ISSUES...CHC POPS WL SUFFICE. OTHERWISE...TEMPS NR...OR A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVGS ARE PROJECTED GIVEN THE
ZONAL...BUT UNDULATORY FLOW PROJECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE PSBL WITH THE ADVN AND PASSAGE OF FRIDAY NIGHT LOW
PRES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 161220
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
820 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY AND CHILLY DAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE TOWARD NORMAL READINGS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONING OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL RESULT IN
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND A MODERATE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY...WITH
DAYTIME MAX TEMPS APPROXIMATELY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. TEMPS
WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE BOUNDARY SO FOR
NOW...FEEL SCH POPS ARE APPROPRIATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EARLY WEEK RAIN CHCS WL ACCOMPANY A CROSSING SHORTWV. GIVEN THE
OPEN NATURE OF THE WAVE AND RESULTING TIMING AND MSTR SUPPLY
ISSUES...CHC POPS WL SUFFICE. OTHERWISE...TEMPS NR...OR A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVGS ARE PROJECTED GIVEN THE
ZONAL...BUT UNDULATORY FLOW PROJECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE PSBL WITH THE ADVN AND PASSAGE OF FRIDAY NIGHT LOW
PRES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 161220
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
820 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY AND CHILLY DAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE TOWARD NORMAL READINGS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONING OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL RESULT IN
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND A MODERATE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY...WITH
DAYTIME MAX TEMPS APPROXIMATELY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. TEMPS
WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE BOUNDARY SO FOR
NOW...FEEL SCH POPS ARE APPROPRIATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EARLY WEEK RAIN CHCS WL ACCOMPANY A CROSSING SHORTWV. GIVEN THE
OPEN NATURE OF THE WAVE AND RESULTING TIMING AND MSTR SUPPLY
ISSUES...CHC POPS WL SUFFICE. OTHERWISE...TEMPS NR...OR A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVGS ARE PROJECTED GIVEN THE
ZONAL...BUT UNDULATORY FLOW PROJECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE PSBL WITH THE ADVN AND PASSAGE OF FRIDAY NIGHT LOW
PRES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 160829
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
429 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY AND CHILLY DAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE TOWARD NORMAL READINGS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY. THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD...ALLOWING FOR A
GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. TEMPS
WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE BOUNDARY SO FOR
NOW...FEEL SCH POPS ARE APPROPRIATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EARLY WEEK RAIN CHCS WL ACCOMPANY A CROSSING SHORTWV. GIVEN THE
OPEN NATURE OF THE WAVE AND RESULTING TIMING AND MSTR SUPPLY
ISSUES...CHC POPS WL SUFFICE. OTHERWISE...TEMPS NR...OR A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVGS ARE PROJECTED GIVEN THE
ZONAL...BUT UNDULATORY FLOW PROJECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SBSDNC WL INCR UNDER BLDG HIGH PRES GRADUALLY SUPRESS ANY RMNG
STRATOCU OVR THE UPR OH REGION THIS MRNG. VFR AND LGT...VARIABLE
WIND WL THUS PREDOMINATE.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE PSBL WITH THE ADVN AND PASSAGE OF FRIDAY NIGHT LOW
PRES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 160829
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
429 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY AND CHILLY DAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE TOWARD NORMAL READINGS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY. THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD...ALLOWING FOR A
GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. TEMPS
WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE BOUNDARY SO FOR
NOW...FEEL SCH POPS ARE APPROPRIATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EARLY WEEK RAIN CHCS WL ACCOMPANY A CROSSING SHORTWV. GIVEN THE
OPEN NATURE OF THE WAVE AND RESULTING TIMING AND MSTR SUPPLY
ISSUES...CHC POPS WL SUFFICE. OTHERWISE...TEMPS NR...OR A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVGS ARE PROJECTED GIVEN THE
ZONAL...BUT UNDULATORY FLOW PROJECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SBSDNC WL INCR UNDER BLDG HIGH PRES GRADUALLY SUPRESS ANY RMNG
STRATOCU OVR THE UPR OH REGION THIS MRNG. VFR AND LGT...VARIABLE
WIND WL THUS PREDOMINATE.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE PSBL WITH THE ADVN AND PASSAGE OF FRIDAY NIGHT LOW
PRES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 160423 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1223 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY AND CHILLY DAY TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BEGINNING THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL WANE AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD
AND WINDS ALOFT SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE THE TREND OF DECREASING CLOUD COVER.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION TODAY.
THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD...ALLOWING FOR A GOOD
DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. TEMPS
WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE BOUNDARY SO FOR
NOW...FEEL SCH POPS ARE APPROPRIATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING A WEAK
COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING. THERE WILL NOT
BE A LOT OF MOISTURE FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH...BUT GOING WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS STILL APPEARS REASONABLE. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD COME
TO AN END BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES WITHIN NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SBSDNC WL INCR UNDER BLDG HIGH PRES GRADUALLY SUPRESS THE RMNG
STRATOCU OVR THE UPR OH REGION.  VFR AND LGT...VARIABLE WIND WL THUS
PREDOMINATE.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE PSBL WITH THE ADVN AND PASSAGE OF WEEKEND LOW PRES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 160423 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1223 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY AND CHILLY DAY TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BEGINNING THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL WANE AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD
AND WINDS ALOFT SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE THE TREND OF DECREASING CLOUD COVER.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION TODAY.
THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD...ALLOWING FOR A GOOD
DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. TEMPS
WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE BOUNDARY SO FOR
NOW...FEEL SCH POPS ARE APPROPRIATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING A WEAK
COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING. THERE WILL NOT
BE A LOT OF MOISTURE FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH...BUT GOING WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS STILL APPEARS REASONABLE. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD COME
TO AN END BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES WITHIN NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SBSDNC WL INCR UNDER BLDG HIGH PRES GRADUALLY SUPRESS THE RMNG
STRATOCU OVR THE UPR OH REGION.  VFR AND LGT...VARIABLE WIND WL THUS
PREDOMINATE.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE PSBL WITH THE ADVN AND PASSAGE OF WEEKEND LOW PRES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 160053
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
853 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL END BEFORE MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT. WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BEFORE MODERATING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS ON THE WANE AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO REGION WITH
SURFACE RIDGE. STRATO-CU BREAKING UP QUICKLY ACROSS OHIO AND WILL
SPREAD EAST TO THE RIDGES OVERNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL END BY MIDNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH CLEARING LATE AND WINDS EVENTUALLY
DECOUPLED BEFORE SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES COULD FALL INTO THE HIGH
TEENS AND LOW 20`S ACROSS THE AREA. THIS COULD LEAD TO THE
BREAKING OF A RECORD LOW OF 21 AT KPIT.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE FOR A SUNNY AND DRY DAY WEDNESDAY.
WITH VERY LITTLE MIXING OF THE WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...HIGHS
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD STILL FALL INTO THE 30`S BUT WARM ADVECTION
SHOULD HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS
FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING A WEAK
COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING. THERE WILL NOT
BE A LOT OF MOISTURE FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH...BUT GOING WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS STILL APPEARS REASONABLE. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD COME
TO AN END BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES WITHIN NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENL VFR STRATOCU EXP ERLY TNGT. MD/UPR LVL TROFG WL BRING SCT LGT
SNW SHWRS THIS EVE BEFORE SHIFTG E. OVRNGT...SBSDNC WL INCR UNDER
BLDG HIGH PRES BRINGING CLRG SKIES AND LGT/VRB WNDS THRU WED.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE PSBL WITH A FRI NGT/SAT LOW PRES ADVN AND PASSAGE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$












000
FXUS61 KPBZ 160053
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
853 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL END BEFORE MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT. WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BEFORE MODERATING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS ON THE WANE AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO REGION WITH
SURFACE RIDGE. STRATO-CU BREAKING UP QUICKLY ACROSS OHIO AND WILL
SPREAD EAST TO THE RIDGES OVERNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL END BY MIDNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH CLEARING LATE AND WINDS EVENTUALLY
DECOUPLED BEFORE SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES COULD FALL INTO THE HIGH
TEENS AND LOW 20`S ACROSS THE AREA. THIS COULD LEAD TO THE
BREAKING OF A RECORD LOW OF 21 AT KPIT.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE FOR A SUNNY AND DRY DAY WEDNESDAY.
WITH VERY LITTLE MIXING OF THE WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...HIGHS
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD STILL FALL INTO THE 30`S BUT WARM ADVECTION
SHOULD HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS
FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING A WEAK
COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING. THERE WILL NOT
BE A LOT OF MOISTURE FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH...BUT GOING WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS STILL APPEARS REASONABLE. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD COME
TO AN END BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES WITHIN NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENL VFR STRATOCU EXP ERLY TNGT. MD/UPR LVL TROFG WL BRING SCT LGT
SNW SHWRS THIS EVE BEFORE SHIFTG E. OVRNGT...SBSDNC WL INCR UNDER
BLDG HIGH PRES BRINGING CLRG SKIES AND LGT/VRB WNDS THRU WED.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE PSBL WITH A FRI NGT/SAT LOW PRES ADVN AND PASSAGE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$













000
FXUS61 KPBZ 152141
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
541 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN COLD NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
THIS EVENING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT.
WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BEFORE
MODERATING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EARLY EVENING UPDATE TO KEEP CLOUDS IN ERN OHIO A BIT LONGER THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK.

THE MID LEVEL JET HAS SUPPORTED AN AREA OF SNOW THAT CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER PA/WV LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EVENTUALLY THIS
BAND SHOULD HEAD OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH STRONG COLD
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING THE CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. CONSIDERING HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN...SNOW WILL
STRUGGLE TO ACCUMULATE EXCEPT ON ELEVATED AND GRASSY SURFACES.
GENERALLY WENT WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT SNOW SHOWERS MAY ALSO LINGER IN UPSLOPE LOCATIONS A BIT
LONGER WITH THE MOISTURE PROFILE TOUCHING THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE. ACCUMULATIONS WERE KEPT AT JUST AROUND AN INCH AS SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD QUICKLY DRY OUT THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THINK THAT IF WE CLEAR OUT AND DECOUPLE BEFORE
SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES COULD FALL INTO THE HIGH TEENS AND LOW 20`S
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS COULD LEAD TO THE BREAKING OF A RECORD LOW
OF 21.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE FOR A SUNNY AND DRY DAY WEDNESDAY.
WITH VERY LITTLE MIXING OF THE WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...HIGHS
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD STILL FALL INTO THE 30`S BUT WARM ADVECTION
SHOULD HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS
FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING A WEAK
COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING. THERE WILL NOT
BE A LOT OF MOISTURE FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH...BUT GOING WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS STILL APPEARS REASONABLE. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD COME
TO AN END BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES WITHIN NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CONDS AND OCNL SNW SHWRS WL CONT FOR MOST PORTS THIS EVE AS
MD/UPR LVL TROFG CROSSES THE GT LKS. LTR TNGT...SBSDNC WL INCR UNDER
BLDG HIGH PRES BRINGING CLRG SKIES AND LGT/VRB WNDS.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE PSBL WITH A FRI NGT/SAT LOW PRES ADVN AND PASSAGE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 152141
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
541 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN COLD NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
THIS EVENING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT.
WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BEFORE
MODERATING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EARLY EVENING UPDATE TO KEEP CLOUDS IN ERN OHIO A BIT LONGER THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK.

THE MID LEVEL JET HAS SUPPORTED AN AREA OF SNOW THAT CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER PA/WV LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EVENTUALLY THIS
BAND SHOULD HEAD OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH STRONG COLD
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING THE CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. CONSIDERING HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN...SNOW WILL
STRUGGLE TO ACCUMULATE EXCEPT ON ELEVATED AND GRASSY SURFACES.
GENERALLY WENT WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT SNOW SHOWERS MAY ALSO LINGER IN UPSLOPE LOCATIONS A BIT
LONGER WITH THE MOISTURE PROFILE TOUCHING THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE. ACCUMULATIONS WERE KEPT AT JUST AROUND AN INCH AS SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD QUICKLY DRY OUT THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THINK THAT IF WE CLEAR OUT AND DECOUPLE BEFORE
SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES COULD FALL INTO THE HIGH TEENS AND LOW 20`S
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS COULD LEAD TO THE BREAKING OF A RECORD LOW
OF 21.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE FOR A SUNNY AND DRY DAY WEDNESDAY.
WITH VERY LITTLE MIXING OF THE WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...HIGHS
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD STILL FALL INTO THE 30`S BUT WARM ADVECTION
SHOULD HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS
FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING A WEAK
COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING. THERE WILL NOT
BE A LOT OF MOISTURE FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH...BUT GOING WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS STILL APPEARS REASONABLE. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD COME
TO AN END BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES WITHIN NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CONDS AND OCNL SNW SHWRS WL CONT FOR MOST PORTS THIS EVE AS
MD/UPR LVL TROFG CROSSES THE GT LKS. LTR TNGT...SBSDNC WL INCR UNDER
BLDG HIGH PRES BRINGING CLRG SKIES AND LGT/VRB WNDS.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE PSBL WITH A FRI NGT/SAT LOW PRES ADVN AND PASSAGE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 152007
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
407 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN COLD NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
THIS EVENING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT.
WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BEFORE
MODERATING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL JET HAS SUPPORTED AN AREA OF SNOW THAT CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER PA/WV LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EVENTUALLY THIS
BAND SHOULD HEAD OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH STRONG COLD
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING THE CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. CONSIDERING HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN...SNOW WILL
STRUGGLE TO ACCUMULATE EXCEPT ON ELEVATED AND GRASSY SURFACES.
GENERALLY WENT WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT SNOW SHOWERS MAY ALSO LINGER IN UPSLOPE LOCATIONS A BIT
LONGER WITH THE MOISTURE PROFILE TOUCHING THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE. ACCUMULATIONS WERE KEPT AT JUST AROUND AN INCH AS SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD QUICKLY DRY OUT THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THINK THAT IF WE CLEAR OUT AND DECOUPLE BEFORE
SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES COULD FALL INTO THE HIGH TEENS AND LOW 20`S
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS COULD LEAD TO THE BREAKING OF A RECORD LOW
OF 21.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE FOR A SUNNY AND DRY DAY WEDNESDAY.
WITH VERY LITTLE MIXING OF THE WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...HIGHS
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD STILL FALL INTO THE 30`S BUT WARM ADVECTION
SHOULD HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS
FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING A WEAK
COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING. THERE WILL NOT
BE A LOT OF MOISTURE FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH...BUT GOING WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS STILL APPEARS REASONABLE. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD COME
TO AN END BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES WITHIN NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR/MVFR VISIBILITY SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MID AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH OCCASIONAL FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. STILL UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW QUICKLY CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO VFR AWAY FROM FKL/DUJ. HAVE ANTICIPATED THAT THIS WILL
OCCUR BY LATE EVENING...BUT NORTHWEST FLOW COULD KEEP CLOUDS IN
LONGER. THINK THAT ALL SITES SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY SUNRISE ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH CAVU. NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING AND GO VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NXT CHC FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A WEEKEND LOW
PRES ADVN AND PASSAGE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$












000
FXUS61 KPBZ 152007
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
407 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN COLD NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
THIS EVENING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT.
WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BEFORE
MODERATING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL JET HAS SUPPORTED AN AREA OF SNOW THAT CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER PA/WV LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EVENTUALLY THIS
BAND SHOULD HEAD OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH STRONG COLD
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING THE CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. CONSIDERING HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN...SNOW WILL
STRUGGLE TO ACCUMULATE EXCEPT ON ELEVATED AND GRASSY SURFACES.
GENERALLY WENT WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT SNOW SHOWERS MAY ALSO LINGER IN UPSLOPE LOCATIONS A BIT
LONGER WITH THE MOISTURE PROFILE TOUCHING THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE. ACCUMULATIONS WERE KEPT AT JUST AROUND AN INCH AS SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD QUICKLY DRY OUT THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THINK THAT IF WE CLEAR OUT AND DECOUPLE BEFORE
SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES COULD FALL INTO THE HIGH TEENS AND LOW 20`S
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS COULD LEAD TO THE BREAKING OF A RECORD LOW
OF 21.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE FOR A SUNNY AND DRY DAY WEDNESDAY.
WITH VERY LITTLE MIXING OF THE WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...HIGHS
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD STILL FALL INTO THE 30`S BUT WARM ADVECTION
SHOULD HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS
FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING A WEAK
COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING. THERE WILL NOT
BE A LOT OF MOISTURE FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH...BUT GOING WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS STILL APPEARS REASONABLE. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD COME
TO AN END BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES WITHIN NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR/MVFR VISIBILITY SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MID AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH OCCASIONAL FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. STILL UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW QUICKLY CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO VFR AWAY FROM FKL/DUJ. HAVE ANTICIPATED THAT THIS WILL
OCCUR BY LATE EVENING...BUT NORTHWEST FLOW COULD KEEP CLOUDS IN
LONGER. THINK THAT ALL SITES SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY SUNRISE ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH CAVU. NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING AND GO VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NXT CHC FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A WEEKEND LOW
PRES ADVN AND PASSAGE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$













000
FXUS61 KPBZ 151724
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
124 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN COLD NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT. WELL
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BEFORE
MODERATING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE CONTINUES TO DIMINISH WITH THE DEPARTURE OF
THE MID LEVEL JET TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...STRONG COLD ADVECTION
WITH TEMPERATURES OF -12C AT 850HPA SHOULD SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONSIDERING HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN...SNOW
WILL STRUGGLE TO ACCUMULATE EXCEPT ON ELEVATED AND GRASSY
SURFACES. GENERALLY WENT WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE HI RES MODELS DO SUGGEST A PRONOUNCED LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW BAND THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT SURE WHETHER THIS WILL
MATERIALIZE. OPTED TO BUMP UP POPS NORTH OF I-80 FOR NOW. SNOW
SHOWERS MAY ALSO LINGER IN UPSLOPE LOCATIONS THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE MOISTURE PROFILE TOUCHING THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE. HOWEVER...HAVE NOT ADDED ANY ACCUMULATIONS OVER AN INCH FOR
NOW AS HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD QUICKLY DRY OUT THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANY
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE LATE THIS EVENING AS
INVERSIONS DROP...SUBSIDENCE INCREASE AND WINDS ALOFT SHIFT TO A
MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION. THE COLDEST AIR BEGINS TO RETREAT
NORTHWARD AS DAWN APPROACHES WEDNESDAY.

SURFACE HIGH WILL PROVIDE A DRY WEDNESDAY WITH SUNSHINE...HOWEVER
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

WARMING TREND CONTINUES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO SPRING FOR THE LONG TERM...WITH THE RISK FOR SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST SITES HAVE CHANGED OVER TO SNOW...WITH DUJ/LBE/MGW EXPECTED TO
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY 16Z. IFR SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR A FEW
HOURS...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
AS SNOW DIMINISHES IN INTENSITY. OCCASIONAL FLURRIES AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DUE TO COLD ADVECTION OFF THE GREAT
LAKES...KEEPING MVFR STRATOCU UNTIL EARLY WED MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NXT CHC FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A WEEKEND LOW
PRES ADVN AND PASSAGE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 151429
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1029 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR AND RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WELL BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
USING SURFACE OBS AND DUAL POL RADAR...SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE
BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SLEET
EXPECTED TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN AND SNOW DURING CHANGEOVER. THIS
HAS ALREADY OCCURRED AT THE OFFICE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION CHANGING MOST OF OUR EASTERN
OHIO ZONES TO SNOW AS OF THIS HOUR.

UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR MODERATE PRECIP SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE LOW-
LEVEL JET MOVES EASTWARD. HOWEVER...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WITH
TEMPERATURES OF -12C AT 850HPA SHOULD SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. CONSIDERING HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN...SNOW WILL
STRUGGLE TO ACCUMULATE EXCEPT ON ELEVATED AND GRASSY SURFACES.
GENERALLY WENT WITH AN INCH OR LESS FOR ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN UPSLOPE LOCATIONS...AND
ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR BUT FOR NOW...MAINTAINED THE FORECAST AS
IS.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A TREND AS FORECAST SO LITTLE WAS
CHANGED. SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE FRONT SHOULD WRAP UP THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE FAR EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANY
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE LATE THIS EVENING AS
INVERSIONS DROP...SUBSIDENCE INCREASE AND WINDS ALOFT SHIFT TO A
MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION. THE COLDEST AIR BEGINS TO RETREAT
NORTHWARD AS DAWN APPROACHES WEDNESDAY.

WAA AND SURFACE HIGH WILL PROVIDE A DRY WEDNESDAY WITH SUNSHINE...
HOWEVER TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

WARMING TREND CONTINUES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO SPRING FOR THE LONG TERM...WITH THE RISK FOR SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST SITES HAVE CHANGED OVER TO SNOW...WITH DUJ/LBE/MGW EXPECTED TO
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY 16Z. IFR SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR A FEW
HOURS...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
AS SNOW DIMINISHES IN INTENSITY. OCCASIONAL FLURRIES AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DUE TO COLD ADVECTION OFF THE GREAT
LAKES...KEEPING MVFR STRATOCU UNTIL EARLY WED MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NXT CHC FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A WEEKEND LOW
PRES ADVN AND PASSAGE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 151005
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
605 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR AND RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WELL BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PREDAWN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST FOR HOURLY TRENDS AND TO
INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS...ALBEIT FOR GRASSY AREAS...AS COLDER AIR
APPEARS TO BE INVADING WRN ZONES FASTER THAN PREVIOUS PROG.

PREVIOUS....
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF MY AREA BY 12Z AND STRONG
CAA WILL BE UNDERWAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. PRECIP COVERAGE
WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE LOSS OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND LOW-LEVEL
JET. LOOKING AT WHAT IS OCCURRING WESTWARD... RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE
COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR ALL LOCATIONS THIS MORNING FOR THE WESTERN
HALF AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR THE EAST. COULD SEE
SOME WHITENING OF GRASSY AREAS...BUT A WARM GROUND WILL HAMPER
THIS.

TEMPS WILL BE A CHALLENGE TO SAY THE LEAST. USING OBS TO THE
WEST...A DROP OF 15 TO 20 DEGREES LOOKS REASONABLE IN ABOUT 2 TO 3
HOURS.

SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE FRONT SHOULD WRAP UP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
FAR EAST. HOWEVER...EXPECT MORE SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AND STRONG CAA. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THE NORTH AND RIDGES ARE AT GREATEST RISK TO SEE AND EXTENDED
PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH MIXING HEIGHTS OVER THE RIDGES
GIVE ME PAUSE AS THEY DECREASE QUICKLY AS EVENING APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANY
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE LATE THIS EVENING AS
INVERSIONS DROP...SUBSIDENCE INCREASE AND WINDS ALOFT SHIFT TO A
MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION. THE COLDEST AIR BEGINS TO RETREAT
NORTHWARD AS DAWN APPROACHES WEDNESDAY.

WAA AND SURFACE HIGH WILL PROVIDE A DRY WEDNESDAY WITH SUNSHINE...
HOWEVER TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

WARMING TREND CONTINUES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO SPRING FOR THE LONG TERM...WITH THE RISK FOR SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITION DETERIORATION AND A WIND VEER TO THE NW CAN BE EXPECTED AS
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACRS THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION THIS MRNG.  WITH
THE WIND VEER WL COME A RAPID INFLUX OF COLD AIR WHICH WL CHANGE ANY
RAIN SHWRS TO SNOW.  COLD ADVCTN OFF THE LAKES WL MAINTAIN SNOW
SHWR...AND MVFR STRATOCU UNTIL EARLY WED MRNG.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NXT CHC FOR GENERAL RESTRICITIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A WEEKEND LOW
PRES ADVN AND PASSAGE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 151005
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
605 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR AND RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WELL BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PREDAWN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST FOR HOURLY TRENDS AND TO
INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS...ALBEIT FOR GRASSY AREAS...AS COLDER AIR
APPEARS TO BE INVADING WRN ZONES FASTER THAN PREVIOUS PROG.

PREVIOUS....
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF MY AREA BY 12Z AND STRONG
CAA WILL BE UNDERWAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. PRECIP COVERAGE
WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE LOSS OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND LOW-LEVEL
JET. LOOKING AT WHAT IS OCCURRING WESTWARD... RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE
COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR ALL LOCATIONS THIS MORNING FOR THE WESTERN
HALF AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR THE EAST. COULD SEE
SOME WHITENING OF GRASSY AREAS...BUT A WARM GROUND WILL HAMPER
THIS.

TEMPS WILL BE A CHALLENGE TO SAY THE LEAST. USING OBS TO THE
WEST...A DROP OF 15 TO 20 DEGREES LOOKS REASONABLE IN ABOUT 2 TO 3
HOURS.

SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE FRONT SHOULD WRAP UP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
FAR EAST. HOWEVER...EXPECT MORE SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AND STRONG CAA. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THE NORTH AND RIDGES ARE AT GREATEST RISK TO SEE AND EXTENDED
PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH MIXING HEIGHTS OVER THE RIDGES
GIVE ME PAUSE AS THEY DECREASE QUICKLY AS EVENING APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANY
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE LATE THIS EVENING AS
INVERSIONS DROP...SUBSIDENCE INCREASE AND WINDS ALOFT SHIFT TO A
MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION. THE COLDEST AIR BEGINS TO RETREAT
NORTHWARD AS DAWN APPROACHES WEDNESDAY.

WAA AND SURFACE HIGH WILL PROVIDE A DRY WEDNESDAY WITH SUNSHINE...
HOWEVER TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

WARMING TREND CONTINUES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO SPRING FOR THE LONG TERM...WITH THE RISK FOR SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITION DETERIORATION AND A WIND VEER TO THE NW CAN BE EXPECTED AS
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACRS THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION THIS MRNG.  WITH
THE WIND VEER WL COME A RAPID INFLUX OF COLD AIR WHICH WL CHANGE ANY
RAIN SHWRS TO SNOW.  COLD ADVCTN OFF THE LAKES WL MAINTAIN SNOW
SHWR...AND MVFR STRATOCU UNTIL EARLY WED MRNG.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NXT CHC FOR GENERAL RESTRICITIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A WEEKEND LOW
PRES ADVN AND PASSAGE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 150816
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
416 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR AND RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WELL BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF MY AREA BY 12Z AND STRONG CAA WILL BE
UNDERWAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE TRICKY
WITH THE LOSS OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND LOW-LEVEL JET. LOOKING AT
WHAT IS OCCURRING WESTWARD... RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR ALL LOCATIONS THIS MORNING FOR THE WESTERN HALF AND CONTINUING
INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR THE EAST. COULD SEE SOME WHITENING OF
GRASSY AREAS...BUT A WARM GROUND WILL HAMPER THIS.

TEMPS WILL BE A CHALLENGE TO SAY THE LEAST. USING OBS TO THE
WEST...A DROP OF 15 TO 20 DEGREES LOOKS REASONABLE IN ABOUT 2 TO 3
HOURS.

SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE FRONT SHOULD WRAP UP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
FAR EAST. HOWEVER...EXPECT MORE SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AND STRONG CAA. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THE NORTH AND RIDGES ARE AT GREATEST RISK TO SEE AND EXTENDED
PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH MIXING HEIGHTS OVER THE RIDGES
GIVE ME PAUSE AS THEY DECREASE QUICKLY AS EVENING APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANY
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE LATE THIS EVENING AS
INVERSIONS DROP...SUBSIDENCE INCREASE AND WINDS ALOFT SHIFT TO A
MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION. THE COLDEST AIR BEGINS TO RETREAT
NORTHWARD AS DAWN APPROACHES WEDNESDAY.

WAA AND SURFACE HIGH WILL PROVIDE A DRY WEDNESDAY WITH SUNSHINE...
HOWEVER TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

WARMING TREND CONTINUES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO SPRING FOR THE LONG TERM...WITH THE RISK FOR SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITION DETERIORATION AND A WIND VEER TO THE NW CAN BE EXPECTED AS
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACRS THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION THIS MRNG.  WITH
THE WIND VEER WL COME A RAPID INFLUX OF COLD AIR WHICH WL CHANGE ANY
RAIN SHWRS TO SNOW.  COLD ADVCTN OFF THE LAKES WL MAINTAIN SNOW
SHWR...AND MVFR STRATOCU UNTIL EARLY WED MRNG.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NXT CHC FOR GENERAL RESTRICITIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A WEEKEND LOW
PRES ADVN AND PASSAGE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 150816
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
416 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR AND RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WELL BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF MY AREA BY 12Z AND STRONG CAA WILL BE
UNDERWAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE TRICKY
WITH THE LOSS OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND LOW-LEVEL JET. LOOKING AT
WHAT IS OCCURRING WESTWARD... RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR ALL LOCATIONS THIS MORNING FOR THE WESTERN HALF AND CONTINUING
INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR THE EAST. COULD SEE SOME WHITENING OF
GRASSY AREAS...BUT A WARM GROUND WILL HAMPER THIS.

TEMPS WILL BE A CHALLENGE TO SAY THE LEAST. USING OBS TO THE
WEST...A DROP OF 15 TO 20 DEGREES LOOKS REASONABLE IN ABOUT 2 TO 3
HOURS.

SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE FRONT SHOULD WRAP UP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
FAR EAST. HOWEVER...EXPECT MORE SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AND STRONG CAA. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THE NORTH AND RIDGES ARE AT GREATEST RISK TO SEE AND EXTENDED
PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH MIXING HEIGHTS OVER THE RIDGES
GIVE ME PAUSE AS THEY DECREASE QUICKLY AS EVENING APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANY
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE LATE THIS EVENING AS
INVERSIONS DROP...SUBSIDENCE INCREASE AND WINDS ALOFT SHIFT TO A
MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION. THE COLDEST AIR BEGINS TO RETREAT
NORTHWARD AS DAWN APPROACHES WEDNESDAY.

WAA AND SURFACE HIGH WILL PROVIDE A DRY WEDNESDAY WITH SUNSHINE...
HOWEVER TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

WARMING TREND CONTINUES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO SPRING FOR THE LONG TERM...WITH THE RISK FOR SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITION DETERIORATION AND A WIND VEER TO THE NW CAN BE EXPECTED AS
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACRS THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION THIS MRNG.  WITH
THE WIND VEER WL COME A RAPID INFLUX OF COLD AIR WHICH WL CHANGE ANY
RAIN SHWRS TO SNOW.  COLD ADVCTN OFF THE LAKES WL MAINTAIN SNOW
SHWR...AND MVFR STRATOCU UNTIL EARLY WED MRNG.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NXT CHC FOR GENERAL RESTRICITIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A WEEKEND LOW
PRES ADVN AND PASSAGE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 150526 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
126 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR AND RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WELL BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MAJOR CHANGES FOR OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS ADJUSTMENT TO THE POPS...
TRYING TO GET A HANDLE ON TEMPS AND PRECIP TYPE. NONE OF THE
MODELS ARE HANDLING HOW FAST THE SHALLOW COLD AIR LAYER IS MOVING
EASTWARD AND IN TURN THE SPEED OF A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. USING
CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND CURRENT OBS TO THE WEST...WILL ATTEMPT TO
FIND A GOOD THICKNESS VALUE TO RELY ON FOR A CHANGE OVER TIME.
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...IN CORRELATION WITH THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE. MODEL
SOLUTIONS OF FRONTS FORWARD SPEED HAS INCREASED WITH FROPA AT PIT
EXPECTED BETWEEN 08-09Z. TIMING EVERYTHING...CHANGE OVER...SURFACE
TEMPS... PRECIPITATION IS A REAL CHALLENGE. LOOKING AT WHAT HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED TO THE WEST...A DROP IN TEMPS OF 15 TO 20
DEGREES LOOKS REASONABLE IN ABOUT 2 TO 3 HOURS. COMPLICATING THIS
TIMING IS THE SURFACE WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN ABLE TO SOMEWHAT SLOW THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE COLD AIR. HOWEVER...IF CURRENT MODEL
DEPICTIONS ARE CORRECT...THIS WAVE WILL QUICKLY PICK UP SPEED AND
STREAK NORTHEASTWARD AS DAWN APPROACHES. THIS MAY DECREASE THE
TIME REQUIRED FOR THESE LARGE SURFACE TEMP DROPS.

COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF MY AREA BY 12Z AND STRONG CAA WILL BE
UNDERWAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE TRICKY
WITH THE LOSS OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL JET
SHIFTING EASTWARD. AGAIN LOOKING AT WHAT IS OCCURRING WESTWARD...
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING.
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION BY LATE MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF
SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR ALL LOCATIONS THIS MORNING FOR
THE WESTERN HALF AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR THE EAST.
COULD SEE SOME WHITENING OF GRASSY AREAS...BUT A WARM GROUND WILL
HAMPER THIS.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A CHALLENGE TO SAY THE LEAST.

SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE FRONT SHOULD WRAP UP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
FAR EAST. HOWEVER...EXPECT MORE SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AND STRONG CAA. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THE NORTH AND RIDGES ARE AT GREATEST RISK TO SEE AND EXTENDED
PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH MIXING HEIGHTS OVER THE RIDGES
GIVE ME PAUSE AS THEY DECREASE QUICKLY AS EVENING APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANY
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE LATE THIS EVENING AS
INVERSIONS DROP...SUBSIDENCE INCREASE AND WINDS ALOFT SHIFT TO A
MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION. THE COLDEST AIR BEGINS TO RETREAT
NORTHWARD AS DAWN APPROACHES WEDNESDAY.

WAA AND SURFACE HIGH WILL PROVIDE A DRY WEDNESDAY WITH SUNSHINE...
HOWEVER TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

WARMING TREND CONTINUES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO SPRING FOR THE LONG TERM...WITH THE RISK FOR SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITION DETERIORATION AND A WIND VEER TO THE NW CAN BE EXPECTED AS
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACRS THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION THIS MRNG.  WITH
THE WIND VEER WL COME A RAPID INFLUX OF COLD AIR WHICH WL CHANGE ANY
RAIN SHWRS TO SNOW.  COLD ADVCTN OFF THE LAKES WL MAINTAIN SNOW
SHWR...AND MVFR STRATOCU UNTIL EARLY WED MRNG.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NXT CHC FOR GENERAL RESTRICITIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A WEEKEND LOW
PRES ADVN AND PASSAGE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 150526 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
126 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR AND RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WELL BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MAJOR CHANGES FOR OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS ADJUSTMENT TO THE POPS...
TRYING TO GET A HANDLE ON TEMPS AND PRECIP TYPE. NONE OF THE
MODELS ARE HANDLING HOW FAST THE SHALLOW COLD AIR LAYER IS MOVING
EASTWARD AND IN TURN THE SPEED OF A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. USING
CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND CURRENT OBS TO THE WEST...WILL ATTEMPT TO
FIND A GOOD THICKNESS VALUE TO RELY ON FOR A CHANGE OVER TIME.
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...IN CORRELATION WITH THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE. MODEL
SOLUTIONS OF FRONTS FORWARD SPEED HAS INCREASED WITH FROPA AT PIT
EXPECTED BETWEEN 08-09Z. TIMING EVERYTHING...CHANGE OVER...SURFACE
TEMPS... PRECIPITATION IS A REAL CHALLENGE. LOOKING AT WHAT HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED TO THE WEST...A DROP IN TEMPS OF 15 TO 20
DEGREES LOOKS REASONABLE IN ABOUT 2 TO 3 HOURS. COMPLICATING THIS
TIMING IS THE SURFACE WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN ABLE TO SOMEWHAT SLOW THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE COLD AIR. HOWEVER...IF CURRENT MODEL
DEPICTIONS ARE CORRECT...THIS WAVE WILL QUICKLY PICK UP SPEED AND
STREAK NORTHEASTWARD AS DAWN APPROACHES. THIS MAY DECREASE THE
TIME REQUIRED FOR THESE LARGE SURFACE TEMP DROPS.

COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF MY AREA BY 12Z AND STRONG CAA WILL BE
UNDERWAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE TRICKY
WITH THE LOSS OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL JET
SHIFTING EASTWARD. AGAIN LOOKING AT WHAT IS OCCURRING WESTWARD...
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING.
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION BY LATE MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF
SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR ALL LOCATIONS THIS MORNING FOR
THE WESTERN HALF AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR THE EAST.
COULD SEE SOME WHITENING OF GRASSY AREAS...BUT A WARM GROUND WILL
HAMPER THIS.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A CHALLENGE TO SAY THE LEAST.

SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE FRONT SHOULD WRAP UP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
FAR EAST. HOWEVER...EXPECT MORE SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AND STRONG CAA. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THE NORTH AND RIDGES ARE AT GREATEST RISK TO SEE AND EXTENDED
PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH MIXING HEIGHTS OVER THE RIDGES
GIVE ME PAUSE AS THEY DECREASE QUICKLY AS EVENING APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANY
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE LATE THIS EVENING AS
INVERSIONS DROP...SUBSIDENCE INCREASE AND WINDS ALOFT SHIFT TO A
MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION. THE COLDEST AIR BEGINS TO RETREAT
NORTHWARD AS DAWN APPROACHES WEDNESDAY.

WAA AND SURFACE HIGH WILL PROVIDE A DRY WEDNESDAY WITH SUNSHINE...
HOWEVER TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

WARMING TREND CONTINUES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO SPRING FOR THE LONG TERM...WITH THE RISK FOR SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITION DETERIORATION AND A WIND VEER TO THE NW CAN BE EXPECTED AS
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACRS THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION THIS MRNG.  WITH
THE WIND VEER WL COME A RAPID INFLUX OF COLD AIR WHICH WL CHANGE ANY
RAIN SHWRS TO SNOW.  COLD ADVCTN OFF THE LAKES WL MAINTAIN SNOW
SHWR...AND MVFR STRATOCU UNTIL EARLY WED MRNG.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NXT CHC FOR GENERAL RESTRICITIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A WEEKEND LOW
PRES ADVN AND PASSAGE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 150146
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
946 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MINOR CHGS TO LT EVE FCST BASED ON LATEST UPR AIR/MESO/NR TERM MDL
DATA. A RELATIVE LULL IN THE PCPN WL CONT ERLY TNGT. THE NXT
SHRTWV ACRS THE OH/TN VLY WL MOVE ACRS THE RGN AFT MDNGT WITH
WDSPRD SHWRS RTNG. A CDFNT IS ALSO EXPD TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACRS
THE AREA TNGT INTO ERLY TUE MRNG. MDLS PROGS ALSO SHOW A SFC WAVE
DVLPG ALG THE FNT BY TUE MRNG IN RESPONSE TO AN APRCHG UPR
TROF...WHICH SHOULD FURTHER SLOW THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE FNT.

CRITICAL THICKNESSES/MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW RAIN SHWRS SHOULD MIX
WITH OR CHG TO SNW SHWRS FM W-E THRU THE DAY...HOWEVER DEEP
MOISTURE SHOULD BE EXITING BY THE TIME THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES.
WITH A WRM GROUND NO SGFNT ACCUMS EXPD. COLD AIR ADVCTN SHOULD
RESULT IN FALLING TEMPS THRU THE DAY TUE...WITH 850MB TEMPS
DROPPING TO ARND -10 DEG C BY TUE EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUES NIGHT BRINGING
TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE LOW 20S AND TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH.
SIGNIFICANTLY LOW MODEL SPREAD FOR WEDS MORNING...SO BASICALLY JUST
TWEAKED TEMPS HERE AND THERE. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN THE LOW
LEVELS THROUGH 06Z WEDS TO CREATE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN
OUR SE RIDGES. NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION...
HOWEVER...UPWARDS OF A HALF AN INCH COULD ACCUMULATE ON GRASSY
SURFACES.

MID-WEEK FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRYING AND WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT REAL RISK OF SHOWERS WILL
RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO SPRING FOR THE LONG TERM...WITH THE RISK FOR SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN OH WILL SLOW THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE
QUICKLY MOVES NORTHEAST FROM KENTUCKY. GENERAL VFR WILL DETERIORATE
OVER NIGHT TO MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN WITH IFR CONDITIONS LATE NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE HEADS EAST FRONT WILL ACCELERATE
TUESDAY MORNING WITH COLD ADVECTION CHANGING RAIN TO SNOW FOR A TIME
BEFORE ENDING. EXPECT IFR NOW FOR A TIME AT KFKL AND KDUJ BEFORE
DRIER AIR LIFTS CIGS AND VSBY ALL PORTS MIDDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS TO 25 KTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR 18-24Z.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERAL VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/10







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 150146
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
946 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MINOR CHGS TO LT EVE FCST BASED ON LATEST UPR AIR/MESO/NR TERM MDL
DATA. A RELATIVE LULL IN THE PCPN WL CONT ERLY TNGT. THE NXT
SHRTWV ACRS THE OH/TN VLY WL MOVE ACRS THE RGN AFT MDNGT WITH
WDSPRD SHWRS RTNG. A CDFNT IS ALSO EXPD TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACRS
THE AREA TNGT INTO ERLY TUE MRNG. MDLS PROGS ALSO SHOW A SFC WAVE
DVLPG ALG THE FNT BY TUE MRNG IN RESPONSE TO AN APRCHG UPR
TROF...WHICH SHOULD FURTHER SLOW THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE FNT.

CRITICAL THICKNESSES/MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW RAIN SHWRS SHOULD MIX
WITH OR CHG TO SNW SHWRS FM W-E THRU THE DAY...HOWEVER DEEP
MOISTURE SHOULD BE EXITING BY THE TIME THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES.
WITH A WRM GROUND NO SGFNT ACCUMS EXPD. COLD AIR ADVCTN SHOULD
RESULT IN FALLING TEMPS THRU THE DAY TUE...WITH 850MB TEMPS
DROPPING TO ARND -10 DEG C BY TUE EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUES NIGHT BRINGING
TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE LOW 20S AND TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH.
SIGNIFICANTLY LOW MODEL SPREAD FOR WEDS MORNING...SO BASICALLY JUST
TWEAKED TEMPS HERE AND THERE. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN THE LOW
LEVELS THROUGH 06Z WEDS TO CREATE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN
OUR SE RIDGES. NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION...
HOWEVER...UPWARDS OF A HALF AN INCH COULD ACCUMULATE ON GRASSY
SURFACES.

MID-WEEK FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRYING AND WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT REAL RISK OF SHOWERS WILL
RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO SPRING FOR THE LONG TERM...WITH THE RISK FOR SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN OH WILL SLOW THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE
QUICKLY MOVES NORTHEAST FROM KENTUCKY. GENERAL VFR WILL DETERIORATE
OVER NIGHT TO MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN WITH IFR CONDITIONS LATE NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE HEADS EAST FRONT WILL ACCELERATE
TUESDAY MORNING WITH COLD ADVECTION CHANGING RAIN TO SNOW FOR A TIME
BEFORE ENDING. EXPECT IFR NOW FOR A TIME AT KFKL AND KDUJ BEFORE
DRIER AIR LIFTS CIGS AND VSBY ALL PORTS MIDDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS TO 25 KTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR 18-24Z.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERAL VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/10






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 142259
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
659 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN EXITING SHRTWV WAS ALLOWING FOR A DCR IN SHWR COVG THIS EVE.
THIS SHOULD CONT UNTIL THE APRCH OF THE NEXT WAVE LTR TNGT...WITH
WDSPRD SHWRS RTNG. A CDFNT IS ALSO EXPD TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACRS
THE AREA TNGT INTO ERLY TUE MRNG. MDLS PROGS ALSO SHOW A SFC WAVE
DVLPG ALG THE FNT BY TUE MRNG IN RESPONSE TO AN APRCHG UPR
TROF...WHICH SHOULD FURTHER SLOW THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE FNT.

CRITICAL THICKNESSES/MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW RAIN SHWRS SHOULD MIX
WITH OR CHG TO SNW SHWRS FM W-E THRU THE DAY...HOWEVER DEEP
MOISTURE SHOULD BE EXITING BY THE TIME THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES.
WITH A WRM GROUND NO SGFNT ACCUMS EXPD. COLD AIR ADVCTN SHOULD
RESULT IN FALLING TEMPS THRU THE DAY TUE...WITH 850MB TEMPS
DROPPING TO ARND -10 DEG C BY TUE EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUES NIGHT BRINGING
TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE LOW 20S AND TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH.
SIGNIFICANTLY LOW MODEL SPREAD FOR WEDS MORNING...SO BASICALLY JUST
TWEAKED TEMPS HERE AND THERE. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN THE LOW
LEVELS THROUGH 06Z WEDS TO CREATE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN
OUR SE RIDGES. NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION...
HOWEVER...UPWARDS OF A HALF AN INCH COULD ACCUMULATE ON GRASSY
SURFACES.

MID-WEEK FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRYING AND WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT REAL RISK OF SHOWERS WILL
RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO SPRING FOR THE LONG TERM...WITH THE RISK FOR SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN OH WILL SLOW THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE
QUICKLY MOVES NORTHEAST FROM KENTUCKY. GENERAL VFR WILL DETERIORATE
OVER NIGHT TO MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN WITH IFR CONDITIONS LATE NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE HEADS EAST FRONT WILL ACCELERATE
TUESDAY MORNING WITH COLD ADVECTION CHANGING RAIN TO SNOW FOR A TIME
BEFORE ENDING. EXPECT IFR NOW FOR A TIME AT KFKL AND KDUJ BEFORE
DRIER AIR LIFTS CIGS AND VSBY ALL PORTS MIDDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS TO 25 KTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR 18-24Z.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERAL VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/10







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 141831
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
231 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED STORMS
TO THE AREA LATER THROUGH THE NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN
ON TUESDAY WITH THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN OHIO
IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK ASCENT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS
SLICING THROUGH WESTERN OHIO AT THE MOMENT. ONE SURFACE WAVE DOWN
THIS FRONT HAS MOVED NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ALONG THE FRONT AND
IS HELPING TO ACCENTUATE LIFT AND FOCUS INSTABILITY ALONG THE
FRONT WEST OF CLEVELAND AND NORTHWARD INTO LAKE ERIE INTO A LINE
OF FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. LUCKILY ENOUGH FOR
US...THIS WAVE ALONG THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD...WITH
ONLY ENHANCED MOISTURE ADVECTION AND WEAK LIFT LIKELY TO GENERATE
SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

A SECOND WAVE ALONG THE FRONT DEVELOPS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK LATE THIS EVENING
AND TRACKS BASICALLY RIGHT OVER PITTSBURGH AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIFT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE WILL GENERATE A SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS
THAT WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. IT IS BEHIND THIS WAVE THAT THE FLOW WILL FINALLY TURN
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND ALLOW THE MUCH ADVERTISED COLD FRONT
TO TRUDGE EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY.

DRASTICALLY COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION...UNDERCUTTING THE
WARMER/MORE MOIST AIR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION TO LIKELY
TO CONTINUE AS THE MOIST AIR IS EVACUATED THROUGH THE
MORNING...WHICH WILL SLOWLY TREND THE P-TYPE TOWARD SNOW FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. BECAUSE OF THERMAL PROFILES AND WARM AIR
ALOFT...A PERIOD OF SLEET CERTAINLY WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION. HOWEVER...WHILE MOST AREAS SHOULD START TO CHANGE TO
SNOW BY AFTERNOON...ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL GIVEN MARGINAL
AIR TEMPERATURES AND UNFAVORABLE GROUND TEMPERATURES DUE TO RECENT
WARMTH.

FOR THE RIDGES...AS THE PROFILES COOL BY LATE AFTERNOON...LAPSE
RATES WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE LOW LEVELS WHILE MOISTURE REMAINS. IT
WILL TAKE VIRTUALLY ALL DAY FOR THE LOW LEVEL PROFILE TO COOL
BELOW FREEZING...HOWEVER BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE TOP OF THE
SATURATED LAYER LIKELY INTERSECTING THE BOTTOM OF THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH LAYER...SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD START TO PICK UP ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR SOME ACCUMULATION. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUES NIGHT BRINGING
TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE LOW 20S AND TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH.
SIGNIFICANTLY LOW MODEL SPREAD FOR WEDS MORNING...SO BASICALLY JUST
TWEAKED TEMPS HERE AND THERE. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN THE LOW
LEVELS THROUGH 06Z WEDS TO CREATE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN
OUR SE RIDGES. NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATION...HOWEVER...A UPWARDS OF A HALF AN INCH COULD
ACCUMULATE ON GRASSY SURFACES.

MID-WEEK FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRYING AND WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT REAL RISK OF SHOWERS WILL
RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO SPRING FOR THE LONG TERM...WITH THE RISK FOR SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS THAT ARE MOVING
INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD GUSTY SW WINDS WILL
TREND TOWARD THE WEST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT. A WAVE
ALONG THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A SECONDARY INCREASE IN SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD TREND
ALL SITES FROM MVFR TOWARD IFR BY MORNING. THEN MUCH COLDER AIR
MOVES IN...WINDS TURN NW AND BECOME GUSTY. PRECIP SHOULD TREND
TOWARD SNOW SHOWERS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON UNDER CONTINUED IFR
CONDITIONS. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS
REMOVED FROM THE AREA...WHICH WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 141831
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
231 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED STORMS
TO THE AREA LATER THROUGH THE NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN
ON TUESDAY WITH THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN OHIO
IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK ASCENT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS
SLICING THROUGH WESTERN OHIO AT THE MOMENT. ONE SURFACE WAVE DOWN
THIS FRONT HAS MOVED NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ALONG THE FRONT AND
IS HELPING TO ACCENTUATE LIFT AND FOCUS INSTABILITY ALONG THE
FRONT WEST OF CLEVELAND AND NORTHWARD INTO LAKE ERIE INTO A LINE
OF FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. LUCKILY ENOUGH FOR
US...THIS WAVE ALONG THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD...WITH
ONLY ENHANCED MOISTURE ADVECTION AND WEAK LIFT LIKELY TO GENERATE
SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

A SECOND WAVE ALONG THE FRONT DEVELOPS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK LATE THIS EVENING
AND TRACKS BASICALLY RIGHT OVER PITTSBURGH AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIFT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE WILL GENERATE A SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS
THAT WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. IT IS BEHIND THIS WAVE THAT THE FLOW WILL FINALLY TURN
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND ALLOW THE MUCH ADVERTISED COLD FRONT
TO TRUDGE EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY.

DRASTICALLY COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION...UNDERCUTTING THE
WARMER/MORE MOIST AIR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION TO LIKELY
TO CONTINUE AS THE MOIST AIR IS EVACUATED THROUGH THE
MORNING...WHICH WILL SLOWLY TREND THE P-TYPE TOWARD SNOW FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. BECAUSE OF THERMAL PROFILES AND WARM AIR
ALOFT...A PERIOD OF SLEET CERTAINLY WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION. HOWEVER...WHILE MOST AREAS SHOULD START TO CHANGE TO
SNOW BY AFTERNOON...ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL GIVEN MARGINAL
AIR TEMPERATURES AND UNFAVORABLE GROUND TEMPERATURES DUE TO RECENT
WARMTH.

FOR THE RIDGES...AS THE PROFILES COOL BY LATE AFTERNOON...LAPSE
RATES WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE LOW LEVELS WHILE MOISTURE REMAINS. IT
WILL TAKE VIRTUALLY ALL DAY FOR THE LOW LEVEL PROFILE TO COOL
BELOW FREEZING...HOWEVER BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE TOP OF THE
SATURATED LAYER LIKELY INTERSECTING THE BOTTOM OF THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH LAYER...SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD START TO PICK UP ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR SOME ACCUMULATION. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUES NIGHT BRINGING
TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE LOW 20S AND TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH.
SIGNIFICANTLY LOW MODEL SPREAD FOR WEDS MORNING...SO BASICALLY JUST
TWEAKED TEMPS HERE AND THERE. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN THE LOW
LEVELS THROUGH 06Z WEDS TO CREATE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN
OUR SE RIDGES. NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATION...HOWEVER...A UPWARDS OF A HALF AN INCH COULD
ACCUMULATE ON GRASSY SURFACES.

MID-WEEK FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRYING AND WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT REAL RISK OF SHOWERS WILL
RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO SPRING FOR THE LONG TERM...WITH THE RISK FOR SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS THAT ARE MOVING
INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD GUSTY SW WINDS WILL
TREND TOWARD THE WEST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT. A WAVE
ALONG THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A SECONDARY INCREASE IN SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD TREND
ALL SITES FROM MVFR TOWARD IFR BY MORNING. THEN MUCH COLDER AIR
MOVES IN...WINDS TURN NW AND BECOME GUSTY. PRECIP SHOULD TREND
TOWARD SNOW SHOWERS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON UNDER CONTINUED IFR
CONDITIONS. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS
REMOVED FROM THE AREA...WHICH WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 141740
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
140 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED STORMS
TO THE AREA LATER THROUGH THE NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN
ON TUESDAY WITH THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN OHIO
IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK ASCENT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS
SLICING THROUGH WESTERN OHIO AT THE MOMENT. ONE SURFACE WAVE DOWN
THIS FRONT HAS MOVED NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ALONG THE FRONT AND
IS HELPING TO ACCENTUATE LIFT AND FOCUS INSTABILITY ALONG THE
FRONT WEST OF CLEVELAND AND NORTHWARD INTO LAKE ERIE INTO A LINE
OF FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. LUCKILY ENOUGH FOR
US...THIS WAVE ALONG THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD...WITH
ONLY ENHANCED MOISTURE ADVECTION AND WEAK LIFT LIKELY TO GENERATE
SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

A SECOND WAVE ALONG THE FRONT DEVELOPS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK LATE THIS EVENING
AND TRACKS BASICALLY RIGHT OVER PITTSBURGH AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIFT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE WILL GENERATE A SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS
THAT WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. IT IS BEHIND THIS WAVE THAT THE FLOW WILL FINALLY TURN
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND ALLOW THE MUCH ADVERTISED COLD FRONT
TO TRUDGE EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY.

DRASTICALLY COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION...UNDERCUTTING THE
WARMER/MORE MOIST AIR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION TO LIKELY
TO CONTINUE AS THE MOIST AIR IS EVACUATED THROUGH THE
MORNING...WHICH WILL SLOWLY TREND THE P-TYPE TOWARD SNOW FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. BECAUSE OF THERMAL PROFILES AND WARM AIR
ALOFT...A PERIOD OF SLEET CERTAINLY WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION. HOWEVER...WHILE MOST AREAS SHOULD START TO CHANGE TO
SNOW BY AFTERNOON...ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL GIVEN MARGINAL
AIR TEMPERATURES AND UNFAVORABLE GROUND TEMPERATURES DUE TO RECENT
WARMTH.

FOR THE RIDGES...AS THE PROFILES COOL BY LATE AFTERNOON...LAPSE
RATES WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE LOW LEVELS WHILE MOISTURE REMAINS. IT
WILL TAKE VIRTUALLY ALL DAY FOR THE LOW LEVEL PROFILE TO COOL
BELOW FREEZING...HOWEVER BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE TOP OF THE
SATURATED LAYER LIKELY INTERSECTING THE BOTTOM OF THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH LAYER...SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD START TO PICK UP ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR SOME ACCUMULATION. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. THE CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND WINDS
WILL RELAX. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY RUSH IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO CHANGE POST FRONTAL RAIN
SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS. LOOKING WESTWARD...FRONT IS SEPARATING A
WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS WITH READINGS EAST OF THE FRONT IN THE MID
60S TO TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT AMOUNT OF QPF MODELS ARE CREATING
BEHIND THE FRONT. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS AS IF THERE IS A PERIOD
DIRECTLY BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE THE MODELS ARE OVER DOING THE
AMOUNT OF LIFT. THIS SHORT PERIOD OF STRONG OMEGA IS LIKELY
CAUSING AN OVER AMPLIFICATION OF QPF AMOUNTS TUESDAY MORNING.
TEMPS WILL BE VERY TRICKY ON TUESDAY...LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
INITIALLY SHOWING A RAPID DROP OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH
FROPA...AS A SHALLOW LAYER OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR SETTLES IN. THIS
FEATURE SHOWS UP WELL WITH AN EXAMINATION OF LAYERED THICKNESSES.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS WILL BECOME COLD ENOUGH FIRST TO SUPPORT
SNOW...HOWEVER THE COLD MID LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE LAGGING BEHIND BY
ABOUT 3 HOURS. THIS SETUP WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW WHICH WOULD EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO ALL SNOW. THE OTHER
QUESTION IS HOW FAR DO TEMPS DROP AND WILL THERE BE ANY RECOVERY
DURING THE DAY WITH STRONG CAA ONGOING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

THE NEXT HEADACHE WILL ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. VERY COLD AIR WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH DURING THIS TIME AND MODELS ARE
HINTING AT A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS.
INVERSIONS TUESDAY EVENING ARE PLENTY DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LES.

INVERSIONS QUICKLY DROP TUESDAY NIGHT AS WINDS ALOFT VEER TO THE
NORTH AND A STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL BRING A QUICK END TO ANY SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP.

COLD AIR WILL EVACUATE TOWARD THE NORTH WEDNESDAY...THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A QUICK DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A MODERATION IN
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO SPRING FOR THE LONG TERM...WITH THE RISK FOR SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS THAT ARE MOVING
INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD GUSTY SW WINDS WILL
TREND TOWARD THE WEST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT. A WAVE
ALONG THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A SECONDARY INCREASE IN SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD TREND
ALL SITES FROM MVFR TOWARD IFR BY MORNING. THEN MUCH COLDER AIR
MOVES IN...WINDS TURN NW AND BECOME GUSTY. PRECIP SHOULD TREND
TOWARD SNOW SHOWERS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON UNDER CONTINUED IFR
CONDITIONS. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS
REMOVED FROM THE AREA...WHICH WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 141740
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
140 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED STORMS
TO THE AREA LATER THROUGH THE NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN
ON TUESDAY WITH THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN OHIO
IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK ASCENT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS
SLICING THROUGH WESTERN OHIO AT THE MOMENT. ONE SURFACE WAVE DOWN
THIS FRONT HAS MOVED NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ALONG THE FRONT AND
IS HELPING TO ACCENTUATE LIFT AND FOCUS INSTABILITY ALONG THE
FRONT WEST OF CLEVELAND AND NORTHWARD INTO LAKE ERIE INTO A LINE
OF FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. LUCKILY ENOUGH FOR
US...THIS WAVE ALONG THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD...WITH
ONLY ENHANCED MOISTURE ADVECTION AND WEAK LIFT LIKELY TO GENERATE
SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

A SECOND WAVE ALONG THE FRONT DEVELOPS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK LATE THIS EVENING
AND TRACKS BASICALLY RIGHT OVER PITTSBURGH AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIFT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE WILL GENERATE A SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS
THAT WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. IT IS BEHIND THIS WAVE THAT THE FLOW WILL FINALLY TURN
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND ALLOW THE MUCH ADVERTISED COLD FRONT
TO TRUDGE EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY.

DRASTICALLY COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION...UNDERCUTTING THE
WARMER/MORE MOIST AIR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION TO LIKELY
TO CONTINUE AS THE MOIST AIR IS EVACUATED THROUGH THE
MORNING...WHICH WILL SLOWLY TREND THE P-TYPE TOWARD SNOW FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. BECAUSE OF THERMAL PROFILES AND WARM AIR
ALOFT...A PERIOD OF SLEET CERTAINLY WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION. HOWEVER...WHILE MOST AREAS SHOULD START TO CHANGE TO
SNOW BY AFTERNOON...ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL GIVEN MARGINAL
AIR TEMPERATURES AND UNFAVORABLE GROUND TEMPERATURES DUE TO RECENT
WARMTH.

FOR THE RIDGES...AS THE PROFILES COOL BY LATE AFTERNOON...LAPSE
RATES WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE LOW LEVELS WHILE MOISTURE REMAINS. IT
WILL TAKE VIRTUALLY ALL DAY FOR THE LOW LEVEL PROFILE TO COOL
BELOW FREEZING...HOWEVER BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE TOP OF THE
SATURATED LAYER LIKELY INTERSECTING THE BOTTOM OF THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH LAYER...SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD START TO PICK UP ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR SOME ACCUMULATION. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. THE CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND WINDS
WILL RELAX. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY RUSH IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO CHANGE POST FRONTAL RAIN
SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS. LOOKING WESTWARD...FRONT IS SEPARATING A
WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS WITH READINGS EAST OF THE FRONT IN THE MID
60S TO TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT AMOUNT OF QPF MODELS ARE CREATING
BEHIND THE FRONT. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS AS IF THERE IS A PERIOD
DIRECTLY BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE THE MODELS ARE OVER DOING THE
AMOUNT OF LIFT. THIS SHORT PERIOD OF STRONG OMEGA IS LIKELY
CAUSING AN OVER AMPLIFICATION OF QPF AMOUNTS TUESDAY MORNING.
TEMPS WILL BE VERY TRICKY ON TUESDAY...LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
INITIALLY SHOWING A RAPID DROP OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH
FROPA...AS A SHALLOW LAYER OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR SETTLES IN. THIS
FEATURE SHOWS UP WELL WITH AN EXAMINATION OF LAYERED THICKNESSES.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS WILL BECOME COLD ENOUGH FIRST TO SUPPORT
SNOW...HOWEVER THE COLD MID LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE LAGGING BEHIND BY
ABOUT 3 HOURS. THIS SETUP WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW WHICH WOULD EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO ALL SNOW. THE OTHER
QUESTION IS HOW FAR DO TEMPS DROP AND WILL THERE BE ANY RECOVERY
DURING THE DAY WITH STRONG CAA ONGOING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

THE NEXT HEADACHE WILL ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. VERY COLD AIR WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH DURING THIS TIME AND MODELS ARE
HINTING AT A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS.
INVERSIONS TUESDAY EVENING ARE PLENTY DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LES.

INVERSIONS QUICKLY DROP TUESDAY NIGHT AS WINDS ALOFT VEER TO THE
NORTH AND A STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL BRING A QUICK END TO ANY SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP.

COLD AIR WILL EVACUATE TOWARD THE NORTH WEDNESDAY...THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A QUICK DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A MODERATION IN
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO SPRING FOR THE LONG TERM...WITH THE RISK FOR SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS THAT ARE MOVING
INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD GUSTY SW WINDS WILL
TREND TOWARD THE WEST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT. A WAVE
ALONG THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A SECONDARY INCREASE IN SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD TREND
ALL SITES FROM MVFR TOWARD IFR BY MORNING. THEN MUCH COLDER AIR
MOVES IN...WINDS TURN NW AND BECOME GUSTY. PRECIP SHOULD TREND
TOWARD SNOW SHOWERS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON UNDER CONTINUED IFR
CONDITIONS. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS
REMOVED FROM THE AREA...WHICH WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 141615
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1215 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA
LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR TUESDAY WITH THE CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS REACHED WESTERN OHIO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. ONE WAVE TRACKING DOWN THE FRONT WITH THE FIRST IN A
SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL JETLETS AND MID-LEVEL WAVES IS QUICKLY
TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD DOWN THE FRONT. THE BULK OF THE QPF IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE IS LIKELY TO FALL WEST AND NORTH OF THE
AREA...WHILE THE WAVE ITSELF ACTUALLY HAS MANAGED TO SLOW THE
FRONT A BIT THROUGH THE MORNING. HOWEVER...THE SHIELD OF SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD AND ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND ONGOING RAIN IN THE AREAS WHERE
MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED
THIS AFTERNOON...IT SEEMS LARGE SCALE DESTABILIZATION IS UNLIKELY
UNTIL YOU GET WEST OF OUR AREA AND CLOSER TO THE ACTUAL SURFACE
FRONT. AS SUCH...THUNDERSTORM WORDING WAS ROLLED BACK A CATEGORY
YET AGAIN...PARTICULARLY GIVEN THAT NONE HAS BEEN NOTED INT HE
REGION...EVEN IN THE MORE UNSTABLE/LESS RAIN COOLED AREAS. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. THE CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND WINDS
WILL RELAX. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY RUSH IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO CHANGE POST FRONTAL RAIN
SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS. LOOKING WESTWARD...FRONT IS SEPARATING A
WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS WITH READINGS EAST OF THE FRONT IN THE MID
60S TO TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT AMOUNT OF QPF MODELS ARE CREATING
BEHIND THE FRONT. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS AS IF THERE IS A PERIOD
DIRECTLY BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE THE MODELS ARE OVER DOING THE
AMOUNT OF LIFT. THIS SHORT PERIOD OF STRONG OMEGA IS LIKELY
CAUSING AN OVER AMPLIFICATION OF QPF AMOUNTS TUESDAY MORNING.
TEMPS WILL BE VERY TRICKY ON TUESDAY...LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
INITIALLY SHOWING A RAPID DROP OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH
FROPA...AS A SHALLOW LAYER OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR SETTLES IN. THIS
FEATURE SHOWS UP WELL WITH AN EXAMINATION OF LAYERED THICKNESSES.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS WILL BECOME COLD ENOUGH FIRST TO SUPPORT
SNOW...HOWEVER THE COLD MID LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE LAGGING BEHIND BY
ABOUT 3 HOURS. THIS SETUP WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW WHICH WOULD EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO ALL SNOW. THE OTHER
QUESTION IS HOW FAR DO TEMPS DROP AND WILL THERE BE ANY RECOVERY
DURING THE DAY WITH STRONG CAA ONGOING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

THE NEXT HEADACHE WILL ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. VERY COLD AIR WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH DURING THIS TIME AND MODELS ARE
HINTING AT A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS.
INVERSIONS TUESDAY EVENING ARE PLENTY DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LES.

INVERSIONS QUICKLY DROP TUESDAY NIGHT AS WINDS ALOFT VEER TO THE
NORTH AND A STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL BRING A QUICK END TO ANY SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP.

COLD AIR WILL EVACUATE TOWARD THE NORTH WEDNESDAY...THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A QUICK DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A MODERATION IN
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO SPRING FOR THE LONG TERM...WITH THE RISK FOR SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN OF THE MRNG WL BE LLVL WIND SHEAR AS LLVL
JET STREAKS ACRS THE REGION.  MIXING AFTER DAYBREAK WL THEN SPPRT
SFC GUSTS OF 25 TO 35KT.

OTHERWISE...VFR CAN BE EXPECTED INTO AFTN...BUT CONDITION
DETERIORATION SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER AS SHWRS DVLP WITH
THE ADVN OF A CDFNT ACRS THE MIDWEST.  WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
RESTRICTIONS ARE FORECAST AS EVE FALLS.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL COLD HIGH PRES BLDS LTR ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 141615
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1215 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA
LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR TUESDAY WITH THE CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS REACHED WESTERN OHIO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. ONE WAVE TRACKING DOWN THE FRONT WITH THE FIRST IN A
SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL JETLETS AND MID-LEVEL WAVES IS QUICKLY
TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD DOWN THE FRONT. THE BULK OF THE QPF IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE IS LIKELY TO FALL WEST AND NORTH OF THE
AREA...WHILE THE WAVE ITSELF ACTUALLY HAS MANAGED TO SLOW THE
FRONT A BIT THROUGH THE MORNING. HOWEVER...THE SHIELD OF SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD AND ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND ONGOING RAIN IN THE AREAS WHERE
MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED
THIS AFTERNOON...IT SEEMS LARGE SCALE DESTABILIZATION IS UNLIKELY
UNTIL YOU GET WEST OF OUR AREA AND CLOSER TO THE ACTUAL SURFACE
FRONT. AS SUCH...THUNDERSTORM WORDING WAS ROLLED BACK A CATEGORY
YET AGAIN...PARTICULARLY GIVEN THAT NONE HAS BEEN NOTED INT HE
REGION...EVEN IN THE MORE UNSTABLE/LESS RAIN COOLED AREAS. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. THE CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND WINDS
WILL RELAX. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY RUSH IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO CHANGE POST FRONTAL RAIN
SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS. LOOKING WESTWARD...FRONT IS SEPARATING A
WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS WITH READINGS EAST OF THE FRONT IN THE MID
60S TO TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT AMOUNT OF QPF MODELS ARE CREATING
BEHIND THE FRONT. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS AS IF THERE IS A PERIOD
DIRECTLY BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE THE MODELS ARE OVER DOING THE
AMOUNT OF LIFT. THIS SHORT PERIOD OF STRONG OMEGA IS LIKELY
CAUSING AN OVER AMPLIFICATION OF QPF AMOUNTS TUESDAY MORNING.
TEMPS WILL BE VERY TRICKY ON TUESDAY...LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
INITIALLY SHOWING A RAPID DROP OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH
FROPA...AS A SHALLOW LAYER OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR SETTLES IN. THIS
FEATURE SHOWS UP WELL WITH AN EXAMINATION OF LAYERED THICKNESSES.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS WILL BECOME COLD ENOUGH FIRST TO SUPPORT
SNOW...HOWEVER THE COLD MID LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE LAGGING BEHIND BY
ABOUT 3 HOURS. THIS SETUP WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW WHICH WOULD EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO ALL SNOW. THE OTHER
QUESTION IS HOW FAR DO TEMPS DROP AND WILL THERE BE ANY RECOVERY
DURING THE DAY WITH STRONG CAA ONGOING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

THE NEXT HEADACHE WILL ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. VERY COLD AIR WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH DURING THIS TIME AND MODELS ARE
HINTING AT A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS.
INVERSIONS TUESDAY EVENING ARE PLENTY DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LES.

INVERSIONS QUICKLY DROP TUESDAY NIGHT AS WINDS ALOFT VEER TO THE
NORTH AND A STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL BRING A QUICK END TO ANY SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP.

COLD AIR WILL EVACUATE TOWARD THE NORTH WEDNESDAY...THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A QUICK DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A MODERATION IN
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO SPRING FOR THE LONG TERM...WITH THE RISK FOR SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN OF THE MRNG WL BE LLVL WIND SHEAR AS LLVL
JET STREAKS ACRS THE REGION.  MIXING AFTER DAYBREAK WL THEN SPPRT
SFC GUSTS OF 25 TO 35KT.

OTHERWISE...VFR CAN BE EXPECTED INTO AFTN...BUT CONDITION
DETERIORATION SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER AS SHWRS DVLP WITH
THE ADVN OF A CDFNT ACRS THE MIDWEST.  WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
RESTRICTIONS ARE FORECAST AS EVE FALLS.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL COLD HIGH PRES BLDS LTR ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







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