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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 261918
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
218 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL END WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. A SECOND...WEAKER SYSTEM WILL USHER IN COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING SNOW SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW WILL QUICKLY SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW EXPECTED TO
END AT PITTSBURGH WITHIN THE HOUR. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO WILL
BE POSSIBLE FURTHER EAST BEFORE SNOW FINALLY ENDS BY SUNSET. WILL
LEAVE ALL ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS AS IS AT THIS TIME.

THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL PIVOT OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. WHILE
COLD ADVECTION/NW FLOW WILL BE ONGOING...THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE
IN THE LOW LEVELS TO SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FORECAST NEAR MET VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ON THURSDAY. BY AFTERNOON...A MORE
FAVORABLE NORTHWEST FETCH LOOKS TO BEGIN TO SETUP...WITH LAKE ERIE
SUPPORT. WITH THIS IN MIND...BROUGHT POP CHANCES UP THROUGH
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS
LIFTING INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME
ACCUMULATION WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80 AND
IN THE RIDGES.

SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY HELPING TO DRY OUT THE
ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THESE
TOO WILL END AS SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRIER AIR TAKES OVER. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES ON FRIDAY...WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL BY SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40`S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER WARM UP FOR THE
WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW MUCH PRECIP
WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH PASSING WAVES IN THE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH A
SHOWER POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOOKING LIKE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AREA WILL DRY OUT MONDAY WITH ANOTHER COOL DOWN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR TO CONTINUE AT MOST PA AND WV AIRPORTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
OHIO AIRPORTS MOSTLY VFR.  SNOW SHOULD BE ENDING RAPIDLY AND
VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR IN PA AND WV. CEILINGS
FORECAST TO REMAIN IFR INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS THEN IMPROVE
TO MVFR AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVE IN AS SYSTEM PASSES AND WINDS
SHIFT MORE NORTHWEST

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY IN -SHSN...LINGERING ACROSS
NW PA INTO FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY IN -SHRA WITH THE NEXT
FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ074-
     076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ023-
     073-075.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ023-
     041.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ021-
     022.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 261918
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
218 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL END WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. A SECOND...WEAKER SYSTEM WILL USHER IN COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING SNOW SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW WILL QUICKLY SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW EXPECTED TO
END AT PITTSBURGH WITHIN THE HOUR. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO WILL
BE POSSIBLE FURTHER EAST BEFORE SNOW FINALLY ENDS BY SUNSET. WILL
LEAVE ALL ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS AS IS AT THIS TIME.

THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL PIVOT OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. WHILE
COLD ADVECTION/NW FLOW WILL BE ONGOING...THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE
IN THE LOW LEVELS TO SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FORECAST NEAR MET VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ON THURSDAY. BY AFTERNOON...A MORE
FAVORABLE NORTHWEST FETCH LOOKS TO BEGIN TO SETUP...WITH LAKE ERIE
SUPPORT. WITH THIS IN MIND...BROUGHT POP CHANCES UP THROUGH
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS
LIFTING INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME
ACCUMULATION WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80 AND
IN THE RIDGES.

SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY HELPING TO DRY OUT THE
ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THESE
TOO WILL END AS SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRIER AIR TAKES OVER. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES ON FRIDAY...WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL BY SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40`S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER WARM UP FOR THE
WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW MUCH PRECIP
WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH PASSING WAVES IN THE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH A
SHOWER POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOOKING LIKE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AREA WILL DRY OUT MONDAY WITH ANOTHER COOL DOWN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR TO CONTINUE AT MOST PA AND WV AIRPORTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
OHIO AIRPORTS MOSTLY VFR.  SNOW SHOULD BE ENDING RAPIDLY AND
VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR IN PA AND WV. CEILINGS
FORECAST TO REMAIN IFR INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS THEN IMPROVE
TO MVFR AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVE IN AS SYSTEM PASSES AND WINDS
SHIFT MORE NORTHWEST

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY IN -SHSN...LINGERING ACROSS
NW PA INTO FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY IN -SHRA WITH THE NEXT
FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ074-
     076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ023-
     073-075.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ023-
     041.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ021-
     022.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 261820
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
120 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL END WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. A SECOND...WEAKER SYSTEM WILL USHER IN COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING SNOW SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LITTLE TO UPDATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW WILL QUICKLY SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW EXPECTED TO
END AT PITTSBURGH WITHIN THE HOUR. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO WILL
BE POSSIBLE FURTHER EAST BEFORE SNOW FINALLY ENDS BY SUNSET. WILL
LEAVE ALL ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS AS IS AT THIS TIME.

THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL PIVOT OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. WHILE
COLD ADVECTION/NW FLOW WILL BE ONGOING...THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE
IN THE LOW LEVELS TO SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FORECAST NEAR MET VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY...INCREASING
LARGE SCALE ASCENSION AND BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR
THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE IN SPEED AND BECOME
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY. THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE BEGINS TO LOWER AND LAKE
ERIE WILL COME INTO PLAY. WILL BRING POPS BACK IN ACROSS THE NORTH
AND RIDGES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

CAA CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. FOR
A TIME...WINDS ALOFT LOOK GOOD FOR LAKE INFLUENCES AND THE SNOW
GROWTH ZONE WILL DROP INTO AN AREA OF HIGHER SATURATION. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NORTH
AND RIDGES THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.

SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE
WILL DRY OUT DURING THE MORNING HOURS. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THESE
TOO WILL END AS SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRIER AIR TAKES OVER.

A COLD DAY FRIDAY WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER WARM UP FOR THE
WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW MUCH PRECIP
WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH PASSING WAVES IN THE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH A
SHOWER POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOOKING LIKE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AREA WILL DRY OUT MONDAY WITH ANOTHER COOL DOWN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR TO CONTINUE AT MOST PA AND WV AIRPORTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
OHIO AIRPORTS MOSTLY VFR.  SNOW SHOULD BE ENDING RAPIDLY AND
VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR IN PA AND WV. CEILINGS
FORECAST TO REMAIN IFR INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS THEN IMPROVE
TO MVFR AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVE IN AS SYSTEM PASSES AND WINDS
SHIFT MORE NORTHWEST

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY IN -SHSN...LINGERING ACROSS
NW PA INTO FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY IN -SHRA WITH THE NEXT
FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ074-
     076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ023-
     073-075.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ023-
     041.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ021-
     022.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 261820
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
120 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL END WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. A SECOND...WEAKER SYSTEM WILL USHER IN COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING SNOW SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LITTLE TO UPDATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW WILL QUICKLY SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW EXPECTED TO
END AT PITTSBURGH WITHIN THE HOUR. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO WILL
BE POSSIBLE FURTHER EAST BEFORE SNOW FINALLY ENDS BY SUNSET. WILL
LEAVE ALL ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS AS IS AT THIS TIME.

THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL PIVOT OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. WHILE
COLD ADVECTION/NW FLOW WILL BE ONGOING...THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE
IN THE LOW LEVELS TO SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FORECAST NEAR MET VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY...INCREASING
LARGE SCALE ASCENSION AND BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR
THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE IN SPEED AND BECOME
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY. THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE BEGINS TO LOWER AND LAKE
ERIE WILL COME INTO PLAY. WILL BRING POPS BACK IN ACROSS THE NORTH
AND RIDGES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

CAA CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. FOR
A TIME...WINDS ALOFT LOOK GOOD FOR LAKE INFLUENCES AND THE SNOW
GROWTH ZONE WILL DROP INTO AN AREA OF HIGHER SATURATION. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NORTH
AND RIDGES THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.

SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE
WILL DRY OUT DURING THE MORNING HOURS. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THESE
TOO WILL END AS SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRIER AIR TAKES OVER.

A COLD DAY FRIDAY WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER WARM UP FOR THE
WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW MUCH PRECIP
WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH PASSING WAVES IN THE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH A
SHOWER POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOOKING LIKE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AREA WILL DRY OUT MONDAY WITH ANOTHER COOL DOWN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR TO CONTINUE AT MOST PA AND WV AIRPORTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
OHIO AIRPORTS MOSTLY VFR.  SNOW SHOULD BE ENDING RAPIDLY AND
VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR IN PA AND WV. CEILINGS
FORECAST TO REMAIN IFR INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS THEN IMPROVE
TO MVFR AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVE IN AS SYSTEM PASSES AND WINDS
SHIFT MORE NORTHWEST

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY IN -SHSN...LINGERING ACROSS
NW PA INTO FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY IN -SHRA WITH THE NEXT
FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ074-
     076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ023-
     073-075.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ023-
     041.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ021-
     022.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 261800
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
100 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST
TODAY...BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW PRIMARILY TO AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF PITTSBURGH. A SECOND WEAKER SYSTEM WILL USHER IN COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING SNOW SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER JET RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 175 TO 200KTS MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION TODAY ENHANCING THE SNOWFALL TODAY. SFC LEVEL
TEMPERATURES STILL PRODUCING RAINFALL IN THE LOW ELEVATIONS AND IN
RIVER VALLEYS BUT SHOULD CHANGE OVER AS INTENSITIES INCREASE. THE
SNOW WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND BY 18Z BEST RATES WILL BE EXITING THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY LINGERING SNOW IN THE FAR EAST THIS EVENING WILL END QUICKLY
AS THE LIFT AND MOISTURE HEAD TOWARD THE COAST WITH THE EXITING
LOW. HUGE DRY SLOT WILL OVERTAKE THE ENTIRE AREA THIS EVENING AND
MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE WELL BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...
ENDING THE ATMOSPHERES ABILITY TO CREATE SNOW. CAA WILL BE GOING
ALL NIGHT...BUT WITH THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND A RATHER WEAK
AND UNORGANIZED FLOW ALOFT...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO
REDEVELOP.

FOR THE MOST PART...THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS DRY AS THE FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS UNORGANIZED AND MIXING HEIGHTS ARE JUST TOO LOW TO REACH
INTO THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY...INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENSION AND BRINGING ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLDER AIR THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE IN
SPEED AND BECOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY. THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE BEGINS
TO LOWER AND LAKE ERIE WILL COME INTO PLAY. WILL BRING POPS BACK
IN ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

CAA CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. FOR
A TIME...WINDS ALOFT LOOK GOOD FOR LAKE INFLUENCES AND THE SNOW
GROWTH ZONE WILL DROP INTO AN AREA OF HIGHER SATURATION. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NORTH
AND RIDGES THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.

SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE
WILL DRY OUT DURING THE MORNING HOURS. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THESE
TOO WILL END AS SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRIER AIR TAKES OVER.

A COLD DAY FRIDAY WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER WARM UP FOR THE
WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW MUCH PRECIP
WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH PASSING WAVES IN THE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH A
SHOWER POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOOKING LIKE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AREA WILL DRY OUT MONDAY WITH ANOTHER COOL DOWN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR TO CONTINUE AT MOST PA AND WV AIRPORTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
OHIO AIRPORTS MOSTLY VFR.  SNOW SHOULD BE ENDING RAPIDLY AND
VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR IN PA AND WV. CEILINGS
FORECAST TO REAMIN IFR INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS THEN IMPROVE
TO MVFR AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVE IN AS SYSTEM PASSES AND WINDS
SHIFT MORE NORTHWEST

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY IN -SHSN...LINGERING ACROSS
NW PA INTO FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY IN -SHRA WITH THE NEXT
FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ074-
     076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ023-
     073-075.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ023-
     041.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ021-
     022.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 261800
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
100 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST
TODAY...BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW PRIMARILY TO AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF PITTSBURGH. A SECOND WEAKER SYSTEM WILL USHER IN COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING SNOW SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER JET RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 175 TO 200KTS MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION TODAY ENHANCING THE SNOWFALL TODAY. SFC LEVEL
TEMPERATURES STILL PRODUCING RAINFALL IN THE LOW ELEVATIONS AND IN
RIVER VALLEYS BUT SHOULD CHANGE OVER AS INTENSITIES INCREASE. THE
SNOW WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND BY 18Z BEST RATES WILL BE EXITING THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY LINGERING SNOW IN THE FAR EAST THIS EVENING WILL END QUICKLY
AS THE LIFT AND MOISTURE HEAD TOWARD THE COAST WITH THE EXITING
LOW. HUGE DRY SLOT WILL OVERTAKE THE ENTIRE AREA THIS EVENING AND
MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE WELL BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...
ENDING THE ATMOSPHERES ABILITY TO CREATE SNOW. CAA WILL BE GOING
ALL NIGHT...BUT WITH THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND A RATHER WEAK
AND UNORGANIZED FLOW ALOFT...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO
REDEVELOP.

FOR THE MOST PART...THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS DRY AS THE FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS UNORGANIZED AND MIXING HEIGHTS ARE JUST TOO LOW TO REACH
INTO THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY...INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENSION AND BRINGING ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLDER AIR THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE IN
SPEED AND BECOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY. THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE BEGINS
TO LOWER AND LAKE ERIE WILL COME INTO PLAY. WILL BRING POPS BACK
IN ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

CAA CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. FOR
A TIME...WINDS ALOFT LOOK GOOD FOR LAKE INFLUENCES AND THE SNOW
GROWTH ZONE WILL DROP INTO AN AREA OF HIGHER SATURATION. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NORTH
AND RIDGES THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.

SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE
WILL DRY OUT DURING THE MORNING HOURS. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THESE
TOO WILL END AS SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRIER AIR TAKES OVER.

A COLD DAY FRIDAY WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER WARM UP FOR THE
WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW MUCH PRECIP
WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH PASSING WAVES IN THE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH A
SHOWER POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOOKING LIKE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AREA WILL DRY OUT MONDAY WITH ANOTHER COOL DOWN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR TO CONTINUE AT MOST PA AND WV AIRPORTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
OHIO AIRPORTS MOSTLY VFR.  SNOW SHOULD BE ENDING RAPIDLY AND
VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR IN PA AND WV. CEILINGS
FORECAST TO REAMIN IFR INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS THEN IMPROVE
TO MVFR AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVE IN AS SYSTEM PASSES AND WINDS
SHIFT MORE NORTHWEST

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY IN -SHSN...LINGERING ACROSS
NW PA INTO FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY IN -SHRA WITH THE NEXT
FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ074-
     076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ023-
     073-075.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ023-
     041.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ021-
     022.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 261351
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
851 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST
TODAY...BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW PRIMARILY TO AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF PITTSBURGH. A SECOND WEAKER SYSTEM WILL USHER IN COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING SNOW SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER JET RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 175 TO 200KTS MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION TODAY ENHANCING THE SNOWFALL TODAY. SFC LEVEL
TEMPERATURES STILL PRODUCING RAINFALL IN THE LOW ELEVATIONS AND IN
RIVER VALLEYS BUT SHOULD CHANGE OVER AS INTENSITIES INCREASE. THE
SNOW WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND BY 18Z BEST RATES WILL BE EXITING THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY LINGERING SNOW IN THE FAR EAST THIS EVENING WILL END QUICKLY
AS THE LIFT AND MOISTURE HEAD TOWARD THE COAST WITH THE EXITING
LOW. HUGE DRY SLOT WILL OVERTAKE THE ENTIRE AREA THIS EVENING AND
MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE WELL BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...
ENDING THE ATMOSPHERES ABILITY TO CREATE SNOW. CAA WILL BE GOING
ALL NIGHT...BUT WITH THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND A RATHER WEAK
AND UNORGANIZED FLOW ALOFT...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO
REDEVELOP.

FOR THE MOST PART...THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS DRY AS THE FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS UNORGANIZED AND MIXING HEIGHTS ARE JUST TOO LOW TO REACH
INTO THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY...INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENSION AND BRINGING ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLDER AIR THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE IN
SPEED AND BECOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY. THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE BEGINS
TO LOWER AND LAKE ERIE WILL COME INTO PLAY. WILL BRING POPS BACK
IN ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

CAA CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. FOR
A TIME...WINDS ALOFT LOOK GOOD FOR LAKE INFLUENCES AND THE SNOW
GROWTH ZONE WILL DROP INTO AN AREA OF HIGHER SATURATION. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NORTH
AND RIDGES THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.

SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE
WILL DRY OUT DURING THE MORNING HOURS. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THESE
TOO WILL END AS SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRIER AIR TAKES OVER.

A COLD DAY FRIDAY WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER WARM UP FOR THE
WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW MUCH PRECIP
WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH PASSING WAVES IN THE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH A
SHOWER POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOOKING LIKE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AREA WILL DRY OUT MONDAY WITH ANOTHER COOL DOWN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DAWN AT MOST SITES. SNOW WILL
ADVANCE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND AFFECT
MOST SITES OTHER THAN KZZV IN BY LATE THIS MORNING. SOME
DETERIORATION TO IFR IS LIKELY GENERALLY EAST OF KPIT DURING THE
HEAVIEST WINDOW OF SNOW...HOWEVER THE WINDOW FOR ACCUMULATION AT
ALL SITES OTHER THAN KMGW SHOULD BE FAIRLY BRIEF. AS SNOW SHUTS
OFF BY EVENING...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR
STRATUS TO REMAIN A FIXTURE AT MOST SITES. FRIES

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL THRU THE WKEND WITH SVRL FAST MOVG
DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ074-
     076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ023-
     073-075.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ023-
     041.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ021-
     022.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 261351
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
851 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST
TODAY...BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW PRIMARILY TO AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF PITTSBURGH. A SECOND WEAKER SYSTEM WILL USHER IN COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING SNOW SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER JET RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 175 TO 200KTS MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION TODAY ENHANCING THE SNOWFALL TODAY. SFC LEVEL
TEMPERATURES STILL PRODUCING RAINFALL IN THE LOW ELEVATIONS AND IN
RIVER VALLEYS BUT SHOULD CHANGE OVER AS INTENSITIES INCREASE. THE
SNOW WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND BY 18Z BEST RATES WILL BE EXITING THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY LINGERING SNOW IN THE FAR EAST THIS EVENING WILL END QUICKLY
AS THE LIFT AND MOISTURE HEAD TOWARD THE COAST WITH THE EXITING
LOW. HUGE DRY SLOT WILL OVERTAKE THE ENTIRE AREA THIS EVENING AND
MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE WELL BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...
ENDING THE ATMOSPHERES ABILITY TO CREATE SNOW. CAA WILL BE GOING
ALL NIGHT...BUT WITH THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND A RATHER WEAK
AND UNORGANIZED FLOW ALOFT...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO
REDEVELOP.

FOR THE MOST PART...THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS DRY AS THE FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS UNORGANIZED AND MIXING HEIGHTS ARE JUST TOO LOW TO REACH
INTO THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY...INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENSION AND BRINGING ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLDER AIR THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE IN
SPEED AND BECOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY. THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE BEGINS
TO LOWER AND LAKE ERIE WILL COME INTO PLAY. WILL BRING POPS BACK
IN ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

CAA CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. FOR
A TIME...WINDS ALOFT LOOK GOOD FOR LAKE INFLUENCES AND THE SNOW
GROWTH ZONE WILL DROP INTO AN AREA OF HIGHER SATURATION. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NORTH
AND RIDGES THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.

SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE
WILL DRY OUT DURING THE MORNING HOURS. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THESE
TOO WILL END AS SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRIER AIR TAKES OVER.

A COLD DAY FRIDAY WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER WARM UP FOR THE
WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW MUCH PRECIP
WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH PASSING WAVES IN THE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH A
SHOWER POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOOKING LIKE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AREA WILL DRY OUT MONDAY WITH ANOTHER COOL DOWN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DAWN AT MOST SITES. SNOW WILL
ADVANCE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND AFFECT
MOST SITES OTHER THAN KZZV IN BY LATE THIS MORNING. SOME
DETERIORATION TO IFR IS LIKELY GENERALLY EAST OF KPIT DURING THE
HEAVIEST WINDOW OF SNOW...HOWEVER THE WINDOW FOR ACCUMULATION AT
ALL SITES OTHER THAN KMGW SHOULD BE FAIRLY BRIEF. AS SNOW SHUTS
OFF BY EVENING...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR
STRATUS TO REMAIN A FIXTURE AT MOST SITES. FRIES

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL THRU THE WKEND WITH SVRL FAST MOVG
DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ074-
     076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ023-
     073-075.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ023-
     041.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ021-
     022.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 261054
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
553 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND RIDE NORTHWARD
ALONG THE COAST TODAY...BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW PRIMARILY TO
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH. A SECOND WEAKER SYSTEM WILL
USHER IN COLDER TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING SNOW SHOWER CHANCES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE 00Z KPBZ RAOB INDICATED A VAST DEPTH WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
THAT REVEALED A VERITABLE CHASM BETWEEN THE TEMPERATURE AND
DEWPOINT CURVE IN THE VERTICAL. AS SUCH...A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR
HAS ESTABLISHED RESIDENCE OVER THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNRISE IN
ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM ADVANCING NORTHEASTWARD UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS LIKELY TO BE THE SOUTHEASTERN
RIDGES OF THE CWA...WHERE KPBZ WSR-88D IS ALREADY SHOWING RETURNS.
GIVEN THE COLUMN AT THE ONSET...THIS IS LIKELY MOSTLY STILL VIRGA
FOR THE MOMENT.

THIS VIRGA ON RADAR IS WELL OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM THAT IS
SET TO SWING UP THE EAST COAST TODAY. THE UPPER FEATURE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS SYSTEM IS STILL LARGELY A STRETCHING UPPER PV
FEATURE THAT HAS NOT EVEN YET MANAGED TO CONGEAL INTO A BALL IN
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND IS STILL WELL CONNECTED WITH
THE UPPER POLAR FRONT...WHICH SEEMS LIKELY TO PRECLUDE THIS PV
FEATURE FROM ACQUIRING SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH DEPTH TO LOWER THE
DYNAMICAL TROPOPAUSE TO ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT OCCLUSION OF THE
SYSTEM AS IT EJECTS UP THE EAST COAST. THIS HAS IMPORTANT
RAMIFICATIONS FOR OUR AREA AS WILL WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON MOISTURE
BEING WRAPPED BACK WESTWARD OVER OUR AREA TO ESTABLISH A
PRECIPITATION SHIELD OF ANY STRENGTH OR DURATION. GIVEN THAT AN
OCCLUSION AND SIGNIFICANT BENDING BACK OF THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT
INTO THE COLD AIR SEEMS RATHER UNLIKELY...THIS MEANS OUR WINDOW
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE FLEETING TODAY...AND THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE LARGELY CONVERGED ON THE WINDOW BEING ALMOST
EXCLUSIVELY THE 12Z-18Z TIME FRAME.

GIVEN THE EASTWARD ADVANCE OF THE UPPER FRONT...AND THE
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MIDDLE AND UPPER DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH
IT...IT SEEMS THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS
LIKELY TO BE VERY STARK. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH ALLOW FOR THE BACK
END OF THE PRECIPITATION TO PUSH WESTWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA BY LATE THIS MORNING...WHILE THE CANADIAN AND NAM
ARE NOT QUITE SO AGGRESSIVE...AND THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS
FAIL TO ALLOW IT TO EVEN REACH THE PA/OH BORDER. THAT SAID...MODEL
MASS FIELDS FROM THE NAM/CANADIAN/GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL RATHER SIMILAR
IN SUGGESTING A VERY STRONG UPWARD BRANCH OF A FRONTOGENETICAL
CIRCULATION SPREADING RATHER BROAD LIFT INTO THE AREA CENTERED
AROUND 15Z. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS ACROSS THIS FEATURE REVEAL A GOOD
BIT OF INSIGHT INTO WHAT IT COULD MEAN. FIRST OF ALL...WHILE LIFT
IS RATHER PERVASIVE AND SO IS SATURATION...ALL MODELS FAVOR LIFT
WELL ABOVE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE EVENT...EXCEPT IN THE
SOUTHEASTERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS MEANS THAT WHILE THE
MODELS ARE FAVORING GENERAL AMOUNTS OF BETWEEN 0.1 AND 0.25 INCHES
OF QPF FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN PA AND NORTHERN
WV...POOR MICROPHYSICAL DENDRITIC GROWTH AND WARM GROUND
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WORK AGAINST SNOW RATIOS BEING
PARTICULAR LILY EFFICIENT AT TURNING THAT QPF INTO SNOW.
ADDITIONALLY...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES MAY WELL TURN OUT TO BE
PROBLEMATIC. WHILE WE ARE STARTING OFF THE DAY A BIT COLDER THAN
THE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST AND WE MAY WELL WET BULB
COOLER...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO STRADDLE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF
THE EVENT IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THIS SET OF CIRCUMSTANCES IS
NOT EXACTLY A RECIPE FOR EFFICIENT ACCUMULATIONS. THAT
SAID...DAYTIME RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 7-9 TO 1 WERE FAVORED FOR
MOST OF THE AREA.

THE STORY QUICKLY CHANGES THE FARTHER SOUTHEAST YOU GO. NOT ONLY IS
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING DEEPER AND STRONGER...IT MUCH MORE CLOSELY
OVERLAYS THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. FURTHERMORE...A DEEP LAYER OF
WEAK STATIC STABILITY IS MANIFEST THROUGH THE STRONGEST PORTION OF
THE UPWARD BRANCH OF SAID CIRCULATION. UNFORTUNATELY FOR THE SNOW
LOVERS...THE RESIDENCE TIME OF THIS COMBINATION OF FEATURES OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IS ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 6
HOURS OR SO. THAT SAID...SNOW RATES OF AN INCH PER HOUR STILL SEEM
REASONABLE ON AVERAGE OVER ABOUT 6 HOURS GIVEN QPF EXPECTATIONS
AND RATIOS MORE ON THE ORDER OF 12-13 TO 1. THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO
YIELD UP TO AROUND 8 INCHES IN PORTIONS OF GARRETT AND TUCKER
COUNTIES...WITH THE NUMBERS QUICKLY FALLING OFF NORTHWEST OF
THERE.

GIVEN ALL THE AFOREMENTIONED LOGIC FOR ACCUMULATIONS...HEADLINES
WERE ALLOWED TO REMAIN AS IS FOR THIS SHIFT. WHILE ADVISORY
AMOUNTS GVEN THE QPF WITH MICROPHYSICAL PROBLEMS MAY NOT BE
REACHED IN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA...THE QPF SPREAD WAS
STILL WIDE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ADVISORY AMOUNTS
EVERYWHERE THEY WERE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED...AND GIVEN THE BASIC 100
PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW...IT MAY WELL BE A DISSERVICE TO CANCEL
SAID ADVISORIES WHEN IT IS STILL CLEARLY GOING TO SNOW...AND
LIKELY ACCUMULATE AT LEAST LIGHTLY. ADDITIONALLY...WHILE THE
WARNINGS MAY NOT BE ACHIEVED IN PORTIONS OF THE RIDGES...HERE TOO
THE SAME LOGIC HOLDS. SO...HEADLINES REMAIN IN PLACE WITH
ACCUMULATION FORECAST JUST HEAVILY SKEWED TOWARD THE
SOUTHEASTERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...QUICKLY TAPERING BACK TO
AN INCH OR LESS BY THE TIME YOU GET AS FAR NORTHWEST AS JUST
WASHINGTON PA.

TEMPERATURES WERE CONSTRUCTED USING NAM CURVES GENERALLY.
HOWEVER...A LOWER STARTING POINT AND EXPECTATIONS FOR WET BULB
EFFECTS EARLY THIS MORNING COMBINED WITH DYNAMICAL COOLING FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANYONE FROM WANDERING MUCH ABOVE FREEZING WHERE IT IS
SNOWING. AS A RESULT...ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL SNOW
WHERE THE PRECIPITATION REMAINS COHERENT. THINGS SHOULD QUICKLY
WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER FRONT MOVES SWIFTLY FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY LINGERING SNOW IN THE FAR EAST THIS EVENING WILL END QUICKLY
AS THE LIFT AND MOISTURE HEAD TOWARD THE COAST WITH THE EXITING
LOW. HUGE DRY SLOT WILL OVERTAKE THE ENTIRE AREA THIS EVENING AND
MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE WELL BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...
ENDING THE ATMOSPHERES ABILITY TO CREATE SNOW. CAA WILL BE GOING
ALL NIGHT...BUT WITH THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND A RATHER WEAK
AND UNORGANIZED FLOW ALOFT...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO
REDEVELOP.

FOR THE MOST PART...THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS DRY AS THE FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS UNORGANIZED AND MIXING HEIGHTS ARE JUST TOO LOW TO REACH
INTO THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY...INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENSION AND BRINGING ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLDER AIR THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE IN
SPEED AND BECOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY. THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE BEGINS
TO LOWER AND LAKE ERIE WILL COME INTO PLAY. WILL BRING POPS BACK
IN ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

CAA CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. FOR
A TIME...WINDS ALOFT LOOK GOOD FOR LAKE INFLUENCES AND THE SNOW
GROWTH ZONE WILL DROP INTO AN AREA OF HIGHER SATURATION. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NORTH
AND RIDGES THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.

SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE
WILL DRY OUT DURING THE MORNING HOURS. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THESE
TOO WILL END AS SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRIER AIR TAKES OVER.

A COLD DAY FRIDAY WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER WARM UP FOR THE
WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW MUCH PRECIP
WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH PASSING WAVES IN THE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH A
SHOWER POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOOKING LIKE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AREA WILL DRY OUT MONDAY WITH ANOTHER COOL DOWN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DAWN AT MOST SITES. SNOW WILL
ADVANCE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND AFFECT
MOST SITES OTHER THAN KZZV IN BY LATE THIS MORNING. SOME
DETERIORATION TO IFR IS LIKELY GENERALLY EAST OF KPIT DURING THE
HEAVIEST WINDOW OF SNOW...HOWEVER THE WINDOW FOR ACCUMULATION AT
ALL SITES OTHER THAN KMGW SHOULD BE FAIRLY BRIEF. AS SNOW SHUTS
OFF BY EVENING...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR
STRATUS TO REMAIN A FIXTURE AT MOST SITES. FRIES

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL THRU THE WKEND WITH SVRL FAST MOVG
DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ074-
     076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ023-
     073-075.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ023-
     041.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ021-
     022.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 261054
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
553 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND RIDE NORTHWARD
ALONG THE COAST TODAY...BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW PRIMARILY TO
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH. A SECOND WEAKER SYSTEM WILL
USHER IN COLDER TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING SNOW SHOWER CHANCES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE 00Z KPBZ RAOB INDICATED A VAST DEPTH WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
THAT REVEALED A VERITABLE CHASM BETWEEN THE TEMPERATURE AND
DEWPOINT CURVE IN THE VERTICAL. AS SUCH...A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR
HAS ESTABLISHED RESIDENCE OVER THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNRISE IN
ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM ADVANCING NORTHEASTWARD UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS LIKELY TO BE THE SOUTHEASTERN
RIDGES OF THE CWA...WHERE KPBZ WSR-88D IS ALREADY SHOWING RETURNS.
GIVEN THE COLUMN AT THE ONSET...THIS IS LIKELY MOSTLY STILL VIRGA
FOR THE MOMENT.

THIS VIRGA ON RADAR IS WELL OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM THAT IS
SET TO SWING UP THE EAST COAST TODAY. THE UPPER FEATURE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS SYSTEM IS STILL LARGELY A STRETCHING UPPER PV
FEATURE THAT HAS NOT EVEN YET MANAGED TO CONGEAL INTO A BALL IN
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND IS STILL WELL CONNECTED WITH
THE UPPER POLAR FRONT...WHICH SEEMS LIKELY TO PRECLUDE THIS PV
FEATURE FROM ACQUIRING SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH DEPTH TO LOWER THE
DYNAMICAL TROPOPAUSE TO ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT OCCLUSION OF THE
SYSTEM AS IT EJECTS UP THE EAST COAST. THIS HAS IMPORTANT
RAMIFICATIONS FOR OUR AREA AS WILL WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON MOISTURE
BEING WRAPPED BACK WESTWARD OVER OUR AREA TO ESTABLISH A
PRECIPITATION SHIELD OF ANY STRENGTH OR DURATION. GIVEN THAT AN
OCCLUSION AND SIGNIFICANT BENDING BACK OF THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT
INTO THE COLD AIR SEEMS RATHER UNLIKELY...THIS MEANS OUR WINDOW
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE FLEETING TODAY...AND THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE LARGELY CONVERGED ON THE WINDOW BEING ALMOST
EXCLUSIVELY THE 12Z-18Z TIME FRAME.

GIVEN THE EASTWARD ADVANCE OF THE UPPER FRONT...AND THE
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MIDDLE AND UPPER DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH
IT...IT SEEMS THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS
LIKELY TO BE VERY STARK. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH ALLOW FOR THE BACK
END OF THE PRECIPITATION TO PUSH WESTWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA BY LATE THIS MORNING...WHILE THE CANADIAN AND NAM
ARE NOT QUITE SO AGGRESSIVE...AND THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS
FAIL TO ALLOW IT TO EVEN REACH THE PA/OH BORDER. THAT SAID...MODEL
MASS FIELDS FROM THE NAM/CANADIAN/GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL RATHER SIMILAR
IN SUGGESTING A VERY STRONG UPWARD BRANCH OF A FRONTOGENETICAL
CIRCULATION SPREADING RATHER BROAD LIFT INTO THE AREA CENTERED
AROUND 15Z. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS ACROSS THIS FEATURE REVEAL A GOOD
BIT OF INSIGHT INTO WHAT IT COULD MEAN. FIRST OF ALL...WHILE LIFT
IS RATHER PERVASIVE AND SO IS SATURATION...ALL MODELS FAVOR LIFT
WELL ABOVE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE EVENT...EXCEPT IN THE
SOUTHEASTERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS MEANS THAT WHILE THE
MODELS ARE FAVORING GENERAL AMOUNTS OF BETWEEN 0.1 AND 0.25 INCHES
OF QPF FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN PA AND NORTHERN
WV...POOR MICROPHYSICAL DENDRITIC GROWTH AND WARM GROUND
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WORK AGAINST SNOW RATIOS BEING
PARTICULAR LILY EFFICIENT AT TURNING THAT QPF INTO SNOW.
ADDITIONALLY...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES MAY WELL TURN OUT TO BE
PROBLEMATIC. WHILE WE ARE STARTING OFF THE DAY A BIT COLDER THAN
THE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST AND WE MAY WELL WET BULB
COOLER...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO STRADDLE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF
THE EVENT IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THIS SET OF CIRCUMSTANCES IS
NOT EXACTLY A RECIPE FOR EFFICIENT ACCUMULATIONS. THAT
SAID...DAYTIME RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 7-9 TO 1 WERE FAVORED FOR
MOST OF THE AREA.

THE STORY QUICKLY CHANGES THE FARTHER SOUTHEAST YOU GO. NOT ONLY IS
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING DEEPER AND STRONGER...IT MUCH MORE CLOSELY
OVERLAYS THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. FURTHERMORE...A DEEP LAYER OF
WEAK STATIC STABILITY IS MANIFEST THROUGH THE STRONGEST PORTION OF
THE UPWARD BRANCH OF SAID CIRCULATION. UNFORTUNATELY FOR THE SNOW
LOVERS...THE RESIDENCE TIME OF THIS COMBINATION OF FEATURES OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IS ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 6
HOURS OR SO. THAT SAID...SNOW RATES OF AN INCH PER HOUR STILL SEEM
REASONABLE ON AVERAGE OVER ABOUT 6 HOURS GIVEN QPF EXPECTATIONS
AND RATIOS MORE ON THE ORDER OF 12-13 TO 1. THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO
YIELD UP TO AROUND 8 INCHES IN PORTIONS OF GARRETT AND TUCKER
COUNTIES...WITH THE NUMBERS QUICKLY FALLING OFF NORTHWEST OF
THERE.

GIVEN ALL THE AFOREMENTIONED LOGIC FOR ACCUMULATIONS...HEADLINES
WERE ALLOWED TO REMAIN AS IS FOR THIS SHIFT. WHILE ADVISORY
AMOUNTS GVEN THE QPF WITH MICROPHYSICAL PROBLEMS MAY NOT BE
REACHED IN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA...THE QPF SPREAD WAS
STILL WIDE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ADVISORY AMOUNTS
EVERYWHERE THEY WERE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED...AND GIVEN THE BASIC 100
PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW...IT MAY WELL BE A DISSERVICE TO CANCEL
SAID ADVISORIES WHEN IT IS STILL CLEARLY GOING TO SNOW...AND
LIKELY ACCUMULATE AT LEAST LIGHTLY. ADDITIONALLY...WHILE THE
WARNINGS MAY NOT BE ACHIEVED IN PORTIONS OF THE RIDGES...HERE TOO
THE SAME LOGIC HOLDS. SO...HEADLINES REMAIN IN PLACE WITH
ACCUMULATION FORECAST JUST HEAVILY SKEWED TOWARD THE
SOUTHEASTERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...QUICKLY TAPERING BACK TO
AN INCH OR LESS BY THE TIME YOU GET AS FAR NORTHWEST AS JUST
WASHINGTON PA.

TEMPERATURES WERE CONSTRUCTED USING NAM CURVES GENERALLY.
HOWEVER...A LOWER STARTING POINT AND EXPECTATIONS FOR WET BULB
EFFECTS EARLY THIS MORNING COMBINED WITH DYNAMICAL COOLING FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANYONE FROM WANDERING MUCH ABOVE FREEZING WHERE IT IS
SNOWING. AS A RESULT...ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL SNOW
WHERE THE PRECIPITATION REMAINS COHERENT. THINGS SHOULD QUICKLY
WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER FRONT MOVES SWIFTLY FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY LINGERING SNOW IN THE FAR EAST THIS EVENING WILL END QUICKLY
AS THE LIFT AND MOISTURE HEAD TOWARD THE COAST WITH THE EXITING
LOW. HUGE DRY SLOT WILL OVERTAKE THE ENTIRE AREA THIS EVENING AND
MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE WELL BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...
ENDING THE ATMOSPHERES ABILITY TO CREATE SNOW. CAA WILL BE GOING
ALL NIGHT...BUT WITH THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND A RATHER WEAK
AND UNORGANIZED FLOW ALOFT...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO
REDEVELOP.

FOR THE MOST PART...THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS DRY AS THE FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS UNORGANIZED AND MIXING HEIGHTS ARE JUST TOO LOW TO REACH
INTO THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY...INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENSION AND BRINGING ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLDER AIR THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE IN
SPEED AND BECOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY. THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE BEGINS
TO LOWER AND LAKE ERIE WILL COME INTO PLAY. WILL BRING POPS BACK
IN ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

CAA CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. FOR
A TIME...WINDS ALOFT LOOK GOOD FOR LAKE INFLUENCES AND THE SNOW
GROWTH ZONE WILL DROP INTO AN AREA OF HIGHER SATURATION. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NORTH
AND RIDGES THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.

SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE
WILL DRY OUT DURING THE MORNING HOURS. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THESE
TOO WILL END AS SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRIER AIR TAKES OVER.

A COLD DAY FRIDAY WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER WARM UP FOR THE
WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW MUCH PRECIP
WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH PASSING WAVES IN THE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH A
SHOWER POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOOKING LIKE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AREA WILL DRY OUT MONDAY WITH ANOTHER COOL DOWN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DAWN AT MOST SITES. SNOW WILL
ADVANCE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND AFFECT
MOST SITES OTHER THAN KZZV IN BY LATE THIS MORNING. SOME
DETERIORATION TO IFR IS LIKELY GENERALLY EAST OF KPIT DURING THE
HEAVIEST WINDOW OF SNOW...HOWEVER THE WINDOW FOR ACCUMULATION AT
ALL SITES OTHER THAN KMGW SHOULD BE FAIRLY BRIEF. AS SNOW SHUTS
OFF BY EVENING...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR
STRATUS TO REMAIN A FIXTURE AT MOST SITES. FRIES

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL THRU THE WKEND WITH SVRL FAST MOVG
DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ074-
     076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ023-
     073-075.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ023-
     041.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ021-
     022.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260856
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
356 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND RIDE NORTHWARD
ALONG THE COAST TODAY...BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW PRIMARILY TO
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH. A SECOND WEAKER SYSTEM WILL
USHER IN COLDER TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING SNOW SHOWER CHANCES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE 00Z KPBZ RAOB INDICATED A VAST DEPTH WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
THAT REVEALED A VERITABLE CHASM BETWEEN THE TEMPERATURE AND
DEWPOINT CURVE IN THE VERTICAL. AS SUCH...A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR
HAS ESTABLISHED RESIDENCE OVER THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNRISE IN
ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM ADVANCING NORTHEASTWARD UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS LIKELY TO BE THE SOUTHEASTERN
RIDGES OF THE CWA...WHERE KPBZ WSR-88D IS ALREADY SHOWING RETURNS.
GIVEN THE COLUMN AT THE ONSET...THIS IS LIKELY MOSTLY STILL VIRGA
FOR THE MOMENT.

THIS VIRGA ON RADAR IS WELL OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM THAT IS
SET TO SWING UP THE EAST COAST TODAY. THE UPPER FEATURE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS SYSTEM IS STILL LARGELY A STRETCHING UPPER PV
FEATURE THAT HAS NOT EVEN YET MANAGED TO CONGEAL INTO A BALL IN
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND IS STILL WELL CONNECTED WITH
THE UPPER POLAR FRONT...WHICH SEEMS LIKELY TO PRECLUDE THIS PV
FEATURE FROM ACQUIRING SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH DEPTH TO LOWER THE
DYNAMICAL TROPOPAUSE TO ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT OCCLUSION OF THE
SYSTEM AS IT EJECTS UP THE EAST COAST. THIS HAS IMPORTANT
RAMIFICATIONS FOR OUR AREA AS WILL WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON MOISTURE
BEING WRAPPED BACK WESTWARD OVER OUR AREA TO ESTABLISH A
PRECIPITATION SHIELD OF ANY STRENGTH OR DURATION. GIVEN THAT AN
OCCLUSION AND SIGNIFICANT BENDING BACK OF THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT
INTO THE COLD AIR SEEMS RATHER UNLIKELY...THIS MEANS OUR WINDOW
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE FLEETING TODAY...AND THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE LARGELY CONVERGED ON THE WINDOW BEING ALMOST
EXCLUSIVELY THE 12Z-18Z TIME FRAME.

GIVEN THE EASTWARD ADVANCE OF THE UPPER FRONT...AND THE
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MIDDLE AND UPPER DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH
IT...IT SEEMS THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS
LIKELY TO BE VERY STARK. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH ALLOW FOR THE BACK
END OF THE PRECIPITATION TO PUSH WESTWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA BY LATE THIS MORNING...WHILE THE CANADIAN AND NAM
ARE NOT QUITE SO AGGRESSIVE...AND THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS
FAIL TO ALLOW IT TO EVEN REACH THE PA/OH BORDER. THAT SAID...MODEL
MASS FIELDS FROM THE NAM/CANADIAN/GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL RATHER SIMILAR
IN SUGGESTING A VERY STRONG UPWARD BRANCH OF A FRONTOGENETICAL
CIRCULATION SPREADING RATHER BROAD LIFT INTO THE AREA CENTERED
AROUND 15Z. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS ACROSS THIS FEATURE REVEAL A GOOD
BIT OF INSIGHT INTO WHAT IT COULD MEAN. FIRST OF ALL...WHILE LIFT
IS RATHER PERVASIVE AND SO IS SATURATION...ALL MODELS FAVOR LIFT
WELL ABOVE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE EVENT...EXCEPT IN THE
SOUTHEASTERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS MEANS THAT WHILE THE
MODELS ARE FAVORING GENERAL AMOUNTS OF BETWEEN 0.1 AND 0.25 INCHES
OF QPF FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN PA AND NORTHERN
WV...POOR MICROPHYSICAL DENDRITIC GROWTH AND WARM GROUND
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WORK AGAINST SNOW RATIOS BEING
PARTICULAR LILY EFFICIENT AT TURNING THAT QPF INTO SNOW.
ADDITIONALLY...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES MAY WELL TURN OUT TO BE
PROBLEMATIC. WHILE WE ARE STARTING OFF THE DAY A BIT COLDER THAN
THE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST AND WE MAY WELL WET BULB
COOLER...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO STRADDLE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF
THE EVENT IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THIS SET OF CIRCUMSTANCES IS
NOT EXACTLY A RECIPE FOR EFFICIENT ACCUMULATIONS. THAT
SAID...DAYTIME RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 7-9 TO 1 WERE FAVORED FOR
MOST OF THE AREA.

THE STORY QUICKLY CHANGES THE FARTHER SOUTHEAST YOU GO. NOT ONLY IS
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING DEEPER AND STRONGER...IT MUCH MORE CLOSELY
OVERLAYS THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. FURTHERMORE...A DEEP LAYER OF
WEAK STATIC STABILITY IS MANIFEST THROUGH THE STRONGEST PORTION OF
THE UPWARD BRANCH OF SAID CIRCULATION. UNFORTUNATELY FOR THE SNOW
LOVERS...THE RESIDENCE TIME OF THIS COMBINATION OF FEATURES OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IS ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 6
HOURS OR SO. THAT SAID...SNOW RATES OF AN INCH PER HOUR STILL SEEM
REASONABLE ON AVERAGE OVER ABOUT 6 HOURS GIVEN QPF EXPECTATIONS
AND RATIOS MORE ON THE ORDER OF 12-13 TO 1. THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO
YIELD UP TO AROUND 8 INCHES IN PORTIONS OF GARRETT AND TUCKER
COUNTIES...WITH THE NUMBERS QUICKLY FALLING OFF NORTHWEST OF
THERE.

GIVEN ALL THE AFOREMENTIONED LOGIC FOR ACCUMULATIONS...HEADLINES
WERE ALLOWED TO REMAIN AS IS FOR THIS SHIFT. WHILE ADVISORY
AMOUNTS GVEN THE QPF WITH MICROPHYSICAL PROBLEMS MAY NOT BE
REACHED IN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA...THE QPF SPREAD WAS
STILL WIDE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ADVISORY AMOUNTS
EVERYWHERE THEY WERE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED...AND GIVEN THE BASIC 100
PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW...IT MAY WELL BE A DISSERVICE TO CANCEL
SAID ADVISORIES WHEN IT IS STILL CLEARLY GOING TO SNOW...AND
LIKELY ACCUMULATE AT LEAST LIGHTLY. ADDITIONALLY...WHILE THE
WARNINGS MAY NOT BE ACHIEVED IN PORTIONS OF THE RIDGES...HERE TOO
THE SAME LOGIC HOLDS. SO...HEADLINES REMAIN IN PLACE WITH
ACCUMULATION FORECAST JUST HEAVILY SKEWED TOWARD THE
SOUTHEASTERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...QUICKLY TAPERING BACK TO
AN INCH OR LESS BY THE TIME YOU GET AS FAR NORTHWEST AS JUST
WASHINGTON PA.

TEMPERATURES WERE CONSTRUCTED USING NAM CURVES GENERALLY.
HOWEVER...A LOWER STARTING POINT AND EXPECTATIONS FOR WET BULB
EFFECTS EARLY THIS MORNING COMBINED WITH DYNAMICAL COOLING FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANYONE FROM WANDERING MUCH ABOVE FREEZING WHERE IT IS
SNOWING. AS A RESULT...ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL SNOW
WHERE THE PRECIPITATION REMAINS COHERENT. THINGS SHOULD QUICKLY
WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER FRONT MOVES SWIFTLY FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. FRIES


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY LINGERING SNOW IN THE FAR EAST THIS EVENING WILL END QUICKLY
AS THE LIFT AND MOISTURE HEAD TOWARD THE COAST WITH THE EXITING
LOW. HUGE DRY SLOT WILL OVERTAKE THE ENTIRE AREA THIS EVENING AND
MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE WELL BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...
ENDING THE ATMOSPHERES ABILITY TO CREATE SNOW. CAA WILL BE GOING
ALL NIGHT...BUT WITH THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND A RATHER WEAK
AND UNORGANIZED FLOW ALOFT...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO
REDEVELOP.

FOR THE MOST PART...THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS DRY AS THE FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS UNORGANIZED AND MIXING HEIGHTS ARE JUST TOO LOW TO REACH
INTO THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY...INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENSION AND BRINGING ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLDER AIR THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE IN
SPEED AND BECOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY. THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE BEGINS
TO LOWER AND LAKE ERIE WILL COME INTO PLAY. WILL BRING POPS BACK
IN ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

CAA CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. FOR
A TIME...WINDS ALOFT LOOK GOOD FOR LAKE INFLUENCES AND THE SNOW
GROWTH ZONE WILL DROP INTO AN AREA OF HIGHER SATURATION. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NORTH
AND RIDGES THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.

SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE
WILL DRY OUT DURING THE MORNING HOURS. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THESE
TOO WILL END AS SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRIER AIR TAKES OVER.

A COLD DAY FRIDAY WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER WARM UP FOR THE
WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW MUCH PRECIP
WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH PASSING WAVES IN THE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH A
SHOWER POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOOKING LIKE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AREA WILL DRY OUT MONDAY WITH ANOTHER COOL DOWN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DAWN AT MOST SITES. SNOW WILL
ADVANCE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND AFFECT
MOST SITES OTHER THAN KZZV IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME
DETERIORATION TO IFR IS LIKELY GENERALLY EAST OF KPIT DURING THE
HEAVIEST WINDOW OF SNOW...HOWEVER THE WINDOW FOR ACCUMULATION AT
ALL SITES OTHER THAN KMGW SHOULD BE FAIRLY BRIEF. AS SNOW SHUTS
OFF BY EVENING...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR
STRATUS TO REMAIN A FIXTURE AT MOST SITES. FRIES

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL THRU THE WKEND WITH SVRL FAST MOVG
DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ074-
     076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ023-
     073-075.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ023-
     041.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ021-
     022.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260856
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
356 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND RIDE NORTHWARD
ALONG THE COAST TODAY...BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW PRIMARILY TO
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH. A SECOND WEAKER SYSTEM WILL
USHER IN COLDER TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING SNOW SHOWER CHANCES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE 00Z KPBZ RAOB INDICATED A VAST DEPTH WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
THAT REVEALED A VERITABLE CHASM BETWEEN THE TEMPERATURE AND
DEWPOINT CURVE IN THE VERTICAL. AS SUCH...A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR
HAS ESTABLISHED RESIDENCE OVER THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNRISE IN
ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM ADVANCING NORTHEASTWARD UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS LIKELY TO BE THE SOUTHEASTERN
RIDGES OF THE CWA...WHERE KPBZ WSR-88D IS ALREADY SHOWING RETURNS.
GIVEN THE COLUMN AT THE ONSET...THIS IS LIKELY MOSTLY STILL VIRGA
FOR THE MOMENT.

THIS VIRGA ON RADAR IS WELL OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM THAT IS
SET TO SWING UP THE EAST COAST TODAY. THE UPPER FEATURE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS SYSTEM IS STILL LARGELY A STRETCHING UPPER PV
FEATURE THAT HAS NOT EVEN YET MANAGED TO CONGEAL INTO A BALL IN
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND IS STILL WELL CONNECTED WITH
THE UPPER POLAR FRONT...WHICH SEEMS LIKELY TO PRECLUDE THIS PV
FEATURE FROM ACQUIRING SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH DEPTH TO LOWER THE
DYNAMICAL TROPOPAUSE TO ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT OCCLUSION OF THE
SYSTEM AS IT EJECTS UP THE EAST COAST. THIS HAS IMPORTANT
RAMIFICATIONS FOR OUR AREA AS WILL WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON MOISTURE
BEING WRAPPED BACK WESTWARD OVER OUR AREA TO ESTABLISH A
PRECIPITATION SHIELD OF ANY STRENGTH OR DURATION. GIVEN THAT AN
OCCLUSION AND SIGNIFICANT BENDING BACK OF THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT
INTO THE COLD AIR SEEMS RATHER UNLIKELY...THIS MEANS OUR WINDOW
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE FLEETING TODAY...AND THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE LARGELY CONVERGED ON THE WINDOW BEING ALMOST
EXCLUSIVELY THE 12Z-18Z TIME FRAME.

GIVEN THE EASTWARD ADVANCE OF THE UPPER FRONT...AND THE
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MIDDLE AND UPPER DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH
IT...IT SEEMS THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS
LIKELY TO BE VERY STARK. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH ALLOW FOR THE BACK
END OF THE PRECIPITATION TO PUSH WESTWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA BY LATE THIS MORNING...WHILE THE CANADIAN AND NAM
ARE NOT QUITE SO AGGRESSIVE...AND THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS
FAIL TO ALLOW IT TO EVEN REACH THE PA/OH BORDER. THAT SAID...MODEL
MASS FIELDS FROM THE NAM/CANADIAN/GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL RATHER SIMILAR
IN SUGGESTING A VERY STRONG UPWARD BRANCH OF A FRONTOGENETICAL
CIRCULATION SPREADING RATHER BROAD LIFT INTO THE AREA CENTERED
AROUND 15Z. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS ACROSS THIS FEATURE REVEAL A GOOD
BIT OF INSIGHT INTO WHAT IT COULD MEAN. FIRST OF ALL...WHILE LIFT
IS RATHER PERVASIVE AND SO IS SATURATION...ALL MODELS FAVOR LIFT
WELL ABOVE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE EVENT...EXCEPT IN THE
SOUTHEASTERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS MEANS THAT WHILE THE
MODELS ARE FAVORING GENERAL AMOUNTS OF BETWEEN 0.1 AND 0.25 INCHES
OF QPF FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN PA AND NORTHERN
WV...POOR MICROPHYSICAL DENDRITIC GROWTH AND WARM GROUND
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WORK AGAINST SNOW RATIOS BEING
PARTICULAR LILY EFFICIENT AT TURNING THAT QPF INTO SNOW.
ADDITIONALLY...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES MAY WELL TURN OUT TO BE
PROBLEMATIC. WHILE WE ARE STARTING OFF THE DAY A BIT COLDER THAN
THE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST AND WE MAY WELL WET BULB
COOLER...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO STRADDLE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF
THE EVENT IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THIS SET OF CIRCUMSTANCES IS
NOT EXACTLY A RECIPE FOR EFFICIENT ACCUMULATIONS. THAT
SAID...DAYTIME RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 7-9 TO 1 WERE FAVORED FOR
MOST OF THE AREA.

THE STORY QUICKLY CHANGES THE FARTHER SOUTHEAST YOU GO. NOT ONLY IS
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING DEEPER AND STRONGER...IT MUCH MORE CLOSELY
OVERLAYS THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. FURTHERMORE...A DEEP LAYER OF
WEAK STATIC STABILITY IS MANIFEST THROUGH THE STRONGEST PORTION OF
THE UPWARD BRANCH OF SAID CIRCULATION. UNFORTUNATELY FOR THE SNOW
LOVERS...THE RESIDENCE TIME OF THIS COMBINATION OF FEATURES OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IS ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 6
HOURS OR SO. THAT SAID...SNOW RATES OF AN INCH PER HOUR STILL SEEM
REASONABLE ON AVERAGE OVER ABOUT 6 HOURS GIVEN QPF EXPECTATIONS
AND RATIOS MORE ON THE ORDER OF 12-13 TO 1. THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO
YIELD UP TO AROUND 8 INCHES IN PORTIONS OF GARRETT AND TUCKER
COUNTIES...WITH THE NUMBERS QUICKLY FALLING OFF NORTHWEST OF
THERE.

GIVEN ALL THE AFOREMENTIONED LOGIC FOR ACCUMULATIONS...HEADLINES
WERE ALLOWED TO REMAIN AS IS FOR THIS SHIFT. WHILE ADVISORY
AMOUNTS GVEN THE QPF WITH MICROPHYSICAL PROBLEMS MAY NOT BE
REACHED IN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA...THE QPF SPREAD WAS
STILL WIDE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ADVISORY AMOUNTS
EVERYWHERE THEY WERE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED...AND GIVEN THE BASIC 100
PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW...IT MAY WELL BE A DISSERVICE TO CANCEL
SAID ADVISORIES WHEN IT IS STILL CLEARLY GOING TO SNOW...AND
LIKELY ACCUMULATE AT LEAST LIGHTLY. ADDITIONALLY...WHILE THE
WARNINGS MAY NOT BE ACHIEVED IN PORTIONS OF THE RIDGES...HERE TOO
THE SAME LOGIC HOLDS. SO...HEADLINES REMAIN IN PLACE WITH
ACCUMULATION FORECAST JUST HEAVILY SKEWED TOWARD THE
SOUTHEASTERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...QUICKLY TAPERING BACK TO
AN INCH OR LESS BY THE TIME YOU GET AS FAR NORTHWEST AS JUST
WASHINGTON PA.

TEMPERATURES WERE CONSTRUCTED USING NAM CURVES GENERALLY.
HOWEVER...A LOWER STARTING POINT AND EXPECTATIONS FOR WET BULB
EFFECTS EARLY THIS MORNING COMBINED WITH DYNAMICAL COOLING FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANYONE FROM WANDERING MUCH ABOVE FREEZING WHERE IT IS
SNOWING. AS A RESULT...ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL SNOW
WHERE THE PRECIPITATION REMAINS COHERENT. THINGS SHOULD QUICKLY
WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER FRONT MOVES SWIFTLY FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. FRIES


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY LINGERING SNOW IN THE FAR EAST THIS EVENING WILL END QUICKLY
AS THE LIFT AND MOISTURE HEAD TOWARD THE COAST WITH THE EXITING
LOW. HUGE DRY SLOT WILL OVERTAKE THE ENTIRE AREA THIS EVENING AND
MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE WELL BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...
ENDING THE ATMOSPHERES ABILITY TO CREATE SNOW. CAA WILL BE GOING
ALL NIGHT...BUT WITH THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND A RATHER WEAK
AND UNORGANIZED FLOW ALOFT...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO
REDEVELOP.

FOR THE MOST PART...THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS DRY AS THE FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS UNORGANIZED AND MIXING HEIGHTS ARE JUST TOO LOW TO REACH
INTO THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY...INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENSION AND BRINGING ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLDER AIR THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE IN
SPEED AND BECOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY. THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE BEGINS
TO LOWER AND LAKE ERIE WILL COME INTO PLAY. WILL BRING POPS BACK
IN ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

CAA CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. FOR
A TIME...WINDS ALOFT LOOK GOOD FOR LAKE INFLUENCES AND THE SNOW
GROWTH ZONE WILL DROP INTO AN AREA OF HIGHER SATURATION. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NORTH
AND RIDGES THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.

SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE
WILL DRY OUT DURING THE MORNING HOURS. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THESE
TOO WILL END AS SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRIER AIR TAKES OVER.

A COLD DAY FRIDAY WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER WARM UP FOR THE
WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW MUCH PRECIP
WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH PASSING WAVES IN THE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH A
SHOWER POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOOKING LIKE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AREA WILL DRY OUT MONDAY WITH ANOTHER COOL DOWN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DAWN AT MOST SITES. SNOW WILL
ADVANCE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND AFFECT
MOST SITES OTHER THAN KZZV IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME
DETERIORATION TO IFR IS LIKELY GENERALLY EAST OF KPIT DURING THE
HEAVIEST WINDOW OF SNOW...HOWEVER THE WINDOW FOR ACCUMULATION AT
ALL SITES OTHER THAN KMGW SHOULD BE FAIRLY BRIEF. AS SNOW SHUTS
OFF BY EVENING...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR
STRATUS TO REMAIN A FIXTURE AT MOST SITES. FRIES

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL THRU THE WKEND WITH SVRL FAST MOVG
DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ074-
     076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ023-
     073-075.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ023-
     041.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ021-
     022.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260617
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
117 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND RIDE NORTHWARD
ALONG THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH. A SECOND WEAKER SYSTEM WILL USHER IN
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING SNOW SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE 00Z KPBZ RAOB INDICATED A VAST DEPTH WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
THAT REVEALED A VERITABLE CHASM BETWEEN THE TEMPERATURE AND
DEWPOINT CURVE IN THE VERTICAL. AS SUCH...A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR
HAS MADE RESIDENCE OVER THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE CWA TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS IN
ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM ADVANCING NORTHEASTWARD UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

WHILE NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW AT THE
MOMENT...AN EARLY LOOK AT 00Z CANADIAN/GFS/NAM AND 04Z HRRR RUNS
DOES STILL REVEAL SOME RATHER CONCERNING CHARACTERISTICS WITH REGARD
TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE OVERALL PATTERN...PRODUCTION OF
PRECIPITATION FROM THE MODELS THEMSELVES...VAST DISCREPANCIES WITH
WARM ADVECTION...TROUBLE WITH WET BULB PROCESSES...NOT TO MENTION
THE MORE EVERYDAY ISSUES WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER OF
THE SYSTEM...LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS...AND QPF PLACEMENT. ALL OF
THESE ISSUES WILL HAVE TO BE ADEQUATELY CHEWED THROUGH DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THIS SHIFT...HOWEVER LATER START TIMES DO LOOK BETTER
AT THE MOMENT. AND IT SEEMS FAIRLY CLEAR THAT THE BEST WINDOW FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE RATHER SHORT...AS IN REALLY NOT MUCH
LONGER THAN 6 HOURS ANYWHERE...AND LIKELY ONLY MAYBE 2-3 HOURS IN
PITTSBURGH ITSELF. COMBINING THAT WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
DURING THE DAYTIME WITH WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES AND MARGINAL
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...AND IT SEEMS CLEAR THAT WITHOUT
INTENSE SNOW RATES...ACCUMULATIONS OUTSIDE THE RIDGES MAY BE
TOUGH. THAT SAID...TEMPERATURES BASED UPON CURRENT TRENDS AND WET
BULB PROFILES MAY WELL START OUT THE DAY TOMORROW A BIT LOWER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ALL OF THIS WILL NEED TO BE MULLED INTO THE
FULL UPDATE OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY A BIT LATER THIS MORNING.
FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY LINGERING SNOW IN THE FAR EAST THIS EVENING WILL END QUICKLY
AS THE LIFT AND MOISTURE HEAD TOWARD THE COAST WITH THE EXITING
LOW. HUGE DRY SLOT WILL OVERTAKE THE ENTIRE AREA THIS EVENING AND
MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE WELL BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...
ENDING THE ATMOSPHERES ABILITY TO CREATE SNOW. CAA WILL BE GOING
ALL NIGHT...BUT WITH THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND A RATHER WEAK
AND UNORGANIZED FLOW ALOFT...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO
REDEVELOP.

FOR THE MOST PART...THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS DRY AS THE FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS UNORGANIZED AND MIXING HEIGHTS ARE JUST TOO LOW TO REACH
INTO THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY...INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENSION AND BRINGING ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLDER AIR THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE IN
SPEED AND BECOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY. THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE BEGINS
TO LOWER AND LAKE ERIE WILL COME INTO PLAY. WILL BRING POPS BACK
IN ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

CAA CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. FOR
A TIME...WINDS ALOFT LOOK GOOD FOR LAKE INFLUENCES AND THE SNOW
GROWTH ZONE WILL DROP INTO AN AREA OF HIGHER SATURATION. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NORTH
AND RIDGES THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.

SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE
WILL DRY OUT DURING THE MORNING HOURS. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THESE
TOO WILL END AS SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRIER AIR TAKES OVER.

A COLD DAY FRIDAY WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER WARM UP FOR THE
WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW MUCH PRECIP
WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH PASSING WAVES IN THE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH A
SHOWER POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOOKING LIKE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AREA WILL DRY OUT MONDAY WITH ANOTHER COOL DOWN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DAWN AT MOST SITES. SNOW WILL
ADVANCE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND AFFECT
MOST SITES OTHER THAN KZZV IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME
DETERIORATION TO IFR IS LIKELY GENERALLY EAST OF KPIT DURING THE
HEAVIEST WINDOW OF SNOW...HOWEVER THE WINDOW FOR ACCUMULATION AT
ALL SITES OTHER THAN KMGW SHOULD BE FAIRLY BRIEF. AS SNOW SHUTS
OFF BY EVENING...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR
STRATUS TO REMAIN A FIXTURE AT MOST SITES. FRIES

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL THRU THE WKEND WITH SVRL FAST MOVG
DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ074-
     076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ023-
     073-075.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ023-
     041.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ021-
     022.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260617
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
117 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND RIDE NORTHWARD
ALONG THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH. A SECOND WEAKER SYSTEM WILL USHER IN
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING SNOW SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE 00Z KPBZ RAOB INDICATED A VAST DEPTH WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
THAT REVEALED A VERITABLE CHASM BETWEEN THE TEMPERATURE AND
DEWPOINT CURVE IN THE VERTICAL. AS SUCH...A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR
HAS MADE RESIDENCE OVER THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE CWA TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS IN
ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM ADVANCING NORTHEASTWARD UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

WHILE NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW AT THE
MOMENT...AN EARLY LOOK AT 00Z CANADIAN/GFS/NAM AND 04Z HRRR RUNS
DOES STILL REVEAL SOME RATHER CONCERNING CHARACTERISTICS WITH REGARD
TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE OVERALL PATTERN...PRODUCTION OF
PRECIPITATION FROM THE MODELS THEMSELVES...VAST DISCREPANCIES WITH
WARM ADVECTION...TROUBLE WITH WET BULB PROCESSES...NOT TO MENTION
THE MORE EVERYDAY ISSUES WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER OF
THE SYSTEM...LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS...AND QPF PLACEMENT. ALL OF
THESE ISSUES WILL HAVE TO BE ADEQUATELY CHEWED THROUGH DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THIS SHIFT...HOWEVER LATER START TIMES DO LOOK BETTER
AT THE MOMENT. AND IT SEEMS FAIRLY CLEAR THAT THE BEST WINDOW FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE RATHER SHORT...AS IN REALLY NOT MUCH
LONGER THAN 6 HOURS ANYWHERE...AND LIKELY ONLY MAYBE 2-3 HOURS IN
PITTSBURGH ITSELF. COMBINING THAT WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
DURING THE DAYTIME WITH WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES AND MARGINAL
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...AND IT SEEMS CLEAR THAT WITHOUT
INTENSE SNOW RATES...ACCUMULATIONS OUTSIDE THE RIDGES MAY BE
TOUGH. THAT SAID...TEMPERATURES BASED UPON CURRENT TRENDS AND WET
BULB PROFILES MAY WELL START OUT THE DAY TOMORROW A BIT LOWER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ALL OF THIS WILL NEED TO BE MULLED INTO THE
FULL UPDATE OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY A BIT LATER THIS MORNING.
FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY LINGERING SNOW IN THE FAR EAST THIS EVENING WILL END QUICKLY
AS THE LIFT AND MOISTURE HEAD TOWARD THE COAST WITH THE EXITING
LOW. HUGE DRY SLOT WILL OVERTAKE THE ENTIRE AREA THIS EVENING AND
MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE WELL BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...
ENDING THE ATMOSPHERES ABILITY TO CREATE SNOW. CAA WILL BE GOING
ALL NIGHT...BUT WITH THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND A RATHER WEAK
AND UNORGANIZED FLOW ALOFT...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO
REDEVELOP.

FOR THE MOST PART...THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS DRY AS THE FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS UNORGANIZED AND MIXING HEIGHTS ARE JUST TOO LOW TO REACH
INTO THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY...INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENSION AND BRINGING ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLDER AIR THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE IN
SPEED AND BECOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY. THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE BEGINS
TO LOWER AND LAKE ERIE WILL COME INTO PLAY. WILL BRING POPS BACK
IN ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

CAA CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. FOR
A TIME...WINDS ALOFT LOOK GOOD FOR LAKE INFLUENCES AND THE SNOW
GROWTH ZONE WILL DROP INTO AN AREA OF HIGHER SATURATION. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NORTH
AND RIDGES THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.

SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE
WILL DRY OUT DURING THE MORNING HOURS. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THESE
TOO WILL END AS SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRIER AIR TAKES OVER.

A COLD DAY FRIDAY WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER WARM UP FOR THE
WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW MUCH PRECIP
WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH PASSING WAVES IN THE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH A
SHOWER POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOOKING LIKE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AREA WILL DRY OUT MONDAY WITH ANOTHER COOL DOWN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DAWN AT MOST SITES. SNOW WILL
ADVANCE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND AFFECT
MOST SITES OTHER THAN KZZV IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME
DETERIORATION TO IFR IS LIKELY GENERALLY EAST OF KPIT DURING THE
HEAVIEST WINDOW OF SNOW...HOWEVER THE WINDOW FOR ACCUMULATION AT
ALL SITES OTHER THAN KMGW SHOULD BE FAIRLY BRIEF. AS SNOW SHUTS
OFF BY EVENING...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR
STRATUS TO REMAIN A FIXTURE AT MOST SITES. FRIES

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL THRU THE WKEND WITH SVRL FAST MOVG
DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ074-
     076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ023-
     073-075.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ023-
     041.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ021-
     022.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260257
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
957 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND RIDE NORTHWARD
ALONG THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH. A SECOND WEAKER SYSTEM WILL USHER IN
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING SNOW SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH 945PM UPDATE...HAVE SLOWED UP ARRIVAL OF SNOW BY A COUPLE OF
HOURS IN THE RIDGES CONSIDERING 00Z NAM AND 01Z HRRR SHOW A MUCH
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION IN THOSE LOCATIONS. THIS CHANGE IS
MINOR ENOUGH THAT NO CHANGES TO THE START OF ADVISORIES/WARNINGS
WAS MADE. OTHER NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE
POPS OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY/WARNING AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WAS
DONE TO BETTER REFLECT CONFIDENCE OF WHERE SNOWFALL WILL
OCCUR...WITH ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED
SNOWFALL FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

QUIET WEATHER IN THE INTERIM AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS EVENING. THIS LOW
WILL THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE HELP OF A DIGGING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS AND A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL
JET....RIDING ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE REGION
YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.

THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AS
THE LOW IS LIFTED NORTHWARD. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE THE
OUTLIER...WITH VERY HIGH OMEGA VALUES AND THUS SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS IN COMPARISON TO ALL OF THE OTHER MODELS...AND
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE MODELS. WITH THAT BEING SAID...THE QPF VALUES
HAVE INCREASED A BIT AMONG ALL OF THE MODELS...WHICH EVEN WITH
MODEST SNOW RATIOS LEADS TO WARNING CRITERIA SNOW IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF GARRETT...PRESTON...AND TUCKER COUNTIES AND JUST
EXCEEDING WARNING CRITERIA IN THE CHESTNUT AND LAUREL RIDGES. A
BIT OF AN EXPANSION WESTWARD IN THE TRACK HAS ALSO LEAD TO THE
ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY FOR 2-4 INCHES IN THE COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY
ADJACENT TO THE WARNING...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS EXPECTED FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST.

IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE EAST. WITH WETBULBING
EXPECTED...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE OUT OF THE LOW
TO MID 30`S TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DIGGING SHORTWAVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS EARLY THURSDAY...WITH A TRANSITION TO LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS STILL
PROG 850MB TEMPS TO FALL TO NEAR -10C BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND WITH A
DECENT LAKE FETCH EXPECT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE RIDGES AND
I-80 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGE. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY WITH
CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS NW FLOW HOLDS INTO
EARLY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE NRN PLAINS OVER
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND...DISLODGING A WEAK COLORADO LOW WITH
RELATIVELY LOW MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA. WHILE THIS MEANS MORE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...THE GOOD NEWS IS A TRANSITION TO SWERLY FLOW AND
OVERALL WARMING INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE MADE REMARKABLE PROGRESS
IN CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST 24HRS LENDING TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPD THIS EVE...EXCEPT FOR FKL WHERE PERSISTENT MVFR
SC IS TRAPPED UNDER A TEMPERATURE INVERSION. OTRW...EXP CONDS TO
DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR FOR MOST PORTS NR AND E OF
THE OH/PA BORDER AS LOW PRES ADVNS UP THE E COAST AND SPREADS SNW
INTO THE RGN. THE SNW SHOULD EXIT LT WED AS THE MOVES FURTHER
NEWD...THOUGH MVFR CIGS ARE EXPD TO CONT.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL THRU THE WKEND WITH SVRL FAST MOVG
DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ074-076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ023-073-075.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ023-041.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ021-022.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260257
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
957 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND RIDE NORTHWARD
ALONG THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH. A SECOND WEAKER SYSTEM WILL USHER IN
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING SNOW SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH 945PM UPDATE...HAVE SLOWED UP ARRIVAL OF SNOW BY A COUPLE OF
HOURS IN THE RIDGES CONSIDERING 00Z NAM AND 01Z HRRR SHOW A MUCH
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION IN THOSE LOCATIONS. THIS CHANGE IS
MINOR ENOUGH THAT NO CHANGES TO THE START OF ADVISORIES/WARNINGS
WAS MADE. OTHER NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE
POPS OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY/WARNING AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WAS
DONE TO BETTER REFLECT CONFIDENCE OF WHERE SNOWFALL WILL
OCCUR...WITH ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED
SNOWFALL FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

QUIET WEATHER IN THE INTERIM AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS EVENING. THIS LOW
WILL THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE HELP OF A DIGGING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS AND A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL
JET....RIDING ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE REGION
YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.

THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AS
THE LOW IS LIFTED NORTHWARD. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE THE
OUTLIER...WITH VERY HIGH OMEGA VALUES AND THUS SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS IN COMPARISON TO ALL OF THE OTHER MODELS...AND
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE MODELS. WITH THAT BEING SAID...THE QPF VALUES
HAVE INCREASED A BIT AMONG ALL OF THE MODELS...WHICH EVEN WITH
MODEST SNOW RATIOS LEADS TO WARNING CRITERIA SNOW IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF GARRETT...PRESTON...AND TUCKER COUNTIES AND JUST
EXCEEDING WARNING CRITERIA IN THE CHESTNUT AND LAUREL RIDGES. A
BIT OF AN EXPANSION WESTWARD IN THE TRACK HAS ALSO LEAD TO THE
ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY FOR 2-4 INCHES IN THE COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY
ADJACENT TO THE WARNING...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS EXPECTED FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST.

IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE EAST. WITH WETBULBING
EXPECTED...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE OUT OF THE LOW
TO MID 30`S TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DIGGING SHORTWAVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS EARLY THURSDAY...WITH A TRANSITION TO LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS STILL
PROG 850MB TEMPS TO FALL TO NEAR -10C BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND WITH A
DECENT LAKE FETCH EXPECT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE RIDGES AND
I-80 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGE. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY WITH
CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS NW FLOW HOLDS INTO
EARLY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE NRN PLAINS OVER
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND...DISLODGING A WEAK COLORADO LOW WITH
RELATIVELY LOW MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA. WHILE THIS MEANS MORE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...THE GOOD NEWS IS A TRANSITION TO SWERLY FLOW AND
OVERALL WARMING INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE MADE REMARKABLE PROGRESS
IN CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST 24HRS LENDING TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPD THIS EVE...EXCEPT FOR FKL WHERE PERSISTENT MVFR
SC IS TRAPPED UNDER A TEMPERATURE INVERSION. OTRW...EXP CONDS TO
DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR FOR MOST PORTS NR AND E OF
THE OH/PA BORDER AS LOW PRES ADVNS UP THE E COAST AND SPREADS SNW
INTO THE RGN. THE SNW SHOULD EXIT LT WED AS THE MOVES FURTHER
NEWD...THOUGH MVFR CIGS ARE EXPD TO CONT.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL THRU THE WKEND WITH SVRL FAST MOVG
DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ074-076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ023-073-075.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ023-041.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ021-022.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 252306
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
606 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND RIDE NORTHWARD
ALONG THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH. A SECOND WEAKER SYSTEM WILL USHER IN
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING SNOW SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH 545PM UPDATE...UPDATED HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND SKY COVER
TRENDS...AS OVERCAST SKIES ARE CLIPPING THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION REMAINS MOSTLY
CLEAR. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

QUIET WEATHER IN THE INTERIM AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS EVENING. THIS LOW
WILL THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE HELP OF A DIGGING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS AND A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL
JET....RIDING ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE REGION
YESTERDAY. DESPITE THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF
THE LOW...CLEARING SKIES EARLY SHOULD HELP TO DROP TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 30`S TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AS
THE LOW IS LIFTED NORTHWARD. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE THE
OUTLIER...WITH VERY HIGH OMEGA VALUES AND THUS SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS IN COMPARISON TO ALL OF THE OTHER MODELS...AND
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE MODELS. WITH THAT BEING SAID...THE QPF VALUES
HAVE INCREASED A BIT AMONG ALL OF THE MODELS...WHICH EVEN WITH
MODEST SNOW RATIOS LEADS TO WARNING CRITERIA SNOW IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF GARRETT...PRESTON...AND TUCKER COUNTIES AND JUST
EXCEEDING WARNING CRITERIA IN THE CHESTNUT AND LAUREL RIDGES. A
BIT OF AN EXPANSION WESTWARD IN THE TRACK HAS ALSO LEAD TO THE
ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY FOR 2-4 INCHES IN THE COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY
ADJACENT TO THE WARNING...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS EXPECTED FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST.

IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE EAST. WITH WETBULBING
EXPECTED...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE OUT OF THE LOW
TO MID 30`S TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DIGGING SHORTWAVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS EARLY THURSDAY...WITH A TRANSITION TO LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS STILL
PROG 850MB TEMPS TO FALL TO NEAR -10C BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND WITH A
DECENT LAKE FETCH EXPECT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE RIDGES AND
I-80 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGE. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY WITH
CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS NW FLOW HOLDS INTO
EARLY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE NRN PLAINS OVER
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND...DISLODGING A WEAK COLORADO LOW WITH
RELATIVELY LOW MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA. WHILE THIS MEANS MORE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...THE GOOD NEWS IS A TRANSITION TO SWERLY FLOW AND
OVERALL WARMING INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE MADE REMARKABLE PROGRESS
IN CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST 24HRS LENDING TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPD THIS EVE...EXCEPT FOR FKL WHERE PERSISTENT MVFR
SC IS TRAPPED UNDER A TEMPERATURE INVERSION. OTRW...EXP CONDS TO
DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR FOR MOST PORTS NR AND E OF
THE OH/PA BORDER AS LOW PRES ADVNS UP THE E COAST AND SPREADS SNW
INTO THE RGN. THE SNW SHOULD EXIT LT WED AS THE MOVES FURTHER
NEWD...THOUGH MVFR CIGS ARE EXPD TO CONT.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL THRU THE WKEND WITH SVRL FAST MOVG
DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ074-076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ023-073-075.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ023-041.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ021-022.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 252306
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
606 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND RIDE NORTHWARD
ALONG THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH. A SECOND WEAKER SYSTEM WILL USHER IN
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING SNOW SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH 545PM UPDATE...UPDATED HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND SKY COVER
TRENDS...AS OVERCAST SKIES ARE CLIPPING THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION REMAINS MOSTLY
CLEAR. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

QUIET WEATHER IN THE INTERIM AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS EVENING. THIS LOW
WILL THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE HELP OF A DIGGING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS AND A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL
JET....RIDING ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE REGION
YESTERDAY. DESPITE THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF
THE LOW...CLEARING SKIES EARLY SHOULD HELP TO DROP TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 30`S TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AS
THE LOW IS LIFTED NORTHWARD. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE THE
OUTLIER...WITH VERY HIGH OMEGA VALUES AND THUS SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS IN COMPARISON TO ALL OF THE OTHER MODELS...AND
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE MODELS. WITH THAT BEING SAID...THE QPF VALUES
HAVE INCREASED A BIT AMONG ALL OF THE MODELS...WHICH EVEN WITH
MODEST SNOW RATIOS LEADS TO WARNING CRITERIA SNOW IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF GARRETT...PRESTON...AND TUCKER COUNTIES AND JUST
EXCEEDING WARNING CRITERIA IN THE CHESTNUT AND LAUREL RIDGES. A
BIT OF AN EXPANSION WESTWARD IN THE TRACK HAS ALSO LEAD TO THE
ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY FOR 2-4 INCHES IN THE COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY
ADJACENT TO THE WARNING...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS EXPECTED FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST.

IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE EAST. WITH WETBULBING
EXPECTED...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE OUT OF THE LOW
TO MID 30`S TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DIGGING SHORTWAVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS EARLY THURSDAY...WITH A TRANSITION TO LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS STILL
PROG 850MB TEMPS TO FALL TO NEAR -10C BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND WITH A
DECENT LAKE FETCH EXPECT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE RIDGES AND
I-80 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGE. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY WITH
CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS NW FLOW HOLDS INTO
EARLY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE NRN PLAINS OVER
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND...DISLODGING A WEAK COLORADO LOW WITH
RELATIVELY LOW MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA. WHILE THIS MEANS MORE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...THE GOOD NEWS IS A TRANSITION TO SWERLY FLOW AND
OVERALL WARMING INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE MADE REMARKABLE PROGRESS
IN CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST 24HRS LENDING TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPD THIS EVE...EXCEPT FOR FKL WHERE PERSISTENT MVFR
SC IS TRAPPED UNDER A TEMPERATURE INVERSION. OTRW...EXP CONDS TO
DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR FOR MOST PORTS NR AND E OF
THE OH/PA BORDER AS LOW PRES ADVNS UP THE E COAST AND SPREADS SNW
INTO THE RGN. THE SNW SHOULD EXIT LT WED AS THE MOVES FURTHER
NEWD...THOUGH MVFR CIGS ARE EXPD TO CONT.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL THRU THE WKEND WITH SVRL FAST MOVG
DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ074-076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ023-073-075.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ023-041.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ021-022.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 252132
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
432 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND RIDE NORTHWARD
ALONG THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH. A SECOND WEAKER SYSTEM WILL USHER IN
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING SNOW SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER IN THE INTERIM AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS EVENING. THIS LOW
WILL THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE HELP OF A DIGGING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS AND A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL
JET....RIDING ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE REGION
YESTERDAY. DESPITE THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF
THE LOW...CLEARING SKIES EARLY SHOULD HELP TO DROP TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 30`S TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AS
THE LOW IS LIFTED NORTHWARD. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE THE
OUTLIER...WITH VERY HIGH OMEGA VALUES AND THUS SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS IN COMPARISON TO ALL OF THE OTHER MODELS...AND
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE MODELS. WITH THAT BEING SAID...THE QPF VALUES
HAVE INCREASED A BIT AMONG ALL OF THE MODELS...WHICH EVEN WITH
MODEST SNOW RATIOS LEADS TO WARNING CRITERIA SNOW IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF GARRETT...PRESTON...AND TUCKER COUNTIES AND JUST
EXCEEDING WARNING CRITERIA IN THE CHESTNUT AND LAUREL RIDGES. A
BIT OF AN EXPANSION WESTWARD IN THE TRACK HAS ALSO LEAD TO THE
ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY FOR 2-4 INCHES IN THE COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY
ADJACENT TO THE WARNING...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS EXPECTED FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST.

IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE EAST. WITH WETBULBING
EXPECTED...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE OUT OF THE LOW
TO MID 30`S TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DIGGING SHORTWAVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS EARLY THURSDAY...WITH A TRANSITION TO LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS STILL
PROG 850MB TEMPS TO FALL TO NEAR -10C BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND WITH A
DECENT LAKE FETCH EXPECT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE RIDGES AND
I-80 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGE. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY WITH
CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS NW FLOW HOLDS INTO
EARLY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE NRN PLAINS OVER
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND...DISLODGING A WEAK COLORADO LOW WITH
RELATIVELY LOW MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA. WHILE THIS MEANS MORE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...THE GOOD NEWS IS A TRANSITION TO SWERLY FLOW AND
OVERALL WARMING INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE MADE REMARKABLE PROGRESS
IN CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST 24HRS LENDING TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERAL VFR OVERNIGHT UNTIL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE SPREAD NORTHWEST
FROM COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING TONIGHT. PRECIP SHIELD WILL SPREAD IFR
SNOW FROM PITTSBURGH AND MORGANTOWN EAST MAINLY FROM 12-18Z THEN
IMPROVING LATE DAY. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN SNOW SHOWERS. A FRONT WILL BRING
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ074-076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ023-073-075.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ023-041.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ021-022.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 252132
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
432 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND RIDE NORTHWARD
ALONG THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH. A SECOND WEAKER SYSTEM WILL USHER IN
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING SNOW SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER IN THE INTERIM AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS EVENING. THIS LOW
WILL THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE HELP OF A DIGGING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS AND A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL
JET....RIDING ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE REGION
YESTERDAY. DESPITE THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF
THE LOW...CLEARING SKIES EARLY SHOULD HELP TO DROP TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 30`S TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AS
THE LOW IS LIFTED NORTHWARD. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE THE
OUTLIER...WITH VERY HIGH OMEGA VALUES AND THUS SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS IN COMPARISON TO ALL OF THE OTHER MODELS...AND
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE MODELS. WITH THAT BEING SAID...THE QPF VALUES
HAVE INCREASED A BIT AMONG ALL OF THE MODELS...WHICH EVEN WITH
MODEST SNOW RATIOS LEADS TO WARNING CRITERIA SNOW IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF GARRETT...PRESTON...AND TUCKER COUNTIES AND JUST
EXCEEDING WARNING CRITERIA IN THE CHESTNUT AND LAUREL RIDGES. A
BIT OF AN EXPANSION WESTWARD IN THE TRACK HAS ALSO LEAD TO THE
ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY FOR 2-4 INCHES IN THE COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY
ADJACENT TO THE WARNING...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS EXPECTED FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST.

IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE EAST. WITH WETBULBING
EXPECTED...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE OUT OF THE LOW
TO MID 30`S TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DIGGING SHORTWAVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS EARLY THURSDAY...WITH A TRANSITION TO LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS STILL
PROG 850MB TEMPS TO FALL TO NEAR -10C BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND WITH A
DECENT LAKE FETCH EXPECT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE RIDGES AND
I-80 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGE. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY WITH
CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS NW FLOW HOLDS INTO
EARLY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE NRN PLAINS OVER
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND...DISLODGING A WEAK COLORADO LOW WITH
RELATIVELY LOW MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA. WHILE THIS MEANS MORE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...THE GOOD NEWS IS A TRANSITION TO SWERLY FLOW AND
OVERALL WARMING INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE MADE REMARKABLE PROGRESS
IN CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST 24HRS LENDING TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERAL VFR OVERNIGHT UNTIL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE SPREAD NORTHWEST
FROM COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING TONIGHT. PRECIP SHIELD WILL SPREAD IFR
SNOW FROM PITTSBURGH AND MORGANTOWN EAST MAINLY FROM 12-18Z THEN
IMPROVING LATE DAY. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN SNOW SHOWERS. A FRONT WILL BRING
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ074-076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ023-073-075.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ023-041.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ021-022.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251755
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1255 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH COLDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS WE CONTINUE TO BE IN
THE SQUEEZE BETWEEN THE MOISTURE PLUME TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND
THE LIFTING UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
MOSTLY-PARTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...MINUS
THE RIDGES AND A ROW OF COUNTIES NORTH AND WEST OF I-70 AND I-79 IN
OHIO AND NW PA. THIS SHOULD REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW BEGIN TO
PUSH NORTHWESTWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY EMERGING FROM THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND
DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IS PROJECTED TO ROUND THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND RAPIDLY DEVELOP
AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE SUBTROPICAL JET FEED UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO VARY A BIT ON THE EXACT CORRIDOR OF
NORTHEASTWARD EJECTION OF THIS SYSTEM UP THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN...WHICH HAS DRASTIC RAMIFICATIONS TO OUR FORECAST IN THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY...HOWEVER MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW FAVOR AT
LEAST SOME SNOWFALL IN ALL POINTS FROM PITTSBURGH EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY AT SOME POINT.

AS THIS UPPER WAVE ADVANCES NORTHEASTWARD...THE MOISTURE FEED UP
THE ATLANTIC IS RAPIDLY WRAPPED BACK INTO THE DEVELOPING HIGHLY
TILTED BAROCLINIC CYCLONE. THE PREPONDERANCE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST AN 850 MB LOW TRACK TO THE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD LARGELY KEEP OUR AREA ENTRENCHED ON THE
COLDER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR PRECIPITATION TYPE
AS ALL SNOW EVERYWHERE THAT PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR...HOWEVER
MARGINAL ONSET TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING MAY MAKE ACCUMULATIONS
DIFFICULT TO MUSTER IN SOME OF THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS AROUND
MORGANTOWN. THAT SAID...WHILE THE BULK OF THE LOW LEVEL FORCING
FOR ASCENT AND STRONGEST OMEGAS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE FEED...SOME INTERESTING DYNAMICS
SEEM LIKELY TO PLAY OUT IN THE MID-LEVELS.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE REALLY SEEMINGLY LATCHED ONTO A DEEP AND
IMPRESSIVE LAYER OF FRONTOGENESIS FROM 700-400 MB...WITH THE
UPWARD BRANCH OF THIS AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION LIFTING INTO OUR
SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OR QUARTER OF OUR CWA ROUGHLY 12-18Z ON
WEDNESDAY. COINCIDENT WITH THIS LARGE OF LARGE SCALE LIFT IS THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AND GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
BEING THROWN BACK INTO IT...DENDRITE FORMATION SEEMS LIKELY TO BE
FAIRLY ROBUST FOR A SHORT PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY CONCURRENT WITH THE
RATHER SHORT WINDOW OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT. MODEL SOLUTIONS
HAVE LARGELY INCREASED THEIR QPF EXPECTATIONS ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA WITH THIS...AND ALL SEEM RATHER
REASONABLE EXCEPT THE NAM...WHICH HAS MASSIVELY UNREALISTIC
NEGATIVE OMEGA VALUES NOTED IN THE UPWARD BRANCH OF THE
FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION. THE MITIGATING FACTORS FOR HIGH RATIO
SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY COME VIA MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER AND GROUND
TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT...WHILE THE COBB NUMBERS WOULD FAVOR
15:1 SNOWS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THE FORECAST FAVORS MORE ALONG THE
LINES OF 7:1 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 12:1 IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FOR MELTING CONSIDERATIONS. THE END RESULT SEEMS MOST
LIKELY TO BE VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT MAYBE A
AN INCH OR TWO INCHES IN MORGANTOWN...LATROBE...AND INDIANA...A
GENERAL 3 TO 6 INCHES IN MOST THE RIDGES...EXCEPT AROUND 6 INCHES
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES OF TUCKER/GARRETT COUNTY. THIS
FORECAST FOLLOWS LARGELY ON PERSISTENCE WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTS...EXCEPT TO EXPAND VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS A BIT DEEPER
IN THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO A BIT OF CONTINUED FLUX IN THESE
NUMBERS AND A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD WARNING CRITERIA
NUMBERS...WINTER STORM WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY.

WITH COLDS AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH DYNAMICAL COOLING
LIKELY TO PLAY A ROLE...HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD.
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE LIKELY IS COMPLETELY USELESS IN A PATTERN AS
SUCH...SO TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED HEAVILY TOWARD DIRECT MODEL
OUTPUT FROM THE NAM...ECMWF...AND GFS...WHICH ALL FAVORED NOTHING
MORE THAN LOWER TO MID 30S WHERE SNOW IS EXPECTED. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEPER MOISTURE FROM LARGE COASTAL LOW BEGINS PULLING AWAY TO THE
EAST THANKSGIVING MORNING THANKS TO ANOTHER SW TROF MOVING QUICKLY
IN FROM THE WEST. ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE LINGERS WEDS NIGHT TO KEEP
POPS WARRANTED AREAWIDE. THE SW TROF WILL STREAM WELL TO OUR
SOUTH...ULTIMATELY KEEPING HIGHER POP CHANCES OVER WV...BUT DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL POOL NORTHWARD ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WITH NW FLOW KICKING IN...SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A DECENT
CHANCE OF SEEING AT LEAST SOME SNOW FLAKES ON THANKSGIVING...BUT
DOWNSTREAM FLOW FROM THE LAKES AND UPSLOPING WILL FAVOR THE TYPICAL
NW FLOW AREAS.

BY THURS EVENING DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN FROM THE SW LIMITING
THE POTENTIAL OVER ERN OHIO AND THE NRN PANHANDLE OF WV. AT THIS
TIME THE CAA BRINGS H85 TEMPS NEAR -10C ENHANCING LAKE-INDUCED CAPE
AND OVERALL SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH. FORECASTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR
THE RIDGES AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE LAKE...PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-80.

DRIER AIR UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR FRI...BUT IT WONT
STAY LONG. A STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS NW FLOW
HOLDS INTO EARLY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE NRN
PLAINS OVER THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND...DISLODGING A WEAK
COLORADO LOW WITH RELATIVELY LOW MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA. WHILE THIS
MEANS MORE LIGHT PRECIPITATION...THE GOOD NEWS IS A TRANSITION TO
SWERLY FLOW AND OVERALL WARMING INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE MADE
REMARKABLE PROGRESS IN CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST 24HRS LENDING TO
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED TRENDS.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERAL VFR OVERNIGHT UNTIL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE SPREAD NORTHWEST
FROM COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING TONIGHT. PRECIP SHIELD WILL SPREAD IFR
SNOW FROM PITTSBURGH AND MORGANTOWN EAST MAINLY FROM 12-18Z THEN
IMPROVING LATE DAY. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN SNOW SHOWERS. A FRONT WILL BRING
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ041.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251755
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1255 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH COLDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS WE CONTINUE TO BE IN
THE SQUEEZE BETWEEN THE MOISTURE PLUME TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND
THE LIFTING UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
MOSTLY-PARTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...MINUS
THE RIDGES AND A ROW OF COUNTIES NORTH AND WEST OF I-70 AND I-79 IN
OHIO AND NW PA. THIS SHOULD REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW BEGIN TO
PUSH NORTHWESTWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY EMERGING FROM THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND
DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IS PROJECTED TO ROUND THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND RAPIDLY DEVELOP
AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE SUBTROPICAL JET FEED UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO VARY A BIT ON THE EXACT CORRIDOR OF
NORTHEASTWARD EJECTION OF THIS SYSTEM UP THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN...WHICH HAS DRASTIC RAMIFICATIONS TO OUR FORECAST IN THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY...HOWEVER MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW FAVOR AT
LEAST SOME SNOWFALL IN ALL POINTS FROM PITTSBURGH EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY AT SOME POINT.

AS THIS UPPER WAVE ADVANCES NORTHEASTWARD...THE MOISTURE FEED UP
THE ATLANTIC IS RAPIDLY WRAPPED BACK INTO THE DEVELOPING HIGHLY
TILTED BAROCLINIC CYCLONE. THE PREPONDERANCE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST AN 850 MB LOW TRACK TO THE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD LARGELY KEEP OUR AREA ENTRENCHED ON THE
COLDER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR PRECIPITATION TYPE
AS ALL SNOW EVERYWHERE THAT PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR...HOWEVER
MARGINAL ONSET TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING MAY MAKE ACCUMULATIONS
DIFFICULT TO MUSTER IN SOME OF THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS AROUND
MORGANTOWN. THAT SAID...WHILE THE BULK OF THE LOW LEVEL FORCING
FOR ASCENT AND STRONGEST OMEGAS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE FEED...SOME INTERESTING DYNAMICS
SEEM LIKELY TO PLAY OUT IN THE MID-LEVELS.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE REALLY SEEMINGLY LATCHED ONTO A DEEP AND
IMPRESSIVE LAYER OF FRONTOGENESIS FROM 700-400 MB...WITH THE
UPWARD BRANCH OF THIS AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION LIFTING INTO OUR
SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OR QUARTER OF OUR CWA ROUGHLY 12-18Z ON
WEDNESDAY. COINCIDENT WITH THIS LARGE OF LARGE SCALE LIFT IS THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AND GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
BEING THROWN BACK INTO IT...DENDRITE FORMATION SEEMS LIKELY TO BE
FAIRLY ROBUST FOR A SHORT PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY CONCURRENT WITH THE
RATHER SHORT WINDOW OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT. MODEL SOLUTIONS
HAVE LARGELY INCREASED THEIR QPF EXPECTATIONS ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA WITH THIS...AND ALL SEEM RATHER
REASONABLE EXCEPT THE NAM...WHICH HAS MASSIVELY UNREALISTIC
NEGATIVE OMEGA VALUES NOTED IN THE UPWARD BRANCH OF THE
FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION. THE MITIGATING FACTORS FOR HIGH RATIO
SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY COME VIA MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER AND GROUND
TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT...WHILE THE COBB NUMBERS WOULD FAVOR
15:1 SNOWS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THE FORECAST FAVORS MORE ALONG THE
LINES OF 7:1 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 12:1 IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FOR MELTING CONSIDERATIONS. THE END RESULT SEEMS MOST
LIKELY TO BE VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT MAYBE A
AN INCH OR TWO INCHES IN MORGANTOWN...LATROBE...AND INDIANA...A
GENERAL 3 TO 6 INCHES IN MOST THE RIDGES...EXCEPT AROUND 6 INCHES
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES OF TUCKER/GARRETT COUNTY. THIS
FORECAST FOLLOWS LARGELY ON PERSISTENCE WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTS...EXCEPT TO EXPAND VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS A BIT DEEPER
IN THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO A BIT OF CONTINUED FLUX IN THESE
NUMBERS AND A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD WARNING CRITERIA
NUMBERS...WINTER STORM WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY.

WITH COLDS AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH DYNAMICAL COOLING
LIKELY TO PLAY A ROLE...HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD.
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE LIKELY IS COMPLETELY USELESS IN A PATTERN AS
SUCH...SO TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED HEAVILY TOWARD DIRECT MODEL
OUTPUT FROM THE NAM...ECMWF...AND GFS...WHICH ALL FAVORED NOTHING
MORE THAN LOWER TO MID 30S WHERE SNOW IS EXPECTED. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEPER MOISTURE FROM LARGE COASTAL LOW BEGINS PULLING AWAY TO THE
EAST THANKSGIVING MORNING THANKS TO ANOTHER SW TROF MOVING QUICKLY
IN FROM THE WEST. ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE LINGERS WEDS NIGHT TO KEEP
POPS WARRANTED AREAWIDE. THE SW TROF WILL STREAM WELL TO OUR
SOUTH...ULTIMATELY KEEPING HIGHER POP CHANCES OVER WV...BUT DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL POOL NORTHWARD ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WITH NW FLOW KICKING IN...SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A DECENT
CHANCE OF SEEING AT LEAST SOME SNOW FLAKES ON THANKSGIVING...BUT
DOWNSTREAM FLOW FROM THE LAKES AND UPSLOPING WILL FAVOR THE TYPICAL
NW FLOW AREAS.

BY THURS EVENING DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN FROM THE SW LIMITING
THE POTENTIAL OVER ERN OHIO AND THE NRN PANHANDLE OF WV. AT THIS
TIME THE CAA BRINGS H85 TEMPS NEAR -10C ENHANCING LAKE-INDUCED CAPE
AND OVERALL SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH. FORECASTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR
THE RIDGES AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE LAKE...PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-80.

DRIER AIR UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR FRI...BUT IT WONT
STAY LONG. A STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS NW FLOW
HOLDS INTO EARLY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE NRN
PLAINS OVER THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND...DISLODGING A WEAK
COLORADO LOW WITH RELATIVELY LOW MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA. WHILE THIS
MEANS MORE LIGHT PRECIPITATION...THE GOOD NEWS IS A TRANSITION TO
SWERLY FLOW AND OVERALL WARMING INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE MADE
REMARKABLE PROGRESS IN CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST 24HRS LENDING TO
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED TRENDS.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERAL VFR OVERNIGHT UNTIL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE SPREAD NORTHWEST
FROM COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING TONIGHT. PRECIP SHIELD WILL SPREAD IFR
SNOW FROM PITTSBURGH AND MORGANTOWN EAST MAINLY FROM 12-18Z THEN
IMPROVING LATE DAY. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN SNOW SHOWERS. A FRONT WILL BRING
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ041.

&&

$$












000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251710
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1210 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH COLDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS WE CONTINUE TO BE IN
THE SQUEEZE BETWEEN THE MOISTURE PLUME TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND
THE LIFTING UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
MOSTLY-PARTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...MINUS
THE RIDGES AND A ROW OF COUNTIES NORTH AND WEST OF I-70 AND I-79 IN
OHIO AND NW PA. THIS SHOULD REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW BEGIN TO
PUSH NORTHWESTWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY EMERGING FROM THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND
DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IS PROJECTED TO ROUND THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND RAPIDLY DEVELOP
AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE SUBTROPICAL JET FEED UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO VARY A BIT ON THE EXACT CORRIDOR OF
NORTHEASTWARD EJECTION OF THIS SYSTEM UP THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN...WHICH HAS DRASTIC RAMIFICATIONS TO OUR FORECAST IN THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY...HOWEVER MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW FAVOR AT
LEAST SOME SNOWFALL IN ALL POINTS FROM PITTSBURGH EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY AT SOME POINT.

AS THIS UPPER WAVE ADVANCES NORTHEASTWARD...THE MOISTURE FEED UP
THE ATLANTIC IS RAPIDLY WRAPPED BACK INTO THE DEVELOPING HIGHLY
TILTED BAROCLINIC CYCLONE. THE PREPONDERANCE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST AN 850 MB LOW TRACK TO THE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD LARGELY KEEP OUR AREA ENTRENCHED ON THE
COLDER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR PRECIPITATION TYPE
AS ALL SNOW EVERYWHERE THAT PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR...HOWEVER
MARGINAL ONSET TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING MAY MAKE ACCUMULATIONS
DIFFICULT TO MUSTER IN SOME OF THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS AROUND
MORGANTOWN. THAT SAID...WHILE THE BULK OF THE LOW LEVEL FORCING
FOR ASCENT AND STRONGEST OMEGAS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE FEED...SOME INTERESTING DYNAMICS
SEEM LIKELY TO PLAY OUT IN THE MID-LEVELS.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE REALLY SEEMINGLY LATCHED ONTO A DEEP AND
IMPRESSIVE LAYER OF FRONTOGENESIS FROM 700-400 MB...WITH THE
UPWARD BRANCH OF THIS AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION LIFTING INTO OUR
SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OR QUARTER OF OUR CWA ROUGHLY 12-18Z ON
WEDNESDAY. COINCIDENT WITH THIS LARGE OF LARGE SCALE LIFT IS THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AND GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
BEING THROWN BACK INTO IT...DENDRITE FORMATION SEEMS LIKELY TO BE
FAIRLY ROBUST FOR A SHORT PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY CONCURRENT WITH THE
RATHER SHORT WINDOW OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT. MODEL SOLUTIONS
HAVE LARGELY INCREASED THEIR QPF EXPECTATIONS ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA WITH THIS...AND ALL SEEM RATHER
REASONABLE EXCEPT THE NAM...WHICH HAS MASSIVELY UNREALISTIC
NEGATIVE OMEGA VALUES NOTED IN THE UPWARD BRANCH OF THE
FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION. THE MITIGATING FACTORS FOR HIGH RATIO
SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY COME VIA MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER AND GROUND
TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT...WHILE THE COBB NUMBERS WOULD FAVOR
15:1 SNOWS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THE FORECAST FAVORS MORE ALONG THE
LINES OF 7:1 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 12:1 IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FOR MELTING CONSIDERATIONS. THE END RESULT SEEMS MOST
LIKELY TO BE VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT MAYBE A
AN INCH OR TWO INCHES IN MORGANTOWN...LATROBE...AND INDIANA...A
GENERAL 3 TO 6 INCHES IN MOST THE RIDGES...EXCEPT AROUND 6 INCHES
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES OF TUCKER/GARRETT COUNTY. THIS
FORECAST FOLLOWS LARGELY ON PERSISTENCE WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTS...EXCEPT TO EXPAND VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS A BIT DEEPER
IN THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO A BIT OF CONTINUED FLUX IN THESE
NUMBERS AND A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD WARNING CRITERIA
NUMBERS...WINTER STORM WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY.

WITH COLDS AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH DYNAMICAL COOLING
LIKELY TO PLAY A ROLE...HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD.
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE LIKELY IS COMPLETELY USELESS IN A PATTERN AS
SUCH...SO TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED HEAVILY TOWARD DIRECT MODEL
OUTPUT FROM THE NAM...ECMWF...AND GFS...WHICH ALL FAVORED NOTHING
MORE THAN LOWER TO MID 30S WHERE SNOW IS EXPECTED. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEPER MOISTURE FROM LARGE COASTAL LOW BEGINS PULLING AWAY TO THE
EAST THANKSGIVING MORNING THANKS TO ANOTHER SW TROF MOVING QUICKLY
IN FROM THE WEST. ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE LINGERS WEDS NIGHT TO KEEP
POPS WARRANTED AREAWIDE. THE SW TROF WILL STREAM WELL TO OUR
SOUTH...ULTIMATELY KEEPING HIGHER POP CHANCES OVER WV...BUT DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL POOL NORTHWARD ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WITH NW FLOW KICKING IN...SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A DECENT
CHANCE OF SEEING AT LEAST SOME SNOW FLAKES ON THANKSGIVING...BUT
DOWNSTREAM FLOW FROM THE LAKES AND UPSLOPING WILL FAVOR THE TYPICAL
NW FLOW AREAS.

BY THURS EVENING DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN FROM THE SW LIMITING
THE POTENTIAL OVER ERN OHIO AND THE NRN PANHANDLE OF WV. AT THIS
TIME THE CAA BRINGS H85 TEMPS NEAR -10C ENHANCING LAKE-INDUCED CAPE
AND OVERALL SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH. FORECASTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR
THE RIDGES AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE LAKE...PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-80.

DRIER AIR UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR FRI...BUT IT WONT
STAY LONG. A STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS NW FLOW
HOLDS INTO EARLY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE NRN
PLAINS OVER THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND...DISLODGING A WEAK
COLORADO LOW WITH RELATIVELY LOW MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA. WHILE THIS
MEANS MORE LIGHT PRECIPITATION...THE GOOD NEWS IS A TRANSITION TO
SWERLY FLOW AND OVERALL WARMING INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE MADE
REMARKABLE PROGRESS IN CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST 24HRS LENDING TO
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED TRENDS.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR STRATUS AT TIMES AT KFKL WHIOCH MAY SPREAD TO KDUJ LATER THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED
GUSTS TO 25KTS.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COASTAL LOW PRES COULD BRING PSBL RSTRNS EAST OF PITTSBURGH LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL INTO THE WKEND
WITH SVRL WK CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ041.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251710
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1210 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH COLDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS WE CONTINUE TO BE IN
THE SQUEEZE BETWEEN THE MOISTURE PLUME TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND
THE LIFTING UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
MOSTLY-PARTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...MINUS
THE RIDGES AND A ROW OF COUNTIES NORTH AND WEST OF I-70 AND I-79 IN
OHIO AND NW PA. THIS SHOULD REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW BEGIN TO
PUSH NORTHWESTWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY EMERGING FROM THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND
DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IS PROJECTED TO ROUND THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND RAPIDLY DEVELOP
AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE SUBTROPICAL JET FEED UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO VARY A BIT ON THE EXACT CORRIDOR OF
NORTHEASTWARD EJECTION OF THIS SYSTEM UP THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN...WHICH HAS DRASTIC RAMIFICATIONS TO OUR FORECAST IN THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY...HOWEVER MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW FAVOR AT
LEAST SOME SNOWFALL IN ALL POINTS FROM PITTSBURGH EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY AT SOME POINT.

AS THIS UPPER WAVE ADVANCES NORTHEASTWARD...THE MOISTURE FEED UP
THE ATLANTIC IS RAPIDLY WRAPPED BACK INTO THE DEVELOPING HIGHLY
TILTED BAROCLINIC CYCLONE. THE PREPONDERANCE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST AN 850 MB LOW TRACK TO THE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD LARGELY KEEP OUR AREA ENTRENCHED ON THE
COLDER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR PRECIPITATION TYPE
AS ALL SNOW EVERYWHERE THAT PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR...HOWEVER
MARGINAL ONSET TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING MAY MAKE ACCUMULATIONS
DIFFICULT TO MUSTER IN SOME OF THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS AROUND
MORGANTOWN. THAT SAID...WHILE THE BULK OF THE LOW LEVEL FORCING
FOR ASCENT AND STRONGEST OMEGAS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE FEED...SOME INTERESTING DYNAMICS
SEEM LIKELY TO PLAY OUT IN THE MID-LEVELS.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE REALLY SEEMINGLY LATCHED ONTO A DEEP AND
IMPRESSIVE LAYER OF FRONTOGENESIS FROM 700-400 MB...WITH THE
UPWARD BRANCH OF THIS AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION LIFTING INTO OUR
SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OR QUARTER OF OUR CWA ROUGHLY 12-18Z ON
WEDNESDAY. COINCIDENT WITH THIS LARGE OF LARGE SCALE LIFT IS THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AND GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
BEING THROWN BACK INTO IT...DENDRITE FORMATION SEEMS LIKELY TO BE
FAIRLY ROBUST FOR A SHORT PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY CONCURRENT WITH THE
RATHER SHORT WINDOW OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT. MODEL SOLUTIONS
HAVE LARGELY INCREASED THEIR QPF EXPECTATIONS ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA WITH THIS...AND ALL SEEM RATHER
REASONABLE EXCEPT THE NAM...WHICH HAS MASSIVELY UNREALISTIC
NEGATIVE OMEGA VALUES NOTED IN THE UPWARD BRANCH OF THE
FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION. THE MITIGATING FACTORS FOR HIGH RATIO
SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY COME VIA MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER AND GROUND
TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT...WHILE THE COBB NUMBERS WOULD FAVOR
15:1 SNOWS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THE FORECAST FAVORS MORE ALONG THE
LINES OF 7:1 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 12:1 IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FOR MELTING CONSIDERATIONS. THE END RESULT SEEMS MOST
LIKELY TO BE VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT MAYBE A
AN INCH OR TWO INCHES IN MORGANTOWN...LATROBE...AND INDIANA...A
GENERAL 3 TO 6 INCHES IN MOST THE RIDGES...EXCEPT AROUND 6 INCHES
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES OF TUCKER/GARRETT COUNTY. THIS
FORECAST FOLLOWS LARGELY ON PERSISTENCE WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTS...EXCEPT TO EXPAND VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS A BIT DEEPER
IN THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO A BIT OF CONTINUED FLUX IN THESE
NUMBERS AND A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD WARNING CRITERIA
NUMBERS...WINTER STORM WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY.

WITH COLDS AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH DYNAMICAL COOLING
LIKELY TO PLAY A ROLE...HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD.
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE LIKELY IS COMPLETELY USELESS IN A PATTERN AS
SUCH...SO TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED HEAVILY TOWARD DIRECT MODEL
OUTPUT FROM THE NAM...ECMWF...AND GFS...WHICH ALL FAVORED NOTHING
MORE THAN LOWER TO MID 30S WHERE SNOW IS EXPECTED. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEPER MOISTURE FROM LARGE COASTAL LOW BEGINS PULLING AWAY TO THE
EAST THANKSGIVING MORNING THANKS TO ANOTHER SW TROF MOVING QUICKLY
IN FROM THE WEST. ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE LINGERS WEDS NIGHT TO KEEP
POPS WARRANTED AREAWIDE. THE SW TROF WILL STREAM WELL TO OUR
SOUTH...ULTIMATELY KEEPING HIGHER POP CHANCES OVER WV...BUT DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL POOL NORTHWARD ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WITH NW FLOW KICKING IN...SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A DECENT
CHANCE OF SEEING AT LEAST SOME SNOW FLAKES ON THANKSGIVING...BUT
DOWNSTREAM FLOW FROM THE LAKES AND UPSLOPING WILL FAVOR THE TYPICAL
NW FLOW AREAS.

BY THURS EVENING DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN FROM THE SW LIMITING
THE POTENTIAL OVER ERN OHIO AND THE NRN PANHANDLE OF WV. AT THIS
TIME THE CAA BRINGS H85 TEMPS NEAR -10C ENHANCING LAKE-INDUCED CAPE
AND OVERALL SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH. FORECASTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR
THE RIDGES AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE LAKE...PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-80.

DRIER AIR UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR FRI...BUT IT WONT
STAY LONG. A STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS NW FLOW
HOLDS INTO EARLY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE NRN
PLAINS OVER THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND...DISLODGING A WEAK
COLORADO LOW WITH RELATIVELY LOW MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA. WHILE THIS
MEANS MORE LIGHT PRECIPITATION...THE GOOD NEWS IS A TRANSITION TO
SWERLY FLOW AND OVERALL WARMING INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE MADE
REMARKABLE PROGRESS IN CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST 24HRS LENDING TO
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED TRENDS.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR STRATUS AT TIMES AT KFKL WHIOCH MAY SPREAD TO KDUJ LATER THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED
GUSTS TO 25KTS.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COASTAL LOW PRES COULD BRING PSBL RSTRNS EAST OF PITTSBURGH LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL INTO THE WKEND
WITH SVRL WK CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ041.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251307
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
807 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH COLDER CONDITIONS HOLDING SWAY THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUICK EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO BRING STRATUS DECK INTO FAR NORTHERN
I-80 CORRIDOR AS AREA OF CLOUDS UNDER GREAT LAKES LOW HAS SHIFTED
EAST. NO OTHER CHANGES.

COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INFILTRATE THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE AREA YESTERDAY.
FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE MIXING HAVE ALSO
MANAGED TO KEEP THE WINDS UP A BIT OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE DAYTIME TODAY AS MIXED LAYER FLOW GENERALLY AVERAGES
AROUND 20 KTS OR SO THROUGH THE DAY FROM THE WSW AT MOST
LOCATIONS. AS A RESULT...A STILL BRISK DAY IS ON TAP...BUT NOWHERE
NEAR TO THE DEGREE OF YESTERDAY.

A COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LOW GENERALLY REMAINING RELEGATED TO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THE FACT THAT WARM ADVECTION AND DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS RESTRICTED TO THE FAR EAST COAST AREAS LEAVES
THE AREA IN A RELATIVE DRY REGION OF AIR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS
A RESULT...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG MIXING TO
ALLOW FOR DECENT TEMPERATURE RISES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE FACT THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN
BACK PRECIPITOUSLY FROM YESTERDAY...JUST WIDESPREAD 40S SEEM
LIKELY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY EMERGING FROM THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND
DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IS PROJECTED TO ROUND THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND RAPIDLY DEVELOP
AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE SUBTROPICAL JET FEED UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO VARY A BIT ON THE EXACT CORRIDOR OF
NORTHEASTWARD EJECTION OF THIS SYSTEM UP THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN...WHICH HAS DRASTIC RAMIFICATIONS TO OUR FORECAST IN THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY...HOWEVER MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW FAVOR AT
LEAST SOME SNOWFALL IN ALL POINTS FROM PITTSBURGH EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY AT SOME POINT.

AS THIS UPPER WAVE ADVANCES NORTHEASTWARD...THE MOISTURE FEED UP
THE ATLANTIC IS RAPIDLY WRAPPED BACK INTO THE DEVELOPING HIGHLY
TILTED BAROCLINIC CYCLONE. THE PREPONDERANCE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST AN 850 MB LOW TRACK TO THE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD LARGELY KEEP OUR AREA ENTRENCHED ON THE
COLDER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR PRECIPITATION TYPE
AS ALL SNOW EVERYWHERE THAT PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR...HOWEVER
MARGINAL ONSET TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING MAY MAKE ACCUMULATIONS
DIFFICULT TO MUSTER IN SOME OF THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS AROUND
MORGANTOWN. THAT SAID...WHILE THE BULK OF THE LOW LEVEL FORCING
FOR ASCENT AND STRONGEST OMEGAS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE FEED...SOME INTERESTING DYNAMICS
SEEM LIKELY TO PLAY OUT IN THE MID-LEVELS.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE REALLY SEEMINGLY LATCHED ONTO A DEEP AND
IMPRESSIVE LAYER OF FRONTOGENESIS FROM 700-400 MB...WITH THE
UPWARD BRANCH OF THIS AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION LIFTING INTO OUR
SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OR QUARTER OF OUR CWA ROUGHLY 12-18Z ON
WEDNESDAY. COINCIDENT WITH THIS LARGE OF LARGE SCALE LIFT IS THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AND GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
BEING THROWN BACK INTO IT...DENDRITE FORMATION SEEMS LIKELY TO BE
FAIRLY ROBUST FOR A SHORT PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY CONCURRENT WITH THE
RATHER SHORT WINDOW OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT. MODEL SOLUTIONS
HAVE LARGELY INCREASED THEIR QPF EXPECTATIONS ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA WITH THIS...AND ALL SEEM RATHER
REASONABLE EXCEPT THE NAM...WHICH HAS MASSIVELY UNREALISTIC
NEGATIVE OMEGA VALUES NOTED IN THE UPWARD BRANCH OF THE
FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION. THE MITIGATING FACTORS FOR HIGH RATIO
SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY COME VIA MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER AND GROUND
TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT...WHILE THE COBB NUMBERS WOULD FAVOR
15:1 SNOWS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THE FORECAST FAVORS MORE ALONG THE
LINES OF 7:1 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 12:1 IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FOR MELTING CONSIDERATIONS. THE END RESULT SEEMS MOST
LIKELY TO BE VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT MAYBE A
AN INCH OR TWO INCHES IN MORGANTOWN...LATROBE...AND INDIANA...A
GENERAL 3 TO 6 INCHES IN MOST THE RIDGES...EXCEPT AROUND 6 INCHES
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES OF TUCKER/GARRETT COUNTY. THIS
FORECAST FOLLOWS LARGELY ON PERSISTENCE WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTS...EXCEPT TO EXPAND VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS A BIT DEEPER
IN THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO A BIT OF CONTINUED FLUX IN THESE
NUMBERS AND A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD WARNING CRITERIA
NUMBERS...WINTER STORM WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY.

WITH COLDS AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH DYNAMICAL COOLING
LIKELY TO PLAY A ROLE...HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD.
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE LIKELY IS COMPLETELY USELESS IN A PATTERN AS
SUCH...SO TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED HEAVILY TOWARD DIRECT MODEL
OUTPUT FROM THE NAM...ECMWF...AND GFS...WHICH ALL FAVORED NOTHING
MORE THAN LOWER TO MID 30S WHERE SNOW IS EXPECTED. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEPER MOISTURE FROM LARGE COASTAL LOW BEGINS PULLING AWAY TO THE
EAST THANKSGIVING MORNING THANKS TO ANOTHER SW TROF MOVING QUICKLY
IN FROM THE WEST. ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE LINGERS WEDS NIGHT TO KEEP
POPS WARRANTED AREAWIDE. THE SW TROF WILL STREAM WELL TO OUR
SOUTH...ULTIMATELY KEEPING HIGHER POP CHANCES OVER WV...BUT DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL POOL NORTHWARD ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WITH NW FLOW KICKING IN...SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A DECENT
CHANCE OF SEEING AT LEAST SOME SNOW FLAKES ON THANKSGIVING...BUT
DOWNSTREAM FLOW FROM THE LAKES AND UPSLOPING WILL FAVOR THE TYPICAL
NW FLOW AREAS.

BY THURS EVENING DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN FROM THE SW LIMITING
THE POTENTIAL OVER ERN OHIO AND THE NRN PANHANDLE OF WV. AT THIS
TIME THE CAA BRINGS H85 TEMPS NEAR -10C ENHANCING LAKE-INDUCED CAPE
AND OVERALL SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH. FORECASTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR
THE RIDGES AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE LAKE...PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-80.

DRIER AIR UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR FRI...BUT IT WONT
STAY LONG. A STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS NW FLOW
HOLDS INTO EARLY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE NRN
PLAINS OVER THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND...DISLODGING A WEAK
COLORADO LOW WITH RELATIVELY LOW MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA. WHILE THIS
MEANS MORE LIGHT PRECIPITATION...THE GOOD NEWS IS A TRANSITION TO
SWERLY FLOW AND OVERALL WARMING INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE MADE
REMARKABLE PROGRESS IN CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST 24HRS LENDING TO
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED TRENDS.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR STRATUS AT TIMES AT KFKL WHIOCH MAY SPREAD TO KDUJ LATER THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED
GUSTS TO 25KTS.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COASTAL LOW PRES COULD BRING PSBL RSTRNS EAST OF PITTSBURGH LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL INTO THE WKEND
WITH SVRL WK CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ041.

&&

$$












000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251307
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
807 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH COLDER CONDITIONS HOLDING SWAY THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUICK EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO BRING STRATUS DECK INTO FAR NORTHERN
I-80 CORRIDOR AS AREA OF CLOUDS UNDER GREAT LAKES LOW HAS SHIFTED
EAST. NO OTHER CHANGES.

COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INFILTRATE THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE AREA YESTERDAY.
FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE MIXING HAVE ALSO
MANAGED TO KEEP THE WINDS UP A BIT OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE DAYTIME TODAY AS MIXED LAYER FLOW GENERALLY AVERAGES
AROUND 20 KTS OR SO THROUGH THE DAY FROM THE WSW AT MOST
LOCATIONS. AS A RESULT...A STILL BRISK DAY IS ON TAP...BUT NOWHERE
NEAR TO THE DEGREE OF YESTERDAY.

A COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LOW GENERALLY REMAINING RELEGATED TO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THE FACT THAT WARM ADVECTION AND DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS RESTRICTED TO THE FAR EAST COAST AREAS LEAVES
THE AREA IN A RELATIVE DRY REGION OF AIR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS
A RESULT...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG MIXING TO
ALLOW FOR DECENT TEMPERATURE RISES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE FACT THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN
BACK PRECIPITOUSLY FROM YESTERDAY...JUST WIDESPREAD 40S SEEM
LIKELY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY EMERGING FROM THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND
DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IS PROJECTED TO ROUND THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND RAPIDLY DEVELOP
AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE SUBTROPICAL JET FEED UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO VARY A BIT ON THE EXACT CORRIDOR OF
NORTHEASTWARD EJECTION OF THIS SYSTEM UP THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN...WHICH HAS DRASTIC RAMIFICATIONS TO OUR FORECAST IN THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY...HOWEVER MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW FAVOR AT
LEAST SOME SNOWFALL IN ALL POINTS FROM PITTSBURGH EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY AT SOME POINT.

AS THIS UPPER WAVE ADVANCES NORTHEASTWARD...THE MOISTURE FEED UP
THE ATLANTIC IS RAPIDLY WRAPPED BACK INTO THE DEVELOPING HIGHLY
TILTED BAROCLINIC CYCLONE. THE PREPONDERANCE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST AN 850 MB LOW TRACK TO THE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD LARGELY KEEP OUR AREA ENTRENCHED ON THE
COLDER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR PRECIPITATION TYPE
AS ALL SNOW EVERYWHERE THAT PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR...HOWEVER
MARGINAL ONSET TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING MAY MAKE ACCUMULATIONS
DIFFICULT TO MUSTER IN SOME OF THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS AROUND
MORGANTOWN. THAT SAID...WHILE THE BULK OF THE LOW LEVEL FORCING
FOR ASCENT AND STRONGEST OMEGAS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE FEED...SOME INTERESTING DYNAMICS
SEEM LIKELY TO PLAY OUT IN THE MID-LEVELS.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE REALLY SEEMINGLY LATCHED ONTO A DEEP AND
IMPRESSIVE LAYER OF FRONTOGENESIS FROM 700-400 MB...WITH THE
UPWARD BRANCH OF THIS AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION LIFTING INTO OUR
SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OR QUARTER OF OUR CWA ROUGHLY 12-18Z ON
WEDNESDAY. COINCIDENT WITH THIS LARGE OF LARGE SCALE LIFT IS THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AND GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
BEING THROWN BACK INTO IT...DENDRITE FORMATION SEEMS LIKELY TO BE
FAIRLY ROBUST FOR A SHORT PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY CONCURRENT WITH THE
RATHER SHORT WINDOW OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT. MODEL SOLUTIONS
HAVE LARGELY INCREASED THEIR QPF EXPECTATIONS ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA WITH THIS...AND ALL SEEM RATHER
REASONABLE EXCEPT THE NAM...WHICH HAS MASSIVELY UNREALISTIC
NEGATIVE OMEGA VALUES NOTED IN THE UPWARD BRANCH OF THE
FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION. THE MITIGATING FACTORS FOR HIGH RATIO
SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY COME VIA MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER AND GROUND
TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT...WHILE THE COBB NUMBERS WOULD FAVOR
15:1 SNOWS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THE FORECAST FAVORS MORE ALONG THE
LINES OF 7:1 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 12:1 IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FOR MELTING CONSIDERATIONS. THE END RESULT SEEMS MOST
LIKELY TO BE VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT MAYBE A
AN INCH OR TWO INCHES IN MORGANTOWN...LATROBE...AND INDIANA...A
GENERAL 3 TO 6 INCHES IN MOST THE RIDGES...EXCEPT AROUND 6 INCHES
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES OF TUCKER/GARRETT COUNTY. THIS
FORECAST FOLLOWS LARGELY ON PERSISTENCE WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTS...EXCEPT TO EXPAND VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS A BIT DEEPER
IN THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO A BIT OF CONTINUED FLUX IN THESE
NUMBERS AND A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD WARNING CRITERIA
NUMBERS...WINTER STORM WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY.

WITH COLDS AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH DYNAMICAL COOLING
LIKELY TO PLAY A ROLE...HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD.
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE LIKELY IS COMPLETELY USELESS IN A PATTERN AS
SUCH...SO TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED HEAVILY TOWARD DIRECT MODEL
OUTPUT FROM THE NAM...ECMWF...AND GFS...WHICH ALL FAVORED NOTHING
MORE THAN LOWER TO MID 30S WHERE SNOW IS EXPECTED. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEPER MOISTURE FROM LARGE COASTAL LOW BEGINS PULLING AWAY TO THE
EAST THANKSGIVING MORNING THANKS TO ANOTHER SW TROF MOVING QUICKLY
IN FROM THE WEST. ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE LINGERS WEDS NIGHT TO KEEP
POPS WARRANTED AREAWIDE. THE SW TROF WILL STREAM WELL TO OUR
SOUTH...ULTIMATELY KEEPING HIGHER POP CHANCES OVER WV...BUT DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL POOL NORTHWARD ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WITH NW FLOW KICKING IN...SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A DECENT
CHANCE OF SEEING AT LEAST SOME SNOW FLAKES ON THANKSGIVING...BUT
DOWNSTREAM FLOW FROM THE LAKES AND UPSLOPING WILL FAVOR THE TYPICAL
NW FLOW AREAS.

BY THURS EVENING DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN FROM THE SW LIMITING
THE POTENTIAL OVER ERN OHIO AND THE NRN PANHANDLE OF WV. AT THIS
TIME THE CAA BRINGS H85 TEMPS NEAR -10C ENHANCING LAKE-INDUCED CAPE
AND OVERALL SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH. FORECASTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR
THE RIDGES AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE LAKE...PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-80.

DRIER AIR UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR FRI...BUT IT WONT
STAY LONG. A STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS NW FLOW
HOLDS INTO EARLY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE NRN
PLAINS OVER THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND...DISLODGING A WEAK
COLORADO LOW WITH RELATIVELY LOW MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA. WHILE THIS
MEANS MORE LIGHT PRECIPITATION...THE GOOD NEWS IS A TRANSITION TO
SWERLY FLOW AND OVERALL WARMING INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE MADE
REMARKABLE PROGRESS IN CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST 24HRS LENDING TO
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED TRENDS.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR STRATUS AT TIMES AT KFKL WHIOCH MAY SPREAD TO KDUJ LATER THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED
GUSTS TO 25KTS.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COASTAL LOW PRES COULD BRING PSBL RSTRNS EAST OF PITTSBURGH LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL INTO THE WKEND
WITH SVRL WK CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ041.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251121
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
621 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH COLDER CONDITIONS HOLDING SWAY THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INFILTRATE THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE AREA YESTERDAY.
FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE MIXING HAVE ALSO
MANAGED TO KEEP THE WINDS UP A BIT OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE DAYTIME TODAY AS MIXED LAYER FLOW GENERALLY AVERAGES
AROUND 20 KTS OR SO THROUGH THE DAY FROM THE WSW AT MOST
LOCATIONS. AS A RESULT...A STILL BRISK DAY IS ON TAP...BUT NOWHERE
NEAR TO THE DEGREE OF YESTERDAY.

A COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LOW GENERALLY REMAINING RELEGATED TO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THE FACT THAT WARM ADVECTION AND DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS RESTRICTED TO THE FAR EAST COAST AREAS LEAVES
THE AREA IN A RELATIVE DRY REGION OF AIR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS
A RESULT...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG MIXING TO
ALLOW FOR DECENT TEMPERATURE RISES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE FACT THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN
BACK PRECIPITOUSLY FROM YESTERDAY...JUST WIDESPREAD 40S SEEM
LIKELY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY EMERGING FROM THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND
DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IS PROJECTED TO ROUND THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND RAPIDLY DEVELOP
AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE SUBTROPICAL JET FEED UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO VARY A BIT ON THE EXACT CORRIDOR OF
NORTHEASTWARD EJECTION OF THIS SYSTEM UP THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN...WHICH HAS DRASTIC RAMIFICATIONS TO OUR FORECAST IN THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY...HOWEVER MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW FAVOR AT
LEAST SOME SNOWFALL IN ALL POINTS FROM PITTSBURGH EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY AT SOME POINT.

AS THIS UPPER WAVE ADVANCES NORTHEASTWARD...THE MOISTURE FEED UP
THE ATLANTIC IS RAPIDLY WRAPPED BACK INTO THE DEVELOPING HIGHLY
TILTED BAROCLINIC CYCLONE. THE PREPONDERANCE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST AN 850 MB LOW TRACK TO THE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD LARGELY KEEP OUR AREA ENTRENCHED ON THE
COLDER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR PRECIPITATION TYPE
AS ALL SNOW EVERYWHERE THAT PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR...HOWEVER
MARGINAL ONSET TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING MAY MAKE ACCUMULATIONS
DIFFICULT TO MUSTER IN SOME OF THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS AROUND
MORGANTOWN. THAT SAID...WHILE THE BULK OF THE LOW LEVEL FORCING
FOR ASCENT AND STRONGEST OMEGAS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE FEED...SOME INTERESTING DYNAMICS
SEEM LIKELY TO PLAY OUT IN THE MID-LEVELS.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE REALLY SEEMINGLY LATCHED ONTO A DEEP AND
IMPRESSIVE LAYER OF FRONTOGENESIS FROM 700-400 MB...WITH THE
UPWARD BRANCH OF THIS AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION LIFTING INTO OUR
SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OR QUARTER OF OUR CWA ROUGHLY 12-18Z ON
WEDNESDAY. COINCIDENT WITH THIS LARGE OF LARGE SCALE LIFT IS THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AND GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
BEING THROWN BACK INTO IT...DENDRITE FORMATION SEEMS LIKELY TO BE
FAIRLY ROBUST FOR A SHORT PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY CONCURRENT WITH THE
RATHER SHORT WINDOW OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT. MODEL SOLUTIONS
HAVE LARGELY INCREASED THEIR QPF EXPECTATIONS ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA WITH THIS...AND ALL SEEM RATHER
REASONABLE EXCEPT THE NAM...WHICH HAS MASSIVELY UNREALISTIC
NEGATIVE OMEGA VALUES NOTED IN THE UPWARD BRANCH OF THE
FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION. THE MITIGATING FACTORS FOR HIGH RATIO
SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY COME VIA MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER AND GROUND
TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT...WHILE THE COBB NUMBERS WOULD FAVOR
15:1 SNOWS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THE FORECAST FAVORS MORE ALONG THE
LINES OF 7:1 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 12:1 IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FOR MELTING CONSIDERATIONS. THE END RESULT SEEMS MOST
LIKELY TO BE VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT MAYBE A
AN INCH OR TWO INCHES IN MORGANTOWN...LATROBE...AND INDIANA...A
GENERAL 3 TO 6 INCHES IN MOST THE RIDGES...EXCEPT AROUND 6 INCHES
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES OF TUCKER/GARRETT COUNTY. THIS
FORECAST FOLLOWS LARGELY ON PERSISTENCE WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTS...EXCEPT TO EXPAND VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS A BIT DEEPER
IN THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO A BIT OF CONTINUED FLUX IN THESE
NUMBERS AND A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD WARNING CRITERIA
NUMBERS...WINTER STORM WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY.

WITH COLDS AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH DYNAMICAL COOLING
LIKELY TO PLAY A ROLE...HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD.
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE LIKELY IS COMPLETELY USELESS IN A PATTERN AS
SUCH...SO TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED HEAVILY TOWARD DIRECT MODEL
OUTPUT FROM THE NAM...ECMWF...AND GFS...WHICH ALL FAVORED NOTHING
MORE THAN LOWER TO MID 30S WHERE SNOW IS EXPECTED. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEPER MOISTURE FROM LARGE COASTAL LOW BEGINS PULLING AWAY TO THE
EAST THANKSGIVING MORNING THANKS TO ANOTHER SW TROF MOVING QUICKLY
IN FROM THE WEST. ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE LINGERS WEDS NIGHT TO KEEP
POPS WARRANTED AREAWIDE. THE SW TROF WILL STREAM WELL TO OUR
SOUTH...ULTIMATELY KEEPING HIGHER POP CHANCES OVER WV...BUT DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL POOL NORTHWARD ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WITH NW FLOW KICKING IN...SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A DECENT
CHANCE OF SEEING AT LEAST SOME SNOW FLAKES ON THANKSGIVING...BUT
DOWNSTREAM FLOW FROM THE LAKES AND UPSLOPING WILL FAVOR THE TYPICAL
NW FLOW AREAS.

BY THURS EVENING DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN FROM THE SW LIMITING
THE POTENTIAL OVER ERN OHIO AND THE NRN PANHANDLE OF WV. AT THIS
TIME THE CAA BRINGS H85 TEMPS NEAR -10C ENHANCING LAKE-INDUCED CAPE
AND OVERALL SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH. FORECASTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR
THE RIDGES AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE LAKE...PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-80.

DRIER AIR UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR FRI...BUT IT WONT
STAY LONG. A STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS NW FLOW
HOLDS INTO EARLY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE NRN
PLAINS OVER THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND...DISLODGING A WEAK
COLORADO LOW WITH RELATIVELY LOW MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA. WHILE THIS
MEANS MORE LIGHT PRECIPITATION...THE GOOD NEWS IS A TRANSITION TO
SWERLY FLOW AND OVERALL WARMING INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE MADE
REMARKABLE PROGRESS IN CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST 24HRS LENDING TO
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED TRENDS.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED GUSTS FROM THE WSW
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHENEVER GUSTS ARE PRESENT...LLWS WILL BE A
CONCERN. GUSTS RETURN BY LATE MORNING ON TUESDAY...BUT NOT
ANYWHERE NEAR AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY.  FRIES

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COASTAL LOW PRES COULD BRING PSBL RSTRNS INTO MID WK. PERIODIC
RSTRNS ARE PSBL INTO THE WKEND WITH SVRL WK CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ041.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251121
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
621 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH COLDER CONDITIONS HOLDING SWAY THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INFILTRATE THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE AREA YESTERDAY.
FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE MIXING HAVE ALSO
MANAGED TO KEEP THE WINDS UP A BIT OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE DAYTIME TODAY AS MIXED LAYER FLOW GENERALLY AVERAGES
AROUND 20 KTS OR SO THROUGH THE DAY FROM THE WSW AT MOST
LOCATIONS. AS A RESULT...A STILL BRISK DAY IS ON TAP...BUT NOWHERE
NEAR TO THE DEGREE OF YESTERDAY.

A COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LOW GENERALLY REMAINING RELEGATED TO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THE FACT THAT WARM ADVECTION AND DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS RESTRICTED TO THE FAR EAST COAST AREAS LEAVES
THE AREA IN A RELATIVE DRY REGION OF AIR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS
A RESULT...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG MIXING TO
ALLOW FOR DECENT TEMPERATURE RISES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE FACT THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN
BACK PRECIPITOUSLY FROM YESTERDAY...JUST WIDESPREAD 40S SEEM
LIKELY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY EMERGING FROM THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND
DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IS PROJECTED TO ROUND THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND RAPIDLY DEVELOP
AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE SUBTROPICAL JET FEED UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO VARY A BIT ON THE EXACT CORRIDOR OF
NORTHEASTWARD EJECTION OF THIS SYSTEM UP THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN...WHICH HAS DRASTIC RAMIFICATIONS TO OUR FORECAST IN THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY...HOWEVER MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW FAVOR AT
LEAST SOME SNOWFALL IN ALL POINTS FROM PITTSBURGH EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY AT SOME POINT.

AS THIS UPPER WAVE ADVANCES NORTHEASTWARD...THE MOISTURE FEED UP
THE ATLANTIC IS RAPIDLY WRAPPED BACK INTO THE DEVELOPING HIGHLY
TILTED BAROCLINIC CYCLONE. THE PREPONDERANCE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST AN 850 MB LOW TRACK TO THE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD LARGELY KEEP OUR AREA ENTRENCHED ON THE
COLDER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR PRECIPITATION TYPE
AS ALL SNOW EVERYWHERE THAT PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR...HOWEVER
MARGINAL ONSET TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING MAY MAKE ACCUMULATIONS
DIFFICULT TO MUSTER IN SOME OF THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS AROUND
MORGANTOWN. THAT SAID...WHILE THE BULK OF THE LOW LEVEL FORCING
FOR ASCENT AND STRONGEST OMEGAS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE FEED...SOME INTERESTING DYNAMICS
SEEM LIKELY TO PLAY OUT IN THE MID-LEVELS.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE REALLY SEEMINGLY LATCHED ONTO A DEEP AND
IMPRESSIVE LAYER OF FRONTOGENESIS FROM 700-400 MB...WITH THE
UPWARD BRANCH OF THIS AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION LIFTING INTO OUR
SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OR QUARTER OF OUR CWA ROUGHLY 12-18Z ON
WEDNESDAY. COINCIDENT WITH THIS LARGE OF LARGE SCALE LIFT IS THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AND GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
BEING THROWN BACK INTO IT...DENDRITE FORMATION SEEMS LIKELY TO BE
FAIRLY ROBUST FOR A SHORT PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY CONCURRENT WITH THE
RATHER SHORT WINDOW OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT. MODEL SOLUTIONS
HAVE LARGELY INCREASED THEIR QPF EXPECTATIONS ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA WITH THIS...AND ALL SEEM RATHER
REASONABLE EXCEPT THE NAM...WHICH HAS MASSIVELY UNREALISTIC
NEGATIVE OMEGA VALUES NOTED IN THE UPWARD BRANCH OF THE
FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION. THE MITIGATING FACTORS FOR HIGH RATIO
SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY COME VIA MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER AND GROUND
TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT...WHILE THE COBB NUMBERS WOULD FAVOR
15:1 SNOWS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THE FORECAST FAVORS MORE ALONG THE
LINES OF 7:1 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 12:1 IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FOR MELTING CONSIDERATIONS. THE END RESULT SEEMS MOST
LIKELY TO BE VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT MAYBE A
AN INCH OR TWO INCHES IN MORGANTOWN...LATROBE...AND INDIANA...A
GENERAL 3 TO 6 INCHES IN MOST THE RIDGES...EXCEPT AROUND 6 INCHES
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES OF TUCKER/GARRETT COUNTY. THIS
FORECAST FOLLOWS LARGELY ON PERSISTENCE WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTS...EXCEPT TO EXPAND VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS A BIT DEEPER
IN THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO A BIT OF CONTINUED FLUX IN THESE
NUMBERS AND A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD WARNING CRITERIA
NUMBERS...WINTER STORM WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY.

WITH COLDS AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH DYNAMICAL COOLING
LIKELY TO PLAY A ROLE...HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD.
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE LIKELY IS COMPLETELY USELESS IN A PATTERN AS
SUCH...SO TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED HEAVILY TOWARD DIRECT MODEL
OUTPUT FROM THE NAM...ECMWF...AND GFS...WHICH ALL FAVORED NOTHING
MORE THAN LOWER TO MID 30S WHERE SNOW IS EXPECTED. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEPER MOISTURE FROM LARGE COASTAL LOW BEGINS PULLING AWAY TO THE
EAST THANKSGIVING MORNING THANKS TO ANOTHER SW TROF MOVING QUICKLY
IN FROM THE WEST. ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE LINGERS WEDS NIGHT TO KEEP
POPS WARRANTED AREAWIDE. THE SW TROF WILL STREAM WELL TO OUR
SOUTH...ULTIMATELY KEEPING HIGHER POP CHANCES OVER WV...BUT DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL POOL NORTHWARD ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WITH NW FLOW KICKING IN...SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A DECENT
CHANCE OF SEEING AT LEAST SOME SNOW FLAKES ON THANKSGIVING...BUT
DOWNSTREAM FLOW FROM THE LAKES AND UPSLOPING WILL FAVOR THE TYPICAL
NW FLOW AREAS.

BY THURS EVENING DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN FROM THE SW LIMITING
THE POTENTIAL OVER ERN OHIO AND THE NRN PANHANDLE OF WV. AT THIS
TIME THE CAA BRINGS H85 TEMPS NEAR -10C ENHANCING LAKE-INDUCED CAPE
AND OVERALL SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH. FORECASTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR
THE RIDGES AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE LAKE...PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-80.

DRIER AIR UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR FRI...BUT IT WONT
STAY LONG. A STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS NW FLOW
HOLDS INTO EARLY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE NRN
PLAINS OVER THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND...DISLODGING A WEAK
COLORADO LOW WITH RELATIVELY LOW MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA. WHILE THIS
MEANS MORE LIGHT PRECIPITATION...THE GOOD NEWS IS A TRANSITION TO
SWERLY FLOW AND OVERALL WARMING INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE MADE
REMARKABLE PROGRESS IN CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST 24HRS LENDING TO
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED TRENDS.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED GUSTS FROM THE WSW
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHENEVER GUSTS ARE PRESENT...LLWS WILL BE A
CONCERN. GUSTS RETURN BY LATE MORNING ON TUESDAY...BUT NOT
ANYWHERE NEAR AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY.  FRIES

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COASTAL LOW PRES COULD BRING PSBL RSTRNS INTO MID WK. PERIODIC
RSTRNS ARE PSBL INTO THE WKEND WITH SVRL WK CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ041.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250926
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
423 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH COLDER CONDITIONS HOLDING SWAY THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INFILTRATE THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE AREA YESTERDAY.
FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE MIXING HAVE ALSO
MANAGED TO KEEP THE WINDS UP A BIT OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE DAYTIME TODAY AS MIXED LAYER FLOW GENERALLY AVERAGES
AROUND 20 KTS OR SO THROUGH THE DAY FROM THE WSW AT MOST
LOCATIONS. AS A RESULT...A STILL BRISK DAY IS ON TAP...BUT NOWHERE
NEAR TO THE DEGREE OF YESTERDAY.

A COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LOW GENERALLY REMAINING RELEGATED TO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THE FACT THAT WARM ADVECTION AND DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS RESTRICTED TO THE FAR EAST COAST AREAS LEAVES
THE AREA IN A RELATIVE DRY REGION OF AIR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS
A RESULT...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG MIXING TO
ALLOW FOR DECENT TEMPERATURE RISES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE FACT THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN
BACK PRECIPITOUSLY FROM YESTERDAY...JUST WIDESPREAD 40S SEEM
LIKELY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY EMERGING FROM THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND
DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IS PROJECTED TO ROUND THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND RAPIDLY DEVELOP
AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE SUBTROPICAL JET FEED UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO VARY A BIT ON THE EXACT CORRIDOR OF
NORTHEASTWARD EJECTION OF THIS SYSTEM UP THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN...WHICH HAS DRASTIC RAMIFICATIONS TO OUR FORECAST IN THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY...HOWEVER MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW FAVOR AT LEST
SOME SNOWFALL IN ALL POINTS FROM PITTSBURGH EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY
AT SOME POINT.

AS THIS UPPER WAVE ADVANCES NORTHEASTWARD...THE MOISTURE FEED UP
THE ATLANTIC IS RAPIDLY WRAPPED BACK INTO THE DEVELOPING HIGHLY
TILTED BAROCLINIC CYCLONE. THE PREPONDERANCE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST AN 850 MB LOW TRACK TO THE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD LARGELY KEEP OUR AREA ENTRENCHED ON THE
COLDER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR PRECIPITATION TYPE
AS ALL SNOW EVERYWHERE THAT PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR...HOWEVER
MARGINAL ONSET TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING MAY MAKE ACCUMULATIONS
DIFFICULT TO MUSTER IN SOME OF THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS AROUND
MORGANTOWN. THAT SAID...WHILE THE BULK OF THE LOW LEVEL FORCING
FOR ASCENT AND STRONGEST OMEGAS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE FEED...SOME INTERESTING DYNAMICS
SEEM LIKELY TO PLAY OUT IN THE MID-LEVELS.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE REALLY SEEMINGLY LATCHED ONTO A DEEP AND
IMPRESSIVE LAYER OF FRONTOGENESIS FROM 700-400 MB...WITH THE
UPWARD BRANCH OF THIS AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION LIFTING INTO OUR
SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OR QUARTER OF OUR CWA ROUGHLY 12-18Z ON
WEDNESDAY. COINCIDENT WITH THIS LARGE OF LARGE SCALE LIFT IS THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AND GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
BEING THROWN BACK INTO IT...DENDRITE FORMATION SEEMS LIKELY TO BE
FAIRLY ROBUST FOR A SHORT PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY CONCURRENT WITH THE
RATHER SHORT WINDOW OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT. MODEL SOLUTIONS
HAVE LARGELY INCREASED THEIR QPF EXPECTATIONS ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA WITH THIS...AND ALL SEEM RATHER
REASONABLE EXCEPT THE NAM...WHICH HAS MASSIVELY UNREALISTIC
NEGATIVE OMEGA VALUES NOTED IN THE UPWARD BRANCH OF THE
FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION. THE MITIGATING FACTORS FOR HIGH RATIO
SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY COME VIA MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER AND GROUND
TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT...WHILE THE COBB NUMBERS WOULD FAVOR
15:1 SNOWS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THE FORECAST FAVORS MORE ALONG THE
LINES OF 7:1 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 12:1 IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FOR MELTING CONSIDERATIONS. THE END RESULT SEEMS MOST
LIKELY TO BE VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT MAYBE A
AN INCH OR TWO INCHES IN MORGANTOWN...LATROBE...AND INDIANA...A
GENERAL 3 TO 6 INCHES IN MOST THE RIDGES...EXCEPT AROUND 6 INCHES
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES OF TUCKER/GARRETT COUNTY. THIS
FORECAST FOLLOWS LARGELY ON PERSISTENCE WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTS...EXCEPT TO EXPAND VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS A BIT DEEPER
IN THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO A BIT OF CONTINUED FLUX IN THESE
NUMBERS AND A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD WARNING CRITERIA
NUMBERS...WINTER STORM WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY.

WITH COLDS AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH DYNAMICAL COOLING
LIKELY TO PLAY A ROLE...HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD.
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE LIKELY IS COMPLETELY USELESS IN A PATTERN AS
SUCH...SO TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED HEAVILY TOWARD DIRECT MODEL
OUTPUT FROM THE NAM...ECMWF...AND GFS...WHICH ALL FAVORED NOTHING
MORE THAN LOWER TO MID 30S WHERE SNOW IS EXPECTED. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEPER MOISTURE FROM LARGE COASTAL LOW BEGINS PULLING AWAY TO THE
EAST THANKSGIVING MORNING THANKS TO ANOTHER SW TROF MOVING QUICKLY
IN FROM THE WEST. ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE LINGERS WEDS NIGHT TO KEEP
POPS WARRANTED AREAWIDE. THE SW TROF WILL STREAM WELL TO OUR
SOUTH...ULTIMATELY KEEPING HIGHER POP CHANCES OVER WV...BUT DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL POOL NORTHWARD ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WITH NW FLOW KICKING IN...SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A DECENT
CHANCE OF SEEING AT LEAST SOME SNOW FLAKES ON THANKSGIVING...BUT
DOWNSTREAM FLOW FROM THE LAKES AND UPSLOPING WILL FAVOR THE TYPICAL
NW FLOW AREAS.

BY THURS EVENING DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN FROM THE SW LIMITING
THE POTENTIAL OVER ERN OHIO AND THE NRN PANHANDLE OF WV. AT THIS
TIME THE CAA BRINGS H85 TEMPS NEAR -10C ENHANCING LAKE-INDUCED CAPE
AND OVERALL SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH. FORECASTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR
THE RIDGES AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE LAKE...PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-80.

DRIER AIR UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR FRI...BUT IT WONT
STAY LONG. A STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS NW FLOW
HOLDS INTO EARLY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE NRN
PLAINS OVER THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND...DISLODGING A WEAK
COLORADO LOW WITH RELATIVELY LOW MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA. WHILE THIS
MEANS MORE LIGHT PRECIPITATION...THE GOOD NEWS IS A TRANSITION TO
SWERLY FLOW AND OVERALL WARMING INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE MADE
REMARKABLE PROGRESS IN CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST 24HRS LENDING TO
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED TRENDS.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED GUSTS FROM THE WSW
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHENEVER GUSTS ARE PRESENT...LLWS WILL BE A
CONCERN. GUSTS RETURN BY LATE MORNING ON TUESDAY...BUT NOT
ANYWHERE NEAR AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY.  FRIES

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COASTAL LOW PRES COULD BRING PSBL RSTRNS INTO MID WK. PERIODIC
RSTRNS ARE PSBL INTO THE WKEND WITH SVRL WK CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ041.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250926
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
423 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH COLDER CONDITIONS HOLDING SWAY THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INFILTRATE THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE AREA YESTERDAY.
FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE MIXING HAVE ALSO
MANAGED TO KEEP THE WINDS UP A BIT OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE DAYTIME TODAY AS MIXED LAYER FLOW GENERALLY AVERAGES
AROUND 20 KTS OR SO THROUGH THE DAY FROM THE WSW AT MOST
LOCATIONS. AS A RESULT...A STILL BRISK DAY IS ON TAP...BUT NOWHERE
NEAR TO THE DEGREE OF YESTERDAY.

A COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LOW GENERALLY REMAINING RELEGATED TO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THE FACT THAT WARM ADVECTION AND DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS RESTRICTED TO THE FAR EAST COAST AREAS LEAVES
THE AREA IN A RELATIVE DRY REGION OF AIR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS
A RESULT...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG MIXING TO
ALLOW FOR DECENT TEMPERATURE RISES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE FACT THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN
BACK PRECIPITOUSLY FROM YESTERDAY...JUST WIDESPREAD 40S SEEM
LIKELY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY EMERGING FROM THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND
DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IS PROJECTED TO ROUND THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND RAPIDLY DEVELOP
AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE SUBTROPICAL JET FEED UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO VARY A BIT ON THE EXACT CORRIDOR OF
NORTHEASTWARD EJECTION OF THIS SYSTEM UP THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN...WHICH HAS DRASTIC RAMIFICATIONS TO OUR FORECAST IN THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY...HOWEVER MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW FAVOR AT LEST
SOME SNOWFALL IN ALL POINTS FROM PITTSBURGH EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY
AT SOME POINT.

AS THIS UPPER WAVE ADVANCES NORTHEASTWARD...THE MOISTURE FEED UP
THE ATLANTIC IS RAPIDLY WRAPPED BACK INTO THE DEVELOPING HIGHLY
TILTED BAROCLINIC CYCLONE. THE PREPONDERANCE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST AN 850 MB LOW TRACK TO THE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD LARGELY KEEP OUR AREA ENTRENCHED ON THE
COLDER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR PRECIPITATION TYPE
AS ALL SNOW EVERYWHERE THAT PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR...HOWEVER
MARGINAL ONSET TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING MAY MAKE ACCUMULATIONS
DIFFICULT TO MUSTER IN SOME OF THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS AROUND
MORGANTOWN. THAT SAID...WHILE THE BULK OF THE LOW LEVEL FORCING
FOR ASCENT AND STRONGEST OMEGAS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE FEED...SOME INTERESTING DYNAMICS
SEEM LIKELY TO PLAY OUT IN THE MID-LEVELS.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE REALLY SEEMINGLY LATCHED ONTO A DEEP AND
IMPRESSIVE LAYER OF FRONTOGENESIS FROM 700-400 MB...WITH THE
UPWARD BRANCH OF THIS AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION LIFTING INTO OUR
SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OR QUARTER OF OUR CWA ROUGHLY 12-18Z ON
WEDNESDAY. COINCIDENT WITH THIS LARGE OF LARGE SCALE LIFT IS THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AND GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
BEING THROWN BACK INTO IT...DENDRITE FORMATION SEEMS LIKELY TO BE
FAIRLY ROBUST FOR A SHORT PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY CONCURRENT WITH THE
RATHER SHORT WINDOW OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT. MODEL SOLUTIONS
HAVE LARGELY INCREASED THEIR QPF EXPECTATIONS ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA WITH THIS...AND ALL SEEM RATHER
REASONABLE EXCEPT THE NAM...WHICH HAS MASSIVELY UNREALISTIC
NEGATIVE OMEGA VALUES NOTED IN THE UPWARD BRANCH OF THE
FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION. THE MITIGATING FACTORS FOR HIGH RATIO
SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY COME VIA MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER AND GROUND
TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT...WHILE THE COBB NUMBERS WOULD FAVOR
15:1 SNOWS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THE FORECAST FAVORS MORE ALONG THE
LINES OF 7:1 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 12:1 IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FOR MELTING CONSIDERATIONS. THE END RESULT SEEMS MOST
LIKELY TO BE VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT MAYBE A
AN INCH OR TWO INCHES IN MORGANTOWN...LATROBE...AND INDIANA...A
GENERAL 3 TO 6 INCHES IN MOST THE RIDGES...EXCEPT AROUND 6 INCHES
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES OF TUCKER/GARRETT COUNTY. THIS
FORECAST FOLLOWS LARGELY ON PERSISTENCE WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTS...EXCEPT TO EXPAND VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS A BIT DEEPER
IN THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO A BIT OF CONTINUED FLUX IN THESE
NUMBERS AND A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD WARNING CRITERIA
NUMBERS...WINTER STORM WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY.

WITH COLDS AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH DYNAMICAL COOLING
LIKELY TO PLAY A ROLE...HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD.
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE LIKELY IS COMPLETELY USELESS IN A PATTERN AS
SUCH...SO TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED HEAVILY TOWARD DIRECT MODEL
OUTPUT FROM THE NAM...ECMWF...AND GFS...WHICH ALL FAVORED NOTHING
MORE THAN LOWER TO MID 30S WHERE SNOW IS EXPECTED. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEPER MOISTURE FROM LARGE COASTAL LOW BEGINS PULLING AWAY TO THE
EAST THANKSGIVING MORNING THANKS TO ANOTHER SW TROF MOVING QUICKLY
IN FROM THE WEST. ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE LINGERS WEDS NIGHT TO KEEP
POPS WARRANTED AREAWIDE. THE SW TROF WILL STREAM WELL TO OUR
SOUTH...ULTIMATELY KEEPING HIGHER POP CHANCES OVER WV...BUT DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL POOL NORTHWARD ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WITH NW FLOW KICKING IN...SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A DECENT
CHANCE OF SEEING AT LEAST SOME SNOW FLAKES ON THANKSGIVING...BUT
DOWNSTREAM FLOW FROM THE LAKES AND UPSLOPING WILL FAVOR THE TYPICAL
NW FLOW AREAS.

BY THURS EVENING DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN FROM THE SW LIMITING
THE POTENTIAL OVER ERN OHIO AND THE NRN PANHANDLE OF WV. AT THIS
TIME THE CAA BRINGS H85 TEMPS NEAR -10C ENHANCING LAKE-INDUCED CAPE
AND OVERALL SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH. FORECASTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR
THE RIDGES AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE LAKE...PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-80.

DRIER AIR UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR FRI...BUT IT WONT
STAY LONG. A STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS NW FLOW
HOLDS INTO EARLY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE NRN
PLAINS OVER THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND...DISLODGING A WEAK
COLORADO LOW WITH RELATIVELY LOW MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA. WHILE THIS
MEANS MORE LIGHT PRECIPITATION...THE GOOD NEWS IS A TRANSITION TO
SWERLY FLOW AND OVERALL WARMING INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE MADE
REMARKABLE PROGRESS IN CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST 24HRS LENDING TO
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED TRENDS.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED GUSTS FROM THE WSW
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHENEVER GUSTS ARE PRESENT...LLWS WILL BE A
CONCERN. GUSTS RETURN BY LATE MORNING ON TUESDAY...BUT NOT
ANYWHERE NEAR AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY.  FRIES

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COASTAL LOW PRES COULD BRING PSBL RSTRNS INTO MID WK. PERIODIC
RSTRNS ARE PSBL INTO THE WKEND WITH SVRL WK CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ041.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250519
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1219 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE RIDGES EAST OF
PITTSBURGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING AS TOTAL COLUMN
MOMENTUM STARTS TO EBB A BIT. SOUNDINGS STILL REMAIN RATHER
UNSTABLE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...A FEW GUSTS ARE STILL LIKELY TO CONTINUE.
HOWEVER...SAID DRIER AIR SHOULD ALL FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA. SKIES WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD
TREMENDOUSLY TO ACCOMMODATE SATELLITE TRENDS AS WELL AS EXPECTED
DRY AIR ADVECTION INTO THE CWA.

CONTINUE STRONG MIXING ALONG WITH A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND A BIT MORE THAN WOULD BE NORMAL
UNDER COLD ADVECTION. THAT SAID...HIGHS SEEM POISED TO TAKE A RUN
AT NORMAL LEVELS BY AFTERNOON. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. MODELS AGREE THERE WILL BE A COASTAL STORM BUT HOW FAR
WEST PRECIP SHIELD WILL REACH IS THE MAIN ISSUE. WITH AN OPEN WAVE
ALOFT SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST MOVER. USING A BLEND OF MODELS BRINGS
THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES...WITH
BEST CHANCE FOR 6 INCHES ACROSS GARRETT AND TUCKER COUNTIES WHERE
HIGHEST QPF WILL BE FORECAST. LESSER AMOUNTS FOR THE RIDGES OF
WESTMORELAND AND FAYETTE WHERE AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
LIGHTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. LOOKS TO BE QUITE A SHARP CUTOFF TO
NORTHWEST EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD WITH ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
OR SNOW EAST OF PITTSBURGH TO MORGANTOWN. STILL EARLY FOR THIS
SYSTEM AND THE TRACK STILL COULD CHANGE QUITE A BIT AS WE GET
CLOSER TO WEDNESDAY.

FOR THURSDAY COASTAL LOW EXITS AND DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SHORTWAVE MOVE IN FOR THANKSGIVING WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND WELL
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO
DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TOWARD -10C.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING MID-WEEK
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS THANKSGIVING NIGHT...ENHANCED
JUST DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF OUR SE
RIDGES. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF EARLY
FRI...HOWEVER...AS SUBSIDENCE OCCURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND
CHOKE OUT THE REMAINING BL MOISTURE BY LATE FRI MORNING.

FROM THAT POINT THE EXTENDED PERIOD GETS A LITTLE TRICKY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES GREATLY. PRIMARILY STUCK CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE
BASED HEAVILY ON THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THIS BRIEFLY HOLDS THE SFC
HIGH OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN
UPPER TROF PROPELS A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WILL STREAM ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SUN RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS. RAISED TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WHICH MEANS THAT RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW COME INTO
PLAY...BUT ANY QPF ASSOCIATED LOOKS LIGHT.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED GUSTS FROM THE WSW
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHENEVER GUSTS ARE PRESENT...LLWS WILL BE A
CONCERN. GUSTS RETURN BY LATE MORNING ON TUESDAY...BUT NOT
ANYWHERE NEAR AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY.  FRIES

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COASTAL LOW PRES COULD BRING PSBL RSTRNS INTO MID WK. PERIODIC
RSTRNS ARE PSBL INTO THE WKEND WITH SVRL WK CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ041.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250302
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1002 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE RIDGES EAST OF
PITTSBURGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH HAVE CONTINUED INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT THESE VALUES REMAIN BELOW THE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
OF 45 MPH. GUSTS WILL SLOWLY COME DOWN DURING THE EVENING. CLOUD
COVER WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...AND WITH MORE CLOUD COVER THAN
ORIGINALLY EXPECTED...THIS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER OVERNIGHT. A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
ON TUESDAY...BUT MAY CLIP THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH A PASSING
SHOWER. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL YIELD MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. MODELS AGREE THERE WILL BE A COASTAL STORM BUT HOW FAR
WEST PRECIP SHIELD WILL REACH IS THE MAIN ISSUE. WITH AN OPEN WAVE
ALOFT SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST MOVER. USING A BLEND OF MODELS BRINGS
THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES...WITH
BEST CHANCE FOR 6 INCHES ACROSS GARRETT AND TUCKER COUNTIES WHERE
HIGHEST QPF WILL BE FORECAST. LESSER AMOUNTS FOR THE RIDGES OF
WESTMORELAND AND FAYETTE WHERE AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
LIGHTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. LOOKS TO BE QUITE A SHARP CUTOFF TO
NORTHWEST EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD WITH ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
OR SNOW EAST OF PITTSBURGH TO MORGANTOWN. STILL EARLY FOR THIS
SYSTEM AND THE TRACK STILL COULD CHANGE QUITE A BIT AS WE GET
CLOSER TO WEDNESDAY.

FOR THURSDAY COASTAL LOW EXITS AND DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SHORTWAVE MOVE IN FOR THANKSGIVING WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND WELL
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO
DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TOWARD -10C.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING MID-WEEK
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS THANKSGIVING NIGHT...ENHANCED
JUST DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF OUR SE
RIDGES. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF EARLY
FRI...HOWEVER...AS SUBSIDENCE OCCURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND
CHOKE OUT THE REMAINING BL MOISTURE BY LATE FRI MORNING.

FROM THAT POINT THE EXTENDED PERIOD GETS A LITTLE TRICKY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES GREATLY. PRIMARILY STUCK CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE
BASED HEAVILY ON THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THIS BRIEFLY HOLDS THE SFC
HIGH OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN
UPPER TROF PROPELS A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WILL STREAM ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SUN RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS. RAISED TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WHICH MEANS THAT RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW COME INTO
PLAY...BUT ANY QPF ASSOCIATED LOOKS LIGHT.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENL VFR CONDS ARE EXPD OVRNGT S OF I 80...THOUGH SC CIGS ARE
EXPD TO DVLP IN COLD ADVCTN. CU RULE/MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THESE
SHOULD LINGER INTO TUE. PORTS N OF I 80 WL LIKELY SEE MVFR CIGS
DVLPG...THOUGH AN INCR TO VFR IS EXPD THRU THE DAY TUE AS MXG
LIFTS THE CIG HGT. OCNL WSW WND GUSTS ARND 20 KT WL RMN PSBL THRU
TUE WITH A SLOWLY WKNG PRES GRADIENT.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COASTAL LOW PRES COULD BRING PSBL RSTRNS INTO MID WK. PERIODIC
RSTRNS ARE PSBL INTO THE WKEND WITH SVRL WK CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ041.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250302
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1002 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE RIDGES EAST OF
PITTSBURGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH HAVE CONTINUED INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT THESE VALUES REMAIN BELOW THE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
OF 45 MPH. GUSTS WILL SLOWLY COME DOWN DURING THE EVENING. CLOUD
COVER WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...AND WITH MORE CLOUD COVER THAN
ORIGINALLY EXPECTED...THIS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER OVERNIGHT. A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
ON TUESDAY...BUT MAY CLIP THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH A PASSING
SHOWER. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL YIELD MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. MODELS AGREE THERE WILL BE A COASTAL STORM BUT HOW FAR
WEST PRECIP SHIELD WILL REACH IS THE MAIN ISSUE. WITH AN OPEN WAVE
ALOFT SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST MOVER. USING A BLEND OF MODELS BRINGS
THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES...WITH
BEST CHANCE FOR 6 INCHES ACROSS GARRETT AND TUCKER COUNTIES WHERE
HIGHEST QPF WILL BE FORECAST. LESSER AMOUNTS FOR THE RIDGES OF
WESTMORELAND AND FAYETTE WHERE AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
LIGHTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. LOOKS TO BE QUITE A SHARP CUTOFF TO
NORTHWEST EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD WITH ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
OR SNOW EAST OF PITTSBURGH TO MORGANTOWN. STILL EARLY FOR THIS
SYSTEM AND THE TRACK STILL COULD CHANGE QUITE A BIT AS WE GET
CLOSER TO WEDNESDAY.

FOR THURSDAY COASTAL LOW EXITS AND DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SHORTWAVE MOVE IN FOR THANKSGIVING WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND WELL
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO
DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TOWARD -10C.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING MID-WEEK
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS THANKSGIVING NIGHT...ENHANCED
JUST DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF OUR SE
RIDGES. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF EARLY
FRI...HOWEVER...AS SUBSIDENCE OCCURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND
CHOKE OUT THE REMAINING BL MOISTURE BY LATE FRI MORNING.

FROM THAT POINT THE EXTENDED PERIOD GETS A LITTLE TRICKY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES GREATLY. PRIMARILY STUCK CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE
BASED HEAVILY ON THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THIS BRIEFLY HOLDS THE SFC
HIGH OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN
UPPER TROF PROPELS A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WILL STREAM ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SUN RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS. RAISED TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WHICH MEANS THAT RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW COME INTO
PLAY...BUT ANY QPF ASSOCIATED LOOKS LIGHT.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENL VFR CONDS ARE EXPD OVRNGT S OF I 80...THOUGH SC CIGS ARE
EXPD TO DVLP IN COLD ADVCTN. CU RULE/MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THESE
SHOULD LINGER INTO TUE. PORTS N OF I 80 WL LIKELY SEE MVFR CIGS
DVLPG...THOUGH AN INCR TO VFR IS EXPD THRU THE DAY TUE AS MXG
LIFTS THE CIG HGT. OCNL WSW WND GUSTS ARND 20 KT WL RMN PSBL THRU
TUE WITH A SLOWLY WKNG PRES GRADIENT.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COASTAL LOW PRES COULD BRING PSBL RSTRNS INTO MID WK. PERIODIC
RSTRNS ARE PSBL INTO THE WKEND WITH SVRL WK CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ041.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250025
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
725 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS COLDER AIR ENTERS THE
REGION. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE RIDGES
EAST OF PITTSBURGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
QUICK 730PM UPDATE TO END THE WIND ADVISORY. ALL SITES HAVE BEEN
BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 45 MPH WIND GUSTS FOR TWO
HOURS...AND DO NOT EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO RAMP UP AGAIN.

WITH 615PM UPDATE...HAVE PULLED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DURING
THE EVENING WITH THINGS LOOKING CALM ON THE RADAR. ANTICIPATE
BEING ABLE TO BRING THE WIND ADVISORY DOWN BEFORE 10PM...BUT WITH
GUSTS HAVING REMAINED HIGH DURING THE LAST ONE TO TWO HOURS...WILL
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THE CURRENT TIME. ALSO UPDATED FOR HOURLY
TEMPERATURE TRENDS AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

FRONT WILL CROSS REGION THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH
STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT. ONLY STRAY SHOWERS NOW AS THE
FRONT AND SHORTWAVE HEAD EAST AND MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS IN. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. MODELS AGREE THERE WILL BE A COASTAL STORM BUT HOW FAR
WEST PRECIP SHIELD WILL REACH IS THE MAIN ISSUE. WITH AN OPEN WAVE
ALOFT SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST MOVER. USING A BLEND OF MODELS BRINGS
THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES...WITH
BEST CHANCE FOR 6 INCHES ACROSS GARRETT AND TUCKER COUNTIES WHERE
HIGHEST QPF WILL BE FORECAST. LESSER AMOUNTS FOR THE RIDGES OF
WESTMORELAND AND FAYETTE WHERE AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
LIGHTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. LOOKS TO BE QUITE A SHARP CUTOFF TO
NORTHWEST EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD WITH ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN OF
SNOW EAST OF PITTSBURGH TO MORGANTOWN. STILL EARLY FOR THIS SYSTEM
AND THE TRACK STILL COULD CHANGE QUITE A BIT AS WE GET CLOSER TO WEDNESDAY.

FOR THURSDAY COASTAL EXITS AND DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SHORTWAVE MOVE IN FOR THANKSGIVING WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND WELL
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO
DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TOWARD -10C.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING MID-WEEK
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS THANKSGIVING NIGHT...ENHANCED
JUST DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF OUR SE
RIDGES. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF EARLY
FRI...HOWEVER...AS SUBSIDENCE OCCURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND
CHOKE OUT THE REMAINING BL MOISTURE BY LATE FRI MORNING.

FROM THAT POINT THE EXTENDED PERIOD GETS A LITTLE TRICKY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES GREATLY. PRIMARILY STUCK CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE
BASED HEAVILY ON THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THIS BRIEFLY HOLDS THE SFC
HIGH OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN
UPPER TROF PROPELS A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WILL STREAM ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SUN RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS. RAISED TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WHICH MEANS THAT RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW COME INTO
PLAY...BUT ANY QPF ASSOCIATED LOOKS LIGHT.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENL VFR CONDS ARE EXPD ERLY THIS EVE BEHIND AN EXITING CDFNT.
WNDS ARE EXPD TO DMNSH...BUT GUSTS FM THE WSW ARND 20KT ARE STILL
EXPD. MVFR SC IS EPXD TO WORK SLOWLY EWD INTO THE AREA N OF THE
PA/WV BORDER AS COLD ADVCTN BEGINS. EXP AN INCR TO VFR BY MRNG
WITH VFR CU/SC CIGS...THOUGH DUJ WL LIKELY HOLD ON TO MVFR INTO
THE AFTN.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COASTAL LOW PRES COULD BRING PSBL RSTRNS INTO MID WK. PERIODIC
RSTRNS ARE PSBL INTO THE WKEND WITH SVRL WK CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE ONE RECORD HIGH TEMPREATURE THAT WAS SET TODAY WAS
DUBOIS...WITH AN OBSERVED HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 67 DEGREES. THE
PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 61...SET IN 1979.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ041.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250025
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
725 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS COLDER AIR ENTERS THE
REGION. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE RIDGES
EAST OF PITTSBURGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
QUICK 730PM UPDATE TO END THE WIND ADVISORY. ALL SITES HAVE BEEN
BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 45 MPH WIND GUSTS FOR TWO
HOURS...AND DO NOT EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO RAMP UP AGAIN.

WITH 615PM UPDATE...HAVE PULLED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DURING
THE EVENING WITH THINGS LOOKING CALM ON THE RADAR. ANTICIPATE
BEING ABLE TO BRING THE WIND ADVISORY DOWN BEFORE 10PM...BUT WITH
GUSTS HAVING REMAINED HIGH DURING THE LAST ONE TO TWO HOURS...WILL
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THE CURRENT TIME. ALSO UPDATED FOR HOURLY
TEMPERATURE TRENDS AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

FRONT WILL CROSS REGION THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH
STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT. ONLY STRAY SHOWERS NOW AS THE
FRONT AND SHORTWAVE HEAD EAST AND MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS IN. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. MODELS AGREE THERE WILL BE A COASTAL STORM BUT HOW FAR
WEST PRECIP SHIELD WILL REACH IS THE MAIN ISSUE. WITH AN OPEN WAVE
ALOFT SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST MOVER. USING A BLEND OF MODELS BRINGS
THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES...WITH
BEST CHANCE FOR 6 INCHES ACROSS GARRETT AND TUCKER COUNTIES WHERE
HIGHEST QPF WILL BE FORECAST. LESSER AMOUNTS FOR THE RIDGES OF
WESTMORELAND AND FAYETTE WHERE AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
LIGHTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. LOOKS TO BE QUITE A SHARP CUTOFF TO
NORTHWEST EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD WITH ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN OF
SNOW EAST OF PITTSBURGH TO MORGANTOWN. STILL EARLY FOR THIS SYSTEM
AND THE TRACK STILL COULD CHANGE QUITE A BIT AS WE GET CLOSER TO WEDNESDAY.

FOR THURSDAY COASTAL EXITS AND DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SHORTWAVE MOVE IN FOR THANKSGIVING WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND WELL
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO
DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TOWARD -10C.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING MID-WEEK
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS THANKSGIVING NIGHT...ENHANCED
JUST DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF OUR SE
RIDGES. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF EARLY
FRI...HOWEVER...AS SUBSIDENCE OCCURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND
CHOKE OUT THE REMAINING BL MOISTURE BY LATE FRI MORNING.

FROM THAT POINT THE EXTENDED PERIOD GETS A LITTLE TRICKY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES GREATLY. PRIMARILY STUCK CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE
BASED HEAVILY ON THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THIS BRIEFLY HOLDS THE SFC
HIGH OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN
UPPER TROF PROPELS A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WILL STREAM ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SUN RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS. RAISED TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WHICH MEANS THAT RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW COME INTO
PLAY...BUT ANY QPF ASSOCIATED LOOKS LIGHT.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENL VFR CONDS ARE EXPD ERLY THIS EVE BEHIND AN EXITING CDFNT.
WNDS ARE EXPD TO DMNSH...BUT GUSTS FM THE WSW ARND 20KT ARE STILL
EXPD. MVFR SC IS EPXD TO WORK SLOWLY EWD INTO THE AREA N OF THE
PA/WV BORDER AS COLD ADVCTN BEGINS. EXP AN INCR TO VFR BY MRNG
WITH VFR CU/SC CIGS...THOUGH DUJ WL LIKELY HOLD ON TO MVFR INTO
THE AFTN.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COASTAL LOW PRES COULD BRING PSBL RSTRNS INTO MID WK. PERIODIC
RSTRNS ARE PSBL INTO THE WKEND WITH SVRL WK CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE ONE RECORD HIGH TEMPREATURE THAT WAS SET TODAY WAS
DUBOIS...WITH AN OBSERVED HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 67 DEGREES. THE
PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 61...SET IN 1979.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ041.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 242314
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
614 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS COLDER AIR ENTERS THE
REGION. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE RIDGES
EAST OF PITTSBURGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH 615PM UPDATE...HAVE PULLED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DURING
THE EVENING WITH THINGS LOOKING CALM ON THE RADAR. ANTICIPATE
BEING ABLE TO BRING THE WIND ADVISORY DOWN BEFORE 10PM...BUT WITH
GUSTS HAVING REMAINED HIGH DURING THE LAST ONE TO TWO HOURS...WILL
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THE CURRENT TIME. ALSO UPDATED FOR HOURLY
TEMPERATURE TRENDS AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

FRONT WILL CROSS REGION THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH
STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT. ONLY STRAY SHOWERS NOW AS THE
FRONT AND SHORTWAVE HEAD EAST AND MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS IN. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. MODELS AGREE THERE WILL BE A COASTAL STORM BUT HOW FAR
WEST PRECIP SHIELD WILL REACH IS THE MAIN ISSUE. WITH AN OPEN WAVE
ALOFT SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST MOVER. USING A BLEND OF MODELS BRINGS
THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES...WITH
BEST CHANCE FOR 6 INCHES ACROSS GARRETT AND TUCKER COUNTIES WHERE
HIGHEST QPF WILL BE FORECAST. LESSER AMOUNTS FOR THE RIDGES OF
WESTMORELAND AND FAYETTE WHERE AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
LIGHTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. LOOKS TO BE QUITE A SHARP CUTOFF TO
NORTHWEST EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD WITH ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN OF
SNOW EAST OF PITTSBURGH TO MORGANTOWN. STILL EARLY FOR THIS SYSTEM
AND THE TRACK STILL COULD CHANGE QUITE A BIT AS WE GET CLOSER TO WEDNESDAY.

FOR THURSDAY COASTAL EXITS AND DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SHORTWAVE MOVE IN FOR THANKSGIVING WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND WELL
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO
DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TOWARD -10C.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING MID-WEEK
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS THANKSGIVING NIGHT...ENHANCED
JUST DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF OUR SE
RIDGES. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF EARLY
FRI...HOWEVER...AS SUBSIDENCE OCCURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND
CHOKE OUT THE REMAINING BL MOISTURE BY LATE FRI MORNING.

FROM THAT POINT THE EXTENDED PERIOD GETS A LITTLE TRICKY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES GREATLY. PRIMARILY STUCK CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE
BASED HEAVILY ON THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THIS BRIEFLY HOLDS THE SFC
HIGH OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN
UPPER TROF PROPELS A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WILL STREAM ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SUN RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS. RAISED TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WHICH MEANS THAT RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW COME INTO
PLAY...BUT ANY QPF ASSOCIATED LOOKS LIGHT.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENL VFR CONDS ARE EXPD ERLY THIS EVE BEHIND AN EXITING CDFNT.
WNDS ARE EXPD TO DMNSH...BUT GUSTS FM THE WSW ARND 20KT ARE STILL
EXPD. MVFR SC IS EPXD TO WORK SLOWLY EWD INTO THE AREA N OF THE
PA/WV BORDER AS COLD ADVCTN BEGINS. EXP AN INCR TO VFR BY MRNG
WITH VFR CU/SC CIGS...THOUGH DUJ WL LIKELY HOLD ON TO MVFR INTO
THE AFTN.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COASTAL LOW PRES COULD BRING PSBL RSTRNS INTO MID WK. PERIODIC
RSTRNS ARE PSBL INTO THE WKEND WITH SVRL WK CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE ONE RECORD HIGH TEMPREATURE THAT WAS SET TODAY WAS
DUBOIS...WITH AN OBSERVED HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 67 DEGREES. THE
PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 61...SET IN 1979.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ039>041-
     048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ001>004-012-
     021>023-041.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ041.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 242314
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
614 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS COLDER AIR ENTERS THE
REGION. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE RIDGES
EAST OF PITTSBURGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH 615PM UPDATE...HAVE PULLED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DURING
THE EVENING WITH THINGS LOOKING CALM ON THE RADAR. ANTICIPATE
BEING ABLE TO BRING THE WIND ADVISORY DOWN BEFORE 10PM...BUT WITH
GUSTS HAVING REMAINED HIGH DURING THE LAST ONE TO TWO HOURS...WILL
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THE CURRENT TIME. ALSO UPDATED FOR HOURLY
TEMPERATURE TRENDS AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

FRONT WILL CROSS REGION THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH
STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT. ONLY STRAY SHOWERS NOW AS THE
FRONT AND SHORTWAVE HEAD EAST AND MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS IN. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. MODELS AGREE THERE WILL BE A COASTAL STORM BUT HOW FAR
WEST PRECIP SHIELD WILL REACH IS THE MAIN ISSUE. WITH AN OPEN WAVE
ALOFT SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST MOVER. USING A BLEND OF MODELS BRINGS
THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES...WITH
BEST CHANCE FOR 6 INCHES ACROSS GARRETT AND TUCKER COUNTIES WHERE
HIGHEST QPF WILL BE FORECAST. LESSER AMOUNTS FOR THE RIDGES OF
WESTMORELAND AND FAYETTE WHERE AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
LIGHTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. LOOKS TO BE QUITE A SHARP CUTOFF TO
NORTHWEST EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD WITH ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN OF
SNOW EAST OF PITTSBURGH TO MORGANTOWN. STILL EARLY FOR THIS SYSTEM
AND THE TRACK STILL COULD CHANGE QUITE A BIT AS WE GET CLOSER TO WEDNESDAY.

FOR THURSDAY COASTAL EXITS AND DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SHORTWAVE MOVE IN FOR THANKSGIVING WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND WELL
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO
DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TOWARD -10C.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING MID-WEEK
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS THANKSGIVING NIGHT...ENHANCED
JUST DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF OUR SE
RIDGES. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF EARLY
FRI...HOWEVER...AS SUBSIDENCE OCCURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND
CHOKE OUT THE REMAINING BL MOISTURE BY LATE FRI MORNING.

FROM THAT POINT THE EXTENDED PERIOD GETS A LITTLE TRICKY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES GREATLY. PRIMARILY STUCK CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE
BASED HEAVILY ON THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THIS BRIEFLY HOLDS THE SFC
HIGH OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN
UPPER TROF PROPELS A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WILL STREAM ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SUN RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS. RAISED TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WHICH MEANS THAT RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW COME INTO
PLAY...BUT ANY QPF ASSOCIATED LOOKS LIGHT.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENL VFR CONDS ARE EXPD ERLY THIS EVE BEHIND AN EXITING CDFNT.
WNDS ARE EXPD TO DMNSH...BUT GUSTS FM THE WSW ARND 20KT ARE STILL
EXPD. MVFR SC IS EPXD TO WORK SLOWLY EWD INTO THE AREA N OF THE
PA/WV BORDER AS COLD ADVCTN BEGINS. EXP AN INCR TO VFR BY MRNG
WITH VFR CU/SC CIGS...THOUGH DUJ WL LIKELY HOLD ON TO MVFR INTO
THE AFTN.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COASTAL LOW PRES COULD BRING PSBL RSTRNS INTO MID WK. PERIODIC
RSTRNS ARE PSBL INTO THE WKEND WITH SVRL WK CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE ONE RECORD HIGH TEMPREATURE THAT WAS SET TODAY WAS
DUBOIS...WITH AN OBSERVED HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 67 DEGREES. THE
PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 61...SET IN 1979.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ039>041-
     048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ001>004-012-
     021>023-041.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ041.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 242002
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
302 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS COLDER AIR ENTERS THE
REGION. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE RIDGES
EAST OF PITTSBURGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONT WILL CROSS REGION THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH
STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT. CURRENT WIND ADVISORY END TIME STILL
LOOKS GOOD AS PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE WILL SLACKEN A BIT.
ONLY STRAY SHOWERS NOW AS THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE HEAD EAST AND
MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS IN. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PARTIAL
SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. MODELS AGREE THERE WILL BE A COASTAL STORM BUT HOW FAR
WEST PRECIP SHIELD WILL REACH IS THE MAIN ISSUE. WITH AN OPEN WAVE
ALOFT SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST MOVER. USING A BLEND OF MODELS BRINGS
THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES...WITH
BEST CHANCE FOR 6 INCHES ACROSS GARRETT AND TUCKER COUNTIES WHERE
HIGHEST QPF WILL BE FORECAST. LESSER AMOUNTS FOR THE RIDGES OF
WESTMORELAND AND FAYETTE WHERE AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
LIGHTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. LOOKS TO BE QUITE A SHARP CUTOFF TO
NORTHWEST EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD WITH ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN OF
SNOW EAST OF PITTSBURGH TO MORGANTOWN. STILL EARLY FOR THIS SYSTEM
AND THE TRACK STILL COULD CHANGE QUITE A BIT AS WE GET CLOSER TO WEDNESDAY.

FOR THURSDAY COASTAL EXITS AND DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SHORTWAVE MOVE IN FOR THANKSGIVING WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND WELL
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO
DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TOWARD -10C.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING MID-WEEK
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS THANKSGIVING NIGHT...ENHANCED
JUST DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF OUR SE
RIDGES. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF EARLY
FRI...HOWEVER...AS SUBSIDENCE OCCURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND
CHOKE OUT THE REMAINING BL MOISTURE BY LATE FRI MORNING.

FROM THAT POINT THE EXTENDED PERIOD GETS A LITTLE TRICKY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES GREATLY. PRIMARILY STUCK CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE
BASED HEAVILY ON THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THIS BRIEFLY HOLDS THE SFC
HIGH OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN
UPPER TROF PROPELS A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WILL STREAM ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SUN RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS. RAISED TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WHICH MEANS THAT RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW COME INTO
PLAY...BUT ANY QPF ASSOCIATED LOOKS LIGHT.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. WHILE VERY LITTLE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED AND SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON VISIBILITY...STRONG
WIND GUSTS WILL BE OF GREATER CONCERN. EXPECT SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST
WIND OF 20-25KTS WITH GUSTS TO 40KTS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS UNTIL THE FRONTS PASSAGE. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH BY LATER THIS EVENING BUT GUSTS TO 20KTS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. PER THE LATEST SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBS...SOME
MVFR CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A PERIOD THROUGH
THE EVENING BUT WITH THE LOW LIFTING THE LOWER CIGS TO THE NORTH
OPTED TO CARRY VFR FOR MOST SITES OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COASTAL LOW MAY BRING THE CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS
TO THE SOUTHEASTERN TAF SITES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW BY FRIDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE REGION TODAY. HERE IS
A SUMMARY OF CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH THE STANDING
RECORDS AND YEARS OF RECORD OCCURRENCE.

CITY                     FORECAST  RECORD/YEAR
PITTSBURGH INTERNATIONAL    71         69/1931
MORGANTOWN                  74         72/1979
ZANESVILLE                  65         70/2001
NEW PHILADELPHIA            65         71/1979
WHEELING                    71         70/2001
DUBOIS                      67         61/1979

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ039>041-
     048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ001>004-012-
     021>023-041.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ041.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 242002
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
302 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS COLDER AIR ENTERS THE
REGION. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE RIDGES
EAST OF PITTSBURGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONT WILL CROSS REGION THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH
STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT. CURRENT WIND ADVISORY END TIME STILL
LOOKS GOOD AS PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE WILL SLACKEN A BIT.
ONLY STRAY SHOWERS NOW AS THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE HEAD EAST AND
MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS IN. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PARTIAL
SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. MODELS AGREE THERE WILL BE A COASTAL STORM BUT HOW FAR
WEST PRECIP SHIELD WILL REACH IS THE MAIN ISSUE. WITH AN OPEN WAVE
ALOFT SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST MOVER. USING A BLEND OF MODELS BRINGS
THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES...WITH
BEST CHANCE FOR 6 INCHES ACROSS GARRETT AND TUCKER COUNTIES WHERE
HIGHEST QPF WILL BE FORECAST. LESSER AMOUNTS FOR THE RIDGES OF
WESTMORELAND AND FAYETTE WHERE AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
LIGHTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. LOOKS TO BE QUITE A SHARP CUTOFF TO
NORTHWEST EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD WITH ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN OF
SNOW EAST OF PITTSBURGH TO MORGANTOWN. STILL EARLY FOR THIS SYSTEM
AND THE TRACK STILL COULD CHANGE QUITE A BIT AS WE GET CLOSER TO WEDNESDAY.

FOR THURSDAY COASTAL EXITS AND DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SHORTWAVE MOVE IN FOR THANKSGIVING WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND WELL
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO
DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TOWARD -10C.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING MID-WEEK
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS THANKSGIVING NIGHT...ENHANCED
JUST DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF OUR SE
RIDGES. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF EARLY
FRI...HOWEVER...AS SUBSIDENCE OCCURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND
CHOKE OUT THE REMAINING BL MOISTURE BY LATE FRI MORNING.

FROM THAT POINT THE EXTENDED PERIOD GETS A LITTLE TRICKY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES GREATLY. PRIMARILY STUCK CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE
BASED HEAVILY ON THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THIS BRIEFLY HOLDS THE SFC
HIGH OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN
UPPER TROF PROPELS A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WILL STREAM ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SUN RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS. RAISED TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WHICH MEANS THAT RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW COME INTO
PLAY...BUT ANY QPF ASSOCIATED LOOKS LIGHT.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. WHILE VERY LITTLE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED AND SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON VISIBILITY...STRONG
WIND GUSTS WILL BE OF GREATER CONCERN. EXPECT SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST
WIND OF 20-25KTS WITH GUSTS TO 40KTS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS UNTIL THE FRONTS PASSAGE. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH BY LATER THIS EVENING BUT GUSTS TO 20KTS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. PER THE LATEST SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBS...SOME
MVFR CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A PERIOD THROUGH
THE EVENING BUT WITH THE LOW LIFTING THE LOWER CIGS TO THE NORTH
OPTED TO CARRY VFR FOR MOST SITES OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COASTAL LOW MAY BRING THE CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS
TO THE SOUTHEASTERN TAF SITES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW BY FRIDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE REGION TODAY. HERE IS
A SUMMARY OF CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH THE STANDING
RECORDS AND YEARS OF RECORD OCCURRENCE.

CITY                     FORECAST  RECORD/YEAR
PITTSBURGH INTERNATIONAL    71         69/1931
MORGANTOWN                  74         72/1979
ZANESVILLE                  65         70/2001
NEW PHILADELPHIA            65         71/1979
WHEELING                    71         70/2001
DUBOIS                      67         61/1979

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ039>041-
     048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ001>004-012-
     021>023-041.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ041.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241828
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
128 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS WILL CROSS THE REGION BY
EVENING. MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE WITH COLD FRONT NOW INTO EASTERN OHIO.
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES FOR LATE AFTERNOON. NO CHANGE TO POPS OR
WINDS. WINDS AHEAD OF AND JUST BEHIND FRONT STILL GUSTING TOWARD 50
MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH MIXING ALLOWING TAPPING OF LOW LEVEL JET
OF 50-60KTS AROUND 3-4K FEET. NOT ALL OF THIS WILL REACH SURFACE
AND BEST JET STAYS WEST TOWARD OHIO...SO CURRENT WIND ADVISORY
LOOKS GOOD. BEHIND FRONT TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY
INTO THE EVENING WITH MUCH COOLER AIR WRAPPING IN UNDERNEATH
STRONG LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUES MORNING FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SW...BUT A STOUT INVERSION
PROGGED AT H85 WILL HOLD LLVL MOISTURE IN THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS HOLDING STEADY THROUGH THE DAY. H85 TEMPS IN
THE -4C TO -6C RANGE STEEPENS LAPSE RATES IN THE BL ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. KEEPING POPS MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-80 DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

BRIEF RESPITE FROM DISTURBED WEATHER TUES EVENING...BUT THE NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES WEDS MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO DISRUPT HOLIDAY
TRAVEL...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE HEADED EAST. A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WILL
TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDS WITH THE WRN EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE ERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. EXACT PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION DEPEND ON THE INTERACTION WITH A CLIPPER-TYPE
SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS. ATTM MODEL SOLNS STILL VARY
GREATLY WITH THE NAM BRINGING THE PLAINS SHORTWAVE IN
QUICKER...ULTIMATELY PUSHING THE COASTAL LOW EAST OF THE
AREA....HOLDING ALL PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT OUT OF OUR
RIDGES. THE 00Z ECMWF IS ON THE OPPOSITE END OF THE SPECTRUM
ALLOWING THE LOW TO TRACK FURTHER WEST WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING
WEST TO AT LEAST THE OHIO BORDER. WITH THIS MUCH SPREAD...DECIDED TO
HOLD ONTO THE SREF AS GUIDANCE...WHICH IS A DECENT COMPROMISE. POPS
WERE EXPANDED WESTWARD...HOWEVER...TO SHOW AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION GETTING WEST OF THE RIDGES.

COMPLICATING MATTERS FOR THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPS HOVERING
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING FOR LOCATIONS RECEIVING PRECIPITATION.
ATTM...OPTED FOR A MAV/MOS BLEND FOR HIGHS WEDS...AND APPLIED A
LIBERAL RAIN/SNOW DELINEATION...GIVEN THE FAIRLY COLD AIR ALOFT AND
A RELATIVELY SHALLOW WARM LAYER NEAR THE SFC. ALL TOLD...THROUGH
EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING...BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE
CLIPPER...HAVE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE RIDGES AND LITTLE TO
NO SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WEST. FOR
REFERENCE...THE GFS...WHICH HOLDS A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE 00Z ECMWF
MODEL MENTIONED ABOVE...GENERATES AROUND 6" IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS THROUGH WEDS NIGHT.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING MID-WEEK SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS THANKSGIVING NIGHT...ENHANCED JUST
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF OUR SE RIDGES.
THESE SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF EARLY FRI...HOWEVER...AS
SUBSIDENCE OCCURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL EFFECTIVELY LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND CHOKE OUT THE REMAINING
BL MOISTURE BY LATE FRI MORNING.

FROM THAT POINT THE EXTENDED PERIOD GETS A LITTLE TRICKY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES GREATLY. PRIMARILY STUCK CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE
BASED HEAVILY ON THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THIS BRIEFLY HOLDS THE SFC
HIGH OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN
UPPER TROF PROPELS A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WILL STREAM ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SUN RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS. RAISED TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WHICH MEANS THAT RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW COME INTO
PLAY...BUT ANY QPF ASSOCIATED LOOKS LIGHT.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. WHILE VERY LITTLE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED AND SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON VISIBILITY...STRONG
WIND GUSTS WILL BE OF GREATER CONCERN. EXPECT SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST
WIND OF 20-25KTS WITH GUSTS TO 40KTS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS UNTIL THE FRONTS PASSAGE. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH BY LATER THIS EVENING BUT GUSTS TO 20KTS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. PER THE LATEST SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBS...SOME
MVFR CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A PERIOD THROUGH
THE EVENING BUT WITH THE LOW LIFTING THE LOWER CIGS TO THE NORTH
OPTED TO CARRY VFR FOR MOST SITES OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COASTAL LOW MAY BRING THE CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS
TO THE SOUTHEASTERN TAF SITES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW BY FRIDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE REGION TODAY. HERE IS
A SUMMARY OF CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH THE STANDING
RECORDS AND YEARS OF RECORD OCCURRENCE.

CITY                     FORECAST  RECORD/YEAR
PITTSBURGH INTERNATIONAL    71         69/1931
MORGANTOWN                  74         72/1979
ZANESVILLE                  65         70/2001
NEW PHILADELPHIA            65         71/1979
WHEELING                    71         70/2001
DUBOIS                      67         61/1979

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ039>041-
     048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ001>004-012-
     021>023-041.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241446
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
946 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT AND A
RETURN TO MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN OHIO WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. FRONT WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM BETTER UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SO
NO MENTION OF THUNDER FOR NOW. WINDS AHEAD OF AND JUST BEHIND
FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO GUST TOWARD 50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MIXING ALLOWING TAPPING OF LOW LEVEL JET OF 50-60KTS AROUND 3-4K
FEET. NOT ALL OF THIS WILL REACH SURFACE AND BEST JET STAYS WEST
TOWARD OHIO...SO CURRENT WIND ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD. BEHIND FRONT
TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY INTO THE EVENING WITH MUCH
COOLER AIR WRAPPING IN UNDERNEATH STRONG LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES
INTO EASTERN CANADA. ONLY LIMITED CHANGES TO HOURLY TEMPS AND POPS
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUES MORNING FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SW...BUT A STOUT INVERSION
PROGGED AT H85 WILL HOLD LLVL MOISTURE IN THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS HOLDING STEADY THROUGH THE DAY. H85 TEMPS IN
THE -4C TO -6C RANGE STEEPENS LAPSE RATES IN THE BL ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. KEEPING POPS MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-80 DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

BRIEF RESPITE FROM DISTURBED WEATHER TUES EVENING...BUT THE NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES WEDS MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO DISRUPT HOLIDAY
TRAVEL...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE HEADED EAST. A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WILL
TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDS WITH THE WRN EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE ERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. EXACT PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION DEPEND ON THE INTERACTION WITH A CLIPPER-TYPE
SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS. ATTM MODEL SOLNS STILL VARY
GREATLY WITH THE NAM BRINGING THE PLAINS SHORTWAVE IN
QUICKER...ULTIMATELY PUSHING THE COASTAL LOW EAST OF THE
AREA....HOLDING ALL PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT OUT OF OUR
RIDGES. THE 00Z ECMWF IS ON THE OPPOSITE END OF THE SPECTRUM
ALLOWING THE LOW TO TRACK FURTHER WEST WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING
WEST TO AT LEAST THE OHIO BORDER. WITH THIS MUCH SPREAD...DECIDED TO
HOLD ONTO THE SREF AS GUIDANCE...WHICH IS A DECENT COMPROMISE. POPS
WERE EXPANDED WESTWARD...HOWEVER...TO SHOW AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION GETTING WEST OF THE RIDGES.

COMPLICATING MATTERS FOR THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPS HOVERING
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING FOR LOCATIONS RECEIVING PRECIPITATION.
ATTM...OPTED FOR A MAV/MOS BLEND FOR HIGHS WEDS...AND APPLIED A
LIBERAL RAIN/SNOW DELINEATION...GIVEN THE FAIRLY COLD AIR ALOFT AND
A RELATIVELY SHALLOW WARM LAYER NEAR THE SFC. ALL TOLD...THROUGH
EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING...BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE
CLIPPER...HAVE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE RIDGES AND LITTLE TO
NO SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WEST. FOR
REFERENCE...THE GFS...WHICH HOLDS A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE 00Z ECMWF
MODEL MENTIONED ABOVE...GENERATES AROUND 6" IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS THROUGH WEDS NIGHT.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING MID-WEEK SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS THANKSGIVING NIGHT...ENHANCED JUST
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF OUR SE RIDGES.
THESE SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF EARLY FRI...HOWEVER...AS
SUBSIDENCE OCCURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL EFFECTIVELY LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND CHOKE OUT THE REMAINING
BL MOISTURE BY LATE FRI MORNING.

FROM THAT POINT THE EXTENDED PERIOD GETS A LITTLE TRICKY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES GREATLY. PRIMARILY STUCK CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE
BASED HEAVILY ON THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THIS BRIEFLY HOLDS THE SFC
HIGH OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN
UPPER TROF PROPELS A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WILL STREAM ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SUN RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS. RAISED TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WHICH MEANS THAT RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW COME INTO
PLAY...BUT ANY QPF ASSOCIATED LOOKS LIGHT.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WHILE VERY LITTLE RAINFALL WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...THE BIGGER IMPACT WITH BE WIND GUSTS. S-SW
WIND GUSTS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 40KTS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL OF THE
SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME
THUNDER...ESPECIALLY AT THE NORTHERN SITES BUT WILL NOT MAKE MENTION
OF THIS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AT THE MOMENT.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.


OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE REGION TODAY. HERE IS
A SUMMARY OF CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH THE STANDING
RECORDS AND YEARS OF RECORD OCCURRENCE.

CITY                     FORECAST  RECORD/YEAR
PITTSBURGH INTERNATIONAL    71         69/1931
MORGANTOWN                  74         72/1979
ZANESVILLE                  65         70/2001
NEW PHILADELPHIA            65         71/1979
WHEELING                    71         70/2001
DUBOIS                      67         61/1979

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ039>041-
     048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ001>004-012-
     021>023-041.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241446
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
946 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT AND A
RETURN TO MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN OHIO WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. FRONT WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM BETTER UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SO
NO MENTION OF THUNDER FOR NOW. WINDS AHEAD OF AND JUST BEHIND
FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO GUST TOWARD 50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MIXING ALLOWING TAPPING OF LOW LEVEL JET OF 50-60KTS AROUND 3-4K
FEET. NOT ALL OF THIS WILL REACH SURFACE AND BEST JET STAYS WEST
TOWARD OHIO...SO CURRENT WIND ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD. BEHIND FRONT
TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY INTO THE EVENING WITH MUCH
COOLER AIR WRAPPING IN UNDERNEATH STRONG LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES
INTO EASTERN CANADA. ONLY LIMITED CHANGES TO HOURLY TEMPS AND POPS
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUES MORNING FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SW...BUT A STOUT INVERSION
PROGGED AT H85 WILL HOLD LLVL MOISTURE IN THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS HOLDING STEADY THROUGH THE DAY. H85 TEMPS IN
THE -4C TO -6C RANGE STEEPENS LAPSE RATES IN THE BL ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. KEEPING POPS MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-80 DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

BRIEF RESPITE FROM DISTURBED WEATHER TUES EVENING...BUT THE NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES WEDS MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO DISRUPT HOLIDAY
TRAVEL...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE HEADED EAST. A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WILL
TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDS WITH THE WRN EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE ERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. EXACT PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION DEPEND ON THE INTERACTION WITH A CLIPPER-TYPE
SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS. ATTM MODEL SOLNS STILL VARY
GREATLY WITH THE NAM BRINGING THE PLAINS SHORTWAVE IN
QUICKER...ULTIMATELY PUSHING THE COASTAL LOW EAST OF THE
AREA....HOLDING ALL PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT OUT OF OUR
RIDGES. THE 00Z ECMWF IS ON THE OPPOSITE END OF THE SPECTRUM
ALLOWING THE LOW TO TRACK FURTHER WEST WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING
WEST TO AT LEAST THE OHIO BORDER. WITH THIS MUCH SPREAD...DECIDED TO
HOLD ONTO THE SREF AS GUIDANCE...WHICH IS A DECENT COMPROMISE. POPS
WERE EXPANDED WESTWARD...HOWEVER...TO SHOW AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION GETTING WEST OF THE RIDGES.

COMPLICATING MATTERS FOR THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPS HOVERING
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING FOR LOCATIONS RECEIVING PRECIPITATION.
ATTM...OPTED FOR A MAV/MOS BLEND FOR HIGHS WEDS...AND APPLIED A
LIBERAL RAIN/SNOW DELINEATION...GIVEN THE FAIRLY COLD AIR ALOFT AND
A RELATIVELY SHALLOW WARM LAYER NEAR THE SFC. ALL TOLD...THROUGH
EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING...BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE
CLIPPER...HAVE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE RIDGES AND LITTLE TO
NO SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WEST. FOR
REFERENCE...THE GFS...WHICH HOLDS A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE 00Z ECMWF
MODEL MENTIONED ABOVE...GENERATES AROUND 6" IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS THROUGH WEDS NIGHT.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING MID-WEEK SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS THANKSGIVING NIGHT...ENHANCED JUST
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF OUR SE RIDGES.
THESE SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF EARLY FRI...HOWEVER...AS
SUBSIDENCE OCCURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL EFFECTIVELY LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND CHOKE OUT THE REMAINING
BL MOISTURE BY LATE FRI MORNING.

FROM THAT POINT THE EXTENDED PERIOD GETS A LITTLE TRICKY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES GREATLY. PRIMARILY STUCK CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE
BASED HEAVILY ON THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THIS BRIEFLY HOLDS THE SFC
HIGH OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN
UPPER TROF PROPELS A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WILL STREAM ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SUN RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS. RAISED TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WHICH MEANS THAT RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW COME INTO
PLAY...BUT ANY QPF ASSOCIATED LOOKS LIGHT.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WHILE VERY LITTLE RAINFALL WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...THE BIGGER IMPACT WITH BE WIND GUSTS. S-SW
WIND GUSTS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 40KTS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL OF THE
SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME
THUNDER...ESPECIALLY AT THE NORTHERN SITES BUT WILL NOT MAKE MENTION
OF THIS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AT THE MOMENT.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.


OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE REGION TODAY. HERE IS
A SUMMARY OF CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH THE STANDING
RECORDS AND YEARS OF RECORD OCCURRENCE.

CITY                     FORECAST  RECORD/YEAR
PITTSBURGH INTERNATIONAL    71         69/1931
MORGANTOWN                  74         72/1979
ZANESVILLE                  65         70/2001
NEW PHILADELPHIA            65         71/1979
WHEELING                    71         70/2001
DUBOIS                      67         61/1979

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ039>041-
     048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ001>004-012-
     021>023-041.

&&

$$












000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241130
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
630 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY WINDS TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT AND A RETURN
TO MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FAIRLY STARK DRY SLOT IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
FOLLOWING THE SPRAWLING UPPER LOW THAT IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS HAVE MANAGED TO MIX
DOWN IN THE SUBSIDENCE IN THIS FEATURE VIA A FAIRLY DISCERNIBLE
TROPOPAUSE FOLD OVERNIGHT ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KTS. LUCKILY
ENOUGH...THE BEST SUBSIDENCE AND DEEPEST PV PENETRATION INTO THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE HAS ALREADY CROSSED OUR AREA...SO FOR THE
MOMENT...WIND GUSTS HAVE TEMPORARILY PEAKED WITHOUT INCIDENT
ACROSS THE AREA.

YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS POISED TO TRAVERSE THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES BY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER PV FIELD WILL AGAIN BE CONTORTED BY
THIS FEATURE AS YET ANOTHER INTRUSION OF HIGH PV AIR IS SET TO
DROP THE DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE GREATLY BY AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN OHIO. THIS IS WELL DEPICTED ON MODEL CROSS SECTIONS VIA
A VERY DEEP TROPOPAUSE FOLD THAT IS PULLING THE 1.5 PVU SURFACE
DOWN TOWARD AND BELOW 600 MB ON MOST GUIDANCE. SUBSIDENCE BRINGING
THIS FEATURE DOWNWARD COMBINED WITH 55-70 KTS OF AVAILABLE
MOMENTUM WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH IN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OHIO. HOWEVER...FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH AN EAST ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND THE REMAINDER OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...A WEAKER FIELD OF MOMENTUM AND LESS POTENT
MECHANISM FOR DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER SEEM LIKELY TO ALLOW FOR
OUR GUSTS TO TOP OUT AROUND 50 MPH. THIS PUTS US JUST A BIT SHY OF
THE CRITERIA FOR A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH JIVES VERY WELL WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AS SUCH...WIND ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR
ALL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IF ANYWHERE IS TO OVERACHIEVE AN
ADVISORY...IT WILL LIKELY BE OUR WESTERNMOST OHIO COUNTIES OR EVEN
MERCER COUNTY AS THE HIGHEST AVAILABLE MOMENTUM VALUES ARE IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS DURING MID-AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL LIKELY TAKE A WHILE TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF THIS EVENING
WITH SOME LESSER GUSTS CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE BIGGER STORY WILL LIKELY BE THE THERMAL ROLLER
COASTER. WITH EXTREMELY STRONG MIXING AND SUBSIDENCE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF +8 TO
+10C WITH A FULLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...SOME 70S WILL CERTAINLY
BE POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH...PARTICULARLY WITH A FEW
SUN BREAKS. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT RIPS THROUGH IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
DROP 850 MB TEMPERATURES INTO THE -4 TO -8C RANGE BY THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THIS WILL LIKELY DROP SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND 35
DEGREES FROM TODAY`S HIGHS TO TONIGHT`S LOWS AND RETURN US TO OUR
RECENT COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AFTER A VERY WARM MONDAY.
FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUES MORNING FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SW...BUT A STOUT INVERSION
PROGGED AT H85 WILL HOLD LLVL MOISTURE IN THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS HOLDING STEADY THROUGH THE DAY. H85 TEMPS IN
THE -4C TO -6C RANGE STEEPENS LAPSE RATES IN THE BL ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. KEEPING POPS MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-80 DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

BRIEF RESPITE FROM DISTURBED WEATHER TUES EVENING...BUT THE NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES WEDS MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO DISRUPT HOLIDAY
TRAVEL...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE HEADED EAST. A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WILL
TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDS WITH THE WRN EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE ERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. EXACT PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION DEPEND ON THE INTERACTION WITH A CLIPPER-TYPE
SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS. ATTM MODEL SOLNS STILL VARY
GREATLY WITH THE NAM BRINGING THE PLAINS SHORTWAVE IN
QUICKER...ULTIMATELY PUSHING THE COASTAL LOW EAST OF THE
AREA....HOLDING ALL PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT OUT OF OUR
RIDGES. THE 00Z ECMWF IS ON THE OPPOSITE END OF THE SPECTRUM
ALLOWING THE LOW TO TRACK FURTHER WEST WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING
WEST TO AT LEAST THE OHIO BORDER. WITH THIS MUCH SPREAD...DECIDED TO
HOLD ONTO THE SREF AS GUIDANCE...WHICH IS A DECENT COMPROMISE. POPS
WERE EXPANDED WESTWARD...HOWEVER...TO SHOW AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION GETTING WEST OF THE RIDGES.

COMPLICATING MATTERS FOR THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPS HOVERING
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING FOR LOCATIONS RECEIVING PRECIPITATION.
ATTM...OPTED FOR A MAV/MOS BLEND FOR HIGHS WEDS...AND APPLIED A
LIBERAL RAIN/SNOW DELINEATION...GIVEN THE FAIRLY COLD AIR ALOFT AND
A RELATIVELY SHALLOW WARM LAYER NEAR THE SFC. ALL TOLD...THROUGH
EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING...BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE
CLIPPER...HAVE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE RIDGES AND LITTLE TO
NO SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WEST. FOR
REFERENCE...THE GFS...WHICH HOLDS A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE 00Z ECMWF
MODEL MENTIONED ABOVE...GENERATES AROUND 6" IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS THROUGH WEDS NIGHT.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING MID-WEEK SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS THANKSGIVING NIGHT...ENHANCED JUST
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF OUR SE RIDGES.
THESE SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF EARLY FRI...HOWEVER...AS
SUBSIDENCE OCCURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL EFFECTIVELY LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND CHOKE OUT THE REMAINING
BL MOISTURE BY LATE FRI MORNING.

FROM THAT POINT THE EXTENDED PERIOD GETS A LITTLE TRICKY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES GREATLY. PRIMARILY STUCK CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE
BASED HEAVILY ON THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THIS BRIEFLY HOLDS THE SFC
HIGH OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN
UPPER TROF PROPELS A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WILL STREAM ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SUN RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS. RAISED TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WHICH MEANS THAT RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW COME INTO
PLAY...BUT ANY QPF ASSOCIATED LOOKS LIGHT.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LARGE SCALE DRY IS CURRENTLY PUSHING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WINDS GUSTING AND TURNING A BIT MORE
SOUTHERLY. BEHIND THIS DRY SLOT...WHILE STRATUS WAS SOMEWHAT
PERVASIVE EARLIER...MIXING AND SUBSIDENCE HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON
THIS STRATUS...ALLOWING FOR SKIES TO START TO BREAK UP
SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AT WORST BROKEN SKIES OVER MOST
SITES BY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL ALSO ARRIVE MORE STRONGLY BY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OVER 40
KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES. FRIES


OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE REGION TODAY. HERE IS
A SUMMARY OF CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH THE STANDING
RECORDS AND YEARS OF RECORD OCCURRENCE.

CITY                     FORECAST  RECORD/YEAR
PITTSBURGH INTERNATIONAL    71         69/1931
MORGANTOWN                  74         72/1979
ZANESVILLE                  65         70/2001
NEW PHILADELPHIA            65         71/1979
WHEELING                    71         70/2001
DUBOIS                      67         61/1979

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241105
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
605 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY WINDS TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT AND A RETURN
TO MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FAIRLY STARK DRY SLOT IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
FOLLOWING THE SPRAWLING UPPER LOW THAT IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS HAVE MANAGED TO MIX
DOWN IN THE SUBSIDENCE IN THIS FEATURE VIA A FAIRLY DISCERNIBLE
TROPOPAUSE FOLD OVERNIGHT ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KTS. LUCKILY
ENOUGH...THE BEST SUBSIDENCE AND DEEPEST PV PENETRATION INTO THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE HAS ALREADY CROSSED OUR AREA...SO FOR THE
MOMENT...WIND GUSTS HAVE TEMPORARILY PEAKED WITHOUT INCIDENT
ACROSS THE AREA.

YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS POISED TO TRAVERSE THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES BY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER PV FIELD WILL AGAIN BE CONTORTED BY
THIS FEATURE AS YET ANOTHER INTRUSION OF HIGH PV AIR IS SET TO
DROP THE DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE GREATLY BY AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN OHIO. THIS IS WELL DEPICTED ON MODEL CROSS SECTIONS VIA
A VERY DEEP TROPOPAUSE FOLD THAT IS PULLING THE 1.5 PVU SURFACE
DOWN TOWARD AND BELOW 600 MB ON MOST GUIDANCE. SUBSIDENCE BRINGING
THIS FEATURE DOWNWARD COMBINED WITH 55-70 KTS OF AVAILABLE
MOMENTUM WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH IN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OHIO. HOWEVER...FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH AN EAST ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND THE REMAINDER OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...A WEAKER FIELD OF MOMENTUM AND LESS POTENT
MECHANISM FOR DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER SEEM LIKELY TO ALLOW FOR
OUR GUSTS TO TOP OUT AROUND 50 MPH. THIS PUTS US JUST A BIT SHY OF
THE CRITERIA FOR A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH JIVES VERY WELL WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AS SUCH...WIND ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR
ALL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IF ANYWHERE IS TO OVERACHIEVE AN
ADVISORY...IT WILL LIKELY BE OUR WESTERNMOST OHIO COUNTIES OR EVEN
MERCER COUNTY AS THE HIGHEST AVAILABLE MOMENTUM VALUES ARE IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS DURING MID-AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL LIKELY TAKE A WHILE TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF THIS EVENING
WITH SOME LESSER GUSTS CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE BIGGER STORY WILL LIKELY BE THE THERMAL ROLLER
COASTER. WITH EXTREMELY STRONG MIXING AND SUBSIDENCE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF +8 TO
+10C WITH A FULLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...SOME 70S WILL CERTAINLY
BE POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH...PARTICULARLY WITH A FEW
SUN BREAKS. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT RIPS THROUGH IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
DROP 850 MB TEMPERATURES INTO THE -4 TO -8C RANGE BY THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THIS WILL LIKELY DROP SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND 35
DEGREES FROM TODAY`S HIGHS TO TONIGHT`S LOWS AND RETURN US TO OUR
RECENT COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AFTER A VERY WARM MONDAY.
FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUES MORNING FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SW...BUT A STOUT INVERSION
PROGGED AT H85 WILL HOLD LLVL MOISTURE IN THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS HOLDING STEADY THROUGH THE DAY. H85 TEMPS IN
THE -4C TO -6C RANGE STEEPENS LAPSE RATES IN THE BL ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. KEEPING POPS MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-80 DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

BRIEF RESPITE FROM DISTURBED WEATHER TUES EVENING...BUT THE NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES WEDS MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO DISRUPT HOLIDAY
TRAVEL...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE HEADED EAST. A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WILL
TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDS WITH THE WRN EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE ERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. EXACT PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION DEPEND ON THE INTERACTION WITH A CLIPPER-TYPE
SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS. ATTM MODEL SOLNS STILL VARY
GREATLY WITH THE NAM BRINGING THE PLAINS SHORTWAVE IN
QUICKER...ULTIMATELY PUSHING THE COASTAL LOW EAST OF THE
AREA....HOLDING ALL PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT OUT OF OUR
RIDGES. THE 00Z ECMWF IS ON THE OPPOSITE END OF THE SPECTRUM
ALLOWING THE LOW TO TRACK FURTHER WEST WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING
WEST TO AT LEAST THE OHIO BORDER. WITH THIS MUCH SPREAD...DECIDED TO
HOLD ONTO THE SREF AS GUIDANCE...WHICH IS A DECENT COMPROMISE. POPS
WERE EXPANDED WESTWARD...HOWEVER...TO SHOW AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION GETTING WEST OF THE RIDGES.

COMPLICATING MATTERS FOR THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPS HOVERING
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING FOR LOCATIONS RECEIVING PRECIPITATION.
ATTM...OPTED FOR A MAV/MOS BLEND FOR HIGHS WEDS...AND APPLIED A
LIBERAL RAIN/SNOW DELINEATION...GIVEN THE FAIRLY COLD AIR ALOFT AND
A RELATIVELY SHALLOW WARM LAYER NEAR THE SFC. ALL TOLD...THROUGH
EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING...BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE
CLIPPER...HAVE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE RIDGES AND LITTLE TO
NO SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WEST. FOR
REFERENCE...THE GFS...WHICH HOLDS A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE 00Z ECMWF
MODEL MENTIONED ABOVE...GENERATES AROUND 6" IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS THROUGH WEDS NIGHT.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING MID-WEEK SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS THANKSGIVING NIGHT...ENHANCED JUST
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF OUR SE RIDGES.
THESE SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF EARLY FRI...HOWEVER...AS
SUBSIDENCE OCCURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL EFFECTIVELY LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND CHOKE OUT THE REMAINING
BL MOISTURE BY LATE FRI MORNING.

FROM THAT POINT THE EXTENDED PERIOD GETS A LITTLE TRICKY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES GREATLY. PRIMARILY STUCK CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE
BASED HEAVILY ON THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THIS BRIEFLY HOLDS THE SFC
HIGH OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN
UPPER TROF PROPELS A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WILL STREAM ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SUN RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS. RAISED TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WHICH MEANS THAT RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW COME INTO
PLAY...BUT ANY QPF ASSOCIATED LOOKS LIGHT.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LARGE SCALE DRY IS CURRENTLY PUSHING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WINDS GUSTING AND TURNING A BIT MORE
SOUTHERLY. BEHIND THIS DRY SLOT...WHILE STRATUS WAS SOMEWHAT
PERVASIVE EARLIER...MIXING AND SUBSIDENCE HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON
THIS STRATUS...ALLOWING FOR SKIES TO START TO BREAK UP
SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AT WORST BROKEN SKIES OVER MOST
SITES BY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL ALSO ARRIVE MORE STRONGLY BY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OVER 40
KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES. FRIES


OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241105
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
605 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY WINDS TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT AND A RETURN
TO MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FAIRLY STARK DRY SLOT IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
FOLLOWING THE SPRAWLING UPPER LOW THAT IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS HAVE MANAGED TO MIX
DOWN IN THE SUBSIDENCE IN THIS FEATURE VIA A FAIRLY DISCERNIBLE
TROPOPAUSE FOLD OVERNIGHT ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KTS. LUCKILY
ENOUGH...THE BEST SUBSIDENCE AND DEEPEST PV PENETRATION INTO THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE HAS ALREADY CROSSED OUR AREA...SO FOR THE
MOMENT...WIND GUSTS HAVE TEMPORARILY PEAKED WITHOUT INCIDENT
ACROSS THE AREA.

YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS POISED TO TRAVERSE THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES BY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER PV FIELD WILL AGAIN BE CONTORTED BY
THIS FEATURE AS YET ANOTHER INTRUSION OF HIGH PV AIR IS SET TO
DROP THE DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE GREATLY BY AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN OHIO. THIS IS WELL DEPICTED ON MODEL CROSS SECTIONS VIA
A VERY DEEP TROPOPAUSE FOLD THAT IS PULLING THE 1.5 PVU SURFACE
DOWN TOWARD AND BELOW 600 MB ON MOST GUIDANCE. SUBSIDENCE BRINGING
THIS FEATURE DOWNWARD COMBINED WITH 55-70 KTS OF AVAILABLE
MOMENTUM WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH IN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OHIO. HOWEVER...FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH AN EAST ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND THE REMAINDER OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...A WEAKER FIELD OF MOMENTUM AND LESS POTENT
MECHANISM FOR DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER SEEM LIKELY TO ALLOW FOR
OUR GUSTS TO TOP OUT AROUND 50 MPH. THIS PUTS US JUST A BIT SHY OF
THE CRITERIA FOR A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH JIVES VERY WELL WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AS SUCH...WIND ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR
ALL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IF ANYWHERE IS TO OVERACHIEVE AN
ADVISORY...IT WILL LIKELY BE OUR WESTERNMOST OHIO COUNTIES OR EVEN
MERCER COUNTY AS THE HIGHEST AVAILABLE MOMENTUM VALUES ARE IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS DURING MID-AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL LIKELY TAKE A WHILE TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF THIS EVENING
WITH SOME LESSER GUSTS CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE BIGGER STORY WILL LIKELY BE THE THERMAL ROLLER
COASTER. WITH EXTREMELY STRONG MIXING AND SUBSIDENCE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF +8 TO
+10C WITH A FULLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...SOME 70S WILL CERTAINLY
BE POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH...PARTICULARLY WITH A FEW
SUN BREAKS. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT RIPS THROUGH IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
DROP 850 MB TEMPERATURES INTO THE -4 TO -8C RANGE BY THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THIS WILL LIKELY DROP SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND 35
DEGREES FROM TODAY`S HIGHS TO TONIGHT`S LOWS AND RETURN US TO OUR
RECENT COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AFTER A VERY WARM MONDAY.
FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUES MORNING FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SW...BUT A STOUT INVERSION
PROGGED AT H85 WILL HOLD LLVL MOISTURE IN THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS HOLDING STEADY THROUGH THE DAY. H85 TEMPS IN
THE -4C TO -6C RANGE STEEPENS LAPSE RATES IN THE BL ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. KEEPING POPS MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-80 DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

BRIEF RESPITE FROM DISTURBED WEATHER TUES EVENING...BUT THE NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES WEDS MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO DISRUPT HOLIDAY
TRAVEL...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE HEADED EAST. A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WILL
TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDS WITH THE WRN EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE ERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. EXACT PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION DEPEND ON THE INTERACTION WITH A CLIPPER-TYPE
SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS. ATTM MODEL SOLNS STILL VARY
GREATLY WITH THE NAM BRINGING THE PLAINS SHORTWAVE IN
QUICKER...ULTIMATELY PUSHING THE COASTAL LOW EAST OF THE
AREA....HOLDING ALL PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT OUT OF OUR
RIDGES. THE 00Z ECMWF IS ON THE OPPOSITE END OF THE SPECTRUM
ALLOWING THE LOW TO TRACK FURTHER WEST WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING
WEST TO AT LEAST THE OHIO BORDER. WITH THIS MUCH SPREAD...DECIDED TO
HOLD ONTO THE SREF AS GUIDANCE...WHICH IS A DECENT COMPROMISE. POPS
WERE EXPANDED WESTWARD...HOWEVER...TO SHOW AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION GETTING WEST OF THE RIDGES.

COMPLICATING MATTERS FOR THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPS HOVERING
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING FOR LOCATIONS RECEIVING PRECIPITATION.
ATTM...OPTED FOR A MAV/MOS BLEND FOR HIGHS WEDS...AND APPLIED A
LIBERAL RAIN/SNOW DELINEATION...GIVEN THE FAIRLY COLD AIR ALOFT AND
A RELATIVELY SHALLOW WARM LAYER NEAR THE SFC. ALL TOLD...THROUGH
EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING...BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE
CLIPPER...HAVE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE RIDGES AND LITTLE TO
NO SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WEST. FOR
REFERENCE...THE GFS...WHICH HOLDS A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE 00Z ECMWF
MODEL MENTIONED ABOVE...GENERATES AROUND 6" IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS THROUGH WEDS NIGHT.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING MID-WEEK SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS THANKSGIVING NIGHT...ENHANCED JUST
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF OUR SE RIDGES.
THESE SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF EARLY FRI...HOWEVER...AS
SUBSIDENCE OCCURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL EFFECTIVELY LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND CHOKE OUT THE REMAINING
BL MOISTURE BY LATE FRI MORNING.

FROM THAT POINT THE EXTENDED PERIOD GETS A LITTLE TRICKY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES GREATLY. PRIMARILY STUCK CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE
BASED HEAVILY ON THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THIS BRIEFLY HOLDS THE SFC
HIGH OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN
UPPER TROF PROPELS A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WILL STREAM ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SUN RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS. RAISED TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WHICH MEANS THAT RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW COME INTO
PLAY...BUT ANY QPF ASSOCIATED LOOKS LIGHT.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LARGE SCALE DRY IS CURRENTLY PUSHING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WINDS GUSTING AND TURNING A BIT MORE
SOUTHERLY. BEHIND THIS DRY SLOT...WHILE STRATUS WAS SOMEWHAT
PERVASIVE EARLIER...MIXING AND SUBSIDENCE HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON
THIS STRATUS...ALLOWING FOR SKIES TO START TO BREAK UP
SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AT WORST BROKEN SKIES OVER MOST
SITES BY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL ALSO ARRIVE MORE STRONGLY BY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OVER 40
KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES. FRIES


OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240947
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
431 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY WINDS TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT AND A RETURN
TO MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FAIRLY STARK DRY SLOT IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
FOLLOWING THE SPRAWLING UPPER LOW THAT IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS HAVE MANAGED TO MIX
DOWN IN THE SUBSIDENCE IN THIS FEATURE VIA A FAIRLY DISCERNIBLE
TROPOPAUSE FOLD OVERNIGHT ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KTS. LUCKILY
ENOUGH...THE BEST SUBSIDENCE AND DEEPEST PV PENETRATION INTO THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE HAS ALREADY CROSSED OUR AREA...SO FOR THE
MOMENT...WIND GUSTS HAVE TEMPORARILY PEAKED WITHOUT INCIDENT
ACROSS THE AREA.

YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS POISED TO TRAVERSE THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES BY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER PV FIELD WILL AGAIN BE CONTORTED BY
THIS FEATURE AS YET ANOTHER INTRUSION OF HIGH PV AIR IS SET TO
DROP THE DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE GREATLY BY AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN OHIO. THIS IS WELL DEPICTED ON MODEL CROSS SECTIONS VIA
A VERY DEEP TROPOPAUSE FOLD THAT IS PULLING THE 1.5 PVU SURFACE
DOWN TOWARD AND BELOW 600 MB ON MOST GUIDANCE. SUBSIDENCE BRINGING
THIS FEATURE DOWNWARD COMBINED WITH 55-70 KTS OF AVAILABLE
MOMENTUM WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH IN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OHIO. HOWEVER...FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH AN EAST ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND THE REMAINDER OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...A WEAKER FIELD OF MOMENTUM AND LESS POTENT
MECHANISM FOR DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER SEEM LIKELY TO ALLOW FOR
OUR GUSTS TO TOP OUT AROUND 50 MPH. THIS PUTS US JUST A BIT SHY OF
THE CRITERIA FOR A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH JIVES VERY WELL WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AS SUCH...WIND ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR
ALL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IF ANYWHERE IS TO OVERACHIEVE AN
ADVISORY...IT WILL LIKELY BE OUR WESTERNMOST OHIO COUNTIES OR EVEN
MERCER COUNTY AS THE HIGHEST AVAILABLE MOMENTUM VALUES ARE IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS DURING MID-AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL LIKELY TAKE A WHILE TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF THIS EVENING
WITH SOME LESSER GUSTS CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE BIGGER STORY WILL LIKELY BE THE THERMAL ROLLER
COASTER. WITH EXTREMELY STRONG MIXING AND SUBSIDENCE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF +8 TO
+10C WITH A FULLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...SOME 70S WILL CERTAINLY
BE POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH...PARTICULARLY WITH A FEW
SUN BREAKS. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT RIPS THROUGH IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
DROP 850 MB TEMPERATURES INTO THE -4 TO -8C RANGE BY THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THIS WILL LIKELY DROP SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND 35
DEGREES FROM TODAY`S HIGHS TO TONIGHT`S LOWS AND RETURN US TO OUR
RECENT COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AFTER A VERY WARM MONDAY.
FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUES MORNING FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SW...BUT A STOUT INVERSION
PROGGED AT H85 WILL HOLD LLVL MOISTURE IN THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS HOLDING STEADY THROUGH THE DAY. H85 TEMPS IN
THE -4C TO -6C RANGE STEEPENS LAPSE RATES IN THE BL ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. KEEPING POPS MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-80 DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

BRIEF RESPITE FROM DISTURBED WEATHER TUES EVENING...BUT THE NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES WEDS MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO DISRUPT HOLIDAY
TRAVEL...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE HEADED EAST. A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WILL
TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDS WITH THE WRN EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE ERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. EXACT PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION DEPEND ON THE INTERACTION WITH A CLIPPER-TYPE
SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS. ATTM MODEL SOLNS STILL VARY
GREATLY WITH THE NAM BRINGING THE PLAINS SHORTWAVE IN
QUICKER...ULTIMATELY PUSHING THE COASTAL LOW EAST OF THE
AREA....HOLDING ALL PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT OUT OF OUR
RIDGES. THE 00Z ECMWF IS ON THE OPPOSITE END OF THE SPECTRUM
ALLOWING THE LOW TO TRACK FURTHER WEST WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING
WEST TO AT LEAST THE OHIO BORDER. WITH THIS MUCH SPREAD...DECIDED TO
HOLD ONTO THE SREF AS GUIDANCE...WHICH IS A DECENT COMPROMISE. POPS
WERE EXPANDED WESTWARD...HOWEVER...TO SHOW AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION GETTING WEST OF THE RIDGES.

COMPLICATING MATTERS FOR THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPS HOVERING
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING FOR LOCATIONS RECEIVING PRECIPITATION.
ATTM...OPTED FOR A MAV/MOS BLEND FOR HIGHS WEDS...AND APPLIED A
LIBERAL RAIN/SNOW DELINEATION...GIVEN THE FAIRLY COLD AIR ALOFT AND
A RELATIVELY SHALLOW WARM LAYER NEAR THE SFC. ALL TOLD...THROUGH
EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING...BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE
CLIPPER...HAVE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE RIDGES AND LITTLE TO
NO SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WEST. FOR
REFERENCE...THE GFS...WHICH HOLDS A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE 00Z ECMWF
MODEL MENTIONED ABOVE...GENERATES AROUND 6" IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS THROUGH WEDS NIGHT.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING MID-WEEK SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS THANKSGIVING NIGHT...ENHANCED JUST
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF OUR SE RIDGES.
THESE SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF EARLY FRI...HOWEVER...AS
SUBSIDENCE OCCURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL EFFECTIVELY LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND CHOKE OUT THE REMAINING
BL MOISTURE BY LATE FRI MORNING.

FROM THAT POINT THE EXTENDED PERIOD GETS A LITTLE TRICKY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES GREATLY. PRIMARILY STUCK CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE
BASED HEAVILY ON THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THIS BRIEFLY HOLDS THE SFC
HIGH OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN
UPPER TROF PROPELS A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WILL STREAM ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SUN RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS. RAISED TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WHICH MEANS THAT RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW COME INTO
PLAY...BUT ANY QPF ASSOCIATED LOOKS LIGHT.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ADVANCING
TOWARD ONLY THE MOST NORTHERN TAF SITES AT THIS HOUR. A LARGE
SCALE DRY SLOT FOLLOWS IT WITH WINDS GUSTING AND TURNING A BIT
MORE SOUTHERLY. BEHIND THIS DRY SLOT...STRATUS IS ADVANCING
NORTHEASTWARD AND WILL LIKELY COME OVER MOST SITES IN THE WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW BY
AFTERNOON AS STRATUS SCOURS OUT. WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES. FRIES


OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240947
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
431 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY WINDS TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT AND A RETURN
TO MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FAIRLY STARK DRY SLOT IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
FOLLOWING THE SPRAWLING UPPER LOW THAT IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS HAVE MANAGED TO MIX
DOWN IN THE SUBSIDENCE IN THIS FEATURE VIA A FAIRLY DISCERNIBLE
TROPOPAUSE FOLD OVERNIGHT ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KTS. LUCKILY
ENOUGH...THE BEST SUBSIDENCE AND DEEPEST PV PENETRATION INTO THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE HAS ALREADY CROSSED OUR AREA...SO FOR THE
MOMENT...WIND GUSTS HAVE TEMPORARILY PEAKED WITHOUT INCIDENT
ACROSS THE AREA.

YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS POISED TO TRAVERSE THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES BY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER PV FIELD WILL AGAIN BE CONTORTED BY
THIS FEATURE AS YET ANOTHER INTRUSION OF HIGH PV AIR IS SET TO
DROP THE DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE GREATLY BY AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN OHIO. THIS IS WELL DEPICTED ON MODEL CROSS SECTIONS VIA
A VERY DEEP TROPOPAUSE FOLD THAT IS PULLING THE 1.5 PVU SURFACE
DOWN TOWARD AND BELOW 600 MB ON MOST GUIDANCE. SUBSIDENCE BRINGING
THIS FEATURE DOWNWARD COMBINED WITH 55-70 KTS OF AVAILABLE
MOMENTUM WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH IN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OHIO. HOWEVER...FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH AN EAST ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND THE REMAINDER OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...A WEAKER FIELD OF MOMENTUM AND LESS POTENT
MECHANISM FOR DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER SEEM LIKELY TO ALLOW FOR
OUR GUSTS TO TOP OUT AROUND 50 MPH. THIS PUTS US JUST A BIT SHY OF
THE CRITERIA FOR A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH JIVES VERY WELL WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AS SUCH...WIND ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR
ALL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IF ANYWHERE IS TO OVERACHIEVE AN
ADVISORY...IT WILL LIKELY BE OUR WESTERNMOST OHIO COUNTIES OR EVEN
MERCER COUNTY AS THE HIGHEST AVAILABLE MOMENTUM VALUES ARE IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS DURING MID-AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL LIKELY TAKE A WHILE TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF THIS EVENING
WITH SOME LESSER GUSTS CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE BIGGER STORY WILL LIKELY BE THE THERMAL ROLLER
COASTER. WITH EXTREMELY STRONG MIXING AND SUBSIDENCE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF +8 TO
+10C WITH A FULLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...SOME 70S WILL CERTAINLY
BE POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH...PARTICULARLY WITH A FEW
SUN BREAKS. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT RIPS THROUGH IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
DROP 850 MB TEMPERATURES INTO THE -4 TO -8C RANGE BY THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THIS WILL LIKELY DROP SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND 35
DEGREES FROM TODAY`S HIGHS TO TONIGHT`S LOWS AND RETURN US TO OUR
RECENT COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AFTER A VERY WARM MONDAY.
FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUES MORNING FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SW...BUT A STOUT INVERSION
PROGGED AT H85 WILL HOLD LLVL MOISTURE IN THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS HOLDING STEADY THROUGH THE DAY. H85 TEMPS IN
THE -4C TO -6C RANGE STEEPENS LAPSE RATES IN THE BL ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. KEEPING POPS MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-80 DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

BRIEF RESPITE FROM DISTURBED WEATHER TUES EVENING...BUT THE NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES WEDS MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO DISRUPT HOLIDAY
TRAVEL...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE HEADED EAST. A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WILL
TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDS WITH THE WRN EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE ERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. EXACT PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION DEPEND ON THE INTERACTION WITH A CLIPPER-TYPE
SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS. ATTM MODEL SOLNS STILL VARY
GREATLY WITH THE NAM BRINGING THE PLAINS SHORTWAVE IN
QUICKER...ULTIMATELY PUSHING THE COASTAL LOW EAST OF THE
AREA....HOLDING ALL PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT OUT OF OUR
RIDGES. THE 00Z ECMWF IS ON THE OPPOSITE END OF THE SPECTRUM
ALLOWING THE LOW TO TRACK FURTHER WEST WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING
WEST TO AT LEAST THE OHIO BORDER. WITH THIS MUCH SPREAD...DECIDED TO
HOLD ONTO THE SREF AS GUIDANCE...WHICH IS A DECENT COMPROMISE. POPS
WERE EXPANDED WESTWARD...HOWEVER...TO SHOW AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION GETTING WEST OF THE RIDGES.

COMPLICATING MATTERS FOR THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPS HOVERING
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING FOR LOCATIONS RECEIVING PRECIPITATION.
ATTM...OPTED FOR A MAV/MOS BLEND FOR HIGHS WEDS...AND APPLIED A
LIBERAL RAIN/SNOW DELINEATION...GIVEN THE FAIRLY COLD AIR ALOFT AND
A RELATIVELY SHALLOW WARM LAYER NEAR THE SFC. ALL TOLD...THROUGH
EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING...BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE
CLIPPER...HAVE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE RIDGES AND LITTLE TO
NO SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WEST. FOR
REFERENCE...THE GFS...WHICH HOLDS A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE 00Z ECMWF
MODEL MENTIONED ABOVE...GENERATES AROUND 6" IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS THROUGH WEDS NIGHT.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING MID-WEEK SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS THANKSGIVING NIGHT...ENHANCED JUST
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF OUR SE RIDGES.
THESE SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF EARLY FRI...HOWEVER...AS
SUBSIDENCE OCCURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL EFFECTIVELY LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND CHOKE OUT THE REMAINING
BL MOISTURE BY LATE FRI MORNING.

FROM THAT POINT THE EXTENDED PERIOD GETS A LITTLE TRICKY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES GREATLY. PRIMARILY STUCK CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE
BASED HEAVILY ON THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THIS BRIEFLY HOLDS THE SFC
HIGH OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN
UPPER TROF PROPELS A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WILL STREAM ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SUN RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS. RAISED TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WHICH MEANS THAT RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW COME INTO
PLAY...BUT ANY QPF ASSOCIATED LOOKS LIGHT.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ADVANCING
TOWARD ONLY THE MOST NORTHERN TAF SITES AT THIS HOUR. A LARGE
SCALE DRY SLOT FOLLOWS IT WITH WINDS GUSTING AND TURNING A BIT
MORE SOUTHERLY. BEHIND THIS DRY SLOT...STRATUS IS ADVANCING
NORTHEASTWARD AND WILL LIKELY COME OVER MOST SITES IN THE WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW BY
AFTERNOON AS STRATUS SCOURS OUT. WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES. FRIES


OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240947
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
431 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY WINDS TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT AND A RETURN
TO MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FAIRLY STARK DRY SLOT IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
FOLLOWING THE SPRAWLING UPPER LOW THAT IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS HAVE MANAGED TO MIX
DOWN IN THE SUBSIDENCE IN THIS FEATURE VIA A FAIRLY DISCERNIBLE
TROPOPAUSE FOLD OVERNIGHT ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KTS. LUCKILY
ENOUGH...THE BEST SUBSIDENCE AND DEEPEST PV PENETRATION INTO THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE HAS ALREADY CROSSED OUR AREA...SO FOR THE
MOMENT...WIND GUSTS HAVE TEMPORARILY PEAKED WITHOUT INCIDENT
ACROSS THE AREA.

YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS POISED TO TRAVERSE THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES BY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER PV FIELD WILL AGAIN BE CONTORTED BY
THIS FEATURE AS YET ANOTHER INTRUSION OF HIGH PV AIR IS SET TO
DROP THE DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE GREATLY BY AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN OHIO. THIS IS WELL DEPICTED ON MODEL CROSS SECTIONS VIA
A VERY DEEP TROPOPAUSE FOLD THAT IS PULLING THE 1.5 PVU SURFACE
DOWN TOWARD AND BELOW 600 MB ON MOST GUIDANCE. SUBSIDENCE BRINGING
THIS FEATURE DOWNWARD COMBINED WITH 55-70 KTS OF AVAILABLE
MOMENTUM WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH IN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OHIO. HOWEVER...FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH AN EAST ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND THE REMAINDER OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...A WEAKER FIELD OF MOMENTUM AND LESS POTENT
MECHANISM FOR DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER SEEM LIKELY TO ALLOW FOR
OUR GUSTS TO TOP OUT AROUND 50 MPH. THIS PUTS US JUST A BIT SHY OF
THE CRITERIA FOR A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH JIVES VERY WELL WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AS SUCH...WIND ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR
ALL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IF ANYWHERE IS TO OVERACHIEVE AN
ADVISORY...IT WILL LIKELY BE OUR WESTERNMOST OHIO COUNTIES OR EVEN
MERCER COUNTY AS THE HIGHEST AVAILABLE MOMENTUM VALUES ARE IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS DURING MID-AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL LIKELY TAKE A WHILE TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF THIS EVENING
WITH SOME LESSER GUSTS CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE BIGGER STORY WILL LIKELY BE THE THERMAL ROLLER
COASTER. WITH EXTREMELY STRONG MIXING AND SUBSIDENCE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF +8 TO
+10C WITH A FULLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...SOME 70S WILL CERTAINLY
BE POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH...PARTICULARLY WITH A FEW
SUN BREAKS. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT RIPS THROUGH IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
DROP 850 MB TEMPERATURES INTO THE -4 TO -8C RANGE BY THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THIS WILL LIKELY DROP SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND 35
DEGREES FROM TODAY`S HIGHS TO TONIGHT`S LOWS AND RETURN US TO OUR
RECENT COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AFTER A VERY WARM MONDAY.
FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUES MORNING FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SW...BUT A STOUT INVERSION
PROGGED AT H85 WILL HOLD LLVL MOISTURE IN THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS HOLDING STEADY THROUGH THE DAY. H85 TEMPS IN
THE -4C TO -6C RANGE STEEPENS LAPSE RATES IN THE BL ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. KEEPING POPS MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-80 DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

BRIEF RESPITE FROM DISTURBED WEATHER TUES EVENING...BUT THE NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES WEDS MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO DISRUPT HOLIDAY
TRAVEL...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE HEADED EAST. A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WILL
TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDS WITH THE WRN EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE ERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. EXACT PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION DEPEND ON THE INTERACTION WITH A CLIPPER-TYPE
SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS. ATTM MODEL SOLNS STILL VARY
GREATLY WITH THE NAM BRINGING THE PLAINS SHORTWAVE IN
QUICKER...ULTIMATELY PUSHING THE COASTAL LOW EAST OF THE
AREA....HOLDING ALL PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT OUT OF OUR
RIDGES. THE 00Z ECMWF IS ON THE OPPOSITE END OF THE SPECTRUM
ALLOWING THE LOW TO TRACK FURTHER WEST WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING
WEST TO AT LEAST THE OHIO BORDER. WITH THIS MUCH SPREAD...DECIDED TO
HOLD ONTO THE SREF AS GUIDANCE...WHICH IS A DECENT COMPROMISE. POPS
WERE EXPANDED WESTWARD...HOWEVER...TO SHOW AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION GETTING WEST OF THE RIDGES.

COMPLICATING MATTERS FOR THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPS HOVERING
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING FOR LOCATIONS RECEIVING PRECIPITATION.
ATTM...OPTED FOR A MAV/MOS BLEND FOR HIGHS WEDS...AND APPLIED A
LIBERAL RAIN/SNOW DELINEATION...GIVEN THE FAIRLY COLD AIR ALOFT AND
A RELATIVELY SHALLOW WARM LAYER NEAR THE SFC. ALL TOLD...THROUGH
EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING...BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE
CLIPPER...HAVE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE RIDGES AND LITTLE TO
NO SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WEST. FOR
REFERENCE...THE GFS...WHICH HOLDS A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE 00Z ECMWF
MODEL MENTIONED ABOVE...GENERATES AROUND 6" IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS THROUGH WEDS NIGHT.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING MID-WEEK SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS THANKSGIVING NIGHT...ENHANCED JUST
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF OUR SE RIDGES.
THESE SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF EARLY FRI...HOWEVER...AS
SUBSIDENCE OCCURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL EFFECTIVELY LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND CHOKE OUT THE REMAINING
BL MOISTURE BY LATE FRI MORNING.

FROM THAT POINT THE EXTENDED PERIOD GETS A LITTLE TRICKY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES GREATLY. PRIMARILY STUCK CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE
BASED HEAVILY ON THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THIS BRIEFLY HOLDS THE SFC
HIGH OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN
UPPER TROF PROPELS A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WILL STREAM ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SUN RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS. RAISED TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WHICH MEANS THAT RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW COME INTO
PLAY...BUT ANY QPF ASSOCIATED LOOKS LIGHT.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ADVANCING
TOWARD ONLY THE MOST NORTHERN TAF SITES AT THIS HOUR. A LARGE
SCALE DRY SLOT FOLLOWS IT WITH WINDS GUSTING AND TURNING A BIT
MORE SOUTHERLY. BEHIND THIS DRY SLOT...STRATUS IS ADVANCING
NORTHEASTWARD AND WILL LIKELY COME OVER MOST SITES IN THE WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW BY
AFTERNOON AS STRATUS SCOURS OUT. WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES. FRIES


OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240601
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
101 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
GUSTY WINDS MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH LARGE SCALE STRATIFORM RAINFALL ARE
ADVANCING NORTHWARD AND ACROSS I-80 AT THIS HOUR. A FAIRLY STARK
DRY SLOT IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FOLLOWING IT AND IS ALSO
WELL DEPICTED ON MODEL CROSS SECTIONS VIA A VERY DEEP TROPOPAUSE
FOLD THAT IS PULLING THE 1.5 PVU SURFACE DOWN TOWARD AND BELOW 600
MB ON MOST GUIDANCE. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS TO
INCREASE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE DRY SLOT ADVANCES ACROSS THE
AREA.

AS THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES FURTHER TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE EARLY PART
OF THE DAY ON MONDAY...THE DEEPENING TROPOPAUSE FOLD REMAINS
SPLAYED OUT FROM SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TOWARD NORTHERN OHIO RIGHT INTO
THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRONG MIXING AND VERY
EFFICIENT DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF MOMENTUM IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
CORRIDOR OF THE 50-60 KTS OF AVAILABLE MOMENTUM. GIVEN THAT WE ARE
ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THIS AREA...IT WOULD SEEM THE VERY
STRONGEST GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...HOWEVER
SOUNDINGS INDICATE 45 KTS IS STILL A VERY REASONABLE FORECAST FOR
GUSTING POTENTIAL IN MANY SPOTS. AS SUCH...THE ONGOING WIND
ADVISORY FOR MONDAY STILL LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPR TROFG AND A DEEPENING SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO
THE UPR GT LKS MON. THE LOWS ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS PROGGED FOR A MON
AFTN PASSAGE ACRS OUR RGN. MSTR IS LTD SO MAINTAINED CHC POPS WITH
FROPA. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ARND THE DEEPENING LOW SHOULD
BRING GUSTY SFC WNDS AS MXG BEGINS MON. FCST SOUNDINGS/GUST
TECHNIQUES INDICATE GUSTS TO ARND 50 MPH ARE LIKELY. WL ISSUE A
WIND ADVISORY FM LT MON MRNG INTO ERLY EVE AS WNDS WL LIKELY STAY
GUSTY FOR A FEW HRS AFT FROPA.

COLD ADVCTN KICKS IN AFT FROPA AS BROAD UPR TROFG RMNS ACRS THE GT
LKS AND UPR MIDWEST THRU TUE. STRATOCU IS EXPD...THOUGH SNW SHWR
CHCS WL BE MINIMAL WITH A SW BNDRY LYR FLOW PREVENTING ANY LK
CONNECTIONS OR SGFNT UPSLOPE COMPONENT.

ANOTHER BROAD UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO SET UP BY MID WK...AS A
COASTAL LOW DVLPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC RGN. THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS
TRACK RMNS IN QN...AND THIS WL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE POTENTIAL AMT
AND LOCATION OF SNW THAT THIS SYSTEM BRINGS. THE SREF SOLN LOOKS
VRY REASONABLE ATTM GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC PTN ATTM...WHICH BRINGS SNW
CHCS FM PIT EWD...AND KEEPS THE HEAVIEST PCPN E OF OUR AREA.

TEMPS ARE EXPD TO RCH 10-15 DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS MON...BUT WL DCR
TO ARND 10 DEG BLO AVG BY TUE AND WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LARGE VARIATIONS IN GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG RANGE AND ADJUSTED
FORECAST WITH THE NEW WPC PROGS TEMPERED WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF. AS
STORM SYSTEM MOVES UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS INTO
THANKSGIVING DAY FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ADVANCING
TOWARD ONLY THE MOST NORTHERN TAF SITES AT THIS HOUR. A LARGE
SCALE DRY SLOT FOLLOWS IT WITH WINDS GUSTING AND TURNING A BIT
MORE SOUTHERLY. BEHIND THIS DRY SLOT...STRATUS IS ADVANCING
NORTHEASTWARD AND WILL LIKELY COME OVER MOST SITES IN THE WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW BY
AFTERNOON AS STRATUS SCOURS OUT. WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES. FRIES


OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240601
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
101 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
GUSTY WINDS MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH LARGE SCALE STRATIFORM RAINFALL ARE
ADVANCING NORTHWARD AND ACROSS I-80 AT THIS HOUR. A FAIRLY STARK
DRY SLOT IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FOLLOWING IT AND IS ALSO
WELL DEPICTED ON MODEL CROSS SECTIONS VIA A VERY DEEP TROPOPAUSE
FOLD THAT IS PULLING THE 1.5 PVU SURFACE DOWN TOWARD AND BELOW 600
MB ON MOST GUIDANCE. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS TO
INCREASE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE DRY SLOT ADVANCES ACROSS THE
AREA.

AS THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES FURTHER TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE EARLY PART
OF THE DAY ON MONDAY...THE DEEPENING TROPOPAUSE FOLD REMAINS
SPLAYED OUT FROM SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TOWARD NORTHERN OHIO RIGHT INTO
THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRONG MIXING AND VERY
EFFICIENT DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF MOMENTUM IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
CORRIDOR OF THE 50-60 KTS OF AVAILABLE MOMENTUM. GIVEN THAT WE ARE
ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THIS AREA...IT WOULD SEEM THE VERY
STRONGEST GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...HOWEVER
SOUNDINGS INDICATE 45 KTS IS STILL A VERY REASONABLE FORECAST FOR
GUSTING POTENTIAL IN MANY SPOTS. AS SUCH...THE ONGOING WIND
ADVISORY FOR MONDAY STILL LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPR TROFG AND A DEEPENING SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO
THE UPR GT LKS MON. THE LOWS ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS PROGGED FOR A MON
AFTN PASSAGE ACRS OUR RGN. MSTR IS LTD SO MAINTAINED CHC POPS WITH
FROPA. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ARND THE DEEPENING LOW SHOULD
BRING GUSTY SFC WNDS AS MXG BEGINS MON. FCST SOUNDINGS/GUST
TECHNIQUES INDICATE GUSTS TO ARND 50 MPH ARE LIKELY. WL ISSUE A
WIND ADVISORY FM LT MON MRNG INTO ERLY EVE AS WNDS WL LIKELY STAY
GUSTY FOR A FEW HRS AFT FROPA.

COLD ADVCTN KICKS IN AFT FROPA AS BROAD UPR TROFG RMNS ACRS THE GT
LKS AND UPR MIDWEST THRU TUE. STRATOCU IS EXPD...THOUGH SNW SHWR
CHCS WL BE MINIMAL WITH A SW BNDRY LYR FLOW PREVENTING ANY LK
CONNECTIONS OR SGFNT UPSLOPE COMPONENT.

ANOTHER BROAD UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO SET UP BY MID WK...AS A
COASTAL LOW DVLPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC RGN. THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS
TRACK RMNS IN QN...AND THIS WL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE POTENTIAL AMT
AND LOCATION OF SNW THAT THIS SYSTEM BRINGS. THE SREF SOLN LOOKS
VRY REASONABLE ATTM GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC PTN ATTM...WHICH BRINGS SNW
CHCS FM PIT EWD...AND KEEPS THE HEAVIEST PCPN E OF OUR AREA.

TEMPS ARE EXPD TO RCH 10-15 DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS MON...BUT WL DCR
TO ARND 10 DEG BLO AVG BY TUE AND WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LARGE VARIATIONS IN GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG RANGE AND ADJUSTED
FORECAST WITH THE NEW WPC PROGS TEMPERED WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF. AS
STORM SYSTEM MOVES UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS INTO
THANKSGIVING DAY FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ADVANCING
TOWARD ONLY THE MOST NORTHERN TAF SITES AT THIS HOUR. A LARGE
SCALE DRY SLOT FOLLOWS IT WITH WINDS GUSTING AND TURNING A BIT
MORE SOUTHERLY. BEHIND THIS DRY SLOT...STRATUS IS ADVANCING
NORTHEASTWARD AND WILL LIKELY COME OVER MOST SITES IN THE WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW BY
AFTERNOON AS STRATUS SCOURS OUT. WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES. FRIES


OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240201 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
901 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
GUSTY WINDS MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
900 PM UPDATE... PREVIOUS FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. JUST MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT POPS AND QPF. TEMPS HAVE BEEN
MODIFIED WITH LATEST GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SHRTWV AND SFC WRM FNT WL ADVN ACRS THE
OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN TNGT. AMPLE DEEP MOISTURE...UPR SPPRT...AND
LLVL JET IN PLACE CONT TO ALLOW FOR CAT POPS FOR RAIN. RAIN IS
EXPD TO END TAPER OFF OR END BEFORE DAWN AS THE SHRTWV AND SFC FNT
EXIT. TEMPS SHOULD INITIALLY DROP AT PCPN ONSET...THEN BEGIN TO
RISE LT TNGT IN WRM ADVCTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPR TROFG AND A DEEPENING SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO
THE UPR GT LKS MON. THE LOWS ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS PROGGED FOR A MON
AFTN PASSAGE ACRS OUR RGN. MSTR IS LTD SO MAINTAINED CHC POPS WITH
FROPA. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ARND THE DEEPENING LOW SHOULD
BRING GUSTY SFC WNDS AS MXG BEGINS MON. FCST SOUNDINGS/GUST
TECHNIQUES INDICATE GUSTS TO ARND 50 MPH ARE LIKELY. WL ISSUE A
WIND ADVISORY FM LT MON MRNG INTO ERLY EVE AS WNDS WL LIKELY STAY
GUSTY FOR A FEW HRS AFT FROPA.

COLD ADVCTN KICKS IN AFT FROPA AS BROAD UPR TROFG RMNS ACRS THE GT
LKS AND UPR MIDWEST THRU TUE. STRATOCU IS EXPD...THOUGH SNW SHWR
CHCS WL BE MINIMAL WITH A SW BNDRY LYR FLOW PREVENTING ANY LK
CONNECTIONS OR SGFNT UPSLOPE COMPONENT.

ANOTHER BROAD UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO SET UP BY MID WK...AS A
COASTAL LOW DVLPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC RGN. THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS
TRACK RMNS IN QN...AND THIS WL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE POTENTIAL AMT
AND LOCATION OF SNW THAT THIS SYSTEM BRINGS. THE SREF SOLN LOOKS
VRY REASONABLE ATTM GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC PTN ATTM...WHICH BRINGS SNW
CHCS FM PIT EWD...AND KEEPS THE HEAVIEST PCPN E OF OUR AREA.

TEMPS ARE EXPD TO RCH 10-15 DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS MON...BUT WL DCR
TO ARND 10 DEG BLO AVG BY TUE AND WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LARGE VARIATIONS IN GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG RANGE AND ADJUSTED
FORECAST WITH THE NEW WPC PROGS TEMPERED WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF. AS
STORM SYSTEM MOVES UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS INTO
THANKSGIVING DAY FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM FRONT/SHORTWAVE COMBINATION WILL PUSH A LARGE RAIN SHIELD
ACROSS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CIG/VIS WITH DROPS TO IFR
AT TIMES IN THE HEAVIER RAIN. RAIN LIFTS OUT BY DAYBREAK...WITH
MVFR LINGERING INTO MIDMORNING. VFR CIG/VIS FIGURED BY
MIDDAY...BUT THE STORY TOMORROW WILL BE THE WIND. S/SW WINDS WILL
GUST TO BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KNOTS AT LEAST TOMORROW...POSSIBLY
HIGHER. THIS WILL CREATE SOME SIGNFICANT CROSSWINDS ON E/W RUNWAYS.


OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
     048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ001>004-
     012-021>023-041.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240201 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
901 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
GUSTY WINDS MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
900 PM UPDATE... PREVIOUS FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. JUST MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT POPS AND QPF. TEMPS HAVE BEEN
MODIFIED WITH LATEST GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SHRTWV AND SFC WRM FNT WL ADVN ACRS THE
OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN TNGT. AMPLE DEEP MOISTURE...UPR SPPRT...AND
LLVL JET IN PLACE CONT TO ALLOW FOR CAT POPS FOR RAIN. RAIN IS
EXPD TO END TAPER OFF OR END BEFORE DAWN AS THE SHRTWV AND SFC FNT
EXIT. TEMPS SHOULD INITIALLY DROP AT PCPN ONSET...THEN BEGIN TO
RISE LT TNGT IN WRM ADVCTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPR TROFG AND A DEEPENING SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO
THE UPR GT LKS MON. THE LOWS ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS PROGGED FOR A MON
AFTN PASSAGE ACRS OUR RGN. MSTR IS LTD SO MAINTAINED CHC POPS WITH
FROPA. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ARND THE DEEPENING LOW SHOULD
BRING GUSTY SFC WNDS AS MXG BEGINS MON. FCST SOUNDINGS/GUST
TECHNIQUES INDICATE GUSTS TO ARND 50 MPH ARE LIKELY. WL ISSUE A
WIND ADVISORY FM LT MON MRNG INTO ERLY EVE AS WNDS WL LIKELY STAY
GUSTY FOR A FEW HRS AFT FROPA.

COLD ADVCTN KICKS IN AFT FROPA AS BROAD UPR TROFG RMNS ACRS THE GT
LKS AND UPR MIDWEST THRU TUE. STRATOCU IS EXPD...THOUGH SNW SHWR
CHCS WL BE MINIMAL WITH A SW BNDRY LYR FLOW PREVENTING ANY LK
CONNECTIONS OR SGFNT UPSLOPE COMPONENT.

ANOTHER BROAD UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO SET UP BY MID WK...AS A
COASTAL LOW DVLPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC RGN. THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS
TRACK RMNS IN QN...AND THIS WL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE POTENTIAL AMT
AND LOCATION OF SNW THAT THIS SYSTEM BRINGS. THE SREF SOLN LOOKS
VRY REASONABLE ATTM GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC PTN ATTM...WHICH BRINGS SNW
CHCS FM PIT EWD...AND KEEPS THE HEAVIEST PCPN E OF OUR AREA.

TEMPS ARE EXPD TO RCH 10-15 DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS MON...BUT WL DCR
TO ARND 10 DEG BLO AVG BY TUE AND WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LARGE VARIATIONS IN GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG RANGE AND ADJUSTED
FORECAST WITH THE NEW WPC PROGS TEMPERED WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF. AS
STORM SYSTEM MOVES UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS INTO
THANKSGIVING DAY FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM FRONT/SHORTWAVE COMBINATION WILL PUSH A LARGE RAIN SHIELD
ACROSS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CIG/VIS WITH DROPS TO IFR
AT TIMES IN THE HEAVIER RAIN. RAIN LIFTS OUT BY DAYBREAK...WITH
MVFR LINGERING INTO MIDMORNING. VFR CIG/VIS FIGURED BY
MIDDAY...BUT THE STORY TOMORROW WILL BE THE WIND. S/SW WINDS WILL
GUST TO BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KNOTS AT LEAST TOMORROW...POSSIBLY
HIGHER. THIS WILL CREATE SOME SIGNFICANT CROSSWINDS ON E/W RUNWAYS.


OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
     048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ001>004-
     012-021>023-041.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 232338
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
638 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
GUSTY WINDS MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
610 PM UPDATE...
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. SPED UP
POPS JUST A BIT AS LEADING EDGE OF RAIN HAS CROSSED SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF FA. TEMPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO LATEST GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SHRTWV AND SFC WRM FNT WL ADVN ACRS THE
OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN TNGT. AMPLE DEEP MOISTURE...UPR SPPRT...AND
LLVL JET IN PLACE CONT TO ALLOW FOR CAT POPS FOR RAIN. RAIN IS
EXPD TO END TAPER OFF OR END BEFORE DAWN AS THE SHRTWV AND SFC FNT
EXIT. TEMPS SHOULD INITIALLY DROP AT PCPN ONSET...THEN BEGIN TO
RISE LT TNGT IN WRM ADVCTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPR TROFG AND A DEEPENING SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO
THE UPR GT LKS MON. THE LOWS ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS PROGGED FOR A MON
AFTN PASSAGE ACRS OUR RGN. MSTR IS LTD SO MAINTAINED CHC POPS WITH
FROPA. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ARND THE DEEPENING LOW SHOULD
BRING GUSTY SFC WNDS AS MXG BEGINS MON. FCST SOUNDINGS/GUST
TECHNIQUES INDICATE GUSTS TO ARND 50 MPH ARE LIKELY. WL ISSUE A
WIND ADVISORY FM LT MON MRNG INTO ERLY EVE AS WNDS WL LIKELY STAY
GUSTY FOR A FEW HRS AFT FROPA.

COLD ADVCTN KICKS IN AFT FROPA AS BROAD UPR TROFG RMNS ACRS THE GT
LKS AND UPR MIDWEST THRU TUE. STRATOCU IS EXPD...THOUGH SNW SHWR
CHCS WL BE MINIMAL WITH A SW BNDRY LYR FLOW PREVENTING ANY LK
CONNECTIONS OR SGFNT UPSLOPE COMPONENT.

ANOTHER BROAD UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO SET UP BY MID WK...AS A
COASTAL LOW DVLPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC RGN. THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS
TRACK RMNS IN QN...AND THIS WL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE POTENTIAL AMT
AND LOCATION OF SNW THAT THIS SYSTEM BRINGS. THE SREF SOLN LOOKS
VRY REASONABLE ATTM GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC PTN ATTM...WHICH BRINGS SNW
CHCS FM PIT EWD...AND KEEPS THE HEAVIEST PCPN E OF OUR AREA.

TEMPS ARE EXPD TO RCH 10-15 DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS MON...BUT WL DCR
TO ARND 10 DEG BLO AVG BY TUE AND WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LARGE VARIATIONS IN GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG RANGE AND ADJUSTED
FORECAST WITH THE NEW WPC PROGS TEMPERED WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF. AS
STORM SYSTEM MOVES UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS INTO
THANKSGIVING DAY FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM FRONT/SHORTWAVE COMBINATION WILL PUSH A LARGE RAIN SHIELD
ACROSS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CIG/VIS WITH DROPS TO IFR
AT TIMES IN THE HEAVIER RAIN. RAIN LIFTS OUT BY DAYBREAK...WITH
MVFR LINGERING INTO MIDMORNING. VFR CIG/VIS FIGURED BY
MIDDAY...BUT THE STORY TOMORROW WILL BE THE WIND. S/SW WINDS WILL
GUST TO BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KNOTS AT LEAST TOMORROW...POSSIBLY
HIGHER. THIS WILL CREATE SOME SIGNFICANT CROSSWINDS ON E/W RUNWAYS.


OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
     048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ001>004-
     012-021>023-041.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 232311 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
611 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
GUSTY WINDS MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
610 PM UPDATE...
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. SPED UP
POPS JUST A BIT AS LEADING EDGE OF RAIN HAS CROSSED SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF FA. TEMPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO LATEST GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SHRTWV AND SFC WRM FNT WL ADVN ACRS THE
OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN TNGT. AMPLE DEEP MOISTURE...UPR SPPRT...AND
LLVL JET IN PLACE CONT TO ALLOW FOR CAT POPS FOR RAIN. RAIN IS
EXPD TO END TAPER OFF OR END BEFORE DAWN AS THE SHRTWV AND SFC FNT
EXIT. TEMPS SHOULD INITIALLY DROP AT PCPN ONSET...THEN BEGIN TO
RISE LT TNGT IN WRM ADVCTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPR TROFG AND A DEEPENING SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO
THE UPR GT LKS MON. THE LOWS ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS PROGGED FOR A MON
AFTN PASSAGE ACRS OUR RGN. MSTR IS LTD SO MAINTAINED CHC POPS WITH
FROPA. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ARND THE DEEPENING LOW SHOULD
BRING GUSTY SFC WNDS AS MXG BEGINS MON. FCST SOUNDINGS/GUST
TECHNIQUES INDICATE GUSTS TO ARND 50 MPH ARE LIKELY. WL ISSUE A
WIND ADVISORY FM LT MON MRNG INTO ERLY EVE AS WNDS WL LIKELY STAY
GUSTY FOR A FEW HRS AFT FROPA.

COLD ADVCTN KICKS IN AFT FROPA AS BROAD UPR TROFG RMNS ACRS THE GT
LKS AND UPR MIDWEST THRU TUE. STRATOCU IS EXPD...THOUGH SNW SHWR
CHCS WL BE MINIMAL WITH A SW BNDRY LYR FLOW PREVENTING ANY LK
CONNECTIONS OR SGFNT UPSLOPE COMPONENT.

ANOTHER BROAD UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO SET UP BY MID WK...AS A
COASTAL LOW DVLPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC RGN. THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS
TRACK RMNS IN QN...AND THIS WL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE POTENTIAL AMT
AND LOCATION OF SNW THAT THIS SYSTEM BRINGS. THE SREF SOLN LOOKS
VRY REASONABLE ATTM GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC PTN ATTM...WHICH BRINGS SNW
CHCS FM PIT EWD...AND KEEPS THE HEAVIEST PCPN E OF OUR AREA.

TEMPS ARE EXPD TO RCH 10-15 DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS MON...BUT WL DCR
TO ARND 10 DEG BLO AVG BY TUE AND WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LARGE VARIATIONS IN GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG RANGE AND ADJUSTED
FORECAST WITH THE NEW WPC PROGS TEMPERED WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF. AS
STORM SYSTEM MOVES UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS INTO
THANKSGIVING DAY FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL AFTER 00Z WHEN WARM FRONT AND SHORTWAVE WILL
QUICKLY MOVE NORTH AHEAD OF GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE. WIDESPREAD
MVFR VSBY AND CIGS OVERNIGHT TO DAYBREAK. FOR MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE CRANKS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
WITH GUSTS TO 35KTS EXPECTED MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
     048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ001>004-
     012-021>023-041.

&&

$$








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