Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020816 CCA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
414 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME WITH A FRIDAY COLD FRONT. MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AMPLE LLVL MOISTURE WL CONT TO ALLOW FOR WDSPRD DENSE FG ERLY
THIS MRNG. WITH VSBYS LWRG...ISSUED A DENSE FG ADVY THRU 9AM. THE
FG SHOULD DSPT BY MID MRNG AS FG DEPTH IS NOT AS GREAT AS YDA.
OTRW...EXP RIDGING AND WRM ADVCTN TDA WITH DRY WEA. CI FM WKNG
TSTMS OVR IL SHOULD WORK INTO THE AREA LTR TDA...THOUGH THIS
SHOULD BE THINNING AND DCRG AS THE CLDS RUN INTO DRIER AIR. TEMPS
SHOULD BE SVRL DEG ABV SEASONAL AVGS TDA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGING WL GRDLY SHIFT EWD TNGT WITH CONTD WRM ADVCTN. A CDFNT WL
ADVN E ACRS THE RGN LT FRI AND FRI EVE...THOUGH INITIAL SHWR
ACTIVITY WL LIKELY DVLP ALG A PRE FRONTAL TROF EARLIER IN THE DAY.
GFS/ECMWF PROGS SHOW LMTD INSTBY...THOUGH WITH WNDS ALOFT AND
SHEAR INCRG FRI WL MAINTAIN A CHC OF TSTMS IN THE FCST.

AFT FROPA...AN UPR LOW IS PROGGED TO SET UP ACRS ONTARIO...WITH A
SERIES OF SHRTWVS ROTATING ARND THE LOW INTO THE GT LKS RGN. THIS
WL KEEP SOME CHC FOR SHWRS MAINLY N OF PIT...THOUGH DID MAINTAIN
SOME UNMENTIONABLE SLGT CHC POPS FURTHER S.

ABV AVG TEMPS ON FRI WL BE REPLACED WITH TEMPS WELL BLO SEASONAL
LVLS BY THE WKEND AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO ARND ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL WOBBLE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH COO TEMPERATURES. A SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWER CHANCES LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES. BY MIDWEEK UPPER
TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH WITH ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONDITION DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH FOG AND STRATUS
UNDER A STRENGTHENING INVERSION. IFR FOR ALL SITES WITH LIFR AT
TIMES. IMPROVEMENT AFTER DAYBREAK IS EXPECTED WITH MIXING FOR VFR
THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE NEXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WILL COME WITH A FRIDAY
COLD FRONT. RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ001.
OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ039>041-
     048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ001>004-
     012-021>023-041.

&&

$$

07/10








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020816 CCA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
414 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME WITH A FRIDAY COLD FRONT. MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AMPLE LLVL MOISTURE WL CONT TO ALLOW FOR WDSPRD DENSE FG ERLY
THIS MRNG. WITH VSBYS LWRG...ISSUED A DENSE FG ADVY THRU 9AM. THE
FG SHOULD DSPT BY MID MRNG AS FG DEPTH IS NOT AS GREAT AS YDA.
OTRW...EXP RIDGING AND WRM ADVCTN TDA WITH DRY WEA. CI FM WKNG
TSTMS OVR IL SHOULD WORK INTO THE AREA LTR TDA...THOUGH THIS
SHOULD BE THINNING AND DCRG AS THE CLDS RUN INTO DRIER AIR. TEMPS
SHOULD BE SVRL DEG ABV SEASONAL AVGS TDA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGING WL GRDLY SHIFT EWD TNGT WITH CONTD WRM ADVCTN. A CDFNT WL
ADVN E ACRS THE RGN LT FRI AND FRI EVE...THOUGH INITIAL SHWR
ACTIVITY WL LIKELY DVLP ALG A PRE FRONTAL TROF EARLIER IN THE DAY.
GFS/ECMWF PROGS SHOW LMTD INSTBY...THOUGH WITH WNDS ALOFT AND
SHEAR INCRG FRI WL MAINTAIN A CHC OF TSTMS IN THE FCST.

AFT FROPA...AN UPR LOW IS PROGGED TO SET UP ACRS ONTARIO...WITH A
SERIES OF SHRTWVS ROTATING ARND THE LOW INTO THE GT LKS RGN. THIS
WL KEEP SOME CHC FOR SHWRS MAINLY N OF PIT...THOUGH DID MAINTAIN
SOME UNMENTIONABLE SLGT CHC POPS FURTHER S.

ABV AVG TEMPS ON FRI WL BE REPLACED WITH TEMPS WELL BLO SEASONAL
LVLS BY THE WKEND AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO ARND ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL WOBBLE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH COO TEMPERATURES. A SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWER CHANCES LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES. BY MIDWEEK UPPER
TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH WITH ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONDITION DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH FOG AND STRATUS
UNDER A STRENGTHENING INVERSION. IFR FOR ALL SITES WITH LIFR AT
TIMES. IMPROVEMENT AFTER DAYBREAK IS EXPECTED WITH MIXING FOR VFR
THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE NEXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WILL COME WITH A FRIDAY
COLD FRONT. RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ001.
OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ039>041-
     048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ001>004-
     012-021>023-041.

&&

$$

07/10









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020749
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
349 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME WITH A FRIDAY COLD FRONT. MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AMPLE LLVL MOISTURE WL CONT TO ALLOW FOR WDSPRD DENSE FG ERLY
THIS MRNG. WITH VSBYS LWRG...ISSUED A DENSE FG ADVY THRU 9AM. THE
FG SHOULD DSPT BY MID MRNG AS FG DEPTH IS NOT AS GREAT AS YDA. WL
ISSUE AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT LOW VSBYS. OTRW...EXP RIDGING AND WRM
ADVCTN TDA WITH DRY WEA. CI FM WKNG TSTMS OVR IL SHOULD WORK INTO
THE AREA LTR TDA...THOUGH THESE SHOULD BE THINNING AND DCRG AS
THEY RUN INTO DRIER AIR. TEMPS SHOULD BE SVRL DEG ABV SEASONAL
AVGS TDA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGING WL GRDLY SHIFT EWD TNGT WITH CONTD WRM ADVCTN. A CDFNT WL
ADVN E ACRS THE RGN LT FRI AND FRI EVE...THOUGH INITIAL SHWR
ACTIVITY WL LIKELY DVLP ALG A PRE FRONTAL TROF EARLIER IN THE DAY.
GFS/ECMWF PROGS SHOW LMTD INSTBY...THOUGH WITH WNDS ALOFT AND
SHEAR INCRG FRI WL MAINTAIN A CHC OF TSTMS IN THE FCST.

AFT FROPA...AN UPR LOW IS PROGGED TO SET UP ACRS ONTARIO...WITH A
SERIES OF SHRTWVS ROTATING ARND THE LOW INTO THE GT LKS RGN. THIS
WL KEEP SOME CHC FOR SHWRS MAINLY N OF PIT...THOUGH DID MAINTAIN
SOME UNMENTIONABLE SLGT CHC POPS FURTHER S.

ABV AVG TEMPS ON FRI WL BE REPLACED WITH TEMPS WELL BLO SEASONAL
LVLS BY THE WKEND AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO ARND ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL WOBBLE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH COO TEMPERATURES. A SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWER CHANCES LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES. BY MIDWEEK UPPER
TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH WITH ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONDITION DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH FOG AND STRATUS
UNDER A STRENGTHENING INVERSION. IFR FOR ALL SITES WITH LIFR AT
TIMES. IMPROVEMENT AFTER DAYBREAK IS EXPECTED WITH MIXING FOR VFR
THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE NEXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WILL COME WITH A FRIDAY
COLD FRONT. RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ001.
OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ039>041-
     048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ001>004-
     012-021>023-041.

&&

$$

07/10






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020749
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
349 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME WITH A FRIDAY COLD FRONT. MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AMPLE LLVL MOISTURE WL CONT TO ALLOW FOR WDSPRD DENSE FG ERLY
THIS MRNG. WITH VSBYS LWRG...ISSUED A DENSE FG ADVY THRU 9AM. THE
FG SHOULD DSPT BY MID MRNG AS FG DEPTH IS NOT AS GREAT AS YDA. WL
ISSUE AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT LOW VSBYS. OTRW...EXP RIDGING AND WRM
ADVCTN TDA WITH DRY WEA. CI FM WKNG TSTMS OVR IL SHOULD WORK INTO
THE AREA LTR TDA...THOUGH THESE SHOULD BE THINNING AND DCRG AS
THEY RUN INTO DRIER AIR. TEMPS SHOULD BE SVRL DEG ABV SEASONAL
AVGS TDA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGING WL GRDLY SHIFT EWD TNGT WITH CONTD WRM ADVCTN. A CDFNT WL
ADVN E ACRS THE RGN LT FRI AND FRI EVE...THOUGH INITIAL SHWR
ACTIVITY WL LIKELY DVLP ALG A PRE FRONTAL TROF EARLIER IN THE DAY.
GFS/ECMWF PROGS SHOW LMTD INSTBY...THOUGH WITH WNDS ALOFT AND
SHEAR INCRG FRI WL MAINTAIN A CHC OF TSTMS IN THE FCST.

AFT FROPA...AN UPR LOW IS PROGGED TO SET UP ACRS ONTARIO...WITH A
SERIES OF SHRTWVS ROTATING ARND THE LOW INTO THE GT LKS RGN. THIS
WL KEEP SOME CHC FOR SHWRS MAINLY N OF PIT...THOUGH DID MAINTAIN
SOME UNMENTIONABLE SLGT CHC POPS FURTHER S.

ABV AVG TEMPS ON FRI WL BE REPLACED WITH TEMPS WELL BLO SEASONAL
LVLS BY THE WKEND AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO ARND ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL WOBBLE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH COO TEMPERATURES. A SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWER CHANCES LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES. BY MIDWEEK UPPER
TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH WITH ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONDITION DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH FOG AND STRATUS
UNDER A STRENGTHENING INVERSION. IFR FOR ALL SITES WITH LIFR AT
TIMES. IMPROVEMENT AFTER DAYBREAK IS EXPECTED WITH MIXING FOR VFR
THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE NEXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WILL COME WITH A FRIDAY
COLD FRONT. RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ001.
OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ039>041-
     048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ001>004-
     012-021>023-041.

&&

$$

07/10







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020616
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
216 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME WITH A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FOG AND ST WL CONT TO DVLP AS THE NGT PROGRESSES WITH AMPLE LLVL
MOISTURE IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY WITH EWD DVLPG WARM FRONT/WARM ADVCTN
ALOFT ENHANCING THE INVERSION.

A QUICKER MIX OUT IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY MRNG GIVEN THE IMPROVING
SLY FLOW IN THE BNDRY LYR AND INCRSD SBSDNC UNDR SHRTWV RIDGING.
THE INSOLATION AND MIXING SHOULD DRIVE TEMPS WELL INTO THE
70S...ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS REGION WIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
H5 RIDGE AXIS IS PERCHED ATOP THE REGION FOR ONE LAST PERIOD BEFORE
WE ARE PUT BACK INTO REALITY WITH COOLER...MORE SEASONAL WEATHER.
DESPITE SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE...THEY DO NOT OCCUR LONG
ENOUGH NOR ARE THEY DEEP ENOUGH TO PROMOTE STATUS / DRIZZLE FOR
LOCATIONS THAT ARE SUSCEPTIBLE /JEFFERSON CO PA S INTO EASTERN
GARRETT/.

OVERALL TREND OF SLOWING PRECIP ONSET CONTINUES TO BE THE COURSE OF
ACTION.  LATEST 12Z NCEP SUITE PORTRAYS THE THEME OF QPF REACHING
WESTERN FRINGES OF CWA BY 15Z FRIDAY.  CAT POPS ARE STILL GOOD FOR
THIS SYSTEM AS ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF RAIN.
WET WEATHER WILL BE PREDOMINATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
JUST AHEAD OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.  DECENT WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH H8 WINDS OF 60KTS AND H5 NEAR 100KTS...SO
GUSTY SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.  THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELD AND MIXING HEIGHTS FRIDAY
NIGHT MAY YIELDS GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35 KNOTS.  THERMODYNAMIC
PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL WITH DYNAMIC FORCING THE LARGE CONTRIBUTOR
TO ANY THUNDERSTORM INITIATION.  A CHANCE OF THUNDER REMAINS
FORECAST.

MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS IN STORE THIS WEEKEND AS H8 TEMPS PLUMMET
FROM 14C TO 0C.  DAYTIME HIGHS SATURDAY WILL FEEL MORE LIKE LATE OCT
AS THEY TOP OUT ONLY IN THE 50S.  THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF SUNSHINE
AS THE DRY CONVEYOR BELT PASSES...BUT CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY FILL IN
DUE TO DESTRUCTIVE SUNSHINE.  SUBSTANTIAL COOLING ALOFT WITH VERY
UNSTABLE LOW AND MID LEVELS DENOTED BY LAPSE RATES PUSHING 9CKM-1
SATURDAY WILL GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS.  CYCLONE TRACK KEEPS WINDS
WSW SAT NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.  EVEN IF TEMPS WERE TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 30S...AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER AND PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE WOULD OFFSET FROST
DEVELOPMENT.

WINDS WILL STAY MIXED ALLOWING FOR A MILD NIGHT THUR SO SIDED WITH
THE WARMER NAM12 GRIDS...THEN TOOK A BLEND OF THE FORECAST AND BIAS
CORRECTED MOSGUIDE GRIDS FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL WOBBLE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH COO TEMPERATURES. A SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWER CHANCES LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES. BY MIDWEEK UPPER
TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH WITH ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONDITION DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH FOG AND STRATUS
UNDER A STRENGTHENING INVERSION. IFR FOR ALL SITES WITH LIFR AT
TIMES. IMPROVEMENT AFTER DAYBREAK IS EXPECTED WITH MIXING FOR VFR
THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE NEXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WILL COME WITH A FRIDAY
COLD FRONT. RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020616
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
216 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME WITH A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FOG AND ST WL CONT TO DVLP AS THE NGT PROGRESSES WITH AMPLE LLVL
MOISTURE IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY WITH EWD DVLPG WARM FRONT/WARM ADVCTN
ALOFT ENHANCING THE INVERSION.

A QUICKER MIX OUT IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY MRNG GIVEN THE IMPROVING
SLY FLOW IN THE BNDRY LYR AND INCRSD SBSDNC UNDR SHRTWV RIDGING.
THE INSOLATION AND MIXING SHOULD DRIVE TEMPS WELL INTO THE
70S...ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS REGION WIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
H5 RIDGE AXIS IS PERCHED ATOP THE REGION FOR ONE LAST PERIOD BEFORE
WE ARE PUT BACK INTO REALITY WITH COOLER...MORE SEASONAL WEATHER.
DESPITE SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE...THEY DO NOT OCCUR LONG
ENOUGH NOR ARE THEY DEEP ENOUGH TO PROMOTE STATUS / DRIZZLE FOR
LOCATIONS THAT ARE SUSCEPTIBLE /JEFFERSON CO PA S INTO EASTERN
GARRETT/.

OVERALL TREND OF SLOWING PRECIP ONSET CONTINUES TO BE THE COURSE OF
ACTION.  LATEST 12Z NCEP SUITE PORTRAYS THE THEME OF QPF REACHING
WESTERN FRINGES OF CWA BY 15Z FRIDAY.  CAT POPS ARE STILL GOOD FOR
THIS SYSTEM AS ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF RAIN.
WET WEATHER WILL BE PREDOMINATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
JUST AHEAD OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.  DECENT WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH H8 WINDS OF 60KTS AND H5 NEAR 100KTS...SO
GUSTY SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.  THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELD AND MIXING HEIGHTS FRIDAY
NIGHT MAY YIELDS GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35 KNOTS.  THERMODYNAMIC
PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL WITH DYNAMIC FORCING THE LARGE CONTRIBUTOR
TO ANY THUNDERSTORM INITIATION.  A CHANCE OF THUNDER REMAINS
FORECAST.

MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS IN STORE THIS WEEKEND AS H8 TEMPS PLUMMET
FROM 14C TO 0C.  DAYTIME HIGHS SATURDAY WILL FEEL MORE LIKE LATE OCT
AS THEY TOP OUT ONLY IN THE 50S.  THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF SUNSHINE
AS THE DRY CONVEYOR BELT PASSES...BUT CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY FILL IN
DUE TO DESTRUCTIVE SUNSHINE.  SUBSTANTIAL COOLING ALOFT WITH VERY
UNSTABLE LOW AND MID LEVELS DENOTED BY LAPSE RATES PUSHING 9CKM-1
SATURDAY WILL GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS.  CYCLONE TRACK KEEPS WINDS
WSW SAT NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.  EVEN IF TEMPS WERE TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 30S...AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER AND PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE WOULD OFFSET FROST
DEVELOPMENT.

WINDS WILL STAY MIXED ALLOWING FOR A MILD NIGHT THUR SO SIDED WITH
THE WARMER NAM12 GRIDS...THEN TOOK A BLEND OF THE FORECAST AND BIAS
CORRECTED MOSGUIDE GRIDS FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL WOBBLE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH COO TEMPERATURES. A SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWER CHANCES LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES. BY MIDWEEK UPPER
TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH WITH ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONDITION DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH FOG AND STRATUS
UNDER A STRENGTHENING INVERSION. IFR FOR ALL SITES WITH LIFR AT
TIMES. IMPROVEMENT AFTER DAYBREAK IS EXPECTED WITH MIXING FOR VFR
THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE NEXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WILL COME WITH A FRIDAY
COLD FRONT. RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$












000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020401
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1201 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME WITH A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FOG AND ST WL CONT TO DVLP AS THE NGT PROGRESSES WITH AMPLE LLVL
MOISTURE IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY WITH EWD DVLPG WARM FRONT/WARM ADVCTN
ALOFT ENHANCING THE INVERSION.

A QUICKER MIX OUT IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY MRNG GIVEN THE IMPROVING
SLY FLOW IN THE BNDRY LYR AND INCRSD SBSDNC UNDR SHRTWV RIDGING.
THE INSOLATION AND MIXING SHOULD DRIVE TEMPS WELL INTO THE
70S...ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS REGION WIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
H5 RIDGE AXIS IS PERCHED ATOP THE REGION FOR ONE LAST PERIOD BEFORE
WE ARE PUT BACK INTO REALITY WITH COOLER...MORE SEASONAL WEATHER.
DESPITE SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE...THEY DO NOT OCCUR LONG
ENOUGH NOR ARE THEY DEEP ENOUGH TO PROMOTE STATUS / DRIZZLE FOR
LOCATIONS THAT ARE SUSCEPTIBLE /JEFFERSON CO PA S INTO EASTERN
GARRETT/.

OVERALL TREND OF SLOWING PRECIP ONSET CONTINUES TO BE THE COURSE OF
ACTION.  LATEST 12Z NCEP SUITE PORTRAYS THE THEME OF QPF REACHING
WESTERN FRINGES OF CWA BY 15Z FRIDAY.  CAT POPS ARE STILL GOOD FOR
THIS SYSTEM AS ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF RAIN.
WET WEATHER WILL BE PREDOMINATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
JUST AHEAD OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.  DECENT WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH H8 WINDS OF 60KTS AND H5 NEAR 100KTS...SO
GUSTY SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.  THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELD AND MIXING HEIGHTS FRIDAY
NIGHT MAY YIELDS GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35 KNOTS.  THERMODYNAMIC
PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL WITH DYNAMIC FORCING THE LARGE CONTRIBUTOR
TO ANY THUNDERSTORM INITIATION.  A CHANCE OF THUNDER REMAINS
FORECAST.

MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS IN STORE THIS WEEKEND AS H8 TEMPS PLUMMET
FROM 14C TO 0C.  DAYTIME HIGHS SATURDAY WILL FEEL MORE LIKE LATE OCT
AS THEY TOP OUT ONLY IN THE 50S.  THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF SUNSHINE
AS THE DRY CONVEYOR BELT PASSES...BUT CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY FILL IN
DUE TO DESTRUCTIVE SUNSHINE.  SUBSTANTIAL COOLING ALOFT WITH VERY
UNSTABLE LOW AND MID LEVELS DENOTED BY LAPSE RATES PUSHING 9CKM-1
SATURDAY WILL GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS.  CYCLONE TRACK KEEPS WINDS
WSW SAT NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.  EVEN IF TEMPS WERE TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 30S...AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER AND PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE WOULD OFFSET FROST
DEVELOPMENT.

WINDS WILL STAY MIXED ALLOWING FOR A MILD NIGHT THUR SO SIDED WITH
THE WARMER NAM12 GRIDS...THEN TOOK A BLEND OF THE FORECAST AND BIAS
CORRECTED MOSGUIDE GRIDS FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL HELP TO KEEP SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 SUNDAY WITH
DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. STRONG CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL
WOBBLE NORTH OF LAKE HURON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SHORTWAVES
RIDING UNDER THE LOW BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS. BY MIDWEEK UPPER
TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH WITH ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES TO START THE
WEEK...MODERATING BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONDITION DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NGT WITH FOG AND
ST DVLPMNT ONCE AGAIN UNDR A STRENGTHENING INVERSION. IFR IS THUS
FORECAST FOR ALL SITES...BUT IMPROVEMENT AFTR DAYBREAK IS EXPECTED
TO BE MORE RAPID THAN TDA GIVEN BTR MIXING AND SBSDNC CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020401
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1201 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME WITH A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FOG AND ST WL CONT TO DVLP AS THE NGT PROGRESSES WITH AMPLE LLVL
MOISTURE IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY WITH EWD DVLPG WARM FRONT/WARM ADVCTN
ALOFT ENHANCING THE INVERSION.

A QUICKER MIX OUT IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY MRNG GIVEN THE IMPROVING
SLY FLOW IN THE BNDRY LYR AND INCRSD SBSDNC UNDR SHRTWV RIDGING.
THE INSOLATION AND MIXING SHOULD DRIVE TEMPS WELL INTO THE
70S...ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS REGION WIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
H5 RIDGE AXIS IS PERCHED ATOP THE REGION FOR ONE LAST PERIOD BEFORE
WE ARE PUT BACK INTO REALITY WITH COOLER...MORE SEASONAL WEATHER.
DESPITE SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE...THEY DO NOT OCCUR LONG
ENOUGH NOR ARE THEY DEEP ENOUGH TO PROMOTE STATUS / DRIZZLE FOR
LOCATIONS THAT ARE SUSCEPTIBLE /JEFFERSON CO PA S INTO EASTERN
GARRETT/.

OVERALL TREND OF SLOWING PRECIP ONSET CONTINUES TO BE THE COURSE OF
ACTION.  LATEST 12Z NCEP SUITE PORTRAYS THE THEME OF QPF REACHING
WESTERN FRINGES OF CWA BY 15Z FRIDAY.  CAT POPS ARE STILL GOOD FOR
THIS SYSTEM AS ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF RAIN.
WET WEATHER WILL BE PREDOMINATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
JUST AHEAD OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.  DECENT WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH H8 WINDS OF 60KTS AND H5 NEAR 100KTS...SO
GUSTY SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.  THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELD AND MIXING HEIGHTS FRIDAY
NIGHT MAY YIELDS GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35 KNOTS.  THERMODYNAMIC
PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL WITH DYNAMIC FORCING THE LARGE CONTRIBUTOR
TO ANY THUNDERSTORM INITIATION.  A CHANCE OF THUNDER REMAINS
FORECAST.

MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS IN STORE THIS WEEKEND AS H8 TEMPS PLUMMET
FROM 14C TO 0C.  DAYTIME HIGHS SATURDAY WILL FEEL MORE LIKE LATE OCT
AS THEY TOP OUT ONLY IN THE 50S.  THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF SUNSHINE
AS THE DRY CONVEYOR BELT PASSES...BUT CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY FILL IN
DUE TO DESTRUCTIVE SUNSHINE.  SUBSTANTIAL COOLING ALOFT WITH VERY
UNSTABLE LOW AND MID LEVELS DENOTED BY LAPSE RATES PUSHING 9CKM-1
SATURDAY WILL GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS.  CYCLONE TRACK KEEPS WINDS
WSW SAT NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.  EVEN IF TEMPS WERE TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 30S...AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER AND PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE WOULD OFFSET FROST
DEVELOPMENT.

WINDS WILL STAY MIXED ALLOWING FOR A MILD NIGHT THUR SO SIDED WITH
THE WARMER NAM12 GRIDS...THEN TOOK A BLEND OF THE FORECAST AND BIAS
CORRECTED MOSGUIDE GRIDS FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL HELP TO KEEP SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 SUNDAY WITH
DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. STRONG CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL
WOBBLE NORTH OF LAKE HURON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SHORTWAVES
RIDING UNDER THE LOW BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS. BY MIDWEEK UPPER
TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH WITH ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES TO START THE
WEEK...MODERATING BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONDITION DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NGT WITH FOG AND
ST DVLPMNT ONCE AGAIN UNDR A STRENGTHENING INVERSION. IFR IS THUS
FORECAST FOR ALL SITES...BUT IMPROVEMENT AFTR DAYBREAK IS EXPECTED
TO BE MORE RAPID THAN TDA GIVEN BTR MIXING AND SBSDNC CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020111
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
911 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME WITH A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE LATE EVE UPDATE OTHER THAN TWEAKS TO
HOURLY TRENDS.

PREVIOUS...
UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST FOR RAPIDLY DIMINISHED CLD COVER AS
MIXING AND SBSDNC HAVE FINALLY DEMOLISHED THE STRATUS LYR WHICH
PLAGUED THE UPR OH REGION TDA.

HOWEVER...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS HAS
OCCURRED AND EXPECT FOG AND ST TO REDVLP AS THE NGT
PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY WITH EWD DVLPG WARM FRONT/WARM ADVCTN
ALOFT ENHANCING THE INVERSION.

A QUICKER MIX OUT IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY MRNG GIVEN THE IMPROVING
SLY FLOW IN THE BNDRY LYR AND INCRSD SBSDNC UNDR SHRTWV RIDGING.
THE INSOLATION AND MIXING SHOULD DRIVE TEMPS WELL INTO THE
70S...ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS REGION WIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
H5 RIDGE AXIS IS PERCHED ATOP THE REGION FOR ONE LAST PERIOD BEFORE
WE ARE PUT BACK INTO REALITY WITH COOLER...MORE SEASONAL WEATHER.
DESPITE SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE...THEY DO NOT OCCUR LONG
ENOUGH NOR ARE THEY DEEP ENOUGH TO PROMOTE STATUS / DRIZZLE FOR
LOCATIONS THAT ARE SUSCEPTIBLE /JEFFERSON CO PA S INTO EASTERN
GARRETT/.

OVERALL TREND OF SLOWING PRECIP ONSET CONTINUES TO BE THE COURSE OF
ACTION.  LATEST 12Z NCEP SUITE PORTRAYS THE THEME OF QPF REACHING
WESTERN FRINGES OF CWA BY 15Z FRIDAY.  CAT POPS ARE STILL GOOD FOR
THIS SYSTEM AS ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF RAIN.
WET WEATHER WILL BE PREDOMINATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
JUST AHEAD OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.  DECENT WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH H8 WINDS OF 60KTS AND H5 NEAR 100KTS...SO
GUSTY SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.  THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELD AND MIXING HEIGHTS FRIDAY
NIGHT MAY YIELDS GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35 KNOTS.  THERMODYNAMIC
PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL WITH DYNAMIC FORCING THE LARGE CONTRIBUTOR
TO ANY THUNDERSTORM INITIATION.  A CHANCE OF THUNDER REMAINS
FORECAST.

MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS IN STORE THIS WEEKEND AS H8 TEMPS PLUMMET
FROM 14C TO 0C.  DAYTIME HIGHS SATURDAY WILL FEEL MORE LIKE LATE OCT
AS THEY TOP OUT ONLY IN THE 50S.  THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF SUNSHINE
AS THE DRY CONVEYOR BELT PASSES...BUT CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY FILL IN
DUE TO DESTRUCTIVE SUNSHINE.  SUBSTANTIAL COOLING ALOFT WITH VERY
UNSTABLE LOW AND MID LEVELS DENOTED BY LAPSE RATES PUSHING 9CKM-1
SATURDAY WILL GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS.  CYCLONE TRACK KEEPS WINDS
WSW SAT NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.  EVEN IF TEMPS WERE TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 30S...AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER AND PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE WOULD OFFSET FROST
DEVELOPMENT.

WINDS WILL STAY MIXED ALLOWING FOR A MILD NIGHT THUR SO SIDED WITH
THE WARMER NAM12 GRIDS...THEN TOOK A BLEND OF THE FORECAST AND BIAS
CORRECTED MOSGUIDE GRIDS FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL HELP TO KEEP SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 SUNDAY WITH
DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. STRONG CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL
WOBBLE NORTH OF LAKE HURON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SHORTWAVES
RIDING UNDER THE LOW BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS. BY MIDWEEK UPPER
TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH WITH ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES TO START THE
WEEK...MODERATING BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONDITION DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NGT WITH FOG AND
ST DVLPMNT ONCE AGAIN UNDR A STRENGTHENING INVERSION. IFR IS THUS
FORECAST FOR ALL SITES...BUT IMPROVEMENT AFTR DAYBREAK IS EXPECTED
TO BE MORE RAPID THAN TDA GIVEN BTR MIXING AND SBSDNC CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020111
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
911 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME WITH A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE LATE EVE UPDATE OTHER THAN TWEAKS TO
HOURLY TRENDS.

PREVIOUS...
UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST FOR RAPIDLY DIMINISHED CLD COVER AS
MIXING AND SBSDNC HAVE FINALLY DEMOLISHED THE STRATUS LYR WHICH
PLAGUED THE UPR OH REGION TDA.

HOWEVER...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS HAS
OCCURRED AND EXPECT FOG AND ST TO REDVLP AS THE NGT
PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY WITH EWD DVLPG WARM FRONT/WARM ADVCTN
ALOFT ENHANCING THE INVERSION.

A QUICKER MIX OUT IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY MRNG GIVEN THE IMPROVING
SLY FLOW IN THE BNDRY LYR AND INCRSD SBSDNC UNDR SHRTWV RIDGING.
THE INSOLATION AND MIXING SHOULD DRIVE TEMPS WELL INTO THE
70S...ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS REGION WIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
H5 RIDGE AXIS IS PERCHED ATOP THE REGION FOR ONE LAST PERIOD BEFORE
WE ARE PUT BACK INTO REALITY WITH COOLER...MORE SEASONAL WEATHER.
DESPITE SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE...THEY DO NOT OCCUR LONG
ENOUGH NOR ARE THEY DEEP ENOUGH TO PROMOTE STATUS / DRIZZLE FOR
LOCATIONS THAT ARE SUSCEPTIBLE /JEFFERSON CO PA S INTO EASTERN
GARRETT/.

OVERALL TREND OF SLOWING PRECIP ONSET CONTINUES TO BE THE COURSE OF
ACTION.  LATEST 12Z NCEP SUITE PORTRAYS THE THEME OF QPF REACHING
WESTERN FRINGES OF CWA BY 15Z FRIDAY.  CAT POPS ARE STILL GOOD FOR
THIS SYSTEM AS ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF RAIN.
WET WEATHER WILL BE PREDOMINATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
JUST AHEAD OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.  DECENT WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH H8 WINDS OF 60KTS AND H5 NEAR 100KTS...SO
GUSTY SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.  THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELD AND MIXING HEIGHTS FRIDAY
NIGHT MAY YIELDS GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35 KNOTS.  THERMODYNAMIC
PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL WITH DYNAMIC FORCING THE LARGE CONTRIBUTOR
TO ANY THUNDERSTORM INITIATION.  A CHANCE OF THUNDER REMAINS
FORECAST.

MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS IN STORE THIS WEEKEND AS H8 TEMPS PLUMMET
FROM 14C TO 0C.  DAYTIME HIGHS SATURDAY WILL FEEL MORE LIKE LATE OCT
AS THEY TOP OUT ONLY IN THE 50S.  THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF SUNSHINE
AS THE DRY CONVEYOR BELT PASSES...BUT CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY FILL IN
DUE TO DESTRUCTIVE SUNSHINE.  SUBSTANTIAL COOLING ALOFT WITH VERY
UNSTABLE LOW AND MID LEVELS DENOTED BY LAPSE RATES PUSHING 9CKM-1
SATURDAY WILL GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS.  CYCLONE TRACK KEEPS WINDS
WSW SAT NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.  EVEN IF TEMPS WERE TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 30S...AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER AND PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE WOULD OFFSET FROST
DEVELOPMENT.

WINDS WILL STAY MIXED ALLOWING FOR A MILD NIGHT THUR SO SIDED WITH
THE WARMER NAM12 GRIDS...THEN TOOK A BLEND OF THE FORECAST AND BIAS
CORRECTED MOSGUIDE GRIDS FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL HELP TO KEEP SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 SUNDAY WITH
DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. STRONG CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL
WOBBLE NORTH OF LAKE HURON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SHORTWAVES
RIDING UNDER THE LOW BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS. BY MIDWEEK UPPER
TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH WITH ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES TO START THE
WEEK...MODERATING BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONDITION DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NGT WITH FOG AND
ST DVLPMNT ONCE AGAIN UNDR A STRENGTHENING INVERSION. IFR IS THUS
FORECAST FOR ALL SITES...BUT IMPROVEMENT AFTR DAYBREAK IS EXPECTED
TO BE MORE RAPID THAN TDA GIVEN BTR MIXING AND SBSDNC CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 012047
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
447 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME WITH A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST FOR RAPIDLY DIMINISHED CLD COVER AS
MIXING AND SBSDNC HAVE FINALLY DEMOLISHED THE STRATUS LYR WHICH
PLAGUED THE UPR OH REGION TDA.

HOWEVER...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS HAS
OCCURRED AND EXPECT FOG AND ST TO REDVLP AS THE NGT
PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY WITH EWD DVLPG WARM FRONT/WARM ADVCTN
ALOFT ENHANCING THE INVERSION.

A QUICKER MIX OUT IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY MRNG GIVEN THE IMPROVING
SLY FLOW IN THE BNDRY LYR AND INCRSD SBSDNC UNDR SHRTWV RIDGING.
THE INSOLATION AND MIXING SHOULD DRIVE TEMPS WELL INTO THE
70S...ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS REGION WIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
H5 RIDGE AXIS IS PERCHED ATOP THE REGION FOR ONE LAST PERIOD BEFORE
WE ARE PUT BACK INTO REALITY WITH COOLER...MORE SEASONAL WEATHER.
DESPITE SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE...THEY DO NOT OCCUR LONG
ENOUGH NOR ARE THEY DEEP ENOUGH TO PROMOTE STATUS / DRIZZLE FOR
LOCATIONS THAT ARE SUSCEPTIBLE /JEFFERSON CO PA S INTO EASTERN
GARRETT/.

OVERALL TREND OF SLOWING PRECIP ONSET CONTINUES TO BE THE COURSE OF
ACTION.  LATEST 12Z NCEP SUITE PORTRAYS THE THEME OF QPF REACHING
WESTERN FRINGES OF CWA BY 15Z FRIDAY.  CAT POPS ARE STILL GOOD FOR
THIS SYSTEM AS ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF RAIN.
WET WEATHER WILL BE PREDOMINATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
JUST AHEAD OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.  DECENT WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH H8 WINDS OF 60KTS AND H5 NEAR 100KTS...SO
GUSTY SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.  THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELD AND MIXING HEIGHTS FRIDAY
NIGHT MAY YIELDS GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35 KNOTS.  THERMODYNAMIC
PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL WITH DYNAMIC FORCING THE LARGE CONTRIBUTOR
TO ANY THUNDERSTORM INITIATION.  A CHANCE OF THUNDER REMAINS
FORECAST.

MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS IN STORE THIS WEEKEND AS H8 TEMPS PLUMMET
FROM 14C TO 0C.  DAYTIME HIGHS SATURDAY WILL FEEL MORE LIKE LATE OCT
AS THEY TOP OUT ONLY IN THE 50S.  THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF SUNSHINE
AS THE DRY CONVEYOR BELT PASSES...BUT CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY FILL IN
DUE TO DESTRUCTIVE SUNSHINE.  SUBSTANTIAL COOLING ALOFT WITH VERY
UNSTABLE LOW AND MID LEVELS DENOTED BY LAPSE RATES PUSHING 9CKM-1
SATURDAY WILL GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS.  CYCLONE TRACK KEEPS WINDS
WSW SAT NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.  EVEN IF TEMPS WERE TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 30S...AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER AND PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE WOULD OFFSET FROST
DEVELOPMENT.

WINDS WILL STAY MIXED ALLOWING FOR A MILD NIGHT THUR SO SIDED WITH
THE WARMER NAM12 GRIDS...THEN TOOK A BLEND OF THE FORECAST AND BIAS
CORRECTED MOSGUIDE GRIDS FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL HELP TO KEEP SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 SUNDAY WITH
DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. STRONG CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL
WOBBLE NORTH OF LAKE HURON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SHORTWAVES
RIDING UNDER THE LOW BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS. BY MIDWEEK UPPER
TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH WITH ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES TO START THE
WEEK...MODERATING BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENL VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVE AS STRATUS LYR FINALLY HAS
ERODED. HOWEVER...CONDITION DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NGT WITH FOG AND ST DVLPMNT ONCE AGAIN UNDR A STRENGTHENING
INVERSION. IFR IS THUS FORECAST FOR ALL SITES...BUT IMPROVEMENT
AFTR DAYBREAK IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE RAPID THAN TDA GIVEN BTR
MIXING AND SBSDNC CONDITIONS.


OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 012047
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
447 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME WITH A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST FOR RAPIDLY DIMINISHED CLD COVER AS
MIXING AND SBSDNC HAVE FINALLY DEMOLISHED THE STRATUS LYR WHICH
PLAGUED THE UPR OH REGION TDA.

HOWEVER...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS HAS
OCCURRED AND EXPECT FOG AND ST TO REDVLP AS THE NGT
PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY WITH EWD DVLPG WARM FRONT/WARM ADVCTN
ALOFT ENHANCING THE INVERSION.

A QUICKER MIX OUT IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY MRNG GIVEN THE IMPROVING
SLY FLOW IN THE BNDRY LYR AND INCRSD SBSDNC UNDR SHRTWV RIDGING.
THE INSOLATION AND MIXING SHOULD DRIVE TEMPS WELL INTO THE
70S...ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS REGION WIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
H5 RIDGE AXIS IS PERCHED ATOP THE REGION FOR ONE LAST PERIOD BEFORE
WE ARE PUT BACK INTO REALITY WITH COOLER...MORE SEASONAL WEATHER.
DESPITE SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE...THEY DO NOT OCCUR LONG
ENOUGH NOR ARE THEY DEEP ENOUGH TO PROMOTE STATUS / DRIZZLE FOR
LOCATIONS THAT ARE SUSCEPTIBLE /JEFFERSON CO PA S INTO EASTERN
GARRETT/.

OVERALL TREND OF SLOWING PRECIP ONSET CONTINUES TO BE THE COURSE OF
ACTION.  LATEST 12Z NCEP SUITE PORTRAYS THE THEME OF QPF REACHING
WESTERN FRINGES OF CWA BY 15Z FRIDAY.  CAT POPS ARE STILL GOOD FOR
THIS SYSTEM AS ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF RAIN.
WET WEATHER WILL BE PREDOMINATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
JUST AHEAD OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.  DECENT WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH H8 WINDS OF 60KTS AND H5 NEAR 100KTS...SO
GUSTY SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.  THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELD AND MIXING HEIGHTS FRIDAY
NIGHT MAY YIELDS GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35 KNOTS.  THERMODYNAMIC
PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL WITH DYNAMIC FORCING THE LARGE CONTRIBUTOR
TO ANY THUNDERSTORM INITIATION.  A CHANCE OF THUNDER REMAINS
FORECAST.

MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS IN STORE THIS WEEKEND AS H8 TEMPS PLUMMET
FROM 14C TO 0C.  DAYTIME HIGHS SATURDAY WILL FEEL MORE LIKE LATE OCT
AS THEY TOP OUT ONLY IN THE 50S.  THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF SUNSHINE
AS THE DRY CONVEYOR BELT PASSES...BUT CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY FILL IN
DUE TO DESTRUCTIVE SUNSHINE.  SUBSTANTIAL COOLING ALOFT WITH VERY
UNSTABLE LOW AND MID LEVELS DENOTED BY LAPSE RATES PUSHING 9CKM-1
SATURDAY WILL GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS.  CYCLONE TRACK KEEPS WINDS
WSW SAT NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.  EVEN IF TEMPS WERE TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 30S...AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER AND PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE WOULD OFFSET FROST
DEVELOPMENT.

WINDS WILL STAY MIXED ALLOWING FOR A MILD NIGHT THUR SO SIDED WITH
THE WARMER NAM12 GRIDS...THEN TOOK A BLEND OF THE FORECAST AND BIAS
CORRECTED MOSGUIDE GRIDS FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL HELP TO KEEP SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 SUNDAY WITH
DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. STRONG CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL
WOBBLE NORTH OF LAKE HURON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SHORTWAVES
RIDING UNDER THE LOW BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS. BY MIDWEEK UPPER
TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH WITH ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES TO START THE
WEEK...MODERATING BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENL VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVE AS STRATUS LYR FINALLY HAS
ERODED. HOWEVER...CONDITION DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NGT WITH FOG AND ST DVLPMNT ONCE AGAIN UNDR A STRENGTHENING
INVERSION. IFR IS THUS FORECAST FOR ALL SITES...BUT IMPROVEMENT
AFTR DAYBREAK IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE RAPID THAN TDA GIVEN BTR
MIXING AND SBSDNC CONDITIONS.


OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011758
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
158 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WEATHER WILL SLOWLY ARRIVE INTO THE REGION UNTIL A COLD
FRONT PASSES FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW CLOUD EROSION HAS CONTINUED TO BE VERY SLOW THIS AFTERNOON
BOTH WITH SOUTHWESTWARD MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE
NORTHEAST TOWARD A WEAK AND FILLING 850 MB LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN
OHIO...AS WELL AS IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE
SOUTHEASTERN FLANK OF SAID LOW. NEITHER OF THESE TWO AREAS OF
INCREASED MIXING HAS YET TO REACH THE METROPOLITAN PITTSBURGH
AREA...THOUGH THERE IS STILL ABUNDANT HOPE THAT THEY WILL DO SO
BEFORE SUNDOWN TODAY. THAT SAID...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES LARGELY IN CHECK ACROSS THE REGION...BUT IT WOULD
SEEM THE MAJORITY OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE
THROUGH SUNSET.

WITH THAT IN MINE...LITTLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS CHANGE IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AND GIVEN THE CONTINUED WEAKENING OF THE 850
MB LOW OVER OHIO AS IT MORPHS INTO A MORE OPEN WAVE AND ADVANCES
NORTHWARD CONCURRENT WITH MID AND UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY...IT WOULD SEEM SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS
AGAIN LIKELY OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AT ALL
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE INCREASING INTO THURSDAY...IT SHOULD
MANAGE TO MIX OUT FAR EARLIER IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY THAN IT HAS
TODAY. WITH THAT IN MIND...TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN RISE WELL
INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
H5 RIDGE AXIS IS PERCHED ATOP THE REGION FOR ONE LAST PERIOD BEFORE
WE ARE PUT BACK INTO REALITY WITH COOLER...MORE SEASONAL WEATHER.
DESPITE SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE...THEY DO NOT OCCUR LONG
ENOUGH NOR ARE THEY DEEP ENOUGH TO PROMOTE STATUS / DRIZZLE FOR
LOCATIONS THAT ARE SUSCEPTIBLE /JEFFERSON CO PA S INTO EASTERN
GARRETT/.

OVERALL TREND OF SLOWING PRECIP ONSET CONTINUES TO BE THE COURSE OF
ACTION.  LATEST 12Z NCEP SUITE PORTRAYS THE THEME OF QPF REACHING
WESTERN FRINGES OF CWA BY 15Z FRIDAY.  CAT POPS ARE STILL GOOD FOR
THIS SYSTEM AS ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF RAIN.
WET WEATHER WILL BE PREDOMINATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
JUST AHEAD OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.  DECENT WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH H8 WINDS OF 60KTS AND H5 NEAR 100KTS...SO
GUSTY SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.  THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELD AND MIXING HEIGHTS FRIDAY
NIGHT MAY YIELDS GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35 KNOTS.  THERMODYNAMIC
PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL WITH DYNAMIC FORCING THE LARGE CONTRIBUTOR
TO ANY THUNDERSTORM INITIATION.  A CHANCE OF THUNDER REMAINS
FORECAST.

MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS IN STORE THIS WEEKEND AS H8 TEMPS PLUMMET
FROM 14C TO 0C.  DAYTIME HIGHS SATURDAY WILL FEEL MORE LIKE LATE OCT
AS THEY TOP OUT ONLY IN THE 50S.  THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF SUNSHINE
AS THE DRY CONVEYOR BELT PASSES...BUT CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY FILL IN
DUE TO DESTRUCTIVE SUNSHINE.  SUBSTANTIAL COOLING ALOFT WITH VERY
UNSTABLE LOW AND MID LEVELS DENOTED BY LAPSE RATES PUSHING 9CKM-1
SATURDAY WILL GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS.  CYCLONE TRACK KEEPS WINDS
WSW SAT NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.  EVEN IF TEMPS WERE TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 30S...AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER AND PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE WOULD OFFSET FROST
DEVELOPMENT.

WINDS WILL STAY MIXED ALLOWING FOR A MILD NIGHT THUR SO SIDED WITH
THE WARMER NAM12 GRIDS...THEN TOOK A BLEND OF THE FORECAST AND BIAS
CORRECTED MOSGUIDE GRIDS FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL HELP TO KEEP SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 SUNDAY WITH
DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. STRONG CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL
WOBBLE NORTH OF LAKE HURON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SHORTWAVES
RIDING UNDER THE LOW BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS. BY MIDWEEK UPPER
TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH WITH ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES TO START THE
WEEK...MODERATING BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ON THE BACKSIDE OF CLOSED LOW ALOFT
OVER MOST THE AREA. THIS WILL SLOWLY MIX OUT FROM THE EAST THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS UNLIKELY TO
RETURN UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED IN EARLY MORNING FOG THURSDAY...OTHERWISE
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011758
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
158 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WEATHER WILL SLOWLY ARRIVE INTO THE REGION UNTIL A COLD
FRONT PASSES FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW CLOUD EROSION HAS CONTINUED TO BE VERY SLOW THIS AFTERNOON
BOTH WITH SOUTHWESTWARD MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE
NORTHEAST TOWARD A WEAK AND FILLING 850 MB LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN
OHIO...AS WELL AS IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE
SOUTHEASTERN FLANK OF SAID LOW. NEITHER OF THESE TWO AREAS OF
INCREASED MIXING HAS YET TO REACH THE METROPOLITAN PITTSBURGH
AREA...THOUGH THERE IS STILL ABUNDANT HOPE THAT THEY WILL DO SO
BEFORE SUNDOWN TODAY. THAT SAID...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES LARGELY IN CHECK ACROSS THE REGION...BUT IT WOULD
SEEM THE MAJORITY OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE
THROUGH SUNSET.

WITH THAT IN MINE...LITTLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS CHANGE IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AND GIVEN THE CONTINUED WEAKENING OF THE 850
MB LOW OVER OHIO AS IT MORPHS INTO A MORE OPEN WAVE AND ADVANCES
NORTHWARD CONCURRENT WITH MID AND UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY...IT WOULD SEEM SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS
AGAIN LIKELY OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AT ALL
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE INCREASING INTO THURSDAY...IT SHOULD
MANAGE TO MIX OUT FAR EARLIER IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY THAN IT HAS
TODAY. WITH THAT IN MIND...TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN RISE WELL
INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
H5 RIDGE AXIS IS PERCHED ATOP THE REGION FOR ONE LAST PERIOD BEFORE
WE ARE PUT BACK INTO REALITY WITH COOLER...MORE SEASONAL WEATHER.
DESPITE SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE...THEY DO NOT OCCUR LONG
ENOUGH NOR ARE THEY DEEP ENOUGH TO PROMOTE STATUS / DRIZZLE FOR
LOCATIONS THAT ARE SUSCEPTIBLE /JEFFERSON CO PA S INTO EASTERN
GARRETT/.

OVERALL TREND OF SLOWING PRECIP ONSET CONTINUES TO BE THE COURSE OF
ACTION.  LATEST 12Z NCEP SUITE PORTRAYS THE THEME OF QPF REACHING
WESTERN FRINGES OF CWA BY 15Z FRIDAY.  CAT POPS ARE STILL GOOD FOR
THIS SYSTEM AS ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF RAIN.
WET WEATHER WILL BE PREDOMINATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
JUST AHEAD OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.  DECENT WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH H8 WINDS OF 60KTS AND H5 NEAR 100KTS...SO
GUSTY SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.  THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELD AND MIXING HEIGHTS FRIDAY
NIGHT MAY YIELDS GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35 KNOTS.  THERMODYNAMIC
PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL WITH DYNAMIC FORCING THE LARGE CONTRIBUTOR
TO ANY THUNDERSTORM INITIATION.  A CHANCE OF THUNDER REMAINS
FORECAST.

MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS IN STORE THIS WEEKEND AS H8 TEMPS PLUMMET
FROM 14C TO 0C.  DAYTIME HIGHS SATURDAY WILL FEEL MORE LIKE LATE OCT
AS THEY TOP OUT ONLY IN THE 50S.  THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF SUNSHINE
AS THE DRY CONVEYOR BELT PASSES...BUT CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY FILL IN
DUE TO DESTRUCTIVE SUNSHINE.  SUBSTANTIAL COOLING ALOFT WITH VERY
UNSTABLE LOW AND MID LEVELS DENOTED BY LAPSE RATES PUSHING 9CKM-1
SATURDAY WILL GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS.  CYCLONE TRACK KEEPS WINDS
WSW SAT NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.  EVEN IF TEMPS WERE TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 30S...AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER AND PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE WOULD OFFSET FROST
DEVELOPMENT.

WINDS WILL STAY MIXED ALLOWING FOR A MILD NIGHT THUR SO SIDED WITH
THE WARMER NAM12 GRIDS...THEN TOOK A BLEND OF THE FORECAST AND BIAS
CORRECTED MOSGUIDE GRIDS FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL HELP TO KEEP SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 SUNDAY WITH
DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. STRONG CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL
WOBBLE NORTH OF LAKE HURON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SHORTWAVES
RIDING UNDER THE LOW BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS. BY MIDWEEK UPPER
TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH WITH ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES TO START THE
WEEK...MODERATING BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ON THE BACKSIDE OF CLOSED LOW ALOFT
OVER MOST THE AREA. THIS WILL SLOWLY MIX OUT FROM THE EAST THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS UNLIKELY TO
RETURN UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED IN EARLY MORNING FOG THURSDAY...OTHERWISE
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011351
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
951 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WEATHER WILL SLOWLY ARRIVE INTO THE REGION UNTIL A COLD
FRONT PASSES FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND POOR MIXING CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR
PERVASIVE STRATUS AND FOG TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION...OTHER THAN
IN THE EASTERNMOST REACHES WHERE RAIN WAS AT A PREMIUM LAST
EVENING. WITH LITTLE IMPETUS FOR VERTICAL MIXING...IT SEEMS LIKELY
FOG/STRATUS WILL HAVE TO MIX OUT FROM THE EDGES. AS A
RESULT...SLOW BREAKUP IS EXPECTED FROM THE EAST TO THE WEST AND
NORTH TO THE SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
LIKELY HOLD BACK TEMPERATURES A BIT. ADDITIONALLY...WITH ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...FORMATION OF CUMULUS SUBSEQUENT TO ANY
BREAKUP OF LOW CLOUDS SEEMS LIKELY. AS SUCH...NO LOCATION SHOULD
REMAIN OR BECOME TOTALLY CLEAR BY AFTERNOON.  FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID AND UPR LVL RIDGING WL BLD INTO THE RGN TNGT THRU THU BRINGING
DRY AND WRM WEA. A CDFNT WL ADVN ACRS THE GT LKS AND UPR OH VLY
RGN FRI WITH SUFFICIENT SPPRT FOR WDSPRD SHWRS. GFS/ECMWF PROGGED
INSTBY FIELDS RMN LOW SO ONLY MAINTAINED A CHC FOR TSTMS...THOUGH
INCRG WNDS ALOFT WL INCR SHEAR VALUES SOME BY THE LT FRI AFTN/EVE
FROPA.

UPR TROFG AND COOL AIR ALOFT BY SAT WL KEEP SHWR CHCS IN THE
FCST...WITH THE BEST CHCS N OF PIT WHERE BETTER MOISTURE/UPR SPPRT
IS PROGGED.

ABV AVG LT WK TEMPS WL DROP TO WELL BLO SEASONAL LVLS BY THE
WKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL HELP TO KEEP SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 SUNDAY WITH
DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. STRONG CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL
WOBBLE NORTH OF LAKE HURON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SHORTWAVES
RIDING UNDER THE LOW BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS. BY MIDWEEK UPPER
TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH WITH ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES TO START THE
WEEK...MODERATING BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ON THE BACKSIDE OF CLOSED LOW ALOFT
OVER MOST THE AREA. THIS WILL SLOWLY MIX OUT FROM THE EAST THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS UNLIKELY TO
RETURN UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED IN EARLY MORNING FOG THURSDAY...OTHERWISE
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011351
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
951 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WEATHER WILL SLOWLY ARRIVE INTO THE REGION UNTIL A COLD
FRONT PASSES FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND POOR MIXING CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR
PERVASIVE STRATUS AND FOG TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION...OTHER THAN
IN THE EASTERNMOST REACHES WHERE RAIN WAS AT A PREMIUM LAST
EVENING. WITH LITTLE IMPETUS FOR VERTICAL MIXING...IT SEEMS LIKELY
FOG/STRATUS WILL HAVE TO MIX OUT FROM THE EDGES. AS A
RESULT...SLOW BREAKUP IS EXPECTED FROM THE EAST TO THE WEST AND
NORTH TO THE SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
LIKELY HOLD BACK TEMPERATURES A BIT. ADDITIONALLY...WITH ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...FORMATION OF CUMULUS SUBSEQUENT TO ANY
BREAKUP OF LOW CLOUDS SEEMS LIKELY. AS SUCH...NO LOCATION SHOULD
REMAIN OR BECOME TOTALLY CLEAR BY AFTERNOON.  FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID AND UPR LVL RIDGING WL BLD INTO THE RGN TNGT THRU THU BRINGING
DRY AND WRM WEA. A CDFNT WL ADVN ACRS THE GT LKS AND UPR OH VLY
RGN FRI WITH SUFFICIENT SPPRT FOR WDSPRD SHWRS. GFS/ECMWF PROGGED
INSTBY FIELDS RMN LOW SO ONLY MAINTAINED A CHC FOR TSTMS...THOUGH
INCRG WNDS ALOFT WL INCR SHEAR VALUES SOME BY THE LT FRI AFTN/EVE
FROPA.

UPR TROFG AND COOL AIR ALOFT BY SAT WL KEEP SHWR CHCS IN THE
FCST...WITH THE BEST CHCS N OF PIT WHERE BETTER MOISTURE/UPR SPPRT
IS PROGGED.

ABV AVG LT WK TEMPS WL DROP TO WELL BLO SEASONAL LVLS BY THE
WKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL HELP TO KEEP SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 SUNDAY WITH
DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. STRONG CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL
WOBBLE NORTH OF LAKE HURON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SHORTWAVES
RIDING UNDER THE LOW BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS. BY MIDWEEK UPPER
TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH WITH ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES TO START THE
WEEK...MODERATING BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ON THE BACKSIDE OF CLOSED LOW ALOFT
OVER MOST THE AREA. THIS WILL SLOWLY MIX OUT FROM THE EAST THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS UNLIKELY TO
RETURN UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED IN EARLY MORNING FOG THURSDAY...OTHERWISE
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010944
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
544 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OTHER THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY...DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS
EXPECTED UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE CONTS TO ALLOW FOR FG/ST AND THIS WL CONT
INTO THE MRNG BEFORE SFC HEATING INITIATES SOME MXG. WEBCAMS
INDICATE DENSE FG NOT WDSPRD ENOUGH FOR AN ADVY ATTM...BUT WL CONT
WITH AN SPS TO HIGHTEN AWARENESS OF THE FG. WATER VAPOR STLT AND
UPR AIR CHARTS SHOW AN UPR LOW SPINNING ACRS WRN PA. THE LOW WL
BEGIN A SLOW EWD EXIT LTR TDA. THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW WL KEEP
ISOLD SHWRS ACRS THE RGN TDA...THOUGH LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND
INSTBY SHOULD LMT PCPN COVG. TEMPS SHOULD CONT A FEW DEG ABV
SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID AND UPR LVL RIDGING WL BLD INTO THE RGN TNGT THRU THU BRINGING
DRY AND WRM WEA. A CDFNT WL ADVN ACRS THE GT LKS AND UPR OH VLY
RGN FRI WITH SUFFICIENT SPPRT FOR WDSPRD SHWRS. GFS/ECMWF PROGGED
INSTBY FIELDS RMN LOW SO ONLY MAINTAINED A CHC FOR TSTMS...THOUGH
INCRG WNDS ALOFT WL INCR SHEAR VALUES SOME BY THE LT FRI AFTN/EVE
FROPA.

UPR TROFG AND COOL AIR ALOFT BY SAT WL KEEP SHWR CHCS IN THE
FCST...WITH THE BEST CHCS N OF PIT WHERE BETTER MOISTURE/UPR SPPRT
IS PROGGED.

ABV AVG LT WK TEMPS WL DROP TO WELL BLO SEASONAL LVLS BY THE
WKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL HELP TO KEEP SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 SUNDAY WITH
DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. STRONG CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL
WOBBLE NORTH OF LAKE HURON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SHORTWAVES
RIDING UNDER THE LOW BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS. BY MIDWEEK UPPER
TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH WITH ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES TO START THE
WEEK...MODERATING BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ON THE BACKSIDE OF CLOSED LOW ALOFT
OVER WRN PA FROM KPIT TO KFKL AND LOOKS TO SPREAD BACK TO KZZV FOR
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE QUITE VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH
VARIABLE MVFR/IFR FOG AT TIMES SOUTH. EXPECT STRATUS AND MVFR/IFR
FOG AT TIMES TO FILL IN ACROSS THE EASTERN TAFS TO THE RIDGES
BEFORE DAYBREAK. AS LOW DEPARTS WEDNESDAY MORNING GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED IN EARLY MORNING FOG THURSDAY...OTHERWISE
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/10






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010944
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
544 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OTHER THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY...DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS
EXPECTED UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE CONTS TO ALLOW FOR FG/ST AND THIS WL CONT
INTO THE MRNG BEFORE SFC HEATING INITIATES SOME MXG. WEBCAMS
INDICATE DENSE FG NOT WDSPRD ENOUGH FOR AN ADVY ATTM...BUT WL CONT
WITH AN SPS TO HIGHTEN AWARENESS OF THE FG. WATER VAPOR STLT AND
UPR AIR CHARTS SHOW AN UPR LOW SPINNING ACRS WRN PA. THE LOW WL
BEGIN A SLOW EWD EXIT LTR TDA. THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW WL KEEP
ISOLD SHWRS ACRS THE RGN TDA...THOUGH LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND
INSTBY SHOULD LMT PCPN COVG. TEMPS SHOULD CONT A FEW DEG ABV
SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID AND UPR LVL RIDGING WL BLD INTO THE RGN TNGT THRU THU BRINGING
DRY AND WRM WEA. A CDFNT WL ADVN ACRS THE GT LKS AND UPR OH VLY
RGN FRI WITH SUFFICIENT SPPRT FOR WDSPRD SHWRS. GFS/ECMWF PROGGED
INSTBY FIELDS RMN LOW SO ONLY MAINTAINED A CHC FOR TSTMS...THOUGH
INCRG WNDS ALOFT WL INCR SHEAR VALUES SOME BY THE LT FRI AFTN/EVE
FROPA.

UPR TROFG AND COOL AIR ALOFT BY SAT WL KEEP SHWR CHCS IN THE
FCST...WITH THE BEST CHCS N OF PIT WHERE BETTER MOISTURE/UPR SPPRT
IS PROGGED.

ABV AVG LT WK TEMPS WL DROP TO WELL BLO SEASONAL LVLS BY THE
WKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL HELP TO KEEP SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 SUNDAY WITH
DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. STRONG CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL
WOBBLE NORTH OF LAKE HURON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SHORTWAVES
RIDING UNDER THE LOW BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS. BY MIDWEEK UPPER
TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH WITH ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES TO START THE
WEEK...MODERATING BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ON THE BACKSIDE OF CLOSED LOW ALOFT
OVER WRN PA FROM KPIT TO KFKL AND LOOKS TO SPREAD BACK TO KZZV FOR
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE QUITE VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH
VARIABLE MVFR/IFR FOG AT TIMES SOUTH. EXPECT STRATUS AND MVFR/IFR
FOG AT TIMES TO FILL IN ACROSS THE EASTERN TAFS TO THE RIDGES
BEFORE DAYBREAK. AS LOW DEPARTS WEDNESDAY MORNING GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED IN EARLY MORNING FOG THURSDAY...OTHERWISE
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/10





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010707
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
307 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OTHER THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY...DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS
EXPECTED UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WATER VAPOR STLT AND UPR AIR CHARTS SHOW AN UPR LOW SPINNING ACRS
WRN PA. THE LOW WL BEGIN A SLOW EWD EXIT LTR TDA. THE PROXIMITY OF
THE LOW WL KEEP ISOLD SHWRS ACRS THE RGN TDA...THOUGH LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE AND INSTBY SHOULD LMT PCPN COVG. PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE
WAS ALLOWING FOR FG/ST AND THIS WL CONT INTO THE MRNG BEFORE SFC
HEATING INITIATE SOME MXG. TEMPS SHOULD CONT A FEW DEG ABV
SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID AND UPR LVL RIDGING WL BLD INTO THE RGN TNGT THRU THU BRINGING
DRY AND WRM WEA. A CDFNT WL ADVN ACRS THE GT LKS AND UPR OH VLY
RGN FRI WITH SUFFICIENT SPPRT FOR WDSPRD SHWRS. GFS/ECMWF PROGGED
INSTBY FIELDS RMN LOW SO ONLY MAINTAINED A CHC FOR TSTMS...THOUGH
INCRG WNDS ALOFT WL INCR SHEAR VALUES SOME BY THE LT FRI AFTN/EVE
FROPA.

UPR TROFG AND COOL AIR ALOFT BY SAT WL KEEP SHWR CHCS IN THE
FCST...WITH THE BEST CHCS N OF PIT WHERE BETTER MOISTURE/UPR SPPRT
IS PROGGED.

ABV AVG LT WK TEMPS WL DROP TO WELL BLO SEASONAL LVLS BY THE
WKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL HELP TO KEEP SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 SUNDAY WITH
DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. STRONG CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL
WOBBLE NORTH OF LAKE HURON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SHORTWAVES
RIDING UNDER THE LOW BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS. BY MIDWEEK UPPER
TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH WITH ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES TO START THE
WEEK...MODERATING BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ON THE BACKSIDE OF CLOSED LOW ALOFT
OVER WRN PA FROM KPIT TO KFKL AND LOOKS TO SPREAD BACK TO KZZV FOR
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE QUITE VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH
VARIABLE MVFR/IFR FOG AT TIMES SOUTH. EXPECT STRATUS AND MVFR/IFR
FOG AT TIMES TO FILL IN ACROSS THE EASTERN TAFS TO THE RIDGES
BEFORE DAYBREAK. AS LOW DEPARTS WEDNESDAY MORNING GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED IN EARLY MORNING FOG THURSDAY...OTHERWISE
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/10







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010540
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
140 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL COME WITH A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ISOLD-SCT SHWRS WL CONT EST E-S OF PIT OVRNGT AS AN UPR LOW CONTS
TO SPIN OVR PA. LAPES RATES HAVE DCRSD ENOUGH FOR TSTMS TO BE
DROPPED FM THE FCST OVRNGT. SHOULD CONT TO SEE FG/ST FORMATION
INTO WED MRNG AS WELL.

WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THAT UPR LOW...HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT POPS
AND AT LEAST BKN CLD COVER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH
DIMINISHMENT THEREAFTER.

DESPITE FRONT/UPR LOW ENCROACHMENT...EXPECT NR TERM TEMPS TO RMN
NR THE SEASONAL AVGS AS PER A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPR TROF ADVN ACRS THE WRN CONUS WL RESULT IN SHRTWV RIDGING OVR
THE GREAT LAKES/UPR OH REGIONS INTO FRIDAY. DRY WEA WL THUS RESUME
WITH WARM ADVCTN SPPRTG TEMPS FM 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF IS FORECAST FOR A FRIDAY APCH WITH THE
LATEST GFS DEPICTING A LATE AFTN/EVE CDFNT PASSAGE. POPS AND TEMPS
WERE ADJUSTED FOR THAT TREND WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MUCH BTR
DESTABILIZATION.  THUNDER MENTION WAS THUS MAINTAINED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY SLICE THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS DIMINISHING WITH THE PASSAGE.
STRONG WIND ARE LIKELY ALONG THE FRONT OWING TO A PROGGED 30-35
KTS OFF THE SURFACE. THIS COMBINED WITH A DRASTIC AIR MASS
DENSITY DISCONTINUITY SHOULD YIELD A FAIRLY WINDY PERIOD INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.

MUCH COLDER...BUT STILL UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE
THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LOW PRES SETTLES OVR THE REGION. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FUELED BY CONTINUED
COLD ADVECTION SHOULD SPPRT A DIURNAL INCREASE IN SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY.

ERN CONUS TROFG IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK...THUS
MAINTAINING GENLY COOL CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ON THE BACKSIDE OF CLOSED LOW ALOFT
OVER WRN PA FROM KPIT TO KFKL AND LOOKS TO SPREAD BACK TO KZZV FOR
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE QUITE VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH
VARIABLE MVFR/IFR FOG AT TIMES SOUTH. EXPECT STRATUS AND MVFR/IFR
FOG AT TIMES TO FILL IN ACROSS THE EASTERN TAFS TO THE RIDGES
BEFORE DAYBREAK. AS LOW DEPARTS WEDNESDAY MORNING GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED IN EARLY MORNING FOG THURSDAY...OTHERWISE
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010540
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
140 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL COME WITH A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ISOLD-SCT SHWRS WL CONT EST E-S OF PIT OVRNGT AS AN UPR LOW CONTS
TO SPIN OVR PA. LAPES RATES HAVE DCRSD ENOUGH FOR TSTMS TO BE
DROPPED FM THE FCST OVRNGT. SHOULD CONT TO SEE FG/ST FORMATION
INTO WED MRNG AS WELL.

WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THAT UPR LOW...HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT POPS
AND AT LEAST BKN CLD COVER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH
DIMINISHMENT THEREAFTER.

DESPITE FRONT/UPR LOW ENCROACHMENT...EXPECT NR TERM TEMPS TO RMN
NR THE SEASONAL AVGS AS PER A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPR TROF ADVN ACRS THE WRN CONUS WL RESULT IN SHRTWV RIDGING OVR
THE GREAT LAKES/UPR OH REGIONS INTO FRIDAY. DRY WEA WL THUS RESUME
WITH WARM ADVCTN SPPRTG TEMPS FM 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF IS FORECAST FOR A FRIDAY APCH WITH THE
LATEST GFS DEPICTING A LATE AFTN/EVE CDFNT PASSAGE. POPS AND TEMPS
WERE ADJUSTED FOR THAT TREND WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MUCH BTR
DESTABILIZATION.  THUNDER MENTION WAS THUS MAINTAINED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY SLICE THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS DIMINISHING WITH THE PASSAGE.
STRONG WIND ARE LIKELY ALONG THE FRONT OWING TO A PROGGED 30-35
KTS OFF THE SURFACE. THIS COMBINED WITH A DRASTIC AIR MASS
DENSITY DISCONTINUITY SHOULD YIELD A FAIRLY WINDY PERIOD INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.

MUCH COLDER...BUT STILL UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE
THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LOW PRES SETTLES OVR THE REGION. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FUELED BY CONTINUED
COLD ADVECTION SHOULD SPPRT A DIURNAL INCREASE IN SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY.

ERN CONUS TROFG IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK...THUS
MAINTAINING GENLY COOL CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ON THE BACKSIDE OF CLOSED LOW ALOFT
OVER WRN PA FROM KPIT TO KFKL AND LOOKS TO SPREAD BACK TO KZZV FOR
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE QUITE VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH
VARIABLE MVFR/IFR FOG AT TIMES SOUTH. EXPECT STRATUS AND MVFR/IFR
FOG AT TIMES TO FILL IN ACROSS THE EASTERN TAFS TO THE RIDGES
BEFORE DAYBREAK. AS LOW DEPARTS WEDNESDAY MORNING GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED IN EARLY MORNING FOG THURSDAY...OTHERWISE
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010356
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1156 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL COME WITH A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISOLD-SCT SHWRS WL CONT EST E-S OF PIT OVRNGT AS AN UPR LOW CONTS
TO SPIN OVR PA. LAPES RATES HAVE DCRSD ENOUGH FOR TSTMS TO BE
DROPPED FM THE FCST OVRNGT. SHOULD CONT TO SEE FG/ST FORMATION
INTO WED MRNG AS WELL.

WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THAT UPR LOW...HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT POPS
AND AT LEAST BKN CLD COVER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH
DIMINISHMENT THEREAFTER.

DESPITE FRONT/UPR LOW ENCROACHMENT...EXPECT NR TERM TEMPS TO RMN
NR THE SEASONAL AVGS AS PER A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPR TROF ADVN ACRS THE WRN CONUS WL RESULT IN SHRTWV RIDGING OVR
THE GREAT LAKES/UPR OH REGIONS INTO FRIDAY. DRY WEA WL THUS RESUME
WITH WARM ADVCTN SPPRTG TEMPS FM 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF IS FORECAST FOR A FRIDAY APCH WITH THE
LATEST GFS DEPICTING A LATE AFTN/EVE CDFNT PASSAGE. POPS AND TEMPS
WERE ADJUSTED FOR THAT TREND WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MUCH BTR
DESTABILIZATION.  THUNDER MENTION WAS THUS MAINTAINED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY SLICE THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS DIMINISHING WITH THE PASSAGE.
STRONG WIND ARE LIKELY ALONG THE FRONT OWING TO A PROGGED 30-35
KTS OFF THE SURFACE. THIS COMBINED WITH A DRASTIC AIR MASS
DENSITY DISCONTINUITY SHOULD YIELD A FAIRLY WINDY PERIOD INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.

MUCH COLDER...BUT STILL UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE
THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LOW PRES SETTLES OVR THE REGION. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FUELED BY CONTINUED
COLD ADVECTION SHOULD SPPRT A DIURNAL INCREASE IN SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY.

ERN CONUS TROFG IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK...THUS
MAINTAINING GENLY COOL CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH ERLY TNGT...CAUSING
VERY BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IF AT ALL. COMPLEX AVIATION FORECAST
TONIGHT...AS AT LEAST A LITTLE RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA EARLIER
TUES MAY ENHANCE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY WEDS MORNING DESPITE
POTENTIAL FOR LLVL STRATUS. STRATUS POTENTIAL WOULD BE HIGHER FOR
NRN PORTS AS LLVL MOISTURE IS MORE ABUNDANT THERE.
REGARDLESS...IFR RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CONDITIONS...SHOULD FOG
DEVELOP. A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR WEDS AS MIXING
WILL LIFT CLOUD BASES TO OVER 3KFT.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010356
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1156 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL COME WITH A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISOLD-SCT SHWRS WL CONT EST E-S OF PIT OVRNGT AS AN UPR LOW CONTS
TO SPIN OVR PA. LAPES RATES HAVE DCRSD ENOUGH FOR TSTMS TO BE
DROPPED FM THE FCST OVRNGT. SHOULD CONT TO SEE FG/ST FORMATION
INTO WED MRNG AS WELL.

WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THAT UPR LOW...HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT POPS
AND AT LEAST BKN CLD COVER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH
DIMINISHMENT THEREAFTER.

DESPITE FRONT/UPR LOW ENCROACHMENT...EXPECT NR TERM TEMPS TO RMN
NR THE SEASONAL AVGS AS PER A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPR TROF ADVN ACRS THE WRN CONUS WL RESULT IN SHRTWV RIDGING OVR
THE GREAT LAKES/UPR OH REGIONS INTO FRIDAY. DRY WEA WL THUS RESUME
WITH WARM ADVCTN SPPRTG TEMPS FM 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF IS FORECAST FOR A FRIDAY APCH WITH THE
LATEST GFS DEPICTING A LATE AFTN/EVE CDFNT PASSAGE. POPS AND TEMPS
WERE ADJUSTED FOR THAT TREND WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MUCH BTR
DESTABILIZATION.  THUNDER MENTION WAS THUS MAINTAINED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY SLICE THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS DIMINISHING WITH THE PASSAGE.
STRONG WIND ARE LIKELY ALONG THE FRONT OWING TO A PROGGED 30-35
KTS OFF THE SURFACE. THIS COMBINED WITH A DRASTIC AIR MASS
DENSITY DISCONTINUITY SHOULD YIELD A FAIRLY WINDY PERIOD INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.

MUCH COLDER...BUT STILL UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE
THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LOW PRES SETTLES OVR THE REGION. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FUELED BY CONTINUED
COLD ADVECTION SHOULD SPPRT A DIURNAL INCREASE IN SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY.

ERN CONUS TROFG IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK...THUS
MAINTAINING GENLY COOL CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH ERLY TNGT...CAUSING
VERY BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IF AT ALL. COMPLEX AVIATION FORECAST
TONIGHT...AS AT LEAST A LITTLE RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA EARLIER
TUES MAY ENHANCE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY WEDS MORNING DESPITE
POTENTIAL FOR LLVL STRATUS. STRATUS POTENTIAL WOULD BE HIGHER FOR
NRN PORTS AS LLVL MOISTURE IS MORE ABUNDANT THERE.
REGARDLESS...IFR RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CONDITIONS...SHOULD FOG
DEVELOP. A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR WEDS AS MIXING
WILL LIFT CLOUD BASES TO OVER 3KFT.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010015
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
815 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL COME WITH A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MID EVE UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST POPS AND WEA FOR CURRENT
TRENDS...MAIN FEATURE OF WHICH WERE THE ADDITIONS OF OVRNGT FOG
AND THE READDITION OF ISOLD TSTMS AS LIGHTNING STRIKES CONT UNDR
COOLING MID LVLS.

WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THAT UPR LOW...HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT POPS
AND AT LEAST BKN CLD COVER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH
DIMINISHMENT THEREAFTER.

DESPITE FRONT/UPR LOW ENCROACHMENT...EXPECT NR TERM TEMPS TO RMN
NR THE SEASONAL AVGS AS PER A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPR TROF ADVN ACRS THE WRN CONUS WL RESULT IN SHRTWV RIDGING OVR
THE GREAT LAKES/UPR OH REGIONS INTO FRIDAY. DRY WEA WL THUS RESUME
WITH WARM ADVCTN SPPRTG TEMPS FM 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF IS FORECAST FOR A FRIDAY APCH WITH THE
LATEST GFS DEPICTING A LATE AFTN/EVE CDFNT PASSAGE. POPS AND TEMPS
WERE ADJUSTED FOR THAT TREND WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MUCH BTR
DESTABILIZATION.  THUNDER MENTION WAS THUS MAINTAINED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY SLICE THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS DIMINISHING WITH THE PASSAGE.
STRONG WIND ARE LIKELY ALONG THE FRONT OWING TO A PROGGED 30-35
KTS OFF THE SURFACE. THIS COMBINED WITH A DRASTIC AIR MASS
DENSITY DISCONTINUITY SHOULD YIELD A FAIRLY WINDY PERIOD INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.

MUCH COLDER...BUT STILL UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE
THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LOW PRES SETTLES OVR THE REGION. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FUELED BY CONTINUED
COLD ADVECTION SHOULD SPPRT A DIURNAL INCREASE IN SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY.

ERN CONUS TROFG IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK...THUS
MAINTAINING GENLY COOL CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
ABOUT 03Z...CAUSING VERY BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IF AT ALL. COMPLEX
AVIATION FORECAST TONIGHT...AS AT LEAST A LITTLE RAINFALL ACROSS THE
AREA EARLIER TUES MAY ENHANCE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY WEDS
MORNING DESPITE POTENTIAL FOR LLVL STRATUS. STRATUS POTENTIAL WOULD
BE HIGHER FOR NRN PORTS AS LLVL MOISTURE IS MORE ABUNDANT THERE.
REGARDLESS...IFR RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CONDITIONS...SHOULD FOG
DEVELOP. A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR WEDS AS MIXING
WILL LIFT CLOUD BASES TO OVER 3KFT.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

XV/TA






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010015
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
815 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL COME WITH A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MID EVE UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST POPS AND WEA FOR CURRENT
TRENDS...MAIN FEATURE OF WHICH WERE THE ADDITIONS OF OVRNGT FOG
AND THE READDITION OF ISOLD TSTMS AS LIGHTNING STRIKES CONT UNDR
COOLING MID LVLS.

WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THAT UPR LOW...HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT POPS
AND AT LEAST BKN CLD COVER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH
DIMINISHMENT THEREAFTER.

DESPITE FRONT/UPR LOW ENCROACHMENT...EXPECT NR TERM TEMPS TO RMN
NR THE SEASONAL AVGS AS PER A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPR TROF ADVN ACRS THE WRN CONUS WL RESULT IN SHRTWV RIDGING OVR
THE GREAT LAKES/UPR OH REGIONS INTO FRIDAY. DRY WEA WL THUS RESUME
WITH WARM ADVCTN SPPRTG TEMPS FM 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF IS FORECAST FOR A FRIDAY APCH WITH THE
LATEST GFS DEPICTING A LATE AFTN/EVE CDFNT PASSAGE. POPS AND TEMPS
WERE ADJUSTED FOR THAT TREND WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MUCH BTR
DESTABILIZATION.  THUNDER MENTION WAS THUS MAINTAINED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY SLICE THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS DIMINISHING WITH THE PASSAGE.
STRONG WIND ARE LIKELY ALONG THE FRONT OWING TO A PROGGED 30-35
KTS OFF THE SURFACE. THIS COMBINED WITH A DRASTIC AIR MASS
DENSITY DISCONTINUITY SHOULD YIELD A FAIRLY WINDY PERIOD INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.

MUCH COLDER...BUT STILL UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE
THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LOW PRES SETTLES OVR THE REGION. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FUELED BY CONTINUED
COLD ADVECTION SHOULD SPPRT A DIURNAL INCREASE IN SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY.

ERN CONUS TROFG IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK...THUS
MAINTAINING GENLY COOL CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
ABOUT 03Z...CAUSING VERY BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IF AT ALL. COMPLEX
AVIATION FORECAST TONIGHT...AS AT LEAST A LITTLE RAINFALL ACROSS THE
AREA EARLIER TUES MAY ENHANCE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY WEDS
MORNING DESPITE POTENTIAL FOR LLVL STRATUS. STRATUS POTENTIAL WOULD
BE HIGHER FOR NRN PORTS AS LLVL MOISTURE IS MORE ABUNDANT THERE.
REGARDLESS...IFR RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CONDITIONS...SHOULD FOG
DEVELOP. A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR WEDS AS MIXING
WILL LIFT CLOUD BASES TO OVER 3KFT.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

XV/TA







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 302330
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
633 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL COME WITH A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE EARLY EVE UPDATE AS SCT SHWRS
CONT WITH UPR LOW PRES AND SFC CDFNT MOVG OVR THE UPR OH REGION.

WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THAT UPR LOW...HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT POPS AND AT
LEAST BKN CLD COVER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH DIMINISHMENT
THEREAFTER.

DESPITE FRONT/UPR LOW ENCROACHMENT...EXPECT NR TERM TEMPS TO RMN
NR THE SEASONAL AVGS AS PER A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPR TROF ADVN ACRS THE WRN CONUS WL RESULT IN SHRTWV RIDGING OVR
THE GREAT LAKES/UPR OH REGIONS INTO FRIDAY. DRY WEA WL THUS RESUME
WITH WARM ADVCTN SPPRTG TEMPS FM 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF IS FORECAST FOR A FRIDAY APCH WITH THE
LATEST GFS DEPICTING A LATE AFTN/EVE CDFNT PASSAGE. POPS AND TEMPS
WERE ADJUSTED FOR THAT TREND WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MUCH BTR
DESTABILIZATION.  THUNDER MENTION WAS THUS MAINTAINED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY SLICE THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS DIMINISHING WITH THE PASSAGE.
STRONG WIND ARE LIKELY ALONG THE FRONT OWING TO A PROGGED 30-35
KTS OFF THE SURFACE. THIS COMBINED WITH A DRASTIC AIR MASS
DENSITY DISCONTINUITY SHOULD YIELD A FAIRLY WINDY PERIOD INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.

MUCH COLDER...BUT STILL UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE
THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LOW PRES SETTLES OVR THE REGION. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FUELED BY CONTINUED
COLD ADVECTION SHOULD SPPRT A DIURNAL INCREASE IN SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY.

ERN CONUS TROFG IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK...THUS
MAINTAINING GENLY COOL CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
ABOUT 03Z...CAUSING VERY BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IF AT ALL. COMPLEX
AVIATION FORECAST TONIGHT...AS AT LEAST A LITTLE RAINFALL ACROSS THE
AREA EARLIER TUES MAY ENHANCE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY WEDS
MORNING DESPITE POTENTIAL FOR LLVL STRATUS. STRATUS POTENTIAL WOULD
BE HIGHER FOR NRN PORTS AS LLVL MOISTURE IS MORE ABUNDANT THERE.
REGARDLESS...IFR RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CONDITIONS...SHOULD FOG
DEVELOP. A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR WEDS AS MIXING
WILL LIFT CLOUD BASES TO OVER 3KFT.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 302330
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
633 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL COME WITH A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE EARLY EVE UPDATE AS SCT SHWRS
CONT WITH UPR LOW PRES AND SFC CDFNT MOVG OVR THE UPR OH REGION.

WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THAT UPR LOW...HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT POPS AND AT
LEAST BKN CLD COVER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH DIMINISHMENT
THEREAFTER.

DESPITE FRONT/UPR LOW ENCROACHMENT...EXPECT NR TERM TEMPS TO RMN
NR THE SEASONAL AVGS AS PER A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPR TROF ADVN ACRS THE WRN CONUS WL RESULT IN SHRTWV RIDGING OVR
THE GREAT LAKES/UPR OH REGIONS INTO FRIDAY. DRY WEA WL THUS RESUME
WITH WARM ADVCTN SPPRTG TEMPS FM 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF IS FORECAST FOR A FRIDAY APCH WITH THE
LATEST GFS DEPICTING A LATE AFTN/EVE CDFNT PASSAGE. POPS AND TEMPS
WERE ADJUSTED FOR THAT TREND WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MUCH BTR
DESTABILIZATION.  THUNDER MENTION WAS THUS MAINTAINED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY SLICE THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS DIMINISHING WITH THE PASSAGE.
STRONG WIND ARE LIKELY ALONG THE FRONT OWING TO A PROGGED 30-35
KTS OFF THE SURFACE. THIS COMBINED WITH A DRASTIC AIR MASS
DENSITY DISCONTINUITY SHOULD YIELD A FAIRLY WINDY PERIOD INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.

MUCH COLDER...BUT STILL UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE
THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LOW PRES SETTLES OVR THE REGION. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FUELED BY CONTINUED
COLD ADVECTION SHOULD SPPRT A DIURNAL INCREASE IN SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY.

ERN CONUS TROFG IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK...THUS
MAINTAINING GENLY COOL CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
ABOUT 03Z...CAUSING VERY BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IF AT ALL. COMPLEX
AVIATION FORECAST TONIGHT...AS AT LEAST A LITTLE RAINFALL ACROSS THE
AREA EARLIER TUES MAY ENHANCE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY WEDS
MORNING DESPITE POTENTIAL FOR LLVL STRATUS. STRATUS POTENTIAL WOULD
BE HIGHER FOR NRN PORTS AS LLVL MOISTURE IS MORE ABUNDANT THERE.
REGARDLESS...IFR RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CONDITIONS...SHOULD FOG
DEVELOP. A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR WEDS AS MIXING
WILL LIFT CLOUD BASES TO OVER 3KFT.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301856
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
256 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER WIDESPREAD RAIN DEPARTS THE REGION THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ON THE REBOUND AGAIN FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BIG TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION WITH UPPER 50S
IN THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND 80 DEGREES
AHEAD OF THE BAND. NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAND IS BEGINNING TO FALL
APART WITH SOME CONVECTIVE CELLS DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THE
LINE...WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION HAS DONE A BETTER JOB HOLDING
TOGETHER...WITH SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LINE
ITSELF. SHOULD NOT BE ANY THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND THE BAND.
HOWEVER...WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE ERIE
INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...HAVE KEPT SOME POPS INTO THE FORECAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SOME ISOLATED ECHOES ARE BEGINNING TO
APPEAR ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO. WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER
LOW...HAVE KEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH DIMINISHING TRENDS IN THE AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...THINK THAT STRATUS SHOULD PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
MORNING. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AS WELL DUE TO PROXIMITY OF UPPER LOW. ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LARGE SCALE RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN FACT...THE MODEL CONSENSUS DOES FAVOR SOME
SORT OF A WEAK WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WHICH DOES MANAGE TO BRIEFLY INCREASE MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG IT. THIS MAY YIELD AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...HOWEVER GIVEN THE WEAKNESS OF THE BOUNDARY AND
WEAK SATURATION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE FEATURED IN THE
FORECAST.

DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED ON THURSDAY AND
CONTINUES RIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM BEARS DOWN
ON THE AREA. THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAS LARGELY SLOWED RELATIVE TO THE
00Z GUIDANCE AND FAVORS A LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON FRIDAY. POPS WERE SLOWED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WHAT IS
ALSO NOTABLE IS THE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA ON THE GFS/ECMWF. BOTH DEPICT LOWER 80S IN THE EASTERN
REACHES OF THE CWA UNDER A VERY WELL MIXED LOWER ATMOSPHERE IN THE
DRY PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. THIS WILL BE IN STARK CONTRAST TO THE
WESTERN CWA...WHERE DRASTICALLY INCREASED LAYER MOISTURE...500-700
J/KG OF CAPE AND STRONG SHEAR WILL BE RESULTING IN VERY STRONG
CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CHARGING EASTWARD
INTO THE CWA ALONG WITH MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS TO START THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE SLICING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO
EAST AS IT DOES SO. STRONG WINDS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG THE FRONT AS
IT DOES SO OWING TO ROUGHLY 30-35 KTS OF MOMENTUM OFF THE SURFACE
TO MIX DOWN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS COMBINED WITH A DRASTIC
AIR MASS DENSITY DISCONTINUITY SHOULD YIELD A FAIRLY WINDY PERIOD
FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

MUCH COLDER AND STILL UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LOW SETTLES IN OVERHEAD BY
SATURDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DIURNAL INCREASE
IN SHOWERS UNDER THE UPPER LOW ON SATURDAY. WITH WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS FALLING LIKE A ROCK...THERE MAY BE SOME P-TYPE
CONSIDERATIONS...POSSIBLY SOME GRAUPEL OR SOMETHING OF THAT
NATURE...HOWEVER THE GENERAL STORY WILL BE THE TRANSITION TO MUCH
COLDER CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...A GENERAL CONTINUATION OF AN EASTERN TROUGH
AND WESTERN FLAT/BROAD RIDGING SCENARIO SEEMS TO PLAY OUT. THIS
SHOULD YIELD WEAKER AND FASTER MOVING SYSTEMS OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE AND INTO THE EASTERN U.S. WITH GENERALLY COOL CONDITIONS
REMAINING. FRIES

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL FORECASTS INDICATED THAT THE FRONTAL BAND WOULD PASS THROUGH
WITH VFR CONDITIONS...WHILE OBSERVATIONS AT MOST SITES HAVE DROPPED
TO IFR. WITH MODELS NOT HANDLING THE PASSAGE WELL...HAVE GENERALLY
USED UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS FOR CREATING 18Z TAFS. THINK
THAT ANY SORT OF THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD BE CONTAINED TO
DUJ/LBE/MGW AT THIS POINT. BEHIND THE BAND...EXPECT THAT SITES
SHOULD DROP TO IFR FOR A FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...ONE CONCERN IS THAT
IFR CONDITIONS OBSERVED UPSTREAM MAY BE DUE TO LAKE ERIE
INFLUENCE...WHICH WOULD NOT BE AS STRONG AT LOCAL TERMINALS. IN THAT
CASE...WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS MAY NOT OCCUR. BY EVENING...EXPECT
THAT CLOUDS WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD DUE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW. WITH MVFR
STRATUS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...HAVE NOT ADDED FOG AT ANY TERMINALS. AS
STRATUS SCATTERS OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING...REMAINING CLOUDS SHOULD
LIFT TO VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301856
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
256 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER WIDESPREAD RAIN DEPARTS THE REGION THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ON THE REBOUND AGAIN FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BIG TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION WITH UPPER 50S
IN THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND 80 DEGREES
AHEAD OF THE BAND. NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAND IS BEGINNING TO FALL
APART WITH SOME CONVECTIVE CELLS DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THE
LINE...WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION HAS DONE A BETTER JOB HOLDING
TOGETHER...WITH SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LINE
ITSELF. SHOULD NOT BE ANY THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND THE BAND.
HOWEVER...WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE ERIE
INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...HAVE KEPT SOME POPS INTO THE FORECAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SOME ISOLATED ECHOES ARE BEGINNING TO
APPEAR ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO. WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER
LOW...HAVE KEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH DIMINISHING TRENDS IN THE AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...THINK THAT STRATUS SHOULD PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
MORNING. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AS WELL DUE TO PROXIMITY OF UPPER LOW. ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LARGE SCALE RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN FACT...THE MODEL CONSENSUS DOES FAVOR SOME
SORT OF A WEAK WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WHICH DOES MANAGE TO BRIEFLY INCREASE MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG IT. THIS MAY YIELD AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...HOWEVER GIVEN THE WEAKNESS OF THE BOUNDARY AND
WEAK SATURATION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE FEATURED IN THE
FORECAST.

DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED ON THURSDAY AND
CONTINUES RIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM BEARS DOWN
ON THE AREA. THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAS LARGELY SLOWED RELATIVE TO THE
00Z GUIDANCE AND FAVORS A LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON FRIDAY. POPS WERE SLOWED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WHAT IS
ALSO NOTABLE IS THE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA ON THE GFS/ECMWF. BOTH DEPICT LOWER 80S IN THE EASTERN
REACHES OF THE CWA UNDER A VERY WELL MIXED LOWER ATMOSPHERE IN THE
DRY PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. THIS WILL BE IN STARK CONTRAST TO THE
WESTERN CWA...WHERE DRASTICALLY INCREASED LAYER MOISTURE...500-700
J/KG OF CAPE AND STRONG SHEAR WILL BE RESULTING IN VERY STRONG
CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CHARGING EASTWARD
INTO THE CWA ALONG WITH MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS TO START THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE SLICING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO
EAST AS IT DOES SO. STRONG WINDS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG THE FRONT AS
IT DOES SO OWING TO ROUGHLY 30-35 KTS OF MOMENTUM OFF THE SURFACE
TO MIX DOWN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS COMBINED WITH A DRASTIC
AIR MASS DENSITY DISCONTINUITY SHOULD YIELD A FAIRLY WINDY PERIOD
FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

MUCH COLDER AND STILL UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LOW SETTLES IN OVERHEAD BY
SATURDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DIURNAL INCREASE
IN SHOWERS UNDER THE UPPER LOW ON SATURDAY. WITH WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS FALLING LIKE A ROCK...THERE MAY BE SOME P-TYPE
CONSIDERATIONS...POSSIBLY SOME GRAUPEL OR SOMETHING OF THAT
NATURE...HOWEVER THE GENERAL STORY WILL BE THE TRANSITION TO MUCH
COLDER CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...A GENERAL CONTINUATION OF AN EASTERN TROUGH
AND WESTERN FLAT/BROAD RIDGING SCENARIO SEEMS TO PLAY OUT. THIS
SHOULD YIELD WEAKER AND FASTER MOVING SYSTEMS OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE AND INTO THE EASTERN U.S. WITH GENERALLY COOL CONDITIONS
REMAINING. FRIES

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL FORECASTS INDICATED THAT THE FRONTAL BAND WOULD PASS THROUGH
WITH VFR CONDITIONS...WHILE OBSERVATIONS AT MOST SITES HAVE DROPPED
TO IFR. WITH MODELS NOT HANDLING THE PASSAGE WELL...HAVE GENERALLY
USED UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS FOR CREATING 18Z TAFS. THINK
THAT ANY SORT OF THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD BE CONTAINED TO
DUJ/LBE/MGW AT THIS POINT. BEHIND THE BAND...EXPECT THAT SITES
SHOULD DROP TO IFR FOR A FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...ONE CONCERN IS THAT
IFR CONDITIONS OBSERVED UPSTREAM MAY BE DUE TO LAKE ERIE
INFLUENCE...WHICH WOULD NOT BE AS STRONG AT LOCAL TERMINALS. IN THAT
CASE...WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS MAY NOT OCCUR. BY EVENING...EXPECT
THAT CLOUDS WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD DUE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW. WITH MVFR
STRATUS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...HAVE NOT ADDED FOG AT ANY TERMINALS. AS
STRATUS SCATTERS OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING...REMAINING CLOUDS SHOULD
LIFT TO VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301611
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1211 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH NOON UPDATE...CONTINUED TO UPDATE POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.
BAND OF FRONTAL PRECIPITATION IS DECREASING IN OVERALL
INTENSITY...BUT HAVE MANAGED TO HOLD TOGETHER FAIRLY WELL AS IT
APPROACHES WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND THE NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES ARE RISING INTO THE MID 70S WHERE SKIES
REMAIN CLEAR...BUT HAVE ALREADY SEEN NEW CASTLE AND NEW
PHILADELPHIA DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE CLOUD
COVER REMAINS THICK. LIGHTNING COVERAGE HAS BEEN RATHER SPARSE
ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO...BUT HAVE CONTINUED A MENTION OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM FOR ALL LOCATIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MENTION OF
SMALL HAIL IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WEAKENS THIS EVENING. THE 50H LOW OPENS UP AND
WHATS LEFT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DRIFTS INTO EASTERN PA.

UPPER LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY WILL SWING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
EXITING 50H LOW SO WILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN
THE FAR EAST FOR A PORTION OF THE EVENING HOURS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW ON THURSDAY...
PROVIDING SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL SEEING SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY. LATEST NAM IS SLOWING EVERYTHING DOWN...GFS IS THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE AND THE 12Z ECMWF IS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. FRIDAY DOES
APPEAR LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED WIDESPREAD RAIN.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT FROM THE QUIET WE HAVE EXPERIENCED
OVER THE LAST TWO OR SO WEEKS...TO A MORE ACTIVE AND COOLER
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...HAVE ESSENTIALLY IGNORED MODEL
GUIDANCE...AS MODELS HAVE BEEN COMPLETELY TOO OPTIMISTIC IN
UPSTREAM LOCATIONS. WHILE MODELS INDICATE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH WITH VFR CONDITIONS...LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. IN
ADDITION...VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO 3/4 MILE AND 1 1/4 MILE AT
ZANESVILLE AND NEW PHILADELPHIA...RESPECTIVELY. HAVE LOWER
CONFIDENCE THAT BAND OF SHOWERS WILL HOLD TOGETHER WELL ENOUGH TO
RESULT IN SUCH LOW VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AT DUJ/LBE/MGW...BUT AT
OTHER LOCATIONS...HAVE PUT IN IFR CONDITIONS FOR THE BRIEF PERIOD
OF SHOWERS...AS WELL AS RESTRICTIONS CONTINUING BEHIND THE FRONT
AS WELL. HAVE KEPT VCTS IN MOST TAFS AS WELL...ALTHOUGH SO FAR
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE HAS BEEN RATHER SPARSE.

EXPECT CLEARING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...WITH RAINFALL TODAY LIKELY
TO ENHANCE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS FOR SUNRISE FOG.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301345
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
945 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH 945AM UPDATE...HAVE CONTINUED TO EXPAND COVERAGE OF LIKELY
AND CATEGORICAL POPS. REGARDLESS OF WHAT THE HRRR AND RAP ARE
CURRENTLY DEPICTING...LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES TO HOLD TOGETHER. HOWEVER...12Z PIT SOUNDING SHOWS A LOT
OF DRY AIR...WHICH IS LIKELY THE REASON THAT MODELS SHOW A
WEAKENING TREND IN SHOWERS LATER TODAY AS THE AIR MASS MOVES
FARTHER EAST. IN ADDITION...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
EXPANDED ITS AREA FOR A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT...AND HAVE LIKEWISE
EXPANDED THE AREA IN THE FORECAST THAT MENTIONS A SMALL HAIL
THREAT. 4AM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

WEAK BOUNDARY WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE AREA TODAY. STILL HAVING A TOUGH TIME GETTING A HANDLE ON HOW
MUCH PRECIPITATION THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BE WITH THE MAIN 50H LOW WHICH WILL TRAIL BEHIND THE
FRONT AND MOVE INTO NE OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE NEVER REALLY GETS LINED UP AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE 50H LOW...BUT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGS BACK WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A DRY LAYER UP
TO AROUND 5000 FT THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY...MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR
SHOWERS TO REACH THE GROUND. WILL LEAVE IN CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. IF THE LOW LEVELS ARE ABLE TO
SATURATE TODAY THEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...COLD POOL ALOFT...WITH PASSING 50H...LOW MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT AN ISOLATED STORM COULD
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WEAKENS THIS EVENING. THE 50H LOW OPENS UP AND
WHATS LEFT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DRIFTS INTO EASTERN PA.

UPPER LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY WILL SWING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
EXITING 50H LOW SO WILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN
THE FAR EAST FOR A PORTION OF THE EVENING HOURS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW ON THURSDAY...
PROVIDING SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL SEEING SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY. LATEST NAM IS SLOWING EVERYTHING DOWN...GFS IS THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE AND THE 12Z ECMWF IS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. FRIDAY DOES
APPEAR LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED WIDESPREAD RAIN.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT FROM THE QUIET WE HAVE EXPERIENCED
OVER THE LAST TWO OR SO WEEKS...TO A MORE ACTIVE AND COOLER
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAKE ERIE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW. BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS
OHIO THIS MORNING CLOSER TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. MODELS SHOWING
RATHER WIDESPREAD COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT
WHOLLY CONVINCED OF THIS BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. VCSH REMAINS MOST PORTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE MAINLY AT KFKL AND KDUJ.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301345
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
945 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH 945AM UPDATE...HAVE CONTINUED TO EXPAND COVERAGE OF LIKELY
AND CATEGORICAL POPS. REGARDLESS OF WHAT THE HRRR AND RAP ARE
CURRENTLY DEPICTING...LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES TO HOLD TOGETHER. HOWEVER...12Z PIT SOUNDING SHOWS A LOT
OF DRY AIR...WHICH IS LIKELY THE REASON THAT MODELS SHOW A
WEAKENING TREND IN SHOWERS LATER TODAY AS THE AIR MASS MOVES
FARTHER EAST. IN ADDITION...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
EXPANDED ITS AREA FOR A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT...AND HAVE LIKEWISE
EXPANDED THE AREA IN THE FORECAST THAT MENTIONS A SMALL HAIL
THREAT. 4AM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

WEAK BOUNDARY WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE AREA TODAY. STILL HAVING A TOUGH TIME GETTING A HANDLE ON HOW
MUCH PRECIPITATION THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BE WITH THE MAIN 50H LOW WHICH WILL TRAIL BEHIND THE
FRONT AND MOVE INTO NE OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE NEVER REALLY GETS LINED UP AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE 50H LOW...BUT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGS BACK WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A DRY LAYER UP
TO AROUND 5000 FT THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY...MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR
SHOWERS TO REACH THE GROUND. WILL LEAVE IN CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. IF THE LOW LEVELS ARE ABLE TO
SATURATE TODAY THEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...COLD POOL ALOFT...WITH PASSING 50H...LOW MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT AN ISOLATED STORM COULD
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WEAKENS THIS EVENING. THE 50H LOW OPENS UP AND
WHATS LEFT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DRIFTS INTO EASTERN PA.

UPPER LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY WILL SWING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
EXITING 50H LOW SO WILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN
THE FAR EAST FOR A PORTION OF THE EVENING HOURS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW ON THURSDAY...
PROVIDING SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL SEEING SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY. LATEST NAM IS SLOWING EVERYTHING DOWN...GFS IS THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE AND THE 12Z ECMWF IS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. FRIDAY DOES
APPEAR LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED WIDESPREAD RAIN.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT FROM THE QUIET WE HAVE EXPERIENCED
OVER THE LAST TWO OR SO WEEKS...TO A MORE ACTIVE AND COOLER
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAKE ERIE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW. BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS
OHIO THIS MORNING CLOSER TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. MODELS SHOWING
RATHER WIDESPREAD COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT
WHOLLY CONVINCED OF THIS BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. VCSH REMAINS MOST PORTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE MAINLY AT KFKL AND KDUJ.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301155
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
755 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH 8AM UPDATE...HAVE ADDED SOME LIKELY POPS IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. HRRR AND RAP MODELS SHOW THE LINE OF
SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN OHIO AS BEING MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE BY THE
AFTERNOON...BUT STILL THINK THE LINE WILL MANAGE TO HOLD TOGETHER
AT LEAST INTO MERCER COUNTY. ALSO ADDED THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST
SLIGHTLY EARLIER WITH SOME ISOLATED STRIKES ALREADY OCCURRING IN
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

WEAK BOUNDARY WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE AREA TODAY. STILL HAVING A TOUGH TIME GETTING A HANDLE ON HOW
MUCH PRECIPITATION THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BE WITH THE MAIN 50H LOW WHICH WILL TRAIL BEHIND THE
FRONT AND MOVE INTO NE OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE NEVER REALLY GETS LINED UP AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE 50H LOW...BUT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGS BACK WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A DRY LAYER UP
TO AROUND 5000 FT THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY...MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR
SHOWERS TO REACH THE GROUND. WILL LEAVE IN CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. IF THE LOW LEVELS ARE ABLE TO
SATURATE TODAY THEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...COLD POOL ALOFT...WITH PASSING 50H...LOW MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT AN ISOLATED STORM COULD
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WEAKENS THIS EVENING. THE 50H LOW OPENS UP AND
WHATS LEFT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DRIFTS INTO EASTERN PA.

UPPER LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY WILL SWING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
EXITING 50H LOW SO WILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN
THE FAR EAST FOR A PORTION OF THE EVENING HOURS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW ON THURSDAY...
PROVIDING SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL SEEING SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY. LATEST NAM IS SLOWING EVERYTHING DOWN...GFS IS THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE AND THE 12Z ECMWF IS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. FRIDAY DOES
APPEAR LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED WIDESPREAD RAIN.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT FROM THE QUIET WE HAVE EXPERIENCED
OVER THE LAST TWO OR SO WEEKS...TO A MORE ACTIVE AND COOLER
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR FOG ALREADY HAS DEVELOPED IN THE USUAL VALLEY LOW LYING AREAS
AND IS INCLUDED IN TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH PATCHY MVFR
ELSEWHERE. CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAKE ERIE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW. BAND OF SHOWERS
ACROSS MICHIGAN THIS MORNING CLOSER TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. MODELS
SHOWING RATHER WIDESPREAD COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
NOT WHOLLY CONVINCED OF THIS BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. VCSH REMAINS MOST PORTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY AT KFKL AND KDUJ.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301155
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
755 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH 8AM UPDATE...HAVE ADDED SOME LIKELY POPS IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. HRRR AND RAP MODELS SHOW THE LINE OF
SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN OHIO AS BEING MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE BY THE
AFTERNOON...BUT STILL THINK THE LINE WILL MANAGE TO HOLD TOGETHER
AT LEAST INTO MERCER COUNTY. ALSO ADDED THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST
SLIGHTLY EARLIER WITH SOME ISOLATED STRIKES ALREADY OCCURRING IN
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

WEAK BOUNDARY WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE AREA TODAY. STILL HAVING A TOUGH TIME GETTING A HANDLE ON HOW
MUCH PRECIPITATION THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BE WITH THE MAIN 50H LOW WHICH WILL TRAIL BEHIND THE
FRONT AND MOVE INTO NE OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE NEVER REALLY GETS LINED UP AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE 50H LOW...BUT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGS BACK WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A DRY LAYER UP
TO AROUND 5000 FT THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY...MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR
SHOWERS TO REACH THE GROUND. WILL LEAVE IN CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. IF THE LOW LEVELS ARE ABLE TO
SATURATE TODAY THEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...COLD POOL ALOFT...WITH PASSING 50H...LOW MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT AN ISOLATED STORM COULD
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WEAKENS THIS EVENING. THE 50H LOW OPENS UP AND
WHATS LEFT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DRIFTS INTO EASTERN PA.

UPPER LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY WILL SWING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
EXITING 50H LOW SO WILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN
THE FAR EAST FOR A PORTION OF THE EVENING HOURS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW ON THURSDAY...
PROVIDING SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL SEEING SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY. LATEST NAM IS SLOWING EVERYTHING DOWN...GFS IS THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE AND THE 12Z ECMWF IS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. FRIDAY DOES
APPEAR LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED WIDESPREAD RAIN.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT FROM THE QUIET WE HAVE EXPERIENCED
OVER THE LAST TWO OR SO WEEKS...TO A MORE ACTIVE AND COOLER
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR FOG ALREADY HAS DEVELOPED IN THE USUAL VALLEY LOW LYING AREAS
AND IS INCLUDED IN TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH PATCHY MVFR
ELSEWHERE. CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAKE ERIE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW. BAND OF SHOWERS
ACROSS MICHIGAN THIS MORNING CLOSER TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. MODELS
SHOWING RATHER WIDESPREAD COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
NOT WHOLLY CONVINCED OF THIS BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. VCSH REMAINS MOST PORTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY AT KFKL AND KDUJ.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300823
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
423 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK BOUNDARY WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE AREA TODAY. STILL HAVING A TOUGH TIME GETTING A HANDLE ON HOW
MUCH PRECIPITATION THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BE WITH THE MAIN 50H LOW WHICH WILL TRAIL BEHIND THE
FRONT AND MOVE INTO NE OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE NEVER REALLY GETS LINED UP AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE 50H LOW...BUT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGS BACK WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A DRY LAYER UP
TO AROUND 5000 FT THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY...MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR
SHOWERS TO REACH THE GROUND. WILL LEAVE IN CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. IF THE LOW LEVELS ARE ABLE TO
SATURATE TODAY THEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...COLD POOL ALOFT...WITH PASSING 50H...LOW MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT AN ISOLATED STORM COULD
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WEAKENS THIS EVENING. THE 50H LOW OPENS UP AND
WHATS LEFT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DRIFTS INTO EASTERN PA.

UPPER LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY WILL SWING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
EXITING 50H LOW SO WILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN
THE FAR EAST FOR A PORTION OF THE EVENING HOURS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW ON THURSDAY...
PROVIDING SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL SEEING SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY. LATEST NAM IS SLOWING EVERYTHING DOWN...GFS IS THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE AND THE 12Z ECMWF IS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. FRIDAY DOES
APPEAR LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED WIDESPREAD RAIN.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT FROM THE QUIET WE HAVE EXPERIENCED
OVER THE LAST TWO OR SO WEEKS...TO A MORE ACTIVE AND COOLER
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR FOG ALREADY HAS DEVELOPED IN THE USUAL VALLEY LOW LYING AREAS
AND IS INCLUDED IN TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH PATCHY MVFR
ELSEWHERE. CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAKE ERIE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW. BAND OF SHOWERS
ACROSS MICHIGAN THIS MORNING CLOSER TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. MODELS
SHOWING RATHER WIDESPREAD COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
NOT WHOLLY CONVINCED OF THIS BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. VCSH REMAINS MOST PORTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY AT KFKL AND KDUJ.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300823
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
423 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK BOUNDARY WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE AREA TODAY. STILL HAVING A TOUGH TIME GETTING A HANDLE ON HOW
MUCH PRECIPITATION THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BE WITH THE MAIN 50H LOW WHICH WILL TRAIL BEHIND THE
FRONT AND MOVE INTO NE OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE NEVER REALLY GETS LINED UP AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE 50H LOW...BUT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGS BACK WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A DRY LAYER UP
TO AROUND 5000 FT THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY...MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR
SHOWERS TO REACH THE GROUND. WILL LEAVE IN CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. IF THE LOW LEVELS ARE ABLE TO
SATURATE TODAY THEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...COLD POOL ALOFT...WITH PASSING 50H...LOW MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT AN ISOLATED STORM COULD
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WEAKENS THIS EVENING. THE 50H LOW OPENS UP AND
WHATS LEFT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DRIFTS INTO EASTERN PA.

UPPER LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY WILL SWING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
EXITING 50H LOW SO WILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN
THE FAR EAST FOR A PORTION OF THE EVENING HOURS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW ON THURSDAY...
PROVIDING SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL SEEING SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY. LATEST NAM IS SLOWING EVERYTHING DOWN...GFS IS THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE AND THE 12Z ECMWF IS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. FRIDAY DOES
APPEAR LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED WIDESPREAD RAIN.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT FROM THE QUIET WE HAVE EXPERIENCED
OVER THE LAST TWO OR SO WEEKS...TO A MORE ACTIVE AND COOLER
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR FOG ALREADY HAS DEVELOPED IN THE USUAL VALLEY LOW LYING AREAS
AND IS INCLUDED IN TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH PATCHY MVFR
ELSEWHERE. CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAKE ERIE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW. BAND OF SHOWERS
ACROSS MICHIGAN THIS MORNING CLOSER TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. MODELS
SHOWING RATHER WIDESPREAD COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
NOT WHOLLY CONVINCED OF THIS BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. VCSH REMAINS MOST PORTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY AT KFKL AND KDUJ.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300539
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
139 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PORTION OF FORECAST IS RIGHT IN LINE. WILL UPDATE TEMPS.

WEAK BOUNDARY WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE AREA TODAY. STILL HAVING A TOUGH TIME GETTING A HANDLE ON HOW
MUCH PRECIPITATION THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BE WITH THE MAIN 50H LOW WHICH WILL TRAIL BEHIND THE
FRONT AND MOVE INTO NE OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE NEVER REALLY GETS LINED UP AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE 50H LOW...BUT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGS BACK WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A DRY LAYER UP
TO AROUND 5000 FT THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY...MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR
SHOWERS TO REACH THE GROUND. WILL LEAVE IN CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. IF THE LOW LEVELS ARE ABLE TO
SATURATE TODAY THEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WEAKENS THIS EVENING. THE 50H LOW OPENS UP AND
WHATS LEFT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DRIFTS INTO EASTERN PA.

UPPER LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY WILL SWING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
EXITING 50H LOW SO WILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN
THE FAR EAST FOR A PORTION OF THE EVENING HOURS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW ON THURSDAY...
PROVIDING SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL SEEING SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY. LATEST NAM IS SLOWING EVERYTHING DOWN...GFS IS THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE AND THE 12Z ECMWF IS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. FRIDAY DOES
APPEAR LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED WIDESPREAD RAIN.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT FROM THE QUIET WE HAVE EXPERIENCED
OVER THE LAST TWO OR SO WEEKS...TO A MORE ACTIVE AND COOLER
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR FOG ALREADY HAS DEVELOPED IN THE USUAL VALLEY LOW LYING AREAS
AND IS INCLUDED IN TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH PATCHY MVFR
ELSEWHERE. CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAKE ERIE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW. BAND OF SHOWERS
ACROSS MICHIGAN THIS MORNING CLOSER TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. MODELS
SHOWING RATHER WIDESPREAD COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
NOT WHOLLY CONVINCED OF THIS BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. VCSH REMAINS MOST PORTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY AT KFKL AND KDUJ.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300539
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
139 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PORTION OF FORECAST IS RIGHT IN LINE. WILL UPDATE TEMPS.

WEAK BOUNDARY WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE AREA TODAY. STILL HAVING A TOUGH TIME GETTING A HANDLE ON HOW
MUCH PRECIPITATION THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BE WITH THE MAIN 50H LOW WHICH WILL TRAIL BEHIND THE
FRONT AND MOVE INTO NE OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE NEVER REALLY GETS LINED UP AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE 50H LOW...BUT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGS BACK WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A DRY LAYER UP
TO AROUND 5000 FT THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY...MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR
SHOWERS TO REACH THE GROUND. WILL LEAVE IN CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. IF THE LOW LEVELS ARE ABLE TO
SATURATE TODAY THEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WEAKENS THIS EVENING. THE 50H LOW OPENS UP AND
WHATS LEFT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DRIFTS INTO EASTERN PA.

UPPER LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY WILL SWING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
EXITING 50H LOW SO WILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN
THE FAR EAST FOR A PORTION OF THE EVENING HOURS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW ON THURSDAY...
PROVIDING SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL SEEING SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY. LATEST NAM IS SLOWING EVERYTHING DOWN...GFS IS THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE AND THE 12Z ECMWF IS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. FRIDAY DOES
APPEAR LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED WIDESPREAD RAIN.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT FROM THE QUIET WE HAVE EXPERIENCED
OVER THE LAST TWO OR SO WEEKS...TO A MORE ACTIVE AND COOLER
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR FOG ALREADY HAS DEVELOPED IN THE USUAL VALLEY LOW LYING AREAS
AND IS INCLUDED IN TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH PATCHY MVFR
ELSEWHERE. CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAKE ERIE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW. BAND OF SHOWERS
ACROSS MICHIGAN THIS MORNING CLOSER TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. MODELS
SHOWING RATHER WIDESPREAD COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
NOT WHOLLY CONVINCED OF THIS BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. VCSH REMAINS MOST PORTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY AT KFKL AND KDUJ.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300501 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
101 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PORTION OF FORECAST IS RIGHT IN LINE. WILL UPDATE TEMPS.

WEAK BOUNDARY WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE AREA TODAY. STILL HAVING A TOUGH TIME GETTING A HANDLE ON HOW
MUCH PRECIPITATION THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BE WITH THE MAIN 50H LOW WHICH WILL TRAIL BEHIND THE
FRONT AND MOVE INTO NE OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE NEVER REALLY GETS LINED UP AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE 50H LOW...BUT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGS BACK WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A DRY LAYER UP
TO AROUND 5000 FT THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY...MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR
SHOWERS TO REACH THE GROUND. WILL LEAVE IN CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. IF THE LOW LEVELS ARE ABLE TO
SATURATE TODAY THEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WEAKENS THIS EVENING. THE 50H LOW OPENS UP AND
WHATS LEFT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DRIFTS INTO EASTERN PA.

UPPER LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY WILL SWING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
EXITING 50H LOW SO WILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN
THE FAR EAST FOR A PORTION OF THE EVENING HOURS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW ON THURSDAY...
PROVIDING SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL SEEING SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY. LATEST NAM IS SLOWING EVERYTHING DOWN...GFS IS THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE AND THE 12Z ECMWF IS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. FRIDAY DOES
APPEAR LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED WIDESPREAD RAIN.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT FROM THE QUIET WE HAVE EXPERIENCED
OVER THE LAST TWO OR SO WEEKS...TO A MORE ACTIVE AND COOLER
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE ONLY BLEMISH ON VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO COME FROM FM SHALLOW PREDAWN FOG. SHOULD MID LVL
CLDINESS DVLP A FEW HRS QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED WITH THE ADVN OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHRTWV...THAT RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WL BE
PRECLUDED.

OTHERWISE...SCT SHWRS ARE EXPECTED TO DVLP WITH THE DISTURBANCE...BUT
RESTRICTION POSSIBILITY LKS TO BE LTD TO SOME MVFR VSBYS.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTION WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300501 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
101 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PORTION OF FORECAST IS RIGHT IN LINE. WILL UPDATE TEMPS.

WEAK BOUNDARY WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE AREA TODAY. STILL HAVING A TOUGH TIME GETTING A HANDLE ON HOW
MUCH PRECIPITATION THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BE WITH THE MAIN 50H LOW WHICH WILL TRAIL BEHIND THE
FRONT AND MOVE INTO NE OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE NEVER REALLY GETS LINED UP AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE 50H LOW...BUT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGS BACK WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A DRY LAYER UP
TO AROUND 5000 FT THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY...MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR
SHOWERS TO REACH THE GROUND. WILL LEAVE IN CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. IF THE LOW LEVELS ARE ABLE TO
SATURATE TODAY THEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WEAKENS THIS EVENING. THE 50H LOW OPENS UP AND
WHATS LEFT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DRIFTS INTO EASTERN PA.

UPPER LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY WILL SWING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
EXITING 50H LOW SO WILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN
THE FAR EAST FOR A PORTION OF THE EVENING HOURS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW ON THURSDAY...
PROVIDING SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL SEEING SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY. LATEST NAM IS SLOWING EVERYTHING DOWN...GFS IS THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE AND THE 12Z ECMWF IS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. FRIDAY DOES
APPEAR LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED WIDESPREAD RAIN.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT FROM THE QUIET WE HAVE EXPERIENCED
OVER THE LAST TWO OR SO WEEKS...TO A MORE ACTIVE AND COOLER
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE ONLY BLEMISH ON VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO COME FROM FM SHALLOW PREDAWN FOG. SHOULD MID LVL
CLDINESS DVLP A FEW HRS QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED WITH THE ADVN OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHRTWV...THAT RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WL BE
PRECLUDED.

OTHERWISE...SCT SHWRS ARE EXPECTED TO DVLP WITH THE DISTURBANCE...BUT
RESTRICTION POSSIBILITY LKS TO BE LTD TO SOME MVFR VSBYS.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTION WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300145
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
945 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND TEMPS BASED ON STLT TRENDS/SFC OBS FOR THE
LT EVE UPDT. PREVIOUS DISC...DRY WEA IS EXPD TNGT AS A WK MID/UPR
TROF EXITS. THE NXT ADVNG SHRTWV WL MOVE ACRS THE GT LKS RGN TUE
WITH SCT SHWRS. LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND THE RECENT DRY PATTERN
SHOULD HELP LMT PCPN COVG...SO MAINTAINED ONLY CHC POPS ATTM.
LATEST MDL PROGS SHOW VRY LTL INSTBY SO REMOVED TSTM MENTION FM
THE FCST. TEMPS WL CONT A FEW DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS MORE OR LESS AGREE ON FRONTAL TIMING TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
BOUNDARY NEAR OR THROUGH PIT BY 00Z. WITH CONTINUING FROPA...WILL
KEEP FADING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH THE LIMITED
MOISTURE...LIKELY TOO LITTLE TO TAKE MUCH ADVANTAGE OF THE ARRIVAL
OF UPPER CLOSED LOW DURING THE NIGHT. HAVE DRY POPS BY SUNRISE ON
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE SOME PATCHES OF LOW CLOUD FORM UP DURING THE
NIGHT...WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP. BLENDED MOS GUIDANCE
INTO PREVIOUS MIN TEMP GRID TO NUDGE VALUES UP A DEGREE OR TWO.

AS HINTED AT BY PREVIOUS SHIFT...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED A MINIMAL POP
FOR SHRA TO THE EASTERN RIDGES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  UPPER LOW
ALONG WITH ITS COLD POOL ALOFT WILL STILL BE EXITING DURING TIME OF
PEAK HEATING.  WHILE THERE IS ENOUGH MIDLEVEL WARM AIR TO PREVENT
SHRA FORMATION FROM PIT ON WEST...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE CAPE PROFILE FOR LOCATIONS LIKE DUJ AND LBE. TO THE
WEST...ANY MORNING LOW CLOUDS WOULD LIFT INTO SCT CU ONLY.  USED NAM
H850 TEMPS TO CONSTRUCT MAX TEMP GRID...ENDING UP WITH VALUES CLOSE
TO MOS.

ONCE UPPER LOW EXITS...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND H500 RIDGING
BUILD IN...GIVING US DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
MAY SEE A FEW MORE CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN RIDGES THAN THE WEST
GIVEN SOME LIGHT EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW.  TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ECMWF COMING A LITTLE MORE IN LINE WITH GFS AND ENSEMBLES ON TIMING
OF MORE SIGNIFICANT FROPA ON FRIDAY.  GIVEN INCREASED
CONFIDENCE...BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY AND ALSO INSERTED A CHANCE OF
THUNDER WITH THE VIGOROUS NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. SOME DISAGREEMENT
THEREAFTER WHETHER ANOTHER CLOSED LOW SINKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
WILL RIDE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FROM SATURDAY ON FOR NOW. IN
ANY CASE...MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE ONLY BLEMISH ON VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO COME FROM FM SHALLOW PREDAWN FOG. SHOULD MID LVL
CLDINESS DVLP A FEW HRS QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED WITH THE ADVN OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHRTWV...THAT RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WL BE
PRECLUDED.

OTHERWISE...SCT SHWRS ARE EXPECTED TO DVLP WITH THE DISTURBANCE...BUT
RESTRICTION POSSIBILITY LKS TO BE LTD TO SOME MVFR VSBYS.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTION WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/15






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300145
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
945 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND TEMPS BASED ON STLT TRENDS/SFC OBS FOR THE
LT EVE UPDT. PREVIOUS DISC...DRY WEA IS EXPD TNGT AS A WK MID/UPR
TROF EXITS. THE NXT ADVNG SHRTWV WL MOVE ACRS THE GT LKS RGN TUE
WITH SCT SHWRS. LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND THE RECENT DRY PATTERN
SHOULD HELP LMT PCPN COVG...SO MAINTAINED ONLY CHC POPS ATTM.
LATEST MDL PROGS SHOW VRY LTL INSTBY SO REMOVED TSTM MENTION FM
THE FCST. TEMPS WL CONT A FEW DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS MORE OR LESS AGREE ON FRONTAL TIMING TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
BOUNDARY NEAR OR THROUGH PIT BY 00Z. WITH CONTINUING FROPA...WILL
KEEP FADING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH THE LIMITED
MOISTURE...LIKELY TOO LITTLE TO TAKE MUCH ADVANTAGE OF THE ARRIVAL
OF UPPER CLOSED LOW DURING THE NIGHT. HAVE DRY POPS BY SUNRISE ON
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE SOME PATCHES OF LOW CLOUD FORM UP DURING THE
NIGHT...WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP. BLENDED MOS GUIDANCE
INTO PREVIOUS MIN TEMP GRID TO NUDGE VALUES UP A DEGREE OR TWO.

AS HINTED AT BY PREVIOUS SHIFT...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED A MINIMAL POP
FOR SHRA TO THE EASTERN RIDGES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  UPPER LOW
ALONG WITH ITS COLD POOL ALOFT WILL STILL BE EXITING DURING TIME OF
PEAK HEATING.  WHILE THERE IS ENOUGH MIDLEVEL WARM AIR TO PREVENT
SHRA FORMATION FROM PIT ON WEST...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE CAPE PROFILE FOR LOCATIONS LIKE DUJ AND LBE. TO THE
WEST...ANY MORNING LOW CLOUDS WOULD LIFT INTO SCT CU ONLY.  USED NAM
H850 TEMPS TO CONSTRUCT MAX TEMP GRID...ENDING UP WITH VALUES CLOSE
TO MOS.

ONCE UPPER LOW EXITS...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND H500 RIDGING
BUILD IN...GIVING US DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
MAY SEE A FEW MORE CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN RIDGES THAN THE WEST
GIVEN SOME LIGHT EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW.  TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ECMWF COMING A LITTLE MORE IN LINE WITH GFS AND ENSEMBLES ON TIMING
OF MORE SIGNIFICANT FROPA ON FRIDAY.  GIVEN INCREASED
CONFIDENCE...BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY AND ALSO INSERTED A CHANCE OF
THUNDER WITH THE VIGOROUS NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. SOME DISAGREEMENT
THEREAFTER WHETHER ANOTHER CLOSED LOW SINKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
WILL RIDE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FROM SATURDAY ON FOR NOW. IN
ANY CASE...MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE ONLY BLEMISH ON VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO COME FROM FM SHALLOW PREDAWN FOG. SHOULD MID LVL
CLDINESS DVLP A FEW HRS QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED WITH THE ADVN OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHRTWV...THAT RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WL BE
PRECLUDED.

OTHERWISE...SCT SHWRS ARE EXPECTED TO DVLP WITH THE DISTURBANCE...BUT
RESTRICTION POSSIBILITY LKS TO BE LTD TO SOME MVFR VSBYS.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTION WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/15







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 292339
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
739 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY WEA IS EXPD TNGT AS A WK MID/UPR TROF EXITS. THE NXT ADVNG
SHRTWV WL MOVE ACRS THE GT LKS RGN TUE WITH SCT SHWRS. LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE AND THE RECENT DRY PATTERN SHOULD HELP LMT PCPN
COVG...SO MAINTAINED ONLY CHC POPS ATTM. LATEST MDL PROGS SHOW VRY
LTL INSTBY SO REMOVED TSTM MENTION FM THE FCST. TEMPS WL CONT A
FEW DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS MORE OR LESS AGREE ON FRONTAL TIMING TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
BOUNDARY NEAR OR THROUGH PIT BY 00Z. WITH CONTINUING FROPA...WILL
KEEP FADING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH THE LIMITED
MOISTURE...LIKELY TOO LITTLE TO TAKE MUCH ADVANTAGE OF THE ARRIVAL
OF UPPER CLOSED LOW DURING THE NIGHT. HAVE DRY POPS BY SUNRISE ON
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE SOME PATCHES OF LOW CLOUD FORM UP DURING THE
NIGHT...WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP. BLENDED MOS GUIDANCE
INTO PREVIOUS MIN TEMP GRID TO NUDGE VALUES UP A DEGREE OR TWO.

AS HINTED AT BY PREVIOUS SHIFT...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED A MINIMAL POP
FOR SHRA TO THE EASTERN RIDGES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  UPPER LOW
ALONG WITH ITS COLD POOL ALOFT WILL STILL BE EXITING DURING TIME OF
PEAK HEATING.  WHILE THERE IS ENOUGH MIDLEVEL WARM AIR TO PREVENT
SHRA FORMATION FROM PIT ON WEST...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE CAPE PROFILE FOR LOCATIONS LIKE DUJ AND LBE. TO THE
WEST...ANY MORNING LOW CLOUDS WOULD LIFT INTO SCT CU ONLY.  USED NAM
H850 TEMPS TO CONSTRUCT MAX TEMP GRID...ENDING UP WITH VALUES CLOSE
TO MOS.

ONCE UPPER LOW EXITS...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND H500 RIDGING
BUILD IN...GIVING US DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
MAY SEE A FEW MORE CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN RIDGES THAN THE WEST
GIVEN SOME LIGHT EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW.  TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ECMWF COMING A LITTLE MORE IN LINE WITH GFS AND ENSEMBLES ON TIMING
OF MORE SIGNIFICANT FROPA ON FRIDAY.  GIVEN INCREASED
CONFIDENCE...BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY AND ALSO INSERTED A CHANCE OF
THUNDER WITH THE VIGOROUS NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. SOME DISAGREEMENT
THEREAFTER WHETHER ANOTHER CLOSED LOW SINKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
WILL RIDE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FROM SATURDAY ON FOR NOW. IN
ANY CASE...MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE ONLY BLEMISH ON VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO COME FROM FM SHALLOW PREDAWN FOG. SHOULD MID LVL
CLDINESS DVLP A FEW HRS QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED WITH THE ADVN OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHRTWV...THAT RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WL BE
PRECLUDED.

OTHERWISE...SCT SHWRS ARE EXPECTED TO DVLP WITH THE DISTURBANCE...BUT
RESTRICTION POSSIBILITY LKS TO BE LTD TO SOME MVFR VSBYS.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTION WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/15





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 292339
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
739 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY WEA IS EXPD TNGT AS A WK MID/UPR TROF EXITS. THE NXT ADVNG
SHRTWV WL MOVE ACRS THE GT LKS RGN TUE WITH SCT SHWRS. LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE AND THE RECENT DRY PATTERN SHOULD HELP LMT PCPN
COVG...SO MAINTAINED ONLY CHC POPS ATTM. LATEST MDL PROGS SHOW VRY
LTL INSTBY SO REMOVED TSTM MENTION FM THE FCST. TEMPS WL CONT A
FEW DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS MORE OR LESS AGREE ON FRONTAL TIMING TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
BOUNDARY NEAR OR THROUGH PIT BY 00Z. WITH CONTINUING FROPA...WILL
KEEP FADING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH THE LIMITED
MOISTURE...LIKELY TOO LITTLE TO TAKE MUCH ADVANTAGE OF THE ARRIVAL
OF UPPER CLOSED LOW DURING THE NIGHT. HAVE DRY POPS BY SUNRISE ON
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE SOME PATCHES OF LOW CLOUD FORM UP DURING THE
NIGHT...WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP. BLENDED MOS GUIDANCE
INTO PREVIOUS MIN TEMP GRID TO NUDGE VALUES UP A DEGREE OR TWO.

AS HINTED AT BY PREVIOUS SHIFT...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED A MINIMAL POP
FOR SHRA TO THE EASTERN RIDGES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  UPPER LOW
ALONG WITH ITS COLD POOL ALOFT WILL STILL BE EXITING DURING TIME OF
PEAK HEATING.  WHILE THERE IS ENOUGH MIDLEVEL WARM AIR TO PREVENT
SHRA FORMATION FROM PIT ON WEST...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE CAPE PROFILE FOR LOCATIONS LIKE DUJ AND LBE. TO THE
WEST...ANY MORNING LOW CLOUDS WOULD LIFT INTO SCT CU ONLY.  USED NAM
H850 TEMPS TO CONSTRUCT MAX TEMP GRID...ENDING UP WITH VALUES CLOSE
TO MOS.

ONCE UPPER LOW EXITS...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND H500 RIDGING
BUILD IN...GIVING US DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
MAY SEE A FEW MORE CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN RIDGES THAN THE WEST
GIVEN SOME LIGHT EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW.  TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ECMWF COMING A LITTLE MORE IN LINE WITH GFS AND ENSEMBLES ON TIMING
OF MORE SIGNIFICANT FROPA ON FRIDAY.  GIVEN INCREASED
CONFIDENCE...BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY AND ALSO INSERTED A CHANCE OF
THUNDER WITH THE VIGOROUS NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. SOME DISAGREEMENT
THEREAFTER WHETHER ANOTHER CLOSED LOW SINKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
WILL RIDE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FROM SATURDAY ON FOR NOW. IN
ANY CASE...MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE ONLY BLEMISH ON VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO COME FROM FM SHALLOW PREDAWN FOG. SHOULD MID LVL
CLDINESS DVLP A FEW HRS QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED WITH THE ADVN OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHRTWV...THAT RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WL BE
PRECLUDED.

OTHERWISE...SCT SHWRS ARE EXPECTED TO DVLP WITH THE DISTURBANCE...BUT
RESTRICTION POSSIBILITY LKS TO BE LTD TO SOME MVFR VSBYS.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTION WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/15






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 292036
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
436 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID AND UPR TROFG HAS SPARKED ISOLD SHWRS ACRS ERN OH AND WV.
THESE SHOULD QUICKLY DSPT BY SUNSET AS SPPRT DMNSHS. THE NXT ADVNG
SHRTWV WL MOVE ACRS THE GT LKS RGN TUE WITH ADDNL SHWRS PSBL.
INSTBY IS MINIMAL BUT WL MAINTAIN AN ISOLD TSTM MENTION MAINLY N
OF PIT WHERE BETTER UPR SPPRT IS PROGGED. WITH THE RECENT DRY
PATTERN...IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO GET MUCH PCPN COVG SO MAINTAINED
ONLY CHC POPS ATTM. TEMPS WL CONT A FEW DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS MORE OR LESS AGREE ON FRONTAL TIMING TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
BOUNDARY NEAR OR THROUGH PIT BY 00Z. WITH CONTINUING FROPA...WILL
KEEP FADING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH THE LIMITED
MOISTURE...LIKELY TOO LITTLE TO TAKE MUCH ADVANTAGE OF THE ARRIVAL
OF UPPER CLOSED LOW DURING THE NIGHT. HAVE DRY POPS BY SUNRISE ON
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE SOME PATCHES OF LOW CLOUD FORM UP DURING THE
NIGHT...WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP. BLENDED MOS GUIDANCE
INTO PREVIOUS MIN TEMP GRID TO NUDGE VALUES UP A DEGREE OR TWO.

AS HINTED AT BY PREVIOUS SHIFT...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED A MINIMAL POP
FOR SHRA TO THE EASTERN RIDGES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  UPPER LOW
ALONG WITH ITS COLD POOL ALOFT WILL STILL BE EXITING DURING TIME OF
PEAK HEATING.  WHILE THERE IS ENOUGH MIDLEVEL WARM AIR TO PREVENT
SHRA FORMATION FROM PIT ON WEST...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE CAPE PROFILE FOR LOCATIONS LIKE DUJ AND LBE. TO THE
WEST...ANY MORNING LOW CLOUDS WOULD LIFT INTO SCT CU ONLY.  USED NAM
H850 TEMPS TO CONSTRUCT MAX TEMP GRID...ENDING UP WITH VALUES CLOSE
TO MOS.

ONCE UPPER LOW EXITS...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND H500 RIDGING
BUILD IN...GIVING US DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
MAY SEE A FEW MORE CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN RIDGES THAN THE WEST
GIVEN SOME LIGHT EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW.  TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN ABOVE NORMAL. CL

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ECMWF COMING A LITTLE MORE IN LINE WITH GFS AND ENSEMBLES ON TIMING
OF MORE SIGNIFICANT FROPA ON FRIDAY.  GIVEN INCREASED
CONFIDENCE...BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY AND ALSO INSERTED A CHANCE OF
THUNDER WITH THE VIGOROUS NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. SOME DISAGREEMENT
THEREAFTER WHETHER ANOTHER CLOSED LOW SINKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
WILL RIDE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FROM SATURDAY ON FOR NOW. IN
ANY CASE...MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND. CL

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF TERMINALS THROUGH
THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. HOWEVER...HAVE GONE WITH SOMEWHAT OF A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST...WITH MVFR/IFR MORNING FOG IN SEVERAL
LOCATIONS. AFTER MORNING FOG DISSIPATES...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TOMORROW...WITH GREATER COVERAGE FARTHER TO THE NORTH. AT
THIS POINT...HAVE GONE WITH VCSH AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WDSPRD RSTRNS WL RTN WITH A FRI CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291859
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
259 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A WEAK SYSTEM ON TUESDAY...WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY...WHEN THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN
ARRIVES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BULK OF CIRRUS SHIELD IS STRADDLING THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
IS MOSTLY COVERED WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS. THINK THAT AT LEAST SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT YET
ANOTHER MORNING OF VALLEY FOG. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GOOD
PORTION OF THE REGION RECEIVING RAINFALL TOMORROW...BUT STILL THINK
THAT CONSIDERING THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE IN MODEL
PROFILES...PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS INDICATED.
THAT BEING SAID...HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL NOT CARRY ANY LIKELY POPS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
ALSO SHOW A SMALL AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...AND HAVE ALSO ADDED AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS MORE OR LESS AGREE ON FRONTAL TIMING TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
BOUNDARY NEAR OR THROUGH PIT BY 00Z. WITH CONTINUING FROPA...WILL
KEEP FADING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH THE LIMITED
MOISTURE...LIKELY TOO LITTLE TO TAKE MUCH ADVANTAGE OF THE ARRIVAL
OF UPPER CLOSED LOW DURING THE NIGHT. HAVE DRY POPS BY SUNRISE ON
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE SOME PATCHES OF LOW CLOUD FORM UP DURING THE
NIGHT...WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP. BLENDED MOS GUIDANCE
INTO PREVIOUS MIN TEMP GRID TO NUDGE VALUES UP A DEGREE OR TWO.

AS HINTED AT BY PREVIOUS SHIFT...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED A MINIMAL POP
FOR SHRA TO THE EASTERN RIDGES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  UPPER LOW
ALONG WITH ITS COLD POOL ALOFT WILL STILL BE EXITING DURING TIME OF
PEAK HEATING.  WHILE THERE IS ENOUGH MIDLEVEL WARM AIR TO PREVENT
SHRA FORMATION FROM PIT ON WEST...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE CAPE PROFILE FOR LOCATIONS LIKE DUJ AND LBE. TO THE
WEST...ANY MORNING LOW CLOUDS WOULD LIFT INTO SCT CU ONLY.  USED NAM
H850 TEMPS TO CONSTRUCT MAX TEMP GRID...ENDING UP WITH VALUES CLOSE
TO MOS.

ONCE UPPER LOW EXITS...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND H500 RIDGING
BUILD IN...GIVING US DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
MAY SEE A FEW MORE CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN RIDGES THAN THE WEST
GIVEN SOME LIGHT EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW.  TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN ABOVE NORMAL. CL

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ECMWF COMING A LITTLE MORE IN LINE WITH GFS AND ENSEMBLES ON TIMING
OF MORE SIGNIFICANT FROPA ON FRIDAY.  GIVEN INCREASED
CONFIDENCE...BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY AND ALSO INSERTED A CHANCE OF
THUNDER WITH THE VIGOROUS NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. SOME DISAGREEMENT
THEREAFTER WHETHER ANOTHER CLOSED LOW SINKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
WILL RIDE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FROM SATURDAY ON FOR NOW. IN
ANY CASE...MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND. CL


&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF TERMINALS THROUGH
THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. HOWEVER...HAVE GONE WITH SOMEWHAT OF A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST...WITH MVFR/IFR MORNING FOG IN SEVERAL
LOCATIONS. AFTER MORNING FOG DISSIPATES...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TOMORROW...WITH GREATER COVERAGE FARTHER TO THE NORTH. AT
THIS POINT...HAVE GONE WITH VCSH AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WDSPRD RSTRNS WL RTN WITH A FRI CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291859
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
259 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A WEAK SYSTEM ON TUESDAY...WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY...WHEN THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN
ARRIVES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BULK OF CIRRUS SHIELD IS STRADDLING THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
IS MOSTLY COVERED WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS. THINK THAT AT LEAST SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT YET
ANOTHER MORNING OF VALLEY FOG. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GOOD
PORTION OF THE REGION RECEIVING RAINFALL TOMORROW...BUT STILL THINK
THAT CONSIDERING THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE IN MODEL
PROFILES...PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS INDICATED.
THAT BEING SAID...HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL NOT CARRY ANY LIKELY POPS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
ALSO SHOW A SMALL AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...AND HAVE ALSO ADDED AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS MORE OR LESS AGREE ON FRONTAL TIMING TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
BOUNDARY NEAR OR THROUGH PIT BY 00Z. WITH CONTINUING FROPA...WILL
KEEP FADING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH THE LIMITED
MOISTURE...LIKELY TOO LITTLE TO TAKE MUCH ADVANTAGE OF THE ARRIVAL
OF UPPER CLOSED LOW DURING THE NIGHT. HAVE DRY POPS BY SUNRISE ON
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE SOME PATCHES OF LOW CLOUD FORM UP DURING THE
NIGHT...WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP. BLENDED MOS GUIDANCE
INTO PREVIOUS MIN TEMP GRID TO NUDGE VALUES UP A DEGREE OR TWO.

AS HINTED AT BY PREVIOUS SHIFT...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED A MINIMAL POP
FOR SHRA TO THE EASTERN RIDGES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  UPPER LOW
ALONG WITH ITS COLD POOL ALOFT WILL STILL BE EXITING DURING TIME OF
PEAK HEATING.  WHILE THERE IS ENOUGH MIDLEVEL WARM AIR TO PREVENT
SHRA FORMATION FROM PIT ON WEST...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE CAPE PROFILE FOR LOCATIONS LIKE DUJ AND LBE. TO THE
WEST...ANY MORNING LOW CLOUDS WOULD LIFT INTO SCT CU ONLY.  USED NAM
H850 TEMPS TO CONSTRUCT MAX TEMP GRID...ENDING UP WITH VALUES CLOSE
TO MOS.

ONCE UPPER LOW EXITS...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND H500 RIDGING
BUILD IN...GIVING US DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
MAY SEE A FEW MORE CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN RIDGES THAN THE WEST
GIVEN SOME LIGHT EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW.  TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN ABOVE NORMAL. CL

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ECMWF COMING A LITTLE MORE IN LINE WITH GFS AND ENSEMBLES ON TIMING
OF MORE SIGNIFICANT FROPA ON FRIDAY.  GIVEN INCREASED
CONFIDENCE...BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY AND ALSO INSERTED A CHANCE OF
THUNDER WITH THE VIGOROUS NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. SOME DISAGREEMENT
THEREAFTER WHETHER ANOTHER CLOSED LOW SINKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
WILL RIDE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FROM SATURDAY ON FOR NOW. IN
ANY CASE...MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND. CL


&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF TERMINALS THROUGH
THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. HOWEVER...HAVE GONE WITH SOMEWHAT OF A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST...WITH MVFR/IFR MORNING FOG IN SEVERAL
LOCATIONS. AFTER MORNING FOG DISSIPATES...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TOMORROW...WITH GREATER COVERAGE FARTHER TO THE NORTH. AT
THIS POINT...HAVE GONE WITH VCSH AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WDSPRD RSTRNS WL RTN WITH A FRI CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291613
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1213 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH NOON UPDATE...MADE ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO SKY COVER FOR THE
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST.
CIRRUS SHIELD ACROSS THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA IS
SLOWLY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST...KEEPING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
LOWER IN THOSE LOCATIONS. STILL...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COOL FRONT WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY. PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE A CLOSED 50H LOW WHICH MOVING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY MORNING INTO NORTHWEST PA TUESDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE
PRODUCING SOME QPF ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
REMAINS LIMITED. ADDITIONALLY...THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN
AS IT DRIFTS THROUGH. WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST OF LOW
CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHC POPS TUESDAY AFT/EVE.

UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. IT IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A SHOWER COULD POP OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SHOWING AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY SWINGING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING 50H LOW
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO DEVELOP A SHOWER OR TWO. DEEP MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING...SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DRY AND WARM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
FIRST REAL SYSTEM TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A MUCH NEEDED SHOT AT
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EVENTUALLY COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CUMULUS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...WITH ANOTHER POSSIBILITY
FOR FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WDSPRD RSTRNS WL RTN WITH A FRI CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291613
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1213 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH NOON UPDATE...MADE ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO SKY COVER FOR THE
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST.
CIRRUS SHIELD ACROSS THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA IS
SLOWLY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST...KEEPING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
LOWER IN THOSE LOCATIONS. STILL...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COOL FRONT WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY. PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE A CLOSED 50H LOW WHICH MOVING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY MORNING INTO NORTHWEST PA TUESDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE
PRODUCING SOME QPF ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
REMAINS LIMITED. ADDITIONALLY...THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN
AS IT DRIFTS THROUGH. WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST OF LOW
CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHC POPS TUESDAY AFT/EVE.

UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. IT IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A SHOWER COULD POP OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SHOWING AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY SWINGING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING 50H LOW
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO DEVELOP A SHOWER OR TWO. DEEP MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING...SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DRY AND WARM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
FIRST REAL SYSTEM TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A MUCH NEEDED SHOT AT
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EVENTUALLY COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CUMULUS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...WITH ANOTHER POSSIBILITY
FOR FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WDSPRD RSTRNS WL RTN WITH A FRI CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291352
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
952 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH 945AM UPDATE...BIGGEST CHANGE MADE WAS TO DIMINISH CLOUD
COVER AWAY FROM THE CIRRUS SHIELD DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT
INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE RIDGES. GRADIENT IN CLOUD COVER
SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH SOME CUMULUS
DEVELOPING AWAY FROM THE CIRRUS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN GOOD
SHAPE...AND STILL DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY TODAY. A SHIELD OF CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COOL FRONT WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY. PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE A CLOSED 50H LOW WHICH MOVING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY MORNING INTO NORTHWEST PA TUESDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE
PRODUCING SOME QPF ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
REMAINS LIMITED. ADDITIONALLY...THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN
AS IT DRIFTS THROUGH. WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST OF LOW
CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHC POPS TUESDAY AFT/EVE.

UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. IT IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A SHOWER COULD POP OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SHOWING AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY SWINGING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING 50H LOW
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO DEVELOP A SHOWER OR TWO. DEEP MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING...SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DRY AND WARM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
FIRST REAL SYSTEM TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A MUCH NEEDED SHOT AT
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EVENTUALLY COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF MID MORNING...RESTRICTIONS REMAIN AT SEVERAL TERMINALS DUE
TO LOCALIZED FOG. ALL FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY NOON...WITH VFR
CUMULUS EXPECTED AFTERWARDS.

AN APCHG MD/UPR LVL TROF WL BRING CI TO AREA PORTS TNGT...WITH SCT
SC/CU MON. VFR IS EXPD TO CONT...THOUGH SOME PTCHY MVFR/IFR FG IS
EXPD ERLY MON MRNG N AND W OF PIT.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WDSPRD RSTRNS WL RTN WITH A FRI CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291352
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
952 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH 945AM UPDATE...BIGGEST CHANGE MADE WAS TO DIMINISH CLOUD
COVER AWAY FROM THE CIRRUS SHIELD DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT
INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE RIDGES. GRADIENT IN CLOUD COVER
SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH SOME CUMULUS
DEVELOPING AWAY FROM THE CIRRUS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN GOOD
SHAPE...AND STILL DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY TODAY. A SHIELD OF CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COOL FRONT WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY. PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE A CLOSED 50H LOW WHICH MOVING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY MORNING INTO NORTHWEST PA TUESDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE
PRODUCING SOME QPF ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
REMAINS LIMITED. ADDITIONALLY...THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN
AS IT DRIFTS THROUGH. WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST OF LOW
CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHC POPS TUESDAY AFT/EVE.

UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. IT IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A SHOWER COULD POP OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SHOWING AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY SWINGING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING 50H LOW
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO DEVELOP A SHOWER OR TWO. DEEP MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING...SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DRY AND WARM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
FIRST REAL SYSTEM TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A MUCH NEEDED SHOT AT
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EVENTUALLY COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF MID MORNING...RESTRICTIONS REMAIN AT SEVERAL TERMINALS DUE
TO LOCALIZED FOG. ALL FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY NOON...WITH VFR
CUMULUS EXPECTED AFTERWARDS.

AN APCHG MD/UPR LVL TROF WL BRING CI TO AREA PORTS TNGT...WITH SCT
SC/CU MON. VFR IS EXPD TO CONT...THOUGH SOME PTCHY MVFR/IFR FG IS
EXPD ERLY MON MRNG N AND W OF PIT.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WDSPRD RSTRNS WL RTN WITH A FRI CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities