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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301029
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
629 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES TODAY AS ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE
TOWARD NORMAL BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BEGINNING TO INCREASE SPATIALLY
AND IN INTENSITY OVER THE SRN SHORES OF LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING.
THESE SHOWERS ARE IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE TROF DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES CURRENTLY. THIS QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AS IT PIVOTS
AROUND THE EXPANSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL RESIDING NEAR JAMES
BAY. STEEPENING LLVL LAPSE RATES AND DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
WILL HELP FUEL CONVECTIVE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.

WHILE INSTABILITY IS STILL PRETTY LACKLUSTER WITH BUFR PROFILES SHOWING
TALL SKINNY CAPE...CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOWING VIGOROUS ENOUGH
CONVECTION TO GENERATE LIGHTNING. LIGHTNING COUNTS SHOULD
GENERALLY DECREASE AS THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVE FURTHER
INLAND AND ENCROACH THE CWA...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A COUPLE OF
RUMBLES OVER OUR AREA. WILL INCLUDE THE MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.

SHOWER CHANCES WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE
PULLS AWAY TOWARDS SUNDOWN. SEVERAL HI-RES MODELS INDICATING A
SECONDARY WAVE OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT INTO THURS MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS SWINGING THROUGH.
THIS FEATURE IS CORROBORATED AMONG THE MORE BROAD SOLNS OF THE 00Z
NAM AND GFS. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE UPPER
LOW ACROSS OUR NORTH...THIS WILL BE THE AREA THAT IS THE FOCUS OF
SLGT AND CHC POPS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE WILL PIVOT EAST AND WEAKEN AS THE MAIN JET CORE
MIGRATES FURTHER BEYOND INFLECTION POINT OF THE FRONT SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AS A SECOND WEAK SHORTWAVE TRANSITIONS THROUGH THE FLOW
THURSDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD ONLY
IMPACT NORTHERN ZONES AS THE LONGWAVE LIFTS TO THE NORTH.

FLOW ALOFT WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND ALLOW FOR DEEPER
MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTH. THIS ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING
ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE RIDGES AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THERE WILL BE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT
RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE NOT SHOWN THE BEST CONTINUITY IN REGARDS TO
TIMING THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO PASS THROUGH AND HELP SUPPORT
ACTIVITY SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS UNTIL GUIDANCE SHOWS BETTER
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THE FEATURE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST BY NEXT MONDAY AS OPERATIONAL RUNS SHOW THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN BECOMING MORE ZONAL...BUT REMAIN CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC IN
FINALLY BREAKING THE PATTERN AS MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
INCONSISTENT IN PROGGING THIS OVER THE PAST 10 OPERATIONAL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
IS INCREASING CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING. GENERALLY CONDITIONS
SHOULD STAY WELL WITHIN VFR FOR MOST PORTS ON WEDNESDAY. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE AT FKL AND DUJ WHERE MVFR CIGS WITH SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY END THIS EVENING...BUT ANOTHER
WEAK WAVE PASSES LATE WEDS NIGHT/THURS MORN WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SHOWER CHANCES.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301029
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
629 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES TODAY AS ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE
TOWARD NORMAL BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BEGINNING TO INCREASE SPATIALLY
AND IN INTENSITY OVER THE SRN SHORES OF LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING.
THESE SHOWERS ARE IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE TROF DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES CURRENTLY. THIS QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AS IT PIVOTS
AROUND THE EXPANSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL RESIDING NEAR JAMES
BAY. STEEPENING LLVL LAPSE RATES AND DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
WILL HELP FUEL CONVECTIVE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.

WHILE INSTABILITY IS STILL PRETTY LACKLUSTER WITH BUFR PROFILES SHOWING
TALL SKINNY CAPE...CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOWING VIGOROUS ENOUGH
CONVECTION TO GENERATE LIGHTNING. LIGHTNING COUNTS SHOULD
GENERALLY DECREASE AS THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVE FURTHER
INLAND AND ENCROACH THE CWA...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A COUPLE OF
RUMBLES OVER OUR AREA. WILL INCLUDE THE MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.

SHOWER CHANCES WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE
PULLS AWAY TOWARDS SUNDOWN. SEVERAL HI-RES MODELS INDICATING A
SECONDARY WAVE OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT INTO THURS MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS SWINGING THROUGH.
THIS FEATURE IS CORROBORATED AMONG THE MORE BROAD SOLNS OF THE 00Z
NAM AND GFS. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE UPPER
LOW ACROSS OUR NORTH...THIS WILL BE THE AREA THAT IS THE FOCUS OF
SLGT AND CHC POPS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE WILL PIVOT EAST AND WEAKEN AS THE MAIN JET CORE
MIGRATES FURTHER BEYOND INFLECTION POINT OF THE FRONT SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AS A SECOND WEAK SHORTWAVE TRANSITIONS THROUGH THE FLOW
THURSDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD ONLY
IMPACT NORTHERN ZONES AS THE LONGWAVE LIFTS TO THE NORTH.

FLOW ALOFT WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND ALLOW FOR DEEPER
MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTH. THIS ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING
ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE RIDGES AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THERE WILL BE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT
RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE NOT SHOWN THE BEST CONTINUITY IN REGARDS TO
TIMING THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO PASS THROUGH AND HELP SUPPORT
ACTIVITY SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS UNTIL GUIDANCE SHOWS BETTER
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THE FEATURE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST BY NEXT MONDAY AS OPERATIONAL RUNS SHOW THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN BECOMING MORE ZONAL...BUT REMAIN CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC IN
FINALLY BREAKING THE PATTERN AS MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
INCONSISTENT IN PROGGING THIS OVER THE PAST 10 OPERATIONAL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
IS INCREASING CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING. GENERALLY CONDITIONS
SHOULD STAY WELL WITHIN VFR FOR MOST PORTS ON WEDNESDAY. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE AT FKL AND DUJ WHERE MVFR CIGS WITH SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY END THIS EVENING...BUT ANOTHER
WEAK WAVE PASSES LATE WEDS NIGHT/THURS MORN WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SHOWER CHANCES.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300832
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
432 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES TODAY AS ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE
TOWARD NORMAL BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LINGER NORTH OF THE AREA AS OF ABOUT 06Z.
THESE DEVELOPED EARLIER ALONG THE NOSE OF A RELATIVELY WEAK H5
JET MAX. AS WE PROGRESS FURTHER INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THESE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE WITH LACK OF SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET DIMINISHING. THUS...HAVE
DECREASED POPS NORTH OF I80 OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PERSISTING AS MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM
THE NW ARE DISSIPATING AS THEY ENCROACH. LLVL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
REMAIN SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO CURTAIL ANY WIDESPREAD FOG
DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER A FEW SHELTERED AREAS COULD SEE SOME PATCHY
FOG THIS MORNING.

CURRENT WATER VAPORY LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL VORT DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THIS QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AS IT PIVOTS AROUND THE EXPANSIVE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL RESIDING NEAR JAMES BAY. STEEPENING
LLVL LAPSE RATES AND DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL HELP FUEL
CONVECTIVE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY OVERALL IS
STILL LACKING WITH VERY LITTLE CAPE IN THE CHARGE SEPARATION
LAYER. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
THIS AFTERNOON.

SHOWER CHANCES DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE PULLS
AWAY TOWARDS SUNDOWN. SEVERAL HI-RES MODELS INDICATING A SECONDARY
WAVE OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT INTO THURS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS SWINGING THROUGH. THIS FEATURE IS
CORROBORATED AMONG THE MORE BROAD SOLNS OF THE 00Z NAM AND GFS.
THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE UPPER LOW ACROSS OUR
NORTH...THIS WILL BE THE AREA THAT IS THE FOCUS OF SLGT AND CHC
POPS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS
TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE THE LONGWAVE WILL PIVOT EAST AND WEAKEN AS
THE MAIN JET CORE MIGRATES FURTHER BEYOND INFLECTION POINT OF THE
FRONT SIDE OF THE TROUGH AS A SECOND WEAK SHORTWAVE TRANSITIONS
THROUGH THE FLOW THURSDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE
SHOULD ONLY IMPACT NORTHERN ZONES AS THE LONGWAVE LIFTS TO THE NORTH.

FLOW ALOFT WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND ALLOW FOR DEEPER
MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTH. THIS ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING
ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE RIDGES AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THERE WILL BE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT
RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE NOT SHOWN THE BEST CONTINUITY IN REGARDS TO
TIMING THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO PASS THROUGH AND HELP SUPPORT
ACTIVITY SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS UNTIL GUIDANCE SHOWS BETTER
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THE FEATURE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST BY NEXT MONDAY AS OPERATIONAL RUNS SHOW THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN BECOMING MORE ZONAL...BUT REMAIN CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC IN
FINALLY BREAKING THE PATTERN AS MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
INCONSISTENT IN PROGGING THIS OVER THE PAST 10 OPERATIONAL RUNS.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
AREA OF CLOUDS WILL SWING THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL WAVE. WILL KEEP IN A VFR FORECAST FOR MOST PORTS ON
WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT FKL AND DUJ WHERE MVFR CIGS
WITH SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300832
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
432 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES TODAY AS ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE
TOWARD NORMAL BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LINGER NORTH OF THE AREA AS OF ABOUT 06Z.
THESE DEVELOPED EARLIER ALONG THE NOSE OF A RELATIVELY WEAK H5
JET MAX. AS WE PROGRESS FURTHER INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THESE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE WITH LACK OF SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET DIMINISHING. THUS...HAVE
DECREASED POPS NORTH OF I80 OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PERSISTING AS MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM
THE NW ARE DISSIPATING AS THEY ENCROACH. LLVL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
REMAIN SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO CURTAIL ANY WIDESPREAD FOG
DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER A FEW SHELTERED AREAS COULD SEE SOME PATCHY
FOG THIS MORNING.

CURRENT WATER VAPORY LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL VORT DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THIS QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AS IT PIVOTS AROUND THE EXPANSIVE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL RESIDING NEAR JAMES BAY. STEEPENING
LLVL LAPSE RATES AND DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL HELP FUEL
CONVECTIVE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY OVERALL IS
STILL LACKING WITH VERY LITTLE CAPE IN THE CHARGE SEPARATION
LAYER. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
THIS AFTERNOON.

SHOWER CHANCES DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE PULLS
AWAY TOWARDS SUNDOWN. SEVERAL HI-RES MODELS INDICATING A SECONDARY
WAVE OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT INTO THURS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS SWINGING THROUGH. THIS FEATURE IS
CORROBORATED AMONG THE MORE BROAD SOLNS OF THE 00Z NAM AND GFS.
THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE UPPER LOW ACROSS OUR
NORTH...THIS WILL BE THE AREA THAT IS THE FOCUS OF SLGT AND CHC
POPS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS
TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE THE LONGWAVE WILL PIVOT EAST AND WEAKEN AS
THE MAIN JET CORE MIGRATES FURTHER BEYOND INFLECTION POINT OF THE
FRONT SIDE OF THE TROUGH AS A SECOND WEAK SHORTWAVE TRANSITIONS
THROUGH THE FLOW THURSDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE
SHOULD ONLY IMPACT NORTHERN ZONES AS THE LONGWAVE LIFTS TO THE NORTH.

FLOW ALOFT WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND ALLOW FOR DEEPER
MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTH. THIS ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING
ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE RIDGES AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THERE WILL BE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT
RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE NOT SHOWN THE BEST CONTINUITY IN REGARDS TO
TIMING THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO PASS THROUGH AND HELP SUPPORT
ACTIVITY SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS UNTIL GUIDANCE SHOWS BETTER
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THE FEATURE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST BY NEXT MONDAY AS OPERATIONAL RUNS SHOW THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN BECOMING MORE ZONAL...BUT REMAIN CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC IN
FINALLY BREAKING THE PATTERN AS MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
INCONSISTENT IN PROGGING THIS OVER THE PAST 10 OPERATIONAL RUNS.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
AREA OF CLOUDS WILL SWING THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL WAVE. WILL KEEP IN A VFR FORECAST FOR MOST PORTS ON
WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT FKL AND DUJ WHERE MVFR CIGS
WITH SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300601
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
201 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES TODAY AS ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE
TOWARD NORMAL BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LINGER NORTH OF THE AREA AS OF ABOUT 06Z.
THESE DEVELOPED EARLIER ALONG THE NOSE OF A RELATIVELY WEAK H5
JET MAX. AS WE PROGRESS FURTHER INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THESE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE WITH LACK OF SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET DIMINISHING. THUS...HAVE
DECREASED POPS NORTH OF I80 OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PERSISTING AS MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM
THE NW ARE DISSIPATING AS THEY ENCROACH. LLVL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
REMAIN SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO CURTAIL ANY WIDESPREAD FOG
DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER A FEW SHELTERED AREAS COULD SEE SOME PATCHY
FOG THIS MORNING.

CURRENT WATER VAPORY LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL VORT DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THIS QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AS IT PIVOTS AROUND THE EXPANSIVE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL RESIDING NEAR JAMES BAY. STEEPENING
LLVL LAPSE RATES AND DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL HELP FUEL
CONVECTIVE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY OVERALL IS
STILL LACKING WITH VERY LITTLE CAPE IN THE CHARGE SEPARATION
LAYER. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
THIS AFTERNOON.

SHOWER CHANCES DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE PULLS
AWAY TOWARDS SUNDOWN. SEVERAL HI-RES MODELS INDICATING A SECONDARY
WAVE OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT INTO THURS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS SWINGING THROUGH. THIS FEATURE IS
CORROBORATED AMONG THE MORE BROAD SOLNS OF THE 00Z NAM AND GFS.
THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE UPPER LOW ACROSS OUR
NORTH...THIS WILL BE THE AREA THAT IS THE FOCUS OF SLGT AND CHC
POPS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE EXITS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS ENDING. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THEN BEGIN TO LIFT OUT AS CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT WEST
WITH HEIGHTS RISING OFF THE EAST COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND APPROACH SEASONAL AVERAGES
FRIDAY. SHOWERS CHANCES WILL LINGER MAINLY TOWARD I-80 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
ON FRIDAY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ALLOWING
DEEPER MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTH. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST AND
WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT WOULD EXPECT BETTER MOISTURE TO BEGIN
TO MOVE UP ALONG THE RIDGES BEFORE INCREASING FARTHER WEST TOWARD
OHIO. FOR NOW CHANCE POPS MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE MEAN TROUGH MAINTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...H500
HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RECOVERED TO THE POINT THAT ALLOWS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. DEW POINT WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE
DECENT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF MORE SPARSE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THIS
DISTURBANCE. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROUGH MAY TRY TO LIFT OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LITTLE OR
NO AFTERNOON PRECIP BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUED SEASONABLE
WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
AREA OF CLOUDS WILL SWING THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL WAVE. WILL KEEP IN A VFR FORECAST FOR MOST PORTS ON
WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT FKL AND DUJ WHERE MVFR CIGS
WITH SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300601
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
201 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES TODAY AS ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE
TOWARD NORMAL BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LINGER NORTH OF THE AREA AS OF ABOUT 06Z.
THESE DEVELOPED EARLIER ALONG THE NOSE OF A RELATIVELY WEAK H5
JET MAX. AS WE PROGRESS FURTHER INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THESE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE WITH LACK OF SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET DIMINISHING. THUS...HAVE
DECREASED POPS NORTH OF I80 OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PERSISTING AS MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM
THE NW ARE DISSIPATING AS THEY ENCROACH. LLVL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
REMAIN SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO CURTAIL ANY WIDESPREAD FOG
DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER A FEW SHELTERED AREAS COULD SEE SOME PATCHY
FOG THIS MORNING.

CURRENT WATER VAPORY LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL VORT DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THIS QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AS IT PIVOTS AROUND THE EXPANSIVE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL RESIDING NEAR JAMES BAY. STEEPENING
LLVL LAPSE RATES AND DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL HELP FUEL
CONVECTIVE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY OVERALL IS
STILL LACKING WITH VERY LITTLE CAPE IN THE CHARGE SEPARATION
LAYER. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
THIS AFTERNOON.

SHOWER CHANCES DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE PULLS
AWAY TOWARDS SUNDOWN. SEVERAL HI-RES MODELS INDICATING A SECONDARY
WAVE OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT INTO THURS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS SWINGING THROUGH. THIS FEATURE IS
CORROBORATED AMONG THE MORE BROAD SOLNS OF THE 00Z NAM AND GFS.
THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE UPPER LOW ACROSS OUR
NORTH...THIS WILL BE THE AREA THAT IS THE FOCUS OF SLGT AND CHC
POPS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE EXITS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS ENDING. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THEN BEGIN TO LIFT OUT AS CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT WEST
WITH HEIGHTS RISING OFF THE EAST COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND APPROACH SEASONAL AVERAGES
FRIDAY. SHOWERS CHANCES WILL LINGER MAINLY TOWARD I-80 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
ON FRIDAY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ALLOWING
DEEPER MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTH. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST AND
WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT WOULD EXPECT BETTER MOISTURE TO BEGIN
TO MOVE UP ALONG THE RIDGES BEFORE INCREASING FARTHER WEST TOWARD
OHIO. FOR NOW CHANCE POPS MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE MEAN TROUGH MAINTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...H500
HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RECOVERED TO THE POINT THAT ALLOWS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. DEW POINT WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE
DECENT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF MORE SPARSE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THIS
DISTURBANCE. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROUGH MAY TRY TO LIFT OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LITTLE OR
NO AFTERNOON PRECIP BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUED SEASONABLE
WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
AREA OF CLOUDS WILL SWING THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL WAVE. WILL KEEP IN A VFR FORECAST FOR MOST PORTS ON
WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT FKL AND DUJ WHERE MVFR CIGS
WITH SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300151 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
951 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TOWARD NORMAL BY LATE WEEK WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
10PM UPDATE...ADDED POPS ACROSS THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT
FOR SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS LAKE ERIE. ALSO MADE MORE ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

NORTHWESTERLY COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO WANE THIS EVENING AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SWITCH AROUND TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT INCOMING SYSTEM. THE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM CURRENTLY RUNS FROM ROUGHLY DETROIT TO FORT WAYNE...WITH AT
LEAST SOME NOMINAL SCATTERING OUT OF THE STRATOCUMULUS AHEAD OF
IT. THIS SHOULD YIELD SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
BEFORE THE WIND SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND COLD ADVECTION
STRATOCUMULUS AGAIN FILLS BACK IN. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOTED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND GIVEN INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH SAID
LIFTING MECHANISM...A SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT
AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES. REGARDLESS...YET ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN
STORE FOR THE REGION.

A MID-LEVEL WAVE LOOKS TO TRANSLATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND VERY LOW WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS DOWN TOWARD 7 KFT. WITH PRECIPITATION COOLING
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS BELOW THIS
LEVEL...SOME GRAUPEL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. HOWEVER...CAPE
VALUES BELOW 200 J/KG AND VERY SLIM POSITIVE AREA IN THE CHARGE
SEPARATION LAYER MAKE THUNDER A TOUGH THING TO CALL FOR. AS
SUCH...POPS WERE RAISED QUITE A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WHILE THUNDER WAS REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST. HIGHS WERE
SUMMARILY REDUCED TO ACCOUNT FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
COOLING. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE EXITS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS ENDING. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THEN BEGIN TO LIFT OUT AS CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT WEST
WITH HEIGHTS RISING OFF THE EAST COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND APPROACH SEASONAL AVERAGES
FRIDAY. SHOWERS CHANCES WILL LINGER MAINLY TOWARD I-80 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
ON FRIDAY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ALLOWING
DEEPER MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTH. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST AND
WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT WOULD EXPECT BETTER MOISTURE TO BEGIN
TO MOVE UP ALONG THE RIDGES BEFORE INCREASING FARTHER WEST TOWARD
OHIO. FOR NOW CHANCE POPS MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE MEAN TROUGH MAINTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...H500
HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RECOVERED TO THE POINT THAT ALLOWS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. DEW POINT WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE
DECENT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF MORE SPARSE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THIS
DISTURBANCE. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROUGH MAY TRY TO LIFT OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LITTLE OR
NO AFTERNOON PRECIP BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUED SEASONABLE
WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATOCU LAYER WILL QUICKLY DECREASE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS WILL SWING
THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE. WILL
KEEP IN A VFR FORECAST FOR THE NIGHT AND FOR MOST PORTS ON
WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT FKL AND DUJ WHERE MVFR CIGS
WITH SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300151 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
951 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TOWARD NORMAL BY LATE WEEK WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
10PM UPDATE...ADDED POPS ACROSS THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT
FOR SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS LAKE ERIE. ALSO MADE MORE ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

NORTHWESTERLY COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO WANE THIS EVENING AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SWITCH AROUND TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT INCOMING SYSTEM. THE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM CURRENTLY RUNS FROM ROUGHLY DETROIT TO FORT WAYNE...WITH AT
LEAST SOME NOMINAL SCATTERING OUT OF THE STRATOCUMULUS AHEAD OF
IT. THIS SHOULD YIELD SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
BEFORE THE WIND SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND COLD ADVECTION
STRATOCUMULUS AGAIN FILLS BACK IN. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOTED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND GIVEN INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH SAID
LIFTING MECHANISM...A SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT
AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES. REGARDLESS...YET ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN
STORE FOR THE REGION.

A MID-LEVEL WAVE LOOKS TO TRANSLATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND VERY LOW WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS DOWN TOWARD 7 KFT. WITH PRECIPITATION COOLING
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS BELOW THIS
LEVEL...SOME GRAUPEL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. HOWEVER...CAPE
VALUES BELOW 200 J/KG AND VERY SLIM POSITIVE AREA IN THE CHARGE
SEPARATION LAYER MAKE THUNDER A TOUGH THING TO CALL FOR. AS
SUCH...POPS WERE RAISED QUITE A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WHILE THUNDER WAS REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST. HIGHS WERE
SUMMARILY REDUCED TO ACCOUNT FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
COOLING. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE EXITS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS ENDING. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THEN BEGIN TO LIFT OUT AS CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT WEST
WITH HEIGHTS RISING OFF THE EAST COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND APPROACH SEASONAL AVERAGES
FRIDAY. SHOWERS CHANCES WILL LINGER MAINLY TOWARD I-80 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
ON FRIDAY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ALLOWING
DEEPER MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTH. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST AND
WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT WOULD EXPECT BETTER MOISTURE TO BEGIN
TO MOVE UP ALONG THE RIDGES BEFORE INCREASING FARTHER WEST TOWARD
OHIO. FOR NOW CHANCE POPS MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE MEAN TROUGH MAINTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...H500
HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RECOVERED TO THE POINT THAT ALLOWS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. DEW POINT WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE
DECENT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF MORE SPARSE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THIS
DISTURBANCE. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROUGH MAY TRY TO LIFT OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LITTLE OR
NO AFTERNOON PRECIP BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUED SEASONABLE
WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATOCU LAYER WILL QUICKLY DECREASE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS WILL SWING
THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE. WILL
KEEP IN A VFR FORECAST FOR THE NIGHT AND FOR MOST PORTS ON
WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT FKL AND DUJ WHERE MVFR CIGS
WITH SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 292354 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
754 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TOWARD NORMAL BY LATE WEEK WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
8PM UPDATE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT. ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER
AND NUDGED TEMPS CLOSER TO LATEST GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

NORTHWESTERLY COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO WANE THIS EVENING AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SWITCH AROUND TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT INCOMING SYSTEM. THE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM CURRENTLY RUNS FROM ROUGHLY DETROIT TO FORT WAYNE...WITH AT
LEAST SOME NOMINAL SCATTERING OUT OF THE STRATOCUMULUS AHEAD OF
IT. THIS SHOULD YIELD SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
BEFORE THE WIND SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND COLD ADVECTION
STRATOCUMULUS AGAIN FILLS BACK IN. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOTED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND GIVEN INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH SAID
LIFTING MECHANISM...A SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT
AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES. REGARDLESS...YET ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN
STORE FOR THE REGION.

A MID-LEVEL WAVE LOOKS TO TRANSLATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND VERY LOW WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS DOWN TOWARD 7 KFT. WITH PRECIPITATION COOLING
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS BELOW THIS
LEVEL...SOME GRAUPEL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. HOWEVER...CAPE
VALUES BELOW 200 J/KG AND VERY SLIM POSITIVE AREA IN THE CHARGE
SEPARATION LAYER MAKE THUNDER A TOUGH THING TO CALL FOR. AS
SUCH...POPS WERE RAISED QUITE A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WHILE THUNDER WAS REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST. HIGHS WERE
SUMMARILY REDUCED TO ACCOUNT FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
COOLING. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE EXITS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS ENDING. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THEN BEGIN TO LIFT OUT AS CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT WEST
WITH HEIGHTS RISING OFF THE EAST COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND APPROACH SEASONAL AVERAGES
FRIDAY. SHOWERS CHANCES WILL LINGER MAINLY TOWARD I-80 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
ON FRIDAY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ALLOWING
DEEPER MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTH. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST AND
WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT WOULD EXPECT BETTER MOISTURE TO BEGIN
TO MOVE UP ALONG THE RIDGES BEFORE INCREASING FARTHER WEST TOWARD
OHIO. FOR NOW CHANCE POPS MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE MEAN TROUGH MAINTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...H500
HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RECOVERED TO THE POINT THAT ALLOWS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. DEW POINT WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE
DECENT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF MORE SPARSE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THIS
DISTURBANCE. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROUGH MAY TRY TO LIFT OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LITTLE OR
NO AFTERNOON PRECIP BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUED SEASONABLE
WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATOCU LAYER WILL QUICKLY DECREASE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS WILL SWING
THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE. WILL
KEEP IN A VFR FORECAST FOR THE NIGHT AND FOR MOST PORTS ON
WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT FKL AND DUJ WHERE MVFR CIGS
WITH SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 292354 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
754 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TOWARD NORMAL BY LATE WEEK WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
8PM UPDATE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT. ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER
AND NUDGED TEMPS CLOSER TO LATEST GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

NORTHWESTERLY COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO WANE THIS EVENING AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SWITCH AROUND TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT INCOMING SYSTEM. THE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM CURRENTLY RUNS FROM ROUGHLY DETROIT TO FORT WAYNE...WITH AT
LEAST SOME NOMINAL SCATTERING OUT OF THE STRATOCUMULUS AHEAD OF
IT. THIS SHOULD YIELD SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
BEFORE THE WIND SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND COLD ADVECTION
STRATOCUMULUS AGAIN FILLS BACK IN. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOTED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND GIVEN INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH SAID
LIFTING MECHANISM...A SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT
AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES. REGARDLESS...YET ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN
STORE FOR THE REGION.

A MID-LEVEL WAVE LOOKS TO TRANSLATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND VERY LOW WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS DOWN TOWARD 7 KFT. WITH PRECIPITATION COOLING
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS BELOW THIS
LEVEL...SOME GRAUPEL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. HOWEVER...CAPE
VALUES BELOW 200 J/KG AND VERY SLIM POSITIVE AREA IN THE CHARGE
SEPARATION LAYER MAKE THUNDER A TOUGH THING TO CALL FOR. AS
SUCH...POPS WERE RAISED QUITE A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WHILE THUNDER WAS REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST. HIGHS WERE
SUMMARILY REDUCED TO ACCOUNT FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
COOLING. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE EXITS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS ENDING. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THEN BEGIN TO LIFT OUT AS CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT WEST
WITH HEIGHTS RISING OFF THE EAST COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND APPROACH SEASONAL AVERAGES
FRIDAY. SHOWERS CHANCES WILL LINGER MAINLY TOWARD I-80 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
ON FRIDAY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ALLOWING
DEEPER MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTH. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST AND
WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT WOULD EXPECT BETTER MOISTURE TO BEGIN
TO MOVE UP ALONG THE RIDGES BEFORE INCREASING FARTHER WEST TOWARD
OHIO. FOR NOW CHANCE POPS MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE MEAN TROUGH MAINTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...H500
HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RECOVERED TO THE POINT THAT ALLOWS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. DEW POINT WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE
DECENT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF MORE SPARSE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THIS
DISTURBANCE. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROUGH MAY TRY TO LIFT OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LITTLE OR
NO AFTERNOON PRECIP BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUED SEASONABLE
WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATOCU LAYER WILL QUICKLY DECREASE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS WILL SWING
THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE. WILL
KEEP IN A VFR FORECAST FOR THE NIGHT AND FOR MOST PORTS ON
WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT FKL AND DUJ WHERE MVFR CIGS
WITH SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 292238 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
638 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TOWARD NORMAL BY LATE WEEK WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NORTHWESTERLY COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO WANE THIS EVENING AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SWITCH AROUND TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT INCOMING SYSTEM. THE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM CURRENTLY RUNS FROM ROUGHLY DETROIT TO FORT WAYNE...WITH AT
LEAST SOME NOMINAL SCATTERING OUT OF THE STRATOCUMULUS AHEAD OF
IT. THIS SHOULD YIELD SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
BEFORE THE WIND SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND COLD ADVECTION
STRATOCUMULUS AGAIN FILLS BACK IN. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOTED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND GIVEN INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH SAID
LIFTING MECHANISM...A SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT
AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES. REGARDLESS...YET ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN
STORE FOR THE REGION.

A MID-LEVEL WAVE LOOKS TO TRANSLATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND VERY LOW WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS DOWN TOWARD 7 KFT. WITH PRECIPITATION COOLING
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS BELOW THIS
LEVEL...SOME GRAUPEL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. HOWEVER...CAPE
VALUES BELOW 200 J/KG AND VERY SLIM POSITIVE AREA IN THE CHARGE
SEPARATION LAYER MAKE THUNDER A TOUGH THING TO CALL FOR. AS
SUCH...POPS WERE RAISED QUITE A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WHILE THUNDER WAS REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST. HIGHS WERE
SUMMARILY REDUCED TO ACCOUNT FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
COOLING. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE EXITS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS ENDING. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THEN BEGIN TO LIFT OUT AS CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT WEST
WITH HEIGHTS RISING OFF THE EAST COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND APPROACH SEASONAL AVERAGES
FRIDAY. SHOWERS CHANCES WILL LINGER MAINLY TOWARD I-80 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
ON FRIDAY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ALLOWING
DEEPER MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTH. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST AND
WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT WOULD EXPECT BETTER MOISTURE TO BEGIN
TO MOVE UP ALONG THE RIDGES BEFORE INCREASING FARTHER WEST TOWARD
OHIO. FOR NOW CHANCE POPS MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE MEAN TROUGH MAINTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...H500
HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RECOVERED TO THE POINT THAT ALLOWS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. DEW POINT WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE
DECENT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF MORE SPARSE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THIS
DISTURBANCE. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROUGH MAY TRY TO LIFT OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LITTLE OR
NO AFTERNOON PRECIP BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUED SEASONABLE
WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATOCU LAYER WILL QUICKLY DECREASE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS WILL SWING
THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE. WILL
KEEP IN A VFR FORECAST FOR THE NIGHT AND FOR MOST PORTS ON
WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT FKL AND DUJ WHERE MVFR CIGS
WITH SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 292238 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
638 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TOWARD NORMAL BY LATE WEEK WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NORTHWESTERLY COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO WANE THIS EVENING AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SWITCH AROUND TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT INCOMING SYSTEM. THE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM CURRENTLY RUNS FROM ROUGHLY DETROIT TO FORT WAYNE...WITH AT
LEAST SOME NOMINAL SCATTERING OUT OF THE STRATOCUMULUS AHEAD OF
IT. THIS SHOULD YIELD SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
BEFORE THE WIND SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND COLD ADVECTION
STRATOCUMULUS AGAIN FILLS BACK IN. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOTED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND GIVEN INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH SAID
LIFTING MECHANISM...A SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT
AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES. REGARDLESS...YET ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN
STORE FOR THE REGION.

A MID-LEVEL WAVE LOOKS TO TRANSLATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND VERY LOW WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS DOWN TOWARD 7 KFT. WITH PRECIPITATION COOLING
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS BELOW THIS
LEVEL...SOME GRAUPEL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. HOWEVER...CAPE
VALUES BELOW 200 J/KG AND VERY SLIM POSITIVE AREA IN THE CHARGE
SEPARATION LAYER MAKE THUNDER A TOUGH THING TO CALL FOR. AS
SUCH...POPS WERE RAISED QUITE A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WHILE THUNDER WAS REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST. HIGHS WERE
SUMMARILY REDUCED TO ACCOUNT FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
COOLING. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE EXITS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS ENDING. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THEN BEGIN TO LIFT OUT AS CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT WEST
WITH HEIGHTS RISING OFF THE EAST COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND APPROACH SEASONAL AVERAGES
FRIDAY. SHOWERS CHANCES WILL LINGER MAINLY TOWARD I-80 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
ON FRIDAY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ALLOWING
DEEPER MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTH. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST AND
WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT WOULD EXPECT BETTER MOISTURE TO BEGIN
TO MOVE UP ALONG THE RIDGES BEFORE INCREASING FARTHER WEST TOWARD
OHIO. FOR NOW CHANCE POPS MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE MEAN TROUGH MAINTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...H500
HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RECOVERED TO THE POINT THAT ALLOWS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. DEW POINT WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE
DECENT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF MORE SPARSE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THIS
DISTURBANCE. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROUGH MAY TRY TO LIFT OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LITTLE OR
NO AFTERNOON PRECIP BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUED SEASONABLE
WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATOCU LAYER WILL QUICKLY DECREASE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS WILL SWING
THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE. WILL
KEEP IN A VFR FORECAST FOR THE NIGHT AND FOR MOST PORTS ON
WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT FKL AND DUJ WHERE MVFR CIGS
WITH SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 292051
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
451 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TOWARD NORMAL BY LATE WEEK WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NORTHWESTERLY COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO WANE THIS EVENING AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SWITCH AROUND TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT INCOMING SYSTEM. THE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM CURRENTLY RUNS FROM ROUGHLY DETROIT TO FORT WAYNE...WITH AT
LEAST SOME NOMINAL SCATTERING OUT OF THE STRATOCUMULUS AHEAD OF
IT. THIS SHOULD YIELD SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
BEFORE THE WIND SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND COLD ADVECTION
STRATOCUMULUS AGAIN FILLS BACK IN. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOTED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND GIVEN INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH SAID
LIFTING MECHANISM...A SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT
AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES. REGARDLESS...YET ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN
STORE FOR THE REGION.

A MID-LEVEL WAVE LOOKS TO TRANSLATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND VERY LOW WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS DOWN TOWARD 7 KFT. WITH PRECIPITATION COOLING
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS BELOW THIS
LEVEL...SOME GRAUPEL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. HOWEVER...CAPE
VALUES BELOW 200 J/KG AND VERY SLIM POSITIVE AREA IN THE CHARGE
SEPARATION LAYER MAKE THUNDER A TOUGH THING TO CALL FOR. AS
SUCH...POPS WERE RAISED QUITE A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WHILE THUNDER WAS REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST. HIGHS WERE
SUMMARILY REDUCED TO ACCOUNT FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
COOLING. FRIES



&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE EXITS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS ENDING. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THEN BEGIN TO LIFT OUT AS CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT WEST
WITH HEIGHTS RISING OFF THE EAST COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND APPROACH SEASONAL AVERAGES
FRIDAY. SHOWERS CHANCES WILL LINGER MAINLY TOWARD I-80 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
ON FRIDAY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ALLOWING
DEEPER MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTH. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST AND
WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT WOULD EXPECT BETTER MOISTURE TO BEGIN
TO MOVE UP ALONG THE RIDGES BEFORE INCREASING FARTHER WEST TOWARD
OHIO. FOR NOW CHANCE POPS MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE MEAN TROUGH MAINTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...H500
HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RECOVERED TO THE POINT THAT ALLOWS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. DEW POINT WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE
DECENT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF MORE SPARSE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THIS
DISTURBANCE. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROUGH MAY TRY TO LIFT OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LITTLE OR
NO AFTERNOON PRECIP BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUED SEASONABLE
WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH SKIES GENERALLY OVERCAST...BUT COULD STILL SEE
AN ISOLATED MVFR CEILING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR
FOG AT ZZV WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. CLOUDS WILL BUILD IN ONCE
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
REGION. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE PREVAILING SHOWERS AT
THIS TIME...AND HAVE JUST INCLUDED VCSH FOR NOW. THERE WILL ONLY
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER...SO THAT WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST EITHER.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 292051
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
451 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TOWARD NORMAL BY LATE WEEK WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NORTHWESTERLY COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO WANE THIS EVENING AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SWITCH AROUND TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT INCOMING SYSTEM. THE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM CURRENTLY RUNS FROM ROUGHLY DETROIT TO FORT WAYNE...WITH AT
LEAST SOME NOMINAL SCATTERING OUT OF THE STRATOCUMULUS AHEAD OF
IT. THIS SHOULD YIELD SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
BEFORE THE WIND SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND COLD ADVECTION
STRATOCUMULUS AGAIN FILLS BACK IN. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOTED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND GIVEN INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH SAID
LIFTING MECHANISM...A SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT
AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES. REGARDLESS...YET ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN
STORE FOR THE REGION.

A MID-LEVEL WAVE LOOKS TO TRANSLATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND VERY LOW WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS DOWN TOWARD 7 KFT. WITH PRECIPITATION COOLING
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS BELOW THIS
LEVEL...SOME GRAUPEL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. HOWEVER...CAPE
VALUES BELOW 200 J/KG AND VERY SLIM POSITIVE AREA IN THE CHARGE
SEPARATION LAYER MAKE THUNDER A TOUGH THING TO CALL FOR. AS
SUCH...POPS WERE RAISED QUITE A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WHILE THUNDER WAS REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST. HIGHS WERE
SUMMARILY REDUCED TO ACCOUNT FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
COOLING. FRIES



&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE EXITS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS ENDING. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THEN BEGIN TO LIFT OUT AS CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT WEST
WITH HEIGHTS RISING OFF THE EAST COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND APPROACH SEASONAL AVERAGES
FRIDAY. SHOWERS CHANCES WILL LINGER MAINLY TOWARD I-80 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
ON FRIDAY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ALLOWING
DEEPER MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTH. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST AND
WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT WOULD EXPECT BETTER MOISTURE TO BEGIN
TO MOVE UP ALONG THE RIDGES BEFORE INCREASING FARTHER WEST TOWARD
OHIO. FOR NOW CHANCE POPS MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE MEAN TROUGH MAINTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...H500
HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RECOVERED TO THE POINT THAT ALLOWS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. DEW POINT WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE
DECENT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF MORE SPARSE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THIS
DISTURBANCE. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROUGH MAY TRY TO LIFT OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LITTLE OR
NO AFTERNOON PRECIP BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUED SEASONABLE
WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH SKIES GENERALLY OVERCAST...BUT COULD STILL SEE
AN ISOLATED MVFR CEILING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR
FOG AT ZZV WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. CLOUDS WILL BUILD IN ONCE
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
REGION. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE PREVAILING SHOWERS AT
THIS TIME...AND HAVE JUST INCLUDED VCSH FOR NOW. THERE WILL ONLY
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER...SO THAT WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST EITHER.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291848
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
248 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TOWARD NORMAL BY LATE WEEK WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE BUT STRATO CU IN NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING AS NEXT SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY LEFT CHANCE POPS WITH SHORTWAVE
PUSHING ACROSS REGION UNDER CLOSED LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ESPECIALLY WITH
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. ENOUGH CAPE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY BUT WOULD EXPECT SMALL HAIL AT BEST WITH
VERY LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES A CLOSE BLEND OF MODEL MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE EXITS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS ENDING. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THEN BEGIN TO LIFT OUT AS CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT WEST
WITH HEIGHTS RISING OFF THE EAST COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND APPROACH SEASONAL AVERAGES
FRIDAY. SHOWERS CHANCES WILL LINGER MAINLY TOWARD I-80 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
ON FRIDAY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ALLOWING
DEEPER MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTH. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST AND
WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT WOULD EXPECT BETTER MOISTURE TO BEGIN
TO MOVE UP ALONG THE RIDGES BEFORE INCREASING FARTHER WEST TOWARD
OHIO. FOR NOW CHANCE POPS MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE MEAN TROUGH MAINTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...H500
HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RECOVERED TO THE POINT THAT ALLOWS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. DEW POINT WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE
DECENT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF MORE SPARSE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THIS
DISTURBANCE. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROUGH MAY TRY TO LIFT OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LITTLE OR
NO AFTERNOON PRECIP BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUED SEASONABLE
WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH SKIES GENERALLY OVERCAST...BUT COULD STILL SEE
AN ISOLATED MVFR CEILING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR
FOG AT ZZV WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. CLOUDS WILL BUILD IN ONCE
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
REGION. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE PREVAILING SHOWERS AT
THIS TIME...AND HAVE JUST INCLUDED VCSH FOR NOW. THERE WILL ONLY
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER...SO THAT WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST EITHER.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291848
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
248 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TOWARD NORMAL BY LATE WEEK WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE BUT STRATO CU IN NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING AS NEXT SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY LEFT CHANCE POPS WITH SHORTWAVE
PUSHING ACROSS REGION UNDER CLOSED LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ESPECIALLY WITH
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. ENOUGH CAPE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY BUT WOULD EXPECT SMALL HAIL AT BEST WITH
VERY LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES A CLOSE BLEND OF MODEL MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE EXITS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS ENDING. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THEN BEGIN TO LIFT OUT AS CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT WEST
WITH HEIGHTS RISING OFF THE EAST COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND APPROACH SEASONAL AVERAGES
FRIDAY. SHOWERS CHANCES WILL LINGER MAINLY TOWARD I-80 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
ON FRIDAY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ALLOWING
DEEPER MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTH. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST AND
WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT WOULD EXPECT BETTER MOISTURE TO BEGIN
TO MOVE UP ALONG THE RIDGES BEFORE INCREASING FARTHER WEST TOWARD
OHIO. FOR NOW CHANCE POPS MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE MEAN TROUGH MAINTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...H500
HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RECOVERED TO THE POINT THAT ALLOWS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. DEW POINT WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE
DECENT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF MORE SPARSE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THIS
DISTURBANCE. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROUGH MAY TRY TO LIFT OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LITTLE OR
NO AFTERNOON PRECIP BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUED SEASONABLE
WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH SKIES GENERALLY OVERCAST...BUT COULD STILL SEE
AN ISOLATED MVFR CEILING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR
FOG AT ZZV WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. CLOUDS WILL BUILD IN ONCE
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
REGION. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE PREVAILING SHOWERS AT
THIS TIME...AND HAVE JUST INCLUDED VCSH FOR NOW. THERE WILL ONLY
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER...SO THAT WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST EITHER.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291536
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1136 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS REGION WITH PARTLY SUNNY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS DIURNAL CU HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG WITH
STRATUS IN NORTHWEST FLOW. ONCE AGAIN RAISED SKY GRIDS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK REACHABLE
ESPECIALLY IF DEEPER MIXING REACHES REGION LATE AFTERNOON...AHEAD
OF NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. TONIGHT DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE
BUT SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST AS NEXT UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ARRIVE TOWARD DAYBREAK. LOWS TONIGHT STILL COOL
BUT SHOULD BE 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE READINGS THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MEAN EASTERN U.S. TROUGH IS MAINTAINED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE H500 AXIS RELOADS TO THE WEST BY FRIDAY.
POPS WILL TAKE ON A HIGHLY DIURNAL CHARACTER IN THIS PATTERN. WHILE
THIS IS HAPPENING...HEIGHTS RISE WITH TIME. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE BACK TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS BY FRIDAY.
DECENT SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE TROUGH AND ACROSS THE
CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED CWA-
WIDE. UPPED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE NORTH...WHERE LIKELY POPS
MAY BECOME APPROPRIATE IN FUTURE FORECASTS. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE NOT AS ROBUST AS TUESDAY...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED STORMS WHICH COULD EVEN CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL. AFTER WAVE DEPARTS...THURSDAY SHOULD BE LESS ACTIVE WITH
PRECIP NORTH OF I-70 FOR THE MOST PART. KEPT ISOLATED THUNDER
AGAIN...WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ON FRIDAY...A WAVE
TRIES TO ROTATE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND THEN RIDE UP THE APPALACHIANS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY BETTER SHRA COVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES DURING
THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
FAVORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE MEAN TROUGH MAINTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...H500
HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RECOVERED TO THE POINT THAT ALLOWS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. DEW POINT WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE
DECENT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF MORE SPARSE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THIS
DISTURBANCE. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROUGH MAY TRY TO LIFT OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LITTLE OR
NO AFTERNOON PRECIP BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUED SEASONABLE
WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME MVFR IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND
WITH BKN-OVC STRATO-CU INTO THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291536
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1136 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS REGION WITH PARTLY SUNNY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS DIURNAL CU HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG WITH
STRATUS IN NORTHWEST FLOW. ONCE AGAIN RAISED SKY GRIDS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK REACHABLE
ESPECIALLY IF DEEPER MIXING REACHES REGION LATE AFTERNOON...AHEAD
OF NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. TONIGHT DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE
BUT SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST AS NEXT UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ARRIVE TOWARD DAYBREAK. LOWS TONIGHT STILL COOL
BUT SHOULD BE 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE READINGS THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MEAN EASTERN U.S. TROUGH IS MAINTAINED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE H500 AXIS RELOADS TO THE WEST BY FRIDAY.
POPS WILL TAKE ON A HIGHLY DIURNAL CHARACTER IN THIS PATTERN. WHILE
THIS IS HAPPENING...HEIGHTS RISE WITH TIME. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE BACK TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS BY FRIDAY.
DECENT SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE TROUGH AND ACROSS THE
CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED CWA-
WIDE. UPPED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE NORTH...WHERE LIKELY POPS
MAY BECOME APPROPRIATE IN FUTURE FORECASTS. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE NOT AS ROBUST AS TUESDAY...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED STORMS WHICH COULD EVEN CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL. AFTER WAVE DEPARTS...THURSDAY SHOULD BE LESS ACTIVE WITH
PRECIP NORTH OF I-70 FOR THE MOST PART. KEPT ISOLATED THUNDER
AGAIN...WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ON FRIDAY...A WAVE
TRIES TO ROTATE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND THEN RIDE UP THE APPALACHIANS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY BETTER SHRA COVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES DURING
THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
FAVORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE MEAN TROUGH MAINTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...H500
HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RECOVERED TO THE POINT THAT ALLOWS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. DEW POINT WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE
DECENT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF MORE SPARSE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THIS
DISTURBANCE. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROUGH MAY TRY TO LIFT OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LITTLE OR
NO AFTERNOON PRECIP BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUED SEASONABLE
WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME MVFR IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND
WITH BKN-OVC STRATO-CU INTO THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291409
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1009 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO SKY GRIDS OTHERWISE NO CHANGES FOR MID MORNIG UPDATE.

A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST TODAY...ALTHOUGH A WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL
DROP OUT OF THE NORTH REACHING OUR NWRN PERIPHERY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. DEEPER MOISTURE IS RELATIVELY SPARSE AND LAGS
BEHIND...BUT ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE AND STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD GENERATE DIURNAL CU ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
PRIMARILY NORTH OF I80. H85 TEMPS PROGGED BY THE NEAR TERM MODELS
TO BE IN THE 5-7C RANGE OR ABOUT 2SD BELOW THE MEAN. THIS
UNUSUALLY COLD AIR UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL KEEP DAYTIME
HIGHS IN CHECK. ONCE AGAIN WE WILL BE LOOKING AT DAYTIME HIGHS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MEAN EASTERN U.S. TROUGH IS MAINTAINED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE H500 AXIS RELOADS TO THE WEST BY FRIDAY.
POPS WILL TAKE ON A HIGHLY DIURNAL CHARACTER IN THIS PATTERN. WHILE
THIS IS HAPPENING...HEIGHTS RISE WITH TIME. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE BACK TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS BY FRIDAY.
DECENT SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE TROUGH AND ACROSS THE
CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED CWA-
WIDE. UPPED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE NORTH...WHERE LIKELY POPS
MAY BECOME APPROPRIATE IN FUTURE FORECASTS. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE NOT AS ROBUST AS TUESDAY...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED STORMS WHICH COULD EVEN CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL. AFTER WAVE DEPARTS...THURSDAY SHOULD BE LESS ACTIVE WITH
PRECIP NORTH OF I-70 FOR THE MOST PART. KEPT ISOLATED THUNDER
AGAIN...WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ON FRIDAY...A WAVE
TRIES TO ROTATE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND THEN RIDE UP THE APPALACHIANS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY BETTER SHRA COVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES DURING
THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
FAVORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE MEAN TROUGH MAINTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...H500
HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RECOVERED TO THE POINT THAT ALLOWS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. DEWPOINT WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE
DECENT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF MORE SPARSE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THIS
DISTURBANCE. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROUGH MAY TRY TO LIFT OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LITTLE OR
NO AFTERNOON PRECIP BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUED SEASONABLE
WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS CIGS GENERALLY STAYING
4KFT AND HIGHER. A COUPLE OF THE MORE SHELTERED
TERMINALS SUCH AS DUJ AND LBE COULD SEE A DIP IN CIGS AS SHALLOW
STRATUS FORMS CLOSER TO THE HIGH TERRAIN. PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED
MID-MORNING ON AS NORTHWEST FLOW AND COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MID-LEVEL CU.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291409
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1009 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO SKY GRIDS OTHERWISE NO CHANGES FOR MID MORNIG UPDATE.

A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST TODAY...ALTHOUGH A WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL
DROP OUT OF THE NORTH REACHING OUR NWRN PERIPHERY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. DEEPER MOISTURE IS RELATIVELY SPARSE AND LAGS
BEHIND...BUT ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE AND STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD GENERATE DIURNAL CU ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
PRIMARILY NORTH OF I80. H85 TEMPS PROGGED BY THE NEAR TERM MODELS
TO BE IN THE 5-7C RANGE OR ABOUT 2SD BELOW THE MEAN. THIS
UNUSUALLY COLD AIR UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL KEEP DAYTIME
HIGHS IN CHECK. ONCE AGAIN WE WILL BE LOOKING AT DAYTIME HIGHS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MEAN EASTERN U.S. TROUGH IS MAINTAINED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE H500 AXIS RELOADS TO THE WEST BY FRIDAY.
POPS WILL TAKE ON A HIGHLY DIURNAL CHARACTER IN THIS PATTERN. WHILE
THIS IS HAPPENING...HEIGHTS RISE WITH TIME. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE BACK TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS BY FRIDAY.
DECENT SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE TROUGH AND ACROSS THE
CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED CWA-
WIDE. UPPED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE NORTH...WHERE LIKELY POPS
MAY BECOME APPROPRIATE IN FUTURE FORECASTS. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE NOT AS ROBUST AS TUESDAY...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED STORMS WHICH COULD EVEN CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL. AFTER WAVE DEPARTS...THURSDAY SHOULD BE LESS ACTIVE WITH
PRECIP NORTH OF I-70 FOR THE MOST PART. KEPT ISOLATED THUNDER
AGAIN...WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ON FRIDAY...A WAVE
TRIES TO ROTATE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND THEN RIDE UP THE APPALACHIANS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY BETTER SHRA COVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES DURING
THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
FAVORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE MEAN TROUGH MAINTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...H500
HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RECOVERED TO THE POINT THAT ALLOWS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. DEWPOINT WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE
DECENT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF MORE SPARSE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THIS
DISTURBANCE. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROUGH MAY TRY TO LIFT OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LITTLE OR
NO AFTERNOON PRECIP BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUED SEASONABLE
WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS CIGS GENERALLY STAYING
4KFT AND HIGHER. A COUPLE OF THE MORE SHELTERED
TERMINALS SUCH AS DUJ AND LBE COULD SEE A DIP IN CIGS AS SHALLOW
STRATUS FORMS CLOSER TO THE HIGH TERRAIN. PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED
MID-MORNING ON AS NORTHWEST FLOW AND COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MID-LEVEL CU.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291029
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
629 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL WELL OFF TO THE WEST THIS MORNING...SFC
FLOW NEVER FULLY CALMED THUS INHIBITING FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTENTIAL. REGARDLESS...THE AREA WILL BE STARTING THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGE LOWS.

A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST TODAY...ALTHOUGH A WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL
DROP OUT OF THE NORTH REACHING OUR NWRN PERIPHERY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. DEEPER MOISTURE IS RELATIVELY SPARSE AND LAGS BEHIND...BUT
ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE AND STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES SHOULD GENERATE
DIURNAL CU ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS PRIMARILY NORTH OF I80.
H85 TEMPS PROGGED BY THE NEAR TERM MODELS TO BE IN THE 5-7C RANGE OR
ABOUT 2SD BELOW THE MEAN. THIS UNUSUALLY COLD AIR UNDER A NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS IN CHECK DESPITE THE MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS. ONCE AGAIN WE WILL BE LOOKING AT DAYTIME HIGHS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MEAN EASTERN U.S. TROUGH IS MAINTAINED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE H500 AXIS RELOADS TO THE WEST BY FRIDAY.
POPS WILL TAKE ON A HIGHLY DIURNAL CHARACTER IN THIS PATTERN. WHILE
THIS IS HAPPENING...HEIGHTS RISE WITH TIME. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE BACK TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS BY FRIDAY.
DECENT SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE TROUGH AND ACROSS THE
CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED CWA-
WIDE. UPPED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE NORTH...WHERE LIKELY POPS
MAY BECOME APPROPRIATE IN FUTURE FORECASTS. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE NOT AS ROBUST AS TUESDAY...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED STORMS WHICH COULD EVEN CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL. AFTER WAVE DEPARTS...THURSDAY SHOULD BE LESS ACTIVE WITH
PRECIP NORTH OF I-70 FOR THE MOST PART. KEPT ISOLATED THUNDER
AGAIN...WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ON FRIDAY...A WAVE
TRIES TO ROTATE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND THEN RIDE UP THE APPALACHIANS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY BETTER SHRA COVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES DURING
THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
FAVORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE MEAN TROUGH MAINTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...H500
HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RECOVERED TO THE POINT THAT ALLOWS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. DEWPOINT WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE
DECENT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF MORE SPARSE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THIS
DISTURBANCE. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROUGH MAY TRY TO LIFT OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LITTLE OR
NO AFTERNOON PRECIP BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUED SEASONABLE
WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS CIGS GENERALLY STAYING
4KFT AND HIGHER. A COUPLE OF THE MORE SHELTERED
TERMINALS SUCH AS DUJ AND LBE COULD SEE A DIP IN CIGS AS SHALLOW
STRATUS FORMS CLOSER TO THE HIGH TERRAIN. PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED
MID-MORNING ON AS NORTHWEST FLOW AND COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MID-LEVEL CU.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290825
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
425 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL WELL OFF TO THE WEST THIS MORNING...SFC
FLOW NEVER CALMED THUS INHIBITING FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTENTIAL. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO NEARLY 10
DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGE LOWS ULTIMATELY CHALLENGING SOME DAILY
RECORDS.

A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST TODAY...ALTHOUGH A WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL
DROP OUT OF THE NORTH REACHING OUR NWRN PERIPHERY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. DEEPER MOISTURE IS RELATIVELY SPARSE AND LAGS BEHIND...BUT
ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE AND STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES SHOULD GENERATE
DIURNAL CU ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS PRIMARILY NORTH OF I80.
H85 TEMPS PROGGED BY THE NEAR TERM MODELS TO BE IN THE 5-7C RANGE OR
ABOUT 2SD BELOW THE MEAN. THIS UNUSUALLY COLD AIR UNDER A NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS IN CHECK DESPITE THE MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS. ONCE AGAIN WE WILL BE LOOKING AT DAYTIME HIGHS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MEAN EASTERN U.S. TROUGH IS MAINTAINED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE H500 AXIS RELOADS TO THE WEST BY FRIDAY.
POPS WILL TAKE ON A HIGHLY DIURNAL CHARACTER IN THIS PATTERN. WHILE
THIS IS HAPPENING...HEIGHTS RISE WITH TIME. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE BACK TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS BY FRIDAY.
DECENT SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE TROUGH AND ACROSS THE
CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED CWA-
WIDE. UPPED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE NORTH...WHERE LIKELY POPS
MAY BECOME APPROPRIATE IN FUTURE FORECASTS. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE NOT AS ROBUST AS TUESDAY...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED STORMS WHICH COULD EVEN CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL. AFTER WAVE DEPARTS...THURSDAY SHOULD BE LESS ACTIVE WITH
PRECIP NORTH OF I-70 FOR THE MOST PART. KEPT ISOLATED THUNDER
AGAIN...WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ON FRIDAY...A WAVE
TRIES TO ROTATE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND THEN RIDE UP THE APPALACHIANS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY BETTER SHRA COVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES DURING
THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
FAVORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE MEAN TROUGH MAINTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...H500
HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RECOVERED TO THE POINT THAT ALLOWS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. DEWPOINT WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE
DECENT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF MORE SPARSE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THIS
DISTURBANCE. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROUGH MAY TRY TO LIFT OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LITTLE OR
NO AFTERNOON PRECIP BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUED SEASONABLE
WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS CIGS GENERALLY STAYING
4KFT AND HIGHER. A COUPLE OF THE MORE SHELTERED
TERMINALS SUCH AS DUJ AND LBE COULD SEE A DIP IN CIGS AS SHALLOW
STRATUS FORMS CLOSER TO THE HIGH TERRAIN. WIDESPREAD VFR EXPECTED
AFTER SUNRISE AS NORTHWEST FLOW AND COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CU.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290825
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
425 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL WELL OFF TO THE WEST THIS MORNING...SFC
FLOW NEVER CALMED THUS INHIBITING FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTENTIAL. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO NEARLY 10
DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGE LOWS ULTIMATELY CHALLENGING SOME DAILY
RECORDS.

A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST TODAY...ALTHOUGH A WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL
DROP OUT OF THE NORTH REACHING OUR NWRN PERIPHERY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. DEEPER MOISTURE IS RELATIVELY SPARSE AND LAGS BEHIND...BUT
ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE AND STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES SHOULD GENERATE
DIURNAL CU ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS PRIMARILY NORTH OF I80.
H85 TEMPS PROGGED BY THE NEAR TERM MODELS TO BE IN THE 5-7C RANGE OR
ABOUT 2SD BELOW THE MEAN. THIS UNUSUALLY COLD AIR UNDER A NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS IN CHECK DESPITE THE MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS. ONCE AGAIN WE WILL BE LOOKING AT DAYTIME HIGHS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MEAN EASTERN U.S. TROUGH IS MAINTAINED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE H500 AXIS RELOADS TO THE WEST BY FRIDAY.
POPS WILL TAKE ON A HIGHLY DIURNAL CHARACTER IN THIS PATTERN. WHILE
THIS IS HAPPENING...HEIGHTS RISE WITH TIME. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE BACK TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS BY FRIDAY.
DECENT SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE TROUGH AND ACROSS THE
CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED CWA-
WIDE. UPPED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE NORTH...WHERE LIKELY POPS
MAY BECOME APPROPRIATE IN FUTURE FORECASTS. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE NOT AS ROBUST AS TUESDAY...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED STORMS WHICH COULD EVEN CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL. AFTER WAVE DEPARTS...THURSDAY SHOULD BE LESS ACTIVE WITH
PRECIP NORTH OF I-70 FOR THE MOST PART. KEPT ISOLATED THUNDER
AGAIN...WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ON FRIDAY...A WAVE
TRIES TO ROTATE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND THEN RIDE UP THE APPALACHIANS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY BETTER SHRA COVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES DURING
THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
FAVORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE MEAN TROUGH MAINTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...H500
HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RECOVERED TO THE POINT THAT ALLOWS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. DEWPOINT WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE
DECENT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF MORE SPARSE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THIS
DISTURBANCE. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROUGH MAY TRY TO LIFT OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LITTLE OR
NO AFTERNOON PRECIP BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUED SEASONABLE
WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS CIGS GENERALLY STAYING
4KFT AND HIGHER. A COUPLE OF THE MORE SHELTERED
TERMINALS SUCH AS DUJ AND LBE COULD SEE A DIP IN CIGS AS SHALLOW
STRATUS FORMS CLOSER TO THE HIGH TERRAIN. WIDESPREAD VFR EXPECTED
AFTER SUNRISE AS NORTHWEST FLOW AND COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CU.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290134
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
934 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A VERY COLD COLUMN CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING.
AT THE SAME TIME...DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS WANING...WHICH EVEN WITH
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT IS LEADING TO A RAPID DECIMATION OF THE
CUMULUS FIELD OVER THE AREA AS WELL AS ANY REMAINING SHOWER
ACTIVITY. BRISK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...WHICH WILL HELP TO BRING THE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S TO
OUR NORTHWEST DEEP INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...DUE TO THE FACT THAT SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL OFF TO OUR WEST...WINDS SHOULD STAY
ABOVE CALM ALL NIGHT...WHICH WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE MUCH MORE THAN
PATCHY LOCAL FOG DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. AS
SUCH...TEMPERATURE FALLS ON BOTH A RADIATIVE AND ADVECTIVE BASIS
SHOULD BE IMPRESSIVE. FORECAST GUIDANCE ALL POINTS TOWARD RECORD
LOWS TONIGHT...AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CONCURRED WITH THIS. AS
SUCH...LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT
EXCEPT TO BRING AN END TO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE RECORD LOW IN
PITTSBURGH FOR JULY 29TH IS 52 SET IN 1982.

ON TUESDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES WITH COLD ADVECTION
ALLOWING FOR A DIURNAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS. FORCING WILL BE
LACKING...SO SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE FAR LOWER THAN THEY WERE THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET UP TO ABOUT
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOOKS LIKE OCTOBER
IN JULY WITH DEEP CLOSED LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA NEARLY
STATIONARY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING UNDERNEATH IT. BEST SHOWER
CHANCES WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST.
BULK OF SHOWERS THURSDAY SHOULD BE DIURNAL AND CONFINED TO THE
I-80 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPR TROF WL SET UP ACRS THE ERN CONUS THRU THE LONG TERM PD. SVRL
WK SHRTWVS WL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF...BUT WITH LMTD AVAIL DEEP
MOISTURE EXP MAINLY DIURNAL LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS EACH DAY. TEMPS WL
AVG NR OR JUST BLO SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IMPROVEMENT IN CLOUD HEIGHTS THIS EVENING WITH LOW CLOUDS SHIFTING
EASTWARD. WILL GO WITH GENERAL VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE NORTH AND
EAST EARLY. MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS SWINGING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WILL INDICATE A TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE IN
EASTERN PORTS JUST BEFORE DAWN. DID NOT OVERPLAY FOG AS CLOUDS
WILL BE AROUND MOST OF THE NIGHT. WESTERN PORTS SHOULD SEE LESS
CLOUD COVER THEN THE EAST ON TUESDAY. AS NORTHWEST FLOW AND COOLER
AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CU.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290134
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
934 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A VERY COLD COLUMN CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING.
AT THE SAME TIME...DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS WANING...WHICH EVEN WITH
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT IS LEADING TO A RAPID DECIMATION OF THE
CUMULUS FIELD OVER THE AREA AS WELL AS ANY REMAINING SHOWER
ACTIVITY. BRISK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...WHICH WILL HELP TO BRING THE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S TO
OUR NORTHWEST DEEP INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...DUE TO THE FACT THAT SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL OFF TO OUR WEST...WINDS SHOULD STAY
ABOVE CALM ALL NIGHT...WHICH WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE MUCH MORE THAN
PATCHY LOCAL FOG DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. AS
SUCH...TEMPERATURE FALLS ON BOTH A RADIATIVE AND ADVECTIVE BASIS
SHOULD BE IMPRESSIVE. FORECAST GUIDANCE ALL POINTS TOWARD RECORD
LOWS TONIGHT...AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CONCURRED WITH THIS. AS
SUCH...LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT
EXCEPT TO BRING AN END TO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE RECORD LOW IN
PITTSBURGH FOR JULY 29TH IS 52 SET IN 1982.

ON TUESDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES WITH COLD ADVECTION
ALLOWING FOR A DIURNAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS. FORCING WILL BE
LACKING...SO SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE FAR LOWER THAN THEY WERE THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET UP TO ABOUT
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOOKS LIKE OCTOBER
IN JULY WITH DEEP CLOSED LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA NEARLY
STATIONARY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING UNDERNEATH IT. BEST SHOWER
CHANCES WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST.
BULK OF SHOWERS THURSDAY SHOULD BE DIURNAL AND CONFINED TO THE
I-80 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPR TROF WL SET UP ACRS THE ERN CONUS THRU THE LONG TERM PD. SVRL
WK SHRTWVS WL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF...BUT WITH LMTD AVAIL DEEP
MOISTURE EXP MAINLY DIURNAL LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS EACH DAY. TEMPS WL
AVG NR OR JUST BLO SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IMPROVEMENT IN CLOUD HEIGHTS THIS EVENING WITH LOW CLOUDS SHIFTING
EASTWARD. WILL GO WITH GENERAL VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE NORTH AND
EAST EARLY. MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS SWINGING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WILL INDICATE A TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE IN
EASTERN PORTS JUST BEFORE DAWN. DID NOT OVERPLAY FOG AS CLOUDS
WILL BE AROUND MOST OF THE NIGHT. WESTERN PORTS SHOULD SEE LESS
CLOUD COVER THEN THE EAST ON TUESDAY. AS NORTHWEST FLOW AND COOLER
AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CU.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290028
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
828 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A VERY COLD COLUMN CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING.
AT THE SAME TIME...DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS WANING...WHICH EVEN WITH
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT IS LEADING TO A RAPID DECIMATION OF THE
CUMULUS FIELD OVER THE AREA AS WELL AS ANY REMAINING SHOWER
ACTIVITY. BRISK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...WHICH WILL HELP TO BRING THE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S TO
OUR NORTHWEST DEEP INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...DUE TO THE FACT THAT SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL OFF TO OUR WEST...WINDS SHOULD STAY
ABOVE CALM ALL NIGHT...WHICH WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE MUCH FOG
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURE
FALLS ON BOTH A RADIATIVE AND ADVECTIVE BASIS SHOULD BE
IMPRESSIVE. FORECAST GUIDANCE ALL POINTS TOWARD RECORD LOWS
TONIGHT...AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CONCURRED WITH THIS. AS
SUCH...LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT
EXCEPT TO BRING AN END TO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE RECORD LOW IN
PITTSBURGH FOR JULY 29TH IS 52 SET IN 1982.

ON TUESDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES WITH COLD ADVECTION
ALLOWING FOR A DIURNAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS. FORCING WILL BE
LACKING...SO SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE FAR LOWER THAN THEY WERE THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET UP TO ABOUT
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FRIES



&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOOKS LIKE OCTOBER
IN JULY WITH DEEP CLOSED LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA NEARLY
STATIONARY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING UNDERNEATH IT. BEST SHOWER
CHANCES WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST.
BULK OF SHOWERS THURSDAY SHOULD BE DIURNAL AND CONFINED TO THE
I-80 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPR TROF WL SET UP ACRS THE ERN CONUS THRU THE LONG TERM PD. SVRL
WK SHRTWVS WL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF...BUT WITH LMTD AVAIL DEEP
MOISTURE EXP MAINLY DIURNAL LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS EACH DAY. TEMPS WL
AVG NR OR JUST BLO SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IMPROVEMENT IN CLOUD HEIGHTS THIS EVENING WITH LOW CLOUDS SHIFTING
EASTWARD. WILL GO WITH GENERAL VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE NORTH AND
EAST EARLY. MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS SWINGING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WILL INDICATE A TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE IN
EASTERN PORTS JUST BEFORE DAWN. DID NOT OVERPLAY FOG AS CLOUDS
WILL BE AROUND MOST OF THE NIGHT. WESTERN PORTS SHOULD SEE LESS
CLOUD COVER THEN THE EAST ON TUESDAY. AS NORTHWEST FLOW AND COOLER
AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CU.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290028
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
828 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A VERY COLD COLUMN CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING.
AT THE SAME TIME...DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS WANING...WHICH EVEN WITH
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT IS LEADING TO A RAPID DECIMATION OF THE
CUMULUS FIELD OVER THE AREA AS WELL AS ANY REMAINING SHOWER
ACTIVITY. BRISK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...WHICH WILL HELP TO BRING THE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S TO
OUR NORTHWEST DEEP INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...DUE TO THE FACT THAT SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL OFF TO OUR WEST...WINDS SHOULD STAY
ABOVE CALM ALL NIGHT...WHICH WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE MUCH FOG
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURE
FALLS ON BOTH A RADIATIVE AND ADVECTIVE BASIS SHOULD BE
IMPRESSIVE. FORECAST GUIDANCE ALL POINTS TOWARD RECORD LOWS
TONIGHT...AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CONCURRED WITH THIS. AS
SUCH...LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT
EXCEPT TO BRING AN END TO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE RECORD LOW IN
PITTSBURGH FOR JULY 29TH IS 52 SET IN 1982.

ON TUESDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES WITH COLD ADVECTION
ALLOWING FOR A DIURNAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS. FORCING WILL BE
LACKING...SO SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE FAR LOWER THAN THEY WERE THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET UP TO ABOUT
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FRIES



&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOOKS LIKE OCTOBER
IN JULY WITH DEEP CLOSED LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA NEARLY
STATIONARY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING UNDERNEATH IT. BEST SHOWER
CHANCES WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST.
BULK OF SHOWERS THURSDAY SHOULD BE DIURNAL AND CONFINED TO THE
I-80 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPR TROF WL SET UP ACRS THE ERN CONUS THRU THE LONG TERM PD. SVRL
WK SHRTWVS WL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF...BUT WITH LMTD AVAIL DEEP
MOISTURE EXP MAINLY DIURNAL LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS EACH DAY. TEMPS WL
AVG NR OR JUST BLO SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IMPROVEMENT IN CLOUD HEIGHTS THIS EVENING WITH LOW CLOUDS SHIFTING
EASTWARD. WILL GO WITH GENERAL VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE NORTH AND
EAST EARLY. MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS SWINGING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WILL INDICATE A TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE IN
EASTERN PORTS JUST BEFORE DAWN. DID NOT OVERPLAY FOG AS CLOUDS
WILL BE AROUND MOST OF THE NIGHT. WESTERN PORTS SHOULD SEE LESS
CLOUD COVER THEN THE EAST ON TUESDAY. AS NORTHWEST FLOW AND COOLER
AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CU.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 282338 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
738 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GOING FORECAST HAS BEEN TWEAKED MAINLY TO HOLD ONTO ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG I-80 A TAD LONGER OWING TO LINGERING DIURNAL
INSTABILITY DRIVING A HANDFUL OF CURRENT RADAR ECHOES.
OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH HAS BEEN CHANGED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS
THE SHORT WAVE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED TO REMOVE EARLY EVENING WORDING AND TO ALLOW FOR THE TREND
DOWN TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH. FRIES

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY FOLLOWS...AFTER
CURRENT SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST THIS EVENING LEFTOVER UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL END IN THE RIDGES. THEN A QUITE COOL OVERNIGHT WITH
RECORD LOWS BEING CHALLENGED ACROSS THE REGION. THE RECORD LOW IN
PITTSBURGH FOR JULY 29TH IS 52 SET IN 1982. MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR TUESDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH COLD AIR
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ONCE AGAIN MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOOKS LIKE OCTOBER
IN JULY WITH DEEP CLOSED LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA NEARLY
STATIONARY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING UNDERNEATH IT. BEST SHOWER
CHANCES WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST.
BULK OF SHOWERS THURSDAY SHOULD BE DIURNAL AND CONFINED TO THE
I-80 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPR TROF WL SET UP ACRS THE ERN CONUS THRU THE LONG TERM PD. SVRL
WK SHRTWVS WL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF...BUT WITH LMTD AVAIL DEEP
MOISTURE EXP MAINLY DIURNAL LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS EACH DAY. TEMPS WL
AVG NR OR JUST BLO SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IMPROVEMENT IN CLOUD HEIGHTS THIS EVENING WITH LOW CLOUDS SHIFTING
EASTWARD. WILL GO WITH GENERAL VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE NORTH AND
EAST EARLY. MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS SWINGING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WILL INDICATE A TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE IN
EASTERN PORTS JUST BEFORE DAWN. DID NOT OVERPLAY FOG AS CLOUDS
WILL BE AROUND MOST OF THE NIGHT. WESTERN PORTS SHOULD SEE LESS
CLOUD COVER THEN THE EAST ON TUESDAY. AS NORTHWEST FLOW AND COOLER
AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CU.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 282338 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
738 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GOING FORECAST HAS BEEN TWEAKED MAINLY TO HOLD ONTO ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG I-80 A TAD LONGER OWING TO LINGERING DIURNAL
INSTABILITY DRIVING A HANDFUL OF CURRENT RADAR ECHOES.
OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH HAS BEEN CHANGED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS
THE SHORT WAVE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED TO REMOVE EARLY EVENING WORDING AND TO ALLOW FOR THE TREND
DOWN TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH. FRIES

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY FOLLOWS...AFTER
CURRENT SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST THIS EVENING LEFTOVER UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL END IN THE RIDGES. THEN A QUITE COOL OVERNIGHT WITH
RECORD LOWS BEING CHALLENGED ACROSS THE REGION. THE RECORD LOW IN
PITTSBURGH FOR JULY 29TH IS 52 SET IN 1982. MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR TUESDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH COLD AIR
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ONCE AGAIN MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOOKS LIKE OCTOBER
IN JULY WITH DEEP CLOSED LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA NEARLY
STATIONARY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING UNDERNEATH IT. BEST SHOWER
CHANCES WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST.
BULK OF SHOWERS THURSDAY SHOULD BE DIURNAL AND CONFINED TO THE
I-80 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPR TROF WL SET UP ACRS THE ERN CONUS THRU THE LONG TERM PD. SVRL
WK SHRTWVS WL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF...BUT WITH LMTD AVAIL DEEP
MOISTURE EXP MAINLY DIURNAL LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS EACH DAY. TEMPS WL
AVG NR OR JUST BLO SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IMPROVEMENT IN CLOUD HEIGHTS THIS EVENING WITH LOW CLOUDS SHIFTING
EASTWARD. WILL GO WITH GENERAL VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE NORTH AND
EAST EARLY. MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS SWINGING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WILL INDICATE A TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE IN
EASTERN PORTS JUST BEFORE DAWN. DID NOT OVERPLAY FOG AS CLOUDS
WILL BE AROUND MOST OF THE NIGHT. WESTERN PORTS SHOULD SEE LESS
CLOUD COVER THEN THE EAST ON TUESDAY. AS NORTHWEST FLOW AND COOLER
AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CU.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 282132
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
532 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GOING FORECAST HAS BEEN TWEAKED MAINLY TO HOLD ONTO ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG I-80 A TAD LONGER OWING TO LINGERING DIURNAL
INSTABILITY DRIVING A HANDFUL OF CURRENT RADAR ECHOES.
OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH HAS BEEN CHANGED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS
THE SHORT WAVE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED TO REMOVE EARLY EVENING WORDING AND TO ALLOW FOR THE TREND
DOWN TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH. FRIES

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY FOLLOWS...AFTER
CURRENT SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST THIS EVENING LEFTOVER UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL END IN THE RIDGES. THEN A QUITE COOL OVERNIGHT WITH
RECORD LOWS BEING CHALLENGED ACROSS THE REGION. THE RECORD LOW IN
PITTSBURGH FOR JULY 29TH IS 52 SET IN 1982. MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR TUESDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH COLD AIR
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ONCE AGAIN MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOOKS LIKE OCTOBER
IN JULY WITH DEEP CLOSED LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA NEARLY
STATIONARY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING UNDERNEATH IT. BEST SHOWER
CHANCES WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST.
BULK OF SHOWERS THURSDAY SHOULD BE DIURNAL AND CONFINED TO THE
I-80 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPR TROF WL SET UP ACRS THE ERN CONUS THRU THE LONG TERM PD. SVRL
WK SHRTWVS WL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF...BUT WITH LMTD AVAIL DEEP
MOISTURE EXP MAINLY DIURNAL LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS EACH DAY. TEMPS WL
AVG NR OR JUST BLO SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ADVNG ERN GT LKS LOW PRES WL WDSPRD BRING MVFR SC AND A NMRS SHWRS
TO THE RGN THRU THIS AFTN...ALG WITH GUSTY W-NW WNDS. LINGERING VFR
SC/DIURNAL CU IS EXPD AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TNGT INTO TUE.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 282132
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
532 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GOING FORECAST HAS BEEN TWEAKED MAINLY TO HOLD ONTO ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG I-80 A TAD LONGER OWING TO LINGERING DIURNAL
INSTABILITY DRIVING A HANDFUL OF CURRENT RADAR ECHOES.
OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH HAS BEEN CHANGED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS
THE SHORT WAVE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED TO REMOVE EARLY EVENING WORDING AND TO ALLOW FOR THE TREND
DOWN TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH. FRIES

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY FOLLOWS...AFTER
CURRENT SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST THIS EVENING LEFTOVER UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL END IN THE RIDGES. THEN A QUITE COOL OVERNIGHT WITH
RECORD LOWS BEING CHALLENGED ACROSS THE REGION. THE RECORD LOW IN
PITTSBURGH FOR JULY 29TH IS 52 SET IN 1982. MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR TUESDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH COLD AIR
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ONCE AGAIN MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOOKS LIKE OCTOBER
IN JULY WITH DEEP CLOSED LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA NEARLY
STATIONARY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING UNDERNEATH IT. BEST SHOWER
CHANCES WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST.
BULK OF SHOWERS THURSDAY SHOULD BE DIURNAL AND CONFINED TO THE
I-80 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPR TROF WL SET UP ACRS THE ERN CONUS THRU THE LONG TERM PD. SVRL
WK SHRTWVS WL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF...BUT WITH LMTD AVAIL DEEP
MOISTURE EXP MAINLY DIURNAL LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS EACH DAY. TEMPS WL
AVG NR OR JUST BLO SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ADVNG ERN GT LKS LOW PRES WL WDSPRD BRING MVFR SC AND A NMRS SHWRS
TO THE RGN THRU THIS AFTN...ALG WITH GUSTY W-NW WNDS. LINGERING VFR
SC/DIURNAL CU IS EXPD AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TNGT INTO TUE.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281907
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
307 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER CURRENT SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST THIS EVENING LEFTOVER UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL END IN THE RIDGES. THEN A QUITE COOL OVERNIGHT WITH
RECORD LOWS BEING CHALLENGED ACROSS THE REGION. THE RECORD LOW IN
PITTSBURGH FOR JULY 29TH IS 52 SET IN 1982. MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR TUESDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH COLD AIR
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ONCE AGAIN MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOOKS LIKE OCTOBER
IN JULY WITH DEEP CLOSED LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA NEARLY
STATIONARY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING UNDERNEATH IT. BEST SHOWER
CHANCES WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST.
BULK OF SHOWERS THURSDAY SHOULD BE DIURNAL AND CONFINED TO THE
I-80 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPR TROF WL SET UP ACRS THE ERN CONUS THRU THE LONG TERM PD. SVRL
WK SHRTWVS WL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF...BUT WITH LMTD AVAIL DEEP
MOISTURE EXP MAINLY DIURNAL LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS EACH DAY. TEMPS WL
AVG NR OR JUST BLO SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ADVNG ERN GT LKS LOW PRES WL WDSPRD BRING MVFR SC AND A NMRS SHWRS
TO THE RGN THRU THIS AFTN...ALG WITH GUSTY W-NW WNDS. LINGERING VFR
SC/DIURNAL CU IS EXPD AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TNGT INTO TUE.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281907
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
307 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER CURRENT SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST THIS EVENING LEFTOVER UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL END IN THE RIDGES. THEN A QUITE COOL OVERNIGHT WITH
RECORD LOWS BEING CHALLENGED ACROSS THE REGION. THE RECORD LOW IN
PITTSBURGH FOR JULY 29TH IS 52 SET IN 1982. MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR TUESDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH COLD AIR
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ONCE AGAIN MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOOKS LIKE OCTOBER
IN JULY WITH DEEP CLOSED LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA NEARLY
STATIONARY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING UNDERNEATH IT. BEST SHOWER
CHANCES WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST.
BULK OF SHOWERS THURSDAY SHOULD BE DIURNAL AND CONFINED TO THE
I-80 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPR TROF WL SET UP ACRS THE ERN CONUS THRU THE LONG TERM PD. SVRL
WK SHRTWVS WL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF...BUT WITH LMTD AVAIL DEEP
MOISTURE EXP MAINLY DIURNAL LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS EACH DAY. TEMPS WL
AVG NR OR JUST BLO SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ADVNG ERN GT LKS LOW PRES WL WDSPRD BRING MVFR SC AND A NMRS SHWRS
TO THE RGN THRU THIS AFTN...ALG WITH GUSTY W-NW WNDS. LINGERING VFR
SC/DIURNAL CU IS EXPD AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TNGT INTO TUE.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281713
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
113 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE REMOVED THUNDER FROM FORECAST AS SHOWERS NOT REACHING DEEP
ENOUGH ALOFT FOR THUNDER TO BE WORTH MENTIONING. MAIN BAND OF
SHOWERS WITH CROSSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WORK
SOUTHEAST ACROSS REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTER THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES EAST THIS EVENING LEFTOVER UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL END IN THE
RIDGES. THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AT PITTSBURGH FOR JULY
28TH IS 72 SET IN 1875. THEN A QUITE COOL OVERNIGHT WITH RECORD
LOWS BEING CHALLENGED ACROSS THE REGION. THE RECORD LOW IN
PITTSBURGH FOR JULY 29TH IS 52 SET IN 1982.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST
DURING MIDWEEK...AS UPPER LOW CENTER SINKS SOUTHWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN END OF HUDSON BAY. ALTHOUGH WEAK VORT MAXES WILL BE
ROTATING THROUGH AND KEEPING THE TROUGH IN PLACE...H500 HEIGHTS
WILL BE ON A SLOW INCREASE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODERATING TREND
IN TEMPERATURES...FROM READINGS AROUND 70 ON TUESDAY TO THE MID 70S
ON THURSDAY.

THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW DIURNALLY-FORCED ISOLATED
SHRA EACH AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO NW PA ON
TUESDAY AS MOISTURE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW. ON WEDNESDAY MOISTURE
IS BETTER WITH SHORTWAVE AND CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED IN MOST
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
H500 HEIGHTS RISE A BIT MORE FRIDAY..ALLOWING A FEW LOCATIONS TO
TOUCH THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS. ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS ONCE
AGAIN...PARTICULARLY IN THE NW. MODELS THEN HINT THAT THE TROUGH
GETS REINFORCED SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND...KNOCKING TEMPERATURES
BACK A COUPLE OF DEGREES. BETTER SHOWER CHANCES RETURN AS
WELL...WITH CHANCE POPS EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY AS MINOR WAVES ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROUGH. LEFT THUNDER OUT FOR NOW BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
OVER THE WEEKEND. ALL IN ALL...NO MAJOR SYSTEMS OR SUMMER HEAT
FORESEEN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ADVNG ERN GT LKS LOW PRES WL WDSPRD BRING MVFR SC AND A NMRS SHWRS
TO THE RGN THRU THIS AFTN...ALG WITH GUSTY W-NW WNDS. LINGERING VFR
SC/DIURNAL CU IS EXPD AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TNGT INTO TUE.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$













000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281713
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
113 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE REMOVED THUNDER FROM FORECAST AS SHOWERS NOT REACHING DEEP
ENOUGH ALOFT FOR THUNDER TO BE WORTH MENTIONING. MAIN BAND OF
SHOWERS WITH CROSSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WORK
SOUTHEAST ACROSS REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTER THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES EAST THIS EVENING LEFTOVER UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL END IN THE
RIDGES. THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AT PITTSBURGH FOR JULY
28TH IS 72 SET IN 1875. THEN A QUITE COOL OVERNIGHT WITH RECORD
LOWS BEING CHALLENGED ACROSS THE REGION. THE RECORD LOW IN
PITTSBURGH FOR JULY 29TH IS 52 SET IN 1982.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST
DURING MIDWEEK...AS UPPER LOW CENTER SINKS SOUTHWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN END OF HUDSON BAY. ALTHOUGH WEAK VORT MAXES WILL BE
ROTATING THROUGH AND KEEPING THE TROUGH IN PLACE...H500 HEIGHTS
WILL BE ON A SLOW INCREASE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODERATING TREND
IN TEMPERATURES...FROM READINGS AROUND 70 ON TUESDAY TO THE MID 70S
ON THURSDAY.

THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW DIURNALLY-FORCED ISOLATED
SHRA EACH AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO NW PA ON
TUESDAY AS MOISTURE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW. ON WEDNESDAY MOISTURE
IS BETTER WITH SHORTWAVE AND CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED IN MOST
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
H500 HEIGHTS RISE A BIT MORE FRIDAY..ALLOWING A FEW LOCATIONS TO
TOUCH THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS. ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS ONCE
AGAIN...PARTICULARLY IN THE NW. MODELS THEN HINT THAT THE TROUGH
GETS REINFORCED SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND...KNOCKING TEMPERATURES
BACK A COUPLE OF DEGREES. BETTER SHOWER CHANCES RETURN AS
WELL...WITH CHANCE POPS EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY AS MINOR WAVES ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROUGH. LEFT THUNDER OUT FOR NOW BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
OVER THE WEEKEND. ALL IN ALL...NO MAJOR SYSTEMS OR SUMMER HEAT
FORESEEN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ADVNG ERN GT LKS LOW PRES WL WDSPRD BRING MVFR SC AND A NMRS SHWRS
TO THE RGN THRU THIS AFTN...ALG WITH GUSTY W-NW WNDS. LINGERING VFR
SC/DIURNAL CU IS EXPD AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TNGT INTO TUE.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$














000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281323
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
923 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE FELT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK WITH SURFACE LOW NOW INTO NEW YORK
STATE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHORTWAVE TO CROSS REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. MINOR ADJSUTMENTS TO GRIDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

SFC LOW PULLING AWAY EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT ITS
INFLUENCE WILL STILL REMAIN TODAY. ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE SFC
LOW ANOTHER MID-LEVEL VORT LOBE IS SWINGING DOWN FROM NEAR LAKE
ERIE. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE ON THE INCREASE CURRENTLY AND WILL
BEGIN TO STREAM IN ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH MIDDAY. EXPECTING TO
SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE IN SPATIAL
COVERAGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRENGTH
WILL REMAIN LIMITED...HOWEVER...AS INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL AT
BEST DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE HOMOGENEOUS CLOUD COVER. EXPECTING
GUSTY WINDS AS THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND
COLD AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE LOW. NEAR TERM MODELS ARE A LITTLE
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE EROSION OF THE LLVL MOISTURE THIS EVENING
AND THUS HAVE SPED UP THE DRYING AND CLEARING TREND TONIGHT. MUCH
COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED TODAY AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. WE COULD
EVEN SEE SOME RECORD LOW HIGHS CHALLENGED.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST
DURING MIDWEEK...AS UPPER LOW CENTER SINKS SOUTHWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN END OF HUDSON BAY. ALTHOUGH WEAK VORT MAXES WILL BE
ROTATING THROUGH AND KEEPING THE TROUGH IN PLACE...H500 HEIGHTS
WILL BE ON A SLOW INCREASE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODERATING TREND
IN TEMPERATURES...FROM READINGS AROUND 70 ON TUESDAY TO THE UPPER
70S ON THURSDAY.

THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW DIURNALLY-FORCED ISOLATED
SHRA EACH AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO NW PA ON
TUESDAY AS MOISTURE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE IS BETTER...AND CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED IN
MOST AREAS. UPPER COLD POOL ALSO PASSES OVERHEAD...WHICH WILL
ENHANCE INSTABILITY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO. THURSDAY WILL SEE LESS ACTIVITY...AND LITTLE THUNDER
CHANCE...AS COLD POOL SLIDES AWAY AND H500 HEIGHTS CONTINUE THEIR
RISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
H500 HEIGHTS RISE A BIT MORE FRIDAY..ALLOWING A FEW LOCATIONS TO
TOUCH THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS. ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS ONCE
AGAIN...PARTICULARLY IN THE NW. MODELS THEN HINT THAT THE TROUGH
GETS REINFORCED SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND...KNOCKING TEMPERATURES
BACK A COUPLE OF DEGREES. BETTER SHOWER CHANCES RETURN AS
WELL...WITH CHANCE POPS EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY AS MINOR WAVES ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROUGH. LEFT THUNDER OUT FOR NOW BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
OVER THE WEEKEND. ALL IN ALL...NO MAJOR SYSTEMS OR SUMMER HEAT
FORESEEN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ADVNG GT LKS LOW PRES WL BRING MVFR SC AND A SCT-NMRS SHWRS TO THE
RGN THRU THIS AFTN. SOME IFR CIGS ARE ALSO EXPD THIS MRNG N OF I
80. LINGERING VFR SC IS EXPD AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TNGT.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BRF RSTRNS ARE PSBL WED WITH AN UPR LVL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281152
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
752 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN TODAY WITH
A DRYING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FELT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC LOW PULLING AWAY EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT ITS
INFLUENCE WILL STILL REMAIN TODAY. ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE SFC
LOW ANOTHER MID-LEVEL VORT LOBE IS SWINGING DOWN FROM NEAR LAKE
ERIE. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE ON THE INCREASE CURRENTLY AND WILL
BEGIN TO STREAM IN ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH MIDDAY. EXPECTING TO
SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE IN SPATIAL
COVERAGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRENGTH
WILL REMAIN LIMITED...HOWEVER...AS INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL AT
BEST DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE HOMOGENEOUS CLOUD COVER. EXPECTING
GUSTY WINDS AS THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND
COLD AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE LOW. NEAR TERM MODELS ARE A LITTLE
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE EROSION OF THE LLVL MOISTURE THIS EVENING
AND THUS HAVE SPED UP THE DRYING AND CLEARING TREND TONIGHT. MUCH
COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED TODAY AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. WE COULD
EVEN SEE SOME RECORD LOW HIGHS CHALLENGED.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST
DURING MIDWEEK...AS UPPER LOW CENTER SINKS SOUTHWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN END OF HUDSON BAY. ALTHOUGH WEAK VORT MAXES WILL BE
ROTATING THROUGH AND KEEPING THE TROUGH IN PLACE...H500 HEIGHTS
WILL BE ON A SLOW INCREASE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODERATING TREND
IN TEMPERATURES...FROM READINGS AROUND 70 ON TUESDAY TO THE UPPER
70S ON THURSDAY.

THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW DIURNALLY-FORCED ISOLATED
SHRA EACH AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO NW PA ON
TUESDAY AS MOISTURE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE IS BETTER...AND CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED IN
MOST AREAS. UPPER COLD POOL ALSO PASSES OVERHEAD...WHICH WILL
ENHANCE INSTABILITY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO. THURSDAY WILL SEE LESS ACTIVITY...AND LITTLE THUNDER
CHANCE...AS COLD POOL SLIDES AWAY AND H500 HEIGHTS CONTINUE THEIR
RISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
H500 HEIGHTS RISE A BIT MORE FRIDAY..ALLOWING A FEW LOCATIONS TO
TOUCH THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS. ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS ONCE
AGAIN...PARTICULARLY IN THE NW. MODELS THEN HINT THAT THE TROUGH
GETS REINFORCED SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND...KNOCKING TEMPERATURES
BACK A COUPLE OF DEGREES. BETTER SHOWER CHANCES RETURN AS
WELL...WITH CHANCE POPS EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY AS MINOR WAVES ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROUGH. LEFT THUNDER OUT FOR NOW BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
OVER THE WEEKEND. ALL IN ALL...NO MAJOR SYSTEMS OR SUMMER HEAT
FORESEEN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ADVNG GT LKS LOW PRES WL BRING MVFR SC AND A SCT-NMRS SHWRS TO THE
RGN THRU THIS AFTN. SOME IFR CIGS ARE ALSO EXPD THIS MRNG N OF I
80. LINGERING VFR SC IS EXPD AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TNGT.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BRF RSTRNS ARE PSBL WED WITH AN UPR LVL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281046
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
646 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN TODAY WITH
A DRYING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FELT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC LOW PULLING AWAY EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT ITS
INFLUENCE WILL STILL REMAIN TODAY. ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE SFC
LOW ANOTHER MID-LEVEL VORT LOBE IS SWINGING DOWN FROM NEAR LAKE
ERIE. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE ON THE INCREASE CURRENTLY AND WILL
BEGIN TO STREAM IN ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH MIDDAY. EXPECTING TO
SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE IN SPATIAL
COVERAGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRENGTH
WILL REMAIN LIMITED...HOWEVER...AS INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL AT
BEST DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE HOMOGENEOUS CLOUD COVER. EXPECTING
GUSTY WINDS AS THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND
COLD AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE LOW. NEAR TERM MODELS ARE A LITTLE
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE EROSION OF THE LLVL MOISTURE THIS EVENING
AND THUS HAVE SPED UP THE DRYING AND CLEARING TREND TONIGHT. MUCH
COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED TODAY AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. WE COULD
EVEN SEE SOME RECORD LOW HIGHS CHALLENGED.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST
DURING MIDWEEK...AS UPPER LOW CENTER SINKS SOUTHWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN END OF HUDSON BAY. ALTHOUGH WEAK VORT MAXES WILL BE
ROTATING THROUGH AND KEEPING THE TROUGH IN PLACE...H500 HEIGHTS
WILL BE ON A SLOW INCREASE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODERATING TREND
IN TEMPERATURES...FROM READINGS AROUND 70 ON TUESDAY TO THE UPPER
70S ON THURSDAY.

THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW DIURNALLY-FORCED ISOLATED
SHRA EACH AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO NW PA ON
TUESDAY AS MOISTURE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE IS BETTER...AND CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED IN
MOST AREAS. UPPER COLD POOL ALSO PASSES OVERHEAD...WHICH WILL
ENHANCE INSTABILITY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO. THURSDAY WILL SEE LESS ACTIVITY...AND LITTLE THUNDER
CHANCE...AS COLD POOL SLIDES AWAY AND H500 HEIGHTS CONTINUE THEIR
RISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
H500 HEIGHTS RISE A BIT MORE FRIDAY..ALLOWING A FEW LOCATIONS TO
TOUCH THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS. ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS ONCE
AGAIN...PARTICULARLY IN THE NW. MODELS THEN HINT THAT THE TROUGH
GETS REINFORCED SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND...KNOCKING TEMPERATURES
BACK A COUPLE OF DEGREES. BETTER SHOWER CHANCES RETURN AS
WELL...WITH CHANCE POPS EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY AS MINOR WAVES ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROUGH. LEFT THUNDER OUT FOR NOW BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
OVER THE WEEKEND. ALL IN ALL...NO MAJOR SYSTEMS OR SUMMER HEAT
FORESEEN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH THE MAIN SFC LOW PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA...MVFR TO IFR STRATUS
IS OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE AREA. WITH COPIOUS LLVL MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WILL
NOT BE EXPECTING MUCH IMPROVEMENT THROUGH MIDDAY. SHOWER CHANCES
WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD AIR WILL
GIVE RISE TO SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES. THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW WILL COMBINE FOR GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WITH CLOUDS BREAKING UP
TONIGHT. A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281046
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
646 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN TODAY WITH
A DRYING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FELT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC LOW PULLING AWAY EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT ITS
INFLUENCE WILL STILL REMAIN TODAY. ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE SFC
LOW ANOTHER MID-LEVEL VORT LOBE IS SWINGING DOWN FROM NEAR LAKE
ERIE. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE ON THE INCREASE CURRENTLY AND WILL
BEGIN TO STREAM IN ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH MIDDAY. EXPECTING TO
SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE IN SPATIAL
COVERAGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRENGTH
WILL REMAIN LIMITED...HOWEVER...AS INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL AT
BEST DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE HOMOGENEOUS CLOUD COVER. EXPECTING
GUSTY WINDS AS THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND
COLD AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE LOW. NEAR TERM MODELS ARE A LITTLE
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE EROSION OF THE LLVL MOISTURE THIS EVENING
AND THUS HAVE SPED UP THE DRYING AND CLEARING TREND TONIGHT. MUCH
COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED TODAY AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. WE COULD
EVEN SEE SOME RECORD LOW HIGHS CHALLENGED.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST
DURING MIDWEEK...AS UPPER LOW CENTER SINKS SOUTHWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN END OF HUDSON BAY. ALTHOUGH WEAK VORT MAXES WILL BE
ROTATING THROUGH AND KEEPING THE TROUGH IN PLACE...H500 HEIGHTS
WILL BE ON A SLOW INCREASE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODERATING TREND
IN TEMPERATURES...FROM READINGS AROUND 70 ON TUESDAY TO THE UPPER
70S ON THURSDAY.

THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW DIURNALLY-FORCED ISOLATED
SHRA EACH AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO NW PA ON
TUESDAY AS MOISTURE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE IS BETTER...AND CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED IN
MOST AREAS. UPPER COLD POOL ALSO PASSES OVERHEAD...WHICH WILL
ENHANCE INSTABILITY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO. THURSDAY WILL SEE LESS ACTIVITY...AND LITTLE THUNDER
CHANCE...AS COLD POOL SLIDES AWAY AND H500 HEIGHTS CONTINUE THEIR
RISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
H500 HEIGHTS RISE A BIT MORE FRIDAY..ALLOWING A FEW LOCATIONS TO
TOUCH THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS. ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS ONCE
AGAIN...PARTICULARLY IN THE NW. MODELS THEN HINT THAT THE TROUGH
GETS REINFORCED SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND...KNOCKING TEMPERATURES
BACK A COUPLE OF DEGREES. BETTER SHOWER CHANCES RETURN AS
WELL...WITH CHANCE POPS EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY AS MINOR WAVES ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROUGH. LEFT THUNDER OUT FOR NOW BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
OVER THE WEEKEND. ALL IN ALL...NO MAJOR SYSTEMS OR SUMMER HEAT
FORESEEN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH THE MAIN SFC LOW PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA...MVFR TO IFR STRATUS
IS OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE AREA. WITH COPIOUS LLVL MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WILL
NOT BE EXPECTING MUCH IMPROVEMENT THROUGH MIDDAY. SHOWER CHANCES
WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD AIR WILL
GIVE RISE TO SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES. THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW WILL COMBINE FOR GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WITH CLOUDS BREAKING UP
TONIGHT. A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280834
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
434 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN TODAY WITH
A DRYING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FELT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...SO DO THE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT CLEARED THE AREA BY ABOUT 05Z. THE CURRENT
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE DRY CONVEYOR BELT PUSHING IN ACROSS OUR
SOUTH WORKING TOWARDS A TEMPORARY DRYING TREND...AND EVEN BREAKING
UP THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...ANOTHER VORT LOBE ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW IS SWINGING THROUGH LAKE ERIE CURRENTLY.
ALREADY SEEING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERATING OFF
OF RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAKING THEIR WAY ON SHORE NEAR
KCLE. HAVE THIS WAVE TIMED TO REACH OUR NWRN PERIPHERY BY ABOUT
09Z WITH SHOWER CHANCES INCREASING SOUTHWESTWARD ONCE AGAIN
THROUGH MID-MORNING. WHILE WE WILL SEE SPATIAL COVERAGE OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASE SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA TODAY...STRENGTH
WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS INSTABILITY WANES. EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS AS
THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND COLD AIR ADVECTS
IN BEHIND THE LOW. NEAR TERM MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE EROSION OF THE LLVL MOISTURE THIS EVENING AND THUS HAVE SPED
UP THE DRYING TREND TONIGHT.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST
DURING MIDWEEK...AS UPPER LOW CENTER SINKS SOUTHWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN END OF HUDSON BAY. ALTHOUGH WEAK VORT MAXES WILL BE
ROTATING THROUGH AND KEEPING THE TROUGH IN PLACE...H500 HEIGHTS
WILL BE ON A SLOW INCREASE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODERATING TREND
IN TEMPERATURES...FROM READINGS AROUND 70 ON TUESDAY TO THE UPPER
70S ON THURSDAY.

THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW DIURNALLY-FORCED ISOLATED
SHRA EACH AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO NW PA ON
TUESDAY AS MOISTURE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE IS BETTER...AND CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED IN
MOST AREAS. UPPER COLD POOL ALSO PASSES OVERHEAD...WHICH WILL
ENHANCE INSTABILITY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO. THURSDAY WILL SEE LESS ACTIVITY...AND LITTLE THUNDER
CHANCE...AS COLD POOL SLIDES AWAY AND H500 HEIGHTS CONTINUE THEIR
RISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
H500 HEIGHTS RISE A BIT MORE FRIDAY..ALLOWING A FEW LOCATIONS TO
TOUCH THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS. ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS ONCE
AGAIN...PARTICULARLY IN THE NW. MODELS THEN HINT THAT THE TROUGH
GETS REINFORCED SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND...KNOCKING TEMPERATURES
BACK A COUPLE OF DEGREES. BETTER SHOWER CHANCES RETURN AS
WELL...WITH CHANCE POPS EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY AS MINOR WAVES ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROUGH. LEFT THUNDER OUT FOR NOW BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
OVER THE WEEKEND. ALL IN ALL...NO MAJOR SYSTEMS OR SUMMER HEAT
FORESEEN.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH THE MAIN SFC LOW PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA...DRIER AIR IS MOVING
IN ALOFT WITH CLOUD COVER AT VARYING STAGES. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ARE CONTINUING TO BREAK UP AND LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP.
EXPECTING STRATUS AND VIS RESTRICTIONS TO SPREAD THROUGHOUT...BUT
TIMING WILL BE DIFFICULT PINPOINT. SHOWER CHANCES WILL ALSO
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD AIR WILL GIVE RISE
TO SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW WILL COMBINE FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS TODAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WITH CLOUDS BREAKING UP TONIGHT.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280834
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
434 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN TODAY WITH
A DRYING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FELT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...SO DO THE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT CLEARED THE AREA BY ABOUT 05Z. THE CURRENT
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE DRY CONVEYOR BELT PUSHING IN ACROSS OUR
SOUTH WORKING TOWARDS A TEMPORARY DRYING TREND...AND EVEN BREAKING
UP THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...ANOTHER VORT LOBE ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW IS SWINGING THROUGH LAKE ERIE CURRENTLY.
ALREADY SEEING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERATING OFF
OF RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAKING THEIR WAY ON SHORE NEAR
KCLE. HAVE THIS WAVE TIMED TO REACH OUR NWRN PERIPHERY BY ABOUT
09Z WITH SHOWER CHANCES INCREASING SOUTHWESTWARD ONCE AGAIN
THROUGH MID-MORNING. WHILE WE WILL SEE SPATIAL COVERAGE OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASE SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA TODAY...STRENGTH
WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS INSTABILITY WANES. EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS AS
THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND COLD AIR ADVECTS
IN BEHIND THE LOW. NEAR TERM MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE EROSION OF THE LLVL MOISTURE THIS EVENING AND THUS HAVE SPED
UP THE DRYING TREND TONIGHT.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST
DURING MIDWEEK...AS UPPER LOW CENTER SINKS SOUTHWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN END OF HUDSON BAY. ALTHOUGH WEAK VORT MAXES WILL BE
ROTATING THROUGH AND KEEPING THE TROUGH IN PLACE...H500 HEIGHTS
WILL BE ON A SLOW INCREASE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODERATING TREND
IN TEMPERATURES...FROM READINGS AROUND 70 ON TUESDAY TO THE UPPER
70S ON THURSDAY.

THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW DIURNALLY-FORCED ISOLATED
SHRA EACH AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO NW PA ON
TUESDAY AS MOISTURE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE IS BETTER...AND CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED IN
MOST AREAS. UPPER COLD POOL ALSO PASSES OVERHEAD...WHICH WILL
ENHANCE INSTABILITY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO. THURSDAY WILL SEE LESS ACTIVITY...AND LITTLE THUNDER
CHANCE...AS COLD POOL SLIDES AWAY AND H500 HEIGHTS CONTINUE THEIR
RISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
H500 HEIGHTS RISE A BIT MORE FRIDAY..ALLOWING A FEW LOCATIONS TO
TOUCH THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS. ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS ONCE
AGAIN...PARTICULARLY IN THE NW. MODELS THEN HINT THAT THE TROUGH
GETS REINFORCED SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND...KNOCKING TEMPERATURES
BACK A COUPLE OF DEGREES. BETTER SHOWER CHANCES RETURN AS
WELL...WITH CHANCE POPS EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY AS MINOR WAVES ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROUGH. LEFT THUNDER OUT FOR NOW BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
OVER THE WEEKEND. ALL IN ALL...NO MAJOR SYSTEMS OR SUMMER HEAT
FORESEEN.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH THE MAIN SFC LOW PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA...DRIER AIR IS MOVING
IN ALOFT WITH CLOUD COVER AT VARYING STAGES. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ARE CONTINUING TO BREAK UP AND LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP.
EXPECTING STRATUS AND VIS RESTRICTIONS TO SPREAD THROUGHOUT...BUT
TIMING WILL BE DIFFICULT PINPOINT. SHOWER CHANCES WILL ALSO
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD AIR WILL GIVE RISE
TO SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW WILL COMBINE FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS TODAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WITH CLOUDS BREAKING UP TONIGHT.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280610
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
210 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN TODAY WITH
A DRYING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FELT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...SO DO THE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT CLEARED THE AREA BY ABOUT 05Z. THE CURRENT
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE DRY CONVEYOR BELT PUSHING IN ACROSS OUR
SOUTH WORKING TOWARDS A TEMPORARY DRYING TREND...AND EVEN BREAKING
UP THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...ANOTHER VORT LOBE ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW IS SWINGING THROUGH LAKE ERIE CURRENTLY.
ALREADY SEEING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERATING OFF
OF RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAKING THEIR WAY ON SHORE NEAR
KCLE. HAVE THIS WAVE TIMED TO REACH OUR NWRN PERIPHERY BY ABOUT
09Z WITH SHOWER CHANCES INCREASING SOUTHWESTWARD ONCE AGAIN
THROUGH MID-MORNING. WHILE WE WILL SEE SPATIAL COVERAGE OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASE SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA TODAY...STRENGTH
WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS INSTABILITY WANES. EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS AS
THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND COLD AIR ADVECTS
IN BEHIND THE LOW. NEAR TERM MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE EROSION OF THE LLVL MOISTURE THIS EVENING AND THUS HAVE SPED
UP THE DRYING TREND TONIGHT.
TAX



&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON
MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD
COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED.

SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND
COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH THE MAIN SFC LOW PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA...DRIER AIR IS MOVING
IN ALOFT WITH CLOUD COVER AT VARYING STAGES. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ARE CONTINUING TO BREAK UP AND LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP.
EXPECTING STRATUS AND VIS RESTRICTIONS TO SPREAD THROUGHOUT...BUT
TIMING WILL BE DIFFICULT PINPOINT. SHOWER CHANCES WILL ALSO
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD AIR WILL GIVE RISE
TO SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW WILL COMBINE FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS TODAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WITH CLOUDS BREAKING UP TONIGHT.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280610
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
210 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN TODAY WITH
A DRYING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FELT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...SO DO THE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT CLEARED THE AREA BY ABOUT 05Z. THE CURRENT
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE DRY CONVEYOR BELT PUSHING IN ACROSS OUR
SOUTH WORKING TOWARDS A TEMPORARY DRYING TREND...AND EVEN BREAKING
UP THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...ANOTHER VORT LOBE ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW IS SWINGING THROUGH LAKE ERIE CURRENTLY.
ALREADY SEEING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERATING OFF
OF RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAKING THEIR WAY ON SHORE NEAR
KCLE. HAVE THIS WAVE TIMED TO REACH OUR NWRN PERIPHERY BY ABOUT
09Z WITH SHOWER CHANCES INCREASING SOUTHWESTWARD ONCE AGAIN
THROUGH MID-MORNING. WHILE WE WILL SEE SPATIAL COVERAGE OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASE SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA TODAY...STRENGTH
WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS INSTABILITY WANES. EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS AS
THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND COLD AIR ADVECTS
IN BEHIND THE LOW. NEAR TERM MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE EROSION OF THE LLVL MOISTURE THIS EVENING AND THUS HAVE SPED
UP THE DRYING TREND TONIGHT.
TAX



&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON
MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD
COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED.

SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND
COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH THE MAIN SFC LOW PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA...DRIER AIR IS MOVING
IN ALOFT WITH CLOUD COVER AT VARYING STAGES. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ARE CONTINUING TO BREAK UP AND LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP.
EXPECTING STRATUS AND VIS RESTRICTIONS TO SPREAD THROUGHOUT...BUT
TIMING WILL BE DIFFICULT PINPOINT. SHOWER CHANCES WILL ALSO
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD AIR WILL GIVE RISE
TO SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW WILL COMBINE FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS TODAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WITH CLOUDS BREAKING UP TONIGHT.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280142
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
942 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME SEVERE...WILL PLAGUE THE
UPPER OHIO REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO ADVANCE
TOWARD THE AREA...WHICH HAS BROUGHT ABOUT A SECONDARY INCREASE IN
STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. WHILE
THESE STORMS RAGED OFF OF LAKE ERIE WITH MULTIPLE HOOK ECHOES IN A
LINE ECHO WAVE PATTERN OVER THE WARM LAKE...THIS HAS LARGELY
TURNED INTO BOWING SEGMENTS THAT WILL HAVE INCREASING DIFFICULTY
MANAGING ANY DOWNBURSTS TOWARD THE GROUND AS THEY ENCOUNTER
PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE LOW LEVELS MOVING DEEPER INTO OHIO AND
PENNSYLVANIA. AS SUCH TORNADO WATCH 447 WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE/WAS
CANCELLED FOR OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

FARTHER SOUTH...850 MB CONVERGENCE IS MANAGING TO MAINTAIN A LINE
OF PREFERRED DEVELOPMENT THAT BISECT TUCKER COUNTY WEST VIRGINIA.
HERE...AMPLE INSTABILITY AND A STILL FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE AHEAD
OF THE INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MANAGED TO MAINTAIN ROTATING
UPDRAFTS ALONG SAID CONVERGENCE AREA. AS SUCH...TUCKER COUNTY WAS
PUT INTO A BRAND NEW TORNADO WATCH 551.  FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON
MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD
COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED.

SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND
COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BASICALLY MOVED AWAY FROM MOST TERMINALS
EXCEPT KFKL. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE FROM THE WEST...WHICH WILL
BRING ANOTHER SHOT AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
NIGHTTIME...WITH STRATUS AND VIS RESTRICTIONS LIKELY OVERNIGHT
TOWARD MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS. SHOWER CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD AIR REMAINS
OVERHEAD. FRIES

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280142
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
942 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME SEVERE...WILL PLAGUE THE
UPPER OHIO REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO ADVANCE
TOWARD THE AREA...WHICH HAS BROUGHT ABOUT A SECONDARY INCREASE IN
STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. WHILE
THESE STORMS RAGED OFF OF LAKE ERIE WITH MULTIPLE HOOK ECHOES IN A
LINE ECHO WAVE PATTERN OVER THE WARM LAKE...THIS HAS LARGELY
TURNED INTO BOWING SEGMENTS THAT WILL HAVE INCREASING DIFFICULTY
MANAGING ANY DOWNBURSTS TOWARD THE GROUND AS THEY ENCOUNTER
PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE LOW LEVELS MOVING DEEPER INTO OHIO AND
PENNSYLVANIA. AS SUCH TORNADO WATCH 447 WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE/WAS
CANCELLED FOR OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

FARTHER SOUTH...850 MB CONVERGENCE IS MANAGING TO MAINTAIN A LINE
OF PREFERRED DEVELOPMENT THAT BISECT TUCKER COUNTY WEST VIRGINIA.
HERE...AMPLE INSTABILITY AND A STILL FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE AHEAD
OF THE INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MANAGED TO MAINTAIN ROTATING
UPDRAFTS ALONG SAID CONVERGENCE AREA. AS SUCH...TUCKER COUNTY WAS
PUT INTO A BRAND NEW TORNADO WATCH 551.  FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON
MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD
COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED.

SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND
COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BASICALLY MOVED AWAY FROM MOST TERMINALS
EXCEPT KFKL. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE FROM THE WEST...WHICH WILL
BRING ANOTHER SHOT AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
NIGHTTIME...WITH STRATUS AND VIS RESTRICTIONS LIKELY OVERNIGHT
TOWARD MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS. SHOWER CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD AIR REMAINS
OVERHEAD. FRIES

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 272236
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
636 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME SEVERE...WILL PLAGUE THE
UPPER OHIO REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION FROM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAS GENERALLY
WORKED OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS POINT. OUTFLOW
ENHANCED ASCENT SEEMS TO BE MAINTAINING UPDRAFTS ALONG A LINE OF
HEAVIER ACTIVITY NORTH OF I-80...AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
COMBINED WITH INFLOW OF MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST
SEEMS TO MAINTAINING THE ACTIVITY ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH SEEMS TO BE SAGGING
FURTHER SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING AS THE COLD POOL FROM THE HEART OF
THE FORECAST AREA EXPANDS WITH TIME.

THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL LOW CONTINUE TO BE
FORECAST TO ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING...WHICH
WILL YIELD A SECONDARY INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS...HOWEVER GIVEN A LACK OF SURFACE INVOLVEMENT BY
THAT JUNCTURE...ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED TO JUST THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT DOES SLIDE THROUGH...POPS ARE
SECONDARILY INCREASED TOWARD LIKELIES ACROSS THE AREA FOR A FEW
HOURS. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON
MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD
COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED.

SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND
COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BASICALLY MOVED AWAY FROM MOST TERMINALS
EXCEPT KFKL. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE FROM THE WEST...WHICH WILL
BRING ANOTHER SHOT AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
NIGHTTIME...WITH STRATUS AND VIS RESTRICTIONS LIKELY OVERNIGHT
TOWARD MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS. SHOWER CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD AIR REMAINS
OVERHEAD. FRIES

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 272236
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
636 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME SEVERE...WILL PLAGUE THE
UPPER OHIO REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION FROM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAS GENERALLY
WORKED OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS POINT. OUTFLOW
ENHANCED ASCENT SEEMS TO BE MAINTAINING UPDRAFTS ALONG A LINE OF
HEAVIER ACTIVITY NORTH OF I-80...AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
COMBINED WITH INFLOW OF MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST
SEEMS TO MAINTAINING THE ACTIVITY ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH SEEMS TO BE SAGGING
FURTHER SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING AS THE COLD POOL FROM THE HEART OF
THE FORECAST AREA EXPANDS WITH TIME.

THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL LOW CONTINUE TO BE
FORECAST TO ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING...WHICH
WILL YIELD A SECONDARY INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS...HOWEVER GIVEN A LACK OF SURFACE INVOLVEMENT BY
THAT JUNCTURE...ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED TO JUST THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT DOES SLIDE THROUGH...POPS ARE
SECONDARILY INCREASED TOWARD LIKELIES ACROSS THE AREA FOR A FEW
HOURS. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON
MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD
COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED.

SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND
COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BASICALLY MOVED AWAY FROM MOST TERMINALS
EXCEPT KFKL. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE FROM THE WEST...WHICH WILL
BRING ANOTHER SHOT AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
NIGHTTIME...WITH STRATUS AND VIS RESTRICTIONS LIKELY OVERNIGHT
TOWARD MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS. SHOWER CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD AIR REMAINS
OVERHEAD. FRIES

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 272008
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
408 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME SEVERE...WILL PLAGUE THE
UPPER OHIO REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MULTIPLE MESOSCALE FORCED BOUNDARIES SEEM TO BE LAYING OUT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...AND SEEM TO BE THE MAIN FOCI FOR
STORM INITIATION AS OF THIS HOUR. THE FIRST OF THESE SEEMS TO
EXTEND GENERALLY FROM NEW PHILADELPHIA EASTWARD...AND HAS A FAIRLY
DISCERNIBLE MESOLOW TRACKING DOWN IT ASSISTING WITH ASCENT.
ANOTHER NEWER LINEAR FEATURE CAN ALSO BE NOTED ON RADAR ALONG THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND GIVEN RUC/NAM DATA...THIS
IS LIKELY THE RADAR MANIFESTATION OF AN AREA OF 850 MB CONVERGENCE
THAT SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING. AS SUCH...WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN
THESE AREAS...WITH STILL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE ELSEWHERE
GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY AND A FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE. TRAINING
DOWN THESE AREAS OF ENHANCED FOCUSING FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING...SO THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS NON-
ZERO...PARTICULARLY ACROSS AREAS FROM PITTSBURGH SOUTH AND
EAST...WHERE LAST NIGHT`S RAINFALL WAS LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT.

OTHERWISE...A FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE THROUGH THE EVENING WILL
CONTINUE TO MAKE UP FOR A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY...AND
GIVEN CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN TIER OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THE CHANCE OF ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL
GOOD. AS IS THE CASE WITH THESE...LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. SPC HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 9 PM FOR THIS.

THE MID-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TOWARD THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE MID-LEVEL UNSTABLE EVEN AS THE
LOWER LEVELS BEGIN TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION. WITH STRONG LAPSE RATES ALOFT
CONTINUING...HOWEVER...SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON
MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD
COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED.

SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND
COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STG TO SVR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED INTO ERLY EVE WITH ADVNG LOW PRES.
TEMPO TSTM MENTIONS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR ALL PORTS.
THEREAFTER...EXPECT MVFR TO DEVELOP OVRNGT IN ST/SC AND SHWRS.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 272008
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
408 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME SEVERE...WILL PLAGUE THE
UPPER OHIO REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MULTIPLE MESOSCALE FORCED BOUNDARIES SEEM TO BE LAYING OUT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...AND SEEM TO BE THE MAIN FOCI FOR
STORM INITIATION AS OF THIS HOUR. THE FIRST OF THESE SEEMS TO
EXTEND GENERALLY FROM NEW PHILADELPHIA EASTWARD...AND HAS A FAIRLY
DISCERNIBLE MESOLOW TRACKING DOWN IT ASSISTING WITH ASCENT.
ANOTHER NEWER LINEAR FEATURE CAN ALSO BE NOTED ON RADAR ALONG THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND GIVEN RUC/NAM DATA...THIS
IS LIKELY THE RADAR MANIFESTATION OF AN AREA OF 850 MB CONVERGENCE
THAT SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING. AS SUCH...WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN
THESE AREAS...WITH STILL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE ELSEWHERE
GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY AND A FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE. TRAINING
DOWN THESE AREAS OF ENHANCED FOCUSING FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING...SO THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS NON-
ZERO...PARTICULARLY ACROSS AREAS FROM PITTSBURGH SOUTH AND
EAST...WHERE LAST NIGHT`S RAINFALL WAS LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT.

OTHERWISE...A FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE THROUGH THE EVENING WILL
CONTINUE TO MAKE UP FOR A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY...AND
GIVEN CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN TIER OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THE CHANCE OF ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL
GOOD. AS IS THE CASE WITH THESE...LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. SPC HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 9 PM FOR THIS.

THE MID-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TOWARD THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE MID-LEVEL UNSTABLE EVEN AS THE
LOWER LEVELS BEGIN TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION. WITH STRONG LAPSE RATES ALOFT
CONTINUING...HOWEVER...SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON
MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD
COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED.

SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND
COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STG TO SVR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED INTO ERLY EVE WITH ADVNG LOW PRES.
TEMPO TSTM MENTIONS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR ALL PORTS.
THEREAFTER...EXPECT MVFR TO DEVELOP OVRNGT IN ST/SC AND SHWRS.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271804
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
204 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME SEVERE...WILL PLAGUE THE
UPPER OHIO REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID AFTN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST FOR TORNADO WATCH AND HOURLY
TRENDS BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES.

TSTMS WL CONT DVLPG AS SFC TEMPS ARE NR/EXCEED CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS...AND
AS MID LVLS COOL WITH THE ADVN OF GREAT LAKES LOW PRES. DEEP LYR
SHEAR WL ALSO INCRS AS MID...AND LOW LVL FLOWS IMPROVE INTO THE EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SWING IN BEHIND IT. STORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON
MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD
COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED.

SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND
COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STG TO SVR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED INTO ERLY EVE WITH ADVNG LOW PRES.
TEMPO TSTM MENTIONS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR ALL PORTS.
THEREAFTER...EXPECT MVFR TO DEVELOP OVRNGT IN ST/SC AND SHWRS.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271804
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
204 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME SEVERE...WILL PLAGUE THE
UPPER OHIO REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID AFTN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST FOR TORNADO WATCH AND HOURLY
TRENDS BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES.

TSTMS WL CONT DVLPG AS SFC TEMPS ARE NR/EXCEED CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS...AND
AS MID LVLS COOL WITH THE ADVN OF GREAT LAKES LOW PRES. DEEP LYR
SHEAR WL ALSO INCRS AS MID...AND LOW LVL FLOWS IMPROVE INTO THE EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SWING IN BEHIND IT. STORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON
MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD
COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED.

SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND
COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STG TO SVR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED INTO ERLY EVE WITH ADVNG LOW PRES.
TEMPO TSTM MENTIONS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR ALL PORTS.
THEREAFTER...EXPECT MVFR TO DEVELOP OVRNGT IN ST/SC AND SHWRS.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271613
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1213 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH THE RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER...WILL INCREASE TODAY. COOLER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY AFTN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST FOR HOURLY TRENDS OF POPS
BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES. TEMP FORECAST IS
GENLY ON TRACK...ALTHOUGH CLD COVER ALNG NWD LIFTING CNVRGNC HAVE
RETARDED HEATING OVR COUNTIES BTN THE PA TURNPIKE AND I 70.

TSTMS HAVE DVLPD ALNG THAT ZONE OVR CNTRL AND WRN OH...AND ARE
EXPECTED TO CONT DVLPG EWD. OVRALL TRENDS CONT TO FAVOR A SEVERE
EVENT LTR THIS AFTN AND THIS EVE AS THE PARENT LOW CONTS DVLPG OUT
OF THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SWING IN BEHIND IT. STORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON
MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD
COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED.

SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND
COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXP STG TO SVR TSTMS TO DVLP THIS AFTN INTO ERLY EVE WITH ADVNG
LOW PRES. INCLUDED TEMPO TSTM MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR THE MOST
LIKELY TIMES AT EACH PORT. EXP MVFR TO REDEVELOP OVRNGT IN ST/SC.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271613
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1213 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH THE RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER...WILL INCREASE TODAY. COOLER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY AFTN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST FOR HOURLY TRENDS OF POPS
BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES. TEMP FORECAST IS
GENLY ON TRACK...ALTHOUGH CLD COVER ALNG NWD LIFTING CNVRGNC HAVE
RETARDED HEATING OVR COUNTIES BTN THE PA TURNPIKE AND I 70.

TSTMS HAVE DVLPD ALNG THAT ZONE OVR CNTRL AND WRN OH...AND ARE
EXPECTED TO CONT DVLPG EWD. OVRALL TRENDS CONT TO FAVOR A SEVERE
EVENT LTR THIS AFTN AND THIS EVE AS THE PARENT LOW CONTS DVLPG OUT
OF THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SWING IN BEHIND IT. STORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON
MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD
COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED.

SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND
COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXP STG TO SVR TSTMS TO DVLP THIS AFTN INTO ERLY EVE WITH ADVNG
LOW PRES. INCLUDED TEMPO TSTM MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR THE MOST
LIKELY TIMES AT EACH PORT. EXP MVFR TO REDEVELOP OVRNGT IN ST/SC.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15






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