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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290706
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
306 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm temperatures and scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected today. High pressure should result in dry weather for
Memorial Day through mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A shortwave is progged to cross the upper Ohio valley region
today. Instability is expected to increase with daytime heating,
and scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop as
convective temperatures are reached. Expecting more coverage of
precip today than in recent days with the shortwave support.
Temperatures are expected to average around 10 degrees above
seasonal levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms should decrease tonight as the
shortwave exits. Building surface high pressure should bring
mainly dry weather for Memorial Day through mid week. Temperatures
are expected to average around 10 degrees above seasonal levels
using a blend of GFS gridded MOS and consensus guidance.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Models in good overall agreement on a cold front approaching the
region by thursday afternoon and attempting to push east by
friday. A shortwave ahead of a trough axis moving across the great
lakes may slow progression of front friday until trough passes so
chance pops continued. No significant changes for saturday with
chance pops mainly for the ridges with lingering low level
moisture. Above normal temperatures mid week will begin to trend
toward the seasonal average late week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Patchy mvfr fog into the early morning hours otherwise VFR
conditions through the taf period. While better coverage of
afternoon thunderstorms is expected, still low probability at any
one port, and vcts continued from kpit south and east. Winds will
be light southwest.

.OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The next chance for more widespread restrictions will be with a front
will approach the region late Thursday.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290059
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
859 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm temperatures with periodic shower and thunderstorm chances
are expected through the weekend. High pressure should result in
dry weather for Memorial Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Storms with heavy rainfall are continuing in eastern
Fayette/Westmoreland Counties, as well as along a persistent
outflow boundary from earlier convection moving across the central
portion of the county warning area. Have extended PoPs a little
longer into the evening, but still expect most activity to die
down by midnight with the loss of heating. Minor changes to rest
of forecast.

Previous discussion for tomorrow...

Increased moisture in southerly flow along with a crossing
shortwave will result in better thunderstorm coverage beginning Sunday
afternoon and tapering off overnight after the passage of the
trough.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Building surface high pressure should bring mainly dry weather
for Memorial Day and Tuesday. Temperatures are expected to average
around 10 degrees above seasonal levels.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure across the eastern United States should allow for
dry weather Tuesday night and Wednesday. The GFS and ECMWF are
coming in better agreement that an upper level trough and associated
cold front will approach the region late Thursday into Friday and
have bumped up pops slightly. However, the ECMWF is more
progressive with pushing precipitation to the east by late Friday,
while the GFS and GEFS continue the chance of showers in
Saturday. Above normal temperatures mid week will begin to trend
toward the seasonal average by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions expected for most ports through the operational TAF
period as a ridge of high pressure remains in place. A few
lingering showers this evening will dwindle with the setting sun.
Light surface flow and no change in air mass will mean similar
conditions overnight as 24 hours ago. Not expecting fog to
develop...save for the few locations where rain managed to fall
over the airfield...KLBE and KFKL. Have mentioned MVFR visibility
restrictions for these two locations.

Thunderstorm coverage should increase Sunday afternoon with a
passing shortwave trough...so carrying VCTS in most TAFs.

.OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The next chance for more widespread restrictions will be with a front
will approach the region late Thursday.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 282325
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
725 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm temperatures with periodic shower and thunderstorm chances
are expected through the weekend. High pressure should result in
dry weather for Memorial Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Made some minor updates to PoPs and temperature this evening.
The most activity has been seen in the Laurel Highlands with some
localized heavy rainfall totals in Fayette County. The rest of the
region has seen more isolated activity. Expect a typical diurnal
downward trend towards sunset, with most activity ceasing by 03Z
or so.

Previous discussion for tomorrow...

Increased moisture in southerly flow along with a crossing
shortwave will result in better thunderstorm coverage beginning Sunday
afternoon and tapering off overnight after the passage of the
trough.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Building surface high pressure should bring mainly dry weather
for Memorial Day and Tuesday. Temperatures are expected to average
around 10 degrees above seasonal levels.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure across the eastern United States should allow for
dry weather Tuesday night and Wednesday. The GFS and ECMWF are
coming in better agreement that an upper level trough and associated
cold front will approach the region late Thursday into Friday and
have bumped up pops slightly. However, the ECMWF is more
progressive with pushing precipitation to the east by late Friday,
while the GFS and GEFS continue the chance of showers in
Saturday. Above normal temperatures mid week will begin to trend
toward the seasonal average by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions expected for most ports through the operational TAF
period as a ridge of high pressure remains in place. A few
lingering showers this evening will dwindle with the setting sun.
Light surface flow and no change in air mass will mean similar
conditions overnight as 24 hours ago. Not expecting fog to
develop...save for the few locations where rain managed to fall
over the airfield...KLBE and KFKL. Have mentioned MVFR visibility
restrictions for these two locations.

Thunderstorm coverage should increase Sunday afternoon with a
passing shortwave trough...so carrying VCTS in most TAFs.

.OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The next chance for more widespread restrictions will be with a front
will approach the region late Thursday.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270027 AAB
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
827 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm temperatures with shower and thunderstorm chances are
expected through the holiday weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
830pm update...have removed pops for the overnight period.
Atmosphere has quickly stabilized and we have lost most of the
cloud cover. Will probably see an increase in clouds overnight,
but don`t expect any activity. Temperatures have again been updated
with latest hires guidance.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Minimal day-to-day change expected through the period as the
forecast area remains parked under a eastern CONUS ridge.
Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal levels with
dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. Diurnal chances for
showers/storms can be expected each day with daytime heating but
there does not appear to be any significant features to focus
activity until late on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The eastern CONUS ridge is progged by ensemble guidance to shift
east off the coast by early next week. Mainly diurnal shower and
thunderstorm chances are expected in the moist, unstable
atmosphere west of the ridge through much of the long term
period. Models differ on the handling of a low across the
Carolinas by mid week, and the northern extent of any associated
precip. Used adjusted Superblend guidance through the period to
account for the uncertainty and varying operation model solutions.
Temperatures are expected to remain above seasonal levels.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions will persist through the evening hours. Towards
morning, increasingly moist low levels will allow for MVFR fog
formation at most terminals, with some IFR ceiling possible at
FKL/DUJ. A weak wave may provide a few overnight showers but
chances are too low for inclusion.

VFR will be reestablished by midmorning Friday as fog dissipates
and ceilings lift. An isolated shower or storm remains possible
Friday afternoon, but again, not enough confidence in ocurrence
for a VCSH/VCTS mention at this time.
CL


.OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Restriction chances in afternoon/evening convection will continue
through the holiday weekend.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 262334
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
734 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm temperatures with shower and thunderstorm chances are
expected through the holiday weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
540pm update...showers had developed ahead of weak shortwave, but
are finding it hard to maintain structure as warm air aloft is
providing a cap. With sunset, expect any lingering activity to
dissipate. Another shortwave is expected to cross Ohio later this
evening and then Western Pennsylvania overnight. Latest models are
showing some scattered development with this energy, however 18z
models seem to be overdoing precipitation with this feature.
Looking closer at latest mesoanalysis from SPC, the most unstable
air remains well to our southwest where this afternoon`s MCS set
it course toward. Additionally, atmospheric trends are showing a
slow stabilization over the area, which will only be increased
with dusk. Have limited pop coverage overnight and kept them in
the slight chance range. Also adjusted cloud cover and modified
temperatures with the latest hires numbers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Minimal day-to-day change expected through the period as the
forecast area remains parked under a eastern CONUS ridge.
Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal levels with
dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. Diurnal chances for
showers/storms can be expected each day with daytime heating but
there does not appear to be any significant features to focus
activity until late on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The eastern CONUS ridge is progged by ensemble guidance to shift
east off the coast by early next week. Mainly diurnal shower and
thunderstorm chances are expected in the moist, unstable
atmosphere west of the ridge through much of the long term
period. Models differ on the handling of a low across the
Carolinas by mid week, and the northern extent of any associated
precip. Used adjusted Superblend guidance through the period to
account for the uncertainty and varying operation model solutions.
Temperatures are expected to remain above seasonal levels.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions will persist through the evening hours. Towards
morning, increasingly moist low levels will allow for MVFR fog
formation at most terminals, with some IFR ceiling possible at
FKL/DUJ. A weak wave may provide a few overnight showers but
chances are too low for inclusion.

VFR will be reestablished by midmorning Friday as fog dissipates
and ceilings lift. An isolated shower or storm remains possible
Friday afternoon, but again, not enough confidence in ocurrence
for a VCSH/VCTS mention at this time.
CL


.OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Restriction chances in afternoon/evening convection will continue
through the holiday weekend.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$





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