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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 021842
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
242 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT. DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER RETURNS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESS AND APPROACHING THE WESTERN BORDER
OF THE CWA. IT WILL SWING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EXIT THE EAST
BY 00Z. SECONDARY DEWPOINT BOUNDARY BACK NEAR DTW AND FDY WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT. STILL SOME FAIRLY THICK CLOUD COVER
IN SPOTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT MORE SUN
ACROSS THE SOUTH HAS LED TO BETTER DESTABILIZATION...WITH UP TO
2000 J/KG NOTED ON SPC MESOANALYSIS. STILL DO NOT SEE A WIDESPREAD
SEVERE THREAT...BUT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY PLUS MARGINAL 0-6KM
SHEAR OF 35-40 KNOTS MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST A COUPLE STORMS WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED WATER PROBLEMS OVER
LOW FFG AREAS AS WELL GIVEN THE RIBBON OF UP TO 1.8 INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER ALONG THE FRONT...PLUS UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW
SUPPORTING THE POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING CELLS. HAVE DECREASED POPS
A BIT FROM EARLIER BUT HAVE MAINTAINED LIKELY VALUES WITH FROPA.
KEPT CHANCE POPS BEHIND INITIAL FRONT AS ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA MAY
ACCOMPANY THE DEWPOINT BOUNDARY FURTHER WEST.

CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. THINK LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE REALIZED MORE AS FOG THAN STRATUS
OVERNIGHT WITH GRADIENT SLACKENING...AND HAVE INSERTED VALLEY FOG
CWA-WIDE. WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. EXPECTING AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT...BUT SHRA POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE KEPT IN CHECK BY CAPPING ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL EVEN BEHIND THE
FRONT...AS H500 HEIGHTS REMAIN A BIT HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRIER AND TEMPORARILY COOLER AIR INFILTRATES THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WITH ABUNDANT RECENT RAINFALL AND STRONG
OVERNIGHT INVERSIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AT
LEAST SOME FOG FORMATION SEEMS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...LAYER RH
VALUES FALL OFF A CLIFF AND CLEARING SEEMS TO BE QUITE THE COMMON
THEME AMONGST THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS THE NEXT SYSTEM
DROPPING TOWARD THE AREA ON FRIDAY. IN FACT...THE SPREAD AMONGST
THE OPERATIONAL GFS/EMCWF/CANADIAN IS SMALL ENOUGH TO BE
NEGLIGIBLE...SO TIMING FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WAS PINNED TO
INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH LIKELY POPS FEATURED
MOST PLACES IN THE EVENING.

TEMPERATURES DO MANAGED TO INCREASED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH
850 MB CONSENSUS VALUES RUNNING UP TOWARD +18 TO +20C. GIVEN THE
LOWER SUN ANGLE...THESE VALUES WILL BE TOUGH TO MIX OUT TO THE
SURFACE WITHOUT A LOT OF MECHANICAL HELP BELOW THAT LEVEL. AS
SUCH...HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY IN THE 80S THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK RATHER THAN MAKING ANY REALISTIC RUN UP TOWARD 90F. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH BROAD
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS WILL BE THE BUSIEST OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
FROPA DURING THAT TIME. EXPECTING SHRA/TSRA TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SHOULD BE ENOUGH MVFR
RESTRICTIONS FOR TEMPO TSRA MENTION. BRIEF IFR ALSO POSSIBLE BUT
DID NOT WRITE UP AT THIS TIME. EXPECT CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE 22Z-04Z PERIOD...WITH A FAIRLY MINOR WIND SHIFT TOWARDS
THE WSW. MVFR/IFR FOG LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET OVERNIGHT GIVEN
RAIN...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SLACKENING GRADIENT. VFR
WILL RETURN WITH SCT CU ONCE FOG LIFTS BY 14Z. CL

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT MAY BRING RESTRICTIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 021842
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
242 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT. DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER RETURNS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESS AND APPROACHING THE WESTERN BORDER
OF THE CWA. IT WILL SWING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EXIT THE EAST
BY 00Z. SECONDARY DEWPOINT BOUNDARY BACK NEAR DTW AND FDY WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT. STILL SOME FAIRLY THICK CLOUD COVER
IN SPOTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT MORE SUN
ACROSS THE SOUTH HAS LED TO BETTER DESTABILIZATION...WITH UP TO
2000 J/KG NOTED ON SPC MESOANALYSIS. STILL DO NOT SEE A WIDESPREAD
SEVERE THREAT...BUT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY PLUS MARGINAL 0-6KM
SHEAR OF 35-40 KNOTS MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST A COUPLE STORMS WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED WATER PROBLEMS OVER
LOW FFG AREAS AS WELL GIVEN THE RIBBON OF UP TO 1.8 INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER ALONG THE FRONT...PLUS UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW
SUPPORTING THE POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING CELLS. HAVE DECREASED POPS
A BIT FROM EARLIER BUT HAVE MAINTAINED LIKELY VALUES WITH FROPA.
KEPT CHANCE POPS BEHIND INITIAL FRONT AS ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA MAY
ACCOMPANY THE DEWPOINT BOUNDARY FURTHER WEST.

CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. THINK LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE REALIZED MORE AS FOG THAN STRATUS
OVERNIGHT WITH GRADIENT SLACKENING...AND HAVE INSERTED VALLEY FOG
CWA-WIDE. WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. EXPECTING AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT...BUT SHRA POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE KEPT IN CHECK BY CAPPING ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL EVEN BEHIND THE
FRONT...AS H500 HEIGHTS REMAIN A BIT HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRIER AND TEMPORARILY COOLER AIR INFILTRATES THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WITH ABUNDANT RECENT RAINFALL AND STRONG
OVERNIGHT INVERSIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AT
LEAST SOME FOG FORMATION SEEMS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...LAYER RH
VALUES FALL OFF A CLIFF AND CLEARING SEEMS TO BE QUITE THE COMMON
THEME AMONGST THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS THE NEXT SYSTEM
DROPPING TOWARD THE AREA ON FRIDAY. IN FACT...THE SPREAD AMONGST
THE OPERATIONAL GFS/EMCWF/CANADIAN IS SMALL ENOUGH TO BE
NEGLIGIBLE...SO TIMING FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WAS PINNED TO
INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH LIKELY POPS FEATURED
MOST PLACES IN THE EVENING.

TEMPERATURES DO MANAGED TO INCREASED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH
850 MB CONSENSUS VALUES RUNNING UP TOWARD +18 TO +20C. GIVEN THE
LOWER SUN ANGLE...THESE VALUES WILL BE TOUGH TO MIX OUT TO THE
SURFACE WITHOUT A LOT OF MECHANICAL HELP BELOW THAT LEVEL. AS
SUCH...HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY IN THE 80S THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK RATHER THAN MAKING ANY REALISTIC RUN UP TOWARD 90F. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH BROAD
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS WILL BE THE BUSIEST OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
FROPA DURING THAT TIME. EXPECTING SHRA/TSRA TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SHOULD BE ENOUGH MVFR
RESTRICTIONS FOR TEMPO TSRA MENTION. BRIEF IFR ALSO POSSIBLE BUT
DID NOT WRITE UP AT THIS TIME. EXPECT CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE 22Z-04Z PERIOD...WITH A FAIRLY MINOR WIND SHIFT TOWARDS
THE WSW. MVFR/IFR FOG LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET OVERNIGHT GIVEN
RAIN...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SLACKENING GRADIENT. VFR
WILL RETURN WITH SCT CU ONCE FOG LIFTS BY 14Z. CL

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT MAY BRING RESTRICTIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 021755
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
155 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT. DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER RETURNS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESS AND APPROACHING THE WESTERN BORDER
OF THE CWA. IT WILL SWING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EXIT THE EAST
BY 00Z. SECONDARY DEWPOINT BOUNDARY BACK NEAR DTW AND FDY WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT. STILL SOME FAIRLY THICK CLOUD COVER
IN SPOTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT MORE SUN
ACROSS THE SOUTH HAS LED TO BETTER DESTABILIZATION...WITH UP TO
2000 J/KG NOTED ON SPC MESOANALYSIS. STILL DO NOT SEE A WIDESPREAD
SEVERE THREAT...BUT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY PLUS MARGINAL 0-6KM
SHEAR OF 35-40 KNOTS MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST A COUPLE STORMS WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED WATER PROBLEMS OVER
LOW FFG AREAS AS WELL GIVEN THE RIBBON OF UP TO 1.8 INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER ALONG THE FRONT...PLUS UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW
SUPPORTING THE POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING CELLS. HAVE DECREASED POPS
A BIT FROM EARLIER BUT HAVE MAINTAINED LIKELY VALUES WITH FROPA.
KEPT CHANCE POPS BEHIND INITIAL FRONT AS ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA MAY
ACCOMPANY THE DEWPOINT BOUNDARY FURTHER WEST.

CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. THINK LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE REALIZED MORE AS FOG THAN STRATUS
OVERNIGHT WITH GRADIENT SLACKENING...AND HAVE INSERTED VALLEY FOG
CWA-WIDE. WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. EXPECTING AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT...BUT SHRA POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE KEPT IN CHECK BY CAPPING ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL EVEN BEHIND THE
FRONT...AS H500 HEIGHTS REMAIN A BIT HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT QUICKLY EXITS THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH. IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE NIGHT...BUT LOWER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL EVENTUALLY SINK SOUTHWARD. AT THIS POINT...NOT
QUITE SURE SHOW LONG THE LESS HUMID AIRMASS CAN REMAIN IN PLACE.
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTING EASTWARD...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS...SEE
WEDNESDAY AS BEING COMFORTABLE...BUT THE HUMIDITY CREEPS BACK IN
ON THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP THE AREA ACTIVITY FREE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST MODEL DATA IS SPEEDING UP THE CROSSING OF THE NEXT REAL
COLD FRONT. WILL SPEED UP THE ENTRANCE OF POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME CROSSING THE REGION...MEANING SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES WILL BE PUSHED INTO SATURDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH BROAD SURFACE HIGH BUILDING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS WILL BE THE BUSIEST OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
FROPA DURING THAT TIME. EXPECTING SHRA/TSRA TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SHOULD BE ENOUGH MVFR
RESTRICTIONS FOR TEMPO TSRA MENTION. BRIEF IFR ALSO POSSIBLE BUT
DID NOT WRITE UP AT THIS TIME. EXPECT CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE 22Z-04Z PERIOD...WITH A FAIRLY MINOR WIND SHIFT TOWARDS
THE WSW. MVFR/IFR FOG LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET OVERNIGHT GIVEN
RAIN...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SLACKENING GRADIENT. VFR
WILL RETURN WITH SCT CU ONCE FOG LIFTS BY 14Z. CL

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT MAY BRING RESTRICTIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 021755
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
155 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT. DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER RETURNS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESS AND APPROACHING THE WESTERN BORDER
OF THE CWA. IT WILL SWING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EXIT THE EAST
BY 00Z. SECONDARY DEWPOINT BOUNDARY BACK NEAR DTW AND FDY WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT. STILL SOME FAIRLY THICK CLOUD COVER
IN SPOTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT MORE SUN
ACROSS THE SOUTH HAS LED TO BETTER DESTABILIZATION...WITH UP TO
2000 J/KG NOTED ON SPC MESOANALYSIS. STILL DO NOT SEE A WIDESPREAD
SEVERE THREAT...BUT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY PLUS MARGINAL 0-6KM
SHEAR OF 35-40 KNOTS MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST A COUPLE STORMS WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED WATER PROBLEMS OVER
LOW FFG AREAS AS WELL GIVEN THE RIBBON OF UP TO 1.8 INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER ALONG THE FRONT...PLUS UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW
SUPPORTING THE POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING CELLS. HAVE DECREASED POPS
A BIT FROM EARLIER BUT HAVE MAINTAINED LIKELY VALUES WITH FROPA.
KEPT CHANCE POPS BEHIND INITIAL FRONT AS ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA MAY
ACCOMPANY THE DEWPOINT BOUNDARY FURTHER WEST.

CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. THINK LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE REALIZED MORE AS FOG THAN STRATUS
OVERNIGHT WITH GRADIENT SLACKENING...AND HAVE INSERTED VALLEY FOG
CWA-WIDE. WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. EXPECTING AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT...BUT SHRA POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE KEPT IN CHECK BY CAPPING ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL EVEN BEHIND THE
FRONT...AS H500 HEIGHTS REMAIN A BIT HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT QUICKLY EXITS THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH. IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE NIGHT...BUT LOWER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL EVENTUALLY SINK SOUTHWARD. AT THIS POINT...NOT
QUITE SURE SHOW LONG THE LESS HUMID AIRMASS CAN REMAIN IN PLACE.
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTING EASTWARD...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS...SEE
WEDNESDAY AS BEING COMFORTABLE...BUT THE HUMIDITY CREEPS BACK IN
ON THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP THE AREA ACTIVITY FREE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST MODEL DATA IS SPEEDING UP THE CROSSING OF THE NEXT REAL
COLD FRONT. WILL SPEED UP THE ENTRANCE OF POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME CROSSING THE REGION...MEANING SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES WILL BE PUSHED INTO SATURDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH BROAD SURFACE HIGH BUILDING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS WILL BE THE BUSIEST OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
FROPA DURING THAT TIME. EXPECTING SHRA/TSRA TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SHOULD BE ENOUGH MVFR
RESTRICTIONS FOR TEMPO TSRA MENTION. BRIEF IFR ALSO POSSIBLE BUT
DID NOT WRITE UP AT THIS TIME. EXPECT CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE 22Z-04Z PERIOD...WITH A FAIRLY MINOR WIND SHIFT TOWARDS
THE WSW. MVFR/IFR FOG LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET OVERNIGHT GIVEN
RAIN...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SLACKENING GRADIENT. VFR
WILL RETURN WITH SCT CU ONCE FOG LIFTS BY 14Z. CL

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT MAY BRING RESTRICTIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 021312
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
912 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
9 AM UPDATE...UPDATED MAINLY FOR RADAR TRENDS. STILL LOOKING AT A
LOW-END SLIGHT RISK. 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS A STOUT CAP BETWEEN H800
AND H700...AND INCOMING CLOUD COVER WILL HINDER DESTABILIZATION AS
WELL. STILL MAY HAVE TO WATCH RAIN AMOUNTS PARTICULARLY IN AREAS
WITH LOW FFG.

PREVIOUS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT
CURRENT DATA...MORE CONCERNED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
THEN SEVERE. ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY DOES NOT STAND OUT WITH SB
CAPES GENERALLY LESS THEN 1000J/KG AND LIFTED INDEXES AROUND -1.
ADDITIONALLY...MID CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE AHEAD OF FRONTAL
PASSAGE. MODELS ARE SHOWING A PRETTY DESCENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT IT WEAKENS AND GETS SHEARED APART
AS IT REACHES THE AREA. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT ISOLATED
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AS A LINE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL
DEVELOP WITH FROPA AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR
50KTS. MY GREATER CONCERN WILL BE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS STRENGTHENS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND PWATS RISE TO ALMOST 2 INCHES. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
WILL STILL BE AROUND 70...WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO A TROPICAL REGIME
IN WHICH THE RAIN DROPS WILL BE CREATED. FRONT DOES GET TRUCKING
ALONG ONCE THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH...WHICH WILL HELP TO LIMIT
THE AMOUNT OF TIME HEAVIER RAIN CAN FALL OVER THE SAME AREAS. WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGH POPS WITH FROPA AND THE MENTION OF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.

TEMPS WILL BE A BIT TRICKY WITH PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...
SO HAVE LOWERED TEMPS JUST A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. EXPECT
ANOTHER VERY HUMID DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT QUICKLY EXITS THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH. IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE NIGHT...BUT LOWER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL EVENTUALLY SINK SOUTHWARD. AT THIS POINT...NOT
QUITE SURE SHOW LONG THE LESS HUMID AIRMASS CAN REMAIN IN PLACE.
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTING EASTWARD...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS...SEE
WEDNESDAY AS BEING COMFORTABLE...BUT THE HUMIDITY CREEPS BACK IN
ON THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP THE AREA ACTIVITY FREE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST MODEL DATA IS SPEEDING UP THE CROSSING OF THE NEXT REAL
COLD FRONT. WILL SPEED UP THE ENTRANCE OF POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME CROSSING THE REGION...MEANING SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES WILL BE PUSHED INTO SATURDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH BROAD SURFACE HIGH BUILDING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITION DETERIORATION CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MRNG AS SHWRS AND
TSTMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS A WEAK CDFNT ENCROACHES ON THE
UPR OH REGION. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH IFR VSBY IN THE
STRONGER CELLS.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS IN FOG AND LCL ST ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LATE WEEK CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 021312
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
912 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
9 AM UPDATE...UPDATED MAINLY FOR RADAR TRENDS. STILL LOOKING AT A
LOW-END SLIGHT RISK. 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS A STOUT CAP BETWEEN H800
AND H700...AND INCOMING CLOUD COVER WILL HINDER DESTABILIZATION AS
WELL. STILL MAY HAVE TO WATCH RAIN AMOUNTS PARTICULARLY IN AREAS
WITH LOW FFG.

PREVIOUS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT
CURRENT DATA...MORE CONCERNED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
THEN SEVERE. ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY DOES NOT STAND OUT WITH SB
CAPES GENERALLY LESS THEN 1000J/KG AND LIFTED INDEXES AROUND -1.
ADDITIONALLY...MID CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE AHEAD OF FRONTAL
PASSAGE. MODELS ARE SHOWING A PRETTY DESCENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT IT WEAKENS AND GETS SHEARED APART
AS IT REACHES THE AREA. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT ISOLATED
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AS A LINE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL
DEVELOP WITH FROPA AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR
50KTS. MY GREATER CONCERN WILL BE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS STRENGTHENS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND PWATS RISE TO ALMOST 2 INCHES. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
WILL STILL BE AROUND 70...WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO A TROPICAL REGIME
IN WHICH THE RAIN DROPS WILL BE CREATED. FRONT DOES GET TRUCKING
ALONG ONCE THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH...WHICH WILL HELP TO LIMIT
THE AMOUNT OF TIME HEAVIER RAIN CAN FALL OVER THE SAME AREAS. WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGH POPS WITH FROPA AND THE MENTION OF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.

TEMPS WILL BE A BIT TRICKY WITH PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...
SO HAVE LOWERED TEMPS JUST A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. EXPECT
ANOTHER VERY HUMID DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT QUICKLY EXITS THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH. IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE NIGHT...BUT LOWER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL EVENTUALLY SINK SOUTHWARD. AT THIS POINT...NOT
QUITE SURE SHOW LONG THE LESS HUMID AIRMASS CAN REMAIN IN PLACE.
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTING EASTWARD...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS...SEE
WEDNESDAY AS BEING COMFORTABLE...BUT THE HUMIDITY CREEPS BACK IN
ON THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP THE AREA ACTIVITY FREE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST MODEL DATA IS SPEEDING UP THE CROSSING OF THE NEXT REAL
COLD FRONT. WILL SPEED UP THE ENTRANCE OF POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME CROSSING THE REGION...MEANING SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES WILL BE PUSHED INTO SATURDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH BROAD SURFACE HIGH BUILDING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITION DETERIORATION CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MRNG AS SHWRS AND
TSTMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS A WEAK CDFNT ENCROACHES ON THE
UPR OH REGION. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH IFR VSBY IN THE
STRONGER CELLS.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS IN FOG AND LCL ST ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LATE WEEK CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 021010
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
610 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
POPS WERE ADJUSTED FOR THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND GENLY FEATURE
QUICKER RAIN ONSET THIS MRNG.

PREVIOUS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT
CURRENT DATA...MORE CONCERNED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
THEN SEVERE. ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY DOES NOT STAND OUT WITH SB
CAPES GENERALLY LESS THEN 1000J/KG AND LIFTED INDEXES AROUND -1.
ADDITIONALLY...MID CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE AHEAD OF FRONTAL
PASSAGE. MODELS ARE SHOWING A PRETTY DESCENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT IT WEAKENS AND GETS SHEARED APART
AS IT REACHES THE AREA. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT ISOLATED
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AS A LINE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL
DEVELOP WITH FROPA AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR
50KTS. MY GREATER CONCERN WILL BE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS STRENGTHENS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND PWATS RISE TO ALMOST 2 INCHES. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
WILL STILL BE AROUND 70...WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO A TROPICAL REGIME
IN WHICH THE RAIN DROPS WILL BE CREATED. FRONT DOES GET TRUCKING
ALONG ONCE THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH...WHICH WILL HELP TO LIMIT
THE AMOUNT OF TIME HEAVIER RAIN CAN FALL OVER THE SAME AREAS. WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGH POPS WITH FROPA AND THE MENTION OF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.

TEMPS WILL BE A BIT TRICKY WITH PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...
SO HAVE LOWERED TEMPS JUST A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. EXPECT
ANOTHER VERY HUMID DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT QUICKLY EXITS THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH. IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE NIGHT...BUT LOWER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL EVENTUALLY SINK SOUTHWARD. AT THIS POINT...NOT
QUITE SURE SHOW LONG THE LESS HUMID AIRMASS CAN REMAIN IN PLACE.
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTING EASTWARD...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS...SEE
WEDNESDAY AS BEING COMFORTABLE...BUT THE HUMIDITY CREEPS BACK IN
ON THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP THE AREA ACTIVITY FREE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST MODEL DATA IS SPEEDING UP THE CROSSING OF THE NEXT REAL
COLD FRONT. WILL SPEED UP THE ENTRANCE OF POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME CROSSING THE REGION...MEANING SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES WILL BE PUSHED INTO SATURDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH BROAD SURFACE HIGH BUILDING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITION DETERIORATION CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MRNG AS SHWRS AND
TSTMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS A WEAK CDFNT ENCROACHES ON THE
UPR OH REGION. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH IFR VSBY IN THE
STRONGER CELLS.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS IN FOG AND LCL ST ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LATE WEEK CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/22





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 021010
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
610 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
POPS WERE ADJUSTED FOR THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND GENLY FEATURE
QUICKER RAIN ONSET THIS MRNG.

PREVIOUS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT
CURRENT DATA...MORE CONCERNED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
THEN SEVERE. ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY DOES NOT STAND OUT WITH SB
CAPES GENERALLY LESS THEN 1000J/KG AND LIFTED INDEXES AROUND -1.
ADDITIONALLY...MID CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE AHEAD OF FRONTAL
PASSAGE. MODELS ARE SHOWING A PRETTY DESCENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT IT WEAKENS AND GETS SHEARED APART
AS IT REACHES THE AREA. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT ISOLATED
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AS A LINE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL
DEVELOP WITH FROPA AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR
50KTS. MY GREATER CONCERN WILL BE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS STRENGTHENS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND PWATS RISE TO ALMOST 2 INCHES. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
WILL STILL BE AROUND 70...WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO A TROPICAL REGIME
IN WHICH THE RAIN DROPS WILL BE CREATED. FRONT DOES GET TRUCKING
ALONG ONCE THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH...WHICH WILL HELP TO LIMIT
THE AMOUNT OF TIME HEAVIER RAIN CAN FALL OVER THE SAME AREAS. WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGH POPS WITH FROPA AND THE MENTION OF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.

TEMPS WILL BE A BIT TRICKY WITH PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...
SO HAVE LOWERED TEMPS JUST A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. EXPECT
ANOTHER VERY HUMID DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT QUICKLY EXITS THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH. IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE NIGHT...BUT LOWER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL EVENTUALLY SINK SOUTHWARD. AT THIS POINT...NOT
QUITE SURE SHOW LONG THE LESS HUMID AIRMASS CAN REMAIN IN PLACE.
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTING EASTWARD...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS...SEE
WEDNESDAY AS BEING COMFORTABLE...BUT THE HUMIDITY CREEPS BACK IN
ON THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP THE AREA ACTIVITY FREE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST MODEL DATA IS SPEEDING UP THE CROSSING OF THE NEXT REAL
COLD FRONT. WILL SPEED UP THE ENTRANCE OF POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME CROSSING THE REGION...MEANING SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES WILL BE PUSHED INTO SATURDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH BROAD SURFACE HIGH BUILDING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITION DETERIORATION CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MRNG AS SHWRS AND
TSTMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS A WEAK CDFNT ENCROACHES ON THE
UPR OH REGION. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH IFR VSBY IN THE
STRONGER CELLS.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS IN FOG AND LCL ST ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LATE WEEK CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/22






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020814
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
414 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT
CURRENT DATA...MORE CONCERNED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
THEN SEVERE. ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY DOES NOT STAND OUT WITH SB
CAPES GENERALLY LESS THEN 1000J/KG AND LIFTED INDEXES AROUND -1.
ADDITIONALLY...MID CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE AHEAD OF FRONTAL
PASSAGE. MODELS ARE SHOWING A PRETTY DESCENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT IT WEAKENS AND GETS SHEARED APART
AS IT REACHES THE AREA. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT ISOLATED
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AS A LINE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL
DEVELOP WITH FROPA AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR
50KTS. MY GREATER CONCERN WILL BE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS STRENGTHENS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND PWATS RISE TO ALMOST 2 INCHES. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
WILL STILL BE AROUND 70...WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO A TROPICAL
REGIME IN WHICH THE RAIN DROPS WILL BE CREATED. FRONT DOES GET
TRUCKING ALONG ONCE THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH...WHICH WILL HELP TO
LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF TIME HEAVIER RAIN CAN FALL OVER THE SAME
AREAS. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH POPS WITH FROPA AND THE MENTION OF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

TEMPS WILL BE A BIT TRICKY WITH PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...
SO HAVE LOWERED TEMPS JUST A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. EXPECT
ANOTHER VERY HUMID DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT QUICKLY EXITS THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH. IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE NIGHT...BUT LOWER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL EVENTUALLY SINK SOUTHWARD. AT THIS POINT...NOT
QUITE SURE SHOW LONG THE LESS HUMID AIRMASS CAN REMAIN IN PLACE.
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTING EASTWARD...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS...SEE
WEDNESDAY AS BEING COMFORTABLE...BUT THE HUMIDITY CREEPS BACK IN
ON THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP THE AREA ACTIVITY FREE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST MODEL DATA IS SPEEDING UP THE CROSSING OF THE NEXT REAL
COLD FRONT. WILL SPEED UP THE ENTRANCE OF POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME CROSSING THE REGION...MEANING SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES WILL BE PUSHED INTO SATURDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH BROAD SURFACE HIGH BUILDING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUFFICIENT SFC WIND AND MID LVL CLDS ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE
SERIOUS RESTRICTIONS EARLY THIS MRNG...ALTHOUGH SCT SHWRS MAY
DEGRADE CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY AT PORTS N OF PIT. SHWRS AND TSTMS
WL BECOME MORE NMRS AFTR DAYBREAK AS A WEAK CDFNT ENCROACHES ON
THE UPR OH REGION. EXPECT IFR VSBY IN THE STRONGER CELLS.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS IN FOG AND ST ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING. MORE
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LATE WEEK CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020814
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
414 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT
CURRENT DATA...MORE CONCERNED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
THEN SEVERE. ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY DOES NOT STAND OUT WITH SB
CAPES GENERALLY LESS THEN 1000J/KG AND LIFTED INDEXES AROUND -1.
ADDITIONALLY...MID CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE AHEAD OF FRONTAL
PASSAGE. MODELS ARE SHOWING A PRETTY DESCENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT IT WEAKENS AND GETS SHEARED APART
AS IT REACHES THE AREA. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT ISOLATED
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AS A LINE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL
DEVELOP WITH FROPA AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR
50KTS. MY GREATER CONCERN WILL BE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS STRENGTHENS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND PWATS RISE TO ALMOST 2 INCHES. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
WILL STILL BE AROUND 70...WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO A TROPICAL
REGIME IN WHICH THE RAIN DROPS WILL BE CREATED. FRONT DOES GET
TRUCKING ALONG ONCE THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH...WHICH WILL HELP TO
LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF TIME HEAVIER RAIN CAN FALL OVER THE SAME
AREAS. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH POPS WITH FROPA AND THE MENTION OF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

TEMPS WILL BE A BIT TRICKY WITH PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...
SO HAVE LOWERED TEMPS JUST A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. EXPECT
ANOTHER VERY HUMID DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT QUICKLY EXITS THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH. IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE NIGHT...BUT LOWER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL EVENTUALLY SINK SOUTHWARD. AT THIS POINT...NOT
QUITE SURE SHOW LONG THE LESS HUMID AIRMASS CAN REMAIN IN PLACE.
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTING EASTWARD...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS...SEE
WEDNESDAY AS BEING COMFORTABLE...BUT THE HUMIDITY CREEPS BACK IN
ON THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP THE AREA ACTIVITY FREE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST MODEL DATA IS SPEEDING UP THE CROSSING OF THE NEXT REAL
COLD FRONT. WILL SPEED UP THE ENTRANCE OF POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME CROSSING THE REGION...MEANING SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES WILL BE PUSHED INTO SATURDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH BROAD SURFACE HIGH BUILDING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUFFICIENT SFC WIND AND MID LVL CLDS ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE
SERIOUS RESTRICTIONS EARLY THIS MRNG...ALTHOUGH SCT SHWRS MAY
DEGRADE CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY AT PORTS N OF PIT. SHWRS AND TSTMS
WL BECOME MORE NMRS AFTR DAYBREAK AS A WEAK CDFNT ENCROACHES ON
THE UPR OH REGION. EXPECT IFR VSBY IN THE STRONGER CELLS.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS IN FOG AND ST ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING. MORE
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LATE WEEK CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020510 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
110 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MINOR CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOWERED POPS AND ADJUSTED CLOUD
COVER AND TEMPS.

A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT
CURRENT DATA...MORE CONCERNED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
THEN SEVERE. ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY DOES NOT STAND OUT WITH SB
CAPES GENERALLY LESS THEN 1000J/KG AND LIFTED INDEXES AROUND -1.
ADDITIONALLY...MID CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE AHEAD OF FRONTAL
PASSAGE. MODELS ARE SHOWING A PRETTY DESCENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT IT WEAKENS AND GETS SHEARED APART
AS IT REACHES THE AREA. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT ISOLATED
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AS A LINE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL
DEVELOP WITH FROPA AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR
50KTS. MY GREATER CONCERN WILL BE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS STRENGTHENS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND PWATS RISE TO ALMOST 2 INCHES. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
WILL STILL BE CLOSE TO 70 WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO A TROPICAL REGIME
IN WHICH THE RAIN DROPS WILL BE CREATED. FRONT DOES GET TRUCKING
ALONG ONCE THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH...WHICH WILL HELP TO LIMIT
THE AMOUNT OF TIME HEAVIER RAIN CAN FALL OVER THE SAME AREAS. WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGH POPS WITH FROPA AND THE MENTION OF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.

TEMPS WILL BE A BIT TRICKY WITH PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...
SO WILL LOWER TEMPS JUST A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. EXPECT
ANOTHER VERY HUMID DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT QUICKLY EXITS THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH. IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE NIGHT...BUT LOWER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL EVENTUALLY SINK SOUTHWARD. AT THIS POINT...NOT
QUITE SURE SHOW LONG THE LESS HUMID AIRMASS CAN REMAIN IN PLACE.
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTING EASTWARD...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS...SEE
WEDNESDAY AS BEING COMFORTABLE...BUT THE HUMIDITY CREEPS BACK IN
ON THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP THE AREA ACTIVITY FREE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST MODEL DATA IS SPEEDING UP THE CROSSING OF THE NEXT REAL
COLD FRONT. WILL SPEED UP THE ENTRANCE OF POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME CROSSING THE REGION...MEANING SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES WILL BE PUSHED INTO SATURDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH BROAD SURFACE HIGH BUILDING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUFFICIENT SFC WIND AND MID LVL CLDS ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE
SERIOUS RESTRICTIONS EARLY THIS MRNG...ALTHOUGH SCT SHWRS MAY
DEGRADE CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY AT PORTS N OF PIT. SHWRS AND TSTMS
WL BECOME MORE NMRS AFTR DAYBREAK AS A WEAK CDFNT ENCROACHES ON
THE UPR OH REGION. EXPECT IFR VSBY IN THE STRONGER CELLS.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS IN FOG AND ST ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING. MORE
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LATE WEEK CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020510 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
110 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MINOR CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOWERED POPS AND ADJUSTED CLOUD
COVER AND TEMPS.

A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT
CURRENT DATA...MORE CONCERNED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
THEN SEVERE. ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY DOES NOT STAND OUT WITH SB
CAPES GENERALLY LESS THEN 1000J/KG AND LIFTED INDEXES AROUND -1.
ADDITIONALLY...MID CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE AHEAD OF FRONTAL
PASSAGE. MODELS ARE SHOWING A PRETTY DESCENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT IT WEAKENS AND GETS SHEARED APART
AS IT REACHES THE AREA. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT ISOLATED
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AS A LINE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL
DEVELOP WITH FROPA AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR
50KTS. MY GREATER CONCERN WILL BE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS STRENGTHENS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND PWATS RISE TO ALMOST 2 INCHES. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
WILL STILL BE CLOSE TO 70 WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO A TROPICAL REGIME
IN WHICH THE RAIN DROPS WILL BE CREATED. FRONT DOES GET TRUCKING
ALONG ONCE THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH...WHICH WILL HELP TO LIMIT
THE AMOUNT OF TIME HEAVIER RAIN CAN FALL OVER THE SAME AREAS. WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGH POPS WITH FROPA AND THE MENTION OF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.

TEMPS WILL BE A BIT TRICKY WITH PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...
SO WILL LOWER TEMPS JUST A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. EXPECT
ANOTHER VERY HUMID DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT QUICKLY EXITS THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH. IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE NIGHT...BUT LOWER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL EVENTUALLY SINK SOUTHWARD. AT THIS POINT...NOT
QUITE SURE SHOW LONG THE LESS HUMID AIRMASS CAN REMAIN IN PLACE.
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTING EASTWARD...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS...SEE
WEDNESDAY AS BEING COMFORTABLE...BUT THE HUMIDITY CREEPS BACK IN
ON THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP THE AREA ACTIVITY FREE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST MODEL DATA IS SPEEDING UP THE CROSSING OF THE NEXT REAL
COLD FRONT. WILL SPEED UP THE ENTRANCE OF POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME CROSSING THE REGION...MEANING SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES WILL BE PUSHED INTO SATURDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH BROAD SURFACE HIGH BUILDING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUFFICIENT SFC WIND AND MID LVL CLDS ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE
SERIOUS RESTRICTIONS EARLY THIS MRNG...ALTHOUGH SCT SHWRS MAY
DEGRADE CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY AT PORTS N OF PIT. SHWRS AND TSTMS
WL BECOME MORE NMRS AFTR DAYBREAK AS A WEAK CDFNT ENCROACHES ON
THE UPR OH REGION. EXPECT IFR VSBY IN THE STRONGER CELLS.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS IN FOG AND ST ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING. MORE
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LATE WEEK CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020030
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
830 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE GOING INTO
THE EVENING...WITH HUMID AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH 830PM UPDATE...CUT POPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH COVERAGE HAVING SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED IN THE LAST
HOUR OR TWO. UPSTREAM PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS ALSO ON THE
WANE...AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH MORE DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT. LINE OF CONVECTION WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
NOT HAVE AN IMPACT. ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO OTHER PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST.  PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE REAL FOCUS BY TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE TURNING TO THE DAYTIME ON
TUESDAY...WHEN THE MID-LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. MODEL SOLUTIONS SEEM
TO BE KEYING IN ON A LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ARRIVAL INTO
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH A MID-AFTERNOON CROSSING OF
THE PITTSBURGH AREA...AND A LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING EXIT OF
THE CWA FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT
WHILE LIKELY CONTINUING TO BE RATHER DEEP...SHOULD ALSO BE RATHER
UNIMPRESSIVE OWING IN LARGE PART TO A LACK OF INSOLATION AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THROUGH THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE DAY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION. ADDITIONALLY...OWING TO THE FACT THAT
THE MID-LEVEL WAVE LARGELY SHEARS OFF TO OUR NORTH...0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES REALLY ONLY RUN UP TOWARD 35 KTS OF WEAKLY VEERED
FLOW AS THE BOUNDARY IMPINGES UPON THE AREA. AGAIN WITH THIS
VARIABLE...THOSE VALUES DO NOT EXACTLY MAKE THIS FORECASTER
PARTICULARLY JUMPY. FURTHERMORE...WITH SHEAR VALUES THAT HIGH AND
A FAIRLY QUICK MOVING WAVE PASSAGE...WHILE THE CELLS THAT DO MOVE
THROUGH ARE LIKELY TO BE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS...PROLONGED HEAVY
RAINFALL IN ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION AS WELL AS TRAINING OF ECHOES
SEEMS UNLIKELY. THIS SHOULD MINIMIZE THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AS
WELL. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT SPC HAS PLACED THE AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR TOMORROW...HOWEVER OWING TO LESS THAN STELLAR INSTABILITY
VALUES...MODERATE SHEAR...A LACK OF INSOLATION...FORCING THAT
FOCUSES HEIGHT FALLS LARGELY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG WITH
THE HIGHEST SHEAR VALUES...IT SEEMS LIKE THIS SLIGHT RISK IS A
LESS CONFIDENT SLIGHT RISK THAN NORMAL. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT EXITS EAST TUES NIGHT QUICKLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
GOES ZONAL. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS AT THE SFC WEDS WITH
SKIES GENERALLY CLEARING THROUGH THURS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE AVERAGE BOTH DAYS AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING FOR
WARM...ALBEIT WEAK...SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
THREAT OF RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WORK WEEK.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH 02Z WITH END OF DAYTIME
HEATING. EXPECT MVFR FOG AT MOST LOCATIONS IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH KFKL AND KDUJ HAVING IFR STRATUS BEFORE DAYBREAK. FOR TUESDAY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS WEST TO EAST LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH MVFR THUNDER AT TIMES IN TAFS AS
THIS WILL NEED TO BE REFINED IN LATER ISSUANCE. A WEAK WESTERLY WIND
SHIFT WILL WORK INTO THE REGION LATE DAY.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING IN FOG/STRATUS.
RESTRICTIONS ARE THEN POSSIBLE FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 012344
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
744 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE GOING INTO
THE EVENING...WITH HUMID AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH 530PM UPDATE...UPDATED HOURLY POPS DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND MOST RECENT HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
AREAS THAT COULD SEE RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT CONSIDERING RESPECTABLE
VALUES OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY INDICATED BY MODELS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE 12Z KPBZ RAOB INDICATED A NEARLY SATURATED ATMOSPHERE BELOW
700 MB...AND WHILE SOME OF THE MOISTURE HAS LIKELY MIXED OUT A BIT
AS STRATUS HAS BROKEN UP ACROSS THE AREA...THE SOURCE REGION AIR
MASS FOR THE LARGE SCALE FLOW CONTINUES TO HAVE DEWPOINTS LARGELY
IN THE LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...RATHER DEEP INSTABILITY
WAS NOTED ON THE 12Z SOUNDING...AND IT LIKELY STILL EXISTS OVER
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS RATHER
NEBULOUS TO FIND AT THE MOMENT...A COUPLE OF WEAK EMBEDDED
VORTEXES SEEM TO BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO HARNESS THIS INSTABILITY
AND TRANSLATE IT INTO RATHER EFFICIENT HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN PWAT VALUES OF AROUND OR ABOVE 2
INCHES. THE FIRST OF THESE HAS ALREADY BASICALLY EXITED THE AREA
TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SECOND IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO EASTERN OHIO
AND SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REST OF THE AREA SOUTH
OF A NEW PHILADELPHIA TO INDIANA LINE THIS EVENING. BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THESE CELLS. HOWEVER...THEY ARE
RATHER TRANSIENT...SO FLOODING CONCERNS ARE MINIMIZED AS A RESULT.

DEEP INSTABILITY AND A VERY HUMID AIR MASS REMAIN BEHIND THE
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...SO WHILE SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT...THE CHANCES DO LOOK TO DWINDLE OWING TO A LACK OF
FORCING OTHER THAN ANOTHER TRANSIENT WAVE THAT MAY BRING SOME
SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE REAL FOCUS BY TONIGHT LOOKS
TO BE TURNING TO THE DAYTIME ON TUESDAY...WHEN THE MID-LEVEL
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT.

MODEL SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE KEYING IN ON A LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON ARRIVAL INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH A
MID-AFTERNOON CROSSING OF THE PITTSBURGH AREA...AND A LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING EXIT OF THE CWA FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT WHILE LIKELY CONTINUING TO BE RATHER
DEEP...SHOULD ALSO BE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE OWING IN LARGE PART TO A
LACK OF INSOLATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE EARLY PORTIONS
OF THE DAY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION.
ADDITIONALLY...OWING TO THE FACT THAT THE MID-LEVEL WAVE LARGELY
SHEARS OFF TO OUR NORTH...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES REALLY ONLY RUN
UP TOWARD 35 KTS OF WEAKLY VEERED FLOW AS THE BOUNDARY IMPINGES
UPON THE AREA. AGAIN WITH THIS VARIABLE...THOSE VALUES DO NOT
EXACTLY MAKE THIS FORECASTER PARTICULARLY JUMPY.
FURTHERMORE...WITH SHEAR VALUES THAT HIGH AND A FAIRLY QUICK
MOVING WAVE PASSAGE...WHILE THE CELLS THAT DO MOVE THROUGH ARE
LIKELY TO BE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS...PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL IN
ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION AS WELL AS TRAINING OF ECHOES SEEMS
UNLIKELY. THIS SHOULD MINIMIZE THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AS WELL.
IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT SPC HAS PLACED THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR TOMORROW...HOWEVER OWING TO LESS THAN STELLAR INSTABILITY
VALUES...MODERATE SHEAR...A LACK OF INSOLATION...FORCING THAT
FOCUSES HEIGHT FALLS LARGELY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG WITH
THE HIGHEST SHEAR VALUES...IT SEEMS LIKE THIS SLIGHT RISK IS A
LESS CONFIDENT SLIGHT RISK THAN NORMAL.  FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT EXITS EAST TUES NIGHT QUICKLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
GOES ZONAL. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS AT THE SFC WEDS WITH
SKIES GENERALLY CLEARING THROUGH THURS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE AVERAGE BOTH DAYS AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING FOR
WARM...ALBEIT WEAK...SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
THREAT OF RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WORK WEEK.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH 02Z WITH END OF DAYTIME
HEATING. EXPECT MVFR FOG AT MOST LOCATIONS IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH KFKL AND KDUJ HAVING IFR STRATUS BEFORE DAYBREAK. FOR TUESDAY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS WEST TO EAST LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH MVFR THUNDER AT TIMES IN TAFS AS
THIS WILL NEED TO BE REFINED IN LATER ISSUANCE. A WEAK WESTERLY WIND
SHIFT WILL WORK INTO THE REGION LATE DAY.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING IN FOG/STRATUS.
RESTRICTIONS ARE THEN POSSIBLE FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 012344
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
744 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE GOING INTO
THE EVENING...WITH HUMID AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH 530PM UPDATE...UPDATED HOURLY POPS DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND MOST RECENT HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
AREAS THAT COULD SEE RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT CONSIDERING RESPECTABLE
VALUES OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY INDICATED BY MODELS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE 12Z KPBZ RAOB INDICATED A NEARLY SATURATED ATMOSPHERE BELOW
700 MB...AND WHILE SOME OF THE MOISTURE HAS LIKELY MIXED OUT A BIT
AS STRATUS HAS BROKEN UP ACROSS THE AREA...THE SOURCE REGION AIR
MASS FOR THE LARGE SCALE FLOW CONTINUES TO HAVE DEWPOINTS LARGELY
IN THE LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...RATHER DEEP INSTABILITY
WAS NOTED ON THE 12Z SOUNDING...AND IT LIKELY STILL EXISTS OVER
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS RATHER
NEBULOUS TO FIND AT THE MOMENT...A COUPLE OF WEAK EMBEDDED
VORTEXES SEEM TO BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO HARNESS THIS INSTABILITY
AND TRANSLATE IT INTO RATHER EFFICIENT HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN PWAT VALUES OF AROUND OR ABOVE 2
INCHES. THE FIRST OF THESE HAS ALREADY BASICALLY EXITED THE AREA
TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SECOND IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO EASTERN OHIO
AND SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REST OF THE AREA SOUTH
OF A NEW PHILADELPHIA TO INDIANA LINE THIS EVENING. BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THESE CELLS. HOWEVER...THEY ARE
RATHER TRANSIENT...SO FLOODING CONCERNS ARE MINIMIZED AS A RESULT.

DEEP INSTABILITY AND A VERY HUMID AIR MASS REMAIN BEHIND THE
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...SO WHILE SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT...THE CHANCES DO LOOK TO DWINDLE OWING TO A LACK OF
FORCING OTHER THAN ANOTHER TRANSIENT WAVE THAT MAY BRING SOME
SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE REAL FOCUS BY TONIGHT LOOKS
TO BE TURNING TO THE DAYTIME ON TUESDAY...WHEN THE MID-LEVEL
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT.

MODEL SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE KEYING IN ON A LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON ARRIVAL INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH A
MID-AFTERNOON CROSSING OF THE PITTSBURGH AREA...AND A LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING EXIT OF THE CWA FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT WHILE LIKELY CONTINUING TO BE RATHER
DEEP...SHOULD ALSO BE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE OWING IN LARGE PART TO A
LACK OF INSOLATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE EARLY PORTIONS
OF THE DAY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION.
ADDITIONALLY...OWING TO THE FACT THAT THE MID-LEVEL WAVE LARGELY
SHEARS OFF TO OUR NORTH...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES REALLY ONLY RUN
UP TOWARD 35 KTS OF WEAKLY VEERED FLOW AS THE BOUNDARY IMPINGES
UPON THE AREA. AGAIN WITH THIS VARIABLE...THOSE VALUES DO NOT
EXACTLY MAKE THIS FORECASTER PARTICULARLY JUMPY.
FURTHERMORE...WITH SHEAR VALUES THAT HIGH AND A FAIRLY QUICK
MOVING WAVE PASSAGE...WHILE THE CELLS THAT DO MOVE THROUGH ARE
LIKELY TO BE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS...PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL IN
ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION AS WELL AS TRAINING OF ECHOES SEEMS
UNLIKELY. THIS SHOULD MINIMIZE THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AS WELL.
IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT SPC HAS PLACED THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR TOMORROW...HOWEVER OWING TO LESS THAN STELLAR INSTABILITY
VALUES...MODERATE SHEAR...A LACK OF INSOLATION...FORCING THAT
FOCUSES HEIGHT FALLS LARGELY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG WITH
THE HIGHEST SHEAR VALUES...IT SEEMS LIKE THIS SLIGHT RISK IS A
LESS CONFIDENT SLIGHT RISK THAN NORMAL.  FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT EXITS EAST TUES NIGHT QUICKLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
GOES ZONAL. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS AT THE SFC WEDS WITH
SKIES GENERALLY CLEARING THROUGH THURS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE AVERAGE BOTH DAYS AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING FOR
WARM...ALBEIT WEAK...SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
THREAT OF RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WORK WEEK.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH 02Z WITH END OF DAYTIME
HEATING. EXPECT MVFR FOG AT MOST LOCATIONS IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH KFKL AND KDUJ HAVING IFR STRATUS BEFORE DAYBREAK. FOR TUESDAY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS WEST TO EAST LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH MVFR THUNDER AT TIMES IN TAFS AS
THIS WILL NEED TO BE REFINED IN LATER ISSUANCE. A WEAK WESTERLY WIND
SHIFT WILL WORK INTO THE REGION LATE DAY.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING IN FOG/STRATUS.
RESTRICTIONS ARE THEN POSSIBLE FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 012144
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
544 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE GOING INTO
THE EVENING...WITH HUMID AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH 530PM UPDATE...UPDATED HOURLY POPS DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND MOST RECENT HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
AREAS THAT COULD SEE RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT CONSIDERING RESPECTABLE
VALUES OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY INDICATED BY MODELS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE 12Z KPBZ RAOB INDICATED A NEARLY SATURATED ATMOSPHERE BELOW
700 MB...AND WHILE SOME OF THE MOISTURE HAS LIKELY MIXED OUT A BIT
AS STRATUS HAS BROKEN UP ACROSS THE AREA...THE SOURCE REGION AIR
MASS FOR THE LARGE SCALE FLOW CONTINUES TO HAVE DEWPOINTS LARGELY
IN THE LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...RATHER DEEP INSTABILITY
WAS NOTED ON THE 12Z SOUNDING...AND IT LIKELY STILL EXISTS OVER
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS RATHER
NEBULOUS TO FIND AT THE MOMENT...A COUPLE OF WEAK EMBEDDED
VORTEXES SEEM TO BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO HARNESS THIS INSTABILITY
AND TRANSLATE IT INTO RATHER EFFICIENT HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN PWAT VALUES OF AROUND OR ABOVE 2
INCHES. THE FIRST OF THESE HAS ALREADY BASICALLY EXITED THE AREA
TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SECOND IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO EASTERN OHIO
AND SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REST OF THE AREA SOUTH
OF A NEW PHILADELPHIA TO INDIANA LINE THIS EVENING. BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THESE CELLS. HOWEVER...THEY ARE
RATHER TRANSIENT...SO FLOODING CONCERNS ARE MINIMIZED AS A RESULT.

DEEP INSTABILITY AND A VERY HUMID AIR MASS REMAIN BEHIND THE
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...SO WHILE SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT...THE CHANCES DO LOOK TO DWINDLE OWING TO A LACK OF
FORCING OTHER THAN ANOTHER TRANSIENT WAVE THAT MAY BRING SOME
SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE REAL FOCUS BY TONIGHT LOOKS
TO BE TURNING TO THE DAYTIME ON TUESDAY...WHEN THE MID-LEVEL
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT.

MODEL SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE KEYING IN ON A LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON ARRIVAL INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH A
MID-AFTERNOON CROSSING OF THE PITTSBURGH AREA...AND A LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING EXIT OF THE CWA FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT WHILE LIKELY CONTINUING TO BE RATHER
DEEP...SHOULD ALSO BE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE OWING IN LARGE PART TO A
LACK OF INSOLATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE EARLY PORTIONS
OF THE DAY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION.
ADDITIONALLY...OWING TO THE FACT THAT THE MID-LEVEL WAVE LARGELY
SHEARS OFF TO OUR NORTH...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES REALLY ONLY RUN
UP TOWARD 35 KTS OF WEAKLY VEERED FLOW AS THE BOUNDARY IMPINGES
UPON THE AREA. AGAIN WITH THIS VARIABLE...THOSE VALUES DO NOT
EXACTLY MAKE THIS FORECASTER PARTICULARLY JUMPY.
FURTHERMORE...WITH SHEAR VALUES THAT HIGH AND A FAIRLY QUICK
MOVING WAVE PASSAGE...WHILE THE CELLS THAT DO MOVE THROUGH ARE
LIKELY TO BE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS...PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL IN
ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION AS WELL AS TRAINING OF ECHOES SEEMS
UNLIKELY. THIS SHOULD MINIMIZE THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AS WELL.
IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT SPC HAS PLACED THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR TOMORROW...HOWEVER OWING TO LESS THAN STELLAR INSTABILITY
VALUES...MODERATE SHEAR...A LACK OF INSOLATION...FORCING THAT
FOCUSES HEIGHT FALLS LARGELY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG WITH
THE HIGHEST SHEAR VALUES...IT SEEMS LIKE THIS SLIGHT RISK IS A
LESS CONFIDENT SLIGHT RISK THAN NORMAL.  FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT EXITS EAST TUES NIGHT QUICKLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
GOES ZONAL. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS AT THE SFC WEDS WITH
SKIES GENERALLY CLEARING THROUGH THURS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE AVERAGE BOTH DAYS AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING FOR
WARM...ALBEIT WEAK...SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
THREAT OF RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WORK WEEK.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE LOCALLY MARRED BY CONVECTION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THOUGH TIMING IS DUBIOUS AT BEST AT THE
MOMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL. MVFR VIS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN
OVERNIGHT AS CONVECTION DWINDLES AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AGAIN RETURNS. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ON THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS/STORMS AT ALL SITES NEAR/AFTER THE END
OF THE CURRENT FORECAST VALID PERIOD. FRIES

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING IN FOG/STRATUS.
RESTRICTIONS ARE THEN POSSIBLE FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 012144
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
544 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE GOING INTO
THE EVENING...WITH HUMID AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH 530PM UPDATE...UPDATED HOURLY POPS DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND MOST RECENT HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
AREAS THAT COULD SEE RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT CONSIDERING RESPECTABLE
VALUES OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY INDICATED BY MODELS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE 12Z KPBZ RAOB INDICATED A NEARLY SATURATED ATMOSPHERE BELOW
700 MB...AND WHILE SOME OF THE MOISTURE HAS LIKELY MIXED OUT A BIT
AS STRATUS HAS BROKEN UP ACROSS THE AREA...THE SOURCE REGION AIR
MASS FOR THE LARGE SCALE FLOW CONTINUES TO HAVE DEWPOINTS LARGELY
IN THE LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...RATHER DEEP INSTABILITY
WAS NOTED ON THE 12Z SOUNDING...AND IT LIKELY STILL EXISTS OVER
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS RATHER
NEBULOUS TO FIND AT THE MOMENT...A COUPLE OF WEAK EMBEDDED
VORTEXES SEEM TO BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO HARNESS THIS INSTABILITY
AND TRANSLATE IT INTO RATHER EFFICIENT HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN PWAT VALUES OF AROUND OR ABOVE 2
INCHES. THE FIRST OF THESE HAS ALREADY BASICALLY EXITED THE AREA
TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SECOND IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO EASTERN OHIO
AND SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REST OF THE AREA SOUTH
OF A NEW PHILADELPHIA TO INDIANA LINE THIS EVENING. BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THESE CELLS. HOWEVER...THEY ARE
RATHER TRANSIENT...SO FLOODING CONCERNS ARE MINIMIZED AS A RESULT.

DEEP INSTABILITY AND A VERY HUMID AIR MASS REMAIN BEHIND THE
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...SO WHILE SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT...THE CHANCES DO LOOK TO DWINDLE OWING TO A LACK OF
FORCING OTHER THAN ANOTHER TRANSIENT WAVE THAT MAY BRING SOME
SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE REAL FOCUS BY TONIGHT LOOKS
TO BE TURNING TO THE DAYTIME ON TUESDAY...WHEN THE MID-LEVEL
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT.

MODEL SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE KEYING IN ON A LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON ARRIVAL INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH A
MID-AFTERNOON CROSSING OF THE PITTSBURGH AREA...AND A LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING EXIT OF THE CWA FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT WHILE LIKELY CONTINUING TO BE RATHER
DEEP...SHOULD ALSO BE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE OWING IN LARGE PART TO A
LACK OF INSOLATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE EARLY PORTIONS
OF THE DAY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION.
ADDITIONALLY...OWING TO THE FACT THAT THE MID-LEVEL WAVE LARGELY
SHEARS OFF TO OUR NORTH...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES REALLY ONLY RUN
UP TOWARD 35 KTS OF WEAKLY VEERED FLOW AS THE BOUNDARY IMPINGES
UPON THE AREA. AGAIN WITH THIS VARIABLE...THOSE VALUES DO NOT
EXACTLY MAKE THIS FORECASTER PARTICULARLY JUMPY.
FURTHERMORE...WITH SHEAR VALUES THAT HIGH AND A FAIRLY QUICK
MOVING WAVE PASSAGE...WHILE THE CELLS THAT DO MOVE THROUGH ARE
LIKELY TO BE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS...PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL IN
ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION AS WELL AS TRAINING OF ECHOES SEEMS
UNLIKELY. THIS SHOULD MINIMIZE THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AS WELL.
IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT SPC HAS PLACED THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR TOMORROW...HOWEVER OWING TO LESS THAN STELLAR INSTABILITY
VALUES...MODERATE SHEAR...A LACK OF INSOLATION...FORCING THAT
FOCUSES HEIGHT FALLS LARGELY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG WITH
THE HIGHEST SHEAR VALUES...IT SEEMS LIKE THIS SLIGHT RISK IS A
LESS CONFIDENT SLIGHT RISK THAN NORMAL.  FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT EXITS EAST TUES NIGHT QUICKLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
GOES ZONAL. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS AT THE SFC WEDS WITH
SKIES GENERALLY CLEARING THROUGH THURS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE AVERAGE BOTH DAYS AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING FOR
WARM...ALBEIT WEAK...SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
THREAT OF RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WORK WEEK.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE LOCALLY MARRED BY CONVECTION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THOUGH TIMING IS DUBIOUS AT BEST AT THE
MOMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL. MVFR VIS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN
OVERNIGHT AS CONVECTION DWINDLES AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AGAIN RETURNS. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ON THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS/STORMS AT ALL SITES NEAR/AFTER THE END
OF THE CURRENT FORECAST VALID PERIOD. FRIES

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING IN FOG/STRATUS.
RESTRICTIONS ARE THEN POSSIBLE FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011913
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
313 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE GOING INTO
THE EVENING...WITH HUMID AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 12Z KPBZ RAOB INDICATED A NEARLY SATURATED ATMOSPHERE BELOW
700 MB...AND WHILE SOME OF THE MOISTURE HAS LIKELY MIXED OUT A BIT
AS STRATUS HAS BROKEN UP ACROSS THE AREA...THE SOURCE REGION AIR
MASS FOR THE LARGE SCALE FLOW CONTINUES TO HAVE DEWPOINTS LARGELY
IN THE LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...RATHER DEEP INSTABILITY
WAS NOTED ON THE 12Z SOUNDING...AND IT LIKELY STILL EXISTS OVER
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS RATHER
NEBULOUS TO FIND AT THE MOMENT...A COUPLE OF WEAK EMBEDDED
VORTEXES SEEM TO BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO HARNESS THIS INSTABILITY
AND TRANSLATE IT INTO RATHER EFFICIENT HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN PWAT VALUES OF AROUND OR ABOVE 2
INCHES. THE FIRST OF THESE HAS ALREADY BASICALLY EXITED THE AREA
TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SECOND IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO EASTERN OHIO
AND SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REST OF THE AREA SOUTH
OF A NEW PHILADELPHIA TO INDIANA LINE THIS EVENING. BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THESE CELLS. HOWEVER...THEY ARE
RATHER TRANSIENT...SO FLOODING CONCERNS ARE MINIMIZED AS A RESULT.

DEEP INSTABILITY AND A VERY HUMID AIR MASS REMAIN BEHIND THE
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...SO WHILE SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT...THE CHANCES DO LOOK TO DWINDLE OWING TO A LACK OF
FORCING OTHER THAN ANOTHER TRANSIENT WAVE THAT MAY BRING SOME
SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE REAL FOCUS BY TONIGHT LOOKS
TO BE TURNING TO THE DAYTIME ON TUESDAY...WHEN THE MID-LEVEL
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT.

MODEL SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE KEYING IN ON A LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON ARRIVAL INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH A
MID-AFTERNOON CROSSING OF THE PITTSBURGH AREA...AND A LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING EXIT OF THE CWA FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT WHILE LIKELY CONTINUING TO BE RATHER
DEEP...SHOULD ALSO BE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE OWING IN LARGE PART TO A
LACK OF INSOLATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE EARLY PORTIONS
OF THE DAY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION.
ADDITIONALLY...OWING TO THE FACT THAT THE MID-LEVEL WAVE LARGELY
SHEARS OFF TO OUR NORTH...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES REALLY ONLY RUN
UP TOWARD 35 KTS OF WEAKLY VEERED FLOW AS THE BOUNDARY IMPINGES
UPON THE AREA. AGAIN WITH THIS VARIABLE...THOSE VALUES DO NOT
EXACTLY MAKE THIS FORECASTER PARTICULARLY JUMPY.
FURTHERMORE...WITH SHEAR VALUES THAT HIGH AND A FAIRLY QUICK
MOVING WAVE PASSAGE...WHILE THE CELLS THAT DO MOVE THROUGH ARE
LIKELY TO BE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS...PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL IN
ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION AS WELL AS TRAINING OF ECHOES SEEMS
UNLIKELY. THIS SHOULD MINIMIZE THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AS WELL.
IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT SPC HAS PLACED THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR TOMORROW...HOWEVER OWING TO LESS THAN STELLAR INSTABILITY
VALUES...MODERATE SHEAR...A LACK OF INSOLATION...FORCING THAT
FOCUSES HEIGHT FALLS LARGELY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG WITH
THE HIGHEST SHEAR VALUES...IT SEEMS LIKE THIS SLIGHT RISK IS A
LESS CONFIDENT SLIGHT RISK THAN NORMAL.  FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT EXITS EAST TUES NIGHT QUICKLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
GOES ZONAL. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS AT THE SFC WEDS WITH
SKIES GENERALLY CLEARING THROUGH THURS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE AVERAGE BOTH DAYS AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING FOR
WARM...ALBEIT WEAK...SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
THREAT OF RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WORK WEEK.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE LOCALLY MARRED BY CONVECTION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THOUGH TIMING IS DUBIOUS AT BEST AT THE
MOMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL. MVFR VIS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN
OVERNIGHT AS CONVECTION DWINDLES AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AGAIN RETURNS. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ON THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING A BETTER RISK OF SHOWERS/STORMS AT ALL SITES
NEAR/AFTER THE END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST VALID PERIOD. FRIES

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LIKELY AT ALL SITES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011913
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
313 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE GOING INTO
THE EVENING...WITH HUMID AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 12Z KPBZ RAOB INDICATED A NEARLY SATURATED ATMOSPHERE BELOW
700 MB...AND WHILE SOME OF THE MOISTURE HAS LIKELY MIXED OUT A BIT
AS STRATUS HAS BROKEN UP ACROSS THE AREA...THE SOURCE REGION AIR
MASS FOR THE LARGE SCALE FLOW CONTINUES TO HAVE DEWPOINTS LARGELY
IN THE LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...RATHER DEEP INSTABILITY
WAS NOTED ON THE 12Z SOUNDING...AND IT LIKELY STILL EXISTS OVER
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS RATHER
NEBULOUS TO FIND AT THE MOMENT...A COUPLE OF WEAK EMBEDDED
VORTEXES SEEM TO BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO HARNESS THIS INSTABILITY
AND TRANSLATE IT INTO RATHER EFFICIENT HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN PWAT VALUES OF AROUND OR ABOVE 2
INCHES. THE FIRST OF THESE HAS ALREADY BASICALLY EXITED THE AREA
TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SECOND IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO EASTERN OHIO
AND SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REST OF THE AREA SOUTH
OF A NEW PHILADELPHIA TO INDIANA LINE THIS EVENING. BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THESE CELLS. HOWEVER...THEY ARE
RATHER TRANSIENT...SO FLOODING CONCERNS ARE MINIMIZED AS A RESULT.

DEEP INSTABILITY AND A VERY HUMID AIR MASS REMAIN BEHIND THE
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...SO WHILE SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT...THE CHANCES DO LOOK TO DWINDLE OWING TO A LACK OF
FORCING OTHER THAN ANOTHER TRANSIENT WAVE THAT MAY BRING SOME
SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE REAL FOCUS BY TONIGHT LOOKS
TO BE TURNING TO THE DAYTIME ON TUESDAY...WHEN THE MID-LEVEL
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT.

MODEL SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE KEYING IN ON A LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON ARRIVAL INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH A
MID-AFTERNOON CROSSING OF THE PITTSBURGH AREA...AND A LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING EXIT OF THE CWA FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT WHILE LIKELY CONTINUING TO BE RATHER
DEEP...SHOULD ALSO BE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE OWING IN LARGE PART TO A
LACK OF INSOLATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE EARLY PORTIONS
OF THE DAY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION.
ADDITIONALLY...OWING TO THE FACT THAT THE MID-LEVEL WAVE LARGELY
SHEARS OFF TO OUR NORTH...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES REALLY ONLY RUN
UP TOWARD 35 KTS OF WEAKLY VEERED FLOW AS THE BOUNDARY IMPINGES
UPON THE AREA. AGAIN WITH THIS VARIABLE...THOSE VALUES DO NOT
EXACTLY MAKE THIS FORECASTER PARTICULARLY JUMPY.
FURTHERMORE...WITH SHEAR VALUES THAT HIGH AND A FAIRLY QUICK
MOVING WAVE PASSAGE...WHILE THE CELLS THAT DO MOVE THROUGH ARE
LIKELY TO BE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS...PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL IN
ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION AS WELL AS TRAINING OF ECHOES SEEMS
UNLIKELY. THIS SHOULD MINIMIZE THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AS WELL.
IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT SPC HAS PLACED THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR TOMORROW...HOWEVER OWING TO LESS THAN STELLAR INSTABILITY
VALUES...MODERATE SHEAR...A LACK OF INSOLATION...FORCING THAT
FOCUSES HEIGHT FALLS LARGELY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG WITH
THE HIGHEST SHEAR VALUES...IT SEEMS LIKE THIS SLIGHT RISK IS A
LESS CONFIDENT SLIGHT RISK THAN NORMAL.  FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT EXITS EAST TUES NIGHT QUICKLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
GOES ZONAL. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS AT THE SFC WEDS WITH
SKIES GENERALLY CLEARING THROUGH THURS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE AVERAGE BOTH DAYS AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING FOR
WARM...ALBEIT WEAK...SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
THREAT OF RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WORK WEEK.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE LOCALLY MARRED BY CONVECTION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THOUGH TIMING IS DUBIOUS AT BEST AT THE
MOMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL. MVFR VIS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN
OVERNIGHT AS CONVECTION DWINDLES AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AGAIN RETURNS. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ON THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING A BETTER RISK OF SHOWERS/STORMS AT ALL SITES
NEAR/AFTER THE END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST VALID PERIOD. FRIES

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LIKELY AT ALL SITES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011834
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
234 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE GOING INTO
THE EVENING...WITH HUMID AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 12Z KPBZ RAOB INDICATED A NEARLY SATURATED ATMOSPHERE BELOW
700 MB...AND WHILE SOME OF THE MOISTURE HAS LIKELY MIXED OUT A BIT
AS STRATUS HAS BROKEN UP ACROSS THE AREA...THE SOURCE REGION AIR
MASS FOR THE LARGE SCALE FLOW CONTINUES TO HAVE DEWPOINTS LARGELY
IN THE LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...RATHER DEEP INSTABILITY
WAS NOTED ON THE 12Z SOUNDING...AND IT LIKELY STILL EXISTS OVER
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS RATHER
NEBULOUS TO FIND AT THE MOMENT...A COUPLE OF WEAK EMBEDDED
VORTEXES SEEM TO BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO HARNESS THIS INSTABILITY
AND TRANSLATE IT INTO RATHER EFFICIENT HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN PWAT VALUES OF AROUND OR ABOVE 2
INCHES. THE FIRST OF THESE HAS ALREADY BASICALLY EXITED THE AREA
TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SECOND IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO EASTERN OHIO
AND SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REST OF THE AREA SOUTH
OF A NEW PHILADELPHIA TO INDIANA LINE THIS EVENING. BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THESE CELLS. HOWEVER...THEY ARE
RATHER TRANSIENT...SO FLOODING CONCERNS ARE MINIMIZED AS A RESULT.

DEEP INSTABILITY AND A VERY HUMID AIR MASS REMAIN BEHIND THE
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...SO WHILE SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT...THE CHANCES DO LOOK TO DWINDLE OWING TO A LACK OF
FORCING OTHER THAN ANOTHER TRANSIENT WAVE THAT MAY BRING SOME
SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE REAL FOCUS BY TONIGHT LOOKS
TO BE TURNING TO THE DAYTIME ON TUESDAY...WHEN THE MID-LEVEL
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT.

MODEL SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE KEYING IN ON A LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON ARRIVAL INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH A
MID-AFTERNOON CROSSING OF THE PITTSBURGH AREA...AND A LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING EXIT OF THE CWA FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT WHILE LIKELY CONTINUING TO BE RATHER
DEEP...SHOULD ALSO BE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE OWING IN LARGE PART TO A
LACK OF INSOLATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE EARLY PORTIONS
OF THE DAY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION.
ADDITIONALLY...OWING TO THE FACT THAT THE MID-LEVEL WAVE LARGELY
SHEARS OFF TO OUR NORTH...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES REALLY ONLY RUN
UP TOWARD 35 KTS OF WEAKLY VEERED FLOW AS THE BOUNDARY IMPINGES
UPON THE AREA. AGAIN WITH THIS VARIABLE...THOSE VALUES DO NOT
EXACTLY MAKE THIS FORECASTER PARTICULARLY JUMPY.
FURTHERMORE...WITH SHEAR VALUES THAT HIGH AND A FAIRLY QUICK
MOVING WAVE PASSAGE...WHILE THE CELLS THAT DO MOVE THROUGH ARE
LIKELY TO BE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS...PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL IN
ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION AS WELL AS TRAINING OF ECHOES SEEMS
UNLIKELY. THIS SHOULD MINIMIZE THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AS WELL.
IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT SPC HAS PLACED THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR TOMORROW...HOWEVER OWING TO LESS THAN STELLAR INSTABILITY
VALUES...MODERATE SHEAR...A LACK OF INSOLATION...FORCING THAT
FOCUSES HEIGHT FALLS LARGELY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG WITH
THE HIGHEST SHEAR VALUES...IT SEEMS LIKE THIS SLIGHT RISK IS A
LESS CONFIDENT SLIGHT RISK THAN NORMAL.  FRIES



&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AS THE HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN ENTRENCHED. TIMING ON THE
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON VIEWABLE WITH A LINE OF
LOW LEVEL FORCING. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET TO SEE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH THE RISK FOR STORMS. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
TUESDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF CONVECTION. WOULD THINK
THE GREATER THREAT WOULD BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS WILL RISE TO
NEAR 2 INCHES RIGHT AHEAD OF THE CROSSING BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST IN THE EVENING...CARRYING
THE BOUNDARY WITH IT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION.

DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE
COMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE LOCALLY MARRED BY CONVECTION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THOUGH TIMINIG IS DUBIOUS AT BEST AT THE
MOMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL. MVFR VIS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN
OVERNIGHT AS CONVECTION DWINDLES AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AGAIN RETURNS. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ON THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING A BETTER RISK OF SHOWERS/STORMS AT ALL SITES
NEAR/AFTER THE END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST VALID PERIOD. FRIES

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LIKELY AT ALL SITES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011834
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
234 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE GOING INTO
THE EVENING...WITH HUMID AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 12Z KPBZ RAOB INDICATED A NEARLY SATURATED ATMOSPHERE BELOW
700 MB...AND WHILE SOME OF THE MOISTURE HAS LIKELY MIXED OUT A BIT
AS STRATUS HAS BROKEN UP ACROSS THE AREA...THE SOURCE REGION AIR
MASS FOR THE LARGE SCALE FLOW CONTINUES TO HAVE DEWPOINTS LARGELY
IN THE LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...RATHER DEEP INSTABILITY
WAS NOTED ON THE 12Z SOUNDING...AND IT LIKELY STILL EXISTS OVER
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS RATHER
NEBULOUS TO FIND AT THE MOMENT...A COUPLE OF WEAK EMBEDDED
VORTEXES SEEM TO BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO HARNESS THIS INSTABILITY
AND TRANSLATE IT INTO RATHER EFFICIENT HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN PWAT VALUES OF AROUND OR ABOVE 2
INCHES. THE FIRST OF THESE HAS ALREADY BASICALLY EXITED THE AREA
TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SECOND IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO EASTERN OHIO
AND SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REST OF THE AREA SOUTH
OF A NEW PHILADELPHIA TO INDIANA LINE THIS EVENING. BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THESE CELLS. HOWEVER...THEY ARE
RATHER TRANSIENT...SO FLOODING CONCERNS ARE MINIMIZED AS A RESULT.

DEEP INSTABILITY AND A VERY HUMID AIR MASS REMAIN BEHIND THE
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...SO WHILE SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT...THE CHANCES DO LOOK TO DWINDLE OWING TO A LACK OF
FORCING OTHER THAN ANOTHER TRANSIENT WAVE THAT MAY BRING SOME
SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE REAL FOCUS BY TONIGHT LOOKS
TO BE TURNING TO THE DAYTIME ON TUESDAY...WHEN THE MID-LEVEL
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT.

MODEL SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE KEYING IN ON A LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON ARRIVAL INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH A
MID-AFTERNOON CROSSING OF THE PITTSBURGH AREA...AND A LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING EXIT OF THE CWA FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT WHILE LIKELY CONTINUING TO BE RATHER
DEEP...SHOULD ALSO BE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE OWING IN LARGE PART TO A
LACK OF INSOLATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE EARLY PORTIONS
OF THE DAY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION.
ADDITIONALLY...OWING TO THE FACT THAT THE MID-LEVEL WAVE LARGELY
SHEARS OFF TO OUR NORTH...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES REALLY ONLY RUN
UP TOWARD 35 KTS OF WEAKLY VEERED FLOW AS THE BOUNDARY IMPINGES
UPON THE AREA. AGAIN WITH THIS VARIABLE...THOSE VALUES DO NOT
EXACTLY MAKE THIS FORECASTER PARTICULARLY JUMPY.
FURTHERMORE...WITH SHEAR VALUES THAT HIGH AND A FAIRLY QUICK
MOVING WAVE PASSAGE...WHILE THE CELLS THAT DO MOVE THROUGH ARE
LIKELY TO BE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS...PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL IN
ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION AS WELL AS TRAINING OF ECHOES SEEMS
UNLIKELY. THIS SHOULD MINIMIZE THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AS WELL.
IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT SPC HAS PLACED THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR TOMORROW...HOWEVER OWING TO LESS THAN STELLAR INSTABILITY
VALUES...MODERATE SHEAR...A LACK OF INSOLATION...FORCING THAT
FOCUSES HEIGHT FALLS LARGELY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG WITH
THE HIGHEST SHEAR VALUES...IT SEEMS LIKE THIS SLIGHT RISK IS A
LESS CONFIDENT SLIGHT RISK THAN NORMAL.  FRIES



&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AS THE HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN ENTRENCHED. TIMING ON THE
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON VIEWABLE WITH A LINE OF
LOW LEVEL FORCING. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET TO SEE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH THE RISK FOR STORMS. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
TUESDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF CONVECTION. WOULD THINK
THE GREATER THREAT WOULD BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS WILL RISE TO
NEAR 2 INCHES RIGHT AHEAD OF THE CROSSING BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST IN THE EVENING...CARRYING
THE BOUNDARY WITH IT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION.

DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE
COMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE LOCALLY MARRED BY CONVECTION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THOUGH TIMINIG IS DUBIOUS AT BEST AT THE
MOMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL. MVFR VIS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN
OVERNIGHT AS CONVECTION DWINDLES AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AGAIN RETURNS. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ON THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING A BETTER RISK OF SHOWERS/STORMS AT ALL SITES
NEAR/AFTER THE END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST VALID PERIOD. FRIES

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LIKELY AT ALL SITES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011455
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1055 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC REVEALS A COUPLE OF LOW LEVEL VORTEXES
THAT ARE WORKING TO HARNESS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO GENERATE FAIRLY EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION
PRODUCING SHOWERS FIRST IN A BATCH MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AS WELL AS IN A SECOND BATCH IN
SOUTHWESTERN OHIO. THE FIRST OF THESE SHOULD BE DEPARTING THE AREA
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WHILE THE SECOND WILL BE OOZING INTO
THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. GIVEN LITTLE EXPECTED
CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS...DEWPOINTS ALREADY IN THE LOWER 70S...DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE...AMPLE INSTABILITY...THESE SHOWERS OVER OHIO
WITH AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY HOLD TOGETHER
AND STRENGTHEN INTO THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF THIS...POPS WERE INCREASED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA FOR A BIT HIGHER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ADDITIONALLY...QPF VALUES WERE
INCREASED RATHER MARKEDLY IN THE AXIS DOWN WHICH THESE SHOWERS ARE
MOST LIKELY TO TRANSLATE...THAT BEING SOUTHERN ZANESVILLE TO
PITTSBURGH AND SOUTH.

CLOUD COVER SEEMS LIKELY TO BREAK UP SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS...HOWEVER THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP MOISTURE SEEMS LIKELY
TO MAKE A STRATUS BREAK UP JUST IMMEDIATELY TURN INTO A SEMI-
CONTINUOUS CUMULUS DECK SHOULD IT OCCUR. AS A RESULT...THE GOING
FORECAST FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SEEMS PRUDENT. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING VERY MUCH TODAY...HOWEVER HIGH HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNCOMFORTABLE. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AS THE HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN ENTRENCHED. TIMING ON THE
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON VIEWABLE WITH A LINE OF
LOW LEVEL FORCING. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET TO SEE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH THE RISK FOR STORMS. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
TUESDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF CONVECTION. WOULD THINK
THE GREATER THREAT WOULD BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS WILL RISE TO
NEAR 2 INCHES RIGHT AHEAD OF THE CROSSING BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST IN THE EVENING...CARRYING
THE BOUNDARY WITH IT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION.

DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE
COMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT A GRDL RTN TO VFR BY THIS AFTN AS WARMTH AND SLY FLOW MIX OUT
THE ST BLANKETED OVR THE REGION.  MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
EARLY ON TUE WITH PREFRONTAL CONVECTION.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011455
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1055 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC REVEALS A COUPLE OF LOW LEVEL VORTEXES
THAT ARE WORKING TO HARNESS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO GENERATE FAIRLY EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION
PRODUCING SHOWERS FIRST IN A BATCH MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AS WELL AS IN A SECOND BATCH IN
SOUTHWESTERN OHIO. THE FIRST OF THESE SHOULD BE DEPARTING THE AREA
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WHILE THE SECOND WILL BE OOZING INTO
THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. GIVEN LITTLE EXPECTED
CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS...DEWPOINTS ALREADY IN THE LOWER 70S...DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE...AMPLE INSTABILITY...THESE SHOWERS OVER OHIO
WITH AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY HOLD TOGETHER
AND STRENGTHEN INTO THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF THIS...POPS WERE INCREASED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA FOR A BIT HIGHER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ADDITIONALLY...QPF VALUES WERE
INCREASED RATHER MARKEDLY IN THE AXIS DOWN WHICH THESE SHOWERS ARE
MOST LIKELY TO TRANSLATE...THAT BEING SOUTHERN ZANESVILLE TO
PITTSBURGH AND SOUTH.

CLOUD COVER SEEMS LIKELY TO BREAK UP SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS...HOWEVER THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP MOISTURE SEEMS LIKELY
TO MAKE A STRATUS BREAK UP JUST IMMEDIATELY TURN INTO A SEMI-
CONTINUOUS CUMULUS DECK SHOULD IT OCCUR. AS A RESULT...THE GOING
FORECAST FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SEEMS PRUDENT. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING VERY MUCH TODAY...HOWEVER HIGH HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNCOMFORTABLE. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AS THE HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN ENTRENCHED. TIMING ON THE
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON VIEWABLE WITH A LINE OF
LOW LEVEL FORCING. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET TO SEE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH THE RISK FOR STORMS. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
TUESDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF CONVECTION. WOULD THINK
THE GREATER THREAT WOULD BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS WILL RISE TO
NEAR 2 INCHES RIGHT AHEAD OF THE CROSSING BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST IN THE EVENING...CARRYING
THE BOUNDARY WITH IT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION.

DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE
COMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT A GRDL RTN TO VFR BY THIS AFTN AS WARMTH AND SLY FLOW MIX OUT
THE ST BLANKETED OVR THE REGION.  MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
EARLY ON TUE WITH PREFRONTAL CONVECTION.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011018
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
618 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE PRE DAWN UPDATE.

PREVIOUS...
NOT MUCH TO TARGET ON TODAY AS FAR AS CONVECTION IS CONCERNED.
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE AS WE ARE STUCK UNDER AN AIR-MASS
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
HOLDING ON TO A SATURATED LAYER FOR MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS.
LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXES OUT IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SUNSHINE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH
IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT IN THIS
UNSTABLE REGIME TO FIRE CONVECTION. IN ACCORDANCE WITH THIS...
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AS THE HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN ENTRENCHED. TIMING ON THE
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON VIEWABLE WITH A LINE OF
LOW LEVEL FORCING. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET TO SEE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH THE RISK FOR STORMS. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
TUESDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF CONVECTION. WOULD THINK
THE GREATER THREAT WOULD BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS WILL RISE TO
NEAR 2 INCHES RIGHT AHEAD OF THE CROSSING BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST IN THE EVENING...CARRYING
THE BOUNDARY WITH IT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION.

DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE
COMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT A GRDL RTN TO VFR BY THIS AFTN AS WARMTH AND SLY FLOW MIX OUT
THE ST BLANKETED OVR THE REGION.  MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
EARLY ON TUE WITH PREFRONTAL CONVECTION.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/22






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011018
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
618 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE PRE DAWN UPDATE.

PREVIOUS...
NOT MUCH TO TARGET ON TODAY AS FAR AS CONVECTION IS CONCERNED.
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE AS WE ARE STUCK UNDER AN AIR-MASS
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
HOLDING ON TO A SATURATED LAYER FOR MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS.
LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXES OUT IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SUNSHINE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH
IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT IN THIS
UNSTABLE REGIME TO FIRE CONVECTION. IN ACCORDANCE WITH THIS...
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AS THE HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN ENTRENCHED. TIMING ON THE
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON VIEWABLE WITH A LINE OF
LOW LEVEL FORCING. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET TO SEE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH THE RISK FOR STORMS. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
TUESDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF CONVECTION. WOULD THINK
THE GREATER THREAT WOULD BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS WILL RISE TO
NEAR 2 INCHES RIGHT AHEAD OF THE CROSSING BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST IN THE EVENING...CARRYING
THE BOUNDARY WITH IT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION.

DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE
COMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT A GRDL RTN TO VFR BY THIS AFTN AS WARMTH AND SLY FLOW MIX OUT
THE ST BLANKETED OVR THE REGION.  MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
EARLY ON TUE WITH PREFRONTAL CONVECTION.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/22





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010808
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
408 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT MUCH TO TARGET ON TODAY AS FAR AS CONVECTION IS CONCERNED.
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE AS WE ARE STUCK UNDER AN AIR-MASS
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
HOLDING ON TO A SATURATED LAYER FOR MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS.
LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXES OUT IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SUNSHINE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH
IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT IN THIS
UNSTABLE REGIME TO FIRE CONVECTION. IN ACCORDANCE WITH THIS...
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AS THE HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN ENTRENCHED. TIMING ON THE
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON VIEWABLE WITH A LINE OF
LOW LEVEL FORCING. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET TO SEE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH THE RISK FOR STORMS. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
TUESDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF CONVECTION. WOULD THINK
THE GREATER THREAT WOULD BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS WILL RISE TO
NEAR 2 INCHES RIGHT AHEAD OF THE CROSSING BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST IN THE EVENING...CARRYING
THE BOUNDARY WITH IT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION.

DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE
COMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FURTHER CONDITION DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MRNG WITH
IFR ST AND FG DVLPMNT AS LLVL MSTR RMNS POOLED ALNG THE WRN FLANK
OF A SFC RIDGE AXIS.

EXPECT A GRDL RTN TO VFR AFTR DAYBREAK AS WARMTH AND SLY FLOW
MIXES OUT THE MSTR. THE BTR CHC FOR MORE RESTRICTIONS WL BE WITH
PREFRONTAL CONVECTION LATE TNGT.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010808
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
408 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT MUCH TO TARGET ON TODAY AS FAR AS CONVECTION IS CONCERNED.
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE AS WE ARE STUCK UNDER AN AIR-MASS
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
HOLDING ON TO A SATURATED LAYER FOR MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS.
LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXES OUT IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SUNSHINE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH
IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT IN THIS
UNSTABLE REGIME TO FIRE CONVECTION. IN ACCORDANCE WITH THIS...
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AS THE HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN ENTRENCHED. TIMING ON THE
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON VIEWABLE WITH A LINE OF
LOW LEVEL FORCING. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET TO SEE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH THE RISK FOR STORMS. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
TUESDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF CONVECTION. WOULD THINK
THE GREATER THREAT WOULD BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS WILL RISE TO
NEAR 2 INCHES RIGHT AHEAD OF THE CROSSING BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST IN THE EVENING...CARRYING
THE BOUNDARY WITH IT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION.

DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE
COMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FURTHER CONDITION DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MRNG WITH
IFR ST AND FG DVLPMNT AS LLVL MSTR RMNS POOLED ALNG THE WRN FLANK
OF A SFC RIDGE AXIS.

EXPECT A GRDL RTN TO VFR AFTR DAYBREAK AS WARMTH AND SLY FLOW
MIXES OUT THE MSTR. THE BTR CHC FOR MORE RESTRICTIONS WL BE WITH
PREFRONTAL CONVECTION LATE TNGT.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010510 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
110 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ONLY A FEW CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HAVE UPDATED POPS AS
SHORTWAVE HAS EXITED BRINGING AN END TO MOST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY. ANOTHER WAVE WILL SKIRT THE SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES LATE
TONIGHT SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.
TEMPS ADJUSTED TO LATEST GUIDANCE.

NOT MUCH TO TARGET ON TODAY AS FAR AS CONVECTION IS CONCERNED.
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE AS WE ARE STUCK UNDER AN AIR-MASS
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
HOLDING ON TO A SATURATED LAYER FOR MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS.
LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXES OUT IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SUNSHINE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH
IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT IN THIS
UNSTABLE REGIME TO FIRE CONVECTION. IN ACCORDANCE WITH THIS...
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AS THE HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN ENTRENCHED. TIMING ON THE
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON VIEWABLE WITH A LINE OF
LOW LEVEL FORCING. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET TO SEE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH THE RISK FOR STORMS. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
TUESDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF CONVECTION. WOULD THINK
THE GREATER THREAT WOULD BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS WILL RISE TO
NEAR 2 INCHES RIGHT AHEAD OF THE CROSSING BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST IN THE EVENING...CARRYING
THE BOUNDARY WITH IT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION.

DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE
COMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FURTHER CONDITION DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MRNG WITH
IFR ST AND FG DVLPMNT AS LLVL MSTR RMNS POOLED ALNG THE WRN FLANK
OF A SFC RIDGE AXIS.

EXPECT A GRDL RTN TO VFR AFTR DAYBREAK AS WARMTH AND SLY FLOW
MIXES OUT THE MSTR. THE BTR CHC FOR MORE RESTRICTIONS WL BE WITH
PREFRONTAL CONVECTION LATE TNGT.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010510 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
110 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ONLY A FEW CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HAVE UPDATED POPS AS
SHORTWAVE HAS EXITED BRINGING AN END TO MOST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY. ANOTHER WAVE WILL SKIRT THE SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES LATE
TONIGHT SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.
TEMPS ADJUSTED TO LATEST GUIDANCE.

NOT MUCH TO TARGET ON TODAY AS FAR AS CONVECTION IS CONCERNED.
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE AS WE ARE STUCK UNDER AN AIR-MASS
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
HOLDING ON TO A SATURATED LAYER FOR MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS.
LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXES OUT IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SUNSHINE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH
IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT IN THIS
UNSTABLE REGIME TO FIRE CONVECTION. IN ACCORDANCE WITH THIS...
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AS THE HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN ENTRENCHED. TIMING ON THE
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON VIEWABLE WITH A LINE OF
LOW LEVEL FORCING. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET TO SEE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH THE RISK FOR STORMS. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
TUESDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF CONVECTION. WOULD THINK
THE GREATER THREAT WOULD BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS WILL RISE TO
NEAR 2 INCHES RIGHT AHEAD OF THE CROSSING BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST IN THE EVENING...CARRYING
THE BOUNDARY WITH IT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION.

DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE
COMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FURTHER CONDITION DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MRNG WITH
IFR ST AND FG DVLPMNT AS LLVL MSTR RMNS POOLED ALNG THE WRN FLANK
OF A SFC RIDGE AXIS.

EXPECT A GRDL RTN TO VFR AFTR DAYBREAK AS WARMTH AND SLY FLOW
MIXES OUT THE MSTR. THE BTR CHC FOR MORE RESTRICTIONS WL BE WITH
PREFRONTAL CONVECTION LATE TNGT.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010137
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
937 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHWRS WL CONT TO GRDLY DMNSH FOR MOST OF THE AREA AS THE ATM
STABILIZES...ALTHOUGH A WK SHRTWV WL BRUSH AREAS S OF THE PA
BORDER OVRNGT WITH ADDNL SCT SHWRS EXPD. MDL PROGS INDICATE MORE
POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS THAN FOG OVRNGT WITH LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE.

ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS ARE EXPD MON...BUT WITH NO SHRTWV
SPPRT NOT EXPG ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. WARMING IN THE MID LVLS THRU
THE DAY SHOULD ALSO HELP TO KEEP ANY ACTIVITY LMTD. TEMPS WL RMN A
FEW DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THINK WE START MAINLY DRY MONDAY EVENING IN FLAT FLOW WITH
RELATIVELY LITTLE MOISTURE. MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO CROSS ON TUESDAY. MOST MODELS ARE ON
BOARD WITH FRONTAL TIMING...SAVE THE GFS WHICH SEEMS A BIT TOO
FAST. HAVE CHANCE POPS NW OF PIT/HLG THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...AND
THEN ROLL LIKELY POPS THROUGH WITH FROPA. MOISTURE DOES POOL AHEAD
OF BOUNDARY BUT NOT TO EXTENT OF TODAY...TOPPING OUT AR0UND 1.8
INCH PWAT. SOME MODEST SUPPORT ALOFT WITH RRQ OF H250 JET NOT TOO
FAR TO THE NW...ALTHOUGH MIDLEVEL WAVE ARRIVES POST-FROPA. A
GENERAL HALF TO THREE-QUARTER INCH RAINFALL LOOKS REASONABLE.

AS FOR SEVERE THREAT...THERE CERTAINLY WILL BE ENOUGH FLOW...WITH
40-50 KNOTS AT H500 AND 35-40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN QUESTION THOUGH AS CLOUD COVER FIGURES TO BE ABUNDANT
FOR MOST OF THE DAY. LIKE THE CURRENT SPC IDEA OF A 5 PERCENT
RISK AREA. STORM MOTION PLUS A BIT LESS EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION
WILL ALSO HOPEFULLY KEEP THE FLOOD THREAT AT BAY. GOING FOR A
FAIRLY SMALL DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPERATURE DUE TO THE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...BUT VALUES WILL REMAIN A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL.

SOME SHRA MAY LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS WITH H500
WAVE PASSING THROUGH...OTHERWISE WE SHOULD DRY OUT BY 06Z
WEDNESDAY. DECREASING CLOUDS THEREAFTER...WITH A FAIR BIT OF SUN
ON WEDNESDAY. DESPITE ZONAL FLOW...H500 HEIGHTS WILL BE A BIT
HIGH...SO EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
A SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. WHILE THE 00Z GFS KEEPS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...ECMWF AND
SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE FRONT APPROACHING MORE QUICKLY...AND HAVE
SPED UP TIMING IN FORECAST. WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY
DECENT MODEL TIMING THIS FAR OUT. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR EXPD INTO THE EVE ALONG WITH SCT SHWRS AS A
DISTURBANCE EXITS. A GRDL DCR TO IFR IN ST AND BR IS EXPD OVRNGT
WITH PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE. EXP A GRDL RTN TO VFR BY
ERLY MON AFTN. ISOLD TO SCT AFTN CNVCTN IS PSBL ALSO...BUT COVG
IS EXPD TO BE TOO LOW FOR A MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010137
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
937 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHWRS WL CONT TO GRDLY DMNSH FOR MOST OF THE AREA AS THE ATM
STABILIZES...ALTHOUGH A WK SHRTWV WL BRUSH AREAS S OF THE PA
BORDER OVRNGT WITH ADDNL SCT SHWRS EXPD. MDL PROGS INDICATE MORE
POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS THAN FOG OVRNGT WITH LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE.

ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS ARE EXPD MON...BUT WITH NO SHRTWV
SPPRT NOT EXPG ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. WARMING IN THE MID LVLS THRU
THE DAY SHOULD ALSO HELP TO KEEP ANY ACTIVITY LMTD. TEMPS WL RMN A
FEW DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THINK WE START MAINLY DRY MONDAY EVENING IN FLAT FLOW WITH
RELATIVELY LITTLE MOISTURE. MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO CROSS ON TUESDAY. MOST MODELS ARE ON
BOARD WITH FRONTAL TIMING...SAVE THE GFS WHICH SEEMS A BIT TOO
FAST. HAVE CHANCE POPS NW OF PIT/HLG THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...AND
THEN ROLL LIKELY POPS THROUGH WITH FROPA. MOISTURE DOES POOL AHEAD
OF BOUNDARY BUT NOT TO EXTENT OF TODAY...TOPPING OUT AR0UND 1.8
INCH PWAT. SOME MODEST SUPPORT ALOFT WITH RRQ OF H250 JET NOT TOO
FAR TO THE NW...ALTHOUGH MIDLEVEL WAVE ARRIVES POST-FROPA. A
GENERAL HALF TO THREE-QUARTER INCH RAINFALL LOOKS REASONABLE.

AS FOR SEVERE THREAT...THERE CERTAINLY WILL BE ENOUGH FLOW...WITH
40-50 KNOTS AT H500 AND 35-40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN QUESTION THOUGH AS CLOUD COVER FIGURES TO BE ABUNDANT
FOR MOST OF THE DAY. LIKE THE CURRENT SPC IDEA OF A 5 PERCENT
RISK AREA. STORM MOTION PLUS A BIT LESS EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION
WILL ALSO HOPEFULLY KEEP THE FLOOD THREAT AT BAY. GOING FOR A
FAIRLY SMALL DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPERATURE DUE TO THE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...BUT VALUES WILL REMAIN A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL.

SOME SHRA MAY LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS WITH H500
WAVE PASSING THROUGH...OTHERWISE WE SHOULD DRY OUT BY 06Z
WEDNESDAY. DECREASING CLOUDS THEREAFTER...WITH A FAIR BIT OF SUN
ON WEDNESDAY. DESPITE ZONAL FLOW...H500 HEIGHTS WILL BE A BIT
HIGH...SO EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
A SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. WHILE THE 00Z GFS KEEPS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...ECMWF AND
SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE FRONT APPROACHING MORE QUICKLY...AND HAVE
SPED UP TIMING IN FORECAST. WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY
DECENT MODEL TIMING THIS FAR OUT. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR EXPD INTO THE EVE ALONG WITH SCT SHWRS AS A
DISTURBANCE EXITS. A GRDL DCR TO IFR IN ST AND BR IS EXPD OVRNGT
WITH PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE. EXP A GRDL RTN TO VFR BY
ERLY MON AFTN. ISOLD TO SCT AFTN CNVCTN IS PSBL ALSO...BUT COVG
IS EXPD TO BE TOO LOW FOR A MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 312337
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
737 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
ERLY EVE UPDT TO ADJ POPS. PREVIOUS DISC...SCATTERED SHWRS WL CONT
INTO THE EVE AS A SHRTWV EXITS. ANOTHER WK MID LVL WAVE WL GRAZE
AREAS S OF THE PA BORDER LTR TNGT WITH SOME ADDNL SHWRS...THOUGH
MUCH OF THE PCPN SHOULD RMN TO THE S. PWATS RMN ELEVATED BUT WITH
LACK OF INSTBY AND UPR SPPRT NOT EXPG A SGFNT HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT.

ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS ARE EXPD MON...BUT WITH NO SHRTWV
SPPRT NOT EXPG ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. WARMING IN THE MID LVLS THRU
THE DAY SHOULD ALSO HELP TO KEEP ANY ACTIVITY LMTD. TEMPS WL RMN A
FEW DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THINK WE START MAINLY DRY MONDAY EVENING IN FLAT FLOW WITH
RELATIVELY LITTLE MOISTURE. MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO CROSS ON TUESDAY. MOST MODELS ARE ON
BOARD WITH FRONTAL TIMING...SAVE THE GFS WHICH SEEMS A BIT TOO
FAST. HAVE CHANCE POPS NW OF PIT/HLG THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...AND
THEN ROLL LIKELY POPS THROUGH WITH FROPA. MOISTURE DOES POOL AHEAD
OF BOUNDARY BUT NOT TO EXTENT OF TODAY...TOPPING OUT AR0UND 1.8
INCH PWAT. SOME MODEST SUPPORT ALOFT WITH RRQ OF H250 JET NOT TOO
FAR TO THE NW...ALTHOUGH MIDLEVEL WAVE ARRIVES POST-FROPA. A
GENERAL HALF TO THREE-QUARTER INCH RAINFALL LOOKS REASONABLE.

AS FOR SEVERE THREAT...THERE CERTAINLY WILL BE ENOUGH FLOW...WITH
40-50 KNOTS AT H500 AND 35-40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN QUESTION THOUGH AS CLOUD COVER FIGURES TO BE ABUNDANT
FOR MOST OF THE DAY. LIKE THE CURRENT SPC IDEA OF A 5 PERCENT
RISK AREA. STORM MOTION PLUS A BIT LESS EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION
WILL ALSO HOPEFULLY KEEP THE FLOOD THREAT AT BAY. GOING FOR A
FAIRLY SMALL DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPERATURE DUE TO THE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...BUT VALUES WILL REMAIN A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL.

SOME SHRA MAY LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS WITH H500
WAVE PASSING THROUGH...OTHERWISE WE SHOULD DRY OUT BY 06Z
WEDNESDAY. DECREASING CLOUDS THEREAFTER...WITH A FAIR BIT OF SUN
ON WEDNESDAY. DESPITE ZONAL FLOW...H500 HEIGHTS WILL BE A BIT
HIGH...SO EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
A SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. WHILE THE 00Z GFS KEEPS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...ECMWF AND
SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE FRONT APPROACHING MORE QUICKLY...AND HAVE
SPED UP TIMING IN FORECAST. WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY
DECENT MODEL TIMING THIS FAR OUT. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR EXPD INTO THE EVE ALONG WITH SCT SHWRS AS A
DISTURBANCE EXITS. A GRDL DCR TO IFR IS EXPD OVRNGT WITH PLENTY OF
LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE. EXP A GRDL RTN TO VFR BY ERLY MON AFTN.
ISOLD TO SCT AFTN CNVCTN IS PSBL ALSO...BUT COVG EXPD TO BE TOO
LOW FOR A MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 312054
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
454 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHWRS WL CONT INTO THE EVE AS A SHRTWV EXITS. ANOTHER WK
MID LVL WAVE WL GRAZE AREAS S OF THE PA BORDER LTR TNGT WITH SOME
ADDNL SHWRS...THOUGH MUCH OF THE PCPN SHOULD RMN TO THE S. PWATS
RMN ELEVATED BUT WITH LACK OF INSTBY AND UPR SPPRT NOT EXPG A
SGFNT HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.

ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS ARE EXPD MON...BUT WITH NO SHRTWV
SPPRT NOT EXPG ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. WARMING IN THE MID LVLS THRU
THE DAY SHOULD ALSO HELP TO KEEP ANY ACTIVITY LMTD. TEMPS WL RMN A
FEW DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THINK WE START MAINLY DRY MONDAY EVENING IN FLAT FLOW WITH
RELATIVELY LITTLE MOISTURE. MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO CROSS ON TUESDAY. MOST MODELS ARE ON
BOARD WITH FRONTAL TIMING...SAVE THE GFS WHICH SEEMS A BIT TOO
FAST. HAVE CHANCE POPS NW OF PIT/HLG THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...AND
THEN ROLL LIKELY POPS THROUGH WITH FROPA. MOISTURE DOES POOL AHEAD
OF BOUNDARY BUT NOT TO EXTENT OF TODAY...TOPPING OUT AR0UND 1.8
INCH PWAT. SOME MODEST SUPPORT ALOFT WITH RRQ OF H250 JET NOT TOO
FAR TO THE NW...ALTHOUGH MIDLEVEL WAVE ARRIVES POST-FROPA. A
GENERAL HALF TO THREE-QUARTER INCH RAINFALL LOOKS REASONABLE.

AS FOR SEVERE THREAT...THERE CERTAINLY WILL BE ENOUGH FLOW...WITH
40-50 KNOTS AT H500 AND 35-40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN QUESTION THOUGH AS CLOUD COVER FIGURES TO BE ABUNDANT
FOR MOST OF THE DAY. LIKE THE CURRENT SPC IDEA OF A 5 PERCENT
RISK AREA. STORM MOTION PLUS A BIT LESS EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION
WILL ALSO HOPEFULLY KEEP THE FLOOD THREAT AT BAY. GOING FOR A
FAIRLY SMALL DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPERATURE DUE TO THE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...BUT VALUES WILL REMAIN A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL.

SOME SHRA MAY LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS WITH H500
WAVE PASSING THROUGH...OTHERWISE WE SHOULD DRY OUT BY 06Z
WEDNESDAY. DECREASING CLOUDS THEREAFTER...WITH A FAIR BIT OF SUN
ON WEDNESDAY. DESPITE ZONAL FLOW...H500 HEIGHTS WILL BE A BIT
HIGH...SO EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
A SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. WHILE THE 00Z GFS KEEPS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...ECMWF AND
SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE FRONT APPROACHING MORE QUICKLY...AND HAVE
SPED UP TIMING IN FORECAST. WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY
DECENT MODEL TIMING THIS FAR OUT. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDS EXPD INTO THE EVE ALONG WITH SCT SHWRS AS A
DISTURBANCE EXITS. A GRDL DCR TO IFR IS EXPD OVRNGT WITH PLENTY OF
LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE. EXP A GRDL RTN TO VFR BY ERLY MON AFTN.
ISOLD TO SCT AFTN CNVCTN IS PSBL ALSO...BUT COVG EXPD TO BE TOO
LOW FOR A MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 312054
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
454 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHWRS WL CONT INTO THE EVE AS A SHRTWV EXITS. ANOTHER WK
MID LVL WAVE WL GRAZE AREAS S OF THE PA BORDER LTR TNGT WITH SOME
ADDNL SHWRS...THOUGH MUCH OF THE PCPN SHOULD RMN TO THE S. PWATS
RMN ELEVATED BUT WITH LACK OF INSTBY AND UPR SPPRT NOT EXPG A
SGFNT HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.

ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS ARE EXPD MON...BUT WITH NO SHRTWV
SPPRT NOT EXPG ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. WARMING IN THE MID LVLS THRU
THE DAY SHOULD ALSO HELP TO KEEP ANY ACTIVITY LMTD. TEMPS WL RMN A
FEW DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THINK WE START MAINLY DRY MONDAY EVENING IN FLAT FLOW WITH
RELATIVELY LITTLE MOISTURE. MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO CROSS ON TUESDAY. MOST MODELS ARE ON
BOARD WITH FRONTAL TIMING...SAVE THE GFS WHICH SEEMS A BIT TOO
FAST. HAVE CHANCE POPS NW OF PIT/HLG THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...AND
THEN ROLL LIKELY POPS THROUGH WITH FROPA. MOISTURE DOES POOL AHEAD
OF BOUNDARY BUT NOT TO EXTENT OF TODAY...TOPPING OUT AR0UND 1.8
INCH PWAT. SOME MODEST SUPPORT ALOFT WITH RRQ OF H250 JET NOT TOO
FAR TO THE NW...ALTHOUGH MIDLEVEL WAVE ARRIVES POST-FROPA. A
GENERAL HALF TO THREE-QUARTER INCH RAINFALL LOOKS REASONABLE.

AS FOR SEVERE THREAT...THERE CERTAINLY WILL BE ENOUGH FLOW...WITH
40-50 KNOTS AT H500 AND 35-40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN QUESTION THOUGH AS CLOUD COVER FIGURES TO BE ABUNDANT
FOR MOST OF THE DAY. LIKE THE CURRENT SPC IDEA OF A 5 PERCENT
RISK AREA. STORM MOTION PLUS A BIT LESS EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION
WILL ALSO HOPEFULLY KEEP THE FLOOD THREAT AT BAY. GOING FOR A
FAIRLY SMALL DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPERATURE DUE TO THE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...BUT VALUES WILL REMAIN A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL.

SOME SHRA MAY LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS WITH H500
WAVE PASSING THROUGH...OTHERWISE WE SHOULD DRY OUT BY 06Z
WEDNESDAY. DECREASING CLOUDS THEREAFTER...WITH A FAIR BIT OF SUN
ON WEDNESDAY. DESPITE ZONAL FLOW...H500 HEIGHTS WILL BE A BIT
HIGH...SO EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
A SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. WHILE THE 00Z GFS KEEPS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...ECMWF AND
SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE FRONT APPROACHING MORE QUICKLY...AND HAVE
SPED UP TIMING IN FORECAST. WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY
DECENT MODEL TIMING THIS FAR OUT. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDS EXPD INTO THE EVE ALONG WITH SCT SHWRS AS A
DISTURBANCE EXITS. A GRDL DCR TO IFR IS EXPD OVRNGT WITH PLENTY OF
LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE. EXP A GRDL RTN TO VFR BY ERLY MON AFTN.
ISOLD TO SCT AFTN CNVCTN IS PSBL ALSO...BUT COVG EXPD TO BE TOO
LOW FOR A MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 311858
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
258 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STEADY RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TODAY AS HUMID
CONDITIONS REMAIN. SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES FOR LABOR DAY...BUT
OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS SPLAYED ACROSS THE AREA FROM SW TO NE. OVERALL RAIN RATES
HAVE REMAINED AT 0.5" PER HOUR OR LESS...BUT SEVERAL HOURS OF THIS
HAS LED TO SOME RATHER HIGH 6HR TOTALS EARLIER THIS MORNING. HIGHEST
AMOUNTS SINCE MIDNIGHT FOLLOW A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR FROM
MONROE COUNTY IN OH NORTHEAST THROUGH ALLEGHENY COUNTY TO NRN
INDIANA COUNTY IN PA. RAIN TOTALS OF 1" ARE COMMON WITH SEVERAL
LOCATIONS RECEIVING UP TO 2". WHILE THIS NORMALLY WOULDNT PRODUCE
MANY WATER PROBLEMS AFTER NEARLY A WEEK OF DRY WEATHER...POOR
DRAINAGE IN URBAN ENVIRONMENTS MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR 2" OF WATER
TO PROPERLY RUNOFF.

BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN QUICKLY ERODING THROUGH NERN OH AND NW PA AS
THE H5 MOISTURE DRIES UP. NEAR TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
CONVECTION FIRING OVER NCNTRL OH...BUT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF CLOUD
COVER SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FURTHER BUILDUP OF INSTABILITY.
EXPECTING SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALONG OUR WRN FLANK...BUT
THUNDER CHANCES ARE LOOKING INCREASINGLY LESS LIKELY. EVEN
REGARDLESS OF THE ACTUAL STRENGTH OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING...THEY WILL TAP INTO AN AIRMASS WITH PW VALUES
AROUND 2" AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS NEAR 13KFT. SHOWERS OF ANY
FORM TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.

ANOTHER MID-LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY TRACKING TROUGH TN/KY IS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS EVENING...BUT THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY WOULD FAVOR
SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. WHILE THIS AREA
HAD BEEN THE BIGGEST CONCERN COMING INTO THE EVENT...WITH FFG
VALUES AROUND 1.5" IN 3HR...IT HAS SEEN VERY LITTLE RAINFALL
THROUGH THE DAY. BECAUSE OF THE RELATIVELY TAME RAIN RATES MORE OF
A STRATIFORM RAIN EVENT...AND WITH MOST OF TONIGHTS RAIN EXPECTED
TO FALL OVER OUR SERN COUNTIES THAT HAVE HAVE REMAINED RELATIVELY
UNSCATHED...HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON HOISTING ANY FLASH FLOOD
WATCH.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THINK WE START MAINLY DRY MONDAY EVENING IN FLAT FLOW WITH
RELATIVELY LITTLE MOISTURE. MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO CROSS ON TUESDAY. MOST MODELS ARE ON
BOARD WITH FRONTAL TIMING...SAVE THE GFS WHICH SEEMS A BIT TOO
FAST. HAVE CHANCE POPS NW OF PIT/HLG THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...AND
THEN ROLL LIKELY POPS THROUGH WITH FROPA. MOISTURE DOES POOL AHEAD
OF BOUNDARY BUT NOT TO EXTENT OF TODAY...TOPPING OUT AR0UND 1.8
INCH PWAT. SOME MODEST SUPPORT ALOFT WITH RRQ OF H250 JET NOT TOO
FAR TO THE NW...ALTHOUGH MIDLEVEL WAVE ARRIVES POST-FROPA. A
GENERAL HALF TO THREE-QUARTER INCH RAINFALL LOOKS REASONABLE.

AS FOR SEVERE THREAT...THERE CERTAINLY WILL BE ENOUGH FLOW...WITH
40-50 KNOTS AT H500 AND 35-40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN QUESTION THOUGH AS CLOUD COVER FIGURES TO BE ABUNDANT
FOR MOST OF THE DAY. LIKE THE CURRENT SPC IDEA OF A 5 PERCENT
RISK AREA. STORM MOTION PLUS A BIT LESS EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION
WILL ALSO HOPEFULLY KEEP THE FLOOD THREAT AT BAY. GOING FOR A
FAIRLY SMALL DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPERATURE DUE TO THE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...BUT VALUES WILL REMAIN A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL.

SOME SHRA MAY LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS WITH H500
WAVE PASSING THROUGH...OTHERWISE WE SHOULD DRY OUT BY 06Z
WEDNESDAY. DECREASING CLOUDS THEREAFTER...WITH A FAIR BIT OF SUN
ON WEDNESDAY. DESPITE ZONAL FLOW...H500 HEIGHTS WILL BE A BIT
HIGH...SO EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
A SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. WHILE THE 00Z GFS KEEPS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...ECMWF AND
SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE FRONT APPROACHING MORE QUICKLY...AND HAVE
SPED UP TIMING IN FORECAST. WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY
DECENT MODEL TIMING THIS FAR OUT. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BRING MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MON MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON...ESP
AMONG WRN TERMINALS...HOWEVER COVERAGE NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST. A BRIEF LULL IN RAIN ACTIVITY
THIS EVENING...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD MAINLY
THE SRN PORTS BY 00Z MON. CONDITIONS MON MORNING WILL DETERIORATE
TO IFR CIGS OR WORSE BY 08Z MON. EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
THROUGH MIDDAY MON.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 311810
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
210 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STEADY RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TODAY AS HUMID
CONDITIONS REMAIN. SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES FOR LABOR DAY...BUT
OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS SPLAYED ACROSS THE AREA FROM SW TO NE. OVERALL RAIN RATES
HAVE REMAINED AT 0.5" PER HOUR OR LESS...BUT SEVERAL HOURS OF THIS
HAS LED TO SOME RATHER HIGH 6HR TOTALS EARLIER THIS MORNING. HIGHEST
AMOUNTS SINCE MIDNIGHT FOLLOW A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR FROM
MONROE COUNTY IN OH NORTHEAST THROUGH ALLEGHENY COUNTY TO NRN
INDIANA COUNTY IN PA. RAIN TOTALS OF 1" ARE COMMON WITH SEVERAL
LOCATIONS RECEIVING UP TO 2". WHILE THIS NORMALLY WOULDNT PRODUCE
MANY WATER PROBLEMS AFTER NEARLY A WEEK OF DRY WEATHER...POOR
DRAINAGE IN URBAN ENVIRONMENTS MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR 2" OF WATER
TO PROPERLY RUNOFF.

BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN QUICKLY ERODING THROUGH NERN OH AND NW PA AS
THE H5 MOISTURE DRIES UP. NEAR TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
CONVECTION FIRING OVER NCNTRL OH...BUT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF CLOUD
COVER SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FURTHER BUILDUP OF INSTABILITY.
EXPECTING SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALONG OUR WRN FLANK...BUT
THUNDER CHANCES ARE LOOKING INCREASINGLY LESS LIKELY. EVEN
REGARDLESS OF THE ACTUAL STRENGTH OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING...THEY WILL TAP INTO AN AIRMASS WITH PW VALUES
AROUND 2" AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS NEAR 13KFT. SHOWERS OF ANY
FORM TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.

ANOTHER MID-LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY TRACKING TROUGH TN/KY IS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS EVENING...BUT THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY WOULD FAVOR
SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. WHILE THIS AREA
HAD BEEN THE BIGGEST CONCERN COMING INTO THE EVENT...WITH FFG
VALUES AROUND 1.5" IN 3HR...IT HAS SEEN VERY LITTLE RAINFALL
THROUGH THE DAY. BECAUSE OF THE RELATIVELY TAME RAIN RATES MORE OF
A STRATIFORM RAIN EVENT...AND WITH MOST OF TONIGHTS RAIN EXPECTED
TO FALL OVER OUR SERN COUNTIES THAT HAVE HAVE REMAINED RELATIVELY
UNSCATHED...HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON HOISTING ANY FLASH FLOOD
WATCH.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WARM AND HUMID MONDAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT NO REAL
KICKER FOR CONVECTION SO CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED WITH MAINLY
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACTING ON LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER THROUGH WILL BRING LIKELY POPS BACK TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE A DRY AND SEASONAL
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SOMEWHAT LESS HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. WHILE THE 00Z GFS KEEPS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...ECMWF AND
SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE FRONT APPROACHING MORE QUICKLY...AND HAVE
SPED UP TIMING IN FORECAST. WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY
DECENT MODEL TIMING THIS FAR OUT. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BRING MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MON MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON...ESP
AMONG WRN TERMINALS...HOWEVER COVERAGE NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST. A BRIEF LULL IN RAIN ACTIVITY
THIS EVENING...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD MAINLY
THE SRN PORTS BY 00Z MON. CONDITIONS MON MORNING WILL DETERIORATE
TO IFR CIGS OR WORSE BY 08Z MON. EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
THROUGH MIDDAY MON.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 311810
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
210 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STEADY RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TODAY AS HUMID
CONDITIONS REMAIN. SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES FOR LABOR DAY...BUT
OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS SPLAYED ACROSS THE AREA FROM SW TO NE. OVERALL RAIN RATES
HAVE REMAINED AT 0.5" PER HOUR OR LESS...BUT SEVERAL HOURS OF THIS
HAS LED TO SOME RATHER HIGH 6HR TOTALS EARLIER THIS MORNING. HIGHEST
AMOUNTS SINCE MIDNIGHT FOLLOW A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR FROM
MONROE COUNTY IN OH NORTHEAST THROUGH ALLEGHENY COUNTY TO NRN
INDIANA COUNTY IN PA. RAIN TOTALS OF 1" ARE COMMON WITH SEVERAL
LOCATIONS RECEIVING UP TO 2". WHILE THIS NORMALLY WOULDNT PRODUCE
MANY WATER PROBLEMS AFTER NEARLY A WEEK OF DRY WEATHER...POOR
DRAINAGE IN URBAN ENVIRONMENTS MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR 2" OF WATER
TO PROPERLY RUNOFF.

BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN QUICKLY ERODING THROUGH NERN OH AND NW PA AS
THE H5 MOISTURE DRIES UP. NEAR TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
CONVECTION FIRING OVER NCNTRL OH...BUT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF CLOUD
COVER SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FURTHER BUILDUP OF INSTABILITY.
EXPECTING SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALONG OUR WRN FLANK...BUT
THUNDER CHANCES ARE LOOKING INCREASINGLY LESS LIKELY. EVEN
REGARDLESS OF THE ACTUAL STRENGTH OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING...THEY WILL TAP INTO AN AIRMASS WITH PW VALUES
AROUND 2" AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS NEAR 13KFT. SHOWERS OF ANY
FORM TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.

ANOTHER MID-LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY TRACKING TROUGH TN/KY IS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS EVENING...BUT THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY WOULD FAVOR
SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. WHILE THIS AREA
HAD BEEN THE BIGGEST CONCERN COMING INTO THE EVENT...WITH FFG
VALUES AROUND 1.5" IN 3HR...IT HAS SEEN VERY LITTLE RAINFALL
THROUGH THE DAY. BECAUSE OF THE RELATIVELY TAME RAIN RATES MORE OF
A STRATIFORM RAIN EVENT...AND WITH MOST OF TONIGHTS RAIN EXPECTED
TO FALL OVER OUR SERN COUNTIES THAT HAVE HAVE REMAINED RELATIVELY
UNSCATHED...HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON HOISTING ANY FLASH FLOOD
WATCH.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WARM AND HUMID MONDAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT NO REAL
KICKER FOR CONVECTION SO CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED WITH MAINLY
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACTING ON LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER THROUGH WILL BRING LIKELY POPS BACK TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE A DRY AND SEASONAL
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SOMEWHAT LESS HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. WHILE THE 00Z GFS KEEPS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...ECMWF AND
SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE FRONT APPROACHING MORE QUICKLY...AND HAVE
SPED UP TIMING IN FORECAST. WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY
DECENT MODEL TIMING THIS FAR OUT. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BRING MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MON MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON...ESP
AMONG WRN TERMINALS...HOWEVER COVERAGE NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST. A BRIEF LULL IN RAIN ACTIVITY
THIS EVENING...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD MAINLY
THE SRN PORTS BY 00Z MON. CONDITIONS MON MORNING WILL DETERIORATE
TO IFR CIGS OR WORSE BY 08Z MON. EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
THROUGH MIDDAY MON.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 311612
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1212 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STEADY RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TODAY AS HUMID
CONDITIONS REMAIN. SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES FOR LABOR DAY...BUT
OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN SHOWERS SPLAYED ACROSS THE AREA FROM SW TO NE. OVERALL RAIN
RATES HAVE REMAINED AT 0.5" PER HOUR OR LESS...BUT SEVERAL HOURS
OF THIS HAS LED TO SOME RATHER HIGH 6HR TOTALS. HIGHEST AMOUNTS
SINCE MIDNIGHT FOLLOW A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR FROM MONROE
COUNTY IN OH NORTHEAST THROUGH ALLEGHENY COUNTY TO NRN INDIANA
COUNTY IN PA. RAIN TOTALS OF 1" ARE COMMON WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS
RECEIVING UP TO 2". WHILE THIS NORMALLY WOULDNT PRODUCE MANY
WATER PROBLEMS AFTER NEARLY A WEEK OF DRY WEATHER...POOR DRAINAGE
IN URBAN ENVIRONMENTS MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR 2" OF WATER TO
PROPERLY RUNOFF. AS A RESULT...HAVE HAD TO ISSUE A FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR ALLEGHENY COUNTY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN QUICKLY ERODING THROUGH NERN OH AND NW PA AS
THE H5 MOISTURE DRIES UP. NEAR TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
CONVECTION FIRING OVER NCNTRL OH...BUT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF CLOUD
COVER SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FURTHER BUILDUP OF INSTABILITY.
EXPECTING SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALONG OUR WRN FLANK...BUT
THUNDER CHANCES ARE LOOKING INCREASINGLY LESS LIKELY. EVEN
REGARDLESS OF THE ACTUAL STRENGTH OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING...THEY WILL TAP INTO AN AIRMASS WITH PW VALUES
AROUND 2" AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS NEAR 13KFT. SHOWERS OF ANY
FORM TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.

ANOTHER MID-LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY TRACKING TROUGH TN/KY IS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS EVENING...BUT THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY WOULD FAVOR
SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. WHILE THIS AREA
HAD BEEN THE BIGGEST CONCERN COMING INTO THE EVENT...WITH FFG
VALUES AROUND 1.5" IN 3HR...IT HAS SEEN VERY LITTLE RAINFALL
THROUGH THE DAY. BECAUSE OF THE RELATIVELY TAME RAIN RATES MORE OF
A STRATIFORM RAIN EVENT...AND WITH MOST OF TONIGHTS RAIN EXPECTED
TO FALL OVER OUR SERN COUNTIES THAT HAVE HAVE REMAINED RELATIVELY
UNSCATHED...HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON HOISTING ANY FLASH FLOOD
WATCH.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID MONDAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT NO REAL
KICKER FOR CONVECTION SO CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED WITH MAINLY
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACTING ON LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER THROUGH WILL BRING LIKELY POPS BACK TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE A DRY AND SEASONAL
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SOMEWHAT LESS HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. WHILE THE 00Z GFS KEEPS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...ECMWF AND
SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE FRONT APPROACHING MORE QUICKLY...AND HAVE
SPED UP TIMING IN FORECAST. WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY
DECENT MODEL TIMING THIS FAR OUT. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVANCE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING MVFR RESTRICTIONS TO ALL
SITES...AND IFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BEST CHANCE FOR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING...BUT CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW MVFR.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 311612
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1212 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STEADY RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TODAY AS HUMID
CONDITIONS REMAIN. SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES FOR LABOR DAY...BUT
OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN SHOWERS SPLAYED ACROSS THE AREA FROM SW TO NE. OVERALL RAIN
RATES HAVE REMAINED AT 0.5" PER HOUR OR LESS...BUT SEVERAL HOURS
OF THIS HAS LED TO SOME RATHER HIGH 6HR TOTALS. HIGHEST AMOUNTS
SINCE MIDNIGHT FOLLOW A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR FROM MONROE
COUNTY IN OH NORTHEAST THROUGH ALLEGHENY COUNTY TO NRN INDIANA
COUNTY IN PA. RAIN TOTALS OF 1" ARE COMMON WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS
RECEIVING UP TO 2". WHILE THIS NORMALLY WOULDNT PRODUCE MANY
WATER PROBLEMS AFTER NEARLY A WEEK OF DRY WEATHER...POOR DRAINAGE
IN URBAN ENVIRONMENTS MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR 2" OF WATER TO
PROPERLY RUNOFF. AS A RESULT...HAVE HAD TO ISSUE A FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR ALLEGHENY COUNTY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN QUICKLY ERODING THROUGH NERN OH AND NW PA AS
THE H5 MOISTURE DRIES UP. NEAR TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
CONVECTION FIRING OVER NCNTRL OH...BUT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF CLOUD
COVER SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FURTHER BUILDUP OF INSTABILITY.
EXPECTING SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALONG OUR WRN FLANK...BUT
THUNDER CHANCES ARE LOOKING INCREASINGLY LESS LIKELY. EVEN
REGARDLESS OF THE ACTUAL STRENGTH OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING...THEY WILL TAP INTO AN AIRMASS WITH PW VALUES
AROUND 2" AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS NEAR 13KFT. SHOWERS OF ANY
FORM TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.

ANOTHER MID-LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY TRACKING TROUGH TN/KY IS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS EVENING...BUT THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY WOULD FAVOR
SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. WHILE THIS AREA
HAD BEEN THE BIGGEST CONCERN COMING INTO THE EVENT...WITH FFG
VALUES AROUND 1.5" IN 3HR...IT HAS SEEN VERY LITTLE RAINFALL
THROUGH THE DAY. BECAUSE OF THE RELATIVELY TAME RAIN RATES MORE OF
A STRATIFORM RAIN EVENT...AND WITH MOST OF TONIGHTS RAIN EXPECTED
TO FALL OVER OUR SERN COUNTIES THAT HAVE HAVE REMAINED RELATIVELY
UNSCATHED...HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON HOISTING ANY FLASH FLOOD
WATCH.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID MONDAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT NO REAL
KICKER FOR CONVECTION SO CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED WITH MAINLY
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACTING ON LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER THROUGH WILL BRING LIKELY POPS BACK TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE A DRY AND SEASONAL
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SOMEWHAT LESS HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. WHILE THE 00Z GFS KEEPS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...ECMWF AND
SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE FRONT APPROACHING MORE QUICKLY...AND HAVE
SPED UP TIMING IN FORECAST. WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY
DECENT MODEL TIMING THIS FAR OUT. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVANCE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING MVFR RESTRICTIONS TO ALL
SITES...AND IFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BEST CHANCE FOR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING...BUT CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW MVFR.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310928
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
528 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS HUMID CONDITIONS REMAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS TOWARD RADAR TRENDS. NO OTHER
CHANGES AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO EASTERN OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PA WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING...AS SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES NORTHEAST. CAT POPS TODAY AS SYSTEM
TRANSITIONS EAST. EXPECT A GENERAL ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD
DOWN TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE EXITS AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SHEARED OUT WELL AHEAD
OF A MUCH DEEPER UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID MONDAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT NO REAL
KICKER FOR CONVECTION SO CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED WITH MAINLY
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACTING ON LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER THROUGH WILL BRING LIKELY POPS BACK TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE A DRY AND SEASONAL
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SOMEWHAT LESS HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. WHILE THE 00Z GFS KEEPS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...ECMWF AND
SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE FRONT APPROACHING MORE QUICKLY...AND HAVE
SPED UP TIMING IN FORECAST. WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY
DECENT MODEL TIMING THIS FAR OUT. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVANCE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING MVFR RESTRICTIONS TO ALL
SITES...AND IFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BEST CHANCE FOR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING...BUT CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW MVFR.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310928
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
528 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS HUMID CONDITIONS REMAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS TOWARD RADAR TRENDS. NO OTHER
CHANGES AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO EASTERN OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PA WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING...AS SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES NORTHEAST. CAT POPS TODAY AS SYSTEM
TRANSITIONS EAST. EXPECT A GENERAL ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD
DOWN TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE EXITS AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SHEARED OUT WELL AHEAD
OF A MUCH DEEPER UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID MONDAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT NO REAL
KICKER FOR CONVECTION SO CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED WITH MAINLY
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACTING ON LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER THROUGH WILL BRING LIKELY POPS BACK TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE A DRY AND SEASONAL
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SOMEWHAT LESS HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. WHILE THE 00Z GFS KEEPS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...ECMWF AND
SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE FRONT APPROACHING MORE QUICKLY...AND HAVE
SPED UP TIMING IN FORECAST. WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY
DECENT MODEL TIMING THIS FAR OUT. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVANCE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING MVFR RESTRICTIONS TO ALL
SITES...AND IFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BEST CHANCE FOR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING...BUT CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW MVFR.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310701
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
301 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS HUMID CONDITIONS REMAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO EASTERN OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PA WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING...AS SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES NORTHEAST. CAT POPS TODAY AS SYSTEM
TRANSITIONS EAST. EXPECT A GENERAL ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD
DOWN TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE EXITS AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SHEARED OUT WELL AHEAD
OF A MUCH DEEPER UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID MONDAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT NO REAL
KICKER FOR CONVECTION SO CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED WITH MAINLY
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACTING ON LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER THROUGH WILL BRING LIKELY POPS BACK TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE A DRY AND SEASONAL
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SOMEWHAT LESS HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. WHILE THE 00Z GFS KEEPS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...ECMWF AND
SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE FRONT APPROACHING MORE QUICKLY...AND HAVE
SPED UP TIMING IN FORECAST. WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY
DECENT MODEL TIMING THIS FAR OUT. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVANCE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING MVFR RESTRICTIONS TO ALL
SITES...AND IFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BEST CHANCE FOR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING...BUT CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW MVFR.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$












000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310701
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
301 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS HUMID CONDITIONS REMAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO EASTERN OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PA WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING...AS SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES NORTHEAST. CAT POPS TODAY AS SYSTEM
TRANSITIONS EAST. EXPECT A GENERAL ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD
DOWN TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE EXITS AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SHEARED OUT WELL AHEAD
OF A MUCH DEEPER UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID MONDAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT NO REAL
KICKER FOR CONVECTION SO CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED WITH MAINLY
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACTING ON LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER THROUGH WILL BRING LIKELY POPS BACK TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE A DRY AND SEASONAL
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SOMEWHAT LESS HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. WHILE THE 00Z GFS KEEPS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...ECMWF AND
SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE FRONT APPROACHING MORE QUICKLY...AND HAVE
SPED UP TIMING IN FORECAST. WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY
DECENT MODEL TIMING THIS FAR OUT. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVANCE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING MVFR RESTRICTIONS TO ALL
SITES...AND IFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BEST CHANCE FOR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING...BUT CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW MVFR.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$













000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310511
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
111 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH A SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CAT POPS CONTINUED FOR LATER TODAY AS SYSTEM
TRANSITIONS EAST. EXPECT A GENERAL ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD
DOWN TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE EXITS AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SHEARED OUT AND A MUCH
DEEPER UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WARM AND
HUMID MONDAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT NO REAL KICKER FOR
CONVECTION SO CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED WITH MAINLY DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ACTING ON LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT
AND UPPER THROUGH WILL BRING LIKELY POPS BACK TO THE FORECAST
TUESDAY. SOMEWHAT DRYER HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE A DRY AND SEASONAL
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AND SHOULD MANAGE TO DEFLECT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. COLD FRONT COULD
GET CLOSE ENOUGH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING AT LEAST AN ISOLATED
SHOWER TO WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS WL DCR AS A SHRTWV ADVNS ACRS THE RGN OVRNGT INTO
SUN...BRINGING SHWRS AND WDSPRD MVFR/PTCHY IFR CONDS. A FEW TSTMS
ARE PSBL BUT WITH INSTBY/COVG LMTD ONLY INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION
SUN AFTN ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS WL CONT SUN NGT AS A DISTURBANCE EXITS. RSTRNS ARE PSBL
AGAIN WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310511
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
111 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH A SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CAT POPS CONTINUED FOR LATER TODAY AS SYSTEM
TRANSITIONS EAST. EXPECT A GENERAL ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD
DOWN TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE EXITS AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SHEARED OUT AND A MUCH
DEEPER UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WARM AND
HUMID MONDAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT NO REAL KICKER FOR
CONVECTION SO CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED WITH MAINLY DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ACTING ON LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT
AND UPPER THROUGH WILL BRING LIKELY POPS BACK TO THE FORECAST
TUESDAY. SOMEWHAT DRYER HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE A DRY AND SEASONAL
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AND SHOULD MANAGE TO DEFLECT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. COLD FRONT COULD
GET CLOSE ENOUGH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING AT LEAST AN ISOLATED
SHOWER TO WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS WL DCR AS A SHRTWV ADVNS ACRS THE RGN OVRNGT INTO
SUN...BRINGING SHWRS AND WDSPRD MVFR/PTCHY IFR CONDS. A FEW TSTMS
ARE PSBL BUT WITH INSTBY/COVG LMTD ONLY INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION
SUN AFTN ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS WL CONT SUN NGT AS A DISTURBANCE EXITS. RSTRNS ARE PSBL
AGAIN WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310122
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
922 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN INCREASING AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
930PM UPDATE...MAINLY MADE TWEAKS TO GRIDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. NO REAL CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING. INGREDIENTS FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL APPEAR LIKELY TO SET UP STARTING AROUND
09Z IN THE WESTERN CWA...AND THEN SPREADING NORTH AND EAST FROM
THERE. THESE INCLUDE 2+ INCH PWAT VALUES...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
GREATER THAN 12K FEET...AND SUPPORT FOR VERTICAL MOTION FROM RRQ
OF UPPER JET PLUS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE RIPPLES. CAN SEE THE RAIN
TRAIN ALREADY STARTING TO SET UP FROM KCMH THROUGH KCVG AND
KSDF...WITH HEAVIER RAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST IN TN. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE CWA ONCE TRENDS
BECOME MORE CLEAR.

530 PM UPDATE...ONLY CHANGE WAS TO SLIGHTLY EXPAND THE AREA OF
SLIGHT POPS SOUTHWARD TO ENCOMPASS THE METRO PITTSBURGH AREA. HAVE
SEEN A COUPLE OF SHRA POP NEARBY...AND PIT DID RECEIVE A TRACE OF
RAINFALL. JUST A BIT TOO DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY. THIS WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM LATER TONIGHT WHEN A 2+ INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AIRMASS ARRIVES. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT
THE INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL MAY COME TOGETHER LATER TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THE NEXT 9-12 HOURS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS NEARLY A HANDFUL OF UPPER WAVES AND
POTENTIAL VORTICITY FEATURES OF CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.
THE DEEPEST OF THESE IS DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MINNESOTA AT
THE MOMENT...WITH THE LEADING FEATURE NEARING LAKE MICHIGAN...AND
YET ANOTHER UPPER PV ANOMALY SCREAMING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE MOMENT. ALL OF THESE WILL LIKELY PLAY
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE
DAYTIME ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BEFORE WE GET THERE...SOME VERY WARM
AND STICKY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

A DECENT LAYER OF WARM AIR IS EVIDENT IN THE 6-8 KFT LAYER ON
RUC/NAM SOUNDINGS...AND THIS HAS WORKED TO RETARD THE DEVELOPMENT
OF CUMULUS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. WHILE THIS IS
SET TO ERODE...IT SEEMS LIKELY TO BE INCOMING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST THAT WILL TURN SKIES PARTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...RATHER
THAN WIDESPREAD CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OUTSIDE THE RIDGES. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AND AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AND DEEPER MOISTURE POISED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST ADVANCES NORTHEASTWARD...IT SEEMS THAT DEWPOINT VALUES
IN THE 70S MAY BECOME MORE COMMON OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THIS
WILL LIKELY COINCIDE WITH THE EROSION OF THE WARM LAYER
ALOFT...AND LIKELY WITH LARGE SCALE DESTABILIZATION OF THE
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE TRIFECTA OF UPPER FEATURES SET TO AFFECT
THE AREA.

AS THE FIRST WAVE SHEARS OUT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...THE
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD OUR NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS LOOKS TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN AREAS ADVANCING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. IT IS UP THIS CORRIDOR THAT THE
NAM/SREF/GFS/LOCAL WRF ALL FOCUS PWAT VALUES OF 2 INCHES OR
GREATER...THEN MANAGE TO PERSIST THEM OVER THIS AXIS FOR 12-18
HOURS AS THE FIRST WAVE SHEARS OFF TO THE EAST AND EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE MOISTURE AXIS SEEMS LIKELY TO STALL. WITH THE
MOISTURE AXIS STILL IN PLACE...AND FRONTAL ZONE LIKELY STALLED
SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAIN IS VERY REAL. NOT ONLY DO A SUCCESSION OF WAVES
SEEM LIKELY TO TRACK DOWN THIS FRONT AFTER IT BECOMES STALLED AS A
COUPLE OF WAVES MOVE UP FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE THE
WAVE CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA KICKS THE FRONT EASTWARD...BUT WE
REMAIN LOCATED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER JET STREAK...WITH MODEL TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS
SUGGESTING STRONG LIFT IN THE 0-10C LAYER. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF
COLLISION AND COALESCENCE PROCESSES...AND COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...AND A STRONG MOISTURE
STREAM WITH AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS BEING SERIOUSLY CONSIDERED.

WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RATHER SLOW TO FALL OVERNIGHT...AND ALSO SLOW TO RISE TOMORROW.
EXPECTED THE DIURNAL SPREAD TO BE LITTLE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK BOUNDARY STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA SUN NIGHT AS THE BERMUDA
HIGH SLOWS ITS PROGRESSION. MULTIPLE WAVES ARE PROGGED TO TRAVERSE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND THE LAST SUCH WAVE WILL ENTER FROM THE SW
NEAR 00Z MON. NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE PULLED THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS
WAVE BACK...DRAWING MORE MOISTURE IN THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
WHILE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS DRAWN EASTWARD OVER COASTAL NEW
ENGLAND...PWAT VALUES FROM THE 12Z NAM/SREF HOVER NEAR 1.75"
THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS IN OUR
SE ZONES SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING AND HAVE INCLUDED HEAVY RAIN
MENTION. THIS HAPPENS TO BE OUR WETTEST AREA WITH 3HR FFG UNDER
2"...BUT ANY FLASH FLOODING ISSUES THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING COULD
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON ANTECEDENT RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT/SUN. WILL HIGHLIGHT HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IN HWO FOR NOW.

MONDAY A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH LIMITED COVERAGE DUE TO LACK OF ANY REAL
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...WILL KEEP SLGHT AND CHC POPS. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TUES. MODELS HAVE REMAINED
LARGELY CONSISTENT IN TIMING AND STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT...SO HAVE NO
REASON TO DEVIATE FROM LIKELIES AT THIS TIME.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY...AND
SHOULD MANAGE TO DEFLECT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
TO THE NORTH UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. COLD FRONT COULD GET CLOSE
ENOUGH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO
WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS WL DCR AS A SHRTWV ADVNS ACRS THE RGN OVRNGT INTO
SUN...BRINGING SHWRS AND WDSPRD MVFR/PTCHY IFR CONDS. A FEW TSTMS
ARE PSBL BUT WITH INSTBY/COVG LMTD ONLY INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION
SUN AFTN ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS WL CONT SUN NGT INTO MON MRNG AS A DISTURBANCE EXITS.
RSTRNS ARE PSBL AGAIN WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310122
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
922 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN INCREASING AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
930PM UPDATE...MAINLY MADE TWEAKS TO GRIDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. NO REAL CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING. INGREDIENTS FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL APPEAR LIKELY TO SET UP STARTING AROUND
09Z IN THE WESTERN CWA...AND THEN SPREADING NORTH AND EAST FROM
THERE. THESE INCLUDE 2+ INCH PWAT VALUES...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
GREATER THAN 12K FEET...AND SUPPORT FOR VERTICAL MOTION FROM RRQ
OF UPPER JET PLUS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE RIPPLES. CAN SEE THE RAIN
TRAIN ALREADY STARTING TO SET UP FROM KCMH THROUGH KCVG AND
KSDF...WITH HEAVIER RAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST IN TN. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE CWA ONCE TRENDS
BECOME MORE CLEAR.

530 PM UPDATE...ONLY CHANGE WAS TO SLIGHTLY EXPAND THE AREA OF
SLIGHT POPS SOUTHWARD TO ENCOMPASS THE METRO PITTSBURGH AREA. HAVE
SEEN A COUPLE OF SHRA POP NEARBY...AND PIT DID RECEIVE A TRACE OF
RAINFALL. JUST A BIT TOO DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY. THIS WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM LATER TONIGHT WHEN A 2+ INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AIRMASS ARRIVES. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT
THE INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL MAY COME TOGETHER LATER TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THE NEXT 9-12 HOURS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS NEARLY A HANDFUL OF UPPER WAVES AND
POTENTIAL VORTICITY FEATURES OF CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.
THE DEEPEST OF THESE IS DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MINNESOTA AT
THE MOMENT...WITH THE LEADING FEATURE NEARING LAKE MICHIGAN...AND
YET ANOTHER UPPER PV ANOMALY SCREAMING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE MOMENT. ALL OF THESE WILL LIKELY PLAY
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE
DAYTIME ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BEFORE WE GET THERE...SOME VERY WARM
AND STICKY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

A DECENT LAYER OF WARM AIR IS EVIDENT IN THE 6-8 KFT LAYER ON
RUC/NAM SOUNDINGS...AND THIS HAS WORKED TO RETARD THE DEVELOPMENT
OF CUMULUS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. WHILE THIS IS
SET TO ERODE...IT SEEMS LIKELY TO BE INCOMING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST THAT WILL TURN SKIES PARTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...RATHER
THAN WIDESPREAD CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OUTSIDE THE RIDGES. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AND AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AND DEEPER MOISTURE POISED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST ADVANCES NORTHEASTWARD...IT SEEMS THAT DEWPOINT VALUES
IN THE 70S MAY BECOME MORE COMMON OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THIS
WILL LIKELY COINCIDE WITH THE EROSION OF THE WARM LAYER
ALOFT...AND LIKELY WITH LARGE SCALE DESTABILIZATION OF THE
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE TRIFECTA OF UPPER FEATURES SET TO AFFECT
THE AREA.

AS THE FIRST WAVE SHEARS OUT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...THE
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD OUR NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS LOOKS TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN AREAS ADVANCING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. IT IS UP THIS CORRIDOR THAT THE
NAM/SREF/GFS/LOCAL WRF ALL FOCUS PWAT VALUES OF 2 INCHES OR
GREATER...THEN MANAGE TO PERSIST THEM OVER THIS AXIS FOR 12-18
HOURS AS THE FIRST WAVE SHEARS OFF TO THE EAST AND EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE MOISTURE AXIS SEEMS LIKELY TO STALL. WITH THE
MOISTURE AXIS STILL IN PLACE...AND FRONTAL ZONE LIKELY STALLED
SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAIN IS VERY REAL. NOT ONLY DO A SUCCESSION OF WAVES
SEEM LIKELY TO TRACK DOWN THIS FRONT AFTER IT BECOMES STALLED AS A
COUPLE OF WAVES MOVE UP FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE THE
WAVE CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA KICKS THE FRONT EASTWARD...BUT WE
REMAIN LOCATED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER JET STREAK...WITH MODEL TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS
SUGGESTING STRONG LIFT IN THE 0-10C LAYER. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF
COLLISION AND COALESCENCE PROCESSES...AND COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...AND A STRONG MOISTURE
STREAM WITH AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS BEING SERIOUSLY CONSIDERED.

WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RATHER SLOW TO FALL OVERNIGHT...AND ALSO SLOW TO RISE TOMORROW.
EXPECTED THE DIURNAL SPREAD TO BE LITTLE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK BOUNDARY STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA SUN NIGHT AS THE BERMUDA
HIGH SLOWS ITS PROGRESSION. MULTIPLE WAVES ARE PROGGED TO TRAVERSE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND THE LAST SUCH WAVE WILL ENTER FROM THE SW
NEAR 00Z MON. NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE PULLED THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS
WAVE BACK...DRAWING MORE MOISTURE IN THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
WHILE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS DRAWN EASTWARD OVER COASTAL NEW
ENGLAND...PWAT VALUES FROM THE 12Z NAM/SREF HOVER NEAR 1.75"
THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS IN OUR
SE ZONES SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING AND HAVE INCLUDED HEAVY RAIN
MENTION. THIS HAPPENS TO BE OUR WETTEST AREA WITH 3HR FFG UNDER
2"...BUT ANY FLASH FLOODING ISSUES THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING COULD
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON ANTECEDENT RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT/SUN. WILL HIGHLIGHT HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IN HWO FOR NOW.

MONDAY A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH LIMITED COVERAGE DUE TO LACK OF ANY REAL
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...WILL KEEP SLGHT AND CHC POPS. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TUES. MODELS HAVE REMAINED
LARGELY CONSISTENT IN TIMING AND STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT...SO HAVE NO
REASON TO DEVIATE FROM LIKELIES AT THIS TIME.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY...AND
SHOULD MANAGE TO DEFLECT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
TO THE NORTH UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. COLD FRONT COULD GET CLOSE
ENOUGH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO
WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS WL DCR AS A SHRTWV ADVNS ACRS THE RGN OVRNGT INTO
SUN...BRINGING SHWRS AND WDSPRD MVFR/PTCHY IFR CONDS. A FEW TSTMS
ARE PSBL BUT WITH INSTBY/COVG LMTD ONLY INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION
SUN AFTN ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS WL CONT SUN NGT INTO MON MRNG AS A DISTURBANCE EXITS.
RSTRNS ARE PSBL AGAIN WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 302137
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
536 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN INCREASING AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
530 PM UPDATE...ONLY CHANGE WAS TO SLIGHTLY EXPAND THE AREA OF
SLIGHT POPS SOUTHWARD TO ENCOMPASS THE METRO PITTSBURGH AREA. HAVE
SEEN A COUPLE OF SHRA POP NEARBY...AND PIT DID RECEIVE A TRACE OF
RAINFALL. JUST A BIT TOO DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY. THIS WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM LATER TONIGHT WHEN A 2+ INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AIRMASS ARRIVES. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT
THE INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL MAY COME TOGETHER LATER TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THE NEXT 9-12 HOURS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS NEARLY A HANDFUL OF UPPER WAVES AND
POTENTIAL VORTICITY FEATURES OF CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.
THE DEEPEST OF THESE IS DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MINNESOTA AT
THE MOMENT...WITH THE LEADING FEATURE NEARING LAKE MICHIGAN...AND
YET ANOTHER UPPER PV ANOMALY SCREAMING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE MOMENT. ALL OF THESE WILL LIKELY PLAY
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE
DAYTIME ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BEFORE WE GET THERE...SOME VERY WARM
AND STICKY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

A DECENT LAYER OF WARM AIR IS EVIDENT IN THE 6-8 KFT LAYER ON
RUC/NAM SOUNDINGS...AND THIS HAS WORKED TO RETARD THE DEVELOPMENT
OF CUMULUS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. WHILE THIS IS
SET TO ERODE...IT SEEMS LIKELY TO BE INCOMING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST THAT WILL TURN SKIES PARTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...RATHER
THAN WIDESPREAD CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OUTSIDE THE RIDGES. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AND AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AND DEEPER MOISTURE POISED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST ADVANCES NORTHEASTWARD...IT SEEMS THAT DEWPOINT VALUES
IN THE 70S MAY BECOME MORE COMMON OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THIS
WILL LIKELY COINCIDE WITH THE EROSION OF THE WARM LAYER
ALOFT...AND LIKELY WITH LARGE SCALE DESTABILIZATION OF THE
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE TRIFECTA OF UPPER FEATURES SET TO AFFECT
THE AREA.

AS THE FIRST WAVE SHEARS OUT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...THE
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD OUR NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS LOOKS TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN AREAS ADVANCING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. IT IS UP THIS CORRIDOR THAT THE
NAM/SREF/GFS/LOCAL WRF ALL FOCUS PWAT VALUES OF 2 INCHES OR
GREATER...THEN MANAGE TO PERSIST THEM OVER THIS AXIS FOR 12-18
HOURS AS THE FIRST WAVE SHEARS OFF TO THE EAST AND EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE MOISTURE AXIS SEEMS LIKELY TO STALL. WITH THE
MOISTURE AXIS STILL IN PLACE...AND FRONTAL ZONE LIKELY STALLED
SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAIN IS VERY REAL. NOT ONLY DO A SUCCESSION OF WAVES
SEEM LIKELY TO TRACK DOWN THIS FRONT AFTER IT BECOMES STALLED AS A
COUPLE OF WAVES MOVE UP FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE THE
WAVE CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA KICKS THE FRONT EASTWARD...BUT WE
REMAIN LOCATED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER JET STREAK...WITH MODEL TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS
SUGGESTING STRONG LIFT IN THE 0-10C LAYER. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF
COLLISION AND COALESCENCE PROCESSES...AND COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...AND A STRONG MOISTURE
STREAM WITH AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS BEING SERIOUSLY CONSIDERED.

WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RATHER SLOW TO FALL OVERNIGHT...AND ALSO SLOW TO RISE TOMORROW.
EXPECTED THE DIURNAL SPREAD TO BE LITTLE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK BOUNDARY STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA SUN NIGHT AS THE BERMUDA
HIGH SLOWS ITS PROGRESSION. MULTIPLE WAVES ARE PROGGED TO TRAVERSE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND THE LAST SUCH WAVE WILL ENTER FROM THE SW
NEAR 00Z MON. NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE PULLED THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS
WAVE BACK...DRAWING MORE MOISTURE IN THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
WHILE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS DRAWN EASTWARD OVER COASTAL NEW
ENGLAND...PWAT VALUES FROM THE 12Z NAM/SREF HOVER NEAR 1.75"
THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS IN OUR
SE ZONES SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING AND HAVE INCLUDED HEAVY RAIN
MENTION. THIS HAPPENS TO BE OUR WETTEST AREA WITH 3HR FFG UNDER
2"...BUT ANY FLASH FLOODING ISSUES THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING COULD
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON ANTECEDENT RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT/SUN. WILL HIGHLIGHT HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IN HWO FOR NOW.

MONDAY A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH LIMITED COVERAGE DUE TO LACK OF ANY REAL
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...WILL KEEP SLGHT AND CHC POPS. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TUES. MODELS HAVE REMAINED
LARGELY CONSISTENT IN TIMING AND STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT...SO HAVE NO
REASON TO DEVIATE FROM LIKELIES AT THIS TIME.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY...AND
SHOULD MANAGE TO DEFLECT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
TO THE NORTH UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. COLD FRONT COULD GET CLOSE
ENOUGH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO
WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS WL DCR AS A SHRTWV ADVNS ACRS THE RGN OVRNGT INTO
SUN...BRINGING SHWRS AND WDSPRD MVFR/PTCHY IFR CONDS. A FEW TSTMS
ARE PSBL BUT WITH INSTBY/COVG LMTD ONLY INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION
SUN AFTN ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS WL CONT SUN NGT INTO MON MRNG AS A DISTURBANCE EXITS.
RSTRNS ARE PSBL AGAIN WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 302137
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
536 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN INCREASING AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
530 PM UPDATE...ONLY CHANGE WAS TO SLIGHTLY EXPAND THE AREA OF
SLIGHT POPS SOUTHWARD TO ENCOMPASS THE METRO PITTSBURGH AREA. HAVE
SEEN A COUPLE OF SHRA POP NEARBY...AND PIT DID RECEIVE A TRACE OF
RAINFALL. JUST A BIT TOO DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY. THIS WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM LATER TONIGHT WHEN A 2+ INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AIRMASS ARRIVES. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT
THE INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL MAY COME TOGETHER LATER TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THE NEXT 9-12 HOURS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS NEARLY A HANDFUL OF UPPER WAVES AND
POTENTIAL VORTICITY FEATURES OF CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.
THE DEEPEST OF THESE IS DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MINNESOTA AT
THE MOMENT...WITH THE LEADING FEATURE NEARING LAKE MICHIGAN...AND
YET ANOTHER UPPER PV ANOMALY SCREAMING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE MOMENT. ALL OF THESE WILL LIKELY PLAY
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE
DAYTIME ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BEFORE WE GET THERE...SOME VERY WARM
AND STICKY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

A DECENT LAYER OF WARM AIR IS EVIDENT IN THE 6-8 KFT LAYER ON
RUC/NAM SOUNDINGS...AND THIS HAS WORKED TO RETARD THE DEVELOPMENT
OF CUMULUS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. WHILE THIS IS
SET TO ERODE...IT SEEMS LIKELY TO BE INCOMING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST THAT WILL TURN SKIES PARTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...RATHER
THAN WIDESPREAD CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OUTSIDE THE RIDGES. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AND AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AND DEEPER MOISTURE POISED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST ADVANCES NORTHEASTWARD...IT SEEMS THAT DEWPOINT VALUES
IN THE 70S MAY BECOME MORE COMMON OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THIS
WILL LIKELY COINCIDE WITH THE EROSION OF THE WARM LAYER
ALOFT...AND LIKELY WITH LARGE SCALE DESTABILIZATION OF THE
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE TRIFECTA OF UPPER FEATURES SET TO AFFECT
THE AREA.

AS THE FIRST WAVE SHEARS OUT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...THE
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD OUR NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS LOOKS TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN AREAS ADVANCING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. IT IS UP THIS CORRIDOR THAT THE
NAM/SREF/GFS/LOCAL WRF ALL FOCUS PWAT VALUES OF 2 INCHES OR
GREATER...THEN MANAGE TO PERSIST THEM OVER THIS AXIS FOR 12-18
HOURS AS THE FIRST WAVE SHEARS OFF TO THE EAST AND EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE MOISTURE AXIS SEEMS LIKELY TO STALL. WITH THE
MOISTURE AXIS STILL IN PLACE...AND FRONTAL ZONE LIKELY STALLED
SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAIN IS VERY REAL. NOT ONLY DO A SUCCESSION OF WAVES
SEEM LIKELY TO TRACK DOWN THIS FRONT AFTER IT BECOMES STALLED AS A
COUPLE OF WAVES MOVE UP FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE THE
WAVE CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA KICKS THE FRONT EASTWARD...BUT WE
REMAIN LOCATED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER JET STREAK...WITH MODEL TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS
SUGGESTING STRONG LIFT IN THE 0-10C LAYER. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF
COLLISION AND COALESCENCE PROCESSES...AND COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...AND A STRONG MOISTURE
STREAM WITH AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS BEING SERIOUSLY CONSIDERED.

WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RATHER SLOW TO FALL OVERNIGHT...AND ALSO SLOW TO RISE TOMORROW.
EXPECTED THE DIURNAL SPREAD TO BE LITTLE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK BOUNDARY STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA SUN NIGHT AS THE BERMUDA
HIGH SLOWS ITS PROGRESSION. MULTIPLE WAVES ARE PROGGED TO TRAVERSE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND THE LAST SUCH WAVE WILL ENTER FROM THE SW
NEAR 00Z MON. NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE PULLED THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS
WAVE BACK...DRAWING MORE MOISTURE IN THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
WHILE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS DRAWN EASTWARD OVER COASTAL NEW
ENGLAND...PWAT VALUES FROM THE 12Z NAM/SREF HOVER NEAR 1.75"
THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS IN OUR
SE ZONES SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING AND HAVE INCLUDED HEAVY RAIN
MENTION. THIS HAPPENS TO BE OUR WETTEST AREA WITH 3HR FFG UNDER
2"...BUT ANY FLASH FLOODING ISSUES THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING COULD
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON ANTECEDENT RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT/SUN. WILL HIGHLIGHT HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IN HWO FOR NOW.

MONDAY A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH LIMITED COVERAGE DUE TO LACK OF ANY REAL
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...WILL KEEP SLGHT AND CHC POPS. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TUES. MODELS HAVE REMAINED
LARGELY CONSISTENT IN TIMING AND STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT...SO HAVE NO
REASON TO DEVIATE FROM LIKELIES AT THIS TIME.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY...AND
SHOULD MANAGE TO DEFLECT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
TO THE NORTH UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. COLD FRONT COULD GET CLOSE
ENOUGH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO
WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS WL DCR AS A SHRTWV ADVNS ACRS THE RGN OVRNGT INTO
SUN...BRINGING SHWRS AND WDSPRD MVFR/PTCHY IFR CONDS. A FEW TSTMS
ARE PSBL BUT WITH INSTBY/COVG LMTD ONLY INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION
SUN AFTN ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS WL CONT SUN NGT INTO MON MRNG AS A DISTURBANCE EXITS.
RSTRNS ARE PSBL AGAIN WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








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