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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 261436
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1036 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH THE RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER...WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY. COLDER WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE MRNG UPDATE FEATURED ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TRENDS AND TO BUMP HIGH
TEMPS UP GIVEN THE LACK OF CLD COVER BEHIND THE EXITING DISTURBANCE.

SHRTWV RIDGE WL SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT NXT
SHRTWV MOVG ACRS THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO SPAWN SOME SCT
TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVE. STORMS OVR WRN OH AND IN ARE
EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO AN MCS...TRACK OF WHICH MAY CLIP AREAS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 TNGT. RISK OF SVR WITH THAT...AND FOR THE
RMNDR OF THE AREA APPEARS SMALL FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN OF THE FORECAST EFFORT IS OF SUNDAY AS
DEEPENING SHRTWV IS PROJECTED ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND TWD THE
UPR OH REGION. SEASONALLY STRONG JET STREAK WL INCRS THE MID AND
UPR WIND OVR BACKED SFC FLOW RESULTING IN SEVERE SPPRTG SPEED AND
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. BNDRY POSITIONING AND INSTABILITY RMN THE
LIMITING FACTORS FOR THE UPR OH REGION GIVEN CLDS AND SHWR
DVLPMNT...BUT FALLING MID LVL TEMPS WITH THE ADVN OF THE MID LVL
THERMAL TROF ARE EXPECTED OFFSET...ESPECIALLY LTR IN THE DAY.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE ENTIRE ARE HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED FOR A
FULL ARRAY SEVERE RISK...BETTER CHC FOR WHICH IS PROJECTED ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A ZANESVILLE TO MORGANTOWN LINE WHERE THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS DRAWN MODERATE PROBABILITIES IN VCNTY OF THE
EXPECTED FRONTAL POSITION.

PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEMS CDFNT ON SUNDAY NGT WL END THE SVR THREAT
AND BGN THE DOWNWARD TEMP TREND. MORE SHWRS ARE LIKELY ON MONDAY
AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPR TROF DVLPS OVR THE ERN CONUS...WITH
REINFORCING SFC FRONT SLATED FOR A MIDDAY PASSAGE ACRS THE UPR OH REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND COMFORTABLE
MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS EXPD TDA WITH A MIX OF DIURNAL CU AND AC. A WK SHRTWV
APCHS THIS EVE...BUT WITH PCPN COVG IN QN ONLY INCLUDED VCSH IN
THE TAFS. AN MCS WL LIKELY AFFECT PORTS S OF PIT LT TNGT INTO ERLY
SUN MRNG. WITH TIMING/LOCATION UNCERTAINTIES MAINTAINED A VCTS
MENTION IN THE TAF ATTM WITH MVFR CONDS.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ADVNG LOW PRES WL LIKELY BRING TSTM RSTRNS SUN...WITH LINGERING
RSTRNS INTO MON AS IT/S ASSOCIATED CDFNT CROSSES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 261436
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1036 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH THE RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER...WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY. COLDER WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE MRNG UPDATE FEATURED ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TRENDS AND TO BUMP HIGH
TEMPS UP GIVEN THE LACK OF CLD COVER BEHIND THE EXITING DISTURBANCE.

SHRTWV RIDGE WL SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT NXT
SHRTWV MOVG ACRS THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO SPAWN SOME SCT
TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVE. STORMS OVR WRN OH AND IN ARE
EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO AN MCS...TRACK OF WHICH MAY CLIP AREAS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 TNGT. RISK OF SVR WITH THAT...AND FOR THE
RMNDR OF THE AREA APPEARS SMALL FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN OF THE FORECAST EFFORT IS OF SUNDAY AS
DEEPENING SHRTWV IS PROJECTED ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND TWD THE
UPR OH REGION. SEASONALLY STRONG JET STREAK WL INCRS THE MID AND
UPR WIND OVR BACKED SFC FLOW RESULTING IN SEVERE SPPRTG SPEED AND
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. BNDRY POSITIONING AND INSTABILITY RMN THE
LIMITING FACTORS FOR THE UPR OH REGION GIVEN CLDS AND SHWR
DVLPMNT...BUT FALLING MID LVL TEMPS WITH THE ADVN OF THE MID LVL
THERMAL TROF ARE EXPECTED OFFSET...ESPECIALLY LTR IN THE DAY.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE ENTIRE ARE HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED FOR A
FULL ARRAY SEVERE RISK...BETTER CHC FOR WHICH IS PROJECTED ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A ZANESVILLE TO MORGANTOWN LINE WHERE THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS DRAWN MODERATE PROBABILITIES IN VCNTY OF THE
EXPECTED FRONTAL POSITION.

PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEMS CDFNT ON SUNDAY NGT WL END THE SVR THREAT
AND BGN THE DOWNWARD TEMP TREND. MORE SHWRS ARE LIKELY ON MONDAY
AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPR TROF DVLPS OVR THE ERN CONUS...WITH
REINFORCING SFC FRONT SLATED FOR A MIDDAY PASSAGE ACRS THE UPR OH REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND COMFORTABLE
MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS EXPD TDA WITH A MIX OF DIURNAL CU AND AC. A WK SHRTWV
APCHS THIS EVE...BUT WITH PCPN COVG IN QN ONLY INCLUDED VCSH IN
THE TAFS. AN MCS WL LIKELY AFFECT PORTS S OF PIT LT TNGT INTO ERLY
SUN MRNG. WITH TIMING/LOCATION UNCERTAINTIES MAINTAINED A VCTS
MENTION IN THE TAF ATTM WITH MVFR CONDS.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ADVNG LOW PRES WL LIKELY BRING TSTM RSTRNS SUN...WITH LINGERING
RSTRNS INTO MON AS IT/S ASSOCIATED CDFNT CROSSES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 261150
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
750 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND. THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY
WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR CHGS TO SKY COVER FOR THE ERLY MRNG UPDT BASED ON STLT/NR
TERM MDL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISC...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RUSH EASTWARD THIS
MORNING...ALLOWING FOR A REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER. UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS WILL RESPOND WITH SOME RIDGING ALOFT. WAA WILL ENSUE WITH
THE RISING HEIGHTS AND A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH ACTIVITY...IF ANY TODAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT RISES WILL STALL AND LEAVE THE AREA
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL WAVES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION...AS WILL THE REAL UNSTABLE AIR. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY... CONNECTED TO A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
MIDWEST...WILL STRETCH ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS AFTERNOON. ITS
POSSIBLE THAT A SHOWER OR STORM COULD DEVELOP LATE TODAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A PRETTY WELL
CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WITH UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR VALUES.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
WAVE RUSHES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES EASTWARD INTO IL AND ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. MODELS ARE
SHOWING A NOCTURNAL MCS DEVELOPING NEAR THE SURFACE LOW TONIGHT AND
HEADING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE. SPOKES OF
ENERGY WILL BREAK AWAY FROM THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AND DRIFT EASTWARD
OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO
DEVELOP WITH THESE WAVES...BUT AGAIN...THEY WILL BE MOVING INTO
MORE STABLE AIR. SHEAR VALUES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT SO IF ACTIVITY
GETS ROLLING IT SHOULD BE SUSTAINABLE. I WOULD THINK THAT THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY WOULD BE WEST WITH THE MAIN MCS.

SUNDAY SURE LOOKS LIKE THE DAY THAT WILL BE MOST WORRISOME.
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE ITS DESTABILIZATION AS THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES INTO WESTERN OHIO. A VERY BUOYANT ATMOSPHERE WITH STRONG
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND SHEAR WILL PROVIDE A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA SEEMS TO BE PARTICULARLY IN
THE BULLS-EYE. IF MODELS ARE CORRECT...ANOTHER MCS SHOULD QUICKLY
DEVELOP OVER WESTERN OHIO SUNDAY MORNING AND MOVE EASTWARD WITH
THE SURFACE LOW. WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE IF THE MCS
DEVELOPS. ADDITIONALLY...LATEST FORECAST HODOGRAPHS ARE SHOWING
HELICITY VALUES REACHING NEAR 500 IN THE SOUTH. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE AS PWATS REACH CLOSE TO 2 INCHES. AGAIN...SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED...WITH THE HIGHEST
THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTH.

COMPLEX WILL EXIT LATE SUNDAY AFT/EARLY EVENING AND THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BEGIN TO CALM DOWN. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
CROSS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STORM.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT...SPINNING AROUND BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CROSSES MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE RISK OF A STORM AS THE BOUNDARY SWINGS THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT AS ENTIRE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES
EASTWARD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER
WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS EXPD TDA WITH A MIX OF DIURNAL CU AND AC. A WK SHRTWV
APCHS THIS EVE...BUT WITH LMTD INSTBY AND MOISTURE ONLY INCLUDED
VCSH IN THE TAFS. AN MCS WL LIKELY AFFECT PORTS S OF PIT LT TNGT
INTO ERLY SUN MRNG. WITH TIMING/LOCATION UNCERTAINTIES MAINTAINED
A VCTS MENTION IN THE TAF ATTM WITH MVFR CONDS.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ADVNG LOW PRES WL LIKELY BRING TSTM RSTRNS SUN...WITH LINGERING
RSTRNS INTO MON AS IT/S ASSOCIATED CDFNT CROSSES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 261150
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
750 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND. THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY
WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR CHGS TO SKY COVER FOR THE ERLY MRNG UPDT BASED ON STLT/NR
TERM MDL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISC...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RUSH EASTWARD THIS
MORNING...ALLOWING FOR A REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER. UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS WILL RESPOND WITH SOME RIDGING ALOFT. WAA WILL ENSUE WITH
THE RISING HEIGHTS AND A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH ACTIVITY...IF ANY TODAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT RISES WILL STALL AND LEAVE THE AREA
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL WAVES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION...AS WILL THE REAL UNSTABLE AIR. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY... CONNECTED TO A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
MIDWEST...WILL STRETCH ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS AFTERNOON. ITS
POSSIBLE THAT A SHOWER OR STORM COULD DEVELOP LATE TODAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A PRETTY WELL
CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WITH UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR VALUES.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
WAVE RUSHES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES EASTWARD INTO IL AND ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. MODELS ARE
SHOWING A NOCTURNAL MCS DEVELOPING NEAR THE SURFACE LOW TONIGHT AND
HEADING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE. SPOKES OF
ENERGY WILL BREAK AWAY FROM THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AND DRIFT EASTWARD
OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO
DEVELOP WITH THESE WAVES...BUT AGAIN...THEY WILL BE MOVING INTO
MORE STABLE AIR. SHEAR VALUES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT SO IF ACTIVITY
GETS ROLLING IT SHOULD BE SUSTAINABLE. I WOULD THINK THAT THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY WOULD BE WEST WITH THE MAIN MCS.

SUNDAY SURE LOOKS LIKE THE DAY THAT WILL BE MOST WORRISOME.
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE ITS DESTABILIZATION AS THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES INTO WESTERN OHIO. A VERY BUOYANT ATMOSPHERE WITH STRONG
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND SHEAR WILL PROVIDE A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA SEEMS TO BE PARTICULARLY IN
THE BULLS-EYE. IF MODELS ARE CORRECT...ANOTHER MCS SHOULD QUICKLY
DEVELOP OVER WESTERN OHIO SUNDAY MORNING AND MOVE EASTWARD WITH
THE SURFACE LOW. WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE IF THE MCS
DEVELOPS. ADDITIONALLY...LATEST FORECAST HODOGRAPHS ARE SHOWING
HELICITY VALUES REACHING NEAR 500 IN THE SOUTH. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE AS PWATS REACH CLOSE TO 2 INCHES. AGAIN...SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED...WITH THE HIGHEST
THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTH.

COMPLEX WILL EXIT LATE SUNDAY AFT/EARLY EVENING AND THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BEGIN TO CALM DOWN. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
CROSS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STORM.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT...SPINNING AROUND BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CROSSES MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE RISK OF A STORM AS THE BOUNDARY SWINGS THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT AS ENTIRE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES
EASTWARD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER
WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS EXPD TDA WITH A MIX OF DIURNAL CU AND AC. A WK SHRTWV
APCHS THIS EVE...BUT WITH LMTD INSTBY AND MOISTURE ONLY INCLUDED
VCSH IN THE TAFS. AN MCS WL LIKELY AFFECT PORTS S OF PIT LT TNGT
INTO ERLY SUN MRNG. WITH TIMING/LOCATION UNCERTAINTIES MAINTAINED
A VCTS MENTION IN THE TAF ATTM WITH MVFR CONDS.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ADVNG LOW PRES WL LIKELY BRING TSTM RSTRNS SUN...WITH LINGERING
RSTRNS INTO MON AS IT/S ASSOCIATED CDFNT CROSSES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 261045
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
645 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND. THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY
WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RUSH EASTWARD THIS MORNING...ENDING THE
SHOWERS AND ALLOWING FOR A REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER. UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS WILL RESPOND WITH SOME RIDGING ALOFT. WAA WILL ENSUE WITH
THE RISING HEIGHTS AND A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH ACTIVITY...IF ANY TODAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT RISES WILL STALL AND LEAVE THE AREA
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL WAVES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION...AS WILL THE REAL UNSTABLE AIR. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...CONNECTED TO A SURFACE LOW OVER THE MIDWEST...
WILL STRETCH ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS AFTERNOON. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A
SHOWER OR STORM COULD DEVELOP LATE TODAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A PRETTY WELL CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WITH
UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR VALUES.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
WAVE RUSHES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES EASTWARD INTO IL AND ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. MODELS ARE
SHOWING A NOCTURNAL MCS DEVELOPING NEAR THE SURFACE LOW TONIGHT AND
HEADING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE. SPOKES OF
ENERGY WILL BREAK AWAY FROM THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AND DRIFT EASTWARD
OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO
DEVELOP WITH THESE WAVES...BUT AGAIN...THEY WILL BE MOVING INTO
MORE STABLE AIR. SHEAR VALUES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT SO IF ACTIVITY
GETS ROLLING IT SHOULD BE SUSTAINABLE. I WOULD THINK THAT THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY WOULD BE WEST WITH THE MAIN MCS.

SUNDAY SURE LOOKS LIKE THE DAY THAT WILL BE MOST WORRISOME.
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE ITS DESTABILIZATION AS THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES INTO WESTERN OHIO. A VERY BUOYANT ATMOSPHERE WITH STRONG
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND SHEAR WILL PROVIDE A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA SEEMS TO BE PARTICULARLY IN
THE BULLS-EYE. IF MODELS ARE CORRECT...ANOTHER MCS SHOULD QUICKLY
DEVELOP OVER WESTERN OHIO SUNDAY MORNING AND MOVE EASTWARD WITH
THE SURFACE LOW. WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE IF THE MCS
DEVELOPS. ADDITIONALLY...LATEST FORECAST HODOGRAPHS ARE SHOWING
HELICITY VALUES REACHING NEAR 500 IN THE SOUTH. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE AS PWATS REACH CLOSE TO 2 INCHES. AGAIN...SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED...WITH THE HIGHEST
THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTH.

COMPLEX WILL EXIT LATE SUNDAY AFT/EARLY EVENING AND THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BEGIN TO CALM DOWN. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
CROSS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STORM.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT...SPINNING AROUND BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CROSSES MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE RISK OF A STORM AS THE BOUNDARY SWINGS THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT AS ENTIRE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES
EASTWARD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER
WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR FOR THE MOST PART TODAY...WITH JUST SCT CU UNDERNEATH MID
CLOUD. POPUP SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT TOO
SCATTERED TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.

MAIN QUESTION TONIGHT IS IF/WHEN THE OUTSKIRTS AN MCS ROLL THROUGH.
FOR NOW...KEPT TIMING IN THE 08Z TO 10Z FOR OUR SOUTHERN
TERMINALS...BUT THIS TIMING IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. ZZV/HLG/MGW DO
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING TSRA FROM ANY SORT OF COMPLEX
THOUGH AND INCLUDED A LATE VCTS FOR THE POSSIBILITY. THE MCS COULD
ALSO REMAIN OFF TO THE SOUTH...MORE INTO WV. LIGHTER SHRA POSSIBLE
TO THE NORTH. BETTER CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ON SUNDAY
AFTER THIS TAF CYCLE.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM RESTRICTIONS
SUN. ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE MON AS THE ASSOCIATED
COLDFRONT CROSSES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260815
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
415 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND. THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY
WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RUSH EASTWARD THIS MORNING...ENDING THE
SHOWERS AND ALLOWING FOR A REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER. UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS WILL RESPOND WITH SOME RIDGING ALOFT. WAA WILL ENSUE WITH
THE RISING HEIGHTS AND A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH ACTIVITY...IF ANY TODAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT RISES WILL STALL AND LEAVE THE AREA
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL WAVES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION...AS WILL THE REAL UNSTABLE AIR. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...CONNECTED TO A SURFACE LOW OVER THE MIDWEST...
WILL STRETCH ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS AFTERNOON. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A
SHOWER OR STORM COULD DEVELOP LATE TODAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A PRETTY WELL CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WITH
UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR VALUES.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
WAVE RUSHES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES EASTWARD INTO IL AND ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. MODELS ARE
SHOWING A NOCTURNAL MCS DEVELOPING NEAR THE SURFACE LOW TONIGHT AND
HEADING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE. SPOKES OF
ENERGY WILL BREAK AWAY FROM THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AND DRIFT EASTWARD
OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO
DEVELOP WITH THESE WAVES...BUT AGAIN...THEY WILL BE MOVING INTO
MORE STABLE AIR. SHEAR VALUES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT SO IF ACTIVITY
GETS ROLLING IT SHOULD BE SUSTAINABLE. I WOULD THINK THAT THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY WOULD BE WEST WITH THE MAIN MCS.

SUNDAY SURE LOOKS LIKE THE DAY THAT WILL BE MOST WORRISOME.
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE ITS DESTABILIZATION AS THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES INTO WESTERN OHIO. A VERY BUOYANT ATMOSPHERE WITH STRONG
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND SHEAR WILL PROVIDE A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA SEEMS TO BE PARTICULARLY IN
THE BULLS-EYE. IF MODELS ARE CORRECT...ANOTHER MCS SHOULD QUICKLY
DEVELOP OVER WESTERN OHIO SUNDAY MORNING AND MOVE EASTWARD WITH
THE SURFACE LOW. WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE IF THE MCS
DEVELOPS. ADDITIONALLY...LATEST FORECAST HODOGRAPHS ARE SHOWING
HELICITY VALUES REACHING NEAR 500 IN THE SOUTH. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE AS PWATS REACH CLOSE TO 2 INCHES. AGAIN...SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED...WITH THE HIGHEST
THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTH.

COMPLEX WILL EXIT LATE SUNDAY AFT/EARLY EVENING AND THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BEGIN TO CALM DOWN. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
CROSS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STORM.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT...SPINNING AROUND BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CROSSES MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE RISK OF A STORM AS THE BOUNDARY SWINGS THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT AS ENTIRE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES
EASTWARD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER
WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR IN THE TAFS...WITH CAVEATS. SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THROUGH
10Z OR SO IS PROVIDING MAINLY MID CLOUDS AND A FEW
SPRINKLES/-SHRA. THE SHRA WILL MOVE OUT BUT THE MID CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SOME SCT CU MAY FORM
UNDERNEATH. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHRA/TSRA IN DAYTIME HEATING BUT
THOUGHT CHANCES A BIT LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS POINT.

THINGS GET INTERESTING TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE TAF
PERIOD...PARTICULARLY ACROSS ERN OH AND SRN WV...WHERE THE
OUTSKIRTS OF AN MCS COULD ROLL THROUGH AFTER 02Z. INCLUDED VCTS TO
HINT AT THIS...BUT OCCURRENCE/TIMING ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. BRIEF
IFR OR WORSE WOULD OF COURSE BE POSSIBLE IN ANY TSRA...ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM RESTRICTIONS
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE MON
AS THE ASSOCIATED COLDFRONT CROSSES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260815
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
415 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND. THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY
WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RUSH EASTWARD THIS MORNING...ENDING THE
SHOWERS AND ALLOWING FOR A REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER. UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS WILL RESPOND WITH SOME RIDGING ALOFT. WAA WILL ENSUE WITH
THE RISING HEIGHTS AND A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH ACTIVITY...IF ANY TODAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT RISES WILL STALL AND LEAVE THE AREA
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL WAVES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION...AS WILL THE REAL UNSTABLE AIR. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...CONNECTED TO A SURFACE LOW OVER THE MIDWEST...
WILL STRETCH ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS AFTERNOON. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A
SHOWER OR STORM COULD DEVELOP LATE TODAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A PRETTY WELL CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WITH
UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR VALUES.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
WAVE RUSHES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES EASTWARD INTO IL AND ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. MODELS ARE
SHOWING A NOCTURNAL MCS DEVELOPING NEAR THE SURFACE LOW TONIGHT AND
HEADING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE. SPOKES OF
ENERGY WILL BREAK AWAY FROM THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AND DRIFT EASTWARD
OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO
DEVELOP WITH THESE WAVES...BUT AGAIN...THEY WILL BE MOVING INTO
MORE STABLE AIR. SHEAR VALUES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT SO IF ACTIVITY
GETS ROLLING IT SHOULD BE SUSTAINABLE. I WOULD THINK THAT THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY WOULD BE WEST WITH THE MAIN MCS.

SUNDAY SURE LOOKS LIKE THE DAY THAT WILL BE MOST WORRISOME.
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE ITS DESTABILIZATION AS THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES INTO WESTERN OHIO. A VERY BUOYANT ATMOSPHERE WITH STRONG
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND SHEAR WILL PROVIDE A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA SEEMS TO BE PARTICULARLY IN
THE BULLS-EYE. IF MODELS ARE CORRECT...ANOTHER MCS SHOULD QUICKLY
DEVELOP OVER WESTERN OHIO SUNDAY MORNING AND MOVE EASTWARD WITH
THE SURFACE LOW. WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE IF THE MCS
DEVELOPS. ADDITIONALLY...LATEST FORECAST HODOGRAPHS ARE SHOWING
HELICITY VALUES REACHING NEAR 500 IN THE SOUTH. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE AS PWATS REACH CLOSE TO 2 INCHES. AGAIN...SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED...WITH THE HIGHEST
THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTH.

COMPLEX WILL EXIT LATE SUNDAY AFT/EARLY EVENING AND THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BEGIN TO CALM DOWN. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
CROSS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STORM.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT...SPINNING AROUND BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CROSSES MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE RISK OF A STORM AS THE BOUNDARY SWINGS THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT AS ENTIRE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES
EASTWARD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER
WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR IN THE TAFS...WITH CAVEATS. SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THROUGH
10Z OR SO IS PROVIDING MAINLY MID CLOUDS AND A FEW
SPRINKLES/-SHRA. THE SHRA WILL MOVE OUT BUT THE MID CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SOME SCT CU MAY FORM
UNDERNEATH. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHRA/TSRA IN DAYTIME HEATING BUT
THOUGHT CHANCES A BIT LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS POINT.

THINGS GET INTERESTING TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE TAF
PERIOD...PARTICULARLY ACROSS ERN OH AND SRN WV...WHERE THE
OUTSKIRTS OF AN MCS COULD ROLL THROUGH AFTER 02Z. INCLUDED VCTS TO
HINT AT THIS...BUT OCCURRENCE/TIMING ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. BRIEF
IFR OR WORSE WOULD OF COURSE BE POSSIBLE IN ANY TSRA...ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM RESTRICTIONS
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE MON
AS THE ASSOCIATED COLDFRONT CROSSES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260538
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
138 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND. THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY
WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SOME CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NICE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
QUICKLY SWING THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THE FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS
FEEDING MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND SHORTWAVE PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT...
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE WAVE. MAIN PORTION OF THE WAVE
WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTH SO WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS THERE.
HAVE ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND ADJUSTED TEMPS UPWARDS.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RUSH EASTWARD THIS MORNING AND UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS WILL RESPOND WITH SOME RIDGING ALOFT. WAA WILL ENSUE WITH
THE RISING HEIGHTS AND A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH ACTIVITY...IF ANY TODAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT RISES WILL STALL AND LEAVE THE AREA
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL WAVES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION...AS WILL THE REAL UNSTABLE AIR. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...CONNECTED TO A SURFACE LOW OVER THE MIDWEST...
WILL STRETCH ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS AFTERNOON. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A
SHOWER OR STORM COULD DEVELOP LATE TODAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A PRETTY WELL CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WITH
UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR VALUES.

CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY TODAY AS WE WILL SEE A
DECREASE IN THE MORNING...BUT MORE CLOUDS MOVING IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES EASTWARD INTO IL AND ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. MODELS ARE
SHOWING A NOCTURNAL MCS DEVELOPING NEAR THE SURFACE LOW TONIGHT AND
HEADING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE. SPOKES OF
ENERGY WILL BREAK AWAY FROM THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AND DRIFT EASTWARD
OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO
DEVELOP WITH THESE WAVES...BUT AGAIN...THEY WILL BE MOVING INTO
MORE STABLE AIR. SHEAR VALUES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT SO IF ACTIVITY
GETS ROLLING IT SHOULD BE SUSTAINABLE. I WOULD THINK THAT THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY WOULD BE WEST WITH THE MAIN MCS.

SUNDAY SURE LOOKS LIKE THE DAY THAT WILL BE MOST WORRISOME.
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE ITS DESTABILIZATION AS THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES INTO WESTERN OHIO. A VERY BUOYANT ATMOSPHERE WITH STRONG
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND SHEAR WILL PROVIDE A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA SEEMS TO BE PARTICULARLY IN
THE BULLS-EYE. IF MODELS ARE CORRECT...ANOTHER MCS SHOULD QUICKLY
DEVELOP OVER WESTERN OHIO SUNDAY MORNING AND MOVE EASTWARD WITH
THE SURFACE LOW. WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE IF THE MCS
DEVELOPS. ADDITIONALLY...LATEST FORECAST HODOGRAPHS ARE SHOWING
HELICITY VALUES REACHING NEAR 500 IN THE SOUTH. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE AS PWATS REACH CLOSE TO 2 INCHES. AGAIN...SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED...WITH THE HIGHEST
THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTH.

COMPLEX WILL EXIT LATE SUNDAY AFT/EARLY EVENING AND THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BEGIN TO CALM DOWN. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
CROSS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STORM.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT...SPINNING AROUND BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CROSSES MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE RISK OF A STORM AS THE BOUNDARY SWINGS THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT AS ENTIRE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES
EASTWARD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER
WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR IN THE TAFS...WITH CAVEATS. SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THROUGH
10Z OR SO IS PROVIDING MAINLY MID CLOUDS AND A FEW
SPRINKLES/-SHRA. THE SHRA WILL MOVE OUT BUT THE MID CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SOME SCT CU MAY FORM
UNDERNEATH. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHRA/TSRA IN DAYTIME HEATING BUT
THOUGHT CHANCES A BIT LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS POINT.

THINGS GET INTERESTING TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE TAF
PERIOD...PARTICULARLY ACROSS ERN OH AND SRN WV...WHERE THE
OUTSKIRTS OF AN MCS COULD ROLL THROUGH AFTER 02Z. INCLUDED VCTS TO
HINT AT THIS...BUT OCCURRENCE/TIMING ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. BRIEF
IFR OR WORSE WOULD OF COURSE BE POSSIBLE IN ANY TSRA...ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM RESTRICTIONS
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE MON
AS THE ASSOCIATED COLDFRONT CROSSES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260538
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
138 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND. THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY
WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SOME CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NICE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
QUICKLY SWING THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THE FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS
FEEDING MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND SHORTWAVE PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT...
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE WAVE. MAIN PORTION OF THE WAVE
WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTH SO WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS THERE.
HAVE ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND ADJUSTED TEMPS UPWARDS.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RUSH EASTWARD THIS MORNING AND UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS WILL RESPOND WITH SOME RIDGING ALOFT. WAA WILL ENSUE WITH
THE RISING HEIGHTS AND A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH ACTIVITY...IF ANY TODAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT RISES WILL STALL AND LEAVE THE AREA
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL WAVES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION...AS WILL THE REAL UNSTABLE AIR. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...CONNECTED TO A SURFACE LOW OVER THE MIDWEST...
WILL STRETCH ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS AFTERNOON. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A
SHOWER OR STORM COULD DEVELOP LATE TODAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A PRETTY WELL CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WITH
UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR VALUES.

CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY TODAY AS WE WILL SEE A
DECREASE IN THE MORNING...BUT MORE CLOUDS MOVING IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES EASTWARD INTO IL AND ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. MODELS ARE
SHOWING A NOCTURNAL MCS DEVELOPING NEAR THE SURFACE LOW TONIGHT AND
HEADING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE. SPOKES OF
ENERGY WILL BREAK AWAY FROM THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AND DRIFT EASTWARD
OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO
DEVELOP WITH THESE WAVES...BUT AGAIN...THEY WILL BE MOVING INTO
MORE STABLE AIR. SHEAR VALUES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT SO IF ACTIVITY
GETS ROLLING IT SHOULD BE SUSTAINABLE. I WOULD THINK THAT THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY WOULD BE WEST WITH THE MAIN MCS.

SUNDAY SURE LOOKS LIKE THE DAY THAT WILL BE MOST WORRISOME.
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE ITS DESTABILIZATION AS THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES INTO WESTERN OHIO. A VERY BUOYANT ATMOSPHERE WITH STRONG
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND SHEAR WILL PROVIDE A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA SEEMS TO BE PARTICULARLY IN
THE BULLS-EYE. IF MODELS ARE CORRECT...ANOTHER MCS SHOULD QUICKLY
DEVELOP OVER WESTERN OHIO SUNDAY MORNING AND MOVE EASTWARD WITH
THE SURFACE LOW. WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE IF THE MCS
DEVELOPS. ADDITIONALLY...LATEST FORECAST HODOGRAPHS ARE SHOWING
HELICITY VALUES REACHING NEAR 500 IN THE SOUTH. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE AS PWATS REACH CLOSE TO 2 INCHES. AGAIN...SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED...WITH THE HIGHEST
THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTH.

COMPLEX WILL EXIT LATE SUNDAY AFT/EARLY EVENING AND THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BEGIN TO CALM DOWN. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
CROSS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STORM.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT...SPINNING AROUND BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CROSSES MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE RISK OF A STORM AS THE BOUNDARY SWINGS THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT AS ENTIRE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES
EASTWARD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER
WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR IN THE TAFS...WITH CAVEATS. SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THROUGH
10Z OR SO IS PROVIDING MAINLY MID CLOUDS AND A FEW
SPRINKLES/-SHRA. THE SHRA WILL MOVE OUT BUT THE MID CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SOME SCT CU MAY FORM
UNDERNEATH. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHRA/TSRA IN DAYTIME HEATING BUT
THOUGHT CHANCES A BIT LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS POINT.

THINGS GET INTERESTING TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE TAF
PERIOD...PARTICULARLY ACROSS ERN OH AND SRN WV...WHERE THE
OUTSKIRTS OF AN MCS COULD ROLL THROUGH AFTER 02Z. INCLUDED VCTS TO
HINT AT THIS...BUT OCCURRENCE/TIMING ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. BRIEF
IFR OR WORSE WOULD OF COURSE BE POSSIBLE IN ANY TSRA...ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM RESTRICTIONS
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE MON
AS THE ASSOCIATED COLDFRONT CROSSES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260513 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
113 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND. THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY
WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SOME CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NICE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
QUICKLY SWING THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THE FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS
FEEDING MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND SHORTWAVE PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT...
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE WAVE. MAIN PORTION OF THE WAVE
WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTH SO WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS THERE.
HAVE ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND ADJUSTED TEMPS UPWARDS.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RUSH EASTWARD THIS MORNING AND UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS WILL RESPOND WITH SOME RIDGING ALOFT. WAA WILL ENSUE WITH
THE RISING HEIGHTS AND A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH ACTIVITY...IF ANY TODAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT RISES WILL STALL AND LEAVE THE AREA
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL WAVES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION...AS WILL THE REAL UNSTABLE AIR. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...CONNECTED TO A SURFACE LOW OVER THE MIDWEST...
WILL STRETCH ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS AFTERNOON. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A
SHOWER OR STORM COULD DEVELOP LATE TODAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A PRETTY WELL CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WITH
UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR VALUES.

CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY TODAY AS WE WILL SEE A
DECREASE IN THE MORNING...BUT MORE CLOUDS MOVING IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES EASTWARD INTO IL AND ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. MODELS ARE
SHOWING A NOCTURNAL MCS DEVELOPING NEAR THE SURFACE LOW TONIGHT AND
HEADING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE. SPOKES OF
ENERGY WILL BREAK AWAY FROM THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AND DRIFT EASTWARD
OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO
DEVELOP WITH THESE WAVES...BUT AGAIN...THEY WILL BE MOVING INTO
MORE STABLE AIR. SHEAR VALUES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT SO IF ACTIVITY
GETS ROLLING IT SHOULD BE SUSTAINABLE. I WOULD THINK THAT THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY WOULD BE WEST WITH THE MAIN MCS.

SUNDAY SURE LOOKS LIKE THE DAY THAT WILL BE MOST WORRISOME.
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE ITS DESTABILIZATION AS THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES INTO WESTERN OHIO. A VERY BUOYANT ATMOSPHERE WITH STRONG
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND SHEAR WILL PROVIDE A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA SEEMS TO BE PARTICULARLY IN
THE BULLS-EYE. IF MODELS ARE CORRECT...ANOTHER MCS SHOULD QUICKLY
DEVELOP OVER WESTERN OHIO SUNDAY MORNING AND MOVE EASTWARD WITH
THE SURFACE LOW. WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE IF THE MCS
DEVELOPS. ADDITIONALLY...LATEST FORECAST HODOGRAPHS ARE SHOWING
HELICITY VALUES REACHING NEAR 500 IN THE SOUTH. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE AS PWATS REACH CLOSE TO 2 INCHES. AGAIN...SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED...WITH THE HIGHEST
THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTH.

COMPLEX WILL EXIT LATE SUNDAY AFT/EARLY EVENING AND THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BEGIN TO CALM DOWN. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
CROSS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STORM.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT...SPINNING AROUND BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CROSSES MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE RISK OF A STORM AS THE BOUNDARY SWINGS THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT AS ENTIRE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES
EASTWARD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER
WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
TONIGHT...ULTIMATELY KEEPING FOG DEVELOPMENT AT BAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SAT...ALTHOUGH SOME RESTRICTIONS COULD
COME AS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM RESTRICTIONS
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE MON AS
THE ASSOCIATED COLDFRONT CROSSES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260513 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
113 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND. THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY
WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SOME CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NICE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
QUICKLY SWING THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THE FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS
FEEDING MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND SHORTWAVE PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT...
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE WAVE. MAIN PORTION OF THE WAVE
WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTH SO WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS THERE.
HAVE ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND ADJUSTED TEMPS UPWARDS.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RUSH EASTWARD THIS MORNING AND UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS WILL RESPOND WITH SOME RIDGING ALOFT. WAA WILL ENSUE WITH
THE RISING HEIGHTS AND A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH ACTIVITY...IF ANY TODAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT RISES WILL STALL AND LEAVE THE AREA
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL WAVES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION...AS WILL THE REAL UNSTABLE AIR. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...CONNECTED TO A SURFACE LOW OVER THE MIDWEST...
WILL STRETCH ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS AFTERNOON. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A
SHOWER OR STORM COULD DEVELOP LATE TODAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A PRETTY WELL CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WITH
UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR VALUES.

CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY TODAY AS WE WILL SEE A
DECREASE IN THE MORNING...BUT MORE CLOUDS MOVING IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES EASTWARD INTO IL AND ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. MODELS ARE
SHOWING A NOCTURNAL MCS DEVELOPING NEAR THE SURFACE LOW TONIGHT AND
HEADING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE. SPOKES OF
ENERGY WILL BREAK AWAY FROM THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AND DRIFT EASTWARD
OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO
DEVELOP WITH THESE WAVES...BUT AGAIN...THEY WILL BE MOVING INTO
MORE STABLE AIR. SHEAR VALUES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT SO IF ACTIVITY
GETS ROLLING IT SHOULD BE SUSTAINABLE. I WOULD THINK THAT THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY WOULD BE WEST WITH THE MAIN MCS.

SUNDAY SURE LOOKS LIKE THE DAY THAT WILL BE MOST WORRISOME.
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE ITS DESTABILIZATION AS THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES INTO WESTERN OHIO. A VERY BUOYANT ATMOSPHERE WITH STRONG
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND SHEAR WILL PROVIDE A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA SEEMS TO BE PARTICULARLY IN
THE BULLS-EYE. IF MODELS ARE CORRECT...ANOTHER MCS SHOULD QUICKLY
DEVELOP OVER WESTERN OHIO SUNDAY MORNING AND MOVE EASTWARD WITH
THE SURFACE LOW. WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE IF THE MCS
DEVELOPS. ADDITIONALLY...LATEST FORECAST HODOGRAPHS ARE SHOWING
HELICITY VALUES REACHING NEAR 500 IN THE SOUTH. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE AS PWATS REACH CLOSE TO 2 INCHES. AGAIN...SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED...WITH THE HIGHEST
THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTH.

COMPLEX WILL EXIT LATE SUNDAY AFT/EARLY EVENING AND THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BEGIN TO CALM DOWN. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
CROSS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STORM.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT...SPINNING AROUND BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CROSSES MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE RISK OF A STORM AS THE BOUNDARY SWINGS THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT AS ENTIRE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES
EASTWARD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER
WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
TONIGHT...ULTIMATELY KEEPING FOG DEVELOPMENT AT BAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SAT...ALTHOUGH SOME RESTRICTIONS COULD
COME AS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM RESTRICTIONS
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE MON AS
THE ASSOCIATED COLDFRONT CROSSES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260027
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
827 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.
COLDER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE CLOUDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...HOWEVER A
LACK OF INSTABILITY AND A VERY DRY COLUMN BELOW IT WILL LEAD TO
VERY LOW CHANCES OF RAINFALL THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. BEFORE THE
HIGHER CLOUDS APPROACH...OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY TO EXIST WITH A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND CALM WINDS.
AS SUCH...RAPID FALL OFFS IN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING...BEFORE THE DIURNAL FALL OFF EBBS A BIT OVERNIGHT. MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER TONIGHT. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHWR AND TSTM CHCS WL INCRS THIS WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SHRTWVS
MOV OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SFC FRONTAL PLACEMENT UNDR
INCRSG BUT MORE ZONAL FLOW WL BE CRITICAL FOR UPR OH VALLEY SVR
POTENTIAL. AT MOMENT...THE INITIAL SVR CHC...ALBEIT SLGT...RESIDES
WITH PASSAGE OF A POTENTIAL MCS OR REMNANTS LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY
SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY...A TRAILING...AND MORE POTENT SHRTWV IS PROGGED OFF THE
GREAT LAKES. INCRSD DEEP LYR SHEAR AND STEEPENING MID LVL LAPSE
RATES WITH THAT FEATURE WL BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT FOR AN ARRAY OF
SEVERE WEATHER...BUT LIMITATIONS ARISE IN ACTUAL INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS AND BNDRY PLACEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN RELATION TO OUTFLOW
REINFORCEMENT FM THE SATURDAY SYSTEM.

AT ANY RATE...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE
REGION WITH THESE POSSIBILITIES AND LCL MENTION HAS BEEN CONTINUED
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WL FEATURE AN ERN CONUS UPR TROF PERSISTING THRU
THE PD WITH BLO AVG TEMPS. SFC RIDGING WL BLD IN UNDER THE TROF BY
MID WK...KEEPING ONLY UNMENTIONABLE SLGT CHCS FOR SHWRS IN THE
FCST. THE RIDGING IS EXPD TO WKN BY LT WK WITH BETTER CHCS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
TONIGHT...ULTIMATELY KEEPING FOG DEVELOPMENT AT BAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SAT...ALTHOUGH SOME RESTRICTIONS COULD
COME AS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM RESTRICTIONS
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE MON AS
THE ASSOCIATED COLDFRONT CROSSES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 252231
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
631 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.
COLDER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE CLOUDS TOWARD MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER A LACK OF INSTABILITY
AND A VERY DRY COLUMN BELOW IT WILL LEAD TO VERY LOW CHANCES OF
RAINFALL THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. BEFORE THE HIGHER CLOUDS
APPROACH...OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
EXIST WITH A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND CALM WINDS. AS
SUCH...RAPID FALL OFFS IN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING...BEFORE THE DIURNAL FALL OFF EBBS A BIT OVERNIGHT. MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER TONIGHT. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHWR AND TSTM CHCS WL INCRS THIS WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SHRTWVS
MOV OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SFC FRONTAL PLACEMENT UNDR
INCRSG BUT MORE ZONAL FLOW WL BE CRITICAL FOR UPR OH VALLEY SVR
POTENTIAL. AT MOMENT...THE INITIAL SVR CHC...ALBEIT SLGT...RESIDES
WITH PASSAGE OF A POTENTIAL MCS OR REMNANTS LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY
SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY...A TRAILING...AND MORE POTENT SHRTWV IS PROGGED OFF THE
GREAT LAKES. INCRSD DEEP LYR SHEAR AND STEEPENING MID LVL LAPSE
RATES WITH THAT FEATURE WL BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT FOR AN ARRAY OF
SEVERE WEATHER...BUT LIMITATIONS ARISE IN ACTUAL INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS AND BNDRY PLACEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN RELATION TO OUTFLOW
REINFORCEMENT FM THE SATURDAY SYSTEM.

AT ANY RATE...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE
REGION WITH THESE POSSIBILITIES AND LCL MENTION HAS BEEN CONTINUED
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WL FEATURE AN ERN CONUS UPR TROF PERSISTING THRU
THE PD WITH BLO AVG TEMPS. SFC RIDGING WL BLD IN UNDER THE TROF BY
MID WK...KEEPING ONLY UNMENTIONABLE SLGT CHCS FOR SHWRS IN THE
FCST. THE RIDGING IS EXPD TO WKN BY LT WK WITH BETTER CHCS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
TONIGHT...ULTIMATELY KEEPING FOG DEVELOPMENT AT BAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SAT...ALTHOUGH SOME RESTRICTIONS COULD
COME AS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM RESTRICTIONS
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE MON AS
THE ASSOCIATED COLDFRONT CROSSES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 252231
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
631 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.
COLDER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE CLOUDS TOWARD MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER A LACK OF INSTABILITY
AND A VERY DRY COLUMN BELOW IT WILL LEAD TO VERY LOW CHANCES OF
RAINFALL THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. BEFORE THE HIGHER CLOUDS
APPROACH...OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
EXIST WITH A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND CALM WINDS. AS
SUCH...RAPID FALL OFFS IN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING...BEFORE THE DIURNAL FALL OFF EBBS A BIT OVERNIGHT. MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER TONIGHT. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHWR AND TSTM CHCS WL INCRS THIS WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SHRTWVS
MOV OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SFC FRONTAL PLACEMENT UNDR
INCRSG BUT MORE ZONAL FLOW WL BE CRITICAL FOR UPR OH VALLEY SVR
POTENTIAL. AT MOMENT...THE INITIAL SVR CHC...ALBEIT SLGT...RESIDES
WITH PASSAGE OF A POTENTIAL MCS OR REMNANTS LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY
SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY...A TRAILING...AND MORE POTENT SHRTWV IS PROGGED OFF THE
GREAT LAKES. INCRSD DEEP LYR SHEAR AND STEEPENING MID LVL LAPSE
RATES WITH THAT FEATURE WL BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT FOR AN ARRAY OF
SEVERE WEATHER...BUT LIMITATIONS ARISE IN ACTUAL INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS AND BNDRY PLACEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN RELATION TO OUTFLOW
REINFORCEMENT FM THE SATURDAY SYSTEM.

AT ANY RATE...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE
REGION WITH THESE POSSIBILITIES AND LCL MENTION HAS BEEN CONTINUED
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WL FEATURE AN ERN CONUS UPR TROF PERSISTING THRU
THE PD WITH BLO AVG TEMPS. SFC RIDGING WL BLD IN UNDER THE TROF BY
MID WK...KEEPING ONLY UNMENTIONABLE SLGT CHCS FOR SHWRS IN THE
FCST. THE RIDGING IS EXPD TO WKN BY LT WK WITH BETTER CHCS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
TONIGHT...ULTIMATELY KEEPING FOG DEVELOPMENT AT BAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SAT...ALTHOUGH SOME RESTRICTIONS COULD
COME AS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM RESTRICTIONS
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE MON AS
THE ASSOCIATED COLDFRONT CROSSES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 252127
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
527 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.
COLDER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE CLOUDS TOWARD MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER A LACK OF INSTABILITY
AND A VERY DRY COLUMN BELOW IT WILL LEAD TO VERY LOW CHANCES OF
RAINFALL THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. BEFORE THE HIGHER CLOUDS
APPROACH...OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
EXIST WITH A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND CALM WINDS. AS
SUCH...RAPID FALL OFFS IN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING...BEFORE THE DIURNAL FALL OFF EBBS A BIT OVERNIGHT. MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER TONIGHT. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHWR AND TSTM CHCS WL INCRS THIS WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SHRTWVS
MOV OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SFC FRONTAL PLACEMENT UNDR
INCRSG BUT MORE ZONAL FLOW WL BE CRITICAL FOR UPR OH VALLEY SVR
POTENTIAL. AT MOMENT...THE INITIAL SVR CHC...ALBEIT SLGT...RESIDES
WITH PASSAGE OF A POTENTIAL MCS OR REMNANTS LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY
SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY...A TRAILING...AND MORE POTENT SHRTWV IS PROGGED OFF THE
GREAT LAKES. INCRSD DEEP LYR SHEAR AND STEEPENING MID LVL LAPSE
RATES WITH THAT FEATURE WL BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT FOR AN ARRAY OF
SEVERE WEATHER...BUT LIMITATIONS ARISE IN ACTUAL INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS AND BNDRY PLACEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN RELATION TO OUTFLOW
REINFORCEMENT FM THE SATURDAY SYSTEM.

AT ANY RATE...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE
REGION WITH THESE POSSIBILITIES AND LCL MENTION HAS BEEN CONTINUED
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WL FEATURE AN ERN CONUS UPR TROF PERSISTING THRU
THE PD WITH BLO AVG TEMPS. SFC RIDGING WL BLD IN UNDER THE TROF BY
MID WK...KEEPING ONLY UNMENTIONABLE SLGT CHCS FOR SHWRS IN THE
FCST. THE RIDGING IS EXPD TO WKN BY LT WK WITH BETTER CHCS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY SFC HIGH PRES WL MAINTAIN VFR CONDS THRU TNGT. A WK
DISTURBANCE WL CROSS THE RGN SAT. VFR SC/CU WL INCR...THOUGH
SHWR/TSTM CHCS APPEAR TOO LOW FOR A TAF MENTION ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ADVNG LOW PRES WL LIKELY BRING SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS LT SAT NGT AND
SUN. RSTRNS ARE PSBL MON AS THE LOW/S ASSOCIATED CDFNT CROSSES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 252127
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
527 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.
COLDER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE CLOUDS TOWARD MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER A LACK OF INSTABILITY
AND A VERY DRY COLUMN BELOW IT WILL LEAD TO VERY LOW CHANCES OF
RAINFALL THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. BEFORE THE HIGHER CLOUDS
APPROACH...OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
EXIST WITH A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND CALM WINDS. AS
SUCH...RAPID FALL OFFS IN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING...BEFORE THE DIURNAL FALL OFF EBBS A BIT OVERNIGHT. MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER TONIGHT. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHWR AND TSTM CHCS WL INCRS THIS WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SHRTWVS
MOV OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SFC FRONTAL PLACEMENT UNDR
INCRSG BUT MORE ZONAL FLOW WL BE CRITICAL FOR UPR OH VALLEY SVR
POTENTIAL. AT MOMENT...THE INITIAL SVR CHC...ALBEIT SLGT...RESIDES
WITH PASSAGE OF A POTENTIAL MCS OR REMNANTS LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY
SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY...A TRAILING...AND MORE POTENT SHRTWV IS PROGGED OFF THE
GREAT LAKES. INCRSD DEEP LYR SHEAR AND STEEPENING MID LVL LAPSE
RATES WITH THAT FEATURE WL BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT FOR AN ARRAY OF
SEVERE WEATHER...BUT LIMITATIONS ARISE IN ACTUAL INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS AND BNDRY PLACEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN RELATION TO OUTFLOW
REINFORCEMENT FM THE SATURDAY SYSTEM.

AT ANY RATE...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE
REGION WITH THESE POSSIBILITIES AND LCL MENTION HAS BEEN CONTINUED
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WL FEATURE AN ERN CONUS UPR TROF PERSISTING THRU
THE PD WITH BLO AVG TEMPS. SFC RIDGING WL BLD IN UNDER THE TROF BY
MID WK...KEEPING ONLY UNMENTIONABLE SLGT CHCS FOR SHWRS IN THE
FCST. THE RIDGING IS EXPD TO WKN BY LT WK WITH BETTER CHCS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY SFC HIGH PRES WL MAINTAIN VFR CONDS THRU TNGT. A WK
DISTURBANCE WL CROSS THE RGN SAT. VFR SC/CU WL INCR...THOUGH
SHWR/TSTM CHCS APPEAR TOO LOW FOR A TAF MENTION ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ADVNG LOW PRES WL LIKELY BRING SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS LT SAT NGT AND
SUN. RSTRNS ARE PSBL MON AS THE LOW/S ASSOCIATED CDFNT CROSSES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251845
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
245 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.
COLDER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
EWD RETREATING SFC HIGH UNDER WNW FLOW ALOFT WL KP THE AREA DRY
AND THROUGH TNGT. SHRTWV IN THAT FLOW WL INCRS CLD COVER AND MAY
SPAWN SOME SPRINKLES IN THE PERI DAWN HRS...BUT MEASURABLE PCPN
CHC IS MINIMAL...AND CONFINED TO THE NRN HALF OF THE CNTY WRNG
AREA. COOL NR TERM TEMPS WERE FORECAST NR SREF MEANS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHWR AND TSTM CHCS WL INCRS THIS WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SHRTWVS
MOV OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SFC FRONTAL PLACEMENT UNDR
INCRSG BUT MORE ZONAL FLOW WL BE CRITICAL FOR UPR OH VALLEY SVR
POTENTIAL. AT MOMENT...THE INITIAL SVR CHC...ALBEIT SLGT...RESIDES
WITH PASSAGE OF A POTENTIAL MCS OR REMNANTS LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY
SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY...A TRAILING...AND MORE POTENT SHRTWV IS PROGGED OFF THE
GREAT LAKES. INCRSD DEEP LYR SHEAR AND STEEPENING MID LVL LAPSE
RATES WITH THAT FEATURE WL BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT FOR AN ARRAY OF
SEVERE WEATHER...BUT LIMITATIONS ARISE IN ACTUAL INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS AND BNDRY PLACEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN RELATION TO OUTFLOW
REINFORCEMENT FM THE SATURDAY SYSTEM.

AT ANY RATE...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE
REGION WITH THESE POSSIBILITIES AND LCL MENTION HAS BEEN CONTINUED
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WL FEATURE AN ERN CONUS UPR TROF PERSISTING THRU
THE PD WITH BLO AVG TEMPS. SFC RIDGING WL BLD IN UNDER THE TROF BY
MID WK...KEEPING ONLY UNMENTIONABLE SLGT CHCS FOR SHWRS IN THE
FCST. THE RIDGING IS EXPD TO WKN BY LT WK WITH BETTER CHCS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY SFC HIGH PRES WL MAINTAIN VFR CONDS THRU TNGT. A WK
DISTURBANCE WL CROSS THE RGN SAT. VFR SC/CU WL INCR...THOUGH
SHWR/TSTM CHCS APPEAR TOO LOW FOR A TAF MENTION ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ADVNG LOW PRES WL LIKELY BRING SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS LT SAT NGT AND
SUN. RSTRNS ARE PSBL MON AS THE LOW/S ASSOCIATED CDFNT CROSSES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251845
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
245 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.
COLDER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
EWD RETREATING SFC HIGH UNDER WNW FLOW ALOFT WL KP THE AREA DRY
AND THROUGH TNGT. SHRTWV IN THAT FLOW WL INCRS CLD COVER AND MAY
SPAWN SOME SPRINKLES IN THE PERI DAWN HRS...BUT MEASURABLE PCPN
CHC IS MINIMAL...AND CONFINED TO THE NRN HALF OF THE CNTY WRNG
AREA. COOL NR TERM TEMPS WERE FORECAST NR SREF MEANS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHWR AND TSTM CHCS WL INCRS THIS WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SHRTWVS
MOV OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SFC FRONTAL PLACEMENT UNDR
INCRSG BUT MORE ZONAL FLOW WL BE CRITICAL FOR UPR OH VALLEY SVR
POTENTIAL. AT MOMENT...THE INITIAL SVR CHC...ALBEIT SLGT...RESIDES
WITH PASSAGE OF A POTENTIAL MCS OR REMNANTS LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY
SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY...A TRAILING...AND MORE POTENT SHRTWV IS PROGGED OFF THE
GREAT LAKES. INCRSD DEEP LYR SHEAR AND STEEPENING MID LVL LAPSE
RATES WITH THAT FEATURE WL BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT FOR AN ARRAY OF
SEVERE WEATHER...BUT LIMITATIONS ARISE IN ACTUAL INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS AND BNDRY PLACEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN RELATION TO OUTFLOW
REINFORCEMENT FM THE SATURDAY SYSTEM.

AT ANY RATE...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE
REGION WITH THESE POSSIBILITIES AND LCL MENTION HAS BEEN CONTINUED
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WL FEATURE AN ERN CONUS UPR TROF PERSISTING THRU
THE PD WITH BLO AVG TEMPS. SFC RIDGING WL BLD IN UNDER THE TROF BY
MID WK...KEEPING ONLY UNMENTIONABLE SLGT CHCS FOR SHWRS IN THE
FCST. THE RIDGING IS EXPD TO WKN BY LT WK WITH BETTER CHCS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY SFC HIGH PRES WL MAINTAIN VFR CONDS THRU TNGT. A WK
DISTURBANCE WL CROSS THE RGN SAT. VFR SC/CU WL INCR...THOUGH
SHWR/TSTM CHCS APPEAR TOO LOW FOR A TAF MENTION ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ADVNG LOW PRES WL LIKELY BRING SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS LT SAT NGT AND
SUN. RSTRNS ARE PSBL MON AS THE LOW/S ASSOCIATED CDFNT CROSSES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251628
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1228 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.
COLDER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EWD RETREATING SFC HIGH UNDER WNW FLOW ALOFT WL KP THE AREA DRY
AND THROUGH TNGT. SHRTWV IN THAT FLOW WL INCRS CLD COVER AND MAY
SPAWN SOME SPRINKLES IN THE PERI DAWN HRS...BUT MEASURABLE PCPN
CHC IS MINIMAL...AND CONFINED TO THE NRN ZONES. THE COOL NR TERM
TEMPS WERE FORECAST NR SREF MEANS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHWR AND TSTM CHCS WL INCRS THIS WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SHRTWVS
MOV OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SFC FRONTAL PLACEMENT UNDR
INCRSG BUT MORE ZONAL FLOW WL BE CRITICAL FOR UPR OH VALLEY SVR
POTENTIAL. AT MOMENT...THE INITIAL SVR CHC...ALBEIT SLGT...RESIDES
WITH PASSAGE OF A POTENTIAL MCS OR REMNANTS LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY
SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY...A TRAILING...AND MORE POTENT SHRTWV IS PROGGED OFF THE
GREAT LAKES. INCRSD DEEP LYR SHEAR AND STEEPENING MID LVL LAPSE
RATES WITH THAT FEATURE WL BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT FOR AN ARRAY OF
SEVERE WEATHER...BUT LIMITATIONS ARISE IN ACTUAL INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS AND BNDRY PLACEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN RELATION TO OUTFLOW
REINFORCEMENT FM THE SATURDAY SYSTEM.

AT ANY RATE...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE
REGION WITH THESE POSSIBILITIES AND LCL MENTION HAS BEEN CONTINUED
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WL FEATURE AN ERN CONUS UPR TROF PERSISTING THRU
THE PD WITH BLO AVG TEMPS. SFC RIDGING WL BLD IN UNDER THE TROF BY
MID WK...KEEPING ONLY UNMENTIONABLE SLGT CHCS FOR SHWRS IN THE
FCST. THE RIDGING IS EXPD TO WKN BY LT WK WITH BETTER CHCS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY SFC HIGH PRES WL MAINTAIN VFR CONDS THRU TNGT. A WK
DISTURBANCE WL CROSS THE RGN SAT. VFR SC/CU WL INCR...THOUGH
SHWR/TSTM CHCS APPEAR TOO LOW FOR A TAF MENTION ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ADVNG LOW PRES WL LIKELY BRING SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS LT SAT NGT AND
SUN. RSTRNS ARE PSBL MON AS THE LOW/S ASSOCIATED CDFNT CROSSES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251628
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1228 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.
COLDER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EWD RETREATING SFC HIGH UNDER WNW FLOW ALOFT WL KP THE AREA DRY
AND THROUGH TNGT. SHRTWV IN THAT FLOW WL INCRS CLD COVER AND MAY
SPAWN SOME SPRINKLES IN THE PERI DAWN HRS...BUT MEASURABLE PCPN
CHC IS MINIMAL...AND CONFINED TO THE NRN ZONES. THE COOL NR TERM
TEMPS WERE FORECAST NR SREF MEANS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHWR AND TSTM CHCS WL INCRS THIS WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SHRTWVS
MOV OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SFC FRONTAL PLACEMENT UNDR
INCRSG BUT MORE ZONAL FLOW WL BE CRITICAL FOR UPR OH VALLEY SVR
POTENTIAL. AT MOMENT...THE INITIAL SVR CHC...ALBEIT SLGT...RESIDES
WITH PASSAGE OF A POTENTIAL MCS OR REMNANTS LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY
SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY...A TRAILING...AND MORE POTENT SHRTWV IS PROGGED OFF THE
GREAT LAKES. INCRSD DEEP LYR SHEAR AND STEEPENING MID LVL LAPSE
RATES WITH THAT FEATURE WL BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT FOR AN ARRAY OF
SEVERE WEATHER...BUT LIMITATIONS ARISE IN ACTUAL INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS AND BNDRY PLACEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN RELATION TO OUTFLOW
REINFORCEMENT FM THE SATURDAY SYSTEM.

AT ANY RATE...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE
REGION WITH THESE POSSIBILITIES AND LCL MENTION HAS BEEN CONTINUED
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WL FEATURE AN ERN CONUS UPR TROF PERSISTING THRU
THE PD WITH BLO AVG TEMPS. SFC RIDGING WL BLD IN UNDER THE TROF BY
MID WK...KEEPING ONLY UNMENTIONABLE SLGT CHCS FOR SHWRS IN THE
FCST. THE RIDGING IS EXPD TO WKN BY LT WK WITH BETTER CHCS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY SFC HIGH PRES WL MAINTAIN VFR CONDS THRU TNGT. A WK
DISTURBANCE WL CROSS THE RGN SAT. VFR SC/CU WL INCR...THOUGH
SHWR/TSTM CHCS APPEAR TOO LOW FOR A TAF MENTION ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ADVNG LOW PRES WL LIKELY BRING SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS LT SAT NGT AND
SUN. RSTRNS ARE PSBL MON AS THE LOW/S ASSOCIATED CDFNT CROSSES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251448
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1048 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.
COLDER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE LATE MRNG UPDATE.

PREVIOUS...
SFC HIGH UNDER WNW FLOW ALOFT WL KP THE AREA DRY AND THROUGH TNGT.
THE COOL NR TERM TEMPS WERE FORECAST NR SREF MEANS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHWR AND TSTM CHCS WL INCRS THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SHRTWVS MOV
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SFC FRONTAL PLACEMENT UNDR INCRSG
...BUT MORE ZONAL FLOW WL BE CRITICAL FOR UPR OH VALLEY SVR
POTENTIAL. AT MOMENT...THE INITIAL CHC...ALBEIT SLGT...RESIDES
WITH PASSAGE OF A POTENTIAL MCS OR REMNANTS LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY
SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY...A TRAILING...AND MORE POTENT SHRTWV IS PROGGED OFF THE
GREAT LAKES. INCRSD DEEP LYR SHEAR AND STEEPENING MID LVL LAPSE
RATES WITH THAT FEATURE WL BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT FOR AN ARRAY OF
SEVERE WEATHER...BUT LIMITATIONS ARISE IN INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
AND BNDRY PLACEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN RELATION TO OUTFLOW
REINFORCEMENT FM THE SATURDAY SYSTEM.

AT ANY RATE...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE
REGION WITH THESE POSSIBILITIES AND LCL MENTION HAS BEEN CONTINUED
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE CONTINUED
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WITH
PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SWINGS THROUGH.

SYSTEM FINALLY EXITS MONDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY SFC HIGH PRES WL MAINTAIN VFR FOR THE TAF PD AFTR LCL AREAS OF
SHALLOW FOG MIX OUT THIS MRNG.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AS LOW PRES SPREADS SHWRS AND
TSTMS OVR THE UPR OH REGION. THE POTENTIAL WL CONT INTO MONDAY
WITH PASSAGE OF THAT SYSTEMS CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251448
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1048 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.
COLDER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE LATE MRNG UPDATE.

PREVIOUS...
SFC HIGH UNDER WNW FLOW ALOFT WL KP THE AREA DRY AND THROUGH TNGT.
THE COOL NR TERM TEMPS WERE FORECAST NR SREF MEANS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHWR AND TSTM CHCS WL INCRS THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SHRTWVS MOV
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SFC FRONTAL PLACEMENT UNDR INCRSG
...BUT MORE ZONAL FLOW WL BE CRITICAL FOR UPR OH VALLEY SVR
POTENTIAL. AT MOMENT...THE INITIAL CHC...ALBEIT SLGT...RESIDES
WITH PASSAGE OF A POTENTIAL MCS OR REMNANTS LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY
SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY...A TRAILING...AND MORE POTENT SHRTWV IS PROGGED OFF THE
GREAT LAKES. INCRSD DEEP LYR SHEAR AND STEEPENING MID LVL LAPSE
RATES WITH THAT FEATURE WL BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT FOR AN ARRAY OF
SEVERE WEATHER...BUT LIMITATIONS ARISE IN INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
AND BNDRY PLACEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN RELATION TO OUTFLOW
REINFORCEMENT FM THE SATURDAY SYSTEM.

AT ANY RATE...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE
REGION WITH THESE POSSIBILITIES AND LCL MENTION HAS BEEN CONTINUED
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE CONTINUED
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WITH
PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SWINGS THROUGH.

SYSTEM FINALLY EXITS MONDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY SFC HIGH PRES WL MAINTAIN VFR FOR THE TAF PD AFTR LCL AREAS OF
SHALLOW FOG MIX OUT THIS MRNG.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AS LOW PRES SPREADS SHWRS AND
TSTMS OVR THE UPR OH REGION. THE POTENTIAL WL CONT INTO MONDAY
WITH PASSAGE OF THAT SYSTEMS CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251118
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
718 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE POST DAWN UPDATE.

PREVIOUS...
SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY AND COMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEEKEND WEATHER WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES AND THE MOVEMENT AND LOCATION OF A
COMPLEX SURFACE BOUNDARY.

FLOW ALOFT EVENTUALLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL SATURDAY. THE FIRST UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL QUICKLY SWING THROUGH SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THE DETAILS BEGIN SATURDAY AND CARRY THROUGH FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...CLARIFYING THE DETAILS IS
AN ARDUOUS TASK. FOR CURRENT FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD SUNDAY AS
BEING THE BEST TIME TO SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY.
BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY...
EXPECT TO SEE MULTIPLE MCS DEVELOPMENT WHICH EVENTUALLY COULD PASS
THROUGH THE REGION. AGAIN...STILL NEED TO WORK OUT MANY OF THE
DETAILS.

MAY ALSO SEE STORMS DEVELOP SATURDAY. HOWEVER...CURRENT MODEL DATA
IS SHOWING LIMITED INSTABILITY AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
ADDITIONALLY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY SHOW A CAPPED
ATMOSPHERE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. 6KM SHEAR IS ABOVE 40KTS...BUT
WITH THE ABSENCE OF STRONG BUOYANCY AND HIGH CONVECTIVE TEMPS NOT
POSITIVE CONVECTION CAN GET STARTED. WOULD LEAN TOWARD ELEVATED
CONVECTION BUT EVEN MUCAPE VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE CONTINUED
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WITH
PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SWINGS THROUGH.

SYSTEM FINALLY EXITS MONDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY SFC HIGH PRES WL MAINTAIN VFR FOR THE TAF PD AFTR LCL AREAS OF
SHALLOW FOG MIX OUT THIS MRNG.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AS LOW PRES SPREADS SHWRS AND
TSTMS OVR THE UPR OH REGION. THE POTENTIAL WL CONT INTO MONDAY
WITH PASSAGE OF THAT SYSTEMS CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251118
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
718 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE POST DAWN UPDATE.

PREVIOUS...
SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY AND COMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEEKEND WEATHER WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES AND THE MOVEMENT AND LOCATION OF A
COMPLEX SURFACE BOUNDARY.

FLOW ALOFT EVENTUALLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL SATURDAY. THE FIRST UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL QUICKLY SWING THROUGH SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THE DETAILS BEGIN SATURDAY AND CARRY THROUGH FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...CLARIFYING THE DETAILS IS
AN ARDUOUS TASK. FOR CURRENT FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD SUNDAY AS
BEING THE BEST TIME TO SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY.
BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY...
EXPECT TO SEE MULTIPLE MCS DEVELOPMENT WHICH EVENTUALLY COULD PASS
THROUGH THE REGION. AGAIN...STILL NEED TO WORK OUT MANY OF THE
DETAILS.

MAY ALSO SEE STORMS DEVELOP SATURDAY. HOWEVER...CURRENT MODEL DATA
IS SHOWING LIMITED INSTABILITY AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
ADDITIONALLY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY SHOW A CAPPED
ATMOSPHERE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. 6KM SHEAR IS ABOVE 40KTS...BUT
WITH THE ABSENCE OF STRONG BUOYANCY AND HIGH CONVECTIVE TEMPS NOT
POSITIVE CONVECTION CAN GET STARTED. WOULD LEAN TOWARD ELEVATED
CONVECTION BUT EVEN MUCAPE VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE CONTINUED
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WITH
PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SWINGS THROUGH.

SYSTEM FINALLY EXITS MONDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY SFC HIGH PRES WL MAINTAIN VFR FOR THE TAF PD AFTR LCL AREAS OF
SHALLOW FOG MIX OUT THIS MRNG.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AS LOW PRES SPREADS SHWRS AND
TSTMS OVR THE UPR OH REGION. THE POTENTIAL WL CONT INTO MONDAY
WITH PASSAGE OF THAT SYSTEMS CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250820
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
420 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY AND COMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEEKEND WEATHER WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES AND THE MOVEMENT AND LOCATION OF A
COMPLEX SURFACE BOUNDARY.

FLOW ALOFT EVENTUALLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL SATURDAY. THE FIRST UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL QUICKLY SWING THROUGH SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THE DETAILS BEGIN SATURDAY AND CARRY THROUGH FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...CLARIFYING THE DETAILS IS
AN ARDUOUS TASK. FOR CURRENT FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD SUNDAY AS
BEING THE BEST TIME TO SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY.
BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY...
EXPECT TO SEE MULTIPLE MCS DEVELOPMENT WHICH EVENTUALLY COULD PASS
THROUGH THE REGION. AGAIN...STILL NEED TO WORK OUT MANY OF THE
DETAILS.

MAY ALSO SEE STORMS DEVELOP SATURDAY. HOWEVER...CURRENT MODEL DATA
IS SHOWING LIMITED INSTABILITY AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
ADDITIONALLY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY SHOW A CAPPED
ATMOSPHERE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. 6KM SHEAR IS ABOVE 40KTS...BUT
WITH THE ABSENCE OF STRONG BUOYANCY AND HIGH CONVECTIVE TEMPS NOT
POSITIVE CONVECTION CAN GET STARTED. WOULD LEAN TOWARD ELEVATED
CONVECTION BUT EVEN MUCAPE VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE CONTINUED
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WITH
PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SWINGS THROUGH.

SYSTEM FINALLY EXITS MONDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO THE
FORMATION OF MAINLY VALLEY FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK. THE TERMINALS THE
ARE TYPICALLY IMPACTED BY VALLEY FOG LOOK TO HAVE A SMALL WINDOW
OF IFR BUT WITH DEW POINTS CONTINUING TO DROP HAVE NOT PUSHED ANY
VSBY BELOW 2SM.

ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AS LOW PRES SPREADS SHWRS AND
TSTMS OVR THE UPR OH REGION. THE POTENTIAL WL CONT INTO MONDAY
WITH PASSAGE OF THAT SYSTEMS CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250820
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
420 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY AND COMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEEKEND WEATHER WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES AND THE MOVEMENT AND LOCATION OF A
COMPLEX SURFACE BOUNDARY.

FLOW ALOFT EVENTUALLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL SATURDAY. THE FIRST UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL QUICKLY SWING THROUGH SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THE DETAILS BEGIN SATURDAY AND CARRY THROUGH FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...CLARIFYING THE DETAILS IS
AN ARDUOUS TASK. FOR CURRENT FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD SUNDAY AS
BEING THE BEST TIME TO SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY.
BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY...
EXPECT TO SEE MULTIPLE MCS DEVELOPMENT WHICH EVENTUALLY COULD PASS
THROUGH THE REGION. AGAIN...STILL NEED TO WORK OUT MANY OF THE
DETAILS.

MAY ALSO SEE STORMS DEVELOP SATURDAY. HOWEVER...CURRENT MODEL DATA
IS SHOWING LIMITED INSTABILITY AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
ADDITIONALLY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY SHOW A CAPPED
ATMOSPHERE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. 6KM SHEAR IS ABOVE 40KTS...BUT
WITH THE ABSENCE OF STRONG BUOYANCY AND HIGH CONVECTIVE TEMPS NOT
POSITIVE CONVECTION CAN GET STARTED. WOULD LEAN TOWARD ELEVATED
CONVECTION BUT EVEN MUCAPE VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE CONTINUED
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WITH
PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SWINGS THROUGH.

SYSTEM FINALLY EXITS MONDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO THE
FORMATION OF MAINLY VALLEY FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK. THE TERMINALS THE
ARE TYPICALLY IMPACTED BY VALLEY FOG LOOK TO HAVE A SMALL WINDOW
OF IFR BUT WITH DEW POINTS CONTINUING TO DROP HAVE NOT PUSHED ANY
VSBY BELOW 2SM.

ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AS LOW PRES SPREADS SHWRS AND
TSTMS OVR THE UPR OH REGION. THE POTENTIAL WL CONT INTO MONDAY
WITH PASSAGE OF THAT SYSTEMS CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250557
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
157 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
NO CHANGES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY AND COMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEEKEND WEATHER WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES AND THE MOVEMENT AND LOCATION OF A
COMPLEX SURFACE BOUNDARY.

FLOW ALOFT EVENTUALLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL SATURDAY. THE FIRST UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL QUICKLY SWING THROUGH SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THE DETAILS BEGIN SATURDAY AND CARRY THROUGH FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...CLARIFYING THE DETAILS IS
AN ARDUOUS TASK. FOR CURRENT FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD SUNDAY AS
BEING THE BEST TIME TO SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY.
BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY...
EXPECT TO SEE MULTIPLE MCS DEVELOPMENT WHICH EVENTUALLY COULD PASS
THROUGH THE REGION. AGAIN...STILL NEED TO WORK OUT MANY OF THE
DETAILS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE CONTINUED
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WITH
PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SWINGS THROUGH.

SYSTEM FINALLY EXITS MONDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO THE
FORMATION OF MAINLY VALLEY FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK. THE TERMINALS THE
ARE TYPICALLY IMPACTED BY VALLEY FOG LOOK TO HAVE A SMALL WINDOW
OF IFR BUT WITH DEW POINTS CONTINUING TO DROP HAVE NOT PUSHED ANY
VSBY BELOW 2SM.

ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AS LOW PRES SPREADS SHWRS AND
TSTMS OVR THE UPR OH REGION. THE POTENTIAL WL CONT INTO MONDAY
WITH PASSAGE OF THAT SYSTEMS CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250557
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
157 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
NO CHANGES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY AND COMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEEKEND WEATHER WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES AND THE MOVEMENT AND LOCATION OF A
COMPLEX SURFACE BOUNDARY.

FLOW ALOFT EVENTUALLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL SATURDAY. THE FIRST UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL QUICKLY SWING THROUGH SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THE DETAILS BEGIN SATURDAY AND CARRY THROUGH FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...CLARIFYING THE DETAILS IS
AN ARDUOUS TASK. FOR CURRENT FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD SUNDAY AS
BEING THE BEST TIME TO SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY.
BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY...
EXPECT TO SEE MULTIPLE MCS DEVELOPMENT WHICH EVENTUALLY COULD PASS
THROUGH THE REGION. AGAIN...STILL NEED TO WORK OUT MANY OF THE
DETAILS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE CONTINUED
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WITH
PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SWINGS THROUGH.

SYSTEM FINALLY EXITS MONDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO THE
FORMATION OF MAINLY VALLEY FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK. THE TERMINALS THE
ARE TYPICALLY IMPACTED BY VALLEY FOG LOOK TO HAVE A SMALL WINDOW
OF IFR BUT WITH DEW POINTS CONTINUING TO DROP HAVE NOT PUSHED ANY
VSBY BELOW 2SM.

ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AS LOW PRES SPREADS SHWRS AND
TSTMS OVR THE UPR OH REGION. THE POTENTIAL WL CONT INTO MONDAY
WITH PASSAGE OF THAT SYSTEMS CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250506 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
106 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
NO CHANGES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY AND COMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEEKEND WEATHER WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES AND THE MOVEMENT AND LOCATION OF A
COMPLEX SURFACE BOUNDARY.

FLOW ALOFT EVENTUALLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL SATURDAY. THE FIRST UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL QUICKLY SWING THROUGH SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THE DETAILS BEGIN SATURDAY AND CARRY THROUGH FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...CLARIFYING THE DETAILS IS
AN ARDUOUS TASK. FOR CURRENT FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD SUNDAY AS
BEING THE BEST TIME TO SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY.
BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY...
EXPECT TO SEE MULTIPLE MCS DEVELOPMENT WHICH EVENTUALLY COULD PASS
THROUGH THE REGION. AGAIN...STILL NEED TO WORK OUT MANY OF THE
DETAILS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE CONTINUED
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WITH
PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SWINGS THROUGH.

SYSTEM FINALLY EXITS MONDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO THE
FORMATION OF VALLEY FOG TONIGHT. THE TERMINALS THE ARE TYPICALLY
IMPACTED BY VALLEY FOG COULD DROP IN VSBY TO 1/2 OR 1/4 SM. ATTM...LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AWAY FROM RIVER VALLEYS TONIGHT...SO
EXPECTING TERMINALS INCLUDING PIT TO HAVE LIGHT MVFR FOG RESTRICTIONS.

ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AS LOW PRES SPREADS SHWRS AND
TSTMS OVR THE UPR OH REGION. THE POTENTIAL WL CONT INTO MONDAY
WITH PASSAGE OF THAT SYSTEMS CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250506 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
106 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
NO CHANGES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY AND COMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEEKEND WEATHER WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES AND THE MOVEMENT AND LOCATION OF A
COMPLEX SURFACE BOUNDARY.

FLOW ALOFT EVENTUALLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL SATURDAY. THE FIRST UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL QUICKLY SWING THROUGH SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THE DETAILS BEGIN SATURDAY AND CARRY THROUGH FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...CLARIFYING THE DETAILS IS
AN ARDUOUS TASK. FOR CURRENT FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD SUNDAY AS
BEING THE BEST TIME TO SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY.
BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY...
EXPECT TO SEE MULTIPLE MCS DEVELOPMENT WHICH EVENTUALLY COULD PASS
THROUGH THE REGION. AGAIN...STILL NEED TO WORK OUT MANY OF THE
DETAILS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE CONTINUED
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WITH
PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SWINGS THROUGH.

SYSTEM FINALLY EXITS MONDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO THE
FORMATION OF VALLEY FOG TONIGHT. THE TERMINALS THE ARE TYPICALLY
IMPACTED BY VALLEY FOG COULD DROP IN VSBY TO 1/2 OR 1/4 SM. ATTM...LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AWAY FROM RIVER VALLEYS TONIGHT...SO
EXPECTING TERMINALS INCLUDING PIT TO HAVE LIGHT MVFR FOG RESTRICTIONS.

ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AS LOW PRES SPREADS SHWRS AND
TSTMS OVR THE UPR OH REGION. THE POTENTIAL WL CONT INTO MONDAY
WITH PASSAGE OF THAT SYSTEMS CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 242358
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
758 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION ON THE HEELS OF A
RATHER BRISK NORTHERLY FLOW. UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS REALLY FAIL TO
FALL OFF MUCH MORE THAN THEY ALREADY ARE IN NORTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA...SO WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DROP
DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY MORNING...EVEN WITH A DEARTH OF
WIND DURING THE PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING HOURS...THERMAL FREE
FALL IS NOT REALLY EXPECTED. THAT SAID...CURRENT RESIDENT
DEWPOINTS TO OUR NORTH ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S...SO
AREAWIDE MID 40 TO LOWER 50 DEGREE READINGS WILL BE FAIRLY
COMMON. THIS IS STILL FAR BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

FOR REFERENCE...THE RECORD LOW FOR TONIGHT...51F FROM 1953. WILL
BE EXTREMELY CLOSE TO THAT READING BY MORNING AT THE AIRPORT.
FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
A COMFORTABLE FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

MORE ZONAL FLOW IS PROJECTED BY SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRES
DIGGING TWD THE NRN PLNS. SWD DIPPING JET IS LIKELY TO INCRS DEEP
LYR SHEAR OVR THE REGION AND MAY SPPRT SVR TSTM CHCS SHOULD
TIMING/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS COOPERATE. FOR NOW...THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS TOUCHED THE UPR OH REGION WITH A SLGT
RISK...AND THAT SITUATION WL BE FURTHER EVALUATED DURING THE NXT
CPL OF DAYS AS CURRENT MDLS SUGGEST MRNG PASSAGE OF THE NECESSARY
SHRTWV SPPRT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PHASING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WITH A JAMES BAY LOW IS PROGGED
TO DVLP A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF OVR THE ERN CONUS. FOLLOWING SHWR
CHCS UNDR THE IMMEDIATE CROSSING OF THE MID LVL TROF AXIS...THE
TREND IS OF DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO THE
FORMATION OF VALLEY FOG TONIGHT. THE TERMINALS THE ARE TYPICALLY
IMPACTED BY VALLEY FOG COULD DROP IN VSBY TO 1/2 OR 1/4 SM. ATTM...LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AWAY FROM RIVER VALLEYS TONIGHT...SO
EXPECTING TERMINALS INCLUDING PIT TO HAVE LIGHT MVFR FOG RESTRICTIONS.

ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AS LOW PRES SPREADS SHWRS AND
TSTMS OVR THE UPR OH REGION. THE POTENTIAL WL CONT INTO MONDAY
WITH PASSAGE OF THAT SYSTEMS CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 242358
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
758 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION ON THE HEELS OF A
RATHER BRISK NORTHERLY FLOW. UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS REALLY FAIL TO
FALL OFF MUCH MORE THAN THEY ALREADY ARE IN NORTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA...SO WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DROP
DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY MORNING...EVEN WITH A DEARTH OF
WIND DURING THE PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING HOURS...THERMAL FREE
FALL IS NOT REALLY EXPECTED. THAT SAID...CURRENT RESIDENT
DEWPOINTS TO OUR NORTH ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S...SO
AREAWIDE MID 40 TO LOWER 50 DEGREE READINGS WILL BE FAIRLY
COMMON. THIS IS STILL FAR BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

FOR REFERENCE...THE RECORD LOW FOR TONIGHT...51F FROM 1953. WILL
BE EXTREMELY CLOSE TO THAT READING BY MORNING AT THE AIRPORT.
FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
A COMFORTABLE FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

MORE ZONAL FLOW IS PROJECTED BY SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRES
DIGGING TWD THE NRN PLNS. SWD DIPPING JET IS LIKELY TO INCRS DEEP
LYR SHEAR OVR THE REGION AND MAY SPPRT SVR TSTM CHCS SHOULD
TIMING/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS COOPERATE. FOR NOW...THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS TOUCHED THE UPR OH REGION WITH A SLGT
RISK...AND THAT SITUATION WL BE FURTHER EVALUATED DURING THE NXT
CPL OF DAYS AS CURRENT MDLS SUGGEST MRNG PASSAGE OF THE NECESSARY
SHRTWV SPPRT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PHASING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WITH A JAMES BAY LOW IS PROGGED
TO DVLP A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF OVR THE ERN CONUS. FOLLOWING SHWR
CHCS UNDR THE IMMEDIATE CROSSING OF THE MID LVL TROF AXIS...THE
TREND IS OF DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO THE
FORMATION OF VALLEY FOG TONIGHT. THE TERMINALS THE ARE TYPICALLY
IMPACTED BY VALLEY FOG COULD DROP IN VSBY TO 1/2 OR 1/4 SM. ATTM...LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AWAY FROM RIVER VALLEYS TONIGHT...SO
EXPECTING TERMINALS INCLUDING PIT TO HAVE LIGHT MVFR FOG RESTRICTIONS.

ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AS LOW PRES SPREADS SHWRS AND
TSTMS OVR THE UPR OH REGION. THE POTENTIAL WL CONT INTO MONDAY
WITH PASSAGE OF THAT SYSTEMS CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 242147
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
547 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION ON THE HEELS OF A
RATHER BRISK NORTHERLY FLOW. UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS REALLY FAIL TO
FALL OFF MUCH MORE THAN THEY ALREADY ARE IN NORTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA...SO WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DROP
DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY MORNING...EVEN WITH A DEARTH OF
WIND DURING THE PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING HOURS...THERMAL FREE
FALL IS NOT REALLY EXPECTED. THAT SAID...CURRENT RESIDENT
DEWPOINTS TO OUR NORTH ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S...SO
AREAWIDE MID 40 TO LOWER 50 DEGREE READINGS WILL BE FAIRLY
COMMON. THIS IS STILL FAR BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

FOR REFERENCE...THE RECORD LOW FOR TONIGHT...51F FROM 1953. WILL
BE EXTREMELY CLOSE TO THAT READING BY MORNING AT THE AIRPORT.
FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
A COMFORTABLE FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

MORE ZONAL FLOW IS PROJECTED BY SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRES
DIGGING TWD THE NRN PLNS. SWD DIPPING JET IS LIKELY TO INCRS DEEP
LYR SHEAR OVR THE REGION AND MAY SPPRT SVR TSTM CHCS SHOULD
TIMING/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS COOPERATE. FOR NOW...THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS TOUCHED THE UPR OH REGION WITH A SLGT
RISK...AND THAT SITUATION WL BE FURTHER EVALUATED DURING THE NXT
CPL OF DAYS AS CURRENT MDLS SUGGEST MRNG PASSAGE OF THE NECESSARY
SHRTWV SPPRT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PHASING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WITH A JAMES BAY LOW IS PROGGED
TO DVLP A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF OVR THE ERN CONUS. FOLLOWING SHWR
CHCS UNDR THE IMMEDIATE CROSSING OF THE MID LVL TROF AXIS...THE
TREND IS OF DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DESPITE EXTENSIVE STRATOCU DVLPMNT THIS AFTN...VFR CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PD WITH DRY ADVCTN AND SBSDNCE UNDR
BLDG HIGH PRES.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AS LOW PRES SPREADS SHWRS AND
TSTMS OVR THE UPR OH REGION. THE POTENTIAL WL CONT INTO MONDAY
WITH PASSAGE OF THAT SYSTEMS CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241637
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1237 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE AFTN UPDATE AS BLDG SFC HIGH
UNDR UPR TROFG SHUNTS COOLER AND DRIER AIR OVR THE REGION...AND
PUSHES LINGERING PCPN CHCS IN VCNTY OF MGW SWD.

TEMPS WERE FORECAST NRLY 10 DEG UNDR THE AVGS GIVEN THE ONGOING
COLD...DRY ADVCTN. TWEAKS WERE COMPLETED USING NAM AND BIAS
CORRECTED GFS MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
A COMFORTABLE FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

MORE ZONAL FLOW IS PROJECTED BY SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRES
DIGGING TWD THE NRN PLNS. SWD DIPPING JET IS LIKELY TO INCRS DEEP
LYR SHEAR OVR THE REGION AND MAY SPPRT SVR TSTM CHCS SHOULD
TIMING/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS COOPERATE. FOR NOW...THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS TOUCHED THE UPR OH REGION WITH A SLGT
RISK...AND THAT SITUATION WL BE FURTHER EVALUATED DURING THE NXT
CPL OF DAYS AS CURRENT MDLS SUGGEST MRNG PASSAGE OF THE NECESSARY
SHRTWV SPPRT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PHASING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WITH A JAMES BAY LOW IS PROGGED
TO DVLP A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF OVR THE ERN CONUS. FOLLOWING SHWR
CHCS UNDR THE IMMEDIATE CROSSING OF THE MID LVL TROF AXIS...THE
TREND IS OF DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DESPITE EXTENSIVE STRATOCU DVLPMNT THIS AFTN...VFR CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PD WITH DRY ADVCTN AND SBSDNCE UNDR
BLDG HIGH PRES.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AS LOW PRES SPREADS SHWRS AND
TSTMS OVR THE UPR OH REGION. THE POTENTIAL WL CONT INTO MONDAY
WITH PASSAGE OF THAT SYSTEMS CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241637
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1237 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE AFTN UPDATE AS BLDG SFC HIGH
UNDR UPR TROFG SHUNTS COOLER AND DRIER AIR OVR THE REGION...AND
PUSHES LINGERING PCPN CHCS IN VCNTY OF MGW SWD.

TEMPS WERE FORECAST NRLY 10 DEG UNDR THE AVGS GIVEN THE ONGOING
COLD...DRY ADVCTN. TWEAKS WERE COMPLETED USING NAM AND BIAS
CORRECTED GFS MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
A COMFORTABLE FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

MORE ZONAL FLOW IS PROJECTED BY SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRES
DIGGING TWD THE NRN PLNS. SWD DIPPING JET IS LIKELY TO INCRS DEEP
LYR SHEAR OVR THE REGION AND MAY SPPRT SVR TSTM CHCS SHOULD
TIMING/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS COOPERATE. FOR NOW...THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS TOUCHED THE UPR OH REGION WITH A SLGT
RISK...AND THAT SITUATION WL BE FURTHER EVALUATED DURING THE NXT
CPL OF DAYS AS CURRENT MDLS SUGGEST MRNG PASSAGE OF THE NECESSARY
SHRTWV SPPRT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PHASING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WITH A JAMES BAY LOW IS PROGGED
TO DVLP A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF OVR THE ERN CONUS. FOLLOWING SHWR
CHCS UNDR THE IMMEDIATE CROSSING OF THE MID LVL TROF AXIS...THE
TREND IS OF DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DESPITE EXTENSIVE STRATOCU DVLPMNT THIS AFTN...VFR CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PD WITH DRY ADVCTN AND SBSDNCE UNDR
BLDG HIGH PRES.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AS LOW PRES SPREADS SHWRS AND
TSTMS OVR THE UPR OH REGION. THE POTENTIAL WL CONT INTO MONDAY
WITH PASSAGE OF THAT SYSTEMS CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241421
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1021 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE LATE MRNG UPDATE AS BLDG SFC
HIGH UNDR UPR TROFG SHUNTS COOLER AND DRIER AIR OVR THE
REGION...AND PUSHES LINGERING PCPN CHCS IN VCNTY OF MGW SWD.

TEMPS WERE FORECAST NRLY 10 DEG UNDR THE AVGS GIVEN COLD ADVCTN
AND STRATOCU EXPECTATIONS WITH LOW...BUT CAPPED CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
A COMFORTABLE FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

MORE ZONAL FLOW IS PROJECTED BY SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRES
DIGGING TWD THE NRN PLNS. SWD DIPPING JET IS LIKELY TO INCRS DEEP
LYR SHEAR OVR THE REGION AND MAY SPPRT SVR TSTM CHCS SHOULD
TIMING/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS COOPERATE. FOR NOW...THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS TOUCHED THE UPR OH REGION WITH A SLGT
RISK...AND THAT SITUATION WL BE FURTHER EVALUATED DURING THE NXT
24 HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PHASING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WITH A JAMES BAY LOW IS PROGGED
TO DVLP A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF OVR THE ERN CONUS. FOLLOWING SHWR
CHCS UNDR THE IMMEDIATE CROSSING OF THE MID LVL TROF AXIS...THE
TREND IS OF DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR AND LOW END VFR STRATOCU DVLPMNT IS ANTICIPATED TDA AS COLD
AVCTN CONTS OVR THE UPR OH REGION. DRY ADVCTN AND WEAKENING FLOW
BY LATE DAY WL SPPRT MORE DECISIVE VFR...WHICH WL CONT THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS LOW PRES
SPREADS SHWRS AND TSTMS OVR THE UPR OH REGION. THE POTENTIAL WL
CONT INTO MONDAY WITH PASSAGE OF THAT SYSTEMS CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241421
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1021 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE LATE MRNG UPDATE AS BLDG SFC
HIGH UNDR UPR TROFG SHUNTS COOLER AND DRIER AIR OVR THE
REGION...AND PUSHES LINGERING PCPN CHCS IN VCNTY OF MGW SWD.

TEMPS WERE FORECAST NRLY 10 DEG UNDR THE AVGS GIVEN COLD ADVCTN
AND STRATOCU EXPECTATIONS WITH LOW...BUT CAPPED CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
A COMFORTABLE FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

MORE ZONAL FLOW IS PROJECTED BY SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRES
DIGGING TWD THE NRN PLNS. SWD DIPPING JET IS LIKELY TO INCRS DEEP
LYR SHEAR OVR THE REGION AND MAY SPPRT SVR TSTM CHCS SHOULD
TIMING/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS COOPERATE. FOR NOW...THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS TOUCHED THE UPR OH REGION WITH A SLGT
RISK...AND THAT SITUATION WL BE FURTHER EVALUATED DURING THE NXT
24 HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PHASING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WITH A JAMES BAY LOW IS PROGGED
TO DVLP A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF OVR THE ERN CONUS. FOLLOWING SHWR
CHCS UNDR THE IMMEDIATE CROSSING OF THE MID LVL TROF AXIS...THE
TREND IS OF DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR AND LOW END VFR STRATOCU DVLPMNT IS ANTICIPATED TDA AS COLD
AVCTN CONTS OVR THE UPR OH REGION. DRY ADVCTN AND WEAKENING FLOW
BY LATE DAY WL SPPRT MORE DECISIVE VFR...WHICH WL CONT THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS LOW PRES
SPREADS SHWRS AND TSTMS OVR THE UPR OH REGION. THE POTENTIAL WL
CONT INTO MONDAY WITH PASSAGE OF THAT SYSTEMS CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241157
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
757 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE POST DAWN UPDATE AS BLDG SFC
HIGH UNDR UPR TROFG SHUNTS COOLER AND DRIER AIR OVR THE
REGION...AND PUSHES LINGERING PCPN CHCS IN VCNTY OF MGW SWD.

TEMPS WERE FORECAST NRLY 10 DEG UNDR THE AVGS GIVEN COLD ADVCTN
AND STRATOCU EXPECTATIONS WITH LOW...BUT CAPPED CONVECTIVE
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE A COMFORTABLE FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

MORE ZONAL FLOW IS PROJECTED BY SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRES
DIGGING TWD THE NRN PLNS. SWD DIPPING JET IS LIKELY TO INCRS DEEP
LYR SHEAR OVR THE REGION AND CONT TO SPPRT TSTM CHCS SHOULD
TIMING/INSTRABILITY PARAMETERS COOPERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PHASING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WITH A JAMES BAY LOW IS
PROGGED TO DVLP A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF OVR THE ERN CONUS. GENLY DRY
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE THUS THE TREND FOR THE EXTENDED PD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR AND LOW END VFR STRATOCU DVLPMNT IS ANTICIPATED TDA AS COLD
AVCTN CONTS OVR THE UPR OH REGION. DRY ADVCTN AND WEAKENING FLOW
BY LATE DAY WL SPPRT MORE DECISIVE VFR...WHICH WL CONT THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS LOW PRES
SPREADS SHWRS AND TSTMS OVR THE UPR OH REGION. THE POTENTIAL WL
CONT INTO MONDAY WITH PASSAGE OF THAT SYSTEMS CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241157
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
757 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE POST DAWN UPDATE AS BLDG SFC
HIGH UNDR UPR TROFG SHUNTS COOLER AND DRIER AIR OVR THE
REGION...AND PUSHES LINGERING PCPN CHCS IN VCNTY OF MGW SWD.

TEMPS WERE FORECAST NRLY 10 DEG UNDR THE AVGS GIVEN COLD ADVCTN
AND STRATOCU EXPECTATIONS WITH LOW...BUT CAPPED CONVECTIVE
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE A COMFORTABLE FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

MORE ZONAL FLOW IS PROJECTED BY SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRES
DIGGING TWD THE NRN PLNS. SWD DIPPING JET IS LIKELY TO INCRS DEEP
LYR SHEAR OVR THE REGION AND CONT TO SPPRT TSTM CHCS SHOULD
TIMING/INSTRABILITY PARAMETERS COOPERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PHASING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WITH A JAMES BAY LOW IS
PROGGED TO DVLP A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF OVR THE ERN CONUS. GENLY DRY
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE THUS THE TREND FOR THE EXTENDED PD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR AND LOW END VFR STRATOCU DVLPMNT IS ANTICIPATED TDA AS COLD
AVCTN CONTS OVR THE UPR OH REGION. DRY ADVCTN AND WEAKENING FLOW
BY LATE DAY WL SPPRT MORE DECISIVE VFR...WHICH WL CONT THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS LOW PRES
SPREADS SHWRS AND TSTMS OVR THE UPR OH REGION. THE POTENTIAL WL
CONT INTO MONDAY WITH PASSAGE OF THAT SYSTEMS CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240820
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
420 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TODAY AND A SCATTERED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE IN
THE FAR SOUTH. DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. A LARGE AREA
OF STRATOCU HAS FILLED IN OVER THE AREA WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT.
DRIER AIR IS NUDGING ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER FOR A TIME THIS MORNING.
CLOUD FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING QUITE
A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN CLOUD COVER IN THE NORTHERN HALF COMPARED TO
THAT OVER THE SOUTH. SOUNDINGS WANT TO ALLOW FOR SOME DRYING
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING...THEN QUICKLY RE-SATURATE
THE LOWER LEVELS BY AFTERNOON. IF THE SOUNDINGS ARE IN LINE...IT
WILL BE PRETTY CLOUDY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
ALSO EFFECT TEMPS FOR THE DAY.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS LINGERING
OVER THE FAR SOUTH AND RIDGES INTO THE AFTERNOON...WAITING FOR A
PUSH FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WITH THE MAIN FRONT STALLED OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND THE DEWPOINT BOUNDARY TRAPPED NEAR THE RIDGES...
MODELS POOL MOISTURE ALONG THE RIDGES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
THIS SETUP IS ALLOWING FOR MODEST INSTABILITY IN THESE
LOCATIONS...WHICH WILL REQUIRE THE INCLUSION OF POPS INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WORKS WELL WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SATURATION IN
THE LOWER LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY EVACUATE THE MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTH DURING
THE EVENING. THE RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL END AND A VERY COMFORTABLE
NIGHT WILL BE ON TAP.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
A COMFORTABLE FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. AS THE FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS REMAINS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST...FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS WILL ALLOW HUMIDITY TO RISE ON SATURDAY. WITH THE LIFT ALOFT
AND THE INCREASED INSTABILITY...SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT...STORM ACTIVITY MAY BE
SUPPRESSED BY CLOUD COVER...BUT WILL LEAVE IN THE MENTION...
PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL SATURDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT AN MCS DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY HEADING EASTWARD SATURDAY
NIGHT. IF THIS COMPLEX DOES DEVELOP...STILL A BIT EARLY TO
DETERMINE ITS EXACT TRACK...IT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THIS
WOULD MEAN THAT THE AREA COULD SEE ACTIVITY FROM THIS COMPLEX
SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL THE MCS AND SPREAD OUT
ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE STALLED SURFACE FRONT
SUNDAY...MEANING A GOOD CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.

SHOWER THREAT CONTINUES ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
APPEARS MVFR STRATUS IN COLD ADVECTION WILL HANG ON OVERNIGHT IN LOW
LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TOWARD DAYBREAK AND
BECOME BKN VFR AFTER 13-15Z. WITH COLDER TEMPS ALOFT EXPECT VFR BKN
CIGS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WHEN SUBSIDENCE WITH SURFACE HIGH SETTLING
ACROSS REGION WILL CLEAR SKIES. NEAR CALM AND CLEAR TONIGHT.


OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE POSSIBLE
RESTRICTIONS MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240820
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
420 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TODAY AND A SCATTERED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE IN
THE FAR SOUTH. DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. A LARGE AREA
OF STRATOCU HAS FILLED IN OVER THE AREA WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT.
DRIER AIR IS NUDGING ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER FOR A TIME THIS MORNING.
CLOUD FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING QUITE
A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN CLOUD COVER IN THE NORTHERN HALF COMPARED TO
THAT OVER THE SOUTH. SOUNDINGS WANT TO ALLOW FOR SOME DRYING
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING...THEN QUICKLY RE-SATURATE
THE LOWER LEVELS BY AFTERNOON. IF THE SOUNDINGS ARE IN LINE...IT
WILL BE PRETTY CLOUDY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
ALSO EFFECT TEMPS FOR THE DAY.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS LINGERING
OVER THE FAR SOUTH AND RIDGES INTO THE AFTERNOON...WAITING FOR A
PUSH FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WITH THE MAIN FRONT STALLED OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND THE DEWPOINT BOUNDARY TRAPPED NEAR THE RIDGES...
MODELS POOL MOISTURE ALONG THE RIDGES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
THIS SETUP IS ALLOWING FOR MODEST INSTABILITY IN THESE
LOCATIONS...WHICH WILL REQUIRE THE INCLUSION OF POPS INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WORKS WELL WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SATURATION IN
THE LOWER LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY EVACUATE THE MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTH DURING
THE EVENING. THE RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL END AND A VERY COMFORTABLE
NIGHT WILL BE ON TAP.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
A COMFORTABLE FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. AS THE FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS REMAINS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST...FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS WILL ALLOW HUMIDITY TO RISE ON SATURDAY. WITH THE LIFT ALOFT
AND THE INCREASED INSTABILITY...SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT...STORM ACTIVITY MAY BE
SUPPRESSED BY CLOUD COVER...BUT WILL LEAVE IN THE MENTION...
PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL SATURDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT AN MCS DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY HEADING EASTWARD SATURDAY
NIGHT. IF THIS COMPLEX DOES DEVELOP...STILL A BIT EARLY TO
DETERMINE ITS EXACT TRACK...IT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THIS
WOULD MEAN THAT THE AREA COULD SEE ACTIVITY FROM THIS COMPLEX
SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL THE MCS AND SPREAD OUT
ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE STALLED SURFACE FRONT
SUNDAY...MEANING A GOOD CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.

SHOWER THREAT CONTINUES ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
APPEARS MVFR STRATUS IN COLD ADVECTION WILL HANG ON OVERNIGHT IN LOW
LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TOWARD DAYBREAK AND
BECOME BKN VFR AFTER 13-15Z. WITH COLDER TEMPS ALOFT EXPECT VFR BKN
CIGS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WHEN SUBSIDENCE WITH SURFACE HIGH SETTLING
ACROSS REGION WILL CLEAR SKIES. NEAR CALM AND CLEAR TONIGHT.


OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE POSSIBLE
RESTRICTIONS MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240529 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
128 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SCATTERED SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SOUTH TODAY...AS
A COLD FRONT GETS HUNG UP IN THE RIDGES. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER AND
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE TRAILING
DEWPOINT BOUNDARY IS HUNG UP OVER THE FAR SOUTH. A LARGE AREA OF
STRATOCU HAS FILLED IN OVER THE AREA WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT. IT
APPEARS THAT THESE LOWER CLOUDS WILL STUBBORNLY HOLD ON THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. DRIER AIR WILL NUDGE ITS
WAY IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER TOWARD THE SOUTH. CLOUD FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING QUITE A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN CLOUD
COVER IN THE NORTHERN HALF COMPARED TO THAT OVER THE SOUTH.
SOUNDINGS WANT TO ALLOW FOR DRYING ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
DURING THE MORNING...THEN QUICKLY RE-SATURATE THE LOWER LEVELS BY
AFTERNOON. IF THE SOUNDINGS ARE IN LINE...IT WILL BE PRETTY CLOUDY
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO EFFECT
TEMPS FOR THE DAY.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS LINGERING
OVER THE FAR SOUTH AND RIDGES INTO THE AFTERNOON...WAITING FOR A
PUSH FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WITH THE MAIN FRONT STALLED OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND THE DEWPOINT BOUNDARY TRAPPED NEAR THE RIDGES...
MODELS POOL MOISTURE ALONG THE RIDGES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
THIS SETUP IS ALLOWING FOR MODEST INSTABILITY IN THESE
LOCATIONS...WHICH WILL REQUIRE THE INCLUSION OF POPS INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WORKS WELL WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SATURATION IN
THE LOWER LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY EVACUATE THE MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTH DURING
THE EVENING. THE RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL END AND A VERY COMFORTABLE
NIGHT WILL BE ON TAP.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
A COMFORTABLE FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. AS THE FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS REMAINS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST...FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS WILL ALLOW HUMIDITY TO RISE ON SATURDAY. WITH THE LIFT ALOFT
AND THE INCREASED INSTABILITY...SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT...STORM ACTIVITY MAY BE
SUPPRESSED BY CLOUD COVER...BUT WILL LEAVE IN THE MENTION...
PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL SATURDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT AN MCS DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY HEADING EASTWARD SATURDAY
NIGHT. IF THIS COMPLEX DOES DEVELOP...STILL A BIT EARLY TO
DETERMINE ITS EXACT TRACK...IT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THIS
WOULD MEAN THAT THE AREA COULD SEE ACTIVITY FROM THIS COMPLEX
SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL THE MCS AND SPREAD OUT
ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE STALLED SURFACE FRONT
SUNDAY...MEANING A GOOD CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.

SHOWER THREAT CONTINUES ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
APPEARS MVFR STRATUS IN COLD ADVECTION WILL HANG ON OVERNIGHT IN LOW
LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TOWARD DAYBREAK AND
BECOME BKN VFR AFTER 13-15Z. WITH COLDER TEMPS ALOFT EXPECT VFR BKN
CIGS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WHEN SUBSIDENCE WITH SURFACE HIGH SETTLING
ACROSS REGION WILL CLEAR SKIES. NEAR CALM AND CLEAR TONIGHT.


OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE POSSIBLE
RESTRICTIONS MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240529 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
128 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SCATTERED SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SOUTH TODAY...AS
A COLD FRONT GETS HUNG UP IN THE RIDGES. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER AND
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE TRAILING
DEWPOINT BOUNDARY IS HUNG UP OVER THE FAR SOUTH. A LARGE AREA OF
STRATOCU HAS FILLED IN OVER THE AREA WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT. IT
APPEARS THAT THESE LOWER CLOUDS WILL STUBBORNLY HOLD ON THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. DRIER AIR WILL NUDGE ITS
WAY IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER TOWARD THE SOUTH. CLOUD FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING QUITE A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN CLOUD
COVER IN THE NORTHERN HALF COMPARED TO THAT OVER THE SOUTH.
SOUNDINGS WANT TO ALLOW FOR DRYING ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
DURING THE MORNING...THEN QUICKLY RE-SATURATE THE LOWER LEVELS BY
AFTERNOON. IF THE SOUNDINGS ARE IN LINE...IT WILL BE PRETTY CLOUDY
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO EFFECT
TEMPS FOR THE DAY.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS LINGERING
OVER THE FAR SOUTH AND RIDGES INTO THE AFTERNOON...WAITING FOR A
PUSH FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WITH THE MAIN FRONT STALLED OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND THE DEWPOINT BOUNDARY TRAPPED NEAR THE RIDGES...
MODELS POOL MOISTURE ALONG THE RIDGES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
THIS SETUP IS ALLOWING FOR MODEST INSTABILITY IN THESE
LOCATIONS...WHICH WILL REQUIRE THE INCLUSION OF POPS INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WORKS WELL WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SATURATION IN
THE LOWER LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY EVACUATE THE MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTH DURING
THE EVENING. THE RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL END AND A VERY COMFORTABLE
NIGHT WILL BE ON TAP.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
A COMFORTABLE FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. AS THE FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS REMAINS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST...FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS WILL ALLOW HUMIDITY TO RISE ON SATURDAY. WITH THE LIFT ALOFT
AND THE INCREASED INSTABILITY...SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT...STORM ACTIVITY MAY BE
SUPPRESSED BY CLOUD COVER...BUT WILL LEAVE IN THE MENTION...
PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL SATURDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT AN MCS DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY HEADING EASTWARD SATURDAY
NIGHT. IF THIS COMPLEX DOES DEVELOP...STILL A BIT EARLY TO
DETERMINE ITS EXACT TRACK...IT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THIS
WOULD MEAN THAT THE AREA COULD SEE ACTIVITY FROM THIS COMPLEX
SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL THE MCS AND SPREAD OUT
ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE STALLED SURFACE FRONT
SUNDAY...MEANING A GOOD CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.

SHOWER THREAT CONTINUES ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
APPEARS MVFR STRATUS IN COLD ADVECTION WILL HANG ON OVERNIGHT IN LOW
LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TOWARD DAYBREAK AND
BECOME BKN VFR AFTER 13-15Z. WITH COLDER TEMPS ALOFT EXPECT VFR BKN
CIGS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WHEN SUBSIDENCE WITH SURFACE HIGH SETTLING
ACROSS REGION WILL CLEAR SKIES. NEAR CALM AND CLEAR TONIGHT.


OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE POSSIBLE
RESTRICTIONS MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240504 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
104 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SCATTERED SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SOUTH TODAY...AS
A COLD FRONT GETS HUNG UP IN THE RIDGES. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER AND
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE TRAILING
DEWPOINT BOUNDARY IS HUNG UP OVER THE FAR SOUTH. A LARGE AREA OF
STRATOCU HAS FILLED IN OVER THE AREA WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT. IT
APPEARS THAT THESE LOWER CLOUDS WILL STUBBORNLY HOLD ON THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. DRIER AIR WILL NUDGE ITS
WAY IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER TOWARD THE SOUTH. CLOUD FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING QUITE A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN CLOUD
COVER IN THE NORTHERN HALF COMPARED TO THAT OVER THE SOUTH.
SOUNDINGS WANT TO ALLOW FOR DRYING ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
DURING THE MORNING...THEN QUICKLY RE-SATURATE THE LOWER LEVELS BY
AFTERNOON. IF THE SOUNDINGS ARE IN LINE...IT WILL BE PRETTY CLOUDY
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO EFFECT
TEMPS FOR THE DAY.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS LINGERING
OVER THE FAR SOUTH AND RIDGES INTO THE AFTERNOON...WAITING FOR A
PUSH FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WITH THE MAIN FRONT STALLED OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND THE DEWPOINT BOUNDARY TRAPPED NEAR THE RIDGES...
MODELS POOL MOISTURE ALONG THE RIDGES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
THIS SETUP IS ALLOWING FOR MODEST INSTABILITY IN THESE
LOCATIONS...WHICH WILL REQUIRE THE INCLUSION OF POPS INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WORKS WELL WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SATURATION IN
THE LOWER LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY EVACUATE THE MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTH DURING
THE EVENING. THE RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL END AND A VERY COMFORTABLE
NIGHT WILL BE ON TAP.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
A COMFORTABLE FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. AS THE FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS REMAINS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST...FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS WILL ALLOW HUMIDITY TO RISE ON SATURDAY. WITH THE LIFT ALOFT
AND THE INCREASED INSTABILITY...SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT...STORM ACTIVITY MAY BE
SUPPRESSED BY CLOUD COVER...BUT WILL LEAVE IN THE MENTION...
PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL SATURDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT AN MCS DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY HEADING EASTWARD SATURDAY
NIGHT. IF THIS COMPLEX DOES DEVELOP...STILL A BIT EARLY TO
DETERMINE ITS EXACT TRACK...IT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THIS
WOULD MEAN THAT THE AREA COULD SEE ACTIVITY FROM THIS COMPLEX
SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL THE MCS AND SPREAD OUT
ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE STALLED SURFACE FRONT
SUNDAY...MEANING A GOOD CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.

SHOWER THREAT CONTINUES ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST TONIGHT AS THE FRONT HAS JUST ABOUT
PUSHED THROUGH ALL TERMINALS NEARING 00Z. DEWPOINTS ARE FALLING
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS DEVELOPED SOME
STRATOCU IN THE WAKE. SATELLITE IMAGERY OFFERS A PRETTY RAGGED
DEPICTION OF THE CLOUD DECK THAT IS FAR FROM UNIFORM. ALTHOUGH
MANY OF THE SITES CIGS WILL BOUNCE TONIGHT...THE OVERALL TREND IS
TO DROP CIGS INTO THE MVFR RANGE WITH A FEW CROSSING IFR
THRESHOLDS.

THURS ANY STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO A SCT TO BKN CLOUD DECK NEARING
5KFT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THERE ON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS WILL COME LATER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240504 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
104 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SCATTERED SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SOUTH TODAY...AS
A COLD FRONT GETS HUNG UP IN THE RIDGES. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER AND
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE TRAILING
DEWPOINT BOUNDARY IS HUNG UP OVER THE FAR SOUTH. A LARGE AREA OF
STRATOCU HAS FILLED IN OVER THE AREA WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT. IT
APPEARS THAT THESE LOWER CLOUDS WILL STUBBORNLY HOLD ON THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. DRIER AIR WILL NUDGE ITS
WAY IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER TOWARD THE SOUTH. CLOUD FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING QUITE A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN CLOUD
COVER IN THE NORTHERN HALF COMPARED TO THAT OVER THE SOUTH.
SOUNDINGS WANT TO ALLOW FOR DRYING ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
DURING THE MORNING...THEN QUICKLY RE-SATURATE THE LOWER LEVELS BY
AFTERNOON. IF THE SOUNDINGS ARE IN LINE...IT WILL BE PRETTY CLOUDY
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO EFFECT
TEMPS FOR THE DAY.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS LINGERING
OVER THE FAR SOUTH AND RIDGES INTO THE AFTERNOON...WAITING FOR A
PUSH FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WITH THE MAIN FRONT STALLED OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND THE DEWPOINT BOUNDARY TRAPPED NEAR THE RIDGES...
MODELS POOL MOISTURE ALONG THE RIDGES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
THIS SETUP IS ALLOWING FOR MODEST INSTABILITY IN THESE
LOCATIONS...WHICH WILL REQUIRE THE INCLUSION OF POPS INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WORKS WELL WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SATURATION IN
THE LOWER LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY EVACUATE THE MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTH DURING
THE EVENING. THE RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL END AND A VERY COMFORTABLE
NIGHT WILL BE ON TAP.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
A COMFORTABLE FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. AS THE FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS REMAINS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST...FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS WILL ALLOW HUMIDITY TO RISE ON SATURDAY. WITH THE LIFT ALOFT
AND THE INCREASED INSTABILITY...SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT...STORM ACTIVITY MAY BE
SUPPRESSED BY CLOUD COVER...BUT WILL LEAVE IN THE MENTION...
PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL SATURDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT AN MCS DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY HEADING EASTWARD SATURDAY
NIGHT. IF THIS COMPLEX DOES DEVELOP...STILL A BIT EARLY TO
DETERMINE ITS EXACT TRACK...IT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THIS
WOULD MEAN THAT THE AREA COULD SEE ACTIVITY FROM THIS COMPLEX
SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL THE MCS AND SPREAD OUT
ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE STALLED SURFACE FRONT
SUNDAY...MEANING A GOOD CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.

SHOWER THREAT CONTINUES ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST TONIGHT AS THE FRONT HAS JUST ABOUT
PUSHED THROUGH ALL TERMINALS NEARING 00Z. DEWPOINTS ARE FALLING
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS DEVELOPED SOME
STRATOCU IN THE WAKE. SATELLITE IMAGERY OFFERS A PRETTY RAGGED
DEPICTION OF THE CLOUD DECK THAT IS FAR FROM UNIFORM. ALTHOUGH
MANY OF THE SITES CIGS WILL BOUNCE TONIGHT...THE OVERALL TREND IS
TO DROP CIGS INTO THE MVFR RANGE WITH A FEW CROSSING IFR
THRESHOLDS.

THURS ANY STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO A SCT TO BKN CLOUD DECK NEARING
5KFT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THERE ON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS WILL COME LATER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240114
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
914 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH WITH PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED TO REMOVE ALL POPS BEHIND THE ADVANCING DEWPOINT
BOUNDARY...AND ALSO TO REDUCE THEM AHEAD OF IT. ONLY A FEW SHRA
NOW LEFT AS MANY OF THEM DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. DO THINK THIS BOUNDARY LOSES ITS PUSH OVERNIGHT AS THE
LOWER LEVELS STABILIZE...SO WILL HANG ON TO A VERY LOW POP IN THE
SOUTHEAST CWA OVERNIGHT. SKY GRIDS ARE TRICKY...THINK AREA TO THE
SOUTH WILL SEE AN INCREASE WHILE THE NORTHWEST WILL GET A LATE
DECREASE WITH ADVANCE OF DRIER AIR. FORMATION OF STRATOCU PATCHES
POSSIBLE PRETTY MUCH ANYWHERE OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPS LOOKED
REASONABLE AND NO CHANGE THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LINGERING SLGT...TO CHC NMBRS WERE RETAINED FOR AREAS S AND E OF
PIT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY GIVEN THE PROG OF ANOTHER SHRTWV ACRS
THE STABILIZING UPR OH REGION.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WL BE ADVECTING OVR THE ENTIRE REGION
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PD. TEMPS WERE FORECAST CLOSER TO BIAS
CORRECTED GFS MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
MODELS EXPLORING SOME DIFFERENT OPTIONS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE REFINED ONCE MODEL RUN TO RUN BECOMES
MORE CONSISTENT.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AND MUCH COOLER AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST TONIGHT AS THE FRONT HAS JUST ABOUT
PUSHED THROUGH ALL TERMINALS NEARING 00Z. DEWPOINTS ARE FALLING
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS DEVELOPED SOME
STRATOCU IN THE WAKE. SATELLITE IMAGERY OFFERS A PRETTY RAGGED
DEPICTION OF THE CLOUD DECK THAT IS FAR FROM UNIFORM. ALTHOUGH
MANY OF THE SITES CIGS WILL BOUNCE TONIGHT...THE OVERALL TREND IS
TO DROP CIGS INTO THE MVFR RANGE WITH A FEW CROSSING IFR
THRESHOLDS.

THURS ANY STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO A SCT TO BKN CLOUD DECK NEARING
5KFT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THERE ON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS WILL COME LATER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240114
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
914 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH WITH PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED TO REMOVE ALL POPS BEHIND THE ADVANCING DEWPOINT
BOUNDARY...AND ALSO TO REDUCE THEM AHEAD OF IT. ONLY A FEW SHRA
NOW LEFT AS MANY OF THEM DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. DO THINK THIS BOUNDARY LOSES ITS PUSH OVERNIGHT AS THE
LOWER LEVELS STABILIZE...SO WILL HANG ON TO A VERY LOW POP IN THE
SOUTHEAST CWA OVERNIGHT. SKY GRIDS ARE TRICKY...THINK AREA TO THE
SOUTH WILL SEE AN INCREASE WHILE THE NORTHWEST WILL GET A LATE
DECREASE WITH ADVANCE OF DRIER AIR. FORMATION OF STRATOCU PATCHES
POSSIBLE PRETTY MUCH ANYWHERE OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPS LOOKED
REASONABLE AND NO CHANGE THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LINGERING SLGT...TO CHC NMBRS WERE RETAINED FOR AREAS S AND E OF
PIT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY GIVEN THE PROG OF ANOTHER SHRTWV ACRS
THE STABILIZING UPR OH REGION.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WL BE ADVECTING OVR THE ENTIRE REGION
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PD. TEMPS WERE FORECAST CLOSER TO BIAS
CORRECTED GFS MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
MODELS EXPLORING SOME DIFFERENT OPTIONS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE REFINED ONCE MODEL RUN TO RUN BECOMES
MORE CONSISTENT.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AND MUCH COOLER AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST TONIGHT AS THE FRONT HAS JUST ABOUT
PUSHED THROUGH ALL TERMINALS NEARING 00Z. DEWPOINTS ARE FALLING
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS DEVELOPED SOME
STRATOCU IN THE WAKE. SATELLITE IMAGERY OFFERS A PRETTY RAGGED
DEPICTION OF THE CLOUD DECK THAT IS FAR FROM UNIFORM. ALTHOUGH
MANY OF THE SITES CIGS WILL BOUNCE TONIGHT...THE OVERALL TREND IS
TO DROP CIGS INTO THE MVFR RANGE WITH A FEW CROSSING IFR
THRESHOLDS.

THURS ANY STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO A SCT TO BKN CLOUD DECK NEARING
5KFT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THERE ON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS WILL COME LATER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 232337
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
737 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH WITH PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
545 PM UPDATE...PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS ALMOST ENTIRELY THROUGH
CWA...BUT THE LAGGING DEWPOINT BOUNDARY IS JUST PAST DUJ AND
APPROACHING BTP. THIS WILL BE THE REAL POP CUTOFF THIS
EVENING...AND HAVE TIMED THE GRIDS TO THIS THINKING. THINK THIS
PASSES THROUGH PIT AROUND 00Z AND THEN SLOWS UP AS IT APPROACHES
THE MASON/DIXON LINE LATER THIS EVENING. THUNDER IS ALREADY WANING
AND HAVE REDUCED PROBABILITIES ACCORDINGLY. NEXT UPDATE WILL
REDUCE POPS EVEN FURTHER IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE. ALSO UPDATED
SKY/WIND GRIDS FOR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...


EARLY AFTN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO FURTHER ADJUST HOURLY TRENDS OF
POPS AND TEMPS AS THE CDFNT ENCROACHES ON THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION.
SFC WIND IS ALREADY VEERING WITH PASSAGE OF PREFRONTAL TROF...BUT
APPRECIABLY DRIER AIR SHOULD NOT BE ANTICIPATED UNTIL TNGT.
LIKELY POPS WERE ADJUSTED SWD WITH EXPECTATIONS OF AFTN/EARLY EVE
SHRTWV SPPRT AND HIGHER INSTABILITY VIA HEATING AND SFC DEWPOINTS
ARND 70F. POP DIMINISHMENT FM THE NW CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE
EVE...AND FRONT PROGRESS THIS EVE.

NR TERM TEMPS WERE BASED ON PERSISTENCE TWEAKED VIA NAM GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LINGERING SLGT...TO CHC NMBRS WERE RETAINED FOR AREAS S AND E OF
PIT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY GIVEN THE PROG OF ANOTHER SHRTWV ACRS
THE STABILIZING UPR OH REGION.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WL BE ADVECTING OVR THE ENTIRE REGION
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PD. TEMPS WERE FORECAST CLOSER TO BIAS
CORRECTED GFS MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
MODELS EXPLORING SOME DIFFERENT OPTIONS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE REFINED ONCE MODEL RUN TO RUN BECOMES
MORE CONSISTENT.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AND MUCH COOLER AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST TONIGHT AS THE FRONT HAS JUST ABOUT
PUSHED THROUGH ALL TERMINALS NEARING 00Z. DEWPOINTS ARE FALLING
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS DEVELOPED SOME
STRATOCU IN THE WAKE. SATELLITE IMAGERY OFFERS A PRETTY RAGGED
DEPICTION OF THE CLOUD DECK THAT IS FAR FROM UNIFORM. ALTHOUGH
MANY OF THE SITES CIGS WILL BOUNCE TONIGHT...THE OVERALL TREND IS
TO DROP CIGS INTO THE MVFR RANGE WITH A FEW CROSSING IFR
THRESHOLDS.

THURS ANY STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO A SCT TO BKN CLOUD DECK NEARING
5KFT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THERE ON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS WILL COME LATER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 232337
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
737 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH WITH PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
545 PM UPDATE...PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS ALMOST ENTIRELY THROUGH
CWA...BUT THE LAGGING DEWPOINT BOUNDARY IS JUST PAST DUJ AND
APPROACHING BTP. THIS WILL BE THE REAL POP CUTOFF THIS
EVENING...AND HAVE TIMED THE GRIDS TO THIS THINKING. THINK THIS
PASSES THROUGH PIT AROUND 00Z AND THEN SLOWS UP AS IT APPROACHES
THE MASON/DIXON LINE LATER THIS EVENING. THUNDER IS ALREADY WANING
AND HAVE REDUCED PROBABILITIES ACCORDINGLY. NEXT UPDATE WILL
REDUCE POPS EVEN FURTHER IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE. ALSO UPDATED
SKY/WIND GRIDS FOR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...


EARLY AFTN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO FURTHER ADJUST HOURLY TRENDS OF
POPS AND TEMPS AS THE CDFNT ENCROACHES ON THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION.
SFC WIND IS ALREADY VEERING WITH PASSAGE OF PREFRONTAL TROF...BUT
APPRECIABLY DRIER AIR SHOULD NOT BE ANTICIPATED UNTIL TNGT.
LIKELY POPS WERE ADJUSTED SWD WITH EXPECTATIONS OF AFTN/EARLY EVE
SHRTWV SPPRT AND HIGHER INSTABILITY VIA HEATING AND SFC DEWPOINTS
ARND 70F. POP DIMINISHMENT FM THE NW CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE
EVE...AND FRONT PROGRESS THIS EVE.

NR TERM TEMPS WERE BASED ON PERSISTENCE TWEAKED VIA NAM GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LINGERING SLGT...TO CHC NMBRS WERE RETAINED FOR AREAS S AND E OF
PIT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY GIVEN THE PROG OF ANOTHER SHRTWV ACRS
THE STABILIZING UPR OH REGION.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WL BE ADVECTING OVR THE ENTIRE REGION
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PD. TEMPS WERE FORECAST CLOSER TO BIAS
CORRECTED GFS MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
MODELS EXPLORING SOME DIFFERENT OPTIONS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE REFINED ONCE MODEL RUN TO RUN BECOMES
MORE CONSISTENT.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AND MUCH COOLER AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST TONIGHT AS THE FRONT HAS JUST ABOUT
PUSHED THROUGH ALL TERMINALS NEARING 00Z. DEWPOINTS ARE FALLING
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS DEVELOPED SOME
STRATOCU IN THE WAKE. SATELLITE IMAGERY OFFERS A PRETTY RAGGED
DEPICTION OF THE CLOUD DECK THAT IS FAR FROM UNIFORM. ALTHOUGH
MANY OF THE SITES CIGS WILL BOUNCE TONIGHT...THE OVERALL TREND IS
TO DROP CIGS INTO THE MVFR RANGE WITH A FEW CROSSING IFR
THRESHOLDS.

THURS ANY STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO A SCT TO BKN CLOUD DECK NEARING
5KFT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THERE ON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS WILL COME LATER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 232151
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
551 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH WITH PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
545 PM UPDATE...PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS ALMOST ENTIRELY THROUGH
CWA...BUT THE LAGGING DEWPOINT BOUNDARY IS JUST PAST DUJ AND
APPROACHING BTP. THIS WILL BE THE REAL POP CUTOFF THIS
EVENING...AND HAVE TIMED THE GRIDS TO THIS THINKING. THINK THIS
PASSES THROUGH PIT AROUND 00Z AND THEN SLOWS UP AS IT APPROACHES
THE MASON/DIXON LINE LATER THIS EVENING. THUNDER IS ALREADY WANING
AND HAVE REDUCED PROBABILITIES ACCORDINGLY. NEXT UPDATE WILL
REDUCE POPS EVEN FURTHER IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE. ALSO UPDATED
SKY/WIND GRIDS FOR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...


EARLY AFTN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO FURTHER ADJUST HOURLY TRENDS OF
POPS AND TEMPS AS THE CDFNT ENCROACHES ON THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION.
SFC WIND IS ALREADY VEERING WITH PASSAGE OF PREFRONTAL TROF...BUT
APPRECIABLY DRIER AIR SHOULD NOT BE ANTICIPATED UNTIL TNGT.
LIKELY POPS WERE ADJUSTED SWD WITH EXPECTATIONS OF AFTN/EARLY EVE
SHRTWV SPPRT AND HIGHER INSTABILITY VIA HEATING AND SFC DEWPOINTS
ARND 70F. POP DIMINISHMENT FM THE NW CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE
EVE...AND FRONT PROGRESS THIS EVE.

NR TERM TEMPS WERE BASED ON PERSISTENCE TWEAKED VIA NAM GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LINGERING SLGT...TO CHC NMBRS WERE RETAINED FOR AREAS S AND E OF
PIT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY GIVEN THE PROG OF ANOTHER SHRTWV ACRS
THE STABILIZING UPR OH REGION.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WL BE ADVECTING OVR THE ENTIRE REGION
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PD. TEMPS WERE FORECAST CLOSER TO BIAS
CORRECTED GFS MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
MODELS EXPLORING SOME DIFFERENT OPTIONS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE REFINED ONCE MODEL RUN TO RUN BECOMES
MORE CONSISTENT.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AND MUCH COOLER AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRE-FRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS WANED IN ITS ENTIRETY FROM MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER SHALLOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STARTING
TO FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM KCAK
AND KYNG AT THIS HOUR. SOME VCSH WAS RETAINED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...HOWEVER THE BIGGEST CHANCE TO THE TAFS WAS TO ADD COLD
ADVECTION STRATUS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.
NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY EVEN AS THE STRATUS STARTS
TO LIFT. FRIES

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS WILL COME LATER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 232151
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
551 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH WITH PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
545 PM UPDATE...PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS ALMOST ENTIRELY THROUGH
CWA...BUT THE LAGGING DEWPOINT BOUNDARY IS JUST PAST DUJ AND
APPROACHING BTP. THIS WILL BE THE REAL POP CUTOFF THIS
EVENING...AND HAVE TIMED THE GRIDS TO THIS THINKING. THINK THIS
PASSES THROUGH PIT AROUND 00Z AND THEN SLOWS UP AS IT APPROACHES
THE MASON/DIXON LINE LATER THIS EVENING. THUNDER IS ALREADY WANING
AND HAVE REDUCED PROBABILITIES ACCORDINGLY. NEXT UPDATE WILL
REDUCE POPS EVEN FURTHER IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE. ALSO UPDATED
SKY/WIND GRIDS FOR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...


EARLY AFTN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO FURTHER ADJUST HOURLY TRENDS OF
POPS AND TEMPS AS THE CDFNT ENCROACHES ON THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION.
SFC WIND IS ALREADY VEERING WITH PASSAGE OF PREFRONTAL TROF...BUT
APPRECIABLY DRIER AIR SHOULD NOT BE ANTICIPATED UNTIL TNGT.
LIKELY POPS WERE ADJUSTED SWD WITH EXPECTATIONS OF AFTN/EARLY EVE
SHRTWV SPPRT AND HIGHER INSTABILITY VIA HEATING AND SFC DEWPOINTS
ARND 70F. POP DIMINISHMENT FM THE NW CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE
EVE...AND FRONT PROGRESS THIS EVE.

NR TERM TEMPS WERE BASED ON PERSISTENCE TWEAKED VIA NAM GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LINGERING SLGT...TO CHC NMBRS WERE RETAINED FOR AREAS S AND E OF
PIT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY GIVEN THE PROG OF ANOTHER SHRTWV ACRS
THE STABILIZING UPR OH REGION.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WL BE ADVECTING OVR THE ENTIRE REGION
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PD. TEMPS WERE FORECAST CLOSER TO BIAS
CORRECTED GFS MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
MODELS EXPLORING SOME DIFFERENT OPTIONS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE REFINED ONCE MODEL RUN TO RUN BECOMES
MORE CONSISTENT.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AND MUCH COOLER AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRE-FRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS WANED IN ITS ENTIRETY FROM MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER SHALLOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STARTING
TO FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM KCAK
AND KYNG AT THIS HOUR. SOME VCSH WAS RETAINED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...HOWEVER THE BIGGEST CHANCE TO THE TAFS WAS TO ADD COLD
ADVECTION STRATUS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.
NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY EVEN AS THE STRATUS STARTS
TO LIFT. FRIES

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS WILL COME LATER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231709
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
109 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH WITH PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY AFTN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO FURTHER ADJUST HOURLY TRENDS OF
POPS AND TEMPS AS THE CDFNT ENCROACHES ON THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION.
SFC WIND IS ALREADY VEERING WITH PASSAGE OF PREFRONTAL TROF...BUT
APPRECIABLY DRIER AIR SHOULD NOT BE ANTICIPATED UNTIL TNGT.
LIKELY POPS WERE ADJUSTED SWD WITH EXPECTATIONS OF AFTN/EARLY EVE
SHRTWV SPPRT AND HIGHER INSTABILITY VIA HEATING AND SFC DEWPOINTS
ARND 70F. POP DIMINISHMENT FM THE NW CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE
EVE...AND FRONT PROGRESS THIS EVE.

NR TERM TEMPS WERE BASED ON PERSISTENCE TWEAKED VIA NAM GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LINGERING SLGT...TO CHC NMBRS WERE RETAINED FOR AREAS S AND E OF
PIT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY GIVEN THE PROG OF ANOTHER SHRTWV ACRS
THE STABILIZING UPR OH REGION.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WL BE ADVECTING OVR THE ENTIRE REGION
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PD. TEMPS WERE FORECAST CLOSER TO BIAS
CORRECTED GFS MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
MODELS EXPLORING SOME DIFFERENT OPTIONS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE REFINED ONCE MODEL RUN TO RUN BECOMES
MORE CONSISTENT.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AND MUCH COOLER AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PRE-FRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS WANED IN ITS ENTIRETY FROM MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER SHALLOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STARTING
TO FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM KCAK
AND KYNG AT THIS HOUR. SOME VCSH WAS RETAINED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...HOWEVER THE BIGGEST CHANCE TO THE TAFS WAS TO ADD COLD
ADVECTION STRATUS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.
NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY EVEN AS THE STRATUS STARTS
TO LIFT. FRIES

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS WILL COME LATER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231709
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
109 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH WITH PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY AFTN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO FURTHER ADJUST HOURLY TRENDS OF
POPS AND TEMPS AS THE CDFNT ENCROACHES ON THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION.
SFC WIND IS ALREADY VEERING WITH PASSAGE OF PREFRONTAL TROF...BUT
APPRECIABLY DRIER AIR SHOULD NOT BE ANTICIPATED UNTIL TNGT.
LIKELY POPS WERE ADJUSTED SWD WITH EXPECTATIONS OF AFTN/EARLY EVE
SHRTWV SPPRT AND HIGHER INSTABILITY VIA HEATING AND SFC DEWPOINTS
ARND 70F. POP DIMINISHMENT FM THE NW CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE
EVE...AND FRONT PROGRESS THIS EVE.

NR TERM TEMPS WERE BASED ON PERSISTENCE TWEAKED VIA NAM GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LINGERING SLGT...TO CHC NMBRS WERE RETAINED FOR AREAS S AND E OF
PIT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY GIVEN THE PROG OF ANOTHER SHRTWV ACRS
THE STABILIZING UPR OH REGION.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WL BE ADVECTING OVR THE ENTIRE REGION
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PD. TEMPS WERE FORECAST CLOSER TO BIAS
CORRECTED GFS MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
MODELS EXPLORING SOME DIFFERENT OPTIONS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE REFINED ONCE MODEL RUN TO RUN BECOMES
MORE CONSISTENT.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AND MUCH COOLER AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PRE-FRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS WANED IN ITS ENTIRETY FROM MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER SHALLOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STARTING
TO FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM KCAK
AND KYNG AT THIS HOUR. SOME VCSH WAS RETAINED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...HOWEVER THE BIGGEST CHANCE TO THE TAFS WAS TO ADD COLD
ADVECTION STRATUS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.
NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY EVEN AS THE STRATUS STARTS
TO LIFT. FRIES

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS WILL COME LATER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







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