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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271106
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
601 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
RESULTS IN RAIN AND SNOW SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CUT BACK ON CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY WHERE AT LEAST
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. DESPITE THE MORE POTENT LATE
FEBRUARY SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE DAY AS
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN. COLDEST 850MB TEMPERATURES NEAR
-22C WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS.

AS THE SUN SETS TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY UNDER
CALM...DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD OPTIMIZE
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR MOST LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED A FRESH COATING OF SNOW. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA PRE-DAWN SATURDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW WARMING OF THE MID-LEVELS TO THE TUNE OF 6 TO 8
DEGREES C ABOVE THE 00Z MINIMUMS. WITH A LACK OF FLOW BETWEEN THE
SFC AND 750MB...A NEAR SFC INVERSION WILL DECOUPLE THE ATMOSPHERE
AND DROP TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WELL BELOW
ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.

AT THIS POINT...THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR TEMPERATURES AS
LOW AS FORECAST IS POSSIBILITY OF HIGH CLOUDS SHIELDING THE
OUTGOING LONGWAVE RADIATION. THE 00Z NAM IS A LITTLE BIT FASTER IN
INTRODUCING HIGH CLOUDS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE.
ULTIMATELY TWEAKED SAT MORNING LOWS...WHICH INCLUDES BUMPING UP
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SRN 1/2 OF THE CWA BY A DEGREE OR TWO.

AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY...THE NEAR SFC TEMPERATURE INVERSION
SHOULD MIX OUT AND ALLOW FOR A QUICK WARM-UP UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION...AND OVERNIGHT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST WERE BASED MAINLY ON A BLEND OF EC...GFS...AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AS THE HPC PREFERRED SOLUTIONS...WITH LESS
WEIGHT PUT ON THE SREF AND NAM. THIS TRENDS TOWARDS A MORE
AMPLIFIED AND COLDER SOLUTION. PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS ALL
SNOW...BUT BEGIN CHANGING OVER TO RAIN OVER THE COURSE OF THE
MORNING AND NOW ANTICIPATE SNOW SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH...AND A RAIN AND/OR RAIN/SNOW MIX MAINLY LIMITED TO
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. LOOKING AT CRITICAL THICKNESSES
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY...LARGELY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80
AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE STRONG ON SUNDAY WHICH IS
REFLECTED IN THE 850-700MB VALUES. THEREFORE...HAVE HELD BACK
FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 FOR NOW AS A
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL
IMPACT ACCUMULATIONS. NORTH OF I-80 SNOW AMOUNTS WERE INTRODUCED
OR INCREASED AS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN ALL SNOW IS HIGHER
HERE...AND BASED ON THE LATEST HEADLINES MAY BE INTRODUCED
SOON...AT LEAST FOR NORTHERN LOCATIONS. BY MONDAY MORNING...ANY
ONGOING PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE CHANGED BACK OVER TO SNOW WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY ON IN THE EXTENDED AS
TROUGHING DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN US AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS
UP ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. A CLOSED OFF AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EJECTING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL START
TO TRANSITION EAST MONDAY AND HELP DRAG IN MOISTURE OFF THE SOCAL
COAST INTO THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE POOLING IN FROM THE GULF. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING
MINIMAL SPREAD IN THIS SETUP...WHICH WILL MAY RESULT IN A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST PWAT VALUES ARE AROUND THE 99TH
PERCENTILE BY WEDNESDAY OVER THE AREA AND IVT VALUES ARE SHOWING
A BULLS EYE OVER THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH THE ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTH AND A MORE RIPE SNOWPACK TO THE SOUTH RAISES
FLOODING CONCERNS AND WILL BE FOLLOWING THIS CLOSELY IN UPCOMING
MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SNOW AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CLOUD COVER IS CONTINUING TO WANE THIS
MORNING. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CLEARING SKIES WEST
TO EAST. MVFR CEILINGS MAY HOLD IN MGW AND LBE THIS MORNING FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS...BUT ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS
WITH WEAK SURFACE FLOW THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE TAF PERIOD.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271106
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
601 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
RESULTS IN RAIN AND SNOW SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CUT BACK ON CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY WHERE AT LEAST
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. DESPITE THE MORE POTENT LATE
FEBRUARY SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE DAY AS
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN. COLDEST 850MB TEMPERATURES NEAR
-22C WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS.

AS THE SUN SETS TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY UNDER
CALM...DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD OPTIMIZE
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR MOST LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED A FRESH COATING OF SNOW. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA PRE-DAWN SATURDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW WARMING OF THE MID-LEVELS TO THE TUNE OF 6 TO 8
DEGREES C ABOVE THE 00Z MINIMUMS. WITH A LACK OF FLOW BETWEEN THE
SFC AND 750MB...A NEAR SFC INVERSION WILL DECOUPLE THE ATMOSPHERE
AND DROP TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WELL BELOW
ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.

AT THIS POINT...THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR TEMPERATURES AS
LOW AS FORECAST IS POSSIBILITY OF HIGH CLOUDS SHIELDING THE
OUTGOING LONGWAVE RADIATION. THE 00Z NAM IS A LITTLE BIT FASTER IN
INTRODUCING HIGH CLOUDS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE.
ULTIMATELY TWEAKED SAT MORNING LOWS...WHICH INCLUDES BUMPING UP
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SRN 1/2 OF THE CWA BY A DEGREE OR TWO.

AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY...THE NEAR SFC TEMPERATURE INVERSION
SHOULD MIX OUT AND ALLOW FOR A QUICK WARM-UP UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION...AND OVERNIGHT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST WERE BASED MAINLY ON A BLEND OF EC...GFS...AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AS THE HPC PREFERRED SOLUTIONS...WITH LESS
WEIGHT PUT ON THE SREF AND NAM. THIS TRENDS TOWARDS A MORE
AMPLIFIED AND COLDER SOLUTION. PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS ALL
SNOW...BUT BEGIN CHANGING OVER TO RAIN OVER THE COURSE OF THE
MORNING AND NOW ANTICIPATE SNOW SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH...AND A RAIN AND/OR RAIN/SNOW MIX MAINLY LIMITED TO
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. LOOKING AT CRITICAL THICKNESSES
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY...LARGELY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80
AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE STRONG ON SUNDAY WHICH IS
REFLECTED IN THE 850-700MB VALUES. THEREFORE...HAVE HELD BACK
FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 FOR NOW AS A
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL
IMPACT ACCUMULATIONS. NORTH OF I-80 SNOW AMOUNTS WERE INTRODUCED
OR INCREASED AS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN ALL SNOW IS HIGHER
HERE...AND BASED ON THE LATEST HEADLINES MAY BE INTRODUCED
SOON...AT LEAST FOR NORTHERN LOCATIONS. BY MONDAY MORNING...ANY
ONGOING PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE CHANGED BACK OVER TO SNOW WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY ON IN THE EXTENDED AS
TROUGHING DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN US AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS
UP ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. A CLOSED OFF AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EJECTING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL START
TO TRANSITION EAST MONDAY AND HELP DRAG IN MOISTURE OFF THE SOCAL
COAST INTO THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE POOLING IN FROM THE GULF. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING
MINIMAL SPREAD IN THIS SETUP...WHICH WILL MAY RESULT IN A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST PWAT VALUES ARE AROUND THE 99TH
PERCENTILE BY WEDNESDAY OVER THE AREA AND IVT VALUES ARE SHOWING
A BULLS EYE OVER THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH THE ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTH AND A MORE RIPE SNOWPACK TO THE SOUTH RAISES
FLOODING CONCERNS AND WILL BE FOLLOWING THIS CLOSELY IN UPCOMING
MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SNOW AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CLOUD COVER IS CONTINUING TO WANE THIS
MORNING. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CLEARING SKIES WEST
TO EAST. MVFR CEILINGS MAY HOLD IN MGW AND LBE THIS MORNING FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS...BUT ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS
WITH WEAK SURFACE FLOW THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE TAF PERIOD.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270811
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
311 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THIS
EVENING. DRY AND FRIGID CONDITIONS WILL END THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SNOW QUICKLY TAPERING OFF WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE RIDGES AT THIS
HOUR...WILL COMPLETELY EXIT BY 12Z. CURRENT 11-3.9 MICRON FOG
CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SKIES CLEARING QUICKLY BEHIND
THE EXITING SNOW. MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALREADY
EVACUATED THE AREA...LEAVING ONLY THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DWINDLING SNOW. THE RATE OF CLEARING IS A BIT
FASTER THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE INDICATED...BUT THE LATEST HI-RES
MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. ULTIMATELY CUT BACK ON CLOUD
COVER THIS MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY WHERE AT LEAST MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

DESPITE THE MORE POTENT LATE FEBRUARY SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE DAY AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN.
COLDEST 850MB TEMPERATURES NEAR -22C WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.

AS THE SUN SETS TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY UNDER
CALM...DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD OPTIMIZE
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR MOST LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED A FRESH COATING OF SNOW. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA PRE-DAWN SATURDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW WARMING OF THE MID-LEVELS TO THE TUNE OF 6 TO 8
DEGREES C ABOVE THE 00Z MINIMUMS. WITH A LACK OF FLOW BETWEEN THE
SFC AND 750MB...A NEAR SFC INVERSION WILL DECOUPLE THE ATMOSPHERE
AND DROP TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WELL BELOW
ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.

AT THIS POINT...THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR TEMPERATURES AS
LOW AS FORECAST IS POSSIBILITY OF HIGH CLOUDS SHIELDING THE
OUTGOING LONGWAVE RADIATION. THE 00Z NAM IS A LITTLE BIT FASTER IN
INTRODUCING HIGH CLOUDS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE.
ULTIMATELY TWEAKED SAT MORNING LOWS...WHICH INCLUDES BUMPING UP
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SRN 1/2 OF THE CWA BY A DEGREE OR TWO.

AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY...THE NEAR SFC TEMPERATURE INVERSION
SHOULD MIX OUT AND ALLOW FOR A QUICK WARM-UP UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DROP SIGNIFICANTLY ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE HELP OF STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SNOWPACK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE ON
SATURDAY HOWEVER...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WARM
ADVECTION ENSUES.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS APPROACH ON SUNDAY. AS OF NOW...THE
SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO MOVE RIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
WARM ADVECTION AND 850 TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH TO BRING A MIX TO
AREAS SOUTH OF I 80...WITH MAINLY SNOW TO THE NORTH. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS FEATURE
IN THE HWO AS SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE...DEPENDING
ON THE TRACK AND WARM AIR ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A PATTERN CHANGE AND RELATIVE WARM UP THEN SETS UP THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK AS WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING DEVELOPS. SHORTWAVES ARE
PROGGED TO EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...KEEPING PERIODIC RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE WITH A
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WAVE. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE
OVERDONE IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME...BUT WILL MONITOR AS A
DECENT SNOWPACK REMAINS.

ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE OFFERED A REASONABLE START TO THE
FORECAST...THOUGH MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LATEST GFS TO WARM SOME
TEMPS...WITH ADJUSTMENTS FOR PRECIP TYPE BASED ON GFS CRITICAL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SNOW AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CLOUD COVER IS CONTINUING TO WANE THIS
MORNING. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CLEARING SKIES WEST
TO EAST. MVFR CEILINGS MAY HOLD IN MGW AND LBE THIS MORNING FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS...BUT ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES BY DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS
WITH WEAK SURFACE FLOW THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE TAF PERIOD. TAX

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270811
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
311 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THIS
EVENING. DRY AND FRIGID CONDITIONS WILL END THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SNOW QUICKLY TAPERING OFF WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE RIDGES AT THIS
HOUR...WILL COMPLETELY EXIT BY 12Z. CURRENT 11-3.9 MICRON FOG
CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SKIES CLEARING QUICKLY BEHIND
THE EXITING SNOW. MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALREADY
EVACUATED THE AREA...LEAVING ONLY THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DWINDLING SNOW. THE RATE OF CLEARING IS A BIT
FASTER THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE INDICATED...BUT THE LATEST HI-RES
MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. ULTIMATELY CUT BACK ON CLOUD
COVER THIS MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY WHERE AT LEAST MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

DESPITE THE MORE POTENT LATE FEBRUARY SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE DAY AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN.
COLDEST 850MB TEMPERATURES NEAR -22C WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.

AS THE SUN SETS TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY UNDER
CALM...DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD OPTIMIZE
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR MOST LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED A FRESH COATING OF SNOW. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA PRE-DAWN SATURDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW WARMING OF THE MID-LEVELS TO THE TUNE OF 6 TO 8
DEGREES C ABOVE THE 00Z MINIMUMS. WITH A LACK OF FLOW BETWEEN THE
SFC AND 750MB...A NEAR SFC INVERSION WILL DECOUPLE THE ATMOSPHERE
AND DROP TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WELL BELOW
ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.

AT THIS POINT...THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR TEMPERATURES AS
LOW AS FORECAST IS POSSIBILITY OF HIGH CLOUDS SHIELDING THE
OUTGOING LONGWAVE RADIATION. THE 00Z NAM IS A LITTLE BIT FASTER IN
INTRODUCING HIGH CLOUDS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE.
ULTIMATELY TWEAKED SAT MORNING LOWS...WHICH INCLUDES BUMPING UP
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SRN 1/2 OF THE CWA BY A DEGREE OR TWO.

AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY...THE NEAR SFC TEMPERATURE INVERSION
SHOULD MIX OUT AND ALLOW FOR A QUICK WARM-UP UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DROP SIGNIFICANTLY ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE HELP OF STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SNOWPACK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE ON
SATURDAY HOWEVER...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WARM
ADVECTION ENSUES.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS APPROACH ON SUNDAY. AS OF NOW...THE
SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO MOVE RIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
WARM ADVECTION AND 850 TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH TO BRING A MIX TO
AREAS SOUTH OF I 80...WITH MAINLY SNOW TO THE NORTH. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS FEATURE
IN THE HWO AS SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE...DEPENDING
ON THE TRACK AND WARM AIR ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A PATTERN CHANGE AND RELATIVE WARM UP THEN SETS UP THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK AS WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING DEVELOPS. SHORTWAVES ARE
PROGGED TO EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...KEEPING PERIODIC RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE WITH A
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WAVE. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE
OVERDONE IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME...BUT WILL MONITOR AS A
DECENT SNOWPACK REMAINS.

ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE OFFERED A REASONABLE START TO THE
FORECAST...THOUGH MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LATEST GFS TO WARM SOME
TEMPS...WITH ADJUSTMENTS FOR PRECIP TYPE BASED ON GFS CRITICAL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SNOW AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CLOUD COVER IS CONTINUING TO WANE THIS
MORNING. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CLEARING SKIES WEST
TO EAST. MVFR CEILINGS MAY HOLD IN MGW AND LBE THIS MORNING FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS...BUT ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES BY DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS
WITH WEAK SURFACE FLOW THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE TAF PERIOD. TAX

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270215
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
915 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THIS
EVENING. DRY AND FRIGID CONDITIONS WILL END THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH 915PM UPDATE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO FORECAST. AS
QUICKLY AS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS BEGAN TO SCATTER OUT AROUND
SUNSET...LOW CLOUDS HAVE FILLED BACK IN AT ALL SITES. WITH THE
CLOUDS EXTENDING ALL THE WAY TO THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...APPEARS
THAT ANY IMMEDIATE CHANCE OF CLEARING SKIES AND PLUMMETING
TEMPERATURES IS LOW. OBSERVED TEMPERATURE TRENDS HAVE STAYED WITH
FORECAST TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AND HAVE
MADE NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES WITH THIS UPDATE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

WITH 630PM UPDATE...PRIMARY CHANGES TO FORECAST WERE TO SKY COVER
AND TEMPERATURES. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO SCATTER OUT IN
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...AND WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COMING OVER
FROZEN LAKE ERIE...NOT SURE THERE WILL BE MUCH OF A MOISTURE
SOURCE FOR CLOUDS TO REFORM. AS A RESULT...HAVE MADE SOME DECREASE
TO CLOUDS IN THIS AREA OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE EXTENSIVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FOLLOWING THE CLEARING TREND...HAVE BLENDED SOME
RAP TEMPERATURES INTO THE FORECAST. THIS STARTS TO BRING OVERNIGHT
LOWS DOWN A FEW DEGREES WHERE THE GREATEST CLEARING WILL
OCCUR...WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN THICKEST. AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED...IF MORE SCATTERING
OCCURS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...SOME LOCATIONS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 COULD EASILY HAVE TEMPERATURES CRATER TO MINUS 10 OR
LOWER. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT THINK SUCH AN AGGRESSIVE CHANGE
NEEDS TO BE MADE TO THE FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VERY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING AS
THE ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE HI
RES MODELS HAVE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SNOWFALL BEFORE RAMPING UP
AGAIN AS THE ENTIRE COLUMN COOLS AND FALLS INTO THE -15 TO -20
RANGE. HOWEVER...THIS WINDOW IS RATHER SMALL FOR ALL BUT THE
RIDGES BEFORE SUBSIDENCE TAKES PLACE. THUS...SNOWFALL FORECAST
CHANGES WERE RATHER MINIMAL...ONLY ADDING ABOUT AN INCH TO THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF PA/WV/MD...AND GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH
ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. COLD ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
OR JUST BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT. AT THIS POINT...STAYED ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE AS EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
BOTTOMING OUT. HOWEVER...IF CLOUDS WERE TO SCATTER OUT
EARLY...TEMPERATURES COULD FALL OFF MUCH MORE WITH THE SNOWPACK
AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. EVEN IF TEMPS WERE TO FALL OFF MORE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST...THE LOW WINDS EXPECTED WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD LIMIT ANY CONCERNS FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORIES
OVERNIGHT. THUS...NO HEADLINES WERE ISSUED ON THIS SHIFT.

COLD ADVECTION AND SHOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DROP SIGNIFICANTLY ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE HELP OF STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SNOWPACK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE ON
SATURDAY HOWEVER...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WARM
ADVECTION ENSUES.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS APPROACH ON SUNDAY. AS OF NOW...THE
SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO MOVE RIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
WARM ADVECTION AND 850 TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH TO BRING A MIX TO
AREAS SOUTH OF I 80...WITH MAINLY SNOW TO THE NORTH. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS FEATURE
IN THE HWO AS SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE...DEPENDING
ON THE TRACK AND WARM AIR ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A PATTERN CHANGE AND RELATIVE WARM UP THEN SETS UP THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK AS WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING DEVELOPS. SHORTWAVES ARE
PROGGED TO EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...KEEPING PERIODIC RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE WITH A
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WAVE. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE
OVERDONE IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME...BUT WILL MONITOR AS A
DECENT SNOWPACK REMAINS.

ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE OFFERED A REASONABLE START TO THE
FORECAST...THOUGH MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LATEST GFS TO WARM SOME
TEMPS...WITH ADJUSTMENTS FOR PRECIP TYPE BASED ON GFS CRITICAL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS ADVECTED PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR
OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. WHILE THE SUN WAS UP...EVEN WITH
DRY ADVECTION...SOME STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPED OFF THE GREAT LAKES
EVEN WITH THE ICE COVER DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING WORKING WITH MODEST
HEAT/MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE FEW CRACKS THAT DO EXIST IN THE ICE. AS
THE EVENING ENSUES...EXPECT LOW LEVEL STABILITY TO MAKE LAKE
INDUCED STRATUS MORE DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO
A SCATTERING OUT OF LOW CLOUDS. THAT SAID...MID CLOUDS ARE SET TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT AS AN AREA OF INCREASED
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES FROM INDIANA THROUGH WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY MORNING...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHT WNW WINDS. FRIES

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270215
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
915 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THIS
EVENING. DRY AND FRIGID CONDITIONS WILL END THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH 915PM UPDATE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO FORECAST. AS
QUICKLY AS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS BEGAN TO SCATTER OUT AROUND
SUNSET...LOW CLOUDS HAVE FILLED BACK IN AT ALL SITES. WITH THE
CLOUDS EXTENDING ALL THE WAY TO THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...APPEARS
THAT ANY IMMEDIATE CHANCE OF CLEARING SKIES AND PLUMMETING
TEMPERATURES IS LOW. OBSERVED TEMPERATURE TRENDS HAVE STAYED WITH
FORECAST TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AND HAVE
MADE NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES WITH THIS UPDATE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

WITH 630PM UPDATE...PRIMARY CHANGES TO FORECAST WERE TO SKY COVER
AND TEMPERATURES. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO SCATTER OUT IN
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...AND WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COMING OVER
FROZEN LAKE ERIE...NOT SURE THERE WILL BE MUCH OF A MOISTURE
SOURCE FOR CLOUDS TO REFORM. AS A RESULT...HAVE MADE SOME DECREASE
TO CLOUDS IN THIS AREA OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE EXTENSIVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FOLLOWING THE CLEARING TREND...HAVE BLENDED SOME
RAP TEMPERATURES INTO THE FORECAST. THIS STARTS TO BRING OVERNIGHT
LOWS DOWN A FEW DEGREES WHERE THE GREATEST CLEARING WILL
OCCUR...WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN THICKEST. AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED...IF MORE SCATTERING
OCCURS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...SOME LOCATIONS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 COULD EASILY HAVE TEMPERATURES CRATER TO MINUS 10 OR
LOWER. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT THINK SUCH AN AGGRESSIVE CHANGE
NEEDS TO BE MADE TO THE FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VERY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING AS
THE ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE HI
RES MODELS HAVE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SNOWFALL BEFORE RAMPING UP
AGAIN AS THE ENTIRE COLUMN COOLS AND FALLS INTO THE -15 TO -20
RANGE. HOWEVER...THIS WINDOW IS RATHER SMALL FOR ALL BUT THE
RIDGES BEFORE SUBSIDENCE TAKES PLACE. THUS...SNOWFALL FORECAST
CHANGES WERE RATHER MINIMAL...ONLY ADDING ABOUT AN INCH TO THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF PA/WV/MD...AND GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH
ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. COLD ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
OR JUST BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT. AT THIS POINT...STAYED ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE AS EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
BOTTOMING OUT. HOWEVER...IF CLOUDS WERE TO SCATTER OUT
EARLY...TEMPERATURES COULD FALL OFF MUCH MORE WITH THE SNOWPACK
AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. EVEN IF TEMPS WERE TO FALL OFF MORE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST...THE LOW WINDS EXPECTED WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD LIMIT ANY CONCERNS FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORIES
OVERNIGHT. THUS...NO HEADLINES WERE ISSUED ON THIS SHIFT.

COLD ADVECTION AND SHOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DROP SIGNIFICANTLY ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE HELP OF STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SNOWPACK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE ON
SATURDAY HOWEVER...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WARM
ADVECTION ENSUES.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS APPROACH ON SUNDAY. AS OF NOW...THE
SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO MOVE RIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
WARM ADVECTION AND 850 TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH TO BRING A MIX TO
AREAS SOUTH OF I 80...WITH MAINLY SNOW TO THE NORTH. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS FEATURE
IN THE HWO AS SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE...DEPENDING
ON THE TRACK AND WARM AIR ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A PATTERN CHANGE AND RELATIVE WARM UP THEN SETS UP THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK AS WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING DEVELOPS. SHORTWAVES ARE
PROGGED TO EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...KEEPING PERIODIC RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE WITH A
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WAVE. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE
OVERDONE IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME...BUT WILL MONITOR AS A
DECENT SNOWPACK REMAINS.

ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE OFFERED A REASONABLE START TO THE
FORECAST...THOUGH MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LATEST GFS TO WARM SOME
TEMPS...WITH ADJUSTMENTS FOR PRECIP TYPE BASED ON GFS CRITICAL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS ADVECTED PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR
OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. WHILE THE SUN WAS UP...EVEN WITH
DRY ADVECTION...SOME STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPED OFF THE GREAT LAKES
EVEN WITH THE ICE COVER DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING WORKING WITH MODEST
HEAT/MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE FEW CRACKS THAT DO EXIST IN THE ICE. AS
THE EVENING ENSUES...EXPECT LOW LEVEL STABILITY TO MAKE LAKE
INDUCED STRATUS MORE DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO
A SCATTERING OUT OF LOW CLOUDS. THAT SAID...MID CLOUDS ARE SET TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT AS AN AREA OF INCREASED
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES FROM INDIANA THROUGH WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY MORNING...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHT WNW WINDS. FRIES

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 262343
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
643 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THIS
EVENING. DRY AND FRIGID CONDITIONS WILL END THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH 630PM UPDATE...PRIMARY CHANGES TO FORECAST WERE TO SKY COVER
AND TEMPERATURES. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO SCATTER OUT IN
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...AND WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COMING OVER
FROZEN LAKE ERIE...NOT SURE THERE WILL BE MUCH OF A MOISTURE
SOURCE FOR CLOUDS TO REFORM. AS A RESULT...HAVE MADE SOME DECREASE
TO CLOUDS IN THIS AREA OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE EXTENSIVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FOLLOWING THE CLEARING TREND...HAVE BLENDED SOME
RAP TEMPERATURES INTO THE FORECAST. THIS STARTS TO BRING OVERNIGHT
LOWS DOWN A FEW DEGREES WHERE THE GREATEST CLEARING WILL
OCCUR...WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN THICKEST. AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED...IF MORE SCATTERING
OCCURS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...SOME LOCATIONS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 COULD EASILY HAVE TEMPERATURES CRATER TO MINUS 10 OR
LOWER. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT THINK SUCH AN AGGRESSIVE CHANGE
NEEDS TO BE MADE TO THE FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VERY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING AS
THE ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE HI
RES MODELS HAVE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SNOWFALL BEFORE RAMPING UP
AGAIN AS THE ENTIRE COLUMN COOLS AND FALLS INTO THE -15 TO -20
RANGE. HOWEVER...THIS WINDOW IS RATHER SMALL FOR ALL BUT THE
RIDGES BEFORE SUBSIDENCE TAKES PLACE. THUS...SNOWFALL FORECAST
CHANGES WERE RATHER MINIMAL...ONLY ADDING ABOUT AN INCH TO THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF PA/WV/MD...AND GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH
ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. COLD ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
OR JUST BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT. AT THIS POINT...STAYED ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE AS EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
BOTTOMING OUT. HOWEVER...IF CLOUDS WERE TO SCATTER OUT
EARLY...TEMPERATURES COULD FALL OFF MUCH MORE WITH THE SNOWPACK
AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. EVEN IF TEMPS WERE TO FALL OFF MORE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST...THE LOW WINDS EXPECTED WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD LIMIT ANY CONCERNS FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORIES
OVERNIGHT. THUS...NO HEADLINES WERE ISSUED ON THIS SHIFT.

COLD ADVECTION AND SHOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DROP SIGNIFICANTLY ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE HELP OF STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SNOWPACK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE ON
SATURDAY HOWEVER...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WARM
ADVECTION ENSUES.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS APPROACH ON SUNDAY. AS OF NOW...THE
SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO MOVE RIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
WARM ADVECTION AND 850 TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH TO BRING A MIX TO
AREAS SOUTH OF I 80...WITH MAINLY SNOW TO THE NORTH. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS FEATURE
IN THE HWO AS SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE...DEPENDING
ON THE TRACK AND WARM AIR ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A PATTERN CHANGE AND RELATIVE WARM UP THEN SETS UP THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK AS WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING DEVELOPS. SHORTWAVES ARE
PROGGED TO EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...KEEPING PERIODIC RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE WITH A
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WAVE. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE
OVERDONE IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME...BUT WILL MONITOR AS A
DECENT SNOWPACK REMAINS.

ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE OFFERED A REASONABLE START TO THE
FORECAST...THOUGH MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LATEST GFS TO WARM SOME
TEMPS...WITH ADJUSTMENTS FOR PRECIP TYPE BASED ON GFS CRITICAL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS ADVECTED PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR
OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. WHILE THE SUN WAS UP...EVEN WITH
DRY ADVECTION...SOME STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPED OFF THE GREAT LAKES
EVEN WITH THE ICE COVER DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING WORKING WITH MODEST
HEAT/MOSITURE FLUX OFF THE FEW CRACKS THAT DO EXIST IN THE ICE. AS
THE EVENING ENSUES...EXPECT LOW LEVEL STABILITY TO MAKE LAKE
INDUCED STRATUS MORE DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO
A SCATTERING OUT OF LOW CLOUDS. THAT SAID...MID CLOUDS ARE SET TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT AS AN AREA OF INCREASED
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES FROM INDIANA THROUGH WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY MORNING...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHT WNW WINDS. FRIES

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 262343
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
643 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THIS
EVENING. DRY AND FRIGID CONDITIONS WILL END THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH 630PM UPDATE...PRIMARY CHANGES TO FORECAST WERE TO SKY COVER
AND TEMPERATURES. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO SCATTER OUT IN
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...AND WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COMING OVER
FROZEN LAKE ERIE...NOT SURE THERE WILL BE MUCH OF A MOISTURE
SOURCE FOR CLOUDS TO REFORM. AS A RESULT...HAVE MADE SOME DECREASE
TO CLOUDS IN THIS AREA OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE EXTENSIVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FOLLOWING THE CLEARING TREND...HAVE BLENDED SOME
RAP TEMPERATURES INTO THE FORECAST. THIS STARTS TO BRING OVERNIGHT
LOWS DOWN A FEW DEGREES WHERE THE GREATEST CLEARING WILL
OCCUR...WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN THICKEST. AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED...IF MORE SCATTERING
OCCURS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...SOME LOCATIONS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 COULD EASILY HAVE TEMPERATURES CRATER TO MINUS 10 OR
LOWER. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT THINK SUCH AN AGGRESSIVE CHANGE
NEEDS TO BE MADE TO THE FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VERY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING AS
THE ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE HI
RES MODELS HAVE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SNOWFALL BEFORE RAMPING UP
AGAIN AS THE ENTIRE COLUMN COOLS AND FALLS INTO THE -15 TO -20
RANGE. HOWEVER...THIS WINDOW IS RATHER SMALL FOR ALL BUT THE
RIDGES BEFORE SUBSIDENCE TAKES PLACE. THUS...SNOWFALL FORECAST
CHANGES WERE RATHER MINIMAL...ONLY ADDING ABOUT AN INCH TO THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF PA/WV/MD...AND GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH
ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. COLD ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
OR JUST BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT. AT THIS POINT...STAYED ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE AS EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
BOTTOMING OUT. HOWEVER...IF CLOUDS WERE TO SCATTER OUT
EARLY...TEMPERATURES COULD FALL OFF MUCH MORE WITH THE SNOWPACK
AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. EVEN IF TEMPS WERE TO FALL OFF MORE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST...THE LOW WINDS EXPECTED WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD LIMIT ANY CONCERNS FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORIES
OVERNIGHT. THUS...NO HEADLINES WERE ISSUED ON THIS SHIFT.

COLD ADVECTION AND SHOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DROP SIGNIFICANTLY ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE HELP OF STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SNOWPACK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE ON
SATURDAY HOWEVER...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WARM
ADVECTION ENSUES.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS APPROACH ON SUNDAY. AS OF NOW...THE
SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO MOVE RIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
WARM ADVECTION AND 850 TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH TO BRING A MIX TO
AREAS SOUTH OF I 80...WITH MAINLY SNOW TO THE NORTH. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS FEATURE
IN THE HWO AS SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE...DEPENDING
ON THE TRACK AND WARM AIR ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A PATTERN CHANGE AND RELATIVE WARM UP THEN SETS UP THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK AS WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING DEVELOPS. SHORTWAVES ARE
PROGGED TO EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...KEEPING PERIODIC RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE WITH A
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WAVE. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE
OVERDONE IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME...BUT WILL MONITOR AS A
DECENT SNOWPACK REMAINS.

ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE OFFERED A REASONABLE START TO THE
FORECAST...THOUGH MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LATEST GFS TO WARM SOME
TEMPS...WITH ADJUSTMENTS FOR PRECIP TYPE BASED ON GFS CRITICAL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS ADVECTED PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR
OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. WHILE THE SUN WAS UP...EVEN WITH
DRY ADVECTION...SOME STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPED OFF THE GREAT LAKES
EVEN WITH THE ICE COVER DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING WORKING WITH MODEST
HEAT/MOSITURE FLUX OFF THE FEW CRACKS THAT DO EXIST IN THE ICE. AS
THE EVENING ENSUES...EXPECT LOW LEVEL STABILITY TO MAKE LAKE
INDUCED STRATUS MORE DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO
A SCATTERING OUT OF LOW CLOUDS. THAT SAID...MID CLOUDS ARE SET TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT AS AN AREA OF INCREASED
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES FROM INDIANA THROUGH WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY MORNING...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHT WNW WINDS. FRIES

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 262343
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
643 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THIS
EVENING. DRY AND FRIGID CONDITIONS WILL END THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH 630PM UPDATE...PRIMARY CHANGES TO FORECAST WERE TO SKY COVER
AND TEMPERATURES. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO SCATTER OUT IN
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...AND WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COMING OVER
FROZEN LAKE ERIE...NOT SURE THERE WILL BE MUCH OF A MOISTURE
SOURCE FOR CLOUDS TO REFORM. AS A RESULT...HAVE MADE SOME DECREASE
TO CLOUDS IN THIS AREA OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE EXTENSIVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FOLLOWING THE CLEARING TREND...HAVE BLENDED SOME
RAP TEMPERATURES INTO THE FORECAST. THIS STARTS TO BRING OVERNIGHT
LOWS DOWN A FEW DEGREES WHERE THE GREATEST CLEARING WILL
OCCUR...WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN THICKEST. AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED...IF MORE SCATTERING
OCCURS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...SOME LOCATIONS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 COULD EASILY HAVE TEMPERATURES CRATER TO MINUS 10 OR
LOWER. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT THINK SUCH AN AGGRESSIVE CHANGE
NEEDS TO BE MADE TO THE FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VERY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING AS
THE ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE HI
RES MODELS HAVE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SNOWFALL BEFORE RAMPING UP
AGAIN AS THE ENTIRE COLUMN COOLS AND FALLS INTO THE -15 TO -20
RANGE. HOWEVER...THIS WINDOW IS RATHER SMALL FOR ALL BUT THE
RIDGES BEFORE SUBSIDENCE TAKES PLACE. THUS...SNOWFALL FORECAST
CHANGES WERE RATHER MINIMAL...ONLY ADDING ABOUT AN INCH TO THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF PA/WV/MD...AND GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH
ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. COLD ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
OR JUST BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT. AT THIS POINT...STAYED ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE AS EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
BOTTOMING OUT. HOWEVER...IF CLOUDS WERE TO SCATTER OUT
EARLY...TEMPERATURES COULD FALL OFF MUCH MORE WITH THE SNOWPACK
AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. EVEN IF TEMPS WERE TO FALL OFF MORE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST...THE LOW WINDS EXPECTED WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD LIMIT ANY CONCERNS FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORIES
OVERNIGHT. THUS...NO HEADLINES WERE ISSUED ON THIS SHIFT.

COLD ADVECTION AND SHOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DROP SIGNIFICANTLY ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE HELP OF STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SNOWPACK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE ON
SATURDAY HOWEVER...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WARM
ADVECTION ENSUES.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS APPROACH ON SUNDAY. AS OF NOW...THE
SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO MOVE RIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
WARM ADVECTION AND 850 TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH TO BRING A MIX TO
AREAS SOUTH OF I 80...WITH MAINLY SNOW TO THE NORTH. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS FEATURE
IN THE HWO AS SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE...DEPENDING
ON THE TRACK AND WARM AIR ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A PATTERN CHANGE AND RELATIVE WARM UP THEN SETS UP THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK AS WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING DEVELOPS. SHORTWAVES ARE
PROGGED TO EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...KEEPING PERIODIC RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE WITH A
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WAVE. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE
OVERDONE IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME...BUT WILL MONITOR AS A
DECENT SNOWPACK REMAINS.

ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE OFFERED A REASONABLE START TO THE
FORECAST...THOUGH MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LATEST GFS TO WARM SOME
TEMPS...WITH ADJUSTMENTS FOR PRECIP TYPE BASED ON GFS CRITICAL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS ADVECTED PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR
OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. WHILE THE SUN WAS UP...EVEN WITH
DRY ADVECTION...SOME STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPED OFF THE GREAT LAKES
EVEN WITH THE ICE COVER DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING WORKING WITH MODEST
HEAT/MOSITURE FLUX OFF THE FEW CRACKS THAT DO EXIST IN THE ICE. AS
THE EVENING ENSUES...EXPECT LOW LEVEL STABILITY TO MAKE LAKE
INDUCED STRATUS MORE DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO
A SCATTERING OUT OF LOW CLOUDS. THAT SAID...MID CLOUDS ARE SET TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT AS AN AREA OF INCREASED
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES FROM INDIANA THROUGH WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY MORNING...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHT WNW WINDS. FRIES

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 262343
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
643 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THIS
EVENING. DRY AND FRIGID CONDITIONS WILL END THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH 630PM UPDATE...PRIMARY CHANGES TO FORECAST WERE TO SKY COVER
AND TEMPERATURES. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO SCATTER OUT IN
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...AND WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COMING OVER
FROZEN LAKE ERIE...NOT SURE THERE WILL BE MUCH OF A MOISTURE
SOURCE FOR CLOUDS TO REFORM. AS A RESULT...HAVE MADE SOME DECREASE
TO CLOUDS IN THIS AREA OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE EXTENSIVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FOLLOWING THE CLEARING TREND...HAVE BLENDED SOME
RAP TEMPERATURES INTO THE FORECAST. THIS STARTS TO BRING OVERNIGHT
LOWS DOWN A FEW DEGREES WHERE THE GREATEST CLEARING WILL
OCCUR...WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN THICKEST. AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED...IF MORE SCATTERING
OCCURS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...SOME LOCATIONS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 COULD EASILY HAVE TEMPERATURES CRATER TO MINUS 10 OR
LOWER. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT THINK SUCH AN AGGRESSIVE CHANGE
NEEDS TO BE MADE TO THE FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VERY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING AS
THE ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE HI
RES MODELS HAVE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SNOWFALL BEFORE RAMPING UP
AGAIN AS THE ENTIRE COLUMN COOLS AND FALLS INTO THE -15 TO -20
RANGE. HOWEVER...THIS WINDOW IS RATHER SMALL FOR ALL BUT THE
RIDGES BEFORE SUBSIDENCE TAKES PLACE. THUS...SNOWFALL FORECAST
CHANGES WERE RATHER MINIMAL...ONLY ADDING ABOUT AN INCH TO THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF PA/WV/MD...AND GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH
ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. COLD ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
OR JUST BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT. AT THIS POINT...STAYED ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE AS EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
BOTTOMING OUT. HOWEVER...IF CLOUDS WERE TO SCATTER OUT
EARLY...TEMPERATURES COULD FALL OFF MUCH MORE WITH THE SNOWPACK
AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. EVEN IF TEMPS WERE TO FALL OFF MORE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST...THE LOW WINDS EXPECTED WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD LIMIT ANY CONCERNS FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORIES
OVERNIGHT. THUS...NO HEADLINES WERE ISSUED ON THIS SHIFT.

COLD ADVECTION AND SHOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DROP SIGNIFICANTLY ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE HELP OF STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SNOWPACK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE ON
SATURDAY HOWEVER...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WARM
ADVECTION ENSUES.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS APPROACH ON SUNDAY. AS OF NOW...THE
SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO MOVE RIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
WARM ADVECTION AND 850 TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH TO BRING A MIX TO
AREAS SOUTH OF I 80...WITH MAINLY SNOW TO THE NORTH. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS FEATURE
IN THE HWO AS SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE...DEPENDING
ON THE TRACK AND WARM AIR ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A PATTERN CHANGE AND RELATIVE WARM UP THEN SETS UP THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK AS WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING DEVELOPS. SHORTWAVES ARE
PROGGED TO EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...KEEPING PERIODIC RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE WITH A
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WAVE. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE
OVERDONE IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME...BUT WILL MONITOR AS A
DECENT SNOWPACK REMAINS.

ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE OFFERED A REASONABLE START TO THE
FORECAST...THOUGH MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LATEST GFS TO WARM SOME
TEMPS...WITH ADJUSTMENTS FOR PRECIP TYPE BASED ON GFS CRITICAL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS ADVECTED PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR
OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. WHILE THE SUN WAS UP...EVEN WITH
DRY ADVECTION...SOME STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPED OFF THE GREAT LAKES
EVEN WITH THE ICE COVER DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING WORKING WITH MODEST
HEAT/MOSITURE FLUX OFF THE FEW CRACKS THAT DO EXIST IN THE ICE. AS
THE EVENING ENSUES...EXPECT LOW LEVEL STABILITY TO MAKE LAKE
INDUCED STRATUS MORE DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO
A SCATTERING OUT OF LOW CLOUDS. THAT SAID...MID CLOUDS ARE SET TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT AS AN AREA OF INCREASED
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES FROM INDIANA THROUGH WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY MORNING...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHT WNW WINDS. FRIES

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 262126
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
426 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THIS
EVENING. DRY AND FRIGID CONDITIONS WILL END THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VERY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING AS
THE ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE HI
RES MODELS HAVE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SNOWFALL BEFORE RAMPING UP
AGAIN AS THE ENTIRE COLUMN COOLS AND FALLS INTO THE -15 TO -20
RANGE. HOWEVER...THIS WINDOW IS RATHER SMALL FOR ALL BUT THE
RIDGES BEFORE SUBSIDENCE TAKES PLACE. THUS...SNOWFALL FORECAST
CHANGES WERE RATHER MINIMAL...ONLY ADDING ABOUT AN INCH TO THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF PA/WV/MD...AND GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH
ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. COLD ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
OR JUST BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT. AT THIS POINT...STAYED ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE AS EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
BOTTOMING OUT. HOWEVER...IF CLOUDS WERE TO SCATTER OUT
EARLY...TEMPERATURES COULD FALL OFF MUCH MORE WITH THE SNOWPACK
AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. EVEN IF TEMPS WERE TO FALL OFF MORE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST...THE LOW WINDS EXPECTED WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD LIMIT ANY CONCERNS FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORIES
OVERNIGHT. THUS...NO HEADLINES WERE ISSUED ON THIS SHIFT.

COLD ADVECTION AND SHOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DROP SIGNIFICANTLY ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE HELP OF STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SNOWPACK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE ON
SATURDAY HOWEVER...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WARM
ADVECTION ENSUES.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS APPROACH ON SUNDAY. AS OF NOW...THE
SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO MOVE RIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
WARM ADVECTION AND 850 TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH TO BRING A MIX TO
AREAS SOUTH OF I 80...WITH MAINLY SNOW TO THE NORTH. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS FEATURE
IN THE HWO AS SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE...DEPENDING
ON THE TRACK AND WARM AIR ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A PATTERN CHANGE AND RELATIVE WARM UP THEN SETS UP THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK AS WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING DEVELOPS. SHORTWAVES ARE
PROGGED TO EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...KEEPING PERIODIC RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE WITH A
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WAVE. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE
OVERDONE IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME...BUT WILL MONITOR AS A
DECENT SNOWPACK REMAINS.

ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE OFFERED A REASONABLE START TO THE
FORECAST...THOUGH MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LATEST GFS TO WARM SOME
TEMPS...WITH ADJUSTMENTS FOR PRECIP TYPE BASED ON GFS CRITICAL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST PORTS AS CLOUDS INCREASE
WITH A COUPLE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVES. ANY SNOW FROM A WAVE
CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SHOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH. THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY
SHOULD SPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
AREA PORTS...AND THIS WAS ALREADY AFFECTING FKL THIS MORNING.
PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALSO THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM PIT NORTH. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
DECREASE AS SUPPORT EXITS TONIGHT...THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 262126
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
426 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THIS
EVENING. DRY AND FRIGID CONDITIONS WILL END THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VERY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING AS
THE ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE HI
RES MODELS HAVE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SNOWFALL BEFORE RAMPING UP
AGAIN AS THE ENTIRE COLUMN COOLS AND FALLS INTO THE -15 TO -20
RANGE. HOWEVER...THIS WINDOW IS RATHER SMALL FOR ALL BUT THE
RIDGES BEFORE SUBSIDENCE TAKES PLACE. THUS...SNOWFALL FORECAST
CHANGES WERE RATHER MINIMAL...ONLY ADDING ABOUT AN INCH TO THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF PA/WV/MD...AND GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH
ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. COLD ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
OR JUST BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT. AT THIS POINT...STAYED ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE AS EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
BOTTOMING OUT. HOWEVER...IF CLOUDS WERE TO SCATTER OUT
EARLY...TEMPERATURES COULD FALL OFF MUCH MORE WITH THE SNOWPACK
AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. EVEN IF TEMPS WERE TO FALL OFF MORE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST...THE LOW WINDS EXPECTED WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD LIMIT ANY CONCERNS FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORIES
OVERNIGHT. THUS...NO HEADLINES WERE ISSUED ON THIS SHIFT.

COLD ADVECTION AND SHOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DROP SIGNIFICANTLY ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE HELP OF STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SNOWPACK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE ON
SATURDAY HOWEVER...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WARM
ADVECTION ENSUES.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS APPROACH ON SUNDAY. AS OF NOW...THE
SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO MOVE RIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
WARM ADVECTION AND 850 TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH TO BRING A MIX TO
AREAS SOUTH OF I 80...WITH MAINLY SNOW TO THE NORTH. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS FEATURE
IN THE HWO AS SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE...DEPENDING
ON THE TRACK AND WARM AIR ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A PATTERN CHANGE AND RELATIVE WARM UP THEN SETS UP THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK AS WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING DEVELOPS. SHORTWAVES ARE
PROGGED TO EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...KEEPING PERIODIC RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE WITH A
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WAVE. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE
OVERDONE IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME...BUT WILL MONITOR AS A
DECENT SNOWPACK REMAINS.

ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE OFFERED A REASONABLE START TO THE
FORECAST...THOUGH MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LATEST GFS TO WARM SOME
TEMPS...WITH ADJUSTMENTS FOR PRECIP TYPE BASED ON GFS CRITICAL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST PORTS AS CLOUDS INCREASE
WITH A COUPLE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVES. ANY SNOW FROM A WAVE
CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SHOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH. THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY
SHOULD SPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
AREA PORTS...AND THIS WAS ALREADY AFFECTING FKL THIS MORNING.
PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALSO THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM PIT NORTH. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
DECREASE AS SUPPORT EXITS TONIGHT...THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 261639
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1139 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW TODAY. DRY AND
FRIGID CONDITIONS WILL END THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VERY DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE HAS PREVENTED MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SNOWFALL THIS MORNING DESPITE THE RADAR RETURNS. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY UNTIL SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MOISTURE AND LIFT APPROACHES WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE THIS EVE. AT THAT TIME...MODEL PROFILES SATURATE TO
700MB WITH MUCH OF THAT BEING IN THE -15 TO -20 RANGE...INDICATIVE
OF SLIGHTLY BETTER SNOWFALL POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THIS WINDOW IS
RATHER SMALL FOR ALL BUT THE RIDGES BEFORE SUBSIDENCE TAKES PLACE.
THUS...SNOWFALL FORECAST CHANGES WERE RATHER MINIMAL...ONLY ADDING
ABOUT AN INCH TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF PA/WV/MD...AND
GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE
AGAIN FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. RIGHT NOW WITH CLOUD COVER
REMAINING FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE REACHING
ANY LOW TEMP RECORDS. HOWEVER...SOME COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST OHIO
AND NORTHWESTERN PA MAY REACH WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR -10. RIGHT
NOW THE FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME...WITH WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY LOW
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ADVISORIES. WILL REEVALUATE FOR THE AFTERNOON
UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
INCREASED LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO THURS NIGHT...AS THE COLDER
AIR IS A BIT SLOWER TO MOVE IN. A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST GRADIENT
WILL BE PRESENT IN LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRI MORNING. LOWS
SHOULD BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES IN OH/PA. WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING...BUT
MARGINAL ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILL VALUES MAY OCCUR. CONFIDENCE IN
KEEPING WIND ABOVE 5KTS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME...PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY.

FRIDAY WILL FEATURE CLEARING SKIES...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE...TOPPING OUT IN THE TEENS. THIS IS DUE
TO THE MUCH COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE LATEST
FRONT. SUNSHINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL CHALLENGE THE COLD AIR AND MAY
BUMP HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES...BUT OVERALL A COLD DAY IS ON TAP.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING THE BOTTOM WILL
ONCE AGAIN FALL OUT ON THE TEMPERATURES AS IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL SET UP. DESPITE WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE IN THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVELS...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD DECOUPLE AND WONT ALLOW THE
WARMER AIR TO MIX DOWN. WITH THE REMAINING SNOWPACK IN
PLACE...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN DIP BELOW
ZERO...POSSIBLY CHALLENGING SOME DAILY LOW RECORDS. ONCE
AGAIN...LACK OF SURFACE FLOW WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY...BUT IT WILL BE COLD NEVERTHELESS.

SATURDAY OFFERS A QUICK WARM UP WITH MIXING OF THE WARMER AIR ALOFT
AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN STREAMING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY...BUT THE DRY TREND WILL HOLD THROUGH
SATURDAY.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED APPROACH AND
CROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WAVE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SOUTH OF I 80...WITH
MAINLY SNOW TO THE NORTH. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS TO INCLUDE AT
THIS TIME.

A PATTERN CHANGE AND RELATIVE WARM UP THEN SETS UP THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING DEVELOPS. SHORTWAVES ARE
PROGGED TO EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...KEEPING PERIODIC RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE WITH A
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WAVE. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE
OVERDONE IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME...BUT WILL MONITOR AS A
DECENT SNOWPACK REMAINS.

ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE OFFERED A REASONABLE START TO THE
FORECAST...THOUGH MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LATEST GFS TO WARM SOME
TEMPS...WITH ADJUSTMENTS FOR PRECIP TYPE BASED ON GFS CRITICAL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST PORTS AS CLOUDS INCREASE
WITH A COUPLE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVES. ANY SNOW FROM A WAVE
CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SHOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH. THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY
SHOULD SPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
AREA PORTS...AND THIS WAS ALREADY AFFECTING FKL THIS MORNING.
PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALSO THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM PIT NORTH. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
DECREASE AS SUPPORT EXITS TONIGHT...THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 261135
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
635 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW TODAY. DRY AND FRIGID
CONDITIONS WILL END THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS N OF I 80 WHERE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
RADAR SHOWED SNOW REACHING THE GROUND. PREVIOUS...CURRENT RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH VIRGA BEGINNING TO
ENCROACH THE AREA...SEEMINGLY FROM ALL SIDES. CURRENT DEWPOINT
SPREADS OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES AND A SIGNIFICANT LAYER OF DRY AIR
RECORDED ON THE 00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING WILL CONTINUE TO HAMPER
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW THIS MORNING.

AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GETS EJECTED FROM THE
REGION BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROF THIS MORNING...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
SKIRT THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE ZONES. THIS WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SNOW BANDS ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA. BEST CHANCE OF THIS HAPPENING WILL BE FROM
ABOUT SUNRISE THROUGH MIDDAY. CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA WILL
KEEP TODAYS HIGHS IN CHECK.

AT THE SAME TIME...A RELATIVELY DRY UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SWING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND DEEPEN THE MOISTURE OVER THE
EASTERN OH AND NORTHWEST PA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A GENERAL LACK OF
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE MODEST LIFT WITH THE APPROACHING
700MB TROF AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE LIGHT
SNOW. BY EVENING THE 850MB TROF IS CLEARING THE AREA AND WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING IN MUCH COLDER AIR AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES.

A COMBINATION OF THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE PASSAGE OF
THE MID-LEVEL TROF WILL GENERATE POSSIBLY THE BEST CHANCES OF SNOW
AREA WIDE FROM LATE EVENING TO MIDNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING AS 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW
-15C. CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT...BUT SNOW RATIOS SHOULD INCREASE AS THE COLDER AIR INVADES
THE MOISTURE SOURCE LAYER. ALL TOLD A QUICK COATING COULD FALL
THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF THE OH/WV BORDER...1-2" COULD
OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WV/PA/MD AS RESIDENCE TIME WILL BE
LONGER.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
INCREASED LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO THURS NIGHT...AS THE COLDER
AIR IS A BIT SLOWER TO MOVE IN. A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST GRADIENT
WILL BE PRESENT IN LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRI MORNING. LOWS
SHOULD BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES IN OH/PA. WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING...BUT
MARGINAL ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILL VALUES MAY OCCUR. CONFIDENCE IN
KEEPING WIND ABOVE 5KTS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME...PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY.

FRIDAY WILL FEATURE CLEARING SKIES...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE...TOPPING OUT IN THE TEENS. THIS IS DUE
TO THE MUCH COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE LATEST
FRONT. SUNSHINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL CHALLENGE THE COLD AIR AND MAY
BUMP HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES...BUT OVERALL A COLD DAY IS ON TAP.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING THE BOTTOM WILL
ONCE AGAIN FALL OUT ON THE TEMPERATURES AS IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL SET UP. DESPITE WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE IN THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVELS...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD DECOUPLE AND WONT ALLOW THE
WARMER AIR TO MIX DOWN. WITH THE REMAINING SNOWPACK IN
PLACE...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN DIP BELOW
ZERO...POSSIBLY CHALLENGING SOME DAILY LOW RECORDS. ONCE
AGAIN...LACK OF SURFACE FLOW WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY...BUT IT WILL BE COLD NEVERTHELESS.

SATURDAY OFFERS A QUICK WARM UP WITH MIXING OF THE WARMER AIR ALOFT
AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN STREAMING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY...BUT THE DRY TREND WILL HOLD THROUGH
SATURDAY.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED APPROACH AND
CROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WAVE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SOUTH OF I 80...WITH
MAINLY SNOW TO THE NORTH. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS TO INCLUDE AT
THIS TIME.

A PATTERN CHANGE AND RELATIVE WARM UP THEN SETS UP THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING DEVELOPS. SHORTWAVES ARE
PROGGED TO EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...KEEPING PERIODIC RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE WITH A
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WAVE. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE
OVERDONE IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME...BUT WILL MONITOR AS A
DECENT SNOWPACK REMAINS.

ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE OFFERED A REASONABLE START TO THE
FORECAST...THOUGH MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LATEST GFS TO WARM SOME
TEMPS...WITH ADJUSTMENTS FOR PRECIP TYPE BASED ON GFS CRITICAL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST PORTS INTO EARLY MORNING AS
CLOUDS INCREASE WITH A COUPLE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVES. ANY SNOW
FROM A WAVE CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SHOULD STAY TO OUR
SOUTH. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY SHOULD SPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS AREA PORTS...AND THIS WAS ALREADY AFFECTING FKL
THIS MORNING. PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALSO THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM PIT NORTH. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
DECREASE AS SUPPORT EXITS TONIGHT...THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 261135
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
635 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW TODAY. DRY AND FRIGID
CONDITIONS WILL END THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS N OF I 80 WHERE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
RADAR SHOWED SNOW REACHING THE GROUND. PREVIOUS...CURRENT RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH VIRGA BEGINNING TO
ENCROACH THE AREA...SEEMINGLY FROM ALL SIDES. CURRENT DEWPOINT
SPREADS OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES AND A SIGNIFICANT LAYER OF DRY AIR
RECORDED ON THE 00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING WILL CONTINUE TO HAMPER
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW THIS MORNING.

AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GETS EJECTED FROM THE
REGION BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROF THIS MORNING...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
SKIRT THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE ZONES. THIS WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SNOW BANDS ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA. BEST CHANCE OF THIS HAPPENING WILL BE FROM
ABOUT SUNRISE THROUGH MIDDAY. CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA WILL
KEEP TODAYS HIGHS IN CHECK.

AT THE SAME TIME...A RELATIVELY DRY UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SWING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND DEEPEN THE MOISTURE OVER THE
EASTERN OH AND NORTHWEST PA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A GENERAL LACK OF
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE MODEST LIFT WITH THE APPROACHING
700MB TROF AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE LIGHT
SNOW. BY EVENING THE 850MB TROF IS CLEARING THE AREA AND WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING IN MUCH COLDER AIR AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES.

A COMBINATION OF THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE PASSAGE OF
THE MID-LEVEL TROF WILL GENERATE POSSIBLY THE BEST CHANCES OF SNOW
AREA WIDE FROM LATE EVENING TO MIDNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING AS 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW
-15C. CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT...BUT SNOW RATIOS SHOULD INCREASE AS THE COLDER AIR INVADES
THE MOISTURE SOURCE LAYER. ALL TOLD A QUICK COATING COULD FALL
THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF THE OH/WV BORDER...1-2" COULD
OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WV/PA/MD AS RESIDENCE TIME WILL BE
LONGER.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
INCREASED LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO THURS NIGHT...AS THE COLDER
AIR IS A BIT SLOWER TO MOVE IN. A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST GRADIENT
WILL BE PRESENT IN LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRI MORNING. LOWS
SHOULD BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES IN OH/PA. WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING...BUT
MARGINAL ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILL VALUES MAY OCCUR. CONFIDENCE IN
KEEPING WIND ABOVE 5KTS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME...PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY.

FRIDAY WILL FEATURE CLEARING SKIES...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE...TOPPING OUT IN THE TEENS. THIS IS DUE
TO THE MUCH COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE LATEST
FRONT. SUNSHINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL CHALLENGE THE COLD AIR AND MAY
BUMP HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES...BUT OVERALL A COLD DAY IS ON TAP.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING THE BOTTOM WILL
ONCE AGAIN FALL OUT ON THE TEMPERATURES AS IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL SET UP. DESPITE WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE IN THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVELS...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD DECOUPLE AND WONT ALLOW THE
WARMER AIR TO MIX DOWN. WITH THE REMAINING SNOWPACK IN
PLACE...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN DIP BELOW
ZERO...POSSIBLY CHALLENGING SOME DAILY LOW RECORDS. ONCE
AGAIN...LACK OF SURFACE FLOW WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY...BUT IT WILL BE COLD NEVERTHELESS.

SATURDAY OFFERS A QUICK WARM UP WITH MIXING OF THE WARMER AIR ALOFT
AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN STREAMING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY...BUT THE DRY TREND WILL HOLD THROUGH
SATURDAY.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED APPROACH AND
CROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WAVE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SOUTH OF I 80...WITH
MAINLY SNOW TO THE NORTH. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS TO INCLUDE AT
THIS TIME.

A PATTERN CHANGE AND RELATIVE WARM UP THEN SETS UP THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING DEVELOPS. SHORTWAVES ARE
PROGGED TO EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...KEEPING PERIODIC RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE WITH A
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WAVE. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE
OVERDONE IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME...BUT WILL MONITOR AS A
DECENT SNOWPACK REMAINS.

ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE OFFERED A REASONABLE START TO THE
FORECAST...THOUGH MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LATEST GFS TO WARM SOME
TEMPS...WITH ADJUSTMENTS FOR PRECIP TYPE BASED ON GFS CRITICAL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST PORTS INTO EARLY MORNING AS
CLOUDS INCREASE WITH A COUPLE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVES. ANY SNOW
FROM A WAVE CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SHOULD STAY TO OUR
SOUTH. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY SHOULD SPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS AREA PORTS...AND THIS WAS ALREADY AFFECTING FKL
THIS MORNING. PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALSO THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM PIT NORTH. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
DECREASE AS SUPPORT EXITS TONIGHT...THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 261135
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
635 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW TODAY. DRY AND FRIGID
CONDITIONS WILL END THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS N OF I 80 WHERE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
RADAR SHOWED SNOW REACHING THE GROUND. PREVIOUS...CURRENT RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH VIRGA BEGINNING TO
ENCROACH THE AREA...SEEMINGLY FROM ALL SIDES. CURRENT DEWPOINT
SPREADS OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES AND A SIGNIFICANT LAYER OF DRY AIR
RECORDED ON THE 00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING WILL CONTINUE TO HAMPER
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW THIS MORNING.

AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GETS EJECTED FROM THE
REGION BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROF THIS MORNING...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
SKIRT THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE ZONES. THIS WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SNOW BANDS ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA. BEST CHANCE OF THIS HAPPENING WILL BE FROM
ABOUT SUNRISE THROUGH MIDDAY. CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA WILL
KEEP TODAYS HIGHS IN CHECK.

AT THE SAME TIME...A RELATIVELY DRY UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SWING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND DEEPEN THE MOISTURE OVER THE
EASTERN OH AND NORTHWEST PA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A GENERAL LACK OF
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE MODEST LIFT WITH THE APPROACHING
700MB TROF AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE LIGHT
SNOW. BY EVENING THE 850MB TROF IS CLEARING THE AREA AND WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING IN MUCH COLDER AIR AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES.

A COMBINATION OF THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE PASSAGE OF
THE MID-LEVEL TROF WILL GENERATE POSSIBLY THE BEST CHANCES OF SNOW
AREA WIDE FROM LATE EVENING TO MIDNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING AS 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW
-15C. CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT...BUT SNOW RATIOS SHOULD INCREASE AS THE COLDER AIR INVADES
THE MOISTURE SOURCE LAYER. ALL TOLD A QUICK COATING COULD FALL
THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF THE OH/WV BORDER...1-2" COULD
OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WV/PA/MD AS RESIDENCE TIME WILL BE
LONGER.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
INCREASED LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO THURS NIGHT...AS THE COLDER
AIR IS A BIT SLOWER TO MOVE IN. A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST GRADIENT
WILL BE PRESENT IN LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRI MORNING. LOWS
SHOULD BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES IN OH/PA. WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING...BUT
MARGINAL ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILL VALUES MAY OCCUR. CONFIDENCE IN
KEEPING WIND ABOVE 5KTS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME...PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY.

FRIDAY WILL FEATURE CLEARING SKIES...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE...TOPPING OUT IN THE TEENS. THIS IS DUE
TO THE MUCH COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE LATEST
FRONT. SUNSHINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL CHALLENGE THE COLD AIR AND MAY
BUMP HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES...BUT OVERALL A COLD DAY IS ON TAP.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING THE BOTTOM WILL
ONCE AGAIN FALL OUT ON THE TEMPERATURES AS IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL SET UP. DESPITE WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE IN THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVELS...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD DECOUPLE AND WONT ALLOW THE
WARMER AIR TO MIX DOWN. WITH THE REMAINING SNOWPACK IN
PLACE...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN DIP BELOW
ZERO...POSSIBLY CHALLENGING SOME DAILY LOW RECORDS. ONCE
AGAIN...LACK OF SURFACE FLOW WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY...BUT IT WILL BE COLD NEVERTHELESS.

SATURDAY OFFERS A QUICK WARM UP WITH MIXING OF THE WARMER AIR ALOFT
AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN STREAMING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY...BUT THE DRY TREND WILL HOLD THROUGH
SATURDAY.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED APPROACH AND
CROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WAVE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SOUTH OF I 80...WITH
MAINLY SNOW TO THE NORTH. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS TO INCLUDE AT
THIS TIME.

A PATTERN CHANGE AND RELATIVE WARM UP THEN SETS UP THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING DEVELOPS. SHORTWAVES ARE
PROGGED TO EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...KEEPING PERIODIC RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE WITH A
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WAVE. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE
OVERDONE IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME...BUT WILL MONITOR AS A
DECENT SNOWPACK REMAINS.

ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE OFFERED A REASONABLE START TO THE
FORECAST...THOUGH MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LATEST GFS TO WARM SOME
TEMPS...WITH ADJUSTMENTS FOR PRECIP TYPE BASED ON GFS CRITICAL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST PORTS INTO EARLY MORNING AS
CLOUDS INCREASE WITH A COUPLE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVES. ANY SNOW
FROM A WAVE CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SHOULD STAY TO OUR
SOUTH. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY SHOULD SPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS AREA PORTS...AND THIS WAS ALREADY AFFECTING FKL
THIS MORNING. PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALSO THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM PIT NORTH. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
DECREASE AS SUPPORT EXITS TONIGHT...THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260942
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
251 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY AND FRIGID
CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH VIRGA
BEGINNING TO ENCROACH THE AREA...SEEMINGLY FROM ALL SIDES. CURRENT
DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES AND A SIGNIFICANT LAYER OF DRY
AIR RECORDED ON THE 00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING WILL CONTINUE TO HAMPER
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW THIS MORNING.

AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GETS EJECTED FROM THE
REGION BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROF THIS MORNING...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
SKIRT THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE ZONES. THIS WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SNOW BANDS ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA. BEST CHANCE OF THIS HAPPENING WILL BE FROM
ABOUT SUNRISE THROUGH MIDDAY. CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA WILL
KEEP TODAYS HIGHS IN CHECK.

AT THE SAME TIME...A RELATIVELY DRY UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SWING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND DEEPEN THE MOISTURE OVER THE
EASTERN OH AND NORTHWEST PA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A GENERAL LACK OF
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE MODEST LIFT WITH THE APPROACHING
700MB TROF AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE LIGHT
SNOW. BY EVENING THE 850MB TROF IS CLEARING THE AREA AND WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING IN MUCH COLDER AIR AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES.

A COMBINATION OF THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE PASSAGE OF
THE MID-LEVEL TROF WILL GENERATE POSSIBLY THE BEST CHANCES OF SNOW
AREA WIDE FROM LATE EVENING TO MIDNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING AS 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW
-15C. CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT...BUT SNOW RATIOS SHOULD INCREASE AS THE COLDER AIR INVADES
THE MOISTURE SOURCE LAYER. ALL TOLD A QUICK COATING COULD FALL
THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF THE OH/WV BORDER...1-2" COULD
OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WV/PA/MD AS RESIDENCE TIME WILL BE
LONGER.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
INCREASED LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO THURS NIGHT...AS THE COLDER
AIR IS A BIT SLOWER TO MOVE IN. A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST GRADIENT
WILL BE PRESENT IN LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRI MORNING. LOWS
SHOULD BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES IN OH/PA. WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING...BUT
MARGINAL ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILL VALUES MAY OCCUR. CONFIDENCE IN
KEEPING WIND ABOVE 5KTS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME...PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY.

FRIDAY WILL FEATURE CLEARING SKIES...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE...TOPPING OUT IN THE TEENS. THIS IS DUE
TO THE MUCH COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE LATEST
FRONT. SUNSHINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL CHALLENGE THE COLD AIR AND MAY
BUMP HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES...BUT OVERALL A COLD DAY IS ON TAP.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING THE BOTTOM WILL
ONCE AGAIN FALL OUT ON THE TEMPERATURES AS IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL SET UP. DESPITE WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE IN THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVELS...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD DECOUPLE AND WONT ALLOW THE
WARMER AIR TO MIX DOWN. WITH THE REMAINING SNOWPACK IN
PLACE...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN DIP BELOW
ZERO...POSSIBLY CHALLENGING SOME DAILY LOW RECORDS. ONCE
AGAIN...LACK OF SURFACE FLOW WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY...BUT IT WILL BE COLD NEVERTHELESS.

SATURDAY OFFERS A QUICK WARM UP WITH MIXING OF THE WARMER AIR ALOFT
AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN STREAMING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY...BUT THE DRY TREND WILL HOLD THROUGH
SATURDAY.
TAX



&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED APPROACH AND
CROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WAVE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SOUTH OF I 80...WITH
MAINLY SNOW TO THE NORTH. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS TO INCLUDE AT
THIS TIME.

A PATTERN CHANGE AND RELATIVE WARM UP THEN SETS UP THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING DEVELOPS. SHORTWAVES ARE
PROGGED TO EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...KEEPING PERIODIC RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE WITH A
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WAVE. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE
OVERDONE IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME...BUT WILL MONITOR AS A
DECENT SNOWPACK REMAINS.

ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE OFFERED A REASONABLE START TO THE
FORECAST...THOUGH MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LATEST GFS TO WARM SOME
TEMPS...WITH ADJUSTMENTS FOR PRECIP TYPE BASED ON GFS CRITICAL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY MORNING AS CLOUDS INCREASE
WITH A COUPLE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVES. ANY SNOW FROM A WAVE
CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SHOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH. THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING SHOULD SPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...THOUGH FKL AND DUJ ARE PROGGED TO SEE
BETTER MOISTURE AND STRONGER LIFT WHICH COULD PRODUCE IFR
VISIBILITIES BY THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE AS
SUPPORT EXITS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260942
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
251 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY AND FRIGID
CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH VIRGA
BEGINNING TO ENCROACH THE AREA...SEEMINGLY FROM ALL SIDES. CURRENT
DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES AND A SIGNIFICANT LAYER OF DRY
AIR RECORDED ON THE 00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING WILL CONTINUE TO HAMPER
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW THIS MORNING.

AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GETS EJECTED FROM THE
REGION BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROF THIS MORNING...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
SKIRT THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE ZONES. THIS WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SNOW BANDS ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA. BEST CHANCE OF THIS HAPPENING WILL BE FROM
ABOUT SUNRISE THROUGH MIDDAY. CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA WILL
KEEP TODAYS HIGHS IN CHECK.

AT THE SAME TIME...A RELATIVELY DRY UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SWING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND DEEPEN THE MOISTURE OVER THE
EASTERN OH AND NORTHWEST PA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A GENERAL LACK OF
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE MODEST LIFT WITH THE APPROACHING
700MB TROF AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE LIGHT
SNOW. BY EVENING THE 850MB TROF IS CLEARING THE AREA AND WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING IN MUCH COLDER AIR AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES.

A COMBINATION OF THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE PASSAGE OF
THE MID-LEVEL TROF WILL GENERATE POSSIBLY THE BEST CHANCES OF SNOW
AREA WIDE FROM LATE EVENING TO MIDNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING AS 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW
-15C. CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT...BUT SNOW RATIOS SHOULD INCREASE AS THE COLDER AIR INVADES
THE MOISTURE SOURCE LAYER. ALL TOLD A QUICK COATING COULD FALL
THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF THE OH/WV BORDER...1-2" COULD
OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WV/PA/MD AS RESIDENCE TIME WILL BE
LONGER.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
INCREASED LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO THURS NIGHT...AS THE COLDER
AIR IS A BIT SLOWER TO MOVE IN. A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST GRADIENT
WILL BE PRESENT IN LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRI MORNING. LOWS
SHOULD BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES IN OH/PA. WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING...BUT
MARGINAL ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILL VALUES MAY OCCUR. CONFIDENCE IN
KEEPING WIND ABOVE 5KTS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME...PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY.

FRIDAY WILL FEATURE CLEARING SKIES...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE...TOPPING OUT IN THE TEENS. THIS IS DUE
TO THE MUCH COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE LATEST
FRONT. SUNSHINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL CHALLENGE THE COLD AIR AND MAY
BUMP HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES...BUT OVERALL A COLD DAY IS ON TAP.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING THE BOTTOM WILL
ONCE AGAIN FALL OUT ON THE TEMPERATURES AS IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL SET UP. DESPITE WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE IN THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVELS...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD DECOUPLE AND WONT ALLOW THE
WARMER AIR TO MIX DOWN. WITH THE REMAINING SNOWPACK IN
PLACE...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN DIP BELOW
ZERO...POSSIBLY CHALLENGING SOME DAILY LOW RECORDS. ONCE
AGAIN...LACK OF SURFACE FLOW WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY...BUT IT WILL BE COLD NEVERTHELESS.

SATURDAY OFFERS A QUICK WARM UP WITH MIXING OF THE WARMER AIR ALOFT
AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN STREAMING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY...BUT THE DRY TREND WILL HOLD THROUGH
SATURDAY.
TAX



&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED APPROACH AND
CROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WAVE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SOUTH OF I 80...WITH
MAINLY SNOW TO THE NORTH. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS TO INCLUDE AT
THIS TIME.

A PATTERN CHANGE AND RELATIVE WARM UP THEN SETS UP THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING DEVELOPS. SHORTWAVES ARE
PROGGED TO EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...KEEPING PERIODIC RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE WITH A
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WAVE. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE
OVERDONE IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME...BUT WILL MONITOR AS A
DECENT SNOWPACK REMAINS.

ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE OFFERED A REASONABLE START TO THE
FORECAST...THOUGH MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LATEST GFS TO WARM SOME
TEMPS...WITH ADJUSTMENTS FOR PRECIP TYPE BASED ON GFS CRITICAL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY MORNING AS CLOUDS INCREASE
WITH A COUPLE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVES. ANY SNOW FROM A WAVE
CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SHOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH. THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING SHOULD SPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...THOUGH FKL AND DUJ ARE PROGGED TO SEE
BETTER MOISTURE AND STRONGER LIFT WHICH COULD PRODUCE IFR
VISIBILITIES BY THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE AS
SUPPORT EXITS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260647
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
147 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY AND FRIGID
CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING ECHOES BEGINNING TO ENCROACH THE
AREA...SEEMINGLY FROM ALL SIDES. HOWEVER...CURRENT DEWPOINT
SPREADS OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES AND A SIGNIFICANT LAYER OF DRY AIR
RECORDED ON THE 00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING HAVE KEPT ACTUAL
PRECIPITATION AT BAY. THIS WILL MORE THAN LIKELY CONTINUE FOR
SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE THE DRY AIR IS ERODED ENOUGH FOR THE
SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND. THUS...HAVE PUSHED BACK TIMING OF POPS
THIS MORNING BY A FEW HOURS.

AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GETS EJECTED FROM THE
REGION BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROF THIS MORNING...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
SKIRT THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE ZONES. THIS WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SNOW BANDS ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA. BEST CHANCE OF THIS HAPPENING WILL BE FROM
ABOUT SUNRISE THROUGH MIDDAY. CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA WILL
KEEP TODAYS HIGHS IN CHECK.

AT THE SAME TIME...A RELATIVELY DRY UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SWING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND DEEPEN THE MOISTURE OVER THE
EASTERN OH AND NORTHWEST PA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A GENERAL LACK OF
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE MODEST LIFT WITH THE APPROACHING
700MB TROF AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE LIGHT
SNOW. BY EVENING THE 850MB TROF IS CLEARING THE AREA AND WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING IN MUCH COLDER AIR AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES.

A COMBINATION OF THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE PASSAGE OF
THE MID-LEVEL TROF WILL GENERATE POSSIBLY THE BEST CHANCES OF SNOW
AREA WIDE FROM LATE EVENING TO MIDNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING AS 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW
-15C. CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT...BUT SNOW RATIOS SHOULD INCREASE AS THE COLDER AIR INVADES
THE MOISTURE SOURCE LAYER. ALL TOLD A QUICK COATING COULD FALL
THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF THE OH/WV BORDER...1-2" COULD
OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WV/PA/MD AS RESIDENCE TIME WILL BE
LONGER. INCREASED LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO THURS NIGHT...AS THE COLDER
AIR IS A BIT SLOWER TO MOVE IN. A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST GRADIENT
WILL BE PRESENT IN LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRI MORNING. LOWS
SHOULD BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES IN OH/PA. WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING...BUT
MARGINAL ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILL VALUES MAY OCCUR. CONFIDENCE IN
KEEPING WIND ABOVE 5KTS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME...PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY.
TAX


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST THURSDAY EVENING
WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM -18 TO -20C BY 12Z FRIDAY BASED ON
THE NAM. THIS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH
BELOW ZERO READING ACROSS THE NORTH. ARCTIC HIGH WILL BUILD OVER
REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURE 25 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS
OVER SNOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO PUSH EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE 20S WITH NEAR 30 FOR
THE MASON DIXON LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WERE MADE MAINLY FOR COORDINATION
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

MARCH BEGINS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEING SHUNTED TO OUR EAST AS A
LONGWAVE TROF DIGS IN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY BRING A CHANGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE ZONAL
REGIME. A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A LOOSE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY LATE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVERAGE...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES. GIVEN THE RECENT COLD
TEMPERATURES...SFC TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN BEING
INCLUDED IN FUTURE UPDATES. AT THE MOMENT...INCLUSION OF A FEW
HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN IS A BIT TOO FINE SCALE AND THUS CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES A BIT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT SIGNS
POINT TO ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING EAST
MID WEEK WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY MORNING AS CLOUDS INCREASE
WITH A COUPLE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVES. ANY SNOW FROM A WAVE
CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SHOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH. THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING SHOULD SPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...THOUGH FKL AND DUJ ARE PROGGED TO SEE
BETTER MOISTURE AND STRONGER LIFT WHICH COULD PRODUCE IFR
VISIBILITIES BY THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE AS
SUPPORT EXITS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260647
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
147 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY AND FRIGID
CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING ECHOES BEGINNING TO ENCROACH THE
AREA...SEEMINGLY FROM ALL SIDES. HOWEVER...CURRENT DEWPOINT
SPREADS OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES AND A SIGNIFICANT LAYER OF DRY AIR
RECORDED ON THE 00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING HAVE KEPT ACTUAL
PRECIPITATION AT BAY. THIS WILL MORE THAN LIKELY CONTINUE FOR
SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE THE DRY AIR IS ERODED ENOUGH FOR THE
SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND. THUS...HAVE PUSHED BACK TIMING OF POPS
THIS MORNING BY A FEW HOURS.

AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GETS EJECTED FROM THE
REGION BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROF THIS MORNING...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
SKIRT THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE ZONES. THIS WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SNOW BANDS ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA. BEST CHANCE OF THIS HAPPENING WILL BE FROM
ABOUT SUNRISE THROUGH MIDDAY. CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA WILL
KEEP TODAYS HIGHS IN CHECK.

AT THE SAME TIME...A RELATIVELY DRY UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SWING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND DEEPEN THE MOISTURE OVER THE
EASTERN OH AND NORTHWEST PA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A GENERAL LACK OF
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE MODEST LIFT WITH THE APPROACHING
700MB TROF AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE LIGHT
SNOW. BY EVENING THE 850MB TROF IS CLEARING THE AREA AND WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING IN MUCH COLDER AIR AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES.

A COMBINATION OF THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE PASSAGE OF
THE MID-LEVEL TROF WILL GENERATE POSSIBLY THE BEST CHANCES OF SNOW
AREA WIDE FROM LATE EVENING TO MIDNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING AS 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW
-15C. CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT...BUT SNOW RATIOS SHOULD INCREASE AS THE COLDER AIR INVADES
THE MOISTURE SOURCE LAYER. ALL TOLD A QUICK COATING COULD FALL
THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF THE OH/WV BORDER...1-2" COULD
OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WV/PA/MD AS RESIDENCE TIME WILL BE
LONGER. INCREASED LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO THURS NIGHT...AS THE COLDER
AIR IS A BIT SLOWER TO MOVE IN. A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST GRADIENT
WILL BE PRESENT IN LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRI MORNING. LOWS
SHOULD BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES IN OH/PA. WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING...BUT
MARGINAL ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILL VALUES MAY OCCUR. CONFIDENCE IN
KEEPING WIND ABOVE 5KTS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME...PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY.
TAX


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST THURSDAY EVENING
WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM -18 TO -20C BY 12Z FRIDAY BASED ON
THE NAM. THIS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH
BELOW ZERO READING ACROSS THE NORTH. ARCTIC HIGH WILL BUILD OVER
REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURE 25 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS
OVER SNOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO PUSH EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE 20S WITH NEAR 30 FOR
THE MASON DIXON LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WERE MADE MAINLY FOR COORDINATION
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

MARCH BEGINS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEING SHUNTED TO OUR EAST AS A
LONGWAVE TROF DIGS IN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY BRING A CHANGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE ZONAL
REGIME. A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A LOOSE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY LATE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVERAGE...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES. GIVEN THE RECENT COLD
TEMPERATURES...SFC TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN BEING
INCLUDED IN FUTURE UPDATES. AT THE MOMENT...INCLUSION OF A FEW
HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN IS A BIT TOO FINE SCALE AND THUS CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES A BIT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT SIGNS
POINT TO ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING EAST
MID WEEK WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY MORNING AS CLOUDS INCREASE
WITH A COUPLE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVES. ANY SNOW FROM A WAVE
CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SHOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH. THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING SHOULD SPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...THOUGH FKL AND DUJ ARE PROGGED TO SEE
BETTER MOISTURE AND STRONGER LIFT WHICH COULD PRODUCE IFR
VISIBILITIES BY THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE AS
SUPPORT EXITS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260647
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
147 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY AND FRIGID
CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING ECHOES BEGINNING TO ENCROACH THE
AREA...SEEMINGLY FROM ALL SIDES. HOWEVER...CURRENT DEWPOINT
SPREADS OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES AND A SIGNIFICANT LAYER OF DRY AIR
RECORDED ON THE 00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING HAVE KEPT ACTUAL
PRECIPITATION AT BAY. THIS WILL MORE THAN LIKELY CONTINUE FOR
SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE THE DRY AIR IS ERODED ENOUGH FOR THE
SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND. THUS...HAVE PUSHED BACK TIMING OF POPS
THIS MORNING BY A FEW HOURS.

AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GETS EJECTED FROM THE
REGION BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROF THIS MORNING...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
SKIRT THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE ZONES. THIS WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SNOW BANDS ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA. BEST CHANCE OF THIS HAPPENING WILL BE FROM
ABOUT SUNRISE THROUGH MIDDAY. CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA WILL
KEEP TODAYS HIGHS IN CHECK.

AT THE SAME TIME...A RELATIVELY DRY UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SWING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND DEEPEN THE MOISTURE OVER THE
EASTERN OH AND NORTHWEST PA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A GENERAL LACK OF
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE MODEST LIFT WITH THE APPROACHING
700MB TROF AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE LIGHT
SNOW. BY EVENING THE 850MB TROF IS CLEARING THE AREA AND WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING IN MUCH COLDER AIR AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES.

A COMBINATION OF THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE PASSAGE OF
THE MID-LEVEL TROF WILL GENERATE POSSIBLY THE BEST CHANCES OF SNOW
AREA WIDE FROM LATE EVENING TO MIDNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING AS 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW
-15C. CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT...BUT SNOW RATIOS SHOULD INCREASE AS THE COLDER AIR INVADES
THE MOISTURE SOURCE LAYER. ALL TOLD A QUICK COATING COULD FALL
THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF THE OH/WV BORDER...1-2" COULD
OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WV/PA/MD AS RESIDENCE TIME WILL BE
LONGER. INCREASED LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO THURS NIGHT...AS THE COLDER
AIR IS A BIT SLOWER TO MOVE IN. A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST GRADIENT
WILL BE PRESENT IN LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRI MORNING. LOWS
SHOULD BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES IN OH/PA. WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING...BUT
MARGINAL ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILL VALUES MAY OCCUR. CONFIDENCE IN
KEEPING WIND ABOVE 5KTS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME...PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY.
TAX


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST THURSDAY EVENING
WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM -18 TO -20C BY 12Z FRIDAY BASED ON
THE NAM. THIS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH
BELOW ZERO READING ACROSS THE NORTH. ARCTIC HIGH WILL BUILD OVER
REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURE 25 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS
OVER SNOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO PUSH EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE 20S WITH NEAR 30 FOR
THE MASON DIXON LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WERE MADE MAINLY FOR COORDINATION
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

MARCH BEGINS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEING SHUNTED TO OUR EAST AS A
LONGWAVE TROF DIGS IN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY BRING A CHANGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE ZONAL
REGIME. A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A LOOSE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY LATE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVERAGE...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES. GIVEN THE RECENT COLD
TEMPERATURES...SFC TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN BEING
INCLUDED IN FUTURE UPDATES. AT THE MOMENT...INCLUSION OF A FEW
HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN IS A BIT TOO FINE SCALE AND THUS CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES A BIT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT SIGNS
POINT TO ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING EAST
MID WEEK WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY MORNING AS CLOUDS INCREASE
WITH A COUPLE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVES. ANY SNOW FROM A WAVE
CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SHOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH. THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING SHOULD SPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...THOUGH FKL AND DUJ ARE PROGGED TO SEE
BETTER MOISTURE AND STRONGER LIFT WHICH COULD PRODUCE IFR
VISIBILITIES BY THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE AS
SUPPORT EXITS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260519
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1219 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY AND FRIGID
CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
9 PM UPDATE...NO REAL CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE. JUST MADE SOME
MINOR CHANGES TO POPS LATE TONIGHT AND UPDATED TEMPS TO LATEST
GUIDANCE. REST IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

COLD ADVECTION AT 850MB TONIGHT WHILE WINDS ALOFT BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WHILE A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS PUTS THE BULK OF
THE REGION IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE. LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD TOWARD THE RIDGES BEFORE DAYBREAK FROM
THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...WHILE SNOW SHOWERS WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. AN INCH OR SO FOR THE HIGHER RIDGES AND
LESS THAN AN INCH NEAR THE I-80 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT TRICKY WITH CLOUD COVER FIGHTING THE COLD ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS FAR NORTH TO UPPER TEENS FAR SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE TEENS AND 20S THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST THURSDAY EVENING
WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM -18 TO -20C BY 12Z FRIDAY BASED ON
THE NAM. THIS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH
BELOW ZERO READING ACROSS THE NORTH. ARCTIC HIGH WILL BUILD OVER
REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURE 25 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS
OVER SNOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO PUSH EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE 20S WITH NEAR 30 FOR
THE MASON DIXON LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WERE MADE MAINLY FOR COORDINATION
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

MARCH BEGINS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEING SHUNTED TO OUR EAST AS A
LONGWAVE TROF DIGS IN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY BRING A CHANGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE ZONAL
REGIME. A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A LOOSE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY LATE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVERAGE...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES. GIVEN THE RECENT COLD
TEMPERATURES...SFC TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN BEING
INCLUDED IN FUTURE UPDATES. AT THE MOMENT...INCLUSION OF A FEW
HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN IS A BIT TOO FINE SCALE AND THUS CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES A BIT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT SIGNS
POINT TO ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING EAST
MID WEEK WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY MORNING AS CLOUDS INCREASE
WITH A COUPLE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVES. ANY SNOW FROM A WAVE
CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SHOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH. THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING SHOULD SPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...THOUGH FKL AND DUJ ARE PROGGED TO SEE
BETTER MOISTURE AND STRONGER LIFT WHICH COULD PRODUCE IFR
VISIBILITIES BY THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE AS
SUPPORT EXITS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260519
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1219 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY AND FRIGID
CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
9 PM UPDATE...NO REAL CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE. JUST MADE SOME
MINOR CHANGES TO POPS LATE TONIGHT AND UPDATED TEMPS TO LATEST
GUIDANCE. REST IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

COLD ADVECTION AT 850MB TONIGHT WHILE WINDS ALOFT BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WHILE A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS PUTS THE BULK OF
THE REGION IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE. LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD TOWARD THE RIDGES BEFORE DAYBREAK FROM
THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...WHILE SNOW SHOWERS WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. AN INCH OR SO FOR THE HIGHER RIDGES AND
LESS THAN AN INCH NEAR THE I-80 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT TRICKY WITH CLOUD COVER FIGHTING THE COLD ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS FAR NORTH TO UPPER TEENS FAR SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE TEENS AND 20S THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST THURSDAY EVENING
WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM -18 TO -20C BY 12Z FRIDAY BASED ON
THE NAM. THIS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH
BELOW ZERO READING ACROSS THE NORTH. ARCTIC HIGH WILL BUILD OVER
REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURE 25 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS
OVER SNOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO PUSH EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE 20S WITH NEAR 30 FOR
THE MASON DIXON LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WERE MADE MAINLY FOR COORDINATION
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

MARCH BEGINS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEING SHUNTED TO OUR EAST AS A
LONGWAVE TROF DIGS IN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY BRING A CHANGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE ZONAL
REGIME. A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A LOOSE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY LATE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVERAGE...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES. GIVEN THE RECENT COLD
TEMPERATURES...SFC TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN BEING
INCLUDED IN FUTURE UPDATES. AT THE MOMENT...INCLUSION OF A FEW
HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN IS A BIT TOO FINE SCALE AND THUS CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES A BIT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT SIGNS
POINT TO ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING EAST
MID WEEK WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY MORNING AS CLOUDS INCREASE
WITH A COUPLE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVES. ANY SNOW FROM A WAVE
CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SHOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH. THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING SHOULD SPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...THOUGH FKL AND DUJ ARE PROGGED TO SEE
BETTER MOISTURE AND STRONGER LIFT WHICH COULD PRODUCE IFR
VISIBILITIES BY THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE AS
SUPPORT EXITS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260203 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
903 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY AND FRIGID
CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
9 PM UPDATE...NO REAL CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE. JUST MADE SOME
MINOR CHANGES TO POPS LATE TONIGHT AND UPDATED TEMPS TO LATEST
GUIDANCE. REST IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

COLD ADVECTION AT 850MB TONIGHT WHILE WINDS ALOFT BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WHILE A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS PUTS THE BULK OF
THE REGION IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE. LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD TOWARD THE RIDGES BEFORE DAYBREAK FROM
THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...WHILE SNOW SHOWERS WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. AN INCH OR SO FOR THE HIGHER RIDGES AND
LESS THAN AN INCH NEAR THE I-80 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT TRICKY WITH CLOUD COVER FIGHTING THE COLD ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS FAR NORTH TO UPPER TEENS FAR SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE TEENS AND 20S THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST THURSDAY EVENING
WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM -18 TO -20C BY 12Z FRIDAY BASED ON
THE NAM. THIS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH
BELOW ZERO READING ACROSS THE NORTH. ARCTIC HIGH WILL BUILD OVER
REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURE 25 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS
OVER SNOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO PUSH EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE 20S WITH NEAR 30 FOR
THE MASON DIXON LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WERE MADE MAINLY FOR COORDINATION
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

MARCH BEGINS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEING SHUNTED TO OUR EAST AS A
LONGWAVE TROF DIGS IN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY BRING A CHANGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE ZONAL
REGIME. A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A LOOSE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY LATE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVERAGE...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES. GIVEN THE RECENT COLD
TEMPERATURES...SFC TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN BEING
INCLUDED IN FUTURE UPDATES. AT THE MOMENT...INCLUSION OF A FEW
HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN IS A BIT TOO FINE SCALE AND THUS CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES A BIT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT SIGNS
POINT TO ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING EAST
MID WEEK WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH
CLOUDS ROLL INTO THE AREA AND SLOWLY LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING AND
EARLY OVERNIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL LOWERING OF THE CLOUDS IS LIKELY
WITH THIS SYSTEM BY EARLY THURSDAY. WHILE THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY SOUTH...A DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL SOME MOISTURE IN FROM THIS
SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW
ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES BY TOMORROW MORNING...WITH PERIODIC IFR
VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. FOR NOW...OPTED TO TREND TO MVFR CONDITIONS
BY TOMORROW MORNING...LEAVING PREVAILING IFR OUT.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. RESTRICTION POSSIBILITIES
WILL RETURN LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 252315
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
615 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY AND FRIGID
CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
6 PM UPDATE...JUST SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AS BROAD CIRRUS SHIELD OVERSPREADS THE
REGION. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY THANKS TO THE COMBINATION
OF CLOUD COVER AND WARMER AIR ALOFT NUDGING IN OVER THE SOUTH. IN
SPITE OF ALL OF THIS...A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS FLOW WILL REINFORCE
THE DRY AIR MASS NEAR THE SURFACE AND MAKE THE OVERNIGHT TEMP
FORECAST DIFFICULT. A THERMAL GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE SHOWS UP
NICELY ON THE LATEST OBS WITH TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE TEENS
WHILE TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. THIS SETUP
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS TO THE NORTH.
RAISED TEMPS JUST A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

COLD ADVECTION AT 850MB TONIGHT WHILE WINDS ALOFT BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WHILE A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS PUTS THE BULK OF
THE REGION IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE. LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD TOWARD THE RIDGES BEFORE DAYBREAK FROM
THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...WHILE SNOW SHOWERS WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. AN INCH OR SO FOR THE HIGHER RIDGES AND
LESS THAN AN INCH NEAR THE I-80 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT TRICKY WITH CLOUD COVER FIGHTING THE COLD ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS FAR NORTH TO UPPER TEENS FAR SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE TEENS AND 20S THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST THURSDAY EVENING
WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM -18 TO -20C BY 12Z FRIDAY BASED ON
THE NAM. THIS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH
BELOW ZERO READING ACROSS THE NORTH. ARCTIC HIGH WILL BUILD OVER
REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURE 25 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS
OVER SNOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO PUSH EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE 20S WITH NEAR 30 FOR
THE MASON DIXON LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WERE MADE MAINLY FOR COORDINATION
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

MARCH BEGINS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEING SHUNTED TO OUR EAST AS A
LONGWAVE TROF DIGS IN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY BRING A CHANGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE ZONAL
REGIME. A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A LOOSE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY LATE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVERAGE...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES. GIVEN THE RECENT COLD
TEMPERATURES...SFC TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN BEING
INCLUDED IN FUTURE UPDATES. AT THE MOMENT...INCLUSION OF A FEW
HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN IS A BIT TOO FINE SCALE AND THUS CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES A BIT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT SIGNS
POINT TO ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING EAST
MID WEEK WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH
CLOUDS ROLL INTO THE AREA AND SLOWLY LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING AND
EARLY OVERNIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL LOWERING OF THE CLOUDS IS LIKELY
WITH THIS SYSTEM BY EARLY THURSDAY. WHILE THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY SOUTH...A DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL SOME MOISTURE IN FROM THIS
SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW
ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES BY TOMORROW MORNING...WITH PERIODIC IFR
VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. FOR NOW...OPTED TO TREND TO MVFR CONDITIONS
BY TOMORROW MORNING...LEAVING PREVAILING IFR OUT.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. RESTRICTION POSSIBILITIES
WILL RETURN LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 252315
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
615 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY AND FRIGID
CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
6 PM UPDATE...JUST SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AS BROAD CIRRUS SHIELD OVERSPREADS THE
REGION. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY THANKS TO THE COMBINATION
OF CLOUD COVER AND WARMER AIR ALOFT NUDGING IN OVER THE SOUTH. IN
SPITE OF ALL OF THIS...A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS FLOW WILL REINFORCE
THE DRY AIR MASS NEAR THE SURFACE AND MAKE THE OVERNIGHT TEMP
FORECAST DIFFICULT. A THERMAL GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE SHOWS UP
NICELY ON THE LATEST OBS WITH TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE TEENS
WHILE TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. THIS SETUP
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS TO THE NORTH.
RAISED TEMPS JUST A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

COLD ADVECTION AT 850MB TONIGHT WHILE WINDS ALOFT BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WHILE A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS PUTS THE BULK OF
THE REGION IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE. LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD TOWARD THE RIDGES BEFORE DAYBREAK FROM
THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...WHILE SNOW SHOWERS WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. AN INCH OR SO FOR THE HIGHER RIDGES AND
LESS THAN AN INCH NEAR THE I-80 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT TRICKY WITH CLOUD COVER FIGHTING THE COLD ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS FAR NORTH TO UPPER TEENS FAR SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE TEENS AND 20S THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST THURSDAY EVENING
WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM -18 TO -20C BY 12Z FRIDAY BASED ON
THE NAM. THIS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH
BELOW ZERO READING ACROSS THE NORTH. ARCTIC HIGH WILL BUILD OVER
REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURE 25 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS
OVER SNOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO PUSH EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE 20S WITH NEAR 30 FOR
THE MASON DIXON LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WERE MADE MAINLY FOR COORDINATION
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

MARCH BEGINS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEING SHUNTED TO OUR EAST AS A
LONGWAVE TROF DIGS IN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY BRING A CHANGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE ZONAL
REGIME. A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A LOOSE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY LATE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVERAGE...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES. GIVEN THE RECENT COLD
TEMPERATURES...SFC TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN BEING
INCLUDED IN FUTURE UPDATES. AT THE MOMENT...INCLUSION OF A FEW
HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN IS A BIT TOO FINE SCALE AND THUS CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES A BIT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT SIGNS
POINT TO ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING EAST
MID WEEK WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH
CLOUDS ROLL INTO THE AREA AND SLOWLY LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING AND
EARLY OVERNIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL LOWERING OF THE CLOUDS IS LIKELY
WITH THIS SYSTEM BY EARLY THURSDAY. WHILE THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY SOUTH...A DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL SOME MOISTURE IN FROM THIS
SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW
ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES BY TOMORROW MORNING...WITH PERIODIC IFR
VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. FOR NOW...OPTED TO TREND TO MVFR CONDITIONS
BY TOMORROW MORNING...LEAVING PREVAILING IFR OUT.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. RESTRICTION POSSIBILITIES
WILL RETURN LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 252302 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
602 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY AND FRIGID
CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
6 PM UPDATE...JUST SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AS BROAD CIRRUS SHIELD OVERSPREADS THE
REGION. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY THANKS TO THE COMBINATION
OF CLOUD COVER AND WARMER AIR ALOFT NUDGING IN OVER THE SOUTH. IN
SPITE OF ALL OF THIS...A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS FLOW WILL REINFORCE
THE DRY AIR MASS NEAR THE SURFACE AND MAKE THE OVERNIGHT TEMP
FORECAST DIFFICULT. A THERMAL GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE SHOWS UP
NICELY ON THE LATEST OBS WITH TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE TEENS
WHILE TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. THIS SETUP
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS TO THE NORTH.
RAISED TEMPS JUST A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

COLD ADVECTION AT 850MB TONIGHT WHILE WINDS ALOFT BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WHILE A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS PUTS THE BULK OF
THE REGION IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE. LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD TOWARD THE RIDGES BEFORE DAYBREAK FROM
THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...WHILE SNOW SHOWERS WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. AN INCH OR SO FOR THE HIGHER RIDGES AND
LESS THAN AN INCH NEAR THE I-80 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT TRICKY WITH CLOUD COVER FIGHTING THE COLD ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS FAR NORTH TO UPPER TEENS FAR SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE TEENS AND 20S THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST THURSDAY EVENING
WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM -18 TO -20C BY 12Z FRIDAY BASED ON
THE NAM. THIS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH
BELOW ZERO READING ACROSS THE NORTH. ARCTIC HIGH WILL BUILD OVER
REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURE 25 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS
OVER SNOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO PUSH EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE 20S WITH NEAR 30 FOR
THE MASON DIXON LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WERE MADE MAINLY FOR COORDINATION
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

MARCH BEGINS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEING SHUNTED TO OUR EAST AS A
LONGWAVE TROF DIGS IN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY BRING A CHANGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE ZONAL
REGIME. A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A LOOSE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY LATE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVERAGE...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES. GIVEN THE RECENT COLD
TEMPERATURES...SFC TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN BEING
INCLUDED IN FUTURE UPDATES. AT THE MOMENT...INCLUSION OF A FEW
HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN IS A BIT TOO FINE SCALE AND THUS CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES A BIT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT SIGNS
POINT TO ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING EAST
MID WEEK WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SOME MVFR STRATOCUMULUS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAGGING COLD FRONT MAY OCCASIONAL IMPACT KFKL
AND KDUJ FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BUT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
EXPECTED AND FORECAST.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WHILE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
STAY SOUTH...A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL
SOME MOISTURE IN FROM THIS SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH PERIODIC IFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. FOR NOW...OPTED
TO TREND TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW MORNING...LEAVING
PREVAILING IFR OUT.

WNW WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE E-NE OVERNIGHT. WIND
GUSTS WILL DIMINISH UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. RESTRICTION POSSIBILITIES
WILL RETURN LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 252302 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
602 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY AND FRIGID
CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
6 PM UPDATE...JUST SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AS BROAD CIRRUS SHIELD OVERSPREADS THE
REGION. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY THANKS TO THE COMBINATION
OF CLOUD COVER AND WARMER AIR ALOFT NUDGING IN OVER THE SOUTH. IN
SPITE OF ALL OF THIS...A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS FLOW WILL REINFORCE
THE DRY AIR MASS NEAR THE SURFACE AND MAKE THE OVERNIGHT TEMP
FORECAST DIFFICULT. A THERMAL GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE SHOWS UP
NICELY ON THE LATEST OBS WITH TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE TEENS
WHILE TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. THIS SETUP
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS TO THE NORTH.
RAISED TEMPS JUST A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

COLD ADVECTION AT 850MB TONIGHT WHILE WINDS ALOFT BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WHILE A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS PUTS THE BULK OF
THE REGION IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE. LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD TOWARD THE RIDGES BEFORE DAYBREAK FROM
THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...WHILE SNOW SHOWERS WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. AN INCH OR SO FOR THE HIGHER RIDGES AND
LESS THAN AN INCH NEAR THE I-80 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT TRICKY WITH CLOUD COVER FIGHTING THE COLD ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS FAR NORTH TO UPPER TEENS FAR SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE TEENS AND 20S THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST THURSDAY EVENING
WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM -18 TO -20C BY 12Z FRIDAY BASED ON
THE NAM. THIS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH
BELOW ZERO READING ACROSS THE NORTH. ARCTIC HIGH WILL BUILD OVER
REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURE 25 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS
OVER SNOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO PUSH EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE 20S WITH NEAR 30 FOR
THE MASON DIXON LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WERE MADE MAINLY FOR COORDINATION
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

MARCH BEGINS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEING SHUNTED TO OUR EAST AS A
LONGWAVE TROF DIGS IN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY BRING A CHANGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE ZONAL
REGIME. A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A LOOSE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY LATE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVERAGE...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES. GIVEN THE RECENT COLD
TEMPERATURES...SFC TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN BEING
INCLUDED IN FUTURE UPDATES. AT THE MOMENT...INCLUSION OF A FEW
HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN IS A BIT TOO FINE SCALE AND THUS CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES A BIT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT SIGNS
POINT TO ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING EAST
MID WEEK WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SOME MVFR STRATOCUMULUS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAGGING COLD FRONT MAY OCCASIONAL IMPACT KFKL
AND KDUJ FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BUT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
EXPECTED AND FORECAST.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WHILE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
STAY SOUTH...A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL
SOME MOISTURE IN FROM THIS SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH PERIODIC IFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. FOR NOW...OPTED
TO TREND TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW MORNING...LEAVING
PREVAILING IFR OUT.

WNW WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE E-NE OVERNIGHT. WIND
GUSTS WILL DIMINISH UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. RESTRICTION POSSIBILITIES
WILL RETURN LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 252302 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
602 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY AND FRIGID
CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
6 PM UPDATE...JUST SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AS BROAD CIRRUS SHIELD OVERSPREADS THE
REGION. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY THANKS TO THE COMBINATION
OF CLOUD COVER AND WARMER AIR ALOFT NUDGING IN OVER THE SOUTH. IN
SPITE OF ALL OF THIS...A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS FLOW WILL REINFORCE
THE DRY AIR MASS NEAR THE SURFACE AND MAKE THE OVERNIGHT TEMP
FORECAST DIFFICULT. A THERMAL GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE SHOWS UP
NICELY ON THE LATEST OBS WITH TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE TEENS
WHILE TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. THIS SETUP
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS TO THE NORTH.
RAISED TEMPS JUST A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

COLD ADVECTION AT 850MB TONIGHT WHILE WINDS ALOFT BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WHILE A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS PUTS THE BULK OF
THE REGION IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE. LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD TOWARD THE RIDGES BEFORE DAYBREAK FROM
THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...WHILE SNOW SHOWERS WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. AN INCH OR SO FOR THE HIGHER RIDGES AND
LESS THAN AN INCH NEAR THE I-80 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT TRICKY WITH CLOUD COVER FIGHTING THE COLD ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS FAR NORTH TO UPPER TEENS FAR SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE TEENS AND 20S THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST THURSDAY EVENING
WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM -18 TO -20C BY 12Z FRIDAY BASED ON
THE NAM. THIS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH
BELOW ZERO READING ACROSS THE NORTH. ARCTIC HIGH WILL BUILD OVER
REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURE 25 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS
OVER SNOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO PUSH EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE 20S WITH NEAR 30 FOR
THE MASON DIXON LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WERE MADE MAINLY FOR COORDINATION
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

MARCH BEGINS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEING SHUNTED TO OUR EAST AS A
LONGWAVE TROF DIGS IN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY BRING A CHANGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE ZONAL
REGIME. A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A LOOSE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY LATE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVERAGE...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES. GIVEN THE RECENT COLD
TEMPERATURES...SFC TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN BEING
INCLUDED IN FUTURE UPDATES. AT THE MOMENT...INCLUSION OF A FEW
HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN IS A BIT TOO FINE SCALE AND THUS CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES A BIT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT SIGNS
POINT TO ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING EAST
MID WEEK WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SOME MVFR STRATOCUMULUS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAGGING COLD FRONT MAY OCCASIONAL IMPACT KFKL
AND KDUJ FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BUT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
EXPECTED AND FORECAST.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WHILE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
STAY SOUTH...A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL
SOME MOISTURE IN FROM THIS SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH PERIODIC IFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. FOR NOW...OPTED
TO TREND TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW MORNING...LEAVING
PREVAILING IFR OUT.

WNW WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE E-NE OVERNIGHT. WIND
GUSTS WILL DIMINISH UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. RESTRICTION POSSIBILITIES
WILL RETURN LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 252302 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
602 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY AND FRIGID
CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
6 PM UPDATE...JUST SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AS BROAD CIRRUS SHIELD OVERSPREADS THE
REGION. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY THANKS TO THE COMBINATION
OF CLOUD COVER AND WARMER AIR ALOFT NUDGING IN OVER THE SOUTH. IN
SPITE OF ALL OF THIS...A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS FLOW WILL REINFORCE
THE DRY AIR MASS NEAR THE SURFACE AND MAKE THE OVERNIGHT TEMP
FORECAST DIFFICULT. A THERMAL GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE SHOWS UP
NICELY ON THE LATEST OBS WITH TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE TEENS
WHILE TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. THIS SETUP
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS TO THE NORTH.
RAISED TEMPS JUST A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

COLD ADVECTION AT 850MB TONIGHT WHILE WINDS ALOFT BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WHILE A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS PUTS THE BULK OF
THE REGION IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE. LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD TOWARD THE RIDGES BEFORE DAYBREAK FROM
THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...WHILE SNOW SHOWERS WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. AN INCH OR SO FOR THE HIGHER RIDGES AND
LESS THAN AN INCH NEAR THE I-80 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT TRICKY WITH CLOUD COVER FIGHTING THE COLD ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS FAR NORTH TO UPPER TEENS FAR SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE TEENS AND 20S THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST THURSDAY EVENING
WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM -18 TO -20C BY 12Z FRIDAY BASED ON
THE NAM. THIS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH
BELOW ZERO READING ACROSS THE NORTH. ARCTIC HIGH WILL BUILD OVER
REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURE 25 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS
OVER SNOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO PUSH EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE 20S WITH NEAR 30 FOR
THE MASON DIXON LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WERE MADE MAINLY FOR COORDINATION
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

MARCH BEGINS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEING SHUNTED TO OUR EAST AS A
LONGWAVE TROF DIGS IN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY BRING A CHANGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE ZONAL
REGIME. A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A LOOSE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY LATE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVERAGE...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES. GIVEN THE RECENT COLD
TEMPERATURES...SFC TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN BEING
INCLUDED IN FUTURE UPDATES. AT THE MOMENT...INCLUSION OF A FEW
HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN IS A BIT TOO FINE SCALE AND THUS CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES A BIT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT SIGNS
POINT TO ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING EAST
MID WEEK WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SOME MVFR STRATOCUMULUS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAGGING COLD FRONT MAY OCCASIONAL IMPACT KFKL
AND KDUJ FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BUT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
EXPECTED AND FORECAST.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WHILE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
STAY SOUTH...A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL
SOME MOISTURE IN FROM THIS SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH PERIODIC IFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. FOR NOW...OPTED
TO TREND TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW MORNING...LEAVING
PREVAILING IFR OUT.

WNW WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE E-NE OVERNIGHT. WIND
GUSTS WILL DIMINISH UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. RESTRICTION POSSIBILITIES
WILL RETURN LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251956
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
256 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY AND FRIGID
CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD ADVECTION AT 850MB TONIGHT WHILE WINDS ALOFT BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WHILE A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS PUTS THE BULK OF
THE REGION IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE. LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD TOWARD THE RIDGES BEFORE DAYBREAK FROM
THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...WHILE SNOW SHOWERS WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. AN INCH OR SO FOR THE HIGHER RIDGES AND
LESS THAN AN INCH NEAR THE I-80 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT TRICKY WITH CLOUD COVER FIGHTING THE COLD ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS FAR NORTH TO UPPER TEENS FAR SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE TEENS AND 20S THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST THURSDAY EVENING
WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM -18 TO -20C BY 12Z FRIDAY BASED ON
THE NAM. THIS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH
BELOW ZERO READING ACROSS THE NORTH. ARCTIC HIGH WILL BUILD OVER
REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURE 25 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS
OVER SNOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO PUSH EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE 20S WITH NEAR 30 FOR
THE MASON DIXON LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WERE MADE MAINLY FOR COORDINATION
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

MARCH BEGINS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEING SHUNTED TO OUR EAST AS A
LONGWAVE TROF DIGS IN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY BRING A CHANGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE ZONAL
REGIME. A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A LOOSE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY LATE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVERAGE...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES. GIVEN THE RECENT COLD
TEMPERATURES...SFC TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN BEING
INCLUDED IN FUTURE UPDATES. AT THE MOMENT...INCLUSION OF A FEW
HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN IS A BIT TOO FINE SCALE AND THUS CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES A BIT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT SIGNS
POINT TO ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING EAST
MID WEEK WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SOME MVFR STRATOCUMULUS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAGGING COLD FRONT MAY OCCASIONAL IMPACT KFKL
AND KDUJ FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BUT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
EXPECTED AND FORECAST.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WHILE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
STAY SOUTH...A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL
SOME MOISTURE IN FROM THIS SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH PERIODIC IFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. FOR NOW...OPTED
TO TREND TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW MORNING...LEAVING
PREVAILING IFR OUT.

WNW WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE E-NE OVERNIGHT. WIND
GUSTS WILL DIMINISH UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. RESTRICTION POSSIBILITIES
WILL RETURN LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251756
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1256 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
DRY AND FRIGID CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIND SHIFT WITH LEADING EDGE OF 850MB COLD ADVECTION EXTENDS FROM
NEAR INDIANA TO PITTSBURGH AND NEW PHILADELPHIA. BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ON THE WANE FROM DUBOIS TO BUTLER SHOULD DISSIPATE
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR 2 THIS
AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT OBS.

COLD 850MB AIR WILL INVADE TONIGHT WHILE WINDS ALOFT BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND MOISTURE ADVECTION RAMPS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. LOCATIONS WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW
STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE I80 CORRIDOR. MOISTURE IS LACKING THE LOWER LEVELS...AND DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS ONCE AGAIN BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY TAPER DOWN FRI AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE FULLY EVACUATES THE COLUMN FRIDAY EVENING
WITH SKIES CLEARING. DRY AIR...CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND
PRESUMABLY A REMNANT SNOW PACK WILL RESULT IN STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND ULTIMATELY TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT BELOW ZERO.
CURRENT FORECAST LOWS WOULD BREAK SEVERAL DAILY TEMPERATURE
RECORDS...SOME LONG STANDING AND SOME AS RECENTLY ESTABLISHED AS
LAST YEAR. CALM WINDS WILL PRECLUDE THE NECESSITY FOR WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES. THE BEAT GOES ON IN A FEBRUARY THAT HAS BEEN FAR FROM
NORMAL. MAYBE MARCH WILL ROAR IN WITH A WARMER PATTERN...
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MARCH BEGINS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEING SHUNTED TO OUR EAST AS A
LONGWAVE TROF DIGS IN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY BRING A CHANGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE ZONAL
REGIME. A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A LOOSE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY LATE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY SHOULD BE IN THE BALLPARK OF NORMALS...WHICH MEANS LIQUID
PRECIPITATION TYPES COME BACK INTO THE MIX. GIVEN THE RECENT COLD
TEMPERATURES...SFC TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN BEING
INCLUDED IN FUTURE UPDATES. AT THE MOMENT...INCLUSION OF A FEW HOURS
OF FREEZING RAIN IS A BIT TOO FINE SCALE AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES A BIT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT SIGNS
POINT TO CONTINUED WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS ANOTHER POSSIBLE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE CURRENT TRACK HAS THE SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WELL TO OUR WEST. THIS MEANS A WARM AND WET SOLN WILL BE FAVORED.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SOME MVFR STRATOCUMULUS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAGGING COLD FRONT MAY OCCASIONAL IMPACT KFKL
AND KDUJ FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BUT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
EXPECTED AND FORECAST.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WHILE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
STAY SOUTH...A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL
SOME MOISTURE IN FROM THIS SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH PERIODIC IFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. FOR NOW...OPTED
TO TREND TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW MORNING...LEAVING
PREVAILING IFR OUT.

WNW WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE E-NE OVERNIGHT. WIND
GUSTS WILL DIMINISH UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. RESTRICTION POSSIBILITIES
WILL RETURN LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$












000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251756
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1256 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
DRY AND FRIGID CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIND SHIFT WITH LEADING EDGE OF 850MB COLD ADVECTION EXTENDS FROM
NEAR INDIANA TO PITTSBURGH AND NEW PHILADELPHIA. BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ON THE WANE FROM DUBOIS TO BUTLER SHOULD DISSIPATE
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR 2 THIS
AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT OBS.

COLD 850MB AIR WILL INVADE TONIGHT WHILE WINDS ALOFT BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND MOISTURE ADVECTION RAMPS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. LOCATIONS WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW
STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE I80 CORRIDOR. MOISTURE IS LACKING THE LOWER LEVELS...AND DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS ONCE AGAIN BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY TAPER DOWN FRI AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE FULLY EVACUATES THE COLUMN FRIDAY EVENING
WITH SKIES CLEARING. DRY AIR...CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND
PRESUMABLY A REMNANT SNOW PACK WILL RESULT IN STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND ULTIMATELY TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT BELOW ZERO.
CURRENT FORECAST LOWS WOULD BREAK SEVERAL DAILY TEMPERATURE
RECORDS...SOME LONG STANDING AND SOME AS RECENTLY ESTABLISHED AS
LAST YEAR. CALM WINDS WILL PRECLUDE THE NECESSITY FOR WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES. THE BEAT GOES ON IN A FEBRUARY THAT HAS BEEN FAR FROM
NORMAL. MAYBE MARCH WILL ROAR IN WITH A WARMER PATTERN...
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MARCH BEGINS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEING SHUNTED TO OUR EAST AS A
LONGWAVE TROF DIGS IN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY BRING A CHANGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE ZONAL
REGIME. A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A LOOSE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY LATE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY SHOULD BE IN THE BALLPARK OF NORMALS...WHICH MEANS LIQUID
PRECIPITATION TYPES COME BACK INTO THE MIX. GIVEN THE RECENT COLD
TEMPERATURES...SFC TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN BEING
INCLUDED IN FUTURE UPDATES. AT THE MOMENT...INCLUSION OF A FEW HOURS
OF FREEZING RAIN IS A BIT TOO FINE SCALE AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES A BIT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT SIGNS
POINT TO CONTINUED WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS ANOTHER POSSIBLE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE CURRENT TRACK HAS THE SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WELL TO OUR WEST. THIS MEANS A WARM AND WET SOLN WILL BE FAVORED.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SOME MVFR STRATOCUMULUS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAGGING COLD FRONT MAY OCCASIONAL IMPACT KFKL
AND KDUJ FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BUT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
EXPECTED AND FORECAST.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WHILE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
STAY SOUTH...A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL
SOME MOISTURE IN FROM THIS SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH PERIODIC IFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. FOR NOW...OPTED
TO TREND TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW MORNING...LEAVING
PREVAILING IFR OUT.

WNW WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE E-NE OVERNIGHT. WIND
GUSTS WILL DIMINISH UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. RESTRICTION POSSIBILITIES
WILL RETURN LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251627
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1127 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
DRY AND FRIGID CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIND SHIFT WITH LEADING EDGE OF 850MB COLD ADVECTION EXTENDS FROM
NEAR INDIANA TO PITTSBURGH AND NEW PHILADELPHIA. BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ON THE WANE FROM DUBOIS TO BUTLER SHOULD DISSIPATE
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR 2 THIS
AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT OBS.

COLD 850MB AIR WILL INVADE TONIGHT WHILE WINDS ALOFT BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND MOISTURE ADVECTION RAMPS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. LOCATIONS WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW
STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE I80 CORRIDOR. MOISTURE IS LACKING THE LOWER LEVELS...AND DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS ONCE AGAIN BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY TAPER DOWN FRI AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE FULLY EVACUATES THE COLUMN FRIDAY EVENING
WITH SKIES CLEARING. DRY AIR...CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND
PRESUMABLY A REMNANT SNOW PACK WILL RESULT IN STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND ULTIMATELY TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT BELOW ZERO.
CURRENT FORECAST LOWS WOULD BREAK SEVERAL DAILY TEMPERATURE
RECORDS...SOME LONG STANDING AND SOME AS RECENTLY ESTABLISHED AS
LAST YEAR. CALM WINDS WILL PRECLUDE THE NECESSITY FOR WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES. THE BEAT GOES ON IN A FEBRUARY THAT HAS BEEN FAR FROM
NORMAL. MAYBE MARCH WILL ROAR IN WITH A WARMER PATTERN...
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MARCH BEGINS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEING SHUNTED TO OUR EAST AS A
LONGWAVE TROF DIGS IN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY BRING A CHANGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE ZONAL
REGIME. A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A LOOSE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY LATE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY SHOULD BE IN THE BALLPARK OF NORMALS...WHICH MEANS LIQUID
PRECIPITATION TYPES COME BACK INTO THE MIX. GIVEN THE RECENT COLD
TEMPERATURES...SFC TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN BEING
INCLUDED IN FUTURE UPDATES. AT THE MOMENT...INCLUSION OF A FEW HOURS
OF FREEZING RAIN IS A BIT TOO FINE SCALE AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES A BIT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT SIGNS
POINT TO CONTINUED WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS ANOTHER POSSIBLE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE CURRENT TRACK HAS THE SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WELL TO OUR WEST. THIS MEANS A WARM AND WET SOLN WILL BE FAVORED.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CIGS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF VISIBILITY BEING REDUCED TO TWO
TO THREE MILES BRIEFLY UNTIL 18Z OR SO FOR KDUJ. OTHERWISE BASED
ON LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO LOW VFR LEVELS
EARLY AFTERNOON. GENERAL VFR WITH INCREASING MID DECK OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN AREA WIDE THURSDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH. VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251627
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1127 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
DRY AND FRIGID CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIND SHIFT WITH LEADING EDGE OF 850MB COLD ADVECTION EXTENDS FROM
NEAR INDIANA TO PITTSBURGH AND NEW PHILADELPHIA. BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ON THE WANE FROM DUBOIS TO BUTLER SHOULD DISSIPATE
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR 2 THIS
AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT OBS.

COLD 850MB AIR WILL INVADE TONIGHT WHILE WINDS ALOFT BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND MOISTURE ADVECTION RAMPS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. LOCATIONS WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW
STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE I80 CORRIDOR. MOISTURE IS LACKING THE LOWER LEVELS...AND DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS ONCE AGAIN BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY TAPER DOWN FRI AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE FULLY EVACUATES THE COLUMN FRIDAY EVENING
WITH SKIES CLEARING. DRY AIR...CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND
PRESUMABLY A REMNANT SNOW PACK WILL RESULT IN STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND ULTIMATELY TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT BELOW ZERO.
CURRENT FORECAST LOWS WOULD BREAK SEVERAL DAILY TEMPERATURE
RECORDS...SOME LONG STANDING AND SOME AS RECENTLY ESTABLISHED AS
LAST YEAR. CALM WINDS WILL PRECLUDE THE NECESSITY FOR WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES. THE BEAT GOES ON IN A FEBRUARY THAT HAS BEEN FAR FROM
NORMAL. MAYBE MARCH WILL ROAR IN WITH A WARMER PATTERN...
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MARCH BEGINS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEING SHUNTED TO OUR EAST AS A
LONGWAVE TROF DIGS IN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY BRING A CHANGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE ZONAL
REGIME. A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A LOOSE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY LATE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY SHOULD BE IN THE BALLPARK OF NORMALS...WHICH MEANS LIQUID
PRECIPITATION TYPES COME BACK INTO THE MIX. GIVEN THE RECENT COLD
TEMPERATURES...SFC TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN BEING
INCLUDED IN FUTURE UPDATES. AT THE MOMENT...INCLUSION OF A FEW HOURS
OF FREEZING RAIN IS A BIT TOO FINE SCALE AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES A BIT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT SIGNS
POINT TO CONTINUED WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS ANOTHER POSSIBLE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE CURRENT TRACK HAS THE SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WELL TO OUR WEST. THIS MEANS A WARM AND WET SOLN WILL BE FAVORED.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CIGS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF VISIBILITY BEING REDUCED TO TWO
TO THREE MILES BRIEFLY UNTIL 18Z OR SO FOR KDUJ. OTHERWISE BASED
ON LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO LOW VFR LEVELS
EARLY AFTERNOON. GENERAL VFR WITH INCREASING MID DECK OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN AREA WIDE THURSDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH. VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$












000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251440
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
940 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BRINING
IN ANOTHER COLD NIGHT. LIGTH SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY
TO DRY AND FRIGID CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WITH A THIN BNAD OF SNOW SHOWERS FROM KDUJ TO KBVI MID
MORNING WITH BEGIN TO WASH OUT AS THE DAY GOES ON. ONLY SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH INOT THE RIDGES WITH A PASSING
FLURRY ELSEWHERE. PREVIOUS FORECAST TEMPS LOOK IN LINE.

COLD 850MB AIR WILL INVADE TONIGHT WHILE WINDS ALOFT BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND MOISTURE ADVECTION RAMPS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. LOCATIONS WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW
STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE I80 CORRIDOR. MOISTURE IS LACKING THE LOWER LEVELS...AND DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS ONCE AGAIN BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY TAPER DOWN FRI AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE FULLY EVACUATES THE COLUMN FRIDAY EVENING
WITH SKIES CLEARING. DRY AIR...CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND
PRESUMABLY A REMNANT SNOW PACK WILL RESULT IN STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND ULTIMATELY TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT BELOW ZERO.
CURRENT FORECAST LOWS WOULD BREAK SEVERAL DAILY TEMPERATURE
RECORDS...SOME LONG STANDING AND SOME AS RECENTLY ESTABLISHED AS
LAST YEAR. CALM WINDS WILL PRECLUDE THE NECESSITY FOR WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES. THE BEAT GOES ON IN A FEBRUARY THAT HAS BEEN FAR FROM
NORMAL. MAYBE MARCH WILL ROAR IN WITH A WARMER PATTERN...
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MARCH BEGINS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEING SHUNTED TO OUR EAST AS A
LONGWAVE TROF DIGS IN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY BRING A CHANGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE ZONAL
REGIME. A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A LOOSE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY LATE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY SHOULD BE IN THE BALLPARK OF NORMALS...WHICH MEANS LIQUID
PRECIPITATION TYPES COME BACK INTO THE MIX. GIVEN THE RECENT COLD
TEMPERATURES...SFC TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN BEING
INCLUDED IN FUTURE UPDATES. AT THE MOMENT...INCLUSION OF A FEW HOURS
OF FREEZING RAIN IS A BIT TOO FINE SCALE AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES A BIT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT SIGNS
POINT TO CONTINUED WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS ANOTHER POSSIBLE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE CURRENT TRACK HAS THE SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WELL TO OUR WEST. THIS MEANS A WARM AND WET SOLN WILL BE FAVORED.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH THE
BIGGEST IMPACT BEING MVFR CIGS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF VISIBILITY
BEING REDUCED TO TWO TO THREE MILES BRIEFLY DURING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

BASED ON LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO LOW VFR
LEVELS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE OF
THIS OCCURRING IS ONLY ABOUT 60% AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT
REMAINS IN PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT IS RIGHT AROUND 3KFT AND BELOW.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN AREA WIDE WITH A LATE
THURSDAY DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH. RESTRICTIONS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251440
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
940 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BRINING
IN ANOTHER COLD NIGHT. LIGTH SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY
TO DRY AND FRIGID CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WITH A THIN BNAD OF SNOW SHOWERS FROM KDUJ TO KBVI MID
MORNING WITH BEGIN TO WASH OUT AS THE DAY GOES ON. ONLY SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH INOT THE RIDGES WITH A PASSING
FLURRY ELSEWHERE. PREVIOUS FORECAST TEMPS LOOK IN LINE.

COLD 850MB AIR WILL INVADE TONIGHT WHILE WINDS ALOFT BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND MOISTURE ADVECTION RAMPS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. LOCATIONS WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW
STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE I80 CORRIDOR. MOISTURE IS LACKING THE LOWER LEVELS...AND DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS ONCE AGAIN BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY TAPER DOWN FRI AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE FULLY EVACUATES THE COLUMN FRIDAY EVENING
WITH SKIES CLEARING. DRY AIR...CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND
PRESUMABLY A REMNANT SNOW PACK WILL RESULT IN STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND ULTIMATELY TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT BELOW ZERO.
CURRENT FORECAST LOWS WOULD BREAK SEVERAL DAILY TEMPERATURE
RECORDS...SOME LONG STANDING AND SOME AS RECENTLY ESTABLISHED AS
LAST YEAR. CALM WINDS WILL PRECLUDE THE NECESSITY FOR WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES. THE BEAT GOES ON IN A FEBRUARY THAT HAS BEEN FAR FROM
NORMAL. MAYBE MARCH WILL ROAR IN WITH A WARMER PATTERN...
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MARCH BEGINS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEING SHUNTED TO OUR EAST AS A
LONGWAVE TROF DIGS IN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY BRING A CHANGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE ZONAL
REGIME. A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A LOOSE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY LATE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY SHOULD BE IN THE BALLPARK OF NORMALS...WHICH MEANS LIQUID
PRECIPITATION TYPES COME BACK INTO THE MIX. GIVEN THE RECENT COLD
TEMPERATURES...SFC TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN BEING
INCLUDED IN FUTURE UPDATES. AT THE MOMENT...INCLUSION OF A FEW HOURS
OF FREEZING RAIN IS A BIT TOO FINE SCALE AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES A BIT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT SIGNS
POINT TO CONTINUED WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS ANOTHER POSSIBLE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE CURRENT TRACK HAS THE SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WELL TO OUR WEST. THIS MEANS A WARM AND WET SOLN WILL BE FAVORED.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH THE
BIGGEST IMPACT BEING MVFR CIGS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF VISIBILITY
BEING REDUCED TO TWO TO THREE MILES BRIEFLY DURING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

BASED ON LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO LOW VFR
LEVELS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE OF
THIS OCCURRING IS ONLY ABOUT 60% AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT
REMAINS IN PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT IS RIGHT AROUND 3KFT AND BELOW.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN AREA WIDE WITH A LATE
THURSDAY DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH. RESTRICTIONS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251107
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
607 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE TWENTIES TODAY AFTER A COLD FRONT
PASSES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO UPDATES NEEDED SO FAR THIS MORNING AS THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK. PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..

COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND CURRENTLY JUST ENTERING
NORTHWESTERN OHIO WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING AND EAST OF THE RIDGES BY AROUND NOON TODAY. NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WITH THIS FEATURE AS THERE IS
A LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER
IS...AND LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY AS UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SHOW
ONLY MINOR DECEASES IN DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
FRONT. CURRENT TEMPERATURES HAVE ONLY DROPPED ABOUT 5 DEGREES ON
AVERAGE FROM YESTERDAYS HIGHS AS STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT HAVE KEPT THE LOWER LEVELS MIXED. NOT MUCH RECOVERY IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE DAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWEST
FOLLOWING THE MORNING FRONTAL PASSAGE. DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO OBSERVED YESTERDAY BEHIND THE FRONT GIVEN OUR
WARM START TO THE DAY...AVERAGING 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

CLOUD COVERAGE WILL SCATTER OUT SOMEWHAT TODAY BEFORE INCREASING
EARLY THIS EVENING AS WINDS ALOFT BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION RAMPS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM.
LOCATIONS WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
THE BEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I80 CORRIDOR. MOISTURE IS
LACKING THE LOWER LEVELS...AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO MID TEENS ONCE AGAIN BY THURSDAY MORNING...DOWN TO -5 TO +5 BY
FRIDAY MORNING AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY TAPER DOWN FRI AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE FULLY EVACUATES THE COLUMN FRIDAY EVENING
WITH SKIES CLEARING. DRY AIR...CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND
PRESUMABLY A REMNANT SNOW PACK WILL RESULT IN STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND ULTIMATELY TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT BELOW ZERO.
CURRENT FORECAST LOWS WOULD BREAK SEVERAL DAILY TEMPERATURE
RECORDS...SOME LONG STANDING AND SOME AS RECENTLY ESTABLISHED AS
LAST YEAR. CALM WINDS WILL PRECLUDE THE NECESSITY FOR WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES. THE BEAT GOES ON IN A FEBRUARY THAT HAS BEEN FAR FROM
NORMAL. MAYBE MARCH WILL ROAR IN WITH A WARMER PATTERN...
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MARCH BEGINS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEING SHUNTED TO OUR EAST AS A
LONGWAVE TROF DIGS IN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY BRING A CHANGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE ZONAL
REGIME. A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A LOOSE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY LATE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY SHOULD BE IN THE BALLPARK OF NORMALS...WHICH MEANS LIQUID
PRECIPITATION TYPES COME BACK INTO THE MIX. GIVEN THE RECENT COLD
TEMPERATURES...SFC TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN BEING
INCLUDED IN FUTURE UPDATES. AT THE MOMENT...INCLUSION OF A FEW HOURS
OF FREEZING RAIN IS A BIT TOO FINE SCALE AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES A BIT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT SIGNS
POINT TO CONTINUED WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS ANOTHER POSSIBLE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE CURRENT TRACK HAS THE SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WELL TO OUR WEST. THIS MEANS A WARM AND WET SOLN WILL BE FAVORED.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH THE
BIGGEST IMPACT BEING MVFR CIGS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF VISIBILITY
BEING REDUCED TO TWO TO THREE MILES BRIEFLY DURING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

BASED ON LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO LOW VFR
LEVELS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE OF
THIS OCCURRING IS ONLY ABOUT 60% AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT
REMAINS IN PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT IS RIGHT AROUND 3KFT AND BELOW.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN AREA WIDE WITH A LATE
THURSDAY DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH. RESTRICTIONS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251107
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
607 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE TWENTIES TODAY AFTER A COLD FRONT
PASSES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO UPDATES NEEDED SO FAR THIS MORNING AS THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK. PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..

COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND CURRENTLY JUST ENTERING
NORTHWESTERN OHIO WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING AND EAST OF THE RIDGES BY AROUND NOON TODAY. NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WITH THIS FEATURE AS THERE IS
A LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER
IS...AND LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY AS UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SHOW
ONLY MINOR DECEASES IN DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
FRONT. CURRENT TEMPERATURES HAVE ONLY DROPPED ABOUT 5 DEGREES ON
AVERAGE FROM YESTERDAYS HIGHS AS STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT HAVE KEPT THE LOWER LEVELS MIXED. NOT MUCH RECOVERY IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE DAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWEST
FOLLOWING THE MORNING FRONTAL PASSAGE. DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO OBSERVED YESTERDAY BEHIND THE FRONT GIVEN OUR
WARM START TO THE DAY...AVERAGING 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

CLOUD COVERAGE WILL SCATTER OUT SOMEWHAT TODAY BEFORE INCREASING
EARLY THIS EVENING AS WINDS ALOFT BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION RAMPS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM.
LOCATIONS WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
THE BEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I80 CORRIDOR. MOISTURE IS
LACKING THE LOWER LEVELS...AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO MID TEENS ONCE AGAIN BY THURSDAY MORNING...DOWN TO -5 TO +5 BY
FRIDAY MORNING AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY TAPER DOWN FRI AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE FULLY EVACUATES THE COLUMN FRIDAY EVENING
WITH SKIES CLEARING. DRY AIR...CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND
PRESUMABLY A REMNANT SNOW PACK WILL RESULT IN STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND ULTIMATELY TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT BELOW ZERO.
CURRENT FORECAST LOWS WOULD BREAK SEVERAL DAILY TEMPERATURE
RECORDS...SOME LONG STANDING AND SOME AS RECENTLY ESTABLISHED AS
LAST YEAR. CALM WINDS WILL PRECLUDE THE NECESSITY FOR WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES. THE BEAT GOES ON IN A FEBRUARY THAT HAS BEEN FAR FROM
NORMAL. MAYBE MARCH WILL ROAR IN WITH A WARMER PATTERN...
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MARCH BEGINS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEING SHUNTED TO OUR EAST AS A
LONGWAVE TROF DIGS IN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY BRING A CHANGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE ZONAL
REGIME. A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A LOOSE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY LATE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY SHOULD BE IN THE BALLPARK OF NORMALS...WHICH MEANS LIQUID
PRECIPITATION TYPES COME BACK INTO THE MIX. GIVEN THE RECENT COLD
TEMPERATURES...SFC TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN BEING
INCLUDED IN FUTURE UPDATES. AT THE MOMENT...INCLUSION OF A FEW HOURS
OF FREEZING RAIN IS A BIT TOO FINE SCALE AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES A BIT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT SIGNS
POINT TO CONTINUED WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS ANOTHER POSSIBLE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE CURRENT TRACK HAS THE SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WELL TO OUR WEST. THIS MEANS A WARM AND WET SOLN WILL BE FAVORED.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH THE
BIGGEST IMPACT BEING MVFR CIGS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF VISIBILITY
BEING REDUCED TO TWO TO THREE MILES BRIEFLY DURING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

BASED ON LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO LOW VFR
LEVELS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE OF
THIS OCCURRING IS ONLY ABOUT 60% AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT
REMAINS IN PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT IS RIGHT AROUND 3KFT AND BELOW.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN AREA WIDE WITH A LATE
THURSDAY DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH. RESTRICTIONS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251107
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
607 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE TWENTIES TODAY AFTER A COLD FRONT
PASSES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO UPDATES NEEDED SO FAR THIS MORNING AS THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK. PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..

COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND CURRENTLY JUST ENTERING
NORTHWESTERN OHIO WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING AND EAST OF THE RIDGES BY AROUND NOON TODAY. NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WITH THIS FEATURE AS THERE IS
A LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER
IS...AND LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY AS UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SHOW
ONLY MINOR DECEASES IN DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
FRONT. CURRENT TEMPERATURES HAVE ONLY DROPPED ABOUT 5 DEGREES ON
AVERAGE FROM YESTERDAYS HIGHS AS STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT HAVE KEPT THE LOWER LEVELS MIXED. NOT MUCH RECOVERY IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE DAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWEST
FOLLOWING THE MORNING FRONTAL PASSAGE. DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO OBSERVED YESTERDAY BEHIND THE FRONT GIVEN OUR
WARM START TO THE DAY...AVERAGING 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

CLOUD COVERAGE WILL SCATTER OUT SOMEWHAT TODAY BEFORE INCREASING
EARLY THIS EVENING AS WINDS ALOFT BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION RAMPS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM.
LOCATIONS WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
THE BEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I80 CORRIDOR. MOISTURE IS
LACKING THE LOWER LEVELS...AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO MID TEENS ONCE AGAIN BY THURSDAY MORNING...DOWN TO -5 TO +5 BY
FRIDAY MORNING AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY TAPER DOWN FRI AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE FULLY EVACUATES THE COLUMN FRIDAY EVENING
WITH SKIES CLEARING. DRY AIR...CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND
PRESUMABLY A REMNANT SNOW PACK WILL RESULT IN STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND ULTIMATELY TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT BELOW ZERO.
CURRENT FORECAST LOWS WOULD BREAK SEVERAL DAILY TEMPERATURE
RECORDS...SOME LONG STANDING AND SOME AS RECENTLY ESTABLISHED AS
LAST YEAR. CALM WINDS WILL PRECLUDE THE NECESSITY FOR WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES. THE BEAT GOES ON IN A FEBRUARY THAT HAS BEEN FAR FROM
NORMAL. MAYBE MARCH WILL ROAR IN WITH A WARMER PATTERN...
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MARCH BEGINS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEING SHUNTED TO OUR EAST AS A
LONGWAVE TROF DIGS IN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY BRING A CHANGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE ZONAL
REGIME. A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A LOOSE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY LATE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY SHOULD BE IN THE BALLPARK OF NORMALS...WHICH MEANS LIQUID
PRECIPITATION TYPES COME BACK INTO THE MIX. GIVEN THE RECENT COLD
TEMPERATURES...SFC TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN BEING
INCLUDED IN FUTURE UPDATES. AT THE MOMENT...INCLUSION OF A FEW HOURS
OF FREEZING RAIN IS A BIT TOO FINE SCALE AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES A BIT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT SIGNS
POINT TO CONTINUED WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS ANOTHER POSSIBLE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE CURRENT TRACK HAS THE SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WELL TO OUR WEST. THIS MEANS A WARM AND WET SOLN WILL BE FAVORED.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH THE
BIGGEST IMPACT BEING MVFR CIGS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF VISIBILITY
BEING REDUCED TO TWO TO THREE MILES BRIEFLY DURING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

BASED ON LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO LOW VFR
LEVELS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE OF
THIS OCCURRING IS ONLY ABOUT 60% AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT
REMAINS IN PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT IS RIGHT AROUND 3KFT AND BELOW.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN AREA WIDE WITH A LATE
THURSDAY DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH. RESTRICTIONS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251003
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
445 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND CURRENTLY JUST ENTERING
NORTHWESTERN OHIO WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING AND EAST OF THE RIDGES BY AROUND NOON TODAY. NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WITH THIS FEATURE AS THERE IS
A LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER
IS...AND LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY AS UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SHOW
ONLY MINOR DECEASES IN DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
FRONT. CURRENT TEMPERATURES HAVE ONLY DROPPED ABOUT 5 DEGREES ON
AVERAGE FROM YESTERDAYS HIGHS AS STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT HAVE KEPT THE LOWER LEVELS MIXED. NOT MUCH RECOVERY IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE DAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWEST
FOLLOWING THE MORNING FRONTAL PASSAGE. DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO OBSERVED YESTERDAY BEHIND THE FRONT GIVEN OUR
WARM START TO THE DAY...AVERAGING 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

CLOUD COVERAGE WILL SCATTER OUT SOMEWHAT TODAY BEFORE INCREASING
EARLY THIS EVENING AS WINDS ALOFT BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION RAMPS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM.
LOCATIONS WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
THE BEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I80 CORRIDOR. MOISTURE IS
LACKING THE LOWER LEVELS...AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO MID TEENS ONCE AGAIN BY THURSDAY MORNING...DOWN TO -5 TO +5 BY
FRIDAY MORNING AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY TAPER DOWN FRI AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE FULLY EVACUATES THE COLUMN FRIDAY EVENING
WITH SKIES CLEARING. DRY AIR...CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND
PRESUMABLY A REMNANT SNOW PACK WILL RESULT IN STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND ULTIMATELY TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT BELOW ZERO.
CURRENT FORECAST LOWS WOULD BREAK SEVERAL DAILY TEMPERATURE
RECORDS...SOME LONG STANDING AND SOME AS RECENTLY ESTABLISHED AS
LAST YEAR. CALM WINDS WILL PRECLUDE THE NECESSITY FOR WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES. THE BEAT GOES ON IN A FEBRUARY THAT HAS BEEN FAR FROM
NORMAL. MAYBE MARCH WILL ROAR IN WITH A WARMER PATTERN...
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MARCH BEGINS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEING SHUNTED TO OUR EAST AS A
LONGWAVE TROF DIGS IN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY BRING A CHANGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE ZONAL
REGIME. A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A LOOSE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY LATE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY SHOULD BE IN THE BALLPARK OF NORMALS...WHICH MEANS LIQUID
PRECIPITATION TYPES COME BACK INTO THE MIX. GIVEN THE RECENT COLD
TEMPERATURES...SFC TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN BEING
INCLUDED IN FUTURE UPDATES. AT THE MOMENT...INCLUSION OF A FEW HOURS
OF FREEZING RAIN IS A BIT TOO FINE SCALE AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES A BIT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT SIGNS
POINT TO CONTINUED WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS ANOTHER POSSIBLE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE CURRENT TRACK HAS THE SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WELL TO OUR WEST. THIS MEANS A WARM AND WET SOLN WILL BE FAVORED.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE
BIGGEST IMPACT BEING A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS. BASED ON
LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO LOW VFR LEVELS BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE OF THIS
OCCURRING IS ONLY ABOUT 60%. LIGHT SNOW MAY ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN SITES...BUT IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE WITH A LATE THURSDAY
DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF PIT. RESTRICTIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251003
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
445 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND CURRENTLY JUST ENTERING
NORTHWESTERN OHIO WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING AND EAST OF THE RIDGES BY AROUND NOON TODAY. NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WITH THIS FEATURE AS THERE IS
A LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER
IS...AND LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY AS UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SHOW
ONLY MINOR DECEASES IN DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
FRONT. CURRENT TEMPERATURES HAVE ONLY DROPPED ABOUT 5 DEGREES ON
AVERAGE FROM YESTERDAYS HIGHS AS STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT HAVE KEPT THE LOWER LEVELS MIXED. NOT MUCH RECOVERY IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE DAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWEST
FOLLOWING THE MORNING FRONTAL PASSAGE. DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO OBSERVED YESTERDAY BEHIND THE FRONT GIVEN OUR
WARM START TO THE DAY...AVERAGING 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

CLOUD COVERAGE WILL SCATTER OUT SOMEWHAT TODAY BEFORE INCREASING
EARLY THIS EVENING AS WINDS ALOFT BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION RAMPS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM.
LOCATIONS WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
THE BEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I80 CORRIDOR. MOISTURE IS
LACKING THE LOWER LEVELS...AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO MID TEENS ONCE AGAIN BY THURSDAY MORNING...DOWN TO -5 TO +5 BY
FRIDAY MORNING AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY TAPER DOWN FRI AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE FULLY EVACUATES THE COLUMN FRIDAY EVENING
WITH SKIES CLEARING. DRY AIR...CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND
PRESUMABLY A REMNANT SNOW PACK WILL RESULT IN STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND ULTIMATELY TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT BELOW ZERO.
CURRENT FORECAST LOWS WOULD BREAK SEVERAL DAILY TEMPERATURE
RECORDS...SOME LONG STANDING AND SOME AS RECENTLY ESTABLISHED AS
LAST YEAR. CALM WINDS WILL PRECLUDE THE NECESSITY FOR WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES. THE BEAT GOES ON IN A FEBRUARY THAT HAS BEEN FAR FROM
NORMAL. MAYBE MARCH WILL ROAR IN WITH A WARMER PATTERN...
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MARCH BEGINS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEING SHUNTED TO OUR EAST AS A
LONGWAVE TROF DIGS IN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY BRING A CHANGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE ZONAL
REGIME. A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A LOOSE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY LATE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY SHOULD BE IN THE BALLPARK OF NORMALS...WHICH MEANS LIQUID
PRECIPITATION TYPES COME BACK INTO THE MIX. GIVEN THE RECENT COLD
TEMPERATURES...SFC TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN BEING
INCLUDED IN FUTURE UPDATES. AT THE MOMENT...INCLUSION OF A FEW HOURS
OF FREEZING RAIN IS A BIT TOO FINE SCALE AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES A BIT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT SIGNS
POINT TO CONTINUED WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS ANOTHER POSSIBLE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE CURRENT TRACK HAS THE SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WELL TO OUR WEST. THIS MEANS A WARM AND WET SOLN WILL BE FAVORED.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE
BIGGEST IMPACT BEING A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS. BASED ON
LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO LOW VFR LEVELS BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE OF THIS
OCCURRING IS ONLY ABOUT 60%. LIGHT SNOW MAY ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN SITES...BUT IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE WITH A LATE THURSDAY
DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF PIT. RESTRICTIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250616
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
116 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
APPROACHING FRONT NOW JUST NORTH AND WEST OF OHIO WITH WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATING PLACEMENT OVER EASTERN OHIO ZONES SHORTLY
BEFORE DAYBREAK AND EAST OF THE RIDGES BY LATE MORNING. GIVEN THE
LATER TIMING...HAVE INCREASED NEAR TERM TEMPERATURES...MOST
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE NE OHIO AND NW PA AS THERE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THEW FRONT TO KEEP LOWER
LEVELS WELL MIXED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE MUCH RECOVERY DURING THE DAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING
NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE MORNING FRONTAL PASSAGE. PREV DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS..

A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS OVER THE
REGION THIS EVENING AFTER THE WARM DAY...SOME MOISTURE INPUT FROM
MELTING...SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AND MID-LEVEL RH
MOISTURE INCREASING ENOUGH TO BRING SOME CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. ALL
OF THESE THINGS HAVE DONE LITTLE TO ALTER THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PROFILE...EVEN WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE SITTING 25 DEGREES OR SO
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS WILL POSE A PROBLEM AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
SLIPS TOWARD OUR AREA OVERNIGHT.

AS MENTIONED...MID LEVEL RH VALUES ARE ALREADY UP...AND A FAIRLY
SHARP SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BALLED UP VORT MAXIMA LOOK
TO MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE LATE THIS EVENING. DIFFERENTIAL PVA AND A
STEEPENING OF THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE TO COLD ADVECTION OFF
THE DECK SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT LIFT TO BE GENERATED TO
DEVELOP SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER THAT WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO MOISTEN UP THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE FARTHER YOU GO
SOUTHWARD...THE MORE PROBLEMATIC THE EQUATION BECOMES TO
GENERATING SNOW SHOWERS. WITH LIFT BEING MORE DISTANT...AND LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES LESS UNSTABLE...NOT TO MENTION LESS INSTABILITY
BISECTING THE LOWER REACHES OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE FAR LESS COMMON SOUTH OF I-80 AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF THE TURNPIKE. IN REALITY...ACCUMULATING SNOW ONLY REALLY SEEMS
POSSIBLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. ADDITIONALLY...AS STEEPER LAPSE
RATES REACH THE RIDGES...A FEW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS AGAIN SEEM LIKELY THERE BY MORNING.

DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION THIS EVENING...LOWS WILL
BE LEAPS AND BOUNDS WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. HOWEVER...THESE WILL
LIKELY REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.

DRIER AIR SHOULD AGAIN RETURN FOR THE DAYTIME ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME EROSION OF THE CLOUDS. HOWEVER...THIS
CLEARING WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED...AS THE NEXT COUPLET OF
SYSTEMS HEADS TOWARD THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COMBINATION OF SYSTEMS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD CANADIAN SURFACE
HIGH MOVES SOUTH...WHILE A SUPPRESSED SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE SHEARS
OUT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
BUT DO EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY
MORNING CONTINUING THURSDAY. COLD FRONT WILL EXIT AS SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CONTINUED QUITE COLD
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWS NEAR OR BELOW ZERO AGAIN FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD MAINLY IN THE TEENS FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE TO TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. ARCTIC HIGH WITH CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT AND TOOK TEMPERATURES
DOWN TOWARD NEWEST WPC GUIDANCE FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWERED MAX TEMPS
FOR SATURDAY AS WELL.

PATTERN MUDDIES THEREAFTER AS MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP SHOP
IN OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MOIST SW FLOW AND A FEW SHORTWAVES WILL PROVIDE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
PRECIPITATION...THE BEST OF WHICH APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AT PRESENT TIME. PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS UNCERTAIN
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ENSEMBLES LIKELY WOULD PROVIDE THE PATH OF
LEAST REGRET AT THIS POINT. NEVERTHELESS...THE RISING H500 HEIGHTS
POINT TO TEMPERATURES AT LEAST GETTING WITHIN THE REALM OF
SEASONABLE VALUES BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. CL

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE
BIGGEST IMPACT BEING A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS. BASED ON
LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO LOW VFR LEVELS BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE OF THIS
OCCURRING IS ONLY ABOUT 60%. LIGHT SNOW MAY ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN SITES...BUT IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE WITH A LATE THURSDAY
DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF PIT. RESTRICTIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250214
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
914 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING
AFTER THE WARM DAY...SOME MOISTURE INPUT FROM
MELTING...SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AND MID-LEVEL RH
MOISTURE INCREASING ENOUGH TO BRING SOME CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. ALL
OF THESE THINGS HAVE DONE LITTLE TO ALTER THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PROFILE...EVEN WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE SITTING 25 DEGREES OR SO
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS WILL POSE A PROBLEM AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
SLIPS TOWARD OUR AREA OVERNIGHT.

AS MENTIONED...MID LEVEL RH VALUES ARE ALREADY UP...AND A FAIRLY
SHARP SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BALLED UP VORT MAXIMA LOOK
TO MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE LATE THIS EVENING. DIFFERENTIAL PVA AND A
STEEPENING OF THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE TO COLD ADVECTION OFF
THE DECK SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT LIFT TO BE GENERATED TO
DEVELOP SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER THAT WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO MOISTEN UP THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE FARTHER YOU GO
SOUTHWARD...THE MORE PROBLEMATIC THE EQUATION BECOMES TO
GENERATING SNOW SHOWERS. WITH LIFT BEING MORE DISTANT...AND LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES LESS UNSTABLE...NOT TO MENTION LESS INSTABILITY
BISECTING THE LOWER REACHES OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE FAR LESS COMMON SOUTH OF I-80 AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF THE TURNPIKE. IN REALITY...ACCUMULATING SNOW ONLY REALLY SEEMS
POSSIBLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. ADDITIONALLY...AS STEEPER LAPSE
RATES REACH THE RIDGES...A FEW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS AGAIN SEEM LIKELY THERE BY MORNING.

DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION THIS EVENING...LOWS WILL
BE LEAPS AND BOUNDS WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. HOWEVER...THESE WILL
LIKELY REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.

DRIER AIR SHOULD AGAIN RETURN FOR THE DAYTIME ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME EROSION OF THE CLOUDS. HOWEVER...THIS
CLEARING WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED...AS THE NEXT COUPLET OF
SYSTEMS HEADS TOWARD THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COMBINATION OF SYSTEMS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD CANADIAN SURFACE
HIGH MOVES SOUTH...WHILE A SUPPRESSED SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE SHEARS
OUT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
BUT DO EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY
MORNING CONTINUING THURSDAY. COLD FRONT WILL EXIT AS SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CONTINUED QUITE COLD
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWS NEAR OR BELOW ZERO AGAIN FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD MAINLY IN THE TEENS FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE TO TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. ARCTIC HIGH WITH CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT AND TOOK TEMPERATURES
DOWN TOWARD NEWEST WPC GUIDANCE FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWERED MAX TEMPS
FOR SATURDAY AS WELL.

PATTERN MUDDIES THEREAFTER AS MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP SHOP
IN OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MOIST SW FLOW AND A FEW SHORTWAVES WILL PROVIDE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
PRECIPITATION...THE BEST OF WHICH APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AT PRESENT TIME. PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS UNCERTAIN
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ENSEMBLES LIKELY WOULD PROVIDE THE PATH OF
LEAST REGRET AT THIS POINT. NEVERTHELESS...THE RISING H500 HEIGHTS
POINT TO TEMPERATURES AT LEAST GETTING WITHIN THE REALM OF
SEASONABLE VALUES BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. CL

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH RELATIVELY LOW
MOISTURE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL TERMINALS...WITH IFR VISIBILITY EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS AT
FKL/DUJ IN LIGHT SNOW. SNOW SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE OUT OF THE
REGION BY SUNRISE...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
DAY.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE WITH A LATE THURSDAY
DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF PIT. RESTRICTIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250214
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
914 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING
AFTER THE WARM DAY...SOME MOISTURE INPUT FROM
MELTING...SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AND MID-LEVEL RH
MOISTURE INCREASING ENOUGH TO BRING SOME CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. ALL
OF THESE THINGS HAVE DONE LITTLE TO ALTER THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PROFILE...EVEN WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE SITTING 25 DEGREES OR SO
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS WILL POSE A PROBLEM AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
SLIPS TOWARD OUR AREA OVERNIGHT.

AS MENTIONED...MID LEVEL RH VALUES ARE ALREADY UP...AND A FAIRLY
SHARP SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BALLED UP VORT MAXIMA LOOK
TO MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE LATE THIS EVENING. DIFFERENTIAL PVA AND A
STEEPENING OF THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE TO COLD ADVECTION OFF
THE DECK SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT LIFT TO BE GENERATED TO
DEVELOP SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER THAT WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO MOISTEN UP THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE FARTHER YOU GO
SOUTHWARD...THE MORE PROBLEMATIC THE EQUATION BECOMES TO
GENERATING SNOW SHOWERS. WITH LIFT BEING MORE DISTANT...AND LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES LESS UNSTABLE...NOT TO MENTION LESS INSTABILITY
BISECTING THE LOWER REACHES OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE FAR LESS COMMON SOUTH OF I-80 AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF THE TURNPIKE. IN REALITY...ACCUMULATING SNOW ONLY REALLY SEEMS
POSSIBLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. ADDITIONALLY...AS STEEPER LAPSE
RATES REACH THE RIDGES...A FEW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS AGAIN SEEM LIKELY THERE BY MORNING.

DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION THIS EVENING...LOWS WILL
BE LEAPS AND BOUNDS WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. HOWEVER...THESE WILL
LIKELY REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.

DRIER AIR SHOULD AGAIN RETURN FOR THE DAYTIME ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME EROSION OF THE CLOUDS. HOWEVER...THIS
CLEARING WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED...AS THE NEXT COUPLET OF
SYSTEMS HEADS TOWARD THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COMBINATION OF SYSTEMS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD CANADIAN SURFACE
HIGH MOVES SOUTH...WHILE A SUPPRESSED SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE SHEARS
OUT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
BUT DO EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY
MORNING CONTINUING THURSDAY. COLD FRONT WILL EXIT AS SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CONTINUED QUITE COLD
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWS NEAR OR BELOW ZERO AGAIN FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD MAINLY IN THE TEENS FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE TO TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. ARCTIC HIGH WITH CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT AND TOOK TEMPERATURES
DOWN TOWARD NEWEST WPC GUIDANCE FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWERED MAX TEMPS
FOR SATURDAY AS WELL.

PATTERN MUDDIES THEREAFTER AS MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP SHOP
IN OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MOIST SW FLOW AND A FEW SHORTWAVES WILL PROVIDE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
PRECIPITATION...THE BEST OF WHICH APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AT PRESENT TIME. PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS UNCERTAIN
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ENSEMBLES LIKELY WOULD PROVIDE THE PATH OF
LEAST REGRET AT THIS POINT. NEVERTHELESS...THE RISING H500 HEIGHTS
POINT TO TEMPERATURES AT LEAST GETTING WITHIN THE REALM OF
SEASONABLE VALUES BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. CL

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH RELATIVELY LOW
MOISTURE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL TERMINALS...WITH IFR VISIBILITY EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS AT
FKL/DUJ IN LIGHT SNOW. SNOW SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE OUT OF THE
REGION BY SUNRISE...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
DAY.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE WITH A LATE THURSDAY
DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF PIT. RESTRICTIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 242332
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
632 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING
AFTER THE WARM DAY...SOME MOISTURE INPUT FROM
MELTING...SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AND MID-LEVEL RH
MOISTURE INCREASING ENOUGH TO BRING SOME CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. ALL
OF THESE THINGS HAVE DONE LITTLE TO ALTER THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PROFILE...EVEN WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE SITTING 25 DEGREES OR SO
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS WILL POSE A PROBLEM AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
SLIPS TOWARD OUR AREA OVERNIGHT.

AS MENTIONED...MID LEVEL RH VALUES ARE ALREADY UP...AND A FAIRLY
SHARP SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BALLED UP VORT MAXIMA LOOK
TO MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE LATE THIS EVENING. DIFFERENTIAL PVA AND A
STEEPENING OF THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE TO COLD ADVECTION OFF
THE DECK SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT LIFT TO BE GENERATED TO
DEVELOP SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER THAT WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO MOISTEN UP THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE FARTHER YOU GO
SOUTHWARD...THE MORE PROBLEMATIC THE EQUATION BECOMES TO
GENERATING SNOW SHOWERS. WITH LIFT BEING MORE DISTANT...AND LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES LESS UNSTABLE...NOT TO MENTION LESS INSTABILITY
BISECTING THE LOWER REACHES OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE FAR LESS COMMON SOUTH OF I-80 AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF THE TURNPIKE. IN REALITY...ACCUMULATING SNOW ONLY REALLY SEEMS
POSSIBLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. ADDITIONALLY...AS STEEPER LAPSE
RATES REACH THE RIDGES...A FEW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS AGAIN SEEM LIKELY THERE BY MORNING.

DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION THIS EVENING...LOWS WILL
BE LEAPS AND BOUNDS WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. HOWEVER...THESE WILL
LIKELY REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COMBINATION OF SYSTEMS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD CANADIAN SURFACE
HIGH MOVES SOUTH...WHILE A SUPPRESSED SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE SHEARS
OUT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
BUT DO EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY
MORNING CONTINUING THURSDAY. COLD FRONT WILL EXIT AS SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CONTINUED QUITE COLD
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWS NEAR OR BELOW ZERO AGAIN FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD MAINLY IN THE TEENS FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE TO TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. ARCTIC HIGH WITH CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT AND TOOK TEMPERATURES
DOWN TOWARD NEWEST WPC GUIDANCE FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWERED MAX TEMPS
FOR SATURDAY AS WELL.

PATTERN MUDDIES THEREAFTER AS MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP SHOP
IN OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MOIST SW FLOW AND A FEW SHORTWAVES WILL PROVIDE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
PRECIPITATION...THE BEST OF WHICH APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AT PRESENT TIME. PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS UNCERTAIN
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ENSEMBLES LIKELY WOULD PROVIDE THE PATH OF
LEAST REGRET AT THIS POINT. NEVERTHELESS...THE RISING H500 HEIGHTS
POINT TO TEMPERATURES AT LEAST GETTING WITHIN THE REALM OF
SEASONABLE VALUES BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. CL

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH RELATIVELY LOW
MOISTURE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL TERMINALS...WITH IFR VISIBILITY EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS AT
FKL/DUJ IN LIGHT SNOW. SNOW SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE OUT OF THE
REGION BY SUNRISE...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
DAY.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE WITH A LATE THURSDAY
DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF PIT. RESTRICTIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 242332
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
632 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING
AFTER THE WARM DAY...SOME MOISTURE INPUT FROM
MELTING...SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AND MID-LEVEL RH
MOISTURE INCREASING ENOUGH TO BRING SOME CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. ALL
OF THESE THINGS HAVE DONE LITTLE TO ALTER THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PROFILE...EVEN WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE SITTING 25 DEGREES OR SO
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS WILL POSE A PROBLEM AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
SLIPS TOWARD OUR AREA OVERNIGHT.

AS MENTIONED...MID LEVEL RH VALUES ARE ALREADY UP...AND A FAIRLY
SHARP SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BALLED UP VORT MAXIMA LOOK
TO MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE LATE THIS EVENING. DIFFERENTIAL PVA AND A
STEEPENING OF THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE TO COLD ADVECTION OFF
THE DECK SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT LIFT TO BE GENERATED TO
DEVELOP SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER THAT WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO MOISTEN UP THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE FARTHER YOU GO
SOUTHWARD...THE MORE PROBLEMATIC THE EQUATION BECOMES TO
GENERATING SNOW SHOWERS. WITH LIFT BEING MORE DISTANT...AND LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES LESS UNSTABLE...NOT TO MENTION LESS INSTABILITY
BISECTING THE LOWER REACHES OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE FAR LESS COMMON SOUTH OF I-80 AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF THE TURNPIKE. IN REALITY...ACCUMULATING SNOW ONLY REALLY SEEMS
POSSIBLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. ADDITIONALLY...AS STEEPER LAPSE
RATES REACH THE RIDGES...A FEW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS AGAIN SEEM LIKELY THERE BY MORNING.

DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION THIS EVENING...LOWS WILL
BE LEAPS AND BOUNDS WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. HOWEVER...THESE WILL
LIKELY REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COMBINATION OF SYSTEMS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD CANADIAN SURFACE
HIGH MOVES SOUTH...WHILE A SUPPRESSED SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE SHEARS
OUT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
BUT DO EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY
MORNING CONTINUING THURSDAY. COLD FRONT WILL EXIT AS SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CONTINUED QUITE COLD
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWS NEAR OR BELOW ZERO AGAIN FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD MAINLY IN THE TEENS FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE TO TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. ARCTIC HIGH WITH CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT AND TOOK TEMPERATURES
DOWN TOWARD NEWEST WPC GUIDANCE FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWERED MAX TEMPS
FOR SATURDAY AS WELL.

PATTERN MUDDIES THEREAFTER AS MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP SHOP
IN OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MOIST SW FLOW AND A FEW SHORTWAVES WILL PROVIDE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
PRECIPITATION...THE BEST OF WHICH APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AT PRESENT TIME. PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS UNCERTAIN
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ENSEMBLES LIKELY WOULD PROVIDE THE PATH OF
LEAST REGRET AT THIS POINT. NEVERTHELESS...THE RISING H500 HEIGHTS
POINT TO TEMPERATURES AT LEAST GETTING WITHIN THE REALM OF
SEASONABLE VALUES BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. CL

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH RELATIVELY LOW
MOISTURE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL TERMINALS...WITH IFR VISIBILITY EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS AT
FKL/DUJ IN LIGHT SNOW. SNOW SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE OUT OF THE
REGION BY SUNRISE...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
DAY.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE WITH A LATE THURSDAY
DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF PIT. RESTRICTIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 242313 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
613 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD
FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP AS NEARLY AS MUCH OVERNIGHT WITH
CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS. UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE PRESENT. LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS WILL WIND DOWN DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COMBINATION OF SYSTEMS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD CANADIAN SURFACE
HIGH MOVES SOUTH...WHILE A SUPPRESSED SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE SHEARS
OUT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
BUT DO EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY
MORNING CONTINUING THURSDAY. COLD FRONT WILL EXIT AS SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CONTINUED QUITE COLD
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWS NEAR OR BELOW ZERO AGAIN FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD MAINLY IN THE TEENS FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE TO TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. ARCTIC HIGH WITH CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT AND TOOK TEMPERATURES
DOWN TOWARD NEWEST WPC GUIDANCE FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWERED MAX TEMPS
FOR SATURDAY AS WELL.

PATTERN MUDDIES THEREAFTER AS MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP SHOP
IN OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MOIST SW FLOW AND A FEW SHORTWAVES WILL PROVIDE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
PRECIPITATION...THE BEST OF WHICH APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AT PRESENT TIME. PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS UNCERTAIN
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ENSEMBLES LIKELY WOULD PROVIDE THE PATH OF
LEAST REGRET AT THIS POINT. NEVERTHELESS...THE RISING H500 HEIGHTS
POINT TO TEMPERATURES AT LEAST GETTING WITHIN THE REALM OF
SEASONABLE VALUES BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. CL

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH RELATIVELY LOW
MOISTURE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL TERMINALS...WITH IFR VISIBILITY EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS AT
FKL/DUJ IN LIGHT SNOW. SNOW SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE OUT OF THE
REGION BY SUNRISE...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
DAY.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE WITH A LATE THURSDAY
DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF PIT. RESTRICTIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 242313 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
613 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD
FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP AS NEARLY AS MUCH OVERNIGHT WITH
CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS. UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE PRESENT. LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS WILL WIND DOWN DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COMBINATION OF SYSTEMS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD CANADIAN SURFACE
HIGH MOVES SOUTH...WHILE A SUPPRESSED SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE SHEARS
OUT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
BUT DO EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY
MORNING CONTINUING THURSDAY. COLD FRONT WILL EXIT AS SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CONTINUED QUITE COLD
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWS NEAR OR BELOW ZERO AGAIN FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD MAINLY IN THE TEENS FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE TO TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. ARCTIC HIGH WITH CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT AND TOOK TEMPERATURES
DOWN TOWARD NEWEST WPC GUIDANCE FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWERED MAX TEMPS
FOR SATURDAY AS WELL.

PATTERN MUDDIES THEREAFTER AS MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP SHOP
IN OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MOIST SW FLOW AND A FEW SHORTWAVES WILL PROVIDE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
PRECIPITATION...THE BEST OF WHICH APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AT PRESENT TIME. PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS UNCERTAIN
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ENSEMBLES LIKELY WOULD PROVIDE THE PATH OF
LEAST REGRET AT THIS POINT. NEVERTHELESS...THE RISING H500 HEIGHTS
POINT TO TEMPERATURES AT LEAST GETTING WITHIN THE REALM OF
SEASONABLE VALUES BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. CL

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH RELATIVELY LOW
MOISTURE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL TERMINALS...WITH IFR VISIBILITY EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS AT
FKL/DUJ IN LIGHT SNOW. SNOW SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE OUT OF THE
REGION BY SUNRISE...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
DAY.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE WITH A LATE THURSDAY
DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF PIT. RESTRICTIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241933
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
233 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD
FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP AS NEARLY AS MUCH OVERNIGHT WITH
CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS. UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE PRESENT. LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS WILL WIND DOWN DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COMBINATION OF SYSTEMS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD CANADIAN SURFACE
HIGH MOVES SOUTH...WHILE A SUPPRESSED SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE SHEARS
OUT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
BUT DO EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY
MORNING CONTINUING THURSDAY. COLD FRONT WILL EXIT AS SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CONTINUED QUITE COLD
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWS NEAR OR BELOW ZERO AGAIN FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD MAINLY IN THE TEENS FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE TO TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. ARCTIC HIGH WITH CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT AND TOOK TEMPERATURES
DOWN TOWARD NEWEST WPC GUIDANCE FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWERED MAX TEMPS
FOR SATURDAY AS WELL.

PATTERN MUDDIES THEREAFTER AS MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP SHOP
IN OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MOIST SW FLOW AND A FEW SHORTWAVES WILL PROVIDE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
PRECIPITATION...THE BEST OF WHICH APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AT PRESENT TIME. PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS UNCERTAIN
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ENSEMBLES LIKELY WOULD PROVIDE THE PATH OF
LEAST REGRET AT THIS POINT. NEVERTHELESS...THE RISING H500 HEIGHTS
POINT TO TEMPERATURES AT LEAST GETTING WITHIN THE REALM OF
SEASONABLE VALUES BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. CL

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY S-SW
WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH RELATIVELY
LOW MOISTURE. LOW MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS...WITH
IFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS AT FKL/DUJ IN LIGHT
SNOW. PITTSBURGH METRO AREA SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME SNOW...BUT
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR. SNOW SHOULD GENERALLY
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH CIGS WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE GONE WITH SOME CLEARING IN THE 30
HOUR PORTION OF THE PITTSBURGH TAF.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE WITH A LATE THURSDAY
DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF PIT. RESTRICTIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$















000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241933
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
233 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD
FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP AS NEARLY AS MUCH OVERNIGHT WITH
CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS. UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE PRESENT. LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS WILL WIND DOWN DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COMBINATION OF SYSTEMS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD CANADIAN SURFACE
HIGH MOVES SOUTH...WHILE A SUPPRESSED SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE SHEARS
OUT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
BUT DO EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY
MORNING CONTINUING THURSDAY. COLD FRONT WILL EXIT AS SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CONTINUED QUITE COLD
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWS NEAR OR BELOW ZERO AGAIN FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD MAINLY IN THE TEENS FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE TO TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. ARCTIC HIGH WITH CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT AND TOOK TEMPERATURES
DOWN TOWARD NEWEST WPC GUIDANCE FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWERED MAX TEMPS
FOR SATURDAY AS WELL.

PATTERN MUDDIES THEREAFTER AS MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP SHOP
IN OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MOIST SW FLOW AND A FEW SHORTWAVES WILL PROVIDE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
PRECIPITATION...THE BEST OF WHICH APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AT PRESENT TIME. PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS UNCERTAIN
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ENSEMBLES LIKELY WOULD PROVIDE THE PATH OF
LEAST REGRET AT THIS POINT. NEVERTHELESS...THE RISING H500 HEIGHTS
POINT TO TEMPERATURES AT LEAST GETTING WITHIN THE REALM OF
SEASONABLE VALUES BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. CL

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY S-SW
WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH RELATIVELY
LOW MOISTURE. LOW MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS...WITH
IFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS AT FKL/DUJ IN LIGHT
SNOW. PITTSBURGH METRO AREA SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME SNOW...BUT
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR. SNOW SHOULD GENERALLY
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH CIGS WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE GONE WITH SOME CLEARING IN THE 30
HOUR PORTION OF THE PITTSBURGH TAF.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE WITH A LATE THURSDAY
DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF PIT. RESTRICTIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$














000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241933
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
233 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD
FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP AS NEARLY AS MUCH OVERNIGHT WITH
CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS. UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE PRESENT. LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS WILL WIND DOWN DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COMBINATION OF SYSTEMS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD CANADIAN SURFACE
HIGH MOVES SOUTH...WHILE A SUPPRESSED SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE SHEARS
OUT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
BUT DO EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY
MORNING CONTINUING THURSDAY. COLD FRONT WILL EXIT AS SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CONTINUED QUITE COLD
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWS NEAR OR BELOW ZERO AGAIN FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD MAINLY IN THE TEENS FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE TO TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. ARCTIC HIGH WITH CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT AND TOOK TEMPERATURES
DOWN TOWARD NEWEST WPC GUIDANCE FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWERED MAX TEMPS
FOR SATURDAY AS WELL.

PATTERN MUDDIES THEREAFTER AS MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP SHOP
IN OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MOIST SW FLOW AND A FEW SHORTWAVES WILL PROVIDE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
PRECIPITATION...THE BEST OF WHICH APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AT PRESENT TIME. PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS UNCERTAIN
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ENSEMBLES LIKELY WOULD PROVIDE THE PATH OF
LEAST REGRET AT THIS POINT. NEVERTHELESS...THE RISING H500 HEIGHTS
POINT TO TEMPERATURES AT LEAST GETTING WITHIN THE REALM OF
SEASONABLE VALUES BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. CL

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY S-SW
WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH RELATIVELY
LOW MOISTURE. LOW MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS...WITH
IFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS AT FKL/DUJ IN LIGHT
SNOW. PITTSBURGH METRO AREA SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME SNOW...BUT
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR. SNOW SHOULD GENERALLY
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH CIGS WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE GONE WITH SOME CLEARING IN THE 30
HOUR PORTION OF THE PITTSBURGH TAF.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE WITH A LATE THURSDAY
DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF PIT. RESTRICTIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$














000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241933
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
233 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD
FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP AS NEARLY AS MUCH OVERNIGHT WITH
CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS. UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE PRESENT. LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS WILL WIND DOWN DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COMBINATION OF SYSTEMS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD CANADIAN SURFACE
HIGH MOVES SOUTH...WHILE A SUPPRESSED SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE SHEARS
OUT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
BUT DO EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY
MORNING CONTINUING THURSDAY. COLD FRONT WILL EXIT AS SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CONTINUED QUITE COLD
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWS NEAR OR BELOW ZERO AGAIN FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD MAINLY IN THE TEENS FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE TO TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. ARCTIC HIGH WITH CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT AND TOOK TEMPERATURES
DOWN TOWARD NEWEST WPC GUIDANCE FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWERED MAX TEMPS
FOR SATURDAY AS WELL.

PATTERN MUDDIES THEREAFTER AS MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP SHOP
IN OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MOIST SW FLOW AND A FEW SHORTWAVES WILL PROVIDE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
PRECIPITATION...THE BEST OF WHICH APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AT PRESENT TIME. PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS UNCERTAIN
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ENSEMBLES LIKELY WOULD PROVIDE THE PATH OF
LEAST REGRET AT THIS POINT. NEVERTHELESS...THE RISING H500 HEIGHTS
POINT TO TEMPERATURES AT LEAST GETTING WITHIN THE REALM OF
SEASONABLE VALUES BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. CL

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY S-SW
WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH RELATIVELY
LOW MOISTURE. LOW MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS...WITH
IFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS AT FKL/DUJ IN LIGHT
SNOW. PITTSBURGH METRO AREA SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME SNOW...BUT
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR. SNOW SHOULD GENERALLY
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH CIGS WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE GONE WITH SOME CLEARING IN THE 30
HOUR PORTION OF THE PITTSBURGH TAF.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE WITH A LATE THURSDAY
DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF PIT. RESTRICTIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$















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