Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 140141
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
841 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILL INDICES CAN BE
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE LATE EVE UPDATE AS SNOW SHOWER
POTENTIAL CONTS TO FADE WITH WEAKENING FLOW.

OTHERWISE...THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED ALTHOUGH
BUILDING HIGH PRES WILL CONT TO GRADUALLY DEGRADE THE WIND
COMPONENT. NO CHANGE WAS NEEDED FOR THE FRIGID TEMP PROGNOSIS.

SUNDAY WILL BE GENERALLY DRY AND CONTINUED COLD...EVEN THOUGH MID
AND HIGH CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY ENCROACH AS WARM...MOIST
ADVECTION ENSUES IN ADVN OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LIGHT SNOW
MAY DEVELOP NEAR ZZV AS NIGHT FALLS...CHC POPS WERE MAINTAINED IN
THAT VICINITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES MONDAY.

SOUTHWARD DIGGING SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER TROUGH AND PIVOTING
UPPER LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL RIDE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. THERE REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS MUCH FASTER AND LESS AMPLIFIED
WITH THE FIRST LOW THAN THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME. BASED ON NATIONAL
GUIDANCE AND CURRENT MODEL TRENDS...HAVE OPTED TO SIDE WITH THE
GFS. WHILE WARM ADVECTION IS NOT AS STRONG AS IT IS ON THE
ECMWF...THERE ARE SOME P-TYPE CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AS
THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.

MODEL SOUNDINGS...WHILE ON THE COOLER SIDE...SUPPORT LOWER SNOW
RATIOS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST LIFT PLACED BELOW THE LAYER
FOR EFFICIENT SNOW GROWTH. THUS...THE CURRENT SNOWFALL FORECAST
WAS DEPICTED AS SUCH. HOWEVER...IF THE QPF THAT IS FORECAST IN THE
MODEL MATERIALIZES...SNOW AMOUNTS COULD REACH VALUES FOR
HEADLINES. AT THIS POINT...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THESE CONCERNS IN THE
HWO.

TEMPERATURES WERE CONSTRUCTED HEAVILY ON THE GFS WITH
CONSIDERATION FOR ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SECOND LOW WILL BE CROSSING TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUING. AGAIN...P-TYPE ISSUES REMAIN WITH RAIN AND SNOW
CHANGING TO SNOW WITH COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY WITH THE SYSTEMS
DEPARTURE. RIDGING AND A WARM UP LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE BY LATE IN
THE PERIOD. HEAVY EMPHASIS WAS USED ON THE SUPERBLEND FOR THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR OR EVEN IFR VISIBILITIES IN SNOW
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD RAPIDLY DECREASE
THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO DIMINISH WITH NIGHTFALL. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT AS WINDS BACK TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST...AND THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. CANNOT RULE OUT SNOW
ARRIVING TO ZZV BY 00Z MON...BUT THE ODDS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ001-002-021-
     509>514.

&&

$$
15/33





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 132319
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
619 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILL INDICES CAN BE
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EARLY EVE UPDATE FEATURED A DROP OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORY AS CONVECTIVE BANDS AND NO LONGER ORGANIZED FOR THE I 80
CORRIDOR.

NEVERTHELESS...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVE AS COLD...BUT WEAKENING FLOW CONTS TO UPSLOPE OFF THE LAKES.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO EFFICIENT SNOW
PRODUCTION AND SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS NO LONGER ANTICIPATED.

OTHERWISE...THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED ALTHOUGH
BUILDING HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY DEGRADE THE WIND COMPONENT. NO
CHANGE WAS NEEDED FOR THE FRIGID TEMP PROGNOSIS.

SUNDAY WILL BE GENERALLY DRY AND CONTINUED COLD...EVEN THOUGH MID
AND HIGH CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY ENCROACH AS WARM...MOIST
ADVECTION ENSUES IN ADVN OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LIGHT SNOW
MAY DEVELOP NEAR ZZV AS NIGHT FALLS...CHC POPS WERE MAINTAINED IN
THAT VICINITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES MONDAY.

SOUTHWARD DIGGING SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER TROUGH AND PIVOTING
UPPER LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL RIDE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. THERE REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS MUCH FASTER AND LESS AMPLIFIED
WITH THE FIRST LOW THAN THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME. BASED ON NATIONAL
GUIDANCE AND CURRENT MODEL TRENDS...HAVE OPTED TO SIDE WITH THE
GFS. WHILE WARM ADVECTION IS NOT AS STRONG AS IT IS ON THE
ECMWF...THERE ARE SOME P-TYPE CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AS
THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.

MODEL SOUNDINGS...WHILE ON THE COOLER SIDE...SUPPORT LOWER SNOW
RATIOS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST LIFT PLACED BELOW THE LAYER
FOR EFFICIENT SNOW GROWTH. THUS...THE CURRENT SNOWFALL FORECAST
WAS DEPICTED AS SUCH. HOWEVER...IF THE QPF THAT IS FORECAST IN THE
MODEL MATERIALIZES...SNOW AMOUNTS COULD REACH VALUES FOR
HEADLINES. AT THIS POINT...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THESE CONCERNS IN THE
HWO.

TEMPERATURES WERE CONSTRUCTED HEAVILY ON THE GFS WITH
CONSIDERATION FOR ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SECOND LOW WILL BE CROSSING TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUING. AGAIN...P-TYPE ISSUES REMAIN WITH RAIN AND SNOW
CHANGING TO SNOW WITH COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY WITH THE SYSTEMS
DEPARTURE. RIDGING AND A WARM UP LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE BY LATE IN
THE PERIOD. HEAVY EMPHASIS WAS USED ON THE SUPERBLEND FOR THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR OR EVEN IFR VISIBILITIES IN SNOW
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD RAPIDLY DECREASE
THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO DIMINISH WITH NIGHTFALL. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT AS WINDS BACK TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST...AND THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. CANNOT RULE OUT SNOW
ARRIVING TO ZZV BY 00Z MON...BUT THE ODDS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ001-002-021-
     509>514.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 132319
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
619 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILL INDICES CAN BE
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EARLY EVE UPDATE FEATURED A DROP OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORY AS CONVECTIVE BANDS AND NO LONGER ORGANIZED FOR THE I 80
CORRIDOR.

NEVERTHELESS...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVE AS COLD...BUT WEAKENING FLOW CONTS TO UPSLOPE OFF THE LAKES.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO EFFICIENT SNOW
PRODUCTION AND SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS NO LONGER ANTICIPATED.

OTHERWISE...THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED ALTHOUGH
BUILDING HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY DEGRADE THE WIND COMPONENT. NO
CHANGE WAS NEEDED FOR THE FRIGID TEMP PROGNOSIS.

SUNDAY WILL BE GENERALLY DRY AND CONTINUED COLD...EVEN THOUGH MID
AND HIGH CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY ENCROACH AS WARM...MOIST
ADVECTION ENSUES IN ADVN OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LIGHT SNOW
MAY DEVELOP NEAR ZZV AS NIGHT FALLS...CHC POPS WERE MAINTAINED IN
THAT VICINITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES MONDAY.

SOUTHWARD DIGGING SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER TROUGH AND PIVOTING
UPPER LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL RIDE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. THERE REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS MUCH FASTER AND LESS AMPLIFIED
WITH THE FIRST LOW THAN THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME. BASED ON NATIONAL
GUIDANCE AND CURRENT MODEL TRENDS...HAVE OPTED TO SIDE WITH THE
GFS. WHILE WARM ADVECTION IS NOT AS STRONG AS IT IS ON THE
ECMWF...THERE ARE SOME P-TYPE CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AS
THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.

MODEL SOUNDINGS...WHILE ON THE COOLER SIDE...SUPPORT LOWER SNOW
RATIOS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST LIFT PLACED BELOW THE LAYER
FOR EFFICIENT SNOW GROWTH. THUS...THE CURRENT SNOWFALL FORECAST
WAS DEPICTED AS SUCH. HOWEVER...IF THE QPF THAT IS FORECAST IN THE
MODEL MATERIALIZES...SNOW AMOUNTS COULD REACH VALUES FOR
HEADLINES. AT THIS POINT...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THESE CONCERNS IN THE
HWO.

TEMPERATURES WERE CONSTRUCTED HEAVILY ON THE GFS WITH
CONSIDERATION FOR ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SECOND LOW WILL BE CROSSING TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUING. AGAIN...P-TYPE ISSUES REMAIN WITH RAIN AND SNOW
CHANGING TO SNOW WITH COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY WITH THE SYSTEMS
DEPARTURE. RIDGING AND A WARM UP LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE BY LATE IN
THE PERIOD. HEAVY EMPHASIS WAS USED ON THE SUPERBLEND FOR THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR OR EVEN IFR VISIBILITIES IN SNOW
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD RAPIDLY DECREASE
THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO DIMINISH WITH NIGHTFALL. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT AS WINDS BACK TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST...AND THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. CANNOT RULE OUT SNOW
ARRIVING TO ZZV BY 00Z MON...BUT THE ODDS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ001-002-021-
     509>514.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 132319
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
619 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILL INDICES CAN BE
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EARLY EVE UPDATE FEATURED A DROP OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORY AS CONVECTIVE BANDS AND NO LONGER ORGANIZED FOR THE I 80
CORRIDOR.

NEVERTHELESS...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVE AS COLD...BUT WEAKENING FLOW CONTS TO UPSLOPE OFF THE LAKES.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO EFFICIENT SNOW
PRODUCTION AND SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS NO LONGER ANTICIPATED.

OTHERWISE...THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED ALTHOUGH
BUILDING HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY DEGRADE THE WIND COMPONENT. NO
CHANGE WAS NEEDED FOR THE FRIGID TEMP PROGNOSIS.

SUNDAY WILL BE GENERALLY DRY AND CONTINUED COLD...EVEN THOUGH MID
AND HIGH CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY ENCROACH AS WARM...MOIST
ADVECTION ENSUES IN ADVN OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LIGHT SNOW
MAY DEVELOP NEAR ZZV AS NIGHT FALLS...CHC POPS WERE MAINTAINED IN
THAT VICINITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES MONDAY.

SOUTHWARD DIGGING SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER TROUGH AND PIVOTING
UPPER LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL RIDE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. THERE REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS MUCH FASTER AND LESS AMPLIFIED
WITH THE FIRST LOW THAN THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME. BASED ON NATIONAL
GUIDANCE AND CURRENT MODEL TRENDS...HAVE OPTED TO SIDE WITH THE
GFS. WHILE WARM ADVECTION IS NOT AS STRONG AS IT IS ON THE
ECMWF...THERE ARE SOME P-TYPE CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AS
THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.

MODEL SOUNDINGS...WHILE ON THE COOLER SIDE...SUPPORT LOWER SNOW
RATIOS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST LIFT PLACED BELOW THE LAYER
FOR EFFICIENT SNOW GROWTH. THUS...THE CURRENT SNOWFALL FORECAST
WAS DEPICTED AS SUCH. HOWEVER...IF THE QPF THAT IS FORECAST IN THE
MODEL MATERIALIZES...SNOW AMOUNTS COULD REACH VALUES FOR
HEADLINES. AT THIS POINT...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THESE CONCERNS IN THE
HWO.

TEMPERATURES WERE CONSTRUCTED HEAVILY ON THE GFS WITH
CONSIDERATION FOR ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SECOND LOW WILL BE CROSSING TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUING. AGAIN...P-TYPE ISSUES REMAIN WITH RAIN AND SNOW
CHANGING TO SNOW WITH COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY WITH THE SYSTEMS
DEPARTURE. RIDGING AND A WARM UP LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE BY LATE IN
THE PERIOD. HEAVY EMPHASIS WAS USED ON THE SUPERBLEND FOR THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR OR EVEN IFR VISIBILITIES IN SNOW
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD RAPIDLY DECREASE
THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO DIMINISH WITH NIGHTFALL. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT AS WINDS BACK TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST...AND THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. CANNOT RULE OUT SNOW
ARRIVING TO ZZV BY 00Z MON...BUT THE ODDS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ001-002-021-
     509>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 132113
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
413 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF THIS EVENING. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WITH
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT WINTER
SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHSN CONTINUE IN NW LAKE ENHANCED FLOW.
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CELLULAR THANKS TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...WITH CONCENTRATED BANDING HARDER TO FIND. EXPECT ACTIVITY
TO BEGIN TO WANE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AS
INSTABILITY WANES AND SNOW GROWTH BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE. MAY BE
ONE OF THOSE SITUATIONS WHERE FLAKES CONTINUE TO FALL OUT OF
DISSIPATING CLOUDS. WILL CANCEL RIDGE ADVISORY AT 3 PM...AND
ANTICIPATE LAKE EFFECT ADVISORY EXPIRING AT 7 PM.

NW FLOW DIES DOWN OVERNIGHT...AND EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO DO
LIKEWISE. SOME CLEARING SHOULD NUDGE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH
TIME WITH SURFACE HIGH APPROACHING. SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN
ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY GOING. DID TWEAK LOW
TEMPS UPWARD SLIGHTLY IN A FEW AREAS IN RESPONSE TO LATEST
GUIDANCE...BUT BELOW ZERO READINGS SHOULD STILL BE COMMON.

SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...BEFORE
MID AND HI CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INVADE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
FIRST SNOW MAY ARRIVE NEAR ZZV JUST PRIOR TO 00Z MONDAY IN A
DEVELOPING OVERRUNNING PATTERN. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO FORECAST
HIGHS...STILL 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES MONDAY.

SOUTHWARD DIGGING SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER TROUGH AND PIVOTING
UPPER LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL RIDE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. THERE REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS MUCH FASTER AND LESS AMPLIFIED
WITH THE FIRST LOW THAN THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME. BASED ON NATIONAL
GUIDANCE AND CURRENT MODEL TRENDS...HAVE OPTED TO SIDE WITH THE
GFS. WHILE WARM ADVECTION IS NOT AS STRONG AS IT IS ON THE
ECMWF...THERE ARE SOME P-TYPE CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AS
THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.

MODEL SOUNDINGS...WHILE ON THE COOLER SIDE...SUPPORT LOWER SNOW
RATIOS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST LIFT PLACED BELOW THE LAYER
FOR EFFICIENT SNOW GROWTH. THUS...THE CURRENT SNOWFALL FORECAST
WAS DEPICTED AS SUCH. HOWEVER...IF THE QPF THAT IS FORECAST IN THE
MODEL MATERIALIZES...SNOW AMOUNTS COULD REACH VALUES FOR
HEADLINES. AT THIS POINT...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THESE CONCERNS IN THE
HWO.

TEMPERATURES WERE CONSTRUCTED HEAVILY ON THE GFS WITH
CONSIDERATION FOR ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SECOND LOW WILL BE CROSSING TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUING. AGAIN...P-TYPE ISSUES REMAIN WITH RAIN AND SNOW
CHANGING TO SNOW WITH COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY WITH THE SYSTEMS
DEPARTURE. RIDGING AND A WARM UP LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE BY LATE IN
THE PERIOD. HEAVY EMPHASIS WAS USED ON THE SUPERBLEND FOR THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MOST ORGANIZED BAND EXTENDS THROUGH BVI/PIT AT THE MOMENT BUT
EXPECT ITS POSITION TO WOBBLE A BIT. MORE DISORGANIZED SHSN ARE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. MVFR TO VFR CIGS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF SHSN...BUT BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE...OR EVEN LIFR CLOSER
TO I-80. GUSTY WNW WILL CONTINUE AS WELL. BY THIS EVENING...SHSN
COVERAGE WILL BE ON THE WANE AND WINDS WILL BECOME LESS GUSTY.
EXPECT CIGS TO SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT FROM PIT ON SOUTH AT LEAST.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ESTABLISHED IN MOST LOCATIONS BY SUNRISE
ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGH CLOUDS ADVANCING OVER ANY REMAINING STRATUS.
CL

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ007>009.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ001-002-021-
     509>514.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 131730
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1230 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR WILL PROVIDE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE AREA TODAY. MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE IN THE RIDGES AFFECTED BY
UPSLOPE FLOW AS WELL.   HI- RES MODELS HINT THAT THE MOST FAVORED
BAND LOCATIONS WILL EDGE NORTHEASTWARD WITH TIME...SO TRIED TO
TREND THE POPS IN THIS DIRECTION. EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED SHSN
BEGIN TO BLOOM IN OTHER AREAS AS WELL WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES PROVIDING SOME INSTABILITY. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. SNOW RATES
WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME LESS EFFICIENT WITH TIME AS THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE REACHES THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES ARE IN GOOD SHAPE
OVERALL. A PORTION OF THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY EXPIRES AT 16Z AND
EXPECT TO ALLOW THAT TO OCCUR.
CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AND SHIFT NORTHWARD AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE...
WEAKENING WINDS...AND A SNOW PACK WILL PROVIDE A SCENARIO WHERE
TEMPERATURES FALL CLOSE TO OR BELOW ZERO BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY...WITH A RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS.

SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS STILL HAVE NOT
LANDED ON AN EXACT TRACK OR STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW...BUT
THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MOVE TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...THE LONG
TERM WILL BE CREATED USING THE SUPERBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MOST ORGANIZED BAND EXTENDS THROUGH BVI/PIT AT THE MOMENT BUT
EXPECT ITS POSITION TO WOBBLE A BIT. MORE DISORGANIZED SHSN ARE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. MVFR TO VFR CIGS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF SHSN...BUT BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE...OR EVEN LIFR CLOSER
TO I-80. GUSTY WNW WILL CONTINUE AS WELL. BY THIS EVENING...SHSN
COVERAGE WILL BE ON THE WANE AND WINDS WILL BECOME LESS GUSTY.
EXPECT CIGS TO SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT FROM PIT ON SOUTH AT LEAST.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ESTABLISHED IN MOST LOCATIONS BY SUNRISE
ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGH CLOUDS ADVANCING OVER ANY REMAINING STRATUS.
CL


.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ007>009.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ001-002-021-
     509>514.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ510-
     512>514.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 131512
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1012 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR WILL PROVIDE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE AREA TODAY. MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE IN THE RIDGES AFFECTED BY
UPSLOPE FLOW AS WELL.   HI- RES MODELS HINT THAT THE MOST FAVORED
BAND LOCATIONS WILL EDGE NORTHEASTWARD WITH TIME...SO TRIED TO
TREND THE POPS IN THIS DIRECTION. EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED SHSN
BEGIN TO BLOOM IN OTHER AREAS AS WELL WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES PROVIDING SOME INSTABILITY. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. SNOW RATES
WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME LESS EFFICIENT WITH TIME AS THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE REACHES THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES ARE IN GOOD SHAPE
OVERALL. A PORTION OF THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY EXPIRES AT 16Z AND
EXPECT TO ALLOW THAT TO OCCUR.
CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AND SHIFT NORTHWARD AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE...
WEAKENING WINDS...AND A SNOW PACK WILL PROVIDE A SCENARIO WHERE
TEMPERATURES FALL CLOSE TO OR BELOW ZERO BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY...WITH A RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS.

SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS STILL HAVE NOT
LANDED ON AN EXACT TRACK OR STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW...BUT
THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MOVE TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...THE LONG
TERM WILL BE CREATED USING THE SUPERBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MULTI-LAKE FETCH LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING. THE STRONGEST AMONGST THEM WILL LIKELY WAFFLE
NEAR KFKL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WHILE ACTIVITY OVER OTHER
SITES SHOULD BE LESS ORGANIZED AND PERSISTENT. GENERALLY MVFR CIGS
WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE DAY...HOWEVER DUE TO THE HIGHLY
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE BANDS...PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST FROM
THE NNW THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ039-
     048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ074-
     076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ007>009.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ003-
     004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ001-002-021-
     509>514.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ510-
     512>514.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 131512
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1012 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR WILL PROVIDE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE AREA TODAY. MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE IN THE RIDGES AFFECTED BY
UPSLOPE FLOW AS WELL.   HI- RES MODELS HINT THAT THE MOST FAVORED
BAND LOCATIONS WILL EDGE NORTHEASTWARD WITH TIME...SO TRIED TO
TREND THE POPS IN THIS DIRECTION. EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED SHSN
BEGIN TO BLOOM IN OTHER AREAS AS WELL WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES PROVIDING SOME INSTABILITY. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. SNOW RATES
WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME LESS EFFICIENT WITH TIME AS THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE REACHES THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES ARE IN GOOD SHAPE
OVERALL. A PORTION OF THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY EXPIRES AT 16Z AND
EXPECT TO ALLOW THAT TO OCCUR.
CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AND SHIFT NORTHWARD AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE...
WEAKENING WINDS...AND A SNOW PACK WILL PROVIDE A SCENARIO WHERE
TEMPERATURES FALL CLOSE TO OR BELOW ZERO BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY...WITH A RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS.

SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS STILL HAVE NOT
LANDED ON AN EXACT TRACK OR STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW...BUT
THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MOVE TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...THE LONG
TERM WILL BE CREATED USING THE SUPERBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MULTI-LAKE FETCH LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING. THE STRONGEST AMONGST THEM WILL LIKELY WAFFLE
NEAR KFKL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WHILE ACTIVITY OVER OTHER
SITES SHOULD BE LESS ORGANIZED AND PERSISTENT. GENERALLY MVFR CIGS
WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE DAY...HOWEVER DUE TO THE HIGHLY
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE BANDS...PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST FROM
THE NNW THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ039-
     048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ074-
     076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ007>009.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ003-
     004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ001-002-021-
     509>514.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ510-
     512>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 131125
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
625 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR WILL PROVIDE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE AREA TODAY. MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BEST LOCATIONS TO SEE PROLONGED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL BE ACROSS
THE NORTH AND OVER THE RIDGES WITH THE LAKES MODIFYING THE
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTH AND STRONG UPSLOPE
EXPECTED ALL DAY. THE FACTORS WILL KEEP INVERSION HEIGHTS BETWEEN
800 AND 700MB IN THE 1-80 CORRIDOR AND RIDGES THROUGH THE DAY.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A DOUBLE LAKE BAND FURTHER SOUTH...SO THIS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. SNOW PRODUCTION WILL BECOME LESS
EFFICIENT OVER TIME AS ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
AND THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE REACHES THE SURFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AND SHIFT NORTHWARD AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE...
WEAKENING WINDS...AND A SNOW PACK WILL PROVIDE A SCENARIO WHERE
TEMPERATURES FALL CLOSE TO OR BELOW ZERO BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY...WITH A RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS.

SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS STILL HAVE NOT
LANDED ON AN EXACT TRACK OR STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW...BUT
THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MOVE TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...THE LONG
TERM WILL BE CREATED USING THE SUPERBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MULTI-LAKE FETCH LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING. THE STRONGEST AMONGST THEM WILL LIKELY WAFFLE
NEAR KFKL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WHILE ACTIVITY OVER OTHER
SITES SHOULD BE LESS ORGANIZED AND PERSISTENT. GENERALLY MVFR CIGS
WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE DAY...HOWEVER DUE TO THE HIGHLY
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE BANDS...PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST FROM
THE NNW THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ039-
     048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ074-
     076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ007>009.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ003-
     004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ001-002-021-
     509>514.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ510-
     512>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 131125
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
625 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR WILL PROVIDE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE AREA TODAY. MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BEST LOCATIONS TO SEE PROLONGED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL BE ACROSS
THE NORTH AND OVER THE RIDGES WITH THE LAKES MODIFYING THE
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTH AND STRONG UPSLOPE
EXPECTED ALL DAY. THE FACTORS WILL KEEP INVERSION HEIGHTS BETWEEN
800 AND 700MB IN THE 1-80 CORRIDOR AND RIDGES THROUGH THE DAY.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A DOUBLE LAKE BAND FURTHER SOUTH...SO THIS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. SNOW PRODUCTION WILL BECOME LESS
EFFICIENT OVER TIME AS ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
AND THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE REACHES THE SURFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AND SHIFT NORTHWARD AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE...
WEAKENING WINDS...AND A SNOW PACK WILL PROVIDE A SCENARIO WHERE
TEMPERATURES FALL CLOSE TO OR BELOW ZERO BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY...WITH A RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS.

SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS STILL HAVE NOT
LANDED ON AN EXACT TRACK OR STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW...BUT
THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MOVE TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...THE LONG
TERM WILL BE CREATED USING THE SUPERBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MULTI-LAKE FETCH LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING. THE STRONGEST AMONGST THEM WILL LIKELY WAFFLE
NEAR KFKL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WHILE ACTIVITY OVER OTHER
SITES SHOULD BE LESS ORGANIZED AND PERSISTENT. GENERALLY MVFR CIGS
WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE DAY...HOWEVER DUE TO THE HIGHLY
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE BANDS...PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST FROM
THE NNW THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ039-
     048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ074-
     076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ007>009.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ003-
     004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ001-002-021-
     509>514.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ510-
     512>514.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 131125
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
625 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR WILL PROVIDE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE AREA TODAY. MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BEST LOCATIONS TO SEE PROLONGED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL BE ACROSS
THE NORTH AND OVER THE RIDGES WITH THE LAKES MODIFYING THE
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTH AND STRONG UPSLOPE
EXPECTED ALL DAY. THE FACTORS WILL KEEP INVERSION HEIGHTS BETWEEN
800 AND 700MB IN THE 1-80 CORRIDOR AND RIDGES THROUGH THE DAY.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A DOUBLE LAKE BAND FURTHER SOUTH...SO THIS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. SNOW PRODUCTION WILL BECOME LESS
EFFICIENT OVER TIME AS ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
AND THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE REACHES THE SURFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AND SHIFT NORTHWARD AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE...
WEAKENING WINDS...AND A SNOW PACK WILL PROVIDE A SCENARIO WHERE
TEMPERATURES FALL CLOSE TO OR BELOW ZERO BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY...WITH A RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS.

SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS STILL HAVE NOT
LANDED ON AN EXACT TRACK OR STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW...BUT
THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MOVE TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...THE LONG
TERM WILL BE CREATED USING THE SUPERBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MULTI-LAKE FETCH LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING. THE STRONGEST AMONGST THEM WILL LIKELY WAFFLE
NEAR KFKL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WHILE ACTIVITY OVER OTHER
SITES SHOULD BE LESS ORGANIZED AND PERSISTENT. GENERALLY MVFR CIGS
WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE DAY...HOWEVER DUE TO THE HIGHLY
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE BANDS...PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST FROM
THE NNW THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ039-
     048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ074-
     076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ007>009.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ003-
     004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ001-002-021-
     509>514.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ510-
     512>514.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 130902
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
402 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR WILL PROVIDE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE AREA TODAY. MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BEST LOCATIONS TO SEE PROLONGED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL BE ACROSS
THE NORTH AND OVER THE RIDGES WITH THE LAKES MODIFYING THE
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTH AND STRONG UPSLOPE
EXPECTED ALL DAY. THE FACTORS WILL KEEP INVERSION HEIGHTS BETWEEN
800 AND 700MB IN THE 1-80 CORRIDOR AND RIDGES THROUGH THE DAY.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A DOUBLE LAKE BAND FURTHER SOUTH...SO THIS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. SNOW PRODUCTION WILL BECOME LESS
EFFICIENT OVER TIME AS ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
AND THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE REACHES THE SURFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AND SHIFT NORTHWARD AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE...
WEAKENING WINDS...AND A SNOW PACK WILL PROVIDE A SCENARIO WHERE
TEMPERATURES FALL CLOSE TO OR BELOW ZERO BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY...WITH A RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS.

SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS STILL HAVE NOT
LANDED ON AN EXACT TRACK OR STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW...BUT
THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MOVE TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...THE LONG
TERM WILL BE CREATED USING THE SUPERBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SECONDARY TROUGH WITH A MORE DISTINCT NNW WIND SHIFT IS
CURRENTLY RUNNING FROM JUST NORTH OF KDUJ TO JUST NORTH OF KPHD.
THIS WILL LIKELY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST...TEMPORARILY DROPPING
MANY SITES TO IFR AS IT DOES SO OVERNIGHT. BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE...THE HEAVIEST OF WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE NEAR KFKL. OTHER AREAS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR
AS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF INTO SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ039-
     048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ074-
     076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ007>009.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ003-
     004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ001-002-021-
     509>514.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ510-
     512>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 130902
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
402 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR WILL PROVIDE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE AREA TODAY. MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BEST LOCATIONS TO SEE PROLONGED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL BE ACROSS
THE NORTH AND OVER THE RIDGES WITH THE LAKES MODIFYING THE
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTH AND STRONG UPSLOPE
EXPECTED ALL DAY. THE FACTORS WILL KEEP INVERSION HEIGHTS BETWEEN
800 AND 700MB IN THE 1-80 CORRIDOR AND RIDGES THROUGH THE DAY.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A DOUBLE LAKE BAND FURTHER SOUTH...SO THIS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. SNOW PRODUCTION WILL BECOME LESS
EFFICIENT OVER TIME AS ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
AND THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE REACHES THE SURFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AND SHIFT NORTHWARD AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE...
WEAKENING WINDS...AND A SNOW PACK WILL PROVIDE A SCENARIO WHERE
TEMPERATURES FALL CLOSE TO OR BELOW ZERO BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY...WITH A RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS.

SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS STILL HAVE NOT
LANDED ON AN EXACT TRACK OR STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW...BUT
THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MOVE TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...THE LONG
TERM WILL BE CREATED USING THE SUPERBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SECONDARY TROUGH WITH A MORE DISTINCT NNW WIND SHIFT IS
CURRENTLY RUNNING FROM JUST NORTH OF KDUJ TO JUST NORTH OF KPHD.
THIS WILL LIKELY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST...TEMPORARILY DROPPING
MANY SITES TO IFR AS IT DOES SO OVERNIGHT. BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE...THE HEAVIEST OF WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE NEAR KFKL. OTHER AREAS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR
AS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF INTO SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ039-
     048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ074-
     076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ007>009.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ003-
     004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ001-002-021-
     509>514.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ510-
     512>514.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 130902
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
402 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR WILL PROVIDE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE AREA TODAY. MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BEST LOCATIONS TO SEE PROLONGED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL BE ACROSS
THE NORTH AND OVER THE RIDGES WITH THE LAKES MODIFYING THE
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTH AND STRONG UPSLOPE
EXPECTED ALL DAY. THE FACTORS WILL KEEP INVERSION HEIGHTS BETWEEN
800 AND 700MB IN THE 1-80 CORRIDOR AND RIDGES THROUGH THE DAY.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A DOUBLE LAKE BAND FURTHER SOUTH...SO THIS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. SNOW PRODUCTION WILL BECOME LESS
EFFICIENT OVER TIME AS ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
AND THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE REACHES THE SURFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AND SHIFT NORTHWARD AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE...
WEAKENING WINDS...AND A SNOW PACK WILL PROVIDE A SCENARIO WHERE
TEMPERATURES FALL CLOSE TO OR BELOW ZERO BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY...WITH A RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS.

SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS STILL HAVE NOT
LANDED ON AN EXACT TRACK OR STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW...BUT
THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MOVE TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...THE LONG
TERM WILL BE CREATED USING THE SUPERBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SECONDARY TROUGH WITH A MORE DISTINCT NNW WIND SHIFT IS
CURRENTLY RUNNING FROM JUST NORTH OF KDUJ TO JUST NORTH OF KPHD.
THIS WILL LIKELY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST...TEMPORARILY DROPPING
MANY SITES TO IFR AS IT DOES SO OVERNIGHT. BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE...THE HEAVIEST OF WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE NEAR KFKL. OTHER AREAS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR
AS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF INTO SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ039-
     048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ074-
     076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ007>009.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ003-
     004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ001-002-021-
     509>514.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ510-
     512>514.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 130603
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
103 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR WILL PROVIDE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE AREA TODAY. MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL PERTAIN TO SNOW BANDS THE WILL COVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AS THE ARCTIC AIR TAKES HOLD. IT WILL BE A
TRICKY FORECAST AS THE ARCTIC AIR MASS IS ALSO DRYING THE LOWER
LEVELS AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS HEAD THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS. HAVE
EXTENDED THE WSW TO COVER THE RIDGES IN WESTMORELAND AND FAYETTE
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN MODIFIED WITH A BLEND OF HIRES
GUIDANCE.

BEST LOCATIONS TO SEE PROLONGED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL BE ACROSS
THE NORTH AND OVER THE RIDGES WITH THE LAKES MODIFYING THE
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTH AND STRONG UPSLOPE
EXPECTED ALL DAY. THE FACTORS WILL KEEP INVERSION HEIGHTS BETWEEN
800 AND 700MB IN THE 1-80 CORRIDOR AND RIDGES THROUGH THE DAY.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A DOUBLE LAKE BAND FURTHER SOUTH...SO THIS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. SNOW PRODUCTION WILL BECOME LESS
EFFICIENT OVER TIME AS ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA AND THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE REACHES THE SURFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AND SHIFT NORTHWARD AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE...
WEAKENING WINDS...AND A SNOW PACK WILL PROVIDE A SCENARIO WHERE
TEMPERATURES FALL CLOSE TO OR BELOW ZERO BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY...WITH A RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS.

SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS STILL HAVE NOT
LANDED ON AN EXACT TRACK OR STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW...BUT
THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MOVE TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...THE LONG
TERM WILL BE CREATED USING THE SUPERBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SECONDARY TROUGH WITH A MORE DISTINCT NNW WIND SHIFT IS
CURRENTLY RUNNING FROM JUST NORTH OF KDUJ TO JUST NORTH OF KPHD.
THIS WILL LIKELY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST...TEMPORARILY DROPPING
MANY SITES TO IFR AS IT DOES SO OVERNIGHT. BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE...THE HEAVIEST OF WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE NEAR KFKL. OTHER AREAS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR
AS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF INTO SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ039-
     048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ074-
     076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ007>009.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ003-
     004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ001-002-021-
     509>514.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ510-
     512>514.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 130603
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
103 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR WILL PROVIDE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE AREA TODAY. MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL PERTAIN TO SNOW BANDS THE WILL COVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AS THE ARCTIC AIR TAKES HOLD. IT WILL BE A
TRICKY FORECAST AS THE ARCTIC AIR MASS IS ALSO DRYING THE LOWER
LEVELS AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS HEAD THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS. HAVE
EXTENDED THE WSW TO COVER THE RIDGES IN WESTMORELAND AND FAYETTE
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN MODIFIED WITH A BLEND OF HIRES
GUIDANCE.

BEST LOCATIONS TO SEE PROLONGED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL BE ACROSS
THE NORTH AND OVER THE RIDGES WITH THE LAKES MODIFYING THE
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTH AND STRONG UPSLOPE
EXPECTED ALL DAY. THE FACTORS WILL KEEP INVERSION HEIGHTS BETWEEN
800 AND 700MB IN THE 1-80 CORRIDOR AND RIDGES THROUGH THE DAY.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A DOUBLE LAKE BAND FURTHER SOUTH...SO THIS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. SNOW PRODUCTION WILL BECOME LESS
EFFICIENT OVER TIME AS ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA AND THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE REACHES THE SURFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AND SHIFT NORTHWARD AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE...
WEAKENING WINDS...AND A SNOW PACK WILL PROVIDE A SCENARIO WHERE
TEMPERATURES FALL CLOSE TO OR BELOW ZERO BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY...WITH A RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS.

SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS STILL HAVE NOT
LANDED ON AN EXACT TRACK OR STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW...BUT
THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MOVE TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...THE LONG
TERM WILL BE CREATED USING THE SUPERBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SECONDARY TROUGH WITH A MORE DISTINCT NNW WIND SHIFT IS
CURRENTLY RUNNING FROM JUST NORTH OF KDUJ TO JUST NORTH OF KPHD.
THIS WILL LIKELY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST...TEMPORARILY DROPPING
MANY SITES TO IFR AS IT DOES SO OVERNIGHT. BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE...THE HEAVIEST OF WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE NEAR KFKL. OTHER AREAS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR
AS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF INTO SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ039-
     048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ074-
     076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ007>009.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ003-
     004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ001-002-021-
     509>514.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ510-
     512>514.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 130558 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1258 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR WILL PROVIDE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE AREA TODAY. MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL PERTAIN TO SNOW BANDS THE WILL COVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AS THE ARCTIC AIR TAKES HOLD. IT WILL BE A
TRICKY FORECAST AS THE ARCTIC AIR MASS IS ALSO DRYING THE LOWER
LEVELS AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS HEAD THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS. HAVE
EXTENDED THE WSW TO COVER THE RIDGES IN WESTMORELAND AND FAYETTE
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN MODIFIED WITH A BLEND OF HIRES
GUIDANCE.

BEST LOCATIONS TO SEE PROLONGED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL BE ACROSS
THE NORTH AND OVER THE RIDGES WITH THE LAKES MODIFYING THE
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTH AND STRONG UPSLOPE
EXPECTED ALL DAY. THE FACTORS WILL KEEP INVERSION HEIGHTS BETWEEN
800 AND 700MB IN THE 1-80 CORRIDOR AND RIDGES THROUGH THE DAY.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A DOUBLE LAKE BAND FURTHER SOUTH...SO THIS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. SNOW PRODUCTION WILL BECOME LESS
EFFICIENT OVER TIME AS ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA AND THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE REACHES THE SURFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AND SHIFT NORTHWARD AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE...
WEAKENING WINDS...AND A SNOW PACK WILL PROVIDE A SCENARIO WHERE
TEMPERATURES FALL CLOSE TO OR BELOW ZERO BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY...WITH A RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS.

SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS STILL HAVE NOT
LANDED ON AN EXACT TRACK OR STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW...BUT
THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MOVE TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...THE LONG
TERM WILL BE CREATED USING THE SUPERBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOST IMPORTANT FEATURE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE TAFS WILL BE
THE ARRIVAL OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AT
CLEVELAND SHOW 1/4SM VISIBILITY WITH HEAVY SNOW AND NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS TO 30KT. ALTHOUGH THE LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT
WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES INLAND OFF LAKE ERIE...STILL
THINK THAT WIDESPREAD 1/2 TO 1 MILE VISIBILITIES AND WIND GUSTS TO
25-30KT ARE POSSIBLE AT EACH TERMINAL AS THE LINE MOVES THROUGH.
THIS LINE SHOULD HAVE MOVED THROUGH ALL LOCAL TERMINALS BY
06Z.

ALTHOUGH SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT AT MOST TERMINALS...FKL IS LIKELY TO BE THE
TERMINAL WITH THE LOWEST FLIGHT CONDITIONS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF
A LAKE HURON- ERIE SNOWBAND TO SET UP WITH NORTHWEST WINDS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THERE THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY. ZZV COULD MANAGE TO EITHER SCATTER OUT OR HAVE CEILINGS
LIFT TO VFR ON SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE BEHIND
THE FRONT AND SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ039-
     048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ074-076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ007>009.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ003-
     004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ001-002-021-
     509>514.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ510-512>514.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 130558 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1258 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR WILL PROVIDE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE AREA TODAY. MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL PERTAIN TO SNOW BANDS THE WILL COVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AS THE ARCTIC AIR TAKES HOLD. IT WILL BE A
TRICKY FORECAST AS THE ARCTIC AIR MASS IS ALSO DRYING THE LOWER
LEVELS AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS HEAD THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS. HAVE
EXTENDED THE WSW TO COVER THE RIDGES IN WESTMORELAND AND FAYETTE
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN MODIFIED WITH A BLEND OF HIRES
GUIDANCE.

BEST LOCATIONS TO SEE PROLONGED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL BE ACROSS
THE NORTH AND OVER THE RIDGES WITH THE LAKES MODIFYING THE
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTH AND STRONG UPSLOPE
EXPECTED ALL DAY. THE FACTORS WILL KEEP INVERSION HEIGHTS BETWEEN
800 AND 700MB IN THE 1-80 CORRIDOR AND RIDGES THROUGH THE DAY.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A DOUBLE LAKE BAND FURTHER SOUTH...SO THIS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. SNOW PRODUCTION WILL BECOME LESS
EFFICIENT OVER TIME AS ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA AND THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE REACHES THE SURFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AND SHIFT NORTHWARD AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE...
WEAKENING WINDS...AND A SNOW PACK WILL PROVIDE A SCENARIO WHERE
TEMPERATURES FALL CLOSE TO OR BELOW ZERO BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY...WITH A RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS.

SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS STILL HAVE NOT
LANDED ON AN EXACT TRACK OR STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW...BUT
THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MOVE TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...THE LONG
TERM WILL BE CREATED USING THE SUPERBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOST IMPORTANT FEATURE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE TAFS WILL BE
THE ARRIVAL OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AT
CLEVELAND SHOW 1/4SM VISIBILITY WITH HEAVY SNOW AND NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS TO 30KT. ALTHOUGH THE LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT
WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES INLAND OFF LAKE ERIE...STILL
THINK THAT WIDESPREAD 1/2 TO 1 MILE VISIBILITIES AND WIND GUSTS TO
25-30KT ARE POSSIBLE AT EACH TERMINAL AS THE LINE MOVES THROUGH.
THIS LINE SHOULD HAVE MOVED THROUGH ALL LOCAL TERMINALS BY
06Z.

ALTHOUGH SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT AT MOST TERMINALS...FKL IS LIKELY TO BE THE
TERMINAL WITH THE LOWEST FLIGHT CONDITIONS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF
A LAKE HURON- ERIE SNOWBAND TO SET UP WITH NORTHWEST WINDS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THERE THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY. ZZV COULD MANAGE TO EITHER SCATTER OUT OR HAVE CEILINGS
LIFT TO VFR ON SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE BEHIND
THE FRONT AND SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ039-
     048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ074-076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ007>009.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ003-
     004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ001-002-021-
     509>514.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ510-512>514.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 130558 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1258 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR WILL PROVIDE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE AREA TODAY. MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL PERTAIN TO SNOW BANDS THE WILL COVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AS THE ARCTIC AIR TAKES HOLD. IT WILL BE A
TRICKY FORECAST AS THE ARCTIC AIR MASS IS ALSO DRYING THE LOWER
LEVELS AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS HEAD THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS. HAVE
EXTENDED THE WSW TO COVER THE RIDGES IN WESTMORELAND AND FAYETTE
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN MODIFIED WITH A BLEND OF HIRES
GUIDANCE.

BEST LOCATIONS TO SEE PROLONGED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL BE ACROSS
THE NORTH AND OVER THE RIDGES WITH THE LAKES MODIFYING THE
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTH AND STRONG UPSLOPE
EXPECTED ALL DAY. THE FACTORS WILL KEEP INVERSION HEIGHTS BETWEEN
800 AND 700MB IN THE 1-80 CORRIDOR AND RIDGES THROUGH THE DAY.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A DOUBLE LAKE BAND FURTHER SOUTH...SO THIS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. SNOW PRODUCTION WILL BECOME LESS
EFFICIENT OVER TIME AS ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA AND THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE REACHES THE SURFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AND SHIFT NORTHWARD AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE...
WEAKENING WINDS...AND A SNOW PACK WILL PROVIDE A SCENARIO WHERE
TEMPERATURES FALL CLOSE TO OR BELOW ZERO BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY...WITH A RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS.

SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS STILL HAVE NOT
LANDED ON AN EXACT TRACK OR STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW...BUT
THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MOVE TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...THE LONG
TERM WILL BE CREATED USING THE SUPERBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOST IMPORTANT FEATURE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE TAFS WILL BE
THE ARRIVAL OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AT
CLEVELAND SHOW 1/4SM VISIBILITY WITH HEAVY SNOW AND NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS TO 30KT. ALTHOUGH THE LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT
WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES INLAND OFF LAKE ERIE...STILL
THINK THAT WIDESPREAD 1/2 TO 1 MILE VISIBILITIES AND WIND GUSTS TO
25-30KT ARE POSSIBLE AT EACH TERMINAL AS THE LINE MOVES THROUGH.
THIS LINE SHOULD HAVE MOVED THROUGH ALL LOCAL TERMINALS BY
06Z.

ALTHOUGH SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT AT MOST TERMINALS...FKL IS LIKELY TO BE THE
TERMINAL WITH THE LOWEST FLIGHT CONDITIONS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF
A LAKE HURON- ERIE SNOWBAND TO SET UP WITH NORTHWEST WINDS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THERE THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY. ZZV COULD MANAGE TO EITHER SCATTER OUT OR HAVE CEILINGS
LIFT TO VFR ON SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE BEHIND
THE FRONT AND SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ039-
     048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ074-076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ007>009.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ003-
     004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ001-002-021-
     509>514.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ510-512>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 130307
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1007 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ARCTIC BOUNDARY NOW CROSSING INTO WESTERN PA AS WV IMAGERY SHOWS
THE JET CORE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE PIVOTING OVER THE
AREA. LATEST MODEL PROGS SHOW SNOW QUICKLY BACKING OFF BEHIND THE
FRONT AS MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ACROSS LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WHERE THE LAKES
SHOULD MODIFY THE LOWER LEVELS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CONTINUED SNOW
SHOWERS. WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS NEAR 700MB AND ONLY A SMALL
AMOUNT OF SHEAR IN THE WIND PROFILE SNOW WILL CONTINUE HERE
THROUGH SATURDAY BUT PRODUCTION WILL BECOME LESS EFFICIENT OVER
TIME AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN PUSHES THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE RIDGES IN
UPSLOPE SNOW UNTIL THE WHOLE BOUNDARY LAYER FALLS WELL BELOW THE
GROWTH ZONE...SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THE RIDGES OF PRESTON TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES. &&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AND SHIFT
NORTHWARD AS A SURFACE RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD OVERHEAD FOR
SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO BACK OFF...WITH WIND
CHILL CONCERNS DIMINISHING IN OHIO. HOWEVER...WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE AND LIGHT WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL CLOSE TO OR BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...SO ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN AS IS FOR THE REST
OF THE CWA UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A FEW
DEGREES ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SCATTERING
OF THE CLOUDS. TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
BOTH PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE
MONDAY. BY LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS STILL DIFFER
ON EXACT TRACK BUT SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...BUT ALSO POTENTIAL FOR A MIX WITH
RAIN OR ALL RAIN WHERE BETTER QPF IS FORECAST. FOR NOW HAVE NOT
STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ALTHOUGH EVEN THE WARMER ECMWF
WRAPS COLD AIR BACK IN LATER TUESDAY SO HAVE KEPT MAINLY SNOW.

SYSTEM EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY FAST MOVING
CLIPPER SYSTEM WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL DELIVER ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW
SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF COLD AIR. HEIGHTS ALOFT THEN
BEGIN TO RISE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH STRONG WARM
ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOST IMPORTANT FEATURE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE TAFS WILL BE
THE ARRIVAL OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AT
CLEVELAND SHOW 1/4SM VISIBILITY WITH HEAVY SNOW AND NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS TO 30KT. ALTHOUGH THE LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT
WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES INLAND OFF LAKE ERIE...STILL
THINK THAT WIDESPREAD 1/2 TO 1 MILE VISIBILITIES AND WIND GUSTS TO
25-30KT ARE POSSIBLE AT EACH TERMINAL AS THE LINE MOVES THROUGH.
THIS LINE SHOULD HAVE MOVED THROUGH ALL LOCAL TERMINALS BY
06Z.

ALTHOUGH SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT AT MOST TERMINALS...FKL IS LIKELY TO BE THE
TERMINAL WITH THE LOWEST FLIGHT CONDITIONS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF
A LAKE HURON- ERIE SNOWBAND TO SET UP WITH NORTHWEST WINDS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THERE THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY. ZZV COULD MANAGE TO EITHER SCATTER OUT OR HAVE CEILINGS
LIFT TO VFR ON SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE BEHIND
THE FRONT AND SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ039-048-
     049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ007>009.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ003-004-
     012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ001-002-021-
     509>514.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     WVZ512>514.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 122332
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
632 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS CURRENT TIMING OF
POTENTIAL SQUALL CONDITIONS STILL LOOKS GOOD AS WV IMAGERY SHOWS
THE JET CORE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE PIVOTING OVER THE
AREA. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST OTHER THAN MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES.
PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..

SHORTWAVE PIVOTING ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING SNOW CHANCES IN THE RIDGES AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT
PASSAGE PROGGED FOR THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. BOTH HI RES AND LONGER
RANGE MODEL SOUNDINGS IN BUFKIT SUGGEST A PERIOD WHERE DEEP
MOISTURE...IN A LAYER FROM ABOUT 600MB TO 850MB...WILL BE WELL
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT EFFICIENT
SNOWFALL FOR A PERIOD...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ANTICIPATED
WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT IN UPSLOPE SNOW UNTIL THE WHOLE BOUNDARY
LAYER FALLS WELL BELOW THE GROWTH ZONE. WITH THIS IN MIND...A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE RIDGES OF PRESTON
TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE WITH THE TIMING
OF THE SNOW SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL SQUALLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
PROGGED FOR PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE LINE TO BE INTO EASTERN
OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PA BY 00Z AND PITTSBURGH BY 03Z. VARIOUS
RUNS OF THE HRRR AND TO A LESSER DEGREE OTHER SNOW SQUALLS PROGS
SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKENING AS THE LINE COMES
ACROSS. GENERALLY ANTICIPATE A HALF TO AN INCH OF SNOW...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
AND PROVIDE FOR A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AREAWIDE UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY WITH MAXIMUM WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER APPROACHING 25
TO 35KTS. THIS...ADDED TO TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES WELL BELOW ZERO. THIS
SUPPORTS THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THAT WAS ISSUED. 40MPH WIND
GUSTS OVERNIGHT IN THE RIDGES WILL ALLOW VALUES TO GET VERY CLOSE
TO WARNING CRITERIA BUT AT THIS POINT...THE WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO AN ADVISORY WITH SOME -25 VALUES POSSIBLE IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN OF TUCKER COUNTY.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SEVERAL DUAL-LAKE SNOW BANDS. THE LATEST
ITERATION OF MODELS HAS THE MORE PROMINENT BAND SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
SOUTH FROM LAST NIGHT SO WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE ACTUAL PLACEMENT
OF SNOW BANDS...HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH
FOR VENANGO COUNTY TO AN ADVISORY FOR MERCER...VENANGO...AND
FOREST COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL LAKE PLUMES MAY SUPPORT SNOW BEYOND
THESE ADVISORIES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY
IN THEIR PLACEMENT...NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES WERE ADDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AND SHIFT
NORTHWARD AS A SURFACE RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD OVERHEAD FOR
SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO BACK OFF...WITH WIND
CHILL CONCERNS DIMINISHING IN OHIO. HOWEVER...WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE AND LIGHT WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL CLOSE TO OR BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...SO ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN AS IS FOR THE REST
OF THE CWA UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A FEW
DEGREES ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SCATTERING
OF THE CLOUDS. TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
BOTH PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE
MONDAY. BY LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS STILL DIFFER
ON EXACT TRACK BUT SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...BUT ALSO POTENTIAL FOR A MIX WITH
RAIN OR ALL RAIN WHERE BETTER QPF IS FORECAST. FOR NOW HAVE NOT
STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ALTHOUGH EVEN THE WARMER ECMWF
WRAPS COLD AIR BACK IN LATER TUESDAY SO HAVE KEPT MAINLY SNOW.

SYSTEM EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY FAST MOVING
CLIPPER SYSTEM WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL DELIVER ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW
SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF COLD AIR. HEIGHTS ALOFT THEN
BEGIN TO RISE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH STRONG WARM
ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOST IMPORTANT FEATURE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE TAFS WILL BE
THE ARRIVAL OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AT
CLEVELAND SHOW 1/4SM VISIBILITY WITH HEAVY SNOW AND NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS TO 30KT. ALTHOUGH THE LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT
WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES INLAND OFF LAKE ERIE...STILL
THINK THAT WIDESPREAD 1/2 TO 1 MILE VISIBILITIES AND WIND GUSTS TO
25-30KT ARE POSSIBLE AT EACH TERMINAL AS THE LINE MOVES THROUGH.
THIS LINE SHOULD HAVE MOVED THROUGH ALL LOCAL TERMINALS BY
06Z.

ALTHOUGH SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT AT MOST TERMINALS...FKL IS LIKELY TO BE THE
TERMINAL WITH THE LOWEST FLIGHT CONDITIONS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF
A LAKE HURON- ERIE SNOWBAND TO SET UP WITH NORTHWEST WINDS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THERE THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY. ZZV COULD MANAGE TO EITHER SCATTER OUT OR HAVE CEILINGS
LIFT TO VFR ON SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE BEHIND
THE FRONT AND SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR OHZ039-048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ007>009.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR WVZ003-004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ001-002-021-509>514.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     WVZ512>514.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 122332
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
632 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS CURRENT TIMING OF
POTENTIAL SQUALL CONDITIONS STILL LOOKS GOOD AS WV IMAGERY SHOWS
THE JET CORE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE PIVOTING OVER THE
AREA. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST OTHER THAN MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES.
PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..

SHORTWAVE PIVOTING ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING SNOW CHANCES IN THE RIDGES AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT
PASSAGE PROGGED FOR THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. BOTH HI RES AND LONGER
RANGE MODEL SOUNDINGS IN BUFKIT SUGGEST A PERIOD WHERE DEEP
MOISTURE...IN A LAYER FROM ABOUT 600MB TO 850MB...WILL BE WELL
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT EFFICIENT
SNOWFALL FOR A PERIOD...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ANTICIPATED
WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT IN UPSLOPE SNOW UNTIL THE WHOLE BOUNDARY
LAYER FALLS WELL BELOW THE GROWTH ZONE. WITH THIS IN MIND...A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE RIDGES OF PRESTON
TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE WITH THE TIMING
OF THE SNOW SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL SQUALLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
PROGGED FOR PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE LINE TO BE INTO EASTERN
OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PA BY 00Z AND PITTSBURGH BY 03Z. VARIOUS
RUNS OF THE HRRR AND TO A LESSER DEGREE OTHER SNOW SQUALLS PROGS
SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKENING AS THE LINE COMES
ACROSS. GENERALLY ANTICIPATE A HALF TO AN INCH OF SNOW...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
AND PROVIDE FOR A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AREAWIDE UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY WITH MAXIMUM WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER APPROACHING 25
TO 35KTS. THIS...ADDED TO TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES WELL BELOW ZERO. THIS
SUPPORTS THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THAT WAS ISSUED. 40MPH WIND
GUSTS OVERNIGHT IN THE RIDGES WILL ALLOW VALUES TO GET VERY CLOSE
TO WARNING CRITERIA BUT AT THIS POINT...THE WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO AN ADVISORY WITH SOME -25 VALUES POSSIBLE IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN OF TUCKER COUNTY.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SEVERAL DUAL-LAKE SNOW BANDS. THE LATEST
ITERATION OF MODELS HAS THE MORE PROMINENT BAND SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
SOUTH FROM LAST NIGHT SO WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE ACTUAL PLACEMENT
OF SNOW BANDS...HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH
FOR VENANGO COUNTY TO AN ADVISORY FOR MERCER...VENANGO...AND
FOREST COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL LAKE PLUMES MAY SUPPORT SNOW BEYOND
THESE ADVISORIES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY
IN THEIR PLACEMENT...NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES WERE ADDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AND SHIFT
NORTHWARD AS A SURFACE RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD OVERHEAD FOR
SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO BACK OFF...WITH WIND
CHILL CONCERNS DIMINISHING IN OHIO. HOWEVER...WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE AND LIGHT WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL CLOSE TO OR BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...SO ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN AS IS FOR THE REST
OF THE CWA UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A FEW
DEGREES ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SCATTERING
OF THE CLOUDS. TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
BOTH PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE
MONDAY. BY LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS STILL DIFFER
ON EXACT TRACK BUT SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...BUT ALSO POTENTIAL FOR A MIX WITH
RAIN OR ALL RAIN WHERE BETTER QPF IS FORECAST. FOR NOW HAVE NOT
STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ALTHOUGH EVEN THE WARMER ECMWF
WRAPS COLD AIR BACK IN LATER TUESDAY SO HAVE KEPT MAINLY SNOW.

SYSTEM EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY FAST MOVING
CLIPPER SYSTEM WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL DELIVER ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW
SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF COLD AIR. HEIGHTS ALOFT THEN
BEGIN TO RISE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH STRONG WARM
ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOST IMPORTANT FEATURE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE TAFS WILL BE
THE ARRIVAL OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AT
CLEVELAND SHOW 1/4SM VISIBILITY WITH HEAVY SNOW AND NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS TO 30KT. ALTHOUGH THE LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT
WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES INLAND OFF LAKE ERIE...STILL
THINK THAT WIDESPREAD 1/2 TO 1 MILE VISIBILITIES AND WIND GUSTS TO
25-30KT ARE POSSIBLE AT EACH TERMINAL AS THE LINE MOVES THROUGH.
THIS LINE SHOULD HAVE MOVED THROUGH ALL LOCAL TERMINALS BY
06Z.

ALTHOUGH SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT AT MOST TERMINALS...FKL IS LIKELY TO BE THE
TERMINAL WITH THE LOWEST FLIGHT CONDITIONS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF
A LAKE HURON- ERIE SNOWBAND TO SET UP WITH NORTHWEST WINDS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THERE THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY. ZZV COULD MANAGE TO EITHER SCATTER OUT OR HAVE CEILINGS
LIFT TO VFR ON SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE BEHIND
THE FRONT AND SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR OHZ039-048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ007>009.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR WVZ003-004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ001-002-021-509>514.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     WVZ512>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 122332
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
632 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS CURRENT TIMING OF
POTENTIAL SQUALL CONDITIONS STILL LOOKS GOOD AS WV IMAGERY SHOWS
THE JET CORE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE PIVOTING OVER THE
AREA. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST OTHER THAN MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES.
PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..

SHORTWAVE PIVOTING ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING SNOW CHANCES IN THE RIDGES AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT
PASSAGE PROGGED FOR THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. BOTH HI RES AND LONGER
RANGE MODEL SOUNDINGS IN BUFKIT SUGGEST A PERIOD WHERE DEEP
MOISTURE...IN A LAYER FROM ABOUT 600MB TO 850MB...WILL BE WELL
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT EFFICIENT
SNOWFALL FOR A PERIOD...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ANTICIPATED
WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT IN UPSLOPE SNOW UNTIL THE WHOLE BOUNDARY
LAYER FALLS WELL BELOW THE GROWTH ZONE. WITH THIS IN MIND...A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE RIDGES OF PRESTON
TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE WITH THE TIMING
OF THE SNOW SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL SQUALLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
PROGGED FOR PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE LINE TO BE INTO EASTERN
OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PA BY 00Z AND PITTSBURGH BY 03Z. VARIOUS
RUNS OF THE HRRR AND TO A LESSER DEGREE OTHER SNOW SQUALLS PROGS
SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKENING AS THE LINE COMES
ACROSS. GENERALLY ANTICIPATE A HALF TO AN INCH OF SNOW...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
AND PROVIDE FOR A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AREAWIDE UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY WITH MAXIMUM WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER APPROACHING 25
TO 35KTS. THIS...ADDED TO TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES WELL BELOW ZERO. THIS
SUPPORTS THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THAT WAS ISSUED. 40MPH WIND
GUSTS OVERNIGHT IN THE RIDGES WILL ALLOW VALUES TO GET VERY CLOSE
TO WARNING CRITERIA BUT AT THIS POINT...THE WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO AN ADVISORY WITH SOME -25 VALUES POSSIBLE IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN OF TUCKER COUNTY.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SEVERAL DUAL-LAKE SNOW BANDS. THE LATEST
ITERATION OF MODELS HAS THE MORE PROMINENT BAND SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
SOUTH FROM LAST NIGHT SO WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE ACTUAL PLACEMENT
OF SNOW BANDS...HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH
FOR VENANGO COUNTY TO AN ADVISORY FOR MERCER...VENANGO...AND
FOREST COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL LAKE PLUMES MAY SUPPORT SNOW BEYOND
THESE ADVISORIES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY
IN THEIR PLACEMENT...NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES WERE ADDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AND SHIFT
NORTHWARD AS A SURFACE RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD OVERHEAD FOR
SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO BACK OFF...WITH WIND
CHILL CONCERNS DIMINISHING IN OHIO. HOWEVER...WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE AND LIGHT WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL CLOSE TO OR BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...SO ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN AS IS FOR THE REST
OF THE CWA UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A FEW
DEGREES ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SCATTERING
OF THE CLOUDS. TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
BOTH PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE
MONDAY. BY LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS STILL DIFFER
ON EXACT TRACK BUT SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...BUT ALSO POTENTIAL FOR A MIX WITH
RAIN OR ALL RAIN WHERE BETTER QPF IS FORECAST. FOR NOW HAVE NOT
STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ALTHOUGH EVEN THE WARMER ECMWF
WRAPS COLD AIR BACK IN LATER TUESDAY SO HAVE KEPT MAINLY SNOW.

SYSTEM EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY FAST MOVING
CLIPPER SYSTEM WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL DELIVER ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW
SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF COLD AIR. HEIGHTS ALOFT THEN
BEGIN TO RISE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH STRONG WARM
ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOST IMPORTANT FEATURE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE TAFS WILL BE
THE ARRIVAL OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AT
CLEVELAND SHOW 1/4SM VISIBILITY WITH HEAVY SNOW AND NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS TO 30KT. ALTHOUGH THE LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT
WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES INLAND OFF LAKE ERIE...STILL
THINK THAT WIDESPREAD 1/2 TO 1 MILE VISIBILITIES AND WIND GUSTS TO
25-30KT ARE POSSIBLE AT EACH TERMINAL AS THE LINE MOVES THROUGH.
THIS LINE SHOULD HAVE MOVED THROUGH ALL LOCAL TERMINALS BY
06Z.

ALTHOUGH SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT AT MOST TERMINALS...FKL IS LIKELY TO BE THE
TERMINAL WITH THE LOWEST FLIGHT CONDITIONS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF
A LAKE HURON- ERIE SNOWBAND TO SET UP WITH NORTHWEST WINDS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THERE THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY. ZZV COULD MANAGE TO EITHER SCATTER OUT OR HAVE CEILINGS
LIFT TO VFR ON SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE BEHIND
THE FRONT AND SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR OHZ039-048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ007>009.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR WVZ003-004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ001-002-021-509>514.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     WVZ512>514.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 122248
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
548 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS CURRENT TIMING OF
POTENTIAL SQUALL CONDITIONS STILL LOOKS GOOD AS WV IMAGERY SHOWS
THE JET CORE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE PIVOTING OVER THE
AREA. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST OTHER THAN MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES.
PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..

SHORTWAVE PIVOTING ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING SNOW CHANCES IN THE RIDGES AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT
PASSAGE PROGGED FOR THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. BOTH HI RES AND LONGER
RANGE MODEL SOUNDINGS IN BUFKIT SUGGEST A PERIOD WHERE DEEP
MOISTURE...IN A LAYER FROM ABOUT 600MB TO 850MB...WILL BE WELL
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT EFFICIENT
SNOWFALL FOR A PERIOD...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ANTICIPATED
WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT IN UPSLOPE SNOW UNTIL THE WHOLE BOUNDARY
LAYER FALLS WELL BELOW THE GROWTH ZONE. WITH THIS IN MIND...A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE RIDGES OF PRESTON
TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE WITH THE TIMING
OF THE SNOW SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL SQUALLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
PROGGED FOR PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE LINE TO BE INTO EASTERN
OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PA BY 00Z AND PITTSBURGH BY 03Z. VARIOUS
RUNS OF THE HRRR AND TO A LESSER DEGREE OTHER SNOW SQUALLS PROGS SUGGEST
THAT THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKENING AS THE LINE COMES ACROSS.
GENERALLY ANTICIPATE A HALF TO AN INCH OF SNOW...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
AND PROVIDE FOR A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AREAWIDE UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY WITH MAXIMUM WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER APPROACHING 25
TO 35KTS. THIS...ADDED TO TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES WELL BELOW ZERO. THIS
SUPPORTS THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THAT WAS ISSUED. 40MPH WIND
GUSTS OVERNIGHT IN THE RIDGES WILL ALLOW VALUES TO GET VERY CLOSE
TO WARNING CRITERIA BUT AT THIS POINT...THE WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO AN ADVISORY WITH SOME -25 VALUES POSSIBLE IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN OF TUCKER COUNTY.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SEVERAL DUAL-LAKE SNOW BANDS. THE LATEST
ITERATION OF MODELS HAS THE MORE PROMINENT BAND SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
SOUTH FROM LAST NIGHT SO WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE ACTUAL PLACEMENT
OF SNOW BANDS...HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH
FOR VENANGO COUNTY TO AN ADVISORY FOR MERCER...VENANGO...AND
FOREST COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL LAKE PLUMES MAY SUPPORT SNOW BEYOND
THESE ADVISORIES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY
IN THEIR PLACEMENT...NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES WERE ADDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AND SHIFT
NORTHWARD AS A SURFACE RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD OVERHEAD FOR
SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO BACK OFF...WITH WIND
CHILL CONCERNS DIMINISHING IN OHIO. HOWEVER...WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE AND LIGHT WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL CLOSE TO OR BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...SO ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN AS IS FOR THE REST
OF THE CWA UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A FEW
DEGREES ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SCATTERING
OF THE CLOUDS. TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
BOTH PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE
MONDAY. BY LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS STILL DIFFER
ON EXACT TRACK BUT SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...BUT ALSO POTENTIAL FOR A MIX WITH
RAIN OR ALL RAIN WHERE BETTER QPF IS FORECAST. FOR NOW HAVE NOT
STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ALTHOUGH EVEN THE WARMER ECMWF
WRAPS COLD AIR BACK IN LATER TUESDAY SO HAVE KEPT MAINLY SNOW.

SYSTEM EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY FAST MOVING
CLIPPER SYSTEM WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL DELIVER ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW
SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF COLD AIR. HEIGHTS ALOFT THEN
BEGIN TO RISE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH STRONG WARM
ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW HAS DROPPED VSBY TO MVFR OR BELOW FOR A TIME AT KMGW AND
KLBE AS A SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC. SNOW SHOWERS
ALSO WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT...WITH MVFR TO
IFR THIS EVENING WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OVER
25KTS AND TURNING NORTHWEST WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SCATTERED RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR OHZ039-048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ007>009.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR WVZ003-004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ001-002-021-509>514.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     WVZ512>514.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 122248
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
548 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS CURRENT TIMING OF
POTENTIAL SQUALL CONDITIONS STILL LOOKS GOOD AS WV IMAGERY SHOWS
THE JET CORE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE PIVOTING OVER THE
AREA. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST OTHER THAN MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES.
PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..

SHORTWAVE PIVOTING ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING SNOW CHANCES IN THE RIDGES AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT
PASSAGE PROGGED FOR THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. BOTH HI RES AND LONGER
RANGE MODEL SOUNDINGS IN BUFKIT SUGGEST A PERIOD WHERE DEEP
MOISTURE...IN A LAYER FROM ABOUT 600MB TO 850MB...WILL BE WELL
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT EFFICIENT
SNOWFALL FOR A PERIOD...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ANTICIPATED
WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT IN UPSLOPE SNOW UNTIL THE WHOLE BOUNDARY
LAYER FALLS WELL BELOW THE GROWTH ZONE. WITH THIS IN MIND...A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE RIDGES OF PRESTON
TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE WITH THE TIMING
OF THE SNOW SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL SQUALLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
PROGGED FOR PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE LINE TO BE INTO EASTERN
OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PA BY 00Z AND PITTSBURGH BY 03Z. VARIOUS
RUNS OF THE HRRR AND TO A LESSER DEGREE OTHER SNOW SQUALLS PROGS SUGGEST
THAT THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKENING AS THE LINE COMES ACROSS.
GENERALLY ANTICIPATE A HALF TO AN INCH OF SNOW...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
AND PROVIDE FOR A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AREAWIDE UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY WITH MAXIMUM WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER APPROACHING 25
TO 35KTS. THIS...ADDED TO TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES WELL BELOW ZERO. THIS
SUPPORTS THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THAT WAS ISSUED. 40MPH WIND
GUSTS OVERNIGHT IN THE RIDGES WILL ALLOW VALUES TO GET VERY CLOSE
TO WARNING CRITERIA BUT AT THIS POINT...THE WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO AN ADVISORY WITH SOME -25 VALUES POSSIBLE IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN OF TUCKER COUNTY.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SEVERAL DUAL-LAKE SNOW BANDS. THE LATEST
ITERATION OF MODELS HAS THE MORE PROMINENT BAND SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
SOUTH FROM LAST NIGHT SO WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE ACTUAL PLACEMENT
OF SNOW BANDS...HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH
FOR VENANGO COUNTY TO AN ADVISORY FOR MERCER...VENANGO...AND
FOREST COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL LAKE PLUMES MAY SUPPORT SNOW BEYOND
THESE ADVISORIES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY
IN THEIR PLACEMENT...NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES WERE ADDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AND SHIFT
NORTHWARD AS A SURFACE RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD OVERHEAD FOR
SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO BACK OFF...WITH WIND
CHILL CONCERNS DIMINISHING IN OHIO. HOWEVER...WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE AND LIGHT WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL CLOSE TO OR BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...SO ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN AS IS FOR THE REST
OF THE CWA UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A FEW
DEGREES ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SCATTERING
OF THE CLOUDS. TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
BOTH PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE
MONDAY. BY LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS STILL DIFFER
ON EXACT TRACK BUT SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...BUT ALSO POTENTIAL FOR A MIX WITH
RAIN OR ALL RAIN WHERE BETTER QPF IS FORECAST. FOR NOW HAVE NOT
STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ALTHOUGH EVEN THE WARMER ECMWF
WRAPS COLD AIR BACK IN LATER TUESDAY SO HAVE KEPT MAINLY SNOW.

SYSTEM EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY FAST MOVING
CLIPPER SYSTEM WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL DELIVER ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW
SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF COLD AIR. HEIGHTS ALOFT THEN
BEGIN TO RISE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH STRONG WARM
ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW HAS DROPPED VSBY TO MVFR OR BELOW FOR A TIME AT KMGW AND
KLBE AS A SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC. SNOW SHOWERS
ALSO WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT...WITH MVFR TO
IFR THIS EVENING WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OVER
25KTS AND TURNING NORTHWEST WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SCATTERED RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR OHZ039-048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ007>009.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR WVZ003-004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ001-002-021-509>514.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     WVZ512>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 122248
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
548 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS CURRENT TIMING OF
POTENTIAL SQUALL CONDITIONS STILL LOOKS GOOD AS WV IMAGERY SHOWS
THE JET CORE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE PIVOTING OVER THE
AREA. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST OTHER THAN MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES.
PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..

SHORTWAVE PIVOTING ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING SNOW CHANCES IN THE RIDGES AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT
PASSAGE PROGGED FOR THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. BOTH HI RES AND LONGER
RANGE MODEL SOUNDINGS IN BUFKIT SUGGEST A PERIOD WHERE DEEP
MOISTURE...IN A LAYER FROM ABOUT 600MB TO 850MB...WILL BE WELL
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT EFFICIENT
SNOWFALL FOR A PERIOD...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ANTICIPATED
WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT IN UPSLOPE SNOW UNTIL THE WHOLE BOUNDARY
LAYER FALLS WELL BELOW THE GROWTH ZONE. WITH THIS IN MIND...A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE RIDGES OF PRESTON
TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE WITH THE TIMING
OF THE SNOW SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL SQUALLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
PROGGED FOR PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE LINE TO BE INTO EASTERN
OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PA BY 00Z AND PITTSBURGH BY 03Z. VARIOUS
RUNS OF THE HRRR AND TO A LESSER DEGREE OTHER SNOW SQUALLS PROGS SUGGEST
THAT THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKENING AS THE LINE COMES ACROSS.
GENERALLY ANTICIPATE A HALF TO AN INCH OF SNOW...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
AND PROVIDE FOR A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AREAWIDE UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY WITH MAXIMUM WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER APPROACHING 25
TO 35KTS. THIS...ADDED TO TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES WELL BELOW ZERO. THIS
SUPPORTS THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THAT WAS ISSUED. 40MPH WIND
GUSTS OVERNIGHT IN THE RIDGES WILL ALLOW VALUES TO GET VERY CLOSE
TO WARNING CRITERIA BUT AT THIS POINT...THE WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO AN ADVISORY WITH SOME -25 VALUES POSSIBLE IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN OF TUCKER COUNTY.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SEVERAL DUAL-LAKE SNOW BANDS. THE LATEST
ITERATION OF MODELS HAS THE MORE PROMINENT BAND SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
SOUTH FROM LAST NIGHT SO WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE ACTUAL PLACEMENT
OF SNOW BANDS...HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH
FOR VENANGO COUNTY TO AN ADVISORY FOR MERCER...VENANGO...AND
FOREST COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL LAKE PLUMES MAY SUPPORT SNOW BEYOND
THESE ADVISORIES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY
IN THEIR PLACEMENT...NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES WERE ADDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AND SHIFT
NORTHWARD AS A SURFACE RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD OVERHEAD FOR
SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO BACK OFF...WITH WIND
CHILL CONCERNS DIMINISHING IN OHIO. HOWEVER...WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE AND LIGHT WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL CLOSE TO OR BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...SO ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN AS IS FOR THE REST
OF THE CWA UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A FEW
DEGREES ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SCATTERING
OF THE CLOUDS. TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
BOTH PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE
MONDAY. BY LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS STILL DIFFER
ON EXACT TRACK BUT SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...BUT ALSO POTENTIAL FOR A MIX WITH
RAIN OR ALL RAIN WHERE BETTER QPF IS FORECAST. FOR NOW HAVE NOT
STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ALTHOUGH EVEN THE WARMER ECMWF
WRAPS COLD AIR BACK IN LATER TUESDAY SO HAVE KEPT MAINLY SNOW.

SYSTEM EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY FAST MOVING
CLIPPER SYSTEM WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL DELIVER ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW
SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF COLD AIR. HEIGHTS ALOFT THEN
BEGIN TO RISE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH STRONG WARM
ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW HAS DROPPED VSBY TO MVFR OR BELOW FOR A TIME AT KMGW AND
KLBE AS A SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC. SNOW SHOWERS
ALSO WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT...WITH MVFR TO
IFR THIS EVENING WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OVER
25KTS AND TURNING NORTHWEST WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SCATTERED RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR OHZ039-048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ007>009.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR WVZ003-004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ001-002-021-509>514.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     WVZ512>514.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 122123
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
423 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE PIVOTING ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING SNOW CHANCES IN THE RIDGES AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT
PASSAGE PROGGED FOR THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. BOTH HI RES AND LONGER
RANGE MODEL SOUNDINGS IN BUFKIT SUGGEST A PERIOD WHERE DEEP
MOISTURE...IN A LAYER FROM ABOUT 600MB TO 850MB...WILL BE WELL
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT EFFICIENT
SNOWFALL FOR A PERIOD...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ANTICIPATED
WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT IN UPSLOPE SNOW UNTIL THE WHOLE BOUNDARY
LAYER FALLS WELL BELOW THE GROWTH ZONE. WITH THIS IN MIND...A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE RIDGES OF PRESTON
TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE WITH THE TIMING
OF THE SNOW SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL SQUALLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
PROGGED FOR PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE LINE TO BE INTO EASTERN
OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PA BY 00Z AND PITTSBURGH BY 03Z. VARIOUS
RUNS OF THE HRRR AND TO A LESSER DEGREE OTHER SNOW SQUALLS PROGS SUGGEST
THAT THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKENING AS THE LINE COMES ACROSS.
GENERALLY ANTICIPATE A HALF TO AN INCH OF SNOW...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
AND PROVIDE FOR A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AREAWIDE UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY WITH MAXIMUM WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER APPROACHING 25
TO 35KTS. THIS...ADDED TO TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES WELL BELOW ZERO. THIS
SUPPORTS THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THAT WAS ISSUED. 40MPH WIND
GUSTS OVERNIGHT IN THE RIDGES WILL ALLOW VALUES TO GET VERY CLOSE
TO WARNING CRITERIA BUT AT THIS POINT...THE WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO AN ADVISORY WITH SOME -25 VALUES POSSIBLE IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN OF TUCKER COUNTY.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SEVERAL DUAL-LAKE SNOW BANDS. THE LATEST
ITERATION OF MODELS HAS THE MORE PROMINENT BAND SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
SOUTH FROM LAST NIGHT SO WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE ACTUAL PLACEMENT
OF SNOW BANDS...HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH
FOR VENANGO COUNTY TO AN ADVISORY FOR MERCER...VENANGO...AND
FOREST COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL LAKE PLUMES MAY SUPPORT SNOW BEYOND
THESE ADVISORIES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY
IN THEIR PLACEMENT...NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES WERE ADDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AND SHIFT
NORTHWARD AS A SURFACE RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD OVERHEAD FOR
SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO BACK OFF...WITH WIND
CHILL CONCERNS DIMINISHING IN OHIO. HOWEVER...WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE AND LIGHT WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL CLOSE TO OR BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...SO ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN AS IS FOR THE REST
OF THE CWA UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A FEW
DEGREES ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SCATTERING
OF THE CLOUDS. TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
BOTH PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE
MONDAY. BY LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS STILL DIFFER
ON EXACT TRACK BUT SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...BUT ALSO POTENTIAL FOR A MIX WITH
RAIN OR ALL RAIN WHERE BETTER QPF IS FORECAST. FOR NOW HAVE NOT
STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ALTHOUGH EVEN THE WARMER ECMWF
WRAPS COLD AIR BACK IN LATER TUESDAY SO HAVE KEPT MAINLY SNOW.

SYSTEM EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY FAST MOVING
CLIPPER SYSTEM WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL DELIVER ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW
SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF COLD AIR. HEIGHTS ALOFT THEN
BEGIN TO RISE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH STRONG WARM
ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW HAS DROPPED VSBY TO MVFR OR BELOW FOR A TIME AT KMGW AND
KLBE AS A SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC. SNOW SHOWERS
ALSO WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT...WITH MVFR TO
IFR THIS EVENING WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OVER
25KTS AND TURNING NORTHWEST WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SCATTERED RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR OHZ039-048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ007>009.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR WVZ003-004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ001-002-021-509>514.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     WVZ512>514.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 122123
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
423 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE PIVOTING ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING SNOW CHANCES IN THE RIDGES AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT
PASSAGE PROGGED FOR THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. BOTH HI RES AND LONGER
RANGE MODEL SOUNDINGS IN BUFKIT SUGGEST A PERIOD WHERE DEEP
MOISTURE...IN A LAYER FROM ABOUT 600MB TO 850MB...WILL BE WELL
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT EFFICIENT
SNOWFALL FOR A PERIOD...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ANTICIPATED
WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT IN UPSLOPE SNOW UNTIL THE WHOLE BOUNDARY
LAYER FALLS WELL BELOW THE GROWTH ZONE. WITH THIS IN MIND...A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE RIDGES OF PRESTON
TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE WITH THE TIMING
OF THE SNOW SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL SQUALLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
PROGGED FOR PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE LINE TO BE INTO EASTERN
OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PA BY 00Z AND PITTSBURGH BY 03Z. VARIOUS
RUNS OF THE HRRR AND TO A LESSER DEGREE OTHER SNOW SQUALLS PROGS SUGGEST
THAT THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKENING AS THE LINE COMES ACROSS.
GENERALLY ANTICIPATE A HALF TO AN INCH OF SNOW...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
AND PROVIDE FOR A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AREAWIDE UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY WITH MAXIMUM WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER APPROACHING 25
TO 35KTS. THIS...ADDED TO TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES WELL BELOW ZERO. THIS
SUPPORTS THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THAT WAS ISSUED. 40MPH WIND
GUSTS OVERNIGHT IN THE RIDGES WILL ALLOW VALUES TO GET VERY CLOSE
TO WARNING CRITERIA BUT AT THIS POINT...THE WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO AN ADVISORY WITH SOME -25 VALUES POSSIBLE IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN OF TUCKER COUNTY.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SEVERAL DUAL-LAKE SNOW BANDS. THE LATEST
ITERATION OF MODELS HAS THE MORE PROMINENT BAND SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
SOUTH FROM LAST NIGHT SO WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE ACTUAL PLACEMENT
OF SNOW BANDS...HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH
FOR VENANGO COUNTY TO AN ADVISORY FOR MERCER...VENANGO...AND
FOREST COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL LAKE PLUMES MAY SUPPORT SNOW BEYOND
THESE ADVISORIES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY
IN THEIR PLACEMENT...NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES WERE ADDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AND SHIFT
NORTHWARD AS A SURFACE RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD OVERHEAD FOR
SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO BACK OFF...WITH WIND
CHILL CONCERNS DIMINISHING IN OHIO. HOWEVER...WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE AND LIGHT WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL CLOSE TO OR BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...SO ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN AS IS FOR THE REST
OF THE CWA UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A FEW
DEGREES ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SCATTERING
OF THE CLOUDS. TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
BOTH PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE
MONDAY. BY LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS STILL DIFFER
ON EXACT TRACK BUT SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...BUT ALSO POTENTIAL FOR A MIX WITH
RAIN OR ALL RAIN WHERE BETTER QPF IS FORECAST. FOR NOW HAVE NOT
STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ALTHOUGH EVEN THE WARMER ECMWF
WRAPS COLD AIR BACK IN LATER TUESDAY SO HAVE KEPT MAINLY SNOW.

SYSTEM EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY FAST MOVING
CLIPPER SYSTEM WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL DELIVER ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW
SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF COLD AIR. HEIGHTS ALOFT THEN
BEGIN TO RISE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH STRONG WARM
ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW HAS DROPPED VSBY TO MVFR OR BELOW FOR A TIME AT KMGW AND
KLBE AS A SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC. SNOW SHOWERS
ALSO WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT...WITH MVFR TO
IFR THIS EVENING WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OVER
25KTS AND TURNING NORTHWEST WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SCATTERED RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR OHZ039-048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ007>009.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR WVZ003-004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ001-002-021-509>514.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     WVZ512>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 122123
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
423 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE PIVOTING ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING SNOW CHANCES IN THE RIDGES AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT
PASSAGE PROGGED FOR THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. BOTH HI RES AND LONGER
RANGE MODEL SOUNDINGS IN BUFKIT SUGGEST A PERIOD WHERE DEEP
MOISTURE...IN A LAYER FROM ABOUT 600MB TO 850MB...WILL BE WELL
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT EFFICIENT
SNOWFALL FOR A PERIOD...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ANTICIPATED
WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT IN UPSLOPE SNOW UNTIL THE WHOLE BOUNDARY
LAYER FALLS WELL BELOW THE GROWTH ZONE. WITH THIS IN MIND...A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE RIDGES OF PRESTON
TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE WITH THE TIMING
OF THE SNOW SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL SQUALLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
PROGGED FOR PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE LINE TO BE INTO EASTERN
OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PA BY 00Z AND PITTSBURGH BY 03Z. VARIOUS
RUNS OF THE HRRR AND TO A LESSER DEGREE OTHER SNOW SQUALLS PROGS SUGGEST
THAT THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKENING AS THE LINE COMES ACROSS.
GENERALLY ANTICIPATE A HALF TO AN INCH OF SNOW...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
AND PROVIDE FOR A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AREAWIDE UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY WITH MAXIMUM WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER APPROACHING 25
TO 35KTS. THIS...ADDED TO TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES WELL BELOW ZERO. THIS
SUPPORTS THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THAT WAS ISSUED. 40MPH WIND
GUSTS OVERNIGHT IN THE RIDGES WILL ALLOW VALUES TO GET VERY CLOSE
TO WARNING CRITERIA BUT AT THIS POINT...THE WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO AN ADVISORY WITH SOME -25 VALUES POSSIBLE IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN OF TUCKER COUNTY.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SEVERAL DUAL-LAKE SNOW BANDS. THE LATEST
ITERATION OF MODELS HAS THE MORE PROMINENT BAND SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
SOUTH FROM LAST NIGHT SO WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE ACTUAL PLACEMENT
OF SNOW BANDS...HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH
FOR VENANGO COUNTY TO AN ADVISORY FOR MERCER...VENANGO...AND
FOREST COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL LAKE PLUMES MAY SUPPORT SNOW BEYOND
THESE ADVISORIES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY
IN THEIR PLACEMENT...NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES WERE ADDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AND SHIFT
NORTHWARD AS A SURFACE RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD OVERHEAD FOR
SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO BACK OFF...WITH WIND
CHILL CONCERNS DIMINISHING IN OHIO. HOWEVER...WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE AND LIGHT WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL CLOSE TO OR BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...SO ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN AS IS FOR THE REST
OF THE CWA UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A FEW
DEGREES ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SCATTERING
OF THE CLOUDS. TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
BOTH PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE
MONDAY. BY LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS STILL DIFFER
ON EXACT TRACK BUT SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...BUT ALSO POTENTIAL FOR A MIX WITH
RAIN OR ALL RAIN WHERE BETTER QPF IS FORECAST. FOR NOW HAVE NOT
STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ALTHOUGH EVEN THE WARMER ECMWF
WRAPS COLD AIR BACK IN LATER TUESDAY SO HAVE KEPT MAINLY SNOW.

SYSTEM EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY FAST MOVING
CLIPPER SYSTEM WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL DELIVER ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW
SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF COLD AIR. HEIGHTS ALOFT THEN
BEGIN TO RISE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH STRONG WARM
ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW HAS DROPPED VSBY TO MVFR OR BELOW FOR A TIME AT KMGW AND
KLBE AS A SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC. SNOW SHOWERS
ALSO WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT...WITH MVFR TO
IFR THIS EVENING WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OVER
25KTS AND TURNING NORTHWEST WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SCATTERED RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR OHZ039-048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ007>009.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR WVZ003-004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ001-002-021-509>514.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     WVZ512>514.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 121845
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
145 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATER TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE PIVOTING ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING SNOW CHANCES IN THE RIDGES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE ARCTIC FRONT PASSAGE PROGGED FOR THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
BOTH HI RES AND LONGER RANGE MODEL SOUNDINGS IN BUFKIT SUGGEST A
PERIOD WHERE DEEP MOISTURE...IN A LAYER FROM ABOUT 600MB TO
850MB...WILL BE WELL WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT EFFICIENT SNOWFALL FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE ARCTIC FRONT...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ANTICIPATED WITH
AND BEHIND THE FRONT IN UPSLOPE SNOW UNTIL THE WHOLE BOUNDARY
LAYER FALLS WELL BELOW VALUES FOR EFFICIENT SNOWFALL. WITH THIS IN
MIND...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE RIDGES OF
PRESTON TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE WITH THE TIMING
OF THE SNOW SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL SQUALLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
PROGGED FOR PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE LINE TO BE INTO EASTERN
OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PA BY 00Z AND PITTSBURGH BY 03Z. VARIOUS
RUNS OF THE HRRR AND TO A LESSER DEGREE OTHER SNOW SQUALLS PROGSSUGGEST
THAT THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKENING AS THE LINE COMES ACROSS.
GENERALLY ANTICIPATE A HALF TO AN INCH OF SNOW...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
AND PROVIDE FOR A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AREAWIDE UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY WITH MAXIMUM WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER APPROACHING 25
TO 35KTS. THIS...ADDED TO TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES WELL BELOW ZERO. THIS
SUPPORTS THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THAT WAS ISSUED WITH ADDITIONAL
CONCERN FOR THE RIDGES...AS 40MPH WIND GUSTS MAY SUPPORT AN
UPGRADE OF THE WIND CHILL WATCH THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER ANALYSIS
WILL BE MADE WITH A DECISION LATER IN THIS SHIFT.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SEVERAL GUAL-LAKE SNOW BANDS. THE LATEST
ITERATION OF MODELS HAS THE MORE PROMINENT BAND SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
SOUTH FROM LAST NIGHT SO WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE ACTUAL PLACEMENT
OF SNOW BANDS...HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH
FOR VENANGO COUNTY TO AN ADVISORY FOR MERCER...VENANGO...AND
FOREST COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL LAKE PLUMES MAY SUPPORT SNOW BEYOND
THESE ADVISORIES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY
IN THEIR PLACEMENT...NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES WERE ADDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE WANING LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST AND A SURFACE HIGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES NEAR THE ZERO DEGREE MARK FOR SUNDAY MORNING
LOWS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD IN...WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO. TO THE EAST AND NORTH
HOWEVER...SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL MEAN
WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW -10F. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS COULD SEE WIND
CHILLS AT OR BELOW -25F. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A WIND
CHILL WATCH ACROSS GARRETT AND EASTERN TUCKER COUNTIES.

BRIEF RIDGING SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL FINALLY DISRUPT THE MEAN
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL GRADUALLY KICK
INTO GEAR...BUT WITH SUCH A LOW STARTING POINT...HIGHS WILL STAY
WELL BELOW AVERAGE SUNDAY. THE NEXT WEAK WAVE ARRIVES MONDAY MORNING
SPREADING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW BACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN
INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY WARMER AIR SURGING NORTHWARD
WILL KEEP LOWS FROM BOTTOMING OUT MONDAY MORNING.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DIGGING TROUGH WILL DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MONDAY. STRONG SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL DEEPEN
THE LOW FURTHER AS IT ADVANCES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TAP INTO GULF AND ATLANTIC
MOISTURE...SPREADING IT NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION AND EAST. STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BRING PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT LEAST OUR
EASTERN ZONES BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. STILL QUESTIONS
SURROUNDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE RESULTANT WESTWARD
EDGE OF PRECIPITATION...PRECIPITATION TYPE...AND INTENSITY. AS OF THE
00Z RUNS...GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ACROSS THE MODEL
SUITE...BUT ALL HAVE NUDGED THE SURFACE LOW WEST OF THEIR POSITION
24HRS AGO.

CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR LIKELY SNOW TUESDAY MORNING REACHING WEST
TO THE OHIO RIVER INCLUDING PITTSBURGH. SIGNIFICANT MODEL SPREAD
DOES EXIST FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE VALUES TUESDAY...AND WITH THE
WESTWARD TREND...HAVE BUMPED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES. THIS WOULD
FAVOR AT LEAST SOME MIX OF RAIN/SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD
ULTIMATELY CUT INTO THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY DROP BELOW AVERAGE
THURSDAY...BEFORE REBOUNDING WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION BY THE WEEKEND.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMMENCE BY EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH A BURST OF SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG IT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR WILL BE WITH LOW
PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR OHZ039-048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ007>009.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR WVZ003-004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ001-002-021-509>513.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR WVZ512>514.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR WVZ514.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 121845
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
145 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATER TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE PIVOTING ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING SNOW CHANCES IN THE RIDGES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE ARCTIC FRONT PASSAGE PROGGED FOR THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
BOTH HI RES AND LONGER RANGE MODEL SOUNDINGS IN BUFKIT SUGGEST A
PERIOD WHERE DEEP MOISTURE...IN A LAYER FROM ABOUT 600MB TO
850MB...WILL BE WELL WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT EFFICIENT SNOWFALL FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE ARCTIC FRONT...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ANTICIPATED WITH
AND BEHIND THE FRONT IN UPSLOPE SNOW UNTIL THE WHOLE BOUNDARY
LAYER FALLS WELL BELOW VALUES FOR EFFICIENT SNOWFALL. WITH THIS IN
MIND...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE RIDGES OF
PRESTON TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE WITH THE TIMING
OF THE SNOW SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL SQUALLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
PROGGED FOR PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE LINE TO BE INTO EASTERN
OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PA BY 00Z AND PITTSBURGH BY 03Z. VARIOUS
RUNS OF THE HRRR AND TO A LESSER DEGREE OTHER SNOW SQUALLS PROGSSUGGEST
THAT THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKENING AS THE LINE COMES ACROSS.
GENERALLY ANTICIPATE A HALF TO AN INCH OF SNOW...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
AND PROVIDE FOR A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AREAWIDE UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY WITH MAXIMUM WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER APPROACHING 25
TO 35KTS. THIS...ADDED TO TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES WELL BELOW ZERO. THIS
SUPPORTS THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THAT WAS ISSUED WITH ADDITIONAL
CONCERN FOR THE RIDGES...AS 40MPH WIND GUSTS MAY SUPPORT AN
UPGRADE OF THE WIND CHILL WATCH THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER ANALYSIS
WILL BE MADE WITH A DECISION LATER IN THIS SHIFT.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SEVERAL GUAL-LAKE SNOW BANDS. THE LATEST
ITERATION OF MODELS HAS THE MORE PROMINENT BAND SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
SOUTH FROM LAST NIGHT SO WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE ACTUAL PLACEMENT
OF SNOW BANDS...HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH
FOR VENANGO COUNTY TO AN ADVISORY FOR MERCER...VENANGO...AND
FOREST COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL LAKE PLUMES MAY SUPPORT SNOW BEYOND
THESE ADVISORIES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY
IN THEIR PLACEMENT...NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES WERE ADDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE WANING LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST AND A SURFACE HIGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES NEAR THE ZERO DEGREE MARK FOR SUNDAY MORNING
LOWS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD IN...WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO. TO THE EAST AND NORTH
HOWEVER...SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL MEAN
WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW -10F. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS COULD SEE WIND
CHILLS AT OR BELOW -25F. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A WIND
CHILL WATCH ACROSS GARRETT AND EASTERN TUCKER COUNTIES.

BRIEF RIDGING SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL FINALLY DISRUPT THE MEAN
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL GRADUALLY KICK
INTO GEAR...BUT WITH SUCH A LOW STARTING POINT...HIGHS WILL STAY
WELL BELOW AVERAGE SUNDAY. THE NEXT WEAK WAVE ARRIVES MONDAY MORNING
SPREADING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW BACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN
INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY WARMER AIR SURGING NORTHWARD
WILL KEEP LOWS FROM BOTTOMING OUT MONDAY MORNING.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DIGGING TROUGH WILL DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MONDAY. STRONG SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL DEEPEN
THE LOW FURTHER AS IT ADVANCES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TAP INTO GULF AND ATLANTIC
MOISTURE...SPREADING IT NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION AND EAST. STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BRING PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT LEAST OUR
EASTERN ZONES BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. STILL QUESTIONS
SURROUNDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE RESULTANT WESTWARD
EDGE OF PRECIPITATION...PRECIPITATION TYPE...AND INTENSITY. AS OF THE
00Z RUNS...GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ACROSS THE MODEL
SUITE...BUT ALL HAVE NUDGED THE SURFACE LOW WEST OF THEIR POSITION
24HRS AGO.

CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR LIKELY SNOW TUESDAY MORNING REACHING WEST
TO THE OHIO RIVER INCLUDING PITTSBURGH. SIGNIFICANT MODEL SPREAD
DOES EXIST FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE VALUES TUESDAY...AND WITH THE
WESTWARD TREND...HAVE BUMPED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES. THIS WOULD
FAVOR AT LEAST SOME MIX OF RAIN/SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD
ULTIMATELY CUT INTO THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY DROP BELOW AVERAGE
THURSDAY...BEFORE REBOUNDING WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION BY THE WEEKEND.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMMENCE BY EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH A BURST OF SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG IT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR WILL BE WITH LOW
PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR OHZ039-048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ007>009.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR WVZ003-004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ001-002-021-509>513.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR WVZ512>514.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR WVZ514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 121845
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
145 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATER TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE PIVOTING ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING SNOW CHANCES IN THE RIDGES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE ARCTIC FRONT PASSAGE PROGGED FOR THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
BOTH HI RES AND LONGER RANGE MODEL SOUNDINGS IN BUFKIT SUGGEST A
PERIOD WHERE DEEP MOISTURE...IN A LAYER FROM ABOUT 600MB TO
850MB...WILL BE WELL WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT EFFICIENT SNOWFALL FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE ARCTIC FRONT...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ANTICIPATED WITH
AND BEHIND THE FRONT IN UPSLOPE SNOW UNTIL THE WHOLE BOUNDARY
LAYER FALLS WELL BELOW VALUES FOR EFFICIENT SNOWFALL. WITH THIS IN
MIND...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE RIDGES OF
PRESTON TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE WITH THE TIMING
OF THE SNOW SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL SQUALLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
PROGGED FOR PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE LINE TO BE INTO EASTERN
OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PA BY 00Z AND PITTSBURGH BY 03Z. VARIOUS
RUNS OF THE HRRR AND TO A LESSER DEGREE OTHER SNOW SQUALLS PROGSSUGGEST
THAT THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKENING AS THE LINE COMES ACROSS.
GENERALLY ANTICIPATE A HALF TO AN INCH OF SNOW...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
AND PROVIDE FOR A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AREAWIDE UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY WITH MAXIMUM WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER APPROACHING 25
TO 35KTS. THIS...ADDED TO TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES WELL BELOW ZERO. THIS
SUPPORTS THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THAT WAS ISSUED WITH ADDITIONAL
CONCERN FOR THE RIDGES...AS 40MPH WIND GUSTS MAY SUPPORT AN
UPGRADE OF THE WIND CHILL WATCH THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER ANALYSIS
WILL BE MADE WITH A DECISION LATER IN THIS SHIFT.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SEVERAL GUAL-LAKE SNOW BANDS. THE LATEST
ITERATION OF MODELS HAS THE MORE PROMINENT BAND SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
SOUTH FROM LAST NIGHT SO WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE ACTUAL PLACEMENT
OF SNOW BANDS...HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH
FOR VENANGO COUNTY TO AN ADVISORY FOR MERCER...VENANGO...AND
FOREST COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL LAKE PLUMES MAY SUPPORT SNOW BEYOND
THESE ADVISORIES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY
IN THEIR PLACEMENT...NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES WERE ADDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE WANING LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST AND A SURFACE HIGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES NEAR THE ZERO DEGREE MARK FOR SUNDAY MORNING
LOWS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD IN...WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO. TO THE EAST AND NORTH
HOWEVER...SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL MEAN
WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW -10F. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS COULD SEE WIND
CHILLS AT OR BELOW -25F. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A WIND
CHILL WATCH ACROSS GARRETT AND EASTERN TUCKER COUNTIES.

BRIEF RIDGING SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL FINALLY DISRUPT THE MEAN
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL GRADUALLY KICK
INTO GEAR...BUT WITH SUCH A LOW STARTING POINT...HIGHS WILL STAY
WELL BELOW AVERAGE SUNDAY. THE NEXT WEAK WAVE ARRIVES MONDAY MORNING
SPREADING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW BACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN
INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY WARMER AIR SURGING NORTHWARD
WILL KEEP LOWS FROM BOTTOMING OUT MONDAY MORNING.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DIGGING TROUGH WILL DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MONDAY. STRONG SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL DEEPEN
THE LOW FURTHER AS IT ADVANCES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TAP INTO GULF AND ATLANTIC
MOISTURE...SPREADING IT NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION AND EAST. STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BRING PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT LEAST OUR
EASTERN ZONES BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. STILL QUESTIONS
SURROUNDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE RESULTANT WESTWARD
EDGE OF PRECIPITATION...PRECIPITATION TYPE...AND INTENSITY. AS OF THE
00Z RUNS...GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ACROSS THE MODEL
SUITE...BUT ALL HAVE NUDGED THE SURFACE LOW WEST OF THEIR POSITION
24HRS AGO.

CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR LIKELY SNOW TUESDAY MORNING REACHING WEST
TO THE OHIO RIVER INCLUDING PITTSBURGH. SIGNIFICANT MODEL SPREAD
DOES EXIST FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE VALUES TUESDAY...AND WITH THE
WESTWARD TREND...HAVE BUMPED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES. THIS WOULD
FAVOR AT LEAST SOME MIX OF RAIN/SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD
ULTIMATELY CUT INTO THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY DROP BELOW AVERAGE
THURSDAY...BEFORE REBOUNDING WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION BY THE WEEKEND.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMMENCE BY EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH A BURST OF SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG IT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR WILL BE WITH LOW
PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR OHZ039-048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ007>009.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR WVZ003-004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ001-002-021-509>513.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR WVZ512>514.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR WVZ514.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 121417
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
917 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SNOW SNOW TO THE AREA LATER TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORNING ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPERATURES AS THERE IS ENOUGH CLOUD
COVER AND WARM ADVECTION FOR VALUES TO RISE QUICKER THAN FORECAST.
DESPITE RETURNS ON THE RADAR...THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING SHOWS DRY
AIR SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

PREVIOUS...
MODEL AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT LOOKS GOOD...WITH IT
APPROACHING THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA TOWARD 00Z...AND PITTSBURGH
AROUND 03Z OR SO. THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER IS STILL KEYING ON
THIS BOUNDARY...AND HI- RES REFLECTIVITIES ARE RATHER IMPRESSIVE
AS IT SLICES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...AS IT STRAY FARTHER SOUTH AND AWAY FROM A BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE SOURCE..AKA LAKE ERIE...IT GETS FAR LESS IMPRESSIVE.
THUS...ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE AN INCH OR SO WERE GENERALLY RELEGATED
NORTH OF METRO PITTSBURGH.

BEHIND THE FRONT...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RISING INVERSION
HEIGHTS DUE TO RAPID COOLING AT 700 MB SHOULD ALLOW FOR LAKE
EFFECT BANDS TO PROPAGATE INLAND FAIRLY EFFICIENTLY. HI-RES
ARW/HRRR/NAM/GFS CONSENSUS DOES FAVOR A MULTI-LAKE FETCH
DEVELOPING ONE DOMINANT BAND DOWN THE LENGTH OF LAKE HURON AND
ACROSS LAKE ERIE INTO NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE CONSENSUS OF THE POSITIONS FAVORS
VENANGO COUNTY IN OUR AREA...THUS A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH WAS
ISSUED. THIS IS JUST A WATCH AND LATER MODEL RUNS MAY MEANDER THIS
BAND ONE WAY OR ANOTHER...SO FUTURE FORECASTS SHOULD BE MONITORED.

IN ADDITION TO PURE LAKE EFFECT...FAIRLY EFFICIENT UPSLOPE WILL
LIKELY COME INTO THE RIDGES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS WELL.
SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE OVERCOME BY EFFICIENT
MICROPHYSICS...HOWEVER EVEN WITH EFFICIENT RATIOS...A LACK OF QPF
SEEMS TO FAIL TO ALLOW MOST AREAS TO SURPASS ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
A WIDESPREAD BASIS. THUS...WHILE ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ALMOST
GUARANTEED...SIGNIFICANT SNOW SEEMS RATHER UNLIKELY.

ONE ADDITIONAL EVENTUALITY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SEEMS TO
BE A FAIRLY DEEP MIXING PROFILE. JUST OFF THE SURFACE...ROUGHLY
25-35 KTS OF MOMENTUM LOOKS TO BE PRESENT. THIS COMBINED WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING TOWARD 0F OVERNIGHT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR ALL AREAS TO SEE WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW
-10F...WHICH NECESSITATED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...ADDITIONAL MOMENTUM AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES MAY ALLOW FOR SOME AREAS TO DROP BELOW -25F. BECAUSE
OF ONLY MODEST CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD -25F NUMBERS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...A WIND CHILL WATCH WAS ISSUED. FURTHER SHIFTS CAN REFINE
WHETHER THIS SHOULD BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING OR ADVISORY. EITHER
WAY...VERY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN THE RIDGES WELL
BEYOND THE NEAR TERM. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE WANING LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST AND A SURFACE HIGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES NEAR THE ZERO DEGREE MARK FOR SUNDAY MORNING
LOWS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD IN...WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO. TO THE EAST AND NORTH
HOWEVER...SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL MEAN
WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW -10F. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS COULD SEE WIND
CHILLS AT OR BELOW -25F. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A WIND
CHILL WATCH ACROSS GARRETT AND EASTERN TUCKER COUNTIES.

BRIEF RIDGING SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL FINALLY DISRUPT THE MEAN
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL GRADUALLY KICK
INTO GEAR...BUT WITH SUCH A LOW STARTING POINT...HIGHS WILL STAY
WELL BELOW AVERAGE SUNDAY. THE NEXT WEAK WAVE ARRIVES MONDAY MORNING
SPREADING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW BACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN
INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY WARMER AIR SURGING NORTHWARD
WILL KEEP LOWS FROM BOTTOMING OUT MONDAY MORNING.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DIGGING TROUGH WILL DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MONDAY. STRONG SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL DEEPEN
THE LOW FURTHER AS IT ADVANCES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TAP INTO GULF AND ATLANTIC
MOISTURE...SPREADING IT NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION AND EAST. STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BRING PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT LEAST OUR
EASTERN ZONES BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. STILL QUESTIONS
SURROUNDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE RESULTANT WESTWARD
EDGE OF PRECIPITATION...PRECIPITATION TYPE...AND INTENSITY. AS OF THE
00Z RUNS...GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ACROSS THE MODEL
SUITE...BUT ALL HAVE NUDGED THE SURFACE LOW WEST OF THEIR POSITION
24HRS AGO.

CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR LIKELY SNOW TUESDAY MORNING REACHING WEST
TO THE OHIO RIVER INCLUDING PITTSBURGH. SIGNIFICANT MODEL SPREAD
DOES EXIST FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE VALUES TUESDAY...AND WITH THE
WESTWARD TREND...HAVE BUMPED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES. THIS WOULD
FAVOR AT LEAST SOME MIX OF RAIN/SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD
ULTIMATELY CUT INTO THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY DROP BELOW AVERAGE
THURSDAY...BEFORE REBOUNDING WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION BY THE WEEKEND.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMMENCE BY EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH A BURST OF SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG IT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR WILL BE WITH LOW
PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR OHZ039-048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH
     SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR PAZ008.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR WVZ003-004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ001-002-021-509>513.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ514.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 121417
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
917 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SNOW SNOW TO THE AREA LATER TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORNING ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPERATURES AS THERE IS ENOUGH CLOUD
COVER AND WARM ADVECTION FOR VALUES TO RISE QUICKER THAN FORECAST.
DESPITE RETURNS ON THE RADAR...THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING SHOWS DRY
AIR SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

PREVIOUS...
MODEL AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT LOOKS GOOD...WITH IT
APPROACHING THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA TOWARD 00Z...AND PITTSBURGH
AROUND 03Z OR SO. THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER IS STILL KEYING ON
THIS BOUNDARY...AND HI- RES REFLECTIVITIES ARE RATHER IMPRESSIVE
AS IT SLICES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...AS IT STRAY FARTHER SOUTH AND AWAY FROM A BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE SOURCE..AKA LAKE ERIE...IT GETS FAR LESS IMPRESSIVE.
THUS...ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE AN INCH OR SO WERE GENERALLY RELEGATED
NORTH OF METRO PITTSBURGH.

BEHIND THE FRONT...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RISING INVERSION
HEIGHTS DUE TO RAPID COOLING AT 700 MB SHOULD ALLOW FOR LAKE
EFFECT BANDS TO PROPAGATE INLAND FAIRLY EFFICIENTLY. HI-RES
ARW/HRRR/NAM/GFS CONSENSUS DOES FAVOR A MULTI-LAKE FETCH
DEVELOPING ONE DOMINANT BAND DOWN THE LENGTH OF LAKE HURON AND
ACROSS LAKE ERIE INTO NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE CONSENSUS OF THE POSITIONS FAVORS
VENANGO COUNTY IN OUR AREA...THUS A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH WAS
ISSUED. THIS IS JUST A WATCH AND LATER MODEL RUNS MAY MEANDER THIS
BAND ONE WAY OR ANOTHER...SO FUTURE FORECASTS SHOULD BE MONITORED.

IN ADDITION TO PURE LAKE EFFECT...FAIRLY EFFICIENT UPSLOPE WILL
LIKELY COME INTO THE RIDGES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS WELL.
SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE OVERCOME BY EFFICIENT
MICROPHYSICS...HOWEVER EVEN WITH EFFICIENT RATIOS...A LACK OF QPF
SEEMS TO FAIL TO ALLOW MOST AREAS TO SURPASS ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
A WIDESPREAD BASIS. THUS...WHILE ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ALMOST
GUARANTEED...SIGNIFICANT SNOW SEEMS RATHER UNLIKELY.

ONE ADDITIONAL EVENTUALITY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SEEMS TO
BE A FAIRLY DEEP MIXING PROFILE. JUST OFF THE SURFACE...ROUGHLY
25-35 KTS OF MOMENTUM LOOKS TO BE PRESENT. THIS COMBINED WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING TOWARD 0F OVERNIGHT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR ALL AREAS TO SEE WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW
-10F...WHICH NECESSITATED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...ADDITIONAL MOMENTUM AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES MAY ALLOW FOR SOME AREAS TO DROP BELOW -25F. BECAUSE
OF ONLY MODEST CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD -25F NUMBERS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...A WIND CHILL WATCH WAS ISSUED. FURTHER SHIFTS CAN REFINE
WHETHER THIS SHOULD BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING OR ADVISORY. EITHER
WAY...VERY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN THE RIDGES WELL
BEYOND THE NEAR TERM. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE WANING LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST AND A SURFACE HIGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES NEAR THE ZERO DEGREE MARK FOR SUNDAY MORNING
LOWS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD IN...WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO. TO THE EAST AND NORTH
HOWEVER...SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL MEAN
WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW -10F. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS COULD SEE WIND
CHILLS AT OR BELOW -25F. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A WIND
CHILL WATCH ACROSS GARRETT AND EASTERN TUCKER COUNTIES.

BRIEF RIDGING SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL FINALLY DISRUPT THE MEAN
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL GRADUALLY KICK
INTO GEAR...BUT WITH SUCH A LOW STARTING POINT...HIGHS WILL STAY
WELL BELOW AVERAGE SUNDAY. THE NEXT WEAK WAVE ARRIVES MONDAY MORNING
SPREADING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW BACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN
INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY WARMER AIR SURGING NORTHWARD
WILL KEEP LOWS FROM BOTTOMING OUT MONDAY MORNING.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DIGGING TROUGH WILL DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MONDAY. STRONG SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL DEEPEN
THE LOW FURTHER AS IT ADVANCES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TAP INTO GULF AND ATLANTIC
MOISTURE...SPREADING IT NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION AND EAST. STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BRING PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT LEAST OUR
EASTERN ZONES BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. STILL QUESTIONS
SURROUNDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE RESULTANT WESTWARD
EDGE OF PRECIPITATION...PRECIPITATION TYPE...AND INTENSITY. AS OF THE
00Z RUNS...GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ACROSS THE MODEL
SUITE...BUT ALL HAVE NUDGED THE SURFACE LOW WEST OF THEIR POSITION
24HRS AGO.

CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR LIKELY SNOW TUESDAY MORNING REACHING WEST
TO THE OHIO RIVER INCLUDING PITTSBURGH. SIGNIFICANT MODEL SPREAD
DOES EXIST FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE VALUES TUESDAY...AND WITH THE
WESTWARD TREND...HAVE BUMPED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES. THIS WOULD
FAVOR AT LEAST SOME MIX OF RAIN/SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD
ULTIMATELY CUT INTO THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY DROP BELOW AVERAGE
THURSDAY...BEFORE REBOUNDING WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION BY THE WEEKEND.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMMENCE BY EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH A BURST OF SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG IT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR WILL BE WITH LOW
PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR OHZ039-048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH
     SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR PAZ008.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR WVZ003-004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ001-002-021-509>513.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 121417
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
917 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SNOW SNOW TO THE AREA LATER TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORNING ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPERATURES AS THERE IS ENOUGH CLOUD
COVER AND WARM ADVECTION FOR VALUES TO RISE QUICKER THAN FORECAST.
DESPITE RETURNS ON THE RADAR...THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING SHOWS DRY
AIR SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

PREVIOUS...
MODEL AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT LOOKS GOOD...WITH IT
APPROACHING THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA TOWARD 00Z...AND PITTSBURGH
AROUND 03Z OR SO. THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER IS STILL KEYING ON
THIS BOUNDARY...AND HI- RES REFLECTIVITIES ARE RATHER IMPRESSIVE
AS IT SLICES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...AS IT STRAY FARTHER SOUTH AND AWAY FROM A BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE SOURCE..AKA LAKE ERIE...IT GETS FAR LESS IMPRESSIVE.
THUS...ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE AN INCH OR SO WERE GENERALLY RELEGATED
NORTH OF METRO PITTSBURGH.

BEHIND THE FRONT...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RISING INVERSION
HEIGHTS DUE TO RAPID COOLING AT 700 MB SHOULD ALLOW FOR LAKE
EFFECT BANDS TO PROPAGATE INLAND FAIRLY EFFICIENTLY. HI-RES
ARW/HRRR/NAM/GFS CONSENSUS DOES FAVOR A MULTI-LAKE FETCH
DEVELOPING ONE DOMINANT BAND DOWN THE LENGTH OF LAKE HURON AND
ACROSS LAKE ERIE INTO NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE CONSENSUS OF THE POSITIONS FAVORS
VENANGO COUNTY IN OUR AREA...THUS A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH WAS
ISSUED. THIS IS JUST A WATCH AND LATER MODEL RUNS MAY MEANDER THIS
BAND ONE WAY OR ANOTHER...SO FUTURE FORECASTS SHOULD BE MONITORED.

IN ADDITION TO PURE LAKE EFFECT...FAIRLY EFFICIENT UPSLOPE WILL
LIKELY COME INTO THE RIDGES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS WELL.
SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE OVERCOME BY EFFICIENT
MICROPHYSICS...HOWEVER EVEN WITH EFFICIENT RATIOS...A LACK OF QPF
SEEMS TO FAIL TO ALLOW MOST AREAS TO SURPASS ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
A WIDESPREAD BASIS. THUS...WHILE ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ALMOST
GUARANTEED...SIGNIFICANT SNOW SEEMS RATHER UNLIKELY.

ONE ADDITIONAL EVENTUALITY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SEEMS TO
BE A FAIRLY DEEP MIXING PROFILE. JUST OFF THE SURFACE...ROUGHLY
25-35 KTS OF MOMENTUM LOOKS TO BE PRESENT. THIS COMBINED WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING TOWARD 0F OVERNIGHT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR ALL AREAS TO SEE WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW
-10F...WHICH NECESSITATED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...ADDITIONAL MOMENTUM AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES MAY ALLOW FOR SOME AREAS TO DROP BELOW -25F. BECAUSE
OF ONLY MODEST CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD -25F NUMBERS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...A WIND CHILL WATCH WAS ISSUED. FURTHER SHIFTS CAN REFINE
WHETHER THIS SHOULD BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING OR ADVISORY. EITHER
WAY...VERY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN THE RIDGES WELL
BEYOND THE NEAR TERM. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE WANING LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST AND A SURFACE HIGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES NEAR THE ZERO DEGREE MARK FOR SUNDAY MORNING
LOWS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD IN...WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO. TO THE EAST AND NORTH
HOWEVER...SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL MEAN
WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW -10F. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS COULD SEE WIND
CHILLS AT OR BELOW -25F. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A WIND
CHILL WATCH ACROSS GARRETT AND EASTERN TUCKER COUNTIES.

BRIEF RIDGING SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL FINALLY DISRUPT THE MEAN
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL GRADUALLY KICK
INTO GEAR...BUT WITH SUCH A LOW STARTING POINT...HIGHS WILL STAY
WELL BELOW AVERAGE SUNDAY. THE NEXT WEAK WAVE ARRIVES MONDAY MORNING
SPREADING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW BACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN
INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY WARMER AIR SURGING NORTHWARD
WILL KEEP LOWS FROM BOTTOMING OUT MONDAY MORNING.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DIGGING TROUGH WILL DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MONDAY. STRONG SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL DEEPEN
THE LOW FURTHER AS IT ADVANCES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TAP INTO GULF AND ATLANTIC
MOISTURE...SPREADING IT NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION AND EAST. STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BRING PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT LEAST OUR
EASTERN ZONES BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. STILL QUESTIONS
SURROUNDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE RESULTANT WESTWARD
EDGE OF PRECIPITATION...PRECIPITATION TYPE...AND INTENSITY. AS OF THE
00Z RUNS...GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ACROSS THE MODEL
SUITE...BUT ALL HAVE NUDGED THE SURFACE LOW WEST OF THEIR POSITION
24HRS AGO.

CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR LIKELY SNOW TUESDAY MORNING REACHING WEST
TO THE OHIO RIVER INCLUDING PITTSBURGH. SIGNIFICANT MODEL SPREAD
DOES EXIST FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE VALUES TUESDAY...AND WITH THE
WESTWARD TREND...HAVE BUMPED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES. THIS WOULD
FAVOR AT LEAST SOME MIX OF RAIN/SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD
ULTIMATELY CUT INTO THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY DROP BELOW AVERAGE
THURSDAY...BEFORE REBOUNDING WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION BY THE WEEKEND.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMMENCE BY EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH A BURST OF SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG IT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR WILL BE WITH LOW
PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR OHZ039-048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH
     SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR PAZ008.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR WVZ003-004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ001-002-021-509>513.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ514.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 121050
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
550 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SNOW SNOW TO THE AREA LATER TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
OVERNIGHT DECOUPLING KEEPING WARM ADVECTION TO OUR WEST FROM
GENERALLY IMPACTING SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN RELEGATED TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH
MEANS A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY TODAY. THAT SAID...280-290K
LAYER ASCENT WILL INCREASE SLOWLY GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
GFS AND NAM CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS IN THE LAYER DROPPING
BELOW 10 MB SHORTLY AROUND 18Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. AS
SUCH...WHILE A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY KEEP MUCH MORE THAN
VERY LIGHT SNOW FROM FALLING OUT...GENERALLY CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT
SNOW WERE MAINTAINED EXCLUSIVELY IN THE AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE WARM ADVECTION WITH GOOD HI-RES AND
NAM/GFS MODEL AGREEMENT ON TIMING IT INTO THE NORTHERN REACHES OF
THE CWA TOWARD 00Z...DOWN TOWARD PITTSBURGH AROUND 03Z OR SO. THE
SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER IS STILL KEYING ON THIS BOUNDARY...AND HI-
RES REFLECTIVITIES ARE RATHER IMPRESSIVE AS IT SLICES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...AS IT STRAY FARTHER SOUTH
AND AWAY FROM A BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SOURCE..AKA LAKE ERIE...IT
GETS FAR LESS IMPRESSIVE. THUS...ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE AN INCH OR SO
WERE GENERALLY RELEGATED NORTH OF METRO PITTSBURGH.

BEHIND THE FRONT...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RISING INVERSION
HEIGHTS DUE TO RAPID COOLING AT 700 MB SHOULD ALLOW FOR LAKE
EFFECT BANDS TO PROPAGATE INLAND FAIRLY EFFICIENTLY. HI-RES
ARW/HRRR/NAM/GFS CONSENSUS DOES FAVOR A MULTI-LAKE FETCH
DEVELOPING ONE DOMINANT BAND DOWN THE LENGTH OF LAKE HURON AND
ACROSS LAKE ERIE INTO NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE CONSENSUS OF THE POSITIONS FAVORS
VENANGO COUNTY IN OUR AREA...THUS A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH WAS
ISSUED. THIS IS JUST A WATCH AND LATER MODEL RUNS MAY MEANDER THIS
BAND ONE WAY OR ANOTHER...SO FUTURE FORECASTS SHOULD BE MONITORED.

IN ADDITION TO PURE LAKE EFFECT...FAIRLY EFFICIENT UPSLOPE WILL
LIKELY COME INTO THE RIDGES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS WELL.
SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE OVERCOME BY EFFICIENT
MICROPHYSICS...HOWEVER EVEN WITH EFFICIENT RATIOS...A LACK OF QPF
SEEMS TO FAIL TO ALLOW MOST AREAS TO SURPASS ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
A WIDESPREAD BASIS. THUS...WHILE ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ALMOST
GUARANTEED...SIGNIFICANT SNOW SEEMS RATHER UNLIKELY.

ONE ADDITIONAL EVENTUALITY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SEEMS TO
BE A FAIRLY DEEP MIXING PROFILE. JUST OFF THE SURFACE...ROUGHLY
25-35 KTS OF MOMENTUM LOOKS TO BE PRESENT. THIS COMBINED WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING TOWARD 0F OVERNIGHT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR ALL AREAS TO SEE WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW
-10F...WHICH NECESSITATED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...ADDITIONAL MOMENTUM AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES MAY ALLOW FOR SOME AREAS TO DROP BELOW -25F. BECAUSE
OF ONLY MODEST CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD -25F NUMBERS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...A WIND CHILL WATCH WAS ISSUED. FURTHER SHIFTS CAN REFINE
WHETHER THIS SHOULD BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING OR ADVISORY. EITHER
WAY...VERY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN THE RIDGES WELL
BEYOND THE NEAR TERM. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE WANING LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST AND A SURFACE HIGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES NEAR THE ZERO DEGREE MARK FOR SUNDAY MORNING
LOWS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD IN...WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO. TO THE EAST AND NORTH
HOWEVER...SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL MEAN
WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW -10F. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS COULD SEE WIND
CHILLS AT OR BELOW -25F. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A WIND
CHILL WATCH ACROSS GARRETT AND EASTERN TUCKER COUNTIES.

BRIEF RIDGING SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL FINALLY DISRUPT THE MEAN
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL GRADUALLY KICK
INTO GEAR...BUT WITH SUCH A LOW STARTING POINT...HIGHS WILL STAY
WELL BELOW AVERAGE SUNDAY. THE NEXT WEAK WAVE ARRIVES MONDAY MORNING
SPREADING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW BACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN
INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY WARMER AIR SURGING NORTHWARD
WILL KEEP LOWS FROM BOTTOMING OUT MONDAY MORNING.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DIGGING TROUGH WILL DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MONDAY. STRONG SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL DEEPEN
THE LOW FURTHER AS IT ADVANCES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TAP INTO GULF AND ATLANTIC
MOISTURE...SPREADING IT NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION AND EAST. STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BRING PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT LEAST OUR
EASTERN ZONES BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. STILL QUESTIONS
SURROUNDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE RESULTANT WESTWARD
EDGE OF PRECIPITATION...PRECIPITATION TYPE...AND INTENSITY. AS OF THE
00Z RUNS...GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ACROSS THE MODEL
SUITE...BUT ALL HAVE NUDGED THE SURFACE LOW WEST OF THEIR POSITION
24HRS AGO.

CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR LIKELY SNOW TUESDAY MORNING REACHING WEST
TO THE OHIO RIVER INCLUDING PITTSBURGH. SIGNIFICANT MODEL SPREAD
DOES EXIST FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE VALUES TUESDAY...AND WITH THE
WESTWARD TREND...HAVE BUMPED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES. THIS WOULD
FAVOR AT LEAST SOME MIX OF RAIN/SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD
ULTIMATELY CUT INTO THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY DROP BELOW AVERAGE
THURSDAY...BEFORE REBOUNDING WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION BY THE WEEKEND.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMMENCE BY EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH A BURST OF SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG IT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR WILL BE WITH LOW
PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR OHZ039-048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PAZ008.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR WVZ003-004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ001-002-021-509>513.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ514.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 121050
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
550 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SNOW SNOW TO THE AREA LATER TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
OVERNIGHT DECOUPLING KEEPING WARM ADVECTION TO OUR WEST FROM
GENERALLY IMPACTING SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN RELEGATED TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH
MEANS A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY TODAY. THAT SAID...280-290K
LAYER ASCENT WILL INCREASE SLOWLY GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
GFS AND NAM CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS IN THE LAYER DROPPING
BELOW 10 MB SHORTLY AROUND 18Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. AS
SUCH...WHILE A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY KEEP MUCH MORE THAN
VERY LIGHT SNOW FROM FALLING OUT...GENERALLY CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT
SNOW WERE MAINTAINED EXCLUSIVELY IN THE AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE WARM ADVECTION WITH GOOD HI-RES AND
NAM/GFS MODEL AGREEMENT ON TIMING IT INTO THE NORTHERN REACHES OF
THE CWA TOWARD 00Z...DOWN TOWARD PITTSBURGH AROUND 03Z OR SO. THE
SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER IS STILL KEYING ON THIS BOUNDARY...AND HI-
RES REFLECTIVITIES ARE RATHER IMPRESSIVE AS IT SLICES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...AS IT STRAY FARTHER SOUTH
AND AWAY FROM A BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SOURCE..AKA LAKE ERIE...IT
GETS FAR LESS IMPRESSIVE. THUS...ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE AN INCH OR SO
WERE GENERALLY RELEGATED NORTH OF METRO PITTSBURGH.

BEHIND THE FRONT...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RISING INVERSION
HEIGHTS DUE TO RAPID COOLING AT 700 MB SHOULD ALLOW FOR LAKE
EFFECT BANDS TO PROPAGATE INLAND FAIRLY EFFICIENTLY. HI-RES
ARW/HRRR/NAM/GFS CONSENSUS DOES FAVOR A MULTI-LAKE FETCH
DEVELOPING ONE DOMINANT BAND DOWN THE LENGTH OF LAKE HURON AND
ACROSS LAKE ERIE INTO NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE CONSENSUS OF THE POSITIONS FAVORS
VENANGO COUNTY IN OUR AREA...THUS A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH WAS
ISSUED. THIS IS JUST A WATCH AND LATER MODEL RUNS MAY MEANDER THIS
BAND ONE WAY OR ANOTHER...SO FUTURE FORECASTS SHOULD BE MONITORED.

IN ADDITION TO PURE LAKE EFFECT...FAIRLY EFFICIENT UPSLOPE WILL
LIKELY COME INTO THE RIDGES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS WELL.
SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE OVERCOME BY EFFICIENT
MICROPHYSICS...HOWEVER EVEN WITH EFFICIENT RATIOS...A LACK OF QPF
SEEMS TO FAIL TO ALLOW MOST AREAS TO SURPASS ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
A WIDESPREAD BASIS. THUS...WHILE ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ALMOST
GUARANTEED...SIGNIFICANT SNOW SEEMS RATHER UNLIKELY.

ONE ADDITIONAL EVENTUALITY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SEEMS TO
BE A FAIRLY DEEP MIXING PROFILE. JUST OFF THE SURFACE...ROUGHLY
25-35 KTS OF MOMENTUM LOOKS TO BE PRESENT. THIS COMBINED WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING TOWARD 0F OVERNIGHT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR ALL AREAS TO SEE WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW
-10F...WHICH NECESSITATED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...ADDITIONAL MOMENTUM AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES MAY ALLOW FOR SOME AREAS TO DROP BELOW -25F. BECAUSE
OF ONLY MODEST CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD -25F NUMBERS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...A WIND CHILL WATCH WAS ISSUED. FURTHER SHIFTS CAN REFINE
WHETHER THIS SHOULD BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING OR ADVISORY. EITHER
WAY...VERY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN THE RIDGES WELL
BEYOND THE NEAR TERM. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE WANING LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST AND A SURFACE HIGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES NEAR THE ZERO DEGREE MARK FOR SUNDAY MORNING
LOWS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD IN...WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO. TO THE EAST AND NORTH
HOWEVER...SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL MEAN
WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW -10F. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS COULD SEE WIND
CHILLS AT OR BELOW -25F. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A WIND
CHILL WATCH ACROSS GARRETT AND EASTERN TUCKER COUNTIES.

BRIEF RIDGING SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL FINALLY DISRUPT THE MEAN
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL GRADUALLY KICK
INTO GEAR...BUT WITH SUCH A LOW STARTING POINT...HIGHS WILL STAY
WELL BELOW AVERAGE SUNDAY. THE NEXT WEAK WAVE ARRIVES MONDAY MORNING
SPREADING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW BACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN
INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY WARMER AIR SURGING NORTHWARD
WILL KEEP LOWS FROM BOTTOMING OUT MONDAY MORNING.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DIGGING TROUGH WILL DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MONDAY. STRONG SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL DEEPEN
THE LOW FURTHER AS IT ADVANCES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TAP INTO GULF AND ATLANTIC
MOISTURE...SPREADING IT NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION AND EAST. STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BRING PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT LEAST OUR
EASTERN ZONES BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. STILL QUESTIONS
SURROUNDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE RESULTANT WESTWARD
EDGE OF PRECIPITATION...PRECIPITATION TYPE...AND INTENSITY. AS OF THE
00Z RUNS...GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ACROSS THE MODEL
SUITE...BUT ALL HAVE NUDGED THE SURFACE LOW WEST OF THEIR POSITION
24HRS AGO.

CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR LIKELY SNOW TUESDAY MORNING REACHING WEST
TO THE OHIO RIVER INCLUDING PITTSBURGH. SIGNIFICANT MODEL SPREAD
DOES EXIST FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE VALUES TUESDAY...AND WITH THE
WESTWARD TREND...HAVE BUMPED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES. THIS WOULD
FAVOR AT LEAST SOME MIX OF RAIN/SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD
ULTIMATELY CUT INTO THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY DROP BELOW AVERAGE
THURSDAY...BEFORE REBOUNDING WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION BY THE WEEKEND.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMMENCE BY EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH A BURST OF SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG IT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR WILL BE WITH LOW
PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR OHZ039-048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PAZ008.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR WVZ003-004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ001-002-021-509>513.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ514.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 121050
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
550 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SNOW SNOW TO THE AREA LATER TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
OVERNIGHT DECOUPLING KEEPING WARM ADVECTION TO OUR WEST FROM
GENERALLY IMPACTING SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN RELEGATED TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH
MEANS A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY TODAY. THAT SAID...280-290K
LAYER ASCENT WILL INCREASE SLOWLY GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
GFS AND NAM CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS IN THE LAYER DROPPING
BELOW 10 MB SHORTLY AROUND 18Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. AS
SUCH...WHILE A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY KEEP MUCH MORE THAN
VERY LIGHT SNOW FROM FALLING OUT...GENERALLY CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT
SNOW WERE MAINTAINED EXCLUSIVELY IN THE AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE WARM ADVECTION WITH GOOD HI-RES AND
NAM/GFS MODEL AGREEMENT ON TIMING IT INTO THE NORTHERN REACHES OF
THE CWA TOWARD 00Z...DOWN TOWARD PITTSBURGH AROUND 03Z OR SO. THE
SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER IS STILL KEYING ON THIS BOUNDARY...AND HI-
RES REFLECTIVITIES ARE RATHER IMPRESSIVE AS IT SLICES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...AS IT STRAY FARTHER SOUTH
AND AWAY FROM A BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SOURCE..AKA LAKE ERIE...IT
GETS FAR LESS IMPRESSIVE. THUS...ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE AN INCH OR SO
WERE GENERALLY RELEGATED NORTH OF METRO PITTSBURGH.

BEHIND THE FRONT...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RISING INVERSION
HEIGHTS DUE TO RAPID COOLING AT 700 MB SHOULD ALLOW FOR LAKE
EFFECT BANDS TO PROPAGATE INLAND FAIRLY EFFICIENTLY. HI-RES
ARW/HRRR/NAM/GFS CONSENSUS DOES FAVOR A MULTI-LAKE FETCH
DEVELOPING ONE DOMINANT BAND DOWN THE LENGTH OF LAKE HURON AND
ACROSS LAKE ERIE INTO NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE CONSENSUS OF THE POSITIONS FAVORS
VENANGO COUNTY IN OUR AREA...THUS A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH WAS
ISSUED. THIS IS JUST A WATCH AND LATER MODEL RUNS MAY MEANDER THIS
BAND ONE WAY OR ANOTHER...SO FUTURE FORECASTS SHOULD BE MONITORED.

IN ADDITION TO PURE LAKE EFFECT...FAIRLY EFFICIENT UPSLOPE WILL
LIKELY COME INTO THE RIDGES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS WELL.
SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE OVERCOME BY EFFICIENT
MICROPHYSICS...HOWEVER EVEN WITH EFFICIENT RATIOS...A LACK OF QPF
SEEMS TO FAIL TO ALLOW MOST AREAS TO SURPASS ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
A WIDESPREAD BASIS. THUS...WHILE ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ALMOST
GUARANTEED...SIGNIFICANT SNOW SEEMS RATHER UNLIKELY.

ONE ADDITIONAL EVENTUALITY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SEEMS TO
BE A FAIRLY DEEP MIXING PROFILE. JUST OFF THE SURFACE...ROUGHLY
25-35 KTS OF MOMENTUM LOOKS TO BE PRESENT. THIS COMBINED WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING TOWARD 0F OVERNIGHT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR ALL AREAS TO SEE WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW
-10F...WHICH NECESSITATED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...ADDITIONAL MOMENTUM AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES MAY ALLOW FOR SOME AREAS TO DROP BELOW -25F. BECAUSE
OF ONLY MODEST CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD -25F NUMBERS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...A WIND CHILL WATCH WAS ISSUED. FURTHER SHIFTS CAN REFINE
WHETHER THIS SHOULD BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING OR ADVISORY. EITHER
WAY...VERY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN THE RIDGES WELL
BEYOND THE NEAR TERM. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE WANING LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST AND A SURFACE HIGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES NEAR THE ZERO DEGREE MARK FOR SUNDAY MORNING
LOWS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD IN...WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO. TO THE EAST AND NORTH
HOWEVER...SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL MEAN
WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW -10F. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS COULD SEE WIND
CHILLS AT OR BELOW -25F. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A WIND
CHILL WATCH ACROSS GARRETT AND EASTERN TUCKER COUNTIES.

BRIEF RIDGING SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL FINALLY DISRUPT THE MEAN
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL GRADUALLY KICK
INTO GEAR...BUT WITH SUCH A LOW STARTING POINT...HIGHS WILL STAY
WELL BELOW AVERAGE SUNDAY. THE NEXT WEAK WAVE ARRIVES MONDAY MORNING
SPREADING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW BACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN
INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY WARMER AIR SURGING NORTHWARD
WILL KEEP LOWS FROM BOTTOMING OUT MONDAY MORNING.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DIGGING TROUGH WILL DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MONDAY. STRONG SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL DEEPEN
THE LOW FURTHER AS IT ADVANCES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TAP INTO GULF AND ATLANTIC
MOISTURE...SPREADING IT NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION AND EAST. STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BRING PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT LEAST OUR
EASTERN ZONES BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. STILL QUESTIONS
SURROUNDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE RESULTANT WESTWARD
EDGE OF PRECIPITATION...PRECIPITATION TYPE...AND INTENSITY. AS OF THE
00Z RUNS...GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ACROSS THE MODEL
SUITE...BUT ALL HAVE NUDGED THE SURFACE LOW WEST OF THEIR POSITION
24HRS AGO.

CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR LIKELY SNOW TUESDAY MORNING REACHING WEST
TO THE OHIO RIVER INCLUDING PITTSBURGH. SIGNIFICANT MODEL SPREAD
DOES EXIST FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE VALUES TUESDAY...AND WITH THE
WESTWARD TREND...HAVE BUMPED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES. THIS WOULD
FAVOR AT LEAST SOME MIX OF RAIN/SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD
ULTIMATELY CUT INTO THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY DROP BELOW AVERAGE
THURSDAY...BEFORE REBOUNDING WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION BY THE WEEKEND.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMMENCE BY EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH A BURST OF SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG IT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR WILL BE WITH LOW
PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR OHZ039-048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PAZ008.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR WVZ003-004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ001-002-021-509>513.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 120926
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
426 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SNOW SNOW TO THE AREA LATER TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
OVERNIGHT DECOUPLING KEEPING WARM ADVECTION TO OUR WEST FROM
GENERALLY IMPACTING SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN RELEGATED TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH
MEANS A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY TODAY. THAT SAID...280-290K
LAYER ASCENT WILL INCREASE SLOWLY GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
GFS AND NAM CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS IN THE LAYER DROPPING
BELOW 10 MB SHORTLY AROUND 18Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. AS
SUCH...WHILE A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY KEEP MUCH MORE THAN
VERY LIGHT SNOW FROM FALLING OUT...GENERALLY CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT
SNOW WERE MAINTAINED IN THE AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE WARM ADVECTION WITH GOOD HI-RES AND
NAM/GFS MODEL AGREEMENT ON TIMING IT INTO THE NORTHERN REACHES OF
THE CWA TOWARD 00Z...DOWN TOWARD PITTSBURGH AROUND 03Z OR SO. THE
SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER IS STILL KEYING ON THIS BOUNDARY...AND HI-
RES REFLECTIVITIES ARE RATHER IMPRESSIVE AS IT SLICES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...AS IT STRAY FARTHER SOUTH
AND AWAY FROM A BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SOURCE..AKA LAKE ERIE...IT
GETS FAR LESS IMPRESSIVE. THUS...ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE AN INCH OR SO
WERE GENERALLY RELEGATED NORTH OF METRO PITTSBURGH.

BEHIND THE FRONT...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RISING INVERSION
HEIGHTS DUE TO RAPID COOLING AT 700 MB SHOULD ALLOW FOR LAKE
EFFECT BANDS TO PROPAGATE INLAND FAIRLY EFFICIENTLY. HI-RES
ARW/HRRR/NAM/GFS CONSENSUS DOES FAVOR A MULTI-LAKE FETCH
DEVELOPING ONE DOMINANT BAND DOWN THE LENGTH OF LAKE HURON AND
ACROSS LAKE ERIE INTO NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE CONSENSUS OF THE POSITIONS FAVORS
VENANGO COUNTY IN OUR AREA...THUS A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH WAS
ISSUED. THIS IS JUST A WATCH AND LATER MODEL RUNS MAY MEANDER THIS
BAND ONE WAY OR ANOTHER...SO FUTURE FORECASTS SHOULD BE MONITORED.

IN ADDITION TO PURE LAKE EFFECT...FAIRLY EFFICIENT UPSLOPE WILL
LIKELY COME INTO THE RIDGES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS WELL.
SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE OVERCOME BY EFFICIENT
MICROPHYSICS...HOWEVER EVEN WITH EFFICIENT RATIOS...A LACK OF QPF
SEEMS TO FAIL TO ALLOW MOST AREAS TO SURPASS ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
A WIDESPREAD BASIS. THUS...WHILE ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ALMOST
GUARANTEED...SIGNIFICANT SNOW SEEMS RATHER UNLIKELY.

ONE ADDITIONAL EVENTUALITY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SEEMS TO
BE A FAIRLY DEEP MIXING PROFILE. JUST OFF THE SURFACE...ROUGHLY
25-35 KTS OF MOMENTUM LOOKS TO BE PRESENT. THIS COMBINED WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING TOWARD 0F OVERNIGHT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR ALL AREAS TO SEE WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW
-10F...WHICH NECESSITATED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...ADDITIONAL MOMENTUM AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES MAY ALLOW FOR SOME AREAS TO DROP BELOW -25F. BECAUSE
OF ONLY MODEST CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD -25F NUMBERS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...A WIND CHILL WATCH WAS ISSUED. FURTHER SHIFTS CAN REFINE
WHETHER THIS SHOULD BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING OR ADVISORY. EITHER
WAY...VERY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN THE RIDGES WELL
BEYOND THE NEAR TERM. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE WANING LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST AND A SURFACE HIGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES NEAR THE ZERO DEGREE MARK FOR SUNDAY MORNING
LOWS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD IN...WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO. TO THE EAST AND NORTH
HOWEVER...SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL MEAN
WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW -10F. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS COULD SEE WIND
CHILLS AT OR BELOW -25F. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A WIND
CHILL WATCH ACROSS GARRETT AND EASTERN TUCKER COUNTIES.

BRIEF RIDGING SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL FINALLY DISRUPT THE MEAN
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL GRADUALLY KICK
INTO GEAR...BUT WITH SUCH A LOW STARTING POINT...HIGHS WILL STAY
WELL BELOW AVERAGE SUNDAY. THE NEXT WEAK WAVE ARRIVES MONDAY MORNING
SPREADING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW BACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN
INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY WARMER AIR SURGING NORTHWARD
WILL KEEP LOWS FROM BOTTOMING OUT MONDAY MORNING.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DIGGING TROUGH WILL DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MONDAY. STRONG SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL DEEPEN
THE LOW FURTHER AS IT ADVANCES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TAP INTO GULF AND ATLANTIC
MOISTURE...SPREADING IT NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION AND EAST. STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BRING PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT LEAST OUR
EASTERN ZONES BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. STILL QUESTIONS
SURROUNDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE RESULTANT WESTWARD
EDGE OF PRECIPITATION...PRECIPITATION TYPE...AND INTENSITY. AS OF THE
00Z RUNS...GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ACROSS THE MODEL
SUITE...BUT ALL HAVE NUDGED THE SURFACE LOW WEST OF THEIR POSITION
24HRS AGO.

CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR LIKELY SNOW TUESDAY MORNING REACHING WEST
TO THE OHIO RIVER INCLUDING PITTSBURGH. SIGNIFICANT MODEL SPREAD
DOES EXIST FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE VALUES TUESDAY...AND WITH THE
WESTWARD TREND...HAVE BUMPED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES. THIS WOULD
FAVOR AT LEAST SOME MIX OF RAIN/SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD
ULTIMATELY CUT INTO THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY DROP BELOW AVERAGE
THURSDAY...BEFORE REBOUNDING WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION BY THE WEEKEND.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
COMMENCE BY FRIDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
WITH A BURST OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG IT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR WILL BE WITH LOW
PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR OHZ039-048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PAZ008.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR WVZ003-004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ001-002-021-509>513.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ514.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 120926
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
426 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SNOW SNOW TO THE AREA LATER TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
OVERNIGHT DECOUPLING KEEPING WARM ADVECTION TO OUR WEST FROM
GENERALLY IMPACTING SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN RELEGATED TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH
MEANS A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY TODAY. THAT SAID...280-290K
LAYER ASCENT WILL INCREASE SLOWLY GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
GFS AND NAM CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS IN THE LAYER DROPPING
BELOW 10 MB SHORTLY AROUND 18Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. AS
SUCH...WHILE A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY KEEP MUCH MORE THAN
VERY LIGHT SNOW FROM FALLING OUT...GENERALLY CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT
SNOW WERE MAINTAINED IN THE AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE WARM ADVECTION WITH GOOD HI-RES AND
NAM/GFS MODEL AGREEMENT ON TIMING IT INTO THE NORTHERN REACHES OF
THE CWA TOWARD 00Z...DOWN TOWARD PITTSBURGH AROUND 03Z OR SO. THE
SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER IS STILL KEYING ON THIS BOUNDARY...AND HI-
RES REFLECTIVITIES ARE RATHER IMPRESSIVE AS IT SLICES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...AS IT STRAY FARTHER SOUTH
AND AWAY FROM A BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SOURCE..AKA LAKE ERIE...IT
GETS FAR LESS IMPRESSIVE. THUS...ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE AN INCH OR SO
WERE GENERALLY RELEGATED NORTH OF METRO PITTSBURGH.

BEHIND THE FRONT...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RISING INVERSION
HEIGHTS DUE TO RAPID COOLING AT 700 MB SHOULD ALLOW FOR LAKE
EFFECT BANDS TO PROPAGATE INLAND FAIRLY EFFICIENTLY. HI-RES
ARW/HRRR/NAM/GFS CONSENSUS DOES FAVOR A MULTI-LAKE FETCH
DEVELOPING ONE DOMINANT BAND DOWN THE LENGTH OF LAKE HURON AND
ACROSS LAKE ERIE INTO NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE CONSENSUS OF THE POSITIONS FAVORS
VENANGO COUNTY IN OUR AREA...THUS A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH WAS
ISSUED. THIS IS JUST A WATCH AND LATER MODEL RUNS MAY MEANDER THIS
BAND ONE WAY OR ANOTHER...SO FUTURE FORECASTS SHOULD BE MONITORED.

IN ADDITION TO PURE LAKE EFFECT...FAIRLY EFFICIENT UPSLOPE WILL
LIKELY COME INTO THE RIDGES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS WELL.
SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE OVERCOME BY EFFICIENT
MICROPHYSICS...HOWEVER EVEN WITH EFFICIENT RATIOS...A LACK OF QPF
SEEMS TO FAIL TO ALLOW MOST AREAS TO SURPASS ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
A WIDESPREAD BASIS. THUS...WHILE ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ALMOST
GUARANTEED...SIGNIFICANT SNOW SEEMS RATHER UNLIKELY.

ONE ADDITIONAL EVENTUALITY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SEEMS TO
BE A FAIRLY DEEP MIXING PROFILE. JUST OFF THE SURFACE...ROUGHLY
25-35 KTS OF MOMENTUM LOOKS TO BE PRESENT. THIS COMBINED WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING TOWARD 0F OVERNIGHT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR ALL AREAS TO SEE WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW
-10F...WHICH NECESSITATED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...ADDITIONAL MOMENTUM AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES MAY ALLOW FOR SOME AREAS TO DROP BELOW -25F. BECAUSE
OF ONLY MODEST CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD -25F NUMBERS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...A WIND CHILL WATCH WAS ISSUED. FURTHER SHIFTS CAN REFINE
WHETHER THIS SHOULD BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING OR ADVISORY. EITHER
WAY...VERY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN THE RIDGES WELL
BEYOND THE NEAR TERM. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE WANING LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST AND A SURFACE HIGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES NEAR THE ZERO DEGREE MARK FOR SUNDAY MORNING
LOWS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD IN...WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO. TO THE EAST AND NORTH
HOWEVER...SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL MEAN
WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW -10F. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS COULD SEE WIND
CHILLS AT OR BELOW -25F. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A WIND
CHILL WATCH ACROSS GARRETT AND EASTERN TUCKER COUNTIES.

BRIEF RIDGING SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL FINALLY DISRUPT THE MEAN
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL GRADUALLY KICK
INTO GEAR...BUT WITH SUCH A LOW STARTING POINT...HIGHS WILL STAY
WELL BELOW AVERAGE SUNDAY. THE NEXT WEAK WAVE ARRIVES MONDAY MORNING
SPREADING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW BACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN
INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY WARMER AIR SURGING NORTHWARD
WILL KEEP LOWS FROM BOTTOMING OUT MONDAY MORNING.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DIGGING TROUGH WILL DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MONDAY. STRONG SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL DEEPEN
THE LOW FURTHER AS IT ADVANCES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TAP INTO GULF AND ATLANTIC
MOISTURE...SPREADING IT NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION AND EAST. STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BRING PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT LEAST OUR
EASTERN ZONES BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. STILL QUESTIONS
SURROUNDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE RESULTANT WESTWARD
EDGE OF PRECIPITATION...PRECIPITATION TYPE...AND INTENSITY. AS OF THE
00Z RUNS...GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ACROSS THE MODEL
SUITE...BUT ALL HAVE NUDGED THE SURFACE LOW WEST OF THEIR POSITION
24HRS AGO.

CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR LIKELY SNOW TUESDAY MORNING REACHING WEST
TO THE OHIO RIVER INCLUDING PITTSBURGH. SIGNIFICANT MODEL SPREAD
DOES EXIST FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE VALUES TUESDAY...AND WITH THE
WESTWARD TREND...HAVE BUMPED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES. THIS WOULD
FAVOR AT LEAST SOME MIX OF RAIN/SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD
ULTIMATELY CUT INTO THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY DROP BELOW AVERAGE
THURSDAY...BEFORE REBOUNDING WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION BY THE WEEKEND.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
COMMENCE BY FRIDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
WITH A BURST OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG IT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR WILL BE WITH LOW
PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR OHZ039-048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PAZ008.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR WVZ003-004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ001-002-021-509>513.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 120926
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
426 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SNOW SNOW TO THE AREA LATER TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
OVERNIGHT DECOUPLING KEEPING WARM ADVECTION TO OUR WEST FROM
GENERALLY IMPACTING SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN RELEGATED TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH
MEANS A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY TODAY. THAT SAID...280-290K
LAYER ASCENT WILL INCREASE SLOWLY GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
GFS AND NAM CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS IN THE LAYER DROPPING
BELOW 10 MB SHORTLY AROUND 18Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. AS
SUCH...WHILE A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY KEEP MUCH MORE THAN
VERY LIGHT SNOW FROM FALLING OUT...GENERALLY CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT
SNOW WERE MAINTAINED IN THE AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE WARM ADVECTION WITH GOOD HI-RES AND
NAM/GFS MODEL AGREEMENT ON TIMING IT INTO THE NORTHERN REACHES OF
THE CWA TOWARD 00Z...DOWN TOWARD PITTSBURGH AROUND 03Z OR SO. THE
SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER IS STILL KEYING ON THIS BOUNDARY...AND HI-
RES REFLECTIVITIES ARE RATHER IMPRESSIVE AS IT SLICES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...AS IT STRAY FARTHER SOUTH
AND AWAY FROM A BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SOURCE..AKA LAKE ERIE...IT
GETS FAR LESS IMPRESSIVE. THUS...ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE AN INCH OR SO
WERE GENERALLY RELEGATED NORTH OF METRO PITTSBURGH.

BEHIND THE FRONT...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RISING INVERSION
HEIGHTS DUE TO RAPID COOLING AT 700 MB SHOULD ALLOW FOR LAKE
EFFECT BANDS TO PROPAGATE INLAND FAIRLY EFFICIENTLY. HI-RES
ARW/HRRR/NAM/GFS CONSENSUS DOES FAVOR A MULTI-LAKE FETCH
DEVELOPING ONE DOMINANT BAND DOWN THE LENGTH OF LAKE HURON AND
ACROSS LAKE ERIE INTO NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE CONSENSUS OF THE POSITIONS FAVORS
VENANGO COUNTY IN OUR AREA...THUS A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH WAS
ISSUED. THIS IS JUST A WATCH AND LATER MODEL RUNS MAY MEANDER THIS
BAND ONE WAY OR ANOTHER...SO FUTURE FORECASTS SHOULD BE MONITORED.

IN ADDITION TO PURE LAKE EFFECT...FAIRLY EFFICIENT UPSLOPE WILL
LIKELY COME INTO THE RIDGES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS WELL.
SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE OVERCOME BY EFFICIENT
MICROPHYSICS...HOWEVER EVEN WITH EFFICIENT RATIOS...A LACK OF QPF
SEEMS TO FAIL TO ALLOW MOST AREAS TO SURPASS ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
A WIDESPREAD BASIS. THUS...WHILE ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ALMOST
GUARANTEED...SIGNIFICANT SNOW SEEMS RATHER UNLIKELY.

ONE ADDITIONAL EVENTUALITY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SEEMS TO
BE A FAIRLY DEEP MIXING PROFILE. JUST OFF THE SURFACE...ROUGHLY
25-35 KTS OF MOMENTUM LOOKS TO BE PRESENT. THIS COMBINED WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING TOWARD 0F OVERNIGHT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR ALL AREAS TO SEE WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW
-10F...WHICH NECESSITATED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...ADDITIONAL MOMENTUM AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES MAY ALLOW FOR SOME AREAS TO DROP BELOW -25F. BECAUSE
OF ONLY MODEST CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD -25F NUMBERS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...A WIND CHILL WATCH WAS ISSUED. FURTHER SHIFTS CAN REFINE
WHETHER THIS SHOULD BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING OR ADVISORY. EITHER
WAY...VERY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN THE RIDGES WELL
BEYOND THE NEAR TERM. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE WANING LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST AND A SURFACE HIGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES NEAR THE ZERO DEGREE MARK FOR SUNDAY MORNING
LOWS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD IN...WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO. TO THE EAST AND NORTH
HOWEVER...SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL MEAN
WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW -10F. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS COULD SEE WIND
CHILLS AT OR BELOW -25F. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A WIND
CHILL WATCH ACROSS GARRETT AND EASTERN TUCKER COUNTIES.

BRIEF RIDGING SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL FINALLY DISRUPT THE MEAN
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL GRADUALLY KICK
INTO GEAR...BUT WITH SUCH A LOW STARTING POINT...HIGHS WILL STAY
WELL BELOW AVERAGE SUNDAY. THE NEXT WEAK WAVE ARRIVES MONDAY MORNING
SPREADING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW BACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN
INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY WARMER AIR SURGING NORTHWARD
WILL KEEP LOWS FROM BOTTOMING OUT MONDAY MORNING.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DIGGING TROUGH WILL DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MONDAY. STRONG SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL DEEPEN
THE LOW FURTHER AS IT ADVANCES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TAP INTO GULF AND ATLANTIC
MOISTURE...SPREADING IT NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION AND EAST. STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BRING PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT LEAST OUR
EASTERN ZONES BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. STILL QUESTIONS
SURROUNDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE RESULTANT WESTWARD
EDGE OF PRECIPITATION...PRECIPITATION TYPE...AND INTENSITY. AS OF THE
00Z RUNS...GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ACROSS THE MODEL
SUITE...BUT ALL HAVE NUDGED THE SURFACE LOW WEST OF THEIR POSITION
24HRS AGO.

CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR LIKELY SNOW TUESDAY MORNING REACHING WEST
TO THE OHIO RIVER INCLUDING PITTSBURGH. SIGNIFICANT MODEL SPREAD
DOES EXIST FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE VALUES TUESDAY...AND WITH THE
WESTWARD TREND...HAVE BUMPED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES. THIS WOULD
FAVOR AT LEAST SOME MIX OF RAIN/SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD
ULTIMATELY CUT INTO THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY DROP BELOW AVERAGE
THURSDAY...BEFORE REBOUNDING WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION BY THE WEEKEND.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
COMMENCE BY FRIDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
WITH A BURST OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG IT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR WILL BE WITH LOW
PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR OHZ039-048-049-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PAZ008.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR WVZ003-004-012.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ001-002-021-509>513.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ514.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 120618
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
118 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING MORE SNOW CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED BASICALLY WALL-TO-WALL AND TEMPERATURES HAVE
GONE INTO FREE FALL IN MOST AREAS. HIGH CLOUDS IN THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ARE POISED TO GENERALLY REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA AS THEY TRANSIT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY. THAT PLACES OUR AREA IN A WAITING PATTERN FOR THE MID-
CLOUD DECK AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM THAT WILL START TO AFFECT US ON
FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...CLEARING WILL REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...MEANING VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. SOME AREAS ARE ALREADY
BELOW ZERO...AND EVERYONE LOOKS TO AT THE VERY LEAST DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BY THE TIME ANY CLOUDS MAKE IT INTO THE AREA. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LWR OH VLY/MID ATLANTIC
RGN FRI BRINGING INCRG LGT SNOW CHCS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...IS EXPD TO CROSS THE RGN FRI EVE WITH
BETTER CHCS FOR SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
UNDER UPR TROFG AND LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT LATER FRI NGT AND
SAT...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPD TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA AS DRY ARCTIC AIR RESULTS IN UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE CONTENT
IN THE SNOW GROWTH RGN. BLDG HIGH PRESSURE SAT NGT/SUN SHOULD
BRING DRY WEATHER.

WIND WITH SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT AND COLD TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT
THRU SOMETIME SAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADVISORY LVL WIND CHILLS
ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA. DIMINISHING WINDS MAY PROVIDE FOR LESSER
CHCS OF WIND CHILL ADVISORIES SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...THOUGH TEMPS NR
OR BELOW ZERO ARE EXPD. TEMPS WERE MODIFIED SLIGHTLY FROM
SUPERBLENDED GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES MOVE TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES
TO START THE WEEK. MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FOR SOUTHERN
STREAM STORM SYSTEM INTENSIFYING AND MOVING NORTHEAST LATER
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WPC PROGS AND
THE SUPERBLEND...WITH HIGHEST POPS INTO THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY WITH
CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE SEASONAL NORM. HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO GIVE A DRY DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
COMMENCE BY FRIDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
WITH A BURST OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG IT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR WILL BE WITH LOW
PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 120618
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
118 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING MORE SNOW CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED BASICALLY WALL-TO-WALL AND TEMPERATURES HAVE
GONE INTO FREE FALL IN MOST AREAS. HIGH CLOUDS IN THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ARE POISED TO GENERALLY REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA AS THEY TRANSIT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY. THAT PLACES OUR AREA IN A WAITING PATTERN FOR THE MID-
CLOUD DECK AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM THAT WILL START TO AFFECT US ON
FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...CLEARING WILL REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...MEANING VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. SOME AREAS ARE ALREADY
BELOW ZERO...AND EVERYONE LOOKS TO AT THE VERY LEAST DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BY THE TIME ANY CLOUDS MAKE IT INTO THE AREA. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LWR OH VLY/MID ATLANTIC
RGN FRI BRINGING INCRG LGT SNOW CHCS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...IS EXPD TO CROSS THE RGN FRI EVE WITH
BETTER CHCS FOR SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
UNDER UPR TROFG AND LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT LATER FRI NGT AND
SAT...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPD TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA AS DRY ARCTIC AIR RESULTS IN UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE CONTENT
IN THE SNOW GROWTH RGN. BLDG HIGH PRESSURE SAT NGT/SUN SHOULD
BRING DRY WEATHER.

WIND WITH SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT AND COLD TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT
THRU SOMETIME SAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADVISORY LVL WIND CHILLS
ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA. DIMINISHING WINDS MAY PROVIDE FOR LESSER
CHCS OF WIND CHILL ADVISORIES SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...THOUGH TEMPS NR
OR BELOW ZERO ARE EXPD. TEMPS WERE MODIFIED SLIGHTLY FROM
SUPERBLENDED GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES MOVE TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES
TO START THE WEEK. MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FOR SOUTHERN
STREAM STORM SYSTEM INTENSIFYING AND MOVING NORTHEAST LATER
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WPC PROGS AND
THE SUPERBLEND...WITH HIGHEST POPS INTO THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY WITH
CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE SEASONAL NORM. HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO GIVE A DRY DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
COMMENCE BY FRIDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
WITH A BURST OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG IT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR WILL BE WITH LOW
PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 120225
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
925 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING MORE SNOW CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WITH 930PM UPDATE...APPEARS THAT NEARLY ALL SNOW HAS COME TO AN
END FOR THE EVENING...BUT HAVE STILL KEEP SOME FLURRIES IN THE
FORECAST IN CASE THE RADAR IS OVERSHOOTING ANY REMAINING SNOW.
STILL NOT SURE JUST HOW LOW TEMPERATURES MIGHT DROP TONIGHT.
DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM NEAR 0 TO AS HIGH AS 10 ABOVE...WHICH SHOULD
BE THE LOWER BOUND FOR TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. WITH SKIES CLEARING
OUT AND WINDS REMAINING RELATIVELY LIGHT...THOUGHT THAT
TEMPERATURES WOULD HAVE BEEN DROPPING MORE THAN THEY HAVE SO FAR.
DESPITE THIS...STILL DROPPED OVERNIGHT LOWS ANOTHER DEGREE OR
TWO...ANTICIPATING THAT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL FOR A TIME BEFORE
HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LWR OH VLY/MID ATLANTIC
RGN FRI BRINGING INCRG LGT SNOW CHCS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...IS EXPD TO CROSS THE RGN FRI EVE WITH
BETTER CHCS FOR SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
UNDER UPR TROFG AND LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT LATER FRI NGT AND
SAT...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPD TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA AS DRY ARCTIC AIR RESULTS IN UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE CONTENT
IN THE SNOW GROWTH RGN. BLDG HIGH PRESSURE SAT NGT/SUN SHOULD
BRING DRY WEATHER.

WIND WITH SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT AND COLD TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT
THRU SOMETIME SAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADVISORY LVL WIND CHILLS
ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA. DIMINISHING WINDS MAY PROVIDE FOR LESSER
CHCS OF WIND CHILL ADVISORIES SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...THOUGH TEMPS NR
OR BELOW ZERO ARE EXPD. TEMPS WERE MODIFIED SLIGHTLY FROM
SUPERBLENDED GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES MOVE TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES
TO START THE WEEK. MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FOR SOUTHERN
STREAM STORM SYSTEM INTENSIFYING AND MOVING NORTHEAST LATER
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WPC PROGS AND
THE SUPERBLEND...WITH HIGHEST POPS INTO THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY WITH
CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE SEASONAL NORM. HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO GIVE A DRY DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE BY MID EVENING.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR WILL BE WITH LOW
PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 120225
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
925 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING MORE SNOW CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WITH 930PM UPDATE...APPEARS THAT NEARLY ALL SNOW HAS COME TO AN
END FOR THE EVENING...BUT HAVE STILL KEEP SOME FLURRIES IN THE
FORECAST IN CASE THE RADAR IS OVERSHOOTING ANY REMAINING SNOW.
STILL NOT SURE JUST HOW LOW TEMPERATURES MIGHT DROP TONIGHT.
DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM NEAR 0 TO AS HIGH AS 10 ABOVE...WHICH SHOULD
BE THE LOWER BOUND FOR TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. WITH SKIES CLEARING
OUT AND WINDS REMAINING RELATIVELY LIGHT...THOUGHT THAT
TEMPERATURES WOULD HAVE BEEN DROPPING MORE THAN THEY HAVE SO FAR.
DESPITE THIS...STILL DROPPED OVERNIGHT LOWS ANOTHER DEGREE OR
TWO...ANTICIPATING THAT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL FOR A TIME BEFORE
HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LWR OH VLY/MID ATLANTIC
RGN FRI BRINGING INCRG LGT SNOW CHCS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...IS EXPD TO CROSS THE RGN FRI EVE WITH
BETTER CHCS FOR SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
UNDER UPR TROFG AND LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT LATER FRI NGT AND
SAT...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPD TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA AS DRY ARCTIC AIR RESULTS IN UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE CONTENT
IN THE SNOW GROWTH RGN. BLDG HIGH PRESSURE SAT NGT/SUN SHOULD
BRING DRY WEATHER.

WIND WITH SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT AND COLD TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT
THRU SOMETIME SAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADVISORY LVL WIND CHILLS
ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA. DIMINISHING WINDS MAY PROVIDE FOR LESSER
CHCS OF WIND CHILL ADVISORIES SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...THOUGH TEMPS NR
OR BELOW ZERO ARE EXPD. TEMPS WERE MODIFIED SLIGHTLY FROM
SUPERBLENDED GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES MOVE TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES
TO START THE WEEK. MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FOR SOUTHERN
STREAM STORM SYSTEM INTENSIFYING AND MOVING NORTHEAST LATER
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WPC PROGS AND
THE SUPERBLEND...WITH HIGHEST POPS INTO THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY WITH
CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE SEASONAL NORM. HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO GIVE A DRY DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE BY MID EVENING.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR WILL BE WITH LOW
PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 120225
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
925 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING MORE SNOW CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WITH 930PM UPDATE...APPEARS THAT NEARLY ALL SNOW HAS COME TO AN
END FOR THE EVENING...BUT HAVE STILL KEEP SOME FLURRIES IN THE
FORECAST IN CASE THE RADAR IS OVERSHOOTING ANY REMAINING SNOW.
STILL NOT SURE JUST HOW LOW TEMPERATURES MIGHT DROP TONIGHT.
DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM NEAR 0 TO AS HIGH AS 10 ABOVE...WHICH SHOULD
BE THE LOWER BOUND FOR TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. WITH SKIES CLEARING
OUT AND WINDS REMAINING RELATIVELY LIGHT...THOUGHT THAT
TEMPERATURES WOULD HAVE BEEN DROPPING MORE THAN THEY HAVE SO FAR.
DESPITE THIS...STILL DROPPED OVERNIGHT LOWS ANOTHER DEGREE OR
TWO...ANTICIPATING THAT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL FOR A TIME BEFORE
HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LWR OH VLY/MID ATLANTIC
RGN FRI BRINGING INCRG LGT SNOW CHCS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...IS EXPD TO CROSS THE RGN FRI EVE WITH
BETTER CHCS FOR SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
UNDER UPR TROFG AND LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT LATER FRI NGT AND
SAT...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPD TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA AS DRY ARCTIC AIR RESULTS IN UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE CONTENT
IN THE SNOW GROWTH RGN. BLDG HIGH PRESSURE SAT NGT/SUN SHOULD
BRING DRY WEATHER.

WIND WITH SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT AND COLD TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT
THRU SOMETIME SAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADVISORY LVL WIND CHILLS
ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA. DIMINISHING WINDS MAY PROVIDE FOR LESSER
CHCS OF WIND CHILL ADVISORIES SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...THOUGH TEMPS NR
OR BELOW ZERO ARE EXPD. TEMPS WERE MODIFIED SLIGHTLY FROM
SUPERBLENDED GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES MOVE TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES
TO START THE WEEK. MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FOR SOUTHERN
STREAM STORM SYSTEM INTENSIFYING AND MOVING NORTHEAST LATER
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WPC PROGS AND
THE SUPERBLEND...WITH HIGHEST POPS INTO THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY WITH
CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE SEASONAL NORM. HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO GIVE A DRY DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE BY MID EVENING.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR WILL BE WITH LOW
PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 112335
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
635 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SNOW CHANCES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH 6PM UPDATE...TWEAKED HOURLY POPS AND TEMPERATURES...KEEPING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST SLIGHTLY LONGER FOR THE
TIER OF COUNTIES JUST NORTH OF PITTSBURGH WHERE ECHOES HAVE HELD
ON THE LONGEST. ALTHOUGH THE VERY COLD AIR IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION UNTIL TOMORROW NIGHT...LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES COULD PLUMMET ALONG INTERSTATE 80 IF SKIES MANAGE TO
CLEAR OUT. THINK THE CLOUDS WILL HANG IN LONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT
THIS FROM HAPPENING...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SCATTERED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF THRU THE
EVE AS MDL PROGGED AND OBSERVED UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW LWRG TEMP
INVERSIONS...AND WKNG LAPSE RATES. BLDG HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
BRING CLRG SKIES TONIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD AVG AROUND 15 DEG BELOW
SEASONAL LVLS USING THE LATEST NR TERM CONSENSUS BLENDED
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LWR OH VLY/MID ATLANTIC
RGN FRI BRINGING INCRG LGT SNOW CHCS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...IS EXPD TO CROSS THE RGN FRI EVE WITH
BETTER CHCS FOR SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
UNDER UPR TROFG AND LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT LATER FRI NGT AND
SAT...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPD TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA AS DRY ARCTIC AIR RESULTS IN UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE CONTENT
IN THE SNOW GROWTH RGN. BLDG HIGH PRESSURE SAT NGT/SUN SHOULD
BRING DRY WEATHER.

WIND WITH SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT AND COLD TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT
THRU SOMETIME SAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADVISORY LVL WIND CHILLS
ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA. DIMINISHING WINDS MAY PROVIDE FOR LESSER
CHCS OF WIND CHILL ADVISORIES SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...THOUGH TEMPS NR
OR BELOW ZERO ARE EXPD. TEMPS WERE MODIFIED SLIGHTLY FROM
SUPERBLENDED GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES MOVE TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES
TO START THE WEEK. MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FOR SOUTHERN
STREAM STORM SYSTEM INTENSIFYING AND MOVING NORTHEAST LATER
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WPC PROGS AND
THE SUPERBLEND...WITH HIGHEST POPS INTO THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY WITH
CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE SEASONAL NORM. HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO GIVE A DRY DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND FLIGHT
RESTRICTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY
MID EVENING.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR WILL BE WITH LOW
PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 112335
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
635 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SNOW CHANCES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH 6PM UPDATE...TWEAKED HOURLY POPS AND TEMPERATURES...KEEPING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST SLIGHTLY LONGER FOR THE
TIER OF COUNTIES JUST NORTH OF PITTSBURGH WHERE ECHOES HAVE HELD
ON THE LONGEST. ALTHOUGH THE VERY COLD AIR IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION UNTIL TOMORROW NIGHT...LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES COULD PLUMMET ALONG INTERSTATE 80 IF SKIES MANAGE TO
CLEAR OUT. THINK THE CLOUDS WILL HANG IN LONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT
THIS FROM HAPPENING...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SCATTERED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF THRU THE
EVE AS MDL PROGGED AND OBSERVED UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW LWRG TEMP
INVERSIONS...AND WKNG LAPSE RATES. BLDG HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
BRING CLRG SKIES TONIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD AVG AROUND 15 DEG BELOW
SEASONAL LVLS USING THE LATEST NR TERM CONSENSUS BLENDED
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LWR OH VLY/MID ATLANTIC
RGN FRI BRINGING INCRG LGT SNOW CHCS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...IS EXPD TO CROSS THE RGN FRI EVE WITH
BETTER CHCS FOR SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
UNDER UPR TROFG AND LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT LATER FRI NGT AND
SAT...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPD TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA AS DRY ARCTIC AIR RESULTS IN UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE CONTENT
IN THE SNOW GROWTH RGN. BLDG HIGH PRESSURE SAT NGT/SUN SHOULD
BRING DRY WEATHER.

WIND WITH SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT AND COLD TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT
THRU SOMETIME SAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADVISORY LVL WIND CHILLS
ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA. DIMINISHING WINDS MAY PROVIDE FOR LESSER
CHCS OF WIND CHILL ADVISORIES SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...THOUGH TEMPS NR
OR BELOW ZERO ARE EXPD. TEMPS WERE MODIFIED SLIGHTLY FROM
SUPERBLENDED GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES MOVE TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES
TO START THE WEEK. MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FOR SOUTHERN
STREAM STORM SYSTEM INTENSIFYING AND MOVING NORTHEAST LATER
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WPC PROGS AND
THE SUPERBLEND...WITH HIGHEST POPS INTO THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY WITH
CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE SEASONAL NORM. HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO GIVE A DRY DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND FLIGHT
RESTRICTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY
MID EVENING.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR WILL BE WITH LOW
PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 112335
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
635 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SNOW CHANCES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH 6PM UPDATE...TWEAKED HOURLY POPS AND TEMPERATURES...KEEPING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST SLIGHTLY LONGER FOR THE
TIER OF COUNTIES JUST NORTH OF PITTSBURGH WHERE ECHOES HAVE HELD
ON THE LONGEST. ALTHOUGH THE VERY COLD AIR IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION UNTIL TOMORROW NIGHT...LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES COULD PLUMMET ALONG INTERSTATE 80 IF SKIES MANAGE TO
CLEAR OUT. THINK THE CLOUDS WILL HANG IN LONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT
THIS FROM HAPPENING...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SCATTERED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF THRU THE
EVE AS MDL PROGGED AND OBSERVED UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW LWRG TEMP
INVERSIONS...AND WKNG LAPSE RATES. BLDG HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
BRING CLRG SKIES TONIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD AVG AROUND 15 DEG BELOW
SEASONAL LVLS USING THE LATEST NR TERM CONSENSUS BLENDED
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LWR OH VLY/MID ATLANTIC
RGN FRI BRINGING INCRG LGT SNOW CHCS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...IS EXPD TO CROSS THE RGN FRI EVE WITH
BETTER CHCS FOR SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
UNDER UPR TROFG AND LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT LATER FRI NGT AND
SAT...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPD TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA AS DRY ARCTIC AIR RESULTS IN UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE CONTENT
IN THE SNOW GROWTH RGN. BLDG HIGH PRESSURE SAT NGT/SUN SHOULD
BRING DRY WEATHER.

WIND WITH SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT AND COLD TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT
THRU SOMETIME SAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADVISORY LVL WIND CHILLS
ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA. DIMINISHING WINDS MAY PROVIDE FOR LESSER
CHCS OF WIND CHILL ADVISORIES SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...THOUGH TEMPS NR
OR BELOW ZERO ARE EXPD. TEMPS WERE MODIFIED SLIGHTLY FROM
SUPERBLENDED GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES MOVE TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES
TO START THE WEEK. MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FOR SOUTHERN
STREAM STORM SYSTEM INTENSIFYING AND MOVING NORTHEAST LATER
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WPC PROGS AND
THE SUPERBLEND...WITH HIGHEST POPS INTO THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY WITH
CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE SEASONAL NORM. HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO GIVE A DRY DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND FLIGHT
RESTRICTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY
MID EVENING.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR WILL BE WITH LOW
PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 112259
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
559 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SNOW CHANCES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH 6PM UPDATE...TWEAKED HOURLY POPS AND TEMPERATURES...KEEPING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST SLIGHTLY LONGER FOR THE
TIER OF COUNTIES JUST NORTH OF PITTSBURGH WHERE ECHOES HAVE HELD
ON THE LONGEST. ALTHOUGH THE VERY COLD AIR IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION UNTIL TOMORROW NIGHT...LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES COULD PLUMMET ALONG INTERSTATE 80 IF SKIES MANAGE TO
CLEAR OUT. THINK THE CLOUDS WILL HANG IN LONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT
THIS FROM HAPPENING...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SCATTERED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF THRU THE
EVE AS MDL PROGGED AND OBSERVED UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW LWRG TEMP
INVERSIONS...AND WKNG LAPSE RATES. BLDG HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
BRING CLRG SKIES TONIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD AVG AROUND 15 DEG BELOW
SEASONAL LVLS USING THE LATEST NR TERM CONSENSUS BLENDED
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LWR OH VLY/MID ATLANTIC
RGN FRI BRINGING INCRG LGT SNOW CHCS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...IS EXPD TO CROSS THE RGN FRI EVE WITH
BETTER CHCS FOR SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
UNDER UPR TROFG AND LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT LATER FRI NGT AND
SAT...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPD TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA AS DRY ARCTIC AIR RESULTS IN UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE CONTENT
IN THE SNOW GROWTH RGN. BLDG HIGH PRESSURE SAT NGT/SUN SHOULD
BRING DRY WEATHER.

WIND WITH SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT AND COLD TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT
THRU SOMETIME SAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADVISORY LVL WIND CHILLS
ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA. DIMINISHING WINDS MAY PROVIDE FOR LESSER
CHCS OF WIND CHILL ADVISORIES SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...THOUGH TEMPS NR
OR BELOW ZERO ARE EXPD. TEMPS WERE MODIFIED SLIGHTLY FROM
SUPERBLENDED GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES MOVE TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES
TO START THE WEEK. MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FOR SOUTHERN
STREAM STORM SYSTEM INTENSIFYING AND MOVING NORTHEAST LATER
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WPC PROGS AND
THE SUPERBLEND...WITH HIGHEST POPS INTO THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY WITH
CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE SEASONAL NORM. HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO GIVE A DRY DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL GIVE MVFR AT TIMES FOR NRN PORTS INTO
LATE AFTERNOON...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE TURNS THE FLOW AND BEGINS TO
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING FOR VFR CONDITIONS. WEST WINDS 10-15KTS
WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR WILL BE WITH LOW
PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 112259
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
559 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SNOW CHANCES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH 6PM UPDATE...TWEAKED HOURLY POPS AND TEMPERATURES...KEEPING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST SLIGHTLY LONGER FOR THE
TIER OF COUNTIES JUST NORTH OF PITTSBURGH WHERE ECHOES HAVE HELD
ON THE LONGEST. ALTHOUGH THE VERY COLD AIR IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION UNTIL TOMORROW NIGHT...LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES COULD PLUMMET ALONG INTERSTATE 80 IF SKIES MANAGE TO
CLEAR OUT. THINK THE CLOUDS WILL HANG IN LONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT
THIS FROM HAPPENING...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SCATTERED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF THRU THE
EVE AS MDL PROGGED AND OBSERVED UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW LWRG TEMP
INVERSIONS...AND WKNG LAPSE RATES. BLDG HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
BRING CLRG SKIES TONIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD AVG AROUND 15 DEG BELOW
SEASONAL LVLS USING THE LATEST NR TERM CONSENSUS BLENDED
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LWR OH VLY/MID ATLANTIC
RGN FRI BRINGING INCRG LGT SNOW CHCS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...IS EXPD TO CROSS THE RGN FRI EVE WITH
BETTER CHCS FOR SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
UNDER UPR TROFG AND LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT LATER FRI NGT AND
SAT...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPD TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA AS DRY ARCTIC AIR RESULTS IN UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE CONTENT
IN THE SNOW GROWTH RGN. BLDG HIGH PRESSURE SAT NGT/SUN SHOULD
BRING DRY WEATHER.

WIND WITH SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT AND COLD TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT
THRU SOMETIME SAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADVISORY LVL WIND CHILLS
ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA. DIMINISHING WINDS MAY PROVIDE FOR LESSER
CHCS OF WIND CHILL ADVISORIES SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...THOUGH TEMPS NR
OR BELOW ZERO ARE EXPD. TEMPS WERE MODIFIED SLIGHTLY FROM
SUPERBLENDED GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES MOVE TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES
TO START THE WEEK. MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FOR SOUTHERN
STREAM STORM SYSTEM INTENSIFYING AND MOVING NORTHEAST LATER
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WPC PROGS AND
THE SUPERBLEND...WITH HIGHEST POPS INTO THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY WITH
CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE SEASONAL NORM. HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO GIVE A DRY DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL GIVE MVFR AT TIMES FOR NRN PORTS INTO
LATE AFTERNOON...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE TURNS THE FLOW AND BEGINS TO
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING FOR VFR CONDITIONS. WEST WINDS 10-15KTS
WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR WILL BE WITH LOW
PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 112259
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
559 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SNOW CHANCES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH 6PM UPDATE...TWEAKED HOURLY POPS AND TEMPERATURES...KEEPING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST SLIGHTLY LONGER FOR THE
TIER OF COUNTIES JUST NORTH OF PITTSBURGH WHERE ECHOES HAVE HELD
ON THE LONGEST. ALTHOUGH THE VERY COLD AIR IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION UNTIL TOMORROW NIGHT...LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES COULD PLUMMET ALONG INTERSTATE 80 IF SKIES MANAGE TO
CLEAR OUT. THINK THE CLOUDS WILL HANG IN LONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT
THIS FROM HAPPENING...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SCATTERED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF THRU THE
EVE AS MDL PROGGED AND OBSERVED UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW LWRG TEMP
INVERSIONS...AND WKNG LAPSE RATES. BLDG HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
BRING CLRG SKIES TONIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD AVG AROUND 15 DEG BELOW
SEASONAL LVLS USING THE LATEST NR TERM CONSENSUS BLENDED
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LWR OH VLY/MID ATLANTIC
RGN FRI BRINGING INCRG LGT SNOW CHCS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...IS EXPD TO CROSS THE RGN FRI EVE WITH
BETTER CHCS FOR SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
UNDER UPR TROFG AND LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT LATER FRI NGT AND
SAT...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPD TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA AS DRY ARCTIC AIR RESULTS IN UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE CONTENT
IN THE SNOW GROWTH RGN. BLDG HIGH PRESSURE SAT NGT/SUN SHOULD
BRING DRY WEATHER.

WIND WITH SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT AND COLD TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT
THRU SOMETIME SAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADVISORY LVL WIND CHILLS
ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA. DIMINISHING WINDS MAY PROVIDE FOR LESSER
CHCS OF WIND CHILL ADVISORIES SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...THOUGH TEMPS NR
OR BELOW ZERO ARE EXPD. TEMPS WERE MODIFIED SLIGHTLY FROM
SUPERBLENDED GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES MOVE TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES
TO START THE WEEK. MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FOR SOUTHERN
STREAM STORM SYSTEM INTENSIFYING AND MOVING NORTHEAST LATER
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WPC PROGS AND
THE SUPERBLEND...WITH HIGHEST POPS INTO THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY WITH
CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE SEASONAL NORM. HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO GIVE A DRY DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL GIVE MVFR AT TIMES FOR NRN PORTS INTO
LATE AFTERNOON...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE TURNS THE FLOW AND BEGINS TO
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING FOR VFR CONDITIONS. WEST WINDS 10-15KTS
WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR WILL BE WITH LOW
PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 111940
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
240 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SNOW CHANCES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF THRU THE
EVE AS MDL PROGGED AND OBSERVED UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW LWRG TEMP
INVERSIONS...AND WKNG LAPSE RATES. BLDG HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
BRING CLRG SKIES TONIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD AVG AROUND 15 DEG BELOW
SEASONAL LVLS USING THE LATEST NR TERM CONSENSUS BLENDED
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LWR OH VLY/MID ATLANTIC
RGN FRI BRINGING INCRG LGT SNOW CHCS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...IS EXPD TO CROSS THE RGN FRI EVE WITH
BETTER CHCS FOR SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
UNDER UPR TROFG AND LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT LATER FRI NGT AND
SAT...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPD TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA AS DRY ARCTIC AIR RESULTS IN UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE CONTENT
IN THE SNOW GROWTH RGN. BLDG HIGH PRESSURE SAT NGT/SUN SHOULD
BRING DRY WEATHER.

WIND WITH SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT AND COLD TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT
THRU SOMETIME SAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADVISORY LVL WIND CHILLS
ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA. DIMINISHING WINDS MAY PROVIDE FOR LESSER
CHCS OF WIND CHILL ADVISORIES SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...THOUGH TEMPS NR
OR BELOW ZERO ARE EXPD. TEMPS WERE MODIFIED SLIGHTLY FROM
SUPERBLENDED GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES MOVE TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES
TO START THE WEEK. MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FOR SOUTHERN
STREAM STORM SYSTEM INTENSIFYING AND MOVING NORTHEAST LATER
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WPC PROGS AND
THE SUPERBLEND...WITH HIGHEST POPS INTO THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY WITH
CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE SEASONAL NORM. HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO GIVE A DRY DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL GIVE MVFR AT TIMES FOR NRN PORTS INTO
LATE AFTERNOON...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE TURNS THE FLOW AND BEGINS TO
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING FOR VFR CONDITIONS. WEST WINDS 10-15KTS
WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR WILL BE WITH LOW
PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 111940
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
240 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SNOW CHANCES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF THRU THE
EVE AS MDL PROGGED AND OBSERVED UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW LWRG TEMP
INVERSIONS...AND WKNG LAPSE RATES. BLDG HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
BRING CLRG SKIES TONIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD AVG AROUND 15 DEG BELOW
SEASONAL LVLS USING THE LATEST NR TERM CONSENSUS BLENDED
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LWR OH VLY/MID ATLANTIC
RGN FRI BRINGING INCRG LGT SNOW CHCS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...IS EXPD TO CROSS THE RGN FRI EVE WITH
BETTER CHCS FOR SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
UNDER UPR TROFG AND LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT LATER FRI NGT AND
SAT...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPD TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA AS DRY ARCTIC AIR RESULTS IN UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE CONTENT
IN THE SNOW GROWTH RGN. BLDG HIGH PRESSURE SAT NGT/SUN SHOULD
BRING DRY WEATHER.

WIND WITH SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT AND COLD TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT
THRU SOMETIME SAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADVISORY LVL WIND CHILLS
ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA. DIMINISHING WINDS MAY PROVIDE FOR LESSER
CHCS OF WIND CHILL ADVISORIES SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...THOUGH TEMPS NR
OR BELOW ZERO ARE EXPD. TEMPS WERE MODIFIED SLIGHTLY FROM
SUPERBLENDED GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES MOVE TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES
TO START THE WEEK. MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FOR SOUTHERN
STREAM STORM SYSTEM INTENSIFYING AND MOVING NORTHEAST LATER
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WPC PROGS AND
THE SUPERBLEND...WITH HIGHEST POPS INTO THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY WITH
CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE SEASONAL NORM. HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO GIVE A DRY DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL GIVE MVFR AT TIMES FOR NRN PORTS INTO
LATE AFTERNOON...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE TURNS THE FLOW AND BEGINS TO
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING FOR VFR CONDITIONS. WEST WINDS 10-15KTS
WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR WILL BE WITH LOW
PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 111700
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1200 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END LATER TODAY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
A FRIDAY COLD FRONT WILL RETURN SNOW CHANCES...WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UNORGANIZED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATER
TODAY AS MDL PROGGED AND OBSERVED UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW LWRG
TEMP INVERSIONS. WHILE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN SOME
AREAS...ADDNL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPD TO BE MAINLY LESS THAN AN
INCH AND THUS CANCELLED THE REMAINING ADVISORY. BLDG HIGH PRESSURE
LT TODAY/TONIGHT SHOULD BRING CLRG SKIES. TEMPS 15 TO 20 DEG BELOW
AVG ARE EXPD USING THE LATEST NR TERM CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO APPROACH FRI BRINGING INCRG SNOW
SHOWER CHCS. THIS WAVE IS EXPD TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT
LT FRI. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE UNDER UPR TROFG AND
LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT FRI NGT AND SAT...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPD TO REMAIN BELOW ADVY CRITERIA AS DRY ARCTIC AIR RESULTS
IN UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE SNOW GROWTH RGN. BLDG HIGH
PRESSURE SUN SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER.

WIND WITH SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT AND COLD TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADVISORY LVL WIND CHILLS ACRS MUCH
OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...WELL BELOW AVG TEMPS ARE EXPD WITH
READINGS NR OR BELOW ZERO SAT NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS STILL HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
MOVING IN SUNDAY NIGHT. TIMING IS NOW FAIRLY CONSISTENT ACROSS THE
GUIDANCE...BUT THE ECMWF QUICKLY WEAKENS THE WAVE UPON ARRIVAL.
STILL...EXPECTING AT LEAST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY.

MODELS NOW SHOW ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE IN THE WAKE OF THE MONDAY
SYSTEM. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK INTO
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY. WILL
NEED SEVERAL MORE MODEL CYCLE TO SORT OUT THOSE DETAILS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL GIVE MVFR AT TIMES FOR NRN PORTS INTO
LATE AFTERNOON...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE TURNS THE FLOW AND BEGINS TO
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING FOR VFR CONDITIONS. WEST WINDS 10-15KTS
WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR WILL BE WITH LOW
PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 111700
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1200 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END LATER TODAY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
A FRIDAY COLD FRONT WILL RETURN SNOW CHANCES...WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UNORGANIZED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATER
TODAY AS MDL PROGGED AND OBSERVED UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW LWRG
TEMP INVERSIONS. WHILE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN SOME
AREAS...ADDNL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPD TO BE MAINLY LESS THAN AN
INCH AND THUS CANCELLED THE REMAINING ADVISORY. BLDG HIGH PRESSURE
LT TODAY/TONIGHT SHOULD BRING CLRG SKIES. TEMPS 15 TO 20 DEG BELOW
AVG ARE EXPD USING THE LATEST NR TERM CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO APPROACH FRI BRINGING INCRG SNOW
SHOWER CHCS. THIS WAVE IS EXPD TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT
LT FRI. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE UNDER UPR TROFG AND
LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT FRI NGT AND SAT...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPD TO REMAIN BELOW ADVY CRITERIA AS DRY ARCTIC AIR RESULTS
IN UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE SNOW GROWTH RGN. BLDG HIGH
PRESSURE SUN SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER.

WIND WITH SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT AND COLD TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADVISORY LVL WIND CHILLS ACRS MUCH
OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...WELL BELOW AVG TEMPS ARE EXPD WITH
READINGS NR OR BELOW ZERO SAT NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS STILL HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
MOVING IN SUNDAY NIGHT. TIMING IS NOW FAIRLY CONSISTENT ACROSS THE
GUIDANCE...BUT THE ECMWF QUICKLY WEAKENS THE WAVE UPON ARRIVAL.
STILL...EXPECTING AT LEAST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY.

MODELS NOW SHOW ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE IN THE WAKE OF THE MONDAY
SYSTEM. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK INTO
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY. WILL
NEED SEVERAL MORE MODEL CYCLE TO SORT OUT THOSE DETAILS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL GIVE MVFR AT TIMES FOR NRN PORTS INTO
LATE AFTERNOON...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE TURNS THE FLOW AND BEGINS TO
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING FOR VFR CONDITIONS. WEST WINDS 10-15KTS
WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR WILL BE WITH LOW
PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 111700
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1200 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END LATER TODAY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
A FRIDAY COLD FRONT WILL RETURN SNOW CHANCES...WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UNORGANIZED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATER
TODAY AS MDL PROGGED AND OBSERVED UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW LWRG
TEMP INVERSIONS. WHILE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN SOME
AREAS...ADDNL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPD TO BE MAINLY LESS THAN AN
INCH AND THUS CANCELLED THE REMAINING ADVISORY. BLDG HIGH PRESSURE
LT TODAY/TONIGHT SHOULD BRING CLRG SKIES. TEMPS 15 TO 20 DEG BELOW
AVG ARE EXPD USING THE LATEST NR TERM CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO APPROACH FRI BRINGING INCRG SNOW
SHOWER CHCS. THIS WAVE IS EXPD TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT
LT FRI. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE UNDER UPR TROFG AND
LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT FRI NGT AND SAT...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPD TO REMAIN BELOW ADVY CRITERIA AS DRY ARCTIC AIR RESULTS
IN UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE SNOW GROWTH RGN. BLDG HIGH
PRESSURE SUN SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER.

WIND WITH SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT AND COLD TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADVISORY LVL WIND CHILLS ACRS MUCH
OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...WELL BELOW AVG TEMPS ARE EXPD WITH
READINGS NR OR BELOW ZERO SAT NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS STILL HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
MOVING IN SUNDAY NIGHT. TIMING IS NOW FAIRLY CONSISTENT ACROSS THE
GUIDANCE...BUT THE ECMWF QUICKLY WEAKENS THE WAVE UPON ARRIVAL.
STILL...EXPECTING AT LEAST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY.

MODELS NOW SHOW ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE IN THE WAKE OF THE MONDAY
SYSTEM. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK INTO
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY. WILL
NEED SEVERAL MORE MODEL CYCLE TO SORT OUT THOSE DETAILS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL GIVE MVFR AT TIMES FOR NRN PORTS INTO
LATE AFTERNOON...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE TURNS THE FLOW AND BEGINS TO
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING FOR VFR CONDITIONS. WEST WINDS 10-15KTS
WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR WILL BE WITH LOW
PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 111610
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1110 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END LATER TODAY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
A FRIDAY COLD FRONT WILL RETURN SNOW CHANCES...WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UNORGANIZED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATER
TODAY AS MDL PROGGED AND OBSERVED UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW LWRG
TEMP INVERSIONS. WHILE SNOW SHOWERS CONTIUNE IN SOME
AREAS...ADDNL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPD TO BE MAINLY LESS THAN AN
INCH AND THUS CANCELLED THE REMAINING ADVISORY. BLDG HIGH
PRESSURE LT TODAY/TONIGHT SHOULD BRING CLRG SKIES. TEMPS 15 TO 20
DEG BELOW AVG ARE EXPD USING THE LATEST NR TERM CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO APPROACH FRI BRINGING INCRG SNOW
SHOWER CHCS. THIS WAVE IS EXPD TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT
LT FRI. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE UNDER UPR TROFG AND
LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT FRI NGT AND SAT...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPD TO REMAIN BELOW ADVY CRITERIA AS DRY ARCTIC AIR RESULTS
IN UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE SNOW GROWTH RGN. BLDG HIGH
PRESSURE SUN SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER.

WIND WITH SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT AND COLD TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADVISORY LVL WIND CHILLS ACRS MUCH
OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...WELL BELOW AVG TEMPS ARE EXPD WITH
READINGS NR OR BELOW ZERO SAT NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS STILL HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
MOVING IN SUNDAY NIGHT. TIMING IS NOW FAIRLY CONSISTENT ACROSS THE
GUIDANCE...BUT THE ECMWF QUICKLY WEAKENS THE WAVE UPON ARRIVAL.
STILL...EXPECTING AT LEAST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY.

MODELS NOW SHOW ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE IN THE WAKE OF THE MONDAY
SYSTEM. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK INTO
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY. WILL
NEED SEVERAL MORE MODEL CYCLE TO SORT OUT THOSE DETAILS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW SQUALLS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BETWEEN KBVI AND KFKL THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. LOCAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
MOST SITES...HOWEVER NO HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD AFFECT ANY
SITE. CIGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY AT MOST SITES BY TONIGHT

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER
COLD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING. WHILE THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY SHOULD
BE GENERALLY DRY...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 111610
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1110 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END LATER TODAY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
A FRIDAY COLD FRONT WILL RETURN SNOW CHANCES...WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UNORGANIZED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATER
TODAY AS MDL PROGGED AND OBSERVED UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW LWRG
TEMP INVERSIONS. WHILE SNOW SHOWERS CONTIUNE IN SOME
AREAS...ADDNL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPD TO BE MAINLY LESS THAN AN
INCH AND THUS CANCELLED THE REMAINING ADVISORY. BLDG HIGH
PRESSURE LT TODAY/TONIGHT SHOULD BRING CLRG SKIES. TEMPS 15 TO 20
DEG BELOW AVG ARE EXPD USING THE LATEST NR TERM CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO APPROACH FRI BRINGING INCRG SNOW
SHOWER CHCS. THIS WAVE IS EXPD TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT
LT FRI. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE UNDER UPR TROFG AND
LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT FRI NGT AND SAT...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPD TO REMAIN BELOW ADVY CRITERIA AS DRY ARCTIC AIR RESULTS
IN UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE SNOW GROWTH RGN. BLDG HIGH
PRESSURE SUN SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER.

WIND WITH SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT AND COLD TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADVISORY LVL WIND CHILLS ACRS MUCH
OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...WELL BELOW AVG TEMPS ARE EXPD WITH
READINGS NR OR BELOW ZERO SAT NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS STILL HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
MOVING IN SUNDAY NIGHT. TIMING IS NOW FAIRLY CONSISTENT ACROSS THE
GUIDANCE...BUT THE ECMWF QUICKLY WEAKENS THE WAVE UPON ARRIVAL.
STILL...EXPECTING AT LEAST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY.

MODELS NOW SHOW ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE IN THE WAKE OF THE MONDAY
SYSTEM. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK INTO
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY. WILL
NEED SEVERAL MORE MODEL CYCLE TO SORT OUT THOSE DETAILS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW SQUALLS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BETWEEN KBVI AND KFKL THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. LOCAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
MOST SITES...HOWEVER NO HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD AFFECT ANY
SITE. CIGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY AT MOST SITES BY TONIGHT

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER
COLD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING. WHILE THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY SHOULD
BE GENERALLY DRY...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 111610
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1110 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END LATER TODAY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
A FRIDAY COLD FRONT WILL RETURN SNOW CHANCES...WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UNORGANIZED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATER
TODAY AS MDL PROGGED AND OBSERVED UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW LWRG
TEMP INVERSIONS. WHILE SNOW SHOWERS CONTIUNE IN SOME
AREAS...ADDNL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPD TO BE MAINLY LESS THAN AN
INCH AND THUS CANCELLED THE REMAINING ADVISORY. BLDG HIGH
PRESSURE LT TODAY/TONIGHT SHOULD BRING CLRG SKIES. TEMPS 15 TO 20
DEG BELOW AVG ARE EXPD USING THE LATEST NR TERM CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO APPROACH FRI BRINGING INCRG SNOW
SHOWER CHCS. THIS WAVE IS EXPD TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT
LT FRI. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE UNDER UPR TROFG AND
LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT FRI NGT AND SAT...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPD TO REMAIN BELOW ADVY CRITERIA AS DRY ARCTIC AIR RESULTS
IN UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE SNOW GROWTH RGN. BLDG HIGH
PRESSURE SUN SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER.

WIND WITH SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT AND COLD TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADVISORY LVL WIND CHILLS ACRS MUCH
OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...WELL BELOW AVG TEMPS ARE EXPD WITH
READINGS NR OR BELOW ZERO SAT NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS STILL HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
MOVING IN SUNDAY NIGHT. TIMING IS NOW FAIRLY CONSISTENT ACROSS THE
GUIDANCE...BUT THE ECMWF QUICKLY WEAKENS THE WAVE UPON ARRIVAL.
STILL...EXPECTING AT LEAST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY.

MODELS NOW SHOW ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE IN THE WAKE OF THE MONDAY
SYSTEM. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK INTO
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY. WILL
NEED SEVERAL MORE MODEL CYCLE TO SORT OUT THOSE DETAILS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW SQUALLS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BETWEEN KBVI AND KFKL THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. LOCAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
MOST SITES...HOWEVER NO HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD AFFECT ANY
SITE. CIGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY AT MOST SITES BY TONIGHT

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER
COLD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING. WHILE THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY SHOULD
BE GENERALLY DRY...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 111331
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
831 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF TODAY BEFORE RETURNING WITH A FRIDAY
COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NMRS SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONT THIS MRNG
BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF LATER TODAY. MDL PROGGED AND
OBSERVED UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW LWRG TEMP INVERSIONS...WITH THE
UPR TROF SHIFTING E. ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL EXPD N OF I 80 AND IN
THE RIDGES WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVY CONTINUES. BLDG HIGH
PRESSURE LT TODAY/TONIGHT SHOULD BRING CLRG SKIES. TEMPS 15 TO 20
DEG BELOW AVG ARE EXPD USING THE LATEST NR TERM CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO APPROACH FRI BRINGING INCRG SNOW
SHOWER CHCS. THIS WAVE IS EXPD TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT
LT FRI. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE UNDER UPR TROFG AND
LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT FRI NGT AND SAT...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPD TO REMAIN BELOW ADVY CRITERIA AS DRY ARCTIC AIR RESULTS
IN UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE SNOW GROWTH RGN. BLDG HIGH
PRESSURE SUN SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER.

WIND WITH SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT AND COLD TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADVISORY LVL WIND CHILLS ACRS MUCH
OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...WELL BELOW AVG TEMPS ARE EXPD WITH
READINGS NR OR BELOW ZERO SAT NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS STILL HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
MOVING IN SUNDAY NIGHT. TIMING IS NOW FAIRLY CONSISTENT ACROSS THE
GUIDANCE...BUT THE ECMWF QUICKLY WEAKENS THE WAVE UPON ARRIVAL.
STILL...EXPECTING AT LEAST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY.

MODELS NOW SHOW ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE IN THE WAKE OF THE MONDAY
SYSTEM. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK INTO
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY. WILL
NEED SEVERAL MORE MODEL CYCLE TO SORT OUT THOSE DETAILS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW SQUALLS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BETWEEN KBVI AND KFKL THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. LOCAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
MOST SITES...HOWEVER NO HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD AFFECT ANY
SITE. CIGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY AT MOST SITES BY TONIGHT

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER
COLD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING. WHILE THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY SHOULD
BE GENERALLY DRY...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ008-
     009-074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ510>514.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 111331
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
831 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF TODAY BEFORE RETURNING WITH A FRIDAY
COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NMRS SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONT THIS MRNG
BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF LATER TODAY. MDL PROGGED AND
OBSERVED UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW LWRG TEMP INVERSIONS...WITH THE
UPR TROF SHIFTING E. ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL EXPD N OF I 80 AND IN
THE RIDGES WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVY CONTINUES. BLDG HIGH
PRESSURE LT TODAY/TONIGHT SHOULD BRING CLRG SKIES. TEMPS 15 TO 20
DEG BELOW AVG ARE EXPD USING THE LATEST NR TERM CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO APPROACH FRI BRINGING INCRG SNOW
SHOWER CHCS. THIS WAVE IS EXPD TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT
LT FRI. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE UNDER UPR TROFG AND
LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT FRI NGT AND SAT...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPD TO REMAIN BELOW ADVY CRITERIA AS DRY ARCTIC AIR RESULTS
IN UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE SNOW GROWTH RGN. BLDG HIGH
PRESSURE SUN SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER.

WIND WITH SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT AND COLD TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADVISORY LVL WIND CHILLS ACRS MUCH
OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...WELL BELOW AVG TEMPS ARE EXPD WITH
READINGS NR OR BELOW ZERO SAT NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS STILL HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
MOVING IN SUNDAY NIGHT. TIMING IS NOW FAIRLY CONSISTENT ACROSS THE
GUIDANCE...BUT THE ECMWF QUICKLY WEAKENS THE WAVE UPON ARRIVAL.
STILL...EXPECTING AT LEAST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY.

MODELS NOW SHOW ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE IN THE WAKE OF THE MONDAY
SYSTEM. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK INTO
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY. WILL
NEED SEVERAL MORE MODEL CYCLE TO SORT OUT THOSE DETAILS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW SQUALLS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BETWEEN KBVI AND KFKL THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. LOCAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
MOST SITES...HOWEVER NO HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD AFFECT ANY
SITE. CIGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY AT MOST SITES BY TONIGHT

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER
COLD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING. WHILE THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY SHOULD
BE GENERALLY DRY...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ008-
     009-074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ510>514.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 111331
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
831 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF TODAY BEFORE RETURNING WITH A FRIDAY
COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NMRS SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONT THIS MRNG
BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF LATER TODAY. MDL PROGGED AND
OBSERVED UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW LWRG TEMP INVERSIONS...WITH THE
UPR TROF SHIFTING E. ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL EXPD N OF I 80 AND IN
THE RIDGES WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVY CONTINUES. BLDG HIGH
PRESSURE LT TODAY/TONIGHT SHOULD BRING CLRG SKIES. TEMPS 15 TO 20
DEG BELOW AVG ARE EXPD USING THE LATEST NR TERM CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO APPROACH FRI BRINGING INCRG SNOW
SHOWER CHCS. THIS WAVE IS EXPD TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT
LT FRI. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE UNDER UPR TROFG AND
LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT FRI NGT AND SAT...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPD TO REMAIN BELOW ADVY CRITERIA AS DRY ARCTIC AIR RESULTS
IN UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE SNOW GROWTH RGN. BLDG HIGH
PRESSURE SUN SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER.

WIND WITH SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT AND COLD TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADVISORY LVL WIND CHILLS ACRS MUCH
OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...WELL BELOW AVG TEMPS ARE EXPD WITH
READINGS NR OR BELOW ZERO SAT NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS STILL HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
MOVING IN SUNDAY NIGHT. TIMING IS NOW FAIRLY CONSISTENT ACROSS THE
GUIDANCE...BUT THE ECMWF QUICKLY WEAKENS THE WAVE UPON ARRIVAL.
STILL...EXPECTING AT LEAST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY.

MODELS NOW SHOW ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE IN THE WAKE OF THE MONDAY
SYSTEM. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK INTO
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY. WILL
NEED SEVERAL MORE MODEL CYCLE TO SORT OUT THOSE DETAILS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW SQUALLS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BETWEEN KBVI AND KFKL THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. LOCAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
MOST SITES...HOWEVER NO HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD AFFECT ANY
SITE. CIGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY AT MOST SITES BY TONIGHT

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER
COLD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING. WHILE THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY SHOULD
BE GENERALLY DRY...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ008-
     009-074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ510>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 111021
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
521 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH BITTER COLD TO START THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UNSTABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS BEGUN TO BE OVERCOME BY DRY
CANADIAN AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE PREVIOUS
SNOW SQUALL ACTIVITY THAT WAS LARGELY SITUATED ALONG A LOW LEVEL
DEFORMATION AXIS HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED AND BECOME MORE CELLULAR
AS FLOW HAS BECOME MORE UNI-DIRECATIONAL EARLY THIS MORNING. GOING
FORWARD...THE ONLY PLACE WHERE THIS MAY NOT ENTIRELY BE THE CASE
OUTSIDE THE RIDGES IS IN FOREST AND VENANGO COUNTIES. HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BANDING FROM LAKE HURON WILL TREND
SOUTHWARD LATE THIS MORNING. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A MULTI-LAKE
FETCH TO BRING SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE HURON...ACROSS LAKE
ERIE...AND INTO THE FAR NORTHEASTERN REACHES OF THE CWA. THUS POPS
AND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED HERE TO
ASCERTAIN WHETHER THIS DEVELOPMENT DOES OCCUR.

IN THE RIDGES...VISIBILITIES HAVE CONTINUED TO GENERALLY BE
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 MILES THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY THIS
MORNING. A PERIOD OF A ENHANCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
LIKELY AS FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST...HOWEVER WEAKENING
SATURATION WILL MEAN LESS EFFICIENT SNOW GENERATION BY AFTERNOON.
THUS A FEW MORE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE RIDGES...HOWEVER
TRENDS BY AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO TAPER
OFF.

ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE PRESENT...HOWEVER
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT/LOCAL AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA. IN FACT...GOING INTO THE NIGHTTIME TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW
STARTS TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AND TURN A BIT TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS WILL LIKELY ERADICATE BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES...AND ALLOW
FOR DECENT TEMPERATURE FALLS. THEY WILL LIKELY BE TEMPERED BY
MORNING AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE...HOWEVER SINGLE DIGITS
WILL LIKELY STILL BE COMMON WITH WIND CHILLS INCREMENTALLY BELOW
ZERO. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY BEGINS DRY AND COLD AS HIGH PRESSURE TEMPORARILY CUTS OFF
THE SNOW PRODUCTION. DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPS THE DOOR TO
COLDER AIR WIDE OPEN...SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
AVERAGE.

MULTIPLE UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL SLIDE OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...PASSING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE PINWHEELING VORTEX IN
CANADA. THE FIRST WEAKER WAVE WILL DIVE TO OUR SOUTH ON THE FRONT
OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK. THIS WILL BRING LITTLE MORE THAN
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
MIDDAY FRIDAY. A MORE POTENT WAVE WILL THEN DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...RE-INVIGORATING SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SQUALLS AGAIN LOOK
POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT. LARGELY LEFT SNOW
TOTALS INTACT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH LOOKS TO BE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED MODERATE SNOW BANDS...WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
IN THE BASE OF THE LOW. SUSTAINED WINDS GREATER THAN 10KTS...AND
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY SATURDAY MORNING WILL
LIKELY NECESSITATE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AT LEAST FOR THE RIDGES
AND ALONG THE NORTH.

SNOW SHOULD TAPER DOWN ACROSS THE WEST SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
AXIS OF THE TROUGH SHIFTS TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER...WITH VERY COLD
AIR PASSING OVER THE STILL UNFROZEN WATERS OF THE GREAT
LAKES...ADDITIONAL LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWING NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP AN AREA OF
CONVERGENCE DOWN WIND OF LAKE ERIE. WITH A FAVORABLE HURON-TO-
ERIE CONNECTION...LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
OUR NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LEFT SNOW TOTALS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY BROAD AND ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH HOPES FUTURE
MODEL RUNS WILL BETTER RESOLVE THE SNOW BAND LOCATION.

THE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE BARRAGE OF ARCTIC
AIR INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY...WITH A LOW CELLING FOR HIGH TEMPS
EXPECTED. MANY LOCATIONS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS
ALL DAY SATURDAY. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL AGAIN BE LIKELY
HEADING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...EVEN AS THE WINDS
SLACKEN.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BEGIN DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN MAKE A
TEMPORARY VISIT TO THE REGION. MODELS STILL HAVING SOME
DIFFICULTY WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING IN SUNDAY NIGHT.
TIMING IS NOW FAIRLY CONSISTENT ACROSS THE GUIDANCE...BUT THE
ECMWF QUICKLY WEAKENS THE WAVE UPON ARRIVAL. STILL...EXPECTING
AT LEAST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY.

MODELS NOW SHOW ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE IN THE WAKE OF THE MONDAY
SYSTEM. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK INTO
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY. WILL
NEED SEVERAL MORE MODEL CYCLE TO SORT OUT THOSE DETAILS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW SQUALLS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BETWEEN KBVI AND KFKL THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. LOCAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
MOST SITES...HOWEVER NO HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD AFFECT ANY
SITE. CIGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY AT MOST SITES BY TONIGHT

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER
COLD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING. WHILE THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ008-
     009-074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ510>514.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 111021
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
521 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH BITTER COLD TO START THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UNSTABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS BEGUN TO BE OVERCOME BY DRY
CANADIAN AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE PREVIOUS
SNOW SQUALL ACTIVITY THAT WAS LARGELY SITUATED ALONG A LOW LEVEL
DEFORMATION AXIS HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED AND BECOME MORE CELLULAR
AS FLOW HAS BECOME MORE UNI-DIRECATIONAL EARLY THIS MORNING. GOING
FORWARD...THE ONLY PLACE WHERE THIS MAY NOT ENTIRELY BE THE CASE
OUTSIDE THE RIDGES IS IN FOREST AND VENANGO COUNTIES. HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BANDING FROM LAKE HURON WILL TREND
SOUTHWARD LATE THIS MORNING. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A MULTI-LAKE
FETCH TO BRING SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE HURON...ACROSS LAKE
ERIE...AND INTO THE FAR NORTHEASTERN REACHES OF THE CWA. THUS POPS
AND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED HERE TO
ASCERTAIN WHETHER THIS DEVELOPMENT DOES OCCUR.

IN THE RIDGES...VISIBILITIES HAVE CONTINUED TO GENERALLY BE
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 MILES THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY THIS
MORNING. A PERIOD OF A ENHANCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
LIKELY AS FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST...HOWEVER WEAKENING
SATURATION WILL MEAN LESS EFFICIENT SNOW GENERATION BY AFTERNOON.
THUS A FEW MORE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE RIDGES...HOWEVER
TRENDS BY AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO TAPER
OFF.

ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE PRESENT...HOWEVER
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT/LOCAL AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA. IN FACT...GOING INTO THE NIGHTTIME TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW
STARTS TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AND TURN A BIT TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS WILL LIKELY ERADICATE BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES...AND ALLOW
FOR DECENT TEMPERATURE FALLS. THEY WILL LIKELY BE TEMPERED BY
MORNING AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE...HOWEVER SINGLE DIGITS
WILL LIKELY STILL BE COMMON WITH WIND CHILLS INCREMENTALLY BELOW
ZERO. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY BEGINS DRY AND COLD AS HIGH PRESSURE TEMPORARILY CUTS OFF
THE SNOW PRODUCTION. DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPS THE DOOR TO
COLDER AIR WIDE OPEN...SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
AVERAGE.

MULTIPLE UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL SLIDE OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...PASSING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE PINWHEELING VORTEX IN
CANADA. THE FIRST WEAKER WAVE WILL DIVE TO OUR SOUTH ON THE FRONT
OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK. THIS WILL BRING LITTLE MORE THAN
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
MIDDAY FRIDAY. A MORE POTENT WAVE WILL THEN DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...RE-INVIGORATING SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SQUALLS AGAIN LOOK
POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT. LARGELY LEFT SNOW
TOTALS INTACT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH LOOKS TO BE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED MODERATE SNOW BANDS...WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
IN THE BASE OF THE LOW. SUSTAINED WINDS GREATER THAN 10KTS...AND
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY SATURDAY MORNING WILL
LIKELY NECESSITATE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AT LEAST FOR THE RIDGES
AND ALONG THE NORTH.

SNOW SHOULD TAPER DOWN ACROSS THE WEST SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
AXIS OF THE TROUGH SHIFTS TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER...WITH VERY COLD
AIR PASSING OVER THE STILL UNFROZEN WATERS OF THE GREAT
LAKES...ADDITIONAL LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWING NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP AN AREA OF
CONVERGENCE DOWN WIND OF LAKE ERIE. WITH A FAVORABLE HURON-TO-
ERIE CONNECTION...LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
OUR NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LEFT SNOW TOTALS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY BROAD AND ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH HOPES FUTURE
MODEL RUNS WILL BETTER RESOLVE THE SNOW BAND LOCATION.

THE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE BARRAGE OF ARCTIC
AIR INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY...WITH A LOW CELLING FOR HIGH TEMPS
EXPECTED. MANY LOCATIONS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS
ALL DAY SATURDAY. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL AGAIN BE LIKELY
HEADING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...EVEN AS THE WINDS
SLACKEN.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BEGIN DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN MAKE A
TEMPORARY VISIT TO THE REGION. MODELS STILL HAVING SOME
DIFFICULTY WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING IN SUNDAY NIGHT.
TIMING IS NOW FAIRLY CONSISTENT ACROSS THE GUIDANCE...BUT THE
ECMWF QUICKLY WEAKENS THE WAVE UPON ARRIVAL. STILL...EXPECTING
AT LEAST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY.

MODELS NOW SHOW ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE IN THE WAKE OF THE MONDAY
SYSTEM. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK INTO
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY. WILL
NEED SEVERAL MORE MODEL CYCLE TO SORT OUT THOSE DETAILS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW SQUALLS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BETWEEN KBVI AND KFKL THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. LOCAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
MOST SITES...HOWEVER NO HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD AFFECT ANY
SITE. CIGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY AT MOST SITES BY TONIGHT

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER
COLD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING. WHILE THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ008-
     009-074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ510>514.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 111021
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
521 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH BITTER COLD TO START THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UNSTABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS BEGUN TO BE OVERCOME BY DRY
CANADIAN AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE PREVIOUS
SNOW SQUALL ACTIVITY THAT WAS LARGELY SITUATED ALONG A LOW LEVEL
DEFORMATION AXIS HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED AND BECOME MORE CELLULAR
AS FLOW HAS BECOME MORE UNI-DIRECATIONAL EARLY THIS MORNING. GOING
FORWARD...THE ONLY PLACE WHERE THIS MAY NOT ENTIRELY BE THE CASE
OUTSIDE THE RIDGES IS IN FOREST AND VENANGO COUNTIES. HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BANDING FROM LAKE HURON WILL TREND
SOUTHWARD LATE THIS MORNING. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A MULTI-LAKE
FETCH TO BRING SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE HURON...ACROSS LAKE
ERIE...AND INTO THE FAR NORTHEASTERN REACHES OF THE CWA. THUS POPS
AND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED HERE TO
ASCERTAIN WHETHER THIS DEVELOPMENT DOES OCCUR.

IN THE RIDGES...VISIBILITIES HAVE CONTINUED TO GENERALLY BE
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 MILES THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY THIS
MORNING. A PERIOD OF A ENHANCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
LIKELY AS FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST...HOWEVER WEAKENING
SATURATION WILL MEAN LESS EFFICIENT SNOW GENERATION BY AFTERNOON.
THUS A FEW MORE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE RIDGES...HOWEVER
TRENDS BY AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO TAPER
OFF.

ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE PRESENT...HOWEVER
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT/LOCAL AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA. IN FACT...GOING INTO THE NIGHTTIME TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW
STARTS TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AND TURN A BIT TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS WILL LIKELY ERADICATE BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES...AND ALLOW
FOR DECENT TEMPERATURE FALLS. THEY WILL LIKELY BE TEMPERED BY
MORNING AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE...HOWEVER SINGLE DIGITS
WILL LIKELY STILL BE COMMON WITH WIND CHILLS INCREMENTALLY BELOW
ZERO. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY BEGINS DRY AND COLD AS HIGH PRESSURE TEMPORARILY CUTS OFF
THE SNOW PRODUCTION. DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPS THE DOOR TO
COLDER AIR WIDE OPEN...SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
AVERAGE.

MULTIPLE UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL SLIDE OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...PASSING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE PINWHEELING VORTEX IN
CANADA. THE FIRST WEAKER WAVE WILL DIVE TO OUR SOUTH ON THE FRONT
OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK. THIS WILL BRING LITTLE MORE THAN
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
MIDDAY FRIDAY. A MORE POTENT WAVE WILL THEN DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...RE-INVIGORATING SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SQUALLS AGAIN LOOK
POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT. LARGELY LEFT SNOW
TOTALS INTACT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH LOOKS TO BE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED MODERATE SNOW BANDS...WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
IN THE BASE OF THE LOW. SUSTAINED WINDS GREATER THAN 10KTS...AND
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY SATURDAY MORNING WILL
LIKELY NECESSITATE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AT LEAST FOR THE RIDGES
AND ALONG THE NORTH.

SNOW SHOULD TAPER DOWN ACROSS THE WEST SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
AXIS OF THE TROUGH SHIFTS TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER...WITH VERY COLD
AIR PASSING OVER THE STILL UNFROZEN WATERS OF THE GREAT
LAKES...ADDITIONAL LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWING NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP AN AREA OF
CONVERGENCE DOWN WIND OF LAKE ERIE. WITH A FAVORABLE HURON-TO-
ERIE CONNECTION...LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
OUR NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LEFT SNOW TOTALS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY BROAD AND ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH HOPES FUTURE
MODEL RUNS WILL BETTER RESOLVE THE SNOW BAND LOCATION.

THE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE BARRAGE OF ARCTIC
AIR INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY...WITH A LOW CELLING FOR HIGH TEMPS
EXPECTED. MANY LOCATIONS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS
ALL DAY SATURDAY. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL AGAIN BE LIKELY
HEADING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...EVEN AS THE WINDS
SLACKEN.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BEGIN DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN MAKE A
TEMPORARY VISIT TO THE REGION. MODELS STILL HAVING SOME
DIFFICULTY WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING IN SUNDAY NIGHT.
TIMING IS NOW FAIRLY CONSISTENT ACROSS THE GUIDANCE...BUT THE
ECMWF QUICKLY WEAKENS THE WAVE UPON ARRIVAL. STILL...EXPECTING
AT LEAST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY.

MODELS NOW SHOW ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE IN THE WAKE OF THE MONDAY
SYSTEM. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK INTO
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY. WILL
NEED SEVERAL MORE MODEL CYCLE TO SORT OUT THOSE DETAILS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW SQUALLS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BETWEEN KBVI AND KFKL THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. LOCAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
MOST SITES...HOWEVER NO HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD AFFECT ANY
SITE. CIGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY AT MOST SITES BY TONIGHT

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER
COLD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING. WHILE THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ008-
     009-074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ510>514.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 110935
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
435 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH BITTER COLD TO START THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL DEFORMATION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY EDGE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. GIVEN THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH THERMAL LAYER AND SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY IS
PRESENT...THIS AXIS OF DEFORMATION IS SUMMARILY CO-LOCATED WITH A
BAND OF SNOW SQUALLS THAT HAS PLAGUED THE AREA JUST SOUTH OF I-80
TOWARD THE TURNPIKE VIRTUALLY ALL NIGHT. AS THE MORNING
ENSUES...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THIS LAYER SHOULD START TO
SUBSIDE...AS FLOW TURNS MORE UNI-DIRECTIONALLY FROM THE
NORTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR FAR LESS DOMINANT BANDING ALONG
THIS AXIS...THUS ALLOWING FOR THE SQUALLS TO DIMINISH.
HOWEVER...IN THE INTERIM...A FEW MORE INCHES OF LOCAL ACCUMULATION
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG HIGHWAY 422.

ELSEWHERE...UNSTABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BE OVERCOME
BY DRY CANADIAN AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE ONLY
PLACE WHERE THIS MAY NOT ENTIRELY BE THE CASE IS IN FOREST AND
VENANGO COUNTIES. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BANDING FROM
LAKE HURON WILL TREND SOUTHWARD LATE THIS MORNING. THIS WOULD
ALLOW FOR A MULTI-LAKE FETCH TO BRING SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE
HURON...ACROSS LAKE ERIE...AND INTO THE FAR NORTHEASTERN REACHES
OF THE CWA. THUS POPS AND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE MAINTAINED HERE TO ASCERTAIN WHETHER THIS DEVELOPMENT DOES
OCCUR.

IN THE RIDGES...VISIBILITIES HAVE CONTINUED TO GENERALLY BE
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 MILES THROUGH THE NIGHT. A PERIOD OF A ENHANCED
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LIKELY AS FLOW TURNS TO THE
NORTHWEST...HOWEVER WEAKENING SATURATION WILL MEAN LESS EFFICIENT
SNOW GENERATION BY AFTERNOON. THUS A FEW MORE INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE RIDGES...HOWEVER TRENDS BY AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF.

ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE PRESENT...HOWEVER
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT/LOCAL AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA. IN FACT...GOING INTO THE NIGHTTIME TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW
STARTS TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AND TURN A BIT TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS WILL LIKELY ERADICATE BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES...AND ALLOW
FOR DECENT TEMPERATURE FALLS. THEY WILL LIKELY BE TEMPERED BY
MORNING AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE...HOWEVER SINGLE DIGITS
WILL LIKELY STILL BE COMMON WITH WIND CHILLS INCREMENTALLY BELOW
ZERO. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY BEGINS DRY AND COLD AS HIGH PRESSURE TEMPORARILY CUTS OFF
THE SNOW PRODUCTION. DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPS THE DOOR TO
COLDER AIR WIDE OPEN...SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
AVERAGE.

MULTIPLE UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL SLIDE OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...PASSING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE PINWHEELING VORTEX IN
CANADA. THE FIRST WEAKER WAVE WILL DIVE TO OUR SOUTH ON THE FRONT
OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK. THIS WILL BRING LITTLE MORE THAN
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
MIDDAY FRIDAY. A MORE POTENT WAVE WILL THEN DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...RE-INVIGORATING SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SQUALLS AGAIN LOOK
POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT. LARGELY LEFT SNOW
TOTALS INTACT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH LOOKS TO BE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED MODERATE SNOW BANDS...WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
IN THE BASE OF THE LOW. SUSTAINED WINDS GREATER THAN 10KTS...AND
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY SATURDAY MORNING WILL
LIKELY NECESSITATE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AT LEAST FOR THE RIDGES
AND ALONG THE NORTH.

SNOW SHOULD TAPER DOWN ACROSS THE WEST SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
AXIS OF THE TROUGH SHIFTS TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER...WITH VERY COLD
AIR PASSING OVER THE STILL UNFROZEN WATERS OF THE GREAT
LAKES...ADDITIONAL LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWING NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP AN AREA OF
CONVERGENCE DOWN WIND OF LAKE ERIE. WITH A FAVORABLE HURON-TO-
ERIE CONNECTION...LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
OUR NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LEFT SNOW TOTALS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY BROAD AND ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH HOPES FUTURE
MODEL RUNS WILL BETTER RESOLVE THE SNOW BAND LOCATION.

THE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE BARRAGE OF ARCTIC
AIR INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY...WITH A LOW CELLING FOR HIGH TEMPS
EXPECTED. MANY LOCATIONS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS
ALL DAY SATURDAY. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL AGAIN BE LIKELY
HEADING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...EVEN AS THE WINDS
SLACKEN.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BEGIN DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN MAKE A
TEMPORARY VISIT TO THE REGION. MODELS STILL HAVING SOME
DIFFICULTY WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING IN SUNDAY NIGHT.
TIMING IS NOW FAIRLY CONSISTENT ACROSS THE GUIDANCE...BUT THE
ECMWF QUICKLY WEAKENS THE WAVE UPON ARRIVAL. STILL...EXPECTING
AT LEAST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY.

MODELS NOW SHOW ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE IN THE WAKE OF THE MONDAY
SYSTEM. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK INTO
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY. WILL
NEED SEVERAL MORE MODEL CYCLE TO SORT OUT THOSE DETAILS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TAX


&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW SQUALLS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BETWEEN KBVI AND KFKL THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. LOCAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
MOST SITES...HOWEVER NO HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD AFFECT ANY
SITE. CIGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY AT MOST SITES BY TONIGHT

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER
COLD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING. WHILE THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ013-
     014-016-022-023.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ007>009-015-074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ510>514.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 110814
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
314 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH BITTER COLD TO START THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL DEFORMATION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY EDGE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. GIVEN THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH THERMAL LAYER AND SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY IS
PRESENT...THIS AXIS OF DEFORMATION IS SUMMARILY CO-LOCATED WITH A
BAND OF SNOW SQUALLS THAT HAS PLAGUED THE AREA JUST SOUTH OF I-80
TOWARD THE TURNPIKE VIRTUALLY ALL NIGHT. AS THE MORNING
ENSUES...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THIS LAYER SHOULD START TO
SUBSIDE...AS FLOW TURNS MORE UNI-DIRECTIONALLY FROM THE
NORTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR FAR LESS DOMINANT BANDING ALONG
THIS AXIS...THUS ALLOWING FOR THE SQUALLS TO DIMINISH.
HOWEVER...IN THE INTERIM...A FEW MORE INCHES OF LOCAL ACCUMULATION
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG HIGHWAY 422.

ELSEWHERE...UNSTABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BE OVERCOME
BY DRY CANADIAN AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE ONLY
PLACE WHERE THIS MAY NOT ENTIRELY BE THE CASE IS IN FOREST AND
VENANGO COUNTIES. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BANDING FROM
LAKE HURON WILL TREND SOUTHWARD LATE THIS MORNING. THIS WOULD
ALLOW FOR A MULTI-LAKE FETCH TO BRING SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE
HURON...ACROSS LAKE ERIE...AND INTO THE FAR NORTHEASTERN REACHES
OF THE CWA. THUS POPS AND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE MAINTAINED HERE TO ASCERTAIN WHETHER THIS DEVELOPMENT DOES
OCCUR.

IN THE RIDGES...VISIBILITIES HAVE CONTINUED TO GENERALLY BE
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 MILES THROUGH THE NIGHT. A PERIOD OF A ENHANCED
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LIKELY AS FLOW TURNS TO THE
NORTHWEST...HOWEVER WEAKENING SATURATION WILL MEAN LESS EFFICIENT
SNOW GENERATION BY AFTERNOON. THUS A FEW MORE INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE RIDGES...HOWEVER TRENDS BY AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF.

ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE PRESENT...HOWEVER
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT/LOCAL AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA. IN FACT...GOING INTO THE NIGHTTIME TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW
STARTS TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AND TURN A BIT TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS WILL LIKELY ERADICATE BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES...AND ALLOW
FOR DECENT TEMPERATURE FALLS. THEY WILL LIKELY BE TEMPERED BY
MORNING AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE...HOWEVER SINGLE DIGITS
WILL LIKELY STILL BE COMMON WITH WIND CHILLS INCREMENTALLY BELOW
ZERO. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
COLDER AIR WILL SURGE SOUTH LATER FRIDAY AS ARCTIC VORTEX DROPS
SOUTH. FRONT WILL CROSS REGION LATER FRIDAY WITH A ROUND OF SNOW
SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. BIGGER STORY WILL BE WIND CHILLS LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY 15 TO POSSIBLY 25 BELOW ZERO AS
WINDS REMAIN UP AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
HEADLINES FOR WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY.

SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH IT IS EARLY TO SORT OUT EFFECTS
OF FRESH SNOWPACK AND JUST HOW MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR
DUE TO CLEARING SKIES...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WINTER WITH
TEMPERATURES IN MANY LOCATIONS BELOW 0F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY
BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
MODELS ARE NOT IN AS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM TODAY AS THEY
WERE YESTERDAY...WITH SOME MODEL GUIDANCE NOW BRINGING IN THE
SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST INSTEAD OF THE WEST- NORTHWEST...WHICH
WOULD AFFECT BOTH COVERAGE AND TIMING OF ANY PRECIPITATION. WINDS
MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...WITH A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHING BY WEDNESDAY. WHILE SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE COLD...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO
APPROACH NORMAL VALUES AGAIN FOR THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW SQUALLS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BETWEEN KBVI AND KFKL THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. LOCAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
MOST SITES...HOWEVER NO HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD AFFECT ANY
SITE. CIGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY AT MOST SITES BY TONIGHT

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER
COLD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING. WHILE THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ013-
     014-016-022-023.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ007>009-015-074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ510>514.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 110344
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1044 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH BITTER COLD TO START THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BANDING BECOMING MORE
AND MORE DISORGANIZED. THE HRRR HAS ACTUALLY DONE PRETTY WELL WITH
BANDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT JUST CANT FULLY BUY IN ON THE
IDEA OF SNOW SHOWERS COMPLETELY DISSIPATING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH THE COMBO OF STILL WIDE OPEN GREAT LAKES AND ARCTIC AIR. NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO CURENT ADEVISORIES BUT MAY NEED TO THINK
ABOUT PULLING THEM EARLY IF TRENDS CONTINUE.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN TOMORROW BUT WITH A WINDOW OF MEAN
NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW SOME LAKE BANDS WILL CONTINUE NORTH WITH
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE RIDGES. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
LINE WITH NEWER MODELS...AND WITH WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED
OVERNIGHT WIND CHILLS IN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES WILL FALL TO 10 TO
15 BELOW ZERO TOWARD DAYBREAK. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY ON THE HIGH
SIDE BUT LITTLE CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL END SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WELL
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL SURGE SOUTH
LATER FRIDAY AS ARCTIC VORTEX DROPS SOUTH. FRONT WILL CROSS
REGION LATER FRIDAY WITH A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. BIGGER STORY WILL BE WIND CHILLS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY 15 TO POSSIBLY 25 BELOW ZERO AS WINDS REMAIN UP AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE  DIGITS. HEADLINES FOR WIND
CHILLS WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH IT IS EARLY TO SORT OUT EFFECTS
OF FRESH SNOWPACK AND JUST HOW MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR
DUE TO CLEARING SKIES...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WINTER WITH
TEMPERATURES IN MANY LOCATIONS BELOW 0F.

SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN BETWEEN
SUNDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODELS ARE NOT IN AS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM TODAY AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY...WITH SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE NOW BRINGING IN THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST INSTEAD OF
THE WEST-NORTHWEST...WHICH WOULD AFFECT BOTH COVERAGE AND TIMING
OF ANY PRECIPITATION. WINDS MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE SYSTEM...WITH A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHING BY
WEDNESDAY. WHILE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE
COLD...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH NORMAL VALUES AGAIN
FOR THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW SQUALL JUST NORTH OF BVI AND SOUTH OF DUJ WILL CONTINUE ITS
TREK SOUTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING...PER THE LATEST HRRR MODEL. THE
TIMING IS LINING UP WELL WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUN...SO TEMPO
GROUPS WERE ADJUSTED FOR LIFR CONDITIONS AT PIT...AGC...AND BVI.
THE HRRR DOESN`T HAVE THE BAND MAKING IT AS FAR SOUTH AS HLG BUT
WILL TREND TO DETERIORATING VISIBILITY ANYHOW.

ONCE THIS SNOW SQUALL PASSES...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME
IMPROVEMENT...AT LEAST IN VISIBILITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. A SW TO NW WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED TOWARD MORNING...WITH
UPSTREAM OBS BRINGING THE RETURN OF WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KTS. THIS
WILL RESUME THE CHANCE FOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS AND
OCCASIONALVISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN
TAF SITES. ELSEWHERE...GUIDANCE TRIES TO IMPROVE CONDITIONS BY
MIDDAY...AS A SURFACE RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD EASTWARD.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER
COLD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING. WHILE THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ041.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     015-074-076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ013-014-
     016-020>023-073-075.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ510>514.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 110344
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1044 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH BITTER COLD TO START THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BANDING BECOMING MORE
AND MORE DISORGANIZED. THE HRRR HAS ACTUALLY DONE PRETTY WELL WITH
BANDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT JUST CANT FULLY BUY IN ON THE
IDEA OF SNOW SHOWERS COMPLETELY DISSIPATING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH THE COMBO OF STILL WIDE OPEN GREAT LAKES AND ARCTIC AIR. NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO CURENT ADEVISORIES BUT MAY NEED TO THINK
ABOUT PULLING THEM EARLY IF TRENDS CONTINUE.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN TOMORROW BUT WITH A WINDOW OF MEAN
NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW SOME LAKE BANDS WILL CONTINUE NORTH WITH
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE RIDGES. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
LINE WITH NEWER MODELS...AND WITH WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED
OVERNIGHT WIND CHILLS IN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES WILL FALL TO 10 TO
15 BELOW ZERO TOWARD DAYBREAK. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY ON THE HIGH
SIDE BUT LITTLE CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL END SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WELL
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL SURGE SOUTH
LATER FRIDAY AS ARCTIC VORTEX DROPS SOUTH. FRONT WILL CROSS
REGION LATER FRIDAY WITH A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. BIGGER STORY WILL BE WIND CHILLS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY 15 TO POSSIBLY 25 BELOW ZERO AS WINDS REMAIN UP AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE  DIGITS. HEADLINES FOR WIND
CHILLS WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH IT IS EARLY TO SORT OUT EFFECTS
OF FRESH SNOWPACK AND JUST HOW MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR
DUE TO CLEARING SKIES...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WINTER WITH
TEMPERATURES IN MANY LOCATIONS BELOW 0F.

SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN BETWEEN
SUNDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODELS ARE NOT IN AS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM TODAY AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY...WITH SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE NOW BRINGING IN THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST INSTEAD OF
THE WEST-NORTHWEST...WHICH WOULD AFFECT BOTH COVERAGE AND TIMING
OF ANY PRECIPITATION. WINDS MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE SYSTEM...WITH A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHING BY
WEDNESDAY. WHILE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE
COLD...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH NORMAL VALUES AGAIN
FOR THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW SQUALL JUST NORTH OF BVI AND SOUTH OF DUJ WILL CONTINUE ITS
TREK SOUTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING...PER THE LATEST HRRR MODEL. THE
TIMING IS LINING UP WELL WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUN...SO TEMPO
GROUPS WERE ADJUSTED FOR LIFR CONDITIONS AT PIT...AGC...AND BVI.
THE HRRR DOESN`T HAVE THE BAND MAKING IT AS FAR SOUTH AS HLG BUT
WILL TREND TO DETERIORATING VISIBILITY ANYHOW.

ONCE THIS SNOW SQUALL PASSES...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME
IMPROVEMENT...AT LEAST IN VISIBILITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. A SW TO NW WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED TOWARD MORNING...WITH
UPSTREAM OBS BRINGING THE RETURN OF WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KTS. THIS
WILL RESUME THE CHANCE FOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS AND
OCCASIONALVISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN
TAF SITES. ELSEWHERE...GUIDANCE TRIES TO IMPROVE CONDITIONS BY
MIDDAY...AS A SURFACE RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD EASTWARD.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER
COLD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING. WHILE THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ041.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     015-074-076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ013-014-
     016-020>023-073-075.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ510>514.

&&

$$




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities