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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010122
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
922 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END EARLY TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT
PASSES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS EXITING THE RIDGES BY 01Z. ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS OHIO WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...SO HAVE LEFT
DIMINISHING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HAVE AGAIN
ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS AND DEW POINTS TOWARD LATEST TRENDS...WHICH
LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE AREA SAVE FOR THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND THE RIDGES MAY REMAIN DRY...AS SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMING TAKES PLACE ALOFT AND MIXING DRIES OUT THE SURFACE.
THIS MAY TAKE MOST OF THE DAY THOUGH...SO SOME SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY
MAY BE IN PLACE PER THE LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS.

IN ADDITION...THE 12Z GUIDANCE WANTS TO SHUNT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE AND A SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. HAVE PUSHED
CHANCE POPS SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THESE
TRENDS. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN WV THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDING
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY FROM KENTUCKY TO WEST VIRGINIA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STAY JUST BELOW OR NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE NOT NEEDED TO MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT COMPARED TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A
BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME DRY DAYS. HARD TO PINPOINT ANY
PARTICULAR POINT WHEN RAIN IS LIKELY...BUT SO FAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT SHIFT MUCH DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING...THOUGH AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM MAY BRUSH OH TERMINALS BEFORE MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING NEAR THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BRING MVFR/ISOLATED IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS CEILINGS LIFT AND EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT UNDER BUILDING
RIDGING.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
SOUTH OF PIT WITH A CROSSING DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010122
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
922 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END EARLY TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT
PASSES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS EXITING THE RIDGES BY 01Z. ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS OHIO WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...SO HAVE LEFT
DIMINISHING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HAVE AGAIN
ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS AND DEW POINTS TOWARD LATEST TRENDS...WHICH
LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE AREA SAVE FOR THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND THE RIDGES MAY REMAIN DRY...AS SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMING TAKES PLACE ALOFT AND MIXING DRIES OUT THE SURFACE.
THIS MAY TAKE MOST OF THE DAY THOUGH...SO SOME SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY
MAY BE IN PLACE PER THE LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS.

IN ADDITION...THE 12Z GUIDANCE WANTS TO SHUNT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE AND A SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. HAVE PUSHED
CHANCE POPS SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THESE
TRENDS. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN WV THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDING
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY FROM KENTUCKY TO WEST VIRGINIA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STAY JUST BELOW OR NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE NOT NEEDED TO MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT COMPARED TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A
BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME DRY DAYS. HARD TO PINPOINT ANY
PARTICULAR POINT WHEN RAIN IS LIKELY...BUT SO FAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT SHIFT MUCH DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING...THOUGH AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM MAY BRUSH OH TERMINALS BEFORE MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING NEAR THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BRING MVFR/ISOLATED IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS CEILINGS LIFT AND EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT UNDER BUILDING
RIDGING.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
SOUTH OF PIT WITH A CROSSING DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 302337
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
737 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END THIS EVENING AS A WEAK FRONT
PASSES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LINE OF SCATTERED STRONG STORMS APPROACHING THE RIDGES AND WILL
EXIT BY 01Z. WATCH CANCELLED A BIT EARLY AS ONLY AN ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUST STILL POSSIBLE. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS AND DEW
POINTS TOWARD CURRENT OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE AREA SAVE FOR THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND THE RIDGES MAY REMAIN DRY...AS SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMING TAKES PLACE ALOFT AND MIXING DRIES OUT THE SURFACE.
THIS MAY TAKE MOST OF THE DAY THOUGH...SO SOME SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY
MAY BE IN PLACE PER THE LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS.

IN ADDITION...THE 12Z GUIDANCE WANTS TO SHUNT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE AND A SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. HAVE PUSHED
CHANCE POPS SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THESE
TRENDS. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN WV THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDING
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY FROM KENTUCKY TO WEST VIRGINIA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STAY JUST BELOW OR NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE NOT NEEDED TO MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT COMPARED TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A
BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME DRY DAYS. HARD TO PINPOINT ANY
PARTICULAR POINT WHEN RAIN IS LIKELY...BUT SO FAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT SHIFT MUCH DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK EAST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...BRINGING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. VFR IS EXPECTED BEHIND
THIS LINE UNTIL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING IS EXPECTED TO BRING
MVFR/ISOLATED IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UNDER BUILDING RIDGING.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WILL BE WITH
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 302337
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
737 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END THIS EVENING AS A WEAK FRONT
PASSES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LINE OF SCATTERED STRONG STORMS APPROACHING THE RIDGES AND WILL
EXIT BY 01Z. WATCH CANCELLED A BIT EARLY AS ONLY AN ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUST STILL POSSIBLE. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS AND DEW
POINTS TOWARD CURRENT OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE AREA SAVE FOR THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND THE RIDGES MAY REMAIN DRY...AS SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMING TAKES PLACE ALOFT AND MIXING DRIES OUT THE SURFACE.
THIS MAY TAKE MOST OF THE DAY THOUGH...SO SOME SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY
MAY BE IN PLACE PER THE LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS.

IN ADDITION...THE 12Z GUIDANCE WANTS TO SHUNT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE AND A SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. HAVE PUSHED
CHANCE POPS SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THESE
TRENDS. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN WV THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDING
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY FROM KENTUCKY TO WEST VIRGINIA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STAY JUST BELOW OR NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE NOT NEEDED TO MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT COMPARED TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A
BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME DRY DAYS. HARD TO PINPOINT ANY
PARTICULAR POINT WHEN RAIN IS LIKELY...BUT SO FAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT SHIFT MUCH DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK EAST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...BRINGING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. VFR IS EXPECTED BEHIND
THIS LINE UNTIL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING IS EXPECTED TO BRING
MVFR/ISOLATED IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UNDER BUILDING RIDGING.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WILL BE WITH
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 302211
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
611 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND AND DRIER
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE TO CLEAR PART OF SEVERE WATCH FROM INTO WRN PA AND NRN WV.
MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXITING PITTSBURGH METRO AND WILL
BE WEAKENING NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

CURRENT TIMING HAS THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE
REGION BY 8PM...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL ENSUE OVERNIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE
MIXING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE AREA SAVE FOR THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND THE RIDGES MAY REMAIN DRY...AS SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMING TAKES PLACE ALOFT AND MIXING DRIES OUT THE SURFACE.
THIS MAY TAKE MOST OF THE DAY THOUGH...SO SOME SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY
MAY BE IN PLACE PER THE LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS.

IN ADDITION...THE 12Z GUIDANCE WANTS TO SHUNT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE AND A SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. HAVE PUSHED
CHANCE POPS SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THESE
TRENDS. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN WV THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDING
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY FROM KENTUCKY TO WEST VIRGINIA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STAY JUST BELOW OR NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE NOT NEEDED TO MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT COMPARED TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A
BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME DRY DAYS. HARD TO PINPOINT ANY
PARTICULAR POINT WHEN RAIN IS LIKELY...BUT SO FAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT SHIFT MUCH DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK EAST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...BRINGING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. VFR IS EXPECTED BEHIND
THIS LINE UNTIL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING IS EXPECTED TO BRING
MVFR/ISOLATED IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UNDER BUILDING RIDGING.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WILL BE WITH
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 302211
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
611 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND AND DRIER
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE TO CLEAR PART OF SEVERE WATCH FROM INTO WRN PA AND NRN WV.
MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXITING PITTSBURGH METRO AND WILL
BE WEAKENING NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

CURRENT TIMING HAS THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE
REGION BY 8PM...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL ENSUE OVERNIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE
MIXING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE AREA SAVE FOR THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND THE RIDGES MAY REMAIN DRY...AS SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMING TAKES PLACE ALOFT AND MIXING DRIES OUT THE SURFACE.
THIS MAY TAKE MOST OF THE DAY THOUGH...SO SOME SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY
MAY BE IN PLACE PER THE LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS.

IN ADDITION...THE 12Z GUIDANCE WANTS TO SHUNT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE AND A SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. HAVE PUSHED
CHANCE POPS SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THESE
TRENDS. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN WV THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDING
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY FROM KENTUCKY TO WEST VIRGINIA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STAY JUST BELOW OR NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE NOT NEEDED TO MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT COMPARED TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A
BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME DRY DAYS. HARD TO PINPOINT ANY
PARTICULAR POINT WHEN RAIN IS LIKELY...BUT SO FAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT SHIFT MUCH DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK EAST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...BRINGING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. VFR IS EXPECTED BEHIND
THIS LINE UNTIL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING IS EXPECTED TO BRING
MVFR/ISOLATED IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UNDER BUILDING RIDGING.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WILL BE WITH
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 302114
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
514 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND AND DRIER
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
EARLY UPDATE TO CLEAR PART OF SEVER WATCH FROM EASTERN OHIO. NO
OTHER CHANGES.

CURRENT TIMING HAS THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE
REGION BY 8PM...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL ENSUE OVERNIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE
MIXING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE AREA SAVE FOR THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND THE RIDGES MAY REMAIN DRY...AS SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMING TAKES PLACE ALOFT AND MIXING DRIES OUT THE SURFACE.
THIS MAY TAKE MOST OF THE DAY THOUGH...SO SOME SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY
MAY BE IN PLACE PER THE LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS.

IN ADDITION...THE 12Z GUIDANCE WANTS TO SHUNT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE AND A SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. HAVE PUSHED
CHANCE POPS SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THESE
TRENDS. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN WV THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDING
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY FROM KENTUCKY TO WEST VIRGINIA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STAY JUST BELOW OR NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE NOT NEEDED TO MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT COMPARED TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A
BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME DRY DAYS. HARD TO PINPOINT ANY
PARTICULAR POINT WHEN RAIN IS LIKELY...BUT SO FAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT SHIFT MUCH DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK EAST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...BRINGING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. VFR IS EXPECTED BEHIND
THIS LINE UNTIL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING IS EXPECTED TO BRING
MVFR/ISOLATED IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UNDER BUILDING RIDGING.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WILL BE WITH
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 302114
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
514 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND AND DRIER
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
EARLY UPDATE TO CLEAR PART OF SEVER WATCH FROM EASTERN OHIO. NO
OTHER CHANGES.

CURRENT TIMING HAS THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE
REGION BY 8PM...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL ENSUE OVERNIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE
MIXING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE AREA SAVE FOR THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND THE RIDGES MAY REMAIN DRY...AS SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMING TAKES PLACE ALOFT AND MIXING DRIES OUT THE SURFACE.
THIS MAY TAKE MOST OF THE DAY THOUGH...SO SOME SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY
MAY BE IN PLACE PER THE LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS.

IN ADDITION...THE 12Z GUIDANCE WANTS TO SHUNT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE AND A SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. HAVE PUSHED
CHANCE POPS SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THESE
TRENDS. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN WV THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDING
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY FROM KENTUCKY TO WEST VIRGINIA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STAY JUST BELOW OR NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE NOT NEEDED TO MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT COMPARED TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A
BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME DRY DAYS. HARD TO PINPOINT ANY
PARTICULAR POINT WHEN RAIN IS LIKELY...BUT SO FAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT SHIFT MUCH DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK EAST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...BRINGING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. VFR IS EXPECTED BEHIND
THIS LINE UNTIL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING IS EXPECTED TO BRING
MVFR/ISOLATED IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UNDER BUILDING RIDGING.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WILL BE WITH
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 302043
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
443 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND AND DRIER
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WHILE MUCH OF THE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE OVER OHIO HAS
BEEN SUPPRESSED...THUNDERSTORMS TIED TO THE MCV ARE A BIT MORE
ORGANIZED WITH SUPPORT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND COOLING
ALOFT. MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO CONTINUE WITH MODEST CAPE
AND SHEAR AS THE STORMS HEAD INTO PA. WIND THREAT WILL BE GREATEST
WHERE LAPSE RATES ARE THE STEEPEST.

CURRENT TIMING HAS THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE
REGION BY 8PM...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL ENSUE OVERNIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE
MIXING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE AREA SAVE FOR THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND THE RIDGES MAY REMAIN DRY...AS SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMING TAKES PLACE ALOFT AND MIXING DRIES OUT THE SURFACE.
THIS MAY TAKE MOST OF THE DAY THOUGH...SO SOME SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY
MAY BE IN PLACE PER THE LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS.

IN ADDITION...THE 12Z GUIDANCE WANTS TO SHUNT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE AND A SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. HAVE PUSHED
CHANCE POPS SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THESE
TRENDS. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN WV THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDING
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY FROM KENTUCKY TO WEST VIRGINIA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STAY JUST BELOW OR NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE NOT NEEDED TO MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT COMPARED TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A
BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME DRY DAYS. HARD TO PINPOINT ANY
PARTICULAR POINT WHEN RAIN IS LIKELY...BUT SO FAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT SHIFT MUCH DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THE TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE A THUNDERSTORM
AS INSTABILITY IS INCREASING WITH PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. THUS...HAVE
ADDED TSRA TEMPO GROUPS WITH PRIMARILY MVFR VSBY/CIG RESTRICTIONS.
WIND GUSTS TO 20KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER INTO THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PIVOTS TO THE EAST. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT TO FULLY DECOUPLE
OVERNIGHT...RAINFALL WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING THE CHANCE FOR MVFR AND
IFR RESTRICTIONS IN STRATUS AND FOG...ESPECIALLY OVER KFKL AND
KDUJ THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COOL NW FLOW MAY BRING OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD FOR MOST OF THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS
WILL BE WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 302043
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
443 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND AND DRIER
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WHILE MUCH OF THE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE OVER OHIO HAS
BEEN SUPPRESSED...THUNDERSTORMS TIED TO THE MCV ARE A BIT MORE
ORGANIZED WITH SUPPORT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND COOLING
ALOFT. MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO CONTINUE WITH MODEST CAPE
AND SHEAR AS THE STORMS HEAD INTO PA. WIND THREAT WILL BE GREATEST
WHERE LAPSE RATES ARE THE STEEPEST.

CURRENT TIMING HAS THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE
REGION BY 8PM...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL ENSUE OVERNIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE
MIXING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE AREA SAVE FOR THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND THE RIDGES MAY REMAIN DRY...AS SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMING TAKES PLACE ALOFT AND MIXING DRIES OUT THE SURFACE.
THIS MAY TAKE MOST OF THE DAY THOUGH...SO SOME SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY
MAY BE IN PLACE PER THE LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS.

IN ADDITION...THE 12Z GUIDANCE WANTS TO SHUNT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE AND A SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. HAVE PUSHED
CHANCE POPS SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THESE
TRENDS. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN WV THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDING
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY FROM KENTUCKY TO WEST VIRGINIA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STAY JUST BELOW OR NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE NOT NEEDED TO MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT COMPARED TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A
BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME DRY DAYS. HARD TO PINPOINT ANY
PARTICULAR POINT WHEN RAIN IS LIKELY...BUT SO FAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT SHIFT MUCH DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THE TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE A THUNDERSTORM
AS INSTABILITY IS INCREASING WITH PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. THUS...HAVE
ADDED TSRA TEMPO GROUPS WITH PRIMARILY MVFR VSBY/CIG RESTRICTIONS.
WIND GUSTS TO 20KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER INTO THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PIVOTS TO THE EAST. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT TO FULLY DECOUPLE
OVERNIGHT...RAINFALL WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING THE CHANCE FOR MVFR AND
IFR RESTRICTIONS IN STRATUS AND FOG...ESPECIALLY OVER KFKL AND
KDUJ THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COOL NW FLOW MAY BRING OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD FOR MOST OF THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS
WILL BE WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301821
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
221 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND AND DRIER
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX OVER WESTERN OHIO...APPARENT IN BOTH
THE RADAR AND SATELLITE...WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...CLOUDS HAVE
SCATTERED OUT SUFFICIENTLY TO WARM AND DESTABILIZE THE AREA...WITH
ABOUT 1000J/KG OF MUCAPE AS SUGGESTED BY THE MESOANALYSIS. WITH
30-35KTS OF BULK SHEAR...AND SOME COOLING ALOFT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...SOME STORMS SHOULD BE SUPPORTED TO
STRONG OR SEVERE LEVELS. AS SUCH...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
ADDED OUR AREA TO A SLIGHT RISK AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT BUT WITH FREEZING LEVELS NEAR 12KFT...SOME HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

TRIED TO TIME THE HIGHEST POPS WITH THE LONE OF CONVECTION OVER
OHIO THAT THE HRRR REPRESENTED WELL THIS MORNING. CURRENT TIMING
HAS THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION EAST OF THE REGION BY 8PM. WEAK
COLD ADVECTION WILL ENSUE OVERNIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE
MIXING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE AREA SAVE FOR THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND THE RIDGES MAY REMAIN DRY...AS SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMING TAKES PLACE ALOFT AND MIXING DRIES OUT THE SURFACE.
THIS MAY TAKE MOST OF THE DAY THOUGH...SO SOME SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY
MAY BE IN PLACE PER THE LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS.

IN ADDITION...THE 12Z GUIDANCE WANTS TO SHUNT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE AND A SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. HAVE PUSHED
CHANCE POPS SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THESE
TRENDS. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN WV THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDING
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY FROM KENTUCKY TO WEST VIRGINIA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STAY JUST BELOW OR NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE NOT NEEDED TO MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT COMPARED TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A
BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME DRY DAYS. HARD TO PINPOINT ANY
PARTICULAR POINT WHEN RAIN IS LIKELY...BUT SO FAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT SHIFT MUCH DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THE TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE A THUNDERSTORM
AS INSTABILITY IS INCREASING WITH PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. THUS...HAVE
ADDED TSRA TEMPO GROUPS WITH PRIMARILY MVFR VSBY/CIG RESTRICTIONS.
WIND GUSTS TO 20KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER INTO THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PIVOTS TO THE EAST. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT TO FULLY DECOUPLE
OVERNIGHT...RAINFALL WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING THE CHANCE FOR MVFR AND
IFR RESTRICTIONS IN STRATUS AND FOG...ESPECIALLY OVER KFKL AND
KDUJ THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COOL NW FLOW MAY BRING OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD FOR MOST OF THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS
WILL BE WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301821
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
221 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND AND DRIER
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX OVER WESTERN OHIO...APPARENT IN BOTH
THE RADAR AND SATELLITE...WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...CLOUDS HAVE
SCATTERED OUT SUFFICIENTLY TO WARM AND DESTABILIZE THE AREA...WITH
ABOUT 1000J/KG OF MUCAPE AS SUGGESTED BY THE MESOANALYSIS. WITH
30-35KTS OF BULK SHEAR...AND SOME COOLING ALOFT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...SOME STORMS SHOULD BE SUPPORTED TO
STRONG OR SEVERE LEVELS. AS SUCH...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
ADDED OUR AREA TO A SLIGHT RISK AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT BUT WITH FREEZING LEVELS NEAR 12KFT...SOME HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

TRIED TO TIME THE HIGHEST POPS WITH THE LONE OF CONVECTION OVER
OHIO THAT THE HRRR REPRESENTED WELL THIS MORNING. CURRENT TIMING
HAS THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION EAST OF THE REGION BY 8PM. WEAK
COLD ADVECTION WILL ENSUE OVERNIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE
MIXING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE AREA SAVE FOR THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND THE RIDGES MAY REMAIN DRY...AS SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMING TAKES PLACE ALOFT AND MIXING DRIES OUT THE SURFACE.
THIS MAY TAKE MOST OF THE DAY THOUGH...SO SOME SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY
MAY BE IN PLACE PER THE LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS.

IN ADDITION...THE 12Z GUIDANCE WANTS TO SHUNT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE AND A SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. HAVE PUSHED
CHANCE POPS SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THESE
TRENDS. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN WV THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDING
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY FROM KENTUCKY TO WEST VIRGINIA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STAY JUST BELOW OR NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE NOT NEEDED TO MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT COMPARED TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A
BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME DRY DAYS. HARD TO PINPOINT ANY
PARTICULAR POINT WHEN RAIN IS LIKELY...BUT SO FAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT SHIFT MUCH DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THE TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE A THUNDERSTORM
AS INSTABILITY IS INCREASING WITH PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. THUS...HAVE
ADDED TSRA TEMPO GROUPS WITH PRIMARILY MVFR VSBY/CIG RESTRICTIONS.
WIND GUSTS TO 20KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER INTO THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PIVOTS TO THE EAST. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT TO FULLY DECOUPLE
OVERNIGHT...RAINFALL WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING THE CHANCE FOR MVFR AND
IFR RESTRICTIONS IN STRATUS AND FOG...ESPECIALLY OVER KFKL AND
KDUJ THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COOL NW FLOW MAY BRING OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD FOR MOST OF THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS
WILL BE WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301821
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
221 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND AND DRIER
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX OVER WESTERN OHIO...APPARENT IN BOTH
THE RADAR AND SATELLITE...WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...CLOUDS HAVE
SCATTERED OUT SUFFICIENTLY TO WARM AND DESTABILIZE THE AREA...WITH
ABOUT 1000J/KG OF MUCAPE AS SUGGESTED BY THE MESOANALYSIS. WITH
30-35KTS OF BULK SHEAR...AND SOME COOLING ALOFT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...SOME STORMS SHOULD BE SUPPORTED TO
STRONG OR SEVERE LEVELS. AS SUCH...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
ADDED OUR AREA TO A SLIGHT RISK AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT BUT WITH FREEZING LEVELS NEAR 12KFT...SOME HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

TRIED TO TIME THE HIGHEST POPS WITH THE LONE OF CONVECTION OVER
OHIO THAT THE HRRR REPRESENTED WELL THIS MORNING. CURRENT TIMING
HAS THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION EAST OF THE REGION BY 8PM. WEAK
COLD ADVECTION WILL ENSUE OVERNIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE
MIXING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE AREA SAVE FOR THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND THE RIDGES MAY REMAIN DRY...AS SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMING TAKES PLACE ALOFT AND MIXING DRIES OUT THE SURFACE.
THIS MAY TAKE MOST OF THE DAY THOUGH...SO SOME SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY
MAY BE IN PLACE PER THE LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS.

IN ADDITION...THE 12Z GUIDANCE WANTS TO SHUNT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE AND A SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. HAVE PUSHED
CHANCE POPS SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THESE
TRENDS. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN WV THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDING
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY FROM KENTUCKY TO WEST VIRGINIA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STAY JUST BELOW OR NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE NOT NEEDED TO MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT COMPARED TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A
BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME DRY DAYS. HARD TO PINPOINT ANY
PARTICULAR POINT WHEN RAIN IS LIKELY...BUT SO FAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT SHIFT MUCH DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THE TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE A THUNDERSTORM
AS INSTABILITY IS INCREASING WITH PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. THUS...HAVE
ADDED TSRA TEMPO GROUPS WITH PRIMARILY MVFR VSBY/CIG RESTRICTIONS.
WIND GUSTS TO 20KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER INTO THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PIVOTS TO THE EAST. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT TO FULLY DECOUPLE
OVERNIGHT...RAINFALL WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING THE CHANCE FOR MVFR AND
IFR RESTRICTIONS IN STRATUS AND FOG...ESPECIALLY OVER KFKL AND
KDUJ THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COOL NW FLOW MAY BRING OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD FOR MOST OF THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS
WILL BE WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301821
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
221 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND AND DRIER
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX OVER WESTERN OHIO...APPARENT IN BOTH
THE RADAR AND SATELLITE...WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...CLOUDS HAVE
SCATTERED OUT SUFFICIENTLY TO WARM AND DESTABILIZE THE AREA...WITH
ABOUT 1000J/KG OF MUCAPE AS SUGGESTED BY THE MESOANALYSIS. WITH
30-35KTS OF BULK SHEAR...AND SOME COOLING ALOFT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...SOME STORMS SHOULD BE SUPPORTED TO
STRONG OR SEVERE LEVELS. AS SUCH...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
ADDED OUR AREA TO A SLIGHT RISK AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT BUT WITH FREEZING LEVELS NEAR 12KFT...SOME HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

TRIED TO TIME THE HIGHEST POPS WITH THE LONE OF CONVECTION OVER
OHIO THAT THE HRRR REPRESENTED WELL THIS MORNING. CURRENT TIMING
HAS THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION EAST OF THE REGION BY 8PM. WEAK
COLD ADVECTION WILL ENSUE OVERNIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE
MIXING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE AREA SAVE FOR THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND THE RIDGES MAY REMAIN DRY...AS SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMING TAKES PLACE ALOFT AND MIXING DRIES OUT THE SURFACE.
THIS MAY TAKE MOST OF THE DAY THOUGH...SO SOME SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY
MAY BE IN PLACE PER THE LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS.

IN ADDITION...THE 12Z GUIDANCE WANTS TO SHUNT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE AND A SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. HAVE PUSHED
CHANCE POPS SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THESE
TRENDS. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN WV THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDING
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY FROM KENTUCKY TO WEST VIRGINIA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STAY JUST BELOW OR NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE NOT NEEDED TO MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT COMPARED TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A
BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME DRY DAYS. HARD TO PINPOINT ANY
PARTICULAR POINT WHEN RAIN IS LIKELY...BUT SO FAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT SHIFT MUCH DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THE TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE A THUNDERSTORM
AS INSTABILITY IS INCREASING WITH PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. THUS...HAVE
ADDED TSRA TEMPO GROUPS WITH PRIMARILY MVFR VSBY/CIG RESTRICTIONS.
WIND GUSTS TO 20KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER INTO THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PIVOTS TO THE EAST. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT TO FULLY DECOUPLE
OVERNIGHT...RAINFALL WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING THE CHANCE FOR MVFR AND
IFR RESTRICTIONS IN STRATUS AND FOG...ESPECIALLY OVER KFKL AND
KDUJ THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COOL NW FLOW MAY BRING OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD FOR MOST OF THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS
WILL BE WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301407
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1007 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND AND DRIER
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATES MADE THIS MORNING ARE RATHER MINIMAL AS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN OHIO AS A
SHORTWAVE PIVOTS TOWARD THE REGION. HAVE UPPED THE POPS BASED ON
THE LATEST HI RES MODEL DATA WHICH HAS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE BLOSSOMING IN WEAK INSTABILITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION...BUT BULK SHEAR OF 30KTS
COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER CELLS. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS...WITH CLOUDS BEING THE LIMITING FACTOR.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH AND CLOUD COVER IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. ITS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOCUSED ALONG THIS
FEATURE...BUT AT THIS TIME THE CHANCE IS MINIMAL AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION CAPPING OFF ANY
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY.

GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTH WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
FEATURE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING. WITH DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA CLOSEST TO THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE NOT NEEDED TO MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT COMPARED TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A
BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME DRY DAYS. HARD TO PINPOINT ANY
PARTICULAR POINT WHEN RAIN IS LIKELY...BUT SO FAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT SHIFT MUCH DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY
DAWN...WITH ZZV/FKL EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS. WILL NEED
TO WATCH POTENTIAL OF LIFR FOG CREEPING INTO ZZV FROM THE
WEST...BUT REMAINING TERMINALS DO NOT APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH OF A
FOG THREAT. CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY RISE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL HELP TO PROMOTE WIND
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR
LOCATION TO ADD PREVAILING PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE
STUCK WITH VCTS. WIND GUSTS AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD DROP
AFTER SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A ROUND OF IFR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK FRONT PASSES...AND AGAIN
ON SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURE

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301407
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1007 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND AND DRIER
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATES MADE THIS MORNING ARE RATHER MINIMAL AS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN OHIO AS A
SHORTWAVE PIVOTS TOWARD THE REGION. HAVE UPPED THE POPS BASED ON
THE LATEST HI RES MODEL DATA WHICH HAS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE BLOSSOMING IN WEAK INSTABILITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION...BUT BULK SHEAR OF 30KTS
COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER CELLS. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS...WITH CLOUDS BEING THE LIMITING FACTOR.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH AND CLOUD COVER IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. ITS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOCUSED ALONG THIS
FEATURE...BUT AT THIS TIME THE CHANCE IS MINIMAL AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION CAPPING OFF ANY
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY.

GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTH WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
FEATURE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING. WITH DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA CLOSEST TO THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE NOT NEEDED TO MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT COMPARED TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A
BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME DRY DAYS. HARD TO PINPOINT ANY
PARTICULAR POINT WHEN RAIN IS LIKELY...BUT SO FAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT SHIFT MUCH DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY
DAWN...WITH ZZV/FKL EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS. WILL NEED
TO WATCH POTENTIAL OF LIFR FOG CREEPING INTO ZZV FROM THE
WEST...BUT REMAINING TERMINALS DO NOT APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH OF A
FOG THREAT. CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY RISE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL HELP TO PROMOTE WIND
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR
LOCATION TO ADD PREVAILING PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE
STUCK WITH VCTS. WIND GUSTS AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD DROP
AFTER SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A ROUND OF IFR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK FRONT PASSES...AND AGAIN
ON SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURE

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300747
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
347 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND AND DRIER
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH RIDING THE WARM CONVEYOR NORTH
UP AND OVER THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE EAST THIS MORNING...WITH
PRECIPITATION LARGELY BEYOND OF THE RIDGES SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. A LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE PASS ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND WITH
A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION PROGGED...SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THE RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW AS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN PROGGING
RELATIVELY WEAK BULK SHEAR...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND MIXED
LAYER CAPE VALUES OF 500 J/KG OR LESS. STRONGER STORMS WOULD BE
POSSIBLE IF WE DID GET MORE SUNSHINE/HEATING THAN EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DESPITE CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UNDER PERSISTENT CLOUD COVERAGE AND LONGWAVE
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. ITS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOCUSED ALONG THIS
FEATURE...BUT AT THIS TIME THE CHANCE IS MINIMAL AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION CAPPING OFF ANY
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY.

GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTH WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
FEATURE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING. WITH DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA CLOSEST TO THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE NOT NEEDED TO MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT COMPARED TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A
BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME DRY DAYS. HARD TO PINPOINT ANY
PARTICULAR POINT WHEN RAIN IS LIKELY...BUT SO FAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT SHIFT MUCH DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY
DAWN...WITH ZZV/FKL EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS. WILL NEED
TO WATCH POTENTIAL OF LIFR FOG CREEPING INTO ZZV FROM THE
WEST...BUT REMAINING TERMINALS DO NOT APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH OF A
FOG THREAT. CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY RISE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL HELP TO PROMOTE WIND
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR
LOCATION TO ADD PREVAILING PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE
STUCK WITH VCTS. WIND GUSTS AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD DROP
AFTER SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A ROUND OF IFR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK FRONT PASSES...AND AGAIN
ON SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURE

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300747
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
347 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND AND DRIER
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH RIDING THE WARM CONVEYOR NORTH
UP AND OVER THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE EAST THIS MORNING...WITH
PRECIPITATION LARGELY BEYOND OF THE RIDGES SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. A LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE PASS ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND WITH
A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION PROGGED...SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THE RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW AS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN PROGGING
RELATIVELY WEAK BULK SHEAR...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND MIXED
LAYER CAPE VALUES OF 500 J/KG OR LESS. STRONGER STORMS WOULD BE
POSSIBLE IF WE DID GET MORE SUNSHINE/HEATING THAN EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DESPITE CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UNDER PERSISTENT CLOUD COVERAGE AND LONGWAVE
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. ITS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOCUSED ALONG THIS
FEATURE...BUT AT THIS TIME THE CHANCE IS MINIMAL AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION CAPPING OFF ANY
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY.

GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTH WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
FEATURE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING. WITH DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA CLOSEST TO THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE NOT NEEDED TO MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT COMPARED TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A
BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME DRY DAYS. HARD TO PINPOINT ANY
PARTICULAR POINT WHEN RAIN IS LIKELY...BUT SO FAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT SHIFT MUCH DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY
DAWN...WITH ZZV/FKL EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS. WILL NEED
TO WATCH POTENTIAL OF LIFR FOG CREEPING INTO ZZV FROM THE
WEST...BUT REMAINING TERMINALS DO NOT APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH OF A
FOG THREAT. CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY RISE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL HELP TO PROMOTE WIND
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR
LOCATION TO ADD PREVAILING PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE
STUCK WITH VCTS. WIND GUSTS AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD DROP
AFTER SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A ROUND OF IFR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK FRONT PASSES...AND AGAIN
ON SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURE

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300747
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
347 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND AND DRIER
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH RIDING THE WARM CONVEYOR NORTH
UP AND OVER THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE EAST THIS MORNING...WITH
PRECIPITATION LARGELY BEYOND OF THE RIDGES SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. A LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE PASS ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND WITH
A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION PROGGED...SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THE RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW AS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN PROGGING
RELATIVELY WEAK BULK SHEAR...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND MIXED
LAYER CAPE VALUES OF 500 J/KG OR LESS. STRONGER STORMS WOULD BE
POSSIBLE IF WE DID GET MORE SUNSHINE/HEATING THAN EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DESPITE CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UNDER PERSISTENT CLOUD COVERAGE AND LONGWAVE
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. ITS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOCUSED ALONG THIS
FEATURE...BUT AT THIS TIME THE CHANCE IS MINIMAL AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION CAPPING OFF ANY
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY.

GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTH WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
FEATURE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING. WITH DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA CLOSEST TO THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE NOT NEEDED TO MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT COMPARED TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A
BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME DRY DAYS. HARD TO PINPOINT ANY
PARTICULAR POINT WHEN RAIN IS LIKELY...BUT SO FAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT SHIFT MUCH DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY
DAWN...WITH ZZV/FKL EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS. WILL NEED
TO WATCH POTENTIAL OF LIFR FOG CREEPING INTO ZZV FROM THE
WEST...BUT REMAINING TERMINALS DO NOT APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH OF A
FOG THREAT. CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY RISE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL HELP TO PROMOTE WIND
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR
LOCATION TO ADD PREVAILING PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE
STUCK WITH VCTS. WIND GUSTS AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD DROP
AFTER SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A ROUND OF IFR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK FRONT PASSES...AND AGAIN
ON SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURE

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300747
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
347 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND AND DRIER
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH RIDING THE WARM CONVEYOR NORTH
UP AND OVER THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE EAST THIS MORNING...WITH
PRECIPITATION LARGELY BEYOND OF THE RIDGES SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. A LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE PASS ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND WITH
A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION PROGGED...SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THE RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW AS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN PROGGING
RELATIVELY WEAK BULK SHEAR...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND MIXED
LAYER CAPE VALUES OF 500 J/KG OR LESS. STRONGER STORMS WOULD BE
POSSIBLE IF WE DID GET MORE SUNSHINE/HEATING THAN EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DESPITE CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UNDER PERSISTENT CLOUD COVERAGE AND LONGWAVE
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. ITS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOCUSED ALONG THIS
FEATURE...BUT AT THIS TIME THE CHANCE IS MINIMAL AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION CAPPING OFF ANY
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY.

GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTH WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
FEATURE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING. WITH DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA CLOSEST TO THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE NOT NEEDED TO MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT COMPARED TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A
BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME DRY DAYS. HARD TO PINPOINT ANY
PARTICULAR POINT WHEN RAIN IS LIKELY...BUT SO FAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT SHIFT MUCH DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY
DAWN...WITH ZZV/FKL EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS. WILL NEED
TO WATCH POTENTIAL OF LIFR FOG CREEPING INTO ZZV FROM THE
WEST...BUT REMAINING TERMINALS DO NOT APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH OF A
FOG THREAT. CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY RISE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL HELP TO PROMOTE WIND
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR
LOCATION TO ADD PREVAILING PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE
STUCK WITH VCTS. WIND GUSTS AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD DROP
AFTER SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A ROUND OF IFR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK FRONT PASSES...AND AGAIN
ON SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURE

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300518
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
118 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE
STARTING TO DIMINISH BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE PRIMARY AREAS WHERE
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE WILL BE MAINLY EAST OF THE PA/OH
BORDER...ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR AND NORTH WHERE THE WARM FRONT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED BASED OFF LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SOUTH
ACROSS WESTERN PA AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE OVER WEST VIRGINIA
RIDES THE WARM CONVEYOR NORTH UP AND OVER THE FRONT. NO CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREV DISCUSSION
BELOW..

PERIODIC SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF PIT WHERE LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS
SEEN ON MESO ANALYSIS...SO MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THIS AREA. FURTHER NORTH WITH LACK OF LOW LEVEL JET AND SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY LEFT OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER.

A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH LATER IN THE
DAY WITH INCREASING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. MODEL PROGGED SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY ARE MARGINAL...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IS
IN QUESTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH MID-
WEEK...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THE START OF THE TUESDAY
NIGHT PERIOD...BUT THESE SHOULD WANE QUICKLY AS THEIR SUPPORTING
UPPER WAVE DEPARTS AND DRIVES THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD.

THIS COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STALLED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...AND LIKELY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS MODEST INSTABILITY PERSISTS
IN THE WARM SECTOR...AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPINGES ON THE
REGION.

TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL NOT DEPART MUCH FROM NORMAL VALUES.
AMID INCREASING CUMULUS COVER...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER
70S-LOWER 80S...WITH MINIMA IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL FLATTEN SOMEWHAT IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST...WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE-WEEK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DIVERTED QUITE
LITTLE DURING THIS TIME...AND WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR DAILY ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON DETAILS AT THIS RANGE...BUT THE GENERAL
PICTURE IS THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES
ALONG THIS STALLED BOUNDARY LATE IN THE WEEK. THE PRECISE POSITION
OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL DICTATE THE COVERAGE OF ANY ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION IN THE PITTSBURGH FORECAST AREA...BUT CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS THAT THE SOUTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE AREA HAS THE
GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF MEASURABLE RAIN. THUS...POPS WERE ADJUSTED
IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK TO DEPICT A BIT MORE OF A GRADIENT.

THERE IS NO INDICATION THAT TEMPERATURES WILL DEVIATE FROM
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS BY ANY SIGNIFICANT DEGREE. MAXIMA IN THE
UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S AND MINIMA IN THE LOWER 60S SHOULD BE COMMON
AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERAL VFR THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED MVFR IN SHOWERS THROUGH
02Z. WITH DEW POINTS RISING AND SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT
SOME MVFR TO IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP 8-10Z NORTHERN PORTS AND AFTER
10Z ELSEWHERE. A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH WILL HELP PUT NORTHERN
PORTS IN LINE FOR MOST OF THE IFR CIGS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH LATE DAY TUESDAY WITH MIXING BRINGING GENERAL VFR BACK
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. ONLY VCTS LATE DAY TUESDAY WELL AHEAD OF
FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS A
WEAK FRONT PASSES...AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE LOW
PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300518
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
118 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE
STARTING TO DIMINISH BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE PRIMARY AREAS WHERE
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE WILL BE MAINLY EAST OF THE PA/OH
BORDER...ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR AND NORTH WHERE THE WARM FRONT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED BASED OFF LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SOUTH
ACROSS WESTERN PA AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE OVER WEST VIRGINIA
RIDES THE WARM CONVEYOR NORTH UP AND OVER THE FRONT. NO CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREV DISCUSSION
BELOW..

PERIODIC SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF PIT WHERE LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS
SEEN ON MESO ANALYSIS...SO MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THIS AREA. FURTHER NORTH WITH LACK OF LOW LEVEL JET AND SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY LEFT OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER.

A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH LATER IN THE
DAY WITH INCREASING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. MODEL PROGGED SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY ARE MARGINAL...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IS
IN QUESTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH MID-
WEEK...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THE START OF THE TUESDAY
NIGHT PERIOD...BUT THESE SHOULD WANE QUICKLY AS THEIR SUPPORTING
UPPER WAVE DEPARTS AND DRIVES THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD.

THIS COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STALLED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...AND LIKELY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS MODEST INSTABILITY PERSISTS
IN THE WARM SECTOR...AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPINGES ON THE
REGION.

TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL NOT DEPART MUCH FROM NORMAL VALUES.
AMID INCREASING CUMULUS COVER...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER
70S-LOWER 80S...WITH MINIMA IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL FLATTEN SOMEWHAT IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST...WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE-WEEK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DIVERTED QUITE
LITTLE DURING THIS TIME...AND WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR DAILY ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON DETAILS AT THIS RANGE...BUT THE GENERAL
PICTURE IS THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES
ALONG THIS STALLED BOUNDARY LATE IN THE WEEK. THE PRECISE POSITION
OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL DICTATE THE COVERAGE OF ANY ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION IN THE PITTSBURGH FORECAST AREA...BUT CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS THAT THE SOUTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE AREA HAS THE
GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF MEASURABLE RAIN. THUS...POPS WERE ADJUSTED
IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK TO DEPICT A BIT MORE OF A GRADIENT.

THERE IS NO INDICATION THAT TEMPERATURES WILL DEVIATE FROM
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS BY ANY SIGNIFICANT DEGREE. MAXIMA IN THE
UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S AND MINIMA IN THE LOWER 60S SHOULD BE COMMON
AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERAL VFR THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED MVFR IN SHOWERS THROUGH
02Z. WITH DEW POINTS RISING AND SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT
SOME MVFR TO IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP 8-10Z NORTHERN PORTS AND AFTER
10Z ELSEWHERE. A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH WILL HELP PUT NORTHERN
PORTS IN LINE FOR MOST OF THE IFR CIGS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH LATE DAY TUESDAY WITH MIXING BRINGING GENERAL VFR BACK
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. ONLY VCTS LATE DAY TUESDAY WELL AHEAD OF
FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS A
WEAK FRONT PASSES...AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE LOW
PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300518
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
118 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE
STARTING TO DIMINISH BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE PRIMARY AREAS WHERE
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE WILL BE MAINLY EAST OF THE PA/OH
BORDER...ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR AND NORTH WHERE THE WARM FRONT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED BASED OFF LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SOUTH
ACROSS WESTERN PA AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE OVER WEST VIRGINIA
RIDES THE WARM CONVEYOR NORTH UP AND OVER THE FRONT. NO CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREV DISCUSSION
BELOW..

PERIODIC SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF PIT WHERE LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS
SEEN ON MESO ANALYSIS...SO MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THIS AREA. FURTHER NORTH WITH LACK OF LOW LEVEL JET AND SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY LEFT OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER.

A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH LATER IN THE
DAY WITH INCREASING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. MODEL PROGGED SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY ARE MARGINAL...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IS
IN QUESTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH MID-
WEEK...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THE START OF THE TUESDAY
NIGHT PERIOD...BUT THESE SHOULD WANE QUICKLY AS THEIR SUPPORTING
UPPER WAVE DEPARTS AND DRIVES THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD.

THIS COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STALLED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...AND LIKELY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS MODEST INSTABILITY PERSISTS
IN THE WARM SECTOR...AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPINGES ON THE
REGION.

TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL NOT DEPART MUCH FROM NORMAL VALUES.
AMID INCREASING CUMULUS COVER...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER
70S-LOWER 80S...WITH MINIMA IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL FLATTEN SOMEWHAT IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST...WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE-WEEK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DIVERTED QUITE
LITTLE DURING THIS TIME...AND WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR DAILY ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON DETAILS AT THIS RANGE...BUT THE GENERAL
PICTURE IS THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES
ALONG THIS STALLED BOUNDARY LATE IN THE WEEK. THE PRECISE POSITION
OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL DICTATE THE COVERAGE OF ANY ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION IN THE PITTSBURGH FORECAST AREA...BUT CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS THAT THE SOUTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE AREA HAS THE
GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF MEASURABLE RAIN. THUS...POPS WERE ADJUSTED
IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK TO DEPICT A BIT MORE OF A GRADIENT.

THERE IS NO INDICATION THAT TEMPERATURES WILL DEVIATE FROM
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS BY ANY SIGNIFICANT DEGREE. MAXIMA IN THE
UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S AND MINIMA IN THE LOWER 60S SHOULD BE COMMON
AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERAL VFR THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED MVFR IN SHOWERS THROUGH
02Z. WITH DEW POINTS RISING AND SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT
SOME MVFR TO IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP 8-10Z NORTHERN PORTS AND AFTER
10Z ELSEWHERE. A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH WILL HELP PUT NORTHERN
PORTS IN LINE FOR MOST OF THE IFR CIGS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH LATE DAY TUESDAY WITH MIXING BRINGING GENERAL VFR BACK
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. ONLY VCTS LATE DAY TUESDAY WELL AHEAD OF
FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS A
WEAK FRONT PASSES...AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE LOW
PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300518
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
118 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE
STARTING TO DIMINISH BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE PRIMARY AREAS WHERE
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE WILL BE MAINLY EAST OF THE PA/OH
BORDER...ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR AND NORTH WHERE THE WARM FRONT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED BASED OFF LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SOUTH
ACROSS WESTERN PA AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE OVER WEST VIRGINIA
RIDES THE WARM CONVEYOR NORTH UP AND OVER THE FRONT. NO CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREV DISCUSSION
BELOW..

PERIODIC SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF PIT WHERE LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS
SEEN ON MESO ANALYSIS...SO MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THIS AREA. FURTHER NORTH WITH LACK OF LOW LEVEL JET AND SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY LEFT OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER.

A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH LATER IN THE
DAY WITH INCREASING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. MODEL PROGGED SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY ARE MARGINAL...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IS
IN QUESTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH MID-
WEEK...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THE START OF THE TUESDAY
NIGHT PERIOD...BUT THESE SHOULD WANE QUICKLY AS THEIR SUPPORTING
UPPER WAVE DEPARTS AND DRIVES THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD.

THIS COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STALLED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...AND LIKELY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS MODEST INSTABILITY PERSISTS
IN THE WARM SECTOR...AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPINGES ON THE
REGION.

TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL NOT DEPART MUCH FROM NORMAL VALUES.
AMID INCREASING CUMULUS COVER...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER
70S-LOWER 80S...WITH MINIMA IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL FLATTEN SOMEWHAT IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST...WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE-WEEK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DIVERTED QUITE
LITTLE DURING THIS TIME...AND WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR DAILY ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON DETAILS AT THIS RANGE...BUT THE GENERAL
PICTURE IS THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES
ALONG THIS STALLED BOUNDARY LATE IN THE WEEK. THE PRECISE POSITION
OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL DICTATE THE COVERAGE OF ANY ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION IN THE PITTSBURGH FORECAST AREA...BUT CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS THAT THE SOUTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE AREA HAS THE
GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF MEASURABLE RAIN. THUS...POPS WERE ADJUSTED
IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK TO DEPICT A BIT MORE OF A GRADIENT.

THERE IS NO INDICATION THAT TEMPERATURES WILL DEVIATE FROM
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS BY ANY SIGNIFICANT DEGREE. MAXIMA IN THE
UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S AND MINIMA IN THE LOWER 60S SHOULD BE COMMON
AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERAL VFR THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED MVFR IN SHOWERS THROUGH
02Z. WITH DEW POINTS RISING AND SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT
SOME MVFR TO IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP 8-10Z NORTHERN PORTS AND AFTER
10Z ELSEWHERE. A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH WILL HELP PUT NORTHERN
PORTS IN LINE FOR MOST OF THE IFR CIGS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH LATE DAY TUESDAY WITH MIXING BRINGING GENERAL VFR BACK
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. ONLY VCTS LATE DAY TUESDAY WELL AHEAD OF
FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS A
WEAK FRONT PASSES...AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE LOW
PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300116 CCA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
916 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERIODIC SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF PIT WHERE LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY
IS SEEN ON MESO ANALYSIS...SO MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA. FURTHER NORTH WITH LACK OF LOW LEVEL
JET AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY LEFT OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER.

A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH LATER IN THE
DAY WITH INCREASING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. MODEL PROGGED SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY ARE MARGINAL...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IS
IN QUESTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH MID-
WEEK...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THE START OF THE TUESDAY
NIGHT PERIOD...BUT THESE SHOULD WANE QUICKLY AS THEIR SUPPORTING
UPPER WAVE DEPARTS AND DRIVES THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD.

THIS COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STALLED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...AND LIKELY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS MODEST INSTABILITY PERSISTS
IN THE WARM SECTOR...AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPINGES ON THE
REGION.

TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL NOT DEPART MUCH FROM NORMAL VALUES.
AMID INCREASING CUMULUS COVER...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER
70S-LOWER 80S...WITH MINIMA IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL FLATTEN SOMEWHAT IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST...WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE-WEEK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DIVERTED QUITE
LITTLE DURING THIS TIME...AND WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR DAILY ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON DETAILS AT THIS RANGE...BUT THE GENERAL
PICTURE IS THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES
ALONG THIS STALLED BOUNDARY LATE IN THE WEEK. THE PRECISE POSITION
OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL DICTATE THE COVERAGE OF ANY ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION IN THE PITTSBURGH FORECAST AREA...BUT CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS THAT THE SOUTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE AREA HAS THE
GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF MEASURABLE RAIN. THUS...POPS WERE ADJUSTED
IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK TO DEPICT A BIT MORE OF A GRADIENT.

THERE IS NO INDICATION THAT TEMPERATURES WILL DEVIATE FROM
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS BY ANY SIGNIFICANT DEGREE. MAXIMA IN THE
UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S AND MINIMA IN THE LOWER 60S SHOULD BE COMMON
AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERAL VFR THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED MVFR IN SHOWERS THROUGH
02Z. WITH DEW POINTS RISING AND SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT
SOME MVFR TO IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP 8-10Z NORTHERN PORTS AND AFTER
10Z ELSEWHERE. A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH WILL HELP PUT NORTHERN
PORTS IN LINE FOR MOST OF THE IFR CIGS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH LATE DAY TUESDAY WITH MIXING BRINGING GENERAL VFR BACK
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. ONLY VCTS LATE DAY TUESDAY WELL AHEAD OF
FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS A
WEAK FRONT PASSES...AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE LOW
PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300116 CCA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
916 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERIODIC SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF PIT WHERE LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY
IS SEEN ON MESO ANALYSIS...SO MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA. FURTHER NORTH WITH LACK OF LOW LEVEL
JET AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY LEFT OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER.

A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH LATER IN THE
DAY WITH INCREASING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. MODEL PROGGED SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY ARE MARGINAL...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IS
IN QUESTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH MID-
WEEK...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THE START OF THE TUESDAY
NIGHT PERIOD...BUT THESE SHOULD WANE QUICKLY AS THEIR SUPPORTING
UPPER WAVE DEPARTS AND DRIVES THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD.

THIS COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STALLED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...AND LIKELY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS MODEST INSTABILITY PERSISTS
IN THE WARM SECTOR...AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPINGES ON THE
REGION.

TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL NOT DEPART MUCH FROM NORMAL VALUES.
AMID INCREASING CUMULUS COVER...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER
70S-LOWER 80S...WITH MINIMA IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL FLATTEN SOMEWHAT IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST...WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE-WEEK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DIVERTED QUITE
LITTLE DURING THIS TIME...AND WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR DAILY ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON DETAILS AT THIS RANGE...BUT THE GENERAL
PICTURE IS THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES
ALONG THIS STALLED BOUNDARY LATE IN THE WEEK. THE PRECISE POSITION
OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL DICTATE THE COVERAGE OF ANY ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION IN THE PITTSBURGH FORECAST AREA...BUT CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS THAT THE SOUTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE AREA HAS THE
GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF MEASURABLE RAIN. THUS...POPS WERE ADJUSTED
IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK TO DEPICT A BIT MORE OF A GRADIENT.

THERE IS NO INDICATION THAT TEMPERATURES WILL DEVIATE FROM
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS BY ANY SIGNIFICANT DEGREE. MAXIMA IN THE
UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S AND MINIMA IN THE LOWER 60S SHOULD BE COMMON
AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERAL VFR THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED MVFR IN SHOWERS THROUGH
02Z. WITH DEW POINTS RISING AND SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT
SOME MVFR TO IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP 8-10Z NORTHERN PORTS AND AFTER
10Z ELSEWHERE. A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH WILL HELP PUT NORTHERN
PORTS IN LINE FOR MOST OF THE IFR CIGS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH LATE DAY TUESDAY WITH MIXING BRINGING GENERAL VFR BACK
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. ONLY VCTS LATE DAY TUESDAY WELL AHEAD OF
FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS A
WEAK FRONT PASSES...AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE LOW
PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300116
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
916 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERIODIC SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF PIT WHERE LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY
IS SEEN ON MESO ANALYSIS...SO MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA. FURTHER NORTH WITH LACK OF LOW LEVEL
JET AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY LEFT OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER.

A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH LATER IN THE
DAY WITH INCREASING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. MODEL PROGGED SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY ARE MARGINAL...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IS
IN QUESTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH MID-
WEEK...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THE START OF THE TUESDAY
NIGHT PERIOD...BUT THESE SHOULD WANE QUICKLY AS THEIR SUPPORTING
UPPER WAVE DEPARTS AND DRIVES THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD.

THIS COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STALLED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...AND LIKELY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS MODEST INSTABILITY PERSISTS
IN THE WARM SECTOR...AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPINGES ON THE
REGION.

TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL NOT DEPART MUCH FROM NORMAL VALUES.
AMID INCREASING CUMULUS COVER...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER
70S-LOWER 80S...WITH MINIMA IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL FLATTEN SOMEWHAT IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST...WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE-WEEK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DIVERTED QUITE
LITTLE DURING THIS TIME...AND WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR DAILY ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON DETAILS AT THIS RANGE...BUT THE GENERAL
PICTURE IS THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES
ALONG THIS STALLED BOUNDARY LATE IN THE WEEK. THE PRECISE POSITION
OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL DICTATE THE COVERAGE OF ANY ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION IN THE PITTSBURGH FORECAST AREA...BUT CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS THAT THE SOUTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE AREA HAS THE
GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF MEASURABLE RAIN. THUS...POPS WERE ADJUSTED
IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK TO DEPICT A BIT MORE OF A GRADIENT.

THERE IS NO INDICATION THAT TEMPERATURES WILL DEVIATE FROM
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS BY ANY SIGNIFICANT DEGREE. MAXIMA IN THE
UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S AND MINIMA IN THE LOWER 60S SHOULD BE COMMON
AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERAL VFR THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED MVFR IN SHOWERS THROUGH
02Z. WITH DEW POINTS RISING AND SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT
SOME MVFR TO IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP 8-10Z NORTHERN PORTS AND AFTER
10Z ELSEWHERE. A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH WILL HELP PUT NORTHERN
PORTS IN LINE FOR MOST OF THE IFR CIGS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH LATE DAY TUESDAY WITH MIXING BRINGING GENERAL VFR BACK
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. ONLY VCTS LATE DAY TUESDAY WELL AHEAD OF
FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS A
WEAK FRONT PASSES...AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE LOW
PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300116
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
916 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERIODIC SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF PIT WHERE LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY
IS SEEN ON MESO ANALYSIS...SO MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA. FURTHER NORTH WITH LACK OF LOW LEVEL
JET AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY LEFT OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER.

A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH LATER IN THE
DAY WITH INCREASING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. MODEL PROGGED SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY ARE MARGINAL...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IS
IN QUESTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH MID-
WEEK...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THE START OF THE TUESDAY
NIGHT PERIOD...BUT THESE SHOULD WANE QUICKLY AS THEIR SUPPORTING
UPPER WAVE DEPARTS AND DRIVES THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD.

THIS COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STALLED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...AND LIKELY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS MODEST INSTABILITY PERSISTS
IN THE WARM SECTOR...AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPINGES ON THE
REGION.

TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL NOT DEPART MUCH FROM NORMAL VALUES.
AMID INCREASING CUMULUS COVER...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER
70S-LOWER 80S...WITH MINIMA IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL FLATTEN SOMEWHAT IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST...WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE-WEEK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DIVERTED QUITE
LITTLE DURING THIS TIME...AND WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR DAILY ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON DETAILS AT THIS RANGE...BUT THE GENERAL
PICTURE IS THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES
ALONG THIS STALLED BOUNDARY LATE IN THE WEEK. THE PRECISE POSITION
OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL DICTATE THE COVERAGE OF ANY ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION IN THE PITTSBURGH FORECAST AREA...BUT CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS THAT THE SOUTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE AREA HAS THE
GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF MEASURABLE RAIN. THUS...POPS WERE ADJUSTED
IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK TO DEPICT A BIT MORE OF A GRADIENT.

THERE IS NO INDICATION THAT TEMPERATURES WILL DEVIATE FROM
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS BY ANY SIGNIFICANT DEGREE. MAXIMA IN THE
UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S AND MINIMA IN THE LOWER 60S SHOULD BE COMMON
AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERAL VFR THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED MVFR IN SHOWERS THROUGH
02Z. WITH DEW POINTS RISING AND SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT
SOME MVFR TO IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP 8-10Z NORTHERN PORTS AND AFTER
10Z ELSEWHERE. A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH WILL HELP PUT NORTHERN
PORTS IN LINE FOR MOST OF THE IFR CIGS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH LATE DAY TUESDAY WITH MIXING BRINGING GENERAL VFR BACK
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. ONLY VCTS LATE DAY TUESDAY WELL AHEAD OF
FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS A
WEAK FRONT PASSES...AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE LOW
PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300116
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
916 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERIODIC SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF PIT WHERE LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY
IS SEEN ON MESO ANALYSIS...SO MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA. FURTHER NORTH WITH LACK OF LOW LEVEL
JET AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY LEFT OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER.

A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH LATER IN THE
DAY WITH INCREASING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. MODEL PROGGED SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY ARE MARGINAL...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IS
IN QUESTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH MID-
WEEK...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THE START OF THE TUESDAY
NIGHT PERIOD...BUT THESE SHOULD WANE QUICKLY AS THEIR SUPPORTING
UPPER WAVE DEPARTS AND DRIVES THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD.

THIS COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STALLED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...AND LIKELY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS MODEST INSTABILITY PERSISTS
IN THE WARM SECTOR...AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPINGES ON THE
REGION.

TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL NOT DEPART MUCH FROM NORMAL VALUES.
AMID INCREASING CUMULUS COVER...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER
70S-LOWER 80S...WITH MINIMA IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL FLATTEN SOMEWHAT IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST...WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE-WEEK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DIVERTED QUITE
LITTLE DURING THIS TIME...AND WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR DAILY ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON DETAILS AT THIS RANGE...BUT THE GENERAL
PICTURE IS THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES
ALONG THIS STALLED BOUNDARY LATE IN THE WEEK. THE PRECISE POSITION
OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL DICTATE THE COVERAGE OF ANY ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION IN THE PITTSBURGH FORECAST AREA...BUT CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS THAT THE SOUTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE AREA HAS THE
GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF MEASURABLE RAIN. THUS...POPS WERE ADJUSTED
IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK TO DEPICT A BIT MORE OF A GRADIENT.

THERE IS NO INDICATION THAT TEMPERATURES WILL DEVIATE FROM
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS BY ANY SIGNIFICANT DEGREE. MAXIMA IN THE
UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S AND MINIMA IN THE LOWER 60S SHOULD BE COMMON
AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERAL VFR THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED MVFR IN SHOWERS THROUGH
02Z. WITH DEW POINTS RISING AND SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT
SOME MVFR TO IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP 8-10Z NORTHERN PORTS AND AFTER
10Z ELSEWHERE. A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH WILL HELP PUT NORTHERN
PORTS IN LINE FOR MOST OF THE IFR CIGS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH LATE DAY TUESDAY WITH MIXING BRINGING GENERAL VFR BACK
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. ONLY VCTS LATE DAY TUESDAY WELL AHEAD OF
FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS A
WEAK FRONT PASSES...AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE LOW
PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 292343
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
743 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF PIT THOUGH MOST OF THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY
IS PROGGED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR AREA. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE WARM FRONT CROSSES OVERNIGHT...THOUGH WITH
LACK OF LOW LEVEL JET AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY LEFT THUNDER OUT
OF THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT.

A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH LATER IN THE
DAY WITH INCREASING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. MODEL PROGGED SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY ARE MARGINAL...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IS
IN QUESTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH MID-
WEEK...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THE START OF THE TUESDAY
NIGHT PERIOD...BUT THESE SHOULD WANE QUICKLY AS THEIR SUPPORTING
UPPER WAVE DEPARTS AND DRIVES THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD.

THIS COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STALLED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...AND LIKELY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS MODEST INSTABILITY PERSISTS
IN THE WARM SECTOR...AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPINGES ON THE
REGION.

TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL NOT DEPART MUCH FROM NORMAL VALUES.
AMID INCREASING CUMULUS COVER...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER
70S-LOWER 80S...WITH MINIMA IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL FLATTEN SOMEWHAT IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST...WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE-WEEK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DIVERTED QUITE
LITTLE DURING THIS TIME...AND WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR DAILY ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON DETAILS AT THIS RANGE...BUT THE GENERAL
PICTURE IS THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES
ALONG THIS STALLED BOUNDARY LATE IN THE WEEK. THE PRECISE POSITION
OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL DICTATE THE COVERAGE OF ANY ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION IN THE PITTSBURGH FORECAST AREA...BUT CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS THAT THE SOUTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE AREA HAS THE
GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF MEASURABLE RAIN. THUS...POPS WERE ADJUSTED
IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK TO DEPICT A BIT MORE OF A GRADIENT.

THERE IS NO INDICATION THAT TEMPERATURES WILL DEVIATE FROM
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS BY ANY SIGNIFICANT DEGREE. MAXIMA IN THE
UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S AND MINIMA IN THE LOWER 60S SHOULD BE COMMON
AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERAL VFR THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED MVFR IN SHOWERS THROUGH
02Z. WITH DEW POINTS RISING AND SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT
SOME MVFR TO IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP 8-10Z NORTHERN PORTS AND AFTER
10Z ELSEWHERE. A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH WILL HELP PUT NORTHERN
PORTS IN LINE FOR MOST OF THE IFR CIGS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH LATE DAY TUESDAY WITH MIXING BRINGING GENERAL VFR BACK
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. ONLY VCTS LATE DAY TUESDAY WELL AHEAD OF
FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS A
WEAK FRONT PASSES...AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE LOW
PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 292343
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
743 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF PIT THOUGH MOST OF THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY
IS PROGGED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR AREA. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE WARM FRONT CROSSES OVERNIGHT...THOUGH WITH
LACK OF LOW LEVEL JET AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY LEFT THUNDER OUT
OF THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT.

A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH LATER IN THE
DAY WITH INCREASING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. MODEL PROGGED SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY ARE MARGINAL...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IS
IN QUESTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH MID-
WEEK...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THE START OF THE TUESDAY
NIGHT PERIOD...BUT THESE SHOULD WANE QUICKLY AS THEIR SUPPORTING
UPPER WAVE DEPARTS AND DRIVES THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD.

THIS COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STALLED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...AND LIKELY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS MODEST INSTABILITY PERSISTS
IN THE WARM SECTOR...AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPINGES ON THE
REGION.

TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL NOT DEPART MUCH FROM NORMAL VALUES.
AMID INCREASING CUMULUS COVER...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER
70S-LOWER 80S...WITH MINIMA IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL FLATTEN SOMEWHAT IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST...WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE-WEEK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DIVERTED QUITE
LITTLE DURING THIS TIME...AND WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR DAILY ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON DETAILS AT THIS RANGE...BUT THE GENERAL
PICTURE IS THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES
ALONG THIS STALLED BOUNDARY LATE IN THE WEEK. THE PRECISE POSITION
OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL DICTATE THE COVERAGE OF ANY ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION IN THE PITTSBURGH FORECAST AREA...BUT CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS THAT THE SOUTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE AREA HAS THE
GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF MEASURABLE RAIN. THUS...POPS WERE ADJUSTED
IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK TO DEPICT A BIT MORE OF A GRADIENT.

THERE IS NO INDICATION THAT TEMPERATURES WILL DEVIATE FROM
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS BY ANY SIGNIFICANT DEGREE. MAXIMA IN THE
UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S AND MINIMA IN THE LOWER 60S SHOULD BE COMMON
AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERAL VFR THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED MVFR IN SHOWERS THROUGH
02Z. WITH DEW POINTS RISING AND SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT
SOME MVFR TO IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP 8-10Z NORTHERN PORTS AND AFTER
10Z ELSEWHERE. A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH WILL HELP PUT NORTHERN
PORTS IN LINE FOR MOST OF THE IFR CIGS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH LATE DAY TUESDAY WITH MIXING BRINGING GENERAL VFR BACK
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. ONLY VCTS LATE DAY TUESDAY WELL AHEAD OF
FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS A
WEAK FRONT PASSES...AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE LOW
PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 292343
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
743 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF PIT THOUGH MOST OF THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY
IS PROGGED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR AREA. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE WARM FRONT CROSSES OVERNIGHT...THOUGH WITH
LACK OF LOW LEVEL JET AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY LEFT THUNDER OUT
OF THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT.

A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH LATER IN THE
DAY WITH INCREASING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. MODEL PROGGED SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY ARE MARGINAL...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IS
IN QUESTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH MID-
WEEK...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THE START OF THE TUESDAY
NIGHT PERIOD...BUT THESE SHOULD WANE QUICKLY AS THEIR SUPPORTING
UPPER WAVE DEPARTS AND DRIVES THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD.

THIS COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STALLED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...AND LIKELY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS MODEST INSTABILITY PERSISTS
IN THE WARM SECTOR...AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPINGES ON THE
REGION.

TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL NOT DEPART MUCH FROM NORMAL VALUES.
AMID INCREASING CUMULUS COVER...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER
70S-LOWER 80S...WITH MINIMA IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL FLATTEN SOMEWHAT IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST...WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE-WEEK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DIVERTED QUITE
LITTLE DURING THIS TIME...AND WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR DAILY ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON DETAILS AT THIS RANGE...BUT THE GENERAL
PICTURE IS THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES
ALONG THIS STALLED BOUNDARY LATE IN THE WEEK. THE PRECISE POSITION
OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL DICTATE THE COVERAGE OF ANY ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION IN THE PITTSBURGH FORECAST AREA...BUT CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS THAT THE SOUTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE AREA HAS THE
GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF MEASURABLE RAIN. THUS...POPS WERE ADJUSTED
IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK TO DEPICT A BIT MORE OF A GRADIENT.

THERE IS NO INDICATION THAT TEMPERATURES WILL DEVIATE FROM
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS BY ANY SIGNIFICANT DEGREE. MAXIMA IN THE
UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S AND MINIMA IN THE LOWER 60S SHOULD BE COMMON
AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERAL VFR THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED MVFR IN SHOWERS THROUGH
02Z. WITH DEW POINTS RISING AND SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT
SOME MVFR TO IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP 8-10Z NORTHERN PORTS AND AFTER
10Z ELSEWHERE. A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH WILL HELP PUT NORTHERN
PORTS IN LINE FOR MOST OF THE IFR CIGS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH LATE DAY TUESDAY WITH MIXING BRINGING GENERAL VFR BACK
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. ONLY VCTS LATE DAY TUESDAY WELL AHEAD OF
FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS A
WEAK FRONT PASSES...AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE LOW
PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 292343
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
743 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF PIT THOUGH MOST OF THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY
IS PROGGED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR AREA. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE WARM FRONT CROSSES OVERNIGHT...THOUGH WITH
LACK OF LOW LEVEL JET AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY LEFT THUNDER OUT
OF THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT.

A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH LATER IN THE
DAY WITH INCREASING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. MODEL PROGGED SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY ARE MARGINAL...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IS
IN QUESTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH MID-
WEEK...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THE START OF THE TUESDAY
NIGHT PERIOD...BUT THESE SHOULD WANE QUICKLY AS THEIR SUPPORTING
UPPER WAVE DEPARTS AND DRIVES THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD.

THIS COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STALLED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...AND LIKELY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS MODEST INSTABILITY PERSISTS
IN THE WARM SECTOR...AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPINGES ON THE
REGION.

TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL NOT DEPART MUCH FROM NORMAL VALUES.
AMID INCREASING CUMULUS COVER...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER
70S-LOWER 80S...WITH MINIMA IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL FLATTEN SOMEWHAT IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST...WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE-WEEK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DIVERTED QUITE
LITTLE DURING THIS TIME...AND WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR DAILY ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON DETAILS AT THIS RANGE...BUT THE GENERAL
PICTURE IS THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES
ALONG THIS STALLED BOUNDARY LATE IN THE WEEK. THE PRECISE POSITION
OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL DICTATE THE COVERAGE OF ANY ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION IN THE PITTSBURGH FORECAST AREA...BUT CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS THAT THE SOUTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE AREA HAS THE
GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF MEASURABLE RAIN. THUS...POPS WERE ADJUSTED
IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK TO DEPICT A BIT MORE OF A GRADIENT.

THERE IS NO INDICATION THAT TEMPERATURES WILL DEVIATE FROM
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS BY ANY SIGNIFICANT DEGREE. MAXIMA IN THE
UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S AND MINIMA IN THE LOWER 60S SHOULD BE COMMON
AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERAL VFR THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED MVFR IN SHOWERS THROUGH
02Z. WITH DEW POINTS RISING AND SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT
SOME MVFR TO IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP 8-10Z NORTHERN PORTS AND AFTER
10Z ELSEWHERE. A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH WILL HELP PUT NORTHERN
PORTS IN LINE FOR MOST OF THE IFR CIGS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH LATE DAY TUESDAY WITH MIXING BRINGING GENERAL VFR BACK
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. ONLY VCTS LATE DAY TUESDAY WELL AHEAD OF
FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS A
WEAK FRONT PASSES...AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE LOW
PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 292158
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
558 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF PIT THOUGH MOST OF THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY
IS PROGGED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR AREA. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE WARM FRONT CROSSES OVERNIGHT...THOUGH WITH
LACK OF LOW LEVEL JET AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY LEFT THUNDER OUT
OF THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT.

A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH LATER IN THE
DAY WITH INCREASING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. MODEL PROGGED SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY ARE MARGINAL...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IS
IN QUESTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH MID-
WEEK...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THE START OF THE TUESDAY
NIGHT PERIOD...BUT THESE SHOULD WANE QUICKLY AS THEIR SUPPORTING
UPPER WAVE DEPARTS AND DRIVES THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD.

THIS COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STALLED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...AND LIKELY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS MODEST INSTABILITY PERSISTS
IN THE WARM SECTOR...AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPINGES ON THE
REGION.

TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL NOT DEPART MUCH FROM NORMAL VALUES.
AMID INCREASING CUMULUS COVER...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER
70S-LOWER 80S...WITH MINIMA IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL FLATTEN SOMEWHAT IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST...WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE-WEEK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DIVERTED QUITE
LITTLE DURING THIS TIME...AND WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR DAILY ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON DETAILS AT THIS RANGE...BUT THE GENERAL
PICTURE IS THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES
ALONG THIS STALLED BOUNDARY LATE IN THE WEEK. THE PRECISE POSITION
OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL DICTATE THE COVERAGE OF ANY ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION IN THE PITTSBURGH FORECAST AREA...BUT CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS THAT THE SOUTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE AREA HAS THE
GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF MEASURABLE RAIN. THUS...POPS WERE ADJUSTED
IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK TO DEPICT A BIT MORE OF A GRADIENT.

THERE IS NO INDICATION THAT TEMPERATURES WILL DEVIATE FROM
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS BY ANY SIGNIFICANT DEGREE. MAXIMA IN THE
UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S AND MINIMA IN THE LOWER 60S SHOULD BE COMMON
AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST EARLY THIS EVENING...DESPITE LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. DRY LOW-LEVELS WILL KEEP RESTRICTIONS LIMITED UNTIL
FURTHER SATURATION OCCURS LATER THIS EVENING. WARM FRONT WILL PASS
LIGHT RAIN MAINLY TO THE NORTH...BUT REMNANT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG A MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE IN LATER
TONIGHT AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST ARE ALONG THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR INCLUSION AT THIS TIME.

EXPECTING MAINLY MVFR CIGS FOR MOST LOCATIONS PRE-DAWN...WITH SOME
IFR ALONG THE NORTH WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY...BUT MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A SERIES
OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 292158
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
558 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF PIT THOUGH MOST OF THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY
IS PROGGED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR AREA. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE WARM FRONT CROSSES OVERNIGHT...THOUGH WITH
LACK OF LOW LEVEL JET AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY LEFT THUNDER OUT
OF THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT.

A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH LATER IN THE
DAY WITH INCREASING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. MODEL PROGGED SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY ARE MARGINAL...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IS
IN QUESTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH MID-
WEEK...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THE START OF THE TUESDAY
NIGHT PERIOD...BUT THESE SHOULD WANE QUICKLY AS THEIR SUPPORTING
UPPER WAVE DEPARTS AND DRIVES THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD.

THIS COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STALLED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...AND LIKELY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS MODEST INSTABILITY PERSISTS
IN THE WARM SECTOR...AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPINGES ON THE
REGION.

TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL NOT DEPART MUCH FROM NORMAL VALUES.
AMID INCREASING CUMULUS COVER...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER
70S-LOWER 80S...WITH MINIMA IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL FLATTEN SOMEWHAT IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST...WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE-WEEK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DIVERTED QUITE
LITTLE DURING THIS TIME...AND WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR DAILY ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON DETAILS AT THIS RANGE...BUT THE GENERAL
PICTURE IS THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES
ALONG THIS STALLED BOUNDARY LATE IN THE WEEK. THE PRECISE POSITION
OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL DICTATE THE COVERAGE OF ANY ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION IN THE PITTSBURGH FORECAST AREA...BUT CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS THAT THE SOUTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE AREA HAS THE
GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF MEASURABLE RAIN. THUS...POPS WERE ADJUSTED
IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK TO DEPICT A BIT MORE OF A GRADIENT.

THERE IS NO INDICATION THAT TEMPERATURES WILL DEVIATE FROM
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS BY ANY SIGNIFICANT DEGREE. MAXIMA IN THE
UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S AND MINIMA IN THE LOWER 60S SHOULD BE COMMON
AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST EARLY THIS EVENING...DESPITE LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. DRY LOW-LEVELS WILL KEEP RESTRICTIONS LIMITED UNTIL
FURTHER SATURATION OCCURS LATER THIS EVENING. WARM FRONT WILL PASS
LIGHT RAIN MAINLY TO THE NORTH...BUT REMNANT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG A MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE IN LATER
TONIGHT AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST ARE ALONG THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR INCLUSION AT THIS TIME.

EXPECTING MAINLY MVFR CIGS FOR MOST LOCATIONS PRE-DAWN...WITH SOME
IFR ALONG THE NORTH WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY...BUT MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A SERIES
OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291933
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
333 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVES IN TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR AVERAGE THIS WEEK...WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DESPITE THE CURRENT MOSAIC RADAR PRESENTATION...RAIN WILL BE
LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON AS IT FALLS THROUGH AND EVENTUALLY OVERCOMES
A DRY LAYER IN THE MID-LEVELS.

CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY BLOSSOMING OVER SOUTHWESTERN
OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY IS IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONGER WAVE AT
THE BASE OF THE DIGGING MID-LEVEL TROF. AS THE TROF DIGS IN AND
CLOSES OFF AT 925MB NEAR MIDNIGHT...LOW- AND MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BRINGING THE REMNANTS OF THE OH/KY
CONVECTION INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY PROVIDE THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
OVERNIGHT.

WE WILL BE BETWEEN WAVES TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A
BREAK FROM THE RAIN THREAT AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. ANOTHER WAVE WILL
DIG INTO THE BROAD UPPER TROF TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND PINWHEEL INTO
OUR AREA. INCREASED LOW-LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING WILL FEED HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FUELING
INSTABILITY. THE DAY 2 MARGINAL RISK SEEMS PRUDENT AT THIS
TIME...BUT IF WE CAN CLEAR OUT AND BOOST CAPE VALUES FURTHER...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE PASSING
WAVE. TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH MID-
WEEK...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF
THE TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD...BUT THESE SHOULD WANE QUICKLY AS THEIR
SUPPORTING UPPER WAVE DEPARTS AND DRIVES THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD.

THIS COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STALLED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...AND LIKELY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS MODEST INSTABILITY PERSISTS
IN THE WARM SECTOR...AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPINGES ON THE
REGION.

TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL NOT DEPART MUCH FROM NORMAL VALUES.
AMID INCREASING CUMULUS COVER...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER
70S-LOWER 80S...WITH MINIMA IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL FLATTEN SOMEWHAT IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST...WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE-WEEK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DIVERTED QUITE
LITTLE DURING THIS TIME...AND WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR DAILY ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON DETAILS AT THIS RANGE...BUT THE GENERAL
PICTURE IS THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES
ALONG THIS STALLED BOUNDARY LATE IN THE WEEK. THE PRECISE POSITION
OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL DICTATE THE COVERAGE OF ANY ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION IN THE PITTSBURGH FORECAST AREA...BUT CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS THAT THE SOUTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE AREA HAS THE
GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF MEASURABLE RAIN. THUS...POPS WERE ADJUSTED
IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK TO DEPICT A BIT MORE OF A GRADIENT.

THERE IS NO INDICATION THAT TEMPERATURES WILL DEVIATE FROM
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS BY ANY SIGNIFICANT DEGREE. MAXIMA IN THE
UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S AND MINIMA IN THE LOWER 60S SHOULD BE COMMON
AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST EARLY THIS EVENING...DESPITE LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS BEGINNING TO MOVE IN. DRY LOW-LEVELS WILL KEEP
RESTRICTIONS LIMITED UNTIL FURTHER SATURATION OCCURS LATER THIS
EVENING. WARM FRONT WILL PASS LIGHT RAIN MAINLY TO THE NORTH...BUT
REMNANT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG A MID-LEVEL WAVE
WILL MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST ARE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR INCLUSION AT
THIS TIME.

EXPECTING MAINLY MVFR CIGS FOR MOST LOCATIONS PRE-DAWN...WITH SOME
IFR ALONG THE NORTH WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY...BUT MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A SERIES
OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

TAX/KRAMAR





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291841
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
241 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVE IN TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR AVERAGES THIS WEEK...WITH RAIN CHANCES DAILY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONTINUE TO HOLD BACK POPS AS THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM
FRONT SLOWLY MOVES INTO EASTERN OHIO. IN THE SPAN OF 8 HOURS THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN HAS ONLY MADE IT FROM ABOUT COLUMBUS OHIO
TO WHEELING WEST VIRGINIA. AS IT ENCROACHES...A LAYER OF MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR MUST BE OVERCOME TO REACH THE GROUND. THE RESULT IS A LOT OF
VIRGA ALONG THE LEADING EDGE...AND THE REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR
IMAGERY LOOKING PESSIMISTIC.

EXPECTING THE RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE
INTO SOUTHWEST PA...MEETING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 25 TO 30
DEGREES. RAIN WILL HOLD TOGETHER A LITTLE BETTER ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY FOLLOWING THE MAIN WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WARM FRONT...AND WHERE IT CAN TAP INTO BETTER MOISTURE.

CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY BLOSSOMING OVER SOUTHWESTERN
OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY IS IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONGER WAVE AT
THE BASE OF THE DIGGING MID-LEVEL TROF. AS THE TROF DIGS IN AND
CLOSES OFF AT THE 925MB SURFACE NEAR MIDNIGHT...LOW- AND MID-LEVEL
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BRINGING THE REMNANTS OF
THE OH/KY CONVECTION INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY PROVIDE
THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER OVERNIGHT.

WE WILL BE BETWEEN WAVES TUESDAY MORNING WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A
BREAK FROM THE RAIN THREAT AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. ANOTHER WAVE WILL
DIG INTO THE BROAD UPPER TROF TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND PINWHEEL INTO
OUR AREA. INCREASED LOW-LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING WILL FEED HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FUELING
INSTABILITY. THE DAY 2 MARGINAL RISK SEEMS PRUDENT AT THIS
TIME...BUT IF WE CAN CLEAR OUT AND BOOST CAPE VALUES
FURTHER...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE PASSING WAVE.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS THERE IS
MINIMAL CHANGE EXPECTED TO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AND TROUGHING
REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS...HOWEVER AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY IN
ANY FINER DETAILS IS LACKING SO THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY
BROAD BRUSHED. AT THIS TIME THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SEEING
SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY WHEN UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ARE FAVORABLE AND SATURDAY WHEN A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH
A WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST EARLY THIS EVENING...DESPITE LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS BEGINNING TO MOVE IN. DRY LOW-LEVELS WILL KEEP
RESTRICTIONS LIMITED UNTIL FURTHER SATURATION OCCURS LATER THIS
EVENING. WARM FRONT WILL PASS LIGHT RAIN MAINLY TO THE NORTH...BUT
REMNANT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG A MID-LEVEL WAVE
WILL MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST ARE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR INCLUSION AT
THIS TIME.

EXPECTING MAINLY MVFR CIGS FOR MOST LOCATIONS PRE-DAWN...WITH SOME
IFR ALONG THE NORTH WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY...BUT MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A SERIES
OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291841
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
241 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVE IN TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR AVERAGES THIS WEEK...WITH RAIN CHANCES DAILY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONTINUE TO HOLD BACK POPS AS THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM
FRONT SLOWLY MOVES INTO EASTERN OHIO. IN THE SPAN OF 8 HOURS THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN HAS ONLY MADE IT FROM ABOUT COLUMBUS OHIO
TO WHEELING WEST VIRGINIA. AS IT ENCROACHES...A LAYER OF MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR MUST BE OVERCOME TO REACH THE GROUND. THE RESULT IS A LOT OF
VIRGA ALONG THE LEADING EDGE...AND THE REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR
IMAGERY LOOKING PESSIMISTIC.

EXPECTING THE RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE
INTO SOUTHWEST PA...MEETING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 25 TO 30
DEGREES. RAIN WILL HOLD TOGETHER A LITTLE BETTER ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY FOLLOWING THE MAIN WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WARM FRONT...AND WHERE IT CAN TAP INTO BETTER MOISTURE.

CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY BLOSSOMING OVER SOUTHWESTERN
OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY IS IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONGER WAVE AT
THE BASE OF THE DIGGING MID-LEVEL TROF. AS THE TROF DIGS IN AND
CLOSES OFF AT THE 925MB SURFACE NEAR MIDNIGHT...LOW- AND MID-LEVEL
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BRINGING THE REMNANTS OF
THE OH/KY CONVECTION INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY PROVIDE
THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER OVERNIGHT.

WE WILL BE BETWEEN WAVES TUESDAY MORNING WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A
BREAK FROM THE RAIN THREAT AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. ANOTHER WAVE WILL
DIG INTO THE BROAD UPPER TROF TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND PINWHEEL INTO
OUR AREA. INCREASED LOW-LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING WILL FEED HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FUELING
INSTABILITY. THE DAY 2 MARGINAL RISK SEEMS PRUDENT AT THIS
TIME...BUT IF WE CAN CLEAR OUT AND BOOST CAPE VALUES
FURTHER...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE PASSING WAVE.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS THERE IS
MINIMAL CHANGE EXPECTED TO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AND TROUGHING
REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS...HOWEVER AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY IN
ANY FINER DETAILS IS LACKING SO THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY
BROAD BRUSHED. AT THIS TIME THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SEEING
SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY WHEN UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ARE FAVORABLE AND SATURDAY WHEN A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH
A WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST EARLY THIS EVENING...DESPITE LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS BEGINNING TO MOVE IN. DRY LOW-LEVELS WILL KEEP
RESTRICTIONS LIMITED UNTIL FURTHER SATURATION OCCURS LATER THIS
EVENING. WARM FRONT WILL PASS LIGHT RAIN MAINLY TO THE NORTH...BUT
REMNANT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG A MID-LEVEL WAVE
WILL MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST ARE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR INCLUSION AT
THIS TIME.

EXPECTING MAINLY MVFR CIGS FOR MOST LOCATIONS PRE-DAWN...WITH SOME
IFR ALONG THE NORTH WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY...BUT MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A SERIES
OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291841
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
241 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVE IN TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR AVERAGES THIS WEEK...WITH RAIN CHANCES DAILY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONTINUE TO HOLD BACK POPS AS THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM
FRONT SLOWLY MOVES INTO EASTERN OHIO. IN THE SPAN OF 8 HOURS THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN HAS ONLY MADE IT FROM ABOUT COLUMBUS OHIO
TO WHEELING WEST VIRGINIA. AS IT ENCROACHES...A LAYER OF MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR MUST BE OVERCOME TO REACH THE GROUND. THE RESULT IS A LOT OF
VIRGA ALONG THE LEADING EDGE...AND THE REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR
IMAGERY LOOKING PESSIMISTIC.

EXPECTING THE RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE
INTO SOUTHWEST PA...MEETING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 25 TO 30
DEGREES. RAIN WILL HOLD TOGETHER A LITTLE BETTER ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY FOLLOWING THE MAIN WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WARM FRONT...AND WHERE IT CAN TAP INTO BETTER MOISTURE.

CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY BLOSSOMING OVER SOUTHWESTERN
OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY IS IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONGER WAVE AT
THE BASE OF THE DIGGING MID-LEVEL TROF. AS THE TROF DIGS IN AND
CLOSES OFF AT THE 925MB SURFACE NEAR MIDNIGHT...LOW- AND MID-LEVEL
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BRINGING THE REMNANTS OF
THE OH/KY CONVECTION INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY PROVIDE
THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER OVERNIGHT.

WE WILL BE BETWEEN WAVES TUESDAY MORNING WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A
BREAK FROM THE RAIN THREAT AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. ANOTHER WAVE WILL
DIG INTO THE BROAD UPPER TROF TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND PINWHEEL INTO
OUR AREA. INCREASED LOW-LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING WILL FEED HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FUELING
INSTABILITY. THE DAY 2 MARGINAL RISK SEEMS PRUDENT AT THIS
TIME...BUT IF WE CAN CLEAR OUT AND BOOST CAPE VALUES
FURTHER...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE PASSING WAVE.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS THERE IS
MINIMAL CHANGE EXPECTED TO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AND TROUGHING
REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS...HOWEVER AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY IN
ANY FINER DETAILS IS LACKING SO THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY
BROAD BRUSHED. AT THIS TIME THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SEEING
SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY WHEN UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ARE FAVORABLE AND SATURDAY WHEN A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH
A WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST EARLY THIS EVENING...DESPITE LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS BEGINNING TO MOVE IN. DRY LOW-LEVELS WILL KEEP
RESTRICTIONS LIMITED UNTIL FURTHER SATURATION OCCURS LATER THIS
EVENING. WARM FRONT WILL PASS LIGHT RAIN MAINLY TO THE NORTH...BUT
REMNANT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG A MID-LEVEL WAVE
WILL MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST ARE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR INCLUSION AT
THIS TIME.

EXPECTING MAINLY MVFR CIGS FOR MOST LOCATIONS PRE-DAWN...WITH SOME
IFR ALONG THE NORTH WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY...BUT MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A SERIES
OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291841
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
241 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVE IN TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR AVERAGES THIS WEEK...WITH RAIN CHANCES DAILY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONTINUE TO HOLD BACK POPS AS THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM
FRONT SLOWLY MOVES INTO EASTERN OHIO. IN THE SPAN OF 8 HOURS THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN HAS ONLY MADE IT FROM ABOUT COLUMBUS OHIO
TO WHEELING WEST VIRGINIA. AS IT ENCROACHES...A LAYER OF MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR MUST BE OVERCOME TO REACH THE GROUND. THE RESULT IS A LOT OF
VIRGA ALONG THE LEADING EDGE...AND THE REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR
IMAGERY LOOKING PESSIMISTIC.

EXPECTING THE RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE
INTO SOUTHWEST PA...MEETING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 25 TO 30
DEGREES. RAIN WILL HOLD TOGETHER A LITTLE BETTER ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY FOLLOWING THE MAIN WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WARM FRONT...AND WHERE IT CAN TAP INTO BETTER MOISTURE.

CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY BLOSSOMING OVER SOUTHWESTERN
OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY IS IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONGER WAVE AT
THE BASE OF THE DIGGING MID-LEVEL TROF. AS THE TROF DIGS IN AND
CLOSES OFF AT THE 925MB SURFACE NEAR MIDNIGHT...LOW- AND MID-LEVEL
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BRINGING THE REMNANTS OF
THE OH/KY CONVECTION INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY PROVIDE
THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER OVERNIGHT.

WE WILL BE BETWEEN WAVES TUESDAY MORNING WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A
BREAK FROM THE RAIN THREAT AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. ANOTHER WAVE WILL
DIG INTO THE BROAD UPPER TROF TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND PINWHEEL INTO
OUR AREA. INCREASED LOW-LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING WILL FEED HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FUELING
INSTABILITY. THE DAY 2 MARGINAL RISK SEEMS PRUDENT AT THIS
TIME...BUT IF WE CAN CLEAR OUT AND BOOST CAPE VALUES
FURTHER...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE PASSING WAVE.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS THERE IS
MINIMAL CHANGE EXPECTED TO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AND TROUGHING
REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS...HOWEVER AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY IN
ANY FINER DETAILS IS LACKING SO THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY
BROAD BRUSHED. AT THIS TIME THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SEEING
SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY WHEN UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ARE FAVORABLE AND SATURDAY WHEN A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH
A WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST EARLY THIS EVENING...DESPITE LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS BEGINNING TO MOVE IN. DRY LOW-LEVELS WILL KEEP
RESTRICTIONS LIMITED UNTIL FURTHER SATURATION OCCURS LATER THIS
EVENING. WARM FRONT WILL PASS LIGHT RAIN MAINLY TO THE NORTH...BUT
REMNANT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG A MID-LEVEL WAVE
WILL MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST ARE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR INCLUSION AT
THIS TIME.

EXPECTING MAINLY MVFR CIGS FOR MOST LOCATIONS PRE-DAWN...WITH SOME
IFR ALONG THE NORTH WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY...BUT MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A SERIES
OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291608
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1208 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND DRIER TODAY BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN MOVES IN THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INGESTING THE RAW HRRR TEMPERATURES SHOWED TOO MUCH OF A GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND THE COOLER NORTH WHERE THE CLOUDS AND RAIN ARE
EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. THE HRRRS HOURLY
TEMPERATURE EVOLUTION WAS...HOWEVER...QUITE PLAUSIBLE SO A BLEND
OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS MADE WITH THE TEMPERED HRRR NUMBERS FOR
HIGHS TODAY. MAY NEED TO RE-ADJUST SOME HIGHS ACROSS NORTHERN WV
LATER AS THE LATEST UPDATE MAY HAVE NOT GONE HIGH ENOUGH.

HOLDING BACK POPS A LITTLE LONGER ACROSS SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AS
THE DIGGING LOW WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO ADVANCE EASTWARD. STILL
UNIMPRESSED WITH CAPE NUMBERS PROGGED OFF THE NAM AND RAP
ANALYSIS...SO WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TO
JUST ISOLATED.

HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH HIGHEST
POPS NORTHWEST OF PITTSBURGH FOLLOWING THE TRACK OF THE LOW CENTER
OVER LAKE ERIE. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO WORK
WITH...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RAISE DAYTIME HIGHS SOME 10 DEGREES FROM
SUNDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL AS WARM ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE.
TAX/TG

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS THERE IS
MINIMAL CHANGE EXPECTED TO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AND TROUGHING
REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS...HOWEVER AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY IN
ANY FINER DETAILS IS LACKING SO THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY
BROAD BRUSHED. AT THIS TIME THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SEEING
SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY WHEN UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ARE FAVORABLE AND SATURDAY WHEN A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH
A WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING
POSSIBLE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THESE SHOULD BE LIGHT AND DO NOT
ANTICIPATE MCU IMPACT TO CIGS/VIS. LATER TODAY MORE SUBSTANTIAL
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES BUT LATEST
MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE CLOUD LEVELS WILL NOT DROP TO AOB
3KFT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT THIS
ALL DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY IS REALIZED IN LOWER LEVELS.
AT THIS POINT THE THREAT OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO REMAIN
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA...AND ANY ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE
FRONT SHOULD BE LIMITED.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A SERIES
OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291608
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1208 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND DRIER TODAY BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN MOVES IN THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INGESTING THE RAW HRRR TEMPERATURES SHOWED TOO MUCH OF A GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND THE COOLER NORTH WHERE THE CLOUDS AND RAIN ARE
EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. THE HRRRS HOURLY
TEMPERATURE EVOLUTION WAS...HOWEVER...QUITE PLAUSIBLE SO A BLEND
OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS MADE WITH THE TEMPERED HRRR NUMBERS FOR
HIGHS TODAY. MAY NEED TO RE-ADJUST SOME HIGHS ACROSS NORTHERN WV
LATER AS THE LATEST UPDATE MAY HAVE NOT GONE HIGH ENOUGH.

HOLDING BACK POPS A LITTLE LONGER ACROSS SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AS
THE DIGGING LOW WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO ADVANCE EASTWARD. STILL
UNIMPRESSED WITH CAPE NUMBERS PROGGED OFF THE NAM AND RAP
ANALYSIS...SO WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TO
JUST ISOLATED.

HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH HIGHEST
POPS NORTHWEST OF PITTSBURGH FOLLOWING THE TRACK OF THE LOW CENTER
OVER LAKE ERIE. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO WORK
WITH...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RAISE DAYTIME HIGHS SOME 10 DEGREES FROM
SUNDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL AS WARM ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE.
TAX/TG

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS THERE IS
MINIMAL CHANGE EXPECTED TO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AND TROUGHING
REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS...HOWEVER AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY IN
ANY FINER DETAILS IS LACKING SO THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY
BROAD BRUSHED. AT THIS TIME THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SEEING
SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY WHEN UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ARE FAVORABLE AND SATURDAY WHEN A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH
A WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING
POSSIBLE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THESE SHOULD BE LIGHT AND DO NOT
ANTICIPATE MCU IMPACT TO CIGS/VIS. LATER TODAY MORE SUBSTANTIAL
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES BUT LATEST
MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE CLOUD LEVELS WILL NOT DROP TO AOB
3KFT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT THIS
ALL DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY IS REALIZED IN LOWER LEVELS.
AT THIS POINT THE THREAT OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO REMAIN
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA...AND ANY ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE
FRONT SHOULD BE LIMITED.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A SERIES
OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291608
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1208 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND DRIER TODAY BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN MOVES IN THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INGESTING THE RAW HRRR TEMPERATURES SHOWED TOO MUCH OF A GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND THE COOLER NORTH WHERE THE CLOUDS AND RAIN ARE
EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. THE HRRRS HOURLY
TEMPERATURE EVOLUTION WAS...HOWEVER...QUITE PLAUSIBLE SO A BLEND
OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS MADE WITH THE TEMPERED HRRR NUMBERS FOR
HIGHS TODAY. MAY NEED TO RE-ADJUST SOME HIGHS ACROSS NORTHERN WV
LATER AS THE LATEST UPDATE MAY HAVE NOT GONE HIGH ENOUGH.

HOLDING BACK POPS A LITTLE LONGER ACROSS SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AS
THE DIGGING LOW WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO ADVANCE EASTWARD. STILL
UNIMPRESSED WITH CAPE NUMBERS PROGGED OFF THE NAM AND RAP
ANALYSIS...SO WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TO
JUST ISOLATED.

HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH HIGHEST
POPS NORTHWEST OF PITTSBURGH FOLLOWING THE TRACK OF THE LOW CENTER
OVER LAKE ERIE. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO WORK
WITH...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RAISE DAYTIME HIGHS SOME 10 DEGREES FROM
SUNDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL AS WARM ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE.
TAX/TG

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS THERE IS
MINIMAL CHANGE EXPECTED TO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AND TROUGHING
REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS...HOWEVER AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY IN
ANY FINER DETAILS IS LACKING SO THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY
BROAD BRUSHED. AT THIS TIME THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SEEING
SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY WHEN UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ARE FAVORABLE AND SATURDAY WHEN A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH
A WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING
POSSIBLE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THESE SHOULD BE LIGHT AND DO NOT
ANTICIPATE MCU IMPACT TO CIGS/VIS. LATER TODAY MORE SUBSTANTIAL
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES BUT LATEST
MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE CLOUD LEVELS WILL NOT DROP TO AOB
3KFT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT THIS
ALL DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY IS REALIZED IN LOWER LEVELS.
AT THIS POINT THE THREAT OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO REMAIN
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA...AND ANY ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE
FRONT SHOULD BE LIMITED.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A SERIES
OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291356
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
956 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND DRIER TODAY BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN MOVES IN THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID-MORNING UPDATE TWEAKING POPS AND SKY COVER TO RECENT RADAR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS RESPECTIVELY. SKY WAS TRIMMED BACK CONSIDERABLY
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION/CLOUDS MOVE ALONG OUR NORTHERN PERIPHERY INTO
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. INGESTING THE RAW HRRR
TEMPERATURES SHOWED TOO MUCH OF A GRADIENT BETWEEN THE MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
THE COOLER NORTH WHERE THE CLOUDS AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK
THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. THE HRRRS HOURLY TEMPERATURE EVOLUTION
WAS...HOWEVER...QUITE PLAUSIBLE SO A BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST
WAS MADE WITH THE TEMPERED HRRR NUMBERS FOR HIGHS TODAY. MAY NEED
TO RE-ADJUST SOME HIGHS ACROSS NORTHERN WV LATER AS THE LATEST
UPDATE MAY HAVE NOT GONE HIGH ENOUGH.

HOLDING BACK POPS A LITTLE LONGER ACROSS SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AS
THE DIGGING LOW WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO ADVANCE EASTWARD. STILL
UNIMPRESSED WITH CAPE NUMBERS PROGGED OFF THE NAM AND RAP
ANALYSIS...SO WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TO
JUST ISOLATED.

HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH HIGHEST
POPS NORTHWEST OF PITTSBURGH FOLLOWING THE TRACK OF THE LOW CENTER
OVER LAKE ERIE. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO WORK
WITH...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RAISE DAYTIME HIGHS SOME 10 DEGREES FROM
SUNDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL AS WARM ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE.
TAX/TG

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS THERE IS
MINIMAL CHANGE EXPECTED TO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AND TROUGHING
REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS...HOWEVER AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY IN
ANY FINER DETAILS IS LACKING SO THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY
BROAD BRUSHED. AT THIS TIME THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SEEING
SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY WHEN UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ARE FAVORABLE AND SATURDAY WHEN A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH
A WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING
POSSIBLE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THESE SHOULD BE LIGHT AND DO NOT
ANTICIPATE MCU IMPACT TO CIGS/VIS. LATER TODAY MORE SUBSTANTIAL
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES BUT LATEST
MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE CLOUD LEVELS WILL NOT DROP TO AOB
3KFT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT THIS
ALL DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY IS REALIZED IN LOWER LEVELS.
AT THIS POINT THE THREAT OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO REMAIN
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA...AND ANY ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE
FRONT SHOULD BE LIMITED.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A SERIES
OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291356
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
956 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND DRIER TODAY BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN MOVES IN THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID-MORNING UPDATE TWEAKING POPS AND SKY COVER TO RECENT RADAR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS RESPECTIVELY. SKY WAS TRIMMED BACK CONSIDERABLY
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION/CLOUDS MOVE ALONG OUR NORTHERN PERIPHERY INTO
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. INGESTING THE RAW HRRR
TEMPERATURES SHOWED TOO MUCH OF A GRADIENT BETWEEN THE MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
THE COOLER NORTH WHERE THE CLOUDS AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK
THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. THE HRRRS HOURLY TEMPERATURE EVOLUTION
WAS...HOWEVER...QUITE PLAUSIBLE SO A BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST
WAS MADE WITH THE TEMPERED HRRR NUMBERS FOR HIGHS TODAY. MAY NEED
TO RE-ADJUST SOME HIGHS ACROSS NORTHERN WV LATER AS THE LATEST
UPDATE MAY HAVE NOT GONE HIGH ENOUGH.

HOLDING BACK POPS A LITTLE LONGER ACROSS SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AS
THE DIGGING LOW WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO ADVANCE EASTWARD. STILL
UNIMPRESSED WITH CAPE NUMBERS PROGGED OFF THE NAM AND RAP
ANALYSIS...SO WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TO
JUST ISOLATED.

HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH HIGHEST
POPS NORTHWEST OF PITTSBURGH FOLLOWING THE TRACK OF THE LOW CENTER
OVER LAKE ERIE. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO WORK
WITH...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RAISE DAYTIME HIGHS SOME 10 DEGREES FROM
SUNDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL AS WARM ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE.
TAX/TG

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS THERE IS
MINIMAL CHANGE EXPECTED TO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AND TROUGHING
REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS...HOWEVER AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY IN
ANY FINER DETAILS IS LACKING SO THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY
BROAD BRUSHED. AT THIS TIME THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SEEING
SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY WHEN UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ARE FAVORABLE AND SATURDAY WHEN A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH
A WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING
POSSIBLE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THESE SHOULD BE LIGHT AND DO NOT
ANTICIPATE MCU IMPACT TO CIGS/VIS. LATER TODAY MORE SUBSTANTIAL
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES BUT LATEST
MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE CLOUD LEVELS WILL NOT DROP TO AOB
3KFT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT THIS
ALL DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY IS REALIZED IN LOWER LEVELS.
AT THIS POINT THE THREAT OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO REMAIN
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA...AND ANY ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE
FRONT SHOULD BE LIMITED.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A SERIES
OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291356
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
956 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND DRIER TODAY BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN MOVES IN THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID-MORNING UPDATE TWEAKING POPS AND SKY COVER TO RECENT RADAR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS RESPECTIVELY. SKY WAS TRIMMED BACK CONSIDERABLY
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION/CLOUDS MOVE ALONG OUR NORTHERN PERIPHERY INTO
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. INGESTING THE RAW HRRR
TEMPERATURES SHOWED TOO MUCH OF A GRADIENT BETWEEN THE MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
THE COOLER NORTH WHERE THE CLOUDS AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK
THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. THE HRRRS HOURLY TEMPERATURE EVOLUTION
WAS...HOWEVER...QUITE PLAUSIBLE SO A BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST
WAS MADE WITH THE TEMPERED HRRR NUMBERS FOR HIGHS TODAY. MAY NEED
TO RE-ADJUST SOME HIGHS ACROSS NORTHERN WV LATER AS THE LATEST
UPDATE MAY HAVE NOT GONE HIGH ENOUGH.

HOLDING BACK POPS A LITTLE LONGER ACROSS SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AS
THE DIGGING LOW WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO ADVANCE EASTWARD. STILL
UNIMPRESSED WITH CAPE NUMBERS PROGGED OFF THE NAM AND RAP
ANALYSIS...SO WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TO
JUST ISOLATED.

HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH HIGHEST
POPS NORTHWEST OF PITTSBURGH FOLLOWING THE TRACK OF THE LOW CENTER
OVER LAKE ERIE. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO WORK
WITH...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RAISE DAYTIME HIGHS SOME 10 DEGREES FROM
SUNDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL AS WARM ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE.
TAX/TG

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS THERE IS
MINIMAL CHANGE EXPECTED TO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AND TROUGHING
REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS...HOWEVER AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY IN
ANY FINER DETAILS IS LACKING SO THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY
BROAD BRUSHED. AT THIS TIME THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SEEING
SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY WHEN UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ARE FAVORABLE AND SATURDAY WHEN A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH
A WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING
POSSIBLE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THESE SHOULD BE LIGHT AND DO NOT
ANTICIPATE MCU IMPACT TO CIGS/VIS. LATER TODAY MORE SUBSTANTIAL
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES BUT LATEST
MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE CLOUD LEVELS WILL NOT DROP TO AOB
3KFT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT THIS
ALL DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY IS REALIZED IN LOWER LEVELS.
AT THIS POINT THE THREAT OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO REMAIN
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA...AND ANY ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE
FRONT SHOULD BE LIMITED.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A SERIES
OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291356
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
956 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND DRIER TODAY BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN MOVES IN THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID-MORNING UPDATE TWEAKING POPS AND SKY COVER TO RECENT RADAR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS RESPECTIVELY. SKY WAS TRIMMED BACK CONSIDERABLY
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION/CLOUDS MOVE ALONG OUR NORTHERN PERIPHERY INTO
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. INGESTING THE RAW HRRR
TEMPERATURES SHOWED TOO MUCH OF A GRADIENT BETWEEN THE MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
THE COOLER NORTH WHERE THE CLOUDS AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK
THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. THE HRRRS HOURLY TEMPERATURE EVOLUTION
WAS...HOWEVER...QUITE PLAUSIBLE SO A BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST
WAS MADE WITH THE TEMPERED HRRR NUMBERS FOR HIGHS TODAY. MAY NEED
TO RE-ADJUST SOME HIGHS ACROSS NORTHERN WV LATER AS THE LATEST
UPDATE MAY HAVE NOT GONE HIGH ENOUGH.

HOLDING BACK POPS A LITTLE LONGER ACROSS SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AS
THE DIGGING LOW WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO ADVANCE EASTWARD. STILL
UNIMPRESSED WITH CAPE NUMBERS PROGGED OFF THE NAM AND RAP
ANALYSIS...SO WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TO
JUST ISOLATED.

HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH HIGHEST
POPS NORTHWEST OF PITTSBURGH FOLLOWING THE TRACK OF THE LOW CENTER
OVER LAKE ERIE. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO WORK
WITH...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RAISE DAYTIME HIGHS SOME 10 DEGREES FROM
SUNDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL AS WARM ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE.
TAX/TG

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS THERE IS
MINIMAL CHANGE EXPECTED TO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AND TROUGHING
REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS...HOWEVER AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY IN
ANY FINER DETAILS IS LACKING SO THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY
BROAD BRUSHED. AT THIS TIME THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SEEING
SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY WHEN UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ARE FAVORABLE AND SATURDAY WHEN A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH
A WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING
POSSIBLE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THESE SHOULD BE LIGHT AND DO NOT
ANTICIPATE MCU IMPACT TO CIGS/VIS. LATER TODAY MORE SUBSTANTIAL
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES BUT LATEST
MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE CLOUD LEVELS WILL NOT DROP TO AOB
3KFT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT THIS
ALL DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY IS REALIZED IN LOWER LEVELS.
AT THIS POINT THE THREAT OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO REMAIN
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA...AND ANY ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE
FRONT SHOULD BE LIMITED.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A SERIES
OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291013
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
613 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER TEMPERATURES REBOUND TODAY FROM YESTERDAYS COLD
VALUES...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS LIKELY TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH 6AM UPDATE...HAVE PULLED PRECIPITATION FROM I-80 CORRIDOR.
SHOWERS COMING ACROSS LAKE ERIE HAVE DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE...AND
DO NOT THINK COVERAGE WARRANTS SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWER MENTION. HAVE
ALSO INCREASED POPS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO WESTERN
OHIO...AND LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR/RAP SHOW SHOWERS HOLDING
TOGETHER MORE THAN IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

PRIMARY RAIN CONCERN WILL COME FROM LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM
ILLINOIS INTO WESTERN OHIO TODAY. MAIN AXIS OF RAIN SO FAR IS
ALONG THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM CHICAGO SOUTH INTO TENNESSEE.
HIGH- RESOLUTION MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DETERMINING WHERE
HEAVIEST RAIN COULD OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST. AGREE
WITH SPC PLACING THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER SOUTHWEST
OF OUR REGION WHERE EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR WILL BE THE HIGHEST.
STILL...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
OHIO IF CLOUD COVER BREAKS UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTIVE
HEATING. HAVE STILL STUCK WITH CHANCE POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS IN OHIO CONSIDERING DECENT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR TO BE OVERCOME
IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS.

HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH HIGHEST
POPS NORTHWEST OF PITTSBURGH FOLLOWING THE TRACK OF THE LOW CENTER
OVER LAKE ERIE. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO WORK
WITH...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RAISE DAYTIME HIGHS SOME 10 DEGREES FROM
SUNDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL AS WARM ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS THERE IS
MINIMAL CHANGE EXPECTED TO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AND TROUGHING
REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS...HOWEVER AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY IN
ANY FINER DETAILS IS LACKING SO THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY
BROAD BRUSHED. AT THIS TIME THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SEEING
SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY WHEN UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ARE FAVORABLE AND SATURDAY WHEN A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH
A WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING
POSSIBLE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THESE SHOULD BE LIGHT AND DO NOT
ANTICIPATE MCU IMPACT TO CIGS/VIS. LATER TODAY MORE SUBSTANTIAL
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES BUT LATEST
MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE CLOUD LEVELS WILL NOT DROP TO AOB
3KFT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT THIS
ALL DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY IS REALIZED IN LOWER LEVELS.
AT THIS POINT THE THREAT OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO REMAIN
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA...AND ANY ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE
FRONT SHOULD BE LIMITED.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A SERIES
OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291013
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
613 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER TEMPERATURES REBOUND TODAY FROM YESTERDAYS COLD
VALUES...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS LIKELY TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH 6AM UPDATE...HAVE PULLED PRECIPITATION FROM I-80 CORRIDOR.
SHOWERS COMING ACROSS LAKE ERIE HAVE DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE...AND
DO NOT THINK COVERAGE WARRANTS SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWER MENTION. HAVE
ALSO INCREASED POPS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO WESTERN
OHIO...AND LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR/RAP SHOW SHOWERS HOLDING
TOGETHER MORE THAN IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

PRIMARY RAIN CONCERN WILL COME FROM LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM
ILLINOIS INTO WESTERN OHIO TODAY. MAIN AXIS OF RAIN SO FAR IS
ALONG THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM CHICAGO SOUTH INTO TENNESSEE.
HIGH- RESOLUTION MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DETERMINING WHERE
HEAVIEST RAIN COULD OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST. AGREE
WITH SPC PLACING THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER SOUTHWEST
OF OUR REGION WHERE EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR WILL BE THE HIGHEST.
STILL...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
OHIO IF CLOUD COVER BREAKS UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTIVE
HEATING. HAVE STILL STUCK WITH CHANCE POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS IN OHIO CONSIDERING DECENT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR TO BE OVERCOME
IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS.

HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH HIGHEST
POPS NORTHWEST OF PITTSBURGH FOLLOWING THE TRACK OF THE LOW CENTER
OVER LAKE ERIE. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO WORK
WITH...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RAISE DAYTIME HIGHS SOME 10 DEGREES FROM
SUNDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL AS WARM ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS THERE IS
MINIMAL CHANGE EXPECTED TO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AND TROUGHING
REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS...HOWEVER AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY IN
ANY FINER DETAILS IS LACKING SO THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY
BROAD BRUSHED. AT THIS TIME THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SEEING
SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY WHEN UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ARE FAVORABLE AND SATURDAY WHEN A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH
A WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING
POSSIBLE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THESE SHOULD BE LIGHT AND DO NOT
ANTICIPATE MCU IMPACT TO CIGS/VIS. LATER TODAY MORE SUBSTANTIAL
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES BUT LATEST
MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE CLOUD LEVELS WILL NOT DROP TO AOB
3KFT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT THIS
ALL DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY IS REALIZED IN LOWER LEVELS.
AT THIS POINT THE THREAT OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO REMAIN
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA...AND ANY ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE
FRONT SHOULD BE LIMITED.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A SERIES
OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290818
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
418 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER TEMPERATURES REBOUND TODAY FROM YESTERDAYS COLD
VALUES...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS LIKELY TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FIRST PRECIPITATION CONCERN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL COME
FROM AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS TRACKING ACROSS LAKE HURON SOUTH
OVER LAKE ERIE. ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIE
OFF...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND DAWN ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR.

PRIMARY RAIN CONCERN WILL COME FROM LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM
ILLINOIS INTO WESTERN OHIO TODAY. MAIN AXIS OF RAIN SO FAR IS ALONG
THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM CHICAGO SOUTH INTO TENNESSEE. HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DETERMINING WHERE HEAVIEST
RAIN COULD OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST. AGREE WITH SPC
PLACING THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER SOUTHWEST OF OUR
REGION WHERE EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR WILL BE THE HIGHEST.
STILL...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
OHIO IF CLOUD COVER BREAKS UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTIVE
HEATING. HAVE STILL STUCK WITH CHANCE POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS IN OHIO CONSIDERING DECENT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR TO BE OVERCOME IN
THE LOW AND MID LEVELS.

HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH HIGHEST
POPS NORTHWEST OF PITTSBURGH FOLLOWING THE TRACK OF THE LOW CENTER
OVER LAKE ERIE. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO WORK
WITH...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RAISE DAYTIME HIGHS SOME 10 DEGREES FROM
SUNDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL AS WARM ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS THERE IS
MINIMAL CHANGE EXPECTED TO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AND TROUGHING
REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS...HOWEVER AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY IN
ANY FINER DETAILS IS LACKING SO THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY
BROAD BRUSHED. AT THIS TIME THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SEEING
SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY WHEN UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ARE FAVORABLE AND SATURDAY WHEN A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH
A WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PATCHY MVFR TO IFR FOG REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THROUGH EARLY
MORNING AS SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LESSEN...HOWEVER...CLOUD
COVERAGE INVADING FROM THE WEST MAY SHORTLY PUT THE BRAKES ON
FURTHER DECREASES IN TEMPERATURE. WITH THAT IN MIND AND LATEST
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS STILL SHOWING A 4 TO 5 DEGREE SPREAD ON
AVERAGE...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF VIS RETRICTIONS IN LATEST TAF
UPDATE AS THE CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME LOOKS TOO SMALL
TO INCLUDE. AFTER ANY MORNING FOG...VFR MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A SERIES
OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290818
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
418 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER TEMPERATURES REBOUND TODAY FROM YESTERDAYS COLD
VALUES...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS LIKELY TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FIRST PRECIPITATION CONCERN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL COME
FROM AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS TRACKING ACROSS LAKE HURON SOUTH
OVER LAKE ERIE. ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIE
OFF...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND DAWN ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR.

PRIMARY RAIN CONCERN WILL COME FROM LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM
ILLINOIS INTO WESTERN OHIO TODAY. MAIN AXIS OF RAIN SO FAR IS ALONG
THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM CHICAGO SOUTH INTO TENNESSEE. HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DETERMINING WHERE HEAVIEST
RAIN COULD OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST. AGREE WITH SPC
PLACING THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER SOUTHWEST OF OUR
REGION WHERE EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR WILL BE THE HIGHEST.
STILL...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
OHIO IF CLOUD COVER BREAKS UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTIVE
HEATING. HAVE STILL STUCK WITH CHANCE POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS IN OHIO CONSIDERING DECENT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR TO BE OVERCOME IN
THE LOW AND MID LEVELS.

HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH HIGHEST
POPS NORTHWEST OF PITTSBURGH FOLLOWING THE TRACK OF THE LOW CENTER
OVER LAKE ERIE. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO WORK
WITH...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RAISE DAYTIME HIGHS SOME 10 DEGREES FROM
SUNDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL AS WARM ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS THERE IS
MINIMAL CHANGE EXPECTED TO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AND TROUGHING
REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS...HOWEVER AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY IN
ANY FINER DETAILS IS LACKING SO THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY
BROAD BRUSHED. AT THIS TIME THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SEEING
SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY WHEN UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ARE FAVORABLE AND SATURDAY WHEN A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH
A WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PATCHY MVFR TO IFR FOG REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THROUGH EARLY
MORNING AS SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LESSEN...HOWEVER...CLOUD
COVERAGE INVADING FROM THE WEST MAY SHORTLY PUT THE BRAKES ON
FURTHER DECREASES IN TEMPERATURE. WITH THAT IN MIND AND LATEST
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS STILL SHOWING A 4 TO 5 DEGREE SPREAD ON
AVERAGE...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF VIS RETRICTIONS IN LATEST TAF
UPDATE AS THE CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME LOOKS TOO SMALL
TO INCLUDE. AFTER ANY MORNING FOG...VFR MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A SERIES
OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290818
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
418 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER TEMPERATURES REBOUND TODAY FROM YESTERDAYS COLD
VALUES...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS LIKELY TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FIRST PRECIPITATION CONCERN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL COME
FROM AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS TRACKING ACROSS LAKE HURON SOUTH
OVER LAKE ERIE. ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIE
OFF...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND DAWN ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR.

PRIMARY RAIN CONCERN WILL COME FROM LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM
ILLINOIS INTO WESTERN OHIO TODAY. MAIN AXIS OF RAIN SO FAR IS ALONG
THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM CHICAGO SOUTH INTO TENNESSEE. HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DETERMINING WHERE HEAVIEST
RAIN COULD OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST. AGREE WITH SPC
PLACING THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER SOUTHWEST OF OUR
REGION WHERE EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR WILL BE THE HIGHEST.
STILL...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
OHIO IF CLOUD COVER BREAKS UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTIVE
HEATING. HAVE STILL STUCK WITH CHANCE POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS IN OHIO CONSIDERING DECENT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR TO BE OVERCOME IN
THE LOW AND MID LEVELS.

HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH HIGHEST
POPS NORTHWEST OF PITTSBURGH FOLLOWING THE TRACK OF THE LOW CENTER
OVER LAKE ERIE. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO WORK
WITH...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RAISE DAYTIME HIGHS SOME 10 DEGREES FROM
SUNDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL AS WARM ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS THERE IS
MINIMAL CHANGE EXPECTED TO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AND TROUGHING
REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS...HOWEVER AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY IN
ANY FINER DETAILS IS LACKING SO THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY
BROAD BRUSHED. AT THIS TIME THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SEEING
SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY WHEN UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ARE FAVORABLE AND SATURDAY WHEN A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH
A WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PATCHY MVFR TO IFR FOG REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THROUGH EARLY
MORNING AS SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LESSEN...HOWEVER...CLOUD
COVERAGE INVADING FROM THE WEST MAY SHORTLY PUT THE BRAKES ON
FURTHER DECREASES IN TEMPERATURE. WITH THAT IN MIND AND LATEST
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS STILL SHOWING A 4 TO 5 DEGREE SPREAD ON
AVERAGE...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF VIS RETRICTIONS IN LATEST TAF
UPDATE AS THE CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME LOOKS TOO SMALL
TO INCLUDE. AFTER ANY MORNING FOG...VFR MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A SERIES
OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290818
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
418 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER TEMPERATURES REBOUND TODAY FROM YESTERDAYS COLD
VALUES...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS LIKELY TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FIRST PRECIPITATION CONCERN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL COME
FROM AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS TRACKING ACROSS LAKE HURON SOUTH
OVER LAKE ERIE. ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIE
OFF...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND DAWN ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR.

PRIMARY RAIN CONCERN WILL COME FROM LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM
ILLINOIS INTO WESTERN OHIO TODAY. MAIN AXIS OF RAIN SO FAR IS ALONG
THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM CHICAGO SOUTH INTO TENNESSEE. HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DETERMINING WHERE HEAVIEST
RAIN COULD OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST. AGREE WITH SPC
PLACING THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER SOUTHWEST OF OUR
REGION WHERE EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR WILL BE THE HIGHEST.
STILL...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
OHIO IF CLOUD COVER BREAKS UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTIVE
HEATING. HAVE STILL STUCK WITH CHANCE POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS IN OHIO CONSIDERING DECENT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR TO BE OVERCOME IN
THE LOW AND MID LEVELS.

HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH HIGHEST
POPS NORTHWEST OF PITTSBURGH FOLLOWING THE TRACK OF THE LOW CENTER
OVER LAKE ERIE. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO WORK
WITH...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RAISE DAYTIME HIGHS SOME 10 DEGREES FROM
SUNDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL AS WARM ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS THERE IS
MINIMAL CHANGE EXPECTED TO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AND TROUGHING
REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS...HOWEVER AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY IN
ANY FINER DETAILS IS LACKING SO THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY
BROAD BRUSHED. AT THIS TIME THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SEEING
SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY WHEN UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ARE FAVORABLE AND SATURDAY WHEN A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH
A WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PATCHY MVFR TO IFR FOG REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THROUGH EARLY
MORNING AS SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LESSEN...HOWEVER...CLOUD
COVERAGE INVADING FROM THE WEST MAY SHORTLY PUT THE BRAKES ON
FURTHER DECREASES IN TEMPERATURE. WITH THAT IN MIND AND LATEST
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS STILL SHOWING A 4 TO 5 DEGREE SPREAD ON
AVERAGE...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF VIS RETRICTIONS IN LATEST TAF
UPDATE AS THE CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME LOOKS TOO SMALL
TO INCLUDE. AFTER ANY MORNING FOG...VFR MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A SERIES
OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290705
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
305 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER TEMPERATURES REBOUND TODAY FROM YESTERDAYS COLD
VALUES...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS LIKELY TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FIRST PRECIPITATION CONCERN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL COME
FROM AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS TRACKING ACROSS LAKE HURON SOUTH
OVER LAKE ERIE. ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIE
OFF...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND DAWN ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR.

PRIMARY RAIN CONCERN WILL COME FROM LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM
ILLINOIS INTO WESTERN OHIO TODAY. MAIN AXIS OF RAIN SO FAR IS ALONG
THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM CHICAGO SOUTH INTO TENNESSEE. HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DETERMINING WHERE HEAVIEST
RAIN COULD OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST. AGREE WITH SPC
PLACING THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER SOUTHWEST OF OUR
REGION WHERE EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR WILL BE THE HIGHEST.
STILL...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
OHIO IF CLOUD COVER BREAKS UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTIVE
HEATING. HAVE STILL STUCK WITH CHANCE POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS IN OHIO CONSIDERING DECENT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR TO BE OVERCOME IN
THE LOW AND MID LEVELS.

HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH HIGHEST
POPS NORTHWEST OF PITTSBURGH FOLLOWING THE TRACK OF THE LOW CENTER
OVER LAKE ERIE. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO WORK
WITH...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RAISE DAYTIME HIGHS SOME 10 DEGREES FROM
SUNDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL AS WARM ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UNSETTLED PATTERN. WITH A
FRONT REMAINING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT...STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO NAIL DOWN DRY PERIODS THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR STRATOCU SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AT DUJ AS
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN. PATCHY MVFR TO IFR FOG IS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PIT AS WINDS DIMINISH. AFTER ANY
MORNING FOG...VFR MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE MONDAY
AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
DAY WITH THE FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A SERIES
OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290705
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
305 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER TEMPERATURES REBOUND TODAY FROM YESTERDAYS COLD
VALUES...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS LIKELY TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FIRST PRECIPITATION CONCERN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL COME
FROM AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS TRACKING ACROSS LAKE HURON SOUTH
OVER LAKE ERIE. ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIE
OFF...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND DAWN ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR.

PRIMARY RAIN CONCERN WILL COME FROM LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM
ILLINOIS INTO WESTERN OHIO TODAY. MAIN AXIS OF RAIN SO FAR IS ALONG
THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM CHICAGO SOUTH INTO TENNESSEE. HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DETERMINING WHERE HEAVIEST
RAIN COULD OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST. AGREE WITH SPC
PLACING THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER SOUTHWEST OF OUR
REGION WHERE EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR WILL BE THE HIGHEST.
STILL...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
OHIO IF CLOUD COVER BREAKS UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTIVE
HEATING. HAVE STILL STUCK WITH CHANCE POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS IN OHIO CONSIDERING DECENT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR TO BE OVERCOME IN
THE LOW AND MID LEVELS.

HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH HIGHEST
POPS NORTHWEST OF PITTSBURGH FOLLOWING THE TRACK OF THE LOW CENTER
OVER LAKE ERIE. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO WORK
WITH...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RAISE DAYTIME HIGHS SOME 10 DEGREES FROM
SUNDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL AS WARM ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UNSETTLED PATTERN. WITH A
FRONT REMAINING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT...STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO NAIL DOWN DRY PERIODS THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR STRATOCU SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AT DUJ AS
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN. PATCHY MVFR TO IFR FOG IS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PIT AS WINDS DIMINISH. AFTER ANY
MORNING FOG...VFR MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE MONDAY
AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
DAY WITH THE FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A SERIES
OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290705
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
305 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER TEMPERATURES REBOUND TODAY FROM YESTERDAYS COLD
VALUES...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS LIKELY TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FIRST PRECIPITATION CONCERN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL COME
FROM AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS TRACKING ACROSS LAKE HURON SOUTH
OVER LAKE ERIE. ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIE
OFF...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND DAWN ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR.

PRIMARY RAIN CONCERN WILL COME FROM LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM
ILLINOIS INTO WESTERN OHIO TODAY. MAIN AXIS OF RAIN SO FAR IS ALONG
THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM CHICAGO SOUTH INTO TENNESSEE. HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DETERMINING WHERE HEAVIEST
RAIN COULD OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST. AGREE WITH SPC
PLACING THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER SOUTHWEST OF OUR
REGION WHERE EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR WILL BE THE HIGHEST.
STILL...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
OHIO IF CLOUD COVER BREAKS UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTIVE
HEATING. HAVE STILL STUCK WITH CHANCE POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS IN OHIO CONSIDERING DECENT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR TO BE OVERCOME IN
THE LOW AND MID LEVELS.

HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH HIGHEST
POPS NORTHWEST OF PITTSBURGH FOLLOWING THE TRACK OF THE LOW CENTER
OVER LAKE ERIE. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO WORK
WITH...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RAISE DAYTIME HIGHS SOME 10 DEGREES FROM
SUNDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL AS WARM ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UNSETTLED PATTERN. WITH A
FRONT REMAINING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT...STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO NAIL DOWN DRY PERIODS THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR STRATOCU SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AT DUJ AS
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN. PATCHY MVFR TO IFR FOG IS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PIT AS WINDS DIMINISH. AFTER ANY
MORNING FOG...VFR MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE MONDAY
AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
DAY WITH THE FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A SERIES
OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290404
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1204 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MORE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY BY MONDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WITH MIDNIGHT UPDATE...UPDATED FOR HOURLY TRENDS OF TEMPERATURE
AND SKY COVER. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

COLD FLOW OFF THE SURFACE SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED STRATOCUMULUS
FORMATION OVER THE NORTHERN AND RIDGE ZONES TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...UPPER
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALREADY ENCROACHING OVER UPPER OHIO
VALLEY AIRSPACE AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE DIGGING TOWARD THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH ENTRENCHED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.

WARM ADVECTION IS ADVANCE OF THAT DISTURBANCE WILL SUPPORT A
MONDAY WARM UP TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THE AVERAGES...BUT RAIN
CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE AS EVENING APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE IS LIKELY TO SPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT...BUT TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCE AND
RESULTING PRECIP SUPPORT AND INSTABILITY ARE QUESTIONABLE
ESPECIALLY AS RELATED TO LATE NIGHT WEATHER...SO CHANGES WERE
MINIMAL.

A SERIES OF SUCH DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH ARE
PROJECTED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR
CHANCES POPS AND BARELY SUB AVERAGE TEMPS ALREADY PROGGED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UNSETTLED PATTERN. WITH A
FRONT REMAINING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT...STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO NAIL DOWN DRY PERIODS THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR STRATOCU SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AT DUJ AS
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN. PATCHY MVFR TO IFR FOG IS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PIT AS WINDS DIMINISH. AFTER ANY
MORNING FOG...VFR MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE MONDAY
AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
DAY WITH THE FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A SERIES
OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290112
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
912 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MORE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY BY MONDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LATE EVE UPDATE FEATURED SOME PRECIP PROB...CLOUD...AND TEMP
TWEAKS AS REMAINING SHOWERS HAVE RAPIDLY FADED.

COLD FLOW OFF THE SURFACE SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED STRATOCUMULUS
FORMATION OVER THE NORTHERN AND RIDGE ZONES TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...UPPER
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALREADY ENCROACHING OVER UPPER OHIO
VALLEY AIRSPACE AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE DIGGING TOWARD THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH ENTRENCHED OVER THE EASERN CONUS.

WARM ADVECTION IS ADVANCE OF THAT DISTURBANCE WILL SUPPORT A
MONDAY WARM UP TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THE AVERAGES...BUT RAIN
CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE AS EVENING APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE IS LIKELY TO SPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT...BUT TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCE AND
RESULTING PRECIP SUPPORT AND INSTABILITY ARE QUESTIONABLE
ESPECIALLY AS RELATED TO LATE NIGHT WEATHER...SO CHANGES WERE
MINIMAL.

A SERIES OF SUCH DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH ARE
PROJECTED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR
CHANCES POPS AND BARELY SUB AVERAGE TEMPS ALREADY PROGGED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UNSETTLED PATTERN. WITH A
FRONT REMAINING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT...STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO NAIL DOWN DRY PERIODS THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR STRATOCU SHOULD GRADUALY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGING
BUILDS IN...THOUGH FKL/DUJ ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE LAST PORTS TO
SEE CLEARING. PATCHY MVFR TO IFR FOG IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PIT AS WINDS DIMINISH. AFTER ANY MORNING
FOG...VFR MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE MONDAY AS A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY
WITH THE FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A SERIES
OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/07





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290112
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
912 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MORE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY BY MONDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LATE EVE UPDATE FEATURED SOME PRECIP PROB...CLOUD...AND TEMP
TWEAKS AS REMAINING SHOWERS HAVE RAPIDLY FADED.

COLD FLOW OFF THE SURFACE SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED STRATOCUMULUS
FORMATION OVER THE NORTHERN AND RIDGE ZONES TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...UPPER
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALREADY ENCROACHING OVER UPPER OHIO
VALLEY AIRSPACE AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE DIGGING TOWARD THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH ENTRENCHED OVER THE EASERN CONUS.

WARM ADVECTION IS ADVANCE OF THAT DISTURBANCE WILL SUPPORT A
MONDAY WARM UP TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THE AVERAGES...BUT RAIN
CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE AS EVENING APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE IS LIKELY TO SPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT...BUT TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCE AND
RESULTING PRECIP SUPPORT AND INSTABILITY ARE QUESTIONABLE
ESPECIALLY AS RELATED TO LATE NIGHT WEATHER...SO CHANGES WERE
MINIMAL.

A SERIES OF SUCH DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH ARE
PROJECTED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR
CHANCES POPS AND BARELY SUB AVERAGE TEMPS ALREADY PROGGED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UNSETTLED PATTERN. WITH A
FRONT REMAINING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT...STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO NAIL DOWN DRY PERIODS THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR STRATOCU SHOULD GRADUALY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGING
BUILDS IN...THOUGH FKL/DUJ ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE LAST PORTS TO
SEE CLEARING. PATCHY MVFR TO IFR FOG IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PIT AS WINDS DIMINISH. AFTER ANY MORNING
FOG...VFR MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE MONDAY AS A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY
WITH THE FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A SERIES
OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/07




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 282206
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
606 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MORE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY BY MONDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE EARLY EVE UPDATE AS REMAINING SHOWERS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS TEMPS FALL BELOW CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS
AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES.

COLD FLOW OFF THE SURFACE SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED STRATOCUMULUS
FORMATION...ESPCIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...ANY FULL CLEARING WILL BE TEMPORARY AS UPPER AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALREADY STREAMING ACROSS THE WESTERN OHIO BORDER
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE DIGGING TOWARD THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
ENTRENCHED OVER THE EASERN CONUS.

WARM ADVECTION IS ADVANCE OF THAT DISTURBANCE WILL SUPPORT A
MONDAY WARM UP TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THE AVERAGES...BUT RAIN
CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE AS EVENING APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE IS LIKELY TO SPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT...BUT TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCE AND
RESULTING PRECIP SUPPORT AND INSTABILITY ARE QUESTIONABLE
ESPECIALLY AS RELATED TO LATE NIGHT WEATHER...SO CHANGES WERE
MINIMAL.

A SERIES OF SUCH DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH ARE
PROJECTED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR
CHANCES POPS AND BARELY SUB AVERAGE TEMPS ALREADY PROGGED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UNSETTLED PATTERN. WITH A
FRONT REMAINING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT...STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO NAIL DOWN DRY PERIODS THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR STRATOCU AND SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALY DIMINISH
THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS AN UPPER LOW EXITS THE REGION. PATCHY
MVFR TO IFR FOG IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PIT
AS WINDS DIMINISH. AFTER ANY MORNING FOG...VFR MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A SERIES
OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/07





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 282206
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
606 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MORE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY BY MONDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE EARLY EVE UPDATE AS REMAINING SHOWERS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS TEMPS FALL BELOW CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS
AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES.

COLD FLOW OFF THE SURFACE SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED STRATOCUMULUS
FORMATION...ESPCIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...ANY FULL CLEARING WILL BE TEMPORARY AS UPPER AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALREADY STREAMING ACROSS THE WESTERN OHIO BORDER
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE DIGGING TOWARD THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
ENTRENCHED OVER THE EASERN CONUS.

WARM ADVECTION IS ADVANCE OF THAT DISTURBANCE WILL SUPPORT A
MONDAY WARM UP TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THE AVERAGES...BUT RAIN
CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE AS EVENING APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE IS LIKELY TO SPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT...BUT TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCE AND
RESULTING PRECIP SUPPORT AND INSTABILITY ARE QUESTIONABLE
ESPECIALLY AS RELATED TO LATE NIGHT WEATHER...SO CHANGES WERE
MINIMAL.

A SERIES OF SUCH DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH ARE
PROJECTED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR
CHANCES POPS AND BARELY SUB AVERAGE TEMPS ALREADY PROGGED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UNSETTLED PATTERN. WITH A
FRONT REMAINING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT...STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO NAIL DOWN DRY PERIODS THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR STRATOCU AND SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALY DIMINISH
THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS AN UPPER LOW EXITS THE REGION. PATCHY
MVFR TO IFR FOG IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PIT
AS WINDS DIMINISH. AFTER ANY MORNING FOG...VFR MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A SERIES
OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/07




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281828
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
228 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL GREET THE NEW WEEK AS A
PERSISTENT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW-LEVEL STRATOCU DECK REMAINS EXPANSIVE...BUT STRONG BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW HAS MIXED DRIER AIR IN AND IS WORKING TO CREATE BREAKS.
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE HAS LEAD TO CLEARING
AND WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE WESTERN EDGE OF OUR CLOUD DECK AS IT
MOVES IN THROUGH LATE EVENING. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN HELD IN
CHECK...BUT THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
JUMP UP A FEW DEGREES LOCALLY.

CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE MOISTURE QUICKLY
ERODING...RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY CEASE. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE
FAIRLY DRY WITH THE WEAK RIDGE AT LEAST TEMPORARILY IN CONTROL.
FLOW WILL BACK TO SOUTHERLY AS THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE PASSES BY
MIDDAY. A STRONG WARMUP IS EXPECTED...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD
AT OR JUST BELOW THE AVERAGE VALUES.

AS QUICKLY AS THE RIDGE MOVES IN...IT MOVES OUT. MONDAY MORNING...ANOTHER
LOW WILL DROP OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS DIVING INTO THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF LAKE MICHIGAN. ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY...THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS
STRENGTHEN AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW SLOWS DOWN. THIS TREND
KEEPS POPS OUT OF THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST UNTIL THE
WARM FRONT APPROACHES LATE MONDAY EVENING. LIMITED THUNDER
POTENTIAL WITH THE APPROACHING LOW AS CAPE VALUES THROUGH EASTERN
OHIO ARE MODEST AT BEST.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT LIFTING A WARM FRONT ACROSS
THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE A CROSSING BAND OF LIKELY POPS WITH A
BRIEF SHOT OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND 305-310K ISENTROPIC LIFT.
MAINTAINING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL
ELEVATED CONVECTION...NAM/GFS EVEN SHOW SURFACE-BASED CAPE
SNEAKING INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES PRIOR TO 12Z TUESDAY.

SURFACE LOW PASSES JUST TO THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. A FEW
SHRA/TSRA WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING...AND INSTABILITY AND
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SUFFICIENT TO INCREASE COVERAGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WHILE SOME MODEST SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT...MIDLEVEL
FLOW LOOKS A BIT TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT.
MARGINAL RISK ISSUED BY SPC LOOKS APPROPRIATE.

YET ANOTHER MIDLEVEL WAVE WILL DIG ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATER ON
TUESDAY AND ROTATE ACROSS TUESDAY NIGHT. DISTURBANCE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP SOME SCATTERED SHRA THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT
KEPT POPS AND THUNDER COVERAGE A BIT LOWER COMPARED TO MONDAY
NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT IS WEAKER TO NONEXISTANT.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...WITH A DIURNAL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE. MORE SPEED THAN VERTICAL SHEAR DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM ONCE
AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO JUST A TOUCH BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UNSETTLED PATTERN. WITH A
FRONT REMAINING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT...STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO NAIL DOWN DRY PERIODS THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPANSIVE STRATOCU DECK LIFTING AND SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF DECAY
AS STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW MIXES IN DRIER AIR AND A RIDGE
PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. STILL...MVFR AND SPOTTY IFR CONDTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PULLS
AWAY. LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS...WHERE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT WITH SOME CLEARING GOING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUIDANCE SHOWING LIGHT MVFR FOG
DEVELOPMENT FOR MOST TERMINALS...AND THIS SEEMS PRUDENT GIVEN THAT
DEWPOINTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL OFF THIS EVENING.

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR ALL LOCATIONS MONDAY AS THE RIDGE
TAKES CONTROL WITH DRIER WEATHER.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER SYSTEM DIVING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT COULD
BRING ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL KEEP AT
LEAST A CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281756
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
156 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL GREET THE NEW WEEK AS A
PERSISTENT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW-LEVEL STRATOCU DECK REMAINS EXPANSIVE...BUT STRONG BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW HAS MIXED DRIER AIR IN AND IS WORKING TO CREATE BREAKS.
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE HAS LEAD TO CLEARING
AND WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE WESTERN EDGE OF OUR CLOUD DECK AS IT
MOVES IN THROUGH LATE EVENING. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN HELD IN
CHECK...BUT THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
JUMP UP A FEW DEGREES LOCALLY.

CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE MOISTURE QUICKLY
ERODING...RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY CEASE. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE
FAIRLY DRY WITH THE WEAK RIDGE AT LEAST TEMPORARILY IN CONTROL.
FLOW WILL BACK TO SOUTHERLY AS THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE PASSES BY
MIDDAY. A STRONG WARMUP IS EXPECTED...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD
AT OR JUST BELOW THE AVERAGE VALUES.

AS QUICKLY AS THE RIDGE MOVES IN...IT MOVES OUT. MONDAY MORNING...ANOTHER
LOW WILL DROP OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS DIVING INTO THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF LAKE MICHIGAN. ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY...THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS
STRENGTHEN AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW SLOWS DOWN. THIS TREND
KEEPS POPS OUT OF THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST UNTIL THE
WARM FRONT APPROACHES LATE MONDAY EVENING. LIMITED THUNDER
POTENTIAL WITH THE APPROACHING LOW AS CAPE VALUES THROUGH EASTERN
OHIO ARE MODEST AT BEST.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA AS A
WARM FRONT CROSSES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE...AND THE CONSENSUS IN LATEST
RUNS INDICATES THE TIMING OFF THE DRY SLOT ALLOWING FOR A BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MID TO LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A MODEST INCREASE
IN SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE ON THE
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...RAISING THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS. THIS WOULD MORE LIKELY BE ALONG A
LINE AS WINDS ALOFT WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN OHIO THROUGH SOUTHERN
INDIANA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS HINT AT A LINE OF STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT MID-AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUING AHEAD
ALONG THE OUTFLOW. MODEL BRN VALUES SHOW A DECENT BALANCE OF SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY...SO ITS POSSIBLE THE LINE MAY BE ABLE TO BE
MAINTAINED AND IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING.

AFTER THE COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY...VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UNSETTLED PATTERN. WITH A
FRONT REMAINING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT...STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO NAIL DOWN DRY PERIODS THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPANSIVE STRATOCU DECK LIFTING AND SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF DECAY
AS STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW MIXES IN DRIER AIR AND A RIDGE
PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. STILL...MVFR AND SPOTTY IFR CONDTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PULLS
AWAY. LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS...WHERE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT WITH SOME CLEARING GOING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUIDANCE SHOWING LIGHT MVFR FOG
DEVELOPMENT FOR MOST TERMINALS...AND THIS SEEMS PRUDENT GIVEN THAT
DEWPOINTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL OFF THIS EVENING.

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR ALL LOCATIONS MONDAY AS THE RIDGE
TAKES CONTROL WITH DRIER WEATHER.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER SYSTEM DIVING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT COULD
BRING ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL KEEP AT
LEAST A CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281756
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
156 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL GREET THE NEW WEEK AS A
PERSISTENT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW-LEVEL STRATOCU DECK REMAINS EXPANSIVE...BUT STRONG BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW HAS MIXED DRIER AIR IN AND IS WORKING TO CREATE BREAKS.
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE HAS LEAD TO CLEARING
AND WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE WESTERN EDGE OF OUR CLOUD DECK AS IT
MOVES IN THROUGH LATE EVENING. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN HELD IN
CHECK...BUT THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
JUMP UP A FEW DEGREES LOCALLY.

CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE MOISTURE QUICKLY
ERODING...RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY CEASE. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE
FAIRLY DRY WITH THE WEAK RIDGE AT LEAST TEMPORARILY IN CONTROL.
FLOW WILL BACK TO SOUTHERLY AS THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE PASSES BY
MIDDAY. A STRONG WARMUP IS EXPECTED...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD
AT OR JUST BELOW THE AVERAGE VALUES.

AS QUICKLY AS THE RIDGE MOVES IN...IT MOVES OUT. MONDAY MORNING...ANOTHER
LOW WILL DROP OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS DIVING INTO THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF LAKE MICHIGAN. ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY...THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS
STRENGTHEN AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW SLOWS DOWN. THIS TREND
KEEPS POPS OUT OF THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST UNTIL THE
WARM FRONT APPROACHES LATE MONDAY EVENING. LIMITED THUNDER
POTENTIAL WITH THE APPROACHING LOW AS CAPE VALUES THROUGH EASTERN
OHIO ARE MODEST AT BEST.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA AS A
WARM FRONT CROSSES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE...AND THE CONSENSUS IN LATEST
RUNS INDICATES THE TIMING OFF THE DRY SLOT ALLOWING FOR A BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MID TO LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A MODEST INCREASE
IN SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE ON THE
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...RAISING THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS. THIS WOULD MORE LIKELY BE ALONG A
LINE AS WINDS ALOFT WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN OHIO THROUGH SOUTHERN
INDIANA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS HINT AT A LINE OF STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT MID-AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUING AHEAD
ALONG THE OUTFLOW. MODEL BRN VALUES SHOW A DECENT BALANCE OF SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY...SO ITS POSSIBLE THE LINE MAY BE ABLE TO BE
MAINTAINED AND IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING.

AFTER THE COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY...VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UNSETTLED PATTERN. WITH A
FRONT REMAINING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT...STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO NAIL DOWN DRY PERIODS THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPANSIVE STRATOCU DECK LIFTING AND SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF DECAY
AS STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW MIXES IN DRIER AIR AND A RIDGE
PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. STILL...MVFR AND SPOTTY IFR CONDTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PULLS
AWAY. LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS...WHERE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT WITH SOME CLEARING GOING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUIDANCE SHOWING LIGHT MVFR FOG
DEVELOPMENT FOR MOST TERMINALS...AND THIS SEEMS PRUDENT GIVEN THAT
DEWPOINTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL OFF THIS EVENING.

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR ALL LOCATIONS MONDAY AS THE RIDGE
TAKES CONTROL WITH DRIER WEATHER.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER SYSTEM DIVING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT COULD
BRING ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL KEEP AT
LEAST A CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281756
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
156 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL GREET THE NEW WEEK AS A
PERSISTENT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW-LEVEL STRATOCU DECK REMAINS EXPANSIVE...BUT STRONG BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW HAS MIXED DRIER AIR IN AND IS WORKING TO CREATE BREAKS.
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE HAS LEAD TO CLEARING
AND WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE WESTERN EDGE OF OUR CLOUD DECK AS IT
MOVES IN THROUGH LATE EVENING. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN HELD IN
CHECK...BUT THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
JUMP UP A FEW DEGREES LOCALLY.

CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE MOISTURE QUICKLY
ERODING...RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY CEASE. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE
FAIRLY DRY WITH THE WEAK RIDGE AT LEAST TEMPORARILY IN CONTROL.
FLOW WILL BACK TO SOUTHERLY AS THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE PASSES BY
MIDDAY. A STRONG WARMUP IS EXPECTED...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD
AT OR JUST BELOW THE AVERAGE VALUES.

AS QUICKLY AS THE RIDGE MOVES IN...IT MOVES OUT. MONDAY MORNING...ANOTHER
LOW WILL DROP OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS DIVING INTO THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF LAKE MICHIGAN. ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY...THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS
STRENGTHEN AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW SLOWS DOWN. THIS TREND
KEEPS POPS OUT OF THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST UNTIL THE
WARM FRONT APPROACHES LATE MONDAY EVENING. LIMITED THUNDER
POTENTIAL WITH THE APPROACHING LOW AS CAPE VALUES THROUGH EASTERN
OHIO ARE MODEST AT BEST.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA AS A
WARM FRONT CROSSES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE...AND THE CONSENSUS IN LATEST
RUNS INDICATES THE TIMING OFF THE DRY SLOT ALLOWING FOR A BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MID TO LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A MODEST INCREASE
IN SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE ON THE
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...RAISING THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS. THIS WOULD MORE LIKELY BE ALONG A
LINE AS WINDS ALOFT WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN OHIO THROUGH SOUTHERN
INDIANA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS HINT AT A LINE OF STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT MID-AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUING AHEAD
ALONG THE OUTFLOW. MODEL BRN VALUES SHOW A DECENT BALANCE OF SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY...SO ITS POSSIBLE THE LINE MAY BE ABLE TO BE
MAINTAINED AND IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING.

AFTER THE COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY...VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UNSETTLED PATTERN. WITH A
FRONT REMAINING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT...STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO NAIL DOWN DRY PERIODS THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPANSIVE STRATOCU DECK LIFTING AND SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF DECAY
AS STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW MIXES IN DRIER AIR AND A RIDGE
PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. STILL...MVFR AND SPOTTY IFR CONDTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PULLS
AWAY. LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS...WHERE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT WITH SOME CLEARING GOING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUIDANCE SHOWING LIGHT MVFR FOG
DEVELOPMENT FOR MOST TERMINALS...AND THIS SEEMS PRUDENT GIVEN THAT
DEWPOINTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL OFF THIS EVENING.

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR ALL LOCATIONS MONDAY AS THE RIDGE
TAKES CONTROL WITH DRIER WEATHER.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER SYSTEM DIVING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT COULD
BRING ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL KEEP AT
LEAST A CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281756
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
156 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL GREET THE NEW WEEK AS A
PERSISTENT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW-LEVEL STRATOCU DECK REMAINS EXPANSIVE...BUT STRONG BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW HAS MIXED DRIER AIR IN AND IS WORKING TO CREATE BREAKS.
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE HAS LEAD TO CLEARING
AND WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE WESTERN EDGE OF OUR CLOUD DECK AS IT
MOVES IN THROUGH LATE EVENING. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN HELD IN
CHECK...BUT THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
JUMP UP A FEW DEGREES LOCALLY.

CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE MOISTURE QUICKLY
ERODING...RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY CEASE. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE
FAIRLY DRY WITH THE WEAK RIDGE AT LEAST TEMPORARILY IN CONTROL.
FLOW WILL BACK TO SOUTHERLY AS THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE PASSES BY
MIDDAY. A STRONG WARMUP IS EXPECTED...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD
AT OR JUST BELOW THE AVERAGE VALUES.

AS QUICKLY AS THE RIDGE MOVES IN...IT MOVES OUT. MONDAY MORNING...ANOTHER
LOW WILL DROP OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS DIVING INTO THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF LAKE MICHIGAN. ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY...THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS
STRENGTHEN AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW SLOWS DOWN. THIS TREND
KEEPS POPS OUT OF THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST UNTIL THE
WARM FRONT APPROACHES LATE MONDAY EVENING. LIMITED THUNDER
POTENTIAL WITH THE APPROACHING LOW AS CAPE VALUES THROUGH EASTERN
OHIO ARE MODEST AT BEST.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA AS A
WARM FRONT CROSSES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE...AND THE CONSENSUS IN LATEST
RUNS INDICATES THE TIMING OFF THE DRY SLOT ALLOWING FOR A BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MID TO LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A MODEST INCREASE
IN SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE ON THE
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...RAISING THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS. THIS WOULD MORE LIKELY BE ALONG A
LINE AS WINDS ALOFT WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN OHIO THROUGH SOUTHERN
INDIANA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS HINT AT A LINE OF STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT MID-AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUING AHEAD
ALONG THE OUTFLOW. MODEL BRN VALUES SHOW A DECENT BALANCE OF SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY...SO ITS POSSIBLE THE LINE MAY BE ABLE TO BE
MAINTAINED AND IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING.

AFTER THE COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY...VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UNSETTLED PATTERN. WITH A
FRONT REMAINING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT...STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO NAIL DOWN DRY PERIODS THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPANSIVE STRATOCU DECK LIFTING AND SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF DECAY
AS STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW MIXES IN DRIER AIR AND A RIDGE
PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. STILL...MVFR AND SPOTTY IFR CONDTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PULLS
AWAY. LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS...WHERE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT WITH SOME CLEARING GOING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUIDANCE SHOWING LIGHT MVFR FOG
DEVELOPMENT FOR MOST TERMINALS...AND THIS SEEMS PRUDENT GIVEN THAT
DEWPOINTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL OFF THIS EVENING.

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR ALL LOCATIONS MONDAY AS THE RIDGE
TAKES CONTROL WITH DRIER WEATHER.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER SYSTEM DIVING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT COULD
BRING ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL KEEP AT
LEAST A CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281701
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
101 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL GREET THE NEW WEEK AS A
PERSISTENT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE MIDDAY UPDATE. LOW-LEVEL
STRATUS DECK REMAINS EXPANSIVE...BUT STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND
THE PRESENCE OF DRYER AIR HAS WORKED TO MIX THE CLOUD DECK UP AND
EVEN WORKING IN SOME LIGHTER SPOTS. EXPECTING THIS TO EVENTUALLY
AID EROSION OF THE CLOUDS THROUGH THE EVENING.

TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN HELD IN CHECK...AS EXPECTED...BUT THE
RANDOM BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO JUMP UP A
FEW DEGREES LOCALLY.

CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...BUT DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY WORK TO ERODE
THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK TO THE POINT WHERE SOME
CLEARING WILL OCCUR BY SUNSET. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL THEN
QUICKLY PASS OVER THE AREA ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA AS A
WARM FRONT CROSSES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE...AND THE CONSENSUS IN LATEST
RUNS INDICATES THE TIMING OFF THE DRY SLOT ALLOWING FOR A BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MID TO LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A MODEST INCREASE
IN SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE ON THE
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...RAISING THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS. THIS WOULD MORE LIKELY BE ALONG A
LINE AS WINDS ALOFT WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN OHIO THROUGH SOUTHERN
INDIANA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS HINT AT A LINE OF STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT MID-AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUING AHEAD
ALONG THE OUTFLOW. MODEL BRN VALUES SHOW A DECENT BALANCE OF SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY...SO ITS POSSIBLE THE LINE MAY BE ABLE TO BE
MAINTAINED AND IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING.

AFTER THE COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY...VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UNSETTLED PATTERN. WITH A
FRONT REMAINING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT...STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO NAIL DOWN DRY PERIODS THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP IFR CEILINGS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN AS TO WHAT THE LIFR POTENTIAL IS AT FKL/DUJ. WITH 06Z
TAFS...DECIDED TO HOLD IN IFR CEILINGS SEVERAL MORE HOURS THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST AT SITES OTHER THAN MGW. WITH THIS SYSTEM
LOOKING MUCH MORE LIKE A WINTERTIME LOW THAN A SUMMERTIME
LOW...ALSO FIGURED THAT THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LOW CIGS REMAINING
MUCH LONGER THAN NORMAL. AS IS TYPICAL IN THIS SCENARIO...EXPECT
ZZV/MGW WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT EARLIEST...DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH SKIES NOT CLEARING OUT UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT AT
FKL/DUJ.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH A
MONDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL KEEP AT LEAST A
CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281701
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
101 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL GREET THE NEW WEEK AS A
PERSISTENT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE MIDDAY UPDATE. LOW-LEVEL
STRATUS DECK REMAINS EXPANSIVE...BUT STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND
THE PRESENCE OF DRYER AIR HAS WORKED TO MIX THE CLOUD DECK UP AND
EVEN WORKING IN SOME LIGHTER SPOTS. EXPECTING THIS TO EVENTUALLY
AID EROSION OF THE CLOUDS THROUGH THE EVENING.

TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN HELD IN CHECK...AS EXPECTED...BUT THE
RANDOM BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO JUMP UP A
FEW DEGREES LOCALLY.

CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...BUT DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY WORK TO ERODE
THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK TO THE POINT WHERE SOME
CLEARING WILL OCCUR BY SUNSET. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL THEN
QUICKLY PASS OVER THE AREA ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA AS A
WARM FRONT CROSSES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE...AND THE CONSENSUS IN LATEST
RUNS INDICATES THE TIMING OFF THE DRY SLOT ALLOWING FOR A BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MID TO LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A MODEST INCREASE
IN SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE ON THE
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...RAISING THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS. THIS WOULD MORE LIKELY BE ALONG A
LINE AS WINDS ALOFT WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN OHIO THROUGH SOUTHERN
INDIANA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS HINT AT A LINE OF STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT MID-AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUING AHEAD
ALONG THE OUTFLOW. MODEL BRN VALUES SHOW A DECENT BALANCE OF SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY...SO ITS POSSIBLE THE LINE MAY BE ABLE TO BE
MAINTAINED AND IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING.

AFTER THE COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY...VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UNSETTLED PATTERN. WITH A
FRONT REMAINING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT...STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO NAIL DOWN DRY PERIODS THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP IFR CEILINGS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN AS TO WHAT THE LIFR POTENTIAL IS AT FKL/DUJ. WITH 06Z
TAFS...DECIDED TO HOLD IN IFR CEILINGS SEVERAL MORE HOURS THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST AT SITES OTHER THAN MGW. WITH THIS SYSTEM
LOOKING MUCH MORE LIKE A WINTERTIME LOW THAN A SUMMERTIME
LOW...ALSO FIGURED THAT THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LOW CIGS REMAINING
MUCH LONGER THAN NORMAL. AS IS TYPICAL IN THIS SCENARIO...EXPECT
ZZV/MGW WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT EARLIEST...DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH SKIES NOT CLEARING OUT UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT AT
FKL/DUJ.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH A
MONDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL KEEP AT LEAST A
CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281243
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
843 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL GREET THE NEW WEEK AS A
PERSISTENT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID-MORNING UPDATE TO BOOST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
TODAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80 WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE
RESIDES. THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL BEGIN TO PULL AWAY
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS...TAKING THE UPPER-LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH IT. WITH COPIOUS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING...HAVE
INCLUDED A MENTION OF PATCHY DRIZZLE ALONG WITH THE SHOWER
WORDING.

LOOPING THE EARLY IMAGES FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS MORNING MAY
CAUSE A RANGE OF EMOTIONS. THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS BLANKETED
BY CLOUD COVER...BUT THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD EDGE SITS JUST OUTSIDE
OF THE FORECAST AREA ON A LINE FROM ABOUT COLUMBUS OHIO TO
CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA. THOSE LOOKING FOR A DAY OF SUNSHINE MAY
FEEL OPTIMISTIC THAT THAT CLOUD EDGE WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE
NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE RETREATING LOW. THE BAD NEWS...HOWEVER...
IS THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED ABUNDANCE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
RE-ENFORCING NORTHWEST FLOW MEANS THAT THE CLOUDS WILL ONLY SLOWLY
ERODE. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE AND
ENCROACHING THE RECORD LOW HIGH REALM. SEVERAL RECORD LOW HIGHS MAY
BE BROKEN. FOR PITTSBURGH...THE CURRENT RECORD IS 64 DEGREES SET
IN 1968. SO FAR TODAY THE HIGH TEMP -63- WAS AT MIDNIGHT (STANDARD
TIME)...WHICH IS ALSO THE FORECAST HIGH FOR TODAY.

CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...BUT DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY WORK TO ERODE
THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK TO THE POINT WHERE SOME
CLEARING WILL OCCUR BY SUNSET. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL THEN
QUICKLY PASS OVER THE AREA ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA AS A
WARM FRONT CROSSES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE...AND THE CONSENSUS IN LATEST
RUNS INDICATES THE TIMING OFF THE DRY SLOT ALLOWING FOR A BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MID TO LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A MODEST INCREASE
IN SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE ON THE
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...RAISING THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS. THIS WOULD MORE LIKELY BE ALONG A
LINE AS WINDS ALOFT WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN OHIO THROUGH SOUTHERN
INDIANA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS HINT AT A LINE OF STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT MID-AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUING AHEAD
ALONG THE OUTFLOW. MODEL BRN VALUES SHOW A DECENT BALANCE OF SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY...SO ITS POSSIBLE THE LINE MAY BE ABLE TO BE
MAINTAINED AND IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING.

AFTER THE COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY...VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UNSETTLED PATTERN. WITH A
FRONT REMAINING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT...STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO NAIL DOWN DRY PERIODS THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP IFR CEILINGS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN AS TO WHAT THE LIFR POTENTIAL IS AT FKL/DUJ. WITH 06Z
TAFS...DECIDED TO HOLD IN IFR CEILINGS SEVERAL MORE HOURS THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST AT SITES OTHER THAN MGW. WITH THIS SYSTEM
LOOKING MUCH MORE LIKE A WINTERTIME LOW THAN A SUMMERTIME
LOW...ALSO FIGURED THAT THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LOW CIGS REMAINING
MUCH LONGER THAN NORMAL. AS IS TYPICAL IN THIS SCENARIO...EXPECT
ZZV/MGW WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT EARLIEST...DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH SKIES NOT CLEARING OUT UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT AT
FKL/DUJ.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH A
MONDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL KEEP AT LEAST A
CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281243
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
843 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL GREET THE NEW WEEK AS A
PERSISTENT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID-MORNING UPDATE TO BOOST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
TODAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80 WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE
RESIDES. THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL BEGIN TO PULL AWAY
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS...TAKING THE UPPER-LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH IT. WITH COPIOUS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING...HAVE
INCLUDED A MENTION OF PATCHY DRIZZLE ALONG WITH THE SHOWER
WORDING.

LOOPING THE EARLY IMAGES FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS MORNING MAY
CAUSE A RANGE OF EMOTIONS. THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS BLANKETED
BY CLOUD COVER...BUT THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD EDGE SITS JUST OUTSIDE
OF THE FORECAST AREA ON A LINE FROM ABOUT COLUMBUS OHIO TO
CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA. THOSE LOOKING FOR A DAY OF SUNSHINE MAY
FEEL OPTIMISTIC THAT THAT CLOUD EDGE WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE
NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE RETREATING LOW. THE BAD NEWS...HOWEVER...
IS THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED ABUNDANCE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
RE-ENFORCING NORTHWEST FLOW MEANS THAT THE CLOUDS WILL ONLY SLOWLY
ERODE. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE AND
ENCROACHING THE RECORD LOW HIGH REALM. SEVERAL RECORD LOW HIGHS MAY
BE BROKEN. FOR PITTSBURGH...THE CURRENT RECORD IS 64 DEGREES SET
IN 1968. SO FAR TODAY THE HIGH TEMP -63- WAS AT MIDNIGHT (STANDARD
TIME)...WHICH IS ALSO THE FORECAST HIGH FOR TODAY.

CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...BUT DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY WORK TO ERODE
THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK TO THE POINT WHERE SOME
CLEARING WILL OCCUR BY SUNSET. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL THEN
QUICKLY PASS OVER THE AREA ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA AS A
WARM FRONT CROSSES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE...AND THE CONSENSUS IN LATEST
RUNS INDICATES THE TIMING OFF THE DRY SLOT ALLOWING FOR A BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MID TO LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A MODEST INCREASE
IN SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE ON THE
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...RAISING THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS. THIS WOULD MORE LIKELY BE ALONG A
LINE AS WINDS ALOFT WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN OHIO THROUGH SOUTHERN
INDIANA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS HINT AT A LINE OF STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT MID-AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUING AHEAD
ALONG THE OUTFLOW. MODEL BRN VALUES SHOW A DECENT BALANCE OF SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY...SO ITS POSSIBLE THE LINE MAY BE ABLE TO BE
MAINTAINED AND IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING.

AFTER THE COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY...VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UNSETTLED PATTERN. WITH A
FRONT REMAINING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT...STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO NAIL DOWN DRY PERIODS THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP IFR CEILINGS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN AS TO WHAT THE LIFR POTENTIAL IS AT FKL/DUJ. WITH 06Z
TAFS...DECIDED TO HOLD IN IFR CEILINGS SEVERAL MORE HOURS THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST AT SITES OTHER THAN MGW. WITH THIS SYSTEM
LOOKING MUCH MORE LIKE A WINTERTIME LOW THAN A SUMMERTIME
LOW...ALSO FIGURED THAT THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LOW CIGS REMAINING
MUCH LONGER THAN NORMAL. AS IS TYPICAL IN THIS SCENARIO...EXPECT
ZZV/MGW WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT EARLIEST...DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH SKIES NOT CLEARING OUT UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT AT
FKL/DUJ.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH A
MONDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL KEEP AT LEAST A
CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281243
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
843 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL GREET THE NEW WEEK AS A
PERSISTENT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID-MORNING UPDATE TO BOOST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
TODAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80 WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE
RESIDES. THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL BEGIN TO PULL AWAY
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS...TAKING THE UPPER-LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH IT. WITH COPIOUS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING...HAVE
INCLUDED A MENTION OF PATCHY DRIZZLE ALONG WITH THE SHOWER
WORDING.

LOOPING THE EARLY IMAGES FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS MORNING MAY
CAUSE A RANGE OF EMOTIONS. THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS BLANKETED
BY CLOUD COVER...BUT THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD EDGE SITS JUST OUTSIDE
OF THE FORECAST AREA ON A LINE FROM ABOUT COLUMBUS OHIO TO
CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA. THOSE LOOKING FOR A DAY OF SUNSHINE MAY
FEEL OPTIMISTIC THAT THAT CLOUD EDGE WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE
NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE RETREATING LOW. THE BAD NEWS...HOWEVER...
IS THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED ABUNDANCE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
RE-ENFORCING NORTHWEST FLOW MEANS THAT THE CLOUDS WILL ONLY SLOWLY
ERODE. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE AND
ENCROACHING THE RECORD LOW HIGH REALM. SEVERAL RECORD LOW HIGHS MAY
BE BROKEN. FOR PITTSBURGH...THE CURRENT RECORD IS 64 DEGREES SET
IN 1968. SO FAR TODAY THE HIGH TEMP -63- WAS AT MIDNIGHT (STANDARD
TIME)...WHICH IS ALSO THE FORECAST HIGH FOR TODAY.

CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...BUT DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY WORK TO ERODE
THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK TO THE POINT WHERE SOME
CLEARING WILL OCCUR BY SUNSET. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL THEN
QUICKLY PASS OVER THE AREA ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA AS A
WARM FRONT CROSSES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE...AND THE CONSENSUS IN LATEST
RUNS INDICATES THE TIMING OFF THE DRY SLOT ALLOWING FOR A BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MID TO LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A MODEST INCREASE
IN SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE ON THE
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...RAISING THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS. THIS WOULD MORE LIKELY BE ALONG A
LINE AS WINDS ALOFT WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN OHIO THROUGH SOUTHERN
INDIANA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS HINT AT A LINE OF STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT MID-AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUING AHEAD
ALONG THE OUTFLOW. MODEL BRN VALUES SHOW A DECENT BALANCE OF SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY...SO ITS POSSIBLE THE LINE MAY BE ABLE TO BE
MAINTAINED AND IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING.

AFTER THE COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY...VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UNSETTLED PATTERN. WITH A
FRONT REMAINING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT...STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO NAIL DOWN DRY PERIODS THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP IFR CEILINGS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN AS TO WHAT THE LIFR POTENTIAL IS AT FKL/DUJ. WITH 06Z
TAFS...DECIDED TO HOLD IN IFR CEILINGS SEVERAL MORE HOURS THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST AT SITES OTHER THAN MGW. WITH THIS SYSTEM
LOOKING MUCH MORE LIKE A WINTERTIME LOW THAN A SUMMERTIME
LOW...ALSO FIGURED THAT THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LOW CIGS REMAINING
MUCH LONGER THAN NORMAL. AS IS TYPICAL IN THIS SCENARIO...EXPECT
ZZV/MGW WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT EARLIEST...DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH SKIES NOT CLEARING OUT UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT AT
FKL/DUJ.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH A
MONDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL KEEP AT LEAST A
CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281243
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
843 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL GREET THE NEW WEEK AS A
PERSISTENT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID-MORNING UPDATE TO BOOST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
TODAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80 WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE
RESIDES. THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL BEGIN TO PULL AWAY
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS...TAKING THE UPPER-LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH IT. WITH COPIOUS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING...HAVE
INCLUDED A MENTION OF PATCHY DRIZZLE ALONG WITH THE SHOWER
WORDING.

LOOPING THE EARLY IMAGES FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS MORNING MAY
CAUSE A RANGE OF EMOTIONS. THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS BLANKETED
BY CLOUD COVER...BUT THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD EDGE SITS JUST OUTSIDE
OF THE FORECAST AREA ON A LINE FROM ABOUT COLUMBUS OHIO TO
CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA. THOSE LOOKING FOR A DAY OF SUNSHINE MAY
FEEL OPTIMISTIC THAT THAT CLOUD EDGE WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE
NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE RETREATING LOW. THE BAD NEWS...HOWEVER...
IS THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED ABUNDANCE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
RE-ENFORCING NORTHWEST FLOW MEANS THAT THE CLOUDS WILL ONLY SLOWLY
ERODE. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE AND
ENCROACHING THE RECORD LOW HIGH REALM. SEVERAL RECORD LOW HIGHS MAY
BE BROKEN. FOR PITTSBURGH...THE CURRENT RECORD IS 64 DEGREES SET
IN 1968. SO FAR TODAY THE HIGH TEMP -63- WAS AT MIDNIGHT (STANDARD
TIME)...WHICH IS ALSO THE FORECAST HIGH FOR TODAY.

CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...BUT DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY WORK TO ERODE
THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK TO THE POINT WHERE SOME
CLEARING WILL OCCUR BY SUNSET. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL THEN
QUICKLY PASS OVER THE AREA ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA AS A
WARM FRONT CROSSES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE...AND THE CONSENSUS IN LATEST
RUNS INDICATES THE TIMING OFF THE DRY SLOT ALLOWING FOR A BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MID TO LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A MODEST INCREASE
IN SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE ON THE
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...RAISING THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS. THIS WOULD MORE LIKELY BE ALONG A
LINE AS WINDS ALOFT WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN OHIO THROUGH SOUTHERN
INDIANA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS HINT AT A LINE OF STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT MID-AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUING AHEAD
ALONG THE OUTFLOW. MODEL BRN VALUES SHOW A DECENT BALANCE OF SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY...SO ITS POSSIBLE THE LINE MAY BE ABLE TO BE
MAINTAINED AND IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING.

AFTER THE COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY...VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UNSETTLED PATTERN. WITH A
FRONT REMAINING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT...STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO NAIL DOWN DRY PERIODS THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP IFR CEILINGS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN AS TO WHAT THE LIFR POTENTIAL IS AT FKL/DUJ. WITH 06Z
TAFS...DECIDED TO HOLD IN IFR CEILINGS SEVERAL MORE HOURS THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST AT SITES OTHER THAN MGW. WITH THIS SYSTEM
LOOKING MUCH MORE LIKE A WINTERTIME LOW THAN A SUMMERTIME
LOW...ALSO FIGURED THAT THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LOW CIGS REMAINING
MUCH LONGER THAN NORMAL. AS IS TYPICAL IN THIS SCENARIO...EXPECT
ZZV/MGW WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT EARLIEST...DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH SKIES NOT CLEARING OUT UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT AT
FKL/DUJ.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH A
MONDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL KEEP AT LEAST A
CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280947
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
547 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL GREET THE NEW WEEK AS A
PERSISTENT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO UPDATES NEEDED EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS MATCH UP WELL WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST. PREV DISCUSSION
BELOW...

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY AS THE
OCCLUDED LOW THAT IS NOW CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST OHIO PASSES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION RATES AND QPF WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG FORCING...SO NO ADDITIONAL
FLOODING IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL
HAVE A VERY SMALL DIURNAL RANGE...WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST
CALLING FOR A 5 DEGREE RANGE ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A
FAIRLY EXPANSIVE AREA OF SOLID LOW CLOUD COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW...WHICH COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT KEEPING LOWER
LEVELS MIXED HAS PREVENTED TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH. THIS
CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RECOVERING MUCH
DURING THE DAY. WITH THAT AND HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT
RANGING BETWEEN 2 AND 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE QUITE COOL...BETWEEN 15 AND 20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. SEVERAL RECORD LOW MAX`S MAY BE BROKEN. FOR
PITTSBURGH...THE CURRENT RECORD IS 64 DEGREES SET IN 1968. SO FAR
TODAY THE HIGH TEMP -63- WAS AT MIDNIGHT (STANDARD TIME)...WHICH
IS ALSO THE FORECAST HIGH FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PRECIPITATION WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL THEN QUICKLY PASS OVER THE AREA ALLOWING
FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF
MONDAY...BEFORE SHOWERS SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER
THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE
IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE...AND THE CONSENSUS
IN LATEST RUNS INDICATES THE TIMING OFF THE DRY SLOT ALLOWING FOR
A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MID TO LATE TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A
MODEST INCREASE IN SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...INCREASING CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...RAISING THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS. THIS WOULD MORE
LIKELY BE ALONG A LINE AS WINDS ALOFT WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN OHIO
THROUGH SOUTHERN INDIANA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS HINT AT A LINE
OF STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT MID-AFTERNOON AND THEN
CONTINUING AHEAD ALONG THE OUTFLOW. MODEL BRN VALUES SHOW A DECENT
BALANCE OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...SO ITS POSSIBLE THE LINE MAY BE
ABLE TO BE MAINTAINED AND IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING.

AFTER THE COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY...VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UNSETTLED PATTERN. WITH A
FRONT REMAINING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT...STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO NAIL DOWN DRY PERIODS THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP IFR CEILINGS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN AS TO WHAT THE LIFR POTENTIAL IS AT FKL/DUJ. WITH 06Z
TAFS...DECIDED TO HOLD IN IFR CEILINGS SEVERAL MORE HOURS THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST AT SITES OTHER THAN MGW. WITH THIS SYSTEM
LOOKING MUCH MORE LIKE A WINTERTIME LOW THAN A SUMMERTIME
LOW...ALSO FIGURED THAT THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LOW CIGS REMAINING
MUCH LONGER THAN NORMAL. AS IS TYPICAL IN THIS SCENARIO...EXPECT
ZZV/MGW WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT EARLIEST...DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH SKIES NOT CLEARING OUT UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT AT
FKL/DUJ.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH A
MONDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL KEEP AT LEAST A
CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.


&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280947
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
547 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL GREET THE NEW WEEK AS A
PERSISTENT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO UPDATES NEEDED EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS MATCH UP WELL WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST. PREV DISCUSSION
BELOW...

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY AS THE
OCCLUDED LOW THAT IS NOW CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST OHIO PASSES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION RATES AND QPF WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG FORCING...SO NO ADDITIONAL
FLOODING IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL
HAVE A VERY SMALL DIURNAL RANGE...WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST
CALLING FOR A 5 DEGREE RANGE ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A
FAIRLY EXPANSIVE AREA OF SOLID LOW CLOUD COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW...WHICH COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT KEEPING LOWER
LEVELS MIXED HAS PREVENTED TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH. THIS
CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RECOVERING MUCH
DURING THE DAY. WITH THAT AND HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT
RANGING BETWEEN 2 AND 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE QUITE COOL...BETWEEN 15 AND 20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. SEVERAL RECORD LOW MAX`S MAY BE BROKEN. FOR
PITTSBURGH...THE CURRENT RECORD IS 64 DEGREES SET IN 1968. SO FAR
TODAY THE HIGH TEMP -63- WAS AT MIDNIGHT (STANDARD TIME)...WHICH
IS ALSO THE FORECAST HIGH FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PRECIPITATION WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL THEN QUICKLY PASS OVER THE AREA ALLOWING
FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF
MONDAY...BEFORE SHOWERS SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER
THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE
IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE...AND THE CONSENSUS
IN LATEST RUNS INDICATES THE TIMING OFF THE DRY SLOT ALLOWING FOR
A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MID TO LATE TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A
MODEST INCREASE IN SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...INCREASING CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...RAISING THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS. THIS WOULD MORE
LIKELY BE ALONG A LINE AS WINDS ALOFT WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN OHIO
THROUGH SOUTHERN INDIANA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS HINT AT A LINE
OF STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT MID-AFTERNOON AND THEN
CONTINUING AHEAD ALONG THE OUTFLOW. MODEL BRN VALUES SHOW A DECENT
BALANCE OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...SO ITS POSSIBLE THE LINE MAY BE
ABLE TO BE MAINTAINED AND IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING.

AFTER THE COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY...VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UNSETTLED PATTERN. WITH A
FRONT REMAINING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT...STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO NAIL DOWN DRY PERIODS THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP IFR CEILINGS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN AS TO WHAT THE LIFR POTENTIAL IS AT FKL/DUJ. WITH 06Z
TAFS...DECIDED TO HOLD IN IFR CEILINGS SEVERAL MORE HOURS THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST AT SITES OTHER THAN MGW. WITH THIS SYSTEM
LOOKING MUCH MORE LIKE A WINTERTIME LOW THAN A SUMMERTIME
LOW...ALSO FIGURED THAT THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LOW CIGS REMAINING
MUCH LONGER THAN NORMAL. AS IS TYPICAL IN THIS SCENARIO...EXPECT
ZZV/MGW WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT EARLIEST...DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH SKIES NOT CLEARING OUT UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT AT
FKL/DUJ.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH A
MONDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL KEEP AT LEAST A
CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.


&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280828
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
428 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL GREET THE NEW WEEK AS A
PERSISTENT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY AS THE
OCCLUDED LOW THAT IS NOW CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST OHIO PASSES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION RATES AND QPF WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG FORCING...SO NO ADDITIONAL
FLOODING IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL
HAVE A VERY SMALL DIURNAL RANGE...WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST
CALLING FOR A 5 DEGREE RANGE ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A
FAIRLY EXPANSIVE AREA OF SOLID LOW CLOUD COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW...WHICH COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT KEEPING LOWER
LEVELS MIXED HAS PREVENTED TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH. THIS
CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RECOVERING MUCH
DURING THE DAY. WITH THAT AND HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT
RANGING BETWEEN 2 AND 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE QUITE COOL...BETWEEN 15 AND 20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. SEVERAL RECORD LOW MAX`S MAY BE BROKEN. FOR
PITTSBURGH...THE CURRENT RECORD IS 64 DEGREES SET IN 1968. SO FAR
TODAY THE HIGH TEMP -63- WAS AT MIDNIGHT (STANDARD TIME)...WHICH
IS ALSO THE FORECAST HIGH FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PRECIPITATION WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL THEN QUICKLY PASS OVER THE AREA ALLOWING
FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF
MONDAY...BEFORE SHOWERS SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER
THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE
IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE...AND THE CONSENSUS
IN LATEST RUNS INDICATES THE TIMING OFF THE DRY SLOT ALLOWING FOR
A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MID TO LATE TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A
MODEST INCREASE IN SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...INCREASING CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...RAISING THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS. THIS WOULD MORE
LIKELY BE ALONG A LINE AS WINDS ALOFT WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN OHIO
THROUGH SOUTHERN INDIANA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS HINT AT A LINE
OF STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT MID-AFTERNOON AND THEN
CONTINUING AHEAD ALONG THE OUTFLOW. MODEL BRN VALUES SHOW A DECENT
BALANCE OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...SO ITS POSSIBLE THE LINE MAY BE
ABLE TO BE MAINTAINED AND IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING.

AFTER THE COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY...VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UNSETTLED PATTERN. WITH A
FRONT REMAINING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT...STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO NAIL DOWN DRY PERIODS THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP IFR CEILINGS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN AS TO WHAT THE LIFR POTENTIAL IS AT FKL/DUJ. WITH 06Z
TAFS...DECIDED TO HOLD IN IFR CEILINGS SEVERAL MORE HOURS THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST AT SITES OTHER THAN MGW. WITH THIS SYSTEM
LOOKING MUCH MORE LIKE A WINTERTIME LOW THAN A SUMMERTIME
LOW...ALSO FIGURED THAT THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LOW CIGS REMAINING
MUCH LONGER THAN NORMAL. AS IS TYPICAL IN THIS SCENARIO...EXPECT
ZZV/MGW WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT EARLIEST...DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH SKIES NOT CLEARING OUT UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT AT
FKL/DUJ.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH A
MONDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL KEEP AT LEAST A
CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280828
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
428 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL GREET THE NEW WEEK AS A
PERSISTENT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY AS THE
OCCLUDED LOW THAT IS NOW CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST OHIO PASSES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION RATES AND QPF WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG FORCING...SO NO ADDITIONAL
FLOODING IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL
HAVE A VERY SMALL DIURNAL RANGE...WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST
CALLING FOR A 5 DEGREE RANGE ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A
FAIRLY EXPANSIVE AREA OF SOLID LOW CLOUD COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW...WHICH COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT KEEPING LOWER
LEVELS MIXED HAS PREVENTED TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH. THIS
CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RECOVERING MUCH
DURING THE DAY. WITH THAT AND HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT
RANGING BETWEEN 2 AND 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE QUITE COOL...BETWEEN 15 AND 20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. SEVERAL RECORD LOW MAX`S MAY BE BROKEN. FOR
PITTSBURGH...THE CURRENT RECORD IS 64 DEGREES SET IN 1968. SO FAR
TODAY THE HIGH TEMP -63- WAS AT MIDNIGHT (STANDARD TIME)...WHICH
IS ALSO THE FORECAST HIGH FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PRECIPITATION WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL THEN QUICKLY PASS OVER THE AREA ALLOWING
FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF
MONDAY...BEFORE SHOWERS SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER
THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE
IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE...AND THE CONSENSUS
IN LATEST RUNS INDICATES THE TIMING OFF THE DRY SLOT ALLOWING FOR
A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MID TO LATE TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A
MODEST INCREASE IN SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...INCREASING CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...RAISING THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS. THIS WOULD MORE
LIKELY BE ALONG A LINE AS WINDS ALOFT WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN OHIO
THROUGH SOUTHERN INDIANA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS HINT AT A LINE
OF STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT MID-AFTERNOON AND THEN
CONTINUING AHEAD ALONG THE OUTFLOW. MODEL BRN VALUES SHOW A DECENT
BALANCE OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...SO ITS POSSIBLE THE LINE MAY BE
ABLE TO BE MAINTAINED AND IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING.

AFTER THE COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY...VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UNSETTLED PATTERN. WITH A
FRONT REMAINING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT...STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO NAIL DOWN DRY PERIODS THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP IFR CEILINGS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN AS TO WHAT THE LIFR POTENTIAL IS AT FKL/DUJ. WITH 06Z
TAFS...DECIDED TO HOLD IN IFR CEILINGS SEVERAL MORE HOURS THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST AT SITES OTHER THAN MGW. WITH THIS SYSTEM
LOOKING MUCH MORE LIKE A WINTERTIME LOW THAN A SUMMERTIME
LOW...ALSO FIGURED THAT THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LOW CIGS REMAINING
MUCH LONGER THAN NORMAL. AS IS TYPICAL IN THIS SCENARIO...EXPECT
ZZV/MGW WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT EARLIEST...DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH SKIES NOT CLEARING OUT UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT AT
FKL/DUJ.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH A
MONDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL KEEP AT LEAST A
CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280520
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
120 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL GREET THE NEW WEEK AS A
PERSISTENT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY AS THE
OCCLUDED LOW THAT IS NOW CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST OHIO PASSES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION RATES AND QPF WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG FORCING...SO HAVE DROPPED THE
REMAINING PORTIONS OF THE FLOOD WATCH AS NO ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL HAVE A VERY
SMALL DIURNAL RANGE...WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLING FOR A 5
DEGREE RANGE ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A FAIRLY EXPANSIVE AREA OF
SOLID LOW CLOUD COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW...WHICH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH OVERNIGHT. ON THE FLIPSIDE IT WILL
ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RECOVERING MUCH DURING THE DAY. WITH
THAT AND HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT RANGING BETWEEN 2 AND 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
BE QUITE COOL...BETWEEN 15 AND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SEVERAL
RECORD LOW MAX`S MAY BE BROKEN. FOR PITTSBURGH...THE CURRENT
RECORD IS 64 DEGREES SET IN 1968. SO FAR TODAY...AT MIDNIGHT
(STANDARD TIME) THE TEMPERATURE WAS 63...WHICH IS ALSO THE
FORECAST HIGH FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRUDGE OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH DIURNAL STABILIZATION WILL ALLOW
REMAINING SHRA TO END. TRANSIENT AND SMALL MIDLEVEL AND SURFACE
RIDGING WILL KEEP THE CWA MOSTLY DRY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING.

YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A SURFACE LOW PASSING NEAR DETROIT BY 12Z
TUESDAY. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE A STRONG AND FAST OUTLIER AS
COMPARED TO THE GFS AND ECMWF. WITH THE LESS DYNAMIC SYSTEM AND
LOWER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY (PWATS BELOW 1.5 INCHES)...THE SYSTEM
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO MANAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SIMILAR TO TODAY.
SLOWED POPS A BIT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY
VALUES FOR MONDAY NIGHT. THINK QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
BELOW 0.5 INCH IN GENERAL. TIMING OF SYSTEM IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...DESPITE THE STRONG FLOW PATTERN.

THIS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY BY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT EXPECT THREAT OF
SHRA AND A FEW TSRA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN.

AFTER THE COOL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY...VALUES REBOUND TOWARDS
SEASONABLE LEVELS MONDAY AFTERNOON. MORE ABUNDANT CLOUDS TUESDAY
WILL COOL VALUES A FEW DEGREES FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS INCREASED RIDGING IN THE WEST WITH
DOWNSTREAM DEEPENING TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
LIKELY KEEP THINGS FAIRLY ACTIVE AND WET OVER THE CWA...WITH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY SEES THE BEST SHOT AT WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS...INCLUDING IFR CEILINGS EARLY ON SUNDAY...ARE
LIKELY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS SHOWERS PERSIST UNDER A
COLD UPPER LOW.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH A
MONDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280520
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
120 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL GREET THE NEW WEEK AS A
PERSISTENT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY AS THE
OCCLUDED LOW THAT IS NOW CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST OHIO PASSES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION RATES AND QPF WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG FORCING...SO HAVE DROPPED THE
REMAINING PORTIONS OF THE FLOOD WATCH AS NO ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL HAVE A VERY
SMALL DIURNAL RANGE...WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLING FOR A 5
DEGREE RANGE ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A FAIRLY EXPANSIVE AREA OF
SOLID LOW CLOUD COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW...WHICH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH OVERNIGHT. ON THE FLIPSIDE IT WILL
ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RECOVERING MUCH DURING THE DAY. WITH
THAT AND HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT RANGING BETWEEN 2 AND 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
BE QUITE COOL...BETWEEN 15 AND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SEVERAL
RECORD LOW MAX`S MAY BE BROKEN. FOR PITTSBURGH...THE CURRENT
RECORD IS 64 DEGREES SET IN 1968. SO FAR TODAY...AT MIDNIGHT
(STANDARD TIME) THE TEMPERATURE WAS 63...WHICH IS ALSO THE
FORECAST HIGH FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRUDGE OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH DIURNAL STABILIZATION WILL ALLOW
REMAINING SHRA TO END. TRANSIENT AND SMALL MIDLEVEL AND SURFACE
RIDGING WILL KEEP THE CWA MOSTLY DRY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING.

YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A SURFACE LOW PASSING NEAR DETROIT BY 12Z
TUESDAY. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE A STRONG AND FAST OUTLIER AS
COMPARED TO THE GFS AND ECMWF. WITH THE LESS DYNAMIC SYSTEM AND
LOWER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY (PWATS BELOW 1.5 INCHES)...THE SYSTEM
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO MANAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SIMILAR TO TODAY.
SLOWED POPS A BIT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY
VALUES FOR MONDAY NIGHT. THINK QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
BELOW 0.5 INCH IN GENERAL. TIMING OF SYSTEM IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...DESPITE THE STRONG FLOW PATTERN.

THIS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY BY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT EXPECT THREAT OF
SHRA AND A FEW TSRA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN.

AFTER THE COOL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY...VALUES REBOUND TOWARDS
SEASONABLE LEVELS MONDAY AFTERNOON. MORE ABUNDANT CLOUDS TUESDAY
WILL COOL VALUES A FEW DEGREES FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS INCREASED RIDGING IN THE WEST WITH
DOWNSTREAM DEEPENING TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
LIKELY KEEP THINGS FAIRLY ACTIVE AND WET OVER THE CWA...WITH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY SEES THE BEST SHOT AT WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS...INCLUDING IFR CEILINGS EARLY ON SUNDAY...ARE
LIKELY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS SHOWERS PERSIST UNDER A
COLD UPPER LOW.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH A
MONDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280520
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
120 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL GREET THE NEW WEEK AS A
PERSISTENT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY AS THE
OCCLUDED LOW THAT IS NOW CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST OHIO PASSES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION RATES AND QPF WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG FORCING...SO HAVE DROPPED THE
REMAINING PORTIONS OF THE FLOOD WATCH AS NO ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL HAVE A VERY
SMALL DIURNAL RANGE...WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLING FOR A 5
DEGREE RANGE ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A FAIRLY EXPANSIVE AREA OF
SOLID LOW CLOUD COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW...WHICH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH OVERNIGHT. ON THE FLIPSIDE IT WILL
ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RECOVERING MUCH DURING THE DAY. WITH
THAT AND HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT RANGING BETWEEN 2 AND 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
BE QUITE COOL...BETWEEN 15 AND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SEVERAL
RECORD LOW MAX`S MAY BE BROKEN. FOR PITTSBURGH...THE CURRENT
RECORD IS 64 DEGREES SET IN 1968. SO FAR TODAY...AT MIDNIGHT
(STANDARD TIME) THE TEMPERATURE WAS 63...WHICH IS ALSO THE
FORECAST HIGH FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRUDGE OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH DIURNAL STABILIZATION WILL ALLOW
REMAINING SHRA TO END. TRANSIENT AND SMALL MIDLEVEL AND SURFACE
RIDGING WILL KEEP THE CWA MOSTLY DRY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING.

YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A SURFACE LOW PASSING NEAR DETROIT BY 12Z
TUESDAY. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE A STRONG AND FAST OUTLIER AS
COMPARED TO THE GFS AND ECMWF. WITH THE LESS DYNAMIC SYSTEM AND
LOWER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY (PWATS BELOW 1.5 INCHES)...THE SYSTEM
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO MANAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SIMILAR TO TODAY.
SLOWED POPS A BIT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY
VALUES FOR MONDAY NIGHT. THINK QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
BELOW 0.5 INCH IN GENERAL. TIMING OF SYSTEM IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...DESPITE THE STRONG FLOW PATTERN.

THIS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY BY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT EXPECT THREAT OF
SHRA AND A FEW TSRA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN.

AFTER THE COOL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY...VALUES REBOUND TOWARDS
SEASONABLE LEVELS MONDAY AFTERNOON. MORE ABUNDANT CLOUDS TUESDAY
WILL COOL VALUES A FEW DEGREES FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS INCREASED RIDGING IN THE WEST WITH
DOWNSTREAM DEEPENING TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
LIKELY KEEP THINGS FAIRLY ACTIVE AND WET OVER THE CWA...WITH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY SEES THE BEST SHOT AT WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS...INCLUDING IFR CEILINGS EARLY ON SUNDAY...ARE
LIKELY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS SHOWERS PERSIST UNDER A
COLD UPPER LOW.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH A
MONDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280520
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
120 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL GREET THE NEW WEEK AS A
PERSISTENT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY AS THE
OCCLUDED LOW THAT IS NOW CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST OHIO PASSES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION RATES AND QPF WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG FORCING...SO HAVE DROPPED THE
REMAINING PORTIONS OF THE FLOOD WATCH AS NO ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL HAVE A VERY
SMALL DIURNAL RANGE...WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLING FOR A 5
DEGREE RANGE ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A FAIRLY EXPANSIVE AREA OF
SOLID LOW CLOUD COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW...WHICH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH OVERNIGHT. ON THE FLIPSIDE IT WILL
ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RECOVERING MUCH DURING THE DAY. WITH
THAT AND HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT RANGING BETWEEN 2 AND 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
BE QUITE COOL...BETWEEN 15 AND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SEVERAL
RECORD LOW MAX`S MAY BE BROKEN. FOR PITTSBURGH...THE CURRENT
RECORD IS 64 DEGREES SET IN 1968. SO FAR TODAY...AT MIDNIGHT
(STANDARD TIME) THE TEMPERATURE WAS 63...WHICH IS ALSO THE
FORECAST HIGH FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRUDGE OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH DIURNAL STABILIZATION WILL ALLOW
REMAINING SHRA TO END. TRANSIENT AND SMALL MIDLEVEL AND SURFACE
RIDGING WILL KEEP THE CWA MOSTLY DRY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING.

YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A SURFACE LOW PASSING NEAR DETROIT BY 12Z
TUESDAY. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE A STRONG AND FAST OUTLIER AS
COMPARED TO THE GFS AND ECMWF. WITH THE LESS DYNAMIC SYSTEM AND
LOWER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY (PWATS BELOW 1.5 INCHES)...THE SYSTEM
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO MANAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SIMILAR TO TODAY.
SLOWED POPS A BIT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY
VALUES FOR MONDAY NIGHT. THINK QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
BELOW 0.5 INCH IN GENERAL. TIMING OF SYSTEM IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...DESPITE THE STRONG FLOW PATTERN.

THIS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY BY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT EXPECT THREAT OF
SHRA AND A FEW TSRA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN.

AFTER THE COOL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY...VALUES REBOUND TOWARDS
SEASONABLE LEVELS MONDAY AFTERNOON. MORE ABUNDANT CLOUDS TUESDAY
WILL COOL VALUES A FEW DEGREES FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS INCREASED RIDGING IN THE WEST WITH
DOWNSTREAM DEEPENING TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
LIKELY KEEP THINGS FAIRLY ACTIVE AND WET OVER THE CWA...WITH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY SEES THE BEST SHOT AT WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS...INCLUDING IFR CEILINGS EARLY ON SUNDAY...ARE
LIKELY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS SHOWERS PERSIST UNDER A
COLD UPPER LOW.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH A
MONDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





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