Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250710
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
310 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ONLY A STRAY
SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE HEADING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM PITTSBURGH NORTH.
OTHERWISE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S THIS
AFTERNOON. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WORKS IN TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND CLEARING SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE SUNDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE SPINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. RIDGE AXIS WILL
BE ACROSS REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES.
AS HIGH SHIFTS EAST MONDAY WARM ADVECTION WILL BEGIN AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY WITH GRADIENT AND
WARM ADVECTION INCREASING AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT
PUSHING MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S. AS FRONT APPROACHES LATE DAY
TUESDAY A FEW SHOWERS WILL WORK INTO EASTERN OHIO TOWARD SUNSET.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH FROPA AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE STRETCHED ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. BY FRIDAY DEEPENING
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
SHOWERS BACK TO THE REGION FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
PASSING FROM TIME TO TIME. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE
AN INCREASE IN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS BY LATE MORNING WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30KTS LIKELY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WINDS
WILL STAY GUSTY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$














000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250448
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1248 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ONLY A STRAY
SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE HEADING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM PITTSBURGH NORTH.
OTHERWISE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S WILL RECOVER INTO THE
LOW AND MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AND COOLER AIR WORKS
IN BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE SUNDAY
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE SPINS ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR
SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND PROBABLY THE COLDEST NIGHT IN THE 7 DAY
FORECAST. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION...SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SHIFT TO THE
EAST DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND H850 TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL, BUT WILL BE SOMEWHAT
STUNTED DUE TO INCREASED MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES (78 DEGREES FOR
PITTSBURGH) FOR TUESDAY, BUT THE BEST MATCHING ANALOGS AND LOCAL
STUDIES SUGGEST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S IN GENERAL. IF
CLOUD COVERAGE DOES END UP LESS THAN EXPECTED, RECORD TEMPERATURES
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE RECORD FOR
NEXT TUESDAY IS SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN DATES BOTH BEFORE AND
AFTER. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING FRONTAL
PASSAGE TUESDAY EVENING SO POPS WERE INCREASED THEN AND OVERNIGHT
TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
PASSING FROM TIME TO TIME. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE
AN INCREASE IN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS BY LATE MORNING WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30KTS LIKELY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WINDS
WILL STAY GUSTY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$












000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250119
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
919 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXCEPT FOR A PASSING SHOWER ON SATURDAY...THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY
UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. DESPITE A BRIEF COOLDOWN ON
SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
920 PM UPDATE...AGAIN UPDATED SKY GRIDS FOR CURRENT TRENDS. PATCH
OF LOWER CLOUDS APPROACHING WESTERN CWA. EXPECT THIS TO EXPAND
SOMEWHAT WITH TIME AS DEPICTED ON NAM/RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS. SOME
HIGHER CLOUDS MAY STREAM OVER THE TOP AS WELL AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. LEFT LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST ALONE FOR THE
MOST PART. THINK TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABLE TO SINK A LITTLE
BIT BELOW LATEST LAMP NUMBERS GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...BEFORE
CLOUDS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD.

STILL DUBIOUS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR TOMORROW AS THERE IS A
LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. STILL...WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ALONG AND ALLOW NEXT SHIFT TO REEVALUATE.  CL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES DUE TO THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

CONFLICTED OVER THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SYNOPTIC MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWED A SMALL AMOUNT OF PRECIP
REMAINING NORTH OF PITTSBURGH WITH LIMITED SATURATION IN MODEL
PROFILES...WHILE 12Z HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ALL SHOW A LINE OF
SHOWERS EXTENDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. DO NOT HAVE THE
CONFIDENCE IN AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS TO THE
NORTH...BUT ALSO DONT FEEL COMFORTABLE LEAVING SOUTHERN COUNTIES
DRY. HATE TO BROADBRUSH THE FORECAST...BUT WILL GO WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWERS EVERYWHERE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY RUNNING ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BE
ON A DIMINISHING TREND. RECENT MODEL TRENDS PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH
SLIGHTLY FASTER...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE CLEARING AND CLOSER TO
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
CLOUD COVER TO LINGER ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR DUE TO LAKE ERIE
MOISTURE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR
SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND PROBABLY THE COLDEST NIGHT IN THE 7 DAY
FORECAST. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION...SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SHIFT TO THE
EAST DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND H850 TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL, BUT WILL BE SOMEWHAT
STUNTED DUE TO INCREASED MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES (78 DEGREES FOR
PITTSBURGH) FOR TUESDAY, BUT THE BEST MATCHING ANALOGS AND LOCAL
STUDIES SUGGEST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S IN GENERAL. IF
CLOUD COVERAGE DOES END UP LESS THAN EXPECTED, RECORD TEMPERATURES
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE RECORD FOR
NEXT TUESDAY IS SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN DATES BOTH BEFORE AND
AFTER. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING FRONTAL
PASSAGE TUESDAY EVENING SO POPS WERE INCREASED THEN AND OVERNIGHT
TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUD
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
WEST...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 242332
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
732 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXCEPT FOR A PASSING SHOWER ON SATURDAY...THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY
UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. DESPITE A BRIEF COOLDOWN ON
SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
610PM UPDATE...TWEAKED SKY GRIDS TONIGHT TO CURRENT SATELLITE
TRENDS. REST UNCHANGED FOR NOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES DUE TO THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

CONFLICTED OVER THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SYNOPTIC MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWED A SMALL AMOUNT OF PRECIP
REMAINING NORTH OF PITTSBURGH WITH LIMITED SATURATION IN MODEL
PROFILES...WHILE 12Z HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ALL SHOW A LINE OF
SHOWERS EXTENDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. DO NOT HAVE THE
CONFIDENCE IN AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS TO THE
NORTH...BUT ALSO DONT FEEL COMFORTABLE LEAVING SOUTHERN COUNTIES
DRY. HATE TO BROADBRUSH THE FORECAST...BUT WILL GO WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWERS EVERYWHERE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY RUNNING ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BE
ON A DIMINISHING TREND. RECENT MODEL TRENDS PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH
SLIGHTLY FASTER...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE CLEARING AND CLOSER TO
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
CLOUD COVER TO LINGER ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR DUE TO LAKE ERIE
MOISTURE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR
SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND PROBABLY THE COLDEST NIGHT IN THE 7 DAY
FORECAST. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION...SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SHIFT TO THE
EAST DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND H850 TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL, BUT WILL BE SOMEWHAT
STUNTED DUE TO INCREASED MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES (78 DEGREES FOR
PITTSBURGH) FOR TUESDAY, BUT THE BEST MATCHING ANALOGS AND LOCAL
STUDIES SUGGEST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S IN GENERAL. IF
CLOUD COVERAGE DOES END UP LESS THAN EXPECTED, RECORD TEMPERATURES
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE RECORD FOR
NEXT TUESDAY IS SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN DATES BOTH BEFORE AND
AFTER. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING FRONTAL
PASSAGE TUESDAY EVENING SO POPS WERE INCREASED THEN AND OVERNIGHT
TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUD
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
WEST...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 242211
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
611 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXCEPT FOR A PASSING SHOWER ON SATURDAY...THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY
UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. DESPITE A BRIEF COOLDOWN ON
SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
610PM UPDATE...TWEAKED SKY GRIDS TONIGHT TO CURRENT SATELLITE
TRENDS. REST UNCHANGED FOR NOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES DUE TO THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

CONFLICTED OVER THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SYNOPTIC MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWED A SMALL AMOUNT OF PRECIP
REMAINING NORTH OF PITTSBURGH WITH LIMITED SATURATION IN MODEL
PROFILES...WHILE 12Z HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ALL SHOW A LINE OF
SHOWERS EXTENDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. DO NOT HAVE THE
CONFIDENCE IN AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS TO THE
NORTH...BUT ALSO DONT FEEL COMFORTABLE LEAVING SOUTHERN COUNTIES
DRY. HATE TO BROADBRUSH THE FORECAST...BUT WILL GO WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWERS EVERYWHERE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY RUNNING ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BE
ON A DIMINISHING TREND. RECENT MODEL TRENDS PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH
SLIGHTLY FASTER...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE CLEARING AND CLOSER TO
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
CLOUD COVER TO LINGER ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR DUE TO LAKE ERIE
MOISTURE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR
SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND PROBABLY THE COLDEST NIGHT IN THE 7 DAY
FORECAST. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION...SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SHIFT TO THE
EAST DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND H850 TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL, BUT WILL BE SOMEWHAT
STUNTED DUE TO INCREASED MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES (78 DEGREES FOR
PITTSBURGH) FOR TUESDAY, BUT THE BEST MATCHING ANALOGS AND LOCAL
STUDIES SUGGEST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S IN GENERAL. IF
CLOUD COVERAGE DOES END UP LESS THAN EXPECTED, RECORD TEMPERATURES
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE RECORD FOR
NEXT TUESDAY IS SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN DATES BOTH BEFORE AND
AFTER. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING FRONTAL
PASSAGE TUESDAY EVENING SO POPS WERE INCREASED THEN AND OVERNIGHT
TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER, NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST,
BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY, HOWEVER, THERE
IS ONLY A 20% CHANCE OF ANY ASSOCIATED CIG OR VIS RESTRICTION`S.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241918
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
318 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXCEPT FOR A PASSING SHOWER ON SATURDAY...THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY
UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. DESPITE A BRIEF COOLDOWN ON
SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES DUE TO THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

CONFLICTED OVER THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SYNOPTIC MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWED A SMALL AMOUNT OF PRECIP
REMAINING NORTH OF PITTSBURGH WITH LIMITED SATURATION IN MODEL
PROFILES...WHILE 12Z HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ALL SHOW A LINE OF
SHOWERS EXTENDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. DO NOT HAVE THE
CONFIDENCE IN AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS TO THE
NORTH...BUT ALSO DONT FEEL COMFORTABLE LEAVING SOUTHERN COUNTIES
DRY. HATE TO BROADBRUSH THE FORECAST...BUT WILL GO WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWERS EVERYWHERE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY RUNNING ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BE
ON A DIMINISHING TREND. RECENT MODEL TRENDS PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH
SLIGHTLY FASTER...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE CLEARING AND CLOSER TO
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
CLOUD COVER TO LINGER ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR DUE TO LAKE ERIE
MOISTURE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR
SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND PROBABLY THE COLDEST NIGHT IN THE 7 DAY
FORECAST. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION...SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SHIFT TO THE
EAST DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND H850 TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL, BUT WILL BE SOMEWHAT
STUNTED DUE TO INCREASED MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES (78 DEGREES FOR
PITTSBURGH) FOR TUESDAY, BUT THE BEST MATCHING ANALOGS AND LOCAL
STUDIES SUGGEST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S IN GENERAL. IF
CLOUD COVERAGE DOES END UP LESS THAN EXPECTED, RECORD TEMPERATURES
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE RECORD FOR
NEXT TUESDAY IS SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN DATES BOTH BEFORE AND
AFTER. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING FRONTAL
PASSAGE TUESDAY EVENING SO POPS WERE INCREASED THEN AND OVERNIGHT
TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER, NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST,
BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY, HOWEVER, THERE
IS ONLY A 20% CHANCE OF ANY ASSOCIATED CIG OR VIS RESTRICTION`S.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241859
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
259 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. A
WARM UP INTO THE 70S IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A COLD
FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH NOON UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED SKY GRIDS AS OUTSIDE OF
SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...MOST STRATUS HAS DISSIPATED. ALSO
TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURE TREND.

MAINLY THIN CIRRUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK TROUGH ALOFT CROSSES THE REGION. TEMPERATURES A BLEND OF
MODEL MOS. TONIGHT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AS A
SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE CROSSES REGION SATURDAY WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE. ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF SYSTEM WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. DRIER AND A BIT COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND SYSTEM SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SHIFT TO THE
EAST DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND H850 TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL, BUT WILL BE SOMEWHAT
STUNTED DUE TO INCREASED MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES (78 DEGREES FOR
PITTSBURGH) FOR TUESDAY, BUT THE BEST MATCHING ANALOGS AND LOCAL
STUDIES SUGGEST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S IN GENERAL. IF
CLOUD COVERAGE DOES END UP LESS THAN EXPECTED, RECORD TEMPERATURES
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE RECORD FOR
NEXT TUESDAY IS SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN DATES BOTH BEFORE AND
AFTER. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING FRONTAL
PASSAGE TUESDAY EVENING SO POPS WERE INCREASED THEN AND OVERNIGHT
TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER, NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST,
BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY, HOWEVER, THERE
IS ONLY A 20% CHANCE OF ANY ASSOCIATED CIG OR VIS RESTRICTION`S.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241601
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1201 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. A
WARM UP INTO THE 70S IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A COLD
FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH NOON UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED SKY GRIDS AS OUTSIDE OF
SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...MOST STRATUS HAS DISSIPATED. ALSO
TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURE TREND.

MAINLY THIN CIRRUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK TROUGH ALOFT CROSSES THE REGION. TEMPERATURES A BLEND OF
MODEL MOS. TONIGHT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AS A
SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORTWAVE CROSSES REGION SATURDAY WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE. ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF SYSTEM WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. DRIER AND A BIT COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND SYSTEM SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR RIDGING ACRS THE ERN CONUS WL BEGIN TO SHIFT E TUE. THIS WL
ALLOW FOR THE APCH AND PASSAGE OF A MID WK...WKNG SHRTWV AND IT/S
ASSOCIATED SFC CDFNT. TIMING SPECIFICS AND AMT OF UPR SPPRT RMN IN
QN SO ONLY FCST CHC POPS ATTM. HIGH PRES IS PROGGED THU BEFORE GENL
UPR TROFG SETS UP BY LT WK. WITH OPERATIONAL MDL DIFFERENCES...
PREFERRED AN ENSEMBLE/WPC SOLN THRUT THE PD. WELL ABV AVG TEMPS ERLY
IN THE WK WL BE REPLACED BY SEASONABLY COOL LVLS AFT FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS IFR FOG
AND STRATUS HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED AT IMPACTED LOCATIONS. CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY, HOWEVER, THERE
IS ONLY A 20% CHANCE OF ANY ASSOCIATED CIG OR VIS RESTRICTION`S.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241545
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1145 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. A
WARM UP INTO THE 70S IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A COLD
FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH 830AM UPDATE...TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS...BUT NO
OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO AGAIN ADJUST SKY GRIDS FOR STRATUS THAT
HAS EXPANDED A BIT BEFORE DAYBREAK NORTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH.
WITH CIRRUS QUICKLY MOVING INTO REGION THIS MAY DELAY MIXING
SOMEWHAT SO HAVE KEPT MORE OVERCAST/BROKEN SKIES ACROSS THE EAST
INTO MID MORNING. WHERE SKIES HAVE REMAINED CLEAR VERY PATCHY FOG
HAS DEVELOPED...BUT THIS SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY AND HAVE NOT
MENTIONED. NO OTHER CHANGES.

STUBBORN AREA OF STRATUS FROM OIL CITY TO INDIANA AND DOWN THE
RIDGES SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID MORNING AS NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER RELAXES. MAINLY THIN CIRRUS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD
THE REGION AS A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT CROSSES THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES A BLEND OF MODEL MOS.

TONIGHT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AS A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORTWAVE CROSSES REGION SATURDAY WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE. ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF SYSTEM WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. DRIER AND A BIT COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND SYSTEM SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR RIDGING ACRS THE ERN CONUS WL BEGIN TO SHIFT E TUE. THIS WL
ALLOW FOR THE APCH AND PASSAGE OF A MID WK...WKNG SHRTWV AND IT/S
ASSOCIATED SFC CDFNT. TIMING SPECIFICS AND AMT OF UPR SPPRT RMN IN
QN SO ONLY FCST CHC POPS ATTM. HIGH PRES IS PROGGED THU BEFORE GENL
UPR TROFG SETS UP BY LT WK. WITH OPERATIONAL MDL DIFFERENCES...
PREFERRED AN ENSEMBLE/WPC SOLN THRUT THE PD. WELL ABV AVG TEMPS ERLY
IN THE WK WL BE REPLACED BY SEASONABLY COOL LVLS AFT FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS IFR FOG
AND STRATUS HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED AT IMPACTED LOCATIONS. CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY, HOWEVER, THERE
IS ONLY A 20% CHANCE OF ANY ASSOCIATED CIG OR VIS RESTRICTION`S.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241230
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
830 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. A
WARM UP INTO THE 70S IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A COLD
FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH 830AM UPDATE...TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS...BUT NO
OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO AGAIN ADJUST SKY GRIDS FOR STRATUS THAT
HAS EXPANDED A BIT BEFORE DAYBREAK NORTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH.
WITH CIRRUS QUICKLY MOVING INTO REGION THIS MAY DELAY MIXING
SOMEWHAT SO HAVE KEPT MORE OVERCAST/BROKEN SKIES ACROSS THE EAST
INTO MID MORNING. WHERE SKIES HAVE REMAINED CLEAR VERY PATCHY FOG
HAS DEVELOPED...BUT THIS SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY AND HAVE NOT
MENTIONED. NO OTHER CHANGES.

STUBBORN AREA OF STRATUS FROM OIL CITY TO INDIANA AND DOWN THE
RIDGES SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID MORNING AS NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER RELAXES. MAINLY THIN CIRRUS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD
THE REGION AS A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT CROSSES THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES A BLEND OF MODEL MOS.

TONIGHT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AS A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORTWAVE CROSSES REGION SATURDAY WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE. ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF SYSTEM WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. DRIER AND A BIT COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND SYSTEM SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR RIDGING ACRS THE ERN CONUS WL BEGIN TO SHIFT E TUE. THIS WL
ALLOW FOR THE APCH AND PASSAGE OF A MID WK...WKNG SHRTWV AND IT/S
ASSOCIATED SFC CDFNT. TIMING SPECIFICS AND AMT OF UPR SPPRT RMN IN
QN SO ONLY FCST CHC POPS ATTM. HIGH PRES IS PROGGED THU BEFORE GENL
UPR TROFG SETS UP BY LT WK. WITH OPERATIONAL MDL DIFFERENCES...
PREFERRED AN ENSEMBLE/WPC SOLN THRUT THE PD. WELL ABV AVG TEMPS ERLY
IN THE WK WL BE REPLACED BY SEASONABLY COOL LVLS AFT FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREAS OF LOW MVFR AND IFR ST IS EXPD TO AFFECT PORTS N AND E OF PIT
THRU ERLY MRNG WHERE MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION. IN
ADDN...PTCHY IFR FG WL CONT UNTIL JUST AFT SUNRISE ACRS OH AND THE
WV PANHANDLE. ELSW...VFR CONDS ARE EXPD INTO TNGT UNDER HIGH
PRES...THOUGH VFR SC IS EPXD TO INCR OVRNGT AHD OF AN APCHG WK
CDFNT.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BRF RSTRNS ARE PSBL FOR NW PA AS THE WK CDFNT CROSSES SAT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241003
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
603 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. A
WARM UP INTO THE 70S IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A COLD
FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO AGAIN ADJUST SKY GRIDS FOR STRATUS THAT
HAS EXPANDED A BIT BEFORE DAYBREAK NORTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH.
WITH CIRRUS QUICKLY MOVING INTO REGION THIS MAY DELAY MIXING
SOMEWHAT SO HAVE KEPT MORE OVERCAST/BROKEN SKIES ACROSS THE EAST
INTO MID MORNING. WHERE SKIES HAVE REMAINED CLEAR VERY PATCHY FOG
HAS DEVELOPED...BUT THIS SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY AND HAVE NOT
MENTIONED. NO OTHER CHANGES.

STUBBORN AREA OF STRATUS FROM OIL CITY TO INDIANA AND DOWN THE
RIDGES SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID MORNING AS NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER RELAXES. MAINLY THIN CIRRUS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD
THE REGION AS A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT CROSSES THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES A BLEND OF MODEL MOS.

TONIGHT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AS A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORTWAVE CROSSES REGION SATURDAY WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE. ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF SYSTEM WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. DRIER AND A BIT COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND SYSTEM SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR RIDGING ACRS THE ERN CONUS WL BEGIN TO SHIFT E TUE. THIS WL
ALLOW FOR THE APCH AND PASSAGE OF A MID WK...WKNG SHRTWV AND IT/S
ASSOCIATED SFC CDFNT. TIMING SPECIFICS AND AMT OF UPR SPPRT RMN IN
QN SO ONLY FCST CHC POPS ATTM. HIGH PRES IS PROGGED THU BEFORE GENL
UPR TROFG SETS UP BY LT WK. WITH OPERATIONAL MDL DIFFERENCES...
PREFERRED AN ENSEMBLE/WPC SOLN THRUT THE PD. WELL ABV AVG TEMPS ERLY
IN THE WK WL BE REPLACED BY SEASONABLY COOL LVLS AFT FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREAS OF LOW MVFR AND IFR ST IS EXPD TO AFFECT PORTS N AND E OF PIT
THRU ERLY MRNG WHERE MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION. IN
ADDN...PTCHY IFR FG WL CONT UNTIL JUST AFT SUNRISE ACRS OH AND THE
WV PANHANDLE. ELSW...VFR CONDS ARE EXPD INTO TNGT UNDER HIGH
PRES...THOUGH VFR SC IS EPXD TO INCR OVRNGT AHD OF AN APCHG WK
CDFNT.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BRF RSTRNS ARE PSBL FOR NW PA AS THE WK CDFNT CROSSES SAT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241003
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
603 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. A
WARM UP INTO THE 70S IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A COLD
FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO AGAIN ADJUST SKY GRIDS FOR STRATUS THAT
HAS EXPANDED A BIT BEFORE DAYBREAK NORTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH.
WITH CIRRUS QUICKLY MOVING INTO REGION THIS MAY DELAY MIXING
SOMEWHAT SO HAVE KEPT MORE OVERCAST/BROKEN SKIES ACROSS THE EAST
INTO MID MORNING. WHERE SKIES HAVE REMAINED CLEAR VERY PATCHY FOG
HAS DEVELOPED...BUT THIS SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY AND HAVE NOT
MENTIONED. NO OTHER CHANGES.

STUBBORN AREA OF STRATUS FROM OIL CITY TO INDIANA AND DOWN THE
RIDGES SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID MORNING AS NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER RELAXES. MAINLY THIN CIRRUS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD
THE REGION AS A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT CROSSES THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES A BLEND OF MODEL MOS.

TONIGHT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AS A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORTWAVE CROSSES REGION SATURDAY WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE. ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF SYSTEM WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. DRIER AND A BIT COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND SYSTEM SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR RIDGING ACRS THE ERN CONUS WL BEGIN TO SHIFT E TUE. THIS WL
ALLOW FOR THE APCH AND PASSAGE OF A MID WK...WKNG SHRTWV AND IT/S
ASSOCIATED SFC CDFNT. TIMING SPECIFICS AND AMT OF UPR SPPRT RMN IN
QN SO ONLY FCST CHC POPS ATTM. HIGH PRES IS PROGGED THU BEFORE GENL
UPR TROFG SETS UP BY LT WK. WITH OPERATIONAL MDL DIFFERENCES...
PREFERRED AN ENSEMBLE/WPC SOLN THRUT THE PD. WELL ABV AVG TEMPS ERLY
IN THE WK WL BE REPLACED BY SEASONABLY COOL LVLS AFT FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREAS OF LOW MVFR AND IFR ST IS EXPD TO AFFECT PORTS N AND E OF PIT
THRU ERLY MRNG WHERE MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION. IN
ADDN...PTCHY IFR FG WL CONT UNTIL JUST AFT SUNRISE ACRS OH AND THE
WV PANHANDLE. ELSW...VFR CONDS ARE EXPD INTO TNGT UNDER HIGH
PRES...THOUGH VFR SC IS EPXD TO INCR OVRNGT AHD OF AN APCHG WK
CDFNT.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BRF RSTRNS ARE PSBL FOR NW PA AS THE WK CDFNT CROSSES SAT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240935
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
535 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. A
WARM UP INTO THE 70S IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A COLD
FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO AGAIN ADJUST SKY GRIDS FOR STRATUS THAT
HAS EXPANDED A BIT BEFORE DAYBREAK NORTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH.
WITH CIRRUS QUICKLY MOVING INTO REGION THIS MAY DELAY MIXING
SOMEWHAT SO HAVE KEPT MORE OVERCAST/BROKEN SKIES ACROSS THE EAST
INTO MID MORNING. WHERE SKIES HAVE REMAINED CLEAR VERY PATCHY FOG
HAS DEVELOPED...BUT THIS SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY AND HAVE NOT
MENTIONED. NO OTHER CHANGES.

STUBBORN AREA OF STRATUS FROM OIL CITY TO INDIANA AND DOWN THE
RIDGES SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID MORNING AS NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER RELAXES. MAINLY THIN CIRRUS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD
THE REGION AS A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT CROSSES THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES A BLEND OF MODEL MOS.

TONIGHT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AS A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORTWAVE CROSSES REGION SATURDAY WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE. ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF SYSTEM WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. DRIER AND A BIT COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND SYSTEM SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR RIDGING ACRS THE ERN CONUS WL BEGIN TO SHIFT E TUE. THIS WL
ALLOW FOR THE APCH AND PASSAGE OF A MID WK...WKNG SHRTWV AND IT/S
ASSOCIATED SFC CDFNT. TIMING SPECIFICS AND AMT OF UPR SPPRT RMN IN
QN SO ONLY FCST CHC POPS ATTM. HIGH PRES IS PROGGED THU BEFORE GENL
UPR TROFG SETS UP BY LT WK. WITH OPERATIONAL MDL DIFFERENCES...
PREFERRED AN ENSEMBLE/WPC SOLN THRUT THE PD. WELL ABV AVG TEMPS ERLY
IN THE WK WL BE REPLACED BY SEASONABLY COOL LVLS AFT FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREAS OF LOW MVFR AND IFR ST IS EXPD TO AFFECT PORTS N AND E OF PIT
THRU ERLY MRNG WHERE MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION.
ELSW...OTHER THAN SOME ERLY MRNG MVFR BR IN OH VFR CONDS ARE EXPD
INTO TNGT UNDER BLDG HIGH PRES.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BRF RSTRNS ARE PSBL FOR NW PA WITH A WK SAT CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240708
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
308 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. A
WARM UP INTO THE 70S IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A COLD
FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STUBBORN AREA OF STRATUS FROM OIL CITY TO INDIANA AND DOWN THE
RIDGES SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID MORNING AS NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER RELAXES. MAINLY THIN CIRRUS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD
THE REGION AS A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT CROSSES THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES A BLEND OF MODEL MOS.

TONIGHT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AS A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORTWAVE CROSSES REGION SATURDAY WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE. ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF SYSTEM WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. DRIER AND A BIT COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND SYSTEM SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR RIDGING ACRS THE ERN CONUS WL BEGIN TO SHIFT E TUE. THIS WL
ALLOW FOR THE APCH AND PASSAGE OF A MID WK...WKNG SHRTWV AND IT/S
ASSOCIATED SFC CDFNT. TIMING SPECIFICS AND AMT OF UPR SPPRT RMN IN
QN SO ONLY FCST CHC POPS ATTM. HIGH PRES IS PROGGED THU BEFORE GENL
UPR TROFG SETS UP BY LT WK. WITH OPERATIONAL MDL DIFFERENCES...
PREFERRED AN ENSEMBLE/WPC SOLN THRUT THE PD. WELL ABV AVG TEMPS ERLY
IN THE WK WL BE REPLACED BY SEASONABLY COOL LVLS AFT FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREAS OF LOW MVFR AND IFR ST IS EXPD TO AFFECT PORTS N AND E OF PIT
THRU ERLY MRNG WHERE MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION.
ELSW...OTHER THAN SOME ERLY MRNG MVFR BR IN OH VFR CONDS ARE EXPD
INTO TNGT UNDER BLDG HIGH PRES.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BRF RSTRNS ARE PSBL FOR NW PA WITH A WK SAT CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240422
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1222 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. A WARM UP INTO THE 70S IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT UPDATE TO ADDRESS GROWING STATUS FROM INDIANA COUNTY TO
VENANGO AND NORTHEAST...AS WELL AS LINGERING STRATUS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST RIDGES TO KMGW. STILL THINK STRATUS WILL BE SHORT LIVED
WITH APPROACHING CIRRUS AND SURFACE RIDGE...AS NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL ABATE AS CLOSED LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHEAST.
ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES BUT FORECAST LOWS STILL LOOK IN LINE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.


H500 RIDGE AXIS APPROACHING...BUT WEAKENING DUE TO INFLUENCE OF
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE
SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE AND APPROACHING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. EXPECT THESE TO HOLD TOGETHER SOMEWHAT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF
THE OHIO RIVER. HAVE BUMPED UP SKY GRIDS SLIGHTLY IN THIS AREA.
STUBBORN LOWER CLOUDS IN SOUTHEASTERN CWA CORNER SHOULD ERODE
LATER TONIGHT AS RIDGE APPROACHES.

AS FOR FOG POTENTIAL...THE COMBINATION OF HIGH CLOUDS PLUS 15-20
KNOTS OF WIND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST FOG.
HAVE REMOVED IT FROM THE GRIDS. TEMPERATURES ONLY TWEAKED...WITH
MANY READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S STILL EXPECTED. CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHG TO PREV FCST DURG THE WKEND. SHRTWV TROF WILL PASS
GENLY N OF FCST AREA...BARELY GRAZING THE RGN ON SAT AFTN AND EVE.
VERY LMTD MSTR WILL PRECLUDE SGFNT SHWR DVLPMT...BUT ALL GUIDANCE
DOES INDICATE SOME CVRG OF PCPN WITH THIS WAVE PASSAGE. SLGT CHC
POPS CONTAINED IN PREV FCST SEEMED REASONABLE...WITH ONLY MINOR
CHGS LMTD TO TIMING AND GEOGRAPHY. SFC HIPRES BUILDS INTO THE RGN
ON SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PREV DRY FCST WAS QUITE REASONABLE THRU TUE AS DRY HIPRES WILL
DOMINATE THE GRTLKS RGN...WHICH WILL BE LOCATED DOWNSTREAM OF UPR
RDG. BY MONDAY EVE...RETURN FLOW AROUND ERN CONUS SFC HIPRES WILL
BE IN FULL FORCE...WITH SLY LOW-LVL JET DVLPG IN THE MS RVR VLY
RGN AHEAD OF A STRONG SHRTWV TROF. RESULT WILL BE STRONG NWD
ADVCTN OF MSTR AND WARMTH. AS A RESULT...TEMPS MON AND SPCLY TUE
WILL BE UNUSUALLY WARM...PSBLY AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEG F ABV CLIMO.

MEDIUM-RNG GUIDANCE IS QUITE CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING PASSAGE OF
THE STRONG SHRTWV TROF ON WED...ALTHOUGH TIMING IS UNCLEAR ON
WHETHER THAT PASSAGE WILL OCCUR WED MRNG OR WED AFTN. IN EITHER
CASE...POPS WERE INCRD ABV MEX NUMBERS AND GENLY IN LINE WITH HPC
NUMBERS DURING THE WED PD. A FURTHER INCR IN POPS MAY BE WARRANTED...
AS IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE MEASURABLE PCPN AT SOME TIME ON
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREAS OF LOW MVFR ST ACRS NW PA IS EXPD TO AFFECT FKL AND DUJ OVRNGT
WHERE MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION. ELSW...OTHER THAN SOME
ERLY MRNG MVFR BR IN OH VFR CONDS ARE EXPD INTO TNGT UNDER BLDG HIGH
PRES.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BRF RSTRNS ARE PSBL FOR NW PA WITH A WK SAT CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240134
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
934 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. A WARMUP INTO THE 70S IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
H500 RIDGE AXIS APPROACHING...BUT WEAKENING DUE TO INFLUENCE OF
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE
SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE AND APPROACHING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. EXPECT THESE TO HOLD TOGETHER SOMEWHAT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF
THE OHIO RIVER. HAVE BUMPED UP SKY GRIDS SLIGHTLY IN THIS AREA.
STUBBORN LOWER CLOUDS IN SOUTHEASTERN CWA CORNER SHOULD ERODE
LATER TONIGHT AS RIDGE APPROACHES.

AS FOR FOG POTENTIAL...THE COMBINATION OF HIGH CLOUDS PLUS 15-20
KNOTS OF WIND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST FOG.
HAVE REMOVED IT FROM THE GRIDS. TEMPERATURES ONLY TWEAKED...WITH
MANY READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S STILL EXPECTED. CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHG TO PREV FCST DURG THE WKEND. SHRTWV TROF WILL PASS
GENLY N OF FCST AREA...BARELY GRAZING THE RGN ON SAT AFTN AND EVE.
VERY LMTD MSTR WILL PRECLUDE SGFNT SHWR DVLPMT...BUT ALL GUIDANCE
DOES INDICATE SOME CVRG OF PCPN WITH THIS WAVE PASSAGE. SLGT CHC
POPS CONTAINED IN PREV FCST SEEMED REASONABLE...WITH ONLY MINOR
CHGS LMTD TO TIMING AND GEOGRAPHY. SFC HIPRES BUILDS INTO THE RGN
ON SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PREV DRY FCST WAS QUITE REASONABLE THRU TUE AS DRY HIPRES WILL
DOMINATE THE GRTLKS RGN...WHICH WILL BE LOCATED DOWNSTREAM OF UPR
RDG. BY MONDAY EVE...RETURN FLOW AROUND ERN CONUS SFC HIPRES WILL
BE IN FULL FORCE...WITH SLY LOW-LVL JET DVLPG IN THE MS RVR VLY
RGN AHEAD OF A STRONG SHRTWV TROF. RESULT WILL BE STRONG NWD
ADVCTN OF MSTR AND WARMTH. AS A RESULT...TEMPS MON AND SPCLY TUE
WILL BE UNUSUALLY WARM...PSBLY AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEG F ABV CLIMO.

MEDIUM-RNG GUIDANCE IS QUITE CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING PASSAGE OF
THE STRONG SHRTWV TROF ON WED...ALTHOUGH TIMING IS UNCLEAR ON
WHETHER THAT PASSAGE WILL OCCUR WED MRNG OR WED AFTN. IN EITHER
CASE...POPS WERE INCRD ABV MEX NUMBERS AND GENLY IN LINE WITH HPC
NUMBERS DURING THE WED PD. A FURTHER INCR IN POPS MAY BE WARRANTED...
AS IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE MEASURABLE PCPN AT SOME TIME ON
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 232327
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
727 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. A WARMUP INTO THE 70S IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
6PM UPDATE...MAINLY JUST UPDATED FOR CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS.
REST LEFT ALONE FOR NOW. WILL REEVALUATE FOG POSSIBILITIES LATER
THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN A
WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...WHICH WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT INVERSIONS TO
SET UP. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. HOWEVER...IF MORE
UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST...TEMPERATURES MAY NOT DROP FAR ENOUGH TO BRING SURFACE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TOGETHER. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE
MENTION OF FOG IN THE FORECAST FROM EARLY MORNING UNTIL SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PASS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE
MUCH IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER AS THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHG TO PREV FCST DURG THE WKEND. SHRTWV TROF WILL PASS
GENLY N OF FCST AREA...BARELY GRAZING THE RGN ON SAT AFTN AND EVE.
VERY LMTD MSTR WILL PRECLUDE SGFNT SHWR DVLPMT...BUT ALL GUIDANCE
DOES INDICATE SOME CVRG OF PCPN WITH THIS WAVE PASSAGE. SLGT CHC
POPS CONTAINED IN PREV FCST SEEMED REASONABLE...WITH ONLY MINOR
CHGS LMTD TO TIMING AND GEOGRAPHY. SFC HIPRES BUILDS INTO THE RGN
ON SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PREV DRY FCST WAS QUITE REASONABLE THRU TUE AS DRY HIPRES WILL
DOMINATE THE GRTLKS RGN...WHICH WILL BE LOCATED DOWNSTREAM OF UPR
RDG. BY MONDAY EVE...RETURN FLOW AROUND ERN CONUS SFC HIPRES WILL
BE IN FULL FORCE...WITH SLY LOW-LVL JET DVLPG IN THE MS RVR VLY
RGN AHEAD OF A STRONG SHRTWV TROF. RESULT WILL BE STRONG NWD
ADVCTN OF MSTR AND WARMTH. AS A RESULT...TEMPS MON AND SPCLY TUE
WILL BE UNUSUALLY WARM...PSBLY AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEG F ABV CLIMO.

MEDIUM-RNG GUIDANCE IS QUITE CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING PASSAGE OF
THE STRONG SHRTWV TROF ON WED...ALTHOUGH TIMING IS UNCLEAR ON
WHETHER THAT PASSAGE WILL OCCUR WED MRNG OR WED AFTN. IN EITHER
CASE...POPS WERE INCRD ABV MEX NUMBERS AND GENLY IN LINE WITH HPC
NUMBERS DURING THE WED PD. A FURTHER INCR IN POPS MAY BE WARRANTED...
AS IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE MEASURABLE PCPN AT SOME TIME ON
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 232208
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
608 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. A WARMUP INTO THE 70S IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
6PM UPDATE...MAINLY JUST UPDATED FOR CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS.
REST LEFT ALONE FOR NOW. WILL REEVALUATE FOG POSSIBILITIES LATER
THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN A
WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...WHICH WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT INVERSIONS TO
SET UP. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. HOWEVER...IF MORE
UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST...TEMPERATURES MAY NOT DROP FAR ENOUGH TO BRING SURFACE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TOGETHER. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE
MENTION OF FOG IN THE FORECAST FROM EARLY MORNING UNTIL SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PASS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE
MUCH IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER AS THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHG TO PREV FCST DURG THE WKEND. SHRTWV TROF WILL PASS
GENLY N OF FCST AREA...BARELY GRAZING THE RGN ON SAT AFTN AND EVE.
VERY LMTD MSTR WILL PRECLUDE SGFNT SHWR DVLPMT...BUT ALL GUIDANCE
DOES INDICATE SOME CVRG OF PCPN WITH THIS WAVE PASSAGE. SLGT CHC
POPS CONTAINED IN PREV FCST SEEMED REASONABLE...WITH ONLY MINOR
CHGS LMTD TO TIMING AND GEOGRAPHY. SFC HIPRES BUILDS INTO THE RGN
ON SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PREV DRY FCST WAS QUITE REASONABLE THRU TUE AS DRY HIPRES WILL
DOMINATE THE GRTLKS RGN...WHICH WILL BE LOCATED DOWNSTREAM OF UPR
RDG. BY MONDAY EVE...RETURN FLOW AROUND ERN CONUS SFC HIPRES WILL
BE IN FULL FORCE...WITH SLY LOW-LVL JET DVLPG IN THE MS RVR VLY
RGN AHEAD OF A STRONG SHRTWV TROF. RESULT WILL BE STRONG NWD
ADVCTN OF MSTR AND WARMTH. AS A RESULT...TEMPS MON AND SPCLY TUE
WILL BE UNUSUALLY WARM...PSBLY AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEG F ABV CLIMO.

MEDIUM-RNG GUIDANCE IS QUITE CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING PASSAGE OF
THE STRONG SHRTWV TROF ON WED...ALTHOUGH TIMING IS UNCLEAR ON
WHETHER THAT PASSAGE WILL OCCUR WED MRNG OR WED AFTN. IN EITHER
CASE...POPS WERE INCRD ABV MEX NUMBERS AND GENLY IN LINE WITH HPC
NUMBERS DURING THE WED PD. A FURTHER INCR IN POPS MAY BE WARRANTED...
AS IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE MEASURABLE PCPN AT SOME TIME ON
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE...NO
RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231937
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
337 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. A WARMUP INTO THE 70S IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN A
WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...WHICH WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT INVERSIONS TO
SET UP. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. HOWEVER...IF MORE
UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST...TEMPERATURES MAY NOT DROP FAR ENOUGH TO BRING SURFACE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TOGETHER. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE
MENTION OF FOG IN THE FORECAST FROM EARLY MORNING UNTIL SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PASS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE
MUCH IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER AS THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHG TO PREV FCST DURG THE WKEND. SHRTWV TROF WILL PASS
GENLY N OF FCST AREA...BARELY GRAZING THE RGN ON SAT AFTN AND EVE.
VERY LMTD MSTR WILL PRECLUDE SGFNT SHWR DVLPMT...BUT ALL GUIDANCE
DOES INDICATE SOME CVRG OF PCPN WITH THIS WAVE PASSAGE. SLGT CHC
POPS CONTAINED IN PREV FCST SEEMED REASONABLE...WITH ONLY MINOR
CHGS LMTD TO TIMING AND GEOGRAPHY. SFC HIPRES BUILDS INTO THE RGN
ON SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PREV DRY FCST WAS QUITE REASONABLE THRU TUE AS DRY HIPRES WILL
DOMINATE THE GRTLKS RGN...WHICH WILL BE LOCATED DOWNSTREAM OF UPR
RDG. BY MONDAY EVE...RETURN FLOW AROUND ERN CONUS SFC HIPRES WILL
BE IN FULL FORCE...WITH SLY LOW-LVL JET DVLPG IN THE MS RVR VLY
RGN AHEAD OF A STRONG SHRTWV TROF. RESULT WILL BE STRONG NWD
ADVCTN OF MSTR AND WARMTH. AS A RESULT...TEMPS MON AND SPCLY TUE
WILL BE UNUSUALLY WARM...PSBLY AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEG F ABV CLIMO.

MEDIUM-RNG GUIDANCE IS QUITE CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING PASSAGE OF
THE STRONG SHRTWV TROF ON WED...ALTHOUGH TIMING IS UNCLEAR ON
WHETHER THAT PASSAGE WILL OCCUR WED MRNG OR WED AFTN. IN EITHER
CASE...POPS WERE INCRD ABV MEX NUMBERS AND GENLY IN LINE WITH HPC
NUMBERS DURING THE WED PD. A FURTHER INCR IN POPS MAY BE WARRANTED...
AS IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE MEASURABLE PCPN AT SOME TIME ON
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE...NO
RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

88/KRAMAR







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231937
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
337 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. A WARMUP INTO THE 70S IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN A
WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...WHICH WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT INVERSIONS TO
SET UP. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. HOWEVER...IF MORE
UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST...TEMPERATURES MAY NOT DROP FAR ENOUGH TO BRING SURFACE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TOGETHER. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE
MENTION OF FOG IN THE FORECAST FROM EARLY MORNING UNTIL SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PASS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE
MUCH IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER AS THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHG TO PREV FCST DURG THE WKEND. SHRTWV TROF WILL PASS
GENLY N OF FCST AREA...BARELY GRAZING THE RGN ON SAT AFTN AND EVE.
VERY LMTD MSTR WILL PRECLUDE SGFNT SHWR DVLPMT...BUT ALL GUIDANCE
DOES INDICATE SOME CVRG OF PCPN WITH THIS WAVE PASSAGE. SLGT CHC
POPS CONTAINED IN PREV FCST SEEMED REASONABLE...WITH ONLY MINOR
CHGS LMTD TO TIMING AND GEOGRAPHY. SFC HIPRES BUILDS INTO THE RGN
ON SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PREV DRY FCST WAS QUITE REASONABLE THRU TUE AS DRY HIPRES WILL
DOMINATE THE GRTLKS RGN...WHICH WILL BE LOCATED DOWNSTREAM OF UPR
RDG. BY MONDAY EVE...RETURN FLOW AROUND ERN CONUS SFC HIPRES WILL
BE IN FULL FORCE...WITH SLY LOW-LVL JET DVLPG IN THE MS RVR VLY
RGN AHEAD OF A STRONG SHRTWV TROF. RESULT WILL BE STRONG NWD
ADVCTN OF MSTR AND WARMTH. AS A RESULT...TEMPS MON AND SPCLY TUE
WILL BE UNUSUALLY WARM...PSBLY AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEG F ABV CLIMO.

MEDIUM-RNG GUIDANCE IS QUITE CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING PASSAGE OF
THE STRONG SHRTWV TROF ON WED...ALTHOUGH TIMING IS UNCLEAR ON
WHETHER THAT PASSAGE WILL OCCUR WED MRNG OR WED AFTN. IN EITHER
CASE...POPS WERE INCRD ABV MEX NUMBERS AND GENLY IN LINE WITH HPC
NUMBERS DURING THE WED PD. A FURTHER INCR IN POPS MAY BE WARRANTED...
AS IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE MEASURABLE PCPN AT SOME TIME ON
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE...NO
RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

88/KRAMAR







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231900
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
300 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT
IN A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES, WHICH WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT
INVERSIONS TO SET UP. WITH THAT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES,
HOWEVER, IF MORE UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST COMES THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST TEMPERATURES MAY NOT DROP FAR
ENOUGH TO BRING SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ENOUGH. FOR NOW HAVE
OPTED TO INCLUDE MENTION OF FOG IN THE FORECAST FROM EARLY MORNING
UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FOR THESE AREAS. A SHORTWAVE WILL
BEGIN TO PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER AS THERE IS
VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOR THE WEEKEND A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY CROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. DRY AND BREEZY SUNDAY
IN NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RIDGING WL ADVN EWD ACRS THE RGN INTO ERLY NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN
THE FCST. MDLS DIFFER ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A MID WK TROF. GENLY
SIDED CLOSE TO A WEAKER ENSEMBLE/WPC SOLN...KEEPING LOW SHWR CHCS
MID WK. WRM ADVCTN IS EXPD TO BRING ABV SEASONAL AVG TEMPS ERLY NXT
WK...WITH A RTN TO SEASONABLY COOL NMBRS AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE MID
WK TROF.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, BUT IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

O
THE RGN.

.AVIATION /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING, BUT OTHERWISE, NO
RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231900
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
300 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT
IN A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES, WHICH WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT
INVERSIONS TO SET UP. WITH THAT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES,
HOWEVER, IF MORE UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST COMES THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST TEMPERATURES MAY NOT DROP FAR
ENOUGH TO BRING SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ENOUGH. FOR NOW HAVE
OPTED TO INCLUDE MENTION OF FOG IN THE FORECAST FROM EARLY MORNING
UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FOR THESE AREAS. A SHORTWAVE WILL
BEGIN TO PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER AS THERE IS
VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOR THE WEEKEND A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY CROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. DRY AND BREEZY SUNDAY
IN NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RIDGING WL ADVN EWD ACRS THE RGN INTO ERLY NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN
THE FCST. MDLS DIFFER ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A MID WK TROF. GENLY
SIDED CLOSE TO A WEAKER ENSEMBLE/WPC SOLN...KEEPING LOW SHWR CHCS
MID WK. WRM ADVCTN IS EXPD TO BRING ABV SEASONAL AVG TEMPS ERLY NXT
WK...WITH A RTN TO SEASONABLY COOL NMBRS AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE MID
WK TROF.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, BUT IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

O
THE RGN.

.AVIATION /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING, BUT OTHERWISE, NO
RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231344
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
944 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND DECREASE CLOUDS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MINIMAL CHANGE NEEDED THIS MORNING AS THE CURRENT FORECAST ALIGNS
WELL WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS..

BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS MORNING WITH
CLEARING WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
FARTHER OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE RIDGES UNTIL
LATE DAY. TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WELL INTO THE 30S. REGION HAS PAST DATES
FOR ANY FROST OR FREEZE PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND A BIT MILDER
TEMPERATURES. FOR THE WEEKEND A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL
QUICKLY CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. DRY AND
BREEZY SUNDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING WL ADVN EWD ACRS THE RGN INTO ERLY NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN
THE FCST. MDLS DIFFER ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A MID WK TROF. GENLY
SIDED CLOSE TO A WEAKER ENSEMBLE/WPC SOLN...KEEPING LOW SHWR CHCS
MID WK. WRM ADVCTN IS EXPD TO BRING ABV SEASONAL AVG TEMPS ERLY NXT
WK...WITH A RTN TO SEASONABLY COOL NMBRS AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE MID
WK TROF.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SPOTTY MVFR CIGS WILL DIMINISH BY MID MORNING AS DRIER AIR MOVES
IN ALOFT OUT OF THE NORTH. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PATCHY MVFR
VISIIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, BUT IN GENERAL VFR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THGE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK.

O
THE RGN.

.AVIATION /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PTCHY MVFR IN BR IS PSBL ERLY FRI MRNG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231025
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
625 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND DECREASE CLOUDS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING ADJUSTMENT TO SKY GRIDS AND WINDS. LARGER BREAKS ON
SAT PIX ACROSS EASTERN OHIO TO THE WV PANHANDLE AND HAVE BEGUN THE
CLEARING PROCESS A BIT EARLIER THOSE AREAS. ALSO ADJUSTED WINDS TO
DIMINISH MORE QUICKLY TOWARD SUNSET. PREVIOUS BELOW.


BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS MORNING WITH
CLEARING WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
FARTHER OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE RIDGES UNTIL
LATE DAY. TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WELL INTO THE 30S. REGION HAS PAST DATES
FOR ANY FROST OR FREEZE PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND A BIT MILDER
TEMPERATURES. FOR THE WEEKEND A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL
QUICKLY CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. DRY AND
BREEZY SUNDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING WL ADVN EWD ACRS THE RGN INTO ERLY NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN
THE FCST. MDLS DIFFER ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A MID WK TROF. GENLY
SIDED CLOSE TO A WEAKER ENSEMBLE/WPC SOLN...KEEPING LOW SHWR CHCS
MID WK. WRM ADVCTN IS EXPD TO BRING ABV SEASONAL AVG TEMPS ERLY NXT
WK...WITH A RTN TO SEASONABLY COOL NMBRS AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE MID
WK TROF.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR SC...WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND ISOLD IFR...WL CONT IN N FLOW
ARND E COAST LOW PRES. THE CIGS SHOULD GRDLY ERODE LTR THIS MRNG
INTO ERLY AFTN AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN AS THE LOW DRIFTS
NE...RTNG VFR CONDS TO THE RGN.

.AVIATION /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PTCHY MVFR IN BR IS PSBL ERLY FRI MRNG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230944
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
544 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND DECREASE CLOUDS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING ADJUSTMENT TO SKY GRIDS AND WINDS. LARGER BREAKS ON
SAT PIX ACROSS EASTERN OHIO TO THE WV PANHANDLE AND HAVE BEGUN THE
CLEARING PROCESS A BIT EARLIER THOSE AREAS. ALSO ADJUSTED WINDS TO
DIMINISH MORE QUICKLY TOWARD SUNSET. PREVIOUS BELOW.


BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS MORNING WITH
CLEARING WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
FARTHER OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE RIDGES UNTIL
LATE DAY. TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WELL INTO THE 30S. REGION HAS PAST DATES
FOR ANY FROST OR FREEZE PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND A BIT MILDER
TEMPERATURES. FOR THE WEEKEND A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL
QUICKLY CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. DRY AND
BREEZY SUNDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING WL ADVN EWD ACRS THE RGN INTO ERLY NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN
THE FCST. MDLS DIFFER ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A MID WK TROF. GENLY
SIDED CLOSE TO A WEAKER ENSEMBLE/WPC SOLN...KEEPING LOW SHWR CHCS
MID WK. WRM ADVCTN IS EXPD TO BRING ABV SEASONAL AVG TEMPS ERLY NXT
WK...WITH A RTN TO SEASONABLY COOL NMBRS AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE MID
WK TROF.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR SC...WITH AREAS OF MVFR SC...WL CONT IN N FLOW ARND E COAST LOW
PRES. THE CIGS SHOULD GRDLY ERODE LTR THIS MRNG AS DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO MOVE IN AS THE LOW DRIFTS NE...RTNG VFR CONDS TO THE RGN.

.AVIATION /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230944
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
544 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND DECREASE CLOUDS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING ADJUSTMENT TO SKY GRIDS AND WINDS. LARGER BREAKS ON
SAT PIX ACROSS EASTERN OHIO TO THE WV PANHANDLE AND HAVE BEGUN THE
CLEARING PROCESS A BIT EARLIER THOSE AREAS. ALSO ADJUSTED WINDS TO
DIMINISH MORE QUICKLY TOWARD SUNSET. PREVIOUS BELOW.


BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS MORNING WITH
CLEARING WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
FARTHER OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE RIDGES UNTIL
LATE DAY. TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WELL INTO THE 30S. REGION HAS PAST DATES
FOR ANY FROST OR FREEZE PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND A BIT MILDER
TEMPERATURES. FOR THE WEEKEND A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL
QUICKLY CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. DRY AND
BREEZY SUNDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING WL ADVN EWD ACRS THE RGN INTO ERLY NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN
THE FCST. MDLS DIFFER ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A MID WK TROF. GENLY
SIDED CLOSE TO A WEAKER ENSEMBLE/WPC SOLN...KEEPING LOW SHWR CHCS
MID WK. WRM ADVCTN IS EXPD TO BRING ABV SEASONAL AVG TEMPS ERLY NXT
WK...WITH A RTN TO SEASONABLY COOL NMBRS AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE MID
WK TROF.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR SC...WITH AREAS OF MVFR SC...WL CONT IN N FLOW ARND E COAST LOW
PRES. THE CIGS SHOULD GRDLY ERODE LTR THIS MRNG AS DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO MOVE IN AS THE LOW DRIFTS NE...RTNG VFR CONDS TO THE RGN.

.AVIATION /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230714
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
314 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND DECREASE CLOUDS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS MORNING WITH
CLEARING WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
FARTHER OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE RIDGES UNTIL
LATE DAY. TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WELL INTO THE 30S. REGION HAS PAST DATES
FOR ANY FROST OR FREEZE PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND A BIT MILDER
TEMPERATURES. FOR THE WEEKEND A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL
QUICKLY CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. DRY AND
BREEZY SUNDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING WL ADVN EWD ACRS THE RGN INTO ERLY NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN
THE FCST. MDLS DIFFER ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A MID WK TROF. GENLY
SIDED CLOSE TO A WEAKER ENSEMBLE/WPC SOLN...KEEPING LOW SHWR CHCS
MID WK. WRM ADVCTN IS EXPD TO BRING ABV SEASONAL AVG TEMPS ERLY NXT
WK...WITH A RTN TO SEASONABLY COOL NMBRS AFT THE PASSAGE OF THE MID
WK TROF.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR SC...WITH AREAS OF MVFR SC...WL CONT IN N FLOW ARND E COAST LOW
PRES. THE CIGS SHOULD GRDLY ERODE LTR THIS MRNG AS DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO MOVE IN AS THE LOW DRIFTS NE...RTNG VFR CONDS TO THE RGN.

.AVIATION /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230416
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1216 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...ALLOWING A HIGH
TO BUILD IN WITH DRY AND MILDER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A FEW HOLES IN OVERCAST BUT BASICALLY STRATUS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY AS CLOSED LOW CONTINUES
TO SPIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EDGE EAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ERODING CLOUDS IN
THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SKIES TO BEGIN TO CLEAR WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES STEADY OVERNIGHT IN THE 40S AND
UPPER 30S...RECOVERING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PUSH
ACROSS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ON FRIDAY.

MODELS THEN INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY.  AFTER DRY WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT...HAVE
RE-INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR SC WL CONT IN N FLOW ARND E COAST LOW PRES. THE CIGS
SHOULD GRDLY ERODE LTR THIS MRNG AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN AS
THE LOW DRIFTS NE...RTNG VFR CONDS TO THE RGN.

.AVIATION /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$














000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230416
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1216 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...ALLOWING A HIGH
TO BUILD IN WITH DRY AND MILDER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A FEW HOLES IN OVERCAST BUT BASICALLY STRATUS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY AS CLOSED LOW CONTINUES
TO SPIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EDGE EAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ERODING CLOUDS IN
THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SKIES TO BEGIN TO CLEAR WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES STEADY OVERNIGHT IN THE 40S AND
UPPER 30S...RECOVERING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PUSH
ACROSS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ON FRIDAY.

MODELS THEN INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY.  AFTER DRY WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT...HAVE
RE-INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR SC WL CONT IN N FLOW ARND E COAST LOW PRES. THE CIGS
SHOULD GRDLY ERODE LTR THIS MRNG AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN AS
THE LOW DRIFTS NE...RTNG VFR CONDS TO THE RGN.

.AVIATION /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$














000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230154 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
954 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...ALLOWING A HIGH TO
BUILD IN...RESULTING IN DRY AND WARM WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.  A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
10PM UPDATE...STILL WRESTLING WITH CLOUD COVER. LARGE HOLE HAS
DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF OHIO/WPA. HOWEVER THIS HAS CLOSED BACK
IN QUICKLY TO THE NORTH. WILL STILL CONTINUE WITH A CLOUDY
FORECAST OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

UPPER LOW...CENTERED OFF THE DELMARVA COAST...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES AWAY...MODELS INDICATE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN.

AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS DRY BEFORE SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.

USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PUSH
ACROSS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ON FRIDAY.

MODELS THEN INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY.  AFTER DRY WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT...HAVE
RE-INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT UNDER CONTINUED
CYCLONIC FLOW. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
12Z THURSDAY...AFTER WHICH VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW SITES SCATTERING OUT EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED AS
DRY AIR TRIES TO INTRUDE FROM THE NORTH...BUT FEEL THAT CLOUDS
WILL HOLD ON TOUGH.  N/NW WINDS WILL SLACKEN OFF THIS EVENING.

.AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230154 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
954 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...ALLOWING A HIGH TO
BUILD IN...RESULTING IN DRY AND WARM WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.  A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
10PM UPDATE...STILL WRESTLING WITH CLOUD COVER. LARGE HOLE HAS
DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF OHIO/WPA. HOWEVER THIS HAS CLOSED BACK
IN QUICKLY TO THE NORTH. WILL STILL CONTINUE WITH A CLOUDY
FORECAST OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

UPPER LOW...CENTERED OFF THE DELMARVA COAST...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES AWAY...MODELS INDICATE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN.

AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS DRY BEFORE SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.

USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PUSH
ACROSS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ON FRIDAY.

MODELS THEN INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY.  AFTER DRY WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT...HAVE
RE-INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT UNDER CONTINUED
CYCLONIC FLOW. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
12Z THURSDAY...AFTER WHICH VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW SITES SCATTERING OUT EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED AS
DRY AIR TRIES TO INTRUDE FROM THE NORTH...BUT FEEL THAT CLOUDS
WILL HOLD ON TOUGH.  N/NW WINDS WILL SLACKEN OFF THIS EVENING.

.AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 222332
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
732 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...ALLOWING A HIGH TO
BUILD IN...RESULTING IN DRY AND WARM WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.  A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
730PM UPDATE...CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE FORECAST HEADACHE.
LATEST SAT PICS ARE SHOWING DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO INTRUDE IN THE
STRATOCU DECK IN NW PA AND NE OHIO. LATEST HIRES DATA IS
PRESENTING AN EXPANSION OF THIS DRY AIR OVERNIGHT. HAVING A HARD
TIME BELIEVING THIS AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO KEEP A
SATURATED LAYER AND CYCLONIC ROTATION CONTINUES IN THE MID AND
LOWER LEVELS OVERNIGHT. HAVE DECREASED CLOUDS JUST A BIT... BUT DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH IMPROVEMENT UNTIL LATER THU MORNING. TEMPS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED WITH LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

UPPER LOW...CENTERED OFF THE DELMARVA COAST...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES AWAY...MODELS INDICATE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN.

AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS DRY BEFORE SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.

USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PUSH
ACROSS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ON FRIDAY.

MODELS THEN INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY.  AFTER DRY WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT...HAVE
RE-INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT UNDER CONTINUED
CYCLONIC FLOW. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
12Z THURSDAY...AFTER WHICH VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW SITES SCATTERING OUT EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED AS
DRY AIR TRIES TO INTRUDE FROM THE NORTH...BUT FEEL THAT CLOUDS
WILL HOLD ON TOUGH.  N/NW WINDS WILL SLACKEN OFF THIS EVENING.

.AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 222322 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
722 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...ALLOWING A HIGH TO
BUILD IN...RESULTING IN DRY AND WARM WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.  A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
730PM UPDATE...CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE FORECAST HEADACHE.
LATEST SAT PICS ARE SHOWING DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO INTRUDE IN THE
STRATOCU DECK IN NW PA AND NE OHIO. LATEST HIRES DATA IS
PRESENTING AN EXPANSION OF THIS DRY AIR OVERNIGHT. HAVING A HARD
TIME BELIEVING THIS AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO KEEP A
SATURATED LAYER AND CYCLONIC ROTATION CONTINUES IN THE MID AND
LOWER LEVELS OVERNIGHT. HAVE DECREASED CLOUDS JUST A BIT... BUT DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH IMPROVEMENT UNTIL LATER THU MORNING. TEMPS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED WITH LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

UPPER LOW...CENTERED OFF THE DELMARVA COAST...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES AWAY...MODELS INDICATE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN.

AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS DRY BEFORE SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.

USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PUSH
ACROSS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ON FRIDAY.

MODELS THEN INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY.  AFTER DRY WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT...HAVE
RE-INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TNGT WITH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. DRY AIR SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO BREAK
UP FROM THE NORTH AND WEST AFT 04Z.  CLEARING AT ZZV MAY BE EARLY
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...WINDS MAY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY FG AT A MINIMUM
AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF ZZV TAF FOR NOW.

.AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221818
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
220 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...ALLOWING A HIGH TO
BUILD IN...RESULTING IN DRY AND WARM WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.  A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW...CENTERED OFF THE DELMARVA COAST...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES AWAY...MODELS INDICATE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN.

AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS DRY BEFORE SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.

USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PUSH
ACROSS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ON FRIDAY.

MODELS THEN INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY.  AFTER DRY WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT...HAVE
RE-INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR
SATURDAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TNGT WITH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. DRY AIR SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO BREAK
UP FROM THE NORTH AND WEST AFT 04Z.  CLEARING AT ZZV MAY BE EARLY
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...WINDS MAY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY FG AT A MINIMUM
AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF ZZV TAF FOR NOW.

.AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

JSH











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221738
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
137 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...ALLOWING A HIGH TO
BUILD IN...RESULTING IN DRY AND WARM WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.  A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE NR TERM GRIDS BASED ON OBS AND RADAR FOR THE
PRE DAWN UPDT.

PREVIOUS DISC...MATURATION OF LOW PRES IS STILL MDL PROGGED OVR
THE COAST BY DAYS END AND OVRALL SBSDNC WL GRADUALLY SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVR MOST OF THE UPR OH VALLEY AREA...ALTHOUGH
SLGT SHWR CHCS MAY LINGER INTO EVE OVR THE RIDGES WITH THE SHARPER
UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE.

COLD TEMPS WL LINGER THOUGH AS COLD...TO NEUTRAL ADVCTN CONTS ON
THE REAR FLANK OF THE EXITING LOW. TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES UNDR THE
AVGS WERE MASSAGED USING SREF MEANS AND BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHRTWV RIDGING IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS RMNG PCPN CHCS TNGT...AND
INTO FRIDAY.

THEREAFTER...NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF HAVE CONSISTENTLY DEPICTED THE
APCH...AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHRTWV IN NW FLOW ON FRIDAY. GIVEN
DEPICTIONS OF A LTD MID LVL MSTR FIELD...CAPPED LOW LVLS AFTR MID
LVL WARMING...AND AN ABSENT PCPN SPPRTG OMEGA FIELD...HAVE DECIDED
TO ELIMINATE THE ALREADY SLGT POP FORECAST IN FAVOR A STRENGTHENING
DRY TREND.

ANOTHER SUCH DISTURBANCE IS PROJECTED FOR A SATURDAY CROSSING...BUT
THE RAIN POTENTIAL LKS EQUALLY SLIM GIVEN SIMILIAR LIMITATIONS AS
FRIDAY AS WELL AS A MORE NWD TRACK OF THE LOW CNTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS FEATURE MODERATION TWD THE SEASONAL AVGS...FORECAST
FOR WAS TWEAKED AGAIN USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS AND SREF MEANS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NTO TNGT WITH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. DRY AIR SHOULD ALLIOW CLOUDS TO BREAK
UP FROM THE NORTH AND WEST AFT 04Z.  CLEARING AT ZZV MAY BE EARLY
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...WINDS MAY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY FG AT A MINIMUM
AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF ZZV TAF FOR NOW.

.AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

JSH/RLX









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221738
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
137 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...ALLOWING A HIGH TO
BUILD IN...RESULTING IN DRY AND WARM WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.  A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE NR TERM GRIDS BASED ON OBS AND RADAR FOR THE
PRE DAWN UPDT.

PREVIOUS DISC...MATURATION OF LOW PRES IS STILL MDL PROGGED OVR
THE COAST BY DAYS END AND OVRALL SBSDNC WL GRADUALLY SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVR MOST OF THE UPR OH VALLEY AREA...ALTHOUGH
SLGT SHWR CHCS MAY LINGER INTO EVE OVR THE RIDGES WITH THE SHARPER
UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE.

COLD TEMPS WL LINGER THOUGH AS COLD...TO NEUTRAL ADVCTN CONTS ON
THE REAR FLANK OF THE EXITING LOW. TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES UNDR THE
AVGS WERE MASSAGED USING SREF MEANS AND BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHRTWV RIDGING IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS RMNG PCPN CHCS TNGT...AND
INTO FRIDAY.

THEREAFTER...NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF HAVE CONSISTENTLY DEPICTED THE
APCH...AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHRTWV IN NW FLOW ON FRIDAY. GIVEN
DEPICTIONS OF A LTD MID LVL MSTR FIELD...CAPPED LOW LVLS AFTR MID
LVL WARMING...AND AN ABSENT PCPN SPPRTG OMEGA FIELD...HAVE DECIDED
TO ELIMINATE THE ALREADY SLGT POP FORECAST IN FAVOR A STRENGTHENING
DRY TREND.

ANOTHER SUCH DISTURBANCE IS PROJECTED FOR A SATURDAY CROSSING...BUT
THE RAIN POTENTIAL LKS EQUALLY SLIM GIVEN SIMILIAR LIMITATIONS AS
FRIDAY AS WELL AS A MORE NWD TRACK OF THE LOW CNTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS FEATURE MODERATION TWD THE SEASONAL AVGS...FORECAST
FOR WAS TWEAKED AGAIN USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS AND SREF MEANS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NTO TNGT WITH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. DRY AIR SHOULD ALLIOW CLOUDS TO BREAK
UP FROM THE NORTH AND WEST AFT 04Z.  CLEARING AT ZZV MAY BE EARLY
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...WINDS MAY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY FG AT A MINIMUM
AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF ZZV TAF FOR NOW.

.AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

JSH/RLX









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221055
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
655 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE
EXITS EASTWARD. A STRENGTHENING HIGH WILL DRY AND WARM THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE NR TERM GRIDS BASED ON OBS AND RADAR FOR THE
PRE DAWN UPDT.

PREVIOUS DISC...MATURATION OF LOW PRES IS STILL MDL PROGGED OVR
THE COAST BY DAYS END AND OVRALL SBSDNC WL GRADUALLY SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVR MOST OF THE UPR OH VALLEY AREA...ALTHOUGH
SLGT SHWR CHCS MAY LINGER INTO EVE OVR THE RIDGES WITH THE SHARPER
UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE.

COLD TEMPS WL LINGER THOUGH AS COLD...TO NEUTRAL ADVCTN CONTS ON
THE REAR FLANK OF THE EXITING LOW. TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES UNDR THE
AVGS WERE MASSAGED USING SREF MEANS AND BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHRTWV RIDGING IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS RMNG PCPN CHCS TNGT...AND
INTO FRIDAY.

THEREAFTER...NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF HAVE CONSISTENTLY DEPICTED THE
APCH...AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHRTWV IN NW FLOW ON FRIDAY. GIVEN
DEPICTIONS OF A LTD MID LVL MSTR FIELD...CAPPED LOW LVLS AFTR MID
LVL WARMING...AND AN ABSENT PCPN SPPRTG OMEGA FIELD...HAVE DECIDED
TO ELIMINATE THE ALREADY SLGT POP FORECAST IN FAVOR A STRENGTHENING
DRY TREND.

ANOTHER SUCH DISTURBANCE IS PROJECTED FOR A SATURDAY CROSSING...BUT
THE RAIN POTENTIAL LKS EQUALLY SLIM GIVEN SIMILIAR LIMITATIONS AS
FRIDAY AS WELL AS A MORE NWD TRACK OF THE LOW CNTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS FEATURE MODERATION TWD THE SEASONAL AVGS...FORECAST
FOR WAS TWEAKED AGAIN USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS AND SREF MEANS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WDSPRD MVFR CONDS ARE EXPD INTO TNGT WITH LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE
UNDER AN UPR LOW ACRS THE RGN. ENOUGH DRY AIR SHOULD MOVE IN THIS
EVE TO ALLOW SOME CLRG W AT ZZV...AND OVRNGT ACRS AREAS FM PIT W.
CLRG AT ZZV MAY BE ERLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FG TO DVLP
LT TNGT.

.AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE EXPD INTO THU MRNG BEFORE THE UPR LOW EXITS THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220725
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
325 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE
EXITS EASTWARD. A STRENGTHENING HIGH WILL DRY AND WARM THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MATURATION OF LOW PRES IS STILL MDL PROGGED OVR THE COAST BY DAYS
END AND OVRALL SBSDNC WL GRADUALLY SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
OVR MOST OF THE UPR OH VALLEY AREA...ALTHOUGH SLGT SHWR CHCS MAY
LINGER INTO EVE OVR THE RIDGES WITH THE SHARPER UPSLOPE
ASSISTANCE.

COLD TEMPS WL LINGER THOUGH AS COLD...TO NEUTRAL ADVCTN CONTS ON
THE REAR FLANK OF THE EXITING LOW. TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES UNDR THE
AVGS WERE MASSAGED USING SREF MEANS AND BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHRTWV RIDGING IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS RMNG PCPN CHCS TNGT...AND
INTO FRIDAY.

THEREAFTER...NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF HAVE CONSISTENTLY DEPICTED THE
APCH...AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHRTWV IN NW FLOW ON FRIDAY. GIVEN
DEPICTIONS OF A LTD MID LVL MSTR FIELD...CAPPED LOW LVLS AFTR MID
LVL WARMING...AND AN ABSENT PCPN SPPRTG OMEGA FIELD...HAVE DECIDED
TO ELIMINATE THE ALREADY SLGT POP FORECAST IN FAVOR A STRENGTHENING
DRY TREND.

ANOTHER SUCH DISTURBANCE IS PROJECTED FOR A SATURDAY CROSSING...BUT
THE RAIN POTENTIAL LKS EQUALLY SLIM GIVEN SIMILIAR LIMITATIONS AS
FRIDAY AS WELL AS A MORE NWD TRACK OF THE LOW CNTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS FEATURE MODERATION TWD THE SEASONAL AVGS...FORECAST
FOR WAS TWEAKED AGAIN USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS AND SREF MEANS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY
NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A
MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS
ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WDSPRD IFR CONDS AND SCT SHWRS ARE EXPD THRU ERLY THIS MRNG WITH
LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE UNDER AN UPR LOW ACRS THE RGN. WHILE CONDS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR LTR IN THE MRNG...THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPR
LOW WL KEEP MVFR CONDS INTO TNGT.

.AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE EXPD INTO THU MRNG BEFORE THE UPR LOW EXITS THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07






    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities