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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210726
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
326 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPR TROF AXIS OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY THIS MRNG WL
CONT TO DEEPEN AND CUTOFF TDA AS JET STREAK SLIDES OVR THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. NMRS TO WIDESPREAD SHWRS WL THUS RMN IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE DRY ADVCTN IN BNDRY LYR...WITH FOCUS OVR NRN AND
ERN ZONES AS FLOW WRAPS WITH THE DEEPENING LOW. IN GENL...FEW
CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR TDAS DAMP AND COOL PROGNOSIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD MID LVLS WL PERSIST OVR THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY DESPITE
THE LOW CNTR SHIFTING TWD THE COAST. DESPITE A CONSIDERABLE
REDUCTION IN POPS...SHWRS CHCS IN THE LOW THRESHOLD CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WERE MAINTAINED WITH EMPHASIS OVR THE UPSLOPE AREAS
ALNG THE I 80 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE RIDGES. THEREAFTER...WARMING
ALOFT/LOWERING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS ON
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SLGT TO CHC NMBRS WERE KEPT OVR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS.

TRAILING SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR A FRIDAY CROSSING OF THE REGION...BUT
SOME CLDS ARE ALL THAT IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE LACK A THERMAL TROF
ALOFT AS WELL AS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MSTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS WERE TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS TRENDS...BUT
LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SLOW MOVG UPR LOW ACRS THE GT LKS RGN WL MAINTAIN MVFR CONDS
AND PDS OF SHWRS ACRS AREA PORTS THRU TNGT. THE EXCEPTION WL BE
SOME OCNL IFR CIGS THAT ARE EXPD MAINLY FOR PORTS FM PIT NWD ERLY
THIS MRNG.

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL INTO THU WITH SLOW MOVG LOW PRES ACRS THE
MID ATLANTIC RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210726
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
326 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPR TROF AXIS OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY THIS MRNG WL
CONT TO DEEPEN AND CUTOFF TDA AS JET STREAK SLIDES OVR THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. NMRS TO WIDESPREAD SHWRS WL THUS RMN IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE DRY ADVCTN IN BNDRY LYR...WITH FOCUS OVR NRN AND
ERN ZONES AS FLOW WRAPS WITH THE DEEPENING LOW. IN GENL...FEW
CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR TDAS DAMP AND COOL PROGNOSIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD MID LVLS WL PERSIST OVR THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY DESPITE
THE LOW CNTR SHIFTING TWD THE COAST. DESPITE A CONSIDERABLE
REDUCTION IN POPS...SHWRS CHCS IN THE LOW THRESHOLD CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WERE MAINTAINED WITH EMPHASIS OVR THE UPSLOPE AREAS
ALNG THE I 80 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE RIDGES. THEREAFTER...WARMING
ALOFT/LOWERING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS ON
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SLGT TO CHC NMBRS WERE KEPT OVR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS.

TRAILING SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR A FRIDAY CROSSING OF THE REGION...BUT
SOME CLDS ARE ALL THAT IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE LACK A THERMAL TROF
ALOFT AS WELL AS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MSTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS WERE TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS TRENDS...BUT
LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BLDG RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL SHIFT E THRU ERLY NXT WK
KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXP TO PUSH
ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SLOW MOVG UPR LOW ACRS THE GT LKS RGN WL MAINTAIN MVFR CONDS
AND PDS OF SHWRS ACRS AREA PORTS THRU TNGT. THE EXCEPTION WL BE
SOME OCNL IFR CIGS THAT ARE EXPD MAINLY FOR PORTS FM PIT NWD ERLY
THIS MRNG.

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL INTO THU WITH SLOW MOVG LOW PRES ACRS THE
MID ATLANTIC RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210433
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1233 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

HIGH AMPLITUDE UPR TROF AXIS OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY THIS MRNG WL
CONT TO DEEPEN AND CUTOFF TDA AS JET STREAK SLIDES OVR THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. NMRS TO WIDESPREAD SHWRS WL THUS RMN IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE DRY ADVCTN IN BNDRY LYR...WITH FOCUS OVR NRN AND
ERN ZONES AS FLOW WRAPS WITH THE DEEPENING LOW. IN GENL...FEW
CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR TDAS DAMP AND COOL PROGNOSIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD MID LVLS WL PERSIST OVR THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY DESPITE
THE LOW CNTR SHIFTING TWD THE COAST. DESPITE A CONSIDERABLE
REDUCTION IN POPS...SHWRS CHCS IN THE LOW THRESHOLD CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WERE MAINTAINED WITH EMPHASIS OVR THE UPSLOPE AREAS
ALNG THE I 80 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE RIDGES. THEREAFTER...WARMING
ALOFT/LOWERING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS ON
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SLGT TO CHC NMBRS WERE KEPT OVR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS.

TRAILING SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR A FRIDAY CROSSING OF THE REGION...BUT
SOME CLDS ARE ALL THAT IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE LACK A THERMAL TROF
ALOFT AS WELL AS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MSTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS WERE TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS TRENDS...BUT
LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE MID-WEEK UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR THE
CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEEKEND.
TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM PD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SLOW MOVG UPR LOW ACRS THE GT LKS RGN WL MAINTAIN MVFR CONDS
AND PDS OF SHWRS ACRS AREA PORTS THRU TNGT. THE EXCEPTION WL BE
SOME OCNL IFR CIGS THAT ARE EXPD MAINLY FOR PORTS FM PIT NWD ERLY
THIS MRNG.

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL INTO THU WITH SLOW MOVG LOW PRES ACRS THE
MID ATLANTIC RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210433
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1233 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

HIGH AMPLITUDE UPR TROF AXIS OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY THIS MRNG WL
CONT TO DEEPEN AND CUTOFF TDA AS JET STREAK SLIDES OVR THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. NMRS TO WIDESPREAD SHWRS WL THUS RMN IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE DRY ADVCTN IN BNDRY LYR...WITH FOCUS OVR NRN AND
ERN ZONES AS FLOW WRAPS WITH THE DEEPENING LOW. IN GENL...FEW
CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR TDAS DAMP AND COOL PROGNOSIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD MID LVLS WL PERSIST OVR THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY DESPITE
THE LOW CNTR SHIFTING TWD THE COAST. DESPITE A CONSIDERABLE
REDUCTION IN POPS...SHWRS CHCS IN THE LOW THRESHOLD CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WERE MAINTAINED WITH EMPHASIS OVR THE UPSLOPE AREAS
ALNG THE I 80 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE RIDGES. THEREAFTER...WARMING
ALOFT/LOWERING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS ON
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SLGT TO CHC NMBRS WERE KEPT OVR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS.

TRAILING SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR A FRIDAY CROSSING OF THE REGION...BUT
SOME CLDS ARE ALL THAT IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE LACK A THERMAL TROF
ALOFT AS WELL AS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MSTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS WERE TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS TRENDS...BUT
LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE MID-WEEK UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR THE
CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEEKEND.
TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM PD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SLOW MOVG UPR LOW ACRS THE GT LKS RGN WL MAINTAIN MVFR CONDS
AND PDS OF SHWRS ACRS AREA PORTS THRU TNGT. THE EXCEPTION WL BE
SOME OCNL IFR CIGS THAT ARE EXPD MAINLY FOR PORTS FM PIT NWD ERLY
THIS MRNG.

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL INTO THU WITH SLOW MOVG LOW PRES ACRS THE
MID ATLANTIC RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210433
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1233 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

HIGH AMPLITUDE UPR TROF AXIS OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY THIS MRNG WL
CONT TO DEEPEN AND CUTOFF TDA AS JET STREAK SLIDES OVR THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. NMRS TO WIDESPREAD SHWRS WL THUS RMN IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE DRY ADVCTN IN BNDRY LYR...WITH FOCUS OVR NRN AND
ERN ZONES AS FLOW WRAPS WITH THE DEEPENING LOW. IN GENL...FEW
CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR TDAS DAMP AND COOL PROGNOSIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD MID LVLS WL PERSIST OVR THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY DESPITE
THE LOW CNTR SHIFTING TWD THE COAST. DESPITE A CONSIDERABLE
REDUCTION IN POPS...SHWRS CHCS IN THE LOW THRESHOLD CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WERE MAINTAINED WITH EMPHASIS OVR THE UPSLOPE AREAS
ALNG THE I 80 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE RIDGES. THEREAFTER...WARMING
ALOFT/LOWERING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS ON
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SLGT TO CHC NMBRS WERE KEPT OVR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS.

TRAILING SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR A FRIDAY CROSSING OF THE REGION...BUT
SOME CLDS ARE ALL THAT IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE LACK A THERMAL TROF
ALOFT AS WELL AS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MSTR.

SHORT TERM TEMPS WERE TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS TRENDS...BUT
LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE MID-WEEK UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR THE
CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEEKEND.
TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM PD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SLOW MOVG UPR LOW ACRS THE GT LKS RGN WL MAINTAIN MVFR CONDS
AND PDS OF SHWRS ACRS AREA PORTS THRU TNGT. THE EXCEPTION WL BE
SOME OCNL IFR CIGS THAT ARE EXPD MAINLY FOR PORTS FM PIT NWD ERLY
THIS MRNG.

.AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL INTO THU WITH SLOW MOVG LOW PRES ACRS THE
MID ATLANTIC RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210156
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
956 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAINY AND COOL THROUGH MID-WEEK WHEN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHIFTS EASTWARD. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE INTO SOUTHERN OHIO WITH LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CWA. LITTLE CHANGE TO POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH BACK EDGE
OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN ACROSS EASTERN OHIO. THIS WILL SHIFT EAST AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AS SHORTWAVE HEADS EAST. ENERGY DIGS INTO THE
BACKSIDE OF UPPER TROUGH WITH SYSTEM CLOSING OFF ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND SINKING SOUTH. AS THIS HAPPENS...ABUNDANT LLVL
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA KEEPING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST. AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY PASSES TUES...THE SFC-H8 LOW
CORE SHIFTS EAST BRINGING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LLVL WIND
FIELD. WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS IN FOR THE SE RIDGES AS A
RESULT. DRIEST LOCATION IN THE CWA TUES LOOKS TO BE OVER ERN OHIO
WHERE DRIER AIR ALOFT BEGINS FEEDING INTO THE UPPER LOW WHICH MAY
WORK TO SUPPRESS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE
MID-LEVEL COLD POOL BEGINS TO DEPART TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AMPLY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY...AND UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN LOW END CHANCES OF
SHOWERS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND FAIRLY GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS
IN THE RIDGES. AS SHEAR INCREASES AFTER THIS TIME...MID-LEVEL
RIDGING STARTS TO IMPINGE...AND DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR FINALLY
STARTS TO WORK INTO THE REGION...SHOWER CHANCES DWINDLE TO LESS
THAN MENTIONABLE BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK NOW LOOKS RATHER DRY...WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING TOWARD NORMAL AS SUNSHINE SHOULD FINALLY
MAKE A RETURN TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE MID-WEEK UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR THE
CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CLOSE TO
THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM
PD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR AT THE START...BUT FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
PASSES THROUGH. HAVE ALL SITES DROPPING TO MVFR...AND SEVERAL
SHOULD REACH IFR ON EITHER A PREVAILING OR TEMPORARY BASIS AFTER
06Z OR SO. THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER LOW ON TUESDAY WILL MAINTAIN
MVFR CIGS INTO AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE IMPROVMENT TO VFR
LATE IN THE TAFS BUT COULD EASILY SEE MVFR LINGER. LIGHT S/SW
WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO W BY 12Z AND EVEN TURN WNW BY AFTERNOON.

.AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW
DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210156
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
956 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAINY AND COOL THROUGH MID-WEEK WHEN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHIFTS EASTWARD. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE INTO SOUTHERN OHIO WITH LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CWA. LITTLE CHANGE TO POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH BACK EDGE
OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN ACROSS EASTERN OHIO. THIS WILL SHIFT EAST AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AS SHORTWAVE HEADS EAST. ENERGY DIGS INTO THE
BACKSIDE OF UPPER TROUGH WITH SYSTEM CLOSING OFF ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND SINKING SOUTH. AS THIS HAPPENS...ABUNDANT LLVL
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA KEEPING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST. AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY PASSES TUES...THE SFC-H8 LOW
CORE SHIFTS EAST BRINGING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LLVL WIND
FIELD. WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS IN FOR THE SE RIDGES AS A
RESULT. DRIEST LOCATION IN THE CWA TUES LOOKS TO BE OVER ERN OHIO
WHERE DRIER AIR ALOFT BEGINS FEEDING INTO THE UPPER LOW WHICH MAY
WORK TO SUPPRESS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE
MID-LEVEL COLD POOL BEGINS TO DEPART TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AMPLY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY...AND UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN LOW END CHANCES OF
SHOWERS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND FAIRLY GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS
IN THE RIDGES. AS SHEAR INCREASES AFTER THIS TIME...MID-LEVEL
RIDGING STARTS TO IMPINGE...AND DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR FINALLY
STARTS TO WORK INTO THE REGION...SHOWER CHANCES DWINDLE TO LESS
THAN MENTIONABLE BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK NOW LOOKS RATHER DRY...WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING TOWARD NORMAL AS SUNSHINE SHOULD FINALLY
MAKE A RETURN TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE MID-WEEK UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR THE
CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CLOSE TO
THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM
PD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR AT THE START...BUT FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
PASSES THROUGH. HAVE ALL SITES DROPPING TO MVFR...AND SEVERAL
SHOULD REACH IFR ON EITHER A PREVAILING OR TEMPORARY BASIS AFTER
06Z OR SO. THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER LOW ON TUESDAY WILL MAINTAIN
MVFR CIGS INTO AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE IMPROVMENT TO VFR
LATE IN THE TAFS BUT COULD EASILY SEE MVFR LINGER. LIGHT S/SW
WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO W BY 12Z AND EVEN TURN WNW BY AFTERNOON.

.AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW
DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210156
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
956 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAINY AND COOL THROUGH MID-WEEK WHEN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHIFTS EASTWARD. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE INTO SOUTHERN OHIO WITH LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CWA. LITTLE CHANGE TO POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH BACK EDGE
OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN ACROSS EASTERN OHIO. THIS WILL SHIFT EAST AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AS SHORTWAVE HEADS EAST. ENERGY DIGS INTO THE
BACKSIDE OF UPPER TROUGH WITH SYSTEM CLOSING OFF ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND SINKING SOUTH. AS THIS HAPPENS...ABUNDANT LLVL
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA KEEPING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST. AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY PASSES TUES...THE SFC-H8 LOW
CORE SHIFTS EAST BRINGING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LLVL WIND
FIELD. WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS IN FOR THE SE RIDGES AS A
RESULT. DRIEST LOCATION IN THE CWA TUES LOOKS TO BE OVER ERN OHIO
WHERE DRIER AIR ALOFT BEGINS FEEDING INTO THE UPPER LOW WHICH MAY
WORK TO SUPPRESS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE
MID-LEVEL COLD POOL BEGINS TO DEPART TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AMPLY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY...AND UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN LOW END CHANCES OF
SHOWERS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND FAIRLY GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS
IN THE RIDGES. AS SHEAR INCREASES AFTER THIS TIME...MID-LEVEL
RIDGING STARTS TO IMPINGE...AND DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR FINALLY
STARTS TO WORK INTO THE REGION...SHOWER CHANCES DWINDLE TO LESS
THAN MENTIONABLE BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK NOW LOOKS RATHER DRY...WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING TOWARD NORMAL AS SUNSHINE SHOULD FINALLY
MAKE A RETURN TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE MID-WEEK UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR THE
CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CLOSE TO
THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM
PD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR AT THE START...BUT FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
PASSES THROUGH. HAVE ALL SITES DROPPING TO MVFR...AND SEVERAL
SHOULD REACH IFR ON EITHER A PREVAILING OR TEMPORARY BASIS AFTER
06Z OR SO. THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER LOW ON TUESDAY WILL MAINTAIN
MVFR CIGS INTO AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE IMPROVMENT TO VFR
LATE IN THE TAFS BUT COULD EASILY SEE MVFR LINGER. LIGHT S/SW
WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO W BY 12Z AND EVEN TURN WNW BY AFTERNOON.

.AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW
DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 202329
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
729 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAINY AND COOL THROUGH MID-WEEK WHEN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHIFTS EASTWARD. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EARLY EVENING UPDATE TO ADD CAT POPS FARTHER SOUTH TONIGHT BASED
ON RADAR TRENDS SHOWING BANDS OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING WELL INTO SOUTHERN
OHIO. ALSO SPEED UP TIMING FOR SHOWERS INTO RIDGES EARLY TONIGHT.
MODEST QPF ADDED. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES OR WINDS. PREVIOUS
DISCO BELOW.


SW TROF AND ATTENDANT VORT MAX EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY CURRENTLY
SWINGING THROUGH ERN INDIANA SOUTH OF THE SFC NEARING LAKE HURON.
MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION PRODUCING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF TROF AXIS
OVER WV AND SW PA WILL PUSH EAST TONIGHT. THOSE CLOUDS WILL BE
REPLACED BY LOWER CLOUDS THIS EVENING KEEPING TEMPS MODERATED.

RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN QUITE NUMEROUS TODAY...BUT LITTLE MORE
THAN VIRGA HAS BEEN REPORTED UP TO THIS POINT AS DRY AIR FROM THE
MID LEVELS DOWN ARE KEEPING ANY RAIN SHOWERS FROM REACHING THE
GROUND. RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SW TROF ARE SHOWING UP
OVER WRN OHIO AND ARE TIMED TO REACH OUR WRN PERIPHERY BY ABOUT
21Z. BY 00Z ALL OF THE NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE THE SW TROF AXIS
THROUGH ERN OH WITH RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE
WNW. DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND BETTER FORCING WILL REMAIN
CLOSER TO THE LOW NEAR LAKE ERIE...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE
CATEGORICAL POPS THERE. ALTHOUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
BEGINS TO OUTRUN THE TROF AXIS ACROSS OUR SOUTH...ENOUGH MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS NRN WV. WILL NOT DEVIATE
FROM THE LIKELY POPS.

TONIGHT THE SFC LOW IS PULLED SOUTH AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES AS
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO CUT-OFF. AS THIS HAPPENS...ABUNDANT LLVL
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA KEEPING CLOUDS AND RAIN IN THE
FORECAST. AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY PASSES TUES...THE SFC-H8 LOW CORE
SHIFTS EAST BRINGING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LLVL WIND FIELD.
WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS IN FOR THE SE RIDGES AS A RESULT. DRIEST
LOCATION IN THE CWA TUES LOOKS TO BE OVER ERN OHIO WHERE DRIER AIR
ALOFT BEGINS FEEDING INTO THE UPPER LOW WHICH MAY WORK TO SUPPRESS
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE
MID-LEVEL COLD POOL BEGINS TO DEPART TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AMPLY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY...AND UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN LOW END CHANCES OF
SHOWERS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND FAIRLY GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS
IN THE RIDGES. AS SHEAR INCREASES AFTER THIS TIME...MID-LEVEL
RIDGING STARTS TO IMPINGE...AND DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR FINALLY
STARTS TO WORK INTO THE REGION...SHOWER CHANCES DWINDLE TO LESS
THAN MENTIONABLE BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK NOW LOOKS RATHER DRY...WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING TOWARD NORMAL AS SUNSHINE SHOULD FINALLY
MAKE A RETURN TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE MID-WEEK UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR THE
CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CLOSE TO
THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM
PD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR AT THE START...BUT FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
PASSES THROUGH. HAVE ALL SITES DROPPING TO MVFR...AND SEVERAL
SHOULD REACH IFR ON EITHER A PREVAILING OR TEMPORARY BASIS AFTER
06Z OR SO. THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER LOW ON TUESDAY WILL MAINTAIN
MVFR CIGS INTO AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE IMPROVMENT TO VFR
LATE IN THE TAFS BUT COULD EASILY SEE MVFR LINGER. LIGHT S/SW
WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO W BY 12Z AND EVEN TURN WNW BY AFTERNOON.

.AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW
DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 202217
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
617 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAINY AND COOL THROUGH MID-WEEK WHEN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHIFTS EASTWARD. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EARLY EVENING UPDATE TO ADD CAT POPS FARTHER SOUTH TONIGHT BASED
ON RADAR TRENDS SHOWING BANDS OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING WELL INTO SOUTHERN
OHIO. ALSO SPEED UP TIMING FOR SHOWERS INTO RIDGES EARLY TONIGHT.
MODEST QPF ADDED. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES OR WINDS. PREVIOUS
DISCO BELOW.


SW TROF AND ATTENDANT VORT MAX EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY CURRENTLY
SWINGING THROUGH ERN INDIANA SOUTH OF THE SFC NEARING LAKE HURON.
MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION PRODUCING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF TROF AXIS
OVER WV AND SW PA WILL PUSH EAST TONIGHT. THOSE CLOUDS WILL BE
REPLACED BY LOWER CLOUDS THIS EVENING KEEPING TEMPS MODERATED.

RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN QUITE NUMEROUS TODAY...BUT LITTLE MORE
THAN VIRGA HAS BEEN REPORTED UP TO THIS POINT AS DRY AIR FROM THE
MID LEVELS DOWN ARE KEEPING ANY RAIN SHOWERS FROM REACHING THE
GROUND. RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SW TROF ARE SHOWING UP
OVER WRN OHIO AND ARE TIMED TO REACH OUR WRN PERIPHERY BY ABOUT
21Z. BY 00Z ALL OF THE NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE THE SW TROF AXIS
THROUGH ERN OH WITH RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE
WNW. DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND BETTER FORCING WILL REMAIN
CLOSER TO THE LOW NEAR LAKE ERIE...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE
CATEGORICAL POPS THERE. ALTHOUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
BEGINS TO OUTRUN THE TROF AXIS ACROSS OUR SOUTH...ENOUGH MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS NRN WV. WILL NOT DEVIATE
FROM THE LIKELY POPS.

TONIGHT THE SFC LOW IS PULLED SOUTH AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES AS
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO CUT-OFF. AS THIS HAPPENS...ABUNDANT LLVL
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA KEEPING CLOUDS AND RAIN IN THE
FORECAST. AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY PASSES TUES...THE SFC-H8 LOW CORE
SHIFTS EAST BRINGING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LLVL WIND FIELD.
WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS IN FOR THE SE RIDGES AS A RESULT. DRIEST
LOCATION IN THE CWA TUES LOOKS TO BE OVER ERN OHIO WHERE DRIER AIR
ALOFT BEGINS FEEDING INTO THE UPPER LOW WHICH MAY WORK TO SUPPRESS
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE
MID-LEVEL COLD POOL BEGINS TO DEPART TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AMPLY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY...AND UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN LOW END CHANCES OF
SHOWERS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND FAIRLY GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS
IN THE RIDGES. AS SHEAR INCREASES AFTER THIS TIME...MID-LEVEL
RIDGING STARTS TO IMPINGE...AND DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR FINALLY
STARTS TO WORK INTO THE REGION...SHOWER CHANCES DWINDLE TO LESS
THAN MENTIONABLE BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK NOW LOOKS RATHER DRY...WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING TOWARD NORMAL AS SUNSHINE SHOULD FINALLY
MAKE A RETURN TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE MID-WEEK UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR THE
CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CLOSE TO
THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM
PD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLDFRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS
AND DRIFTS SOUTH TUES LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER.
MVFR CIGS MUCH OF TUES...BUT COULD SEE IFR IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS
THAT PERSIST.

.AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW
DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 202217
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
617 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAINY AND COOL THROUGH MID-WEEK WHEN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHIFTS EASTWARD. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EARLY EVENING UPDATE TO ADD CAT POPS FARTHER SOUTH TONIGHT BASED
ON RADAR TRENDS SHOWING BANDS OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING WELL INTO SOUTHERN
OHIO. ALSO SPEED UP TIMING FOR SHOWERS INTO RIDGES EARLY TONIGHT.
MODEST QPF ADDED. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES OR WINDS. PREVIOUS
DISCO BELOW.


SW TROF AND ATTENDANT VORT MAX EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY CURRENTLY
SWINGING THROUGH ERN INDIANA SOUTH OF THE SFC NEARING LAKE HURON.
MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION PRODUCING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF TROF AXIS
OVER WV AND SW PA WILL PUSH EAST TONIGHT. THOSE CLOUDS WILL BE
REPLACED BY LOWER CLOUDS THIS EVENING KEEPING TEMPS MODERATED.

RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN QUITE NUMEROUS TODAY...BUT LITTLE MORE
THAN VIRGA HAS BEEN REPORTED UP TO THIS POINT AS DRY AIR FROM THE
MID LEVELS DOWN ARE KEEPING ANY RAIN SHOWERS FROM REACHING THE
GROUND. RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SW TROF ARE SHOWING UP
OVER WRN OHIO AND ARE TIMED TO REACH OUR WRN PERIPHERY BY ABOUT
21Z. BY 00Z ALL OF THE NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE THE SW TROF AXIS
THROUGH ERN OH WITH RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE
WNW. DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND BETTER FORCING WILL REMAIN
CLOSER TO THE LOW NEAR LAKE ERIE...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE
CATEGORICAL POPS THERE. ALTHOUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
BEGINS TO OUTRUN THE TROF AXIS ACROSS OUR SOUTH...ENOUGH MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS NRN WV. WILL NOT DEVIATE
FROM THE LIKELY POPS.

TONIGHT THE SFC LOW IS PULLED SOUTH AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES AS
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO CUT-OFF. AS THIS HAPPENS...ABUNDANT LLVL
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA KEEPING CLOUDS AND RAIN IN THE
FORECAST. AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY PASSES TUES...THE SFC-H8 LOW CORE
SHIFTS EAST BRINGING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LLVL WIND FIELD.
WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS IN FOR THE SE RIDGES AS A RESULT. DRIEST
LOCATION IN THE CWA TUES LOOKS TO BE OVER ERN OHIO WHERE DRIER AIR
ALOFT BEGINS FEEDING INTO THE UPPER LOW WHICH MAY WORK TO SUPPRESS
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE
MID-LEVEL COLD POOL BEGINS TO DEPART TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AMPLY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY...AND UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN LOW END CHANCES OF
SHOWERS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND FAIRLY GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS
IN THE RIDGES. AS SHEAR INCREASES AFTER THIS TIME...MID-LEVEL
RIDGING STARTS TO IMPINGE...AND DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR FINALLY
STARTS TO WORK INTO THE REGION...SHOWER CHANCES DWINDLE TO LESS
THAN MENTIONABLE BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK NOW LOOKS RATHER DRY...WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING TOWARD NORMAL AS SUNSHINE SHOULD FINALLY
MAKE A RETURN TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE MID-WEEK UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR THE
CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CLOSE TO
THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM
PD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLDFRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS
AND DRIFTS SOUTH TUES LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER.
MVFR CIGS MUCH OF TUES...BUT COULD SEE IFR IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS
THAT PERSIST.

.AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW
DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 202217
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
617 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAINY AND COOL THROUGH MID-WEEK WHEN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHIFTS EASTWARD. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EARLY EVENING UPDATE TO ADD CAT POPS FARTHER SOUTH TONIGHT BASED
ON RADAR TRENDS SHOWING BANDS OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING WELL INTO SOUTHERN
OHIO. ALSO SPEED UP TIMING FOR SHOWERS INTO RIDGES EARLY TONIGHT.
MODEST QPF ADDED. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES OR WINDS. PREVIOUS
DISCO BELOW.


SW TROF AND ATTENDANT VORT MAX EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY CURRENTLY
SWINGING THROUGH ERN INDIANA SOUTH OF THE SFC NEARING LAKE HURON.
MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION PRODUCING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF TROF AXIS
OVER WV AND SW PA WILL PUSH EAST TONIGHT. THOSE CLOUDS WILL BE
REPLACED BY LOWER CLOUDS THIS EVENING KEEPING TEMPS MODERATED.

RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN QUITE NUMEROUS TODAY...BUT LITTLE MORE
THAN VIRGA HAS BEEN REPORTED UP TO THIS POINT AS DRY AIR FROM THE
MID LEVELS DOWN ARE KEEPING ANY RAIN SHOWERS FROM REACHING THE
GROUND. RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SW TROF ARE SHOWING UP
OVER WRN OHIO AND ARE TIMED TO REACH OUR WRN PERIPHERY BY ABOUT
21Z. BY 00Z ALL OF THE NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE THE SW TROF AXIS
THROUGH ERN OH WITH RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE
WNW. DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND BETTER FORCING WILL REMAIN
CLOSER TO THE LOW NEAR LAKE ERIE...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE
CATEGORICAL POPS THERE. ALTHOUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
BEGINS TO OUTRUN THE TROF AXIS ACROSS OUR SOUTH...ENOUGH MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS NRN WV. WILL NOT DEVIATE
FROM THE LIKELY POPS.

TONIGHT THE SFC LOW IS PULLED SOUTH AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES AS
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO CUT-OFF. AS THIS HAPPENS...ABUNDANT LLVL
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA KEEPING CLOUDS AND RAIN IN THE
FORECAST. AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY PASSES TUES...THE SFC-H8 LOW CORE
SHIFTS EAST BRINGING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LLVL WIND FIELD.
WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS IN FOR THE SE RIDGES AS A RESULT. DRIEST
LOCATION IN THE CWA TUES LOOKS TO BE OVER ERN OHIO WHERE DRIER AIR
ALOFT BEGINS FEEDING INTO THE UPPER LOW WHICH MAY WORK TO SUPPRESS
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE
MID-LEVEL COLD POOL BEGINS TO DEPART TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AMPLY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY...AND UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN LOW END CHANCES OF
SHOWERS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND FAIRLY GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS
IN THE RIDGES. AS SHEAR INCREASES AFTER THIS TIME...MID-LEVEL
RIDGING STARTS TO IMPINGE...AND DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR FINALLY
STARTS TO WORK INTO THE REGION...SHOWER CHANCES DWINDLE TO LESS
THAN MENTIONABLE BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK NOW LOOKS RATHER DRY...WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING TOWARD NORMAL AS SUNSHINE SHOULD FINALLY
MAKE A RETURN TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE MID-WEEK UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR THE
CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CLOSE TO
THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM
PD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLDFRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS
AND DRIFTS SOUTH TUES LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER.
MVFR CIGS MUCH OF TUES...BUT COULD SEE IFR IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS
THAT PERSIST.

.AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW
DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 202217
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
617 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAINY AND COOL THROUGH MID-WEEK WHEN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHIFTS EASTWARD. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EARLY EVENING UPDATE TO ADD CAT POPS FARTHER SOUTH TONIGHT BASED
ON RADAR TRENDS SHOWING BANDS OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING WELL INTO SOUTHERN
OHIO. ALSO SPEED UP TIMING FOR SHOWERS INTO RIDGES EARLY TONIGHT.
MODEST QPF ADDED. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES OR WINDS. PREVIOUS
DISCO BELOW.


SW TROF AND ATTENDANT VORT MAX EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY CURRENTLY
SWINGING THROUGH ERN INDIANA SOUTH OF THE SFC NEARING LAKE HURON.
MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION PRODUCING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF TROF AXIS
OVER WV AND SW PA WILL PUSH EAST TONIGHT. THOSE CLOUDS WILL BE
REPLACED BY LOWER CLOUDS THIS EVENING KEEPING TEMPS MODERATED.

RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN QUITE NUMEROUS TODAY...BUT LITTLE MORE
THAN VIRGA HAS BEEN REPORTED UP TO THIS POINT AS DRY AIR FROM THE
MID LEVELS DOWN ARE KEEPING ANY RAIN SHOWERS FROM REACHING THE
GROUND. RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SW TROF ARE SHOWING UP
OVER WRN OHIO AND ARE TIMED TO REACH OUR WRN PERIPHERY BY ABOUT
21Z. BY 00Z ALL OF THE NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE THE SW TROF AXIS
THROUGH ERN OH WITH RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE
WNW. DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND BETTER FORCING WILL REMAIN
CLOSER TO THE LOW NEAR LAKE ERIE...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE
CATEGORICAL POPS THERE. ALTHOUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
BEGINS TO OUTRUN THE TROF AXIS ACROSS OUR SOUTH...ENOUGH MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS NRN WV. WILL NOT DEVIATE
FROM THE LIKELY POPS.

TONIGHT THE SFC LOW IS PULLED SOUTH AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES AS
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO CUT-OFF. AS THIS HAPPENS...ABUNDANT LLVL
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA KEEPING CLOUDS AND RAIN IN THE
FORECAST. AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY PASSES TUES...THE SFC-H8 LOW CORE
SHIFTS EAST BRINGING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LLVL WIND FIELD.
WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS IN FOR THE SE RIDGES AS A RESULT. DRIEST
LOCATION IN THE CWA TUES LOOKS TO BE OVER ERN OHIO WHERE DRIER AIR
ALOFT BEGINS FEEDING INTO THE UPPER LOW WHICH MAY WORK TO SUPPRESS
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE
MID-LEVEL COLD POOL BEGINS TO DEPART TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AMPLY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY...AND UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN LOW END CHANCES OF
SHOWERS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND FAIRLY GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS
IN THE RIDGES. AS SHEAR INCREASES AFTER THIS TIME...MID-LEVEL
RIDGING STARTS TO IMPINGE...AND DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR FINALLY
STARTS TO WORK INTO THE REGION...SHOWER CHANCES DWINDLE TO LESS
THAN MENTIONABLE BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK NOW LOOKS RATHER DRY...WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING TOWARD NORMAL AS SUNSHINE SHOULD FINALLY
MAKE A RETURN TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE MID-WEEK UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR THE
CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CLOSE TO
THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM
PD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLDFRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS
AND DRIFTS SOUTH TUES LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER.
MVFR CIGS MUCH OF TUES...BUT COULD SEE IFR IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS
THAT PERSIST.

.AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW
DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201833
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
233 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAINY AND COOL THROUGH MID-WEEK WHEN THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SW TROF AND ATTENDANT VORT MAX EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY CURRENTLY
SWINGING THROUGH ERN INDIANA SOUTH OF THE SFC NEARING LAKE HURON.
MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION PRODUCING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF TROF AXIS
OVER WV AND SW PA WILL PUSH EAST TONIGHT. THOSE CLOUDS WILL BE
REPLACED BY LOWER CLOUDS THIS EVENING KEEPING TEMPS MODERATED.

RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN QUITE NUMEROUS TODAY...BUT LITTLE MORE
THAN VIRGA HAS BEEN REPORTED UP TO THIS POINT AS DRY AIR FROM THE
MID LEVELS DOWN ARE KEEPING ANY RAIN SHOWERS FROM REACHING THE
GROUND. RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SW TROF ARE SHOWING UP
OVER WRN OHIO AND ARE TIMED TO REACH OUR WRN PERIPHERY BY ABOUT
21Z. BY 00Z ALL OF THE NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE THE SW TROF AXIS
THROUGH ERN OH WITH RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE
WNW. DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND BETTER FORCING WILL REMAIN
CLOSER TO THE LOW NEAR LAKE ERIE...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE
CATEGORICAL POPS THERE. ALTHOUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
BEGINS TO OUTRUN THE TROF AXIS ACROSS OUR SOUTH...ENOUGH MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS NRN WV. WILL NOT DEVIATE
FROM THE LIKELY POPS.

TONIGHT THE SFC LOW IS PULLED SOUTH AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES AS
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO CUT-OFF. AS THIS HAPPENS...ABUNDANT LLVL
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA KEEPING CLOUDS AND RAIN IN THE
FORECAST. AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY PASSES TUES...THE SFC-H8 LOW CORE
SHIFTS EAST BRINGING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LLVL WIND FIELD.
WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS IN FOR THE SE RIDGES AS A RESULT. DRIEST
LOCATION IN THE CWA TUES LOOKS TO BE OVER ERN OHIO WHERE DRIER AIR
ALOFT BEGINS FEEDING INTO THE UPPER LOW WHICH MAY WORK TO SUPPRESS
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE
MID-LEVEL COLD POOL BEGINS TO DEPART TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AMPLY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY...AND UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN LOW END CHANCES OF
SHOWERS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND FAIRLY GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS
IN THE RIDGES. AS SHEAR INCREASES AFTER THIS TIME...MID-LEVEL
RIDGING STARTS TO IMPINGE...AND DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR FINALLY
STARTS TO WORK INTO THE REGION...SHOWER CHANCES DWINDLE TO LESS
THAN MENTIONABLE BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK NOW LOOKS RATHER DRY...WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING TOWARD NORMAL AS SUNSHINE SHOULD FINALLY
MAKE A RETURN TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. FRIES


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE MID-WEEK UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR THE
CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CLOSE TO
THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM
PD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLDFRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS
AND DRIFTS SOUTH TUES LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER.
MVFR CIGS MUCH OF TUES...BUT COULD SEE IFR IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS
THAT PERSIST.

.AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW
DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201828
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
228 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAINY AND COOL THROUGH MID-WEEK WHEN THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS
EASTWARD. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SW TROF AND ATTENDANT VORT MAX EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY CURRENTLY
SWINGING THROUGH ERN INDIANA SOUTH OF THE SFC NEARING LAKE HURON.
MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION PRODUCING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF TROF AXIS
OVER WV AND SW PA WILL PUSH EAST TONIGHT. THOSE CLOUDS WILL BE
REPLACED BY LOWER CLOUDS THIS EVENING KEEPING TEMPS MODERATED.

RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN QUITE NUMEROUS TODAY...BUT LITTLE MORE
THAN VIRGA HAS BEEN REPORTED UP TO THIS POINT AS DRY AIR FROM THE
MID LEVELS DOWN ARE KEEPING ANY RAIN SHOWERS FROM REACHING THE
GROUND. RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SW TROF ARE SHOWING UP
OVER WRN OHIO AND ARE TIMED TO REACH OUR WRN PERIPHERY BY ABOUT
21Z. BY 00Z ALL OF THE NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE THE SW TROF AXIS
THROUGH ERN OH WITH RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE
WNW. DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND BETTER FORCING WILL REMAIN
CLOSER TO THE LOW NEAR LAKE ERIE...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE
CATEGORICAL POPS THERE. ALTHOUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
BEGINS TO OUTRUN THE TROF AXIS ACROSS OUR SOUTH...ENOUGH MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS NRN WV. WILL NOT DEVIATE
FROM THE LIKELY POPS.

TONIGHT THE SFC LOW IS PULLED SOUTH AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES AS
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO CUT-OFF. AS THIS HAPPENS...ABUNDANT LLVL
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA KEEPING CLOUDS AND RAIN IN THE
FORECAST. AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY PASSES TUES...THE SFC-H8 LOW CORE
SHIFTS EAST BRINGING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LLVL WIND FIELD.
WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS IN FOR THE SE RIDGES AS A RESULT. DRIEST
LOCATION IN THE CWA TUES LOOKS TO BE OVER ERN OHIO WHERE DRIER AIR
ALOFT BEGINS FEEDING INTO THE UPPER LOW WHICH MAY WORK TO SUPPRESS
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A JET STREAK MOVG THROUGH THE WRN FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFT UPR TROF
IS PROGGED TO CARVE A CUTOFF LOW OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION BY
LATE TUESDAY. COOLING MID LVLS WITH THAT SYSTEM WL LOWER CONVECTIVE
THRESHOLDS AND SPPRT SHWR ACTIVITY THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH PARTICULAR
EMPHASIS OVR UPSLOPE REGIONS TO THE N AND E OF PITTSBURGH.

BY THURSDAY...MDL WORLD PROJECTS SUFFICIENT COASTAL DVLPMNT/DEEPENING
TO DIMINISH POPS OVR THE IMMEDIATE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SHRTWV/VORT
PROJECTIONS THROUGH THE WRN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM IS MINIMAL...SO
HAVE MAINTAINED AT LEAST SLGT POPS OVR THE RIDGES THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR
THE CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CLOSE
TO THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM
PD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLDFRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS
AND DRIFTS SOUTH TUES LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER.
MVFR CIGS MUCH OF TUES...BUT COULD SEE IFR IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS
THAT PERSIST.

.AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW
DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201828
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
228 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAINY AND COOL THROUGH MID-WEEK WHEN THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS
EASTWARD. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SW TROF AND ATTENDANT VORT MAX EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY CURRENTLY
SWINGING THROUGH ERN INDIANA SOUTH OF THE SFC NEARING LAKE HURON.
MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION PRODUCING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF TROF AXIS
OVER WV AND SW PA WILL PUSH EAST TONIGHT. THOSE CLOUDS WILL BE
REPLACED BY LOWER CLOUDS THIS EVENING KEEPING TEMPS MODERATED.

RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN QUITE NUMEROUS TODAY...BUT LITTLE MORE
THAN VIRGA HAS BEEN REPORTED UP TO THIS POINT AS DRY AIR FROM THE
MID LEVELS DOWN ARE KEEPING ANY RAIN SHOWERS FROM REACHING THE
GROUND. RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SW TROF ARE SHOWING UP
OVER WRN OHIO AND ARE TIMED TO REACH OUR WRN PERIPHERY BY ABOUT
21Z. BY 00Z ALL OF THE NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE THE SW TROF AXIS
THROUGH ERN OH WITH RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE
WNW. DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND BETTER FORCING WILL REMAIN
CLOSER TO THE LOW NEAR LAKE ERIE...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE
CATEGORICAL POPS THERE. ALTHOUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
BEGINS TO OUTRUN THE TROF AXIS ACROSS OUR SOUTH...ENOUGH MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS NRN WV. WILL NOT DEVIATE
FROM THE LIKELY POPS.

TONIGHT THE SFC LOW IS PULLED SOUTH AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES AS
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO CUT-OFF. AS THIS HAPPENS...ABUNDANT LLVL
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA KEEPING CLOUDS AND RAIN IN THE
FORECAST. AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY PASSES TUES...THE SFC-H8 LOW CORE
SHIFTS EAST BRINGING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LLVL WIND FIELD.
WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS IN FOR THE SE RIDGES AS A RESULT. DRIEST
LOCATION IN THE CWA TUES LOOKS TO BE OVER ERN OHIO WHERE DRIER AIR
ALOFT BEGINS FEEDING INTO THE UPPER LOW WHICH MAY WORK TO SUPPRESS
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A JET STREAK MOVG THROUGH THE WRN FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFT UPR TROF
IS PROGGED TO CARVE A CUTOFF LOW OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION BY
LATE TUESDAY. COOLING MID LVLS WITH THAT SYSTEM WL LOWER CONVECTIVE
THRESHOLDS AND SPPRT SHWR ACTIVITY THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH PARTICULAR
EMPHASIS OVR UPSLOPE REGIONS TO THE N AND E OF PITTSBURGH.

BY THURSDAY...MDL WORLD PROJECTS SUFFICIENT COASTAL DVLPMNT/DEEPENING
TO DIMINISH POPS OVR THE IMMEDIATE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SHRTWV/VORT
PROJECTIONS THROUGH THE WRN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM IS MINIMAL...SO
HAVE MAINTAINED AT LEAST SLGT POPS OVR THE RIDGES THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR
THE CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CLOSE
TO THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM
PD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLDFRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS
AND DRIFTS SOUTH TUES LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER.
MVFR CIGS MUCH OF TUES...BUT COULD SEE IFR IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS
THAT PERSIST.

.AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW
DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201459
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1059 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES WILL RESUME AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SW TROF EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY CURRENTLY SWINGING AROUND THE SRN
END OF LAKE MI SOUTH OF THE SFC NEARING LAKE HURON. MID-LEVEL
DEFORMATION PRODUCING ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF TROF
AXIS. THESE CLOUDS...REPLACED BY LOWER CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WILL KEEP TEMPS RELEGATED INTO THE 50S WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF
SEEING SUNSHINE.

RADAR RETURNS ARE QUITE NUMEROUS AT THIS HOUR...BUT ITS TRACKING
LITTLE MORE THAN VIRGA AS DRY AIR FROM THE MID LEVELS DOWN ARE
KEEPING ANY RAIN SHOWERS FROM REACHING THE GROUND. AN AXIS OF
LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY MOVING INTO WV WILL
PUSH ENE THROUGH THE RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE MID-
LEVEL DEFORMATION...BUT WITH CURRENT DEW POINT SPREADS UP TO
12F...SATURATION OF THE LOW LEVELS WILL TAKE SOME TIME.

BY 00Z ALL OF THE NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE THE SW TROF AXIS THROUGH
ERN OH WITH RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE WNW.
DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND BETTER FORCING WILL REMAIN CLOSER
TO THE LOW NEAR LAKE ERIE...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE CATEGORICAL
POPS THERE. ALTHOUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
OUTRUN THE TROF AXIS ACROSS OUR SOUTH...ENOUGH MOISTURE IS
AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS NRN WV. WILL NOT DEVIATE FROM
THE LIKELY POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A JET STREAK MOVG THROUGH THE WRN FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFT UPR TROF
IS PROGGED TO CARVE A CUTOFF LOW OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION BY
LATE TUESDAY. COOLING MID LVLS WITH THAT SYSTEM WL LOWER CONVECTIVE
THRESHOLDS AND SPPRT SHWR ACTIVITY THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH PARTICULAR
EMPHASIS OVR UPSLOPE REGIONS TO THE N AND E OF PITTSBURGH.

BY THURSDAY...MDL WORLD PROJECTS SUFFICIENT COASTAL DVLPMNT/DEEPENING
TO DIMINISH POPS OVR THE IMMEDIATE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SHRTWV/VORT
PROJECTIONS THROUGH THE WRN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM IS MINIMAL...SO
HAVE MAINTAINED AT LEAST SLGT POPS OVR THE RIDGES THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR
THE CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CLOSE
TO THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM
PD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPD WITH INCRG AC THRU THIS AFTN AHD OF AN APCHG
SHRTWV. THIS SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS EXPD TO BRING MVFR
CONDS AND INCRG SHWR CHCS THIS EVE AND OVRNGT. FKL/DUJ COULD ALSO
SEE IFR CIGS LT TNGT AS LLVL MOISTURE POOLS.

.AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL THRU MID WK AS AN UPR LOW DRIFTS ACRS THE
RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201459
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1059 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES WILL RESUME AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SW TROF EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY CURRENTLY SWINGING AROUND THE SRN
END OF LAKE MI SOUTH OF THE SFC NEARING LAKE HURON. MID-LEVEL
DEFORMATION PRODUCING ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF TROF
AXIS. THESE CLOUDS...REPLACED BY LOWER CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WILL KEEP TEMPS RELEGATED INTO THE 50S WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF
SEEING SUNSHINE.

RADAR RETURNS ARE QUITE NUMEROUS AT THIS HOUR...BUT ITS TRACKING
LITTLE MORE THAN VIRGA AS DRY AIR FROM THE MID LEVELS DOWN ARE
KEEPING ANY RAIN SHOWERS FROM REACHING THE GROUND. AN AXIS OF
LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY MOVING INTO WV WILL
PUSH ENE THROUGH THE RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE MID-
LEVEL DEFORMATION...BUT WITH CURRENT DEW POINT SPREADS UP TO
12F...SATURATION OF THE LOW LEVELS WILL TAKE SOME TIME.

BY 00Z ALL OF THE NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE THE SW TROF AXIS THROUGH
ERN OH WITH RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE WNW.
DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND BETTER FORCING WILL REMAIN CLOSER
TO THE LOW NEAR LAKE ERIE...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE CATEGORICAL
POPS THERE. ALTHOUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
OUTRUN THE TROF AXIS ACROSS OUR SOUTH...ENOUGH MOISTURE IS
AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS NRN WV. WILL NOT DEVIATE FROM
THE LIKELY POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A JET STREAK MOVG THROUGH THE WRN FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFT UPR TROF
IS PROGGED TO CARVE A CUTOFF LOW OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION BY
LATE TUESDAY. COOLING MID LVLS WITH THAT SYSTEM WL LOWER CONVECTIVE
THRESHOLDS AND SPPRT SHWR ACTIVITY THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH PARTICULAR
EMPHASIS OVR UPSLOPE REGIONS TO THE N AND E OF PITTSBURGH.

BY THURSDAY...MDL WORLD PROJECTS SUFFICIENT COASTAL DVLPMNT/DEEPENING
TO DIMINISH POPS OVR THE IMMEDIATE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SHRTWV/VORT
PROJECTIONS THROUGH THE WRN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM IS MINIMAL...SO
HAVE MAINTAINED AT LEAST SLGT POPS OVR THE RIDGES THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR
THE CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CLOSE
TO THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM
PD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPD WITH INCRG AC THRU THIS AFTN AHD OF AN APCHG
SHRTWV. THIS SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS EXPD TO BRING MVFR
CONDS AND INCRG SHWR CHCS THIS EVE AND OVRNGT. FKL/DUJ COULD ALSO
SEE IFR CIGS LT TNGT AS LLVL MOISTURE POOLS.

.AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL THRU MID WK AS AN UPR LOW DRIFTS ACRS THE
RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201026
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
626 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES WILL RESUME AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TWEAKED ERLY MRNG HRLY GRIDS BASED ON LATEST OBS/TRENDS FOR THE
PREDAWN UPDT.

PREVIOUS DISC...WARM ADVCTN AND THICKENING CLD COVER WL PRECLUDE
MUCH MORE OF A TEMP DROP THIS MRNG...WITH MANY READINGS FM ALNG
AND N OF I 70 RISING. THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THE CNTIES
SURROUNDING MORGANTOWN WAS THUS DROPPED EARLY AS WIDESPREAD FROST
IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH EXTENSIVE CIRROSTRATUS SHIELD/ENCROACHING
ALTOSTRATUS AND GENL TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S IN THE ADVISORY AREA
EXPECTED TO BEGIN RISING BEFORE SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...THE APCHG SHRTWV THAT IS SPEWING UPR AND MID LVL CLDINESS
OVR THE REGION...IS STILL EXPECTED TO GENERATE SHWRS OVR BY EVE.
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR LGT PCPN HAVE BEEN CONTINUED...BUT
OVRALL NMBRS WERE TEMPERED AND TIMING FURTHER ADJUSTED FOR A
LATER START GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE DRY LYR ON THE EVE SNDING AS
WELL AS THE LATEST MDL TRENDS.

MRNG TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING HRLY LAMP GUIDANCE AND RAP NMBRS...WHILE
COOL DAYTIME HIGHS WERE TWEAKED USING GFS MOSGUIDE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A JET STREAK MOVG THROUGH THE WRN FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFT UPR TROF
IS PROGGED TO CARVE A CUTOFF LOW OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION BY
LATE TUESDAY. COOLING MID LVLS WITH THAT SYSTEM WL LOWER CONVECTIVE
THRESHOLDS AND SPPRT SHWR ACTIVITY THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH PARTICULAR
EMPHASIS OVR UPSLOPE REGIONS TO THE N AND E OF PITTSBURGH.

BY THURSDAY...MDL WORLD PROJECTS SUFFICIENT COASTAL DVLPMNT/DEEPENING
TO DIMINISH POPS OVR THE IMMEDIATE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SHRTWV/VORT
PROJECTIONS THROUGH THE WRN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM IS MINIMAL...SO
HAVE MAINTAINED AT LEAST SLGT POPS OVR THE RIDGES THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR
THE CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CLOSE
TO THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM
PD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPD WITH INCRG AC THRU THIS AFTN AHD OF AN APCHG
SHRTWV. THIS SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS EXPD TO BRING MVFR
CONDS AND INCRG SHWR CHCS THIS EVE AND OVRNGT. FKL/DUJ COULD ALSO
SEE IFR CIGS LT TNGT AS LLVL MOISTURE POOLS.

.AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL THRU MID WK AS AN UPR LOW DRIFTS ACRS THE
RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201026
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
626 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES WILL RESUME AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TWEAKED ERLY MRNG HRLY GRIDS BASED ON LATEST OBS/TRENDS FOR THE
PREDAWN UPDT.

PREVIOUS DISC...WARM ADVCTN AND THICKENING CLD COVER WL PRECLUDE
MUCH MORE OF A TEMP DROP THIS MRNG...WITH MANY READINGS FM ALNG
AND N OF I 70 RISING. THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THE CNTIES
SURROUNDING MORGANTOWN WAS THUS DROPPED EARLY AS WIDESPREAD FROST
IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH EXTENSIVE CIRROSTRATUS SHIELD/ENCROACHING
ALTOSTRATUS AND GENL TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S IN THE ADVISORY AREA
EXPECTED TO BEGIN RISING BEFORE SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...THE APCHG SHRTWV THAT IS SPEWING UPR AND MID LVL CLDINESS
OVR THE REGION...IS STILL EXPECTED TO GENERATE SHWRS OVR BY EVE.
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR LGT PCPN HAVE BEEN CONTINUED...BUT
OVRALL NMBRS WERE TEMPERED AND TIMING FURTHER ADJUSTED FOR A
LATER START GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE DRY LYR ON THE EVE SNDING AS
WELL AS THE LATEST MDL TRENDS.

MRNG TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING HRLY LAMP GUIDANCE AND RAP NMBRS...WHILE
COOL DAYTIME HIGHS WERE TWEAKED USING GFS MOSGUIDE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A JET STREAK MOVG THROUGH THE WRN FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFT UPR TROF
IS PROGGED TO CARVE A CUTOFF LOW OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION BY
LATE TUESDAY. COOLING MID LVLS WITH THAT SYSTEM WL LOWER CONVECTIVE
THRESHOLDS AND SPPRT SHWR ACTIVITY THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH PARTICULAR
EMPHASIS OVR UPSLOPE REGIONS TO THE N AND E OF PITTSBURGH.

BY THURSDAY...MDL WORLD PROJECTS SUFFICIENT COASTAL DVLPMNT/DEEPENING
TO DIMINISH POPS OVR THE IMMEDIATE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SHRTWV/VORT
PROJECTIONS THROUGH THE WRN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM IS MINIMAL...SO
HAVE MAINTAINED AT LEAST SLGT POPS OVR THE RIDGES THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR
THE CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CLOSE
TO THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM
PD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPD WITH INCRG AC THRU THIS AFTN AHD OF AN APCHG
SHRTWV. THIS SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS EXPD TO BRING MVFR
CONDS AND INCRG SHWR CHCS THIS EVE AND OVRNGT. FKL/DUJ COULD ALSO
SEE IFR CIGS LT TNGT AS LLVL MOISTURE POOLS.

.AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL THRU MID WK AS AN UPR LOW DRIFTS ACRS THE
RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200738
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
338 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES WILL RESUME AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM ADVCTN AND THICKENING CLD COVER WL PRECLUDE MUCH MORE OF A
TEMP DROP THIS MRNG...WITH MANY READINGS FM ALNG AND N OF I 70
RISING. THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THE CNTIES SURROUNDING MORGANTOWN
WAS THUS DROPPED EARLY AS WIDESPREAD FROST IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH
EXTENSIVE CIRROSTRATUS SHIELD/ENCROACHING ALTOSTRATUS AND GENL
TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S IN THE ADVISORY AREA EXPECTED TO BEGIN RISING
BEFORE SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...THE APCHG SHRTWV THAT IS SPEWING UPR AND MID LVL CLDINESS
OVR THE REGION...IS STILL EXPECTED TO GENERATE SHWRS OVR BY EVE.
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR LGT PCPN HAVE BEEN CONTINUED...BUT
OVRALL NMBRS WERE TEMPERED AND TIMING FURTHER ADJUSTED FOR A
LATER START GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE DRY LYR ON THE EVE SNDING AS
WELL AS THE LATEST MDL TRENDS.

MRNG TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING HRLY LAMP GUIDANCE AND RAP NMBRS...WHILE
COOL DAYTIME HIGHS WERE TWEAKED USING GFS MOSGUIDE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A JET STREAK MOVG THROUGH THE WRN FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFT UPR TROF
IS PROGGED TO CARVE A CUTOFF LOW OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION BY
LATE TUESDAY. COOLING MID LVLS WITH THAT SYSTEM WL LOWER CONVECTIVE
THRESHOLDS AND SPPRT SHWR ACTIVITY THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH PARTICULAR
EMPHASIS OVR UPSLOPE REGIONS TO THE N AND E OF PITTSBURGH.

BY THURSDAY...MDL WORLD PROJECTS SUFFICIENT COASTAL DVLPMNT/DEEPENING
TO DIMINISH POPS OVR THE IMMEDIATE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SHRTWV/VORT
PROJECTIONS THROUGH THE WRN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM IS MINIMAL...SO
HAVE MAINTAINED AT LEAST SLGT POPS OVR THE RIDGES THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR
THE CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CLOSE
TO THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM
PD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPD WITH INCRG AC/CS THRU TDA AHD OF AN APCHG
SHRTWV. THIS SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS EXPD TO BRING MVFR
CONDS AND INCRG SHWR CHCS THIS EVE AND OVRNGT.

.AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL THRU MID WK AS AN UPR LOW DRIFTS ACRS THE
RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

15/07

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200738
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
338 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES WILL RESUME AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM ADVCTN AND THICKENING CLD COVER WL PRECLUDE MUCH MORE OF A
TEMP DROP THIS MRNG...WITH MANY READINGS FM ALNG AND N OF I 70
RISING. THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THE CNTIES SURROUNDING MORGANTOWN
WAS THUS DROPPED EARLY AS WIDESPREAD FROST IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH
EXTENSIVE CIRROSTRATUS SHIELD/ENCROACHING ALTOSTRATUS AND GENL
TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S IN THE ADVISORY AREA EXPECTED TO BEGIN RISING
BEFORE SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...THE APCHG SHRTWV THAT IS SPEWING UPR AND MID LVL CLDINESS
OVR THE REGION...IS STILL EXPECTED TO GENERATE SHWRS OVR BY EVE.
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR LGT PCPN HAVE BEEN CONTINUED...BUT
OVRALL NMBRS WERE TEMPERED AND TIMING FURTHER ADJUSTED FOR A
LATER START GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE DRY LYR ON THE EVE SNDING AS
WELL AS THE LATEST MDL TRENDS.

MRNG TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING HRLY LAMP GUIDANCE AND RAP NMBRS...WHILE
COOL DAYTIME HIGHS WERE TWEAKED USING GFS MOSGUIDE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A JET STREAK MOVG THROUGH THE WRN FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFT UPR TROF
IS PROGGED TO CARVE A CUTOFF LOW OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION BY
LATE TUESDAY. COOLING MID LVLS WITH THAT SYSTEM WL LOWER CONVECTIVE
THRESHOLDS AND SPPRT SHWR ACTIVITY THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH PARTICULAR
EMPHASIS OVR UPSLOPE REGIONS TO THE N AND E OF PITTSBURGH.

BY THURSDAY...MDL WORLD PROJECTS SUFFICIENT COASTAL DVLPMNT/DEEPENING
TO DIMINISH POPS OVR THE IMMEDIATE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SHRTWV/VORT
PROJECTIONS THROUGH THE WRN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM IS MINIMAL...SO
HAVE MAINTAINED AT LEAST SLGT POPS OVR THE RIDGES THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR
THE CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CLOSE
TO THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM
PD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPD WITH INCRG AC/CS THRU TDA AHD OF AN APCHG
SHRTWV. THIS SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS EXPD TO BRING MVFR
CONDS AND INCRG SHWR CHCS THIS EVE AND OVRNGT.

.AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL THRU MID WK AS AN UPR LOW DRIFTS ACRS THE
RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

15/07

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200738
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
338 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES WILL RESUME AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM ADVCTN AND THICKENING CLD COVER WL PRECLUDE MUCH MORE OF A
TEMP DROP THIS MRNG...WITH MANY READINGS FM ALNG AND N OF I 70
RISING. THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THE CNTIES SURROUNDING MORGANTOWN
WAS THUS DROPPED EARLY AS WIDESPREAD FROST IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH
EXTENSIVE CIRROSTRATUS SHIELD/ENCROACHING ALTOSTRATUS AND GENL
TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S IN THE ADVISORY AREA EXPECTED TO BEGIN RISING
BEFORE SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...THE APCHG SHRTWV THAT IS SPEWING UPR AND MID LVL CLDINESS
OVR THE REGION...IS STILL EXPECTED TO GENERATE SHWRS OVR BY EVE.
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR LGT PCPN HAVE BEEN CONTINUED...BUT
OVRALL NMBRS WERE TEMPERED AND TIMING FURTHER ADJUSTED FOR A
LATER START GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE DRY LYR ON THE EVE SNDING AS
WELL AS THE LATEST MDL TRENDS.

MRNG TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING HRLY LAMP GUIDANCE AND RAP NMBRS...WHILE
COOL DAYTIME HIGHS WERE TWEAKED USING GFS MOSGUIDE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A JET STREAK MOVG THROUGH THE WRN FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFT UPR TROF
IS PROGGED TO CARVE A CUTOFF LOW OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION BY
LATE TUESDAY. COOLING MID LVLS WITH THAT SYSTEM WL LOWER CONVECTIVE
THRESHOLDS AND SPPRT SHWR ACTIVITY THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH PARTICULAR
EMPHASIS OVR UPSLOPE REGIONS TO THE N AND E OF PITTSBURGH.

BY THURSDAY...MDL WORLD PROJECTS SUFFICIENT COASTAL DVLPMNT/DEEPENING
TO DIMINISH POPS OVR THE IMMEDIATE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SHRTWV/VORT
PROJECTIONS THROUGH THE WRN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM IS MINIMAL...SO
HAVE MAINTAINED AT LEAST SLGT POPS OVR THE RIDGES THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR
THE CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CLOSE
TO THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM
PD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPD WITH INCRG AC/CS THRU TDA AHD OF AN APCHG
SHRTWV. THIS SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS EXPD TO BRING MVFR
CONDS AND INCRG SHWR CHCS THIS EVE AND OVRNGT.

.AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL THRU MID WK AS AN UPR LOW DRIFTS ACRS THE
RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

15/07

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200436
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1236 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
POST MIDNGT UPDATE FEATURE ADJUSTMENTS TO CLD AND TEMPS BASED ON
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL AND MDL TRENDS. IN GENL...WARM ADVCTN AND
INCRSG CLD COVER WL PRECLUDE MUCH MORE OF A TEMP DROP THIS MRNG.
FROST ADVISORY FOR THE CNTIES SURROUNDING MORGANTOWN WL RMN IN
EFFECT UNTIL THE CLDS AND SFC WIND OVR THAT AREA INCRS.

OTHERWISE...THE APCHG SHRTWV...WITH TROF AXIS OVR LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY
THIS MRNG...IS STILL EXPECTED TO GENERATE SHWRS OVR THE UPR OH REGION
BY EVE. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS HAVE BEEN CONTINUED...BUT OVRALL
NMBRS WERE TEMPERED AND TIMING ADJUSTED FOR A LATER START GIVEN THE
DEPTH OF THE DRY LYR ON THE EVE SNDING AS WELL AS THE LATEST MDL
TRENDS.

MRNG TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING HRLY LAMP GUIDANCE AND RAP NMBRS...WHILE
COOL DAYTIME HIGHS WERE TWEAKED USING GFS MOSGUIDE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A JET STREAK MOVG THROUGH THE WRN FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFT UPR TROF
IS PROGGED TO CARVE A CUTOFF LOW OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION BY
LATE TUESDAY. COOLING MID LVLS WITH THAT SYSTEM WL LOWER CONVECTIVE
THRESHOLDS AND SPPRT SHWR ACTIVITY THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH PARTICULAR
EMPHASIS OVR UPSLOPE REGIONS TO THE N AND E OF PITTSBURGH.

BY THURSDAY...MDL WORLD PROJECTS SUFFICIENT COASTAL DVLPMNT/DEEPENING
TO DIMINISH POPS OVR THE IMMEDIATE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SHRTWV/VORT
PROJECTIONS THROUGH THE WRN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM IS MINIMAL...SO
HAVE HELD AT LEAST SLGT POPS OVR THE RIDGES THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR LOW SHOULD ENSURE A DRY AND
SEASONALLY COOL CLOSE TO THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO
REPRESENT THE LONG TERM PD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPD WITH INCRG AC/CI THRU TDA AHD OF AN APCHG
SHRTWV. THIS SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS EXPD TO BRING MVFR
CONDS AND INCRG SHWR CHCS THIS EVE AND OVRNGT.

.AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL THRU MID WK AS AN UPR LOW DRIFTS ACRS THE
RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ012-
     021-022.

&&

$$

15/07





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200436
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1236 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
POST MIDNGT UPDATE FEATURE ADJUSTMENTS TO CLD AND TEMPS BASED ON
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL AND MDL TRENDS. IN GENL...WARM ADVCTN AND
INCRSG CLD COVER WL PRECLUDE MUCH MORE OF A TEMP DROP THIS MRNG.
FROST ADVISORY FOR THE CNTIES SURROUNDING MORGANTOWN WL RMN IN
EFFECT UNTIL THE CLDS AND SFC WIND OVR THAT AREA INCRS.

OTHERWISE...THE APCHG SHRTWV...WITH TROF AXIS OVR LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY
THIS MRNG...IS STILL EXPECTED TO GENERATE SHWRS OVR THE UPR OH REGION
BY EVE. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS HAVE BEEN CONTINUED...BUT OVRALL
NMBRS WERE TEMPERED AND TIMING ADJUSTED FOR A LATER START GIVEN THE
DEPTH OF THE DRY LYR ON THE EVE SNDING AS WELL AS THE LATEST MDL
TRENDS.

MRNG TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING HRLY LAMP GUIDANCE AND RAP NMBRS...WHILE
COOL DAYTIME HIGHS WERE TWEAKED USING GFS MOSGUIDE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A JET STREAK MOVG THROUGH THE WRN FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFT UPR TROF
IS PROGGED TO CARVE A CUTOFF LOW OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION BY
LATE TUESDAY. COOLING MID LVLS WITH THAT SYSTEM WL LOWER CONVECTIVE
THRESHOLDS AND SPPRT SHWR ACTIVITY THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH PARTICULAR
EMPHASIS OVR UPSLOPE REGIONS TO THE N AND E OF PITTSBURGH.

BY THURSDAY...MDL WORLD PROJECTS SUFFICIENT COASTAL DVLPMNT/DEEPENING
TO DIMINISH POPS OVR THE IMMEDIATE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SHRTWV/VORT
PROJECTIONS THROUGH THE WRN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM IS MINIMAL...SO
HAVE HELD AT LEAST SLGT POPS OVR THE RIDGES THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR LOW SHOULD ENSURE A DRY AND
SEASONALLY COOL CLOSE TO THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO
REPRESENT THE LONG TERM PD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPD WITH INCRG AC/CI THRU TDA AHD OF AN APCHG
SHRTWV. THIS SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS EXPD TO BRING MVFR
CONDS AND INCRG SHWR CHCS THIS EVE AND OVRNGT.

.AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL THRU MID WK AS AN UPR LOW DRIFTS ACRS THE
RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ012-
     021-022.

&&

$$

15/07






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 192350
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
750 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WITH 8PM UPDATE...MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO SKY AND
TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CIRRUS COVERAGE HAS
COME IN A BIT MORE QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED...AND THINK THAT THIS MAY
SLOW DOWN THE COOLING TREND OVERNIGHT ENOUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES TO PREVENT FROST FROM DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE
WITH FROST ADVISORY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MID- AND UPR-LVL CLDS WILL INCR AHEAD OF APRCHG SHRTWV TROF THAT
WILL DIG INTO GRTLKS TNGT. WIND ALREADY HAS BCM LGT AND WILL BACK
TO SWLY IN RESPONSE TO APRCHG TROF. WITH LGT WIND...COOL TEMPS AND
LMTD THICKNESS TO CI IMPINGING ON SRN ZONES...FROST WILL BE PSBL
IN FAR SRN ZONES... WHERE CLD CVR WILL BE SLOWEST TO ARRIVE. FROST
ADZY WAS ISSUED FOR MARION/MONONGALIA/WETZEL CTYS FOR LATE TNGT.
ELSEWHERE...GROWING SEASON IS OVER OR MINIMA WILL RMN TOO ELEVATED
FOR FROST.

PREV SHIFT TRENDED SLOWER WITH PCPN ONSET ON MON...WHICH SEEMS
LIKE A GOOD CHOICE. THIS TREND WAS CONTD TDA...WITH PCPN ONLY XPCD
TO REACH NWRN ZONES BY LATE MON AFTN. TROF AXIS WILL CROSS MON
NGT...AND PCPN WILL SHIFT EWD THRU EARLY TUE MRNG. BY END OF MON
NGT PD...PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY FOCUSED IN FAR ERN ZONES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH UPR TROF AND ALONG LAKESHORES AS NWLY FLOW BEHIND
CDFNT INCRS CVRG OF LAKE-ENHANCED SHWRS. PRIMARY ADJUSTMENT THESE
PDS WAS TO INCR POPS TO CATEGORICAL MON NGT AND INTRODUCE SHARPER
PCPN GRADIENT BY TUE MRNG.

TEMPS ON MON XPCD TO CLIMB INTO MID-UPR 50S AS FILTERED SUNSHINE
XPCD IN WARM SECTOR OWING TO SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN. KRAMAR

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BRIEF MORNING LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY MORE INSTABILITY AND WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY BY AFTERNOON AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVES DOWN
THE BACK SIDE AND INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGER WAVE RESIDENT TROUGH
OVER THE REGION. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES FALL FAIRLY WELL BY
AFTERNOON...IN FACT EVEN ENOUGH THAT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY CAN
BE NOTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. WHILE VERY SKINNY CAPE DOES MANAGE TO
WORK ITS WAY UP ABOVE THE -20C LEVEL...TOTAL CAPE VALUES OF
ROUGHLY 100 J/KG AND MINIMAL SHEAR MAKE ADDING THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE FORECAST SEEM LIKE OVERKILL. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
THERE MAY BE A ONE STRIKE WONDER AROUND.

UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW THEN CONTINUES AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES
OFF...CUTS OFF...AND SLOWLY...BEGRUDINGLY...MEANDERS EASTWARD FROM
THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS ALLOWS FOR A PAINSTAKINGLY SLOW
WIND DOWN IN POPS AND AN EVEN SLOWER CLEAR OUT OF THE SKIES GOING
TOWARD THE LONGER TERM. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SYSTEM FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A
PERIOD OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR INTO MONDAY AS ONLY CIRRUS ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING MID DECK NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST MONDAY WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTS
LATE DAY.

.AVIATION /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS EAST OF THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ012-021-022.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 192350
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
750 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WITH 8PM UPDATE...MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO SKY AND
TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CIRRUS COVERAGE HAS
COME IN A BIT MORE QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED...AND THINK THAT THIS MAY
SLOW DOWN THE COOLING TREND OVERNIGHT ENOUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES TO PREVENT FROST FROM DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE
WITH FROST ADVISORY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MID- AND UPR-LVL CLDS WILL INCR AHEAD OF APRCHG SHRTWV TROF THAT
WILL DIG INTO GRTLKS TNGT. WIND ALREADY HAS BCM LGT AND WILL BACK
TO SWLY IN RESPONSE TO APRCHG TROF. WITH LGT WIND...COOL TEMPS AND
LMTD THICKNESS TO CI IMPINGING ON SRN ZONES...FROST WILL BE PSBL
IN FAR SRN ZONES... WHERE CLD CVR WILL BE SLOWEST TO ARRIVE. FROST
ADZY WAS ISSUED FOR MARION/MONONGALIA/WETZEL CTYS FOR LATE TNGT.
ELSEWHERE...GROWING SEASON IS OVER OR MINIMA WILL RMN TOO ELEVATED
FOR FROST.

PREV SHIFT TRENDED SLOWER WITH PCPN ONSET ON MON...WHICH SEEMS
LIKE A GOOD CHOICE. THIS TREND WAS CONTD TDA...WITH PCPN ONLY XPCD
TO REACH NWRN ZONES BY LATE MON AFTN. TROF AXIS WILL CROSS MON
NGT...AND PCPN WILL SHIFT EWD THRU EARLY TUE MRNG. BY END OF MON
NGT PD...PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY FOCUSED IN FAR ERN ZONES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH UPR TROF AND ALONG LAKESHORES AS NWLY FLOW BEHIND
CDFNT INCRS CVRG OF LAKE-ENHANCED SHWRS. PRIMARY ADJUSTMENT THESE
PDS WAS TO INCR POPS TO CATEGORICAL MON NGT AND INTRODUCE SHARPER
PCPN GRADIENT BY TUE MRNG.

TEMPS ON MON XPCD TO CLIMB INTO MID-UPR 50S AS FILTERED SUNSHINE
XPCD IN WARM SECTOR OWING TO SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN. KRAMAR

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BRIEF MORNING LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY MORE INSTABILITY AND WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY BY AFTERNOON AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVES DOWN
THE BACK SIDE AND INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGER WAVE RESIDENT TROUGH
OVER THE REGION. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES FALL FAIRLY WELL BY
AFTERNOON...IN FACT EVEN ENOUGH THAT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY CAN
BE NOTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. WHILE VERY SKINNY CAPE DOES MANAGE TO
WORK ITS WAY UP ABOVE THE -20C LEVEL...TOTAL CAPE VALUES OF
ROUGHLY 100 J/KG AND MINIMAL SHEAR MAKE ADDING THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE FORECAST SEEM LIKE OVERKILL. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
THERE MAY BE A ONE STRIKE WONDER AROUND.

UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW THEN CONTINUES AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES
OFF...CUTS OFF...AND SLOWLY...BEGRUDINGLY...MEANDERS EASTWARD FROM
THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS ALLOWS FOR A PAINSTAKINGLY SLOW
WIND DOWN IN POPS AND AN EVEN SLOWER CLEAR OUT OF THE SKIES GOING
TOWARD THE LONGER TERM. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SYSTEM FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A
PERIOD OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR INTO MONDAY AS ONLY CIRRUS ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING MID DECK NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST MONDAY WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTS
LATE DAY.

.AVIATION /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS EAST OF THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ012-021-022.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 192350
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
750 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WITH 8PM UPDATE...MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO SKY AND
TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CIRRUS COVERAGE HAS
COME IN A BIT MORE QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED...AND THINK THAT THIS MAY
SLOW DOWN THE COOLING TREND OVERNIGHT ENOUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES TO PREVENT FROST FROM DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE
WITH FROST ADVISORY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MID- AND UPR-LVL CLDS WILL INCR AHEAD OF APRCHG SHRTWV TROF THAT
WILL DIG INTO GRTLKS TNGT. WIND ALREADY HAS BCM LGT AND WILL BACK
TO SWLY IN RESPONSE TO APRCHG TROF. WITH LGT WIND...COOL TEMPS AND
LMTD THICKNESS TO CI IMPINGING ON SRN ZONES...FROST WILL BE PSBL
IN FAR SRN ZONES... WHERE CLD CVR WILL BE SLOWEST TO ARRIVE. FROST
ADZY WAS ISSUED FOR MARION/MONONGALIA/WETZEL CTYS FOR LATE TNGT.
ELSEWHERE...GROWING SEASON IS OVER OR MINIMA WILL RMN TOO ELEVATED
FOR FROST.

PREV SHIFT TRENDED SLOWER WITH PCPN ONSET ON MON...WHICH SEEMS
LIKE A GOOD CHOICE. THIS TREND WAS CONTD TDA...WITH PCPN ONLY XPCD
TO REACH NWRN ZONES BY LATE MON AFTN. TROF AXIS WILL CROSS MON
NGT...AND PCPN WILL SHIFT EWD THRU EARLY TUE MRNG. BY END OF MON
NGT PD...PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY FOCUSED IN FAR ERN ZONES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH UPR TROF AND ALONG LAKESHORES AS NWLY FLOW BEHIND
CDFNT INCRS CVRG OF LAKE-ENHANCED SHWRS. PRIMARY ADJUSTMENT THESE
PDS WAS TO INCR POPS TO CATEGORICAL MON NGT AND INTRODUCE SHARPER
PCPN GRADIENT BY TUE MRNG.

TEMPS ON MON XPCD TO CLIMB INTO MID-UPR 50S AS FILTERED SUNSHINE
XPCD IN WARM SECTOR OWING TO SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN. KRAMAR

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BRIEF MORNING LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY MORE INSTABILITY AND WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY BY AFTERNOON AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVES DOWN
THE BACK SIDE AND INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGER WAVE RESIDENT TROUGH
OVER THE REGION. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES FALL FAIRLY WELL BY
AFTERNOON...IN FACT EVEN ENOUGH THAT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY CAN
BE NOTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. WHILE VERY SKINNY CAPE DOES MANAGE TO
WORK ITS WAY UP ABOVE THE -20C LEVEL...TOTAL CAPE VALUES OF
ROUGHLY 100 J/KG AND MINIMAL SHEAR MAKE ADDING THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE FORECAST SEEM LIKE OVERKILL. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
THERE MAY BE A ONE STRIKE WONDER AROUND.

UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW THEN CONTINUES AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES
OFF...CUTS OFF...AND SLOWLY...BEGRUDINGLY...MEANDERS EASTWARD FROM
THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS ALLOWS FOR A PAINSTAKINGLY SLOW
WIND DOWN IN POPS AND AN EVEN SLOWER CLEAR OUT OF THE SKIES GOING
TOWARD THE LONGER TERM. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SYSTEM FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A
PERIOD OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR INTO MONDAY AS ONLY CIRRUS ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING MID DECK NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST MONDAY WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTS
LATE DAY.

.AVIATION /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS EAST OF THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ012-021-022.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 192318
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
718 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WITH 5PM UPDATE...MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO SKY...WIND...AND
TEMPERATURES TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

MID- AND UPR-LVL CLDS WILL INCR AHEAD OF APRCHG SHRTWV TROF THAT
WILL DIG INTO GRTLKS TNGT. WIND ALREADY HAS BCM LGT AND WILL BACK
TO SWLY IN RESPONSE TO APRCHG TROF. WITH LGT WIND...COOL TEMPS AND
LMTD THICKNESS TO CI IMPINGING ON SRN ZONES...FROST WILL BE PSBL
IN FAR SRN ZONES... WHERE CLD CVR WILL BE SLOWEST TO ARRIVE. FROST
ADZY WAS ISSUED FOR MARION/MONONGALIA/WETZEL CTYS FOR LATE TNGT.
ELSEWHERE...GROWING SEASON IS OVER OR MINIMA WILL RMN TOO ELEVATED
FOR FROST.

PREV SHIFT TRENDED SLOWER WITH PCPN ONSET ON MON...WHICH SEEMS
LIKE A GOOD CHOICE. THIS TREND WAS CONTD TDA...WITH PCPN ONLY XPCD
TO REACH NWRN ZONES BY LATE MON AFTN. TROF AXIS WILL CROSS MON
NGT...AND PCPN WILL SHIFT EWD THRU EARLY TUE MRNG. BY END OF MON
NGT PD...PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY FOCUSED IN FAR ERN ZONES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH UPR TROF AND ALONG LAKESHORES AS NWLY FLOW BEHIND
CDFNT INCRS CVRG OF LAKE-ENHANCED SHWRS. PRIMARY ADJUSTMENT THESE
PDS WAS TO INCR POPS TO CATEGORICAL MON NGT AND INTRODUCE SHARPER
PCPN GRADIENT BY TUE MRNG.

TEMPS ON MON XPCD TO CLIMB INTO MID-UPR 50S AS FILTERED SUNSHINE
XPCD IN WARM SECTOR OWING TO SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN. KRAMAR

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BRIEF MORNING LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY MORE INSTABILITY AND WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY BY AFTERNOON AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVES DOWN
THE BACK SIDE AND INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGER WAVE RESIDENT TROUGH
OVER THE REGION. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES FALL FAIRLY WELL BY
AFTERNOON...IN FACT EVEN ENOUGH THAT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY CAN
BE NOTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. WHILE VERY SKINNY CAPE DOES MANAGE TO
WORK ITS WAY UP ABOVE THE -20C LEVEL...TOTAL CAPE VALUES OF
ROUGHLY 100 J/KG AND MINIMAL SHEAR MAKE ADDING THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE FORECAST SEEM LIKE OVERKILL. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
THERE MAY BE A ONE STRIKE WONDER AROUND.

UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW THEN CONTINUES AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES
OFF...CUTS OFF...AND SLOWLY...BEGRUDINGLY...MEANDERS EASTWARD FROM
THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS ALLOWS FOR A PAINSTAKINGLY SLOW
WIND DOWN IN POPS AND AN EVEN SLOWER CLEAR OUT OF THE SKIES GOING
TOWARD THE LONGER TERM. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SYSTEM FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A
PERIOD OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR INTO MONDAY AS ONLY CIRRUS ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING MID DECK NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST MONDAY WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTS
LATE DAY.

.AVIATION /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS EAST OF THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ012-021-022.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 192318
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
718 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WITH 5PM UPDATE...MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO SKY...WIND...AND
TEMPERATURES TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

MID- AND UPR-LVL CLDS WILL INCR AHEAD OF APRCHG SHRTWV TROF THAT
WILL DIG INTO GRTLKS TNGT. WIND ALREADY HAS BCM LGT AND WILL BACK
TO SWLY IN RESPONSE TO APRCHG TROF. WITH LGT WIND...COOL TEMPS AND
LMTD THICKNESS TO CI IMPINGING ON SRN ZONES...FROST WILL BE PSBL
IN FAR SRN ZONES... WHERE CLD CVR WILL BE SLOWEST TO ARRIVE. FROST
ADZY WAS ISSUED FOR MARION/MONONGALIA/WETZEL CTYS FOR LATE TNGT.
ELSEWHERE...GROWING SEASON IS OVER OR MINIMA WILL RMN TOO ELEVATED
FOR FROST.

PREV SHIFT TRENDED SLOWER WITH PCPN ONSET ON MON...WHICH SEEMS
LIKE A GOOD CHOICE. THIS TREND WAS CONTD TDA...WITH PCPN ONLY XPCD
TO REACH NWRN ZONES BY LATE MON AFTN. TROF AXIS WILL CROSS MON
NGT...AND PCPN WILL SHIFT EWD THRU EARLY TUE MRNG. BY END OF MON
NGT PD...PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY FOCUSED IN FAR ERN ZONES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH UPR TROF AND ALONG LAKESHORES AS NWLY FLOW BEHIND
CDFNT INCRS CVRG OF LAKE-ENHANCED SHWRS. PRIMARY ADJUSTMENT THESE
PDS WAS TO INCR POPS TO CATEGORICAL MON NGT AND INTRODUCE SHARPER
PCPN GRADIENT BY TUE MRNG.

TEMPS ON MON XPCD TO CLIMB INTO MID-UPR 50S AS FILTERED SUNSHINE
XPCD IN WARM SECTOR OWING TO SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN. KRAMAR

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BRIEF MORNING LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY MORE INSTABILITY AND WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY BY AFTERNOON AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVES DOWN
THE BACK SIDE AND INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGER WAVE RESIDENT TROUGH
OVER THE REGION. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES FALL FAIRLY WELL BY
AFTERNOON...IN FACT EVEN ENOUGH THAT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY CAN
BE NOTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. WHILE VERY SKINNY CAPE DOES MANAGE TO
WORK ITS WAY UP ABOVE THE -20C LEVEL...TOTAL CAPE VALUES OF
ROUGHLY 100 J/KG AND MINIMAL SHEAR MAKE ADDING THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE FORECAST SEEM LIKE OVERKILL. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
THERE MAY BE A ONE STRIKE WONDER AROUND.

UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW THEN CONTINUES AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES
OFF...CUTS OFF...AND SLOWLY...BEGRUDINGLY...MEANDERS EASTWARD FROM
THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS ALLOWS FOR A PAINSTAKINGLY SLOW
WIND DOWN IN POPS AND AN EVEN SLOWER CLEAR OUT OF THE SKIES GOING
TOWARD THE LONGER TERM. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SYSTEM FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A
PERIOD OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR INTO MONDAY AS ONLY CIRRUS ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING MID DECK NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST MONDAY WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTS
LATE DAY.

.AVIATION /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS EAST OF THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ012-021-022.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 192318
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
718 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WITH 5PM UPDATE...MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO SKY...WIND...AND
TEMPERATURES TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

MID- AND UPR-LVL CLDS WILL INCR AHEAD OF APRCHG SHRTWV TROF THAT
WILL DIG INTO GRTLKS TNGT. WIND ALREADY HAS BCM LGT AND WILL BACK
TO SWLY IN RESPONSE TO APRCHG TROF. WITH LGT WIND...COOL TEMPS AND
LMTD THICKNESS TO CI IMPINGING ON SRN ZONES...FROST WILL BE PSBL
IN FAR SRN ZONES... WHERE CLD CVR WILL BE SLOWEST TO ARRIVE. FROST
ADZY WAS ISSUED FOR MARION/MONONGALIA/WETZEL CTYS FOR LATE TNGT.
ELSEWHERE...GROWING SEASON IS OVER OR MINIMA WILL RMN TOO ELEVATED
FOR FROST.

PREV SHIFT TRENDED SLOWER WITH PCPN ONSET ON MON...WHICH SEEMS
LIKE A GOOD CHOICE. THIS TREND WAS CONTD TDA...WITH PCPN ONLY XPCD
TO REACH NWRN ZONES BY LATE MON AFTN. TROF AXIS WILL CROSS MON
NGT...AND PCPN WILL SHIFT EWD THRU EARLY TUE MRNG. BY END OF MON
NGT PD...PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY FOCUSED IN FAR ERN ZONES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH UPR TROF AND ALONG LAKESHORES AS NWLY FLOW BEHIND
CDFNT INCRS CVRG OF LAKE-ENHANCED SHWRS. PRIMARY ADJUSTMENT THESE
PDS WAS TO INCR POPS TO CATEGORICAL MON NGT AND INTRODUCE SHARPER
PCPN GRADIENT BY TUE MRNG.

TEMPS ON MON XPCD TO CLIMB INTO MID-UPR 50S AS FILTERED SUNSHINE
XPCD IN WARM SECTOR OWING TO SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN. KRAMAR

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BRIEF MORNING LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY MORE INSTABILITY AND WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY BY AFTERNOON AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVES DOWN
THE BACK SIDE AND INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGER WAVE RESIDENT TROUGH
OVER THE REGION. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES FALL FAIRLY WELL BY
AFTERNOON...IN FACT EVEN ENOUGH THAT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY CAN
BE NOTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. WHILE VERY SKINNY CAPE DOES MANAGE TO
WORK ITS WAY UP ABOVE THE -20C LEVEL...TOTAL CAPE VALUES OF
ROUGHLY 100 J/KG AND MINIMAL SHEAR MAKE ADDING THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE FORECAST SEEM LIKE OVERKILL. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
THERE MAY BE A ONE STRIKE WONDER AROUND.

UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW THEN CONTINUES AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES
OFF...CUTS OFF...AND SLOWLY...BEGRUDINGLY...MEANDERS EASTWARD FROM
THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS ALLOWS FOR A PAINSTAKINGLY SLOW
WIND DOWN IN POPS AND AN EVEN SLOWER CLEAR OUT OF THE SKIES GOING
TOWARD THE LONGER TERM. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SYSTEM FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A
PERIOD OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR INTO MONDAY AS ONLY CIRRUS ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING MID DECK NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST MONDAY WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTS
LATE DAY.

.AVIATION /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS EAST OF THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ012-021-022.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 192109
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
509 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WITH 5PM UPDATE...MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO SKY...WIND...AND
TEMPERATURES TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

MID- AND UPR-LVL CLDS WILL INCR AHEAD OF APRCHG SHRTWV TROF THAT
WILL DIG INTO GRTLKS TNGT. WIND ALREADY HAS BCM LGT AND WILL BACK
TO SWLY IN RESPONSE TO APRCHG TROF. WITH LGT WIND...COOL TEMPS AND
LMTD THICKNESS TO CI IMPINGING ON SRN ZONES...FROST WILL BE PSBL
IN FAR SRN ZONES... WHERE CLD CVR WILL BE SLOWEST TO ARRIVE. FROST
ADZY WAS ISSUED FOR MARION/MONONGALIA/WETZEL CTYS FOR LATE TNGT.
ELSEWHERE...GROWING SEASON IS OVER OR MINIMA WILL RMN TOO ELEVATED
FOR FROST.

PREV SHIFT TRENDED SLOWER WITH PCPN ONSET ON MON...WHICH SEEMS
LIKE A GOOD CHOICE. THIS TREND WAS CONTD TDA...WITH PCPN ONLY XPCD
TO REACH NWRN ZONES BY LATE MON AFTN. TROF AXIS WILL CROSS MON
NGT...AND PCPN WILL SHIFT EWD THRU EARLY TUE MRNG. BY END OF MON
NGT PD...PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY FOCUSED IN FAR ERN ZONES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH UPR TROF AND ALONG LAKESHORES AS NWLY FLOW BEHIND
CDFNT INCRS CVRG OF LAKE-ENHANCED SHWRS. PRIMARY ADJUSTMENT THESE
PDS WAS TO INCR POPS TO CATEGORICAL MON NGT AND INTRODUCE SHARPER
PCPN GRADIENT BY TUE MRNG.

TEMPS ON MON XPCD TO CLIMB INTO MID-UPR 50S AS FILTERED SUNSHINE
XPCD IN WARM SECTOR OWING TO SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN. KRAMAR

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BRIEF MORNING LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY MORE INSTABILITY AND WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY BY AFTERNOON AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVES DOWN
THE BACK SIDE AND INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGER WAVE RESIDENT TROUGH
OVER THE REGION. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES FALL FAIRLY WELL BY
AFTERNOON...IN FACT EVEN ENOUGH THAT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY CAN
BE NOTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. WHILE VERY SKINNY CAPE DOES MANAGE TO
WORK ITS WAY UP ABOVE THE -20C LEVEL...TOTAL CAPE VALUES OF
ROUGHLY 100 J/KG AND MINIMAL SHEAR MAKE ADDING THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE FORECAST SEEM LIKE OVERKILL. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
THERE MAY BE A ONE STRIKE WONDER AROUND.

UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW THEN CONTINUES AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES
OFF...CUTS OFF...AND SLOWLY...BEGRUDINGLY...MEANDERS EASTWARD FROM
THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS ALLOWS FOR A PAINSTAKINGLY SLOW
WIND DOWN IN POPS AND AN EVEN SLOWER CLEAR OUT OF THE SKIES GOING
TOWARD THE LONGER TERM. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SYSTEM FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A
PERIOD OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS XPCD THRU LATE TNGT AS INVERSION HEIGHT LWRS AND AIDS IN
DISSIPATION OF STRATOCU DECK AT 3-4KFT. CIGS 3-4KFT XPCD TO DVLP
AGAIN MON MRNG AS SHRTWV TROF DIGS INTO GRTLKS RGN AND HEIGHTS
FALL. RAIN SHWRS XPCD TO IMPACT ALL TERMINALS AS THEY MOVE INTO
THE RGN FROM THE NW...AT KFKL BY LATE MON AFTN AND ACRS RMNDR OF
TERMINALS MON NGT. PCPN SHOULD BGN TO CLR BY EARLY TUE MRNG. VSBY
RESTRICTIONS TO AT LEAST MVFR /IF NOT IFR/ CAN BE ANTICIPATED IN
PCPN.

.AVIATION /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS XPCD THRU MID-WEEK AS UPR TROFG CONTS TO
IMPACT THE UPR OH RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ012-021-022.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 192109
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
509 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WITH 5PM UPDATE...MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO SKY...WIND...AND
TEMPERATURES TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

MID- AND UPR-LVL CLDS WILL INCR AHEAD OF APRCHG SHRTWV TROF THAT
WILL DIG INTO GRTLKS TNGT. WIND ALREADY HAS BCM LGT AND WILL BACK
TO SWLY IN RESPONSE TO APRCHG TROF. WITH LGT WIND...COOL TEMPS AND
LMTD THICKNESS TO CI IMPINGING ON SRN ZONES...FROST WILL BE PSBL
IN FAR SRN ZONES... WHERE CLD CVR WILL BE SLOWEST TO ARRIVE. FROST
ADZY WAS ISSUED FOR MARION/MONONGALIA/WETZEL CTYS FOR LATE TNGT.
ELSEWHERE...GROWING SEASON IS OVER OR MINIMA WILL RMN TOO ELEVATED
FOR FROST.

PREV SHIFT TRENDED SLOWER WITH PCPN ONSET ON MON...WHICH SEEMS
LIKE A GOOD CHOICE. THIS TREND WAS CONTD TDA...WITH PCPN ONLY XPCD
TO REACH NWRN ZONES BY LATE MON AFTN. TROF AXIS WILL CROSS MON
NGT...AND PCPN WILL SHIFT EWD THRU EARLY TUE MRNG. BY END OF MON
NGT PD...PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY FOCUSED IN FAR ERN ZONES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH UPR TROF AND ALONG LAKESHORES AS NWLY FLOW BEHIND
CDFNT INCRS CVRG OF LAKE-ENHANCED SHWRS. PRIMARY ADJUSTMENT THESE
PDS WAS TO INCR POPS TO CATEGORICAL MON NGT AND INTRODUCE SHARPER
PCPN GRADIENT BY TUE MRNG.

TEMPS ON MON XPCD TO CLIMB INTO MID-UPR 50S AS FILTERED SUNSHINE
XPCD IN WARM SECTOR OWING TO SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN. KRAMAR

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BRIEF MORNING LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY MORE INSTABILITY AND WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY BY AFTERNOON AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVES DOWN
THE BACK SIDE AND INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGER WAVE RESIDENT TROUGH
OVER THE REGION. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES FALL FAIRLY WELL BY
AFTERNOON...IN FACT EVEN ENOUGH THAT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY CAN
BE NOTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. WHILE VERY SKINNY CAPE DOES MANAGE TO
WORK ITS WAY UP ABOVE THE -20C LEVEL...TOTAL CAPE VALUES OF
ROUGHLY 100 J/KG AND MINIMAL SHEAR MAKE ADDING THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE FORECAST SEEM LIKE OVERKILL. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
THERE MAY BE A ONE STRIKE WONDER AROUND.

UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW THEN CONTINUES AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES
OFF...CUTS OFF...AND SLOWLY...BEGRUDINGLY...MEANDERS EASTWARD FROM
THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS ALLOWS FOR A PAINSTAKINGLY SLOW
WIND DOWN IN POPS AND AN EVEN SLOWER CLEAR OUT OF THE SKIES GOING
TOWARD THE LONGER TERM. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SYSTEM FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A
PERIOD OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS XPCD THRU LATE TNGT AS INVERSION HEIGHT LWRS AND AIDS IN
DISSIPATION OF STRATOCU DECK AT 3-4KFT. CIGS 3-4KFT XPCD TO DVLP
AGAIN MON MRNG AS SHRTWV TROF DIGS INTO GRTLKS RGN AND HEIGHTS
FALL. RAIN SHWRS XPCD TO IMPACT ALL TERMINALS AS THEY MOVE INTO
THE RGN FROM THE NW...AT KFKL BY LATE MON AFTN AND ACRS RMNDR OF
TERMINALS MON NGT. PCPN SHOULD BGN TO CLR BY EARLY TUE MRNG. VSBY
RESTRICTIONS TO AT LEAST MVFR /IF NOT IFR/ CAN BE ANTICIPATED IN
PCPN.

.AVIATION /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS XPCD THRU MID-WEEK AS UPR TROFG CONTS TO
IMPACT THE UPR OH RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ012-021-022.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191824
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
224 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRATOCU RESIDUAL FROM NWLY LAKE FLOW WILL DECR SLOWLY IN CVRG
THRU THE AFTN. BY LATE THIS AFTN...LOW CLDS WILL BE GONE WHILE
MID- AND UPR-LVL CLDS WILL INCR AHEAD OF APRCHG SHRTWV TROF THAT
WILL DIG INTO GRTLKS TNGT.

WIND ALREADY HAS BCM LGT AND WILL BACK TO SWLY IN RESPONSE TO
APRCHG TROF. WITH LGT WIND...COOL TEMPS AND LMTD THICKNESS TO CI
IMPINGING ON SRN ZONES...FROST WILL BE PSBL IN FAR SRN ZONES...
WHERE CLD CVR WILL BE SLOWEST TO ARRIVE. FROST ADZY WAS ISSUED FOR
MARION/MONONGALIA/WETZEL CTYS FOR LATE TNGT. ELSEWHERE...GROWING
SEASON IS OVER OR MINIMA WILL RMN TOO ELEVATED FOR FROST.

PREV SHIFT TRENDED SLOWER WITH PCPN ONSET ON MON...WHICH SEEMS
LIKE A GOOD CHOICE. THIS TREND WAS CONTD TDA...WITH PCPN ONLY XPCD
TO REACH NWRN ZONES BY LATE MON AFTN. TROF AXIS WILL CROSS MON
NGT...AND PCPN WILL SHIFT EWD THRU EARLY TUE MRNG. BY END OF MON
NGT PD...PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY FOCUSED IN FAR ERN ZONES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH UPR TROF AND ALONG LAKESHORES AS NWLY FLOW BEHIND
CDFNT INCRS CVRG OF LAKE-ENHANCED SHWRS. PRIMARY ADJUSTMENT THESE
PDS WAS TO INCR POPS TO CATEGORICAL MON NGT AND INTRODUCE SHARPER
PCPN GRADIENT BY TUE MRNG.

TEMPS ON MON XPCD TO CLIMB INTO MID-UPR 50S AS FILTERED SUNSHINE
XPCD IN WARM SECTOR OWING TO SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN. KRAMAR

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BRIEF MORNING LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY MORE INSTABILITY AND WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY BY AFTERNOON AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVES DOWN
THE BACK SIDE AND INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGER WAVE RESIDENT TROUGH
OVER THE REGION. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES FALL FAIRLY WELL BY
AFTERNOON...IN FACT EVEN ENOUGH THAT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY CAN
BE NOTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. WHILE VERY SKINNY CAPE DOES MANAGE TO
WORK ITS WAY UP ABOVE THE -20C LEVEL...TOTAL CAPE VALUES OF
ROUGHLY 100 J/KG AND MINIMAL SHEAR MAKE ADDING THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE FORECAST SEEM LIKE OVERKILL. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
THERE MAY BE A ONE STRIKE WONDER AROUND.

UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW THEN CONTINUES AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES
OFF...CUTS OFF...AND SLOWLY...BEGRUDINGLY...MEANDERS EASTWARD FROM
THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS ALLOWS FOR A PAINSTAKINGLY SLOW
WIND DOWN IN POPS AND AN EVEN SLOWER CLEAR OUT OF THE SKIES GOING
TOWARD THE LONGER TERM. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SYSTEM FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A
PERIOD OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS XPCD THRU LATE TNGT AS INVERSION HEIGHT LWRS AND AIDS IN
DISSIPATION OF STRATOCU DECK AT 3-4KFT. CIGS 3-4KFT XPCD TO DVLP
AGAIN MON MRNG AS SHRTWV TROF DIGS INTO GRTLKS RGN AND HEIGHTS
FALL. RAIN SHWRS XPCD TO IMPACT ALL TERMINALS AS THEY MOVE INTO
THE RGN FROM THE NW...AT KFKL BY LATE MON AFTN AND ACRS RMNDR OF
TERMINALS MON NGT. PCPN SHOULD BGN TO CLR BY EARLY TUE MRNG. VSBY
RESTRICTIONS TO AT LEAST MVFR /IF NOT IFR/ CAN BE ANTICIPATED IN
PCPN.

.AVIATION /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS XPCD THRU MID-WEEK AS UPR TROFG CONTS TO
IMPACT THE UPR OH RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ012-021-022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KRAMAR









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191020
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
620 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PREDAWN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST FOR HOURLY TRENDS OF TEMPS AND WEA.

PREVIOUS...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MIXING HEIGHTS BELOW 3 OR
4KFT INDICATING TOO SHALLOW OF A DEPTH FOR MUCH PRECIPITATION. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY
OVER LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH.

LATER THIS MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON...WARMER AIR WILL
SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A SLOW DECREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE
CLOUDS DISSIPATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE RUSHES EASTWARD IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WAA WILL
CONTINUE WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO +4 TO +7. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
WILL SPREAD MID CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY ALL NIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE
IS LACKING AND THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS UNIMPRESSIVE.

COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY...DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL STREAM
NORTHWARD. WITH THE BEST ASCENSION WELL TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR THE
BOUNDARY...HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE MONDAY MORNING DRY. POPS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE COLD FRONT.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT
CROSSES AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH.

BY TUESDAY MORNING...FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE WILL BE
HEADING TOWARD EASTERN PA AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CUTS OFF OVER
LAKE ERIE. THE BROAD 50H LOW WILL ROTATE SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPS ON TUESDAY
BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SYSTEM FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY. A PERIOD OF DRY AND
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESIDUAL SHWRS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID MRNG AS INVERSION LVLS CONT TO
LOWER IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING MID LVL TROF AXIS.
OTHERWISE...COLD NW BNDRY LYR FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES WL CONT TO
FUEL STRATOCU DVLPMNT THROUGH THE MRNG ALTHOUGH DRY ADVCTN AND
WEAKENING FLOW WL SPPRT A RISING CIG BASE. MVFR/LOW END VFR WL
THUS GIVE WAY TO GENL VFR BY THIS AFTN WITH RMNG STRATOCU
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS BNDRY LYR FLOW BACKS TO THE W BY LATE
DAY.

.AVIATION /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WL PERSIST INTO MID WEEK AS UPR TROFG
CONTS TO PLAGUE THE UPR OH REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/22






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190830 CCA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
429 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MIXING HEIGHTS BELOW 3 OR
4KFT INDICATING TOO SHALLOW OF A DEPTH FOR MUCH PRECIPITATION. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY
OVER LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH.

LATER THIS MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON...WARMER AIR WILL
SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A SLOW DECREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE
CLOUDS DISSIPATE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE RUSHES EASTWARD IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WAA WILL
CONTINUE WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO +4 TO +7. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
WILL SPREAD MID CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY ALL NIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE
IS LACKING AND THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS UNIMPRESSIVE.

COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY...DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL STREAM
NORTHWARD. WITH THE BEST ASCENSION WELL TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR THE
BOUNDARY...HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE MONDAY MORNING DRY. POPS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE COLD FRONT.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT
CROSSES AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH.

BY TUESDAY MORNING...FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE WILL BE
HEADING TOWARD EASTERN PA AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CUTS OFF OVER
LAKE ERIE. THE BROAD 50H LOW WILL ROTATE SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPS ON TUESDAY
BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SYSTEM FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY. A PERIOD OF DRY AND
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD NW BNDRY LYR FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES WL CONT TO FUEL STRATOCU
DVLPMNT THROUGH THE MRNG ALTHOUGH DRY ADVCTN MAY SPPRT A RISING
CIG BASE. MVFR WL THUS GIVE WAY TO VFR BY THIS AFTN WITH STRATOCU
THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS BNDRY LYR FLOW BACKS TO THE W BY
LATE DAY.

.AVIATION /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WL PERSIST INTO MID WEEK AS UPR TROFG
CONTS TO PLAGUE THE UPR OH REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190830 CCA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
429 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MIXING HEIGHTS BELOW 3 OR
4KFT INDICATING TOO SHALLOW OF A DEPTH FOR MUCH PRECIPITATION. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY
OVER LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH.

LATER THIS MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON...WARMER AIR WILL
SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A SLOW DECREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE
CLOUDS DISSIPATE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE RUSHES EASTWARD IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WAA WILL
CONTINUE WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO +4 TO +7. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
WILL SPREAD MID CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY ALL NIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE
IS LACKING AND THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS UNIMPRESSIVE.

COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY...DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL STREAM
NORTHWARD. WITH THE BEST ASCENSION WELL TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR THE
BOUNDARY...HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE MONDAY MORNING DRY. POPS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE COLD FRONT.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT
CROSSES AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH.

BY TUESDAY MORNING...FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE WILL BE
HEADING TOWARD EASTERN PA AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CUTS OFF OVER
LAKE ERIE. THE BROAD 50H LOW WILL ROTATE SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPS ON TUESDAY
BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SYSTEM FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY. A PERIOD OF DRY AND
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD NW BNDRY LYR FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES WL CONT TO FUEL STRATOCU
DVLPMNT THROUGH THE MRNG ALTHOUGH DRY ADVCTN MAY SPPRT A RISING
CIG BASE. MVFR WL THUS GIVE WAY TO VFR BY THIS AFTN WITH STRATOCU
THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS BNDRY LYR FLOW BACKS TO THE W BY
LATE DAY.

.AVIATION /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WL PERSIST INTO MID WEEK AS UPR TROFG
CONTS TO PLAGUE THE UPR OH REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190826
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
426 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MIXING HEIGHTS BELOW 3 OR
4KFT INDICATING TOO SHALLOW OF A DEPTH FOR MUCH PRECIPITATION. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY
OVER LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH.

LATER THIS MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON...WARMER AIR WILL
SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A SLOW DECREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE
CLOUDS DISSIPATE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE RUSHES EASTWARD IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WAA WILL
CONTINUE WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO +4 TO +7. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
WILL SPREAD MID CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY ALL NIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE
IS LACKING AND THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS UNIMPRESSIVE.

COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY...DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL STREAM
NORTHWARD. WITH THE BEST ASCENSION WELL TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR THE
BOUNDARY...HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE MONDAY MORNING DRY. POPS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE COLD FRONT.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT
CROSSES AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH.

BY TUESDAY MORNING...FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE WILL BE
HEADING TOWARD EASTERN PA AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CUTS OFF OVER
LAKE ERIE. THE BROAD 50H LOW WILL ROTATE SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPS ON TUESDAY
BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SYSTEM FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY. A PERIOD OF DRY AND
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD NW BNDRY LYR FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES WL CONT TO FUEL STRATOCU
DVLPMNT THROUGH THE MRNG ALTHOUGH DRY ADVCTN MAY SPPRT A RISING
CIG BASE. MVFR WL THUS GIVE WAY TO VFR BY THIS AFTN WITH STRATOCU
THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS BNDRY LYR FLOW BACKS TO THE W BY
LATE DAY.

.AVIATION /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WL PERSIST INTO MID WEEK AS UPR TROFG
CONTS TO PLAGUE THE UPR OH REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190826
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
426 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MIXING HEIGHTS BELOW 3 OR
4KFT INDICATING TOO SHALLOW OF A DEPTH FOR MUCH PRECIPITATION. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY
OVER LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH.

LATER THIS MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON...WARMER AIR WILL
SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A SLOW DECREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE
CLOUDS DISSIPATE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE RUSHES EASTWARD IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WAA WILL
CONTINUE WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO +4 TO +7. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
WILL SPREAD MID CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY ALL NIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE
IS LACKING AND THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS UNIMPRESSIVE.

COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY...DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL STREAM
NORTHWARD. WITH THE BEST ASCENSION WELL TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR THE
BOUNDARY...HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE MONDAY MORNING DRY. POPS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE COLD FRONT.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT
CROSSES AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH.

BY TUESDAY MORNING...FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE WILL BE
HEADING TOWARD EASTERN PA AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CUTS OFF OVER
LAKE ERIE. THE BROAD 50H LOW WILL ROTATE SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPS ON TUESDAY
BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SYSTEM FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY. A PERIOD OF DRY AND
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD NW BNDRY LYR FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES WL CONT TO FUEL STRATOCU
DVLPMNT THROUGH THE MRNG ALTHOUGH DRY ADVCTN MAY SPPRT A RISING
CIG BASE. MVFR WL THUS GIVE WAY TO VFR BY THIS AFTN WITH STRATOCU
THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS BNDRY LYR FLOW BACKS TO THE W BY
LATE DAY.

.AVIATION /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WL PERSIST INTO MID WEEK AS UPR TROFG
CONTS TO PLAGUE THE UPR OH REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190528 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
128 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LOWERED POPS OVERNIGHT AS LOWERING INVERSION LEVELS ARE BRINGING AN
END TO SHOWER ACTIVITY. TEMPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO LATEST
GUIDANCE.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MIXING HEIGHTS BELOW 3 OR 4KFT
INDICATING TOO SHALLOW OF A DEPTH FOR PRECIPITATION. WARMER AIR
WILL SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A DECREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER...ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST...THE NORTHWEST FLOW
AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL HOLD ON MEANING PLENTY OF CLOUD AND CHILLY
TEMPS. LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THE EASTERN HALF SHOULD BEGIN TO
ENJOY THE DECREASE IN LOW CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE RUSHES EASTWARD IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WAA WILL
CONTINUE WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO +4 TO +7. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
WILL SPREAD MID CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY ALL NIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE
IS LACKING AND THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS UNIMPRESSIVE.

COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY...DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL STREAM
NORTHWARD. WITH THE BEST ASCENSION WELL TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR THE
BOUNDARY...HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE MONDAY MORNING DRY. POPS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE COLD FRONT.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT
CROSSES AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH.

BY TUESDAY MORNING...FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE WILL BE
HEADING TOWARD EASTERN PA AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CUTS OFF OVER
LAKE ERIE. THE BROAD 50H LOW WILL ROTATE SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPS ON TUESDAY
BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SYSTEM FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY. A PERIOD OF DRY AND
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOWERING INVERSION WL SUPPRESS RESIDUAL SHWRS AS THE NGT PROGRESSES.
MEANWHILE...COLD NW BNDRY LYR FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES WL CONT TO
FUEL STRATOCU DVLPMNT THROUGH THE MRNG ALTHOUGH DRY ADVCTN MAY SPPRT
A RISING CIG BASE.  MVFR WL THUS GIVE WAY TO VFR BY THIS AFTN WITH
STRATOCU GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS BNDRY LYR FLOW BACKS TO THE W BY
LATE DAY.

.AVIATION /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WL PERSIST INTO MID WEEK AS UPR TROFG
CONTS TO PLAGUE THE UPR OH REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190528 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
128 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LOWERED POPS OVERNIGHT AS LOWERING INVERSION LEVELS ARE BRINGING AN
END TO SHOWER ACTIVITY. TEMPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO LATEST
GUIDANCE.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MIXING HEIGHTS BELOW 3 OR 4KFT
INDICATING TOO SHALLOW OF A DEPTH FOR PRECIPITATION. WARMER AIR
WILL SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A DECREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER...ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST...THE NORTHWEST FLOW
AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL HOLD ON MEANING PLENTY OF CLOUD AND CHILLY
TEMPS. LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THE EASTERN HALF SHOULD BEGIN TO
ENJOY THE DECREASE IN LOW CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE RUSHES EASTWARD IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WAA WILL
CONTINUE WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO +4 TO +7. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
WILL SPREAD MID CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY ALL NIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE
IS LACKING AND THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS UNIMPRESSIVE.

COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY...DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL STREAM
NORTHWARD. WITH THE BEST ASCENSION WELL TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR THE
BOUNDARY...HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE MONDAY MORNING DRY. POPS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE COLD FRONT.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT
CROSSES AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH.

BY TUESDAY MORNING...FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE WILL BE
HEADING TOWARD EASTERN PA AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CUTS OFF OVER
LAKE ERIE. THE BROAD 50H LOW WILL ROTATE SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPS ON TUESDAY
BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SYSTEM FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY. A PERIOD OF DRY AND
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOWERING INVERSION WL SUPPRESS RESIDUAL SHWRS AS THE NGT PROGRESSES.
MEANWHILE...COLD NW BNDRY LYR FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES WL CONT TO
FUEL STRATOCU DVLPMNT THROUGH THE MRNG ALTHOUGH DRY ADVCTN MAY SPPRT
A RISING CIG BASE.  MVFR WL THUS GIVE WAY TO VFR BY THIS AFTN WITH
STRATOCU GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS BNDRY LYR FLOW BACKS TO THE W BY
LATE DAY.

.AVIATION /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WL PERSIST INTO MID WEEK AS UPR TROFG
CONTS TO PLAGUE THE UPR OH REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190149
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
949 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EVENING UPDATE TO TREND POPS A BIT LOWER ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WITH SHORTWAVE NOW WELL SOUTH BUT A FEW
STREAMERS ARE DEVELOPING OFF THE LAKES IN COLD ADVECTION AND
NORTHWEST FLOW. NO OTHER CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO BASE OF UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
OHIO WILL SKIRT THE EASTERN OHIO COUNTIES WITH BULK OF SHOWERS
PASSING WELL SOUTH INTO WEST VIRGINIA. ELSEWHERE COLD NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAP THE WARM LAKES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES AND I-80 CORRIDOR. STILL
A CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW FLAKES TO MIX IN ACROSS THE HIGHER
SOUTHEAST RIDGES TOWARD DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE AS SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS EAST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN WESTERLY WITH DEEP DRYING
WORKING INTO REGION. NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS WITH
CLOUDS HELPING TO KEEP READINGS FROM FALLING OFF DRAMATICALLY.

18Z MODEL RUNS SHOW A BIT QUICKER EXIT OF UPPER TROUGH WITH
SURFACE HIGH MOVING TO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA BY AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO BEGIN TO BREAK OUT FOR PARTIAL SUNSHINE IN
THE AFTERNOON MOST LOCATIONS. CONTINUED QUITE COOL WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 40S FAR NORTH TO LOWER 50S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISING UP TOWARD +4C SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
POOR DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FALL ON MONDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT SERIES OF WAVES WHICH WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY.

THE FIRST WAVE LOOKS RATHER HIGHLY SHEARED AND MOISTURE STARVED ON
MONDAY...WITH A LAYER OF DRY AIR BELOW IT LIKELY TO ERODE WHAT
LITTLE BIT OF PRECIPITATION MAY BE GENERATED FROM THE WEAK
ELEVATED SATURATION AND LIFT IT MANAGES TO MUSTER. A DEEPER WAVE
WILL MOVE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FOR MONDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING ITS TILT AS IT DOES SO. THIS WILL AGAIN WORK A
BIT WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR TOWARD THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE
YIELDING A WINDOW OF REDUCED CHANCES OF RAINFALL IMMEDIATELY
PRECEDING IT. HOWEVER...BY MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...RAIN SHOULD AGAIN OVERSPREAD THE AREA SLOWLY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

YET ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH GOING
INTO TUESDAY...WHICH WILL AGAIN INCREASE THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OWING TO PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR ALOFT. IT IS THIS
WAVE THAT SEEMS TO BE THE CULPRIT IN REALLY HALTING THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN. AS IT DIVES INTO THE BASE OF
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ON TUESDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO FAVOR A
CLOSING OFF OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...IN ADVANCE OF THE
EVENTUAL CUTTING OFF OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR AREA
FROM THE POLAR JET. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP ON HOW FAR EAST THE CLOSED/CUT OFF
LOW WILL END UP AFTER MID-WEEK. CURRENT SOLUTIONS ARE AGAIN TOO
CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA TO KEEP THE MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES OUT
OF THE FORECAST UNTIL AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...EVEN
STILL...CLOUDS ARE STILL LIKELY TO REMAIN A PLAYER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE COMING WEEK. FRIES

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RAIN SHOWERS ARE ON THE WANE...BUT THINK THAT MANY TERMINALS COULD
STILL SEE A PASSING SHOWER THROUGH THE EVENING. GUSTS HAVE COME TO
AN END AT MOST TERMINALS AS WELL...WHICH WILL ALSO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ALL SITES
WILL RISE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. GUSTS ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE CONTAINED TO DUJ AND LBE.

.AVIATION /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS UPR TROFG CONTS IN THE UPR OH REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190149
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
949 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EVENING UPDATE TO TREND POPS A BIT LOWER ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WITH SHORTWAVE NOW WELL SOUTH BUT A FEW
STREAMERS ARE DEVELOPING OFF THE LAKES IN COLD ADVECTION AND
NORTHWEST FLOW. NO OTHER CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO BASE OF UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
OHIO WILL SKIRT THE EASTERN OHIO COUNTIES WITH BULK OF SHOWERS
PASSING WELL SOUTH INTO WEST VIRGINIA. ELSEWHERE COLD NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAP THE WARM LAKES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES AND I-80 CORRIDOR. STILL
A CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW FLAKES TO MIX IN ACROSS THE HIGHER
SOUTHEAST RIDGES TOWARD DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE AS SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS EAST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN WESTERLY WITH DEEP DRYING
WORKING INTO REGION. NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS WITH
CLOUDS HELPING TO KEEP READINGS FROM FALLING OFF DRAMATICALLY.

18Z MODEL RUNS SHOW A BIT QUICKER EXIT OF UPPER TROUGH WITH
SURFACE HIGH MOVING TO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA BY AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO BEGIN TO BREAK OUT FOR PARTIAL SUNSHINE IN
THE AFTERNOON MOST LOCATIONS. CONTINUED QUITE COOL WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 40S FAR NORTH TO LOWER 50S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISING UP TOWARD +4C SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
POOR DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FALL ON MONDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT SERIES OF WAVES WHICH WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY.

THE FIRST WAVE LOOKS RATHER HIGHLY SHEARED AND MOISTURE STARVED ON
MONDAY...WITH A LAYER OF DRY AIR BELOW IT LIKELY TO ERODE WHAT
LITTLE BIT OF PRECIPITATION MAY BE GENERATED FROM THE WEAK
ELEVATED SATURATION AND LIFT IT MANAGES TO MUSTER. A DEEPER WAVE
WILL MOVE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FOR MONDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING ITS TILT AS IT DOES SO. THIS WILL AGAIN WORK A
BIT WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR TOWARD THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE
YIELDING A WINDOW OF REDUCED CHANCES OF RAINFALL IMMEDIATELY
PRECEDING IT. HOWEVER...BY MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...RAIN SHOULD AGAIN OVERSPREAD THE AREA SLOWLY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

YET ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH GOING
INTO TUESDAY...WHICH WILL AGAIN INCREASE THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OWING TO PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR ALOFT. IT IS THIS
WAVE THAT SEEMS TO BE THE CULPRIT IN REALLY HALTING THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN. AS IT DIVES INTO THE BASE OF
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ON TUESDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO FAVOR A
CLOSING OFF OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...IN ADVANCE OF THE
EVENTUAL CUTTING OFF OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR AREA
FROM THE POLAR JET. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP ON HOW FAR EAST THE CLOSED/CUT OFF
LOW WILL END UP AFTER MID-WEEK. CURRENT SOLUTIONS ARE AGAIN TOO
CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA TO KEEP THE MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES OUT
OF THE FORECAST UNTIL AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...EVEN
STILL...CLOUDS ARE STILL LIKELY TO REMAIN A PLAYER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE COMING WEEK. FRIES

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RAIN SHOWERS ARE ON THE WANE...BUT THINK THAT MANY TERMINALS COULD
STILL SEE A PASSING SHOWER THROUGH THE EVENING. GUSTS HAVE COME TO
AN END AT MOST TERMINALS AS WELL...WHICH WILL ALSO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ALL SITES
WILL RISE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. GUSTS ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE CONTAINED TO DUJ AND LBE.

.AVIATION /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS UPR TROFG CONTS IN THE UPR OH REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KPBZ 182323
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
723 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO BASE OF UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
OHIO WILL SKIRT THE EASTERN OHIO COUNTIES WITH BULK OF SHOWERS
PASSING WELL SOUTH INTO WEST VIRGINIA. ELSEWHERE COLD NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAP THE WARM LAKES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES AND I-80 CORRIDOR. STILL
A CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW FLAKES TO MIX IN ACROSS THE HIGHER
SOUTHEAST RIDGES TOWARD DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE AS SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS EAST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN WESTERLY WITH DEEP DRYING
WORKING INTO REGION. NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS WITH
CLOUDS HELPING TO KEEP READINGS FROM FALLING OFF DRAMATICALLY.

18Z MODEL RUNS SHOW A BIT QUICKER EXIT OF UPPER TROUGH WITH
SURFACE HIGH MOVING TO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA BY AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO BEGIN TO BREAK OUT FOR PARTIAL SUNSHINE IN
THE AFTERNOON MOST LOCATIONS. CONTINUED QUITE COOL WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 40S FAR NORTH TO LOWER 50S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISING UP TOWARD +4C SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
POOR DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FALL ON MONDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT SERIES OF WAVES WHICH WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY.

THE FIRST WAVE LOOKS RATHER HIGHLY SHEARED AND MOISTURE STARVED ON
MONDAY...WITH A LAYER OF DRY AIR BELOW IT LIKELY TO ERODE WHAT
LITTLE BIT OF PRECIPITATION MAY BE GENERATED FROM THE WEAK
ELEVATED SATURATION AND LIFT IT MANAGES TO MUSTER. A DEEPER WAVE
WILL MOVE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FOR MONDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING ITS TILT AS IT DOES SO. THIS WILL AGAIN WORK A
BIT WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR TOWARD THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE
YIELDING A WINDOW OF REDUCED CHANCES OF RAINFALL IMMEDIATELY
PRECEDING IT. HOWEVER...BY MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...RAIN SHOULD AGAIN OVERSPREAD THE AREA SLOWLY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

YET ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH GOING
INTO TUESDAY...WHICH WILL AGAIN INCREASE THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OWING TO PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR ALOFT. IT IS THIS
WAVE THAT SEEMS TO BE THE CULPRIT IN REALLY HALTING THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN. AS IT DIVES INTO THE BASE OF
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ON TUESDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO FAVOR A
CLOSING OFF OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...IN ADVANCE OF THE
EVENTUAL CUTTING OFF OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR AREA
FROM THE POLAR JET. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP ON HOW FAR EAST THE CLOSED/CUT OFF
LOW WILL END UP AFTER MID-WEEK. CURRENT SOLUTIONS ARE AGAIN TOO
CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA TO KEEP THE MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES OUT
OF THE FORECAST UNTIL AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...EVEN
STILL...CLOUDS ARE STILL LIKELY TO REMAIN A PLAYER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE COMING WEEK. FRIES

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RAIN SHOWERS ARE ON THE WANE...BUT THINK THAT MANY TERMINALS COULD
STILL SEE A PASSING SHOWER THROUGH THE EVENING. GUSTS HAVE COME TO
AN END AT MOST TERMINALS AS WELL...WHICH WILL ALSO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ALL SITES
WILL RISE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. GUSTS ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE CONTAINED TO DUJ AND LBE.

.AVIATION /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS UPR TROFG CONTS IN THE UPR OH REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 182323
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
723 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO BASE OF UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
OHIO WILL SKIRT THE EASTERN OHIO COUNTIES WITH BULK OF SHOWERS
PASSING WELL SOUTH INTO WEST VIRGINIA. ELSEWHERE COLD NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAP THE WARM LAKES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES AND I-80 CORRIDOR. STILL
A CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW FLAKES TO MIX IN ACROSS THE HIGHER
SOUTHEAST RIDGES TOWARD DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE AS SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS EAST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN WESTERLY WITH DEEP DRYING
WORKING INTO REGION. NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS WITH
CLOUDS HELPING TO KEEP READINGS FROM FALLING OFF DRAMATICALLY.

18Z MODEL RUNS SHOW A BIT QUICKER EXIT OF UPPER TROUGH WITH
SURFACE HIGH MOVING TO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA BY AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO BEGIN TO BREAK OUT FOR PARTIAL SUNSHINE IN
THE AFTERNOON MOST LOCATIONS. CONTINUED QUITE COOL WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 40S FAR NORTH TO LOWER 50S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISING UP TOWARD +4C SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
POOR DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FALL ON MONDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT SERIES OF WAVES WHICH WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY.

THE FIRST WAVE LOOKS RATHER HIGHLY SHEARED AND MOISTURE STARVED ON
MONDAY...WITH A LAYER OF DRY AIR BELOW IT LIKELY TO ERODE WHAT
LITTLE BIT OF PRECIPITATION MAY BE GENERATED FROM THE WEAK
ELEVATED SATURATION AND LIFT IT MANAGES TO MUSTER. A DEEPER WAVE
WILL MOVE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FOR MONDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING ITS TILT AS IT DOES SO. THIS WILL AGAIN WORK A
BIT WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR TOWARD THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE
YIELDING A WINDOW OF REDUCED CHANCES OF RAINFALL IMMEDIATELY
PRECEDING IT. HOWEVER...BY MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...RAIN SHOULD AGAIN OVERSPREAD THE AREA SLOWLY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

YET ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH GOING
INTO TUESDAY...WHICH WILL AGAIN INCREASE THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OWING TO PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR ALOFT. IT IS THIS
WAVE THAT SEEMS TO BE THE CULPRIT IN REALLY HALTING THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN. AS IT DIVES INTO THE BASE OF
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ON TUESDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO FAVOR A
CLOSING OFF OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...IN ADVANCE OF THE
EVENTUAL CUTTING OFF OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR AREA
FROM THE POLAR JET. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP ON HOW FAR EAST THE CLOSED/CUT OFF
LOW WILL END UP AFTER MID-WEEK. CURRENT SOLUTIONS ARE AGAIN TOO
CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA TO KEEP THE MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES OUT
OF THE FORECAST UNTIL AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...EVEN
STILL...CLOUDS ARE STILL LIKELY TO REMAIN A PLAYER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE COMING WEEK. FRIES

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RAIN SHOWERS ARE ON THE WANE...BUT THINK THAT MANY TERMINALS COULD
STILL SEE A PASSING SHOWER THROUGH THE EVENING. GUSTS HAVE COME TO
AN END AT MOST TERMINALS AS WELL...WHICH WILL ALSO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ALL SITES
WILL RISE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. GUSTS ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE CONTAINED TO DUJ AND LBE.

.AVIATION /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS UPR TROFG CONTS IN THE UPR OH REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 182223
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
623 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO BASE OF UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
OHIO WILL SKIRT THE EASTERN OHIO COUNTIES WITH BULK OF SHOWERS
PASSING WELL SOUTH INTO WEST VIRGINIA. ELSEWHERE COLD NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAP THE WARM LAKES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES AND I-80 CORRIDOR. STILL
A CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW FLAKES TO MIX IN ACROSS THE HIGHER
SOUTHEAST RIDGES TOWARD DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE AS SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS EAST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN WESTERLY WITH DEEP DRYING
WORKING INTO REGION. NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS WITH
CLOUDS HELPING TO KEEP READINGS FROM FALLING OFF DRAMATICALLY.

18Z MODEL RUNS SHOW A BIT QUICKER EXIT OF UPPER TROUGH WITH
SURFACE HIGH MOVING TO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA BY AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO BEGIN TO BREAK OUT FOR PARTIAL SUNSHINE IN
THE AFTERNOON MOST LOCATIONS. CONTINUED QUITE COOL WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 40S FAR NORTH TO LOWER 50S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISING UP TOWARD +4C SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
POOR DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FALL ON MONDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT SERIES OF WAVES WHICH WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY.

THE FIRST WAVE LOOKS RATHER HIGHLY SHEARED AND MOISTURE STARVED ON
MONDAY...WITH A LAYER OF DRY AIR BELOW IT LIKELY TO ERODE WHAT
LITTLE BIT OF PRECIPITATION MAY BE GENERATED FROM THE WEAK
ELEVATED SATURATION AND LIFT IT MANAGES TO MUSTER. A DEEPER WAVE
WILL MOVE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FOR MONDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING ITS TILT AS IT DOES SO. THIS WILL AGAIN WORK A
BIT WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR TOWARD THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE
YIELDING A WINDOW OF REDUCED CHANCES OF RAINFALL IMMEDIATELY
PRECEDING IT. HOWEVER...BY MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...RAIN SHOULD AGAIN OVERSPREAD THE AREA SLOWLY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

YET ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH GOING
INTO TUESDAY...WHICH WILL AGAIN INCREASE THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OWING TO PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR ALOFT. IT IS THIS
WAVE THAT SEEMS TO BE THE CULPRIT IN REALLY HALTING THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN. AS IT DIVES INTO THE BASE OF
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ON TUESDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO FAVOR A
CLOSING OFF OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...IN ADVANCE OF THE
EVENTUAL CUTTING OFF OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR AREA
FROM THE POLAR JET. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP ON HOW FAR EAST THE CLOSED/CUT OFF
LOW WILL END UP AFTER MID-WEEK. CURRENT SOLUTIONS ARE AGAIN TOO
CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA TO KEEP THE MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES OUT
OF THE FORECAST UNTIL AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...EVEN
STILL...CLOUDS ARE STILL LIKELY TO REMAIN A PLAYER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE COMING WEEK. FRIES

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCT-NMRS RAIN SHWRS WILL BE SUSTAINED THIS AFTN NR AND N OF KPIT
AS SHRTWV TROF CROSSES GRTLKS RGN. NWLY SFC WIND WILL GUST 20-25KT
BFR SUBSIDING THIS EVE. MVFR CIGS XPCD RMNDR OF TDA...WITH VSBY
AND CIGS PSBLY LWR IN SHWRS.

STRATOCU WILL PERSIST TNGT AMID COLD ADVCTN AND LWRG INVERSION
HEIGHTS. CIGS LKLY WILL RMN IN MVFR CATEGORY THRU SUN MID-AFTN.

.AVIATION /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS UPR TROFG CONTS IN THE UPR OH REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS61 KPBZ 182223
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
623 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO BASE OF UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
OHIO WILL SKIRT THE EASTERN OHIO COUNTIES WITH BULK OF SHOWERS
PASSING WELL SOUTH INTO WEST VIRGINIA. ELSEWHERE COLD NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAP THE WARM LAKES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES AND I-80 CORRIDOR. STILL
A CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW FLAKES TO MIX IN ACROSS THE HIGHER
SOUTHEAST RIDGES TOWARD DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE AS SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS EAST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN WESTERLY WITH DEEP DRYING
WORKING INTO REGION. NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS WITH
CLOUDS HELPING TO KEEP READINGS FROM FALLING OFF DRAMATICALLY.

18Z MODEL RUNS SHOW A BIT QUICKER EXIT OF UPPER TROUGH WITH
SURFACE HIGH MOVING TO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA BY AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO BEGIN TO BREAK OUT FOR PARTIAL SUNSHINE IN
THE AFTERNOON MOST LOCATIONS. CONTINUED QUITE COOL WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 40S FAR NORTH TO LOWER 50S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISING UP TOWARD +4C SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
POOR DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FALL ON MONDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT SERIES OF WAVES WHICH WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY.

THE FIRST WAVE LOOKS RATHER HIGHLY SHEARED AND MOISTURE STARVED ON
MONDAY...WITH A LAYER OF DRY AIR BELOW IT LIKELY TO ERODE WHAT
LITTLE BIT OF PRECIPITATION MAY BE GENERATED FROM THE WEAK
ELEVATED SATURATION AND LIFT IT MANAGES TO MUSTER. A DEEPER WAVE
WILL MOVE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FOR MONDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING ITS TILT AS IT DOES SO. THIS WILL AGAIN WORK A
BIT WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR TOWARD THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE
YIELDING A WINDOW OF REDUCED CHANCES OF RAINFALL IMMEDIATELY
PRECEDING IT. HOWEVER...BY MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...RAIN SHOULD AGAIN OVERSPREAD THE AREA SLOWLY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

YET ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH GOING
INTO TUESDAY...WHICH WILL AGAIN INCREASE THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OWING TO PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR ALOFT. IT IS THIS
WAVE THAT SEEMS TO BE THE CULPRIT IN REALLY HALTING THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN. AS IT DIVES INTO THE BASE OF
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ON TUESDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO FAVOR A
CLOSING OFF OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...IN ADVANCE OF THE
EVENTUAL CUTTING OFF OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR AREA
FROM THE POLAR JET. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP ON HOW FAR EAST THE CLOSED/CUT OFF
LOW WILL END UP AFTER MID-WEEK. CURRENT SOLUTIONS ARE AGAIN TOO
CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA TO KEEP THE MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES OUT
OF THE FORECAST UNTIL AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...EVEN
STILL...CLOUDS ARE STILL LIKELY TO REMAIN A PLAYER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE COMING WEEK. FRIES

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCT-NMRS RAIN SHWRS WILL BE SUSTAINED THIS AFTN NR AND N OF KPIT
AS SHRTWV TROF CROSSES GRTLKS RGN. NWLY SFC WIND WILL GUST 20-25KT
BFR SUBSIDING THIS EVE. MVFR CIGS XPCD RMNDR OF TDA...WITH VSBY
AND CIGS PSBLY LWR IN SHWRS.

STRATOCU WILL PERSIST TNGT AMID COLD ADVCTN AND LWRG INVERSION
HEIGHTS. CIGS LKLY WILL RMN IN MVFR CATEGORY THRU SUN MID-AFTN.

.AVIATION /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS UPR TROFG CONTS IN THE UPR OH REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181814
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
214 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. SHOWERS
WILL END LATE TONIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
CDFNT HAS CROSSED THE FCST AREA...WITH TEMPS GENLY XPCD TO INCR
VERY LITTLE RMNDR OF TDA OWING TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVCTN OFFSET
ONLY BY A FEW BREAKS IN CLD CVR. GUSTY NWLY WINDS XPCD TO CONT
THRU THIS EVE AS STEEPENING LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES PROMOTE MIXING.

SHRTWV TROF WILL SUPPORT SCT-NMRS SHWRS THIS AFTN AND EVE...SPCLY
NRN HALF OF FCST AREA. PROLONGED NWLY FLOW WILL INCR UPSLOPE
COMPONENT OF WIND ON RDGS...WHERE POPS WERE INCRD TO CATEGORICAL
LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE. ALTHOUGH RAIN AMTS WILL NOT BE HIGH...PCPN
XPCD TO BE MEASURABLE.

CLD CVR WILL PERSIST MUCH OF TNGT BUT MAY BGN TO CLR EARLY SUN
MRNG IN ERN OH ZONES. GIVEN LATE DEPARTURE OF ANY CLDS...FROST
DVLPMT APPEARS UNLKLY ATTM. PATCHY FROST MAY BE INCLD WITH LATER
FCST. OTHERWISE...MINIMA XPCD TO RMN IN MID-UPR 30S MOST AREAS.

PCPN IN RDG ZONES WILL CONT INTO THIS EVE BUT WILL BGN TO WANE AS
UPR SUPPORT PROGRESSES EWD. PREV SHIFT HAD CONFIDENCE THAT PCPN
WOULD END BY 06Z...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS VERY LGT PCPN MAY
CONT THRU LATE TNGT. AFTER 06Z...THERE MAY BE A FEW SNOWFLAKES
MIXED IN WITH ANY LINGERING RAIN...BUT NO SGFNT ACCUMS XPCD.

SFC HIPRES WILL TRANSITION EWD ON SUN...WITH FLOW BCMG LGT TO SLY.
THIS SLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE MODEST INCR IN TEMPS FOR WRN ZONES BY
SUN AFTN...ALTHOUGH SUN GENLY WILL NOT BE MUCH WARMER THAN TDA
GIVEN CLD CVR LINGERING INTO MID-DAY. ONCE LOW CLDS VACATE...HIGH
CLDS XPCD TO INCR IN CVRG AS A JET MAX DVLPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SHRTWV TROF APRCHG FROM NW.

SFC HIPRES WILL ATTEMPT TO ASSERT ITSELF SUN EVE BUT WILL BE
SUPPLANTED SWD LATE SUN NGT AS H5 TROF DIGS INTO GRTLKS RGN. SLY
WIND AND INCRD CLD CVR FROM MID-LVL JET WILL RETARD COOLING SUN
NGT AND WILL PREVENT FROST FROM BEING A CONCERN.

PCPN CHCS WILL INCR LATE SUN NGT AS MID-LVL SATURATED LYR DPNS AND
LWRS. POPS WERE LWRD SUN EVE...BUT WERE INCRD AFTER 20/06Z AS LGT
PCPN XPCD TO DVLP AND SPREAD SEWD INTO FAR WRN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISING UP TOWARD +4C SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
POOR DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FALL ON MONDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT SERIES OF WAVES WHICH WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY.

THE FIRST WAVE LOOKS RATHER HIGHLY SHEARED AND MOISTURE STARVED ON
MONDAY...WITH A LAYER OF DRY AIR BELOW IT LIKELY TO ERODE WHAT
LITTLE BIT OF PRECIPITATION MAY BE GENERATED FROM THE WEAK
ELEVATED SATURATION AND LIFT IT MANAGES TO MUSTER. A DEEPER WAVE
WILL MOVE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FOR MONDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING ITS TILT AS IT DOES SO. THIS WILL AGAIN WORK A
BIT WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR TOWARD THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE
YIELDING A WINDOW OF REDUCED CHANCES OF RAINFALL IMMEDIATELY
PRECEDING IT. HOWEVER...BY MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...RAIN SHOULD AGAIN OVERSPREAD THE AREA SLOWLY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

YET ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH GOING
INTO TUESDAY...WHICH WILL AGAIN INCREASE THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OWING TO PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR ALOFT. IT IS THIS
WAVE THAT SEEMS TO BE THE CULPRIT IN REALLY HALTING THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN. AS IT DIVES INTO THE BASE OF
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ON TUESDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO FAVOR A
CLOSING OFF OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...IN ADVANCE OF THE
EVENTUAL CUTTING OFF OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR AREA
FROM THE POLAR JET. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP ON HOW FAR EAST THE CLOSED/CUT OFF
LOW WILL END UP AFTER MID-WEEK. CURRENT SOLUTIONS ARE AGAIN TOO
CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA TO KEEP THE MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES OUT
OF THE FORECAST UNTIL AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...EVEN
STILL...CLOUDS ARE STILL LIKELY TO REMAIN A PLAYER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE COMING WEEK. FRIES

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCT-NMRS RAIN SHWRS WILL BE SUSTAINED THIS AFTN NR AND N OF KPIT
AS SHRTWV TROF CROSSES GRTLKS RGN. NWLY SFC WIND WILL GUST 20-25KT
BFR SUBSIDING THIS EVE. MVFR CIGS XPCD RMNDR OF TDA...WITH VSBY
AND CIGS PSBLY LWR IN SHWRS.

STRATOCU WILL PERSIST TNGT AMID COLD ADVCTN AND LWRG INVERSION
HEIGHTS. CIGS LKLY WILL RMN IN MVFR CATEGORY THRU SUN MID-AFTN.

.AVIATION /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS UPR TROFG CONTS IN THE UPR OH REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181814
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
214 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. SHOWERS
WILL END LATE TONIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
CDFNT HAS CROSSED THE FCST AREA...WITH TEMPS GENLY XPCD TO INCR
VERY LITTLE RMNDR OF TDA OWING TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVCTN OFFSET
ONLY BY A FEW BREAKS IN CLD CVR. GUSTY NWLY WINDS XPCD TO CONT
THRU THIS EVE AS STEEPENING LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES PROMOTE MIXING.

SHRTWV TROF WILL SUPPORT SCT-NMRS SHWRS THIS AFTN AND EVE...SPCLY
NRN HALF OF FCST AREA. PROLONGED NWLY FLOW WILL INCR UPSLOPE
COMPONENT OF WIND ON RDGS...WHERE POPS WERE INCRD TO CATEGORICAL
LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE. ALTHOUGH RAIN AMTS WILL NOT BE HIGH...PCPN
XPCD TO BE MEASURABLE.

CLD CVR WILL PERSIST MUCH OF TNGT BUT MAY BGN TO CLR EARLY SUN
MRNG IN ERN OH ZONES. GIVEN LATE DEPARTURE OF ANY CLDS...FROST
DVLPMT APPEARS UNLKLY ATTM. PATCHY FROST MAY BE INCLD WITH LATER
FCST. OTHERWISE...MINIMA XPCD TO RMN IN MID-UPR 30S MOST AREAS.

PCPN IN RDG ZONES WILL CONT INTO THIS EVE BUT WILL BGN TO WANE AS
UPR SUPPORT PROGRESSES EWD. PREV SHIFT HAD CONFIDENCE THAT PCPN
WOULD END BY 06Z...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS VERY LGT PCPN MAY
CONT THRU LATE TNGT. AFTER 06Z...THERE MAY BE A FEW SNOWFLAKES
MIXED IN WITH ANY LINGERING RAIN...BUT NO SGFNT ACCUMS XPCD.

SFC HIPRES WILL TRANSITION EWD ON SUN...WITH FLOW BCMG LGT TO SLY.
THIS SLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE MODEST INCR IN TEMPS FOR WRN ZONES BY
SUN AFTN...ALTHOUGH SUN GENLY WILL NOT BE MUCH WARMER THAN TDA
GIVEN CLD CVR LINGERING INTO MID-DAY. ONCE LOW CLDS VACATE...HIGH
CLDS XPCD TO INCR IN CVRG AS A JET MAX DVLPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SHRTWV TROF APRCHG FROM NW.

SFC HIPRES WILL ATTEMPT TO ASSERT ITSELF SUN EVE BUT WILL BE
SUPPLANTED SWD LATE SUN NGT AS H5 TROF DIGS INTO GRTLKS RGN. SLY
WIND AND INCRD CLD CVR FROM MID-LVL JET WILL RETARD COOLING SUN
NGT AND WILL PREVENT FROST FROM BEING A CONCERN.

PCPN CHCS WILL INCR LATE SUN NGT AS MID-LVL SATURATED LYR DPNS AND
LWRS. POPS WERE LWRD SUN EVE...BUT WERE INCRD AFTER 20/06Z AS LGT
PCPN XPCD TO DVLP AND SPREAD SEWD INTO FAR WRN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISING UP TOWARD +4C SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
POOR DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FALL ON MONDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT SERIES OF WAVES WHICH WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY.

THE FIRST WAVE LOOKS RATHER HIGHLY SHEARED AND MOISTURE STARVED ON
MONDAY...WITH A LAYER OF DRY AIR BELOW IT LIKELY TO ERODE WHAT
LITTLE BIT OF PRECIPITATION MAY BE GENERATED FROM THE WEAK
ELEVATED SATURATION AND LIFT IT MANAGES TO MUSTER. A DEEPER WAVE
WILL MOVE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FOR MONDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING ITS TILT AS IT DOES SO. THIS WILL AGAIN WORK A
BIT WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR TOWARD THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE
YIELDING A WINDOW OF REDUCED CHANCES OF RAINFALL IMMEDIATELY
PRECEDING IT. HOWEVER...BY MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...RAIN SHOULD AGAIN OVERSPREAD THE AREA SLOWLY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

YET ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH GOING
INTO TUESDAY...WHICH WILL AGAIN INCREASE THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OWING TO PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR ALOFT. IT IS THIS
WAVE THAT SEEMS TO BE THE CULPRIT IN REALLY HALTING THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN. AS IT DIVES INTO THE BASE OF
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ON TUESDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO FAVOR A
CLOSING OFF OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...IN ADVANCE OF THE
EVENTUAL CUTTING OFF OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR AREA
FROM THE POLAR JET. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP ON HOW FAR EAST THE CLOSED/CUT OFF
LOW WILL END UP AFTER MID-WEEK. CURRENT SOLUTIONS ARE AGAIN TOO
CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA TO KEEP THE MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES OUT
OF THE FORECAST UNTIL AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...EVEN
STILL...CLOUDS ARE STILL LIKELY TO REMAIN A PLAYER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE COMING WEEK. FRIES

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCT-NMRS RAIN SHWRS WILL BE SUSTAINED THIS AFTN NR AND N OF KPIT
AS SHRTWV TROF CROSSES GRTLKS RGN. NWLY SFC WIND WILL GUST 20-25KT
BFR SUBSIDING THIS EVE. MVFR CIGS XPCD RMNDR OF TDA...WITH VSBY
AND CIGS PSBLY LWR IN SHWRS.

STRATOCU WILL PERSIST TNGT AMID COLD ADVCTN AND LWRG INVERSION
HEIGHTS. CIGS LKLY WILL RMN IN MVFR CATEGORY THRU SUN MID-AFTN.

.AVIATION /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS UPR TROFG CONTS IN THE UPR OH REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181715
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
115 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. SHOWERS
WILL END LATE TONIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CDFNT HAS CROSSED THE FCST AREA...WITH TEMPS GENLY XPCD TO INCR
VERY LITTLE RMNDR OF TDA OWING TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVCTN OFFSET
ONLY BY A FEW BREAKS IN CLD CVR. GUSTY NWLY WINDS XPCD TO CONT
THRU THIS EVE AS STEEPENING LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES PROMOTE MIXING.

SHRTWV TROF WILL SUPPORT SCT-NMRS SHWRS THIS AFTN AND EVE...SPCLY
NRN HALF OF FCST AREA. PROLONGED NWLY FLOW WILL INCR UPSLOPE
COMPONENT OF WIND ON RDGS...WHERE POPS WERE INCRD TO CATEGORICAL
LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE. ALTHOUGH RAIN AMTS WILL NOT BE HIGH...PCPN
XPCD TO BE MEASURABLE.

CLD CVR WILL PERSIST MUCH OF TNGT BUT MAY BGN TO CLR EARLY SUN
MRNG IN ERN OH ZONES. GIVEN LATE DEPARTURE OF ANY CLDS...FROST
DVLPMT APPEARS UNLKLY ATTM. PATCHY FROST MAY BE INCLD WITH LATER
FCST. OTHERWISE...MINIMA XPCD TO RMN IN MID-UPR 30S MOST AREAS.

PCPN IN RDG ZONES WILL CONT INTO THIS EVE BUT WILL BGN TO WANE AS
UPR SUPPORT PROGRESSES EWD. PREV SHIFT HAD CONFIDENCE THAT PCPN
WOULD END BY 06Z...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS VERY LGT PCPN MAY
CONT THRU LATE TNGT. AFTER 06Z...THERE MAY BE A FEW SNOWFLAKES
MIXED IN WITH ANY LINGERING RAIN...BUT NO SGFNT ACCUMS XPCD.

SFC HIPRES WILL TRANSITION EWD ON SUN...WITH FLOW BCMG LGT TO SLY.
THIS SLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE MODEST INCR IN TEMPS FOR WRN ZONES BY
SUN AFTN...ALTHOUGH SUN GENLY WILL NOT BE MUCH WARMER THAN TDA
GIVEN CLD CVR LINGERING INTO MID-DAY. ONCE LOW CLDS VACATE...HIGH
CLDS XPCD TO INCR IN CVRG AS A JET MAX DVLPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SHRTWV TROF APRCHG FROM NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIPRES WILL ATTEMPT TO ASSERT ITSELF SUN EVE BUT WILL BE
SUPPLANTED SWD LATE SUN NGT AS H5 TROF DIGS INTO GRTLKS RGN. SLY
WIND AND INCRD CLD CVR FROM MID-LVL JET WILL RETARD COOLING SUN
NGT AND WILL PREVENT FROST FROM BEING A CONCERN.

PCPN CHCS WILL INCR LATE SUN NGT AS MID-LVL SATURATED LYR DPNS AND
LWRS. POPS WERE LWRD SUN EVE...BUT WERE INCRD AFTER 20/06Z AS LGT
PCPN XPCD TO DVLP AND SPREAD SEWD INTO FAR WRN ZONES.

THE FIRST WAVE CROSSES MONDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING A SHOWER TO
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT WAVE WILL BE
PUSHING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL REINTRODUCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH LATE MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A DIFFERENT SOLUTION
THEN PREVIOUS RUNS ON WHERE THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW WILL END UP. IDEA NOW IS THAT SYSTEM WILL CUTOFF FURTHER
EAST...PROMOTING A MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCT-NMRS RAIN SHWRS WILL BE SUSTAINED THIS AFTN NR AND N OF KPIT
AS SHRTWV TROF CROSSES GRTLKS RGN. NWLY SFC WIND WILL GUST 20-25KT
BFR SUBSIDING THIS EVE. MVFR CIGS XPCD RMNDR OF TDA...WITH VSBY
AND CIGS PSBLY LWR IN SHWRS.

STRATOCU WILL PERSIST TNGT AMID COLD ADVCTN AND LWRG INVERSION
HEIGHTS. CIGS LKLY WILL RMN IN MVFR CATEGORY THRU SUN MID-AFTN.

.AVIATION /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS UPR TROFG CONTS IN THE UPR OH REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KRAMAR






000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181715
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
115 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. SHOWERS
WILL END LATE TONIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CDFNT HAS CROSSED THE FCST AREA...WITH TEMPS GENLY XPCD TO INCR
VERY LITTLE RMNDR OF TDA OWING TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVCTN OFFSET
ONLY BY A FEW BREAKS IN CLD CVR. GUSTY NWLY WINDS XPCD TO CONT
THRU THIS EVE AS STEEPENING LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES PROMOTE MIXING.

SHRTWV TROF WILL SUPPORT SCT-NMRS SHWRS THIS AFTN AND EVE...SPCLY
NRN HALF OF FCST AREA. PROLONGED NWLY FLOW WILL INCR UPSLOPE
COMPONENT OF WIND ON RDGS...WHERE POPS WERE INCRD TO CATEGORICAL
LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE. ALTHOUGH RAIN AMTS WILL NOT BE HIGH...PCPN
XPCD TO BE MEASURABLE.

CLD CVR WILL PERSIST MUCH OF TNGT BUT MAY BGN TO CLR EARLY SUN
MRNG IN ERN OH ZONES. GIVEN LATE DEPARTURE OF ANY CLDS...FROST
DVLPMT APPEARS UNLKLY ATTM. PATCHY FROST MAY BE INCLD WITH LATER
FCST. OTHERWISE...MINIMA XPCD TO RMN IN MID-UPR 30S MOST AREAS.

PCPN IN RDG ZONES WILL CONT INTO THIS EVE BUT WILL BGN TO WANE AS
UPR SUPPORT PROGRESSES EWD. PREV SHIFT HAD CONFIDENCE THAT PCPN
WOULD END BY 06Z...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS VERY LGT PCPN MAY
CONT THRU LATE TNGT. AFTER 06Z...THERE MAY BE A FEW SNOWFLAKES
MIXED IN WITH ANY LINGERING RAIN...BUT NO SGFNT ACCUMS XPCD.

SFC HIPRES WILL TRANSITION EWD ON SUN...WITH FLOW BCMG LGT TO SLY.
THIS SLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE MODEST INCR IN TEMPS FOR WRN ZONES BY
SUN AFTN...ALTHOUGH SUN GENLY WILL NOT BE MUCH WARMER THAN TDA
GIVEN CLD CVR LINGERING INTO MID-DAY. ONCE LOW CLDS VACATE...HIGH
CLDS XPCD TO INCR IN CVRG AS A JET MAX DVLPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SHRTWV TROF APRCHG FROM NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIPRES WILL ATTEMPT TO ASSERT ITSELF SUN EVE BUT WILL BE
SUPPLANTED SWD LATE SUN NGT AS H5 TROF DIGS INTO GRTLKS RGN. SLY
WIND AND INCRD CLD CVR FROM MID-LVL JET WILL RETARD COOLING SUN
NGT AND WILL PREVENT FROST FROM BEING A CONCERN.

PCPN CHCS WILL INCR LATE SUN NGT AS MID-LVL SATURATED LYR DPNS AND
LWRS. POPS WERE LWRD SUN EVE...BUT WERE INCRD AFTER 20/06Z AS LGT
PCPN XPCD TO DVLP AND SPREAD SEWD INTO FAR WRN ZONES.

THE FIRST WAVE CROSSES MONDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING A SHOWER TO
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT WAVE WILL BE
PUSHING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL REINTRODUCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH LATE MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A DIFFERENT SOLUTION
THEN PREVIOUS RUNS ON WHERE THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW WILL END UP. IDEA NOW IS THAT SYSTEM WILL CUTOFF FURTHER
EAST...PROMOTING A MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCT-NMRS RAIN SHWRS WILL BE SUSTAINED THIS AFTN NR AND N OF KPIT
AS SHRTWV TROF CROSSES GRTLKS RGN. NWLY SFC WIND WILL GUST 20-25KT
BFR SUBSIDING THIS EVE. MVFR CIGS XPCD RMNDR OF TDA...WITH VSBY
AND CIGS PSBLY LWR IN SHWRS.

STRATOCU WILL PERSIST TNGT AMID COLD ADVCTN AND LWRG INVERSION
HEIGHTS. CIGS LKLY WILL RMN IN MVFR CATEGORY THRU SUN MID-AFTN.

.AVIATION /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS UPR TROFG CONTS IN THE UPR OH REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KRAMAR







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