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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310919
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
519 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS AND SPARSE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAKENING AND OPENING UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS PRIMARILY TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. A
WEAKENING DEFORMATION ZONE WILL PASS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AND MORE SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...HOWEVER THIS
WILL BE A RATHER FLEETING PASSAGE AS THE SYSTEM IS QUICKLY
WEAKENING AND SHEARING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE RIDGES. IT WILL
LARGELY BE FOLLOWING THE MODESTLY COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE
THAT TRANSITIONS TOWARD NEW JERSEY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS
WILL LEAVE OUR AREA IN AN AREA OF WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGHING AS AN
UPPER RIDGE POPS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES LATER IN THE DAY. THIS WILL STRETCH OUT WHAT LITTLE SHEARED
VORTICITY THERE IS LARGELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70. DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LARGELY REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS
CORRIDOR...THUS THIS IS WHERE THE BEST POPS WERE CONCENTRATED ON
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DEEPER MOISTURE AND
EXCEEDINGLY WEAK FORCING MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO OVERCOME WARM AIR
ALOFT AND A GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION DUE
TO EXCEEDINGLY LOW SHEAR VALUES THROUGH THE DAY.
ELSEWHERE...NOTHING MORE THAN LOW-TOPPED WEAK PULSE CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED AND ONLY MID-AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WERE CARRIED FOR THIS EVENTUALITY.

EVEN THOUGH SUNSHINE WILL BE UNLIKELY TO BE PERVASIVE UNTIL LATER
IN THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS AROUND
THE OPENING UPPER LOW...850 MB TEMPERATURES JUMP TOWARD
+18C...WHICH MEANS THAT GENERALLY MIDDLE TO A FEW UPPER 80S WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON. THIS IS EVEN WITH POOR MIXING.
HOWEVER...THE TEMPERATURE WILL ONLY BE PART OF THE EQUATION. DUE
TO DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY LARGELY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LITTLE CHANCE
OF DRY AIR BEING ENTRAINED DOWNWARD DUE TO POOR MIXING
TODAY...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY RUN UP TOWARD 90F BY
AFTERNOON IN MANY PLACES.

COOLING TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE A SLOW PROCESS. AMPLE BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE SEEMS POISED TO INTERACT A VIRTUALLY CLEAR SKY WITH
LITTLE WIND. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL HEATING IN URBAN AREAS SEEMS
LIKELY TO KEEP LOWS IN THE CITY CENTER NEAR 70F AGAIN...WHILE
OUTLYING AREAS SATURATE TO THE DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
60S YET AGAIN WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE
RIVER VALLEYS. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORS THE BUILDING OF A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY. DESPITE THIS...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
WITH WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPS IN PLACE...KEEPING POPS LIMITED TO
SLIGHT REALM...EVEN AS AN EMBEDDED WEAK TROF PASSES THROUGH THE
RIDGE TUESDAY EVENING. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN AMPLIFIES BY MID-WEEK
REINFORCING THE TREND TO DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS. TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE IMPRESSIVE EASTERN
CONUS RIDGE FURTHER AMPLIFIES REACHING INTO EASTERN CANADA. CANNOT
RULE OUT DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA AND RETURN
FLOW ESTABLISHES A MOISTURE FEED FROM THE MID- ATLANTIC.
STILL...LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL PLAY OUT LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...NEARLY
THE SAME EVERYDAY...SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE NEXT REAL CHANCE OF A RAIN PRODUCING SYSTEM FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA COULD COME WITH A FRONT SLATED SOMETIME EARLY
TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TAX

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR AND SOME IFR FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE UNDER
VERY WEAK FLOW AND AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD
BURN OFF TOWARD 14Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
THEIR COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED ENOUGH SO AS NOT TO MENTION AT
THIS TIME. FRIES

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR
PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310919
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
519 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS AND SPARSE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAKENING AND OPENING UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS PRIMARILY TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. A
WEAKENING DEFORMATION ZONE WILL PASS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AND MORE SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...HOWEVER THIS
WILL BE A RATHER FLEETING PASSAGE AS THE SYSTEM IS QUICKLY
WEAKENING AND SHEARING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE RIDGES. IT WILL
LARGELY BE FOLLOWING THE MODESTLY COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE
THAT TRANSITIONS TOWARD NEW JERSEY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS
WILL LEAVE OUR AREA IN AN AREA OF WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGHING AS AN
UPPER RIDGE POPS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES LATER IN THE DAY. THIS WILL STRETCH OUT WHAT LITTLE SHEARED
VORTICITY THERE IS LARGELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70. DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LARGELY REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS
CORRIDOR...THUS THIS IS WHERE THE BEST POPS WERE CONCENTRATED ON
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DEEPER MOISTURE AND
EXCEEDINGLY WEAK FORCING MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO OVERCOME WARM AIR
ALOFT AND A GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION DUE
TO EXCEEDINGLY LOW SHEAR VALUES THROUGH THE DAY.
ELSEWHERE...NOTHING MORE THAN LOW-TOPPED WEAK PULSE CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED AND ONLY MID-AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WERE CARRIED FOR THIS EVENTUALITY.

EVEN THOUGH SUNSHINE WILL BE UNLIKELY TO BE PERVASIVE UNTIL LATER
IN THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS AROUND
THE OPENING UPPER LOW...850 MB TEMPERATURES JUMP TOWARD
+18C...WHICH MEANS THAT GENERALLY MIDDLE TO A FEW UPPER 80S WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON. THIS IS EVEN WITH POOR MIXING.
HOWEVER...THE TEMPERATURE WILL ONLY BE PART OF THE EQUATION. DUE
TO DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY LARGELY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LITTLE CHANCE
OF DRY AIR BEING ENTRAINED DOWNWARD DUE TO POOR MIXING
TODAY...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY RUN UP TOWARD 90F BY
AFTERNOON IN MANY PLACES.

COOLING TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE A SLOW PROCESS. AMPLE BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE SEEMS POISED TO INTERACT A VIRTUALLY CLEAR SKY WITH
LITTLE WIND. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL HEATING IN URBAN AREAS SEEMS
LIKELY TO KEEP LOWS IN THE CITY CENTER NEAR 70F AGAIN...WHILE
OUTLYING AREAS SATURATE TO THE DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
60S YET AGAIN WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE
RIVER VALLEYS. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORS THE BUILDING OF A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY. DESPITE THIS...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
WITH WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPS IN PLACE...KEEPING POPS LIMITED TO
SLIGHT REALM...EVEN AS AN EMBEDDED WEAK TROF PASSES THROUGH THE
RIDGE TUESDAY EVENING. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN AMPLIFIES BY MID-WEEK
REINFORCING THE TREND TO DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS. TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE IMPRESSIVE EASTERN
CONUS RIDGE FURTHER AMPLIFIES REACHING INTO EASTERN CANADA. CANNOT
RULE OUT DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA AND RETURN
FLOW ESTABLISHES A MOISTURE FEED FROM THE MID- ATLANTIC.
STILL...LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL PLAY OUT LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...NEARLY
THE SAME EVERYDAY...SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE NEXT REAL CHANCE OF A RAIN PRODUCING SYSTEM FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA COULD COME WITH A FRONT SLATED SOMETIME EARLY
TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TAX

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR AND SOME IFR FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE UNDER
VERY WEAK FLOW AND AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD
BURN OFF TOWARD 14Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
THEIR COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED ENOUGH SO AS NOT TO MENTION AT
THIS TIME. FRIES

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR
PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310744
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
334 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS AND SPARSE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAKENING AND OPENING UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS PRIMARILY TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL
LARGELY FOLLOW THE WEAKLY COUPLE UPPER JET STRUCTURE THAT
TRANSITIONS TOWARD NEW JERSEY AT THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS WILL
LEAVE OUR AREA IN AN AREA OF WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGHING AS AN UPPER
RIDGE POPS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL STRETCH OUT WHAT LITTLE SHEARED
VORTICITY THERE IS LARGELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70. DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LARGELY REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS
CORRIDOR...THUS THIS IS WERE LOW END POPS WERE CONCENTRATED ON FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DEEPER MOISTURE AND EXCEEDINGLY
WEAK FORCING MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO OVERCOME WARM AIR ALOFT AND A
GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION DUE TO
EXCEEDINGLY LOW SHEAR VALUES THROUGH THE DAY.

EVEN THOUGH SUNSHINE WILL BE UNLIKELY TO BE PERVASIVE UNTIL LATER
IN THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS AROUND
THE OPENING UPPER LOW...850 MB TEMPERATURES JUMP TOWARD
+18C...WHICH MEANS THAT GENERALLY MIDDLE TO A FEW UPPER 80S WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON. THIS IS EVEN WITH POOR MIXING.
HOWEVER...THE TEMPERATURE WILL ONLY BE PART OF THE EQUATION. DUE
TO DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY LARGELY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LITTLE CHANCE
OF DRY AIR BEING ENTRAINED DOWNWARD DUE TO POOR MIXING
TODAY...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY RUN UP TOWARD 90F BY
AFTERNOON IN MANY PLACES.

COOLING TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE A SLOW PROCESS. AMPLE BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE SEEMS POISED TO INTERACT A VIRTUALLY CLEAR SKY WITH
LITTLE WIND. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL HEATING IN URBAN AREAS SEEMS
LIKELY TO KEEP LOWS IN THE CITY CENTER NEAR 70F AGAIN...WHILE
OUTLYING AREAS SATURATE TO THE DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
60S YET AGAIN WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE
RIVER VALLEYS. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORS THE BUILDING OF A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY. DESPITE THIS...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WITH
WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPS IN PLACE...KEEPING POPS LIMITED TO SLIGHT
REALM...EVEN AS AN EMBEDDED WEAK TROF PASSES THROUGH THE RIDGE
TUESDAY EVENING. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN AMPLIFIES BY MID-WEEK RE-
INFORCING THE TREND TO DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE IMPRESSIVE EASTERN
CONUS RIDGE FURTHER AMPLIFIES REACHING INTO EASTERN CANADA. CANNOT
RULE OUT DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA AND RETURN FLOW
ESTABLISHES A MOISTURE FEED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC.
STILL...LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL PLAY OUT LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...NEARLY
THE SAME EVERYDAY...SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE NEXT REAL CHANCE OF A RAIN PRODUCING SYSTEM FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA COULD COME WITH A FRONT SLATED SOMETIME EARLY
TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR AND SOME IFR FOG SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WEAK FLOW. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF TOWARD
14Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR
PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310744
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
334 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS AND SPARSE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAKENING AND OPENING UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS PRIMARILY TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL
LARGELY FOLLOW THE WEAKLY COUPLE UPPER JET STRUCTURE THAT
TRANSITIONS TOWARD NEW JERSEY AT THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS WILL
LEAVE OUR AREA IN AN AREA OF WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGHING AS AN UPPER
RIDGE POPS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL STRETCH OUT WHAT LITTLE SHEARED
VORTICITY THERE IS LARGELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70. DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LARGELY REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS
CORRIDOR...THUS THIS IS WERE LOW END POPS WERE CONCENTRATED ON FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DEEPER MOISTURE AND EXCEEDINGLY
WEAK FORCING MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO OVERCOME WARM AIR ALOFT AND A
GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION DUE TO
EXCEEDINGLY LOW SHEAR VALUES THROUGH THE DAY.

EVEN THOUGH SUNSHINE WILL BE UNLIKELY TO BE PERVASIVE UNTIL LATER
IN THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS AROUND
THE OPENING UPPER LOW...850 MB TEMPERATURES JUMP TOWARD
+18C...WHICH MEANS THAT GENERALLY MIDDLE TO A FEW UPPER 80S WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON. THIS IS EVEN WITH POOR MIXING.
HOWEVER...THE TEMPERATURE WILL ONLY BE PART OF THE EQUATION. DUE
TO DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY LARGELY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LITTLE CHANCE
OF DRY AIR BEING ENTRAINED DOWNWARD DUE TO POOR MIXING
TODAY...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY RUN UP TOWARD 90F BY
AFTERNOON IN MANY PLACES.

COOLING TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE A SLOW PROCESS. AMPLE BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE SEEMS POISED TO INTERACT A VIRTUALLY CLEAR SKY WITH
LITTLE WIND. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL HEATING IN URBAN AREAS SEEMS
LIKELY TO KEEP LOWS IN THE CITY CENTER NEAR 70F AGAIN...WHILE
OUTLYING AREAS SATURATE TO THE DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
60S YET AGAIN WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE
RIVER VALLEYS. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORS THE BUILDING OF A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY. DESPITE THIS...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WITH
WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPS IN PLACE...KEEPING POPS LIMITED TO SLIGHT
REALM...EVEN AS AN EMBEDDED WEAK TROF PASSES THROUGH THE RIDGE
TUESDAY EVENING. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN AMPLIFIES BY MID-WEEK RE-
INFORCING THE TREND TO DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE IMPRESSIVE EASTERN
CONUS RIDGE FURTHER AMPLIFIES REACHING INTO EASTERN CANADA. CANNOT
RULE OUT DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA AND RETURN FLOW
ESTABLISHES A MOISTURE FEED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC.
STILL...LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL PLAY OUT LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...NEARLY
THE SAME EVERYDAY...SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE NEXT REAL CHANCE OF A RAIN PRODUCING SYSTEM FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA COULD COME WITH A FRONT SLATED SOMETIME EARLY
TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR AND SOME IFR FOG SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WEAK FLOW. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF TOWARD
14Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR
PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310744
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
334 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS AND SPARSE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAKENING AND OPENING UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS PRIMARILY TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL
LARGELY FOLLOW THE WEAKLY COUPLE UPPER JET STRUCTURE THAT
TRANSITIONS TOWARD NEW JERSEY AT THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS WILL
LEAVE OUR AREA IN AN AREA OF WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGHING AS AN UPPER
RIDGE POPS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL STRETCH OUT WHAT LITTLE SHEARED
VORTICITY THERE IS LARGELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70. DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LARGELY REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS
CORRIDOR...THUS THIS IS WERE LOW END POPS WERE CONCENTRATED ON FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DEEPER MOISTURE AND EXCEEDINGLY
WEAK FORCING MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO OVERCOME WARM AIR ALOFT AND A
GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION DUE TO
EXCEEDINGLY LOW SHEAR VALUES THROUGH THE DAY.

EVEN THOUGH SUNSHINE WILL BE UNLIKELY TO BE PERVASIVE UNTIL LATER
IN THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS AROUND
THE OPENING UPPER LOW...850 MB TEMPERATURES JUMP TOWARD
+18C...WHICH MEANS THAT GENERALLY MIDDLE TO A FEW UPPER 80S WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON. THIS IS EVEN WITH POOR MIXING.
HOWEVER...THE TEMPERATURE WILL ONLY BE PART OF THE EQUATION. DUE
TO DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY LARGELY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LITTLE CHANCE
OF DRY AIR BEING ENTRAINED DOWNWARD DUE TO POOR MIXING
TODAY...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY RUN UP TOWARD 90F BY
AFTERNOON IN MANY PLACES.

COOLING TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE A SLOW PROCESS. AMPLE BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE SEEMS POISED TO INTERACT A VIRTUALLY CLEAR SKY WITH
LITTLE WIND. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL HEATING IN URBAN AREAS SEEMS
LIKELY TO KEEP LOWS IN THE CITY CENTER NEAR 70F AGAIN...WHILE
OUTLYING AREAS SATURATE TO THE DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
60S YET AGAIN WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE
RIVER VALLEYS. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORS THE BUILDING OF A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY. DESPITE THIS...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WITH
WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPS IN PLACE...KEEPING POPS LIMITED TO SLIGHT
REALM...EVEN AS AN EMBEDDED WEAK TROF PASSES THROUGH THE RIDGE
TUESDAY EVENING. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN AMPLIFIES BY MID-WEEK RE-
INFORCING THE TREND TO DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE IMPRESSIVE EASTERN
CONUS RIDGE FURTHER AMPLIFIES REACHING INTO EASTERN CANADA. CANNOT
RULE OUT DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA AND RETURN FLOW
ESTABLISHES A MOISTURE FEED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC.
STILL...LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL PLAY OUT LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...NEARLY
THE SAME EVERYDAY...SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE NEXT REAL CHANCE OF A RAIN PRODUCING SYSTEM FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA COULD COME WITH A FRONT SLATED SOMETIME EARLY
TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR AND SOME IFR FOG SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WEAK FLOW. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF TOWARD
14Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR
PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310744
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
334 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS AND SPARSE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAKENING AND OPENING UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS PRIMARILY TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL
LARGELY FOLLOW THE WEAKLY COUPLE UPPER JET STRUCTURE THAT
TRANSITIONS TOWARD NEW JERSEY AT THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS WILL
LEAVE OUR AREA IN AN AREA OF WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGHING AS AN UPPER
RIDGE POPS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL STRETCH OUT WHAT LITTLE SHEARED
VORTICITY THERE IS LARGELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70. DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LARGELY REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS
CORRIDOR...THUS THIS IS WERE LOW END POPS WERE CONCENTRATED ON FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DEEPER MOISTURE AND EXCEEDINGLY
WEAK FORCING MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO OVERCOME WARM AIR ALOFT AND A
GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION DUE TO
EXCEEDINGLY LOW SHEAR VALUES THROUGH THE DAY.

EVEN THOUGH SUNSHINE WILL BE UNLIKELY TO BE PERVASIVE UNTIL LATER
IN THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS AROUND
THE OPENING UPPER LOW...850 MB TEMPERATURES JUMP TOWARD
+18C...WHICH MEANS THAT GENERALLY MIDDLE TO A FEW UPPER 80S WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON. THIS IS EVEN WITH POOR MIXING.
HOWEVER...THE TEMPERATURE WILL ONLY BE PART OF THE EQUATION. DUE
TO DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY LARGELY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LITTLE CHANCE
OF DRY AIR BEING ENTRAINED DOWNWARD DUE TO POOR MIXING
TODAY...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY RUN UP TOWARD 90F BY
AFTERNOON IN MANY PLACES.

COOLING TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE A SLOW PROCESS. AMPLE BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE SEEMS POISED TO INTERACT A VIRTUALLY CLEAR SKY WITH
LITTLE WIND. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL HEATING IN URBAN AREAS SEEMS
LIKELY TO KEEP LOWS IN THE CITY CENTER NEAR 70F AGAIN...WHILE
OUTLYING AREAS SATURATE TO THE DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
60S YET AGAIN WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE
RIVER VALLEYS. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORS THE BUILDING OF A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY. DESPITE THIS...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WITH
WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPS IN PLACE...KEEPING POPS LIMITED TO SLIGHT
REALM...EVEN AS AN EMBEDDED WEAK TROF PASSES THROUGH THE RIDGE
TUESDAY EVENING. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN AMPLIFIES BY MID-WEEK RE-
INFORCING THE TREND TO DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE IMPRESSIVE EASTERN
CONUS RIDGE FURTHER AMPLIFIES REACHING INTO EASTERN CANADA. CANNOT
RULE OUT DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA AND RETURN FLOW
ESTABLISHES A MOISTURE FEED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC.
STILL...LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL PLAY OUT LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...NEARLY
THE SAME EVERYDAY...SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE NEXT REAL CHANCE OF A RAIN PRODUCING SYSTEM FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA COULD COME WITH A FRONT SLATED SOMETIME EARLY
TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR AND SOME IFR FOG SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WEAK FLOW. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF TOWARD
14Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR
PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310507
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
107 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS AND SPARSE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WARM AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT ACTIVITY TOMORROW...HOWEVER...A
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE
BERMUDA HIGH MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SCT SHOWERS/STORMS SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING AND WARM AIR CAPPING SHOULD KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
SHOULD BRING SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE AVERAGING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING TWEAKED GFS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE OVERALL PATTERN ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE EASTERN
RIDGE HOLDING FIRM. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL TO THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...AN AREAWIDE SLIGHT CHANCE STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE. THE
SPRAWLING UPPER HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME THOUGH...SUCH
THAT THE RIDGES WOULD BE FAVORED MAINLY FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE JUST
TO THE EAST...AN IMPROVED MOISTURE FEED MAY SUPPORT ACTIVITY
AREAWIDE ONCE AGAIN. LITTLE ORGANIZATION IS FORESEEN THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH OVERALL PRECIPITATION TOTALS REMAINING
FAIRLY LOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 WILL
BE FEATURED EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREAS OF MFVR AND SOME IFR FOG SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WEAK FLOW. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF
TOWARD 14Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR
PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310507
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
107 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS AND SPARSE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WARM AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT ACTIVITY TOMORROW...HOWEVER...A
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE
BERMUDA HIGH MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SCT SHOWERS/STORMS SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING AND WARM AIR CAPPING SHOULD KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
SHOULD BRING SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE AVERAGING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING TWEAKED GFS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE OVERALL PATTERN ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE EASTERN
RIDGE HOLDING FIRM. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL TO THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...AN AREAWIDE SLIGHT CHANCE STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE. THE
SPRAWLING UPPER HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME THOUGH...SUCH
THAT THE RIDGES WOULD BE FAVORED MAINLY FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE JUST
TO THE EAST...AN IMPROVED MOISTURE FEED MAY SUPPORT ACTIVITY
AREAWIDE ONCE AGAIN. LITTLE ORGANIZATION IS FORESEEN THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH OVERALL PRECIPITATION TOTALS REMAINING
FAIRLY LOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 WILL
BE FEATURED EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREAS OF MFVR AND SOME IFR FOG SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WEAK FLOW. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF
TOWARD 14Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR
PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310507
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
107 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS AND SPARSE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WARM AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT ACTIVITY TOMORROW...HOWEVER...A
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE
BERMUDA HIGH MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SCT SHOWERS/STORMS SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING AND WARM AIR CAPPING SHOULD KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
SHOULD BRING SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE AVERAGING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING TWEAKED GFS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE OVERALL PATTERN ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE EASTERN
RIDGE HOLDING FIRM. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL TO THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...AN AREAWIDE SLIGHT CHANCE STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE. THE
SPRAWLING UPPER HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME THOUGH...SUCH
THAT THE RIDGES WOULD BE FAVORED MAINLY FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE JUST
TO THE EAST...AN IMPROVED MOISTURE FEED MAY SUPPORT ACTIVITY
AREAWIDE ONCE AGAIN. LITTLE ORGANIZATION IS FORESEEN THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH OVERALL PRECIPITATION TOTALS REMAINING
FAIRLY LOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 WILL
BE FEATURED EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREAS OF MFVR AND SOME IFR FOG SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WEAK FLOW. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF
TOWARD 14Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR
PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310507
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
107 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS AND SPARSE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WARM AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT ACTIVITY TOMORROW...HOWEVER...A
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE
BERMUDA HIGH MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SCT SHOWERS/STORMS SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING AND WARM AIR CAPPING SHOULD KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
SHOULD BRING SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE AVERAGING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING TWEAKED GFS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE OVERALL PATTERN ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE EASTERN
RIDGE HOLDING FIRM. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL TO THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...AN AREAWIDE SLIGHT CHANCE STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE. THE
SPRAWLING UPPER HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME THOUGH...SUCH
THAT THE RIDGES WOULD BE FAVORED MAINLY FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE JUST
TO THE EAST...AN IMPROVED MOISTURE FEED MAY SUPPORT ACTIVITY
AREAWIDE ONCE AGAIN. LITTLE ORGANIZATION IS FORESEEN THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH OVERALL PRECIPITATION TOTALS REMAINING
FAIRLY LOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 WILL
BE FEATURED EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREAS OF MFVR AND SOME IFR FOG SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WEAK FLOW. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF
TOWARD 14Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR
PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310229
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1029 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS AND SPARSE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST SOUNDING SHOWS A RESPECTABLE AMOUNT OF WARMING ALOFT
WARMING ABOVE H600 WHICH HAS LIMITED CONVECTION THIS EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE GETTING PINCHED UNDER A
STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. LATEST RADAR SHOWS ACTIVITY
CONTINUING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO ZONES BUT EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO
END BY MIDNIGHT AS VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EAST.

WARM AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT ACTIVITY TOMORROW...HOWEVER...A
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE
BERMUDA HIGH MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SCT SHOWERS/STORMS SOUTH
OF PITTSBURGH. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING AND WARM AIR CAPPING SHOULD KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
SHOULD BRING SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE AVERAGING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING TWEAKED GFS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE OVERALL PATTERN ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE EASTERN
RIDGE HOLDING FIRM. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL TO THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...AN AREAWIDE SLIGHT CHANCE STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE. THE
SPRAWLING UPPER HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME THOUGH...SUCH
THAT THE RIDGES WOULD BE FAVORED MAINLY FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE JUST
TO THE EAST...AN IMPROVED MOISTURE FEED MAY SUPPORT ACTIVITY
AREAWIDE ONCE AGAIN. LITTLE ORGANIZATION IS FORESEEN THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH OVERALL PRECIPITATION TOTALS REMAINING
FAIRLY LOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 WILL
BE FEATURED EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREAS OF MFVR AND SOME IFR FOG SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WEAK FLOW. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF
TOWARD 14Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR
PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 310229
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1029 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS AND SPARSE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST SOUNDING SHOWS A RESPECTABLE AMOUNT OF WARMING ALOFT
WARMING ABOVE H600 WHICH HAS LIMITED CONVECTION THIS EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE GETTING PINCHED UNDER A
STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. LATEST RADAR SHOWS ACTIVITY
CONTINUING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO ZONES BUT EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO
END BY MIDNIGHT AS VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EAST.

WARM AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT ACTIVITY TOMORROW...HOWEVER...A
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE
BERMUDA HIGH MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SCT SHOWERS/STORMS SOUTH
OF PITTSBURGH. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING AND WARM AIR CAPPING SHOULD KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
SHOULD BRING SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE AVERAGING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING TWEAKED GFS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE OVERALL PATTERN ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE EASTERN
RIDGE HOLDING FIRM. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL TO THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...AN AREAWIDE SLIGHT CHANCE STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE. THE
SPRAWLING UPPER HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME THOUGH...SUCH
THAT THE RIDGES WOULD BE FAVORED MAINLY FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE JUST
TO THE EAST...AN IMPROVED MOISTURE FEED MAY SUPPORT ACTIVITY
AREAWIDE ONCE AGAIN. LITTLE ORGANIZATION IS FORESEEN THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH OVERALL PRECIPITATION TOTALS REMAINING
FAIRLY LOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 WILL
BE FEATURED EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREAS OF MFVR AND SOME IFR FOG SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WEAK FLOW. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF
TOWARD 14Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR
PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 302143
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
543 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS AND SPARSE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH
INTO EARLY EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE. PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..

AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING...THOUGH WARMING MID LEVELS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT
INSTABILITY AND PRECIP COVERAGE.

THE TROUGH...ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW...SHOULD KEEP SHOWER CHANCES SOUTH OF PIT OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BEFORE THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS S OF THE AREA. WITH WARM
AIR ALOFT...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LIMITED BUT AN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE S OF PIT ALSO. ELSEWHERE...CAPPING SHOULD
KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER IN PLACE MONDAY. PREFERRED THE GFS
SOLUTION/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AS IT INITIALIZED BETTER WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING AND WARM AIR CAPPING SHOULD KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
SHOULD BRING SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE AVERAGING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING TWEAKED GFS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... NO CHANGES TO THE
OVERALL PATTERN ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE EASTERN RIDGE HOLDING
FIRM. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL TO THE WEST ON THURSDAY...AN
AREAWIDE SLIGHT CHANCE STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE. THE SPRAWLING
UPPER HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME THOUGH...SUCH THAT THE
RIDGES WOULD BE FAVORED MAINLY FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE JUST TO THE
EAST...AN IMPROVED MOISTURE FEED MAY SUPPORT ACTIVITY AREAWIDE
ONCE AGAIN. LITTLE ORGANIZATION IS FORESEEN THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH OVERALL PRECIPITATION TOTALS REMAINING
FAIRLY LOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 WILL
BE FEATURED EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF TSRA IMPACTING SITES SOUTH OF KPIT THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY GENERAL VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AS
CONDITIONS STABILIZE. BEFORE DAYBREAK AREAS OF MFVR AND SOME IFR
FOG SHOULD DEVELOP WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK
FLOW. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF TOWARD 14Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
WESTERLY EXCEPT FOR VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 302143
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
543 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS AND SPARSE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH
INTO EARLY EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE. PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..

AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING...THOUGH WARMING MID LEVELS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT
INSTABILITY AND PRECIP COVERAGE.

THE TROUGH...ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW...SHOULD KEEP SHOWER CHANCES SOUTH OF PIT OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BEFORE THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS S OF THE AREA. WITH WARM
AIR ALOFT...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LIMITED BUT AN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE S OF PIT ALSO. ELSEWHERE...CAPPING SHOULD
KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER IN PLACE MONDAY. PREFERRED THE GFS
SOLUTION/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AS IT INITIALIZED BETTER WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING AND WARM AIR CAPPING SHOULD KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
SHOULD BRING SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE AVERAGING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING TWEAKED GFS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... NO CHANGES TO THE
OVERALL PATTERN ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE EASTERN RIDGE HOLDING
FIRM. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL TO THE WEST ON THURSDAY...AN
AREAWIDE SLIGHT CHANCE STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE. THE SPRAWLING
UPPER HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME THOUGH...SUCH THAT THE
RIDGES WOULD BE FAVORED MAINLY FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE JUST TO THE
EAST...AN IMPROVED MOISTURE FEED MAY SUPPORT ACTIVITY AREAWIDE
ONCE AGAIN. LITTLE ORGANIZATION IS FORESEEN THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH OVERALL PRECIPITATION TOTALS REMAINING
FAIRLY LOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 WILL
BE FEATURED EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF TSRA IMPACTING SITES SOUTH OF KPIT THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY GENERAL VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AS
CONDITIONS STABILIZE. BEFORE DAYBREAK AREAS OF MFVR AND SOME IFR
FOG SHOULD DEVELOP WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK
FLOW. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF TOWARD 14Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
WESTERLY EXCEPT FOR VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 302143
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
543 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS AND SPARSE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH
INTO EARLY EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE. PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..

AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING...THOUGH WARMING MID LEVELS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT
INSTABILITY AND PRECIP COVERAGE.

THE TROUGH...ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW...SHOULD KEEP SHOWER CHANCES SOUTH OF PIT OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BEFORE THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS S OF THE AREA. WITH WARM
AIR ALOFT...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LIMITED BUT AN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE S OF PIT ALSO. ELSEWHERE...CAPPING SHOULD
KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER IN PLACE MONDAY. PREFERRED THE GFS
SOLUTION/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AS IT INITIALIZED BETTER WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING AND WARM AIR CAPPING SHOULD KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
SHOULD BRING SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE AVERAGING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING TWEAKED GFS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... NO CHANGES TO THE
OVERALL PATTERN ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE EASTERN RIDGE HOLDING
FIRM. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL TO THE WEST ON THURSDAY...AN
AREAWIDE SLIGHT CHANCE STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE. THE SPRAWLING
UPPER HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME THOUGH...SUCH THAT THE
RIDGES WOULD BE FAVORED MAINLY FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE JUST TO THE
EAST...AN IMPROVED MOISTURE FEED MAY SUPPORT ACTIVITY AREAWIDE
ONCE AGAIN. LITTLE ORGANIZATION IS FORESEEN THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH OVERALL PRECIPITATION TOTALS REMAINING
FAIRLY LOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 WILL
BE FEATURED EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF TSRA IMPACTING SITES SOUTH OF KPIT THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY GENERAL VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AS
CONDITIONS STABILIZE. BEFORE DAYBREAK AREAS OF MFVR AND SOME IFR
FOG SHOULD DEVELOP WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK
FLOW. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF TOWARD 14Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
WESTERLY EXCEPT FOR VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 302143
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
543 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS AND SPARSE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH
INTO EARLY EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE. PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..

AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING...THOUGH WARMING MID LEVELS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT
INSTABILITY AND PRECIP COVERAGE.

THE TROUGH...ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW...SHOULD KEEP SHOWER CHANCES SOUTH OF PIT OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BEFORE THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS S OF THE AREA. WITH WARM
AIR ALOFT...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LIMITED BUT AN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE S OF PIT ALSO. ELSEWHERE...CAPPING SHOULD
KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER IN PLACE MONDAY. PREFERRED THE GFS
SOLUTION/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AS IT INITIALIZED BETTER WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING AND WARM AIR CAPPING SHOULD KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
SHOULD BRING SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE AVERAGING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING TWEAKED GFS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... NO CHANGES TO THE
OVERALL PATTERN ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE EASTERN RIDGE HOLDING
FIRM. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL TO THE WEST ON THURSDAY...AN
AREAWIDE SLIGHT CHANCE STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE. THE SPRAWLING
UPPER HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME THOUGH...SUCH THAT THE
RIDGES WOULD BE FAVORED MAINLY FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE JUST TO THE
EAST...AN IMPROVED MOISTURE FEED MAY SUPPORT ACTIVITY AREAWIDE
ONCE AGAIN. LITTLE ORGANIZATION IS FORESEEN THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH OVERALL PRECIPITATION TOTALS REMAINING
FAIRLY LOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 WILL
BE FEATURED EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF TSRA IMPACTING SITES SOUTH OF KPIT THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY GENERAL VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AS
CONDITIONS STABILIZE. BEFORE DAYBREAK AREAS OF MFVR AND SOME IFR
FOG SHOULD DEVELOP WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK
FLOW. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF TOWARD 14Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
WESTERLY EXCEPT FOR VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301841
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
241 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS AND SPARSE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING...THOUGH WARMING MID LEVELS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT
INSTABILITY AND PRECIP COVERAGE.

THE TROUGH...ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW...SHOULD KEEP SHOWER CHANCES SOUTH OF PIT OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BEFORE THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS S OF THE AREA. WITH WARM
AIR ALOFT...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LIMITED BUT AN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE S OF PIT ALSO. ELSEWHERE...CAPPING SHOULD
KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER IN PLACE MONDAY. PREFERRED THE GFS
SOLUTION/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AS IT INITIALIZED BETTER WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING AND WARM AIR CAPPING SHOULD KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
SHOULD BRING SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE AVERAGING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING TWEAKED GFS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE OVERALL PATTERN ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE EASTERN
RIDGE HOLDING FIRM. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL TO THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...AN AREAWIDE SLIGHT CHANCE STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE. THE
SPRAWLING UPPER HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME THOUGH...SUCH
THAT THE RIDGES WOULD BE FAVORED MAINLY FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE JUST
TO THE EAST...AN IMPROVED MOISTURE FEED MAY SUPPORT ACTIVITY
AREAWIDE ONCE AGAIN. LITTLE ORGANIZATION IS FORESEEN THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH OVERALL PRECIPITATION TOTALS REMAINING
FAIRLY LOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 WILL
BE FEATURED EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONTINUED GENERAL VFR THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD
WITH RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT. BEFORE DAYBREAK AREAS OF MFVR AND SOME
IFR FOG SHOULD DEVELOP WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
WEAK FLOW. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF TOWARD 14Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT WESTERLY EXCEPT FOR VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301841
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
241 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS AND SPARSE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING...THOUGH WARMING MID LEVELS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT
INSTABILITY AND PRECIP COVERAGE.

THE TROUGH...ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW...SHOULD KEEP SHOWER CHANCES SOUTH OF PIT OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BEFORE THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS S OF THE AREA. WITH WARM
AIR ALOFT...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LIMITED BUT AN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE S OF PIT ALSO. ELSEWHERE...CAPPING SHOULD
KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER IN PLACE MONDAY. PREFERRED THE GFS
SOLUTION/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AS IT INITIALIZED BETTER WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING AND WARM AIR CAPPING SHOULD KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
SHOULD BRING SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE AVERAGING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING TWEAKED GFS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE OVERALL PATTERN ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE EASTERN
RIDGE HOLDING FIRM. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL TO THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...AN AREAWIDE SLIGHT CHANCE STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE. THE
SPRAWLING UPPER HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME THOUGH...SUCH
THAT THE RIDGES WOULD BE FAVORED MAINLY FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE JUST
TO THE EAST...AN IMPROVED MOISTURE FEED MAY SUPPORT ACTIVITY
AREAWIDE ONCE AGAIN. LITTLE ORGANIZATION IS FORESEEN THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH OVERALL PRECIPITATION TOTALS REMAINING
FAIRLY LOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 WILL
BE FEATURED EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONTINUED GENERAL VFR THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD
WITH RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT. BEFORE DAYBREAK AREAS OF MFVR AND SOME
IFR FOG SHOULD DEVELOP WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
WEAK FLOW. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF TOWARD 14Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT WESTERLY EXCEPT FOR VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301841
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
241 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS AND SPARSE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING...THOUGH WARMING MID LEVELS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT
INSTABILITY AND PRECIP COVERAGE.

THE TROUGH...ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW...SHOULD KEEP SHOWER CHANCES SOUTH OF PIT OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BEFORE THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS S OF THE AREA. WITH WARM
AIR ALOFT...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LIMITED BUT AN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE S OF PIT ALSO. ELSEWHERE...CAPPING SHOULD
KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER IN PLACE MONDAY. PREFERRED THE GFS
SOLUTION/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AS IT INITIALIZED BETTER WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING AND WARM AIR CAPPING SHOULD KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
SHOULD BRING SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE AVERAGING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING TWEAKED GFS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE OVERALL PATTERN ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE EASTERN
RIDGE HOLDING FIRM. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL TO THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...AN AREAWIDE SLIGHT CHANCE STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE. THE
SPRAWLING UPPER HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME THOUGH...SUCH
THAT THE RIDGES WOULD BE FAVORED MAINLY FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE JUST
TO THE EAST...AN IMPROVED MOISTURE FEED MAY SUPPORT ACTIVITY
AREAWIDE ONCE AGAIN. LITTLE ORGANIZATION IS FORESEEN THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH OVERALL PRECIPITATION TOTALS REMAINING
FAIRLY LOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 WILL
BE FEATURED EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONTINUED GENERAL VFR THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD
WITH RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT. BEFORE DAYBREAK AREAS OF MFVR AND SOME
IFR FOG SHOULD DEVELOP WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
WEAK FLOW. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF TOWARD 14Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT WESTERLY EXCEPT FOR VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301841
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
241 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS AND SPARSE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING...THOUGH WARMING MID LEVELS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT
INSTABILITY AND PRECIP COVERAGE.

THE TROUGH...ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW...SHOULD KEEP SHOWER CHANCES SOUTH OF PIT OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BEFORE THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS S OF THE AREA. WITH WARM
AIR ALOFT...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LIMITED BUT AN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE S OF PIT ALSO. ELSEWHERE...CAPPING SHOULD
KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER IN PLACE MONDAY. PREFERRED THE GFS
SOLUTION/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AS IT INITIALIZED BETTER WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING AND WARM AIR CAPPING SHOULD KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
SHOULD BRING SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE AVERAGING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING TWEAKED GFS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE OVERALL PATTERN ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE EASTERN
RIDGE HOLDING FIRM. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL TO THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...AN AREAWIDE SLIGHT CHANCE STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE. THE
SPRAWLING UPPER HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME THOUGH...SUCH
THAT THE RIDGES WOULD BE FAVORED MAINLY FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE JUST
TO THE EAST...AN IMPROVED MOISTURE FEED MAY SUPPORT ACTIVITY
AREAWIDE ONCE AGAIN. LITTLE ORGANIZATION IS FORESEEN THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH OVERALL PRECIPITATION TOTALS REMAINING
FAIRLY LOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 WILL
BE FEATURED EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONTINUED GENERAL VFR THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD
WITH RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT. BEFORE DAYBREAK AREAS OF MFVR AND SOME
IFR FOG SHOULD DEVELOP WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
WEAK FLOW. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF TOWARD 14Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT WESTERLY EXCEPT FOR VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301724
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
124 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWER CHANCES TODAY ACROSS THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF A SLOW MOVING UPPER
TROUGH...THOUGH OBSERVED MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW WARMING MID
LEVELS SHOULD HELP LIMIT INSTABILITY AND PRECIP COVERAGE.
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ARE EXPECTED USING THE
LATEST GFS MOS.

A VORTICITY LOBE WILL LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TOWARDS
THE MIDATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA
WILL BE SKIMMED BY THIS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE BARELY
SUFFICIENT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM PIT ON SOUTH. PROXIMITY TO
VORT LOBE PLUS TERRAIN EFFECTS MAY ALLOW FOR A BIT BETTER
COVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES. DEPARTURE OF DISTURBANCE
PLUS LOSS OF HEATING WILL END PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY 00Z
TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY AND
HOLD ON FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD. MIDLEVEL CAPPING APPEARS MORE
LIKELY ON TUESDAY...AND FOR NOW HAVE ONLY KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ALONG THE RIDGES. FOR WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...EMBEDDED IN THE GENERAL RIDGING PATTERN...MAY ALLOW
CAPPING TO BE OVERCOME SUFFICIENTLY FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION. EACH
NIGHTTIME PERIOD SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL OF COURSE BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS PATTERN.
GENERALLY BLENDED MOSGUIDE WITH PREVIOUS VALUES FOR THE FORECAST.
WOULD EXPECT SOME READINGS AT OR JUST OVER THE 90 DEGREE LEVEL BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE OVERALL PATTERN ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE EASTERN
RIDGE HOLDING FIRM. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL TO THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...AN AREAWIDE SLIGHT CHANCE STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE. THE
SPRAWLING UPPER HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME THOUGH...SUCH
THAT THE RIDGES WOULD BE FAVORED MAINLY FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE JUST
TO THE EAST...AN IMPROVED MOISTURE FEED MAY SUPPORT ACTIVITY
AREAWIDE ONCE AGAIN. LITTLE ORGANIZATION IS FORESEEN THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH OVERALL PRECIPITATION TOTALS REMAINING
FAIRLY LOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 WILL
BE FEATURED EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONTINUED GENERAL VFR THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD
WITH RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT. BEFORE DAYBREAK AREAS OF MFVR AND SOME
IFR FOG SHOULD DEVELOP WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
WEAK FLOW. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF TOWARD 14Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT WESTERLY EXCEPT FOR VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301724
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
124 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWER CHANCES TODAY ACROSS THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF A SLOW MOVING UPPER
TROUGH...THOUGH OBSERVED MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW WARMING MID
LEVELS SHOULD HELP LIMIT INSTABILITY AND PRECIP COVERAGE.
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ARE EXPECTED USING THE
LATEST GFS MOS.

A VORTICITY LOBE WILL LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TOWARDS
THE MIDATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA
WILL BE SKIMMED BY THIS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE BARELY
SUFFICIENT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM PIT ON SOUTH. PROXIMITY TO
VORT LOBE PLUS TERRAIN EFFECTS MAY ALLOW FOR A BIT BETTER
COVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES. DEPARTURE OF DISTURBANCE
PLUS LOSS OF HEATING WILL END PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY 00Z
TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY AND
HOLD ON FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD. MIDLEVEL CAPPING APPEARS MORE
LIKELY ON TUESDAY...AND FOR NOW HAVE ONLY KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ALONG THE RIDGES. FOR WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...EMBEDDED IN THE GENERAL RIDGING PATTERN...MAY ALLOW
CAPPING TO BE OVERCOME SUFFICIENTLY FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION. EACH
NIGHTTIME PERIOD SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL OF COURSE BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS PATTERN.
GENERALLY BLENDED MOSGUIDE WITH PREVIOUS VALUES FOR THE FORECAST.
WOULD EXPECT SOME READINGS AT OR JUST OVER THE 90 DEGREE LEVEL BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE OVERALL PATTERN ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE EASTERN
RIDGE HOLDING FIRM. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL TO THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...AN AREAWIDE SLIGHT CHANCE STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE. THE
SPRAWLING UPPER HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME THOUGH...SUCH
THAT THE RIDGES WOULD BE FAVORED MAINLY FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE JUST
TO THE EAST...AN IMPROVED MOISTURE FEED MAY SUPPORT ACTIVITY
AREAWIDE ONCE AGAIN. LITTLE ORGANIZATION IS FORESEEN THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH OVERALL PRECIPITATION TOTALS REMAINING
FAIRLY LOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 WILL
BE FEATURED EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONTINUED GENERAL VFR THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD
WITH RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT. BEFORE DAYBREAK AREAS OF MFVR AND SOME
IFR FOG SHOULD DEVELOP WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
WEAK FLOW. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF TOWARD 14Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT WESTERLY EXCEPT FOR VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301724
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
124 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWER CHANCES TODAY ACROSS THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF A SLOW MOVING UPPER
TROUGH...THOUGH OBSERVED MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW WARMING MID
LEVELS SHOULD HELP LIMIT INSTABILITY AND PRECIP COVERAGE.
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ARE EXPECTED USING THE
LATEST GFS MOS.

A VORTICITY LOBE WILL LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TOWARDS
THE MIDATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA
WILL BE SKIMMED BY THIS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE BARELY
SUFFICIENT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM PIT ON SOUTH. PROXIMITY TO
VORT LOBE PLUS TERRAIN EFFECTS MAY ALLOW FOR A BIT BETTER
COVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES. DEPARTURE OF DISTURBANCE
PLUS LOSS OF HEATING WILL END PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY 00Z
TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY AND
HOLD ON FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD. MIDLEVEL CAPPING APPEARS MORE
LIKELY ON TUESDAY...AND FOR NOW HAVE ONLY KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ALONG THE RIDGES. FOR WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...EMBEDDED IN THE GENERAL RIDGING PATTERN...MAY ALLOW
CAPPING TO BE OVERCOME SUFFICIENTLY FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION. EACH
NIGHTTIME PERIOD SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL OF COURSE BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS PATTERN.
GENERALLY BLENDED MOSGUIDE WITH PREVIOUS VALUES FOR THE FORECAST.
WOULD EXPECT SOME READINGS AT OR JUST OVER THE 90 DEGREE LEVEL BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE OVERALL PATTERN ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE EASTERN
RIDGE HOLDING FIRM. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL TO THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...AN AREAWIDE SLIGHT CHANCE STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE. THE
SPRAWLING UPPER HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME THOUGH...SUCH
THAT THE RIDGES WOULD BE FAVORED MAINLY FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE JUST
TO THE EAST...AN IMPROVED MOISTURE FEED MAY SUPPORT ACTIVITY
AREAWIDE ONCE AGAIN. LITTLE ORGANIZATION IS FORESEEN THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH OVERALL PRECIPITATION TOTALS REMAINING
FAIRLY LOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 WILL
BE FEATURED EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONTINUED GENERAL VFR THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD
WITH RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT. BEFORE DAYBREAK AREAS OF MFVR AND SOME
IFR FOG SHOULD DEVELOP WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
WEAK FLOW. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF TOWARD 14Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT WESTERLY EXCEPT FOR VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301724
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
124 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWER CHANCES TODAY ACROSS THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF A SLOW MOVING UPPER
TROUGH...THOUGH OBSERVED MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW WARMING MID
LEVELS SHOULD HELP LIMIT INSTABILITY AND PRECIP COVERAGE.
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ARE EXPECTED USING THE
LATEST GFS MOS.

A VORTICITY LOBE WILL LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TOWARDS
THE MIDATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA
WILL BE SKIMMED BY THIS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE BARELY
SUFFICIENT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM PIT ON SOUTH. PROXIMITY TO
VORT LOBE PLUS TERRAIN EFFECTS MAY ALLOW FOR A BIT BETTER
COVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES. DEPARTURE OF DISTURBANCE
PLUS LOSS OF HEATING WILL END PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY 00Z
TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY AND
HOLD ON FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD. MIDLEVEL CAPPING APPEARS MORE
LIKELY ON TUESDAY...AND FOR NOW HAVE ONLY KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ALONG THE RIDGES. FOR WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...EMBEDDED IN THE GENERAL RIDGING PATTERN...MAY ALLOW
CAPPING TO BE OVERCOME SUFFICIENTLY FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION. EACH
NIGHTTIME PERIOD SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL OF COURSE BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS PATTERN.
GENERALLY BLENDED MOSGUIDE WITH PREVIOUS VALUES FOR THE FORECAST.
WOULD EXPECT SOME READINGS AT OR JUST OVER THE 90 DEGREE LEVEL BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE OVERALL PATTERN ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE EASTERN
RIDGE HOLDING FIRM. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL TO THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...AN AREAWIDE SLIGHT CHANCE STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE. THE
SPRAWLING UPPER HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME THOUGH...SUCH
THAT THE RIDGES WOULD BE FAVORED MAINLY FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE JUST
TO THE EAST...AN IMPROVED MOISTURE FEED MAY SUPPORT ACTIVITY
AREAWIDE ONCE AGAIN. LITTLE ORGANIZATION IS FORESEEN THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH OVERALL PRECIPITATION TOTALS REMAINING
FAIRLY LOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 WILL
BE FEATURED EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONTINUED GENERAL VFR THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD
WITH RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT. BEFORE DAYBREAK AREAS OF MFVR AND SOME
IFR FOG SHOULD DEVELOP WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
WEAK FLOW. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF TOWARD 14Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT WESTERLY EXCEPT FOR VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301530
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1130 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWER CHANCES TODAY ACROSS THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF A SLOW MOVING UPPER
TROUGH...THOUGH OBSERVED MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW WARMING MID
LEVELS SHOULD HELP LIMIT INSTABILITY AND PRECIP COVERAGE.
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ARE EXPECTED USING THE
LATEST GFS MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A VORTICITY LOBE WILL LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TOWARDS
THE MIDATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA
WILL BE SKIMMED BY THIS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE BARELY
SUFFICIENT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM PIT ON SOUTH. PROXIMITY TO
VORT LOBE PLUS TERRAIN EFFECTS MAY ALLOW FOR A BIT BETTER
COVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES. DEPARTURE OF DISTURBANCE
PLUS LOSS OF HEATING WILL END PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY 00Z
TUESDAY.

THEREAFTER...RIDGING WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY AND HOLD ON FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD. MIDLEVEL CAPPING
APPEARS MORE LIKELY ON TUESDAY...AND FOR NOW HAVE ONLY KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ALONG THE RIDGES. FOR WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...EMBEDDED IN THE GENERAL RIDGING
PATTERN...MAY ALLOW CAPPING TO BE OVERCOME SUFFICIENTLY FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION. EACH NIGHTTIME PERIOD SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL OF COURSE BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS PATTERN.
GENERALLY BLENDED MOSGUIDE WITH PREVIOUS VALUES FOR THE FORECAST.
WOULD EXPECT SOME READINGS AT OR JUST OVER THE 90 DEGREE LEVEL BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE OVERALL PATTERN ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE EASTERN
RIDGE HOLDING FIRM. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL TO THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...AN AREAWIDE SLIGHT CHANCE STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE. THE
SPRAWLING UPPER HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME THOUGH...SUCH
THAT THE RIDGES WOULD BE FAVORED MAINLY FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE JUST
TO THE EAST...AN IMPROVED MOISTURE FEED MAY SUPPORT ACTIVITY
AREAWIDE ONCE AGAIN. LITTLE ORGANIZATION IS FORESEEN THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH OVERALL PRECIPITATION TOTALS REMAINING
FAIRLY LOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 WILL
BE FEATURED EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUED GENERAL VFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH ONLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AT BEST WITH WEAK UPPER SUPPORT AND SHALLOW
MOISTURE. ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
MAINLY FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301427
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1027 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWER CHANCES TODAY ACROSS THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF A SLOW MOVING UPPER
TROUGH...THOUGH OBSERVED MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW WARMING MID
LEVELS SHOULD HELP LIMIT INSTABILITY AND PRECIP COVERAGE.
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ARE EXPECTED USING THE
LATEST GFS MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A VORTICITY LOBE WILL LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TOWARDS
THE MIDATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA
WILL BE SKIMMED BY THIS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE BARELY
SUFFICIENT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM PIT ON SOUTH. PROXIMITY TO
VORT LOBE PLUS TERRAIN EFFECTS MAY ALLOW FOR A BIT BETTER
COVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES. DEPARTURE OF DISTURBANCE
PLUS LOSS OF HEATING WILL END PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY 00Z
TUESDAY.

THEREAFTER...RIDGING WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY AND HOLD ON FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD. MIDLEVEL CAPPING
APPEARS MORE LIKELY ON TUESDAY...AND FOR NOW HAVE ONLY KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ALONG THE RIDGES. FOR WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...EMBEDDED IN THE GENERAL RIDGING
PATTERN...MAY ALLOW CAPPING TO BE OVERCOME SUFFICIENTLY FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION. EACH NIGHTTIME PERIOD SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL OF COURSE BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS PATTERN.
GENERALLY BLENDED MOSGUIDE WITH PREVIOUS VALUES FOR THE FORECAST.
WOULD EXPECT SOME READINGS AT OR JUST OVER THE 90 DEGREE LEVEL BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE OVERALL PATTERN ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE EASTERN
RIDGE HOLDING FIRM. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL TO THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...AN AREAWIDE SLIGHT CHANCE STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE. THE
SPRAWLING UPPER HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME THOUGH...SUCH
THAT THE RIDGES WOULD BE FAVORED MAINLY FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE JUST
TO THE EAST...AN IMPROVED MOISTURE FEED MAY SUPPORT ACTIVITY
AREAWIDE ONCE AGAIN. LITTLE ORGANIZATION IS FORESEEN THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH OVERALL PRECIPITATION TOTALS REMAINING
FAIRLY LOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 WILL
BE FEATURED EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR DUJ THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS FOR THE BULK OF
THE DAY.

CONTINUED GENERAL VFR CIGS LATER TODAY WITH ONLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AT BEST WITH WEAK UPPER SUPPORT AND SHALLOW MOISTURE.
ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301427
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1027 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWER CHANCES TODAY ACROSS THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF A SLOW MOVING UPPER
TROUGH...THOUGH OBSERVED MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW WARMING MID
LEVELS SHOULD HELP LIMIT INSTABILITY AND PRECIP COVERAGE.
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ARE EXPECTED USING THE
LATEST GFS MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A VORTICITY LOBE WILL LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TOWARDS
THE MIDATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA
WILL BE SKIMMED BY THIS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE BARELY
SUFFICIENT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM PIT ON SOUTH. PROXIMITY TO
VORT LOBE PLUS TERRAIN EFFECTS MAY ALLOW FOR A BIT BETTER
COVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES. DEPARTURE OF DISTURBANCE
PLUS LOSS OF HEATING WILL END PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY 00Z
TUESDAY.

THEREAFTER...RIDGING WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY AND HOLD ON FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD. MIDLEVEL CAPPING
APPEARS MORE LIKELY ON TUESDAY...AND FOR NOW HAVE ONLY KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ALONG THE RIDGES. FOR WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...EMBEDDED IN THE GENERAL RIDGING
PATTERN...MAY ALLOW CAPPING TO BE OVERCOME SUFFICIENTLY FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION. EACH NIGHTTIME PERIOD SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL OF COURSE BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS PATTERN.
GENERALLY BLENDED MOSGUIDE WITH PREVIOUS VALUES FOR THE FORECAST.
WOULD EXPECT SOME READINGS AT OR JUST OVER THE 90 DEGREE LEVEL BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE OVERALL PATTERN ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE EASTERN
RIDGE HOLDING FIRM. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL TO THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...AN AREAWIDE SLIGHT CHANCE STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE. THE
SPRAWLING UPPER HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME THOUGH...SUCH
THAT THE RIDGES WOULD BE FAVORED MAINLY FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE JUST
TO THE EAST...AN IMPROVED MOISTURE FEED MAY SUPPORT ACTIVITY
AREAWIDE ONCE AGAIN. LITTLE ORGANIZATION IS FORESEEN THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH OVERALL PRECIPITATION TOTALS REMAINING
FAIRLY LOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 WILL
BE FEATURED EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR DUJ THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS FOR THE BULK OF
THE DAY.

CONTINUED GENERAL VFR CIGS LATER TODAY WITH ONLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AT BEST WITH WEAK UPPER SUPPORT AND SHALLOW MOISTURE.
ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301214
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
814 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWER CHANCES TODAY ACROSS THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION...WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING SHOWER CHANCES TO THE REGION. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS THIS
MORNING NEAR AND NORTH OF I 80 WHERE BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE IS
LOCATED.

OTHERWISE...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH UPPER SUPPORT IS PROGGED TO
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE. MENTIONED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH
WARMING MID LEVELS SHOULD HELP LIMIT INSTABILITY. HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ARE EXPECTED USING THE LATEST GFS MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A VORTICITY LOBE WILL LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TOWARDS
THE MIDATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA
WILL BE SKIMMED BY THIS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE BARELY
SUFFICIENT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM PIT ON SOUTH. PROXIMITY TO
VORT LOBE PLUS TERRAIN EFFECTS MAY ALLOW FOR A BIT BETTER
COVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES. DEPARTURE OF DISTURBANCE
PLUS LOSS OF HEATING WILL END PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY 00Z
TUESDAY.

THEREAFTER...RIDGING WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY AND HOLD ON FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD. MIDLEVEL CAPPING
APPEARS MORE LIKELY ON TUESDAY...AND FOR NOW HAVE ONLY KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ALONG THE RIDGES. FOR WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...EMBEDDED IN THE GENERAL RIDGING
PATTERN...MAY ALLOW CAPPING TO BE OVERCOME SUFFICIENTLY FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION. EACH NIGHTTIME PERIOD SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL OF COURSE BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS PATTERN.
GENERALLY BLENDED MOSGUIDE WITH PREVIOUS VALUES FOR THE FORECAST.
WOULD EXPECT SOME READINGS AT OR JUST OVER THE 90 DEGREE LEVEL BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE OVERALL PATTERN ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE EASTERN
RIDGE HOLDING FIRM. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL TO THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...AN AREAWIDE SLIGHT CHANCE STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE. THE
SPRAWLING UPPER HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME THOUGH...SUCH
THAT THE RIDGES WOULD BE FAVORED MAINLY FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE JUST
TO THE EAST...AN IMPROVED MOISTURE FEED MAY SUPPORT ACTIVITY
AREAWIDE ONCE AGAIN. LITTLE ORGANIZATION IS FORESEEN THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH OVERALL PRECIPITATION TOTALS REMAINING
FAIRLY LOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 WILL
BE FEATURED EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS REGION...RESULTING IN SHOWERS
QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. SOME MVFR TO IFR
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR FKL/DUJ THROUGH MID-MORNING...BUT
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS FOR THE BULK OF
THE DAY.

CONTINUED GENERAL VFR CIGS LATER TODAY WITH ONLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AT BEST WITH WEAK UPPER SUPPORT AND SHALLOW MOISTURE.
ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301214
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
814 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWER CHANCES TODAY ACROSS THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION...WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING SHOWER CHANCES TO THE REGION. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS THIS
MORNING NEAR AND NORTH OF I 80 WHERE BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE IS
LOCATED.

OTHERWISE...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH UPPER SUPPORT IS PROGGED TO
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE. MENTIONED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH
WARMING MID LEVELS SHOULD HELP LIMIT INSTABILITY. HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ARE EXPECTED USING THE LATEST GFS MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A VORTICITY LOBE WILL LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TOWARDS
THE MIDATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA
WILL BE SKIMMED BY THIS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE BARELY
SUFFICIENT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM PIT ON SOUTH. PROXIMITY TO
VORT LOBE PLUS TERRAIN EFFECTS MAY ALLOW FOR A BIT BETTER
COVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES. DEPARTURE OF DISTURBANCE
PLUS LOSS OF HEATING WILL END PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY 00Z
TUESDAY.

THEREAFTER...RIDGING WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY AND HOLD ON FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD. MIDLEVEL CAPPING
APPEARS MORE LIKELY ON TUESDAY...AND FOR NOW HAVE ONLY KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ALONG THE RIDGES. FOR WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...EMBEDDED IN THE GENERAL RIDGING
PATTERN...MAY ALLOW CAPPING TO BE OVERCOME SUFFICIENTLY FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION. EACH NIGHTTIME PERIOD SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL OF COURSE BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS PATTERN.
GENERALLY BLENDED MOSGUIDE WITH PREVIOUS VALUES FOR THE FORECAST.
WOULD EXPECT SOME READINGS AT OR JUST OVER THE 90 DEGREE LEVEL BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE OVERALL PATTERN ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE EASTERN
RIDGE HOLDING FIRM. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL TO THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...AN AREAWIDE SLIGHT CHANCE STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE. THE
SPRAWLING UPPER HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME THOUGH...SUCH
THAT THE RIDGES WOULD BE FAVORED MAINLY FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE JUST
TO THE EAST...AN IMPROVED MOISTURE FEED MAY SUPPORT ACTIVITY
AREAWIDE ONCE AGAIN. LITTLE ORGANIZATION IS FORESEEN THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH OVERALL PRECIPITATION TOTALS REMAINING
FAIRLY LOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 WILL
BE FEATURED EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS REGION...RESULTING IN SHOWERS
QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. SOME MVFR TO IFR
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR FKL/DUJ THROUGH MID-MORNING...BUT
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS FOR THE BULK OF
THE DAY.

CONTINUED GENERAL VFR CIGS LATER TODAY WITH ONLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AT BEST WITH WEAK UPPER SUPPORT AND SHALLOW MOISTURE.
ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301214 CCA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
814 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWER CHANCES TODAY ACROSS THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION...WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING SHOWER CHANCES. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS THIS MORNING NEAR AND
NORTH OF I 80 WHERE BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE IS LOCATED.

OTHERWISE...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH UPPER SUPPORT IS PROGGED TO BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE. MENTIONED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH WARMING MID
LEVELS SHOULD HELP LIMIT INSTABILITY. HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE ARE EXPECTED USING THE LATEST GFS MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A VORTICITY LOBE WILL LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TOWARDS
THE MIDATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA
WILL BE SKIMMED BY THIS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE BARELY
SUFFICIENT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM PIT ON SOUTH. PROXIMITY TO
VORT LOBE PLUS TERRAIN EFFECTS MAY ALLOW FOR A BIT BETTER
COVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES. DEPARTURE OF DISTURBANCE
PLUS LOSS OF HEATING WILL END PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY 00Z
TUESDAY.

THEREAFTER...RIDGING WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY AND HOLD ON FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD. MIDLEVEL CAPPING
APPEARS MORE LIKELY ON TUESDAY...AND FOR NOW HAVE ONLY KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ALONG THE RIDGES. FOR WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...EMBEDDED IN THE GENERAL RIDGING
PATTERN...MAY ALLOW CAPPING TO BE OVERCOME SUFFICIENTLY FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION. EACH NIGHTTIME PERIOD SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL OF COURSE BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS PATTERN.
GENERALLY BLENDED MOSGUIDE WITH PREVIOUS VALUES FOR THE FORECAST.
WOULD EXPECT SOME READINGS AT OR JUST OVER THE 90 DEGREE LEVEL BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE OVERALL PATTERN ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE EASTERN
RIDGE HOLDING FIRM. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL TO THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...AN AREAWIDE SLIGHT CHANCE STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE. THE
SPRAWLING UPPER HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME THOUGH...SUCH
THAT THE RIDGES WOULD BE FAVORED MAINLY FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE JUST
TO THE EAST...AN IMPROVED MOISTURE FEED MAY SUPPORT ACTIVITY
AREAWIDE ONCE AGAIN. LITTLE ORGANIZATION IS FORESEEN THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH OVERALL PRECIPITATION TOTALS REMAINING
FAIRLY LOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 WILL
BE FEATURED EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS REGION...RESULTING IN SHOWERS
QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. SOME MVFR TO IFR
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR FKL/DUJ THROUGH MID-MORNING...BUT
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS FOR THE BULK OF
THE DAY.

CONTINUED GENERAL VFR CIGS LATER TODAY WITH ONLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AT BEST WITH WEAK UPPER SUPPORT AND SHALLOW MOISTURE.
ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301214
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
814 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWER CHANCES TODAY ACROSS THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION...WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING SHOWER CHANCES TO THE REGION. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS THIS
MORNING NEAR AND NORTH OF I 80 WHERE BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE IS
LOCATED.

OTHERWISE...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH UPPER SUPPORT IS PROGGED TO
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE. MENTIONED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH
WARMING MID LEVELS SHOULD HELP LIMIT INSTABILITY. HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ARE EXPECTED USING THE LATEST GFS MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A VORTICITY LOBE WILL LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TOWARDS
THE MIDATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA
WILL BE SKIMMED BY THIS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE BARELY
SUFFICIENT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM PIT ON SOUTH. PROXIMITY TO
VORT LOBE PLUS TERRAIN EFFECTS MAY ALLOW FOR A BIT BETTER
COVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES. DEPARTURE OF DISTURBANCE
PLUS LOSS OF HEATING WILL END PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY 00Z
TUESDAY.

THEREAFTER...RIDGING WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY AND HOLD ON FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD. MIDLEVEL CAPPING
APPEARS MORE LIKELY ON TUESDAY...AND FOR NOW HAVE ONLY KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ALONG THE RIDGES. FOR WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...EMBEDDED IN THE GENERAL RIDGING
PATTERN...MAY ALLOW CAPPING TO BE OVERCOME SUFFICIENTLY FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION. EACH NIGHTTIME PERIOD SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL OF COURSE BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS PATTERN.
GENERALLY BLENDED MOSGUIDE WITH PREVIOUS VALUES FOR THE FORECAST.
WOULD EXPECT SOME READINGS AT OR JUST OVER THE 90 DEGREE LEVEL BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE OVERALL PATTERN ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE EASTERN
RIDGE HOLDING FIRM. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL TO THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...AN AREAWIDE SLIGHT CHANCE STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE. THE
SPRAWLING UPPER HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME THOUGH...SUCH
THAT THE RIDGES WOULD BE FAVORED MAINLY FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE JUST
TO THE EAST...AN IMPROVED MOISTURE FEED MAY SUPPORT ACTIVITY
AREAWIDE ONCE AGAIN. LITTLE ORGANIZATION IS FORESEEN THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH OVERALL PRECIPITATION TOTALS REMAINING
FAIRLY LOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 WILL
BE FEATURED EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS REGION...RESULTING IN SHOWERS
QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. SOME MVFR TO IFR
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR FKL/DUJ THROUGH MID-MORNING...BUT
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS FOR THE BULK OF
THE DAY.

CONTINUED GENERAL VFR CIGS LATER TODAY WITH ONLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AT BEST WITH WEAK UPPER SUPPORT AND SHALLOW MOISTURE.
ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301214
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
814 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWER CHANCES TODAY ACROSS THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION...WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING SHOWER CHANCES TO THE REGION. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS THIS
MORNING NEAR AND NORTH OF I 80 WHERE BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE IS
LOCATED.

OTHERWISE...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH UPPER SUPPORT IS PROGGED TO
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE. MENTIONED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH
WARMING MID LEVELS SHOULD HELP LIMIT INSTABILITY. HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ARE EXPECTED USING THE LATEST GFS MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A VORTICITY LOBE WILL LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TOWARDS
THE MIDATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA
WILL BE SKIMMED BY THIS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE BARELY
SUFFICIENT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM PIT ON SOUTH. PROXIMITY TO
VORT LOBE PLUS TERRAIN EFFECTS MAY ALLOW FOR A BIT BETTER
COVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES. DEPARTURE OF DISTURBANCE
PLUS LOSS OF HEATING WILL END PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY 00Z
TUESDAY.

THEREAFTER...RIDGING WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY AND HOLD ON FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD. MIDLEVEL CAPPING
APPEARS MORE LIKELY ON TUESDAY...AND FOR NOW HAVE ONLY KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ALONG THE RIDGES. FOR WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...EMBEDDED IN THE GENERAL RIDGING
PATTERN...MAY ALLOW CAPPING TO BE OVERCOME SUFFICIENTLY FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION. EACH NIGHTTIME PERIOD SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL OF COURSE BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS PATTERN.
GENERALLY BLENDED MOSGUIDE WITH PREVIOUS VALUES FOR THE FORECAST.
WOULD EXPECT SOME READINGS AT OR JUST OVER THE 90 DEGREE LEVEL BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE OVERALL PATTERN ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE EASTERN
RIDGE HOLDING FIRM. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL TO THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...AN AREAWIDE SLIGHT CHANCE STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE. THE
SPRAWLING UPPER HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME THOUGH...SUCH
THAT THE RIDGES WOULD BE FAVORED MAINLY FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE JUST
TO THE EAST...AN IMPROVED MOISTURE FEED MAY SUPPORT ACTIVITY
AREAWIDE ONCE AGAIN. LITTLE ORGANIZATION IS FORESEEN THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH OVERALL PRECIPITATION TOTALS REMAINING
FAIRLY LOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 WILL
BE FEATURED EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS REGION...RESULTING IN SHOWERS
QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. SOME MVFR TO IFR
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR FKL/DUJ THROUGH MID-MORNING...BUT
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS FOR THE BULK OF
THE DAY.

CONTINUED GENERAL VFR CIGS LATER TODAY WITH ONLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AT BEST WITH WEAK UPPER SUPPORT AND SHALLOW MOISTURE.
ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301022
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
622 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY AS A WEAKENING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING A FAIRLY WELL CONGEALED MASS OF
SHOWERS MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THIS RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE MODEST UPPER SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
300MB JET. EXPECTING A BREAK IN RAIN CHANCES BY MID-MORNING
AREAWIDE.

A BIT OF A TRANSITION PERIOD FOLLOWS AS THE WEAK FRONT CONTINUES
TO WASH OUT...AND RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. DESPITE
THE PRESENCE OF ANY ORGANIZED ASCENT...WEAK MESOSCALE IMPULSES
ALONG THE LINGERING BOUNDARY COULD COMBINE WITH MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE/SCATTERED WORDING THROUGH THE
EVENING. ALMOST ALL MOISTURE ABOVE 700MB EVACUATES THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS THE WEAK UPPER TROF PULLS AWAY. ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE ACROSS OUR SOUTH...PULLED UP BY SOUTHERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE
MORE THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS HEADING INTO THE SUNDAY OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A VORTICITY LOBE WILL LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TOWARDS
THE MIDATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA
WILL BE SKIMMED BY THIS MIDLEVEL SUPPORT. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE BARELY SUFFICIENT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM PIT ON
SOUTH. PROXIMITY TO VORT LOBE PLUS TERRAIN MAY ALLOW FOR A BIT
BETTER COVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES. DEPARTURE OF
DISTURBANCE PLUS LOSS OF HEATING WILL END PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY
00Z TUESDAY.

THEREAFTER...H500 RIDGING WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY AND HOLD ON FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD. MIDLEVEL CAPPING
APPEARS MORE LIKELY ON TUESDAY...AND FOR NOW HAVE ONLY KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ALONG THE RIDGES...WHERE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE EFFECT
MAY HELP TO PRODUCE A SHRA OR TSRA ON AN ISOLATED BASIS. FOR
WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...EMBEDDED IN
THE GENERAL RIDGING PATTERN...MAY ALLOW CAPPING TO BE OVERCOME
SUFFICIENTLY FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION. EACH NIGHTTIME PERIOD SHOULD
BE MOSTLY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL OF COURSE BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS PATTERN.
GENERALLY BLENDED MOSGUIDE WITH PREVIOUS VALUES FOR THE FORECAST.
WOULD EXPECT SOME READINGS AT OR JUST OVER THE 90 DEGREE LEVEL BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
CL

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE OVERALL PATTERN ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE EASTERN
RIDGE HOLDING FIRM. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL TO THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...AN AREAWIDE SLIGHT CHANCE STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE. THE
SPRAWLING UPPER HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME THOUGH...SUCH
THAT THE RIDGES WOULD BE FAVORED MAINLY FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE JUST
TO THE EAST...AN IMPROVED MOISTURE FEED MAY SUPPORT ACTIVITY
AREAWIDE ONCE AGAIN. LITTLE ORGANIZATION IS FORESEEN THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH OVERALL PRECIPITATION TOTALS REMAINING
FAIRLY LOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 WILL
BE FEATURED EACH DAY.
CL

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS REGION...RESULTING IN SHOWERS
QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. SOME MVFR
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR FKL/DUJ THROUGH MID-MORNING...BUT
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS FOR THE BULK OF
THE DAY.

CONTINUED GENERAL VFR CIGS LATER TODAY WITH ONLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AT BEST WITH WEAK UPPER SUPPORT AND SHALLOW MOISTURE.
ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY FROM THE WEST.
TAX

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301022
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
622 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY AS A WEAKENING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING A FAIRLY WELL CONGEALED MASS OF
SHOWERS MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THIS RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE MODEST UPPER SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
300MB JET. EXPECTING A BREAK IN RAIN CHANCES BY MID-MORNING
AREAWIDE.

A BIT OF A TRANSITION PERIOD FOLLOWS AS THE WEAK FRONT CONTINUES
TO WASH OUT...AND RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. DESPITE
THE PRESENCE OF ANY ORGANIZED ASCENT...WEAK MESOSCALE IMPULSES
ALONG THE LINGERING BOUNDARY COULD COMBINE WITH MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE/SCATTERED WORDING THROUGH THE
EVENING. ALMOST ALL MOISTURE ABOVE 700MB EVACUATES THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS THE WEAK UPPER TROF PULLS AWAY. ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE ACROSS OUR SOUTH...PULLED UP BY SOUTHERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE
MORE THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS HEADING INTO THE SUNDAY OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A VORTICITY LOBE WILL LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TOWARDS
THE MIDATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA
WILL BE SKIMMED BY THIS MIDLEVEL SUPPORT. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE BARELY SUFFICIENT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM PIT ON
SOUTH. PROXIMITY TO VORT LOBE PLUS TERRAIN MAY ALLOW FOR A BIT
BETTER COVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES. DEPARTURE OF
DISTURBANCE PLUS LOSS OF HEATING WILL END PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY
00Z TUESDAY.

THEREAFTER...H500 RIDGING WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY AND HOLD ON FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD. MIDLEVEL CAPPING
APPEARS MORE LIKELY ON TUESDAY...AND FOR NOW HAVE ONLY KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ALONG THE RIDGES...WHERE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE EFFECT
MAY HELP TO PRODUCE A SHRA OR TSRA ON AN ISOLATED BASIS. FOR
WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...EMBEDDED IN
THE GENERAL RIDGING PATTERN...MAY ALLOW CAPPING TO BE OVERCOME
SUFFICIENTLY FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION. EACH NIGHTTIME PERIOD SHOULD
BE MOSTLY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL OF COURSE BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS PATTERN.
GENERALLY BLENDED MOSGUIDE WITH PREVIOUS VALUES FOR THE FORECAST.
WOULD EXPECT SOME READINGS AT OR JUST OVER THE 90 DEGREE LEVEL BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
CL

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE OVERALL PATTERN ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE EASTERN
RIDGE HOLDING FIRM. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL TO THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...AN AREAWIDE SLIGHT CHANCE STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE. THE
SPRAWLING UPPER HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME THOUGH...SUCH
THAT THE RIDGES WOULD BE FAVORED MAINLY FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE JUST
TO THE EAST...AN IMPROVED MOISTURE FEED MAY SUPPORT ACTIVITY
AREAWIDE ONCE AGAIN. LITTLE ORGANIZATION IS FORESEEN THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH OVERALL PRECIPITATION TOTALS REMAINING
FAIRLY LOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 WILL
BE FEATURED EACH DAY.
CL

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS REGION...RESULTING IN SHOWERS
QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. SOME MVFR
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR FKL/DUJ THROUGH MID-MORNING...BUT
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS FOR THE BULK OF
THE DAY.

CONTINUED GENERAL VFR CIGS LATER TODAY WITH ONLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AT BEST WITH WEAK UPPER SUPPORT AND SHALLOW MOISTURE.
ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY FROM THE WEST.
TAX

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301022
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
622 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY AS A WEAKENING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING A FAIRLY WELL CONGEALED MASS OF
SHOWERS MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THIS RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE MODEST UPPER SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
300MB JET. EXPECTING A BREAK IN RAIN CHANCES BY MID-MORNING
AREAWIDE.

A BIT OF A TRANSITION PERIOD FOLLOWS AS THE WEAK FRONT CONTINUES
TO WASH OUT...AND RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. DESPITE
THE PRESENCE OF ANY ORGANIZED ASCENT...WEAK MESOSCALE IMPULSES
ALONG THE LINGERING BOUNDARY COULD COMBINE WITH MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE/SCATTERED WORDING THROUGH THE
EVENING. ALMOST ALL MOISTURE ABOVE 700MB EVACUATES THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS THE WEAK UPPER TROF PULLS AWAY. ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE ACROSS OUR SOUTH...PULLED UP BY SOUTHERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE
MORE THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS HEADING INTO THE SUNDAY OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A VORTICITY LOBE WILL LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TOWARDS
THE MIDATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA
WILL BE SKIMMED BY THIS MIDLEVEL SUPPORT. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE BARELY SUFFICIENT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM PIT ON
SOUTH. PROXIMITY TO VORT LOBE PLUS TERRAIN MAY ALLOW FOR A BIT
BETTER COVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES. DEPARTURE OF
DISTURBANCE PLUS LOSS OF HEATING WILL END PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY
00Z TUESDAY.

THEREAFTER...H500 RIDGING WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY AND HOLD ON FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD. MIDLEVEL CAPPING
APPEARS MORE LIKELY ON TUESDAY...AND FOR NOW HAVE ONLY KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ALONG THE RIDGES...WHERE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE EFFECT
MAY HELP TO PRODUCE A SHRA OR TSRA ON AN ISOLATED BASIS. FOR
WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...EMBEDDED IN
THE GENERAL RIDGING PATTERN...MAY ALLOW CAPPING TO BE OVERCOME
SUFFICIENTLY FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION. EACH NIGHTTIME PERIOD SHOULD
BE MOSTLY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL OF COURSE BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS PATTERN.
GENERALLY BLENDED MOSGUIDE WITH PREVIOUS VALUES FOR THE FORECAST.
WOULD EXPECT SOME READINGS AT OR JUST OVER THE 90 DEGREE LEVEL BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
CL

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE OVERALL PATTERN ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE EASTERN
RIDGE HOLDING FIRM. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL TO THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...AN AREAWIDE SLIGHT CHANCE STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE. THE
SPRAWLING UPPER HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME THOUGH...SUCH
THAT THE RIDGES WOULD BE FAVORED MAINLY FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE JUST
TO THE EAST...AN IMPROVED MOISTURE FEED MAY SUPPORT ACTIVITY
AREAWIDE ONCE AGAIN. LITTLE ORGANIZATION IS FORESEEN THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH OVERALL PRECIPITATION TOTALS REMAINING
FAIRLY LOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 WILL
BE FEATURED EACH DAY.
CL

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS REGION...RESULTING IN SHOWERS
QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. SOME MVFR
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR FKL/DUJ THROUGH MID-MORNING...BUT
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS FOR THE BULK OF
THE DAY.

CONTINUED GENERAL VFR CIGS LATER TODAY WITH ONLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AT BEST WITH WEAK UPPER SUPPORT AND SHALLOW MOISTURE.
ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY FROM THE WEST.
TAX

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300836
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
421 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY AS A WEAKENING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

LATEST MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING A FAIRLY WELL CONGEALED MASS OF
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN OHIO AHEAD OF A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE
TROF. CLOUDTOP TEMPERATURE TRENDS VIA IR SATELLITE SHOW
WARMING...WHICH COINCIDES WELL WITH THE WEAKENING OF INDIVIDUAL CELL
STRENGTH. STILL SOME UPPER SUPPORT STILL EXISTS IN THE FORM OF UPPER-
LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 300MB JET
STREAK...SO SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF
PITTSBURGH THROUGH DAYBREAK.


AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY COMES A BIT OF A TRANSITION AS THE FRONT
WASHES OUT. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF ANY ORGANIZED ASCENT...WEAK
MESOSCALE IMPULSES ALONG THE LINGERING BOUNDARY COULD COMBINE WITH
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE/SCATTERED WORDING THROUGH
THE EVENING. ALMOST ALL MOISTURE ABOVE 700MB EVACUATES THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS THE WEAK UPPER TROF PULLS AWAY. ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE ACROSS OUR SOUTH...PULLED UP BY SOUTHERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE MORE THAN
ISOLATED SHOWERS HEADING INTO THE SUNDAY OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A VORTICITY LOBE WILL LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TOWARDS
THE MIDATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA
WILL BE SKIMMED BY THIS MIDLEVEL SUPPORT. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE BARELY SUFFICIENT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM PIT ON
SOUTH. PROXIMITY TO VORT LOBE PLUS TERRAIN MAY ALLOW FOR A BIT
BETTER COVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES. DEPARTURE OF
DISTURBANCE PLUS LOSS OF HEATING WILL END PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY
00Z TUESDAY.

THEREAFTER...H500 RIDGING WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY AND HOLD ON FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD. MIDLEVEL CAPPING
APPEARS MORE LIKELY ON TUESDAY...AND FOR NOW HAVE ONLY KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ALONG THE RIDGES...WHERE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE EFFECT
MAY HELP TO PRODUCE A SHRA OR TSRA ON AN ISOLATED BASIS. FOR
WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...EMBEDDED IN
THE GENERAL RIDGING PATTERN...MAY ALLOW CAPPING TO BE OVERCOME
SUFFICIENTLY FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION. EACH NIGHTTIME PERIOD SHOULD
BE MOSTLY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL OF COURSE BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS PATTERN.
GENERALLY BLENDED MOSGUIDE WITH PREVIOUS VALUES FOR THE FORECAST.
WOULD EXPECT SOME READINGS AT OR JUST OVER THE 90 DEGREE LEVEL BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
CL

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE OVERALL PATTERN ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE EASTERN
RIDGE HOLDING FIRM. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL TO THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...AN AREAWIDE SLIGHT CHANCE STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE. THE
SPRAWLING UPPER HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME THOUGH...SUCH
THAT THE RIDGES WOULD BE FAVORED MAINLY FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE JUST
TO THE EAST...AN IMPROVED MOISTURE FEED MAY SUPPORT ACTIVITY
AREAWIDE ONCE AGAIN. LITTLE ORGANIZATION IS FORESEEN THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH OVERALL PRECIPITATION TOTALS REMAINING
FAIRLY LOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 WILL
BE FEATURED EACH DAY.
CL

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

UPPER-LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS REGION...RESULTING IN SHOWERS
BLOSSOMING OVER OHIO. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...SOME
MVFR RESTRICTIONS CAN BE SEEN FOR PIT/FKL/BVI/HLG THROUGH DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...NO RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AS WE FLIRT AGAIN WITH EDGE
OF THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY FROM THE
WEST. CONTINUED GENERAL VFR CIGS LATER TODAY WITH ONLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AT BEST WITH WEAK UPPER SUPPORT AND SHALLOW MOISTURE.
TAX

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300836
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
421 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY AS A WEAKENING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

LATEST MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING A FAIRLY WELL CONGEALED MASS OF
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN OHIO AHEAD OF A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE
TROF. CLOUDTOP TEMPERATURE TRENDS VIA IR SATELLITE SHOW
WARMING...WHICH COINCIDES WELL WITH THE WEAKENING OF INDIVIDUAL CELL
STRENGTH. STILL SOME UPPER SUPPORT STILL EXISTS IN THE FORM OF UPPER-
LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 300MB JET
STREAK...SO SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF
PITTSBURGH THROUGH DAYBREAK.


AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY COMES A BIT OF A TRANSITION AS THE FRONT
WASHES OUT. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF ANY ORGANIZED ASCENT...WEAK
MESOSCALE IMPULSES ALONG THE LINGERING BOUNDARY COULD COMBINE WITH
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE/SCATTERED WORDING THROUGH
THE EVENING. ALMOST ALL MOISTURE ABOVE 700MB EVACUATES THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS THE WEAK UPPER TROF PULLS AWAY. ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE ACROSS OUR SOUTH...PULLED UP BY SOUTHERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE MORE THAN
ISOLATED SHOWERS HEADING INTO THE SUNDAY OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A VORTICITY LOBE WILL LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TOWARDS
THE MIDATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA
WILL BE SKIMMED BY THIS MIDLEVEL SUPPORT. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE BARELY SUFFICIENT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM PIT ON
SOUTH. PROXIMITY TO VORT LOBE PLUS TERRAIN MAY ALLOW FOR A BIT
BETTER COVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES. DEPARTURE OF
DISTURBANCE PLUS LOSS OF HEATING WILL END PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY
00Z TUESDAY.

THEREAFTER...H500 RIDGING WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY AND HOLD ON FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD. MIDLEVEL CAPPING
APPEARS MORE LIKELY ON TUESDAY...AND FOR NOW HAVE ONLY KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ALONG THE RIDGES...WHERE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE EFFECT
MAY HELP TO PRODUCE A SHRA OR TSRA ON AN ISOLATED BASIS. FOR
WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...EMBEDDED IN
THE GENERAL RIDGING PATTERN...MAY ALLOW CAPPING TO BE OVERCOME
SUFFICIENTLY FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION. EACH NIGHTTIME PERIOD SHOULD
BE MOSTLY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL OF COURSE BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS PATTERN.
GENERALLY BLENDED MOSGUIDE WITH PREVIOUS VALUES FOR THE FORECAST.
WOULD EXPECT SOME READINGS AT OR JUST OVER THE 90 DEGREE LEVEL BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
CL

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE OVERALL PATTERN ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE EASTERN
RIDGE HOLDING FIRM. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL TO THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...AN AREAWIDE SLIGHT CHANCE STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE. THE
SPRAWLING UPPER HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME THOUGH...SUCH
THAT THE RIDGES WOULD BE FAVORED MAINLY FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE JUST
TO THE EAST...AN IMPROVED MOISTURE FEED MAY SUPPORT ACTIVITY
AREAWIDE ONCE AGAIN. LITTLE ORGANIZATION IS FORESEEN THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH OVERALL PRECIPITATION TOTALS REMAINING
FAIRLY LOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 WILL
BE FEATURED EACH DAY.
CL

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

UPPER-LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS REGION...RESULTING IN SHOWERS
BLOSSOMING OVER OHIO. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...SOME
MVFR RESTRICTIONS CAN BE SEEN FOR PIT/FKL/BVI/HLG THROUGH DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...NO RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AS WE FLIRT AGAIN WITH EDGE
OF THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY FROM THE
WEST. CONTINUED GENERAL VFR CIGS LATER TODAY WITH ONLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AT BEST WITH WEAK UPPER SUPPORT AND SHALLOW MOISTURE.
TAX

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300836
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
421 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY AS A WEAKENING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

LATEST MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING A FAIRLY WELL CONGEALED MASS OF
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN OHIO AHEAD OF A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE
TROF. CLOUDTOP TEMPERATURE TRENDS VIA IR SATELLITE SHOW
WARMING...WHICH COINCIDES WELL WITH THE WEAKENING OF INDIVIDUAL CELL
STRENGTH. STILL SOME UPPER SUPPORT STILL EXISTS IN THE FORM OF UPPER-
LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 300MB JET
STREAK...SO SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF
PITTSBURGH THROUGH DAYBREAK.


AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY COMES A BIT OF A TRANSITION AS THE FRONT
WASHES OUT. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF ANY ORGANIZED ASCENT...WEAK
MESOSCALE IMPULSES ALONG THE LINGERING BOUNDARY COULD COMBINE WITH
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE/SCATTERED WORDING THROUGH
THE EVENING. ALMOST ALL MOISTURE ABOVE 700MB EVACUATES THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS THE WEAK UPPER TROF PULLS AWAY. ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE ACROSS OUR SOUTH...PULLED UP BY SOUTHERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE MORE THAN
ISOLATED SHOWERS HEADING INTO THE SUNDAY OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A VORTICITY LOBE WILL LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TOWARDS
THE MIDATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA
WILL BE SKIMMED BY THIS MIDLEVEL SUPPORT. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE BARELY SUFFICIENT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM PIT ON
SOUTH. PROXIMITY TO VORT LOBE PLUS TERRAIN MAY ALLOW FOR A BIT
BETTER COVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES. DEPARTURE OF
DISTURBANCE PLUS LOSS OF HEATING WILL END PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY
00Z TUESDAY.

THEREAFTER...H500 RIDGING WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY AND HOLD ON FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD. MIDLEVEL CAPPING
APPEARS MORE LIKELY ON TUESDAY...AND FOR NOW HAVE ONLY KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ALONG THE RIDGES...WHERE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE EFFECT
MAY HELP TO PRODUCE A SHRA OR TSRA ON AN ISOLATED BASIS. FOR
WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...EMBEDDED IN
THE GENERAL RIDGING PATTERN...MAY ALLOW CAPPING TO BE OVERCOME
SUFFICIENTLY FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION. EACH NIGHTTIME PERIOD SHOULD
BE MOSTLY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL OF COURSE BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS PATTERN.
GENERALLY BLENDED MOSGUIDE WITH PREVIOUS VALUES FOR THE FORECAST.
WOULD EXPECT SOME READINGS AT OR JUST OVER THE 90 DEGREE LEVEL BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
CL

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE OVERALL PATTERN ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE EASTERN
RIDGE HOLDING FIRM. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL TO THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...AN AREAWIDE SLIGHT CHANCE STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE. THE
SPRAWLING UPPER HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME THOUGH...SUCH
THAT THE RIDGES WOULD BE FAVORED MAINLY FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE JUST
TO THE EAST...AN IMPROVED MOISTURE FEED MAY SUPPORT ACTIVITY
AREAWIDE ONCE AGAIN. LITTLE ORGANIZATION IS FORESEEN THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH OVERALL PRECIPITATION TOTALS REMAINING
FAIRLY LOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 WILL
BE FEATURED EACH DAY.
CL

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

UPPER-LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS REGION...RESULTING IN SHOWERS
BLOSSOMING OVER OHIO. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...SOME
MVFR RESTRICTIONS CAN BE SEEN FOR PIT/FKL/BVI/HLG THROUGH DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...NO RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AS WE FLIRT AGAIN WITH EDGE
OF THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY FROM THE
WEST. CONTINUED GENERAL VFR CIGS LATER TODAY WITH ONLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AT BEST WITH WEAK UPPER SUPPORT AND SHALLOW MOISTURE.
TAX

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300533
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
133 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY AS A WEAKENING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WEAKENING UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF CURRENTLY LOCATED IN
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OHIO. LATEST IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS COOLING CLOUD TOPS ALONG A LINE THROUGH
COLUMBUS AND INTO OUR EXTREME WESTERN ZONES. THIS COINCIDES WELL
WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ALONG WITH UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE 300MB JET STREAK. WHILE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR CONTINUE TO
UNDERWHELM...THESE MODEST FEATURES ALONE ARE ENOUGH TO PROLONG THE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

EXPECTING SHOWERS TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AS THE
UPPER TROF FLATTENS AND DEPARTS...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES OUT. AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY COMES A BIT OF A
TRANSITION AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF ANY
ORGANIZED ASCENT...WEAK MESOSCALE IMPULSES ALONG THE LINGERING
BOUNDARY COULD COMBINE WITH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY
CHANCE/SCATTERED WORDING THROUGH THE EVENING.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS ADVANCEMENT ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...AS ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT GRADUALLY DISSIPATES. CONTINUED WITH LOW
END POPS FOR SHOWERS AS ORGANIZED UPPER SUPPORT IS LACKING. A FEW
AFTERNOON STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY.

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS MAINLY SOUTH OF PIT SHOULD KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS ON MONDAY...THOUGH WARMING MID
LEVELS SHOULD CAP OFF THE ATMOSPHERE BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS
CAPPING...AND WEAK RIDGING...SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY WEATHER
ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE USING THE LATEST GFS MOS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
H500 RIDGING PATTERN TAKES HOLD THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
NO ORGANIZED WEATHER SYSTEMS FORESEEN THROUGH SATURDAY. APPEARS TO
BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION INTO
FRIDAY AT LEAST...AND ELECTED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EACH DAY.
HOWEVER...THE STRENGTH OF MID LEVEL CAPPING WILL NEED TO BE
EVALUATED AS TIME GOES ON TO DETERMINE THE DAILY PRECIP
CHANCES...WITH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PARTICULARLY NOTEWORTHY DRY
CANDIDATES. MORE CERTAIN IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONTINUED ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND HPC GUIDANCE WAS USED IN COMBINATION
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS REGION...RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BLOSSOMING OVER OHIO. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF MOST TERMINALS THROUGH
DAYBREAK...EXCEPT PERHAPS ZZV AND FKL. OTHERWISE...NO RESTRICTIONS
ARE EXPECTED AS WE FLIRT AGAIN WITH EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD
DECK. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY FROM THE WEST. CONTINUED GENERAL
VFR CIGS LATER TODAY WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AT BEST WITH
WEAK UPPER SUPPORT AND SHALLOW MOISTURE.
TAX

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300130 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
930 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN THROUGH SUNDAY AS A WEAKENING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
930PM UPDATE...WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS IN LINE WITH CURRENT
RADAR PICS...AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN NUDGED TOWARD LATEST GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
TONIGHT. THIS WAVE...AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WILL ALLOW FOR LOW END SHOWER CHANCES. INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED SO DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER FOR TONIGHT. LOWS SHOULD
AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE LATEST GFS
LAMP GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS ADVANCEMENT ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...AS ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT GRADUALLY DISSIPATES. CONTINUED WITH LOW
END POPS FOR SHOWERS AS ORGANIZED UPPER SUPPORT IS LACKING. A FEW
AFTERNOON STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY.

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS MAINLY SOUTH OF PIT SHOULD KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS ON MONDAY...THOUGH WARMING MID
LEVELS SHOULD CAP OFF THE ATMOSPHERE BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS
CAPPING...AND WEAK RIDGING...SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY WEATHER
ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE USING THE LATEST GFS MOS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
H500 RIDGING PATTERN TAKES HOLD THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
NO ORGANIZED WEATHER SYSTEMS FORESEEN THROUGH SATURDAY. APPEARS TO
BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION INTO
FRIDAY AT LEAST...AND ELECTED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EACH DAY.
HOWEVER...THE STRENGTH OF MID LEVEL CAPPING WILL NEED TO BE
EVALUATED AS TIME GOES ON TO DETERMINE THE DAILY PRECIP
CHANCES...WITH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PARTICULARLY NOTEWORTHY DRY
CANDIDATES. MORE CERTAIN IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONTINUED ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND HPC GUIDANCE WAS USED IN COMBINATION
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS EVENING WITH A WEST TO EAST
INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED AS FRONT
DISSIPATES ACROSS REGION LATER TONIGHT...NOT ENOUGH FOR ANY
MENTION AT ANY PORT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY FROM THE WEST.
CONTINUED GENERAL VFR CIGS SUNDAY WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AT
BEST WITH WEAK UPPER SUPPORT AND SHALLOW MOISTURE.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300130 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
930 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN THROUGH SUNDAY AS A WEAKENING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
930PM UPDATE...WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS IN LINE WITH CURRENT
RADAR PICS...AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN NUDGED TOWARD LATEST GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
TONIGHT. THIS WAVE...AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WILL ALLOW FOR LOW END SHOWER CHANCES. INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED SO DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER FOR TONIGHT. LOWS SHOULD
AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE LATEST GFS
LAMP GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS ADVANCEMENT ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...AS ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT GRADUALLY DISSIPATES. CONTINUED WITH LOW
END POPS FOR SHOWERS AS ORGANIZED UPPER SUPPORT IS LACKING. A FEW
AFTERNOON STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY.

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS MAINLY SOUTH OF PIT SHOULD KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS ON MONDAY...THOUGH WARMING MID
LEVELS SHOULD CAP OFF THE ATMOSPHERE BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS
CAPPING...AND WEAK RIDGING...SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY WEATHER
ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE USING THE LATEST GFS MOS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
H500 RIDGING PATTERN TAKES HOLD THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
NO ORGANIZED WEATHER SYSTEMS FORESEEN THROUGH SATURDAY. APPEARS TO
BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION INTO
FRIDAY AT LEAST...AND ELECTED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EACH DAY.
HOWEVER...THE STRENGTH OF MID LEVEL CAPPING WILL NEED TO BE
EVALUATED AS TIME GOES ON TO DETERMINE THE DAILY PRECIP
CHANCES...WITH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PARTICULARLY NOTEWORTHY DRY
CANDIDATES. MORE CERTAIN IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONTINUED ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND HPC GUIDANCE WAS USED IN COMBINATION
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS EVENING WITH A WEST TO EAST
INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED AS FRONT
DISSIPATES ACROSS REGION LATER TONIGHT...NOT ENOUGH FOR ANY
MENTION AT ANY PORT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY FROM THE WEST.
CONTINUED GENERAL VFR CIGS SUNDAY WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AT
BEST WITH WEAK UPPER SUPPORT AND SHALLOW MOISTURE.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 292235 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
635 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN THROUGH SUNDAY AS A WEAKENING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
630PM UPDATE...WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS IN LINE WITH CURRENT
RADAR PICS...AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF SHORTWAVE. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN NUDGED TOWARD LATEST
GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
TONIGHT. THIS WAVE...AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WILL ALLOW FOR LOW END SHOWER CHANCES. INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED SO DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER FOR TONIGHT. LOWS SHOULD
AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE LATEST GFS
LAMP GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS ADVANCEMENT ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...AS ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT GRADUALLY DISSIPATES. CONTINUED WITH LOW
END POPS FOR SHOWERS AS ORGANIZED UPPER SUPPORT IS LACKING. A FEW
AFTERNOON STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY.

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS MAINLY SOUTH OF PIT SHOULD KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS ON MONDAY...THOUGH WARMING MID
LEVELS SHOULD CAP OFF THE ATMOSPHERE BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS
CAPPING...AND WEAK RIDGING...SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY WEATHER
ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE USING THE LATEST GFS MOS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
H500 RIDGING PATTERN TAKES HOLD THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
NO ORGANIZED WEATHER SYSTEMS FORESEEN THROUGH SATURDAY. APPEARS TO
BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION INTO
FRIDAY AT LEAST...AND ELECTED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EACH DAY.
HOWEVER...THE STRENGTH OF MID LEVEL CAPPING WILL NEED TO BE
EVALUATED AS TIME GOES ON TO DETERMINE THE DAILY PRECIP
CHANCES...WITH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PARTICULARLY NOTEWORTHY DRY
CANDIDATES. MORE CERTAIN IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONTINUED ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND HPC GUIDANCE WAS USED IN COMBINATION
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS EVENING WITH A WEST TO EAST
INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED AS FRONT
DISSIPATES ACROSS REGION LATER TONIGHT...NOT ENOUGH FOR ANY
MENTION AT ANY PORT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY FROM THE WEST.
CONTINUED GENERAL VFR CIGS SUNDAY WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AT
BEST WITH WEAK UPPER SUPPORT AND SHALLOW MOISTURE.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 292235 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
635 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN THROUGH SUNDAY AS A WEAKENING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
630PM UPDATE...WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS IN LINE WITH CURRENT
RADAR PICS...AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF SHORTWAVE. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN NUDGED TOWARD LATEST
GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
TONIGHT. THIS WAVE...AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WILL ALLOW FOR LOW END SHOWER CHANCES. INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED SO DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER FOR TONIGHT. LOWS SHOULD
AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE LATEST GFS
LAMP GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS ADVANCEMENT ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...AS ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT GRADUALLY DISSIPATES. CONTINUED WITH LOW
END POPS FOR SHOWERS AS ORGANIZED UPPER SUPPORT IS LACKING. A FEW
AFTERNOON STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY.

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS MAINLY SOUTH OF PIT SHOULD KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS ON MONDAY...THOUGH WARMING MID
LEVELS SHOULD CAP OFF THE ATMOSPHERE BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS
CAPPING...AND WEAK RIDGING...SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY WEATHER
ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE USING THE LATEST GFS MOS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
H500 RIDGING PATTERN TAKES HOLD THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
NO ORGANIZED WEATHER SYSTEMS FORESEEN THROUGH SATURDAY. APPEARS TO
BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION INTO
FRIDAY AT LEAST...AND ELECTED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EACH DAY.
HOWEVER...THE STRENGTH OF MID LEVEL CAPPING WILL NEED TO BE
EVALUATED AS TIME GOES ON TO DETERMINE THE DAILY PRECIP
CHANCES...WITH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PARTICULARLY NOTEWORTHY DRY
CANDIDATES. MORE CERTAIN IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONTINUED ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND HPC GUIDANCE WAS USED IN COMBINATION
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS EVENING WITH A WEST TO EAST
INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED AS FRONT
DISSIPATES ACROSS REGION LATER TONIGHT...NOT ENOUGH FOR ANY
MENTION AT ANY PORT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY FROM THE WEST.
CONTINUED GENERAL VFR CIGS SUNDAY WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AT
BEST WITH WEAK UPPER SUPPORT AND SHALLOW MOISTURE.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291835
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
235 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN THROUGH SUNDAY AS A WEAKENING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
TONIGHT. THIS WAVE...AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WILL ALLOW FOR LOW END SHOWER CHANCES. INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED SO DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER FOR TONIGHT. LOWS SHOULD
AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE LATEST GFS
LAMP GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS ADVANCEMENT ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...AS ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT GRADUALLY DISSIPATES. CONTINUED WITH LOW
END POPS FOR SHOWERS AS ORGANIZED UPPER SUPPORT IS LACKING. A FEW
AFTERNOON STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY.

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS MAINLY SOUTH OF PIT SHOULD KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS ON MONDAY...THOUGH WARMING MID
LEVELS SHOULD CAP OFF THE ATMOSPHERE BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS
CAPPING...AND WEAK RIDGING...SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY WEATHER
ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE USING THE LATEST GFS MOS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
H500 RIDGING PATTERN TAKES HOLD THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
NO ORGANIZED WEATHER SYSTEMS FORESEEN THROUGH SATURDAY. APPEARS TO
BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION INTO
FRIDAY AT LEAST...AND ELECTED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EACH DAY.
HOWEVER...THE STRENGTH OF MID LEVEL CAPPING WILL NEED TO BE
EVALUATED AS TIME GOES ON TO DETERMINE THE DAILY PRECIP
CHANCES...WITH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PARTICULARLY NOTEWORTHY DRY
CANDIDATES. MORE CERTAIN IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONTINUED ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND HPC GUIDANCE WAS USED IN COMBINATION
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS EVENING WITH A WEST TO EAST
INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED AS FRONT
DISSIPATES ACROSS REGION LATER TONIGHT...NOT ENOUGH FOR ANY
MENTION AT ANY PORT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY FROM THE WEST.
CONTINUED GENERAL VFR CIGS SUNDAY WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AT
BEST WITH WEAK UPPER SUPPORT AND SHALLOW MOISTURE.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291835
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
235 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN THROUGH SUNDAY AS A WEAKENING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
TONIGHT. THIS WAVE...AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WILL ALLOW FOR LOW END SHOWER CHANCES. INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED SO DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER FOR TONIGHT. LOWS SHOULD
AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE LATEST GFS
LAMP GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS ADVANCEMENT ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...AS ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT GRADUALLY DISSIPATES. CONTINUED WITH LOW
END POPS FOR SHOWERS AS ORGANIZED UPPER SUPPORT IS LACKING. A FEW
AFTERNOON STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY.

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS MAINLY SOUTH OF PIT SHOULD KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS ON MONDAY...THOUGH WARMING MID
LEVELS SHOULD CAP OFF THE ATMOSPHERE BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS
CAPPING...AND WEAK RIDGING...SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY WEATHER
ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE USING THE LATEST GFS MOS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
H500 RIDGING PATTERN TAKES HOLD THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
NO ORGANIZED WEATHER SYSTEMS FORESEEN THROUGH SATURDAY. APPEARS TO
BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION INTO
FRIDAY AT LEAST...AND ELECTED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EACH DAY.
HOWEVER...THE STRENGTH OF MID LEVEL CAPPING WILL NEED TO BE
EVALUATED AS TIME GOES ON TO DETERMINE THE DAILY PRECIP
CHANCES...WITH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PARTICULARLY NOTEWORTHY DRY
CANDIDATES. MORE CERTAIN IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONTINUED ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND HPC GUIDANCE WAS USED IN COMBINATION
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS EVENING WITH A WEST TO EAST
INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED AS FRONT
DISSIPATES ACROSS REGION LATER TONIGHT...NOT ENOUGH FOR ANY
MENTION AT ANY PORT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY FROM THE WEST.
CONTINUED GENERAL VFR CIGS SUNDAY WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AT
BEST WITH WEAK UPPER SUPPORT AND SHALLOW MOISTURE.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291835
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
235 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN THROUGH SUNDAY AS A WEAKENING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
TONIGHT. THIS WAVE...AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WILL ALLOW FOR LOW END SHOWER CHANCES. INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED SO DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER FOR TONIGHT. LOWS SHOULD
AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE LATEST GFS
LAMP GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS ADVANCEMENT ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...AS ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT GRADUALLY DISSIPATES. CONTINUED WITH LOW
END POPS FOR SHOWERS AS ORGANIZED UPPER SUPPORT IS LACKING. A FEW
AFTERNOON STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY.

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS MAINLY SOUTH OF PIT SHOULD KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS ON MONDAY...THOUGH WARMING MID
LEVELS SHOULD CAP OFF THE ATMOSPHERE BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS
CAPPING...AND WEAK RIDGING...SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY WEATHER
ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE USING THE LATEST GFS MOS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
H500 RIDGING PATTERN TAKES HOLD THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
NO ORGANIZED WEATHER SYSTEMS FORESEEN THROUGH SATURDAY. APPEARS TO
BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION INTO
FRIDAY AT LEAST...AND ELECTED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EACH DAY.
HOWEVER...THE STRENGTH OF MID LEVEL CAPPING WILL NEED TO BE
EVALUATED AS TIME GOES ON TO DETERMINE THE DAILY PRECIP
CHANCES...WITH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PARTICULARLY NOTEWORTHY DRY
CANDIDATES. MORE CERTAIN IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONTINUED ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND HPC GUIDANCE WAS USED IN COMBINATION
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS EVENING WITH A WEST TO EAST
INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED AS FRONT
DISSIPATES ACROSS REGION LATER TONIGHT...NOT ENOUGH FOR ANY
MENTION AT ANY PORT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY FROM THE WEST.
CONTINUED GENERAL VFR CIGS SUNDAY WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AT
BEST WITH WEAK UPPER SUPPORT AND SHALLOW MOISTURE.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291835
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
235 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN THROUGH SUNDAY AS A WEAKENING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
TONIGHT. THIS WAVE...AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WILL ALLOW FOR LOW END SHOWER CHANCES. INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED SO DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER FOR TONIGHT. LOWS SHOULD
AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE LATEST GFS
LAMP GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS ADVANCEMENT ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...AS ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT GRADUALLY DISSIPATES. CONTINUED WITH LOW
END POPS FOR SHOWERS AS ORGANIZED UPPER SUPPORT IS LACKING. A FEW
AFTERNOON STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY.

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS MAINLY SOUTH OF PIT SHOULD KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS ON MONDAY...THOUGH WARMING MID
LEVELS SHOULD CAP OFF THE ATMOSPHERE BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS
CAPPING...AND WEAK RIDGING...SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY WEATHER
ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE USING THE LATEST GFS MOS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
H500 RIDGING PATTERN TAKES HOLD THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
NO ORGANIZED WEATHER SYSTEMS FORESEEN THROUGH SATURDAY. APPEARS TO
BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION INTO
FRIDAY AT LEAST...AND ELECTED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EACH DAY.
HOWEVER...THE STRENGTH OF MID LEVEL CAPPING WILL NEED TO BE
EVALUATED AS TIME GOES ON TO DETERMINE THE DAILY PRECIP
CHANCES...WITH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PARTICULARLY NOTEWORTHY DRY
CANDIDATES. MORE CERTAIN IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONTINUED ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND HPC GUIDANCE WAS USED IN COMBINATION
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS EVENING WITH A WEST TO EAST
INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED AS FRONT
DISSIPATES ACROSS REGION LATER TONIGHT...NOT ENOUGH FOR ANY
MENTION AT ANY PORT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY FROM THE WEST.
CONTINUED GENERAL VFR CIGS SUNDAY WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AT
BEST WITH WEAK UPPER SUPPORT AND SHALLOW MOISTURE.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291517
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1117 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A WARM AND DRY SATURDAY...RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN PA IS EXPECTED TO BRING DRY
AND WARM WEATHER TODAY. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY EVENING
WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO BRING
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS IT APPROACHES. THE PBZ
MORNING SOUNDING SUPPORTS HIGHS A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS
TODAY...WITH LOWS AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONT WILL SETTLE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY.  HOWEVER...WITH
MIDLEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENING AND PULLING OFF TO THE EAST...AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...THE FRONT WILL STRETCH OUT AND LARGELY
DISSIPATE.  ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.  COVERAGE WILL BE INFLUENCED BY
DIURNAL FACTORS...WITH A PEAK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  GOING TO
KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE DUE TO LACK OF LARGE-SCALE
FORCING...WITH VALUES DROPPING TO SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
TOTALS WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNDER A QUARTER INCH IN GENERAL...AND WILL
NOT DO MUCH TO ALLEVIATE THE OVERALL DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.

ON MONDAY...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL TRY TO SINK INTO
THE CWA...BUT WILL BE HINDERED BY WEAK MIDLEVEL ENERGY MOVING
NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  DO NOT THINK THAT THIS
FAIRLY DIFFUSE VORTICITY WILL MAKE IT TO THE PITTSBURGH AREA...BUT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR SOME ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-80.  SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP DURING THE DAY.
LOSS OF HEATING PLUS STRETCHING/WEAKENING OF VORT ENERGY WILL ALLOW
PRECIPITATION TO CEASE BY SUNSET.  DRIER AIR MAKES A LITTLE MORE
HEADWAY SOUTH ON TUESDAY...AND THINK ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION
WILL BE LIMITED TO SOUTH OF PIT.

BLENDED MOSGUIDE WITH GOING FORECAST TO DERIVE TEMPERATURES. NOT
MUCH CHANGE TO VALUES...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
H500 RIDGING PATTERN TAKES HOLD THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
NO ORGANIZED WEATHER SYSTEMS FORESEEN THROUGH SATURDAY. APPEARS TO
BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION INTO
FRIDAY AT LEAST...AND ELECTED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EACH DAY.
HOWEVER...THE STRENGTH OF MID- LEVEL CAPPING WILL NEED TO BE
EVALUATED AS TIME GOES ON TO DETERMINE THE DAILY PRECIP
CHANCES...WITH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PARTICULARLY NOTEWORTHY DRY
CANDIDATES. MORE CERTAIN IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONTINUED ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND HPC GUIDANCE WAS USED IN COMBINATION
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEST TO EAST
INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS TOWARD 00Z. ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
EXPECTED AS FRONT DISSIPATES ACROSS REGION LATER TONIGHT...NOT
ENOUGH FOR ANY MENTION AT ANY PORT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY
FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS SUNDAY. GENERAL
VFR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291249
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
849 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A WARM AND DRY SATURDAY...RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN PA IS EXPECTED TO BRING DRY
AND WARM WEATHER TODAY. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY EVENING
WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO BRING
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS IT APPROACHES. THE PBZ
MORNING SOUNDING SUPPORTS HIGHS A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS
TODAY...WITH LOWS AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONT WILL SETTLE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY.  HOWEVER...WITH
MIDLEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENING AND PULLING OFF TO THE EAST...AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...THE FRONT WILL STRETCH OUT AND LARGELY
DISSIPATE.  ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.  COVERAGE WILL BE INFLUENCED BY
DIURNAL FACTORS...WITH A PEAK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  GOING TO
KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE DUE TO LACK OF LARGE-SCALE
FORCING...WITH VALUES DROPPING TO SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
TOTALS WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNDER A QUARTER INCH IN GENERAL...AND WILL
NOT DO MUCH TO ALLEVIATE THE OVERALL DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.

ON MONDAY...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL TRY TO SINK INTO
THE CWA...BUT WILL BE HINDERED BY WEAK MIDLEVEL ENERGY MOVING
NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  DO NOT THINK THAT THIS
FAIRLY DIFFUSE VORTICITY WILL MAKE IT TO THE PITTSBURGH AREA...BUT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR SOME ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-80.  SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP DURING THE DAY.
LOSS OF HEATING PLUS STRETCHING/WEAKENING OF VORT ENERGY WILL ALLOW
PRECIPITATION TO CEASE BY SUNSET.  DRIER AIR MAKES A LITTLE MORE
HEADWAY SOUTH ON TUESDAY...AND THINK ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION
WILL BE LIMITED TO SOUTH OF PIT.

BLENDED MOSGUIDE WITH GOING FORECAST TO DERIVE TEMPERATURES. NOT
MUCH CHANGE TO VALUES...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
H500 RIDGING PATTERN TAKES HOLD THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
NO ORGANIZED WEATHER SYSTEMS FORESEEN THROUGH SATURDAY. APPEARS TO
BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION INTO
FRIDAY AT LEAST...AND ELECTED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EACH DAY.
HOWEVER...THE STRENGTH OF MID- LEVEL CAPPING WILL NEED TO BE
EVALUATED AS TIME GOES ON TO DETERMINE THE DAILY PRECIP
CHANCES...WITH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PARTICULARLY NOTEWORTHY DRY
CANDIDATES. MORE CERTAIN IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONTINUED ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND HPC GUIDANCE WAS USED IN COMBINATION
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE AREA WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
EXPECTING HIGH CLOUDS TO GIVE WAY TO DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME RAIN CHANCES EXIST WITH A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHING LATE TONIGHT EARLY SUNDAY...BUT WITH WEAKENING
DYNAMICS AND POOR TIMING...PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND
ISOLATED IN NATURE. THAT LIGHT SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
INCREASE TO 5-10KTS WHILE VEERING TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291249
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
849 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A WARM AND DRY SATURDAY...RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN PA IS EXPECTED TO BRING DRY
AND WARM WEATHER TODAY. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY EVENING
WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO BRING
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS IT APPROACHES. THE PBZ
MORNING SOUNDING SUPPORTS HIGHS A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS
TODAY...WITH LOWS AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONT WILL SETTLE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY.  HOWEVER...WITH
MIDLEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENING AND PULLING OFF TO THE EAST...AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...THE FRONT WILL STRETCH OUT AND LARGELY
DISSIPATE.  ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.  COVERAGE WILL BE INFLUENCED BY
DIURNAL FACTORS...WITH A PEAK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  GOING TO
KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE DUE TO LACK OF LARGE-SCALE
FORCING...WITH VALUES DROPPING TO SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
TOTALS WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNDER A QUARTER INCH IN GENERAL...AND WILL
NOT DO MUCH TO ALLEVIATE THE OVERALL DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.

ON MONDAY...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL TRY TO SINK INTO
THE CWA...BUT WILL BE HINDERED BY WEAK MIDLEVEL ENERGY MOVING
NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  DO NOT THINK THAT THIS
FAIRLY DIFFUSE VORTICITY WILL MAKE IT TO THE PITTSBURGH AREA...BUT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR SOME ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-80.  SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP DURING THE DAY.
LOSS OF HEATING PLUS STRETCHING/WEAKENING OF VORT ENERGY WILL ALLOW
PRECIPITATION TO CEASE BY SUNSET.  DRIER AIR MAKES A LITTLE MORE
HEADWAY SOUTH ON TUESDAY...AND THINK ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION
WILL BE LIMITED TO SOUTH OF PIT.

BLENDED MOSGUIDE WITH GOING FORECAST TO DERIVE TEMPERATURES. NOT
MUCH CHANGE TO VALUES...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
H500 RIDGING PATTERN TAKES HOLD THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
NO ORGANIZED WEATHER SYSTEMS FORESEEN THROUGH SATURDAY. APPEARS TO
BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION INTO
FRIDAY AT LEAST...AND ELECTED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EACH DAY.
HOWEVER...THE STRENGTH OF MID- LEVEL CAPPING WILL NEED TO BE
EVALUATED AS TIME GOES ON TO DETERMINE THE DAILY PRECIP
CHANCES...WITH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PARTICULARLY NOTEWORTHY DRY
CANDIDATES. MORE CERTAIN IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONTINUED ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND HPC GUIDANCE WAS USED IN COMBINATION
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE AREA WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
EXPECTING HIGH CLOUDS TO GIVE WAY TO DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME RAIN CHANCES EXIST WITH A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHING LATE TONIGHT EARLY SUNDAY...BUT WITH WEAKENING
DYNAMICS AND POOR TIMING...PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND
ISOLATED IN NATURE. THAT LIGHT SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
INCREASE TO 5-10KTS WHILE VEERING TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291017
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
617 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL HOLD TODAY AS TEMPERATURES INCREASE. RAIN
CHANCES RETURN LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SKIRT OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES...BUT SKIES
HAVE REMAINED GENERALLY CLEAR AREA-WIDE. THIS MEANS THAT ANOTHER
COOL MORNING IS ON TAP WITH PATCHY FOG.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND FAIRLY QUICKLY TODAY AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW VEERS TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. UPPER-LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL
APPROACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT COPIOUS DRY AIR AND
WEAKENING DYNAMICS WILL KEEP THE BULK OF SATURDAY DRY. BY THE TIME
THE WEAKENING FRONT REACHES THE AREA...TIMING WILL BE UNFAVORABLE
FOR CONTINUED CONVECTIVE GROWTH. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT
CHANCE/ISOLATED WORDING FOR POPS TONIGHT.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONT WILL SETTLE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY.  HOWEVER...WITH
MIDLEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENING AND PULLING OFF TO THE EAST...AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...THE FRONT WILL STRETCH OUT AND LARGELY
DISSIPATE.  ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.  COVERAGE WILL BE INFLUENCED BY
DIURNAL FACTORS...WITH A PEAK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  GOING TO
KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE DUE TO LACK OF LARGE-SCALE
FORCING...WITH VALUES DROPPING TO SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
TOTALS WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNDER A QUARTER INCH IN GENERAL...AND WILL
NOT DO MUCH TO ALLEVIATE THE OVERALL DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.

ON MONDAY...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL TRY TO SINK INTO
THE CWA...BUT WILL BE HINDERED BY WEAK MIDLEVEL ENERGY MOVING
NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  DO NOT THINK THAT THIS
FAIRLY DIFFUSE VORTICITY WILL MAKE IT TO THE PITTSBURGH AREA...BUT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR SOME ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-80.  SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP DURING THE DAY.
LOSS OF HEATING PLUS STRETCHING/WEAKENING OF VORT ENERGY WILL ALLOW
PRECIPITATION TO CEASE BY SUNSET.  DRIER AIR MAKES A LITTLE MORE
HEADWAY SOUTH ON TUESDAY...AND THINK ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION
WILL BE LIMITED TO SOUTH OF PIT.

BLENDED MOSGUIDE WITH GOING FORECAST TO DERIVE TEMPERATURES. NOT
MUCH CHANGE TO VALUES...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
H500 RIDGING PATTERN TAKES HOLD THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
NO ORGANIZED WEATHER SYSTEMS FORESEEN THROUGH SATURDAY. APPEARS TO
BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION INTO
FRIDAY AT LEAST...AND ELECTED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EACH DAY.
HOWEVER...THE STRENGTH OF MID- LEVEL CAPPING WILL NEED TO BE
EVALUATED AS TIME GOES ON TO DETERMINE THE DAILY PRECIP
CHANCES...WITH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PARTICULARLY NOTEWORTHY DRY
CANDIDATES. MORE CERTAIN IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONTINUED ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND HPC GUIDANCE WAS USED IN COMBINATION
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING COULD LEAD TO SOME TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS
UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...THE AREA WILL REMAIN
RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXPECTING HIGH CLOUDS TO GIVE WAY TO DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME RAIN CHANCES EXIST WITH A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHING LATE TONIGHT EARLY SUNDAY...BUT WITH WEAKENING
DYNAMICS AND POOR TIMING...PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND
ISOLATED IN NATURE. THAT LIGHT SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
INCREASE TO 5-10KTS WHILE VEERING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.
TAX

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291017
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
617 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL HOLD TODAY AS TEMPERATURES INCREASE. RAIN
CHANCES RETURN LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SKIRT OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES...BUT SKIES
HAVE REMAINED GENERALLY CLEAR AREA-WIDE. THIS MEANS THAT ANOTHER
COOL MORNING IS ON TAP WITH PATCHY FOG.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND FAIRLY QUICKLY TODAY AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW VEERS TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. UPPER-LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL
APPROACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT COPIOUS DRY AIR AND
WEAKENING DYNAMICS WILL KEEP THE BULK OF SATURDAY DRY. BY THE TIME
THE WEAKENING FRONT REACHES THE AREA...TIMING WILL BE UNFAVORABLE
FOR CONTINUED CONVECTIVE GROWTH. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT
CHANCE/ISOLATED WORDING FOR POPS TONIGHT.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONT WILL SETTLE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY.  HOWEVER...WITH
MIDLEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENING AND PULLING OFF TO THE EAST...AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...THE FRONT WILL STRETCH OUT AND LARGELY
DISSIPATE.  ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.  COVERAGE WILL BE INFLUENCED BY
DIURNAL FACTORS...WITH A PEAK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  GOING TO
KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE DUE TO LACK OF LARGE-SCALE
FORCING...WITH VALUES DROPPING TO SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
TOTALS WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNDER A QUARTER INCH IN GENERAL...AND WILL
NOT DO MUCH TO ALLEVIATE THE OVERALL DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.

ON MONDAY...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL TRY TO SINK INTO
THE CWA...BUT WILL BE HINDERED BY WEAK MIDLEVEL ENERGY MOVING
NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  DO NOT THINK THAT THIS
FAIRLY DIFFUSE VORTICITY WILL MAKE IT TO THE PITTSBURGH AREA...BUT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR SOME ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-80.  SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP DURING THE DAY.
LOSS OF HEATING PLUS STRETCHING/WEAKENING OF VORT ENERGY WILL ALLOW
PRECIPITATION TO CEASE BY SUNSET.  DRIER AIR MAKES A LITTLE MORE
HEADWAY SOUTH ON TUESDAY...AND THINK ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION
WILL BE LIMITED TO SOUTH OF PIT.

BLENDED MOSGUIDE WITH GOING FORECAST TO DERIVE TEMPERATURES. NOT
MUCH CHANGE TO VALUES...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
H500 RIDGING PATTERN TAKES HOLD THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
NO ORGANIZED WEATHER SYSTEMS FORESEEN THROUGH SATURDAY. APPEARS TO
BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION INTO
FRIDAY AT LEAST...AND ELECTED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EACH DAY.
HOWEVER...THE STRENGTH OF MID- LEVEL CAPPING WILL NEED TO BE
EVALUATED AS TIME GOES ON TO DETERMINE THE DAILY PRECIP
CHANCES...WITH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PARTICULARLY NOTEWORTHY DRY
CANDIDATES. MORE CERTAIN IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONTINUED ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND HPC GUIDANCE WAS USED IN COMBINATION
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING COULD LEAD TO SOME TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS
UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...THE AREA WILL REMAIN
RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXPECTING HIGH CLOUDS TO GIVE WAY TO DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME RAIN CHANCES EXIST WITH A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHING LATE TONIGHT EARLY SUNDAY...BUT WITH WEAKENING
DYNAMICS AND POOR TIMING...PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND
ISOLATED IN NATURE. THAT LIGHT SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
INCREASE TO 5-10KTS WHILE VEERING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.
TAX

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290804
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
359 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL HOLD TODAY AS TEMPERATURES INCREASE. RAIN
CHANCES RETURN LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SKIRT OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES...BUT SKIES
HAVE REMAINED GENERALLY CLEAR AREA-WIDE. THIS AND THE VAST AMOUNT OF
LOW TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES TRENDING
SHARPLY COOLER. TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE OF URBAN CORRIDORS AND MAINSTEM
RIVER VALLEYS ALREADY PUSHING THE 50 DEGREE MARK.

THE LOWER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH STEADY DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S MEANS ANOTHER MORNING OF PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED. HAVE
INSERTED THE MENTION OF FOG IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...PRIMARILY
HOLDING TO THE RIVER VALLEYS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND FAIRLY QUICKLY TODAY AFTER SUNRISE AS
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. UPPER-LEVEL TROF
AXIS WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT COPIOUS DRY
AIR AND WEAKENING DYNAMICS WILL KEEP THE BULK OF SATURDAY DRY. BY
THE TIME THE WEAKENING FRONT REACHES THE AREA...CONDITIONS WILL BE
UNFAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED CONVECTIVE GROWTH. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT
CHANCE/ISOLATED WORDING FOR POPS TONIGHT.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONT WILL SETTLE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY.  HOWEVER...WITH
MIDLEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENING AND PULLING OFF TO THE EAST...AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...THE FRONT WILL STRETCH OUT AND LARGELY
DISSIPATE.  ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.  COVERAGE WILL BE INFLUENCED BY
DIURNAL FACTORS...WITH A PEAK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  GOING TO
KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE DUE TO LACK OF LARGE-SCALE
FORCING...WITH VALUES DROPPING TO SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
TOTALS WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNDER A QUARTER INCH IN GENERAL...AND WILL
NOT DO MUCH TO ALLEVIATE THE OVERALL DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.

ON MONDAY...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL TRY TO SINK INTO
THE CWA...BUT WILL BE HINDERED BY WEAK MIDLEVEL ENERGY MOVING
NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  DO NOT THINK THAT THIS
FAIRLY DIFFUSE VORTICITY WILL MAKE IT TO THE PITTSBURGH AREA...BUT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR SOME ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-80.  SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP DURING THE DAY.
LOSS OF HEATING PLUS STRETCHING/WEAKENING OF VORT ENERGY WILL ALLOW
PRECIPITATION TO CEASE BY SUNSET.  DRIER AIR MAKES A LITTLE MORE
HEADWAY SOUTH ON TUESDAY...AND THINK ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION
WILL BE LIMITED TO SOUTH OF PIT.

BLENDED MOSGUIDE WITH GOING FORECAST TO DERIVE TEMPERATURES. NOT
MUCH CHANGE TO VALUES...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
H500 RIDGING PATTERN TAKES HOLD THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
NO ORGANIZED WEATHER SYSTEMS FORESEEN THROUGH SATURDAY. APPEARS TO
BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION INTO
FRIDAY AT LEAST...AND ELECTED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EACH DAY.
HOWEVER...THE STRENGTH OF MID- LEVEL CAPPING WILL NEED TO BE
EVALUATED AS TIME GOES ON TO DETERMINE THE DAILY PRECIP
CHANCES...WITH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PARTICULARLY NOTEWORTHY DRY
CANDIDATES. MORE CERTAIN IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONTINUED ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND HPC GUIDANCE WAS USED IN COMBINATION
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUICKLY FALLING TEMPERATURES AND STEADY DEWPOINTS WILL AGAIN
COMBINE FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG CONDITIONS...MAINLY IN
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE LOCATIONS. HAVE INCLUDED IFR FOG TEMPO
GROUPS FOR BVI/HLG/ZZV/FKL/DUJ WITH THIS UPDATE. THE ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT AT THIS POINT IS WHETHER THE HIGH CLOUDS CAN INCREASE
THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AND HOLD OFF THE RADIATIONAL COOLING.

OUTSIDE OF THE MORNING FOG CHANCES...THE AREA WILL REMAIN
RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXPECTING HIGH CLOUDS TO GIVE WAY TO DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO
5-10KTS WHILE VEERING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.
TAX

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290804
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
359 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL HOLD TODAY AS TEMPERATURES INCREASE. RAIN
CHANCES RETURN LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SKIRT OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES...BUT SKIES
HAVE REMAINED GENERALLY CLEAR AREA-WIDE. THIS AND THE VAST AMOUNT OF
LOW TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES TRENDING
SHARPLY COOLER. TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE OF URBAN CORRIDORS AND MAINSTEM
RIVER VALLEYS ALREADY PUSHING THE 50 DEGREE MARK.

THE LOWER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH STEADY DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S MEANS ANOTHER MORNING OF PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED. HAVE
INSERTED THE MENTION OF FOG IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...PRIMARILY
HOLDING TO THE RIVER VALLEYS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND FAIRLY QUICKLY TODAY AFTER SUNRISE AS
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. UPPER-LEVEL TROF
AXIS WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT COPIOUS DRY
AIR AND WEAKENING DYNAMICS WILL KEEP THE BULK OF SATURDAY DRY. BY
THE TIME THE WEAKENING FRONT REACHES THE AREA...CONDITIONS WILL BE
UNFAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED CONVECTIVE GROWTH. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT
CHANCE/ISOLATED WORDING FOR POPS TONIGHT.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONT WILL SETTLE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY.  HOWEVER...WITH
MIDLEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENING AND PULLING OFF TO THE EAST...AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...THE FRONT WILL STRETCH OUT AND LARGELY
DISSIPATE.  ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.  COVERAGE WILL BE INFLUENCED BY
DIURNAL FACTORS...WITH A PEAK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  GOING TO
KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE DUE TO LACK OF LARGE-SCALE
FORCING...WITH VALUES DROPPING TO SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
TOTALS WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNDER A QUARTER INCH IN GENERAL...AND WILL
NOT DO MUCH TO ALLEVIATE THE OVERALL DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.

ON MONDAY...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL TRY TO SINK INTO
THE CWA...BUT WILL BE HINDERED BY WEAK MIDLEVEL ENERGY MOVING
NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  DO NOT THINK THAT THIS
FAIRLY DIFFUSE VORTICITY WILL MAKE IT TO THE PITTSBURGH AREA...BUT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR SOME ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-80.  SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP DURING THE DAY.
LOSS OF HEATING PLUS STRETCHING/WEAKENING OF VORT ENERGY WILL ALLOW
PRECIPITATION TO CEASE BY SUNSET.  DRIER AIR MAKES A LITTLE MORE
HEADWAY SOUTH ON TUESDAY...AND THINK ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION
WILL BE LIMITED TO SOUTH OF PIT.

BLENDED MOSGUIDE WITH GOING FORECAST TO DERIVE TEMPERATURES. NOT
MUCH CHANGE TO VALUES...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
H500 RIDGING PATTERN TAKES HOLD THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
NO ORGANIZED WEATHER SYSTEMS FORESEEN THROUGH SATURDAY. APPEARS TO
BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION INTO
FRIDAY AT LEAST...AND ELECTED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EACH DAY.
HOWEVER...THE STRENGTH OF MID- LEVEL CAPPING WILL NEED TO BE
EVALUATED AS TIME GOES ON TO DETERMINE THE DAILY PRECIP
CHANCES...WITH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PARTICULARLY NOTEWORTHY DRY
CANDIDATES. MORE CERTAIN IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONTINUED ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND HPC GUIDANCE WAS USED IN COMBINATION
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUICKLY FALLING TEMPERATURES AND STEADY DEWPOINTS WILL AGAIN
COMBINE FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG CONDITIONS...MAINLY IN
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE LOCATIONS. HAVE INCLUDED IFR FOG TEMPO
GROUPS FOR BVI/HLG/ZZV/FKL/DUJ WITH THIS UPDATE. THE ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT AT THIS POINT IS WHETHER THE HIGH CLOUDS CAN INCREASE
THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AND HOLD OFF THE RADIATIONAL COOLING.

OUTSIDE OF THE MORNING FOG CHANCES...THE AREA WILL REMAIN
RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXPECTING HIGH CLOUDS TO GIVE WAY TO DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO
5-10KTS WHILE VEERING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.
TAX

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290517
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
117 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL HOLD TODAY AS TEMPERATURES INCREASE. RAIN
CHANCES RETURN LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SKIRT OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES...BUT SKIES
HAVE REMAINED GENERALLY CLEAR AREA-WIDE. THIS AND THE VAST AMOUNT
OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR HAS RESULTED IN YET ANOTHER QUICK COOL
DOWN IN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. GLANCING AT OBSERVATIONS AROUND
THE FORECAST AREA SHOW TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE OF URBAN CORRIDORS AND
MAINSTEM RIVER VALLEYS REACHING INTO THE MID 50S ALREADY.
FORECAST LOW MARKS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED DOWN A FEW DEGREES PRETTY
MUCH ACROSS THE BOARD.

THE LOWER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH STEADY DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S MEANS ANOTHER MORNING OF PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE. IN
FACT...HAVE ALREADY SEEN A FEW CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE
LOCATIONS DROP VISIBILITY UNDER PATCHY FOG CONDITIONS. HAVE
INSERTED THE MENTION OF FOG IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...PRIMARILY
HOLDING TO THE RIVER VALLEYS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND FAIRLY QUICKLY TODAY AFTER SUNRISE AS
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. UPPER-LEVEL TROF
AXIS WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT COPIOUS DRY
AIR AND WEAKENING DYNAMICS WILL KEEP THE BULK OF SATURDAY DRY. TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AT THIS POINT...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL LATER SUNDAY
WHEN THE FRONT CROSSES. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE FRONT
STRETCHING AND BECOMING RATHER DIFFUSE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY PROGGED...MAINTAINED THE CHANCE
POPS THAT WERE INHERITED BY THE MID SHIFT.

TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WARM TEMPERATURES
AND SUPPRESS PRECIP NEXT WEEK. TWEAKED WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUICKLY FALLING TEMPERATURES AND STEADY DEWPOINTS WILL AGAIN
COMBINE FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG CONDITIONS...MAINLY IN
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE LOCATIONS. HAVE INCLUDED IFR FOG TEMPO
GROUPS FOR BVI/HLG/ZZV/FKL/DUJ WITH THIS UPDATE. THE ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT AT THIS POINT IS WHETHER THE HIGH CLOUDS CAN INCREASE
THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AND HOLD OFF THE RADIATIONAL COOLING.

OUTSIDE OF THE MORNING FOG CHANCES...THE AREA WILL REMAIN
RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXPECTING HIGH CLOUDS TO GIVE WAY TO DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO
5-10KTS WHILE VEERING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.
TAX

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290517
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
117 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL HOLD TODAY AS TEMPERATURES INCREASE. RAIN
CHANCES RETURN LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SKIRT OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES...BUT SKIES
HAVE REMAINED GENERALLY CLEAR AREA-WIDE. THIS AND THE VAST AMOUNT
OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR HAS RESULTED IN YET ANOTHER QUICK COOL
DOWN IN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. GLANCING AT OBSERVATIONS AROUND
THE FORECAST AREA SHOW TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE OF URBAN CORRIDORS AND
MAINSTEM RIVER VALLEYS REACHING INTO THE MID 50S ALREADY.
FORECAST LOW MARKS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED DOWN A FEW DEGREES PRETTY
MUCH ACROSS THE BOARD.

THE LOWER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH STEADY DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S MEANS ANOTHER MORNING OF PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE. IN
FACT...HAVE ALREADY SEEN A FEW CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE
LOCATIONS DROP VISIBILITY UNDER PATCHY FOG CONDITIONS. HAVE
INSERTED THE MENTION OF FOG IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...PRIMARILY
HOLDING TO THE RIVER VALLEYS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND FAIRLY QUICKLY TODAY AFTER SUNRISE AS
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. UPPER-LEVEL TROF
AXIS WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT COPIOUS DRY
AIR AND WEAKENING DYNAMICS WILL KEEP THE BULK OF SATURDAY DRY. TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AT THIS POINT...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL LATER SUNDAY
WHEN THE FRONT CROSSES. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE FRONT
STRETCHING AND BECOMING RATHER DIFFUSE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY PROGGED...MAINTAINED THE CHANCE
POPS THAT WERE INHERITED BY THE MID SHIFT.

TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WARM TEMPERATURES
AND SUPPRESS PRECIP NEXT WEEK. TWEAKED WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUICKLY FALLING TEMPERATURES AND STEADY DEWPOINTS WILL AGAIN
COMBINE FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG CONDITIONS...MAINLY IN
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE LOCATIONS. HAVE INCLUDED IFR FOG TEMPO
GROUPS FOR BVI/HLG/ZZV/FKL/DUJ WITH THIS UPDATE. THE ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT AT THIS POINT IS WHETHER THE HIGH CLOUDS CAN INCREASE
THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AND HOLD OFF THE RADIATIONAL COOLING.

OUTSIDE OF THE MORNING FOG CHANCES...THE AREA WILL REMAIN
RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXPECTING HIGH CLOUDS TO GIVE WAY TO DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO
5-10KTS WHILE VEERING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.
TAX

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290517
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
117 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL HOLD TODAY AS TEMPERATURES INCREASE. RAIN
CHANCES RETURN LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SKIRT OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES...BUT SKIES
HAVE REMAINED GENERALLY CLEAR AREA-WIDE. THIS AND THE VAST AMOUNT
OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR HAS RESULTED IN YET ANOTHER QUICK COOL
DOWN IN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. GLANCING AT OBSERVATIONS AROUND
THE FORECAST AREA SHOW TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE OF URBAN CORRIDORS AND
MAINSTEM RIVER VALLEYS REACHING INTO THE MID 50S ALREADY.
FORECAST LOW MARKS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED DOWN A FEW DEGREES PRETTY
MUCH ACROSS THE BOARD.

THE LOWER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH STEADY DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S MEANS ANOTHER MORNING OF PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE. IN
FACT...HAVE ALREADY SEEN A FEW CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE
LOCATIONS DROP VISIBILITY UNDER PATCHY FOG CONDITIONS. HAVE
INSERTED THE MENTION OF FOG IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...PRIMARILY
HOLDING TO THE RIVER VALLEYS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND FAIRLY QUICKLY TODAY AFTER SUNRISE AS
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. UPPER-LEVEL TROF
AXIS WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT COPIOUS DRY
AIR AND WEAKENING DYNAMICS WILL KEEP THE BULK OF SATURDAY DRY. TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AT THIS POINT...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL LATER SUNDAY
WHEN THE FRONT CROSSES. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE FRONT
STRETCHING AND BECOMING RATHER DIFFUSE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY PROGGED...MAINTAINED THE CHANCE
POPS THAT WERE INHERITED BY THE MID SHIFT.

TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WARM TEMPERATURES
AND SUPPRESS PRECIP NEXT WEEK. TWEAKED WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUICKLY FALLING TEMPERATURES AND STEADY DEWPOINTS WILL AGAIN
COMBINE FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG CONDITIONS...MAINLY IN
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE LOCATIONS. HAVE INCLUDED IFR FOG TEMPO
GROUPS FOR BVI/HLG/ZZV/FKL/DUJ WITH THIS UPDATE. THE ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT AT THIS POINT IS WHETHER THE HIGH CLOUDS CAN INCREASE
THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AND HOLD OFF THE RADIATIONAL COOLING.

OUTSIDE OF THE MORNING FOG CHANCES...THE AREA WILL REMAIN
RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXPECTING HIGH CLOUDS TO GIVE WAY TO DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO
5-10KTS WHILE VEERING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.
TAX

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290517
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
117 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL HOLD TODAY AS TEMPERATURES INCREASE. RAIN
CHANCES RETURN LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SKIRT OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES...BUT SKIES
HAVE REMAINED GENERALLY CLEAR AREA-WIDE. THIS AND THE VAST AMOUNT
OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR HAS RESULTED IN YET ANOTHER QUICK COOL
DOWN IN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. GLANCING AT OBSERVATIONS AROUND
THE FORECAST AREA SHOW TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE OF URBAN CORRIDORS AND
MAINSTEM RIVER VALLEYS REACHING INTO THE MID 50S ALREADY.
FORECAST LOW MARKS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED DOWN A FEW DEGREES PRETTY
MUCH ACROSS THE BOARD.

THE LOWER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH STEADY DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S MEANS ANOTHER MORNING OF PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE. IN
FACT...HAVE ALREADY SEEN A FEW CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE
LOCATIONS DROP VISIBILITY UNDER PATCHY FOG CONDITIONS. HAVE
INSERTED THE MENTION OF FOG IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...PRIMARILY
HOLDING TO THE RIVER VALLEYS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND FAIRLY QUICKLY TODAY AFTER SUNRISE AS
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. UPPER-LEVEL TROF
AXIS WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT COPIOUS DRY
AIR AND WEAKENING DYNAMICS WILL KEEP THE BULK OF SATURDAY DRY. TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AT THIS POINT...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL LATER SUNDAY
WHEN THE FRONT CROSSES. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE FRONT
STRETCHING AND BECOMING RATHER DIFFUSE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY PROGGED...MAINTAINED THE CHANCE
POPS THAT WERE INHERITED BY THE MID SHIFT.

TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WARM TEMPERATURES
AND SUPPRESS PRECIP NEXT WEEK. TWEAKED WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUICKLY FALLING TEMPERATURES AND STEADY DEWPOINTS WILL AGAIN
COMBINE FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG CONDITIONS...MAINLY IN
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE LOCATIONS. HAVE INCLUDED IFR FOG TEMPO
GROUPS FOR BVI/HLG/ZZV/FKL/DUJ WITH THIS UPDATE. THE ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT AT THIS POINT IS WHETHER THE HIGH CLOUDS CAN INCREASE
THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AND HOLD OFF THE RADIATIONAL COOLING.

OUTSIDE OF THE MORNING FOG CHANCES...THE AREA WILL REMAIN
RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXPECTING HIGH CLOUDS TO GIVE WAY TO DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO
5-10KTS WHILE VEERING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.
TAX

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290033
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
833 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES EAST. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH
PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AFTERNOON CUMULUS HAS BEEN ERADICATED AND LOW CLOUDS ARE FULLY
GONE FROM THE AREA...FINALLY! ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY
DID MANAGE TO MIX DOWN LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO SOUTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...ALLOWING FOR SUBSTANTIAL
DRYING THERE SUCH THAT CUMULUS REALLY HARDLY EVEN DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS...MOST AREAS HAVE ALREADY ELAPSED THE BULK
OF THE FULLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE EVENING AS HIGH CONVECTIVE BLOW
OFF CLOUDS FROM A DECAYING MCS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES HAVE
ENCROACHED UPON THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL RH PROJECTIONS SUGGEST
THESE CLOUDS SHOULD ENVELOPE THE NORTHWESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FACT
THAT THEY ARE LIKELY TRANSLUCENT DUE TO THEIR THIN CHARACTER ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE FORECAST WILL ONLY BE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

A VERY DRY LOWER TWO-THIRDS OF THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
THIS WILL MEAN EFFECTIVE COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER EVEN AS A
HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE. IT WILL ALSO MEAN YET ANOTHER UNUSUALLY
COMFORTABLY SLEEPING NIGHT. IT SURE SEEMS LIKE THEY HAVE BEEN
UTTERLY COMMON THE SECOND HALF OF THE SUMMER AS WE CONTINUE TO BE
MUCH DRIER THAN NORMAL. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF SATURDAY AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS WARMTH AND MOISTURE TO THE REGION. A
FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BUT LIFT DOESNT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. AT
THIS POINT...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL LATER SUNDAY WHEN
THE FRONT CROSSES. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE FRONT
STRETCHING AND BECOMING RATHER DIFFUSE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY PROGGED...MAINTAINED THE CHANCE
POPS THAT WERE INHERITED BY THE MID SHIFT.

TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WARM TEMPERATURES
AND SUPPRESS PRECIP NEXT WEEK. TWEAKED WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL HIGH
PRESSURE EXITS LATE SATURDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY IFR
TO MVFR NEAR DAWN VALLEY FOG.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290033
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
833 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES EAST. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH
PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AFTERNOON CUMULUS HAS BEEN ERADICATED AND LOW CLOUDS ARE FULLY
GONE FROM THE AREA...FINALLY! ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY
DID MANAGE TO MIX DOWN LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO SOUTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...ALLOWING FOR SUBSTANTIAL
DRYING THERE SUCH THAT CUMULUS REALLY HARDLY EVEN DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS...MOST AREAS HAVE ALREADY ELAPSED THE BULK
OF THE FULLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE EVENING AS HIGH CONVECTIVE BLOW
OFF CLOUDS FROM A DECAYING MCS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES HAVE
ENCROACHED UPON THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL RH PROJECTIONS SUGGEST
THESE CLOUDS SHOULD ENVELOPE THE NORTHWESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FACT
THAT THEY ARE LIKELY TRANSLUCENT DUE TO THEIR THIN CHARACTER ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE FORECAST WILL ONLY BE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

A VERY DRY LOWER TWO-THIRDS OF THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
THIS WILL MEAN EFFECTIVE COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER EVEN AS A
HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE. IT WILL ALSO MEAN YET ANOTHER UNUSUALLY
COMFORTABLY SLEEPING NIGHT. IT SURE SEEMS LIKE THEY HAVE BEEN
UTTERLY COMMON THE SECOND HALF OF THE SUMMER AS WE CONTINUE TO BE
MUCH DRIER THAN NORMAL. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF SATURDAY AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS WARMTH AND MOISTURE TO THE REGION. A
FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BUT LIFT DOESNT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. AT
THIS POINT...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL LATER SUNDAY WHEN
THE FRONT CROSSES. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE FRONT
STRETCHING AND BECOMING RATHER DIFFUSE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY PROGGED...MAINTAINED THE CHANCE
POPS THAT WERE INHERITED BY THE MID SHIFT.

TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WARM TEMPERATURES
AND SUPPRESS PRECIP NEXT WEEK. TWEAKED WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL HIGH
PRESSURE EXITS LATE SATURDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY IFR
TO MVFR NEAR DAWN VALLEY FOG.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290033
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
833 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES EAST. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH
PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AFTERNOON CUMULUS HAS BEEN ERADICATED AND LOW CLOUDS ARE FULLY
GONE FROM THE AREA...FINALLY! ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY
DID MANAGE TO MIX DOWN LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO SOUTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...ALLOWING FOR SUBSTANTIAL
DRYING THERE SUCH THAT CUMULUS REALLY HARDLY EVEN DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS...MOST AREAS HAVE ALREADY ELAPSED THE BULK
OF THE FULLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE EVENING AS HIGH CONVECTIVE BLOW
OFF CLOUDS FROM A DECAYING MCS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES HAVE
ENCROACHED UPON THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL RH PROJECTIONS SUGGEST
THESE CLOUDS SHOULD ENVELOPE THE NORTHWESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FACT
THAT THEY ARE LIKELY TRANSLUCENT DUE TO THEIR THIN CHARACTER ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE FORECAST WILL ONLY BE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

A VERY DRY LOWER TWO-THIRDS OF THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
THIS WILL MEAN EFFECTIVE COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER EVEN AS A
HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE. IT WILL ALSO MEAN YET ANOTHER UNUSUALLY
COMFORTABLY SLEEPING NIGHT. IT SURE SEEMS LIKE THEY HAVE BEEN
UTTERLY COMMON THE SECOND HALF OF THE SUMMER AS WE CONTINUE TO BE
MUCH DRIER THAN NORMAL. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF SATURDAY AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS WARMTH AND MOISTURE TO THE REGION. A
FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BUT LIFT DOESNT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. AT
THIS POINT...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL LATER SUNDAY WHEN
THE FRONT CROSSES. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE FRONT
STRETCHING AND BECOMING RATHER DIFFUSE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY PROGGED...MAINTAINED THE CHANCE
POPS THAT WERE INHERITED BY THE MID SHIFT.

TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WARM TEMPERATURES
AND SUPPRESS PRECIP NEXT WEEK. TWEAKED WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL HIGH
PRESSURE EXITS LATE SATURDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY IFR
TO MVFR NEAR DAWN VALLEY FOG.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 282327
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
727 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES EAST. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH
PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AFTERNOON CUMULUS IS ALREADY DYING A SWIFT DEATH AS DIURNAL
INSTABILITY IS WANING. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY DID
MANAGE TO MIX DOWN LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...ALLOWING FOR SUBSTANTIAL DRYING THERE
SUCH THAT CUMULUS REALLY HARDLY EVEN DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON.
REGARDLESS...MOST AREAS WILL BE CLEAR FOR A FEW HOURS IN ADVANCE
OF HIGH CONVECTIVE BLOW OFF CLOUDS FROM A DECAYING MCS OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MODEL RH PROJECTIONS SUGGEST THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD ENVELOPE THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND INTO TOMORROW. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FACT THAT THEY ARE LIKELY
TRANSLUCENT DUE TO THEIR THIN CHARACTER ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE
FORECAST WILL ONLY BE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

A VERY DRY LOWER TWO-THIRDS OF THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
THIS WILL MEAN EFFECTIVE COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER EVEN AS A
HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE. IT WILL ALSO MEAN YET ANOTHER UNUSUALLY
COMFORTABLY SLEEPING NIGHT. IT SURE SEEMS LIKE THEY HAVE BEEN
UTTERLY COMMON THE SECOND HALF OF THE SUMMER AS WE CONTINUE TO BE
MUCH DRIER THAN NORMAL. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF SATURDAY AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS WARMTH AND MOISTURE TO THE REGION. A
FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BUT LIFT DOESNT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. AT
THIS POINT...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL LATER SUNDAY WHEN
THE FRONT CROSSES. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE FRONT
STRETCHING AND BECOMING RATHER DIFFUSE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY PROGGED...MAINTAINED THE CHANCE
POPS THAT WERE INHERITED BY THE MID SHIFT.

TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WARM TEMPERATURES
AND SUPPRESS PRECIP NEXT WEEK. TWEAKED WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL HIGH
PRESSURE EXITS LATE SATURDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY IFR
TO MVFR NEAR DAWN VALLEY FOG.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 282327
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
727 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES EAST. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH
PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AFTERNOON CUMULUS IS ALREADY DYING A SWIFT DEATH AS DIURNAL
INSTABILITY IS WANING. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY DID
MANAGE TO MIX DOWN LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...ALLOWING FOR SUBSTANTIAL DRYING THERE
SUCH THAT CUMULUS REALLY HARDLY EVEN DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON.
REGARDLESS...MOST AREAS WILL BE CLEAR FOR A FEW HOURS IN ADVANCE
OF HIGH CONVECTIVE BLOW OFF CLOUDS FROM A DECAYING MCS OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MODEL RH PROJECTIONS SUGGEST THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD ENVELOPE THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND INTO TOMORROW. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FACT THAT THEY ARE LIKELY
TRANSLUCENT DUE TO THEIR THIN CHARACTER ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE
FORECAST WILL ONLY BE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

A VERY DRY LOWER TWO-THIRDS OF THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
THIS WILL MEAN EFFECTIVE COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER EVEN AS A
HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE. IT WILL ALSO MEAN YET ANOTHER UNUSUALLY
COMFORTABLY SLEEPING NIGHT. IT SURE SEEMS LIKE THEY HAVE BEEN
UTTERLY COMMON THE SECOND HALF OF THE SUMMER AS WE CONTINUE TO BE
MUCH DRIER THAN NORMAL. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF SATURDAY AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS WARMTH AND MOISTURE TO THE REGION. A
FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BUT LIFT DOESNT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. AT
THIS POINT...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL LATER SUNDAY WHEN
THE FRONT CROSSES. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE FRONT
STRETCHING AND BECOMING RATHER DIFFUSE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY PROGGED...MAINTAINED THE CHANCE
POPS THAT WERE INHERITED BY THE MID SHIFT.

TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WARM TEMPERATURES
AND SUPPRESS PRECIP NEXT WEEK. TWEAKED WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL HIGH
PRESSURE EXITS LATE SATURDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY IFR
TO MVFR NEAR DAWN VALLEY FOG.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 282153
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
553 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES EAST. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH
PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AFTERNOON CUMULUS IS ALREADY DYING A SWIFT DEATH AS DIURNAL
INSTABILITY IS WANING. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY DID
MANAGE TO MIX DOWN LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...ALLOWING FOR SUBSTANTIAL DRYING THERE
SUCH THAT CUMULUS REALLY HARDLY EVEN DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON.
REGARDLESS...MOST AREAS WILL BE CLEAR FOR A FEW HOURS IN ADVANCE
OF HIGH CONVECTIVE BLOW OFF CLOUDS FROM A DECAYING MCS OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MODEL RH PROJECTIONS SUGGEST THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD ENVELOPE THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND INTO TOMORROW. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FACT THAT THEY ARE LIKELY
TRANSLUCENT DUE TO THEIR THIN CHARACTER ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE
FORECAST WILL ONLY BE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

A VERY DRY LOWER TWO-THIRDS OF THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
THIS WILL MEAN EFFECTIVE COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER EVEN AS A
HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE. IT WILL ALSO MEAN YET ANOTHER UNUSUALLY
COMFORTABLY SLEEPING NIGHT. IT SURE SEEMS LIKE THEY HAVE BEEN
UTTERLY COMMON THE SECOND HALF OF THE SUMMER AS WE CONTINUE TO BE
MUCH DRIER THAN NORMAL. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF SATURDAY AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS WARMTH AND MOISTURE TO THE REGION. A
FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BUT LIFT DOESNT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. AT
THIS POINT...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL LATER SUNDAY WHEN
THE FRONT CROSSES. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE FRONT
STRETCHING AND BECOMING RATHER DIFFUSE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY PROGGED...MAINTAINED THE CHANCE
POPS THAT WERE INHERITED BY THE MID SHIFT.

TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WARM TEMPERATURES
AND SUPPRESS PRECIP NEXT WEEK. TWEAKED WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR AND LIGHT WIND CAN BE EXPECTED UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR NEAR-DAWN FOG.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 282153
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
553 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES EAST. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH
PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AFTERNOON CUMULUS IS ALREADY DYING A SWIFT DEATH AS DIURNAL
INSTABILITY IS WANING. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY DID
MANAGE TO MIX DOWN LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...ALLOWING FOR SUBSTANTIAL DRYING THERE
SUCH THAT CUMULUS REALLY HARDLY EVEN DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON.
REGARDLESS...MOST AREAS WILL BE CLEAR FOR A FEW HOURS IN ADVANCE
OF HIGH CONVECTIVE BLOW OFF CLOUDS FROM A DECAYING MCS OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MODEL RH PROJECTIONS SUGGEST THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD ENVELOPE THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND INTO TOMORROW. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FACT THAT THEY ARE LIKELY
TRANSLUCENT DUE TO THEIR THIN CHARACTER ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE
FORECAST WILL ONLY BE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

A VERY DRY LOWER TWO-THIRDS OF THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
THIS WILL MEAN EFFECTIVE COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER EVEN AS A
HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE. IT WILL ALSO MEAN YET ANOTHER UNUSUALLY
COMFORTABLY SLEEPING NIGHT. IT SURE SEEMS LIKE THEY HAVE BEEN
UTTERLY COMMON THE SECOND HALF OF THE SUMMER AS WE CONTINUE TO BE
MUCH DRIER THAN NORMAL. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF SATURDAY AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS WARMTH AND MOISTURE TO THE REGION. A
FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BUT LIFT DOESNT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. AT
THIS POINT...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL LATER SUNDAY WHEN
THE FRONT CROSSES. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE FRONT
STRETCHING AND BECOMING RATHER DIFFUSE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY PROGGED...MAINTAINED THE CHANCE
POPS THAT WERE INHERITED BY THE MID SHIFT.

TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WARM TEMPERATURES
AND SUPPRESS PRECIP NEXT WEEK. TWEAKED WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR AND LIGHT WIND CAN BE EXPECTED UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR NEAR-DAWN FOG.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281654 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1254 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES EAST. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH
PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RATHER QUIET NEAR TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE. NEARLY
CALM AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT SHOULD GENERATE LOWS CLOSE TO LAST
NIGHTS VALUES...WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION ALOFT CONTRIBUTING TO A
ONE OR TWO DEGREE INCREASE IN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF SATURDAY AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS WARMTH AND MOISTURE TO THE REGION. A
FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BUT LIFT DOESNT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. AT
THIS POINT...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL LATER SUNDAY WHEN
THE FRONT CROSSES. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE FRONT
STRETCHING AND BECOMING RATHER DIFFUSE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY PROGGED...MAINTAINED THE CHANCE
POPS THAT WERE INHERITED BY THE MID SHIFT.

TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WARM TEMPERATURES
AND SUPPRESS PRECIP NEXT WEEK. TWEAKED WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR AND LIGHT WIND CAN BE EXPECTED UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR NEAR-DAWN FOG.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281654 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1254 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES EAST. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH
PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RATHER QUIET NEAR TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE. NEARLY
CALM AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT SHOULD GENERATE LOWS CLOSE TO LAST
NIGHTS VALUES...WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION ALOFT CONTRIBUTING TO A
ONE OR TWO DEGREE INCREASE IN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF SATURDAY AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS WARMTH AND MOISTURE TO THE REGION. A
FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BUT LIFT DOESNT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. AT
THIS POINT...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL LATER SUNDAY WHEN
THE FRONT CROSSES. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE FRONT
STRETCHING AND BECOMING RATHER DIFFUSE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY PROGGED...MAINTAINED THE CHANCE
POPS THAT WERE INHERITED BY THE MID SHIFT.

TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WARM TEMPERATURES
AND SUPPRESS PRECIP NEXT WEEK. TWEAKED WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR AND LIGHT WIND CAN BE EXPECTED UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR NEAR-DAWN FOG.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281351
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
951 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO NEAR THE SEASONABLE AVERAGES. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE
NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WHILE SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. WILL KEEP IN LATE DAY POPS IN THE WEST
TO ACCOUNT FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND GREATER INSTABILITY BECOMES PREVALENT.

THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES AND WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHWARD. WITH TIMING
OF BOTH...IT APPEARS BEST CHANCE WILL BE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WARM TEMPERATURES
AND SUPPRESS PRECIP NEXT WEEK. TWEAKED WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR AND LIGHT WIND CAN BE EXPECTED UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR NEAR-DAWN FOG.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281108
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
708 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO NEAR THE SEASONABLE AVERAGES. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE
NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WHILE SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. WILL KEEP IN LATE DAY POPS IN THE WEST
TO ACCOUNT FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND GREATER INSTABILITY BECOMES PREVALENT.

THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES AND WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHWARD. WITH TIMING
OF BOTH...IT APPEARS BEST CHANCE WILL BE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS
PRECIP AND WARM TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOG/LOCAL IFR WILL BURN OFF BY MIDMORNING...WITH VFR AND LIGHT
WIND THEREAFTER UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281108
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
708 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO NEAR THE SEASONABLE AVERAGES. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE
NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WHILE SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. WILL KEEP IN LATE DAY POPS IN THE WEST
TO ACCOUNT FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND GREATER INSTABILITY BECOMES PREVALENT.

THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES AND WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHWARD. WITH TIMING
OF BOTH...IT APPEARS BEST CHANCE WILL BE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS
PRECIP AND WARM TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOG/LOCAL IFR WILL BURN OFF BY MIDMORNING...WITH VFR AND LIGHT
WIND THEREAFTER UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281108
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
708 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO NEAR THE SEASONABLE AVERAGES. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE
NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WHILE SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. WILL KEEP IN LATE DAY POPS IN THE WEST
TO ACCOUNT FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND GREATER INSTABILITY BECOMES PREVALENT.

THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES AND WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHWARD. WITH TIMING
OF BOTH...IT APPEARS BEST CHANCE WILL BE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS
PRECIP AND WARM TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOG/LOCAL IFR WILL BURN OFF BY MIDMORNING...WITH VFR AND LIGHT
WIND THEREAFTER UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281108
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
708 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO NEAR THE SEASONABLE AVERAGES. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE
NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WHILE SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. WILL KEEP IN LATE DAY POPS IN THE WEST
TO ACCOUNT FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND GREATER INSTABILITY BECOMES PREVALENT.

THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES AND WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHWARD. WITH TIMING
OF BOTH...IT APPEARS BEST CHANCE WILL BE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS
PRECIP AND WARM TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOG/LOCAL IFR WILL BURN OFF BY MIDMORNING...WITH VFR AND LIGHT
WIND THEREAFTER UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15





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