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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300154
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
954 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET WITH
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS
INSTABILITY LESSENS. AFTER A WARM DAY...CLOUD COVERAGE OVERNIGHT
SHOULD KEEP LOWS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED. A COLD
FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING BETTER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND SREF FOR POSITIONING OF THE
FRONT AND PRECIP TIMING. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE PROGGED TO
REMAIN RELATIVELY LIMITED WITH WARM AIR ALOFT...PRECLUDING A
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG THE PA/WV BORDER LATER SUNDAY...WITH A SURFACE WAVE PROGGED
TO TRACK ALONG IT SUNDAY EVENING. THE WAVE SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY ALLOWING FOR DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD START OUT WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH A DECREASE
TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGE NUMBERS BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY USING THE
LATEST GRIDDED MOS AND SREF DATA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE SLOWED THE ENDING OF SHOWERS A BIT INTO TUESDAY FOR THE
SOUTHEAST RIDGES AS MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH TRYING TO DEVELOP
AND SHIFT EAST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG COLD FRONT JUST
SOUTH OF REGION. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE FROM WPC PROGS AS DRY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID
WEEK. BY LATE WEEK HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AND SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF
THE EAST COAST...ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. NO WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL AFTER FROPA SUNDAY EVENING.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BECOMING MORE LIKELY SUNDAY EVENING.
&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300154
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
954 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET WITH
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS
INSTABILITY LESSENS. AFTER A WARM DAY...CLOUD COVERAGE OVERNIGHT
SHOULD KEEP LOWS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED. A COLD
FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING BETTER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND SREF FOR POSITIONING OF THE
FRONT AND PRECIP TIMING. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE PROGGED TO
REMAIN RELATIVELY LIMITED WITH WARM AIR ALOFT...PRECLUDING A
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG THE PA/WV BORDER LATER SUNDAY...WITH A SURFACE WAVE PROGGED
TO TRACK ALONG IT SUNDAY EVENING. THE WAVE SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY ALLOWING FOR DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD START OUT WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH A DECREASE
TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGE NUMBERS BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY USING THE
LATEST GRIDDED MOS AND SREF DATA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE SLOWED THE ENDING OF SHOWERS A BIT INTO TUESDAY FOR THE
SOUTHEAST RIDGES AS MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH TRYING TO DEVELOP
AND SHIFT EAST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG COLD FRONT JUST
SOUTH OF REGION. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE FROM WPC PROGS AS DRY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID
WEEK. BY LATE WEEK HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AND SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF
THE EAST COAST...ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. NO WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL AFTER FROPA SUNDAY EVENING.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BECOMING MORE LIKELY SUNDAY EVENING.
&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291841
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
241 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ADVANCING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED WITH WARM AIR
ALOFT...INHIBITING THE CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE EXITS AND
INSTABILITY DIMINISHES. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE USING THE LATEST SREF NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED. A COLD
FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING BETTER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND SREF FOR POSITIONING OF THE
FRONT AND PRECIP TIMING. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE PROGGED TO
REMAIN RELATIVELY LIMITED WITH WARM AIR ALOFT...PRECLUDING A
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG THE PA/WV BORDER LATER SUNDAY...WITH A SURFACE WAVE PROGGED
TO TRACK ALONG IT SUNDAY EVENING. THE WAVE SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY ALLOWING FOR DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD START OUT WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH A DECREASE
TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGE NUMBERS BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY USING THE
LATEST GRIDDED MOS AND SREF DATA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE SLOWED THE ENDING OF SHOWERS A BIT INTO TUESDAY FOR THE
SOUTHEAST RIDGES AS MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH TRYING TO DEVELOP
AND SHIFT EAST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG COLD FRONT JUST
SOUTH OF REGION. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE FROM WPC PROGS AS DRY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID
WEEK. BY LATE WEEK HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AND SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF
THE EAST COAST...ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERAL VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE KEPT A PERIOD OF VCTS AS
PROBABILITY OF STORM AT ANY PARTICULAR PORT IS SMALL. NEXT CHANCE
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LOOKS TO BE BEYOND 18Z SATURDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291841
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
241 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ADVANCING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED WITH WARM AIR
ALOFT...INHIBITING THE CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE EXITS AND
INSTABILITY DIMINISHES. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE USING THE LATEST SREF NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED. A COLD
FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING BETTER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND SREF FOR POSITIONING OF THE
FRONT AND PRECIP TIMING. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE PROGGED TO
REMAIN RELATIVELY LIMITED WITH WARM AIR ALOFT...PRECLUDING A
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG THE PA/WV BORDER LATER SUNDAY...WITH A SURFACE WAVE PROGGED
TO TRACK ALONG IT SUNDAY EVENING. THE WAVE SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY ALLOWING FOR DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD START OUT WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH A DECREASE
TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGE NUMBERS BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY USING THE
LATEST GRIDDED MOS AND SREF DATA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE SLOWED THE ENDING OF SHOWERS A BIT INTO TUESDAY FOR THE
SOUTHEAST RIDGES AS MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH TRYING TO DEVELOP
AND SHIFT EAST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG COLD FRONT JUST
SOUTH OF REGION. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE FROM WPC PROGS AS DRY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID
WEEK. BY LATE WEEK HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AND SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF
THE EAST COAST...ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERAL VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE KEPT A PERIOD OF VCTS AS
PROBABILITY OF STORM AT ANY PARTICULAR PORT IS SMALL. NEXT CHANCE
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LOOKS TO BE BEYOND 18Z SATURDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291724
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
124 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP WITH THIS FEATURE...THOUGH PROGGED INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED WITH WARM AIR ALOFT. SLOWED ONSET OF PRECIP WITH THE LATE
MORNING UPDATE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE
WAVE EXITS. MORNING SOUNDINGS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT REMAINING AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT
STILL WELL TO OUR WEST AND A BROAD ATLANTIC HIGH TO THE EAST. STRONG
SURFACE HEATING WILL BOLSTER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COMBINING WITH
THE MOIST AIRMASS WILL GENERATE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STRONGER MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WELL TO
OUR NORTH...CLOSER TO THE DEEPER WAVE. STILL...ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR EXISTS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
LATE EVENING HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY NEARS OUR NORTHWEST AND UPSTREAM
THUNDERSTORMS CAN PROGRESS EASTWARD.

DEEP UPPER-LOW ADVANCES TO NEAR JAMES BAY CANADA LATE SATURDAY WITH
AN ELONGATED DEEP MOISTURE FIELD EXTENDING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
DELTA THROUGH EASTERN QUEBEC. BIGGEST QUESTION REMAINS HOW FAR EAST
THAT DEEP MOISTURE PROGRESSES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. 00Z GFS IS
FAST AS IT HAS MODERATE PERPENDICULAR MID-LEVEL FLOW DRIVING THE
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE THROUGH PGH BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THE
00Z NAM AND ECMWF DAMPEN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW AND STALL THE BOUNDARY
OVERHEAD...KEEPING AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE AREA. THINKING THE LATTER
SOLUTION IS MORE PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THAT THE DRIVER TO THE FRONTS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION EXITS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. SUNDAYS TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
DEPENDENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK AND CLOSER TO THE AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE SLOWED THE ENDING OF SHOWERS A BIT INTO TUESDAY FOR THE
SOUTHEAST RIDGES AS MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH TRYING TO DEVELOP
AND SHIFT EAST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG COLD FRONT JUST
SOUTH OF REGION. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE FROM WPC PROGS AS DRY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID
WEEK. BY LATE WEEK HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AND SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF
THE EAST COAST...ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERAL VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE KEPT A PERIOD OF VCTS AS
PROBABILITY OF STORM AT ANY PARTICULAR PORT IS SMALL. NEXT CHANCE
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LOOKS TO BE BEYOND 18Z SATURDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291724
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
124 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP WITH THIS FEATURE...THOUGH PROGGED INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED WITH WARM AIR ALOFT. SLOWED ONSET OF PRECIP WITH THE LATE
MORNING UPDATE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE
WAVE EXITS. MORNING SOUNDINGS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT REMAINING AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT
STILL WELL TO OUR WEST AND A BROAD ATLANTIC HIGH TO THE EAST. STRONG
SURFACE HEATING WILL BOLSTER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COMBINING WITH
THE MOIST AIRMASS WILL GENERATE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STRONGER MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WELL TO
OUR NORTH...CLOSER TO THE DEEPER WAVE. STILL...ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR EXISTS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
LATE EVENING HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY NEARS OUR NORTHWEST AND UPSTREAM
THUNDERSTORMS CAN PROGRESS EASTWARD.

DEEP UPPER-LOW ADVANCES TO NEAR JAMES BAY CANADA LATE SATURDAY WITH
AN ELONGATED DEEP MOISTURE FIELD EXTENDING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
DELTA THROUGH EASTERN QUEBEC. BIGGEST QUESTION REMAINS HOW FAR EAST
THAT DEEP MOISTURE PROGRESSES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. 00Z GFS IS
FAST AS IT HAS MODERATE PERPENDICULAR MID-LEVEL FLOW DRIVING THE
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE THROUGH PGH BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THE
00Z NAM AND ECMWF DAMPEN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW AND STALL THE BOUNDARY
OVERHEAD...KEEPING AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE AREA. THINKING THE LATTER
SOLUTION IS MORE PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THAT THE DRIVER TO THE FRONTS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION EXITS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. SUNDAYS TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
DEPENDENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK AND CLOSER TO THE AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE SLOWED THE ENDING OF SHOWERS A BIT INTO TUESDAY FOR THE
SOUTHEAST RIDGES AS MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH TRYING TO DEVELOP
AND SHIFT EAST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG COLD FRONT JUST
SOUTH OF REGION. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE FROM WPC PROGS AS DRY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID
WEEK. BY LATE WEEK HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AND SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF
THE EAST COAST...ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERAL VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE KEPT A PERIOD OF VCTS AS
PROBABILITY OF STORM AT ANY PARTICULAR PORT IS SMALL. NEXT CHANCE
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LOOKS TO BE BEYOND 18Z SATURDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291520
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1120 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP WITH THIS FEATURE...THOUGH PROGGED INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED WITH WARM AIR ALOFT. SLOWED ONSET OF PRECIP WITH THE LATE
MORNING UPDATE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE
WAVE EXITS. MORNING SOUNDINGS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT REMAINING AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT
STILL WELL TO OUR WEST AND A BROAD ATLANTIC HIGH TO THE EAST. STRONG
SURFACE HEATING WILL BOLSTER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COMBINING WITH
THE MOIST AIRMASS WILL GENERATE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STRONGER MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WELL TO
OUR NORTH...CLOSER TO THE DEEPER WAVE. STILL...ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR EXISTS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
LATE EVENING HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY NEARS OUR NORTHWEST AND UPSTREAM
THUNDERSTORMS CAN PROGRESS EASTWARD.

DEEP UPPER-LOW ADVANCES TO NEAR JAMES BAY CANADA LATE SATURDAY WITH
AN ELONGATED DEEP MOISTURE FIELD EXTENDING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
DELTA THROUGH EASTERN QUEBEC. BIGGEST QUESTION REMAINS HOW FAR EAST
THAT DEEP MOISTURE PROGRESSES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. 00Z GFS IS
FAST AS IT HAS MODERATE PERPENDICULAR MID-LEVEL FLOW DRIVING THE
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE THROUGH PGH BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THE
00Z NAM AND ECMWF DAMPEN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW AND STALL THE BOUNDARY
OVERHEAD...KEEPING AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE AREA. THINKING THE LATTER
SOLUTION IS MORE PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THAT THE DRIVER TO THE FRONTS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION EXITS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. SUNDAYS TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
DEPENDENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK AND CLOSER TO THE AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT WILL
EFFECTIVELY SWEEP THE DEEPER MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA. MODEL
GUIDANCE A LOT MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN 24HRS AGO WITH RE-BUILDING THE
SURFACE HIGH OVER PENNSYLVANIA MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS LEADS TO A
DRYING TREND WITH DECREASED CLOUDINESS. THE NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES THAT START THE WEEK WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
IS RE-ESTABLISHED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL EXPECT THE BULK OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO FEATURE VFR
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WITH MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING. SCT-BKN CU
DECK BELOW SOME HIGHER CLOUDS AT FIRST...THEN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
WILL DEVELOP BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY AS A MIDLEVEL WAVE ARRIVES.
STILL HANDLING THIS WITH VCTS AS ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE BRIEF
AND HARD TO TIME. ACTIVITY WILL WANE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST
THIS EVENING...AND EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY QUIET NIGHT WITH
LINGERING MID CLOUDS. SOME SHRA MAY SNEAK CLOSE TO ZZV JUST PRIOR
TO 12Z SATURDAY AS A FRONT TRIES TO PUSH CLOSER FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT...AND COULD CONTINUE ESPECIALLY S OF PIT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291520
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1120 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP WITH THIS FEATURE...THOUGH PROGGED INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED WITH WARM AIR ALOFT. SLOWED ONSET OF PRECIP WITH THE LATE
MORNING UPDATE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE
WAVE EXITS. MORNING SOUNDINGS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT REMAINING AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT
STILL WELL TO OUR WEST AND A BROAD ATLANTIC HIGH TO THE EAST. STRONG
SURFACE HEATING WILL BOLSTER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COMBINING WITH
THE MOIST AIRMASS WILL GENERATE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STRONGER MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WELL TO
OUR NORTH...CLOSER TO THE DEEPER WAVE. STILL...ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR EXISTS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
LATE EVENING HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY NEARS OUR NORTHWEST AND UPSTREAM
THUNDERSTORMS CAN PROGRESS EASTWARD.

DEEP UPPER-LOW ADVANCES TO NEAR JAMES BAY CANADA LATE SATURDAY WITH
AN ELONGATED DEEP MOISTURE FIELD EXTENDING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
DELTA THROUGH EASTERN QUEBEC. BIGGEST QUESTION REMAINS HOW FAR EAST
THAT DEEP MOISTURE PROGRESSES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. 00Z GFS IS
FAST AS IT HAS MODERATE PERPENDICULAR MID-LEVEL FLOW DRIVING THE
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE THROUGH PGH BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THE
00Z NAM AND ECMWF DAMPEN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW AND STALL THE BOUNDARY
OVERHEAD...KEEPING AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE AREA. THINKING THE LATTER
SOLUTION IS MORE PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THAT THE DRIVER TO THE FRONTS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION EXITS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. SUNDAYS TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
DEPENDENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK AND CLOSER TO THE AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT WILL
EFFECTIVELY SWEEP THE DEEPER MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA. MODEL
GUIDANCE A LOT MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN 24HRS AGO WITH RE-BUILDING THE
SURFACE HIGH OVER PENNSYLVANIA MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS LEADS TO A
DRYING TREND WITH DECREASED CLOUDINESS. THE NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES THAT START THE WEEK WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
IS RE-ESTABLISHED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL EXPECT THE BULK OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO FEATURE VFR
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WITH MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING. SCT-BKN CU
DECK BELOW SOME HIGHER CLOUDS AT FIRST...THEN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
WILL DEVELOP BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY AS A MIDLEVEL WAVE ARRIVES.
STILL HANDLING THIS WITH VCTS AS ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE BRIEF
AND HARD TO TIME. ACTIVITY WILL WANE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST
THIS EVENING...AND EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY QUIET NIGHT WITH
LINGERING MID CLOUDS. SOME SHRA MAY SNEAK CLOSE TO ZZV JUST PRIOR
TO 12Z SATURDAY AS A FRONT TRIES TO PUSH CLOSER FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT...AND COULD CONTINUE ESPECIALLY S OF PIT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291321
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
921 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP WITH THIS FEATURE...THOUGH PROGGED INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED WITH WARM AIR ALOFT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE THIS
EVENING AS THE WAVE EXITS. MORNING SOUNDINGS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT REMAINING AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT
STILL WELL TO OUR WEST AND A BROAD ATLANTIC HIGH TO THE EAST. STRONG
SURFACE HEATING WILL BOLSTER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COMBINING WITH
THE MOIST AIRMASS WILL GENERATE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STRONGER MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WELL TO
OUR NORTH...CLOSER TO THE DEEPER WAVE. STILL...ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR EXISTS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
LATE EVENING HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY NEARS OUR NORTHWEST AND UPSTREAM
THUNDERSTORMS CAN PROGRESS EASTWARD.

DEEP UPPER-LOW ADVANCES TO NEAR JAMES BAY CANADA LATE SATURDAY WITH
AN ELONGATED DEEP MOISTURE FIELD EXTENDING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
DELTA THROUGH EASTERN QUEBEC. BIGGEST QUESTION REMAINS HOW FAR EAST
THAT DEEP MOISTURE PROGRESSES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. 00Z GFS IS
FAST AS IT HAS MODERATE PERPENDICULAR MID-LEVEL FLOW DRIVING THE
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE THROUGH PGH BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THE
00Z NAM AND ECMWF DAMPEN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW AND STALL THE BOUNDARY
OVERHEAD...KEEPING AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE AREA. THINKING THE LATTER
SOLUTION IS MORE PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THAT THE DRIVER TO THE FRONTS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION EXITS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. SUNDAYS TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
DEPENDENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK AND CLOSER TO THE AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT WILL
EFFECTIVELY SWEEP THE DEEPER MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA. MODEL
GUIDANCE A LOT MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN 24HRS AGO WITH RE-BUILDING THE
SURFACE HIGH OVER PENNSYLVANIA MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS LEADS TO A
DRYING TREND WITH DECREASED CLOUDINESS. THE NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES THAT START THE WEEK WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
IS RE-ESTABLISHED.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL EXPECT THE BULK OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO FEATURE VFR
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WITH MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING. SCT-BKN CU
DECK BELOW SOME HIGHER CLOUDS AT FIRST...THEN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
WILL DEVELOP BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY AS A MIDLEVEL WAVE ARRIVES.
STILL HANDLING THIS WITH VCTS AS ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE BRIEF
AND HARD TO TIME. ACTIVITY WILL WANE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST
THIS EVENING...AND EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY QUIET NIGHT WITH
LINGERING MID CLOUDS. SOME SHRA MAY SNEAK CLOSE TO ZZV JUST PRIOR
TO 12Z SATURDAY AS A FRONT TRIES TO PUSH CLOSER FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT...AND COULD CONTINUE ESPECIALLY S OF PIT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291036
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
636 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TODAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM...UPDATED FOR SKY/TEMPERATURE TRENDS. CAN SEE PLUME OF
MOISTURE STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY NORTH ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY ON
WV LOOP. THINK WESTERN COUNTIES AND/OR SOUTHEAST RIDGES WILL SEE
FIRST SHRA IN OUR CWA...WITH OTHER AREAS FILLING IN EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE AT PRESENT...BUT THIS WILL START CHANGING
SHORTLY. WITH H500 RIDGE AXIS PULLING EAST AND SURFACE HIGH
TRACKING INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK...RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 60S BY MIDDAY. THIS HAPPENS IN OHIO
FIRST...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE INTRODUCED BY LATE MORNING AS
THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS QUICKLY MOISTEN UP ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. A
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE RIDING UP THE BACK OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE WILL
HELP TO PROVIDE A TRIGGER DESPITE WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT KEEPING
CAPE PROFILES FROM BECOMING VERY DEEP. THUS...SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AREAWIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ALONG WITH THE RELATIVELY MODEST CAPE...SHEAR IS UNIMPRESSIVE...SO
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT A THREAT. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY
WITH PWAT BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES...BUT WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10K FEET DURING THE DAY WHICH WILL PUT A LID
ON RAIN POTENTIAL.

WAVE DEPARTS BY EVENING...AND EXPECT THAT STORM COVERAGE WILL DROP
OFF BY 06Z AS INSTABILITY AND TRIGGER IS LOST. NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE MAKING A PUSH FROM THE GREAT LAKES BY 12Z
THOUGH...AND ELECTED TO BRING CHANCE POPS BACK INTO THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES BY THAT TIME.

TEMPERATURES NUDGED UP SLIGHTLY TOWARDS MODEL CONSENSUS FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS. LITTLE CHANGE TO VALUES FOR TONIGHT.  CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT
STILL WELL TO OUR WEST AND A BROAD ATLANTIC HIGH TO THE EAST. STRONG
SURFACE HEATING WILL BOLSTER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COMBINING WITH
THE MOIST AIRMASS WILL GENERATE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STRONGER MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WELL TO
OUR NORTH...CLOSER TO THE DEEPER WAVE. STILL...ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR EXISTS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
LATE EVENING HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY NEARS OUR NORTHWEST AND UPSTREAM
THUNDERSTORMS CAN PROGRESS EASTWARD.

DEEP UPPER-LOW ADVANCES TO NEAR JAMES BAY CANADA LATE SATURDAY WITH
AN ELONGATED DEEP MOISTURE FIELD EXTENDING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
DELTA THROUGH EASTERN QUEBEC. BIGGEST QUESTION REMAINS HOW FAR EAST
THAT DEEP MOISTURE PROGRESSES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. 00Z GFS IS
FAST AS IT HAS MODERATE PERPENDICULAR MID-LEVEL FLOW DRIVING THE
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE THROUGH PGH BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THE
00Z NAM AND ECMWF DAMPEN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW AND STALL THE BOUNDARY
OVERHEAD...KEEPING AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE AREA. THINKING THE LATTER
SOLUTION IS MORE PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THAT THE DRIVER TO THE FRONTS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION EXITS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. SUNDAYS TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
DEPENDENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK AND CLOSER TO THE AVERAGE.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT WILL
EFFECTIVELY SWEEP THE DEEPER MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA. MODEL
GUIDANCE A LOT MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN 24HRS AGO WITH RE-BUILDING THE
SURFACE HIGH OVER PENNSYLVANIA MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS LEADS TO A
DRYING TREND WITH DECREASED CLOUDINESS. THE NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES THAT START THE WEEK WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
IS RE-ESTABLISHED.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL EXPECT THE BULK OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO FEATURE VFR
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WITH MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING. SCT-BKN CU
DECK BELOW SOME HIGHER CLOUDS AT FIRST...THEN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
WILL DEVELOP BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY AS A MIDLEVEL WAVE ARRIVES.
STILL HANDLING THIS WITH VCTS AS ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE BRIEF
AND HARD TO TIME...BUT AMENDMENTS WILL BE NEEDED ONCE
PRECIPITATION STARTS TO DEVELOP. ACTIVITY WILL WANE AS DAYTIME
HEATING IS LOST THIS EVENING...AND EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY QUIET
NIGHT WITH LINGERING MID CLOUDS. SOME SHRA MAY SNEAK CLOSE TO ZZV
JUST PRIOR TO 12Z SATURDAY AS A FRONT TRIES TO PUSH CLOSER FROM
THE NORTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT...AND COULD CONTINUE ESPECIALLY S OF PIT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291036
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
636 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TODAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM...UPDATED FOR SKY/TEMPERATURE TRENDS. CAN SEE PLUME OF
MOISTURE STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY NORTH ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY ON
WV LOOP. THINK WESTERN COUNTIES AND/OR SOUTHEAST RIDGES WILL SEE
FIRST SHRA IN OUR CWA...WITH OTHER AREAS FILLING IN EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE AT PRESENT...BUT THIS WILL START CHANGING
SHORTLY. WITH H500 RIDGE AXIS PULLING EAST AND SURFACE HIGH
TRACKING INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK...RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 60S BY MIDDAY. THIS HAPPENS IN OHIO
FIRST...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE INTRODUCED BY LATE MORNING AS
THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS QUICKLY MOISTEN UP ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. A
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE RIDING UP THE BACK OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE WILL
HELP TO PROVIDE A TRIGGER DESPITE WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT KEEPING
CAPE PROFILES FROM BECOMING VERY DEEP. THUS...SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AREAWIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ALONG WITH THE RELATIVELY MODEST CAPE...SHEAR IS UNIMPRESSIVE...SO
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT A THREAT. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY
WITH PWAT BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES...BUT WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10K FEET DURING THE DAY WHICH WILL PUT A LID
ON RAIN POTENTIAL.

WAVE DEPARTS BY EVENING...AND EXPECT THAT STORM COVERAGE WILL DROP
OFF BY 06Z AS INSTABILITY AND TRIGGER IS LOST. NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE MAKING A PUSH FROM THE GREAT LAKES BY 12Z
THOUGH...AND ELECTED TO BRING CHANCE POPS BACK INTO THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES BY THAT TIME.

TEMPERATURES NUDGED UP SLIGHTLY TOWARDS MODEL CONSENSUS FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS. LITTLE CHANGE TO VALUES FOR TONIGHT.  CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT
STILL WELL TO OUR WEST AND A BROAD ATLANTIC HIGH TO THE EAST. STRONG
SURFACE HEATING WILL BOLSTER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COMBINING WITH
THE MOIST AIRMASS WILL GENERATE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STRONGER MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WELL TO
OUR NORTH...CLOSER TO THE DEEPER WAVE. STILL...ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR EXISTS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
LATE EVENING HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY NEARS OUR NORTHWEST AND UPSTREAM
THUNDERSTORMS CAN PROGRESS EASTWARD.

DEEP UPPER-LOW ADVANCES TO NEAR JAMES BAY CANADA LATE SATURDAY WITH
AN ELONGATED DEEP MOISTURE FIELD EXTENDING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
DELTA THROUGH EASTERN QUEBEC. BIGGEST QUESTION REMAINS HOW FAR EAST
THAT DEEP MOISTURE PROGRESSES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. 00Z GFS IS
FAST AS IT HAS MODERATE PERPENDICULAR MID-LEVEL FLOW DRIVING THE
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE THROUGH PGH BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THE
00Z NAM AND ECMWF DAMPEN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW AND STALL THE BOUNDARY
OVERHEAD...KEEPING AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE AREA. THINKING THE LATTER
SOLUTION IS MORE PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THAT THE DRIVER TO THE FRONTS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION EXITS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. SUNDAYS TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
DEPENDENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK AND CLOSER TO THE AVERAGE.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT WILL
EFFECTIVELY SWEEP THE DEEPER MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA. MODEL
GUIDANCE A LOT MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN 24HRS AGO WITH RE-BUILDING THE
SURFACE HIGH OVER PENNSYLVANIA MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS LEADS TO A
DRYING TREND WITH DECREASED CLOUDINESS. THE NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES THAT START THE WEEK WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
IS RE-ESTABLISHED.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL EXPECT THE BULK OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO FEATURE VFR
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WITH MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING. SCT-BKN CU
DECK BELOW SOME HIGHER CLOUDS AT FIRST...THEN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
WILL DEVELOP BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY AS A MIDLEVEL WAVE ARRIVES.
STILL HANDLING THIS WITH VCTS AS ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE BRIEF
AND HARD TO TIME...BUT AMENDMENTS WILL BE NEEDED ONCE
PRECIPITATION STARTS TO DEVELOP. ACTIVITY WILL WANE AS DAYTIME
HEATING IS LOST THIS EVENING...AND EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY QUIET
NIGHT WITH LINGERING MID CLOUDS. SOME SHRA MAY SNEAK CLOSE TO ZZV
JUST PRIOR TO 12Z SATURDAY AS A FRONT TRIES TO PUSH CLOSER FROM
THE NORTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT...AND COULD CONTINUE ESPECIALLY S OF PIT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290800
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
400 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TODAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AT PRESENT...BUT THIS WILL START CHANGING SHORTLY.
WITH H500 RIDGE AXIS PULLING EAST AND SURFACE HIGH TRACKING INTO
UPSTATE NEW YORK...RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH DEWPOINTS BACK
INTO THE 60S BY MIDDAY. THIS HAPPENS IN OHIO FIRST...WHERE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ARE INTRODUCED BY LATE MORNING AS THE LOWER AND MID
LEVELS QUICKLY MOISTEN UP ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE
RIDING UP THE BACK OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE WILL HELP TO PROVIDE A
TRIGGER DESPITE WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT KEEPING CAPE PROFILES FROM
BECOMING VERY DEEP.  THUS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP AREAWIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH THE
RELATIVELY MODEST CAPE...SHEAR IS UNIMPRESSIVE...SO SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT A THREAT. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY WITH PWAT
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES...BUT WARM CLOUD DEPTHS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 10K FEET DURING THE DAY WHICH WILL PUT A LID ON RAIN
POTENTIAL.

WAVE DEPARTS BY EVENING...AND EXPECT THAT STORM COVERAGE WILL DROP
OFF BY 06Z AS INSTABILITY AND TRIGGER IS LOST. NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE MAKING A PUSH FROM THE GREAT LAKES BY 12Z
THOUGH...AND ELECTED TO BRING CHANCE POPS BACK INTO THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES BY THAT TIME.

TEMPERATURES NUDGED UP SLIGHTLY TOWARDS MODEL CONSENSUS FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS. LITTLE CHANGE TO VALUES FOR TONIGHT.  CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT
STILL WELL TO OUR WEST AND A BROAD ATLANTIC HIGH TO THE EAST. STRONG
SURFACE HEATING WILL BOLSTER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COMBINING WITH
THE MOIST AIRMASS WILL GENERATE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STRONGER MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WELL TO
OUR NORTH...CLOSER TO THE DEEPER WAVE. STILL...ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR EXISTS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
LATE EVENING HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY NEARS OUR NORTHWEST AND UPSTREAM
THUNDERSTORMS CAN PROGRESS EASTWARD.

DEEP UPPER-LOW ADVANCES TO NEAR JAMES BAY CANADA LATE SATURDAY WITH
AN ELONGATED DEEP MOISTURE FIELD EXTENDING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
DELTA THROUGH EASTERN QUEBEC. BIGGEST QUESTION REMAINS HOW FAR EAST
THAT DEEP MOISTURE PROGRESSES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. 00Z GFS IS
FAST AS IT HAS MODERATE PERPENDICULAR MID-LEVEL FLOW DRIVING THE
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE THROUGH PGH BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THE
00Z NAM AND ECMWF DAMPEN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW AND STALL THE BOUNDARY
OVERHEAD...KEEPING AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE AREA. THINKING THE LATTER
SOLUTION IS MORE PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THAT THE DRIVER TO THE FRONTS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION EXITS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. SUNDAYS TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
DEPENDENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK AND CLOSER TO THE AVERAGE.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT WILL
EFFECTIVELY SWEEP THE DEEPER MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA. MODEL
GUIDANCE A LOT MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN 24HRS AGO WITH RE-BUILDING THE
SURFACE HIGH OVER PENNSYLVANIA MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS LEADS TO A
DRYING TREND WITH DECREASED CLOUDINESS. THE NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES THAT START THE WEEK WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
IS RE-ESTABLISHED.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS. FEW CLOUDS WILL BE
SEEN OVERNIGHT...AND THE AIRMASS IS TOO DRY FOR FOG. MOISTURE DOES
START CREEPING BACK NORTHWARD FRIDAY MORNING...WITH A SCT-BKN CU
DECK DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BUILD DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO FIRE OFF
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. VCTS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE USED AT ALL SITES...GIVEN THAT ANY
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE FAIRLY BRIEF OVERALL. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN
TO TAPER OFF TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT...AND COULD CONTINUE ESPECIALLY S OF PIT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290800
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
400 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TODAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AT PRESENT...BUT THIS WILL START CHANGING SHORTLY.
WITH H500 RIDGE AXIS PULLING EAST AND SURFACE HIGH TRACKING INTO
UPSTATE NEW YORK...RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH DEWPOINTS BACK
INTO THE 60S BY MIDDAY. THIS HAPPENS IN OHIO FIRST...WHERE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ARE INTRODUCED BY LATE MORNING AS THE LOWER AND MID
LEVELS QUICKLY MOISTEN UP ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE
RIDING UP THE BACK OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE WILL HELP TO PROVIDE A
TRIGGER DESPITE WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT KEEPING CAPE PROFILES FROM
BECOMING VERY DEEP.  THUS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP AREAWIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH THE
RELATIVELY MODEST CAPE...SHEAR IS UNIMPRESSIVE...SO SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT A THREAT. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY WITH PWAT
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES...BUT WARM CLOUD DEPTHS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 10K FEET DURING THE DAY WHICH WILL PUT A LID ON RAIN
POTENTIAL.

WAVE DEPARTS BY EVENING...AND EXPECT THAT STORM COVERAGE WILL DROP
OFF BY 06Z AS INSTABILITY AND TRIGGER IS LOST. NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE MAKING A PUSH FROM THE GREAT LAKES BY 12Z
THOUGH...AND ELECTED TO BRING CHANCE POPS BACK INTO THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES BY THAT TIME.

TEMPERATURES NUDGED UP SLIGHTLY TOWARDS MODEL CONSENSUS FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS. LITTLE CHANGE TO VALUES FOR TONIGHT.  CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT
STILL WELL TO OUR WEST AND A BROAD ATLANTIC HIGH TO THE EAST. STRONG
SURFACE HEATING WILL BOLSTER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COMBINING WITH
THE MOIST AIRMASS WILL GENERATE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STRONGER MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WELL TO
OUR NORTH...CLOSER TO THE DEEPER WAVE. STILL...ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR EXISTS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
LATE EVENING HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY NEARS OUR NORTHWEST AND UPSTREAM
THUNDERSTORMS CAN PROGRESS EASTWARD.

DEEP UPPER-LOW ADVANCES TO NEAR JAMES BAY CANADA LATE SATURDAY WITH
AN ELONGATED DEEP MOISTURE FIELD EXTENDING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
DELTA THROUGH EASTERN QUEBEC. BIGGEST QUESTION REMAINS HOW FAR EAST
THAT DEEP MOISTURE PROGRESSES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. 00Z GFS IS
FAST AS IT HAS MODERATE PERPENDICULAR MID-LEVEL FLOW DRIVING THE
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE THROUGH PGH BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THE
00Z NAM AND ECMWF DAMPEN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW AND STALL THE BOUNDARY
OVERHEAD...KEEPING AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE AREA. THINKING THE LATTER
SOLUTION IS MORE PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THAT THE DRIVER TO THE FRONTS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION EXITS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. SUNDAYS TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
DEPENDENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK AND CLOSER TO THE AVERAGE.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT WILL
EFFECTIVELY SWEEP THE DEEPER MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA. MODEL
GUIDANCE A LOT MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN 24HRS AGO WITH RE-BUILDING THE
SURFACE HIGH OVER PENNSYLVANIA MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS LEADS TO A
DRYING TREND WITH DECREASED CLOUDINESS. THE NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES THAT START THE WEEK WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
IS RE-ESTABLISHED.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS. FEW CLOUDS WILL BE
SEEN OVERNIGHT...AND THE AIRMASS IS TOO DRY FOR FOG. MOISTURE DOES
START CREEPING BACK NORTHWARD FRIDAY MORNING...WITH A SCT-BKN CU
DECK DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BUILD DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO FIRE OFF
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. VCTS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE USED AT ALL SITES...GIVEN THAT ANY
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE FAIRLY BRIEF OVERALL. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN
TO TAPER OFF TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT...AND COULD CONTINUE ESPECIALLY S OF PIT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290536
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
136 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR....WITH MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH TO LOWER 60S ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. ONLY CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS DOWN ACROSS
PRESTON TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN
THE UPPER 60S AND WE MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH DEVELOPMENT WILL BE QUITE LIMITED...SO OPTED TO
KEEP ANY MENTION OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW...BUT IT BEARS WATCHING.

FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS RIDGING OVERHEAD SHIFTS EAST
TOMORROW...RESULTING IN INCREASED DEEP MOISTURE AND CLOUD
COVERAGE. MODELS ARE IN SOMEWHAT GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A
SHORTWAVE PASSING OVERHEAD DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY PROVIDE
JUST ENOUGH TRIGGER TO OVERCOME WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT CAPPING
OFF CONVECTION...BUT BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH THE NAM MAY BE SOMEWHAT OVERDONE. OPTED TO HOLD
OFF ON ANY CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST UNTIL FULL 00Z MODEL
SUITE IS AVAILABLE FOR CONSIDERATION...BUT IN ANY CASE ITS GOING
TO BE A WARM AND HUMID AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONTINUED CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS HARD TO TIME IMPULSES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. INCREASING HUMIDITY AND WARM FRIDAY NIGHT AS
DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 60S.

COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN. MUCH
COOLER ON SUNDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE...AS IT APPEARS ANOTHER WAVE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ADJUSTED TOWARD
COOLER 12Z GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...ALONG WITH A SLOW
MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY...IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF PIT
CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. RIDGING IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD IN BY MID
WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES UNTIL
INCREASING ABOVE AVERAGE BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS. FEW CLOUDS WILL BE
SEEN OVERNIGHT...AND THE AIRMASS IS TOO DRY FOR FOG. MOISTURE DOES
START CREEPING BACK NORTHWARD FRIDAY MORNING...WITH A SCT-BKN CU
DECK DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BUILD DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO FIRE OFF
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. VCTS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE USED AT ALL SITES...GIVEN THAT ANY
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE FAIRLY BRIEF OVERALL. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN
TO TAPER OFF TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT...AND COULD CONTINUE ESPECIALLY S OF PIT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290536
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
136 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR....WITH MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH TO LOWER 60S ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. ONLY CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS DOWN ACROSS
PRESTON TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN
THE UPPER 60S AND WE MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH DEVELOPMENT WILL BE QUITE LIMITED...SO OPTED TO
KEEP ANY MENTION OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW...BUT IT BEARS WATCHING.

FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS RIDGING OVERHEAD SHIFTS EAST
TOMORROW...RESULTING IN INCREASED DEEP MOISTURE AND CLOUD
COVERAGE. MODELS ARE IN SOMEWHAT GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A
SHORTWAVE PASSING OVERHEAD DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY PROVIDE
JUST ENOUGH TRIGGER TO OVERCOME WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT CAPPING
OFF CONVECTION...BUT BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH THE NAM MAY BE SOMEWHAT OVERDONE. OPTED TO HOLD
OFF ON ANY CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST UNTIL FULL 00Z MODEL
SUITE IS AVAILABLE FOR CONSIDERATION...BUT IN ANY CASE ITS GOING
TO BE A WARM AND HUMID AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONTINUED CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS HARD TO TIME IMPULSES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. INCREASING HUMIDITY AND WARM FRIDAY NIGHT AS
DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 60S.

COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN. MUCH
COOLER ON SUNDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE...AS IT APPEARS ANOTHER WAVE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ADJUSTED TOWARD
COOLER 12Z GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...ALONG WITH A SLOW
MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY...IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF PIT
CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. RIDGING IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD IN BY MID
WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES UNTIL
INCREASING ABOVE AVERAGE BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS. FEW CLOUDS WILL BE
SEEN OVERNIGHT...AND THE AIRMASS IS TOO DRY FOR FOG. MOISTURE DOES
START CREEPING BACK NORTHWARD FRIDAY MORNING...WITH A SCT-BKN CU
DECK DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BUILD DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO FIRE OFF
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. VCTS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE USED AT ALL SITES...GIVEN THAT ANY
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE FAIRLY BRIEF OVERALL. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN
TO TAPER OFF TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT...AND COULD CONTINUE ESPECIALLY S OF PIT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290536
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
136 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR....WITH MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH TO LOWER 60S ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. ONLY CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS DOWN ACROSS
PRESTON TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN
THE UPPER 60S AND WE MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH DEVELOPMENT WILL BE QUITE LIMITED...SO OPTED TO
KEEP ANY MENTION OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW...BUT IT BEARS WATCHING.

FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS RIDGING OVERHEAD SHIFTS EAST
TOMORROW...RESULTING IN INCREASED DEEP MOISTURE AND CLOUD
COVERAGE. MODELS ARE IN SOMEWHAT GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A
SHORTWAVE PASSING OVERHEAD DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY PROVIDE
JUST ENOUGH TRIGGER TO OVERCOME WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT CAPPING
OFF CONVECTION...BUT BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH THE NAM MAY BE SOMEWHAT OVERDONE. OPTED TO HOLD
OFF ON ANY CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST UNTIL FULL 00Z MODEL
SUITE IS AVAILABLE FOR CONSIDERATION...BUT IN ANY CASE ITS GOING
TO BE A WARM AND HUMID AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONTINUED CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS HARD TO TIME IMPULSES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. INCREASING HUMIDITY AND WARM FRIDAY NIGHT AS
DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 60S.

COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN. MUCH
COOLER ON SUNDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE...AS IT APPEARS ANOTHER WAVE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ADJUSTED TOWARD
COOLER 12Z GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...ALONG WITH A SLOW
MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY...IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF PIT
CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. RIDGING IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD IN BY MID
WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES UNTIL
INCREASING ABOVE AVERAGE BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS. FEW CLOUDS WILL BE
SEEN OVERNIGHT...AND THE AIRMASS IS TOO DRY FOR FOG. MOISTURE DOES
START CREEPING BACK NORTHWARD FRIDAY MORNING...WITH A SCT-BKN CU
DECK DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BUILD DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO FIRE OFF
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. VCTS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE USED AT ALL SITES...GIVEN THAT ANY
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE FAIRLY BRIEF OVERALL. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN
TO TAPER OFF TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT...AND COULD CONTINUE ESPECIALLY S OF PIT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290536
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
136 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR....WITH MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH TO LOWER 60S ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. ONLY CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS DOWN ACROSS
PRESTON TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN
THE UPPER 60S AND WE MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH DEVELOPMENT WILL BE QUITE LIMITED...SO OPTED TO
KEEP ANY MENTION OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW...BUT IT BEARS WATCHING.

FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS RIDGING OVERHEAD SHIFTS EAST
TOMORROW...RESULTING IN INCREASED DEEP MOISTURE AND CLOUD
COVERAGE. MODELS ARE IN SOMEWHAT GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A
SHORTWAVE PASSING OVERHEAD DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY PROVIDE
JUST ENOUGH TRIGGER TO OVERCOME WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT CAPPING
OFF CONVECTION...BUT BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH THE NAM MAY BE SOMEWHAT OVERDONE. OPTED TO HOLD
OFF ON ANY CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST UNTIL FULL 00Z MODEL
SUITE IS AVAILABLE FOR CONSIDERATION...BUT IN ANY CASE ITS GOING
TO BE A WARM AND HUMID AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONTINUED CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS HARD TO TIME IMPULSES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. INCREASING HUMIDITY AND WARM FRIDAY NIGHT AS
DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 60S.

COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN. MUCH
COOLER ON SUNDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE...AS IT APPEARS ANOTHER WAVE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ADJUSTED TOWARD
COOLER 12Z GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...ALONG WITH A SLOW
MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY...IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF PIT
CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. RIDGING IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD IN BY MID
WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES UNTIL
INCREASING ABOVE AVERAGE BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS. FEW CLOUDS WILL BE
SEEN OVERNIGHT...AND THE AIRMASS IS TOO DRY FOR FOG. MOISTURE DOES
START CREEPING BACK NORTHWARD FRIDAY MORNING...WITH A SCT-BKN CU
DECK DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BUILD DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO FIRE OFF
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. VCTS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE USED AT ALL SITES...GIVEN THAT ANY
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE FAIRLY BRIEF OVERALL. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN
TO TAPER OFF TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT...AND COULD CONTINUE ESPECIALLY S OF PIT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290155
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
955 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR....WITH MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH TO LOWER 60S ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. ONLY CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS DOWN ACROSS
PRESTON TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN
THE UPPER 60S AND WE MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH DEVELOPMENT WILL BE QUITE LIMITED...SO OPTED TO
KEEP ANY MENTION OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW...BUT IT BEARS WATCHING.

FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS RIDGING OVERHEAD SHIFTS EAST
TOMORROW...RESULTING IN INCREASED DEEP MOISTURE AND CLOUD
COVERAGE. MODELS ARE IN SOMEWHAT GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A
SHORTWAVE PASSING OVERHEAD DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY PROVIDE
JUST ENOUGH TRIGGER TO OVERCOME WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT CAPPING
OFF CONVECTION...BUT BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH THE NAM MAY BE SOMEWHAT OVERDONE. OPTED TO HOLD
OFF ON ANY CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST UNTIL FULL 00Z MODEL
SUITE IS AVAILABLE FOR CONSIDERATION...BUT IN ANY CASE ITS GOING
TO BE A WARM AND HUMID AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONTINUED CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS HARD TO TIME IMPULSES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. INCREASING HUMIDITY AND WARM FRIDAY NIGHT AS
DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 60S.

COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN. MUCH
COOLER ON SUNDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE...AS IT APPEARS ANOTHER WAVE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ADJUSTED TOWARD
COOLER 12Z GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...ALONG WITH A SLOW
MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY...IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF PIT
CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. RIDGING IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD IN BY MID
WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES UNTIL
INCREASING ABOVE AVERAGE BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY UNDER RIDGING.
THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST LATER FRIDAY MORNING WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS BY
AFTERNOON...SO INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION FOR PIT IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE TAF.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT...AND COULD CONTINUE ESPECIALLY S OF PIT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290004 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
804 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECAST RIGHT ON TRACK...AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE OUTSIDE OF
SLIGHTLY ADJUSTING DEWPOINTS TO BETTER ALIGN WITH HOURLY TRENDS.
PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..


SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS MOVED SOUTH OF REGION
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN EVENING SHOWER ACROSS TUCKER
COUNTY. DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO DROP OFF AND EXPECT DRIER AIR TO
WORK SOUTH INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. UNDER SURFACE RIDGE AND
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FORM THE MID 50S FAR NORTH TO
LOWER 60S SOUTH.

RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOME AGREEMENT ON A SHORTWAVE
RIDING NORTHEAST IN THE FLOW FRIDAY...WITH INCREASING DEEP
MOISTURE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD FOR THE
ENTIRE REGION WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY BY AFTERNOON.
WITH EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUDS HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A DEGREE
OR TWO...BUT STILL A WARM AND HUMID AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONTINUED CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS HARD TO TIME IMPULSES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. INCREASING HUMIDITY AND WARM FRIDAY NIGHT AS
DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 60S.

COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN. MUCH
COOLER ON SUNDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE...AS IT APPEARS ANOTHER WAVE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ADJUSTED TOWARD
COOLER 12Z GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...ALONG WITH A SLOW
MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY...IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF PIT
CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. RIDGING IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD IN BY MID
WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES UNTIL
INCREASING ABOVE AVERAGE BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY UNDER RIDGING.
THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST LATER FRIDAY MORNING WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS BY
AFTERNOON...SO INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION FOR PIT IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE TAF.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT...AND COULD CONTINUE ESPECIALLY S OF PIT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290004 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
804 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECAST RIGHT ON TRACK...AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE OUTSIDE OF
SLIGHTLY ADJUSTING DEWPOINTS TO BETTER ALIGN WITH HOURLY TRENDS.
PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..


SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS MOVED SOUTH OF REGION
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN EVENING SHOWER ACROSS TUCKER
COUNTY. DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO DROP OFF AND EXPECT DRIER AIR TO
WORK SOUTH INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. UNDER SURFACE RIDGE AND
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FORM THE MID 50S FAR NORTH TO
LOWER 60S SOUTH.

RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOME AGREEMENT ON A SHORTWAVE
RIDING NORTHEAST IN THE FLOW FRIDAY...WITH INCREASING DEEP
MOISTURE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD FOR THE
ENTIRE REGION WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY BY AFTERNOON.
WITH EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUDS HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A DEGREE
OR TWO...BUT STILL A WARM AND HUMID AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONTINUED CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS HARD TO TIME IMPULSES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. INCREASING HUMIDITY AND WARM FRIDAY NIGHT AS
DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 60S.

COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN. MUCH
COOLER ON SUNDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE...AS IT APPEARS ANOTHER WAVE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ADJUSTED TOWARD
COOLER 12Z GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...ALONG WITH A SLOW
MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY...IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF PIT
CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. RIDGING IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD IN BY MID
WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES UNTIL
INCREASING ABOVE AVERAGE BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY UNDER RIDGING.
THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST LATER FRIDAY MORNING WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS BY
AFTERNOON...SO INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION FOR PIT IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE TAF.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT...AND COULD CONTINUE ESPECIALLY S OF PIT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 282152
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
552 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECAST RIGHT ON TRACK...AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE OUTSIDE OF
SLIGHTLY ADJUSTING DEWPOINTS TO BETTER ALIGN WITH HOURLY TRENDS.
PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..


SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS MOVED SOUTH OF REGION
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN EVENING SHOWER ACROSS TUCKER
COUNTY. DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO DROP OFF AND EXPECT DRIER AIR TO
WORK SOUTH INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. UNDER SURFACE RIDGE AND
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FORM THE MID 50S FAR NORTH TO
LOWER 60S SOUTH.

RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOME AGREEMENT ON A SHORTWAVE
RIDING NORTHEAST IN THE FLOW FRIDAY...WITH INCREASING DEEP
MOISTURE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD FOR THE
ENTIRE REGION WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY BY AFTERNOON.
WITH EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUDS HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A DEGREE
OR TWO...BUT STILL A WARM AND HUMID AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONTINUED CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS HARD TO TIME IMPULSES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. INCREASING HUMIDITY AND WARM FRIDAY NIGHT AS
DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 60S.

COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN. MUCH
COOLER ON SUNDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE...AS IT APPEARS ANOTHER WAVE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ADJUSTED TOWARD
COOLER 12Z GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...ALONG WITH A SLOW
MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY...IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF PIT
CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. RIDGING IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD IN BY MID
WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES UNTIL
INCREASING ABOVE AVERAGE BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH DIURNAL CU ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
UNDER RIDGING. THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST LATER FRIDAY
MORNING WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW SHOULD BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS BY AFTERNOON...SO INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION FOR PIT
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE TAF.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT...AND COULD CONTINUE ESPECIALLY S OF PIT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281856
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
256 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS MOVED SOUTH OF REGION WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR AN EVENING SHOWER ACROSS TUCKER COUNTY. DEW POINTS
CONTINUE TO DROP OFF AND EXPECT DRIER AIR TO WORK SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. UNDER SURFACE RIDGE AND LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FORM THE MID 50S FAR NORTH TO LOWER 60S
SOUTH.

RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOME AGREEMENT ON A SHORTWAVE
RIDING NORTHEAST IN THE FLOW FRIDAY...WITH INCREASING DEEP
MOISTURE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD FOR THE
ENTIRE REGION WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY BY AFTERNOON.
WITH EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUDS HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A DEGREE
OR TWO...BUT STILL A WARM AND HUMID AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONTINUED CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS HARD TO TIME IMPULSES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. INCREASING HUMIDITY AND WARM FRIDAY NIGHT AS
DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 60S.

COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN. MUCH
COOLER ON SUNDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE...AS IT APPEARS ANOTHER WAVE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ADJUSTED TOWARD
COOLER 12Z GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.


&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...ALONG WITH A SLOW
MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY...IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF PIT
CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. RIDGING IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD IN BY MID
WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES UNTIL
INCREASING ABOVE AVERAGE BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH DIURNAL CU ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
UNDER RIDGING. THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST LATER FRIDAY
MORNING WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW SHOULD BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS BY AFTERNOON...SO INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION FOR PIT
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE TAF.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT...AND COULD CONTINUE ESPECIALLY S OF PIT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281856
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
256 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS MOVED SOUTH OF REGION WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR AN EVENING SHOWER ACROSS TUCKER COUNTY. DEW POINTS
CONTINUE TO DROP OFF AND EXPECT DRIER AIR TO WORK SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. UNDER SURFACE RIDGE AND LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FORM THE MID 50S FAR NORTH TO LOWER 60S
SOUTH.

RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOME AGREEMENT ON A SHORTWAVE
RIDING NORTHEAST IN THE FLOW FRIDAY...WITH INCREASING DEEP
MOISTURE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD FOR THE
ENTIRE REGION WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY BY AFTERNOON.
WITH EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUDS HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A DEGREE
OR TWO...BUT STILL A WARM AND HUMID AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONTINUED CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS HARD TO TIME IMPULSES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. INCREASING HUMIDITY AND WARM FRIDAY NIGHT AS
DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 60S.

COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN. MUCH
COOLER ON SUNDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE...AS IT APPEARS ANOTHER WAVE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ADJUSTED TOWARD
COOLER 12Z GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.


&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...ALONG WITH A SLOW
MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY...IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF PIT
CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. RIDGING IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD IN BY MID
WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES UNTIL
INCREASING ABOVE AVERAGE BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH DIURNAL CU ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
UNDER RIDGING. THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST LATER FRIDAY
MORNING WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW SHOULD BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS BY AFTERNOON...SO INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION FOR PIT
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE TAF.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT...AND COULD CONTINUE ESPECIALLY S OF PIT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281725
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
125 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND WARM TODAY. DISTURBANCES WILL BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG THE RIDGES AND CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHEAST.
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES THIS
AFTERNOON. LOWER DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH BUT AS
FRONT WASHES OUT THIS EVENING LESS IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
WILL MAKE IT TO THE MASON DIXON LINE. MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON
UNCHANGED IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW
ENGLAND WITH A BASICALLY DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPS CLOSE TO
MODEL MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOME AGREEMENT ON RIPPLES OF
ENERGY RIDING NORTHEAST IN THE FLOW FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO GIVE MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION BY AFTERNOON.

CONTINUED ISOLATED POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS HARD TO TIME IMPULSES
MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. INCREASING HUMIDITY FRIDAY NIGHT AS DEW
POINTS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 60S.

COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN. MUCH
COOLER ON SUNDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...ALONG WITH A SLOW
MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY...IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF PIT
CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. RIDGING IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD IN BY MID
WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES UNTIL
INCREASING ABOVE AVERAGE BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH DIURNAL CU ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
UNDER RIDGING. THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST LATER FRIDAY
MORNING WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW SHOULD BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS BY AFTERNOON...SO INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION FOR PIT
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE TAF.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT...AND COULD CONTINUE ESPECIALLY S OF PIT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281725
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
125 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND WARM TODAY. DISTURBANCES WILL BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG THE RIDGES AND CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHEAST.
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES THIS
AFTERNOON. LOWER DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH BUT AS
FRONT WASHES OUT THIS EVENING LESS IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
WILL MAKE IT TO THE MASON DIXON LINE. MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON
UNCHANGED IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW
ENGLAND WITH A BASICALLY DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPS CLOSE TO
MODEL MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOME AGREEMENT ON RIPPLES OF
ENERGY RIDING NORTHEAST IN THE FLOW FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO GIVE MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION BY AFTERNOON.

CONTINUED ISOLATED POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS HARD TO TIME IMPULSES
MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. INCREASING HUMIDITY FRIDAY NIGHT AS DEW
POINTS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 60S.

COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN. MUCH
COOLER ON SUNDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...ALONG WITH A SLOW
MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY...IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF PIT
CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. RIDGING IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD IN BY MID
WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES UNTIL
INCREASING ABOVE AVERAGE BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH DIURNAL CU ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
UNDER RIDGING. THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST LATER FRIDAY
MORNING WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW SHOULD BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS BY AFTERNOON...SO INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION FOR PIT
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE TAF.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT...AND COULD CONTINUE ESPECIALLY S OF PIT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281725
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
125 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND WARM TODAY. DISTURBANCES WILL BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG THE RIDGES AND CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHEAST.
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES THIS
AFTERNOON. LOWER DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH BUT AS
FRONT WASHES OUT THIS EVENING LESS IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
WILL MAKE IT TO THE MASON DIXON LINE. MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON
UNCHANGED IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW
ENGLAND WITH A BASICALLY DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPS CLOSE TO
MODEL MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOME AGREEMENT ON RIPPLES OF
ENERGY RIDING NORTHEAST IN THE FLOW FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO GIVE MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION BY AFTERNOON.

CONTINUED ISOLATED POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS HARD TO TIME IMPULSES
MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. INCREASING HUMIDITY FRIDAY NIGHT AS DEW
POINTS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 60S.

COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN. MUCH
COOLER ON SUNDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...ALONG WITH A SLOW
MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY...IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF PIT
CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. RIDGING IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD IN BY MID
WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES UNTIL
INCREASING ABOVE AVERAGE BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH DIURNAL CU ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
UNDER RIDGING. THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST LATER FRIDAY
MORNING WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW SHOULD BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS BY AFTERNOON...SO INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION FOR PIT
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE TAF.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT...AND COULD CONTINUE ESPECIALLY S OF PIT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281725
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
125 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND WARM TODAY. DISTURBANCES WILL BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG THE RIDGES AND CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHEAST.
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES THIS
AFTERNOON. LOWER DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH BUT AS
FRONT WASHES OUT THIS EVENING LESS IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
WILL MAKE IT TO THE MASON DIXON LINE. MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON
UNCHANGED IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW
ENGLAND WITH A BASICALLY DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPS CLOSE TO
MODEL MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOME AGREEMENT ON RIPPLES OF
ENERGY RIDING NORTHEAST IN THE FLOW FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO GIVE MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION BY AFTERNOON.

CONTINUED ISOLATED POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS HARD TO TIME IMPULSES
MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. INCREASING HUMIDITY FRIDAY NIGHT AS DEW
POINTS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 60S.

COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN. MUCH
COOLER ON SUNDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...ALONG WITH A SLOW
MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY...IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF PIT
CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. RIDGING IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD IN BY MID
WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES UNTIL
INCREASING ABOVE AVERAGE BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH DIURNAL CU ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
UNDER RIDGING. THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST LATER FRIDAY
MORNING WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW SHOULD BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS BY AFTERNOON...SO INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION FOR PIT
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE TAF.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT...AND COULD CONTINUE ESPECIALLY S OF PIT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281536
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1136 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND WARM TODAY. DISTURBANCES WILL BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG THE RIDGES AND CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHEAST.
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES THIS
AFTERNOON. LOWER DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH BUT AS
FRONT WASHES OUT THIS EVENING LESS IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
WILL MAKE IT TO THE MASON DIXON LINE. MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON
UNCHANGED IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW
ENGLAND WITH A BASICALLY DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPS CLOSE TO
MODEL MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOME AGREEMENT ON RIPPLES OF
ENERGY RIDING NORTHEAST IN THE FLOW FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO GIVE MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION BY AFTERNOON.

CONTINUED ISOLATED POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS HARD TO TIME IMPULSES
MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. INCREASING HUMIDITY FRIDAY NIGHT AS DEW
POINTS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 60S.

COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MUCH COOLER SUNDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR DAILY
RAIN CHANCES. HIGHEST CHANCE POPS RELEGATED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES AS THIS IS WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL OCCUR. A
CUT- OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI WILL FEED GULF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION EVENTUALLY PUSHING THE REMNANTS
OF THE BOUNDARY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO
GRADUALLY BUILD IN AGAIN TO THE EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN DISTURBED UNTIL THEN.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT FOR MOST PORTS UNDER BUILDING
RIDGING. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY LINGERING NEAR THE SOUTHERN PA
BORDER SHOULD BRING MORE CU AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM
NEAR MGW...THOUGH CHANCES PRECIP ARE TOO LOW FOR A TAF MENTION.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
WITH A CROSSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281536
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1136 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND WARM TODAY. DISTURBANCES WILL BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG THE RIDGES AND CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHEAST.
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES THIS
AFTERNOON. LOWER DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH BUT AS
FRONT WASHES OUT THIS EVENING LESS IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
WILL MAKE IT TO THE MASON DIXON LINE. MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON
UNCHANGED IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW
ENGLAND WITH A BASICALLY DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPS CLOSE TO
MODEL MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOME AGREEMENT ON RIPPLES OF
ENERGY RIDING NORTHEAST IN THE FLOW FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO GIVE MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION BY AFTERNOON.

CONTINUED ISOLATED POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS HARD TO TIME IMPULSES
MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. INCREASING HUMIDITY FRIDAY NIGHT AS DEW
POINTS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 60S.

COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MUCH COOLER SUNDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR DAILY
RAIN CHANCES. HIGHEST CHANCE POPS RELEGATED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES AS THIS IS WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL OCCUR. A
CUT- OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI WILL FEED GULF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION EVENTUALLY PUSHING THE REMNANTS
OF THE BOUNDARY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO
GRADUALLY BUILD IN AGAIN TO THE EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN DISTURBED UNTIL THEN.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT FOR MOST PORTS UNDER BUILDING
RIDGING. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY LINGERING NEAR THE SOUTHERN PA
BORDER SHOULD BRING MORE CU AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM
NEAR MGW...THOUGH CHANCES PRECIP ARE TOO LOW FOR A TAF MENTION.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
WITH A CROSSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281334
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
934 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND WARM TODAY. DISTURBANCES WILL BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH IS SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH.
CONTINUED SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES
AHEAD OF FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. LOWER DEW POINTS WILL GRADUALLY
WORK INTO THE NORTH BUT AS FRONT WASHES OUT THIS EVENING LESS IN
THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL MAKE IT TO THE MASON DIXON
LINE. MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY LOW TO MID 80S.

SURFACE HIGH/H500 RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS
UPSTATE NEW YORK OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW RETURN FLOW TO
COMMENCE LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL START TO PUSH MOISTURE AND SOME
CLOUDS BACK NORTHWARD. ONLY A STRAY SHOWER FOR THE SOUTHEAST
RIDGES POSSIBLE BEFORE DAYBREAK. TEMPS CLOSE TO MODEL MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGE WILL QUICKLY PASS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING
ALLOWING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO KICK BACK IN...RESULTING IN THE
RETURN OF MOISTURE. OPTED FOR COVERAGE WORDING IN WEATHER GRIDS AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
DRIVEN LARGELY BY INSTABILITY AND WILL GENERALLY LACK A FOCUSING
MECHANISM. LIKELY POPS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE OF THE WV/MD/PA MOUNTAINS...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN.

WITH THE FRONT WELL OFF TO THE WEST STILL FRIDAY EVENING...KEEP MUCH
LOWER POPS OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING. PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BLOOM SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MUCH COOLER SUNDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR DAILY
RAIN CHANCES. HIGHEST CHANCE POPS RELEGATED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES AS THIS IS WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL OCCUR. A
CUT- OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI WILL FEED GULF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION EVENTUALLY PUSHING THE REMNANTS
OF THE BOUNDARY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO
GRADUALLY BUILD IN AGAIN TO THE EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN DISTURBED UNTIL THEN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CU RULE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CU IS
POSSIBLE AT MOST PORTS THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED BY
LATE MORNING AS CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH UNDER
BUILDING RIDGING. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY LINGERING NEAR THE
SOUTHERN PA BORDER SHOULD KEEP CEILINGS IN PLACE AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM NEAR MGW...THOUGH CHANCES PRECIP ARE
TOO LOW FOR A TAF MENTION. VFR SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
WITH A CROSSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281138
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
738 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. DISTURBANCES
WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ADJUSTMENTS FOR POPS AND SKY BASED ON OBSERVER AND NEAR TERM MODEL
DATA. PREVIOUS...A SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
CWA WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING...FINALLY
STALLING OUT NEAR MGW LATER TODAY. THIS POSITION MAY SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WITH DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
CWA. EXPECTING A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE
FRONT TODAY. WHILE DEWPOINTS WILL BE A BIT LOWER
TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.

SURFACE HIGH/H500 RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS
UPSTATE NEW YORK BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RETURN FLOW TO
COMMENCE LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL START TO PUSH MOISTURE AND SOME
CLOUDS BACK NORTHWARD. THINK ANY PRECIPITATION WILL WAIT UNTIL
AFTER 12Z THOUGH AS A TRIGGER IS LACKING AND LIFT SHOULD BE
MEAGER. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
LOWER THAN THIS MORNING...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGE WILL QUICKLY PASS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING
ALLOWING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO KICK BACK IN...RESULTING IN THE
RETURN OF MOISTURE. OPTED FOR COVERAGE WORDING IN WEATHER GRIDS AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
DRIVEN LARGELY BY INSTABILITY AND WILL GENERALLY LACK A FOCUSING
MECHANISM. LIKELY POPS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE OF THE WV/MD/PA MOUNTAINS...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN.

WITH THE FRONT WELL OFF TO THE WEST STILL FRIDAY EVENING...KEEP MUCH
LOWER POPS OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING. PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BLOOM SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE. THE FRONT WILL VERY
SLOWLY APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THE MAIN UPPER WAVE
PASSING NEAR JAMES BAY...THE BOUNDARY WILL SPLAY SW TO NE AND
EVENTUALLY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE SHORT TERM AND HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED.  TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY...KEEPING DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR DAILY RAIN CHANCES. KEEP
THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS RELEGATED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS THIS
IS WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL OCCUR. A CUT-OFF UPPER
LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI WILL FEED GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION EVENTUALLY PUSHING THE REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN
AGAIN TO THE EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THE PATTERN LOOKS
TO REMAIN DISTURBED UNTIL THEN.  TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CU RULE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CU IS
POSSIBLE AT MOST PORTS THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED BY
LATE MORNING AS CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH UNDER
BUILDING RIDGING. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY LINGERING NEAR THE
SOUTHERN PA BORDER SHOULD KEEP CEILINGS IN PLACE AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM NEAR MGW...THOUGH CHANCES PRECIP ARE
TOO LOW FOR A TAF MENTION. VFR SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
WITH A CROSSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281138
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
738 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. DISTURBANCES
WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ADJUSTMENTS FOR POPS AND SKY BASED ON OBSERVER AND NEAR TERM MODEL
DATA. PREVIOUS...A SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
CWA WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING...FINALLY
STALLING OUT NEAR MGW LATER TODAY. THIS POSITION MAY SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WITH DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
CWA. EXPECTING A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE
FRONT TODAY. WHILE DEWPOINTS WILL BE A BIT LOWER
TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.

SURFACE HIGH/H500 RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS
UPSTATE NEW YORK BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RETURN FLOW TO
COMMENCE LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL START TO PUSH MOISTURE AND SOME
CLOUDS BACK NORTHWARD. THINK ANY PRECIPITATION WILL WAIT UNTIL
AFTER 12Z THOUGH AS A TRIGGER IS LACKING AND LIFT SHOULD BE
MEAGER. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
LOWER THAN THIS MORNING...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGE WILL QUICKLY PASS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING
ALLOWING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO KICK BACK IN...RESULTING IN THE
RETURN OF MOISTURE. OPTED FOR COVERAGE WORDING IN WEATHER GRIDS AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
DRIVEN LARGELY BY INSTABILITY AND WILL GENERALLY LACK A FOCUSING
MECHANISM. LIKELY POPS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE OF THE WV/MD/PA MOUNTAINS...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN.

WITH THE FRONT WELL OFF TO THE WEST STILL FRIDAY EVENING...KEEP MUCH
LOWER POPS OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING. PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BLOOM SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE. THE FRONT WILL VERY
SLOWLY APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THE MAIN UPPER WAVE
PASSING NEAR JAMES BAY...THE BOUNDARY WILL SPLAY SW TO NE AND
EVENTUALLY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE SHORT TERM AND HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED.  TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY...KEEPING DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR DAILY RAIN CHANCES. KEEP
THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS RELEGATED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS THIS
IS WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL OCCUR. A CUT-OFF UPPER
LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI WILL FEED GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION EVENTUALLY PUSHING THE REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN
AGAIN TO THE EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THE PATTERN LOOKS
TO REMAIN DISTURBED UNTIL THEN.  TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CU RULE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CU IS
POSSIBLE AT MOST PORTS THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED BY
LATE MORNING AS CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH UNDER
BUILDING RIDGING. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY LINGERING NEAR THE
SOUTHERN PA BORDER SHOULD KEEP CEILINGS IN PLACE AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM NEAR MGW...THOUGH CHANCES PRECIP ARE
TOO LOW FOR A TAF MENTION. VFR SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
WITH A CROSSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281138
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
738 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. DISTURBANCES
WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ADJUSTMENTS FOR POPS AND SKY BASED ON OBSERVER AND NEAR TERM MODEL
DATA. PREVIOUS...A SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
CWA WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING...FINALLY
STALLING OUT NEAR MGW LATER TODAY. THIS POSITION MAY SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WITH DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
CWA. EXPECTING A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE
FRONT TODAY. WHILE DEWPOINTS WILL BE A BIT LOWER
TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.

SURFACE HIGH/H500 RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS
UPSTATE NEW YORK BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RETURN FLOW TO
COMMENCE LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL START TO PUSH MOISTURE AND SOME
CLOUDS BACK NORTHWARD. THINK ANY PRECIPITATION WILL WAIT UNTIL
AFTER 12Z THOUGH AS A TRIGGER IS LACKING AND LIFT SHOULD BE
MEAGER. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
LOWER THAN THIS MORNING...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGE WILL QUICKLY PASS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING
ALLOWING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO KICK BACK IN...RESULTING IN THE
RETURN OF MOISTURE. OPTED FOR COVERAGE WORDING IN WEATHER GRIDS AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
DRIVEN LARGELY BY INSTABILITY AND WILL GENERALLY LACK A FOCUSING
MECHANISM. LIKELY POPS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE OF THE WV/MD/PA MOUNTAINS...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN.

WITH THE FRONT WELL OFF TO THE WEST STILL FRIDAY EVENING...KEEP MUCH
LOWER POPS OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING. PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BLOOM SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE. THE FRONT WILL VERY
SLOWLY APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THE MAIN UPPER WAVE
PASSING NEAR JAMES BAY...THE BOUNDARY WILL SPLAY SW TO NE AND
EVENTUALLY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE SHORT TERM AND HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED.  TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY...KEEPING DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR DAILY RAIN CHANCES. KEEP
THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS RELEGATED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS THIS
IS WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL OCCUR. A CUT-OFF UPPER
LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI WILL FEED GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION EVENTUALLY PUSHING THE REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN
AGAIN TO THE EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THE PATTERN LOOKS
TO REMAIN DISTURBED UNTIL THEN.  TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CU RULE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CU IS
POSSIBLE AT MOST PORTS THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED BY
LATE MORNING AS CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH UNDER
BUILDING RIDGING. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY LINGERING NEAR THE
SOUTHERN PA BORDER SHOULD KEEP CEILINGS IN PLACE AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM NEAR MGW...THOUGH CHANCES PRECIP ARE
TOO LOW FOR A TAF MENTION. VFR SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
WITH A CROSSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281138
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
738 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. DISTURBANCES
WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ADJUSTMENTS FOR POPS AND SKY BASED ON OBSERVER AND NEAR TERM MODEL
DATA. PREVIOUS...A SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
CWA WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING...FINALLY
STALLING OUT NEAR MGW LATER TODAY. THIS POSITION MAY SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WITH DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
CWA. EXPECTING A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE
FRONT TODAY. WHILE DEWPOINTS WILL BE A BIT LOWER
TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.

SURFACE HIGH/H500 RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS
UPSTATE NEW YORK BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RETURN FLOW TO
COMMENCE LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL START TO PUSH MOISTURE AND SOME
CLOUDS BACK NORTHWARD. THINK ANY PRECIPITATION WILL WAIT UNTIL
AFTER 12Z THOUGH AS A TRIGGER IS LACKING AND LIFT SHOULD BE
MEAGER. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
LOWER THAN THIS MORNING...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGE WILL QUICKLY PASS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING
ALLOWING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO KICK BACK IN...RESULTING IN THE
RETURN OF MOISTURE. OPTED FOR COVERAGE WORDING IN WEATHER GRIDS AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
DRIVEN LARGELY BY INSTABILITY AND WILL GENERALLY LACK A FOCUSING
MECHANISM. LIKELY POPS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE OF THE WV/MD/PA MOUNTAINS...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN.

WITH THE FRONT WELL OFF TO THE WEST STILL FRIDAY EVENING...KEEP MUCH
LOWER POPS OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING. PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BLOOM SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE. THE FRONT WILL VERY
SLOWLY APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THE MAIN UPPER WAVE
PASSING NEAR JAMES BAY...THE BOUNDARY WILL SPLAY SW TO NE AND
EVENTUALLY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE SHORT TERM AND HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED.  TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY...KEEPING DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR DAILY RAIN CHANCES. KEEP
THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS RELEGATED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS THIS
IS WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL OCCUR. A CUT-OFF UPPER
LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI WILL FEED GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION EVENTUALLY PUSHING THE REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN
AGAIN TO THE EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THE PATTERN LOOKS
TO REMAIN DISTURBED UNTIL THEN.  TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CU RULE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CU IS
POSSIBLE AT MOST PORTS THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED BY
LATE MORNING AS CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH UNDER
BUILDING RIDGING. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY LINGERING NEAR THE
SOUTHERN PA BORDER SHOULD KEEP CEILINGS IN PLACE AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM NEAR MGW...THOUGH CHANCES PRECIP ARE
TOO LOW FOR A TAF MENTION. VFR SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
WITH A CROSSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281039
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
639 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
FOR TODAY. MOISTURE RETURNS NORTHWARD FOR FRIDAY...BRINGING BETTER
RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
635 AM...MINOR CHANGES TO SKY AND POP GRIDS. FRONT CONTINUES TO
WORK INTO NORTHWESTERN CWA WITH RELATIVELY LITTLE FANFARE. DRIER
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK IN...WITH CLOUDS DECREASING APPRECIABLY
ACROSS THE NORTH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SHRA ARE DYING QUICKLY AS SHORTWAVE SHEARS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...TAKING 110 KNOT H250 JET STREAK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
ALONG WITH ITS RRQ UPPER DIVERGENCE. THUS...SUPPORT FOR LIFT IS
WANING AND EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
CWA WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING...FINALLY
STALLING OUT NEAR MGW LATER TODAY. THIS POSITION MAY SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WITH DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
CWA. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
COULD BE...SO KEEPING COVERAGE MINIMAL. EXPECTING A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE FRONT TODAY. WHILE DEWPOINTS WILL
BE A BIT LOWER TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY.

SURFACE HIGH/H500 RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS
UPSTATE NEW YORK BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RETURN FLOW TO
COMMENCE LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL START TO PUSH MOISTURE AND SOME
CLOUDS BACK NORTHWARD. THINK ANY PRECIPITATION WILL WAIT UNTIL
AFTER 12Z THOUGH AS A TRIGGER IS LACKING AND LIFT SHOULD BE
MEAGER. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
LOWER THAN THIS MORNING...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGE WILL QUICKLY PASS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING
ALLOWING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO KICK BACK IN...RESULTING IN THE
RETURN OF MOISTURE. OPTED FOR COVERAGE WORDING IN WEATHER GRIDS AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
DRIVEN LARGELY BY INSTABILITY AND WILL GENERALLY LACK A FOCUSING
MECHANISM. LIKELY POPS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE OF THE WV/MD/PA MOUNTAINS...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN.

WITH THE FRONT WELL OFF TO THE WEST STILL FRIDAY EVENING...KEEP MUCH
LOWER POPS OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING. PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BLOOM SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE. THE FRONT WILL VERY
SLOWLY APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THE MAIN UPPER WAVE
PASSING NEAR JAMES BAY...THE BOUNDARY WILL SPLAY SW TO NE AND
EVENTUALLY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE SHORT TERM AND HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED.  TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY...KEEPING DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR DAILY RAIN CHANCES. KEEP
THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS RELEGATED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS THIS
IS WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL OCCUR. A CUT-OFF UPPER
LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI WILL FEED GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION EVENTUALLY PUSHING THE REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN
AGAIN TO THE EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THE PATTERN LOOKS
TO REMAIN DISTURBED UNTIL THEN.  TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
BOUNDARY NOW THROUGH FKL AND PHD. FKL/DUJ HAVE MANAGED TO FORM
SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG THAT WILL BURN OFF BY MID-MORNING.
OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ARRIVE FROM THE
NORTH...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE FOR THE MOST PART. SHORT
PERIOD OF MVFR STRATOCU POSSIBLE JUST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING AT A FEW TERMINALS. BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL IN OR NEAR
THE MGW VICNITY. ENOUGH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN FROM FROM
I-68 ON SOUTH TO PERHAPS CREATE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THESE WILL MOSTLY COLLAPSE WITH SUNSET. MOISTURE BEGINS
TO STREAM BACK NORTHWARD AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS RETURN FLOW
COMMENCES ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH...BUT MAINLY
MID/HI CLOUDS ARE FORECAST...THUS CONTINUING VFR. CL

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281039
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
639 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
FOR TODAY. MOISTURE RETURNS NORTHWARD FOR FRIDAY...BRINGING BETTER
RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
635 AM...MINOR CHANGES TO SKY AND POP GRIDS. FRONT CONTINUES TO
WORK INTO NORTHWESTERN CWA WITH RELATIVELY LITTLE FANFARE. DRIER
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK IN...WITH CLOUDS DECREASING APPRECIABLY
ACROSS THE NORTH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SHRA ARE DYING QUICKLY AS SHORTWAVE SHEARS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...TAKING 110 KNOT H250 JET STREAK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
ALONG WITH ITS RRQ UPPER DIVERGENCE. THUS...SUPPORT FOR LIFT IS
WANING AND EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
CWA WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING...FINALLY
STALLING OUT NEAR MGW LATER TODAY. THIS POSITION MAY SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WITH DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
CWA. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
COULD BE...SO KEEPING COVERAGE MINIMAL. EXPECTING A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE FRONT TODAY. WHILE DEWPOINTS WILL
BE A BIT LOWER TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY.

SURFACE HIGH/H500 RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS
UPSTATE NEW YORK BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RETURN FLOW TO
COMMENCE LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL START TO PUSH MOISTURE AND SOME
CLOUDS BACK NORTHWARD. THINK ANY PRECIPITATION WILL WAIT UNTIL
AFTER 12Z THOUGH AS A TRIGGER IS LACKING AND LIFT SHOULD BE
MEAGER. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
LOWER THAN THIS MORNING...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGE WILL QUICKLY PASS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING
ALLOWING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO KICK BACK IN...RESULTING IN THE
RETURN OF MOISTURE. OPTED FOR COVERAGE WORDING IN WEATHER GRIDS AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
DRIVEN LARGELY BY INSTABILITY AND WILL GENERALLY LACK A FOCUSING
MECHANISM. LIKELY POPS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE OF THE WV/MD/PA MOUNTAINS...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN.

WITH THE FRONT WELL OFF TO THE WEST STILL FRIDAY EVENING...KEEP MUCH
LOWER POPS OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING. PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BLOOM SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE. THE FRONT WILL VERY
SLOWLY APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THE MAIN UPPER WAVE
PASSING NEAR JAMES BAY...THE BOUNDARY WILL SPLAY SW TO NE AND
EVENTUALLY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE SHORT TERM AND HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED.  TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY...KEEPING DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR DAILY RAIN CHANCES. KEEP
THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS RELEGATED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS THIS
IS WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL OCCUR. A CUT-OFF UPPER
LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI WILL FEED GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION EVENTUALLY PUSHING THE REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN
AGAIN TO THE EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THE PATTERN LOOKS
TO REMAIN DISTURBED UNTIL THEN.  TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
BOUNDARY NOW THROUGH FKL AND PHD. FKL/DUJ HAVE MANAGED TO FORM
SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG THAT WILL BURN OFF BY MID-MORNING.
OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ARRIVE FROM THE
NORTH...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE FOR THE MOST PART. SHORT
PERIOD OF MVFR STRATOCU POSSIBLE JUST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING AT A FEW TERMINALS. BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL IN OR NEAR
THE MGW VICNITY. ENOUGH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN FROM FROM
I-68 ON SOUTH TO PERHAPS CREATE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THESE WILL MOSTLY COLLAPSE WITH SUNSET. MOISTURE BEGINS
TO STREAM BACK NORTHWARD AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS RETURN FLOW
COMMENCES ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH...BUT MAINLY
MID/HI CLOUDS ARE FORECAST...THUS CONTINUING VFR. CL

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281039
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
639 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
FOR TODAY. MOISTURE RETURNS NORTHWARD FOR FRIDAY...BRINGING BETTER
RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
635 AM...MINOR CHANGES TO SKY AND POP GRIDS. FRONT CONTINUES TO
WORK INTO NORTHWESTERN CWA WITH RELATIVELY LITTLE FANFARE. DRIER
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK IN...WITH CLOUDS DECREASING APPRECIABLY
ACROSS THE NORTH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SHRA ARE DYING QUICKLY AS SHORTWAVE SHEARS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...TAKING 110 KNOT H250 JET STREAK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
ALONG WITH ITS RRQ UPPER DIVERGENCE. THUS...SUPPORT FOR LIFT IS
WANING AND EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
CWA WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING...FINALLY
STALLING OUT NEAR MGW LATER TODAY. THIS POSITION MAY SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WITH DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
CWA. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
COULD BE...SO KEEPING COVERAGE MINIMAL. EXPECTING A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE FRONT TODAY. WHILE DEWPOINTS WILL
BE A BIT LOWER TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY.

SURFACE HIGH/H500 RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS
UPSTATE NEW YORK BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RETURN FLOW TO
COMMENCE LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL START TO PUSH MOISTURE AND SOME
CLOUDS BACK NORTHWARD. THINK ANY PRECIPITATION WILL WAIT UNTIL
AFTER 12Z THOUGH AS A TRIGGER IS LACKING AND LIFT SHOULD BE
MEAGER. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
LOWER THAN THIS MORNING...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGE WILL QUICKLY PASS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING
ALLOWING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO KICK BACK IN...RESULTING IN THE
RETURN OF MOISTURE. OPTED FOR COVERAGE WORDING IN WEATHER GRIDS AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
DRIVEN LARGELY BY INSTABILITY AND WILL GENERALLY LACK A FOCUSING
MECHANISM. LIKELY POPS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE OF THE WV/MD/PA MOUNTAINS...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN.

WITH THE FRONT WELL OFF TO THE WEST STILL FRIDAY EVENING...KEEP MUCH
LOWER POPS OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING. PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BLOOM SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE. THE FRONT WILL VERY
SLOWLY APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THE MAIN UPPER WAVE
PASSING NEAR JAMES BAY...THE BOUNDARY WILL SPLAY SW TO NE AND
EVENTUALLY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE SHORT TERM AND HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED.  TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY...KEEPING DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR DAILY RAIN CHANCES. KEEP
THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS RELEGATED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS THIS
IS WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL OCCUR. A CUT-OFF UPPER
LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI WILL FEED GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION EVENTUALLY PUSHING THE REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN
AGAIN TO THE EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THE PATTERN LOOKS
TO REMAIN DISTURBED UNTIL THEN.  TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
BOUNDARY NOW THROUGH FKL AND PHD. FKL/DUJ HAVE MANAGED TO FORM
SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG THAT WILL BURN OFF BY MID-MORNING.
OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ARRIVE FROM THE
NORTH...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE FOR THE MOST PART. SHORT
PERIOD OF MVFR STRATOCU POSSIBLE JUST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING AT A FEW TERMINALS. BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL IN OR NEAR
THE MGW VICNITY. ENOUGH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN FROM FROM
I-68 ON SOUTH TO PERHAPS CREATE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THESE WILL MOSTLY COLLAPSE WITH SUNSET. MOISTURE BEGINS
TO STREAM BACK NORTHWARD AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS RETURN FLOW
COMMENCES ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH...BUT MAINLY
MID/HI CLOUDS ARE FORECAST...THUS CONTINUING VFR. CL

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280755
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
355 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
FOR TODAY. MOISTURE RETURNS NORTHWARD FOR FRIDAY...BRINGING BETTER
RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHRA ARE DYING QUICKLY AS SHORTWAVE SHEARS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...TAKING 110 KNOT H250 JET STREAK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
ALONG WITH ITS RRQ UPPER DIVERGENCE. THUS...SUPPORT FOR LIFT IS
WANING AND EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
CWA WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING...FINALLY
STALLING OUT NEAR MGW LATER TODAY. THIS POSITION MAY SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WITH DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
CWA. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
COULD BE...SO KEEPING COVERAGE MINIMAL. EXPECTING A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE FRONT TODAY. WHILE DEWPOINTS WILL
BE A BIT LOWER TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY.

SURFACE HIGH/H500 RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS
UPSTATE NEW YORK BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RETURN FLOW TO
COMMENCE LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL START TO PUSH MOISTURE AND SOME
CLOUDS BACK NORTHWARD. THINK ANY PRECIPITATION WILL WAIT UNTIL
AFTER 12Z THOUGH AS A TRIGGER IS LACKING AND LIFT SHOULD BE
MEAGER. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
LOWER THAN THIS MORNING...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. CL


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGE WILL QUICKLY PASS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING
ALLOWING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO KICK BACK IN...RESULTING IN THE
RETURN OF MOISTURE. OPTED FOR COVERAGE WORDING IN WEATHER GRIDS AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
DRIVEN LARGELY BY INSTABILITY AND WILL GENERALLY LACK A FOCUSING
MECHANISM. LIKELY POPS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE OF THE WV/MD/PA MOUNTAINS...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN.

WITH THE FRONT WELL OFF TO THE WEST STILL FRIDAY EVENING...KEEP MUCH
LOWER POPS OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING. PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BLOOM SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE. THE FRONT WILL VERY
SLOWLY APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THE MAIN UPPER WAVE
PASSING NEAR JAMES BAY...THE BOUNDARY WILL SPLAY SW TO NE AND
EVENTUALLY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE SHORT TERM AND HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED.  TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY...KEEPING DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR DAILY RAIN CHANCES. KEEP
THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS RELEGATED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS THIS
IS WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL OCCUR. A CUT-OFF UPPER
LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI WILL FEED GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION EVENTUALLY PUSHING THE REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN
AGAIN TO THE EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THE PATTERN LOOKS
TO REMAIN DISTURBED UNTIL THEN.  TAX

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH OF
PIT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT.
MVFR/BRIEF IFR CIGS/VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT FKL/DUJ THROUGH 09Z.
THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD...COMING TO A REST NEAR A ZZV/MGW
LINE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE ALONG/BEHIND THE
FRONT TOWARD SUNRISE. EXPECT THESE TO MIX INTO A CU DECK BY LATE
MORNING. FROM THERE...DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH...AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LIGHT
WINDS WILL SWING THROUGH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WITH TIME.  CL

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280755
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
355 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
FOR TODAY. MOISTURE RETURNS NORTHWARD FOR FRIDAY...BRINGING BETTER
RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHRA ARE DYING QUICKLY AS SHORTWAVE SHEARS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...TAKING 110 KNOT H250 JET STREAK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
ALONG WITH ITS RRQ UPPER DIVERGENCE. THUS...SUPPORT FOR LIFT IS
WANING AND EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
CWA WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING...FINALLY
STALLING OUT NEAR MGW LATER TODAY. THIS POSITION MAY SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WITH DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
CWA. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
COULD BE...SO KEEPING COVERAGE MINIMAL. EXPECTING A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE FRONT TODAY. WHILE DEWPOINTS WILL
BE A BIT LOWER TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY.

SURFACE HIGH/H500 RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS
UPSTATE NEW YORK BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RETURN FLOW TO
COMMENCE LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL START TO PUSH MOISTURE AND SOME
CLOUDS BACK NORTHWARD. THINK ANY PRECIPITATION WILL WAIT UNTIL
AFTER 12Z THOUGH AS A TRIGGER IS LACKING AND LIFT SHOULD BE
MEAGER. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
LOWER THAN THIS MORNING...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. CL


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGE WILL QUICKLY PASS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING
ALLOWING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO KICK BACK IN...RESULTING IN THE
RETURN OF MOISTURE. OPTED FOR COVERAGE WORDING IN WEATHER GRIDS AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
DRIVEN LARGELY BY INSTABILITY AND WILL GENERALLY LACK A FOCUSING
MECHANISM. LIKELY POPS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE OF THE WV/MD/PA MOUNTAINS...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN.

WITH THE FRONT WELL OFF TO THE WEST STILL FRIDAY EVENING...KEEP MUCH
LOWER POPS OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING. PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BLOOM SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE. THE FRONT WILL VERY
SLOWLY APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THE MAIN UPPER WAVE
PASSING NEAR JAMES BAY...THE BOUNDARY WILL SPLAY SW TO NE AND
EVENTUALLY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE SHORT TERM AND HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED.  TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY...KEEPING DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR DAILY RAIN CHANCES. KEEP
THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS RELEGATED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS THIS
IS WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL OCCUR. A CUT-OFF UPPER
LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI WILL FEED GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION EVENTUALLY PUSHING THE REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN
AGAIN TO THE EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THE PATTERN LOOKS
TO REMAIN DISTURBED UNTIL THEN.  TAX

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH OF
PIT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT.
MVFR/BRIEF IFR CIGS/VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT FKL/DUJ THROUGH 09Z.
THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD...COMING TO A REST NEAR A ZZV/MGW
LINE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE ALONG/BEHIND THE
FRONT TOWARD SUNRISE. EXPECT THESE TO MIX INTO A CU DECK BY LATE
MORNING. FROM THERE...DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH...AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LIGHT
WINDS WILL SWING THROUGH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WITH TIME.  CL

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280541
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
141 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A WEAK VORT WILL RIDE NORTHEASTWARD IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A NEARBY UPPER JET STREAK WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
DEGREE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG AN AXIS OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO NORTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS AXIS...CAPE VALUES HAVE
SURGED TOWARD 700-1200 J/KG ACROSS OUR AREA...AND MODEL
PROJECTIONS INDICATE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL APPROACH 45 KTS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-80 THROUGH THE EVENING. RATHER BURLY DCAPE VALUES
ARE ALSO PRESENT AHEAD OF ONGOING CONVECTOIN ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO
AT THE MOMENT...SO A WIND THREAT SEEMS TO BE THE LARGEST CONCERN
GOING INTO THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...ONGOING CONVECTION
HAS LARGELY ALREADY GUST OUT...WITH A QUITE DISCERNIBLE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY EVIDENT ON KPBZ WSR-88D...SO THE WIND THREAT WILL BE
GENERALLY CONFINED NORTH OF PITTSBURGH...AND ANY SEVERE WIND IS
EXTREMELY UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL FOLLOW THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT MORNING. THIS WILL BRING PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR
IN FROM THE NORTH AS SURFACE FLOW TURNS NORTHERLY. HOWEVER...LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PEELING TO THE
NORTHEAST...AND THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT FAILS TO BUILD
SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE FRONT NOT CLEARING THE
ENTIRETY OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY MORNING OR EVEN
INTO THE DAYTIME ON THURSDAY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN THURSDAY...THOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WV/MD
RIDGES AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY
CROSSES. MODEL PROGS HAVE SHIFTED THE RIDGE AXIS FURTHER EAST FOR
FRIDAY...RESULTING IN A QUICKER RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A
WEAK EMBEDDED CROSSING SHORTWAVE. INCLUDED CHANCE POPS FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...BRINGING INCREASING POPS THROUGH THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE LATEST GRIDDED MOS AND SREF NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WERE TO TEMPERATURES AND POPS
MAINLY INTO MONDAY TO BE IN BETTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND NEW WPC PROGS. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS REGION AND STALL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. LIKELY POPS ACROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED WITH FROPA AND COOL HIGH
PRESSING NOSING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY. HOW FAST
STALLED BOUNDARY SHIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MAIN PROBLEM INTO
MID WEEK. FOR NOW STAYED CLOSE TO WPC PROGS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH OF
PIT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT.
MVFR/BRIEF IFR CIGS/VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT FKL/DUJ THROUGH 09Z.
THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD...COMING TO A REST NEAR A ZZV/MGW
LINE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE ALONG/BEHIND THE
FRONT TOWARD SUNRISE. EXPECT THESE TO MIX INTO A CU DECK BY LATE
MORNING. FROM THERE...DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH...AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LIGHT
WINDS WILL SWING THROUGH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WITH TIME.  CL

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280541
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
141 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A WEAK VORT WILL RIDE NORTHEASTWARD IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A NEARBY UPPER JET STREAK WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
DEGREE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG AN AXIS OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO NORTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS AXIS...CAPE VALUES HAVE
SURGED TOWARD 700-1200 J/KG ACROSS OUR AREA...AND MODEL
PROJECTIONS INDICATE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL APPROACH 45 KTS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-80 THROUGH THE EVENING. RATHER BURLY DCAPE VALUES
ARE ALSO PRESENT AHEAD OF ONGOING CONVECTOIN ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO
AT THE MOMENT...SO A WIND THREAT SEEMS TO BE THE LARGEST CONCERN
GOING INTO THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...ONGOING CONVECTION
HAS LARGELY ALREADY GUST OUT...WITH A QUITE DISCERNIBLE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY EVIDENT ON KPBZ WSR-88D...SO THE WIND THREAT WILL BE
GENERALLY CONFINED NORTH OF PITTSBURGH...AND ANY SEVERE WIND IS
EXTREMELY UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL FOLLOW THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT MORNING. THIS WILL BRING PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR
IN FROM THE NORTH AS SURFACE FLOW TURNS NORTHERLY. HOWEVER...LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PEELING TO THE
NORTHEAST...AND THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT FAILS TO BUILD
SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE FRONT NOT CLEARING THE
ENTIRETY OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY MORNING OR EVEN
INTO THE DAYTIME ON THURSDAY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN THURSDAY...THOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WV/MD
RIDGES AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY
CROSSES. MODEL PROGS HAVE SHIFTED THE RIDGE AXIS FURTHER EAST FOR
FRIDAY...RESULTING IN A QUICKER RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A
WEAK EMBEDDED CROSSING SHORTWAVE. INCLUDED CHANCE POPS FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...BRINGING INCREASING POPS THROUGH THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE LATEST GRIDDED MOS AND SREF NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WERE TO TEMPERATURES AND POPS
MAINLY INTO MONDAY TO BE IN BETTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND NEW WPC PROGS. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS REGION AND STALL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. LIKELY POPS ACROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED WITH FROPA AND COOL HIGH
PRESSING NOSING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY. HOW FAST
STALLED BOUNDARY SHIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MAIN PROBLEM INTO
MID WEEK. FOR NOW STAYED CLOSE TO WPC PROGS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH OF
PIT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT.
MVFR/BRIEF IFR CIGS/VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT FKL/DUJ THROUGH 09Z.
THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD...COMING TO A REST NEAR A ZZV/MGW
LINE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE ALONG/BEHIND THE
FRONT TOWARD SUNRISE. EXPECT THESE TO MIX INTO A CU DECK BY LATE
MORNING. FROM THERE...DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH...AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LIGHT
WINDS WILL SWING THROUGH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WITH TIME.  CL

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280541
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
141 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A WEAK VORT WILL RIDE NORTHEASTWARD IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A NEARBY UPPER JET STREAK WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
DEGREE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG AN AXIS OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO NORTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS AXIS...CAPE VALUES HAVE
SURGED TOWARD 700-1200 J/KG ACROSS OUR AREA...AND MODEL
PROJECTIONS INDICATE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL APPROACH 45 KTS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-80 THROUGH THE EVENING. RATHER BURLY DCAPE VALUES
ARE ALSO PRESENT AHEAD OF ONGOING CONVECTOIN ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO
AT THE MOMENT...SO A WIND THREAT SEEMS TO BE THE LARGEST CONCERN
GOING INTO THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...ONGOING CONVECTION
HAS LARGELY ALREADY GUST OUT...WITH A QUITE DISCERNIBLE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY EVIDENT ON KPBZ WSR-88D...SO THE WIND THREAT WILL BE
GENERALLY CONFINED NORTH OF PITTSBURGH...AND ANY SEVERE WIND IS
EXTREMELY UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL FOLLOW THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT MORNING. THIS WILL BRING PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR
IN FROM THE NORTH AS SURFACE FLOW TURNS NORTHERLY. HOWEVER...LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PEELING TO THE
NORTHEAST...AND THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT FAILS TO BUILD
SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE FRONT NOT CLEARING THE
ENTIRETY OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY MORNING OR EVEN
INTO THE DAYTIME ON THURSDAY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN THURSDAY...THOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WV/MD
RIDGES AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY
CROSSES. MODEL PROGS HAVE SHIFTED THE RIDGE AXIS FURTHER EAST FOR
FRIDAY...RESULTING IN A QUICKER RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A
WEAK EMBEDDED CROSSING SHORTWAVE. INCLUDED CHANCE POPS FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...BRINGING INCREASING POPS THROUGH THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE LATEST GRIDDED MOS AND SREF NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WERE TO TEMPERATURES AND POPS
MAINLY INTO MONDAY TO BE IN BETTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND NEW WPC PROGS. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS REGION AND STALL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. LIKELY POPS ACROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED WITH FROPA AND COOL HIGH
PRESSING NOSING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY. HOW FAST
STALLED BOUNDARY SHIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MAIN PROBLEM INTO
MID WEEK. FOR NOW STAYED CLOSE TO WPC PROGS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH OF
PIT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT.
MVFR/BRIEF IFR CIGS/VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT FKL/DUJ THROUGH 09Z.
THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD...COMING TO A REST NEAR A ZZV/MGW
LINE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE ALONG/BEHIND THE
FRONT TOWARD SUNRISE. EXPECT THESE TO MIX INTO A CU DECK BY LATE
MORNING. FROM THERE...DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH...AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LIGHT
WINDS WILL SWING THROUGH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WITH TIME.  CL

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280541
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
141 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A WEAK VORT WILL RIDE NORTHEASTWARD IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A NEARBY UPPER JET STREAK WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
DEGREE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG AN AXIS OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO NORTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS AXIS...CAPE VALUES HAVE
SURGED TOWARD 700-1200 J/KG ACROSS OUR AREA...AND MODEL
PROJECTIONS INDICATE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL APPROACH 45 KTS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-80 THROUGH THE EVENING. RATHER BURLY DCAPE VALUES
ARE ALSO PRESENT AHEAD OF ONGOING CONVECTOIN ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO
AT THE MOMENT...SO A WIND THREAT SEEMS TO BE THE LARGEST CONCERN
GOING INTO THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...ONGOING CONVECTION
HAS LARGELY ALREADY GUST OUT...WITH A QUITE DISCERNIBLE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY EVIDENT ON KPBZ WSR-88D...SO THE WIND THREAT WILL BE
GENERALLY CONFINED NORTH OF PITTSBURGH...AND ANY SEVERE WIND IS
EXTREMELY UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL FOLLOW THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT MORNING. THIS WILL BRING PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR
IN FROM THE NORTH AS SURFACE FLOW TURNS NORTHERLY. HOWEVER...LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PEELING TO THE
NORTHEAST...AND THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT FAILS TO BUILD
SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE FRONT NOT CLEARING THE
ENTIRETY OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY MORNING OR EVEN
INTO THE DAYTIME ON THURSDAY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN THURSDAY...THOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WV/MD
RIDGES AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY
CROSSES. MODEL PROGS HAVE SHIFTED THE RIDGE AXIS FURTHER EAST FOR
FRIDAY...RESULTING IN A QUICKER RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A
WEAK EMBEDDED CROSSING SHORTWAVE. INCLUDED CHANCE POPS FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...BRINGING INCREASING POPS THROUGH THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE LATEST GRIDDED MOS AND SREF NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WERE TO TEMPERATURES AND POPS
MAINLY INTO MONDAY TO BE IN BETTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND NEW WPC PROGS. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS REGION AND STALL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. LIKELY POPS ACROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED WITH FROPA AND COOL HIGH
PRESSING NOSING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY. HOW FAST
STALLED BOUNDARY SHIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MAIN PROBLEM INTO
MID WEEK. FOR NOW STAYED CLOSE TO WPC PROGS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH OF
PIT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT.
MVFR/BRIEF IFR CIGS/VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT FKL/DUJ THROUGH 09Z.
THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD...COMING TO A REST NEAR A ZZV/MGW
LINE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE ALONG/BEHIND THE
FRONT TOWARD SUNRISE. EXPECT THESE TO MIX INTO A CU DECK BY LATE
MORNING. FROM THERE...DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH...AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LIGHT
WINDS WILL SWING THROUGH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WITH TIME.  CL

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280230
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1030 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK VORT WILL RIDE NORTHEASTWARD IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A NEARBY UPPER JET STREAK WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
DEGREE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG AN AXIS OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO NORTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS AXIS...CAPE VALUES HAVE
SURGED TOWARD 700-1200 J/KG ACROSS OUR AREA...AND MODEL
PROJECTIONS INDICATE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL APPROACH 45 KTS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-80 THROUGH THE EVENING. RATHER BURLY DCAPE VALUES
ARE ALSO PRESENT AHEAD OF ONGOING CONVECTOIN ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO
AT THE MOMENT...SO A WIND THREAT SEEMS TO BE THE LARGEST CONCERN
GOING INTO THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...ONGOING CONVECTION
HAS LARGELY ALREADY GUST OUT...WITH A QUITE DISCERNIBLE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY EVIDENT ON KPBZ WSR-88D...SO THE WIND THREAT WILL BE
GENERALLY CONFINED NORTH OF PITTSBURGH...AND ANY SEVERE WIND IS
EXTREMELY UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL FOLLOW THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT MORNING. THIS WILL BRING PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR
IN FROM THE NORTH AS SURFACE FLOW TURNS NORTHERLY. HOWEVER...LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PEELING TO THE
NORTHEAST...AND THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT FAILS TO BUILD
SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE FRONT NOT CLEARING THE
ENTIRETY OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY MORNING OR EVEN
INTO THE DAYTIME ON THURSDAY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN THURSDAY...THOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WV/MD
RIDGES AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY
CROSSES. MODEL PROGS HAVE SHIFTED THE RIDGE AXIS FURTHER EAST FOR
FRIDAY...RESULTING IN A QUICKER RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A
WEAK EMBEDDED CROSSING SHORTWAVE. INCLUDED CHANCE POPS FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...BRINGING INCREASING POPS THROUGH THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE LATEST GRIDDED MOS AND SREF NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WERE TO TEMPERATURES AND POPS
MAINLY INTO MONDAY TO BE IN BETTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND NEW WPC PROGS. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS REGION AND STALL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. LIKELY POPS ACROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED WITH FROPA AND COOL HIGH
PRESSING NOSING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY. HOW FAST
STALLED BOUNDARY SHIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MAIN PROBLEM INTO
MID WEEK. FOR NOW STAYED CLOSE TO WPC PROGS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINS STRONGEST TO THE NW OF ALL
OUR SITES. THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE REMNANT
ACTIVITY SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A WEAK FRONT. THIS WILL BRING
DYING SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SITES
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN WESTERLY THEN NORTHERLY BY
THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN...HOWEVER BEFORE IT DOES...SOME
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WHERE IT DOES RAIN. THE FRONT WILL HAVE
DIFFICULTY CLEARING THE KMGW AND KZZV BEFORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...ALLOWING FOR A RESUMPTION IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW BY NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280230
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1030 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK VORT WILL RIDE NORTHEASTWARD IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A NEARBY UPPER JET STREAK WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
DEGREE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG AN AXIS OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO NORTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS AXIS...CAPE VALUES HAVE
SURGED TOWARD 700-1200 J/KG ACROSS OUR AREA...AND MODEL
PROJECTIONS INDICATE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL APPROACH 45 KTS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-80 THROUGH THE EVENING. RATHER BURLY DCAPE VALUES
ARE ALSO PRESENT AHEAD OF ONGOING CONVECTOIN ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO
AT THE MOMENT...SO A WIND THREAT SEEMS TO BE THE LARGEST CONCERN
GOING INTO THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...ONGOING CONVECTION
HAS LARGELY ALREADY GUST OUT...WITH A QUITE DISCERNIBLE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY EVIDENT ON KPBZ WSR-88D...SO THE WIND THREAT WILL BE
GENERALLY CONFINED NORTH OF PITTSBURGH...AND ANY SEVERE WIND IS
EXTREMELY UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL FOLLOW THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT MORNING. THIS WILL BRING PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR
IN FROM THE NORTH AS SURFACE FLOW TURNS NORTHERLY. HOWEVER...LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PEELING TO THE
NORTHEAST...AND THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT FAILS TO BUILD
SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE FRONT NOT CLEARING THE
ENTIRETY OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY MORNING OR EVEN
INTO THE DAYTIME ON THURSDAY. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN THURSDAY...THOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WV/MD
RIDGES AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY
CROSSES. MODEL PROGS HAVE SHIFTED THE RIDGE AXIS FURTHER EAST FOR
FRIDAY...RESULTING IN A QUICKER RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A
WEAK EMBEDDED CROSSING SHORTWAVE. INCLUDED CHANCE POPS FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...BRINGING INCREASING POPS THROUGH THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE LATEST GRIDDED MOS AND SREF NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WERE TO TEMPERATURES AND POPS
MAINLY INTO MONDAY TO BE IN BETTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND NEW WPC PROGS. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS REGION AND STALL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. LIKELY POPS ACROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED WITH FROPA AND COOL HIGH
PRESSING NOSING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY. HOW FAST
STALLED BOUNDARY SHIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MAIN PROBLEM INTO
MID WEEK. FOR NOW STAYED CLOSE TO WPC PROGS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINS STRONGEST TO THE NW OF ALL
OUR SITES. THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE REMNANT
ACTIVITY SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A WEAK FRONT. THIS WILL BRING
DYING SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SITES
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN WESTERLY THEN NORTHERLY BY
THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN...HOWEVER BEFORE IT DOES...SOME
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WHERE IT DOES RAIN. THE FRONT WILL HAVE
DIFFICULTY CLEARING THE KMGW AND KZZV BEFORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...ALLOWING FOR A RESUMPTION IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW BY NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 272334
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
734 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK VORT WILL RIDE NORTHEASTWARD IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A NEARBY UPPER JET STREAK WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
DEGREE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG AN AXIS OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO NORTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS AXIS...CAPE VALUES HAVE
SURGED TOWARD 700-1200 J/KG ACROSS OUR AREA...AND MODEL
PROJECTIONS INDICATE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL APPROACH 45 KTS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-80 THROUGH THE EVENING. RATHER BURLY DCAPE VALUES
ARE ALSO PRESENT AHEAD OF ONGOING CONVECTOIN ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO
AT THE MOMENT...SO A WIND THREAT SEEMS TO BE THE LARGEST CONCERN
GOING INTO THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

SPC HAS PLACES THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING...AND BASED UPON THE
LIFT/INSTABILITY/SHEAR PROFILE...THAT SEEMS REASONABLE. THE
FORECAST FAVORS THE BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN SAID
AREA...WITH DECREASING CHANCES AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY WANDERS
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA BY MORNING. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN THURSDAY...THOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WV/MD
RIDGES AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY
CROSSES. MODEL PROGS HAVE SHIFTED THE RIDGE AXIS FURTHER EAST FOR
FRIDAY...RESULTING IN A QUICKER RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A
WEAK EMBEDDED CROSSING SHORTWAVE. INCLUDED CHANCE POPS FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...BRINGING INCREASING POPS THROUGH THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE LATEST GRIDDED MOS AND SREF NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WERE TO TEMPERATURES AND POPS
MAINLY INTO MONDAY TO BE IN BETTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND NEW WPC PROGS. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS REGION AND STALL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. LIKELY POPS ACROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED WITH FROPA AND COOL HIGH
PRESSING NOSING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY. HOW FAST
STALLED BOUNDARY SHIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MAIN PROBLEM INTO
MID WEEK. FOR NOW STAYED CLOSE TO WPC PROGS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINS STRONGEST TO THE NW OF ALL
OUR SITES. THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE REMNANT
ACTIVITY SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A WEAK FRONT. THIS WILL BRING
DYING SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SITES
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN WESTERLY THEN NORTHERLY BY
THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN...HOWEVER BEFORE IT DOES...SOME
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WHERE IT DOES RAIN. THE FRONT WILL HAVE
DIFFICULTY CLEARING THE KMGW AND KZZV BEFORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...ALLOWING FOR A RESUMPTION IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW BY NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 272334
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
734 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK VORT WILL RIDE NORTHEASTWARD IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A NEARBY UPPER JET STREAK WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
DEGREE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG AN AXIS OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO NORTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS AXIS...CAPE VALUES HAVE
SURGED TOWARD 700-1200 J/KG ACROSS OUR AREA...AND MODEL
PROJECTIONS INDICATE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL APPROACH 45 KTS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-80 THROUGH THE EVENING. RATHER BURLY DCAPE VALUES
ARE ALSO PRESENT AHEAD OF ONGOING CONVECTOIN ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO
AT THE MOMENT...SO A WIND THREAT SEEMS TO BE THE LARGEST CONCERN
GOING INTO THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

SPC HAS PLACES THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING...AND BASED UPON THE
LIFT/INSTABILITY/SHEAR PROFILE...THAT SEEMS REASONABLE. THE
FORECAST FAVORS THE BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN SAID
AREA...WITH DECREASING CHANCES AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY WANDERS
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA BY MORNING. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN THURSDAY...THOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WV/MD
RIDGES AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY
CROSSES. MODEL PROGS HAVE SHIFTED THE RIDGE AXIS FURTHER EAST FOR
FRIDAY...RESULTING IN A QUICKER RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A
WEAK EMBEDDED CROSSING SHORTWAVE. INCLUDED CHANCE POPS FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...BRINGING INCREASING POPS THROUGH THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE LATEST GRIDDED MOS AND SREF NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WERE TO TEMPERATURES AND POPS
MAINLY INTO MONDAY TO BE IN BETTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND NEW WPC PROGS. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS REGION AND STALL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. LIKELY POPS ACROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED WITH FROPA AND COOL HIGH
PRESSING NOSING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY. HOW FAST
STALLED BOUNDARY SHIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MAIN PROBLEM INTO
MID WEEK. FOR NOW STAYED CLOSE TO WPC PROGS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINS STRONGEST TO THE NW OF ALL
OUR SITES. THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE REMNANT
ACTIVITY SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A WEAK FRONT. THIS WILL BRING
DYING SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SITES
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN WESTERLY THEN NORTHERLY BY
THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN...HOWEVER BEFORE IT DOES...SOME
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WHERE IT DOES RAIN. THE FRONT WILL HAVE
DIFFICULTY CLEARING THE KMGW AND KZZV BEFORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...ALLOWING FOR A RESUMPTION IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW BY NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 272334
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
734 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK VORT WILL RIDE NORTHEASTWARD IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A NEARBY UPPER JET STREAK WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
DEGREE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG AN AXIS OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO NORTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS AXIS...CAPE VALUES HAVE
SURGED TOWARD 700-1200 J/KG ACROSS OUR AREA...AND MODEL
PROJECTIONS INDICATE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL APPROACH 45 KTS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-80 THROUGH THE EVENING. RATHER BURLY DCAPE VALUES
ARE ALSO PRESENT AHEAD OF ONGOING CONVECTOIN ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO
AT THE MOMENT...SO A WIND THREAT SEEMS TO BE THE LARGEST CONCERN
GOING INTO THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

SPC HAS PLACES THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING...AND BASED UPON THE
LIFT/INSTABILITY/SHEAR PROFILE...THAT SEEMS REASONABLE. THE
FORECAST FAVORS THE BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN SAID
AREA...WITH DECREASING CHANCES AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY WANDERS
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA BY MORNING. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN THURSDAY...THOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WV/MD
RIDGES AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY
CROSSES. MODEL PROGS HAVE SHIFTED THE RIDGE AXIS FURTHER EAST FOR
FRIDAY...RESULTING IN A QUICKER RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A
WEAK EMBEDDED CROSSING SHORTWAVE. INCLUDED CHANCE POPS FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...BRINGING INCREASING POPS THROUGH THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE LATEST GRIDDED MOS AND SREF NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WERE TO TEMPERATURES AND POPS
MAINLY INTO MONDAY TO BE IN BETTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND NEW WPC PROGS. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS REGION AND STALL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. LIKELY POPS ACROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED WITH FROPA AND COOL HIGH
PRESSING NOSING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY. HOW FAST
STALLED BOUNDARY SHIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MAIN PROBLEM INTO
MID WEEK. FOR NOW STAYED CLOSE TO WPC PROGS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINS STRONGEST TO THE NW OF ALL
OUR SITES. THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE REMNANT
ACTIVITY SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A WEAK FRONT. THIS WILL BRING
DYING SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SITES
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN WESTERLY THEN NORTHERLY BY
THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN...HOWEVER BEFORE IT DOES...SOME
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WHERE IT DOES RAIN. THE FRONT WILL HAVE
DIFFICULTY CLEARING THE KMGW AND KZZV BEFORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...ALLOWING FOR A RESUMPTION IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW BY NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 272204
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
604 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK VORT WILL RIDE NORTHEASTWARD IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A NEARBY UPPER JET STREAK WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
DEGREE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG AN AXIS OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO NORTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS AXIS...CAPE VALUES HAVE
SURGED TOWARD 700-1200 J/KG ACROSS OUR AREA...AND MODEL
PROJECTIONS INDICATE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL APPROACH 45 KTS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-80 THROUGH THE EVENING. RATHER BURLY DCAPE VALUES
ARE ALSO PRESENT AHEAD OF ONGOING CONVECTOIN ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO
AT THE MOMENT...SO A WIND THREAT SEEMS TO BE THE LARGEST CONCERN
GOING INTO THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

SPC HAS PLACES THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING...AND BASED UPON THE
LIFT/INSTABILITY/SHEAR PROFILE...THAT SEEMS REASONABLE. THE
FORECAST FAVORS THE BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN SAID
AREA...WITH DECREASING CHANCES AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY WANDERS
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA BY MORNING. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN THURSDAY...THOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WV/MD
RIDGES AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY
CROSSES. MODEL PROGS HAVE SHIFTED THE RIDGE AXIS FURTHER EAST FOR
FRIDAY...RESULTING IN A QUICKER RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A
WEAK EMBEDDED CROSSING SHORTWAVE. INCLUDED CHANCE POPS FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...BRINGING INCREASING POPS THROUGH THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE LATEST GRIDDED MOS AND SREF NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WERE TO TEMPERATURES AND POPS
MAINLY INTO MONDAY TO BE IN BETTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND NEW WPC PROGS. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS REGION AND STALL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. LIKELY POPS ACROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED WITH FROPA AND COOL HIGH
PRESSING NOSING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY. HOW FAST
STALLED BOUNDARY SHIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MAIN PROBLEM INTO
MID WEEK. FOR NOW STAYED CLOSE TO WPC PROGS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR INTO THE EVENING. AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO WILL BE ENTERING EASTERN OHIO TOWARD 00Z AND HAVE
MAINTAINED VCTS FOR THE WESTERN MOST PORTS AND WELL AS KFKL. WOULD
EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BE DIMINISHING TONIGHT AS WEAK
BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST ACROSS REGION...SO VCSH WITH LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF RESTRICTIONS. THIS MAY WELL CHANGE DRAMATICALLY DEPENDING
ON STRENGTH AND TIMING OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING. BEHIND BOUNDARY
EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IN COOL ADVECTION AS WIND SHIFTS
WEST OVERNIGHT...THEN NORTHWEST UNDER 10 KTS THURSDAY MORNING WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 272204
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
604 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK VORT WILL RIDE NORTHEASTWARD IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A NEARBY UPPER JET STREAK WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
DEGREE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG AN AXIS OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO NORTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS AXIS...CAPE VALUES HAVE
SURGED TOWARD 700-1200 J/KG ACROSS OUR AREA...AND MODEL
PROJECTIONS INDICATE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL APPROACH 45 KTS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-80 THROUGH THE EVENING. RATHER BURLY DCAPE VALUES
ARE ALSO PRESENT AHEAD OF ONGOING CONVECTOIN ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO
AT THE MOMENT...SO A WIND THREAT SEEMS TO BE THE LARGEST CONCERN
GOING INTO THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

SPC HAS PLACES THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING...AND BASED UPON THE
LIFT/INSTABILITY/SHEAR PROFILE...THAT SEEMS REASONABLE. THE
FORECAST FAVORS THE BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN SAID
AREA...WITH DECREASING CHANCES AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY WANDERS
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA BY MORNING. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN THURSDAY...THOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WV/MD
RIDGES AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY
CROSSES. MODEL PROGS HAVE SHIFTED THE RIDGE AXIS FURTHER EAST FOR
FRIDAY...RESULTING IN A QUICKER RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A
WEAK EMBEDDED CROSSING SHORTWAVE. INCLUDED CHANCE POPS FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...BRINGING INCREASING POPS THROUGH THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE LATEST GRIDDED MOS AND SREF NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WERE TO TEMPERATURES AND POPS
MAINLY INTO MONDAY TO BE IN BETTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND NEW WPC PROGS. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS REGION AND STALL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. LIKELY POPS ACROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED WITH FROPA AND COOL HIGH
PRESSING NOSING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY. HOW FAST
STALLED BOUNDARY SHIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MAIN PROBLEM INTO
MID WEEK. FOR NOW STAYED CLOSE TO WPC PROGS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR INTO THE EVENING. AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO WILL BE ENTERING EASTERN OHIO TOWARD 00Z AND HAVE
MAINTAINED VCTS FOR THE WESTERN MOST PORTS AND WELL AS KFKL. WOULD
EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BE DIMINISHING TONIGHT AS WEAK
BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST ACROSS REGION...SO VCSH WITH LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF RESTRICTIONS. THIS MAY WELL CHANGE DRAMATICALLY DEPENDING
ON STRENGTH AND TIMING OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING. BEHIND BOUNDARY
EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IN COOL ADVECTION AS WIND SHIFTS
WEST OVERNIGHT...THEN NORTHWEST UNDER 10 KTS THURSDAY MORNING WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271842
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
242 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A LULL IN PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND
SURFACE BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...RETURNING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE REGION. THE BEST SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO STAY MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE
AREA...THOUGH NW PA INTO EASTERN OHIO COULD SEE MARGINAL
CONDITIONS FOR STRONG STORMS. WITH DRY MID LEVEL AIR IN PLACE
THESE AREAS HAVE SOME CHANCE AT SEEING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS...SO MAINTAINED A MENTION OF THIS
IN THE HWO. OTHERWISE... INSTABILITY SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING
WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS REMAINING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD
CONTINUE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN THURSDAY...THOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WV/MD
RIGDGES AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY
CROSSES. MODEL PROGS HAVE SHIFTED THE RIDGE AXIS FURTHER EAST FOR
FRIDAY...RESULTING IN A QUICKER RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A
WEAK EMBEDDED CROSSING SHORTWAVE. INCLUDED CHANCE POPS FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...BRINGING INCREASING POPS THROUGH THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE LATEST GRIDDED MOS AND SREF NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WERE TO TEMPERATURES AND POPS
MAINLY INTO MONDAY TO BE IN BETTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND NEW WPC PROGS. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS REGION AND STALL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. LIKELY POPS ACROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED WITH FROPA AND COOL HIGH
PRESSING NOSING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY. HOW FAST
STALLED BOUNDARY SHIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MAIN PROBLEM INTO
MID WEEK. FOR NOW STAYED CLOSE TO WPC PROGS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR INTO THE EVENING. AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO WILL BE ENTERING EASTERN OHIO TOWARD 00Z AND HAVE
MAINTAINED VCTS FOR THE WESTERN MOST PORTS AND WELL AS KFKL. WOULD
EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BE DIMINISHING TONIGHT AS WEAK
BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST ACROSS REGION...SO VCSH WITH LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF RESTRICTIONS. THIS MAY WELL CHANGE DRAMATICALLY DEPENDING
ON STRENGTH AND TIMING OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING. BEHIND BOUNDARY
EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IN COOL ADVECTION AS WIND SHIFTS
WEST OVERNIGHT...THEN NORTHWEST UNDER 10 KTS THURSDAY MORNING WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271842
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
242 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A LULL IN PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND
SURFACE BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...RETURNING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE REGION. THE BEST SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO STAY MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE
AREA...THOUGH NW PA INTO EASTERN OHIO COULD SEE MARGINAL
CONDITIONS FOR STRONG STORMS. WITH DRY MID LEVEL AIR IN PLACE
THESE AREAS HAVE SOME CHANCE AT SEEING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS...SO MAINTAINED A MENTION OF THIS
IN THE HWO. OTHERWISE... INSTABILITY SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING
WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS REMAINING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD
CONTINUE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN THURSDAY...THOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WV/MD
RIGDGES AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY
CROSSES. MODEL PROGS HAVE SHIFTED THE RIDGE AXIS FURTHER EAST FOR
FRIDAY...RESULTING IN A QUICKER RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A
WEAK EMBEDDED CROSSING SHORTWAVE. INCLUDED CHANCE POPS FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...BRINGING INCREASING POPS THROUGH THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE LATEST GRIDDED MOS AND SREF NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WERE TO TEMPERATURES AND POPS
MAINLY INTO MONDAY TO BE IN BETTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND NEW WPC PROGS. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS REGION AND STALL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. LIKELY POPS ACROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED WITH FROPA AND COOL HIGH
PRESSING NOSING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY. HOW FAST
STALLED BOUNDARY SHIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MAIN PROBLEM INTO
MID WEEK. FOR NOW STAYED CLOSE TO WPC PROGS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR INTO THE EVENING. AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO WILL BE ENTERING EASTERN OHIO TOWARD 00Z AND HAVE
MAINTAINED VCTS FOR THE WESTERN MOST PORTS AND WELL AS KFKL. WOULD
EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BE DIMINISHING TONIGHT AS WEAK
BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST ACROSS REGION...SO VCSH WITH LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF RESTRICTIONS. THIS MAY WELL CHANGE DRAMATICALLY DEPENDING
ON STRENGTH AND TIMING OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING. BEHIND BOUNDARY
EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IN COOL ADVECTION AS WIND SHIFTS
WEST OVERNIGHT...THEN NORTHWEST UNDER 10 KTS THURSDAY MORNING WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271729
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
129 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH PERIODIC SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AFTER SHOWERS EXIT THE WV/MD RIDGES..MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE...WITH THE
MORNING INSTABILITY CHART SHOWING RELATIVELY STABLE AIR. LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED
TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
BRINGING INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO TONIGHT.
MARGINAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WITH WARM AIR ALOFT IS PROGGED
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST PA INTO OHIO...THOUGH WITH SOME DRY
MID LEVEL AIR SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH
ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS.

THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING AS
INSTABILITY DIMINISHES AND UPPER SUPPORT EXITS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING WITH
BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT RESULTING IN A DRYING TREND FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY ALLOWING DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO KICK IN. THIS...AND
INCREASED SUNSHINE WILL FUEL TEMPERATURES PUSHING WELL INTO THE
80S...AT LEAST 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN NORMAL.

THE DRY WEATHER FADES AWAY QUICKLY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES...SOUTHERLY MOISTURE WILL FEED SATURDAY AFTERNOON
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL STILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL...BUT THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM MAY KEEP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN
FRIDAYS MARKS. TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WERE TO TEMPERATURES AND POPS
MAINLY INTO MONDAY TO BE IN BETTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND NEW WPC PROGS. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS REGION AND STALL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. LIKELY POPS ACROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED WITH FROPA AND COOL HIGH
PRESSING NOSING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY. HOW FAST
STALLED BOUNDARY SHIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MAIN PROBLEM INTO
MID WEEK. FOR NOW STAYED CLOSE TO WPC PROGS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR INTO THE EVENING. AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO WILL BE ENTERING EASTERN OHIO TOWARD 00Z AND HAVE
MAINTAINED VCTS FOR THE WESTERN MOST PORTS AND WELL AS KFKL. WOULD
EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BE DIMINISHING TONIGHT AS WEAK
BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST ACROSS REGION...SO VCSH WITH LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF RESTRICTIONS. THIS MAY WELL CHANGE DRAMATICALLY DEPENDING
ON STRENGTH AND TIMING OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING. BEHIND BOUNDARY
EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IN COOL ADVECTION AS WIND SHIFTS
WEST OVERNIGHT...THEN NORTHWEST UNDER 10 KTS THURSDAY MORNING WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271456
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1056 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH PERIODIC SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AFTER SHOWERS EXIT THE WV/MD RIDGES..MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE...WITH THE
MORNING INSTABILITY CHART SHOWING RELATIVELY STABLE AIR. LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED
TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
BRINGING INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDESTORM CHANCES INTO TONIGHT.
MARGINAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WITH WARM AIR ALOFT IS PROGGED
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST PA INTO OHIO...THOUGH WITH SOME DRY
MID LEVEL AIR SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH
ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS.

THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING AS
INSTABULITY DIMINISHES AND UPPER SUPPORT EXITS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING WITH
BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT RESULTING IN A DRYING TREND FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY ALLOWING DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO KICK IN. THIS...AND
INCREASED SUNSHINE WILL FUEL TEMPERATURES PUSHING WELL INTO THE
80S...AT LEAST 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN NORMAL.

THE DRY WEATHER FADES AWAY QUICKLY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES...SOUTHERLY MOISTURE WILL FEED SATURDAY AFTERNOON
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL STILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL...BUT THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM MAY KEEP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN
FRIDAYS MARKS. TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLEARS A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MEETS RESISTANCE CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS.
WITH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ACROSS LONG-RANGE MODELS...DECIDED TO
TAKE THE SLOWER FRONTAL PROGRESSION...ULTIMATELY LINGERING RAIN
CHANCES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...SOME
RELIEF FROM THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL COME SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS A DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS TO THE NORTH. HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEK...LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE HAD MAJOR DIFFERENCES WITH THE
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. THE LATEST
00Z GFS HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ITS ECMWF AND GFS
ENSEMBLE BRETHREN...KEEPING THE RETURN OF MOISTURE SUPPRESSED
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. HAVE LOWERED MONDAY AND TUESDAY
POPS TO REFLECT THIS. AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THE ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN
BRING WARM AND WET BACK INTO THE FORECAST. TAX

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CLOUD DECK HAS DEVELOPED OVER MOST TERMINALS WITH ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT THIS TO PERSIST UNTIL IT MIXES OUT INTO
A BKN CU DECK THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME DAYTIME INSTABILITY...BUT
PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAF. ANY STORM COULD PRODUCE
BRIEF IFR IN A DOWNPOUR. A MORE GENERAL CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES
WITH A MORE POTENT MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCE TONIGHT. BEST CHANCES OF
TSRA LIE FROM ZZV THROUGH PHD TO FKL. LESSER CHANCE TO THE EAST
BUT SHRA/VCSH STILL EXPECTED. KEEPING MOST LOCATION VFR AFTER
00Z...SAVE FOR LATE NIGHT FOG AT ZZV...AS TIMING OF ANY
RESTRICTIONS REMAINS PROBLEMATIC.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IS INDICATED AS PRECIP CHANCES DECLINE
THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...PRECIP...AND RESTRICTION CHANCES WILL
AGAIN INCREASE WITH AN ENCROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271456
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1056 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH PERIODIC SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AFTER SHOWERS EXIT THE WV/MD RIDGES..MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE...WITH THE
MORNING INSTABILITY CHART SHOWING RELATIVELY STABLE AIR. LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED
TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
BRINGING INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDESTORM CHANCES INTO TONIGHT.
MARGINAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WITH WARM AIR ALOFT IS PROGGED
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST PA INTO OHIO...THOUGH WITH SOME DRY
MID LEVEL AIR SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH
ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS.

THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING AS
INSTABULITY DIMINISHES AND UPPER SUPPORT EXITS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING WITH
BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT RESULTING IN A DRYING TREND FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY ALLOWING DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO KICK IN. THIS...AND
INCREASED SUNSHINE WILL FUEL TEMPERATURES PUSHING WELL INTO THE
80S...AT LEAST 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN NORMAL.

THE DRY WEATHER FADES AWAY QUICKLY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES...SOUTHERLY MOISTURE WILL FEED SATURDAY AFTERNOON
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL STILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL...BUT THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM MAY KEEP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN
FRIDAYS MARKS. TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLEARS A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MEETS RESISTANCE CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS.
WITH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ACROSS LONG-RANGE MODELS...DECIDED TO
TAKE THE SLOWER FRONTAL PROGRESSION...ULTIMATELY LINGERING RAIN
CHANCES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...SOME
RELIEF FROM THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL COME SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS A DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS TO THE NORTH. HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEK...LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE HAD MAJOR DIFFERENCES WITH THE
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. THE LATEST
00Z GFS HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ITS ECMWF AND GFS
ENSEMBLE BRETHREN...KEEPING THE RETURN OF MOISTURE SUPPRESSED
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. HAVE LOWERED MONDAY AND TUESDAY
POPS TO REFLECT THIS. AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THE ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN
BRING WARM AND WET BACK INTO THE FORECAST. TAX

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CLOUD DECK HAS DEVELOPED OVER MOST TERMINALS WITH ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT THIS TO PERSIST UNTIL IT MIXES OUT INTO
A BKN CU DECK THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME DAYTIME INSTABILITY...BUT
PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAF. ANY STORM COULD PRODUCE
BRIEF IFR IN A DOWNPOUR. A MORE GENERAL CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES
WITH A MORE POTENT MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCE TONIGHT. BEST CHANCES OF
TSRA LIE FROM ZZV THROUGH PHD TO FKL. LESSER CHANCE TO THE EAST
BUT SHRA/VCSH STILL EXPECTED. KEEPING MOST LOCATION VFR AFTER
00Z...SAVE FOR LATE NIGHT FOG AT ZZV...AS TIMING OF ANY
RESTRICTIONS REMAINS PROBLEMATIC.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IS INDICATED AS PRECIP CHANCES DECLINE
THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...PRECIP...AND RESTRICTION CHANCES WILL
AGAIN INCREASE WITH AN ENCROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271156
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
756 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH PERIODIC SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO EXIT AREAS EAST OF PIT THIS MORNING
GRADUALLY ENDING ANY SHOWERS. MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE WAVE...THOUGH SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE TOWARD MID AFTERNOON. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION BRINGING INCREASING
SHOWER AND THUNDESTORM CHANCES INTO TONIGHT. MARGINAL SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WITH WARM AIR ALOFT IS PROGGED ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA INTO OHIO... THOUGH WITH SOME DRY MID LEVEL AIR SOME
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER
STORMS.

THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING AS
INSTABULITY DIMINISHES AND UPPER SUPPORT EXITS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING WITH
BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT RESULTING IN A DRYING TREND FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY ALLOWING DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO KICK IN. THIS...AND
INCREASED SUNSHINE WILL FUEL TEMPERATURES PUSHING WELL INTO THE
80S...AT LEAST 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN NORMAL.

THE DRY WEATHER FADES AWAY QUICKLY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES...SOUTHERLY MOISTURE WILL FEED SATURDAY AFTERNOON
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL STILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL...BUT THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM MAY KEEP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN
FRIDAYS MARKS.  TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLEARS A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MEETS RESISTANCE CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS.
WITH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ACROSS LONG-RANGE MODELS...DECIDED TO
TAKE THE SLOWER FRONTAL PROGRESSION...ULTIMATELY LINGERING RAIN
CHANCES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...SOME
RELIEF FROM THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL COME SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS A DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS TO THE NORTH. HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEK...LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE HAD MAJOR DIFFERENCES WITH THE
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. THE LATEST
00Z GFS HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ITS ECMWF AND GFS
ENSEMBLE BRETHREN...KEEPING THE RETURN OF MOISTURE SUPPRESSED
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. HAVE LOWERED MONDAY AND TUESDAY
POPS TO REFLECT THIS. AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THE ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN
BRING WARM AND WET BACK INTO THE FORECAST.  TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER SOUTH AND EAST OF PIT AS SHORTWAVE
EXITS. MVFR CLOUD DECK HAS DEVELOPED OVER MOST TERMINALS WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT THIS TO PERSIST UNTIL IT
MIXES OUT INTO A BKN CU DECK LATER THIS MORNING. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAF. ANY STORM
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF IFR IN A DOWNPOUR. A MORE GENERAL CHANCE OF
RAIN ARRIVES WITH A MORE POTENT MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCE TONIGHT. BEST
CHANCES OF TSRA LIE FROM ZZV THROUGH PHD TO FKL. LESSER CHANCE TO
THE EAST BUT SHRA/VCSH STILL EXPECTED. KEEPING MOST LOCATION VFR
AFTER 00Z...SAVE FOR LATE NIGHT FOG AT ZZV...AS TIMING OF ANY
RESTRICTIONS REMAINS PROBLEMATIC.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IS INDICATED AS PRECIP CHANCES DECLINE
THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...PRECIP...AND RESTRICTION CHANCES WILL
AGAIN INCREASE WITH AN ENCROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271156
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
756 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH PERIODIC SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO EXIT AREAS EAST OF PIT THIS MORNING
GRADUALLY ENDING ANY SHOWERS. MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE WAVE...THOUGH SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE TOWARD MID AFTERNOON. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION BRINGING INCREASING
SHOWER AND THUNDESTORM CHANCES INTO TONIGHT. MARGINAL SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WITH WARM AIR ALOFT IS PROGGED ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA INTO OHIO... THOUGH WITH SOME DRY MID LEVEL AIR SOME
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER
STORMS.

THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING AS
INSTABULITY DIMINISHES AND UPPER SUPPORT EXITS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING WITH
BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT RESULTING IN A DRYING TREND FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY ALLOWING DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO KICK IN. THIS...AND
INCREASED SUNSHINE WILL FUEL TEMPERATURES PUSHING WELL INTO THE
80S...AT LEAST 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN NORMAL.

THE DRY WEATHER FADES AWAY QUICKLY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES...SOUTHERLY MOISTURE WILL FEED SATURDAY AFTERNOON
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL STILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL...BUT THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM MAY KEEP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN
FRIDAYS MARKS.  TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLEARS A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MEETS RESISTANCE CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS.
WITH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ACROSS LONG-RANGE MODELS...DECIDED TO
TAKE THE SLOWER FRONTAL PROGRESSION...ULTIMATELY LINGERING RAIN
CHANCES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...SOME
RELIEF FROM THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL COME SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS A DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS TO THE NORTH. HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEK...LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE HAD MAJOR DIFFERENCES WITH THE
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. THE LATEST
00Z GFS HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ITS ECMWF AND GFS
ENSEMBLE BRETHREN...KEEPING THE RETURN OF MOISTURE SUPPRESSED
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. HAVE LOWERED MONDAY AND TUESDAY
POPS TO REFLECT THIS. AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THE ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN
BRING WARM AND WET BACK INTO THE FORECAST.  TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER SOUTH AND EAST OF PIT AS SHORTWAVE
EXITS. MVFR CLOUD DECK HAS DEVELOPED OVER MOST TERMINALS WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT THIS TO PERSIST UNTIL IT
MIXES OUT INTO A BKN CU DECK LATER THIS MORNING. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAF. ANY STORM
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF IFR IN A DOWNPOUR. A MORE GENERAL CHANCE OF
RAIN ARRIVES WITH A MORE POTENT MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCE TONIGHT. BEST
CHANCES OF TSRA LIE FROM ZZV THROUGH PHD TO FKL. LESSER CHANCE TO
THE EAST BUT SHRA/VCSH STILL EXPECTED. KEEPING MOST LOCATION VFR
AFTER 00Z...SAVE FOR LATE NIGHT FOG AT ZZV...AS TIMING OF ANY
RESTRICTIONS REMAINS PROBLEMATIC.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IS INDICATED AS PRECIP CHANCES DECLINE
THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...PRECIP...AND RESTRICTION CHANCES WILL
AGAIN INCREASE WITH AN ENCROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271156
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
756 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH PERIODIC SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO EXIT AREAS EAST OF PIT THIS MORNING
GRADUALLY ENDING ANY SHOWERS. MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE WAVE...THOUGH SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE TOWARD MID AFTERNOON. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION BRINGING INCREASING
SHOWER AND THUNDESTORM CHANCES INTO TONIGHT. MARGINAL SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WITH WARM AIR ALOFT IS PROGGED ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA INTO OHIO... THOUGH WITH SOME DRY MID LEVEL AIR SOME
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER
STORMS.

THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING AS
INSTABULITY DIMINISHES AND UPPER SUPPORT EXITS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING WITH
BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT RESULTING IN A DRYING TREND FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY ALLOWING DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO KICK IN. THIS...AND
INCREASED SUNSHINE WILL FUEL TEMPERATURES PUSHING WELL INTO THE
80S...AT LEAST 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN NORMAL.

THE DRY WEATHER FADES AWAY QUICKLY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES...SOUTHERLY MOISTURE WILL FEED SATURDAY AFTERNOON
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL STILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL...BUT THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM MAY KEEP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN
FRIDAYS MARKS.  TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLEARS A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MEETS RESISTANCE CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS.
WITH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ACROSS LONG-RANGE MODELS...DECIDED TO
TAKE THE SLOWER FRONTAL PROGRESSION...ULTIMATELY LINGERING RAIN
CHANCES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...SOME
RELIEF FROM THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL COME SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS A DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS TO THE NORTH. HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEK...LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE HAD MAJOR DIFFERENCES WITH THE
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. THE LATEST
00Z GFS HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ITS ECMWF AND GFS
ENSEMBLE BRETHREN...KEEPING THE RETURN OF MOISTURE SUPPRESSED
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. HAVE LOWERED MONDAY AND TUESDAY
POPS TO REFLECT THIS. AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THE ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN
BRING WARM AND WET BACK INTO THE FORECAST.  TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER SOUTH AND EAST OF PIT AS SHORTWAVE
EXITS. MVFR CLOUD DECK HAS DEVELOPED OVER MOST TERMINALS WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT THIS TO PERSIST UNTIL IT
MIXES OUT INTO A BKN CU DECK LATER THIS MORNING. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAF. ANY STORM
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF IFR IN A DOWNPOUR. A MORE GENERAL CHANCE OF
RAIN ARRIVES WITH A MORE POTENT MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCE TONIGHT. BEST
CHANCES OF TSRA LIE FROM ZZV THROUGH PHD TO FKL. LESSER CHANCE TO
THE EAST BUT SHRA/VCSH STILL EXPECTED. KEEPING MOST LOCATION VFR
AFTER 00Z...SAVE FOR LATE NIGHT FOG AT ZZV...AS TIMING OF ANY
RESTRICTIONS REMAINS PROBLEMATIC.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IS INDICATED AS PRECIP CHANCES DECLINE
THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...PRECIP...AND RESTRICTION CHANCES WILL
AGAIN INCREASE WITH AN ENCROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271034
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
634 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY...WITH INCREASING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM...UPDATED FORECAST TO CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...PUSHING POPS A
BIT FURTHER WESTWARD FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. RAP/HRRR
CONTINUE TO LINGER SHRA ALONG THE RIDGES THROUGH MIDDAY...AND
STILL TEND TO AGREE WITH THIS THINKING. TO THE WEST...INCREASED
CLOUDS A BIT THIS MORNING...AS LOW CLOUD DECK HAS DEVELOPED.
EXPECT THESE TO MIX INTO A BKN CU DECK LATER TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS. THUNDER HAS ALL BUT CEASED WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY.
EASTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION IS SLOW...SO STILL EXPECT RAIN TO
LINGER ALONG THE RIDGES PAST SUNRISE. THE EXIT OF THE SHORTWAVE
WILL THEN ALLOW FOR A RELATIVE LULL IN ACTIVITY FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH KEPT A LOW CHANCE ALONG THE RIDGES
AS A WEAK LOBE OF VORTICITY LINGERS. ALTHOUGH SOME INSTABILITY
BUILDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE LACK OF A TRIGGER SUGGESTS
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION AT BEST WEST OF THE RIDGES.

A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE IN MICHIGAN LATER TODAY...AND
THEN BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT AS IT CROSSES THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. ACCOMPANYING SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LIKEWISE BE FADING AS
IT APPROACHES. HAVE SKIMMED LIKELY POPS ALONG THE NORTHWEST
FRINGE OF CWA...CLOSER TO SHORTWAVE. SPC HAS ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS IN THIS AREA. EXPECT SOMETHING SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. WHILE BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LIE TO THE
WEST...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT LOCATIONS LIKE ZZV AND PHD SUGGEST THAT
AROUND 1000 J/KG OF CAPE MAY COMBINE WITH 30-40 KNOTS OF MIDLEVEL
FLOW...ALLOWING FOR A FEW STORMS WITH STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. LESSER RISK TO THE EAST...WHERE CHANCE POPS ARE MAINTAINED
WITH LESS POTENTIAL LIFT. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY DIE DOWN
AFTER 06Z WITH LOSS OF SUPPORT FROM EXITING SHORTWAVE.

GOING TEMPERATURES WERE VERY CLOSE TO A GUIDANCE CONSENSUS...AND
ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS.  CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING WITH
BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT RESULTING IN A DRYING TREND FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY ALLOWING DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO KICK IN. THIS...AND
INCREASED SUNSHINE WILL FUEL TEMPERATURES PUSHING WELL INTO THE
80S...AT LEAST 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN NORMAL.

THE DRY WEATHER FADES AWAY QUICKLY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES...SOUTHERLY MOISTURE WILL FEED SATURDAY AFTERNOON
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL STILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL...BUT THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM MAY KEEP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN
FRIDAYS MARKS.  TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLEARS A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MEETS RESISTANCE CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS.
WITH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ACROSS LONG-RANGE MODELS...DECIDED TO
TAKE THE SLOWER FRONTAL PROGRESSION...ULTIMATELY LINGERING RAIN
CHANCES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...SOME
RELIEF FROM THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL COME SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS A DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS TO THE NORTH. HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEK...LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE HAD MAJOR DIFFERENCES WITH THE
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. THE LATEST
00Z GFS HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ITS ECMWF AND GFS
ENSEMBLE BRETHREN...KEEPING THE RETURN OF MOISTURE SUPPRESSED
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. HAVE LOWERED MONDAY AND TUESDAY
POPS TO REFLECT THIS. AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THE ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN
BRING WARM AND WET BACK INTO THE FORECAST.  TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER SOUTH AND EAST OF PIT AS SHORTWAVE
EXITS. MVFR CLOUD DECK HAS DEVELOPED OVER MOST TERMINALS WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT THIS TO PERSIST UNTIL IT
MIXES OUT INTO A BKN CU DECK LATER THIS MORNING. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAF. ANY STORM
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF IFR IN A DOWNPOUR. A MORE GENERAL CHANCE OF
RAIN ARRIVES WITH A MORE POTENT MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCE TONIGHT. BEST
CHANCES OF TSRA LIE FROM ZZV THROUGH PHD TO FKL. LESSER CHANCE TO
THE EAST BUT SHRA/VCSH STILL EXPECTED. KEEPING MOST LOCATION VFR
AFTER 00Z...SAVE FOR LATE NIGHT FOG AT ZZV...AS TIMING OF ANY
RESTRICTIONS REMAINS PROBLEMATIC.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IS INDICATED AS PRECIP CHANCES DECLINE
THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...PRECIP...AND RESTRICTION CHANCES WILL
AGAIN INCREASE WITH AN ENCROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271034
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
634 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY...WITH INCREASING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM...UPDATED FORECAST TO CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...PUSHING POPS A
BIT FURTHER WESTWARD FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. RAP/HRRR
CONTINUE TO LINGER SHRA ALONG THE RIDGES THROUGH MIDDAY...AND
STILL TEND TO AGREE WITH THIS THINKING. TO THE WEST...INCREASED
CLOUDS A BIT THIS MORNING...AS LOW CLOUD DECK HAS DEVELOPED.
EXPECT THESE TO MIX INTO A BKN CU DECK LATER TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS. THUNDER HAS ALL BUT CEASED WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY.
EASTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION IS SLOW...SO STILL EXPECT RAIN TO
LINGER ALONG THE RIDGES PAST SUNRISE. THE EXIT OF THE SHORTWAVE
WILL THEN ALLOW FOR A RELATIVE LULL IN ACTIVITY FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH KEPT A LOW CHANCE ALONG THE RIDGES
AS A WEAK LOBE OF VORTICITY LINGERS. ALTHOUGH SOME INSTABILITY
BUILDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE LACK OF A TRIGGER SUGGESTS
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION AT BEST WEST OF THE RIDGES.

A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE IN MICHIGAN LATER TODAY...AND
THEN BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT AS IT CROSSES THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. ACCOMPANYING SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LIKEWISE BE FADING AS
IT APPROACHES. HAVE SKIMMED LIKELY POPS ALONG THE NORTHWEST
FRINGE OF CWA...CLOSER TO SHORTWAVE. SPC HAS ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS IN THIS AREA. EXPECT SOMETHING SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. WHILE BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LIE TO THE
WEST...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT LOCATIONS LIKE ZZV AND PHD SUGGEST THAT
AROUND 1000 J/KG OF CAPE MAY COMBINE WITH 30-40 KNOTS OF MIDLEVEL
FLOW...ALLOWING FOR A FEW STORMS WITH STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. LESSER RISK TO THE EAST...WHERE CHANCE POPS ARE MAINTAINED
WITH LESS POTENTIAL LIFT. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY DIE DOWN
AFTER 06Z WITH LOSS OF SUPPORT FROM EXITING SHORTWAVE.

GOING TEMPERATURES WERE VERY CLOSE TO A GUIDANCE CONSENSUS...AND
ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS.  CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING WITH
BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT RESULTING IN A DRYING TREND FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY ALLOWING DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO KICK IN. THIS...AND
INCREASED SUNSHINE WILL FUEL TEMPERATURES PUSHING WELL INTO THE
80S...AT LEAST 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN NORMAL.

THE DRY WEATHER FADES AWAY QUICKLY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES...SOUTHERLY MOISTURE WILL FEED SATURDAY AFTERNOON
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL STILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL...BUT THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM MAY KEEP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN
FRIDAYS MARKS.  TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLEARS A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MEETS RESISTANCE CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS.
WITH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ACROSS LONG-RANGE MODELS...DECIDED TO
TAKE THE SLOWER FRONTAL PROGRESSION...ULTIMATELY LINGERING RAIN
CHANCES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...SOME
RELIEF FROM THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL COME SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS A DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS TO THE NORTH. HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEK...LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE HAD MAJOR DIFFERENCES WITH THE
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. THE LATEST
00Z GFS HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ITS ECMWF AND GFS
ENSEMBLE BRETHREN...KEEPING THE RETURN OF MOISTURE SUPPRESSED
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. HAVE LOWERED MONDAY AND TUESDAY
POPS TO REFLECT THIS. AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THE ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN
BRING WARM AND WET BACK INTO THE FORECAST.  TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER SOUTH AND EAST OF PIT AS SHORTWAVE
EXITS. MVFR CLOUD DECK HAS DEVELOPED OVER MOST TERMINALS WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT THIS TO PERSIST UNTIL IT
MIXES OUT INTO A BKN CU DECK LATER THIS MORNING. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAF. ANY STORM
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF IFR IN A DOWNPOUR. A MORE GENERAL CHANCE OF
RAIN ARRIVES WITH A MORE POTENT MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCE TONIGHT. BEST
CHANCES OF TSRA LIE FROM ZZV THROUGH PHD TO FKL. LESSER CHANCE TO
THE EAST BUT SHRA/VCSH STILL EXPECTED. KEEPING MOST LOCATION VFR
AFTER 00Z...SAVE FOR LATE NIGHT FOG AT ZZV...AS TIMING OF ANY
RESTRICTIONS REMAINS PROBLEMATIC.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IS INDICATED AS PRECIP CHANCES DECLINE
THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...PRECIP...AND RESTRICTION CHANCES WILL
AGAIN INCREASE WITH AN ENCROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271034
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
634 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY...WITH INCREASING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM...UPDATED FORECAST TO CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...PUSHING POPS A
BIT FURTHER WESTWARD FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. RAP/HRRR
CONTINUE TO LINGER SHRA ALONG THE RIDGES THROUGH MIDDAY...AND
STILL TEND TO AGREE WITH THIS THINKING. TO THE WEST...INCREASED
CLOUDS A BIT THIS MORNING...AS LOW CLOUD DECK HAS DEVELOPED.
EXPECT THESE TO MIX INTO A BKN CU DECK LATER TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS. THUNDER HAS ALL BUT CEASED WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY.
EASTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION IS SLOW...SO STILL EXPECT RAIN TO
LINGER ALONG THE RIDGES PAST SUNRISE. THE EXIT OF THE SHORTWAVE
WILL THEN ALLOW FOR A RELATIVE LULL IN ACTIVITY FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH KEPT A LOW CHANCE ALONG THE RIDGES
AS A WEAK LOBE OF VORTICITY LINGERS. ALTHOUGH SOME INSTABILITY
BUILDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE LACK OF A TRIGGER SUGGESTS
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION AT BEST WEST OF THE RIDGES.

A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE IN MICHIGAN LATER TODAY...AND
THEN BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT AS IT CROSSES THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. ACCOMPANYING SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LIKEWISE BE FADING AS
IT APPROACHES. HAVE SKIMMED LIKELY POPS ALONG THE NORTHWEST
FRINGE OF CWA...CLOSER TO SHORTWAVE. SPC HAS ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS IN THIS AREA. EXPECT SOMETHING SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. WHILE BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LIE TO THE
WEST...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT LOCATIONS LIKE ZZV AND PHD SUGGEST THAT
AROUND 1000 J/KG OF CAPE MAY COMBINE WITH 30-40 KNOTS OF MIDLEVEL
FLOW...ALLOWING FOR A FEW STORMS WITH STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. LESSER RISK TO THE EAST...WHERE CHANCE POPS ARE MAINTAINED
WITH LESS POTENTIAL LIFT. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY DIE DOWN
AFTER 06Z WITH LOSS OF SUPPORT FROM EXITING SHORTWAVE.

GOING TEMPERATURES WERE VERY CLOSE TO A GUIDANCE CONSENSUS...AND
ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS.  CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING WITH
BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT RESULTING IN A DRYING TREND FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY ALLOWING DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO KICK IN. THIS...AND
INCREASED SUNSHINE WILL FUEL TEMPERATURES PUSHING WELL INTO THE
80S...AT LEAST 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN NORMAL.

THE DRY WEATHER FADES AWAY QUICKLY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES...SOUTHERLY MOISTURE WILL FEED SATURDAY AFTERNOON
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL STILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL...BUT THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM MAY KEEP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN
FRIDAYS MARKS.  TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLEARS A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MEETS RESISTANCE CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS.
WITH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ACROSS LONG-RANGE MODELS...DECIDED TO
TAKE THE SLOWER FRONTAL PROGRESSION...ULTIMATELY LINGERING RAIN
CHANCES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...SOME
RELIEF FROM THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL COME SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS A DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS TO THE NORTH. HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEK...LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE HAD MAJOR DIFFERENCES WITH THE
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. THE LATEST
00Z GFS HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ITS ECMWF AND GFS
ENSEMBLE BRETHREN...KEEPING THE RETURN OF MOISTURE SUPPRESSED
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. HAVE LOWERED MONDAY AND TUESDAY
POPS TO REFLECT THIS. AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THE ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN
BRING WARM AND WET BACK INTO THE FORECAST.  TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER SOUTH AND EAST OF PIT AS SHORTWAVE
EXITS. MVFR CLOUD DECK HAS DEVELOPED OVER MOST TERMINALS WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT THIS TO PERSIST UNTIL IT
MIXES OUT INTO A BKN CU DECK LATER THIS MORNING. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAF. ANY STORM
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF IFR IN A DOWNPOUR. A MORE GENERAL CHANCE OF
RAIN ARRIVES WITH A MORE POTENT MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCE TONIGHT. BEST
CHANCES OF TSRA LIE FROM ZZV THROUGH PHD TO FKL. LESSER CHANCE TO
THE EAST BUT SHRA/VCSH STILL EXPECTED. KEEPING MOST LOCATION VFR
AFTER 00Z...SAVE FOR LATE NIGHT FOG AT ZZV...AS TIMING OF ANY
RESTRICTIONS REMAINS PROBLEMATIC.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IS INDICATED AS PRECIP CHANCES DECLINE
THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...PRECIP...AND RESTRICTION CHANCES WILL
AGAIN INCREASE WITH AN ENCROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271034
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
634 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY...WITH INCREASING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM...UPDATED FORECAST TO CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...PUSHING POPS A
BIT FURTHER WESTWARD FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. RAP/HRRR
CONTINUE TO LINGER SHRA ALONG THE RIDGES THROUGH MIDDAY...AND
STILL TEND TO AGREE WITH THIS THINKING. TO THE WEST...INCREASED
CLOUDS A BIT THIS MORNING...AS LOW CLOUD DECK HAS DEVELOPED.
EXPECT THESE TO MIX INTO A BKN CU DECK LATER TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS. THUNDER HAS ALL BUT CEASED WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY.
EASTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION IS SLOW...SO STILL EXPECT RAIN TO
LINGER ALONG THE RIDGES PAST SUNRISE. THE EXIT OF THE SHORTWAVE
WILL THEN ALLOW FOR A RELATIVE LULL IN ACTIVITY FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH KEPT A LOW CHANCE ALONG THE RIDGES
AS A WEAK LOBE OF VORTICITY LINGERS. ALTHOUGH SOME INSTABILITY
BUILDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE LACK OF A TRIGGER SUGGESTS
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION AT BEST WEST OF THE RIDGES.

A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE IN MICHIGAN LATER TODAY...AND
THEN BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT AS IT CROSSES THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. ACCOMPANYING SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LIKEWISE BE FADING AS
IT APPROACHES. HAVE SKIMMED LIKELY POPS ALONG THE NORTHWEST
FRINGE OF CWA...CLOSER TO SHORTWAVE. SPC HAS ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS IN THIS AREA. EXPECT SOMETHING SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. WHILE BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LIE TO THE
WEST...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT LOCATIONS LIKE ZZV AND PHD SUGGEST THAT
AROUND 1000 J/KG OF CAPE MAY COMBINE WITH 30-40 KNOTS OF MIDLEVEL
FLOW...ALLOWING FOR A FEW STORMS WITH STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. LESSER RISK TO THE EAST...WHERE CHANCE POPS ARE MAINTAINED
WITH LESS POTENTIAL LIFT. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY DIE DOWN
AFTER 06Z WITH LOSS OF SUPPORT FROM EXITING SHORTWAVE.

GOING TEMPERATURES WERE VERY CLOSE TO A GUIDANCE CONSENSUS...AND
ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS.  CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING WITH
BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT RESULTING IN A DRYING TREND FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY ALLOWING DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO KICK IN. THIS...AND
INCREASED SUNSHINE WILL FUEL TEMPERATURES PUSHING WELL INTO THE
80S...AT LEAST 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN NORMAL.

THE DRY WEATHER FADES AWAY QUICKLY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES...SOUTHERLY MOISTURE WILL FEED SATURDAY AFTERNOON
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL STILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL...BUT THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM MAY KEEP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN
FRIDAYS MARKS.  TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLEARS A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MEETS RESISTANCE CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS.
WITH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ACROSS LONG-RANGE MODELS...DECIDED TO
TAKE THE SLOWER FRONTAL PROGRESSION...ULTIMATELY LINGERING RAIN
CHANCES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...SOME
RELIEF FROM THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL COME SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS A DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS TO THE NORTH. HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEK...LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE HAD MAJOR DIFFERENCES WITH THE
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. THE LATEST
00Z GFS HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ITS ECMWF AND GFS
ENSEMBLE BRETHREN...KEEPING THE RETURN OF MOISTURE SUPPRESSED
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. HAVE LOWERED MONDAY AND TUESDAY
POPS TO REFLECT THIS. AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THE ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN
BRING WARM AND WET BACK INTO THE FORECAST.  TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER SOUTH AND EAST OF PIT AS SHORTWAVE
EXITS. MVFR CLOUD DECK HAS DEVELOPED OVER MOST TERMINALS WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT THIS TO PERSIST UNTIL IT
MIXES OUT INTO A BKN CU DECK LATER THIS MORNING. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAF. ANY STORM
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF IFR IN A DOWNPOUR. A MORE GENERAL CHANCE OF
RAIN ARRIVES WITH A MORE POTENT MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCE TONIGHT. BEST
CHANCES OF TSRA LIE FROM ZZV THROUGH PHD TO FKL. LESSER CHANCE TO
THE EAST BUT SHRA/VCSH STILL EXPECTED. KEEPING MOST LOCATION VFR
AFTER 00Z...SAVE FOR LATE NIGHT FOG AT ZZV...AS TIMING OF ANY
RESTRICTIONS REMAINS PROBLEMATIC.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IS INDICATED AS PRECIP CHANCES DECLINE
THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...PRECIP...AND RESTRICTION CHANCES WILL
AGAIN INCREASE WITH AN ENCROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270751
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
351 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY...WITH INCREASING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS. THUNDER HAS ALL BUT CEASED WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY.
EASTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION IS SLOW...SO STILL EXPECT RAIN TO
LINGER ALONG THE RIDGES PAST SUNRISE. THE EXIT OF THE SHORTWAVE
WILL THEN ALLOW FOR A RELATIVE LULL IN ACTIVITY FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH KEPT A LOW CHANCE ALONG THE RIDGES
AS A WEAK LOBE OF VORTICITY LINGERS. ALTHOUGH SOME INSTABILITY
BUILDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE LACK OF A TRIGGER SUGGESTS
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION AT BEST WEST OF THE RIDGES.

A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE IN MICHIGAN LATER TODAY...AND
THEN BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT AS IT CROSSES THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. ACCOMPANYING SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LIKEWISE BE FADING AS
IT APPROACHES. HAVE SKIMMED LIKELY POPS ALONG THE NORTHWEST
FRINGE OF CWA...CLOSER TO SHORTWAVE. SPC HAS ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS IN THIS AREA. EXPECT SOMETHING SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. WHILE BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LIE TO THE
WEST...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT LOCATIONS LIKE ZZV AND PHD SUGGEST THAT
AROUND 1000 J/KG OF CAPE MAY COMBINE WITH 30-40 KNOTS OF MIDLEVEL
FLOW...ALLOWING FOR A FEW STORMS WITH STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. LESSER RISK TO THE EAST...WHERE CHANCE POPS ARE MAINTAINED
WITH LESS POTENTIAL LIFT. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY DIE DOWN
AFTER 06Z WITH LOSS OF SUPPORT FROM EXITING SHORTWAVE.

GOING TEMPERATURES WERE VERY CLOSE TO A GUIDANCE CONSENSUS...AND
ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS.  CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING WITH
BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT RESULTING IN A DRYING TREND FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY ALLOWING DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO KICK IN. THIS...AND
INCREASED SUNSHINE WILL FUEL TEMPERATURES PUSHING WELL INTO THE
80S...AT LEAST 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN NORMAL.

THE DRY WEATHER FADES AWAY QUICKLY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES...SOUTHERLY MOISTURE WILL FEED SATURDAY AFTERNOON
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL STILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL...BUT THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM MAY KEEP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN
FRIDAYS MARKS.  TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLEARS A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MEETS RESISTANCE CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS.
WITH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ACROSS LONG-RANGE MODELS...DECIDED TO
TAKE THE SLOWER FRONTAL PROGRESSION...ULTIMATELY LINGERING RAIN
CHANCES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...SOME
RELIEF FROM THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL COME SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS A DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS TO THE NORTH. HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEK...LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE HAD MAJOR DIFFERENCES WITH THE
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. THE LATEST
00Z GFS HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ITS ECMWF AND GFS
ENSEMBLE BRETHREN...KEEPING THE RETURN OF MOISTURE SUPPRESSED
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. HAVE LOWERED MONDAY AND TUESDAY
POPS TO REFLECT THIS. AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THE ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN
BRING WARM AND WET BACK INTO THE FORECAST.  TAX

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CURRENTLY...WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES IN
SHRA AND DYING TSRA. THESE WILL PULL ACROSS THE RIDGES TOWARDS
SUNRISE. BEHIND THE RAIN...SOME MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED
WITH FOG. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT INTO A VFR CU DECK BY MIDDAY. ANY
DAYTIME SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BE QUITE SPOTTY AND DID NOT INCLUDE IN
TAF AT THIS TIME. NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AFTER 00Z...WITH MORE
RAIN ARRIVING FROM WEST TO EAST. KEPT VFR FOR NOW BUT BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IS INDICATED AS PRECIP CHANCES DECLINE
THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...PRECIP...AND RESTRICTION CHANCES WILL
AGAIN INCREASE WITH AN ENCROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270543
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
143 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH
PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WITH UNIMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN
FAIRLY NOMINAL...WITH NO REPORTS OF ANYTHING EVEN APPROACHING
SEVERE. AS THE NIGHT ENSUES...AND INSTABILITY REMAINED MODEST AT
BEST...DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE FUELED BY AN INCREASE IN MID-
LEVEL RH VALUES AND INCREASED SHEAR. THIS IS UNLIKELY TO RESULT IN
MUCH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL
BE LIKELY TO CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA. MORE ORGANIZED SHEAR LOOKS TO HOLD BACK FOR THE
MAIN LONG WAVE TROUGH CROSSING ON WEDNESDAY.

INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA AS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ENCROACHES WILL LIKELY KEEP A FLOOR UNDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
LOWS WILL STAY LARGELY WELL INTO THE 60S. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO EXIT THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...THOUGH MARGINAL SHEAR VALUES SHOULD HELP
LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

RIDGING LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY WEATHER. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VARIOUS LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS AGREE ON STUBBORN BOUNDARY LAID
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE CHANCE
POPS WERE PRESERVED WITH THE SUPPORT OF A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER
OVER THE OUTCOME OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST IN
TERMS OF MAGNITUDE...POSITION...AND TIMING. THEREFORE PERSISTENCE
WAS HEAVILY USED IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AND LOW CHANCE
POPS WERE INTRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CURRENTLY...WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES IN
SHRA AND DYING TSRA. THESE WILL PULL ACROSS THE RIDGES TOWARDS
SUNRISE. BEHIND THE RAIN...SOME MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED
WITH FOG. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT INTO A VFR CU DECK BY MIDDAY. ANY
DAYTIME SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BE QUITE SPOTTY AND DID NOT INCLUDE IN
TAF AT THIS TIME. NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AFTER 00Z...WITH MORE
RAIN ARRIVING FROM WEST TO EAST. KEPT VFR FOR NOW BUT BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IS INDICATED AS PRECIP CHANCES DECLINE
THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...PRECIP...AND RESTRICTION CHANCES WILL
AGAIN INCREASE WITH AN ENCROACING FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270543
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
143 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH
PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WITH UNIMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN
FAIRLY NOMINAL...WITH NO REPORTS OF ANYTHING EVEN APPROACHING
SEVERE. AS THE NIGHT ENSUES...AND INSTABILITY REMAINED MODEST AT
BEST...DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE FUELED BY AN INCREASE IN MID-
LEVEL RH VALUES AND INCREASED SHEAR. THIS IS UNLIKELY TO RESULT IN
MUCH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL
BE LIKELY TO CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA. MORE ORGANIZED SHEAR LOOKS TO HOLD BACK FOR THE
MAIN LONG WAVE TROUGH CROSSING ON WEDNESDAY.

INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA AS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ENCROACHES WILL LIKELY KEEP A FLOOR UNDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
LOWS WILL STAY LARGELY WELL INTO THE 60S. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO EXIT THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...THOUGH MARGINAL SHEAR VALUES SHOULD HELP
LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

RIDGING LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY WEATHER. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VARIOUS LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS AGREE ON STUBBORN BOUNDARY LAID
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE CHANCE
POPS WERE PRESERVED WITH THE SUPPORT OF A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER
OVER THE OUTCOME OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST IN
TERMS OF MAGNITUDE...POSITION...AND TIMING. THEREFORE PERSISTENCE
WAS HEAVILY USED IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AND LOW CHANCE
POPS WERE INTRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CURRENTLY...WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES IN
SHRA AND DYING TSRA. THESE WILL PULL ACROSS THE RIDGES TOWARDS
SUNRISE. BEHIND THE RAIN...SOME MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED
WITH FOG. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT INTO A VFR CU DECK BY MIDDAY. ANY
DAYTIME SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BE QUITE SPOTTY AND DID NOT INCLUDE IN
TAF AT THIS TIME. NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AFTER 00Z...WITH MORE
RAIN ARRIVING FROM WEST TO EAST. KEPT VFR FOR NOW BUT BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IS INDICATED AS PRECIP CHANCES DECLINE
THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...PRECIP...AND RESTRICTION CHANCES WILL
AGAIN INCREASE WITH AN ENCROACING FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




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