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000
FXUS66 KPDT 260528 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1028 PM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...STRONG WINDS CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY OF THE EVENING AS A
STRONG UPPER LOW MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS EVENING. A COLD
FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND INTO WALLOWA COUNTY.
WINDS CONTINUE AT 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 50 MPH IN
NUMEROUS PLACES THOUGH SOME QUIETER POCKETS REMAIN. CURRENT WIND
ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR WIND CHANGES TO BETTER
MATCH EXISTING CONDITIONS. WINDS HAVE DROPPED IN THE GRANDE RONDE
VALLEY, SO HAVE ALLOWED WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE THERE.
ADVISORIES FOR THE WALLOWA VALLEY AND CENTRAL OREGON CONTINUE
THROUGH 11 PM PDT AND AT THIS TIME, WINDS ARE DROPPING IN CENTRAL
OREGON WHILE WINDS REMAIN STRONG AT JOSEPH. MAY HAVE TO EXTEND THE
ADVISORY FOR THE WALLOWA VALLEY BUT WILL WAIT AND OBSERVE FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE DECIDING. RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA SO CURRENT CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS GOOD. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD AS WELL. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED FORECAST. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL KEEP LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AT TIMES
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON ALONG WITH GENERALLY BROKEN CEILINGS
ABOVE 4000 FEET AGL. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE AND RISE AFTER 00Z.
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY AS SURGES OF WIND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH PERIODS OF 25-35 KT SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KTS.
15-25 KTS WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS ARE EXPECTED AT OTHER TIMES.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE PERIODS OF LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH 14Z.
WINDS WILL BEGIN DECREASING AFTER 00Z TOMORROW AFTERNOON. PERRY

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 248 PM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO APPROACH WESTERN WASHINGTON AT THE MOMENT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST TO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA
TONIGHT, THEN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LOCALLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND EAST
CENTRAL OREGON, AS WELL AS THE SOUTH ENDS OF THE GRANDE RONDE AND
WALLOWA VALLEYS. WINDS HAVE BEEN WELL WITHIN THE 25 TO 35 MPH
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH IN CENTRAL OREGON AND AT THE
SOUTH END OF THE WALLOWA VALLEY. THE SOUTH END OF THE GRANDE RONDE
VALLEY HAS NOT DONE AS WELL, BUT MAY STILL PICK UP WITH THE APPROACH
THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT
ADVISORIES IN CENTRAL OREGON AND IN THE GRANDE RONDE AND WALLOWA
VALLEYS. STILL EXPECT A BURST OF STRONG WINDS WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN THIS EVENING. ALSO
GRADIENTS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO RESULT IN OFF AND ON STRONG WINDS. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE WIND
ADVISORIES IN THE LOWER BASIN AND FOOTHILLS. HAVE ALSO ADDED
ADVISORIES FOR NORTH-CENTRAL OREGON AND SIMCOE HIGHLANDS. WILL SEE
SHOWERS TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WILL MENTION
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM TO THE FOOTHILLS AND BLUE
MOUNTAINS IN UMATILLA, WALLA WALLA AND COLUMBIA COUNTIES DUE TO
POTENTIAL OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OF THE SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT.
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP VARYING CHANCE OF SHOWER GOING OVER THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE SHOWERS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY
NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN BETWEEN 4500 AND
5500 FEET MSL SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS SOME LIGHT, LOCALIZED
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOVE THESE LEVELS. 90

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GFS AND EC IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. A WET BUT MILD PATTERN WILL PREVAIL. A WARM FRONT WITH
ABUNDANT PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL HIT THE CASCADES LATE MONDAY AND
SPREAD INTO THE REST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL INCLUDE SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ANA. FOR
WEDNESDAY...THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL LIMIT RAIN TO MAINLY THE CASCADES
AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE MORE THAN 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST SPOTS ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT WITH THE
CLOUD COVER. A FEW MOUNTAIN VALLEY AREAS WILL SEE GUSTY WINDS ON
TUESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR 130 WEST OVER THE PACIFIC. OUT AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE EXPECT A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
ALONG THE CASCADES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE REST OF THE AREA AS A
WEAK WARM FRONTAL FEATURE MOVES THROUGH. HEADING INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS HANDLE THE APPROACHING TROUGH
DIFFERENTLY...THE ECMWF WOULD BRING PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA
AS THE TROUGH STAYS PROGRESSIVE...WHILE THE GFS DEVELOPS A CLOSED
500MB LOW AND SLOWS THE TROUGH DOWN...THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST THE
PRECIPITATION HOLDS OFF UNTIL AFTER AT LEAST 18Z SATURDAY. SINCE
THIS IS DAYS 5-7 DECIDED TO TAKE A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THESE DIFFERENCES. EITHER WAY AS THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO FALL...WITH
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATING 5350-5400M 1000-500MB THICKNESSES
ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY INTO NEXT SUNDAY. OVERALL
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. 77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  46  58  40  57 /  40  30  20  10
ALW  49  58  43  58 /  40  30  20  10
PSC  49  63  40  58 /  30  20  10  10
YKM  42  58  35  53 /  50  20  10  10
HRI  48  62  38  58 /  30  20  10  10
ELN  44  57  34  53 /  50  20  10  10
RDM  37  54  27  54 /  50  20  20  10
LGD  45  53  38  52 /  40  40  30  10
GCD  42  54  34  52 /  40  30  20  10
DLS  47  60  41  58 /  60  30  20  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT SUNDAY ORZ044-507-508.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING ORZ511.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PDT SUNDAY ORZ510.

WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT SUNDAY WAZ028-029.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PDT SUNDAY WAZ521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

83/79/77/83








000
FXUS66 KPDT 260346
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
846 PM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...STRONG WINDS CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY OF THE EVENING AS A
STRONG UPPER LOW MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS EVENING. A COLD
FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND INTO WALLOWA COUNTY.
WINDS CONTINUE AT 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 50 MPH IN
NUMEROUS PLACES THOUGH SOME QUIETER POCKETS REMAIN. CURRENT WIND
ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR WIND CHANGES TO BETTER
MATCH EXISTING CONDITIONS. WINDS HAVE DROPPED IN THE GRANDE RONDE
VALLEY, SO HAVE ALLOWED WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE THERE.
ADVISORIES FOR THE WALLOWA VALLEY AND CENTRAL OREGON CONTINUE
THROUGH 11 PM PDT AND AT THIS TIME, WINDS ARE DROPPING IN CENTRAL
OREGON WHILE WINDS REMAIN STRONG AT JOSEPH. MAY HAVE TO EXTEND THE
ADVISORY FOR THE WALLOWA VALLEY BUT WILL WAIT AND OBSERVE FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE DECIDING. RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA SO CURRENT CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS GOOD. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD AS WELL. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED FORECAST. PERRY

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 248 PM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO APPROACH WESTERN WASHINGTON AT THE MOMENT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST TO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA
TONIGHT, THEN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LOCALLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND EAST
CENTRAL OREGON, AS WELL AS THE SOUTH ENDS OF THE GRANDE RONDE AND
WALLOWA VALLEYS. WINDS HAVE BEEN WELL WITHIN THE 25 TO 35 MPH
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH IN CENTRAL OREGON AND AT THE
SOUTH END OF THE WALLOWA VALLEY. THE SOUTH END OF THE GRANDE RONDE
VALLEY HAS NOT DONE AS WELL, BUT MAY STILL PICK UP WITH THE APPROACH
THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT
ADVISORIES IN CENTRAL OREGON AND IN THE GRANDE RONDE AND WALLOWA
VALLEYS. STILL EXPECT A BURST OF STRONG WINDS WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN THIS EVENING. ALSO
GRADIENTS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO RESULT IN OFF AND ON STRONG WINDS. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE WIND
ADVISORIES IN THE LOWER BASIN AND FOOTHILLS. HAVE ALSO ADDED
ADVISORIES FOR NORTH-CENTRAL OREGON AND SIMCOE HIGHLANDS. WILL SEE
SHOWERS TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WILL MENTION
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM TO THE FOOTHILLS AND BLUE
MOUNTAINS IN UMATILLA, WALLA WALLA AND COLUMBIA COUNTIES DUE TO
POTENTIAL OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OF THE SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT.
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP VARYING CHANCE OF SHOWER GOING OVER THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE SHOWERS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY
NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN BETWEEN 4500 AND
5500 FEET MSL SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS SOME LIGHT, LOCALIZED
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOVE THESE LEVELS. 90

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GFS AND EC IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. A WET BUT MILD PATTERN WILL PREVAIL. A WARM FRONT WITH
ABUNDANT PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL HIT THE CASCADES LATE MONDAY AND
SPREAD INTO THE REST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL INCLUDE SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ANA. FOR
WEDNESDAY...THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL LIMIT RAIN TO MAINLY THE CASCADES
AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE MORE THAN 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST SPOTS ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT WITH THE
CLOUD COVER. A FEW MOUNTAIN VALLEY AREAS WILL SEE GUSTY WINDS ON
TUESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR 130 WEST OVER THE PACIFIC. OUT AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE EXPECT A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
ALONG THE CASCADES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE REST OF THE AREA AS A
WEAK WARM FRONTAL FEATURE MOVES THROUGH. HEADING INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS HANDLE THE APPROACHING TROUGH
DIFFERENTLY...THE ECMWF WOULD BRING PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA
AS THE TROUGH STAYS PROGRESSIVE...WHILE THE GFS DEVELOPS A CLOSED
500MB LOW AND SLOWS THE TROUGH DOWN...THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST THE
PRECIPITATION HOLDS OFF UNTIL AFTER AT LEAST 18Z SATURDAY. SINCE
THIS IS DAYS 5-7 DECIDED TO TAKE A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THESE DIFFERENCES. EITHER WAY AS THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO FALL...WITH
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATING 5350-5400M 1000-500MB THICKNESSES
ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY INTO NEXT SUNDAY. OVERALL
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. 77

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WINDS G35-45KT THROUGH
08Z.  STRONG SURFACE LOW WEST OF KAST WILL PROVIDE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 08Z.   LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK NE
INTO BC BY 08Z WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN WEAKENING.  A COLD FRONT
TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL PROVIDE THE LIFT FOR -SHRA.  TS POSSIBLE
VCTY KALW AND KPDT TIL 06Z...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAF DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  46  58  40  57 /  40  30  20  10
ALW  49  58  43  58 /  40  30  20  10
PSC  49  63  40  58 /  30  20  10  10
YKM  42  58  35  53 /  50  20  10  10
HRI  48  62  38  58 /  30  20  10  10
ELN  44  57  34  53 /  50  20  10  10
RDM  37  54  27  54 /  50  20  20  10
LGD  45  53  38  52 /  40  40  30  10
GCD  42  54  34  52 /  40  30  20  10
DLS  47  60  41  58 /  60  30  20  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT SUNDAY ORZ044-507-508.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING ORZ511.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PDT SUNDAY ORZ510.

WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT SUNDAY WAZ028-029.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PDT SUNDAY WAZ521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

83/79/77/79










000
FXUS66 KPDT 252247 CCA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
248 PM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014

CORRECTED WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES SECTION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO APPROACH WESTERN WASHINGTON AT THE MOMENT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST TO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA
TONIGHT, THEN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LOCALLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND EAST
CENTRAL OREGON, AS WELL AS THE SOUTH ENDS OF THE GRANDE RONDE AND
WALLOWA VALLEYS. WINDS HAVE BEEN WELL WITHIN THE 25 TO 35 MPH
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH IN CENTRAL OREGON AND AT THE
SOUTH END OF THE WALLOWA VALLEY. THE SOUTH END OF THE GRANDE RONDE
VALLEY HAS NOT DONE AS WELL, BUT MAY STILL PICK UP WITH THE APPROACH
THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT
ADVISORIES IN CENTRAL OREGON AND IN THE GRANDE RONDE AND WALLOWA
VALLEYS. STILL EXPECT A BURST OF STRONG WINDS WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN THIS EVENING. ALSO
GRADIENTS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO RESULT IN OFF AND ON STRONG WINDS. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE WIND
ADVISORIES IN THE LOWER BASIN AND FOOTHILLS. HAVE ALSO ADDED
ADVISORIES FOR NORTH-CENTRAL OREGON AND SIMCOE HIGHLANDS. WILL SEE
SHOWERS TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WILL MENTION
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM TO THE FOOTHILLS AND BLUE
MOUNTAINS IN UMATILLA, WALLA WALLA AND COLUMBIA COUNTIES DUE TO
POTENTIAL OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OF THE SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT.
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP VARYING CHANCE OF SHOWER GOING OVER THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE SHOWERS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY
NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN BETWEEN 4500 AND
5500 FEET MSL SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS SOME LIGHT, LOCALIZED
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOVE THESE LEVELS. 90

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GFS AND EC IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. A WET BUT MILD PATTERN WILL PREVAIL. A WARM FRONT WITH
ABUNDANT PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL HIT THE CASCADES LATE MONDAY AND
SPREAD INTO THE REST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL INCLUDE SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ANA. FOR
WEDNESDAY...THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL LIMIT RAIN TO MAINLY THE CASCADES
AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE MORE THAN 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST SPOTS ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT WITH THE
CLOUD COVER. A FEW MOUNTAIN VALLEY AREAS WILL SEE GUSTY WINDS ON
TUESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR 130 WEST OVER THE PACIFIC. OUT AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE EXPECT A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
ALONG THE CASCADES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE REST OF THE AREA AS A
WEAK WARM FRONTAL FEATURE MOVES THROUGH. HEADING INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS HANDLE THE APPROACHING TROUGH
DIFFERENTLY...THE ECMWF WOULD BRING PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA
AS THE TROUGH STAYS PROGRESSIVE...WHILE THE GFS DEVELOPS A CLOSED
500MB LOW AND SLOWS THE TROUGH DOWN...THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST THE
PRECIPITATION HOLDS OFF UNTIL AFTER AT LEAST 18Z SATURDAY. SINCE
THIS IS DAYS 5-7 DECIDED TO TAKE A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THESE DIFFERENCES. EITHER WAY AS THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO FALL...WITH
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATING 5350-5400M 1000-500MB THICKNESSES
ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY INTO NEXT SUNDAY. OVERALL
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. 77

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WINDS G35-45KT THROUGH
08Z.  STRONG SURFACE LOW WEST OF KAST WILL PROVIDE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 08Z.   LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK NE
INTO BC BY 08Z WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN WEAKENING.  A COLD FRONT
TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL PROVIDE THE LIFT FOR -SHRA.  TS POSSIBLE
VCTY KALW AND KPDT TIL 06Z...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAF DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  46  58  40  57 /  40  30  20  10
ALW  49  58  43  58 /  40  30  20  10
PSC  49  63  40  58 /  30  20  10  10
YKM  42  58  35  53 /  50  20  10  10
HRI  48  62  38  58 /  30  20  10  10
ELN  44  57  34  53 /  50  20  10  10
RDM  37  54  27  54 /  50  20  20  10
LGD  45  53  38  52 /  40  40  30  10
GCD  42  54  34  52 /  40  30  20  10
DLS  47  60  41  58 /  60  30  20  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT SUNDAY ORZ044-507-508.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING ORZ511.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PDT SUNDAY ORZ510.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR LADD AND PYLES
     CANYONS IN THE ORZ049.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR THE SOUTH END
     OF THE WALLOWA VALLEY.

WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT SUNDAY WAZ028-029.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PDT SUNDAY WAZ521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/79/77/79









000
FXUS66 KPDT 252148
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
248 PM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO APPROACH WESTERN WASHINGTON AT THE MOMENT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST TO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA
TONIGHT, THEN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LOCALLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND EAST
CENTRAL OREGON, AS WELL AS THE SOUTH ENDS OF THE GRANDE RONDE AND
WALLOWA VALLEYS. WINDS HAVE BEEN WELL WITHIN THE 25 TO 35 MPH
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH IN CENTRAL OREGON AND AT THE
SOUTH END OF THE WALLOWA VALLEY. THE SOUTH END OF THE GRANDE RONDE
VALLEY HAS NOT DONE AS WELL, BUT MAY STILL PICK UP WITH THE APPROACH
THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT
ADVISORIES IN CENTRAL OREGON AND IN THE GRANDE RONDE AND WALLOWA
VALLEYS. STILL EXPECT A BURST OF STRONG WINDS WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN THIS EVENING. ALSO
GRADIENTS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO RESULT IN OFF AND ON STRONG WINDS. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE WIND
ADVISORIES IN THE LOWER BASIN AND FOOTHILLS. HAVE ALSO ADDED
ADVISORIES FOR NORTH-CENTRAL OREGON AND SIMCOE HIGHLANDS. WILL SEE
SHOWERS TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WILL MENTION
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM TO THE FOOTHILLS AND BLUE
MOUNTAINS IN UMATILLA, WALLA WALLA AND COLUMBIA COUNTIES DUE TO
POTENTIAL OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OF THE SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT.
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP VARYING CHANCE OF SHOWER GOING OVER THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE SHOWERS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY
NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN BETWEEN 4500 AND
5500 FEET MSL SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS SOME LIGHT, LOCALIZED
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOVE THESE LEVELS. 90

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GFS AND EC IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. A WET BUT MILD PATTERN WILL PREVAIL. A WARM FRONT WITH
ABUNDANT PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL HIT THE CASCADES LATE MONDAY AND
SPREAD INTO THE REST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL INCLUDE SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ANA. FOR
WEDNESDAY...THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL LIMIT RAIN TO MAINLY THE CASCADES
AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE MORE THAN 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST SPOTS ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT WITH THE
CLOUD COVER. A FEW MOUNTAIN VALLEY AREAS WILL SEE GUSTY WINDS ON
TUESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR 130 WEST OVER THE PACIFIC. OUT AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE EXPECT A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
ALONG THE CASCADES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE REST OF THE AREA AS A
WEAK WARM FRONTAL FEATURE MOVES THROUGH. HEADING INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS HANDLE THE APPROACHING TROUGH
DIFFERENTLY...THE ECMWF WOULD BRING PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA
AS THE TROUGH STAYS PROGRESSIVE...WHILE THE GFS DEVELOPS A CLOSED
500MB LOW AND SLOWS THE TROUGH DOWN...THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST THE
PRECIPITATION HOLDS OFF UNTIL AFTER AT LEAST 18Z SATURDAY. SINCE
THIS IS DAYS 5-7 DECIDED TO TAKE A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THESE DIFFERENCES. EITHER WAY AS THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO FALL...WITH
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATING 5350-5400M 1000-500MB THICKNESSES
ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY INTO NEXT SUNDAY. OVERALL
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. 77

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WINDS G35-45KT THROUGH
08Z.  STRONG SURFACE LOW WEST OF KAST WILL PROVIDE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 08Z.   LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK NE
INTO BC BY 08Z WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN WEAKENING.  A COLD FRONT
TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL PROVIDE THE LIFT FOR -SHRA.  TS POSSIBLE
VCTY KALW AND KPDT TIL 06Z...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAF DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  46  58  40  57 /  40  30  20  10
ALW  49  58  43  58 /  40  30  20  10
PSC  49  63  40  58 /  30  20  10  10
YKM  42  58  35  53 /  50  20  10  10
HRI  48  62  38  58 /  30  20  10  10
ELN  44  57  34  53 /  50  20  10  10
RDM  37  54  27  54 /  50  20  20  10
LGD  45  53  38  52 /  40  40  30  10
GCD  42  54  34  52 /  40  30  20  10
DLS  47  60  41  58 /  60  30  20  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR... WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT SUNDAY ORZ044-507-508.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING ORZ511.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PDT SUNDAY ORZ510.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR LADD AND PYLES
     CANYONS IN THE ORZ049.

WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT SUNDAY WAZ028-029.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PDT SUNDAY WAZ521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/79/77/79










000
FXUS66 KPDT 251754 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1050 AM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014

UPDATED AVIATION

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW, CURRENTLY OFF
THE OREGON COAST, WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA BY
MIDNIGHT, AND WORK INTO ALBERTA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WIND. LOCALLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER
CENTRAL OREGON AND THE SOUTHERN GRANDE RONDE VALLEY WILL ALLOW
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TODAY INTO EARLY EVENING. THUS WILL
CONTINUE THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORIES IN THESE TWO LOCATIONS. STRONG
WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER RIDGES ABOVE 5500 FEET THROUGH
TODAY AS WELL. LOCAL WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN SOUTH-NORTH ALIGNED PORTIONS OF THE JOHN DAY BASIN. FOG
ALONG THE BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF THIS
MORNING, WITH BREEZY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE LATER
TODAY. THESE WINDS SHOULD CAUSE A DRAMATIC WARM UP ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS. THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. IT`S PASSAGE WILL HELP TO END THE STRONGER WINDS IN CENTRAL
OREGON AND IN THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME, WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN. INITIALLY SOME LOCATIONS WILL
SEE STRONG WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, OTHERWISE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME PERSISTENT IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE OVERNIGHT DUE
TO TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT
WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND THE LOWER BASIN. WILL MOST
LIKELY ADD ADVISORIES FOR NORTH-CENTRAL OREGON AND THE SIMCOE
HIGHLANDS FOR THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS SYSTEM. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL OVERNIGHT, THUS LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS FROM SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IT WILL BE WET WITH NEAR TO ABOVE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A PROGRESSIVE FLOW
PATTERN WILL KEEP PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. THE GFS IS
ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER PUSHING THE TROUGH INLAND COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF, BUT THE DIFFERENCES DO NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE
FORECAST. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED,
AND ONLY THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE CASCADES, WALLOWAS, AND THE
STRAWBERRY WILDERNESS WILL SEE SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...IFR/LIFR TO CONTINUE AT KALW AND KPDT UNTIL
LOW LEVEL GRADIENT INCREASES AND SOUTH WINDS KICK IN 21Z-23Z...THEN
QUICKLY BECOMING VFR AS ARE OTHER TAF SITES CURRENTLY. ALTHOUGH 17Z
KPSC METAR SHOWS VFR CONDITIONS...KEPT TEMPO FOR IFR TIL 19Z AS
WEBCAMS IN AREA SHOW LOWER VSBY AND CLOUDS HANGING AROUND. NEXT
CHALLENGE IS WIND WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF AND TIGHTENING
SURFACE GRADIENT.  WIND G25-35KT WILL OCCUR AT ALL TAF SITES
ESPECIALLY 00Z-12Z. T.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  68  45  60  40 /  20  30  20  20
ALW  67  48  59  43 /  20  40  30  20
PSC  63  48  65  40 /  20  30  20  10
YKM  56  42  59  36 /  30  50  20  10
HRI  65  46  64  38 /  20  30  20  10
ELN  56  41  58  35 /  40  50  20  10
RDM  63  37  56  28 /  20  40  20  20
LGD  66  44  55  36 /  20  40  40  30
GCD  64  42  55  34 /  20  40  30  20
DLS  60  46  60  42 /  50  60  30  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM PDT SUNDAY
     ORZ044-507-508.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING ORZ511.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR LADD AND PYLES
     CANYONS IN THE ORZ049.

WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM PDT SUNDAY
     WAZ028-029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/85/79








000
FXUS66 KPDT 251754 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1050 AM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014

UPDATED AVIATION

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW, CURRENTLY OFF
THE OREGON COAST, WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA BY
MIDNIGHT, AND WORK INTO ALBERTA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WIND. LOCALLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER
CENTRAL OREGON AND THE SOUTHERN GRANDE RONDE VALLEY WILL ALLOW
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TODAY INTO EARLY EVENING. THUS WILL
CONTINUE THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORIES IN THESE TWO LOCATIONS. STRONG
WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER RIDGES ABOVE 5500 FEET THROUGH
TODAY AS WELL. LOCAL WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN SOUTH-NORTH ALIGNED PORTIONS OF THE JOHN DAY BASIN. FOG
ALONG THE BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF THIS
MORNING, WITH BREEZY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE LATER
TODAY. THESE WINDS SHOULD CAUSE A DRAMATIC WARM UP ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS. THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. IT`S PASSAGE WILL HELP TO END THE STRONGER WINDS IN CENTRAL
OREGON AND IN THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME, WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN. INITIALLY SOME LOCATIONS WILL
SEE STRONG WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, OTHERWISE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME PERSISTENT IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE OVERNIGHT DUE
TO TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT
WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND THE LOWER BASIN. WILL MOST
LIKELY ADD ADVISORIES FOR NORTH-CENTRAL OREGON AND THE SIMCOE
HIGHLANDS FOR THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS SYSTEM. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL OVERNIGHT, THUS LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS FROM SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IT WILL BE WET WITH NEAR TO ABOVE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A PROGRESSIVE FLOW
PATTERN WILL KEEP PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. THE GFS IS
ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER PUSHING THE TROUGH INLAND COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF, BUT THE DIFFERENCES DO NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE
FORECAST. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED,
AND ONLY THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE CASCADES, WALLOWAS, AND THE
STRAWBERRY WILDERNESS WILL SEE SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...IFR/LIFR TO CONTINUE AT KALW AND KPDT UNTIL
LOW LEVEL GRADIENT INCREASES AND SOUTH WINDS KICK IN 21Z-23Z...THEN
QUICKLY BECOMING VFR AS ARE OTHER TAF SITES CURRENTLY. ALTHOUGH 17Z
KPSC METAR SHOWS VFR CONDITIONS...KEPT TEMPO FOR IFR TIL 19Z AS
WEBCAMS IN AREA SHOW LOWER VSBY AND CLOUDS HANGING AROUND. NEXT
CHALLENGE IS WIND WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF AND TIGHTENING
SURFACE GRADIENT.  WIND G25-35KT WILL OCCUR AT ALL TAF SITES
ESPECIALLY 00Z-12Z. T.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  68  45  60  40 /  20  30  20  20
ALW  67  48  59  43 /  20  40  30  20
PSC  63  48  65  40 /  20  30  20  10
YKM  56  42  59  36 /  30  50  20  10
HRI  65  46  64  38 /  20  30  20  10
ELN  56  41  58  35 /  40  50  20  10
RDM  63  37  56  28 /  20  40  20  20
LGD  66  44  55  36 /  20  40  40  30
GCD  64  42  55  34 /  20  40  30  20
DLS  60  46  60  42 /  50  60  30  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM PDT SUNDAY
     ORZ044-507-508.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING ORZ511.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR LADD AND PYLES
     CANYONS IN THE ORZ049.

WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM PDT SUNDAY
     WAZ028-029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/85/79








000
FXUS66 KPDT 251641
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
939 AM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW, CURRENTLY OFF
THE OREGON COAST, WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA BY
MIDNIGHT, AND WORK INTO ALBERTA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WIND. LOCALLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER
CENTRAL OREGON AND THE SOUTHERN GRANDE RONDE VALLEY WILL ALLOW
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TODAY INTO EARLY EVENING. THUS WILL
CONTINUE THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORIES IN THESE TWO LOCATIONS. STRONG
WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER RIDGES ABOVE 5500 FEET THROUGH
TODAY AS WELL. LOCAL WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN SOUTH-NORTH ALIGNED PORTIONS OF THE JOHN DAY BASIN. FOG
ALONG THE BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF THIS
MORNING, WITH BREEZY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE LATER
TODAY. THESE WINDS SHOULD CAUSE A DRAMATIC WARM UP ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS. THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. IT`S PASSAGE WILL HELP TO END THE STRONGER WINDS IN CENTRAL
OREGON AND IN THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME, WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN. INITIALLY SOME LOCATIONS WILL
SEE STRONG WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, OTHERWISE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME PERSISTENT IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE OVERNIGHT DUE
TO TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT
WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND THE LOWER BASIN. WILL MOST
LIKELY ADD ADVISORIES FOR NORTH-CENTRAL OREGON AND THE SIMCOE
HIGHLANDS FOR THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS SYSTEM. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL OVERNIGHT, THUS LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS FROM SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IT WILL BE WET WITH NEAR TO ABOVE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A PROGRESSIVE FLOW
PATTERN WILL KEEP PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. THE GFS IS
ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER PUSHING THE TROUGH INLAND COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF, BUT THE DIFFERENCES DO NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE
FORECAST. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED,
AND ONLY THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE CASCADES, WALLOWAS, AND THE
STRAWBERRY WILDERNESS WILL SEE SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...12Z TAFS...IT HAS BEEN ANOTHER
CHALLENGING FORECAST AS CONDITIONS ARE FLUCTUATING AT SEVERAL
TERMINAL AIRPORTS, NAMELY KBDN, KRDM, AND KPDT. KRDM AND KBDN SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE LATER THIS
MORNING. KPDT AND KALW WILL LIKELY NOT SEE VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
AROUND 16Z-18Z WHEN WINDS ALOFT INCREASE AND PROVIDE MIXING. STRATUS
CLOUDS BETWEEN 2500-3500 FEET HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT OR IN THE
VICINITY OF KDLS, KYKM, AND KPSC. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AND RAIN WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AS WELL, SUSTAINED
AT 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 25-35 KNOTS THAT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  68  45  60  40 /  20  30  20  20
ALW  67  48  59  43 /  20  40  30  20
PSC  63  48  65  40 /  20  30  20  10
YKM  56  42  59  36 /  30  50  20  10
HRI  65  46  64  38 /  20  30  20  10
ELN  56  41  58  35 /  40  50  20  10
RDM  63  37  56  28 /  20  40  20  20
LGD  66  44  55  36 /  20  40  40  30
GCD  64  42  55  34 /  20  40  30  20
DLS  60  46  60  42 /  50  60  30  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM PDT SUNDAY
     ORZ044-507-508.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING ORZ511.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR LADD AND PYLES
     CANYONS IN THE ORZ049.

WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM PDT SUNDAY
     WAZ028-029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/85/79









000
FXUS66 KPDT 251641
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
939 AM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW, CURRENTLY OFF
THE OREGON COAST, WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA BY
MIDNIGHT, AND WORK INTO ALBERTA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WIND. LOCALLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER
CENTRAL OREGON AND THE SOUTHERN GRANDE RONDE VALLEY WILL ALLOW
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TODAY INTO EARLY EVENING. THUS WILL
CONTINUE THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORIES IN THESE TWO LOCATIONS. STRONG
WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER RIDGES ABOVE 5500 FEET THROUGH
TODAY AS WELL. LOCAL WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN SOUTH-NORTH ALIGNED PORTIONS OF THE JOHN DAY BASIN. FOG
ALONG THE BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF THIS
MORNING, WITH BREEZY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE LATER
TODAY. THESE WINDS SHOULD CAUSE A DRAMATIC WARM UP ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS. THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. IT`S PASSAGE WILL HELP TO END THE STRONGER WINDS IN CENTRAL
OREGON AND IN THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME, WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN. INITIALLY SOME LOCATIONS WILL
SEE STRONG WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, OTHERWISE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME PERSISTENT IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE OVERNIGHT DUE
TO TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT
WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND THE LOWER BASIN. WILL MOST
LIKELY ADD ADVISORIES FOR NORTH-CENTRAL OREGON AND THE SIMCOE
HIGHLANDS FOR THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS SYSTEM. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL OVERNIGHT, THUS LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS FROM SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IT WILL BE WET WITH NEAR TO ABOVE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A PROGRESSIVE FLOW
PATTERN WILL KEEP PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. THE GFS IS
ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER PUSHING THE TROUGH INLAND COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF, BUT THE DIFFERENCES DO NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE
FORECAST. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED,
AND ONLY THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE CASCADES, WALLOWAS, AND THE
STRAWBERRY WILDERNESS WILL SEE SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...12Z TAFS...IT HAS BEEN ANOTHER
CHALLENGING FORECAST AS CONDITIONS ARE FLUCTUATING AT SEVERAL
TERMINAL AIRPORTS, NAMELY KBDN, KRDM, AND KPDT. KRDM AND KBDN SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE LATER THIS
MORNING. KPDT AND KALW WILL LIKELY NOT SEE VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
AROUND 16Z-18Z WHEN WINDS ALOFT INCREASE AND PROVIDE MIXING. STRATUS
CLOUDS BETWEEN 2500-3500 FEET HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT OR IN THE
VICINITY OF KDLS, KYKM, AND KPSC. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AND RAIN WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AS WELL, SUSTAINED
AT 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 25-35 KNOTS THAT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  68  45  60  40 /  20  30  20  20
ALW  67  48  59  43 /  20  40  30  20
PSC  63  48  65  40 /  20  30  20  10
YKM  56  42  59  36 /  30  50  20  10
HRI  65  46  64  38 /  20  30  20  10
ELN  56  41  58  35 /  40  50  20  10
RDM  63  37  56  28 /  20  40  20  20
LGD  66  44  55  36 /  20  40  40  30
GCD  64  42  55  34 /  20  40  30  20
DLS  60  46  60  42 /  50  60  30  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM PDT SUNDAY
     ORZ044-507-508.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING ORZ511.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR LADD AND PYLES
     CANYONS IN THE ORZ049.

WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM PDT SUNDAY
     WAZ028-029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/85/79









000
FXUS66 KPDT 251127 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
425 AM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORMING ALONG THE OREGON AND CALIFORNIA COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTHEAST AND MOVE INLAND LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT ALONG THE
OREGON OR WASHINGTON COAST. IT WILL HAVE VERY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WHICH WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION AND THE
CWA. THE STRONGEST GRADIENTS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 00Z AND
06Z THIS EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER THAT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY. AT
THIS TIME WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
CENTRAL OREGON AS WELL AS THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE BLUE
MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. MAY NEED TO ADD NORTH CENTRAL OREGON INTO THE
ADVISORY AREA TOO. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND
4500-5000 FEET BY SUNDAY RESULTING IN POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN. THERE WILL BE RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS INCREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INLAND.
SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY DEPARTS. 88

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. IT WILL BE WET WITH NEAR
TO ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A
PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WILL KEEP PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.  ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH OFFSHORE ON
FRIDAY.  THE GFS IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER PUSHING THE TROUGH INLAND
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF...BUT THE DIFFERENCES DO NOT HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE FORECAST.  SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED...AND ONLY THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE
CASCADES, WALLOWAS, AND THE STRAWBERRY WILDERNESS WILL SEE SNOW. WISTER

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS.  IT HAS BEEN ANOTHER CHALLENGING FORECAST AS
CONDITIONS ARE FLUCTUATING AT SEVERAL TERMINAL AIRPORTS...NAMELY
KBDN, KRDM, AND KPDT.  KRDM AND KBDN SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER
SUNRISE AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING.  KPDT AND KALW
WILL LIKELY NOT SEE VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL AROUND 16Z-18Z WHEN WINDS
ALOFT INCREASE AND PROVIDE MIXING.  STRATUS CLOUDS BETWEEN 2500-3500
FEET HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT OR IN THE VICINITY OF KDLS, KYKM, AND
KPSC.  MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND RAIN WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE AS WELL...SUSTAINED AT 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 25-35
KNOTS THAT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.  WISTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  66  45  60  40 /  20  30  20  20
ALW  66  48  59  43 /  20  40  30  20
PSC  63  48  65  40 /  20  30  20  10
YKM  56  42  59  36 /  30  50  20  10
HRI  64  46  64  38 /  20  30  20  10
ELN  58  41  58  35 /  40  50  20  10
RDM  63  37  56  28 /  20  40  20  20
LGD  66  44  55  36 /  20  40  40  30
GCD  64  42  55  34 /  20  40  30  20
DLS  60  46  60  42 /  50  60  30  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM PDT SUNDAY
     ORZ044-507-508.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     ORZ511.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LADD AND PYLES CANYONS IN THE ORZ049.

WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM PDT SUNDAY
     WAZ028-029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/85/85








000
FXUS66 KPDT 251127 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
425 AM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORMING ALONG THE OREGON AND CALIFORNIA COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTHEAST AND MOVE INLAND LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT ALONG THE
OREGON OR WASHINGTON COAST. IT WILL HAVE VERY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WHICH WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION AND THE
CWA. THE STRONGEST GRADIENTS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 00Z AND
06Z THIS EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER THAT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY. AT
THIS TIME WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
CENTRAL OREGON AS WELL AS THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE BLUE
MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. MAY NEED TO ADD NORTH CENTRAL OREGON INTO THE
ADVISORY AREA TOO. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND
4500-5000 FEET BY SUNDAY RESULTING IN POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN. THERE WILL BE RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS INCREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INLAND.
SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY DEPARTS. 88

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. IT WILL BE WET WITH NEAR
TO ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A
PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WILL KEEP PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.  ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH OFFSHORE ON
FRIDAY.  THE GFS IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER PUSHING THE TROUGH INLAND
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF...BUT THE DIFFERENCES DO NOT HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE FORECAST.  SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED...AND ONLY THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE
CASCADES, WALLOWAS, AND THE STRAWBERRY WILDERNESS WILL SEE SNOW. WISTER

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS.  IT HAS BEEN ANOTHER CHALLENGING FORECAST AS
CONDITIONS ARE FLUCTUATING AT SEVERAL TERMINAL AIRPORTS...NAMELY
KBDN, KRDM, AND KPDT.  KRDM AND KBDN SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER
SUNRISE AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING.  KPDT AND KALW
WILL LIKELY NOT SEE VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL AROUND 16Z-18Z WHEN WINDS
ALOFT INCREASE AND PROVIDE MIXING.  STRATUS CLOUDS BETWEEN 2500-3500
FEET HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT OR IN THE VICINITY OF KDLS, KYKM, AND
KPSC.  MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND RAIN WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE AS WELL...SUSTAINED AT 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 25-35
KNOTS THAT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.  WISTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  66  45  60  40 /  20  30  20  20
ALW  66  48  59  43 /  20  40  30  20
PSC  63  48  65  40 /  20  30  20  10
YKM  56  42  59  36 /  30  50  20  10
HRI  64  46  64  38 /  20  30  20  10
ELN  58  41  58  35 /  40  50  20  10
RDM  63  37  56  28 /  20  40  20  20
LGD  66  44  55  36 /  20  40  40  30
GCD  64  42  55  34 /  20  40  30  20
DLS  60  46  60  42 /  50  60  30  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM PDT SUNDAY
     ORZ044-507-508.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     ORZ511.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LADD AND PYLES CANYONS IN THE ORZ049.

WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM PDT SUNDAY
     WAZ028-029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/85/85








000
FXUS66 KPDT 250924
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
224 AM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORMING ALONG THE OREGON AND CALIFORNIA COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTHEAST AND MOVE INLAND LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT ALONG THE
OREGON OR WASHINGTON COAST. IT WILL HAVE VERY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WHICH WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION AND THE
CWA. THE STRONGEST GRADIENTS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 00Z AND
06Z THIS EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER THAT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY. AT
THIS TIME WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
CENTRAL OREGON AS WELL AS THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE BLUE
MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. MAY NEED TO ADD NORTH CENTRAL OREGON INTO THE
ADVISORY AREA TOO. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND
4500-5000 FEET BY SUNDAY RESULTING IN POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN. THERE WILL BE RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS INCREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INLAND.
SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY DEPARTS. 88

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. IT WILL BE WET WITH NEAR
TO ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A
PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WILL KEEP PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.  ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH OFFSHORE ON
FRIDAY.  THE GFS IS ABOUT 6 HOUR FASTER PUSHING THE TROUGH INLAND
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF...BUT THE DIFFERENCES DO NOT HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE FORECAST.  SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED...AND ONLY THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE
CASCADES, WALLOWAS, AND THE STRAWBERRY WILDERNESS WILL SEE SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS.  CONDITIONS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY IN ALL TAF
SITES. KPDT AND KALW ARE CURRENTLY UNDER DENSE FOG WITH VLIFR
CONDITIONS.  IT HAS IMPROVED AT KRDM AND KBDN...BUT THERE REMAINS A
STRATUS DECK BELOW 1000 FEET AGL AT THESE TERMINAL AIRPORTS.  LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT THE OTHER TAF SITES THIS
MORNING WITH MVFR OR CIGS AROUND 3500 FEET. TOMORROW CEILINGS WILL
INCREASE AND LOWER AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. CEILINGS
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN VFR BUT RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 18Z
AND THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
TONIGHT BUT WILL BEGIN INCREASING AFTER 15Z. WINDS WILL REACH 15 TO
30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS AFTER 21Z AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KDLS
AND KYKM WHICH WILL BE MORE SHELTERED FROM THE SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS. PERRY/WISTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  66  45  60  40 /  20  30  20  20
ALW  66  48  59  43 /  20  40  30  20
PSC  63  48  65  40 /  20  30  20  10
YKM  56  42  59  36 /  30  50  20  10
HRI  64  46  64  38 /  20  30  20  10
ELN  58  41  58  35 /  40  50  20  10
RDM  63  37  56  28 /  20  40  20  20
LGD  66  44  55  36 /  20  40  40  30
GCD  64  42  55  34 /  20  40  30  20
DLS  60  46  60  42 /  50  60  30  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM PDT SUNDAY
     ORZ044-507-508.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     ORZ511.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LADD AND PYLES CANYONS IN THE ORZ049.

WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM PDT SUNDAY
     WAZ028-029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/85/85










000
FXUS66 KPDT 250542 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1042 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...A RAPIDLY CHANGING EVENING OF WEATHER IS UNDERWAY. A WARM
FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH AND WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. RAIN CONTINUES ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES AND THE YAKIMA AND KITTITAS VALLEYS WHILE THE
REST OF THE AREA HAS SEEN RAIN END. TO THE SOUTH, SKIES CLEARED OUT
RAPIDLY AND TEMPERATURES TUMBLED. FOG HAS FORMED IN PLACES, MAINLY
AROUND BEND, REDMOND, MADRAS AND CONDON. BEND AND REDMOND HAVE BEEN
DOWN TO ONE QUARTER MILE VISIBILITY AT TIMES, BUT ANTICIPATE
IMPROVEMENT AS THE WIND SHIFTS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTH AND HIGHER
CLOUDS MOVE IN. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR THOSE AREAS FOR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED A COUPLE OF TEMPERATURES THAT WERE
NEAR THE FORECAST LOW FOR THE NIGHT. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED ONCE TO
CLEAR RAIN FROM PLACES WHERE THE FRONTAL PRECIP BAND HAD PASSED.
WILL LIKELY DO SO AGAIN IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...TAFS WERE CHALLENGING TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
EXITED THE AREA, SKIES CLEARED ASIDE FROM BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS AND FOG
DEVELOPED AT KRDM, KBDN AND KALW. GUIDANCE HINTS THAT THE CURRENT
LIFR VSBY WILL IMPROVE AT KBDN AND KRDM AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
AND INCREASE THE DEW POINT SPREAD. HAVE WRITTEN THE TAFS TO IMPROVE
THERE BY 12Z. KALW HAS DROPPED TO ONE QUARTER MILE VSBY AS WELL AND
EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE WITH ONLY MODEST IMPROVEMENT THROUGH 16Z.
KPDT AND KPSC ARE SHOWING SOME DECLINES AND EXPECT THEM TO DROP TO
AT LEAST MVFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TOMORROW CEILINGS WILL INCREASE
AND LOWER AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. CEILINGS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN VFR BUT RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 18Z AND
THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
TONIGHT BUT WILL BEGIN INCREASING AFTER 15Z. WINDS WILL REACH 15 TO
30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS AFTER 21Z AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KDLS
AND KYKM WHICH WILL BE MORE SHELTERED FROM THE SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS. PERRY

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 402 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEVELOPING PACIFIC STORM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH
THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO END ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON WHILE IT SPREADS NORTH INTO OUR
WASHINGTON ZONES. BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY PRECIP WILL BE VERY LIMITED.
THE PACIFIC STORM WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, THEN MOVE INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA SATURDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS TIME THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WINDS. STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTH END OF THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY,
ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON, AND PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN. GRADIENTS
WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GRANDE RONDE VALLEY AND
DURING SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS IN
THE 20 TO 35 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH. THUS HAVE ISSUED
WIND ADVISORIES FOR THESE AREAS. WINDS WILL GUST ALONG THE BLUE
MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY
EVENING. ALSO WINDS WILL BECOME PERSISTENT IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE
WITH GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE
FOOTHILLS AND LOWER BASIN. THUS HAVE ALSO ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THESE AREAS AS WELL. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING MORE PRECIP TO THE
AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, RUNNING BETWEEN
4500 AND 5000 FT BY SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING
SUNDAY DUE TO A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. THUS SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE SHOWERS
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT. 90

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OTHER THAN ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS...A DRY FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR MONDAY AS A WEAK TRANSITORY
RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN CONSIDERABLY ON
TUESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ANA BECOME ENTRAINED IN A
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT...MODERATE RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...AND THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ON WEDNESDAY. SNOW LEVELS DURING THIS TIME WILL
RANGE FROM 6000-8000 FEET AND WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO REBUILD ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT ONCE AGAIN...THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE DIVERGING BY
DAY 7. THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND EAST COMPARED TO THE ECMWF WITH
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. DESPITE THE
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ADVERTISING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THEY ALSO AGREE ON A CHANCE OF RAIN
THURSDAY...BUT WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES THE RAIN INTO FRIDAY...THE
ECMWF QUICKLY PULLS THE PACIFIC LOW NORTHEASTWARD AND DRIES OUT THE
LOCAL AREA.  COBB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  44  66  45  58 /  10  20  30  20
ALW  47  66  48  57 /  40  20  40  30
PSC  45  63  48  63 /  60  20  30  20
YKM  42  56  42  57 /  80  30  50  20
HRI  42  64  46  62 /  20  20  30  20
ELN  41  58  41  56 /  80  40  50  20
RDM  39  63  37  54 /  10  20  40  20
LGD  43  66  44  53 /  10  20  40  40
GCD  42  64  42  53 /  10  20  40  30
DLS  45  60  46  58 /  60  50  60  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 3 PM PDT SUNDAY
     ORZ044-507-508.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY ORZ511.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR LADD AND PYLES
     CANYONS IN THE ORZ049.

WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 3 PM PDT SUNDAY WAZ028-029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

83/82/83








000
FXUS66 KPDT 250325
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
825 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...A RAPIDLY CHANGING EVENING OF WEATHER IS UNDERWAY. A WARM
FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH AND WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. RAIN CONTINUES ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES AND THE YAKIMA AND KITTITAS VALLEYS WHILE THE
REST OF THE AREA HAS SEEN RAIN END. TO THE SOUTH, SKIES CLEARED OUT
RAPIDLY AND TEMPERATURES TUMBLED. FOG HAS FORMED IN PLACES, MAINLY
AROUND BEND, REDMOND, MADRAS AND CONDON. BEND AND REDMOND HAVE BEEN
DOWN TO ONE QUARTER MILE VISIBILITY AT TIMES, BUT ANTICIPATE
IMPROVEMENT AS THE WIND SHIFTS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTH AND HIGHER
CLOUDS MOVE IN. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR THOSE AREAS FOR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED A COUPLE OF TEMPERATURES THAT WERE
NEAR THE FORECAST LOW FOR THE NIGHT. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED ONCE TO
CLEAR RAIN FROM PLACES WHERE THE FRONTAL PRECIP BAND HAD PASSED.
WILL LIKELY DO SO AGAIN IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. PERRY

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 402 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEVELOPING PACIFIC STORM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH
THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO END ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON WHILE IT SPREADS NORTH INTO OUR
WASHINGTON ZONES. BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY PRECIP WILL BE VERY LIMITED.
THE PACIFIC STORM WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, THEN MOVE INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA SATURDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS TIME THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WINDS. STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTH END OF THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY,
ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON, AND PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN. GRADIENTS
WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GRANDE RONDE VALLEY AND
DURING SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS IN
THE 20 TO 35 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH. THUS HAVE ISSUED
WIND ADVISORIES FOR THESE AREAS. WINDS WILL GUST ALONG THE BLUE
MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY
EVENING. ALSO WINDS WILL BECOME PERSISTENT IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE
WITH GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE
FOOTHILLS AND LOWER BASIN. THUS HAVE ALSO ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THESE AREAS AS WELL. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING MORE PRECIP TO THE
AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, RUNNING BETWEEN
4500 AND 5000 FT BY SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING
SUNDAY DUE TO A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. THUS SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE SHOWERS
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT. 90

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OTHER THAN ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS...A DRY FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR MONDAY AS A WEAK TRANSITORY
RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN CONSIDERABLY ON
TUESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ANA BECOME ENTRAINED IN A
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT...MODERATE RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...AND THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ON WEDNESDAY. SNOW LEVELS DURING THIS TIME WILL
RANGE FROM 6000-8000 FEET AND WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO REBUILD ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT ONCE AGAIN...THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE DIVERGING BY
DAY 7. THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND EAST COMPARED TO THE ECMWF WITH
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. DESPITE THE
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ADVERTISING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THEY ALSO AGREE ON A CHANCE OF RAIN
THURSDAY...BUT WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES THE RAIN INTO FRIDAY...THE
ECMWF QUICKLY PULLS THE PACIFIC LOW NORTHEASTWARD AND DRIES OUT THE
LOCAL AREA.  COBB

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...FORECASTING CIGS AND VSBYS REMAINS A
CHALLENGE DUE TO THE COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING INLAND. RAIN WILL
DETERIORATE CONDITIONS FROM VFR TO MVFR AT KPDT...KALW...KDLS...KPSC
AND KYKM THIS EVENING. RAIN HAS MOVED NORTH OF KRDM AND KBDN. THERE
WILL BE CLEARING BEHIND THE SYSTEM TONIGHT THAT MAY RESULT IN PATCHY
FOG AND STRATUS CLOUDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RADIATIONAL FOG AT
KPSC BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. AN EASTERLY SURFACE GRADIENT THROUGH THE
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE MAY RESULT IN LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE CREATING
STRATUS CLOUDS AT KDLS OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA TOMORROW AND CLOUDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KBDN AND KRDM. STRONGER WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN AFTER 26/00Z. 82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  44  66  45  58 /  10  20  30  20
ALW  47  66  48  57 /  40  20  40  30
PSC  45  63  48  63 /  60  20  30  20
YKM  42  56  42  57 /  80  30  50  20
HRI  42  64  46  62 /  20  20  30  20
ELN  41  58  41  56 /  80  40  50  20
RDM  39  63  37  54 /  10  20  40  20
LGD  43  66  44  53 /  10  20  40  40
GCD  42  64  42  53 /  10  20  40  30
DLS  45  60  46  58 /  60  50  60  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 3 PM PDT SUNDAY
     ORZ044-507-508.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY ORZ511.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR LADD AND PYLES
     CANYONS IN THE ORZ049.

WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 3 PM PDT SUNDAY WAZ028-029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

83/82/82










000
FXUS66 KPDT 242302 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
402 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEVELOPING PACIFIC STORM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH
THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO END ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON WHILE IT SPREADS NORTH INTO OUR
WASHINGTON ZONES. BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY PRECIP WILL BE VERY LIMITED.
THE PACIFIC STORM WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, THEN MOVE INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA SATURDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS TIME THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WINDS. STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTH END OF THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY,
ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON, AND PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN. GRADIENTS
WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GRANDE RONDE VALLEY AND
DURING SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS IN
THE 20 TO 35 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH. THUS HAVE ISSUED
WIND ADVISORIES FOR THESE AREAS. WINDS WILL GUST ALONG THE BLUE
MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY
EVENING. ALSO WINDS WILL BECOME PERSISTENT IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE
WITH GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE
FOOTHILLS AND LOWER BASIN. THUS HAVE ALSO ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THESE AREAS AS WELL. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING MORE PRECIP TO THE
AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, RUNNING BETWEEN
4500 AND 5000 FT BY SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING
SUNDAY DUE TO A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. THUS SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE SHOWERS
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT. 90

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OTHER THAN ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS...A DRY FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR MONDAY AS A WEAK TRANSITORY
RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN CONSIDERABLY ON
TUESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ANA BECOME ENTRAINED IN A
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT...MODERATE RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...AND THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ON WEDNESDAY. SNOW LEVELS DURING THIS TIME WILL
RANGE FROM 6000-8000 FEET AND WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO REBUILD ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT ONCE AGAIN...THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE DIVERGING BY
DAY 7. THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND EAST COMPARED TO THE ECMWF WITH
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. DESPITE THE
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ADVERTISING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THEY ALSO AGREE ON A CHANCE OF RAIN
THURSDAY...BUT WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES THE RAIN INTO FRIDAY...THE
ECMWF QUICKLY PULLS THE PACIFIC LOW NORTHEASTWARD AND DRIES OUT THE
LOCAL AREA.  COBB

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...FORECASTING CIGS AND VSBYS REMAINS A
CHALLENGE DUE TO THE COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING INLAND. RAIN WILL
DETERIORATE CONDITIONS FROM VFR TO MVFR AT KPDT...KALW...KDLS...KPSC
AND KYKM THIS EVENING. RAIN HAS MOVED NORTH OF KRDM AND KBDN. THERE
WILL BE CLEARING BEHIND THE SYSTEM TONIGHT THAT MAY RESULT IN PATCHY
FOG AND STRATUS CLOUDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RADIATIONAL FOG AT
KPSC BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. AN EASTERLY SURFACE GRADIENT THROUGH THE
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE MAY RESULT IN LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE CREATING
STRATUS CLOUDS AT KDLS OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA TOMORROW AND CLOUDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KBDN AND KRDM. STRONGER WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN AFTER 26/00Z. 82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  44  66  45  58 /  30  20  30  20
ALW  47  66  48  57 /  60  20  40  30
PSC  45  63  48  63 /  60  20  30  20
YKM  42  56  42  57 /  70  30  50  20
HRI  42  64  46  62 /  50  20  30  20
ELN  41  58  41  56 /  70  40  50  20
RDM  39  63  37  54 /  10  20  40  20
LGD  43  66  44  53 /  20  20  40  40
GCD  42  64  42  53 /  10  20  40  30
DLS  45  60  46  58 /  70  50  60  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 3 PM PDT SUNDAY
     ORZ044-507-508.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY ORZ511.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR LADD AND PYLES
     CANYONS IN THE ORZ049.

WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 3 PM PDT SUNDAY WAZ028-029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/82/82








000
FXUS66 KPDT 242149
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
249 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEVELOPING PACIFIC STORM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH
THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO END ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON WHILE IT SPREADS NORTH INTO OUR
WASHINGTON ZONES. BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY PRECIP WILL BE VERY LIMITED.
THE PACIFIC STORM WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, THEN MOVE INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA SATURDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS TIME THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WINDS. STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTH END OF THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY,
ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON, AND PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN. GRADIENTS
WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GRANDE RONDE VALLEY AND
DURING SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS IN
THE 20 TO 35 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH. THUS HAVE ISSUED
WIND ADVISORIES FOR THESE AREAS. WINDS WILL GUST ALONG THE BLUE
MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY
EVENING. ALSO WINDS WILL BECOME PERSISTENT IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE
WITH GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE
FOOTHILLS AND LOWER BASIN. THUS HAVE ALSO ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THESE AREAS AS WELL. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING MORE PRECIP TO THE
AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, RUNNING BETWEEN
4500 AND 5000 FT BY SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING
SUNDAY DUE TO A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. THUS SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE SHOWERS
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT. 90

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OTHER THAN ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS...A DRY FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR MONDAY AS A WEAK TRANSITORY
RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN CONSIDERABLY ON
TUESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ANA BECOME ENTRAINED IN A
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT...MODERATE RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...AND THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ON WEDNESDAY. SNOW LEVELS DURING THIS TIME WILL
RANGE FROM 6000-8000 FEET AND WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO REBUILD ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT ONCE AGAIN...THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE DIVERGING BY
DAY 7. THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND EAST COMPARED TO THE ECMWF WITH
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. DESPITE THE
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ADVERTISING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THEY ALSO AGREE ON A CHANCE OF RAIN
THURSDAY...BUT WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES THE RAIN INTO FRIDAY...THE
ECMWF QUICKLY PULLS THE PACIFIC LOW NORTHEASTWARD AND DRIES OUT THE
LOCAL AREA.  COBB

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...FORECASTING CIGS AND
VSBYS REMAINS A CHALLENGE DUE TO THE COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING
INLAND. RAIN TODAY WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE CONDITIONS FROM VFR TO
MVFR...AND LOCALLY IFR. RAIN HAS ALREADY MOVED INTO KRDM AND KBDN
AND WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD TO THE OR/WA BORDER BY 21Z THEN OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL WASHINGTON BY 00Z. THERE WILL BE CLEARING BEHIND THE SYSTEM
TONIGHT THAT MAY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS CLOUDS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW RADIATIONAL FOG AT KPSC BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. AN
EASTERLY SURFACE GRADIENT THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE MAY
RESULT IN LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE CREATING STRATUS CLOUDS AT KDLS
OVERNIGHT.  82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  44  66  45  58 /  30  20  30  20
ALW  47  66  48  57 /  60  20  40  30
PSC  45  63  48  63 /  60  20  30  20
YKM  42  56  42  57 /  70  30  50  20
HRI  42  64  46  62 /  50  20  30  20
ELN  41  58  41  56 /  70  40  50  20
RDM  39  63  37  54 /  10  20  40  20
LGD  43  66  44  53 /  20  20  40  40
GCD  42  64  42  53 /  10  20  40  30
DLS  45  60  46  58 /  70  50  60  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 3 PM PDT SUNDAY
     ORZ044-507-508.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY ORZ511.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR LADD AND PYLES
     CANYONS IN THE ORZ049.

WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 3 PM PDT SUNDAY WAZ028-029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/82/82









000
FXUS66 KPDT 241734 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1032 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...A STRONG LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING VARYING AMOUNTS OF PRECIP TO
MOST LOCATIONS AS IT MOVES NORTH. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN
15 MPH TODAY, BUT WILL BECOME LOCALLY BREEZY OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS TONIGHT. ALSO SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
ACROSS THE SOUTH END OF THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY. OVERALL FORECASTS
WERE ON TRACK WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT. DID MAKE SOME
TIMING ADJUSTMENTS AND DID RAISE POPS IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THE
TONIGHT PERIOD. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGH TEMPS. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERIODS OF RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW AND BREEZY WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY EVENING WILL TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK TRANSITORY RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES.
OTHER THAN ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...A DRY FORECAST IS IN STORE
FOR MONDAY. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN CONSIDERABLY AS A STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW TAKES OVER RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS DURING THIS TIME
WILL RANGE FROM 6000-7000 FEET. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE ONCE
AGAIN DIVERGING BY DAY 6...AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW BASED ON THE HIGH
DEGREE OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE RUNS. THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND
EAST COMPARED TO THE ECMWF OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC DURING THE MID WEEK. DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ADVERTISING A CHANCE OF RAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...FORECASTING CIGS AND VSBYS REMAINS A
CHALLENGE DUE TO THE COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING INLAND. RAIN
TODAY WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE CONDITIONS FROM VFR TO MVFR...AND
LOCALLY IFR. RAIN HAS ALREADY MOVED INTO KRDM AND KBDN AND WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD TO THE OR/WA BORDER BY 21Z THEN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WASHINGTON BY 00Z. THERE WILL BE CLEARING BEHIND THE SYSTEM TONIGHT
THAT MAY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS CLOUDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW RADIATIONAL FOG AT KPSC BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. AN EASTERLY
SURFACE GRADIENT THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE MAY RESULT IN LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE CREATING STRATUS CLOUDS AT KDLS OVERNIGHT.  82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  56  46  59  45 /  60  30  20  30
ALW  58  49  60  49 /  50  60  20  30
PSC  59  45  62  48 /  20  60  20  30
YKM  53  40  56  41 /  20  70  30  40
HRI  58  43  62  46 /  40  50  20  30
ELN  56  39  56  40 /  10  70  30  40
RDM  56  38  58  36 /  80  10  20  40
LGD  56  43  63  44 /  60  20  20  30
GCD  57  42  62  42 /  80  10  20  40
DLS  55  45  60  47 /  70  70  50  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/82/82








000
FXUS66 KPDT 241632
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
932 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...A STRONG LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING VARYING AMOUNTS OF PRECIP TO
MOST LOCATIONS AS IT MOVES NORTH. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN
15 MPH TODAY, BUT WILL BECOME LOCALLY BREEZY OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS TONIGHT. ALSO SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
ACROSS THE SOUTH END OF THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY. OVERALL FORECASTS
WERE ON TRACK WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT. DID MAKE SOME
TIMING ADJUSTMENTS AND DID RAISE POPS IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THE
TONIGHT PERIOD. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGH TEMPS. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERIODS OF RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW AND BREEZY WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY EVENING WILL TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK TRANSITORY RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES.
OTHER THAN ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...A DRY FORECAST IS IN STORE
FOR MONDAY. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN CONSIDERABLY AS A STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW TAKES OVER RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS DURING THIS TIME
WILL RANGE FROM 6000-7000 FEET. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE ONCE
AGAIN DIVERGING BY DAY 6...AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW BASED ON THE HIGH
DEGREE OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE RUNS. THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND
EAST COMPARED TO THE ECMWF OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC DURING THE MID WEEK. DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ADVERTISING A CHANCE OF RAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...12Z TAFS...FORECASTING CIGS AND
VSBYS WAS A CHALLENGE FOR THE 12Z TAFS. BELIEVE RAIN TODAY WILL
LIKELY DETERIORATE CONDITIONS FROM VFR TO MVFR...AND LOCALLY IFR.
RAIN WILL SOON DEVELOP AT KRDM AND KBDN THEN SPREAD NORTHWARD TO THE
OR/WA BORDER BY 18Z THEN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON BY NOON.
THERE WILL BE CLEARING BEHIND THE SYSTEM TONIGHT THAT MAY RESULT IN
PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS CLOUDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RADIATIONAL
FOG AT KPSC BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. AN EASTERLY SURFACE GRADIENT
THROUGH THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE MAY RESULT IN LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE TO DEVELOP STRATUS CLOUDS AT KDLS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  56  46  59  45 /  60  30  20  30
ALW  58  49  60  49 /  50  60  20  30
PSC  59  45  62  48 /  20  60  20  30
YKM  53  40  56  41 /  20  70  30  40
HRI  58  43  62  46 /  40  50  20  30
ELN  56  39  56  40 /  10  70  30  40
RDM  56  38  58  36 /  80  10  20  40
LGD  56  43  63  44 /  60  20  20  30
GCD  57  42  62  42 /  80  10  20  40
DLS  55  45  60  47 /  70  70  50  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/82/82









000
FXUS66 KPDT 241116
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
415 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES
OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WITH WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND IT AND UP THROUGH THE CWA. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DIG A CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST BY LATE FRIDAY AND
THEN WILL SWING UP THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AS A
WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
NORTHWARD AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS OFF THE COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL
BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO THE ENTIRE CWA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
WITH A BREAK TO OCCUR ON SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST ON SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND CASCADES.
THEN ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA BY LATE MONDAY
WITH ONLY A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN
UP SIGNIFICANTLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT WINDS WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REACH WIND ADVISORY
SPEEDS. RIGHT NOW THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO ISSUE ANY
HIGHLIGHTS ABOUT THIS BUT IT WILL BECOME WINDY IN MOST AREAS IN ANY
CASE AND WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY COOL
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 88

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW AND BREEZY WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.  SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY EVENING WILL TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK TRANSITORY RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES.
OTHER THAN ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...A DRY FORECAST IS IN STORE
FOR MONDAY. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN CONSIDERABLY AS A STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW TAKES OVER RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS DURING THIS TIME
WILL RANGE FROM 6000-7000 FEET.  THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE ONCE
AGAIN DIVERGING BY DAY 6...AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW BASED ON THE HIGH
DEGREE OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE RUNS. THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND
EAST COMPARED TO THE ECMWF OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC DURING THE MID WEEK. DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ADVERTISING A CHANCE OF RAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  WISTER

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS.  FORECASTING CIGS AND VSBYS WAS A CHALLENGE
FOR THE 12Z TAFS.  BELIEVE RAIN TODAY WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE
CONDITIONS FROM VFR TO MVFR...AND LOCALLY IFR.  RAIN WILL SOON
DEVELOP AT KRDM AND KBDN THEN SPREAD NORTHWARD TO THE OR/WA BORDER
BY 18Z THEN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON BY NOON.  THERE WILL BE
CLEARING BEHIND THE SYSTEM TONIGHT THAT MAY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG AND
STRATUS CLOUDS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RADIATIONAL FOG AT KPSC BY
SUNRISE SATURDAY.  AN EASTERLY SURFACE GRADIENT THROUGH THE EASTERN
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE MAY RESULT IN LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE TO DEVELOP
STRATUS CLOUDS AT KDLS OVERNIGHT.  WISTER


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  55  46  59  45 /  50  30  20  30
ALW  59  49  60  49 /  50  50  20  30
PSC  59  45  62  48 /  20  60  20  30
YKM  55  40  56  41 /  20  60  30  40
HRI  58  43  62  46 /  40  50  20  30
ELN  53  39  56  40 /  10  70  30  40
RDM  55  38  58  36 /  70  20  20  40
LGD  54  43  63  44 /  70  20  20  30
GCD  57  42  62  42 /  70  10  20  40
DLS  57  45  60  47 /  70  60  50  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/85/85








000
FXUS66 KPDT 240902
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
202 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES
OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WITH WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND IT AND UP THROUGH THE CWA. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DIG A CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST BY LATE FRIDAY AND
THEN WILL SWING UP THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AS A
WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
NORTHWARD AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS OFF THE COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL
BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO THE ENTIRE CWA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
WITH A BREAK TO OCCUR ON SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST ON SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND CASCADES.
THEN ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA BY LATE MONDAY
WITH ONLY A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN
UP SIGNIFICANTLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT WINDS WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REACH WIND ADVISORY
SPEEDS. RIGHT NOW THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO ISSUE ANY
HIGHLIGHTS ABOUT THIS BUT IT WILL BECOME WINDY IN MOST AREAS IN ANY
CASE AND WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY COOL
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 88

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW AND BREEZY WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.  SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY EVENING WILL TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK TRANSITORY RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES.
OTHER THAN ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...A DRY FORECAST IS IN STORE
FOR MONDAY. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN CONSIDERABLY AS A STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW TAKES OVER RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS DURING THIS TIME
WILL RANGE FROM 6000-7000 FEET.  THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE ONCE
AGAIN DIVERGING BY DAY 6...AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW BASED ON THE HIGH
DEGREE OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE RUNS. THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND
EAST COMPARED TO THE ECMWF OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC DURING THE MID WEEK. DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ADVERTISING A CHANCE OF RAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  WISTER

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...THE SWATH OF RAIN THAT
AFFECTED THE TAF SITES HAS MOVED SOUTH AND EAST EAST OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...IT WILL RETURN AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY. AS A
RESULT...KBDN AND KRDM COULD START SEEING RAIN AGAIN AROUND 12Z
ALONG WITH LOWERING CEILINGS. THE RAIN AND LOWERING CEILINGS WILL
THEN PROGRESS SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY
EVENING EVENTUALLY IMPACTING ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT...THEN TRANSITIONING TO MVFR OR LOWER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  55  46  59  45 /  50  30  20  30
ALW  59  49  60  49 /  50  50  20  30
PSC  59  45  62  48 /  20  60  20  30
YKM  55  40  56  41 /  20  60  30  40
HRI  58  43  62  46 /  40  50  20  30
ELN  53  39  56  40 /  10  70  30  40
RDM  55  38  58  36 /  70  20  20  40
LGD  54  43  63  44 /  70  20  20  30
GCD  57  42  62  42 /  70  10  20  40
DLS  57  45  60  47 /  70  60  50  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/85/85







000
FXUS66 KPDT 240525
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1025 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND EXTENDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE
MAIN MOISTURE PLUME HAS BEEN PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH AND CURRENTLY
EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWEST OREGON TO CENTRAL IDAHO. THIS DIVIDING LINE
SEPARATES THE MORE STEADY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM THE SHOWERY TYPE
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH. THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BE UNDER THE MOISTURE PLUME OVERNIGHT WHILE THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A BREAK FROM THE PRECIPITATION.

A SHORTWAVE COMING AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE UP THE
COAST ON FRIDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL
ONCE AGAIN PLACE THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN
BEGINNING IN THE SOUTH FIRST THEN LIFTING NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...THE SWATH OF RAIN THAT AFFECTED THE TAF SITES
HAS MOVED SOUTH AND EAST EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT WILL
RETURN AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...KBDN AND KRDM COULD
START SEEING RAIN AGAIN AROUND 12Z ALONG WITH LOWERING CEILINGS. THE
RAIN AND LOWERING CEILINGS WILL THEN PROGRESS SLOWLY NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY EVENING EVENTUALLY IMPACTING ALL TAF
SITES. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...THEN TRANSITIONING TO MVFR
OR LOWER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10
KTS.


&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 408 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A MOIST AND
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. THIS ADJUSTMENT OF THE MAIN MOISTURE
PLUME AND THE LOSS OF THE LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW THE
SHOWERS TO DECREASE OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
THERE HAVE BEEN STRAY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY OVER AND
NEAR THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
FOR A STRAY STORM TO CONTINUE EARLY IN THE EVENING OVER EXTREME
NORTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME
WILL LINGER FROM WALLOWA COUNTY SOUTHWEST THROUGH GRANT COUNTY TO
DESCHUTES COUNTY OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT SHOWERS TO PERSIST IN THESE
AREAS. A DEEPENING LOW WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST FRIDAY. THIS LOW
WILL CAUSE THE MOISTURE PLUME TO GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE VARYING
CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE AREA DUE TO THIS WARM FRONT. THIS LOW LOOKS
MOVE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN INTO SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA SATURDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW WOULD THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY SATURDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WILL BE OVER
CENTRAL OREGON AND IN THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS
MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN WITH AND
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT
ADVISORIES, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING DUE TO THE CONTINUED
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW. 90

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ON
SUNDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA BRINGING SNOW LEVELS
DOWN TO AROUND 4500-5000 FEET WHILE BREEZY WINDS PERSIST. YET ONLY
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...AND MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL THEN BE OVER THE AREA
MONDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER. THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST
TO ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY.
DURING THIS TIME SNOW LEVELS SHOULD RISE BACK UP ABOVE 6000 FEET.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF
AND ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY. WHILE THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT...THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS WEATHER PATTERN
AND FORECAST DETAILS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. COBB



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  46  59  44  65 /  10  50  30  20
ALW  49  60  47  66 /  20  40  40  10
PSC  47  61  45  63 /  10  20  40  20
YKM  39  54  40  57 /  10  20  60  30
HRI  46  61  43  63 /  10  40  40  20
ELN  38  54  39  57 /  10  10  70  30
RDM  40  54  38  62 /  20  70  20  20
LGD  45  55  43  64 /  60  70  20  20
GCD  45  57  42  64 /  60  70  10  20
DLS  45  58  45  60 /  10  70  50  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/91/91








000
FXUS66 KPDT 240300
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
800 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND EXTENDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE
MAIN MOISTURE PLUME HAS BEEN PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH AND CURRENTLY
EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWEST OREGON TO CENTRAL IDAHO. THIS DIVIDING LINE
SEPARATES THE MORE STEADY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM THE SHOWERY TYPE
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH. THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BE UNDER THE MOISTURE PLUME OVERNIGHT WHILE THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A BREAK FROM THE PRECIPITATION.

A SHORTWAVE COMING AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE UP THE
COAST ON FRIDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL
ONCE AGAIN PLACE THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN
BEGINNING IN THE SOUTH FIRST THEN LIFTING NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.


&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 408 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A MOIST AND
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. THIS ADJUSTMENT OF THE MAIN MOISTURE
PLUME AND THE LOSS OF THE LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW THE
SHOWERS TO DECREASE OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
THERE HAVE BEEN STRAY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY OVER AND
NEAR THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
FOR A STRAY STORM TO CONTINUE EARLY IN THE EVENING OVER EXTREME
NORTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME
WILL LINGER FROM WALLOWA COUNTY SOUTHWEST THROUGH GRANT COUNTY TO
DESCHUTES COUNTY OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT SHOWERS TO PERSIST IN THESE
AREAS. A DEEPENING LOW WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST FRIDAY. THIS LOW
WILL CAUSE THE MOISTURE PLUME TO GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE VARYING
CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE AREA DUE TO THIS WARM FRONT. THIS LOW LOOKS
MOVE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN INTO SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA SATURDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW WOULD THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY SATURDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WILL BE OVER
CENTRAL OREGON AND IN THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS
MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN WITH AND
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT
ADVISORIES, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING DUE TO THE CONTINUED
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW. 90

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ON
SUNDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA BRINGING SNOW LEVELS
DOWN TO AROUND 4500-5000 FEET WHILE BREEZY WINDS PERSIST. YET ONLY
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...AND MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL THEN BE OVER THE AREA
MONDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER. THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST
TO ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY.
DURING THIS TIME SNOW LEVELS SHOULD RISE BACK UP ABOVE 6000 FEET.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF
AND ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY. WHILE THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT...THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS WEATHER PATTERN
AND FORECAST DETAILS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. COBB

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...THE SWATH OF RAIN THAT AFFECTED THE TAF SITES
EARLIER IS NOW MOVING EAST OF THE AREA AND CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...IT WILL RETURN AS A WARM
FRONT ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...KBDN AND KRDM COULD START SEEING RAIN
AGAIN AROUND 09Z. RAIN WILL THEN PROGRESS SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THAT SAID...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING...THEN MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN AS GUSTY AS ANTICIPATED BUT WILL BE 10-20
KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.  82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  46  59  44  65 /  10  50  30  20
ALW  49  60  47  66 /  20  40  40  10
PSC  47  61  45  63 /  10  20  40  20
YKM  39  54  40  57 /  10  20  60  30
HRI  46  61  43  63 /  10  40  40  20
ELN  38  54  39  57 /  10  10  70  30
RDM  40  54  38  62 /  20  70  20  20
LGD  45  55  43  64 /  60  70  20  20
GCD  45  57  42  64 /  60  70  10  20
DLS  45  58  45  60 /  10  70  50  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/91/91










000
FXUS66 KPDT 240300
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
800 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND EXTENDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE
MAIN MOISTURE PLUME HAS BEEN PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH AND CURRENTLY
EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWEST OREGON TO CENTRAL IDAHO. THIS DIVIDING LINE
SEPARATES THE MORE STEADY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM THE SHOWERY TYPE
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH. THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BE UNDER THE MOISTURE PLUME OVERNIGHT WHILE THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A BREAK FROM THE PRECIPITATION.

A SHORTWAVE COMING AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE UP THE
COAST ON FRIDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL
ONCE AGAIN PLACE THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN
BEGINNING IN THE SOUTH FIRST THEN LIFTING NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.


&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 408 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A MOIST AND
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. THIS ADJUSTMENT OF THE MAIN MOISTURE
PLUME AND THE LOSS OF THE LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW THE
SHOWERS TO DECREASE OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
THERE HAVE BEEN STRAY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY OVER AND
NEAR THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
FOR A STRAY STORM TO CONTINUE EARLY IN THE EVENING OVER EXTREME
NORTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME
WILL LINGER FROM WALLOWA COUNTY SOUTHWEST THROUGH GRANT COUNTY TO
DESCHUTES COUNTY OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT SHOWERS TO PERSIST IN THESE
AREAS. A DEEPENING LOW WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST FRIDAY. THIS LOW
WILL CAUSE THE MOISTURE PLUME TO GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE VARYING
CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE AREA DUE TO THIS WARM FRONT. THIS LOW LOOKS
MOVE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN INTO SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA SATURDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW WOULD THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY SATURDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WILL BE OVER
CENTRAL OREGON AND IN THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS
MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN WITH AND
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT
ADVISORIES, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING DUE TO THE CONTINUED
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW. 90

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ON
SUNDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA BRINGING SNOW LEVELS
DOWN TO AROUND 4500-5000 FEET WHILE BREEZY WINDS PERSIST. YET ONLY
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...AND MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL THEN BE OVER THE AREA
MONDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER. THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST
TO ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY.
DURING THIS TIME SNOW LEVELS SHOULD RISE BACK UP ABOVE 6000 FEET.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF
AND ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY. WHILE THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT...THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS WEATHER PATTERN
AND FORECAST DETAILS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. COBB

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...THE SWATH OF RAIN THAT AFFECTED THE TAF SITES
EARLIER IS NOW MOVING EAST OF THE AREA AND CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...IT WILL RETURN AS A WARM
FRONT ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...KBDN AND KRDM COULD START SEEING RAIN
AGAIN AROUND 09Z. RAIN WILL THEN PROGRESS SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THAT SAID...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING...THEN MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN AS GUSTY AS ANTICIPATED BUT WILL BE 10-20
KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.  82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  46  59  44  65 /  10  50  30  20
ALW  49  60  47  66 /  20  40  40  10
PSC  47  61  45  63 /  10  20  40  20
YKM  39  54  40  57 /  10  20  60  30
HRI  46  61  43  63 /  10  40  40  20
ELN  38  54  39  57 /  10  10  70  30
RDM  40  54  38  62 /  20  70  20  20
LGD  45  55  43  64 /  60  70  20  20
GCD  45  57  42  64 /  60  70  10  20
DLS  45  58  45  60 /  10  70  50  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/91/91










000
FXUS66 KPDT 232308 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
408 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A MOIST AND
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. THIS ADJUSTMENT OF THE MAIN MOISTURE
PLUME AND THE LOSS OF THE LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW THE
SHOWERS TO DECREASE OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
THERE HAVE BEEN STRAY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY OVER AND
NEAR THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
FOR A STRAY STORM TO CONTINUE EARLY IN THE EVENING OVER EXTREME
NORTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME
WILL LINGER FROM WALLOWA COUNTY SOUTHWEST THROUGH GRANT COUNTY TO
DESCHUTES COUNTY OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT SHOWERS TO PERSIST IN THESE
AREAS. A DEEPENING LOW WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST FRIDAY. THIS LOW
WILL CAUSE THE MOISTURE PLUME TO GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE VARYING
CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE AREA DUE TO THIS WARM FRONT. THIS LOW LOOKS
MOVE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN INTO SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA SATURDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW WOULD THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY SATURDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WILL BE OVER
CENTRAL OREGON AND IN THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS
MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN WITH AND
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT
ADVISORIES, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING DUE TO THE CONTINUED
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW. 90

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ON
SUNDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA BRINGING SNOW LEVELS
DOWN TO AROUND 4500-5000 FEET WHILE BREEZY WINDS PERSIST. YET ONLY
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...AND MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL THEN BE OVER THE AREA
MONDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER. THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST
TO ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY.
DURING THIS TIME SNOW LEVELS SHOULD RISE BACK UP ABOVE 6000 FEET.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF
AND ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY. WHILE THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT...THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS WEATHER PATTERN
AND FORECAST DETAILS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. COBB

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...THE SWATH OF RAIN THAT AFFECTED THE TAF SITES
EARLIER IS NOW MOVING EAST OF THE AREA AND CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...IT WILL RETURN AS A WARM
FRONT ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...KBDN AND KRDM COULD START SEEING RAIN
AGAIN AROUND 09Z. RAIN WILL THEN PROGRESS SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THAT SAID...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING...THEN MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN AS GUSTY AS ANTICIPATED BUT WILL BE 10-20
KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.  82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  45  60  44  65 /  20  30  30  20
ALW  48  61  47  66 /  20  30  40  10
PSC  47  62  45  63 /  10  10  40  20
YKM  40  55  40  57 /  20  10  60  30
HRI  45  61  43  63 /  20  20  40  20
ELN  39  57  39  57 /  20  10  70  30
RDM  39  56  38  62 /  30  70  20  20
LGD  46  58  43  64 /  60  60  20  20
GCD  43  57  42  64 /  60  60  10  20
DLS  45  58  45  60 /  20  50  50  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/82/82








000
FXUS66 KPDT 232143
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
243 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A MOIST AND
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. THIS ADJUSTMENT OF THE MAIN MOISTURE
PLUME AND THE LOSS OF THE LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW THE
SHOWERS TO DECREASE OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
THERE HAVE BEEN STRAY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY OVER AND
NEAR THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
FOR A STRAY STORM TO CONTINUE EARLY IN THE EVENING OVER EXTREME
NORTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME
WILL LINGER FROM WALLOWA COUNTY SOUTHWEST THROUGH GRANT COUNTY TO
DESCHUTES COUNTY OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT SHOWERS TO PERSIST IN THESE
AREAS. A DEEPENING LOW WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST FRIDAY. THIS LOW
WILL CAUSE THE MOISTURE PLUME TO GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE VARYING
CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE AREA DUE TO THIS WARM FRONT. THIS LOW LOOKS
MOVE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN INTO SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA SATURDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW WOULD THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY SATURDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WILL BE OVER
CENTRAL OREGON AND IN THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS
MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN WITH AND
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT
ADVISORIES, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING DUE TO THE CONTINUED
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW. 90

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ON
SUNDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA BRINGING SNOW LEVELS
DOWN TO AROUND 4500-5000 FEET WHILE BREEZY WINDS PERSIST. YET ONLY
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...AND MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL THEN BE OVER THE AREA
MONDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER. THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST
TO ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY.
DURING THIS TIME SNOW LEVELS SHOULD RISE BACK UP ABOVE 6000 FEET.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF
AND ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY. WHILE THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT...THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS WEATHER PATTERN
AND FORECAST DETAILS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. COBB

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL WITH BKN-OVC SKIES WITH BASES BETWEEN 4000-10000 FEET
AND HIGHER CLOUDS ABOVE. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY MAY BRIEFLY LOWER
TO IFR IN AREAS OF RAIN...MAINLY NEAR KRDM AND KBDN. SW-W WINDS 8-15
KNOTS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY EVENING...THEN
DIURNAL TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS WILL PREVAIL. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO THIN OUT ON FRIDAY MORNING...BUT CIRRUS SHOULD PERSIST. 82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  45  60  44  65 /  20  30  30  20
ALW  48  61  47  66 /  20  30  40  10
PSC  47  62  45  63 /  10  10  40  20
YKM  40  55  40  57 /  20  10  60  30
HRI  45  61  43  63 /  20  20  40  20
ELN  39  57  39  57 /  20  10  70  30
RDM  39  56  38  62 /  30  70  20  20
LGD  46  58  43  64 /  60  60  20  20
GCD  43  57  42  64 /  60  60  10  20
DLS  45  58  45  60 /  20  50  50  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/82/82









000
FXUS66 KPDT 231728 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1028 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...A MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. IN ADDITION WEAK UPPER
WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. AS SUCH WILL SEE MAINLY SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TODAY. THE SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE THIS EVENING OVER MOST, BUT NOT ALL, AREAS. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR STRAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL FORECASTS ARE ON TRACK, THOUGH DID EXTEND
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH FROM THE BLUE MOUNTAINS
INTO GRANT COUNTY. ALSO RAISED POPS OVER THE YAKIMA AND KITTITAS
VALLEYS FOR THIS MORNING. OTHER UPDATES INCLUDED ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGH
TEMPS, SKY COVER AND WINDS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS IS GOOD THROUGH TUESDAY BUT CONFIDENCE FADES LATE IN
THE PERIOD. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE SHIFTING
EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ARE
FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD (CATEGORICAL OVER THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES)...AND IT WILL BE VERY WINDY IN MANY AREAS. A WIND ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED FOR CENTRAL OREGON...THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS OF THE
BLUE MOUNTAINS...AND THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO NEAR 4500-5000 FEET LATE SUNDAY AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...BUT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT AS
PRECIPITATION ALSO TAPERS OFF BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ANY
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE GFS AND
ECMWF BECOME OUT OF PHASE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE
GFS STRENGTHENS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. DURING
THE MID WEEK WHILE THE ECMWF DEEPENS A TROUGH OFFSHORE. I AM LEANING
TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION BUT WILL BE SLIGHTLY CONSERVATIVE WITH
POPS AND TEMPERATURES AND KEEP THE FORECAST CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
BKN-OVC SKIES WITH BASES BETWEEN 4000-10000 FEET AND HIGHER CLOUDS
ABOVE. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO IFR IN AREAS OF
RAIN...MAINLY NEAR KRDM AND KBDN. SW-W WINDS 8-15 KNOTS GUSTING TO
25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY EVENING...THEN DIURNAL TERRAIN
DRIVEN WINDS WILL PREVAIL. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO THIN OUT
ON FRIDAY MORNING...BUT CIRRUS SHOULD PERSIST.  82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  63  47  60  43 /  60  20  30  40
ALW  64  50  61  48 /  60  20  30  40
PSC  67  47  61  45 /  40  10  10  40
YKM  60  41  57  41 /  40  20  20  50
HRI  66  46  61  43 /  50  20  20  40
ELN  61  39  55  41 /  40  20  10  60
RDM  61  39  58  39 /  60  30  70  20
LGD  60  47  58  43 /  80  40  60  20
GCD  60  43  57  42 /  70  40  60  10
DLS  63  45  59  46 /  50  20  50  60

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/85/82








000
FXUS66 KPDT 231554
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
854 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...A MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. IN ADDITION WEAK UPPER
WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. AS SUCH WILL SEE MAINLY SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TODAY. THE SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE THIS EVENING OVER MOST, BUT NOT ALL, AREAS. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR STRAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL FORECASTS ARE ON TRACK, THOUGH DID EXTEND
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH FROM THE BLUE MOUNTAINS
INTO GRANT COUNTY. ALSO RAISED POPS OVER THE YAKIMA AND KITTITAS
VALLEYS FOR THIS MORNING. OTHER UPDATES INCLUDED ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGH
TEMPS, SKY COVER AND WINDS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS IS GOOD THROUGH TUESDAY BUT CONFIDENCE FADES LATE IN
THE PERIOD. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE SHIFTING
EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ARE
FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD (CATEGORICAL OVER THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES)...AND IT WILL BE VERY WINDY IN MANY AREAS. A WIND ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED FOR CENTRAL OREGON...THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS OF THE
BLUE MOUNTAINS...AND THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO NEAR 4500-5000 FEET LATE SUNDAY AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...BUT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT AS
PRECIPITATION ALSO TAPERS OFF BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ANY
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE GFS AND
ECMWF BECOME OUT OF PHASE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE
GFS STRENGTHENS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. DURING
THE MID WEEK WHILE THE ECMWF DEEPENS A TROUGH OFFSHORE. I AM LEANING
TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION BUT WILL BE SLIGHTLY CONSERVATIVE WITH
POPS AND TEMPERATURES AND KEEP THE FORECAST CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH BKN-OVC SKIES WITH BASES BETWEEN 4000-10000 FEET AND
HIGHER CLOUDS ABOVE. CIGS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR IN AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY NEAR KRDM AND KBDN. SW-W WINDS 8-15 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  63  47  60  43 /  60  20  30  40
ALW  64  50  61  48 /  60  20  30  40
PSC  67  47  61  45 /  40  10  10  40
YKM  60  41  57  41 /  40  20  20  50
HRI  66  46  61  43 /  50  20  20  40
ELN  61  39  55  41 /  40  20  10  60
RDM  61  39  58  39 /  60  30  70  20
LGD  60  47  58  43 /  80  40  60  20
GCD  60  43  57  42 /  70  40  60  10
DLS  63  45  59  46 /  50  20  50  60

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/85/82









000
FXUS66 KPDT 231051 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
350 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A LARGE AND PERSISTENT UPPER
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OFF THE COAST THROUGH TODAY. A SHORT WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH IS PULLING SHOWERS UP AND
ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. THERE ARE ABUNDANT SHOWERS BEING SHOWN
ON RADAR IMAGERY WITH THE SATELLITE SHOWING THE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
STREAMING INTO THE REGION VIA AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF MOISTURE. A
WAVE IS FORMING ALONG THIS BAND OF MOISTURE OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON
AND THIS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND
CANNOT RULE OUT EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS
EASTWARD TO THE IDAHO BORDER. HOWEVER THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
SO WILL ONLY GO WITH ISOLATED. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING UP
ACROSS THE CWA WITH A BAND OF MOISTURE MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH
OVERNIGHT. ON SATURDAY DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE AS THE FORECAST AREA
WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG
THE COAST. THEN ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW SATURDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AND IT WILL BECOME LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. 88

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IS GOOD THROUGH TUESDAY BUT CONFIDENCE FADES
LATE IN THE PERIOD.  MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE
SHIFTING EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS ARE FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD (CATEGORICAL OVER THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CASCADES)...AND IT WILL BE VERY WINDY IN MANY AREAS. A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR CENTRAL OREGON...THE SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS...AND THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT.  SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO NEAR 4500-5000 FEET LATE
SUNDAY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...BUT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE LIGHT AS PRECIPITATION ALSO TAPERS OFF BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.  ANY PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE CASCADES.
THE GFS AND ECMWF BECOME OUT OF PHASE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. THE GFS STRENGTHENS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. DURING THE MID WEEK WHILE THE ECMWF DEEPENS A TROUGH OFFSHORE.
I AM LEANING TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION BUT WILL BE SLIGHTLY
CONSERVATIVE WITH POPS AND TEMPERATURES AND KEEP THE FORECAST CLOSE
TO CLIMATOLOGY.  WISTER

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH BKN-OVC
SKIES WITH BASES BETWEEN 4000-10000 FEET AND HIGHER CLOUDS ABOVE.
CIGS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR IN AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY NEAR
KRDM AND KBDN. SW-W WINDS 8-15 KNOTS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WISTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  65  47  60  43 /  50  20  30  40
ALW  65  50  61  48 /  60  20  30  40
PSC  67  47  61  45 /  40  10  10  40
YKM  62  41  57  41 /  40  20  20  50
HRI  67  46  61  43 /  40  20  20  40
ELN  59  39  55  41 /  40  20  10  60
RDM  60  39  58  39 /  40  30  70  20
LGD  59  47  58  43 /  80  40  60  20
GCD  58  43  57  42 /  70  40  60  10
DLS  63  45  59  46 /  40  20  50  60

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/85/85








000
FXUS66 KPDT 230920
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
220 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A LARGE AND PERSISTENT UPPER
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OFF THE COAST THROUGH TODAY. A SHORT WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH IS PULLING SHOWERS UP AND
ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. THERE ARE ABUNDANT SHOWERS BEING SHOWN
ON RADAR IMAGERY WITH THE SATELLITE SHOWING THE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
STREAMING INTO THE REGION VIA AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF MOISTURE. A
WAVE IS FORMING ALONG THIS BAND OF MOISTURE OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON
AND THIS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND
CANNOT RULE OUT EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS
EASTWARD TO THE IDAHO BORDER. HOWEVER THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
SO WILL ONLY GO WITH ISOLATED. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING UP
ACROSS THE CWA WITH A BAND OF MOISTURE MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH
OVERNIGHT. ON SATURDAY DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE AS THE FORECAST AREA
WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG
THE COAST. THEN ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW SATURDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AND IT WILL BECOME LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. 88

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IS GOOD THROUGH TUESDAY BUT CONFIDENCE FADES
LATE IN THE PERIOD.  MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE
SHIFTING EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS ARE FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD (CATEGORICAL OVER THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CASCADES)...AND IT WILL BE VERY WINDY IN MANY AREAS. A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR CENTRAL OREGON...THE SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS...AND THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT.  SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO NEAR 4500-5000 FEET LATE
SUNDAY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...BUT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE LIGHT AS PRECIPITATION ALSO TAPERS OFF BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.  ANY PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE CASCADES.
THE GFS AND ECMWF BECOME OUT OF PHASE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. THE GFS STRENGTHENS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. DURING THE MID WEEK WHILE THE ECMWF DEEPENS A TROUGH OFFSHORE.
I AM LEANING TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION BUT WILL BE SLIGHTLY
CONSERVATIVE WITH POPS AND TEMPERATURES AND KEEP THE FORECAST CLOSE
TO CLIMATOLOGY.  WISTER

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...OVERCAST SKIES
OVERNIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME BROKEN ON
THURSDAY BUT REMAIN VFR. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION AND GUSTY AT TIMES. WINDS WILL LESSEN SOME
OVERNIGHT...THEN BECOME 15 TO 25 MPH AND SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND
MIDDAY THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  65  47  60  43 /  50  20  30  40
ALW  65  50  61  48 /  60  20  30  40
PSC  67  47  61  45 /  40  10  10  40
YKM  62  41  57  41 /  40  20  20  50
HRI  67  46  61  43 /  40  20  20  40
ELN  59  39  55  41 /  40  20  10  60
RDM  60  39  58  39 /  40  30  70  20
LGD  59  47  58  43 /  80  40  60  20
GCD  58  43  57  42 /  70  40  60  10
DLS  63  45  59  46 /  40  20  50  60

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/85/85







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