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000
FXUS66 KPDT 222253 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
400 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH WAS PUSHING ABUNDANT MOISTURE NORTH AND INTO THE TWO STATE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. PWATS WERE AROUND AN INCH AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREAS THAT INCLUDE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES AND OVER THE BLUE/WALLOWA/JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS. IN
ADDITION HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE STORMS
WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AND THE BULK OF THE PCPN SHOULD BE OVER
THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA TOWARD MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW DRIFTS AWAY
FROM THE REGION DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE TWO STATE AREA SUNDAY.
HOWEVER A DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTN THAT WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
ISOLD TSRA AGAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY WITH A WARMING TREND
EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT BUT CONTINUE TO HAVE DISCREPANCIES ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH ACROSS WA/OR EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  IN
GENERAL...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  THIS COULD CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY DEPENDING IF THE GFS AND CANADIAN VERIFY WHICH KEEP
THE LOW EAST OF THE CASCADES UNLIKE THE ECMWF WHICH PUSHES IT
EASTWARD.  MODELS HAVE A HISTORY OF POOR PLACEMENT OF CLOSED LOWS
AND TEND TO FORCE LOWS OUT OF THE REGION TOO FAST.  KEEPING THIS IN
MIND...WILL FOLLOW THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS OF GFS/CANADIAN.  THE LONG
DURATION OF THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW MAY
FINALLY TRANSITION TO A DRIER RIDGE PATTERN BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.  WILL LOWER POPS AND KEEP ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST BY FRIDAY.  WISTER

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOPED OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  ALL TERMINAL AIRPORTS HAVE A
POTENTIAL TO OBSERVE A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...AND KRDM
AND KBDN HAVE SCUD CLOUDS DOWN TO 1500 FEET.  HEAVY RAIN WITH
RAINFALL RATES OF 0.5 TO 1.0 PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE.  CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE SATURDAY MORNING...AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED. WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 15 TO 25 KT AT THE KDLS.
WISTER


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  54  75  51  73 /  60  40  20  10
ALW  56  77  55  77 /  60  40  20  10
PSC  58  82  54  82 /  50  40  10  10
YKM  59  81  55  81 /  40  40  10  10
HRI  57  80  53  78 /  50  40  10  10
ELN  56  80  54  80 /  30  40  20  10
RDM  44  70  39  72 /  20  20  10  10
LGD  54  70  50  70 /  70  40  30  30
GCD  49  71  45  72 /  70  30  20  10
DLS  57  70  54  79 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ049-050-502-
     503-505-506.

WA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ030-520.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/85/85




000
FXUS66 KPDT 222253 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
400 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH WAS PUSHING ABUNDANT MOISTURE NORTH AND INTO THE TWO STATE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. PWATS WERE AROUND AN INCH AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREAS THAT INCLUDE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES AND OVER THE BLUE/WALLOWA/JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS. IN
ADDITION HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE STORMS
WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AND THE BULK OF THE PCPN SHOULD BE OVER
THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA TOWARD MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW DRIFTS AWAY
FROM THE REGION DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE TWO STATE AREA SUNDAY.
HOWEVER A DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTN THAT WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
ISOLD TSRA AGAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY WITH A WARMING TREND
EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT BUT CONTINUE TO HAVE DISCREPANCIES ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH ACROSS WA/OR EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  IN
GENERAL...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  THIS COULD CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY DEPENDING IF THE GFS AND CANADIAN VERIFY WHICH KEEP
THE LOW EAST OF THE CASCADES UNLIKE THE ECMWF WHICH PUSHES IT
EASTWARD.  MODELS HAVE A HISTORY OF POOR PLACEMENT OF CLOSED LOWS
AND TEND TO FORCE LOWS OUT OF THE REGION TOO FAST.  KEEPING THIS IN
MIND...WILL FOLLOW THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS OF GFS/CANADIAN.  THE LONG
DURATION OF THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW MAY
FINALLY TRANSITION TO A DRIER RIDGE PATTERN BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.  WILL LOWER POPS AND KEEP ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST BY FRIDAY.  WISTER

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOPED OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  ALL TERMINAL AIRPORTS HAVE A
POTENTIAL TO OBSERVE A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...AND KRDM
AND KBDN HAVE SCUD CLOUDS DOWN TO 1500 FEET.  HEAVY RAIN WITH
RAINFALL RATES OF 0.5 TO 1.0 PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE.  CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE SATURDAY MORNING...AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED. WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 15 TO 25 KT AT THE KDLS.
WISTER


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  54  75  51  73 /  60  40  20  10
ALW  56  77  55  77 /  60  40  20  10
PSC  58  82  54  82 /  50  40  10  10
YKM  59  81  55  81 /  40  40  10  10
HRI  57  80  53  78 /  50  40  10  10
ELN  56  80  54  80 /  30  40  20  10
RDM  44  70  39  72 /  20  20  10  10
LGD  54  70  50  70 /  70  40  30  30
GCD  49  71  45  72 /  70  30  20  10
DLS  57  70  54  79 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ049-050-502-
     503-505-506.

WA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ030-520.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/85/85





000
FXUS66 KPDT 222140
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
225 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH WAS PUSHING ABUNDANT MOISTURE NORTH AND INTO THE TWO STATE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. PWATS WERE AROUND AN INCH AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREAS THAT INCLUDE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES AND OVER THE BLUE/WALLOWA/JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS. IN
ADDITION HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE STORMS
WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AND THE BULK OF THE PCPN SHOULD BE OVER
THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA TOWARD MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW DRIFTS AWAY
FROM THE REGION DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE TWO STATE AREA SUNDAY.
HOWEVER A DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTN THAT WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
ISOLD TSRA AGAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY WITH A WARMING TREND
EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT BUT CONTINUE TO HAVE DISCREPANCIES ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH ACROSS WA/OR EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  IN
GENERAL...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  THIS COULD CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY DEPENDING IF THE GFS AND CANADIAN VERIFY WHICH KEEP
THE LOW EAST OF THE CASCADES UNLIKE THE ECMWF WHICH PUSHES IT
EASTWARD.  MODELS HAVE A HISTORY OF POOR PLACEMENT OF CLOSED LOWS
AND TEND TO FORCE LOWS OUT OF THE REGION TOO FAST.  KEEPING THIS IN
MIND...WILL FOLLOW THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS OF GFS/CANADIAN.  THE LONG
DURATION OF THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW MAY
FINALLY TRANSITION TO A DRIER RIDGE PATTERN BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.  WILL LOWER POPS AND KEEP ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST BY FRIDAY.  WISTER

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION). IT WILL PREDOMINANTLY
REMAIN VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT CIGS WILL BE 3500-8000 FEET
AGL AND THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
 WEB CAMS NEAR KRDM AND KBDN ARE SHOWING LOW LYING SCUD CLOUDS WITH
BASES AROUND 1500 FEET.  TOWERING CUMULUS AND/OR CB CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...AND THERE MAY BE IN CLOUD
LIGHTNING OR CTG LIGHTNING. WINDS WILL HAVE A WESTERLY COMPONENT
THIS AFTERNOON AT 5-15 KT...EXCEPT 15 TO 25 KT AT KDLS.  WISTER


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  54  75  51  73 /  60  40  20  10
ALW  56  77  55  77 /  60  40  20  10
PSC  58  82  54  82 /  50  40  10  10
YKM  59  81  55  81 /  40  40  10  10
HRI  57  80  53  78 /  50  40  10  10
ELN  56  80  54  80 /  30  40  20  10
RDM  44  70  39  72 /  20  20  10  10
LGD  54  70  50  70 /  70  40  30  30
GCD  49  71  45  72 /  70  30  20  10
DLS  57  70  54  79 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ049-050-502-
     503-505-506.

WA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ030-520.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/85/85





000
FXUS66 KPDT 221735 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1035 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RAP AROUND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER CALIFORNIA AND INTO OUR AREA. COMBINING THIS WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. PWAT REMAINS HIGH AND SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE REGION THAT INCLUDES THE BLUE/WALLOWA MTNS ALONG WITH THE JOHN
DAY HIGHLANDS WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. IN
ADDITION SOME MODIFICATIONS WERE DONE TO AFTN TEMPS AND THE PRESENT
SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS. IT WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS...BUT CIGS WILL BE 3500-8000 FEET AGL AND THERE MAY BE
PERIODS OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  WEB CAMS NEAR KRDM
AND KBDN ARE SHOWING LOW LYING SCUD CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 1500
FEET.  TOWERING CUMULUS AND/OR CB CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES...AND THERE MAY BE IN CLOUD LIGHTNING OR CTG
LIGHTNING. WINDS WILL HAVE A WESTERLY COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON AT 5-
15 KT...EXCEPT 15 TO 25 KT AT KDLS.  WISTER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE
AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE TODAY.
INCREASING WEST FLOW FROM THE GORGE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL OREGON WILL
INCREASINGLY LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THESE AREAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORM MOTION WILL
BE RELATIVELY SLOW AND DECENT RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
FROM THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE MAIN SHOWER AND STORM FOCUS LOOKS TO BE
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN ZONES WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
COVERING THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS NORTH TO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS
AND NORTHEAST TO WALLOWA COUNTY. A WEAK LOW LOOKS TO SLIDE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AS A RESULT A DEFORMATION
PRECIP BAND MAY DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW. AS SUCH WILL KEEP
40-60 PERCENT POPS GOING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON INTO
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL OREGON TONIGHT. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY. THUS THE AIR MASS OVER THE
REGION WILL BECOME A BIT DRIER, LIMITING THE AREAS TO BE AFFECTED BY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS
TIME EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WASHINGTON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN ZONES. 90

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN OVERALL DRYING TREND WILL
OCCUR ON SUNDAY WITH NWLY FLOW REGIME BECOMING AT LEAST BRIEFLY
ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR EAST AND ALONG THE WASHINGTON
CASCADE EAST SLOPES. ON MONDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO WASHINGTON AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND WASHINGTON CASCADES.
FROM TUESDAY ONWARD THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIVERGE ON THE HANDLING
OF THE UPPER LOW. THE GFS MEANDERS THE LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA
KEEPING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEREAS THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW OUT AND
REPLACES IT WITH DRY NW FLOW. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED THIS FORECAST
UPDATE TOWARD THE GFS WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN CONTINUITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS UPPER 70S TO MID 80S LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH 60S TO LOWER
70S MOUNTAINS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  74  54  73  51 /  50  40  40  20
ALW  76  56  75  55 /  50  50  30  20
PSC  83  58  80  54 /  40  40  30  10
YKM  78  59  79  55 /  60  40  40  20
HRI  80  57  78  53 /  50  40  30  10
ELN  79  56  78  54 /  60  40  40  20
RDM  68  44  68  39 /  40  20  20  10
LGD  69  54  68  50 /  80  60  40  30
GCD  68  49  69  45 /  80  60  30  20
DLS  76  57  70  54 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ORZ049-050-502-503-
     505-506.

WA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WAZ030.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/85




000
FXUS66 KPDT 221735 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1035 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RAP AROUND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER CALIFORNIA AND INTO OUR AREA. COMBINING THIS WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. PWAT REMAINS HIGH AND SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE REGION THAT INCLUDES THE BLUE/WALLOWA MTNS ALONG WITH THE JOHN
DAY HIGHLANDS WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. IN
ADDITION SOME MODIFICATIONS WERE DONE TO AFTN TEMPS AND THE PRESENT
SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS. IT WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS...BUT CIGS WILL BE 3500-8000 FEET AGL AND THERE MAY BE
PERIODS OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  WEB CAMS NEAR KRDM
AND KBDN ARE SHOWING LOW LYING SCUD CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 1500
FEET.  TOWERING CUMULUS AND/OR CB CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES...AND THERE MAY BE IN CLOUD LIGHTNING OR CTG
LIGHTNING. WINDS WILL HAVE A WESTERLY COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON AT 5-
15 KT...EXCEPT 15 TO 25 KT AT KDLS.  WISTER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE
AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE TODAY.
INCREASING WEST FLOW FROM THE GORGE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL OREGON WILL
INCREASINGLY LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THESE AREAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORM MOTION WILL
BE RELATIVELY SLOW AND DECENT RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
FROM THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE MAIN SHOWER AND STORM FOCUS LOOKS TO BE
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN ZONES WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
COVERING THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS NORTH TO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS
AND NORTHEAST TO WALLOWA COUNTY. A WEAK LOW LOOKS TO SLIDE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AS A RESULT A DEFORMATION
PRECIP BAND MAY DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW. AS SUCH WILL KEEP
40-60 PERCENT POPS GOING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON INTO
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL OREGON TONIGHT. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY. THUS THE AIR MASS OVER THE
REGION WILL BECOME A BIT DRIER, LIMITING THE AREAS TO BE AFFECTED BY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS
TIME EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WASHINGTON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN ZONES. 90

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN OVERALL DRYING TREND WILL
OCCUR ON SUNDAY WITH NWLY FLOW REGIME BECOMING AT LEAST BRIEFLY
ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR EAST AND ALONG THE WASHINGTON
CASCADE EAST SLOPES. ON MONDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO WASHINGTON AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND WASHINGTON CASCADES.
FROM TUESDAY ONWARD THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIVERGE ON THE HANDLING
OF THE UPPER LOW. THE GFS MEANDERS THE LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA
KEEPING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEREAS THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW OUT AND
REPLACES IT WITH DRY NW FLOW. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED THIS FORECAST
UPDATE TOWARD THE GFS WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN CONTINUITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS UPPER 70S TO MID 80S LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH 60S TO LOWER
70S MOUNTAINS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  74  54  73  51 /  50  40  40  20
ALW  76  56  75  55 /  50  50  30  20
PSC  83  58  80  54 /  40  40  30  10
YKM  78  59  79  55 /  60  40  40  20
HRI  80  57  78  53 /  50  40  30  10
ELN  79  56  78  54 /  60  40  40  20
RDM  68  44  68  39 /  40  20  20  10
LGD  69  54  68  50 /  80  60  40  30
GCD  68  49  69  45 /  80  60  30  20
DLS  76  57  70  54 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ORZ049-050-502-503-
     505-506.

WA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WAZ030.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/85





000
FXUS66 KPDT 221735 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1035 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RAP AROUND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER CALIFORNIA AND INTO OUR AREA. COMBINING THIS WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. PWAT REMAINS HIGH AND SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE REGION THAT INCLUDES THE BLUE/WALLOWA MTNS ALONG WITH THE JOHN
DAY HIGHLANDS WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. IN
ADDITION SOME MODIFICATIONS WERE DONE TO AFTN TEMPS AND THE PRESENT
SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS. IT WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS...BUT CIGS WILL BE 3500-8000 FEET AGL AND THERE MAY BE
PERIODS OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  WEB CAMS NEAR KRDM
AND KBDN ARE SHOWING LOW LYING SCUD CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 1500
FEET.  TOWERING CUMULUS AND/OR CB CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES...AND THERE MAY BE IN CLOUD LIGHTNING OR CTG
LIGHTNING. WINDS WILL HAVE A WESTERLY COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON AT 5-
15 KT...EXCEPT 15 TO 25 KT AT KDLS.  WISTER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE
AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE TODAY.
INCREASING WEST FLOW FROM THE GORGE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL OREGON WILL
INCREASINGLY LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THESE AREAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORM MOTION WILL
BE RELATIVELY SLOW AND DECENT RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
FROM THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE MAIN SHOWER AND STORM FOCUS LOOKS TO BE
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN ZONES WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
COVERING THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS NORTH TO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS
AND NORTHEAST TO WALLOWA COUNTY. A WEAK LOW LOOKS TO SLIDE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AS A RESULT A DEFORMATION
PRECIP BAND MAY DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW. AS SUCH WILL KEEP
40-60 PERCENT POPS GOING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON INTO
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL OREGON TONIGHT. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY. THUS THE AIR MASS OVER THE
REGION WILL BECOME A BIT DRIER, LIMITING THE AREAS TO BE AFFECTED BY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS
TIME EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WASHINGTON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN ZONES. 90

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN OVERALL DRYING TREND WILL
OCCUR ON SUNDAY WITH NWLY FLOW REGIME BECOMING AT LEAST BRIEFLY
ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR EAST AND ALONG THE WASHINGTON
CASCADE EAST SLOPES. ON MONDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO WASHINGTON AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND WASHINGTON CASCADES.
FROM TUESDAY ONWARD THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIVERGE ON THE HANDLING
OF THE UPPER LOW. THE GFS MEANDERS THE LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA
KEEPING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEREAS THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW OUT AND
REPLACES IT WITH DRY NW FLOW. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED THIS FORECAST
UPDATE TOWARD THE GFS WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN CONTINUITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS UPPER 70S TO MID 80S LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH 60S TO LOWER
70S MOUNTAINS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  74  54  73  51 /  50  40  40  20
ALW  76  56  75  55 /  50  50  30  20
PSC  83  58  80  54 /  40  40  30  10
YKM  78  59  79  55 /  60  40  40  20
HRI  80  57  78  53 /  50  40  30  10
ELN  79  56  78  54 /  60  40  40  20
RDM  68  44  68  39 /  40  20  20  10
LGD  69  54  68  50 /  80  60  40  30
GCD  68  49  69  45 /  80  60  30  20
DLS  76  57  70  54 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ORZ049-050-502-503-
     505-506.

WA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WAZ030.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/85




000
FXUS66 KPDT 221735 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1035 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RAP AROUND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER CALIFORNIA AND INTO OUR AREA. COMBINING THIS WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. PWAT REMAINS HIGH AND SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE REGION THAT INCLUDES THE BLUE/WALLOWA MTNS ALONG WITH THE JOHN
DAY HIGHLANDS WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. IN
ADDITION SOME MODIFICATIONS WERE DONE TO AFTN TEMPS AND THE PRESENT
SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS. IT WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS...BUT CIGS WILL BE 3500-8000 FEET AGL AND THERE MAY BE
PERIODS OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  WEB CAMS NEAR KRDM
AND KBDN ARE SHOWING LOW LYING SCUD CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 1500
FEET.  TOWERING CUMULUS AND/OR CB CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES...AND THERE MAY BE IN CLOUD LIGHTNING OR CTG
LIGHTNING. WINDS WILL HAVE A WESTERLY COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON AT 5-
15 KT...EXCEPT 15 TO 25 KT AT KDLS.  WISTER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE
AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE TODAY.
INCREASING WEST FLOW FROM THE GORGE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL OREGON WILL
INCREASINGLY LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THESE AREAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORM MOTION WILL
BE RELATIVELY SLOW AND DECENT RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
FROM THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE MAIN SHOWER AND STORM FOCUS LOOKS TO BE
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN ZONES WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
COVERING THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS NORTH TO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS
AND NORTHEAST TO WALLOWA COUNTY. A WEAK LOW LOOKS TO SLIDE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AS A RESULT A DEFORMATION
PRECIP BAND MAY DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW. AS SUCH WILL KEEP
40-60 PERCENT POPS GOING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON INTO
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL OREGON TONIGHT. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY. THUS THE AIR MASS OVER THE
REGION WILL BECOME A BIT DRIER, LIMITING THE AREAS TO BE AFFECTED BY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS
TIME EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WASHINGTON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN ZONES. 90

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN OVERALL DRYING TREND WILL
OCCUR ON SUNDAY WITH NWLY FLOW REGIME BECOMING AT LEAST BRIEFLY
ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR EAST AND ALONG THE WASHINGTON
CASCADE EAST SLOPES. ON MONDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO WASHINGTON AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND WASHINGTON CASCADES.
FROM TUESDAY ONWARD THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIVERGE ON THE HANDLING
OF THE UPPER LOW. THE GFS MEANDERS THE LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA
KEEPING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEREAS THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW OUT AND
REPLACES IT WITH DRY NW FLOW. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED THIS FORECAST
UPDATE TOWARD THE GFS WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN CONTINUITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS UPPER 70S TO MID 80S LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH 60S TO LOWER
70S MOUNTAINS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  74  54  73  51 /  50  40  40  20
ALW  76  56  75  55 /  50  50  30  20
PSC  83  58  80  54 /  40  40  30  10
YKM  78  59  79  55 /  60  40  40  20
HRI  80  57  78  53 /  50  40  30  10
ELN  79  56  78  54 /  60  40  40  20
RDM  68  44  68  39 /  40  20  20  10
LGD  69  54  68  50 /  80  60  40  30
GCD  68  49  69  45 /  80  60  30  20
DLS  76  57  70  54 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ORZ049-050-502-503-
     505-506.

WA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WAZ030.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/85





000
FXUS66 KPDT 221541 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
835 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RAP AROUND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER CALIFORNIA AND INTO OUR AREA. COMBINING THIS WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. PWAT REMAINS HIGH AND SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE REGION THAT INCLUDES THE BLUE/WALLOWA MTNS ALONG WITH THE JOHN
DAY HIGHLANDS WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. IN
ADDITION SOME MODIFICATIONS WERE DONE TO AFTN TEMPS AND THE PRESENT
SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

 &&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE
AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE TODAY.
INCREASING WEST FLOW FROM THE GORGE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL OREGON WILL
INCREASINGLY LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THESE AREAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORM MOTION WILL
BE RELATIVELY SLOW AND DECENT RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
FROM THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE MAIN SHOWER AND STORM FOCUS LOOKS TO BE
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN ZONES WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
COVERING THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS NORTH TO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS
AND NORTHEAST TO WALLOWA COUNTY. A WEAK LOW LOOKS TO SLIDE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AS A RESULT A DEFORMATION
PRECIP BAND MAY DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW. AS SUCH WILL KEEP
40-60 PERCENT POPS GOING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON INTO
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL OREGON TONIGHT. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY. THUS THE AIR MASS OVER THE
REGION WILL BECOME A BIT DRIER, LIMITING THE AREAS TO BE AFFECTED BY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS
TIME EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WASHINGTON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN ZONES. 90

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN OVERALL DRYING TREND WILL
OCCUR ON SUNDAY WITH NWLY FLOW REGIME BECOMING AT LEAST BRIEFLY
ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR EAST AND ALONG THE WASHINGTON
CASCADE EAST SLOPES. ON MONDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO WASHINGTON AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND WASHINGTON CASCADES.
FROM TUESDAY ONWARD THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIVERGE ON THE HANDLING
OF THE UPPER LOW. THE GFS MEANDERS THE LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA
KEEPING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEREAS THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW OUT AND
REPLACES IT WITH DRY NW FLOW. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED THIS FORECAST
UPDATE TOWARD THE GFS WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN CONTINUITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS UPPER 70S TO MID 80S LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH 60S TO LOWER
70S MOUNTAINS.

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND DRIFT WWD AGAIN TODAY STARTING
AROUND 20Z. LIGHTNING MAY BE A BIT LESS THAN ON THURSDAY. FOR NOW
WILL USE VCSH WHICH CAN BE FINE TUNED WITH VCTS IF NECESSARY LATER
THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL BE 5-8K FEET AGL WITH MID
CLOUD ABOVE. WINDS WILL HAVE A WESTERLY COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON AT
5-15 KT...EXCEPT 15 TO 25 KT AT KDLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  74  54  73  51 /  50  40  40  20
ALW  76  56  75  55 /  50  50  30  20
PSC  83  58  80  54 /  40  40  30  10
YKM  78  59  79  55 /  60  40  40  20
HRI  80  57  78  53 /  50  40  30  10
ELN  79  56  78  54 /  60  40  40  20
RDM  68  44  68  39 /  40  20  20  10
LGD  69  54  68  50 /  80  60  40  30
GCD  68  49  69  45 /  80  60  30  20
DLS  76  57  70  54 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ORZ049-050-502-503-
     505-506.

WA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WAZ030.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/





000
FXUS66 KPDT 221541 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
835 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RAP AROUND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER CALIFORNIA AND INTO OUR AREA. COMBINING THIS WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. PWAT REMAINS HIGH AND SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE REGION THAT INCLUDES THE BLUE/WALLOWA MTNS ALONG WITH THE JOHN
DAY HIGHLANDS WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. IN
ADDITION SOME MODIFICATIONS WERE DONE TO AFTN TEMPS AND THE PRESENT
SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

 &&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE
AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE TODAY.
INCREASING WEST FLOW FROM THE GORGE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL OREGON WILL
INCREASINGLY LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THESE AREAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORM MOTION WILL
BE RELATIVELY SLOW AND DECENT RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
FROM THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE MAIN SHOWER AND STORM FOCUS LOOKS TO BE
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN ZONES WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
COVERING THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS NORTH TO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS
AND NORTHEAST TO WALLOWA COUNTY. A WEAK LOW LOOKS TO SLIDE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AS A RESULT A DEFORMATION
PRECIP BAND MAY DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW. AS SUCH WILL KEEP
40-60 PERCENT POPS GOING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON INTO
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL OREGON TONIGHT. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY. THUS THE AIR MASS OVER THE
REGION WILL BECOME A BIT DRIER, LIMITING THE AREAS TO BE AFFECTED BY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS
TIME EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WASHINGTON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN ZONES. 90

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN OVERALL DRYING TREND WILL
OCCUR ON SUNDAY WITH NWLY FLOW REGIME BECOMING AT LEAST BRIEFLY
ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR EAST AND ALONG THE WASHINGTON
CASCADE EAST SLOPES. ON MONDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO WASHINGTON AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND WASHINGTON CASCADES.
FROM TUESDAY ONWARD THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIVERGE ON THE HANDLING
OF THE UPPER LOW. THE GFS MEANDERS THE LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA
KEEPING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEREAS THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW OUT AND
REPLACES IT WITH DRY NW FLOW. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED THIS FORECAST
UPDATE TOWARD THE GFS WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN CONTINUITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS UPPER 70S TO MID 80S LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH 60S TO LOWER
70S MOUNTAINS.

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND DRIFT WWD AGAIN TODAY STARTING
AROUND 20Z. LIGHTNING MAY BE A BIT LESS THAN ON THURSDAY. FOR NOW
WILL USE VCSH WHICH CAN BE FINE TUNED WITH VCTS IF NECESSARY LATER
THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL BE 5-8K FEET AGL WITH MID
CLOUD ABOVE. WINDS WILL HAVE A WESTERLY COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON AT
5-15 KT...EXCEPT 15 TO 25 KT AT KDLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  74  54  73  51 /  50  40  40  20
ALW  76  56  75  55 /  50  50  30  20
PSC  83  58  80  54 /  40  40  30  10
YKM  78  59  79  55 /  60  40  40  20
HRI  80  57  78  53 /  50  40  30  10
ELN  79  56  78  54 /  60  40  40  20
RDM  68  44  68  39 /  40  20  20  10
LGD  69  54  68  50 /  80  60  40  30
GCD  68  49  69  45 /  80  60  30  20
DLS  76  57  70  54 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ORZ049-050-502-503-
     505-506.

WA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WAZ030.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/




000
FXUS66 KPDT 221541 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
835 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RAP AROUND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER CALIFORNIA AND INTO OUR AREA. COMBINING THIS WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. PWAT REMAINS HIGH AND SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE REGION THAT INCLUDES THE BLUE/WALLOWA MTNS ALONG WITH THE JOHN
DAY HIGHLANDS WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. IN
ADDITION SOME MODIFICATIONS WERE DONE TO AFTN TEMPS AND THE PRESENT
SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

 &&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE
AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE TODAY.
INCREASING WEST FLOW FROM THE GORGE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL OREGON WILL
INCREASINGLY LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THESE AREAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORM MOTION WILL
BE RELATIVELY SLOW AND DECENT RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
FROM THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE MAIN SHOWER AND STORM FOCUS LOOKS TO BE
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN ZONES WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
COVERING THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS NORTH TO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS
AND NORTHEAST TO WALLOWA COUNTY. A WEAK LOW LOOKS TO SLIDE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AS A RESULT A DEFORMATION
PRECIP BAND MAY DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW. AS SUCH WILL KEEP
40-60 PERCENT POPS GOING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON INTO
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL OREGON TONIGHT. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY. THUS THE AIR MASS OVER THE
REGION WILL BECOME A BIT DRIER, LIMITING THE AREAS TO BE AFFECTED BY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS
TIME EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WASHINGTON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN ZONES. 90

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN OVERALL DRYING TREND WILL
OCCUR ON SUNDAY WITH NWLY FLOW REGIME BECOMING AT LEAST BRIEFLY
ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR EAST AND ALONG THE WASHINGTON
CASCADE EAST SLOPES. ON MONDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO WASHINGTON AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND WASHINGTON CASCADES.
FROM TUESDAY ONWARD THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIVERGE ON THE HANDLING
OF THE UPPER LOW. THE GFS MEANDERS THE LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA
KEEPING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEREAS THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW OUT AND
REPLACES IT WITH DRY NW FLOW. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED THIS FORECAST
UPDATE TOWARD THE GFS WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN CONTINUITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS UPPER 70S TO MID 80S LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH 60S TO LOWER
70S MOUNTAINS.

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND DRIFT WWD AGAIN TODAY STARTING
AROUND 20Z. LIGHTNING MAY BE A BIT LESS THAN ON THURSDAY. FOR NOW
WILL USE VCSH WHICH CAN BE FINE TUNED WITH VCTS IF NECESSARY LATER
THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL BE 5-8K FEET AGL WITH MID
CLOUD ABOVE. WINDS WILL HAVE A WESTERLY COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON AT
5-15 KT...EXCEPT 15 TO 25 KT AT KDLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  74  54  73  51 /  50  40  40  20
ALW  76  56  75  55 /  50  50  30  20
PSC  83  58  80  54 /  40  40  30  10
YKM  78  59  79  55 /  60  40  40  20
HRI  80  57  78  53 /  50  40  30  10
ELN  79  56  78  54 /  60  40  40  20
RDM  68  44  68  39 /  40  20  20  10
LGD  69  54  68  50 /  80  60  40  30
GCD  68  49  69  45 /  80  60  30  20
DLS  76  57  70  54 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ORZ049-050-502-503-
     505-506.

WA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WAZ030.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/





000
FXUS66 KPDT 221541 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
835 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RAP AROUND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER CALIFORNIA AND INTO OUR AREA. COMBINING THIS WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. PWAT REMAINS HIGH AND SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE REGION THAT INCLUDES THE BLUE/WALLOWA MTNS ALONG WITH THE JOHN
DAY HIGHLANDS WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. IN
ADDITION SOME MODIFICATIONS WERE DONE TO AFTN TEMPS AND THE PRESENT
SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

 &&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE
AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE TODAY.
INCREASING WEST FLOW FROM THE GORGE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL OREGON WILL
INCREASINGLY LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THESE AREAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORM MOTION WILL
BE RELATIVELY SLOW AND DECENT RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
FROM THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE MAIN SHOWER AND STORM FOCUS LOOKS TO BE
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN ZONES WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
COVERING THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS NORTH TO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS
AND NORTHEAST TO WALLOWA COUNTY. A WEAK LOW LOOKS TO SLIDE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AS A RESULT A DEFORMATION
PRECIP BAND MAY DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW. AS SUCH WILL KEEP
40-60 PERCENT POPS GOING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON INTO
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL OREGON TONIGHT. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY. THUS THE AIR MASS OVER THE
REGION WILL BECOME A BIT DRIER, LIMITING THE AREAS TO BE AFFECTED BY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS
TIME EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WASHINGTON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN ZONES. 90

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN OVERALL DRYING TREND WILL
OCCUR ON SUNDAY WITH NWLY FLOW REGIME BECOMING AT LEAST BRIEFLY
ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR EAST AND ALONG THE WASHINGTON
CASCADE EAST SLOPES. ON MONDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO WASHINGTON AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND WASHINGTON CASCADES.
FROM TUESDAY ONWARD THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIVERGE ON THE HANDLING
OF THE UPPER LOW. THE GFS MEANDERS THE LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA
KEEPING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEREAS THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW OUT AND
REPLACES IT WITH DRY NW FLOW. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED THIS FORECAST
UPDATE TOWARD THE GFS WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN CONTINUITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS UPPER 70S TO MID 80S LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH 60S TO LOWER
70S MOUNTAINS.

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND DRIFT WWD AGAIN TODAY STARTING
AROUND 20Z. LIGHTNING MAY BE A BIT LESS THAN ON THURSDAY. FOR NOW
WILL USE VCSH WHICH CAN BE FINE TUNED WITH VCTS IF NECESSARY LATER
THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL BE 5-8K FEET AGL WITH MID
CLOUD ABOVE. WINDS WILL HAVE A WESTERLY COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON AT
5-15 KT...EXCEPT 15 TO 25 KT AT KDLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  74  54  73  51 /  50  40  40  20
ALW  76  56  75  55 /  50  50  30  20
PSC  83  58  80  54 /  40  40  30  10
YKM  78  59  79  55 /  60  40  40  20
HRI  80  57  78  53 /  50  40  30  10
ELN  79  56  78  54 /  60  40  40  20
RDM  68  44  68  39 /  40  20  20  10
LGD  69  54  68  50 /  80  60  40  30
GCD  68  49  69  45 /  80  60  30  20
DLS  76  57  70  54 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ORZ049-050-502-503-
     505-506.

WA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WAZ030.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/




000
FXUS66 KPDT 221104 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE
AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE TODAY.
INCREASING WEST FLOW FROM THE GORGE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL OREGON WILL
INCREASINGLY LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THESE AREAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORM MOTION WILL
BE RELATIVELY SLOW AND DECENT RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
FROM THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE MAIN SHOWER AND STORM FOCUS LOOKS TO BE
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN ZONES WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
COVERING THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS NORTH TO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS
AND NORTHEAST TO WALLOWA COUNTY. A WEAK LOW LOOKS TO SLIDE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AS A RESULT A DEFORMATION
PRECIP BAND MAY DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW. AS SUCH WILL KEEP
40-60 PERCENT POPS GOING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON INTO
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL OREGON TONIGHT. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY. THUS THE AIR MASS OVER THE
REGION WILL BECOME A BIT DRIER, LIMITING THE AREAS TO BE AFFECTED BY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS
TIME EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WASHINGTON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN ZONES. 90

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN OVERALL DRYING TREND WILL
OCCUR ON SUNDAY WITH NWLY FLOW REGIME BECOMING AT LEAST BRIEFLY
ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR EAST AND ALONG THE WASHINGTON
CASCADE EAST SLOPES. ON MONDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO WASHINGTON AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND WASHINGTON CASCADES.
FROM TUESDAY ONWARD THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIVERGE ON THE HANDLING
OF THE UPPER LOW. THE GFS MEANDERS THE LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA
KEEPING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEREAS THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW OUT AND
REPLACES IT WITH DRY NW FLOW. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED THIS FORECAST
UPDATE TOWARD THE GFS WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN CONTINUITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS UPPER 70S TO MID 80S LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH 60S TO LOWER
70S MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND DRIFT WWD AGAIN TODAY STARTING
AROUND 20Z. LIGHTNING MAY BE A BIT LESS THAN ON THURSDAY. FOR NOW
WILL USE VCSH WHICH CAN BE FINE TUNED WITH VCTS IF NECESSARY LATER
THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL BE 5-8K FEET AGL WITH MID
CLOUD ABOVE. WINDS WILL HAVE A WESTERLY COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON AT
5-15 KT...EXCEPT 15 TO 25 KT AT KDLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  76  54  73  51 /  50  40  40  20
ALW  77  56  75  55 /  50  50  30  20
PSC  84  58  80  54 /  40  40  30  10
YKM  81  57  81  53 /  60  40  40  20
HRI  81  57  78  53 /  50  40  30  10
ELN  80  56  78  54 /  60  40  40  20
RDM  69  44  68  39 /  40  20  20  10
LGD  70  54  68  50 /  80  60  40  30
GCD  69  49  69  45 /  80  60  30  20
DLS  77  57  70  54 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ORZ049-050-502-503-
     505-506.

WA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WAZ030.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/78/78





000
FXUS66 KPDT 221104 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE
AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE TODAY.
INCREASING WEST FLOW FROM THE GORGE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL OREGON WILL
INCREASINGLY LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THESE AREAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORM MOTION WILL
BE RELATIVELY SLOW AND DECENT RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
FROM THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE MAIN SHOWER AND STORM FOCUS LOOKS TO BE
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN ZONES WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
COVERING THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS NORTH TO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS
AND NORTHEAST TO WALLOWA COUNTY. A WEAK LOW LOOKS TO SLIDE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AS A RESULT A DEFORMATION
PRECIP BAND MAY DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW. AS SUCH WILL KEEP
40-60 PERCENT POPS GOING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON INTO
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL OREGON TONIGHT. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY. THUS THE AIR MASS OVER THE
REGION WILL BECOME A BIT DRIER, LIMITING THE AREAS TO BE AFFECTED BY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS
TIME EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WASHINGTON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN ZONES. 90

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN OVERALL DRYING TREND WILL
OCCUR ON SUNDAY WITH NWLY FLOW REGIME BECOMING AT LEAST BRIEFLY
ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR EAST AND ALONG THE WASHINGTON
CASCADE EAST SLOPES. ON MONDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO WASHINGTON AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND WASHINGTON CASCADES.
FROM TUESDAY ONWARD THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIVERGE ON THE HANDLING
OF THE UPPER LOW. THE GFS MEANDERS THE LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA
KEEPING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEREAS THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW OUT AND
REPLACES IT WITH DRY NW FLOW. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED THIS FORECAST
UPDATE TOWARD THE GFS WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN CONTINUITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS UPPER 70S TO MID 80S LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH 60S TO LOWER
70S MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND DRIFT WWD AGAIN TODAY STARTING
AROUND 20Z. LIGHTNING MAY BE A BIT LESS THAN ON THURSDAY. FOR NOW
WILL USE VCSH WHICH CAN BE FINE TUNED WITH VCTS IF NECESSARY LATER
THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL BE 5-8K FEET AGL WITH MID
CLOUD ABOVE. WINDS WILL HAVE A WESTERLY COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON AT
5-15 KT...EXCEPT 15 TO 25 KT AT KDLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  76  54  73  51 /  50  40  40  20
ALW  77  56  75  55 /  50  50  30  20
PSC  84  58  80  54 /  40  40  30  10
YKM  81  57  81  53 /  60  40  40  20
HRI  81  57  78  53 /  50  40  30  10
ELN  80  56  78  54 /  60  40  40  20
RDM  69  44  68  39 /  40  20  20  10
LGD  70  54  68  50 /  80  60  40  30
GCD  69  49  69  45 /  80  60  30  20
DLS  77  57  70  54 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ORZ049-050-502-503-
     505-506.

WA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WAZ030.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/78/78




000
FXUS66 KPDT 221002
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE
AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE TODAY.
INCREASING WEST FLOW FROM THE GORGE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL OREGON WILL
INCREASINGLY LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THESE AREAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORM MOTION WILL
BE RELATIVELY SLOW AND DECENT RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
FROM THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE MAIN SHOWER AND STORM FOCUS LOOKS TO BE
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN ZONES WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
COVERING THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS NORTH TO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS
AND NORTHEAST TO WALLOWA COUNTY. A WEAK LOW LOOKS TO SLIDE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AS A RESULT A DEFORMATION
PRECIP BAND MAY DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW. AS SUCH WILL KEEP
40-60 PERCENT POPS GOING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON INTO
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL OREGON TONIGHT. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY. THUS THE AIR MASS OVER THE
REGION WILL BECOME A BIT DRIER, LIMITING THE AREAS TO BE AFFECTED BY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS
TIME EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WASHINGTON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN ZONES. 90

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN OVERALL DRYING TREND WILL
OCCUR ON SUNDAY WITH NWLY FLOW REGIME BECOMING AT LEAST BRIEFLY
ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR EAST AND ALONG THE WASHINGTON
CASCADE EAST SLOPES. ON MONDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO WASHINGTON AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND WASHINGTON CASCADES.
FROM TUESDAY ONWARD THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIVERGE ON THE HANDLING
OF THE UPPER LOW. THE GFS MEANDERS THE LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA
KEEPING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEREAS THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW OUT AND
REPLACES IT WITH DRY NW FLOW. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED THIS FORECAST
UPDATE TOWARD THE GFS WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN CONTINUITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS UPPER 70S TO MID 80S LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH 60S TO LOWER
70S MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND DRIFT WWD AGAIN TODAY STARTING
AROUND 20Z. LIGHTNING MAY BE A BIT LESS THAN ON THURSDAY. FOR NOW
WILL USE VCSH WHICH CAN BE FINE TUNED WITH VCTS IF NECESSARY LATER
THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL BE 5-8K FEET AGL WITH MID
CLOUD ABOVE. WINDS WILL HAVE A WESTERLY COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON AT
5-15 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  76  54  73  51 /  50  40  40  20
ALW  77  56  75  55 /  50  50  30  20
PSC  84  58  80  54 /  40  40  30  10
YKM  81  57  81  53 /  60  40  40  20
HRI  81  57  78  53 /  50  40  30  10
ELN  80  56  78  54 /  60  40  40  20
RDM  69  44  68  39 /  40  20  20  10
LGD  70  54  68  50 /  80  60  40  30
GCD  69  49  69  45 /  80  60  30  20
DLS  77  57  70  54 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ORZ049-050-502-503-
     505-506.

WA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WAZ030.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/78/78





000
FXUS66 KPDT 220550 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1045 PM PDT THU MAY 21 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED THROUGH
THE AREA DROPPING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN SHORT TIMES. MANY AREAS
REPORTED OVER 1 INCH RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR. MULTIPLE FLASH
FLOOD WARINGS WERE ISSUED. THE STORMS HAVE DECREASED IN INTENSITY
BUT A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT IN THE UPPER YAKIMA
VALLEY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE OCHOCO JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS TO TO
BLUE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE
FOR THIS AREA UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. COONFIELD

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXCEPT AT KRDM AND KBDN. IFR CIGS AND MVFRPOSSIBLE
UNTIL 15Z DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM HEAVY RAIN. MOIST UNSTABLE
AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AFTER 20Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR THE THUNDERSTORMS.  CONFIDENCE TO PUT
THUNDERSTORMS IN SPECIFIC LOCATIONS IS LOW.   76

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM PDT THU MAY 21 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.  BUSY SHIFT TODAY AS WE FOCUS
ON THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS WELL AS THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND FORECAST.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER NORTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON.  CONVECTION IS A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...AND RAINFALL
RATES NEAR 0.5 INCH PER HOUR HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED.  THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WAS EXTENDED TO INCLUDE THE NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS OF
WASHINGTON.  THE MAIN UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT AND WILL APPROACH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
LATE FRIDAY.  MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY WILL
BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE JOHN DAY-OCHOCO HIGHLANDS AND
FROM THE BLUE MOUNTAINS EAST TO THE IDAHO BORDER.  THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE OR CASCADES WILL END TONIGHT AS A
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STABILIZES THE AIR MASS IN THIS AREA ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST MAY ALLOW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WA
CASCADES...AND EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND A WEAK STEERING FLOW MAY
RESULT IN SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF MT. ADAMS.  THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED BY FUTURE SHIFTS TO DETERMINE IF A WATCH IS
NEEDED.  THE LATEST GFS SEEMS TOO STRONG WITH THIS UPSTREAM LOW AS
IT TRACKS ACROSS WA/OR ON SATURDAY COMPARED TO THE NAM AND ECWMF.
THIS HAS A STRONG INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
WILL CONSIDER THE GFS AS AN OUTLIER WITH THE STRONGER LOW AND MORE
BULLISH QPF...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE AND LIGHT
QPF AMOUNTS.  ON SUNDAY...THE NEXT UPPER LOW OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN ZONES BUT DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH.  WISTER

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.  UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SOUTH FROM CANADA
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE GFS MODEL KEEPS THE LOW OVER
THE AREA THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WHILE THE ECMWF KICKS THE LOW EAST BY
LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THUS WILL LITTLE CONFIDENCE...I HAVE
KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHT WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  57  75  53  72 /  50  50  50  60
ALW  56  78  56  74 /  50  50  50  50
PSC  60  83  59  80 /  40  50  50  30
YKM  59  78  58  78 /  40  70  40  40
HRI  59  81  59  78 /  30  50  50  40
ELN  56  76  54  75 /  40  70  40  40
RDM  51  68  42  66 /  70  50  20  30
LGD  52  69  54  67 /  50  80  50  50
GCD  48  69  51  66 /  70  80  60  40
DLS  59  76  57  72 /  50  40  20  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR ORZ049-050-502-503-
     505-506.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ509.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ510-511.

WA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR WAZ030.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/76/76





000
FXUS66 KPDT 220550 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1045 PM PDT THU MAY 21 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED THROUGH
THE AREA DROPPING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN SHORT TIMES. MANY AREAS
REPORTED OVER 1 INCH RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR. MULTIPLE FLASH
FLOOD WARINGS WERE ISSUED. THE STORMS HAVE DECREASED IN INTENSITY
BUT A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT IN THE UPPER YAKIMA
VALLEY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE OCHOCO JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS TO TO
BLUE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE
FOR THIS AREA UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. COONFIELD

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXCEPT AT KRDM AND KBDN. IFR CIGS AND MVFRPOSSIBLE
UNTIL 15Z DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM HEAVY RAIN. MOIST UNSTABLE
AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AFTER 20Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR THE THUNDERSTORMS.  CONFIDENCE TO PUT
THUNDERSTORMS IN SPECIFIC LOCATIONS IS LOW.   76

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM PDT THU MAY 21 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.  BUSY SHIFT TODAY AS WE FOCUS
ON THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS WELL AS THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND FORECAST.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER NORTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON.  CONVECTION IS A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...AND RAINFALL
RATES NEAR 0.5 INCH PER HOUR HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED.  THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WAS EXTENDED TO INCLUDE THE NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS OF
WASHINGTON.  THE MAIN UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT AND WILL APPROACH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
LATE FRIDAY.  MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY WILL
BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE JOHN DAY-OCHOCO HIGHLANDS AND
FROM THE BLUE MOUNTAINS EAST TO THE IDAHO BORDER.  THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE OR CASCADES WILL END TONIGHT AS A
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STABILIZES THE AIR MASS IN THIS AREA ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST MAY ALLOW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WA
CASCADES...AND EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND A WEAK STEERING FLOW MAY
RESULT IN SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF MT. ADAMS.  THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED BY FUTURE SHIFTS TO DETERMINE IF A WATCH IS
NEEDED.  THE LATEST GFS SEEMS TOO STRONG WITH THIS UPSTREAM LOW AS
IT TRACKS ACROSS WA/OR ON SATURDAY COMPARED TO THE NAM AND ECWMF.
THIS HAS A STRONG INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
WILL CONSIDER THE GFS AS AN OUTLIER WITH THE STRONGER LOW AND MORE
BULLISH QPF...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE AND LIGHT
QPF AMOUNTS.  ON SUNDAY...THE NEXT UPPER LOW OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN ZONES BUT DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH.  WISTER

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.  UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SOUTH FROM CANADA
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE GFS MODEL KEEPS THE LOW OVER
THE AREA THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WHILE THE ECMWF KICKS THE LOW EAST BY
LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THUS WILL LITTLE CONFIDENCE...I HAVE
KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHT WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  57  75  53  72 /  50  50  50  60
ALW  56  78  56  74 /  50  50  50  50
PSC  60  83  59  80 /  40  50  50  30
YKM  59  78  58  78 /  40  70  40  40
HRI  59  81  59  78 /  30  50  50  40
ELN  56  76  54  75 /  40  70  40  40
RDM  51  68  42  66 /  70  50  20  30
LGD  52  69  54  67 /  50  80  50  50
GCD  48  69  51  66 /  70  80  60  40
DLS  59  76  57  72 /  50  40  20  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR ORZ049-050-502-503-
     505-506.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ509.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ510-511.

WA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR WAZ030.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/76/76




000
FXUS66 KPDT 220550 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1045 PM PDT THU MAY 21 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED THROUGH
THE AREA DROPPING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN SHORT TIMES. MANY AREAS
REPORTED OVER 1 INCH RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR. MULTIPLE FLASH
FLOOD WARINGS WERE ISSUED. THE STORMS HAVE DECREASED IN INTENSITY
BUT A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT IN THE UPPER YAKIMA
VALLEY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE OCHOCO JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS TO TO
BLUE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE
FOR THIS AREA UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. COONFIELD

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXCEPT AT KRDM AND KBDN. IFR CIGS AND MVFRPOSSIBLE
UNTIL 15Z DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM HEAVY RAIN. MOIST UNSTABLE
AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AFTER 20Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR THE THUNDERSTORMS.  CONFIDENCE TO PUT
THUNDERSTORMS IN SPECIFIC LOCATIONS IS LOW.   76

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM PDT THU MAY 21 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.  BUSY SHIFT TODAY AS WE FOCUS
ON THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS WELL AS THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND FORECAST.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER NORTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON.  CONVECTION IS A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...AND RAINFALL
RATES NEAR 0.5 INCH PER HOUR HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED.  THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WAS EXTENDED TO INCLUDE THE NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS OF
WASHINGTON.  THE MAIN UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT AND WILL APPROACH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
LATE FRIDAY.  MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY WILL
BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE JOHN DAY-OCHOCO HIGHLANDS AND
FROM THE BLUE MOUNTAINS EAST TO THE IDAHO BORDER.  THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE OR CASCADES WILL END TONIGHT AS A
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STABILIZES THE AIR MASS IN THIS AREA ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST MAY ALLOW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WA
CASCADES...AND EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND A WEAK STEERING FLOW MAY
RESULT IN SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF MT. ADAMS.  THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED BY FUTURE SHIFTS TO DETERMINE IF A WATCH IS
NEEDED.  THE LATEST GFS SEEMS TOO STRONG WITH THIS UPSTREAM LOW AS
IT TRACKS ACROSS WA/OR ON SATURDAY COMPARED TO THE NAM AND ECWMF.
THIS HAS A STRONG INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
WILL CONSIDER THE GFS AS AN OUTLIER WITH THE STRONGER LOW AND MORE
BULLISH QPF...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE AND LIGHT
QPF AMOUNTS.  ON SUNDAY...THE NEXT UPPER LOW OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN ZONES BUT DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH.  WISTER

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.  UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SOUTH FROM CANADA
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE GFS MODEL KEEPS THE LOW OVER
THE AREA THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WHILE THE ECMWF KICKS THE LOW EAST BY
LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THUS WILL LITTLE CONFIDENCE...I HAVE
KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHT WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  57  75  53  72 /  50  50  50  60
ALW  56  78  56  74 /  50  50  50  50
PSC  60  83  59  80 /  40  50  50  30
YKM  59  78  58  78 /  40  70  40  40
HRI  59  81  59  78 /  30  50  50  40
ELN  56  76  54  75 /  40  70  40  40
RDM  51  68  42  66 /  70  50  20  30
LGD  52  69  54  67 /  50  80  50  50
GCD  48  69  51  66 /  70  80  60  40
DLS  59  76  57  72 /  50  40  20  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR ORZ049-050-502-503-
     505-506.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ509.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ510-511.

WA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR WAZ030.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/76/76




000
FXUS66 KPDT 220550 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1045 PM PDT THU MAY 21 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED THROUGH
THE AREA DROPPING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN SHORT TIMES. MANY AREAS
REPORTED OVER 1 INCH RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR. MULTIPLE FLASH
FLOOD WARINGS WERE ISSUED. THE STORMS HAVE DECREASED IN INTENSITY
BUT A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT IN THE UPPER YAKIMA
VALLEY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE OCHOCO JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS TO TO
BLUE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE
FOR THIS AREA UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. COONFIELD

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXCEPT AT KRDM AND KBDN. IFR CIGS AND MVFRPOSSIBLE
UNTIL 15Z DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM HEAVY RAIN. MOIST UNSTABLE
AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AFTER 20Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR THE THUNDERSTORMS.  CONFIDENCE TO PUT
THUNDERSTORMS IN SPECIFIC LOCATIONS IS LOW.   76

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM PDT THU MAY 21 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.  BUSY SHIFT TODAY AS WE FOCUS
ON THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS WELL AS THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND FORECAST.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER NORTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON.  CONVECTION IS A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...AND RAINFALL
RATES NEAR 0.5 INCH PER HOUR HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED.  THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WAS EXTENDED TO INCLUDE THE NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS OF
WASHINGTON.  THE MAIN UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT AND WILL APPROACH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
LATE FRIDAY.  MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY WILL
BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE JOHN DAY-OCHOCO HIGHLANDS AND
FROM THE BLUE MOUNTAINS EAST TO THE IDAHO BORDER.  THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE OR CASCADES WILL END TONIGHT AS A
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STABILIZES THE AIR MASS IN THIS AREA ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST MAY ALLOW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WA
CASCADES...AND EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND A WEAK STEERING FLOW MAY
RESULT IN SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF MT. ADAMS.  THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED BY FUTURE SHIFTS TO DETERMINE IF A WATCH IS
NEEDED.  THE LATEST GFS SEEMS TOO STRONG WITH THIS UPSTREAM LOW AS
IT TRACKS ACROSS WA/OR ON SATURDAY COMPARED TO THE NAM AND ECWMF.
THIS HAS A STRONG INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
WILL CONSIDER THE GFS AS AN OUTLIER WITH THE STRONGER LOW AND MORE
BULLISH QPF...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE AND LIGHT
QPF AMOUNTS.  ON SUNDAY...THE NEXT UPPER LOW OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN ZONES BUT DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH.  WISTER

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.  UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SOUTH FROM CANADA
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE GFS MODEL KEEPS THE LOW OVER
THE AREA THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WHILE THE ECMWF KICKS THE LOW EAST BY
LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THUS WILL LITTLE CONFIDENCE...I HAVE
KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHT WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  57  75  53  72 /  50  50  50  60
ALW  56  78  56  74 /  50  50  50  50
PSC  60  83  59  80 /  40  50  50  30
YKM  59  78  58  78 /  40  70  40  40
HRI  59  81  59  78 /  30  50  50  40
ELN  56  76  54  75 /  40  70  40  40
RDM  51  68  42  66 /  70  50  20  30
LGD  52  69  54  67 /  50  80  50  50
GCD  48  69  51  66 /  70  80  60  40
DLS  59  76  57  72 /  50  40  20  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR ORZ049-050-502-503-
     505-506.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ509.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ510-511.

WA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR WAZ030.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/76/76





000
FXUS66 KPDT 220350
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
850 PM PDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED THROUGH
THE AREA DROPPING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN SHORT TIMES. MANY AREAS
REPORTED OVER 1 INCH RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR. MULTIPLE FLASH
FLOOD WARINGS WERE ISSUED. THE STORMS HAVE DECREASED IN INTENSITY
BUT A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT IN THE UPPER YAKIMA
VALLEY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE OCHOCO JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS TO TO
BLUE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE
FOR THIS AREA UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. COONFIELD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM PDT THU MAY 21 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.  BUSY SHIFT TODAY AS WE FOCUS
ON THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS WELL AS THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND FORECAST.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER NORTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON.  CONVECTION IS A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...AND RAINFALL
RATES NEAR 0.5 INCH PER HOUR HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED.  THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WAS EXTENDED TO INCLUDE THE NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS OF
WASHINGTON.  THE MAIN UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT AND WILL APPROACH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
LATE FRIDAY.  MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY WILL
BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE JOHN DAY-OCHOCO HIGHLANDS AND
FROM THE BLUE MOUNTAINS EAST TO THE IDAHO BORDER.  THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE OR CASCADES WILL END TONIGHT AS A
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STABILIZES THE AIR MASS IN THIS AREA ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST MAY ALLOW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WA
CASCADES...AND EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND A WEAK STEERING FLOW MAY
RESULT IN SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF MT. ADAMS.  THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED BY FUTURE SHIFTS TO DETERMINE IF A WATCH IS
NEEDED.  THE LATEST GFS SEEMS TOO STRONG WITH THIS UPSTREAM LOW AS
IT TRACKS ACROSS WA/OR ON SATURDAY COMPARED TO THE NAM AND ECWMF.
THIS HAS A STRONG INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
WILL CONSIDER THE GFS AS AN OUTLIER WITH THE STRONGER LOW AND MORE
BULLISH QPF...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE AND LIGHT
QPF AMOUNTS.  ON SUNDAY...THE NEXT UPPER LOW OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN ZONES BUT DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH.  WISTER

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.  UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SOUTH FROM CANADA
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE GFS MODEL KEEPS THE LOW OVER
THE AREA THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WHILE THE ECMWF KICKS THE LOW EAST BY
LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THUS WILL LITTLE CONFIDENCE...I HAVE
KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHT WARMER THAN NORMAL.

AVIATION...00Z TAFS.  GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 04Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR THE THUNDERSTORMS.  CONFIDENCE TO PUT
THUNDERSTORMS IN SPECIFIC LOCATIONS IS LOW.  SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN FRIDAY AFTER
20Z.  93

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  57  75  53  72 /  50  50  50  60
ALW  56  78  56  74 /  50  50  50  50
PSC  60  83  59  80 /  40  50  50  30
YKM  59  78  58  78 /  40  70  40  40
HRI  59  81  59  78 /  30  50  50  40
ELN  56  76  54  75 /  40  70  40  40
RDM  51  68  42  66 /  70  50  20  30
LGD  52  69  54  67 /  50  80  50  50
GCD  48  69  51  66 /  70  80  60  40
DLS  59  76  57  72 /  50  40  20  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR ORZ049-050-502-503-
     505-506.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ509.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ510-511.

WA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR WAZ030.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/76/76




000
FXUS66 KPDT 220350
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
850 PM PDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED THROUGH
THE AREA DROPPING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN SHORT TIMES. MANY AREAS
REPORTED OVER 1 INCH RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR. MULTIPLE FLASH
FLOOD WARINGS WERE ISSUED. THE STORMS HAVE DECREASED IN INTENSITY
BUT A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT IN THE UPPER YAKIMA
VALLEY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE OCHOCO JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS TO TO
BLUE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE
FOR THIS AREA UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. COONFIELD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM PDT THU MAY 21 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.  BUSY SHIFT TODAY AS WE FOCUS
ON THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS WELL AS THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND FORECAST.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER NORTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON.  CONVECTION IS A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...AND RAINFALL
RATES NEAR 0.5 INCH PER HOUR HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED.  THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WAS EXTENDED TO INCLUDE THE NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS OF
WASHINGTON.  THE MAIN UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT AND WILL APPROACH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
LATE FRIDAY.  MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY WILL
BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE JOHN DAY-OCHOCO HIGHLANDS AND
FROM THE BLUE MOUNTAINS EAST TO THE IDAHO BORDER.  THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE OR CASCADES WILL END TONIGHT AS A
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STABILIZES THE AIR MASS IN THIS AREA ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST MAY ALLOW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WA
CASCADES...AND EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND A WEAK STEERING FLOW MAY
RESULT IN SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF MT. ADAMS.  THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED BY FUTURE SHIFTS TO DETERMINE IF A WATCH IS
NEEDED.  THE LATEST GFS SEEMS TOO STRONG WITH THIS UPSTREAM LOW AS
IT TRACKS ACROSS WA/OR ON SATURDAY COMPARED TO THE NAM AND ECWMF.
THIS HAS A STRONG INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
WILL CONSIDER THE GFS AS AN OUTLIER WITH THE STRONGER LOW AND MORE
BULLISH QPF...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE AND LIGHT
QPF AMOUNTS.  ON SUNDAY...THE NEXT UPPER LOW OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN ZONES BUT DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH.  WISTER

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.  UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SOUTH FROM CANADA
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE GFS MODEL KEEPS THE LOW OVER
THE AREA THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WHILE THE ECMWF KICKS THE LOW EAST BY
LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THUS WILL LITTLE CONFIDENCE...I HAVE
KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHT WARMER THAN NORMAL.

AVIATION...00Z TAFS.  GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 04Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR THE THUNDERSTORMS.  CONFIDENCE TO PUT
THUNDERSTORMS IN SPECIFIC LOCATIONS IS LOW.  SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN FRIDAY AFTER
20Z.  93

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  57  75  53  72 /  50  50  50  60
ALW  56  78  56  74 /  50  50  50  50
PSC  60  83  59  80 /  40  50  50  30
YKM  59  78  58  78 /  40  70  40  40
HRI  59  81  59  78 /  30  50  50  40
ELN  56  76  54  75 /  40  70  40  40
RDM  51  68  42  66 /  70  50  20  30
LGD  52  69  54  67 /  50  80  50  50
GCD  48  69  51  66 /  70  80  60  40
DLS  59  76  57  72 /  50  40  20  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR ORZ049-050-502-503-
     505-506.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ509.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ510-511.

WA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR WAZ030.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/76/76





000
FXUS66 KPDT 212118
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
220 PM PDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.  BUSY SHIFT TODAY AS WE FOCUS
ON THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS WELL AS THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND FORECAST.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER NORTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON.  CONVECTION IS A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...AND RAINFALL
RATES NEAR 0.5 INCH PER HOUR HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED.  THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WAS EXTENDED TO INCLUDE THE NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS OF
WASHINGTON.  THE MAIN UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT AND WILL APPROACH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
LATE FRIDAY.  MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY WILL
BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE JOHN DAY-OCHOCO HIGHLANDS AND
FROM THE BLUE MOUNTAINS EAST TO THE IDAHO BORDER.  THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE OR CASCADES WILL END TONIGHT AS A
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STABILIZES THE AIR MASS IN THIS AREA ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST MAY ALLOW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WA
CASCADES...AND EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND A WEAK STEERING FLOW MAY
RESULT IN SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF MT. ADAMS.  THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED BY FUTURE SHIFTS TO DETERMINE IF A WATCH IS
NEEDED.  THE LATEST GFS SEEMS TOO STRONG WITH THIS UPSTREAM LOW AS
IT TRACKS ACROSS WA/OR ON SATURDAY COMPARED TO THE NAM AND ECWMF.
THIS HAS A STRONG INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
WILL CONSIDER THE GFS AS AN OUTLIER WITH THE STRONGER LOW AND MORE
BULLISH QPF...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE AND LIGHT
QPF AMOUNTS.  ON SUNDAY...THE NEXT UPPER LOW OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN ZONES BUT DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH.  WISTER

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.  UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SOUTH FROM CANADA
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE GFS MODEL KEEPS THE LOW OVER
THE AREA THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WHILE THE ECMWF KICKS THE LOW EAST BY
LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THUS WILL LITTLE CONFIDENCE...I HAVE
KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHT WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS.  GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 04Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR THE THUNDERSTORMS.  CONFIDENCE TO PUT
THUNDERSTORMS IN SPECIFIC LOCATIONS IS LOW.  SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN FRIDAY AFTER
20Z.  93

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  57  75  53  72 /  50  50  50  60
ALW  56  78  56  74 /  50  50  50  50
PSC  60  83  59  80 /  40  50  50  30
YKM  59  78  58  78 /  40  70  40  40
HRI  59  81  59  78 /  30  50  50  40
ELN  56  76  54  75 /  40  70  40  40
RDM  51  68  42  66 /  70  50  20  30
LGD  52  69  54  67 /  50  80  50  50
GCD  48  69  51  66 /  70  80  60  40
DLS  59  76  57  72 /  50  40  20  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR ORZ049-050-502-503-
     505-506.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ509.

WA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR WAZ030.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

85/93/93





000
FXUS66 KPDT 212118
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
220 PM PDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.  BUSY SHIFT TODAY AS WE FOCUS
ON THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS WELL AS THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND FORECAST.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER NORTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON.  CONVECTION IS A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...AND RAINFALL
RATES NEAR 0.5 INCH PER HOUR HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED.  THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WAS EXTENDED TO INCLUDE THE NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS OF
WASHINGTON.  THE MAIN UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT AND WILL APPROACH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
LATE FRIDAY.  MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY WILL
BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE JOHN DAY-OCHOCO HIGHLANDS AND
FROM THE BLUE MOUNTAINS EAST TO THE IDAHO BORDER.  THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE OR CASCADES WILL END TONIGHT AS A
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STABILIZES THE AIR MASS IN THIS AREA ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST MAY ALLOW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WA
CASCADES...AND EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND A WEAK STEERING FLOW MAY
RESULT IN SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF MT. ADAMS.  THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED BY FUTURE SHIFTS TO DETERMINE IF A WATCH IS
NEEDED.  THE LATEST GFS SEEMS TOO STRONG WITH THIS UPSTREAM LOW AS
IT TRACKS ACROSS WA/OR ON SATURDAY COMPARED TO THE NAM AND ECWMF.
THIS HAS A STRONG INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
WILL CONSIDER THE GFS AS AN OUTLIER WITH THE STRONGER LOW AND MORE
BULLISH QPF...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE AND LIGHT
QPF AMOUNTS.  ON SUNDAY...THE NEXT UPPER LOW OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN ZONES BUT DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH.  WISTER

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.  UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SOUTH FROM CANADA
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE GFS MODEL KEEPS THE LOW OVER
THE AREA THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WHILE THE ECMWF KICKS THE LOW EAST BY
LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THUS WILL LITTLE CONFIDENCE...I HAVE
KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHT WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS.  GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 04Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR THE THUNDERSTORMS.  CONFIDENCE TO PUT
THUNDERSTORMS IN SPECIFIC LOCATIONS IS LOW.  SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN FRIDAY AFTER
20Z.  93

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  57  75  53  72 /  50  50  50  60
ALW  56  78  56  74 /  50  50  50  50
PSC  60  83  59  80 /  40  50  50  30
YKM  59  78  58  78 /  40  70  40  40
HRI  59  81  59  78 /  30  50  50  40
ELN  56  76  54  75 /  40  70  40  40
RDM  51  68  42  66 /  70  50  20  30
LGD  52  69  54  67 /  50  80  50  50
GCD  48  69  51  66 /  70  80  60  40
DLS  59  76  57  72 /  50  40  20  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR ORZ049-050-502-503-
     505-506.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ509.

WA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR WAZ030.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

85/93/93




000
FXUS66 KPDT 212118
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
220 PM PDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.  BUSY SHIFT TODAY AS WE FOCUS
ON THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS WELL AS THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND FORECAST.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER NORTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON.  CONVECTION IS A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...AND RAINFALL
RATES NEAR 0.5 INCH PER HOUR HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED.  THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WAS EXTENDED TO INCLUDE THE NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS OF
WASHINGTON.  THE MAIN UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT AND WILL APPROACH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
LATE FRIDAY.  MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY WILL
BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE JOHN DAY-OCHOCO HIGHLANDS AND
FROM THE BLUE MOUNTAINS EAST TO THE IDAHO BORDER.  THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE OR CASCADES WILL END TONIGHT AS A
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STABILIZES THE AIR MASS IN THIS AREA ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST MAY ALLOW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WA
CASCADES...AND EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND A WEAK STEERING FLOW MAY
RESULT IN SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF MT. ADAMS.  THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED BY FUTURE SHIFTS TO DETERMINE IF A WATCH IS
NEEDED.  THE LATEST GFS SEEMS TOO STRONG WITH THIS UPSTREAM LOW AS
IT TRACKS ACROSS WA/OR ON SATURDAY COMPARED TO THE NAM AND ECWMF.
THIS HAS A STRONG INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
WILL CONSIDER THE GFS AS AN OUTLIER WITH THE STRONGER LOW AND MORE
BULLISH QPF...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE AND LIGHT
QPF AMOUNTS.  ON SUNDAY...THE NEXT UPPER LOW OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN ZONES BUT DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH.  WISTER

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.  UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SOUTH FROM CANADA
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE GFS MODEL KEEPS THE LOW OVER
THE AREA THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WHILE THE ECMWF KICKS THE LOW EAST BY
LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THUS WILL LITTLE CONFIDENCE...I HAVE
KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHT WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS.  GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 04Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR THE THUNDERSTORMS.  CONFIDENCE TO PUT
THUNDERSTORMS IN SPECIFIC LOCATIONS IS LOW.  SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN FRIDAY AFTER
20Z.  93

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  57  75  53  72 /  50  50  50  60
ALW  56  78  56  74 /  50  50  50  50
PSC  60  83  59  80 /  40  50  50  30
YKM  59  78  58  78 /  40  70  40  40
HRI  59  81  59  78 /  30  50  50  40
ELN  56  76  54  75 /  40  70  40  40
RDM  51  68  42  66 /  70  50  20  30
LGD  52  69  54  67 /  50  80  50  50
GCD  48  69  51  66 /  70  80  60  40
DLS  59  76  57  72 /  50  40  20  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR ORZ049-050-502-503-
     505-506.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ509.

WA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR WAZ030.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

85/93/93




000
FXUS66 KPDT 211847 AAB
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1147 AM PDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...FLASH FLOOD WATCHES WERE ISSUED TODAY FOR THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE OREGON CASCADES...THE JOHN DAY-OCHOCO HIGHLANDS AND
JOHN DAY BASIN...THE OREGON BLUE MOUNTAINS...THE GRANDE RONDE
VALLEY...AND WALLOW COUNTY. THE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE EAST SLOPES OF THE OREGON
CASCADES. ALONG THE EAST SLOPES...ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AS A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD STABILIZE THE AIR MASS.


&&


.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THERE WILL BE SHOWERS CROSSING THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING THEN TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FROM 20Z THIS AFTERNOON TO
04Z THIS EVENING...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT CAN
CREATE MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE
5000 FEET AGL. WINDS WILL MAINLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS EXCEPT FOR
GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT KDLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. GUSTY
WINDS CAN ALSO BE ENCOUNTERED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. 93


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM PDT THU MAY 21 2015/

SHORT TERM...FORECAST ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE THE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UNSTABLE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THE PARENT LOW
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS CIRCULATING WEAK IMPULSES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE AIR MASS IS QUITE MOIST WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 0.75 TO NEAR ONE INCH THIS
AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN OREGON AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. A WEAK
STEERING E-SE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SLOW MOVING STORMS BRINGING
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WILL NEED TO CONSIDER IF HIGHLIGHTS ARE IN
ORDER...AND THE FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL BE UPDATED IF ANY
STATEMENTS ARE ISSUED.  WISTER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM PDT THU MAY 21 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST WILL MOVE EWD TO THE 4-CORNERS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
SMALLER UPPER LOW WILL FORM OFF THE OREGON COAST EARLY SATURDAY AND
TRACK SEWD ACROSS SW OREGON INTO NRN CALIFORNIA. THE NET EFFECT WILL
BE TO KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHEN AND WHERE SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP IS DIFFICULT GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE A
DIURNAL MAXIMUM EACH DAY. FOR TODAY THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE
NAM...SHOW GOOD INSTABILITY BUILDING UP OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
WITH SURFACE CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR
LATER TODAY ALSO SHOW THE LOWER ELEVATIONS UNSTABLE WITH CAPE VALUES
OF 1000 J/KG AND NO CAP. WITH WEAK EASTERLY STEERING FLOW THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS TO PROPAGATE INTO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
VERY WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER TODAY BUT GIVEN THE
MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND GOOD PRECIPITABLE WATER ADDED HEAVY
RAIN AND SMALL HAIL TO THE EASTERN MTNS. MORE OF THE SAME IS
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE LESS UNSTABLE.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND GUSTY IN THE COLUMBIA GORGE
AND KITTITAS VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY SATURDAY MOST
OF THE INSTABILITY WILL BE FOCUSED IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND OVERALL IT LOOKS LESS ACTIVE. TEMPERATURE WILL
START OUT WARM WITH HIGHS TODAY LOWER 80S LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
60S/70S MTNS. IT WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY CLOUD COVER WITH MOSTLY 50S
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 40S MOUNTAINS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A BROAD TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK KEEPING A STREAM OF
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THAT
WILL PROMOTE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS SHOW INCREASING
DIFFERENCES OVER TIME AS TO THE TIMING AND POSITION OF LOWS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES SO CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL FOR ANY
PARTICULAR LOCATION AT A PARTICULAR TIME. INITIALLY A LOW WILL BE IN
NORTHERN NEVADA AND UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE ANOTHER LOW FORMS IN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS WILL GIVE US A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING IN WASHINGTON AND THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS OF OREGON WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. BY SUNDAY THE LOW IN
THE GREAT BASIN WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES WHILE THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
LOW WILL BE IN NORTHERN WASHINGTON. MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE LOW OVER
THE ROCKIES MOVES EAST OUT OF THE AREA BUT THE LOW OVER WASHINGTON
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA IS MAINLY DRY. BY WEDNESDAY THE
MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE GFS RETREATING THE LOW OFFSHORE NEAR ASTORIA
WHERE IT STAYS THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH WEAKENED
LOW OVER IDAHO. HAVE GONE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MOST
OF THE AREA ASIDE FROM THE COLUMBIA BASIN WHICH IS DRY. ALSO HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN
OREGON MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND
MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH MAINLY 60 IN THE MOUNTAINS.
PERRY



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  77  57  75  52 /  50  50  50  50
ALW  79  56  78  55 /  50  50  50  50
PSC  83  60  83  57 /  30  40  50  50
YKM  81  59  78  56 /  30  40  70  40
HRI  82  59  81  56 /  30  30  50  40
ELN  80  56  76  52 /  30  40  70  40
RDM  70  51  68  40 /  70  70  50  20
LGD  71  52  69  50 /  50  50  80  50
GCD  71  48  69  48 /  70  70  80  50
DLS  79  59  76  54 /  50  50  40  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR ORZ049-050-502-503-505-506.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ509.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

85/93/93




000
FXUS66 KPDT 211847 AAB
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1147 AM PDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...FLASH FLOOD WATCHES WERE ISSUED TODAY FOR THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE OREGON CASCADES...THE JOHN DAY-OCHOCO HIGHLANDS AND
JOHN DAY BASIN...THE OREGON BLUE MOUNTAINS...THE GRANDE RONDE
VALLEY...AND WALLOW COUNTY. THE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE EAST SLOPES OF THE OREGON
CASCADES. ALONG THE EAST SLOPES...ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AS A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD STABILIZE THE AIR MASS.


&&


.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THERE WILL BE SHOWERS CROSSING THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING THEN TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FROM 20Z THIS AFTERNOON TO
04Z THIS EVENING...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT CAN
CREATE MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE
5000 FEET AGL. WINDS WILL MAINLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS EXCEPT FOR
GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT KDLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. GUSTY
WINDS CAN ALSO BE ENCOUNTERED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. 93


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM PDT THU MAY 21 2015/

SHORT TERM...FORECAST ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE THE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UNSTABLE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THE PARENT LOW
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS CIRCULATING WEAK IMPULSES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE AIR MASS IS QUITE MOIST WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 0.75 TO NEAR ONE INCH THIS
AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN OREGON AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. A WEAK
STEERING E-SE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SLOW MOVING STORMS BRINGING
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WILL NEED TO CONSIDER IF HIGHLIGHTS ARE IN
ORDER...AND THE FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL BE UPDATED IF ANY
STATEMENTS ARE ISSUED.  WISTER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM PDT THU MAY 21 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST WILL MOVE EWD TO THE 4-CORNERS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
SMALLER UPPER LOW WILL FORM OFF THE OREGON COAST EARLY SATURDAY AND
TRACK SEWD ACROSS SW OREGON INTO NRN CALIFORNIA. THE NET EFFECT WILL
BE TO KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHEN AND WHERE SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP IS DIFFICULT GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE A
DIURNAL MAXIMUM EACH DAY. FOR TODAY THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE
NAM...SHOW GOOD INSTABILITY BUILDING UP OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
WITH SURFACE CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR
LATER TODAY ALSO SHOW THE LOWER ELEVATIONS UNSTABLE WITH CAPE VALUES
OF 1000 J/KG AND NO CAP. WITH WEAK EASTERLY STEERING FLOW THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS TO PROPAGATE INTO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
VERY WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER TODAY BUT GIVEN THE
MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND GOOD PRECIPITABLE WATER ADDED HEAVY
RAIN AND SMALL HAIL TO THE EASTERN MTNS. MORE OF THE SAME IS
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE LESS UNSTABLE.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND GUSTY IN THE COLUMBIA GORGE
AND KITTITAS VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY SATURDAY MOST
OF THE INSTABILITY WILL BE FOCUSED IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND OVERALL IT LOOKS LESS ACTIVE. TEMPERATURE WILL
START OUT WARM WITH HIGHS TODAY LOWER 80S LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
60S/70S MTNS. IT WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY CLOUD COVER WITH MOSTLY 50S
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 40S MOUNTAINS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A BROAD TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK KEEPING A STREAM OF
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THAT
WILL PROMOTE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS SHOW INCREASING
DIFFERENCES OVER TIME AS TO THE TIMING AND POSITION OF LOWS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES SO CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL FOR ANY
PARTICULAR LOCATION AT A PARTICULAR TIME. INITIALLY A LOW WILL BE IN
NORTHERN NEVADA AND UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE ANOTHER LOW FORMS IN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS WILL GIVE US A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING IN WASHINGTON AND THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS OF OREGON WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. BY SUNDAY THE LOW IN
THE GREAT BASIN WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES WHILE THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
LOW WILL BE IN NORTHERN WASHINGTON. MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE LOW OVER
THE ROCKIES MOVES EAST OUT OF THE AREA BUT THE LOW OVER WASHINGTON
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA IS MAINLY DRY. BY WEDNESDAY THE
MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE GFS RETREATING THE LOW OFFSHORE NEAR ASTORIA
WHERE IT STAYS THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH WEAKENED
LOW OVER IDAHO. HAVE GONE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MOST
OF THE AREA ASIDE FROM THE COLUMBIA BASIN WHICH IS DRY. ALSO HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN
OREGON MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND
MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH MAINLY 60 IN THE MOUNTAINS.
PERRY



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  77  57  75  52 /  50  50  50  50
ALW  79  56  78  55 /  50  50  50  50
PSC  83  60  83  57 /  30  40  50  50
YKM  81  59  78  56 /  30  40  70  40
HRI  82  59  81  56 /  30  30  50  40
ELN  80  56  76  52 /  30  40  70  40
RDM  70  51  68  40 /  70  70  50  20
LGD  71  52  69  50 /  50  50  80  50
GCD  71  48  69  48 /  70  70  80  50
DLS  79  59  76  54 /  50  50  40  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR ORZ049-050-502-503-505-506.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ509.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

85/93/93





000
FXUS66 KPDT 211847 AAB
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1147 AM PDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...FLASH FLOOD WATCHES WERE ISSUED TODAY FOR THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE OREGON CASCADES...THE JOHN DAY-OCHOCO HIGHLANDS AND
JOHN DAY BASIN...THE OREGON BLUE MOUNTAINS...THE GRANDE RONDE
VALLEY...AND WALLOW COUNTY. THE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE EAST SLOPES OF THE OREGON
CASCADES. ALONG THE EAST SLOPES...ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AS A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD STABILIZE THE AIR MASS.


&&


.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THERE WILL BE SHOWERS CROSSING THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING THEN TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FROM 20Z THIS AFTERNOON TO
04Z THIS EVENING...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT CAN
CREATE MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE
5000 FEET AGL. WINDS WILL MAINLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS EXCEPT FOR
GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT KDLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. GUSTY
WINDS CAN ALSO BE ENCOUNTERED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. 93


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM PDT THU MAY 21 2015/

SHORT TERM...FORECAST ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE THE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UNSTABLE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THE PARENT LOW
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS CIRCULATING WEAK IMPULSES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE AIR MASS IS QUITE MOIST WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 0.75 TO NEAR ONE INCH THIS
AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN OREGON AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. A WEAK
STEERING E-SE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SLOW MOVING STORMS BRINGING
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WILL NEED TO CONSIDER IF HIGHLIGHTS ARE IN
ORDER...AND THE FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL BE UPDATED IF ANY
STATEMENTS ARE ISSUED.  WISTER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM PDT THU MAY 21 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST WILL MOVE EWD TO THE 4-CORNERS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
SMALLER UPPER LOW WILL FORM OFF THE OREGON COAST EARLY SATURDAY AND
TRACK SEWD ACROSS SW OREGON INTO NRN CALIFORNIA. THE NET EFFECT WILL
BE TO KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHEN AND WHERE SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP IS DIFFICULT GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE A
DIURNAL MAXIMUM EACH DAY. FOR TODAY THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE
NAM...SHOW GOOD INSTABILITY BUILDING UP OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
WITH SURFACE CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR
LATER TODAY ALSO SHOW THE LOWER ELEVATIONS UNSTABLE WITH CAPE VALUES
OF 1000 J/KG AND NO CAP. WITH WEAK EASTERLY STEERING FLOW THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS TO PROPAGATE INTO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
VERY WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER TODAY BUT GIVEN THE
MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND GOOD PRECIPITABLE WATER ADDED HEAVY
RAIN AND SMALL HAIL TO THE EASTERN MTNS. MORE OF THE SAME IS
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE LESS UNSTABLE.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND GUSTY IN THE COLUMBIA GORGE
AND KITTITAS VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY SATURDAY MOST
OF THE INSTABILITY WILL BE FOCUSED IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND OVERALL IT LOOKS LESS ACTIVE. TEMPERATURE WILL
START OUT WARM WITH HIGHS TODAY LOWER 80S LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
60S/70S MTNS. IT WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY CLOUD COVER WITH MOSTLY 50S
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 40S MOUNTAINS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A BROAD TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK KEEPING A STREAM OF
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THAT
WILL PROMOTE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS SHOW INCREASING
DIFFERENCES OVER TIME AS TO THE TIMING AND POSITION OF LOWS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES SO CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL FOR ANY
PARTICULAR LOCATION AT A PARTICULAR TIME. INITIALLY A LOW WILL BE IN
NORTHERN NEVADA AND UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE ANOTHER LOW FORMS IN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS WILL GIVE US A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING IN WASHINGTON AND THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS OF OREGON WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. BY SUNDAY THE LOW IN
THE GREAT BASIN WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES WHILE THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
LOW WILL BE IN NORTHERN WASHINGTON. MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE LOW OVER
THE ROCKIES MOVES EAST OUT OF THE AREA BUT THE LOW OVER WASHINGTON
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA IS MAINLY DRY. BY WEDNESDAY THE
MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE GFS RETREATING THE LOW OFFSHORE NEAR ASTORIA
WHERE IT STAYS THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH WEAKENED
LOW OVER IDAHO. HAVE GONE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MOST
OF THE AREA ASIDE FROM THE COLUMBIA BASIN WHICH IS DRY. ALSO HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN
OREGON MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND
MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH MAINLY 60 IN THE MOUNTAINS.
PERRY



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  77  57  75  52 /  50  50  50  50
ALW  79  56  78  55 /  50  50  50  50
PSC  83  60  83  57 /  30  40  50  50
YKM  81  59  78  56 /  30  40  70  40
HRI  82  59  81  56 /  30  30  50  40
ELN  80  56  76  52 /  30  40  70  40
RDM  70  51  68  40 /  70  70  50  20
LGD  71  52  69  50 /  50  50  80  50
GCD  71  48  69  48 /  70  70  80  50
DLS  79  59  76  54 /  50  50  40  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR ORZ049-050-502-503-505-506.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ509.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

85/93/93





000
FXUS66 KPDT 211847 AAB
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1147 AM PDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...FLASH FLOOD WATCHES WERE ISSUED TODAY FOR THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE OREGON CASCADES...THE JOHN DAY-OCHOCO HIGHLANDS AND
JOHN DAY BASIN...THE OREGON BLUE MOUNTAINS...THE GRANDE RONDE
VALLEY...AND WALLOW COUNTY. THE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE EAST SLOPES OF THE OREGON
CASCADES. ALONG THE EAST SLOPES...ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AS A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD STABILIZE THE AIR MASS.


&&


.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THERE WILL BE SHOWERS CROSSING THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING THEN TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FROM 20Z THIS AFTERNOON TO
04Z THIS EVENING...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT CAN
CREATE MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE
5000 FEET AGL. WINDS WILL MAINLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS EXCEPT FOR
GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT KDLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. GUSTY
WINDS CAN ALSO BE ENCOUNTERED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. 93


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM PDT THU MAY 21 2015/

SHORT TERM...FORECAST ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE THE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UNSTABLE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THE PARENT LOW
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS CIRCULATING WEAK IMPULSES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE AIR MASS IS QUITE MOIST WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 0.75 TO NEAR ONE INCH THIS
AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN OREGON AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. A WEAK
STEERING E-SE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SLOW MOVING STORMS BRINGING
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WILL NEED TO CONSIDER IF HIGHLIGHTS ARE IN
ORDER...AND THE FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL BE UPDATED IF ANY
STATEMENTS ARE ISSUED.  WISTER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM PDT THU MAY 21 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST WILL MOVE EWD TO THE 4-CORNERS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
SMALLER UPPER LOW WILL FORM OFF THE OREGON COAST EARLY SATURDAY AND
TRACK SEWD ACROSS SW OREGON INTO NRN CALIFORNIA. THE NET EFFECT WILL
BE TO KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHEN AND WHERE SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP IS DIFFICULT GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE A
DIURNAL MAXIMUM EACH DAY. FOR TODAY THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE
NAM...SHOW GOOD INSTABILITY BUILDING UP OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
WITH SURFACE CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR
LATER TODAY ALSO SHOW THE LOWER ELEVATIONS UNSTABLE WITH CAPE VALUES
OF 1000 J/KG AND NO CAP. WITH WEAK EASTERLY STEERING FLOW THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS TO PROPAGATE INTO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
VERY WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER TODAY BUT GIVEN THE
MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND GOOD PRECIPITABLE WATER ADDED HEAVY
RAIN AND SMALL HAIL TO THE EASTERN MTNS. MORE OF THE SAME IS
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE LESS UNSTABLE.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND GUSTY IN THE COLUMBIA GORGE
AND KITTITAS VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY SATURDAY MOST
OF THE INSTABILITY WILL BE FOCUSED IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND OVERALL IT LOOKS LESS ACTIVE. TEMPERATURE WILL
START OUT WARM WITH HIGHS TODAY LOWER 80S LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
60S/70S MTNS. IT WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY CLOUD COVER WITH MOSTLY 50S
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 40S MOUNTAINS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A BROAD TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK KEEPING A STREAM OF
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THAT
WILL PROMOTE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS SHOW INCREASING
DIFFERENCES OVER TIME AS TO THE TIMING AND POSITION OF LOWS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES SO CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL FOR ANY
PARTICULAR LOCATION AT A PARTICULAR TIME. INITIALLY A LOW WILL BE IN
NORTHERN NEVADA AND UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE ANOTHER LOW FORMS IN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS WILL GIVE US A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING IN WASHINGTON AND THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS OF OREGON WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. BY SUNDAY THE LOW IN
THE GREAT BASIN WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES WHILE THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
LOW WILL BE IN NORTHERN WASHINGTON. MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE LOW OVER
THE ROCKIES MOVES EAST OUT OF THE AREA BUT THE LOW OVER WASHINGTON
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA IS MAINLY DRY. BY WEDNESDAY THE
MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE GFS RETREATING THE LOW OFFSHORE NEAR ASTORIA
WHERE IT STAYS THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH WEAKENED
LOW OVER IDAHO. HAVE GONE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MOST
OF THE AREA ASIDE FROM THE COLUMBIA BASIN WHICH IS DRY. ALSO HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN
OREGON MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND
MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH MAINLY 60 IN THE MOUNTAINS.
PERRY



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  77  57  75  52 /  50  50  50  50
ALW  79  56  78  55 /  50  50  50  50
PSC  83  60  83  57 /  30  40  50  50
YKM  81  59  78  56 /  30  40  70  40
HRI  82  59  81  56 /  30  30  50  40
ELN  80  56  76  52 /  30  40  70  40
RDM  70  51  68  40 /  70  70  50  20
LGD  71  52  69  50 /  50  50  80  50
GCD  71  48  69  48 /  70  70  80  50
DLS  79  59  76  54 /  50  50  40  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR ORZ049-050-502-503-505-506.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ509.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

85/93/93




000
FXUS66 KPDT 211722 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1020 AM PDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...FORECAST ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE THE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UNSTABLE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THE PARENT LOW
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS CIRCULATING WEAK IMPULSES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE AIR MASS IS QUITE MOIST WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 0.75 TO NEAR ONE INCH THIS
AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN OREGON AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. A WEAK
STEERING E-SE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SLOW MOVING STORMS BRINGING
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WILL NEED TO CONSIDER IF HIGHLIGHTS ARE IN
ORDER...AND THE FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL BE UPDATED IF ANY
STATEMENTS ARE ISSUED.  WISTER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM PDT THU MAY 21 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST WILL MOVE EWD TO THE 4-CORNERS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
SMALLER UPPER LOW WILL FORM OFF THE OREGON COAST EARLY SATURDAY AND
TRACK SEWD ACROSS SW OREGON INTO NRN CALIFORNIA. THE NET EFFECT WILL
BE TO KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHEN AND WHERE SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP IS DIFFICULT GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE A
DIURNAL MAXIMUM EACH DAY. FOR TODAY THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE
NAM...SHOW GOOD INSTABILITY BUILDING UP OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
WITH SURFACE CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR
LATER TODAY ALSO SHOW THE LOWER ELEVATIONS UNSTABLE WITH CAPE VALUES
OF 1000 J/KG AND NO CAP. WITH WEAK EASTERLY STEERING FLOW THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS TO PROPAGATE INTO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
VERY WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER TODAY BUT GIVEN THE
MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND GOOD PRECIPITABLE WATER ADDED HEAVY
RAIN AND SMALL HAIL TO THE EASTERN MTNS. MORE OF THE SAME IS
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE LESS UNSTABLE.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND GUSTY IN THE COLUMBIA GORGE
AND KITTITAS VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY SATURDAY MOST
OF THE INSTABILITY WILL BE FOCUSED IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND OVERALL IT LOOKS LESS ACTIVE. TEMPERATURE WILL
START OUT WARM WITH HIGHS TODAY LOWER 80S LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
60S/70S MTNS. IT WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY CLOUD COVER WITH MOSTLY 50S
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 40S MOUNTAINS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A BROAD TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK KEEPING A STREAM OF
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THAT
WILL PROMOTE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS SHOW INCREASING
DIFFERENCES OVER TIME AS TO THE TIMING AND POSITION OF LOWS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES SO CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL FOR ANY
PARTICULAR LOCATION AT A PARTICULAR TIME. INITIALLY A LOW WILL BE IN
NORTHERN NEVADA AND UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE ANOTHER LOW FORMS IN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS WILL GIVE US A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING IN WASHINGTON AND THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS OF OREGON WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. BY SUNDAY THE LOW IN
THE GREAT BASIN WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES WHILE THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
LOW WILL BE IN NORTHERN WASHINGTON. MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE LOW OVER
THE ROCKIES MOVES EAST OUT OF THE AREA BUT THE LOW OVER WASHINGTON
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA IS MAINLY DRY. BY WEDNESDAY THE
MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE GFS RETREATING THE LOW OFFSHORE NEAR ASTORIA
WHERE IT STAYS THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH WEAKENED
LOW OVER IDAHO. HAVE GONE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MOST
OF THE AREA ASIDE FROM THE COLUMBIA BASIN WHICH IS DRY. ALSO HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN
OREGON MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND
MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH MAINLY 60 IN THE MOUNTAINS.
PERRY

AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THERE WILL BE SHOWERS CROSSING THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING THEN TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FROM 20Z THIS AFTERNOON TO
04Z THIS EVENING...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT CAN
CREATE MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE
5000 FEET AGL. WINDS WILL MAINLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS EXCEPT FOR
GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT KDLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. GUSTY
WINDS CAN ALSO BE ENCOUNTERED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. 93

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  77  56  74  52 /  50  30  40  50
ALW  79  57  78  55 /  50  40  40  50
PSC  83  59  83  57 /  30  30  40  50
YKM  81  58  78  56 /  30  40  60  40
HRI  82  58  80  56 /  30  30  40  40
ELN  80  56  76  52 /  30  40  60  40
RDM  70  50  69  40 /  70  60  40  20
LGD  71  51  69  50 /  50  40  70  50
GCD  71  46  69  48 /  70  50  70  50
DLS  79  58  76  54 /  50  40  30  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

85/93/93





000
FXUS66 KPDT 211722 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1020 AM PDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...FORECAST ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE THE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UNSTABLE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THE PARENT LOW
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS CIRCULATING WEAK IMPULSES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE AIR MASS IS QUITE MOIST WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 0.75 TO NEAR ONE INCH THIS
AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN OREGON AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. A WEAK
STEERING E-SE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SLOW MOVING STORMS BRINGING
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WILL NEED TO CONSIDER IF HIGHLIGHTS ARE IN
ORDER...AND THE FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL BE UPDATED IF ANY
STATEMENTS ARE ISSUED.  WISTER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM PDT THU MAY 21 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST WILL MOVE EWD TO THE 4-CORNERS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
SMALLER UPPER LOW WILL FORM OFF THE OREGON COAST EARLY SATURDAY AND
TRACK SEWD ACROSS SW OREGON INTO NRN CALIFORNIA. THE NET EFFECT WILL
BE TO KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHEN AND WHERE SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP IS DIFFICULT GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE A
DIURNAL MAXIMUM EACH DAY. FOR TODAY THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE
NAM...SHOW GOOD INSTABILITY BUILDING UP OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
WITH SURFACE CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR
LATER TODAY ALSO SHOW THE LOWER ELEVATIONS UNSTABLE WITH CAPE VALUES
OF 1000 J/KG AND NO CAP. WITH WEAK EASTERLY STEERING FLOW THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS TO PROPAGATE INTO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
VERY WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER TODAY BUT GIVEN THE
MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND GOOD PRECIPITABLE WATER ADDED HEAVY
RAIN AND SMALL HAIL TO THE EASTERN MTNS. MORE OF THE SAME IS
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE LESS UNSTABLE.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND GUSTY IN THE COLUMBIA GORGE
AND KITTITAS VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY SATURDAY MOST
OF THE INSTABILITY WILL BE FOCUSED IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND OVERALL IT LOOKS LESS ACTIVE. TEMPERATURE WILL
START OUT WARM WITH HIGHS TODAY LOWER 80S LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
60S/70S MTNS. IT WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY CLOUD COVER WITH MOSTLY 50S
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 40S MOUNTAINS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A BROAD TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK KEEPING A STREAM OF
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THAT
WILL PROMOTE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS SHOW INCREASING
DIFFERENCES OVER TIME AS TO THE TIMING AND POSITION OF LOWS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES SO CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL FOR ANY
PARTICULAR LOCATION AT A PARTICULAR TIME. INITIALLY A LOW WILL BE IN
NORTHERN NEVADA AND UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE ANOTHER LOW FORMS IN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS WILL GIVE US A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING IN WASHINGTON AND THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS OF OREGON WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. BY SUNDAY THE LOW IN
THE GREAT BASIN WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES WHILE THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
LOW WILL BE IN NORTHERN WASHINGTON. MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE LOW OVER
THE ROCKIES MOVES EAST OUT OF THE AREA BUT THE LOW OVER WASHINGTON
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA IS MAINLY DRY. BY WEDNESDAY THE
MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE GFS RETREATING THE LOW OFFSHORE NEAR ASTORIA
WHERE IT STAYS THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH WEAKENED
LOW OVER IDAHO. HAVE GONE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MOST
OF THE AREA ASIDE FROM THE COLUMBIA BASIN WHICH IS DRY. ALSO HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN
OREGON MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND
MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH MAINLY 60 IN THE MOUNTAINS.
PERRY

AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THERE WILL BE SHOWERS CROSSING THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING THEN TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FROM 20Z THIS AFTERNOON TO
04Z THIS EVENING...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT CAN
CREATE MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE
5000 FEET AGL. WINDS WILL MAINLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS EXCEPT FOR
GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT KDLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. GUSTY
WINDS CAN ALSO BE ENCOUNTERED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. 93

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  77  56  74  52 /  50  30  40  50
ALW  79  57  78  55 /  50  40  40  50
PSC  83  59  83  57 /  30  30  40  50
YKM  81  58  78  56 /  30  40  60  40
HRI  82  58  80  56 /  30  30  40  40
ELN  80  56  76  52 /  30  40  60  40
RDM  70  50  69  40 /  70  60  40  20
LGD  71  51  69  50 /  50  40  70  50
GCD  71  46  69  48 /  70  50  70  50
DLS  79  58  76  54 /  50  40  30  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

85/93/93




000
FXUS66 KPDT 211722 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1020 AM PDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...FORECAST ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE THE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UNSTABLE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THE PARENT LOW
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS CIRCULATING WEAK IMPULSES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE AIR MASS IS QUITE MOIST WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 0.75 TO NEAR ONE INCH THIS
AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN OREGON AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. A WEAK
STEERING E-SE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SLOW MOVING STORMS BRINGING
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WILL NEED TO CONSIDER IF HIGHLIGHTS ARE IN
ORDER...AND THE FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL BE UPDATED IF ANY
STATEMENTS ARE ISSUED.  WISTER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM PDT THU MAY 21 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST WILL MOVE EWD TO THE 4-CORNERS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
SMALLER UPPER LOW WILL FORM OFF THE OREGON COAST EARLY SATURDAY AND
TRACK SEWD ACROSS SW OREGON INTO NRN CALIFORNIA. THE NET EFFECT WILL
BE TO KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHEN AND WHERE SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP IS DIFFICULT GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE A
DIURNAL MAXIMUM EACH DAY. FOR TODAY THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE
NAM...SHOW GOOD INSTABILITY BUILDING UP OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
WITH SURFACE CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR
LATER TODAY ALSO SHOW THE LOWER ELEVATIONS UNSTABLE WITH CAPE VALUES
OF 1000 J/KG AND NO CAP. WITH WEAK EASTERLY STEERING FLOW THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS TO PROPAGATE INTO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
VERY WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER TODAY BUT GIVEN THE
MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND GOOD PRECIPITABLE WATER ADDED HEAVY
RAIN AND SMALL HAIL TO THE EASTERN MTNS. MORE OF THE SAME IS
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE LESS UNSTABLE.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND GUSTY IN THE COLUMBIA GORGE
AND KITTITAS VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY SATURDAY MOST
OF THE INSTABILITY WILL BE FOCUSED IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND OVERALL IT LOOKS LESS ACTIVE. TEMPERATURE WILL
START OUT WARM WITH HIGHS TODAY LOWER 80S LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
60S/70S MTNS. IT WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY CLOUD COVER WITH MOSTLY 50S
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 40S MOUNTAINS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A BROAD TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK KEEPING A STREAM OF
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THAT
WILL PROMOTE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS SHOW INCREASING
DIFFERENCES OVER TIME AS TO THE TIMING AND POSITION OF LOWS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES SO CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL FOR ANY
PARTICULAR LOCATION AT A PARTICULAR TIME. INITIALLY A LOW WILL BE IN
NORTHERN NEVADA AND UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE ANOTHER LOW FORMS IN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS WILL GIVE US A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING IN WASHINGTON AND THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS OF OREGON WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. BY SUNDAY THE LOW IN
THE GREAT BASIN WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES WHILE THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
LOW WILL BE IN NORTHERN WASHINGTON. MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE LOW OVER
THE ROCKIES MOVES EAST OUT OF THE AREA BUT THE LOW OVER WASHINGTON
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA IS MAINLY DRY. BY WEDNESDAY THE
MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE GFS RETREATING THE LOW OFFSHORE NEAR ASTORIA
WHERE IT STAYS THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH WEAKENED
LOW OVER IDAHO. HAVE GONE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MOST
OF THE AREA ASIDE FROM THE COLUMBIA BASIN WHICH IS DRY. ALSO HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN
OREGON MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND
MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH MAINLY 60 IN THE MOUNTAINS.
PERRY

AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THERE WILL BE SHOWERS CROSSING THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING THEN TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FROM 20Z THIS AFTERNOON TO
04Z THIS EVENING...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT CAN
CREATE MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE
5000 FEET AGL. WINDS WILL MAINLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS EXCEPT FOR
GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT KDLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. GUSTY
WINDS CAN ALSO BE ENCOUNTERED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. 93

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  77  56  74  52 /  50  30  40  50
ALW  79  57  78  55 /  50  40  40  50
PSC  83  59  83  57 /  30  30  40  50
YKM  81  58  78  56 /  30  40  60  40
HRI  82  58  80  56 /  30  30  40  40
ELN  80  56  76  52 /  30  40  60  40
RDM  70  50  69  40 /  70  60  40  20
LGD  71  51  69  50 /  50  40  70  50
GCD  71  46  69  48 /  70  50  70  50
DLS  79  58  76  54 /  50  40  30  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

85/93/93




000
FXUS66 KPDT 211722 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1020 AM PDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...FORECAST ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE THE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UNSTABLE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THE PARENT LOW
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS CIRCULATING WEAK IMPULSES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE AIR MASS IS QUITE MOIST WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 0.75 TO NEAR ONE INCH THIS
AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN OREGON AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. A WEAK
STEERING E-SE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SLOW MOVING STORMS BRINGING
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WILL NEED TO CONSIDER IF HIGHLIGHTS ARE IN
ORDER...AND THE FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL BE UPDATED IF ANY
STATEMENTS ARE ISSUED.  WISTER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM PDT THU MAY 21 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST WILL MOVE EWD TO THE 4-CORNERS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
SMALLER UPPER LOW WILL FORM OFF THE OREGON COAST EARLY SATURDAY AND
TRACK SEWD ACROSS SW OREGON INTO NRN CALIFORNIA. THE NET EFFECT WILL
BE TO KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHEN AND WHERE SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP IS DIFFICULT GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE A
DIURNAL MAXIMUM EACH DAY. FOR TODAY THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE
NAM...SHOW GOOD INSTABILITY BUILDING UP OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
WITH SURFACE CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR
LATER TODAY ALSO SHOW THE LOWER ELEVATIONS UNSTABLE WITH CAPE VALUES
OF 1000 J/KG AND NO CAP. WITH WEAK EASTERLY STEERING FLOW THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS TO PROPAGATE INTO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
VERY WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER TODAY BUT GIVEN THE
MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND GOOD PRECIPITABLE WATER ADDED HEAVY
RAIN AND SMALL HAIL TO THE EASTERN MTNS. MORE OF THE SAME IS
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE LESS UNSTABLE.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND GUSTY IN THE COLUMBIA GORGE
AND KITTITAS VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY SATURDAY MOST
OF THE INSTABILITY WILL BE FOCUSED IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND OVERALL IT LOOKS LESS ACTIVE. TEMPERATURE WILL
START OUT WARM WITH HIGHS TODAY LOWER 80S LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
60S/70S MTNS. IT WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY CLOUD COVER WITH MOSTLY 50S
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 40S MOUNTAINS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A BROAD TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK KEEPING A STREAM OF
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THAT
WILL PROMOTE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS SHOW INCREASING
DIFFERENCES OVER TIME AS TO THE TIMING AND POSITION OF LOWS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES SO CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL FOR ANY
PARTICULAR LOCATION AT A PARTICULAR TIME. INITIALLY A LOW WILL BE IN
NORTHERN NEVADA AND UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE ANOTHER LOW FORMS IN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS WILL GIVE US A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING IN WASHINGTON AND THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS OF OREGON WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. BY SUNDAY THE LOW IN
THE GREAT BASIN WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES WHILE THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
LOW WILL BE IN NORTHERN WASHINGTON. MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE LOW OVER
THE ROCKIES MOVES EAST OUT OF THE AREA BUT THE LOW OVER WASHINGTON
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA IS MAINLY DRY. BY WEDNESDAY THE
MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE GFS RETREATING THE LOW OFFSHORE NEAR ASTORIA
WHERE IT STAYS THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH WEAKENED
LOW OVER IDAHO. HAVE GONE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MOST
OF THE AREA ASIDE FROM THE COLUMBIA BASIN WHICH IS DRY. ALSO HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN
OREGON MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND
MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH MAINLY 60 IN THE MOUNTAINS.
PERRY

AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THERE WILL BE SHOWERS CROSSING THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING THEN TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FROM 20Z THIS AFTERNOON TO
04Z THIS EVENING...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT CAN
CREATE MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE
5000 FEET AGL. WINDS WILL MAINLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS EXCEPT FOR
GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT KDLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. GUSTY
WINDS CAN ALSO BE ENCOUNTERED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. 93

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  77  56  74  52 /  50  30  40  50
ALW  79  57  78  55 /  50  40  40  50
PSC  83  59  83  57 /  30  30  40  50
YKM  81  58  78  56 /  30  40  60  40
HRI  82  58  80  56 /  30  30  40  40
ELN  80  56  76  52 /  30  40  60  40
RDM  70  50  69  40 /  70  60  40  20
LGD  71  51  69  50 /  50  40  70  50
GCD  71  46  69  48 /  70  50  70  50
DLS  79  58  76  54 /  50  40  30  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

85/93/93





000
FXUS66 KPDT 211541
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
841 AM PDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...FORECAST ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE THE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UNSTABLE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THE PARENT LOW
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS CIRCULATING WEAK IMPULSES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE AIR MASS IS QUITE MOIST WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 0.75 TO NEAR ONE INCH THIS
AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN OREGON AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. A WEAK
STEERING E-SE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SLOW MOVING STORMS BRINGING
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WILL NEED TO CONSIDER IF HIGHLIGHTS ARE IN
ORDER...AND THE FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL BE UPDATED IF ANY
STATEMENTS ARE ISSUED.  WISTER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM PDT THU MAY 21 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST WILL MOVE EWD TO THE 4-CORNERS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
SMALLER UPPER LOW WILL FORM OFF THE OREGON COAST EARLY SATURDAY AND
TRACK SEWD ACROSS SW OREGON INTO NRN CALIFORNIA. THE NET EFFECT WILL
BE TO KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHEN AND WHERE SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP IS DIFFICULT GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE A
DIURNAL MAXIMUM EACH DAY. FOR TODAY THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE
NAM...SHOW GOOD INSTABILITY BUILDING UP OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
WITH SURFACE CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR
LATER TODAY ALSO SHOW THE LOWER ELEVATIONS UNSTABLE WITH CAPE VALUES
OF 1000 J/KG AND NO CAP. WITH WEAK EASTERLY STEERING FLOW THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS TO PROPAGATE INTO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
VERY WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER TODAY BUT GIVEN THE
MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND GOOD PRECIPITABLE WATER ADDED HEAVY
RAIN AND SMALL HAIL TO THE EASTERN MTNS. MORE OF THE SAME IS
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE LESS UNSTABLE.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND GUSTY IN THE COLUMBIA GORGE
AND KITTITAS VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY SATURDAY MOST
OF THE INSTABILITY WILL BE FOCUSED IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND OVERALL IT LOOKS LESS ACTIVE. TEMPERATURE WILL
START OUT WARM WITH HIGHS TODAY LOWER 80S LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
60S/70S MTNS. IT WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY CLOUD COVER WITH MOSTLY 50S
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 40S MOUNTAINS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A BROAD TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK KEEPING A STREAM OF
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THAT
WILL PROMOTE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS SHOW INCREASING
DIFFERENCES OVER TIME AS TO THE TIMING AND POSITION OF LOWS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES SO CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL FOR ANY
PARTICULAR LOCATION AT A PARTICULAR TIME. INITIALLY A LOW WILL BE IN
NORTHERN NEVADA AND UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE ANOTHER LOW FORMS IN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS WILL GIVE US A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING IN WASHINGTON AND THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS OF OREGON WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. BY SUNDAY THE LOW IN
THE GREAT BASIN WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES WHILE THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
LOW WILL BE IN NORTHERN WASHINGTON. MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE LOW OVER
THE ROCKIES MOVES EAST OUT OF THE AREA BUT THE LOW OVER WASHINGTON
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA IS MAINLY DRY. BY WEDNESDAY THE
MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE GFS RETREATING THE LOW OFFSHORE NEAR ASTORIA
WHERE IT STAYS THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH WEAKENED
LOW OVER IDAHO. HAVE GONE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MOST
OF THE AREA ASIDE FROM THE COLUMBIA BASIN WHICH IS DRY. ALSO HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN
OREGON MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND
MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH MAINLY 60 IN THE MOUNTAINS.
PERRY

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THERE WILL BE SHOWERS CROSSING THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING THEN TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FROM 20Z THIS AFTERNOON TO
04Z THIS EVENING. DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD OCCUR AT ANY TAF SITE TO MENTION THEM IN THE TAFS BUT KBDN AND
KRDM WOULD APPEAR TO HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT CAN CREATE MVFR
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE 5000 FEET
AGL. WINDS WILL MAINLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS EXCEPT FOR GUSTS TO 20
KTS AT KDLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. GUSTY WINDS CAN ALSO
BE ENCOUNTERED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  77  56  74  52 /  50  30  40  50
ALW  79  57  78  55 /  50  40  40  50
PSC  83  59  83  57 /  30  30  40  50
YKM  81  58  78  56 /  30  40  60  40
HRI  82  58  80  56 /  30  30  40  40
ELN  80  56  76  52 /  30  40  60  40
RDM  70  50  69  40 /  70  60  40  20
LGD  71  51  69  50 /  50  40  70  50
GCD  71  46  69  48 /  70  50  70  50
DLS  79  58  76  54 /  50  40  30  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

85/93/93





000
FXUS66 KPDT 211541
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
841 AM PDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...FORECAST ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE THE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UNSTABLE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THE PARENT LOW
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS CIRCULATING WEAK IMPULSES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE AIR MASS IS QUITE MOIST WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 0.75 TO NEAR ONE INCH THIS
AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN OREGON AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. A WEAK
STEERING E-SE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SLOW MOVING STORMS BRINGING
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WILL NEED TO CONSIDER IF HIGHLIGHTS ARE IN
ORDER...AND THE FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL BE UPDATED IF ANY
STATEMENTS ARE ISSUED.  WISTER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM PDT THU MAY 21 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST WILL MOVE EWD TO THE 4-CORNERS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
SMALLER UPPER LOW WILL FORM OFF THE OREGON COAST EARLY SATURDAY AND
TRACK SEWD ACROSS SW OREGON INTO NRN CALIFORNIA. THE NET EFFECT WILL
BE TO KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHEN AND WHERE SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP IS DIFFICULT GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE A
DIURNAL MAXIMUM EACH DAY. FOR TODAY THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE
NAM...SHOW GOOD INSTABILITY BUILDING UP OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
WITH SURFACE CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR
LATER TODAY ALSO SHOW THE LOWER ELEVATIONS UNSTABLE WITH CAPE VALUES
OF 1000 J/KG AND NO CAP. WITH WEAK EASTERLY STEERING FLOW THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS TO PROPAGATE INTO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
VERY WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER TODAY BUT GIVEN THE
MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND GOOD PRECIPITABLE WATER ADDED HEAVY
RAIN AND SMALL HAIL TO THE EASTERN MTNS. MORE OF THE SAME IS
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE LESS UNSTABLE.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND GUSTY IN THE COLUMBIA GORGE
AND KITTITAS VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY SATURDAY MOST
OF THE INSTABILITY WILL BE FOCUSED IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND OVERALL IT LOOKS LESS ACTIVE. TEMPERATURE WILL
START OUT WARM WITH HIGHS TODAY LOWER 80S LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
60S/70S MTNS. IT WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY CLOUD COVER WITH MOSTLY 50S
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 40S MOUNTAINS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A BROAD TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK KEEPING A STREAM OF
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THAT
WILL PROMOTE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS SHOW INCREASING
DIFFERENCES OVER TIME AS TO THE TIMING AND POSITION OF LOWS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES SO CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL FOR ANY
PARTICULAR LOCATION AT A PARTICULAR TIME. INITIALLY A LOW WILL BE IN
NORTHERN NEVADA AND UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE ANOTHER LOW FORMS IN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS WILL GIVE US A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING IN WASHINGTON AND THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS OF OREGON WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. BY SUNDAY THE LOW IN
THE GREAT BASIN WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES WHILE THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
LOW WILL BE IN NORTHERN WASHINGTON. MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE LOW OVER
THE ROCKIES MOVES EAST OUT OF THE AREA BUT THE LOW OVER WASHINGTON
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA IS MAINLY DRY. BY WEDNESDAY THE
MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE GFS RETREATING THE LOW OFFSHORE NEAR ASTORIA
WHERE IT STAYS THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH WEAKENED
LOW OVER IDAHO. HAVE GONE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MOST
OF THE AREA ASIDE FROM THE COLUMBIA BASIN WHICH IS DRY. ALSO HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN
OREGON MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND
MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH MAINLY 60 IN THE MOUNTAINS.
PERRY

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THERE WILL BE SHOWERS CROSSING THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING THEN TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FROM 20Z THIS AFTERNOON TO
04Z THIS EVENING. DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD OCCUR AT ANY TAF SITE TO MENTION THEM IN THE TAFS BUT KBDN AND
KRDM WOULD APPEAR TO HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT CAN CREATE MVFR
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE 5000 FEET
AGL. WINDS WILL MAINLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS EXCEPT FOR GUSTS TO 20
KTS AT KDLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. GUSTY WINDS CAN ALSO
BE ENCOUNTERED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  77  56  74  52 /  50  30  40  50
ALW  79  57  78  55 /  50  40  40  50
PSC  83  59  83  57 /  30  30  40  50
YKM  81  58  78  56 /  30  40  60  40
HRI  82  58  80  56 /  30  30  40  40
ELN  80  56  76  52 /  30  40  60  40
RDM  70  50  69  40 /  70  60  40  20
LGD  71  51  69  50 /  50  40  70  50
GCD  71  46  69  48 /  70  50  70  50
DLS  79  58  76  54 /  50  40  30  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

85/93/93




000
FXUS66 KPDT 211541
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
841 AM PDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...FORECAST ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE THE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UNSTABLE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THE PARENT LOW
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS CIRCULATING WEAK IMPULSES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE AIR MASS IS QUITE MOIST WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 0.75 TO NEAR ONE INCH THIS
AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN OREGON AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. A WEAK
STEERING E-SE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SLOW MOVING STORMS BRINGING
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WILL NEED TO CONSIDER IF HIGHLIGHTS ARE IN
ORDER...AND THE FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL BE UPDATED IF ANY
STATEMENTS ARE ISSUED.  WISTER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM PDT THU MAY 21 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST WILL MOVE EWD TO THE 4-CORNERS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
SMALLER UPPER LOW WILL FORM OFF THE OREGON COAST EARLY SATURDAY AND
TRACK SEWD ACROSS SW OREGON INTO NRN CALIFORNIA. THE NET EFFECT WILL
BE TO KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHEN AND WHERE SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP IS DIFFICULT GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE A
DIURNAL MAXIMUM EACH DAY. FOR TODAY THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE
NAM...SHOW GOOD INSTABILITY BUILDING UP OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
WITH SURFACE CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR
LATER TODAY ALSO SHOW THE LOWER ELEVATIONS UNSTABLE WITH CAPE VALUES
OF 1000 J/KG AND NO CAP. WITH WEAK EASTERLY STEERING FLOW THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS TO PROPAGATE INTO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
VERY WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER TODAY BUT GIVEN THE
MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND GOOD PRECIPITABLE WATER ADDED HEAVY
RAIN AND SMALL HAIL TO THE EASTERN MTNS. MORE OF THE SAME IS
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE LESS UNSTABLE.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND GUSTY IN THE COLUMBIA GORGE
AND KITTITAS VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY SATURDAY MOST
OF THE INSTABILITY WILL BE FOCUSED IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND OVERALL IT LOOKS LESS ACTIVE. TEMPERATURE WILL
START OUT WARM WITH HIGHS TODAY LOWER 80S LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
60S/70S MTNS. IT WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY CLOUD COVER WITH MOSTLY 50S
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 40S MOUNTAINS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A BROAD TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK KEEPING A STREAM OF
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THAT
WILL PROMOTE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS SHOW INCREASING
DIFFERENCES OVER TIME AS TO THE TIMING AND POSITION OF LOWS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES SO CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL FOR ANY
PARTICULAR LOCATION AT A PARTICULAR TIME. INITIALLY A LOW WILL BE IN
NORTHERN NEVADA AND UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE ANOTHER LOW FORMS IN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS WILL GIVE US A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING IN WASHINGTON AND THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS OF OREGON WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. BY SUNDAY THE LOW IN
THE GREAT BASIN WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES WHILE THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
LOW WILL BE IN NORTHERN WASHINGTON. MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE LOW OVER
THE ROCKIES MOVES EAST OUT OF THE AREA BUT THE LOW OVER WASHINGTON
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA IS MAINLY DRY. BY WEDNESDAY THE
MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE GFS RETREATING THE LOW OFFSHORE NEAR ASTORIA
WHERE IT STAYS THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH WEAKENED
LOW OVER IDAHO. HAVE GONE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MOST
OF THE AREA ASIDE FROM THE COLUMBIA BASIN WHICH IS DRY. ALSO HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN
OREGON MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND
MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH MAINLY 60 IN THE MOUNTAINS.
PERRY

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THERE WILL BE SHOWERS CROSSING THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING THEN TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FROM 20Z THIS AFTERNOON TO
04Z THIS EVENING. DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD OCCUR AT ANY TAF SITE TO MENTION THEM IN THE TAFS BUT KBDN AND
KRDM WOULD APPEAR TO HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT CAN CREATE MVFR
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE 5000 FEET
AGL. WINDS WILL MAINLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS EXCEPT FOR GUSTS TO 20
KTS AT KDLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. GUSTY WINDS CAN ALSO
BE ENCOUNTERED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  77  56  74  52 /  50  30  40  50
ALW  79  57  78  55 /  50  40  40  50
PSC  83  59  83  57 /  30  30  40  50
YKM  81  58  78  56 /  30  40  60  40
HRI  82  58  80  56 /  30  30  40  40
ELN  80  56  76  52 /  30  40  60  40
RDM  70  50  69  40 /  70  60  40  20
LGD  71  51  69  50 /  50  40  70  50
GCD  71  46  69  48 /  70  50  70  50
DLS  79  58  76  54 /  50  40  30  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

85/93/93





000
FXUS66 KPDT 211158 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
458 AM PDT THU MAY 21 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST WILL MOVE EWD TO THE 4-CORNERS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
SMALLER UPPER LOW WILL FORM OFF THE OREGON COAST EARLY SATURDAY AND
TRACK SEWD ACROSS SW OREGON INTO NRN CALIFORNIA. THE NET EFFECT WILL
BE TO KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHEN AND WHERE SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP IS DIFFICULT GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE A
DIURNAL MAXIMUM EACH DAY. FOR TODAY THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE
NAM...SHOW GOOD INSTABILITY BUILDING UP OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
WITH SURFACE CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR
LATER TODAY ALSO SHOW THE LOWER ELEVATIONS UNSTABLE WITH CAPE VALUES
OF 1000 J/KG AND NO CAP. WITH WEAK EASTERLY STEERING FLOW THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS TO PROPAGATE INTO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
VERY WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER TODAY BUT GIVEN THE
MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND GOOD PRECIPITABLE WATER ADDED HEAVY
RAIN AND SMALL HAIL TO THE EASTERN MTNS. MORE OF THE SAME IS
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE LESS UNSTABLE.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND GUSTY IN THE COLUMBIA GORGE
AND KITTITAS VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY SATURDAY MOST
OF THE INSTABILITY WILL BE FOCUSED IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND OVERALL IT LOOKS LESS ACTIVE. TEMPERATURE WILL
START OUT WARM WITH HIGHS TODAY LOWER 80S LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
60S/70S MTNS. IT WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY CLOUD COVER WITH MOSTLY 50S
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 40S MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A BROAD TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK KEEPING A STREAM OF
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THAT
WILL PROMOTE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS SHOW INCREASING
DIFFERENCES OVER TIME AS TO THE TIMING AND POSITION OF LOWS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES SO CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL FOR ANY
PARTICULAR LOCATION AT A PARTICULAR TIME. INITIALLY A LOW WILL BE IN
NORTHERN NEVADA AND UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE ANOTHER LOW FORMS IN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS WILL GIVE US A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING IN WASHINGTON AND THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS OF OREGON WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. BY SUNDAY THE LOW IN
THE GREAT BASIN WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES WHILE THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
LOW WILL BE IN NORTHERN WASHINGTON. MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE LOW OVER
THE ROCKIES MOVES EAST OUT OF THE AREA BUT THE LOW OVER WASHINGTON
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA IS MAINLY DRY. BY WEDNESDAY THE
MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE GFS RETREATING THE LOW OFFSHORE NEAR ASTORIA
WHERE IT STAYS THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH WEAKENED
LOW OVER IDAHO. HAVE GONE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MOST
OF THE AREA ASIDE FROM THE COLUMBIA BASIN WHICH IS DRY. ALSO HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN
OREGON MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND
MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH MAINLY 60 IN THE MOUNTAINS.
PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THERE WILL BE SHOWERS CROSSING THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING THEN TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FROM 20Z THIS AFTERNOON TO
04Z THIS EVENING. DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD OCCUR AT ANY TAF SITE TO MENTION THEM IN THE TAFS BUT KBDN AND
KRDM WOULD APPEAR TO HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT CAN CREATE MVFR
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE 5000 FEET
AGL. WINDS WILL MAINLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS EXCEPT FOR GUSTS TO 20
KTS AT KDLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. GUSTY WINDS CAN ALSO
BE ENCOUNTERED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  77  56  74  52 /  50  30  40  50
ALW  79  57  78  55 /  50  40  40  50
PSC  83  59  83  57 /  30  30  40  50
YKM  81  58  78  56 /  30  40  60  40
HRI  82  58  80  56 /  30  30  40  40
ELN  80  56  76  52 /  30  40  60  40
RDM  70  50  69  40 /  70  60  40  20
LGD  71  51  69  50 /  50  40  70  50
GCD  71  46  69  48 /  70  50  70  50
DLS  79  58  76  54 /  50  40  30  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

78/83/83





000
FXUS66 KPDT 211158 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
458 AM PDT THU MAY 21 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST WILL MOVE EWD TO THE 4-CORNERS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
SMALLER UPPER LOW WILL FORM OFF THE OREGON COAST EARLY SATURDAY AND
TRACK SEWD ACROSS SW OREGON INTO NRN CALIFORNIA. THE NET EFFECT WILL
BE TO KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHEN AND WHERE SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP IS DIFFICULT GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE A
DIURNAL MAXIMUM EACH DAY. FOR TODAY THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE
NAM...SHOW GOOD INSTABILITY BUILDING UP OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
WITH SURFACE CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR
LATER TODAY ALSO SHOW THE LOWER ELEVATIONS UNSTABLE WITH CAPE VALUES
OF 1000 J/KG AND NO CAP. WITH WEAK EASTERLY STEERING FLOW THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS TO PROPAGATE INTO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
VERY WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER TODAY BUT GIVEN THE
MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND GOOD PRECIPITABLE WATER ADDED HEAVY
RAIN AND SMALL HAIL TO THE EASTERN MTNS. MORE OF THE SAME IS
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE LESS UNSTABLE.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND GUSTY IN THE COLUMBIA GORGE
AND KITTITAS VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY SATURDAY MOST
OF THE INSTABILITY WILL BE FOCUSED IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND OVERALL IT LOOKS LESS ACTIVE. TEMPERATURE WILL
START OUT WARM WITH HIGHS TODAY LOWER 80S LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
60S/70S MTNS. IT WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY CLOUD COVER WITH MOSTLY 50S
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 40S MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A BROAD TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK KEEPING A STREAM OF
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THAT
WILL PROMOTE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS SHOW INCREASING
DIFFERENCES OVER TIME AS TO THE TIMING AND POSITION OF LOWS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES SO CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL FOR ANY
PARTICULAR LOCATION AT A PARTICULAR TIME. INITIALLY A LOW WILL BE IN
NORTHERN NEVADA AND UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE ANOTHER LOW FORMS IN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS WILL GIVE US A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING IN WASHINGTON AND THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS OF OREGON WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. BY SUNDAY THE LOW IN
THE GREAT BASIN WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES WHILE THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
LOW WILL BE IN NORTHERN WASHINGTON. MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE LOW OVER
THE ROCKIES MOVES EAST OUT OF THE AREA BUT THE LOW OVER WASHINGTON
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA IS MAINLY DRY. BY WEDNESDAY THE
MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE GFS RETREATING THE LOW OFFSHORE NEAR ASTORIA
WHERE IT STAYS THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH WEAKENED
LOW OVER IDAHO. HAVE GONE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MOST
OF THE AREA ASIDE FROM THE COLUMBIA BASIN WHICH IS DRY. ALSO HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN
OREGON MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND
MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH MAINLY 60 IN THE MOUNTAINS.
PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THERE WILL BE SHOWERS CROSSING THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING THEN TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FROM 20Z THIS AFTERNOON TO
04Z THIS EVENING. DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD OCCUR AT ANY TAF SITE TO MENTION THEM IN THE TAFS BUT KBDN AND
KRDM WOULD APPEAR TO HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT CAN CREATE MVFR
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE 5000 FEET
AGL. WINDS WILL MAINLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS EXCEPT FOR GUSTS TO 20
KTS AT KDLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. GUSTY WINDS CAN ALSO
BE ENCOUNTERED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  77  56  74  52 /  50  30  40  50
ALW  79  57  78  55 /  50  40  40  50
PSC  83  59  83  57 /  30  30  40  50
YKM  81  58  78  56 /  30  40  60  40
HRI  82  58  80  56 /  30  30  40  40
ELN  80  56  76  52 /  30  40  60  40
RDM  70  50  69  40 /  70  60  40  20
LGD  71  51  69  50 /  50  40  70  50
GCD  71  46  69  48 /  70  50  70  50
DLS  79  58  76  54 /  50  40  30  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

78/83/83




000
FXUS66 KPDT 211158 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
458 AM PDT THU MAY 21 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST WILL MOVE EWD TO THE 4-CORNERS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
SMALLER UPPER LOW WILL FORM OFF THE OREGON COAST EARLY SATURDAY AND
TRACK SEWD ACROSS SW OREGON INTO NRN CALIFORNIA. THE NET EFFECT WILL
BE TO KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHEN AND WHERE SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP IS DIFFICULT GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE A
DIURNAL MAXIMUM EACH DAY. FOR TODAY THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE
NAM...SHOW GOOD INSTABILITY BUILDING UP OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
WITH SURFACE CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR
LATER TODAY ALSO SHOW THE LOWER ELEVATIONS UNSTABLE WITH CAPE VALUES
OF 1000 J/KG AND NO CAP. WITH WEAK EASTERLY STEERING FLOW THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS TO PROPAGATE INTO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
VERY WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER TODAY BUT GIVEN THE
MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND GOOD PRECIPITABLE WATER ADDED HEAVY
RAIN AND SMALL HAIL TO THE EASTERN MTNS. MORE OF THE SAME IS
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE LESS UNSTABLE.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND GUSTY IN THE COLUMBIA GORGE
AND KITTITAS VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY SATURDAY MOST
OF THE INSTABILITY WILL BE FOCUSED IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND OVERALL IT LOOKS LESS ACTIVE. TEMPERATURE WILL
START OUT WARM WITH HIGHS TODAY LOWER 80S LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
60S/70S MTNS. IT WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY CLOUD COVER WITH MOSTLY 50S
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 40S MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A BROAD TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK KEEPING A STREAM OF
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THAT
WILL PROMOTE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS SHOW INCREASING
DIFFERENCES OVER TIME AS TO THE TIMING AND POSITION OF LOWS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES SO CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL FOR ANY
PARTICULAR LOCATION AT A PARTICULAR TIME. INITIALLY A LOW WILL BE IN
NORTHERN NEVADA AND UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE ANOTHER LOW FORMS IN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS WILL GIVE US A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING IN WASHINGTON AND THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS OF OREGON WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. BY SUNDAY THE LOW IN
THE GREAT BASIN WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES WHILE THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
LOW WILL BE IN NORTHERN WASHINGTON. MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE LOW OVER
THE ROCKIES MOVES EAST OUT OF THE AREA BUT THE LOW OVER WASHINGTON
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA IS MAINLY DRY. BY WEDNESDAY THE
MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE GFS RETREATING THE LOW OFFSHORE NEAR ASTORIA
WHERE IT STAYS THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH WEAKENED
LOW OVER IDAHO. HAVE GONE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MOST
OF THE AREA ASIDE FROM THE COLUMBIA BASIN WHICH IS DRY. ALSO HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN
OREGON MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND
MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH MAINLY 60 IN THE MOUNTAINS.
PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THERE WILL BE SHOWERS CROSSING THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING THEN TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FROM 20Z THIS AFTERNOON TO
04Z THIS EVENING. DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD OCCUR AT ANY TAF SITE TO MENTION THEM IN THE TAFS BUT KBDN AND
KRDM WOULD APPEAR TO HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT CAN CREATE MVFR
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE 5000 FEET
AGL. WINDS WILL MAINLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS EXCEPT FOR GUSTS TO 20
KTS AT KDLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. GUSTY WINDS CAN ALSO
BE ENCOUNTERED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  77  56  74  52 /  50  30  40  50
ALW  79  57  78  55 /  50  40  40  50
PSC  83  59  83  57 /  30  30  40  50
YKM  81  58  78  56 /  30  40  60  40
HRI  82  58  80  56 /  30  30  40  40
ELN  80  56  76  52 /  30  40  60  40
RDM  70  50  69  40 /  70  60  40  20
LGD  71  51  69  50 /  50  40  70  50
GCD  71  46  69  48 /  70  50  70  50
DLS  79  58  76  54 /  50  40  30  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

78/83/83





000
FXUS66 KPDT 211158 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
458 AM PDT THU MAY 21 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST WILL MOVE EWD TO THE 4-CORNERS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
SMALLER UPPER LOW WILL FORM OFF THE OREGON COAST EARLY SATURDAY AND
TRACK SEWD ACROSS SW OREGON INTO NRN CALIFORNIA. THE NET EFFECT WILL
BE TO KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHEN AND WHERE SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP IS DIFFICULT GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE A
DIURNAL MAXIMUM EACH DAY. FOR TODAY THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE
NAM...SHOW GOOD INSTABILITY BUILDING UP OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
WITH SURFACE CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR
LATER TODAY ALSO SHOW THE LOWER ELEVATIONS UNSTABLE WITH CAPE VALUES
OF 1000 J/KG AND NO CAP. WITH WEAK EASTERLY STEERING FLOW THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS TO PROPAGATE INTO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
VERY WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER TODAY BUT GIVEN THE
MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND GOOD PRECIPITABLE WATER ADDED HEAVY
RAIN AND SMALL HAIL TO THE EASTERN MTNS. MORE OF THE SAME IS
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE LESS UNSTABLE.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND GUSTY IN THE COLUMBIA GORGE
AND KITTITAS VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY SATURDAY MOST
OF THE INSTABILITY WILL BE FOCUSED IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND OVERALL IT LOOKS LESS ACTIVE. TEMPERATURE WILL
START OUT WARM WITH HIGHS TODAY LOWER 80S LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
60S/70S MTNS. IT WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY CLOUD COVER WITH MOSTLY 50S
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 40S MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A BROAD TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK KEEPING A STREAM OF
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THAT
WILL PROMOTE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS SHOW INCREASING
DIFFERENCES OVER TIME AS TO THE TIMING AND POSITION OF LOWS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES SO CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL FOR ANY
PARTICULAR LOCATION AT A PARTICULAR TIME. INITIALLY A LOW WILL BE IN
NORTHERN NEVADA AND UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE ANOTHER LOW FORMS IN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS WILL GIVE US A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING IN WASHINGTON AND THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS OF OREGON WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. BY SUNDAY THE LOW IN
THE GREAT BASIN WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES WHILE THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
LOW WILL BE IN NORTHERN WASHINGTON. MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE LOW OVER
THE ROCKIES MOVES EAST OUT OF THE AREA BUT THE LOW OVER WASHINGTON
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA IS MAINLY DRY. BY WEDNESDAY THE
MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE GFS RETREATING THE LOW OFFSHORE NEAR ASTORIA
WHERE IT STAYS THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH WEAKENED
LOW OVER IDAHO. HAVE GONE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MOST
OF THE AREA ASIDE FROM THE COLUMBIA BASIN WHICH IS DRY. ALSO HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN
OREGON MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND
MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH MAINLY 60 IN THE MOUNTAINS.
PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THERE WILL BE SHOWERS CROSSING THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING THEN TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FROM 20Z THIS AFTERNOON TO
04Z THIS EVENING. DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD OCCUR AT ANY TAF SITE TO MENTION THEM IN THE TAFS BUT KBDN AND
KRDM WOULD APPEAR TO HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT CAN CREATE MVFR
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE 5000 FEET
AGL. WINDS WILL MAINLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS EXCEPT FOR GUSTS TO 20
KTS AT KDLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. GUSTY WINDS CAN ALSO
BE ENCOUNTERED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  77  56  74  52 /  50  30  40  50
ALW  79  57  78  55 /  50  40  40  50
PSC  83  59  83  57 /  30  30  40  50
YKM  81  58  78  56 /  30  40  60  40
HRI  82  58  80  56 /  30  30  40  40
ELN  80  56  76  52 /  30  40  60  40
RDM  70  50  69  40 /  70  60  40  20
LGD  71  51  69  50 /  50  40  70  50
GCD  71  46  69  48 /  70  50  70  50
DLS  79  58  76  54 /  50  40  30  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

78/83/83




000
FXUS66 KPDT 211001
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST WILL MOVE EWD TO THE 4-CORNERS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
SMALLER UPPER LOW WILL FORM OFF THE OREGON COAST EARLY SATURDAY AND
TRACK SEWD ACROSS SW OREGON INTO NRN CALIFORNIA. THE NET EFFECT WILL
BE TO KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHEN AND WHERE SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP IS DIFFICULT GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE A
DIURNAL MAXIMUM EACH DAY. FOR TODAY THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE
NAM...SHOW GOOD INSTABILITY BUILDING UP OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
WITH SURFACE CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR
LATER TODAY ALSO SHOW THE LOWER ELEVATIONS UNSTABLE WITH CAPE VALUES
OF 1000 J/KG AND NO CAP. WITH WEAK EASTERLY STEERING FLOW THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS TO PROPAGATE INTO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
VERY WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER TODAY BUT GIVEN THE
MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND GOOD PRECIPITABLE WATER ADDED HEAVY
RAIN AND SMALL HAIL TO THE EASTERN MTNS. MORE OF THE SAME IS
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE LESS UNSTABLE.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND GUSTY IN THE COLUMBIA GORGE
AND KITTITAS VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY SATURDAY MOST
OF THE INSTABILITY WILL BE FOCUSED IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND OVERALL IT LOOKS LESS ACTIVE. TEMPERATURE WILL
START OUT WARM WITH HIGHS TODAY LOWER 80S LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
60S/70S MTNS. IT WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY CLOUD COVER WITH MOSTLY 50S
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 40S MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A BROAD TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK KEEPING A STREAM OF
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THAT
WILL PROMOTE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS SHOW INCREASING
DIFFERENCES OVER TIME AS TO THE TIMING AND POSITION OF LOWS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES SO CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL FOR ANY
PARTICULAR LOCATION AT A PARTICULAR TIME. INITIALLY A LOW WILL BE IN
NORTHERN NEVADA AND UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE ANOTHER LOW FORMS IN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS WILL GIVE US A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING IN WASHINGTON AND THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS OF OREGON WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. BY SUNDAY THE LOW IN
THE GREAT BASIN WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES WHILE THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
LOW WILL BE IN NORTHERN WASHINGTON. MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE LOW OVER
THE ROCKIES MOVES EAST OUT OF THE AREA BUT THE LOW OVER WASHINGTON
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA IS MAINLY DRY. BY WEDNESDAY THE
MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE GFS RETREATING THE LOW OFFSHORE NEAR ASTORIA
WHERE IT STAYS THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH WEAKENED
LOW OVER IDAHO. HAVE GONE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MOST
OF THE AREA ASIDE FROM THE COLUMBIA BASIN WHICH IS DRY. ALSO HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN
OREGON MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND
MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH MAINLY 60 IN THE MOUNTAINS.
PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD AT ALL TERMINAL AIRPORTS. THERE WILL BE
MORE SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THAT COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY AT
KBDN AND KRDM. CONFIDENCE  NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  77  56  74  52 /  50  30  40  50
ALW  79  57  78  55 /  50  40  40  50
PSC  83  59  83  57 /  30  30  40  50
YKM  81  58  78  56 /  30  40  60  40
HRI  82  58  80  56 /  30  30  40  40
ELN  80  56  76  52 /  30  40  60  40
RDM  70  50  69  40 /  70  60  40  20
LGD  71  51  69  50 /  50  40  70  50
GCD  71  46  69  48 /  70  50  70  50
DLS  79  58  76  54 /  50  40  30  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

78/83/83




000
FXUS66 KPDT 211001
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST WILL MOVE EWD TO THE 4-CORNERS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
SMALLER UPPER LOW WILL FORM OFF THE OREGON COAST EARLY SATURDAY AND
TRACK SEWD ACROSS SW OREGON INTO NRN CALIFORNIA. THE NET EFFECT WILL
BE TO KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHEN AND WHERE SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP IS DIFFICULT GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE A
DIURNAL MAXIMUM EACH DAY. FOR TODAY THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE
NAM...SHOW GOOD INSTABILITY BUILDING UP OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
WITH SURFACE CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR
LATER TODAY ALSO SHOW THE LOWER ELEVATIONS UNSTABLE WITH CAPE VALUES
OF 1000 J/KG AND NO CAP. WITH WEAK EASTERLY STEERING FLOW THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS TO PROPAGATE INTO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
VERY WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER TODAY BUT GIVEN THE
MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND GOOD PRECIPITABLE WATER ADDED HEAVY
RAIN AND SMALL HAIL TO THE EASTERN MTNS. MORE OF THE SAME IS
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE LESS UNSTABLE.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND GUSTY IN THE COLUMBIA GORGE
AND KITTITAS VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY SATURDAY MOST
OF THE INSTABILITY WILL BE FOCUSED IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND OVERALL IT LOOKS LESS ACTIVE. TEMPERATURE WILL
START OUT WARM WITH HIGHS TODAY LOWER 80S LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
60S/70S MTNS. IT WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY CLOUD COVER WITH MOSTLY 50S
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 40S MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A BROAD TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK KEEPING A STREAM OF
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THAT
WILL PROMOTE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS SHOW INCREASING
DIFFERENCES OVER TIME AS TO THE TIMING AND POSITION OF LOWS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES SO CONFIDENCE IS BELOW NORMAL FOR ANY
PARTICULAR LOCATION AT A PARTICULAR TIME. INITIALLY A LOW WILL BE IN
NORTHERN NEVADA AND UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE ANOTHER LOW FORMS IN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS WILL GIVE US A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING IN WASHINGTON AND THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS OF OREGON WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. BY SUNDAY THE LOW IN
THE GREAT BASIN WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES WHILE THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
LOW WILL BE IN NORTHERN WASHINGTON. MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE LOW OVER
THE ROCKIES MOVES EAST OUT OF THE AREA BUT THE LOW OVER WASHINGTON
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA IS MAINLY DRY. BY WEDNESDAY THE
MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE GFS RETREATING THE LOW OFFSHORE NEAR ASTORIA
WHERE IT STAYS THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH WEAKENED
LOW OVER IDAHO. HAVE GONE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MOST
OF THE AREA ASIDE FROM THE COLUMBIA BASIN WHICH IS DRY. ALSO HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN
OREGON MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND
MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH MAINLY 60 IN THE MOUNTAINS.
PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD AT ALL TERMINAL AIRPORTS. THERE WILL BE
MORE SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THAT COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY AT
KBDN AND KRDM. CONFIDENCE  NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  77  56  74  52 /  50  30  40  50
ALW  79  57  78  55 /  50  40  40  50
PSC  83  59  83  57 /  30  30  40  50
YKM  81  58  78  56 /  30  40  60  40
HRI  82  58  80  56 /  30  30  40  40
ELN  80  56  76  52 /  30  40  60  40
RDM  70  50  69  40 /  70  60  40  20
LGD  71  51  69  50 /  50  40  70  50
GCD  71  46  69  48 /  70  50  70  50
DLS  79  58  76  54 /  50  40  30  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

78/83/83





000
FXUS66 KPDT 210528
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1027 PM PDT WED MAY 20 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...PERSISTENT PATTERN CONTINUES
WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH
INDIVIDUAL UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ROTATING THROUGH THE
TROUGH. THE LOWS ROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH AND COME INTO
CALIFORNIA AND THEN THE GREAT BASIN. CURRENTLY THERE IS A LOW OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA LIFTING MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT BASIN BACK INTO
OREGON. THIS IS CAUSING SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BUT DECREASE
SOMEWHAT IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMING
TO AN END NOW THAT THE SUN HAS SET. THIS OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS IN
PLACE ON THURSDAY SO EXPECT A REPEAT OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS.

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD
AT ALL TERMINAL AIRPORTS. THERE WILL BE MORE SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT COULD PRODUCE
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY AT KBDN AND KRDM. CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM PDT WED MAY 20 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE E PAC WILL CONTINUE TO USHER MOISTURE INTO THE TWO
STATE AREA INTO THE EVENING AND COMBINING THIS WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL PRODUCE ISOLD TSRA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION INTO THURSDAY.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE AND
OVER THE AREA MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY OVER THE BLUE/WALLOWA MTNS WHERE
A DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THIS AREA TONIGHT. THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DIP SOUTH WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER W CANADA
FORECAST TO DRIFT INTO THE PACNW FRIDAY. THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST INTO THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE GREATEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSRA
SHOULD BE ALONG THE SE FORECAST AREA THAT INCLUDES THE JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS...BLUES/WALLOWAS INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE TWO STATE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST IS POOR. ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT A CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE B.C. COAST
THEN SOUTH ACROSS WA/OR OVER THE WEEKEND...THERE HAVE BEEN
SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES.  THE GFS IS THE FASTEST COMPARED TO
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN.  THE GFS BRINGS THE LOW NEAR THE PUGET
SOUNDE AREA BY SUNRISE ON SATURDAY THEN ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON
SATURDAY EVENING WHERE IT KEEPS THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
OREGON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...EVENTUALLY PUSHING INTO IDAHO ON
MONDAY. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE ABOUT 24 HOURS SLOWER AND ALSO
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN DO
NOT PUSH THE LOW INTO IDAHO UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. KEEPING THIS IN
MIND...THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT FORECAST WILL HAVE AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTN/EVE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL ZONES. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND
UNDER A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT.  ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE AND MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS. WISTER




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  55  75  53  74 /  20  40  30  40
ALW  57  78  55  76 /  20  40  40  30
PSC  56  81  55  80 /  10  10  30  30
YKM  55  80  55  77 /  10  10  30  30
HRI  55  79  55  78 /  20  20  30  40
ELN  53  80  53  75 /   0  10  30  30
RDM  47  69  47  68 /  50  60  40  40
LGD  51  71  51  69 /  40  50  40  50
GCD  50  71  48  68 /  70  60  50  60
DLS  57  81  55  74 /  10  20  30  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/91/91




000
FXUS66 KPDT 210528
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1027 PM PDT WED MAY 20 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...PERSISTENT PATTERN CONTINUES
WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH
INDIVIDUAL UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ROTATING THROUGH THE
TROUGH. THE LOWS ROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH AND COME INTO
CALIFORNIA AND THEN THE GREAT BASIN. CURRENTLY THERE IS A LOW OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA LIFTING MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT BASIN BACK INTO
OREGON. THIS IS CAUSING SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BUT DECREASE
SOMEWHAT IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMING
TO AN END NOW THAT THE SUN HAS SET. THIS OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS IN
PLACE ON THURSDAY SO EXPECT A REPEAT OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS.

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD
AT ALL TERMINAL AIRPORTS. THERE WILL BE MORE SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT COULD PRODUCE
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY AT KBDN AND KRDM. CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM PDT WED MAY 20 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE E PAC WILL CONTINUE TO USHER MOISTURE INTO THE TWO
STATE AREA INTO THE EVENING AND COMBINING THIS WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL PRODUCE ISOLD TSRA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION INTO THURSDAY.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE AND
OVER THE AREA MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY OVER THE BLUE/WALLOWA MTNS WHERE
A DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THIS AREA TONIGHT. THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DIP SOUTH WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER W CANADA
FORECAST TO DRIFT INTO THE PACNW FRIDAY. THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST INTO THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE GREATEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSRA
SHOULD BE ALONG THE SE FORECAST AREA THAT INCLUDES THE JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS...BLUES/WALLOWAS INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE TWO STATE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST IS POOR. ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT A CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE B.C. COAST
THEN SOUTH ACROSS WA/OR OVER THE WEEKEND...THERE HAVE BEEN
SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES.  THE GFS IS THE FASTEST COMPARED TO
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN.  THE GFS BRINGS THE LOW NEAR THE PUGET
SOUNDE AREA BY SUNRISE ON SATURDAY THEN ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON
SATURDAY EVENING WHERE IT KEEPS THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
OREGON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...EVENTUALLY PUSHING INTO IDAHO ON
MONDAY. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE ABOUT 24 HOURS SLOWER AND ALSO
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN DO
NOT PUSH THE LOW INTO IDAHO UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. KEEPING THIS IN
MIND...THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT FORECAST WILL HAVE AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTN/EVE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL ZONES. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND
UNDER A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT.  ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE AND MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS. WISTER




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  55  75  53  74 /  20  40  30  40
ALW  57  78  55  76 /  20  40  40  30
PSC  56  81  55  80 /  10  10  30  30
YKM  55  80  55  77 /  10  10  30  30
HRI  55  79  55  78 /  20  20  30  40
ELN  53  80  53  75 /   0  10  30  30
RDM  47  69  47  68 /  50  60  40  40
LGD  51  71  51  69 /  40  50  40  50
GCD  50  71  48  68 /  70  60  50  60
DLS  57  81  55  74 /  10  20  30  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/91/91





000
FXUS66 KPDT 210528
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1027 PM PDT WED MAY 20 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...PERSISTENT PATTERN CONTINUES
WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH
INDIVIDUAL UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ROTATING THROUGH THE
TROUGH. THE LOWS ROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH AND COME INTO
CALIFORNIA AND THEN THE GREAT BASIN. CURRENTLY THERE IS A LOW OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA LIFTING MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT BASIN BACK INTO
OREGON. THIS IS CAUSING SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BUT DECREASE
SOMEWHAT IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMING
TO AN END NOW THAT THE SUN HAS SET. THIS OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS IN
PLACE ON THURSDAY SO EXPECT A REPEAT OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS.

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD
AT ALL TERMINAL AIRPORTS. THERE WILL BE MORE SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT COULD PRODUCE
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY AT KBDN AND KRDM. CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM PDT WED MAY 20 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE E PAC WILL CONTINUE TO USHER MOISTURE INTO THE TWO
STATE AREA INTO THE EVENING AND COMBINING THIS WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL PRODUCE ISOLD TSRA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION INTO THURSDAY.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE AND
OVER THE AREA MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY OVER THE BLUE/WALLOWA MTNS WHERE
A DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THIS AREA TONIGHT. THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DIP SOUTH WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER W CANADA
FORECAST TO DRIFT INTO THE PACNW FRIDAY. THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST INTO THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE GREATEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSRA
SHOULD BE ALONG THE SE FORECAST AREA THAT INCLUDES THE JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS...BLUES/WALLOWAS INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE TWO STATE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST IS POOR. ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT A CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE B.C. COAST
THEN SOUTH ACROSS WA/OR OVER THE WEEKEND...THERE HAVE BEEN
SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES.  THE GFS IS THE FASTEST COMPARED TO
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN.  THE GFS BRINGS THE LOW NEAR THE PUGET
SOUNDE AREA BY SUNRISE ON SATURDAY THEN ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON
SATURDAY EVENING WHERE IT KEEPS THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
OREGON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...EVENTUALLY PUSHING INTO IDAHO ON
MONDAY. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE ABOUT 24 HOURS SLOWER AND ALSO
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN DO
NOT PUSH THE LOW INTO IDAHO UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. KEEPING THIS IN
MIND...THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT FORECAST WILL HAVE AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTN/EVE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL ZONES. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND
UNDER A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT.  ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE AND MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS. WISTER




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  55  75  53  74 /  20  40  30  40
ALW  57  78  55  76 /  20  40  40  30
PSC  56  81  55  80 /  10  10  30  30
YKM  55  80  55  77 /  10  10  30  30
HRI  55  79  55  78 /  20  20  30  40
ELN  53  80  53  75 /   0  10  30  30
RDM  47  69  47  68 /  50  60  40  40
LGD  51  71  51  69 /  40  50  40  50
GCD  50  71  48  68 /  70  60  50  60
DLS  57  81  55  74 /  10  20  30  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/91/91




000
FXUS66 KPDT 210352
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
841 PM PDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...PERSISTENT PATTERN CONTINUES
WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH
INDIVIDUAL UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ROTATING THROUGH THE
TROUGH. THE LOWS ROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH AND COME INTO
CALIFORNIA AND THEN THE GREAT BASIN. CURRENTLY THERE IS A LOW OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA LIFTING MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT BASIN BACK INTO
OREGON. THIS IS CAUSING SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BUT DECREASE
SOMEWHAT IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMING
TO AN END NOW THAT THE SUN HAS SET. THIS OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS IN
PLACE ON THURSDAY SO EXPECT A REPEAT OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM PDT WED MAY 20 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE E PAC WILL CONTINUE TO USHER MOISTURE INTO THE TWO
STATE AREA INTO THE EVENING AND COMBINING THIS WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL PRODUCE ISOLD TSRA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION INTO THURSDAY.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE AND
OVER THE AREA MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY OVER THE BLUE/WALLOWA MTNS WHERE
A DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THIS AREA TONIGHT. THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DIP SOUTH WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER W CANADA
FORECAST TO DRIFT INTO THE PACNW FRIDAY. THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST INTO THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE GREATEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSRA
SHOULD BE ALONG THE SE FORECAST AREA THAT INCLUDES THE JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS...BLUES/WALLOWAS INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE TWO STATE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST IS POOR. ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT A CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE B.C. COAST
THEN SOUTH ACROSS WA/OR OVER THE WEEKEND...THERE HAVE BEEN
SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES.  THE GFS IS THE FASTEST COMPARED TO
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN.  THE GFS BRINGS THE LOW NEAR THE PUGET
SOUNDE AREA BY SUNRISE ON SATURDAY THEN ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON
SATURDAY EVENING WHERE IT KEEPS THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
OREGON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...EVENTUALLY PUSHING INTO IDAHO ON
MONDAY. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE ABOUT 24 HOURS SLOWER AND ALSO
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN DO
NOT PUSH THE LOW INTO IDAHO UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. KEEPING THIS IN
MIND...THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT FORECAST WILL HAVE AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTN/EVE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL ZONES. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND
UNDER A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT.  ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE AND MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS. WISTER


AVIATION...00Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD
AT ALL TERMINAL AIRPORTS...BUT THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO SHOWERS...MAINLY AT KBDN AND KRDM. CIGS WILL VARY
FROM 4000-10000 FEET AGL...AND TOWERING CUMULUS OR CB CLOUDS MAY
CREATE AVIATION CONCERNS THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE TSTMS IN THE TAFS.  BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE SOUTH OF THE WA/OR BORDER.  WISTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  55  75  53  74 /  20  40  30  40
ALW  57  78  55  76 /  20  40  40  30
PSC  56  81  55  80 /  10  10  30  30
YKM  55  80  55  77 /  10  10  30  30
HRI  55  79  55  78 /  20  20  30  40
ELN  53  80  53  75 /   0  10  30  30
RDM  47  69  47  68 /  50  60  40  40
LGD  51  71  51  69 /  40  50  40  50
GCD  50  71  48  68 /  70  60  50  60
DLS  57  81  55  74 /  10  20  30  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/91/91




000
FXUS66 KPDT 210352
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
841 PM PDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...PERSISTENT PATTERN CONTINUES
WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH
INDIVIDUAL UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ROTATING THROUGH THE
TROUGH. THE LOWS ROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH AND COME INTO
CALIFORNIA AND THEN THE GREAT BASIN. CURRENTLY THERE IS A LOW OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA LIFTING MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT BASIN BACK INTO
OREGON. THIS IS CAUSING SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BUT DECREASE
SOMEWHAT IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMING
TO AN END NOW THAT THE SUN HAS SET. THIS OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS IN
PLACE ON THURSDAY SO EXPECT A REPEAT OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM PDT WED MAY 20 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE E PAC WILL CONTINUE TO USHER MOISTURE INTO THE TWO
STATE AREA INTO THE EVENING AND COMBINING THIS WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL PRODUCE ISOLD TSRA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION INTO THURSDAY.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE AND
OVER THE AREA MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY OVER THE BLUE/WALLOWA MTNS WHERE
A DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THIS AREA TONIGHT. THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DIP SOUTH WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER W CANADA
FORECAST TO DRIFT INTO THE PACNW FRIDAY. THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST INTO THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE GREATEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSRA
SHOULD BE ALONG THE SE FORECAST AREA THAT INCLUDES THE JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS...BLUES/WALLOWAS INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE TWO STATE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST IS POOR. ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT A CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE B.C. COAST
THEN SOUTH ACROSS WA/OR OVER THE WEEKEND...THERE HAVE BEEN
SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES.  THE GFS IS THE FASTEST COMPARED TO
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN.  THE GFS BRINGS THE LOW NEAR THE PUGET
SOUNDE AREA BY SUNRISE ON SATURDAY THEN ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON
SATURDAY EVENING WHERE IT KEEPS THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
OREGON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...EVENTUALLY PUSHING INTO IDAHO ON
MONDAY. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE ABOUT 24 HOURS SLOWER AND ALSO
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN DO
NOT PUSH THE LOW INTO IDAHO UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. KEEPING THIS IN
MIND...THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT FORECAST WILL HAVE AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTN/EVE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL ZONES. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND
UNDER A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT.  ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE AND MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS. WISTER


AVIATION...00Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD
AT ALL TERMINAL AIRPORTS...BUT THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO SHOWERS...MAINLY AT KBDN AND KRDM. CIGS WILL VARY
FROM 4000-10000 FEET AGL...AND TOWERING CUMULUS OR CB CLOUDS MAY
CREATE AVIATION CONCERNS THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE TSTMS IN THE TAFS.  BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE SOUTH OF THE WA/OR BORDER.  WISTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  55  75  53  74 /  20  40  30  40
ALW  57  78  55  76 /  20  40  40  30
PSC  56  81  55  80 /  10  10  30  30
YKM  55  80  55  77 /  10  10  30  30
HRI  55  79  55  78 /  20  20  30  40
ELN  53  80  53  75 /   0  10  30  30
RDM  47  69  47  68 /  50  60  40  40
LGD  51  71  51  69 /  40  50  40  50
GCD  50  71  48  68 /  70  60  50  60
DLS  57  81  55  74 /  10  20  30  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/91/91





000
FXUS66 KPDT 202208 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
310 PM PDT WED MAY 20 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE E PAC WILL CONTINUE TO USHER MOISTURE INTO THE TWO
STATE AREA INTO THE EVENING AND COMBINING THIS WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL PRODUCE ISOLD TSRA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION INTO THURSDAY.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE AND
OVER THE AREA MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY OVER THE BLUE/WALLOWA MTNS WHERE
A DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THIS AREA TONIGHT. THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DIP SOUTH WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER W CANADA
FORECAST TO DRIFT INTO THE PACNW FRIDAY. THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST INTO THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE GREATEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSRA
SHOULD BE ALONG THE SE FORECAST AREA THAT INCLUDES THE JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS...BLUES/WALLOWAS INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE TWO STATE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST IS POOR. ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT A CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE B.C. COAST
THEN SOUTH ACROSS WA/OR OVER THE WEEKEND...THERE HAVE BEEN
SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES.  THE GFS IS THE FASTEST COMPARED TO
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN.  THE GFS BRINGS THE LOW NEAR THE PUGET
SOUNDE AREA BY SUNRISE ON SATURDAY THEN ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON
SATURDAY EVENING WHERE IT KEEPS THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
OREGON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...EVENTUALLY PUSHING INTO IDAHO ON
MONDAY. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE ABOUT 24 HOURS SLOWER AND ALSO
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN DO
NOT PUSH THE LOW INTO IDAHO UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. KEEPING THIS IN
MIND...THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT FORECAST WILL HAVE AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTN/EVE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL ZONES. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND
UNDER A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT.  ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE AND MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS. WISTER

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD
AT ALL TERMINAL AIRPORTS...BUT THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO SHOWERS...MAINLY AT KBDN AND KRDM. CIGS WILL VARY
FROM 4000-10000 FEET AGL...AND TOWERING CUMULUS OR CB CLOUDS MAY
CREATE AVIATION CONCERNS THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE TSTMS IN THE TAFS.  BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE SOUTH OF THE WA/OR BORDER.  WISTER


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  54  76  53  74 /  30  40  30  40
ALW  54  77  55  76 /  30  40  40  30
PSC  55  81  55  80 /  10  30  30  30
YKM  53  80  55  77 /  10  20  30  30
HRI  56  79  55  78 /  20  30  30  40
ELN  50  78  53  75 /  10  30  30  30
RDM  48  71  47  68 /  50  60  40  40
LGD  50  72  51  69 /  40  50  40  50
GCD  47  70  48  68 /  60  60  50  60
DLS  57  79  55  74 /  40  30  30  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/85/85




000
FXUS66 KPDT 202208 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
310 PM PDT WED MAY 20 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE E PAC WILL CONTINUE TO USHER MOISTURE INTO THE TWO
STATE AREA INTO THE EVENING AND COMBINING THIS WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL PRODUCE ISOLD TSRA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION INTO THURSDAY.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE AND
OVER THE AREA MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY OVER THE BLUE/WALLOWA MTNS WHERE
A DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THIS AREA TONIGHT. THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DIP SOUTH WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER W CANADA
FORECAST TO DRIFT INTO THE PACNW FRIDAY. THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST INTO THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE GREATEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSRA
SHOULD BE ALONG THE SE FORECAST AREA THAT INCLUDES THE JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS...BLUES/WALLOWAS INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE TWO STATE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST IS POOR. ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT A CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE B.C. COAST
THEN SOUTH ACROSS WA/OR OVER THE WEEKEND...THERE HAVE BEEN
SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES.  THE GFS IS THE FASTEST COMPARED TO
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN.  THE GFS BRINGS THE LOW NEAR THE PUGET
SOUNDE AREA BY SUNRISE ON SATURDAY THEN ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON
SATURDAY EVENING WHERE IT KEEPS THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
OREGON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...EVENTUALLY PUSHING INTO IDAHO ON
MONDAY. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE ABOUT 24 HOURS SLOWER AND ALSO
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN DO
NOT PUSH THE LOW INTO IDAHO UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. KEEPING THIS IN
MIND...THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT FORECAST WILL HAVE AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTN/EVE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL ZONES. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND
UNDER A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT.  ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE AND MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS. WISTER

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD
AT ALL TERMINAL AIRPORTS...BUT THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO SHOWERS...MAINLY AT KBDN AND KRDM. CIGS WILL VARY
FROM 4000-10000 FEET AGL...AND TOWERING CUMULUS OR CB CLOUDS MAY
CREATE AVIATION CONCERNS THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE TSTMS IN THE TAFS.  BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE SOUTH OF THE WA/OR BORDER.  WISTER


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  54  76  53  74 /  30  40  30  40
ALW  54  77  55  76 /  30  40  40  30
PSC  55  81  55  80 /  10  30  30  30
YKM  53  80  55  77 /  10  20  30  30
HRI  56  79  55  78 /  20  30  30  40
ELN  50  78  53  75 /  10  30  30  30
RDM  48  71  47  68 /  50  60  40  40
LGD  50  72  51  69 /  40  50  40  50
GCD  47  70  48  68 /  60  60  50  60
DLS  57  79  55  74 /  40  30  30  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/85/85





000
FXUS66 KPDT 202111
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
215 PM PDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE E PAC WILL CONTINUE TO USHER MOISTURE INTO THE TWO
STATE AREA INTO THE EVENING AND COMBINING THIS WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL PRODUCE ISOLD TSRA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION INTO THURSDAY.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE AND
OVER THE AREA MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY OVER THE BLUE/WALLOWA MTNS WHERE
A DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THIS AREA TONIGHT. THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DIP SOUTH WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER W CANADA
FORECAST TO DRIFT INTO THE PACNW FRIDAY. THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST INTO THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE GREATEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSRA
SHOULD BE ALONG THE SE FORECAST AREA THAT INCLUDES THE JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS...BLUES/WALLOWAS INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE TWO STATE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST IS POOR. ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT A CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE B.C. COAST
THEN SOUTH ACROSS WA/OR OVER THE WEEKEND...THERE HAVE BEEN
SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES.  THE GFS IS THE FASTEST COMPARED TO
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN.  THE GFS BRINGS THE LOW NEAR THE PUGET
SOUNDE AREA BY SUNRISE ON SATURDAY THEN ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON
SATURDAY EVENING WHERE IT KEEPS THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
OREGON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...EVENTUALLY PUSHING INTO IDAHO ON
MONDAY. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE ABOUT 24 HOURS SLOWER AND ALSO
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN DO
NOT PUSH THE LOW INTO IDAHO UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. KEEPING THIS IN
MIND...THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT FORECAST WILL HAVE AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTN/EVE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL ZONES. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND
UNDER A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT.  ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE AND MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS. WISTER

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION). VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD AT ALL TERMINAL AIRPORTS...BUT THERE COULD
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SHOWERS.  CIGS WILL VARY
FROM 6000-12000 FEET AGL. CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL ALSO BECOME VERTICALLY
DEVELOPED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH A FEW TOWERING CUMULUS AND CB
CLOUDS IN THE AREA.  CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE TSTMS
IN THE TAFS.  BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE WA/OR
BORDER.  WISTER


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  54  76  53  74 /  30  40  30  40
ALW  54  77  55  76 /  30  40  40  30
PSC  55  81  55  80 /  10  30  30  30
YKM  53  80  55  77 /  10  20  30  30
HRI  56  79  55  78 /  20  30  30  40
ELN  50  78  53  75 /  10  30  30  30
RDM  48  71  47  68 /  50  60  40  40
LGD  50  72  51  69 /  40  50  40  50
GCD  47  70  48  68 /  60  60  50  60
DLS  57  79  55  74 /  40  30  30  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/85/85




000
FXUS66 KPDT 202111
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
215 PM PDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE E PAC WILL CONTINUE TO USHER MOISTURE INTO THE TWO
STATE AREA INTO THE EVENING AND COMBINING THIS WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL PRODUCE ISOLD TSRA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION INTO THURSDAY.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE AND
OVER THE AREA MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY OVER THE BLUE/WALLOWA MTNS WHERE
A DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THIS AREA TONIGHT. THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DIP SOUTH WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER W CANADA
FORECAST TO DRIFT INTO THE PACNW FRIDAY. THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST INTO THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE GREATEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSRA
SHOULD BE ALONG THE SE FORECAST AREA THAT INCLUDES THE JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS...BLUES/WALLOWAS INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE TWO STATE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST IS POOR. ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT A CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE B.C. COAST
THEN SOUTH ACROSS WA/OR OVER THE WEEKEND...THERE HAVE BEEN
SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES.  THE GFS IS THE FASTEST COMPARED TO
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN.  THE GFS BRINGS THE LOW NEAR THE PUGET
SOUNDE AREA BY SUNRISE ON SATURDAY THEN ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON
SATURDAY EVENING WHERE IT KEEPS THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
OREGON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...EVENTUALLY PUSHING INTO IDAHO ON
MONDAY. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE ABOUT 24 HOURS SLOWER AND ALSO
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN DO
NOT PUSH THE LOW INTO IDAHO UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. KEEPING THIS IN
MIND...THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT FORECAST WILL HAVE AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTN/EVE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL ZONES. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND
UNDER A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT.  ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE AND MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS. WISTER

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION). VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD AT ALL TERMINAL AIRPORTS...BUT THERE COULD
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SHOWERS.  CIGS WILL VARY
FROM 6000-12000 FEET AGL. CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL ALSO BECOME VERTICALLY
DEVELOPED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH A FEW TOWERING CUMULUS AND CB
CLOUDS IN THE AREA.  CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE TSTMS
IN THE TAFS.  BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE WA/OR
BORDER.  WISTER


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  54  76  53  74 /  30  40  30  40
ALW  54  77  55  76 /  30  40  40  30
PSC  55  81  55  80 /  10  30  30  30
YKM  53  80  55  77 /  10  20  30  30
HRI  56  79  55  78 /  20  30  30  40
ELN  50  78  53  75 /  10  30  30  30
RDM  48  71  47  68 /  50  60  40  40
LGD  50  72  51  69 /  40  50  40  50
GCD  47  70  48  68 /  60  60  50  60
DLS  57  79  55  74 /  40  30  30  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/85/85




000
FXUS66 KPDT 202111
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
215 PM PDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE E PAC WILL CONTINUE TO USHER MOISTURE INTO THE TWO
STATE AREA INTO THE EVENING AND COMBINING THIS WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL PRODUCE ISOLD TSRA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION INTO THURSDAY.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE AND
OVER THE AREA MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY OVER THE BLUE/WALLOWA MTNS WHERE
A DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THIS AREA TONIGHT. THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DIP SOUTH WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER W CANADA
FORECAST TO DRIFT INTO THE PACNW FRIDAY. THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST INTO THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE GREATEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSRA
SHOULD BE ALONG THE SE FORECAST AREA THAT INCLUDES THE JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS...BLUES/WALLOWAS INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE TWO STATE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST IS POOR. ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT A CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE B.C. COAST
THEN SOUTH ACROSS WA/OR OVER THE WEEKEND...THERE HAVE BEEN
SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES.  THE GFS IS THE FASTEST COMPARED TO
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN.  THE GFS BRINGS THE LOW NEAR THE PUGET
SOUNDE AREA BY SUNRISE ON SATURDAY THEN ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON
SATURDAY EVENING WHERE IT KEEPS THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
OREGON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...EVENTUALLY PUSHING INTO IDAHO ON
MONDAY. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE ABOUT 24 HOURS SLOWER AND ALSO
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN DO
NOT PUSH THE LOW INTO IDAHO UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. KEEPING THIS IN
MIND...THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT FORECAST WILL HAVE AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTN/EVE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL ZONES. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND
UNDER A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT.  ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE AND MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS. WISTER

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION). VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD AT ALL TERMINAL AIRPORTS...BUT THERE COULD
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SHOWERS.  CIGS WILL VARY
FROM 6000-12000 FEET AGL. CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL ALSO BECOME VERTICALLY
DEVELOPED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH A FEW TOWERING CUMULUS AND CB
CLOUDS IN THE AREA.  CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE TSTMS
IN THE TAFS.  BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE WA/OR
BORDER.  WISTER


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  54  76  53  74 /  30  40  30  40
ALW  54  77  55  76 /  30  40  40  30
PSC  55  81  55  80 /  10  30  30  30
YKM  53  80  55  77 /  10  20  30  30
HRI  56  79  55  78 /  20  30  30  40
ELN  50  78  53  75 /  10  30  30  30
RDM  48  71  47  68 /  50  60  40  40
LGD  50  72  51  69 /  40  50  40  50
GCD  47  70  48  68 /  60  60  50  60
DLS  57  79  55  74 /  40  30  30  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/85/85





000
FXUS66 KPDT 201733 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1035 AM PDT WED MAY 20 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE E PAC WILL CONTINUE TO USHER
MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA TODAY. THE CURRENT RADAR WAS INDICATING
SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE ZONES WERE UPDATED
TO REFLECT THIS INTO THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE THE COMBINATION OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ISOLD TSRA MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE OR/WA STATE LINE AND OVER THE AREA MOUNTAINS. AFTN
TEMPS WERE MODIFIED AND THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST APPEARS ON
TRACK FOR TODAY.

&&

AVIATION...18Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD
AT ALL TERMINAL AIRPORTS...BUT THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO SHOWERS.  CIGS WILL VARY FROM 6000-12000 FEET AGL.
CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL ALSO BECOME VERTICALLY DEVELOPED AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES WITH A FEW TOWERING CUMULUS AND CB CLOUDS IN THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE TSTMS IN THE TAFS.  BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE WA/OR BORDER.  WISTER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM PDT WED MAY 20 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A LARGE BROAD UPPER LOW IS
CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WHILE ANOTHER IS
SITTING OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THESE LOWS ARE NOT WELL
DEFINED...HOWEVER THEY DO HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH
THEM TO CAUSE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
GRANT COUNTY AT THIS TIME AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THIS
MORNING. ELSEWHERE IT IS DRY FOR NOW. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
CAPE AND NEGATIVE LI`S TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES AS WELL AS OVER CENTRAL OREGON.
THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING UNSTABLE EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALLOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS TO WARRANT
POSSIBLE THUNDER ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND MOSTLY 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. 88

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A PERSISTENT TROUGH REMAINS
OVER THE WESTERN STATES. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL SEE A LOW
MOVE FROM ARIZONA TO THE ROCKIES WHILE ANOTHER LOW SINKS SOUTH TO
THE WASHINGTON/OREGON COAST. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER
THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
EVENING. ON SATURDAY, A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EXCEPT FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OREGON WHICH WILL DRY OUT. THE REST OF THE
AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL SEE THE LOW IN THE ROCKIES
LIFT INTO CANADA WHILE THE LOW ALONG THE COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN NEVADA BY MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY
PERIOD IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHILE THE EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
THE MODELS HAVE DIFFERENCES BUT IN GENERAL SHOW WEAK AND POORLY
ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED THE FORECAST OF
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA IS
DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IN THE 60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. PERRY



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  71  53  77  55 /  20  30  40  30
ALW  75  54  78  57 /  20  30  40  40
PSC  77  55  82  57 /  10  10  30  30
YKM  80  53  81  57 /   0  10  30  20
HRI  78  56  80  57 /  10  20  30  30
ELN  80  52  79  55 /  10  10  30  20
RDM  65  50  72  49 /  40  50  50  40
LGD  66  50  73  53 /  30  40  50  40
GCD  65  47  71  50 /  50  60  60  50
DLS  79  57  80  57 /  30  20  30  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/




000
FXUS66 KPDT 201733 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1035 AM PDT WED MAY 20 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE E PAC WILL CONTINUE TO USHER
MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA TODAY. THE CURRENT RADAR WAS INDICATING
SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE ZONES WERE UPDATED
TO REFLECT THIS INTO THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE THE COMBINATION OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ISOLD TSRA MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE OR/WA STATE LINE AND OVER THE AREA MOUNTAINS. AFTN
TEMPS WERE MODIFIED AND THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST APPEARS ON
TRACK FOR TODAY.

&&

AVIATION...18Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD
AT ALL TERMINAL AIRPORTS...BUT THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO SHOWERS.  CIGS WILL VARY FROM 6000-12000 FEET AGL.
CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL ALSO BECOME VERTICALLY DEVELOPED AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES WITH A FEW TOWERING CUMULUS AND CB CLOUDS IN THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE TSTMS IN THE TAFS.  BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE WA/OR BORDER.  WISTER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM PDT WED MAY 20 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A LARGE BROAD UPPER LOW IS
CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WHILE ANOTHER IS
SITTING OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THESE LOWS ARE NOT WELL
DEFINED...HOWEVER THEY DO HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH
THEM TO CAUSE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
GRANT COUNTY AT THIS TIME AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THIS
MORNING. ELSEWHERE IT IS DRY FOR NOW. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
CAPE AND NEGATIVE LI`S TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES AS WELL AS OVER CENTRAL OREGON.
THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING UNSTABLE EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALLOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS TO WARRANT
POSSIBLE THUNDER ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND MOSTLY 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. 88

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A PERSISTENT TROUGH REMAINS
OVER THE WESTERN STATES. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL SEE A LOW
MOVE FROM ARIZONA TO THE ROCKIES WHILE ANOTHER LOW SINKS SOUTH TO
THE WASHINGTON/OREGON COAST. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER
THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
EVENING. ON SATURDAY, A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EXCEPT FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OREGON WHICH WILL DRY OUT. THE REST OF THE
AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL SEE THE LOW IN THE ROCKIES
LIFT INTO CANADA WHILE THE LOW ALONG THE COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN NEVADA BY MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY
PERIOD IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHILE THE EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
THE MODELS HAVE DIFFERENCES BUT IN GENERAL SHOW WEAK AND POORLY
ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED THE FORECAST OF
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA IS
DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IN THE 60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. PERRY



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  71  53  77  55 /  20  30  40  30
ALW  75  54  78  57 /  20  30  40  40
PSC  77  55  82  57 /  10  10  30  30
YKM  80  53  81  57 /   0  10  30  20
HRI  78  56  80  57 /  10  20  30  30
ELN  80  52  79  55 /  10  10  30  20
RDM  65  50  72  49 /  40  50  50  40
LGD  66  50  73  53 /  30  40  50  40
GCD  65  47  71  50 /  50  60  60  50
DLS  79  57  80  57 /  30  20  30  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/





000
FXUS66 KPDT 201733 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1035 AM PDT WED MAY 20 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE E PAC WILL CONTINUE TO USHER
MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA TODAY. THE CURRENT RADAR WAS INDICATING
SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE ZONES WERE UPDATED
TO REFLECT THIS INTO THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE THE COMBINATION OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ISOLD TSRA MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE OR/WA STATE LINE AND OVER THE AREA MOUNTAINS. AFTN
TEMPS WERE MODIFIED AND THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST APPEARS ON
TRACK FOR TODAY.

&&

AVIATION...18Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD
AT ALL TERMINAL AIRPORTS...BUT THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO SHOWERS.  CIGS WILL VARY FROM 6000-12000 FEET AGL.
CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL ALSO BECOME VERTICALLY DEVELOPED AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES WITH A FEW TOWERING CUMULUS AND CB CLOUDS IN THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE TSTMS IN THE TAFS.  BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE WA/OR BORDER.  WISTER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM PDT WED MAY 20 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A LARGE BROAD UPPER LOW IS
CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WHILE ANOTHER IS
SITTING OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THESE LOWS ARE NOT WELL
DEFINED...HOWEVER THEY DO HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH
THEM TO CAUSE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
GRANT COUNTY AT THIS TIME AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THIS
MORNING. ELSEWHERE IT IS DRY FOR NOW. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
CAPE AND NEGATIVE LI`S TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES AS WELL AS OVER CENTRAL OREGON.
THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING UNSTABLE EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALLOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS TO WARRANT
POSSIBLE THUNDER ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND MOSTLY 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. 88

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A PERSISTENT TROUGH REMAINS
OVER THE WESTERN STATES. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL SEE A LOW
MOVE FROM ARIZONA TO THE ROCKIES WHILE ANOTHER LOW SINKS SOUTH TO
THE WASHINGTON/OREGON COAST. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER
THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
EVENING. ON SATURDAY, A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EXCEPT FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OREGON WHICH WILL DRY OUT. THE REST OF THE
AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL SEE THE LOW IN THE ROCKIES
LIFT INTO CANADA WHILE THE LOW ALONG THE COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN NEVADA BY MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY
PERIOD IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHILE THE EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
THE MODELS HAVE DIFFERENCES BUT IN GENERAL SHOW WEAK AND POORLY
ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED THE FORECAST OF
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA IS
DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IN THE 60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. PERRY



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  71  53  77  55 /  20  30  40  30
ALW  75  54  78  57 /  20  30  40  40
PSC  77  55  82  57 /  10  10  30  30
YKM  80  53  81  57 /   0  10  30  20
HRI  78  56  80  57 /  10  20  30  30
ELN  80  52  79  55 /  10  10  30  20
RDM  65  50  72  49 /  40  50  50  40
LGD  66  50  73  53 /  30  40  50  40
GCD  65  47  71  50 /  50  60  60  50
DLS  79  57  80  57 /  30  20  30  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/




000
FXUS66 KPDT 201733 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1035 AM PDT WED MAY 20 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE E PAC WILL CONTINUE TO USHER
MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA TODAY. THE CURRENT RADAR WAS INDICATING
SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE ZONES WERE UPDATED
TO REFLECT THIS INTO THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE THE COMBINATION OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ISOLD TSRA MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE OR/WA STATE LINE AND OVER THE AREA MOUNTAINS. AFTN
TEMPS WERE MODIFIED AND THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST APPEARS ON
TRACK FOR TODAY.

&&

AVIATION...18Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD
AT ALL TERMINAL AIRPORTS...BUT THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO SHOWERS.  CIGS WILL VARY FROM 6000-12000 FEET AGL.
CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL ALSO BECOME VERTICALLY DEVELOPED AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES WITH A FEW TOWERING CUMULUS AND CB CLOUDS IN THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE TSTMS IN THE TAFS.  BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE WA/OR BORDER.  WISTER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM PDT WED MAY 20 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A LARGE BROAD UPPER LOW IS
CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WHILE ANOTHER IS
SITTING OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THESE LOWS ARE NOT WELL
DEFINED...HOWEVER THEY DO HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH
THEM TO CAUSE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
GRANT COUNTY AT THIS TIME AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THIS
MORNING. ELSEWHERE IT IS DRY FOR NOW. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
CAPE AND NEGATIVE LI`S TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES AS WELL AS OVER CENTRAL OREGON.
THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING UNSTABLE EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALLOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS TO WARRANT
POSSIBLE THUNDER ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND MOSTLY 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. 88

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A PERSISTENT TROUGH REMAINS
OVER THE WESTERN STATES. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL SEE A LOW
MOVE FROM ARIZONA TO THE ROCKIES WHILE ANOTHER LOW SINKS SOUTH TO
THE WASHINGTON/OREGON COAST. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER
THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
EVENING. ON SATURDAY, A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EXCEPT FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OREGON WHICH WILL DRY OUT. THE REST OF THE
AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL SEE THE LOW IN THE ROCKIES
LIFT INTO CANADA WHILE THE LOW ALONG THE COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN NEVADA BY MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY
PERIOD IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHILE THE EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
THE MODELS HAVE DIFFERENCES BUT IN GENERAL SHOW WEAK AND POORLY
ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED THE FORECAST OF
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA IS
DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IN THE 60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. PERRY



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  71  53  77  55 /  20  30  40  30
ALW  75  54  78  57 /  20  30  40  40
PSC  77  55  82  57 /  10  10  30  30
YKM  80  53  81  57 /   0  10  30  20
HRI  78  56  80  57 /  10  20  30  30
ELN  80  52  79  55 /  10  10  30  20
RDM  65  50  72  49 /  40  50  50  40
LGD  66  50  73  53 /  30  40  50  40
GCD  65  47  71  50 /  50  60  60  50
DLS  79  57  80  57 /  30  20  30  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/





000
FXUS66 KPDT 201512 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
805 AM PDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE E PAC WILL CONTINUE TO USHER
MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA TODAY. THE CURRENT RADAR WAS INDICATING
SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE ZONES WERE UPDATED
TO REFLECT THIS INTO THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE THE COMBINATION OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ISOLD TSRA MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE OR/WA STATE LINE AND OVER THE AREA MOUNTAINS. AFTN
TEMPS WERE MODIFIED AND THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST APPEARS ON
TRACK FOR TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM PDT WED MAY 20 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A LARGE BROAD UPPER LOW IS
CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WHILE ANOTHER IS
SITTING OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THESE LOWS ARE NOT WELL
DEFINED...HOWEVER THEY DO HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH
THEM TO CAUSE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
GRANT COUNTY AT THIS TIME AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THIS
MORNING. ELSEWHERE IT IS DRY FOR NOW. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
CAPE AND NEGATIVE LI`S TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES AS WELL AS OVER CENTRAL OREGON.
THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING UNSTABLE EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALLOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS TO WARRANT
POSSIBLE THUNDER ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND MOSTLY 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. 88

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A PERSISTENT TROUGH REMAINS
OVER THE WESTERN STATES. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL SEE A LOW
MOVE FROM ARIZONA TO THE ROCKIES WHILE ANOTHER LOW SINKS SOUTH TO
THE WASHINGTON/OREGON COAST. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER
THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
EVENING. ON SATURDAY, A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EXCEPT FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OREGON WHICH WILL DRY OUT. THE REST OF THE
AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL SEE THE LOW IN THE ROCKIES
LIFT INTO CANADA WHILE THE LOW ALONG THE COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN NEVADA BY MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY
PERIOD IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHILE THE EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
THE MODELS HAVE DIFFERENCES BUT IN GENERAL SHOW WEAK AND POORLY
ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED THE FORECAST OF
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA IS
DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IN THE 60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. PERRY

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON PRIMARILY IN CENTRAL OREGON, THE EASTERN OREGON
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE CASCADES. THIS WILL AFFECT KRDM, KBDN, KALW,
KPDT AND PERHAPS KDLS. THE PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM PASSING
OVER A TAF SITE IS LOW SO DID NOT MENTION TSRA OR VCTS IN THE TAFS
FOR THOSE SITES. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE SCATTERED TO
BROKEN AT 6K-10K FEET THOUGH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS TODAY ASIDE
FROM SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT KDLS THIS MORNING. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  71  53  77  55 /  20  30  40  30
ALW  75  54  78  57 /  20  30  40  40
PSC  77  55  82  57 /  10  10  30  30
YKM  80  53  81  57 /   0  10  30  20
HRI  78  56  80  57 /  10  20  30  30
ELN  80  52  79  55 /  10  10  30  20
RDM  65  50  72  49 /  40  50  50  40
LGD  66  50  73  53 /  30  40  50  40
GCD  65  47  71  50 /  50  60  60  50
DLS  79  57  80  57 /  30  20  30  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/




000
FXUS66 KPDT 201512 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
805 AM PDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE E PAC WILL CONTINUE TO USHER
MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA TODAY. THE CURRENT RADAR WAS INDICATING
SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE ZONES WERE UPDATED
TO REFLECT THIS INTO THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE THE COMBINATION OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ISOLD TSRA MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE OR/WA STATE LINE AND OVER THE AREA MOUNTAINS. AFTN
TEMPS WERE MODIFIED AND THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST APPEARS ON
TRACK FOR TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM PDT WED MAY 20 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A LARGE BROAD UPPER LOW IS
CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WHILE ANOTHER IS
SITTING OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THESE LOWS ARE NOT WELL
DEFINED...HOWEVER THEY DO HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH
THEM TO CAUSE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
GRANT COUNTY AT THIS TIME AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THIS
MORNING. ELSEWHERE IT IS DRY FOR NOW. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
CAPE AND NEGATIVE LI`S TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES AS WELL AS OVER CENTRAL OREGON.
THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING UNSTABLE EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALLOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS TO WARRANT
POSSIBLE THUNDER ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND MOSTLY 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. 88

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A PERSISTENT TROUGH REMAINS
OVER THE WESTERN STATES. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL SEE A LOW
MOVE FROM ARIZONA TO THE ROCKIES WHILE ANOTHER LOW SINKS SOUTH TO
THE WASHINGTON/OREGON COAST. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER
THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
EVENING. ON SATURDAY, A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EXCEPT FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OREGON WHICH WILL DRY OUT. THE REST OF THE
AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL SEE THE LOW IN THE ROCKIES
LIFT INTO CANADA WHILE THE LOW ALONG THE COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN NEVADA BY MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY
PERIOD IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHILE THE EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
THE MODELS HAVE DIFFERENCES BUT IN GENERAL SHOW WEAK AND POORLY
ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED THE FORECAST OF
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA IS
DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IN THE 60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. PERRY

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON PRIMARILY IN CENTRAL OREGON, THE EASTERN OREGON
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE CASCADES. THIS WILL AFFECT KRDM, KBDN, KALW,
KPDT AND PERHAPS KDLS. THE PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM PASSING
OVER A TAF SITE IS LOW SO DID NOT MENTION TSRA OR VCTS IN THE TAFS
FOR THOSE SITES. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE SCATTERED TO
BROKEN AT 6K-10K FEET THOUGH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS TODAY ASIDE
FROM SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT KDLS THIS MORNING. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  71  53  77  55 /  20  30  40  30
ALW  75  54  78  57 /  20  30  40  40
PSC  77  55  82  57 /  10  10  30  30
YKM  80  53  81  57 /   0  10  30  20
HRI  78  56  80  57 /  10  20  30  30
ELN  80  52  79  55 /  10  10  30  20
RDM  65  50  72  49 /  40  50  50  40
LGD  66  50  73  53 /  30  40  50  40
GCD  65  47  71  50 /  50  60  60  50
DLS  79  57  80  57 /  30  20  30  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/





000
FXUS66 KPDT 201512 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
805 AM PDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE E PAC WILL CONTINUE TO USHER
MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA TODAY. THE CURRENT RADAR WAS INDICATING
SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE ZONES WERE UPDATED
TO REFLECT THIS INTO THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE THE COMBINATION OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ISOLD TSRA MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE OR/WA STATE LINE AND OVER THE AREA MOUNTAINS. AFTN
TEMPS WERE MODIFIED AND THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST APPEARS ON
TRACK FOR TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM PDT WED MAY 20 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A LARGE BROAD UPPER LOW IS
CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WHILE ANOTHER IS
SITTING OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THESE LOWS ARE NOT WELL
DEFINED...HOWEVER THEY DO HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH
THEM TO CAUSE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
GRANT COUNTY AT THIS TIME AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THIS
MORNING. ELSEWHERE IT IS DRY FOR NOW. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
CAPE AND NEGATIVE LI`S TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES AS WELL AS OVER CENTRAL OREGON.
THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING UNSTABLE EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALLOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS TO WARRANT
POSSIBLE THUNDER ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND MOSTLY 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. 88

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A PERSISTENT TROUGH REMAINS
OVER THE WESTERN STATES. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL SEE A LOW
MOVE FROM ARIZONA TO THE ROCKIES WHILE ANOTHER LOW SINKS SOUTH TO
THE WASHINGTON/OREGON COAST. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER
THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
EVENING. ON SATURDAY, A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EXCEPT FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OREGON WHICH WILL DRY OUT. THE REST OF THE
AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL SEE THE LOW IN THE ROCKIES
LIFT INTO CANADA WHILE THE LOW ALONG THE COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN NEVADA BY MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY
PERIOD IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHILE THE EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
THE MODELS HAVE DIFFERENCES BUT IN GENERAL SHOW WEAK AND POORLY
ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED THE FORECAST OF
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA IS
DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IN THE 60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. PERRY

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON PRIMARILY IN CENTRAL OREGON, THE EASTERN OREGON
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE CASCADES. THIS WILL AFFECT KRDM, KBDN, KALW,
KPDT AND PERHAPS KDLS. THE PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM PASSING
OVER A TAF SITE IS LOW SO DID NOT MENTION TSRA OR VCTS IN THE TAFS
FOR THOSE SITES. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE SCATTERED TO
BROKEN AT 6K-10K FEET THOUGH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS TODAY ASIDE
FROM SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT KDLS THIS MORNING. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  71  53  77  55 /  20  30  40  30
ALW  75  54  78  57 /  20  30  40  40
PSC  77  55  82  57 /  10  10  30  30
YKM  80  53  81  57 /   0  10  30  20
HRI  78  56  80  57 /  10  20  30  30
ELN  80  52  79  55 /  10  10  30  20
RDM  65  50  72  49 /  40  50  50  40
LGD  66  50  73  53 /  30  40  50  40
GCD  65  47  71  50 /  50  60  60  50
DLS  79  57  80  57 /  30  20  30  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/




000
FXUS66 KPDT 201512 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
805 AM PDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE E PAC WILL CONTINUE TO USHER
MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA TODAY. THE CURRENT RADAR WAS INDICATING
SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE ZONES WERE UPDATED
TO REFLECT THIS INTO THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE THE COMBINATION OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ISOLD TSRA MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE OR/WA STATE LINE AND OVER THE AREA MOUNTAINS. AFTN
TEMPS WERE MODIFIED AND THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST APPEARS ON
TRACK FOR TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM PDT WED MAY 20 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A LARGE BROAD UPPER LOW IS
CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WHILE ANOTHER IS
SITTING OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THESE LOWS ARE NOT WELL
DEFINED...HOWEVER THEY DO HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH
THEM TO CAUSE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
GRANT COUNTY AT THIS TIME AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THIS
MORNING. ELSEWHERE IT IS DRY FOR NOW. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
CAPE AND NEGATIVE LI`S TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES AS WELL AS OVER CENTRAL OREGON.
THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING UNSTABLE EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALLOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS TO WARRANT
POSSIBLE THUNDER ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND MOSTLY 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. 88

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A PERSISTENT TROUGH REMAINS
OVER THE WESTERN STATES. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL SEE A LOW
MOVE FROM ARIZONA TO THE ROCKIES WHILE ANOTHER LOW SINKS SOUTH TO
THE WASHINGTON/OREGON COAST. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER
THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
EVENING. ON SATURDAY, A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EXCEPT FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OREGON WHICH WILL DRY OUT. THE REST OF THE
AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL SEE THE LOW IN THE ROCKIES
LIFT INTO CANADA WHILE THE LOW ALONG THE COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN NEVADA BY MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY
PERIOD IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHILE THE EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
THE MODELS HAVE DIFFERENCES BUT IN GENERAL SHOW WEAK AND POORLY
ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED THE FORECAST OF
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA IS
DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IN THE 60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. PERRY

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON PRIMARILY IN CENTRAL OREGON, THE EASTERN OREGON
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE CASCADES. THIS WILL AFFECT KRDM, KBDN, KALW,
KPDT AND PERHAPS KDLS. THE PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM PASSING
OVER A TAF SITE IS LOW SO DID NOT MENTION TSRA OR VCTS IN THE TAFS
FOR THOSE SITES. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE SCATTERED TO
BROKEN AT 6K-10K FEET THOUGH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS TODAY ASIDE
FROM SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT KDLS THIS MORNING. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  71  53  77  55 /  20  30  40  30
ALW  75  54  78  57 /  20  30  40  40
PSC  77  55  82  57 /  10  10  30  30
YKM  80  53  81  57 /   0  10  30  20
HRI  78  56  80  57 /  10  20  30  30
ELN  80  52  79  55 /  10  10  30  20
RDM  65  50  72  49 /  40  50  50  40
LGD  66  50  73  53 /  30  40  50  40
GCD  65  47  71  50 /  50  60  60  50
DLS  79  57  80  57 /  30  20  30  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/





000
FXUS66 KPDT 201157 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
457 AM PDT WED MAY 20 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A LARGE BROAD UPPER LOW IS
CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WHILE ANOTHER IS
SITTING OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THESE LOWS ARE NOT WELL
DEFINED...HOWEVER THEY DO HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH
THEM TO CAUSE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
GRANT COUNTY AT THIS TIME AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THIS
MORNING. ELSEWHERE IT IS DRY FOR NOW. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
CAPE AND NEGATIVE LI`S TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES AS WELL AS OVER CENTRAL OREGON.
THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING UNSTABLE EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALLOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS TO WARRANT
POSSIBLE THUNDER ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND MOSTLY 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. 88

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A PERSISTENT TROUGH REMAINS
OVER THE WESTERN STATES. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL SEE A LOW
MOVE FROM ARIZONA TO THE ROCKIES WHILE ANOTHER LOW SINKS SOUTH TO
THE WASHINGTON/OREGON COAST. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER
THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
EVENING. ON SATURDAY, A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EXCEPT FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OREGON WHICH WILL DRY OUT. THE REST OF THE
AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL SEE THE LOW IN THE ROCKIES
LIFT INTO CANADA WHILE THE LOW ALONG THE COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN NEVADA BY MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY
PERIOD IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHILE THE EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
THE MODELS HAVE DIFFERENCES BUT IN GENERAL SHOW WEAK AND POORLY
ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED THE FORECAST OF
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA IS
DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IN THE 60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON PRIMARILY IN CENTRAL OREGON, THE EASTERN OREGON
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE CASCADES. THIS WILL AFFECT KRDM, KBDN, KALW,
KPDT AND PERHAPS KDLS. THE PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM PASSING
OVER A TAF SITE IS LOW SO DID NOT MENTION TSRA OR VCTS IN THE TAFS
FOR THOSE SITES. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE SCATTERED TO
BROKEN AT 6K-10K FEET THOUGH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS TODAY ASIDE
FROM SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT KDLS THIS MORNING. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  72  53  77  55 /  20  30  40  30
ALW  74  54  78  57 /  20  30  40  40
PSC  78  55  82  57 /  10  10  30  30
YKM  77  53  81  57 /   0  10  30  20
HRI  77  56  80  57 /  10  20  30  30
ELN  77  52  79  55 /  10  10  30  20
RDM  67  50  72  49 /  40  50  50  40
LGD  67  50  73  53 /  30  40  50  40
GCD  66  47  71  50 /  50  60  60  50
DLS  78  57  80  57 /  30  20  30  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/83/83




000
FXUS66 KPDT 201157 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
457 AM PDT WED MAY 20 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A LARGE BROAD UPPER LOW IS
CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WHILE ANOTHER IS
SITTING OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THESE LOWS ARE NOT WELL
DEFINED...HOWEVER THEY DO HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH
THEM TO CAUSE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
GRANT COUNTY AT THIS TIME AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THIS
MORNING. ELSEWHERE IT IS DRY FOR NOW. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
CAPE AND NEGATIVE LI`S TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES AS WELL AS OVER CENTRAL OREGON.
THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING UNSTABLE EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALLOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS TO WARRANT
POSSIBLE THUNDER ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND MOSTLY 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. 88

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A PERSISTENT TROUGH REMAINS
OVER THE WESTERN STATES. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL SEE A LOW
MOVE FROM ARIZONA TO THE ROCKIES WHILE ANOTHER LOW SINKS SOUTH TO
THE WASHINGTON/OREGON COAST. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER
THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
EVENING. ON SATURDAY, A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EXCEPT FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OREGON WHICH WILL DRY OUT. THE REST OF THE
AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL SEE THE LOW IN THE ROCKIES
LIFT INTO CANADA WHILE THE LOW ALONG THE COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN NEVADA BY MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY
PERIOD IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHILE THE EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
THE MODELS HAVE DIFFERENCES BUT IN GENERAL SHOW WEAK AND POORLY
ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED THE FORECAST OF
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA IS
DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IN THE 60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON PRIMARILY IN CENTRAL OREGON, THE EASTERN OREGON
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE CASCADES. THIS WILL AFFECT KRDM, KBDN, KALW,
KPDT AND PERHAPS KDLS. THE PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM PASSING
OVER A TAF SITE IS LOW SO DID NOT MENTION TSRA OR VCTS IN THE TAFS
FOR THOSE SITES. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE SCATTERED TO
BROKEN AT 6K-10K FEET THOUGH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS TODAY ASIDE
FROM SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT KDLS THIS MORNING. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  72  53  77  55 /  20  30  40  30
ALW  74  54  78  57 /  20  30  40  40
PSC  78  55  82  57 /  10  10  30  30
YKM  77  53  81  57 /   0  10  30  20
HRI  77  56  80  57 /  10  20  30  30
ELN  77  52  79  55 /  10  10  30  20
RDM  67  50  72  49 /  40  50  50  40
LGD  67  50  73  53 /  30  40  50  40
GCD  66  47  71  50 /  50  60  60  50
DLS  78  57  80  57 /  30  20  30  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/83/83





000
FXUS66 KPDT 201157 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
457 AM PDT WED MAY 20 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A LARGE BROAD UPPER LOW IS
CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WHILE ANOTHER IS
SITTING OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THESE LOWS ARE NOT WELL
DEFINED...HOWEVER THEY DO HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH
THEM TO CAUSE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
GRANT COUNTY AT THIS TIME AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THIS
MORNING. ELSEWHERE IT IS DRY FOR NOW. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
CAPE AND NEGATIVE LI`S TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES AS WELL AS OVER CENTRAL OREGON.
THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING UNSTABLE EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALLOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS TO WARRANT
POSSIBLE THUNDER ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND MOSTLY 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. 88

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A PERSISTENT TROUGH REMAINS
OVER THE WESTERN STATES. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL SEE A LOW
MOVE FROM ARIZONA TO THE ROCKIES WHILE ANOTHER LOW SINKS SOUTH TO
THE WASHINGTON/OREGON COAST. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER
THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
EVENING. ON SATURDAY, A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EXCEPT FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OREGON WHICH WILL DRY OUT. THE REST OF THE
AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL SEE THE LOW IN THE ROCKIES
LIFT INTO CANADA WHILE THE LOW ALONG THE COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN NEVADA BY MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY
PERIOD IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHILE THE EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
THE MODELS HAVE DIFFERENCES BUT IN GENERAL SHOW WEAK AND POORLY
ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED THE FORECAST OF
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA IS
DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IN THE 60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON PRIMARILY IN CENTRAL OREGON, THE EASTERN OREGON
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE CASCADES. THIS WILL AFFECT KRDM, KBDN, KALW,
KPDT AND PERHAPS KDLS. THE PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM PASSING
OVER A TAF SITE IS LOW SO DID NOT MENTION TSRA OR VCTS IN THE TAFS
FOR THOSE SITES. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE SCATTERED TO
BROKEN AT 6K-10K FEET THOUGH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS TODAY ASIDE
FROM SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT KDLS THIS MORNING. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  72  53  77  55 /  20  30  40  30
ALW  74  54  78  57 /  20  30  40  40
PSC  78  55  82  57 /  10  10  30  30
YKM  77  53  81  57 /   0  10  30  20
HRI  77  56  80  57 /  10  20  30  30
ELN  77  52  79  55 /  10  10  30  20
RDM  67  50  72  49 /  40  50  50  40
LGD  67  50  73  53 /  30  40  50  40
GCD  66  47  71  50 /  50  60  60  50
DLS  78  57  80  57 /  30  20  30  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/83/83




000
FXUS66 KPDT 200958
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
258 AM PDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A LARGE BROAD UPPER LOW IS
CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WHILE ANOTHER IS
SITTING OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THESE LOWS ARE NOT WELL
DEFINED...HOWEVER THEY DO HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH
THEM TO CAUSE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
GRANT COUNTY AT THIS TIME AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THIS
MORNING. ELSEWHERE IT IS DRY FOR NOW. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
CAPE AND NEGATIVE LI`S TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES AS WELL AS OVER CENTRAL OREGON.
THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING UNSTABLE EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALLOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS TO WARRANT
POSSIBLE THUNDER ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND MOSTLY 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. 88

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A PERSISTENT TROUGH REMAINS
OVER THE WESTERN STATES. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL SEE A LOW
MOVE FROM ARIZONA TO THE ROCKIES WHILE ANOTHER LOW SINKS SOUTH TO
THE WASHINGTON/OREGON COAST. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER
THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
EVENING. ON SATURDAY, A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EXCEPT FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OREGON WHICH WILL DRY OUT. THE REST OF THE
AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL SEE THE LOW IN THE ROCKIES
LIFT INTO CANADA WHILE THE LOW ALONG THE COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN NEVADA BY MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY
PERIOD IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHILE THE EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
THE MODELS HAVE DIFFERENCES BUT IN GENERAL SHOW WEAK AND POORLY
ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED THE FORECAST OF
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA IS
DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IN THE 60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH COULD IMPACT KALW...KPDT...KRDM AND KBDN
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS BUT
COULD BE GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  72  53  77  55 /  20  30  40  30
ALW  74  54  78  57 /  20  30  40  40
PSC  78  55  82  57 /  10  10  30  30
YKM  77  53  81  57 /   0  10  30  20
HRI  77  56  80  57 /  10  20  30  30
ELN  77  52  79  55 /  10  10  30  20
RDM  67  50  72  49 /  40  50  50  40
LGD  67  50  73  53 /  30  40  50  40
GCD  66  47  71  50 /  50  60  60  50
DLS  78  57  80  57 /  30  20  30  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/83/83




000
FXUS66 KPDT 200958
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
258 AM PDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A LARGE BROAD UPPER LOW IS
CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WHILE ANOTHER IS
SITTING OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THESE LOWS ARE NOT WELL
DEFINED...HOWEVER THEY DO HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH
THEM TO CAUSE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
GRANT COUNTY AT THIS TIME AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THIS
MORNING. ELSEWHERE IT IS DRY FOR NOW. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
CAPE AND NEGATIVE LI`S TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES AS WELL AS OVER CENTRAL OREGON.
THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING UNSTABLE EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALLOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS TO WARRANT
POSSIBLE THUNDER ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND MOSTLY 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. 88

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A PERSISTENT TROUGH REMAINS
OVER THE WESTERN STATES. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL SEE A LOW
MOVE FROM ARIZONA TO THE ROCKIES WHILE ANOTHER LOW SINKS SOUTH TO
THE WASHINGTON/OREGON COAST. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER
THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
EVENING. ON SATURDAY, A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EXCEPT FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OREGON WHICH WILL DRY OUT. THE REST OF THE
AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL SEE THE LOW IN THE ROCKIES
LIFT INTO CANADA WHILE THE LOW ALONG THE COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN NEVADA BY MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY
PERIOD IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHILE THE EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
THE MODELS HAVE DIFFERENCES BUT IN GENERAL SHOW WEAK AND POORLY
ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED THE FORECAST OF
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA IS
DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IN THE 60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH COULD IMPACT KALW...KPDT...KRDM AND KBDN
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS BUT
COULD BE GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  72  53  77  55 /  20  30  40  30
ALW  74  54  78  57 /  20  30  40  40
PSC  78  55  82  57 /  10  10  30  30
YKM  77  53  81  57 /   0  10  30  20
HRI  77  56  80  57 /  10  20  30  30
ELN  77  52  79  55 /  10  10  30  20
RDM  67  50  72  49 /  40  50  50  40
LGD  67  50  73  53 /  30  40  50  40
GCD  66  47  71  50 /  50  60  60  50
DLS  78  57  80  57 /  30  20  30  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/83/83





000
FXUS66 KPDT 200518
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1018 PM PDT TUE MAY 19 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MOST CONVECTION THIS EVENING
IS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON. SOME OF THIS IS SPREADING INTO
THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS EVENING
LOOKS TO BE LIMITED TO MAINLY GRANT COUNTY BUT COULD SPREAD INTO
CROOK AND WHEELER CONTINUES TOO. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIVING THIS
PATTERN IS OVER THE GREAT BASIN WHICH IS CREATING THIS EASTERLY FLOW
BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS LOW WILL DEPART TO THE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY BUT THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS PARKED ALONG
THE WEST COAST. THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY.

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
COULD IMPACT KALW...KPDT...KRDM AND KBDN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS BUT COULD BE GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 PM PDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN AN
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT DUE TO A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY. RADAR AND SATELLITE INDICATE AIRMASS BECOMING
UNSTABLE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. FAIR
AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO WHICH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WEAK WIND
FIELDS SO NOT EXPECTING STORMS TO BE VERY STRONG. MORE LIKELY THEY
WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN SOME
LOCATIONS. ANOTHER LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY
AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN UNSTABLE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE REGION. EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NOT MUCH CHANGE
IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR
THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS WITH 60S ELSEWHERE. 94

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  MODELS AGREE ON TAKING
ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION...BUT ARE
VERY DIFFERENT ON THE OTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DROP OUT
OF THE GULF OF ALASKA.  THE GFS KEEPS THIS LOW FURTHER NORTH WITH A
WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION BY MONDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES
IT PREVIOUS IDEA OF THE LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
MORNING AND ANOTHER LOW ON SUNDAY. I HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS. 93




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  55  74  55  74 /  10  20  30  40
ALW  56  76  56  75 /  10  20  30  40
PSC  57  80  55  79 /   0  10  10  30
YKM  55  79  53  78 /  10   0  10  30
HRI  56  79  56  77 /   0  10  20  30
ELN  51  79  52  76 /  10  10  10  30
RDM  44  69  50  69 /  30  40  50  50
LGD  50  69  50  70 /  30  30  40  50
GCD  49  68  47  68 /  60  50  60  60
DLS  56  80  57  77 /  10  10  20  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/91/91




000
FXUS66 KPDT 200518
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1018 PM PDT TUE MAY 19 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MOST CONVECTION THIS EVENING
IS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON. SOME OF THIS IS SPREADING INTO
THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS EVENING
LOOKS TO BE LIMITED TO MAINLY GRANT COUNTY BUT COULD SPREAD INTO
CROOK AND WHEELER CONTINUES TOO. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIVING THIS
PATTERN IS OVER THE GREAT BASIN WHICH IS CREATING THIS EASTERLY FLOW
BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS LOW WILL DEPART TO THE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY BUT THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS PARKED ALONG
THE WEST COAST. THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY.

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
COULD IMPACT KALW...KPDT...KRDM AND KBDN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS BUT COULD BE GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 PM PDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN AN
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT DUE TO A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY. RADAR AND SATELLITE INDICATE AIRMASS BECOMING
UNSTABLE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. FAIR
AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO WHICH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WEAK WIND
FIELDS SO NOT EXPECTING STORMS TO BE VERY STRONG. MORE LIKELY THEY
WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN SOME
LOCATIONS. ANOTHER LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY
AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN UNSTABLE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE REGION. EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NOT MUCH CHANGE
IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR
THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS WITH 60S ELSEWHERE. 94

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  MODELS AGREE ON TAKING
ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION...BUT ARE
VERY DIFFERENT ON THE OTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DROP OUT
OF THE GULF OF ALASKA.  THE GFS KEEPS THIS LOW FURTHER NORTH WITH A
WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION BY MONDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES
IT PREVIOUS IDEA OF THE LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
MORNING AND ANOTHER LOW ON SUNDAY. I HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS. 93




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  55  74  55  74 /  10  20  30  40
ALW  56  76  56  75 /  10  20  30  40
PSC  57  80  55  79 /   0  10  10  30
YKM  55  79  53  78 /  10   0  10  30
HRI  56  79  56  77 /   0  10  20  30
ELN  51  79  52  76 /  10  10  10  30
RDM  44  69  50  69 /  30  40  50  50
LGD  50  69  50  70 /  30  30  40  50
GCD  49  68  47  68 /  60  50  60  60
DLS  56  80  57  77 /  10  10  20  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/91/91





000
FXUS66 KPDT 200518
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1018 PM PDT TUE MAY 19 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MOST CONVECTION THIS EVENING
IS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON. SOME OF THIS IS SPREADING INTO
THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS EVENING
LOOKS TO BE LIMITED TO MAINLY GRANT COUNTY BUT COULD SPREAD INTO
CROOK AND WHEELER CONTINUES TOO. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIVING THIS
PATTERN IS OVER THE GREAT BASIN WHICH IS CREATING THIS EASTERLY FLOW
BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS LOW WILL DEPART TO THE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY BUT THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS PARKED ALONG
THE WEST COAST. THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY.

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
COULD IMPACT KALW...KPDT...KRDM AND KBDN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS BUT COULD BE GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 PM PDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN AN
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT DUE TO A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY. RADAR AND SATELLITE INDICATE AIRMASS BECOMING
UNSTABLE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. FAIR
AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO WHICH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WEAK WIND
FIELDS SO NOT EXPECTING STORMS TO BE VERY STRONG. MORE LIKELY THEY
WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN SOME
LOCATIONS. ANOTHER LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY
AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN UNSTABLE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE REGION. EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NOT MUCH CHANGE
IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR
THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS WITH 60S ELSEWHERE. 94

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  MODELS AGREE ON TAKING
ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION...BUT ARE
VERY DIFFERENT ON THE OTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DROP OUT
OF THE GULF OF ALASKA.  THE GFS KEEPS THIS LOW FURTHER NORTH WITH A
WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION BY MONDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES
IT PREVIOUS IDEA OF THE LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
MORNING AND ANOTHER LOW ON SUNDAY. I HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS. 93




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  55  74  55  74 /  10  20  30  40
ALW  56  76  56  75 /  10  20  30  40
PSC  57  80  55  79 /   0  10  10  30
YKM  55  79  53  78 /  10   0  10  30
HRI  56  79  56  77 /   0  10  20  30
ELN  51  79  52  76 /  10  10  10  30
RDM  44  69  50  69 /  30  40  50  50
LGD  50  69  50  70 /  30  30  40  50
GCD  49  68  47  68 /  60  50  60  60
DLS  56  80  57  77 /  10  10  20  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/91/91





000
FXUS66 KPDT 200518
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1018 PM PDT TUE MAY 19 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MOST CONVECTION THIS EVENING
IS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON. SOME OF THIS IS SPREADING INTO
THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS EVENING
LOOKS TO BE LIMITED TO MAINLY GRANT COUNTY BUT COULD SPREAD INTO
CROOK AND WHEELER CONTINUES TOO. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIVING THIS
PATTERN IS OVER THE GREAT BASIN WHICH IS CREATING THIS EASTERLY FLOW
BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS LOW WILL DEPART TO THE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY BUT THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS PARKED ALONG
THE WEST COAST. THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY.

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
COULD IMPACT KALW...KPDT...KRDM AND KBDN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS BUT COULD BE GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 PM PDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN AN
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT DUE TO A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY. RADAR AND SATELLITE INDICATE AIRMASS BECOMING
UNSTABLE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. FAIR
AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO WHICH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WEAK WIND
FIELDS SO NOT EXPECTING STORMS TO BE VERY STRONG. MORE LIKELY THEY
WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN SOME
LOCATIONS. ANOTHER LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY
AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN UNSTABLE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE REGION. EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NOT MUCH CHANGE
IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR
THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS WITH 60S ELSEWHERE. 94

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  MODELS AGREE ON TAKING
ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION...BUT ARE
VERY DIFFERENT ON THE OTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DROP OUT
OF THE GULF OF ALASKA.  THE GFS KEEPS THIS LOW FURTHER NORTH WITH A
WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION BY MONDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES
IT PREVIOUS IDEA OF THE LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
MORNING AND ANOTHER LOW ON SUNDAY. I HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS. 93




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  55  74  55  74 /  10  20  30  40
ALW  56  76  56  75 /  10  20  30  40
PSC  57  80  55  79 /   0  10  10  30
YKM  55  79  53  78 /  10   0  10  30
HRI  56  79  56  77 /   0  10  20  30
ELN  51  79  52  76 /  10  10  10  30
RDM  44  69  50  69 /  30  40  50  50
LGD  50  69  50  70 /  30  30  40  50
GCD  49  68  47  68 /  60  50  60  60
DLS  56  80  57  77 /  10  10  20  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/91/91




000
FXUS66 KPDT 200235
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
735 PM PDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MOST CONVECTION THIS EVENING
IS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON. SOME OF THIS IS SPREADING INTO
THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS EVENING
LOOKS TO BE LIMITED TO MAINLY GRANT COUNTY BUT COULD SPREAD INTO
CROOK AND WHEELER CONTINUES TOO. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIVING THIS
PATTERN IS OVER THE GREAT BASIN WHICH IS CREATING THIS EASTERLY FLOW
BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS LOW WILL DEPART TO THE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY BUT THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS PARKED ALONG
THE WEST COAST. THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 PM PDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN AN
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT DUE TO A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY. RADAR AND SATELLITE INDICATE AIRMASS BECOMING
UNSTABLE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. FAIR
AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO WHICH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WEAK WIND
FIELDS SO NOT EXPECTING STORMS TO BE VERY STRONG. MORE LIKELY THEY
WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN SOME
LOCATIONS. ANOTHER LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY
AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN UNSTABLE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE REGION. EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NOT MUCH CHANGE
IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR
THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS WITH 60S ELSEWHERE. 94

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  MODELS AGREE ON TAKING
ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION...BUT ARE
VERY DIFFERENT ON THE OTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DROP OUT
OF THE GULF OF ALASKA.  THE GFS KEEPS THIS LOW FURTHER NORTH WITH A
WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION BY MONDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES
IT PREVIOUS IDEA OF THE LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
MORNING AND ANOTHER LOW ON SUNDAY. I HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS. 93

AVIATION...00Z TAFS.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MOVE WEST OUT OVER
THE REGION THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET WITH A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUING
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.  AT THIS TIME...KBND AND KRDM ARE MOST LIKELY TO
SEE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY WITH SCT-BKN 080-100 FOOT CEILING
ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO 12 KTS WITH GUSTY
WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 03Z.  93.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  55  74  55  74 /  10  20  30  40
ALW  56  76  56  75 /  10  20  30  40
PSC  57  80  55  79 /   0  10  10  30
YKM  55  79  53  78 /  10   0  10  30
HRI  56  79  56  77 /   0  10  20  30
ELN  51  79  52  76 /  10  10  10  30
RDM  44  69  50  69 /  30  40  50  50
LGD  50  69  50  70 /  30  30  40  50
GCD  49  68  47  68 /  60  50  60  60
DLS  56  80  57  77 /  10  10  20  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/91/91




000
FXUS66 KPDT 200235
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
735 PM PDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MOST CONVECTION THIS EVENING
IS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON. SOME OF THIS IS SPREADING INTO
THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS EVENING
LOOKS TO BE LIMITED TO MAINLY GRANT COUNTY BUT COULD SPREAD INTO
CROOK AND WHEELER CONTINUES TOO. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIVING THIS
PATTERN IS OVER THE GREAT BASIN WHICH IS CREATING THIS EASTERLY FLOW
BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS LOW WILL DEPART TO THE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY BUT THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS PARKED ALONG
THE WEST COAST. THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 PM PDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN AN
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT DUE TO A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY. RADAR AND SATELLITE INDICATE AIRMASS BECOMING
UNSTABLE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. FAIR
AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO WHICH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WEAK WIND
FIELDS SO NOT EXPECTING STORMS TO BE VERY STRONG. MORE LIKELY THEY
WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN SOME
LOCATIONS. ANOTHER LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY
AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN UNSTABLE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE REGION. EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NOT MUCH CHANGE
IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR
THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS WITH 60S ELSEWHERE. 94

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  MODELS AGREE ON TAKING
ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION...BUT ARE
VERY DIFFERENT ON THE OTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DROP OUT
OF THE GULF OF ALASKA.  THE GFS KEEPS THIS LOW FURTHER NORTH WITH A
WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION BY MONDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES
IT PREVIOUS IDEA OF THE LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
MORNING AND ANOTHER LOW ON SUNDAY. I HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS. 93

AVIATION...00Z TAFS.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MOVE WEST OUT OVER
THE REGION THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET WITH A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUING
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.  AT THIS TIME...KBND AND KRDM ARE MOST LIKELY TO
SEE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY WITH SCT-BKN 080-100 FOOT CEILING
ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO 12 KTS WITH GUSTY
WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 03Z.  93.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  55  74  55  74 /  10  20  30  40
ALW  56  76  56  75 /  10  20  30  40
PSC  57  80  55  79 /   0  10  10  30
YKM  55  79  53  78 /  10   0  10  30
HRI  56  79  56  77 /   0  10  20  30
ELN  51  79  52  76 /  10  10  10  30
RDM  44  69  50  69 /  30  40  50  50
LGD  50  69  50  70 /  30  30  40  50
GCD  49  68  47  68 /  60  50  60  60
DLS  56  80  57  77 /  10  10  20  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/91/91





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