000
FXUS66 KPDT 230300
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
800 PM PDT WED MAY 22 2013
.UPDATE...SHOWER ARE DECREASING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OVER
EASTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS STILL SPINNING WEST OF YAKIMA AND ELLENSBURG.
SOME SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT IN THE UNSTABLE AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW. FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP IN
PARTS OF CENTRAL OREGON..THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS...AND THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY. A
FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND GRANDE
RONDE VALLEY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. AS THE LOW DRIFTS WEST
TOMORROW SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP IN EASTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON
WITH THE STRONGEST SHOWERS IN OREGON. COONFIELD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM PDT WED MAY 22 2013/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A DEEP CLOSED LOW CONTINUES
TO SPIN OVER CENTRAL WASHINGTON. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
ACROSS NORTHERN KLICKITAT COUNTY ABOVE 2500 FEET INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT TIL 8 PM.
THE COLD AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING TEMPERATURES
DOWN TO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS AND GRANDE RONDE VALLEY OF OREGON. A FREEZE WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS. CENTRAL OREGON WILL ALSO FREEZE UNDER
THE EFFECTS OF THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR...BUT FREEZE WARNINGS ARE
NOT NORMALLY ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS UNTIL AFTER JUNE 1.
SHORT TERM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LOW WOBBLING AROUND
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN LIFTING OUT FRIDAY
NIGHT. AS SUCH...VERY COOL AND SCATTERED SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY SHOW AN INCREASE ON LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL
OREGON TO NORTHERN IDAHO. A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL FOR
ALL AREAS ON SATURDAY...EXCEPT THE CREST OF THE WA/OR CASCADES AND
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR THE
EXTENDED. IT DOES SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING AND WARMER AIR
INTRUDING...BUT OVERALL UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED EVERY
DAY...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS
TO BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS DO HINT AT A WEAK WAVE TO PUSH
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WHICH MIGHT GENERATE A FEW MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST OREGON. AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW
PUSHES NORTHWARD FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WORK WEEK...THE FORECAST
AREA FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE IN A ZONAL FLOW. THIS WILL SUPPORT
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY.
MODELS DO HINT AT ANOTHER POTENTIALLY STRONG COLD FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM THAT IS MOVING IN LOOKS
TO HAVE A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT...ALONG WITH CAPE VALUES AND LI`S
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER. THEREFORE HAVE MADE A SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION INTO THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. WEBER
AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH AN UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL CAUSE NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE
EVENING THUNDERSTORM. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED TO BELOW 6 MILES
AT TIMES DURING SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS AND CIGS BELOW 030
AT TIMES AT ALL TAF SITES. WINDS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY AND GENERALLY
10 TO 20 KTS AT MOST TAF SITES THIS EVENING AND THEN THEY WILL
BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS BY 06Z-12Z.
EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TOMORROW WITH LIGHTER WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOON. WEBER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 34 59 42 60 / 20 20 20 50
ALW 36 63 44 61 / 20 20 20 40
PSC 37 65 45 66 / 20 20 20 40
YKM 36 63 43 65 / 60 20 20 40
HRI 34 65 45 63 / 20 20 20 50
ELN 34 61 41 63 / 60 30 30 40
RDM 25 55 35 55 / 20 20 50 40
LGD 30 57 38 54 / 30 30 30 50
GCD 28 54 35 51 / 30 30 30 50
DLS 38 62 46 62 / 20 20 50 50
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM PDT THURSDAY ORZ508.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM PDT THURSDAY
ORZ049.
WA...NONE.
&&
THREAT INDEX
THURSDAY : GREEN
FRIDAY : GREEN
SATURDAY : GREEN
GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
76/76/76
000
FXUS66 KPDT 222233 AAA
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
333 PM PDT WED MAY 22 2013
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A DEEP CLOSED LOW CONTINUES
TO SPIN OVER CENTRAL WASHINGTON. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
ACROSS NORTHERN KLICKITAT COUNTY ABOVE 2500 FEET INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT TIL 8 PM.
THE COLD AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING TEMPERATURES
DOWN TO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS AND GRANDE RONDE VALLEY OF OREGON. A FREEZE WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS. CENTRAL OREGON WILL ALSO FREEZE UNDER
THE EFFECTS OF THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR...BUT FREEZE WARNINGS ARE
NOT NORMALLY ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS UNTIL AFTER JUNE 1.
SHORT TERM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LOW WOBBLING AROUND
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN LIFTING OUT FRIDAY
NIGHT. AS SUCH...VERY COOL AND SCATTERED SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY SHOW AN INCREASE ON LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL
OREGON TO NORTHERN IDAHO. A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL FOR
ALL AREAS ON SATURDAY...EXCEPT THE CREST OF THE WA/OR CASCADES AND
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR THE
EXTENDED. IT DOES SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING AND WARMER AIR
INTRUDING...BUT OVERALL UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED EVERY
DAY...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS
TO BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS DO HINT AT A WEAK WAVE TO PUSH
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WHICH MIGHT GENERATE A FEW MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST OREGON. AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW
PUSHES NORTHWARD FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WORK WEEK...THE FORECAST
AREA FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE IN A ZONAL FLOW. THIS WILL SUPPORT
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY.
MODELS DO HINT AT ANOTHER POTENTIALLY STRONG COLD FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM THAT IS MOVING IN LOOKS
TO HAVE A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT...ALONG WITH CAPE VALUES AND LI`S
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER. THEREFORE HAVE MADE A SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION INTO THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. WEBER
&&
.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH AN UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL CAUSE NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE
EVENING THUNDERSTORM. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED TO BELOW 6 MILES
AT TIMES DURING SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS AND CIGS BELOW 030
AT TIMES AT ALL TAF SITES. WINDS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY AND GENERALLY
10 TO 20 KTS AT MOST TAF SITES THIS EVENING AND THEN THEY WILL
BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS BY 06Z-12Z.
EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TOMORROW WITH LIGHTER WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOON. WEBER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 34 59 42 60 / 20 20 20 50
ALW 36 63 44 61 / 20 20 20 40
PSC 37 65 45 66 / 20 20 20 40
YKM 36 63 43 65 / 60 20 20 40
HRI 34 65 45 63 / 20 20 20 50
ELN 34 61 41 63 / 60 30 30 40
RDM 25 55 35 55 / 20 20 50 40
LGD 30 57 38 54 / 30 30 30 50
GCD 28 54 35 51 / 30 30 30 50
DLS 38 62 46 62 / 20 20 50 50
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE
4000 FEET FOR THE ORZ502-503.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM PDT THURSDAY
ORZ049.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM PDT THURSDAY ORZ508.
WA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING ABOVE 2500
FEET FOR THE WAZ521.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE
4000 FEET FOR THE WAZ030.
&&
THREAT INDEX
THURSDAY : GREEN
FRIDAY : GREEN
SATURDAY : GREEN
GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
79/89/89
000
FXUS66 KPDT 222134
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
233 PM PDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A DEEP CLOSED LOW CONTINUES
TO SPIN OVER CENTRAL WASHINGTON. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
ACROSS NORTHERN KLICKITAT COUNTY ABOVE 2500 FEET INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT TIL 8 PM.
THE COLD AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING TEMPERATURES
DOWN TO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS AND GRANDE RONDE VALLEY OF OREGON. A FREEZE WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS. CENTRAL OREGON WILL ALSO FREEZE UNDER
THE EFFECTS OF THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR...BUT FREEZE WARNINGS ARE
NOT NORMALLY ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS UNTIL AFTER JUNE 1.
SHORT TERM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LOW WOBBLING AROUND
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN LIFTING OUT FRIDAY
NIGHT. AS SUCH...VERY COOL AND SCATTERED SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY SHOW AN INCREASE ON LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL
OREGON TO NORTHERN IDAHO. A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL FOR
ALL AREAS ON SATURDAY...EXCEPT THE CREST OF THE WA/OR CASCADES AND
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR THE
EXTENDED. IT DOES SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING AND WARMER AIR
INTRUDING...BUT OVERALL UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED EVERY
DAY...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS
TO BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS DO HINT AT A WEAK WAVE TO PUSH
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WHICH MIGHT GENERATE A FEW MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST OREGON. AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW
PUSHES NORTHWARD FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WORK WEEK...THE FORECAST
AREA FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE IN A ZONAL FLOW. THIS WILL SUPPORT
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY.
MODELS DO HINT AT ANOTHER POTENTIALLY STRONG COLD FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM THAT IS MOVING IN LOOKS
TO HAVE A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT...ALONG WITH CAPE VALUES AND LI`S
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER. THEREFORE HAVE MADE A SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION INTO THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. WEBER
&&
.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND
OCCASIONALLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH AN
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL CAUSE NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED TO
BELOW 6 MILES AT TIMES DURING SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS AND
CIGS BELOW 030 AT TIMES AT ALL TAF SITES. WINDS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY
AND GENERALLY 10 TO 20 KTS AT MOST TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN
THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS BY
06Z-12Z. WEBER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 34 59 42 60 / 20 20 20 50
ALW 36 63 44 61 / 20 20 20 40
PSC 37 65 45 66 / 20 20 20 40
YKM 36 63 43 65 / 60 20 20 40
HRI 34 65 45 63 / 20 20 20 50
ELN 34 61 41 63 / 60 30 30 40
RDM 25 55 35 55 / 20 20 50 40
LGD 30 57 38 54 / 30 30 30 50
GCD 28 54 35 51 / 30 30 30 50
DLS 38 62 46 62 / 20 20 50 50
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE
4000 FEET FOR THE ORZ502-503.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM PDT THURSDAY
ORZ049.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM PDT THURSDAY ORZ508.
WA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING ABOVE 2500
FEET FOR THE WAZ521.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE
4000 FEET FOR THE WAZ030.
&&
THREAT INDEX
THURSDAY : GREEN
FRIDAY : GREEN
SATURDAY : GREEN
GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
79/89/89
000
FXUS66 KPDT 221728 AAA
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1028 AM PDT WED MAY 22 2013
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION
.UPDATE...HAVE EXTENDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN THE
NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS UNTIL 3 PM. NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO ADD SNOW ABOVE 4000 FEET. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE
TOLLGATE AND SKI BLUEWOOD AREAS AS MEACHAM AND I-84 WILL SEE A
MIXTURE WITH SNOW MELTING ON THE ROADWAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT WILL CAUSE NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED TO BELOW 6 MILES AT
TIMES DURING SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS AND CIGS BELOW 030 AT
TIMES AT ALL TAF SITES. WINDS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY AND GENERALLY 10
TO 20 KTS AT MOST TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN THEY WILL BECOME
LIGHT TONIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS BY 06Z-12Z. WEBER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 830 AM PDT WED MAY 22 2013/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...DEEP CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON THIS MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY FILL THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT MEANDERS AROUND THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES 2-4 DEGREES IN
WASHINGTON AND NEAR THE COLUMBIA RIVER IN OREGON DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE LOW. TODAYS TEMPERATURES WILL BE A RECORD LOW
MAXIMUM IN AREAS UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LOW.
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH DAYTIME HEATING UNDER THE LOW WILL CAUSE
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOWERS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT IN UPSLOPE AREA NEAR THE CASCADES.
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY WILL GIVE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER NW
WASHINGTON.
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM PDT WED MAY 22 2013/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
THUS KEEPING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. SNOW LEVELS THIS MORNING ARE
AROUND 2700-3500 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THIS MORNING OF
2-4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 4000 FEET. AS
SUCH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4 INCHES
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BLUE MOUNTAINS UNTIL 1000 AM PDT THIS MORNING.
THE UPPER LOW WILL WOBBLE AND REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON CASCADES TODAY AND KEEP PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS
IN KITTITAS, YAKIMA, KLICKITAT, AND BENTON COUNTIES UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CENTER OF THE LOW RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY WESTWARD
TONIGHT WITH THE CENTER NEAR OLYMPIA, WASHINGTON BY AROUND DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS DYNAMIC LIFT EAST OF THE CASCADES
AND THUS A REDUCTION IN POPS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THEN DAYTIME
SURFACE HEATING WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON YIELDING INCREASING POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
HOWEVER, THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE YAKIMA VALLEY WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY DUE TO SINKING AIR ASSOCIATED WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
EAST OF THE CASCADES. THURSDAY NIGHT SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND
4000-5000 FEET RESULTING IN SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS
WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.
STEEP TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES AND DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATE WITH THE
UPPER LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL YIELD MARGINAL
INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TODAY AND THURSDAY.
POLAN
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL KEEP UNSETTLED SHOWERY AND COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE
LONGER RANGE MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW INCREASING
DIVERGENCE WITH EACH OTHER AS TIME GOES ON. NEVERTHELESS THEY BOTH
SHOW AN OVERALL TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH THE
ECMWF SHOWING A CLOSED LOW THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AND THEN IT OPENS
UP TO A TROUGH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH THE GFS. THIS
PATTERN WILL KEEP RELATIVE COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WEAKENS OVER THE
WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK INTO THE 70S OR
LEVELS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. IN THE MEAN TIME THEY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND THEN A WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THEN THEY LEVEL OFF IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AND MOSTLY IN THE 40S AND
50S TO BEGIN WITH IN THE MOUNTAINS...WARMING TO THE MID 50S TO MID
60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE SOME INSTABILITY
EACH AFTERNOON AND IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH SUNSHINE AND HEATING TO
PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOST AFTERNOONS THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY. THEN THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO BECOME MORE STABLE AS
THE UPPER TROUGHS/LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND BECOME LESS ORGANIZED.
88
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 51 34 61 41 / 40 20 20 20
ALW 53 37 65 45 / 50 20 20 20
PSC 55 37 68 44 / 50 20 20 20
YKM 53 37 65 43 / 90 60 20 20
HRI 55 34 66 44 / 40 20 20 20
ELN 50 35 63 41 / 90 60 30 40
RDM 52 26 57 34 / 30 20 20 30
LGD 51 32 61 39 / 30 30 30 30
GCD 52 33 61 38 / 30 20 30 30
DLS 56 38 64 47 / 60 20 20 30
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE 4000
FEET FOR THE ORZ502-503.
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE 4000
FEET FOR THE WAZ030.
&&
THREAT INDEX
TODAY : GREEN
THURSDAY : GREEN
FRIDAY : GREEN
GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
79/89/89
000
FXUS66 KPDT 221651
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
951 AM PDT WED MAY 22 2013
.UPDATE...HAVE EXTENDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN THE
NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS UNTIL 3 PM. NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO ADD SNOW ABOVE 4000 FEET. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE
TOLLGATE AND SKI BLUEWOOD AREAS AS MEACHAM AND I-84 WILL SEE A
MIXTURE WITH SNOW MELTING ON THE ROADWAYS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 830 AM PDT WED MAY 22 2013/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...DEEP CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON THIS MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY FILL THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT MEANDERS AROUND THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES 2-4 DEGREES IN
WASHINGTON AND NEAR THE COLUMBIA RIVER IN OREGON DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE LOW. TODAYS TEMPERATURES WILL BE A RECORD LOW
MAXIMUM IN AREAS UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LOW.
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH DAYTIME HEATING UNDER THE LOW WILL CAUSE
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOWERS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT IN UPSLOPE AREA NEAR THE CASCADES.
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY WILL GIVE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER NW
WASHINGTON.
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM PDT WED MAY 22 2013/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
THUS KEEPING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. SNOW LEVELS THIS MORNING ARE
AROUND 2700-3500 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THIS MORNING OF
2-4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 4000 FEET. AS
SUCH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4 INCHES
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BLUE MOUNTAINS UNTIL 1000 AM PDT THIS MORNING.
THE UPPER LOW WILL WOBBLE AND REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON CASCADES TODAY AND KEEP PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS
IN KITTITAS, YAKIMA, KLICKITAT, AND BENTON COUNTIES UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CENTER OF THE LOW RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY WESTWARD
TONIGHT WITH THE CENTER NEAR OLYMPIA, WASHINGTON BY AROUND DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS DYNAMIC LIFT EAST OF THE CASCADES
AND THUS A REDUCTION IN POPS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THEN DAYTIME
SURFACE HEATING WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON YIELDING INCREASING POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
HOWEVER, THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE YAKIMA VALLEY WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY DUE TO SINKING AIR ASSOCIATED WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
EAST OF THE CASCADES. THURSDAY NIGHT SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND
4000-5000 FEET RESULTING IN SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS
WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.
STEEP TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES AND DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATE WITH THE
UPPER LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL YIELD MARGINAL
INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TODAY AND THURSDAY.
POLAN
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL KEEP UNSETTLED SHOWERY AND COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE
LONGER RANGE MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW INCREASING
DIVERGENCE WITH EACH OTHER AS TIME GOES ON. NEVERTHELESS THEY BOTH
SHOW AN OVERALL TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH THE
ECMWF SHOWING A CLOSED LOW THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AND THEN IT OPENS
UP TO A TROUGH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH THE GFS. THIS
PATTERN WILL KEEP RELATIVE COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WEAKENS OVER THE
WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK INTO THE 70S OR
LEVELS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. IN THE MEAN TIME THEY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND THEN A WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THEN THEY LEVEL OFF IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AND MOSTLY IN THE 40S AND
50S TO BEGIN WITH IN THE MOUNTAINS...WARMING TO THE MID 50S TO MID
60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE SOME INSTABILITY
EACH AFTERNOON AND IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH SUNSHINE AND HEATING TO
PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOST AFTERNOONS THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY. THEN THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO BECOME MORE STABLE AS
THE UPPER TROUGHS/LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND BECOME LESS ORGANIZED.
88
AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT WILL CAUSE NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED TO BELOW 6 MILES AT
TIMES DURING SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS AND CIGS BELOW 030 AT
TIMES AT ALL TAF SITES. WINDS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY AND GENERALLY 10
TO 20 KTS AT MOST TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN THEY WILL BECOME
LIGHT TONIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS BY 06Z-12Z. 88
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 51 34 61 41 / 40 20 20 20
ALW 53 37 65 45 / 50 20 20 20
PSC 55 37 68 44 / 50 20 20 20
YKM 53 37 65 43 / 90 60 20 20
HRI 55 34 66 44 / 40 20 20 20
ELN 50 35 63 41 / 90 60 30 40
RDM 52 26 57 34 / 30 20 20 30
LGD 51 32 61 39 / 30 30 30 30
GCD 52 33 61 38 / 30 20 30 30
DLS 56 38 64 47 / 60 20 20 30
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE 4000
FEET FOR THE ORZ502-503.
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE 4000
FEET FOR THE WAZ030.
&&
THREAT INDEX
TODAY : GREEN
THURSDAY : GREEN
FRIDAY : GREEN
GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
79/89/89
000
FXUS66 KPDT 221529
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
830 AM PDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...DEEP CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON THIS MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY FILL THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT MEANDERS AROUND THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES 2-4 DEGREES IN
WASHINGTON AND NEAR THE COLUMBIA RIVER IN OREGON DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE LOW. TODAYS TEMPERATURES WILL BE A RECORD LOW
MAXIMUM IN AREAS UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LOW.
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH DAYTIME HEATING UNDER THE LOW WILL CAUSE
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOWERS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT IN UPSLOPE AREA NEAR THE CASCADES.
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY WILL GIVE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER NW
WASHINGTON.
.LONG TERM...
&&
.AVIATION...
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM PDT WED MAY 22 2013/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
THUS KEEPING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. SNOW LEVELS THIS MORNING ARE
AROUND 2700-3500 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THIS MORNING OF
2-4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 4000 FEET. AS
SUCH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4 INCHES
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BLUE MOUNTAINS UNTIL 1000 AM PDT THIS MORNING.
THE UPPER LOW WILL WOBBLE AND REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON CASCADES TODAY AND KEEP PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS
IN KITTITAS, YAKIMA, KLICKITAT, AND BENTON COUNTIES UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CENTER OF THE LOW RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY WESTWARD
TONIGHT WITH THE CENTER NEAR OLYMPIA, WASHINGTON BY AROUND DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS DYNAMIC LIFT EAST OF THE CASCADES
AND THUS A REDUCTION IN POPS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THEN DAYTIME
SURFACE HEATING WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON YIELDING INCREASING POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
HOWEVER, THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE YAKIMA VALLEY WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY DUE TO SINKING AIR ASSOCIATED WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
EAST OF THE CASCADES. THURSDAY NIGHT SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND
4000-5000 FEET RESULTING IN SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS
WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.
STEEP TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES AND DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATE WITH THE
UPPER LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL YIELD MARGINAL
INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TODAY AND THURSDAY.
POLAN
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL KEEP UNSETTLED SHOWERY AND COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE
LONGER RANGE MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW INCREASING
DIVERGENCE WITH EACH OTHER AS TIME GOES ON. NEVERTHELESS THEY BOTH
SHOW AN OVERALL TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH THE
ECMWF SHOWING A CLOSED LOW THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AND THEN IT OPENS
UP TO A TROUGH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH THE GFS. THIS
PATTERN WILL KEEP RELATIVE COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WEAKENS OVER THE
WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK INTO THE 70S OR
LEVELS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. IN THE MEAN TIME THEY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND THEN A WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THEN THEY LEVEL OFF IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AND MOSTLY IN THE 40S AND
50S TO BEGIN WITH IN THE MOUNTAINS...WARMING TO THE MID 50S TO MID
60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE SOME INSTABILITY
EACH AFTERNOON AND IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH SUNSHINE AND HEATING TO
PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOST AFTERNOONS THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY. THEN THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO BECOME MORE STABLE AS
THE UPPER TROUGHS/LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND BECOME LESS ORGANIZED.
88
AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT WILL CAUSE NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED TO BELOW 6 MILES AT
TIMES DURING SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS AND CIGS BELOW 030 AT
TIMES AT ALL TAF SITES. WINDS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY AND GENERALLY 10
TO 20 KTS AT MOST TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN THEY WILL BECOME
LIGHT TONIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS BY 06Z-12Z. 88
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 51 34 61 41 / 40 20 20 20
ALW 53 37 65 45 / 50 20 20 20
PSC 55 37 68 44 / 50 20 20 20
YKM 53 37 65 43 / 90 60 20 20
HRI 55 34 66 44 / 40 20 20 20
ELN 50 35 63 41 / 90 60 30 40
RDM 52 26 57 34 / 30 20 20 30
LGD 51 32 61 39 / 30 30 30 30
GCD 52 33 61 38 / 30 20 30 30
DLS 56 38 64 47 / 60 20 20 30
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PDT THIS MORNING ABOVE 4000
FEET FOR THE ORZ502-503.
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PDT THIS MORNING ABOVE 4000
FEET FOR THE WAZ030.
&&
THREAT INDEX
TODAY : GREEN
THURSDAY : GREEN
FRIDAY : GREEN
GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
79/89/89
000
FXUS66 KPDT 221016
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
315 AM PDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
THUS KEEPING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. SNOW LEVELS THIS MORNING ARE
AROUND 2700-3500 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THIS MORNING OF
2-4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 4000 FEET. AS
SUCH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4 INCHES
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BLUE MOUNTAINS UNTIL 1000 AM PDT THIS MORNING.
THE UPPER LOW WILL WOBBLE AND REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON CASCADES TODAY AND KEEP PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS
IN KITTITAS, YAKIMA, KLICKITAT, AND BENTON COUNTIES UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CENTER OF THE LOW RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY WESTWARD
TONIGHT WITH THE CENTER NEAR OLYMPIA, WASHINGTON BY AROUND DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS DYNAMIC LIFT EAST OF THE CASCADES
AND THUS A REDUCTION IN POPS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THEN DAYTIME
SURFACE HEATING WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON YIELDING INCREASING POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
HOWEVER, THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE YAKIMA VALLEY WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY DUE TO SINKING AIR ASSOCIATED WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
EAST OF THE CASCADES. THURSDAY NIGHT SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND
4000-5000 FEET RESULTING IN SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS
WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.
STEEP TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES AND DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATE WITH THE
UPPER LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL YIELD MARGINAL
INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TODAY AND THURSDAY.
POLAN
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL KEEP UNSETTLED SHOWERY AND COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE
LONGER RANGE MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW INCREASING
DIVERGENCE WITH EACH OTHER AS TIME GOES ON. NEVERTHELESS THEY BOTH
SHOW AN OVERALL TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH THE
ECMWF SHOWING A CLOSED LOW THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AND THEN IT OPENS
UP TO A TROUGH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH THE GFS. THIS
PATTERN WILL KEEP RELATIVE COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WEAKENS OVER THE
WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK INTO THE 70S OR
LEVELS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. IN THE MEAN TIME THEY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND THEN A WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THEN THEY LEVEL OFF IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AND MOSTLY IN THE 40S AND
50S TO BEGIN WITH IN THE MOUNTAINS...WARMING TO THE MID 50S TO MID
60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE SOME INSTABILITY
EACH AFTERNOON AND IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH SUNSHINE AND HEATING TO
PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOST AFTERNOONS THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY. THEN THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO BECOME MORE STABLE AS
THE UPPER TROUGHS/LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND BECOME LESS ORGANIZED.
88
&&
.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT WILL CAUSE NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED TO BELOW 6 MILES AT
TIMES DURING SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS AND CIGS BELOW 030 AT
TIMES AT ALL TAF SITES. WINDS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY AND GENERALLY 10
TO 20 KTS AT MOST TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN THEY WILL BECOME
LIGHT TONIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS BY 06Z-12Z. 88
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 55 34 61 41 / 50 20 20 30
ALW 57 37 65 45 / 70 20 20 30
PSC 59 37 68 44 / 50 20 20 20
YKM 57 37 65 43 / 100 60 20 20
HRI 59 34 66 44 / 40 20 20 30
ELN 54 35 63 41 / 90 60 30 40
RDM 52 26 57 34 / 30 20 30 50
LGD 53 32 61 39 / 30 30 30 40
GCD 52 33 61 38 / 30 20 30 60
DLS 56 38 64 47 / 60 20 20 50
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PDT THIS MORNING ABOVE 4000
FEET FOR THE ORZ502-503.
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PDT THIS MORNING ABOVE 4000
FEET FOR THE WAZ030.
&&
THREAT INDEX
TODAY : YELLOW
THURSDAY : GREEN
FRIDAY : GREEN
GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
99/88/88
000
FXUS66 KPDT 220515
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1020 PM PDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SHORT TERM...STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TONIGHT. A SHORT WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE LOW IS
CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
FEATURE IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF HEAVIER RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. FREEZING LEVELS ARE LOWERING QUICK
WITH THE COLD ADVECTION AND WE WILL HAVE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY. COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IF THE CLOUDS DECREASE ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR SOME SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH THE UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND COOL
TEMPERATURES. 94
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS. AREA OF STEADY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
YKM PSC ALW FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. OTHERWISE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CEILINGS WILL BE
030-060. WINDS 10-25KT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM PDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS PUSHED
THROUGH MOST OF OUR AREA, EXCEPT THE EASTERN HALF OF WALLOWA COUNTY.
THIS FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH WALLOWA COUNTY BY 5 PM. WILL CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH THE THREAT
SEEMS TO BE DIMINISHING. STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM GRANT COUNTY
NORTH TO THE BLUES AND EAST TO WALLOWA COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON,
AND OVER WALLOWA COUNTY THIS EVENING. A BAND OF STEADY SHOWERS JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE NORTHEAST AND EAST THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS BAND CURRENTLY RUNS FROM EASTERN GRANT AND BAKER COUNTIES
NORTH-NORTHWEST INTO WALLA WALLA AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES. THIS BAND
SHOULD LARGELY BE THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNSET THIS EVENING. WITH THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION TONIGHT, WILL CONTINUE TO SEE BANDS OF
SHOWERS ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THESE BANDS, BUT DATA INDICATES SOME
DECENT PRECIP OVER MANY LOCATION OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 4500 FEET THIS EVENING, THEN DOWN TO
2500 TO 3000 FEET BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THE ONE AREA THAT LOOKS TO
SEE ENOUGH PRECIP FOR SOME DECENT LATE SEASON SNOW IS THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS. WILL ISSUE A LOW END ADVISORY FOR THE BLUE MOUNTAIN ZONES
AS MUCH FOR IMPACT POTENTIAL AS FOR THE ACTUAL SNOW AMOUNTS. OTHER
AREAS THAT MAY SEE SNOW SHOULD SEE AN INCH OR LESS.
THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH THE AREA WILL REMAIN WITHIN A COOL
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW
CAUSING PERIODS OF SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGH
THIS PERIOD, THOUGH SOME SPOTTY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT
INTO THE HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK. DAYTIME HEATING AND COLD AIR ALOFT
COULD CREATE LAPSE RATES STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION STORMS ONLY ON THURSDAY AS THERE APPEARS TO
BETTER FOCUSING ON THIS DAY. 90
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE OVER THE AREA. EXPECT A CONTINUED CHANCE TO
LIKELY SHOWERS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST OREGON AND EAST
SLOPES OF THE CASCADES...AS THE LOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL FAIRLY HIGH WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN...BUT THERE
IS SOME DIVERGENCE WHEN IT COMES TO FAVORING THUNDER ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST OREGON. RIGHT NOW THE BEST AGREEMENT THAT
WOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS IS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SO HAVE KEPT
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR THE OCHOCO JOHN DAY...BLUE AND WALLOWA
MOUNTAIN AREAS...AS WELL AS THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY. OTHERWISE HAVE
BACK OFF TO JUST SHOWERS FOR THE OTHER TIME PERIODS. AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE NEAR TERM...IT MAY BE BETTER PINPOINTED AND WE CAN ADD
THE THUNDER AS NEEDED. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS KEEP THE CIRCULATION OVER
THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED...HENCE KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE
SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND A CHANCE TO LIKELY SHOWERS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...THE CIRCULATION DOES APPEAR TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY
AFTER SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER AIR TO INTRUDE AND RETURN
LOWER ELEVATION TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. WEBER
AVIATION...00Z TAFS...MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE OVER THE
INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EXPECT LOWERED CIGS...ON AND OFF
SHOWERS...AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15 TO 25KTS. EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT MOST TAF
SITES. WEBER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 40 56 37 62 / 60 50 20 30
ALW 43 57 41 65 / 60 50 20 30
PSC 46 62 38 69 / 70 50 20 30
YKM 41 58 35 64 / 60 40 20 30
HRI 44 62 35 67 / 60 40 20 30
ELN 45 56 37 64 / 60 50 30 40
RDM 30 53 29 57 / 60 40 20 30
LGD 39 51 33 58 / 60 50 30 30
GCD 35 54 33 59 / 60 40 20 30
DLS 44 56 41 65 / 60 50 30 40
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PDT WEDNESDAY ABOVE 4000
FEET FOR THE ORZ502-503.
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PDT WEDNESDAY ABOVE 4000
FEET FOR THE WAZ030.
&&
THREAT INDEX
WEDNESDAY : GREEN
THURSDAY : GREEN
FRIDAY : GREEN
GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
94
000
FXUS66 KPDT 220332
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
830 PM PDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SHORT TERM...STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TONIGHT. A SHORT WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE LOW IS
CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
FEATURE IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF HEAVIER RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. FREEZING LEVELS ARE LOWERING QUICK
WITH THE COLD ADVECTION AND WE WILL HAVE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY. COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IF THE CLOUDS DECREASE ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR SOME SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH THE UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND COOL
TEMPERATURES. 94
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM PDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS PUSHED
THROUGH MOST OF OUR AREA, EXCEPT THE EASTERN HALF OF WALLOWA COUNTY.
THIS FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH WALLOWA COUNTY BY 5 PM. WILL CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH THE THREAT
SEEMS TO BE DIMINISHING. STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM GRANT COUNTY
NORTH TO THE BLUES AND EAST TO WALLOWA COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON,
AND OVER WALLOWA COUNTY THIS EVENING. A BAND OF STEADY SHOWERS JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE NORTHEAST AND EAST THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS BAND CURRENTLY RUNS FROM EASTERN GRANT AND BAKER COUNTIES
NORTH-NORTHWEST INTO WALLA WALLA AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES. THIS BAND
SHOULD LARGELY BE THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNSET THIS EVENING. WITH THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION TONIGHT, WILL CONTINUE TO SEE BANDS OF
SHOWERS ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THESE BANDS, BUT DATA INDICATES SOME
DECENT PRECIP OVER MANY LOCATION OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 4500 FEET THIS EVENING, THEN DOWN TO
2500 TO 3000 FEET BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THE ONE AREA THAT LOOKS TO
SEE ENOUGH PRECIP FOR SOME DECENT LATE SEASON SNOW IS THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS. WILL ISSUE A LOW END ADVISORY FOR THE BLUE MOUNTAIN ZONES
AS MUCH FOR IMPACT POTENTIAL AS FOR THE ACTUAL SNOW AMOUNTS. OTHER
AREAS THAT MAY SEE SNOW SHOULD SEE AN INCH OR LESS.
THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH THE AREA WILL REMAIN WITHIN A COOL
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW
CAUSING PERIODS OF SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGH
THIS PERIOD, THOUGH SOME SPOTTY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT
INTO THE HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK. DAYTIME HEATING AND COLD AIR ALOFT
COULD CREATE LAPSE RATES STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION STORMS ONLY ON THURSDAY AS THERE APPEARS TO
BETTER FOCUSING ON THIS DAY. 90
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE OVER THE AREA. EXPECT A CONTINUED CHANCE TO
LIKELY SHOWERS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST OREGON AND EAST
SLOPES OF THE CASCADES...AS THE LOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL FAIRLY HIGH WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN...BUT THERE
IS SOME DIVERGENCE WHEN IT COMES TO FAVORING THUNDER ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST OREGON. RIGHT NOW THE BEST AGREEMENT THAT
WOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS IS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SO HAVE KEPT
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR THE OCHOCO JOHN DAY...BLUE AND WALLOWA
MOUNTAIN AREAS...AS WELL AS THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY. OTHERWISE HAVE
BACK OFF TO JUST SHOWERS FOR THE OTHER TIME PERIODS. AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE NEAR TERM...IT MAY BE BETTER PINPOINTED AND WE CAN ADD
THE THUNDER AS NEEDED. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS KEEP THE CIRCULATION OVER
THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED...HENCE KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE
SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND A CHANCE TO LIKELY SHOWERS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...THE CIRCULATION DOES APPEAR TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY
AFTER SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER AIR TO INTRUDE AND RETURN
LOWER ELEVATION TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. WEBER
AVIATION...00Z TAFS...MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE OVER THE
INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EXPECT LOWERED CIGS...ON AND OFF
SHOWERS...AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15 TO 25KTS. EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT MOST TAF
SITES. WEBER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 40 56 37 62 / 60 50 20 30
ALW 43 57 41 65 / 60 50 20 30
PSC 46 62 38 69 / 70 50 20 30
YKM 41 58 35 64 / 60 40 20 30
HRI 44 62 35 67 / 60 40 20 30
ELN 45 56 37 64 / 60 50 30 40
RDM 30 53 29 57 / 60 40 20 30
LGD 39 51 33 58 / 60 50 30 30
GCD 35 54 33 59 / 60 40 20 30
DLS 44 56 41 65 / 60 50 30 40
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PDT WEDNESDAY ABOVE 4000
FEET FOR THE ORZ502-503.
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PDT WEDNESDAY ABOVE 4000
FEET FOR THE WAZ030.
&&
THREAT INDEX
WEDNESDAY : GREEN
THURSDAY : GREEN
FRIDAY : GREEN
GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
94
000
FXUS66 KPDT 212221 AAA
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
321 PM PDT TUE MAY 21 2013
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS PUSHED
THROUGH MOST OF OUR AREA, EXCEPT THE EASTERN HALF OF WALLOWA COUNTY.
THIS FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH WALLOWA COUNTY BY 5 PM. WILL CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH THE THREAT
SEEMS TO BE DIMINISHING. STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM GRANT COUNTY
NORTH TO THE BLUES AND EAST TO WALLOWA COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON,
AND OVER WALLOWA COUNTY THIS EVENING. A BAND OF STEADY SHOWERS JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE NORTHEAST AND EAST THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS BAND CURRENTLY RUNS FROM EASTERN GRANT AND BAKER COUNTIES
NORTH-NORTHWEST INTO WALLA WALLA AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES. THIS BAND
SHOULD LARGELY BE THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNSET THIS EVENING. WITH THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION TONIGHT, WILL CONTINUE TO SEE BANDS OF
SHOWERS ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THESE BANDS, BUT DATA INDICATES SOME
DECENT PRECIP OVER MANY LOCATION OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 4500 FEET THIS EVENING, THEN DOWN TO
2500 TO 3000 FEET BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THE ONE AREA THAT LOOKS TO
SEE ENOUGH PRECIP FOR SOME DECENT LATE SEASON SNOW IS THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS. WILL ISSUE A LOW END ADVISORY FOR THE BLUE MOUNTAIN ZONES
AS MUCH FOR IMPACT POTENTIAL AS FOR THE ACTUAL SNOW AMOUNTS. OTHER
AREAS THAT MAY SEE SNOW SHOULD SEE AN INCH OR LESS.
THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH THE AREA WILL REMAIN WITHIN A COOL
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW
CAUSING PERIODS OF SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGH
THIS PERIOD, THOUGH SOME SPOTTY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT
INTO THE HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK. DAYTIME HEATING AND COLD AIR ALOFT
COULD CREATE LAPSE RATES STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION STORMS ONLY ON THURSDAY AS THERE APPEARS TO
BETTER FOCUSING ON THIS DAY. 90
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE OVER THE AREA. EXPECT A CONTINUED CHANCE TO
LIKELY SHOWERS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST OREGON AND EAST
SLOPES OF THE CASCADES...AS THE LOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL FAIRLY HIGH WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN...BUT THERE
IS SOME DIVERGENCE WHEN IT COMES TO FAVORING THUNDER ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST OREGON. RIGHT NOW THE BEST AGREEMENT THAT
WOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS IS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SO HAVE KEPT
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR THE OCHOCO JOHN DAY...BLUE AND WALLOWA
MOUNTAIN AREAS...AS WELL AS THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY. OTHERWISE HAVE
BACK OFF TO JUST SHOWERS FOR THE OTHER TIME PERIODS. AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE NEAR TERM...IT MAY BE BETTER PINPOINTED AND WE CAN ADD
THE THUNDER AS NEEDED. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS KEEP THE CIRCULATION OVER
THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED...HENCE KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE
SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND A CHANCE TO LIKELY SHOWERS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...THE CIRCULATION DOES APPEAR TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY
AFTER SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER AIR TO INTRUDE AND RETURN
LOWER ELEVATION TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. WEBER
&&
.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE OVER THE
INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EXPECT LOWERED CIGS...ON AND OFF
SHOWERS...AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15 TO 25KTS. EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT MOST TAF
SITES. WEBER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 40 56 37 62 / 60 50 20 30
ALW 43 57 41 65 / 60 50 20 30
PSC 46 62 38 69 / 70 40 20 30
YKM 41 58 35 64 / 60 30 20 30
HRI 44 62 35 67 / 60 40 20 30
ELN 45 56 37 64 / 60 40 30 40
RDM 30 53 29 57 / 40 40 20 30
LGD 39 51 33 58 / 60 50 30 30
GCD 35 54 33 59 / 60 40 20 30
DLS 44 56 41 65 / 30 50 30 40
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY ABOVE 4000 FEET FOR THE ORZ502-503.
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY ABOVE 4000 FEET FOR THE WAZ030.
&&
THREAT INDEX
WEDNESDAY : GREEN
THURSDAY : GREEN
FRIDAY : GREEN
GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
90/89/89
000
FXUS66 KPDT 212153
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
253 PM PDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS PUSHED
THROUGH MOST OF OUR AREA, EXCEPT THE EASTERN HALF OF WALLOWA COUNTY.
THIS FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH WALLOWA COUNTY BY 5 PM. WILL CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH THE THREAT
SEEMS TO BE DIMINISHING. STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM GRANT COUNTY
NORTH TO THE BLUES AND EAST TO WALLOWA COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON,
AND OVER WALLOWA COUNTY THIS EVENING. A BAND OF STEADY SHOWERS JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE NORTHEAST AND EAST THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS BAND CURRENTLY RUNS FROM EASTERN GRANT AND BAKER COUNTIES
NORTH-NORTHWEST INTO WALLA WALLA AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES. THIS BAND
SHOULD LARGELY BE THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNSET THIS EVENING. WITH THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION TONIGHT, WILL CONTINUE TO SEE BANDS OF
SHOWERS ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THESE BANDS, BUT DATA INDICATES SOME
DECENT PRECIP OVER MANY LOCATION OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 4500 FEET THIS EVENING, THEN DOWN TO
2500 TO 3000 FEET BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THE ONE AREA THAT LOOKS TO
SEE ENOUGH PRECIP FOR SOME DECENT LATE SEASON SNOW IS THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS. WILL ISSUE A LOW END ADVISORY FOR THE BLUE MOUNTAIN ZONES
AS MUCH FOR IMPACT POTENTIAL AS FOR THE ACTUAL SNOW AMOUNTS. OTHER
AREAS THAT MAY SEE SNOW SHOULD SEE AN INCH OR LESS.
THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH THE AREA WILL REMAIN WITHIN A COOL
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW
CAUSING PERIODS OF SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGH
THIS PERIOD, THOUGH SOME SPOTTY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT
INTO THE HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK. DAYTIME HEATING AND COLD AIR ALOFT
COULD CREATE LAPSE RATES STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION STORMS ONLY ON THURSDAY AS THERE APPEARS TO
BETTER FOCUSING ON THIS DAY. 90
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE OVER THE AREA. EXPECT A CONTINUED CHANCE TO
LIKELY SHOWERS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST OREGON AND EAST
SLOPES OF THE CASCADES...AS THE LOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL FAIRLY HIGH WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN...BUT THERE
IS SOME DIVERGENCE WHEN IT COMES TO FAVORING THUNDER ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST OREGON. RIGHT NOW THE BEST AGREEMENT THAT
WOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS IS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SO HAVE KEPT
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR THE OCHOCO JOHN DAY...BLUE AND WALLOWA
MOUNTAIN AREAS...AS WELL AS THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY. OTHERWISE HAVE
BACK OFF TO JUST SHOWERS FOR THE OTHER TIME PERIODS. AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE NEAR TERM...IT MAY BE BETTER PINPOINTED AND WE CAN ADD
THE THUNDER AS NEEDED. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS KEEP THE CIRCULATION OVER
THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED...HENCE KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE
SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND A CHANCE TO LIKELY SHOWERS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...THE CIRCULATION DOES APPEAR TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY
AFTER SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER AIR TO INTRUDE AND RETURN
LOWER ELEVATION TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. WEBER
&&
.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...OVERALL...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...
THERE IS A BAND OF SHOWERS THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH KPSC...KPDT...AND
KALW OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS. THIS MAY PROVIDE BRIEF LOWERING OF
CIGS AS THE SHOWERS MOVE OVER THE TAF SITES. THERE MAY EVEN BE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AT THESE TAF SITES. BUT WILL AMEND TAFS AS
NEEDED IF THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE A THREAT. OTHERWISE JUST ON AND
OFF RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS...WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS DUE TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
15 TO 25KTS. EXPECT THE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z WEDNESDAY FOR MOST TAF SITES. WEBER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 40 56 37 62 / 60 50 20 30
ALW 43 57 41 65 / 60 50 20 30
PSC 46 62 38 69 / 70 40 20 30
YKM 41 58 35 64 / 60 30 20 30
HRI 44 62 35 67 / 60 40 20 30
ELN 45 56 37 64 / 60 40 30 40
RDM 30 53 29 57 / 40 40 20 30
LGD 39 51 33 58 / 60 50 30 30
GCD 35 54 33 59 / 60 40 20 30
DLS 44 56 41 65 / 30 50 30 40
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY ABOVE 4000 FEET FOR THE ORZ502-503.
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY ABOVE 4000 FEET FOR THE WAZ030.
&&
THREAT INDEX
WEDNESDAY : GREEN
THURSDAY : GREEN
FRIDAY : GREEN
GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
90/89/89
000
FXUS66 KPDT 211740 AAA
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1040 AM PDT TUE MAY 21 2013
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION
.SHORT TERM...UPDATE...AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND SHOULD BE ALONG THE COAST BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING. THIS FRONT HAS BEEN MOVING EAST QUICKER THAN EXPECTED IN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THERE ARE ABOUT THREE BANDS OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONT. THUS HAVE UPDATED
SHOWER COVERAGES FOR THIS MORNING. HAVE HAD A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
IN EASTERN KITTITAS COUNTY. HAVE ADDED THUNDER TO THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING IN THIS AREA THOUGH THE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE ALSO ADDED SOME MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS INTO GRANT, EASTERN WHEELER AND EASTERN CROOK COUNTIES
FOR LATE THIS MORNING. SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS WERE MADE FOR
TODAY. ALSO LOWERED SOME OF TODAY`S HIGH TEMP FORECASTS BY A DEGREE
OR TWO. AFTERNOON AND EVENING PORTIONS OF THE CURRENT FORECAST
PACKAGE LOOK FINE AND ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. 90
.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A LARGE AND PERSISTENT UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE WILL BE WAVES OF ENERGY ROTATING
AROUND THIS SYSTEM WITH EACH ONE BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM WILL MAINLY BE CONCENTRATED FROM THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD INCLUDING CENTRAL OREGON AROUND THE
DESCHUTES PLATEAU. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO SOME AREAS...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...WHICH
WILL HELP EASE THE CURRENT DRY SPELL THAT THE CWA IS EXPERIENCING.
THE LONG RANGE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS PLACING THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW ABOUT 500 MILES APART WITH THE ECMWF POSITIONED OF THE BC
COAST AND THE GFS CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON. THE
DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO LONG RANGE MODELS INCREASES BUT BOTH
KEEP A GENERAL TROUGH LIKE PATTERN OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AND THEREFORE WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AFTER DAY 5
(SATURDAY). TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD AND A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND LOWER HEIGHTS AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE IS A BAND OF SHOWERS
THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH KPSC...KPDT...AND KALW OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 6
HOURS. THIS MAY PROVIDE BRIEF LOWERING OF CIGS AS THE SHOWERS MOVE
OVER THE TAF SITES. THERE MAY EVEN BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AT
THESE TAF SITES. BUT WILL AMEND TAFS AS NEEDED IF THUNDERSTORMS
APPEAR TO BE A THREAT. OTHERWISE JUST ON AND OFF RAIN SHOWERS OVER
THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS DUE TO THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15 TO 25KTS. EXPECT THE
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z
WEDNESDAY FOR MOST TAF SITES. WEBER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 63 40 59 39 / 60 60 50 20
ALW 67 43 60 43 / 60 70 50 20
PSC 70 44 65 39 / 50 60 40 20
YKM 65 38 63 37 / 60 20 30 20
HRI 67 42 65 38 / 50 60 40 20
ELN 62 42 58 39 / 70 20 40 30
RDM 59 31 54 32 / 50 50 40 30
LGD 68 39 54 37 / 60 50 50 30
GCD 68 36 56 35 / 60 40 40 20
DLS 62 44 61 42 / 70 30 50 40
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
THREAT INDEX
TODAY : YELLOW
WEDNESDAY : GREEN
THURSDAY : GREEN
GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
90/88/89
000
FXUS66 KPDT 211622
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
922 AM PDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SHORT TERM...UPDATE...AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND SHOULD BE ALONG THE COAST BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING. THIS FRONT HAS BEEN MOVING EAST QUICKER THAN EXPECTED IN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THERE ARE ABOUT THREE BANDS OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONT. THUS HAVE UPDATED
SHOWER COVERAGES FOR THIS MORNING. HAVE HAD A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
IN EASTERN KITTITAS COUNTY. HAVE ADDED THUNDER TO THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING IN THIS AREA THOUGH THE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE ALSO ADDED SOME MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS INTO GRANT, EASTERN WHEELER AND EASTERN CROOK COUNTIES
FOR LATE THIS MORNING. SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS WERE MADE FOR
TODAY. ALSO LOWERED SOME OF TODAY`S HIGH TEMP FORECASTS BY A DEGREE
OR TWO. AFTERNOON AND EVENING PORTIONS OF THE CURRENT FORECAST
PACKAGE LOOK FINE AND ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. 90
.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A LARGE AND PERSISTENT UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE WILL BE WAVES OF ENERGY ROTATING
AROUND THIS SYSTEM WITH EACH ONE BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM WILL MAINLY BE CONCENTRATED FROM THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD INCLUDING CENTRAL OREGON AROUND THE
DESCHUTES PLATEAU. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO SOME AREAS...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...WHICH
WILL HELP EASE THE CURRENT DRY SPELL THAT THE CWA IS EXPERIENCING.
THE LONG RANGE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS PLACING THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW ABOUT 500 MILES APART WITH THE ECMWF POSITIONED OF THE BC
COAST AND THE GFS CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON. THE
DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO LONG RANGE MODELS INCREASES BUT BOTH
KEEP A GENERAL TROUGH LIKE PATTERN OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AND THEREFORE WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AFTER DAY 5
(SATURDAY). TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD AND A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND LOWER HEIGHTS AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...UPDATE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY BETWEEN 18Z-6Z. WINDS WILL
BEGIN LIGHT BUT THEY WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KTS AT KDLS AND 15 TO
25 KTS IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS BY
18Z AS THE WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z WEDNESDAY. WEBER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 63 40 59 39 / 60 60 50 20
ALW 67 43 60 43 / 60 70 50 20
PSC 70 44 65 39 / 50 60 40 20
YKM 65 38 63 37 / 60 20 30 20
HRI 67 42 65 38 / 50 60 40 20
ELN 62 42 58 39 / 70 20 40 30
RDM 59 31 54 32 / 50 50 40 30
LGD 68 39 54 37 / 60 50 50 30
GCD 68 36 56 35 / 60 40 40 20
DLS 62 44 61 42 / 70 30 50 40
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
THREAT INDEX
TODAY : YELLOW
WEDNESDAY : GREEN
THURSDAY : GREEN
GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
90/88/89
000
FXUS66 KPDT 211200 AAA
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
459 AM PDT TUE MAY 21 2013
UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SEEN ON SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP DIGGING
SOUTHWARD NEAR QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLAND WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY INTO A
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TODAY WITH THE CENTER OF
THE LOW REACHING THE OREGON COAST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COLD
LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS THIS MORNING
WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE TRI-CITIES AND HERMISTON BY LATE THIS
MORNING. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL
FAVOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND GRANT COUNTY EASTWARD INTO IDAHO.
THE UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FOR PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER LATE TONIGHT TO AROUND
2800-3500 FEET FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OCCURRING AT PASS LEVELS IN
THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND NE OREGON AND THE BLUE MOUNTAINS IN
WASHINGTON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE
BLUE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN LATE SNOW
SEASON/OFFSEASON SNOW ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE BLUE MOUNTAINS
FOR LATE TONIGHT, BUT WILL DEFER TO THE DAY SHIFT FOR A DECISION.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 3500-4200 FEET BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
POLAN
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A LARGE AND PERSISTENT UPPER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE WILL BE WAVES OF ENERGY ROTATING
AROUND THIS SYSTEM WITH EACH ONE BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM WILL MAINLY BE CONCENTRATED FROM THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD INCLUDING CENTRAL OREGON AROUND THE
DESCHUTES PLATEAU. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO SOME AREAS...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...WHICH
WILL HELP EASE THE CURRENT DRY SPELL THAT THE CWA IS EXPERIENCING.
THE LONG RANGE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS PLACING THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW ABOUT 500 MILES APART WITH THE ECMWF POSITIONED OF THE BC
COAST AND THE GFS CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON. THE
DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO LONG RANGE MODELS INCREASES BUT BOTH
KEEP A GENERAL TROUGH LIKE PATTERN OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AND THEREFORE WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AFTER DAY 5
(SATURDAY). TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD AND A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND LOWER HEIGHTS AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AS A LARGE WEATHER
SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS MAY
RESULT IN BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS BY 19Z...ESPECIALLY AT
KRDM...KBDN AND KDLS. THESE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WILL REACH THE
REST OF THE TAF SITES BY 00Z. WINDS WILL BEGIN LIGHT BUT THEY WILL
INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KTS AT KDLS AND 15 TO 25 KTS IN THE LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN AND BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS BY 18Z AS THE WEATHER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z WEDNESDAY. 88
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 64 40 59 39 / 60 70 50 20
ALW 68 43 60 43 / 60 70 50 20
PSC 71 44 65 39 / 50 60 40 20
YKM 65 38 63 37 / 50 20 30 20
HRI 67 42 65 38 / 40 70 40 20
ELN 62 42 58 39 / 60 20 40 30
RDM 59 31 54 32 / 50 50 40 30
LGD 71 39 54 37 / 60 50 50 30
GCD 69 36 56 35 / 50 40 40 20
DLS 63 44 61 42 / 70 30 50 40
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
THREAT INDEX
TODAY : YELLOW
WEDNESDAY : GREEN
THURSDAY : GREEN
GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
99/88/88
000
FXUS66 KPDT 211001
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SEEN ON SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP DIGGING
SOUTHWARD NEAR QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLAND WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY INTO A
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TODAY WITH THE CENTER OF
THE LOW REACHING THE OREGON COAST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COLD
LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS THIS MORNING
WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE TRIP-CITIES BY LATE THIS MORNING.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL FAVOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS EASTWARD
INTO IDAHO. THE LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR PERIOD OF SHOWERS. SNOW LEVEL WILL LOVER LATE TONIGHT TO
AROUND 3000-3500 FEET FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. POLAN
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A LARGE AND PERSISTENT UPPER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE WILL BE WAVES OF ENERGY ROTATING
AROUND THIS SYSTEM WITH EACH ONE BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM WILL MAINLY BE CONCENTRATED FROM THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD INCLUDING CENTRAL OREGON AROUND THE
DESCHUTES PLATEAU. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO SOME AREAS...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...WHICH
WILL HELP EASE THE CURRENT DRY SPELL THAT THE CWA IS EXPERIENCING.
THE LONG RANGE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS PLACING THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW ABOUT 500 MILES APART WITH THE ECMWF POSITIONED OF THE BC
COAST AND THE GFS CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON. THE
DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO LONG RANGE MODELS INCREASES BUT BOTH
KEEP A GENERAL TROUGH LIKE PATTERN OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AND THEREFORE WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AFTER DAY 5
(SATURDAY). TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD AND A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND LOWER HEIGHTS AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AS A LARGE WEATHER
SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS MAY
RESULT IN BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS BY 19Z...ESPECIALLY AT
KRDM...KBDN AND KDLS. THESE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WILL REACH THE
REST OF THE TAF SITES BY 00Z. WINDS WILL BEGIN LIGHT BUT THEY WILL
INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KTS AT KDLS AND 15 TO 25 KTS IN THE LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN AND BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS BY 18Z AS THE WEATHER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z WEDNESDAY. 88
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 64 40 59 39 / 60 70 50 20
ALW 68 43 60 43 / 60 70 50 20
PSC 71 44 65 39 / 50 60 40 20
YKM 65 38 63 37 / 50 20 30 20
HRI 67 42 65 38 / 40 70 40 20
ELN 62 42 58 39 / 60 20 40 30
RDM 59 31 54 32 / 50 50 40 30
LGD 71 39 54 37 / 60 50 50 30
GCD 69 36 56 35 / 50 40 40 20
DLS 63 44 61 42 / 70 30 50 40
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
THREAT INDEX
TODAY : GREEN
WEDNESDAY : GREEN
THURSDAY : GREEN
GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
99/88/88
000
FXUS66 KPDT 210532
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1030 PM PDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SHORT TERM...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
SATELLITE SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
COAST. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME
LIGHT RAIN INTO THE CASCADES TOWARD MORNING. WARMING OF THE AIRMASS
EARLIER TODAY ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN LOW
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 40S. ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS
MORNINGS READINGS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN AND INCREASING WEST WINDS. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE BLUES AND JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS EAST TO THE
IDAHO BORDER. THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER WASHINGTON AND OREGON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPERATURES. 94
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS. INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WITH CEILINGS
LOWERING TO 030-060 IN RAIN SHOWERS. WINDS 5-15KT OVERNIGHT BECOMING
WESTERLY 15-30KT TUESDAY. 94
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM PDT MON MAY 20 2013/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARDS, THEN INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF
TONIGHT, THOUGH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE.
MAY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE CASCADE CREST TOWARDS DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. INITIALLY THIS SYSTEM WILL INSTIGATE A MARINE PUSH
SWITCHING WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN TO THE WEST BY MID TUESDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE
CASCADE CREST LATE TUESDAY MORNING, EXITING THE AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL INCREASE THE WEST WINDS AND DEEPEN THE
LAYER OF MARINE AIR WEST OF THE CASCADES, COOLING TEMPS. WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THE
WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO REACH THE ADVISORY LEVEL OF 30 MPH OR GREATER
SUSTAINED. THE FRONT WILL BRING VARYING CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO THE
REGION AS WELL. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND
SHEAR LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY STRONG. AT THE SAME TIME, CAPE IS LIMITED,
THE SHEAR MAY TURN OUT TO BE TOO STRONG, AND THE FRONT MAY MOVE
THROUGH PRIOR TO PEAK HEATING. STILL WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
POSSIBILITY OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
FROM GRANT COUNTY NORTH INTO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST TO
WALLOWA COUNTY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LOW WILL WOBBLE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW CENTER WILL PRODUCE
BANDS OF SHOWERS AT TIMES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS, ESPECIALLY HIGHS,
WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
DAYTIME HEATING AND COLD AIR ALOFT COULD CREATE LAPSE RATES STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION STORMS
ONLY ON THURSDAY AS THERE APPEARS TO BETTER FOCUSING ON THIS DAY. 90
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SEVERAL
WEATHER PATTERN CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...KEEPING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT
OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH WAVES OF ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE
CIRCULATION. WHILE MODELS DON`T HAVE THE TIMING OF THESE WAVES DOWN
VERY WELL...THEY CERTAINLY HAVE THE ABILITY TO GENERATE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EAST OF
THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE OCHOCO JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS.
SUNDAY ONWARD...IT`S DIFFICULT TO TELL IF THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE WORK WEEK OR IF IT WILL BE REPLACED BY AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. THIS BRINGS LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AFTER SATURDAY. OVERALL MODELS DO TRY TO TRANSPORT WARMER AIR TO
THE AREA AFTER SATURDAY...SO HAVE INCREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE 70S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 50S TO 60S MOUNTAINS.
WEBER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 50 64 40 59 / 0 50 60 50
ALW 53 68 43 60 / 0 50 60 50
PSC 51 71 44 67 / 0 40 50 30
YKM 48 65 38 63 / 0 40 40 30
HRI 49 67 42 65 / 0 40 50 40
ELN 49 62 42 58 / 0 60 40 40
RDM 43 59 31 54 / 0 30 50 40
LGD 45 71 39 54 / 0 40 50 50
GCD 45 69 36 56 / 0 40 40 40
DLS 52 63 44 61 / 0 50 40 40
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
THREAT INDEX
TUESDAY : YELLOW
WEDNESDAY : GREEN
THURSDAY : GREEN
GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
94
000
FXUS66 KPDT 210232
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
730 PM PDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SHORT TERM...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
SATELLITE SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
COAST. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME
LIGHT RAIN INTO THE CASCADES TOWARD MORNING. WARMING OF THE AIRMASS
EARLIER TODAY ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN LOW
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 40S. ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS
MORNINGS READINGS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN AND INCREASING WEST WINDS. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE BLUES AND JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS EAST TO THE
IDAHO BORDER. THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER WASHINGTON AND OREGON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPERATURES. 94
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM PDT MON MAY 20 2013/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARDS, THEN INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF
TONIGHT, THOUGH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE.
MAY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE CASCADE CREST TOWARDS DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. INITIALLY THIS SYSTEM WILL INSTIGATE A MARINE PUSH
SWITCHING WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN TO THE WEST BY MID TUESDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE
CASCADE CREST LATE TUESDAY MORNING, EXITING THE AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL INCREASE THE WEST WINDS AND DEEPEN THE
LAYER OF MARINE AIR WEST OF THE CASCADES, COOLING TEMPS. WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THE
WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO REACH THE ADVISORY LEVEL OF 30 MPH OR GREATER
SUSTAINED. THE FRONT WILL BRING VARYING CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO THE
REGION AS WELL. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND
SHEAR LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY STRONG. AT THE SAME TIME, CAPE IS LIMITED,
THE SHEAR MAY TURN OUT TO BE TOO STRONG, AND THE FRONT MAY MOVE
THROUGH PRIOR TO PEAK HEATING. STILL WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
POSSIBILITY OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
FROM GRANT COUNTY NORTH INTO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST TO
WALLOWA COUNTY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LOW WILL WOBBLE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW CENTER WILL PRODUCE
BANDS OF SHOWERS AT TIMES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS, ESPECIALLY HIGHS,
WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
DAYTIME HEATING AND COLD AIR ALOFT COULD CREATE LAPSE RATES STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION STORMS
ONLY ON THURSDAY AS THERE APPEARS TO BETTER FOCUSING ON THIS DAY. 90
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SEVERAL
WEATHER PATTERN CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...KEEPING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT
OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH WAVES OF ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE
CIRCULATION. WHILE MODELS DON`T HAVE THE TIMING OF THESE WAVES DOWN
VERY WELL...THEY CERTAINLY HAVE THE ABILITY TO GENERATE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EAST OF
THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE OCHOCO JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS.
SUNDAY ONWARD...IT`S DIFFICULT TO TELL IF THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE WORK WEEK OR IF IT WILL BE REPLACED BY AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. THIS BRINGS LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AFTER SATURDAY. OVERALL MODELS DO TRY TO TRANSPORT WARMER AIR TO
THE AREA AFTER SATURDAY...SO HAVE INCREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE 70S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 50S TO 60S MOUNTAINS.
WEBER
AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ASIDE FROM SOME THIN CIRRUS FOR REST OF
TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AT THE MID LEVELS TONIGHT WITH CLOUD
BASES NEAR 12000-15000 FT AGL. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 4-8 KTS BY
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH DURING THE
DAY TOMORROW AND WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA WITH INCREASED
WINDS 5-15KTS GUSTING TO 25KTS. THE EARLIEST SHOWERS SHOULD NOT
BEGIN UNTIL AFTER 18Z. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH THESE SHOWERS AFTER 18Z...BUT THEY SHOULD BE BRIEF. VCTS IS
POSSIBLE BUT HAVE NOT ADDED TO KPDT AND KALW AFTER 18Z. THIS
DEPENDS ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND IF THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GENERATE THUNDER. WEBER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 50 64 40 59 / 0 50 60 50
ALW 53 68 43 60 / 0 50 60 50
PSC 51 71 44 67 / 0 40 50 30
YKM 48 65 38 63 / 0 40 40 30
HRI 49 67 42 65 / 0 40 50 40
ELN 49 62 42 58 / 0 60 40 40
RDM 43 59 31 54 / 0 30 50 40
LGD 45 71 39 54 / 0 40 50 50
GCD 45 69 36 56 / 0 40 40 40
DLS 52 63 44 61 / 0 50 40 40
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
THREAT INDEX
TUESDAY : YELLOW
WEDNESDAY : GREEN
THURSDAY : GREEN
GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
94
000
FXUS66 KPDT 202250 AAA
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
350 PM PDT MON MAY 20 2013
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARDS, THEN INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF
TONIGHT, THOUGH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE.
MAY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE CASCADE CREST TOWARDS DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. INITIALLY THIS SYSTEM WILL INSTIGATE A MARINE PUSH
SWITCHING WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN TO THE WEST BY MID TUESDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE
CASCADE CREST LATE TUESDAY MORNING, EXITING THE AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL INCREASE THE WEST WINDS AND DEEPEN THE
LAYER OF MARINE AIR WEST OF THE CASCADES, COOLING TEMPS. WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THE
WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO REACH THE ADVISORY LEVEL OF 30 MPH OR GREATER
SUSTAINED. THE FRONT WILL BRING VARYING CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO THE
REGION AS WELL. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND
SHEAR LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY STRONG. AT THE SAME TIME, CAPE IS LIMITED,
THE SHEAR MAY TURN OUT TO BE TOO STRONG, AND THE FRONT MAY MOVE
THROUGH PRIOR TO PEAK HEATING. STILL WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
POSSIBILITY OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
FROM GRANT COUNTY NORTH INTO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST TO
WALLOWA COUNTY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LOW WILL WOBBLE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW CENTER WILL PRODUCE
BANDS OF SHOWERS AT TIMES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS, ESPECIALLY HIGHS,
WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
DAYTIME HEATING AND COLD AIR ALOFT COULD CREATE LAPSE RATES STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION STORMS
ONLY ON THURSDAY AS THERE APPEARS TO BETTER FOCUSING ON THIS DAY. 90
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SEVERAL
WEATHER PATTERN CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...KEEPING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT
OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH WAVES OF ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE
CIRCULATION. WHILE MODELS DON`T HAVE THE TIMING OF THESE WAVES DOWN
VERY WELL...THEY CERTAINLY HAVE THE ABILITY TO GENERATE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EAST OF
THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE OCHOCO JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS.
SUNDAY ONWARD...IT`S DIFFICULT TO TELL IF THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE WORK WEEK OR IF IT WILL BE REPLACED BY AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. THIS BRINGS LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AFTER SATURDAY. OVERALL MODELS DO TRY TO TRANSPORT WARMER AIR TO
THE AREA AFTER SATURDAY...SO HAVE INCREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE 70S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 50S TO 60S MOUNTAINS.
WEBER
&&
.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ASIDE FROM SOME THIN CIRRUS FOR REST OF
TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AT THE MID LEVELS TONIGHT WITH CLOUD
BASES NEAR 12000-15000 FT AGL. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 4-8 KTS BY
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH DURING THE
DAY TOMORROW AND WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA WITH INCREASED
WINDS 5-15KTS GUSTING TO 25KTS. THE EARLIEST SHOWERS SHOULD NOT
BEGIN UNTIL AFTER 18Z. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH THESE SHOWERS AFTER 18Z...BUT THEY SHOULD BE BRIEF. VCTS IS
POSSIBLE BUT HAVE NOT ADDED TO KPDT AND KALW AFTER 18Z. THIS
DEPENDS ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND IF THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GENERATE THUNDER. WEBER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 50 65 40 59 / 0 50 60 50
ALW 53 70 43 60 / 0 50 60 50
PSC 51 73 44 67 / 0 40 50 30
YKM 48 67 38 63 / 0 40 40 30
HRI 49 68 42 65 / 0 40 50 40
ELN 49 64 42 58 / 0 60 40 40
RDM 43 60 31 54 / 0 30 50 40
LGD 45 72 39 54 / 0 40 50 50
GCD 45 70 36 56 / 0 40 40 40
DLS 52 64 44 61 / 0 50 40 40
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
THREAT INDEX
TUESDAY : YELLOW
WEDNESDAY : GREEN
THURSDAY : GREEN
GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
90/89/89
000
FXUS66 KPDT 202146
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
246 PM PDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARDS, THEN INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF
TONIGHT, THOUGH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE.
MAY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE CASCADE CREST TOWARDS DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. INITIALLY THIS SYSTEM WILL INSTIGATE A MARINE PUSH SWITCHING
WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN TO THE WEST BY MID TUESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE
THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE CASCADE CREST
LATE TUESDAY MORNING, EXITING THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT
WILL INCREASE THE WEST WINDS AND DEEPEN THE LAYER OF MARINE AIR WEST
OF THE CASCADES, COOLING TEMPS. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THE WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO
REACH THE ADVISORY LEVEL OF 30 MPH OR GREATER SUSTAINED. THE FRONT
WILL BRING VARYING CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION AS WELL. THERE
IS SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND SHEAR LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY
STRONG. AT THE SAME TIME, CAPE IS LIMITED, THE SHEAR MAY TURN OUT TO
BE TOO STRONG, AND THE FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH PRIOR TO PEAK HEATING.
STILL WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM GRANT COUNTY NORTH INTO THE
BLUE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST TO WALLOWA COUNTY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LOW WILL WOBBLE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW CENTER WILL PRODUCE
BANDS OF SHOWERS AT TIMES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS, ESPECIALLY HIGHS,
WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
DAYTIME HEATING AND COLD AIR ALOFT COULD CREATE LAPSE RATES STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION STORMS
ONLY ON THURSDAY AS THERE APPEARS TO BETTER FOCUSING ON THIS DAY. 90
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SEVERAL
WEATHER PATTERN CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...KEEPING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT
OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH WAVES OF ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE
CIRCULATION. WHILE MODELS DON`T HAVE THE TIMING OF THESE WAVES DOWN
VERY WELL...THEY CERTAINLY HAVE THE ABILITY TO GENERATE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EAST OF
THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE OCHOCO JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS.
SUNDAY ONWARD...IT`S DIFFICULT TO TELL IF THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE WORK WEEK OR IF IT WILL BE REPLACED BY AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. THIS BRINGS LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AFTER SATURDAY. OVERALL MODELS DO TRY TO TRANSPORT WARMER AIR TO
THE AREA AFTER SATURDAY...SO HAVE INCREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE 70S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 50S TO 60S MOUNTAINS.
WEBER
&&
.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION 18Z TAFS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ASIDE
FROM SOME THIN CIRRUS THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AT THE MID
LEVELS TONIGHT WITH CLOUD BASES NEAR 12000-15000 FT AGL. UPSLOPE
WINDS 5-10 KTS BY LATE THIS MORNING BECOMING DRAINAGE WINDS 4-8 KTS
BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH DURING THE DAY TOMORROW
AND WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA WITH INCREASED WINDS.
SHOWERS MAY NOT BEGIN UNTIL AFTER 18Z...THEREFORE WILL WAIT FOR THE
00Z TAFS TO ADD SHOWERS AND INCREASED WINDS. WEBER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 50 65 40 59 / 0 50 60 50
ALW 53 70 43 60 / 0 50 60 50
PSC 51 73 44 67 / 0 40 50 30
YKM 48 67 38 63 / 0 40 40 30
HRI 49 68 42 65 / 0 40 50 40
ELN 49 64 42 58 / 0 60 40 40
RDM 43 60 31 54 / 0 30 50 40
LGD 45 72 39 54 / 0 40 50 50
GCD 45 70 36 56 / 0 40 40 40
DLS 52 64 44 61 / 0 50 40 40
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
THREAT INDEX
TUESDAY : YELLOW
WEDNESDAY : GREEN
THURSDAY : GREEN
GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
90/89/89
000
FXUS66 KPDT 201757 AAA
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1057 AM PDT MON MAY 20 2013
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION
.SHORT TERM...UPDATE...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A TRANSITORY UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. THIS RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AS A
DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH GENERALLY FAIR SKIES. SOME
CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WILL SEE INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LESS THAN 15 MPH THROUGH
TONIGHT. WILL SEE A GOOD WARM UP TODAY WITH LOW ELEVATION HIGHS
RUNNING FROM THE LOW 70S TO AROUND 80. UPDATES THIS MORNING WERE
MADE TO ADJUST SKY COVER, SOME HIGH TEMPS AND A FEW WIND DIRECTIONS.
90
.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN LIFT NORTHWARD
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE LOW REGROUPING
AND COMBINING WITH AN UPSTREAM MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING
EAST TOWARD THE COAST ON SATURDAY. THE TWO SYSTEMS MERGE ON SUNDAY
RESULTING IN A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PARKED ALONG THE COAST ON SUNDAY.
SNOW LEVELS AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE 3000-4000 FT
RISING TO 3500-4500 FT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING 3500-4500
FT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUS SNOW LEVELS WILL BE LOW ENOUGH
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.
MARGINAL DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING WILL YIELD STEEP TEMPERATURE LAPSE
RATES FROM 5000-20000 FT OF 7-8 DEGREES CELSIUS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, WHICH WILL PRODUCE AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN THE AFTERNOON
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS SUCH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND
THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND BRING DYNAMIC LIFT AND
INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE, WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
SURFACE HEATING LEADING TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS OF OREGON.
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ASIDE FROM SOME THIN
CIRRUS THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AT THE MID LEVELS TONIGHT
WITH CLOUD BASES NEAR 12000-15000 FT AGL. UPSLOPE WINDS 5-10 KTS BY
LATE THIS MORNING BECOMING DRAINAGE WINDS 4-8 KTS BY EARLY THIS
EVENING.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH DURING THE DAY TOMORROW
AND WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA WITH INCREASED WINDS.
SHOWERS MAY NOT BEGIN UNTIL AFTER 18Z...THEREFORE WILL WAIT FOR THE
00Z TAFS TO ADD SHOWERS AND INCREASED WINDS. WEBER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 77 51 69 40 / 0 0 30 50
ALW 78 54 73 45 / 0 0 30 50
PSC 81 52 76 47 / 0 0 20 50
YKM 79 48 74 41 / 0 0 40 40
HRI 80 50 72 44 / 0 0 20 50
ELN 78 49 65 44 / 0 0 40 60
RDM 74 44 61 29 / 0 0 20 50
LGD 75 47 71 39 / 0 0 30 50
GCD 76 45 67 36 / 0 0 40 50
DLS 79 53 63 43 / 0 0 50 60
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
THREAT INDEX
TODAY : GREEN
TUESDAY : GREEN
WEDNESDAY : GREEN
GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
90/99/89
000
FXUS66 KPDT 201601
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
901 AM PDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SHORT TERM...UPDATE...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A TRANSITORY UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. THIS RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AS A
DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH GENERALLY FAIR SKIES. SOME
CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WILL SEE INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LESS THAN 15 MPH THROUGH
TONIGHT. WILL SEE A GOOD WARM UP TODAY WITH LOW ELEVATION HIGHS
RUNNING FROM THE LOW 70S TO AROUND 80. UPDATES THIS MORNING WERE
MADE TO ADJUST SKY COVER, SOME HIGH TEMPS AND A FEW WIND DIRECTIONS.
90
.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN LIFT NORTHWARD
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE LOW REGROUPING
AND COMBINING WITH AN UPSTREAM MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING
EAST TOWARD THE COAST ON SATURDAY. THE TWO SYSTEMS MERGE ON SUNDAY
RESULTING IN A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PARKED ALONG THE COAST ON SUNDAY.
SNOW LEVELS AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE 3000-4000 FT
RISING TO 3500-4500 FT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING 3500-4500
FT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUS SNOW LEVELS WILL BE LOW ENOUGH
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.
MARGINAL DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING WILL YIELD STEEP TEMPERATURE LAPSE
RATES FROM 5000-20000 FT OF 7-8 DEGREES CELSIUS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, WHICH WILL PRODUCE AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN THE AFTERNOON
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS SUCH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND
THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND BRING DYNAMIC LIFT AND
INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE, WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
SURFACE HEATING LEADING TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS OF OREGON.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...12Z TAFS...CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING GIVING WAY TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AT KDLS AND KYKM DUE TO
SOME THIN CIRRUS BY LATE THIS MORNING. INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
TONIGHT WITH CLOUD BASES NEAR 12000-15000 FT AGL. UPSLOPE WINDS 5-10
KTS BY LATE THIS MORNING BECOMING DRAINAGE WINDS 4-8 KTS BY EARLY
THIS EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 77 51 69 40 / 0 0 30 50
ALW 78 54 73 45 / 0 0 30 50
PSC 81 52 76 47 / 0 0 20 50
YKM 79 48 74 41 / 0 0 40 40
HRI 80 50 72 44 / 0 0 20 50
ELN 78 49 65 44 / 0 0 40 60
RDM 74 44 61 29 / 0 0 20 50
LGD 75 47 71 39 / 0 0 30 50
GCD 76 45 67 36 / 0 0 40 50
DLS 79 53 63 43 / 0 0 50 60
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
THREAT INDEX
TODAY : GREEN
TUESDAY : GREEN
WEDNESDAY : GREEN
GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
90/99/89
000
FXUS66 KPDT 201228 AAA
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
528 AM PDT MON MAY 20 2013
UPDATED AVIATION AND LONG TERM DISCUSSIONS
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL MOVE OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP
THE CWA MOSTLY CLEAR AND WARMER...THOUGH SOME CIRRUS MAY MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. TUESDAY A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE
GULF OF ALASKA TO THE OREGON COAST...THEN SLIDE EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS, SHOWERS
AND FALLING TEMPERATURES. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE FRONT FROM GRANT COUNTY TO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND WALLOWA COUNTY
AS WELL. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST TUESDAY NIGHT SNOW LEVELS
WILL DROP TO 3-5 KFT. LOWEST SNOW LEVELS AND HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS
WILL BE NEAR THE LOW OVER CENTRAL OREGON TO THE OCHOCO JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS. GFS ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW SOME SPREAD IN THE LOCATION OF
THE LOW WEDNESDAY MORNING EVEN THOUGH IT IS ONLY A 60 HOUR FORECAST.
SINCE THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION BANDS DEPENDS ON THE
LOW AND VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND IT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WHERE
THEY WILL BE LOCATED. COONFIELD
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE LOW
REGROUPING AND COMBINING WITH AN UPSTREAM MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
MOVING EAST TOWARD THE COAST ON SATURDAY. THE TWO SYSTEMS MERGE ON
SUNDAY RESULTING IN A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PARKED ALONG THE COAST ON
SUNDAY.
SNOW LEVELS AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE 3000-4000 FT
RISING TO 3500-4500 FT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING 3500-4500
FT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUS SNOW LEVELS WILL BE LOW ENOUGH
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.
MARGINAL DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING WILL YIELD STEEP TEMPERATURE LAPSE
RATES FROM 5000-20000 FT OF 7-8 DEGREES CELSIUS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, WHICH WILL PRODUCE AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN THE AFTERNOON
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS SUCH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND
THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND BRING DYNAMIC LIFT AND
INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE, WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
SURFACE HEATING LEADING TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS OF OREGON. POLAN
&&
.AVIATION...12Z TAFS. CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING GIVING WAY TO
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AT KDLS AND KYKM DUE TO SOME THIN CIRRUS BY
LATE THIS MORNING. INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH CLOUD
BASES NEAR 12000-15000 FT AGL. UPSLOPE WINDS 5-10 KTS BY LATE THIS
MORNING BECOMING DRAINAGE WINDS 4-8 KTS BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
POLAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 77 51 69 40 / 0 0 30 50
ALW 78 54 73 45 / 0 0 30 50
PSC 81 52 76 47 / 0 0 20 50
YKM 79 48 74 41 / 0 0 40 40
HRI 80 50 72 44 / 0 0 20 50
ELN 79 49 65 44 / 0 0 40 60
RDM 74 44 61 29 / 0 0 20 50
LGD 76 47 71 39 / 0 0 30 50
GCD 77 45 67 36 / 0 0 40 50
DLS 79 53 63 43 / 0 0 50 60
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
THREAT INDEX
TODAY : GREEN
TUESDAY : GREEN
WEDNESDAY : GREEN
GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
76/99/99
000
FXUS66 KPDT 201006
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
305 AM PDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL MOVE OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP
THE CWA MOSTLY CLEAR AND WARMER...THOUGH SOME CIRRUS MAY MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. TUESDAY A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE
GULF OF ALASKA TO THE OREGON COAST...THEN SLIDE EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS, SHOWERS
AND FALLING TEMPERATURES. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE FRONT FROM GRANT COUNTY TO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND WALLOWA COUNTY
AS WELL. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST TUESDAY NIGHT SNOW LEVELS
WILL DROP TO 3-5 KFT. LOWEST SNOW LEVELS AND HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS
WILL BE NEAR THE LOW OVER CENTRAL OREGON TO THE OCHOCO JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS. GFS ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW SOME SPREAD IN THE LOCATION OF
THE LOW WEDNESDAY MORNING EVEN THOUGH IT IS ONLY A 60 HOUR FORECAST.
SINCE THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION BANDS DEPENDS ON THE
LOW AND VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND IT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WHERE
THEY WILL BE LOCATED. COONFIELD
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE LOW REGROUPING
AND COMBINING WITH AN UPSTREAM MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING
EAST TOWARD THE COAST ON SATURDAY. THE TWO SYSTEMS MERGE ON SUNDAY
WITH AN UPPER LOW ALONG THE COAST ON SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE LOW
ENOUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS. MARGINAL DAYTIME INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS. POLAN
&&
.PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH
SOME THIN CIRRUS ON MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS 5-15KT. 94
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 77 51 69 40 / 0 0 30 50
ALW 78 54 73 45 / 0 0 30 50
PSC 81 52 76 47 / 0 0 20 50
YKM 79 48 74 41 / 0 0 40 40
HRI 80 50 72 44 / 0 0 20 50
ELN 79 49 65 44 / 0 0 40 60
RDM 74 44 61 29 / 0 0 20 50
LGD 76 47 71 39 / 0 0 30 50
GCD 77 45 67 36 / 0 0 40 50
DLS 79 53 63 43 / 0 0 50 60
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
THREAT INDEX
TODAY : GREEN
TUESDAY : GREEN
WEDNESDAY : GREEN
GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
76/99/99
000
FXUS66 KPDT 200519
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1022 PM PDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SHORT TERM...WEAK INSTABILITY TODAY RESULTED IN CUMULUS FORMATION
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON. SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW
CLOUDS TO BE DECREASING AS SUNSET APPROACHES. EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WEST WINDS. THE LOW WILL LINGER OVER
WASHINGTON AND OREGON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND COOL
TEMPERATURES. 94
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH SOME THIN CIRRUS ON
MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS 5-15KT. 94
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM PDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST TONIGHT ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LIGHT, ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE SHOWERS ARE DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING
AND UPSLOPE FLOW AFFECTS, AND ARE COVERING A BIT MORE OF THE AREA
THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND THE AFTERNOON HEATING ENDS.
LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS WILL ALSO DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT.
THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BE OVER THE PACNW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. AS SUCH EXPECT FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS
PERIOD. MONDAY`S AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE
WEEK. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTH OUT OF NORTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA TO THE PACNW COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL THEN DRIFT ONSHORE INTO THE PACNW TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. INITIALLY THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
FALLING TEMPS. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO CAUSE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT. AT THIS TIME THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE A
THUNDERSTORM WILL THE BLUE MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO GRANT COUNTY AND EAST
TO WALLOWA COUNTY. AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS ONSHORE WILL SEE A
CONTINUING CHANCE OF SHOWERS, SOME OF WHICH WILL CAUSE SNOW AS SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO RUN BETWEEN
3000 AND 4000 FEET EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEN TO RISE TO BETWEEN
4000 AND 4500 FEET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME SNOW AMOUNTS
LOOK TO RUN 1 TO 3 INCHES ABOVE 4000 FEET. THERE IS SOME LINGERING
UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING WHERE HEAVIER PRECIP BANDS MAY SET UP, SO
HIGH SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE POSSIBLE. 90
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...COOLER THAN NORMAL
WITH UNSETTLED SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS UPPER LEVEL LOW
MEANDERS OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY AND THEN LIFTS TO THE NORTH ON
SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS START OUT 3500-4500 ON THURSDAY. BOTH EC AND GFS
ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS PATTERN. HAVE INTRODUCED
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF WALLOWA...UNION AND GRANT
COUNTIES FOR FRIDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS AS GFS SHOWS SOME
INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME. WITH UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA AND WEAK
SURFACE GRADIENTS...WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE UNTIL LOW
MOVES NORTH ON SUNDAY AND THEN SURFACE GRADIENTS INCREASE
SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE CASCADES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 44 76 50 69 / 10 0 0 30
ALW 50 78 53 72 / 10 0 0 30
PSC 44 81 49 74 / 0 0 0 20
YKM 40 78 45 68 / 0 0 0 30
HRI 42 80 47 72 / 0 0 0 20
ELN 44 78 47 66 / 0 0 0 40
RDM 31 75 43 64 / 0 0 0 20
LGD 42 73 45 70 / 20 0 0 30
GCD 40 75 42 70 / 20 0 0 30
DLS 46 81 51 67 / 0 0 0 50
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
THREAT INDEX
MONDAY : GREEN
TUESDAY : GREEN
WEDNESDAY : GREEN
GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
94/
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