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000
FXUS66 KPDT 311719 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1019 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...UPDATE...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. THROUGH FRIDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL LARGELY RUN THROUGH NEVADA
INTO IDAHO, EAST OF OREGON AND WASHINGTON DURING THIS PERIOD. THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE PACNW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY. AS SUCH, LINGERING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY WORK INTO OUR WASHINGTON ZONES. WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN
THE UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA THIS MORNING IS CAUSING A FEW SHOWERS AND THE ODD LIGHTNING
STRIKE OVER PORTIONS OF OUR OREGON ZONES. HAVE UPDATED MORNING
FORECASTS TO COVER THE AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. A
SECOND WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP VARYING AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING OVER OUR
OREGON ZONES THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL HAVE TO LOOK AT THE POTENTIAL OF
AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS DRIFTING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL WASHINGTON
OVERNIGHT FOR THE AFTERNOON ISSUANCE. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN VERY
WARM, BUT SHOULD BE 2-3 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. UPDATES OTHER THAN THOSE ALREADY MENTIONED
INCLUDED ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND TWEAKS TO HIGH TEMPS AND
WINDS. 90

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. EXPECT MOSTLY SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM CB THUNDERSTORM
ANVIL DEBRIS AND DEBRIS FROM CONVECTIVE CUMULUS TOWERS PRODUCING
SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS AS
WELL AS OVER THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON STARTING AROUND 21Z OR SOON THEREAFTER OVER THE
MOUNTAIN RIDGE TOPS IN CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL OREGON. KBDN AND
KRDM HAVE VCTS AFTER 21Z FOR SEVERAL HOURS WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
TO BE NEARBY. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE LIGHT UPSLOPE LESS THAN 10
KTS, EXCEPT AT KDLS WHERE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE 12-15 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS.  POLAN

&&

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EASTERN OREGON AND WASHINGTON
WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND TRIGGER
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY IN EASTERN OREGON AND ALONG
THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. MONDAY AND TUESDAY DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AND PUSH THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE MAY LINGER OVER THE NORTHEAST OREGON
MOUNTAINS TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WX...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WITH OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERY POOR TO MODERATE.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD NORTH AND EAST EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOST STORMS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE
WASHINGTON BORDER UNTIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL BE A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY WITH PRECIPITATION RANGING FROM A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH. RED FLAG
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON
THROUGH SATURDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST OREGON AND FAR SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON
STARTING THIS AFTERNOON. THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS STARTS THIS AFTERNOON AND GOES THROUGH SATURDAY. DMH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 100  67  97  66 /  20  20  20  20
ALW 101  72  99  71 /  10  10  20  20
PSC 103  67 100  67 /  10  10  20  20
YKM  99  66  98  67 /   0  10  20  20
HRI 101  66 100  66 /  10  10  20  20
ELN 100  61  95  61 /   0  10  20  20
RDM  95  56  92  55 /  30  30  30  30
LGD  95  59  92  60 /  30  30  30  30
GCD  97  62  93  60 /  30  30  30  30
DLS  97  67  97  67 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY ORZ503-505-506-509>511.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY
     ORZ050-502-507.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY ORZ049.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY
     WAZ030.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/99/76/84







000
FXUS66 KPDT 311556
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
856 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...UPDATE...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. THROUGH FRIDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL LARGELY RUN THROUGH NEVADA
INTO IDAHO, EAST OF OREGON AND WASHINGTON DURING THIS PERIOD. THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE PACNW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY. AS SUCH, LINGERING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY WORK INTO OUR WASHINGTON ZONES. WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN
THE UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA THIS MORNING IS CAUSING A FEW SHOWERS AND THE ODD LIGHTNING
STRIKE OVER PORTIONS OF OUR OREGON ZONES. HAVE UPDATED MORNING
FORECASTS TO COVER THE AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. A
SECOND WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP VARYING AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING OVER OUR
OREGON ZONES THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL HAVE TO LOOK AT THE POTENTIAL OF
AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS DRIFTING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL WASHINGTON
OVERNIGHT FOR THE AFTERNOON ISSUANCE. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN VERY
WARM, BUT SHOULD BE 2-3 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. UPDATES OTHER THAN THOSE ALREADY MENTIONED
INCLUDED ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND TWEAKS TO HIGH TEMPS AND
WINDS. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EASTERN OREGON AND WASHINGTON
WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND TRIGGER
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY IN EASTERN OREGON AND ALONG
THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. MONDAY AND TUESDAY DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AND PUSH THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE MAY LINGER OVER THE NORTHEAST OREGON
MOUNTAINS TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT MOSTLY MID AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS FROM THUNDERSTORM DEBRIS OVER THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REDEVELOP THURSDAY AROUND 21Z IN CENTRAL OREGON AND WILL CARRY
A VCTS GROUP AT KBDN AND KRDM FOR A FEW HOURS WITH STORMS LIKELY TO
BE NEARBY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...LESS THAN 10 KT EXCEPT UP
TO 15 KT AT KDLS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WX...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WITH OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERY POOR TO MODERATE.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD NORTH AND EAST EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOST STORMS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE
WASHINGTON BORDER UNTIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL BE A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY WITH PRECIPITATION RANGING FROM A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH. RED FLAG
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON
THROUGH SATURDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST OREGON AND FAR SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON
STARTING THIS AFTERNOON. THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS STARTS THIS AFTERNOON AND GOES THROUGH SATURDAY. DMH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 100  67  97  66 /  20  20  20  20
ALW 101  72  99  71 /  10  10  20  20
PSC 103  67 100  67 /  10  10  20  20
YKM  99  66  98  67 /   0  10  20  20
HRI 101  66 100  66 /  10  10  20  20
ELN 100  61  95  61 /   0  10  20  20
RDM  95  56  92  55 /  30  30  30  30
LGD  95  59  92  60 /  30  30  30  30
GCD  97  62  93  60 /  30  30  30  30
DLS  97  67  97  67 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY ORZ503-505-506-509>511.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY
     ORZ050-502-507.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY ORZ049.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY
     WAZ030.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/76/99/84








000
FXUS66 KPDT 311104 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
405 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY IS
EXPECTED WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THAT CONTINUES TO
WRAP AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE INLAND WEST.
THIS PATTERN HAS CAUSED THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON LAST EVENING
AND IT WILL DO SO AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO AFTERNOON
HEATING COMBINED WITH THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THERE
IS ALSO SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THIS MORNING SO HAVE ADDED
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL OREGON LATER THIS MORNING
BETWEEN 15Z-18Z. THE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND THIS
AFTERNOON TO INCLUDE NORTH CENTRAL OREGON EASTWARD TO THE IDAHO
BORDER...FROM THE BLUE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD. THE BEST
INSTABILITY STAYS OVER OREGON EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHWEST BLUE
MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON WHICH COULD ALSO SEE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG WITH
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM. THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE
VARYING AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL WHICH WILL RANGE FROM A FEW HUNDRETHS OF
AN INCH UP TO A HALF INCH POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER WITH THE EXPANDING COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL
HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES AS COMPARED TO THE LAST
TWO DAYS. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY
VALUES TODAY AS A RESULT. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WELL. THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
ABUNDANT LIGHTNING THAT WARRANTS A RED FLAG WARNING WHICH IS IN
EFFECT TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FROM THE BLUE MOUNTAINS
SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD INCLUDING CENTRAL OREGON. IF THE
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO EXTEND INTO AREAS NORTH OF THE CURRENT WARNING
AREA THE RED FLAG WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED IN AREAL COVERAGE.
A SLIGHT COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM IN ALL AREAS WITH LOWER
ELEVATIONS READINGS REACHING THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND UNDER 15 MPH EXCEPT NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH. THE STRONGEST NON-
THUNDERSTORM WINDS WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY IN THE EASTERN COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE AND THE WESTERN COLUMBIA BASIN OF OREGON AS PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON
SATURDAY. 88

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EASTERN OREGON AND
WASHINGTON WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND
TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY IN EASTERN OREGON
AND ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. MONDAY AND TUESDAY DRY WESTERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE SOUTH AND EAST.
HOWEVER ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE MAY LINGER OVER THE
NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT MOSTLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM
THUNDERSTORM DEBRIS OVER THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP
THURSDAY AROUND 21Z IN CENTRAL OREGON AND WILL CARRY A VCTS GROUP AT
KBDN AND KRDM FOR A FEW HOURS WITH STORMS LIKELY TO BE NEARBY. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...LESS THAN 10 KT EXCEPT UP TO 15 KT AT KDLS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  76

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 100  67  95  66 /  10  10  20  20
ALW 100  72  97  71 /  10  10  20  20
PSC 102  67  98  67 /  10  10  20  20
YKM  99  66  96  67 /   0  10  20  20
HRI 101  66  98  66 /  10  10  20  20
ELN 100  61  93  61 /   0  10  20  20
RDM  95  56  90  55 /  30  30  30  30
LGD  94  59  90  60 /  30  30  30  30
GCD  97  62  91  60 /  30  30  30  30
DLS  97  67  95  67 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY ORZ503-505-506-509>511.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY
     ORZ050-502-507.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY ORZ049.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY
     WAZ030.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/76/76







000
FXUS66 KPDT 311104 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
405 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY IS
EXPECTED WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THAT CONTINUES TO
WRAP AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE INLAND WEST.
THIS PATTERN HAS CAUSED THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON LAST EVENING
AND IT WILL DO SO AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO AFTERNOON
HEATING COMBINED WITH THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THERE
IS ALSO SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THIS MORNING SO HAVE ADDED
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL OREGON LATER THIS MORNING
BETWEEN 15Z-18Z. THE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND THIS
AFTERNOON TO INCLUDE NORTH CENTRAL OREGON EASTWARD TO THE IDAHO
BORDER...FROM THE BLUE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD. THE BEST
INSTABILITY STAYS OVER OREGON EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHWEST BLUE
MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON WHICH COULD ALSO SEE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG WITH
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM. THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE
VARYING AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL WHICH WILL RANGE FROM A FEW HUNDRETHS OF
AN INCH UP TO A HALF INCH POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER WITH THE EXPANDING COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL
HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES AS COMPARED TO THE LAST
TWO DAYS. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY
VALUES TODAY AS A RESULT. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WELL. THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
ABUNDANT LIGHTNING THAT WARRANTS A RED FLAG WARNING WHICH IS IN
EFFECT TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FROM THE BLUE MOUNTAINS
SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD INCLUDING CENTRAL OREGON. IF THE
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO EXTEND INTO AREAS NORTH OF THE CURRENT WARNING
AREA THE RED FLAG WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED IN AREAL COVERAGE.
A SLIGHT COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM IN ALL AREAS WITH LOWER
ELEVATIONS READINGS REACHING THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND UNDER 15 MPH EXCEPT NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH. THE STRONGEST NON-
THUNDERSTORM WINDS WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY IN THE EASTERN COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE AND THE WESTERN COLUMBIA BASIN OF OREGON AS PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON
SATURDAY. 88

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EASTERN OREGON AND
WASHINGTON WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND
TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY IN EASTERN OREGON
AND ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. MONDAY AND TUESDAY DRY WESTERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE SOUTH AND EAST.
HOWEVER ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE MAY LINGER OVER THE
NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT MOSTLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM
THUNDERSTORM DEBRIS OVER THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP
THURSDAY AROUND 21Z IN CENTRAL OREGON AND WILL CARRY A VCTS GROUP AT
KBDN AND KRDM FOR A FEW HOURS WITH STORMS LIKELY TO BE NEARBY. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...LESS THAN 10 KT EXCEPT UP TO 15 KT AT KDLS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  76

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 100  67  95  66 /  10  10  20  20
ALW 100  72  97  71 /  10  10  20  20
PSC 102  67  98  67 /  10  10  20  20
YKM  99  66  96  67 /   0  10  20  20
HRI 101  66  98  66 /  10  10  20  20
ELN 100  61  93  61 /   0  10  20  20
RDM  95  56  90  55 /  30  30  30  30
LGD  94  59  90  60 /  30  30  30  30
GCD  97  62  91  60 /  30  30  30  30
DLS  97  67  95  67 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY ORZ503-505-506-509>511.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY
     ORZ050-502-507.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY ORZ049.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY
     WAZ030.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/76/76








000
FXUS66 KPDT 310929
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
229 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY IS
EXPECTED WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THAT CONTINUES TO
WRAP AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE INLAND WEST.
THIS PATTERN HAS CAUSED THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON LAST EVENING
AND IT WILL DO SO AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO AFTERNOON
HEATING COMBINED WITH THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THERE
IS ALSO SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THIS MORNING SO HAVE ADDED
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL OREGON LATER THIS MORNING
BETWEEN 15Z-18Z. THE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND THIS
AFTERNOON TO INCLUDE NORTH CENTRAL OREGON EASTWARD TO THE IDAHO
BORDER...FROM THE BLUE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD. THE BEST
INSTABILITY STAYS OVER OREGON EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHWEST BLUE
MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON WHICH COULD ALSO SEE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG WITH
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM. THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE
VARYING AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL WHICH WILL RANGE FROM A FEW HUNDRETHS OF
AN INCH UP TO A HALF INCH POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER WITH THE EXPANDING COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL
HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES AS COMPARED TO THE LAST
TWO DAYS. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY
VALUES TODAY AS A RESULT. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WELL. THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
ABUNDANT LIGHTNING THAT WARRANTS A RED FLAG WARNING WHICH IS IN
EFFECT TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FROM THE BLUE MOUNTAINS
SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD INCLUDING CENTRAL OREGON. IF THE
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO EXTEND INTO AREAS NORTH OF THE CURRENT WARNING
AREA THE RED FLAG WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED IN AREAL COVERAGE.
A SLIGHT COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM IN ALL AREAS WITH LOWER
ELEVATIONS READINGS REACHING THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND UNDER 15 MPH EXCEPT NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH. THE STRONGEST NON-
THUNDERSTORM WINDS WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY IN THE EASTERN COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE AND THE WESTERN COLUMBIA BASIN OF OREGON AS PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON
SATURDAY. 88

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EASTERN OREGON AND
WASHINGTON WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND
TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY IN EASTERN OREGON
AND ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. MONDAY AND TUESDAY DRY WESTERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE SOUTH AND EAST.
HOWEVER ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE MAY LINGER OVER THE
NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT MOSTLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM
THUNDERSTORM DEBRIS OVER THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP
THURSDAY AROUND 21Z IN CENTRAL OREGON AND WILL CARRY A VCTS GROUP AT
KBDN AND KRDM FOR A FEW HOURS WITH STORMS LIKELY TO BE NEARBY. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...LESS THAN 10 KT EXCEPT UP TO 15 KT AT KDLS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 100  67  95  66 /  10  10  20  20
ALW 100  72  97  71 /  10  10  20  20
PSC 102  67  98  67 /  10  10  20  20
YKM  99  66  96  67 /   0  10  20  20
HRI 101  66  98  66 /  10  10  20  20
ELN 100  61  93  61 /   0  10  20  20
RDM  95  56  90  55 /  30  30  30  30
LGD  94  59  90  60 /  30  30  30  30
GCD  97  62  91  60 /  30  30  30  30
DLS  97  67  95  67 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY ORZ503-505-506-509>511.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY
     ORZ050-502-507.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY ORZ049.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY
     WAZ030.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/76/76









000
FXUS66 KPDT 310929
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
229 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY IS
EXPECTED WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THAT CONTINUES TO
WRAP AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE INLAND WEST.
THIS PATTERN HAS CAUSED THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON LAST EVENING
AND IT WILL DO SO AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO AFTERNOON
HEATING COMBINED WITH THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THERE
IS ALSO SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THIS MORNING SO HAVE ADDED
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL OREGON LATER THIS MORNING
BETWEEN 15Z-18Z. THE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND THIS
AFTERNOON TO INCLUDE NORTH CENTRAL OREGON EASTWARD TO THE IDAHO
BORDER...FROM THE BLUE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD. THE BEST
INSTABILITY STAYS OVER OREGON EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHWEST BLUE
MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON WHICH COULD ALSO SEE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG WITH
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM. THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE
VARYING AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL WHICH WILL RANGE FROM A FEW HUNDRETHS OF
AN INCH UP TO A HALF INCH POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER WITH THE EXPANDING COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL
HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES AS COMPARED TO THE LAST
TWO DAYS. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY
VALUES TODAY AS A RESULT. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WELL. THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
ABUNDANT LIGHTNING THAT WARRANTS A RED FLAG WARNING WHICH IS IN
EFFECT TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FROM THE BLUE MOUNTAINS
SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD INCLUDING CENTRAL OREGON. IF THE
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO EXTEND INTO AREAS NORTH OF THE CURRENT WARNING
AREA THE RED FLAG WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED IN AREAL COVERAGE.
A SLIGHT COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM IN ALL AREAS WITH LOWER
ELEVATIONS READINGS REACHING THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND UNDER 15 MPH EXCEPT NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH. THE STRONGEST NON-
THUNDERSTORM WINDS WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY IN THE EASTERN COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE AND THE WESTERN COLUMBIA BASIN OF OREGON AS PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON
SATURDAY. 88

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EASTERN OREGON AND
WASHINGTON WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND
TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY IN EASTERN OREGON
AND ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. MONDAY AND TUESDAY DRY WESTERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE SOUTH AND EAST.
HOWEVER ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE MAY LINGER OVER THE
NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT MOSTLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM
THUNDERSTORM DEBRIS OVER THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP
THURSDAY AROUND 21Z IN CENTRAL OREGON AND WILL CARRY A VCTS GROUP AT
KBDN AND KRDM FOR A FEW HOURS WITH STORMS LIKELY TO BE NEARBY. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...LESS THAN 10 KT EXCEPT UP TO 15 KT AT KDLS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 100  67  95  66 /  10  10  20  20
ALW 100  72  97  71 /  10  10  20  20
PSC 102  67  98  67 /  10  10  20  20
YKM  99  66  96  67 /   0  10  20  20
HRI 101  66  98  66 /  10  10  20  20
ELN 100  61  93  61 /   0  10  20  20
RDM  95  56  90  55 /  30  30  30  30
LGD  94  59  90  60 /  30  30  30  30
GCD  97  62  91  60 /  30  30  30  30
DLS  97  67  95  67 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY ORZ503-505-506-509>511.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY
     ORZ050-502-507.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY ORZ049.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY
     WAZ030.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/76/76










000
FXUS66 KPDT 310255
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
755 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL OREGON NEAR
THE CASCADES THIS EVENING WITH ONE OR TWO STRONG STORMS. THINK THE
THREAT WILL DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND THE FORECAST FOR
THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT LOOKS ON TRACK WITH MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS. HAVE BUMPED UP MIN TEMPERATURES A LITTLE GIVEN THE
EXTENSIVE BLOWOFF CLOUD COVER. THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AS
SCHEDULED AT 9 PM THIS EVENING. 78

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT MOSTLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM
THUNDERSTORM DEBRIS OVER THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP
THURSDAY AROUND 21Z IN CENTRAL OREGON AND WILL CARRY A VCTS GROUP AT
KBDN AND KRDM FOR A FEW HOURS WITH STORMS LIKELY TO BE NEARBY. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...LESS THAN 10 KT EXCEPT UP TO 15 KT AT KDLS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  66  98  67  96 /  10  10  10  20
ALW  71  98  72  97 /  10  10  10  20
PSC  68 101  67 100 /   0  10  10  20
YKM  64  98  66  96 /   0   0  10  20
HRI  67 100  66  99 /   0  10  10  20
ELN  58  99  61  98 /   0   0  10  20
RDM  57  94  56  92 /  30  30  30  30
LGD  61  93  59  91 /  20  30  30  30
GCD  63  96  62  94 /  30  30  30  30
DLS  67  96  67  94 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY ORZ503-505-506-509>511.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY
     ORZ050-502-507.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING ORZ044-507.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY ORZ049.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY WAZ030.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING WAZ027-029.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING WAZ028.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

78






000
FXUS66 KPDT 310255
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
755 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL OREGON NEAR
THE CASCADES THIS EVENING WITH ONE OR TWO STRONG STORMS. THINK THE
THREAT WILL DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND THE FORECAST FOR
THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT LOOKS ON TRACK WITH MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS. HAVE BUMPED UP MIN TEMPERATURES A LITTLE GIVEN THE
EXTENSIVE BLOWOFF CLOUD COVER. THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AS
SCHEDULED AT 9 PM THIS EVENING. 78

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT MOSTLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM
THUNDERSTORM DEBRIS OVER THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP
THURSDAY AROUND 21Z IN CENTRAL OREGON AND WILL CARRY A VCTS GROUP AT
KBDN AND KRDM FOR A FEW HOURS WITH STORMS LIKELY TO BE NEARBY. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...LESS THAN 10 KT EXCEPT UP TO 15 KT AT KDLS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  66  98  67  96 /  10  10  10  20
ALW  71  98  72  97 /  10  10  10  20
PSC  68 101  67 100 /   0  10  10  20
YKM  64  98  66  96 /   0   0  10  20
HRI  67 100  66  99 /   0  10  10  20
ELN  58  99  61  98 /   0   0  10  20
RDM  57  94  56  92 /  30  30  30  30
LGD  61  93  59  91 /  20  30  30  30
GCD  63  96  62  94 /  30  30  30  30
DLS  67  96  67  94 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY ORZ503-505-506-509>511.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY
     ORZ050-502-507.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING ORZ044-507.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY ORZ049.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY WAZ030.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING WAZ027-029.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING WAZ028.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

78







000
FXUS66 KPDT 302142
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
242 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AS A RESULT THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL RUN SOUTHWEST TO
WEST-SOUTHWEST. WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL
PERIODICALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THESE WAVES WILL GRAB PIECES OF
THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE COVERING THE SOUTHWEST U.S., BUT THE PACNW
WILL NOT SEE A FULL TAP INTO THIS MOISTURE. THESE WAVES, COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING, WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OF
VARYING COVERAGES THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MAIN AREA AFFECTED INTO THIS
EVENING WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL OREGON WITH LESSER
COVERAGES INTO THE BLUES AND WALLOWAS. COVERAGES OF STORMS WILL
INCREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE WAVE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE STRONGEST OF THE SERIES. THUS WILL PUSH
SCATTERED COVERAGE INTO NORTHEAST OREGON THURSDAY AND ALSO CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LINGERING STORMS OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS THAT
SOME OF OUR WESTERN ZONES MAY SEE INCREASING DRYING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD LIMIT SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THESE
ZONES. FOR NOW WILL INDICATE AN AREA OF DRYING INTO THE AREA AROUND
THE GORGE, BUT LEAVE SHOWERS/STORMS MENTIONED ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL, BUT WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS SHOULD SEE TEMPS COOL A FEW DEGREES. THUS
WILL NOT EXTEND THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORIES BEYOND THEIR EXPIRATION
THIS EVENING. 90

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AMPLIFIED
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL FORECAST TO RELAX
HEIGHTS ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, BUT OTHERWISE MAINTAIN ITS ORIENTATION ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.

SOUTHERLY TRANSPORT OF MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHOULD REACH A
PEAK ON SUNDAY. DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING WILL DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS, THE
SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE WALLOWA MOUNTAINS. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY THE RIDGE LOSES AMPLITUDE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM TROUGH IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THIS SYSTEM
IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF AROUND 100
DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER, HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL
BE MODERATED A BIT BY VIRTUE OF A WEAK MARINE PUSH ON WEDNESDAY.
POLAN

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. FEW-SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THUNDERSTORM ANVIL
BLOWOFF OVER THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL OREGON THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KDLS, KPDT AND KALW AFTER 22Z. THIS
AFTERNOON EXPECT A REPEAT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON AFTER
21Z AND HAVE VCTS IN THE TAFS AT KBDN AND KRDM STARTING AT 22Z.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, EXCEPT
KDLS MAY HAVE SOME GUSTS UP TO 26 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. KRDM AND KBDN
WILL HAVE SUSTAINED NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KTS FOR THE REMAINDER
THIS AFTERNOON AND UNTIL SUNSET, EXCEPT WHEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THE VICINITY WHICH MAY PRODUCE OUTFLOW GUST FRONTS WITH VARIABLE
WINDS 20-25 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 35 KTS.  POLAN

&&

.FIRE WX...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL
BE POOR TO MODERATE. EACH DAY THIS WEEK...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AND SPREAD NORTH AND EAST AS SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTERACT WITH MONSOON FLOW. MOST THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF
THE WASHINGTON BORDER UNTIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL BE A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY WITH PRECIPITATION RANGING FROM A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH. RED FLAG
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON
THROUGH SATURDAY. OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS A LARGER AREA ON THURSDAY...AND RED FLAG WARNINGS
FOR THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS BEGIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. COBB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  67  98  67  96 /  10  10  10  20
ALW  72  98  72  97 /  10  10  10  20
PSC  65 101  67 100 /   0  10  10  20
YKM  64  98  66  96 /   0   0  10  20
HRI  65 100  66  99 /   0  10  10  20
ELN  60  99  61  98 /   0   0  10  20
RDM  55  94  56  92 /  30  30  30  30
LGD  61  93  59  91 /  20  30  30  30
GCD  61  96  62  94 /  30  30  30  30
DLS  67  96  67  94 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY ORZ503-505-506-509>511.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY
     ORZ050-502-507.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING ORZ044-507.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY ORZ049.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY WAZ030.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING WAZ027-029.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING WAZ028.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/99/99/82








000
FXUS66 KPDT 302142
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
242 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AS A RESULT THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL RUN SOUTHWEST TO
WEST-SOUTHWEST. WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL
PERIODICALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THESE WAVES WILL GRAB PIECES OF
THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE COVERING THE SOUTHWEST U.S., BUT THE PACNW
WILL NOT SEE A FULL TAP INTO THIS MOISTURE. THESE WAVES, COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING, WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OF
VARYING COVERAGES THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MAIN AREA AFFECTED INTO THIS
EVENING WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL OREGON WITH LESSER
COVERAGES INTO THE BLUES AND WALLOWAS. COVERAGES OF STORMS WILL
INCREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE WAVE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE STRONGEST OF THE SERIES. THUS WILL PUSH
SCATTERED COVERAGE INTO NORTHEAST OREGON THURSDAY AND ALSO CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LINGERING STORMS OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS THAT
SOME OF OUR WESTERN ZONES MAY SEE INCREASING DRYING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD LIMIT SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THESE
ZONES. FOR NOW WILL INDICATE AN AREA OF DRYING INTO THE AREA AROUND
THE GORGE, BUT LEAVE SHOWERS/STORMS MENTIONED ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL, BUT WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS SHOULD SEE TEMPS COOL A FEW DEGREES. THUS
WILL NOT EXTEND THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORIES BEYOND THEIR EXPIRATION
THIS EVENING. 90

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AMPLIFIED
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL FORECAST TO RELAX
HEIGHTS ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, BUT OTHERWISE MAINTAIN ITS ORIENTATION ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.

SOUTHERLY TRANSPORT OF MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHOULD REACH A
PEAK ON SUNDAY. DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING WILL DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS, THE
SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE WALLOWA MOUNTAINS. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY THE RIDGE LOSES AMPLITUDE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM TROUGH IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THIS SYSTEM
IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF AROUND 100
DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER, HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL
BE MODERATED A BIT BY VIRTUE OF A WEAK MARINE PUSH ON WEDNESDAY.
POLAN

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. FEW-SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THUNDERSTORM ANVIL
BLOWOFF OVER THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL OREGON THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KDLS, KPDT AND KALW AFTER 22Z. THIS
AFTERNOON EXPECT A REPEAT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON AFTER
21Z AND HAVE VCTS IN THE TAFS AT KBDN AND KRDM STARTING AT 22Z.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, EXCEPT
KDLS MAY HAVE SOME GUSTS UP TO 26 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. KRDM AND KBDN
WILL HAVE SUSTAINED NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KTS FOR THE REMAINDER
THIS AFTERNOON AND UNTIL SUNSET, EXCEPT WHEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THE VICINITY WHICH MAY PRODUCE OUTFLOW GUST FRONTS WITH VARIABLE
WINDS 20-25 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 35 KTS.  POLAN

&&

.FIRE WX...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL
BE POOR TO MODERATE. EACH DAY THIS WEEK...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AND SPREAD NORTH AND EAST AS SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTERACT WITH MONSOON FLOW. MOST THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF
THE WASHINGTON BORDER UNTIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL BE A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY WITH PRECIPITATION RANGING FROM A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH. RED FLAG
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON
THROUGH SATURDAY. OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS A LARGER AREA ON THURSDAY...AND RED FLAG WARNINGS
FOR THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS BEGIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. COBB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  67  98  67  96 /  10  10  10  20
ALW  72  98  72  97 /  10  10  10  20
PSC  65 101  67 100 /   0  10  10  20
YKM  64  98  66  96 /   0   0  10  20
HRI  65 100  66  99 /   0  10  10  20
ELN  60  99  61  98 /   0   0  10  20
RDM  55  94  56  92 /  30  30  30  30
LGD  61  93  59  91 /  20  30  30  30
GCD  61  96  62  94 /  30  30  30  30
DLS  67  96  67  94 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY ORZ503-505-506-509>511.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY
     ORZ050-502-507.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING ORZ044-507.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY ORZ049.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY WAZ030.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING WAZ027-029.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING WAZ028.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/99/99/82









000
FXUS66 KPDT 301808 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1105 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...UPDATE...AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
THIS MORNING. AS SUCH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST REMAINS SOUTHWEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST. ONE WAVE WITHIN THIS
FLOW WILL SWING OUT OF THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME DRYING
AND STABILIZING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL WASHINGTON. WILL DECREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
OVER NORTHEAST OREGON DUE TO THE DECREASING INSTABILITY BEHIND THIS
EXITING WAVE. MEANWHILE ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE NORTH OUT OF
CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF MOISTURE AND LIFT INTO CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL OREGON.
THUS WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THESE AREAS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OREGON ARE RUNNING AROUND 1 INCH
SO EXPECT MEASURABLE PRECIP UNDER STORM CORES IN CENTRAL AND EAST-
CENTRAL OREGON. WILL SEE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY AND WILL KEEP CURRENT
HEAT ADVISORIES IN PLACE. 90

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. FEW-SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THUNDERSTORM ANVIL
BLOWOFF OVER THE COLUMBIA-DESCHUTES PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KDLS, KPDT AND KALW AFTER 22Z. THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT A
REPEAT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON AFTER 21Z AND HAVE VCTS IN
THE TAFS AT KBDN AND KRDM STARTING AT 22Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 15 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, EXCEPT KDLS MAY HAVE SOME GUSTS
UP TO 26 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. KRDM AND KBDN WILL HAVE SUSTAINED
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10-20 KTS, EXCEPT WHEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
VICINITY WHICH MAY PRODUCE OUTFLOW GUST FRONTS WITH VARIABLE WINDS
20-25 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 35-40 KTS.  POLAN

&&

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EASTERN OREGON AND WASHINGTON
WILL BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY MORNING. SEVERAL WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND RIDE
OVER THE RIDGE. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL BRING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. THIS SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL ALSO BRING MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AT TIMES.
THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED BY HEATING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WEAK WAVES MAY TRIGGER NIGHTTIME
CONVECTION AS WELL.

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING
A WAVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
LINGER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DECREASING OVERNIGHT. SATURDAY
ANOTHER WAVE WILL FORM OFFSHORE AND MOVE INTO EASTERN OREGON AND
WASHINGTON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CWA.
MONDAY THE GFS KEEPS A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BRINGS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A WESTERLY FLOW
WITH THE BEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN SOUTHERN IDAHO AND MONTANA.
THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW BOTH SCENARIOS. KEPT A PERSISTENCE FORECAST
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST OREGON
MOUNTAINS...BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS. TUESDAY BOTH 0Z
MODELS INDICATE DRY WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BUT ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE MAY LINGER OVER THE NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS TO
TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WX...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL
BE POOR TO MODERATE. EACH DAY THIS WEEK...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AND SPREAD NORTH AND EAST AS SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTERACT WITH MONSOON FLOW. MOST THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF
THE WASHINGTON BORDER UNTIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL BE A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY WITH PRECIPITATION RANGING FROM A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH. RED FLAG
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ACROSS CENTRAL
OREGON TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...ONLY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS A LARGER AREA ON THURSDAY...AND RED
FLAG WARNINGS FOR THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS BEGIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
COBB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 103  69  98  69 /  10  10  10  10
ALW 103  72  99  73 /  10  10  10  10
PSC 105  69 101  70 /  10   0  10  10
YKM 101  67  99  69 /   0   0  10  10
HRI 105  69 100  69 /  10   0  10  10
ELN 100  62  97  62 /   0   0  10  10
RDM  96  61  93  60 /  30  30  30  30
LGD  97  64  92  62 /  20  20  30  30
GCD  99  64  92  63 /  30  30  30  30
DLS  96  67  97  68 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY
     ORZ503-505-506-509>511.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY
     ORZ050-502-507.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     ORZ044-507.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY
     ORZ049.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY WAZ030.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     WAZ027-029.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING WAZ028.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/76/99/82








000
FXUS66 KPDT 301808 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1105 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...UPDATE...AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
THIS MORNING. AS SUCH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST REMAINS SOUTHWEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST. ONE WAVE WITHIN THIS
FLOW WILL SWING OUT OF THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME DRYING
AND STABILIZING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL WASHINGTON. WILL DECREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
OVER NORTHEAST OREGON DUE TO THE DECREASING INSTABILITY BEHIND THIS
EXITING WAVE. MEANWHILE ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE NORTH OUT OF
CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF MOISTURE AND LIFT INTO CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL OREGON.
THUS WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THESE AREAS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OREGON ARE RUNNING AROUND 1 INCH
SO EXPECT MEASURABLE PRECIP UNDER STORM CORES IN CENTRAL AND EAST-
CENTRAL OREGON. WILL SEE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY AND WILL KEEP CURRENT
HEAT ADVISORIES IN PLACE. 90

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. FEW-SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THUNDERSTORM ANVIL
BLOWOFF OVER THE COLUMBIA-DESCHUTES PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KDLS, KPDT AND KALW AFTER 22Z. THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT A
REPEAT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON AFTER 21Z AND HAVE VCTS IN
THE TAFS AT KBDN AND KRDM STARTING AT 22Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 15 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, EXCEPT KDLS MAY HAVE SOME GUSTS
UP TO 26 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. KRDM AND KBDN WILL HAVE SUSTAINED
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10-20 KTS, EXCEPT WHEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
VICINITY WHICH MAY PRODUCE OUTFLOW GUST FRONTS WITH VARIABLE WINDS
20-25 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 35-40 KTS.  POLAN

&&

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EASTERN OREGON AND WASHINGTON
WILL BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY MORNING. SEVERAL WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND RIDE
OVER THE RIDGE. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL BRING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. THIS SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL ALSO BRING MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AT TIMES.
THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED BY HEATING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WEAK WAVES MAY TRIGGER NIGHTTIME
CONVECTION AS WELL.

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING
A WAVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
LINGER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DECREASING OVERNIGHT. SATURDAY
ANOTHER WAVE WILL FORM OFFSHORE AND MOVE INTO EASTERN OREGON AND
WASHINGTON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CWA.
MONDAY THE GFS KEEPS A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BRINGS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A WESTERLY FLOW
WITH THE BEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN SOUTHERN IDAHO AND MONTANA.
THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW BOTH SCENARIOS. KEPT A PERSISTENCE FORECAST
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST OREGON
MOUNTAINS...BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS. TUESDAY BOTH 0Z
MODELS INDICATE DRY WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BUT ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE MAY LINGER OVER THE NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS TO
TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WX...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL
BE POOR TO MODERATE. EACH DAY THIS WEEK...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AND SPREAD NORTH AND EAST AS SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTERACT WITH MONSOON FLOW. MOST THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF
THE WASHINGTON BORDER UNTIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL BE A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY WITH PRECIPITATION RANGING FROM A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH. RED FLAG
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ACROSS CENTRAL
OREGON TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...ONLY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS A LARGER AREA ON THURSDAY...AND RED
FLAG WARNINGS FOR THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS BEGIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
COBB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 103  69  98  69 /  10  10  10  10
ALW 103  72  99  73 /  10  10  10  10
PSC 105  69 101  70 /  10   0  10  10
YKM 101  67  99  69 /   0   0  10  10
HRI 105  69 100  69 /  10   0  10  10
ELN 100  62  97  62 /   0   0  10  10
RDM  96  61  93  60 /  30  30  30  30
LGD  97  64  92  62 /  20  20  30  30
GCD  99  64  92  63 /  30  30  30  30
DLS  96  67  97  68 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY
     ORZ503-505-506-509>511.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY
     ORZ050-502-507.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     ORZ044-507.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY
     ORZ049.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY WAZ030.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     WAZ027-029.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING WAZ028.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/76/99/82







000
FXUS66 KPDT 301611
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
911 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...UPDATE...AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
THIS MORNING. AS SUCH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST REMAINS SOUTHWEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST. ONE WAVE WITHIN THIS
FLOW WILL SWING OUT OF THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME DRYING
AND STABILIZING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL WASHINGTON. WILL DECREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
OVER NORTHEAST OREGON DUE TO THE DECREASING INSTABILITY BEHIND THIS
EXITING WAVE. MEANWHILE ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE NORTH OUT OF
CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF MOISTURE AND LIFT INTO CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL OREGON.
THUS WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THESE AREAS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OREGON ARE RUNNING AROUND 1 INCH
SO EXPECT MEASURABLE PRECIP UNDER STORM CORES IN CENTRAL AND EAST-
CENTRAL OREGON. WILL SEE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY AND WILL KEEP CURRENT
HEAT ADVISORIES IN PLACE. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EASTERN OREGON AND WASHINGTON
WILL BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY MORNING. SEVERAL WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND RIDE
OVER THE RIDGE. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL BRING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. THIS SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL ALSO BRING MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AT TIMES.
THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED BY HEATING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WEAK WAVES MAY TRIGGER NIGHTTIME
CONVECTION AS WELL.

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING
A WAVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
LINGER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DECREASING OVERNIGHT. SATURDAY
ANOTHER WAVE WILL FORM OFFSHORE AND MOVE INTO EASTERN OREGON AND
WASHINGTON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CWA.
MONDAY THE GFS KEEPS A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BRINGS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A WESTERLY FLOW
WITH THE BEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN SOUTHERN IDAHO AND MONTANA.
THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW BOTH SCENARIOS. KEPT A PERSISTENCE FORECAST
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST OREGON
MOUNTAINS...BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS. TUESDAY BOTH 0Z
MODELS INDICATE DRY WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BUT ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE MAY LINGER OVER THE NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS TO
TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM
BLOWOFF OF PREVIOUS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES. THIS
AFTERNOON EXPECT A REPEAT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON AFTER
21Z AND HAVE VCTS IN THE TAFS ONCE AGAIN AT KBDN AND KRDM. SURFACE
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
THOUGH KDLS MAY HAVE SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS AFTER 16Z WHEN THE
WINDS PICK UP AGAIN. KRDM AND KBDN MAY HAVE WINDS OF 10-20 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS DURING NEARBY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.FIRE WX...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL
BE POOR TO MODERATE. EACH DAY THIS WEEK...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AND SPREAD NORTH AND EAST AS SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTERACT WITH MONSOON FLOW. MOST THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF
THE WASHINGTON BORDER UNTIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL BE A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY WITH PRECIPITATION RANGING FROM A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH. RED FLAG
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ACROSS CENTRAL
OREGON TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...ONLY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS A LARGER AREA ON THURSDAY...AND RED
FLAG WARNINGS FOR THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS BEGIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
COBB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 103  69  98  69 /  10  10  10  10
ALW 103  72  99  73 /  10  10  10  10
PSC 105  69 101  70 /  10   0  10  10
YKM 101  67  99  69 /   0   0  10  10
HRI 105  69 100  69 /  10   0  10  10
ELN 100  62  97  62 /   0   0  10  10
RDM  96  61  93  60 /  30  30  30  30
LGD  97  64  92  62 /  20  20  30  30
GCD  99  64  92  63 /  30  30  30  30
DLS  96  67  97  68 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY
     ORZ503-505-506-509>511.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY
     ORZ050-502-507.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     ORZ044-507.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY
     ORZ049.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY WAZ030.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     WAZ027-029.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING WAZ028.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/76/99/82









000
FXUS66 KPDT 301611
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
911 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...UPDATE...AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
THIS MORNING. AS SUCH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST REMAINS SOUTHWEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST. ONE WAVE WITHIN THIS
FLOW WILL SWING OUT OF THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME DRYING
AND STABILIZING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL WASHINGTON. WILL DECREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
OVER NORTHEAST OREGON DUE TO THE DECREASING INSTABILITY BEHIND THIS
EXITING WAVE. MEANWHILE ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE NORTH OUT OF
CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF MOISTURE AND LIFT INTO CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL OREGON.
THUS WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THESE AREAS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OREGON ARE RUNNING AROUND 1 INCH
SO EXPECT MEASURABLE PRECIP UNDER STORM CORES IN CENTRAL AND EAST-
CENTRAL OREGON. WILL SEE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY AND WILL KEEP CURRENT
HEAT ADVISORIES IN PLACE. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EASTERN OREGON AND WASHINGTON
WILL BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY MORNING. SEVERAL WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND RIDE
OVER THE RIDGE. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL BRING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. THIS SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL ALSO BRING MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AT TIMES.
THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED BY HEATING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WEAK WAVES MAY TRIGGER NIGHTTIME
CONVECTION AS WELL.

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING
A WAVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
LINGER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DECREASING OVERNIGHT. SATURDAY
ANOTHER WAVE WILL FORM OFFSHORE AND MOVE INTO EASTERN OREGON AND
WASHINGTON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CWA.
MONDAY THE GFS KEEPS A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BRINGS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A WESTERLY FLOW
WITH THE BEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN SOUTHERN IDAHO AND MONTANA.
THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW BOTH SCENARIOS. KEPT A PERSISTENCE FORECAST
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST OREGON
MOUNTAINS...BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS. TUESDAY BOTH 0Z
MODELS INDICATE DRY WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BUT ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE MAY LINGER OVER THE NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS TO
TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM
BLOWOFF OF PREVIOUS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES. THIS
AFTERNOON EXPECT A REPEAT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON AFTER
21Z AND HAVE VCTS IN THE TAFS ONCE AGAIN AT KBDN AND KRDM. SURFACE
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
THOUGH KDLS MAY HAVE SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS AFTER 16Z WHEN THE
WINDS PICK UP AGAIN. KRDM AND KBDN MAY HAVE WINDS OF 10-20 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS DURING NEARBY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.FIRE WX...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL
BE POOR TO MODERATE. EACH DAY THIS WEEK...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AND SPREAD NORTH AND EAST AS SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTERACT WITH MONSOON FLOW. MOST THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF
THE WASHINGTON BORDER UNTIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL BE A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY WITH PRECIPITATION RANGING FROM A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH. RED FLAG
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ACROSS CENTRAL
OREGON TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...ONLY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS A LARGER AREA ON THURSDAY...AND RED
FLAG WARNINGS FOR THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS BEGIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
COBB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 103  69  98  69 /  10  10  10  10
ALW 103  72  99  73 /  10  10  10  10
PSC 105  69 101  70 /  10   0  10  10
YKM 101  67  99  69 /   0   0  10  10
HRI 105  69 100  69 /  10   0  10  10
ELN 100  62  97  62 /   0   0  10  10
RDM  96  61  93  60 /  30  30  30  30
LGD  97  64  92  62 /  20  20  30  30
GCD  99  64  92  63 /  30  30  30  30
DLS  96  67  97  68 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY
     ORZ503-505-506-509>511.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY
     ORZ050-502-507.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     ORZ044-507.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY
     ORZ049.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY WAZ030.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     WAZ027-029.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING WAZ028.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/76/99/82








000
FXUS66 KPDT 301113 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
413 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA SET OFF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL OREGON YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT HOWEVER
SATELLITE SHOWS SOME REMAINING CLOUDINESS STILL MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. BASED ON MOVEMENT SPEED MOST OF THE CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING. EXPECT A PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES
THEN INCREASING CLOUDS AGAIN AS INSTABILITY AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
OREGON THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES
FAIRLY WARM AND SHOULD HAVE ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S WITH
100-105 IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL
PATTERN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WITH A SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
INTO THE AREA. MONSOON MOISTURE AND OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVES WILL
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. FOR THURSDAY APPEARS THE ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN
BE MOSTLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON. MODELS SHOWING ACTIVITY
ON FRIDAY MAY EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO WASHINGTON. CURRENT FORECAST HAS
THIS COVERED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT HOWEVER INCREASED
CLOUDINESS DURING THE DAY MAY CUT DOWN ON HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. 94

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...EASTERN OREGON AND
WASHINGTON WILL BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. SEVERAL WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA AND RIDE OVER THE RIDGE. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL BRING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AT
TIMES. THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED BY HEATING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WEAK WAVES MAY TRIGGER NIGHTTIME
CONVECTION AS WELL.

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING
A WAVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
LINGER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DECREASING OVERNIGHT. SATURDAY
ANOTHER WAVE WILL FORM OFFSHORE AND MOVE INTO EASTERN OREGON AND
WASHINGTON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CWA.
MONDAY THE GFS KEEPS A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BRINGS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A WESTERLY FLOW
WITH THE BEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN SOUTHERN IDAHO AND MONTANA.
THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW BOTH SCENARIOS. KEPT A PERSISTENCE FORECAST
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST OREGON
MOUNTAINS...BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS. TUESDAY BOTH 0Z
MODELS INDICATE DRY WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BUT ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE MAY LINGER OVER THE NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS TO
TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.  COONFIELD

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM BLOWOFF OF PREVIOUS
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES. THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT A
REPEAT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON AFTER 21Z AND HAVE VCTS IN
THE TAFS ONCE AGAIN AT KBDN AND KRDM. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH KDLS MAY HAVE SOME
GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS AFTER 16Z WHEN THE WINDS PICK UP AGAIN. KRDM AND
KBDN MAY HAVE WINDS OF 10-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURING NEARBY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. 76

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FIRE WEATHER WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES THROUGH SATURDAY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABUNDANT LIGHTNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 104  68  98  69 /  10  10  10  10
ALW 104  71  99  73 /   0  10  10  10
PSC 104  68 101  70 /   0   0  10  10
YKM 103  66  99  69 /   0   0  10  10
HRI 104  68 100  69 /   0   0  10  10
ELN 101  61  97  62 /   0   0  10  10
RDM  98  60  93  60 /  20  20  30  30
LGD  97  63  92  62 /  30  20  30  30
GCD  96  63  92  63 /  30  30  30  30
DLS  98  66  97  68 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY      EVENING ORZ049-050-502-503-505>507-509>511.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     ORZ044-507.

WA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY      EVENING WAZ030.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     WAZ027-029.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING WAZ028.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/76/76







000
FXUS66 KPDT 300943
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
244 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA SET OFF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL OREGON YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT HOWEVER
SATELLITE SHOWS SOME REMAINING CLOUDINESS STILL MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. BASED ON MOVEMENT SPEED MOST OF THE CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING. EXPECT A PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES
THEN INCREASING CLOUDS AGAIN AS INSTABILITY AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
OREGON THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES
FAIRLY WARM AND SHOULD HAVE ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S WITH
100-105 IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL
PATTERN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WITH A SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
INTO THE AREA. MONSOON MOISTURE AND OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVES WILL
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. FOR THURSDAY APPEARS THE ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN
BE MOSTLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON. MODELS SHOWING ACTIVITY
ON FRIDAY MAY EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO WASHINGTON. CURRENT FORECAST HAS
THIS COVERED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT HOWEVER INCREASED
CLOUDINESS DURING THE DAY MAY CUT DOWN ON HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. 94

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...EASTERN OREGON AND
WASHINGTON WILL BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. SEVERAL WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA AND RIDE OVER THE RIDGE. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL BRING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AT
TIMES. THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED BY HEATING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WEAK WAVES MAY TRIGGER NIGHTTIME
CONVECTION AS WELL.

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING
A WAVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
LINGER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DECREASING OVERNIGHT. SATURDAY
ANOTHER WAVE WILL FORM OFFSHORE AND MOVE INTO EASTERN OREGON AND
WASHINGTON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CWA.
MONDAY THE GFS KEEPS A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BRINGS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A WESTERLY FLOW
WITH THE BEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN SOUTHERN IDAHO AND MONTANA.
THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW BOTH SCENARIOS. KEPT A PERSISTENCE FORECAST
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST OREGON
MOUNTAINS...BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS. TUESDAY BOTH 0Z
MODELS INDICATE DRY WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BUT ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE MAY LINGER OVER THE NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS TO
TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.  COONFIELD

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM BLOWOFF OF PREVIOUS
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES.  EXPECT THAT
COVERAGE WILL DECREASE AS THE NIGHT MOVES ON. TOMORROW AFTERNOON
EXPECT A REPEAT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON AFTER 21Z AND
HAVE VCTS IN THE TAFS ONCE AGAIN AT KBDN AND KRDM. SURFACE WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH KDLS
MAY HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND GUST
UP TO 30 KTS AFTER 18Z WHEN THE WINDS PICK UP AGAIN. KRDM AND KBDN
MAY HAVE WINDS OF 10-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURING NEARBY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WEBER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FIRE WEATHER WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES THROUGH SATURDAY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABUNDANT LIGHTNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 104  68  98  69 /  10  10  10  10
ALW 104  71  99  73 /   0  10  10  10
PSC 104  68 101  70 /   0   0  10  10
YKM 103  66  99  69 /   0   0  10  10
HRI 104  68 100  69 /   0   0  10  10
ELN 101  61  97  62 /   0   0  10  10
RDM  98  60  93  60 /  20  20  30  30
LGD  97  63  92  62 /  30  20  30  30
GCD  96  63  92  63 /  30  30  30  30
DLS  98  66  97  68 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING ORZ049-050-502-503-505>507-509>511.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     ORZ044-507.

WA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING WAZ030.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     WAZ027-029.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING WAZ028.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/76/76






000
FXUS66 KPDT 300943
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
244 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA SET OFF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL OREGON YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT HOWEVER
SATELLITE SHOWS SOME REMAINING CLOUDINESS STILL MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. BASED ON MOVEMENT SPEED MOST OF THE CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING. EXPECT A PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES
THEN INCREASING CLOUDS AGAIN AS INSTABILITY AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
OREGON THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES
FAIRLY WARM AND SHOULD HAVE ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S WITH
100-105 IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL
PATTERN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WITH A SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
INTO THE AREA. MONSOON MOISTURE AND OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVES WILL
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. FOR THURSDAY APPEARS THE ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN
BE MOSTLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON. MODELS SHOWING ACTIVITY
ON FRIDAY MAY EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO WASHINGTON. CURRENT FORECAST HAS
THIS COVERED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT HOWEVER INCREASED
CLOUDINESS DURING THE DAY MAY CUT DOWN ON HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. 94

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...EASTERN OREGON AND
WASHINGTON WILL BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. SEVERAL WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA AND RIDE OVER THE RIDGE. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL BRING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AT
TIMES. THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED BY HEATING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WEAK WAVES MAY TRIGGER NIGHTTIME
CONVECTION AS WELL.

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING
A WAVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
LINGER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DECREASING OVERNIGHT. SATURDAY
ANOTHER WAVE WILL FORM OFFSHORE AND MOVE INTO EASTERN OREGON AND
WASHINGTON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CWA.
MONDAY THE GFS KEEPS A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BRINGS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A WESTERLY FLOW
WITH THE BEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN SOUTHERN IDAHO AND MONTANA.
THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW BOTH SCENARIOS. KEPT A PERSISTENCE FORECAST
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST OREGON
MOUNTAINS...BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS. TUESDAY BOTH 0Z
MODELS INDICATE DRY WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BUT ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE MAY LINGER OVER THE NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS TO
TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.  COONFIELD

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM BLOWOFF OF PREVIOUS
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES.  EXPECT THAT
COVERAGE WILL DECREASE AS THE NIGHT MOVES ON. TOMORROW AFTERNOON
EXPECT A REPEAT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON AFTER 21Z AND
HAVE VCTS IN THE TAFS ONCE AGAIN AT KBDN AND KRDM. SURFACE WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH KDLS
MAY HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND GUST
UP TO 30 KTS AFTER 18Z WHEN THE WINDS PICK UP AGAIN. KRDM AND KBDN
MAY HAVE WINDS OF 10-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURING NEARBY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WEBER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FIRE WEATHER WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES THROUGH SATURDAY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABUNDANT LIGHTNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 104  68  98  69 /  10  10  10  10
ALW 104  71  99  73 /   0  10  10  10
PSC 104  68 101  70 /   0   0  10  10
YKM 103  66  99  69 /   0   0  10  10
HRI 104  68 100  69 /   0   0  10  10
ELN 101  61  97  62 /   0   0  10  10
RDM  98  60  93  60 /  20  20  30  30
LGD  97  63  92  62 /  30  20  30  30
GCD  96  63  92  63 /  30  30  30  30
DLS  98  66  97  68 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING ORZ049-050-502-503-505>507-509>511.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     ORZ044-507.

WA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING WAZ030.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     WAZ027-029.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING WAZ028.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/76/76







000
FXUS66 KPDT 300527 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1027 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HELPED TO
IGNITE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 11 PM THIS EVENING. MORE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MAY ISSUE SOME FIRE WEATHER WATCHES LATER
THIS EVENING FOR THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND BASED ON THE 00 UTC MODEL
RUNS IF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD. OTHERWISE
THE CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. 78

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM BLOWOFF OF PREVIOUS
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES.  EXPECT THAT
COVERAGE WILL DECREASE AS THE NIGHT MOVES ON. TOMORROW AFTERNOON
EXPECT A REPEAT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON AFTER 21Z AND
HAVE VCTS IN THE TAFS ONCE AGAIN AT KBDN AND KRDM. SURFACE WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH KDLS
MAY HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND GUST
UP TO 30 KTS AFTER 18Z WHEN THE WINDS PICK UP AGAIN. KRDM AND KBDN
MAY HAVE WINDS OF 10-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURING NEARBY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  69  99  67  98 /  10  10  10  10
ALW  70  99  71  99 /   0  10  10  10
PSC  69 102  68 101 /   0   0   0  10
YKM  64 100  64 100 /   0   0   0  10
HRI  67 101  67 100 /   0   0   0  10
ELN  59  99  59  98 /   0   0   0  10
RDM  60  94  57  93 /  30  20  20  20
LGD  64  94  62  93 /  20  20  20  20
GCD  67  93  63  91 /  30  30  30  20
DLS  64  97  65  97 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY WAZ028.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

78













000
FXUS66 KPDT 300527 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1027 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HELPED TO
IGNITE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 11 PM THIS EVENING. MORE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MAY ISSUE SOME FIRE WEATHER WATCHES LATER
THIS EVENING FOR THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND BASED ON THE 00 UTC MODEL
RUNS IF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD. OTHERWISE
THE CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. 78

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM BLOWOFF OF PREVIOUS
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES.  EXPECT THAT
COVERAGE WILL DECREASE AS THE NIGHT MOVES ON. TOMORROW AFTERNOON
EXPECT A REPEAT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON AFTER 21Z AND
HAVE VCTS IN THE TAFS ONCE AGAIN AT KBDN AND KRDM. SURFACE WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH KDLS
MAY HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND GUST
UP TO 30 KTS AFTER 18Z WHEN THE WINDS PICK UP AGAIN. KRDM AND KBDN
MAY HAVE WINDS OF 10-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURING NEARBY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  69  99  67  98 /  10  10  10  10
ALW  70  99  71  99 /   0  10  10  10
PSC  69 102  68 101 /   0   0   0  10
YKM  64 100  64 100 /   0   0   0  10
HRI  67 101  67 100 /   0   0   0  10
ELN  59  99  59  98 /   0   0   0  10
RDM  60  94  57  93 /  30  20  20  20
LGD  64  94  62  93 /  20  20  20  20
GCD  67  93  63  91 /  30  30  30  20
DLS  64  97  65  97 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY WAZ028.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

78












000
FXUS66 KPDT 300223
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
718 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HELPED TO
IGNITE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 11 PM THIS EVENING. MORE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MAY ISSUE SOME FIRE WEATHER WATCHES LATER
THIS EVENING FOR THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND BASED ON THE 00 UTC MODEL
RUNS IF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD. OTHERWISE
THE CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  69  99  67  98 /  10  10  10  10
ALW  70  99  71  99 /   0  10  10  10
PSC  69 102  68 101 /   0   0   0  10
YKM  64 100  64 100 /   0   0   0  10
HRI  67 101  67 100 /   0   0   0  10
ELN  59  99  59  98 /   0   0   0  10
RDM  60  94  57  93 /  30  20  20  20
LGD  64  94  62  93 /  20  20  20  20
GCD  67  93  63  91 /  30  30  30  20
DLS  64  97  65  97 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY WAZ028.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

78










000
FXUS66 KPDT 300223
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
718 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HELPED TO
IGNITE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 11 PM THIS EVENING. MORE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MAY ISSUE SOME FIRE WEATHER WATCHES LATER
THIS EVENING FOR THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND BASED ON THE 00 UTC MODEL
RUNS IF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD. OTHERWISE
THE CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  69  99  67  98 /  10  10  10  10
ALW  70  99  71  99 /   0  10  10  10
PSC  69 102  68 101 /   0   0   0  10
YKM  64 100  64 100 /   0   0   0  10
HRI  67 101  67 100 /   0   0   0  10
ELN  59  99  59  98 /   0   0   0  10
RDM  60  94  57  93 /  30  20  20  20
LGD  64  94  62  93 /  20  20  20  20
GCD  67  93  63  91 /  30  30  30  20
DLS  64  97  65  97 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY WAZ028.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

78









000
FXUS66 KPDT 292242 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
342 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AND BEYOND. MOISTURE WORKING
ITS WAY AROUND THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
FROM CENTRAL OREGON TO NORTHEAST OREGON WITH SOME SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK AS MOISTURE BECOMES MORE ABUNDANT IN THE
ATMOSPHERE. THE HIGH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH
DAYTIME AND OVERNIGHT. OTHER THAN SOME LOCAL BREEZY WINDS ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER THE WEST THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. OUR
AREA WILL BE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW.
SEVERAL WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AND
MODELS ARE COMING INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT THE DETAILS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WINDING DOWN IN THE LATE EVENING
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OREGON, THE
EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS AND THE WASHINGTON CASCADES NEAR CLE ELUM.
ON SATURDAY A WAVE WILL BE OFF THE COAST AND WILL CREATE A WEAK
TROUGH OFFSHORE. THIS WILL TURN THE FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY AND SEND A
STREAM OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE AREA, THOUGH AT THIS POINT, THE
WASHINGTON COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE WASHINGTON CASCADES NORTH OF MOUNT
ADAMS LOOK DRY. ON SUNDAY THE WAVE WEAKENS IN THE ECMWF AND REMAINS
ALONG THE COAST IN THE GFS. THE ECMWF SHOWS LITTLE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WHILE THE GFS SHOWS ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
CENTRAL OREGON. CURRENT FORECAST WAS SIMILAR TO THE GFS SO HAVE KEPT
IT FOR NOW. ON MONDAY THE ECMWF HAS THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER IDAHO
WITH ANOTHER DRY DAY WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAKENING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HAVE CUT BACK A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO CENTRAL OREGON, THE EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS AND THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES. BY TUESDAY BOTH MODELS ARE HINTING THAT AN UPPER LOW IN
THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL NUDGE THE RIDGE OVER INTO MONTANA. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WHILE MOISTURE IS MARGINAL,
INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE PRESENT SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTER OREGON MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE MID 90S AND LOWER 100S WITH MID 80S TO MID 90S
IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS ABOVE 10000 FEET AGL HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 04Z-05Z. THIS WILL AFFECT KBDN
AND KRDM AND HAVE PLACED VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR THOSE SITES. THE REST
OF THE AREA WILL HAVE FEW-SCT HIGH CUMULUS AND CIRRUS INITIALLY BUT
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AS THUNDERSTORM BLOWOFF REACHES AREAS
FURTHER NORTH. COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW AFTERNOON
EXPECT A REPEAT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON AFTER 21Z AND
HAVE VCTS IN THE TAFS ONCE AGAIN AT KBDN AND KRDM. SURFACE WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH KDLS
MAY HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS THROUGH 05Z AND AGAIN AFTER 18Z. KRDM
AND KBDN MAY HAVE WINDS OF 10-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURING NEARBY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. PERRY

&&

.FIRE WX...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL
BE POOR TO MODERATE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIDGES EAST OF THE
CASCADES. FURTHERMORE...MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL
BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL OREGON...THE JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS AND WALLOWA COUNTY THROUGH THIS EVENING. EACH DAY THIS
WEEK...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD
NORTH AND EAST AS SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH THE
MONSOON FLOW. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOSTLY STAY SOUTH OF
THE WASHINGTON BORDER UNTIL FRIDAY. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
INITIALLY HAVE LIMITED PRECIPITATION SO WILL MONITOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS MODEL CONSISTENCY TO DETERMINE IF ANY RED
FLAG WARNINGS WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED IN THE COMING DAYS.  COBB


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  68  99  67  98 /  10  10  10  10
ALW  71  99  71  99 /   0  10  10  10
PSC  68 102  68 101 /   0   0   0  10
YKM  65 100  64 100 /   0   0   0  10
HRI  68 101  67 100 /   0   0   0  10
ELN  59  99  59  98 /   0   0   0  10
RDM  57  94  57  93 /  30  20  20  20
LGD  61  94  62  93 /  20  20  20  20
GCD  66  93  63  91 /  30  20  30  20
DLS  67  97  65  97 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY WAZ028.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/83/83







000
FXUS66 KPDT 292132
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
233 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AND BEYOND. MOISTURE WORKING
ITS WAY AROUND THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
FROM CENTRAL OREGON TO NORTHEAST OREGON WITH SOME SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK AS MOISTURE BECOMES MORE ABUNDANT IN THE
ATMOSPHERE. THE HIGH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH
DAYTIME AND OVERNIGHT. OTHER THAN SOME LOCAL BREEZY WINDS ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER THE WEST THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. OUR
AREA WILL BE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW.
SEVERAL WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AND
MODELS ARE COMING INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT THE DETAILS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WINDING DOWN IN THE LATE EVENING
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OREGON, THE
EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS AND THE WASHINGTON CASCADES NEAR CLE ELUM.
ON SATURDAY A WAVE WILL BE OFF THE COAST AND WILL CREATE A WEAK
TROUGH OFFSHORE. THIS WILL TURN THE FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY AND SEND A
STREAM OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE AREA, THOUGH AT THIS POINT, THE
WASHINGTON COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE WASHINGTON CASCADES NORTH OF MOUNT
ADAMS LOOK DRY. ON SUNDAY THE WAVE WEAKENS IN THE ECMWF AND REMAINS
ALONG THE COAST IN THE GFS. THE ECMWF SHOWS LITTLE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WHILE THE GFS SHOWS ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
CENTRAL OREGON. CURRENT FORECAST WAS SIMILAR TO THE GFS SO HAVE KEPT
IT FOR NOW. ON MONDAY THE ECMWF HAS THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER IDAHO
WITH ANOTHER DRY DAY WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAKENING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HAVE CUT BACK A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO CENTRAL OREGON, THE EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS AND THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES. BY TUESDAY BOTH MODELS ARE HINTING THAT AN UPPER LOW IN
THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL NUDGE THE RIDGE OVER INTO MONTANA. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WHILE MOISTURE IS MARGINAL,
INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE PRESENT SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTER OREGON MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE MID 90S AND LOWER 100S WITH MID 80S TO MID 90S
IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY



&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH FEW-SCT MID-HIGH CLOUDS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT-BKN
HIGH BASED CUMULUS CLOUDS IN CENTRAL OREGON INCLUDING KBDN AND KRDM
IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTH AND NORTHEAST INTO
THE EVENING. STRAY THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL OREGON
AFTER 21Z AND COULD IMPACT KBDN AND KRDM UNTIL 05Z. CONFIDENCE IS A
LITTLE HIGHER TODAY SO HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT KBDN AND KRDM BUT IT IS
STILL MARGINAL THAT TS WILL OCCUR NEAR THOSE SITES. RESIDUAL
CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH GRADUAL DISSIPATION.
SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS THOUGH KDLS MAY HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.  PERRY


&&

.FIRE WX...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL
BE POOR TO MODERATE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIDGES EAST OF THE
CASCADES. FURTHERMORE...MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL
BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL OREGON...THE JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS AND WALLOWA COUNTY THROUGH THIS EVENING. EACH DAY THIS
WEEK...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD
NORTH AND EAST AS SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH THE
MONSOON FLOW. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOSTLY STAY SOUTH OF
THE WASHINGTON BORDER UNTIL FRIDAY. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
INITIALLY HAVE LIMITED PRECIPITATION SO WILL MONITOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS MODEL CONSISTENCY TO DETERMINE IF ANY RED
FLAG WARNINGS WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED IN THE COMING DAYS.  COBB



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  68  99  67  98 /  10  10  10  10
ALW  71  99  71  99 /   0  10  10  10
PSC  68 102  68 101 /   0   0   0  10
YKM  65 100  64 100 /   0   0   0  10
HRI  68 101  67 100 /   0   0   0  10
ELN  59  99  59  98 /   0   0   0  10
RDM  57  94  57  93 /  30  20  20  20
LGD  61  94  62  93 /  20  20  20  20
GCD  66  93  63  91 /  30  20  30  20
DLS  67  97  65  97 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY WAZ028.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/83/83









000
FXUS66 KPDT 292132
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
233 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AND BEYOND. MOISTURE WORKING
ITS WAY AROUND THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
FROM CENTRAL OREGON TO NORTHEAST OREGON WITH SOME SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK AS MOISTURE BECOMES MORE ABUNDANT IN THE
ATMOSPHERE. THE HIGH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH
DAYTIME AND OVERNIGHT. OTHER THAN SOME LOCAL BREEZY WINDS ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER THE WEST THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. OUR
AREA WILL BE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW.
SEVERAL WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AND
MODELS ARE COMING INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT THE DETAILS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WINDING DOWN IN THE LATE EVENING
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OREGON, THE
EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS AND THE WASHINGTON CASCADES NEAR CLE ELUM.
ON SATURDAY A WAVE WILL BE OFF THE COAST AND WILL CREATE A WEAK
TROUGH OFFSHORE. THIS WILL TURN THE FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY AND SEND A
STREAM OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE AREA, THOUGH AT THIS POINT, THE
WASHINGTON COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE WASHINGTON CASCADES NORTH OF MOUNT
ADAMS LOOK DRY. ON SUNDAY THE WAVE WEAKENS IN THE ECMWF AND REMAINS
ALONG THE COAST IN THE GFS. THE ECMWF SHOWS LITTLE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WHILE THE GFS SHOWS ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
CENTRAL OREGON. CURRENT FORECAST WAS SIMILAR TO THE GFS SO HAVE KEPT
IT FOR NOW. ON MONDAY THE ECMWF HAS THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER IDAHO
WITH ANOTHER DRY DAY WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAKENING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HAVE CUT BACK A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO CENTRAL OREGON, THE EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS AND THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES. BY TUESDAY BOTH MODELS ARE HINTING THAT AN UPPER LOW IN
THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL NUDGE THE RIDGE OVER INTO MONTANA. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WHILE MOISTURE IS MARGINAL,
INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE PRESENT SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTER OREGON MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE MID 90S AND LOWER 100S WITH MID 80S TO MID 90S
IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY



&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH FEW-SCT MID-HIGH CLOUDS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT-BKN
HIGH BASED CUMULUS CLOUDS IN CENTRAL OREGON INCLUDING KBDN AND KRDM
IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTH AND NORTHEAST INTO
THE EVENING. STRAY THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL OREGON
AFTER 21Z AND COULD IMPACT KBDN AND KRDM UNTIL 05Z. CONFIDENCE IS A
LITTLE HIGHER TODAY SO HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT KBDN AND KRDM BUT IT IS
STILL MARGINAL THAT TS WILL OCCUR NEAR THOSE SITES. RESIDUAL
CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH GRADUAL DISSIPATION.
SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS THOUGH KDLS MAY HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.  PERRY


&&

.FIRE WX...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL
BE POOR TO MODERATE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIDGES EAST OF THE
CASCADES. FURTHERMORE...MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL
BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL OREGON...THE JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS AND WALLOWA COUNTY THROUGH THIS EVENING. EACH DAY THIS
WEEK...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD
NORTH AND EAST AS SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH THE
MONSOON FLOW. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOSTLY STAY SOUTH OF
THE WASHINGTON BORDER UNTIL FRIDAY. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
INITIALLY HAVE LIMITED PRECIPITATION SO WILL MONITOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS MODEL CONSISTENCY TO DETERMINE IF ANY RED
FLAG WARNINGS WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED IN THE COMING DAYS.  COBB



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  68  99  67  98 /  10  10  10  10
ALW  71  99  71  99 /   0  10  10  10
PSC  68 102  68 101 /   0   0   0  10
YKM  65 100  64 100 /   0   0   0  10
HRI  68 101  67 100 /   0   0   0  10
ELN  59  99  59  98 /   0   0   0  10
RDM  57  94  57  93 /  30  20  20  20
LGD  61  94  62  93 /  20  20  20  20
GCD  66  93  63  91 /  30  20  30  20
DLS  67  97  65  97 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY WAZ028.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/83/83










000
FXUS66 KPDT 291712 RRA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1011 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN WITH HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND
MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS. SOME MOISTURE MOVING AROUND THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TO
NORTHEAST OREGON MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH FEW-SCT MID-HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
ALSO SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT-BKN HIGH BASED CUMULUS CLOUDS IN
CENTRAL OREGON INCLUDING KBDN AND KRDM IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTH AND NORTHEAST INTO THE EVENING. STRAY
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL OREGON AFTER 21Z AND COULD
IMPACT KBDN AND KRDM UNTIL 05Z. CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER TODAY
SO HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT KBDN AND KRDM BUT IT IS STILL MARGINAL THAT
TS WILL OCCUR NEAR THOSE SITES. RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH GRADUAL DISSIPATION. SURFACE WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH KDLS MAY
HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  PERRY

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 244 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY
WILL ALSO BE PRESENT EACH DAY AS SURFACE TEMPS ARE IN THE 90S TO
LOWER 100S AND MODEL CROSS SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY. WAITING ON STRONGER SHORT WAVES TO PROVIDE LIFT TO GET
MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPULSES SEEN
ON SATELLITE FOR THE SHORT TERM...A COUPLE WEAK ONES VICINITY OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODELS ARE SHOWING THESE WEAK SHORT WAVES
MOVING THROUGH AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS WITH CONVECTION
CONCENTRATED MOSTLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL REMAIN HOT. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR A PORTION OF THE
WASHINGTON COLUMBIA BASIN WHERE HIGHS WILL BE 100-105. SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FAIRLY WARM AS
WELL.  94

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...EASTERN OREGON AND
WASHINGTON WILL BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL BRING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AT
TIMES. THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED BY HEATING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WEAK WAVES MAY TRIGGER NIGHTTIME
CONVECTION AS WELL. HOWEVER, MODELS DIVERGE ON DETAILS OF THE DAY TO
DAY SITUATION SO CONFIDENCE ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY IS LOW.

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. THE GFS BRINGS A WAVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHILE
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE EASTERN WASHINGTON/OREGON
BORDER. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON
FRIDAY SINCE EITHER SCENARIO HAS MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WITH A TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION. THE WAVE/UPPER LOW MOVES INTO MONTANA (GFS) OR NORTH
INTO CANADA (ECMWF) ON SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A WEAK WAVE
FORMING OFFSHORE AND MOVING INTO OREGON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THIS WILL REINFORCE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND KEEP A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN OREGON. MONDAY THE GFS KEEPS A SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND BRINGS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A WESTERLY FLOW WITH THE BEST CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL IN IDAHO AND MONTANA. THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW BOTH
SCENARIOS. KEPT A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN
DETAILS. COONFIELD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 100  68  99  67 /  10  10  10  10
ALW 101  71  99  69 /   0   0  10  10
PSC 103  68 102  68 /   0   0   0   0
YKM 100  65 100  65 /   0   0   0   0
HRI 103  68 101  67 /   0   0  10  10
ELN  99  59  99  60 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  95  57  94  58 /  20  20  20  20
LGD  97  61  94  61 /  10  20  20  20
GCD  95  66  93  61 /  20  20  20  20
DLS  98  67  97  66 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     WAZ028.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/83/83







000
FXUS66 KPDT 291712 RRA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1011 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN WITH HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND
MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS. SOME MOISTURE MOVING AROUND THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TO
NORTHEAST OREGON MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH FEW-SCT MID-HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
ALSO SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT-BKN HIGH BASED CUMULUS CLOUDS IN
CENTRAL OREGON INCLUDING KBDN AND KRDM IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTH AND NORTHEAST INTO THE EVENING. STRAY
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL OREGON AFTER 21Z AND COULD
IMPACT KBDN AND KRDM UNTIL 05Z. CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER TODAY
SO HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT KBDN AND KRDM BUT IT IS STILL MARGINAL THAT
TS WILL OCCUR NEAR THOSE SITES. RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH GRADUAL DISSIPATION. SURFACE WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH KDLS MAY
HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  PERRY

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 244 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY
WILL ALSO BE PRESENT EACH DAY AS SURFACE TEMPS ARE IN THE 90S TO
LOWER 100S AND MODEL CROSS SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY. WAITING ON STRONGER SHORT WAVES TO PROVIDE LIFT TO GET
MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPULSES SEEN
ON SATELLITE FOR THE SHORT TERM...A COUPLE WEAK ONES VICINITY OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODELS ARE SHOWING THESE WEAK SHORT WAVES
MOVING THROUGH AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS WITH CONVECTION
CONCENTRATED MOSTLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL REMAIN HOT. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR A PORTION OF THE
WASHINGTON COLUMBIA BASIN WHERE HIGHS WILL BE 100-105. SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FAIRLY WARM AS
WELL.  94

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...EASTERN OREGON AND
WASHINGTON WILL BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL BRING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AT
TIMES. THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED BY HEATING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WEAK WAVES MAY TRIGGER NIGHTTIME
CONVECTION AS WELL. HOWEVER, MODELS DIVERGE ON DETAILS OF THE DAY TO
DAY SITUATION SO CONFIDENCE ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY IS LOW.

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. THE GFS BRINGS A WAVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHILE
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE EASTERN WASHINGTON/OREGON
BORDER. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON
FRIDAY SINCE EITHER SCENARIO HAS MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WITH A TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION. THE WAVE/UPPER LOW MOVES INTO MONTANA (GFS) OR NORTH
INTO CANADA (ECMWF) ON SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A WEAK WAVE
FORMING OFFSHORE AND MOVING INTO OREGON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THIS WILL REINFORCE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND KEEP A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN OREGON. MONDAY THE GFS KEEPS A SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND BRINGS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A WESTERLY FLOW WITH THE BEST CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL IN IDAHO AND MONTANA. THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW BOTH
SCENARIOS. KEPT A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN
DETAILS. COONFIELD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 100  68  99  67 /  10  10  10  10
ALW 101  71  99  69 /   0   0  10  10
PSC 103  68 102  68 /   0   0   0   0
YKM 100  65 100  65 /   0   0   0   0
HRI 103  68 101  67 /   0   0  10  10
ELN  99  59  99  60 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  95  57  94  58 /  20  20  20  20
LGD  97  61  94  61 /  10  20  20  20
GCD  95  66  93  61 /  20  20  20  20
DLS  98  67  97  66 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     WAZ028.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/83/83








000
FXUS66 KPDT 291711
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1011 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN WITH HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND
MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS. SOME MOISTURE MOVING AROUND THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TO
NORTHEAST OREGON MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
FEW-SCT MID-HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO SEE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCT-BKN HIGH BASED CUMULUS CLOUDS IN CENTRAL OREGON
INCLUDING KBDN AND KRDM IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD
NORTH AND NORTHEAST INTO THE EVENING. STRAY THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL OREGON AFTER 21Z AND COULD IMPACT KBDN AND KRDM
UNTIL 05Z. CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER TODAY SO HAVE INCLUDED VCTS
AT KBDN AND KRDM BUT IT IS STILL MARGINAL THAT TS WILL OCCUR NEAR
THOSE SITES. RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH GRADUAL DISSIPATION. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW
15 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH KDLS MAY HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20
KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  PERRY

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 244 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY
WILL ALSO BE PRESENT EACH DAY AS SURFACE TEMPS ARE IN THE 90S TO
LOWER 100S AND MODEL CROSS SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY. WAITING ON STRONGER SHORT WAVES TO PROVIDE LIFT TO GET
MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPULSES SEEN
ON SATELLITE FOR THE SHORT TERM...A COUPLE WEAK ONES VICINITY OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODELS ARE SHOWING THESE WEAK SHORT WAVES
MOVING THROUGH AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS WITH CONVECTION
CONCENTRATED MOSTLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL REMAIN HOT. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR A PORTION OF THE
WASHINGTON COLUMBIA BASIN WHERE HIGHS WILL BE 100-105. SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FAIRLY WARM AS
WELL.  94

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...EASTERN OREGON AND
WASHINGTON WILL BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL BRING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AT
TIMES. THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED BY HEATING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WEAK WAVES MAY TRIGGER NIGHTTIME
CONVECTION AS WELL. HOWEVER, MODELS DIVERGE ON DETAILS OF THE DAY TO
DAY SITUATION SO CONFIDENCE ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY IS LOW.

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. THE GFS BRINGS A WAVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHILE
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE EASTERN WASHINGTON/OREGON
BORDER. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON
FRIDAY SINCE EITHER SCENARIO HAS MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WITH A TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION. THE WAVE/UPPER LOW MOVES INTO MONTANA (GFS) OR NORTH
INTO CANADA (ECMWF) ON SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A WEAK WAVE
FORMING OFFSHORE AND MOVING INTO OREGON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THIS WILL REINFORCE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND KEEP A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN OREGON. MONDAY THE GFS KEEPS A SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND BRINGS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A WESTERLY FLOW WITH THE BEST CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL IN IDAHO AND MONTANA. THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW BOTH
SCENARIOS. KEPT A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN
DETAILS. COONFIELD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 100  68  99  67 /  10  10  10  10
ALW 101  71  99  69 /   0   0  10  10
PSC 103  68 102  68 /   0   0   0   0
YKM 100  65 100  65 /   0   0   0   0
HRI 103  68 101  67 /   0   0  10  10
ELN  99  59  99  60 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  95  57  94  58 /  20  20  20  20
LGD  97  61  94  61 /  10  20  20  20
GCD  95  66  93  61 /  20  20  20  20
DLS  98  67  97  66 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     WAZ028.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/83/83







000
FXUS66 KPDT 291711
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1011 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN WITH HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND
MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS. SOME MOISTURE MOVING AROUND THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TO
NORTHEAST OREGON MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
FEW-SCT MID-HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO SEE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCT-BKN HIGH BASED CUMULUS CLOUDS IN CENTRAL OREGON
INCLUDING KBDN AND KRDM IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD
NORTH AND NORTHEAST INTO THE EVENING. STRAY THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL OREGON AFTER 21Z AND COULD IMPACT KBDN AND KRDM
UNTIL 05Z. CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER TODAY SO HAVE INCLUDED VCTS
AT KBDN AND KRDM BUT IT IS STILL MARGINAL THAT TS WILL OCCUR NEAR
THOSE SITES. RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH GRADUAL DISSIPATION. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW
15 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH KDLS MAY HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20
KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  PERRY

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 244 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY
WILL ALSO BE PRESENT EACH DAY AS SURFACE TEMPS ARE IN THE 90S TO
LOWER 100S AND MODEL CROSS SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY. WAITING ON STRONGER SHORT WAVES TO PROVIDE LIFT TO GET
MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPULSES SEEN
ON SATELLITE FOR THE SHORT TERM...A COUPLE WEAK ONES VICINITY OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODELS ARE SHOWING THESE WEAK SHORT WAVES
MOVING THROUGH AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS WITH CONVECTION
CONCENTRATED MOSTLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL REMAIN HOT. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR A PORTION OF THE
WASHINGTON COLUMBIA BASIN WHERE HIGHS WILL BE 100-105. SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FAIRLY WARM AS
WELL.  94

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...EASTERN OREGON AND
WASHINGTON WILL BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL BRING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AT
TIMES. THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED BY HEATING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WEAK WAVES MAY TRIGGER NIGHTTIME
CONVECTION AS WELL. HOWEVER, MODELS DIVERGE ON DETAILS OF THE DAY TO
DAY SITUATION SO CONFIDENCE ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY IS LOW.

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. THE GFS BRINGS A WAVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHILE
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE EASTERN WASHINGTON/OREGON
BORDER. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON
FRIDAY SINCE EITHER SCENARIO HAS MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WITH A TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION. THE WAVE/UPPER LOW MOVES INTO MONTANA (GFS) OR NORTH
INTO CANADA (ECMWF) ON SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A WEAK WAVE
FORMING OFFSHORE AND MOVING INTO OREGON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THIS WILL REINFORCE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND KEEP A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN OREGON. MONDAY THE GFS KEEPS A SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND BRINGS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A WESTERLY FLOW WITH THE BEST CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL IN IDAHO AND MONTANA. THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW BOTH
SCENARIOS. KEPT A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN
DETAILS. COONFIELD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 100  68  99  67 /  10  10  10  10
ALW 101  71  99  69 /   0   0  10  10
PSC 103  68 102  68 /   0   0   0   0
YKM 100  65 100  65 /   0   0   0   0
HRI 103  68 101  67 /   0   0  10  10
ELN  99  59  99  60 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  95  57  94  58 /  20  20  20  20
LGD  97  61  94  61 /  10  20  20  20
GCD  95  66  93  61 /  20  20  20  20
DLS  98  67  97  66 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     WAZ028.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/83/83








000
FXUS66 KPDT 291537
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
836 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN WITH HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND
MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS. SOME MOISTURE MOVING AROUND THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TO
NORTHEAST OREGON MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.


&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 244 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY
WILL ALSO BE PRESENT EACH DAY AS SURFACE TEMPS ARE IN THE 90S TO
LOWER 100S AND MODEL CROSS SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY. WAITING ON STRONGER SHORT WAVES TO PROVIDE LIFT TO GET
MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPULSES SEEN
ON SATELLITE FOR THE SHORT TERM...A COUPLE WEAK ONES VICINITY OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODELS ARE SHOWING THESE WEAK SHORT WAVES
MOVING THROUGH AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS WITH CONVECTION
CONCENTRATED MOSTLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL REMAIN HOT. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR A PORTION OF THE
WASHINGTON COLUMBIA BASIN WHERE HIGHS WILL BE 100-105. SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FAIRLY WARM AS
WELL.  94

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...EASTERN OREGON AND
WASHINGTON WILL BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL BRING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AT
TIMES. THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED BY HEATING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WEAK WAVES MAY TRIGGER NIGHTTIME
CONVECTION AS WELL. HOWEVER, MODELS DIVERGE ON DETAILS OF THE DAY TO
DAY SITUATION SO CONFIDENCE ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY IS LOW.

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. THE GFS BRINGS A WAVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHILE
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE EASTERN WASHINGTON/OREGON
BORDER. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON
FRIDAY SINCE EITHER SCENARIO HAS MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WITH A TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION. THE WAVE/UPPER LOW MOVES INTO MONTANA (GFS) OR NORTH
INTO CANADA (ECMWF) ON SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A WEAK WAVE
FORMING OFFSHORE AND MOVING INTO OREGON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THIS WILL REINFORCE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND KEEP A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN OREGON. MONDAY THE GFS KEEPS A SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND BRINGS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A WESTERLY FLOW WITH THE BEST CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL IN IDAHO AND MONTANA. THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW BOTH
SCENARIOS. KEPT A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN
DETAILS. COONFIELD

12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SCT MID-HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO SEE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH BASED CUMULUS CLOUDS AT KBDN AND KRDM IN THE
AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTH AND NORTHEAST INTO THE
EVENING. STRAY THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL OREGON AFTER
21Z AND COULD IMPACT KBDN AND KRDM UNTIL 05Z. AT THIS TIME
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE OF A STORM AT THESE TWO SITES IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAF. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH KDLS MAY HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  76

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 100  68  99  67 /  10  10  10  10
ALW 101  71  99  69 /   0   0  10  10
PSC 103  68 102  68 /   0   0   0   0
YKM 100  65 100  65 /   0   0   0   0
HRI 103  68 101  67 /   0   0  10  10
ELN  99  59  99  60 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  95  57  94  58 /  20  20  20  20
LGD  97  61  94  61 /  10  20  20  20
GCD  95  66  93  61 /  20  20  20  20
DLS  98  67  97  66 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     WAZ028.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/83/83









000
FXUS66 KPDT 291537
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
836 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN WITH HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND
MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS. SOME MOISTURE MOVING AROUND THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TO
NORTHEAST OREGON MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.


&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 244 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY
WILL ALSO BE PRESENT EACH DAY AS SURFACE TEMPS ARE IN THE 90S TO
LOWER 100S AND MODEL CROSS SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY. WAITING ON STRONGER SHORT WAVES TO PROVIDE LIFT TO GET
MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPULSES SEEN
ON SATELLITE FOR THE SHORT TERM...A COUPLE WEAK ONES VICINITY OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODELS ARE SHOWING THESE WEAK SHORT WAVES
MOVING THROUGH AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS WITH CONVECTION
CONCENTRATED MOSTLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL REMAIN HOT. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR A PORTION OF THE
WASHINGTON COLUMBIA BASIN WHERE HIGHS WILL BE 100-105. SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FAIRLY WARM AS
WELL.  94

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...EASTERN OREGON AND
WASHINGTON WILL BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL BRING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AT
TIMES. THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED BY HEATING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WEAK WAVES MAY TRIGGER NIGHTTIME
CONVECTION AS WELL. HOWEVER, MODELS DIVERGE ON DETAILS OF THE DAY TO
DAY SITUATION SO CONFIDENCE ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY IS LOW.

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. THE GFS BRINGS A WAVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHILE
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE EASTERN WASHINGTON/OREGON
BORDER. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON
FRIDAY SINCE EITHER SCENARIO HAS MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WITH A TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION. THE WAVE/UPPER LOW MOVES INTO MONTANA (GFS) OR NORTH
INTO CANADA (ECMWF) ON SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A WEAK WAVE
FORMING OFFSHORE AND MOVING INTO OREGON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THIS WILL REINFORCE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND KEEP A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN OREGON. MONDAY THE GFS KEEPS A SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND BRINGS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A WESTERLY FLOW WITH THE BEST CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL IN IDAHO AND MONTANA. THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW BOTH
SCENARIOS. KEPT A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN
DETAILS. COONFIELD

12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SCT MID-HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO SEE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH BASED CUMULUS CLOUDS AT KBDN AND KRDM IN THE
AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTH AND NORTHEAST INTO THE
EVENING. STRAY THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL OREGON AFTER
21Z AND COULD IMPACT KBDN AND KRDM UNTIL 05Z. AT THIS TIME
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE OF A STORM AT THESE TWO SITES IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAF. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH KDLS MAY HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  76

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 100  68  99  67 /  10  10  10  10
ALW 101  71  99  69 /   0   0  10  10
PSC 103  68 102  68 /   0   0   0   0
YKM 100  65 100  65 /   0   0   0   0
HRI 103  68 101  67 /   0   0  10  10
ELN  99  59  99  60 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  95  57  94  58 /  20  20  20  20
LGD  97  61  94  61 /  10  20  20  20
GCD  95  66  93  61 /  20  20  20  20
DLS  98  67  97  66 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     WAZ028.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/83/83










000
FXUS66 KPDT 290944
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
244 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY
WILL ALSO BE PRESENT EACH DAY AS SURFACE TEMPS ARE IN THE 90S TO
LOWER 100S AND MODEL CROSS SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY. WAITING ON STRONGER SHORT WAVES TO PROVIDE LIFT TO GET
MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPULSES SEEN
ON SATELLITE FOR THE SHORT TERM...A COUPLE WEAK ONES VICINITY OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODELS ARE SHOWING THESE WEAK SHORT WAVES
MOVING THROUGH AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS WITH CONVECTION
CONCENTRATED MOSTLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL REMAIN HOT. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR A PORTION OF THE
WASHINGTON COLUMBIA BASIN WHERE HIGHS WILL BE 100-105. SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FAIRLY WARM AS
WELL.  94

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...EASTERN OREGON AND
WASHINGTON WILL BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL BRING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AT
TIMES. THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED BY HEATING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WEAK WAVES MAY TRIGGER NIGHTTIME
CONVECTION AS WELL. HOWEVER, MODELS DIVERGE ON DETAILS OF THE DAY TO
DAY SITUATION SO CONFIDENCE ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY IS LOW.

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. THE GFS BRINGS A WAVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHILE
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE EASTERN WASHINGTON/OREGON
BORDER. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON
FRIDAY SINCE EITHER SCENARIO HAS MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WITH A TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION. THE WAVE/UPPER LOW MOVES INTO MONTANA (GFS) OR NORTH
INTO CANADA (ECMWF) ON SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A WEAK WAVE
FORMING OFFSHORE AND MOVING INTO OREGON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THIS WILL REINFORCE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND KEEP A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN OREGON. MONDAY THE GFS KEEPS A SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND BRINGS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A WESTERLY FLOW WITH THE BEST CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL IN IDAHO AND MONTANA. THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW BOTH
SCENARIOS. KEPT A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN
DETAILS. COONFIELD

&&

.12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SCT MID-HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO SEE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH BASED CUMULUS CLOUDS AT KBDN AND KRDM IN THE
AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTH AND NORTHEAST INTO THE
EVENING. STRAY THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL OREGON AFTER
21Z AND COULD IMPACT KBDN AND KRDM UNTIL 05Z. AT THIS TIME
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE OF A STORM AT THESE TWO SITES IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAF. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH KDLS MAY HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  76

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 100  69  99  67 /  10  10  10  10
ALW 101  72 100  69 /   0   0  10  10
PSC 103  69 103  68 /   0   0   0   0
YKM 101  67  99  65 /   0   0   0   0
HRI 103  68 101  67 /   0   0  10  10
ELN 100  64  98  60 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  97  62  95  58 /  10  20  20  20
LGD  99  65  97  61 /  10  20  20  20
GCD  97  65  94  61 /  20  20  20  20
DLS  99  67  97  66 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     WAZ028.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/76/76







000
FXUS66 KPDT 290944
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
244 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY
WILL ALSO BE PRESENT EACH DAY AS SURFACE TEMPS ARE IN THE 90S TO
LOWER 100S AND MODEL CROSS SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY. WAITING ON STRONGER SHORT WAVES TO PROVIDE LIFT TO GET
MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPULSES SEEN
ON SATELLITE FOR THE SHORT TERM...A COUPLE WEAK ONES VICINITY OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODELS ARE SHOWING THESE WEAK SHORT WAVES
MOVING THROUGH AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS WITH CONVECTION
CONCENTRATED MOSTLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL REMAIN HOT. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR A PORTION OF THE
WASHINGTON COLUMBIA BASIN WHERE HIGHS WILL BE 100-105. SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FAIRLY WARM AS
WELL.  94

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...EASTERN OREGON AND
WASHINGTON WILL BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL BRING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AT
TIMES. THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED BY HEATING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WEAK WAVES MAY TRIGGER NIGHTTIME
CONVECTION AS WELL. HOWEVER, MODELS DIVERGE ON DETAILS OF THE DAY TO
DAY SITUATION SO CONFIDENCE ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY IS LOW.

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. THE GFS BRINGS A WAVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHILE
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE EASTERN WASHINGTON/OREGON
BORDER. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON
FRIDAY SINCE EITHER SCENARIO HAS MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WITH A TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION. THE WAVE/UPPER LOW MOVES INTO MONTANA (GFS) OR NORTH
INTO CANADA (ECMWF) ON SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A WEAK WAVE
FORMING OFFSHORE AND MOVING INTO OREGON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THIS WILL REINFORCE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND KEEP A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN OREGON. MONDAY THE GFS KEEPS A SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND BRINGS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A WESTERLY FLOW WITH THE BEST CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL IN IDAHO AND MONTANA. THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW BOTH
SCENARIOS. KEPT A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN
DETAILS. COONFIELD

&&

.12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SCT MID-HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO SEE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH BASED CUMULUS CLOUDS AT KBDN AND KRDM IN THE
AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTH AND NORTHEAST INTO THE
EVENING. STRAY THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL OREGON AFTER
21Z AND COULD IMPACT KBDN AND KRDM UNTIL 05Z. AT THIS TIME
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE OF A STORM AT THESE TWO SITES IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAF. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH KDLS MAY HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  76

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 100  69  99  67 /  10  10  10  10
ALW 101  72 100  69 /   0   0  10  10
PSC 103  69 103  68 /   0   0   0   0
YKM 101  67  99  65 /   0   0   0   0
HRI 103  68 101  67 /   0   0  10  10
ELN 100  64  98  60 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  97  62  95  58 /  10  20  20  20
LGD  99  65  97  61 /  10  20  20  20
GCD  97  65  94  61 /  20  20  20  20
DLS  99  67  97  66 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     WAZ028.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/76/76








000
FXUS66 KPDT 290455 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
950 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...THE LATEST RADAR WAS SHOWING A DECREASE IN CONVECTION
ACROSS THE REGION AND THE TSRA WERE REMOVED FROM THE ZONES FOR THIS
EVENING. MEANWHILE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE MAINLY OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA AND THE PRESENT SHORT
TERM FORECAST ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES APPEAR ON TRACK.

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER AND AFTER 20Z LCL MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AT TAF SITES
KRDM AND KBDN.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 450 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014/

UPDATE...THE LATEST RADAR WAS SHOWING SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER
CENTRAL OREGON AND THE ZONES WERE UPDATED TO INCLUDE THIS DURING THE
EVENING. ALSO A FEW TSRA HAD DEVELOPED NEAR EASTERN GRANT COUNTY AND
THE PRESENT SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

PREV DISC... /ISSUED 336 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE FOUR CORNER HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN. THE FLOW
AROUND THIS HIGH PLACES THE AREA UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME
MONSOONAL MOISTURE CLIPPING THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL PLACE THE SOUTH AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA UNDER AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM THREAT THROUGH
THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME PICKING UP THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE RIPPLES OR SHORTWAVES PROPAGATING AROUND THE HIGH.
THE LACK OF MODEL CONSISTENCY MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO FORECAST THE
POSSIBLE INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FROM SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE OR SCATTERED. ONE MODEL...THE GFS...IS HINTING AT A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE ARRIVING LATE TUESDAY INTO SOUTHERN OREGON AND THEN ACROSS
NORTHEAST OREGON WEDNESDAY. IF CORRECT THEN THIS COULD BE THE
TRIGGER TO ELEVATE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT. PREFER TO WAIT
ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO TO SEE IF IT REMAINS CONSISTENT IN THE
MODELS BEFORE ACTING ON IT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT AND
ABOVE NORMAL BUT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WILL DETERMINE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT THEN CLOUD COVER WOULD
PROVIDE COOLER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY. PREFERRED TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES CONSISTENT DAY TO DAY AND TWEAK AS MODELS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVES.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HOWEVER, MODELS DIVERGE ON DETAILS OF THE DAY TO DAY
SITUATION SO CONFIDENCE ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY IS ON THE LOW SIDE. A
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
BOTH THE GFS BRINGS A WAVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE
ECMWF DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER IDAHO, POSSIBLY FROM MOISTURE AND
ENERGY FROM TROPICAL STORM HERNAN CURRENTLY OFF THE BAJA MEXICO
COAST. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON
FRIDAY THOUGH WAS TEMPTED TO KEEP THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND
COLUMBIA BASIN DRY. THE WAVE/UPPER LOW MOVES INTO MONTANA ON
SATURDAY AND OUR FLOW TURNS A LITTLE MORE SOUTHERLY. THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL OREGON, THE CASCADES AS FAR NORTH AS MOUNT ADAMS AND THE
EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP A WEAK LOW
OFF OF CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND AID IN INCREASING THE MOISTURE FLOW ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HAVE
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT
FOR THE COLUMBIA BASIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH THE RIDGE
PERSISTING, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S
WITH MID 80S TO MID 90S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

FIRE WX...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND DRY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT OVERNIGHT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES TO BE MODERATE TO POOR...ESPECIALLY ALONG
RIDGETOPS AGAIN TONIGHT. HIGH LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE IS CONTINUING
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AND THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
IN CENTRAL OREGON OR OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. EACH DAY THIS WEEK...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST AS SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH THE
MONSOON FLOW. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOSTLY STAY SOUTH OF
THE WASHINGTON BORDER. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TODAY AND TOMORROW
WILL INITIALLY HAVE LIMITED PRECIPITATION. WILL MONITOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS CHECK MODEL CONSISTENCY TO DETERMINE IF ANY
RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED IN THE COMING DAYS.  COBB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  66  98  68  97 /   0  10  10  10
ALW  71 101  72 100 /   0   0   0  10
PSC  67 102  70 100 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  62 101  66  99 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  66 101  68 100 /   0   0   0  10
ELN  60 100  62  97 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  46  94  58  94 /  10  10  20  20
LGD  63  95  63  92 /  10  10  20  20
GCD  66  94  66  91 /  10  20  20  20
DLS  65  97  67  96 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/97










000
FXUS66 KPDT 290455 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
950 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...THE LATEST RADAR WAS SHOWING A DECREASE IN CONVECTION
ACROSS THE REGION AND THE TSRA WERE REMOVED FROM THE ZONES FOR THIS
EVENING. MEANWHILE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE MAINLY OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA AND THE PRESENT SHORT
TERM FORECAST ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES APPEAR ON TRACK.

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER AND AFTER 20Z LCL MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AT TAF SITES
KRDM AND KBDN.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 450 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014/

UPDATE...THE LATEST RADAR WAS SHOWING SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER
CENTRAL OREGON AND THE ZONES WERE UPDATED TO INCLUDE THIS DURING THE
EVENING. ALSO A FEW TSRA HAD DEVELOPED NEAR EASTERN GRANT COUNTY AND
THE PRESENT SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

PREV DISC... /ISSUED 336 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE FOUR CORNER HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN. THE FLOW
AROUND THIS HIGH PLACES THE AREA UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME
MONSOONAL MOISTURE CLIPPING THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL PLACE THE SOUTH AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA UNDER AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM THREAT THROUGH
THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME PICKING UP THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE RIPPLES OR SHORTWAVES PROPAGATING AROUND THE HIGH.
THE LACK OF MODEL CONSISTENCY MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO FORECAST THE
POSSIBLE INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FROM SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE OR SCATTERED. ONE MODEL...THE GFS...IS HINTING AT A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE ARRIVING LATE TUESDAY INTO SOUTHERN OREGON AND THEN ACROSS
NORTHEAST OREGON WEDNESDAY. IF CORRECT THEN THIS COULD BE THE
TRIGGER TO ELEVATE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT. PREFER TO WAIT
ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO TO SEE IF IT REMAINS CONSISTENT IN THE
MODELS BEFORE ACTING ON IT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT AND
ABOVE NORMAL BUT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WILL DETERMINE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT THEN CLOUD COVER WOULD
PROVIDE COOLER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY. PREFERRED TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES CONSISTENT DAY TO DAY AND TWEAK AS MODELS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVES.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HOWEVER, MODELS DIVERGE ON DETAILS OF THE DAY TO DAY
SITUATION SO CONFIDENCE ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY IS ON THE LOW SIDE. A
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
BOTH THE GFS BRINGS A WAVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE
ECMWF DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER IDAHO, POSSIBLY FROM MOISTURE AND
ENERGY FROM TROPICAL STORM HERNAN CURRENTLY OFF THE BAJA MEXICO
COAST. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON
FRIDAY THOUGH WAS TEMPTED TO KEEP THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND
COLUMBIA BASIN DRY. THE WAVE/UPPER LOW MOVES INTO MONTANA ON
SATURDAY AND OUR FLOW TURNS A LITTLE MORE SOUTHERLY. THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL OREGON, THE CASCADES AS FAR NORTH AS MOUNT ADAMS AND THE
EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP A WEAK LOW
OFF OF CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND AID IN INCREASING THE MOISTURE FLOW ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HAVE
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT
FOR THE COLUMBIA BASIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH THE RIDGE
PERSISTING, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S
WITH MID 80S TO MID 90S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

FIRE WX...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND DRY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT OVERNIGHT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES TO BE MODERATE TO POOR...ESPECIALLY ALONG
RIDGETOPS AGAIN TONIGHT. HIGH LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE IS CONTINUING
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AND THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
IN CENTRAL OREGON OR OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. EACH DAY THIS WEEK...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST AS SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH THE
MONSOON FLOW. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOSTLY STAY SOUTH OF
THE WASHINGTON BORDER. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TODAY AND TOMORROW
WILL INITIALLY HAVE LIMITED PRECIPITATION. WILL MONITOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS CHECK MODEL CONSISTENCY TO DETERMINE IF ANY
RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED IN THE COMING DAYS.  COBB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  66  98  68  97 /   0  10  10  10
ALW  71 101  72 100 /   0   0   0  10
PSC  67 102  70 100 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  62 101  66  99 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  66 101  68 100 /   0   0   0  10
ELN  60 100  62  97 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  46  94  58  94 /  10  10  20  20
LGD  63  95  63  92 /  10  10  20  20
GCD  66  94  66  91 /  10  20  20  20
DLS  65  97  67  96 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/97









000
FXUS66 KPDT 282355 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
450 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...THE LATEST RADAR WAS SHOWING SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER
CENTRAL OREGON AND THE ZONES WERE UPDATED TO INCLUDE THIS DURING THE
EVENING. ALSO A FEW TSRA HAD DEVELOPED NEAR EASTERN GRANT COUNTY AND
THE PRESENT SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 336 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE FOUR CORNER HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN. THE FLOW
AROUND THIS HIGH PLACES THE AREA UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME
MONSOONAL MOISTURE CLIPPING THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL PLACE THE SOUTH AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA UNDER AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM THREAT THROUGH
THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME PICKING UP THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE RIPPLES OR SHORTWAVES PROPAGATING AROUND THE HIGH.
THE LACK OF MODEL CONSISTENCY MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO FORECAST THE
POSSIBLE INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FROM SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE OR SCATTERED. ONE MODEL...THE GFS...IS HINTING AT A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE ARRIVING LATE TUESDAY INTO SOUTHERN OREGON AND THEN ACROSS
NORTHEAST OREGON WEDNESDAY. IF CORRECT THEN THIS COULD BE THE
TRIGGER TO ELEVATE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT. PREFER TO WAIT
ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO TO SEE IF IT REMAINS CONSISTENT IN THE
MODELS BEFORE ACTING ON IT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT AND
ABOVE NORMAL BUT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WILL DETERMINE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT THEN CLOUD COVER WOULD
PROVIDE COOLER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY. PREFERRED TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES CONSISTENT DAY TO DAY AND TWEAK AS MODELS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVES.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HOWEVER, MODELS DIVERGE ON DETAILS OF THE DAY TO DAY
SITUATION SO CONFIDENCE ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY IS ON THE LOW SIDE. A
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
BOTH THE GFS BRINGS A WAVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE
ECMWF DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER IDAHO, POSSIBLY FROM MOISTURE AND
ENERGY FROM TROPICAL STORM HERNAN CURRENTLY OFF THE BAJA MEXICO
COAST. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON
FRIDAY THOUGH WAS TEMPTED TO KEEP THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND
COLUMBIA BASIN DRY. THE WAVE/UPPER LOW MOVES INTO MONTANA ON
SATURDAY AND OUR FLOW TURNS A LITTLE MORE SOUTHERLY. THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL OREGON, THE CASCADES AS FAR NORTH AS MOUNT ADAMS AND THE
EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP A WEAK LOW
OFF OF CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND AID IN INCREASING THE MOISTURE FLOW ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HAVE
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT
FOR THE COLUMBIA BASIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH THE RIDGE
PERSISTING, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S
WITH MID 80S TO MID 90S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH 00Z TOMORROW. AN EXCEPTION
WILL BE FEW-SCT HIGH BASED CUMULUS ABOVE 10000 FEET AGL AT KBDN AND
KRDM. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS, POSSIBLY AFFECTING KBDN AND KRDM, BUT THE PROBABILITY WAS
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THOSE TAFS. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH KDLS MAY HAVE SOME
GUSTS TO 20 KTS EARLY THIS EVENING AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. PERRY

FIRE WX...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND DRY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT OVERNIGHT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES TO BE MODERATE TO POOR...ESPECIALLY ALONG
RIDGETOPS AGAIN TONIGHT. HIGH LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE IS CONTINUING
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AND THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
IN CENTRAL OREGON OR OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. EACH DAY THIS WEEK...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST AS SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH THE
MONSOON FLOW. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOSTLY STAY SOUTH OF
THE WASHINGTON BORDER. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TODAY AND TOMORROW
WILL INITIALLY HAVE LIMITED PRECIPITATION. WILL MONITOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS CHECK MODEL CONSISTENCY TO DETERMINE IF ANY
RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED IN THE COMING DAYS.  COBB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  66  98  68  97 /   0  10  10  10
ALW  71 101  72 100 /   0   0   0  10
PSC  67 102  70 100 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  62 101  66  99 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  66 101  68 100 /   0   0   0  10
ELN  60 100  62  97 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  46  94  58  94 /  20  10  20  20
LGD  63  95  63  92 /  20  10  20  20
GCD  66  94  66  91 /  20  20  20  20
DLS  65  97  67  96 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/









000
FXUS66 KPDT 282355 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
450 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...THE LATEST RADAR WAS SHOWING SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER
CENTRAL OREGON AND THE ZONES WERE UPDATED TO INCLUDE THIS DURING THE
EVENING. ALSO A FEW TSRA HAD DEVELOPED NEAR EASTERN GRANT COUNTY AND
THE PRESENT SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 336 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE FOUR CORNER HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN. THE FLOW
AROUND THIS HIGH PLACES THE AREA UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME
MONSOONAL MOISTURE CLIPPING THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL PLACE THE SOUTH AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA UNDER AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM THREAT THROUGH
THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME PICKING UP THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE RIPPLES OR SHORTWAVES PROPAGATING AROUND THE HIGH.
THE LACK OF MODEL CONSISTENCY MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO FORECAST THE
POSSIBLE INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FROM SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE OR SCATTERED. ONE MODEL...THE GFS...IS HINTING AT A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE ARRIVING LATE TUESDAY INTO SOUTHERN OREGON AND THEN ACROSS
NORTHEAST OREGON WEDNESDAY. IF CORRECT THEN THIS COULD BE THE
TRIGGER TO ELEVATE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT. PREFER TO WAIT
ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO TO SEE IF IT REMAINS CONSISTENT IN THE
MODELS BEFORE ACTING ON IT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT AND
ABOVE NORMAL BUT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WILL DETERMINE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT THEN CLOUD COVER WOULD
PROVIDE COOLER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY. PREFERRED TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES CONSISTENT DAY TO DAY AND TWEAK AS MODELS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVES.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HOWEVER, MODELS DIVERGE ON DETAILS OF THE DAY TO DAY
SITUATION SO CONFIDENCE ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY IS ON THE LOW SIDE. A
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
BOTH THE GFS BRINGS A WAVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE
ECMWF DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER IDAHO, POSSIBLY FROM MOISTURE AND
ENERGY FROM TROPICAL STORM HERNAN CURRENTLY OFF THE BAJA MEXICO
COAST. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON
FRIDAY THOUGH WAS TEMPTED TO KEEP THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND
COLUMBIA BASIN DRY. THE WAVE/UPPER LOW MOVES INTO MONTANA ON
SATURDAY AND OUR FLOW TURNS A LITTLE MORE SOUTHERLY. THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL OREGON, THE CASCADES AS FAR NORTH AS MOUNT ADAMS AND THE
EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP A WEAK LOW
OFF OF CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND AID IN INCREASING THE MOISTURE FLOW ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HAVE
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT
FOR THE COLUMBIA BASIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH THE RIDGE
PERSISTING, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S
WITH MID 80S TO MID 90S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH 00Z TOMORROW. AN EXCEPTION
WILL BE FEW-SCT HIGH BASED CUMULUS ABOVE 10000 FEET AGL AT KBDN AND
KRDM. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS, POSSIBLY AFFECTING KBDN AND KRDM, BUT THE PROBABILITY WAS
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THOSE TAFS. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH KDLS MAY HAVE SOME
GUSTS TO 20 KTS EARLY THIS EVENING AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. PERRY

FIRE WX...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND DRY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT OVERNIGHT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES TO BE MODERATE TO POOR...ESPECIALLY ALONG
RIDGETOPS AGAIN TONIGHT. HIGH LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE IS CONTINUING
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AND THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
IN CENTRAL OREGON OR OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. EACH DAY THIS WEEK...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST AS SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH THE
MONSOON FLOW. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOSTLY STAY SOUTH OF
THE WASHINGTON BORDER. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TODAY AND TOMORROW
WILL INITIALLY HAVE LIMITED PRECIPITATION. WILL MONITOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS CHECK MODEL CONSISTENCY TO DETERMINE IF ANY
RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED IN THE COMING DAYS.  COBB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  66  98  68  97 /   0  10  10  10
ALW  71 101  72 100 /   0   0   0  10
PSC  67 102  70 100 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  62 101  66  99 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  66 101  68 100 /   0   0   0  10
ELN  60 100  62  97 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  46  94  58  94 /  20  10  20  20
LGD  63  95  63  92 /  20  10  20  20
GCD  66  94  66  91 /  20  20  20  20
DLS  65  97  67  96 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/










000
FXUS66 KPDT 282236 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
336 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE FOUR CORNER HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN. THE FLOW
AROUND THIS HIGH PLACES THE AREA UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME
MONSOONAL MOISTURE CLIPPING THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL PLACE THE SOUTH AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA UNDER AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM THREAT THROUGH
THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME PICKING UP THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE RIPPLES OR SHORTWAVES PROPAGATING AROUND THE HIGH.
THE LACK OF MODEL CONSISTENCY MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO FORECAST THE
POSSIBLE INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FROM SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE OR SCATTERED. ONE MODEL...THE GFS...IS HINTING AT A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE ARRIVING LATE TUESDAY INTO SOUTHERN OREGON AND THEN ACROSS
NORTHEAST OREGON WEDNESDAY. IF CORRECT THEN THIS COULD BE THE
TRIGGER TO ELEVATE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT. PREFER TO WAIT
ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO TO SEE IF IT REMAINS CONSISTENT IN THE
MODELS BEFORE ACTING ON IT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT AND
ABOVE NORMAL BUT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WILL DETERMINE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT THEN CLOUD COVER WOULD
PROVIDE COOLER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY. PREFERRED TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES CONSISTENT DAY TO DAY AND TWEAK AS MODELS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVES.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HOWEVER, MODELS DIVERGE ON DETAILS OF THE DAY TO DAY
SITUATION SO CONFIDENCE ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY IS ON THE LOW SIDE. A
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
BOTH THE GFS BRINGS A WAVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE
ECMWF DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER IDAHO, POSSIBLY FROM MOISTURE AND
ENERGY FROM TROPICAL STORM HERNAN CURRENTLY OFF THE BAJA MEXICO
COAST. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON
FRIDAY THOUGH WAS TEMPTED TO KEEP THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND
COLUMBIA BASIN DRY. THE WAVE/UPPER LOW MOVES INTO MONTANA ON
SATURDAY AND OUR FLOW TURNS A LITTLE MORE SOUTHERLY. THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL OREGON, THE CASCADES AS FAR NORTH AS MOUNT ADAMS AND THE
EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP A WEAK LOW
OFF OF CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND AID IN INCREASING THE MOISTURE FLOW ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HAVE
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT
FOR THE COLUMBIA BASIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH THE RIDGE
PERSISTING, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S
WITH MID 80S TO MID 90S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY


&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH 00Z TOMORROW. AN EXCEPTION
WILL BE FEW-SCT HIGH BASED CUMULUS ABOVE 10000 FEET AGL AT KBDN AND
KRDM. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS, POSSIBLY AFFECTING KBDN AND KRDM, BUT THE PROBABILITY WAS
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THOSE TAFS. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH KDLS MAY HAVE SOME
GUSTS TO 20 KTS EARLY THIS EVENING AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. PERRY


&&

.FIRE WX...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND DRY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT OVERNIGHT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES TO BE MODERATE TO POOR...ESPECIALLY ALONG
RIDGETOPS AGAIN TONIGHT. HIGH LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE IS CONTINUING
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AND THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
IN CENTRAL OREGON OR OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. EACH DAY THIS WEEK...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST AS SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH THE
MONSOON FLOW. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOSTLY STAY SOUTH OF
THE WASHINGTON BORDER. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TODAY AND TOMORROW
WILL INITIALLY HAVE LIMITED PRECIPITATION. WILL MONITOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS CHECK MODEL CONSISTENCY TO DETERMINE IF ANY
RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED IN THE COMING DAYS.  COBB


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  66  98  68  97 /   0  10  10  10
ALW  71 101  72 100 /   0   0   0  10
PSC  67 102  70 100 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  62 100  66  99 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  66 101  68 100 /   0   0   0  10
ELN  60  96  62  97 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  46  94  58  94 /  10  10  20  20
LGD  63  94  63  92 /  20  10  20  20
GCD  66  94  66  91 /  20  20  20  20
DLS  65  96  67  96 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/83/83













000
FXUS66 KPDT 282236 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
336 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE FOUR CORNER HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN. THE FLOW
AROUND THIS HIGH PLACES THE AREA UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME
MONSOONAL MOISTURE CLIPPING THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL PLACE THE SOUTH AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA UNDER AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM THREAT THROUGH
THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME PICKING UP THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE RIPPLES OR SHORTWAVES PROPAGATING AROUND THE HIGH.
THE LACK OF MODEL CONSISTENCY MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO FORECAST THE
POSSIBLE INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FROM SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE OR SCATTERED. ONE MODEL...THE GFS...IS HINTING AT A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE ARRIVING LATE TUESDAY INTO SOUTHERN OREGON AND THEN ACROSS
NORTHEAST OREGON WEDNESDAY. IF CORRECT THEN THIS COULD BE THE
TRIGGER TO ELEVATE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT. PREFER TO WAIT
ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO TO SEE IF IT REMAINS CONSISTENT IN THE
MODELS BEFORE ACTING ON IT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT AND
ABOVE NORMAL BUT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WILL DETERMINE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT THEN CLOUD COVER WOULD
PROVIDE COOLER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY. PREFERRED TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES CONSISTENT DAY TO DAY AND TWEAK AS MODELS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVES.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HOWEVER, MODELS DIVERGE ON DETAILS OF THE DAY TO DAY
SITUATION SO CONFIDENCE ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY IS ON THE LOW SIDE. A
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
BOTH THE GFS BRINGS A WAVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE
ECMWF DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER IDAHO, POSSIBLY FROM MOISTURE AND
ENERGY FROM TROPICAL STORM HERNAN CURRENTLY OFF THE BAJA MEXICO
COAST. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON
FRIDAY THOUGH WAS TEMPTED TO KEEP THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND
COLUMBIA BASIN DRY. THE WAVE/UPPER LOW MOVES INTO MONTANA ON
SATURDAY AND OUR FLOW TURNS A LITTLE MORE SOUTHERLY. THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL OREGON, THE CASCADES AS FAR NORTH AS MOUNT ADAMS AND THE
EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP A WEAK LOW
OFF OF CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND AID IN INCREASING THE MOISTURE FLOW ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HAVE
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT
FOR THE COLUMBIA BASIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH THE RIDGE
PERSISTING, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S
WITH MID 80S TO MID 90S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY


&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH 00Z TOMORROW. AN EXCEPTION
WILL BE FEW-SCT HIGH BASED CUMULUS ABOVE 10000 FEET AGL AT KBDN AND
KRDM. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS, POSSIBLY AFFECTING KBDN AND KRDM, BUT THE PROBABILITY WAS
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THOSE TAFS. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH KDLS MAY HAVE SOME
GUSTS TO 20 KTS EARLY THIS EVENING AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. PERRY


&&

.FIRE WX...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND DRY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT OVERNIGHT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES TO BE MODERATE TO POOR...ESPECIALLY ALONG
RIDGETOPS AGAIN TONIGHT. HIGH LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE IS CONTINUING
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AND THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
IN CENTRAL OREGON OR OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. EACH DAY THIS WEEK...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST AS SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH THE
MONSOON FLOW. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOSTLY STAY SOUTH OF
THE WASHINGTON BORDER. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TODAY AND TOMORROW
WILL INITIALLY HAVE LIMITED PRECIPITATION. WILL MONITOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS CHECK MODEL CONSISTENCY TO DETERMINE IF ANY
RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED IN THE COMING DAYS.  COBB


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  66  98  68  97 /   0  10  10  10
ALW  71 101  72 100 /   0   0   0  10
PSC  67 102  70 100 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  62 100  66  99 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  66 101  68 100 /   0   0   0  10
ELN  60  96  62  97 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  46  94  58  94 /  10  10  20  20
LGD  63  94  63  92 /  20  10  20  20
GCD  66  94  66  91 /  20  20  20  20
DLS  65  96  67  96 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/83/83












000
FXUS66 KPDT 282129
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
230 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE FOUR CORNER HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN. THE FLOW
AROUND THIS HIGH PLACES THE AREA UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME
MONSOONAL MOISTURE CLIPPING THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL PLACE THE SOUTH AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA UNDER AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM THREAT THROUGH
THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME PICKING UP THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE RIPPLES OR SHORTWAVES PROPAGATING AROUND THE HIGH.
THE LACK OF MODEL CONSISTENCY MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO FORECAST THE
POSSIBLE INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FROM SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE OR SCATTERED. ONE MODEL...THE GFS...IS HINTING AT A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE ARRIVING LATE TUESDAY INTO SOUTHERN OREGON AND THEN ACROSS
NORTHEAST OREGON WEDNESDAY. IF CORRECT THEN THIS COULD BE THE
TRIGGER TO ELEVATE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT. PREFER TO WAIT
ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO TO SEE IF IT REMAINS CONSISTENT IN THE
MODELS BEFORE ACTING ON IT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT AND
ABOVE NORMAL BUT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WILL DETERMINE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT THEN CLOUD COVER WOULD
PROVIDE COOLER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY. PREFERRED TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES CONSISTENT DAY TO DAY AND TWEAK AS MODELS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVES.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HOWEVER, MODELS DIVERGE ON DETAILS OF THE DAY TO DAY
SITUATION SO CONFIDENCE ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY IS ON THE LOW SIDE. A
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
BOTH THE GFS BRINGS A WAVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE
ECMWF DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER IDAHO, POSSIBLY FROM MOISTURE AND
ENERGY FROM TROPICAL STORM HERNAN CURRENTLY OFF THE BAJA MEXICO
COAST. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON
FRIDAY THOUGH WAS TEMPTED TO KEEP THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND
COLUMBIA BASIN DRY. THE WAVE/UPPER LOW MOVES INTO MONTANA ON
SATURDAY AND OUR FLOW TURNS A LITTLE MORE SOUTHERLY. THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL OREGON, THE CASCADES AS FAR NORTH AS MOUNT ADAMS AND THE
EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP A WEAK LOW
OFF OF CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND AID IN INCREASING THE MOISTURE FLOW ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HAVE
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT
FOR THE COLUMBIA BASIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH THE RIDGE
PERSISTING, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S
WITH MID 80S TO MID 90S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY


&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY.
FEW-SCT HIGH BASED CUMULUS ABOVE 10000 FEET AGL IS POSSIBLE AFTER
21Z AT KBDN AND KRDM. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
CENTRAL OREGON AND THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS, POSSIBLY AFFECTING
KBDN AND KRDM, BUT THE PROBABILITY WAS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THOSE
TAFS. FEW-SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ABOVE 12000 FEET AGL WILL
BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA AFTER 12Z TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH KDLS MAY
HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PERRY


&&

.FIRE WX...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND DRY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT OVERNIGHT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES TO BE MODERATE TO POOR...ESPECIALLY ALONG
RIDGETOPS AGAIN TONIGHT. HIGH LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE IS CONTINUING
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AND THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
IN CENTRAL OREGON OR OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. EACH DAY THIS WEEK...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST AS SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH THE
MONSOON FLOW. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOSTLY STAY SOUTH OF
THE WASHINGTON BORDER. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TODAY AND TOMORROW
WILL INITIALLY HAVE LIMITED PRECIPITATION. WILL MONITOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS CHECK MODEL CONSISTENCY TO DETERMINE IF ANY
RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED IN THE COMING DAYS.  COBB


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  66  98  68  97 /   0  10  10  10
ALW  71 101  72 100 /   0   0   0  10
PSC  67 102  70 100 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  62 100  66  99 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  66 101  68 100 /   0   0   0  10
ELN  60  96  62  97 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  46  94  58  94 /  10  10  20  20
LGD  63  94  63  92 /  20  10  20  20
GCD  66  94  66  91 /  20  20  20  20
DLS  65  96  67  96 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/83/83









000
FXUS66 KPDT 282129
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
230 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE FOUR CORNER HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN. THE FLOW
AROUND THIS HIGH PLACES THE AREA UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME
MONSOONAL MOISTURE CLIPPING THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL PLACE THE SOUTH AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA UNDER AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM THREAT THROUGH
THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME PICKING UP THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE RIPPLES OR SHORTWAVES PROPAGATING AROUND THE HIGH.
THE LACK OF MODEL CONSISTENCY MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO FORECAST THE
POSSIBLE INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FROM SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE OR SCATTERED. ONE MODEL...THE GFS...IS HINTING AT A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE ARRIVING LATE TUESDAY INTO SOUTHERN OREGON AND THEN ACROSS
NORTHEAST OREGON WEDNESDAY. IF CORRECT THEN THIS COULD BE THE
TRIGGER TO ELEVATE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT. PREFER TO WAIT
ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO TO SEE IF IT REMAINS CONSISTENT IN THE
MODELS BEFORE ACTING ON IT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT AND
ABOVE NORMAL BUT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WILL DETERMINE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT THEN CLOUD COVER WOULD
PROVIDE COOLER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY. PREFERRED TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES CONSISTENT DAY TO DAY AND TWEAK AS MODELS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVES.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HOWEVER, MODELS DIVERGE ON DETAILS OF THE DAY TO DAY
SITUATION SO CONFIDENCE ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY IS ON THE LOW SIDE. A
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
BOTH THE GFS BRINGS A WAVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE
ECMWF DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER IDAHO, POSSIBLY FROM MOISTURE AND
ENERGY FROM TROPICAL STORM HERNAN CURRENTLY OFF THE BAJA MEXICO
COAST. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON
FRIDAY THOUGH WAS TEMPTED TO KEEP THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND
COLUMBIA BASIN DRY. THE WAVE/UPPER LOW MOVES INTO MONTANA ON
SATURDAY AND OUR FLOW TURNS A LITTLE MORE SOUTHERLY. THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL OREGON, THE CASCADES AS FAR NORTH AS MOUNT ADAMS AND THE
EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP A WEAK LOW
OFF OF CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND AID IN INCREASING THE MOISTURE FLOW ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HAVE
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT
FOR THE COLUMBIA BASIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH THE RIDGE
PERSISTING, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S
WITH MID 80S TO MID 90S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY


&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY.
FEW-SCT HIGH BASED CUMULUS ABOVE 10000 FEET AGL IS POSSIBLE AFTER
21Z AT KBDN AND KRDM. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
CENTRAL OREGON AND THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS, POSSIBLY AFFECTING
KBDN AND KRDM, BUT THE PROBABILITY WAS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THOSE
TAFS. FEW-SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ABOVE 12000 FEET AGL WILL
BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA AFTER 12Z TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH KDLS MAY
HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PERRY


&&

.FIRE WX...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND DRY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT OVERNIGHT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES TO BE MODERATE TO POOR...ESPECIALLY ALONG
RIDGETOPS AGAIN TONIGHT. HIGH LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE IS CONTINUING
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AND THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
IN CENTRAL OREGON OR OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. EACH DAY THIS WEEK...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST AS SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH THE
MONSOON FLOW. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOSTLY STAY SOUTH OF
THE WASHINGTON BORDER. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TODAY AND TOMORROW
WILL INITIALLY HAVE LIMITED PRECIPITATION. WILL MONITOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS CHECK MODEL CONSISTENCY TO DETERMINE IF ANY
RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED IN THE COMING DAYS.  COBB


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  66  98  68  97 /   0  10  10  10
ALW  71 101  72 100 /   0   0   0  10
PSC  67 102  70 100 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  62 100  66  99 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  66 101  68 100 /   0   0   0  10
ELN  60  96  62  97 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  46  94  58  94 /  10  10  20  20
LGD  63  94  63  92 /  20  10  20  20
GCD  66  94  66  91 /  20  20  20  20
DLS  65  96  67  96 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/83/83










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